PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, afternoon, evening. My name is Chris, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the PayPal Holdings Earnings Conference Call for the First Quarter 2022. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Ms. Gabrielle Rabinovitch, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

各位早安、午安、晚安。我叫 Chris，今天將擔任本次會議的電話會議主持人。此刻，我謹代表主辦方歡迎各位參加 PayPal Holdings 2022 年第一季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）現在我想介紹今天電話會議的主持人：企業財務與投資人關係資深副總裁 Gabrielle Rabinovitch 女士。請開始。

Thank you, Chris. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. Welcome to PayPal's earnings conference call for the first quarter of 2022. Joining me today on the call are Dan Schulman, our President and CEO; and John Rainey, our Chief Financial Officer and EVP, Global Customer Operations. We're providing a slide presentation to accompany our commentary. This conference call is also being webcast, and both the presentation and call are available on our Investor Relations website.

謝謝你，Chris。各位午安，感謝各位加入我們。歡迎參加 PayPal 2022 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：我們的總裁暨執行長 Dan Schulman，以及我們的財務長兼全球客戶營運執行副總裁 John Rainey。我們提供投影片簡報以搭配我們的說明。本次電話會議亦同步網路直播，簡報與電話會議內容皆可於我們的投資人關係網站取得。

In discussing our company's performance, we will refer to some non-GAAP measures. You can find the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the presentation accompanying this conference call.

在討論本公司表現時，我們將提及部分非 GAAP 指標。您可在本次電話會議隨附之簡報中，找到這些非 GAAP 指標與最直接可比之 GAAP 指標的調節表。

Management will make forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations, forecasts and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. These statements include our guidance for the second quarter and full year 2022 and our medium-term outlook. Our actual results may differ materially from these statements. You can find more information about risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our results in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC and available on our Investor Relations website. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. All information in this presentation is as of today's date, April 27, 2022. We expressly disclaim any obligation to update this information.

管理層將發表前瞻性陳述，該等陳述係基於我們目前的預期、預測與假設，並涉及風險與不確定性。這些陳述包括我們對 2022 年第二季與全年之指引，以及我們的中期展望。我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述存在重大差異。關於可能影響我們結果之風險、不確定性及其他因素的更多資訊，請參閱我們最近向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交之 Form 10-K 年度報告與 Form 10-Q 季度報告，並可於我們的投資人關係網站取得。您不應過度依賴任何前瞻性陳述。本簡報中所有資訊截至今日（2022 年 4 月 27 日）。我們明確聲明不承擔更新此等資訊之任何義務。

With that, let me turn the call over to Dan.

接下來，我把電話交給 Dan。

Thanks, Gabrielle, and thanks, everyone, for joining us. We obviously have a lot to cover today. But before I begin my formal remarks, I want to start by saying how dismayed we are at the atrocities happening in Ukraine. Early on, we suspended our transactional services in Russia and worked quickly to enable PayPal's send and receive services in Ukraine. Since then, our platform has enabled approximately $100 million to be sent to Ukrainian citizens and refugees.

謝謝你，Gabrielle，也謝謝各位加入我們。今天顯然有很多內容要談。不過在我開始正式發言之前，我想先表示，我們對烏克蘭正在發生的暴行深感震驚。早期我們已暫停在俄羅斯的交易服務，並迅速在烏克蘭啟用 PayPal 的收付款服務。自那以來，我們的平台已促成約 1 億美元匯至烏克蘭公民與難民。

In addition, thanks to the generosity of our community, nearly $0.5 billion has been sent over our platform to leading nonprofit organizations supporting Ukraine. It is in times like these that we are most reminded of the essential role our platform and services provide to those most in need.

此外，感謝我們社群的慷慨，透過我們的平台已向支持烏克蘭的主要非營利組織匯出近 5 億美元。正是在這樣的時刻，我們更深刻體會到，我們的平台與服務對最需要幫助的人所扮演的關鍵角色。

This afternoon, in the interest of time, I'm going to briefly cover our first quarter results, before I provide a strategic update and discuss our outlook for the quarter and year ahead. We have provided additional coverage of our Q1 results in our investor update presentation.

今天下午，為了節省時間，我將先簡要說明第一季業績，接著提供策略更新並討論我們對未來一季與全年之展望。我們已在投資人更新簡報中，對第一季業績提供更多說明。

As all of you know, after almost 7 years at PayPal, John Rainey will be leaving the company to join the leadership team at Walmart. I'm happy for John. And I'm not surprised that the Fortune 1 company has recognized all that John has done to help build PayPal into what it is today. John, I'm going to miss you, and I wish you the very best of success and happiness in your next chapter.

各位都知道，在 PayPal 任職將近 7 年後，John Rainey 將離開公司，加入 Walmart 的領導團隊。我為 John 感到高興。我也不意外這家《財富》世界 1 號公司看見了 John 為協助打造今日 PayPal 所做的一切。John，我會想念你，並祝福你在下一段旅程中一切成功、幸福。

I also want to say that I'm thrilled that the Board has appointed Gabrielle Rabinovitch as Interim CFO. The 3 of us are here together, and we will be handling Q&A as a team.

我也想說，我非常高興董事會已任命 Gabrielle Rabinovitch 擔任代理財務長。我們三位今天都在，並將以團隊方式共同進行問答。

I want to begin my prepared remarks by acknowledging that our shareholders expect more from us than our track record over the past several quarters has delivered. And I take full accountability for that. Navigating through the pandemic and an uncertain macroeconomic environment with resulting shifts in consumer behavior has made visibility more challenging. But we need to do better, and you will hear more from us today about delivering on our commitments.

我想先在事先準備的發言中承認：我們的股東期待我們能有更好的表現，而過去幾季的成績未能達到我們一貫的紀錄。我對此負起全部責任。在疫情與不確定的總體經濟環境下，消費者行為出現變化，使得能見度更具挑戰。但我們必須做得更好，今天各位也會聽到我們將如何兌現承諾。

Before we talk more about our go-forward focus, let me touch on our Q1 results. I'm pleased to report we delivered solid results that exceeded our guidance on revenue and earnings. The first quarter of 2021 was the strongest in our history, with 31% spot revenue growth and 84% non-GAAP EPS growth. And despite lapping this growth, revenues increased 7% to $6.48 billion and increased 15%, excluding eBay.

在進一步談我們未來的重點之前，我先簡要說明第一季業績。我很高興報告，我們交出穩健成果，營收與獲利皆超越我們的指引。2021 年第一季是我們史上最強的一季，當季即期營收成長 31%，非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）成長 84%。儘管面臨如此高基期，營收仍成長 7% 至 64.8 億美元；若排除 eBay，營收成長 15%。

U.S. revenues grew 20%, and international revenue decreased 5%. Ex eBay, international revenue grew 5%, which was on top of 47% growth in Q1 last year. Volume-based expenses increased 25% and represent 49% of revenue versus 42% of revenue last year. This uptick of approximately 700 basis points resulted from increased funding costs driven primarily by volume mix and lapping the release of $84 million of credit reserves.

美國營收成長 20%，國際營收下降 5%。若排除 eBay，國際營收成長 5%，而這是在去年第一季成長 47% 的基礎之上。與交易量相關的費用增加 25%，占營收比重為 49%，高於去年同期的 42%。約 700 個基點的上升，主要來自由交易量組合所驅動的資金成本上升，以及去年同期釋放 8,400 萬美元信用準備金的高基期影響。

Nontransaction-related expenses grew 8% in the quarter and represented 30% of revenue, which was flat to last year. Investments in technology and development were offset by leverage in our other nontransaction operating expenses.

本季非交易相關費用成長 8%，占營收比重為 30%，與去年持平。對技術與研發的投資，部分被其他非交易營運費用的規模效益所抵銷。

We delivered non-GAAP EPS of $0.88 in the quarter, absorbing an incremental $0.03 of earnings pressure due to our suspension of transactional services in Russia. We also generated more than $1 billion in free cash flow and returned $1.5 billion in capital to stockholders through share repurchases.

本季非 GAAP 每股盈餘為 0.88 美元，其中吸收了因暫停在俄羅斯的交易服務而帶來的額外 0.03 美元獲利壓力。我們亦產生超過 10 億美元的自由現金流，並透過庫藏股回購向股東返還 15 億美元資本。

As I shared last quarter, we are increasing our emphasis on incremental engagement across our existing customer base while continuing to add higher-value accounts. In Q1, we added 2.4 million net new active accounts in the quarter, bringing our total active base to 429 million. Our transactions per active account grew 11% to 47.

如同我在上一季分享的，我們正提高對既有客戶基礎之增量互動的重視，同時持續新增更高價值的帳戶。第一季我們新增 240 萬個淨新增活躍帳戶，使活躍帳戶總數達到 4.29 億。每位活躍帳戶的交易次數成長 11% 至 47 次。

We continue to be pleased with our Buy Now, Pay Later franchise, which is seeing persistent market share gains. We did $3.6 billion in volume in Q1, up 256%, with over 18 million consumer accounts choosing this funding option since launch. And we are seeing increased merchant penetration and upstream presentment, which will allow us to continue to deliver strong results.

我們持續對「先買後付」（Buy Now, Pay Later）業務感到滿意，該業務持續取得市占率提升。第一季交易量達 36 億美元，年增 256%，自推出以來已有超過 1,800 萬個消費者帳戶選擇此資金選項。我們也看到商戶滲透率提升與更上游的呈現（upstream presentment），這將使我們能持續交出強勁成果。

In Q1, Braintree outperformed again, with volumes growing 61%. This growth comes with the success of key customers like Airbnb, Uber, DoorDash, Live Nation, vineyard vines and TikTok. Importantly, for many of these merchants, we are their exclusive or primary provider of unbranded processing.

第一季 Braintree 再度表現超越預期，交易量成長 61%。此成長來自 Airbnb、Uber、DoorDash、Live Nation、vineyard vines 與 TikTok 等關鍵客戶的成功。重要的是，對其中許多商戶而言，我們是其無品牌（unbranded）處理服務的獨家或主要供應商。

In addition, Venmo delivered strong revenue performance in Q1, with growth of approximately 60%. Volume grew 12% to $58 billion, on top of 63% growth a year ago. Venmo now has more than 85 million accounts in the U.S. And our goal in the coming year is to drive more commerce transactions on Venmo while continuing to be a leading P2P platform. We are making progress in driving more Pay with Venmo transactions, business profiles and off-line purchases with the Venmo debit and credit cards.

此外，Venmo 在第一季也交出強勁的營收表現，成長約 60%。交易量成長 12% 至 580 億美元，而去年同期已成長 63%。Venmo 目前在美國擁有超過 8,500 萬個帳戶。我們未來一年的目標是在持續作為領先 P2P 平台的同時，推動更多 Venmo 上的商務交易。我們在推動更多「使用 Venmo 付款」（Pay with Venmo）交易、商家檔案（business profiles），以及透過 Venmo 簽帳卡與信用卡的線下消費方面正取得進展。

And our integration plans with Amazon are progressing, with the back half of the year as our current launch time frame. Across both PayPal and Venmo, we are working hard to have our digital wallets at the center of our consumers' daily financial lives. Our redesigned PayPal digital wallet app is now installed by over 50% of our base, and our app users are engaging with more features and driving incremental average revenue per account as a result.

我們與 Amazon 的整合計畫也在推進中，目前的上線時程規劃在今年下半年。無論是 PayPal 或 Venmo，我們都在努力讓數位錢包成為消費者日常金融生活的核心。我們重新設計的 PayPal 數位錢包 App 目前已被超過 50% 的用戶基礎安裝，而 App 使用者也正使用更多功能，並因此帶動每戶平均營收（ARPA）的增量提升。

Customers who use our digital wallet transact 25% more at checkout than users that are not using the app. And over 70% of our Buy Now, Pay Later users engage through our digital wallet. We have nearly completed the rollout of our savings product, and we will be introducing additional financial services and commerce functionality in the coming quarters.

使用我們數位錢包的客戶，在結帳時的交易次數比未使用 App 的用戶多 25%。此外，超過 70% 的「先買後付」用戶是透過我們的數位錢包進行互動。我們幾乎已完成儲蓄產品的全面推出，並將在未來幾季推出更多金融服務與商務功能。

Our digital wallet ARPA is 2x that of a customer who only uses checkout, and the churn rate for digital wallet users is 25% less than the rest of our base. We are focused on increasing adoption of our digital wallet and believe it is one of our most meaningful opportunities to drive growth.

數位錢包用戶的 ARPA 是僅使用結帳功能客戶的 2 倍，而數位錢包用戶的流失率也比其他用戶基礎低 25%。我們專注於提升數位錢包的採用率，並相信這是我們推動成長最具意義的機會之一。

In addition, working with partners has been and continues to be an important ingredient to our success. We recently renewed and expanded our strategic partnerships with American Express and Citibank. Our strong and growing relationships with these important partners and others highlight our commitment to offering our customers choice in how they pay by enabling seamless FI integrations into our products and services.

此外，與合作夥伴合作一直是、並將持續是我們成功的重要要素。我們近期續約並擴大了與美國運通（American Express）及花旗銀行（Citibank）的策略合作夥伴關係。我們與這些重要夥伴及其他夥伴之間強健且持續成長的關係，凸顯我們致力於為客戶提供付款方式選擇的承諾，透過將金融機構（FI）的整合無縫導入我們的產品與服務。

I would like to now discuss our outlook for Q2 and the year. While we are pleased that we delivered Q1 with a beat on revenue and EPS, 2022 remains another challenging year to forecast. In laying out our 2022 outlook several months ago, we noted that if macro pressures persisted, we would trend towards the lower end of our range. And if we saw structural improvement, it would push us upwards towards the upper bound.

我現在想討論我們對第二季（Q2）以及全年的展望。雖然我們很高興第一季（Q1）在營收與每股盈餘（EPS）方面均優於預期，但 2022 年仍是另一個難以預測的年度。在數月前提出 2022 年展望時，我們指出若總體壓力持續，我們將趨向區間的下緣；若看到結構性改善，則會推動我們朝向區間上緣。

It is clear that relative to early February, the macro environment has deteriorated. Russia, Ukraine and China are contributing to increased global uncertainty and incremental inflationary and supply chain pressures. And more specific to PayPal, forecasting normalized consumer e-commerce spending, as we come out of the pandemic, is exceedingly complex. As a result, we believe it is prudent to lower our 2022 guidance and reevaluate our medium-term outlook.

很明顯，相較於 2 月初，總體環境已惡化。俄羅斯、烏克蘭與中國正加劇全球不確定性，並帶來額外的通膨與供應鏈壓力。就 PayPal 而言，隨著我們走出疫情，要預測常態化的消費者電商支出極其複雜。因此，我們認為下調 2022 年指引並重新評估我們的中期展望是審慎之舉。

For the second quarter, we expect revenue growth of approximately 9% and non-GAAP EPS to be approximately $0.86. We expect a bit more than $200 million of impact from eBay in Q2. And we have tough comps as eBay revenue grew -- as eBay -- ex eBay revenue, excuse me, grew 32% in the second quarter last year. We also had reserve releases of $156 million in Q2 2021, which creates an approximate $0.11 headwind to earnings growth.

就第二季而言，我們預期營收成長約 9%，非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）約為 0.86 美元。我們預期第二季來自 eBay 的影響略高於 2 億美元。此外，我們面臨艱難的比較基期，因為去年第二季（扣除 eBay 的營收，抱歉，我是說扣除 eBay 的營收）成長了 32%。我們在 2021 年第二季也有 1.56 億美元的準備金回沖（reserve releases），這對獲利成長造成約 0.11 美元的逆風。

For the year, we now expect 11% to 13% revenue growth and non-GAAP EPS to be in the range of $3.81 to $3.93. Ex eBay, this represents revenue growth of approximately 15% to 17%. In addition, at the midpoint of our range, this equates to back-half revenue growth of 15.5%. Our revised EPS guidance reflects the flow-through implications of our revenue expectations and volume mix.

就全年而言，我們目前預期營收成長 11% 至 13%，非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）介於 3.81 至 3.93 美元。若扣除 eBay，這相當於營收成長約 15% 至 17%。此外，以我們區間中點計算，這相當於下半年營收成長 15.5%。我們修訂後的 EPS 指引反映了我們對營收預期與交易量組合（volume mix）所帶來的流入（flow-through）影響。

We are now forecasting 10 million net new active accounts for the year. We expect to add positive NNAs to our platform every quarter this year, with Q2 representing the low point.

我們目前預測全年淨新增活躍帳戶（NNA）為 1,000 萬。我們預期今年每一季平台都會新增正向的 NNA，其中第二季將是低點。

I want to share additional context about the work we are doing to increase our operating leverage. Pre-pandemic, we were in the process of simplifying our operating model and enhancing our operating efficiency. The pandemic forced us to put many of those initiatives on hold to simply scale the business and support the unprecedented growth on our platform.

我想補充一些背景，說明我們正在進行哪些工作以提升營運槓桿。疫情前，我們正著手簡化營運模式並提升營運效率。疫情迫使我們暫停許多這些計畫，轉而專注於擴大業務規模並支援平台前所未有的成長。

We are now coming back to this work with renewed focus, energy and purpose. While we are focused on incorporating more discipline into our operating model and driving operating leverage in our business, we are simultaneously investing to grow. We see opportunities to accelerate our growth and customer engagement. We believe our portfolio of digital payment assets is unmatched in breadth and depth, which creates a powerful competitive advantage for us.

我們現在以更聚焦的態度、能量與使命感回到這項工作。當我們致力於在營運模式中導入更多紀律並推動營運槓桿的同時，我們也同步投資以促進成長。我們看到加速成長與提升客戶互動的機會。我們相信，我們的數位支付資產組合在廣度與深度上無可匹敵，這為我們創造了強大的競爭優勢。

To extend this advantage and advance our leadership position, our focus on streamlining and improving the way we work is critical and will allow us to achieve more efficient growth. Overall, these efforts will yield significant savings, allowing us to continue to reinvest in the business and drive profitable growth.

為了延伸這項優勢並推進我們的領導地位，我們對精簡並改善工作方式的聚焦至關重要，並將使我們能以更高效率實現成長。整體而言，這些努力將帶來可觀的節省，使我們能持續再投資於業務並推動獲利性成長。

For the year, we now expect to generate more than $5 billion in free cash flow. In addition, we still plan to balance capital allocation between investing organically in our business, share repurchase and inorganic growth. That said, to be clear, transformative acquisitions are not on our growth agenda at this time. We currently expect that any activity for the foreseeable future will be focused on straightforward deals that have clear and unassailable alignment with our skills and capabilities.

就全年而言，我們目前預期將產生超過 50 億美元的自由現金流。此外，我們仍計畫在資本配置上取得平衡，包括對業務的有機投資、股票回購以及非有機成長。不過，為了說清楚，目前具變革性的併購並不在我們的成長議程上。我們目前預期在可預見的未來，任何相關活動都將聚焦於較為直接的交易，且必須與我們的技能與能力具備清晰且無可爭辯的一致性。

Finally, I would like to discuss our medium-term outlook that was provided at our Investor Day in February of 2021. We have reassessed the feasibility of achieving our revenue and earnings targets. These targets relied on several baseline assumptions, relating to both e-commerce penetration and macroeconomic factors that are no longer on the trajectory that we forecasted.

最後，我想談談我們在 2021 年 2 月投資人日所提供的中期展望。我們已重新評估達成營收與獲利目標的可行性。這些目標仰賴若干基準假設，涵蓋電商滲透率與總體經濟因素，但這些因素已不再沿著我們當時預測的軌跡發展。

As a result, we're withdrawing our medium-term outlook. We will continue to guide revenue and earnings on both a quarter and full year basis and continue to update you on how we are thinking about our business over the long term.

因此，我們將撤回中期展望。我們將持續以季度與全年為基礎提供營收與獲利指引，並持續向各位更新我們對長期業務發展的思考。

Make no mistake, we have strong conviction in the growth potential of our business and our ability to sustainably create value for our shareholders. However, we recognize the need to level-set expectations in what remains a dynamic environment. We know the scale of our 2-sided platform is truly differentiated and gives us strong competitive advantage. We believe the secular tailwinds from the digitization of payments and e-commerce growth are persistent. And we believe that we are uniquely positioned to bring more merchants and consumers together globally than any other company and help them connect and transact safely.

毋庸置疑，我們對業務的成長潛力以及為股東持續創造價值的能力抱持強烈信心。然而，我們也認知到在仍然動態變化的環境中，有必要重新校準市場預期。我們知道，我們的雙邊平台規模確實具差異化，並賦予我們強大的競爭優勢。我們相信，支付數位化與電商成長所帶來的長期結構性順風將持續存在。我們也相信，我們具備獨特優勢，能在全球範圍內比任何其他公司更有效地連結更多商家與消費者，並協助他們安全地連結與交易。

We continue to have many opportunities in front of us, given the scale of our 2-sided network and the ongoing growth in digitized payments. We will advance our leadership in checkout, continue our work to become the preeminent digital wallet and bring PayPal's tools to more in-person context, all the while investing in our foundational technologies.

鑑於我們雙邊網路的規模以及數位化支付的持續成長，我們面前仍有許多機會。我們將推進在結帳（checkout）領域的領導地位，持續努力成為首屈一指的數位錢包，並將 PayPal 的工具帶入更多線下情境，同時持續投資於我們的基礎技術。

Hundreds of millions of consumers and tens of millions of merchants value our comprehensive set of products and services. And we are investing resources to both improve our existing products and innovate for the future with capabilities, including enhanced loyalty programs, package tracking and returns management.

數以億計的消費者與數以千萬計的商家重視我們全面的產品與服務組合。我們也正在投入資源，一方面改善既有產品，另一方面以多項能力為未來創新，包括強化的忠誠度計畫、包裹追蹤以及退貨管理。

With branded checkout and full-stack processing as the foundational elements of our platform and competitive advantage, the opportunities ahead are significant. And we believe PayPal is well positioned to play a leading role in driving the future of digital payments and commerce.

以品牌結帳（branded checkout）與全棧式處理（full-stack processing）作為我們平台與競爭優勢的基礎要素，未來的機會相當可觀。我們相信 PayPal 已具備良好定位，能在推動數位支付與商務的未來中扮演領導角色。

We believe we will continue to grow revenue faster than the rate of e-commerce growth and increase our market share in digital payments. At the same time, we will continue to focus on improving operating leverage to support sustained value creation, accelerating the velocity of getting product into the hands of our customers and driving greater organizational effectiveness by simplifying processes and increasing accountability.

我們相信，我們將持續以高於電商成長率的速度成長營收，並提升在數位支付領域的市占率。同時，我們將持續聚焦於改善營運槓桿，以支持持續的價值創造，加快將產品交付到客戶手中的速度，並透過簡化流程與提升問責來推動更高的組織效能。

We look forward to sharing our progress with you as the year unfolds. And with that, let me turn the call back to the operator for your questions.

我們期待在今年進展的過程中與各位分享我們的成果。接下來，我把電話交回給接線員，開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Lisa Ellis of MoffettNathanson.

（接線員指示）您的第一個問題來自 MoffettNathanson 的 Lisa Ellis。

And good to hear your voices. John, we will miss you, of course. Dan, this one's for you, maybe just building on how you just closed the formal remarks. Reflecting back on the challenges over these past 6 to 8 months, what, in your view, are the top 3 or 4 things that PayPal really needs to do differently going forward to turn around the trajectory of the business?

很高興聽到你們的聲音。John，我們當然會想念你。Dan，這題想請教你，或許延續你剛才結束正式發言的內容。回顧過去 6 到 8 個月的挑戰，依你看，PayPal 接下來為了扭轉業務走勢，最需要做出不同改變的前 3 或 4 件事是什麼？

Yes. It's good to hear your voice as well, Lisa. I feel the same way about John. So look, it's been a difficult several quarters for us in accurately forecasting on what our business would look like. I will say that, over the past 5 years, we very consistently gained market share as true also in Q1, if you look across the different products and capabilities we offer. And so I think we need to, one, kind of rethink, and we've tried to start to do this year, our philosophy and methodology around forecasting. And we'll talk probably about that later. I'm sure there will be conversations about that.

是的，我也很高興聽到你的聲音，Lisa。我對 John 也是同樣的感受。你看，過去幾個季度，我們在準確預測業務樣貌方面確實很困難。我想說的是，在過去 5 年裡，我們非常一致地提升市占率，第一季也是如此，如果你檢視我們提供的不同產品與能力。因此我認為，第一，我們需要某種程度上重新思考——而我們今年也已嘗試開始做——我們在預測方面的理念與方法論。我們可能稍後會談到這點，我相信也會有相關討論。

Second, I think there are less things we need to do extremely well. And so we are really going to be focusing on checkout, and we can talk about that in more detail later in the call, but we have a number of initiatives on advancing our position in checkout and also thinking about next-generation checkout as well.

第二，我認為我們需要把要做到極致的事情變得更少。因此我們將非常聚焦在結帳（checkout）上；我們可以在稍後的電話會議中更詳細討論，但我們有多項計畫要推進我們在結帳領域的地位，也同時思考下一代結帳。

And we also need to double-down on the digital wallet. We clearly believe that's where the future of the industry is going. It's the future of PayPal. It is the heart of what we are trying to do from an engagement perspective. And so those are the 2 things that we really need to double-down on.

我們也需要加倍投入數位錢包。我們清楚相信那是產業未來的走向，也是 PayPal 的未來，更是我們從互動（engagement）角度所要做的核心。因此，這就是我們真正需要加倍投入的兩件事。

I would say the third thing is we need to go back to where we were before we came into the pandemic, with a real focus on our operating model, making sure we simplify and streamline, putting more and more accountability into the hands of our product managers and driving really end-to-end accountability and ownership across the whole business.

我會說第三件事是，我們需要回到疫情前我們原本的狀態，真正聚焦在我們的營運模式上，確保我們簡化並精實流程，把越來越多的責任下放到產品經理手中，並在整個業務範圍內推動真正端到端的責任歸屬與所有權。

And so there are clearly a lot of things we need to do. I feel like we're beginning to make good progress on some of the execution. Q1 was a piece of that and some of the metrics are -- we're seeing green shoots on that. But we've just got to stay focused and keep driving simplification and operating leverage in our model.

因此，顯然我們有很多事情需要做。我覺得我們在部分執行面已開始取得不錯的進展。第一季是其中一部分，一些指標也——我們看到了一些初步的正向跡象。但我們必須保持專注，持續推動簡化，以及在我們的模式中提升營運槓桿。

Your next question comes from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的黃天勤（Tien-Tsin Huang）。

And may I also start by saying thank you to John and absolutely wish you nothing but the best. I'll ask on the outlook. I know Lisa asked a good question on what's going to change, but I'm just trying to better understand the full year vision to revenue and EPS and where you're landing now versus 90 days ago. So it looks like the eBay assumption is the same.

我也想先說，謝謝 John，並真心祝你一切順利。我想問的是展望。我知道 Lisa 已經問了一個很好的問題，關於接下來會改變什麼，但我只是想更清楚了解你們對全年營收與 EPS 的願景，以及你們現在的落點相較於 90 天前的差異。所以看起來對 eBay 的假設是一樣的。

So how much of the change is due to macro factors versus maybe you know a little bit more about the impacts of your strategy shift? And of course, how much did conservatism play a role, recognizing, as you said, visibility is tough and you have a CFO seat to fill, et cetera?

那麼，這次變動有多少是因為總體因素，又有多少可能是因為你們對策略轉向的影響有了更多了解？當然，保守性在其中扮演了多少角色——畢竟如你所說，可見度很差，而且你們還有 CFO 的職位要補，等等？

Sure, Tien-Tsin. I'll start. And let me first say thank you for your comments. And I think Gabrielle will probably jump in on this as well. But I'll give a little bit of color to the way that we're thinking about guidance. And so you'll recall, and Dan also referred to this in his prepared remarks, that at the last quarter, when we gave a revenue range of 15% to 17%, we very clearly said if things did not improve, we would be at the low end of that range.

好的，Tien-Tsin。我先回答。也先謝謝你的評論。我想 Gabrielle 也可能會補充。不過我先提供一些我們如何思考財測（guidance）的背景。你會記得——Dan 在事先準備的發言中也提到——上個季度我們給出 15% 到 17% 的營收區間時，我們非常清楚地說過，如果情況沒有改善，我們會落在區間的低端。

And that's a different approach to the guidance that we have today, insofar as we are actually assuming that things get a little worse from here. It's been challenging forecasting sort of the return or the normalization of e-commerce trends post-pandemic. And we've been chasing this for a little bit, and we don't want to continue to find ourselves in that situation.

而今天的財測做法不同之處在於，我們其實是假設從現在開始情況會再稍微變差一些。疫情後電商趨勢的回歸或正常化一直很難預測。我們追著這個變化跑了一段時間，也不希望繼續讓自己陷入那樣的狀況。

So if you sort of contrast where we are today with when we gave that guidance, not only have things not improved, I think very clearly, they've gotten worse. We've got a war that's broken out in Ukraine. We've seen more supply chain issues that are acute in places like China. You've got even higher inflation now, which is, I think, disproportionately affecting our customer base that skews more towards discretionary spend versus nondiscretionary spend. All of these things affect the way that we're approaching the outlook for the year.

所以如果你把我們今天的狀況與當時給出財測時相比，不僅情況沒有改善，我認為很明顯地，情況變得更糟。烏克蘭爆發了戰爭。我們看到更多供應鏈問題，在中國等地尤其嚴重。現在通膨更高，我認為這對我們的客群影響更大，因為我們的客群相對更偏向可選性支出，而不是必需性支出。所有這些因素都影響我們對今年展望的看法。

Gabrielle, do you want to add anything?

Gabrielle，你要補充什麼嗎？

Yes, sure. Thanks, John. So Tien-Tsin, in terms of sort of lowering the revenue outlook, in addition to what John mentioned around just the macro worsening and what that means for our overall growth expectations in our core markets, we also, to John's point, sort of took a look at what we're seeing on our own platform. And that really relates to sort of e-commerce and consumer behavior. It does have that sort of macro intersection, but for us, because we have more of a discretionary platform, we do see a greater impact on the spend.

好的，當然。謝謝你，John。Tien-Tsin，關於下調營收展望，除了 John 提到的總體環境惡化，以及這對我們核心市場整體成長預期的意涵之外，我們也——如 John 所說——檢視了我們在自家平台上看到的情況。這主要與電商與消費者行為有關。它確實與總體環境有交集，但對我們而言，因為我們的平台更偏向可選性消費，所以我們確實看到支出受到更大的影響。

And so relative to how we started the year, e-commerce globally is slower than what we thought, and we're seeing that come through on our platform. And so we're reflecting that, and that's both in terms of just the spending patterns as well as off-line/online mix. So that's sort of how we're thinking about starting the year. It's really not about our overall conviction in the secular tailwinds that support the business, but we want to be realistic about what we're seeing in-year and adjust that outlook for that.

因此，相較於年初的預期，全球電商的成長比我們想的更慢，而我們也看到這反映在我們的平台上。所以我們把這點納入反映，這既包括支出型態，也包括線下/線上組合的變化。這就是我們對年初情勢的思考方式。這並不是因為我們對支撐業務的長期結構性順風（secular tailwinds）失去信心，而是我們希望務實面對年度內所看到的情況，並據此調整展望。

The final contributor to it on the revenue side is really that we've recalibrated our expectations on some of our initiatives at PayPal based upon those lower global growth expectations. And so we wanted to have a consistency in that conservatism around what we think are sort of newer initiatives can deliver in-year given some of those macro impacts.

營收面最後一個因素是，我們基於較低的全球成長預期，重新校準了 PayPal 部分計畫的預期。因此，我們希望在保守性上保持一致，對於一些較新的計畫在今年、在這些總體影響下能交付多少，我們採取更審慎的看法。

On the EPS side, it's really a flow-through of some of these things, but maybe just something I would call out is from a volume standpoint. We are seeing outsized performance from Braintree. So that unbranded processing mix does play a role in the overall profitability of the business. And so we're taking down EPS, in part, for that.

在 EPS 方面，主要是上述因素的傳導效應（flow-through），但我想特別指出的是交易量的角度：我們看到 Braintree 的表現超出預期。因此，這種非品牌（unbranded）處理的組合確實會影響整體獲利能力，所以我們下調 EPS 的部分原因也在於此。

In addition to that, we're continuing to invest heavily in the areas that we think are important to drive that long-term profitable growth. And so that's what you're seeing sort of in terms of the overall impact to EPS. One other call-out would just be suspending transaction services in Russia does have an EPS impact as well, and so we have adjusted our outlook for that.

此外，我們仍在我們認為對推動長期獲利性成長很重要的領域大力投資，所以你看到的 EPS 整體影響也反映了這點。另一個要點是，暫停在俄羅斯的交易服務也會對 EPS 造成影響，因此我們也為此調整了展望。

Your next question comes from the line of Darrin Peller of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Darrin Peller。

John, I also want to wish you the best. And guys, when we look at -- yes, when we look at the guidance that you guys gave, and I know you withdrew the medium term, which I think a lot of investors expected at this point, but the exit year, if you could just help us understand the cadence of the year and then the exit growth rate implied by the new guide range and maybe a little more on the assumptions behind that exit rate.

John，我也想祝你一切順利。各位，當我們看——是的，當我們看你們給出的財測時，我知道你們撤回了中期指引，我想很多投資人此時也預期會這樣。但關於年底（exit year），能否請你們幫我們理解今年的節奏，以及新指引區間所隱含的年底退出成長率（exit growth rate），並再多談一些支撐該退出成長率的假設？

Yes. Sure, Darrin. I'll start off there and then see if Gabs or John want to add to it. So as I said in my remarks, what the back half implies with our 11% to 13% is a 15.5% revenue growth in the back half, so mid-teens, in general, with that. And then as we think about EPS, there are a number of onetime events on our EPS growth rates. But when we think about kind of like what is an exit as we go into next year, just kind of on a normalized basis, it's probably in the mid-teens as well.

好的，當然，Darrin。我先回答，然後看看 Gabs 或 John 是否要補充。如我在發言中所說，我們 11% 到 13% 的指引所隱含的下半年，是下半年營收成長 15.5%，也就是整體而言約在 10% 中段（mid-teens）。至於 EPS，我們的 EPS 成長率有一些一次性事件（onetime events）。但當我們思考進入明年時的「退出」水準，若以較正常化（normalized）的基礎來看，可能也大約在 10% 中段。

And as we think about the medium term, the thing that I talked about in my script is that we've had a long track record of taking share and growing faster than e-commerce. And so as you're thinking about kind of what does that medium term look like, it really depends on your view of kind of where e-commerce is going to come out.

至於中期（medium term），我在講稿中提到的一點是：我們長期以來一直在搶市占，且成長速度快於電商。因此，當你在思考中期會長什麼樣子時，很大程度取決於你對電商最終會落在哪個水準的看法。

We'll take a look, but there are a lot of shifting estimates right now, as John mentioned, coming out of the pandemic, now coming into a high inflation kind of a macroeconomic environment that's uncertain. And the magnitude of that uncertainty is wider. We felt it was best to characterize kind of what the company expects to do over the medium term as opposed to put out any specific numbers.

我們會再觀察，但目前有很多預估正在變動，如 John 所提到的，從疫情後的環境，現在又進入高通膨、且不確定的總體經濟環境。不確定性的幅度更大。我們認為，與其提出任何具體數字，不如用更合適的方式描述公司對中期能做到什麼的預期。

I'll just add too, Darrin, that, look, no company wants to be in the position of pulling their medium-term guidance. But when you step back and you look at the set of assumptions on which we base that medium-term guidance, they're very, very different today. That said, and perhaps I'm in a unique position to say this, that doesn't take away our conviction and the long-term value and the prospects for this business at all.

我也補充一下，Darrin，坦白說，沒有任何公司希望處於撤回中期指引的位置。但當你退一步看，我們用來制定中期指引的那一整套假設，如今已經非常、非常不同。即便如此——也許我在這點上有點特殊立場——這完全不會削弱我們對這項業務的信心，以及它的長期價值與前景。

This -- there are a few companies of our size and scale in digital payments that have some of the unique attributes that we have around our cash flow generation, our revenue growth and the margin profile that we do. And so we're not immune to some of these economic vagaries that we're going through right now. But we've got to respond to that.

在數位支付領域，像我們這樣規模與體量的公司並不多，能同時具備我們在現金流創造、營收成長，以及利潤率結構（margin profile）方面的一些獨特特質。因此，我們並非不受目前所經歷的這些經濟變數影響，但我們必須做出回應。

And -- but that should not take away from how you think about our business longer-term. And again, we are perhaps the purest play in digital payments, and we're going to continue to invest appropriately to make sure that we stay that way and stay a leader in digital payments going forward.

而且——但這不應該影響你對我們業務長期發展的看法。再說一次，我們或許是數位支付領域最純粹的標的，我們將持續適度投資，確保我們能維持這一定位，並在未來持續成為數位支付的領導者。

Yes. And if I can just jump on top of John's points. Like at some point, these trends tend to turn as well, but when that happens is unclear. And so we know, as long as we continue to invest, to seize those growth opportunities, to ensure that our growth remains in excess of that of e-commerce, when these things do change, we'll be beneficiaries of that as well. So we just want to be heads down, focused on the things we control and execute really well against them.

是的。而且如果我可以在 John 的觀點上再補充一下。這些趨勢在某個時間點往往也會反轉，但何時發生並不明確。因此我們知道，只要我們持續投資、把握那些成長機會，確保我們的成長仍高於電商的成長，當這些情況改變時，我們也會成為受益者。所以我們只想埋頭專注在我們能掌控的事情上，並把執行做到非常到位。

Your next question comes from the line of Ramsey El-Assal of Barclays.

下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Ramsey El-Assal。

I wonder if you could give us an update on the kind of pivot to focusing more on customer engagement versus acquisition. And I guess, specifically, do you have all the tools that you need now to sort of execute on this shift? Is there more development or M&A or incremental technology or resources that you're going to need to dedicate to the new strategy? Or are you kind of set where you are now to make it happen?

我想請你們更新一下，關於把重心轉向更聚焦於客戶互動（engagement）而非獲客（acquisition）的這種轉變。具體來說，你們現在是否已經具備執行這項轉變所需的所有工具？是否還需要更多的開發、併購（M&A）、額外的技術或資源來投入新策略？還是說以你們目前的狀態就已經準備好把它做成？

Yes. It's at such a fast-moving environment that we operate in, with constant innovation, that we're never in a place where we're not going to need to continue to innovate and invest in the business. I think we've made some really important strides in the past year or so with the advent of our digital wallet. We clearly think that the world is continuing to digitize. Yes, there's some normalization between online and off-line right now. But going forward, the world continues to digitize.

是的。我們所處的環境變化非常快、創新不斷，因此我們永遠不會處在不需要持續創新與投資業務的狀態。我認為過去一年左右，隨著我們數位錢包的推出，我們已經取得一些非常重要的進展。我們清楚認為世界仍在持續數位化。是的，現在線上與線下之間確實出現一些常態化（normalization）。但往前看，世界仍會持續數位化。

And disparate parts of the economy are coming together, whether that be shopping, payments, basic financial services. And so the wallet is going to be one of the key elements of how we drive customer engagement. And we're going to continue to evolve the wallet. It is v 1.0 right now. And there's going to be v 2.0 and v 3.0, and we've got a number of things on our road map that we really want to execute against this year. But we're already beginning to see uptick in our engagement.

而且經濟中分散的各個部分正在融合，不論是購物、支付、基本金融服務。因此，錢包將會是我們推動客戶互動的關鍵要素之一。我們也會持續演進錢包；目前是 v 1.0，未來會有 v 2.0、v 3.0。我們的路線圖上有許多事情，是我們今年非常想要落地執行的。但我們已經開始看到互動度的提升。

For the second quarter in a row, we had 11% TPA. Ex eBay, actually, engagement went up 19% in the quarter. That's a pretty big move in terms of engagement. And you heard the stats that I talked about in my script in terms of the increases in ARPA, the decreases in churn. And as you think about kind of our growth going forward, 30% of our customers generate 80% of the volume on our platform.

連續第二個季度，我們的 TPA 為 11%。若排除 eBay，實際上本季度互動度上升了 19%。就互動而言，這是相當大的提升。你也聽到我在講稿中提到的數據，包括 ARPA 的提升、流失率（churn）的下降。當你思考我們未來的成長時，我們 30% 的客戶貢獻了平台上 80% 的交易量。

We're clearly not a subscription business, we're a transaction-based business. And growing those transactions is a huge opportunity for us. We probably, today, have like 25% of the online financial transactions that a consumer does. And so there's a ton of room for us to grow in that area.

我們顯然不是訂閱制業務，而是以交易為基礎的業務。增加這些交易對我們而言是巨大的機會。以今天來看，我們大概只涵蓋消費者線上金融交易的約 25%。因此在這個領域我們還有很大的成長空間。

I would also say the surest way for us to grow net new actives going forward is to increase engagement. Like when you're at 429 million active accounts, even with a consistent churn rate year-over-year, and by the way, we know, this year, our churn rate will be somewhat higher because we're letting these low engaged consumers churn off the platform because the ROI to keep them isn't worth it. But the more we can keep people on the platform engaged, the more we'll grow our NNAs going forward.

我也會說，未來我們成長淨新增活躍帳戶（NNAs）最確定的方法，就是提升互動度。當你有 4.29 億個活躍帳戶時，即使年對年流失率維持一致——而且順帶一提，我們知道今年流失率會稍微更高，因為我們會讓這些低互動的消費者從平台自然流失，因為為了留住他們的投資報酬率（ROI）不值得——但我們越能讓人們留在平台並保持互動，未來我們的 NNAs 就會成長得越多。

And so the 2 big things we're focused on, improving checkout, improving digital wallet, are the things that we'll probably be talking about for years to come actually. Anything you would add?

因此我們聚焦的兩大重點——改善結帳體驗、改善數位錢包——其實很可能會是我們未來多年都會持續談論的事情。你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Jason Kupferberg。

I wanted to shift over to Venmo for a minute, if I could. I know that volume growth started the year at 12%. Clearly, there was a tough comp there. I'm just wondering whether or not any of the new IRS rules around reporting of these transactions is having any impact there, how you expect Venmo volume growth to evolve during the course of the year. I know you started really strong on the revenue side, with Venmo at 60% in Q1. So fair to assume you still expect 50%-plus revenue growth from Venmo this year?

如果可以的話，我想先把話題轉到 Venmo 一下。我知道交易量成長年初是 12%，顯然去年同期基期很高。我想問的是，國稅局（IRS）關於這些交易申報的新規則是否對此有任何影響？你們預期 Venmo 的交易量成長在今年內會如何演變？我知道在營收面，Venmo 在第一季成長 60%，開局很強。所以是否可以合理假設你們今年仍預期 Venmo 營收成長 50% 以上？

Yes, Jason, I think we continue to expect the 50% revenue growth for Venmo this year. To your question on sort of the IRS change, I would say, very early in the year, we did see some impact from that. We've worked a ton on customer comprehension and education. So we think that's basically behind us, just in terms of what the impact could be.

是的，Jason，我們仍然預期 Venmo 今年營收成長 50%。至於你提到的 IRS 規則變更，我會說在年初非常早期我們確實看到一些影響。我們在客戶理解與教育方面做了大量工作，所以我們認為就可能造成的影響而言，基本上已經過去了。

But we also are up against really tough comps. And so last year's Q1 was 63% growth for Venmo, this year, 12%. The business has scaled to the point that it's actually meaningfully larger than what our U.S. business was coming out of separation. And so at this point, we continue to expect strong growth, but it's going to be a mix of commerce volumes and revenue as well as the P2P piece. Dan, anything to add?

但我們同時也面臨非常艱難的同比基期。因此去年第一季 Venmo 成長是 63%，今年是 12%。這項業務的規模已經擴大到一個程度，實際上明顯大於我們在分拆後剛起步時的美國業務規模。因此在這個時間點，我們仍預期強勁成長，但會是商業交易量與營收，以及 P2P 部分的組合。Dan，有什麼要補充的嗎？

I would just say they've got a strong road map ahead of them, putting in business profiles, transitioning that almost into storefronts, enabling charities to be a part -- listed on Venmo, the full debit card refreshed, revamping P2P, even improving searchability and other things around that. So they've got a -- and then, of course, launching Amazon in the back half of the year. So they've got a pretty full road map. And I think Gab summarized all the other points perfectly.

我只想說，他們前方有很強的路線圖：導入商家檔案（business profiles），幾乎把它轉型成店面（storefronts）；讓慈善機構能夠成為 Venmo 的一部分——在 Venmo 上列示；全面更新簽帳金融卡（debit card）；重整 P2P，甚至提升搜尋性以及其他相關功能。所以他們的——當然還有在今年下半年上線 Amazon。因此他們的路線圖相當滿。我認為 Gab 已經把其他重點都總結得非常到位。

Your next question comes from Bryan Keane with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Bryan Keane。

I wanted to ask about TPV. When I look at total payment volume in the quarter, I see the dichotomy between U.S. growth, up 21%, and international, only up 5%. So clearly, international is growing slower than the U.S. So wondering, when I look at the international market, what are some of the factors there that are influencing the growth rates. Is it inflation? Is the Ukraine situation bleeding into other parts of Europe? Is there any share loss? Any color on that would be great.

我想問一下 TPV。當我看本季度的總支付交易量時，我看到美國成長 21%，而國際僅成長 5%，呈現明顯落差。顯然國際成長比美國慢。所以我想了解，從國際市場來看，有哪些因素在影響成長率？是通膨嗎？烏克蘭局勢是否外溢影響到歐洲其他地區？是否有任何市占流失？如果能提供一些說明會很有幫助。

Yes, sure. Thanks for the question, Bryan. I think the 2 main drivers really are, in first instance, actually very challenging comps. We're up against very, very tough comps from last year. So Q1 of last year, international revenue growth, 38% in the quarter, and it was 47% ex eBay. So that alone is sort of one of the drivers this year. The other big piece really is the eBay component. And so that too is playing a role. So on the revenue side, international revenue growth, ex eBay, was up 5%, relative to the negative side that you see.

好的，當然。謝謝你的問題，Bryan。我認為兩個主要驅動因素，首先其實是非常具挑戰性的同比基期。我們面對去年非常、非常高的基期。因此去年第一季國際營收成長在該季度為 38%，若排除 eBay 則為 47%。光是這一點就是今年的驅動因素之一。另一個很大的因素其實是 eBay 的組成部分，因此它也在發揮作用。所以在營收面，國際營收成長若排除 eBay 為 5%，相較於你看到的負向部分。

Probably also worth highlighting, that China and U.K. continue to be tough markets for us, and that is both the eBay migration, but it really is also the macro. And so that's one where we're watching it really closely. We did see sort of China revenue down more than it was in Q4., U.K. revenue down again more than it was in Q4, and so we'll continue to watch it closely, but that definitely does have a macro layer to it.

另外也值得強調的是，中國與英國對我們而言仍是艱難市場，這既有 eBay 遷移的因素，但也確實有總體經濟（macro）的影響。因此這部分我們正非常密切地觀察。我們確實看到中國營收下滑幅度比第四季更大，英國營收下滑也再次比第四季更大；我們會持續密切關注，但這確實帶有宏觀層面的影響。

Got it. And good luck, John.

了解。祝你好運，John。

Thanks, Bryan.

謝謝，Bryan。

Your next question comes from Mike Ng of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Mike Ng。

I would like to ask about competition. Specifically, there have been some high-profile challenges reported for startups in the one-click checkout space. Could you talk a little bit about some of the benefits of PayPal's scale that may create barriers to entry among new entrants and where you're most focused as it relates to competition, if not necessarily new competitors?

我想請教競爭方面的問題。具體來說，近期有一些關於一鍵結帳（one-click checkout）領域新創公司遭遇高調挑戰的報導。你能否談談 PayPal 規模所帶來的一些優勢，如何可能在新進入者之間形成進入門檻？以及就競爭而言——即便不一定是新競爭者——你們目前最聚焦的方向是什麼？

Yes. Well, as you point out, look, checkout is our business. I mean you've got to be able to scale it. And it's got to be perfect. As you noted, retailers depend completely on a checkout provider. And if it doesn't go right, they can lose a tremendous amount of sales.

是的。嗯，正如你指出的，你看，結帳是我們的本業。我的意思是，你必須能夠把它擴展到更大規模。而且它必須完美無缺。正如你提到的，零售商完全依賴結帳服務供應商。若結帳流程不順利，他們可能會流失大量銷售。

And so like the brand trust we have and our track record over time, our availability, our fraud and risk capabilities, have been honed over the last 10 or 15 years. Like on average, a retailer that does 100 transactions with PayPal, we approve 6 more than somebody else -- another checkout methodology. These make huge differences.

因此，我們所擁有的品牌信任與長期累積的實績、可用性、反詐欺與風險能力，都是在過去 10 到 15 年間磨練出來的。平均而言，一家零售商用 PayPal 做 100 筆交易，我們會比其他人——另一種結帳方式——多核准 6 筆。這些差異非常巨大。

I would say, the other thing, of course, is that it is a network effects business. The larger the scale, the more attractive the network is. And when you do consumer surveys, 60% of consumers pick PayPal as their #1 choice to do an online transaction. The next closest digital wallet is 8%. So it's not even close. PayPal customers are 2x more likely to shop when they see a PayPal button.

我會說，當然，另一點是這是一門網路效應的生意。規模越大，網路就越有吸引力。而當你做消費者調查時，60% 的消費者會把 PayPal 選為他們進行線上交易的第一選擇。下一個最接近的數位錢包是 8%。所以根本不是同一個量級。當 PayPal 客戶看到 PayPal 按鈕時，他們購物的可能性是 2 倍。

And for smaller merchants, having the PayPal brand is essential because in today's age, you're seeing much more e-commerce sales that are outside of local territories. It's across state. It's across the country. It's across countries. And seeing that PayPal brand enables the consumer to feel confident that they've got protection and for a business to feel comfortable because we give them seller protections as well.

而對於較小的商家而言，擁有 PayPal 品牌至關重要，因為在當今，你會看到更多電商銷售發生在本地區域之外。跨州、跨全國、跨國界。看到 PayPal 品牌能讓消費者有信心，知道自己受到保障；也讓企業更安心，因為我們也提供賣家保障。

And so we have a ton of scale advantages and a ton of experience in high auth rates and low loss rates, which typically don't work hand in hand, but they do work that way with us. And look, we are not resting on any of those laurels by any stretch of imagination. We are driving to improve basic hygiene, increased uptime and availability at 99.999% level, taking latency down to low single-digit seconds, simplifying our UX right now.

因此，我們在規模與經驗上有大量優勢，能做到高授權核准率與低損失率——這兩者通常難以兼得，但在我們這裡可以同時成立。而且你看，我們絕不會躺在這些成就上。我們正推動改善基本衛生項目，把正常運作時間與可用性提升到 99.999% 的水準，把延遲降到個位數秒的低區間，並且正在簡化我們的使用者體驗（UX）。

Too often, there's a pop-up that occurs, and it takes you out of the web or the native app. And you don't want to go out and then back into that app. So we want to drive in-context or in-line checkout. We know we can even make our integrations easier and simpler by moving more and more towards industry standard integrations. And we're going to optimize log-on through new identity techniques.

太常見的是會跳出一個彈出視窗，把你帶離網頁或原生 App。你不想離開再回到那個 App。因此我們希望推動在情境內（in-context）或內嵌式（in-line）的結帳。我們也知道，透過越來越多地轉向業界標準整合方式，我們甚至可以讓整合更容易、更簡單。我們也將透過新的身分識別技術來最佳化登入流程。

And by the way, we are also thinking about the next generation of checkout. The real issue for retailers is not so much can you make conversion better when a consumer gets to the product page or the checkout page, which, by the way, is important because every little bit actually matters to merchants, and we clearly lead in that area.

另外，我們也在思考下一代的結帳。對零售商來說，真正的問題不完全是當消費者到了商品頁或結帳頁時，你能不能提升轉換率——順帶一提，這很重要，因為每一點點提升對商家都很關鍵，而我們在這方面顯然領先。

But the real issue is less than 5 out of 100 people who go to a merchant's website actually check out. So there's a ton of drop-off before a consumer gets to the product pages or to the checkout. And basically, nobody has the amount of data and information we have on customers.

但真正的問題是：到商家網站的 100 個人裡，實際結帳的不到 5 個。所以在消費者到達商品頁或結帳之前，就有大量流失。而基本上，沒有人擁有像我們這樣多的客戶資料與資訊。

We vault over 1 billion financial instruments on our platform, well more than that. And being able to work with retailers and consumers, to surface who that consumer is, obviously with consent and all of that, so that a retailer can customize kind of to every customer coming on that have offers or deals or with a homepage they come to is a huge potential next-generation of checkout with a lot of interest from merchants. And nobody can really do that better than we can because of our scale and the data we have.

我們在平台上保管（vault）超過 10 億個金融工具，遠不止如此。能夠與零售商與消費者合作，在取得同意等前提下，呈現該消費者是誰，讓零售商可以針對每一位進站的客戶進行客製化——提供優惠或折扣，或客戶進入時看到的首頁內容——這就是下一代結帳的巨大潛力，也引起商家高度興趣。由於我們的規模與資料優勢，沒有人能比我們做得更好。

And so I think we got a lot of good advantages right now, but we are really thinking about how do we take it to the next level and how do we even reimagine checkout.

因此，我認為我們目前有很多很好的優勢，但我們也在認真思考如何把它提升到下一個層級，甚至如何重新想像結帳。

We have time for one last question from David Togut of Evercore.

我們還有時間回答 Evercore 的 David Togut 的最後一個問題。

All the best to you, John.

祝你一切順利，John。

Thanks, David.

謝謝你，David。

At the beginning of the pandemic, Dan, you clearly articulated a focus on unified commerce, in particular, a major rollout of QR codes at some of the biggest retailers in the country. And more recently, we've seen consumers return to the physical point-of-sale with increased vaccination rates. Can you update us on how PayPal is positioned in unified commerce, and in particular, where you stand with the QR code rollout?

在疫情一開始，Dan，你清楚闡述了對「統一商務」的聚焦，特別是在全國一些最大的零售商大規模推廣 QR Code。最近，隨著疫苗接種率提高，我們看到消費者回到實體門市的 POS（銷售點）。你能否更新一下 PayPal 在統一商務上的定位，尤其是 QR Code 推廣的進展？

Yes. Well, I think we said from the very beginning, it's proving to be very true, that in-person payments is going to be -- it's going to be a long shot for us going forward. There's no magic word to that. We are continuing to increase, every quarter, the number of retailers that offer our QR codes.

是的。嗯，我想我們從一開始就說過，而且事實證明確實如此：面對面支付對我們而言，未來會——會是一條很難走的路。這沒有什麼魔法詞可以解決。我們仍在持續、每一季都增加提供我們 QR Code 的零售商數量。

But changing consumer behavior to move to mobile and mobile checkout, it's going to take time. It clearly will happen over time, but it's going to take time. And so our view on this is that we really feel like putting quite a large emphasis on revamping our debit and credit card to tie in fully with our app, but enabling a consumer to shop seamlessly. If it's in-store, they want to use a form factor they're familiar with, they can do that. But it ties completely into the app, fully integrated, a little like the Venmo credit card is into the Venmo app.

但要改變消費者行為，讓他們轉向行動支付與行動結帳，這需要時間。它顯然會隨時間發生，但需要時間。因此我們的看法是，我們真的覺得應該把相當大的重點放在改造我們的簽帳卡與信用卡，讓它們與我們的 App 完全連結，讓消費者能無縫購物。如果是在店內，他們想用自己熟悉的形式（form factor），也可以這麼做。但它會與 App 完全連動、完整整合，有點像 Venmo 信用卡與 Venmo App 的整合方式。

We just launched this 3-2 card, 3% cash-back on any purchase on PayPal, 2% everywhere else, but it is a fully integrated experience. And so, for instance, what might you be able to do with that. You might be able to go into a store, pay with your 3-2 card and then come into the app and do a Buy Now, Pay Later type of thing.

我們剛推出這張 3-2 卡：在 PayPal 上的任何消費可享 3% 現金回饋，在其他地方則是 2%，而且是完全整合的體驗。舉例來說，你可以用它做什麼？你可能可以走進一家店，用你的 3-2 卡付款，然後回到 App 裡做一個「先買後付」（Buy Now, Pay Later）之類的操作。

So flexibility on choice of how you pay, not just doing it instantaneously. You may want to split that way of paying for that through rewards points and fiat currency. And this, tying in of both using the mobile phone at point-of-sale, but also enabling people to use cards and tie that directly into our app, I think, is probably a good 1-2 punch as we think about moving into in-store.

也就是在支付方式選擇上的彈性，不只是即時一次付清。你可能想把那筆付款用獎勵點數與法幣（fiat currency）來分拆支付。而這種把手機在 POS 使用、同時也讓人們使用卡片並直接與我們 App 連結的做法，我認為，當我們思考如何進入店內支付時，可能是一個很好的「一加一」組合拳。

Clearly, Buy Now, Pay Later is exploding everywhere. And we are really gaining good traction there, good traction on upstream presentment, and more and more people want to use that. And that plays, by the way, right into our advantages as well because we have 10 years of credit experience. We think we have the lowest loss rates of the Buy Now, Pay Later industry, probably the highest approval rates because we know so many of the customers and a really powerful value proposition to merchants. And now, we can tie that both online and off-line, and that can be a pretty powerful combination.

顯然，「先買後付」正在各地爆發式成長。我們在那方面確實取得了很好的進展，在上游呈現（upstream presentment）上也有不錯的動能，而且越來越多人想使用它。順帶一提，這也正好契合我們的優勢，因為我們有 10 年的信貸經驗。我們認為我們在先買後付產業中擁有最低的損失率，可能也有最高的核准率，因為我們認識非常多客戶，並且能為商家提供非常強的價值主張。現在，我們也能把它同時串聯線上與線下，這會是相當強大的組合。

All right. Well, thank you, everybody, for joining us. And John, we -- you heard it from everybody, but you'll hear it from us how much we will miss you as well. And...

好的。那麼，謝謝各位今天加入我們。John，我們——你已經從大家那裡聽到了，但你也會從我們這裡聽到：我們會非常想念你。而且……

Thank you. I will miss you all as well, too.

謝謝。我也會想念大家。

Yes. And we look forward to working with you, I'm sure, the projection, as well. Okay, everybody. Thanks very much for your time, and we look forward to talking to you soon. Take care. Bye-bye.

是的。而且我們也期待能與你合作，我相信，未來也是如此。好，各位。非常感謝你們的時間，我們期待很快再與各位交流。保重。再見。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛線。