PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Mel, and I will be your conference operator for today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to PayPal Holdings Earnings Conference Call for the Third Quarter 2021. (Operator Instructions)

下午好。我叫 Mel，今天將擔任本次電話會議的會議接線員。此刻，我謹代表主辦方歡迎各位參加 PayPal Holdings 2021 年第三季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）

I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Ms. Gabrielle Rabinovitch, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

接下來我想介紹今天電話會議的主持人：Gabrielle Rabinovitch 女士，企業財務與投資人關係資深副總裁。請開始。

Thank you, Mel. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. Welcome to PayPal's earnings conference call for the third quarter of 2021. Joining me today on the call are Dan Schulman, our President and CEO; and John Rainey, our Chief Financial Officer and EVP, Global Customer Operations.

謝謝你，Mel。下午好，感謝各位加入我們。歡迎參加 PayPal 2021 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的還有：我們的總裁暨執行長 Dan Schulman，以及我們的財務長兼全球客戶營運執行副總裁 John Rainey。

We're providing a slide presentation to accompany our commentary. This conference call is also being webcast, and both the presentation and call are available on our Investor Relations website.

我們提供投影片簡報以配合我們的說明。本次電話會議亦同步網路直播，簡報與電話會議內容皆可於我們的投資人關係網站取得。

In discussing our company's performance, we will refer to some non-GAAP measures. You can find the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the presentation accompanying this conference call.

在討論公司表現時，我們將引用部分非 GAAP 指標。您可在本次電話會議隨附的簡報中，找到這些非 GAAP 指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標之調節表。

Management will make forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations, forecasts and assumptions, and involve risks and uncertainties. These statements include our guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2021 and our outlook for 2022. Our actual results may differ materially from these statements. You can find more information about risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our results in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC and available on our Investor Relations website. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements.

管理團隊將發表前瞻性陳述，該等陳述係基於我們目前的預期、預測與假設，並涉及風險與不確定性。這些陳述包括我們對 2021 年第四季與全年之指引，以及對 2022 年的展望。我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述存在重大差異。關於可能影響我們業績的風險、不確定性及其他因素之更多資訊，請參閱我們最近一期的 Form 10-K 年度報告與向 SEC 提交的 Form 10-Q 季度報告，並可於我們的投資人關係網站取得。您不應過度依賴任何前瞻性陳述。

All information in this presentation is as of today's date, November 8, 2021. We expressly disclaim any obligation to update this information.

本簡報中的所有資訊截至今日（2021 年 11 月 8 日）。我們明確聲明不承擔更新該等資訊之任何義務。

With that, let me turn the call over to Dan.

接下來，我把電話交給 Dan。

Thanks, Gabrielle, and thanks, everyone, for joining us.

謝謝你，Gabrielle，也謝謝各位參與。

Well, the big news today is that for the first time, we are teaming up with Amazon to enable customers in the U.S. to pay with Venmo at checkout. Starting next year, customers will be able to make purchases on amazon.com and the Amazon Mobile Shopping app using their Venmo accounts. This is obviously a very significant moment in our Venmo monetization efforts and marks the beginning of an exciting journey with Amazon now that we are no longer constrained by the contractual obligations of the eBay operating agreement. The increasing scale and brand trust associated with our 2-sided platform continues to set us apart from the rest of the market and enables us to expand our footprint with existing merchants and attract new partners.

今天最大的消息是：我們首次與 Amazon 合作，讓美國客戶在結帳時可使用 Venmo 付款。自明年起，客戶將可在 amazon.com 以及 Amazon 行動購物 App 上使用其 Venmo 帳戶完成購買。這顯然是我們 Venmo 變現努力中的一個非常重要的時刻，也標誌著在我們不再受 eBay 營運協議合約義務限制後，與 Amazon 展開令人振奮旅程的起點。我們雙邊平台所具備的規模持續擴大與品牌信任度提升，使我們在市場中脫穎而出，並讓我們得以在既有商戶中擴大版圖，同時吸引新的合作夥伴。

And now to our results. Our overall Q3 results were generally in line with our expectations. Our total payment volume grew 26% on a spot basis to $310 billion. This comes even as eBay's TPV declined by 45% in the quarter and is now approximately 3% of our overall TPV. Excluding eBay, our volumes grew by 31% on a spot basis with an annualized run rate of $1.2 trillion.

接下來談我們的業績。我們第三季整體表現大致符合預期。我們的總支付交易量（TPV）按即期口徑成長 26%，達到 3,100 億美元。即便如此，eBay 的 TPV 在本季下滑 45%，目前約占我們整體 TPV 的 3%。若排除 eBay，我們的交易量按即期口徑成長 31%，年化運行率達 1.2 兆美元。

Our active accounts were up 15% year-over-year, reaching 416 million. We added 13.3 million net new active accounts in the quarter, including another 1.2 million merchant accounts, bringing our total merchant count to 33 million. And we remain on track to deliver more than 52 million NNAs for the year. Importantly, our diverse suite of products and services drove double-digit growth in our transactions per active account, up 10% to 44.2x.

我們的活躍帳戶數年增 15%，達到 4.16 億。本季我們新增 1,330 萬個淨新增活躍帳戶（NNA），其中包含另外 120 萬個商戶帳戶，使商戶總數達到 3,300 萬。我們仍按計畫在今年達成超過 5,200 萬個 NNA。重要的是，我們多元的產品與服務組合帶動每位活躍帳戶的交易次數維持雙位數成長，上升 10% 至 44.2 次。

Revenues in the quarter grew to $6.182 billion, growing 13% on a spot basis. This was slightly below our expectations as back-to-school sales and travel were weaker than we expected. But even so, excluding eBay, our revenues grew by 25% in Q3. eBay now represents less than 4% of our total revenues. And we delivered non-GAAP EPS of $1.11 even as we continue to invest heavily in our growth initiatives.

本季營收成長至 61.82 億美元，按即期口徑成長 13%。由於返校季銷售與旅遊需求弱於我們預期，營收略低於預估。但即便如此，若排除 eBay，我們第三季營收成長 25%。eBay 目前占我們總營收比重已低於 4%。在我們持續大力投資成長計畫的同時，我們仍交出非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）1.11 美元。

Our platform continues to drive substantial value for our merchants. PayPal is the most accepted digital wallet with more than 75% of the top 1,500 largest global merchants utilizing PayPal at checkout. And on average, our PayPal checkout conversion is 34% higher than other checkout options.

我們的平台持續為商戶創造可觀價值。PayPal 是最廣泛被接受的數位錢包，全球前 1,500 大商戶中有超過 75% 在結帳時提供 PayPal。平均而言，我們的 PayPal 結帳轉換率比其他結帳選項高出 34%。

In addition to our Amazon news, we are very pleased to say that Walmart now presents PayPal as a checkout option for both their grocery and marketplace business, and GoFundMe me added PayPal to their checkout flow with Venmo to follow in the coming months. Valero and Phillips 66 are adding our QR codes to their thousands of gas stations across the U.S., and United Airlines recently launched PayPal QR payments in-flight.

除了與 Amazon 的消息之外，我們也非常高興地宣布，Walmart 現在在其雜貨與市集（marketplace）業務中皆提供 PayPal 作為結帳選項；GoFundMe 也已在其結帳流程中加入 PayPal，Venmo 將在未來幾個月內跟進。Valero 與 Phillips 66 正在其遍布全美的數千座加油站導入我們的 QR Code，而 United Airlines 近期也已在機上推出 PayPal QR 付款。

As checkout evolves from pay now to pay on your own terms, we've seen rapid adoption of our Buy Now, Pay Later capabilities in the U.S., Germany, France, U.K. and Australia. In Q4, we will expand Buy Now, Pay Later to Italy and Spain. Also in this quarter, we eliminated consumer late fees to ensure we deliver the very best value proposition to our consumers while delivering on our mission to build an inclusive digital economy. Since our Buy Now, Pay Later launch, we have processed approximately $5.4 billion in TPV, with more than $2 billion of that TPV in Q3 alone. Approximately 950,000 merchants have customers who use our Buy Now, Pay Later capabilities and more than 65,000 have positioned Buy Now, Pay Later upstream on their product pages. And over 9.5 million consumers have transacted more than 33 million times with our Buy Now, Pay Later products. We will expand our global Pay Later portfolio in the first half of 2022 to include longer-term installment plans, allowing consumers to spread higher-price purchases over longer periods of time. This is already available in Germany where we are seeing great initial success.

隨著結帳從「立即付款」演進為「依照你的條件付款」，我們看到我們的「先買後付」（Buy Now, Pay Later）能力在美國、德國、法國、英國與澳洲迅速被採用。在第四季，我們將把先買後付擴展至義大利與西班牙。同樣在本季，我們取消了消費者逾期費用，以確保在推動打造包容性數位經濟之使命的同時，為消費者提供最佳價值主張。自先買後付推出以來，我們已處理約 54 億美元的 TPV，其中僅第三季就超過 20 億美元。約有 95 萬家商戶的客戶使用我們的先買後付功能，且超過 6.5 萬家商戶已在其產品頁面上游位置展示先買後付。超過 950 萬名消費者使用我們的先買後付產品完成交易，累計交易次數超過 3,300 萬次。我們將於 2022 年上半年擴展全球 Pay Later 產品組合，納入更長期的分期方案，讓消費者可在更長時間內分攤較高金額的購買。此方案已在德國推出，且我們看到非常好的初期成效。

We completed our acquisition of Paidy, a fast-growing 2-sided payments platform and provider of Buy Now, Pay Later solutions in Japan. This will accelerate our momentum in Japan, a strategically important market and one of the largest e-commerce markets in the world.

我們已完成對 Paidy 的收購；Paidy 是日本成長快速的雙邊支付平台，也是先買後付解決方案的供應商。此舉將加速我們在日本的動能；日本是具策略重要性的市場，也是全球最大的電子商務市場之一。

We are seeing very positive trends on our new PayPal app, which has now ramped to 100% globally. Consumers are engaging with the app and discovering the breadth of our new value proposition. Although it's still early, initial results show that the new app has driven a 25x lift in consumers exploring our deals and offer stack, a 15% increase in first-time users transacting with crypto, and it has also driven a 35% lift in our cash card enrollments. And the average revenue per account from digital wallet users is twice that of checkout-only users. We expect to launch more features next year, including equity investing capabilities. It's quite exciting to see the initial positive reaction to our app, and we will continue to refine and expand its functionality to help consumers navigate an increasingly digital and connected lifestyle.

我們在新版 PayPal App 上看到非常正向的趨勢，目前已在全球 100% 上線。消費者正與 App 互動，並探索我們全新價值主張的廣度。雖然仍在早期階段，初步結果顯示，新 App 使消費者探索我們優惠與促銷組合的行為提升 25 倍、首次使用者進行加密貨幣交易的比例提升 15%，同時也帶動我們現金卡（cash card）註冊提升 35%。此外，數位錢包使用者的每帳戶平均營收是僅使用結帳功能使用者的兩倍。我們預期明年將推出更多功能，包括股票投資能力。看到市場對我們 App 的初期正面反應令人振奮；我們將持續精進並擴充其功能，協助消費者在日益數位化且互聯的生活型態中更順暢地使用。

Venmo continues to achieve milestones and break records and is on track to deliver $900 million in revenue this year. With more than 80 million customers and $240 billion in run rate TPV, Venmo's scale is on par with PayPal's entire U.S. franchise in 2016. Venmo's customers are adopting more and more products, and we are seeing accelerating momentum with our new product introductions.

Venmo 持續達成里程碑並刷新紀錄，且有望在今年實現 9 億美元營收。Venmo 擁有超過 8,000 萬名客戶，且以年化交易支付總額（TPV）2,400 億美元計，其規模已可與 PayPal 於 2016 年在美國的整體業務相當。Venmo 的客戶正在採用越來越多的產品，而我們也看到新產品推出帶來的動能正在加速。

Even with all these growth and these impressive accomplishments, we are just at the start of Venmo's commerce journey and we could not be more pleased about joining forces with Amazon. We expect Venmo to be transaction margin-positive this year, while still growing its P2P business at very healthy rates.

即便在如此成長與亮眼成就之下，我們仍只是處於 Venmo 商務旅程的起點，並且對於與 Amazon 攜手合作感到無比振奮。我們預期 Venmo 今年將達成交易毛利轉正（transaction margin-positive），同時其 P2P 業務仍將以非常健康的速度成長。

The back half of 2021 was always going to be the low point of our revenue growth this year, and we are appropriately cautious as we enter Q4 and as we think about 2022. We are seeing the impact of global supply chain shortages in our merchant base. Consumer confidence has weakened with the absence of stimulus payments. And with the economy reopening, more people may be likely to do their holiday shopping in-store as confidence in delivery logistics is depressed from last year. And of course, we still feel the impacts of eBay's managed payments migration over the next few quarters, although at a lessening rate.

2021 年下半年原本就會是我們今年營收成長的低點，因此在進入第四季以及展望 2022 年時，我們保持適度審慎。我們在商戶基礎中看到了全球供應鏈短缺的影響。在缺少刺激金發放的情況下，消費者信心已轉弱。此外，隨著經濟重新開放，因相較去年對配送物流的信心下降，更多人可能傾向於在實體店進行節日採購。當然，未來幾季我們仍會感受到 eBay 受管支付（managed payments）遷移的影響，儘管影響程度將逐步減弱。

Almost all of these issues are temporal. And consequently, we expect our revenues will accelerate throughout next year and we remain confident in our medium-term guidance.

上述幾乎所有問題都屬於短期性。因此，我們預期明年全年營收將逐步加速成長，並且對我們的中期指引仍然充滿信心。

I'd like to spend a few moments on the recent rumors that made their way through the news. We participate in a rapidly moving industry. It's quite clear that consumers and merchants prefer a more connected digital lifestyle that encompasses financial services, shopping, payments and commerce. Our market research and that of others strongly supports the vision of a more connected economy. And PayPal clearly has the brand trust, regulatory relationships and scale to be a meaningful leader in the digital economy.

我想花幾分鐘談談近期在新聞中流傳的傳聞。我們身處一個快速變動的產業。很明顯，消費者與商戶偏好更緊密連結的數位生活型態，涵蓋金融服務、購物、支付與商務。我們以及其他機構的市場研究都強力支持「更互聯的經濟」這一願景。而 PayPal 顯然具備品牌信任、監管關係與規模，足以成為數位經濟中的重要領導者。

Exploring all potential opportunities to enhance shareholder value is our responsibility. But obviously, only a select few deals will meet our very strict financial, strategic and capital allocation criteria. We are fortunate to be a market leader in an environment with so many potential opportunities and operate in an industry with a number of favorable tailwinds. We will continue to execute against our game plan and responsibly explore the options in our rapidly evolving ecosystem so that we remain the leader we are today in tomorrow's world.

探索所有可能提升股東價值的機會是我們的責任。但顯然，只有極少數交易能符合我們非常嚴格的財務、策略與資本配置標準。我們很幸運能在充滿潛在機會的環境中成為市場領導者，並且身處一個具備多項有利順風的產業。我們將持續依照既定計畫執行，並在快速演進的生態系中負責任地探索各種選項，確保我們在明日世界中仍能維持今日的領導地位。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to John.

接下來，我把電話會議交給 John。

Thanks, Dan. I'd like to start by thanking our customers, partners and employees for helping us deliver a solid quarter. We're now reporting our results for the seventh quarter since the pandemic began, and it's remarkable to take a step back and reflect on everything that we've accomplished during this dynamic and unprecedented time.

謝謝你，Dan。我想先感謝我們的客戶、合作夥伴與員工，協助我們交出穩健的一季表現。自疫情開始以來，這是我們第七個季度公布業績；回頭反思在這段充滿變動且前所未有的時期所達成的一切，令人印象深刻。

There's been a profound and enduring shift in global commerce and consumer behavior, which has significantly expanded our addressable opportunity. The powerful and accelerating secular tailwinds of increasing e-commerce penetration and cash displacement have helped to advance our leadership position in payments.

全球商務與消費者行為出現了深刻且持久的轉變，顯著擴大了我們可觸及的機會。電子商務滲透率提升與現金替代（cash displacement）等強勁且加速的長期趨勢，推動我們在支付領域的領導地位更上一層樓。

To give you a better sense of the scale of growth we've experienced, it took 20 years for PayPal to reach $600 billion in annual payment volume, which occurred in 2019. Only 2 years later, we crossed $1.2 trillion. Relative to 2019, we've seen significant growth across our key performance indicators, including active accounts, engagement, TPV, revenue, EPS and free cash flow.

為了讓各位更清楚我們所經歷的成長規模，PayPal 花了 20 年才在 2019 年達到年度支付交易量 6,000 億美元。僅僅 2 年後，我們就突破了 1.2 兆美元。相較於 2019 年，我們在多項關鍵績效指標上都看到顯著成長，包括活躍帳戶、使用黏著度、TPV、營收、每股盈餘（EPS）與自由現金流。

At the same time, we're operating in a complex environment. The macroeconomic landscape is currently characterized by varying rates of reopening activity globally and influenced by short-term supply chain challenges, inflationary pressures and concerns related to consumer sentiment. These factors contribute to a backdrop that continues to make forecasting more challenging.

同時，我們也在一個複雜的環境中營運。目前的總體經濟情勢呈現全球各地重啟活動步調不一，並受到短期供應鏈挑戰、通膨壓力以及與消費者情緒相關的疑慮影響。這些因素共同造成的背景，使得預測工作持續更具挑戰性。

Our third quarter performance demonstrates the strength of our diversified platform, our global reach and the scalability of our business. Notably, we delivered these results against tough year-over-year comparisons, and in the quarter, where we face the most acute pressure from eBay's payments transition.

我們第三季的表現展現了多元化平台的實力、全球覆蓋範圍以及業務的可擴展性。值得注意的是，我們是在嚴峻的年對年比較基期下交出這些成果，且本季正是我們承受 eBay 支付轉換壓力最為明顯的季度。

For the quarter, we're reporting revenue of $6.2 billion, representing growth of 13% on both a spot and currency-neutral basis. eBay Marketplaces revenue declined 67% to $235 million and contributed less than 4% of total revenue versus approximately 13% last year. Excluding eBay, revenue grew 25% year-over-year and 26% on average for the last 2 years. This 2-year compound annual growth rate is particularly notable. Throughout 2021, this growth rate has been consistently strong at 25% and 26% in the first and second quarters, respectively.

本季我們公布營收為 62 億美元，按即期匯率與固定匯率（currency-neutral）基礎計算皆成長 13%。eBay Marketplace 營收下滑 67% 至 2.35 億美元，對總營收的貢獻不到 4%，而去年約為 13%。若排除 eBay，營收年增 25%，且過去兩年的平均成長率為 26%。這個兩年期複合年成長率（CAGR）尤其值得關注。在 2021 年全年，該成長率一直維持強勁，第一季與第二季分別為 25% 與 26%。

I would also like to provide some context for our performance relative to our expectations when we provided third quarter guidance in late July. First, travel volumes strengthened in June and July. This trend then reversed in August and September due to concerns related to the Delta variant. Second, back-to-school spending was somewhat softer than we had expected. While our overall performance was well within our guidance, we saw moderation towards the tail end of the quarter and exited at a lower growth rate than we had predicted.

我也想就我們的表現相對於 7 月下旬提供的第三季指引，補充一些背景。第一，旅遊交易量在 6 月與 7 月走強。但由於對 Delta 變異株的擔憂，這一趨勢在 8 月與 9 月出現反轉。第二，返校季支出略低於我們的預期。雖然整體表現仍完全落在指引範圍內，但我們在季度尾端看到成長趨緩，並以低於我們原先預測的成長率結束本季。

In the third quarter, transaction revenue grew 10% to $5.6 billion. This growth rate reflects the steep decline in eBay revenue in the quarter. Excluding eBay, transaction revenue grew 23%.

第三季交易營收成長 10% 至 56 億美元。此成長率反映了本季 eBay 營收的大幅下滑。若排除 eBay，交易營收成長 23%。

Other value-added services revenue grew 50% to $575 million. This performance was driven by increased revenue from Synchrony and accelerated recognition of loan servicing fees from the PPP program.

其他加值服務營收成長 50% 至 5.75 億美元。此表現主要由 Synchrony 帶來的營收增加，以及 PPP 計畫貸款服務費用的加速認列所驅動。

In the third quarter, total take rate was 1.99%, consistent with the second quarter and a decline of 22 basis points from last year. The mix effect of eBay contributed to approximately 55% of this decline. The blended take rate on eBay volumes this quarter was 2.43% compared to 4% in Q3 last year. The remainder of the decline was primarily driven by reduced currency volatility in the quarter, which resulted in a lower growth rate in foreign exchange fees as well as merchant mix and growth in bill payment volumes. The 25 basis point decline in transaction take rate was driven by these same factors.

第三季總抽成率（take rate）為 1.99%，與第二季一致，較去年下降 22 個基點。其中 eBay 的組合效應約占這一下降幅度的 55%。本季 eBay 交易量的加權平均抽成率為 2.43%，而去年第三季為 4%。其餘下降主要來自本季匯率波動降低，導致外匯手續費成長率較低，以及商戶組合變化與帳單支付交易量成長。交易抽成率下降 25 個基點亦由相同因素所致。

The third quarter was another strong quarter for volume-based expense performance. Transaction expense as a rate of TPV was 83 basis points, an increase of 1 basis point versus last year. Transaction losses improved 4 basis points and represented 9 basis points as a rate of TPV. This level of loss performance is consistent with last quarter, matching the lowest transaction loss rate in our history.

第三季在以交易量為基礎的費用表現方面再度展現強勁。交易費用占 TPV 的比率為 83 個基點，較去年增加 1 個基點。交易損失改善 4 個基點，交易損失占 TPV 的比率為 9 個基點。此損失表現水準與上季一致，並持平於我們歷史最低的交易損失率。

In the quarter, loan origination activity increased and we ended Q3 with $3.7 billion in net receivables, representing sequential growth of 13% and 43% growth relative to last year. Growth in our short-term installment pay portfolio was the primary driver of this increase. Strong performance of our loan portfolio, more stability in macroeconomic trends and the mix of shorter duration originations from our installment pay products resulted in our reserve coverage ratio declining to 11.6% from 14.9% at the end of the second quarter.

本季貸款發放活動增加，我們在第三季末的淨應收款項為 37 億美元，較前一季成長 13%，較去年同期成長 43%。我們的短期分期付款（installment pay）組合成長是推動此增幅的主要因素。我們的貸款組合表現強勁、總體經濟趨勢更趨穩定，以及分期付款產品帶來較短天期的放款組合，使得我們的備抵覆蓋率由第二季末的 14.9% 下降至 11.6%。

The net effect of credit provisioning on credit losses in the quarter, inclusive of originations and reserve releases, resulted in a benefit of $25 million. And year-to-date, we released $300 million in reserves. Overall, volume-based expenses grew 20% and represented 46% of revenue, resulting in a transaction margin of 54.2%.

本季信用損失的信用提列（包含新增放款與準備金釋出）的淨影響，帶來 2,500 萬美元的利益。而年初至今，我們已釋出 3 億美元的準備金。整體而言，以交易量為基礎的費用成長 20%，占營收 46%，使交易毛利率為 54.2%。

I'd now like to cover our non-transaction-related operating expenses. These expenses increased 17%, representing 30% of revenue. In the third quarter, our rapid pace of innovation continued. We had an exciting cadence of product introductions, including our new digital wallet apps for both PayPal and Venmo, the launch of crypto by wholesale in the U.K., our goods and services P2P experience in Venmo and Cash Back to Crypto with the Venmo credit card.

接下來我想說明我們與交易無關的營運費用。這些費用增加 17%，占營收 30%。第三季我們持續以快速步伐推動創新。我們以令人振奮的節奏推出多項產品，包括 PayPal 與 Venmo 的全新數位錢包 App、在英國推出面向批發客戶的加密貨幣服務、Venmo 的商品與服務 P2P 體驗，以及搭配 Venmo 信用卡的「現金回饋轉加密貨幣（Cash Back to Crypto）」功能。

To support and advance our key initiatives, we continue to invest aggressively in technology and development and sales and marketing, including increased spending on customer acquisition and engagement strategies. These expense buckets drove 70% of the increase in non-transaction-related operating expenses.

為了支持並推進我們的關鍵計畫，我們持續在技術與開發以及銷售與行銷方面積極投資，包括增加在客戶獲取與互動策略上的支出。這些費用類別貢獻了與交易無關的營運費用增幅的 70%。

On a non-GAAP basis, operating income was essentially flat to last year and our operating margin was 23.8%. And on a 2-year basis, the compound annual growth rate for operating income was 20%.

以非 GAAP 基礎計算，營業利益與去年幾乎持平，營業利益率為 23.8%。以兩年期基礎計算，營業利益的複合年成長率為 20%。

For the quarter, non-GAAP EPS grew 4% to $1.11. This includes an approximate $0.29 per share headwind from the decline in eBay Marketplaces' transaction margin dollars. We ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and investments of $20 billion. In addition, free cash flow grew 20% to $1.3 billion, representing 21% of revenue.

本季非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）成長 4% 至 1.11 美元。其中包含因 eBay Marketplaces 交易毛利金額下降所帶來約每股 0.29 美元的不利影響。本季末我們的現金、約當現金與投資合計為 200 億美元。此外，自由現金流成長 20% 至 13 億美元，占營收 21%。

I'd now like to discuss our outlook for the remainder of 2021 as well as our preliminary thoughts for 2022. For 2021, we now expect revenue to be in the range of $25.3 billion to $25.4 billion, an increase of approximately 18% from last year. This represents a 2-year compound annual growth rate of 19%. And excluding eBay, we now expect 2021 revenue to grow 28%.

接下來我想談談我們對 2021 年剩餘期間的展望，以及對 2022 年的一些初步看法。就 2021 年而言，我們目前預期營收將落在 253 億至 254 億美元區間，較去年增加約 18%。這相當於兩年期複合年成長率 19%。若排除 eBay，我們目前預期 2021 年營收將成長 28%。

We expect our operating margin to be in line to last year, which was the highest in our history. This performance reflects our strategic investment spend throughout the year as well as the negative transaction margin dynamics resulting from eBay, offset by the benefit from the release of reserves.

我們預期營業利益率將與去年大致一致，而去年是我們歷史上最高水準。此表現反映我們全年策略性投資支出，以及 eBay 所造成的交易毛利動態不利影響；同時也受到準備金釋出帶來的利益所抵銷。

We now expect non-GAAP EPS for the year to be approximately $4.60, a 19% increase on top of the 31% growth last year. And on a 2-year basis, this is 25% growth. In addition, we expect to generate approximately $5.2 billion in free cash flow, representing $0.21 of free cash flow for every $1 of revenue we earn.

我們目前預期全年非 GAAP EPS 約為 4.60 美元，在去年成長 31% 的基礎上再增加 19%。以兩年期基礎計算，這相當於成長 25%。此外，我們預期將產生約 52 億美元的自由現金流，等同於每賺取 1 美元營收可產生 0.21 美元的自由現金流。

As a result of this update to our full year guidance, we expect fourth quarter revenue to be in the range of $6.85 billion to $6.95 billion. This represents approximately 13% growth at the midpoint. We also expect $1.12 in non-GAAP EPS, representing 4% growth.

基於此次對全年指引的更新，我們預期第四季營收將落在 68.5 億至 69.5 億美元區間。以區間中點計算，約成長 13%。我們也預期非 GAAP EPS 為 1.12 美元，約成長 4%。

While the impact from eBay's payments migration came in consistent with our expectations for the quarter, relative to the beginning of the year, the headwind increased significantly. Until recently, we believe we could absorb this additional pressure and still deliver on our prior guidance. And while we came within our revenue expectations for the third quarter, the contributors to our revenue growth were somewhat different than what we had expected going into the quarter.

雖然 eBay 付款遷移帶來的影響與我們對本季的預期一致，但相較於年初，逆風顯著加大。直到最近，我們仍認為可以吸收這額外壓力，並仍能達成先前的指引。儘管第三季營收落在我們的預期範圍內，但推動營收成長的貢獻來源，與我們在進入本季時的預期有所不同。

Toward the end of the quarter, we also began to see growth rates come in a little lower than planned. We're off to a solid start in the fourth quarter, but growth rates still remain slightly below our prior expectations. In addition, retail supply chain and labor market concerns, which may impact the important holiday season, have led us to adopt a more cautious stance for the fourth quarter. That said, in recent days, we've seen improvement.

在本季接近尾聲時，我們也開始看到成長率略低於原先規劃。我們在第四季開局表現穩健，但成長率仍略低於先前預期。此外，零售供應鏈與勞動市場的疑慮可能影響重要的假期旺季，促使我們對第四季採取更為審慎的立場。話雖如此，近幾天我們已看到改善。

At this point in time, it's difficult to say definitively whether these stronger turns will persist throughout the quarter or if this improvement is a pull forward of consumer holiday activity. Relative to the guidance provided at the start of 2021, we now expect revenue to be about 0.5% lower for the year despite much more pressure from eBay than we had initially expected. Adjusting for the additional pressure to revenue growth from eBay, our revised 2021 guidance is actually ahead of the outlook we provided at the start of the year.

就目前而言，很難明確判斷這些較強勁的趨勢是否會在整個季度持續，或這項改善是否只是消費者假期活動的提前發生。相較於 2021 年初所提供的指引，儘管 eBay 帶來的壓力遠高於我們最初預期，我們目前仍預期全年營收約低 0.5%。若就 eBay 對營收成長帶來的額外壓力進行調整，我們修訂後的 2021 年指引其實高於年初所提供的展望。

In providing quarterly and annual guidance since July of last year, our goal has been to responsibly balance transparency with reliability and certainty. At the same time, we've also tried to emphasize the complexity of forecasting in this environment. We are taking what we view to be a prudent step in adjusting our outlook. But let me be very clear, our key strategic initiatives are on track and performing very well. The initial response to our new digital wallet experiences has been very strong, and the implementation of our new headline pricing in the U.S. has been successful with no discernible impact to merchant activity.

自去年 7 月以來在提供季度與年度指引時，我們的目標一直是在透明度與可靠性、確定性之間負責任地取得平衡。同時，我們也試圖強調在此環境下進行預測的複雜性。我們正在採取我們認為審慎的一步來調整展望。但我要非常清楚地說，我們的關鍵策略性計畫進度如期，且表現非常好。市場對我們全新數位錢包體驗的初步反應非常強勁，而我們在美國導入新的主打定價（headline pricing）也相當成功，對商戶活動未見可辨識的影響。

The underlying strength, diversification and resilience of our business on an absolute level and relative to pre-pandemic are unassailable and position us to remain on offense regardless of short-term headwinds. Our ability to sustainably deliver strong growth at our scale is indicative of the network effects of our business and our competitive positioning as a global leader in digital payments at the intersection of the powerful secular tailwinds of e-commerce penetration and cash displacement has never been stronger.

我們業務在絕對層面以及相較於疫情前的根本實力、多元化與韌性無可置疑，使我們即使面對短期逆風也能持續採取進攻姿態。我們能在目前規模下持續交付強勁成長，顯示出我們業務的網路效應，以及我們作為全球數位支付領導者的競爭定位；在電商滲透率提升與現金替代等強勁長期趨勢的交會點上，我們的優勢從未如此強大。

As it relates to our expectations for 2022, we'd like to share some of our initial thoughts and the assumptions we're making for internal planning purposes. We are currently in the midst of our budget resource and investment planning process for next year. In addition, how we exit the year as well as the status of some of the exogenous factors that Dan and I have already discussed are also important inputs for the year ahead.

關於我們對 2022 年的預期，我們想分享一些初步想法，以及我們為內部規劃所採用的假設。我們目前正處於明年度預算資源與投資規劃流程之中。此外，我們如何結束今年，以及 Dan 和我先前已討論過的一些外生因素的狀態，也都是影響明年規劃的重要輸入。

On a preliminary basis, for 2022, we expect revenue growth in the high teens. If we had to put a point on it today, we'd likely anchor it at about 18%. It's also important to appreciate our expected trajectory of revenue growth. Due to the cadence of eBay's payments migration as well as the stimulus measures earlier this year, we expect the first quarter next year to have more difficult comps and be our lowest growth quarter.

以初步估計，對於 2022 年，我們預期營收成長將落在高十幾個百分點。如果今天必須給出一個具體數字，我們可能會以約 18% 作為基準。同時也很重要的是要理解我們預期的營收成長軌跡。由於 eBay 付款遷移的節奏，以及今年稍早的刺激措施，我們預期明年第一季的比較基期將更具挑戰，並將是我們成長最低的一季。

Our plans are for revenue growth to then accelerate through the year and to exit 2022 at a revenue growth rate in line with or ahead of our medium-term guidance. Similar to 2021, we expect that our growth rates will exceed industry growth rates by a healthy margin. Given the ongoing planning that we're still doing, we will guide EPS growth when we report Q4 results early next year.

我們的規劃是，營收成長將在年度中逐步加速，並在 2022 年底以符合或高於我們中期指引的營收成長率作結。與 2021 年類似，我們預期我們的成長率將以相當健康的幅度超越產業成長率。鑑於我們仍在進行中的規劃工作，我們將在明年初公布第四季業績時提供 EPS 成長指引。

That said, I'd like to provide some color on how we're thinking about it. We see significant investment opportunities across our key priorities. In the past 2 years, we've accelerated our pace of product innovation to better serve our growing network of more than 400 million consumer and merchant accounts. We are investing to advance our product road map, increase our relevance for customers and drive daily engagement. And to support these initiatives, we expect our non-transaction-related expenses to grow in the high single digits in 2022 on a base that will grow 20% this year.

話雖如此，我想補充一些我們思考方式的背景說明。我們在各項關鍵優先事項上看到顯著的投資機會。過去兩年，我們加快產品創新的步伐，以更好地服務我們持續成長、超過 4 億個消費者與商戶帳戶的網路。我們正投資以推進產品路線圖、提升對客戶的相關性並帶動每日互動。為了支持這些計畫，我們預期 2022 年非交易相關費用將在高個位數百分比成長；而其基期在今年將成長 20%。

It's also important to note 2 factors that will have an impact on our EPS growth next year. First, we will lap the benefit we realized from the release of the credit reserve this year. And second, we expect our effective tax rate to increase from the lapping of onetime favorable tax adjustments. We expect these 2 items to result in an approximate 10-point headwind to non-GAAP earnings growth in 2022.

同時也要注意，明年有兩項因素將影響我們的 EPS 成長。第一，我們將不再享有今年因釋放信用準備金所帶來的利益（基期效應）。第二，由於一次性有利稅務調整的基期效應，我們預期有效稅率將上升。我們預期這兩項因素將使 2022 年非 GAAP 盈利成長面臨約 10 個百分點的逆風。

That said, we remain very confident in the medium-term guidance we provided at our Investor Day earlier this year. We're witnessing the pull forward of e-commerce and displacement of cash continuing at an undiminished pace even as reopening the curves. It's also true that the most difficult year in the transition away from eBay will be largely behind us as we move into 2022, and we expect our revenue and TPV growth rates to accelerate. We believe that investing in our business is more important than ever before given the opportunities we see in front of us. And while we certainly expect our margins to increase over the long term, we don't want to be so overly focused on that from one quarter or one year to the next, then we don't invest appropriately.

即便如此，我們仍對今年稍早投資人日所提供的中期指引非常有信心。即使在重新開放的情況下，我們仍看到電子商務的提前滲透以及現金被取代的趨勢，以不減的速度持續。同樣地，隨著我們邁入 2022 年，從 eBay 轉型過程中最艱難的一年將大致在我們身後，我們預期營收與 TPV 成長率將加速。鑑於我們眼前所見的機會，我們相信投資於業務比以往任何時候都更重要。而且，雖然我們確實預期長期而言利潤率會提升，但我們不希望在每一季或每一年之間過度聚焦於此，以致於無法做出適當的投資。

We are playing in this space to win. We are well positioned to capture the immense opportunity ahead and see a clear path to achieving our financial and strategic objectives. Our powerful 2-sided platform focused on execution and mission-driven culture backed by the tailwinds of digital commerce set us up for success now and in the years to come.

我們在這個領域是為了勝出而競爭。我們具備良好定位以掌握前方龐大的機會，並清楚看到達成我們財務與策略目標的路徑。我們強大的雙邊平台、以執行為核心與使命導向的文化，再加上數位商務的順風，讓我們在當下以及未來多年都能取得成功。

Before I turn it back over to the operator for Q&A, I would like to spend a moment discussing our approach to capital allocation. Our business is characterized by its very powerful cash flow generation. Since separation, we generated approximately $22 billion in free cash flow. We've returned nearly $10.5 billion in cash to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and allocated approximately $13 billion in cash to acquisitions and investments. We remain committed to both disciplined capital allocation and to balancing organic and inorganic growth investing to drive shareholder value creation. Inorganic opportunities are accelerating through our growth plans and to achieving our long-term aspirations. It's important to note that our medium-term outlook does not rely on acquisitions. At the same time, we will continue to be opportunistic in executing our strategic priorities, shaping the future of payments and advancing our leadership position.

在我把時間交回給接線員進行問答之前，我想花一點時間談談我們的資本配置方式。我們的業務特徵在於極為強勁的現金流創造能力。自分拆以來，我們已產生約 220 億美元的自由現金流。我們已透過股票回購向股東返還近 105 億美元現金，並將約 130 億美元現金配置於併購與投資。我們仍致力於兼顧嚴謹的資本配置，以及在有機與無機成長投資之間取得平衡，以推動股東價值創造。無機機會正隨著我們的成長計畫而加速，並有助於實現我們的長期願景。需要強調的是，我們的中期展望並不依賴併購。同時，我們將持續把握機會來執行策略優先事項、塑造支付的未來並推進我們的領導地位。

With that, I will turn it back to the operator. Operator, please go ahead.

接下來，我把時間交回給接線員。接線員，請開始。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

(接線員指示) 第一個問題來自 JPMorgan 的 Tien-Tsin Huang。

Really exciting to hear about the Amazon news. I know there's a lot to talk about here, but I wanted to ask on the market rumors on Pinterest, if you don't mind. And I know you're not pursuing a deal at this time, but just wanted to ask if your appetite to do a large deal is still there? And if your longer-term outlook and just on adding any assets like that with different revenue sources like advertising -- I know, John, you just said you don't -- you're not counting on M&A for midterm, just thinking longer term here.

聽到 Amazon 的消息真的令人振奮。我知道這裡有很多可以談，但如果你不介意，我想問一下市場上關於 Pinterest 的傳聞。我知道你們目前並未推進任何交易，但我想確認一下，你們對進行一筆大型交易的意願是否仍在？以及從更長期的角度來看，加入那類具有不同營收來源（例如廣告）的資產，對你們的長期展望會有什麼影響——我知道，John，你剛才提到你們——你們中期並不仰賴併購，只是我在這裡從更長期的角度思考。

Yes. I'll start off on that and then John can chime in on this. Let me just take one step back and start a little bit with the big picture because that may help put everything into context.

是的。我先回答這個問題，然後 John 也可以補充。我先退一步，從更宏觀的角度談起，因為這可能有助於把所有事情放在脈絡中理解。

Look, we're obviously focused on becoming an essential everyday app for consumers, and that's on the consumer side. And on the merchant side, we want to provide a comprehensive platform for merchants to participate in the digital economy, and that includes everything from consumers engaging at the beginning of their shopping journey to purchase and post-purchase.

你看，我們顯然專注於成為消費者日常不可或缺的 App，這是在消費者端。而在商戶端，我們希望提供一個全面的平台，讓商戶能參與數位經濟；其中涵蓋從消費者在購物旅程一開始的互動，到購買以及購後各環節。

And if you look at all of the acquisitions that we've done over the past 5 years, they kind of play into that overall strategy, whether it be what we've done internally with the PayPal app or QR codes; acquisitions like Honey, which have been essential to our shopping deals, tab fully integrated now into the PayPal app; Happy Returns, Chargehound, they're part of our post-purchase process that we'll integrate into our app and put into our platform for merchants; iZettle, Hyperwallet now is our payouts product going forward.

如果你回顧我們過去 5 年所做的所有收購，它們大致都契合這個整體策略：不論是我們在內部對 PayPal App 或 QR Code 所做的工作；像 Honey 這類收購，對我們的購物優惠至關重要，而其分頁現在已完全整合進 PayPal App；Happy Returns、Chargehound 則屬於我們的購後流程，我們會把它們整合進 App，並納入我們為商戶提供的平台；iZettle、Hyperwallet 則是我們未來的付款發放（payouts）產品。

So I'm very pleased with all the acquisitions we've done. They fit into our strategy. They are executing, many of them well above what we initially thought. Some were delayed in terms of their integration for various reasons. But overall really, I'm pleased with the way our acquisition and acquisition strategy has gone and the integration into our strategy.

因此，我對我們所做的所有收購都非常滿意。它們符合我們的策略。它們正在執行，其中許多的表現甚至遠高於我們最初的預期。有些因各種原因在整合上有所延遲。但整體而言，我對我們的併購、併購策略，以及其與我們策略的整合方式感到滿意。

The truth is we review hundreds of potential acquisitions every single year, and we put every single one of them through a very strict set of strategic financial integration filters. And we look at like, are we going to buy, build or partner? And John and I have been here now for -- well, I've been here a little over 7 years, he's been here closing in on that -- and we've never done a large acquisition so far.

事實上，我們每年都會審視數百個潛在收購案，並把每一個都放進一套非常嚴格的策略、財務與整合篩選機制中。我們也會評估：我們是要買、要自己做（build），還是要合作（partner）？而 John 和我在這裡已經——嗯，我在這裡超過 7 年，他也快接近那個時間——到目前為止我們從未做過一筆大型收購。

And the reason for that -- and by the way, we look at a couple of those every year. There are very few that we look at, but we look at a couple every year, and they have a much higher hurdle rate than our smaller acquisitions. I mean, we want to look, is it going to be a distraction? How tough is the integration? We fully understand what it means to do a large acquisition versus a smaller acquisition. And in 7 years, we haven't done a single large acquisition because they haven't met any of our hurdles. So I'm not saying that we might never ever do that, but it's not a likely event as we look forward.

原因在於——順帶一提，我們每年也會看幾個那樣的案子。我們看的其實不多，但每年會看幾個，而它們的門檻報酬率遠高於我們的小型收購。我的意思是，我們會評估：這會不會分散注意力？整合有多困難？我們完全理解做大型收購與小型收購的差異意味著什麼。而在 7 年裡，我們沒有做過任何一筆大型收購，因為它們沒有符合我們的任何門檻。所以我不是說我們永遠不會做，但就我們往前看，這不太可能發生。

In our M&A philosophy, it remains the same. We're going to focus on high-quality assets that will accelerate our growth in areas that are more efficient than us doing it inorganically. And to your question specifically, we don't need to do something large to -- or small, frankly -- to deliver on our medium-term guidance. All of our acquisitions are supplemental to our medium-term guidance. And clearly, we are going to be acquisitive going forward.

在我們的併購（M&A）理念上，仍然是一樣的。我們將聚焦於高品質資產，這些資產能在某些領域加速我們的成長，而且相較於我們以非有機方式自行推進，效率更高。就你具體的問題而言，為了達成我們的中期指引，我們不需要做一筆很大的交易——坦白說，也不需要做一筆很小的交易。我們所有的收購都只是對我們中期指引的補充。而且很明確地，我們未來會持續進行收購。

I mean, we've got an incredibly strong balance sheet, $20 billion of cash and cash-like investments on it. We're generating between $5 billion and $6 billion a year of free cash flow. But we are going to maintain the same strict and disciplined manner that we look at acquisitions and have looked at acquisitions over the last couple of years.

我的意思是，我們的資產負債表非常強勁，上面有200億美元的現金及類現金投資。我們每年產生約50億到60億美元的自由現金流。但我們會維持同樣嚴格且自律的方式來評估收購，就像過去幾年我們一直以來評估收購的方式一樣。

John, anything that you...

John，你有什麼想補充的……

Yes. I mean I think you covered a lot of it, Dan. I just would add, Tien-Tsin, that we laid out what we believe to be a very compelling case at our Investor Day around value creation over the next 5 years. That was entirely an organic plan and remains so.

是的。我的意思是，我覺得你已經涵蓋了很多了，Dan。我只想補充一點，Tien-Tsin，我們在投資人日（Investor Day）上提出了我們認為非常有說服力的論點，說明未來5年如何創造價值。那完全是一個有機成長計畫，而且現在仍然如此。

But that said, we don't want to sit here on our hands and think that that's good enough. If there are opportunities that are out there that create even more value creation, it's our responsibility to look at those. And so that's where deals of this size may come in sometimes, but that's what we take capital allocation with is a very serious activity for us and arguably one of the most important.

但話雖如此，我們不想坐在這裡袖手旁觀，覺得那樣就夠了。如果外面有能創造更多價值的機會，我們有責任去評估。因此，有時候就可能會出現這種規模的交易；而我們看待資本配置，是一項非常嚴肅的工作，並且可以說是最重要的工作之一。

And so as Dan said, we have a lot of rigor around that. And thus far, nothing has met those rigorous hurdles for us. But I think -- and the management team shares a belief that we have the same opportunity over the next 5 years to create value that we just realized over the last 5 years. But if we can do more than that, then we should do more than that. And so that's why we explore every opportunity, but the growth plans that we laid out in the early part of this year at our Investor Day are entirely organic.

所以如Dan所說，我們在這方面有非常嚴謹的流程。到目前為止，還沒有任何案子能達到我們嚴格的門檻。但我認為——而且管理團隊也相信——未來5年我們有同樣的機會創造價值，就像過去5年我們剛剛實現的那樣。但如果我們能做得更多，那我們就應該做得更多。因此我們會探索每一個機會，但我們在今年年初投資人日所提出的成長計畫完全是有機的。

Next question comes from the line of Colin Sebastian with Baird.

下一個問題來自Baird的Colin Sebastian。

Great. So pretty big news here with Amazon and Venmo integration, especially given how protective Amazon is over their checkout flow. So congrats there. And it might be helpful to expand a bit on what you talked about around the agreement such as are the economics with Amazon similar to other marketplace deals that you have in place? Are there opportunities to expand the relationship to other PayPal brands and services? And maybe when in 2022 we can expect Venmo to show up on the site?

很好。Amazon與Venmo整合是相當重大的消息，尤其考量到Amazon對其結帳流程的保護程度很高。所以恭喜。如果能再多談一點你提到的協議內容會很有幫助，例如：與Amazon的經濟條件是否與你們現有的其他市集合作案類似？是否有機會把合作關係擴展到其他PayPal品牌與服務？以及大概在2022年的什麼時候，我們可以預期在網站上看到Venmo？

Yes. You bet. Thanks, Colin. Good question. First of all, I'd say one of the things we talked about early on is being free of the restrictions of the eBay operating agreement. We're going to have the possibility to open us up to working with a number of marketplaces that we were previously prohibited from doing so. And you're seeing some of that, you're seeing what we're doing with Ali and AliExpress, that continues to expand in terms of the volumes there. We are getting closer and closer with Walmart. And Amazon is the latest example of us being able to team up with obviously an extremely significant player in the e-commerce space.

是的。當然。謝謝你，Colin。好問題。首先，我想說我們一開始談到的一件事，就是擺脫eBay營運協議的限制。我們將有可能對外開放，與多個先前被禁止合作的市集平台合作。你已經看到其中一些進展，例如我們與Ali和AliExpress的合作，相關交易量持續擴大。我們也與Walmart越來越接近。而Amazon則是最新的例子，顯示我們能與電商領域中極其重要的參與者攜手合作。

And what I really like about this is like eBay results are like a pig through the python right now, but these that we're talking about, right, are much more of a permanent nature. These are what will be with us going forward as eBay kind of is a temporal phenomenon working through our results. We're still working through the launch time frames. We're both eager to get this out into the marketplace, but we're still working those to. We obviously have large teams, each of us, on this. It is the beginning of a journey of our 2 companies teaming together. I wouldn't venture at this moment as to where we'll go together. We're both very focused on the substantial opportunity that there is with Venmo at checkout, and we couldn't be more pleased to be able to team with Amazon on this.

而我真正喜歡這點的是：eBay的結果現在就像「蟒蛇吞豬」一樣在我們的業績裡消化中，但我們現在談的這些合作，對吧，是更具長期性、也更偏永久性的。當eBay作為一種暫時性現象在我們的結果中逐步消退時，這些合作將會在未來持續伴隨我們。我們仍在推進上線時程的規劃。我們雙方都很希望能盡快推向市場，但時程仍在協調中。顯然，我們雙方各自都有大型團隊投入其中。這是我們兩家公司攜手合作旅程的起點。此刻我不會去推測我們未來會如何更進一步合作。我們雙方都非常專注於Venmo在結帳端所帶來的重大機會，而我們也非常高興能與Amazon在此合作。

Obviously, if you think about the amount of market share that Amazon has in the U.S., this quite substantially is -- increases the addressable market for Pay with Venmo. And Pay with Venmo is one of the key revenue drivers for Venmo going forward. I just -- as I think about the journey that Venmo has been on, this obviously is a punctuation point for sure. But even this year, Venmo will be transaction margin-positive. That is a major milestone for that team, right on track to deliver the $900 million and obviously exit the year at an accelerating growth rate. And this partnership with Amazon will no doubt take that to the next level.

顯然，如果你想到Amazon在美國擁有的市占率，這將相當大幅度地——提升「使用Venmo付款」（Pay with Venmo）的可服務市場。而「使用Venmo付款」是Venmo未來的關鍵營收驅動因素之一。我只是——當我回顧Venmo一路走來的歷程，這顯然是一個重要的里程碑。而且即使在今年，Venmo也將在交易毛利（transaction margin）層面轉為正值。這對那個團隊而言是重大里程碑，也正按計畫達成9億美元的目標，並且顯然在年底以加速的成長率收官。而與Amazon的這項合作無疑會把它推向下一個層級。

Colin, I'd just add real quickly that -- look, Dan and I both appreciate that the investor community probably is getting tired of us talking about eBay and eBay results, but arguably not more so than we are, but this is the other side of that coin. It's as simple as that. I mean, this would not be allowed had we not taken the steps that we had. And so we're quite excited about this and what it bodes for the future.

Colin，我再很快補充一下——你看，Dan和我都理解投資人社群可能已經聽膩了我們一直談eBay以及eBay的業績影響；但坦白說，可能我們自己比任何人都更膩。但這就是同一枚硬幣的另一面。事情就這麼簡單。我的意思是，如果我們沒有採取先前那些步驟，這件事是不可能被允許的。

Next question comes from the line of Lisa Ellis of MoffettNathanson.

下一個問題來自MoffettNathanson的Lisa Ellis。

I'm going to focus on the rollout of the new PayPal and Venmo app. Can you -- I know you made some comments in the prepared remarks, but can you elaborate a bit further and give a little more color on the early impact you're seeing maybe beyond user growth, engagement growth, et cetera, including maybe some aspects so far that have surprised you?

我想聚焦在新版PayPal與Venmo App的推出。你能不能——我知道你在事先準備的講稿裡有一些評論，但你能再多展開一點，提供更多早期影響的細節嗎？可能不只是在用戶成長、互動成長等等，還包括到目前為止有哪些面向讓你感到意外？

Yes. Thanks, Lisa. Good to hear your voice.

可以。謝謝你，Lisa。很高興聽到你的聲音。

So any time you put something substantial out into the market -- and this is really the first giant revamp that we've done of our PayPal consumer app, and it's pretty massive, complete redesign. Typically on that, so what you find is you've got declines in engagement as people kind of like work their way through discovery of it. And then what you have is over time, that, that really starts to accelerate, at least that's your hope.

所以每當你把一個重大的產品推向市場——而這其實是我們首次對PayPal消費者App進行如此大規模的改版，而且規模相當龐大，幾乎是全面重新設計。通常在這種情況下，你會看到互動度下滑，因為使用者需要一段時間去探索與熟悉。然後隨著時間推移，那種互動度會開始加速回升，至少這是你所希望看到的。

This has been completely the opposite of that, which is, I guess, biggest delay, I'm not sure it's a surprise to me, but we are seeing really meaningful lifts in terms of discoverability of the breadth of our product and service line right now. We talked about PayPal shopping, the full integration of Honey into the PayPal app. Honey now is completely mobile and not just desktop, and that's powering our whole tab of that. We've seen a 25x lift in people exploring that tab and starting to put deals into their wallets and that kind of thing. It's pretty amazing actually.

這完全與那相反；我想，最大的延遲——我不確定這對我來說是否算意外——但我們現在確實看到，在我們產品與服務線廣度的可發現性方面出現非常有意義的提升。我們談到 PayPal Shopping，以及將 Honey 完整整合進 PayPal App。Honey 現在已完全行動化，不再只限於桌面端，而這正在驅動我們整個該分頁的運作。我們看到有 25 倍的提升，更多人去探索那個分頁，並開始把優惠放進他們的錢包之類的。其實相當驚人。

And then on things like crypto, first-time user, once we did the app, went up by 15%. Our strongest week ever for first-time users was like last week. And we've had strong weeks for first-time user growth on that. But clearly, the new app is driving both discoverability and conversion on the crypto side.

再來像是加密貨幣方面，當我們推出新 App 後，首次使用者提升了 15%。我們史上首次使用者最強的一週大概就是上週。而且我們在首次使用者成長方面也連續出現強勁的週表現。但很明顯，新 App 正在同時推動加密貨幣端的可發現性與轉換率。

And then I'm quite excited about what's happening with cash card because cash card is kind of like a debit card, right? It links into the balance and it can be used offline and obviously online. And this is a big part of our omni-strategic thrust and to see that go up, those enrollments go up by 35%. And remember, this is really early days, right? We fully ramped in the middle of October globally, so this is early on. And I usually think of early on as, okay, how do we start to claw back to where we were and then start to move forward as customers get it? This was a leap forward.

另外，我對現金卡（cash card）的進展感到相當興奮，因為現金卡有點像簽帳金融卡，對吧？它連結到餘額，可在線下使用，當然也可在線上使用。這是我們全通路策略推進的一大部分，而看到它的申辦數成長 35%。而且要記得，這真的還在非常早期的階段，對吧？我們是在 10 月中旬才在全球全面加速推進，所以這才剛開始。我通常把「剛開始」想成：好，我們要怎麼先把表現拉回到原本的水準，然後隨著客戶理解後再往前推進。但這次是一次跳躍式的前進。

Look, there are a lot of things that we're going to do to improve the customer experience. We are putting [Fiserv] (corrected by company after the call) now into our bill payment, expanding our bill payment quite dramatically, expanding the usability and kind of just the simplicity of it. But each and every one of the products and services, we are looking at the feedback we're getting and just making small little changes to keep increasing.

你看，我們會做很多事情來改善客戶體驗。我們現在把 [Fiserv]（公司於會後更正）導入到我們的帳單支付中，並相當大幅度地擴展帳單支付，提升可用性，以及整體的簡潔性。但針對每一項產品與服務，我們都在看收到的回饋，並做一些小幅調整，讓表現持續提升。

This is going to be -- I didn't think it was going to be a big bang. It actually has turned out to be a relatively big bang on introduction, but I really think of this as evolutionary quarter by quarter by quarter.

這將會是——我原本不認為會是一次「大爆發」。實際上在推出時確實算是相對大的爆發，但我真的把它視為一季接一季、逐步演進的過程。

We will launch high-yield savings in the next several months, that will begin to ramp. We'll start to put on things like equity investing. We anticipate doing that next year. And there'll be more and more products and services to help customers engage more and more. And that's why like that ARPA of wallet users versus checkout-only, again, early, but to see that already leaping up to 2x that of checkout-only. John and I are quite excited about the impact of the initiatives that we're putting into place. And they are clearly going to drive a lot of growth for us as we look forward.

我們將在接下來幾個月推出高收益儲蓄，並開始逐步放量。我們也會開始加入像是股票投資等功能。我們預期明年會做這件事。而且還會有越來越多的產品與服務，幫助客戶更深、更頻繁地參與。這也是為什麼，像是錢包使用者相較於僅結帳使用者的 ARPA——同樣地，雖然還在早期——但看到它已經跳升到僅結帳使用者的 2 倍。John 和我對我們正在推動的各項計畫所帶來的影響感到相當興奮。而且很明顯，當我們展望未來時，這些將為我們帶來大量成長。

Next question comes from the line of David Togut of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

Looking at the third quarter KPIs, they're certainly strong and broadly in line with your 5-year guide. And you've called out some short-term factors and tough comparisons for taking guidance down for the fourth quarter and guiding 2022, at least your preliminary guide below the 5-year model. But when you look at 2022 in some of the shorter-term factors you've called out like supply chain issues and return of consumers more to the physical POS, how confident are you that some of these issues are actually shorter term versus potentially longer-lasting that might stretch into 2023?

從第三季的 KPI 來看，表現確實強勁，且大致符合你們的 5 年指引。你們也指出了一些短期因素與較具挑戰性的比較基期，因而下調第四季指引，並對 2022 年給出指引——至少你們的初步指引低於 5 年模型。但當你看 2022 年，以及你們提到的一些較短期因素，例如供應鏈問題、消費者更多回到實體 POS（銷售點），你們有多大信心認為其中一些問題確實是短期的，而不是可能更持久、甚至延伸到 2023 年？

Okay. David, let me talk very quickly about Q3. And then I'm going to have John talk about our Q4 guidance and our confidence in 2022.

好的。David，我先很快談一下第三季。接著我會請 John 談談我們對第四季的指引，以及我們對 2022 年的信心。

So you're right, actually, if you look at Q3, and let me just talk about revenue, TPV and maybe engagement as 3 metrics on that. Look, on -- the way that I think about our business right now is what's happening on our MS business because eBay is a temporal thing. It's just going through the system right now. It's less than 3% of our TPV, it's less than 4% of our revenues and drop. And so really, our business is our MS business going forward.

所以你說得對，實際上如果你看第三季——我就以營收、TPV（總支付金額）以及可能的互動度作為三個指標來談。你看——我現在看待我們業務的方式，是聚焦在我們的 MS 業務正在發生什麼，因為 eBay 是一個時間性的因素。它現在只是正在系統中逐步消化。它占我們 TPV 不到 3%，占我們營收不到 4%，而且還在下降。因此，往前看，我們真正的業務核心是 MS 業務。

And if I look at revenue growth, I think this is really interesting because I've examined this quite carefully. If I go back 5 years, if you look at our MS revenue growth, in Q3 of 2017, it was 24%; in 2018, in Q3, it was 17%; 2019, it was 23% then it jumps up to 26%; and in the middle of the pandemic, Q3 2020 and Q3 2021, this quarter, it's 25%. And so like people talk about like reopening stocks and all, like that isn't us.

如果我看營收成長，我覺得這非常有意思，因為我已經相當仔細地檢視過。如果我回溯 5 年，看看我們 MS 的營收成長：2017 年第三季是 24%；2018 年第三季是 17%；2019 年第三季是 23%，之後跳升到 26%；而在疫情期間的 2020 年第三季，以及 2021 年第三季（也就是本季）是 25%。所以像大家在談什麼「解封概念股」之類的——那不是我們。

Our MS business is going from strength to strength. We've seen a leap forward in digital, and that is continuing, if you look at it in our MS. And John will talk about it in Q4 and as we look next year.

我們的 MS 業務正持續由強轉更強。我們看到數位化出現跳躍式前進，而且這個趨勢仍在延續；如果你看我們的 MS 就能看出來。John 也會談到第四季以及我們展望明年的情況。

Same thing on TPV. TPV in Q3 of 2018, MS, now I'm talking about MS was 27%. It jumped up to 29%. Then in Q3 2020 jumped to 40%. And over that 40%, we're growing this quarter at 31%.

TPV 也是同樣的情況。2018 年第三季，MS（我現在談的是 MS）的 TPV 成長是 27%。之後跳升到 29%。再到 2020 年第三季跳到 40%。而在那個 40% 的高基期之上，我們本季仍成長 31%。

And so like these are all really, really strong numbers. And if I look at -- even like transactions, which I think is a really, really interesting, we did 4.9 billion transactions in Q3, this last quarter. If you go back a year ago, we did about 4 billion. We're almost up 1 billion transactions in a year in the quarter, and our transactions ex-eBay are up 31% year-over-year. Our TPA transactions for active double-digit growth for the second quarter in a row. Again, ex-eBay in the third quarter, our TPA was up 18%.

所以這些都是非常、非常強勁的數字。而如果我看——甚至像交易筆數，我覺得這也非常有意思——我們在上一季（第三季）做了 49 億筆交易。如果回到一年前，我們大約是 40 億筆。一年之內單季幾乎增加了 10 億筆交易，而且我們的交易筆數（不含 eBay）年增 31%。我們的 TPA 交易筆數已連續第二季維持雙位數成長。同樣地，第三季不含 eBay，我們的 TPA 年增 18%。

And so these are -- yes, of course, we get hit by some of these exogenous things that go on, but if I look at the strength of the core business, every single metric is way above even our forecast is way above our medium-term guidance. And that's kind of like what gives us just a ton of confidence. And we're obviously being, I think, appropriately cautious and conservative as we look forward at this time, but I feel like if I look at what the real part of our business is, every metric is trending pretty strongly right now.

所以這些——是的，當然，我們會受到一些外生因素的影響；但如果我看核心業務的強度，每一項指標都遠高於——甚至高於我們的預測，也遠高於我們的中期指引。而這正是讓我們非常有信心的原因。而且我認為，當我們在此刻展望未來時，我們顯然採取了適度謹慎與保守的態度；但如果我看我們業務真正的核心部分，每一項指標目前都呈現相當強勁的趨勢。

David, let me hit a couple of points here regarding some of the assumptions about our outlook. So first, with respect to the reopening of the economy, our basic assumption is that, that's sort of a slow and steady pace similar to what we've seen here more recently.

David，讓我在這裡針對我們對前景的一些假設，先談幾個重點。首先，就經濟重啟而言，我們的基本假設是，步調會是緩慢且穩健，類似於我們最近所看到的情況。

With respect to supply chain or labor shortages, look, I don't see a quick fix to that, so that could be with us for some period of time. And I think the pressure there is probably more acute on some of the SMB segment versus large enterprises, and so that is baked into our assumptions as well. We're also not going to have the benefit of stimulus next year or likely not based upon what we see today.

至於供應鏈或勞動力短缺，坦白說，我不認為會有快速的解方，所以這可能會伴隨我們一段時間。而且我認為這方面的壓力，對某些中小企業（SMB）客群可能比大型企業更為明顯，因此這也已納入我們的假設之中。另外，明年我們也不會再享有刺激措施的助益，或至少就我們目前所見，應該不太可能。

And then the last point I'd make is around eBay. eBay, if you think about the high teens mark that we put out there for revenue growth, the impact of eBay year-over-year in terms of a headwind is about 200 basis points if you just take what eBay represents in our business in 2021 compared to 2022. Said differently, though, if you were to exclude eBay in both years, the revenue growth is 22%. And so that's exceedingly strong and I think the best proxy for how to think about our business going forward.

最後一點我想談的是 eBay。eBay，如果你想想我們提出的營收成長「十幾個百分點」的目標，eBay 年對年帶來的逆風影響約為 200 個基點；這是單純以 eBay 在我們 2021 年相較 2022 年業務中的占比來看。換句話說，如果你把兩年都排除 eBay，營收成長是 22%。因此這非常強勁，我認為這也是思考我們未來業務走向的最佳替代指標。

And so wrapping all of that together and sort of tying it to where we stand right now with the guidance that we just gave today, if you go back to the beginning of the year and the guidance that we provided, 50 million net new actives, roughly $25.5 billion of revenue, we're effectively right there. And I think very, very importantly, that was the basis for the 5-year plan, the medium-term guidance that we laid out just a few weeks after that. And so that's a way of saying that we are right on track with what we laid out at the beginning of the year with our medium-term guidance.

把以上各點綜合起來，並連結到我們今天剛給出的指引、以及我們目前的狀況：如果你回到年初我們提供的指引——淨新增活躍帳戶 5,000 萬、營收約 255 億美元——我們基本上就落在那個水準。而且我認為非常、非常重要的是，那也是我們五年計畫的基礎，也就是我們在幾週後所提出的中期指引。因此這也等於是在說，我們在年初所提出的中期指引上，正按計畫推進。

Next question comes from the line of Darrin Peller with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Darrin Peller。

I just want to touch on the organic trends of the business, mainly the KPI, net new actives, and just maybe if you can give a little more color on the organic dynamics you're seeing now 1.5 years into COVID in terms of gross adds versus the churn levels?

我想稍微談一下業務的自然成長趨勢，主要是 KPI——淨新增活躍帳戶（net new actives）。也許你能否多補充一些你們在 COVID 之後 1.5 年、目前所看到的自然動能：例如新增（gross adds）相對於流失（churn）水準的情況？

We're also getting more questions on '22 guidance and some of the inputs there. You just touched on that, John, so thanks. But thinking about the underlying sort of user growth potential there, engagement potential, and then really just reminding us of your conviction and the drivers getting to 750 million of NNAs long term?

我們也收到更多關於 2022 年指引以及其中一些假設輸入的問題。John，你剛剛已經提到一些了，謝謝。但若從底層的使用者成長潛力、互動（engagement）潛力來看，另外也請你再提醒我們：你們對長期達到 7.5 億淨新增活躍帳戶（NNAs）的信心，以及推動因素是什麼？

Well, let me talk a little bit about NNAs. So 13.3 million in the quarter, up about 2 million from last quarter, growing 15% year-over-year, unlike a lot of companies that experienced growth in the off time and then are unwinding.

好，我先談一下 NNAs。本季為 1,330 萬，較上季增加約 200 萬，年增 15%；不同於許多公司在先前的特殊時期出現成長、之後又在回吐。

Our growth remains incredibly strong on the NNA side. I mean, think about it in the minute that we've been talking so far, Darren. We've got -- we put on about 100 consumers and 9 new merchants. We are putting on 1.5 consumers every second of the quarter, every 6 seconds we put on another merchant. It's really unbelievable. And if I look 5 years ago, and you remember this, 5 years ago, we put on 13 million net new actives for the year. This quarter alone, and we put on 110 million net new actives since January of 2020. And as we said, I think, in our press release, we expect to end the year north of 430 million actives on the platform. So obviously, continued strong growth.

我們在 NNA 方面的成長仍然非常強勁。我是說，Darren，想想看我們到目前為止談話的這一小段時間裡，我們已經——大約新增了 100 位消費者和 9 位新商戶。我們在本季每一秒新增 1.5 位消費者，每 6 秒就新增一位商戶。這真的令人難以置信。如果我回看 5 年前——你也記得——5 年前我們全年才新增 1,300 萬淨新增活躍帳戶。光是這一季就達到這個數字；而且自 2020 年 1 月以來，我們已新增 1.1 億淨新增活躍帳戶。並且如我們在新聞稿中所說，我們預期年底平台活躍帳戶將超過 4.3 億。所以顯然，成長仍然強勁。

But as we look forward to that $750 million, Darren, there are 2 places that our net new actives come from. One is top of the funnel, and top of the funnel is actually pretty strong right now and remain so. It's a kind of a must-have platform for merchants and consumers, and scale begets scale in this business. But as you get bigger and bigger, the bottom of the funnel becomes equally -- it's not even more important. And so reduction in churn becomes a really important element of our ability to get to the 750 million. That's why we're so excited about what we're seeing in terms of our TPA numbers, again, normalize it ex-eBay, up 18%. Last quarter, I think it was up 17%, double-digit growth even with eBay.

但展望達到 7.5 億這個目標，Darren，我們的淨新增活躍帳戶主要來自兩個地方。第一個是漏斗上端（top of the funnel），而目前漏斗上端其實相當強勁，且仍會維持如此。對商戶與消費者而言，這是一個「必備」的平台，而在這個業務中，規模會帶來規模（scale begets scale）。但當你越做越大，漏斗下端（bottom of the funnel）同樣——甚至更重要。因此，降低流失率（churn）會成為我們達到 7.5 億目標能力中的一個非常重要的要素。這也是為什麼我們對 TPA 數據所看到的表現感到非常振奮；同樣地，若排除 eBay 來做常態化處理，成長 18%。上季我記得是成長 17%，即使包含 eBay 也仍是雙位數成長。

And at 2 quarters in a row, some of the things I was talking to Lisa about in terms of the engagement on the app, those are things that the more people engaged, the more people get cash cards utilizing that service offline. We see halo effects inside the business. Buy Now, Pay Later, all of that actually affects churn rate. And if we can keep a consistent top of the funnel, maybe even improve that a little bit, but reduce our churn rate, you'll start to see net new actives actually accelerate going forward. And so we remain still quite confident in the 750 million, but that's what the drivers are of that, Darren.

而且連續兩季，我先前跟 Lisa 談到的一些事情——例如 App 上的互動程度——這些都會讓更多人更投入；更多人會申辦 Cash Card 並在離線場景使用該服務。我們在業務內部看到光環效應（halo effects）。先買後付（Buy Now, Pay Later）等所有這些，其實都會影響流失率。如果我們能維持漏斗上端的穩定，甚至再稍微提升，同時降低流失率，你就會開始看到淨新增活躍帳戶在未來實際加速。因此我們對 7.5 億仍然相當有信心，而這些就是其背後的驅動因素，Darren。

Next question comes from the line of James Faucette of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 James Faucette。

John, I know you kind of touched around this in your commentary, but if we think about all the irons and initiatives that you have in the fire right now, how should we think about kind of the medium-term progression of your operating margins? I know you also highlighted that you want to make investments, but just trying to make sure that we try to align our own expectations with how you're thinking about your planning purposes kind of going forward?

John，我知道你在評論中多少有提到，但如果我們把你目前同時推進的各項工作與計畫都納入考量，我們應該如何看待你們營業利潤率在中期的演進路徑？我也知道你強調你們想要投資，但我只是想確認，我們能把自己的預期與你們在未來規劃上的思考方式對齊。

Sure, James. It's good to speak with you.

當然可以，James。很高興和你交流。

Well, I'll start by saying that, and I would hope that people appreciate and agree with this, but I don't think there's ever been a more important time to invest in our business than right now. This is a precious opportunity that we have with some of the secular tailwinds. We're fortunate in that the margins in our business want to go up. We've demonstrated that we can scale at a very low marginal cost. We've got tremendous opportunities, some of which we talked about today, that give us confidence that over our planning horizon, our margins will go up. That's not something that I think we lose a ton of sleep about. Quite frankly, I think it's -- the more challenging dynamic is where to invest, where we can get that return that's expected.

我先說，我希望大家能理解並同意：我認為現在是投資我們業務最重要的時刻。在一些長期結構性順風（secular tailwinds）的推動下，我們正擁有一個難得的機會。我們很幸運，因為我們業務的利潤率本來就傾向於上升。我們已證明，我們可以在非常低的邊際成本下擴張規模。我們也有非常多的機會，其中一些我們今天已談到，讓我們有信心在我們的規劃期間內，利潤率會上升。這不是我認為需要非常擔心的事情。坦白說，我認為更具挑戰的動態在於：該投資在哪裡，才能取得符合預期的回報。

And if you think about the last couple of years being 2020 and this year 2021, our operating expenses have grown about 20% in each of those years. And that's not -- I would discourage you from thinking about that as sort of like onetime spend related to customer acquisition or something like that. There's a lot of engineering costs around people that are punching a keyboard to write code, and that's still with us today. So even as we talk about the high single-digit growth next year, that's on top of 2 years of 20% growth. But for us, it's also important not to spread ourselves too thin and to make sure that we are prioritizing appropriately and some of prioritizing involves say no to certain things as well.

如果你回想過去幾年，也就是 2020 年以及今年 2021 年，我們的營運費用在這兩年各自大約成長了 20%。而且我不建議你把這解讀為某種一次性支出，例如與客戶獲取相關之類的。其中有大量工程成本，來自那些敲鍵盤寫程式碼的人，而這些成本至今仍然存在。所以即便我們談到明年高個位數的成長，那也是建立在連續兩年 20% 成長的基礎之上。但對我們而言，同樣重要的是不要把戰線拉得太長，並確保我們適當地設定優先順序；而優先排序的一部分，也包括對某些事情說不。

And so I think we've laid out a pretty clear plan over the next few years with our focus on things like the digital wallet, building out commerce capabilities, continue to monetize Venmo that give us ample opportunity to invest. But as I noted in my remarks, we don't manage the business to have margin expansion for the next quarter or frankly, even for the next year. We're looking at how we create a company over the next 5 years that can have the same type of market value appreciation that we've experienced over the last 5. And the decisions that we make really just line up with that much more so than trying to maximize for any particular time period. And so maybe not directly answering your question, but our margins are going to go up over the long term, and we're not going to be handcuffed to doing that from one period to the next at the expense of like creating shareholder value.

因此我認為，我們已經就未來幾年的計畫提出相當清楚的藍圖，聚焦在數位錢包、擴建商務能力、持續將 Venmo 變現等，這些都給了我們充足的投資機會。但如同我在發言中提到的，我們並不是為了下一季、甚至坦白說也不是為了明年，就去管理公司以追求利潤率擴張。我們著眼的是如何在未來 5 年打造一家公司，能夠像過去 5 年一樣，擁有同等類型的市值增值。而我們所做的決策，更多是與此對齊，而不是試圖在任何特定期間把某個指標最大化。所以也許沒有直接回答你的問題，但我們的利潤率長期會上升；我們不會被迫在每一個期間之間都必須做到這點，並以犧牲創造股東價值為代價。

We have time for one last question. It comes from Jason Kupferberg of Bank of America.

我們還有時間再問最後一個問題。問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Jason Kupferberg。

I guess, you're now tracking to more of the lower end of the $50 million to $55 million target for the year, previously thought to be closer to the higher end. So I'm just wondering, is this some incremental softness in gross adds? Is it higher churn? A decline in new activations? And it seems like we may be down a little bit quarter-over-quarter in Q4, but normally, there's some positive seasonality. So I just wanted to get your take on what's going on with the NNAs.

我想，你們現在的走勢更接近全年 5,000 萬到 5,500 萬目標區間的下緣；先前則認為會更接近上緣。所以我想請教，這是總新增（gross adds）出現一些額外的疲軟嗎？是流失率（churn）更高嗎？還是新啟用（new activations）下滑？而且看起來第四季（Q4）可能會較上一季略為下降，但通常會有一些正向的季節性。所以我想聽聽你對 NNAs 目前狀況的看法。

Yes. Great question, Jason. Thank you for that.

是的。很好的問題，Jason。謝謝你。

If you remember, we started the year at $50 million, then we raised it $52 million to $55 million. And then we thought we'd be towards the higher end of the $52 million to $55. At this point, we're just being consistent with kind of our revenue guide as well.

如果你記得，我們年初的目標是 5,000 萬，之後我們把它上調到 5,200 萬到 5,500 萬。接著我們又認為會更接近 5,200 萬到 5,500 萬區間的上緣。目前我們只是讓它也與我們的營收指引保持一致。

We're going into the heart of the holiday, you're exactly right. If holiday season shapes up like it did last year, then we'll have more than $52 million organic because there'll be a lot more shopping. And if it doesn't, then we'll have a little bit less. So it's very consistent with kind of just being, I think, prudent and cautious given some of the trends that we're seeing and others are talking about, again, supply chain shortages, people can't shop in it. If consumer confidence is down, people do more in-store, we'll get less M&A than we typically might.

我們正進入假期旺季的核心時段，你說得完全沒錯。如果假期季的表現像去年一樣，那麼我們的自然成長（organic）會超過 5,200 萬，因為購物活動會更多。如果不是那樣，那就會少一些。所以這與我們的做法非常一致：我認為在看到一些趨勢、以及其他人也在談論的情況下，我們選擇審慎與保守——例如供應鏈短缺，人們買不到想買的東西。如果消費者信心下滑、大家更多轉向實體店消費，我們得到的 M&A 會比通常可能得到的更少。

If holiday season goes as it did last year, we'll get more than we're talking about right now. So I just think it's just very consistent with the guide that we gave. And again, as John mentioned, we've had a good start to the quarter. We've had a pretty strong last week with 4Q and -- but we're early on right now. And so we don't like it when we are at the midpoint of our guidance, it is or any of that kind of thing. We are used to being a company that puts out things and then beats what it puts out. And we want to assure that what we say is appropriate and appropriately conservative on it. So that's how I think I would answer that question, Jason.

如果假期季像去年那樣，我們會比現在所談的還要多。所以我認為這只是與我們給出的指引非常一致。而且如 John 提到的，我們這一季開局不錯。我們在第四季（4Q）的最後一週表現相當強勁——但目前仍然還在早期階段。因此我們不喜歡把自己放在指引的中點之類的狀態，或任何那種情況。我們習慣成為一家先給出目標，然後超越自己所給出目標的公司。我們希望確保我們所說的是恰當的，並且在此基礎上保持適度保守。所以我想我會這樣回答你的問題，Jason。

All right. Operator, thank you very much. Jason, thank you for that last question. Really look forward to talking to all of you over the course of the next couple of days and weeks and at a number of different conferences. And thank you for all your support and your time today.

好的。接線生，非常感謝。Jason，謝謝你提出最後一個問題。非常期待在接下來幾天與幾週內，以及在多場不同的會議上，與各位交流。也謝謝大家今天的支持與撥冗參與。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛線。