(PYPL) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

PayPal 召開 2023 年第三季財報電話會議,討論其業績和未來計畫。該公司報告收入成長 9%,非 GAAP 每股收益成長 20%,超出了預期。他們的活躍帳戶數有所下降,但總支付量和交易收入卻有所增長。

PayPal 產生了 11 億美元的自由現金流,並計劃分配 50 億美元用於其股票回購計畫。他們預計第四季營收將成長 7% 至 8%,並預計 2023 年營收成長約為 8.5%。該公司專注於支援小型企業、投資成長和有效管理費用。

他們對 Venmo 的潛力持樂觀態度,並計劃擴展其服務。 PayPal 致力於取得成功,並計劃增加高級人才以加速成長。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good evening. My name is Krista, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the PayPal Holdings Earnings Conference Call for the Third Quarter 2023. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Ryan Wallace, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    晚安.我叫克里斯塔,今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。現在,我歡迎大家參加 PayPal Holdings 2023 年第三季收益電話會議。(操作員說明)我現在想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人,投資者關係主管 Ryan Wallace。請繼續。

  • Ryan Ward Wallace - Senior Director of IR

    Ryan Ward Wallace - Senior Director of IR

  • Thank you. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. Welcome to PayPal's Earnings Conference Call for the Third Quarter of 2023. Joining me today on the call is Alex Chriss, our President and CEO; and Gabrielle Rabinovitch, SVP and Acting CFO. We're providing a slide presentation to accompany our commentary. This conference call is also being webcast. Both the presentation and call are available on our Investor Relations website.

    謝謝。下午好,感謝您加入我們。歡迎參加 PayPal 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的總裁兼執行長 Alex Chriss;以及資深副總裁兼代理財務長 Gabrielle Rabinovitch。我們將提供幻燈片演示來配合我們的評論。這次電話會議也進行了網路直播。演示和電話會議均可在我們的投資者關係網站上查看。

  • In discussing our company's performance, we will refer to some non-GAAP measures. You can find the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the presentation accompanying this conference call. We will make forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations, forecasts and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. These statements include, without limitation, our guidance for the third quarter and full year 2023, our planning assumptions for 2023, our comments related to anticipated foreign exchange rates, operating margin, impacts from our sale of loans to KKR and share repurchase activity.

    在討論我們公司的表現時,我們將參考一些非公認會計準則衡量標準。您可以在本次電話會議隨附的簡報中找到這些非 GAAP 衡量標準與最直接可比較的 GAAP 衡量標準的對帳。我們將根據我們目前的預期、預測和假設做出前瞻性陳述,並涉及風險和不確定性。這些聲明包括但不限於我們對2023 年第三季和全年的指導、我們對2023 年的計劃假設、我們對預期匯率、營業利潤率、我們向KKR 出售貸款和股票回購活動的影響的評論。

  • Our actual results may differ materially from these statements. You can find more information about risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our results in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC and available on our Investor Relations website. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. All information in this presentation is as of today's date, November 1, 2023. We expressly disclaim any obligation to update this information. And with that, let me turn the call over to Alex.

    我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。您可以在我們向SEC 提交並可在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱的最新10-K 表格年度報告和10-Q 表格季度報告中找到有關風險、不確定性和其他可能影響我們業績的因素的更多資訊。您不應過度依賴任何前瞻性陳述。本簡報中的所有資訊均截至今天(2023 年 11 月 1 日)。我們明確表示不承擔更新此資訊的義務。接下來,讓我把電話轉給亞歷克斯。

  • James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

    James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Ryan, and thank you to everyone for joining us this afternoon. It is a pleasure to speak with you all on today's call, my first as President and CEO of PayPal. Before I dive in, I'd like to take a moment to thank my predecessor, Dan Schulman, for his diligence and professionalism in handing over the reins and helping me onboard quickly. Additionally, I'm very excited to welcome Jamie Miller to PayPal as the company's next Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝瑞安,也謝謝大家今天下午加入我們。很高興在今天的電話會議上與大家交談,這是我作為 PayPal 總裁兼執行長的第一次電話會議。在正式開始之前,我想花點時間感謝我的前任丹舒爾曼 (Dan Schulman),感謝他在移交權力並幫助我迅速上任時表現出的勤奮和專業精神。此外,我非常高興地歡迎傑米·米勒 (Jamie Miller) 加入 PayPal,擔任公司下一任財務長。

  • Jamie will officially be joining PayPal on November 6. Jamie is a world-class CFO, who joins us with decades of experience in both senior finance and operations roles at a number of different Fortune 100 and private companies, including GE and Cargill and was most recently CFO of EY. Jamie is a vital addition to our team. Under Jamie's leadership, I have no doubt that we will drive the financial discipline, necessary efficiencies and operational excellence our company requires. I look forward to introducing Jamie to you over the coming months, and you will also hear from her, of course, on our next earnings call.

    Jamie 將於11 月6 日正式加入PayPal。Jamie 是一位世界級的首席財務官,他在加入我們時擁有數十年在多家不同的財富100 強公司和私營公司(包括GE 和嘉吉)擔任高階財務和營運職位的經驗,並且是最出色的財務長。最近擔任安永財務長。傑米是我們團隊的重要補充。在傑米的領導下,我毫不懷疑我們將推動公司所需的財務紀律、必要的效率和卓越營運。我期待在接下來的幾個月向您介紹傑米,當然,您也會在我們的下一次財報電話會議上聽到她的消息。

  • As excited as we are to welcome Jamie, I also want to take a moment to express my sincere thanks to Gabrielle for all her hard work, dedication and passion as Interim and then Acting CFO. She's helped drive the company forward and has been instrumental in helping me get up to speed over the past couple of months. I truly appreciate her partnership as well as her commitment to PayPal and look forward to working with her during this next chapter of PayPal's journey.

    我們非常高興地歡迎 Jamie,但我也想花一點時間向 Gabrielle 表示衷心的感謝,感謝她作為臨時財務長和後來的代理財務長所做的辛勤工作、奉獻精神和熱情。在過去的幾個月裡,她幫助推動了公司的發展,並幫助我加快了步伐。我衷心感謝她的合作夥伴關係以及她對 PayPal 的承諾,並期待在 PayPal 旅程的下一個篇章中與她合作。

  • Okay, let's jump in. When I was asked by the Board to take on the CEO role, I was so energized by the possibilities of the impact PayPal can have on the world. I've dedicated the last 19 years of my career to fighting for the underdog. Helping consumers and small businesses around the world achieve their dreams, interact with each other and build a better life. PayPal takes that mission to a whole new level. The assets, the data, the scale and the brand, the full foundation of what PayPal sits on today is unrivaled. And for me, that is the opportunity of a lifetime.

    好吧,讓我們開始吧。當董事會要求我擔任執行長時,我對 PayPal 對世界產生影響的可能性感到非常興奮。在我職業生涯的最後 19 年裡,我一直致力於為弱者而戰。幫助世界各地的消費者和小型企業實現夢想,彼此互動,建立更美好的生活。 PayPal 將這項使命提升到了一個全新的水平。資產、數據、規模和品牌,是 PayPal 今天賴以生存的完整基礎,是無與倫比的。對我來說,這是一生難得的機會。

  • I am also walking in eyes wide open. There are clearly challenges to tackle. I am someone who speaks plainly and transparently. If we are doing things well, I will highlight them. If there are things we can do better and need to fix, then I will have no hesitation in calling those out, too. Our innovation activity has accelerated but we still have work to do on maximizing our impact for our customers and results. Competition and complexity have increased and the company's focus has not been clear.

    我也睜著眼睛走在路上。顯然還有一些挑戰需要處理。我是一個說話簡單、透明的人。如果我們做得很好,我會強調它們。如果有一些事情我們可以做得更好並且需要解決,那麼我也會毫不猶豫地提出這些問題。我們的創新活動已經加速,但我們仍有工作要做,以最大限度地提高對客戶和成果的影響。競爭和複雜性增加,公司的重點尚不明確。

  • We are doing a lot of things but are we focused enough with our resource allocation? Are we executing with excellence behind the most important work to provide customers with a compelling and differentiated value proposition? Are we partnering with customers in a way that brings them deep value but also rewards the PayPal shareholder? These are questions I am maniacally focused on answering with the team and doing a better job of executing across the board.

    我們正在做很多事情,但我們對資源分配是否夠重視?我們是否在最重要的工作背後精實求精地執行,為顧客提供引人注目的差異化價值主張?我們與客戶的合作方式是否能為他們帶來深刻的價值,同時也回報 PayPal 股東?我瘋狂地專注於與團隊一起回答這些問題,並更好地全面執行。

  • But let me be clear, notwithstanding those realities, this is a growth company with great prospects. Even within the first month on the job, I am more energized and have more conviction and clarity than I expected over how we win. We have significant opportunities for growth and impact. The foundation is strong and the value pools and growth vectors are there. We must simply execute better and with higher velocity, and we will.

    但我要澄清的是,儘管有這些現實,這是一家具有廣闊前景的成長型公司。即使在上任的第一個月裡,我也比我預期的更有活力,對我們如何獲勝更有信心和清晰。我們擁有巨大的成長機會和影響力。基礎紮實,價值池和成長向量就在那裡。我們必須以更快的速度更好地執行,我們會的。

  • I'd now like to share with you all my onboarding process and what I've learned and observed so far. Then I will describe changes you will see going forward and, lastly, I'll set expectations for what you will see from us over the next few quarters. While I have only been here a little over 4 weeks, I've been conducting in-depth conversations with internal and external stakeholders, including employees, customers, partners and investors and diving into the business with our products and go-to-market teams. The feedback has been encouraging, exciting, revealing and very clear.

    現在我想與大家分享我所有的入職流程以及迄今為止我所學到和觀察到的內容。然後我將描述您將看到的未來​​變化,最後,我將為您在接下來的幾個季度中看到的我們設定期望。雖然我在這裡的時間只有 4 週多一點,但我一直在與內部和外部利益相關者(包括員工、客戶、合作夥伴和投資者)進行深入對話,並深入了解我們的產品和上市團隊的業務。回饋是令人鼓舞的、令人興奮的、啟發性的、非常明確的。

  • There are 2 lenses I've had in synthesizing the input. First, how do we differentiate in solving the most critical customer problems? Second, what are our unique growth vectors and how do we accelerate our impact for customers and shareholders? Before I run through my thoughts after 30 days, first, let me say I've been surprised and delighted with how consistent and clear the answers to the previous questions have become. We are not searching for ideas for tremendous growth. Our assets and our position in the market are incredible. We know exactly what needs to be done. We simply must execute.

    我使用了 2 個鏡頭來合成輸入。首先,我們如何在解決最關鍵的客戶問題方面脫穎而出?其次,我們獨特的成長載體是什麼?我們如何加速對客戶和股東的影響?在回顧 30 天後的想法之前,首先我要說的是,我對先前問題的答案變得如此一致和清晰感到驚訝和高興。我們並不是在尋找實現巨大成長的想法。我們的資產和市場地位令人難以置信。我們確切地知道需要做什麼。我們必須執行。

  • To give you some additional context, here are a few of my initial observations: On our employees, our people are kind, caring, dynamic, innovative and engaged. They care deeply about our customers and one another and are energized by our mission. My focus is to clearly define our mission, vision and purpose and unleash this team to execute a clearly defined and durable strategy. We will establish and refocus systems and processes to galvanize the entire organization behind our purpose and growth outcomes.

    為了給您一些額外的背景信息,以下是我的一些初步觀察: 在我們的員工方面,我們的員工友善、關懷、充滿活力、創新和敬業。他們深切關心我們的客戶和彼此,並激勵我們的使命。我的重點是明確定義我們的使命、願景和目的,並激發團隊執行明確且持久的策略。我們將建立並重新調整系統和流程的重點,以激勵整個組織支持我們的目標和成長成果。

  • On our customers and innovation, I generally see our customers falling into 3 categories: consumers, small businesses and large enterprises. When looking at our customers through this lens, each segment has unique assets and a multitude of growth opportunities. I've been encouraged by how much innovation our teams are delivering, but we have an opportunity to, A, focus our teams on what's most important to these customers; and B, package our innovation in a way that is clear and differentiates us in the market.

    關於我們的客戶和創新,我通常認為我們的客戶分為三類:消費者、小型企業和大型企業。從這個角度審視我們的客戶時,每個細分市場都有獨特的資產和大量的成長機會。我對我們的團隊所提供的大量創新感到鼓舞,但我們有機會,A,讓我們的團隊專注於對這些客戶來說最重要的事情; B、以一種清晰的方式包裝我們的創新,並使我們在市場上脫穎而出。

  • Let me give you some examples. For consumers, we have not only tremendous breadth, mind share and wallet share of our consumers but these are active and engaged users. In the U.S. alone, over 70% of the adult population has used PayPal in the past 5 years. Let me say that again. Over 70% of adults in the U.S. have used PayPal in the past 5 years. And with the recent launch of our Venmo Teen Account, we are now seeing adoption of our core products and services across the entire addressable market in the U.S. Additionally, we've innovated with unique products and experiences for consumers that each on their own provide tremendous customer benefit.

    讓我舉一些例子。對於消費者來說,我們不僅擁有龐大的消費者廣度、思想份額和錢包份額,而且這些用戶都是活躍且參與的用戶。光是在美國,就有超過 70% 的成年人在過去 5 年中使用過 PayPal。讓我再說一次。超過 70% 的美國成年人在過去 5 年中使用過 PayPal。隨著我們最近推出的Venmo Teen Account,我們現在看到我們的核心產品和服務在美國整個潛在市場得到採用。此外,我們還為消費者提供了獨特的產品和體驗,這些產品和體驗為每個消費者提供了巨大的優勢客戶利益。

  • For example, our PayPal Cashback Mastercard provides 3% cash back on PayPal purchases as well as cash back on all other purchases. Customers with this card make, on average, 56 more purchases with PayPal in the year after they adopt the product than they did the year before. Over 25 million consumers have used PayPal Rewards in the past 12 months, and we've put more than $200 million back in our customers' pockets with cashback and savings during that time.

    例如,我們的 PayPal 現金回饋萬事達卡為 PayPal 購買提供 3% 的現金回饋,並為所有其他購買提供現金回饋。使用卡片的客戶在採用該產品後的一年內透過 PayPal 進行的購買次數平均比前一年多 56 次。在過去 12 個月裡,超過 2,500 萬消費者使用了 PayPal Rewards,在此期間,我們已透過現金回饋和儲蓄將超過 2 億美元返還給客戶的口袋。

  • But even more interesting, through our Rewards product, we have an active database of over 300 million SKUs of inventory from our merchant partners. These data points can help us use AI to power a robust shopping recommendation engine, to provide more relevant rewards and savings back to our customers.

    但更有趣的是,透過我們的獎勵產品,我們擁有一個活躍的資料庫,其中包含來自我們的商業合作夥伴的超過 3 億個 SKU 的庫存。這些數據點可以幫助我們使用人工智慧來驅動強大的購物推薦引擎,為我們的客戶提供更相關的獎勵和節省。

  • We've just begun and already rolled out passkeys to more than 10 million consumers globally to reduce friction in the sign-in experience. We've added additional security features by providing fraud alerts for all your cards in the PayPal Wallet. We're gaining ubiquity both online and in person as our PayPal and Venmo-branded credit and debit cards can now be added in the Apple and Google Wallets. And we've launched the first regulated stablecoin by a global payments company in PYUSD, connecting our PayPal and Venmo ecosystems together and creating one of the most robust peer-to-peer networks in the world.

    我們剛開始並已經向全球超過 1000 萬消費者推出了密鑰,以減少登入體驗中的摩擦。我們透過為 PayPal 錢包中的所有卡片提供詐騙警報來添加額外的安全功能。我們的 PayPal 和 Venmo 品牌信用卡和金融卡現在可以添加到 Apple 和 Google 錢包中,因此無論是在網路上還是在實體店,我們都變得越來越普及。我們還以 PYUSD 推出了全球支付公司第一個受監管的穩定幣,將我們的 PayPal 和 Venmo 生態系統連接在一起,並創建了世界上最強大的點對點網路之一。

  • Individually, these are each incredible innovations, but we have not yet brought them all together into a cohesive, integrated and seamless customer experience and value proposition. As I said at the beginning, we have brand awareness and reach consumers in most markets around the world. They know PayPal and they are rooting for us. It is our responsibility to now put together these innovations into a world-class, seamless experience, and that is exactly what we're going to do. As an example, we have refocused our consumer product and go-to-market team to relaunch a brand-new, end-to-end consumer experience with checkout at the center that will bring value to consumers with every single purchase. We will make it abundantly clear why choose PayPal. This is the first core priority I've asked the teams to focus on.

    單獨來看,這些都是令人難以置信的創新,但我們尚未將它們全部整合成一個有凝聚力、整合且無縫的客戶體驗和價值主張。正如我一開始所說,我們擁有品牌知名度,並涵蓋全球大多數市場的消費者。他們了解 PayPal 並且支持我們。我們現在有責任將這些創新整合成世界級的無縫體驗,而這正是我們要做的。例如,我們重新調整了消費產品和上市團隊的重點,以重新推出以結帳為中心的全新的端到端消費者體驗,這將為消費者的每次購買帶來價值。我們將非常清楚地說明為什麼選擇 PayPal。這是我要求團隊關注的第一個核心優先事項。

  • Next, for small businesses. The core customer problem we can solve is helping them get more customers. From a breadth and depth perspective, we again have tremendous reach. We serve approximately 35 million merchant accounts and the vast majorities are SMBs. We have recently launched our new PayPal Complete Payments solution in the market. This solution helps small businesses sell globally and accept a range of payments, including PayPal, Venmo and PayPal Pay Later products to help drive checkout. We provide SMBs the tools to transact globally and are innovating for them with critical services such as package tracking. Package tracking is now live with over 5,000 merchants on BigCommerce, Blue Commerce and UltraCart. Early results show merchants are experiencing an 80% decrease in item not received disputes, 40% higher dispute wins and 65% faster funds release.

    接下來,對於小型企業。我們能解決的核心客戶問題是幫助他們獲得更多客戶。從廣度和深度的角度來看,我們再次擁有巨大的影響力。我們為大約 3500 萬個商家帳戶提供服務,其中絕大多數是中小型企業。我們最近在市場上推出了新的 PayPal Complete Payments 解決方案。此解決方案可協助小型企業在全球範圍內進行銷售並接受一系列付款,包括 PayPal、Venmo 和 PayPal Pay Later 產品,以協助推動結帳。我們為中小型企業提供全球交易工具,並透過包裹追蹤等關鍵服務為他們進行創新。 BigCommerce、Blue Commerce 和 UltraCart 上的 5,000 多家商家現已支援包裹追蹤。早期結果顯示,商家未收到商品的爭議減少了 80%,爭議獲勝率提高了 40%,資金發放速度加快了 65%。

  • This is a good start, but what really gets me excited is how all of our profile and payment data comes together to empower each of our merchants to improve their conversion rates via our next-generation checkout while making our consumers check out experiences more efficient. We've just rolled this product out to a handful of pilot merchants. And with the breadth of our consumer coverage, we are able to identify the majority of consumers that visit our merchant's site. That means we can autofill payment information for consumers and streamline guest checkout for our merchants.

    這是一個好的開始,但真正讓我興奮的是我們所有的個人資料和支付數據如何整合在一起,使我們的每個商家能夠透過我們的下一代結帳方式提高轉換率,同時使我們的消費者結帳體驗更有效率。我們剛剛向少數試點商家推出了該產品。憑藉我們的消費者覆蓋範圍,我們能夠識別訪問我們商家網站的大多數消費者。這意味著我們可以為消費者自動填寫付款信息,並為我們的商家簡化客人結帳流程。

  • To serve small businesses with our best-in-class product, we must get PayPal Complete Payments to scale globally. This is the second core priority I have asked our product and go-to-market teams to rally behind. And you will see us with a concerted push to dramatically improve the end-to-end PayPal Complete Payments product rollout and adoption in the next couple of quarters. Once we've accomplished this, we will have earned the right to expand additional offerings to small businesses. As someone with deep experience scaling products and services for the small business segment, we have the right to play and win in a number of meaningful and durable businesses that will solve core customer problems and delight our users.

    為了向小型企業提供一流的產品,我們必須讓 PayPal Complete Payments 能夠在全球擴展。這是我要求我們的產品和上市團隊支援的第二個核心優先事項。您將看到我們在接下來的幾個季度中共同努力,顯著改善端到端 PayPal Complete Payments 產品的推出和採用。一旦我們完成了這一點,我們將獲得向小型企業提供更多服務的權利。作為在小型企業領域擴展產品和服務方面擁有豐富經驗的人,我們有權參與並贏得許多有意義且持久的業務,這些業務將解決核心客戶問題並取悅我們的用戶。

  • Lastly, for our enterprise customers. We have proven that we can win in the market and take share with Braintree, serving the largest enterprises such as Adobe, Booking.com, DoorDash, Ticketmaster and Uber. In the last 12 months, we processed over $450 billion in volume out of an estimated $4 trillion to $5 trillion of global large enterprise e-commerce. That's approximately 10% flowing through us. We now have a beachhead to build upon. We will address additional customer needs such as payouts, fraud management, chargeback automation and FX. These value-added services not only address specific customer pain points but also help PayPal drive additional margin.

    最後,對於我們的企業客戶。我們已經證明,我們能夠贏得市場並與 Braintree 分享份額,為 Adob​​e、Booking.com、DoorDash、Ticketmaster 和 Uber 等最大的企業提供服務。在過去 12 個月中,我們處理了超過 4,500 億美元的交易量,而全球大型企業電子商務的交易額預計為 4 兆至 5 兆美元。這大約有 10% 流經我們。我們現在有了一個可以繼續發展的灘頭陣地。我們將滿足其他客戶需求,例如付款、詐欺管理、退款自動化和外匯。這些加值服務不僅可以解決特定的客戶痛點,還可以幫助 PayPal 獲得額外的利潤。

  • To be clear, our focus here will be continuing to improve performance, provide additional services and expand margin. And lastly, on our company as a whole, let me touch briefly on our evolution to operating as a platform company. Our ability to seamlessly delight customers end to end is a function of the quality of our technology and data platforms, which are very strong. But we have a significant and important opportunity to further become a platform company that builds company-wide capabilities, accelerates at scale and drives efficiencies across the organization. Fully unlocking this will accelerate innovation, velocity in the market and value.

    需要明確的是,我們的重點將是繼續提高績效、提供額外服務並擴大利潤。最後,關於我們公司的整體情況,讓我簡單談談我們向平台公司營運的演變。我們端到端無縫地取悅客戶的能力取決於我們非常強大的技術和數據平台的品質。但我們有一個重大且重要的機會,可以進一步成為一家平台公司,建立全公司範圍的能力,大規模加速並提高整個組織的效率。充分釋放這一點將加速創新、市場速度和價值。

  • Further, our data and scale are key strengths. Our machine learning capabilities combine hundreds of risk and fraud models with dozens of real-time analytics engines and petabytes of payments data to generate insights by learning users' behaviors, relationships, interests and spending habits. This scale gives us a very unique advantage in the market. Our ability to create meaningful profiles with the help of AI is exceptionally promising. You will see us using our data and the advances in generative AI in responsible ways to further connect our merchants and consumers together in a tight flywheel.

    此外,我們的數據和規模是關鍵優勢。我們的機器學習功能將數百個風險和詐欺模型與數十個即時分析引擎和 PB 級支付數據相結合,透過學習用戶的行為、關係、興趣和消費習慣來產生見解。這種規模使我們在市場上有非常獨特的優勢。我們在人工智慧的幫助下創建有意義的個人資料的能力非常有前途。您將看到我們以負責任的方式使用我們的數據和生成人工智慧的進步,以緊密的飛輪進一步將我們的商家和消費者聯繫在一起。

  • This is essential. We must build products and customer experiences that are strengthened by our unique 2-sided network. Harnessing an end-to-end data platform will help us drive network effects throughout our business. In order to maximize this opportunity, it will require technology consolidation and automation across the company. Simply put, our cost base remains too high and it's actually slowing us down. As such, I am in the process of evaluating our most profitable growth priorities and aligning our resources to those priorities. We will become leaner, more efficient and more effective, driving greater velocity, innovation and impact for customers.

    這是至關重要的。我們必須打造透過我們獨特的雙邊網路加強的產品和客戶體驗。利用端到端資料平台將幫助我們在整個業務中推動網路效應。為了最大限度地利用這一機會,需要整個公司的技術整合和自動化。簡而言之,我們的成本基礎仍然太高,這實際上拖慢了我們的速度。因此,我正在評估我們最有利可圖的成長優先事項,並根據這些優先事項調整我們的資源。我們將變得更加精簡、更有效率、更有效,為客戶帶來更快的速度、創新和影響力。

  • To recap my observations and focus areas, our assets and breadth are unrivaled. Our innovation is accelerating and will drive impact, but we must focus and execute. The weight of the organization will be squarely behind: one, reinventing our consumer experience to drive a clear and durable value proposition with checkout at the center; two, improving and scaling PayPal Complete Payments for small businesses globally; and three, driving margin expansion in Braintree and other products for large enterprises. Additionally, we will invest in our company-wide platform, driving efficiency and acceleration of innovation while rightsizing our expenses.

    回顧我的觀察和重點領域,我們的資產和廣度是無與倫比的。我們的創新正在加速,並將產生影響,但我們必須集中精力並執行。組織的重要性將直接落在後面:第一,重塑我們的消費者體驗,以推動以結帳為中心的清晰且持久的價值主張;第二,為全球小型企業改進並擴展 PayPal Complete Payments;第三,推動 Braintree 和其他大型企業產品的利潤率擴張。此外,我們將投資於全公司範圍的平台,提高效率並加速創新,同時合理調整開支。

  • Now I'd like to share what you can expect from me in terms of how we will communicate to all of you and the principles to which we will adhere. You'll see this starting with our next earnings call in terms of how we report our numbers and what we view as important metrics to our shareholders. I believe, in the last several years, it has been difficult to model our company consistently because the company itself hasn't provided consistent metrics to allow you to do so. That is going to change.

    現在我想分享你們對我的期望,即我們將如何與你們所有人溝通以及我們將遵守的原則。從我們的下一次財報電話會議開始,您就會看到這一點,包括我們如何報告我們的數據以及我們認為對股東重要的指標。我相信,在過去的幾年裡,很難對我們的公司進行一致的建模,因為公司本身沒有提供一致的指標來允許您這樣做。這種情況將會改變。

  • For our next earnings call, we will unpack for you the following: first, we will be clear what our operating principles are and how these principles drive the growth opportunities we pursue and, in turn, drive capital allocation, technology allocation and talent allocation decisions across our business. Second, we will be clear about what metrics matter the most to us and how we are managing the business. I can tell you right now, what I care about most is high-quality customer growth and profitable revenue growth. Going forward, PayPal will be focused on generating real profit for the company. I can't emphasize that last statement enough. It is key to how I believe this company should be run, and it is how you should expect us to measure our performance. Unprofitable growth is counterproductive to the long-term prospects of this or any other growth-oriented company.

    在我們的下一次財報電話會議中,我們將為您闡述以下內容:首先,我們將明確我們的營運原則是什麼,以及這些原則如何推動我們追求的成長機會,進而推動資本配置、技術配置和人才配置決策貫穿我們的業務。其次,我們將清楚哪些指標對我們最重要以及我們如何管理業務。我現在可以告訴你,我最關心的是高品質的客戶成長和獲利的收入成長。展望未來,PayPal 將專注於為公司創造實際利潤。我怎麼強調都不為過。這是我認為公司應該如何運作的關鍵,也是您應該期望我們衡量我們績效的方式。無利可圖的成長會對該公司或任何其他以成長為導向的公司的長期前景產生反作用。

  • Third, as a management team, we will be guided by margin-accretive revenue growth. Over time, I believe we have a tremendous opportunity to grow revenue outside of purely transaction-related volume as we continue to serve our customers' core needs. We are taking a closer look at how best to report our financial performance and which KPIs we will be focused on going forward. Once we complete this review, we will consistently use the same metrics, and it will be easy for you to model the business, judge our performance and hold us accountable.

    第三,作為管理團隊,我們將以利潤成長的收入成長為指導。隨著時間的推移,我相信,隨著我們繼續滿足客戶的核心需求,我們將有巨大的機會在純粹與交易相關的數量之外增加收入。我們正在仔細研究如何最好地報告我們的財務表現以及我們未來將重點關注哪些關鍵績效指標。一旦我們完成這次審查,我們將始終使用相同的指標,您將可以輕鬆地對業務進行建模、判斷我們的績效並追究我們的責任。

  • Next, I want all stakeholders to be able to understand in a simple way how we do what we do and how we make money doing it. This includes our customers as they are the lifeblood of our existence. Lastly, I am laser-focused on operating leverage and making sure we manage our cost base with relentless attention and commitment. As I said before, I believe our cost base and complex structure is slowing us down. We have opportunities to accelerate our revenue growth while reducing our expenses, helping further drive operating leverage.

    接下來,我希望所有利害關係人能夠以簡單的方式了解我們如何做我們所做的事情以及我們如何透過這些事情賺錢。這包括我們的客戶,因為他們是我們存在的命脈。最後,我高度關注營運槓桿,並確保我們以不懈的關注和承諾來管理我們的成本基礎。正如我之前所說,我相信我們的成本基礎和複雜的結構正在減慢我們的速度。我們有機會加速收入成長,同時減少開支,幫助進一步提高營運槓桿。

  • In terms of the time line from here, I can tell you that we are already hard at work determining a comprehensive plan for 2024 and ensuring we are prepared to deliver it. There are teams stacked against the focus areas I mentioned earlier and they are deep in execution mode. Our core execution and fast-twitch operating muscles are building by the day. In parallel, the leadership team and I are refreshing our strategic priorities and focus areas for 2024, and we'll be sharing them with you in our next earnings call in February. I will unpack for you then the clarity of our strategic focus, our focused growth priorities and how we will achieve durable profitable growth, adjustments we will make to drive efficiencies across the organization and guide what you can expect us to deliver in 2024.

    就目前的時間表而言,我可以告訴您,我們已經在努力確定 2024 年的全面計劃,並確保我們做好交付的準備。有些團隊專注於我之前提到的重點領域,並且他們處於深度執行模式。我們的核心執行力和快速收縮的操作肌肉正在日益增強。同時,我和領導團隊正在更新我們 2024 年的策略重點和重點領域,我們將在 2 月的下一次財報電話會議上與您分享。然後,我將為您詳細介紹我們的策略重點、我們重點發展的優先事項,以及我們將如何實現持久的盈利增長、我們將為提高整個組織的效率而進行的調整,並指導您期望我們在2024年實現什麼目標。

  • It is clear to me that the things we need to do better aren't all going to be achieved overnight. And of course, business, like life, is not a straight line. However, I can tell you one thing for sure. We are going to move at lightning speed to get there as quickly as possible. With that, I'd like to hand the call over to Gabrielle to take you through the Q3 results, and then we'd be happy to take some questions.

    我很清楚,我們需要做得更好的事不可能一蹴可幾。當然,商業就像生活一樣,不是一條直線。不過,我可以肯定地告訴你一件事。我們將以閃電般的速度盡快到達那裡。說到這裡,我想將電話轉交給加布里埃爾,帶您了解第三季度的結果,然後我們很樂意回答一些問題。

  • Gabrielle Rabinovitch - Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP of IR & Treasurer and Acting CFO

    Gabrielle Rabinovitch - Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP of IR & Treasurer and Acting CFO

  • Thanks, Alex. It's great to have you on board. The past few weeks have been incredibly inspiring and invigorating. There's renewed energy and excitement at PayPal with you leading us forward. I look forward to welcoming Jamie and working with you as we enter this new chapter of growth for PayPal.

    謝謝,亞歷克斯。很高興您加入。過去的幾週令人難以置信地鼓舞人心和充滿活力。在您的帶領下,PayPal 煥發出新的活力和熱情。我期待歡迎 Jamie 並與您合作,讓我們進入 PayPal 發展的新篇章。

  • I share Alex's enthusiasm for our increased pace of innovation and the outstanding opportunities we have, given the power and scale of our global franchise. And I agree that with increased focus and improved prioritization, accelerating our growth and delivering operating leverage are mutually reinforcing.

    鑑於我們全球特許經營的實力和規模,我和亞歷克斯一樣對我們加快創新步伐和我們擁有的絕佳機會充滿熱情。我同意,隨著重點的增加和優先順序的改善,加速我們的成長和提供營運槓桿是相輔相成的。

  • Importantly, we're committed to increase transparency and improve consistency in how we discuss our business and the ongoing enhancement of our disclosures. I would also like to thank the entire PayPal team for their steadfast focus on delivering for our customers and executing our priorities.

    重要的是,我們致力於提高討論業務的透明度和一致性,並不斷加強我們的揭露。我還要感謝整個 PayPal 團隊堅定不移地致力於為我們的客戶提供服務並執行我們的優先事項。

  • First, several highlights from the quarter. We're reporting 9% revenue growth on a currency-neutral basis and 20% growth in non-GAAP earnings per share, both of which are ahead of our guidance. In the third quarter, we again demonstrated strong expense discipline and our ability to operate our business with improved efficiencies. In addition, we continue to make progress in the quarter across our long-term strategic initiatives, which are focused on driving more profitable growth.

    首先,本季的幾個亮點。我們報告,在貨幣中性的基礎上,收入增長了 9%,非 GAAP 每股收益增長了 20%,這兩項都超出了我們的指導。第三季度,我們再次展現了嚴格的費用紀律以及提高效率運作業務的能力。此外,本季我們的長期策略計畫持續取得進展,這些計畫的重點是推動利潤成長。

  • Moving to our customers. We're encouraged by new cohorts coming in. Retention and active use based on product innovations are starting to pay off. That said, during the quarter, active accounts declined by 2.8 million as we continue to flush out low-quality customers predominantly in Latin America and Southeast Asia. As a reminder, we said this would be a year where we churn off lower-quality actives and in which total accounts would decline. Year-to-date, churn has been lower than our expectations. Customer growth is a vital pillar of our growth agenda. We're an organization focused on serving our customers and improving our value proposition, and we're positioning ourselves for a return to growth in our customer base.

    轉向我們的客戶。我們對新群體的加入感到鼓舞。基於產品創新的保留和積極使用正在開始獲得回報。儘管如此,本季活躍帳戶數量減少了 280 萬,因為我們繼續淘汰主要位於拉丁美洲和東南亞的低品質客戶。提醒一下,我們說今年我們會大量減少低品質的活動,總帳戶數也會下降。今年迄今為止,客戶流失率低於我們的預期。客戶成長是我們成長議程的重要支柱。我們是一家專注於服務客戶和提高價值主張的組織,我們正在為客戶群的恢復成長做好定位。

  • Turning to volume growth. We're reporting total payment volume of $387.7 billion, representing 15% growth at spot and 13% growth on a currency-neutral basis, with that growth primarily driven by Braintree. U.S. TPV grew 10%. International TPV grew 19% currency-neutral, accelerating 5 points sequentially, primarily driven by strength in Europe as well as improvements in Asia.

    轉向銷量成長。我們報告的總支付額為 3,877 億美元,即期增長 15%,不考慮貨幣因素則增長 13%,這一增長主要由 Braintree 推動。美國TPV增長10%。國際 TPV 成長 19%(不考慮貨幣因素),比上一季成長 5 個百分點,這主要是由於歐洲的強勁以及亞洲的改善所推動的。

  • I would now like to comment on our branded checkout performance. PayPal's global branded checkout volumes grew approximately 6% in the quarter on a currency-neutral basis relative to 7.5% growth in Q3 last year. Growth accelerated in July to 8% but moderated as we moved through the quarter. To date in Q4, branded trends have stabilized and are tracking in line with the first half of the year. As I mentioned, revenue increased 9% on a currency-neutral basis and 8% at spot to $7.4 billion. Transaction revenue grew 7% to $6.7 billion, driven by Braintree and PayPal-branded checkout. Hedge gains for the quarter were $7 million, $149 million lower than Q3 last year.

    我現在想評論一下我們的品牌結帳表現。在不計貨幣因素的基礎上,PayPal 的全球品牌結帳量本季成長約 6%,而去年第三季成長了 7.5%。 7 月份成長率加速至 8%,但隨著本季的推進,成長率有所放緩。迄今為止,第四季度,品牌趨勢已經穩定,並與上半年保持一致。正如我所提到的,在不考慮貨幣因素的情況下,營收成長了 9%,即期收入成長了 8%,達到 74 億美元。在 Braintree 和 PayPal 品牌結帳的推動下,交易收入成長了 7%,達到 67 億美元。該季度的對沖收益為 700 萬美元,比去年第三季減少 1.49 億美元。

  • In Q3 of last year, we also benefited from approximately $75 million in contractual compensation from merchants, which did not contribute to our revenue this year. In addition, as we discussed last quarter, migrating and consolidating legacy PayPal payment services was also a drag on the growth in transaction revenue. Other value-added services revenue grew 25% to $764 million, almost entirely driven by increased interest income on customer stored balances. In the third quarter, U.S. revenue grew 7%. Interest revenue increased 10% at spot and 11% on a currency-neutral basis, accelerating sequentially and year-over-year.

    去年第三季度,我們也從商家獲得了約 7,500 萬美元的合約報酬,這並沒有對我們今年的收入做出貢獻。此外,正如我們在上季度討論的那樣,遷移和整合傳統 PayPal 支付服務也拖累了交易收入的成長。其他增值服務收入成長了 25%,達到 7.64 億美元,幾乎完全是由客戶儲存餘額利息收入的增加所推動的。第三季度,美國營收成長7%。即期利息收入成長 10%,以貨幣中性計算成長 11%,季減與年比加速成長。

  • As with TPV, we saw strengthening performance across Europe, which was most pronounced in the early to mid-summer. And in China, our seller business improved as well. Transaction take rate declined 13 basis points to 1.72%. Similar to our Q2 results, approximately 70% of this decline was driven by 3 factors: lower gains from foreign currency hedges, which are recorded as international transaction revenue; a decline in foreign exchange fees, in part driven by lower currency volatility; and the headwind from lapping elevated contractual compensation from merchants last year. In addition, the mix of volumes from large merchants continue to pressure our branded checkout take rate. Our total take rate declined 12 basis points to 1.91% and was affected by the same factors as transaction take rate.

    與冠捷一樣,我們看到整個歐洲的表現都在增強,這在初夏至仲夏最為明顯。在中國,我們的賣家業務也有所改善。交易接受率下降 13 個基點至 1.72%。與我們第二季的結果類似,這一下降的大約 70% 是由 3 個因素驅動的:外幣對沖收益下降,記錄為國際交易收入;外匯費用下降,部分原因是貨幣波動性降低;去年商家提高合約報酬帶來的阻力。此外,來自大型商家的交易量持續對我們的品牌結帳率構成壓力。我們的總接受率下降了 12 個基點至 1.91%,受到與交易接受率相同因素的影響。

  • Transaction expense as a rate of TPV came in at 93 basis points, 4 basis points higher than Q3 last year. This increase was primarily driven by Braintree volume growth and was partially offset by the geographic mix of PayPal volumes and rate benefits in Venmo. Transaction loss as a rate of TPV was 8 basis points for the quarter, flat to last year. Credit losses were $117 million or 3 basis points as a rate of TPV. In the aggregate, volume-based expenses increased 21% in the third quarter. Consistent with our expectations going into the quarter, Q3 saw a higher level of pressure on transaction margin dollar and rate performance due to several lapping and more transitory factors that we've discussed on past earnings calls.

    交易費用佔 TPV 的比率為 93 個基點,比去年第三季高出 4 個基點。這一增長主要是由 Braintree 交易量增長推動的,但部分被 PayPal 交易量的地理組合和 Venmo 的費率優勢所抵消。本季交易損失佔 TPV 的比例為 8 個基點,與去年同期持平。信用損失為 1.17 億美元,以 TPV 比率計算為 3 個基點。總體而言,第三季基於數量的費用增加了 21%。與我們對本季的預期一致,由於我們在過去的財報電話會議上討論過的一些重疊和更多暫時性因素,第三季交易保證金美元和利率表現面臨更大的壓力。

  • Transaction margin dollars declined 3.5% to $3.4 billion, and transaction margin declined 558 basis points to 45.4%. In the third quarter, we delivered 540 basis points of operating expense leverage. Non-transaction-related operating expenses declined 12%. We've been actively managing our cost structure and, in Q3, reductions across each of our principal operating expense categories contributed significant leverage. Non-GAAP operating income grew 8% in the quarter to $1.6 billion. Our non-GAAP operating margin declined 18 basis points to 22.2%, with operating expense leverage largely offsetting transaction margin compression.

    交易保證金下降 3.5%,至 34 億美元,交易保證金下降 558 個基點,至 45.4%。第三季度,我們實現了 540 個基點的營運費用槓桿。非交易相關營運費用下降 12%。我們一直在積極管理我們的成本結構,在第三季度,我們每個主要營運費用類別的減少都貢獻了巨大的槓桿作用。本季非 GAAP 營業收入成長 8%,達到 16 億美元。我們的非 GAAP 營業利潤率下降 18 個基點至 22.2%,營業費用槓桿在很大程度上抵消了交易利潤率的壓縮。

  • For the third quarter, non-GAAP EPS increased 20% to $1.30, which exceeded the high end of our guidance range by $0.06. We ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and investments of $15 billion. We generated $1.1 billion in free cash flow, which represents a 30% decline from the third quarter last year. As a reminder, last quarter, we classified the European installment loans that we intended to sell to KKR as held-for-sale. All loans subsequently originated in this portfolio are also classified as held-for-sale and are reflected as outflows within cash flow from operations.

    第三季度,非 GAAP 每股盈餘成長 20% 至 1.30 美元,超出我們指引範圍的上限 0.06 美元。本季結束時,我們的現金、現金等價物和投資為 150 億美元。我們產生了 11 億美元的自由現金流,比去年第三季下降了 30%。提醒一下,上個季度,我們將打算出售給 KKR 的歐洲分期貸款歸類為持有待售。此投資組合隨後產生的所有貸款也被歸類為持有待售,並反映為經營現金流量的流出。

  • In Q3, this dynamic reduced free cash flow by $810 million. In future periods, we will recognize the cash from proceeds of sales as an offsetting inflow to cash flow from operations. Adjusting for this temporary impact, free cash flow grew 21% to $1.9 billion. Our strong balance sheet and free cash flow generation are competitive differentiators and provide us with significant optionality for value creation. We have also made progress this year executing a disciplined approach to capital allocation and managing our balance sheet.

    第三季度,這種動態使自由現金流減少了 8.1 億美元。在未來期間,我們將確認銷售所得現金作為經營現金流量的抵銷流入。調整此暫時影響後,自由現金流成長 21%,達到 19 億美元。我們強大的資產負債表和自由現金流產生是競爭優勢,為我們創造價值提供了重要的選擇。今年,我們在執行嚴格的資本配置方法和管理資產負債表方面也取得了進展。

  • In the third quarter, we completed an additional $1.4 billion in share repurchases. Through September 30, we've now returned $4.4 billion to shareholders. For the full year, we continue to expect to allocate approximately $5 billion to our share repurchase program. Given our conviction in our business relative to its valuation today, we've taken a more aggressive approach to our capital return program and have reduced our weighted average shares outstanding by 7% over the last 8 quarters. We believe that share repurchase remains an optimal use of capital, allowing us to retain the flexibility to continue investing opportunistically in our business.

    第三季度,我們額外完成了 14 億美元的股票回購。截至 9 月 30 日,我們已向股東返還 44 億美元。全年,我們繼續預計將分配約 50 億美元用於我們的股票回購計畫。鑑於我們對業務相對於當前估值的信心,我們對資本回報計劃採取了更積極的方法,並在過去 8 個季度中將加權平均流通股減少了 7%。我們相信,股票回購仍然是資本的最佳利用方式,使我們能夠保持靈活性,繼續投機投資我們的業務。

  • In addition, as a result of our decision to sell our European Pay Later receivables to KKR, we ended Q3 with $5 billion in net credit receivables, a 16% decline year-over-year and a 9% decline sequentially. Two weeks ago, we closed on the first step of this commitment, receiving approximately $1.4 billion in proceeds. Later this month, we will close on the next tranche of our back book sale of credit receivables. We are also maintaining a tightened origination strategy for the PayPal business loans portfolio.

    此外,由於我們決定將歐洲 Pay Later 應收帳款出售給 KKR,第三季結束時,我們的應收帳款淨額為 50 億美元,年減 16%,季減 9%。兩週前,我們完成了這項承諾的第一步,收到了約 14 億美元的收益。本月晚些時候,我們將完成下一批應收帳款回售。我們也對 PayPal 商業貸款組合維持嚴格的發起策略。

  • Principal and interest receivables declined nearly 30% in the quarter, and this portfolio now represents approximately 12% of our overall credit receivables portfolio versus 21% 12 months ago. As you heard from Alex, we're evaluating our growth priorities and aligning our resources to accelerate our velocity. With greater focus, we can be more effective. Consistent with this approach, we're divesting Happy Returns. In September, we entered into an agreement to sell Happy Returns to UPS for $465 million in cash, meaningfully higher than our acquisition price. We're thrilled that following a rigorous process over many months, our team was able to find Happy Returns the right long-term home with UPS. This sale, which is expected to close in the current quarter, will enable us to put even more focus on our core business and priorities.

    本季應收帳款本金和利息下降了近 30%,該投資組合目前約占我們整體信用應收帳款投資組合的 12%,而 12 個月前為 21%。正如您從亞歷克斯那裡聽到的,我們正在評估我們的成長優先事項並調整我們的資源以加快我們的速度。更專注,我們就能更有效率。與這種方法一致,我們正在剝離快樂回報。 9 月份,我們簽訂了一項協議,以 4.65 億美元的現金價格將 Happy Returns 出售給 UPS,這明顯高於我們的收購價格。我們很高興經過數月的嚴格流程,我們的團隊能夠透過 UPS 為 Happy Returns 找到合適的長期住所。此次出售預計將在本季度完成,這將使我們能夠更加專注於我們的核心業務和優先事項。

  • I would now like to discuss our outlook for the remainder of the year. Relative to the plan laid out on our earnings call 3 months ago, branded checkout growth has been lower than expected. As I mentioned earlier, after an acceleration in the summer, we've seen a return to growth that is more in line with trends throughout the first half of 2023. We now expect fourth quarter revenue to grow between 7% and 8% on a currency-neutral basis or approximately 6% to 7% at spot. In addition, we expect non-GAAP EPS in Q4 to be approximately $1.36, representing 10% growth relative to 2022.

    我現在想討論一下我們對今年剩餘時間的展望。相對於三個月前我們在財報電話會議上製定的計劃,品牌結帳成長低於預期。正如我之前提到的,經過夏季的加速之後,我們看到了成長的恢復,這更符合 2023 年上半年的趨勢。我們現在預計第四季營收將成長 7% 至 8%,貨幣中性基礎上或即期匯率約為6% 至7%。此外,我們預計第四季非 GAAP 每股盈餘約為 1.36 美元,較 2022 年成長 10%。

  • Our guidance contemplates a sequential improvement in transaction margin dollar performance. That said, on a year-over-year basis, we now expect transaction margin dollars to decline. In addition, we expect our non-GAAP operating margin to contract from the fourth quarter last year. For 2023, we now expect revenue to grow approximately 8.5% on a currency-neutral basis and approximately 7.5% at spot. The ongoing strength of Braintree volumes, in conjunction with lower-than-expected branded checkout trends, are resulting in incremental pressure on our non-GAAP operating margin.

    我們的指引考慮了交易保證金美元表現的連續改善。也就是說,與去年同期相比,我們現在預計交易保證金將下降。此外,我們預計我們的非公認會計準則營業利潤率將比去年第四季縮減。對於 2023 年,我們目前預計在貨幣中性的基礎上營收將成長約 8.5%,即期營收將成長約 7.5%。 Braintree 交易量的持續強勁,加上低於預期的品牌結帳趨勢,為我們的非公認會計準則營運利潤帶來了越來越大的壓力。

  • Relative to the 100 basis points of expansion previously expected, we now expect approximately 75 basis points of margin expansion. We're slightly increasing our expectations for full year 2023 non-GAAP EPS, which we now expect to be approximately $4.98, representing 21% growth from last year. This increase reflects the benefit of Q3 outperformance and changes to our tax rate assumption. In addition, we now expect free cash flow for 2023 to be at least $4.6 billion.

    相對於先前預期的 100 個基點的擴張,我們現在預計利潤率將擴張約 75 個基點。我們略微提高了對 2023 年全年非 GAAP 每股收益的預期,目前預計約為 4.98 美元,較去年增長 21%。這一增長反映了第三季表現優異以及我們稅率假設變化的好處。此外,我們現在預計 2023 年的自由現金流至少為 46 億美元。

  • In closing, we believe that we're well positioned to navigate the road ahead. As Alex noted in his comments, we're working on our plans to accelerate profitable growth, and we'll share our progress with you along the way with consistency and transparency. We're committed to building PayPal for the future and guided by our relentless focus on creating the best possible experiences for our customers. Backdrop continues to be complex, we're taking an appropriately prudent approach to managing our business. And with that, Alex and I are happy to take your questions.

    最後,我們相信我們已做好準備,能夠在未來的道路上前進。正如亞歷克斯在評論中指出的那樣,我們正在製定加速獲利成長的計劃,我們將始終如一、透明地與您分享我們的進展。我們致力於為未來打造 PayPal,並堅持不懈地致力於為客戶創造最佳體驗。背景仍然很複雜,我們正在採取適當的審慎方法來管理我們的業務。至此,亞歷克斯和我很高興回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang from JPMorgan.

    (操作員指示) 您的第一個問題來自摩根大通黃天欽的電話。

  • Tien-Tsin Huang - Senior Analyst

    Tien-Tsin Huang - Senior Analyst

  • Alex, appreciate your observations and priorities here. Can you maybe share a little bit more on your early impressions of the assets and the portfolio products at PayPal? I just love to hear what surprised to the upside and maybe what assets could require more work to turn around than what you thought. And if, for example, Happy Returns being sold, as you called out last week, we see more sales, divestitures, replatforming, that kind of thing.

    亞歷克斯,感謝您的觀察和優先事項。能否分享一下您對 PayPal 資產和投資組合產品的早期印象?我只是喜歡聽聽什麼是令人驚訝的上行,也許哪些資產可能需要比你想像的更多的工作才能扭轉局面。例如,如果快樂回報被出售,正如您上週所說,我們會看到更多的銷售、資產剝離、平台重組等事情。

  • James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

    James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thank you, Tien-Tsin, and good to hear from you. It's been exciting to come in. I would be remiss if I didn't say it wasn't a surprise but it's delighted me from an asset perspective. The first I'd highlight is our employee base. This is a tremendous team that is energized, has welcomed me to the team and is fired up to go tackle all the opportunities ahead of us.

    是的。謝謝你,天進,很高興收到你的來信。進來真是令人興奮。如果我不說這並不令人驚訝,那就是我的失職,但從資產的角度來看,這讓我很高興。我首先要強調的是我們的員工基礎。這是一支充滿活力的偉大團隊,歡迎我加入這個團隊,並充滿熱情地去抓住我們面前的所有機會。

  • If I then think about the different components, I've been really impressed with all the different pieces that we have to deliver for consumers. We have a ubiquitous platform that's globally recognized with PayPal. Venmo is a verb and it's something that is tremendous in the U.S. and has opportunities beyond. If I think about all the different core problems that we can solve with the assets that we have for customers, Rewards, Buy Now Pay Later, Cashback cards, all of those are tremendous and within our grasp.

    如果我再考慮不同的組件,我們必須為消費者提供的所有不同的組件給我留下了深刻的印象。我們擁有全球認可的無所不在的 PayPal 平台。 Venmo 是一個動詞,它在美國影響巨大,在其他國家也有機會。如果我考慮我們可以用我們為客戶提供的資產解決的所有不同的核心問題,獎勵、先買後付、現金回饋卡,所有這些都是巨大的,並且在我們的掌握範圍內。

  • We just, as I mentioned earlier, just have to put them together into a core value proposition, and that's what the team is working towards right now. On the merchant side, again, we have tremendous penetration into small businesses and enterprises. We have a beachhead now with Braintree, which I'm really excited about. And I think we've earned the right now to expand margin and make sure that we're really pricing to value and ensuring that we're delivering what we need to across the board.

    正如我之前提到的,我們只需將它們整合到一個核心價值主張中,這就是團隊現在正在努力的方向。在商業方面,我們再次對小型企業和企業進行了巨大的滲透。我們現在在布倫特里佔據了灘頭陣地,對此我感到非常興奮。我認為我們現在已經贏得了擴大利潤率的權利,並確保我們真正按照價值定價,並確保我們全面提供我們需要的東西。

  • And then if I really think about the biggest surprise that I didn't realize before coming in is probably around the data. When we look at the data that we have across this 2-sided network, it allows us to do things that I think others just can't. And when I think about how we can personalize branded checkout, how we can recognize people that checkout with our data and create an experience that is frictionless, that is personalized, that drives conversion for our merchants, I think we're just scratching the surface of the opportunity there. And so that is a big opportunity that gets me very excited.

    如果我真的考慮一下,我在進來之前沒有意識到的最大驚喜可能是數據。當我們查看這個雙向網路上的數據時,它使我們能夠做到我認為其他人無法做到的事情。當我思考如何個性化品牌結帳,如何識別使用我們的數據結帳的人,並創造一種無摩擦、個性化、推動商家轉換的體驗時,我認為我們只是觸及了表面。那裡的機會。這是一個讓我非常興奮的巨大機會。

  • In terms of opportunities, where we have more work, I think you saw it with the Happy Returns divestiture. And what I would say overall is we have lots of opportunities but we're doing too many things. We're spread too thin. And we have an opportunity to focus the organization on what matters the most, on the most impactful opportunities to customers and to growing the business, and we'll be looking at that over time.

    就機會而言,我們有更多的工作,我想你在快樂回報的剝離中看到了這一點。總的來說,我想說的是,我們有很多機會,但我們做了太多事情。我們的分佈太分散了。我們有機會讓組織專注於最重要的事情,專注於對客戶和發展業務最具影響力的機會,我們將隨著時間的推移關注這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Ramsey El-Assal from Barclays.

    您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的拉姆齊·阿薩爾 (Ramsey El-Assal)。

  • Ramsey Clark El-Assal - Research Analyst

    Ramsey Clark El-Assal - Research Analyst

  • I appreciate all the clarity you guys provided on your priorities. You gave us some great detail also on your approach to the SMB side of the business, such as some commentary on PPCP. I guess the question is, given your prior experience with SMBs, do you see SMB becoming a more important part of PayPal's strategy relative to the past? And I guess which areas of the product or innovation road map get you most charged up at this point?

    我感謝你們對優先事項的明確說明。您還向我們提供了一些關於您對 SMB 業務的方法的詳細信息,例如對 PPCP 的一些評論。我想問題是,考慮到您之前與中小企業打交道的經驗,您認為中小企業是否會成為 PayPal 策略中相對於過去更重要的一部分?我猜產品或創新路線圖的哪些領域此時最能讓您感到興奮?

  • James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

    James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thank you, Ramsey. Small businesses are a passion of mine. It has been for the last 19 years and it's very personal. I used to run a small business, and so it's in my DNA and something that not only is important to PayPal and has been in the past, it's really been the lifeblood of the organization. But it absolutely will be a priority going forward.

    是的。謝謝你,拉姆齊。小型企業是我的熱情所在。它已經過去 19 年了,而且非常個人化。我曾經經營過一家小型企業,所以它已經融入了我的 DNA,不僅對 PayPal 很重要,而且在過去也一直如此,它確實是該組織的命脈。但這絕對將是未來的優先事項。

  • When I think about small businesses in general, there's 2 really core customer challenges that the small businesses have. The first is getting customers and growing their business, and the second is managing cash flow. On the getting customer side, we have a tremendous opportunity with PPCP to help them convert customers, to find customers, to drive new customer acquisition and really help them over time. This is a data play. It's a ubiquity play. And with our 2-sided network, it's where we're focused right now.

    當我考慮一般的小型企業時,小型企業面臨兩個真正的核心客戶挑戰。第一個是吸引客戶並發展業務,第二個是管理現金流。在獲取客戶方面,我們透過 PPCP 獲得了巨大的機會來幫助他們轉換客戶、尋找客戶、推動新客戶獲取並隨著時間的推移真正為他們提供幫助。這是一個數據遊戲。這是一個無所不在的遊戲。借助我們的雙向網絡,這就是我們現在關注的重點。

  • Once we do that, I think we earn the right to expand into their second challenge of cash flow. Cash flow was all about money in, money out and access to capital. We play in all 3 of those areas. We just have to put together the assets that we have to be able to help small businesses, again, manage their cash flow in a way that helps them grow their business and get past any ups and downs in the market. So very excited about small businesses going forward.

    一旦我們做到了這一點,我認為我們就獲得了擴展到他們的第二個現金流挑戰的權利。現金流就是資金流入、資金流出和資本取得。我們在這三個領域都進行比賽。我們只需整合我們必須能夠幫助小型企業的資產,再次管理他們的現金流,以幫助他們發展業務並度過市場的任何起伏。對小企業的未來感到非常興奮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Darrin Peller from Wolfe Research.

    您的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的達林佩勒 (Darrin Peller)。

  • Darrin David Peller - MD & Senior Analyst

    Darrin David Peller - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Alex, congrats again on the new role, and Gabrielle, thanks for everything. Obviously, we know you'll be missed by your investors. Guys, I know you lowered your outlook a bit for revenue in the fourth quarter, and I think you said you continue to see a decrease in gross profit for fourth quarter. Can you just give us a bit more color on what you're seeing in the environment on e-com, both U.S. and perhaps globally? And just if anything you're seeing in trends is what led to a more cautious outlook either on the holidays or anything more broadly?

    亞歷克斯,再次祝賀新角色,加布里埃爾,感謝你所做的一切。顯然,我們知道您的投資者會想念您。夥計們,我知道你們稍微下調了第四季度的收入預期,而且我想你們說過第四季度的毛利繼續下降。您能否向我們介紹一下您在美國乃至全球的電子商務環境中所看到的情況?如果您在趨勢中看到的任何東西導致了對假期或更廣泛的情況更加謹慎的展望?

  • Gabrielle Rabinovitch - Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP of IR & Treasurer and Acting CFO

    Gabrielle Rabinovitch - Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP of IR & Treasurer and Acting CFO

  • Yes, Darrin, you bet. Thanks for the question. Overall, I'd say we're seeing very healthy trends in our checkout business. We're heading into the heart of Q4, and we really see no meaningful shifts in our performance or our demand environment. We have taken an appropriately prudent approach to planning for Q4, and obviously, we've contemplated a range of outcomes. As you know, headed into Q3, we had expected to see branded checkout accelerate through the back half. Branded did bump up in July. And as I discussed a few minutes earlier, it moderated through Q3.

    是的,達林,你敢打賭。謝謝你的提問。總的來說,我想說我們的結帳業務呈現出非常健康的趨勢。我們正進入第四季度的核心,我們確實沒有看到我們的業績或需求環境發生任何有意義的變化。我們採取了適當謹慎的方法來規劃第四季度,顯然,我們已經考慮了一系列結果。如您所知,進入第三季度,我們預計品牌結帳將在下半年加速。 Branded 在 7 月確實有所成長。正如我幾分鐘前討論的那樣,它在第三季度得到了緩和。

  • Overall, we've seen very solid performance in branded so when we think about the sort of what we're seeing in the back half relative to the first half, very consistent performance in global branded checkout. But it's just not as elevated as we planned and that's really what's informing the outlook.

    整體而言,我們在品牌方面看到了非常穩健的表現,因此當我們考慮下半年相對於上半年所看到的情況時,全球品牌結帳的表現非常一致。但它只是沒有我們計畫的那麼高,這才是真正影響前景的因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Mike Ng from Goldman Sachs.

    您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Mike Ng。

  • Michael Ng - Research Analyst

    Michael Ng - Research Analyst

  • First, Alex, congratulations on the new role, and Gabrielle, thanks for everything. I appreciate your comments around managing the cost base and it being too high. Could you just talk a little bit about how you think about balancing the need for investment versus efficiency? The company previously talked about the opportunity for OpEx to keep declining in the years ahead. Is that how we should think -- still think about the future?

    首先,亞歷克斯,祝賀你擔任新角色,加布里埃爾,感謝你所做的一切。我很感謝您對管理成本基礎的評論,因為它太高了。能否簡單談談您如何看待平衡投資需求和效率?該公司先前曾談到未來幾年營運支出持續下降的機會。我們該這樣思考嗎──仍然思考未來嗎?

  • James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

    James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Mike. First, let me say, as I mentioned earlier, this is a growth company, and we are going to assess the focused priorities, where we will invest in growth and we will make sure those are funded for success. And so I think about that separately then also being able to manage OpEx. On the expense side, we have an opportunity to continue to manage OpEx efficiently.

    是的。謝謝,麥克。首先,正如我之前提到的,這是一家成長型公司,我們將評估重點優先事項,我們將投資於成長,並確保為這些公司的成功提供資金。因此,我會分別考慮這一點,然後才能管理營運支出。在費用方面,我們有機會繼續有效地管理營運支出。

  • We have a lot of acquisitions that we've done over the past few years. We have a lot of duplication and a lot of manual work that we have an opportunity to invest in automation. We have an opportunity to invest in a platform that allows us to build services that can be reused and leveraged across the organization, which will, again, as I mentioned earlier, actually accelerate us and speed the company up.

    過去幾年我們進行了很多收購。我們有大量的重複工作和大量的手工工作,我們有機會投資自動化。我們有機會投資一個平台,讓我們能夠建立可以在整個組織中重複使用和利用的服務,正如我之前提到的,這將再次真正加速我們和公司的發展。

  • So I think about them differently, we will absolutely invest in growth and make sure that the levers that we have to continue to delight customers and grow the business are funded for success. And then we will work on building a platform that drives automation and continues to drive down our cost base.

    因此,我對它們的看法有所不同,我們絕對會投資於成長,並確保我們繼續取悅客戶和發展業務的槓桿能夠獲得成功所需的資金。然後我們將致力於建立一個推動自動化並繼續降低我們的成本基礎的平台。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Jason Kupferberg from Bank of America.

    您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Jason Kupferberg。

  • Jason Alan Kupferberg - MD in US Equity Research & Senior Analyst

    Jason Alan Kupferberg - MD in US Equity Research & Senior Analyst

  • Alex, welcome. Gabrielle, best of luck. And I wanted to actually ask about the transaction profit dollar growth. In Q4, will that year-over-year decline be more or less than it was in Q3? And then how should we think about the potential for this metric to see improved growth into 2024? Maybe you can comment on which of the initiatives that are in place offer more potential than others to move the needle on transaction profit dollar growth next year.

    亞歷克斯,歡迎。加布里埃爾,祝你好運。我實際上想問一下交易利潤的成長情況。第四季的年減幅度會比第三季多還是少?那麼我們該如何看待該指標在 2024 年實現成長的潛力?也許您可以評論哪些已實施的舉措比其他舉措更有潛力推動明年交易利潤的成長。

  • Gabrielle Rabinovitch - Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP of IR & Treasurer and Acting CFO

    Gabrielle Rabinovitch - Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP of IR & Treasurer and Acting CFO

  • Yes, you bet, Jason. Maybe I'll start. Well, as you heard Alex discuss and I commented on it as well, our focus really is on driving profitable growth. And we're putting the weight of the organization against initiatives consistent with that objective. That said, we did see a decline in our Q3 transaction margin dollars. We do expect them to decline again in Q4 but to a lesser extent. So I really view Q3 as the low point and we'd expect to see an improvement in the profile in Q4.

    是的,你敢打賭,傑森。也許我會開始。好吧,正如您聽到亞歷克斯討論的那樣,我也對此發表了評論,我們的重點實際上是推動利潤成長。我們將組織的權重放在與該目標一致的措施上。也就是說,我們確實看到第三季交易保證金下降。我們確實預計第四季度它們將再次下降,但幅度較小。因此,我確實認為第三季是低點,我們預計第四季的情況會有所改善。

  • In addition, obviously, we're not guiding 2024 on this call. Longer term our success will, in part, be determined by our ability to reaccelerate profitable growth in the business and we expect to be able to do that. Alex, anything else you want to add?

    此外,顯然,我們不會在這次電話會議上指導 2024 年。從長遠來看,我們的成功將部分取決於我們重新加速業務獲利成長的能力,我們希望能夠做到這一點。亞歷克斯,你還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

    James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

  • No, I just -- I want to underscore, I know I said it in the comments and I just want to underscore it again. We have every opportunity to drive profitable growth. It's just a focus that -- and a discipline that we will bring to the organization. And so it will take time. There will be a sequential performance improvement over a number of quarters. But when we make it the focus of the organization, we have enough levers at our disposal to be able to deliver on that.

    不,我只是——我想強調,我知道我在評論中說過,我只是想再次強調。我們有一切機會推動獲利成長。這只是我們將為組織帶來的一個焦點和一個紀律。所以需要時間。在幾個季度中,業績將會連續改善。但當我們將其作為組織的重點時,我們就有足夠的手段來實現這一目標。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We have time for one more question. James Faucette from Morgan Stanley.

    我們還有時間再問一個問題。摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福賽特。

  • James Eugene Faucette - MD

    James Eugene Faucette - MD

  • And I want to add my welcome to Alex and thanks to Gabrielle for all the work she's done in the CFO seat. One of the assets that you talked about within that population of the U.S. is Venmo. And I'm wondering how you're thinking about expanding its acceptance and kind of the to-dos around that. It seems like it's really important demographically. You have at least a foothold at Amazon, but expansion of acceptance elsewhere online especially has been pretty slow. So just wondering how you're thinking about that as part of the asset pool and the to-do list there.

    我想對 Alex 表示歡迎,並感謝 Gabrielle 在財務長職位上所做的所有工作。您談到的美國人口中的資產之一是 Venmo。我想知道您如何考慮擴大其接受度以及圍繞此開展的待辦事項。從人口角度來看,這似乎非常重要。你至少在亞馬遜站穩了腳跟,但其他地方的接受度擴張速度相當緩慢,尤其是在網路上。所以只是想知道您如何將其視為資產池和待辦事項清單的一部分。

  • James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

    James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thank you, James, for the question. And it is pretty rare to be able to have an asset as powerful as Venmo. When something, again, becomes a verb in language is a tremendous demographic. And you saw with our launch of Venmo Teen, we continue to expand the opportunity set there. As you mentioned, we're in early stages with Amazon. That is going well and we expect that both from a customer demand perspective as well as a merchant demand perspective, we will continue to drive acceptance ubiquity for Venmo. I think that is very important for us as well as just driving additional services that our customers are demanding for the Venmo app.

    是的。謝謝詹姆斯提出的問題。能夠擁有像 Venmo 這樣強大的資產是相當罕見的。當某物再次成為語言中的動詞時,人口數量就非常龐大。您已經看到,隨著我們推出 Venmo Teen,我們將繼續擴大在那裡的機會。正如您所提到的,我們與亞馬遜的合作正處於早期階段。一切進展順利,我們預計,無論是從客戶需求的角度還是從商家需求的角度來看,我們都將繼續推動 Venmo 的普及。我認為這對我們非常重要,並推動我們的客戶對 Venmo 應用程式所需的附加服務。

  • And so again, we think about providing different services, expanding the opportunity for our customers to be delighted and use Venmo for all aspects of their spending and managing of money. I think we're just, again, scratching the surface of what's possible with an app that is clearly loved in the market and has created viral growth. So very excited to accelerate investment there and see wherever we can take Venmo.

    因此,我們再次考慮提供不同的服務,擴大讓客戶滿意的機會,並使用 Venmo 進行支出和資金管理的各個方面。我認為我們只是再一次觸及了這款應用程式的表面,該應用程式顯然受到市場的喜愛並創造了病毒式增長。非常高興能加速在那裡的投資,看看我們能把 Venmo 帶到哪裡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • I will now turn the conference over to Alex Chriss for closing remarks.

    我現在將會議交給亞歷克斯克里斯 (Alex Chriss) 致閉幕詞。

  • James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

    James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

  • Great. Thank you, Krista. And thanks, everyone, for joining us today. Hopefully, you can see how serious we are about growing and improving PayPal across the board as quickly as possible. Before we close, I want to leave you with 3 thoughts. You've heard in my voice today about the confidence that we will make this company excel and a determination to do it as quickly and thoroughly as possible.

    偉大的。謝謝你,克里斯塔。感謝大家今天加入我們。希望您能看到我們對於盡快全面發展和改進 PayPal 的認真態度。在我們結束之前,我想留給大家三個想法。你們今天從我的聲音中聽到了我們將讓這家公司變得卓越的信心,以及盡快、徹底地做到這一點的決心。

  • We have an excellent business, but it needs to execute better and with greater clarity and focus, and it will. We will impact the go-to-market strategy and financial focus of the company in ways that are immediately impactful. It won't happen overnight but we will get PayPal to the kind of consistent growth profile we all expect.

    我們擁有出色的業務,但它需要更好地執行、更清晰和專注,而且它會做到的。我們將以立即產生影響的方式影響公司的上市策略和財務重點。這不會一蹴而就,但我們會讓 PayPal 實現我們都期望的持續成長。

  • I've said it already but it bears repeating one last time. What I care about is profitable growth. That is going to be our true north and receive our total focus. I've spent my entire career focusing on making sure we delight our customers and solve their most critical problems, but we must ensure we serve all our stakeholders.

    我已經說過了,但值得再重複一次。我關心的是獲利成長。那將是我們真正的北方,並受到我們的全部關注。我的整個職業生涯都專注於確保我們讓客戶滿意並解決他們最關鍵的問題,但我們必須確保為所有利害關係人提供服務。

  • And lastly, our employee base is fired up and motivated to win in the market. In addition, you can also expect us to add additional senior talent to our team who I believe can help significantly accelerate our growth trajectory. We are future-proofing this business and we know what needs to be done. We are playing to win. In the weeks and months ahead, we are going to be moving with velocity to deliver for our customers and our business. I look forward to talking to you all on our next call in February and laying out our clear plan to win. Thank you, and have a great day.

    最後,我們的員工群體充滿熱情,有動力贏得市場。此外,您還可以期待我們為我們的團隊增加更多高階人才,我相信他們可以幫助大幅加速我們的成長軌跡。我們致力於讓這項業務面向未來,並且我們知道需要做些什麼。我們是為了勝利而戰。在未來的幾週和幾個月裡,我們將快速為我們的客戶和業務提供服務。我期待在二月份的下一次電話會議上與大家交談,並製定我們獲勝的明確計劃。謝謝您,祝您有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,您現在可以斷開連接。