殼牌 (SHEL) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Shell's first quarter 2025 financial results announcement. Shell's CFO, Sinead Gorman, will present the results then host a Q&A session alongside Shell's CEO, Wael Sawan. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎閱讀殼牌 2025 年第一季財務業績公告。殼牌財務長 Sinead Gorman 將公佈結果，然後與殼牌執行長 Wael Sawan 一起主持問答環節。（操作員指示）

We will now begin the presentation.

我們現在開始演講。

Welcome to Shell's first-quarter 2021 results. Just over five weeks ago at our Capital Markets Day in New York, Wael and I outlined the Shell investment case and our longer-term vision for the company. Our aim is to continue to deliver more value with less emissions, whilst rewarding our shareholders with consistency, delivering both competitive and resilient returns.

歡迎閱讀殼牌 2021 年第一季業績。就在五週前，在紐約舉行的資本市場日上，瓦伊爾和我概述了殼牌的投資案例以及我們對該公司的長期願景。我們的目標是繼續以更少的排放創造更多的價值，同時持續回報我們的股東，提供具有競爭力和韌性的回報。

And in Q1, we continue to make good progress. And as we look forward, we remain confident due to both our portfolio strength and an organization which continues to deliver, guided by our principles of performance, discipline, and simplification.

在第一季度，我們繼續取得良好進展。展望未來，我們仍然充滿信心，因為我們擁有強大的投資組合，並且我們的組織將繼續以績效、紀律和簡化的原則為指導。

What we hope is now clear is that we do what we say. As we said at Capital Markets Day, we met our CMD23 financial targets for 2025 almost a year early. And as a result, we've set new financial targets, whilst we were staying firm on our carbon targets and ambition.

我們現在希望明確的是，我們會說到做到。正如我們在資本市場日所說的那樣，我們提前近一年實現了 2025 年 CMD23 財務目標。因此，我們設定了新的財務目標，同時堅定我們的碳排放目標和野心。

Repositioning the portfolio is a key step towards achieving our targets, and we have made meaningful progress in the first few months of 2025. We've completed our divestments of the Energy and Chemicals Park in Singapore and in onshore Nigeria.

重新定位投資組合是實現我們目標的關鍵一步，我們在 2025 年的前幾個月取得了有意義的進展。我們已完成新加坡能源化工園區和奈及利亞境內能源化工園區的資產剝離。

And as we said we would, we are growing, but in a disciplined way. We completed the acquisition of Pavilion Energy, strengthening our integrated gas portfolio by further expanding our LNG trading and optimization capabilities.

正如我們所說的那樣，我們正在成長，但以一種有紀律的方式。我們完成了對 Pavilion Energy 的收購，透過進一步擴大我們的液化天然氣交易和優化能力，增強了我們的綜合天然氣組合。

In Upstream, we signed an agreement to increase our working interest in Ursa in the Gulf of America. We already operate this asset, and we're pleased to be able to further consolidate our leading deepwater position.

在上游，我們簽署了一項協議，增加我們在美國灣 Ursa 的作業權益。我們已經經營這項資產，我們很高興能夠進一步鞏固我們領先的深水地位。

On projects, we took two key final investment decisions. The first is Gato do Mato in Brazil. This will be a Shell-operated asset in the Santos Basin, where we are the largest foreign producer. The second is Phase 2 of the Northern Lights carbon capture and storage development in Norway. This will increase the project's capacity from 1.5 million tonnes to more than 5 million tonnes of CO2 a year by 2028.

在專案方面，我們做出了兩個關鍵的最終投資決策。第一隻鳥是巴西的 Gato do Mato。這將是殼牌在桑托斯盆地營運的資產，我們是該盆地最大的外國生產商。第二個是挪威北極光碳捕獲和儲存開發計畫第二階段。到 2028 年，該項目的二氧化碳排放量將從每年 150 萬噸增加到 500 多萬噸。

And on operations. In the first few months of 2025, we've achieved significant milestones. I want to highlight just two of them. First, our Penguins FPSO in the UK North Sea is now online and supplying much-needed natural gas to the region. This modern FPSO is expected to extend the life of the field by up to 20 years. And second, Dover in the Gulf of America has started production. This is the second subsea tieback to our Appomattox hub after Rydberg, which came online last year.

以及營運方面。2025 年頭幾個月，我們取得了重大的里程碑。我只想強調其中兩個。首先，我們位於英國北海的 Penguins FPSO 現已上線並向該地區供應急需的天然氣。這艘現代化的FPSO預計將使油田的使用壽命延長20年。第二，美國灣的多佛油田已開始生產。這是繼去年上線的 Rydberg 之後，我們阿波馬托克斯樞紐的第二條海底回接線。

Now let's move to the financial results for the quarter. We delivered solid results in a price environment that was relatively stable compared with last quarter. Our adjusted earnings were $5.6 billion, up 52% compared with Q4; and we generated $11.9 billion of cash flow from operations, excluding working capital. Consistent with the outflows seen in the first quarter of recent years, working capital in Q1 was an outflow of $2.7 billion.

現在讓我們來看看本季的財務表現。與上一季相比，我們在相對穩定的價格環境下取得了穩健的業績。我們的調整後收益為 56 億美元，與第四季相比成長 52%；我們的經營活動產生的現金流（不包括營運資本）為 119 億美元。與近年來第一季的資金流出情況一致，第一季營運資金流出 27 億美元。

Now turning to our businesses. Integrated Gas production was higher than in Q4 as the turnaround at Pearl GTL was completed. However, liquefaction volumes were lower because of unplanned outages in Australia. Our LNG trading and optimization results were in line with Q4, and that's despite the higher noncash paper losses recorded, which we highlighted will be seen across the first three quarters of the year.

現在談談我們的業務。由於 Pearl GTL 的檢修完成，綜合天然氣產量高於第四季。然而，由於澳洲發生意外停產，液化量較低。我們的液化天然氣交易和優化結果與第四季度一致，儘管記錄的非現金紙面損失較高，我們強調這將在今年前三個季度出現。

Upstream had a strong Q1 with continued high controllable availability. Norway, Nigeria offshore, and Kazakhstan all delivered above 98%. In Marketing, Mobility and Lubricants performed very well as both continue to further increase premium product margins. However, the low carbon option businesses continue to operate in a difficult macro environment, which we highlighted at CMD.

上游第一季表現強勁，可控可用性持續保持在高水準。挪威、奈及利亞近海和哈薩克的交付率均超過 98%。在行銷方面，行動性和潤滑油表現非常出色，因為它們都繼續進一步提高高端產品的利潤率。然而，低碳選擇業務繼續在艱難的宏觀環境中運營，這一點我們在 CMD 中強調。

Chemicals also continued to see low margins this quarter. But with the divestment in Singapore, we expect that the chemicals earnings contribution will improve. In Products, the contribution from trading and supply improved relative to the previous quarter, almost at similar levels to Q2 and Q3 of last year.

本季化學品的利潤率也持續較低。但隨著新加坡業務的撤資，我們預期化學品業務的獲利貢獻將會提高。在產品方面，貿易和供應的貢獻較上一季有所改善，幾乎與去年第二季和第三季的水平相同。

So overall, a solid set of results in the first quarter of 2025. We are now into the second quarter, and there are significant macro uncertainties, but our approach remains the same. We are following through on the long-term direction we set at Capital Markets Day. At times like this, the importance of a strong balance sheet and a robust financial framework are critical, and we have consciously positioned the company over the last few years, leaving us well placed.

整體而言，2025 年第一季將取得一系列穩健的業績。現在我們已經進入第二季度，宏觀不確定性很大，但我們的方法保持不變。我們正在遵循資本市場日設定的長期方向。在這種時候，強勁的資產負債表和穩健的財務框架至關重要，過去幾年我們有意識地對公司進行了定位，使我們處於有利地位。

In Q1, our net debt position increased, reflecting lease additions from Pavilion and a drawdown from the loan facilities provided at the completion of the Nigeria onshore divestment. These are all knowing items, and our balance sheet continues to be one of the strongest in the industry.

在第一季度，我們的淨債務狀況有所增加，反映了 Pavilion 的租賃增加以及尼日利亞境內撤資完成後提供的貸款額度的減少。這些都是眾所周知的事情，我們的資產負債表仍然是業內最強勁的資產負債表之一。

Moving on to shareholder distributions. Today, we have announced a $3.5 billion share buyback program, which we expect to complete by the time of our Q2 results announcement. This makes it the 14th consecutive quarter in which we have announced $3 billion or more in buybacks.

繼續討論股東分配。今天，我們宣布了一項 35 億美元的股票回購計劃，預計該計劃將在第二季業績公佈時完成。這是我們連續第 14 季宣布 30 億美元或更多的回購。

With this new $3.5 billion share buyback program, we are well within our enhanced shareholder distribution range of 40% to 50% of CFFO, a range that you can expect us to deliver on through the cycle given our low distribution breakeven, $40 Brent for dividends, and buybacks continuing at $50.

透過這項新的 35 億美元股票回購計劃，我們完全符合增強的股東分配範圍，即 CFFO 的 40% 至 50%，考慮到我們的低分配盈虧平衡點、40 美元的布倫特原油股息以及持續 50 美元的回購價格，您可以預期我們在整個週期內都能實現這一目標。

To summarize, in Q1, we delivered a solid set of results in a relatively stable price environment. Our portfolio transformation is progressing with several major achievements during the first few months of 2025.

總而言之，在第一季度，我們在相對穩定的價格環境下取得了一系列穩健的業績。我們的投資組合轉型正在推進，並在 2025 年頭幾個月取得了幾項重大成就。

Looking ahead, we are confident in the direction we have set and the strength of Shell to deliver for our shareholders through an uncertain macro. We will continue to focus on operational performance, be disciplined with cost and CapEx spend and drive competitive and resilient returns, and most importantly, deliver on what we say.

展望未來，我們對我們設定的方向和殼牌在宏觀經濟不確定的情況下為股東帶來收益的實力充滿信心。我們將繼續專注於營運績效，嚴格控製成本和資本支出，推動具有競爭力和彈性的回報，最重要的是兌現我們的承諾。

And finally, we hope that shareholders who are able to attend, either virtually or in person, will join us for our 2025 Annual General Meeting, which will take place on May 20. Thank you.

最後，我們希望能夠以線上或線下方式出席的股東能夠參加將於 5 月 20 日舉行的 2025 年年度股東大會。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Thank you very much for joining us today. We hope that after watching this presentation, you've seen how we delivered a solid set of results in the first quarter, how we made meaningful progress in repositioning our portfolio to deliver on our targets, and the strength of the company to deliver through an uncertain macro.

非常感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望，在觀看本次演示後，您能夠看到我們如何在第一季取得了穩健的業績，我們如何在重新定位我們的產品組合以實現我們的目標方面取得了有意義的進展，以及公司在宏觀經濟不確定的情況下實現目標的實力。

Today, Sinead and I will be answering your questions. And now please, could we have just one or two questions each so that everyone gets the opportunity.

今天，Sinead 和我將回答你們的問題。現在，請允許我們每人問一兩個問題，以便每個人都有機會提問。

And with that, could we have the first one, please, Luke?

那麼，盧克，我們可以先問第一個問題嗎？

Josh Stone, UBS.

瑞銀的喬許史東。

Two questions, please. While you talked in the past about being or wanting to be more countercyclical in how you allocate capital. And you've clearly demonstrated that in the good times by being quite prudent with your capital spending. It just strikes -- in a downturn or potential downturn, it requires a lot more resolve to start spending more money or maybe sustaining the buyback.

請問兩個問題。您過去曾談到過，或希望在資本配置上更加逆週期。在經濟繁榮時期，你們對資本支出非常謹慎，這清楚地證明了這一點。它只是打擊——在經濟低迷或潛在低迷時期，需要更大的決心才能開始花費更多資金或維持回購。

So just talk about your latest views on that and commitments to being more countercyclical. And then same question on Integrated Gas. Trading looks to be a decent quarter this time around, particularly if I adjust for the hedging losses.

那麼，請談談您對此的最新看法以及對逆週期調節的承諾。然後關於綜合瓦斯的問題也是一樣的。本季的交易看起來不錯，特別是如果我調整對沖損失的話。

So some of your peers have talked about it being more difficult to trade in gas because of the event risk and more jitteriness in the markets. So what's been your experience there? And what's your approach to putting on risk and putting risk on the books today?

因此，一些同行談到，由於事件風險和市場緊張情緒加劇，天然氣交易變得更加困難。那麼你在那裡的經歷如何？那麼，您今天該如何處理風險以及將風險記錄在帳簿上呢？

Let me take the first one and ask Sinead to answer the second one. On your question around countercyclical capital allocation, I think let's start with what we're trying to do.

我來回答第一個問題，然後請 Sinead 回答第二個問題。關於您提出的逆週期資本配置的問題，我想讓我們從我們正在嘗試做的事情開始。

We have said that we want to be able to unlock the full intrinsic value potential of this company. And we have said that free cash flow per share is going to be the key proxy, our North Star, that we're going to drive towards, right?

我們說過，我們希望能夠釋放這家公司的全部內在價值潛力。我們已經說過，每股自由現金流將成為我們努力的關鍵指標、我們的北極星，對嗎？

As you rightly say, what we have been doing over the past few years is, in essence, getting ourselves leaner and fitter for exactly the uncertainty, for exactly the cyclicality, which, of course, was inevitable. It just -- we didn't know when it was going to happen and what's going to trigger it. But I'm very glad that we are where we are today.

正如您所說，過去幾年我們一直在做的事情，本質上就是讓自己變得更精簡、更健康，以應對不確定性和周期性，當然，這是不可避免的。只是──我們不知道它什麼時候會發生，也不知道是什麼引發了它。但我很高興我們能取得今天的成就。

Now the good news is, of course, as we outlined in Capital Markets Day 2025 just a couple -- just a month ago, is that for the next five years, we have given a very clear trajectory of 10% plus free cash flow per share growth between now and 2030 on the back of our organic opportunities. Everything else now has to compete with that when we talk about allocation of capital.

現在的好消息當然是，正如我們一個月前在「2025 年資本市場日」上所概述的那樣，對於未來五年，我們給出了一個非常明確的軌跡，即從現在到 2030 年，借助我們的有機機會，每股自由現金流將增長 10% 以上。當我們談論資本配置時，其他一切都必須與之競爭。

And so indeed, in a counter cycle, we have a couple of options, of course. We can look at distributions at what we do there, and what we can do is also inorganic.

因此，在逆週期中，我們當然有幾個選擇。我們可以看看我們在那裡所做的事情的分佈，我們所能做的也是無機的。

I've said in the past, we want to be value hunters. Today, value hunting, in my view, is buying back more shell. Why? Today, our share price continues to be advantaged.

我過去曾說過，我們想成為價值獵人。如今，在我看來，價值追逐就是回購更多殼牌。為什麼？今天我們的股價繼續保持優勢。

We said in the past that the free cash flow yield meant it was advantaged, even more so today where things stand. And so you will see us continue with conviction to lead into the buybacks as we have been doing and, within that, 40% to 50% of CFFO range.

我們過去曾說過，自由現金流收益率意味著它具有優勢，就目前的情況而言更是如此。因此，您會看到我們繼續堅定地進行回購，就像我們一直在做的那樣，其中，CFFO 範圍為 40% 至 50%。

We will be prudent. Of course, we will keep looking at inorganic opportunities. We have $1 billion to $2 billion in our cash CapEx guidance for that. But the bar is high, and we need to be able to see a pathway towards free cash flow per share accretion in a relatively short period. Sinead?

我們將謹慎行事。當然，我們會繼續尋找無機機會。我們的現金資本支出預期為 10 億至 20 億美元。但門檻很高，我們需要能夠在相對較短的時間內看到每股自由現金流成長的途徑。西妮德？

So indeed, LNG had a very good quarter, as you say, very pleased with the outcome there. Let's take it into its component pieces.

所以確實，正如您所說，LNG 本季表現非常好，我們對結果非常滿意。讓我們來看看它的組成部分。

So in terms of the assets, the assets performed well. What we saw was some downtime, some unplanned downtime from Prelude, but very quickly bringing it back up. And we also had weather events. So we did see some of the cyclone and different issues there in Australia, particularly, hit both QGC and Gorgon.

因此就資產而言，資產表現良好。我們看到 Prelude 出現了一些停機，一些計劃外的停機，但很快就恢復了。我們還遇到了天氣事件。因此，我們確實看到了澳洲的一些颶風和其他問題，特別是襲擊了奎松城颶風中心和戈爾貢颶風中心。

That -- despite that, we still actually had length. And what that meant was that with demand remaining reasonably strong, we actually had strong margins as well. We were able to optimize around that. So that's what you saw come through in terms of our results in Q1.

儘管如此，我們實際上仍然有長度。這意味著，由於需求維持相當強勁，我們的利潤率實際上也很高。我們能夠圍繞這一點進行優化。這就是您在第一季看到的我們的業績。

Now if we take it to Q2 and what could happen there, what I'm expecting to see is some planned maintenance, and you've seen us talk about that. You see in the liquefaction volumes in terms of the forecast that we give. And that's planned maintenance as you come into summer. It's what you see us typically do, and it's across a range of assets, whether it's Gorgon, whether it's a man LNG, et cetera; but it's across quite a range of them.

現在，如果我們將其帶到第二季度並看看會發生什麼，我預計會看到一些計劃中的維護，您已經看到我們談論過這個問題。您可以根據我們給出的預測來查看液化量。這就是進入夏季後的計劃維護。這就是我們通常所做的，它涉及一系列資產，無論是 Gorgon，還是人類液化天然氣，等等；但它涉及的範圍相當廣泛。

So we do expect to see similar volumes to what we actually saw in Q1 as well. As of today, of course, prices were lower than they were in the last quarter, and we'll see how demand plays out accordingly.

因此，我們確實預計會看到與第一季實際看到的類似的交易量。當然，截至今天，價格低於上一季的水平，我們將觀察需求如何相應變化。

So for earnings, you could see, if you take the fundamentals and of course, the hedging, the legacy hedging losses that you mentioned before that we've discussed, you could see that play out in terms of a lower or more pressure in terms of the earnings. That's on earnings.

因此，對於收益而言，您可以看到，如果您考慮基本面，當然還有對沖，即您之前提到的我們討論過的遺留對沖損失，您會發現收益方面的壓力會降低或增加。這是關於收入的。

So what I expect to see is strong and resilient cash. And why do I see it? Well, because those hedges that we just discussed are noncash.

因此我期望看到的是強勁且有彈性的現金。我為什麼會看到它？嗯，因為我們剛才討論的那些對沖是非現金的。

And then secondly, I expect to see some working capital unwind as well, which relates to the first quarter. Because actually, in the first quarter, what you have seen in cash was that actually, we have quite high volumes of sales in March. And we need to collect that accounts receivable this quarter. So therefore, really resilient cash in Q2.

其次，我預計也會看到一些營運資金的減少，這與第一季有關。因為實際上，在第一季度，您所看到的現金狀況是，我們三月的銷售量實際上相當高。我們需要在本季收取應收帳款。因此，第二季的現金確實具有彈性。

Thank you very much, Sinead. Josh, thank you for those two questions. Luke, let's have the next question, please.

非常感謝，Sinead。喬希，謝謝你提出這兩個問題。盧克，請我們提出下一個問題。

Peter Low, Redburn Atlantic.

彼得‧洛 (Peter Low)，雷德伯恩大西洋公司 (Redburn Atlantic)。

Yes, the first was on the CapEx budget. You reiterated it this morning. But can you perhaps talk a bit about how much flexibility there could be that should the macro environment continue to deteriorate?

是的，第一個是關於資本支出預算。您今天早上重申了這一點。但是，您能否談談，如果宏觀環境繼續惡化，那麼靈活性會有多大？

And then the second one was just on the Singapore disposal. Can you help us at all in thinking about the potential quantum of the earnings improvement you will see now that that divestment has completed, particularly in chemicals?

第二個是關於新加坡的處置。您能否幫助我們思考一下，在完成這次撤資之後，獲利成長的潛在幅度將會有多大，特別是在化學領域？

Do you want to take both of those, Sinead?

你想同時服用這兩樣東西嗎，Sinead？

Sure. So on the first one, in terms of the CapEx budget, Peter. So we have reiterated our $20 billion to $22 billion CapEx budget. And why have we done that? Well, we've done it because of the position that we're in.

當然。因此，關於第一個問題，就資本支出預算而言，彼得。因此，我們重申了 200 億至 220 億美元的資本支出預算。我們為什麼這麼做？嗯，我們這樣做是因為我們目前所處的位置。

We've spent a significant amount of time positioning this company over the last few years to make sure that we are able to manage -- not just run the company on fundamentals, but to ensure that we position it to be able to deliver through uncertainty, and that's what's happening now. And that's delivering through uncertainty for our shareholders.

過去幾年，我們花了大量時間來定位這家公司，以確保我們能夠管理——不僅要從基本面來運營公司，還要確保我們能夠克服不確定性，實現目標，而這正是現在正在發生的事情。這對我們的股東來說是一個充滿不確定性的時期。

And therefore, from the perspective of capital, we're not asking our businesses -- we're not requesting them to stop on projects, to remove themselves from different commitments, et cetera. We are asking them to deliver on exactly what they said and to perform as we had promised. We're not asking them to step back from a range of different aspects.

因此，從資本的角度來看，我們並沒有要求我們的企業——我們並沒有要求他們停止項目，取消不同的承諾等等。我們要求他們嚴格履行他們所說的話並履行我們的承諾。我們並沒有要求他們從各個不同方面退縮。

So we don't believe that at this moment in time we need to step back within the capital range that we've got. However, if you were to look back at what we've done in the past, if you go back to during the COVID times, we've demonstrated a strong ability to be able to pull many levers. And you saw, of course, our CapEx budget at that time being below $18 billion.

因此，我們認為目前我們不需要退出現有的資本範圍。然而，如果回顧我們過去所做的事情，如果回顧 COVID 時期，我們已經展示了強大的能力，能夠發揮多種槓桿的作用。當然，您會看到，我們當時的資本支出預算低於 180 億美元。

So the flex is there, But that's not the position we're in at the moment. We don't need to do that, and we see great opportunities for value. And you've seen that in terms of some of the deals that we've done.

所以存在靈活性，但這不是我們目前所處的位置。我們不需要這樣做，而且我們看到了巨大的價值機會。從我們達成的一些交易中您已經看到了這一點。

You've just seen us take a further percentage in Ursa, which is, of course, something close to our heart. It's in deepwater. It's in the Gulf of America, where our team delivers incredibly well. And therefore, we have asymmetry of data and have the ability to deliver on our own operated assets.

您剛剛看到我們在 Ursa 中獲得了進一步的份額，這當然是我們非常關心的事情。它位於深水區。它位於美國灣，我們的團隊在這裡表現得非常出色。因此，我們的數據不對稱，並且有能力利用我們自己運營的資產。

Singapore?

新加坡？

Oh, Singapore, almost forgot. On the Singapore disposal, indeed, just finished this quarter. So what we've said around Singapore is that it was loss making. We do expect that to play out in terms of improvement in both the refinery margin and the chemicals margin as you take it out of the books.

哦，新加坡，差點忘了。事實上，新加坡的業務處置剛剛在本季完成。因此，我們在新加坡聽到的都是虧損的消息。我們確實希望，當你把它從帳簿中剔除時，煉油利潤率和化學品利潤率都會有所提高。

And it will, of course, contribute to our structural cost reductions. In terms of just giving you a bit of a feel for that, it's several hundred million is the impact if you were to take it across the full year. So I hope that's helpful.

當然，這將有助於我們降低結構性成本。為了讓大家稍微感受一下，如果將其放在全年來看，影響將達到數億美元。我希望這會有所幫助。

Thank you for that, Sinead. Peter, thank you for those questions. Luke, the next caller, please.

謝謝你，Sinead。彼得，謝謝你提出這些問題。有請下一位來電者盧克。

Lydia Rainforth, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Lydia Rainforth。

A couple of questions, if I could. The first one, just -- we talked about volatility and uncertainty. But given the size of Shell's own network, what are you seeing on real-time data in terms of demand, whether it's oil, oil products, LNG? And just to give us an indication of some of the fundamentals.

如果可以的話，我有幾個問題。第一個，我們剛剛討論了波動性和不確定性。但考慮到殼牌自身網路的規模，您在即時數據中看到的石油、石油產品、液化天然氣的需求如何？這只是給我們介紹一些基本情況。

And then secondly, on OpEx, progress, again, very, very good. What are you finding when you're taking these costs out? Are you finding it becomes easier and easier to simplify things as you're taking some of those layers out?

其次，在營運支出方面，進展也非常非常好。當您扣除這些成本後，您發現了什麼？您是否發現，當您去除其中的一些層時，事情變得越來越容易簡化？

I'll cover both. I think on your first question around just where the macro is right now, I think it's fair to say that we are, of course, watching all the potential headwinds there. But we haven't yet been able to translate that from the data that we have.

我將對兩者進行介紹。關於你的第一個問題，關於宏觀經濟目前的狀況，我認為可以公平地說，我們當然正在關注那裡所有潛在的阻力。但我們還無法根據現有數據來解釋這一點。

So the data is showing that by and large, oil products and LNG are holding up from a demand perspective for different reasons. LNG, for example, of course, the low storage levels in Europe have meant that there is quite a large draw into Europe for LNG volumes. And there isn't a huge amount of new supply coming on stream in 2025. And so that tightness continues in the market.

因此，數據顯示，總體而言，由於不同的原因，石油產品和液化天然氣從需求角度來看保持穩定。以液化天然氣為例，歐洲的低儲存水準意味著對液化天然氣的進口量將相當大。2025年也不會有大量新供應投入使用。因此市場緊張的局面仍在持續。

In crude and in products, what we're finding is a well-balanced market at the moment. We keep our eye on a few key signposts. So marine bunker fuel and diesel into trucking are usually the first indicators of broader economic slowdown. We're looking at those carefully. And then thereafter, you start to look at things like, for example, jet aviation, people traveling, or gasoline into passenger vehicles.

我們發現，目前原油和成品油市場處於平衡狀態。我們密切關注幾個關鍵路標。因此，船用燃料和柴油進入卡車運輸通常是整體經濟放緩的首要指標。我們正在仔細研究這些。然後，你開始關注諸如噴射航空、旅客旅行或乘用車汽油之類的事物。

Again, we monitor those particularly carefully to be able to see what the trends are. And particularly, we're looking at US and China trends where the ongoing tariff situation means that those will be likely amongst the first to be impacted. So that's what we are currently keeping an eye on.

再次，我們特別仔細地監控這些情況，以便能夠了解趨勢。特別是，我們正在關注美國和中國的趨勢，當前的關稅情況意味著這兩個國家很可能首先受到影響。這就是我們目前正在關注的事情。

When it comes to OpEx, look, very proud of the organization's momentum on this. I mean there's been so much hard work. I think I've mentioned in the past when we put the $3 billion -- $2 billion to $3 billion ambition in Capital Markets Day 2023 and we're able to deliver a year ahead of time at the top end of that range. This was very much a top-down target.

當談到營運支出時，你看，我們對組織在這方面的勢頭感到非常自豪。我的意思是我們已經付出了很多艱苦的努力。我想我以前提到過，我們在 2023 年資本市場日設定了 30 億美元——20 億至 30 億美元的目標，我們能夠提前一年實現這一目標。這在很大程度上是一個自上而下的目標。

And now what we're seeing is actually the organization starting to bring forth the ideas that could potentially take out costs. And that is starting to play through, and you see it as you rightly pointed out in the financials. We're trying to address that from multiple different points, whether it's supply chain and how we sharpen our focus on the supply chain, how we avoid incubating projects that are going to eventually die too long and killing them early.

現在我們看到的是，該組織實際上開始提出可能降低成本的想法。而這一點已經開始顯現，正如您在財務報告中正確指出的那樣。我們正嘗試從多個不同的角度來解決這個問題，無論是供應鏈，還是我們如何更加關注供應鏈，如何避免孵化最終會死亡太久的專案並過早扼殺牠們。

How do we continue to look at the way we are structured as a company, delayer, simplify? How do we simplify the corporate center so that we can become leaner and clearer? So all of those elements are starting to play out, but I would say there is a lot more to do.

我們如何繼續檢視公司的結構方式、延展性、簡化性？我們如何簡化企業中心，以便變得更精簡、更清晰？所有這些因素都開始發揮作用，但我想說還有很多事情要做。

We are nowhere close to our potential, and that's what I'm keen to really drive over the coming years to unlock the full potential of this incredible company. Thank you for the questions, Lydia. Luke, next caller, please.

我們還遠未發揮出我們的潛力，而這正是我在未來幾年真正渴望推動的事情，以釋放這家不可思議的公司的全部潛力。謝謝你的提問，莉迪亞。路克，有請下一位來電者。

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

I just want to follow up on the media question. In the time that Shell had a big shift, and I think you guys have done a phenomenal job in turning in. But at this point, do you think the organization capability or the culture have turned sufficiently that if you decide a launch acquisition that is attractive for you that the organization could take on? Or that is going to take maybe that another one or two years to ensure that all the counter, all the changes is really fully thing in?

我只是想跟進一下媒體的問題。在殼牌進行重大轉變的時候，我認為你們做出了非凡的工作。但現在，您是否認為組織能力或文化已經發生了足夠的轉變，如果您決定啟動對您有吸引力的收購，組織可以接受嗎？或者可能還需要一兩年的時間來確保所有的櫃檯、所有的改變都真正全面到位？

That's the first question. The second question is then, in the event if oil plants stay really low for an extended period of time -- when I say really know, call it to the 40s. Between the buyback and capital -- the CapEx cut, which one will be the first to go?

這是第一個問題。第二個問題是，如果石油工廠的產量在很長一段時間內保持在非常低的水平——當我說我真正知道時，就稱之為 40 年代。在回購和資本（資本支出削減）之間，哪一個會先被削減？

Two great questions. I'm going to give the tougher one to Sinead in a second. That's number two. I'll go for the culture question.

兩個很好的問題。我馬上要把更難的一個交給 Sinead。這是第二個。我將探討文化議題。

I want to start by saying we start from a very, very good place in the culture of Shell. The ethical bar that we have held ourselves to, the real care for people, focus on safety, all of these are elements we have been holding on to.

首先我想說，殼牌的企業文化非常非常好。我們始終堅守的道德標準、對人的真正關懷、對安全的關注，這些都是我們一直堅持的要素。

And what we have tried to supplement that with is what we call the winning performance culture. It's that next level. It's that hunger to win. It's our ability to be able to move from accepting mediocrity to really every time we do something, yes, we celebrate, but we very quickly look at what more we can and should be doing.

我們試著用所謂的成功績效文化來補充這一點。那是下一個級別。這就是對勝利的渴望。這是我們能夠從接受平庸轉變為每次我們做某事時都慶祝，是的，我們慶祝，但我們很快就會看看我們還能做什麼和應該做什麼。

Is that fully rooted in where we are today? No. I'll be honest with you. We have more work to do. What we see is a lot of green shoots. We see multiple parts of Shell starting to really move from let me explain the story of how good we're doing to actually, let's park that and look at what the gap is to our full potential as a company.

這是否完全根植於我們今天的處境？不。我會對你說實話。我們還有更多的工作要做。我們看到的是許多綠芽。我們看到殼牌的多個部門開始真正轉變，讓我來解釋一下我們做得有多好，實際上，讓我們停下來，看看我們作為一家公司與充分發揮潛力之間還存在什麼差距。

That, to me, is the sign of an organization that is going to be the winning organization. And we have more work to do in that space despite the excellent progress that we have seen over the last couple of years.

對我來說，這是一個組織即將成為勝利者的標誌。儘管過去幾年我們取得了顯著進展，但我們在該領域仍有許多工作要做。

You're right to also point out that before we ever look at inorganic, sizable inorganic, we have to have our own house in order. And so what I would say is in the parts where we have really seen that, where we have seen our capability to be able to really create value through the culture, we are making moves.

您也正確地指出，在我們研究無機物、相當大的無機物之前，我們必須先把自己的內部結構整理好。所以我想說的是，當我們真正看到這一點時，當我們看到我們能夠透過文化真正創造價值的能力時，我們正在採取行動。

And I'll give you one simple example, Pavilion. Pavilion is an LNG acquisition we did. We had a very clear view that this is a complex portfolio, multiple challenges, would take us several months to be able to integrate into Shell.

我舉一個簡單的例子，Pavilion。Pavilion 是我們進行的一項液化天然氣收購。我們非常清楚地認識到，這是一個複雜的投資組合，面臨多重挑戰，我們需要幾個月的時間才能融入殼牌。

We closed on the deal end of March. Today, we stand in a position where that LNG team has already been able to integrate Pavilion into Shell within weeks. That to me is an example of where the culture is thriving. And that is where I'm willing to put -- to bet on inorganic opportunities where we know we can unlock more value through bringing that asset into show because we have that comparative advantage and we have the culture and capability to do it. Sinead?

我們在三月底完成了這筆交易。如今，我們處於這樣的境地：液化天然氣團隊已經能夠在幾週內將 Pavilion 整合到殼牌公司。對我來說，這就是文化蓬勃發展的一個例子。這就是我願意投入的地方——押注無機機會，我們知道我們可以透過將資產投入展示來釋放更多價值，因為我們具有比較優勢，並且我們擁有做到這一點的文化和能力。西妮德？

Indeed. And then your second question was really around if oil prices are low at 40%, what are we going to do? Well, on that one, Paul, we were very careful, and we discussed it long and hard before at Capital Markets Day to actually be able to frame it for you in Capital Markets Day. Because we knew that there is always uncertainty, and we wanted to be able to show you our frame, our thinking for after -- if prices were to move from [$0.70] to that level.

的確。那麼你的第二個問題是，如果油價跌到 40% 以下，我們該怎麼辦？嗯，保羅，在這一點上我們非常謹慎，我們在資本市場日之前進行了長時間的深入討論，以便能夠在資本市場日為您制定框架。因為我們知道總是存在不確定性，我們希望能夠向您展示我們的框架，我們對之後的想法——如果價格從 [0.70 美元] 移動到那個水平。

So let me take you through it in terms of $50 first. So at a $50 mark, what we've said is, assuming we're at $50, our CFFO would be, roughly speaking, somewhere between $35 billion to $40 billion. In that world, we have a number of levers. We can pull the lever, of course, of CapEx, which you've mentioned. We can also, of course, use OpEx.

那麼讓我先以 50 美元來向您介紹一下。因此，以 50 美元的價格計算，我們的意思是，假設我們的 CFFO 為 50 美元，那麼大致會在 350 億美元到 400 億美元之間。在那個世界裡，我們擁有許多槓桿。當然，我們可以利用您提到的資本支出槓桿。當然，我們也可以使用 OpEx。

We can pull on divestments, although that could be difficult at that point in time. And of course, we can consider our distributions. For us at $50, what we said is we will continue share buybacks at $50. So what we've given you the model of is to basically say we'll pull a little bit on our CapEx.

我們可以進行撤資，儘管在那個時候這可能很困難。當然，我們可以考慮我們的分佈。對我們來說，當股價為 50 美元時，我們說我們將繼續以 50 美元的價格回購股票。因此，我們為您提供的模型基本上是說我們將在資本支出上稍微縮減一點。

So we'll bring a [$0.10], and we know we can. I just gave you that answer earlier in terms of Peter's question. We would also continue to maintain the buyback at that point.

因此我們將帶來 [0.10 美元]，我們知道我們可以做到。我剛才已經針對彼得的問題給了答案。我們也將繼續維持回購。

What we've modeled out is at 40% -- so our distribution range is 40% to 50%. So assuming we have somewhere between $35 million and $40 billion of CFFO, that comes out at $8 billion on our dividends and roughly some $6 million to $7 million of share buybacks. But we would continue doing buybacks at that level, and we would have the ability to lean on the balance sheet from a smaller mind given the strength of our balance sheet today.

我們的模型是 40%——所以我們的分佈範圍是 40% 到 50%。因此，假設我們的 CFFO 金額在 3,500 萬至 400 億美元之間，那麼我們的股利將達到 80 億美元，股票回購金額約為 600 萬至 700 萬美元。但我們會繼續以這一水平進行回購，考慮到我們目前資產負債表的實力，我們將有能力以較小的規模依賴資產負債表。

So that tells you how focused we are on that buyback. You then move to a $40 world. And what we showed you there was we showed you the paradigm of $40 for a long period of time, assuming that our CFFO came down below the $35 billion or roughly around the $35 billion mark.

這說明我們對回購的關注程度有多高。然後你就進入了一個價值 40 美元的世界。我們向你們展示了長期保持在 40 美元的範式，假設我們的 CFFO 降至 350 億美元以下或大約在 350 億美元左右。

Again, assuming that we distribute towards the lower end of our range at that point and we do 40%, we will be easily able to cover our $8 billion of dividends, just roughly using rough numbers. But of course, for us, the important thing is to be able to try and maintain the buyback as long as we can. And hopefully, that's what you see.

再次，假設我們當時的分配比例處於範圍的低端，並且達到 40%，那麼我們將能夠輕鬆支付 80 億美元的股息，只需粗略地使用粗略的數字即可。但當然，對我們來說，重要的是能夠盡可能長時間地嘗試並維持回購。希望這就是您所看到的。

Our focus is -- of course, in those worlds, you would see our share price going down, as Wael alluded to earlier. It's a great position for us to be in it at the moment. With $3.5 billion buyback, we're buying back even more shares than we were before because the price has come down. It's a great allocation of capital. And that's what you'd expect us to see and continue to look to do as prices continue to come down.

我們的重點是——當然，在那些世界中，你會看到我們的股價下跌，就像瓦伊爾之前提到的那樣。對我們來說，目前處於一個非常好的位置。透過 35 億美元的回購，我們回購的股票比以前更多，因為價格已經下降了。這是一次很好的資本配置。這正是您所期望看到的，隨著價格持續下降，我們將繼續努力實現這一目標。

Thank you for that, Sinead. Paul, thank you for those questions. Luke, next caller, pleaser?

謝謝你，Sinead。保羅，謝謝你提出這些問題。盧克，請問下一位是？

Biraj Borkhataria, RBC.

Biraj Borkhataria，RBC。

Firstly, thanks for the comment on the financial frame and that $50 scenario. That's really helpful. I wanted to ask a question -- or two questions. The first one is just on your -- the various deals you've done.

首先，感謝您對財務框架和 50 美元情景的評論。這真的很有幫助。我想問一個問題──或者兩個問題。第一個是關於您—您所做的各種交易。

You've done a number of small deals where some are closed, some are to come, and not all of the financial magnitude is disclosed. Could you just help us understand the cash impacts of these? It's still not clear to me what you paid for Pavilion, and then you've got a Singapore sale and a few others.

您已經完成了許多小交易，其中一些已經完成，一些即將完成，但並非所有的財務規模都已披露。您能否幫助我們了解這些對現金的影響？我仍然不清楚您為 Pavilion 支付了多少錢，然後您又進行了新加坡銷售和其他一些銷售。

And then the second question is just on -- in the Upstream, thinking about OpEx in [DD&A], now that we deconsolidate the Nigeria from the portfolio. Is the Q1 run rate sensible? Or how should we think about that going forward?

然後第二個問題是關於上游的，考慮[DD&A]中的營運支出，現在我們將尼日利亞從投資組合中分離出來。Q1 的運作率合理嗎？或者我們應該如何思考這個問題？

Do you want to take those, Sinead?

你想拿走這些嗎，Sinead？

Yes. So in terms of -- two parts, Biraj, on Pavilion and Singapore. So the way I would look at it in terms of the cash impact on Pavilion, you saw we haven't disclosed the price that we gave on it. But you can see in terms of how it plays like, it's largely a small amount of capital went out for it. But it's largely the leases that come through.

是的。因此，就兩部分而言，Biraj 分別談到了 Pavilion 和新加坡。因此，從對 Pavilion 的現金影響的角度來看，您會看到我們尚未披露我們給出的價格。但從它的運作方式來看，它基本上只需要投入少量資金。但主要是簽訂了租約。

So you saw that in our net debt, and you saw it was below $1 billion. But you see it in that range. So that will flow through. I wouldn't expect much impact in terms of really impacting the earnings from Pavilion this year. You'll start to see it in 2026, and that's just the way the contracts play out.

所以您可以看到我們的淨債務低於 10 億美元。但你可以在那個範圍內看到它。這樣它就會順利通過。我預計這不會對 Pavilion 今年的收益產生太大影響。您將在 2026 年開始看到它，這就是合約發揮作用的方式。

Then on Singapore, the divestment. You saw it in our divestment proceeds. So you would have seen divestment proceeds of, roughly speaking, $600 million for this quarter. That is largely Singapore and a little bit of small items like Iraq loan repayments and things like that. But you see that coming through.

然後是新加坡的撤資。您可以在我們的撤資收益中看到這一點。因此，本季的撤資收益約為 6 億美元。其中主要涉及新加坡，還有一些小事，例如伊拉克貸款償還等。但你看到它正在實現。

What we've disclosed on that is that we have -- the Singapore was loss-making. So you will see us have basically a price -- it's a relevant price. You will just see free cash flow and intrinsic value improved as a result of that transaction.

我們已經揭露的是，新加坡處於虧損狀態。所以你會看到我們基本上有一個價格——這是一個相關的價格。您會看到，由於該交易，自由現金流和內在價值得到了改善。

And then the other one that you didn't mention, but I suspect it's also in your mind, is SPDC, so the Nigerian divestment. If I were to take the Nigerian divestment and the Singapore divestment together, they're, roughly speaking, neutral in this current price environment. So my free cash flow will be roughly neutral.

然後您沒有提到的另一個，但我想您也想到了，那就是 SPDC，也就是尼日利亞的撤資。如果我將尼日利亞的撤資和新加坡的撤資放在一起考慮，那麼在當前的價格環境下，它們大致是中性的。所以我的自由現金流將大致保持中立。

What I'm probably more interested in is the fact that I will obviously have -- and you were going there -- the impact on OpEx. So you haven't seen my OpEx improvements yet in terms of either Singapore or SPDC, only a small amount of that came through in the quarter. You'll start to see that come through throughout the year. And of course, it will take us a while as people move out.

我可能更感興趣的是，我顯然會對營運支出產生影響——正如你所說。因此，您還沒有看到我在新加坡或 SPDC 方面的營運支出改善，本季只有一小部分實現了改善。您將會在全年中看到這一點。當然，隨著人們的遷出，這還需要一段時間。

That was on the first one and partially on the second. So in other words, yes, more to come on OpEx. And then in terms of DD&A, you did start to see that come through this quarter. Biraj, you'll have seen that one of the improvements that we saw in Upstream was, of course, lower well write-offs versus Q4, but also lower depreciation. And that's also linked to the reserves.

這是關於第一個的，部分關於第二個的。換句話說，是的，OpEx 方面還會有更多進展。就 DD&A 而言，您確實開始看到它在本季出現。Biraj，您可能已經看到，我們在上游看到的改進之一當然是與第四季度相比油井註銷率較低，而且折舊率也較低。這也與儲備有關。

So just as you saw us come through in Q4, we updated our reserves numbers. So good catch on that.

因此，正如您在第四季度看到的那樣，我們更新了儲備數字。很好，明白了。

Thank you, Sinead. Thank you, Biraj, for those questions. Luke, next caller, please.

謝謝你，Sinead。謝謝 Biraj 提出這些問題。路克，有請下一位來電者。

Giacomo Romeo, Jefferies.

賈科莫·羅密歐，傑富瑞。

Yeah. The -- if I can go back to the Pavilion acquisition, I'm just trying to understand a bit better why you don't expect to see an impact on earnings this year. Was just Pavilion not generating any and what changes next year in terms of contracts? Just trying to understand what are the moving parts there that actually drives your ability to extract profit out of what you're getting as part of the Pavilion deal?

是的。如果我可以回顧 Pavilion 收購案，我只是想更好地理解為什麼您預計今年的收益不會受到影響。難道 Pavilion 沒有創造任何收入嗎？明年合約方面會有什麼變化？只是想了解一下，究竟是哪些因素在推動您從 Pavilion 交易中獲得利潤？

And on the $50, Sinead, you represent better you had in the CMD slide as well. And you mentioned that you would see the potential for reducing CapEx a bit. You showed that in the track there. Which areas will you be seeing the reduction? Can you provide more clarity there, where you would prioritize CapEx? That would be helpful.

在 50 美元方面，Sinead，您在 CMD 幻燈片中的表現也更好。您提到您會看到稍微降低資本支出的潛力。您在那條軌道上展示了這一點。哪些領域將會出現減幅？您能否更清楚地說明您將優先考慮哪些資本支出？那將會很有幫助。

Well, let me take the second question first and then if you want to come back to the Pavilion point. What I want to avoid doing, Giacomo, is almost locking myself than for one reason.

好吧，讓我先回答第二個問題，然後如果你想回到展館的觀點。賈科莫，我想要避免做的事情是幾乎把自己鎖起來，而不是因為一個原因。

I think -- the biggest thing we have tried to do is to become much more dynamic in our capital allocation issue, right? And what we used to do was worry about -- does the capital dollar go into Upstream or into Downstream? What we're trying to do now is to say, does that capital dollar go into either of those or into inorganic or into more buybacks or into deleveraging?

我認為——我們嘗試做的最重要的事情就是讓我們的資本配置問題變得更加動態，對嗎？我們過去常常擔心──資本應該流向上游還是下游？我們現在要做的是，這些資本是要用於上述其中一項，還是用於無機投資，還是用於更多回購，還是用於去槓桿？

We're trying to make sure that we are always dynamic in looking at where the market is and looking at where the best opportunities are. Now having said that, of course, there is called a maintained level of capital. And the proxy that Sinead used earlier, the less than $18 billion, which is where we were in a -- in the COVID times, gives you a sense of what is a healthy maintained level.

我們努力確保我們始終動態地觀察市場動態和最佳機會所在。既然已經這麼說了，當然，還有所謂的維持資本水準。Sinead 之前使用的代理程式值不到 180 億美元，這是我們在 COVID 時期的水平，這讓您了解什麼是健康維持的水平。

Today, we're talking about a range of $20 billion to $22 billion, which, of course, has growth embedded in it. Important to recognize there's $1 billion to $2 billion of inorganic capital that is available to us in that context. Now in that environment, we can either choose to deploy that capital because we can create countercyclical value, life cycle value, for our shareholders or we can pull it back if we still don't see the opportunities.

今天，我們討論的是 200 億美元到 220 億美元的範圍，當然，這其中包含著成長。重要的是要認識到，在這種情況下，我們可以獲得 10 億到 20 億美元的無機資本。現在在這種環境下，我們可以選擇部署這些資本，因為我們可以為股東創造逆週期價值、生命週期價值，或者如果我們仍然沒有看到機會，我們可以撤回這些資本。

And so what I would say is trust us to continue to be prudent in making sure that every dollar of our shareholders' capital is looked at with the rigor that you would expect of us, making sure that we take advantage of the opportunities at the right point in the cycle and, where we don't see those opportunities, to make sure we hold on to that capital, as you have seen us do at the right points in time over the last few years. Sinead?

因此我想說的是，請相信我們將繼續保持謹慎，確保我們股東資本的每一美元都得到您期望的嚴格審查，確保我們在周期的正確點上利用機會，如果我們沒有看到這些機會，我們將確保我們保住這些資本，正如您在過去幾年中看到我們在正確的時間點所做的那樣。西妮德？

And in terms of Pavilion, Giacomo, really, what I'm trying to say is what our traders do incredibly well is being able to have flexibility and access. So as Wael said, we've managed to integrate this into the company very rapidly. They've done a great job on it, but it's a series of contracts.

就 Pavilion 而言，Giacomo，實際上，我想說的是，我們的交易員做得非常好的一點是能夠擁有靈活性和存取權限。正如瓦埃爾所說，我們已成功將其迅速融入公司。他們在這方面做得很好，但這只是一系列合約。

So there's a mixture of contracts and assets that come with it. Those contracts include both derivatives and physical, and they have different timing impacts. Therefore, you see that really play out whenever those all coming together, and that's really towards next year. So there's lots of puts and takes on it, which will determine value.

因此，隨之而來的是合約和資產的混合。這些合約包括衍生性商品和實物合約，它們對時間有不同的影響。因此，當所有這些都結合在一起時，你會看到這一切真正發揮作用，而這確實是在為明年做準備。因此，有許多投入和產出將決定其價值。

We also, of course, have the physical side of it. We have five vessels. We have a number of regas -- access to regas terminals, et cetera. By being able to have that flexibility to be able to optimize, that's where they truly make money. And of course, it's just the timing of when they get access to those and how to there, et cetera. So how it's been integrated so far and really looking forward to them driving the value that they promised us and that will really be into 2026.

當然，我們也有它的物理方面。我們有五艘船。我們擁有多個再氣化設施－可以使用再氣化終端機等等。透過擁有這種靈活性並進行最佳化，他們才真正賺錢。當然，這只是他們何時獲得這些權利以及如何獲得這些權利的問題。那麼到目前為止它是如何整合的，我真的很期待他們推動他們向我們承諾的價值，而這將真正持續到 2026 年。

Absolutely. Thank you for that, Sinead. Giacomo, thank you for your questions as well. Luke, next caller, please.

絕對地。謝謝你，Sinead。賈科莫，也感謝您的提問。路克，有請下一位來電者。

Henry Tarr, Berenberg.

亨利·塔爾 (Henry Tarr)，貝倫貝格 (Berenberg)。

I wanted to ask about marketing. Both mobility and lubricants had a very strong quarter, which certainly suggests underlying demand. You haven't seen a slowdown so far, as you mentioned earlier. I just wonder whether there's anything else going on there from a self-help perspective as we think about modeling out for the rest of the year?

我想問一下有關行銷的問題。本季度，行動出行和潤滑油市場表現都非常強勁，這無疑顯示了潛在的需求。正如您之前提到的，到目前為止您還沒有看到經濟放緩的跡象。我只是想知道，當我們考慮為今年剩餘時間做建模時，從自助的角度來看是否還有其他事情發生？

And then maybe sectors in decarbonization to round it out. The environment remains pretty weak, and we're seeing a decline. Are there any signs of light at the end of the tunnel for this business?

然後也許還有脫碳領域來完善它。環境仍然相當疲軟，而且我們正在看到衰退。這項業務的前景是否出現了曙光？

I think one broad question. Did you want to address that?

我認為這是一個廣泛的問題。你想解決這個問題嗎？

Yeah, certainly. In terms of -- indeed, strong quarter for our marketing business. So very pleased to see that always higher than Q4, as you say. Let me break it into those three parts that you alluded to.

是的，當然。就這一點而言——事實上，我們的行銷業務本季表現強勁。正如您所說，很高興看到這一數字始終高於第四季度。讓我將其分為您提到的三個部分。

So first of all, on mobility, it was actually quite similar to Q4, but actually good for Q1 because we haven't come into driving season yet. They're doing a great job in terms of making sure exactly that self-help point. So we're driving costs down, focusing in on advertising, focusing in just on every dollar that they spend, but also on the premium products.

首先，就機動性而言，它實際上與第四季度非常相似，但實際上對第一季來說是好事，因為我們還沒有進入駕駛季節。他們在確保自助點方面做得很好。因此，我們正在降低成本，專注於廣告，並關注他們花費的每一美元，同時也關注優質產品。

And that's where you start to see the margin coming through. So significant progress there, and I look forward to seeing further throughout the year.

這就是你開始看到利潤成長的地方。我們取得了重大進展，我期待全年取得進一步進展。

On the lubricant side of things, it was -- indeed, it was a good quarter for lubricants. And we saw strong margins really driven by that premium fuel, the premium lubricants that they've been selling. They're doing a great job on that.

從潤滑油方面來看，這確實是潤滑油表現不錯的一個季度。我們看到，他們銷售的優質燃料和優質潤滑油確實帶來了豐厚的利潤。他們在這方面做得很好。

And frankly, last year was their best year ever, and we continue to see them hit new records. So looking forward to seeing exactly what they can do next.

坦白說，去年是他們有史以來最好的一年，我們繼續看到他們創下新的紀錄。因此期待看到他們下一步究竟能做什麼。

Sectors and decarb, a bit different. There's obviously component pieces to that, but it was more challenged, as you say, particularly this quarter. It's difficult across whole environment.

部門和脫碳，有點不同。這顯然是由各個部分組成的，但正如你所說，它面臨的挑戰更大，尤其是本季。在整個環境中這很困難。

There's a couple of things in there. So we see pockets of strength, of course, in terms of trading. So we did see some of the uncertainty and some good pockets of making money through our trading organization, particularly in the US in advance of the tariffs coming through.

裡面有幾件事。因此，我們當然在交易方面看到了一些強勁表現。因此，我們確實看到了一些不確定性，也看到了一些透過我們的貿易組織賺錢的好機會，特別是在美國關稅出台之前。

But of course, we also see challenges in places like Raizen, which in Brazil, it's a difficult environment, difficult crops at the moment and, of course, just high interest rates. So mixed space there, and we look forward to watching the space very closely to see how that continues to develop.

但當然，我們也看到 Raizen 等地面臨挑戰，在巴西，環境很艱難，目前農作物生長困難，當然還有高利率。因此那裡存在混合空間，我們期待密切觀察該空間以了解其如何繼續發展。

For us, biofuels is something that we can optimize around our traders, but also, of course, the short that we have within our own mobility as well. But we watch the space closely given high tough this.

對我們來說，生物燃料是我們可以圍繞我們的貿易商進行優化的東西，當然，也是我們自身流動性不足的地方。但鑑於這一形勢嚴峻，我們密切關注。

Thank you, Sinead. And I have to say, very proud of how our marketing organization is showing up with all the focus on the transformation that they have been through. So -- and I expect a lot more to come. Thank you for those questions, Henry. Can we go to the next caller, please, Luke?

謝謝你，Sinead。我必須說，我們對我們的行銷組織如此關注他們所經歷的轉型感到非常自豪。所以——我期待未來會有更多。謝謝你提出這些問題，亨利。我們可以接聽下一位來電者嗎，盧克？

Matt Lofting, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的馬特‧洛夫廷 (Matt Lofting)。

Two quick ones, please. Shell has a substantial business in the US across the value chain. I wonder if you could share any perspectives you currently have on the direct impact of the tariff framework, at least as it stands at the moment, and whether there's any specific assets where you see potential effects?

請快速回答兩個問題。殼牌在美國的整個價值鏈中都有大量業務。我想知道您是否可以分享您目前對關稅框架直接影響的看法，至少就目前而言，以及您是否認為某些特定資產可能會受到影響？

And then secondly, if we combine the Upstream and Integrated Gas business, there's a track record over the last four to six quarters of beating consensus expectations. To what extent do you see that as fruition of the performance improvement agenda over the last couple of years? And how sustainable do you see that performance going forward?

其次，如果我們將上游和綜合天然氣業務結合起來，過去四到六個季度的業績記錄都超出了普遍預期。您認為這在多大程度上是過去幾年績效改善議程的成果？您認為這種表現未來還能持續多久？

Let me take the first one and then ask Sinead to address the second one. Yes, we have a very material position in the US. We're the largest player in the Gulf of America. And I think, really pleased with the positions we have there, some of the best ZIP codes in the Gulf.

讓我先回答第一個問題，然後請 Sinead 回答第二個問題。是的，我們在美國佔有非常重要的地位。我們是美國灣最大的參與者。我認為，我們對我們在那裡的位置感到非常滿意，那裡是海灣地區最好的郵遞區號之一。

We are, of course, also the largest off-taker of US LNG and, of course, a significant presence in Shell Pennsylvania in the Shell Polymers Monaca, which is our petrochemical facility. So indeed, we have good line of sight to two things there.

當然，我們也是美國液化天然氣的最大承購商，並且在殼牌賓州的殼牌聚合物莫納卡（我們的石化設施）中佔有重要地位。因此，我們確實對那裡的兩件事有了很好的了解。

What I would say, maybe starting with the global picture around tariffs, is we, at the moment, see a relatively limited impact to us; and what we see is manageable. Of course, the, call it, first order impact are more related to the supply chain than they are related to energy product sales.

我想說的是，也許從全球關稅情況開始，目前我們看到它對我們的影響相對有限；我們看到的情況是可以控制的。當然，所謂的一級影響與供應鏈的關係比與能源產品銷售的關係更密切。

And so what we're doing is we're looking for mitigations around that. As an example, in the US, Sparta, one of the major facilities we are developing already had a significant portion of their steel purchased well before the tariffs hit. So there was a lot of work that was ongoing in anticipation and, therefore, to mitigate and derisk some of these issues.

因此，我們正在做的就是尋找緩解該問題的措施。例如，在美國，我們正在開發的大型工廠之一斯巴達 (Sparta) 在關稅實施之前就已經購買了相當一部分鋼材。因此，我們正在進行大量預期工作，以緩解和降低其中的一些問題。

The bigger question we are looking at when it comes to the tariff impact is, of course, the second order impact, what that means to the real economy, what it means is supply/demand. That, of course, has a lagging impact. It's unlikely to be within a quarter or two.

當談到關稅影響時，我們關注的更大問題當然是二階影響，這對實體經濟意味著什麼，對供需又意味著什麼。當然，這會產生滯後影響。這不太可能在一兩個季度內實現。

But as we look into 2026, that's what we keep our eye on in terms of how it plays out. But so far, knock on wood, it has been very manageable. And the teams are doing well to be able to make sure there is very limited pain to the organization.

但當我們展望 2026 年時，我們會密切關注其發展。但到目前為止，一切都還算順利。而且團隊做得很好，能夠確保為組織帶來的痛苦非常有限。

Yeah. And in terms of Integrated Gas and Upstream, I think just -- I think thank you for recognizing what the teams have done in that. Because if you take it back to Capital Markets Day 2023, what we said to you then was that if we own these assets, we're going to run them well. We're going to be the rightful owners of these or we shouldn't be in them.

是的。就綜合天然氣和上游業務而言，我想——感謝您對團隊所做貢獻的認可。因為如果你回顧 2023 年資本市場日，我們當時對你說的是，如果我們擁有這些資產，我們就會好好經營它們。我們要成為這些的合法擁有者，否則我們就不應該擁有它們。

And what you've seen are -- both our Integrated Gas teams and the Upstream teams to take that on board, they are running very, very hard. And they're not just running hard to drive down costs. They're running hard to maximize performance. And they do it with the lens that they know what the competitive benchmark is.

而您所看到的是—我們的綜合天然氣團隊和上游團隊都非常非常努力地工作。他們不只是拼命地降低成本。他們正在努力奔跑以最大限度地提高表現。他們這樣做是因為他們知道競爭基準是什麼。

They're very much focused around performance, discipline, and simplification. That allows them to free up the thinking as to where they should spend their time. And one example of that is we know there's going to be uncertainty. We know that issues can occur.

他們非常注重性能、紀律和簡化。這使得他們能夠自由思考應該如何度過自己的時間。其中一個例子就是我們知道將會存在不確定性。我們知道問題可能會發生。

But when something goes down, it's how quickly can they get it back up and running? And pride is a wonderful case in point, which we've seen since the turnaround that it will go down. And if it goes down, how quickly can we get it back. And it's 60% less time to get it back up again.

但是當故障時，他們能多快恢復正常運作？驕傲就是一個很好的例子，自從情況好轉以來，我們已經看到驕傲會下降。如果它下降了，我們多久能恢復它。且恢復所需的時間減少了 60%。

So that focus means that we're driving for cash. We're driving for every single dollar, and that's what this team is doing. So they're managing through the uncertainty. They continue to have that drive, that wish to perform. And it doesn't matter which part of the world you're talking about, that competitive spirit is there, and I think it's going to continue.

所以，這種關注意味著我們是為了現金而努力。我們努力節省每一分錢，這就是我們這個團隊正在做的事情。所以他們正在努力克服不確定性。他們繼續擁有那種動力，那種表現的願望。不管你談論的是世界的哪個地方，這種競爭精神都存在，我認為它將會持續下去。

All right, very much so. Thank you for those questions, Matt. Now let's go to Luke for the next caller, please.

好的，非常如此。謝謝你提出這些問題，馬特。現在請盧克 (Luke) 接聽下一位來電者。

Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats。

I also had two questions, if I may. I wanted to ask you about the market conditions that you see for disposals. I can imagine that with all the uncertainty that exists, it may have become more difficult to execute some of the disposals that you're still working on, but hard to know.

如果可以的話，我還有兩個問題。我想問一下您所看到的處置的市場狀況。我可以想像，由於存在各種不確定性，執行一些你仍在努力但很難知道的處置可能會變得更加困難。

I was wondering if -- how you see the, basically, disposal market? And then secondly, slightly more practical, perhaps. But I was wondering where we are now with LNG Canada. And -- because it looks like we're relatively close to the startup and how we can expect the quarterly earnings stream to be impacted by that project.

我想知道—您如何看待處置市場？其次，也許更實用一點。但我想知道我們目前與加拿大液化天然氣公司的合作進展如何。而且——因為看起來我們離這家新創公司比較近，而且我們可以預期季度收益流將受到該專案的影響。

I always take the LNG Canada question, but I'm going to hand it over to you this time, Sinead. Then I'll quickly touch on the disposals.

我總是回答有關加拿大液化天然氣的問題，但這次我要把它交給你，Sinead。然後我會快速談談處置事宜。

The biggest thing I'd say, Martijn, is thankfully, we have been working for the past two years to get well ahead of this, right? I mean, if there's one thing that I'm most proud of in Q1 -- yes, the results were great to see. But I'm very proud of the culmination of significant effort for a number of years to be able to, in essence, move beyond Nigeria onshore, a huge, huge undertaking -- and congratulations to the team for completing that -- Singapore Energy and Chemical Park, another major achievement; and of course, Pakistan.

我想說的最重要的事情是，馬丁，值得慶幸的是，過去兩年我們一直在努力解決這個問題，對吧？我的意思是，如果第一季有一件事讓我最自豪的話——是的，結果非常棒。但我為多年來的巨大努力所取得的成果感到非常自豪，從本質上講，我們能夠將項目從尼日利亞本土擴展到其他地區，這是一項巨大的工程——祝賀團隊完成了這項工程——新加坡能源化工園區，這是另一項重大成就；當然還有巴基斯坦。

Those were the biggest elements of our disposal program. While others today are looking to dispose to be able to make their financial framework work, our focus now can be very much on actually delivering what we have promised, delivering the 10%-plus of free cash flow per share growth. By the way, the majority of which is not correlated to oil price. And that is the position that I think is particularly nuance for us.

這些是我們處置計劃中最重要的部分。雖然今天其他人都在尋求處置資產以使他們的財務框架能夠正常運轉，但我們現在的重點可以放在真正兌現我們的承諾上，實現每股 10% 以上的自由現金流增長。順便說一句，其中大部分與油價無關。我認為這個立場對我們來說特別微妙。

The majority of that 10% is coming from -- 5% to 7% comes from buybacks, and the rest is absolute free cash flow growth, which is not needing to be correlated to oil price because it is self-help from OpEx, flexing on CapEx as and when we need to. And a lot of it is the transformation of Downstream and Renewables.

這 10% 中的大部分來自——5% 到 7% 來自回購，其餘的則是絕對自由現金流增長，這不需要與油價掛鉤，因為它是來自營運支出的自助，在需要時可以根據資本支出進行調整。其中很大一部分是下游和再生能源的轉型。

It's the improvements we mentioned in Capital Markets Day 2025 in marketing. It's the uptick that we expect for chemicals. It's our ability to turn around the res business. And that doesn't even include the upside that we see for trading in a volatile environment.

這就是我們在「2025 年資本市場日」中提到的行銷方面的改進。這是我們預期化學品價格將上漲。這是我們扭轉資源業務的能力。這甚至還不包括我們在動盪環境中交易所看到的上行空間。

And so that is very much where we are today. And that's why, as we, of course, look at continuing to churn through the portfolio, the big ones are behind this.

這就是我們今天的處境。這就是為什麼，當我們考慮繼續對投資組合進行調整時，大公司是幕後推手。

Yeah. And on LNG Canada, indeed, we're really pleased with the progress so far. And of course, you saw the commissioning cargo come in to be able to test all of the different aspects of the facility. And we're still on track, of course, with the first cargo intended in middle of this year.

是的。關於加拿大液化天然氣項目，我們確實對迄今為止的進展感到非常滿意。當然，您也看到了調試貨物的運來，以便能夠測試該設施的各個方面。當然，我們的計劃仍在按計劃進行，第一批貨物預計將於今年年中運送。

I won't comment on earnings because, of course, from our perspective, what we're really interested in is not the first cargo. We're interested in when it ramps up because more time, that's when it really starts to have a sizable impact into our numbers, both in terms of liquefaction volumes, but actually both earnings and cash. So I'm much more interested in where we get to towards the end of the year.

我不會對收益發表評論，因為當然，從我們的角度來看，我們真正感興趣的不是第一批貨物。我們感興趣的是它何時開始上升，因為隨著時間的推移，它才真正開始對我們的數字產生相當大的影響，不僅在液化量方面，而且實際上在收益和現金方面。所以我比較感興趣的是今年年底我們會取得怎樣的成果。

And a reminder, of course, it's too trained. So you're going to have the first train starting up, and then there's a lag until you get the second train. So I think we will -- you will see more of that flow, of course, coming through and the earnings impact in due course.

當然，需要提醒的是，它訓練得太過了。因此，第一列火車會啟動，然後會有一段時間延遲，直到第二列火車啟動。所以我認為我們會——當然，你會看到更多的資金流入，並在適當的時候對盈利產生影響。

Thank you very much, Martijn. Can we go to the next question, please, Luke?

非常感謝，Martijn。路克，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Roger Read, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的羅傑‧里德 (Roger Read)。

Maybe coming back to the resiliency question on a slightly different tack. So at the Capital Markets Day, you laid out the cost savings goals. Presumably in a lower oil price environment, you would have a little more urgency to get that done. So I'm just curious how you're thinking about it that way.

也許我們可以透過稍微不同的方式重新討論彈性問題。因此，在資本市場日，您制定了成本節約目標。想必在較低的油價環境下，你會更迫切地想要完成這件事。所以我只是好奇你怎麼想的。

And then the second question or follow on with that is, with environment you're describing, obviously, the cash flows and buying back shares is important. But how would you think about allocating on acquisitions in addition to thinking about the overall resiliency and the dividend and so forth?

然後第二個問題或接下來的問題是，在您所描述的環境下，顯然現金流和回購股票很重要。但是，除了考慮整體彈性和股息等因素之外，您還會如何考慮收購分配？

Let me take the first one and then ask Sinead to address the second one. I think let's go back to what we've been saying, Roger, for the last couple of years. I think -- hopefully, what you've heard me say is, we know this is a cyclical industry. We know there is going to be uncertainty. And therefore, we believe there's 3 key characteristics of a winning company.

讓我先回答第一個問題，然後請 Sinead 回答第二個問題。羅傑，我想讓我們回顧過去幾年我們一直在談論的事情。我認為——希望您聽到我說的是，我們知道這是一個週期性行業。我們知道將會存在不確定性。因此，我們認為成功的公司有三個關鍵特徵。

It's making sure that we are consistent. It's making sure we're resilient. And it's making sure that we are disciplined in our capital allocation. All of that is underpinned by just being lean and fit, right? And that's where the cost agenda plays in.

這是為了確保我們的一致性。它確保我們具有韌性。並確保我們的資本配置符合紀律。這一切都只是靠精瘦和健康來支撐的，對嗎？這就是成本議程發揮作用的地方。

I can tell you there is absolutely not any more urgency on the cost agenda than there was a few months ago. Because the cost agenda is a critical agenda not just to be able to weather whatever choppy waters we're going into., But actually, the cost agenda, in my mind, is an example of whether Shell deserves the alpha when it comes to operations.

我可以告訴你，成本議程的緊迫性絕對不會比幾個月前更高。因為成本議程是一個關鍵議程，它不僅能幫助我們渡過即將遇到的波濤洶湧的水域，而且實際上，在我看來，成本議程是殼牌在營運方面是否值得優先考慮的一個例子。

We need to be able to demonstrate that this is a company that has that operational alpha on a consistent basis, and the cost is an important metric in that. And this is not cost cutting for cost cutting's sake. We are willing to put more costs in the areas where we can unlock more value, but really being very focused on where there is waste in the organization, where can we enhance productivity.

我們需要能夠證明這是一家能夠持續維持營運阿爾法的公司，而成本是其中一個重要的指標。這並不是為了削減成本而削減成本。我們願意在能夠釋放更多價值的領域投入更多成本，但真正關注的是組織中存在浪費的地方，以及我們可以在哪些方面提高生產力。

And that's playing in through AI, through what we're doing in that space. Supply chain, we still think there is a lot more to go in the supply chain space. And I can tell you there is a massive amount of urgency in the organization, and that will continue not just for the $5 billion to $7 billion, but as we continue to really build that muscle of being the best we can be as Shell.

這是透過人工智慧、透過我們在該領域所做的事情來實現的。供應鏈，我們仍然認為供應鏈領域還有很大的發展空間。我可以告訴你們，我們組織內部有著巨大的緊迫感，這種緊迫感不僅會持續到 50 億到 70 億美元，而且會持續到我們真正打造實力，使殼牌公司成為最好的公司。

Indeed. And yes, your question around buybacks versus acquisitions. I think we've been very clear that value creation is the key. It's a north star of what we're going after. And of course, that's why we say free cash flow per share is the measure that we do.

的確。是的，您的問題是關於回購與收購。我認為我們已經非常清楚，創造價值是關鍵。它是我們追求的北極星。當然，這就是為什麼我們說每股自由現金流是我們衡量的標準。

So everything we do has to rank against basically the shares and the buying back of the shares. And we just talked about the fact that as oil price has gone down, they've actually got cheaper. So it's an even better capital allocation for us.

因此，我們所做的一切都必須與股票和股票回購有關。我們剛才談到，隨著油價下跌，它們實際上變得更便宜了。所以這對我們來說是一個更好的資本配置。

But there's no reluctance from our side in terms of going after value elsewhere. We're not afraid to go after, but the bar is incredibly high. And of course, you see that.

但我們並不介意在其他方面追求價值。我們並不懼怕追求，但標準卻非常高。當然，你也看到了。

We have the option, of course, within our own organic portfolio as well. And just to remind you, even when we look at the Upstream portfolio that we drew out in terms of what projects will start delivering before 2030, we give you examples of projects which, on average, have breakevens of $35.

當然，我們也可以在我們自己的有機投資組合內進行選擇。需要提醒您的是，即使我們根據哪些項目將在 2030 年之前開始交付來查看上游投資組合，我們也會為您提供平均盈虧平衡點為 35 美元的項目示例。

So you can see how attractive even our own portfolio is. We then, of course, have those buybacks that we just discussed, which are incredibly cheap. And therefore, it's a good allocation of capital. And then finally, we have, of course, M&A.

所以你可以看到我們自己的投資組合有多有吸引力。當然，我們還有剛才討論過的回購，它們的價格非常便宜。因此，這是一種良好的資本配置。最後，我們當然還有併購。

So we have that option to be able to go there. We're incredibly well positioned for that. So if you remember where our balance sheet is, we've positioned the balance sheet such that we have more than $35 billion of cash. We have lines of credit that we could utilize if we need to, but it's just not something that's on our mind because we have all of the options available to us.

所以我們有這個選擇去那裡。我們在這方面已經做好了極為有利的準備。因此，如果您還記得我們的資產負債表在哪裡，我們已經將資產負債表定位為擁有超過 350 億美元的現金。我們有信用額度，如果需要的話可以利用，但這不是我們考慮的事情，因為我們有所有可用的選擇。

So yeah, well positioned to be able to go after wherever we see value, whether that happens to be the buybacks even further or whether that happens to be in terms of acquisitions. Nice position to be in.

所以，是的，我們有能力去追求任何我們所看到的價值，無論是進一步的回購還是收購。處於一個很好的位置。

Thank you, Sinead. Roger, thank you for those questions. Luke, next caller, please.

謝謝你，Sinead。羅傑，謝謝你提出這些問題。路克，有請下一位來電者。

Christopher Kuplent, Bank of America.

美國銀行的克里斯多福·庫普倫特（Christopher Kuplent）。

Two questions from me as well, if I may. And while this is coming from not a cynical place, but you mentioned earlier that perhaps the problem in the past was Shell's culture was happy to accept mediocrity. Maybe I would put it differently and ask you, isn't some of the biggest weaknesses or has been in the past -- I'm always going to call it [cuprous], i.e., we can do this. No one else can.

如果可以的話，我也想問兩個問題。雖然這並不是出於憤世嫉俗，但您之前提到，也許過去的問題在於殼牌的文化樂於接受平庸。也許我會換一種說法並問你，最大的弱點之一不是或過去一直是——我總是稱之為[銅]，即我們可以做到這一點。沒有人可以。

And I want to ask you about the Rotterdam decision that you've taken. Can you give us an update on that,. where you're stepping back from things that perhaps five years ago had been part of the overall Shell ambition? So open question. And as I said, it's not coming from a clinical place.

我想問一下您就鹿特丹會議所做的決定。您能否提供我們最新進展？您是否正在放棄五年前可能還屬於殼牌整體宏偉目標的一部分的事情？所以這個問題尚未解決。正如我所說，它不是來自臨床。

And a second question, perhaps to you, Sinead. You presented just a few weeks ago a marketing capital budget of up to $3 billion. And in the first quarter, I see marketing spent $250 million. What did you do to these people? How much lower can it go in terms of explaining that very light capital allocation in just Q1? Are there any funnies in there? Just a quick follow-up, please.

第二個問題，也許是問你的，Sinead。就在幾週前，您提出了高達 30 億美元的行銷資本預算。我發現第一季的行銷支出為 2.5 億美元。你對這些人做了什麼？要解釋第一季的資本配置非常少的原因，還能低到什麼程度呢？裡面有什麼好笑的事嗎？請快速跟進一下。

You never come from a cynical place, so I absolutely don't have to precede that. Look, from a cultural perspective, you can call it hubris or whatever. I think at the end of the day, what happened was we took quite some risk in particular with our capital allocation that, in retrospect -- as we've done a lot of the reviews to learn -- to learn because there's a lot we've learned over the last 20 years. And a lot of that has actually helped shape the way we're thinking about the organization right now.

你從來都不是憤世嫉俗的人，所以我絕對沒有必要先這麼說。從文化角度來看，你可以稱之為傲慢或其他什麼。我認為，最終我們承擔了相當大的風險，特別是在資本配置方面，現在回想起來，我們已經做了很多回顧，因為在過去的 20 年裡我們學到了很多東西。其中許多實際上幫助塑造了我們現在對組織的看法。

The fact that we have such an incredible technical capability almost meant that we can drive more and more complex projects with an assumption that the risk was going to be linear. And of course, it wasn't. It becomes logarithmic.

事實上，我們擁有如此令人難以置信的技術能力，這幾乎意味著我們可以在風險線性的假設下推動越來越複雜的專案。當然，事實並非如此。它變成對數。

And what typically catches us out is not the theoretical perfection of building a project. It's all the realities around it. It's the supply chain disruptions. It's permitting delays. It's the market changes while we're building this facility. It's the cumulative risk of putting multiple units together and then figuring out that it is more challenged. That is the issue.

通常讓我們感到困惑的並不是建設項目的理論上的完美性。這就是周遭的一切現實。這是供應鏈中斷。它允許延遲。當我們建造這個設施時，市場發生了變化。這是將多個單位放在一起然後發現更具挑戰性的累積風險。這就是問題所在。

So what we have tried to do is to go for much more digestible opportunities and really look at the appropriate risk-adjusted returns for our investments, really become much more forensic. Today, when I get a business proposal, there's a few things that are different than what it was in the past.

因此，我們嘗試做的是尋找更多易於消化的機會，並真正考慮我們投資的適當風險調整回報，真正變得更加嚴謹。如今，當我收到一份商業提案時，我發現有些事情與過去有所不同。

One is we have a full-time red team that is looking at the counterview of why we might be wrong with this to really challenge our basic assumptions. That was something we learned from BG and instituted in Shell, right?

一是，我們有一個專職的紅隊，負責研究我們可能犯錯的原因，以真正挑戰我們的基本假設。這是我們從 BG 學到並在殼牌實行的做法，對嗎？

The second thing we do is we look at track record. What is our track record in that space? And the third thing we do is, what is the alternative use of that capital?

我們做的第二件事是查看業績記錄。我們在該領域的業績如何？我們要做的第三件事是，這些資本還有什麼其他用途？

In the context of the Rotterdam project, to be specific on what you described, yes, we looked at the market around us. We saw length in biofuels, in particular, coming from the US. We saw backtracking on mandates in Europe, and we saw a volatile environment.

在鹿特丹計畫的背景下，具體到您所描述的，是的，我們研究了我們周圍的市場。我們看到生物燃料市場前景廣闊，尤其是來自美國的市場。我們看到歐洲的授權出現倒退，我們看到環境動盪。

And to simply just plow on and put more capital is not wise capital allocation. We have a responsibility. Sinead and I have a duty of care to our shareholders in the way we discharge their capital. And that's why we felt at the time -- we paused it, and it's still under pause as we look at the broader environment around us and what we can do with the project to see whether we are able to justify investing more in it. Sinead?

而單純地繼續投入更多資本並不是明智的資本配置。我們有責任。Sinead 和我有責任以謹慎的方式履行股東的義務。這就是我們當時的感受——我們暫停了這個項目，現在我們仍然處於暫停狀態，因為我們要看看周圍更廣泛的環境，以及我們可以對這個項目做些什麼，看看我們是否有理由對它進行更多的投資。西妮德？

And I think actually, a lot of what you said is particularly relevant here in terms of marketing. So Chris, if you were to look back at, of course, Q1 last year as well, what we have seen, of course, then was that it was the lowest CapEx spend for the year as well. So Q1 tends to be for marketing much lower than elsewhere.

我認為實際上，您所說的內容很多與行銷方面特別相關。所以克里斯，如果你回顧一下，當然，去年第一季也是如此，我們當然會看到，那也是當年最低的資本支出。因此，第一季的行銷支出往往比其他地方低得多。

So I wouldn't say we've done anything per your use of phrasing. To the team, it's more actually -- they're really stepping up. And exactly where Wael went to, they're very much focused on just what are the alternative uses. And they've raised the bar themselves.

因此，我不會說我們按照你的措辭做了任何事情。對於團隊來說，這實際上意味著他們確實在進步。而 Wael 所去的地方，他們非常關注的是替代用途。他們自己也提高了標準。

So part of it is raising the bar, and the other part is the dynamic capital allocation. You mentioned actually one of the earlier ones. They're very clear that it's not their CapEx. So that's a bit of a change from it in the past as well. It's much more it's about the group and what can we do with that.

因此，一部分是提高標準，另一部分是動態資本配置。您實際上提到了較早的一個。他們非常清楚這不是他們的資本支出。所以這與過去相比也有一些變化。這更多的是關於團隊以及我們能用團隊做什麼。

So we're not being dogmatic about where we put the CapEx. We're looking at one of the comparatives, exactly what you said. Should we be doing buybacks? Should we be holding it? Are there more opportunities in Upstream as an example as well?

因此，我們對於資本支出的投入並不教條。我們正在研究其中一個比較，正如你所說的。我們應該回購嗎？我們應該持有它嗎？舉例來說，上游領域是否也存在更多機會？

Thank you, Sinead. Chris, thank you for those questions. Luke, next caller, please.

謝謝你，Sinead。克里斯，謝謝你提出這些問題。路克，有請下一位來電者。

Lucas Herman, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的盧卡斯·赫爾曼。

A couple, if I may. Just wanted to touch on chemicals. And you've mentioned certain assets are up strategic review. I just wondered whether -- how the market or the broader chemical market responded to those comments and where you were left.

如果可以的話，一對。只是想談談化學品。您提到某些資產正在進行策略審查。我只是想知道——市場或更廣泛的化學品市場對這些評論作何反應，以及您對此有何看法。

And in line with that, your guidance on utilization for this quarter was 74% to 82%. Especially, should I think of that as being unusually low? I know it's not dissimilar to the last quarter, but I guess I'm slightly surprised that perhaps the levels aren't increasing.

與此一致，您對本季利用率的指導為 74% 至 82%。尤其是，我是否應該認為這異常低？我知道這與上一季沒有什麼不同，但我想我有點驚訝，也許水平並沒有增加。

And beyond that, a really simple one for you, Sinead, just on disclose. I suspect you're trying to simplify things, but a lot of the marketing sheets have disappeared. So I presume it's intentional. But one of the numbers or some of the numbers that have disappeared as well are the breakdown of net income by mobility, lubes, techs and decarb, which makes life monitoring return on capital, et cetera, exceptionally challenging. Intentional or just omission?

除此之外，Sinead，還有一個非常簡單的問題需要您透露。我猜想您正在嘗試簡化事情，但許多行銷表已經消失了。所以我推測這是故意的。但其中一個數字或一些已經消失的數字是按流動性、潤滑油、技術和脫碳對淨收入的細分，這使得生命監測資本回報等變得異常具有挑戰性。是故意的還是只是疏忽？

Nothing that Sinead does is omission there, Lucas, but I'll leave her to respond to that. Chemicals -- I think just to reground us all, macro conditions continue to be very challenged and likely will be challenged for the coming months and years, in particular, as we see the buildup in China.

盧卡斯，西尼德所做的一切都不是疏忽，但我會讓她對此做出回應。化學物質－我認為，讓我們大家重新認識一下，宏觀環境繼續面臨巨大挑戰，並且在未來幾個月和幾年內可能仍將面臨挑戰，特別是我們看到中國經濟的崛起。

And so what we get to is a strategic decision to be able to move forward in that regional approach that we outlined in Capital Markets Day 2025 and looking at how we can do that. We didn't -- you didn't hear us talking about an outright divestment because of those difficult conditions. And we talked about strategic and partnership opportunities to be able to do that.

因此，我們做出的是一個策略決策，能夠推進我們在 2025 年資本市場日中概述的區域方法，並研究如何做到這一點。我們沒有——你沒有聽到我們談論由於這些困難條件而徹底撤資。我們討論了實現這一目標的策略和合作機會。

Now since, of course, we went public with Capital Markets Day 2025, I'm pleased to report that there are -- we have had a lot of inbounds of interest. And we're in the midst of a process right now to be able to have those discussions because this is not a simple who is bidding highest for this. This is much more of a discussion around, what is the structure that is going to make sense for us? What are the exposures we want to see? And we will take our time.

當然，自從我們公開宣布「2025 年資本市場日」以來，我很高興地報告，我們已經收到了很多感興趣的資訊。我們現在正處於進行這些討論的過程中，因為這並不是簡單誰出價最高的問題。這更多的是關於什麼樣的結構對我們來說是有意義的？我們希望看到的曝光內容是什麼？我們會慢慢來。

We have said we want to take through the coming years to be able to make sure we get the best deal for our shareholders. And that is something we will honor because this is not -- by any stretch of the imagination do we want it to be a fire sale. This has to be value creating for us to the best of our abilities.

我們說過，我們希望在未來幾年內確保為股東爭取最好的交易。我們會尊重這一點，因為無論如何我們都不希望這是賤賣。這必須盡我們所能為我們創造價值。

On your point around the 74% to 82%, what, of course, is always challenging when we give these numbers is we're basing it on our assumption around where do we actually want to have the facilities running and where are we switching it off. Because right now, the margins mean that we are cash negative. And so that's why you continue to see us in the way we report it.

關於您提到的 74% 到 82% 這個數字，當然，當我們給出這些數字時，總是具有挑戰性的，因為我們是基於我們的假設，即我們實際上希望在哪裡運行這些設施，以及我們在哪裡關閉它。因為現在，利潤率意味著我們的現金為負。這就是為什麼你們會繼續看到我們以這樣的方式報道。

This is a choice points where we actually switch off certain units to be able to make sure that we're not bleeding cash when we can avoid it. And the biggest, of course, indicator of all is what's happening in Shell Polymers Monaca. I can say that in Shell Polymers Monaca, the performance continues to be strong in the way they are producing. And there, it's a question of continuing to premiumize the sales of our products. Sinead?

這是一個選擇點，我們實際上關閉了某些單元，以確保在可以避免的情況下不會出現現金流失。當然，最大的指標是殼牌聚合物莫納卡工廠發生的事情。我可以說，殼牌聚合物莫納卡的生產方式持續保持強勁表現。而問題在於持續提升我們產品銷售的品質。西妮德？

Indeed. And Lucas, indeed, it was intentional. It wasn't by omission. And you're spot on. It was very much about focusing in on just simplifying our reporting. So it's both an acknowledgment of how much we give in terms of disclosure just an awful lot of data that many people don't use and relative to our peers. But probably more importantly, it was about actually just the work that goes into producing it.

的確。而盧卡斯確實這麼做是故意的。這並不是疏忽。你說得完全正確。這主要是為了簡化我們的報告。因此，這不僅承認我們在揭露方面提供了多少數據，而且這些數據是許多人不使用的，並且相對於我們的同行而言。但可能更重要的是，它實際上只是與生產它所需的工作有關。

So for us, what we've done is we've given you the subsegment for marketing at the adjusted EBITDA level. So you get that quarterly. And of course, we give you the capital employed also at that subsegment level annually, which is when it really matters, given the level of CapEx that we've got coming through.

因此，對我們來說，我們所做的就是按照調整後的 EBITDA 等級為您提供行銷子部分。所以你每季都會收到這個訊息。當然，我們每年也會向您提供該子部門層面所使用的資本，考慮到我們已經經歷的資本支出水平，這一點確實很重要。

That's important, of course, to you that you can see exactly per your point, back to that ROACE disclosures or the targets or the views, ambitions of where we wanted to go to later on. So you can see that coming through and you can measure us against it.

當然，這對您來說很重要，因為您可以準確地看到您的觀點，回到 ROACE 揭露或目標或觀點，以及我們以後想要達到的目標。因此，您可以看到這一點，並可以據此衡量我們。

But one of the -- just without boring you on the detail, Lucas, we were really struggling with being able to give some sensible allocations of things like tax between mobility versus lubricants versus biofuels, for instance, in a specific country. It just didn't make sense. We were spending so much time and effort and cost on doing it versus the value that you get out of it. So nothing more than that than a simplification effort.

但其中之一——盧卡斯，我不想讓你厭煩細節，我們確實在努力對某些東西進行合理的分配，例如在特定國家對機動車、潤滑油和生物燃料徵收的稅款。這根本說不通。我們為此花費了大量的時間、精力和成本，但從中獲得的價值卻微乎其微。因此，這只不過是一種簡化的努力。

Thanks, Sinead. Lucas, thank you for those questions. And Luke, can we go to the next question, please?

謝謝，Sinead。盧卡斯，謝謝你提出這些問題。路克，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特（Doug Leggate），沃爾夫研究公司。

Wael, you and Sinead, I know you talked earlier about the importance of per share growth targets, the 10% you talked about earlier. But there is an underlying assumption in there, which is a flat real oil price at $70 and a buyback pace.

Wael，你和 Sinead，我知道你們之前談到了每股成長目標的重要性，也就是你們之前提到的 10%。但其中有一個潛在的假設，即實際油價穩定在 70 美元，回購速度穩定。

So my question is, to what extent would you be prepared to lean on the balance sheet to maintain the current buyback pace? And if not, what would that mean then for your per share targets if the flat real oil price scenario did not play out? And I've got a quick follow-up, please.

所以我的問題是，您準備好在多大程度上依靠資產負債表來維持目前的回購速度？如果不是，那麼如果實際油價持平的情景沒有發生，這對您的每股目標意味著什麼？請跟進一下。

Good. Well, I'll say a few words and then, Sinead, if you want to pitch in to this last question as well. Look, I think there's a few things there, Doug, that you touch on. Firstly, the 5% to 7% that we're assuming is going to be the buybacks that are underpinning the per share growth.

好的。好吧，我會說幾句話，然後，Sinead，如果你也想回答這個最後一個問題。聽著，道格，我認為你提到了一些事情。首先，我們假設 5% 至 7% 的回購將支撐每股成長。

If anything, at the moment, of course, we're on the upside to that. Because what's happening is, as we see that our shares are even more advantaged in today's environment, we continue to be able to buy back at healthy levels. And therefore, I would like us -- I'd like to see us achieving comfortably that 5% to 7% going forward.

如果有什麼不同的話，那麼目前我們當然處於有利地位。因為現在的情況是，我們看到我們的股票在今天的環境下更具優勢，我們能夠繼續以健康的水平回購。因此，我希望我們——我希望看到我們未來能夠輕鬆實現 5% 到 7% 的目標。

To the fundamental of your question -- to the fundament of your question around, are we comfortable leaving on the balance sheet? Yes. Sinead said it. I've said it. I mean, we have built a balance sheet for the purpose of being able to transact on a daily basis with our big trading [at it], but also to be able to do exactly this at exactly this point in time, which is create shareholder value.

對於您問題的基本內容—對於您問題的基本內容，我們是否願意將其留在資產負債表上？是的。Sinead 說過。我已經說過了。我的意思是，我們建立資產負債表的目的是為了能夠每天進行大規模交易，同時也是為了能夠在此時此刻做到這一點，也就是創造股東價值。

Whether that shareholder value is best created through more buybacks or whether that shareholder value is created through an inorganic or the like, that's what we talk about dynamic capital allocation. Important not to forget the other part, the top line of the free cash flow per share growth, right?

無論股東價值是透過更多回購來創造，還是透過無機資本等方式來創造，這就是我們所說的動態資本配置。重要的是不要忘記另一部分，即每股自由現金流成長的頂線，對嗎？

That top line still has a lot of running room, as I mentioned earlier, that is not correlated to oil price. And that's not even including elements like our integrated gas portfolio and what growth it's going to give us and, and, and. Just the downstream renewables upside that we have and the self-help on both OpEx and CapEx is what will underpin that 10%-plus that we continue to see resilient through much lower oil prices as well. Did you want to add to that before --

正如我之前提到的，營收仍有很大的成長空間，這與油價無關。這甚至還不包括我們的綜合天然氣組合等要素以及它將為我們帶來的成長等等。正是我們所擁有的下游再生能源的優勢以及營運支出和資本支出方面的自助能力，才能夠支撐我們繼續看到 10% 以上的增長，即使在油價大幅下跌的情況下也能保持彈性。你之前想補充一下嗎--

I think the only thing I would say is just to reinforce. The balance sheet has been positioned. The portfolio has been positioned. That's exactly what we've been doing over the last couple of years.

我想我唯一想說的就是強調。資產負債表已定位。投資組合已定位。這正是我們過去幾年一直在做的事。

So in terms of the portfolio, even just Singapore divestment that we alluded to or discussed earlier, Doug, that is not about flat price. By taking that out -- we've talked about the fact it was loss-making. That is actually loss-making assets that comes out and therefore, increases the free cash flow as it comes out. That's totally irrelevant to -- or totally disregarding price.

因此，就投資組合而言，即使只是我們之前提到或討論過的新加坡撤資，道格，這也與固定價格無關。透過將其取出——我們已經討論了它虧損的事實。這實際上是虧損資產的產生，因此，它的產生會增加自由現金流。這與價格完全無關——或者完全不考慮價格。

That will happen anyway, OpEx, CapEx, which, Wael, you mentioned. And then in terms of the balance sheet, just to remind you, we're sitting at 7% gearing if I exclude leases. So we are very well positioned to be able to lean on that balance sheet. And you've seen us do it before in the quarters where we've needed to, and we will continue to do so.

無論如何，這都會發生，OpEx、CapEx，正如 Wael 您所提到的。然後就資產負債表而言，提醒一下，如果不包括租賃，我們的負債比率是 7%。因此，我們完全有能力依賴該資產負債表。你們已經看到我們在以前需要的時候就這樣做過，而且我們將繼續這樣做。

Thank you, Sinead. Doug, did I hear you saying you had something else?

謝謝你，Sinead。道格，我有沒有聽到你說你還有別的東西？

Yeah. Very quick follow-up is -- hopefully, my second question. And it's on the $5 billion to $7 billion cost savings. I just wondered very quickly why or if you could tell us where you are on that range now that you've had the portfolio changes in Nigeria and Singapore, as Sinead just mentioned. I'm just trying to figure out how much of the 5% to 7% is portfolio related and where you would consider to be on the run rate of that today.

是的。非常快速的後續問題是──希望這是我的第二個問題。並且節省了 50 億至 70 億美元的成本。我只是很快地想知道為什麼，或者您是否可以告訴我們，既然您在尼日利亞和新加坡的投資組合已經發生變化，那麼您現在處於那個範圍內的哪個位置，正如 Sinead 剛才提到的。我只是想弄清楚 5% 到 7% 中有多少與投資組合相關，以及您認為今天的運行率是多少。

Did you want to take that last one, Sinead?

你想拿最後一個嗎，Sinead？

Yeah. I think I'll keep it simple, Doug. The $3 billion already delivered by the end of 2024 was in effect. As you know, the first year was much more on the portfolio side. The second year was much more moving towards actually just structural changes.

是的。我想我會保持簡單，道格。截至 2024 年底已交付的 30 億美元已生效。如您所知，第一年我們主要關注的是投資組合方面。第二年實際上更多地轉向結構性變化。

We'll give you a formal update at the end of Q2. But what we see primarily into the second part, which goes towards delivering the 5% to 7%, is much more about the way and the changes through the companies or the way we run the company. But taking out both of those assets has removed several hundreds of millions from OpEx.

我們將在第二季末向您提供正式更新。但我們主要看到的第二部分，即實現 5% 至 7% 的目標，更多的是關於公司的方式和變化，或我們經營公司的方式。但去除這兩項資產已經減少了數億美元的營運支出。

That will only happen, of course, as you run through the year. It's not as though it happens immediately because, of course, there are both internal changes and people need to move over as to the assets. So good progress. And yeah, convinced that we will deliver our targets.

當然，這只有在你度過這一年時才會發生。這並不是說它會立即發生，因為當然，既有內部變化，也有人員需要轉移到資產上。進展非常好。是的，我們堅信我們能夠實現我們的目標。

Thank you very much, Sinead. Thank you for that, Doug. I think that brings us to the end. Thank you all for your questions and for joining this call.

非常感謝，Sinead。謝謝你，道格。我想我們就到此為止了。感謝大家的提問和參加本次電話會議。

In conclusion, we delivered a solid set of results in this first quarter and announced another $3.5 billion of share buybacks, which makes this the 14th quarters in a row with announced buybacks of at least $3 billion. Looking ahead, given our track record of delivery and our strong balance sheet, we head into the rest of the year with confidence as we continue to deliver more value with less emissions.

總而言之，我們在第一季取得了穩健的業績，並宣布再次回購 35 億美元的股票，這使我們連續第 14 個季度宣布回購至少 30 億美元。展望未來，鑑於我們交付的記錄和強勁的資產負債表，我們將滿懷信心地迎接今年剩餘的時間，繼續以更少的排放創造更多的價值。

Wishing you all a very pleasant weekend. Thank you for joining us and look forward to catching up again soon. Thank you.

祝大家週末愉快。感謝您的參與，期待很快再次相聚。謝謝。