PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Gabriel. I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to PayPal's Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. Ms. Gabrielle Rabinovitch, you may begin.

各位下午好。我叫 Gabriel。今天我將擔任本次電話會議的接線員。此刻，我謹代表公司歡迎各位參加 PayPal 2020 年第三季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）謝謝。Gabrielle Rabinovitch 女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Gabriel. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. Welcome to PayPal's earnings conference call for the third quarter of 2020. Joining me today on the call are Dan Schulman, our President and CEO; and John Rainey, our Chief Financial Officer and EVP, Global Customer Operations. We're providing a slide presentation to accompany our commentary. This conference call is also being webcast, and both the presentation and call are available on the Investor Relations section of our website.

謝謝你，Gabriel。各位下午好，感謝各位加入我們。歡迎參加 PayPal 2020 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：我們的總裁兼執行長 Dan Schulman；以及我們的財務長暨全球客戶營運執行副總裁 John Rainey。我們提供投影片簡報以配合我們的說明。本次電話會議亦同步網路直播，簡報與電話會議內容皆可於我們網站的投資人關係專區取得。

In discussing our company's performance, we'll refer to some non-GAAP measures. You can find the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the presentation accompanying this conference call.

在討論公司表現時，我們將提及部分非 GAAP 指標。您可在隨本次電話會議提供的簡報中，找到這些非 GAAP 指標與最直接可比之 GAAP 指標的調節表。

Management will make forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations, forecasts and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. These statements include our guidance for the fourth quarter and full year, the impact of our acquisitions and our outlook for 2021. Our actual results may differ materially from these statements. You can find more information about risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our results in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC and available on the Investor Relations section of our website. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. All information in this presentation is as of today's date, November 2, 2020. We expressly disclaim any obligation to update this information.

管理層將發表前瞻性陳述，該等陳述係基於我們目前的預期、預測與假設，並涉及風險與不確定性。這些陳述包括我們對第四季與全年之指引、併購案的影響，以及我們對 2021 年的展望。我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述存在重大差異。關於可能影響我們結果的風險、不確定性及其他因素之更多資訊，請參閱我們最近一期向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的 Form 10-K 年報與 Form 10-Q 季報，並可於我們網站的投資人關係專區取得。您不應過度依賴任何前瞻性陳述。本簡報中所有資訊截至今日（2020 年 11 月 2 日）。我們明確聲明不負有更新本資訊之任何義務。

With that, let me turn the call over to Dan.

接下來，讓我把電話交給 Dan。

Thanks, Gabrielle, and thanks, everyone, for joining us on today's call. I hope that all of you are safe and well.

謝謝你，Gabrielle，也謝謝各位參加今天的電話會議。希望各位都平安健康。

I'm pleased to say that PayPal had a very strong quarter across all of our key operating and financial metrics. Our performance is particularly noteworthy given the macro environment. We are battling a pandemic that shows no signs of slowing down. Economies around the world are still quite fragile, and the next 6 to 12 months will be defined by the timing and amount of additional fiscal stimulus and progress towards a widespread and effective vaccine. And obviously, we sit here on the eve of one of the most important elections in our country's history, and I hope that all of you who are U.S. citizens have already voted or will tomorrow.

我很高興地表示，PayPal 本季在所有關鍵營運與財務指標上都表現非常強勁。考量到總體環境，我們的表現尤其值得注意。我們正與一場看不到減緩跡象的疫情對抗。全球各地的經濟仍相當脆弱，未來 6 到 12 個月將取決於額外財政刺激措施的時點與規模，以及廣泛且有效疫苗的研發進展。當然，我們也正處於我國歷史上最重要選舉之一的前夕，我希望所有美國公民都已經投票，或將於明天投票。

This is the landscape we face as we go into the last quarter of 2020. At the same time, PayPal is at an exciting and meaningful inflection point in our history. Our mission has never been more important. The pandemic has brought focus to the stark reality that billions of people across the world are struggling to get by. In fact, in the past 9 months, over 100 million incremental adults moved into extreme poverty. The current financial system is just not working for most people. It's inefficient and expensive for the underserved.

這就是我們在邁入 2020 年最後一季時所面對的局勢。同時，PayPal 也正處於公司歷史上一個令人振奮且意義重大的轉折點。我們的使命從未如此重要。疫情讓人們更聚焦於一個嚴峻的現實：全球有數十億人正艱難度日。事實上，在過去 9 個月中，新增超過 1 億名成年人陷入極端貧困。現行金融體系對大多數人而言並未發揮作用；對服務不足的族群而言，它效率低且成本高。

Today's environment demands new ways of thinking about our economic system. Emerging technologies, combined with mobile phones and financial platforms like PayPal, can drive a future of inclusion and financial health. PayPal is in a strong position to help shape a future where everyone, not just the affluent, can participate in the new digital economy.

當前環境要求我們以新的方式思考經濟體系。新興科技結合行動電話與像 PayPal 這樣的金融平台，能推動一個更具包容性與財務健康的未來。PayPal 具備優勢，能協助塑造一個人人（而不僅是富裕族群）都能參與新數位經濟的未來。

As the use of cash continues to decline, new and innovative financial technologies are rising. For example, central banks around the world are seriously exploring or even trialing forms of retail digital currencies that they issue directly. And it's also clear that digital wallets are a natural complement to all forms of digital currencies. These trends create an opportunity for us to work with central banks and regulators to shape a modern and inclusive financial system built on more efficient digital infrastructure designed for the future.

隨著現金使用持續下降，新的創新金融科技正在崛起。例如，全球各地的中央銀行正嚴肅地探索，甚至試行由其直接發行的零售型數位貨幣形式。同時也很明顯，數位錢包是各種數位貨幣的自然互補。這些趨勢為我們創造機會，能與中央銀行及監管機構合作，塑造一個以更高效率的數位基礎設施為基礎、面向未來且更具包容性的現代金融體系。

The digitization of the global economy, combined with the rise of digital wallets, will drive our growth over the next decade. Our scale, 2-sided network, trusted brand, our strong relationships with regulators around the world and our AI and data modeling capabilities can all be leveraged to ensure our PayPal and Venmo apps are essential parts of our customers' daily lives. We still have a lot to do to achieve that vision, but let me be clear. We are investing to create one of the most compelling and expansive digital wallets in the world, and you can see this beginning to play out in our strong Q3 results.

全球經濟的數位化，加上數位錢包的崛起，將推動我們未來十年的成長。我們的規模、雙邊網路、值得信賴的品牌、與全球監管機構的強健關係，以及我們的 AI 與資料建模能力，都可被運用來確保 PayPal 與 Venmo App 成為客戶日常生活中不可或缺的一部分。要達成該願景我們仍有許多工作要做，但我要說清楚：我們正在投資打造全球最具吸引力且最廣泛的數位錢包之一，而您已可從我們強勁的 2020 年第三季成果中看到這一點開始展現。

In Q3, our total payment volume grew by a record 36% on an FX-neutral basis to $247 billion, an annual run rate just shy of $1 trillion. Even more impressive is the growth of our volumes, excluding eBay, which grew 38%, eclipsing any previous record. And in early October, we hit our all-time highest TPV day, outperforming any previous day in our history. These record results are happening even as eBay moves their base to their managed payments platform. eBay is now just 7% of our total volumes and will likely be between 5% to 6% by the end of the year.

在第三季，我們的總支付交易量（TPV）以匯率中性（FX-neutral）基礎計算創紀錄成長 36%，達 2,470 億美元，年化運行率接近 1 兆美元。更令人印象深刻的是，排除 eBay 後的交易量成長 38%，超越以往任何紀錄。且在 10 月初，我們創下史上最高 TPV 單日，表現優於公司歷史上任何一天。即使 eBay 正將其用戶基礎轉移至其管理式支付平台，這些紀錄仍在發生。eBay 目前僅占我們總交易量的 7%，到年底可能降至 5% 至 6%。

Our transactions in the quarter were just over 4 billion, growing 30% year-over-year. This is the first time we have processed over 4 billion transactions in a quarter. And it's worth noting that our core PayPal daily active accounts increased 32% versus a year ago, consistent with last quarter. We added 15.2 million net new actives in Q3, our second highest quarter for organic customer acquisitions after last quarter's 21.3 million NNAs. We added over 1.5 million new merchants in the quarter, over 2x our pre-COVID rate, and we now have 28 million merchants on our platform. We ended Q3 with 361 million active accounts, and we remain on track to end the year with a record 70 million NNAs.

本季交易筆數略高於 40 億筆，年增 30%。這是我們首次在單一季度處理超過 40 億筆交易。值得注意的是，我們核心 PayPal 的日活躍帳戶（daily active accounts）較去年同期增加 32%，與上季一致。第三季我們新增 1,520 萬個淨新增活躍帳戶（NNA），為有機客戶獲取的第二高季度，僅次於上季的 2,130 萬個 NNA。本季我們新增超過 150 萬名新商戶，為 COVID 之前速度的 2 倍以上，目前平台商戶數已達 2,800 萬。第三季末我們的活躍帳戶達 3.61 億個，且我們仍按計畫在年底以創紀錄的 7,000 萬個 NNA 作結。

This influx of new customers and record transactions drove strong financial results. Our revenues grew by 25.4% on an FXN basis to $5.46 billion. We grew our non-GAAP EPS by 41% to $1.07 even with incremental investments into our sales, marketing, product and engineering teams. In the quarter, our operating margin grew by 377 basis points from a year ago.

新客戶的大量湧入與創紀錄的交易量帶動了強勁的財務成果。我們的營收以匯率中性（FXN）基礎計算成長 25.4%，達 54.6 億美元。即使我們對銷售、行銷、產品與工程團隊進行額外投資，非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）仍成長 41% 至 1.07 美元。本季營業利益率較去年同期提升 377 個基點。

I'd like to detail some of our investments and how we see them shaping our future. And let me start with Venmo. Venmo had a very strong Q3 with 65 million users, driving $44.3 billion in TPV, up 61% year-over-year. Venmo's growth continues to exceed our expectations, and we are forecasting revenue for Venmo to approach $900 million in 2021, driven by investments in new capabilities. As Venmo's revenue base diversifies and scales, its transaction margin continues to improve, and we now expect Venmo to also make a positive contribution to our transaction margin dollars in 2021. By Q1, the Venmo Checkout experience will mirror the ease and simplicity of a PayPal-branded transaction. We anticipate a meaningful increase in merchant transactions with some of the world's largest retailers and marketplaces incorporating Venmo as a payment option at checkout, both online and offline as our QR codes are integrated into physical retail.

我想進一步說明我們的一些投資，以及我們如何看待它們塑造未來。先從 Venmo 談起。Venmo 在第三季表現非常強勁，擁有 6,500 萬名用戶，推動 TPV 達 443 億美元，年增 61%。Venmo 的成長持續超出我們預期，我們預估 2021 年 Venmo 的營收將接近 9 億美元，主要由新功能投資所驅動。隨著 Venmo 的營收基礎多元化並擴大規模，其交易毛利率（transaction margin）持續改善，我們現在也預期 Venmo 將在 2021 年對我們的交易毛利（transaction margin dollars）做出正向貢獻。到第一季，Venmo Checkout 的體驗將與 PayPal 品牌交易同樣輕鬆簡便。我們預期，隨著全球一些最大零售商與市集在結帳時（線上與線下）納入 Venmo 作為支付選項，且我們的 QR code 整合至實體零售場景，商戶交易量將顯著增加。

The Venmo credit card will be fully rolled out in Q1. I think it is the best credit card in the market. It is a true extension of the Venmo app and fully linked into its capabilities. It is the first to have a personalized QR code embossed on the card as well as contactless chip so that transactions can be split right at the table and reflect instantaneously on your Venmo feed. Our cash back rewards are amongst the most generous in the industry and automatically calculate your top spend categories every month to apply the appropriate cash back percentages. I would encourage all of you to try it as soon as you can because it is truly a best-in-class experience.

Venmo 信用卡將於第一季全面推出。我認為它是市場上最好的信用卡。它是 Venmo App 的真正延伸，並與其功能完全連結。它是第一張在卡片上壓印個人化 QR code，並配備感應式晶片的卡，讓交易可在餐桌旁直接分攤，並即時反映在你的 Venmo 動態中。我們的現金回饋獎勵是業界最慷慨之一，並會每月自動計算你最高的消費類別，以套用相對應的現金回饋比例。我鼓勵各位在方便時盡快試用，因為這確實是一流的使用體驗。

Over the next year, both the Venmo and PayPal apps will undergo a fundamental transformation intended to dramatically increase their functionality and drive engagement. Our goal is to provide our customers with a comprehensive set of services and tools to manage their financial lives as well as enhance their ability to shop both online and offline. This expanded suite of services will include enhanced direct deposit and check cashing; budget and savings tools; bill pay; investment alternatives including crypto; subscription management; buy now, pay later optionality; and all of Honey's shopping tools from wish lists, price monitoring, deals, coupons and rewards.

在未來一年內，Venmo 與 PayPal 兩款 App 都將進行根本性的轉型，旨在大幅提升其功能並帶動使用者互動。我們的目標是為客戶提供一套完整的服務與工具，以管理其財務生活，同時提升其線上與線下購物能力。這套擴增的服務組合將包括：強化的直接入帳與支票兌現；預算與儲蓄工具；帳單支付；包含加密貨幣在內的投資替代方案；訂閱管理；先買後付（Buy Now, Pay Later）選項；以及 Honey 的所有購物工具，包括願望清單、價格監控、優惠、折價券與回饋。

An important enabler of engagement is our comprehensive push into the physical world. Our consumers, merchants and regulators all believe that PayPal plays a crucial role in allowing safe, digital and contactless payments. Our goal is to be the most ubiquitous payment capability in the offline market, through a combination of QR codes, contactless cards, NFC inside our mobile apps as well as our embedded PayPal Wallet experiences inside Google Pay and Samsung Pay among others.

推動互動的一項重要促成因素，是我們全面進軍實體世界。我們的消費者、商戶與監管機構都相信，PayPal 在促成安全、數位化與非接觸式支付方面扮演關鍵角色。我們的目標是透過 QR Code、感應式卡片、在行動 App 內建的 NFC，以及嵌入於 Google Pay、Samsung Pay 等平台中的 PayPal Wallet 錢包體驗等多種方式，成為線下市場最無所不在的支付能力。

As I mentioned, Honey's shopping tools, coupons and rewards will be integrated into our omni checkout solutions, assuring the best deals for our consumers wherever they shop. And we will also enable merchants of all sizes to access anonymous demand data so that they can drive incremental sales and increase customer engagement across their multiple channels.

如我先前提到的，Honey 的購物工具、折價券與回饋將整合進我們的全通路結帳解決方案，確保消費者無論在哪裡購物都能獲得最佳優惠。同時，我們也將讓各種規模的商戶得以存取匿名化的需求數據，以便在多個通路中帶動增量銷售並提升客戶互動。

Our move into physical retail will no doubt be a multiyear journey, but we are already seeing strong early adoption of our QR code solution. We have 10 major retailers signed including CVS, Nike, Tumi, Bed Bath & Beyond and Samsonite, and we are in meaningful discussions with well over 100 large retailers. We have also signed 20 channel partners and point-of-sale providers from Verifone to Adyen, who are in the process of integrating our QR codes, with an additional 70 channel partners in deep negotiations. Just the signed deals alone enable our QR capabilities at millions of merchant locations. We anticipate ending the year with over 500,000 small and micro merchants accepting our QR codes.

我們進軍實體零售無疑將是一段為期多年的旅程，但我們已看到 QR Code 解決方案在早期就有強勁採用。我們已簽下 10 家大型零售商，包括 CVS、Nike、Tumi、Bed Bath & Beyond 與 Samsonite，並正與遠超過 100 家大型零售商進行實質性洽談。我們也已簽下 20 家通路合作夥伴與 POS（銷售點）供應商，從 Verifone 到 Adyen，這些夥伴正進行 QR Code 的整合；另有 70 家通路合作夥伴正進入深入談判。僅已簽署的合作案就能讓我們的 QR 能力覆蓋數百萬個商戶據點。我們預期年底前將有超過 500,000 家小型與微型商戶接受我們的 QR Code。

Finally, I'd like to discuss our recent announcement to increase the utility of cryptocurrencies as well as embrace new forms of central bank digital currencies. We are entering a new era of financial services where our wallets and all the services around them are moving from physical to digital. These include identity management, new forms of commerce and fully digital payments and financial services. As such, we recently announced that PayPal will allow account holders to buy, sell and hold cryptocurrencies, first, in the U.S. and then expanding to international markets and the Venmo platform in the first half of next year.

最後，我想談談我們近期的公告：提升加密貨幣的實用性，並擁抱各國央行數位貨幣（CBDC）的新形態。我們正進入金融服務的新時代，錢包以及圍繞錢包的所有服務正從實體走向數位化。這些服務包括身分管理、新型態商務，以及完全數位化的支付與金融服務。因此，我們近期宣布 PayPal 將允許帳戶持有人買入、賣出並持有加密貨幣，先在美國推出，並於明年上半年擴展至國際市場與 Venmo 平台。

Importantly, we are doing this in close partnership with regulators. As you saw, the New York Department of Financial Services granted PayPal a first-of-its-kind conditional bit license. With this foundation in place, we will rapidly move at the beginning of next year and allow consumers to use cryptocurrencies as a funding instrument to shop across all 28 million of our merchants. This solution will not involve any additional integrations, volatility risk or incremental transaction fees for either consumers or merchants and will fundamentally bolster the utility of cryptocurrencies. This is just the beginning of the opportunities we see as we work hand in hand with regulators to accept new forms of digital currencies.

重要的是，我們正與監管機構密切合作推動此事。如各位所見，紐約州金融服務署（New York Department of Financial Services）向 PayPal 核發了首創的「附條件」BitLicense（虛擬貨幣業務許可）。在此基礎到位後，我們將於明年年初迅速推進，讓消費者可使用加密貨幣作為資金來源，在我們全部 2,800 萬家商戶進行購物。此解決方案不需要任何額外整合，不會讓消費者或商戶承擔波動風險，也不會產生額外交易費用，並將從根本上強化加密貨幣的實用性。這只是開始；我們與監管機構攜手合作、接受新型態數位貨幣所看到的機會才正要展開。

We are at a moment in our history where all of our past efforts, our scale, brand reputation and regulatory relationships position us to play an expansive role in our customers' lives. There's obviously plenty in the near-term macroeconomic environment that makes us cautious as we look ahead to Q4 and 2021. At the same time, we see multiple tailwinds from the permanent shift towards a digital economy. Our revenue and EPS forecast for the years ahead are substantially higher than those we had developed just a year ago. And I've never been more enthusiastic about PayPal's role in shaping a new future.

我們正處於一個歷史時刻：過去所有努力、我們的規模、品牌聲譽與監管關係，使我們得以在客戶生活中扮演更廣泛的角色。顯然，短期宏觀經濟環境中仍有許多因素，使我們在展望第四季與 2021 年時保持審慎。同時，我們也看到數位經濟永久性轉移所帶來的多重順風。我們對未來數年的營收與每股盈餘（EPS）預測，顯著高於僅一年前所制定的預測。而我也從未像現在這樣，對 PayPal 在塑造新未來中的角色感到如此振奮。

I'd like to close by thanking our employees who continue to give so much time and energy to supporting our customers while doing their best to balance a blurring work and home life. Their dedication and commitment to PayPal and our customers is inspiring. And with that, I'll turn the call over to John. John?

最後，我想向我們的員工致謝。他們持續投入大量時間與精力支持客戶，同時也盡力在工作與家庭界線日益模糊的情況下取得平衡。他們對 PayPal 與客戶的奉獻與承諾令人敬佩。接下來，我把電話會議交給 John。John？

Thanks, Dan. I'd like to start by also thanking the entire PayPal team for their efforts to serve our customers and execute on our priorities. PayPal's third quarter was one of the strongest in our history. The sustained momentum in our business allowed us to outperform. Our results demonstrate the strength of our diversified platform, our global reach, the scalability of our business and our sustainable earnings power. Notably, we delivered these outstanding results against the backdrop of eBay's managed payments transition, continued weakness in the travel and events verticals and a decline in other value-added services revenue.

謝謝你，Dan。我也想先感謝整個 PayPal 團隊為服務客戶並落實我們優先事項所付出的努力。PayPal 第三季是我們歷史上最強勁的季度之一。業務動能的持續推進使我們得以超越預期。我們的成果展現了多元化平台的實力、全球覆蓋、業務可擴展性，以及可持續的獲利能力。值得注意的是，我們是在 eBay 受管支付（managed payments）轉換的背景下、旅遊與活動等垂直領域持續疲弱，以及其他加值服務營收下滑的情況下，仍交出這些出色成績。

Relative to our expectations going into the third quarter, eBay's payments intermediation proceeded faster than we had anticipated. In addition, the recovery in travel volumes was slower than our forecast. Travel and events volumes, which represented slightly more than 10% of our TPV last year, were down 40% year-over-year. While this is an improvement from the decline in the second quarter, it makes our overall volume growth even more remarkable.

相較於我們在進入第三季時的預期，eBay 的支付中介化（payments intermediation）進展比我們預想更快。此外，旅遊量的復甦也比我們預測更慢。旅遊與活動交易量去年占我們 TPV（總支付金額）略高於 10%，今年則年減 40%。雖然這較第二季的降幅有所改善，但也使我們整體交易量成長更顯得難能可貴。

Now I'll discuss more details of our financial performance for the third quarter. Revenue in the third quarter increased 25% on a currency-neutral basis to $5.46 billion. Transaction revenue grew 29% on a currency-neutral basis, representing 11 points of acceleration from the third quarter last year. This growth was primarily driven by strength across our core PayPal business, including strong cross-border growth. Notably, transaction revenue, excluding revenue from eBay, grew 31% in the third quarter, accelerating approximately 4 points from Q2 and approximately 7 points from Q3 last year. Other value-added services revenue declined 10% on a currency-neutral basis. Reduced interest income on customer balances from lower interest rates and less credit revenue contributed to this decline.

接下來我將更詳細說明第三季的財務表現。第三季營收以中性匯率計年增 25%，達 54.6 億美元。交易營收以中性匯率計成長 29%，較去年第三季加速 11 個百分點。此成長主要由核心 PayPal 業務的強勁表現所帶動，包括強勁的跨境成長。值得注意的是，第三季交易營收（不含來自 eBay 的營收）成長 31%，較第二季約加速 4 個百分點，較去年第三季約加速 7 個百分點。其他加值服務營收以中性匯率計下滑 10%。由於利率下降導致客戶餘額利息收入減少，以及信貸營收降低，促成了這一下滑。

Honey contributed approximately 1.5 points of growth to total revenue, which only partially offset the headwinds to other value-added services revenue. In the third quarter, transaction take rate was 2.06%, and total take rate was 2.21%. The 15 basis point decline in transaction take rate was driven ratably by the impact of 47% growth in P2P volumes; merchant volume mix, which includes incremental bill payment volumes; and a reduction of $87 million in international transaction revenue from foreign currency hedges. The 24 basis point decline in total take rate resulted from each of these factors as well as lower other value-added services revenue.

Honey 對總營收成長貢獻約 1.5 個百分點，但僅能部分抵消其他加值服務營收的逆風。第三季交易抽成率（transaction take rate）為 2.06%，總抽成率（total take rate）為 2.21%。交易抽成率下滑 15 個基點，主要平均來自以下因素的影響：P2P 交易量成長 47%；商戶交易量組合（其中包含新增的帳單支付交易量）；以及因外匯避險導致國際交易營收減少 8,700 萬美元。總抽成率下滑 24 個基點，則是上述各因素加上其他加值服務營收較低所致。

Transaction expenses had a record low rate of 82 basis points, driven by both funding mix and volume mix in the quarter. Transaction losses were 13 basis points as a rate of TPV, 1 basis point better than Q3 last year. We continue to improve our loss performance through the ongoing advancement of our risk mitigation strategies and enhancement of our risk models. Credit losses were 1 basis point as a rate of TPV. Fewer originations, in conjunction with a consistent macro outlook and no meaningful change in credit quality relative to the second quarter, contributed to this lower rate. As you'll see in our 10-Q, our loan loss reserve coverage ratio increased from 22% to 24%, which is primarily driven by the contraction of our merchant receivables portfolio.

交易費用率創下歷史新低，為 82 個基點，主要受本季資金來源組合與交易量組合共同帶動。交易損失以 TPV 比率計為 13 個基點，較去年第三季改善 1 個基點。我們持續透過推進風險緩解策略與強化風險模型，改善損失表現。信貸損失以 TPV 比率計為 1 個基點。放款承作量較少，加上宏觀展望一致，且相較第二季信用品質沒有顯著變化，共同促成此較低比率。如各位將在我們的 10-Q 中看到，我們的貸款損失準備覆蓋率由 22% 提升至 24%，主要由於商戶應收款投資組合收縮所致。

Moving to our nontransaction-related expenses. Consistent with our remarks when we reported second quarter results, we are increasing our organic investment spend in the back half of the year. This environment has created a unique opportunity for us to advance our leadership in payments and extend our competitive advantages and emerge from this period stronger and better positioned to increase our relevance. While this incremental investment is more heavily weighted to Q4, we began deploying these funds in Q3.

接著談非交易相關費用。與我們公布第二季業績時的說明一致，我們正在下半年提高有機投資支出。此環境為我們提供了獨特機會，得以推進我們在支付領域的領導地位、延伸競爭優勢，並在此期間結束後以更強、更有利的位置提升我們的相關性。雖然這些新增投資更偏重於第四季，但我們已在第三季開始部署這些資金。

Nontransaction-related expenses increased by 23% from Q3 last year, reflecting this increased level of investment. While sales and marketing spend was higher as a percentage of revenue, this was more than offset by leverage across each of our other nontransaction-related expense line items. Overall, we realized leverage of 50 basis points on nontransaction-related expenses.

非交易相關費用較去年第三季增加23%，反映投資水準提高。雖然銷售與行銷支出占營收比重較高，但這一影響已被我們其他各項非交易相關費用科目的規模效益所抵銷。整體而言，我們在非交易相關費用上實現了50個基點的槓桿效益。

Operating margin for the quarter was 27.2%. This is the strongest performance we've reported for any third quarter and represents a 377 basis point improvement from last year. We continue to be focused on delivering operating efficiencies while investing in our strategic priorities.

本季營業利益率為27.2%。這是我們在任何第三季所報告過的最強表現，較去年提升377個基點。我們持續專注於在投資策略優先事項的同時，交付營運效率。

Non-GAAP other income declined by $57 million relative to last year, driven by increased interest expense from a higher debt balance and reduced interest income on corporate cash from lower interest rates. From a modeling standpoint, we expect this line item to continue to be a net expense in the near term. For the third quarter, non-GAAP EPS increased 41% to $1.07. The timing of our incremental investment spend, which is weighted more towards the fourth quarter, contributed to this strong performance.

非GAAP其他收入較去年減少5,700萬美元，主要受較高負債餘額帶來的利息費用增加，以及利率下降導致公司現金利息收入減少所致。從建模角度來看，我們預期短期內此項目將持續為淨費用。第三季非GAAP每股盈餘（EPS）成長41%至1.07美元。我們新增投資支出的時點（較偏向第四季）也促成了本季的強勁表現。

We ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and investments of $17.6 billion. In addition, we generated $479 million in free cash flow. Lower free cash flow in the quarter resulted primarily from higher cash taxes. The core cash generation of the business remains extremely strong. On average, in 2020, we generated approximately $1.3 billion in free cash flow each quarter. And for the full year, we continue to expect to generate more than $5 billion in free cash flow.

本季結束時，我們的現金、約當現金及投資為176億美元。此外，我們產生了4.79億美元的自由現金流。本季自由現金流較低主要源於現金稅負較高。公司核心現金創造能力仍極為強勁。2020年平均而言，我們每季約產生13億美元的自由現金流。就全年而言，我們仍預期將產生超過50億美元的自由現金流。

I now want to shift to our expectations for the rest of 2020 and 2021. In reinstating guidance in July, we were providing our best estimate of performance for the back half of the year. The degree of difficulty inherent in providing an outlook was and continues to be significant. We are an important part of the foundation of global commerce and do not operate in isolation. COVID rates, quarantine measures, stimulus programs, election outcomes and the normalization of economic activity all affect our estimates.

我現在想轉向我們對2020年剩餘期間及2021年的預期。在7月恢復提供財測指引時，我們提供的是對下半年表現的最佳估計。提供展望的難度當時很高，現在仍然顯著。我們是全球商務基礎的重要一環，並非在真空中運作。COVID感染率、隔離措施、刺激方案、選舉結果以及經濟活動正常化，都會影響我們的估計。

What we do know is that our business is very strong. Our core business continues to perform at an unprecedented level. We've seen a step change in e-commerce penetration this year. We expect there to be a deep and permanent change to commerce and consumer behavior, both in the U.S. and internationally. While it's difficult to quantify the precise degree to which secular trends will be affected by the pandemic, our addressable opportunity has grown meaningfully.

我們確知的是，我們的業務非常強勁。我們的核心業務持續以空前的水準表現。今年我們看到電商滲透率出現階躍式提升。我們預期商務與消費者行為將出現深刻且永久的改變，無論在美國或國際市場皆然。雖然難以量化疫情將在多大程度上影響長期結構性趨勢，但我們的可服務機會已顯著擴大。

Our fourth quarter forecast contemplates sustained strength in our business, reflecting the powerful value proposition of our 2-sided platform and the profound shift in consumer behavior we've seen this year towards e-commerce and increased digitization. Relative to a few months ago, we expect a greater impact on fourth quarter revenue growth from eBay's payments intermediation given the pace of merchant migration in the third quarter. Heading into Q3, we anticipated this to be about a 2 point headwind to fourth quarter revenue growth. We now expect it to be about 3.5 points.

我們對第四季的預測納入了業務持續強勁的假設，反映我們雙邊平台的強大價值主張，以及今年我們所見消費者行為朝向電商與數位化加速轉移的深刻變化。相較於幾個月前，鑑於第三季商戶遷移速度，我們預期eBay付款中介（payments intermediation）對第四季營收成長的影響將更大。進入第三季前，我們原先預期這將對第四季營收成長造成約2個點的逆風；目前我們預期約為3.5個點。

Over the longer term, a more rapid transition of merchants to eBay's managed payments platform is better for us strategically, financially and operationally. It will allow us to contain this impact mostly to the back half of this year and next year, relative to a slower progression of merchants with a much longer tail. All of this is to say, and this is a very important point, that while headwinds to our revenue growth and transaction margin expansion will appear more pronounced over the next year from eBay, this impact will be largely contained to that period. Even more importantly, once we are beyond this transition, we expect our volume and revenue growth rates to reaccelerate given the drag that eBay has been for the past 5 years. During this period, on average, PayPal's revenue, excluding eBay, has grown about 23% annually. By comparison, revenue from eBay's Marketplaces business, even including this year's stronger growth profile, has grown, on average, only about 4% each year. On a volume basis, the divergence between these growth rates is even more stark.

從更長期來看，商戶更快速轉移至eBay的管理式付款平台，對我們在策略、財務與營運上都更有利。相較於商戶以較慢速度推進、並拖出更長尾巴的情況，這將使我們能將此影響主要限制在今年下半年與明年。換言之（而且這點非常重要），雖然未來一年因eBay因素使我們的營收成長與交易毛利率擴張所面臨的逆風看起來會更為明顯，但其影響大致將被限制在該期間。更重要的是，一旦我們完成這段轉換，我們預期在過去5年eBay對我們造成的拖累消退後，我們的交易量與營收成長率將重新加速。在此期間，平均而言，排除eBay後，PayPal的營收每年約成長23%。相較之下，eBay的Marketplaces業務營收，即使包含今年較強的成長表現，平均每年僅約成長4%。以交易量來看，這些成長率之間的分歧更為明顯。

In addition, we expect the slower recovery in travel to persist. While we saw travel volumes strengthen in June and July, we've not seen these levels sustain. We believe this is likely due, in part, to continued high coronavirus infection rates and the impact of the virus on global mobility. Similar to eBay, the headwinds from travel volumes are transitory and exogenous. As a result of these dynamics, we expect our fourth quarter revenue growth to be in the range of 20% to 25% on both a spot and currency-neutral basis. For the full year, this will result in a range for revenue growth of 21% to 22% on a currency-neutral basis or 20% to 21% on a spot basis. This guidance is approximately 3 points higher than our expectations at the start of the year. To put in perspective, we expect to add more than $3.5 billion to our revenue base this year, which is more than 1.5x the revenue we added in 2019.

此外，我們預期旅遊業務的復甦偏慢將持續。雖然我們在6月與7月看到旅遊交易量走強，但未見該水準得以延續。我們認為這部分可能是由於冠狀病毒感染率仍高，以及病毒對全球流動性的影響。與eBay類似，旅遊交易量帶來的逆風屬於暫時性且外生因素。基於這些動態，我們預期第四季營收成長在即期匯率與固定匯率（currency-neutral）基礎下皆將落在20%至25%的區間。就全年而言，這將使營收成長在固定匯率基礎下為21%至22%，或在即期匯率基礎下為20%至21%。此指引較我們年初的預期約高出3個點。為了提供一些對照，我們預期今年將使營收基礎增加超過35億美元，這超過我們2019年新增營收的1.5倍。

On our call last quarter, we stated that we expected to deliver 25% EPS growth for the back half of the year. We are raising that outlook to 29%. Incorporated into this outlook is 17% to 18% growth in EPS in the fourth quarter, which reflects the increased weighting of investment spend relative to the third. For the year, we now expect this will result in approximately 27% to 28% growth in non-GAAP EPS, marking the fourth consecutive year in which we've delivered at least 25% growth in EPS.

在上季電話會議中，我們表示預期下半年可達成25%的EPS成長。我們將該展望上調至29%。此展望包含第四季EPS成長17%至18%，反映相較第三季，投資支出比重提高。就全年而言，我們目前預期非GAAP EPS約成長27%至28%，這也將是我們連續第四年達成至少25%的EPS成長。

Again, to put this in context, relative to last year, on an essentially flat share count, we'll be adding more than $0.80 in earnings for each share outstanding. And relative to our medium-term outlook, which calls for approximately 20% EPS growth each year, we are now more than $0.30 per share ahead of this plan.

同樣地，為了提供一些背景，相較去年，在股數基本持平的情況下，我們將為每一股流通在外股份增加超過0.80美元的獲利。並且相較於我們中期展望（每年約20%的EPS成長），我們目前已較該計畫超前每股超過0.30美元。

I'd now like to discuss how we're thinking about our outlook beyond 2020. The strong acceleration we've experienced this year, along with the pronounced shift in consumer behavior, sets us up exceptionally well for the years ahead. I don't think we've ever been more excited or energized about our prospects. We are clearly on a trajectory to deliver stronger long-term growth than our previously guided medium-term outlook of 17% to 18% currency-neutral revenue growth and approximately 20% earnings growth on average annually.

接下來我想談談我們對2020年之後展望的思考。今年我們所經歷的強勁加速，以及消費者行為的顯著轉變，讓我們在未來幾年具備極佳的起跑位置。我認為我們從未對前景如此興奮或充滿動能。我們顯然正走在一條軌道上，將交付比先前所指引的中期展望更強的長期成長；先前中期展望為固定匯率營收成長17%至18%，以及平均每年約20%的獲利成長。

That said, 2021 still presents a hurdle. Given the transition off of eBay, next year was always going to be a tougher comp for us. Our very strong performance this year adds to this dynamic. In providing guidance this year, our goal has been to responsibly balance transparency with reliability and certainty.

儘管如此，2021年仍是一道門檻。考量從eBay轉換的過程，明年原本就會是較具挑戰性的比較基期。今年我們非常強勁的表現也加劇了這一動態。在今年提供指引時，我們的目標是在透明度與可靠性、確定性之間負責任地取得平衡。

Looking at the range of outcomes for the entirety of 2021 requires us to look out over the next 14 months. We are very confident in our opportunity set, positioning and ability to drive increased engagement. However, there continues to be significant variability in macro-related factors, and we feel that providing guidance for that period right now would require a wider guidance range than we believe is constructive. Once we close out 2020, we'll be better positioned to provide our thoughts for 2021, which we will share in February when we report our full year results. In addition, at our Investor Day later that month, we look forward to providing more context for our longer-term outlook.

要評估2021年全年的可能結果範圍，意味著我們必須展望未來14個月。我們對自身的機會集合、定位以及推動更高互動的能力非常有信心。然而，宏觀相關因素仍存在顯著變動性，我們認為此刻若為該期間提供指引，將需要比我們認為具建設性的更寬指引區間。一旦我們結束2020年，我們將更有條件提供對2021年的看法，並會在2月公布全年業績時分享。此外，在當月稍後的投資人日（Investor Day），我們也期待就更長期展望提供更多背景。

Our ability to sustainably deliver strong growth at our scale is indicative of the network effects of our business. Our performance demonstrates our ability to successfully execute in the face of a more challenging operating environment as well as the strength, diversity and resilience of our platform. This is really a year unlike any other. In many ways, our collective experience has demonstrated that we've never been more connected or more dependent on one another to help each other, drive prosperity and development and realize the promise of globalization. PayPal stands at the center of this.

我們能在此規模下持續交付強勁成長，顯示了我們業務的網路效應。我們的表現證明，在更具挑戰的營運環境下，我們仍能成功執行，同時也展現平台的強度、多元性與韌性。今年確實不同以往。從許多面向來看，我們的共同經驗顯示，我們彼此之間從未如此緊密相連，也從未如此相互依賴，以彼此協助、推動繁榮與發展，並實現全球化的承諾。PayPal正位於其中的核心。

In 2020, we will process more than $900 billion in payment volume and serve approximately 375 million customers. We are the largest open digital platform for payments globally, and the events of this year have served to strengthen our value proposition and relevance. We have an important role to play in facilitating commerce and payments, and we're executing our plans with an urgency to meet the growing needs of our customers in this increasingly digital world.

2020 年，我們將處理超過 9,000 億美元的支付交易量，並服務約 3.75 億名客戶。我們是全球最大的開放式數位支付平台，而今年的事件進一步強化了我們的價值主張與相關性。我們在促進商務與支付方面扮演重要角色，並以緊迫感執行我們的計畫，以滿足在這個日益數位化世界中客戶不斷成長的需求。

With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for Q&A.

接下來，我把時間交給主持人進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Darrin Peller of Wolfe Research.

（主持人說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Darrin Peller。

All right. I know you're all holding off at this point on guidance given the macro variability, but coming off the year with 70 million net new actives, which is at least 30 million more than you would have expected, and a lot of these are new demographics rather than a pull forward as you guys have talked about. Can you just talk -- maybe touch on the types of NNAs you'd expect for either '21 or even longer term, kind of additions you can add? And really thinking about that, in context to 32% growth in daily active users, what are we talking about in terms of opportunity there? And really, what are the drivers of it? Is it international? All the partnerships? It seems like there could be a long runway but a lot of people. I mean I just want to hear where -- what sources are.

好的。我知道鑑於總體環境的變動性，你們目前暫不提供指引；但今年新增 7,000 萬名淨新增活躍帳戶（NNA），至少比你們原先預期多了 3,000 萬，而且其中很多是新的客群，而不是你們所提到的需求提前釋放。你能否談談——也許簡要說明一下——你們對 2021 年甚至更長期的 NNA 類型與規模的預期，也就是你們還能新增多少？再把這放在日活躍用戶成長 32% 的背景下來看，我們談的機會到底有多大？真正的驅動因素是什麼？是國際市場？所有合作夥伴關係？看起來跑道很長、受眾也很大。我只是想聽聽你們認為來源在哪裡——有哪些來源。

Yes. Darrin, it's Dan. Thanks for your question. So we had another strong quarter for NNAs, our second highest organic quarter for net new actives. By the way, interestingly, the shape of that is very consistent, approximately 5 million net new actives each month coming in, no falloff, no pull forward, just consistent growth in that metric. And as you know, we're still targeting and feel comfortable with the 70 million number that we gave last quarter for NNAs for the year.

是的。Darrin，我是 Dan。謝謝你的問題。我們本季 NNA 再度表現強勁，是我們有機成長的淨新增活躍帳戶第二高的季度。順帶一提，有趣的是，其走勢非常一致：每個月大約新增 500 萬名淨新增活躍帳戶，沒有下滑、沒有提前釋放，就是在這個指標上持續成長。而如你所知，我們仍以去年一季所提供的全年 7,000 萬 NNA 目標為準，並對此感到有信心。

I think a couple of important things to point out here. First of all, the number of new merchants that are coming on the platform remains quite elevated, over 1.5 million merchant accounts this quarter. Our run rate pre-COVID was somewhere around 500,000 to 750,000. So now we've got 28 million merchants on the platform and 361 million total active accounts.

我認為這裡有幾點重要事項需要指出。首先，新加入平台的商戶數量仍然相當高，本季新增超過 150 萬個商戶帳戶。我們在 COVID 之前的運行水準大約是 50 萬到 75 萬之間。因此，目前平台上已有 2,800 萬名商戶，以及 3.61 億個總活躍帳戶。

In many ways here, scale begets scale. As we grow, as more and more merchants have PayPal, you probably have noticed as well more and more merchants are putting PayPal front and center. We're creating new and more compelling ways to buy. Our buy now, pay later has exploded into the marketplace. We've just rolled that out to the vast majority of our consumer base. We're seeing huge take-up in that and incremental halo as a result of it.

在很多方面，規模會帶來規模。隨著我們成長、越來越多商戶採用 PayPal，你可能也注意到，越來越多商戶把 PayPal 放在最顯眼的位置。我們正在創造更新、更具吸引力的購買方式。我們的「先買後付」在市場上快速爆發。我們剛把它推廣到我們絕大多數的消費者客群。我們看到非常高的採用率，並因此帶來額外的光環效應（halo）。

And so my view on net new actives is we're going to continue to see good growth on that for a couple of reasons. One, our checkout experience and the number of products that we're putting out there is just increasing. You heard me say in my remarks, we are very focused on expanding our digital wallet capabilities, both on Venmo and PayPal. We are very serious about driving towards being an everyday use case.

因此，我對淨新增活躍帳戶的看法是：我們將持續看到良好的成長，原因有幾個。第一，我們的結帳體驗以及我們推出的產品數量都在增加。你在我剛才的發言中也聽到，我們非常專注於擴展數位錢包能力，涵蓋 Venmo 與 PayPal。我們非常認真地推動成為「每日使用」的情境。

Why is that so important? When somebody uses 2 or more of our products, say, checkout and P2P, their churn reduces by 50%. And think about as we approach 400 million customers on our platform, every basis point of churn reduction matters a ton in terms of our NNAs going forward. And so I think you've got a continued drive every industry towards digitization, more and more merchants coming on, more products, more functionality and reduced churn, and I think as we look forward, I think NNAs will continue to remain elevated versus pre-COVID levels.

為什麼這麼重要？當某人使用我們兩個或以上的產品，例如結帳與 P2P，他們的流失率會降低 50%。而當我們的平台客戶數接近 4 億時，每降低 1 個基點的流失率，對未來的 NNA 都會產生非常大的影響。因此，我認為各行各業持續推動數位化、越來越多商戶加入、更多產品與功能、以及更低的流失率，綜合來看，展望未來，我認為 NNA 將持續維持在高於 COVID 前水準的狀態。

Your next question will come from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Tien-Tsin Huang。

I wanted to ask on the -- on some of the KPIs. I think they're related, if you don't mind me just putting them all together. So TPV accelerated, while transaction revenue growth held pretty constant. And I know you talked about the take rate here, John. But can you maybe unpack it for us a little bit more and help us on how it might trend in the fourth quarter and maybe even in 2021 with eBay and Paymentus and PayPal and everything else?

我想問一些——一些 KPI。我覺得它們彼此相關，如果你不介意我把它們放在一起問。TPV 加速成長，但交易收入成長率大致維持不變。我知道你談到抽成率（take rate）了，John。但你能否再幫我們更進一步拆解一下，並說明它在第四季以及可能在 2021 年，隨著 eBay、Paymentus、PayPal 以及其他因素的影響下，可能會如何走勢？

And then separately, but somewhat related, just looking at the fourth quarter guide, I know you're assuming some deceleration from the third quarter. I heard eBay being 1.5 incrementally weaker here. Any other call-outs beyond conservatism? I totally get why you're not giving 2021, but I know a lot of moving pieces going into the end of the year here.

另外一個獨立但有點相關的問題：看第四季指引，我知道你們假設相較第三季會有一些放緩。我聽到 eBay 這裡增量上弱了 1.5。除了保守之外，還有其他需要特別點出的因素嗎？我完全理解你們為什麼不提供 2021 年指引，但今年年底前確實有很多變動因素。

Sure, Tien-Tsin. It's good to speak with you. So we did see a strong acceleration in TPV in the quarter. And aside from just growth overall in the business, there's a couple of things to call out. I think notably, P2P volume was up almost 50%. 47%, I believe, is the exact number. And then we saw a lot more volume from bill pay with the 100% ramp of Paymentus in the quarter and so good, strong growth there. As it relates to revenue, we had a $17 million hedge loss in the quarter, and that relates to a $70 million hedge gain in the prior year. So you've got the difference there that really put pressure on the revenue side relative to TPV.

當然，Tien-Tsin。很高興和你交流。本季我們確實看到 TPV 強勁加速。除了整體業務成長之外，還有幾點值得一提。特別是，P2P 交易量成長了將近 50%；我記得精確數字是 47%。此外，隨著本季 Paymentus 100% 併入，我們也看到帳單支付帶來更多交易量，因此那部分也有良好且強勁的成長。就營收而言，本季我們有 1,700 萬美元的避險損失，而去年同期則是 7,000 萬美元的避險收益。因此，兩者之間的差異確實使得相較於 TPV，營收端承受了壓力。

On take rate, there's a couple of dynamics to think about, too. You got -- well, P2P and bill pay tend to have lower take rates. They also have lower transaction expenses. And so what we consistently focus on in our business is not necessarily take rate, but the incremental transaction margin dollars. And a way to think about our business in the quarter, Tien-Tsin, like for every dollar of revenue -- of incremental growth that we brought in, in the quarter, almost $0.70 of that fell to the transaction margin line. And so it shows that there's a good balance between those items that maybe have a lower take rate but also have a lower transaction expense. So we're very focused on the margin profile of those different elements of our business.

關於抽成率，也有幾個動態需要考量。你有——嗯，P2P 與帳單支付通常抽成率較低；但它們的交易費用也較低。因此，我們在業務上持續關注的並不一定是抽成率，而是增量交易毛利（transaction margin）金額。以本季的業務來理解，Tien-Tsin：我們每帶來 1 美元的營收——也就是增量成長的 1 美元——其中將近 0.70 美元會落到交易毛利那一行。這顯示在一些抽成率較低但交易費用也較低的項目之間，存在良好的平衡。因此，我們非常關注業務各要素的毛利結構。

With respect to the fourth quarter, the only thing I'd call out in addition to eBay, which we talked about in our prepared remarks, the travel and event vertical, as I also mentioned, has been slower to recover than we anticipated. Again, we saw some green shoots back in June and July, and those haven't persisted to the extent that we mentioned. But again, I'll point out, both of those things are transitory, and they really -- in terms of the long-term impact to our business, it's not going to matter for us. We're very excited about not only what next year holds but each year thereafter. The math of each of those is that, yes, it's a tougher comp for next year, but when we lap that, we'll be at a place where we actually have accelerated growth from that time period.

至於第四季，除了我們在事先準備的發言中提到的 eBay 之外，我還要補充一點：如我也提到的，旅遊與活動（event）垂直領域的復甦速度比我們預期更慢。同樣地，我們在 6 月與 7 月看到一些復甦的跡象，但其延續性不如我們所提到的程度。不過我也要指出，這兩項因素都是暫時性的，從長期對我們業務的影響來看，對我們並不會造成實質影響。我們不僅對明年、也對其後每一年都感到非常振奮。就這兩項因素的數學效果而言，是的，明年的比較基期會更具挑戰，但當我們跨過那個基期後，我們將處於一個實際上相較於那段期間呈現加速成長的位置。

Yes. And I'd just add to that. Giving a wider range in Q4 just makes sense to go do. It's the prudent thing to do. It, in no way, takes away from the underlying strength in our business. I mean, our core remains extremely strong, core PayPal growing at 30% plus in revenue. October was a good month for us. But you've got everything from virus numbers, lockdowns, which probably have the benefit of helping us as more people are at home, spending online. But we balance that with what is consumer confidence is going to look like, what's the economy due to stimulus payments, what's the holiday shopping season going to look like. We've got an election coming up tomorrow, potential social unrest. When we put all of that together, it just is prudent to give a wider range. And so that wider range to us does nothing to take away from the strength we see in the business, but we thought it was the right thing to do.

是的。我再補充一下。第四季給出更寬的區間是合理的，也是審慎之舉。這絲毫不會削弱我們業務的基本面強勁。我們的核心業務仍然非常強勁，核心 PayPal 的營收成長在 30% 以上。10 月對我們來說是個不錯的月份。但你同時面臨從疫情數字、封鎖措施——這可能反而對我們有利，因為更多人待在家、在線上消費——到消費者信心會如何、經濟在刺激金發放下會如何、假期購物季會如何等各種因素。我們明天還有一場選舉，可能出現社會動盪。把這些全部綜合起來，給出更寬的區間就是審慎之舉。因此，對我們而言，這個更寬的區間完全不會削弱我們所看到的業務強勁，但我們認為這是正確的做法。

Your next question will come from the line of Jason Kupferberg of Bank of America.

您的下一個問題將由美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Jason Kupferberg 連線提問。

So just wondering as we think about the puts and takes for 2021, I mean, is it fair to assume that the eBay headwind of 3.5% in Q4 '20 is a decent proxy for next year? And then how we should think about some of the other puts and takes, whether it be the ongoing travel headwind -- or, obviously, you've got a whole host of new initiatives like Pay in 4 and in-store, et cetera. So that's the first part of my question.

所以我只是想問，當我們思考 2021 年的利多與利空時，我的意思是，是否可以合理地假設 2020 年第四季 eBay 造成的 3.5% 逆風，是對明年的一個不錯的代理指標？另外，我們應該如何看待其他一些利多與利空，不論是持續的旅遊逆風——或者，顯然你們還有一整套新計畫，例如 Pay in 4 和實體店內等，諸如此類。所以這是我問題的第一部分。

And then just on the second part, regarding this notion of acceleration in the core business due to COVID, any way to give us a rough idea of that? I mean if you just take eBay out of the equation, how much do you think your revenue growth profile has structurally accelerated with a multiyear view, again, excluding eBay?

然後第二部分，關於因 COVID 導致核心業務加速的這個概念，有沒有辦法給我們一個大致的概念？我的意思是，如果你把 eBay 從等式中拿掉，從多年期的角度來看（同樣排除 eBay），你認為你們的營收成長輪廓在結構上加速了多少？

Thanks for the question, Jason. I appreciate trying to kind of parse out what 2021 would look like. Let me just say this. There are a number of puts and takes for our business next year. On the sort of headwind side, obviously, eBay will continue to be a headwind next year as they ramp through the year. We've been pretty consistent, though, with our expectations around the pace of that. And we've long thought that they would be largely complete by the end of next year. And at the same time, we are still maintaining a share of checkout, which is north of 50%. And so this has been very consistent with our expectations from the onset.

謝謝你的問題，Jason。我很感謝你試著把 2021 年會是什麼樣子拆解出來。我先這麼說：明年我們的業務有許多利多與利空。在逆風面，顯然 eBay 明年仍會是逆風，因為他們會在一年中逐步提升（ramp）。不過，我們對於其進度的預期一直相當一致。我們也長期認為，到明年年底大致上會完成。同時，我們仍維持超過 50% 的結帳市占（share of checkout）。因此，這與我們從一開始的預期非常一致。

Travel and event is going to be largely tied to the path of the virus. It's an overused term, I know, but that's largely outside of our control. And when the world regains mobility, I'm sure we will see a resurgence in that. But the other area that I think people perhaps haven't quite taken into account yet is the ongoing headwind that credit should be next year. And so those would be on the headwind category.

旅遊與活動將在很大程度上取決於病毒的走向。這是一個被過度使用的詞，我知道，但那在很大程度上超出我們的控制範圍。當世界重新恢復流動性時，我相信我們會看到那部分的復甦。但我認為人們可能尚未完全納入考量的另一個領域，是明年信貸（credit）仍將帶來持續的逆風。因此，這些會歸在逆風類別。

In terms of things that we're excited about that can help mute that or completely offset that, there's a number of things that we're doing that we've called out. But the continued monetization of Venmo, the launch of Pay in 4 is something that we're very excited about and then expanding the consumer wallet with things like bill pay and subscriptions and so forth. So it puts us in a pretty good position as we look at the new products that we're rolling out, which I'll say is like our product and technology team has never rolled out more products at the rate that they are at any time in my 5 years here. So we're exceedingly pleased about the progress there.

就我們感到興奮、能夠幫助減弱甚至完全抵消上述影響的事項而言，我們正在做很多我們已經點出的事情。其中包括 Venmo 的持續變現（monetization）、Pay in 4 的推出（這是我們非常興奮的），以及透過帳單支付、訂閱等來擴大消費者錢包。因此，隨著我們推出新產品，我們處於相當有利的位置。我想說的是，在我在這裡的 5 年裡，我們的產品與技術團隊從未以現在這樣的速度推出過這麼多產品。所以我們對那裡的進展感到非常滿意。

Yes. I mean I think we'd expect our core business to remain strong, maybe even get stronger throughout '21 as we add more and more capabilities. We're seeing really nice adoption very early, obviously, in what we're doing in the offline space. The crypto announcement, just the very early reactions to that are well beyond our expectations. Our buy now, pay later value proposition is a great one. I mean, for merchants, it's no incremental cost, just increases sales to them. It is -- and we get to leverage the large base that we have right now. And as I mentioned, we've got a host of new services coming onboard next year. And as Darrin talked about, we have 70 million net new actives that we'll ride on increased transactions with each of them, counterbalanced by what we always knew was eBay, which is, as John mentioned, a transitory event. It will play itself out next year and will accelerate out from that.

是的。我的意思是，我們預期核心業務會維持強勁，甚至在 2021 年期間，隨著我們加入越來越多能力，可能會更強。我們在離線場景（offline space）所做的事情上，很早期就看到非常好的採用情況。加密貨幣的公告，就其非常早期的反應而言，遠超出我們的預期。我們的「先買後付」（buy now, pay later）價值主張很棒。我的意思是，對商戶而言，沒有額外成本，只是提高他們的銷售。它是——而且我們可以利用我們目前龐大的用戶基礎。正如我提到的，明年我們還會有一系列新服務上線。並且如 Darrin 所談到的，我們有 7,000 萬淨新增活躍用戶（net new actives），我們將透過每位用戶更多的交易來受益；同時由我們一直知道的 eBay 所抵消——如 John 提到的，那是一個過渡性事件。它會在明年逐步結束，之後我們將從那裡加速成長。

So I think the really important thing to emphasize here is that when we come into our Investor Day in February, we will be raising our medium-term guidance. We feel quite confident about that given everything that we've seen. 2021 was always going to be the year that we would transition away from eBay. Frankly, I'm happy that that's going as well as it is right now and as fast as it is so that, as John mentioned, we take that part of our business that is the slowest growing part of our business and we replace it with the faster growing parts of our core business and other marketplaces. And so for us, this really couldn't come at a better time. The transition from eBay and all the things that we're doing to build our business and shape the future gives us a lot of confidence as we look out at over the next several years.

所以我認為這裡真正重要、需要強調的是：當我們在二月的投資人日（Investor Day）到來時，我們將上調我們的中期指引（medium-term guidance）。基於我們所看到的一切，我們對此相當有信心。2021 年一直都會是我們從 eBay 轉型離開的一年。坦白說，我很高興目前進展得如此順利、速度也如此之快，因為如 John 所提到的，我們把業務中成長最慢的那一部分替換成核心業務與其他市集（marketplaces）中成長更快的部分。因此，對我們而言，這真的來得正是時候。從 eBay 的轉型，以及我們為了打造業務與塑造未來所做的一切，讓我們在展望未來幾年時充滿信心。

Your next question will come from the line of James Faucette of Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題將由摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 James Faucette 連線提問。

I wanted to just build on some questions, particularly around next quarter and that cadence. It looks like -- it sounds like, John, from what you're saying is that there's going to be some incremental spend in the fourth quarter. Maybe it got started late in the third quarter and that is going to impact margins. Can you talk a little bit about, I guess, the contributors to the very strong margins in the third quarter, a little more color on how to think about the spending and impact on the fourth quarter and then how we should think about what that margin trajectory looks like beyond that and particularly as we head towards a normalized world?

我想延伸一些問題，特別是關於下一季以及那個節奏（cadence）。看起來——聽起來，John，從你所說的來看，第四季會有一些額外支出。也許在第三季末才開始，並且會影響利潤率。你能否談談，我想，第三季非常強勁利潤率的貢獻因素是什麼；再多提供一些色彩，讓我們理解第四季的支出與影響；然後我們應該如何看待之後的利潤率走勢，特別是當我們邁向一個正常化的世界時？

Sure. Well, first, James, you're exactly right. The balance of spend of that $300 million that we earmarked on the last call is going to happen in the fourth quarter, and that really gives you the different margin profile from the third to the fourth. But looking out on a more sustainable level or run rate basis, whether it's 2021 or beyond, there's a data point in our third quarter results, which I think really illustrates the potential that we have, and that's the incremental operating margin that we had in the quarter. So what I mean by that is for every dollar of growth that we had in revenue, how much of that fell to the bottom line.

當然。首先，James，你說得完全正確。我們在上次電話會議中標記的 3 億美元支出，其餘部分將在第四季發生，這確實造成第三季到第四季不同的利潤率輪廓。但若從更可持續的層面或以常態化的運行率（run rate）來看，不論是 2021 年或更久之後，我們第三季結果中有一個數據點，我認為非常能說明我們的潛力，那就是本季的增量營業利益率（incremental operating margin）。我的意思是，對於我們營收每增加 1 美元的成長，有多少會落到最終盈餘（bottom line）。

And if you normalize for acquisitions, it was roughly $0.50 -- $0.48 fell to the bottom line. And that demonstrates 2 things, which I think are relevant and hopefully answer your question. But one is just the trends that we're seeing around our core checkout, and we have an expectation that those persist at a higher level than we entered this pandemic period. And so certainly, that has implications on our business.

如果把併購因素正常化（normalize for acquisitions），大約有 0.50 美元——0.48 美元落到最終盈餘。這展示了兩件事，我認為都很相關，也希望能回答你的問題。第一，是我們在核心結帳（core checkout）方面看到的趨勢；我們預期這些趨勢會以高於我們進入這段疫情期間時的水準持續。因此，這當然會對我們的業務產生影響。

But the second and equally as important is what it says about the scalability of our business. We, in the past, have not always done the best job of growing at a low marginal cost. And for the past 2 or 3 years now, we've very -- we've demonstrated very well our ability to do that. And ours is a platform that performs very well in a growth environment because it -- we can do it at a very low marginal cost. And so that's what you see in that operating margin performance.

但第二點、同樣重要的是，它反映了我們業務的可擴展性（scalability）。過去我們不一定總是能以很低的邊際成本（marginal cost）來成長。而在過去 2 到 3 年，我們已經非常——我們已經非常清楚地展示了我們有能力做到這一點。我們的平台在成長環境下表現非常好，因為——我們可以以非常低的邊際成本來實現成長。因此，你在那個營業利益率表現中看到的就是這一點。

So I would say that there's a natural tendency as we grow that margins are going to want to increase. That said, we also recognize we have a tremendous opportunity in front of us with the change that's happening. And we clearly want to invest into that. But it's the right thing to do in the fourth quarter, and it will be the right thing to do going forward. I think, fortunately, given the financial profile of our business, we've been able to demonstrate that we can both do that and expand our margins, and we anticipate doing so going forward.

所以我會說，隨著我們成長，利潤率自然會傾向上升。話雖如此，我們也認知到，面對正在發生的變化，我們眼前有巨大的機會，而我們顯然希望投入資源去把握它。但在第四季這麼做是正確的，未來也會是正確的。我認為幸運的是，基於我們業務的財務輪廓（financial profile），我們已經證明我們可以同時做到投資與擴大利潤率，而我們也預期未來會繼續如此。

Your next question will come from the line of David Togut of Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題將由 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut 連線提問。

Could you dimension the impact on PayPal's ecosystem from introducing cryptocurrencies, both to buy, sell and hold and to use as a funding mechanism in the PayPal Wallet? And if it's used as a funding source, can you help us think through the impact on transaction expense? Would that be similar, let's say, to ACH or debit funding?

你能否量化在 PayPal 錢包中導入加密貨幣（可買、可賣、可持有，並可作為 PayPal Wallet 的資金來源機制）對 PayPal 生態系的影響？另外，如果把它作為資金來源，能否協助我們思考對交易費用的影響？這會不會類似於，例如，ACH 或簽帳金融卡（debit）入金？

Yes. David, I'll take that question. So I just take a step back. Clearly, the world is rapidly moving from physical to digital, and that's so true for payments and financial services. My conversations with central banks, with the regulators, with a number of folks in the crypto field, there's no question that digital currencies are going to be rising in importance, having increasing functionality and increasing prominence. CBDCs, from my perspective and all my conversations, are a matter of when and how they're done, not if. And I think that our platform, with its digital wallets and the scale that we have right now, can help shape the utility of those currencies. That can range from interoperability between wallets, between the currencies themselves and importantly, into our network of merchants for commerce. And I do think that our platform and all the new digital infrastructure that we're putting in place right now can help make that management and movement of money more efficient and less expensive and faster.

好的。David，我來回答這個問題。我先退一步看。很明顯，世界正快速從實體走向數位，這在支付與金融服務上尤其如此。我與各國央行、監管機構，以及加密領域的許多人交流後，毫無疑問，數位貨幣的重要性將日益提升，功能性會更強，能見度也會更高。就我觀點以及我所有的對話來看，央行數位貨幣（CBDC）是「何時」以及「如何」推出的問題，而不是「會不會」的問題。我認為，我們的平台，憑藉數位錢包以及目前的規模，能協助塑造這些貨幣的使用效用。這可以涵蓋錢包之間的互通性、貨幣彼此之間的互通性，更重要的是，導入我們的商戶網路以用於商務。我也確信，我們的平台以及我們目前正在建置的全新數位基礎設施，能讓資金的管理與流動更有效率、成本更低、速度更快。

Just in terms of what we've introduced with buy, hold, sell, did a lot of research on that. Our base is very eager for us to offer these capabilities. It really came up very high on their wish list, and we are seeing that come into fruition very quickly. Now we've only rolled this out to 10% of our base. We did that a couple of days ago, but our waiting list was 2 to 3x what our expectations were. We're going to take up our $10,000 limit per day to $15,000 per day based on the demand that we're seeing. And we'll roll out to 100% in the U.S. in the next 2 to 3 weeks. We're then going to expand internationally, and we'll expand into Venmo in the first half of next year.

就我們推出的買入、持有、賣出功能而言，我們做了大量研究。我們的用戶基礎非常渴望我們提供這些能力；這在他們的願望清單上名列前茅，而我們也看到它很快就落地成真。現在我們只向 10% 的用戶推出。我們在幾天前這麼做，但等候名單是我們預期的 2 到 3 倍。基於我們看到的需求，我們將把每日 10,000 美元的上限提高到每日 15,000 美元。我們會在接下來 2 到 3 週內在美國擴展到 100% 覆蓋。接著我們將在國際市場擴張，並在明年上半年擴展到 Venmo。

So that's what we're starting off with. What -- and we're seeing people who have already bought crypto open their wallet several times a day to check on what's happening with their crypto investments. We're beginning to already see some halo effects that go on with that. But what I'm really excited about is what we're going to introduce next year, which is, I think, going to dramatically increase the utility of cryptocurrencies by enabling somebody who holds a cryptocurrency in a PayPal account to instantaneously transfer that crypto into fiat currency at a step rate, so volatility is taken out of the equation. No incremental fees charged for them to do that transaction from crypto into a fiat and then immediately settle in fiat with all $28 million of our merchants at our current take rates. And so you have no additional integration needed at any of our merchants. And this is just an elegant way of using cryptocurrencies as a funding mechanism; and yes, it is a lower-cost funding mechanism for us in terms of those transactions.

所以這是我們的起步。至於——我們看到已經買了加密貨幣的人，每天會打開他們的錢包好幾次，查看他們的加密投資發生了什麼。我們已經開始看到一些光環效應。但我真正感到興奮的是我們明年要推出的內容：我認為這將大幅提升加密貨幣的效用，因為它能讓在 PayPal 帳戶中持有加密貨幣的人，以即時方式把該加密貨幣轉換成法幣，並以固定匯率完成，從而把波動性排除在外。他們進行從加密貨幣到法幣的交易不會被收取任何額外費用，然後可立即以法幣，按我們目前的抽成率，向我們全部 2,800 萬家商戶完成結算。因此，我們任何商戶都不需要額外整合。這是一種以加密貨幣作為資金機制的優雅方式；而且是的，就這些交易而言，對我們來說它是一種更低成本的資金來源機制。

But that's just the start of things that we want to go and do with the crypto capabilities. Over the course of next year, you'll see us move into a couple of different areas. Those are the only 2 we're talking about right now, but I see a lot of interesting things we can do with cryptocurrencies, with functionality -- increasing functionality and again, working hand in hand with regulators every step of the way, which is so important, and what they expect from us in order to be a market leader in the digital currency space.

但這只是我們想用加密能力去做的事情的開始。在明年的過程中，你會看到我們進入幾個不同領域。現在我們只談這兩項，但我看到我們可以用加密貨幣做很多有趣的事情、在功能性上——提升功能性；並且再次強調，全程與監管機構密切合作，這非常重要，也是他們對我們的期待，讓我們能在數位貨幣領域成為市場領導者。

Your next question will come from the line of Heath Terry of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Heath Terry。

Great. Dan, you've done a lot over the last year in terms of product development between crypto and pay later, so I realize it's a bit of a greedy ask. But when you look at the size of the point-of-sale opportunity and the success that some startups are having and taking share against the incumbents, I'm curious where your in-person payment strategy stands at this point and how much of a priority it is for you.

很好。Dan，你在過去一年在產品開發上做了很多，包括加密貨幣與先買後付（pay later），所以我知道這個要求有點貪心。但當你看待銷售點（point-of-sale）的機會規模，以及一些新創公司取得成功、從既有業者手中搶占市占時，我很好奇你們目前的線下（in-person）支付策略處於什麼位置，以及這對你們而言有多高的優先順序。

Yes. So I think the best way of thinking about this, Heath, is that every 5 to 7 years, there's a replacement cycle for point of sale. And we are really entering a period of change right now where the operating models for POS have kind of literally changed overnight. Payments clearly need to now reside in the cloud, not at the physical retail location. They need to be fully on omni. They need to reside on a full platform experience across channels.

是的。我認為思考這件事的最佳方式是：每 5 到 7 年，銷售點（POS）會有一次汰換週期。而我們正進入一個變革期，POS 的營運模式幾乎可以說是一夕之間就改變了。支付顯然現在需要部署在雲端，而不是在實體零售門市。它們需要完整支援全通路（omni）。它們需要在跨通路的完整平台體驗上運作。

And I would say that being an incumbent, the space does not add any advantage. In fact, they will need to change fundamentally the way that they think about point of sale. And clearly, the tailwinds are moving towards mobile-oriented point of sale. And we want to capture what is a huge in-store opportunity, be one of the first movers to move to an online full omni solution and then set that up to take advantage of our 2-sided network. And we have a number of plans underway with our iZettle and PayPal Here teams really to try and become a market leader over the longer term. That could be 5 to 7 years, but you'll start to see us make moves in that. I think that really complements all the things we're doing as we move in-store with our consumer base, our QR codes, our contactless payments, NFC inside our app as well as embedding ourselves in other star pays.

我會說，作為既有業者，在這個領域並沒有任何優勢。事實上，他們必須從根本上改變他們看待 POS 的方式。而且很明顯，順風正在朝向以行動裝置為導向的 POS。我們希望掌握龐大的店內機會，成為最早推動線上化、完整全通路解決方案的先行者之一，並進一步利用我們的雙邊網路優勢。我們與 iZettle 和 PayPal Here 團隊已經有多項計畫在進行中，目標是在更長期成為市場領導者。那可能需要 5 到 7 年，但你會開始看到我們在這方面採取行動。我認為這也能補強我們正在做的所有事情：當我們把消費者帶進店內時，包含我們的 QR code、感應式支付、在我們 App 內的 NFC，以及把我們嵌入到其他 star pays 中。

But we're beginning to see, as I mentioned, a lot of early traction in our move in the offline space. And I think there's a really huge opportunity. And we are -- as I mentioned last quarter, we are being pulled into that space by retailers and by consumers. And the faster we move, the more opportunity I think we can gain there.

但正如我提到的，我們開始看到我們在線下領域的布局出現不少早期動能。我認為這裡有非常巨大的機會。而且我們——如我上季所說，我們是被零售商與消費者拉著進入這個領域的。我認為我們動作越快，就越能在那裡取得更多機會。

Your next question will come from the line of Bryan Keane of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Bryan Keane。

Just want to ask about the new products, in particular, the BNPL. Just trying to get a sense of how much incremental volume opportunity is there versus replacing other PayPal payment options. Just thinking about are you going to be able to gain share or checkout at the merchant site. And then secondly, on the Venmo monetization, I heard the $900 million revenue number. Any sense of how that breaks out next year with growth rates from the Venmo credit card? Is that a big percentage of that versus Pay with Venmo, et cetera?

我想問一下新產品，特別是 BNPL（先買後付）。我想了解相較於取代其他 PayPal 付款選項，這裡有多少是新增的交易量機會。也就是說，你們是否能在商戶網站的結帳環節提升市占。第二個問題是關於 Venmo 變現：我聽到 9 億美元的營收數字。能否談談明年這個數字的拆分，例如 Venmo 信用卡的成長率？它在其中占比是否很大，相較於 Pay with Venmo 等等？

Yes. So I'll start now with buy now, pay later and then quickly go into Venmo. I'm extraordinarily pleased with the success that we're having with buy now, pay later. We rolled this out in France several months before we introduced this into the U.S. and then into the U.K. And the uptake that we are seeing in the French market is well beyond any of our expectations. And we just rolled out in the U.S., and the demand is tremendous. And you probably -- if you've opened up your PayPal app very recently in the last couple of days to pay for something on a merchant location, you're probably seeing Pay in 4 pop up as a option.

好的。我先談先買後付，然後快速談 Venmo。我對我們在先買後付上的成功感到非常滿意。我們在把它引入美國與英國之前，先在法國推出了好幾個月。我們在法國市場看到的採用率遠遠超出我們的任何預期。我們剛在美國推出，需求非常強勁。你可能——如果你在最近幾天很近期打開你的 PayPal App，在商戶端要支付某筆款項時，你可能會看到 Pay in 4 作為一個選項跳出來。

I think our value proposition there is second to none. And the reason I say that is it is a beautiful experience in terms of the ability to simply, easily from a consumer to take a larger purchase and divide it in 4 payments interest free. We know our consumers. We have a very high acceptance rate as a result of that. And for merchants, unlike any of the competitors that are offering buy now, pay later functionality, we are offering this as part of our service. There are no incremental fees except for the basic transaction fees that we charge merchants today.

我認為我們在那裡的價值主張無可匹敵。我之所以這麼說，是因為它在體驗上非常出色：消費者可以簡單、輕鬆地把一筆較大的購買分成 4 期、免利息付款。我們了解我們的消費者，因此我們的核准率非常高。對商戶而言，不同於任何提供先買後付功能的競爭對手，我們把這項功能作為我們服務的一部分提供。除了我們今天向商戶收取的基本交易手續費之外，不會有任何額外費用。

And so what we are seeing is just use of it that's well beyond our expectations. I think it's going to be one of our big growth drivers as we go into next year and into 2022. I'm quite high on the potential of what we -- what we'll see with buy now, pay later. And by the way, there's a ton more we can do on that, too, and we have got a large road map around that.

因此，我們看到的使用情況遠遠超出我們的預期。我認為，當我們進入明年以及 2022 年時，這將成為我們重要的成長驅動因素之一。我對「先買後付」的潛力非常看好，也很期待我們——我們將在先買後付上看到的成果。順帶一提，我們在這方面還能做更多，而且我們已經為此規劃了相當龐大的路線圖。

On Venmo, look, we've put out a couple of things here that are new. We do expect Venmo to approach about $900 million in revenues next year. By the way, we expect Venmo to reach profitability in 2022, and that's another big thing to think about. Venmo is clearly turning the corner right now. These are just like these incremental steps that people have been waiting for but we are seeing that come to play. And Venmo has a host of new things coming out. They've got the Venmo credit card, which is one. And by the way, I said it's best in the market, like I've been using the Venmo credit card for the last month or so. It is an incredible experience. I really cannot wait for all of you to use it and see just what I mean.

關於 Venmo，你看，我們在這裡推出了幾項新的東西。我們確實預期 Venmo 明年的營收將接近 9 億美元。順帶一提，我們預期 Venmo 將在 2022 年達到獲利，這也是另一個值得思考的大重點。Venmo 顯然正在轉折點上。這些就像是大家一直在等待的逐步推進，但我們正在看到它開始發揮作用。而且 Venmo 還有一系列新功能即將推出。其中之一是 Venmo 信用卡。順帶一提，我說它是市場上最好的——我過去一個月左右一直在使用 Venmo 信用卡。那是非常棒的體驗。我真的迫不及待想讓你們所有人都去用用看，看看我所說的到底是什麼意思。

Second, we are really revamping the Pay with Venmo experience. It's been a little clunky, more clunky than I would have liked. But by first quarter, that will be as seamless as a PayPal transaction. And we have a ton of extremely large merchants and marketplaces that are anxious to integrate Venmo as a payment mark.

第二，我們正在大幅改造「使用 Venmo 付款」（Pay with Venmo）的體驗。它一直有點卡、不夠順暢，比我希望的還要更卡。但到第一季時，它會像 PayPal 交易一樣無縫。我們也有大量非常大型的商家與市集平台，迫切希望把 Venmo 整合為一個付款選項。

And then we obviously have business profiles, crypto capabilities, more basic financial tools, shopping tools coming into that. All of those will add to the Venmo revenue. There isn't one thing that's dominant in that they're all adding to that. And so really pleased with Venmo's growth and trajectory. And to see an acceleration in its TPV growth now 2 quarters in a row at the scale that it has, it's pretty impressive.

接著我們當然還有商家檔案、加密貨幣功能、更基礎的金融工具，以及購物工具會加入其中。所有這些都會推升 Venmo 的營收。並沒有哪一項是絕對主導的；它們都在共同貢獻。因此我們對 Venmo 的成長與走勢非常滿意。而且在它目前的規模之下，TPV 成長已連續兩季加速，這相當令人印象深刻。

We have time for one last question from Lisa Ellis of MoffettNathanson.

我們還有時間進行最後一個問題，來自 MoffettNathanson 的 Lisa Ellis。

Terrific. Dan, so you've highlighted a number of times on the call, the transformation underway with the PayPal and Venmo consumer apps to add all these new use cases, like bill payments, Pay in 4, crypto, Honey, et cetera. Can you just talk a bit more about how we should think about the operational and financial rollout of this transformation, meaning what's sort of the road map or timing of when the functionality will be rolled out? How are you going to be driving adoption? How should we think about monetization, et cetera, just as we look out over the next 12 to 18 months?

太好了。Dan，你在這通電話中多次強調 PayPal 與 Venmo 消費者 App 正在進行的轉型，加入這些新的使用情境，例如帳單支付、Pay in 4、加密貨幣、Honey 等等。你能否再多談一些，我們應該如何看待這項轉型在營運與財務上的推進與落地？也就是說，功能推出的大致路線圖或時程是什麼？你們將如何推動採用？我們又該如何看待變現等議題，尤其是展望未來 12 到 18 個月？

Yes. Lisa, good to hear your voice. Happy to do so. This is probably one of our -- not probably. This is one of our top focus areas, this building out a comprehensive and compelling digital wallet for our consumers. I don't think there's any question as we move into the digital economy that apps that provide a comprehensive suite of interlinked functionality around financial services, payment, shopping, identity management, will be an essential part of our customers' lives, I mean, a daily part of their lives.

好的。Lisa，很高興聽到你的聲音。很樂意說明。這大概是我們——不，大概不是。這就是我們最重要的聚焦領域之一：為消費者打造一個全面且具吸引力的數位錢包。我認為毫無疑問，當我們邁向數位經濟時，能提供一整套彼此互相連結的功能、涵蓋金融服務、支付、購物、身分管理的 App，將會成為客戶生活中不可或缺的一部分——我是說，會是他們日常生活的一部分。

Now with the wallet, the capabilities that we're talking about are both online and in-store. So that's sort of online, offline shopping capabilities, rewards management, being able to use rewards points, translate those to fiat to pay at any one of our merchants and also incorporate that in in-store as well.

現在談到錢包，我們所說的能力同時涵蓋線上與實體店內。因此這包括線上、線下的購物能力、回饋管理，能夠使用回饋點數，將其轉換為法幣以在我們任何一家商戶付款，並且也能把這些能力納入實體店內的使用情境。

All sorts of financial services, you mentioned a couple of them, bill pay, increasing focus on direct deposit, check cashing, savings goals, investments, PFM, and then integrating all of our Honey shopping tools, crypto capabilities, buy now, pay later and by the way, Lisa, importantly, not just putting all that functionality out into our digital wallet but creating a UX, a user experience, that enables somebody to simply and easily move from one experience to another and have each of those experiences build on each other. And so we will start to roll out bill pay this month. We will -- towards the end of the month, we'll start to roll that out. I think you can expect kind of at end of the first half this year for us to have a pretty large UX completion design in our customers' hands with a lot of functionality coming out, in my view, in the second quarter and the back half of the year.

各式各樣的金融服務——你提到其中幾項：帳單支付、更加聚焦於直接入帳（direct deposit）、支票兌現、儲蓄目標、投資、PFM（個人財務管理），然後整合我們所有的 Honey 購物工具、加密貨幣能力、「先買後付」。而且順帶一提，Lisa，很重要的是，不只是把所有功能放進我們的數位錢包，而是打造一個 UX（使用者體驗），讓使用者能夠簡單、輕鬆地從一個體驗切換到另一個體驗，並讓每個體驗彼此相互加乘。因此，我們將在本月開始推出帳單支付——大約在月底開始逐步上線。我認為你可以預期在今年上半年末，我們會把一個相當完整的大型 UX 設計交到客戶手上，並且在我看來，第二季以及下半年會有大量功能推出。

But I expect to have the predominance of what I just talked about in place by the end of next year. And as John said, we're investing behind this. I'm really pleased, as John mentioned, with the delivery and the on-time delivery and the excellence of the applications that are coming out into our market. And so expect to see a step functionality in the back half of Q2 of this year and then to build on that as we go into the rest of the year.

不過，我預期到明年年底前，我剛才談到的大部分內容都會到位。正如 John 所說，我們正在為此加大投資。我也非常高興，如 John 提到的，我們的交付進度與準時交付，以及推出到市場上的應用程式品質都非常出色。因此，預期在今年第二季下半段會看到功能的階段性提升，並在接下來的時間持續在此基礎上擴展。

Very exciting.

非常令人振奮。

Yes, it is exciting.

是的，確實令人振奮。

Okay. I want to thank everybody for all of your great questions as we really -- I'm glad we had a chance to talk about all those things and look forward to talking to each of you more in the weeks and months ahead. So thank you very much, everybody. Have a good day, and we'll talk to you soon. Bye-bye.

好的。我想感謝大家提出的所有精彩問題。我很高興我們有機會談到所有這些事情，也期待在接下來幾週與幾個月中，能與各位有更多交流。非常感謝大家。祝各位有美好的一天，我們很快再聊。再見。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛線。