PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to PayPal's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

各位女士、各位先生，大家好，歡迎參加 PayPal 2018 年第四季及全年財報電話會議。（接線員指示）提醒各位，本次通話將被錄音。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Ms. Gabrielle Rabinovitch, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想介紹今天會議的主持人，投資人關係主管 Gabrielle Rabinovitch 女士。請開始。

Thank you, Andrew. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. Welcome to PayPal Holdings' earnings conference call for the fourth quarter and full year 2018. Joining me today on the call are Dan Schulman, our President and CEO; Bill Ready, our EVP, Chief Operating Officer; and John Rainey, our Chief Financial Officer and EVP Global Customer Operations.

謝謝你，Andrew。各位下午好，感謝各位加入我們。歡迎參加 PayPal Holdings 2018 年第四季及全年財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：我們的總裁暨執行長 Dan Schulman；我們的執行副總裁兼營運長 Bill Ready；以及我們的財務長暨執行副總裁（全球客戶營運）John Rainey。

We're providing a slide presentation to accompany our commentary. This conference call is also being webcast, and both the presentation and call are available through the Investor Relations section of our website. We will discuss some non-GAAP measures in talking about our company's performance. You can find the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the presentation accompanying this conference call.

我們提供投影片簡報以配合我們的說明。本次電話會議亦同步網路直播，簡報與通話內容皆可透過我們網站的投資人關係專區取得。我們在討論公司表現時將提及部分非 GAAP 指標。您可在隨本次電話會議提供的簡報中，找到這些非 GAAP 指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標之調節表。

In addition, management will make forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations, forecasts and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. These statements include our guidance for first quarter and full year 2019, our medium-term guidance and the impact and timing of our acquisitions. Our actual results may differ materially from these statements. You can find more information about risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our results in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC and available on the Investor Relations section of our website. You should not rely on any forward-looking statements.

此外，管理層將發表前瞻性陳述，該等陳述係基於我們目前的預期、預測與假設，並涉及風險與不確定性。這些陳述包括我們對 2019 年第一季及全年之指引、我們的中期指引，以及我們收購案的影響與時程。我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述存在重大差異。關於可能影響我們結果的風險、不確定性及其他因素之更多資訊，請參閱我們最近一期的 Form 10-K 年度報告及向 SEC 提交的 Form 10-Q 季度報告，並可於我們網站的投資人關係專區取得。您不應依賴任何前瞻性陳述。

All information in this presentation is as of today's date, January 30, 2019. We expressly disclaim any obligation to update the information presented today.

本簡報中的所有資訊截至今日（2019 年 1 月 30 日）。我們明確聲明不負有更新今日所呈示資訊之任何義務。

With that, let me turn the call over to Dan.

接下來，我把電話交給 Dan。

Thank you, Gabrielle, and thanks, everyone, for joining us on today's call. I'm pleased to report that PayPal had another strong quarter ending 2018 with a record-breaking growth across a number of key customer and financial metrics. Our transformation into an open digital payments platform is clearly resonating with our customers. PayPal continues to benefit from increasing tailwinds as cash continues to digitize and more and more aspects of our lives move to mobile. Our ability to leverage these trends is reflected in both our current results and our forward-looking guidance for 2019.

謝謝你，Gabrielle，也謝謝各位今天加入我們的電話會議。我很高興報告，PayPal 在 2018 年收官的季度再度交出強勁成績，在多項關鍵客戶與財務指標上創下破紀錄的成長。我們轉型為開放式數位支付平台，顯然正引起客戶共鳴。隨著現金持續數位化，以及我們生活中愈來愈多面向轉向行動化，PayPal 持續受惠於日益增強的順風。我們善用這些趨勢的能力，反映在目前的業績表現，以及我們對 2019 年的前瞻性指引之中。

In 2018, we set new benchmarks in terms of spot revenue growth, net new active accounts and engagement across our platform. We developed industry-defining products, acquired leading-edge capabilities, strengthened existing partnerships and entered into new strategic relationships with some of the biggest, most influential global brands in technology, retail and finance.

2018 年，我們在即期營收成長、淨新增活躍帳戶數，以及平台整體互動度方面都創下新標竿。我們開發了具產業指標意義的產品、收購了領先的能力、強化既有合作夥伴關係，並與科技、零售與金融領域中一些規模最大、影響力最深遠的全球品牌建立新的策略關係。

We aspire to be the de facto operating system for mobile and digital commerce around the world, creating value for all of our partners and customers across the entire payments ecosystem. And each year, we make substantial progress towards that goal.

我們的願景是成為全球行動與數位商務的事實上作業系統，為支付生態系中所有合作夥伴與客戶創造價值。而我們每一年都朝這個目標取得重大進展。

Let's start with our numbers. In 2018, we delivered $15.45 billion in revenue, up 18% on a spot basis and FX-neutral basis or 21% normalizing for the sale of our U.S. consumer credit receivables. That represents our highest annual spot revenue growth rate since separation. Revenues in 2018 associated with eBay grew 4% while merchant services grew 22%, more than 5x that of eBay. In the fourth quarter, we generated $4.23 billion of revenue, growing 14% or 21% normalized. This is the first time in our history that we surpassed $4 billion of revenue in a single quarter, and we achieved this milestone despite strong headwinds from slower-than-expected eBay volume growth and greater-than-forecasted FX pressures.

先從數字談起。2018 年，我們實現營收 154.5 億美元，即期口徑與匯率中性口徑皆成長 18%；若將我們出售美國消費者信用應收款的影響正常化，則成長 21%。這是我們自分拆以來最高的年度即期營收成長率。2018 年與 eBay 相關的營收成長 4%，而商戶服務成長 22%，超過 eBay 的 5 倍。第四季我們創造 42.3 億美元營收，成長 14%，或正常化後成長 21%。這是我們歷史上首次單季營收突破 40 億美元；即便面臨 eBay 交易量成長低於預期，以及匯率壓力高於預測等強勁逆風，我們仍達成此里程碑。

For 2018, our overall payment volume grew 26% on a currency-neutral basis to $578 billion. We processed just shy of 10 billion transactions in the year. For the quarter, our TPV, excluding eBay, grew 29% on an FX-neutral basis, significantly outpacing the market as we continue to gain share. In the quarter, eBay had 0 growth in its volume, and it exits 2018 representing just 10% of our overall TPV, down 300 basis points year-over-year.

2018 年，我們的整體支付總額（TPV）以匯率中性口徑成長 26%，達到 5,780 億美元。全年處理的交易筆數接近 100 億筆。就單季而言，剔除 eBay 後的 TPV 以匯率中性口徑成長 29%，顯著超越市場，顯示我們持續提升市占。本季 eBay 的交易量成長為 0，且其在 2018 年底占我們整體 TPV 的比重僅 10%，較去年同期下降 300 個基點。

Our strong revenue growth and disciplined OpEx spend combined to drive a 28% year-over-year increase in 2018 non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.42. In Q4, we delivered $0.69 of non-GAAP EPS, up 26%. As we mentioned last quarter, we invested some of our below-the-line EPS benefits to drive customer acquisition, and that clearly paid off.

我們強勁的營收成長與嚴謹的營運費用（OpEx）支出相結合，推動 2018 年非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）年增 28% 至 2.42 美元。第四季我們交出 0.69 美元的非 GAAP EPS，年增 26%。如同我們上季提到的，我們將部分稅後（below-the-line）的 EPS 利益投入以推動客戶獲取，而這顯然帶來了回報。

One of the clear highlights of Q4 is our net new active number. We added a record 13.8 million net new active accounts to our platform, up 58% year-over-year. Approximately 2.9 million of these net new actives came from our acquisitions with almost 11 million net new actives driven organically, the best quarterly organic net new active number in PayPal's history. We added 39 million net new actives for the year, another all-time record for us. We now have 267 million active accounts on our platform with approximately 246 million consumers shopping at more than 21 million merchants. We are targeting more than 300 million active accounts on our platform by the end of 2019.

第四季最突出的亮點之一是我們的淨新增活躍帳戶數。我們在平台上新增創紀錄的 1,380 萬個淨新增活躍帳戶，年增 58%。其中約 290 萬來自我們的收購案，近 1,100 萬則為自然成長所帶動，創下 PayPal 歷史上單季自然淨新增活躍帳戶的最佳表現。全年我們新增 3,900 萬個淨新增活躍帳戶，再創歷史新高。目前我們平台上共有 2.67 億個活躍帳戶，其中約 2.46 億名消費者在超過 2,100 萬家商戶購物。我們的目標是在 2019 年底前，平台活躍帳戶數超過 3 億。

Even with this acceleration in net new actives, we continue to grow our customer engagement. Engagement grew by 9% to almost 37 transactions per active account. This drove $164 billion in TPV in the quarter, up 25% on an FX-neutral basis, and is our first quarter to ever exceed $150 billion of TPV.

即便淨新增活躍帳戶加速成長，我們仍持續提升客戶互動度。互動度成長 9%，每個活躍帳戶的交易筆數接近 37 筆。這帶動本季 TPV 達 1,640 億美元，以匯率中性口徑成長 25%，並且是我們史上首次單季 TPV 超過 1,500 億美元。

Mobile continues to drive our growth with $67 billion of mobile TPV in Q4 alone, representing 41% of our total TPV. One Touch, with its market leading checkout conversion rates, continues to grow with over 123 million consumers and 11 million merchants opted in.

行動端持續驅動我們的成長，僅第四季行動 TPV 就達 670 億美元，占我們總 TPV 的 41%。One Touch 憑藉市場領先的結帳轉換率持續成長，已有超過 1.23 億名消費者與 1,100 萬家商戶選擇加入。

Venmo continued its strong momentum this holiday season. We are witnessing significant increases in monetized volume growth and monthly active users. This quarter, we drove $19 billion in payment volume through Venmo, an increase of 80% year-over-year. For the full year, Venmo's volume increased 79%, with $62 billion in payment volume processed, and we are on pace for Venmo to drive almost $100 billion in TPV in 2019. For the last 2 consecutive quarters, Venmo's TPV surpassed the volume of TPV we processed from eBay.

Venmo 在這個假期旺季延續強勁動能。我們看到可變現交易量成長與月活躍用戶數顯著提升。本季我們透過 Venmo 推動 190 億美元的支付總額，年增 80%。全年 Venmo 的交易量成長 79%，處理的支付總額達 620 億美元；我們預期 2019 年 Venmo 的 TPV 將接近 1,000 億美元。過去連續兩個季度，Venmo 的 TPV 已超過我們從 eBay 處理的 TPV 量。

Pay with Venmo continues to attract new partners, including Shopify, Hulu, Bigcommerce and Jay-Z's Tidal music service. The total number of Venmo users who have made a monetizable transaction is now 29%, reflecting a steady month-over-month increase. The Venmo card continues to gain significant traction, Instant Transfer revenues continue to increase. And as a result, our Venmo initiatives have produced a revenue run rate going into 2019 that now exceeds $200 million, with revenues being equally split between Instant Cash Out and other monetizable services. I couldn't be more pleased with our revenue trends and the numerous incremental growth opportunities we see for Venmo.

使用 Venmo 付款（Pay with Venmo）持續吸引新合作夥伴，包括 Shopify、Hulu、Bigcommerce 以及 Jay-Z 的 Tidal 音樂服務。已完成可變現交易的 Venmo 用戶占比目前為 29%，並呈現穩定的月增趨勢。Venmo 卡持續獲得顯著採用，Instant Transfer 的營收也持續增加。因此，我們的 Venmo 各項計畫在邁入 2019 年時所帶來的營收年化運行率（revenue run rate）如今已超過 2 億美元，且營收在 Instant Cash Out 與其他可變現服務之間各占一半。我對我們的營收趨勢以及我們在 Venmo 上看到的眾多增量成長機會感到非常滿意。

Braintree continued to grow impressively, demonstrating its market leadership since our acquisition 5 years ago. Last month, we announced the Braintree platform had processed over 500 billion in authorized payment volume since 2014 with more than 6 billion transactions last year alone. We added KFC Australia, Krispy Kreme, Deutsche Telekom, Deutsche Post, Live Nation, Ticketmaster, Acer computers and TripAdvisor Experiences to its platform, joining a powerful list of leading mobile apps using Braintree such as Uber, Wish, Boxed, Facebook and Airbnb.

Braintree 持續展現令人印象深刻的成長，自我們於 5 年前收購以來，一直彰顯其市場領導地位。上個月，我們宣布 Braintree 平台自 2014 年以來已處理超過 5,000 億的授權支付金額，且僅去年一年就完成超過 60 億筆交易。我們將 KFC 澳洲、Krispy Kreme、德國電信（Deutsche Telekom）、德國郵政（Deutsche Post）、Live Nation、Ticketmaster、宏碁電腦（Acer computers）以及 TripAdvisor Experiences 納入其平台，與使用 Braintree 的一系列領先行動應用程式共同加入，包括 Uber、Wish、Boxed、Facebook 與 Airbnb。

PayPal's opportunities to expand internationally continue to grow with our global FI, tech and merchant partnerships continuing to multiply. Two countries I'd like to highlight are India and Japan. In India, we benefited from strong consumer demand since we went live in late 2017. In 2019, we will continue to invest in frictionless experiences for everyday payments by Indian consumers. We're expanding our merchant and financial institution partnerships throughout the country's ecosystem, bringing a truly global platform experience to India's consumers and merchants.

隨著我們在全球金融機構（FI）、科技與商戶合作夥伴關係持續倍增，PayPal 擴展國際市場的機會也持續成長。我想特別強調兩個國家：印度與日本。在印度，自我們於 2017 年底上線以來，受惠於強勁的消費者需求。2019 年，我們將持續投資於為印度消費者的日常支付打造更順暢、無摩擦的體驗。我們正於全國生態系中擴大商戶與金融機構合作夥伴關係，為印度的消費者與商戶帶來真正的全球平台體驗。

I'm also pleased with our progress in Japan. We've launched a suite of services that unlocks the network effects of the PayPal platform for merchants and consumers there. For the consumer, this includes One Touch payment, buyer protection and instant bank funding. Japanese merchants also benefit from instant settlement as well as the increase in customer acquisition and conversion we see in other countries around the world from One Touch. We have also added ANA airlines, the largest airline in Japan, to our growing merchant base.

我也對我們在日本的進展感到滿意。我們已推出一系列服務，為當地商戶與消費者釋放 PayPal 平台的網路效應。對消費者而言，這包括 One Touch 付款、買家保障以及即時銀行入金。日本商戶也可受益於即時結算，以及我們在全球其他國家透過 One Touch 所看到的客戶獲取與轉換率提升。我們也將日本最大的航空公司 ANA 航空納入我們持續成長的商戶基礎。

We've now secured partnerships with over 20 top-tier global financial institutions, including 8 of the top 10 banks in the U.S. In 2018, we saw nearly 40 bank-led marketing campaigns that encouraged their customers to pay with PayPal. One of the most exciting features to come out of our financial institution relationships is enabling our mutual consumers to use their credit card reward points as a tender type in the PayPal Wallet. I'm pleased to announce that we launched this capability with Citi and Discover at the end of Q4 and plan to roll this out to multiple partners in 2019 including Chase, AMEX and Barclaycard. It's been estimated that nearly 10 billion of reward points go unused every year in the U.S. alone. Helping to address that issue is a huge opportunity for consumers and is yet another way that our 2-sided platform is connecting consumers and merchants in unique and powerful ways.

我們目前已與超過 20 家頂級全球金融機構建立合作夥伴關係，其中包括美國前十大銀行中的 8 家。2018 年，我們看到近 40 個由銀行主導的行銷活動，鼓勵其客戶使用 PayPal 付款。從我們與金融機構的合作關係中誕生的最令人振奮的功能之一，是讓共同的消費者能在 PayPal 錢包中將信用卡回饋點數作為一種支付方式。我很高興宣布，我們已於第四季末與 Citi 及 Discover 上線此功能，並計畫於 2019 年推廣至多個合作夥伴，包括 Chase、AMEX 與 Barclaycard。據估計，僅在美國，每年就有近 100 億的回饋點數未被使用。協助解決此問題對消費者而言是巨大的機會，也再次展現我們的雙邊平台如何以獨特且強大的方式連結消費者與商戶。

I'd like to now turn the call over to Bill, who will provide additional color on some of our other recent partnerships.

接下來我想把電話交給 Bill，他將就我們近期其他合作夥伴關係提供更多補充說明。

Thanks, Dan. It's clear that PayPal is becoming the payment platform of choice for marketplaces and multiseller e-commerce platforms. Our top 20 partners and marketplaces total payment volume, excluding eBay, grew by over 40% in 2018, reaching nearly $85 billion. This segment of our business is now much larger and faster-growing than our legacy eBay Marketplace business, and we expect this growth to continue in 2019 as we expand our current partnerships and welcome new partners onto our platform.

謝謝，Dan。很明顯，PayPal 正成為市集型平台與多賣家電商平台的首選支付平台。我們前 20 大合作夥伴與市集的總支付金額（不含 eBay）在 2018 年成長超過 40%，達到近 850 億美元。這一業務區塊如今已遠大於且成長速度快於我們傳統的 eBay 市集業務；隨著我們擴大現有合作並迎接新夥伴加入平台，我們預期此成長將在 2019 年持續。

We are working with some of the leading companies and their respective industries, including Etsy, Uber, Airbnb, Grubhub and Pinterest. In Q4, we began piloting One Touch seller sign-up with noteworthy partners, including Walmart. One Touch seller sign-up significantly reduces the friction of signing up to sell in a new marketplace for merchants and helps marketplaces connect with sellers that have a proven history with PayPal. One of the most pronounced trends in e-commerce over the past several years has been the many new and rapidly growing forums for small businesses to sell to customers around the world. PayPal is helping merchants to manage and grow their business across those new forums, and now with One Touch seller sign-up, we are making it easier than ever for merchants to begin selling in a new marketplace or digital channel. In fact, those merchants that are using PayPal to sell across multiple channels already grow at nearly 3x the rate of those that sell on only one marketplace.

我們正與多家領先企業及其所屬產業合作，包括 Etsy、Uber、Airbnb、Grubhub 與 Pinterest。於第四季，我們開始與重要合作夥伴（包括 Walmart）試點 One Touch 賣家註冊。One Touch 賣家註冊可大幅降低商戶在新市集中註冊開賣的摩擦，並協助市集連結到在 PayPal 上具有良好交易紀錄的賣家。過去幾年電商最顯著的趨勢之一，是出現許多新的且快速成長的平台，讓小型企業能向全球客戶銷售。PayPal 正協助商戶在這些新平台上管理並擴展業務；而透過 One Touch 賣家註冊，我們讓商戶比以往更容易在新的市集或數位通路開始銷售。事實上，使用 PayPal 跨多個通路銷售的商戶，其成長速度幾乎是僅在單一市集銷售商戶的 3 倍。

Through PayPal for Partners and Marketplaces and One Touch seller sign-up, we are connecting small businesses and merchants of all sizes to all the best places to sell, giving them the opportunity to reach more buyers and drive greater sales.

透過 PayPal for Partners and Marketplaces 與 One Touch 賣家註冊，我們正把各種規模的小型企業與商戶連結到所有最佳的銷售場域，讓他們有機會觸及更多買家並帶動更高的銷售額。

Connecting our 21 million-plus merchants to customers wherever they shop is a core element of our efforts to democratize access to the digital economy. We believe these partnerships and the increasing use of our PayPal for Partners and Marketplaces product will help to seamlessly connect buyers and sellers in the world's highest-growth marketplaces and digital sales channels, ultimately making the digital economy more accessible for consumers and merchants around the world.

將我們超過 2,100 萬名商戶與客戶在其購物之處連結起來，是我們推動數位經濟普及化（democratize access）的核心要素。我們相信，這些合作夥伴關係以及 PayPal for Partners and Marketplaces 產品使用量的提升，將有助於在全球成長最快的市集與數位銷售通路中，無縫連結買家與賣家，最終讓全球消費者與商戶更容易參與數位經濟。

Additionally, we're announcing today that we have entered into a strategic partnership with Paymentus, an electronic billing service company that provides e-bill presentment, management and payment capabilities to large-scale merchants in the U.S., Canada and Mexico. PayPal will enable payment processing for Paymentus transactions, including debit card, credit card and ACH through our Braintree platform, as well as PayPal, Venmo and PayPal Credit payment options for existing and new merchants. Additionally, we will leverage the Paymentus platform to enable a consumer bill payment experience within the PayPal app. Not only will billers on the Paymentus platform be able to present bills to PayPal consumers directly, but this feature will also allow other billers and billing platforms to present bills to PayPal consumers, enable payment with PayPal. This opens up bill payment as a vertical for us. And overall, bill payment has the potential to generate tens of billions of dollars of payment volume.

此外，我們今天宣布已與 Paymentus 達成策略合作夥伴關係。Paymentus 是一家電子帳單服務公司，為美國、加拿大與墨西哥的大型商戶提供電子帳單呈現、管理與支付能力。PayPal 將透過我們的 Braintree 平台，為 Paymentus 交易提供支付處理能力，包括簽帳卡、信用卡與 ACH，同時也為現有與新商戶提供 PayPal、Venmo 與 PayPal Credit 的支付選項。此外，我們將運用 Paymentus 平台，在 PayPal App 內啟用消費者帳單支付體驗。Paymentus 平台上的出帳方（billers）不僅能直接向 PayPal 消費者呈現帳單，此功能也將允許其他出帳方與帳單平台向 PayPal 消費者呈現帳單，並支援以 PayPal 付款。這為我們開啟了帳單支付這一垂直領域。整體而言，帳單支付有潛力帶來數百億美元的支付金額。

Dan, I'll hand it back to you now.

Dan，現在我把時間交還給你。

Thanks, Bill. It's great to see deep relationships, like those we have with Walmart and now Paymentus, that utilize the full scope of PayPal's platform to drive mutual value for our joint customers. We expect to welcome additional partnerships throughout 2019.

謝謝，Bill。很高興看到像我們與 Walmart、以及現在與 Paymentus 這樣的深度合作關係，能運用 PayPal 平台的完整範疇，為我們共同的客戶創造彼此的價值。我們預期在 2019 年將迎來更多合作夥伴關係。

I'd like to end my remarks by recognizing the extraordinary generosity of our customers. We shattered our previous Giving Tuesday record this holiday season with nearly $98 million donated to charitable causes in just 1 day. And for the full year, more than $9.5 billion was donated to nonprofit organizations across the world through the PayPal platform. It means a lot to all of us at PayPal that our platform can be used to make such a large difference to nonprofits and charities across the globe.

我想在結語中表揚我們客戶非凡的慷慨。在這個假期季，我們在 Giving Tuesday 單日募款金額接近 9,800 萬美元，打破了先前的紀錄。全年而言，透過 PayPal 平台捐贈給全球非營利組織的金額超過 95 億美元。對我們所有 PayPal 的同仁而言，能讓平台為全球的非營利組織與慈善機構帶來如此巨大的影響，意義重大。

2018 was a strong year for us with record revenue and net new actives, and we are well positioned to continue that growth. The network effects of our scale continue to accelerate. Our breadth of services and products go well beyond checkout, and we are increasingly seen as a must-have platform for retailers who are battling for relevance in the era of digital commerce.

2018 年對我們而言是強勁的一年，營收與淨新增活躍帳戶皆創下紀錄，我們也已做好準備以延續這股成長。我們規模所帶來的網路效應持續加速。我們的服務與產品廣度遠不止於結帳，而在數位商務時代，零售商為了維持相關性而競爭之際，我們也愈來愈被視為不可或缺的平台。

I'm encouraged by the progress we are demonstrating in monetizing Venmo, and I'm confident it will generate significant revenues and profits in the years ahead. Our various international efforts are ramping, and 2019 is shaping up to be another strong year. We'll need to execute against the backdrop of an unpredictable world economy, but we have the tools and capabilities to continue our growth and progress in the years to come.

我對我們在 Venmo 變現方面所展現的進展感到鼓舞，也有信心它將在未來幾年帶來可觀的營收與獲利。我們各項國際布局正在加速推進，2019 年看來將是另一個強勁的年度。我們需要在難以預測的全球經濟背景下執行，但我們具備工具與能力，能在未來幾年持續成長並取得進展。

With that, I'll turn it over to John. John?

接下來，我把時間交給 John。John？

Thanks, Dan. I'd also like to thank all of our customers, partners and employees for making 2018 a great year. We achieved notable milestones and are pleased with what we've accomplished. In 2018, we delivered significant innovation across our platform, introducing new features and services for our consumers and merchants globally. We also made 4 acquisitions that have expanded our offerings in addressable markets; completed the sale of our U.S. consumer credit portfolio, which resulted in approximately $6.5 billion of cash proceeds; and announced key issuer technology and merchant partnerships. Entering 2019, we are well positioned to build on our momentum and continue delivering strong revenue growth with margin expansion. We remain focused on creating long-term, sustainable shareholder value.

謝謝你，Dan。我也要感謝我們所有的客戶、合作夥伴與員工，讓 2018 年成為精彩的一年。我們達成了重要里程碑，並對已完成的成果感到滿意。2018 年，我們在平台上推出了多項重大創新，為全球消費者與商戶導入新功能與新服務。我們也完成了 4 項收購，擴大了我們在可觸及市場中的產品與服務；完成出售我們的美國消費者信用投資組合，帶來約 65 億美元的現金收入；並宣布了關鍵的發卡機構技術與商戶合作夥伴關係。展望 2019 年，我們已具備良好條件在既有動能上再接再厲，持續實現強勁的營收成長並擴大利潤率。我們仍專注於創造長期、可持續的股東價值。

I'd now like to discuss our fourth quarter results. Total payment volume was $164 billion, an increase of 23% in spot and 25% on a currency-neutral basis. Our 2018 acquisitions contributed approximately 2 points of growth. Merchant services volume on a currency-neutral basis grew 29% to $147 billion. P2P volume, which is part of merchant services, grew 46% to $39 billion and represented approximately 24% of total payment volume versus 20% in Q4 last year. In comparison, on a foreign currency-neutral basis, we saw no growth in volume associated with eBay. And on a spot basis, this volume declined approximately $300 million from Q4 2017.

接下來我想討論我們第四季的業績。總支付金額（TPV）為 1,640 億美元，即期匯率下成長 23%，以固定匯率（currency-neutral）計成長 25%。我們在 2018 年的收購約貢獻了 2 個百分點的成長。以固定匯率計，商戶服務交易量成長 29% 至 1,470 億美元。P2P 交易量（屬於商戶服務的一部分）成長 46% 至 390 億美元，約占總支付金額的 24%，高於去年第四季的 20%。相較之下，以固定匯率計，與 eBay 相關的交易量未見成長；而以即期匯率計，該交易量較 2017 年第四季約減少 3 億美元。

eBay Marketplaces represented 10% of volume on our platform, down from 13% in the fourth quarter last year. Revenue in the fourth quarter increased 14% on both a spot and a currency-neutral basis to $4.23 billion. Adjusting for the sale of receivables to Synchrony, revenue growth would have been approximately 21%. Acquisitions contributed approximately 1.5 points to revenue growth in the quarter. The translation effect from the stronger dollar negatively impacted revenue by $63 million. This impact was offset by $39 million in revenue from our hedge program. As a result, the net effect of the stronger dollar was a headwind of $24 million in the quarter.

eBay Marketplaces 占我們平台交易量的 10%，低於去年第四季的 13%。第四季營收在即期與固定匯率口徑下皆成長 14%，至 42.3 億美元。若調整與 Synchrony 的應收款出售，營收成長約為 21%。收購在本季約貢獻 1.5 個百分點的營收成長。美元走強的換算影響使營收減少 6,300 萬美元；此影響被我們避險計畫帶來的 3,900 萬美元營收所抵銷。因此，美元走強的淨影響在本季形成 2,400 萬美元的不利因素。

Exiting 2018, at current rates, we estimate that our hedge positions would result in the recognition of $171 million in international transaction revenue in 2019. U.S. revenue grew 9% versus Q4 2017 and approximately 20% adjusting for the credit receivable sale. International revenue grew 19% on a currency-neutral basis. On a spot basis, transaction revenue grew 19% in the quarter. Revenue from other value-added services declined 19%. Normalizing for the receivables sale, revenue from other value-added services would have grown approximately 35%. In the quarter, we recognized approximately $55 million of revenue from Synchrony related to transitioning loan, servicing and collections.

截至 2018 年底，以目前匯率估計，我們的避險部位將使 2019 年認列 1.71 億美元的國際交易營收。美國營收較 2017 年第四季成長 9%，若就信用應收款出售進行調整則約成長 20%。國際營收以固定匯率計成長 19%。以即期匯率計，本季交易營收成長 19%。其他加值服務營收下滑 19%；若就應收款出售進行常態化調整，其他加值服務營收將約成長 35%。本季我們亦認列約 5,500 萬美元來自 Synchrony 的營收，與貸款移轉、服務與催收的過渡相關。

Revenue from our eBay Marketplaces was lower than expected in the quarter. On average, for the 8 quarters preceding Q4 2018, volume related to eBay grew 6%, currency neutral. On the same basis, this growth rate dropped to 0 in the fourth quarter. For the first time in 2 years, revenue declined versus the prior year's quarter. This decline was unrelated to the transition to managed payments, which had no material impact on our results. Despite this, geographic and product diversification, including from our acquisitions, Venmo monetization and our growing APAC business allowed us to continue to deliver solid revenue growth. In the fourth quarter, transaction take rate was 2.35%. This is the first sequential increase in transaction take rate since separation. Versus Q4 2017, transaction take rate declined 9 basis points, which is the lowest level of decline we've experienced on a year-over-year basis. Growth in our P2P business, continued deceleration of eBay and lower cross-border volumes contributed to the reduction in transaction take rate.

本季來自 eBay Marketplaces 的營收低於預期。平均而言，在 2018 年第四季之前的 8 個季度，與 eBay 相關的交易量以固定匯率計成長 6%；但在第四季，同口徑下成長率降至 0。這是兩年來首次營收較前一年同期下滑。此下滑與轉換至 managed payments 無關，該轉換對我們的業績沒有重大影響。儘管如此，地理與產品多元化（包括收購帶來的貢獻）、Venmo 變現，以及我們在亞太（APAC）業務的成長，使我們仍能持續交出穩健的營收成長。第四季交易抽成率（transaction take rate）為 2.35%。這是自分拆以來交易抽成率首次出現連續季度的上升。相較 2017 年第四季，交易抽成率下降 9 個基點，為我們年對年降幅最低的一次。P2P 業務成長、eBay 持續放緩以及跨境交易量較低，共同導致交易抽成率下降。

Total take rate in Q4 was flat sequentially and down 20 basis points from the prior year, primarily as a result of the receivable sale. Both transaction take rate and total take rate benefited from revenue related to our hedge gains.

第四季總抽成率（total take rate）較前一季持平，較去年同期下降 20 個基點，主要是應收款出售所致。交易抽成率與總抽成率皆受惠於我們避險收益所帶來的相關營收。

Volume-based expenses increased 21% in Q4 to $1.9 billion. Transaction expense represented 96 basis points as a rate of TPV, flat sequentially and versus last year. We saw an increase in card-based funding which was offset by P2P growth. Transaction loss was 18 basis points as a rate of TPV, flat sequentially and an improvement of 1 basis point versus Q4 2017. An improvement in our Venmo loss rate contributed to the stronger performance versus last year. Loan loss was 3 basis points as a rate of TPV.

以交易量為基礎的費用在第四季成長 21% 至 19 億美元。交易費用（transaction expense）占 TPV 的比率為 96 個基點，較前一季及去年同期皆持平。我們看到以卡片為基礎的資金來源增加，但被 P2P 成長所抵銷。交易損失（transaction loss）占 TPV 的比率為 18 個基點，較前一季持平，且較 2017 年第四季改善 1 個基點。Venmo 損失率的改善促成了較去年更佳的表現。貸款損失（loan loss）占 TPV 的比率為 3 個基點。

Transaction margin dollars grew 9% for the fourth -- from the fourth quarter last year to $2.3 billion. Transaction margin as a rate was 55%, flat sequentially and a decline of approximately 250 basis points from 2017. The reduction in revenue from the receivable sale, which began to affect other value-added services in Q3 '18, in conjunction with the related held-for-sale accounting treatment, which started in Q4 '17, affected both the growth in transaction margin dollars as well as the rate.

第四季交易毛利金額（transaction margin dollars）較去年第四季成長 9% 至 23 億美元。交易毛利率（transaction margin as a rate）為 55%，較前一季持平，但較 2017 年下降約 250 個基點。應收款出售導致的營收減少（自 2018 年第三季開始影響其他加值服務），加上相關的待售（held-for-sale）會計處理（自 2017 年第四季開始），同時影響了交易毛利金額的成長以及毛利率。

Nontransaction-related expenses grew 7% versus last year. Growth in these expenses was affected by both the lapping of the held-for-sale accounting changes, which resulted in a lower rate of growth year-over-year as well as an increase in nontransaction-related expenses related to our acquisitions. Normalizing for both of these, nontransaction-related expenses grew 9%.

非交易相關費用（nontransaction-related expenses）較去年成長 7%。這些費用的成長同時受到兩項因素影響：一是待售會計處理變更的比較基期效應，使年對年成長率較低；二是與收購相關的非交易費用增加。若將兩者常態化調整，非交易相關費用成長為 9%。

When we reported Q3 results in October, we indicated that we expected to see higher-than-usual, below-the-line benefits in the fourth quarter and discussed our plans to opportunistically reinvest this upside. Accordingly, in the quarter, we ramped our spend in several key strategic investment areas including sales and marketing, which increased 21%.

我們在 10 月公布第三季業績時曾表示，預期第四季將出現高於往常的稅後（below-the-line）利益，並討論了將把這部分上行空間機會性再投資的計畫。因此，本季我們在數個關鍵策略投資領域加大支出，包括銷售與行銷費用成長 21%。

General and administrative expenses grew 27% in the fourth quarter, predominantly driven by acquisition-related costs. In the aggregate, our 2018 acquisitions added approximately 5.5 points of growth to the increase in nontransaction-related expenses in the fourth quarter.

第四季一般及行政費用（general and administrative expenses）成長 27%，主要由收購相關成本所驅動。整體而言，我們 2018 年的收購在第四季非交易相關費用的增幅中約增加了 5.5 個百分點的成長貢獻。

Operating income grew 13% to $913 million, and operating margin declined 20 basis points year-over-year in Q4. Adjusting for acquisitions, operating margin would have expanded 80 basis points. Other income in the quarter increased by $67 million, primarily due to net unrealized gains on minority investments. Strong revenue growth and operating efficiencies resulted in non-GAAP EPS growth of 26% to $0.69.

營業利益成長 13% 至 9.13 億美元，第四季營業利益率年對年下降 20 個基點。若調整收購因素，營業利益率將擴張 80 個基點。本季其他收入增加 6,700 萬美元，主要來自少數股權投資的未實現淨收益。強勁的營收成長與營運效率提升，使非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）成長 26% 至 0.69 美元。

We ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and investments of $10 billion and short-term borrowings of $2 billion. Free cash flow in the quarter was $910 million, which equates to $0.22 of free cash flow for every dollar of revenue generated.

本季結束時，我們的現金、約當現金與投資為 100 億美元，短期借款為 20 億美元。本季自由現金流為 9.10 億美元，等同於每產生 1 美元營收可帶來 0.22 美元的自由現金流。

I'd now like to discuss our guidance for the full year and the first quarter of 2019. The guidance we are providing today is in line with the preliminary outlook we provided in October when we reported our third quarter results.

接下來我想討論我們對 2019 年全年與第一季的財測指引。我們今天提供的指引與 10 月公布第三季業績時所提供的初步展望一致。

For the full year 2019, we expect TPV to grow in the mid-20s percentage range. We expect to generate revenue between $17.85 billion and $18.1 billion, representing currency-neutral growth of 16% to 17%, or 21% to 21% adjusting for the sale to Synchrony. We expect non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.84 to $2.91, representing growth of 17% to 20%.

就 2019 年全年而言，我們預期 TPV 將以 20% 中段的百分比區間成長。我們預期營收介於 178.5 億美元至 181 億美元之間，代表以固定匯率計成長 16% 至 17%；或若就出售給 Synchrony 的交易進行調整，成長 21% 至 21%。我們預期非 GAAP 每股盈餘為 2.84 美元至 2.91 美元，代表成長 17% 至 20%。

Our guidance includes the expectation that our 2018 acquisitions will contribute approximately 1.5 points of growth to revenue in 2019 and $0.08 to $0.10 of dilution to earnings per share. In 2019, we plan to deliver operating margin expansion with continued operating leverage and efficiencies more than offsetting this dilutive effect. In 2020, we expect these acquisitions to be accretive to our earnings.

我們的指引包含以下預期：我們於 2018 年完成的收購將在 2019 年為營收貢獻約 1.5 個百分點的成長，並對每股盈餘造成 $0.08 至 $0.10 的稀釋。於 2019 年，我們計劃透過持續的營運槓桿與效率提升來實現營業利益率擴張，且這些效益將足以抵銷上述稀釋影響。於 2020 年，我們預期這些收購將對我們的盈餘具增益效果。

The diversity of our business is allowing us to maintain our guidance ranges while absorbing a number of headwinds as we enter 2019. While the lack of eBay growth remains a challenge and geopolitical uncertainty is affecting growth in places like China and Europe, we are confident in our ability to offset these headwinds through new sources of growth, including our expanding marketplace relationships, Venmo monetization, domestic India as well as the strong secular growth driving digital payments and mobile commerce.

我們業務的多元性使我們在邁入 2019 年之際，能在吸收多項逆風的同時維持我們的指引區間。儘管 eBay 成長乏力仍是一項挑戰，且地緣政治不確定性正影響中國與歐洲等地的成長，我們仍對自身有能力透過新的成長來源來抵銷這些逆風充滿信心；這些來源包括我們持續擴大的市集合作關係、Venmo 變現、印度國內市場，以及推動數位支付與行動商務的強勁長期結構性成長。

We anticipate our non-GAAP effective tax rate will be between 17% and 19%. For 2019, we anticipate free cash flow will exceed $3 billion. With approximately $10 billion in cash and an investment-grade debt rating, we are in a strong position to continue to invest with discipline in PayPal's growth. In 2018, we returned more than $3.5 billion to cash -- in cash to shareholders through stock repurchases and spent approximately $2.7 billion on acquisitions. In 2019, we will continue to balance investment with return of capital while maintaining an efficient capital structure. Our acquisition pipeline is healthy, and our balance sheet gives us the flexibility to move quickly and be opportunistic. We believe that we are uniquely positioned to be a consolidator. At the same time, we plan to continue to return cash to shareholders, consistent with our stated commitment for capital return.

我們預期非 GAAP 有效稅率將介於 17% 至 19%。就 2019 年而言，我們預期自由現金流將超過 30 億美元。憑藉約 100 億美元的現金以及投資等級的債務評等，我們具備強勁的條件，得以持續以審慎的方式投資於 PayPal 的成長。2018 年，我們透過股票回購以現金形式向股東返還超過 35 億美元，並在收購上支出約 27 億美元。2019 年，我們將在維持高效率資本結構的同時，持續在投資與資本回饋之間取得平衡。我們的收購管線健全，而我們的資產負債表也賦予我們快速行動與把握機會的彈性。我們相信我們具備獨特的條件，能成為產業整合者。同時，我們也計劃持續向股東返還現金，與我們既定的資本回饋承諾一致。

For the first quarter, we expect revenue in the range of $4.08 billion to $4.13 billion or 11% to 13% growth on a currency-neutral basis. Adjusted for the sale to Synchrony, we expect that this growth rate would be 19% to 20%. In the first quarter, we are currently forecasting the continuation of several of the trends that emerged in the back half of 2018. These include weak eBay performance as well as a more challenging macro in China and the U.K. Our plans also anticipate a stronger dollar relative to the euro, pound and Canadian dollar to continue to be a headwind in Q1. We expect non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of $0.66 to $0.68.

就第一季而言，我們預期營收將介於 40.8 億美元至 41.3 億美元，或以固定匯率基礎計算成長 11% 至 13%。若就出售予 Synchrony 的部分進行調整，我們預期該成長率將為 19% 至 20%。在第一季，我們目前預測 2018 年下半年出現的若干趨勢將延續，包括 eBay 表現疲弱，以及中國與英國更具挑戰性的總體環境。我們的規劃亦預期美元相對於歐元、英鎊與加幣走強，將在第一季持續構成逆風。我們預期非 GAAP 每股盈餘將介於 $0.66 至 $0.68。

In summary, we are pleased with our performance and the progress we've made growing our business and advancing our competitive positioning. In 2018, we had many operational and financial accomplishments. A few notable milestones include: surpassing 250 million active accounts; Venmo surpassing eBay in total payment volume on our platform; processing more than $50 billion of payment volume in a single month; and generating both $4 billion in revenue and more than $1 billion in profit before taxes for the first time in a quarter.

總結而言，我們對自身表現以及在擴大業務與提升競爭定位方面所取得的進展感到滿意。2018 年，我們在營運與財務方面達成多項成果。幾個值得一提的里程碑包括：活躍帳戶數突破 2.5 億；Venmo 在我們平台上的總支付量超越 eBay；單月處理超過 500 億美元的支付量；以及首次在單一季度同時創造 40 億美元營收與超過 10 億美元的稅前利潤。

We delivered a great year, and our 2018 results leave us on strong footing to pursue our strategic objectives in 2019 and beyond. Our team is focused on disciplined execution against our priorities and moving our business forward. As 2019 begins, we find ourselves operating in a macro environment characterized by more variability. From what we see, economic growth is stronger and more resilient than recent market volatility would indicate. We have a well-diversified portfolio of products and markets in which we operate and are prepared to react should economic conditions change. We remain committed to our long-term financial targets and are confident that the strength of our business, flexibility of our balance sheet and operational discipline will allow us to continue delivering value to our shareholders.

我們交出了一個非常出色的年度成績，而 2018 年的結果也讓我們在 2019 年及更長遠的未來，能以穩健的基礎追求我們的策略目標。我們的團隊專注於依照優先事項進行有紀律的執行，並推動業務向前發展。隨著 2019 年展開，我們所處的總體環境呈現更高的變動性。就我們所見，經濟成長比近期市場波動所顯示的更為強勁且更具韌性。我們擁有高度多元化的產品與市場組合，並已準備好在經濟情勢改變時做出反應。我們仍致力於長期財務目標，並相信我們業務的實力、資產負債表的彈性以及營運紀律，將使我們能持續為股東創造價值。

With that, I'll hand it back over to the operator for questions. Thank you.

接下來，我把時間交還給接線員進行提問。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 JPMorgan 的 Tien-Tsin Huang。

I wanted to ask, for the first time -- looking at the fourth quarter, you didn't exceed your revenue outlook, I think, for the first time in a while. So I was hoping maybe you can comment on maybe what surprised you. Or can you rank maybe what was a little bit softer than expected?

我想請教一下，這是第一次——回頭看第四季，你們似乎沒有超出你們的營收展望，我想這是有一段時間以來的第一次。所以我希望你們能評論一下，可能是什麼讓你們感到意外。或者你們能否排序一下，哪些部分比預期稍微疲弱？

Sure, Tien-Tsin, this is John. It's good to speak with you. Our revenue fell within the range that we provided, a little bit lower than the midpoint. But as we look at what transpired during the quarter, there are 2 things that stand out that I think are most notable. The first, as we discussed in our prepared remarks, is eBay. And I'll just -- I'll give you some context to that. Had eBay performed for us in the fourth quarter like it did in the third quarter, that would've been an incremental $32-ish million for the quarter. The other headwind was currency, FX, and we talked about that was an impact of $24 million to our quarter. So if you just took those 2, we would have been well above the guidance range that we provided. Other than that, we were pleased with our performance in the quarter. But -- and I think it also demonstrates the diversity of our portfolio given that we've got so many different geographies in which we operate as well as so many different product offerings that we have. But those are the 2 things that stand out.

當然，Tien-Tsin，我是 John。很高興和你交流。我們的營收落在我們所提供的區間內，略低於區間中點。但回顧本季發生的情況，有兩件事我認為最值得注意。第一個，如同我們在事先準備的講稿中所提到的，是 eBay。我稍微提供一些背景：如果 eBay 在第四季對我們的表現能像第三季那樣，該季將可額外增加約 3,200 萬美元左右。另一個逆風是匯率、外匯（FX），我們也談到其對本季的影響約為 2,400 萬美元。因此，如果只看這兩項，我們本來會明顯高於我們所提供的指引區間。除此之外，我們對本季表現感到滿意。而且——我認為這也展現了我們投資組合的多元性，因為我們在許多不同地理區域營運，也擁有許多不同的產品組合。但最突出的就是這兩件事。

All right. That's helpful. That makes a lot of sense. Maybe a quick follow-up, if you don't mind. Just I wanted to ask, last year, active user growth was a really nice surprise. It validated the growth and momentum in the business. I'm curious, if we're looking at 2019, what metric might emerge this year for us to watch kind of like what we saw with active user growth last year? Could it be engagement, Venmo monetization, choice adoption? Just trying to think what we should hone in on.

好的，這很有幫助，也很合理。若你不介意，我再快速追問一下。去年，活躍用戶成長是一個非常令人驚喜的亮點，驗證了業務的成長與動能。我很好奇，如果我們看 2019 年，今年會出現哪個指標，值得我們像去年觀察活躍用戶成長那樣去關注？會是互動度、Venmo 變現、choice 的採用率嗎？我只是想想我們應該把焦點放在哪裡。

Tien-Tsin, it's Dan. So yes, clearly, net new actives this year were a big highlight for us. We drove 39 million in the year, 11 million organic in the fourth quarter alone. Those are big records for us. At the same time that we were driving that surge in net new actives, engagement was going up too. It went up 9%. Now at 37. So you've got a whole host of new -- net new actives coming on, engagement going up. And for us, those are the 2 key metrics that we look at. I mean, those -- everyone looks at financial metrics. But what drives our financial metrics are how many net new customers are we bringing on and what kind of engagement are we driving with them. And I think, by the way, 2019 is going to be another strong quarter. We ended with 267 million net new actives. And we said we're going to have -- we're targeting more than 300 million actives on the platform by the end of '19. So obviously, 2019's going to -- we think is going to be another strong quarter for that. I would say though the one thing that we're looking at and we're quite pleased with is really the rapid adoption of monetizable services on Venmo. We exit 2018 north of a $200 million revenue run rate on Venmo. That's from literally almost nothing months and months ago from when we first started on that, in the beginning of the year. So you're seeing a lot of people question, "Can we monetize Venmo?" And what we've always said about monetizing Venmo is it's not monetizing so much. It's adding value-added services that actually increase the value that a Venmo user gets by being part of that Venmo platform. And so we're seeing accelerating growth on that. And we don't want to get, again, too far ahead of ourselves on that. But I would say we're pretty pleased with what we're seeing on Venmo. It's really going from strength to strength.

Tien-Tsin，我是 Dan。是的，很明顯，今年的淨新增活躍用戶是我們的一大亮點。我們全年新增 3,900 萬，光第四季就有 1,100 萬的自然新增。這些對我們而言都是很大的紀錄。同時，在推動淨新增活躍用戶激增的同時，互動度也在上升，提升了 9%，目前達到 37。因此，你同時看到大量淨新增活躍用戶加入、互動度上升。對我們而言，這兩個就是我們關注的關鍵指標。我的意思是——大家都會看財務指標；但驅動我們財務指標的，是我們帶來了多少淨新增客戶，以及我們與他們之間帶動了什麼樣的互動度。順帶一提，我認為 2019 年也會是另一個強勁的季度。我們期末達到 2.67 億活躍用戶。我們也說過，我們的目標是在 2019 年底讓平台活躍用戶超過 3 億。因此很明顯，2019 年——我們認為在這方面也會是另一個強勁的季度。不過我會說，我們正在觀察且相當滿意的一件事，是 Venmo 上可變現服務的快速採用。我們在 2018 年底時，Venmo 的營收年化運行率已超過 2 億美元。這在幾個月前幾乎還是零，因為我們是在年初才剛開始推動這件事。因此你會看到很多人質疑：「我們能把 Venmo 變現嗎？」而我們一直以來對 Venmo 變現的說法是：與其說是變現，不如說是加入加值服務，實際上提升 Venmo 用戶成為 Venmo 平台一員所獲得的價值。因此我們看到那方面的成長正在加速。我們也不想在這件事上——再次——走得太快、太超前。但我會說，我們對 Venmo 的表現相當滿意，確實是愈來愈強。

And our next question comes from the line of Darrin Peller with Wolfe Research.

接下來的問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Darrin Peller。

I do want to hone in on that net new user growth. It was much bigger than we saw in the past couple of quarters. I mean, again, if you back out even (inaudible) at 11 million new users was, I think, a record as you said on a quarterly basis. So just give us a little more color, if you don't mind, on the breakdown of that. How much of that is Venmo? And then I mean, you talked about, I think, 30 million. You exceeded that, as you mentioned, quite a bit for the year, almost 39 million, I think it was. So is there a number we could look to 2019 on that front? And then just what kinds of engagement plans do you have to really enhance that? But we thought that was a standout number.

我確實想聚焦在淨新增用戶成長上。這比我們過去幾個季度看到的要大得多。我的意思是，再次，如果你把甚至（聽不清）扣除掉，1,100 萬名新用戶我認為是你所說的、按季度來看的一個紀錄。所以如果你不介意的話，請再多給我們一些細節，說明這個拆分。當中有多少是 Venmo？另外，我的意思是，你談到我想是 3,000 萬。你如你所提到的那樣，全年大幅超過了這個數字，幾乎是 3,900 萬，我想是這樣。所以在 2019 年這方面我們可以參考的一個數字是什麼？然後你們有哪些互動／參與（engagement）計畫，來真正強化這一點？我們覺得這是一個非常突出的數字。

Yes, thanks. So I'll just do a quick math with you for this year. We wound up at 267 million actives on the platform. We're targeting more than 300 million at the end of this year. You do the math there, we're saying at least another 33 million coming on to -- in the year. And so I think that's probably a reasonable number to be thinking about. So what's happening with that now, how is that driving? What's some color around that? Really, the majority is core PayPal. And then you've got Venmo continuing quarter after quarter after quarter to have incredibly strong net new actives. I mean, the virality of Venmo and the network effects on core PayPal are clearly coming into play. You've got 21 million-plus merchants accepting PayPal. Consumers see that, want to be a part of it. You've got 246 million-plus consumers using PayPal. Every merchant now wants to be a part of that. So you've got a good network effect both on core PayPal and on Venmo. And then I think what's really important, a lot of people think about the top of the funnel, but really net new actives is a combination of top of the funnel and bottom. So our churn rate is improving as well. Why is the churn rate improving? It's improving because the customer experiences and the breadth of services that consumers are utilizing with us and their engagement is increasing. I give a ton of credit to Bill and his team for creating those experiences because I really think we're moving towards best-in-class. Whether that's Checkout, whether that'd be P2P experiences, whether that'd be our mobile app, whether it'd be choice as well, these are all driving increased engagement and helping at the bottom part of the funnel. One other thing that I mentioned in my remarks that should be emphasized is we're finally beginning to see, as we said we would, the impact of all these partnerships beginning to drive a noticeable amount of net new actives onto the platform. We saw over 40 bank-led marketing campaigns that encouraged their customers to come onto the platform. Why are they doing that? They're doing that because we have a great partnership together. It drives a ton of incremental value and volume to our FI partners, and it's clearly a win-win for both of us. And then I talked a little bit about it. Our architecture now and our software stack is now more able to be deployed in a more wholesome manner across the world. And so we're able to deliver more and more experiences and products to multiple countries. I pointed out India and Japan, but that would be true in countries like France and others as well where we're beginning to see an uptick in net new actives globally as well. And so I think we've got still a lot of runway when it comes to net new actives. And I believe you'll see another good number posted from us this year.

是的，謝謝。我先跟你快速算一下今年的數字。我們最終在平台上有 2.67 億活躍帳戶。我們的目標是在今年年底超過 3 億。你算一下，我們的意思是今年至少還會再新增 3,300 萬——在一年內加入。因此我認為這大概是一個合理、可以用來思考的數字。那麼現在這是怎麼發生的、是如何推動的？能提供一些背景嗎？其實大多數來自 PayPal 核心業務。然後 Venmo 仍然一季接一季、再接一季地帶來極其強勁的淨新增活躍用戶。我的意思是，Venmo 的病毒式傳播（virality）以及 PayPal 核心業務的網路效應顯然正在發揮作用。你們有超過 2,100 萬家商戶接受 PayPal。消費者看到這點，就想成為其中一部分。你們有超過 2.46 億名消費者在使用 PayPal。每個商戶現在都想成為其中一部分。所以在 PayPal 核心業務和 Venmo 上，你們都有很好的網路效應。然後我認為真正重要的是，很多人只想到漏斗頂端，但其實淨新增活躍用戶是漏斗頂端與底端的組合。因此我們的流失率也在改善。為什麼流失率在改善？因為客戶體驗、以及消費者透過我們所使用的服務廣度與他們的參與度都在提升。我非常肯定 Bill 和他的團隊打造這些體驗的功勞，因為我真的認為我們正朝向同級最佳（best-in-class）邁進。不論是結帳（Checkout）、P2P 體驗、我們的行動 App，或是選擇（choice）本身，這些都在推動更高的參與度，並在漏斗底端提供幫助。我在發言中提到的另一點也應該被強調：我們終於開始看到——正如我們所說會看到的——所有這些合作夥伴關係開始帶來可觀的淨新增活躍用戶進入平台。我們看到超過 40 個由銀行主導的行銷活動，鼓勵他們的客戶加入平台。他們為什麼這麼做？因為我們彼此有很好的合作關係。這為我們的金融機構（FI）合作夥伴帶來大量增量價值與交易量，顯然對雙方都是雙贏。然後我也稍微談到，我們現在的架構與軟體堆疊（software stack）更能以更完整的方式在全球部署。因此我們能把更多體驗與產品交付到多個國家。我提到了印度與日本，但在法國等其他國家也同樣適用；我們也開始看到全球淨新增活躍用戶的上升。因此我認為在淨新增活躍用戶方面，我們仍有很長的跑道。我相信你們今年會看到我們再交出一個不錯的數字。

And our next question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

接下來的問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 James Faucette。

I just wanted to ask a quick follow-up question on eBay and whether the -- I guess, a little bit slower transaction volume there was the result of their experimentation with other payment methods or if you just think that it was overall slower than what you had thought transaction volumes on the platform overall. Hopefully that question makes sense. And then the second, I guess, part of my question is related to Venmo monetization. You gave a target for 2019. How should we think about the contribution of that from merchants versus things like Instant Transfer, et cetera?

我想就 eBay 追問一個簡短的後續問題：那邊——我想——交易量稍微放緩，是否是他們嘗試其他支付方式所造成的結果？還是你只是認為整體而言，平台上的交易量比你原先預期的更慢？希望這個問題說得通。然後第二部分，我想是關於 Venmo 的變現。你們給了 2019 年的目標。我們應該如何看待其中來自商戶的貢獻，相對於像即時轉帳（Instant Transfer）等等的項目？

You bet, James. Thanks for those, they're 2 good questions. I'll take the first one around eBay, and Bill will take the second part around Venmo. So on the eBay side, we saw this on their conference call as well. Clearly, Marketplaces is slowing down for them. As John mentioned in his remarks, we saw 0 growth in TPV on that. And if you look at what they announced on their call for intermediated payments, it's well less than 1% of the GMV that we see presented to us. So it really was not the impact. They clearly are slowing in their Marketplace growth. And as John said, part of this is -- for us, is we're able to absorb that because of the breadth of our portfolio and our capabilities. I think that's a really important thing to highlight. Because volume was going to be leaving eBay. It's leaving now in a much more straight line, unfortunately, because they're not having the growth that I'm sure they hope to drive as well in Marketplace. And so at the end of our operating agreement, which is 18 months from now when they finally move into intermediated payments which could be 24, 36 months from now, eBay is going to be a much smaller part of our business than even any of us initially thought when we were talking about this originally. And so the fact that we're affirming our annual guidance that we gave 3 months ago, we feel very comfortable with that both on the top and the bottom line, I think really just highlights just how diversified our platform is. We're welcoming new partners like Paymentus. I mean, Paymentus could be one of our top 10 customers with the volumes that they're driving. You've got Venmo monetization really accelerating. And I'll let Bill talk about that right now. But I think we're just seeing slower eBay growth. And I think we're seeing strength through our platform to offset that, which all in, as we look over the medium and long term, actually is probably a positive.

當然可以，James。謝謝，這是兩個好問題。我先回答第一個關於 eBay 的問題，第二部分關於 Venmo 則由 Bill 來回答。就 eBay 而言，我們在他們的電話會議上也看到了這點。很明顯，他們的 Marketplaces 業務正在放緩。正如 John 在發言中提到的，我們看到那部分的 TPV 成長為 0。如果你看他們在電話會議上宣布的中介支付（intermediated payments），那遠低於我們所看到並呈現給我們的 GMV 的 1%。所以這真的不是影響因素。他們的 Marketplace 成長顯然正在放緩。而如 John 所說，對我們而言，其中一部分是——我們能夠吸收這個影響，因為我們的產品組合與能力的廣度。我認為這是一個非常重要、需要強調的點。因為交易量本來就會從 eBay 流出。很不幸地，現在它以更直線的方式流出，因為他們沒有達到我相信他們也希望在 Marketplace 推動的成長。因此在我們的營運協議結束時——也就是 18 個月後，當他們最終轉向中介支付（可能是 24、36 個月後）——eBay 在我們業務中的占比將比我們任何人當初談到這件事時所想的還要小。因此，我們仍確認 3 個月前給出的全年指引，無論在營收端或獲利端我們都非常有信心，我認為這真的凸顯了我們平台的多元化程度。我們也在迎接像 Paymentus 這樣的新合作夥伴。我的意思是，以他們帶動的交易量來看，Paymentus 可能會成為我們前十大客戶之一。你也看到 Venmo 變現正在真正加速。我現在就讓 Bill 來談。但我認為我們只是看到 eBay 成長放緩。同時我們也看到平台的強勁表現足以抵消這點；整體而言，當我們放眼中長期，這其實可能是正面的。

Yes. And on Venmo monetization, your question there asking about the composition, if you'd have asked us a few months ago, I think the perception was that most of the monetization happening there was around Instant Cash Out. And one of the things that we feel really great about that $200 million-plus annual revenue run rate that we exited the year at is that, that's actually split about evenly between Instant Cash Out and the commerce-related items and other items where we monetize, be they Venmo card, Pay with Venmo and the related services around that. So we see each of those, Instant Cash Out, Venmo card and Pay with Venmo, all growing really, really nicely. Dan talked about in his comments some of the fantastic brands that have come on to Venmo. We launched with Uber in August and September of 2018. We've really seen that ramp nicely as well as other great services like Hulu and others that have come on to Venmo. So we're really seeing the commerce side of Venmo gain traction, food ordering services like Grubhub and Seamless, Uber Eats. These are -- many of these are daily, high-frequency type transactions. We see the same with the card, where it's really getting into everyday spend. So we really feel great about the broad base set of monetization initiatives across Venmo. It is far more than just Instant Cash Out.

是的。關於 Venmo 變現，你的問題是在問組成結構。如果你幾個月前問我們，我想市場的看法是那裡的大部分變現都來自即時提領（Instant Cash Out）。而我們對於我們在年底時達到的年化營收運行率（annual revenue run rate）超過 2 億美元這件事感到非常振奮的一點是：實際上，這大約平均分布在即時提領（Instant Cash Out）以及與商務相關的項目和其他我們變現的項目之間，包含 Venmo 卡、使用 Venmo 付款（Pay with Venmo）以及相關服務。因此我們看到這幾項——即時提領、Venmo 卡與使用 Venmo 付款——都成長得非常、非常好。Dan 在他的評論中談到一些加入 Venmo 的很棒品牌。我們在 2018 年 8 月與 9 月與 Uber 上線。我們也確實看到那邊的成長爬坡（ramp）表現良好，還有像 Hulu 等其他很棒的服務也加入了 Venmo。因此我們真的看到 Venmo 的商務端正在取得進展，像是 Grubhub、Seamless、Uber Eats 這些餐飲訂購服務。這些——其中許多是每日、高頻率類型的交易。我們在卡片端也看到同樣情況，它真的正在進入日常消費。因此我們對 Venmo 在各項變現計畫上的廣泛基礎感到非常有信心。它遠不只是即時提領（Instant Cash Out）。

Yes. And you're seeing more and more of the user base of Venmo understand that we have these new value-added services. I think the number of users went from 24% to 29%, so a nice increase quarter-over-quarter. One other thing I forgot to say is on the eBay side. One thing Bill mentioned in his remarks, and I think it's very important, is that we are now working with marketplaces, around the world, that last year alone did $85 billion in TPV. Significantly larger than eBay, growing at 41% overall. We expect more partnerships like that to come onto those marketplace solutions. And what we're doing there is helping sellers sell in multiple marketplaces using PayPal. This One Touch seller activation allows a seller, say an eBay seller, to sign up for a marketplace, literally take all of their information, sign up and start making transactions with almost one touch, one click. And so -- and when sellers do that, their sales increase, at least with PayPal, an average of about 3x. So we think we can help small businesses through these new capabilities and certainly drive a ton of marketplace growth overall, both with eBay and outside of eBay, especially with these kinds of capabilities.

是的。而且你會看到越來越多 Venmo 的用戶群開始理解我們有這些新的加值服務。我認為使用這些服務的用戶占比從 24% 提升到 29%，因此季度環比有不錯的成長。還有一點我剛才忘了提的是 eBay 這邊。Bill 在他的發言中提到的一點，我認為非常重要：我們現在正與全球各地的市集平台合作，而僅去年一年，這些平台的 TPV 就達到 850 億美元。規模顯著大於 eBay，整體成長 41%。我們預期會有更多類似的合作夥伴加入這些市集解決方案。我們在那裡所做的，是協助賣家使用 PayPal 在多個市集平台上銷售。這個 One Touch 賣家啟用功能，讓賣家（例如 eBay 賣家）可以註冊某個市集平台，幾乎是把他們所有資訊直接帶過去，完成註冊並開始交易，幾乎一觸即成、一鍵完成。因此——當賣家這麼做時，他們的銷售額（至少透過 PayPal）平均會增加約 3 倍。我們認為可以透過這些新能力協助小型企業，並且確實能推動整體市集成長，不論是在 eBay 內或 eBay 之外，尤其是透過這類能力。

And our next question comes from the line of Heath Terry with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Heath Terry。

So there's obviously been a lot of discussion around the net new actives added in the quarter and over the course of the year, but just wanted to dig into that a little bit deeper. Assuming, and feel free to correct me if this is the wrong assumption, but assuming that these net new actives start off at a lower level of activity, is there any way to quantify the increase in activity among the existing base of users, kind of like a same-store sales number or something? Or alternatively, what TPV will look like when these users reach the level of activity that you see among your average user?

顯然，大家對本季度以及全年新增淨活躍用戶（net new actives）的討論很多，但我想再更深入挖一下。假設——如果這個假設不對請隨時糾正我——假設這些新增淨活躍用戶一開始的活躍程度較低，有沒有辦法量化既有用戶基礎的活躍度提升？有點像同店銷售（same-store sales）那樣的指標？或者換個角度，當這些用戶的活躍程度達到你們平均用戶的水準時，TPV 會呈現什麼樣子？

This is Bill. A related element, which I think will maybe get to some of what you're asking is as we look at each of those cohorts that comes on and how those cohorts mature, a related question we often get is that as we have accelerated the number of net new actives, do we see any deterioration in the quality of those cohorts? Do they mature more slowly? Are they less active? And one of the great things is that even as we have significantly increased the number of net new actives coming onto the platform each quarter, each new cohort, we see stronger than the last in terms of how they engage and how they mature over time. So while we don't break out the maturation to the level of detail you're asking about, even as we've gotten to larger and larger cohorts, we see each new cohort being stronger than the cohorts from years past, which is part of why you also see engagement. Oftentimes, a large influx of net new actives will have a dilutive effect on engagement, you still see us having really strong engagement growth even as we bring those on largely because of the quality of the cohorts, rather than diminishing as you get to larger cohorts, is actually improving because we're getting those larger cohorts through an expanded set of products and user engagement with more and more products over time.

我是 Bill。一個相關的面向，我想可能能回應你部分的問題：當我們觀察每一批加入的用戶群（cohort）以及這些 cohort 如何成熟時，我們常被問到一個相關問題：當我們加速新增淨活躍用戶的數量時，這些 cohort 的品質是否有任何惡化？他們成熟得更慢嗎？活躍度更低嗎？而很棒的一點是，即使我們每季加入平台的新增淨活躍用戶數量大幅增加，每一個新的 cohort 在參與度以及隨時間成熟的表現上，都比上一個更強。因此，雖然我們不會把成熟度拆解到你所詢問的那種細節層級，但即使 cohort 規模越來越大，我們仍看到每一個新的 cohort 都比過去幾年的 cohort 更強，這也是你看到參與度提升的原因之一。很多時候，大量新增淨活躍用戶會對參與度造成稀釋效應，但你仍看到我們在引入大量新用戶的同時，參與度成長依然非常強勁，主要是因為 cohort 的品質；而且不是隨著 cohort 變大而下降，反而在改善，因為我們是透過更廣泛的產品組合帶來更大的 cohort，並且用戶隨時間推移會使用越來越多的產品、參與度也更高。

Your question is a good one. We won't do the math for you, but obviously, when you bring on, call it, almost 14 million net new actives in the quarter, the number of transactions that they've done is very small, right? Because you brought them on throughout the quarter. So it's a dilutive effect to the growth of your overall base engagement scores. So it's obviously higher than the numbers that we report because of that -- just because of that math around that. And so that's why we're so pleased to show kind of a steady increase in engagement. So we had 9% last quarter, I believe, 9% this quarter. And so even as you're seeing that substantial increase, you're seeing a steadying amount. As that normalizes, you'll start to see that creep up, that percent engagement.

你的問題問得很好。我們不會替你做數學計算，但很顯然，當你在一個季度新增、比如說，接近 1,400 萬名淨活躍用戶時，他們完成的交易筆數會非常少，對吧？因為他們是在整個季度陸續加入的。所以這會對你整體用戶基礎的參與度指標成長造成稀釋效應。因此，因為這個——就只是這個數學因素——實際上既有用戶的參與度會高於我們所報告的數字。也因此我們很高興能呈現參與度的穩定提升。所以我記得上季是 9%，這季也是 9%。因此即使你看到新增淨活躍用戶大幅增加，參與度仍維持穩定。當這些因素正常化後，你會開始看到參與度百分比逐步上升。

And our next question comes from the line of Lisa Ellis with MoffettNathanson.

下一個問題來自 MoffettNathanson 的 Lisa Ellis。

Bill -- I'll direct this one to Bill. Because you commented in your prepared remarks around the role that PayPal is playing with these other marketplaces. I wanted to ask specifically about some of the e-com enablement players, players like Shopify and Wix that are starting to make some noise around creeping into payments. How do you think about the role of PayPal vis-a-vis those players? I mean, would those be potential acquisition candidates? Or are they more like -- it would make more sense to partner? Or are they actually more like frenemies? How do you think about that group?

Bill——我把這題直接問 Bill。因為你在事先準備的發言中提到 PayPal 在這些其他市集平台中扮演的角色。我想特別問一些電商賦能（e-com enablement）業者，例如 Shopify、Wix 這類開始在「切入支付」方面引起一些聲量的公司。你如何看待 PayPal 相對於這些業者（vis-a-vis）的角色？我的意思是，他們會是潛在的併購標的嗎？還是更像——合作會更合理？或者他們其實更像亦敵亦友（frenemies）？你怎麼看這一群？

We partner with a wide range of these e-commerce enablement players. And even as they are bundling payments into their offering, oftentimes we are working closely with them to help make that happen. And PayPal-branded payments would be a very meaningful part of that for many of those players given that they cater to small businesses. And small businesses really rely upon the trust that PayPal brings for the buyer or our conversion differences that already outshine competitors across the industry in a small business context particularly on these types of platforms, the relative conversion rate of PayPal versus something else stands even farther apart. So we tend to have really strong partnerships there. And I think that really ties into what we were talking about with our efforts to get small businesses to all the best forums to sell. I think we've been talking a lot about the deceleration of eBay. One of the things that has happened is that over the last decade, small businesses that would have had only 1 or a couple places to sell a decade ago, now have many, many place to sell. And PayPal is connecting those small businesses to the many places they sell. Some of those might be e-commerce enablement platforms like some of the ones you mentioned. Some of that may be other marketplaces. Some of that may be more vertical-specific offerings. But across each of those, we're helping to connect those small businesses to all the very best places to sell, which is why when we talk about our marketplace and partners business outside of eBay, that's already $85 billion-plus in volume, much larger than eBay overall and growing at 40%-plus year on year. So as these small businesses are finding lots of other great places to sell like e-commerce enablement platforms or rapid growth marketplaces, we tend to be a preferred provider to connect those small businesses to those platforms.

我們與各式各樣的電商賦能業者都有合作。即使他們把支付打包進自己的產品方案中，很多時候我們也會與他們緊密合作，協助他們把這件事做成。而對其中許多業者而言，PayPal 品牌的支付會是非常重要的一部分，因為他們服務的是小型企業。小型企業非常仰賴 PayPal 為買家帶來的信任，或是我們在轉換率上的差異——在小型企業情境下，我們的轉換表現本來就優於全產業的競爭對手，特別是在這類平台上，PayPal 相對於其他方案的轉換率差距會更大。因此我們通常在那裡有非常強的合作關係。我認為這也呼應了我們剛才談到的：我們致力於讓小型企業能在所有最好的場域銷售。我們談了很多 eBay 成長放緩（deceleration）。過去十年發生的一件事是：十年前小型企業可能只有 1、2 個銷售管道，現在則有非常非常多。PayPal 正在把這些小型企業連接到他們銷售的眾多場域。其中一些可能是你提到的電商賦能平台；一些可能是其他市集平台；一些可能是更垂直領域的解決方案。但在每一種情境下，我們都在協助把小型企業連接到所有最好的銷售場域。這也是為什麼當我們談到 eBay 之外的市集與合作夥伴業務時，那部分的交易量已經超過 850 億美元，整體規模遠大於 eBay，且年增率超過 40%。因此，當這些小型企業在電商賦能平台或高速成長的市集平台等許多其他優質場域找到銷售機會時，我們往往是他們偏好的服務提供者，用以把這些小型企業連接到那些平台。

Terrific. And do they leverage PayPal's services like your -- like working capital services or the invoicing capabilities? Like do those actually get -- do you sort of, like, deliver those directly to the merchants? Or does that actually also work through those platforms? Would they look to enable those capabilities on their platforms?

太好了。那他們會使用 PayPal 的服務嗎？例如你們的——像是營運資金（working capital）服務或開立發票（invoicing）功能？這些能力實際上會——你們是直接提供給商戶嗎？還是也會透過那些平台來運作？他們會希望在自己的平台上啟用這些能力嗎？

It really can be both. One of the things you see, oftentimes, those merchants are coming to us directly for those because the trend that you see is that merchants are not choosing one platform to sell in. They are choosing many to sell in, and then PayPal becomes the aggregation point for them to connect to each of those platforms. And so like with One Touch seller sign-up, as they're discovering more and more new platforms out there, one of the most difficult things for that small business is the sign-up and vetting process. The marketplace has to figure out is that business trustworthy or not? Are they fraudulent? And we're able to alleviate those pain points, not only for the seller to sign up, but also for the marketplace to know that they're bringing on a trustworthy seller to their platform. So we become an aggregation point for that small business, and some of those services, we're able to partner with other marketplaces or e-commerce enablement platforms. Some of those, we provide directly to the merchant since we're an aggregation point for them across many of those marketplaces and digital channels.

其實兩種都有可能。你會看到的一件事是，很多時候商戶會直接來找我們使用那些服務，因為你看到的趨勢是：商戶不會只選擇一個平台來銷售；他們會選擇很多平台來銷售，而 PayPal 就成為他們連接各平台的整合匯聚點（aggregation point）。因此，像 One Touch 賣家註冊一樣，當他們發現越來越多新平台時，對小型企業而言最困難的事情之一就是註冊與審核（vetting）流程。市集平台必須判斷這家企業是否可信？是否涉及詐欺？而我們能夠緩解這些痛點，不僅讓賣家更容易註冊，也讓市集平台知道他們引入的是可信賣家。因此我們成為小型企業的整合匯聚點；而其中一些服務，我們能與其他市集平台或電商賦能平台合作提供；另一些則由我們直接提供給商戶，因為我們是他們跨多個市集與數位通路的整合匯聚點。

And our last question comes from the line of George Mihalos with Cowen.

我們最後一個問題來自 Cowen 的 George Mihalos 專線。

Just wanted to ask as a point of clarification, John, if we look at the guide for next year, on the surface, you're sort of reiterating it. But it appears you're absorbing, say, another point or so hit from lower eBay growth, and then added to that, the FX. So I'm just curious, is that the right way to think about it, that the core business outside of that is accelerating and if there's anything else in there? And then just secondly, as we think of Venmo at this sort of $200 million-plus run rate, is there anything you can say about the profitability of the business of the segment here? Is that in the black right now with this run rate?

我只是想釐清一下，John，如果我們看明年的指引，表面上看起來你們算是在重申它。但看起來你們正在吸收例如因 eBay 成長較低而帶來的額外約 1 個百分點左右的衝擊，此外還加上外匯（FX）的影響。所以我很好奇，這樣理解是否正確：也就是說，撇除這些因素之外的核心業務其實正在加速，並且裡面是否還有其他因素？另外第二點，當我們把 Venmo 視為目前這種年化約 2 億美元以上的營運規模時，你能否談談這個業務／此分部的獲利能力？以這樣的規模來看，現在是否已經轉盈？

Sure, George. I'm going to take your second question first and then go back to the question before that. No, Venmo is not in the black yet, and I don't want to be specific with profitability of any one part of our business. That's not something we do. But I can give you some color in terms of how we think about this internally. Prior to some of the great progress that we've made in monetizing Venmo this year, we effectively were providing a service that we weren't monetizing in any way. And so the losses were growing as volume grew. And the first priority for us was to stop that rate of loss from growing, and we've done that. The next phase for us is to get Venmo to breakeven. And that's not something that's going to happen in the next quarter or 2, but it's -- there's line of sight to that with what we're doing. And then the third phase is to really put our foot on the pedal and see the same type of profitability in this platform, or more perhaps, that we do with PayPal and some of our other services, so that's where we are with that right now. But no, it's not in the black today. With respect to 2019 and the guide, you're right. We are seeing really strong performance with the core business. We also have -- we've launched new products that are -- pretty early on, yes, and partnerships. And we're pretty excited about the promise that those hold. And so just from a revenue side and a volume growth side, there's a lot of opportunity there. I'll also, because I'm the CFO, I'd be remiss not to mention what's being done on the expense side. The teams across the board, our commercial teams, Bill's teams and even the more staff group functions are doing a really good job of growing but not having our costs grow in line with that volume. And again, that goes back to an effort that the broad team did -- began 18 to 24 months ago where we talked about rewiring our business to allow us to grow at a very low marginal cost, and this is a complete team effort. There's not necessarily one area that I can point to. This is across every aspect of our company. And so with that, we hope to have another year like we did in 2018, where you're seeing significant earnings per share growth and significant revenue growth and continuing to create a lot of shareholder value for our investors.

當然可以，George。我先回答你的第二個問題，然後再回到前一個問題。不，Venmo 目前還沒有轉盈，而且我不想就我們業務中任何單一部分的獲利能力做具體說明；這不是我們一貫的做法。但我可以提供一些我們內部如何看待這件事的背景。今年在 Venmo 變現方面取得一些重大進展之前，我們基本上是在提供一項完全沒有以任何方式變現的服務。因此，隨著交易量成長，虧損也在擴大。我們的第一優先事項是先阻止虧損擴大的速度，而我們已經做到了。接下來的階段是讓 Venmo 達到損益兩平。這不會在接下來一兩個季度就發生，但就我們正在做的事情而言，是看得到達成路徑的。第三個階段則是真正加大力道，看看這個平台能否達到與 PayPal 以及我們其他一些服務相同類型的獲利能力，甚至可能更高；這就是我們目前的進度。但不，今天它還沒有轉盈。至於 2019 年與指引，你說得沒錯。我們看到核心業務表現非常強勁。我們也已經推出了一些新產品——是的，仍在相當早期——以及合作夥伴關係。我們對它們所帶來的潛力感到非常興奮。因此，從營收面與交易量成長面來看，機會很多。另外，因為我是 CFO，如果不提到費用端正在做的事情就說不過去了。各團隊全面地——我們的商務團隊、Bill 的團隊，甚至是較偏後勤的職能團隊——都做得很好：在成長的同時，並沒有讓成本隨著交易量等比例成長。再者，這也回到整個團隊在 18 到 24 個月前開始推動的一項工作：我們談到要重新改造（rewiring）我們的業務，讓我們能以非常低的邊際成本成長，而這是一個完整的團隊努力。並不一定有某一個我能特別指出的單一領域；這是貫穿公司各個面向的。因此，我們希望能再有像 2018 年那樣的一年：你會看到顯著的每股盈餘成長、顯著的營收成長，並持續為投資人創造大量股東價值。

Great. Thanks again, everybody, for joining us. We appreciate your time, and we look forward to speaking with all of you soon. Thanks again.

很好。再次感謝各位今天加入我們。我們感謝你們撥冗參與，也期待很快能再與各位交流。再次謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program, and you may all disconnect. Everyone, have a great afternoon.

各位女士、先生，感謝您參與今天的會議。至此本次議程結束，您可以斷線。祝各位下午愉快。