PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon.

下午好。

My name is Mel, and I will be your conference operator for today.

我叫梅爾，今天我將擔任您的會議接線員。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to PayPal Holdings Earnings Conference Call for the Third Quarter 2021.

在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加 PayPal Holdings 2021 年第三季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Ms. Gabrielle Rabinovitch, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance and Investor Relations.

我現在想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，公司財務和投資者關係高級副總裁 Gabrielle Rabinovitch 女士。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Mel.

謝謝你，梅爾。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us.

下午好，感謝您加入我們。

Welcome to PayPal's earnings conference call for the third quarter of 2021.

歡迎參加 PayPal 2021 年第三季度財報電話會議。

Joining me today on the call are Dan Schulman, our President and CEO; and John Rainey, our Chief Financial Officer and EVP, Global Customer Operations.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Dan Schulman；以及我們的首席財務官兼全球客戶運營執行副總裁 John Rainey。

We're providing a slide presentation to accompany our commentary.

我們正在提供幻燈片演示來配合我們的評論。

This conference call is also being webcast, and both the presentation and call are available on our Investor Relations website.

本次電話會議也正在進行網絡直播，我們的投資者關係網站上提供了演示文稿和電話會議。

In discussing our company's performance, we will refer to some non-GAAP measures.

在討論我們公司的業績時，我們將參考一些非公認會計準則指標。

You can find the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the presentation accompanying this conference call.

您可以在本次電話會議隨附的演示文稿中找到這些非 GAAP 措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的對賬。

Management will make forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations, forecasts and assumptions, and involve risks and uncertainties.

管理層將根據我們當前的預期、預測和假設做出前瞻性陳述，並涉及風險和不確定性。

These statements include our guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2021 and our outlook for 2022.

這些聲明包括我們對 2021 年第四季度和全年的指導以及我們對 2022 年的展望。

Our actual results may differ materially from these statements.

我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述大不相同。

You can find more information about risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our results in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC and available on our Investor Relations website.

您可以在我們最近提交給 SEC 的 10-K 表格年度報告和 10-Q 表格季度報告中找到有關可能影響我們業績的風險、不確定性和其他因素的更多信息，並可在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱。

You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements.

您不應過分依賴任何前瞻性陳述。

All information in this presentation is as of today's date, November 8, 2021.

本演示文稿中的所有信息截至今天，即 2021 年 11 月 8 日。

We expressly disclaim any obligation to update this information.

我們明確表示不承擔更新此信息的任何義務。

With that, let me turn the call over to Dan.

有了這個，讓我把電話轉給丹。

Thanks, Gabrielle, and thanks, everyone, for joining us.

謝謝加布里埃爾，也謝謝大家加入我們。

Well, the big news today is that for the first time, we are teaming up with Amazon to enable customers in the U.S. to pay with Venmo at checkout.

今天的大新聞是，我們第一次與亞馬遜合作，讓美國的客戶能夠在結賬時使用 Venmo 付款。

Starting next year, customers will be able to make purchases on amazon.com and the Amazon Mobile Shopping app using their Venmo accounts.

從明年開始，客戶將能夠使用他們的 Venmo 賬戶在 amazon.com 和亞馬遜移動購物應用程序上購物。

This is obviously a very significant moment in our Venmo monetization efforts and marks the beginning of an exciting journey with Amazon now that we are no longer constrained by the contractual obligations of the eBay operating agreement.

這顯然是我們 Venmo 貨幣化工作中的一個非常重要的時刻，標誌著我們與亞馬遜的激動人心的旅程的開始，因為我們不再受到 eBay 運營協議的合同義務的限制。

The increasing scale and brand trust associated with our 2-sided platform continues to set us apart from the rest of the market and enables us to expand our footprint with existing merchants and attract new partners.

與我們的雙面平台相關的不斷擴大的規模和品牌信任度繼續使我們在市場中脫穎而出，並使我們能夠擴大與現有商家的足跡並吸引新的合作夥伴。

And now to our results.

現在來看看我們的結果。

Our overall Q3 results were generally in line with our expectations.

我們第三季度的整體業績總體上符合我們的預期。

Our total payment volume grew 26% on a spot basis to $310 billion.

我們的總支付量按即期計算增長了 26%，達到 3100 億美元。

This comes even as eBay's TPV declined by 45% in the quarter and is now approximately 3% of our overall TPV.

即使 eBay 的 TPV 在本季度下降了 45%，現在大約占我們整體 TPV 的 3%，也是如此。

Excluding eBay, our volumes grew by 31% on a spot basis with an annualized run rate of $1.2 trillion.

不包括 eBay，我們的即期交易量增長了 31%，年化運行率為 1.2 萬億美元。

Our active accounts were up 15% year-over-year, reaching 416 million.

我們的活躍賬戶同比增長 15%，達到 4.16 億。

We added 13.3 million net new active accounts in the quarter, including another 1.2 million merchant accounts, bringing our total merchant count to 33 million.

我們在本季度新增淨活躍賬戶 1330 萬個，其中包括另外 120 萬個商戶賬戶，使我們的商戶總數達到 3300 萬個。

And we remain on track to deliver more than 52 million NNAs for the year.

我們今年仍有望交付超過 5200 萬份 NNA。

Importantly, our diverse suite of products and services drove double-digit growth in our transactions per active account, up 10% to 44.2x.

重要的是，我們多樣化的產品和服務套件推動我們每個活躍賬戶的交易實現兩位數增長，增長 10% 至 44.2 倍。

Revenues in the quarter grew to $6.182 billion, growing 13% on a spot basis.

本季度收入增長至 61.82 億美元，按即期計算增長 13%。

This was slightly below our expectations as back-to-school sales and travel were weaker than we expected.

這略低於我們的預期，因為返校銷售和旅行弱於我們的預期。

But even so, excluding eBay, our revenues grew by 25% in Q3.

但即便如此，不包括 eBay，我們的收入在第三季度增長了 25%。

eBay now represents less than 4% of our total revenues.

eBay 現在占我們總收入的不到 4%。

And we delivered non-GAAP EPS of $1.11 even as we continue to invest heavily in our growth initiatives.

即使我們繼續大力投資於我們的增長計劃，我們也實現了 1.11 美元的非公認會計原則每股收益。

Our platform continues to drive substantial value for our merchants.

我們的平台繼續為我們的商家帶來可觀的價值。

PayPal is the most accepted digital wallet with more than 75% of the top 1,500 largest global merchants utilizing PayPal at checkout.

PayPal 是最受認可的數字錢包，全球 1,500 家最大的商家中有超過 75% 的商家在結賬時使用 PayPal。

And on average, our PayPal checkout conversion is 34% higher than other checkout options.

平均而言，我們的 PayPal 結賬轉化率比其他結賬選項高 34%。

In addition to our Amazon news, we are very pleased to say that Walmart now presents PayPal as a checkout option for both their grocery and marketplace business, and GoFundMe me added PayPal to their checkout flow with Venmo to follow in the coming months.

除了我們的亞馬遜新聞，我們很高興地說，沃爾瑪現在將 PayPal 作為其雜貨店和市場業務的結賬選項，GoFundMe 我將 PayPal 添加到他們與 Venmo 的結賬流程中，以便在未來幾個月內跟進。

Valero and Phillips 66 are adding our QR codes to their thousands of gas stations across the U.S., and United Airlines recently launched PayPal QR payments in-flight.

Valero 和 Phillips 66 正在將我們的二維碼添加到他們遍布美國的數千個加油站，聯合航空公司最近推出了 PayPal 二維碼在飛行中支付。

As checkout evolves from pay now to pay on your own terms, we've seen rapid adoption of our Buy Now, Pay Later capabilities in the U.S., Germany, France, U.K. and Australia.

隨著結帳從現在付款發展為按您自己的條款付款，我們已經看到我們的“立即購買，以後付款”功能在美國、德國、法國、英國和澳大利亞迅速採用。

In Q4, we will expand Buy Now, Pay Later to Italy and Spain.

在第四季度，我們將把“立即購買，以後付款”擴展到意大利和西班牙。

Also in this quarter, we eliminated consumer late fees to ensure we deliver the very best value proposition to our consumers while delivering on our mission to build an inclusive digital economy.

同樣在本季度，我們取消了消費者滯納金，以確保我們為消費者提供最佳價值主張，同時履行我們建立包容性數字經濟的使命。

Since our Buy Now, Pay Later launch, we have processed approximately $5.4 billion in TPV, with more than $2 billion of that TPV in Q3 alone.

自從我們推出“先買後付”以來，我們已經處理了大約 54 億美元的 TPV，僅在第三季度就有超過 20 億美元的 TPV。

Approximately 950,000 merchants have customers who use our Buy Now, Pay Later capabilities and more than 65,000 have positioned Buy Now, Pay Later upstream on their product pages.

大約 950,000 家商家的客戶使用我們的“立即購買，稍後付款”功能，超過 65,000 家商家已將“立即購買，稍後付款”定位在其產品頁面的上游。

And over 9.5 million consumers have transacted more than 33 million times with our Buy Now, Pay Later products.

超過 950 萬消費者使用我們的“先買後付”產品進行了超過 3300 萬次的交易。

We will expand our global Pay Later portfolio in the first half of 2022 to include longer-term installment plans, allowing consumers to spread higher-price purchases over longer periods of time.

我們將在 2022 年上半年擴大我們的全球 Pay Late 產品組合，以納入長期分期付款計劃，讓消費者能夠在更長的時間內分散更高價格的購買。

This is already available in Germany where we are seeing great initial success.

這已經在德國推出，我們看到了巨大的初步成功。

We completed our acquisition of Paidy, a fast-growing 2-sided payments platform and provider of Buy Now, Pay Later solutions in Japan.

我們完成了對 Paidy 的收購，後者是日本快速發展的雙面支付平台和 Buy Now, Pay Later 解決方案提供商。

This will accelerate our momentum in Japan, a strategically important market and one of the largest e-commerce markets in the world.

這將加速我們在日本這個具有重要戰略意義的市場和世界上最大的電子商務市場之一的發展勢頭。

We are seeing very positive trends on our new PayPal app, which has now ramped to 100% globally.

我們在新的 PayPal 應用程序上看到了非常積極的趨勢，該應用程序現已在全球範圍內增長到 100%。

Consumers are engaging with the app and discovering the breadth of our new value proposition.

消費者正在使用該應用程序並發現我們新價值主張的廣度。

Although it's still early, initial results show that the new app has driven a 25x lift in consumers exploring our deals and offer stack, a 15% increase in first-time users transacting with crypto, and it has also driven a 35% lift in our cash card enrollments.

雖然現在還為時過早，但初步結果表明，新應用程序使探索我們的交易和優惠堆棧的消費者增加了 25 倍，首次使用加密交易的用戶增加了 15%，它還推動了我們的 35%現金卡註冊。

And the average revenue per account from digital wallet users is twice that of checkout-only users.

數字錢包用戶每個賬戶的平均收入是僅結賬用戶的兩倍。

We expect to launch more features next year, including equity investing capabilities.

我們預計明年將推出更多功能，包括股權投資功能。

It's quite exciting to see the initial positive reaction to our app, and we will continue to refine and expand its functionality to help consumers navigate an increasingly digital and connected lifestyle.

看到對我們的應用程序最初的積極反應非常令人興奮，我們將繼續完善和擴展其功能，以幫助消費者駕馭日益數字化和互聯的生活方式。

Venmo continues to achieve milestones and break records and is on track to deliver $900 million in revenue this year.

Venmo 繼續實現里程碑並打破記錄，並有望在今年實現 9 億美元的收入。

With more than 80 million customers and $240 billion in run rate TPV, Venmo's scale is on par with PayPal's entire U.S. franchise in 2016.

Venmo 擁有超過 8000 萬客戶和 2400 億美元的 TPV，其規模與 2016 年 PayPal 在美國的整個特許經營權相當。

Venmo's customers are adopting more and more products, and we are seeing accelerating momentum with our new product introductions.

Venmo 的客戶正在採用越來越多的產品，我們看到我們推出新產品的勢頭正在加速。

Even with all these growth and these impressive accomplishments, we are just at the start of Venmo's commerce journey and we could not be more pleased about joining forces with Amazon.

即使有了所有這些增長和這些令人印象深刻的成就，我們才剛剛開始 Venmo 的商業之旅，我們對與亞馬遜聯手感到非常高興。

We expect Venmo to be transaction margin-positive this year, while still growing its P2P business at very healthy rates.

我們預計 Venmo 今年的交易利潤率將為正，同時仍以非常健康的速度發展其 P2P 業務。

The back half of 2021 was always going to be the low point of our revenue growth this year, and we are appropriately cautious as we enter Q4 and as we think about 2022.

2021 年下半年一直是我們今年收入增長的低點，我們在進入第四季度和考慮 2022 年時適當謹慎。

We are seeing the impact of global supply chain shortages in our merchant base.

我們正在看到全球供應鏈短缺對我們的商家群的影響。

Consumer confidence has weakened with the absence of stimulus payments.

由於沒有刺激支付，消費者信心減弱。

And with the economy reopening, more people may be likely to do their holiday shopping in-store as confidence in delivery logistics is depressed from last year.

隨著經濟的重新開放，更多的人可能會在店內進行假日購物，因為對物流配送的信心較去年低。

And of course, we still feel the impacts of eBay's managed payments migration over the next few quarters, although at a lessening rate.

當然，我們仍能感受到 eBay 託管支付遷移在接下來幾個季度的影響，儘管速度有所放緩。

Almost all of these issues are temporal.

幾乎所有這些問題都是暫時的。

And consequently, we expect our revenues will accelerate throughout next year and we remain confident in our medium-term guidance.

因此，我們預計我們的收入將在明年全年加速，我們對我們的中期指導仍然充滿信心。

I'd like to spend a few moments on the recent rumors that made their way through the news.

我想花點時間談談最近在新聞中流傳的謠言。

We participate in a rapidly moving industry.

我們參與一個快速發展的行業。

It's quite clear that consumers and merchants prefer a more connected digital lifestyle that encompasses financial services, shopping, payments and commerce.

很明顯，消費者和商家更喜歡互聯程度更高的數字生活方式，包括金融服務、購物、支付和商務。

Our market research and that of others strongly supports the vision of a more connected economy.

我們的市場研究和其他人的市場研究強烈支持建立更加互聯的經濟的願景。

And PayPal clearly has the brand trust, regulatory relationships and scale to be a meaningful leader in the digital economy.

PayPal 顯然擁有品牌信任、監管關係和規模，可以成為數字經濟中有意義的領導者。

Exploring all potential opportunities to enhance shareholder value is our responsibility.

探索所有提高股東價值的潛在機會是我們的責任。

But obviously, only a select few deals will meet our very strict financial, strategic and capital allocation criteria.

但顯然，只有少數交易符合我們非常嚴格的財務、戰略和資本分配標準。

We are fortunate to be a market leader in an environment with so many potential opportunities and operate in an industry with a number of favorable tailwinds.

我們很幸運能夠在一個擁有如此多潛在機會的環境中成為市場領導者，並在一個擁有許多有利順風的行業中運營。

We will continue to execute against our game plan and responsibly explore the options in our rapidly evolving ecosystem so that we remain the leader we are today in tomorrow's world.

我們將繼續執行我們的遊戲計劃，並負責任地探索我們快速發展的生態系統中的選擇，以便我們在明天的世界中保持今天的領先地位。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to John.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給約翰。

Thanks, Dan.

謝謝，丹。

I'd like to start by thanking our customers, partners and employees for helping us deliver a solid quarter.

首先，我要感謝我們的客戶、合作夥伴和員工幫助我們實現了一個穩健的季度。

We're now reporting our results for the seventh quarter since the pandemic began, and it's remarkable to take a step back and reflect on everything that we've accomplished during this dynamic and unprecedented time.

自大流行開始以來，我們現在正在報告我們的第七季度業績，退一步思考我們在這個充滿活力和前所未有的時期所取得的一切成就是非常了不起的。

There's been a profound and enduring shift in global commerce and consumer behavior, which has significantly expanded our addressable opportunity.

全球商業和消費者行為發生了深刻而持久的轉變，極大地擴大了我們的潛在機會。

The powerful and accelerating secular tailwinds of increasing e-commerce penetration and cash displacement have helped to advance our leadership position in payments.

電子商務滲透率不斷提高和現金轉移的強大且加速的長期順風有助於提升我們在支付領域的領導地位。

To give you a better sense of the scale of growth we've experienced, it took 20 years for PayPal to reach $600 billion in annual payment volume, which occurred in 2019.

為了讓您更好地了解我們所經歷的增長規模，PayPal 用了 20 年的時間才達到 6000 億美元的年支付額，這發生在 2019 年。

Only 2 years later, we crossed $1.2 trillion.

僅僅 2 年後，我們就突破了 1.2 萬億美元。

Relative to 2019, we've seen significant growth across our key performance indicators, including active accounts, engagement, TPV, revenue, EPS and free cash flow.

相對於 2019 年，我們的關鍵績效指標顯著增長，包括活躍賬戶、參與度、TPV、收入、每股收益和自由現金流。

At the same time, we're operating in a complex environment.

同時，我們在一個複雜的環境中運作。

The macroeconomic landscape is currently characterized by varying rates of reopening activity globally and influenced by short-term supply chain challenges, inflationary pressures and concerns related to consumer sentiment.

目前，宏觀經濟格局的特點是全球重新開放活動的速度不同，並受到短期供應鏈挑戰、通脹壓力和與消費者情緒相關的擔憂的影響。

These factors contribute to a backdrop that continues to make forecasting more challenging.

這些因素促成了繼續使預測更具挑戰性的背景。

Our third quarter performance demonstrates the strength of our diversified platform, our global reach and the scalability of our business.

我們第三季度的業績展示了我們多元化平台的實力、我們的全球影響力和我們業務的可擴展性。

Notably, we delivered these results against tough year-over-year comparisons, and in the quarter, where we face the most acute pressure from eBay's payments transition.

值得注意的是，我們提供了這些結果與艱難的同比比較，並且在本季度，我們面臨來自 eBay 支付轉型的最嚴重壓力。

For the quarter, we're reporting revenue of $6.2 billion, representing growth of 13% on both a spot and currency-neutral basis.

本季度，我們報告的收入為 62 億美元，在即期和貨幣中性基礎上均增長 13%。

eBay Marketplaces revenue declined 67% to $235 million and contributed less than 4% of total revenue versus approximately 13% last year.

eBay Marketplaces 收入下降 67% 至 2.35 億美元，佔總收入的比例不到 4%，而去年這一比例約為 13%。

Excluding eBay, revenue grew 25% year-over-year and 26% on average for the last 2 years.

不包括 eBay，收入同比增長 25%，過去 2 年平均增長 26%。

This 2-year compound annual growth rate is particularly notable.

這一兩年的複合年增長率尤為顯著。

Throughout 2021, this growth rate has been consistently strong at 25% and 26% in the first and second quarters, respectively.

整個 2021 年，這一增長率一直保持強勁，第一季度和第二季度分別達到 25% 和 26%。

I would also like to provide some context for our performance relative to our expectations when we provided third quarter guidance in late July.

我還想為我們在 7 月下旬提供第三季度指導時的預期提供一些背景信息。

First, travel volumes strengthened in June and July.

首先，6 月和 7 月的旅行量有所增加。

This trend then reversed in August and September due to concerns related to the Delta variant.

由於對 Delta 變體的擔憂，這種趨勢隨後在 8 月和 9 月逆轉。

Second, back-to-school spending was somewhat softer than we had expected.

其次，返校支出比我們預期的要低一些。

While our overall performance was well within our guidance, we saw moderation towards the tail end of the quarter and exited at a lower growth rate than we had predicted.

雖然我們的整體表現在我們的指導範圍內，但我們在本季度末看到放緩，並以低於我們預期的增長率退出。

In the third quarter, transaction revenue grew 10% to $5.6 billion.

第三季度，交易收入增長 10% 至 56 億美元。

This growth rate reflects the steep decline in eBay revenue in the quarter.

這一增長率反映了該季度 eBay 收入的急劇下降。

Excluding eBay, transaction revenue grew 23%.

不包括eBay，交易收入增長了23%。

Other value-added services revenue grew 50% to $575 million.

其他增值服務收入增長 50% 至 5.75 億美元。

This performance was driven by increased revenue from Synchrony and accelerated recognition of loan servicing fees from the PPP program.

這一業績是由 Synchrony 的收入增加和 PPP 計劃中貸款服務費的加速確認推動的。

In the third quarter, total take rate was 1.99%, consistent with the second quarter and a decline of 22 basis points from last year.

三季度總成交率為1.99%，與二季度持平，比去年下降22個基點。

The mix effect of eBay contributed to approximately 55% of this decline.

eBay 的混合效應導致了大約 55% 的下降。

The blended take rate on eBay volumes this quarter was 2.43% compared to 4% in Q3 last year.

本季度 eBay 交易量的混合採用率為 2.43%，而去年第三季度為 4%。

The remainder of the decline was primarily driven by reduced currency volatility in the quarter, which resulted in a lower growth rate in foreign exchange fees as well as merchant mix and growth in bill payment volumes.

下降的其餘部分主要是由於本季度貨幣波動性降低，導致外匯費用、商戶組合和賬單支付量增長放緩。

The 25 basis point decline in transaction take rate was driven by these same factors.

交易接受率下降 25 個基點是由這些相同的因素驅動的。

The third quarter was another strong quarter for volume-based expense performance.

第三季度是基於數量的費用表現的又一個強勁季度。

Transaction expense as a rate of TPV was 83 basis points, an increase of 1 basis point versus last year.

交易費用佔 TPV 的比率為 83 個基點，比去年增加 1 個基點。

Transaction losses improved 4 basis points and represented 9 basis points as a rate of TPV.

交易損失改善了 4 個基點，代表 TPV 的比率為 9 個基點。

This level of loss performance is consistent with last quarter, matching the lowest transaction loss rate in our history.

這種損失表現水平與上一季度一致，與我們歷史上最低的交易損失率相匹配。

In the quarter, loan origination activity increased and we ended Q3 with $3.7 billion in net receivables, representing sequential growth of 13% and 43% growth relative to last year.

本季度，貸款發放活動增加，第三季度末應收賬款淨額為 37 億美元，與去年相比分別增長 13% 和 43%。

Growth in our short-term installment pay portfolio was the primary driver of this increase.

我們短期分期付款組合的增長是這一增長的主要驅動力。

Strong performance of our loan portfolio, more stability in macroeconomic trends and the mix of shorter duration originations from our installment pay products resulted in our reserve coverage ratio declining to 11.6% from 14.9% at the end of the second quarter.

我們的貸款組合表現強勁、宏觀經濟趨勢更加穩定以及分期付款產品的期限較短，導致我們的準備金覆蓋率從第二季度末的 14.9% 下降至 11.6%。

The net effect of credit provisioning on credit losses in the quarter, inclusive of originations and reserve releases, resulted in a benefit of $25 million.

信貸撥備對本季度信貸損失的淨影響，包括發起和儲備釋放，產生了 2500 萬美元的收益。

And year-to-date, we released $300 million in reserves.

年初至今，我們釋放了 3 億美元的儲備金。

Overall, volume-based expenses grew 20% and represented 46% of revenue, resulting in a transaction margin of 54.2%.

總體而言，基於數量的費用增長了 20%，佔收入的 46%，交易利潤率為 54.2%。

I'd now like to cover our non-transaction-related operating expenses.

我現在想支付我們與交易無關的運營費用。

These expenses increased 17%, representing 30% of revenue.

這些費用增加了 17%，佔收入的 30%。

In the third quarter, our rapid pace of innovation continued.

第三季度，我們繼續快速創新。

We had an exciting cadence of product introductions, including our new digital wallet apps for both PayPal and Venmo, the launch of crypto by wholesale in the U.K., our goods and services P2P experience in Venmo and Cash Back to Crypto with the Venmo credit card.

我們推出了令人興奮的產品介紹，包括我們為 PayPal 和 Venmo 推出的新數字錢包應用程序、在英國通過批發方式推出的加密貨幣、我們在 Venmo 的商品和服務 P2P 體驗以及使用 Venmo 信用卡對加密貨幣的現金返還。

To support and advance our key initiatives, we continue to invest aggressively in technology and development and sales and marketing, including increased spending on customer acquisition and engagement strategies.

為了支持和推進我們的關鍵舉措，我們將繼續大力投資於技術和開發以及銷售和營銷，包括增加在客戶獲取和參與戰略方面的支出。

These expense buckets drove 70% of the increase in non-transaction-related operating expenses.

這些費用類別推動了非交易相關運營費用增長的 70%。

On a non-GAAP basis, operating income was essentially flat to last year and our operating margin was 23.8%.

在非公認會計原則的基礎上，營業收入與去年基本持平，我們的營業利潤率為 23.8%。

And on a 2-year basis, the compound annual growth rate for operating income was 20%.

以2年為基礎，營業收入的年復合增長率為20%。

For the quarter, non-GAAP EPS grew 4% to $1.11.

本季度，非公認會計原則每股收益增長 4% 至 1.11 美元。

This includes an approximate $0.29 per share headwind from the decline in eBay Marketplaces' transaction margin dollars.

這包括來自 eBay Marketplaces 交易保證金美元下降的每股約 0.29 美元的逆風。

We ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and investments of $20 billion.

我們在本季度結束時擁有 200 億美元的現金、現金等價物和投資。

In addition, free cash flow grew 20% to $1.3 billion, representing 21% of revenue.

此外，自由現金流增長 20% 至 13 億美元，佔收入的 21%。

I'd now like to discuss our outlook for the remainder of 2021 as well as our preliminary thoughts for 2022.

我現在想討論我們對 2021 年剩餘時間的展望以及我們對 2022 年的初步想法。

For 2021, we now expect revenue to be in the range of $25.3 billion to $25.4 billion, an increase of approximately 18% from last year.

對於 2021 年，我們現在預計收入將在 253 億美元至 254 億美元之間，比去年增長約 18%。

This represents a 2-year compound annual growth rate of 19%.

這代表了 19% 的 2 年復合年增長率。

And excluding eBay, we now expect 2021 revenue to grow 28%.

不包括 eBay，我們現在預計 2021 年的收入將增長 28%。

We expect our operating margin to be in line to last year, which was the highest in our history.

我們預計我們的營業利潤率將與去年持平，這是我們歷史上的最高水平。

This performance reflects our strategic investment spend throughout the year as well as the negative transaction margin dynamics resulting from eBay, offset by the benefit from the release of reserves.

這一業績反映了我們全年的戰略投資支出以及 eBay 帶來的負交易保證金動態，被釋放儲備金所帶來的好處所抵消。

We now expect non-GAAP EPS for the year to be approximately $4.60, a 19% increase on top of the 31% growth last year.

我們現在預計今年非公認會計原則每股收益約為 4.60 美元，比去年增長 31% 增加 19%。

And on a 2-year basis, this is 25% growth.

在 2 年的基礎上，這是 25% 的增長。

In addition, we expect to generate approximately $5.2 billion in free cash flow, representing $0.21 of free cash flow for every $1 of revenue we earn.

此外，我們預計將產生約 52 億美元的自由現金流，即我們每獲得 1 美元的收入將產生 0.21 美元的自由現金流。

As a result of this update to our full year guidance, we expect fourth quarter revenue to be in the range of $6.85 billion to $6.95 billion.

由於我們對全年指導的更新，我們預計第四季度收入將在 68.5 億美元至 69.5 億美元之間。

This represents approximately 13% growth at the midpoint.

這代表了中點約 13% 的增長。

We also expect $1.12 in non-GAAP EPS, representing 4% growth.

我們還預計非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.12 美元，增長 4%。

While the impact from eBay's payments migration came in consistent with our expectations for the quarter, relative to the beginning of the year, the headwind increased significantly.

雖然 eBay 支付遷移的影響與我們對本季度的預期一致，但相對於年初，逆風顯著增加。

Until recently, we believe we could absorb this additional pressure and still deliver on our prior guidance.

直到最近，我們相信我們可以吸收這種額外的壓力，並且仍然能夠實現我們之前的指導。

And while we came within our revenue expectations for the third quarter, the contributors to our revenue growth were somewhat different than what we had expected going into the quarter.

儘管我們在第三季度的收入預期之內，但對我們收入增長的貢獻與我們對本季度的預期有所不同。

Toward the end of the quarter, we also began to see growth rates come in a little lower than planned.

在本季度末，我們也開始看到增長率略低於計劃。

We're off to a solid start in the fourth quarter, but growth rates still remain slightly below our prior expectations.

我們在第四季度開局良好，但增長率仍略低於我們之前的預期。

In addition, retail supply chain and labor market concerns, which may impact the important holiday season, have led us to adopt a more cautious stance for the fourth quarter.

此外，可能影響重要假日季節的零售供應鍊和勞動力市場問題，導致我們對第四季度採取更加謹慎的立場。

That said, in recent days, we've seen improvement.

也就是說，最近幾天，我們看到了進步。

At this point in time, it's difficult to say definitively whether these stronger turns will persist throughout the quarter or if this improvement is a pull forward of consumer holiday activity.

在這個時間點上，很難明確地說這些強勁的轉變是否會持續到整個季度，或者這種改善是否是消費者假日活動的推動力。

Relative to the guidance provided at the start of 2021, we now expect revenue to be about 0.5% lower for the year despite much more pressure from eBay than we had initially expected.

相對於 2021 年初提供的指導，我們現在預計今年的收入將下降約 0.5%，儘管來自 eBay 的壓力比我們最初預期的要大得多。

Adjusting for the additional pressure to revenue growth from eBay, our revised 2021 guidance is actually ahead of the outlook we provided at the start of the year.

考慮到 eBay 對收入增長的額外壓力，我們修訂後的 2021 年指導實際上領先於我們在年初提供的前景。

In providing quarterly and annual guidance since July of last year, our goal has been to responsibly balance transparency with reliability and certainty.

自去年 7 月以來，在提供季度和年度指導時，我們的目標是負責任地平衡透明度與可靠性和確定性。

At the same time, we've also tried to emphasize the complexity of forecasting in this environment.

同時，我們也試圖強調在這種環境下預測的複雜性。

We are taking what we view to be a prudent step in adjusting our outlook.

我們正在採取我們認為是調整前景的審慎步驟。

But let me be very clear, our key strategic initiatives are on track and performing very well.

但讓我非常清楚，我們的關鍵戰略舉措正在走上正軌並且表現非常好。

The initial response to our new digital wallet experiences has been very strong, and the implementation of our new headline pricing in the U.S. has been successful with no discernible impact to merchant activity.

對我們新的數字錢包體驗的初步反應非常強烈，我們在美國實施新的標題定價已經成功，對商家活動沒有明顯影響。

The underlying strength, diversification and resilience of our business on an absolute level and relative to pre-pandemic are unassailable and position us to remain on offense regardless of short-term headwinds.

相對於大流行前，我們的業務在絕對水平上的潛在實力、多元化和彈性是無懈可擊的，這使我們無論短期逆風如何都能繼續進攻。

Our ability to sustainably deliver strong growth at our scale is indicative of the network effects of our business and our competitive positioning as a global leader in digital payments at the intersection of the powerful secular tailwinds of e-commerce penetration and cash displacement has never been stronger.

我們在我們的規模上可持續地實現強勁增長的能力表明了我們業務的網絡效應以及我們在電子商務滲透和現金置換的強大長期順風的交匯處作為全球數字支付領導者的競爭地位從未如此強大.

As it relates to our expectations for 2022, we'd like to share some of our initial thoughts and the assumptions we're making for internal planning purposes.

由於它與我們對 2022 年的預期有關，我們想分享一些我們的初步想法和我們為內部規劃目的所做的假設。

We are currently in the midst of our budget resource and investment planning process for next year.

我們目前正在製定明年的預算資源和投資計劃流程。

In addition, how we exit the year as well as the status of some of the exogenous factors that Dan and I have already discussed are also important inputs for the year ahead.

此外，我們如何退出這一年以及我和丹已經討論過的一些外生因素的狀況也是未來一年的重要投入。

On a preliminary basis, for 2022, we expect revenue growth in the high teens.

在初步基礎上，我們預計 2022 年的收入將增長到十幾歲。

If we had to put a point on it today, we'd likely anchor it at about 18%.

如果我們今天不得不指出這一點，我們可能會將其錨定在 18% 左右。

It's also important to appreciate our expected trajectory of revenue growth.

了解我們預期的收入增長軌跡也很重要。

Due to the cadence of eBay's payments migration as well as the stimulus measures earlier this year, we expect the first quarter next year to have more difficult comps and be our lowest growth quarter.

由於 eBay 支付遷移的節奏以及今年早些時候的刺激措施，我們預計明年第一季度會有更多困難，並且是我們增長最低的季度。

Our plans are for revenue growth to then accelerate through the year and to exit 2022 at a revenue growth rate in line with or ahead of our medium-term guidance.

我們的計劃是全年收入增長加速，並以符合或超過我們的中期指導的收入增長率退出 2022 年。

Similar to 2021, we expect that our growth rates will exceed industry growth rates by a healthy margin.

與 2021 年類似，我們預計我們的增長率將大大超過行業增長率。

Given the ongoing planning that we're still doing, we will guide EPS growth when we report Q4 results early next year.

鑑於我們仍在進行中的計劃，我們將在明年初報告第四季度業績時指導每股收益增長。

That said, I'd like to provide some color on how we're thinking about it.

也就是說，我想提供一些關於我們如何考慮它的顏色。

We see significant investment opportunities across our key priorities.

我們在關鍵優先事項中看到了重要的投資機會。

In the past 2 years, we've accelerated our pace of product innovation to better serve our growing network of more than 400 million consumer and merchant accounts.

在過去的 2 年中，我們加快了產品創新的步伐，以更好地服務於我們不斷增長的超過 4 億消費者和商家賬戶的網絡。

We are investing to advance our product road map, increase our relevance for customers and drive daily engagement.

我們正在投資以推進我們的產品路線圖，增加我們與客戶的相關性並推動日常參與。

And to support these initiatives, we expect our non-transaction-related expenses to grow in the high single digits in 2022 on a base that will grow 20% this year.

為了支持這些舉措，我們預計我們的非交易相關費用將在今年增長 20% 的基礎上在 2022 年以高個位數增長。

It's also important to note 2 factors that will have an impact on our EPS growth next year.

同樣重要的是要注意兩個將對我們明年每股收益增長產生影響的因素。

First, we will lap the benefit we realized from the release of the credit reserve this year.

首先，我們將總結今年釋放信貸儲備所帶來的收益。

And second, we expect our effective tax rate to increase from the lapping of onetime favorable tax adjustments.

其次，我們預計我們的有效稅率會因一次性優惠稅收調整的實施而增加。

We expect these 2 items to result in an approximate 10-point headwind to non-GAAP earnings growth in 2022.

我們預計這兩項將在 2022 年對非公認會計原則的盈利增長造成約 10 個百分點的阻力。

That said, we remain very confident in the medium-term guidance we provided at our Investor Day earlier this year.

也就是說，我們對今年早些時候在投資者日提供的中期指導仍然非常有信心。

We're witnessing the pull forward of e-commerce and displacement of cash continuing at an undiminished pace even as reopening the curves.

我們正在目睹電子商務的發展和現金的轉移，即使在重新開放曲線的同時，其速度也不會減慢。

It's also true that the most difficult year in the transition away from eBay will be largely behind us as we move into 2022, and we expect our revenue and TPV growth rates to accelerate.

同樣，隨著我們進入 2022 年，從 eBay 轉型中最困難的一年將在很大程度上過去，我們預計我們的收入和 TPV 增長率將加速。

We believe that investing in our business is more important than ever before given the opportunities we see in front of us.

鑑於擺在我們面前的機會，我們相信投資於我們的業務比以往任何時候都更加重要。

And while we certainly expect our margins to increase over the long term, we don't want to be so overly focused on that from one quarter or one year to the next, then we don't invest appropriately.

雖然我們當然希望我們的利潤率在長期內會增加，但我們不希望從一個季度或一年到下一個季度過分關注這一點，然後我們就沒有進行適當的投資。

We are playing in this space to win.

我們在這個空間裡玩是為了贏。

We are well positioned to capture the immense opportunity ahead and see a clear path to achieving our financial and strategic objectives.

我們有能力抓住未來的巨大機遇，並為實現我們的財務和戰略目標找到一條清晰的道路。

Our powerful 2-sided platform focused on execution and mission-driven culture backed by the tailwinds of digital commerce set us up for success now and in the years to come.

我們強大的雙面平台專注於執行和使命驅動的文化，並以數字商務為後盾，為我們現在和未來幾年的成功奠定了基礎。

Before I turn it back over to the operator for Q&A, I would like to spend a moment discussing our approach to capital allocation.

在我把它交給運營商進行問答之前，我想花點時間討論一下我們的資本配置方法。

Our business is characterized by its very powerful cash flow generation.

我們業務的特點是產生非常強大的現金流。

Since separation, we generated approximately $22 billion in free cash flow.

自分離以來，我們產生了大約 220 億美元的自由現金流。

We've returned nearly $10.5 billion in cash to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and allocated approximately $13 billion in cash to acquisitions and investments.

我們以股票回購的形式向股東返還了近 105 億美元的現金，並將約 130 億美元的現金用於收購和投資。

We remain committed to both disciplined capital allocation and to balancing organic and inorganic growth investing to drive shareholder value creation.

我們仍然致力於有紀律的資本分配和平衡有機和無機增長投資，以推動股東價值創造。

Inorganic opportunities are accelerating through our growth plans and to achieving our long-term aspirations.

無機機會正在通過我們的增長計劃加速實現我們的長期願望。

It's important to note that our medium-term outlook does not rely on acquisitions.

值得注意的是，我們的中期前景並不依賴於收購。

At the same time, we will continue to be opportunistic in executing our strategic priorities, shaping the future of payments and advancing our leadership position.

與此同時，我們將繼續投機取巧地執行我們的戰略重點、塑造支付的未來並提升我們的領導地位。

With that, I will turn it back to the operator.

有了這個，我會把它還給操作員。

Operator, please go ahead.

接線員，請繼續。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tien-Tsin Huang。

Really exciting to hear about the Amazon news.

聽到亞馬遜的消息真的很令人興奮。

I know there's a lot to talk about here, but I wanted to ask on the market rumors on Pinterest, if you don't mind.

我知道這裡有很多話要說，但我想問問 Pinterest 上的市場傳言，如果你不介意的話。

And I know you're not pursuing a deal at this time, but just wanted to ask if your appetite to do a large deal is still there?

而且我知道您此時並沒有進行交易，只是想問一下您是否仍然有做大筆交易的慾望？

And if your longer-term outlook and just on adding any assets like that with different revenue sources like advertising -- I know, John, you just said you don't -- you're not counting on M&A for midterm, just thinking longer term here.

如果你的長期展望只是增加任何具有不同收入來源（如廣告）的資產——我知道，約翰，你只是說你沒有——你不會指望中期併購，只是考慮更長時間在這裡術語。

Yes.

是的。

I'll start off on that and then John can chime in on this.

我將從這開始，然後約翰可以插話。

Let me just take one step back and start a little bit with the big picture because that may help put everything into context.

讓我退後一步，從大局開始，因為這可能有助於將所有內容置於上下文中。

Look, we're obviously focused on becoming an essential everyday app for consumers, and that's on the consumer side.

看，我們顯然專注於成為消費者必不可少的日常應用程序，這是在消費者方面。

And on the merchant side, we want to provide a comprehensive platform for merchants to participate in the digital economy, and that includes everything from consumers engaging at the beginning of their shopping journey to purchase and post-purchase.

而在商家方面，我們希望為商家提供一個參與數字經濟的綜合平台，包括從消費者在購物之旅開始到購買和購買後的所有內容。

And if you look at all of the acquisitions that we've done over the past 5 years, they kind of play into that overall strategy, whether it be what we've done internally with the PayPal app or QR codes; acquisitions like Honey, which have been essential to our shopping deals, tab fully integrated now into the PayPal app; Happy Returns, Chargehound, they're part of our post-purchase process that we'll integrate into our app and put into our platform for merchants; iZettle, Hyperwallet now is our payouts product going forward.

如果你看看我們在過去 5 年中完成的所有收購，它們都會在整體戰略中發揮作用，無論是我們在內部使用 PayPal 應用程序還是二維碼所做的事情；像 Honey 這樣的收購，對我們的購物交易至關重要，現在完全集成到 PayPal 應用程序中；快樂退貨，Chargehound，它們是我們購買後流程的一部分，我們將整合到我們的應用程序中並放入我們的商家平台； iZettle，Hyperwallet 現在是我們未來的支付產品。

So I'm very pleased with all the acquisitions we've done.

所以我對我們完成的所有收購感到非常滿意。

They fit into our strategy.

它們符合我們的戰略。

They are executing, many of them well above what we initially thought.

他們正在執行，其中許多遠遠超出了我們最初的想法。

Some were delayed in terms of their integration for various reasons.

由於各種原因，有些人的整合被推遲了。

But overall really, I'm pleased with the way our acquisition and acquisition strategy has gone and the integration into our strategy.

但總的來說，我對我們的收購和收購戰略的發展方式以及與我們戰略的整合感到滿意。

The truth is we review hundreds of potential acquisitions every single year, and we put every single one of them through a very strict set of strategic financial integration filters.

事實是，我們每年都會審查數百個潛在的收購，並且我們將其中的每一個都通過一套非常嚴格的戰略財務整合過濾器。

And we look at like, are we going to buy, build or partner?

我們看看，我們是要購買、建造還是合作？

And John and I have been here now for -- well, I've been here a little over 7 years, he's been here closing in on that -- and we've never done a large acquisition so far.

約翰和我現在已經在這裡 - 嗯，我在這裡已經 7 年多了，他一直在這裡接近 - 到目前為止，我們從未進行過大規模收購。

And the reason for that -- and by the way, we look at a couple of those every year.

以及其中的原因——順便說一下，我們每年都會查看其中的幾個。

There are very few that we look at, but we look at a couple every year, and they have a much higher hurdle rate than our smaller acquisitions.

我們看的很少，但我們每年都會看幾個，它們的門檻率比我們較小的收購要高得多。

I mean, we want to look, is it going to be a distraction?

我的意思是，我們想看看，這會不會讓人分心？

How tough is the integration?

整合有多難？

We fully understand what it means to do a large acquisition versus a smaller acquisition.

我們完全理解進行大型收購與小型收購的意義。

And in 7 years, we haven't done a single large acquisition because they haven't met any of our hurdles.

7 年來，我們沒有進行過一次大型收購，因為他們沒有遇到我們的任何障礙。

So I'm not saying that we might never ever do that, but it's not a likely event as we look forward.

所以我並不是說我們可能永遠不會這樣做，但正如我們所期待的那樣，這不太可能發生。

In our M&A philosophy, it remains the same.

在我們的併購理念中，它保持不變。

We're going to focus on high-quality assets that will accelerate our growth in areas that are more efficient than us doing it inorganically.

我們將專注於高質量資產，這些資產將加速我們在比我們無機地進行效率更高的領域的增長。

And to your question specifically, we don't need to do something large to -- or small, frankly -- to deliver on our medium-term guidance.

具體到你的問題，坦率地說，我們不需要做一些大的事情——或者說很小的事情——來實現我們的中期指導。

All of our acquisitions are supplemental to our medium-term guidance.

我們所有的收購都是對我們中期指導的補充。

And clearly, we are going to be acquisitive going forward.

很明顯，我們將在未來進行收購。

I mean, we've got an incredibly strong balance sheet, $20 billion of cash and cash-like investments on it.

我的意思是，我們的資產負債表非常強勁，有 200 億美元的現金和類似現金的投資。

We're generating between $5 billion and $6 billion a year of free cash flow.

我們每年產生 50 億至 60 億美元的自由現金流。

But we are going to maintain the same strict and disciplined manner that we look at acquisitions and have looked at acquisitions over the last couple of years.

但我們將保持與過去幾年來看待收購和看待收購一樣的嚴格和自律的方式。

John, anything that you...

約翰，任何你...

Yes.

是的。

I mean I think you covered a lot of it, Dan.

我的意思是我認為你涵蓋了很多，丹。

I just would add, Tien-Tsin, that we laid out what we believe to be a very compelling case at our Investor Day around value creation over the next 5 years.

我只想補充一點，Tien-Tsin，我們在投資者日圍繞未來 5 年的價值創造提出了我們認為非常引人注目的案例。

That was entirely an organic plan and remains so.

這完全是一個有機的計劃，並且仍然如此。

But that said, we don't want to sit here on our hands and think that that's good enough.

但話雖如此，我們不想坐在這裡並認為這已經足夠了。

If there are opportunities that are out there that create even more value creation, it's our responsibility to look at those.

如果存在創造更多價值的機會，那麼我們有責任關注這些機會。

And so that's where deals of this size may come in sometimes, but that's what we take capital allocation with is a very serious activity for us and arguably one of the most important.

因此，有時可能會出現這種規模的交易，但這就是我們將資本配置用於我們的一項非常嚴肅的活動，並且可以說是最重要的活動之一。

And so as Dan said, we have a lot of rigor around that.

正如丹所說，我們對此非常嚴格。

And thus far, nothing has met those rigorous hurdles for us.

到目前為止，我們還沒有遇到這些嚴格的障礙。

But I think -- and the management team shares a belief that we have the same opportunity over the next 5 years to create value that we just realized over the last 5 years.

但我認為 - 管理團隊相信，我們在未來 5 年有同樣的機會創造我們在過去 5 年剛剛實現的價值。

But if we can do more than that, then we should do more than that.

但如果我們能做的不止於此，那麼我們應該做的不止於此。

And so that's why we explore every opportunity, but the growth plans that we laid out in the early part of this year at our Investor Day are entirely organic.

這就是我們探索每一個機會的原因，但我們在今年年初在投資者日制定的增長計劃是完全有機的。

Next question comes from the line of Colin Sebastian with Baird.

下一個問題來自 Colin Sebastian 和 Baird。

Great.

偉大的。

So pretty big news here with Amazon and Venmo integration, especially given how protective Amazon is over their checkout flow.

亞馬遜和 Venmo 的整合帶來瞭如此大的新聞，尤其是考慮到亞馬遜對其結賬流程的保護程度。

So congrats there.

所以恭喜那裡。

And it might be helpful to expand a bit on what you talked about around the agreement such as are the economics with Amazon similar to other marketplace deals that you have in place?

擴展一下您圍繞協議所討論的內容可能會有所幫助，例如與亞馬遜的經濟狀況是否與您已達成的其他市場交易相似？

Are there opportunities to expand the relationship to other PayPal brands and services?

是否有機會擴大與其他 PayPal 品牌和服務的關係？

And maybe when in 2022 we can expect Venmo to show up on the site?

也許在 2022 年，我們可以期待 Venmo 出現在網站上？

Yes.

是的。

You bet.

你打賭。

Thanks, Colin.

謝謝，科林。

Good question.

好問題。

First of all, I'd say one of the things we talked about early on is being free of the restrictions of the eBay operating agreement.

首先，我想說我們早先談到的一件事是不受 eBay 運營協議的限制。

We're going to have the possibility to open us up to working with a number of marketplaces that we were previously prohibited from doing so.

我們將有可能開放我們與許多我們以前被禁止這樣做的市場合作。

And you're seeing some of that, you're seeing what we're doing with Ali and AliExpress, that continues to expand in terms of the volumes there.

你會看到其中的一些，你會看到我們正在與 Ali 和 AliExpress 做的事情，就那裡的交易量而言，這將繼續擴大。

We are getting closer and closer with Walmart.

我們與沃爾瑪的距離越來越近。

And Amazon is the latest example of us being able to team up with obviously an extremely significant player in the e-commerce space.

亞馬遜是我們能夠與顯然是電子商務領域極其重要的參與者合作的最新例子。

And what I really like about this is like eBay results are like a pig through the python right now, but these that we're talking about, right, are much more of a permanent nature.

我真正喜歡的是 eBay 的結果現在就像一頭穿過蟒蛇的豬，但我們正在談論的這些，對，更多的是永久性的。

These are what will be with us going forward as eBay kind of is a temporal phenomenon working through our results.

這些都是我們前進的方向，因為 eBay 是一種通過我們的結果發揮作用的時間現象。

We're still working through the launch time frames.

我們仍在努力完成發佈時間框架。

We're both eager to get this out into the marketplace, but we're still working those to.

我們都渴望將其推向市場，但我們仍在努力。

We obviously have large teams, each of us, on this.

在這方面，我們每個人顯然都有大型團隊。

It is the beginning of a journey of our 2 companies teaming together.

這是我們兩家公司合作旅程的開始。

I wouldn't venture at this moment as to where we'll go together.

我現在不會冒險我們將一起去哪裡。

We're both very focused on the substantial opportunity that there is with Venmo at checkout, and we couldn't be more pleased to be able to team with Amazon on this.

我們都非常關注 Venmo 在結賬時的巨大機會，我們非常高興能夠在這方面與亞馬遜合作。

Obviously, if you think about the amount of market share that Amazon has in the U.S., this quite substantially is -- increases the addressable market for Pay with Venmo.

顯然，如果你考慮一下亞馬遜在美國的市場份額，這在很大程度上是——增加了 Pay with Venmo 的潛在市場。

And Pay with Venmo is one of the key revenue drivers for Venmo going forward.

使用 Venmo 付款是 Venmo 未來的主要收入驅動因素之一。

I just -- as I think about the journey that Venmo has been on, this obviously is a punctuation point for sure.

我只是——當我想到 Venmo 的旅程時，這顯然是一個標點符號。

But even this year, Venmo will be transaction margin-positive.

但即使在今年，Venmo 的交易利潤率也將是積極的。

That is a major milestone for that team, right on track to deliver the $900 million and obviously exit the year at an accelerating growth rate.

對於該團隊來說，這是一個重要的里程碑，正朝著實現 9 億美元的目標前進，並且顯然以加速的增長率退出了這一年。

And this partnership with Amazon will no doubt take that to the next level.

毫無疑問，與亞馬遜的這種合作關係將把它提升到一個新的水平。

Colin, I'd just add real quickly that -- look, Dan and I both appreciate that the investor community probably is getting tired of us talking about eBay and eBay results, but arguably not more so than we are, but this is the other side of that coin.

Colin，我要快速補充一下——看，Dan 和我都很欣賞投資者社區可能已經厭倦了我們談論 eBay 和 eBay 的結果，但可以說不比我們更多，但這是另一個那枚硬幣的一面。

It's as simple as that.

就這麼簡單。

I mean, this would not be allowed had we not taken the steps that we had.

我的意思是，如果我們不採取我們已經採取的措施，這是不允許的。

And so we're quite excited about this and what it bodes for the future.

因此，我們對此以及它對未來的預示感到非常興奮。

Next question comes from the line of Lisa Ellis of MoffettNathanson.

下一個問題來自 MoffettNathanson 的 Lisa Ellis。

I'm going to focus on the rollout of the new PayPal and Venmo app.

我將專注於推出新的 PayPal 和 Venmo 應用程序。

Can you -- I know you made some comments in the prepared remarks, but can you elaborate a bit further and give a little more color on the early impact you're seeing maybe beyond user growth, engagement growth, et cetera, including maybe some aspects so far that have surprised you?

你能 - 我知道你在準備好的評論中發表了一些評論，但你能否進一步詳細說明，並為你看到的早期影響提供更多色彩，可能超出用戶增長、參與度增長等，可能包括一些迄今為止讓您感到驚訝的方面？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Lisa.

謝謝，麗莎。

Good to hear your voice.

很高興聽到你的聲音。

So any time you put something substantial out into the market -- and this is really the first giant revamp that we've done of our PayPal consumer app, and it's pretty massive, complete redesign.

所以任何時候你把一些實質性的東西推向市場——這確實是我們對我們的 PayPal 消費者應用程序進行的第一次重大改造，它是相當大規模的、完全的重新設計。

Typically on that, so what you find is you've got declines in engagement as people kind of like work their way through discovery of it.

通常在這一點上，所以你會發現你的參與度有所下降，因為人們有點喜歡通過發現它來工作。

And then what you have is over time, that, that really starts to accelerate, at least that's your hope.

然後你所擁有的是隨著時間的推移，那真的開始加速，至少那是你的希望。

This has been completely the opposite of that, which is, I guess, biggest delay, I'm not sure it's a surprise to me, but we are seeing really meaningful lifts in terms of discoverability of the breadth of our product and service line right now.

這完全相反，我猜這是最大的延遲，我不確定這對我來說是否感到驚訝，但我們在產品和服務線的廣度的可發現性方面看到了真正有意義的提升現在。

We talked about PayPal shopping, the full integration of Honey into the PayPal app.

我們談到了 PayPal 購物，將 Honey 完全集成到 PayPal 應用程序中。

Honey now is completely mobile and not just desktop, and that's powering our whole tab of that.

Honey 現在是完全移動的，而不僅僅是桌面，這為我們的整個標籤提供了動力。

We've seen a 25x lift in people exploring that tab and starting to put deals into their wallets and that kind of thing.

我們已經看到探索該標籤並開始將交易放入錢包之類的人增加了 25 倍。

It's pretty amazing actually.

這實際上是相當驚人的。

And then on things like crypto, first-time user, once we did the app, went up by 15%.

然後在加密等方面，首次使用該應用程序的用戶增加了 15%。

Our strongest week ever for first-time users was like last week.

對於首次使用的用戶來說，我們最強勁的一周就像上週一樣。

And we've had strong weeks for first-time user growth on that.

我們在這方面經歷了強勁的幾週首次用戶增長。

But clearly, the new app is driving both discoverability and conversion on the crypto side.

但很明顯，新應用程序正在推動加密方面的可發現性和轉換。

And then I'm quite excited about what's happening with cash card because cash card is kind of like a debit card, right?

然後我對現金卡的情況感到非常興奮，因為現金卡有點像借記卡，對吧？

It links into the balance and it can be used offline and obviously online.

它鏈接到天平，可以離線使用，也可以在線使用。

And this is a big part of our omni-strategic thrust and to see that go up, those enrollments go up by 35%.

這是我們全方位戰略推動力的重要組成部分，為了看到這一增長，這些入學人數增加了 35%。

And remember, this is really early days, right?

請記住，現在還處於早期階段，對吧？

We fully ramped in the middle of October globally, so this is early on.

我們在 10 月中旬在全球範圍內全面升級，所以這還很早。

And I usually think of early on as, okay, how do we start to claw back to where we were and then start to move forward as customers get it?

我通常很早就想到，好吧，我們如何開始回到原來的位置，然後在客戶得到它時開始前進？

This was a leap forward.

這是一個飛躍。

Look, there are a lot of things that we're going to do to improve the customer experience.

看，我們將做很多事情來改善客戶體驗。

We are putting [Fiserv] (corrected by company after the call) now into our bill payment, expanding our bill payment quite dramatically, expanding the usability and kind of just the simplicity of it.

我們現在將 [Fiserv]（在電話會議後由公司更正）放入我們的賬單支付中，極大地擴展了我們的賬單支付，擴展了可用性和簡單性。

But each and every one of the products and services, we are looking at the feedback we're getting and just making small little changes to keep increasing.

但是每一個產品和服務，我們都在關注我們得到的反饋，並只是做一些小的改變來保持增長。

This is going to be -- I didn't think it was going to be a big bang.

這將是——我不認為它會是一個大爆炸。

It actually has turned out to be a relatively big bang on introduction, but I really think of this as evolutionary quarter by quarter by quarter.

它實際上已經證明是一個相對大的介紹，但我真的認為這是一個季度一個季度的進化。

We will launch high-yield savings in the next several months, that will begin to ramp.

我們將在接下來的幾個月內推出高收益儲蓄，這將開始增加。

We'll start to put on things like equity investing.

我們將開始進行股權投資之類的事情。

We anticipate doing that next year.

我們預計明年會這樣做。

And there'll be more and more products and services to help customers engage more and more.

並且將會有越來越多的產品和服務來幫助客戶越來越多地參與。

And that's why like that ARPA of wallet users versus checkout-only, again, early, but to see that already leaping up to 2x that of checkout-only.

這就是為什麼像錢包用戶的 ARPA 與僅結賬相比，再次提早，但看到已經躍升到僅結賬的 2 倍。

John and I are quite excited about the impact of the initiatives that we're putting into place.

約翰和我對我們正在實施的舉措的影響感到非常興奮。

And they are clearly going to drive a lot of growth for us as we look forward.

正如我們所期待的那樣，它們顯然將為我們帶來很多增長。

Next question comes from the line of David Togut of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

Looking at the third quarter KPIs, they're certainly strong and broadly in line with your 5-year guide.

從第三季度的 KPI 來看，它們肯定很強大，並且與您的 5 年指南大體一致。

And you've called out some short-term factors and tough comparisons for taking guidance down for the fourth quarter and guiding 2022, at least your preliminary guide below the 5-year model.

你已經提出了一些短期因素和艱難的比較，以降低第四季度的指導和指導 2022 年，至少你的初步指導低於 5 年模型。

But when you look at 2022 in some of the shorter-term factors you've called out like supply chain issues and return of consumers more to the physical POS, how confident are you that some of these issues are actually shorter term versus potentially longer-lasting that might stretch into 2023?

但是，當您從您提到的一些短期因素（例如供應鏈問題和消費者更多地返回實體 POS）中看待 2022 年時，您對其中一些問題實際上是短期而不是可能長期存在的信心有多大——持續到 2023 年？

Okay.

好的。

David, let me talk very quickly about Q3.

大衛，讓我快速談談第三季度。

And then I'm going to have John talk about our Q4 guidance and our confidence in 2022.

然後我將讓約翰談論我們的第四季度指導和我們對 2022 年的信心。

So you're right, actually, if you look at Q3, and let me just talk about revenue, TPV and maybe engagement as 3 metrics on that.

所以你是對的，實際上，如果你看看第三季度，讓我談談收入、TPV 和參與度作為這三個指標。

Look, on -- the way that I think about our business right now is what's happening on our MS business because eBay is a temporal thing.

看，我現在對我們業務的看法是我們的 MS 業務正在發生的事情，因為 eBay 是一個暫時的東西。

It's just going through the system right now.

它現在只是通過系統。

It's less than 3% of our TPV, it's less than 4% of our revenues and drop.

它不到我們 TPV 的 3%，不到我們收入的 4%，而且還在下降。

And so really, our business is our MS business going forward.

所以說真的，我們的業務就是我們未來的 MS 業務。

And if I look at revenue growth, I think this is really interesting because I've examined this quite carefully.

如果我看一下收入增長，我認為這真的很有趣，因為我已經非常仔細地研究了這一點。

If I go back 5 years, if you look at our MS revenue growth, in Q3 of 2017, it was 24%; in 2018, in Q3, it was 17%; 2019, it was 23% then it jumps up to 26%; and in the middle of the pandemic, Q3 2020 and Q3 2021, this quarter, it's 25%.

如果我回到 5 年前，如果你看看我們的 MS 收入增長，在 2017 年第三季度，它是 24%； 2018 年第三季度為 17%； 2019 年為 23%，然後躍升至 26%；在大流行期間，即 2020 年第三季度和 2021 年第三季度，本季度為 25%。

And so like people talk about like reopening stocks and all, like that isn't us.

因此，就像人們談論重新開放股票之類的那樣，那不是我們。

Our MS business is going from strength to strength.

我們的 MS 業務正在不斷壯大。

We've seen a leap forward in digital, and that is continuing, if you look at it in our MS. And John will talk about it in Q4 and as we look next year.

如果您在我們的 MS 中看到它，我們已經看到了數字化的飛躍，並且這種飛躍還在繼續。約翰將在第四季度和我們明年討論它。

Same thing on TPV.

冠捷也是一樣。

TPV in Q3 of 2018, MS, now I'm talking about MS was 27%.

2018 年第三季度的 TPV，MS，現在我說的是 MS 是 27%。

It jumped up to 29%.

它躍升至 29%。

Then in Q3 2020 jumped to 40%.

然後在 2020 年第三季度躍升至 40%。

And over that 40%, we're growing this quarter at 31%.

超過 40%，我們本季度的增長率為 31%。

And so like these are all really, really strong numbers.

所以就像這些都是非常非常強大的數字。

And if I look at -- even like transactions, which I think is a really, really interesting, we did 4.9 billion transactions in Q3, this last quarter.

如果我看 - 即使像交易一樣，我認為這非常非常有趣，我們在上個季度的第三季度完成了 49 億筆交易。

If you go back a year ago, we did about 4 billion.

如果你回到一年前，我們做了大約 40 億次。

We're almost up 1 billion transactions in a year in the quarter, and our transactions ex-eBay are up 31% year-over-year.

我們在本季度的一年交易量幾乎增加了 10 億筆，我們在 eBay 以外的交易量同比增長 31%。

Our TPA transactions for active double-digit growth for the second quarter in a row.

我們的 TPA 交易連續第二季度實現兩位數的活躍增長。

Again, ex-eBay in the third quarter, our TPA was up 18%.

同樣，在第三季度前 eBay，我們的 TPA 增長了 18%。

And so these are -- yes, of course, we get hit by some of these exogenous things that go on, but if I look at the strength of the core business, every single metric is way above even our forecast is way above our medium-term guidance.

所以這些是——是的，當然，我們會受到一些外部因素的影響，但如果我看看核心業務的實力，每一個指標都遠高於我們的預測，甚至遠高於我們的中等水平長期指導。

And that's kind of like what gives us just a ton of confidence.

這有點像給了我們很大信心的東西。

And we're obviously being, I think, appropriately cautious and conservative as we look forward at this time, but I feel like if I look at what the real part of our business is, every metric is trending pretty strongly right now.

而且，我認為，在我們目前展望的時候，我們顯然是適當的謹慎和保守，但我覺得如果我看看我們業務的真正部分是什麼，現在每個指標都呈現出相當強勁的趨勢。

David, let me hit a couple of points here regarding some of the assumptions about our outlook.

大衛，讓我在這裡針對我們的前景的一些假設提出幾點意見。

So first, with respect to the reopening of the economy, our basic assumption is that, that's sort of a slow and steady pace similar to what we've seen here more recently.

首先，關於經濟的重新開放，我們的基本假設是，這是一種緩慢而穩定的步伐，類似於我們最近在這裡看到的情況。

With respect to supply chain or labor shortages, look, I don't see a quick fix to that, so that could be with us for some period of time.

關於供應鍊或勞動力短缺，看，我看不出有什麼快速解決辦法，所以這可能會在一段時間內伴隨我們。

And I think the pressure there is probably more acute on some of the SMB segment versus large enterprises, and so that is baked into our assumptions as well.

而且我認為，與大型企業相比，某些 SMB 部門的壓力可能更大，因此我們的假設也包含了這一點。

We're also not going to have the benefit of stimulus next year or likely not based upon what we see today.

我們明年也不會享受刺激措施的好處，或者可能不會基於我們今天看到的情況。

And then the last point I'd make is around eBay.

然後我要說的最後一點是關於 eBay。

eBay, if you think about the high teens mark that we put out there for revenue growth, the impact of eBay year-over-year in terms of a headwind is about 200 basis points if you just take what eBay represents in our business in 2021 compared to 2022.

eBay，如果您考慮一下我們為收入增長而提出的高青少年分數，如果您僅考慮 2021 年 eBay 在我們業務中的代表，那麼 eBay 在逆風方面的同比影響約為 200 個基點與 2022 年相比。

Said differently, though, if you were to exclude eBay in both years, the revenue growth is 22%.

不過，換一種說法，如果你將這兩年都排除在外，收入增長率為 22%。

And so that's exceedingly strong and I think the best proxy for how to think about our business going forward.

所以這非常強大，我認為這是如何思考我們未來業務的最佳代表。

And so wrapping all of that together and sort of tying it to where we stand right now with the guidance that we just gave today, if you go back to the beginning of the year and the guidance that we provided, 50 million net new actives, roughly $25.5 billion of revenue, we're effectively right there.

因此，將所有這些結合在一起，並根據我們今天剛剛提供的指導將其與我們現在的立場聯繫起來，如果你回到年初和我們提供的指導，5000 萬淨新活躍用戶，大約 255 億美元的收入，我們實際上就在那裡。

And I think very, very importantly, that was the basis for the 5-year plan, the medium-term guidance that we laid out just a few weeks after that.

我認為非常非常重要的是，這是 5 年計劃的基礎，也是我們在幾週後製定的中期指導方針。

And so that's a way of saying that we are right on track with what we laid out at the beginning of the year with our medium-term guidance.

因此，這是一種說法，我們在年初制定的中期指導方針中走上了正軌。

Next question comes from the line of Darrin Peller with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究公司的 Darrin Peller。

I just want to touch on the organic trends of the business, mainly the KPI, net new actives, and just maybe if you can give a little more color on the organic dynamics you're seeing now 1.5 years into COVID in terms of gross adds versus the churn levels?

我只想談談業務的有機趨勢，主要是 KPI、淨新活躍度，也許如果你能對你現在在 COVID 1.5 年以來看到的有機動態提供更多的色彩，就總增加而言與流失水平相比？

We're also getting more questions on '22 guidance and some of the inputs there.

我們還收到了更多關於 '22 指南和那裡的一些意見的問題。

You just touched on that, John, so thanks.

約翰，你剛剛談到了這一點，謝謝。

But thinking about the underlying sort of user growth potential there, engagement potential, and then really just reminding us of your conviction and the drivers getting to 750 million of NNAs long term?

但是想想那裡潛在的用戶增長潛力，參與潛力，然後真的只是提醒我們你的信念以及長期獲得 7.5 億 NNA 的驅動因素？

Well, let me talk a little bit about NNAs.

好吧，讓我談談 NNA。

So 13.3 million in the quarter, up about 2 million from last quarter, growing 15% year-over-year, unlike a lot of companies that experienced growth in the off time and then are unwinding.

因此，本季度為 1330 萬，比上一季度增加約 200 萬，同比增長 15%，這與許多在關閉時間經歷增長然後正在解散的公司不同。

Our growth remains incredibly strong on the NNA side.

我們在 NNA 方面的增長仍然非常強勁。

I mean, think about it in the minute that we've been talking so far, Darren.

我的意思是，在我們到目前為止一直在談論的那一刻考慮一下，達倫。

We've got -- we put on about 100 consumers and 9 new merchants.

我們有——我們吸引了大約 100 個消費者和 9 個新商家。

We are putting on 1.5 consumers every second of the quarter, every 6 seconds we put on another merchant.

我們在本季度每秒吸引 1.5 個消費者，每 6 秒我們就會吸引另一個商家。

It's really unbelievable.

真是難以置信。

And if I look 5 years ago, and you remember this, 5 years ago, we put on 13 million net new actives for the year.

如果我看 5 年前，你還記得這一點，5 年前，我們在這一年增加了 1300 萬淨新活躍用戶。

This quarter alone, and we put on 110 million net new actives since January of 2020.

僅本季度，自 2020 年 1 月以來，我們就增加了 1.1 億淨新活躍用戶。

And as we said, I think, in our press release, we expect to end the year north of 430 million actives on the platform.

正如我們所說，我認為，在我們的新聞稿中，我們預計今年年底平台上的活躍用戶將超過 4.3 億。

So obviously, continued strong growth.

所以很明顯，持續強勁的增長。

But as we look forward to that $750 million, Darren, there are 2 places that our net new actives come from.

但是當我們期待這 7.5 億美元時，Darren，我們的淨新活躍用戶來自兩個地方。

One is top of the funnel, and top of the funnel is actually pretty strong right now and remain so.

一個是漏斗頂部，漏斗頂部實際上現在非常強大，並且仍然如此。

It's a kind of a must-have platform for merchants and consumers, and scale begets scale in this business.

對於商家和消費者來說，它是一種必備的平台，在這個行業中，規模催生了規模。

But as you get bigger and bigger, the bottom of the funnel becomes equally -- it's not even more important.

但隨著你變得越來越大，漏斗的底部變得同樣重要——它不再重要了。

And so reduction in churn becomes a really important element of our ability to get to the 750 million.

因此，減少客戶流失成為我們達到 7.5 億的能力的一個非常重要的因素。

That's why we're so excited about what we're seeing in terms of our TPA numbers, again, normalize it ex-eBay, up 18%.

這就是為什麼我們對我們所看到的 TPA 數據如此興奮的原因，再次將其從 eBay 正常化，增長 18%。

Last quarter, I think it was up 17%, double-digit growth even with eBay.

上個季度，我認為它增長了 17%，即使是 eBay 也是兩位數的增長。

And at 2 quarters in a row, some of the things I was talking to Lisa about in terms of the engagement on the app, those are things that the more people engaged, the more people get cash cards utilizing that service offline.

連續兩個季度，我與 Lisa 就應用程序的參與度談論了一些事情，這些事情是參與的人越多，就越多人離線使用該服務獲得現金卡。

We see halo effects inside the business.

我們看到了企業內部的光環效應。

Buy Now, Pay Later, all of that actually affects churn rate.

現在購買，以後付款，所有這些實際上都會影響客戶流失率。

And if we can keep a consistent top of the funnel, maybe even improve that a little bit, but reduce our churn rate, you'll start to see net new actives actually accelerate going forward.

如果我們能夠保持漏斗頂部的一致，甚至可以稍微改善一點，但降低我們的流失率，你會開始看到淨新活躍度實際上在加速前進。

And so we remain still quite confident in the 750 million, but that's what the drivers are of that, Darren.

所以我們仍然對 7.5 億充滿信心，但這就是驅動因素，達倫。

Next question comes from the line of James Faucette of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 James Faucette。

John, I know you kind of touched around this in your commentary, but if we think about all the irons and initiatives that you have in the fire right now, how should we think about kind of the medium-term progression of your operating margins?

約翰，我知道你在評論中談到了這一點，但如果我們考慮一下你現在面臨的所有鐵桿和舉措，我們應該如何考慮你的營業利潤率的中期進展？

I know you also highlighted that you want to make investments, but just trying to make sure that we try to align our own expectations with how you're thinking about your planning purposes kind of going forward?

我知道你也強調你想進行投資，但只是想確保我們努力使我們自己的期望與你對未來規劃目標的看法保持一致？

Sure, James.

當然，詹姆斯。

It's good to speak with you.

很高興和你說話。

Well, I'll start by saying that, and I would hope that people appreciate and agree with this, but I don't think there's ever been a more important time to invest in our business than right now.

好吧，我首先要這麼說，我希望人們欣賞並同意這一點，但我認為沒有比現在更重要的時間來投資我們的業務了。

This is a precious opportunity that we have with some of the secular tailwinds.

這是我們在一些長期順風下擁有的寶貴機會。

We're fortunate in that the margins in our business want to go up.

我們很幸運，因為我們的業務利潤率想要上升。

We've demonstrated that we can scale at a very low marginal cost.

我們已經證明我們可以以非常低的邊際成本進行擴展。

We've got tremendous opportunities, some of which we talked about today, that give us confidence that over our planning horizon, our margins will go up.

我們有巨大的機會，我們今天談到了其中的一些機會，這讓我們相信在我們的計劃範圍內，我們的利潤會上升。

That's not something that I think we lose a ton of sleep about.

我認為這不是我們失眠的原因。

Quite frankly, I think it's -- the more challenging dynamic is where to invest, where we can get that return that's expected.

坦率地說，我認為這是 - 更具挑戰性的動態是在哪裡投資，我們可以在哪裡獲得預期的回報。

And if you think about the last couple of years being 2020 and this year 2021, our operating expenses have grown about 20% in each of those years.

如果您考慮過去幾年是 2020 年和今年 2021 年，那麼我們的運營費用在這些年中每年都增長了約 20%。

And that's not -- I would discourage you from thinking about that as sort of like onetime spend related to customer acquisition or something like that.

事實並非如此——我不鼓勵您將其視為與客戶獲取相關的一次性支出或類似的事情。

There's a lot of engineering costs around people that are punching a keyboard to write code, and that's still with us today.

敲擊鍵盤編寫代碼的人需要花費大量的工程成本，而今天仍然存在。

So even as we talk about the high single-digit growth next year, that's on top of 2 years of 20% growth.

因此，即使我們談論明年的高個位數增長，這也是在 2 年 20% 的增長之上。

But for us, it's also important not to spread ourselves too thin and to make sure that we are prioritizing appropriately and some of prioritizing involves say no to certain things as well.

但對我們來說，同樣重要的是不要把自己分散得太細，並確保我們適當地優先考慮，一些優先考慮也涉及對某些事情說不。

And so I think we've laid out a pretty clear plan over the next few years with our focus on things like the digital wallet, building out commerce capabilities, continue to monetize Venmo that give us ample opportunity to invest.

所以我認為我們在未來幾年制定了一個非常明確的計劃，我們將重點放在數字錢包等方面，建立商業能力，繼續通過 Venmo 貨幣化，為我們提供充足的投資機會。

But as I noted in my remarks, we don't manage the business to have margin expansion for the next quarter or frankly, even for the next year.

但正如我在講話中指出的那樣，我們無法管理業務在下個季度或坦率地說，即使是在明年也不會擴大利潤率。

We're looking at how we create a company over the next 5 years that can have the same type of market value appreciation that we've experienced over the last 5. And the decisions that we make really just line up with that much more so than trying to maximize for any particular time period.

我們正在研究如何在未來 5 年內創建一家能夠擁有與過去 5 年所經歷的相同類型的市場價值升值的公司。我們做出的決定真的與此一致而不是試圖在任何特定時間段內最大化。

And so maybe not directly answering your question, but our margins are going to go up over the long term, and we're not going to be handcuffed to doing that from one period to the next at the expense of like creating shareholder value.

所以也許不能直接回答你的問題，但從長遠來看，我們的利潤率會上升，而且我們不會因為犧牲創造股東價值而從一個時期到另一個時期這樣做。

We have time for one last question.

我們有時間回答最後一個問題。

It comes from Jason Kupferberg of Bank of America.

它來自美國銀行的 Jason Kupferberg。

I guess, you're now tracking to more of the lower end of the $50 million to $55 million target for the year, previously thought to be closer to the higher end.

我想，你現在正在追踪今年 5000 萬至 5500 萬美元目標的更多低端，以前被認為更接近高端。

So I'm just wondering, is this some incremental softness in gross adds?

所以我只是想知道，這是總增加的一些增量柔軟度嗎？

Is it higher churn?

是不是更高的流失率？

A decline in new activations?

新激活減少？

And it seems like we may be down a little bit quarter-over-quarter in Q4, but normally, there's some positive seasonality.

看起來我們在第四季度可能會比上一季度有所下降，但通常情況下會有一些積極的季節性因素。

So I just wanted to get your take on what's going on with the NNAs.

所以我只是想了解一下 NNA 的情況。

Yes.

是的。

Great question, Jason.

好問題，傑森。

Thank you for that.

謝謝你。

If you remember, we started the year at $50 million, then we raised it $52 million to $55 million.

如果你還記得的話，我們年初的時候是 5000 萬美元，然後我們將它籌集到了 5200 萬美元到 5500 萬美元。

And then we thought we'd be towards the higher end of the $52 million to $55.

然後我們認為我們會接近 5200 萬美元到 55 美元的高端。

At this point, we're just being consistent with kind of our revenue guide as well.

在這一點上，我們也只是與我們的收入指南保持一致。

We're going into the heart of the holiday, you're exactly right.

我們正在進入假期的中心，你是對的。

If holiday season shapes up like it did last year, then we'll have more than $52 million organic because there'll be a lot more shopping.

如果假日季節像去年一樣，那麼我們將擁有超過 5200 萬美元的有機商品，因為會有更多的購物。

And if it doesn't, then we'll have a little bit less.

如果沒有，那麼我們會少一點。

So it's very consistent with kind of just being, I think, prudent and cautious given some of the trends that we're seeing and others are talking about, again, supply chain shortages, people can't shop in it.

因此，鑑於我們看到的一些趨勢以及其他人正在談論的一些趨勢，我認為，這與一種謹慎和謹慎的態度非常一致，同樣，供應鏈短缺，人們無法在其中購物。

If consumer confidence is down, people do more in-store, we'll get less M&A than we typically might.

如果消費者信心下降，人們在店內做更多的事情，我們將獲得比通常情況下更少的併購。

If holiday season goes as it did last year, we'll get more than we're talking about right now.

如果假期像去年一樣，我們將得到比我們現在談論的更多的東西。

So I just think it's just very consistent with the guide that we gave.

所以我只是認為這與我們提供的指南非常一致。

And again, as John mentioned, we've had a good start to the quarter.

同樣，正如約翰所說，我們在本季度有一個良好的開端。

We've had a pretty strong last week with 4Q and -- but we're early on right now.

上週我們的第四季度表現非常強勁 - 但我們現在還處於早期階段。

And so we don't like it when we are at the midpoint of our guidance, it is or any of that kind of thing.

因此，當我們處於指導的中點時，我們不喜歡它，它是或任何類似的事情。

We are used to being a company that puts out things and then beats what it puts out.

我們習慣於成為一家推出產品然後擊敗它推出的公司。

And we want to assure that what we say is appropriate and appropriately conservative on it.

我們要確保我們所說的內容是適當的，並且在此方面是適當保守的。

So that's how I think I would answer that question, Jason.

所以我想我會這樣回答這個問題，傑森。

All right.

好的。

Operator, thank you very much.

接線員，非常感謝。

Jason, thank you for that last question.

傑森，謝謝你的最後一個問題。

Really look forward to talking to all of you over the course of the next couple of days and weeks and at a number of different conferences.

真的很期待在接下來的幾天和幾週內以及在許多不同的會議上與你們所有人交談。

And thank you for all your support and your time today.

感謝您今天的所有支持和時間。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。