PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, afternoon, evening. My name is Chris, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the PayPal Holdings Earnings Conference Call for the First Quarter 2022. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Ms. Gabrielle Rabinovitch, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早上好，下午好，晚上好。我的名字是克里斯，今天我將成為您的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加 PayPal Holdings 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議。（操作員說明）我現在想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，企業財務高級副總裁 Gabrielle Rabinovitch 女士和投資者關係。請繼續。

Thank you, Chris. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. Welcome to PayPal's earnings conference call for the first quarter of 2022. Joining me today on the call are Dan Schulman, our President and CEO; and John Rainey, our Chief Financial Officer and EVP, Global Customer Operations. We're providing a slide presentation to accompany our commentary. This conference call is also being webcast, and both the presentation and call are available on our Investor Relations website.

謝謝你，克里斯。下午好，感謝您加入我們。歡迎參加 PayPal 2022 年第一季度的收益電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Dan Schulman；以及我們的首席財務官兼全球客戶運營執行副總裁 John Rainey。我們正在提供幻燈片演示來配合我們的評論。本次電話會議也正在進行網絡直播，我們的投資者關係網站上提供了演示文稿和電話會議。

In discussing our company's performance, we will refer to some non-GAAP measures. You can find the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the presentation accompanying this conference call.

在討論我們公司的業績時，我們將參考一些非公認會計準則指標。您可以在本次電話會議隨附的演示文稿中找到這些非 GAAP 措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的對賬。

Management will make forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations, forecasts and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. These statements include our guidance for the second quarter and full year 2022 and our medium-term outlook. Our actual results may differ materially from these statements. You can find more information about risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our results in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC and available on our Investor Relations website. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. All information in this presentation is as of today's date, April 27, 2022. We expressly disclaim any obligation to update this information.

管理層將根據我們當前的預期、預測和假設做出前瞻性陳述，並涉及風險和不確定性。這些聲明包括我們對 2022 年第二季度和全年的指導以及我們的中期展望。我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述大不相同。您可以在我們最近提交給 SEC 的 10-K 表格年度報告和 10-Q 表格季度報告中找到有關風險、不確定性和其他可能影響我們業績的因素的更多信息，並可在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱。您不應過分依賴任何前瞻性陳述。本演示文稿中的所有信息截止日期為 2022 年 4 月 27 日。我們明確表示不承擔更新此信息的任何義務。

With that, let me turn the call over to Dan.

有了這個，讓我把電話轉給丹。

Thanks, Gabrielle, and thanks, everyone, for joining us. We obviously have a lot to cover today. But before I begin my formal remarks, I want to start by saying how dismayed we are at the atrocities happening in Ukraine. Early on, we suspended our transactional services in Russia and worked quickly to enable PayPal's send and receive services in Ukraine. Since then, our platform has enabled approximately $100 million to be sent to Ukrainian citizens and refugees.

謝謝加布里埃爾，也謝謝大家加入我們。我們今天顯然有很多內容要講。但在我開始正式發言之前，我想先說我們對烏克蘭發生的暴行感到多麼沮喪。早些時候，我們暫停了在俄羅斯的交易服務，並迅速努力在烏克蘭啟用 PayPal 的發送和接收服務。從那時起，我們的平台已經向烏克蘭公民和難民發送了大約 1 億美元。

In addition, thanks to the generosity of our community, nearly $0.5 billion has been sent over our platform to leading nonprofit organizations supporting Ukraine. It is in times like these that we are most reminded of the essential role our platform and services provide to those most in need.

此外，由於我們社區的慷慨捐助，我們的平台已向支持烏克蘭的領先非營利組織發送了近 5 億美元。正是在這樣的時代，我們最容易想起我們的平台和服務為最需要幫助的人提供的重要作用。

This afternoon, in the interest of time, I'm going to briefly cover our first quarter results, before I provide a strategic update and discuss our outlook for the quarter and year ahead. We have provided additional coverage of our Q1 results in our investor update presentation.

今天下午，為了節省時間，我將簡要介紹我們的第一季度業績，然後再提供戰略更新並討論我們對未來季度和一年的展望。我們在投資者更新報告中提供了對第一季度業績的額外報導。

As all of you know, after almost 7 years at PayPal, John Rainey will be leaving the company to join the leadership team at Walmart. I'm happy for John. And I'm not surprised that the Fortune 1 company has recognized all that John has done to help build PayPal into what it is today. John, I'm going to miss you, and I wish you the very best of success and happiness in your next chapter.

眾所周知，在 PayPal 工作了將近 7 年之後，John Rainey 將離開公司，加入沃爾瑪的領導團隊。我為約翰感到高興。對於這家財富第一的公司認可約翰為幫助將 PayPal 打造成今天的樣子所做的一切，我並不感到驚訝。約翰，我會想念你的，我祝你在下一章中取得成功和幸福。

I also want to say that I'm thrilled that the Board has appointed Gabrielle Rabinovitch as Interim CFO. The 3 of us are here together, and we will be handling Q&A as a team.

我還想說，我很高興董事會任命 Gabrielle Rabinovitch 為臨時首席財務官。我們三個人在一起，我們將作為一個團隊處理問答。

I want to begin my prepared remarks by acknowledging that our shareholders expect more from us than our track record over the past several quarters has delivered. And I take full accountability for that. Navigating through the pandemic and an uncertain macroeconomic environment with resulting shifts in consumer behavior has made visibility more challenging. But we need to do better, and you will hear more from us today about delivering on our commitments.

我想首先承認我們的股東對我們的期望超過了我們過去幾個季度的業績記錄。我對此負全部責任。在大流行和不確定的宏觀經濟環境中導航以及由此導致的消費者行為轉變使能見度更具挑戰性。但我們需要做得更好，今天你們將聽到我們更多關於兌現承諾的信息。

Before we talk more about our go-forward focus, let me touch on our Q1 results. I'm pleased to report we delivered solid results that exceeded our guidance on revenue and earnings. The first quarter of 2021 was the strongest in our history, with 31% spot revenue growth and 84% non-GAAP EPS growth. And despite lapping this growth, revenues increased 7% to $6.48 billion and increased 15%, excluding eBay.

在我們更多地談論我們的前進重點之前，讓我先談談我們的第一季度業績。我很高興地報告我們提供了超出我們對收入和收益的指導的可靠結果。 2021 年第一季度是我們歷史上最強勁的季度，即期收入增長 31%，非公認會計準則每股收益增長 84%。儘管超過了這一增長，但收入增長了 7%，達到 64.8 億美元，增長了 15%，不包括 eBay。

U.S. revenues grew 20%, and international revenue decreased 5%. Ex eBay, international revenue grew 5%, which was on top of 47% growth in Q1 last year. Volume-based expenses increased 25% and represent 49% of revenue versus 42% of revenue last year. This uptick of approximately 700 basis points resulted from increased funding costs driven primarily by volume mix and lapping the release of $84 million of credit reserves.

美國收入增長 20%，國際收入下降 5%。前 eBay，國際收入增長 5%，高於去年第一季度 47% 的增長。基於數量的費用增長了 25%，佔收入的 49%，而去年佔收入的 42%。大約 700 個基點的上升是由於融資成本增加，主要是由於數量組合和釋放了 8400 萬美元的信貸儲備。

Nontransaction-related expenses grew 8% in the quarter and represented 30% of revenue, which was flat to last year. Investments in technology and development were offset by leverage in our other nontransaction operating expenses.

本季度非交易相關費用增長 8%，佔收入的 30%，與去年持平。對技術和開發的投資被我們其他非交易運營費用的槓桿作用所抵消。

We delivered non-GAAP EPS of $0.88 in the quarter, absorbing an incremental $0.03 of earnings pressure due to our suspension of transactional services in Russia. We also generated more than $1 billion in free cash flow and returned $1.5 billion in capital to stockholders through share repurchases.

我們在本季度實現了 0.88 美元的非公認會計原則每股收益，由於我們在俄羅斯暫停交易服務而增加了 0.03 美元的盈利壓力。我們還產生了超過 10 億美元的自由現金流，並通過股票回購向股東返還了 15 億美元的資本。

As I shared last quarter, we are increasing our emphasis on incremental engagement across our existing customer base while continuing to add higher-value accounts. In Q1, we added 2.4 million net new active accounts in the quarter, bringing our total active base to 429 million. Our transactions per active account grew 11% to 47.

正如我上個季度分享的那樣，我們正在增加對現有客戶群的增量參與的重視，同時繼續增加更高價值的客戶。在第一季度，我們在本季度新增了 240 萬個淨活躍賬戶，使我們的總活躍基數達到 4.29 億。我們每個活躍賬戶的交易量增長了 11% 至 47 筆。

We continue to be pleased with our Buy Now, Pay Later franchise, which is seeing persistent market share gains. We did $3.6 billion in volume in Q1, up 256%, with over 18 million consumer accounts choosing this funding option since launch. And we are seeing increased merchant penetration and upstream presentment, which will allow us to continue to deliver strong results.

我們繼續對我們的“先買後付”專營權感到滿意，該專營權的市場份額持續增長。我們在第一季度完成了 36 億美元的交易量，增長了 256%，自推出以來有超過 1800 萬個消費者賬戶選擇了這種融資方式。我們看到商家滲透率和上游呈現增加，這將使我們能夠繼續取得強勁的業績。

In Q1, Braintree outperformed again, with volumes growing 61%. This growth comes with the success of key customers like Airbnb, Uber, DoorDash, Live Nation, vineyard vines and TikTok. Importantly, for many of these merchants, we are their exclusive or primary provider of unbranded processing.

在第一季度，Braintree 再次表現出色，銷量增長了 61%。這種增長伴隨著 Airbnb、Uber、DoorDash、Live Nation、vineyard vines 和 TikTok 等主要客戶的成功。重要的是，對於這些商家中的許多人來說，我們是他們的獨家或主要無品牌處理提供商。

In addition, Venmo delivered strong revenue performance in Q1, with growth of approximately 60%. Volume grew 12% to $58 billion, on top of 63% growth a year ago. Venmo now has more than 85 million accounts in the U.S. And our goal in the coming year is to drive more commerce transactions on Venmo while continuing to be a leading P2P platform. We are making progress in driving more Pay with Venmo transactions, business profiles and off-line purchases with the Venmo debit and credit cards.

此外，Venmo 在第一季度實現了強勁的收入表現，增長了約 60%。在一年前增長 63% 的基礎上，交易量增長了 12% 至 580 億美元。 Venmo 現在在美國擁有超過 8500 萬個賬戶。我們來年的目標是在 Venmo 上推動更多的商業交易，同時繼續成為領先的 P2P 平台。我們在推動更多使用 Venmo 交易、業務資料以及使用 Venmo 借記卡和信用卡進行離線購買方面取得了進展。

And our integration plans with Amazon are progressing, with the back half of the year as our current launch time frame. Across both PayPal and Venmo, we are working hard to have our digital wallets at the center of our consumers' daily financial lives. Our redesigned PayPal digital wallet app is now installed by over 50% of our base, and our app users are engaging with more features and driving incremental average revenue per account as a result.

我們與亞馬遜的整合計劃正在取得進展，今年下半年是我們目前的發佈時間框架。在 PayPal 和 Venmo 中，我們都在努力讓我們的數字錢包成為我們消費者日常財務生活的中心。我們重新設計的 PayPal 數字錢包應用程序現在已被超過 50% 的用戶安裝，我們的應用程序用戶正在使用更多功能並因此增加了每個帳戶的平均收入。

Customers who use our digital wallet transact 25% more at checkout than users that are not using the app. And over 70% of our Buy Now, Pay Later users engage through our digital wallet. We have nearly completed the rollout of our savings product, and we will be introducing additional financial services and commerce functionality in the coming quarters.

使用我們數字錢包的客戶在結賬時的交易量比不使用該應用程序的用戶多 25%。我們 70% 以上的“立即購買，以後付款”用戶通過我們的數字錢包進行互動。我們幾乎完成了儲蓄產品的推出，我們將在未來幾個季度推出額外的金融服務和商業功能。

Our digital wallet ARPA is 2x that of a customer who only uses checkout, and the churn rate for digital wallet users is 25% less than the rest of our base. We are focused on increasing adoption of our digital wallet and believe it is one of our most meaningful opportunities to drive growth.

我們的數字錢包 ARPA 是僅使用結賬的客戶的 2 倍，並且數字錢包用戶的流失率比我們的其他用戶低 25%。我們專注於提高數字錢包的採用率，並相信這是我們推動增長的最有意義的機會之一。

In addition, working with partners has been and continues to be an important ingredient to our success. We recently renewed and expanded our strategic partnerships with American Express and Citibank. Our strong and growing relationships with these important partners and others highlight our commitment to offering our customers choice in how they pay by enabling seamless FI integrations into our products and services.

此外，與合作夥伴合作一直是並將繼續成為我們成功的重要因素。我們最近更新並擴大了與美國運通和花旗銀行的戰略合作夥伴關係。我們與這些重要合作夥伴和其他合作夥伴的牢固且不斷增長的關係突顯了我們致力於通過將 FI 無縫集成到我們的產品和服務中來為客戶提供支付方式的選擇。

I would like to now discuss our outlook for Q2 and the year. While we are pleased that we delivered Q1 with a beat on revenue and EPS, 2022 remains another challenging year to forecast. In laying out our 2022 outlook several months ago, we noted that if macro pressures persisted, we would trend towards the lower end of our range. And if we saw structural improvement, it would push us upwards towards the upper bound.

我現在想討論我們對第二季度和今年的展望。雖然我們很高興我們在第一季度的收入和每股收益方面表現出色，但 2022 年仍然是另一個充滿挑戰的預測年。幾個月前，我們在製定 2022 年展望時指出，如果宏觀壓力持續存在，我們將趨向於區間的下限。如果我們看到結構上的改善，它將把我們推向上限。

It is clear that relative to early February, the macro environment has deteriorated. Russia, Ukraine and China are contributing to increased global uncertainty and incremental inflationary and supply chain pressures. And more specific to PayPal, forecasting normalized consumer e-commerce spending, as we come out of the pandemic, is exceedingly complex. As a result, we believe it is prudent to lower our 2022 guidance and reevaluate our medium-term outlook.

很明顯，相對於2月初，宏觀環境已經惡化。俄羅斯、烏克蘭和中國正在加劇全球不確定性以及通脹和供應鏈壓力的增加。更具體地說，對於 PayPal，隨著我們走出大流行，預測正常化的消費者電子商務支出非常複雜。因此，我們認為降低 2022 年的指引並重新評估我們的中期前景是審慎的做法。

For the second quarter, we expect revenue growth of approximately 9% and non-GAAP EPS to be approximately $0.86. We expect a bit more than $200 million of impact from eBay in Q2. And we have tough comps as eBay revenue grew -- as eBay -- ex eBay revenue, excuse me, grew 32% in the second quarter last year. We also had reserve releases of $156 million in Q2 2021, which creates an approximate $0.11 headwind to earnings growth.

對於第二季度，我們預計收入增長約 9%，非公認會計原則每股收益約為 0.86 美元。我們預計 eBay 在第二季度的影響將超過 2 億美元。隨著 eBay 收入的增長——作為 eBay——前 eBay 的收入，對不起，去年第二季度增長了 32%，我們面臨著艱難的競爭。我們還在 2021 年第二季度釋放了 1.56 億美元的儲備金，這對盈利增長造成了大約 0.11 美元的阻力。

For the year, we now expect 11% to 13% revenue growth and non-GAAP EPS to be in the range of $3.81 to $3.93. Ex eBay, this represents revenue growth of approximately 15% to 17%. In addition, at the midpoint of our range, this equates to back-half revenue growth of 15.5%. Our revised EPS guidance reflects the flow-through implications of our revenue expectations and volume mix.

今年，我們現在預計收入增長 11% 至 13%，非 GAAP 每股收益將在 3.81 美元至 3.93 美元之間。前 eBay，這代表收入增長約 15% 至 17%。此外，在我們範圍的中點，這相當於後半收入增長 15.5%。我們修訂後的每股收益指引反映了我們的收入預期和銷量組合的流通影響。

We are now forecasting 10 million net new active accounts for the year. We expect to add positive NNAs to our platform every quarter this year, with Q2 representing the low point.

我們現在預測今年將有 1000 萬個淨新活躍賬戶。我們預計今年每個季度都會向我們的平台添加正 NNA，第二季度代表低點。

I want to share additional context about the work we are doing to increase our operating leverage. Pre-pandemic, we were in the process of simplifying our operating model and enhancing our operating efficiency. The pandemic forced us to put many of those initiatives on hold to simply scale the business and support the unprecedented growth on our platform.

我想分享更多關於我們為提高運營槓桿所做的工作的背景。大流行前，我們正在簡化運營模式並提高運營效率。大流行迫使我們擱置其中許多舉措，以簡單地擴展業務並支持我們平台上前所未有的增長。

We are now coming back to this work with renewed focus, energy and purpose. While we are focused on incorporating more discipline into our operating model and driving operating leverage in our business, we are simultaneously investing to grow. We see opportunities to accelerate our growth and customer engagement. We believe our portfolio of digital payment assets is unmatched in breadth and depth, which creates a powerful competitive advantage for us.

我們現在帶著新的焦點、精力和目標回到這項工作。雖然我們專注於將更多的紀律納入我們的運營模式並提高我們業務的運營槓桿，但我們同時也在投資以實現增長。我們看到了加速增長和客戶參與的機會。我們相信我們的數字支付資產組合在廣度和深度上都無與倫比，這為我們創造了強大的競爭優勢。

To extend this advantage and advance our leadership position, our focus on streamlining and improving the way we work is critical and will allow us to achieve more efficient growth. Overall, these efforts will yield significant savings, allowing us to continue to reinvest in the business and drive profitable growth.

為了擴大這一優勢並提升我們的領導地位，我們對簡化和改進工作方式的關注至關重要，這將使我們能夠實現更有效的增長。總體而言，這些努力將節省大量資金，使我們能夠繼續對業務進行再投資並推動盈利增長。

For the year, we now expect to generate more than $5 billion in free cash flow. In addition, we still plan to balance capital allocation between investing organically in our business, share repurchase and inorganic growth. That said, to be clear, transformative acquisitions are not on our growth agenda at this time. We currently expect that any activity for the foreseeable future will be focused on straightforward deals that have clear and unassailable alignment with our skills and capabilities.

今年，我們現在預計將產生超過 50 億美元的自由現金流。此外，我們仍計劃在有機投資業務、股票回購和無機增長之間平衡資本配置。也就是說，需要明確的是，變革性收購目前不在我們的增長議程上。我們目前預計，在可預見的未來，任何活動都將集中在與我們的技能和能力有明確且無懈可擊的直接交易上。

Finally, I would like to discuss our medium-term outlook that was provided at our Investor Day in February of 2021. We have reassessed the feasibility of achieving our revenue and earnings targets. These targets relied on several baseline assumptions, relating to both e-commerce penetration and macroeconomic factors that are no longer on the trajectory that we forecasted.

最後，我想討論一下我們在 2021 年 2 月投資者日提供的中期展望。我們重新評估了實現收入和盈利目標的可行性。這些目標依賴於幾個基線假設，這些假設與電子商務滲透率和宏觀經濟因素有關，這些因素不再符合我們預測的軌跡。

As a result, we're withdrawing our medium-term outlook. We will continue to guide revenue and earnings on both a quarter and full year basis and continue to update you on how we are thinking about our business over the long term.

因此，我們正在撤回我們的中期展望。我們將繼續指導季度和全年的收入和收益，並繼續向您通報我們對長期業務的看法。

Make no mistake, we have strong conviction in the growth potential of our business and our ability to sustainably create value for our shareholders. However, we recognize the need to level-set expectations in what remains a dynamic environment. We know the scale of our 2-sided platform is truly differentiated and gives us strong competitive advantage. We believe the secular tailwinds from the digitization of payments and e-commerce growth are persistent. And we believe that we are uniquely positioned to bring more merchants and consumers together globally than any other company and help them connect and transact safely.

毫無疑問，我們堅信我們業務的增長潛力以及我們為股東持續創造價值的能力。然而，我們認識到需要在仍然充滿活力的環境中設定預期水平。我們知道我們的雙面平台的規模是真正差異化的，並為我們提供了強大的競爭優勢。我們認為，支付數字化和電子商務增長帶來的長期順風將持續存在。我們相信，與其他任何公司相比，我們具有獨特的優勢，可以將全球更多的商家和消費者聚集在一起，並幫助他們安全地連接和交易。

We continue to have many opportunities in front of us, given the scale of our 2-sided network and the ongoing growth in digitized payments. We will advance our leadership in checkout, continue our work to become the preeminent digital wallet and bring PayPal's tools to more in-person context, all the while investing in our foundational technologies.

鑑於我們雙邊網絡的規模和數字化支付的持續增長，我們仍然有很多機會擺在我們面前。我們將提升我們在結賬方面的領導地位，繼續努力成為卓越的數字錢包，並將 PayPal 的工具帶入更多的親身環境，同時投資於我們的基礎技術。

Hundreds of millions of consumers and tens of millions of merchants value our comprehensive set of products and services. And we are investing resources to both improve our existing products and innovate for the future with capabilities, including enhanced loyalty programs, package tracking and returns management.

數以億計的消費者和數以千萬計的商家重視我們全面的產品和服務。我們正在投入資源來改進我們現有的產品，並通過增強忠誠度計劃、包裹跟踪和退貨管理等功能為未來進行創新。

With branded checkout and full-stack processing as the foundational elements of our platform and competitive advantage, the opportunities ahead are significant. And we believe PayPal is well positioned to play a leading role in driving the future of digital payments and commerce.

憑藉品牌結賬和全棧處理作為我們平台和競爭優勢的基本要素，未來的機會是巨大的。我們相信 PayPal 完全有能力在推動數字支付和商業的未來方面發揮主導作用。

We believe we will continue to grow revenue faster than the rate of e-commerce growth and increase our market share in digital payments. At the same time, we will continue to focus on improving operating leverage to support sustained value creation, accelerating the velocity of getting product into the hands of our customers and driving greater organizational effectiveness by simplifying processes and increasing accountability.

我們相信，我們的收入增長速度將繼續超過電子商務的增長速度，並增加我們在數字支付領域的市場份額。與此同時，我們將繼續專注於提高運營槓桿以支持持續的價值創造，加快將產品交付客戶手中的速度，並通過簡化流程和增加問責制來提高組織效率。

We look forward to sharing our progress with you as the year unfolds. And with that, let me turn the call back to the operator for your questions.

隨著這一年的到來，我們期待與您分享我們的進步。有了這個，讓我把電話轉回接線員來問你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Lisa Ellis of MoffettNathanson.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 MoffettNathanson 的 Lisa Ellis。

And good to hear your voices. John, we will miss you, of course. Dan, this one's for you, maybe just building on how you just closed the formal remarks. Reflecting back on the challenges over these past 6 to 8 months, what, in your view, are the top 3 or 4 things that PayPal really needs to do differently going forward to turn around the trajectory of the business?

很高興聽到你的聲音。約翰，我們當然會想念你的。丹，這個是給你的，也許只是建立在你剛剛結束正式發言的基礎上。回顧過去 6 到 8 個月的挑戰，您認為 PayPal 未來真正需要採取不同的方式來扭轉業務發展軌蹟的前 3 或 4 件事是什麼？

Yes. It's good to hear your voice as well, Lisa. I feel the same way about John. So look, it's been a difficult several quarters for us in accurately forecasting on what our business would look like. I will say that, over the past 5 years, we very consistently gained market share as true also in Q1, if you look across the different products and capabilities we offer. And so I think we need to, one, kind of rethink, and we've tried to start to do this year, our philosophy and methodology around forecasting. And we'll talk probably about that later. I'm sure there will be conversations about that.

是的。也很高興聽到你的聲音，麗莎。我對約翰也有同樣的感覺。所以看，對我們來說，準確預測我們的業務會是什麼樣子是困難的幾個季度。我想說的是，在過去的 5 年中，如果您查看我們提供的不同產品和功能，我們在第一季度也始終如一地獲得市場份額。所以我認為我們需要，一種，重新思考，我們已經嘗試從今年開始，我們圍繞預測的哲學和方法論。我們稍後可能會談到這一點。我相信會有關於這個的對話。

Second, I think there are less things we need to do extremely well. And so we are really going to be focusing on checkout, and we can talk about that in more detail later in the call, but we have a number of initiatives on advancing our position in checkout and also thinking about next-generation checkout as well.

其次，我認為我們需要做得非常好的事情更少。所以我們真的會專注於結賬，我們可以在電話會議的後面更詳細地討論這個問題，但我們有許多舉措來提升我們在結賬方面的地位，同時也在考慮下一代結賬。

And we also need to double-down on the digital wallet. We clearly believe that's where the future of the industry is going. It's the future of PayPal. It is the heart of what we are trying to do from an engagement perspective. And so those are the 2 things that we really need to double-down on.

我們還需要在數字錢包上加倍努力。我們清楚地相信，這就是該行業的未來發展方向。這是貝寶的未來。從參與的角度來看，這是我們嘗試做的事情的核心。所以這些是我們真正需要加倍努力的兩件事。

I would say the third thing is we need to go back to where we were before we came into the pandemic, with a real focus on our operating model, making sure we simplify and streamline, putting more and more accountability into the hands of our product managers and driving really end-to-end accountability and ownership across the whole business.

我想說的第三件事是，我們需要回到大流行之前的狀態，真正關注我們的運營模式，確保我們簡化和精簡，將越來越多的責任交給我們的產品管理人員並在整個業務中推動真正的端到端問責制和所有權。

And so there are clearly a lot of things we need to do. I feel like we're beginning to make good progress on some of the execution. Q1 was a piece of that and some of the metrics are -- we're seeing green shoots on that. But we've just got to stay focused and keep driving simplification and operating leverage in our model.

因此，顯然我們需要做很多事情。我覺得我們開始在一些執行方面取得良好進展。第一季度就是其中的一部分，其中一些指標是——我們看到了這方面的萌芽。但我們必須保持專注，繼續推動我們模型的簡化和運營槓桿。

Your next question comes from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang of JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tien-Tsin Huang。

And may I also start by saying thank you to John and absolutely wish you nothing but the best. I'll ask on the outlook. I know Lisa asked a good question on what's going to change, but I'm just trying to better understand the full year vision to revenue and EPS and where you're landing now versus 90 days ago. So it looks like the eBay assumption is the same.

我也可以首先對約翰說聲謝謝，並絕對祝你一切順利。我會問前景。我知道麗莎問了一個關於將會發生什麼變化的好問題，但我只是想更好地了解全年收入和每股收益的願景，以及你現在與 90 天前相比的目標。所以看起來 eBay 的假設是一樣的。

So how much of the change is due to macro factors versus maybe you know a little bit more about the impacts of your strategy shift? And of course, how much did conservatism play a role, recognizing, as you said, visibility is tough and you have a CFO seat to fill, et cetera?

那麼有多少變化是由於宏觀因素造成的，而不是您對戰略轉變的影響了解得更多？當然，保守主義在多大程度上發揮了作用，正如你所說，認識到知名度很難，你有一個首席財務官的席位要填補，等等？

Sure, Tien-Tsin. I'll start. And let me first say thank you for your comments. And I think Gabrielle will probably jump in on this as well. But I'll give a little bit of color to the way that we're thinking about guidance. And so you'll recall, and Dan also referred to this in his prepared remarks, that at the last quarter, when we gave a revenue range of 15% to 17%, we very clearly said if things did not improve, we would be at the low end of that range.

當然，天真。我會開始的。首先讓我感謝您的評論。我認為 Gabrielle 也可能會參與其中。但我會給我們考慮指導的方式一點色彩。所以你會記得，丹在他準備好的講話中也提到了這一點，在上個季度，當我們給出 15% 到 17% 的收入範圍時，我們非常明確地說，如果情況沒有改善，我們將在該範圍的低端。

And that's a different approach to the guidance that we have today, insofar as we are actually assuming that things get a little worse from here. It's been challenging forecasting sort of the return or the normalization of e-commerce trends post-pandemic. And we've been chasing this for a little bit, and we don't want to continue to find ourselves in that situation.

這是與我們今天的指導不同的方法，因為我們實際上假設事情從這裡開始變得更糟。大流行後電子商務趨勢的回歸或正常化的預測一直具有挑戰性。我們一直在追求這一點，我們不想繼續陷入這種情況。

So if you sort of contrast where we are today with when we gave that guidance, not only have things not improved, I think very clearly, they've gotten worse. We've got a war that's broken out in Ukraine. We've seen more supply chain issues that are acute in places like China. You've got even higher inflation now, which is, I think, disproportionately affecting our customer base that skews more towards discretionary spend versus nondiscretionary spend. All of these things affect the way that we're approaching the outlook for the year.

因此，如果您將我們今天的情況與我們提供指導時的情況進行對比，不僅情況沒有改善，而且我認為非常清楚，情況變得更糟了。我們在烏克蘭爆發了一場戰爭。在中國等地，我們看到了更多嚴重的供應鏈問題。你現在的通貨膨脹率更高，我認為，這不成比例地影響了我們的客戶群，更傾向於可自由支配的支出而不是非可自由支配的支出。所有這些事情都會影響我們接近今年前景的方式。

Gabrielle, do you want to add anything?

加布里埃爾，你想補充什麼嗎？

Yes, sure. Thanks, John. So Tien-Tsin, in terms of sort of lowering the revenue outlook, in addition to what John mentioned around just the macro worsening and what that means for our overall growth expectations in our core markets, we also, to John's point, sort of took a look at what we're seeing on our own platform. And that really relates to sort of e-commerce and consumer behavior. It does have that sort of macro intersection, but for us, because we have more of a discretionary platform, we do see a greater impact on the spend.

是的，當然。謝謝，約翰。因此，Tien-Tsin 在降低收入前景方面，除了約翰提到的宏觀惡化以及這對我們核心市場的整體增長預期意味著什麼之外，在約翰看來，我們也採取了看看我們在自己的平台上看到的內容。這確實與電子商務和消費者行為有關。它確實有那種宏觀交集，但對我們來說，因為我們有更多的自由裁量平台，我們確實看到了對支出的更大影響。

And so relative to how we started the year, e-commerce globally is slower than what we thought, and we're seeing that come through on our platform. And so we're reflecting that, and that's both in terms of just the spending patterns as well as off-line/online mix. So that's sort of how we're thinking about starting the year. It's really not about our overall conviction in the secular tailwinds that support the business, but we want to be realistic about what we're seeing in-year and adjust that outlook for that.

因此，相對於我們今年年初的方式，全球電子商務比我們想像的要慢，我們在我們的平台上看到了這一點。因此，我們正在反映這一點，這既包括支出模式，也包括離線/在線組合。所以這就是我們在考慮如何開始新的一年。這真的不是我們對支持業務的長期順風的整體信念，而是我們希望對我們在一年中看到的情況保持現實，並為此調整前景。

The final contributor to it on the revenue side is really that we've recalibrated our expectations on some of our initiatives at PayPal based upon those lower global growth expectations. And so we wanted to have a consistency in that conservatism around what we think are sort of newer initiatives can deliver in-year given some of those macro impacts.

收入方面的最終貢獻者確實是，我們已經根據全球增長預期較低，重新調整了我們對 PayPal 的一些舉措的預期。因此，鑑於某些宏觀影響，我們希望圍繞我們認為可以在一年內交付的新舉措保持保守主義的一致性。

On the EPS side, it's really a flow-through of some of these things, but maybe just something I would call out is from a volume standpoint. We are seeing outsized performance from Braintree. So that unbranded processing mix does play a role in the overall profitability of the business. And so we're taking down EPS, in part, for that.

在 EPS 方面，它實際上是其中一些東西的流通，但也許我要說的是從數量的角度來看。我們看到 Braintree 的出色表現。因此，這種無品牌的加工組合確實在企業的整體盈利能力中發揮了作用。因此，我們部分地為此取消了每股收益。

In addition to that, we're continuing to invest heavily in the areas that we think are important to drive that long-term profitable growth. And so that's what you're seeing sort of in terms of the overall impact to EPS. One other call-out would just be suspending transaction services in Russia does have an EPS impact as well, and so we have adjusted our outlook for that.

除此之外，我們將繼續在我們認為對推動長期盈利增長很重要的領域進行大量投資。這就是你所看到的對 EPS 的整體影響。另一項呼籲只是暫停俄羅斯的交易服務也確實會對每股收益產生影響，因此我們已經調整了我們的前景。

Your next question comes from the line of Darrin Peller of Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Darrin Peller。

John, I also want to wish you the best. And guys, when we look at -- yes, when we look at the guidance that you guys gave, and I know you withdrew the medium term, which I think a lot of investors expected at this point, but the exit year, if you could just help us understand the cadence of the year and then the exit growth rate implied by the new guide range and maybe a little more on the assumptions behind that exit rate.

約翰，我也祝你一切順利。伙計們，當我們看到 - 是的，當我們看到你們提供的指導時，我知道你們撤回了中期，我認為很多投資者在這一點上都預期，但退出年份，如果你可以幫助我們了解今年的節奏，然後了解新指導範圍所暗示的退出增長率，也許更多地了解退出率背後的假設。

Yes. Sure, Darrin. I'll start off there and then see if Gabs or John want to add to it. So as I said in my remarks, what the back half implies with our 11% to 13% is a 15.5% revenue growth in the back half, so mid-teens, in general, with that. And then as we think about EPS, there are a number of onetime events on our EPS growth rates. But when we think about kind of like what is an exit as we go into next year, just kind of on a normalized basis, it's probably in the mid-teens as well.

是的。當然，達林。我將從那裡開始，然後看看 Gabs 或 John 是否想要添加它。因此，正如我在講話中所說，後半部分意味著我們 11% 到 13% 的後半部分收入增長了 15.5%，因此一般來說是十幾歲左右。然後當我們考慮每股收益時，我們的每股收益增長率有許多一次性事件。但是，當我們考慮到明年什麼是退出時，只是在正常化的基礎上，它可能也在十幾歲左右。

And as we think about the medium term, the thing that I talked about in my script is that we've had a long track record of taking share and growing faster than e-commerce. And so as you're thinking about kind of what does that medium term look like, it really depends on your view of kind of where e-commerce is going to come out.

當我們考慮中期時，我在劇本中談到的事情是，我們在份額和增長速度超過電子商務方面有著悠久的記錄。因此，當您在考慮中期是什麼樣子時，這實際上取決於您對電子商務將在何處出現的看法。

We'll take a look, but there are a lot of shifting estimates right now, as John mentioned, coming out of the pandemic, now coming into a high inflation kind of a macroeconomic environment that's uncertain. And the magnitude of that uncertainty is wider. We felt it was best to characterize kind of what the company expects to do over the medium term as opposed to put out any specific numbers.

我們來看看，但正如約翰所說，現在有很多變化的估計，從大流行中走出來，現在進入一種不確定的宏觀經濟環境的高通脹。而且這種不確定性的程度更大。我們認為最好描述公司期望在中期做什麼，而不是公佈任何具體數字。

I'll just add too, Darrin, that, look, no company wants to be in the position of pulling their medium-term guidance. But when you step back and you look at the set of assumptions on which we base that medium-term guidance, they're very, very different today. That said, and perhaps I'm in a unique position to say this, that doesn't take away our conviction and the long-term value and the prospects for this business at all.

我還要補充一點，達林，看，沒有公司願意取消他們的中期指導。但是，當您退後一步，看看我們作為中期指導依據的一系列假設時，今天它們已經非常非常不同了。話雖如此，也許我處於一個獨特的位置，這並不能完全消除我們的信念以及這項業務的長期價值和前景。

This -- there are a few companies of our size and scale in digital payments that have some of the unique attributes that we have around our cash flow generation, our revenue growth and the margin profile that we do. And so we're not immune to some of these economic vagaries that we're going through right now. But we've got to respond to that.

這——在數字支付領域，有幾家像我們這樣規模和規模的公司，在我們的現金流生成、收入增長和利潤率方面具有我們所擁有的一些獨特屬性。因此，我們不能倖免於我們目前正在經歷的一些經濟變幻莫測。但我們必須對此作出回應。

And -- but that should not take away from how you think about our business longer-term. And again, we are perhaps the purest play in digital payments, and we're going to continue to invest appropriately to make sure that we stay that way and stay a leader in digital payments going forward.

而且 - 但這不應影響您對我們業務的長期看法。再說一次，我們可能是數字支付領域最純粹的公司，我們將繼續進行適當的投資，以確保我們保持這種狀態並在未來保持數字支付的領導者地位。

Yes. And if I can just jump on top of John's points. Like at some point, these trends tend to turn as well, but when that happens is unclear. And so we know, as long as we continue to invest, to seize those growth opportunities, to ensure that our growth remains in excess of that of e-commerce, when these things do change, we'll be beneficiaries of that as well. So we just want to be heads down, focused on the things we control and execute really well against them.

是的。如果我能跳到約翰的觀點之上。就像在某些時候一樣，這些趨勢也會發生轉變，但何時發生還不清楚。所以我們知道，只要我們繼續投資，抓住這些增長機會，確保我們的增長仍然超過電子商務，當這些事情發生變化時，我們也將成為受益者。所以我們只想低頭，專注於我們控制的事情，並且對他們執行得非常好。

Your next question comes from the line of Ramsey El-Assal of Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊的 Ramsey El-Assal。

I wonder if you could give us an update on the kind of pivot to focusing more on customer engagement versus acquisition. And I guess, specifically, do you have all the tools that you need now to sort of execute on this shift? Is there more development or M&A or incremental technology or resources that you're going to need to dedicate to the new strategy? Or are you kind of set where you are now to make it happen?

我想知道您是否可以向我們提供有關更多關注客戶參與與獲取的樞軸的最新信息。我想，具體來說，您是否擁有在這種轉變中執行所需的所有工具？您是否需要更多的開發或併購或增量技術或資源來致力於新戰略？或者你是不是已經確定了你現在的位置來實現它？

Yes. It's at such a fast-moving environment that we operate in, with constant innovation, that we're never in a place where we're not going to need to continue to innovate and invest in the business. I think we've made some really important strides in the past year or so with the advent of our digital wallet. We clearly think that the world is continuing to digitize. Yes, there's some normalization between online and off-line right now. But going forward, the world continues to digitize.

是的。我們所處的環境瞬息萬變，不斷創新，我們永遠不會處於不需要繼續創新和投資業務的地方。我認為隨著數字錢包的出現，我們在過去一年左右取得了一些非常重要的進展。我們清楚地認為，世界正在繼續數字化。是的，現在在線和離線之間有一些正常化。但展望未來，世界繼續數字化。

And disparate parts of the economy are coming together, whether that be shopping, payments, basic financial services. And so the wallet is going to be one of the key elements of how we drive customer engagement. And we're going to continue to evolve the wallet. It is v 1.0 right now. And there's going to be v 2.0 and v 3.0, and we've got a number of things on our road map that we really want to execute against this year. But we're already beginning to see uptick in our engagement.

經濟的不同部分正在融合在一起，無論是購物、支付還是基本金融服務。因此，錢包將成為我們推動客戶參與的關鍵要素之一。我們將繼續發展錢包。現在是 v 1.0。將會有 v 2.0 和 v 3.0，我們的路線圖上有很多我們今年真正想要執行的東西。但我們已經開始看到我們的參與度有所上升。

For the second quarter in a row, we had 11% TPA. Ex eBay, actually, engagement went up 19% in the quarter. That's a pretty big move in terms of engagement. And you heard the stats that I talked about in my script in terms of the increases in ARPA, the decreases in churn. And as you think about kind of our growth going forward, 30% of our customers generate 80% of the volume on our platform.

連續第二個季度，我們的 TPA 為 11%。實際上，前 eBay 的參與度在本季度增長了 19%。就參與度而言，這是一個相當大的舉措。你聽到了我在腳本中談到的關於 ARPA 增加和流失率減少的統計數據。當您考慮我們未來的增長時，我們 30% 的客戶在我們的平台上產生了 80% 的交易量。

We're clearly not a subscription business, we're a transaction-based business. And growing those transactions is a huge opportunity for us. We probably, today, have like 25% of the online financial transactions that a consumer does. And so there's a ton of room for us to grow in that area.

我們顯然不是訂閱業務，我們是基於交易的業務。增加這些交易對我們來說是一個巨大的機會。今天，我們可能擁有消費者進行的在線金融交易的 25%。因此，我們在該領域有很大的發展空間。

I would also say the surest way for us to grow net new actives going forward is to increase engagement. Like when you're at 429 million active accounts, even with a consistent churn rate year-over-year, and by the way, we know, this year, our churn rate will be somewhat higher because we're letting these low engaged consumers churn off the platform because the ROI to keep them isn't worth it. But the more we can keep people on the platform engaged, the more we'll grow our NNAs going forward.

我還要說，我們未來增加淨新活躍用戶的最可靠方法是增加參與度。就像當您擁有 4.29 億活躍賬戶時，即使流失率同比保持一致，順便說一下，我們知道，今年我們的流失率會更高一些，因為我們讓這些低參與度的消費者放棄平台，因為保留它們的投資回報率不值得。但是，我們越能讓平台上的人們參與進來，我們的 NNA 就越能向前發展。

And so the 2 big things we're focused on, improving checkout, improving digital wallet, are the things that we'll probably be talking about for years to come actually. Anything you would add?

因此，我們關注的兩件大事，改進結賬，改進數字錢包，實際上是我們可能會在未來幾年談論的事情。你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Jason Kupferberg。

I wanted to shift over to Venmo for a minute, if I could. I know that volume growth started the year at 12%. Clearly, there was a tough comp there. I'm just wondering whether or not any of the new IRS rules around reporting of these transactions is having any impact there, how you expect Venmo volume growth to evolve during the course of the year. I know you started really strong on the revenue side, with Venmo at 60% in Q1. So fair to assume you still expect 50%-plus revenue growth from Venmo this year?

如果可以的話，我想轉移到文莫一分鐘。我知道今年年初的銷量增長為 12%。顯然，那裡有一場艱難的比賽。我只是想知道有關報告這些交易的任何新 IRS 規則是否會對那裡產生任何影響，您預計 Venmo 交易量增長將如何在一年中發展。我知道你在收入方面一開始非常強勁，第一季度 Venmo 為 60%。這麼公平地假設你仍然預計今年 Venmo 的收入增長 50% 以上？

Yes, Jason, I think we continue to expect the 50% revenue growth for Venmo this year. To your question on sort of the IRS change, I would say, very early in the year, we did see some impact from that. We've worked a ton on customer comprehension and education. So we think that's basically behind us, just in terms of what the impact could be.

是的，傑森，我認為我們繼續預計今年 Venmo 的收入將增長 50%。對於你關於 IRS 變化的問題，我想說，在今年早些時候，我們確實看到了一些影響。我們在客戶理解和教育方面做了很多工作。所以我們認為這基本上已經過去了，就影響可能產生的影響而言。

But we also are up against really tough comps. And so last year's Q1 was 63% growth for Venmo, this year, 12%. The business has scaled to the point that it's actually meaningfully larger than what our U.S. business was coming out of separation. And so at this point, we continue to expect strong growth, but it's going to be a mix of commerce volumes and revenue as well as the P2P piece. Dan, anything to add?

但我們也面臨著非常艱難的比賽。因此，去年第一季度 Venmo 增長了 63%，今年增長了 12%。該業務的規模已經擴大到實際上比我們的美國業務從分離中出來的規模要大得多。因此，在這一點上，我們繼續期待強勁的增長，但這將是商業量和收入以及 P2P 部分的混合。丹，有什麼要補充的嗎？

I would just say they've got a strong road map ahead of them, putting in business profiles, transitioning that almost into storefronts, enabling charities to be a part -- listed on Venmo, the full debit card refreshed, revamping P2P, even improving searchability and other things around that. So they've got a -- and then, of course, launching Amazon in the back half of the year. So they've got a pretty full road map. And I think Gab summarized all the other points perfectly.

我只想說他們前面有一個強大的路線圖，放入業務檔案，幾乎將其轉變為店面，使慈善機構成為其中的一部分——在 Venmo 上上市，更新完整的借記卡，改造 P2P，甚至改進可搜索性和其他相關內容。所以他們有一個 - 然後，當然，在今年下半年推出亞馬遜。所以他們有一個非常完整的路線圖。我認為 Gab 完美地總結了所有其他觀點。

Your next question comes from Bryan Keane with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Bryan Keane。

I wanted to ask about TPV. When I look at total payment volume in the quarter, I see the dichotomy between U.S. growth, up 21%, and international, only up 5%. So clearly, international is growing slower than the U.S. So wondering, when I look at the international market, what are some of the factors there that are influencing the growth rates. Is it inflation? Is the Ukraine situation bleeding into other parts of Europe? Is there any share loss? Any color on that would be great.

我想問一下冠捷。當我查看本季度的總支付量時，我看到美國增長 21% 和國際僅增長 5% 之間的二分法。很明顯，國際市場的增長速度比美國慢。所以想知道，當我看國際市場時，影響增長率的因素有哪些。是通貨膨脹嗎？烏克蘭局勢是否正在蔓延到歐洲其他地區？有沒有股份虧損？上面的任何顏色都會很棒。

Yes, sure. Thanks for the question, Bryan. I think the 2 main drivers really are, in first instance, actually very challenging comps. We're up against very, very tough comps from last year. So Q1 of last year, international revenue growth, 38% in the quarter, and it was 47% ex eBay. So that alone is sort of one of the drivers this year. The other big piece really is the eBay component. And so that too is playing a role. So on the revenue side, international revenue growth, ex eBay, was up 5%, relative to the negative side that you see.

是的，當然。謝謝你的問題，布萊恩。首先，我認為這兩個主要驅動因素實際上是非常具有挑戰性的組合。從去年開始，我們就面臨著非常非常艱難的比賽。因此，去年第一季度，國際收入增長了 38%，而 eBay 前為 47%。因此，僅此一項就是今年的驅動因素之一。另一個重要的部分確實是 eBay 組件。所以這也發揮了作用。因此，在收入方面，國際收入增長（例如 eBay）相對於您看到的負面影響增長了 5%。

Probably also worth highlighting, that China and U.K. continue to be tough markets for us, and that is both the eBay migration, but it really is also the macro. And so that's one where we're watching it really closely. We did see sort of China revenue down more than it was in Q4., U.K. revenue down again more than it was in Q4, and so we'll continue to watch it closely, but that definitely does have a macro layer to it.

可能還值得強調的是，中國和英國對我們來說仍然是艱難的市場，這既是 eBay 的遷移，也是宏觀的。這就是我們正在密切關注的地方。我們確實看到中國的收入下降幅度超過了第四季度，英國收入的下降幅度再次超過了第四季度，因此我們將繼續密切關注，但這肯定有宏觀層面的影響。

Got it. And good luck, John.

知道了。祝你好運，約翰。

Thanks, Bryan.

謝謝，布萊恩。

Your next question comes from Mike Ng of Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Mike Ng。

I would like to ask about competition. Specifically, there have been some high-profile challenges reported for startups in the one-click checkout space. Could you talk a little bit about some of the benefits of PayPal's scale that may create barriers to entry among new entrants and where you're most focused as it relates to competition, if not necessarily new competitors?

我想問一下競爭。具體來說，一鍵結賬領域的初創公司面臨著一些備受矚目的挑戰。您能否談談 PayPal 規模的一些好處，這些好處可能會在新進入者之間設置進入壁壘，以及您最關注與競爭相關的領域，如果不一定是新競爭對手的話？

Yes. Well, as you point out, look, checkout is our business. I mean you've got to be able to scale it. And it's got to be perfect. As you noted, retailers depend completely on a checkout provider. And if it doesn't go right, they can lose a tremendous amount of sales.

是的。好吧，正如您所指出的，看，結帳是我們的業務。我的意思是你必須能夠擴展它。它必須是完美的。正如您所指出的，零售商完全依賴於結賬提供商。如果進展不順利，他們可能會損失大量銷售額。

And so like the brand trust we have and our track record over time, our availability, our fraud and risk capabilities, have been honed over the last 10 or 15 years. Like on average, a retailer that does 100 transactions with PayPal, we approve 6 more than somebody else -- another checkout methodology. These make huge differences.

因此，就像我們擁有的品牌信任和隨著時間的推移我們的業績記錄一樣，我們的可用性、欺詐和風險能力在過去 10 或 15 年中得到了磨練。就像平均而言，使用 PayPal 進行 100 筆交易的零售商，我們批准的交易比其他人多 6 筆——另一種結賬方法。這些產生了巨大的差異。

I would say, the other thing, of course, is that it is a network effects business. The larger the scale, the more attractive the network is. And when you do consumer surveys, 60% of consumers pick PayPal as their #1 choice to do an online transaction. The next closest digital wallet is 8%. So it's not even close. PayPal customers are 2x more likely to shop when they see a PayPal button.

我想說，另一件事當然是它是一項網絡效應業務。規模越大，網絡越有吸引力。當您進行消費者調查時，60% 的消費者選擇 PayPal 作為他們進行在線交易的第一選擇。下一個最接近的數字錢包是 8%。所以它甚至不接近。當 PayPal 客戶看到 PayPal 按鈕時，他們購物的可能性是 2 倍。

And for smaller merchants, having the PayPal brand is essential because in today's age, you're seeing much more e-commerce sales that are outside of local territories. It's across state. It's across the country. It's across countries. And seeing that PayPal brand enables the consumer to feel confident that they've got protection and for a business to feel comfortable because we give them seller protections as well.

對於較小的商家來說，擁有 PayPal 品牌是必不可少的，因為在當今時代，您會看到更多的電子商務銷售是在本地區域之外進行的。是跨州的。它遍布全國。它跨越國家。並且看到 PayPal 品牌讓消費者對他們得到保護感到自信，並使企業感到舒適，因為我們也為他們提供賣家保護。

And so we have a ton of scale advantages and a ton of experience in high auth rates and low loss rates, which typically don't work hand in hand, but they do work that way with us. And look, we are not resting on any of those laurels by any stretch of imagination. We are driving to improve basic hygiene, increased uptime and availability at 99.999% level, taking latency down to low single-digit seconds, simplifying our UX right now.

因此，我們在高認證率和低丟失率方面擁有大量的規模優勢和豐富的經驗，這些通常不能同時發揮作用，但它們確實與我們合作。看，我們不會因為任何想像而滿足於這些桂冠。我們正在努力改善基本衛生，將正常運行時間和可用性提高到 99.999% 的水平，將延遲降低到低個位數秒，現在簡化我們的用戶體驗。

Too often, there's a pop-up that occurs, and it takes you out of the web or the native app. And you don't want to go out and then back into that app. So we want to drive in-context or in-line checkout. We know we can even make our integrations easier and simpler by moving more and more towards industry standard integrations. And we're going to optimize log-on through new identity techniques.

經常會出現一個彈出窗口，它會將您帶出 Web 或本機應用程序。而且你不想出去然後回到那個應用程序。因此，我們希望推動上下文或在線結賬。我們知道，我們甚至可以通過越來越多地轉向行業標準集成來使我們的集成變得更容易和更簡單。我們將通過新的身份技術優化登錄。

And by the way, we are also thinking about the next generation of checkout. The real issue for retailers is not so much can you make conversion better when a consumer gets to the product page or the checkout page, which, by the way, is important because every little bit actually matters to merchants, and we clearly lead in that area.

順便說一句，我們也在考慮下一代結賬。零售商的真正問題不是當消費者進入產品頁面或結帳頁面時，您能否提高轉化率，順便說一句，這很重要，因為每一點對商家來說實際上都很重要，我們顯然在這方面處於領先地位區域。

But the real issue is less than 5 out of 100 people who go to a merchant's website actually check out. So there's a ton of drop-off before a consumer gets to the product pages or to the checkout. And basically, nobody has the amount of data and information we have on customers.

但真正的問題是，在訪問商家網站的 100 人中，只有不到 5 人真正結賬。因此，在消費者進入產品頁面或結賬之前，會有大量的下車。基本上，沒有人擁有我們擁有的關於客戶的大量數據和信息。

We vault over 1 billion financial instruments on our platform, well more than that. And being able to work with retailers and consumers, to surface who that consumer is, obviously with consent and all of that, so that a retailer can customize kind of to every customer coming on that have offers or deals or with a homepage they come to is a huge potential next-generation of checkout with a lot of interest from merchants. And nobody can really do that better than we can because of our scale and the data we have.

我們在我們的平台上保管超過 10 億種金融工具，遠不止這些。並且能夠與零售商和消費者合作，顯露消費者是誰，顯然是在同意和所有這些的情況下，這樣零售商就可以為每一個有優惠或交易的顧客或他們來到的主頁定制種類是具有巨大潛力的下一代結賬方式，引起了商家的極大興趣。由於我們的規模和我們擁有的數據，沒有人能比我們做得更好。

And so I think we got a lot of good advantages right now, but we are really thinking about how do we take it to the next level and how do we even reimagine checkout.

所以我認為我們現在有很多很好的優勢，但我們真的在考慮如何將其提升到一個新的水平，以及我們如何重新構想結賬。

We have time for one last question from David Togut of Evercore.

我們有時間回答 Evercore 的 David Togut 的最後一個問題。

All the best to you, John.

祝你一切順利，約翰。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

At the beginning of the pandemic, Dan, you clearly articulated a focus on unified commerce, in particular, a major rollout of QR codes at some of the biggest retailers in the country. And more recently, we've seen consumers return to the physical point-of-sale with increased vaccination rates. Can you update us on how PayPal is positioned in unified commerce, and in particular, where you stand with the QR code rollout?

在大流行開始時，丹，你清楚地表達了對統一商務的關注，特別是在該國一些最大的零售商中大規模推出二維碼。最近，我們看到消費者隨著疫苗接種率的提高重返實體銷售點。您能否向我們介紹一下 PayPal 在統一商務中的定位，特別是您在 QR 碼推出方面的立場？

Yes. Well, I think we said from the very beginning, it's proving to be very true, that in-person payments is going to be -- it's going to be a long shot for us going forward. There's no magic word to that. We are continuing to increase, every quarter, the number of retailers that offer our QR codes.

是的。好吧，我想我們從一開始就說過，事實證明這是非常正確的，親自付款將會——這對我們未來的發展來說是一個很長的路要走。沒有什麼神奇的詞。我們每個季度都在繼續增加提供我們二維碼的零售商的數量。

But changing consumer behavior to move to mobile and mobile checkout, it's going to take time. It clearly will happen over time, but it's going to take time. And so our view on this is that we really feel like putting quite a large emphasis on revamping our debit and credit card to tie in fully with our app, but enabling a consumer to shop seamlessly. If it's in-store, they want to use a form factor they're familiar with, they can do that. But it ties completely into the app, fully integrated, a little like the Venmo credit card is into the Venmo app.

但要改變消費者行為以轉向移動和移動結賬，這需要時間。這顯然會隨著時間的推移而發生，但這需要時間。因此，我們對此的看法是，我們真的覺得非常重視改進我們的借記卡和信用卡以與我們的應用程序完全配合，同時讓消費者能夠無縫購物。如果它在店內，他們想使用他們熟悉的外形，他們可以做到。但它完全與應用程序聯繫在一起，完全集成，有點像 Venmo 信用卡與 Venmo 應用程序。

We just launched this 3-2 card, 3% cash-back on any purchase on PayPal, 2% everywhere else, but it is a fully integrated experience. And so, for instance, what might you be able to do with that. You might be able to go into a store, pay with your 3-2 card and then come into the app and do a Buy Now, Pay Later type of thing.

我們剛剛推出了這張 3-2 卡，在 PayPal 上的任何購買都有 3% 的現金返還，在其他任何地方都是 2%，但它是一種完全集成的體驗。因此，例如，您可以用它做什麼。您也許可以進入商店，使用您的 3-2 卡付款，然後進入應用程序並執行“立即購買，以後付款”類型的操作。

So flexibility on choice of how you pay, not just doing it instantaneously. You may want to split that way of paying for that through rewards points and fiat currency. And this, tying in of both using the mobile phone at point-of-sale, but also enabling people to use cards and tie that directly into our app, I think, is probably a good 1-2 punch as we think about moving into in-store.

因此，您可以靈活選擇付款方式，而不僅僅是即時付款。您可能希望通過獎勵積分和法定貨幣來拆分支付方式。我認為，在銷售點同時使用手機，同時讓人們能夠使用卡片並將其直接綁定到我們的應用程序中，這可能是一個很好的 1-2 拳，因為我們考慮進入有存貨。

Clearly, Buy Now, Pay Later is exploding everywhere. And we are really gaining good traction there, good traction on upstream presentment, and more and more people want to use that. And that plays, by the way, right into our advantages as well because we have 10 years of credit experience. We think we have the lowest loss rates of the Buy Now, Pay Later industry, probably the highest approval rates because we know so many of the customers and a really powerful value proposition to merchants. And now, we can tie that both online and off-line, and that can be a pretty powerful combination.

顯然，“立即購買，以後付款”正在到處爆發。而且我們確實在那裡獲得了很好的牽引力，對上游呈現的良好牽引力，越來越多的人想要使用它。順便說一句，這也發揮了我們的優勢，因為我們有 10 年的信貸經驗。我們認為我們擁有“立即購買，以後付款”行業中最低的損失率，可能是最高的批准率，因為我們了解如此多的客戶以及對商家的真正強大的價值主張。而現在，我們可以將在線和離線兩者結合起來，這是一個非常強大的組合。

All right. Well, thank you, everybody, for joining us. And John, we -- you heard it from everybody, but you'll hear it from us how much we will miss you as well. And...

好的。嗯，謝謝大家加入我們。約翰，我們 - 你從每個人那裡都聽到了，但你會從我們那裡聽到我們會多麼想念你。和...

Thank you. I will miss you all as well, too.

謝謝你。我也會想念你們的。

Yes. And we look forward to working with you, I'm sure, the projection, as well. Okay, everybody. Thanks very much for your time, and we look forward to talking to you soon. Take care. Bye-bye.

是的。我們期待與您合作，我敢肯定，投影也是如此。好的，大家。非常感謝您抽出寶貴時間，我們期待盡快與您交談。小心。再見。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。