PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to PayPal's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，女士們先生們。歡迎參加 PayPal 2019 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Ms. Gabrielle Rabinovitch, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，投資者關係主管 Gabrielle Rabinovitch 女士。請繼續。

Thank you, Andrew. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. Welcome to PayPal Holdings' Earnings Conference Call for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019. Joining me today on the call are Dan Schulman, our President and CEO; and John Rainey, our Chief Financial Officer and EVP, Global Customer Operations. We're providing a slide presentation to accompany our commentary. This conference call is also being webcast, and both the presentation and call are available through the Investor Relations section of our website.

謝謝你，安德魯。下午好，感謝您加入我們。歡迎參加 PayPal Holdings 2019 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的總裁兼執行長 Dan Schulman；約翰‧雷尼 (John Rainey)，我們的財務長兼全球客戶營運執行副總裁。我們將提供幻燈片演示來配合我們的評論。此次電話會議也進行了網路直播，您可以透過我們網站的投資者關係部分觀看演示和電話會議。

We will discuss some non-GAAP measures in talking about our company's performance. You can find the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the presentation accompanying this conference call. In addition, management will make forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations, forecasts and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. These statements include our guidance for the first quarter and full year 2020, our medium-term guidance and the impact of our acquisitions. Our actual results may differ materially from these statements. You can find more information about risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our results in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC and available on the Investor Relations section of our website. You should not rely on any forward-looking statements. All information in this presentation is as of today's date, January 29, 2020. We expressly disclaim any obligation to update the information.

我們將在談論我們公司的業績時討論一些非公認會計準則衡量標準。您可以在本次電話會議隨附的簡報中找到這些非 GAAP 衡量標準與最直接可比較的 GAAP 衡量標準的對帳。此外，管理階層將根據我們目前的預期、預測和假設做出前瞻性陳述，並涉及風險和不確定性。這些聲明包括我們對 2020 年第一季和全年的指導、中期指導以及收購的影響。我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。您可以在我們向SEC 提交的最新10-K 表年度報告和10-Q 表季度報告中找到有關風險、不確定性和其他可能影響我們業績的因素的更多信息，這些信息可在我們網站的投資人關係部分查看。您不應依賴任何前瞻性陳述。本簡報中的所有資訊均截至今天（2020 年 1 月 29 日）。我們明確表示不承擔任何更新資訊的義務。

With that, let me turn the call over to Dan.

接下來，讓我把電話轉給丹。

Thank you, Gabrielle, and thanks, everyone, for taking the time to join us on today's call. I'm pleased to report that PayPal had a strong quarter, ending 2019 with record results across key customer and financial metrics. Over the past year, we meaningfully improved and expanded the PayPal platform. We strengthened our value proposition for consumers and merchants, expanded our international scope and scale and announced transformative strategic acquisitions, investments and commercial agreements.

謝謝加布里埃爾，也謝謝大家抽出時間參加我們今天的電話會議。我很高興地向大家報告，PayPal 在 2019 年底季度表現強勁，關鍵客戶和財務指標均創紀錄的業績。在過去的一年裡，我們有意義地改進和擴展了 PayPal 平台。我們加強了對消費者和商家的價值主張，擴大了我們的國際範圍和規模，並宣布了變革性的策略性收購、投資和商業協議。

For the year, we delivered $17.8 billion in revenue, that's up 19% on an FX-neutral basis, adjusted for our receivables sale to Synchrony. In the fourth quarter, we generated $4.96 billion of revenue, growing 18% on an FX-neutral basis. Our strong revenue growth, combined with disciplined expense management, enabled a 28% year-over-year increase in our non-GAAP earnings per share to $3.10. Excluding net unrealized gains on our strategic investments, we delivered $2.96 of non-GAAP EPS, up 25% on a year-over-year basis. On that same basis, in Q4, we delivered $0.84 of non-GAAP EPS, growing 28%.

今年，我們實現了 178 億美元的收入，在匯率中立的基礎上成長了 19%，並根據我們向 Synchrony 的應收帳款銷售進行了調整。第四季度，我們實現了 49.6 億美元的收入，在匯率中立的基礎上成長了 18%。我們強勁的營收成長，加上嚴格的費用管理，使我們的非 GAAP 每股盈餘年增 28%，達到 3.10 美元。不包括策略性投資的未實現淨收益，我們實現了 2.96 美元的非 GAAP 每股收益，年增 25%。在此基礎上，第四季度我們實現了 0.84 美元的非 GAAP 每股收益，成長了 28%。

For 2019, our overall payment volume grew 25% on an FX-neutral basis to $712 billion. Excluding eBay, TPV grew 29% on an FX-neutral basis to $649 billion as we continue to grow market share. In Q4 alone, we processed just shy of $200 billion of TPV, a new record for us. We processed more than 12 billion transactions in the year, including nearly 3.5 billion transactions in Q4 alone. eBay's TPV continues to decline, shrinking by 4% on an FX-neutral basis. Consequently, we anticipate that eBay will be approximately 6% of our total TPV by midyear.

2019 年，在匯率中立的基礎上，我們的總支付額成長了 25%，達到 7,120 億美元。不包括 eBay，隨著我們繼續擴大市場份額，冠捷在匯率中立的基礎上成長了 29%，達到 6,490 億美元。光是在第四季度，我們就處理了接近 2000 億美元的 TPV，這是我們的新紀錄。我們全年處理了超過 120 億筆交易，其中僅第四季度就處理了近 35 億筆交易。 eBay 的 TPV 持續下降，在匯率中立的基礎上下降了 4%。因此，我們預計到年中 eBay 將占我們總 TPV 的約 6%。

We added 9.3 million net new actives in the quarter, ending the year with 305 million active accounts on our platform, up 14% year-over-year, including 24 million merchants. In 2020, we expect to add approximately 35 million net new active accounts, inclusive of our acquisitions, and this does not include any onetime impact on NNAs associated with the acquisition of Honey. I'm pleased to report that engagement continues to consistently increase. For the first time this year, engagement grew by double digits, increasing by 10% to 40.6 transactions per active account. Mobile transactions are a major driver of our growth, representing 44% of TPV. One Touch adoption is now at 199 million consumers and 14 million merchants.

本季我們淨新增 930 萬活躍帳戶，截至年底，我們平台上的活躍帳戶數為 3.05 億，年增 14%，其中包括 2,400 萬商家。到 2020 年，我們預計將增加約 3500 萬個淨新活躍帳戶，其中包括我們的收購，這不包括與收購 Honey 相關的 NNA 的任何一次性影響。我很高興地報告，參與度持續增加。今年，參與度首次實現兩位數成長，每個活躍帳戶增加 10% 至 40.6 筆交易。行動交易是我們成長的主要推動力，佔 TPV 的 44%。目前，1.99 億消費者和 1,400 萬商家採用了 One Touch。

Venmo processed $29 billion in volume for the quarter, growing 56%. And for the year, volume increased to $102 billion. We ended the year with Venmo's customer base exceeding 52 million active accounts, driving its current revenue run rate of more than $450 million. Last quarter, we announced that Venmo had signed a deal with Synchrony to provide a Venmo credit card, and I'm pleased to announce that Visa will be our exclusive network partner for this new product. We also recently announced our first ever Venmo Rewards program with select merchants for Venmo debit cardholders. These merchant-funded rewards are deposited directly into a customer's account so that they can be used in-app with merchants or transferred to a bank account or debit card, providing consumers with ease and choice. Last year, we saw brands like Netflix, Pepsi and Chipotle use Venmo payouts to reward their customers and pay them via Venmo. We are excited to introduce new monetizable value-added services to our Venmo platform over the course of 2020.

Venmo 本季處理量為 290 億美元，成長 56%。今年的交易額增至 1,020 億美元。截至年底，Venmo 的客戶群活躍帳戶數超過 5,200 萬，推動其當前收入運行率超過 4.5 億美元。上季度，我們宣布 Venmo 與 Synchrony 簽署了提供 Venmo 信用卡的協議，我很高興地宣布 Visa 將成為我們這項新產品的獨家網路合作夥伴。我們最近也與精選商家一起為 Venmo 金融卡持卡人宣布了首個 Venmo 獎勵計畫。這些由商家資助的獎勵直接存入客戶的帳戶，以便可以在商家的應用程式內使用或轉移到銀行帳戶或借記卡，為消費者提供輕鬆和選擇。去年，我們看到 Netflix、百事可樂和 Chipotle 等品牌使用 Venmo 付款來獎勵他們的客戶，並透過 Venmo 向他們付款。我們很高興在 2020 年向我們的 Venmo 平台推出新的可貨幣化加值服務。

We continue to see strong demand for our payouts capabilities enabled by our Hyperwallet acquisition. Digital payouts are attractive to multiple industries, including the insurance industry where consumers are demanding faster payments. In the quarter, we began delivering claims payments on behalf of insurance providers like Chubb Insurance, Asurion and Combined Insurance. In addition, United Airlines is now leveraging our platform to pay passengers all over the world for baggage claims. And Walmart is using our capabilities to pay merchants on its marketplace. I expect to see continued growth in our payouts products.

我們持續看到對 Hyperwallet 收購帶來的支付能力的強勁需求。數位支付對多個行業都有吸引力，包括消費者要求更快支付的保險業。本季度，我們開始代表 Chubb Insurance、Asurion 和 Combined Insurance 等保險公司提供理賠付款。此外，聯合航空現在利用我們的平台向世界各地的乘客支付行李索賠費用。沃爾瑪正在利用我們的能力向其市場上的商家付款。我預計我們的支付產品將持續成長。

Earlier this month, we closed the acquisition of Honey. The addition of Honey and its complementary capabilities to the PayPal network will significantly transform our relevance and drive engagement with our consumers and merchants at the earliest stages of their commerce journey. Our integration activities are off to a strong start. Our early joint marketing activities have already produced nearly 100,000 downloads of the Honey browser extension. And on day 1, our customers could use their PayPal credentials to log into Honey. I continue to be impressed by the caliber of the Honey team, and I couldn't be happier to welcome them to PayPal.

本月早些時候，我們完成了對 Honey 的收購。 Honey 的加入及其對 PayPal 網路的補充功能將顯著改變我們的相關性，並在消費者和商家商業旅程的最初階段推動與他們的互動。我們的整合活動有了一個好的開始。我們早期的聯合行銷活動已經為 Honey 瀏覽器擴充功能帶來了近 10 萬次下載。在第一天，我們的客戶可以使用他們的 PayPal 憑證登入 Honey。 Honey 團隊的能力給我留下了深刻的印象，我非常高興地歡迎他們加入 PayPal。

We are deepening our relationships with financial institution partners around the world. We recently announced the ability for Citibank institutional clients to make payments directly into their customers' PayPal wallets. In December, we finalized the deal with FIS, which will enable us to scale our Pay with Rewards capabilities across thousands of financial institutions in the United States. And U.S. Bank has currently integrated functionality to support both account linking and Pay with Rewards capabilities.

我們正在深化與世界各地金融機構合作夥伴的關係。我們最近宣布花旗銀行機構客戶能夠直接將付款存入其客戶的 PayPal 錢包。去年 12 月，我們與 FIS 敲定了協議，這將使我們能夠在美國數千家金融機構中擴展薪酬獎勵功能。美國銀行目前已整合了支援帳戶連結和獎勵支付功能的功能。

We continue to expand our platform capabilities around the world. We recently expanded our relationship with Uber, and we'll be processing their payments in Europe, Brazil, India and across the Middle East. In December, we also signed a commercial agreement with MercadoLibre that has the potential to drive a meaningful increase in our international scope and scale. As part of the agreement, PayPal will be made available as a payment option in the MercadoPago online checkout for people in Brazil and Mexico, which opens the door for PayPal consumers to shop at hundreds of thousands of new merchants. PayPal will also be accepted in the MercadoLibre marketplace for cross-border purchases. In return, we will offer MercadoPago as a payment method at PayPal merchants around the world, allowing approximately $50 million MercadoPago users in Brazil and Mexico to pay with their preferred digital wallet. And we will expand Xoom's presence by allowing MercadoPago users to receive remittances directly into their MercadoPago wallet. I'm pleased with our growing partnership and look forward to continued collaboration with Marcos and the MELI team.

我們繼續在全球範圍內擴展我們的平台能力。我們最近擴大了與 Uber 的關係，我們將在歐洲、巴西、印度和整個中東地區處理他們的付款。 12 月，我們還與 MercadoLibre 簽署了一項商業協議，該協議有可能推動我們的國際範圍和規模大幅成長。作為協議的一部分，PayPal 將在 MercadoPago 線上結帳中為巴西和墨西哥的人們提供支付選項，這為 PayPal 消費者在數十萬新商家購物打開了大門。 MercadoLibre 市場也將接受 PayPal 進行跨境購買。作為回報，我們將在世界各地的 PayPal 商家提供 MercadoPago 作為支付方式，允許巴西和墨西哥約 5000 萬美元的 MercadoPago 用戶使用他們首選的數位錢包進行支付。我們將透過允許 MercadoPago 用戶直接將匯款接收到他們的 MercadoPago 錢包來擴大 Xoom 的影響力。我對我們不斷發展的合作夥伴關係感到高興，並期待與 Marcos 和 MELI 團隊繼續合作。

In addition to the continued international expansion of Xoom, in Q4, we launched the ability for Xoom customers to send money to recipients in the U.S. through strategic alliances with Walmart and Euronet. Customers in the U.S. can now use Xoom to quickly send money for cash pickup, typically within minutes, in nearly 5,000 locations across the country. This is a positive step in our mission to make the movement and management of money quick, easy and affordable for everyone.

除了 Xoom 的持續國際擴張之外，在第四季度，我們還推出了透過與沃爾瑪和 Euronet 的策略聯盟，讓 Xoom 客戶向美國收款人匯款的功能。美國的客戶現在可以使用 Xoom 在全國近 5,000 個地點快速匯款以獲取現金，通常在幾分鐘內完成。這是我們實現讓每個人都能快速、輕鬆且負擔得起資金流動和管理的使命的積極一步。

In December, we closed our acquisition of GoPay, becoming the first foreign payment platform to be licensed to provide online payment services in China. This transaction has the potential to dramatically increase our total addressable market opportunity. Digital payments in China are expected to grow from $1.5 trillion to $3 trillion over the next 4 years, and the number of users is set to grow to well over 1 billion.

12月，我們完成了對GoPay的收購，成為首個獲得中國線上支付服務牌照的外國支付平台。這項交易有可能大幅增加我們的整體市場機會。未來 4 年內，中國的數位支付預計將從 1.5 兆美元成長到 3 兆美元，用戶數也將成長至超過 10 億。

Last week, we announced a wide-reaching partnership with UnionPay International. UnionPay International has issued over 130 million cards outside of Mainland China and as part of the China UnionPay group, which has over 7.5 billion cards on their network. As part of the agreement, our mutual customers will be able to add UnionPay cards to their PayPal wallet in more than 30 countries, allowing UnionPay customers to seamlessly shop at PayPal's 24 million merchants globally. In addition, China UnionPay will enable Chinese merchants to accept PayPal in person where CUP cards are accepted. Our 2 companies will collaborate to accelerate both online and off-line acceptance of PayPal for Chinese merchants. This is a landmark agreement and will have global impact for our joint customers. We look forward to partnering with other Chinese financial institutions and technology platforms to expand both cross-border and in-country digital payments.

上週，我們宣布與銀聯國際建立廣泛的合作關係。銀聯國際作為中國銀聯集團的一部分，已在中國大陸境外發行了超過 1.3 億張卡，該集團的網路上擁有超過 75 億張卡。作為協議的一部分，我們的共同客戶將能夠將銀聯卡添加到30多個國家的PayPal錢包中，從而使銀聯客戶能夠在PayPal全球2,400萬家商家無縫購物。此外，中國銀聯將支持中國商家在受理銀聯卡的地方親自接受PayPal。我們兩家公司將合作加速中國商家線上線下接受 PayPal 的進程。這是一項具有里程碑意義的協議，將對我們的共同客戶產生全球影響。我們期待與其他中國金融機構和技術平台合作，擴大跨境和國內數位支付。

Our efforts to drive social impact and create value for all of our stakeholders continues to evolve and expand. This past year saw a record volume of funds raised by the PayPal community for charity. For the full year of 2019, the PayPal community donated more than $10 billion to charity, including over $1 billion in the month of December. On Giving Tuesday, we raised a record $106 million.

我們為推動社會影響力並為所有利害關係人創造價值所做的努力不斷發展和擴大。去年，PayPal 社群為慈善事業籌集的資金創下了紀錄。 2019 年全年，PayPal 社群向慈善機構捐贈了超過 100 億美元，其中 12 月捐贈了超過 10 億美元。在「捐贈星期二」活動中，我們籌集了創紀錄的 1.06 億美元。

The world's secular trend towards digital payments and commerce continues to rapidly grow. Our total addressable market has significantly expanded with the acquisitions of Honey and GoPay and our commercial partnership with MercadoLibre. In 2020, our growth investments are focused on our recent acquisitions, growing our infrastructure in China and other international markets, Venmo monetization and our in-store point-of-sale initiatives. Our ability to drive and benefit from these trends and initiatives is reflected in our strong results and our expectations for 2020.

全球數位支付和商務的長期趨勢持續快速成長。透過收購 Honey 和 GoPay 以及與 MercadoLibre 的商業合作夥伴關係，我們的總目標市場顯著擴大。 2020 年，我們的成長投資主要集中在我們最近的收購、發展我們在中國和其他國際市場的基礎設施、Venmo 貨幣化以及我們的店內銷售點計劃。我們推動這些趨勢和舉措並從中受益的能力反映在我們強勁的業績和對 2020 年的預期中。

We are very excited about the year in front of us. Our brand reputation and trust are stronger than ever. We obviously need to execute, stay vigilant and remain steadfast customer champions. But we have our sights set high, and we aim to aggressively expand our capabilities and geographic footprint. And I'm confident that our efforts will drive our market leadership and growth over the foreseeable future.

我們對即將到來的一年感到非常興奮。我們的品牌聲譽和信任度比以往任何時候都更強。顯然，我們需要執行、保持警覺並保持堅定的客戶擁護者地位。但我們的目標很高，我們的目標是積極擴大我們的能力和地理足跡。我相信，我們的努力將在可預見的未來推動我們的市場領導地位和成長。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to John.

然後，我會將電話轉給約翰。

Thanks, Dan. I want to start off by thanking our customers, partners and employees for helping us deliver an outstanding year. And 2019 was another great year for PayPal, and I'm pleased with our team's accomplishments. The results we're reporting today demonstrate the consistent execution of our strategy to realize long-term sustainable value creation. We're entering 2020 ready to build on our momentum, focused on our key initiatives and excited about the year ahead.

謝謝，丹。首先，我要感謝我們的客戶、合作夥伴和員工幫助我們度過了出色的一年。 2019 年對 PayPal 來說又是偉大的一年，我對我們團隊的成就感到高興。我們今天報告的結果表明我們始終如一地執行我們的策略，以實現長期可持續的價值創造。進入 2020 年，我們已做好準備，鞏固發展勢頭，專注於我們的關鍵舉措，並對未來的一年感到興奮。

Now to our fourth quarter results. Revenue in the fourth quarter increased 17% on a spot basis and 18% on a currency-neutral basis to $4.96 billion. The translation effect from the stronger dollar negatively impacted revenue by $35 million. This impact was more than offset by $58 million in hedge gains. Relative to the fourth quarter of 2018, U.S. revenue grew 19% and international revenue grew 17% on a currency-neutral basis. Transaction revenue grew 18%, and revenue from other value-added services grew 14%. Strength across core PayPal, Braintree and Venmo all contributed to transaction revenue growth. Other value-added services revenue growth reflected solid performance of our credit business, offset by the lapping of interim servicing revenue from Synchrony. As a reminder, this headwind will continue through the second quarter of this year.

現在我們來看看第四季的業績。第四季營收以即期計算成長 17%，以匯率中立計算成長 18%，達到 49.6 億美元。美元走強的換算效應對收入產生了 3500 萬美元的負面影響。這一影響被 5800 萬美元的對沖收益所抵消。與 2018 年第四季相比，在貨幣中立的基礎上，美國營收成長了 19%，國際營收成長了 17%。交易收入成長18%，其他增值服務收入成長14%。核心 PayPal、Braintree 和 Venmo 的實力都促進了交易收入的成長。其他加值服務收入的成長反映了我們信貸業務的穩健表現，但被 Synchrony 的中期服務收入的下降所抵消。提醒一下，這種逆風將持續到今年第二季。

In the fourth quarter, transaction take rate was 2.27%, and total take rate was 2.49%. Compared to Q4 2018, this was a decline of 8 basis points and 9 basis points, respectively, which is the lowest level of decline we've reported. Strong P2P growth continues to be the largest driver of the year-over-year decline for both transaction and total take rate. In addition, on a sequential basis, both transaction and total take rate improved. The diversification of our business and our pricing initiatives allowed us to deliver these results.

第四季交易成交率為2.27%，總成交率為2.49%。與 2018 年第四季相比，分別下降了 8 個基點和 9 個基點，這是我們報告的最低下降水準。 P2P 的強勁成長仍然是交易量和總使用率年減的最大推動因素。此外，環比來看，成交率和總成交率均有改善。我們業務的多元化和定價措施使我們能夠取得這些成果。

Volume-based expenses increased 20% in the fourth quarter to $2.3 billion. Transaction expense was 96 basis points as a rate of TPV, consistent with the fourth quarter of 2018. Transaction loss was 15 basis points as a rate of TPV, an improvement of 3 basis points from Q4 2018. Continued improvements on our risk management capabilities contributed to the strong performance in our loss rate.

第四季基於數量的支出成長了 20%，達到 23 億美元。交易費用佔TPV 的比率為96 個基點，與2018 年第四季一致。交易損失佔TPV 的比率為15 個基點，較2018 年第四季改善3 個基點。風險管理能力的持續改善做出了貢獻我們的損失率表現強勁。

Loan losses were 4 basis points as a rate of TPV, an increase of 1 basis point from Q4 last year. This increase primarily resulted from growth in both our merchant and international consumer loan portfolios. Transaction margin dollars grew 16% to $2.7 billion in the fourth quarter. Transaction margin as a rate was 53.8%, a decline of approximately 90 basis points versus Q4 '18. Nontransaction-related expenses grew 7% versus last year and increased only $0.13 for every incremental dollar of revenue.

貸款損失佔 TPV 比率為 4 個基點，較去年第四季增加 1 個基點。這一增長主要是由於我們的商業和國際消費貸款組合的增長。第四季交易保證金成長 16%，達到 27 億美元。交易利潤率為 53.8%，與 18 年第四季相比下降了約 90 個基點。與去年相比，非交易相關費用增加了 7%，每增加一美元收入僅增加 0.13 美元。

On a non-GAAP basis, operating income in the fourth quarter grew 28% to $1.2 billion. Our operating margin was 23.6%, expanding 204 basis points from last year as we delivered leverage across all of our nontransaction-related expenses. This represents our strongest performance ever, demonstrating our sustainability to scale at a low incremental cost. Other income in the fourth quarter declined by $33 million relative to last year. Net interest expense resulting from our debt issuance in September, as well as lower net unrealized gains from our strategic investments, contributed to this result.

以非公認會計準則計算，第四季營業收入成長 28%，達到 12 億美元。我們的營業利潤率為 23.6%，比去年增加了 204 個基點，因為我們為所有非交易相關費用提供了槓桿。這代表了我們有史以來最強勁的業績，證明了我們以較低的增量成本擴展的可持續性。第四季其他收入較去年下降 3,300 萬美元。 9 月發行債券產生的淨利息支出，以及戰略投資未實現淨收益的減少，促成了這一結果。

As we disclosed in our 8-K issued on January 9, in the fourth quarter, on a per share basis, net unrealized gains contributed $0.02 to EPS versus $0.04 last year. Starting in 2020, we're updating our non-GAAP methodology to exclude the impact of gains and losses on our strategic investments. We believe this presentation will provide a better understanding of our operating performance and a more meaningful comparison of our results between periods. With this change, we no longer will issue an 8-K following quarter end disclosing the effect of net unrealized gains and losses on our results.

正如我們在 1 月 9 日發布的 8-K 中披露的那樣，第四季度，按每股計算，未實現淨收益為每股收益貢獻了 0.02 美元，而去年為 0.04 美元。從 2020 年開始，我們將更新我們的非 GAAP 方法，以排除損益對我們策略投資的影響。我們相信，本次示範將讓您更了解我們的經營業績，並對我們不同時期的業績進行更有意義的比較。透過這項變化，我們將不再在下個季度末發布 8-K 揭露未實現淨損益對我們業績的影響。

In the fourth quarter, our non-GAAP effective tax rate was 17.2% versus 17.7% last year. Non-GAAP EPS for the fourth quarter grew 24% to $0.86. Adjusting for net unrealized gains, non-GAAP EPS grew 28%.

第四季度，我們的非 GAAP 有效稅率為 17.2%，去年為 17.7%。第四季非 GAAP 每股盈餘成長 24% 至 0.86 美元。調整未實現淨收益後，非 GAAP 每股收益成長 28%。

We ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and investments of $13.6 billion. In addition, we generated more than $1 billion of free cash flow or approximately $0.22 of free cash flow for every dollar of revenue. During the quarter, we returned $305 million in capital to shareholders through share repurchases.

本季結束時，我們的現金、現金等價物和投資為 136 億美元。此外，我們還產生了超過 10 億美元的自由現金流，即每 1 美元的收入產生約 0.22 美元的自由現金流。本季度，我們透過股票回購向股東返還了 3.05 億美元的資本。

I'd now like to discuss our guidance for the full year and the first quarter. Relative to the preliminary outlook for 2020 that we provided in October, we are raising our revenue expectations. We are also raising our earnings outlook, excluding the dilutive effect of acquisitions announced in 2019. The guidance we're providing has been updated to reflect the impact from our recent acquisitions of Honey and GoPay; the adoption of CECL, the new accounting standard for recognizing credit losses; and our expectations for currency movements.

我現在想討論我們對全年和第一季的指導。相對於我們 10 月提供的 2020 年初步展望，我們正在上調收入預期。我們也上調了獲利預期，不包括 2019 年宣布的收購的稀釋影響。我們提供的指引已更新，以反映我們最近收購 Honey 和 GoPay 的影響；採用新的CECL會計準則來確認信用損失；以及我們對貨幣走勢的預期。

For the full year, we expect TPV to grow in the mid-20s percentage range. We expect to generate revenue between $20.8 billion and $21 billion. This range represents currency-neutral growth of 18% to 19%, an increase from our initial outlook of 17%. Our guidance includes about 1.5 points of growth from the acquisition of Honey at the midpoint of the range.

就全年而言，我們預計 TPV 將在 20 % 左右的百分比範圍內成長。我們預計將產生 208 億至 210 億美元的收入。此範圍代表貨幣中性成長 18% 至 19%，高於我們最初預期的 17%。我們的指導包括收購 Honey 帶來約 1.5 個百分點的成長，處於該範圍的中點。

Consistent with our preliminary outlook, this revenue guidance includes an approximate 1 point headwind to growth from the lapping of our acquisitions of iZettle and Hyperwallet as well as an approximate 1 point headwind from eBay's managed payments transition. In 2019, revenue from eBay's Marketplaces business declined 4% and represented 14% of our revenue, an approximate 300 basis point decline from 2018. Since the end of 2015, eBay's annual contribution to our revenue has consistently declined from 26% of our total to 14% today and has grown at a compound annual rate of 2%. Over the same period, the rate of growth for the rest of our business has been 22% or 10x eBay's growth rate. As a result, we remain confident in our ability to successfully navigate eBay's continued transition to its managed payments program.

與我們的初步展望一致，該收入指引包括因我們收購 iZettle 和 Hyperwallet 而帶來的約 1 個百分點的成長阻力，以及因 eBay 的託管支付轉型帶來的約 1 個百分點的阻力。 2019 年，eBay 市場業務的收入下降了4%，占我們收入的14%，比2018 年下降了約300 個基點。自2015 年底以來，eBay 對我們收入的年度貢獻持續從占我們總收入的26 % 下降到如今已增長 14%，並以 2% 的複合年增長率增長。同期，我們其他業務的成長率為 22%，是 eBay 成長率的 10 倍。因此，我們對成功引導 eBay 繼續向託管支付計劃過渡的能力充滿信心。

I'd now like to turn to our EPS guidance. On our third quarter call, we indicated that our preliminary outlook for EPS growth in 2020 was 17% to 18%. Since then, our expectations for core earnings growth have improved. Before incorporating the impact of the 2 acquisitions we recently closed, we now expect our EPS to grow between 18% and 20%. This growth rate of 18% to 20% incorporates a 1-point headwind to earnings growth from CECL while reflecting our underlying business strength. In addition, we expect $0.08 to $0.10 in dilution or about a 3-point headwind to earnings growth from our acquisitions of Honey and GoPay. As a result, we now expect non-GAAP earnings per share to grow 15% to 17% and be in the range of $3.39 to $3.46.

我現在想談談我們的 EPS 指導。在第三季電話會議上，我們表示 2020 年每股收益成長的初步預期為 17% 至 18%。自那時起，我們對核心獲利成長的預期有所改善。在納入我們最近完成的兩項收購的影響之前，我們現在預計每股收益將成長 18% 至 20%。 18% 至 20% 的成長率對 CECL 的獲利成長造成 1 個百分點的阻力，同時反映了我們的基本業務實力。此外，我們預計收購 Honey 和 GoPay 將帶來 0.08 至 0.10 美元的稀釋，或對獲利成長產生約 3 個百分點的阻力。因此，我們現在預計非 GAAP 每股盈餘將成長 15% 至 17%，介於 3.39 美元至 3.46 美元之間。

While we expect the acquisition of Honey to be dilutive this year, we expect this transaction to be accretive to earnings in 2021. Honey is an exciting addition to our platform, and this year, we will be accelerating investments to develop a truly integrated and differentiated wallet experience for our customers. We are also realizing dilution in 2020 from funding this acquisition with cash.

雖然我們預計今年收購Honey 會帶來攤薄效應，但我們預計此次交易將增加2021 年的收益。Honey 是我們平台的一個令人興奮的補充，今年，我們將加快投資，開發真正整合和差異化的平台為我們的客戶提供錢包體驗。 2020 年，我們也透過用現金為此次收購提供資金來實現稀釋。

In addition, in 2020, following our acquisition of GoPay, we're investing in our local Chinese infrastructure and capabilities and building upon our new partnership with China UnionPay to strengthen the foundation of our cross-border platform for small and medium-sized Chinese businesses and develop a cross-border shopping experience for Chinese consumers. We will also be investing to enable in-store shopping experiences for non-Chinese consumers visiting China.

此外，在 2020 年收購 GoPay 後，我們將投資於中國當地的基礎設施和能力，並在與中國銀聯的新合作夥伴關係的基礎上，加強我們為中小型企業提供跨境平台的基礎為中國消費者打造跨境購物體驗。我們還將投資為訪問中國的非中國消費者提供店內購物體驗。

I'd also like to provide some context for our expectations related to our operating margin performance. In 2019, we expanded our operating margin by approximately 160 basis points or nearly 3x the average annual rate of expansion contemplated by our medium-term guidance. In 2020, we expect our operating margin to remain essentially flat as a result of absorbing acquisition-related dilution while continuing to invest in our other key strategic initiatives. This year, as Dan just discussed, in addition to prioritizing spending on our recent acquisitions, we're also investing in Venmo, our new partnerships, international expansion and our in-store point-of-sale strategies. We expect to deliver operating margin performance consistent with the highest in our history while investing in these significant growth opportunities.

我也想為我們對營業利潤率表現的預期提供一些背景資訊。 2019 年，我們的營業利潤率擴大了約 160 個基點，即中期指導預期平均年增長率的近 3 倍。 2020 年，由於吸收了與收購相關的稀釋，同時繼續投資於我們的其他關鍵策略舉措，我們預計我們的營業利潤率將基本保持不變。今年，正如 Dan 剛才討論的那樣，除了優先考慮最近收購的支出外，我們還投資了 Venmo、新的合作夥伴關係、國際擴張和店內銷售點策略。我們期望在投資這些重大成長機會的同時，實現與歷史最高水準一致的營業利潤率表現。

We anticipate our non-GAAP effective tax rate will be between 16% and 18%. For 2020, we expect free cash flow to exceed $4 billion as we continue to generate approximately $0.20 of free cash flow for every dollar of revenue. In 2019, we returned more than $1.4 billion in cash to shareholders through stock repurchases and announced approximately $4.1 billion of acquisitions. In 2020, we will continue to balance return of capital with growth investments while maintaining an efficient capital structure. Our acquisition pipeline is healthy, and our balance sheet gives us the flexibility to be opportunistic. At the same time, we plan to continue to return cash to shareholders consistent with our stated commitment for long-term capital return.

我們預計非 GAAP 有效稅率將在 16% 至 18% 之間。 2020 年，我們預計自由現金流將超過 40 億美元，因為我們每 1 美元的收入將繼續產生約 0.20 美元的自由現金流。 2019年，我們透過股票回購向股東返還了超過14億美元現金，並宣布了約41億美元的收購。 2020年，我們將持續平衡資本回報與成長性投資，同時維持高效率的資本結構。我們的收購管道很健康，我們的資產負債表使我們能夠靈活地把握機會。同時，我們計劃繼續向股東返還現金，符合我們既定的長期資本回報承諾。

For the first quarter, we expect revenue in the range of $4.78 billion to $4.84 billion or 17% to 18% growth on a currency-neutral basis. We expect non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of $0.76 to $0.78, representing growth of 15% to 18%. Excluding the impact of acquisitions, our earnings guidance represents 19% to 22% growth. We expect our acquisitions announced in 2019 to have a more dilutive impact on earnings in the first half of 2020 than in the back half of the year. As a result, the $0.08 to $0.10 per share of expected non-GAAP earnings dilution is more heavily weighted to the first and second quarters of 2020.

我們預計第一季營收將在 47.8 億美元至 48.4 億美元之間，即在匯率中立的基礎上成長 17% 至 18%。我們預計非 GAAP 每股盈餘將在 0.76 美元至 0.78 美元之間，成長 15% 至 18%。排除收購的影響，我們的獲利預期成長 19% 至 22%。我們預計 2019 年宣布的收購對 2020 年上半年收益的稀釋影響將大於下半年。因此，預計非 GAAP 每股盈餘稀釋 0.08 美元至 0.10 美元對 2020 年第一季和第二季的影響更大。

In summary, we're pleased with our performance in 2019. We delivered strong revenue growth, our highest operating margin and record operating margin expansion and free cash flow generation. At the same time, we advanced our strategic priorities in our core and developing markets, strengthened our consumer and merchant value propositions and launched new partnerships that are expanding our total addressable market. We're committed to our medium-term financial targets and are confident that the strength of our diversified platform, flexibility of our balance sheet and execution capabilities will allow us to continue delivering value to our stakeholders.

總而言之，我們對 2019 年的業績感到滿意。我們實現了強勁的收入成長、最高的營業利潤率以及創紀錄的營業利潤率擴張和自由現金流產生。同時，我們推進了核心市場和發展中市場的策略重點，加強了我們的消費者和商家價值主張，並建立了新的合作夥伴關係，以擴大我們的整體目標市場。我們致力於實現中期財務目標，並相信我們多元化平台的實力、資產負債表的靈活性和執行能力將使我們能夠繼續為利害關係人創造價值。

With that, I'll hand it back over to the operator for questions. Thank you.

這樣，我會將其交還給操作員以供提問。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

（操作員指令）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通黃天欽的電話。

A lot of good information here. So I'll ask on the outlook, if you don't mind, just your guidance this year versus last year. Aside from Honey, how would you characterize overall visibility this year versus this time a year ago? It seems like you have more in your control but still lots of moving pieces, so would love your thoughts on visibility.

這裡有很多好資訊。因此，如果您不介意的話，我會詢問您今年與去年相比的展望。除了 Honey 之外，您如何評價今年與一年前此時的整體能見度？看起來你有更多的控制權，但仍然有很多移動的部分，所以會喜歡你對可見性的想法。

Yes. Thanks, Tien-Tsin. It's Dan. I'll start on that, and then maybe John will fill in on it. First of all, we had a strong Q4 and, actually, an even stronger back half of Q4. The holiday season was strong for us. December was strong. And frankly, we're seeing a strong January as well. And that comes from a couple of things that we actually really didn't have the year before. First of all, I think we're executing a lot better than we have for quite some time. Second, and really important because we have the visibility in this, we've seen the pricing that we talked about start to get implemented. It's implemented in a number of countries. We still have more countries to even roll that out into, but that's going exactly according to plan. We signed a number of very large deals at the end of the year. We implemented many of those in December. And we are seeing that -- those growth rates begin to kick in.

是的。謝謝田津。是丹.我將從這個開始，然後也許約翰會補充。首先，我們有一個強勁的第四季度，實際上，第四季的後半段甚至更強勁。假期對我們來說很重要。 12 月表現強勁。坦白說，我們也看到了強勁的一月份。這來自於我們前一年實際上沒有的一些事情。首先，我認為我們的執行情況比相當長一段時間以來要好得多。其次，非常重要的是，因為我們對此具有可見性，我們已經看到我們討論的定價開始實施。它已在許多國家實施。我們還有更多的國家可以將其推廣到，但這完全按照計劃進行。我們在年底簽署了許多非常大的交易。我們在 12 月實施了其中許多措施。我們看到——這些成長率開始發揮作用。

Those are deals like Paymentus that we've talked about but other very large multibillion-dollar deals as well. And so we're entering this year in really a fundamentally different place than we entered the year before, a lot of momentum. For instance, we feel very comfortable with our forecast around TPV. We're talking about TPV being in the mid-20s. That was 22% in Q4. But of that 22%, 2 -- actually, 200 basis points, I guess, was because of the lapping of iZettle. So you normalize for that, you're at 24%. A little weakness in eBay; and then we've got these big deals that are already implemented accelerating; others like Uber, to come. And we feel very comfortable with our TPV accelerating into the mid-20s. So I'd say, overall, we're pretty excited about where we're starting off the year, things that we already have in place and we have a ton of initiatives that we're excited about as well. So I don't know, John, would you add to that?

這些交易包括我們討論過的 Paymentus 之類的交易，以及其他價值數十億美元的大型交易。因此，今年我們進入的情況與前一年完全不同，勢頭強勁。例如，我們對冠捷科技的預測感到非常滿意。我們談論的是 TPV 20 多歲的情況。第四季為 22%。但在這 22% 中，我猜有 2 個——實際上是 200 個基點，是因為 iZettle 的研磨。所以你對此進行標準化，你的比例是 24%。 eBay 的一點弱點；然後我們已經加速實施這些大交易； Uber 等其他公司即將推出。我們對 TPV 加速進入 20 年代中期感到非常滿意。所以我想說，總的來說，我們對今年的開始感到非常興奮，我們已經做好了一些事情，我們也有很多讓我們興奮的舉措。所以我不知道，約翰，你可以補充一下嗎？

Yes, I'd maybe underscore a couple of points that Dan mentioned. I think what's notable, Tien-Tsin, about this year versus last year is, in particular, how we're starting off the year. There's always a certain amount of trepidation that exists about the macro economy. But I think the macro economy was maybe a little wobblier last year. And we certainly enjoyed, I think, a better holiday season this period as we looked at the month of December, even going into January, and so we're starting off on the right start. But also, I'd underscore the point he mentioned around execution. We recognize that we have a pretty precious opportunity here at PayPal when you combine the secular tailwinds of our business with the incredible assets that we have when you look at our portfolio of products. And it's incumbent upon us to execute. And I think the team is executing as well now as they ever have. So I think that gives us more confidence than -- on a relative basis versus last year.

是的，我可能會強調丹提到的幾點。我認為，天進，今年與去年相比，特別值得注意的是我們如何開始這一年。人們對宏觀經濟總是存在著一定程度的恐懼。但我認為去年宏觀經濟可能有點不穩定。我認為，從 12 月開始，甚至到 1 月，我們確實享受了一個更好的假期，所以我們有了一個正確的開始。而且，我還要強調他提到的關於執行的觀點。我們認識到，當您將我們業務的長期順風與我們擁有的令人難以置信的資產（當您查看我們的產品組合時）結合起來時，我們在 PayPal 擁有非常寶貴的機會。我們有責任去執行。我認為團隊現在的執行力一如既往。所以我認為，與去年相比，這給了我們更多的信心。

And our next question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 James Faucette。

I wanted to touch on -- you touched on a lot of different incremental market opportunities, but I want to touch on Venmo and the efforts to continue to develop that as a separate brand. Can you talk a little bit about kind of what the objectives are for growing Venmo monetization during 2020 and beyond and how we should be measuring those? And I guess, kind of dovetailed with that, now that Visa owns Plaid, it seems like -- just wondering how that may impact the ability to grow Venmo and some of these other ancillary services, whether it be internationally, et cetera.

我想談談——您談到了許多不同的增量市場機會，但我想談談 Venmo 以及繼續將其發展為獨立品牌的努力。您能否談談 2020 年及以後 Venmo 貨幣化成長的目標是什麼，以及我們應該如何衡量這些目標？我想，與此相吻合的是，現在 Visa 擁有 Plaid，似乎只是想知道這可能會如何影響 Venmo 和其他一些輔助服務的發展能力，無論是國際服務還是其他服務。

Yes. James, thanks for the question. We continued to be pleased every quarter with the performance of Venmo. Even as it's gotten larger, we've seen strong net new actives. We've got 52 million now at year-end. What we said, we thought Venmo would wind up with over 100 billion of TPV, and it wound up at 102 billion. It's up about 60% for the year. Exited, I think, at about a 56% growth rate. Its revenue run rate right now is over $450 million. And as we're getting that scale on the revenue side, we're beginning to see losses reduce as well each year. So we kind of have a line of sight to when breakeven is and when this starts to actually turn profitable as well. We don't want to slow down its growth at all. We want to keep enabling Venmo to grow as rapidly as possible, but we're really pleased with this trajectory. And I expect to see good revenue growth, continued strong, strong revenue growth on the Venmo side.

是的。詹姆斯，謝謝你的提問。每個季度我們都對 Venmo 的表現感到滿意。即使它變得更大，我們也看到了強勁的淨新活動。截至年底，我們已經有 5,200 萬。我們曾說過，我們原以為 Venmo 最終會擁有超過 1,000 億的 TPV，但最終卻達到了 1,020 億。今年上漲了約60%。我認為，退出的成長率約為 56%。目前其營收運行率超過 4.5 億美元。隨著我們在收入方面達到這樣的規模，我們開始看到損失也逐年減少。因此，我們對何時達到損益平衡以及何時開始真正實現獲利有一定的了解。我們根本不想放慢它的成長速度。我們希望繼續讓 Venmo 盡可能快速地發展，但我們對目前的發展軌跡感到非常滿意。我預計 Venmo 方面將看到良好的收入成長，持續強勁的收入成長。

We're adding new capabilities all the time. Debit is continuing to expand. We're going to put a big emphasis on Pay with Venmo. There's a lot of work going on around that right now because we think that's a very big opportunity that we did not take as much advantage of last year as we probably could have. As I mentioned, we are going to be developing a credit card. That was a very competitive process, with a number of issuers looking to work with us on that. It's very competitive on the network side, too. So we're really pleased with the economics around that. You'll see us add things like -- just like goods and services. Goods and services is one of the biggest money makers on the PayPal P2P side. We're going to add that into the Venmo side. And there are a number of other monetizable services that you'll see come out that we'll reveal in good time as they're introduced.

我們一直在添加新功能。借方規模持續擴大。我們將專注於使用 Venmo 進行支付。目前圍繞這個問題正在進行大量工作，因為我們認為這是一個非常大的機會，但我們去年沒有充分利用這個機會。正如我所提到的，我們將開發信用卡。這是一個競爭非常激烈的過程，許多發行人都希望與我們合作。在網路方面也非常有競爭力。所以我們對這方面的經濟效益非常滿意。您會看到我們添加諸如商品和服務之類的東西。商品和服務是 PayPal P2P 方面最大的賺錢來源之一。我們將把它添加到 Venmo 方面。您還會看到許多其他可貨幣化服務的出現，我們將在推出這些服務時及時揭露。

In terms of Plaid, we've worked quite closely with Plaid in terms of using Plaid to integrate into bank accounts of different banks. We are working sometimes with some of the larger banks to integrate directly and -- with Plaid really for quite a number of the banks and really for that long tail. We were really happy with the acquisition of Plaid by Visa. We've worked obviously very, very closely with Visa and Mastercard and the other networks but very closely with Visa. We're an investor in Plaid so we know them quite well. And I think the security enhancements that Visa will do on top of the Plaid network will have the banks more comfortable in utilizing Plaid. Visa, obviously, has a tremendous global scale. And as you saw on the Plaid announcement from Visa, I was one of the folks quoted on that because we really look forward to working with Visa to see how we can take advantage of this joint platform now that they own Plaid. And there could be a lot of different opportunities as a result of that. I hope that answers -- anything else, John?

在Plaid方面，我們與Plaid合作非常密切，並利用Plaid整合不同銀行的銀行帳戶。我們有時會與一些較大的銀行合作，直接整合格子圖案，這確實適用於相當多的銀行，而且確實適用於長尾。我們對 Visa 收購 Plaid 感到非常高興。顯然，我們與 Visa 和萬事達卡以及其他網路的合作非常非常密切，但與 Visa 的合作也非常密切。我們是 Plaid 的投資者，所以我們對他們非常了解。我認為 Visa 將在 Plaid 網路之上進行的安全增強將使銀行更輕鬆地使用 Plaid。顯然，Visa 擁有龐大的全球規模。正如您在 Visa 的 Plaid 公告中看到的那樣，我是其中引用的人士之一，因為我們非常期待與 Visa 合作，看看我們如何利用這個聯合平台，因為他們擁有 Plaid。因此可能會有許多不同的機會。我希望這能得到答案──還有什麼嗎，約翰？

No. Thanks for the question, James.

不，謝謝你的提問，詹姆斯。

And our next question comes from the line of Bryan Keane with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的布萊恩‧基恩 (Bryan Keane)。

John, I was just hoping to get a clarification on the TPV. The FX-neutral growth dropped from 27% in 3Q to 22% in 4Q, so I just want to understand that delta. But probably even more importantly is the walk or reacceleration to the mid-20% going into this year. So I know -- I'm not sure how much Honey is a factor there or the Uber, UnionPay, MELI deals, maybe you could give us a walk on how to get back to that mid-20s TPV.

約翰，我只是希望得到有關 TPV 的澄清。匯率中立成長從第三季的 27% 下降到第四季的 22%，所以我只想了解這個增量。但可能更重要的是今年將邁向或重新加速到 20% 左右。所以我知道——我不確定Honey在多大程度上是其中的一個因素，或者Uber、銀聯、MELI交易，也許你可以告訴我們如何回到20年代中期的TPV。

Sure, Bryan. So it's good to speak with you. So if you look at our TPV, whether you look at overall or international, the biggest single driver of the decline is related to the lapping of the iZettle acquisition. In fact, if you just look at international TPV, the entirety of that 4-point decline is attributable to iZettle. But looking at TPV in total, there are some other factors, but one is obviously eBay. We saw about a point decline related to eBay. And if you sort of decompose that a little bit, even look at our transactions and you look at the various parts of our business, the transactions related to eBay declined 6% for us in the quarter. And so this has been something that we talked about. The next year will begin that period where we will transition away from that. But we're still seeing the rest of our business grow quite well.

當然，布萊恩。所以很高興與你交談。因此，如果你看看我們的冠捷科技，無論是整體還是國際，下降的最大單一驅動因素與 iZettle 收購的失敗有關。事實上，如果你只看國際冠捷科技，這 4 個百分點的下降全部歸因於 iZettle。但從整體來看，冠捷科技還有一些其他因素，但其中一個顯然是eBay。我們看到 eBay 的積分有所下降。如果你稍微分解一下，甚至看看我們的交易，看看我們業務的各個部分，你會發現本季與 eBay 相關的交易下降了 6%。這就是我們討論的事情。明年將開始我們將擺脫這段時期的時期。但我們仍然看到我們的其他業務成長得相當不錯。

And so as we look into 2020, there are a number of things that will bridge that back to the mid-20s. Part of it is just the acceleration we're seeing in the business right now, as Dan alluded to, in the December, January time frame. But we've got international expansion going on next year. We've got some work being done with large merchants. You know that we're ramping up with Paymentus. And then other parts of our business that we're emphasizing more like recurring payments, subscriptions, bill pay that give us confidence that we'll be able to achieve that mid-20s TPV number even in a period where we are transitioning away from eBay. And I think it's worth mentioning -- and doing it while expanding operating margins in 2019 and giving us the latitude to make the investments that we need in 2020 to continue this trend of mid-20s TPV growth into the future.

因此，當我們展望 2020 年時，有很多事情可以將這段時期帶回 20 年代中期。部分原因是我們現在看到的業務加速發展，正如 Dan 所提到的，在 12 月、1 月的時間範圍內。但明年我們將進行國際擴張。我們正在與大型商家進行一些工作。您知道我們正在大力發展 Paymentus。然後我們更強調的業務的其他部分，例如定期付款、訂閱、帳單支付，讓我們有信心即使在我們從 eBay 轉型的時期，我們也能夠實現 20 多歲的 TPV 數字。我認為值得一提的是，在這樣做的同時，我們在2019 年擴大了營業利潤率，並為我們提供了在2020 年進行所需投資的自由度，以將這種20 年代中期TPV 增長的趨勢延續到未來。

Yes. I'd just add a little bit onto what John said. What probably pleased me the most about Q4 is to see, coming out of it, the reacceleration of a lot of our core trends. Our core business started to accelerate. Braintree, even though it's gotten larger and larger, I'll bet its growth rate will be larger than it was this year going forward. We know what deals we have in place, and we know we've got, I would say, quite good visibility into what our TPV looks like. So we're very comfortable with that projection on that, and we're seeing it in our trend lines.

是的。我只是在約翰所說的基礎上補充一點。第四季最讓我高興的可能是看到我們的許多核心趨勢重新加速。我們的核心業務開始加速。布倫特里，儘管它變得越來越大，但我敢打賭，未來它的成長率將比今年更大。我們知道我們有哪些交易，而且我想說，我們知道我們對我們的 TPV 的情況有很好的了解。因此，我們對這一預測感到非常滿意，並且我們在趨勢線上看到了這一點。

And our next question comes from the line of Lisa Ellis with MoffettNathanson.

我們的下一個問題來自 Lisa Ellis 和 MoffettNathanson 的對話。

A question on China, now that you've successfully acquired the majority stake of GoPay and then signed the more recent expanded agreement with CUP, could you just provide a bit of color on your overall market entry strategy to the domestic market there? Meaning are you more focused on, say, building out the presence of the PayPal wallet as a competitor to some of the local digital wallets? Or are you more focused on Braintree and building out broader payment processing? Could you give us a little bit of color there?

關於中國的問題，既然您已經成功收購了 GoPay 的多數股權，並與中國銀聯簽署了最近的擴展協議，您能否就您進入中國國內市場的整體市場進入策略提供一些資訊？這意味著您是否更專注於將 PayPal 錢包打造為一些本地數位錢包的競爭對手？或者您更關注 Braintree 並建立更廣泛的支付處理？你能給我們一點顏色嗎？

Yes. Sure. I'll take that, and then John can do that. Lisa, the first idea that we had working with the PBOC is people now need to have a legal basis to have a payments license inside China to provide both cross-border and domestic payments capability. We worked over the last several years closely with PBOC, and we invested a lot of dollars and resources into our compliance and risk management efforts across the business. So not only do we have a close relationship with PBOC but now with the regulators around the world.

是的。當然。我會接受，然後約翰就可以做到。麗莎，我們與中國人民銀行合作的第一個想法是，人們現在需要有法律依據才能在中國境內獲得支付許可證，以提供跨境和國內支付能力。過去幾年，我們與中國人民銀行密切合作，並在整個業務的合規和風險管理工作中投入了大量資金和資源。因此，我們不僅與中國人民銀行有著密切的關係，而且現在與世界各地的監管機構也有著密切的關係。

That legal basis allows us to look at cross-border and work very closely with multinational that have established shop in China. We're one of the few now platforms where that international payments traffic can go over. We also now have the ability to work inside of China with either folks like CUP, other tech platforms, financial institutions inside China to link their cards into our wallet so Chinese consumers can use our platform to do purchases at our 24 million merchants outside of China.

這項法律基礎使我們能夠專注於跨境業務，並與在中國設立分支機構的跨國公司密切合作。我們是現在為數不多的可以進行國際支付流量的平台之一。我們現在也能夠在中國境內與銀聯、其他科技平台、中國境內的金融機構等機構合作，將他們的銀行卡連結到我們的錢包中，以便中國消費者可以使用我們的平台在中國境外的2,400 萬家商戶進行購物。

One of the most exciting things that we have, though, going on because as -- is the agreement that we have with UnionPay International and China UnionPay is really a landmark arrangement. I mean inside China, China UnionPay is the network. It's the equivalent of deals that we might have struck with Visa, Mastercard, Discover and Amex, all in one. It's that significant in terms of a player. And obviously, we have very close relationships with the banks, and we believe that we can start linking their payment instruments into our wallet. And China UnionPay and PayPal will be looking to expand acceptance of the PayPal wallet with Chinese merchants, and that will enable also travelers coming into China to be able to use PayPal Wallet to purchase.

不過，最令人興奮的事情之一是我們正在發生的事情，因為我們與銀聯國際和中國銀聯達成的協議確實是一項具有里程碑意義的安排。我的意思是在中國境內，中國銀聯就是網路。這相當於我們與 Visa、Mastercard、Discover 和 Amex 達成的交易合而為一。對於一個球員來說，這是非常重要的。顯然，我們與銀行有著非常密切的關係，我們相信我們可以開始將他們的支付工具連接到我們的錢包。中國銀聯和 PayPal 將尋求擴大中國商家對 PayPal 錢包的接受程度，這將使來中國的遊客也能夠使用 PayPal 錢包進行購物。

And as you know, Lisa, probably better than anybody on this call, if you're going to be buying things inside China, it is with your mobile phone, it is with QR codes. And if you're a visitor coming in, it's difficult to start to do those purchases. And you'll now be able to use your PayPal account to go and do that. Again, this will take some time to develop and to implement, but that is our vision. And I would also say in our conversations with some of the key players inside of China, other capabilities on our platform like full-stack processing, they're interested in utilizing those capabilities and working with merchants as well.

如你所知，麗莎，可能比這次電話會議上的任何人都清楚，如果你要在中國境內買東西，那就用你的手機，用二維碼。如果您是進來的訪客，則很難開始進行這些購買。現在您可以使用您的 PayPal 帳戶來執行此操作。同樣，這需要一些時間來開發和實施，但這是我們的願景。我還要說，在我們與中國境內的一些主要參與者的對話中，我們平台上的其他功能（例如全端處理）他們也有興趣利用這些功能並與商家合作。

So it's a relatively comprehensive set of opportunities we have. I know some folks believe -- because, obviously, the strong positions that Ali and WeChat have inside the company, wondering how much opportunity. This is an explosive market. We're going to be working hand-in-hand with key Chinese players inside the market, give strength in cross-border, and we think the combination of that offers a significant opportunity for us. Again, this will play out over time. But I have to say we're pretty excited in investing against this opportunity.

所以這是我們擁有的一套相對全面的機會。我知道有些人相信──因為，顯然，阿里和微信在公司內部擁有強大的地位，想知道有多少機會。這是一個爆炸性的市場。我們將與市場上的主要中國參與者攜手合作，增強跨境實力，我們認為這兩者的結合為我們提供了重要的機會。同樣，這將隨著時間的推移而發揮作用。但我不得不說，我們對利用這個機會進行投資感到非常興奮。

Lisa, I'd add I think a couple of points. It is a significant investment that we are managing in 2020, and it will carry into 2021, but it's also a significant opportunity. Just the estimates that I see is, by next year, China will be 40% of worldwide cross-border TPV. And this is a market where we have roughly 1% penetration into their 0.5 billion digital users, and you compare that to our core markets where we're significantly penetrated. If we can turn that 1% into 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, that's a big opportunity for us.

麗莎，我想補充幾點。這是我們在 2020 年管理的一項重大投資，並將持續到 2021 年，但這也是一個重大機會。據我估計，到明年，中國將佔全球跨境TPV的40%。在這個市場，我們對 5 億數位用戶的滲透率約為 1%，您可以將其與我們滲透率顯著的核心市場進行比較。如果我們能把這1%變成2​​%、3%、4%、5%，這對我們來說是一個很大的機會。

But I think one thing I'd want to emphasize around this investment is the things that we're doing in China and the way that we're investing there, it's a scalable solution for other markets. So we're approaching this as if there will be other opportunities where we can have a much more prominent presence in those markets versus kind of dabbling in some of these markets like we do today without our full product. And so we're taking a very long-term perspective and investing appropriately given the significance of the opportunity.

但我認為圍繞這項投資我想強調的一件事是我們在中國所做的事情以及我們在那裡投資的方式，這是針對其他市場的可擴展解決方案。因此，我們正在解決這個問題，就好像還有其他機會，我們可以在這些市場中擁有更突出的影響力，而不是像我們今天在沒有完整產品的情況下涉足其中一些市場。因此，考慮到這個機會的重要性，我們採取非常長遠的眼光並進行適當的投資。

Our next question comes from the line of Darrin Peller with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的達林‧佩勒 (Darrin Peller)。

Look, it's good to see your confidence in TPV growth being mid-20s again for the year. I assume a part of that is engagement. Engagement, obviously, did well this quarter. It was up 10%. It accelerated. Just I'd love to hear more about the drivers of that, how sustainable that is. Do you expect that 10% growth rate to either stay the same or get better? And then when we think about Honey, a big part of our thesis on Honey is that the flywheel effect could help that even more. Can you just touch on the opportunity there as well?

看，很高興看到您對今年 TPV 成長的信心再次達到 20 多歲。我認為其中一部分是參與。顯然，本季的參與度表現良好。上漲了 10%。它加速了。我只是想了解更多關於其驅動因素的信息，以及其可持續性如何。您預計 10% 的成長率會保持不變還是會有所改善？然後，當我們想到蜂蜜時，我們關於蜂蜜的論文的一個重要部分是飛輪效應可以提供更多幫助。您能談談那裡的機會嗎？

Yes. Darrin, it's Dan. Thanks for that question. I think you know from talking to us that engagement is one of the most important drivers for us, and we are very focused on it. When I started some -- almost 6 years ago now, we were at 17x a year. We're at 41 right now. But look, our goal, and we realize that this is aspirational, is for somebody to use PayPal or Venmo every single day. That is our goal, is to have daily engagement with that. We have a long ways to go before we get there.

是的。達林，我是丹。謝謝你提出這個問題。我想您從與我們的交談中知道，參與度是我們最重要的驅動因素之一，我們非常關注它。當我開始做一些事情時——大約 6 年前，我們的年增長率為 17 倍。我們現在41歲了。但看，我們的目標是讓人們每天使用 PayPal 或 Venmo，我們意識到這是一個理想的目標。這就是我們的目標，就是每天參與其中。在我們到達那裡之前，我們還有很長的路要走。

Honey, we think, significantly increases our engagement with consumers. It allows us to be more towards the beginning of the shopping journey, more towards the intent piece of this. The great thing is that 1/3 of all commerce transactions start with some sort of trigger-based event, whether that be a promotion or some kind of deal, and Honey enables us to take full advantage of those trigger-based type of capabilities. And Honey is not just coupons, it's far from it. It's a mobile shopping assistant. It's an offers platform. It provides rewards. It's price tracking tools and alerts. They're droplist and wish list, that kind of thing. And so we think -- and by the way, the Honey team had already saved, last year alone, its customers $1 billion of opportunity on products and services. And so we think there's a lot of opportunity for engagement and scaling of that Honey app as we integrate it into the PayPal and Venmo apps.

我們認為，蜂蜜可以顯著增加我們與消費者的互動。它使我們能夠更接近購物旅程的開始，更接近其中的意圖。最棒的是，1/3 的商業交易都是從某種基於觸發器的事件開始的，無論是促銷還是某種交易，Honey 使我們能夠充分利用這些基於觸發器的功能。 Honey 不僅僅是優惠券，它還遠非如此。這是一個行動購物助手。這是一個優惠平台。它提供獎勵。它是價格追蹤工具和警報。它們是下拉清單和願望清單之類的東西。所以我們認為——順便說一句，光是去年，Honey 團隊就已經為客戶節省了 10 億美元的產品和服務機會。因此，我們認為，當我們將 Honey 應用程式整合到 PayPal 和 Venmo 應用程式中時，它有很多參與和擴展的機會。

But that's only one part of what we're thinking about in terms of engagement. We talked about Paymentus and a lot of what we -- people think about Paymentus as the full stack integration that we're doing with them. And -- but we're also going to be implementing bill pay capabilities into our consumer apps. Bill pay is obviously another form of engagement. John mentioned, recurring payments, whether it be your Spotify, Hulu, Disney, any of a number of recurring payment streams where we can make it simple and easy for you to pay that. If your credit card expires, we'll automatically update it. You don't have to keep pulling that out. And so we're going to do a ton around that. And one of the big areas of opportunity for us is starting to move into the off-line space.

但這只是我們在參與方面考慮的一部分。我們討論了 Paymentus 以及我們——人們認為 Paymentus 是我們正在與他們進行的全棧整合的許多內容。而且，我們還將在我們的消費者應用程式中實現帳單支付功能。帳單支付顯然是另一種參與形式。 John 提到，定期付款，無論是 Spotify、Hulu、Disney，還是許多定期付款流中的任何一個，我們都可以讓您輕鬆輕鬆地付款。如果您的信用卡過期，我們會自動更新。你不必一直把它拉出來。所以我們將圍繞著這個做很多事情。對我們來說，最大的機會領域之一就是開始進入線下領域。

10%, 12% of commerce is done online and mobile, that's obviously growing rapidly. But you look at the tremendous opportunity around the world, and even here in the United States, beginning to move into off-line through things like whether it be iZettle capabilities on the merchant side; whether it be through all the cards, and we're a major issuer of cards right now tied into your PayPal account; or through QR codes, which we are already experimenting with. And if you look inside your PayPal app or your Venmo app, you'll see prominently displayed a scan capability or the ability to show your own QR code to be scanned by a merchant. And we have the wherewithal in all Android phones, but not Apple phones yet, to be able to use the NFC chip to be able to do tap-to-pay capabilities. And so that will be another big thing that we'll be investing in this year, all around driving engagement.

10%、12% 的商務是透過線上和行動裝置完成的，這顯然正在快速成長。但你會看到世界各地的巨大機遇，甚至在美國，也開始透過諸如 iZettle 在商業方面的能力等方式進入線下；無論是透過所有卡，我們是目前與您的 PayPal 帳戶綁定的卡的主要發卡機構；或者透過 QR 碼，我們已經在嘗試這種方式。如果您查看 PayPal 應用程式或 Venmo 應用程式內部，您會看到顯著顯示的掃描功能或顯示您自己的二維碼以供商家掃描的功能。我們在所有 Android 手機（但還沒有 Apple 手機）中都擁有足夠的資金，能夠使用 NFC 晶片來實現觸碰支付功能。因此，這將是我們今年投資的另一件大事，圍繞著提高參與度。

And the big thing about engagement, if you think about net new actives, when you get to be the scale that we are now with 305 million people on our platform, every time you start to improve that engagement, churn comes down as well, and lifetime value starts to go up. And so this can be a real flywheel for us, and we are investing heavily in our engagement activities. And I would expect to see good engagement growth.

關於參與度的重要一點是，如果你考慮淨新活躍用戶，當你達到我們現在平台上擁有 3.05 億用戶的規模時，每次你開始提高參與度時，客戶流失率也會下降，並且終生價值開始上升。因此，這對我們來說可能是一個真正的飛輪，我們正在大力投資我們的參與活動。我希望看到參與度的良好成長。

And we have time for one last question from David Togut with Evercore.

我們還有時間回答 Evercore 的 David Togut 的最後一個問題。

Bridging to Darrin's question, if you could perhaps expand upon integration plans and priorities for Honey Science. And then just as a quick follow-up, now that you own Honey for a few weeks, any updated thoughts on capital allocation priorities between share repurchase and further acquisitions.

回答達林的問題，您是否可以擴展蜂蜜科學的整合計劃和優先事項。然後，作為一個快速的後續行動，現在您已經擁有 Honey 幾週了，關於股票回購和進一步收購之間的資本分配優先事項的任何最新想法。

David, I'll start with the last part of your question and let Dan talk a little bit about some of the integration plans. What we're -- we don't anticipate changing our capital allocation priorities going forward. And as a reminder, that's spending about 40% to 50% of our free cash flow towards returning -- buying back stock, returning cash to shareholders and then $1 billion to $3 billion per year in acquisitions. Again, I'd point to the cash generation of our business. And I think that gives us, in some ways, a competitive advantage versus the other players in the landscape that we compete with because we have the opportunity to go out and acquire companies and acquire capabilities as well as invest internally as well as return cash to shareholders. And many times, things that we want to go after inorganically allow us to be faster to market or to provide capabilities that we maybe think are better than others. And so we'll continue to be acquisitive, we'll continue to return cash to shareholders and we'll continue to invest in ourselves.

David，我將從你問題的最後一部分開始，讓 Dan 談談一些整合計劃。我們的情況是－我們預計未來不會改變我們的資本配置優先事項。提醒一下，我們將大約 40% 到 50% 的自由現金流用於回報——回購股票，向股東返還現金，然後每年 10 億到 30 億美元用於收購。我再次強調我們業務的現金產生能力。我認為，在某種程度上，這給了我們相對於我們競爭領域中的其他參與者的競爭優勢，因為我們有機會出去收購公司、獲得能力、內部投資以及將現金返還給我們。股東。很多時候，我們想要無機地追求的東西使我們能夠更快地進入市場或提供我們可能認為比其他人更好的功能。因此，我們將繼續進行收購，我們將繼續向股東返還現金，我們將繼續投資自己。

And David, let me go and -- but before I answer that, operator, I think we have time for one more question after this, so maybe we'll just keep the line open for one more additional question.

大衛，讓我走，但在我回答之前，接線員，我想我們還有時間再問一個問題，所以也許我們會保持電話暢通，再回答一個問題。

So a quick update on Honey. First of all, I said this in my opening remarks, I want to emphasize that the caliber of that Honey team is extraordinary. They're great product engineers. They react extraordinarily quickly. When we acquired Xoom, admittedly, that was a number of years ago and our tech stack did not have the whole of the service-oriented architecture that we have today, but we were able -- with Xoom, it took us something like 6 to 9 months to integrate log-in with PayPal onto the Xoom app. With Honey, day #1, PayPal customers could log in with their credentials right onto the Honey app. Day #1, we were doing cross-marketing together. We have a full plan over the course of the year, by quarter, on exactly functionality that we are integrating together.

所以關於蜂蜜的快速更新。首先，我在開場白中就說了這一點，我想強調的是，Honey團隊的能力是非凡的。他們是偉大的產品工程師。他們的反應非常快。誠然，當我們收購Xoom 時，那是很多年前的事了，我們的技術堆疊還沒有我們今天所擁有的整個面向服務的架構，但我們能夠——透過Xoom，我們花了大約6 個小時的時間才實現了這一點。9 個月將 PayPal 登入整合到 Xoom 應用程式中。借助 Honey，第一天，PayPal 客戶可以使用其憑證直接登入 Honey 應用程式。第一天，我們一起進行交叉行銷。我們對全年、按季度、我們正在整合的確切功能有一個完整的計劃。

The big thing for us is to integrate Honey into our mobile apps. We have significant scale on those mobile apps. And it's a relatively heavy engineering lift, but we are looking at that in the back half of this year. But there are a host of payment capabilities that we will integrate into the Honey app going forward that are payment capabilities, credit-type capabilities. And so we've got a full integration plan in place. I'm pretty pleased with the execution against that. As John mentioned, our execution capabilities are humming along pretty well right now. And I do think the combination of Honey and PayPal is a very, very strong one. I think we can enhance the ways we serve both consumers and merchants.

對我們來說最重要的事情是將 Honey 整合到我們的行動應用程式中。我們在這些行動應用程式上擁有巨大的規模。這是一個相對繁重的工程升降機，但我們將在今年下半年考慮這一點。但是，我們將在未來將許多支付功能整合到 Honey 應用程式中，包括支付功能、信用類型功能。因此，我們已經制定了完整的整合計劃。我對針對這一點的執行感到非常滿意。正如約翰所提到的，我們的執行能力現在進展得很好。我確實認為 Honey 和 PayPal 的結合是非常非常強大的。我認為我們可以加強為消費者和商家提供服務的方式。

Look, merchants who are looking to us for full solutions right now are looking to our products to basically increase their sales in a world of digital commerce. And Honey is a big tool set for that, and we are excited about working with not just the 30,000 merchants they have today but pretty dramatically accelerating that. And obviously, it drives engagement and savings for consumers. It enables us to move beyond checkout. We can enable personalized, timely, relevant offers for consumers and become a highly value-added partner to our merchants. So we're quite excited about it, pleased with the integration so far. A lot to do, but we're very focused on it.

看，現在向我們尋求完整解決方案的商家正在尋求我們的產品來基本上增加他們在數位商務世界中的銷售額。 Honey 是一個大型工具集，我們很高興不僅與他們今天擁有的 30,000 名商家合作，而且還大大加快了這一進程。顯然，它可以提高消費者的參與度並節省開支。它使我們能夠超越結帳的範圍。我們可以為消費者提供個人化、及時、相關的優惠，並成為商家的高附加價值合作夥伴。所以我們對此感到非常興奮，對迄今為止的整合感到滿意。有很多事情要做，但我們非常專注。

And our last question comes from the line of Heath Terry with Goldman Sachs.

我們的最後一個問題來自希思·特里（Heath Terry）與高盛的對話。

I know you've talked a lot about China and some of the other bigger initiatives in 2020 already, but can we step back and just talk about -- and maybe even prioritize sort of where those investment priorities in 2020 fall, and the incremental costs that you see associated with them, where those fall in the guidance and then, as we look out over time, sort of the ability that you see to sustain operating margin expansion over time as you take on those incremental costs?

我知道您已經談論了很多關於中國和 2020 年其他一些更大舉措的問題，但我們是否可以退後一步，談談——甚至可能優先考慮 2020 年這些投資優先事項的重點以及增量成本您認為與它們相關的內容，這些內容屬於指導範圍，然後，當我們隨著時間的推移觀察時，您認為隨著時間的推移，當您承擔這些增量成本時，維持營業利潤率擴張的能力是什麼？

Sure. Heath, this is John, I'll tackle that. Well, it's not a comprehensive list. I would say a couple of things that stand out in terms of our investment priorities for 2020: one would be the consumer value proposition, and a sub-bullet -- or sub-bullets underneath that are Honey as well as what we're doing with expanding our off-line point-of-sale offerings. So that's a big investment priority. Also, Venmo is a big investment priority. And I'd also throw in there international expansion. All of those -- and international expansion includes China. So all of those things are significant cost and really are of a significant magnitude that, absent that, we'd be expanding operating margins again next year.

當然。希思，這是約翰，我來解決這個問題。嗯，這不是一個完整的清單。我想說的是，就我們2020 年的投資優先事項而言，有幾件事是突出的：一是消費者價值主張，還有一個子項目——或者下面的子項目，即Honey 以及我們正在做的事情擴大我們的線下銷售點產品。所以這是一個很大的投資優先事項。此外，Venmo 也是一個重要的投資重點。我還會考慮國際擴張。所有這些——以及國際擴張都包括中國。因此，所有這些都是巨大的成本，而且確實非常重要，如果沒有這些，我們明年將再次擴大營業利潤。

But I'll point you to a number that I think maybe can help direct you to how to think about our long-term capability to expand operating margin. So in the quarter, if you looked at our incremental operating margin, so the incremental growth in operating income divided by the incremental revenue, was roughly 35%. And I think that's a fantastic number and one that has really been pretty consistent throughout the year but at a much higher level than what it's been in previous years. And this is the point that I continue to go back to about our ability to grow our platform at a low incremental cost. And if we can continue to generate the type of revenue growth that we have and do it at a low marginal cost that results in incremental operating margins north of 30%, then I'm confident we're going to create a lot of shareholder value here. And I think that's a good way to think about our business long term.

但我會向您指出一個數字，我認為這些數字也許可以幫助指導您如何考慮我們擴大營業利潤率的長期能力。因此，在本季度，如果你看一下我們的增量營業利潤率，那麼營業收入的增量成長除以增量收入，大約是 35%。我認為這是一個了不起的數字，全年都非常穩定，但比前幾年的水平要高得多。這就是我繼續回顧的一點，即我們以較低的增量成本發展我們的平台的能力。如果我們能夠繼續實現現有的收入成長，並以較低的邊際成本實現這一目標，從而實現營業利潤率超過 30%，那麼我相信我們將創造大量股東價值這裡。我認為這是長遠考慮我們業務的好方法。

Yes. And I'd just add to that. I mean I think about our guidance for 2020, this is the beginning of the eBay transition, we're ending the year closing in on $18 billion and we are talking about FX-neutral revenue growth of 18% to 19%. We're looking at, excluding acquisitions, something like 19% to 21% EPS growth, especially absorbing the CECL impact on that. If you look over the last 3 years, our EPS CAGR has grown at 27%. And so we have really strong conviction in our ability to execute against our medium-term guidance. And I think John's right, we want to invest, we want to seize the growth opportunities that are ahead of us and do that in a way that's consistent with the medium-term guidance that we've put out as well as execute year-over-year.

是的。我想補充一點。我的意思是，我考慮了我們對 2020 年的指導，這是 eBay 轉型的開始，我們年底的收入將接近 180 億美元，我們正在談論 18% 至 19% 的外匯中性收入成長。我們正在考慮，不包括收購，每股收益成長 19% 至 21%，尤其是吸收 CECL 對此的影響。如果你看看過去 3 年，我們的 EPS 複合年增長率成長了 27%。因此，我們對執行中期指導的能力充滿信心。我認為約翰是對的，我們想要投資，我們想要抓住擺在我們面前的成長機會，並以符合我們已經推出並逐年執行的中期指導的方式做到這一點-年。

So I think we're feeling like we're entering into 2020 in a strong position, and it gives us more confidence than we had when we've entered into last year, and a lot of conviction around our medium-term guidance.

因此，我認為我們感覺進入 2020 年時處於有利地位，這讓我們比去年進入時更有信心，並對我們的中期指導更有信心。

So I want to thank you, Heath, for that question and thank all of you for joining us today. We really appreciate your time, and we look forward to speaking with all of these soon. Thanks a lot.

因此，我要感謝希思提出這個問題，並感謝大家今天加入我們。我們非常感謝您的寶貴時間，我們期待盡快與所有這些人交談。多謝。

This concludes today's Q&A session. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference call. This concludes the program. And you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great afternoon.

今天的問答環節到此結束。女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的電話會議。程式到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。各位，度過一個愉快的下午。