PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Julianne, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to PayPal Holdings' earnings conference call for the fourth quarter 2022. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Ms. Gabrielle Rabinovitch, Senior Vice President and Acting CFO. Please go ahead.

下午好。我叫 Julianne，今天我將擔任你們的會議運營商。此時，我想歡迎大家參加 PayPal Holdings 2022 年第四季度的收益電話會議。（操作員說明）謝謝。現在我想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，高級副總裁兼代理首席財務官 Gabrielle Rabinovitch 女士。請繼續。

Thank you, Julianne. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. Welcome to PayPal's earnings conference call for the fourth quarter and full year 2022. Joining me today on the call is Dan Schulman, our President and CEO. We're providing a slide presentation to accompany our commentary. This conference call is also being webcast, and both the presentation and call are available on our Investor Relations website.

謝謝你，朱麗安。下午好，感謝您加入我們。歡迎來到 PayPal 的第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Dan Schulman。我們將提供幻燈片演示以配合我們的評論。此電話會議也進行了網絡直播，演示文稿和電話會議均可在我們的投資者關係網站上獲得。

In discussing our company's performance, we'll refer to some non-GAAP measures. You can find the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the presentation accompanying this conference call.

在討論我們公司的業績時，我們將參考一些非 GAAP 指標。您可以在本次電話會議隨附的演示文稿中找到這些非 GAAP 措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的調節。

We will make forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations, forecasts and assumptions, and involve risks and uncertainties. These statements include our guidance for the first quarter and full year 2023, our planning assumptions for 2023 and our comments related to anticipated foreign exchange rates, cost savings, operating margin and share repurchase activity. Our actual results may differ materially from these statements. You can find more information about risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our results in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC and available on our Investor Relations website. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements.

我們將根據我們當前的預期、預測和假設做出前瞻性陳述，並涉及風險和不確定性。這些聲明包括我們對 2023 年第一季度和全年的指引、我們對 2023 年的規劃假設以及我們對預期匯率、成本節約、營業利潤率和股票回購活動的評論。我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述存在重大差異。您可以在我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格年度報告和 10-Q 表格季度報告中找到有關可能影響我們結果的風險、不確定性和其他因素的更多信息，這些信息可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。您不應過分依賴任何前瞻性陳述。

All information in this presentation is as of today's date, February 9, 2023. We expressly disclaim any obligation to update this information.

本演示文稿中的所有信息截至今天，即 2023 年 2 月 9 日。我們明確表示不承擔任何更新此信息的義務。

With that, let me turn the call over to Dan.

有了這個，讓我把電話轉給丹。

Thanks, Gabs. Hi, everyone. Thanks for joining us on today's call. Well, we obviously have a lot to cover in the next hour, and I want to be sure we have plenty of time for your questions. So let me jump right into my remarks.

謝謝，加布斯。大家好。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。好吧，在接下來的一個小時內我們顯然有很多內容要討論，我想確保我們有足夠的時間來回答您的問題。因此，讓我直接進入我的發言。

In a difficult macroeconomic environment with the overall growth of e-commerce continuing to slow, we still managed to grow our 2022 revenues by 10% FXN to $27.5 billion. We grew our TPV by 13% FXN, with our branded checkout volumes growing in line with global e-commerce growth. And we processed over $1.35 trillion of volume on our platform.

在電子商務整體增長持續放緩的艱難宏觀經濟環境中，我們仍設法將 2022 年的收入增長了 10% FXN 至 275 億美元。我們的 TPV 增長了 13% FXN，我們的品牌結賬量隨著全球電子商務的增長而增長。我們在我們的平台上處理了超過 1.35 萬億美元的交易量。

Our nontransaction-related OpEx grew by 2.7% for the year, down from 20% growth last year as we operationalized the reduction of over $900 million in costs in both our transaction expense and nontransaction OpEx. And throughout the year, we drove 3,900 basis points of improvement in our non-GAAP EPS growth rate from negative 28% in Q1 to positive 11% in Q4.

我們與非交易相關的運營支出今年增長了 2.7%，低於去年 20% 的增幅，因為我們在交易費用和非交易運營支出方面實施了 9 億多美元的成本削減。全年，我們的非 GAAP 每股收益增長率從第一季度的負 28% 提高到第四季度的正 11%，提高了 3,900 個基點。

We returned $4.2 billion of capital to shareholders in the form of share repurchases, representing more than 80% of our free cash flow, which totaled $5.1 billion in 2022. In the quarter, we set several new milestones, and we returned to operating margin expansion and positive earnings growth. For the first time in our history, we exceeded $7 billion of revenue in the quarter, meeting our guidance of 9% FXN growth with revenues of $7.4 billion. In addition, for the first time ever, we exceeded 6 billion transactions in a quarter, resulting in 51.4 transactions per active account, growing 13% year-over-year.

我們以股票回購的形式向股東返還了 42 億美元的資本，占我們自由現金流的 80% 以上，2022 年自由現金流總計 51 億美元。在本季度，我們設定了幾個新的里程碑，我們恢復了營業利潤率擴張以及盈利的正增長。本季度我們的收入在歷史上首次超過 70 億美元，達到了 9% FXN 增長的指導目標，收入為 74 億美元。此外，我們有史以來第一次在一個季度超過 60 億筆交易，每個活躍賬戶有 51.4 筆交易，同比增長 13%。

We delivered $1.24 in non-GAAP EPS, $0.05 above the midpoint of our guidance, as I mentioned, growing at 11%. The quarter was clearly a positive inflection point and is a direct result of our intense focus and cost discipline and the pursuit of profitable growth.

正如我提到的，我們交付了 1.24 美元的非 GAAP 每股收益，比我們指導的中點高出 0.05 美元，增長率為 11%。本季度顯然是一個積極的轉折點，是我們高度關注和成本控制以及追求盈利增長的直接結果。

I'm particularly pleased with the team's progress to rightsize our cost structure. For the quarter, our nontransaction-related OpEx declined year-over-year by 6%. And we are exiting the year with a run rate ahead of our planned $1.3 billion of savings in 2023. We grew our non-GAAP operating margin to 22.9%, up 115 basis points from a year ago and up sequentially for the second quarter in a row.

我對團隊在調整成本結構方面取得的進展感到特別滿意。本季度，我們與非交易相關的運營支出同比下降 6%。我們以超過我們計劃在 2023 年節省 13 億美元的運行率結束了這一年。我們將非 GAAP 營業利潤率提高到 22.9%，比一年前增加了 115 個基點，並且在第二季度連續上升排。

As we look towards 2023, I want to lay out our thinking about the year ahead. First, we have identified an incremental $600 million of cost savings on top of the $1.3 billion of cost savings previously identified. This includes the very difficult decision to reduce our head count by 7% as we continue to improve our processes and sharpen our focus. We will also continue to reduce our external vendor spend and real estate footprint. We now expect that non-transaction-related OpEx for the full year will decline in the high single digits year-over-year, driving approximately 125 basis points of margin expansion and 18% non-GAAP EPS growth.

展望 2023 年，我想闡述一下我們對未來一年的思考。首先，我們在先前確定的 13 億美元成本節約基礎上確定了 6 億美元的增量成本節約。這包括做出非常艱難的決定，即在我們繼續改進流程和集中精力的同時，將我們的員工人數減少 7%。我們還將繼續減少我們的外部供應商支出和房地產足跡。我們現在預計全年非交易相關的運營支出將同比下降高個位數，推動利潤率增長約 125 個基點和 18% 的非 GAAP 每股收益增長。

The second point I want to make is that we have designed our cost structure and EPS growth targets based on what we believe to be a very conservative planning assumption of mid-single-digit FXN revenue growth rate in order to give high confidence in our ability to deliver our EPS. And the third and final point is that our actual revenue expectations are well higher than that planning assumption. As you can see from our Q1 guide of 9% FXN growth with Q1 non-GAAP EPS anticipated to grow by 23% to 25% to $1.08 to $1.10.

我想說的第二點是，我們根據我們認為非常保守的中個位數 FXN 收入增長率的規劃假設來設計我們的成本結構和 EPS 增長目標，以便對我們的能力充滿信心交付我們的 EPS。第三點也是最後一點是我們的實際收入預期遠高於計劃假設。正如您從我們的第一季度 FXN 增長指南中看到的那樣，第一季度非 GAAP 每股收益預計將增長 23% 至 25%，達到 1.08 美元至 1.10 美元。

I want to emphasize another point, and that is we are confident that our 2023 cost structure enables us to continue to fully invest in our high conviction growth initiatives. We are putting significant resources behind the modernization of our checkout experience in order to defend and grow our market share in our branded checkout business. This includes a drive towards passwordless, one-click native in-app experiences as well as deploying the next generation of advanced checkout using our data and AI capabilities.

我想強調另一點，那就是我們有信心我們的 2023 年成本結構使我們能夠繼續充分投資於我們的高信念增長計劃。我們正在投入大量資源支持結賬體驗的現代化，以捍衛和擴大我們在品牌結賬業務中的市場份額。這包括推動無密碼、一鍵式原生應用程序內體驗，以及使用我們的數據和人工智能功能部署下一代高級結賬。

Although this will be a multiyear initiative and will take time given the scale of our base and our legacy integrations, I am extremely pleased with the progress we made last year. We will continue to deliver scaled growth for Braintree. And last year, we made significant progress in modernizing our architecture and capabilities. These improvements resulted in a substantial number of new sales and incremental volume from existing accounts.

儘管這將是一項多年計劃，並且考慮到我們基地的規模和我們的遺留整合需要時間，但我對我們去年取得的進展感到非常高興。我們將繼續為 Braintree 實現規模化增長。去年，我們在架構和功能現代化方面取得了重大進展。這些改進導致大量新銷售和現有客戶的增量。

In addition, we have an impressive pipeline of opportunity for 2023. In the first half of this year, we intend to fully ramp our unbranded offering to small and midsized businesses, either directly or through channel partners. The launch of PPCP, or PayPal complete payments, will meaningfully expand our unbranded total addressable market by as much as $750 billion, and enables us to drive incremental share with higher margins than our Braintree enterprise service.

此外，我們在 2023 年擁有大量機會。在今年上半年，我們打算直接或通過渠道合作夥伴向中小型企業全面推廣我們的無品牌產品。 PPCP 或 PayPal 完整支付的推出，將有意義地將我們的無品牌總潛在市場擴大 7500 億美元，並使我們能夠以比我們的 Braintree 企業服務更高的利潤率推動增量份額。

On the consumer side, we'll continue to enhance our digital wallet value proposition. We are focused on the end-to-end customer experience from onboarding through the entirety of the consumer life cycle, utilizing more advanced forms of AI to drive optimal consumer choices. In the past 2 years, we have introduced a significant number of products and services. For instance, our Buy Now, Pay Later service is driving significant lifts in checkout and incremental TPV, and it's now one of the most popular buy now, pay later services in the world, with almost 200 million loans to over 30 million consumers since launching in 2020 and with approximately 300,000 merchants putting our Buy Now, Pay Later upstream on their product pages.

在消費者方面，我們將繼續提升我們的數字錢包價值主張。我們專注於從入職到整個消費者生命週期的端到端客戶體驗，利用更先進的人工智能形式來推動最佳消費者選擇。在過去的 2 年中，我們推出了大量的產品和服務。例如，我們的“先買後付”服務正在推動結賬和增量 TPV 的顯著提升，它現在是全球最受歡迎的“先買後付”服務之一，自推出以來已向超過 3000 萬消費者提供近 2 億筆貸款到 2020 年，大約 300,000 家商家將我們的“先買後付”放在他們產品頁面的上游。

We have introduced savings, bill pay, new forms of giving, more ways to send international remittances, new debit and credit cards, rewards, and customize deals and offers all within a single app, and we are now integrating these disparate services into what we hope will be a seamless user experience that is customized across both Venmo and PayPal with the ultimate goal of driving daily usage.

我們推出了儲蓄、賬單支付、新的捐贈形式、更多發送國際匯款的方式、新的借記卡和信用卡、獎勵以及定制交易和優惠，所有這些都在一個應用程序中，我們現在正在將這些不同的服務整合到我們的產品中希望將是一種無縫的用戶體驗，它是在 Venmo 和 PayPal 上定制的，最終目標是推動日常使用。

We need to reestablish P2P as a core anchor for PayPal and Venmo. It is a key driver of usage and often establishes the amount of balance an individual consumer holds in their wallet. The more people store in their balance, the more they use checkout and the better our overall economics. We plan to meaningfully enhance the overall P2P experience including revamping the onboarding experience, reducing declines and introducing more value-added capabilities.

我們需要重新建立 P2P 作為 PayPal 和 Venmo 的核心支柱。它是使用的關鍵驅動因素，通常會確定單個消費者錢包中的餘額。餘額中存儲的人越多，他們使用結賬的次數就越多，我們的整體經濟狀況就越好。我們計劃有意義地增強整體 P2P 體驗，包括改進入職體驗、減少下降和引入更多增值功能。

I'm proud of all the team has done to responsibly innovate. We've made significant strides in upgrading our legacy infrastructure and retiring our technical debt. 8 years ago, we were primarily a monolithic C++ stack. By the end of Q1, we will have completed a full payment stack replatforming, leveraging a modern architecture and the latest software engineering methods. We had record platform availability in 2022, and we put out approximately 80,000 software releases.

我為團隊為負責任地創新所做的一切感到自豪。我們在升級遺留基礎設施和償還技術債務方面取得了重大進展。 8 年前，我們主要是一個單一的 C++ 堆棧。到第一季度末，我們將利用現代架構和最新的軟件工程方法完成完整的支付堆棧平台重構。我們在 2022 年實現了創紀錄的平台可用性，我們發布了大約 80,000 個軟件版本。

Our increased productivity and focused efforts are enabling us to make significant progress every quarter in upgrading our merchant base to our most advanced checkout flows. In 2021, approximately 20% of our top 100 merchants were on our latest checkout experiences. At the end of 2022, 1/3 of our top 100 were in our latest checkout integration, and in 2023, we are targeting to be approximately 50%. And despite an increasingly competitive environment, we are confident that, in total, we continue to hold share across our core markets.

我們提高的生產力和專注的努力使我們每個季度都在將我們的商家基礎升級到我們最先進的結賬流程方面取得重大進展。 2021 年，我們前 100 名商家中約有 20% 使用了我們最新的結賬體驗。到 2022 年底，我們的前 100 名中有 1/3 在我們最新的結帳集成中，到 2023 年，我們的目標是大約 50%。儘管競爭日益激烈，但我們有信心，總的來說，我們將繼續在我們的核心市場佔據份額。

As we look ahead to 2023, we've built our plan to assure proper staffing of our key initiatives. But we also know that we must have a mindset of continuous productivity not just last year, not just this year but in the years ahead. Still difficult to accurately assess how the year ahead will play out in terms of e-commerce growth. If you ask 20 experts, you get 20 different opinions. Our baseline assumption is that discretionary spend will remain under pressure, and global e-commerce growth will be slightly positive year-over-year. That said, we are seeing signs that inflation is beginning to cool, and it's logical to expect that discretionary spend versus nondiscretionary spend will begin to increase.

展望 2023 年，我們制定了計劃，以確保為我們的關鍵舉措配備適當的人員。但我們也知道，我們必須有持續生產力的心態，不僅僅是去年，不僅是今年，而是未來幾年。仍然很難準確評估未來一年在電子商務增長方面的表現。如果你問 20 位專家，你會得到 20 種不同的意見。我們的基線假設是，可自由支配的支出將繼續承受壓力，全球電子商務增長將同比略有正增長。也就是說，我們看到通脹開始降溫的跡象，預計可自由支配支出相對於非自由支配支出將開始增加是合乎邏輯的。

To be clear, we have not built any recent positive economic news into our forecasts. But as I mentioned, our Q1 is off to a much stronger start than we anticipated with branded checkout volumes accelerating nicely from Q4. Longer term, the secular tailwinds that have benefited our business have not changed. And we are confident that when e-commerce growth starts to turn and grow at more historical double-digit rates, we will be extremely well positioned to capitalize on that shift and drive even higher revenue growth with increased margins.

需要明確的是，我們沒有將任何近期積極的經濟消息納入我們的預測。但正如我所提到的，我們的第一季度開局比我們預期的要強勁得多，品牌結賬量從第四季度開始加速增長。從長遠來看，有利於我們業務的長期順風並沒有改變。我們相信，當電子商務增長開始轉向並以歷史兩位數的速度增長時，我們將處於非常有利的地位，可以利用這一轉變，並通過提高利潤率來推動更高的收入增長。

Finally, I'd like to address my plans around CEO succession. As some of you have noted, I turned 65 last month, albeit I will say, a very young 65. The Board and I discussed CEO succession multiple times a year, and that I have informed the Board that I plan to retire from serving as the President and CEO of PayPal at the end of this year.

最後，我想談談我關於 CEO 繼任的計劃。正如你們中的一些人所指出的，我上個月剛滿 65 歲，雖然我會說，是一個非常年輕的 65 歲。董事會和我每年多次討論 CEO 繼任問題，並且我已經通知董事會我計劃退休今年年底將成為 PayPal 總裁兼首席執行官。

I felt there were 2 important considerations in terms of timing. First, I wanted to be sure that PayPal had positive momentum and was in position to deliver a solid year of performance, so I can be sure I wasn't leaving the company in a difficult position. And second, it was important to me that the Board have enough time to conduct a thorough search and have a reasonable transition period.

我覺得在時間安排方面有兩個重要的考慮因素。首先，我想確定 PayPal 有積極的發展勢頭，能夠實現穩健的一年業績，所以我可以確定我離開公司時不會陷入困境。其次，對我來說重要的是董事會有足夠的時間進行徹底的搜索並有一個合理的過渡期。

In a global business as complex as PayPal, there are important relationships with government officials and regulators across the world, with the CEOs of our partners and with the CEOs of our customers that will need to be thoughtfully transitioned. I feel that a year gives the Board enough runway to find the next leader of PayPal and time for an orderly transition.

在像 PayPal 這樣複雜的全球業務中，與世界各地的政府官員和監管機構、我們合作夥伴的 CEO 以及我們客戶的 CEO 之間存在著重要的關係，這些關係需要經過深思熟慮地進行過渡。我覺得一年給了董事會足夠的時間來尋找 PayPal 的下一任領導者，並有時間進行有序的交接。

Of course, I will be flexible in my time frame in order to assure we seamlessly onboard the ideal next leader of PayPal, and I look forward to continuing to serve on the PayPal Board. I'm eager to see the next CEO build on all we have accomplished in the last 8.5 years and seize the immense potential ahead of us. In the meantime, I will remain fully focused on maintaining our momentum and executing on our plan.

當然，我會在我的時間框架內靈活安排，以確保我們順利接任理想的 PayPal 下一任領導者，我期待繼續在 PayPal 董事會任職。我渴望看到下一任 CEO 以我們過去 8.5 年所取得的成就為基礎，抓住我們面前的巨大潛力。與此同時，我將繼續全神貫注於保持我們的勢頭並執行我們的計劃。

Since our IPO, PayPal's stock price has outpaced the S&P 500. And as you can see in our investor deck, our revenues, TPV, earnings and free cash flow have all tripled in size during that same time period. However, I feel confident that now is a time where our business has hit multiple positive inflection points. By the end of this year, we will have the appropriate cost structure to ensure that we deliver profitable growth with consistent and healthy non-GAAP EPS growth. And more importantly, we are confident we have the right road map in place to drive continued improvements in our customer experiences so that we remain a global leader in digital payments.

自我們首次公開募股以來，PayPal 的股價已經超過了標準普爾 500 指數。正如您在我們的投資者平台上看到的那樣，我們的收入、TPV、收益和自由現金流在同一時期都增長了兩倍。但是，我相信現在是我們的業務達到多個積極拐點的時候。到今年年底，我們將擁有適當的成本結構，以確保我們實現盈利增長，同時實現持續健康的非 GAAP 每股收益增長。更重要的是，我們相信我們已經制定了正確的路線圖來推動客戶體驗的持續改進，從而使我們保持數字支付領域的全球領導者地位。

In this current environment with so many of our competitors struggling to make money, we see a path to emerge from this economic downturn in a position of increased strength. We are quite encouraged as we look out at 2023 and beyond.

在當前的環境中，我們的許多競爭對手都在為賺錢而苦苦掙扎，我們看到了一條擺脫經濟衰退、增強實力的道路。展望 2023 年及以後，我們感到非常鼓舞。

I want to thank all of our employees for the outstanding work and passion they display every day. We still have a lot to accomplish, but we are finally at the point where 2023 can be a transformational year for our customers and our shareholders. Thank you. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Gabs.

我要感謝我們所有的員工每天所做的出色工作和熱情。我們還有很多工作要做，但我們終於到了 2023 年對我們的客戶和股東來說將是轉型的一年。謝謝。有了這個，我會把電話轉給 Gabs。

Thanks, Dan. I'd like to start off by thanking our customers, partners and global team for helping us to deliver a solid quarter. The results we're reporting today demonstrate the strength, resilience and diversification of our business. We accelerated earnings growth on both a year-over-year and sequential basis despite ongoing pressure on e-commerce throughout our core markets. We continue to navigate this dynamic operating environment with strong discipline and a renewed focus on our key priorities.

謝謝，丹。首先，我要感謝我們的客戶、合作夥伴和全球團隊幫助我們實現了穩健的季度業績。我們今天報告的結果證明了我們業務的實力、彈性和多元化。儘管整個核心市場的電子商務持續面臨壓力，但我們在同比和環比的基礎上都加快了盈利增長。我們將繼續以嚴格的紀律和重新關注我們的關鍵優先事項來駕馭這個動態的運營環境。

While the macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging, we're energized by the significant opportunity we have to advance our leadership in payments and better serve our customers. We believe this is an environment where the strong will get stronger and where our scale, profitability and stability make us a partner of choice and a formidable competitor in the payments ecosystem.

儘管宏觀經濟背景仍然充滿挑戰，但我們面臨著提升我們在支付領域的領導地位並更好地為客戶服務的重大機遇，這讓我們倍感振奮。我們相信這是一個強者愈強的環境，我們的規模、盈利能力和穩定性使我們成為支付生態系統中的首選合作夥伴和強大的競爭對手。

Our results reflect our efforts to manage our business with greater discipline and deliver operating margin expansion. Our ongoing savings efforts are resulting in sustainable efficiencies for our business. In addition, we're investing in our high-conviction growth initiatives to ensure that we emerge stronger from this period of economic uncertainty.

我們的業績反映了我們努力以更嚴格的紀律管理我們的業務並實現營業利潤率的增長。我們持續的節約努力正在為我們的業務帶來可持續的效率。此外，我們正在投資於我們的高信念增長計劃，以確保我們從這段經濟不確定時期變得更加強大。

We're proud of the quarter we delivered. Relative to the fourth quarter targets we shared with you in November, our non-GAAP EPS outperformed, and our revenue was in line. Importantly, the sequential improvement in our earnings growth continued. The fourth quarter was an inflection point as our non-GAAP operating margin expanded for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, marking a return to profitable growth. We have now established a solid foundation to build on these results. And in 2023, we plan to deliver meaningful non-GAAP operating margin expansion and a significantly stronger non-GAAP earnings profile.

我們為我們交付的季度感到自豪。相對於我們在 11 月份與您分享的第四季度目標，我們的非 GAAP 每股收益表現出色，我們的收入符合預期。重要的是，我們的盈利增長持續改善。第四季度是一個轉折點，因為我們的非 GAAP 營業利潤率自 2021 年第一季度以來首次擴大，標誌著盈利增長的回歸。我們現在已經為在這些成果的基礎上再接再厲奠定了堅實的基礎。到 2023 年，我們計劃實現有意義的非 GAAP 營業利潤率增長和顯著增強的非 GAAP 盈利狀況。

Before discussing our 2023 outlook, I'd like to highlight our fourth quarter performance. As Dan mentioned, revenue increased 9% on a currency-neutral basis and 7% at spot to $7.38 billion. This represents a 3-year revenue CAGR of 14% and 19%, excluding eBay. Transaction revenue grew 5% to $6.7 billion, driven primarily by Braintree and Venmo. Other value-added services revenue grew 26% to $681 million. Relative to last year, this performance resulted from higher interest income on customer store balances and positive contributions from both our merchant and consumer credit products.

在討論我們的 2023 年展望之前，我想強調一下我們第四季度的表現。正如 Dan 所提到的，收入在貨幣中性基礎上增長了 9%，現貨增長了 7%，達到 73.8 億美元。這代表 3 年收入複合年增長率分別為 14% 和 19%，不包括 eBay。主要受 Braintree 和 Venmo 推動，交易收入增長 5% 至 67 億美元。其他增值服務收入增長 26% 至 6.81 億美元。與去年相比，這一業績源於客戶商店餘額的更高利息收入以及我們的商業和消費信貸產品的積極貢獻。

In the fourth quarter, U.S. revenue grew 10% and international revenue grew 2% at spot. On a currency-neutral basis, international revenue grew 6%. We had solid take rate performance. Transaction take rate was 1.88%, flat to last year, and total take rate improved 3 basis points to 2.07%.

第四季度，美國收入增長 10%，國際收入增長 2%。在貨幣中性的基礎上，國際收入增長了 6%。我們有穩固的接受率表現。交易成交率為 1.88%，與去年持平，總成交率為 2.07%，上升 3 個基點。

eBay Marketplaces revenue declined 31%, and the take rate on these volumes decreased to 1.95% from 2.29% in Q4 2021. This was offset by a 4 basis point increase on the rest of our volume. Transaction expense came in at 93 basis points as a rate of TPV relative to 87 basis points as a rate last year. The increase in transaction expense as a rate was primarily driven by higher growth in unbranded processing volumes relative to other contributors to our payment volume mix.

eBay 市場收入下降了 31%，這些交易量的抽成率從 2021 年第四季度的 2.29% 下降到 1.95%。這被我們其餘交易量增加 4 個基點所抵消。交易費用佔 TPV 的比率為 93 個基點，而去年為 87 個基點。交易費用的增加主要是由於非品牌處理量相對於我們支付量組合的其他貢獻者的更高增長。

Transaction loss as a rate of TPV improved to 6 basis points versus 9 basis points last year. Our loss rate in the quarter benefited from the release of a portion of reserves related to recoveries from a merchant insolvency proceeding. This reserve was originally taken in the second quarter of 2022 and was a drag on that quarter's transaction loss performance. In addition, Venmo loss performance improved relative to the fourth quarter last year.

作為 TPV 比率的交易損失從去年的 9 個基點提高到 6 個基點。我們本季度的虧損率得益於與商業破產程序中的追回相關的部分準備金的釋放。該準備金最初是在 2022 年第二季度提取的，拖累了該季度的交易虧損表現。此外，與去年第四季度相比，Venmo 的虧損表現有所改善。

Credit losses were $174 million or 5 basis points as a rate of TPV. We ended Q4 with $7.4 billion in net receivables, reflecting 24% sequential growth. The growth in Buy Now, Pay Later receivables was the largest driver of loan origination. In 2023, we plan to externalize a meaningful portion of our Pay Later receivables portfolio, reducing our balance sheet exposure and securing a sustainable long-term funding partner for this part of our business. The mix of shorter duration originations from our Pay Later product and solid performance of our overall portfolio resulted in a reserve coverage ratio of 7.4%, flat sequentially and 180 basis points lower than the fourth quarter last year.

信用損失為 1.74 億美元或 5 個基點作為 TPV 的比率。第四季度末，我們的應收賬款淨額為 74 億美元，環比增長 24%。 “先買後付”應收賬款的增長是貸款發放的最大驅動力。在 2023 年，我們計劃將我們的後付款應收賬款組合中的重要部分外部化，減少我們的資產負債表風險，並為我們這部分業務確保可持續的長期融資合作夥伴。我們的 Pay Later 產品的持續時間較短的貸款和我們整體投資組合的穩健表現相結合，導致準備金覆蓋率為 7.4%，環比持平，比去年第四季度低 180 個基點。

In the aggregate, volume-based expenses increased 12%. This increase was more than offset by a 6% decline in our nontransaction-related expenses. Cost savings initiatives and efficiency gains contributed to this performance across all major expense categories. As a result of this discipline, non-GAAP operating margin -- operating income grew 12% to $1.69 billion, and non-GAAP operating margin reached 22.9%, expanding 115 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2021. In addition, for the fourth quarter, non-GAAP EPS was $1.24, growing 11% from Q4 '21 and marking the first quarter in 2022 that earnings per share grew on a year-over-year basis.

總的來說，基於數量的費用增加了 12%。這一增長被我們的非交易相關費用下降 6% 所抵消。成本節約舉措和效率提升促成了所有主要支出類別的業績。由於這一紀律，非 GAAP 營業利潤率 - 營業收入增長 12% 至 16.9 億美元，非 GAAP 營業利潤率達到 22.9%，比 2021 年第四季度擴大 115 個基點。此外，第四季度本季度，非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.24 美元，比 21 年第四季度增長 11%，標誌著 2022 年第一季度每股收益同比增長。

We ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and investments of $15.9 billion. During the quarter, we generated $1.4 billion in free cash flow, which resulted in $5.1 billion of free cash flow generation in 2022. In the fourth quarter, we completed an additional $1 billion in share repurchase, which brings our capital return in 2022 to $4.2 billion, representing 82% of the free cash flow we generated.

本季度末，我們擁有 159 億美元的現金、現金等價物和投資。本季度，我們產生了 14 億美元的自由現金流，這導致 2022 年產生了 51 億美元的自由現金流。第四季度，我們又完成了 10 億美元的股票回購，這使我們 2022 年的資本回報率達到 4.2 美元億，占我們產生的自由現金流的 82%。

As noted last summer, we've taken a more aggressive approach to our capital return program over the past several quarters. We continue to believe that share repurchase remains an excellent use of capital for our shareholders.

正如去年夏天指出的那樣，在過去的幾個季度中，我們對資本回報計劃採取了更積極的態度。我們仍然相信，股票回購對我們的股東來說仍然是一種很好的資本利用方式。

I would now like to discuss our outlook for 2023. For the first quarter, as Dan mentioned, we expect revenue to grow approximately 9% on a foreign currency-neutral basis and approximately 7.5% at spot to $6.97 billion. We also expect non-GAAP EPS to be in the range of $1.08 to $1.10, representing growth of approximately 24%.

我現在想討論一下我們對 2023 年的展望。正如 Dan 所提到的，我們預計第一季度收入在外幣中性基礎上增長約 9%，即期收入增長約 7.5% 至 69.7 億美元。我們還預計非 GAAP 每股收益將在 1.08 美元至 1.10 美元之間，增長約 24%。

The first quarter is off to a great start and sets us up well for the year ahead. We are encouraged by what we're seeing but remain vigilant as there continues to be potential for variability as we move through 2023. Since the beginning of the pandemic, forecasting 4 quarters ahead has been especially challenging. And while the direct impact from COVID is now largely behind us, the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment remains uncertain. The rate of e-commerce growth in our core markets has decelerated. Inflationary pressures have affected discretionary consumer spending, and post-COVID spending patterns are still evolving. As a result, we're not providing guidance for full year revenue growth at this time. We will guide the quarter ahead and believe this is a responsible approach.

第一季度開局良好，為來年做好了準備。我們對所看到的情況感到鼓舞，但仍保持警惕，因為隨著 2023 年的到來，變化的可能性仍然存在。自大流行開始以來，預測未來 4 個季度尤其具有挑戰性。雖然 COVID 的直接影響現在已基本過去，但宏觀經濟和地緣政治環境仍然不確定。我們核心市場的電子商務增長速度已經放緩。通脹壓力影響了可自由支配的消費支出，而 COVID 後的支出模式仍在演變。因此，我們目前不提供全年收入增長的指導。我們將指導未來的季度，並相信這是一種負責任的做法。

As Dan indicated, for the full year, we now expect non-GAAP EPS to grow 18%. This is an increase from the outlook of 15% growth we discussed when we reported third quarter results. Relative to our prior expectations for the year, our forecasted tax rate increased, and we now expect the externalization of part of our Pay Later receivables portfolio to result in several cents of dilution. Offsetting these headwinds are benefits from additional cost savings, higher interest income and from a shift from cash compensation to stock for a portion of our annual incentive plan, increasing share-based compensation.

正如 Dan 所指出的，對於全年，我們現在預計非 GAAP 每股收益將增長 18%。這比我們在報告第三季度業績時討論的 15% 增長前景有所提高。相對於我們之前對今年的預期，我們的預測稅率有所上升，我們現在預計我們的部分後付款應收賬款組合的外部化將導致幾美分的攤薄。抵消這些不利因素的好處是額外的成本節約、更高的利息收入以及我們年度激勵計劃的一部分從現金補償轉向股票，增加基於股票的補償。

In putting together our financial architecture for the year and guiding 18% non-GAAP EPS growth, we have been prudent about our planning assumptions for our revenue performance and in establishing an efficient cost structure that enables us to deliver on this commitment. We believe we can deliver 18% earnings growth even with revenue growth in the mid-single digits on a currency-neutral basis. That said, our objective is to grow revenue ahead of this baseline. Our revenue growth is highly correlated to discretionary e-commerce spending in our core markets. We are optimistic that when e-commerce growth reaccelerates, we will fare better than most.

在整合我們今年的財務架構並指導 18% 的非 GAAP 每股收益增長時，我們對收入績效的規劃假設以及建立有效的成本結構以實現這一承諾一直持謹慎態度。我們相信，即使收入在貨幣中性基礎上實現中個位數增長，我們也可以實現 18% 的盈利增長。也就是說，我們的目標是在該基線之前增加收入。我們的收入增長與我們核心市場的可自由支配的電子商務支出高度相關。我們樂觀地認為，當電子商務增長重新加速時，我們將比大多數人過得更好。

In addition, our framework contemplates as much as a high single-digit decline in nontransaction-related expenses on a year-over-year basis. Over the past year, we significantly increased the operational rigor with which we run our business. We've sharpened our focus on strategic priorities, strengthened our planning process and increased our discipline with respect to capital allocation. We've also begun to realize benefits from cost savings initiatives.

此外，我們的框架預計非交易相關費用同比下降高達個位數。在過去的一年裡，我們顯著提高了經營業務的嚴謹性。我們加強了對戰略優先事項的關注，加強了我們的規劃流程，並加強了我們在資本配置方面的紀律。我們也開始意識到成本節約舉措的好處。

We are continuing our work removing complexity within our organization. We believe we are on track with streamlining and resetting our cost base and essentially putting ourselves back on a pre-pandemic trajectory with respect to our nontransaction-related expense profile relative to our growth. Accordingly, we believe we're well positioned to scale more profitably and sustainably going forward.

我們正在繼續努力消除組織內部的複雜性。我們相信，我們正在精簡和重置我們的成本基礎，並從根本上讓我們在與我們的增長相關的非交易相關費用方面回到大流行前的軌跡。因此，我們相信我們已做好充分準備，可以更有利可圖、更可持續地向前發展。

I'd also like to share more on our expectations for foreign exchange. Our revenue guidance for the first quarter contemplates an approximate 150 basis point headwind from FX. Foreign exchange rates, we expect an approximate 1 point headwind to full year revenue growth.

我還想分享更多關於我們對外彙的期望。我們對第一季度的收入指引考慮了來自外彙的大約 150 個基點的逆風。外匯匯率，我們預計全年收入增長將出現大約 1 個百分點的逆風。

In addition, as we have discussed, we're prioritizing engagement. We have approximately 190 million monthly active unique users on our platform today. Increasing the activity and engagement level of these users, converting new ones and driving more daily use is one of our greatest opportunities. While we will continue to track and report on our active accounts each quarter, we will no longer guide net new active accounts. Given our strategic focus, we do not expect total active accounts to grow in2023. That said, we have confidence that our monthly active unique user base will be stable to growing.

此外，正如我們所討論的，我們正在優先考慮參與。今天，我們的平台上每月有大約 1.9 億活躍的獨立用戶。增加這些用戶的活動和參與度、轉化新用戶並推動更多日常使用是我們最大的機會之一。雖然我們將繼續每個季度跟踪和報告我們的活躍賬戶，但我們將不再指導淨新增活躍賬戶。鑑於我們的戰略重點，我們預計活躍賬戶總數在 2023 年不會增長。也就是說，我們有信心我們每月活躍的獨立用戶群將穩定增長。

Finally, in 2023, we expect to generate approximately $5 billion in free cash flow. We plan to continue our aggressive posture towards capital return and allocate approximately 75% of our free cash flow to share repurchase in 2023.

最後，到 2023 年，我們預計將產生約 50 億美元的自由現金流。我們計劃繼續保持積極進取的資本回報姿態，並在 2023 年將大約 75% 的自由現金流用於股票回購。

In closing, we're pleased with the progress we're making across many fronts and with our momentum. Our team is working tirelessly to serve our customers, advance our strategic priorities and improve our cost structure. The cash flow generating power of our business is a competitive differentiator and gives us a high degree of flexibility as we allocate capital with discipline.

最後，我們對我們在許多方面取得的進展和我們的勢頭感到高興。我們的團隊正在孜孜不倦地為我們的客戶服務，推進我們的戰略重點並改善我們的成本結構。我們業務的現金流產生能力是一個競爭優勢，並在我們有紀律地分配資本時為我們提供了高度的靈活性。

Whatever macroeconomic conditions we face, we will continue to deepen our focus, invest in innovation in our people for the long term and strengthen our competitive advantages. We look forward to sustainably delivering long-term profitable growth and creating value for our shareholders.

無論我們面臨什麼樣的宏觀經濟狀況，我們都將繼續深化重點，長期投資於我們員工的創新，並加強我們的競爭優勢。我們期待可持續地實現長期盈利增長並為我們的股東創造價值。

Before I pass it back to the operator to begin the Q&A portion of the call, I'd like to give an update on our plans for the year. Later this year, we will host a meeting for the investment community to provide an update on our strategic road map and introduce you to more of our leadership team. We're targeting the latter part of Q2, and we'll share more as we get closer.

在我將它傳回給接線員開始電話的問答部分之前，我想介紹一下我們今年的計劃的最新情況。今年晚些時候，我們將為投資界舉辦一次會議，提供我們戰略路線圖的最新信息，並向您介紹我們更多的領導團隊。我們的目標是第二季度的後半部分，我們會在臨近時分享更多。

With that, I will turn the call back to the operator. Julianne, please go ahead.

有了這個，我會把電話轉回接線員。朱麗安，請繼續。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Lisa Ellis from SVB MoffettNathanson.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 SVB MoffettNathanson 的 Lisa Ellis。

Dan, wow, big news. I'm sad already, and you're not leaving for another year. It has been such a journey over the last 8 years. Can you just talk a little bit more about your thought process, your decision around choosing to retire now versus, say, a year ago or a year from now? And then also perhaps comment on, in your view, what sort of profile would make the ideal next CEO of PayPal.

丹，哇，大新聞。我已經很傷心了，你不會再離開一年了。在過去的 8 年裡，這是一段這樣的旅程。你能多談談你的思考過程嗎？你決定現在退休而不是一年前或一年後？然後，也許還可以評論一下，在您看來，什麼樣的背景才能成為 PayPal 理想的下一任 CEO。

Yes. Thanks, Lisa, for that. I'm going to miss you, too. But as you said, we've got a year ahead of us here. So look, there's never a good time to retire because it's always a bittersweet moment. I love working here at PayPal. I love working with all the incredibly talented people here. I'm proud of all we've accomplished. But as I've gotten older, I also realize I have a lot of passions outside the workplace as well. These range from politics to nonprofits to academia. I want to do a lot of travel. And frankly, I want to spend a lot more time with the people that I love.

是的。謝謝，麗莎，為此。我也會想你的。但正如你所說，我們在這裡還有一年的時間。所以看，從來沒有退休的好時機，因為它總是一個苦樂參半的時刻。我喜歡在 PayPal 工作。我喜歡和這裡所有才華橫溢的人一起工作。我為我們所取得的成就感到自豪。但隨著年齡的增長，我也意識到我在工作場所之外也有很多熱情。這些範圍從政治到非營利組織再到學術界。我想做很多旅行。坦率地說，我想花更多的時間和我愛的人在一起。

But I had 2 criteria for when that right timing was. I mean the first one was I wanted to be absolutely sure that PayPal was on solid footing with a bright future. And as we look at kind of the quarter we delivered in Q4, as we look at what's happening in Q1 right now, which is coming in much stronger than we anticipated across a wide variety of fronts, we feel that 2023 is shaping up to be a strong year. And we think we have a real nice glide path as we go into '24 as well. And so that kind of like leaving the company in a good place seemed to be a good time for that.

但我有 2 個標準來判斷正確的時機。我的意思是第一個是我想絕對確定 PayPal 擁有堅實的基礎和光明的未來。當我們審視我們在第四季度交付的季度的情況時，當我們審視目前第一季度發生的事情時，它在各個方面都比我們預期的要強勁得多，我們認為 2023 年將成為強勁的一年。而且我們認為我們也有一個非常好的滑行路徑，因為我們也進入了 24 年。因此，將公司留在一個好地方似乎是個好時機。

And the other thing is that I wanted to be sure that the Board had enough time to do a thorough search and an orderly transition after we find the right CEO. As I mentioned, it's a complex business. We have massive scale on both the consumer side, on the B2B side. We're a financial services company, but we're also a tech company. We're heavily regulated across the world. There are a number of experience sets and leadership traits that the Board will be looking for. And they'll work with a search firm to look across the entire landscape to be sure that we find the best possible person to seize what I think is a very bright future for PayPal, and I really look forward to working with that person and doing an orderly transition.

另一件事是，我想確保董事會有足夠的時間在我們找到合適的 CEO 後進行徹底的搜索和有序的交接。正如我所提到的，這是一項複雜的業務。我們在消費者方面和 B2B 方面都擁有巨大的規模。我們是一家金融服務公司，但我們也是一家科技公司。我們在世界各地受到嚴格監管。董事會將尋找許多經驗集和領導特質。他們將與一家搜索公司合作，縱觀整個領域，以確保我們找到最合適的人選來抓住我認為 PayPal 非常光明的未來，我真的很期待與那個人合作並做有序過渡。

And of course, I'm going to be flexible in my time frame. If that happens sooner, great. If it takes longer, I've told the Board that I'm willing to stay on slightly longer as well just to be sure we get the right person. And until then, you can be sure that every single day, I'm going to be fully focused on execution. Just ask my team that, and they'll tell you the same thing and making sure that we continue the momentum that we have. And so hopefully, that helps a little bit, Lisa.

當然，我會在我的時間框架內保持靈活性。如果這種情況早點發生，那就太好了。如果需要更長的時間，我已經告訴董事會，我願意再待久一點，只是為了確保我們找到合適的人選。在那之前，你可以確定每一天，我都會完全專注於執行。只要問我的團隊，他們就會告訴你同樣的事情，並確保我們繼續保持現有的勢頭。所以希望這能有所幫助，麗莎。

Our next question comes from Darrin Peller from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Darrin Peller。

Dan, I also want to reiterate what Lisa said. Sorry to see you go, but I can only concur that you are a very young mid-60s person that we all strive to be like. Let me just ask more on the expectations if you don't mind, I mean -- and to be sure, to you or Gabrielle. You guys touched on, I guess, embedding mid-single digits in the guide or maybe better than that with your expectation to achieve better. How should we think about the cadence just considering how much higher the growth rate should be starting off in Q1 per your guidance? And then if you can give us any color on expectations around transaction revenue or OVAS and Braintree or core branded, anything else that could be provided would be great.

丹，我還想重申麗莎所說的話。很遺憾看到你離開，但我只能同意你是一個非常年輕的 60 多歲的人，我們都努力成為這樣的人。如果你不介意的話，讓我問更多關於期望的問題，我的意思是 - 可以肯定的是，對你或加布里埃爾。我猜，你們觸及了，在指南中嵌入了中個位數，或者可能比你們期望的更好。根據您的指導，考慮到第一季度的增長率應該高多少，我們應該如何考慮節奏？然後，如果你能給我們關於交易收入或 OVAS 和 Braintree 或核心品牌的預期任何顏色，那麼任何其他可以提供的東西都會很棒。

Yes. Yes. So Dan, I want to separate out 2 things that I was afraid might be conflated, which aren't linked. Okay? The first one is, when we were looking at our cost structure to deliver an 18% EPS growth and to make sure that we fully staffed our high conviction growth areas, we wanted to look at what we thought would be a worst-case revenue assumption, right, because we don't want to be chasing our cost structure. Before, we were like, okay, what's the worst case that could happen. We could do mid-single digits FXN growth. That would mean that you've got Europe going into recession, U.S. going into recession, inflation stays high, discretionary spend remains muted. And that's what we built our cost structure around to give us and to give you high confidence that the 18% that we're guiding to is something that we can deliver in pretty much any economic scenario that we could imagine. So that's kind of assumption set #1 was around our cost structure and the revenue around it.

是的。是的。所以丹，我想把我擔心可能會混淆的兩件事分開，這兩件事沒有聯繫。好的？第一個是，當我們審視我們的成本結構以實現 18% 的每股收益增長並確保我們在高信念增長領域配備充足的人員時，我們想看看我們認為最壞情況下的收入假設，對，因為我們不想追逐我們的成本結構。之前，我們就像，好吧，可能發生的最壞情況是什麼。我們可以實現 FXN 中個位數的增長。這將意味著歐洲陷入衰退，美國陷入衰退，通脹居高不下，可自由支配的支出仍然低迷。這就是我們建立成本結構的基礎，讓我們並讓您高度相信我們所指導的 18% 是我們可以在幾乎任何我們可以想像的經濟情景中提供的東西。所以這是一種假設集 #1 是圍繞我們的成本結構及其周圍的收入。

Number two, though, is our revenue expectations. And we clearly are expecting something very different than the worst-case scenario that we have in place for our cost structure. We're assuming, as we think about the year ahead, that we hold or slightly grow our share globally. As Gabs said in her remarks, there's a lot of moving parts that could happen here, and we want to be responsible in our guidance for revenues. And we saw last year that revenue can move from quarter-to-quarter, but we're pretty darn accurate when we guide in the quarter ahead.

不過，第二是我們的收入預期。我們顯然期待與我們為成本結構制定的最壞情況截然不同的情況。在考慮未來一年時，我們假設我們在全球範圍內保持或略微增加我們的份額。正如 Gabs 在她的評論中所說，這裡可能會發生很多變化，我們希望對我們的收入指導負責。去年我們看到收入可以從一個季度轉移到另一個季度，但是當我們在未來一個季度進行指導時，我們非常準確。

And so we put out a 9% revenue guide in Q1. And frankly, Darrin, Q1 is off to a very strong start for us. We're seeing widespread acceleration both in January and February. We're seeing it in branded checkout, which has stepped up quite nicely from Q4. We're seeing it in our Braintree services as well. Buy Now, Pay Later continues to accelerate for us, so much stronger than we expected. We wouldn't say 9% if we didn't feel confident in that number as well as the 24% at the midpoint on our EPS guide.

因此，我們在第一季度發布了 9% 的收入指南。坦率地說，Darrin，Q1 對我們來說是一個非常強勁的開端。我們看到 1 月和 2 月普遍加速。我們在品牌結賬中看到了這一點，它從第四季度開始有了很好的提升。我們也在我們的 Braintree 服務中看到它。 Buy Now, Pay Later 繼續為我們加速發展，比我們預期的要強大得多。如果我們對這個數字以及 EPS 指南中點的 24% 沒有信心，我們就不會說 9%。

There's still a lot of the year ahead of us, right? We're 5, 6 weeks into the first quarter, but it's clearly off to a very strong start, and we will have more as we report out Q1 earnings, as we look into Q2 that may inform how we're thinking about the full year. But we just didn't want to get ahead of ourselves. And also, we want to be really responsible in the guidance that we give. Anything you would add to that, Gabs?

我們還有很多年，對吧？我們進入第一季度已有 5、6 週，但顯然開局非常強勁，我們將在報告第一季度收益時獲得更多收益，因為我們會調查第二季度，這可能會告知我們如何考慮全部年。但我們只是不想超越自己。而且，我們希望對我們提供的指導真正負責。 Gabs，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, maybe just to add a little more detail on kind of the trajectory of the year, I'd say just we're focused on delivering a great year, and we think we've set ourselves up to do that. At the same time, to Dan's point, we're definitely not going to get ahead of ourselves so early on.

是的，也許只是為了增加一些關於今年軌蹟的細節，我想說的是我們專注於創造一個偉大的一年，我們認為我們已經準備好做到這一點。同時，就 Dan 的觀點而言，我們絕對不會這麼早就超前。

I would point out some dynamics, though, that we're growing over in 2023 relative to 2022, which will make the first half of the year probably stronger from a revenue growth standpoint than the back half. That really relates to an expectation of Braintree deceleration. Braintree has had exceptional growth, and we have a great ramp of merchant volumes coming on this year with new merchants as well as additional volumes we expect to get from existing merchants. At the same time, just given the exceptional growth we had last year, we do expect a little bit of detail into the back half. I'd also say, given the interest rate environment and how we're currently positioned in our book, we'd expect the incremental benefit from the higher interest rate environment to benefit us more in the first half than the back half as we lap some of those benefits from last year. And so that would create a little bit of decel as well.

不過，我要指出一些動態，即我們在 2023 年相對於 2022 年的增長，這將使今年上半年從收入增長的角度來看可能比下半年更強勁。這確實與布倫特里減速的預期有關。 Braintree 取得了非凡的增長，今年我們的商家數量將大幅增加，新商家以及我們希望從現有商家那裡獲得的額外數量。與此同時，鑑於我們去年取得的非凡增長，我們確實希望後半部分有一些細節。我還要說，考慮到利率環境以及我們目前在賬簿中的定位，我們預計較高利率環境帶來的增量收益將使我們在上半年比後半年受益更多其中一些收益來自去年。因此，這也會產生一點減速。

And then finally, there were some pricing changes that we made in 2022 that were predominantly front half loaded. And so we start to lap those as well. So just in terms of the shape of the year, I would expect a little bit of decel as we move into the back half.

最後，我們在 2022 年進行了一些定價更改，主要是前半載。因此，我們也開始對它們進行測試。因此，就今年的情況而言，我預計在我們進入後半段時會有所放緩。

Our next question comes from James Faucette from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 James Faucette。

Great. Dan, I'll add my thanks, and looking forward to a last final year, man, so it should be fun. I wanted to ask quickly on the branded checkout point. It sounds like you feel like you're kind of growing consistent with the market, if that's accurate, and what you're seeing kind of early in the year. And perhaps more importantly, what are you thinking about in terms of when we can start to see some of the improvements impact, maybe share but more importantly, engagement, et cetera, with the customer base?

偉大的。丹，我要表示感謝，期待最後一年，伙計，所以它應該很有趣。我想快速詢問品牌結賬點。聽起來你覺得自己在某種程度上與市場保持一致，如果這是準確的話，以及你在今年年初看到的情況。也許更重要的是，您在考慮什麼時候我們可以開始看到一些改進的影響，也許與客戶群分享但更重要的是參與等等？

Yes. Well, I think that's an incredibly important question. You saw probably in our investor deck, James, that our branded checkout volumes grew by 5% for the year. That's lapping 23% in 2021 and 38% in 2020. And that really is following the shape of e-commerce.

是的。好吧，我認為這是一個非常重要的問題。詹姆斯，你可能在我們的投資者平台上看到，我們的品牌結賬量今年增長了 5%。到 2021 年將達到 23%，到 2020 年將達到 38%。這確實是在遵循電子商務的模式。

Part of the reason why there's questions around this and some mix commentary is that there's no perfect data source for market share. Share, obviously, for us, it varies by country, by channel, whether it's mobile, mobile web, desktop and by merchant size, whether you look at large enterprise or small or midsize. And we look at everything that we possibly can and look at e-commerce growth around the world. And we look at 2022 -- 2022 e-commerce growth is probably mid-single digits, maybe lower than that across the world.

對此存在疑問和一些混合評論的部分原因是市場份額沒有完美的數據源。顯然，對我們來說，共享因國家/地區、渠道、移動、移動網絡、桌面和商家規模而異，無論您是看大型企業還是小型或中型企業。我們會盡我們所能，審視全球電子商務的增長。我們著眼於 2022 年——2022 年的電子商務增長可能是中等個位數，可能低於全球範圍。

By the way, that 5% was roughly the same in the U.S. as well. And so overall, we feel like we, at a minimum, held share to global trends. And I think there's some interesting commentary out there. But one of the things that is important to realize is digital wallets, in general, including PayPal, have been growing share overall. We grew share over 100 basis points during the pandemic. We've held it since there, but we continue to take share from manual card entry.

順便說一句，這 5% 在美國也大致相同。所以總的來說，我們覺得我們至少在全球趨勢中佔有一席之地。我認為那裡有一些有趣的評論。但需要認識到的重要一件事是數字錢包，總的來說，包括 PayPal，總體份額一直在增長。在大流行期間，我們的份額增長超過 100 個基點。從那以後我們就一直持有它，但我們繼續從手動卡片輸入中獲得份額。

Manual card entry, say, like 3 years ago was 50% of the market. It's still about 30% of the market today. And there's a lot of share to be taken from that by digital wallets. In addition, a lot of the Buy Now, Pay Later wallets are -- their growth is starting to slow quite meaningfully as they move from growth as their #1 objective to making money as their #1 objective. And if you look at our Buy Now, Pay Later results, we're clearly gaining share in that it grew at 102% Buy Now, Pay Later $7 billion of TPV. So we're taking share from there.

比如說，3 年前，手動卡輸入佔據了 50% 的市場份額。如今，它仍佔市場的 30% 左右。數字錢包可以從中分得很多份額。此外，許多“先買後付”錢包——它們的增長開始顯著放緩，因為它們從將增長作為第一目標轉變為賺錢作為第一目標。如果您查看我們的“立即購買，稍後付款”結果，我們顯然正在獲得份額，因為它以 102% 的“立即購買，稍後付款”的速度增長了 70 億美元的 TPV。所以我們從那里分享。

And if you look across the globe, across the globe, which is how we look at this, you can start with the U.S. And in the U.S., for the year, I think it's clear that we held share, growing at about 5%. And if I look at the fourth quarter, which is we're still digesting, it looks like we gained share in the first part of November coming into the holiday period. It looks like we lost somewhere like 2 to 4 basis points of share during the Cyber 5. And then we held in December. And as I've mentioned, we have accelerated meaningfully in terms of our branded share of checkout coming out of December into January and February.

如果你放眼全球，放眼全球，這就是我們看待這個問題的方式，你可以從美國開始。在美國，我認為很明顯，我們今年佔據了份額，增長率約為 5%。如果我看一下我們仍在消化的第四季度，看起來我們在 11 月上旬進入假期期間獲得了份額。看起來我們在 Cyber 5 期間失去了大約 2 到 4 個基點的份額。然後我們在 12 月舉行。正如我所提到的，從 12 月到 1 月和 2 月，我們在結賬的品牌份額方面取得了有意義的加速。

As we look at this, if you exclude Amazon in the U.S. in the fourth quarter, we held share. Again, all of these things are plus or minus 1 or 2 basis points. If you include Amazon, which had an extra Prime Day in the holidays, we might have lost 1 or 2 basis points. But that is the best view that we have for the U.S. right now.

在我們看來，如果你在第四季度排除美國的亞馬遜，我們持有份額。同樣，所有這些都是正負 1 或 2 個基點。如果你包括亞馬遜，它在假期有一個額外的 Prime Day，我們可能會損失 1 或 2 個基點。但這是我們目前對美國的最佳看法。

What's interesting is when you look at mobile checkout, it's clear that somebody like Apple has some inherent advantages in authentication, exclusive use of the NFC chip. But if you look at where we have implemented our most advanced checkout flows, and as I mentioned in the script, now about 1/3 of our top 100 of our most advanced checkout flows, there, even in mobile, we are gaining share.

有趣的是，當您查看移動結賬時，很明顯像 Apple 這樣的公司在身份驗證、獨家使用 NFC 芯片方面具有一些先天優勢。但是，如果你看看我們在哪裡實施了最先進的結賬流程，正如我在腳本中提到的那樣，現在我們前 100 個最先進的結賬流程中約有 1/3 在那裡，即使在移動領域，我們也正在獲得份額。

So the things that we are working on and deploying are making a big difference in the market. That's why I'm so proud of what the team has done in improving and really going after share of overall checkout with our latest integrations. Maybe we can talk more about that with another question.

因此，我們正在研究和部署的東西正在對市場產生重大影響。這就是為什麼我為團隊在改進和真正追求與我們最新集成的整體結賬份額方面所做的工作感到如此自豪。也許我們可以用另一個問題更多地討論這個問題。

Across the rest of the world, there are some markets like the U.K., where we're holding share. In Q3, we lost a little bit of share. In Q4, Australia, we've been losing share due to Buy Now, Pay Later players in that market, and we're now starting to pull back on that. And across most of the major countries in Europe, we are either holding or gaining quite a bit of share. So as I look across the world, there are some places where we're gaining a lot of share, some places like the U.S. where we're probably holding, in other countries where we're losing a little bit. But overall, steady in terms of our market share. And I really think the product teams and the sales teams have done an incredible job of looking at what we can do to improve our checkout experiences. We obviously have a lot we can still do, but year after year after year, we're either holding or gaining share.

在世界其他地區，有一些市場，如英國，我們在那裡佔有份額。在第三季度，我們失去了一點份額。在澳大利亞第四季度，由於該市場的“先買後付”玩家，我們一直在失去份額，現在我們開始撤回。在歐洲的大多數主要國家，我們要么持有要么獲得相當大的份額。因此，當我環顧全球時，我們在某些地方獲得了很多份額，在某些地方，例如我們可能持有的美國，在其他國家，我們正在失去一些份額。但總的來說，我們的市場份額穩定。我真的認為產品團隊和銷售團隊在研究我們可以做些什麼來改善我們的結賬體驗方面做得非常出色。顯然，我們還有很多事情可以做，但年復一年，我們要么持有要么獲得份額。

Our next question comes from Tien-Tsin Huang from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tien-Tsin Huang。

I'm just curious if your investment in the R&D budget at PayPal has changed given some of the incremental cost savings, the bigger margin expansion. I'm asking because we're really focused on the product road map and the advanced checkout, and it sounds like you're extending unbranded to the SME space, which makes some sense. So just love your latest thinking on balancing the cost savings with investments in product development.

我很好奇，考慮到一些增量成本節省和更大的利潤率擴張，您在 PayPal 的研發預算投資是否發生了變化。我問是因為我們真的專注於產品路線圖和高級結賬，聽起來你正在將無品牌擴展到 SME 空間，這是有道理的。因此，請喜歡您關於平衡成本節約與產品開發投資的最新想法。

Yes. The first thing we do is ensure that we have all the investments we need to drive our road map. Again, we've honed our focus, sharpened our focus to make sure that we are investing and executing against our high conviction growth areas. And we're doing that since -- I mean, we are -- the team is making a ton of progress, I mean, whether you look at what we've done in Braintree to harden the infrastructure, to create additional capabilities over the holiday season during the Cyber 5, we were 5 9s and above in terms of availability. And you see that in terms of kind of the new sales, people moving more volume over to us. Braintree's auth rates were something like 390 basis points better than the competitive set, and so a ton of investment there and making a lot of progress. We've put a lot of investment against PPCP, which is our unbranded, small and midsized and channel partner play.

是的。我們做的第一件事是確保我們擁有推動路線圖所需的所有投資。再一次，我們磨練了我們的重點，加強了我們的重點，以確保我們正在針對我們的高信念增長領域進行投資和執行。我們這樣做是因為 - 我的意思是，我們 - 團隊取得了很大的進步，我的意思是，無論你看看我們在 Braintree 中所做的事情，以加強基礎設施，創造額外的能力在 Cyber 5 假期期間，我們的可用性達到 5 個 9 及以上。你會看到，就新銷售的種類而言，人們將更多的銷量轉移給了我們。 Braintree 的授權率比競爭對手高出大約 390 個基點，因此在那裡進行了大量投資並取得了很大進展。我們對 PPCP 進行了大量投資，這是我們的無品牌、中小型和渠道合作夥伴遊戲。

And by the way, it's not just unbranded. It has our most advanced checkout flows in it, and we're going to probably take about 20% of our TPV through PPCP with integrations through Shopify, Adobe, TikTok, and move that to our most advanced checkout flows. And so that, we've invested in, and obviously, the rest of checkout, right?

順便說一句，它不僅僅是沒有品牌的。它有我們最先進的結賬流程，我們可能會通過 PPCP 獲得大約 20% 的 TPV，並通過 Shopify、Adobe、TikTok 進行集成，並將其轉移到我們最先進的結賬流程中。因此，我們已經投資了，顯然，其餘的結賬，對吧？

Like things like our SDK and APIs, 2 years ago, we were not really playing in that developer market. And today, if you go to Postman, which is like one of the largest sites that developers go to, to look at SDKs and APIs, we're now one of the top 10 requested SDKs and APIs based on both popularity and quality of that. We actually are #7. #8 is Stripe. And so we have really gone from almost nowhere to top 10 in terms of our SDK and APIs. And so -- and just all the basic hygiene, the next-gen stuff, we're working on, that is #1 for us. Like we are going to invest as much as we need to into that. We're going to invest in our digital wallets, our unbranded and our checkout. And that's where we are focused, and we have plenty of investment there.

就像我們的 SDK 和 API 一樣，2 年前，我們並沒有真正參與開發者市場。今天，如果您去 Postman（開發人員訪問的最大網站之一）查看 SDK 和 API，我們現在是最受歡迎和質量方面請求最多的 10 個 SDK 和 API 之一.我們實際上是#7。 #8 是條紋。因此，就我們的 SDK 和 API 而言，我們真的從幾乎一無所有一躍成為前 10 名。所以 - 所有基本的衛生，下一代的東西，我們正在努力，這對我們來說是第一位的。就像我們將在其中投入盡可能多的資金一樣。我們將投資於我們的數字錢包、我們的無品牌和我們的結帳。這就是我們關注的地方，我們在那裡有大量投資。

At the same time, really, if you look at our nontransaction-related OpEx, and you look over the course of 3 years ago, we were like 17% growth, then 20% growth, then 2.7, and now low -- high single-digit negative growth, I guess, is the best way to put it. If you add all that together, we come up to about 7%. And our traditional OpEx growth was somewhere, I call it, 6% to 8% or so. So we've just come back to where we've been.

與此同時，真的，如果你看看我們與非交易相關的運營支出，看看 3 年前的過程，我們增長了 17%，然後增長了 20%，然後是 2.7，現在很低——高單-數字負增長，我想，是最好的表達方式。如果將所有這些加在一起，我們得出大約 7%。我們傳統的 OpEx 增長在某個地方，我稱之為 6% 到 8% 左右。所以我們剛剛回到我們去過的地方。

Honestly, we still have a lot more to go. As I mentioned, we have identified and are executing already against an incremental $600 million. And as we get more and more efficient as a business, you're going to see more and more of a productivity mindset so that we feel, as we go into 2024, that we're going to go back to the same place we were, where we consistently grow our operating margin as we grow our top line going forward.

老實說，我們還有很多工作要做。正如我所提到的，我們已經確定並正在執行增加的 6 億美元。隨著我們的企業效率越來越高，您會看到越來越多的生產力思維方式，因此我們覺得，隨著我們進入 2024 年，我們將回到原來的狀態，隨著我們未來收入的增長，我們的營業利潤率不斷增長。

And we're all aligned against that. We feel great about the amount of resource we're investing but also making sure that we have the right cost structure going forward. Obviously, you're always balancing that. But when we have a balancing decision, we err towards investing.

我們都反對這一點。我們對我們投入的資源數量感到滿意，但也確保我們擁有正確的成本結構。顯然，你總是在平衡這一點。但是，當我們做出平衡決定時，我們就會錯誤地投資。

Got it. And my compliments to you on the succession news as well.

知道了。我也對繼任新聞表示讚賞。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from Jason Kupferberg from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Jason Kupferberg。

Dan, congratulations. I wanted to follow up on engagement. I know it's kind of been a recurring theme on the call. The growth in the payment transactions per active stayed elevated this quarter, 13%. Hoping you can delve into some of the specific drivers, the primary drivers of that and whether you feel it's sustainable in 2023?

丹，恭喜。我想跟進訂婚情況。我知道這是電話會議上反復出現的主題。本季度每個活躍用戶的支付交易增長保持在 13% 的高位。希望您能深入研究一些具體的驅動因素，其中的主要驅動因素以及您是否認為它在 2023 年是可持續的？

Yes. So I think, Jason, one of the things that we talked about, which is kind of a new piece of information for us, is that nearly half of our base is a monthly active user and about 190 million or so. Those monthly active users, without Braintree in the number, because a lot of people are, well, Braintree is in there, without Braintree in the number, use us 6 to 7 times a month. So they're transacting 72 to 90 times a year with us. That is up 40% from 2019. It's up 5% year-over-year. And that -- those characteristics of those MAUs is they have an extremely low churn rate. They are extremely engaged, highly satisfied with high and growing ARPU.

是的。所以我認為，Jason，我們談到的其中一件事，對我們來說是一條新信息，是我們的基數中近一半是每月活躍用戶，大約有 1.9 億左右。那些月度活躍用戶，沒有 Braintree 的數量，因為很多人，嗯，Braintree 在那裡，沒有 Braintree 的數量，每個月使用我們 6 到 7 次。所以他們每年與我們進行 72 到 90 次交易。這比 2019 年增長了 40%。同比增長 5%。而且 - 這些 MAU 的特徵是它們的流失率極低。他們非常投入，對高且不斷增長的 ARPU 非常滿意。

Our biggest opportunity is to move our active accounts into our MAUs. We generate an enormous amount of organic active accounts, enormous. Every single year, they come on to our platform. And they come on to our platform because we're so ubiquitous. We have coverage across 35 million merchant accounts, 80% of the top 1,500 accounts in the U.S. and Europe. And so they come. They make a transaction or they get a P2P request, and they -- and they do kind of a one and done.

我們最大的機會是將我們的活躍賬戶轉移到我們的 MAU 中。我們產生了大量的有機活躍賬戶，數量巨大。每一年，他們都會來到我們的平台。他們來到我們的平台是因為我們無處不在。我們覆蓋了 3500 萬個商戶帳戶，其中 80% 位於美國和歐洲的前 1500 個帳戶中。所以他們來了。他們進行交易或收到 P2P 請求，然後他們 - 他們做了一個並完成了。

And the way that I think about, probably the best analogy between MAUs, monthly active users, and the rest of our accounts, is how the wireless industry thinks about postpaid and prepaid. Our MAUs are our postpaid accounts. Again, they're very satisfied. They have high ARPU, very, very low churn, and they're engaged in our mobile app. They're ready to try new services as we put them on. When we put on a new service, when they try one new service, our ARPU goes up by 25%. And so we are very focused on ensuring that we grow our MAUs and that we take those tremendous organic number of people that are coming on.

我認為，可能是 MAU、每月活躍用戶和我們其他賬戶之間最好的類比，是無線行業如何看待後付費和預付費。我們的 MAU 是我們的後付費帳戶。同樣，他們非常滿意。他們的 ARPU 很高，客戶流失率非常非常低，而且他們正在使用我們的移動應用程序。他們已經準備好在我們推出新服務時嘗試新服務。當我們推出一項新服務時，當他們嘗試一項新服務時，我們的 ARPU 會上升 25%。因此，我們非常專注於確保我們的 MAU 增長，並確保我們吸引了大量的有機人員。

By the way, with no cost per gross add on that, no CPGA. Like those organic things are coming in just constantly at the top of our funnel. It's a bit of a 2-edged sword. One, it kind of -- it adds to churn obviously but churn of a base that's not transacting at all. But our opportunity is with -- as we get a better value proposition, a more compelling proposition across our consumer side, as we upgrade our merchants into the best possible checkout experiences that we take those active accounts and move them into MAUs.

順便說一句，沒有每總增加成本，沒有 CPGA。就像那些有機的東西不斷地出現在我們漏斗的頂部。這有點像一把兩刃的劍。第一，它有點——它顯然增加了流失，但根本沒有交易的基礎流失。但我們的機會在於——隨著我們獲得更好的價值主張，在我們的消費者方面更具吸引力的主張，因為我們將我們的商家升級到最好的結賬體驗，我們將這些活躍賬戶轉移到 MAU 中。

This whole thing about what's happening with your churn, what's happening, that's a false narrative actually. What's really happening is our MAUs are incredibly consistent, staying with us, highly satisfied, acting quite a bit and growing. And that's really where our engagement is coming from. That's probably -- for instance, we have 35 million consumers that use us for subscription management. Every single month, we manage their subscriptions automatically for them, whether they be to Hulu or to other subscription management services. And so those are incredibly sticky high-value customers for us, and we have a ton of focus on moving people to that MAU base, which is why it's such a focus for us as opposed to net active accounts.

這整件事關於你的流失發生了什麼，正在發生什麼，這實際上是一個錯誤的敘述。真正發生的是我們的 MAUs 非常一致，與我們在一起，非常滿意，表現得很好並且不斷增長。這確實是我們參與的來源。這可能是——例如，我們有 3500 萬消費者使用我們進行訂閱管理。每個月，我們都會自動為他們管理訂閱，無論是 Hulu 還是其他訂閱管理服務。因此，這些對我們來說是非常粘的高價值客戶，我們非常關注將人們轉移到那個 MAU 基地，這就是為什麼它對我們來說如此重要，而不是淨活躍賬戶。

Our next question comes from Timothy Chiodo from Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Timothy Chiodo。

I want to drill down a little bit on the core PayPal modern checkout migration progress. The numbers you gave were great, the 20% going to 1/3, going to 50% for [gold] this year with the top 100. Two follow-ups on that. The first is could you talk a little bit about the conversion uplift that you see when the new modern checkout experience is integrated there? And that would help us to kind of quantify what 1/3 going to 50% in could mean?

我想深入了解核心 PayPal 現代結帳遷移進度。你給出的數字很棒，20% 到 1/3，今年前 100 名的 [黃金] 將達到 50%。兩個後續行動。首先是您能否談談當新的現代結賬體驗被整合到那裡時您看到的轉換提升？這將幫助我們量化 1/3 到 50% 可能意味著什麼？

And the second one is can you talk a little bit about and recap the actions that you're taking to help incentivize that. Clearly, it's a win-win for both you and the client. But what are some of the either financial or people resources that you could allocate to help speed things up?

第二個是你能談談並回顧一下你為幫助激勵這一點而採取的行動嗎？顯然，這對您和客戶都是雙贏的。但是，您可以分配哪些財務或人力資源來幫助加快速度？

It's a great set of questions. So when we put in the latest checkout experiences, it's anywhere from a low of a 3% lift in conversion up to a 10% lift in conversion. So that's actually pretty meaningful in terms of what we see. We also see in our latest checkout integrations that we're growing our share there across mobile, across mobile web and desktop.

這是一組很好的問題。因此，當我們採用最新的結賬體驗時，轉化率提升幅度從 3% 到 10% 不等。因此，就我們所看到的而言，這實際上非常有意義。我們還在最新的結賬集成中看到，我們在移動、移動網絡和桌面上的份額正在增加。

And with the top 100, it's an account-by-account play. They have quite sophisticated payments teams. They have a lot of legacy integration. And clearly, the increases in conversion matter a lot and also the ability to seamlessly implement our Buy Now, Pay Later, which has the highest auth rates in the industry, lowest loss rates and a great value proposition is another reason for those top 100 plus to move forward on their integrations. And we're making good solid progress, as I mentioned, every single quarter there.

對於前 100 名，這是一個逐個帳戶的遊戲。他們有相當成熟的支付團隊。他們有很多遺留集成。顯然，轉化率的提高非常重要，而且無縫實施我們的“先買後付”的能力也是進入前 100 強的另一個原因，它具有業內最高的授權率、最低的損失率和巨大的價值主張推進他們的整合。正如我提到的那樣，我們每個季度都取得了良好的進展。

Mobile SDK, same thing. Conversion rates up to 10%. We are now in developer portals. Our mobile SDK is a merchant requirement going forward, so no new merchant can come on without being in our most advanced checkout flows. In our mobile SDK, Buy Now, Pay Later will also be included in that in the second half, which is also something that our merchants are really asking for in terms of seamless integration of that.

移動 SDK，同樣的事情。轉化率高達 10%。我們現在在開發人員門戶中。我們的移動 SDK 是商家未來的需求，因此如果不進入我們最先進的結賬流程，任何新商家都無法加入。在我們的移動端SDK中，Buy Now, Pay Later下半年也會加入其中，這也是我們商家真正要求無縫集成的東西。

And then PPCP, we have Braintree, and that's -- when somebody signs up for Braintree, they immediately go on to our latest checkout experiences. I already talked about auth rates going up 390 basis points on average when that happens. But PPCP, it's a big opportunity for us. We're going into a $750 billion addressable market that we've never been able to go in before. We're going in both with our sales force direct into midsized customers and for that longer tail through channel partners.

然後是 PPCP，我們有 Braintree，那就是 - 當有人註冊 Braintree 時，他們會立即繼續我們最新的結帳體驗。我已經談到當這種情況發生時，授權率平均上升 390 個基點。但是 PPCP，這對我們來說是一個很大的機會。我們將進入一個價值 7500 億美元的潛在市場，這是我們以前從未進入過的。我們將通過我們的銷售人員直接進入中型客戶，並通過渠道合作夥伴進入更長的尾巴。

As I mentioned, we're already working with Shopify on PPCP. In France, we are beginning integrations with merchants like Adobe and TikTok. And we feel that those channel partners, when we upgrade them to PPCP, they almost instantaneously will upgrade that long tail. And that's, call it, 20% of our TPV out there. So we've got quite a bit of plans to address each part of the market with, I think, pretty significant detail around them and pretty significant movement as well.

正如我提到的，我們已經在 PPCP 上與 Shopify 合作。在法國，我們開始與 Adobe 和 TikTok 等商家進行整合。我們覺得那些渠道合作夥伴，當我們將他們升級到 PPCP 時，他們幾乎會立即升級那個長尾巴。那就是我們 TPV 的 20%。因此，我們有相當多的計劃來解決市場的每個部分，我認為，圍繞它們的非常重要的細節和非常重要的動作也是如此。

Excellent. And thank you for giving the numbers on the conversion. Appreciate that.

出色的。並感謝您提供有關轉換的數字。感謝。

Yes, you bet, of course. Okay. I think we have time for one more question.

是的，當然可以。好的。我想我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Our next question will come from David Togut from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

Looking at your plans to reduce transaction margin pressure from Braintree over time by expanding it to more profitable segments, including downmarket to SMBs and PPCP, which you've talked about unbranded full-stack processing with channel partners. Is there anything in your 2023 guidance that contemplates reduced transaction margin pressure from Braintree? And if not, when would you expect some of these initiatives to alleviate that margin pressure?

看看你的計劃，通過將其擴展到更有利可圖的細分市場，包括低端市場到 SMB 和 PPCP，隨著時間的推移減少 Braintree 的交易利潤壓力，你已經與渠道合作夥伴談到了無品牌的全堆棧處理。您的 2023 年指南中是否有任何內容考慮降低 Braintree 的交易保證金壓力？如果沒有，您預計這些舉措何時會緩解利潤壓力？

I'll start off and maybe Gabs can follow up on that. And thank you for the question. So there are a number of high-margin businesses that we add on to Braintree. Braintree itself is a lower-margin business. And by the way, we're serving the highest end of the customers that always have a lower margin structure for us. But a lot of the high-end -- higher-margin businesses that we had into PayPal are things like risk as a service. We'll be introducing FX as a service. Payouts is a higher margin. We're expanding Braintree into both Europe and South America, which are higher margin for us.

我會開始，也許 Gabs 可以跟進。謝謝你的問題。因此，我們將許多高利潤業務添加到 Braintree。 Braintree 本身是一項利潤率較低的業務。順便說一下，我們服務的是最高端的客戶，他們總是對我們有較低的利潤結構。但是我們在 PayPal 中擁有的許多高端——利潤率更高的業務都是風險即服務。我們將引入 FX 即服務。支出是更高的保證金。我們正在將 Braintree 擴展到歐洲和南美，這對我們來說利潤更高。

But -- so we expect to see unbranded, as a whole, that margin structure move up. And then as we go into the small and midsized merchant with unbranded, that obviously is a much higher margin. PPCP is more of a, call it, sort of a mass customization platform. Braintree really is a customized platform because each one of those merchants have unique needs that we need to customize for.

但是 - 所以我們希望看到整體上沒有品牌的利潤率結構上升。然後當我們進入無品牌的中小型商家時，這顯然是一個更高的利潤率。 PPCP 更像是一種大規模定制平台。 Braintree 確實是一個定制平台，因為這些商家中的每一個都有我們需要定制的獨特需求。

Gabs, anything else that you'd add?

Gabs，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. I mean, to Dan's point, the geo mix, the merchant mix and the value-added services layer all are margin enhancing to Braintree overall. I'd also say we've talked about investing in the platform. And a lot of those investments that we're making are really to allow us scale that business more efficiently over time. So each incremental piece of volume will actually cost us less to profit as a process.

是的。我的意思是，在 Dan 看來，地理組合、商家組合和增值服務層都在提高 Braintree 的整體利潤率。我還要說我們已經討論過對該平台的投資。我們正在進行的許多投資實際上是為了讓我們隨著時間的推移更有效地擴展業務。因此，作為一個過程，每個增量的數量實際上都會減少我們的利潤成本。

We're also doing a lot on our own side in terms of how we think about processing as efficiently as possible and doing everything we can to make sure that, over time, we're going to scale those volumes as efficiently as we can. And so I would think about it as a multiyear dynamic in terms of how we think about the progression of Braintree and again, sort of as we move more out of the U.S. down into a slightly smaller merchant set overall, in addition, as we layer on the value-added services and the margin profile really does come through.

在我們如何考慮盡可能高效地處理以及盡我們所能確保隨著時間的推移，我們將盡可能高效地擴展這些卷方面，我們也在自己方面做很多事情。因此，就我們如何看待 Braintree 的進展而言，我認為它是一個多年的動態，有點像我們將更多的人從美國轉移到一個整體上略小的商人集，此外，當我們分層時在增值服務和利潤率方面確實實現了。

Congratulations, Dan.

恭喜你，丹。

Thank you so much. Okay. Well, I think we're a little over the top of the hour. I just want to thank everybody for your great questions. Thank you for all the e-mails that you're sending me already. Again, we're going to work quite closely. We're focused on executing against our plan and look forward to speaking to all of you again soon. Thanks again for your time. Take care. Bye-bye.

太感謝了。好的。好吧，我想我們有點過時了。我只想感謝大家提出的重要問題。感謝您發送給我的所有電子郵件。同樣，我們將密切合作。我們專注於執行我們的計劃，並期待很快再次與大家交談。感謝你的寶貴時間。小心。再見。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。