PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Gabriel, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to PayPal Holdings earnings conference call for the fourth quarter and full year 2020. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Ms. Gabrielle Rabinovitch, Vice President, Corporate Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

各位下午好。我叫 Gabriel，今天將擔任本次會議的接線員。此刻，我謹代表公司歡迎各位參加 PayPal Holdings 2020 年第四季及全年財報電話會議。（接線員指示）現在我想介紹今天會議的主持人：Gabrielle Rabinovitch 女士，企業財務與投資人關係副總裁。請開始。

Thank you, Gabriel. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. Welcome to PayPal's earnings conference call for the first quarter 2021. Joining me today on the call are Dan Schulman, our President and CEO; and John Rainey, our Chief Financial Officer and EVP, Global Customer Operations.

謝謝你，Gabriel。各位下午好，感謝各位加入我們。歡迎參加 PayPal 2021 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：我們的總裁兼執行長 Dan Schulman，以及我們的財務長暨全球客戶營運執行副總裁 John Rainey。

We're providing a slide presentation to accompany our commentary. This conference call is also being webcast. And both the presentation and call are available on the Investor Relations section of our website.

我們提供投影片簡報以配合我們的說明。本次電話會議也將進行網路直播。簡報與電話會議內容皆可於我們網站的投資人關係專區取得。

In discussing our company's performance, we will refer to some non-GAAP measures. You can find the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the presentation accompanying this conference call. Management will make forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations, forecasts and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. These statements include our guidance for the second quarter and full year 2021. Our actual results may differ materially from these statements. You can find more information about risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our results in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC and available on the Investor Relations section of our website. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements.

在討論本公司營運表現時，我們將引用部分非 GAAP 指標。您可在隨本次電話會議提供之簡報中，找到這些非 GAAP 指標與最直接可比之 GAAP 指標的調節表。管理層將作出前瞻性陳述，該等陳述係基於我們目前的預期、預測與假設，並涉及風險與不確定性。這些陳述包括我們對 2021 年第二季及全年之指引。我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述存在重大差異。關於可能影響我們結果之風險、不確定性及其他因素的更多資訊，請參閱我們最近提交予美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的 Form 10-K 年度報告與 Form 10-Q 季度報告，並可於我們網站的投資人關係專區取得。您不應過度依賴任何前瞻性陳述。

All information in this presentation is as of today's date, May 5, 2021. We expressly disclaim any obligation to update this information.

本簡報中的所有資訊截至今日（2021 年 5 月 5 日）。我們明確聲明不承擔更新該等資訊的任何義務。

With that, let me turn the call over to Dan.

接下來，讓我把電話交給 Dan。

Thanks, Gabrielle, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. I'm pleased to say that on the heels of the strongest year in PayPal's history, we just completed our strongest quarter ever with record financial and operating results. Customers across the world have clearly embraced the digital economy, and PayPal has become an essential platform for both consumers and merchants. Consequently, I'm pleased to share that we are raising our annual targets for revenue, EPS, TPV and net new active accounts.

謝謝你，Gabrielle，也謝謝各位今天加入我們。我很高興地表示，在 PayPal 歷史上最強勁的一年之後，我們剛完成了史上最強的一季，創下財務與營運成果的新紀錄。全球客戶顯然已擁抱數位經濟，而 PayPal 已成為消費者與商家不可或缺的平台。因此，我很高興與各位分享：我們將上調全年營收、每股盈餘（EPS）、總支付金額（TPV）以及淨新增活躍帳戶（NNA）的年度目標。

As much of the world begins to shift its attention towards a post-pandemic recovery, we continue to see strong demand for a comprehensive set of services from both our merchants and consumers. Over the coming year, we will accelerate our customers' digital engagement through the rapid innovation of our digital wallet and merchant commerce platform.

隨著全球多數地區開始將焦點轉向疫情後的復甦，我們仍持續看到商家與消費者對一套完整服務組合的強勁需求。在未來一年，我們將透過快速創新我們的數位錢包與商家商務平台，加速提升客戶的數位互動程度。

Our addressable market continues to significantly expand driven by accelerating secular trends and the proactive steps we are taking to become a full commerce and payments platform. We believe that the shift in consumer digital behavior will remain essentially unchanged in a post-COVID world. Consumers have expanded their digital lives into a seamless online and off-line experience. Our products are an essential enabler of the digital economy, and our mission to shape a future where everyone can participate fully in this new digital paradigm has never been more important.

在加速的長期結構性趨勢推動下，加上我們主動採取措施以成為完整的商務與支付平台，我們的可服務市場持續大幅擴張。我們相信，在後 COVID 時代，消費者的數位行為轉變將基本維持不變。消費者已將其數位生活擴展為線上與線下無縫整合的體驗。我們的產品是數位經濟的重要推動者，而我們「塑造一個人人都能充分參與此一新數位典範的未來」之使命，從未如此重要。

Our Q1 trends are strong across the board and were further accelerated by favorable comps from a year ago. Our TPV grew by 50% on a spot basis or 46% on an FXN basis to $285 billion. eBay now represents 5.5% of our volume, and we expect their TPV to be approximately 3% of total volumes by year-end. Excluding eBay, our MS volumes grew by an all-time high of 54% on a spot basis and 50% on an FXN basis.

我們第一季的趨勢全面強勁，且在去年同期較有利的比較基期下進一步加速。我們的 TPV 以即期匯率計成長 50%，或以固定匯率（FXN）計成長 46%，達到 2,850 億美元。eBay 目前占我們交易量的 5.5%，我們預期其 TPV 到年底約占總交易量的 3%。排除 eBay 後，我們的商家服務（MS）交易量以即期匯率計創歷史新高成長 54%，或以 FXN 計成長 50%。

Our transactions in the quarter were approximately 4.4 billion, growing 34% year-over-year. We added 14.5 million net new active accounts, ending the quarter with 392 million active accounts, up 21% year-over-year. We added 1.4 million new merchants in the quarter, continuing the heightened pace from prior quarters, and we now have 31 million merchant accounts on our platform. By the end of Q2, we expect to exceed 400 million active accounts. And for the year, we now believe our NNAs will be between 52 million to 55 million, up from our previous expectations of approximately 50 million last quarter. I'm particularly pleased to see our transactions per active account begin to accelerate due to increased engagement across our portfolio.

本季交易筆數約為 44 億筆，年增 34%。我們新增 1,450 萬個淨新增活躍帳戶，季末活躍帳戶達 3.92 億個，年增 21%。本季新增 140 萬家新商戶，延續前幾季的加速步伐，目前平台上商戶帳戶達 3,100 萬個。到第二季末，我們預期活躍帳戶將超過 4 億個。就全年而言，我們目前認為淨新增活躍帳戶將介於 5,200 萬至 5,500 萬之間，高於上一季先前約 5,000 萬的預期。我尤其高興看到，由於我們產品組合的互動度提升，每位活躍帳戶的交易次數開始加速成長。

Normalizing for Honey, our Q1 TPA grew by 8.3% year-over-year to 44.1. We generated $6.033 billion of revenue in Q1, growing a record 31% spot and 29% on an FXN basis. eBay revenues declined 12%, and we expect they will substantially complete their migration to manage payments by year-end. On the back of this strong revenue growth, we delivered non-GAAP EPS in Q1 of $1.22, up 84%.

若將 Honey 的影響正常化處理，我們第一季每位活躍帳戶交易次數（TPA）年增 8.3% 至 44.1。第一季營收為 60.33 億美元，以即期匯率計創紀錄成長 31%，或以 FXN 計成長 29%。eBay 相關營收下滑 12%，我們預期其將於年底前基本完成遷移至其自主管理的支付系統。在強勁營收成長的帶動下，我們第一季非 GAAP 每股盈餘為 1.22 美元，年增 84%。

Venmo continued its strong performance in Q1 with $51.4 billion of TPV, up 63% year-over-year. We recently launched the ability for Venmo customers to buy, sell and hold cryptocurrencies. We are heavily investing in Venmo's commerce capabilities, which include rapidly upgrading the Pay with Venmo customer experience with initial rollout beginning this quarter. The Venmo credit card is outpacing our expectations for both new accounts and transactions. And we're also making it easier for small businesses and casual sellers,to accept Venmo payments. We now have over 300,000 small business profiles currently established, including $200,000 in Q1 alone. Our Venmo Commerce TPV and revenue growth continued to accelerate, and we remain confident in our $900 million revenue target.

Venmo 在第一季延續強勁表現，TPV 達 514 億美元，年增 63%。我們近期推出 Venmo 客戶可買入、賣出並持有加密貨幣的功能。我們正大力投資 Venmo 的商務能力，包括快速升級「使用 Venmo 付款」（Pay with Venmo）的客戶體驗，並於本季開始初步推出。Venmo 信用卡在新開戶數與交易量方面均超出我們預期。我們也讓小型企業與個人賣家更容易接受 Venmo 付款。目前已建立超過 30 萬個小型企業檔案，其中僅第一季就新增 20 萬個。我們的 Venmo 商務 TPV 與營收成長持續加速，我們對 9 億美元的營收目標仍充滿信心。

We expect to roll out our next-generation digital wallet in Q3. It will be an all-in-one personalized app that will empower our users to make the most of their money and strengthen their financial lives every day. We will provide increasingly customized and unique shopping, financial services and payments experiences for our customers.

我們預期於第三季推出下一代數位錢包。它將是一款一站式的個人化 App，協助用戶更有效運用資金，並每日強化其財務生活。我們將為客戶提供愈來愈客製化且獨特的購物、金融服務與支付體驗。

Consumers are turning to brands that they trust when it comes to choosing a super app. That clearly plays into our strength as a recent external survey of over 300,000 consumers across the globe selected PayPal as the second most trusted brand in the world. Merchants continue to turn to PayPal in record numbers as we are now an essential platform to enable their transition into the digital economy. Small businesses who used PayPal during the peak of the pandemic saw their overall revenues grow by 25% versus a negative 9% for all other small businesses in the same time period.

在選擇超級 App 時，消費者會轉向他們信任的品牌。這顯然是我們的優勢：近期一項外部調查針對全球超過 30 萬名消費者，將 PayPal 評選為全球第二受信任的品牌。商家也以前所未有的速度選擇 PayPal，因為我們如今已成為協助其轉型進入數位經濟的關鍵平台。在疫情高峰期間使用 PayPal 的小型企業，其整體營收成長 25%，相較之下，同期其他所有小型企業的營收為負成長 9%。

Small businesses who used PayPal last year drove 75% of their online sales from outside their local neighborhood, clearly expanding their addressable market. And 65% of small businesses in the U.S. who use PayPal have cross-border sales versus less than 5% of all other small businesses. Across the shopping journey, merchants who use PayPal see a substantial lift.

去年使用 PayPal 的小型企業，其線上銷售中有 75% 來自其在地社區以外，顯著擴大了其可觸及市場。此外，美國使用 PayPal 的小型企業中，有 65% 具有跨境銷售，而其他所有小型企業的比例不到 5%。在整個購物旅程中，使用 PayPal 的商家都能看到顯著的提升。

According to market research reported by Nielsen, merchants with PayPal experienced 17% more repeat buyers. Their checkout completion goes up by 34%. And PayPal consumers spend an average of 12% more at PayPal merchants. And finally, PayPal consumers are loyal to PayPal merchants, buying 11% more often when PayPal is accepted.

根據 Nielsen 所報導的市場研究，使用 PayPal 的商家回購買家多 17%。其結帳完成率提升 34%。而 PayPal 消費者在 PayPal 商家的平均消費金額高出 12%。最後，PayPal 消費者對 PayPal 商家具有高度忠誠度：當商家接受 PayPal 時，消費者購買頻率提高 11%。

These are powerful facts that support our brand promise to retailers as we add more and more capabilities to our platform. For instance, our Buy Now, Pay Later product continues to move from strength to strength. In the short time from our launch, we've processed over $1 billion in TPV in the U.S. alone. Early results continue to show a significant 15% engagement lift in transactions and TPV. In addition, nearly 30,000 merchants have implemented our Buy Now, Pay Later capabilities upstream on their product pages with a corresponding lift in our overall share of checkout.

這些有力的事實支持我們對零售商的品牌承諾，因為我們持續為平台加入愈來愈多的功能。例如，我們的「先買後付」（Buy Now, Pay Later）產品持續表現亮眼。自推出以來的短時間內，僅在美國我們就已處理超過 10 億美元的 TPV。初步結果持續顯示，交易筆數與 TPV 的互動度顯著提升 15%。此外，近 30,000 家商戶已在其產品頁面上游導入我們的先買後付功能，並相應提升了我們在整體結帳環節的占比。

Demand for our PayPal and Venmo QR codes and in-store payments remains strong, with an additional merchant signing up every 28 seconds. We now have nearly 1 million merchants accepting our QR codes with continued momentum across our large enterprise merchants. Our early adopters of QRC are spending 19% more TPV on the PayPal platform. Our overall in-store efforts across QR and cards equaled $6.4 billion in Q1.

市場對我們的 PayPal 與 Venmo QR Code 以及店內支付的需求仍然強勁，平均每 28 秒就有一位新增商戶加入。我們目前已有近 100 萬家商戶接受我們的 QR Code，且在大型企業商戶中持續保持動能。我們的 QR Code（QRC）早期採用者在 PayPal 平台上的 TPV 支出高出 19%。我們第一季在店內（涵蓋 QR 與卡片）的整體成果達 64 億美元。

As I discussed during our Investor Day, we believe the current technological underpinnings of our financial system will be substantially upgraded over the coming years. Both cryptocurrencies and central bank-issued digital currencies can play a critical role in shaping a more inclusive recovery and a more equitable financial system. Our leadership in all forms of digital currency has been widely embraced, enabling numerous positive conversations with central banks, regulators and government officials around the world.

正如我在我們的投資人日所討論的，我們相信未來幾年，我們金融體系目前的技術基礎將會大幅升級。加密貨幣與中央銀行發行的數位貨幣都能在塑造更具包容性的復甦，以及更公平的金融體系方面扮演關鍵角色。我們在各種形式的數位貨幣領域的領導地位已獲得廣泛認可，使我們得以與全球各地的中央銀行、監管機構與政府官員展開許多正向的對話。

I'm also pleased to share that we closed our Curv acquisition last month. And Curv's talented team will bolster our existing technology resources and accelerate our efforts to shape a new financial infrastructure that is efficient, low-cost and inclusive.

我也很高興與各位分享，我們已於上個月完成對 Curv 的收購交割。Curv 優秀的團隊將強化我們既有的技術資源，並加速我們打造一個高效率、低成本且具包容性的新金融基礎設施的努力。

We have an extensive road map ahead of us, and our innovation will be pursued in partnership with governments and in compliance with local, national and global regulatory frameworks.

我們前方有一份龐大的路線圖，而我們的創新將在與各國政府合作、並遵循地方、國家及全球監管框架的前提下推進。

The expiration of our operating agreement with eBay has enabled us to launch an extensive partnership with Alibaba. This global agreement will enable hundreds of millions of consumers outside of China to shop across Alibaba sites in China.

我們與 eBay 的營運協議到期，使我們得以與阿里巴巴展開廣泛的合作夥伴關係。這項全球協議將讓中國以外的數億名消費者能在阿里巴巴於中國的各個網站上購物。

PayPal is now available as a payment method on Alibaba's wholesale marketplace as well as Ali Express, its global retail marketplace. We are excited at the pace of our current ramp and the ultimate potential of this new partnership. Additionally, our commercial agreement with FlutterWave enables businesses across Africa to have significantly more access to PayPal consumers in order to receive and make payments online. In this quarter, we also collaborated with TelR in the Middle East, allowing merchants in the UAE to accept PayPal for customers shopping online. These efforts serve to significantly broaden our reach and tap into rapidly growing marketplaces across the globe.

PayPal 現已可作為付款方式，適用於阿里巴巴的批發市場以及其全球零售市場 AliExpress。我們對目前導入推進的速度以及這項新合作夥伴關係的最終潛力感到振奮。此外，我們與 FlutterWave 的商業協議，使非洲各地的企業能大幅提升接觸 PayPal 消費者的機會，以便線上收付款。本季我們也與中東的 TelR 合作，讓阿聯酋的商家能在顧客線上購物時接受 PayPal 付款。這些努力將顯著擴大我們的觸及範圍，並切入全球快速成長的市場。

We clearly have a lot of momentum as we exit Q1. We will continue to accelerate new product innovation throughout the year. Our increased expectations for 2021 reflect our conviction that we will continue to grow share and increase our addressable market by capitalizing on the accelerating shift to digital.

在第一季結束之際，我們顯然具備強勁動能。我們將在全年持續加速新產品創新。我們對 2021 年提高的預期，反映出我們的信念：透過把握加速轉向數位化的趨勢，我們將持續提升市占並擴大可服務市場。

I'd like to thank our employees who continue to work tirelessly on behalf of our customers. Their hard work drives our market leadership and positions us to continue to deliver value for all of our stakeholders. And with that, let me turn the call over to John.

我要感謝我們的員工，他們持續不懈地為客戶努力。他們的辛勤工作推動了我們的市場領導地位，並使我們能持續為所有利害關係人創造價值。接下來，我把電話交給 John。

Thanks, Dan. I want to start by thanking our customers, partners and employees for helping us deliver an outstanding quarter. We recently marked 1 year into the COVID-19 pandemic. Notwithstanding the challenges that our teams have faced, our focus on execution and culture of collaboration are allowing us to deliver very strong results. We're off to a great start to the year. In Q1, we outperformed on both revenue and earnings and built on our operational and financial momentum exiting 2020.

謝謝你，Dan。我想先感謝我們的客戶、合作夥伴與員工，協助我們交出一個出色的季度。我們最近剛迎來 COVID-19 疫情滿 1 年。儘管我們的團隊面臨各種挑戰，我們對執行力的專注以及協作文化，讓我們得以交出非常強勁的成果。我們在今年有個很好的開局。第一季，我們在營收與獲利上都超出預期，並延續了 2020 年底的營運與財務動能。

In looking at our results for the quarter, the year-over-year growth rates benefit from the comparison to a softer March last year when we absorbed the most meaningful negative COVID impact. That said, our business is growing at structurally faster rates than pre-pandemic. And as a result, we're raising our guidance for this year.

檢視本季的結果時，年對年成長率受惠於與去年較疲弱的 3 月相比；當時我們承受了最顯著的 COVID 負面影響。即便如此，我們的業務成長速度在結構上仍快於疫情前。因此，我們上調了今年的財測指引。

Before discussing our updated outlook, I'd like to highlight our Q1 results. Total payment volume grew 50% at spot and 46% on a currency-neutral basis. This is the strongest quarterly growth we've ever reported. Our Q1 TPV grew at a 2-year compound annual growth rate of 33%, accelerating from 30% in Q4 and reflecting our strong momentum in user growth. Notably, while we typically experience a sequential decline in volumes from Q4 to Q1, this year, our volume grew 3% quarter-over-quarter. Versus the first quarter last year, merchant services volume grew 50% currency-neutral. And volume contributed by eBay marketplaces declined 3% on the same basis.

在討論我們更新後的展望之前，我想先強調第一季的成果。總支付交易量（TPV）以即期匯率計成長 50%，以固定匯率（排除匯率影響）計成長 46%。這是我們有史以來所報告的最強單季成長。第一季 TPV 的兩年複合年成長率為 33%，較第四季的 30% 加速，反映我們在用戶成長上的強勁動能。值得注意的是，雖然我們通常會在第四季到第一季之間出現季節性量能下滑，但今年我們的量能季增 3%。相較去年第一季，商家服務量能在固定匯率基礎下成長 50%。而由 eBay 市集貢獻的量能在同一基礎下下滑 3%。

In Q1, eBay represented 5.5% of our volume, down 53 basis points sequentially and down 260 basis points from Q1 last year. Revenue increased a record 31% on spot basis and 29% currency neutral to $6 billion. Transaction revenue grew 33% to $5.6 billion, representing 20 points of acceleration from last year on a spot basis and 8 points of acceleration sequentially. Strong performance across core PayPal, Braintree and Venmo drove these results. Excluding eBay, transaction revenue grew 42%, indicative of the ongoing strength of our diversified 2-sided platform.

第一季，eBay 佔我們量能的 5.5%，較前一季下降 53 個基點，較去年第一季下降 260 個基點。營收以即期匯率計創紀錄成長 31%，以固定匯率計成長 29%，達 60 億美元。交易營收成長 33% 至 56 億美元，以即期匯率計較去年加速 20 個百分點，且較前一季加速 8 個百分點。核心 PayPal、Braintree 與 Venmo 的強勁表現帶動了這些成果。排除 eBay 後，交易營收成長 42%，顯示我們多元化雙邊平台持續展現強勁動能。

Other value-added services revenue grew 2% on a spot basis and 1% currency neutral to $412 million. These results were driven by strengthening credit performance, which was partially offset by lower interest income on customer balances.

其他加值服務營收以即期匯率計成長 2%，以固定匯率計成長 1%，達 4.12 億美元。這些結果主要由信用品質表現改善所帶動，但部分被客戶餘額利息收入下降所抵銷。

In the first quarter, transaction take rate was 1.97%, and total take rate was 2.11%. Nearly 1/3 of the 24 basis point decline in transaction take rate resulted from the mix effect of eBay. A reduction of $101 million in international transaction revenue from foreign currency hedges, growth in bill payment volumes and accelerating Venmo volumes also contributed to this decline. The 31 basis point decline in total take rate resulted from these factors as well as lower growth in other value-added services revenue. Volume-based expense performance was the strongest in our history. These expenses increased only 9% to $2.5 billion on 31% revenue growth. As a result, transaction margin dollars grew 52% in the first quarter, and transaction margin reached 57.8%. Normalizing for the macroeconomic-related credit loss provisioning last year, transaction margin dollars grew 38%.

第一季，交易抽成率為 1.97%，總抽成率為 2.11%。交易抽成率下降 24 個基點中，接近 1/3 來自 eBay 的組合效應。外匯避險導致國際交易營收減少 1.01 億美元、帳單支付量能成長，以及 Venmo 量能加速，也共同造成此一下降。總抽成率下降 31 個基點，除上述因素外，也受到其他加值服務營收成長放緩的影響。以量能為基礎的費用表現為我們歷史最佳。在營收成長 31% 的情況下，這些費用僅增加 9% 至 25 億美元。因此，第一季交易毛利金額成長 52%，交易毛利率達 57.8%。若將去年與總體經濟相關的信用損失提列影響予以常態化調整，交易毛利金額成長 38%。

Going into the expense highlights. Transaction expense improved 12 basis points as a rate of TPV to a record low of 80 basis points, driven by both volume and funding mix. Continued improvements in our risk decisioning and mitigation strategies resulted in transaction losses improving 3 basis points to another record low rate of 10 basis points overall.

接著說明費用重點。交易費用占 TPV 的比率改善 12 個基點，降至創新低的 80 個基點，主要由量能與資金來源組合所帶動。我們在風險決策與緩解策略上的持續改善，使交易損失率再度改善 3 個基點，整體降至另一個創新低的 10 個基點。

In discussing our credit losses for the quarter, I want to provide additional context given the increased provisioning last year and the complexity in the year-over-year comparison. As a reminder, in Q1 2020, we increased reserves by $227 million for expected credit losses due to the deterioration in the macroeconomic environment. After taxes, this represented a negative $0.17 per share impact.

在討論本季的信用損失時，鑑於去年提列增加以及年對年比較的複雜性，我想提供更多背景。提醒一下，在 2020 年第一季，由於總體經濟環境惡化，我們為預期信用損失增加準備金 2.27 億美元。稅後相當於每股盈餘（EPS）負面影響 0.17 美元。

During 2020, we increased our reserve coverage ratio and ended the year at 23%. In addition, our gross receivables balance declined from $4.5 billion at the end of the first quarter last year to $3.6 billion at the end of 2020. Tightened underwriting and strong repayment activity contributed to lower balances in our merchant loan portfolio. This decline was partially offset by growth in our consumer portfolio. These trends continued in the first quarter of 2021, and we ended the quarter with $3.5 billion in receivables. More favorable economic conditions and portfolio performance resulted in a partial release of reserves in Q1. This reserve release benefited credit losses by approximately $87 million and provided an approximate $0.06 benefit to EPS. As a result, at the end of the first quarter, our reserve coverage ratio declined to 21%.

在 2020 年期間，我們提高了準備金覆蓋率，並在年底達到 23%。此外，我們的應收帳款總額從去年第一季末的 45 億美元下降至 2020 年底的 36 億美元。更嚴格的授信審核與強勁的還款活動，使我們的商家貸款組合餘額下降；而此一下降部分被消費者組合的成長所抵銷。這些趨勢在 2021 年第一季持續，我們在季末的應收帳款為 35 億美元。較有利的經濟狀況與投組表現，使我們在第一季部分釋放準備金。此一準備金釋放使信用損失約減少 8,700 萬美元，並對 EPS 帶來約 0.06 美元的正面貢獻。因此，在第一季末，我們的準備金覆蓋率下降至 21%。

In the quarter, nontransaction-related operating expenses increased 31% and represented 30% of revenue, remaining essentially flat to last year. We are prioritizing growth. And to advance our key initiatives, we're continuing to invest more in sales and marketing and technology and development. On a non-GAAP basis, operating income was $1.67 billion, and our operating margin was 27.7%, our strongest performance for any first quarter. Normalizing only for the macro-related provisioning last year, operating income grew 46% and operating margin expanded approximately 300 basis points. In Q1, on this normalized basis and inclusive of our elevated investment spend, we earned an incremental $0.38 of operating income for every additional dollar of revenue generated.

本季，非交易相關營運費用增加 31%，占營收比重為 30%，與去年基本持平。我們將成長列為優先事項。為推進關鍵計畫，我們持續加大對銷售與行銷，以及技術與開發的投資。以非 GAAP 基礎計，營業利益為 16.7 億美元，營業利益率為 27.7%，為任何第一季中的最佳表現。若僅就去年與總體相關的提列進行常態化調整，營業利益成長 46%，營業利益率擴張約 300 個基點。在第一季，以此常態化基礎並納入我們較高的投資支出計算，我們每增加 1 美元營收，便可額外賺取 0.38 美元的營業利益。

Non-GAAP other income declined by $39 million relative to last year. This was driven by reduced interest income from lower interest rates and higher interest expense from our debt issuance last May. The negative impact on non-GAAP EPS from the decline in other income was largely offset by a lower effective tax rate. For the first quarter, non-GAAP EPS grew 84% to $1.22. Again, normalizing for the $0.17 negative impact last year related to increased credit provisioning, non-GAAP EPS still grew 47%.

非 GAAP 其他收入較去年減少 3,900 萬美元，主要因利率下降導致利息收入減少，以及去年 5 月發債使利息費用增加。其他收入下降對非 GAAP 每股盈餘的負面影響，大多被較低的有效稅率所抵銷。第一季非 GAAP EPS 成長 84% 至 1.22 美元。同樣地，若將去年因增加信用提列所造成的每股 0.17 美元負面影響予以常態化調整，非 GAAP EPS 仍成長 47%。

We ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and investments of $19.1 billion. In addition, we generated $1.54 billion in free cash flow, representing 27% growth from the first quarter last year. For every dollar of revenue in the first quarter, we generated $0.25 of free cash flow.

我們在本季末的現金、約當現金及投資合計為191億美元。此外，我們產生了15.4億美元的自由現金流，較去年第一季成長27%。在第一季每1美元的營收中，我們產生了0.25美元的自由現金流。

Now I'd like to discuss our updated guidance for 2021 and our guidance for the second quarter. This updated outlook reflects our ability to accelerate growth at scale at increasing rates of profitability as well as the underlying strength of our core business.

接下來我想討論我們對2021年的最新指引，以及對第二季的指引。這份更新後的展望反映了我們有能力在規模化的基礎上加速成長，並以更高的獲利率提升，同時也反映我們核心業務的基本面強勁。

For the full year 2021, based on our record first quarter performance and sustained momentum, we are raising our net new active TPV revenue and earnings outlook. Relative to our prior expectations, eBay's managed payments transition has accelerated, and we now expect a greater percentage of the migration to be complete by the end of the third quarter. This acceleration puts more near-term pressure on our revenue and earnings growth. At the same time, this more compressed timing allows for a cleaner exit in 2021.

就2021年全年而言，基於我們創紀錄的第一季表現與持續的動能，我們上調淨新增活躍TPV、營收與獲利展望。相較於先前預期，eBay的管理式支付（managed payments）轉換已加速，我們現在預期在第三季末前會完成更高比例的遷移。這項加速在短期內對我們的營收與獲利成長帶來更大壓力。同時，較為壓縮的時程也使我們能在2021年更乾淨俐落地退出。

Broad-based strength in our Merchant Services business and improving credit performance allowed us to more than offset this impact. We now expect revenue to be approximately $25.75 billion for a growth of approximately 20% on a spot basis for the year. We are raising our expectations for revenue growth by 1 point while at the same time absorbing an additional 2 points of pressure to revenue growth from eBay.

我們商戶服務（Merchant Services）業務的廣泛強勁表現，以及信用表現的改善，使我們得以大幅抵消這項影響。我們目前預期全年營收約為257.5億美元，以即期（spot）基礎計算約成長20%。我們將營收成長預期上調1個百分點，同時也吸收來自eBay對營收成長額外2個百分點的壓力。

In addition, we expect to generate approximately 100 basis points of operating margin expansion this year relative to the more modest margin expansion we had guided at the start of the year. As a result, we now expect non-GAAP earnings per share to be approximately $4.70, representing growth of approximately 21%. Relative to the guidance we provided at the start of the year, this is an additional 4 points of non-GAAP earnings growth in 2021.

此外，相較於年初所指引的較溫和幅度，我們預期今年將帶來約100個基點的營業利益率擴張。因此，我們目前預期非GAAP每股盈餘約為4.70美元，約成長21%。相較於年初提供的指引，這相當於2021年非GAAP盈餘成長額外增加4個百分點。

We're executing from a position of strength and seeing strong adoption of our new products and services. Our updated guidance includes increased investment in our digital wallet initiatives to drive further innovation, adoption and engagement. The strong underlying trends in our business and Q1 outperformance are allowing us to offset these incremental investments and the more pronounced eBay headwinds to deliver stronger earnings growth than we previously expected.

我們正以優勢地位執行，並看到新產品與服務的採用強勁。我們更新後的指引包含增加對數位錢包計畫的投資，以推動進一步的創新、採用與互動。我們業務的強勁基本趨勢與第一季的超預期表現，使我們得以抵消這些增量投資，以及更明顯的eBay逆風，從而交出比先前預期更強的盈餘成長。

For the second quarter, we expect revenue of approximately $6.25 billion, representing approximately 19% growth at spot. In addition, we expect non-GAAP earnings per share for Q2 to be approximately $1.12, representing growth of approximately 5%.

就第二季而言，我們預期營收約為62.5億美元，以即期計算約成長19%。此外，我們預期第二季非GAAP每股盈餘約為1.12美元，約成長5%。

As a reminder, last year, operating margin expanded more than 500 basis points in the second quarter. Favorable volume and funding mix dynamics, combined with COVID-related underspend and nontransaction-related expenses, contributed to the strong margin performance and resulted in 49% growth in non-GAAP EPS. This record growth last year creates a tougher comparison. On a 2-year compound annual basis, our earnings guidance reflects 25% growth.

提醒一下，去年第二季營業利益率擴張超過500個基點。有利的交易量與資金來源組合動態，加上與COVID相關的支出不足以及非交易相關費用，共同促成強勁的利潤率表現，並帶來非GAAP每股盈餘49%的成長。去年這樣的創紀錄成長使得比較基期更具挑戰。以兩年複合年成長率計算，我們的盈餘指引反映25%的成長。

I'd also like to discuss our updated net new active outlook. We're raising our guidance for 2021 net new active accounts. Based on the 14.5 million additional accounts in Q1 and our current trends, we now expect to add in the range of 52 million to 55 million net new users this year. This is an increase from the 50 million net new actives that we guided to start the year. On top of the approximately 73 million users added last year, at our current pace, we'll add more new users between last year and this year than we did in 2016, '17, '18 and '19 combined.

我也想談談我們更新後的淨新增活躍帳戶展望。我們上調2021年淨新增活躍帳戶的指引。基於第一季新增的1,450萬個帳戶以及目前的趨勢，我們現在預期今年將新增約5,200萬至5,500萬名淨新增用戶。這高於我們年初指引的5,000萬名淨新增活躍用戶。在去年新增約7,300萬名用戶的基礎上，以我們目前的速度，今年與去年合計新增的新用戶數將超過2016、2017、2018與2019年四年合計的新增數。

As a reminder, in Q2 last year, we added 21.3 million accounts and are now lapping this growth. Given this tougher comp, and the ramp of our initiatives throughout the year, we expect Q2 net new actives to be lower than Q1 and for Q3 and Q4 adds to be sequentially stronger.

提醒一下，去年第二季我們新增了2,130萬個帳戶，而我們現在正進入與該成長相比較的期間。鑑於這個更具挑戰的比較基期，以及我們各項計畫在全年逐步推進，我們預期第二季淨新增活躍帳戶將低於第一季，而第三季與第四季的新增數將逐季走強。

It's worth noting a couple of points related to our guidance and our business overall.

關於我們的指引以及整體業務，有幾點值得注意。

First, the environment in which we are operating, while more stable than a year ago, continues to be very dynamic and more challenging to predict than in normal times. In many of our core markets, we're on the threshold of some degree of a return to normalcy. People are getting vaccinated. There's a return to physical experiences. Travel is resuming. Some of this is certainly pent-up demand from the void that resulted from COVID-19 over the last year. For some, perhaps it may be a reversion to the way things were prior to 2020. The pace and degree of this change and its impact on the trends on our business is challenging to predict from 1 quarter to the next with the same level of certainty that we have in normal times.

第一，我們所處的營運環境雖然比一年前更穩定，但仍然非常動態，且比正常時期更難預測。在我們許多核心市場中，我們正處於某種程度回歸常態的門檻上。人們正在接種疫苗。實體體驗正在回歸。旅遊正在恢復。其中一部分無疑是過去一年因COVID-19造成空缺所累積的被壓抑需求。對某些人而言，或許也可能回到2020年前的生活方式。這些變化的速度與程度，以及其對我們業務趨勢的影響，相較於正常時期，我們很難在每一季之間以同樣的確定性加以預測。

This brings me to my second point, which is unassailable. Our business has and will continue to benefit from the changes in consumer behavior that have resulted from this pandemic, namely, the acceleration of the continuing trend of the growth in e-commerce penetration and importantly, the growing ubiquity of digital payment experiences. We continue to see elevated e-commerce spending well above pre-pandemic levels, even in countries and markets that have begun to reopen. We're positioned to be a long-term beneficiary of these secular trends and as we've repeatedly said, are investing heavily to help shape this outcome. That said, our short-term forecasting is susceptible to more variability than normal.

這帶到我的第二點，而且這點無可爭辯。我們的業務已經並將持續受益於這場疫情所帶來的消費者行為改變，也就是電商滲透率成長這一持續趨勢的加速，以及更重要的是數位支付體驗日益普及。我們持續看到電商支出維持在遠高於疫情前的水準，即使在已開始重新開放的國家與市場亦然。我們有望成為這些長期結構性趨勢的長期受益者，而且如我們一再強調的，我們正投入大量資源以協助塑造這樣的結果。儘管如此，我們的短期預測仍比正常時期更容易受到波動影響。

To wrap up, our first quarter results underscore the ongoing strength, diversification and relevance of our scaled, two-sided global platform. We extended our leadership position in digital payments and delivered some of the best performance in our history on both an absolute and relative basis. And our strong trends across the business reflect enduring secular trends and continued business momentum.

總結來說，我們第一季的結果凸顯了我們具規模、雙邊的全球平台持續展現的強勁、多元化與重要性。我們鞏固了在數位支付領域的領導地位，並在絕對與相對表現上交出我們歷史上最出色的成績之一。而我們在整體業務上的強勁趨勢，反映了持久的結構性趨勢與持續的業務動能。

We're continuing to invest aggressively to drive accelerated growth in a post-pandemic world and capture the significant opportunity ahead. At the same time, our meaningful scale enables us to realize additional efficiencies, expand our operating margin and support significant free cash flow generation.

我們將持續積極投資，以在後疫情時代推動加速成長並掌握前方的重大機會。同時，我們可觀的規模使我們能實現額外效率、擴大營業利益率，並支撐可觀的自由現金流產生。

With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for questions.

接下來我把時間交給接線員進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Darrin Peller of Wolfe Research.

（接線員指示）您的第一個問題來自Wolfe Research的Darrin Peller。

Great results here. When we look at coming out of last year's record NNAs, we thought 50 million was a good number, and now you're raising that. If you could just touch on the dynamics you're seeing around the net new actives, what's driving the upside even after these kinds of record rates? And especially as we go into reopening in the market, can you just talk through the activity and the churn levels? And then maybe on the other side of the funnel, if you could touch on the incremental users coming on, even as the world reopens, is it partnerships like Alibaba you mentioned today or other kinds of international? Or just really what's the big driving force for that confidence?

這次的結果非常出色。回顧去年創紀錄的淨新增活躍帳戶（NNA），我們原本認為5,000萬是個不錯的數字，而你們現在又上調了。如果可以的話，能否談談你們在淨新增活躍帳戶方面看到的動態？即使在這種創紀錄的增速之後，是什麼在推動上行？尤其當市場進入重新開放，你能否說明一下活躍度與流失（churn）水準？另外在漏斗的另一端，若你能談談即使世界重新開放，仍持續加入的增量用戶，是像你今天提到的阿里巴巴那樣的合作夥伴，或其他類型的國際合作？或者真正讓你們有信心的最大驅動力是什麼？

I think maybe I'll start with the answer to that, Darrin, and then see if John wants to supplement anything. We had a strong Q1. It's up 46% ex the onetime Honey adds that we had last year. Ended the quarter with 31 million merchants, 392 million active accounts. We're really getting to a scale right now, Darrin, that has a huge network effect on it.

我想我先回答這個問題，Darrin，然後看看John是否要補充。我們第一季表現強勁。若排除去年一次性的Honey新增，仍成長46%。本季末我們有3,100萬名商戶、3.92億個活躍帳戶。Darrin，我們現在的規模已經達到一個具有巨大網路效應的程度。

We brought on in Q1, 2 new customers every second throughout the quarter. We brought on a new merchant every 5 seconds throughout the quarter. We brought in somewhere between 1.4 million, 1.5 million new merchants. That was up over 100% from a year ago.

在第一季整個季度期間，我們每秒新增2位新客戶。我們每5秒新增1位新商戶。我們新增了約140萬到150萬名新商戶。這比一年前成長超過100%。

And I think of the drivers, it's predominantly PayPal's, predominantly still in our core markets, still seeing great growth from Venmo. But my view on net new actives is I say without being too aggressive here, look, I think we have a lot of opportunity yet here. We have a lot of expansion into international markets. I think our marketing programs are really beginning to deliver excellent results. I think we're just scratching the surface there.

至於驅動因素，我認為主要是PayPal的帶動，且仍以我們的核心市場為主，同時也持續看到Venmo帶來的強勁成長。至於我對淨新增活躍帳戶的看法，我不想說得太激進，但我認為我們仍有很大的機會。我們在國際市場仍有很大的擴張空間。我認為我們的行銷計畫正開始交出非常出色的成果。我覺得我們在那方面才剛剛起步。

And when I think about what's going on inside the base, our engagement levels are going up substantially. I mean, you saw kind of our TPA grow by 7%. If you normalize for Honey, our TPA went up 8% in the quarter. But if you normalize for the huge amount of NNAs that John just talked about, because when you put on huge amounts of NNAs that John just talked about. Because when you put on huge amounts of NNAs, and they don't have the full year to do their full TPA, maybe a bunch came on this quarter and they had 1.5 months to do transactions, and we count them in that TPA, but if you normalize that to say the $37 million we used to be doing, then that TPA grew by 14% in the quarter. And that is really a result of our daily active users coming on.

而當我思考在我們既有用戶基礎內部正在發生的事情時，我們的互動參與度正在大幅提升。我的意思是，你看到我們的 TPA 成長了 7%。如果把 Honey 的影響正常化，我們本季的 TPA 成長了 8%。但如果再把 John 剛剛談到的大量 NNA 的影響正常化，因為當你新增了大量 NNA，而他們沒有完整的一年去貢獻其完整的 TPA——也許有一大批是在本季加入，他們只有 1.5 個月可以進行交易，而我們仍把他們計入 TPA——但如果你把它正常化，回到我們過去大約每季做的 3,700 萬美元水準，那麼本季 TPA 其實成長了 14%。而這確實是我們每日活躍用戶增加所帶來的結果。

Our daily active users were up 33% in Q1 across the base, but our new products and services right now are driving huge engagement levels. I'll just give you a couple of examples. Buy Now, Pay Later, I'm sure somebody will talk about it later because we have a lot of fun things to talk about. But 50% of the customers who have used Buy Now, Pay Later have repeated within 3 months. And 70% have repeated within 6 months. If you look at our in-store cohort now, they're driving an incremental 60 to 120 incremental transactions. And we talked about this last call, and it's holding true. About half of our crypto users open their app every single day. And so we're clearly beginning to see both at the top of the funnel, the potential for increases into the top of the funnel and really narrowing the bottom of the funnel, which is why I'm bullish on -- actually our NNA trends.

我們的每日活躍用戶在 Q1 於整體用戶基礎中成長了 33%，而我們目前的新產品與服務正在帶動極高的互動參與度。我舉幾個例子。先買後付（Buy Now, Pay Later），我相信稍後會有人談到，因為我們有很多有趣的事情可以分享。但使用過先買後付的客戶中，有 50% 在 3 個月內再次使用；有 70% 在 6 個月內再次使用。若看我們現在的店內（in-store）同群（cohort），他們帶來額外 60 到 120 筆增量交易。我們在上次電話會議談過，現在仍然成立。大約一半的加密貨幣用戶每天都會打開 App。因此我們顯然開始看到：在漏斗頂端有機會提升流入，同時也在收窄漏斗底端——這也是我對我們的 NNA 趨勢看多的原因。

The one thing I'd point out, Darrin, that I think is really important is the cadence of those NNAs. Q1 was a good solid quarter for us. Q2 is always going to be the lowest quarter of the year because we did 21.4 million net new actives last year. Even though our churn rates are down, and that was one of the best cohorts we ever activated, it puts incremental pressure at the bottom of the funnel for Q2. And then we see really increasing amounts of NNAs as we go through the year. So in general, really strong on the NNA front, really strong on the engagement front. And hopefully, more of that to come.

Darrin，我想指出一點我認為非常重要的事：這些 NNA 的節奏。Q1 對我們來說是個穩健的季度。Q2 一直會是全年最低的季度，因為去年我們新增了 2,140 萬名淨新增活躍用戶。即使我們的流失率下降，而且那也是我們啟動過最好的同群之一，它仍會在 Q2 對漏斗底端帶來額外壓力。接著我們看到，隨著年度推進，NNA 會逐步增加。總體而言，NNA 面向非常強勁，互動參與度面向也非常強勁。希望接下來還會有更多好消息。

Yes. I'll just add real quickly, Darrin. Like if you go back to a year ago or maybe 3 quarters ago, when you saw the record amount of net new actives that came in the second quarter, I mean I think that -- I mean, candidly probably surprised everybody, right? That was an enormous number.

是的。我很快補充一下，Darrin。像如果你回到一年前或大概三個季度前，當你看到第二季創紀錄的淨新增活躍用戶數時，我的意思是，我想那——坦白說大概讓所有人都很意外，對吧？那是一個非常龐大的數字。

And then you think about it sort of like, "Okay, well, now what?" Because we've got to make sure that we're engaging these customers and they're using us in all the ways that they can. And we -- even going back to that point in time, a year ago, we knew that the second quarter this year was going to be our toughest comp from a net new active perspective.

然後你會想，「好，那接下來呢？」因為我們必須確保能讓這些客戶保持互動，並以所有可能的方式使用我們。而我們——即使回到一年前那個時間點——就已經知道，今年第二季在淨新增活躍用戶的比較基期（comp）上會是最艱難的。

Even as Dan said, despite the improvements we've made in reducing churn, there's still a lot of pressure there. And so Q2 is going to be sort of the low point for the year for us. And then we expect 3Q and 4Q to see strengthening acceleration there. But the thing that I will say that sort of gives us confidence in this, and we've talked about this for a period of time, but we've consistently said that these have been our most engaged cohorts that we've ever seen.

即使如 Dan 所說，儘管我們在降低流失方面做了改善，壓力仍然很大。因此對我們而言，Q2 會是全年低點。接著我們預期在 3Q 與 4Q 會看到那方面的走強與加速。不過我想說的是，讓我們對此有信心的一點——我們也談了一段時間——是我們一直表示，這些是我們見過互動程度最高的同群。

And we're continuing to see those trends. They haven't waned like what you might expect related to people returning to the physical world. And so that gives us the conviction around raising this and really what it bodes for the rest of our business as well.

而我們持續看到這些趨勢，並沒有像你可能預期的那樣，因為人們回到實體世界而減弱。因此這也讓我們更有把握去上調（指引），以及它對我們其餘業務所代表的意義。

Our next question will come from Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自 JPMorgan 的 Tien-Tsin Huang。

Really impressive results on many fronts. I wanted to ask on the first quarter revenue. So you beat your revenue guidance, looks like, by 3 percentage points. I think that's the widest margin of upside we've seen in a few quarters. So I'm curious, what surprised you? Can you rank for us what surprised you? What drove the upside? And how does it change your revenue outlook for the year? It sounds like it's enough to offset the bigger eBay drag, but would love it if you could rank it for us maybe.

在許多面向上都是非常令人印象深刻的結果。我想問第一季營收。看起來你們的營收優於指引約 3 個百分點。我想這是我們在幾個季度以來看到最大幅度的超預期。所以我很好奇，是什麼讓你們感到意外？你們能否幫我們排序一下哪些是意外、哪些驅動了超預期？以及這如何改變你們對全年營收的展望？聽起來這足以抵消更大的 eBay 拖累，但如果可以的話，希望你們能幫我們做個排序。

Yes. Tien-Tsin, do you want me to start to -- Dan?

好的。Tien-Tsin，你希望我先開始——Dan？

Yes.

是的。

So I think starting with the full year, you're right. The momentum that we're seeing in the business really has allowed us to overcome the headwinds that we're seeing from a more accelerated migration for eBay to its managed payments.

所以我想先從全年來看，你說得沒錯。我們在業務上看到的動能，確實讓我們得以克服因 eBay 更加速轉向其管理式支付（managed payments）所帶來的逆風。

To specifically address your question on Q1, there's actually a handful of things that, I think, performed differently than what we expected. Starting with January.

針對你關於 Q1 的問題，實際上有幾件事情的表現與我們原先預期不同。先從一月開始。

So there was an extended holiday shopping period. Like the first couple of weeks of January, we saw much stronger e-commerce activity than normal. On sort of the other book end, getting to March, we saw a resumption in travel that happened quicker than -- more quickly than what we had estimated. And then sort of in between that, you've got the stimulus. And I don't want to overstate the effect of stimulus because we had assumed some of that in our forecast. I think it was pretty clear at that point in time that, that was going to happen.

當時假期購物季被延長了。像一月前兩週，我們看到電商活動比平常強很多。再看另一端到三月，我們看到旅遊的復甦比我們估計的更快。然後在這之間，還有刺激金。我不想誇大刺激金的影響，因為我們在預測中已經假設了一部分。我想在那個時間點很清楚，這件事會發生。

But I think fundamentally, if you step back and you think about these things that I described that maybe are more transitory, what has been I think a more permanent shift is what we're seeing around, call it, the displacement of cash. And you're just seeing more and more digital experiences that are replacing cash. So I'll give you one sort of silly example, Tien-Tsin, but last Saturday night, I went out to dinner. And a restaurant had reopened, I'm sitting inside. And when it gets time for me to get my check, I'm not handing off my credit card to the waiter for them to run and put it through the machine. They're printing a receipt with the QR code on it right there.

但我認為從根本上，如果你退一步看我所描述的這些可能較為短期的因素，更偏向永久性的轉變是我們看到的——可以稱之為——現金被取代（displacement of cash）。你會看到越來越多的數位體驗正在取代現金。我給你一個有點傻的例子，Tien-Tsin：上週六晚上我出去吃晚餐。有一家餐廳重新開業，我坐在室內。等到要結帳時，我不是把信用卡交給服務生讓他們拿去刷卡機刷，而是他們直接印出一張上面有 QR code 的收據。

That's a physical world experience that's happening digitally. And this is the transformation that is happening right in front of our eyes right now. We are on the threshold of this. And that's fundamentally, I think it's a small anecdote, but it's -- I think it's a good example of kind of what we're seeing in our business, where there's this convergence of online and off-line that is really benefiting our business.

這是一個在實體世界發生、但以數位方式完成的體驗。這就是此刻正在我們眼前發生的轉型。我們正站在這個門檻上。這從根本上來說——我知道這只是個小故事——但我認為它是個很好的例子，說明我們在業務中看到的情況：線上與線下的融合，正在真正地讓我們的業務受益。

I'll just add on to that, John, because I think that is the strength that we're seeing even in markets that are opening. If you think about, we did a 100-point raise in guidance for revenues, you had 200 incremental points of pressure from eBay. That's really, in effect, a 30-point raise on our core business. And that's because we are now seeing people living a digital life.

John，我也補充一下，因為我認為這正是我們即使在市場重新開放時仍看到的強勁之處。若你想想，我們把營收指引上調了 100 個基點，但來自 eBay 的壓力增加了 200 個基點。這實際上等同於我們核心業務上調了 300 個基點。這是因為我們現在看到人們正在過著數位生活。

And what used to be and for us as well, like 1 year, 1.5 years ago is there was a separate distinction between in-store or the physical world and e-commerce in the online world. And now what we're seeing is that it's just a digital world. Even as economies open, more and more of those payments are moving to digital.

而過去——對我們也是——像 1 年或 1.5 年前，店內或實體世界與線上電商世界之間還有明確區隔。現在我們看到的是：這就是一個數位世界。即使經濟重啟，越來越多的支付也正在轉向數位化。

Think about it, like Uber would be a good example. As more and more rides start there, they're moving into a physical environment, but it's all done through a digital platform and digital payments. And so clearly, that is something that we see as a sustaining and growing trend going forward.

想想看，Uber 就是一個很好的例子。隨著越來越多的行程回來，它們發生在實體環境中，但全部都是透過數位平台與數位支付完成。因此很明顯，這是我們認為未來會持續並成長的趨勢。

And I think John mentioned cash is definitely being replaced. There's just a study done a week or 2 ago by one of the major networks that said anywhere between 60% to 70% of consumers are going to use cash less frequently, and that's moving to digital. It's moving to digital forms of payment, and it's moving to P2P. And by the way, when it moves to digital, it's moving predominantly to debit, which obviously is also great from a funding perspective on that.

而且我認為 John 提到現金確實正在被取代。就在一到兩週前，其中一家主要網路做了一項研究指出，大約有 60% 到 70% 的消費者將會更少使用現金，而這正轉向數位化。它正在轉向數位支付形式，也正在轉向 P2P。順帶一提，當它轉向數位時，主要是轉向簽帳卡（debit），這從資金來源的角度來看顯然也非常有利。

And so I think we have this portfolio of services right now, whether it be Zettle or Braintree or QR codes or just what's happening in the physical world that complements now what's happening in the online world with our more traditional products. And that's kind of a 1-, 2-punch that I don't think any of us really understood the extent of or the depth of the transition to a digital economy.

因此我認為我們目前擁有這樣一個服務組合，不論是 Zettle、Braintree、QR code，或是實體世界正在發生、並與線上世界中我們較傳統產品所發生的事情相互補足的各種變化。這有點像一記「一、二連擊」，而我想我們任何人其實都沒有真正理解向數位經濟轉型的廣度或深度會到什麼程度。

And just if I can add one more thing. For those reasons that Dan mentioned, it's also why we are investing as heavily as we are.

另外如果我可以再補充一點。基於 Dan 提到的那些原因，這也是為什麼我們投入如此大的資源進行投資。

At no point in time in our 6 years as a public company, have we invested as heavily as we are right now because we want to capitalize on these secular tailwinds, and we think it's really important. And that's why you see us not rolling through the entirety of that in terms of our EPS guidance because we think it's more important to invest right now, and that is clearly our bias. And fortunately for us, we're able to do that while still expanding our operating margin in terms of our guidance 100 basis points for the year.

在我們作為上市公司這 6 年來，從來沒有任何時候像現在這樣大幅投資，因為我們希望把握這些長期結構性順風，我們認為這非常重要。這也是為什麼你會看到我們在 EPS 指引上沒有把這些投資的全部效益都反映進去，因為我們認為此刻投資更重要，而這顯然是我們的取向。幸運的是，我們在這麼做的同時，仍能在指引中將全年營業利益率擴張 100 個基點。

Your next question will come from Lisa Ellis from MoffetNathanson.

下一個問題將由 MoffetNathanson 的 Lisa Ellis 提問。

I had a follow-up on your comments, Dan, on digital currencies and their ability to potentially drive financial inclusion globally. As you're engaging with governments around the world that are experimenting with CBDCs, how are they thinking about the role of the private sector? And specifically, what role or roles could you see PayPal plain? Meaning, more broadly, how should we think about how CBDCs could impact your business?

我想追問一下你剛才的評論，Dan，關於數位貨幣及其可能在全球推動金融普惠的能力。當你們與世界各國正在試驗 CBDC 的政府互動時，他們如何看待民間部門的角色？更具體地說，你認為 PayPal 可能扮演哪些角色？也就是說，更廣泛而言，我們應該如何思考 CBDC 可能對你們業務的影響？

Yes. So we have had quite a number of conversations here in the U.S. and really across the world with the leaders of those regulatory bodies and some of the key players in government. I won't kind of obviously talk about the specifics of any of our conversations that we've had with them. What I would say is it is a conversation that is very much one of learning from each other, understanding the capabilities that each of us have, what some of the concerns that some of the central banks might have or governments, what some of the benefits of a platform like PayPal could do in various forms of how CBDCs could be issued.

是的。我們在美國以及全球各地，已經與這些監管機構的領導者以及政府中的一些關鍵人士進行了相當多的對話。我當然不會談及我們與他們對話的任何細節。我想說的是，這些對話非常像是彼此學習的過程：理解彼此具備的能力、一些央行或政府可能有的疑慮，以及像 PayPal 這樣的平台在 CBDC 可能以各種形式發行時，能帶來哪些好處。

And I believe based on all my conversations that each country is going to go at different speeds. We're going to have different regulatory oversight in it. But there isn't one country around the world in which we've engaged in, where I don't think that they're envisioning a future that isn't one of a digitized Fiat currency. I think, obviously, there's a lot of synergy with digital wallets. There's a lot of interesting things as you think about next-generation technology that can add utility to payments, that can take down perhaps cost, the elimination of unnecessary intermediaries and certainly can speed the time in which somebody can access their money.

而且根據我所有的對話，我相信每個國家推進的速度都會不同，監管監督也會有所差異。但在我們接觸過的全球任何一個國家，我都不認為他們所想像的未來會不是「法定貨幣數位化」的未來。我認為這與數位錢包顯然有很大的協同效應。當你思考能為支付增加效用的下一代技術時，也有很多有趣的可能性：或許能降低成本、消除不必要的中介，並且確實能加快人們取得資金的時間。

So we've got a tremendous amount of really great results going on tactically with our cryptocurrency efforts right now. And we're excited about those. We're investing in those. But this whole idea around establishing a digital currency and blockchain business unit inside PayPal is to think about what is the financial system going to start to move towards? And how can we be a shaper of that, a leader within that and not a reactor to how that's happening. And that -- those conversations have been -- have gone well beyond my expectations in terms of the openness of governments and central banks to think about new ways of managing and moving money through the system.

所以我們目前在加密貨幣方面的努力，在戰術層面已經取得了非常多、非常好的成果。我們對此感到興奮，也正在投入資源。但在 PayPal 內部成立數位貨幣與區塊鏈事業單位的整體構想，是要思考金融體系將開始朝什麼方向演進？以及我們如何能成為塑造者、成為其中的領導者，而不是對其發展被動反應。而且——這些對話在政府與央行願意以新的方式思考如何在體系中管理與移動資金方面，其開放程度遠超出我的預期。

Pretty exciting.

相當令人振奮。

It is actually, yes.

確實是的。

Next question will come from Sanjay Sakhrani of KBW.

下一個問題將由 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani 提問。

I had a question on the reopening trends seen thus far this year. And any discernible trends that you might have observed, like how it's affecting volume mix, funding mix and just overall engagement with the PayPal ecosystem?

我想問一下今年迄今為止所看到的重啟趨勢。以及你們是否觀察到任何可辨識的趨勢，例如它如何影響交易量組合、資金來源組合，以及整體上用戶與 PayPal 生態系的互動程度？

Sure, Sanjay. I'll start there and Dan may want to add a little bit. I think there's a number of things there that we're observing. I think building on your question around debit, that's certainly something that stands out. We see a shift in funding towards more debit versus credit, and that's across our broad portfolio of products, but a good example is even like Buy Now, Pay Later, where in the previous quarter, about 78% of that was funded with debit. That moved up to 82% in the most recent quarter.

好的，Sanjay。我先回答，Dan 也許會再補充一些。我認為我們觀察到幾件事。延續你關於簽帳卡（debit）的問題，這確實是特別突出的部分。我們看到資金來源正從信用卡轉向更多簽帳卡，這在我們廣泛的產品組合中都存在；一個很好的例子甚至是「先買後付」（Buy Now, Pay Later）：在上一季，其中約 78% 是以簽帳卡資金支付；在最近一季則上升到 82%。

And so clearly, we're seeing a shift there. And again, going back to an earlier answer, we believe some of that is the displacement of cash.

因此很明顯，我們在那裡看到了一個轉變。而且同樣回到先前的回答，我們相信其中一部分是現金被取代所致。

In terms of overall kind of trends that we're seeing around reopening, certainly, travel has picked back up. And that happened a little bit earlier than what we had anticipated. Among the verticals that sort of stand out, fashion still is one of the single largest growth verticals in terms of overall volume for us. But in terms of the highest year-over-year growth rates, still food and groceries, and incidentally, even in markets where you've seen some reopening. So again, it just -- it really supports what consumers have been telling the world in surveys for 12 months now.

就我們看到的整體重啟趨勢而言，旅遊確實回升了，而且發生得比我們預期稍早。在特別突出的垂直領域中，時尚仍然是我們整體交易量中成長最大的單一垂直領域之一。但就最高的年對年成長率而言，仍然是食品與雜貨；而且順帶一提，即使在一些已經出現重啟的市場也是如此。所以再一次，這確實支持了消費者在過去 12 個月的調查中一直告訴全世界的事情。

Now we're seeing it in behaviors. And so again, this sort of plays into a lot of the themes that we're talking about here in terms of this convergence of the physical world and online and the need to have these omni experiences for your customers. But those will be a couple of things that I would call out that we're seeing.

現在我們在行為上看到了它。因此再一次，這也呼應了我們在這裡談到的許多主題：實體世界與線上世界的融合，以及為你的客戶提供全通路體驗（omni experiences）的需求。不過以上是我會特別點出的幾個我們正在看到的現象。

Your next question will come from Colin Sebastian of Baird.

下一個問題將由 Baird 的 Colin Sebastian 提問。

How you're feeling at this point about the original full year revenue target for that business? And related to that, if you have any feedback on how crypto integration and business profiles are impacting how people are using Venmo? And if you could just remind us how the pipeline of other enhancements to the app will sequence over the course of the year.

你們目前對該業務原先設定的全年營收目標感受如何？以及相關地，你們是否有任何回饋，關於加密貨幣整合與商業檔案（business profiles）如何影響人們使用 Venmo 的方式？另外，也請提醒我們，今年內 App 其他強化功能的推出時程將如何依序展開。

Yes, sure. So first of all, Venmo had another really strong quarter. TPV, up 63%. It's off to a great start in Q2 as well.

好的，當然。首先，Venmo 又交出了一個非常強勁的季度。TPV 成長 63%。在第二季也有一個很好的開局。

One really interesting thing on that John and I were remarking on the other day, is if you look at the annualized TPV of Venmo right now, call it about $205 million, $210 billion of TPV. Think back when we went public, our TPV for the year was $285 billion. So you basically have another PayPal inside of PayPal when we went public a year ago. And there is such huge monetization opportunity on that.

有一件非常有趣的事，John 和我前幾天還在談：如果你看 Venmo 目前的年化 TPV，大約是 2,050 億到 2,100 億美元的 TPV。回想我們上市的時候，我們全年的 TPV 是 2,850 億美元。所以基本上，你在 PayPal 裡面又有了一個「當年上市時的 PayPal」，而且其中存在非常巨大的變現機會。

I think, obviously, we feel very confident in the $900 million, but that is scratching the surface of what Venmo can be. This is a huge base that's growing. And the great thing is that the team there is executing on all of their initiatives. Credit card, we knew is a great experience, but it's performing beyond our expectations, new sign-ups, transactions. That's what happens when you have a great value proposition consumer experience. Crypto launched at 1% ramp. It just went to 5% ramp. It will be 100% ramped by the end of this month, the end of May. And obviously, if you look at again surveys that have come out recently and you look at millennials, something like 74% of them anticipate that they're going to use crypto in the next year or 2 in some way.

我認為，顯然我們對 9 億美元非常有信心，但那只是觸及 Venmo 潛力的表面。這是一個正在成長的龐大基礎。更棒的是，那裡的團隊正在落實所有的計畫。信用卡我們知道是一個很棒的體驗，但其表現超出我們的預期——新申辦數、交易量。當你有一個很強的價值主張與消費者體驗時，就會發生這樣的事。加密貨幣以 1% 的覆蓋率（ramp）上線，剛提升到 5% 的覆蓋率；到本月底、也就是 5 月底，將提升到 100% 覆蓋。顯然，如果你再看近期出爐的調查並聚焦千禧世代，大約有 74% 的人預期在未來一到兩年會以某種方式使用加密貨幣。

Business profiles growing above plan. We're going to be introducing things like goods and services by our protection. That's a huge revenue generator on the PayPal P2P side. That same thing will be happening on the Venmo side.

商業檔案（business profiles）的成長高於計畫。我們將推出例如在我們的保障機制下提供「商品與服務」等功能。這在 PayPal 的 P2P 端是一個巨大的營收驅動因素。同樣的事情也會在 Venmo 端發生。

Pay with Venmo, which by the way, is very little of this year's $900 million. But that Pay with Venmo is going to be the majority of revenues as you look out several years from now. And so we're really excited about that rolling out. And eventually, Venmo is going to move down the same path that the PayPal super app digital wallet is going down. It's going to become a super app itself, putting in more and more capabilities and services around, again, shopping and basic consumer financial services and payments. It has international expansion in front of it.

使用「Pay with Venmo」付款；順帶一提，這在今年 9 億美元中占比其實很小。但展望未來幾年，「Pay with Venmo」將會成為營收的大宗。因此我們對其推廣上線感到非常興奮。最終，Venmo 也會走上與 PayPal 超級 App 數位錢包相同的路徑。它本身將成為一個超級 App，持續加入更多功能與服務，圍繞著（再次強調）購物、基本的消費者金融服務與支付。它也具備國際擴張的空間。

And there's just so much opportunity. I think we've all been bullish on the potential of Venmo. We are now beginning to see it realized and we just think that -- just want to keep investing in that because the opportunity is quite large.

而且機會非常多。我想我們一直都看好 Venmo 的潛力。現在我們開始看到這些潛力正在實現，我們也認為——我們就是想持續投入，因為機會相當龐大。

Our next question will come from David Togut of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

Good to see the strong growth engagement from Buy Now, Pay Later customers. Can you talk about your expectations for Buy Now, Pay Later for the balance of this year? More broadly, how you expect the most engaged Buy Now, Pay Later customers to engage in the PayPal ecosystem overall?

很高興看到「先買後付」（Buy Now, Pay Later）客戶帶來強勁的成長與互動參與。你們能談談對今年剩餘期間「先買後付」的預期嗎？更廣泛地說，你們預期互動最活躍的「先買後付」客戶，會如何在整體 PayPal 生態系中參與互動？

Yes, sure. I'll start, and then maybe John can go in. First of all, it's a great value proposition in the market. I think everybody clearly understands that and sees that. It's no incremental cost for a merchant to have Buy Now, Pay Later. It's just part of their take rate easy, integration. And by the way, PayPal is a trusted brand. So consumers see it, they recognize it, they have no problems taking part in that value proposition.

好的，當然。我先開始，之後也許 John 可以補充。首先，這在市場上是一個很棒的價值主張。我想大家都很清楚理解並看到了。對商戶而言，提供「先買後付」沒有額外成本；它只是他們費率（take rate）的一部分，整合也很容易。順帶一提，PayPal 是值得信賴的品牌，所以消費者看到它、認得它，參與這個價值主張完全沒有障礙。

And because we have now 392 million customers on the platform, we know them. We know their behaviors. We have higher approval rates and less defaults than what we are seeing out in the Buy Now, Pay Later space.

而且因為我們平台上現在有 3.92 億名客戶，我們了解他們。我們了解他們的行為。我們的核准率更高、違約更少，優於我們在「先買後付」市場上看到的情況。

Just to give you a sense of results in front of that. Over $2 billion of TPV globally since launch. Over $1 billion in the U.S. Over 14 million loans have been done, over 5 million unique customers. We have over 500,000 unique merchants, more -- hundreds of LE customers, as I mentioned, 30,000 upstream, and that's growing every single day.

讓我給你一些成果數據作為參考。自上線以來，全球 TPV 已超過 20 億美元；美國超過 10 億美元。已完成超過 1,400 萬筆貸款，超過 500 萬名不重複客戶。我們有超過 50 萬家不重複商戶，還有更多——如我提到的，數百家 LE 客戶、3 萬家 upstream，而且每天都在成長。

And one of the great things we're seeing with customers that are engaging with Buy Now, Pay Later is there's a 15% halo lift in TPV on the platform. And because of funding it with debit, debit's increasing, there's like a 16% reduction in our cost per transaction.

而我們在與「先買後付」互動的客戶身上看到的一個很棒的現象是：平台 TPV 有 15% 的光環效應提升（halo lift）。而且因為以簽帳卡（debit）作為資金來源，簽帳卡使用在增加，我們的單筆交易成本也降低了約 16%。

So it's a great proposition for merchants tons of conversations going on with all the leading merchants, big uptick with consumers, and we're going to expand into Australia by the end of Q2 and in much more of Europe by the end of the year.

所以這對商戶而言是很棒的方案；我們正與所有領先商戶進行大量對話；消費者端也大幅升溫。我們將在第二季末擴展到澳洲，並在年底前擴展到更多歐洲地區。

Thanks for all those great metrics. Just a quick follow-up on bottom of the funnel impact from the growth of Buy Now Pay Later.

謝謝你提供這些很棒的指標。我想快速追問一下：「先買後付」成長對漏斗底部（bottom of the funnel）的影響。

Yes. Well, again, it's a little bit early because we've launched all of these things in like the last 6 or 8 months or so. So given we look at 12-month actives. So -- but if you look at the repeat behavior and the increased engagement, that probably bodes pretty well for both TPA and churn reduction, especially given that this is now scaling quite -- this is meaningful scale even for a company of our size.

好的。嗯，再次強調，現在還稍早，因為我們大概是在過去 6 到 8 個月內才推出這些東西。因此我們是以 12 個月活躍用戶來觀察。不過——如果你看重複行為與互動提升，這大概對 TPA 與降低流失（churn reduction）都有不錯的指標意義，尤其考量到它現在正在擴張到相當——即使以我們這種規模的公司來看，也已是有意義的規模。

Your next question will come from Bryan Keane of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Bryan Keane。

I wanted to ask, John, on the impressive operating leverage, and we saw the raise of non-GAAP operating margins to -- I think it's about 100 basis points. So just thinking about what caused the increase in confidence there? And even though eBay is a bigger headwind and you're investing more, you're still increasing operating margins. So there's a lot of things going in the positive direction there. So I'd just like to get the details from you.

我想請教 John：關於令人印象深刻的營運槓桿，我們也看到你們把非 GAAP 營業利益率上調到——我想大約是 100 個基點。所以想了解是什麼讓你們對此更有信心？而且即使 eBay 的逆風更大、你們也投資更多，你們仍在提高營業利益率。這裡有很多正向因素在發生。我想請你提供更細的細節。

Happy to address that, Bryan. So again, I want to repeat the number because it's a whopping number. 38% incremental operating margins in the quarter. That's -- it really demonstrates the scalability of our platform, particularly when you think about the level of investment that we've had internally, and you can look at some of the year-over-year comps in our expense line items and get an idea of that.

很樂意回應，Bryan。再次強調，我想重複這個數字，因為它非常驚人：本季增量營業利益率（incremental operating margins）為 38%。這——確實展現了我們平台的可擴展性，特別是當你考量到我們內部的投資水準時；你也可以看看我們費用各項目年對年比較，大概就能理解。

But I think there's a number of different areas, but a couple that obviously stand out are the transaction-related operating expenses of transaction expense and transaction loss. To have record lows in both those, again, like the improvements that we've made in our risk capabilities to drive down transaction losses has just been tremendous. And we start talking about this probably 5 or 6 quarters ago. And look, I don't know if we're going to come in at 10 basis points every quarter. I certainly would hope so. But that is a performance that was really hard to imagine a couple of years ago. But the improvements there that we've made in terms of the capabilities are definitely sustainable.

我認為有幾個不同面向，但其中有兩個特別突出：與交易相關的營運費用，也就是交易費用（transaction expense）與交易損失（transaction loss）。這兩項都創下歷史新低；再次強調，我們在風險能力上的改善、用以降低交易損失，成效非常顯著。我們大概在 5 或 6 個季度前就開始談這件事。坦白說，我不知道我們是否能每一季都改善 10 個基點；我當然希望如此。但這樣的表現，在幾年前真的很難想像。不過，我們在能力面所做的改善，絕對是可持續的。

On transaction expense, look, I think you can pick at any one part of our P&L. And like -- take rate as an example. We saw declines there. Some of that's related to mix, like we're obviously doing, as an example, more bill payment right now, which carries a lower take rate. Well, at the same time, it carries a lower transaction expense. And so we've always focused on that margin between the 2. And again, to have a margin, a transaction margin approaching 60% this quarter, we're really pleased about it.

至於交易費用，你看我們損益表（P&L）的任何一個部分都可以切入。以費率（take rate）為例，我們看到它下滑；其中一部分與組合（mix）有關，例如我們現在做更多帳單支付（bill payment），其費率較低。但同時，它的交易費用也較低。所以我們一直聚焦在兩者之間的利差。再者，本季交易毛利率（transaction margin）接近 60%，我們對此非常滿意。

And so the obvious question is where does that level out over time? Does it go down from 80 basis points, does it go up from 80 basis points. It's tough to tell, but I certainly don't think that we're going to see levels that we saw pre-pandemic. There may be some inflation. But I think all of the mix changes in our business and what we're seeing around the pull forward of e-commerce, we would expect transaction expense to remain at lower levels pre-pandemic, which, again, gives us the just amazing leverage that we have on this platform.

因此很自然的問題是：隨著時間推移，這會在什麼水準趨於穩定？會從 80 個基點往下，還是從 80 個基點往上？很難判斷，但我確實不認為我們會回到疫情前看到的那些水準。可能會有一些通膨影響。但我認為，基於我們業務中的各種組合變化，以及我們看到電商需求提前釋放（pull forward）的情況，我們預期交易費用將維持在低於疫情前的水準；而這也再次帶來我們在這個平台上所擁有的、非常驚人的槓桿效益。

That was the last question for the call today. I will now pass the call back to Dan for closing remarks.

以上是今天電話會議的最後一個問題。我現在把電話交回 Dan 作結語。

Yes. Thanks so much. Thanks you everybody, for all of your questions, and thank you for the time you spent with us today. I hope that all of you and your families are safe and healthy. We look forward to not just speaking to all of you soon, but hopefully seeing all of you soon as well. So again, thank you for your time. Take care and goodbye.

好的。非常感謝。也謝謝各位提出的所有問題，並感謝大家今天撥冗與我們交流。我希望各位以及你們的家人都平安健康。我們期待不只是很快再與各位通話，也希望能很快與各位見面。再次感謝各位的時間。保重，再見。