PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to PayPal's Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

    各位女士、先生,大家好,歡迎參加 PayPal 2019 年第三季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意,今天的會議將被錄音。(接線員指示)

  • I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Ms. Gabrielle Rabinovitch, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我想介紹今天會議的主持人,投資人關係主管 Gabrielle Rabinovitch 女士。請開始。

  • Gabrielle Rabinovitch - VP, IR

    Gabrielle Rabinovitch - VP, IR

  • Thank you, Andrew. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us. Welcome to PayPal Holdings' Earnings Conference Call for Third Quarter 2019.

    謝謝你,Andrew。各位下午好,感謝各位加入我們。歡迎參加 PayPal Holdings 2019 年第三季財報電話會議。

  • Joining me today on the call are Dan Schulman, our President and CEO; and John Rainey, our Chief Financial Officer and EVP Global Customer Operations. We're providing a slide presentation to accompany our commentary. This conference call is also being webcast, and both the presentation and call are available through the Investor Relations section of our website.

    今天與我一同出席電話會議的有:我們的總裁暨執行長 Dan Schulman,以及我們的財務長兼全球客戶營運執行副總裁 John Rainey。我們提供投影片簡報以配合我們的說明。本次電話會議亦同步網路直播,簡報與會議內容皆可透過我們網站的投資人關係專區取得。

  • We will discuss some non-GAAP measures in talking about our company's performance. You can find the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the presentation accompanying this call.

    在討論公司表現時,我們將提及部分非 GAAP 指標。您可在本次電話會議隨附的簡報中,找到這些非 GAAP 指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標之調節表。

  • In addition, management will make forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations, forecasts and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. These statements include our guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2019, our preliminary outlook for 2020, our medium-term outlook, and the impact of our acquisitions. Our actual results may differ materially from these statements.

    此外,管理層將發表前瞻性陳述,該等陳述係基於我們目前的預期、預測與假設,並涉及風險與不確定性。這些陳述包括我們對 2019 年第四季與全年之指引、對 2020 年的初步展望、中期展望,以及我們收購案的影響。我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。

  • You can find more information about risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our results in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC and available on the Investor Relations section of our website. You should not rely on any forward-looking statements.

    關於可能影響我們業績的風險、不確定性及其他因素的更多資訊,請參閱我們最近一期的 Form 10-K 年度報告與向 SEC 提交的 Form 10-Q 季度報告,並可於我們網站的投資人關係專區取得。您不應依賴任何前瞻性陳述。

  • All information in this presentation is as of today's date, October 23, 2019. We expressly disclaim any obligation to update the information.

    本簡報中的所有資訊截至今日(2019 年 10 月 23 日)。我們明確聲明不負有更新該等資訊之任何義務。

  • With that, let me turn the call over to Dan.

    接下來,我把電話交給 Dan。

  • Daniel H. Schulman - President, CEO & Director

    Daniel H. Schulman - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Gabrielle, and thanks, everyone, for joining us on today's call. I'm pleased to report that PayPal had a very strong quarter across all of our key metrics.

    謝謝你,Gabrielle,也謝謝各位參加今天的電話會議。我很高興報告,PayPal 在所有關鍵指標上都繳出非常強勁的一季表現。

  • Revenues grew by 19% on an FX-neutral and spot basis to $4.38 billion. Our revenue growth was driven by strong transaction and TPV volumes. For the first time ever, we processed over 1 billion transactions per month in a quarter, up 25% year-over-year to 3.1 billion transactions. TPV growth accelerated 80 basis points from last quarter and was up 27% on an FX-neutral basis to $179 billion. TPV, excluding eBay, grew by 31%, up 240 basis points from Q3 2018. eBay TPV declined by 3% and now represents just 8% of our total TPV, down approximately 300 basis points from Q3 last year.

    營收在固定匯率(FX-neutral)與即期匯率基礎下成長 19%,達 43.8 億美元。我們的營收成長主要由強勁的交易量與 TPV(總支付金額)帶動。我們首次在單一季度中達成每月處理超過 10 億筆交易,交易筆數年增 25% 至 31 億筆。TPV 成長較上季加速 80 個基點,在固定匯率基礎下年增 27% 至 1,790 億美元。排除 eBay 後的 TPV 成長 31%,較 2018 年第三季提高 240 個基點。eBay TPV 下滑 3%,目前僅占我們總 TPV 的 8%,較去年第三季約下降 300 個基點。

  • As of now our best estimate is that eBay will be approximately 6% of our total TPV at the end of the operating agreement in July 2020. Excluding unrealized losses associated discreetly with our investments in MercadoLibre and Uber, we delivered a very strong $0.79 of non-GAAP EPS as compared to our guidance on a similar basis of $0.69 to $0.71.

    目前我們的最佳估計是,在 2020 年 7 月營運協議到期時,eBay 約將占我們總 TPV 的 6%。若排除與我們對 MercadoLibre 與 Uber 投資相關、單獨列示的未實現損失,我們交出非常強勁的非 GAAP 每股盈餘(EPS)0.79 美元,相較於在相同基礎下我們的指引為 0.69 至 0.71 美元。

  • Excluding the mark-to-market changes in our strategic investment portfolio, our non-GAAP EPS grew 31% driven by a year-over-year expansion of more than 200 basis points in our non-GAAP operating margin to 23.4%. I'm very pleased with the leverage of our operating model and the continued expansion of our operating margins. This leverage drove our largest ever quarterly EPS overperformance versus our expectations and provides us with increased confidence in our medium-term guidance of 20% EPS growth compounded annually.

    若排除我們策略性投資組合的按市價評價(mark-to-market)變動,我們的非 GAAP EPS 年增 31%,主要受惠於非 GAAP 營業利益率年增擴張超過 200 個基點至 23.4%。我對我們營運模式的槓桿效益以及營業利益率的持續擴張感到非常滿意。這項槓桿效益帶動我們單季 EPS 相對於預期的超額表現創下歷史新高,並讓我們對中期指引——EPS 年複合成長 20%——更具信心。

  • I'm also very pleased to report strong growth in both net new actives and engagement. We added 9.8 million net new actives in the quarter, a record number for any previous Q3. We now have 295 million active accounts on our platform, up 16% year-over-year, including over 23 million merchants. We anticipate ending the year at approximately 304 million active accounts, above our stated target of 300 million.

    我也很高興報告,淨新增活躍帳戶與使用黏著度(engagement)皆呈現強勁成長。本季我們淨新增 980 萬個活躍帳戶,創下歷年任何第三季的最高紀錄。目前我們平台上有 2.95 億個活躍帳戶,年增 16%,其中包含超過 2,300 萬個商戶。我們預期年底活躍帳戶約達 3.04 億,將高於我們先前提出的 3 億目標。

  • Engagement continues to consistently increase, growing by 9% to almost 40 transactions per active account. Mobile is a major driver of our growth, with One Touch at 172 million consumers and 13.8 million merchants. We're quite focused on growing our value proposition beyond checkout as our consumers look for more reasons to use PayPal as part of their everyday financial lives.

    使用黏著度持續穩定提升,年增 9%,每個活躍帳戶的交易次數接近 40 次。行動端是我們成長的重要驅動力,One Touch 目前涵蓋 1.72 億名消費者與 1,380 萬名商戶。隨著消費者希望在日常金融生活中有更多理由使用 PayPal,我們正高度聚焦於將價值主張從結帳(checkout)延伸到更多場景。

  • I'm quite pleased by the efforts of the PayPal team this quarter, and I'm encouraged by the strength of our business fundamentals. We are focused on executing against our strategic priorities. We've made significant progress in driving forward our pricing initiatives as well as our product integration with Paymentus, and we now anticipate live, full stack integration by year-end.

    我對 PayPal 團隊本季的努力感到非常滿意,也對我們業務基本面的強勁表現感到鼓舞。我們專注於落實我們的策略優先事項。我們在推動定價措施以及與 Paymentus 的產品整合方面已取得顯著進展,並預期在年底前完成上線的全套(full stack)整合。

  • Venmo continues to be an incredibly powerful platform for engaging consumers. We processed more than 27 billion in volume for the quarter, growing 64%. That's almost $300 million in payments per day and an annual run rate that now exceeds $100 billion. The Venmo team has made tremendous strides in enhancing the use cases of Venmo, including a recently signed deal with Synchrony to provide a Venmo credit card. All of this is producing very strong monetization results. We ended Q3 with Venmo just shy of a $400 million annual revenue run rate.

    Venmo 仍是與消費者互動的一個極其強大的平台。本季我們處理的交易量超過 270 億美元,成長 64%。這相當於每日近 3 億美元的支付金額,年化運行率(annual run rate)現已超過 1,000 億美元。Venmo 團隊在擴展 Venmo 使用情境方面取得巨大進展,包括近期與 Synchrony 簽署協議以提供 Venmo 信用卡。這些都帶來非常強勁的變現成果。第三季結束時,Venmo 的年化營收運行率接近 4 億美元。

  • Last year, we acquired Hyperwallet, knowing that payouts are a powerful tool for fueling engagement as retailers and marketplaces look for new ways to interact with their customers. One year later, I'm pleased to report that our payouts capabilities are gaining strong traction among leading brands.

    去年我們收購了 Hyperwallet,因為我們深知「付款發放」(payouts)是推動互動與黏著度的強大工具,零售商與市集平台正尋求與客戶互動的新方式。一年後,我很高興報告,我們的付款發放能力在領先品牌客戶中正獲得強勁採用。

  • In the quarter, Travelers Insurance announced customers can now receive insurance-claimed payments via PayPal. PepsiCo launched its first-ever cashback loyalty program powered by Venmo and PayPal. Lime, the global scooter rental platform, selected PayPal to facilitate payouts through its network of freelancers. And Epic Games is now using our capabilities for competitive Fortnite players to expedite their prize payout process. This month, we added Venmo as a payout option, providing merchants with another powerful way to reach Venmo's highly engaged user base.

    本季,Travelers Insurance 宣布客戶現在可透過 PayPal 收取保險理賠款項。PepsiCo 推出其史上首個由 Venmo 與 PayPal 驅動的現金回饋(cashback)忠誠度計畫。全球滑板車租賃平台 Lime 選擇 PayPal,透過其自由工作者網路協助付款發放。Epic Games 現在也使用我們的能力,協助競技 Fortnite 玩家加速獎金發放流程。本月,我們新增 Venmo 作為付款發放選項,為商戶提供另一種強而有力的方式,以觸及 Venmo 高度活躍的用戶群。

  • Credit continues to be another strong driver of engagement on our platform. This quarter, we launched new consumer installment plans in the United States and Germany, which allow PayPal customers to pay for their purchases with easy to understand monthly payments. This capability is already leading to incremental sales for our merchants. And we signed a long-term strategic partnership agreement with Citi Australia to develop consumer credit products for PayPal's customers in Australia.

    信貸持續成為我們平台上另一個強勁的互動參與驅動因素。本季,我們在美國與德國推出新的消費者分期付款方案,讓 PayPal 客戶能以易於理解的每月付款方式支付其購買。此項能力已為我們的商戶帶來增量銷售。此外,我們與澳洲花旗銀行(Citi Australia)簽署長期策略合作夥伴協議,共同為 PayPal 在澳洲的客戶開發消費者信貸產品。

  • We continue to gain strong adoption among merchants around the world in daily spend categories. In the quarter, we further expanded our relationship with Walmart, launching PayPal Checkout as the sole payment solution for its online grocery business in Mexico. In Japan, PayPal is one of the official partners for the Japanese government's initiative to promote cashless payments throughout the country.

    我們持續在全球各地的日常消費類別中,獲得商戶的強勁採用。本季,我們進一步擴大與沃爾瑪(Walmart)的合作關係,在墨西哥推出 PayPal Checkout,作為其線上雜貨業務的唯一支付解決方案。在日本,PayPal 是日本政府推動全國無現金支付倡議的官方合作夥伴之一。

  • We made significant strides this quarter with multiple strategic partners to create better experiences for our shared customers. With American Express, we've launched a feature where Amex cardmembers can split a purchase in the Amex app via PayPal or Venmo. We now offer account linking on mobile devices with Capital One and PNC Bank in the United States. We launched instant transfer to bank accounts for Venmo customers through our partnership with JPMorgan Chase, and we launched cashback programs with both Chase and Discover.

    本季我們與多個策略合作夥伴取得重大進展,為共同客戶打造更佳體驗。與美國運通(American Express)合作,我們推出一項功能,讓 Amex 持卡人可在 Amex App 內透過 PayPal 或 Venmo 分拆一筆購買款項。我們目前在美國已可於行動裝置上提供與 Capital One 與 PNC Bank 的帳戶連結。我們透過與摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的合作,為 Venmo 客戶推出即時轉帳至銀行帳戶功能,並與 Chase 與 Discover 共同推出現金回饋方案。

  • I'm pleased that we are beginning to see increasing traction with the results of our pay-with-rewards initiative. To date, 6 million consumers are enabled to use eligible rewards points to pay for a purchase, and those customers who are using their rewards currency currently do so nearly 10% of the time, and we are seeing increased engagement and spend as a result.

    我很高興看到我們的「以獎勵支付」(pay-with-rewards)計畫成果開始獲得愈來愈多的動能。截至目前,已有 600 萬名消費者可使用符合資格的獎勵點數支付購買,而正在使用其獎勵點數的客戶,目前約有將近 10% 的交易會採用此方式,並因此帶動更高的互動參與與支出。

  • In September, we announced that the People's Bank of China has approved our acquisition of a 70% equity interest in GoPay, a licensed provider of online payment services. We are honored to become the first non-Chinese payments company to be licensed to provide online payment services in China. This is a very significant development for us and has the potential to dramatically expand our total addressable market and our long-term growth prospects.

    9 月,我們宣布中國人民銀行已核准我們收購 GoPay 70% 的股權;GoPay 為持牌的線上支付服務供應商。我們深感榮幸,成為首家獲准在中國提供線上支付服務的非中國支付公司。這對我們而言是非常重大的進展,並有潛力大幅擴大我們的可服務總市場(TAM)以及長期成長前景。

  • The license enables us to expand upon our relationships with existing partners like China UnionPay and AliExpress, and forge new partnerships with China's financial institutions and technology platforms, allowing us to provide a comprehensive set of differentiated payment solutions to businesses and consumers in China and globally.

    該牌照使我們得以在既有合作夥伴(如中國銀聯與 AliExpress)的基礎上進一步擴展合作,並與中國的金融機構與科技平台建立新的合作關係,讓我們能向中國及全球的企業與消費者提供一整套具差異化的綜合支付解決方案。

  • Our initial focus will be on providing cross-border payment solutions to China's merchants and consumers, linking China's commerce ecosystem to PayPal's vast two-sided network. The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2019 and is subject to customary closing conditions. We will share much more about our plans early next year, but suffice it to say, we are very excited about our growth opportunities as a result of this landmark agreement.

    我們初期將聚焦於為中國的商戶與消費者提供跨境支付解決方案,將中國的商業生態系與 PayPal 龐大的雙邊網路連結起來。該交易預計於 2019 年第四季完成,並須符合慣常的交割條件。我們將在明年年初分享更多計畫細節;但可以說的是,這項里程碑式協議所帶來的成長機會,令我們非常振奮。

  • Q3 was an important quarter for us, and our results demonstrate the strength of our expanding two-sided network. More importantly, I am optimistic about the opportunities in front of us and our ability to shape the financial services landscape. I've been leading the PayPal team for the past 5 years, and I've never seen it more united, focused and excited about our future. We think the next 5 years will be as defining and value-creating as the past 5.

    第三季對我們而言是重要的一季,我們的成果展現了我們持續擴張的雙邊網路之實力。更重要的是,我對眼前的機會以及我們塑造金融服務版圖的能力感到樂觀。過去 5 年我一直領導 PayPal 團隊,我從未見過團隊如此團結、專注,並對未來如此興奮。我們認為未來 5 年將如同過去 5 年一樣,具有定義性並創造價值。

  • And with that, let me turn the call over to John.

    接下來,我把電話會議交給 John。

  • John D. Rainey - CFO & Executive VP of Global Customer Operations

    John D. Rainey - CFO & Executive VP of Global Customer Operations

  • Thanks, Dan. I want to start off by thanking our customers, partners and global team for helping us deliver a great quarter. The strong results we're reporting today demonstrates the continued execution of our strategy to deliver long-term, sustainable growth.

    謝謝你,Dan。我想先感謝我們的客戶、合作夥伴以及全球團隊,協助我們交出一個出色的季度表現。我們今天所報告的強勁成果,展現了我們持續執行策略、以實現長期且可持續成長。

  • Our volume growth accelerated to 27%. Our revenue grew 19%. We delivered more than 200 basis points of operating margin expansion on both the GAAP and the non-GAAP basis. And we realized operating leverage across each of our nontransaction-related expenses.

    我們的交易量成長加速至 27%。營收成長 19%。在 GAAP 與非 GAAP 基礎上,我們的營業利益率擴張皆超過 200 個基點。此外,我們在各項非交易相關費用上都實現了營運槓桿。

  • Excluding the effect of unrealized losses from our strategic investment portfolio, which I will discuss later, non-GAAP EPS grew 31%. Our Q3 performance shows the consistent strength of our platform and the scalability of our business. Revenue in the third quarter increased 19% on both the spot and currency-neutral basis to $4.38 billion. Hyperwallet and iZettle contributed approximately 1.9 points to revenue growth. Versus the third quarter of 2018, U.S. revenue grew 19% and international revenue grew 20% on a currency-neutral basis. On a spot basis, transaction revenue grew 18%, accelerating 1 point from last year in the second quarter this year. Revenue from other value-added services grew 24%.

    排除我們策略投資組合未實現損失的影響(我稍後會再說明),非 GAAP 每股盈餘(EPS)成長 31%。我們第三季的表現顯示平台一貫的強勁實力以及業務的可擴展性。第三季營收在即期匯率與固定匯率(currency-neutral)基礎下皆成長 19%,達 43.8 億美元。Hyperwallet 與 iZettle 約貢獻營收成長 1.9 個百分點。相較 2018 年第三季,美國營收成長 19%,國際營收在固定匯率基礎下成長 20%。以即期匯率計,交易營收成長 18%,較去年以及今年第二季加速 1 個百分點。其他加值服務營收成長 24%。

  • In the third quarter, transaction take rate was 2.21% and total take rate was 2.45%. Compared to Q3 2018, this was a decline of 12 basis points and 13 basis points, respectively. Continued strength in P2P contributed to approximately half of the decline for both transaction and total take rate.

    第三季,交易抽成率(transaction take rate)為 2.21%,總抽成率(total take rate)為 2.45%。相較 2018 年第三季,分別下降 12 個基點與 13 個基點。P2P 持續強勁,約貢獻了交易抽成率與總抽成率下滑的一半。

  • The performance of eBay's Marketplaces business and the headwinds from the stronger dollar also contributed to the reduction in take rate. $70 million of revenue from hedge gains benefited both transaction take rate and total take rate by approximately 3 basis points.

    eBay 的 Marketplaces 業務表現,以及美元走強帶來的逆風,也促成抽成率下降。來自避險收益的 7,000 萬美元營收,使交易抽成率與總抽成率各自約增加 3 個基點。

  • Volume-based expenses increased 23% in the third quarter to $2 billion. Transaction expense was 95 basis points as the rate of TPV, improving 1 basis point from Q3 2018. Transaction loss was 14 basis points as a rate of TPV, an improvement of 4 basis points from Q3 2018 and flat to last quarter.

    第三季,以交易量為基礎的費用增加 23%,至 20 億美元。交易費用占 TPV 的比率為 95 個基點,較 2018 年第三季改善 1 個基點。交易損失占 TPV 的比率為 14 個基點,較 2018 年第三季改善 4 個基點,且與上季持平。

  • This level of transaction loss as a rate of TPV matched the lowest we've ever achieved, and we realized this result while accelerating TPV growth. This reduction in transaction loss was driven by continued improvements in our risk management capabilities.

    此一交易損失占 TPV 的比率水準,與我們歷來達成的最低水準相符,而我們是在 TPV 成長加速的同時達成此成果。交易損失的下降,主要來自我們風險管理能力的持續改善。

  • Loan losses were 5 basis points as a rate of TPV, which represents an increase of 2 basis points from Q3 last year. This increase was due primarily to growth in both our merchant and international consumer loan portfolios. Transaction margin dollars grew 16% to $2.3 billion in the third quarter. Transaction margin as a rate was 53.4%, a decline of approximately 150 basis points versus Q3 '18.

    放款損失占 TPV 的比率為 5 個基點,較去年第三季增加 2 個基點。此一增加主要是由於我們的商戶與國際消費者放款組合皆成長所致。第三季交易毛利金額(transaction margin dollars)成長 16%,至 23 億美元。交易毛利率(transaction margin as a rate)為 53.4%,較 2018 年第三季下降約 150 個基點。

  • Nontransaction-related expenses grew 6% versus last year. Normalizing for costs related to our 2018 acquisitions, these expenses grew 1.9% or $0.04 for every dollar increase in revenue. This performance highlights the scalability of our model, our operating discipline and our ability to grow at a low marginal cost.

    非交易相關費用較去年成長 6%。若將 2018 年收購案相關成本正規化調整後,這些費用成長 1.9%,或每增加 1 美元營收僅增加 0.04 美元成本。此表現凸顯我們模型的可擴展性、營運紀律,以及以低邊際成本成長的能力。

  • On a non-GAAP basis, operating income in the third quarter grew 30% and exceeded $1 billion for the first time. In addition, our operating margin expanded more than 200 basis points from Q3 2018. We delivered leverage across each of our nontransaction-related expenses.

    以非 GAAP 基礎計算,第三季營業利益成長 30%,並首次突破 10 億美元。此外,我們的營業利益率較 2018 年第三季擴大超過 200 個基點。我們在各項非交易相關費用上皆實現槓桿效益。

  • Adjusting for 2018 acquisitions, operating income grew 31%, and our operating margin expanded 250 basis points in the quarter. Other income in the quarter declined by $256 million relative to Q3 2018, primarily due to a $228 million net unrealized loss on our strategic investment portfolio. On a per share basis, these unrealized losses negatively affected our results by approximately $0.15 after tax.

    若調整 2018 年的收購影響,營業利益成長 31%,且本季營業利益率擴大 250 個基點。本季其他收益較 2018 年第三季減少 2.56 億美元,主要因我們策略性投資組合出現 2.28 億美元的淨未實現損失。以每股計,這些未實現損失在稅後使我們的業績約減少 0.15 美元。

  • When we guided Q3 '19 EPS in July, we included an expected benefit of $0.03 related to a funding round for Toss, a privately-held company in which we have an equity investment. A few weeks later, this funding round closed, and as expected, we recognized a $0.03 per share benefit to GAAP and non-GAAP EPS.

    我們在 7 月提供 2019 年第三季 EPS 指引時,已納入與 Toss(我們持有股權投資的一家非上市公司)一輪募資相關、預期可帶來 0.03 美元的利益。數週後該輪募資完成,如預期我們在 GAAP 與非 GAAP EPS 中確認每股 0.03 美元的利益。

  • In addition, in the quarter, our strategic equity investments in Uber and MercadoLibre resulted in an unrealized loss of approximately $0.18 per share. Consistent with the plans we discussed in April on our first quarter earnings call, we disclosed the expected effect of these net unrealized losses for the third quarter in our 8-K released on October 8.

    此外,本季我們對 Uber 與 MercadoLibre 的策略性股權投資產生約每股 0.18 美元的未實現損失。依照我們在 4 月第一季財報電話會議中討論的計畫,我們已在 10 月 8 日發布的 8-K 中揭露第三季這些淨未實現損失的預期影響。

  • Since January 2018, certain equity investments are required to be revalued based on observable price movements. This new standard had a relatively minor impact on our results in 2018. This year, however, our strategic investments in MercadoLibre and Uber have created more earnings volatility.

    自 2018 年 1 月起,部分股權投資須依可觀察到的價格變動重新估值。這項新準則在 2018 年對我們的影響相對輕微。然而今年,我們對 MercadoLibre 與 Uber 的策略性投資帶來較大的盈餘波動。

  • Starting in 2020, we will update our non-GAAP methodology to exclude the impact of these gains and losses on our strategic investments, as we believe this will provide a better understanding of our operating performance and a more meaningful comparison of our results between periods.

    自 2020 年起,我們將更新非 GAAP 方法,排除策略性投資相關損益的影響,因為我們相信這將有助於更好地理解我們的營運表現,並使各期間結果的比較更具意義。

  • In the third quarter, our non-GAAP effective tax rate was 11.1% versus 16.4% last year. Excluding the impact of unrealized losses from our strategic investment portfolio, our tax rate would have been 13.5%. Our non-GAAP effective tax rate also benefited from a favorable geographic mix of pretax income. Non-GAAP EPS for the third quarter grew 5% to $0.61. Adjusting for unrealized losses of $0.15 this year, non-GAAP EPS grew 31% in the quarter.

    第三季我們的非 GAAP 有效稅率為 11.1%,去年同期為 16.4%。若排除策略性投資組合未實現損失的影響,我們的稅率將為 13.5%。我們的非 GAAP 有效稅率亦受益於稅前所得的有利地理分布。第三季非 GAAP 每股盈餘成長 5% 至 0.61 美元。若調整今年每股 0.15 美元的未實現損失,第三季非 GAAP 每股盈餘成長 31%。

  • We ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and investments of $13.2 billion. In addition, we generated $923 million of free cash flow or approximately $0.21 of free cash flow for every dollar of revenue. Normalizing for the proceeds we received from selling our U.S. consumer credit receivables portfolio last year, free cash flow grew 20%.

    本季末我們的現金、約當現金及投資為 132 億美元。此外,我們產生 9.23 億美元的自由現金流,亦即每 1 美元營收約對應 0.21 美元的自由現金流。若將去年出售美國消費者信用應收帳款投資組合所取得的款項影響正常化,自由現金流成長 20%。

  • During the quarter, we returned $350 million to shareholders through share repurchases. In addition, in Q3, we also accessed the public debt markets for the first time, raising $5 billion in gross proceeds. The senior fixed rate notes are tranched in 3-, 5-, 7- and 10-year terms. The average life of this debt is 6.6 years, with a weighted average interest rate of 2.56%. We used a portion of the proceeds to repay our outstanding borrowings on our 364-day credit facility and plan to use the remainder of the proceeds consistent with our capital allocation priorities.

    本季我們透過庫藏股回購向股東返還 3.5 億美元。此外,第三季我們也首次進入公開債券市場,募集總額 50 億美元。該等優先固定利率票據分為 3 年、5 年、7 年與 10 年期。此筆債務的平均存續期間為 6.6 年,加權平均利率為 2.56%。我們使用部分募集資金償還 364 天期信用融通額度下的未償借款,並計畫依照我們的資本配置優先順序使用其餘資金。

  • I'd now like to discuss our guidance for the fourth quarter of 2019 and the full year as well as our preliminary thoughts for 2020. For the fourth quarter, we expect revenue in the range of $4.89 billion to $4.95 billion or 17% to 18% growth on a currency-neutral basis. In the fourth quarter for the first time, we're lapping the acquisitions of both iZettle and Hyperwallet. Last year, as we disclosed when we reported Q4 '18 results, these acquisitions contributed approximately 1.5 points of growth. Relative to when we provided guidance in July, the U.S. dollar strengthened. We estimate this headwind to be approximately $30 million in the fourth quarter.

    接下來我想討論我們對 2019 年第四季與全年之指引,以及對 2020 年的初步看法。就第四季而言,我們預期營收介於 48.9 億至 49.5 億美元之間,按固定匯率基礎計算成長 17% 至 18%。第四季我們將首次面臨 iZettle 與 Hyperwallet 兩項收購的比較基期。如同我們在公布 2018 年第四季結果時所揭露,去年這些收購約貢獻 1.5 個百分點的成長。相較於我們 7 月提供指引時,美元走強。我們估計此不利因素在第四季約為 3,000 萬美元。

  • Both our integration with Paymentus and the pricing initiatives that we discussed last quarter are on track, and we expect to be substantially complete by the early part of next year. For Q4, we expect non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of $0.81 to $0.83, representing 18% to 21% growth. Our guidance includes no expectation of any gains or losses on our strategic investment portfolio. As a result, for the full year, we now expect revenue to be in the range of $17.7 billion to $17.76 billion or approximately 15% growth on a currency-neutral basis.

    我們與 Paymentus 的整合,以及我們在上季討論的定價措施皆按計畫進行,且我們預期將在明年初大致完成。就第四季而言,我們預期非 GAAP 每股盈餘介於 0.81 至 0.83 美元之間,代表成長 18% 至 21%。我們的指引未納入對策略性投資組合任何損益的預期。因此,就全年而言,我們目前預期營收介於 177 億至 177.6 億美元之間,按固定匯率基礎計算約成長 15%。

  • Normalizing for the sale of the U.S. consumer credit receivables portfolio, the implied revenue growth rate would be approximately 18.5% for the full year. We now expect our non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of $3.06 to $3.08, representing 26% to 27% growth. Excluding the net unrealized gains year-to-date of $0.11 from our strategic investment portfolio, this guidance implies non-GAAP earnings growth of 25% to 26% for the year, which represents a raise in our EPS outlook. In addition, given the strong free cash flow we generated year-to-date, we now expect free cash flow for the full year to be approximately $3.5 billion.

    若將出售美國消費者信用應收帳款投資組合的影響正常化,則全年隱含的營收成長率約為 18.5%。我們目前預期非 GAAP 每股盈餘介於 3.06 至 3.08 美元之間,代表成長 26% 至 27%。若排除策略性投資組合年初至今 0.11 美元的淨未實現收益,該指引意味著全年非 GAAP 盈餘成長 25% 至 26%,亦即我們上調了 EPS 展望。此外,鑑於我們年初至今產生強勁的自由現金流,我們目前預期全年自由現金流約為 35 億美元。

  • I'd now like to provide an initial framework for how we're thinking about 2020. As a reminder, our medium-term outlook calls for 17% to 18% revenue growth on a currency-neutral basis compounded annually, which includes approximately 1.5 points of revenue growth each year on average from acquisitions. We're very pleased with the strength of our business and expect our core trends to continue.

    接下來我想就我們如何看待 2020 年提供一個初步架構。提醒一下,我們的中期展望為按固定匯率基礎計算,營收年複合成長 17% 至 18%,其中平均每年約有 1.5 個百分點的營收成長來自收購。我們對業務的強勁表現感到非常滿意,並預期核心趨勢將持續。

  • Our current expectation is that revenue will grow 17% organically on a currency-neutral basis next year, without the effect of any acquisitions. 2020 also has 2 dynamics I'd like to discuss. First, our operating agreement with eBay expires in July, and we estimate that this transition will impact revenue growth by approximately 1 point next year.

    我們目前的預期是,明年在不受任何收購影響下,按固定匯率基礎計算營收將以有機方式成長 17%。2020 年還有兩項動態我想討論。第一,我們與 eBay 的營運協議將於 7 月到期,我們估計此一轉換將使明年的營收成長約減少 1 個百分點。

  • Second, we will be lapping the contributions to revenue in 2019 from our acquisitions of Hyperwallet and iZettle, which we expect to be an additional point of headwind. Together, these factors pressure revenue growth by approximately 2 points in 2020. Even with this, the strength of our core business provides us with the ability to grow revenue in the range contemplated in our medium-term guidance.

    第二,我們將在 2019 年收購 Hyperwallet 與 iZettle 所帶來的營收貢獻進入比較基期(lap),我們預期這將帶來額外 1 個百分點的逆風。綜合而言,這些因素在 2020 年約對營收成長造成 2 個百分點的壓力。即便如此,我們核心業務的強勁表現,仍使我們有能力在中期指引所預期的區間內實現營收成長。

  • Our initial 2020 framework also calls for at least 50 basis points of operating margin expansion. Next year, we're accelerating our investment in several key initiatives to drive long-term growth and strengthen our platform. At the same time, our ongoing focus on efficiency and natural leverage opportunities will allow us to sustainably deliver operating margin expansion.

    我們對 2020 年的初步框架也預期營業利益率至少擴張 50 個基點。明年,我們將加速在數項關鍵計畫上的投資,以推動長期成長並強化我們的平台。同時,我們持續聚焦效率與自然槓桿機會,將使我們能夠以可持續的方式實現營業利益率擴張。

  • We expect a portion of this operating leverage to be offset by below-the-line items, including additional interest expense on a recent debt issuance and lower interest income earned on corporate cash. As a result, our initial outlook is for approximately 17% to 18% growth on non-GAAP EPS in 2020.

    我們預期其中一部分的營運槓桿將被線下項目所抵銷,包括近期發債帶來的額外利息費用,以及公司現金所賺取的利息收入下降。因此,我們對 2020 年的初步展望為非 GAAP 每股盈餘(EPS)約成長 17% 至 18%。

  • It is important to note, we are confident that we will grow non-GAAP EPS by approximately 20% compounded annually over the medium term, consistent with our previous guidance. The strength, diversification and durability of our business give us confidence in our medium-term outlook.

    需要特別指出的是,我們有信心在中期內,非 GAAP 每股盈餘將以約 20% 的年複合成長率成長,與我們先前的指引一致。我們業務的強勁、多元化與韌性,使我們對中期展望充滿信心。

  • In conclusion, our third quarter results demonstrate our ability to deliver strong revenue and earnings growth and generate significant free cash flow, while advancing our strategic priorities. Our scale affords us continued leverage opportunities. We are focused on creating value for our customers and shareholders and strengthening our position as the world's leading digital payments platform.

    總結而言,我們第三季的結果展現了我們在推進策略優先事項的同時,仍能交出強勁的營收與獲利成長並產生可觀自由現金流的能力。我們的規模使我們得以持續取得槓桿機會。我們專注於為客戶與股東創造價值,並強化我們作為全球領先數位支付平台的地位。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for questions. Thank you.

    接下來,我把時間交給接線員進行提問。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

    (接線員指示) 我們的第一個問題來自 JPMorgan 的 Tien-Tsin Huang。

  • Tien-Tsin Huang - Senior Analyst

    Tien-Tsin Huang - Senior Analyst

  • Nice acceleration here, especially in the U.S. Looks like revenue up 19%. So I was curious, I know that you have eBay drag. You have some pricing that's coming up here in the fourth quarter. So maybe can you help us unpack the drivers this quarter for the 19% or overall with the acceleration? Just curious how sustainable this is, given some of the puts and takes that we're all expecting here.

    這裡的加速表現很不錯,尤其是在美國。看起來營收成長 19%。所以我想請教,我知道你們有 eBay 的拖累。第四季也會有一些定價調整。因此也許你們能幫我們拆解一下,本季 19%(或整體加速)的驅動因素是什麼?也想了解在我們都預期會有一些利多與利空拉扯的情況下,這樣的表現可持續性如何。

  • Daniel H. Schulman - President, CEO & Director

    Daniel H. Schulman - President, CEO & Director

  • Maybe I'll start off with that, and then turn it over to John. We're quite pleased with the revenue growth that we had in the third quarter and really what we expect in fourth quarter and going into 2020. Say there are a couple of things, and you're right, these are before pricing initiatives really come to play as well as our full integration with Paymentus.

    也許我先回答,然後再交給 John。我們對第三季的營收成長,以及我們對第四季與進入 2020 年的預期,都感到相當滿意。可以說有幾個因素,而且你說得沒錯,這些都還在定價措施真正發揮作用之前,也在我們與 Paymentus 完整整合之前。

  • Our net new actives and our engagement are really beginning to kick in and start to drive incremental growth in our revenues. We had records in net new actives for the quarter, almost 10 million. You've got engagement going up again by another 9% to 40x a year. Just those couple of things are really starting to put more and more acceleration in.

    我們的淨新增活躍帳戶與使用互動度,確實開始發揮作用並帶動營收的增量成長。本季淨新增活躍帳戶創下紀錄,接近 1,000 萬。互動度也再次提升 9%,達到每年 40 次。光是這幾點就真的開始帶來越來越多的加速動能。

  • And what we're beginning to see right now is that sales into our back book and a lot of sales into the front book are coming in much more strongly than we've ever had before. We're just winning more business right now. There's a bit of a network effect going on. We have almost 300 million active accounts now. Merchants understand the scale we have. They want to be a part of that.

    而我們目前開始看到的是,對既有客戶(back book)的銷售,以及對新客戶(front book)的許多銷售,都比以往任何時候更強勁地進來。我們現在就是贏得更多業務。這裡有一些網路效應正在發生。我們現在有將近 3 億個活躍帳戶。商戶了解我們的規模。他們希望成為其中的一部分。

  • We do start to see right now the beginnings of our capabilities of selling as a platform provider and not just a product. So as I mentioned with payouts in my earnings script, we're seeing that really start to take hold. We're really starting to see a lot more full stack processing start to take hold.

    我們也開始看到,我們作為平台供應商(而不只是單一產品)的銷售能力正在萌芽。因此如同我在財報講稿中提到的 payouts(款項發放),我們看到這確實開始站穩腳步。我們也真的開始看到更多全栈(full stack)處理能力逐步落地。

  • And so we're having a lot more incremental products sales, both in the back book as well as in the front book, including just basic things like presentment of the PayPal button where it's presented. Given the scale we have now, merchants are putting as into more and more prime positions of presentment.

    因此我們有更多增量的產品銷售,無論是在既有客戶或新客戶端都一樣,包括一些基本項目,例如 PayPal 按鈕的展示位置(presentment)。以我們現在的規模,商戶正把我們放到越來越多的黃金展示位置。

  • Partnerships are beginning to kick in right now. We now have 9 out of the top 10 U.S. banks working with us. The marketplaces outside of eBay, they have over $100 billion of TPV right now growing at 36% with us. And so we're really beginning to see a bend in the curve in our core organic PayPal growth, and that is really encouraging for us.

    合作夥伴關係也開始發揮作用。我們現在與美國前十大銀行中的 9 家合作。eBay 以外的市集平台(marketplaces),目前與我們合作的 TPV 已超過 1,000 億美元,且成長 36%。因此我們真的開始看到核心自然成長的 PayPal 業務曲線出現轉折,這對我們來說非常令人鼓舞。

  • And then, of course, you have Venmo rapidly growing its monetization efforts right now. We're really pleased with that. I think what we're equally as pleased with is we see a lot of good runway in front of Venmo as well.

    當然,Venmo 目前也正快速推進其變現(monetization)工作。我們對此非常滿意。我想我們同樣感到高興的是,我們也看到 Venmo 前方仍有很長的成長跑道。

  • John D. Rainey - CFO & Executive VP of Global Customer Operations

    John D. Rainey - CFO & Executive VP of Global Customer Operations

  • I would just add, as Dan suggested, we're seeing good trends across many aspects of our business. I think it's important to remember, for the first part of this year, at least the first 3 quarters, we've had some more difficult comps with things like cross-border with some currency effects and things like that. And so we are sort of lapping some of the beginning impacts of that, not that I think the currency environment seems to be getting much improved from where it was.

    我補充一下,如 Dan 所提到的,我們在業務的許多面向都看到良好趨勢。我認為重要的是要記得,今年前半段,至少前三季,我們面臨較具挑戰的比較基期,例如跨境業務受到匯率影響等因素。因此我們某種程度上正在進入並跨過這些影響的初期比較基期,雖然我不認為匯率環境相較之前有明顯改善。

  • But with respect to the couple of things that you alluded to around Paymentus and pricing, we are live with both of those. There is a needed ramp on each of them. So we launched in 3 countries on the pricing initiative that we've referred to previously, not to overly fixate on that because we make pricing changes all the time, but I know there was some questions about that given our last call.

    至於你提到的 Paymentus 與定價這兩件事,我們兩者都已上線。它們各自都需要一段爬坡期。因此我們在先前提到的定價措施上,已在 3 個國家推出;我不想過度聚焦在這件事上,因為我們一直都在做定價調整,但我知道基於上次電話會議,大家對此有一些疑問。

  • In Paymentus, we're excited about the progress that we're making there. We're ramping up in the fourth quarter. And as I noted in my remarks, we expect to be complete with each of those by the early part of next year.

    在 Paymentus 方面,我們對目前取得的進展感到振奮。我們在第四季加速爬坡。如同我在發言中提到的,我們預期在明年年初完成這兩項工作。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Bryan Keane with Deutsche Bank.

    下一個問題來自 Deutsche Bank 的 Bryan Keane。

  • Bryan Connell Keane - Research Analyst

    Bryan Connell Keane - Research Analyst

  • Solid results here. I wanted to ask about the purpose of the additional debt issuance back in September. Can we see more aggressive stock buybacks or more M&A? I see the GoPay acquisition, and I'm also wondering if we'll see more acquisitions in Asia or elsewhere.

    結果很扎實。我想問一下 9 月那次額外發債的目的。我們是否會看到更積極的庫藏股回購或更多併購(M&A)?我看到 GoPay 的收購案,也想知道是否會在亞洲或其他地區看到更多收購。

  • John D. Rainey - CFO & Executive VP of Global Customer Operations

    John D. Rainey - CFO & Executive VP of Global Customer Operations

  • Thanks, Bryan. Good to speak with you. I'd say the debt issuance was perhaps twofold. One, it was opportunistic. And two, it gives us more flexibility. Opportunistic in the sense that it's just it was a good time to tap into the debt markets.

    謝謝,Bryan。很高興和你交流。我會說這次發行債務可能有兩個層面。第一,是把握時機。第二,是讓我們更有彈性。所謂把握時機,是指當時正是進入債券市場融資的好時點。

  • I talked about the various tranches of our debt, and we literally secured 10-year debt at less than 3%. And so that's a very attractive rate for us, and we've got ample opportunities to allocate that capital. And it does give us more flexibility given our strategic initiatives. But there's not -- don't read into that in that there's a change in how we're thinking about capital allocation. So as a reminder, we said when we provided our medium-term guidance that we expect over that time frame of approximately 5 years, that we would spend 40% to 45% of our free cash flow to buy back stock, and that we would spend between $1 billion and $3 billion in M&A activity.

    我談到過我們債務的不同分層,我們確實以低於3%的利率鎖定了10年期債務。因此,這對我們而言是非常有吸引力的利率,而且我們有充足的機會來配置這些資本。同時,鑑於我們的策略性計畫,這也確實讓我們更有彈性。但不要——不要從中解讀為我們在資本配置思路上有所改變。提醒一下,我們在提供中期指引時曾表示,在約5年的時間範圍內,我們預期會將自由現金流的40%到45%用於回購股票,並將在併購(M&A)活動上投入10億到30億美元。

  • Now that's not necessarily each year, but that's on average over that period of time. This allows us the flexibility to do that. And importantly, as you think about the cash-generating ability of our business, we'll generate $3.5 billion of free cash flow this year, but that comes sort of ratably throughout the year. Going and tapping into the debt markets at this point in time gives us the opportunity to access that cash on our timing versus when we're earning that cash throughout the year.

    這不一定是每一年都如此,而是在那段期間內的平均水準。這讓我們有彈性去做到這點。而且重要的是,當你考量我們業務的現金創造能力時,我們今年將產生35億美元的自由現金流,但這些現金是在全年相對均勻地逐步產生。在此時點進入債券市場融資,讓我們能依照我們的時間點取得現金,而不是受限於全年逐步賺取現金的節奏。

  • So no change to our plans. We still believe that effective capital allocation supports and contributes to long-term value creation, and this was really just an opportunity to tap into the debt markets to get to a more optimal capital structure as we've suggested for some time. That gives us more flexibility.

    所以我們的計畫沒有改變。我們仍然相信,有效的資本配置能支持並促進長期價值創造,而這次主要只是把握機會進入債券市場,以達到我們一段時間以來所提到的更優化資本結構。這讓我們更有彈性。

  • Daniel H. Schulman - President, CEO & Director

    Daniel H. Schulman - President, CEO & Director

  • Maybe I can just quick add on to John's great answer there. I think on the M&A front, we obviously have quite a strong balance sheet right now, some $13 billion of cash, and as John mentioned, generating about $3.5 billion of free cash flow this year.

    也許我可以在John很好的回答上快速補充一下。我想在併購(M&A)方面,我們目前顯然有相當強健的資產負債表,約有130億美元現金,而且如John所提到的,今年將產生約35億美元的自由現金流。

  • We have stated that we will be acquisitive. We look at some 200 to 300 companies every quarter. We will, over time and on average, as John mentioned, spend somewhere between $1 billion and $3 billion. We anticipate on acquisitions. Last year was a light year, but you should expect us to be acquisitive. Those acquisitions would, obviously, any revenues that come from it would be additive to our 2020 plans. We're at 17% organic. Anything we would do would be on top of that.

    我們已經表明我們會積極進行併購。我們每季會評估大約200到300家公司。隨著時間推移並以平均來看,如John所說,我們預計會在併購上投入約10億到30億美元。我們預期用於收購。去年是相對較少的一年,但你應該預期我們會持續進行併購。這些收購所帶來的任何營收,顯然都會對我們2020年的計畫形成增量。我們的有機成長為17%。我們做的任何事情都會是在此基礎之上。

  • And we will continue to look at capabilities that would improve things like consumer engagement. We would look at geographic expansion opportunities. GoPay would be a good example of that. Scale and scope with different partners. MELI and Uber would be good examples of that. And so no change in our capital allocation, but you should expect us to use our balance sheet in areas that would complement our internal development efforts and allow us to continue to seize growth opportunities where we see them.

    我們也會持續尋找能提升例如消費者互動等能力的標的。我們會尋找地理擴張的機會。GoPay就是一個很好的例子。以及與不同合作夥伴在規模與範疇上的擴展。MELI和Uber就是很好的例子。因此,我們的資本配置沒有改變,但你應該預期我們會在能補強內部開發努力、並讓我們持續把握所見成長機會的領域運用資產負債表。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

    下一個問題來自美國銀行美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的Jason Kupferberg。

  • Jason Alan Kupferberg - MD in US Equity Research & Senior Analyst

    Jason Alan Kupferberg - MD in US Equity Research & Senior Analyst

  • Good numbers here. I just had a question and a clarification on 2020. The question is on the eBay front. So only a 1% revenue headwind for next year, certainly less than the investment community had feared. So I'm just wondering, is this largely a timing issue in terms of how much of the eBay take rate comes down in 2020 specifically as well as the pace at which you expect unbranded volume to roll off?

    數字表現不錯。我有一個問題以及一個關於2020年的釐清。問題是關於eBay。明年營收僅有1%的逆風,確實比投資界先前擔心的要小。所以我想問,這主要是時間點的問題嗎?也就是2020年eBay抽成率(take rate)下調的幅度,以及你們預期無品牌交易量(unbranded volume)流失的速度?

  • And then just a quick clarification is on the EPS growth for next year, the 17% to 18%. Is that off the new $3.06 to $3.08 number in '19? Or is the base $2.95 to $2.97, excluding the $0.11 of year-to-date mark-to-market gain?

    另外快速釐清一下明年的EPS成長17%到18%。這是以2019年新的3.06到3.08美元為基礎計算嗎?還是以2.95到2.97美元為基礎(不含年初至今0.11美元的按市價計量收益)?

  • John D. Rainey - CFO & Executive VP of Global Customer Operations

    John D. Rainey - CFO & Executive VP of Global Customer Operations

  • Hey, Jason. So on eBay, there's a couple of dynamics going on there. Our expectation right now is that eBay is about fully ramped through the 10% that they're allowed in each of the 2 entities that were -- they're doing managed payments, which are Germany and the U.S. So going to the back half of next year, we would expect that those would ramp much more appreciably as they're already live in those markets.

    嗨,Jason。關於eBay,這裡有幾個動態因素。我們目前的預期是,eBay在其進行管理支付(managed payments)的兩個實體——德國與美國——已經大致完成了其各自允許的10%上限的爬坡。因此到了明年下半年,我們預期隨著它們已在這些市場上線,爬坡幅度會更為明顯。

  • There's a more -- or our expectation, anyway, is that there is a more metered ramp for when they launch in some of these other geographies, which is consistent with kind of what we've seen in the first 2 geographies where they've launched.

    我們的預期——至少目前——是他們在其他一些地理區域上線時,爬坡會更為循序、受控,這也與我們在前兩個已上線地區所看到的情況一致。

  • I think also related to that is our expectation about what share of checkout we retain. And based upon what we've seen in both Germany and the U.S., it's consistent to what we said back in January of 2018 around our expectations there. So each of those elements influences our expectation around eBay. But obviously, that's an estimate at this point in time, and that can change. We will certainly let you know if something does.

    我想與此相關的還有我們對於我們能保留多少結帳份額(share of checkout)的預期。根據我們在德國與美國看到的情況,這與我們在2018年1月對該預期所說的一致。因此,這些因素都會影響我們對eBay的預期。但顯然,這在目前仍是估計,且可能會改變。如果有任何變化,我們一定會告知你們。

  • Daniel H. Schulman - President, CEO & Director

    Daniel H. Schulman - President, CEO & Director

  • John, before you get to that part, let me, maybe, expand a little bit on eBay. So Jason, I think obviously, there's going to be an important strategic partner with us for a long time to come but it's obviously shrinking in terms of its overall volumes and its impact on our financials. It's been 3 quarters in a row where they've had negative TPV growth. They're negative 3%. Outside of that, we're growing at 31% in our TPV, and we think at the end of the OA, they're going to be down to about 6% of our overall TPV volumes.

    John,在你回答那部分之前,讓我也許再多補充一點關於eBay。所以Jason,我想很明顯,eBay在很長一段時間內仍會是我們重要的策略夥伴,但它在整體交易量以及對我們財務的影響上,顯然正在縮小。他們已經連續3個季度TPV成長為負。目前是負3%。撇開這部分,我們的TPV成長為31%,而且我們認為在OA結束時,他們將降至約占我們整體TPV的6%。

  • And if you think about it, like when we initially split from eBay, TPV -- their percentage of TPV was around 20%. Now it's dropped down to about 8%. If you look at their revenues, revenues have dropped in half as a percent overall. And so I think it's really worth noting that while all of that has been happening, our revenues have been growing on average, call it 18% to 20%. During that time frame, our margins have been going up. And so they're obviously a much smaller part of PayPal than we expected when we were first thinking about the OA. And therefore, the transition at the end of the OA is going to be much less of an impact, much more manageable. And we think that 1% of revenue growth impact is probably a pretty reasonable expectation.

    如果你回想一下,當我們最初從eBay拆分時,TPV——他們占TPV的比例大約是20%。現在已降到約8%。如果看他們帶來的營收,占比也已經減半。因此我認為很值得注意的是,在這一切發生的同時,我們的營收平均仍成長約18%到20%。在那段期間,我們的利潤率也在上升。所以他們顯然已成為PayPal中比我們最初思考OA時所預期更小的一部分。因此,在OA結束時的轉換對我們的影響會小得多、也更可控。我們認為營收成長影響約1%可能是相當合理的預期。

  • I'd say nothing in their intermediated payouts right now gives me any incremental cause for concern. I mean, maybe even the opposite, they need regulatory approvals in all of the countries that they're going to roll out into. There's going to be a long tail, that that's going to be hard to get to. China's obviously going to be an interesting discussion item on that. Merchants are increasingly beginning to sell on multiple platforms right now, and they're using PayPal One Touch activation to do that and so they're quite tied into PayPal. And we are seeing the PayPal's share of checkout on intermediated payments rising significantly.

    我會說,他們目前在中介式付款(intermediated payouts)方面沒有任何事情讓我額外感到擔憂。我的意思是,甚至可能相反,他們需要在所有將要推行的國家取得監管核准。這會有很長的長尾,而那將很難完全覆蓋到。中國顯然會是其中一個有趣的討論點。商戶現在愈來愈開始在多個平台上銷售,他們使用 PayPal One Touch 啟用來做到這點,因此他們與 PayPal 的綁定相當深。而我們也看到 PayPal 在中介式付款的結帳占比正在顯著上升。

  • And so you put all those into place along with the growth that we're seeing in other marketplaces and our ability to start to work with some marketplaces that we weren't able to work with before, and we think this is going to be a very manageable transition, and we hope to be close partners with eBay as we go through that.

    因此,把這些因素與我們在其他市集看到的成長、以及我們開始能與一些過去無法合作的市集合作的能力結合起來,我們認為這將會是一個非常可控的轉換,我們也希望在這個過程中能與 eBay 維持緊密的合作夥伴關係。

  • John D. Rainey - CFO & Executive VP of Global Customer Operations

    John D. Rainey - CFO & Executive VP of Global Customer Operations

  • Jason, and to address your second question, which I probably should have anticipated given the noise that we've had in some of these mark-to-market adjustments. But the earnings growth that we talked about of 17% to 18% in 2020 is on a similar base in 2019. So it excludes the mark-to-market adjustments in 2019. Does that answer your question?

    Jason,另外回應你的第二個問題,考量到我們在某些按市價計量(mark-to-market)調整上出現的雜音,我可能早就該預料到你會問。不過,我們談到 2020 年 17% 到 18% 的盈餘成長,是以 2019 年的相同基礎來計算。因此,它排除了 2019 年的按市價計量調整。這樣有回答你的問題嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Darrin Peller with Wolfe Research.

    下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Darrin Peller。

  • Darrin David Peller - MD & Senior Analyst

    Darrin David Peller - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Your margin came in materially above our estimate. It looks like operating leverage on sales and marketing in G&A and I guess better losses, I know, I think, John, you mentioned, were a lot more pronounced. What are your thoughts on what's allowing that kind of margin uptick now versus before? And just when considering, I guess, the pricing changes, the partial offset of eBay mid-year in our integrations? Can you just touch on sustainability, and maybe how the 50 bps expected in 2020 would have looked if not for eBay?

    你們的利潤率明顯高於我們的預估。看起來是銷售與行銷、一般與行政(G&A)的營運槓桿,以及我想還有更好的損失表現;我知道,我想 John 你提到的,這些都更為明顯。你們怎麼看是什麼因素讓利潤率現在能有這樣的上升、相較於以前?另外在考量我想是定價變更、年中 eBay 的部分抵銷,以及我們整合上的影響時,你能談談可持續性嗎?以及如果沒有 eBay,2020 年預期的 50 個基點(bps)會是什麼樣子?

  • John D. Rainey - CFO & Executive VP of Global Customer Operations

    John D. Rainey - CFO & Executive VP of Global Customer Operations

  • Sure, Darrin. So a couple of things. One, as we look at the outperformance in the quarter, we provide a range of estimates around revenue and earnings, and we came in at the higher end of that range that we expected. So the revenue outperformance is one of the bigger drivers within the quarter for how we performed.

    當然可以,Darrin。所以有幾點。第一,當我們看本季的超預期表現時,我們對營收與盈餘提供了一個預估區間,而我們的結果落在我們原先預期區間的高端。因此,營收超預期是本季表現的一個較大驅動因素。

  • But as you noted, we also performed very well on the expense side. I think it's -- I'll caution you about assuming that, that level of sales and marketing is a run rate basis. There are a number of initiatives going on there as we go to market in a different way that have affected not quarter. And so that's just kind of a side point.

    但如你所指出的,我們在費用端也表現得非常好。我想提醒你,不要假設那樣的銷售與行銷費用水準可以視為常態化的 run rate。我們在那裡有多項計畫正在進行,因為我們以不同方式推向市場,這些計畫影響了本季。所以這只是補充說明一下。

  • But the general point around operating margin leverage and what we can do there, this is a very sustainable initiative for us. And you'll remember, Darrin, a couple of years ago when we first started this -- the work in this area, there was some question about was this a onetime cost takeout? Or was this really sustainable? I hope that we're beginning to relay the concerns around people about the sustainability of that. This is perhaps the best performance that we've ever seen in any particular quarter, growing our organic costs, nontransaction-related costs at 1.9%.

    但就營業利益率槓桿以及我們能做到什麼這個大方向而言,這對我們來說是一項非常可持續的措施。你會記得,Darrin,幾年前當我們第一次開始做這方面的工作時,外界曾質疑這是不是一次性的成本削減?還是說這真的可持續?我希望我們現在開始能消除大家對其可持續性的疑慮。這可能是我們在任何單一季度中看過的最佳表現:我們的有機成本、非交易相關成本僅成長 1.9%。

  • And this is really just -- well, if you remember, I described it at the time as we were replumbing our business or rewiring our business to be able to grow at a very low marginal cost. And it's literally in every aspect of the business. But I'll give you one example that maybe will really give you a flavor of how these are coming about.

    而這其實就是——如果你還記得,我當時形容這是在替我們的業務重新鋪設管線(replumbing)或重新佈線(rewiring),讓我們能以非常低的邊際成本成長。而且這真的涵蓋業務的每一個面向。不過我舉一個例子,或許能讓你更具體感受到這些改善是如何發生的。

  • So we obviously have a significant number of calls that come in each month in our call center, 5 million on average per month. And we aspire to be able to address each of those issues that our customers have and to be on the phone with or not have them have to wait on the phone. But we're not perfect. And if you go back to last December, we had 33,000 calls that a customer had to wait over 45 minutes.

    我們的客服中心每個月顯然會接到大量來電,平均每月 500 萬通。我們希望能解決客戶的每一個問題,並且在電話上與他們溝通,或讓他們不必在電話上等待。但我們並不完美。如果回到去年 12 月,有 33,000 通電話是客戶必須等待超過 45 分鐘。

  • While I looked right before I came in here today, and in the month of October, we have 526 calls. Now that's a dramatic improvement, but what's noteworthy about that is we achieved that without adding a single human being to address that problem. Those were always used around schedule efficiency, better routing when someone goes into the IVR, things like that, that just enables us to provide a better customer experience, but the same time, lower our cost. And in the scheme of 5 million calls a month, 33,000 is maybe not a lot, but each of those customers has an experience, and that impacts whether they use us again, whether they churn in the future. And so it's things like that, that drive dramatic improvements in our business, both on the cost line, but also what it can do for the customer experience as well.

    我今天進來之前剛看了一下,而在 10 月份,我們只有 526 通電話。這是非常戲劇性的改善,但值得注意的是,我們是在沒有增加任何一位人力來解決這個問題的情況下達成的。這些改善主要來自排班效率、當有人進入 IVR(互動式語音回應)時更好的路由分配等,讓我們能提供更好的客戶體驗,同時降低成本。以每月 500 萬通電話的規模來看,33,000 也許不算多,但每一位客戶都會有一次體驗,而那會影響他們是否再次使用我們、以及未來是否流失。因此,正是這類事情推動了我們業務的顯著改善,不僅在成本端,也包括對客戶體驗的提升。

  • Daniel H. Schulman - President, CEO & Director

    Daniel H. Schulman - President, CEO & Director

  • I'll add a couple of things to that, Darrin, that I think are really important. First of all, things that you don't see that are really important to us are things like what are we doing with developer tool sets, our development platform, which makes our engineers so much more productive before we would have to hire a lot, with people that just couldn't get their code through. And now we have tool sets in an environment that is much more efficient, maybe 2x the efficiency that we had before.

    我再補充幾點我認為非常重要的內容,Darrin。首先,有些你看不到、但對我們非常重要的事情,例如我們在開發者工具組、開發平台上做了什麼,這讓我們的工程師生產力大幅提升;以前我們得大量招人,因為很多人就是無法把程式碼順利交付上線。而現在我們有一套更有效率的工具與環境,效率可能是以前的 2 倍。

  • Things like losses. As we grow bigger and our transaction volume becomes larger, our ability to do machine learning on that, combined with the acquisition we did of Simility, those losses now are at a lower level that we think continues as well and probably may even improve as we get larger.

    再例如損失(losses)。隨著我們規模變大、交易量變得更大,我們運用機器學習處理這些的能力,加上我們收購 Simility 的整合,使得這些損失現在處於更低水準;我們認為這種趨勢會持續,甚至可能在我們規模更大時進一步改善。

  • And finally, I would just say Venmo. Venmo used to have more and more money than we would have to put into Venmo each year as a group. And it is now, instead of a drain on our margin structure, a help on our margin structure as we go forward, and I would expect that to continue to happen. And so all in, I think we feel pretty good about the leverage of the model, and that's why we have such strong confidence around that 20% compounding annually EPS number.

    最後我想說的是 Venmo。過去 Venmo 每年都需要我們集團投入越來越多的資金。而現在,它不再是我們利潤結構的拖累,反而在未來會成為利潤結構的助力,我也預期這會持續發生。總體而言,我們對這個模型的槓桿效益感覺相當不錯,這也是為什麼我們對每年 EPS 以 20% 複合成長的目標有如此強的信心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of David Togut with Evercore.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Togut。

  • David Mark Togut - Senior MD

    David Mark Togut - Senior MD

  • Could you give us sort of a deeper dive or status update on some of the delayed new pricing initiatives and new product integrations with partners that you called out on the second quarter earnings call? And to the extent any of those impacts were embedded in the 2020 guidance, it would be helpful to have insight.

    你能否就你們在第二季財報電話會議中提到的一些延後的新定價措施,以及與合作夥伴的新產品整合,提供更深入的說明或最新進度?另外,若這些影響有任何部分已反映在 2020 年的財測指引中,也希望能提供相關洞見。

  • John D. Rainey - CFO & Executive VP of Global Customer Operations

    John D. Rainey - CFO & Executive VP of Global Customer Operations

  • Sure, David. This is John. I'll address that. So when we announced the delay in those initiatives initially on the last call, I think it's fair to say that we probably aired on the side of conservatism as we thought about the back half of the year, and that they are both, specifically the Paymentus initiative as well as the price initiative, they are both performing moderately better than what we expected at that point in time in terms of the pace of the integration of each of those. And we do expect to have a benefit as we have a full -- as those are rolled in at the beginning of next year when we get the -- for the vast majority of the year, get the full run rate benefit of each of those.

    當然可以,David。我是 John。我來回答。因此,當我們在上一次電話會議首次宣布這些措施延後時,我認為可以說,我們在思考下半年時可能偏向保守;而這兩項措施——具體而言,Paymentus 計畫以及定價計畫——就各自整合進度的速度而言,目前表現都比我們當時預期的略好一些。我們也預期,當這些在明年年初納入後,我們將受益——因為在明年年初完成導入後,我們在明年絕大部分時間都能取得兩者的完整 run rate(穩態)效益。

  • With respect to pricing, that's been rolled out in 3 countries in Q4, and we'll expand that further into next year. And as a reminder, this is -- with respect to refund pricing and in line with industry practice, we don't charge fees to process refunds, but also in line with industry practice, we are retaining the fix and the variable piece of that. And certain margins are excluded if you have negotiated pricing and so forth. But those are performing as expected.

    就定價而言,我們已在第四季於 3 個國家推出,並將在明年進一步擴大。提醒一下,這是——就退款定價而言,且符合產業慣例,我們不會對處理退款收取費用,但同樣依照產業慣例,我們會保留其中的固定與變動部分。若你有協商定價等情況,某些利潤項目會被排除。但整體表現符合預期。

  • But as we look at 2020, we'll go live with additional merchants, and we will have additional price changes, always looking to price to the value that we create for our customer base. As we offer expanded capabilities and experiences for them, we want to be able to price to that as well.

    但展望 2020 年,我們將與更多商戶上線,並會有更多價格調整;我們始終以能反映我們為客戶群創造的價值來定價。隨著我們為他們提供更擴充的能力與體驗,我們也希望能對應地進行定價。

  • Daniel H. Schulman - President, CEO & Director

    Daniel H. Schulman - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I'll just say, David, that pricing is an ongoing process for us. We had certain things baked into our plans, and we were late on those. We had certain expectations on integration, especially into Paymentus, and we were late on those. It's one of the reasons why I'm really happy with the performance of so many people on the PayPal team. They were really laser-focused on getting those implemented in the right way. And these are complicated integrations, and we want to make sure that we're fully transparent in the way we roll these things out. And so I'm pretty pleased with the way the teams stepped up and addressed all of that.

    是的。我再補充一句,David,定價對我們而言是一個持續進行的流程。我們原本在計畫中已納入某些事項,但我們在那些事項上延遲了。我們對整合也有一些既定預期,特別是整合到 Paymentus,但我們也延遲了。這也是我對 PayPal 團隊許多人的表現感到非常滿意的原因之一。他們非常專注於以正確的方式把這些落地。而這些整合很複雜,我們希望確保在推出這些事項時能完全透明。因此,我對團隊挺身而出並處理這一切的方式感到相當滿意。

  • As John mentioned, I think, on the Paymentus side, we'll have full-stack integration live by the end of the year. And then we start to roll in. Paymentus has almost 1,500 billers. We want to role in all of those billers into a Bill Pay app right on the PayPal app, and that will take into the first and second quarter before we have that completed. But the full stack integration onto our Braintree platform will happen by the end of the year.

    如 John 所提到的,我想在 Paymentus 方面,我們將在年底前完成全堆疊(full-stack)整合並上線。接著我們會開始逐步導入。Paymentus 有將近 1,500 家帳單業者(billers)。我們希望把所有這些帳單業者都導入到 PayPal App 內的 Bill Pay 應用中,這將延續到第一季與第二季才會完成。但在我們的 Braintree 平台上完成全堆疊整合,將會在年底前發生。

  • Pricing, just to reiterate what John said, pricing's an ongoing process for us. We're going to have pricing initiatives this year, next year, the year after and the year after that. I mean, we continually assess market dynamics. We look at the evolving practices of our competitors. We take a hard look at the value we provide, and then we try to price appropriately based on all those factors. And we price sometimes up. Sometimes we take prices down. It depends on product. It depends on corridors. It depends on regions in the world, but we're very considerate about it. We do have some degree of latitude in all those things. And right now, I think John and I are both pretty pleased where we are.

    定價方面,再次重申 John 所說的,定價對我們而言是一個持續進行的流程。我們今年、明年、後年以及再後一年都會有定價措施。我的意思是,我們會持續評估市場動態。我們會觀察競爭對手不斷演變的作法。我們會嚴格檢視我們提供的價值,然後嘗試基於所有這些因素進行適當定價。我們有時會調高價格。有時也會調降價格。這取決於產品。取決於通道(corridors)。取決於全球不同地區,但我們在這方面非常審慎。在所有這些事情上,我們確實有一定程度的操作空間。而就目前而言,我想 John 和我都對現況相當滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Lisa Ellis with MoffettNathanson.

    你的下一個問題來自 MoffettNathanson 的 Lisa Ellis。

  • Lisa Ann Dejong Ellis - Partner

    Lisa Ann Dejong Ellis - Partner

  • It looked like other value-added services beats pretty handily in the quarter. I'm looking at it, it looks like loan growth was up about 65% year-on-year and also sequentially. So now that we're kind of clear of the Synchrony transition, can you just give -- can you give us an update on how you're thinking about the role of credit in your strategy going forward? And specifically, like how much of this vast growth is going on balance sheet versus off balance sheet? And can OVAS continue to grow like this well, well above TPV and revenue growth going forward?

    看起來本季其他加值服務(OVAS)的表現大幅優於預期。我在看數據時,似乎放款成長年增約 65%,且季增也同樣上升。因此,既然我們已大致走過與 Synchrony 的轉換期,你能否更新一下你們如何看待未來信用(credit)在策略中的角色?特別是,這種大幅成長中,有多少是在表內(on balance sheet) versus 表外(off balance sheet)?以及 OVAS 未來是否仍能持續以遠高於 TPV 與營收成長的速度成長?

  • John D. Rainey - CFO & Executive VP of Global Customer Operations

    John D. Rainey - CFO & Executive VP of Global Customer Operations

  • Sure, Lisa. It's good to speak with you. So as we think about our credit strategy, obviously, you're very familiar with what we did with the U.S. consumer loan portfolio when we sold that $6 billion portfolio, and now we have a partnership with Synchrony going forward. That's a strategy that we like because it's very much asset-light.

    當然可以,Lisa。很高興和你交流。談到我們的信用策略,你顯然很熟悉我們對美國消費者貸款組合所做的事:我們出售了那個 60 億美元的組合,並且未來與 Synchrony 建立合作關係。我們喜歡這個策略,因為它非常偏向輕資產(asset-light)。

  • When we look at the opportunities for credit in our business, both on the merchant side as well as international consumer, they are significant growth opportunities. And we think that, particularly, like when we look at the merchant lending, that's where our value proposition shines when we can provide working capital loans, understanding the seasonality and the cyclicality of a merchant's business in a way that others can't with access to some of their payment flows. And so we want to continue to grow that.

    當我們看待信用在我們業務中的機會時,無論是商戶端或國際消費者端,都是重大的成長機會。我們認為,尤其在商戶放款方面,當我們能提供營運資金貸款時,我們的價值主張最能發揮——我們能透過掌握部分支付流量,以其他人做不到的方式理解商戶業務的季節性與循環性。因此我們希望持續擴大這部分。

  • But what we don't want, and again, we've demonstrated this with our past experience, we don't want credit to become too capital-intensive to where it takes away from other opportunities that we have. And so I do think that OVAS revenue, and specifically credit revenue, can continue to grow at a rate higher than overall TPV for PayPal. So I think that's definitely true.

    但我們不希望——而且我們也已透過過去的經驗證明——我們不希望信用業務變得過度資本密集,以致於排擠我們的其他機會。因此我確實認為,OVAS 營收,特別是信用相關營收,可以持續以高於 PayPal 整體 TPV 的速度成長。所以我認為這點肯定成立。

  • But if you look at our total credit receivables today, they're about $3.5 billion, inclusive of both merchant and international consumer, far less, roughly half of what the U.S. consumer credit receivables were for us when we sold those and we were a much smaller company then as well. And so we will get to a point, seemingly, given the opportunity that's in front of us on credit, where we will likely go asset-light with someone or both of those portfolios as well. I think that's further down the road, but we want to be very mindful around how we allocate capital in this business to both drive value for our shareholders, but also provide good offerings like credit for our customers.

    但如果你看我們目前的信用應收帳款總額,大約是 35 億美元,包含商戶與國際消費者兩部分;這遠低於——大約只有我們出售美國消費者信用應收帳款時的一半,而且當時我們的公司規模也更小。因此,考量我們在信用方面面臨的機會,我們似乎會走到某個階段,可能也會針對其中一個或兩個組合,與某個合作方採取輕資產(asset-light)的模式。我認為那會是在更後面的路上,但我們希望非常謹慎地思考在這項業務中如何配置資本,一方面為股東創造價值,另一方面也為客戶提供像信用這樣的良好產品。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we have time for one last question from the line of...

    我們還有時間再接最後一個問題,來自……的線上。

  • Daniel H. Schulman - President, CEO & Director

    Daniel H. Schulman - President, CEO & Director

  • We're going to do, actually, 2 more questions, I think.

    其實,我想我們會再回答 2 個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Okay. Our next question comes from the line of Heath Terry with Goldman Sachs.

    好的。下一個問題來自高盛(Goldman Sachs)的 Heath Terry。

  • Heath Patrick Terry - MD

    Heath Patrick Terry - MD

  • Dan, I realize it hasn't closed yet, but can you give us a sense, maybe a little bit of the history of how it came about that PayPal was chosen to do the GoPay deal? I would imagine there was a lot of competition particularly to be the first of its kind.

    Dan,我知道交易還沒完成,但你能否讓我們了解一下,也許稍微談談歷史背景:PayPal 是如何被選中來進行 GoPay 這筆交易的?我想像競爭應該非常激烈,尤其是要成為首例。

  • And then what the road map could look like for the rollout of those services and the integration that you want to see there? And then, when could we see a material cross-border offering in China? And how would that compare to what you're currently able to offer through your Alipay relationship?

    另外,這些服務的推出以及你們希望看到的整合,路線圖可能會是什麼樣子?再者,我們何時能在中國看到具實質規模的跨境產品?這與你們目前透過與支付寶(Alipay)的合作關係所能提供的服務相比,會有何不同?

  • Daniel H. Schulman - President, CEO & Director

    Daniel H. Schulman - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Those are all good questions, Heath. And I think, actually, Heath, given the extent of that question, we'll probably end after this.

    是的。Heath,這些都是很好的問題。而且我想,Heath,鑑於這個問題涵蓋的範圍,我們大概會在回答完這個之後就結束。

  • So first of all, obviously, it's incredibly meaningful event to be the first non-Chinese company to obtain a payments license to process domestic online payments in China. It's a tangible example of China opening its financial market. We have been working this diligently for years. When I say diligent, I mean, literally, almost every single day. We've had calls and have been working this.

    首先,顯然,作為第一家取得支付牌照、可在中國處理境內線上支付的非中國公司,這是一個極具意義的事件。這是中國開放金融市場的一個具體例證。我們多年來一直非常努力推動這件事。我說努力,是指幾乎每天,真的幾乎每一天。我們一直在通話並持續推進相關工作。

  • And we worked quite closely with the PBOC, with other authorities inside of China. We worked with the administration here to enable all this to happen. And I think what we've demonstrated across the globe, and I think was appreciated by various entities within China, is our ability to work closely with regulators. We've invested quite heavily in compliance and risk management, and we're a strong collaborator with the financial ecosystem. We're much more partners with the financial ecosystem than go around the financial ecosystem and be a disruptor. We're innovative, but we're partners with the existing structure.

    我們也與中國人民銀行(PBOC)以及中國境內其他主管機關密切合作。我們也與這裡的主管機關合作,以促成這一切的實現。我認為,我們在全球所展現的能力——而且我想中國境內的各個單位也很認可——就是我們能與監管機構緊密合作。我們在合規與風險管理上投入相當多資源,並且是金融生態系的強力協作者。相較於繞過金融生態系、以顛覆者自居,我們更像是金融生態系的合作夥伴。我們很創新,但我們是既有架構的合作夥伴。

  • And so I think all of that combined, and a very good working relationship and many years of that enabled this event to happen. It's obviously pretty significant for us. It obviously increases our total addressable market quite substantially. China is the world's largest e-commerce market. I think there's something like 500 million online shoppers, and they're going to drive something like $2 trillion of online sales this year, just more than 50% of global online retail.

    因此,我認為上述因素的結合,加上非常良好的合作關係以及多年累積,促成了這件事的發生。這對我們而言顯然相當重大。它也顯著擴大了我們的總可服務市場(TAM)。中國是全球最大的電子商務市場。我想大約有 5 億名線上購物者,他們今年將帶動約 2 兆美元的線上銷售額,略高於全球線上零售的一半。

  • And China is obviously an advanced and sophisticated digital marketplace. But we believe that we can offer a quite differentiated value proposition to both Chinese merchants and consumers by working closely with Chinese financial institutions, the various tech platforms inside of China to connect sort of their vast commerce ecosystem with sort of our vast network of consumers and merchants outside of China. And so this is actually a substantial -- substantially more than what we can do right now.

    而中國顯然是一個先進且成熟的數位市場。但我們相信,透過與中國金融機構以及中國境內各類科技平台緊密合作,把他們龐大的商業生態系與我們在中國境外龐大的消費者與商戶網路連結起來,我們能為中國商戶與消費者提供相當差異化的價值主張。因此,這其實是——遠遠超過我們目前所能做到的。

  • So for instance, think of, before, we could not work with companies and allow Chinese consumers to purchase from PayPal merchants outside of China. And now we can start to facilitate that, working, again, in partnership with Chinese tech platforms and/or Chinese financial institutions. We could take Chinese merchants who may want -- maybe want to sell on other platforms and do payouts back into China through cross-border. We'll be able to enable that through our platform. Multinationals that are doing business in China can use our platform to enable their transactions and for us to process those digital payments coming across there.

    例如,過去我們無法與企業合作,讓中國消費者向中國境外的 PayPal 商戶購買商品。而現在我們可以開始促成這件事,同樣是與中國科技平台和/或中國金融機構以合作夥伴方式共同推進。我們也可以協助可能想要——也許想在其他平台銷售的中國商戶,透過跨境方式把款項匯回中國。我們將能透過我們的平台來實現。在中國經營業務的跨國企業,也可以使用我們的平台來促成其交易,並由我們處理相關的數位支付款項流轉。

  • So a lot of people are focusing just on the domestic consumer part of China. There's obviously opportunities there working in connection with partners inside of China, but there's a tremendous amount that we leverage kind of the strength of our network and the strength of the vast commerce ecosystem inside China, which is significantly digital, and that we think affords us some pretty significant opportunities over at least the medium to long term. So we're quite excited about the opportunity. We'll give a lot more details as we go into next year as the transaction closes, and we'll make sure that we continue to update everybody on this.

    因此,很多人只把焦點放在中國境內的消費者端。當然,透過與中國境內合作夥伴的連結,那裡也有機會;但更重要的是,我們可以運用我們網路的優勢,以及中國境內龐大商業生態系的優勢——那是一個高度數位化的生態系——我們認為這在至少中長期將為我們帶來相當可觀的機會。所以我們對這個機會感到非常興奮。隨著交易在明年完成,我們會提供更多細節,並確保持續向各位更新進展。

  • So again, Heath, thank you for that question. Operator, that will be the last question. I want to thank everybody for joining us today. We appreciate your time, and we look forward to speaking with all of you soon. Thank you.

    再次感謝你,Heath,提出這個問題。接線員,這將是最後一個問題。我要感謝各位今天的參與。感謝大家撥冗,我們也期待很快再與各位交流。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's question-and-answer session. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference call. This concludes the program, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great afternoon.

    今天的問答環節到此結束。各位女士、先生,感謝參與今天的電話會議。本次會議到此結束,您現在可以掛線。各位,祝您下午愉快。