PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Gabriel, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to PayPal Holdings earnings conference call for the fourth quarter and full year 2020. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Ms. Gabrielle Rabinovitch, Vice President, Corporate Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

各位下午好。我叫 Gabriel，今天將擔任本次電話會議的接線員。此刻，我謹代表公司歡迎各位參加 PayPal Holdings 2020 年第四季及全年財報電話會議。（接線員指示）現在我想介紹今天會議的主持人：公司財務與投資人關係副總裁 Gabrielle Rabinovitch 女士。請開始。

Thank you, Gabriel. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. Welcome to PayPal's earnings conference call for the fourth quarter and full year 2020. Joining me today on the call are Dan Schulman, our President and CEO; and John Rainey, our Chief Financial Officer and EVP, Global Customer Operations.

謝謝你，Gabriel。各位下午好，感謝各位加入我們。歡迎參加 PayPal 2020 年第四季及全年財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：我們的總裁兼執行長 Dan Schulman，以及我們的財務長暨全球客戶營運執行副總裁 John Rainey。

We're providing a slide presentation to accompany our commentary. This conference call is also being webcast, and both the presentation and call are available on the Investor Relations section of our website.

我們提供投影片簡報以配合我們的說明。本次電話會議亦同步網路直播，簡報與會議內容皆可於我們網站的投資人關係專區取得。

In discussing our company's performance, we'll refer to some non-GAAP measures. You can find the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the presentation accompanying this conference call.

在討論公司表現時，我們將引用部分非 GAAP 指標。您可在本次電話會議隨附的簡報中，找到這些非 GAAP 指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標之調節表。

Management will make forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations, forecasts and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. These statements include our guidance for the first quarter and full year 2021. Our actual results may differ materially from these statements. You can find more information about risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our results in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC and available on the Investor Relations section of our website.

管理層將作出前瞻性陳述，該等陳述係基於我們目前的預期、預測與假設，並涉及風險與不確定性。這些陳述包括我們對 2021 年第一季及全年之指引。我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述存在重大差異。關於可能影響我們結果的風險、不確定性及其他因素之更多資訊，請參閱我們最近一期以 10-K 表格提交的年度報告，以及以 10-Q 表格提交的季度報告；上述文件已向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）申報，並可於我們網站的投資人關係專區取得。

You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. All information in this presentation is as of today's date, February 3, 2021. We expressly disclaim any obligation to update this information.

您不應過度依賴任何前瞻性陳述。本簡報中的所有資訊截至今日（2021 年 2 月 3 日）為止。我們明確聲明不承擔更新此等資訊之任何義務。

With that, let me turn the call over to Dan.

接下來，讓我把電話交給 Dan。

Thanks, Gabrielle, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. I'm pleased to report that PayPal just completed the strongest year in our history, achieving record growth in net new active customers, volume, revenue, operating income, earnings and free cash flow. Consumers and businesses of all sizes have embraced a new digital era, erasing the distinction between online and off-line.

謝謝你，Gabrielle，也謝謝各位今天加入我們。我很高興報告，PayPal 剛完成公司史上最強勁的一年，在淨新增活躍客戶數、交易量、營收、營業利益、獲利以及自由現金流方面皆創下紀錄。各種規模的消費者與企業都擁抱了新的數位時代，線上與線下之間的界線正在消失。

A digital-first world is no longer our future. It's our current reality, and it will forever change the way we interact across almost all elements of our lives.

數位優先的世界不再是我們的未來，而是我們當下的現實，並將永久改變我們在生活幾乎所有面向的互動方式。

At the beginning of the pandemic, consumers in lockdown had no choice but to do all of their shopping online. Today, the vast majority of consumers state that post pandemic, they will continue to shop online at their current elevated levels because it is more convenient, easier and saves time. Retailers are rapidly adapting to a new landscape, adjusting their strategy from encouraging consumers to visit their stores to optimizing for home delivery. The pandemic has accelerated a digital wave of change across almost every industry by 3 to 5 years, unleashing a profound and permanent structural transformation. Our results in Q4 highlight these strengths.

在疫情初期，封城中的消費者別無選擇，只能把所有購物都轉到線上。如今，絕大多數消費者表示，在疫情過後，他們仍將以目前提高後的水準持續線上購物，因為更便利、更容易且更省時。零售商正快速適應新局勢，將策略從鼓勵消費者到店，轉為優化到府配送。疫情使幾乎每個產業的數位變革浪潮加速了 3 到 5 年，釋放出深刻且永久的結構性轉型。我們第四季的結果凸顯了這些優勢。

In the quarter, we added 16 million net new active customers, including an incremental 1.4 million new merchants. For the year, we delivered a record 73 million net new actives, ending the year with 377 million active accounts, up 24%. We now have over 29 million merchants interacting with nearly 350 million consumers. In 2021, we expect to add another 50 million net new active accounts.

本季我們淨新增 1,600 萬名活躍客戶，其中包含額外新增 140 萬名新商戶。全年我們創紀錄地淨新增 7,300 萬名活躍帳戶，年底活躍帳戶達 3.77 億個，年增 24%。我們目前有超過 2,900 萬名商戶與近 3.5 億名消費者互動。2021 年，我們預期將再淨新增 5,000 萬個活躍帳戶。

Equally important, our daily active users remain elevated versus a year ago, up 29% from Q4 of 2019. Our expanding scale and increasing engagement drove a record 4.4 billion transactions in the quarter, up 27%. Our total payment volumes in Q4 were $277 billion, up 36% on an FXN basis.

同樣重要的是，我們的每日活躍用戶相較一年前仍維持在高檔，較 2019 年第四季成長 29%。規模擴大與互動提升帶動本季交易筆數創紀錄達 44 億筆，年增 27%。第四季總支付交易量（TPV）為 2,770 億美元，以 FXN（匯率中性）基礎計年增 36%。

Our TPV, excluding eBay, was up a record 40% percent as we continue to gain market share. eBay TPV grew at 1% and exited the year at just under 6% of our total volume. For the full year, our TPV was up 31% to $936 billion. In Q2 of 2020, our quarterly revenue surpassed $5 billion for the first time. In Q4, we surpassed $6 billion for the first time, with our quarterly revenues growing by 23% to $6.116 billion.

我們的 TPV（不含 eBay）創紀錄成長 40%，持續提升市占率。eBay TPV 成長 1%，年底占我們總交易量的比重降至略低於 6%。全年 TPV 成長 31% 至 9,360 億美元。2020 年第二季，我們的季度營收首次突破 50 億美元。第四季，我們首次突破 60 億美元，季度營收成長 23% 至 61.16 億美元。

For the year, our revenues grew by a record 22% on an FX-neutral basis to $21.45 billion. Our non-GAAP EPS grew a record 31% to $3.88, and our free cash flow increased by 48% of to $5 billion.

全年營收以匯率中性基礎計創紀錄成長 22% 至 214.5 億美元。非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）創紀錄成長 31% 至 3.88 美元，自由現金流增加 48% 至 50 億美元。

Venmo continued its strong performance with Q4 TPV of $47 billion, up 60% year-over-year. Venmo's customer base grew by 32% in 2020, ending just shy of 70 million active accounts. This continued momentum reinforces our conviction that revenues will approach $900 million in 2021.

Venmo 持續強勁表現，第四季 TPV 為 470 億美元，年增 60%。Venmo 的客戶基礎在 2020 年成長 32%，年底活躍帳戶接近 7,000 萬。這股持續動能強化了我們的信心：2021 年營收將接近 9 億美元。

In early January, eligible customers were able to cash their stimulus checks within the Venmo app for the first time. Later this month, our Venmo credit card will be available to 100% of our base. And in the coming months, we will launch the ability to buy, hold and sell crypto via the Venmo app. And finally, our revamped Pay with Venmo experience will launch in Q2, offering a best-in-class checkout experience.

在 1 月初，符合資格的客戶首次可在 Venmo App 內兌現其紓困支票。本月稍晚，我們的 Venmo 信用卡將對 100% 的用戶群開放。在接下來幾個月，我們將透過 Venmo App 推出買入、持有與賣出加密貨幣的功能。最後，我們重新打造的「使用 Venmo 付款」體驗將於第二季推出，提供同級最佳的結帳體驗。

Today's digital reality is rapidly accelerating the need for a digital wallet that encompasses payments, financial services and shopping. This year, our digital wallet will change more than it has ever changed before, significantly increasing its functionality within a single, integrated and beautifully designed app, that should meaningfully increase consumer engagement.

當前的數位現實正快速加速市場對數位錢包的需求，而該錢包需涵蓋支付、金融服務與購物。今年，我們的數位錢包將迎來前所未有的變革，在單一、整合且設計精美的 App 中大幅提升功能，預期將顯著提高消費者互動。

In 2020, we made significant progress in expanding the functionality of our PayPal and Venmo wallets. We added the ability to buy, sell and hold cryptocurrencies, the option to buy now and pay later, direct deposit, check cashing and bill payment capabilities. We introduced Venmo and PayPal QR codes for in-store purchasing as well as our Venmo credit card. This year, we expect to work with our financial industry partners to introduce even more functionality, including budget and savings tools, investment alternatives, including, but not limited to crypto, and enhanced bill pay options.

2020 年，我們在擴展 PayPal 與 Venmo 錢包功能方面取得重大進展。我們新增了買入、賣出與持有加密貨幣的能力、「先買後付」選項、直接入帳、支票兌現與帳單支付功能。我們推出 Venmo 與 PayPal 的 QR Code 以支援店內購買，並推出 Venmo 信用卡。今年，我們預期將與金融產業合作夥伴合作導入更多功能，包括預算與儲蓄工具、投資替代方案（包括但不限於加密貨幣），以及強化的帳單支付選項。

We also intend to fully integrate the entire suite of Honey's shopping tools, including wish lists, price monitoring, deals, coupons and rewards for use in the physical and digital worlds.

我們也計畫將 Honey 的整套購物工具全面整合，包括願望清單、價格監控、優惠、折價券與獎勵，讓其可在實體與數位世界中使用。

I'm very pleased with the early reception of our PayPal and Venmo QR codes, which are now accepted at over 600,000 retail locations. In 2020, we signed 29 large enterprises, including CVS, Foot Locker, Nike, Five Below, Levi's, Bloomingdales, Macy's and Uniqlo, and our early in-store results are encouraging. Merchants are experiencing double-digit increases in average basket sizes with consumers who frequently use our QR codes. And we are seeing a 19% increase in TPV from consumers who use our QR codes.

我對 PayPal 與 Venmo QR Code 的早期市場反應感到非常滿意，目前已在超過 60 萬個零售據點可使用。2020 年，我們簽下 29 家大型企業客戶，包括 CVS、Foot Locker、Nike、Five Below、Levi's、Bloomingdale's、Macy's 與 Uniqlo，而我們早期的店內成效令人鼓舞。對於經常使用我們 QR Code 的消費者，商戶的平均客單價出現雙位數成長。我們也看到使用 QR Code 的消費者所帶來的 TPV 增加 19%。

Across all of our in-store efforts, including QR, tap and pay and cards, we processed over $20 billion of TPV, with almost 10 million consumers using PayPal in store. We also saw an exceptional response from our crypto launch. Even with high initial expectations, the volume of crypto traded on our platform greatly exceeded our projections.

在我們所有店內布局中，包括 QR、感應支付（tap and pay）與卡片，我們處理的 TPV 超過 200 億美元，且有近 1,000 萬名消費者在店內使用 PayPal。我們的加密貨幣上線也獲得極佳回響。即使在初期預期已相當高的情況下，我們平台上的加密貨幣交易量仍大幅超出預測。

We are excited to build upon this early success by allowing customers to use their crypto balance as a funding source whenever they shop at our 29 million merchants. We anticipate the rollout of that capability to begin late this quarter, and we hope to launch our first international market in the next several months.

我們很期待在此早期成功的基礎上更進一步，讓客戶在我們 2,900 萬名商戶處購物時，能隨時以其加密貨幣餘額作為資金來源。我們預期該功能將於本季稍晚開始逐步推出，並希望在接下來幾個月內推出第一個國際市場。

These initial steps are just the beginning of an extensive road map around crypto, blockchain and digital currencies. We are already working with the regulators and central banks to reimagine and shape the next-generation of the financial system, as consumers no longer want to handle cash.

這些初步步驟只是圍繞加密貨幣、區塊鏈與數位貨幣之龐大路線圖的開端。我們已經在與監管機構及各國央行合作，重新構想並塑造下一代金融體系，因為消費者已不再想要處理現金。

We all know the current financial system is antiquated. And we can envision a future where transactions are completed in seconds not days, a future where transactions should be less expensive to complete and a future that enables all people to be part of the digital economy, not just the affluent. We are significantly investing in our new crypto, blockchain and digital currencies business unit in order to help shape this more inclusive future.

我們都知道現行金融體系已經過時。我們也能想像一個未來：交易在幾秒內而非幾天內完成；交易完成的成本應更低；並且讓所有人都能成為數位經濟的一部分，而不僅僅是富裕族群。為了協助塑造這個更具包容性的未來，我們正大幅投資於全新的加密貨幣、區塊鏈與數位貨幣事業單位。

I would also highlight the rapid growth of our buy now, pay later functionality. We saw tremendous and growing demand throughout the quarter and witnessed the fastest start to any product we have ever launched. Millions of consumers transacted at hundreds of thousands of merchants in Q4 alone. As with QR codes, we are seeing a meaningful halo effect on overall transactions and TPV, including over $750 million of TPV in our first quarter out of the gate.

我也想強調我們「先買後付」功能的快速成長。我們在本季看到了強勁且持續增長的需求，並見證了我們有史以來任何新產品推出後最快的起步。僅在第四季，就有數百萬名消費者在數十萬家商戶完成交易。如同 QR Code 一樣，我們看到其對整體交易量與 TPV（總支付金額）帶來顯著的光環效應，包括產品推出後第一季即帶來超過 7.5 億美元的 TPV。

It's exciting to see that each new service we launch drives incremental increases in our overall consumer lifetime value. Consequently, I would expect that our engagement levels will increase beyond our historic run rates.

令人振奮的是，我們推出的每一項新服務都能推動整體消費者終身價值的增量提升。因此，我預期我們的互動參與程度將會高於過往的歷史水準。

I'm proud to see that the PayPal platform was especially leveraged during the pandemic for philanthropic giving and community support, enabling over $17 billion for charities and those in need. And we also put our $535 million commitment to black and minority-owned businesses and communities into action. We have already invested over 50% of those committed dollars, and we plan to report on their impact as results come in.

我很自豪看到 PayPal 平台在疫情期間特別被用於慈善捐贈與社區支持，為慈善機構與有需要的人提供了超過 170 億美元的資金。我們也將對黑人及少數族裔擁有的企業與社區所承諾的 5.35 億美元投入付諸行動。我們已經投資了超過 50% 的承諾金額，並計畫在成果逐步呈現時回報其影響。

We have entered the next chapter in PayPal's history. The efforts of our employees, along with the investments we have made over the past 5 years, have transformed our technical and compliance infrastructure, enabling rapid product development. We released more products and services in 2020 than in any previous year, and we will step-up that pace in 2021.

我們已進入 PayPal 歷史的下一個篇章。員工的努力，加上我們過去 5 年所做的投資，已改造了我們的技術與合規基礎設施，使產品能快速開發。我們在 2020 年推出的產品與服務比以往任何一年都多，而在 2021 年我們將進一步加快這個步伐。

Merchants and consumers are turning to PayPal in record numbers as we accelerate into the digital age. Our opportunities, over the next 5 years, have never been greater. We remain focused on democratizing financial services, assuring that everyone has access and can thrive in the new digital paradigm. We intend to shape that future, and in doing so, become one of the world's leading digital payments, financial services, and commerce platforms.

隨著我們加速邁入數位時代，商戶與消費者正以前所未有的規模轉向使用 PayPal。未來 5 年，我們的機會從未如此巨大。我們仍專注於金融服務的民主化，確保每個人都能取得使用權，並在新的數位典範中茁壯成長。我們打算塑造那個未來，並在此過程中成為全球領先的數位支付、金融服務與商務平台之一。

I look forward to expanding on this vision during our Investor Day next week. With that, I will turn the call over to John.

我期待在下週的投資人日更深入闡述這個願景。接下來，我把電話會議交給 John。

Thanks, Dan. I want to start off by thanking our customers, partners and employees for helping us deliver a record-breaking year. 2020 was pivotal for PayPal and the broader payments industry, marked by rapid acceleration in digitization, cash displacement and e-commerce adoption. These secular trends have been shaping our sector for some time.

謝謝你，Dan。我想先感謝我們的客戶、合作夥伴與員工，協助我們交出破紀錄的一年。2020 年對 PayPal 以及更廣泛的支付產業而言是關鍵的一年，其特徵是數位化加速、現金使用被取代，以及電子商務採用率快速提升。這些長期趨勢已在一段時間內塑造著我們的產業。

That said, the rate of change we experienced last year, resulting from the widespread implications of the COVID pandemic, was profound and transformative. Crisis, which has led to hardship and suffering for so many, increased the urgency across our organization to serve our customers in new and innovative ways. Notably, the isolation defined by lockdowns and working from home actually resulted in greater collaboration and brought our teams closer together. We've entered 2021 energized by a greater sense of purpose and responsibility and ready to build on our strong momentum.

儘管如此，去年我們所經歷的變化速度——源自 COVID 疫情廣泛影響——是深刻且具轉型性的。這場危機讓許多人遭受困難與痛苦，也提升了我們整個組織以全新且創新的方式服務客戶的急迫性。值得注意的是，封城與居家工作所帶來的隔離，反而促成更高程度的協作，讓團隊更加緊密。我們帶著更強的使命感與責任感進入 2021 年，並準備在強勁動能的基礎上再接再厲。

Now to our fourth quarter results. Total payment volume grew 36% on a currency-neutral basis. This is the strongest quarterly growth we've reported in history and represents 14 points of acceleration from 2019. Our merchant services volume grew 40%, another record for PayPal, accelerating each quarter in 2020. Volume contribution from eBay Marketplaces continued to decline. We exited December with eBay representing less than 6% of our overall volume.

接著談第四季業績。總支付金額（TPV）以固定匯率基礎成長 36%。這是我們史上所報告的最強單季成長，較 2019 年加速 14 個百分點。我們的商戶服務交易量成長 40%，再創 PayPal 紀錄，且在 2020 年每一季都持續加速。來自 eBay Marketplaces 的交易量貢獻持續下降。我們在 12 月結束時，eBay 佔我們整體交易量的比重已低於 6%。

Revenue in the fourth quarter increased 23% on both a spot and currency-neutral basis to $6.1 billion. Relative to the fourth quarter of 2019, U.S. revenue grew 18%, and international revenue grew 29% as the U.S. has a greater proportion of revenue from credit and the travel and events verticals. Transaction revenue grew 25%, representing 8 points of acceleration from last year on a spot basis. This growth was primarily driven by strength across our core PayPal business, including strong cross border activity.

第四季營收在即期匯率與固定匯率基礎下皆成長 23%，達 61 億美元。相較 2019 年第四季，美國營收成長 18%，國際營收成長 29%，原因在於美國營收中來自信用產品以及旅遊與活動等垂直領域的占比較高。交易營收成長 25%，以即期匯率計較去年加速 8 個百分點。此成長主要由我們核心 PayPal 業務的強勁表現所帶動，包括強勁的跨境活動。

Our core payments platform continues to deliver exceptional growth, with transaction revenue, excluding revenue from eBay, growing 30% in the fourth quarter, also an acceleration of 8 basis points from 2019.

我們的核心支付平台持續展現卓越成長；第四季交易營收（不含來自 eBay 的營收）成長 30%，相較 2019 年亦加速 8 個基點。

Other value-added services revenue increased 1% on a currency-neutral basis, reflecting incremental Honey revenue, offset by lower interest income on customer balances and less credit revenue. Honey contributed approximately 1.7 points of growth to total revenue and approximately 20 points of growth to other value-added services revenue.

其他加值服務營收以固定匯率基礎成長 1%，反映 Honey 營收的增量貢獻，但被客戶餘額利息收入下降以及較少的信用相關營收所抵銷。Honey 對總營收成長約貢獻 1.7 個百分點，對其他加值服務營收成長約貢獻 20 個百分點。

In the fourth quarter, transaction take rate was 2.05%, and total take rate was 2.21%. The 22 basis point decline in transaction take rate resulted primarily from changes in volume mix with eBay's contribution continuing to decline, bill payment and P2P volumes accelerating and a reduction of $97 million in international transaction revenue from foreign currency hedges. The 28 basis point decline in total take rate resulted from these factors as well as lower value-added services revenue.

第四季交易抽成率（transaction take rate）為 2.05%，總抽成率（total take rate）為 2.21%。交易抽成率下降 22 個基點，主要源於交易量組合變化：eBay 的貢獻持續下降、帳單支付與 P2P 交易量加速，以及因外匯避險導致國際交易營收減少 9,700 萬美元。總抽成率下降 28 個基點，除上述因素外，亦受到加值服務營收較低的影響。

In the fourth quarter, our volume-based expense performance was exceptional. These expenses delivered 216 basis points of leverage in the quarter, increasing 18% to $2.7 billion. Transaction expense improved 12 basis points as a rate of TPV to 84 basis points, driven by both volume mix and funding mix. Transaction losses improved 5 basis points to a record low rate of 10 basis points. Credit losses were 3 basis points as a rate of TPV.

第四季，我們以交易量為基礎的費用表現非常出色。這些費用在本季帶來 216 個基點的槓桿效益，金額成長 18% 至 27 億美元。交易費用占 TPV 的比率改善 12 個基點至 84 個基點，受惠於交易量組合與資金來源組合。交易損失率改善 5 個基點至創紀錄低點 10 個基點。信用損失占 TPV 的比率為 3 個基點。

Our credit loss reserve coverage ratio at the end of the quarter was approximately 23%, decreasing slightly from the third quarter. The combination of strong revenue and volume-based expense performance resulted in transaction margin dollars increasing 28% to $3.4 billion. In the fourth quarter, we generated incremental transaction margin dollars of $753 million, more than 2x the incremental contribution last year.

本季末，我們的信用損失準備覆蓋率約為 23%，較第三季略為下降。強勁的營收與以交易量為基礎的費用表現相結合，使交易毛利金額成長 28% 至 34 億美元。第四季我們新增的交易毛利金額為 7.53 億美元，超過去年新增貢獻的 2 倍。

Nontransaction-related expenses grew 28%, reflecting increased investments in our key strategic priorities as well as growth related to our acquisitions. This higher level of investment contributed to a 56% increase in sales and marketing expenses and a 27% increase in technology and development spending in the quarter. Leverage across customer support and operations and general and administrative expenses partially offset this increased level of investment.

非交易相關費用成長 28%，反映我們在關鍵策略優先事項上的投資增加，以及與併購相關的成長。本季較高的投資水準使銷售與行銷費用增加 56%，技術與開發支出增加 27%。客戶支援與營運，以及一般與行政費用的槓桿效益，部分抵銷了這一更高的投資水準。

On a non-GAAP basis, operating income in the fourth quarter grew 29% to $1.5 billion. Our operating margin was 24.7%, expanding more than 100 basis points and representing our strongest performance for any fourth quarter. We continue to demonstrate our ability to deliver operating efficiencies and scale our platform at low incremental cost, while investing in our strategic growth priorities.

以非 GAAP 基礎計算，第四季營業利益成長 29% 至 15 億美元。營業利益率為 24.7%，擴張超過 100 個基點，並創下我們歷來第四季的最佳表現。我們持續展現以低增量成本提升平台規模並交付營運效率的能力，同時投資於策略性成長優先事項。

Non-GAAP other income declined by $62 million relative to last year, driven by reduced interest income from lower interest rates and higher interest expense from our debt issuance last May. The negative impact on non-GAAP EPS from the decline in other income was offset by a lower effective tax rate.

非 GAAP 其他收益較去年減少 6,200 萬美元，主因是利率下降導致利息收入減少，以及去年 5 月發行債務使利息費用增加。其他收益下降對非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）的負面影響，已被較低的有效稅率所抵銷。

For the fourth quarter, non-GAAP EPS grew 29% to $1.08. We ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and investments of $19.2 billion. In addition, we generated $1.1 billion in free cash flow, representing 50% growth from fourth quarter last year.

第四季非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）成長 29% 至 1.08 美元。本季末我們持有的現金、約當現金與投資為 192 億美元。此外，我們產生 11 億美元的自由現金流，較去年第四季成長 50%。

I'd now like to discuss our guidance for the full year and the first quarter. We've just completed the strongest year in our history, achieving record growth in net new accounts, volume, revenue, operating income, earnings and free cash flow. We delivered these results while absorbing meaningful macroeconomic headwinds affecting our credit business, the revenue and income effects of lower interest rates, idiosyncratic pressure on the travel and events verticals and the initial step down of volumes from eBay post operating agreement.

我現在想討論我們對全年以及第一季的指引。我們剛完成公司史上最強勁的一年，在淨新增帳戶數、交易量、營收、營業利益、獲利與自由現金流方面皆創下紀錄性成長。我們在吸收多項顯著的總體經濟逆風下仍交出這些成果，這些逆風包括影響我們信用業務的因素、較低利率對營收與收益的影響、旅遊與活動垂直領域的特定壓力，以及 eBay 在營運協議後交易量初步下滑。

These headwinds persist as we move into 2021, and yet, our core business continues to perform at unprecedented levels. Our addressable opportunity has never been more expansive, and we're confident we've never been better positioned to capture the benefits of this accelerated secular growth.

隨著我們邁入 2021 年，這些逆風仍將持續；然而，我們的核心業務仍以空前的水準表現。我們可觸及的機會從未如此廣闊，我們也有信心，自己從未像現在這樣具備更佳的條件去掌握這波加速的長期結構性成長所帶來的效益。

We believe the effects of the pandemic on consumer behavior and business transformation are enduring and sustainable. We also expect e-commerce to drive continued strong payment volume and transaction growth globally. While it appears that additional stimulus measures will support the path toward a more sustained economic recovery, the backdrop continues to evolve and much remains uncertain. And as we've commented on several occasions over the past 9 months, we're focused on balancing transparency with certainty as we develop our outlook. It's with these considerations that we're providing our full year guidance, which is our best estimate at this time.

我們相信，疫情對消費者行為與企業轉型所造成的影響是持久且可持續的。我們也預期電子商務將在全球推動支付交易量與交易筆數持續強勁成長。雖然看起來額外的刺激措施將支持邁向更持續的經濟復甦之路，但整體環境仍在演變，且仍有許多不確定性。正如我們在過去 9 個月多次提到的，我們在制定展望時，專注於在透明度與確定性之間取得平衡。基於這些考量，我們提供全年指引，這是我們目前所能做出的最佳估計。

For the full year, our plans contemplate TPV growth in the high 20% range. We expect to generate revenue of approximately $25.5 billion, representing growth of approximately 19% based on current spot rates. Included in our guidance is a headwind to revenue growth of approximately 400 basis points from eBay's managed payments transition. In addition, our current forecast contemplates an approximate 200 basis point impact from foreign currency translation as the U.S. dollar has weakened relative to 2020.

就全年而言，我們的規劃預期 TPV（總支付交易量）成長落在接近 20% 後段的區間。我們預期營收約為 255 億美元，按目前即期匯率計算約成長 19%。我們的指引包含 eBay 轉向其自主管理支付（managed payments）所帶來的營收成長逆風，約 400 個基點。此外，我們目前的預測也納入外幣換算約 200 個基點的影響，因美元相較於 2020 年已走弱。

As we've discussed previously, in 2021, we will absorb the greatest revenue impact from the loss of volumes from eBay. In the face of this pressure, we're pleased to be guiding spot revenue growth at 19%. Equally important, once we are beyond the eBay transition, we expect our rates of growth for total payment volume, revenue and earnings to accelerate.

如同我們先前討論過的，2021 年我們將承受因 eBay 交易量流失所帶來的最大營收影響。面對這項壓力，我們仍很高興能給出即期營收成長 19% 的指引。同樣重要的是，一旦我們度過 eBay 轉換期，我們預期總支付交易量、營收與獲利的成長率將加速。

In 2021, we also expect to deliver approximately 17% growth in non-GAAP earnings per share. This earnings guidance contemplates ongoing elevated levels of organic investment. We believe the structural tailwinds for PayPal have never been stronger. To fully realize these opportunities, strengthen our competitive positioning and advance our leadership in digital payments, sustained investment in our business is critical.

在 2021 年，我們也預期非 GAAP 每股盈餘將成長約 17%。這項獲利指引已考量我們將持續維持較高水準的有機投資。我們認為，PayPal 的結構性順風從未如此強勁。為了充分實現這些機會、強化我們的競爭定位並推進我們在數位支付領域的領導地位，對業務進行持續投資至關重要。

Cost discipline, together with our ability to efficiently scale our payments platform, will allow us to generate modest operating margin expansion in 2021. In addition, we anticipate that below the line factors, namely higher interest expense and a higher tax rate in 2021 relative to 2020, will offset much of this margin expansion. For the full year, we expect to generate approximately $6 billion in free cash flow.

成本紀律，加上我們有效率地擴展支付平台的能力，將使我們在 2021 年實現溫和的營業利益率擴張。此外，我們預期損益表下方的因素，也就是 2021 年相較 2020 年更高的利息費用與更高的稅率，將抵銷這部分利益率擴張的大部分。就全年而言，我們預期自由現金流約為 60 億美元。

Before I discuss our Q1 guidance, I'd like to contextualize how to think about the trajectory of our revenue and earnings performance for the year. This year, there are several dynamics that we believe will contribute to more variability in our year-over-year growth rates from quarter-to-quarter than our historic trends. These include lapping our 2020 performance, this year's cadence of planned investments and product introductions, the roll off of eBay volumes and our timing expectations related to the recovery of travel and events volumes and of a more normalized growth in our credit portfolio.

在我討論第一季指引之前，我想先提供一些背景，說明如何看待我們今年營收與獲利表現的走勢。今年有幾項動態，我們認為將使我們的年增率在各季之間出現比過往趨勢更大的波動。這些因素包括與 2020 年表現的比較基期、今年規劃投資與產品推出的節奏、eBay 交易量的逐步退出，以及我們對旅遊與活動交易量復甦時點的預期，以及信用組合回到較正常成長的時點。

Underlying our guidance for 19% revenue growth on a spot basis is our expectation that we will report our highest rate of revenue growth for the year in the first quarter, followed by relatively stable, but more moderate growth in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2021. Our full year earnings guidance of 17% growth also contemplates delivering the highest rate of growth in Q1.

支撐我們以即期基礎給出 19% 營收成長指引的核心假設，是我們預期第一季將呈現全年最高的營收成長率，之後在 2021 年第二、第三與第四季維持相對穩定但較為溫和的成長。我們全年獲利成長 17% 的指引也同樣假設第一季將交出最高的成長率。

In the second quarter, we anticipate non-GAAP earnings to be relatively flat year-over-year, primarily due to the outsized EPS growth we experienced in Q2 last year, which exceeded 49% as well as the expected timing of our investment spend. Then, in the back half of 2021, we expect a meaningful and sequential reacceleration in earnings growth.

在第二季，我們預期非 GAAP 獲利年增將相對持平，主要原因是去年第二季我們經歷了特別突出的 EPS 成長，超過 49%，以及我們投資支出的預期時點。接著在 2021 年下半年，我們預期獲利成長將出現顯著且逐季的再加速。

Importantly, throughout the year, we expect the absolute dollar performance of our business to be very strong. As we move through the year, we'll keep you updated on how we're tracking relative to this expected cadence. Consistent with my earlier comments, in the first quarter, we expect revenue growth of approximately 28% on a spot basis, with non-GAAP earnings growth of approximately 50%.

重要的是，全年我們預期業務的絕對金額表現將非常強勁。隨著年度推進，我們會持續向各位更新我們相對於這一預期節奏的進展。與我先前的評論一致，在第一季，我們預期以即期基礎計算的營收成長約 28%，非 GAAP 獲利成長約 50%。

In summary, last year was a year like no other. But in all of the turmoil and difficulty that people encountered, one thing was clear in our business. PayPal has never been more relevant and needed than we are right now. Our industry, our company is moving forward.

總結來說，去年是前所未有的一年。但在人們所經歷的各種動盪與困難之中，我們的業務有一點非常清楚：PayPal 從未像現在這樣更具相關性、也更被需要。我們的產業、我們的公司正在向前邁進。

The next 5 years will be very different than the last 5, and we're striving to shape that outcome, that future, a future where e-commerce and digital payments are not just a fallback when one can't make it to a physical store or don't want to handle cash, but instead a necessity, a necessity that is sought out as the preferred way for people to transact every single day. It's a future where I expect that our scale, our brand of trust and security and our leading solutions for merchants and consumers alike, will allow us to continue to create immense value for all of our stakeholders.

接下來 5 年將與過去 5 年大不相同，而我們正努力塑造那個結果、那個未來——一個電子商務與數位支付不再只是當人們無法前往實體店或不想處理現金時的備案，而是成為必需品、成為人們每天交易時主動選擇的首選方式的未來。在那樣的未來中，我預期我們的規模、我們值得信賴且安全的品牌，以及我們面向商戶與消費者的領先解決方案，將使我們能持續為所有利害關係人創造巨大的價值。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to the operator for questions.

接下來，我把電話交回給接線員進行提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question will come from the line of Jason Kupferberg of Bank of America.

（接線員指示）您的第一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Jason Kupferberg。

Congrats on the results. I wanted to ask about the new growth initiatives, and 2-part question here, maybe one for John and one for Dan. First part is, does your guidance assume that the aggregate revenue contribution of these new growth initiatives will be enough to offset the 4% eBay headwind in 2021?

恭喜你們的成果。我想問一下新的成長計畫，這裡有一個兩部分的問題，可能一部分問 John、另一部分問 Dan。第一部分是：你們的指引是否假設，這些新成長計畫的合計營收貢獻，將足以抵銷 2021 年來自 eBay 的 4% 逆風？

And then the second part is, among the various new growth initiatives, which have surprised you the most to the upside so far? And which did you perhaps think would be seeing a little bit more adoption to date than they have been to date?

第二部分是：在各項新成長計畫之中，哪些到目前為止最讓你們驚喜、表現超出預期？又有哪些是你們原本以為到目前為止會有更多採用，但實際採用程度不如預期的？

Jason, I'll start with the first part of your question and turn it to Dan, if that's okay. With respect to offsetting the headwind from eBay, the fact that we're expanding or better said that our projected guidance suggests that we're expanding our operating margins would certainly indicate that we think between the momentum in the business and the additional initiatives combined that we can offset the pressure related to eBay.

Jason，我先回答你問題的第一部分，然後如果可以的話再交給 Dan。關於抵銷來自 eBay 的逆風，我們正在擴張——或者更準確地說，我們的預測指引顯示我們的營業利益率正在擴張——這本身就清楚表明，我們認為憑藉業務動能以及額外計畫的綜合效應，我們可以抵銷與 eBay 相關的壓力。

Certainly, the initiatives, all initiatives, taking a while to ramp up. The bulk of our new initiatives are really -- we would expect the financial impact to be in the second half of the year. But when you combine that with the momentum in the business, it certainly allows us to offset that headwind.

當然，各項計畫——所有計畫——都需要一些時間才能拉升規模。我們大多數的新計畫，我們預期其財務影響會在下半年顯現。但把這些與業務動能結合起來，確實能讓我們抵銷那項逆風。

And Jason, I'll try and answer your second question there. So that's like you ask me to choose which of these are my favorite kid. And I've got other product managers that are hanging on the answer. So look, we put out a couple of big initiatives into the market from our in-store to our crypto, to our buy now, pay later. And honestly, all of them surpassed our internal projections, and they all are creating a halo impact that is really pleasing to see. I talked about kind of QR having a 19% halo effect.

Jason，我也試著回答你第二個問題。這就像要我在這些之中選出我最喜歡的孩子一樣，而我還有其他產品經理正盯著我的答案。所以你看，我們推出了幾個大型計畫到市場上，從門市內（in-store）到加密貨幣（crypto），再到先買後付（buy now, pay later）。老實說，它們全部都超出我們內部的預測，而且都在產生令人非常樂見的光環效應（halo impact）。我提到過 QR 大概有 19% 的光環效應。

Crypto started off with a bang and just kept going and is continuing to go. But in a surprise winner, if I had the envelope, I would talk about buy now, pay later, honestly, as surprising me most to the upside. I -- since I've been here, I've never seen a product launch with that kind of scale so quickly. I mean we talked about moving into the U.S. in October, we announced. And we had almost 3 million customers using buy now, pay later at hundreds of thousands of merchants. By the way, that's not the total number of transaction. We already saw in the quarter a 40% repeat rate on that as well. And so it's not just that you add customers in it, I mean, they're just voting with their feet and moving forward. And we think that we have a value proposition that is second to none out there.

加密貨幣一開始就聲勢驚人，之後一路延續，現在仍在持續成長。但若要說一個出乎意料的贏家，如果我手上有信封，我會坦白說我會談「先買後付（buy now, pay later）」，因為它在正向表現上最讓我驚訝。我——自從我在這裡以來，從未見過一個產品能以那樣的規模在如此短的時間內推出。我們在10月談到要進入美國市場並對外宣布，而我們就有將近300萬名客戶在數十萬家商戶使用先買後付。順帶一提，那不是交易總量。我們在該季度也已看到先買後付有40%的重複使用率。因此不只是新增客戶而已，我的意思是，他們真的用行動投票並持續往前。我們認為我們的價值主張在市場上無出其右。

First of all, we've got 350 million customers that we can bring that trust PayPal. We know them. And so our approval rates are higher, we think, than anybody else out there when people sign up for buy now, pay later. Second, it is no incremental cost to the merchant. I mean all of the other competitors charge a pretty significant incremental cost. And for us, we're just charging the same take rate that the merchant has. It's very, very light integration, which is why we saw well over 10,000 merchants integrate buy now, pay later up the funnel, really on the product pages and not at checkout, and we're beginning to see more and more of that as we come into the year.

首先，我們有3.5億名客戶可以帶來對PayPal的信任。我們了解他們。因此當人們註冊先買後付時，我們的核准率我們認為比市場上任何人都高。第二，對商戶而言沒有任何增量成本。我的意思是，其他所有競爭對手都會收取相當可觀的增量費用。而我們只是收取商戶原本的相同抽成率（take rate）。整合非常、非常輕量，這也是為什麼我們看到遠超過10,000家商戶在漏斗上游整合先買後付，真正是在產品頁面而不是在結帳頁面；而隨著我們進入今年，我們也開始看到越來越多這樣的情況。

Another thing that's really interesting to me, here, the halo effect, by the way, very early days. The halo effect is about 15% increase in TPV. And we think all of that TPV so far is incremental TPV for us. But the other thing is we're seeing a meaningful double-digit reduction in the cost of those transactions as well. And so when you look at kind of the scale, when you look at the value proposition, the take-up of merchants and that's continuing on into the first quarter, this is clearly a home run for us and a winner. And it is not to dismiss any of my other favorite kids to say they all had great years, but buy now, pay later was probably the biggest surprise.

另外一件對我來說很有意思的事是這裡的光環效應（halo effect），順帶一提，仍是非常早期的階段。光環效應大約帶來TPV提升15%。而且我們認為到目前為止的這些TPV對我們而言都是增量TPV。但另一點是，我們也看到這些交易的成本出現有意義的雙位數下降。因此當你看規模、看價值主張、看商戶的採用情況，而且這種趨勢在第一季仍在延續，這對我們而言顯然是一記全壘打、是一個贏家。這並不是要否定我其他最喜歡的孩子——他們都度過了很棒的一年——但先買後付可能是最大的驚喜。

Our next question will come from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的Tien-Tsin Huang。

I really enjoyed the presentation here. I wanted to ask on M&A, if that's okay. I just wanted to check your appetite on acquisitions and especially at this point in the cycle, given that so many of these digital assets have been inflated in terms of valuation during the pandemic here. Any change in your thinking around M&A? I saw on the slide, you had some great detail on your strategic investments, but how about M&A?

我很喜歡這次的簡報。我想問一下併購（M&A），如果可以的話。我只是想確認你們對收購的意願，尤其是在這個週期點上，考量到疫情期間許多這些數位資產的估值被推高。你們對M&A的想法有任何改變嗎？我在投影片上看到你們對策略性投資有很好的細節，但M&A方面呢？

Tien-Tsin, I'll start and maybe Dan will jump in. But I think there's 2 really important points to consider when we think about acquisitions for PayPal. The first is that we are somewhat unique in the fintech ecosystem insofar as we enjoy outsized growth rates, but we also are extremely profitable, and that results in the type of free cash flow generation with 20% plus free cash flow margins. And that -- it's that uniqueness that allows us the ability to have this effectively an asset where we can go out and look at inorganic opportunities to complement what we're doing organically. So I think that's one important point to think about.

Tien-Tsin，我先回答，Dan 也許會補充。我認為在思考PayPal的收購時，有兩個非常重要的點。第一，我們在金融科技生態系中相對獨特：我們享有超常的成長率，同時也極度獲利，這帶來了20%以上自由現金流利潤率的自由現金流創造能力。而——正是這種獨特性，讓我們有能力把它有效地當作一項資產，去尋找能補強我們有機成長所做事情的非有機機會。我認為這是第一個重要的思考點。

The second, and it really gets to your point around where some valuations are, but we exercise a tremendous amount of discipline in the way that we look at this. And from an overall capital allocation perspective, our view is every dollar of capital has to compete with the other alternatives out there, whether that be organic, whether that be returning cash to shareholders or going out and acquiring a company. And so we will remain disciplined and really view our acquisitive strategy over a multiyear longer-term time frame.

第二點，也正好呼應你提到的某些估值水準：我們在評估這些事情時會保持極高的紀律。從整體資本配置的角度來看，我們的觀點是，每一美元資本都必須與其他替代方案競爭，不論是投入有機成長、回饋現金給股東，或是外出收購一家公司。因此我們會維持紀律，並以多年期、較長期的時間框架來看待我們的收購策略。

Yes. I'd just add to that, Tien-Tsin. If you think about our need for acquisition, that weighs against like what is our pace of organic innovation. And in 2020, we put out more products and services than we've ever put out before. I said in my remarks that we're going to step-up that pace in 2021, and we're going to go do that. When I look at all the investment we've made over the past 5-plus years in our tech infrastructure, in our compliance and risk management, what that's enabled us to do now is pretty radically accelerate the amount of software releases that we have.

是的。我再補充一點，Tien-Tsin。若你思考我們對收購的需求，那會與我們有機創新的速度相權衡。2020年我們推出的產品與服務比以往任何一年都多。我在發言中提到，我們會在2021年加快這個節奏，而且我們會去做。當我回顧過去5年多我們在技術基礎設施、合規與風險管理上的所有投資，這些讓我們現在能相當大幅地加速軟體發布的數量。

We put out last year between config releases and software releases some 60,000 releases. That was up 30% year-over-year at the time that we're all working from home. So our productivity has gone way up. Our developer toolkits are much improved. They're using modern programming language. We have a service-oriented architecture. And by the way, all that's happening, while the number of bugs has gone down 25% in all of our releases from 2019 levels.

去年我們在設定（config）發布與軟體發布之間，總共發布了約60,000次。即使大家都在居家工作，那仍較前一年成長30%。所以我們的生產力大幅提升。我們的開發者工具包改善很多。他們使用現代程式語言。我們採用面向服務的架構。而且順帶一提，在這一切發生的同時，相較2019年的水準，我們所有發布中的錯誤數量下降了25%。

And so I'm really happy with the pace of organic innovation and our ability to deliver products, and that takes away a lot of our need to do acquisition.

因此我對有機創新的速度以及我們交付產品的能力非常滿意，而這也大幅降低了我們進行收購的需求。

I would just build on John's point. We obviously have a strong balance sheet, strong cash flow. We will be acquisitive going forward. But we're going to look at that, as John said, in a very disciplined manner. We're going to look at talent, type of acquisitions, working to do maybe a smaller acquisition to bring in great talent in a particular area. We'll look at geographic types of acquisitions where we may want to go after a geography, and there may be a player or 2 there that could help us leapfrog into that market, and we'll look at that carefully.

我想在John的觀點上再延伸一下。我們顯然有強健的資產負債表與強勁的現金流。未來我們仍會進行收購。但我們會如John所說，以非常有紀律的方式來評估。我們會看人才類型的收購，可能做較小型的收購，把某個領域的優秀人才帶進來。我們也會看地理區域類型的收購：若我們想進軍某個地區，而那裡可能有一到兩個玩家能幫助我們在該市場實現跳躍式進入，我們會審慎評估。

And if there's a real capability that -- not that we can't develop and do, but it's going to take us too long to get there because of what we're trying to do on our road map, then we would take a look at that as well. Those are kind of the basic areas, I would say. So I think we've got a good one-two punch between what we can do internally and what we can do from an inorganic perspective.

如果有某項真正的能力——不是說我們不能自行開發與做到——但因為我們路線圖上想做的事情，若要靠自己達成會花太久時間，那我們也會加以評估。大致上就是這些基本面向。所以我認為我們在內部能做的，以及從非有機角度能做的之間，形成了很好的「一二連擊」。

Your next question will comes from the line of James Faucette of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的James Faucette。

James, are you there? I won't be the first one to say this, but are you off mute? Tell you what -- is James here? Why don't we go to the next question, and we can put James back in the queue a little bit later, Gabriel.

James，你在線上嗎？我不會是第一個這麼說的人，但你是不是還在靜音？這樣吧——James在嗎？不如我們先進下一題，之後再把James放回提問隊列裡，Gabriel。

All right. So your next question will come from Darrin Peller of Wolfe Research.

好的。那下一個問題來自Wolfe Research的Darrin Peller。

Congrats on the year also. Look, your expectation for adding 50 million net new actives in '21 was clearly an impressive number when looking at 72 million, you guys just added. And then the prepandemic normalized level is around 35 million, I think, per year, right?

也恭喜你們今年的表現。你們對2021年新增5,000萬名淨新增活躍用戶（net new actives）的預期，對照你們剛新增的7,200萬，顯然是一個令人印象深刻的數字。而疫情前的常態化水準大約是每年3,500萬左右，我想，對吧？

Does that -- I guess, first, does that underscore the incremental adds, your confidence that the incremental adds in 2020 will really not pull forward, but they're just new demographics. And just looking off of last year, if you could walk us through the different drivers, whether it's geography or products, giving you the confidence in adding 50 million net new actives in '21 versus the prepandemic 35 million or so levels, would be great.

那我想先問，這是否凸顯了你們對於2020年增量新增用戶的信心：這些增量並不會是提前透支（pull forward），而是來自新的族群。再回頭看去年，如果你們能帶我們梳理一下不同的驅動因素——不論是地理區域或產品——讓你們有信心在2021年新增5,000萬名淨新增活躍用戶，相較於疫情前每年約3,500萬的水準，那就太好了。

Yes. Yes, Darrin, I think when we look at the cohort of net new actives from last year, it's clearly incremental people coming on. The -- over 50 demographic, 50 years old demographic, one of our strongest growth vectors that we've had. So you're really seeing new demographics come onto the platform. But what's really interesting to me is the engagement metrics of that cohort are also up substantially. We have double-digit increases in value for net new active. Our 90-day engagement rates are up 13% plus over traditional cohorts.

是的。是的，Darrin，我認為當我們回頭看去年淨新增活躍用戶（net new actives）的那一批人時，很明顯是新增進來的增量人群。50 歲以上族群（over 50 demographic、50 years old demographic）一直是我們最強的成長動能之一。所以你確實看到新的族群加入平台。但對我來說更有意思的是，該批次用戶的互動參與指標也大幅提升。我們在每位淨新增活躍用戶的價值上出現了雙位數的增長。我們的 90 天互動參與率相較於傳統批次提升了 13% 以上。

If you look at a normalized transaction for active spend, because this kind of gets a little bit lost because we're including Honey net new actives in the denominator. And we also, as you said, we put on 72.7 million net new actives last year. If you normalize that for 37 million that we would put on, on a typical year because when you put somebody onto the platform, they don't have all the transactions because they all didn't come in on January 1, they come in throughout the year. And so that puts pressure on it.

如果你看活躍用戶消費（active spend）的標準化交易，因為我們把 Honey 的淨新增活躍用戶也納入分母，所以這部分有點被掩蓋了。而且如你所說，我們去年新增了 7,270 萬淨新增活躍用戶。如果把它標準化到一般年度我們通常新增的 3,700 萬，因為當你把某個人帶到平台上時，他們不會立刻產生所有交易，因為他們不可能都在 1 月 1 日就加入，而是全年陸續加入。因此這會對指標造成壓力。

But our TPA, which is a real measure of engagement, normalized basis would have grown 11.5%, like that's above any trend line that we have up to about 45.1x a year. And so our churn rates, in general, because of that, are coming down. And when you have a base as big as ours right now, it is as much, maybe even more about the churn rate than it is the new adds coming in. There is plenty of demand to come on to our platform.

但我們的 TPA（這是衡量互動參與度的真實指標），在標準化基礎下會成長 11.5%；這高於我們任何趨勢線，年化大約到 45.1x。因此，我們整體的流失率（churn rates）也因此在下降。而當你擁有像我們現在這麼大的用戶基礎時，重點就跟新增加入的人數一樣重要，甚至更重要的是流失率。我們的平台仍有充足的需求加入。

But when we see churn reduction like we're seeing right now because of increased engagement, and that increased engagement is coming because people are just moving online and because we have these new products that are out right now that people are just using a ton of more, like crypto is a great example. Everyone who has signed up for crypto is opening up their wallet app 2x the level of what they did previous.

但當我們看到像現在這樣因互動參與提升而帶來的流失下降，而互動參與提升又是因為人們正在轉向線上，以及因為我們目前推出的新產品被大量使用，例如加密貨幣（crypto）就是很好的例子。所有註冊加密貨幣的人，打開他們錢包 App 的頻率是過去的 2 倍。

And so I think that 50 million is a real good guide right now. We'll obviously update as we go on. But we're seeing a lot of really encouraging trends in the underlying cohorts that we're bringing on, which gives a lot of confidence to that 50 million number.

所以我認為 5,000 萬目前是一個很好的指引。我們當然會隨著進展更新。但我們在所引入的底層用戶批次上看到許多非常令人鼓舞的趨勢，這也讓我們對 5,000 萬這個數字更有信心。

Our next question comes from the line of David Togut of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

Dan and John, could you discuss the drivers of operating leverage, both at the transaction expense and the other OpEx level? And in particular, are you seeing a sustained volume mix shift towards the branded PayPal wallet versus Braintree and P2P benefiting transaction margin as well as the continued funding mix shift toward debit?

Dan 和 John，能否談談營運槓桿（operating leverage）的驅動因素，包含交易費用（transaction expense）以及其他營運費用（OpEx）層面？特別是，你們是否看到交易量組合（volume mix）持續轉向品牌化的 PayPal 錢包（branded PayPal wallet），而非 Braintree 與 P2P，從而有利於交易毛利（transaction margin），以及資金來源組合（funding mix）持續轉向簽帳金融卡（debit）？

Sure, David, you packed in a lot in that question. So let me just -- I'll take them in reverse order. We still are seeing elevated levels of debit, and that's consistent with what others have said across the ecosystem, though not at the levels that we saw in 2Q and likely driven by the impact of stimulus measures at that point in time.

當然可以，David，你這個問題涵蓋很多內容。我就——我會倒過來回答。我們仍然看到簽帳金融卡（debit）維持在偏高水準，這也與生態系中其他公司所說一致，雖然不像第二季（2Q）那麼高，而當時的高點很可能是由於刺激措施（stimulus measures）的影響所致。

Braintree continues to perform very well for us, but it really suffers the brunt of the impact from the travel and events vertical, which was down 50%, 5-0 percent, for us. And so that's -- it's a pretty meaningful impact when you consider that that's in excess of 10% of our volume.

Braintree 對我們而言持續表現非常好，但它確實承受了旅遊與活動（travel and events）垂直領域的衝擊，該領域對我們來說下滑了 50%（5-0 percent）。因此——當你考量到這部分占我們交易量超過 10% 時，這是相當顯著的影響。

But when you look at the areas of leverage for our business, so I think we'll continue to see strong core PayPal trends, PayPal volume. And those tend to come at a higher transaction margin. But at the same time, we've seen record performance in transaction expense and transaction losses. And those -- transaction expense will be impacted more by the mixes in our business, but we expect those will be below the levels that we entered this pandemic with, and we expect transaction losses to stay at these levels. We're performing very well there.

但當你看我們業務的槓桿來源時，我認為我們會持續看到 PayPal 核心趨勢強勁、PayPal 交易量成長，而這些通常帶來較高的交易毛利（transaction margin）。同時，我們在交易費用（transaction expense）與交易損失（transaction losses）方面也創下紀錄表現。交易費用會更受我們業務組合（mixes）的影響，但我們預期其水準會低於疫情開始時的水準；而我們也預期交易損失會維持在目前水準。我們在這方面表現非常好。

But as you think about the remainder of our income statement, if you will, and all the other sort of non-volume-related expenses, we've invested a lot, obviously, in the back half of last year, and our guidance assumes that as well. But we also demonstrate the ability for our business to scale very efficiently.

但如果你再看損益表（income statement）的其餘部分，以及所有其他與交易量無關的費用，我們在去年下半年顯然投入了很多，我們的指引也反映了這點。但我們也展現了業務能非常有效率地擴張（scale）的能力。

And so if you just -- we don't give expense guidance for the year, but you can back into it based upon our revenue and earnings growth. And that expense growth that we're assuming in 2021, about 75% of that is related to investments we're making in the business, discretionary go-to-market initiatives, all of the things we're doing to help accelerate or continue these trends. And so that leaves the remainder 25%, which is really just demonstrating the scalability of our model.

因此如果你只是——我們不提供全年費用指引（expense guidance），但你可以根據我們的營收與獲利成長去反推。我們在 2021 年假設的費用成長中，大約 75% 與我們對業務的投資有關，包括可裁量的市場推進（discretionary go-to-market）計畫，以及我們為了加速或延續這些趨勢所做的一切。因此剩下的 25% 就真正展現了我們模型的可擴展性（scalability）。

And I'll end my question with one data point that, I think, is reflective of how successful that model is. And so you know, David, I often talk about the incremental margins in our business. And meaning -- so for every dollar of revenue that we brought in, in the quarter, what was the profitability related to that? And in the fourth quarter, the organic incremental operating margin was 32% for PayPal. So for every new dollar of revenue we're bringing in, it's got a higher margin on it than what the rest of the business does.

我最後用一個數據點作結，我認為它反映了這個模型有多成功。David，你知道我常談到我們業務的增量利潤率（incremental margins），也就是——每增加 1 美元營收，在該季度所對應的獲利能力是多少。在第四季，PayPal 的有機增量營業利益率（organic incremental operating margin）是 32%。也就是說，我們每新增 1 美元營收，其毛利率比公司其他既有業務更高。

That's a model that we find very appealing and one that we want to continue to keep our foot on the gas on. And that's why that, even in a year like 2021, when we have meaningful investment in our business, we can still, at least, guide to a point where we're expecting modest operating margin expansion.

這是一個我們覺得非常有吸引力的模型，也是我們希望持續加速推進的方向。也因此，即使在像 2021 這樣我們對業務有顯著投資的一年，我們仍然至少可以給出指引：我們預期營業利益率會有溫和擴張（modest operating margin expansion）。

Your next question comes from the line of James Faucette of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 James Faucette。

I wanted to ask John, and Dan, obviously, chime in where appropriate, but you alluded and then mentioned specifically, John, kind of your guidance and that kind of thing for this year. If we think back just over the last few months, even of the fourth quarters, there's been just a huge amount of volatility in closures and what consumers were doing or could do or couldn't do, et cetera.

我想問 John，也請 Dan 在適當時補充。你先前提到、而且 John 你也具體提到你們今年的指引等內容。如果我們回想過去幾個月，甚至就第四季而言，關閉措施以及消費者在做什麼、能做什麼或不能做什麼等，都出現了非常大的波動，等等。

So how are you trying to think about like all those puts and takes as you formulate your full year '21 outlook today? And what are the things maybe that you've seen as we've gone through, particularly the latter few months of '20 that kind of give you confidence in, all right, our forecasting methodology is pretty sound, at least, from where we stand right now?

那麼在你們今天制定 2021 全年展望（full year '21 outlook）時，會如何思考這些利多與利空（puts and takes）？以及在我們走過這段期間、特別是 2020 年後幾個月，你們看到了哪些事情，讓你們對「好，我們的預測方法（forecasting methodology）至少就目前而言相當可靠」更有信心？

Sure, James. Look, the revenue guide of 19% growth for the year. We sit here in February of 2021, and there's still uncertainty. There's uncertainty with the level of stimulus measures, the pace of the vaccine roll-out. But there are some things that we've seen that certainly give us a lot more confidence than where we stood 9 months ago sort of at the peak of the concern and trepidation that people had around what could happen to the economy and the impact on everyone's respective company.

當然可以，James。你看，我們對全年營收的指引是成長 19%。我們現在坐在 2021 年 2 月，仍然存在不確定性：刺激措施（stimulus measures）的力度、疫苗推廣（vaccine roll-out）的速度。但我們也看到一些事情，確實讓我們比 9 個月前更有信心；當時正值大家對經濟可能發生什麼、以及對各家公司影響的擔憂與不安高峰。

Some of the trends that we're seeing that Dan talked about in his prepared remarks, they're definitely sustainable. And there's this movement to digitization and the pull forward of e-commerce that certainly stands to benefit us and others in this space.

我們看到的一些趨勢，正如 Dan 在事先準備的發言（prepared remarks）中提到的，確實具有可持續性。數位化（digitization）的移動，以及電商（e-commerce）需求提前釋放（pull forward），都將使我們與同業受益。

But we provided sort of an approximate number, right? We said approximately 19%. There's not a range around it, like we normally do because, quite frankly, that range would be somewhat artificial or arbitrary. It's -- there are a wide range of outcomes that could happen. But we feel pretty good about what we see in the business. And I think it's important to note that we are a pretty diversified portfolio of products. And so we're not just reliant on one thing.

但我們提供的是一個大致的數字，對吧？我們說大約 19%。我們沒有像平常那樣給出區間，坦白說，那個區間會有點人為或武斷。——可能發生的結果範圍很廣。但我們對目前在業務中看到的狀況感覺相當不錯。我也認為很重要的一點是，我們擁有相當多元化的產品組合（diversified portfolio of products），因此我們不只是依賴單一項目。

And I'll give one example before I close my answer, but the travel and events portfolio. So I mentioned that in an earlier answer, like our baseline assumption on that 19% revenue growth is that as the -- as people begin receiving vaccines, there's pent-up demand for travel. People want to take that summer vacation in 2020 that they missed.

在我結束回答之前，我再舉一個例子，就是旅遊與活動（events）組合。我在先前的回答中提到，我們對那 19% 營收成長的基準假設是，隨著——隨著人們開始接種疫苗，旅遊需求會出現累積後的反彈。大家想補回他們在 2020 年錯過的暑假旅行。

And so we're assuming that we start to see a rebound in travel and events in the second quarter. And that certainly stands to benefit the Braintree side of our business. But if things aren't, if that's not the case, then likely there's been other concerns that result in people sort of lacking mobility that still stands to benefit us on the core PayPal business. So it's -- I know it's 11 months out that we're projecting here. But as we've moved through this, we've gotten more confident with some of the trends that we're seeing and feel really good about that guide.

因此，我們假設在第二季開始看到旅遊與活動的回升，而這當然會讓我們的 Braintree 業務受益。但如果情況不是如此、如果並非如此，那麼很可能是有其他疑慮導致人們某種程度上行動受限，而這反而仍會讓我們的 PayPal 核心業務受益。所以——我知道我們在這裡做的是往後 11 個月的預測。但隨著我們一路走來，我們對所看到的一些趨勢更有信心，並且對這份指引感到非常良好。

And your next question will come from the line of Colin Sebastian of Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Colin Sebastian。

A lot of good stuff here. But hoping you could provide a little more color on the strategy to build out the presence in China, how you see the combination of GoPay and PayPal position from a competitive standpoint, both within the country as well as the cross-border perspective?

這裡有很多好內容。不過希望你能再多補充一些關於在中國擴大布局的策略細節：你如何看待 GoPay 與 PayPal 的結合在競爭面上的定位，無論是在中國境內，或是從跨境角度來看？

Yes. I'll take this. Thanks for the question, Colin. So obviously, we're really pleased that we now own 100% of GoPay. And we're the first and so far the only foreign payments company to operate a full domestic payments business in China. And that, obviously, gives us a very strong legal foundation for the business we have there and for the business that we intend to drive.

好的，我來回答。謝謝你的問題，Colin。很明顯地，我們對現在已經持有 GoPay 100% 股權感到非常高興。我們是第一家、截至目前也是唯一一家外資支付公司，能在中國經營完整的境內支付業務。這顯然為我們在當地既有的業務，以及我們打算推動的業務，提供了非常強而有力的法律基礎。

Very recently, Deputy Governor Pan from the PBOC had an article in the Financial Times. That was really kind of this clear statement of China's commitment to trying to strike the right balance between innovation along with prudent regulation. And that plays right into what we want to do inside the market. We really want to work with the regulators there on both of those objectives and assure that we've got both safe and secure digital commerce. And we really have 3 goals over the next couple of years in China.

就在不久前，中國人民銀行（PBOC）副行長潘先生在《金融時報》發表了一篇文章。那其實是一個相當清楚的表態：中國致力於在創新與審慎監管之間取得適當平衡。這正好契合我們想在市場內做的事。我們非常希望與當地監管機構在這兩個目標上合作，並確保我們能同時提供安全且可靠的數位商務。未來幾年我們在中國有三個目標。

So first, obviously, is to make sure we invest to have the right compliant infrastructure inside China. The second is to really leverage all of our cross-border expertise, and that goes in 2 directions. First, we want to significantly increase the amount of cross-border that Chinese merchants can get from the 350 million consumers we have outside of China. And we also want to work inside China to have Chinese consumers purchase from the 29 million merchants that we have outside of China.

第一，當然是確保我們投資建置在中國境內合規且到位的基礎設施。第二，是充分運用我們所有的跨境專長，而且是雙向的。首先，我們希望大幅提升中國商戶能從中國以外我們 3.5 億消費者那裡獲得的跨境交易量。我們也希望在中國境內推動，讓中國消費者能向中國以外我們 2,900 萬商戶進行購買。

Both of those are already growing elements, and we think that those can grow quite nicely in the years to come, and it really plays into our strengths. The third thing, though, is that we do want to work within the ecosystem inside of China with companies like China UnionPay, with the banks there, with the tech platform companies there as well to drive new types of payment services or incremental payment services inside the domestic market, like that could be payouts, it could be some unbranded full stack processing. It could be QR codes.

這兩者都已經是正在成長的要素，我們認為未來幾年可以相當不錯地持續成長，而且這非常符合我們的強項。不過第三點是，我們也確實希望在中國境內的生態系中，與中國銀聯、當地銀行、以及當地科技平台公司等合作，推動新的支付服務或在境內市場提供增量型的支付服務，例如可能是代付（payouts）、可能是一些不具品牌的全栈處理（unbranded full stack processing），也可能是 QR Code。

For instance, I'll just give you an example. China is holding the Olympics in the next couple of years. There's going to be a tremendous amount of visitors going into China. And we want our QR codes to be deployed so that people coming in to China don't necessarily have to download WeChat Pay or Ant, and can use their PayPal wallet inside China to make purchases at merchants.

例如，我舉個例子。中國在未來幾年將舉辦奧運，會有大量訪客進入中國。我們希望部署我們的 QR Code，讓入境中國的人不一定需要下載微信支付或螞蟻的產品，而是可以在中國境內使用他們的 PayPal 錢包，在商戶端完成購買。

And I think there's a lot of ways that we can leverage our strength, the strength of our partners inside China and our strong regulatory relationship that we have right now to both grow cross-border and then to start to slowly, but surely add incremental services into the domestic market as well.

我認為我們有很多方式可以運用我們的優勢、我們在中國境內合作夥伴的優勢，以及我們目前非常穩固的監管關係，來同時推動跨境成長，並且再逐步、但確實地把增量服務也導入境內市場。

Our next question will come from the line of Dan Dolev of Mizuho.

下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Dan Dolev。

A question for Dan, really kind of looking into the long term. It looks like PayPal is increasingly becoming sort of, in my view, the world's best super app, especially now that you're offering bitcoin, QR, buy now, pay later and counting. Can you maybe talk a little bit of what you're seeing in terms of engagement that brings PayPal closer to becoming an everyday super app? Maybe touch on your broader engagement strategy given the 73 million accounts that you added in 2020. And what are your long-term digital wallet ambitions as you introduce additional functionality and services?

有個問題想請教 Dan，主要是從長期角度來看。在我看來，PayPal 似乎正愈來愈成為全球最好的超級 App，尤其是你們現在提供比特幣、QR、先買後付（buy now, pay later）等功能，而且還在持續增加。你能否談談你們在互動（engagement）方面看到的情況，這些互動如何讓 PayPal 更接近成為一個日常使用的超級 App？也請談談你們在 2020 年新增 7,300 萬帳戶之後，更廣泛的互動策略。以及當你們引入更多功能與服務時，你們對數位錢包的長期企圖心是什麼？

Yes. Dan, that's a great question, kind of goes at the heart of a lot of our strategy. And we're going to be talking a lot about that at our Investor Day next week as well.

好的。Dan，這是一個很好的問題，確實切中我們許多策略的核心。我們也會在下週的投資人日（Investor Day）更深入談這些。

So let me just very quickly say that we are seeing engagement levels already. I talked about it. If you normalize for Honey and all the incremental net new actives that we brought in that are bending our traditional curves. We've never really been above 9% or 10%. Normalized, we're at about 11.5% of growth. Our churn rates are down. All of the new functionality that we've put into place, whether that be crypto or that be buy now, pay later, the Venmo card, QR codes, are adding to usage.

我先很快說一下，我們已經看到互動水準的提升。我之前提過，如果把 Honey 以及我們新增的所有淨新增活躍帳戶（net new actives）所造成、使我們傳統曲線產生偏移的因素做標準化處理，我們過去從未真正高於 9% 或 10%。標準化後，我們大約是 11.5% 的成長。我們的流失率（churn rates）下降了。我們導入的所有新功能，不論是加密貨幣（crypto）、先買後付、Venmo 卡、QR Code，都在提升使用量。

They're adding incremental TPV, they're adding incremental transactions. Once stat I didn't mention is that people who use a PayPal product in store. And again, these are early days on this, but those that are using it in-store, we're seeing, Dan, 54 incremental transactions that are just in-store, that don't displace the online.

它們帶來增量的 TPV，也帶來增量的交易筆數。有一個我沒提到的數據是：使用 PayPal 產品進行店內（in-store）消費的人——當然，這方面目前還在早期階段——但對於那些在店內使用的人，我們看到，Dan，有 54 筆增量交易是純粹來自店內的，並沒有排擠線上交易。

It's just -- it's basically doubling the number of transactions we have. And so as we start to build out our digital wallet really into this super app that transcends across payments, commerce and financial services, all of that on a common platform, all of that leveraging, common data elements and machine learning on top of that to give next best recommendations, I think we are going to see, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, a real bend in the historic rate of engagement. And it's going to be all around that super app functionality in that digital wallet, moving well beyond just payments.

這基本上——等於把我們的交易筆數翻倍。因此，當我們開始把數位錢包真正打造為這個跨越支付、商務與金融服務的超級 App，所有功能都在同一個平台上運作，並且在其上運用共同的資料要素與機器學習，提供下一個最佳建議（next best recommendations），我認為我們將會看到——如我在開場致詞中提到的——互動率的歷史增速出現明顯的彎折上升。而這將完全圍繞在數位錢包中的超級 App 功能，遠遠超越僅僅是支付。

So I think, Dan, thank you for a great kind of closing question. And I want to thank everybody for your time today. And I really hope that all of you and your families are safe and healthy. And we are looking forward to speaking with all of you again next week at our Investor Day. So thank you for your time, and everybody take care. Bye-bye.

所以，Dan，謝謝你這個很好的、可說是收尾的問題。我也要感謝各位今天撥冗參與。我真心希望你們以及你們的家人都平安健康。我們也期待在下週的投資人日再次與各位交流。謝謝大家的時間，請各位保重。再見。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛線。