PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PayPal's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call.

早安，歡迎參加 PayPal 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

My name is Sarah, and I will be your conference operator today.

我叫莎拉，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Steve Winoker, PayPal's Chief Investor Relations Officer.

現在，我想將節目單交給今天會議的主持人、PayPal 首席投資者關係官史蒂夫·維諾克 (Steve Winoker)。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thanks, Sarah.

謝謝，莎拉。

Welcome to PayPal's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call.

歡迎參加 PayPal 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

I'm joined by CEO, Alex Chriss; and CFO, Jamie Miller.

與我一起參加的是執行長 Alex Chriss；和財務長傑米米勒（Jamie Miller）。

Our remarks today include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties.

我們今天的評論包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述。

Actual results may differ materially from these statements.

實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。

Our commentary is based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today.

我們的評論是基於我們對當今世界和我們業務的最佳看法。

As described in our earnings press release, SEC filings, and on our website, those elements may change as the world changes.

正如我們的收益新聞稿、美國證券交易委員會文件和我們的網站上所述，這些因素可能會隨著世界的變化而變化。

Now over to you, Alex.

現在輪到你了，亞歷克斯。

Thanks, Steve, and thank you to everyone for joining us this morning.

謝謝，史蒂夫，也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。

PayPal had a successful 2024 delivering strong operating and financial results.

PayPal 在 2024 年取得了成功，並實現了強勁的營運和財務表現。

The improvements we've made to branded checkout, P2P, and Venmo plus the progress we've on our price-to-value strategy are beginning to show up in our results.

我們對品牌結帳、P2P 和 Venmo 所做的改進以及我們在價格價值策略上的進展開始在我們的業績中顯現。

We set out at the beginning of 2024 to make it a transition year to narrow our focus and to make sure we are executing the initiatives that matter the most to the growth of our business.

我們從 2024 年初開始，將其作為過渡年，以縮小我們的重點並確保我們正在執行對業務成長最重要的舉措。

One year later, I'm proud that we've laid a strong foundation for durable growth.

一年後，我很自豪我們為持久成長奠定了堅實的基礎。

We drove branded checkout transaction margin dollar growth in each quarter.

我們每季都推動品牌結帳交易利潤的成長。

US-branded checkout growth accelerated in the fourth quarter to exit the year at a high point as our new checkout innovations are scaling to customers.

隨著我們的新結帳創新不斷擴大以滿足客戶需求，美國品牌結帳業務在第四季度加速成長，並在年底達到高點。

Driven by a renewed focus on pricing-to-value, Braintree has meaningfully contributed to our transaction margin dollar growth over the last three quarters.

在重新關注定價價值的推動下，Braintree 在過去三個季度為我們的交易利潤美元成長做出了重大貢獻。

Venmo monetization is making great strides with over 20% growth in Venmo debit card and Pay with Venmo monthly active accounts.

Venmo 貨幣化正在取得長足進步，Venmo 金融卡和 Venmo 支付月活躍帳戶成長超過 20%。

Put simply, the PayPal team executed well during our transition year and made strong progress on our transformation.

簡而言之，PayPal 團隊在我們的過渡年裡表現良好，並在我們的轉型方面取得了長足的進步。

The investments we made throughout 2024 allowed us to perform well during the holiday shopping season and finish the year strongly.

我們在 2024 年全年進行的投資使我們在假期購物季表現良好並以強勁勢頭結束這一年。

Total active accounts returned to growth in '24 as we enhanced our value proposition and brought innovation to market.

隨著我們增強了價值主張並將創新推向市場，2024年活躍帳戶總數恢復成長。

Total payment volume grew 10% to nearly $1.7 trillion.

總支付金額成長 10%，達到近 1.7 兆美元。

We delivered $32 billion in revenue, up 7%.

我們實現了 320 億美元的收入，成長 7%。

We reached an inflection point for transaction margin dollar growth, which increased 5% excluding the benefit of interest on customer balances.

我們達到了交易利潤美元成長的轉折點，若不計入客戶餘額利息收益，則成長了 5%。

Our non-GAAP earnings per share increased 21% year over year.

我們的非公認會計準則每股收益年增21%。

We generated $6.8 billion in free cash flow and completed $6 billion in share buybacks.

我們產生了 68 億美元的自由現金流，並完成了 60 億美元的股票回購。

For 2025, we expect another solid year of transaction margin dollar growth and strong free cash flow, which Jamie will discuss.

我們預計 2025 年將是交易利潤率再次穩健成長、自由現金流強勁的一年，Jamie 將對此進行討論。

As we look ahead to '25, I want to share the areas we're most focused on.

展望25年，我想分享我們最關注的領域。

First is innovation.

第一是創新。

With the leadership team in place and the velocity with which we're executing, we've proven we can bring innovations to market.

在領導團隊的指導下以及我們的執行速度，我們已經證明我們能夠將創新推向市場。

In 2024, we rolled out new branded checkout experiences, launched PayPal Everywhere, introduced Fastlane, and expanded PayPal Complete Payments.

2024 年，我們推出了全新的品牌結帳體驗，推出了 PayPal Everywhere，推出了 Fastlane，並擴展了 PayPal Complete Payments。

We are not stopping there, and we'll continue to innovate to solve our customers' biggest challenges.

我們不會就此止步，我們將繼續創新以解決客戶面臨的最大挑戰。

The second is product adoption. 2025 will be focused on scaling adoption of our innovations.

第二是產品採用。 2025 年的重點將是擴大我們創新的採用。

We have world-class products and solutions and will continue educating customers about all we have to offer.

我們擁有世界一流的產品和解決方案，並將繼續向客戶介紹我們提供的所有產品。

In '24, we completely revamped our marketing and go-to-market playbook.

24年，我們徹底修改了我們的行銷和市場進入策略。

We're just scratching the surface, so you can expect more ahead.

我們只是觸及了表面，因此您可以期待更多。

Third is partnerships.

第三是合作關係。

Last year, we formed significant partnerships to drive Fastlane adoption and bring more value to customers.

去年，我們建立了重要的合作夥伴關係，以推動 Fastlane 的採用並為客戶帶來更多價值。

We are building on our leadership position in payments and commerce and establishing ourselves as the platform that leading brands want to work with.

我們正在鞏固我們在支付和商業領域的領導地位，並將自己打造為領先品牌願意合作的平台。

We will strike even more partnerships throughout 2025.

我們將在 2025 年建立更多的合作關係。

Fourth is efficiency and effectiveness.

第四是效率和效益。

In 2024, we reduced headcount by 10%.

2024年，我們的員工人數減少10%。

We made deliberate investments in AI and automation, which are critical to our future.

我們對人工智慧和自動化進行了深思熟慮的投資，這對我們的未來至關重要。

This year, we are prioritizing the use of AI to improve the customer experience and drive efficiency and effectiveness within PayPal.

今年，我們優先使用人工智慧來改善客戶體驗並提高 PayPal 的效率和效力。

We expect to make meaningful progress on all four of these areas in '25.

我們期望在2025年在這四個領域都取得有意義的進展。

Let me walk you through how this focus will drive our results this year and beyond.

讓我向您介紹一下這項重點將如何推動我們今年及以後的業績。

In '25, our key strategic initiatives will be to win Checkout, scale Omni, grow Venmo, and accelerate SMB.

在 25 年，我們的主要策略舉措是贏得 Checkout、擴大 Omni、發展 Venmo 並加速 SMB。

Our teams are organized around these priorities and tracking progress daily.

我們的團隊圍繞著這些優先事項進行組織並每天追蹤進度。

Starting with win Checkout, our number one priority.

從贏得結帳開始，這是我們的首要任務。

With our upgraded experiences, we now have the leading checkout solution on desktop and mobile.

憑藉我們升級的體驗，我們現在擁有領先的桌面和行動裝置結帳解決方案。

When fully implemented, the upgraded experiences reduce latency by more than 40% and drive more than 100 basis points of conversion lift on average, consistent with the early results we've shared.

全面實施後，升級後的體驗可將延遲降低 40% 以上，平均轉換率提升 100 個基點以上，這與我們分享的早期結果一致。

These upgrades are now live for more than 25% of US checkout traffic, which is up from 5% last quarter.

這些升級目前適用於超過 25％ 的美國結帳流量，高於上一季的 5％。

We have a lot of room to grow here as adoption increases in the US and then expands globally.

隨著美國採用率的提高以及全球採用率的擴張，我們還有很大的成長空間。

On top of the benefit of higher conversion, these new experiences improve the presentment of our branded markets and solutions like Buy Now, Pay Later, which can help to expand our share of wallet.

除了提高轉換率的好處之外，這些新的體驗還改善了我們品牌市場和「先買後付」等解決方案的呈現，有助於擴大我們的錢包份額。

BNPL customers spend 30% more on average.

BNPL 客戶平均支出增加 30%。

And merchants see higher sales after adding BNPL messaging to their sites, which is critical when one more sale can make all the difference.

商家在其網站上添加 BNPL 資訊後，銷售額有所提高，這一點至關重要，因為多一次銷售就能帶來很大的不同。

In 2024, we drove approximately $33 billion in BNPL total payment volume, growing 21% from the prior year.

2024 年，我們推動的 BNPL 總支付額約為 330 億美元，比前一年成長 21%。

Consumers and merchants trust the PayPal brand and experience.

消費者和商家信賴 PayPal 品牌和體驗。

We have a lot more we can do with BNPL in the next year.

明年我們可以利用 BNPL 做更多的事情。

Merchants continue to show strong interest in Fastlane.

商家持續對Fastlane表現出濃厚的興趣。

In the fourth quarter, we focused on selling Fastlane to large brands that can drive future volume.

第四季度，我們專注於將 Fastlane 銷售給可以推動未來銷售的大品牌。

I'm excited to share that we have signed NBCUniversal, Roku, and StockX and are working on implementation.

我很高興地告訴大家，我們已經與 NBCUniversal、Roku 和 StockX 簽約，並且正在努力實施。

We now have nearly 2,000 merchants up and running with Fastlane.

目前，我們已經有近 2,000 家商家與 Fastlane 合作。

We expect an inflection point in adoption when we expand our go-to-market efforts and bring Fastlane to even more merchants through Adyen, Global Payments, and Fiserv this year.

我們預計，當我們今年擴大市場推廣力度並透過 Adyen、Global Payments 和 Fiserv 為更多商家提供 Fastlane 時，採用率將達到一個轉折點。

From early data, what's exciting is that 25% of Fastlane users have never had a PayPal account before, and more than half have a PayPal account, but haven't been active in the last 12 months.

從早期數據來看，令人興奮的是，25％的Fastlane用戶之前從未擁有過PayPal帳戶，超過一半的用戶擁有PayPal帳戶，但在過去的12個月中從未活躍過。

To say that simply, 75% of Fastlane consumers are new or dormant PayPal users.

簡單地說，75％的Fastlane消費者都是新用戶或休眠PayPal用戶。

This means that Fastlane not only improves conversion for our merchants, but also introduces more shoppers to PayPal and enables us to re-engage in active users.

這意味著 Fastlane 不僅可以提高我們商家的轉換率，還可以為 PayPal 帶來更多購物者，並使我們能夠重新吸引活躍用戶。

We shared that one of our strategies is to build deeper relationships with our largest merchants as we renegotiate deals to reflect the value we provide.

我們分享了我們的策略之一是與我們最大的商家建立更深層的關係，重新談判交易以反映我們提供的價值。

A key part of that is adding value-added services that improve the experience for our mutual customers.

其中一個關鍵部分是增加增值服務，以改善我們共同客戶的體驗。

We built a suite of world-class value-added services and continue to introduce new ones.

我們建構了一系列世界一流的加值服務，並不斷推出新的服務。

In the fourth quarter, we launched FX-as-a-service, which is automated currency conversion, and it's already live for Meta.

在第四季度，我們推出了 FX-as-a-service，即自動貨幣兌換服務，目前它已經在 Meta 上上線。

We also actively scaled the use of network tokens for automated billing capabilities, which is live with merchants including Instacart, Mint Mobile, and Poshmark.

我們也積極擴大網路代幣的使用範圍，以實現自動計費功能，目前該功能已與 Instacart、Mint Mobile 和 Poshmark 等商家合作。

The expansion of our value-added services is a key driver of the transaction margin dollar growth we are delivering.

加值服務的擴展是我們實現交易利潤成長的主要驅動力。

Next, let's talk about our initiative to expand beyond e-commerce to become truly omnichannel.

接下來，讓我們來談談我們超越電子商務、實現真正全通路發展的措施。

We launched PayPal Everywhere in September, which is driving significant increases in debit card adoption and opening new categories of spend.

我們於 9 月推出了 PayPal Everywhere，這將大幅推動借記卡採用率的提高並開闢新的消費類別。

We added more than 1.5 million first-time PayPal debit card users in the fourth quarter, and debit card TPV was up nearly 100% in Q4.

我們在第四季度增加了超過 150 萬首次使用 PayPal 金融卡的用戶，借記卡 TPV 在第四季度增長了近 100%。

Our most active reward categories are gas, groceries, and restaurants.

我們最活躍的獎勵類別是汽油、雜貨和餐廳。

These new capabilities are driving deeper relationships with our users and more PayPal volume overall, off-line and online.

這些新功能將加深我們與用戶的關係，並增加 PayPal 線上和線下的整體交易量。

The average debit card actives generate 5 times the transaction activity and 2 times the average revenue per account compared to users who only use branded checkout.

與僅使用品牌結帳的用戶相比，金融卡平均活躍度可產生 5 倍的交易活動和 2 倍的每個帳戶平均收入。

This is leading to a habituation.

這會導致習慣化。

Power users, which are PayPal consumer accounts transacting more than 100 times per year, grew more than 9% year over year in the fourth quarter.

超級用戶（每年交易次數超過 100 次的 PayPal 消費者帳戶）數量在第四季年增超過 9%。

So we are seeing strong momentum today with our omnichannel push, but we're just getting started.

因此，我們今天看到全通路推廣的強勁勢頭，但我們才剛起步。

We plan to expand our PayPal Everywhere value proposition to several European markets this year, including launching NFC capabilities in Germany.

我們計劃今年將我們的 PayPal Everywhere 價值主張擴展到幾個歐洲市場，包括在德國推出 NFC 功能。

Moving to our progress to grow Venmo.

繼續推進 Venmo 的發展。

Our task is twofold, first, continue to improve the social P2P payment experience that made Venmo, increasing engagement and bringing on more users; second, drive adoption of our monetized products, including the Venmo debit card and Pay with Venmo.

我們的任務有兩個，首先，繼續改善 Venmo 的社交 P2P 支付體驗，增加參與度並吸引更多用戶；第二，推動我們貨幣化產品的採用，包括 Venmo 金融卡和 Pay with Venmo。

In the fourth quarter, we continued improving the Venmo experience by giving our users more of the capabilities they've been asking for like scheduled send and improved search.

在第四季度，我們繼續改善 Venmo 體驗，為用戶提供更多他們所要求的功能，例如預定發送和改進的搜尋。

With these steady improvements to the experience, we see engagement increasing.

隨著這些體驗的穩定改善，我們看到參與度不斷提高。

Our engaged Venmo user base grew 4% in the quarter, reaching more than 64 million monthly active accounts.

我們的 Venmo 用戶群在本季成長了 4%，每月活躍帳戶超過 6,400 萬。

On monetization, we increased the average revenue per active Venmo account in 2024 and we plan to build on that growth in '25.

在貨幣化方面，我們在 2024 年提高了每個活躍 Venmo 帳戶的平均收入，並計劃在 2025 年繼續保持這一成長。

Monetized Venmo monthly active accounts beyond P2P and instant transfers grew more than 20% in the fourth quarter driven by the adoption of Venmo debit card and Pay with Venmo.

由於 Venmo 金融卡和 Pay with Venmo 的普及，第四季度除 P2P 和即時轉帳之外的貨幣化 Venmo 月活躍帳戶增長了 20% 以上。

Venmo debit card monthly actives grew more than 30% and Pay with Venmo monthly actives grew more than 20%.

Venmo 金融卡月活躍用戶成長超過 30%，使用 Venmo 支付的月活躍用戶成長超過 20%。

We continue to expand Venmo's acceptance with major brands like Instacart and MoonPay, adding Venmo in the fourth quarter.

我們繼續擴大 Venmo 與 Instacart 和 MoonPay 等主要品牌的認可，並在第四季度增加了 Venmo。

And as we recently announced, JetBlue became the first airline to accept the Venmo for flight bookings.

正如我們最近宣布的那樣，捷藍航空成為第一家接受 Venmo 預訂航班的航空公司。

So while we are still early in monetizing Venmo, we have a proven playbook that is resonating with customers.

因此，雖然我們在 Venmo 獲利方面仍處於早期階段，但我們已經有一套行之有效的策略，並且得到了客戶的認可。

This gives us confidence as we move to 2025 and beyond.

這讓我們對 2025 年及以後充滿信心。

Finally, I'd like to cover our efforts to accelerate growth for SMBs.

最後，我想介紹一下我們為加速中小企業發展所做的努力。

We are moving from a disparate set of payment products to building an end-to-end suite of solutions that solve more small business needs.

我們正在從一套分散的支付產品轉向建立一套端到端的解決方案，以滿足更多小型企業的需求。

PayPal Complete Payments was the first step towards an integrated suite of solutions, and we continue to make progress driving adoption with 45% of SMB processing and checkout volume now on this platform.

PayPal Complete Payments 是邁向整合解決方案套件的第一步，我們將繼續推進該平台的採用，目前 45% 的中小企業處理和結帳量都基於該平台。

Merchants on PPCP benefit from our upgraded branded checkout experiences.

PPCP 上的商家受惠於我們升級的品牌結帳體驗。

Key to our success in growing with small businesses on our platform is our expanding set of connected and value-added services, which move us beyond a payment provider to a growth partner and help us retain customers throughout their business life cycles.

我們平台上與小型企業共同成長的成功關鍵在於我們不斷擴展的互聯和增值服務，這些服務使我們從支付提供者轉變為成長合作夥伴，並幫助我們在客戶的整個業務生命週期內留住客戶。

Take for example our merchant financing solutions.

以我們的商家融資解決方案為例。

Entrepreneurs come to us for payment services as they start their business.

創業家在創業時會來找我們尋求支付服務。

As their business grows, they need access to capital to buy inventory, invest in marketing and higher.

隨著業務的成長，他們需要獲得資金來購買庫存、投資行銷等。

PayPal Working Capital is a financing solution purpose-built for early-stage companies.

PayPal Working Capital 是專為早期公司打造的融資解決方案。

As the business matures, PayPal business loan offers more traditional merchant financing to match the increasing complexity and multichannel nature of larger businesses.

隨著業務的成熟，PayPal商業貸款提供更傳統的商家融資，以適應大型企業日益增加的複雜性和多通路性質。

Our business financing solutions increase loyalty and engagement, driving the PayPal flywheel.

我們的商業融資解決方案提高了忠誠度和參與度，推動了 PayPal 飛輪的發展。

Merchants typically increase their PayPal volume by 36% after adopting PayPal Working Capital and 16% after taking a PayPal business loan.

商家在採用 PayPal 營運資本後，其 PayPal 交易量通常會增加 36%，而在獲得 PayPal 商業貸款後，其 PayPal 交易量通常會增加 16%。

Our merchant lending originations were $3 billion in '24 demonstrating our leadership and that there's plenty of room to grow to support our customers.

24年，我們的商家貸款發放達到 30 億美元，證明了我們的領導地位，並且有足夠的成長空間來支持我們的客戶。

This is just one example of the services we offer that help SMBs change the trajectory of their businesses.

這只是我們提供的幫助中小企業改變業務發展軌蹟的服務之一。

Expanding this ecosystem of value-added services is a focus in 2025 and beyond.

擴大這項加值服務生態系統是 2025 年及以後的重點。

To close out, I want to thank the PayPal team for their focus on delivering for customers every day.

最後，我要感謝 PayPal 團隊每天致力於為客戶提供服務。

I am proud of how far we have come in the last year.

我為我們在過去的一年裡所取得的進步感到自豪。

It was an important transition year for PayPal.

對 PayPal 來說，這是重要的轉型之年。

We created strong momentum that sets up well for 2025 and beyond.

我們創造了強勁勢頭，為 2025 年及以後奠定了良好基礎。

We are now executing a game plan that we have confidence in, and I'm excited to share more at our Investor Day later this month.

我們現在正在執行一個我們有信心的遊戲計劃，我很高興在本月晚些時候的投資者日上分享更多內容。

With that, over to Jamie.

現在交給 Jamie 了。

Thanks, Alex.

謝謝，亞歷克斯。

Moving to slide 7.

移至幻燈片 7。

PayPal delivered another solid quarter of results to end the year.

今年年底，PayPal 又取得了穩健的季度業績。

While there is still more work to be done, the team is making progress, building on the firm foundation that we have established.

儘管還有更多工作要做，但團隊正在不斷取得進展，並在我們已經建立的堅實基礎上繼續前進。

As we enter the second year of the company's transformation, our teams are energized and moving quickly.

進入公司轉型的第二年，我們的團隊充滿活力、行動迅速。

We remain focused on better serving our customers as we seek to drive durable, profitable growth.

我們將繼續致力於更好地服務客戶，同時尋求實現持久的獲利成長。

Looking at the high-level financial results in the fourth quarter, revenue grew 4% on both a spot and currency-neutral basis.

從第四季的財務表現來看，以現貨和貨幣中性計算，營收均成長了 4%。

For the full year, revenue grew 7% on both a spot and currency-neutral basis.

就全年而言，以現貨和貨幣中性計算，收入均成長了 7%。

Transaction margin dollars grew 7% in the fourth quarter or 6% excluding the benefit of interest on customer balances.

第四季交易保證金增加了 7%，若不計入客戶餘額利息收益則增加了 6%。

Outperformance compared to our guidance was driven by higher contribution from branded checkout and Venmo, credit performance and interest earned on customer balances.

與我們的預期相比，出色的表現得益於品牌結帳和 Venmo 的更高貢獻、信用表現以及客戶餘額所賺取的利息。

For the full year, transaction margin dollars grew 7% or 5% excluding the benefit of interest and customer balances.

就全年而言，交易保證金增加了 7%，若不包括利息和客戶餘額收益則增加了 5%。

Non-GAAP earnings per share were $1.19 in the quarter, up 5%.

本季非公認會計準則每股收益為 1.19 美元，成長 5%。

We ended the full year with $4.65 of non-GAAP earnings per share, up 21%.

我們全年的非公認會計準則每股收益為 4.65 美元，成長 21%。

These full year results benefited from a return to transaction margin dollar growth, fueled by our transformation efforts, expense discipline, the higher interest rate environment, and a strong capital return program.

全年業績受惠於交易利潤率美元成長的恢復，這得益於我們的轉型努力、費用控制、較高的利率環境和強勁的資本回報計劃。

Turning to slide 8.

翻到幻燈片 8。

Our operating metrics reflect another quarter of steady progress.

我們的營運指標反映出又一個季度的穩定進展。

Total active accounts increased by nearly 3 million from the third quarter and nearly 9 million from last year to 434 million.

總活躍帳戶數較第三季增加近300萬，較去年同期增加近900萬，達到4.34億。

Monthly active accounts also continued to show steady progress, up 2% year over year to 229 million with contributions from PayPal consumer accounts and Venmo.

每月活躍帳戶數也持續穩定成長，年增 2% 至 2.29 億，其中 PayPal 消費者帳戶和 Venmo 有所貢獻。

Transactions per active account excluding PSP processing grew 4%.

不包括 PSP 處理的每個活躍帳戶的交易量增加了 4%。

Moving to slide 9.

移至幻燈片 9。

Total payment volume grew 7% on a spot and currency-neutral basis to $438 billion.

以現貨和貨幣中性計算，總支付額成長 7%，達到 4,380 億美元。

For the full year, TPV grew to nearly $1.7 trillion, up 10% on a spot and currency-neutral basis.

就全年而言，TPV 成長至近 1.7 兆美元，按現貨和貨幣中性計算成長 10%。

Looking at the TPV breakdown by product, we see strengths starting to build in some key areas.

從 TPV 的產品細分情況來看，我們發現一些關鍵領域的優勢開始顯現。

PayPal P2P accelerated for the sixth consecutive quarter to 6% growth.

PayPal P2P 連續六季加速成長至 6%。

Venmo also accelerated by 2 points to 10% growth.

Venmo 也加速成長 2 個百分點，成長 10%。

Steady incremental product improvements combined with reinvigorated marketing campaigns are starting to make an impact.

穩步漸進的產品改進與重振的營銷活動相結合開始產生影響。

Global branded checkout volumes increased 6% on a currency-neutral basis in the fourth quarter.

第四季度，全球品牌結帳量按匯率中性計算增長了 6%。

This was about a 50 basis point acceleration from the prior quarter.

這比上一季加速了約 50 個基點。

Underlying this growth, we were encouraged to see US branded checkout volume improve in the fourth quarter.

在這種成長的背景下，我們很高興看到第四季度美國品牌結帳量有所改善。

Part of this increase can be attributed to a healthy spending environment and specific vertical exposure.

這種增長的部分原因可以歸因於健康的消費環境和特定的垂直風險。

In the US, we are focused on scaling our modern, best-in-class experiences.

在美國，我們專注於擴大我們現代化、一流的體驗。

From a merchant perspective, we continue to see the greatest strength across large enterprises, platforms, and marketplaces.

從商家的角度來看，我們持續看到大型企業、平台和市場表現出最大的優勢。

Winning checkout remains our most critical priority.

贏得結帳仍然是我們最關鍵的優先事項。

Our goal is to drive more consumer engagement and a higher PayPal selection rate, which should accelerate TPV over time.

我們的目標是提高消費者的參與度和 PayPal 選擇率，這將隨著時間的推移加速 TPV 的發展。

Turning to PSP.

轉向 PSP。

As discussed throughout the past year, we moved rapidly within our Braintree business to prioritize healthy, profitable growth, and intentionally let go of unprofitable volume.

正如過去一年所討論的那樣，我們在 Braintree 業務範圍內迅速採取行動，優先考慮健康、盈利的增長，並有意放棄無利可圖的業務。

In line with this strategy, PSP processing volume grew 2% in the fourth quarter compared to 11% in the third quarter.

依照這項策略，第四季的 PSP 處理量成長了 2%，而第三季則成長了 11%。

Our conversations with merchants have become more holistic, moving beyond price and share of card processing to a deeper appreciation of our customers' needs and how we can add value through our full suite of solutions.

我們與商家的對話變得更加全面，不再僅僅討論價格和卡片處理份額，而是更深入地了解客戶的需求以及如何透過我們的全套解決方案增加價值。

We expect a handful of large Braintree merchant renegotiations to result in a headwind to revenue growth of about 5 points in 2025.

我們預計，少數大型 Braintree 商家重新談判將導致 2025 年營收成長遭遇約 5 個百分點的阻力。

Shifting away from this volume pressures gross revenue, but is accretive to transaction margin dollars and will result in more than 1 point benefit this year.

減少這項銷售會對總收入造成壓力，但會增加交易利潤，並將在今年帶來超過 1 個百分點的收益。

We expect this benefit to build over time as we drive more value-added services.

我們預計，隨著我們推出更多增值服務，這種優勢將隨著時間的推移而逐漸增強。

Over the next few quarters, we will continue to work through renegotiations, at which point we should reach a new baseline to drive faster volume and revenue growth.

在接下來的幾個季度中，我們將繼續進行重新談判，屆時我們將達到新的基準，以推動更快的銷售和營收成長。

Moving to more financial detail on slide 10.

請參閱投影片 10 上的更多財務細節。

Transaction revenue grew 4% on a spot basis to $7.6 billion, driven primarily by branded Checkout and Venmo.

交易收入現貨成長 4% 至 76 億美元，主要由品牌 Checkout 和 Venmo 推動。

Other value-added services revenue in the quarter grew 5% to $778 million.

本季其他增值服務收入成長5%至7.78億美元。

This acceleration was driven largely by a return to growth in credit revenue.

這種加速主要是由於信貸收入恢復成長所致。

We continue to see solid performance across our credit portfolio.

我們的信貸組合持續表現穩健。

As Alex shared, we have begun to modestly grow merchant originations and expect credit to be a positive revenue and profit driver in 2025.

正如 Alex 所說，我們已經開始適度增加商家發起量，並預期信貸將在 2025 年成為積極的收入和利潤驅動力。

Transaction take rate declined by 4 basis points to 1.73% driven largely by mix.

交易接受率下降 4 個基點至 1.73%，主要受組合影響。

Venmo monetization was a slight benefit, offset by merchant mix within branded checkout and Braintree, faster growth in payouts and foreign exchange.

Venmo 的貨幣化略有優勢，但被品牌結帳和 Braintree 內的商家組合、支出和外匯的更快成長所抵消。

Turning to transaction margin dollars.

轉向交易保證金美元。

The largest contributors were branded Checkout, Venmo, interest on customer balances, a return to growth in credit, and Braintree.

最大的貢獻者是品牌 Checkout、Venmo、客戶餘額利息、信貸恢復成長以及 Braintree。

Transaction margin percent increased by more than 100 basis points for the second consecutive quarter, reflecting our focus on price to value and profitable growth.

交易利潤率連續第二個季度增加超過 100 個基點，反映了我們對價格價值和獲利成長的關注。

As planned, we increased our level of strategic investment in the quarter, growing non-transaction operating expense by 10%.

按照計劃，我們在本季度增加了戰略投資水平，非交易營運費用增加了 10%。

This growth included marketing spend deferred from the first half of the year and efforts to support the rollout of new products and initiatives.

這一增長包括上半年推遲的營銷支出和支持推出新產品和新計劃的努力。

Non-GAAP operating income grew 2% in the quarter to $1.5 billion. Non-GAAP

本季非公認會計準則營業收入成長 2%，達到 15 億美元。非公認會計準則

operating margin declined 34 basis points to 18%.

營業利益率下降34個基點至18%。

PayPal generated $2.2 billion of free cash flow in the quarter, bringing full year free cash flow to $6.8 billion.

PayPal 本季產生了 22 億美元的自由現金流，使全年自由現金流達到 68 億美元。

This is meaningfully ahead of the $5 billion we planned for at the start of the year and includes some benefit from lower cash taxes, which we expect to be a headwind in 2025.

這比我們年初計劃的 50 億美元要高出很多，其中包括降低現金稅帶來的一些好處，我們預計這將成為 2025 年的阻力。

In the quarter, we completed $1.2 billion in share repurchases, bringing full year share repurchases to $6 billion.

本季度，我們完成了 12 億美元的股票回購，全年股票回購總額達 60 億美元。

Finally, we ended the quarter with $15.4 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments, and $11.1 billion in debt.

最後，本季結束時，我們的現金、現金等價物和投資為 154 億美元，債務為 111 億美元。

Moving to guidance on slide 11 for the first quarter and full year 2025.

轉到第 11 張投影片中有關 2025 年第一季和全年的指引。

For the first quarter, we expect flat to low single-digit revenue growth on a currency-neutral basis, which is heavily impacted by the Braintree renegotiation efforts I discussed earlier.

對於第一季度，我們預計以貨幣中性計算，收入成長將持平至低個位數，這受到我之前討論過的 Braintree 重新談判努力的嚴重影響。

This also includes about a 1 point headwind from lapping last year's leap day.

這也包括因去年閏日而產生的約 1 點逆風。

We expect transaction margin dollars to be between $3.6 billion and $3.65 billion, which represents 5% growth at the midpoint.

我們預計交易保證金將在 36 億美元至 36.5 億美元之間，中間值代表 5% 的成長。

We are planning for low single-digit non-transaction OpEx growth in the quarter, and we expect to deliver non-GAAP EPS in the range of $1.15 to $1.17 or approximately 7% growth at the midpoint.

我們計劃本季實現非交易營運支出的低個位數成長，並預計非 GAAP 每股收益將在 1.15 美元至 1.17 美元之間，或中間值成長約 7%。

Moving to the full year.

轉向全年。

We plan to continue guiding revenue one quarter at a time.

我們計劃繼續逐季度指導收入。

We believe this approach has served the company well during our transformation, enabling healthy long-term decision-making that prioritizes driving faster transaction margin dollar growth.

我們相信，這種方法在公司轉型期間發揮了良好的作用，使公司能夠做出健康的長期決策，優先推動更快的交易利潤美元成長。

Over time, we are focused on accelerating both revenue and profitability.

隨著時間的推移，我們專注於提高收入和獲利能力。

For the full year, we expect transaction margin dollars of approximately $15.2 billion to $15.4 billion, representing approximately 4.5% growth at the midpoint.

我們預計全年交易保證金約為 152 億美元至 154 億美元，中間值成長約 4.5%。

In 2024, we had a 2-point benefit from interest on customer balances.

2024 年，我們從客戶餘額利息中獲得了 2 個百分點的收益。

For 2025, our guidance includes about a $150 million or about a 1 point headwind due to interest rate cuts.

對於 2025 年，我們的預期包括因降息而產生的約 1.5 億美元或約 1 個百分點的逆風。

Excluding interest on customer balances, we expect transaction margin dollars to grow by at least 5% compared to 4.6% growth in 2024.

不包括客戶餘額的利息，我們預計交易保證金將成長至少 5%，而 2024 年的成長率為 4.6%。

In the first quarter, we expect minimal benefit from growth of interest on customer balances and then a headwind for the remainder of the year.

在第一季度，我們預期客戶餘額利息成長將帶來很小的收益，而在今年剩餘時間內則會遭遇阻力。

One other factor to keep in mind is that in 2024, we saw a 1 point benefit from transaction loss improvements.

需要牢記的另一個因素是，到 2024 年，我們將看到交易損失改善帶來 1 個百分點的收益。

We are planning for some normalization in transaction loss during 2025 as we roll out new products.

我們計劃在 2025 年推出新產品時使交易損失正常化。

Our focus in 2025 is to strike the right balance between investment and productivity, seeking to fund long-term investments largely through savings generated from better tech and automation deployment.

我們在 2025 年的重點是在投資和生產力之間取得適當的平衡，尋求主要透過更好的技術和自動化部署所產生的節省來為長期投資提供資金。

We expect full year non-transaction operating expenses to increase in the low single-digit range.

我們預計全年非交易營業費用將以個位數低幅度成長。

There will likely be some unevenness quarter to quarter due to the timing of initiatives, marketing spend, and comparisons to the prior year.

由於計劃的時間表、行銷支出以及與上一年同期相比的不同，各個季度之間可能會出現一些不平衡。

As a result, we expect second quarter OpEx growth to be higher than in other periods.

因此，我們預計第二季的營運支出成長將高於其他時期。

We expect to deliver full year non-GAAP EPS in the range of $4.95 to $5.10, representing about 8% growth at the midpoint.

我們預計全年非 GAAP 每股盈餘將在 4.95 美元至 5.10 美元之間，中間值成長約 8%。

This includes negative impact from lower interest rates and just over a 2-point increase in our expected non-GAAP effective tax rate.

這包括較低利率的負面影響以及我們預期的非 GAAP 有效稅率增加 2 個百分點以上。

Our guidance also includes approximately $6 billion in share buyback, and we expect full year free cash flow of approximately $6 billion to $7 billion.

我們的預期還包括約 60 億美元的股票回購，我們預計全年自由現金流約為 60 億至 70 億美元。

I'd like to wrap up by thanking the PayPal team for their continued focus and dedication.

最後，我要感謝 PayPal 團隊的持續關注與奉獻。

The progress we made in 2024 gives us a strong foundation to build on as we move into the second year of PayPal's transformation.

我們在 2024 年的進步為我們進入 PayPal 轉型的第二年奠定了堅實的基礎。

One of our primary focuses this year will be driving adoption of recent innovation and scaling better customer experiences.

我們今年的主要關注點之一是推動最新創新的採用並擴大更好的客戶體驗。

It will take time for some of our efforts to build and drive financial impact, but we are confident in our road map and in our execution plans, and we're excited to share more with you at our Investor Day on February 25.

我們的一些努力需要時間來建立和推動財務影響，但我們對我們的路線圖和執行計劃充滿信心，我們很高興在 2 月 25 日的投資者日與您分享更多資訊。

With that, back to you, Alex.

現在回到你身上，亞歷克斯。

Thanks, Jamie.

謝謝，傑米。

To summarize, in 2024, we executed the transition plan we laid out.

總而言之，2024 年，我們執行了所製定的過渡計畫。

We have positioned PayPal to compete and win and delivered strong results along the way.

我們讓 PayPal 處於競爭和勝利的境地，並且在這一過程中取得了強勁的業績。

I'm very proud of our team and the impact they made during a year of intense change.

我為我們的團隊以及他們在一年的劇烈變革中產生的影響感到非常自豪。

The momentum we have created sets us up well for 2025, which is about scaling adoption.

我們所創造的動能為我們在 2025 年擴大採用範圍奠定了良好的基礎。

It is still early in our transformation, but our objective is clear.

我們的轉型還處於早期階段，但我們的目標是明確的。

We are evolving PayPal from a payments company to a commerce platform that helps merchants win every sale and helps consumers shop smarter.

我們正在將 PayPal 從一家支付公司發展成為一個商業平台，幫助商家贏得每筆銷售，並幫助消費者更明智地購物。

Steve, let's go to Q&A.

史蒂夫，我們進入問答環節。

(Event Instructions) Sarah, please open the line.

(活動指示)莎拉，請打開電話線。

(Operator Instructions) Andrew Schmidt, Citi.

（操作員指示）花旗銀行，安德魯‧施密特 (Andrew Schmidt)。

Hi, Alex and Jamie, good to see the next stage of the transformation here.

嗨，亞歷克斯和傑米，很高興看到這裡轉變的下一階段。

I wondered, just digging on branded volume growth.

我很好奇，只是深入研究品牌銷售的成長。

Maybe you can just unpack the fourth quarter performance particularly in the US How did it sort of trend relative to your expectation in terms of share of checkout?

也許您可以分析一下第四季度的表現，特別是美國的表現。

And then as we think about 2025, what are the right expectations to set for branded volume growth?

那麼當我們展望2025年時，對品牌銷售成長應設定什麼樣的正確預期呢？

And I know you mentioned a few things that are drivers there, your checkout integrations, reinvigorating the consumer side.

我知道您提到了一些推動因素，例如結帳整合、重振消費者方面。

Maybe just remind us what are the biggest unlocks in the time frame to see those come into play?

也許只是提醒我們在這個時間範圍內最大的解鎖是什麼，以看到它們發揮作用？

Yeah.

是的。

Thank you, Andrew.

謝謝你，安德魯。

Let me kick off and then hand it over to Jamie.

讓我先開始，然後將其交給傑米。

So first, let me just remind us of the context of what we walked into at '24 on branded checkout.

首先，讓我先回顧一下我們在品牌結帳時遇到的 24 個情況。

I talked about it throughout the course of the year as our number one priority, and most of it was focused on how do we improve the customer experience?

我全年都在談論這是我們的首要任務，其中大部分內容都集中在如何改善客戶體驗？

We felt good about the desktop experience, but clearly, gaps in mobile.

我們對桌面體驗感覺良好，但行動端顯然存在差距。

And that was innovation that the team really executed on throughout '24, tested a number of different pay sheets, a number of different vaulted experiences, and then by the time we got to '24, felt really good about the innovation we were rolling out.

這就是團隊在 24 年裡真正執行的創新，測試了許多不同的薪資表、許多不同的保險庫體驗，然後到了 24 年，我們對我們推出的創新感到非常滿意。

And as we start to roll out, just as a reminder, our one-time checkout improvements is 400 basis points on conversion.

當我們開始推出時，提醒一下，我們的一次性結帳改進是轉換率 400 個基點。

Our vaulted improvement is 100 basis points on conversion.

我們的跳躍式改進是轉換後的 100 個基點。

And so -- and the biggest impact is really on our mobile and our small business base, so really excited about the innovation that's now rolling out.

所以 — — 最大的影響其實是針對我們的行動和小型企業基礎，所以我們對現在推出的創新感到非常興奮。

As we talked about in Q3, we had just started to roll out.

正如我們在第三季所討論的那樣，我們剛剛開始推出。

We'd ramp that to about 5% throughout Q4.

我們會在第四季將這一比例提高到 5% 左右。

We continue to execute on our rollout and got that up to 25% by the end of the year.

我們繼續執行我們的計劃，到年底將達到 25％。

So as we exit '24, I'm feeling really good about the quality of the innovation, our ability to roll it out and impact customers.

因此，當我們退出24年時，我對創新的品質、我們推出創新的能力以及影響客戶的能力感到非常滿意。

And as we look to '25, we now have, I believe, the best-in-class experience on desktop, on mobile, and starting to see knock-on effects of things like our Buy Now, Pay Later attach, which is up 20% with this new pay sheet.

展望 2025 年，我相信，我們在桌面和行動裝置上擁有一流的體驗，並且開始看到「先買後付」等功能的連鎖反應。

So from an innovation perspective and a customer impact perspective, feeling really good as we go into '25.

因此，從創新角度和客戶影響角度來看，我們進入25年時感覺非常好。

Yeah.

是的。

And Andrew, just to add on there with respect to the US, we did see sequential improvement in branded checkout in the US in the fourth quarter.

安德魯，補充一下，就美國而言，我們確實看到第四季度美國品牌結帳情況連續改善。

And that was about 3 points of growth quarter over quarter, really due to market dynamics, but also specific key vertical exposure around travel, crypto, gaming, et cetera.

與上一季相比，這一成長約 3 個百分點，這實際上是由於市場動態，但也受到旅遊、加密、遊戲等領域特定關鍵垂直風險的影響。

Alex mentioned we're still early in the ramp of our modern checkout experience, and that is certainly something that as, we get into '25, we are very, very focused on.

亞歷克斯提到，我們的現代結帳體驗仍處於早期階段，而這無疑是我們進入25年後非常非常關注的事情。

Our biggest priorities are really around innovation, driving those improvements in checkout experience.

我們的首要任務其實是圍繞著創新，推動結帳體驗的改善。

And you mentioned also giving consumers more reasons to choose, so some of the things we've done throughout the year around really improving the app experience, adding rewards, adding different elements to how people can find contacts and things like that, all of that is around engaging the consumer in a different way.

你也提到了給消費者更多選擇的理由，所以我們全年所做的一些事情確實改善了應用體驗，增加了獎勵，為人們如何找到聯繫人添加了不同的元素，諸如此類。方式吸引消費者。

And as we talk about internally, really getting the flywheel continuing to move between our consumers and our merchant experience.

正如我們內部所討論的那樣，飛輪確實在我們的消費者和商家體驗之間繼續運作。

So from a 2025 guide perspective, we still expect branded checkout TPV to grow about mid-single digits and to have consistent growth from last year into this year with some acceleration with our initiatives on top of that.

因此，從 2025 年的指南角度來看，我們仍然預計品牌結帳 TPV 將成長約中等個位數，並從去年到今年保持持續成長，並且在此基礎上透過我們的舉措實現一定程度的加速。

Ramsey El-Assal, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的拉姆齊‧埃爾-阿薩勒 (Ramsey El-Assal)。

As expected, unbranded volumes decelerated again as you pursue the price-to-value strategy.

正如預期的那樣，當您追求價格價值策略時，無品牌銷售量再次減速。

Can you give us your updated thoughts on your sort of confidence level, timing and toolkit to reaccelerate unbranded volume growth at the higher baseline profitability levels as we move forward here?

隨著我們繼續前進，您能否向我們提供關於您的信心水平、時機和工具包的最新想法，以便在更高的基線盈利水平上重新加速非品牌銷量增長？

Yeah.

是的。

Let me just touch on -- thanks for the question, Ramsey.

讓我簡單談談——感謝拉姆齊的提問。

And let me touch on just how we're -- how these conversations are evolving.

讓我來談談這些對話是如何發展的。

So first, again, this has been our strategy throughout the year.

首先，這是我們全年的策略。

I'm encouraged to see just another quarter of branded, unbranded Braintree contribution to TM dollar growth.

我很高興看到 Braintree 品牌和非品牌業務對 TM 美元成長的貢獻又增加了一個季度。

The conversations are continuing to be strategic in nature, which is exciting for us.

對話繼續具有戰略性，這讓我們感到興奮。

We're having not just processing conversations, but now they're sort of evolving into two steps.

我們不只是處理對話，現在它正在演變成兩個步驟。

One is the value-added services that we're bringing to market.

一是我們向市場推出的加值服務。

I mentioned some of these FX-as-a-Service, Risk-as-a-Service, chargeback automation, orchestration, all of these are things that we're now able to price-to-value and monetize as part of a best-in-class unbranded offering.

我提到了一些外匯即服務、風險即服務、退款自動化、編排，所有這些都是我們現在能夠定價並貨幣化的東西，作為最佳的一部分- 同類無品牌產品。

In addition, though, we're really starting to differentiate ourselves in these conversations by being able to bring customers to the conversation.

此外，透過讓客戶參與對話中，我們真正開始在這些對話中脫穎而出。

And so again, as I sit down with CEOs of some of our largest customers and really talk about what are their greatest needs?

因此，當我與我們一些最大客戶的執行長坐下來認真談論他們最大的需求是什麼時？

It goes well beyond just processing.

它遠遠超出了單純的處理範圍。

It really goes to how do we bring more customers to bear?

這其實關乎我們如何吸引更多客戶？

And this is really the first time that we're leveraging the two-sided network that PayPal has and being able to say, hey, we have hundreds of millions of consumers around the world.

這實際上是我們第一次利用 PayPal 的雙邊網絡，並且能夠說，嘿，我們在全球擁有數億消費者。

We now have an ad platform.

我們現在有一個廣告平台。

We have reward platforms.

我們有獎勵平台。

We have the ability to enable our unbranded processing customers to create rewards and offers inside of our PayPal app to be able to drive additional growth for them.

我們有能力讓我們的非品牌處理客戶在我們的 PayPal 應用程式內創建獎勵和優惠，為他們帶來額外的成長。

And so these become really fun conversations, to be honest, because we're now having holistic, not just processing but end-to-end, how do we leverage their marketing dollars, how do we leverage their ability to acquire customers in our two-sided network?

所以這些變成了非常有趣的對話，說實話，因為我們現在擁有整體的，不僅僅是處理，而是端到端的，我們如何利用他們的營銷資金，我們如何利用他們的能力來獲取我們兩個公司的客戶雙側網路？

Yeah.

是的。

And with respect to forward trends on this, we do expect similar dynamics in the next few quarters, some volatility.

就未來趨勢而言，我們預計未來幾季也會出現類似的動態和一些波動。

I mean, this is not something that just happens in a perfect line.

我的意思是，這並不是完美地發生的事情。

And we still do have some large agreements over the next couple of years that we will work our way through.

未來幾年我們仍將努力達成一些重大協議。

But the revenue growth should build as we lap some of the larger agreements sluffing off over time.

但隨著我們逐漸完成一些較大協議，收入應該會成長。

For 2025, we expect the renegotiations to be about a 5-point revenue growth headwind.

對於 2025 年，我們預計重新談判將對收入成長造成 5 個百分點的逆風。

But the other important point here is that it's a 1 point accretive on the TM dollars growth in 2025.

但這裡的另一個重要點是，到 2025 年，它將為 TM 美元增長增加 1 個百分點。

So I think an important dynamic there that, as you mentioned, we're very intentionally driving.

因此我認為，正如您所說，我們正非常刻意地推動這項重要動態。

Jason Kupferberg, Bank of America.

美國銀行的傑森‧庫普弗伯格（Jason Kupferberg）。

I just wanted to come back to the branded TPV topic.

我只是想回到品牌 TPV 的話題。

I think you mentioned US accelerated 3 points in the quarter if I caught that right.

如果我沒理解錯的話，你有提到美國在本季加速了 3 個百分點。

I guess that would imply international slowed.

我猜這意味著國際貿易放緩了。

So perhaps you can quantify that and then maybe give us a sense of how that mid-single-digit global branded volume outlook for '25 splits between US and non-US.

因此，也許您可以量化這一點，然後讓我們了解 2025 年中個位數全球品牌銷售前景在美國和美國以外地區的分佈情況。

And just a little bit of color on how the transaction margin profile differs between US and international branded.

稍微介紹一下美國和國際品牌的交易利潤率有何不同。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝大家。

Good morning, Jason.

早上好，傑森。

With respect to international, we are still in a very strong market position there and we continue to take share internationally.

就國際市場而言，我們仍然佔據非常強勢的市場地位，並且繼續在國際上佔據份額。

We had less than a full point international pullback.

我們的國際撤退不到一個整點。

Just some softness in Europe is what I would say.

我想說的是，歐洲只是有點疲軟。

And when you look at the split, international to US, both in the TPV line and in the TM line, it's really 50-50.

當您查看 TPV 生產線和 TM 生產線的國際和美國份額時，您會發現兩者的比例實際上都是 50-50。

And from a margin perspective, it's slightly healthier outside the US, but it's very much in line.

從利潤率的角度來看，美國以外的地區的情況稍微好一些，但也非常符合預期。

Tien-Tsin Huang, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Tien-Tsin Huang。

Just on grow Venmo.

剛剛在 Venmo 上成長。

Can you just -- I know you'll talk a lot about it on February 25, but is it more about user growth, new products or ARPU from existing products expanding?

您能否—我知道您會在 2 月 25 日談論很多這方面的問題，但這更多的是關於用戶成長、新產品還是現有產品的 ARPU 擴大？

Just curious what the algorithm is there.

只是好奇那裡的演算法是什麼。

If you don't mind, a quick clarification, the step-up in CapEx in 2025, is that more of a one-time issue?

如果您不介意的話，我可以快速澄清一下，2025 年資本支出的增加是否是一個一次性問題？

Is it a sustainable level for you to consider?

這是一個您可以考慮的可持續的水平嗎？

Hey, Tien-Tsin.

嘿，Tien-Tsin。

Let me hit Venmo and then hand it over to Jamie.

讓我去打 Venmo 然後把它交給 Jamie。

So on Venmo, and again, we will -- it will be exciting to see you all at Investor Day and we'll certainly dive deep on Venmo.

因此，關於 Venmo，我們會再次——很高興在投資者日見到大家，我們一定會深入探討 Venmo。

But really, it is both customer growth as well as monetization growth.

但實際上，這既是顧客成長，也是貨幣化成長。

Again, we are excited.

我們再次感到興奮。

Venmo is the number one P2P platform in the US

Venmo 是美國排名第一的 P2P 平台

We saw MAAs continue to grow to 63 million by the end of this year.

我們看到，到今年年底，MAA 數量繼續增長至 6,300 萬。

We're seeing TPV continue to grow, up 10%, hitting double digits really for the first time in, I think, seven, eight quarters, up to [76 billion], so really exciting to see the continuation of growth and active users.

我們看到 TPV 繼續成長，成長了 10%，這是七、八個季度以來首次達到兩位數，達到 [760 億]，所以看到持續的成長和活躍用戶真的很高興。

In terms of our focus on monetization, again, we've been consistent.

就我們對貨幣化的關注而言，我們始終保持一致。

This is about proven levers of debit card MAA growth, which was up 32%; and Pay with Venmo MAA growth, which was up 22%.

這是關於借記卡 MAA 增長的經過驗證的槓桿，增長了 32%；使用 Venmo 支付的 MAA 成長率為 22%。

The reason this is important is we've seen that debit card MAA delivers average revenue per account 4x when they adopt our debit card, and Pay with Venmo average revenue per account is up 3x.

這很重要，因為我們已經看到，當借記卡 MAA 採用我們的借記卡時，每個帳戶的平均收入增加了 4 倍，而使用 Venmo 支付時每個帳戶的平均收入增加了 3 倍。

And just as a reminder, we are in single-digit penetration across both of those products across the base.

需要提醒的是，我們在這兩款產品上的滲透率都達到了個位數。

And so as we continue to grow customers, we're growing active customers and we're starting to grow penetration of monetizable elements.

因此，隨著我們客戶數量的不斷增長，活躍客戶的數量也在不斷增長，可貨幣化元素的滲透率也開始提高。

So this is exciting for us.

這對我們來說是令人興奮的。

We also will just continue to focus on innovation.

我們也將繼續專注於創新。

I think we're just scratching the surface of a very engaged, highly valuable demographic.

我認為，我們僅僅觸及了高度參與、極有價值的人口統計的表面。

We've rolled out new innovations like scheduled send and gifting and groups and direct deposits to bring more money into the ecosystem.

我們推出了新的創新功能，例如定期發送和贈送、團體和直接存款，以便為生態系統帶來更多資金。

But the team has a really, really exciting road map for '25 as we start to really think about what are the other needs -- once this money is in the ecosystem of Venmo?

但是，當我們開始真正思考其他需求時（一旦這些錢進入 Venmo 的生態系統），團隊為 2025 年制定了一個非常非常令人興奮的路線圖。

What are the other needs that our customers have to be able to enable them to be able to spend in an omnichannel way and obviously move money across each other?

我們的客戶還有什麼其他需求，才能使他們能夠以全通路的方式進行消費並實現資金相互轉移？

So exciting about what Venmo will have, and we've built a very good baseline of monetization throughout '24, which sets us up well for '25.

Venmo 的未來令人十分興奮，我們在 24 年建立了非常好的貨幣化基礎，為 25 年做好了準備。

Good.

好的。

And then with respect to CapEx, we're seeing, over the next two years, an increase in the program to about $200 million to $300 million.

至於資本支出，我們預計未來兩年內該計畫將增加至約 2 億至 3 億美元。

And it relates to tech infra build-out and data center build-out in connection with both platform consolidation and a few other things.

它涉及技術基礎設施建設和資料中心建設，以及平台整合和其他一些事項。

But after the two years, it should come down.

但兩年後，這個數字應該會下降。

Darrin Peller, Wolfe Research.

達林·佩勒（Darrin Peller），沃爾夫研究公司。

Jamie, I think you said you'd expect stable branded growth through '25 based on what you're -- what's built into your outlook.

傑米，我想你說過，根據你的預測，你預計到 25 年品牌將實現穩定成長。

You guys have initiatives now where 25% of your checkout experience is on the more modern checkout, which I know has kind of ramped through the end of last year and were there now, and so it should impact, I think.

你們現在有一些舉措，其中25% 的結帳體驗是在更現代化的結帳方式上進行的，我知道這個舉措在去年年底就已經有所推廣，現在也已經達到了這個水平，所以我認為它應該會產生影響。

The debit card is more further out.

借記卡還比較多。

Marketing has been more substantial.

行銷工作更加紮實。

I guess I'm just curious when those initiatives you think would have a more material impact.

我只是好奇，您認為這些舉措何時會產生更實質的影響。

Or are they embedded in your outlook that they could have an impact on branded acceleration as the year progresses?

或者它們是否根植於您的觀點中，即隨著時間的推移，它們可能會對品牌加速產生影響？

Are you just building in uncertainty around things like international, maybe Germany or any other softness?

您是否只是在國際、德國或其他疲軟因素等方面建立了不確定性？

And then just my one quick follow-on would be the exit rate of transaction margin growth ex flows, I think 6%, in the context of this 6% branded.

然後我要快速跟進的是交易保證金增長的退出率，我認為是 6%，在這個 6% 的品牌背景下。

So I'm just curious, when you think of your forecast, is there anything about this fourth quarter growth rate that was unsustainable other than maybe leap year?

所以我很好奇，當您考慮您的預測時，除了閏年之外，第四季的成長率還有什麼不可持續的因素嗎？

Otherwise, you're 5% -- I think you've added 5%-plus, so we may capture that.

否則，您就是 5% — — 我認為您已經增加了 5% 以上，因此我們可以捕捉到這一點。

Yeah.

是的。

So first, let's talk about the branded Checkout growth in 2025.

首先，我們來談談 2025 年品牌結帳的成長。

You were specifically asking about initiatives.

您特別問的是有關舉措的問題。

And as Alex mentioned, we've got 25% of our US TPV flowing through the most modern checkout experiences at this point.

正如 Alex 所提到的，目前，我們 25% 的美國 TPV 都流經最現代化的結帳體驗。

That is something that we expect to scale as we get into '25.

我們預計，進入25年後，這一目標將會擴大。

And in addition, we're going global with that as well.

此外，我們還將走向全球。

So to your point, we do expect some impact from that to start to flow through.

所以正如您所說，我們確實預計這會產生一些影響。

And we have embedded some of that in our guide, and we expect it to build over time.

我們已經將其中的一些內容嵌入了我們的指南中，並且希望它能夠隨著時間的推移而逐漸完善。

Having said that, we also think we've prudently planned here.

話雖如此，我們也認為我們已經在這裡進行了審慎的規劃。

And I wouldn't say we've explicitly put an overlay for European softness in there.

而且我不會說我們明確地將歐洲的柔軟性置於其中。

Having said that, we've left ourselves room for to navigate different things because as we roll this out, the impact of how this will flow through may be uneven as we see it.

話雖如此，我們還是給自己留出了空間去嘗試不同的事物，因為當我們推出這項計劃時，我們看到它的影響可能是不均衡的。

And then do you want to remind me of your second question?

那你想提醒我你的第二個問題嗎？

It was on TM, but I didn't pick up the exact question you were asking.

這是在 TM 上，但我沒明白你問的確切問題。

Growth rate, you're at 6% already without any acceleration in the underlying KPI despite all the initiatives you've done.

成長率已經達到 6%，儘管您採取了所有舉措，但底層 KPI 卻沒有任何加速。

And you're guiding 5% plus -- I guess, 5%-plus, right, from a non-float impacted.

而您指導的是 5% 以上 — — 我猜，5% 以上，對吧，受到非浮動影響。

So just making sure there's nothing unsustainable in Q4's exit rate that should inform you on '25's growth.

因此，只要確保第四季的退出率不存在不可持續的因素，就能讓您了解 25 年的成長情況。

Yeah.

是的。

When you look at '25 from a TM perspective, there's probably two things to think about that are headwinds to 2025 TM.

當你從 TM 的角度看待 25 年時，可能有兩件事需要考慮，它們是 2025 TM 的阻力。

The first is we expect transaction loss to normalize as we get into the year.

首先，我們預期隨著新年的到來，交易損失將會正常化。

We had a

我們有一個

[full point benefit of that in '24 and/or a full basis point benefit].

[‘24 年的全部點數效益和/或全部基點效益]。

And when we get into 25, we expect about 0.5 basis point headwind.

當我們進入 25 時，我們預計逆風約為 0.5 個基點。

And really, we are growing products that should carry with it a higher transaction loss rate.

事實上，我們正​​在開發的交易損失率更高的產品。

And then you mentioned the 6%.

然後你提到了 6%。

I would talk a little bit, even though around interest rates.

我會談一點，儘管涉及利率。

When you look at total all-in TM, we're expecting about $150 million of interest rate headwind on all-in TM there, too.

當您查看總全包 TM 時，我們預計全包 TM 的利率阻力也將達到約 1.5 億美元。

But when you look at the underlying profile of TM, which really revolved around branded checkout, Braintree, Venmo, credit, I mean, all of those things are things that we believe are durable, it's clearly diverse, and things that we fully expect to continue as we get into '25 and beyond.

但當你看看TM 的底層概況時，它實際上圍繞著品牌結帳、Braintree、Venmo、信貸，我的意思是，所有這些都是我們認為持久的東西，它顯然是多樣化的，也是我們完全期望的東西。

And Darrin, I just -- I want to pile on to Jamie's comments as well because I think it's really important to set our branded Checkout strategy in context.

達林，我只是——我也想同意傑米的評論，因為我認為在特定背景下制定我們的品牌結帳策略非常重要。

First, as Jamie said, and I think we've been consistent throughout the year, we're excited about the innovations.

首先，正如傑米所說，我認為我們全年都保持一致，我們對這些創新感到非常興奮。

I think we've been pretty prudent in the way that we have looked at a forward guide.

我認為，我們對前瞻性指引的看法是相當謹慎的。

We want to see the results before we tell you they're coming.

我們想在告訴您結果之前先看到結果。

But if I just step back and think about the strategy, think about what we did in '24, we really worked on innovation and what I would call just fixing the basics of branded checkout.

但是，如果我退一步思考我們的策略，想想我們在24年所做的事情，我們確實致力於創新，而我所說的只是修復品牌結帳的基礎。

As I described earlier, an improved product now in the hands of customers on both desktop and mobile, and we're now starting to see that scale, as you mentioned, up to 25%.

正如我之前所描述的，現在改進的產品已經出現在桌面和行動裝置客戶手中，正如您所說，我們現在開始看到這種規模達到了 25%。

And we'll continue to scale that throughout the quarter and the rest of '25.

我們將在本季以及 25 年剩餘時間內繼續擴大規模。

We've expanded to check out to guest checkout, which we weren't playing in before.

我們已經將結帳服務拓展至訪客結帳，這是我們之前從未涉足過的。

And now we're starting to bring in new users through our Fastlane product, which again needs to continue to scale and will scale over the next few years.

現在，我們開始透過我們的 Fastlane 產品吸引新用戶，該產品也需要繼續擴大規模，並將在未來幾年內擴大規模。

But we now have innovation in market that is best-in-class to go after the guest checkout experience.

但現在我們在市場上擁有一流的創新，可以改善客人的結帳體驗。

We expanded to off-line.

我們擴展到了線下。

So now we're playing in an omnichannel world where it's not just branded, but we're seeing off-line commerce that we didn't see before.

所以現在我們處在一個全通路的世界裡，不只是品牌，我們還看到了以前從未見過的線下商務。

And it's driving habituation.

這正在推動習慣的形成。

Our debit card users are transacting twice as much as just a branded user and driving 20% higher average revenue per active.

我們的金融卡用戶的交易量是品牌用戶的兩倍，每位活躍用戶的平均收入高出 20%。

So we're just starting to put together a holistic strategy here that's beyond just a single button experience, but really starting to engage our growing customer base -- our growing monthly active customer base in a holistic way, where we really can be their commerce partner going forward.

因此，我們剛開始製定一個整體策略，這不僅僅是一個按鈕體驗，而是真正開始以一種整體的方式吸引我們不斷增長的客戶群——我們不斷增長的每月活躍客戶群，我們真正可以成為他們的商業合作夥伴。

Timothy Chiodo, UBS.

瑞銀的提摩西‧奇奧多 (Timothy Chiodo)。

So in the past, and when we talked about the mix within the branded checkout, we typically talked about it being very skewed to discretionary and to goods.

因此，在過去，當我們談論品牌結帳中的組合時，我們通常會談論它嚴重偏向可自由支配的物品和商品。

And in prior periods of strong discretionary growth during 2020, 2021, the branded checkout button grew in line, if not faster, depending on the metric or the industry data that you're looking at.

在 2020 年和 2021 年可自由支配支出強勁成長的時期，品牌結帳按鈕的成長速度也與此一致，甚至更快，這取決於您所查看的指標或產業數據。

The growth was better than the industry.

成長勢頭好於行業。

Could you maybe talk a little bit about how that mix might have evolved, if at all?

您能否稍微談談這種混合可能是怎樣演變的？

And if we were to expect a better period of discretionary spend, should we see another period of the branded checkout button growing in line if not faster, than the industry?

如果我們預期可自由支配支出將出現更好的成長，那麼我們是否應該看到品牌結帳按鈕的另一個成長時期與產業同步甚至更快？

Good morning, Tim.

早安，提姆。

So when you look at the composition of our verticals now, I would say that one of the things we've done a really nice job of in the last couple of years is really expanding to services.

因此，當你現在看看我們垂直產業的組成時，我想說，過去幾年我們做得非常好的事情之一就是向服務領域的擴展。

And when you look at some of the dynamics that you might have seen three or four years ago, when you shift to now, we're just more balanced across different verticals.

當您回顧三、四年前可能看到的一些動態時，轉向現在，我們會發現我們在不同垂直領域的平衡性更強。

And I mentioned some of the growth in a few of the areas, but services in particular is one that has been a larger space.

我提到了一些領域的成長，但服務業的成長空間尤其大。

So I expect the dynamic to be more muted with respect to that discretionary side of it, on the good side of it.

因此，我預計，就其自由裁量權而言，動態將會更加溫和，這是好的一面。

Sanjay Sakhrani, KBW.

桑傑薩克拉尼（Sanjay Sakhrani），KBW。

Just a follow-up question on the US branded volume.

這只是一個關於美國品牌銷售的後續問題。

I think, Alex, you mentioned that it exited the quarter at the high point.

我認為，亞歷克斯，你提到它在高點退出了該季度。

I mean, is there any color on sort of what that growth rate was and how it trended into this new year quarter to date?

我的意思是，有沒有具體資訊可以說明成長率是多少，以及今年新季度迄今的成長率趨勢如何？

Yeah.

是的。

So really, the way I think about branded US is that we have been moving along, and we're obviously very focused on continuing to shift, continuing to impact our US market position.

所以實際上，我對美國品牌的看法是，我們一直在前進，而且我們顯然非常專注於繼續轉變，繼續影響我們在美國市場的地位。

And Alex talked about a lot of the innovation, specifically around mobile and around a couple of other areas that is really focused on driving shifting there.

亞歷克斯談到了很多創新，特別是圍繞著行動領域和其他幾個真正致力於推動轉變的領域。

We saw some lapping in the first part of the year.

我們在今年上半年看到了一些重疊。

But as we hit third quarter and into fourth quarter in particular, that was pure growth off a base.

但當我們進入第三季度，特別是第四季度時，這是純粹的基礎成長。

And that 3 points was reflective of that.

這 3 分就體現了這一點。

Colin Sebastian, Baird.

科林·塞巴斯蒂安，貝爾德。

Maybe turning to the non-transaction expenses for the year.

也許要轉向今年的非交易費用。

I was just hoping you could maybe expand on, first, I guess, the ability to use AI for more operating efficiency.

我只是希望你能擴展一下，首先，我想，使用人工智慧來提高營運效率的能力。

And are those initiatives that are requiring some incremental investment near term?

這些措施是否需要在短期內增加一些投資？

Or are you already seeing sort of a positive ROI from that?

或者您已經看到了某種正面的投資報酬率？

And relatedly, with the focus on scaling innovations and educating consumers, I guess what does that mean specifically in terms of the investments in customer acquisition and rewards that might be impacting margins -- operating margins through the year?

與此相關的是，由於重點是擴大創新和教育消費者，我想，這對於可能影響利潤率（全年營業利潤率）的客戶獲取和獎勵投資而言具體意味著什麼？

Yeah.

是的。

Thank you, Colin.

謝謝你，科林。

Let me start with AI and then maybe hand it over to Jamie.

讓我先從人工智慧開始，然後也許把它交給傑米。

AI is opening up a huge opportunity for us.

人工智慧正在為我們帶來巨大的機會。

First, at our scale, we saw 26 billion transactions on our platform last year.

首先，以我們的規模來說，去年我們的平台交易量達 260 億筆。

We have a massive data set that we are actively working in and investing in to be able to drive our effectiveness and efficiency.

我們擁有龐大的數據集，我們正在積極地研究和投資，以提高我們的效率。

Let me break it into a couple of different pieces.

讓我將其分成幾個不同的部分。

First, on the customer-facing side, we're leveraging AI to really become more efficient in our support cases and how we interact with our customers.

首先，在面向客戶方面，我們正在利用人工智慧來真正提高我們的支援案例和與客戶互動的效率。

We see tens of millions of support cases every year, and we've rolled out our PayPal Assistant, which is now really cutting down phone calls and active events that we have.

我們每年都會看到數千萬個支援案例，並且我們已經推出了 PayPal 助手，它現在確實減少了我們的電話呼叫和活躍事件。

We also are leveraging AI to personalize the commerce journey, and so working with our merchants to be able to understand and create this really magical experience for consumers.

我們也利用人工智慧來個人化商業旅程，從而與我們的商家合作，以便能夠理解並為消費者創造這種真正神奇的體驗。

When they show up at checkout, it's not just a static button anymore.

當他們出現在結帳處時，它不再只是一個靜態按鈕了。

This really can become a dynamic, personalized button that starts to understand the profile of the consumer, the journey that they've been on perhaps across merchants and be able to enable a reward or a cashback offer in the moment or even a Buy Now, Pay Later offer in a dynamic experience.

這真的可以成為一個動態的、個人化的按鈕，開始了解消費者的個人資料，了解他們在各個商家的購物歷程，並能夠立即提供獎勵或現金返還優惠，甚至是立即購買。提供稍後付款服務。

And so this is all AI-enabled and all things that will generate both efficiency for us from the consumer standpoint, but also drive more branded checkout and more sales for our merchants.

所以這一切都是由人工智慧實現的，所有這些不僅從消費者的角度為我們帶來效率，而且還會為我們的商家帶來更多的品牌結帳和更多的銷售。

In addition, we also are looking at our back office and ensuring that not just on the engineering and employee productivity side, but also in things like our risk decisions.

此外，我們也在關注我們的後台辦公室，確保不僅在工程和員工生產力方面，而且在風險決策等方面。

We see billions and billions of risk decisions that often, to be honest, we're very manual in the past.

我們看到了數十億個風險決策，老實說，我們過去往往都是手動的。

We're now leveraging AI to be able to understand globally what are the nature of these risk decisions and how do we automate these across both risk models as well as even just ensuring that customers get the right response at the right time in an automated fashion?

我們現在正在利用人工智慧來全面了解這些風險決策的性質，以及如何在兩種風險模型中實現自動化，甚至只是確保客戶以自動化的方式在正確的時間得到正確的回應？

Yeah.

是的。

And then with respect to scaling consumer and non-transaction OpEx, we increased our marketing spend in 2024 by about $250 million, and we were very focused around really reinvigorating the brand and then really reinforcing the consumer value prop as we did it, And as we get into 2025, we will be increasing marketing slightly.

然後，在擴大消費者和非交易營運支出方面，我們在 2024 年增加了約 2.5 億美元的行銷支出，我們非常專注於真正重振品牌，然後在這樣做的同時真正強化消費者價值主張，進入2025 年，我們將會略微增加行銷。

Our total OpEx guide is up low single digits.

我們的總營運支出指導值上升了個位數。

I would say marketing is up low single digits plus in terms of how we look at it, heavily weighted towards the second quarter as we really look at the profile throughout the year.

我想說的是，行銷業務成長了個位數，而且就我們的角度來看，第二季的業績佔比很大，因為我們真正關注的是全年的情況。

It's been very targeted.

這是非常有針對性的。

And we've seen the results of that starting to come true with consumer MAAs up sequentially.

而我們已經看到了這項成果開始實現，消費者 MAA 不斷上升。

We saw debit card MAAs up sequentially.

我們看到借記卡 MAA 連續上升。

We're seeing P2P improvement.

我們看到了 P2P 的改進。

So there's been a nice kind of flow through of what we've seen.

因此，我們看到了一種很好的流通方式。

We've got some CAC, or customer acquisition cost, budgeted for this year but we really haven't started deploying that yet.

我們已經為今年制定了一些 CAC（客戶獲取成本）預算，但實際上我們還沒有開始部署。

We've been testing that.

我們一直在測試這一點。

But the full suite will be things that we'll be looking to deploy as we get into 2025.

但到 2025 年，我們才會部署全套技術。

Harshita Rawat, Bernstein.

哈爾希塔·拉瓦特（Harshita Rawat）、伯恩斯坦。

I want to follow up on Fastlane.

我想跟進 Fastlane。

You talked about the new merchant wins.

您談到了新商人的勝利。

Now that the holiday season is over, and the merchants are more open to integrating new solutions, how are those conversations going with large merchants especially because there's also some competitive dynamics there?

現在假期已經結束，商家對整合新解決方案更加開放，與大型商家的對話進展如何，特別是考慮到那裡也存在一些競爭態勢？

And then, Alex, you also talked about 75% of Fastlane consumers kind of being new or dormant PayPal users.

然後，亞歷克斯，您還談到 75% 的 Fastlane 消費者都是新用戶或休眠 PayPal 用戶。

Can you just remind us about how you're converting those into PayPal users?

您能否提醒我們一下您是如何將這些人轉換為 PayPal 用戶的？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Harshita.

謝謝，Harshita。

So you're exactly right.

所以你說得完全正確。

Our -- so guest Checkout, just as a reminder, for Fastlane, this is really six months in the market.

我們的 - 所以客人結帳，只是提醒一下，對於Fastlane來說，這實際上是在市場上六個月的時間。

So it's still brand new.

所以它仍然是全新的。

There are other guest Checkout experiences that have been in the market for -- some for many years, one almost up to a decade.

市場上還有其他客戶結帳體驗已經存在——有些已經存在很多年，甚至有一個已經存在了近十年。

And so we're the new entrant, but we're delivering the best converting experience for our merchants.

雖然我們是新進者，但我們正在為商家提供最佳的轉換體驗。

And that's what gets us really excited.

這讓我們非常興奮。

As we start to scale our Fastlane experience, we are still continuing to deliver double-digit lift in conversion for our merchants.

當我們開始擴展我們的 Fastlane 體驗時，我們仍在繼續為商家提供兩位數的轉換率提升。

And so our focus -- our go-to-market focus has been really on those enterprise merchants, on the largest ones.

因此，我們的重點——我們的市場重點實際上一直放在那些企業商家上，放在最大的企業商家上。

I mentioned a few on the call, NBCUniversal, Roku, StockX.

我在電話會議中提到了一些，NBCUniversal、Roku、StockX。

And this has been obviously set up conversations throughout the holiday season as many of them weren't ready to actually do the integration.

顯然，這已經是整個假期期間人們討論的話題了，因為其中許多人還沒有準備好真正進行整合。

But now as we get into '25, it's full steam ahead.

但現在，隨著我們進入 25 年，一切都已全速前進。

Now just as a reminder, as we have these conversations, they are very excited about the conversion uplift.

現在提醒一下，當我們進行這些對話時，他們對轉換率的提升感到非常興奮。

Guest checkout is also not something that they've spent a lot of time playing around with.

他們也沒有花很多時間去考慮訪客結帳問題。

So it's not like these merchants have a scrum team sitting there ready to play around with guest checkout.

所以這些商家並不是有一個 Scrum 團隊坐在那裡準備處理客人結帳問題。

So they're working on their road maps.

因此他們正在製定路線圖。

So the conversations have been great.

對話非常愉快。

It's now about getting implementation done.

現在要做的是完成實施。

And I do think this will take a number of quarters for us to really scale this out across the merchant base.

我確實認為我們需要幾個季度的時間才能真正在整個商家群體中推廣這項計劃。

But the conversations are exciting, merchants are on board, and I think we'll continue to see this scale.

但對話令人興奮，商家也參與其中，我認為我們將繼續看到這種規模。

To your question on what we're seeing from a customer perspective, again, we -- 25% of Fastlane users that are coming in are new to PayPal. 50% were dormant in the last 12 months.

關於從客戶角度來看我們看到了什麼的問題，我們再次重申，25％的 Fastlane 用戶都是 PayPal 新用戶。其中 50% 在過去 12 個月內處於閒置狀態。

And again, these are customers that are opting into Fastlane at 45% clip.

再次強調，這些顧客選擇加入 Fastlane 的比例為 45%。

So we're continuing to see customers choosing to, once they go into that guest checkout experience, actually opt in to the Fastlane experience.

因此，我們繼續看到客戶選擇在進入訪客結帳體驗後加入 Fastlane 體驗。

To us, this is just scratching the surface of being able to now reinvigorate them.

對我們來說，這只是重振它們的第一步。

So we started to really ramp up our marketing efforts.

因此我們開始真正加大行銷力度。

It's still early, and it's through both off-line channels, things like e-mail, testing notifications, as well as online through the app to find incentives and reasons for these consumers to be able to reengage in the PayPal experience.

現在還為時過早，我們正在透過線下管道（例如電子郵件和測試通知）以及線上應用程式來尋找激勵措施和理由，讓這些消費者能夠重新參與 PayPal 體驗。

The good news is it's sort of a second bite at the apple, right?

好消息是，這就像是第二次嘗試，對吧？

They've gone past the branded experience.

他們已經超越了品牌體驗。

They've gone through a guest checkout experience.

他們已經經歷過賓客結帳體驗。

We've accelerated it for them and for merchants.

我們已經為他們和商家加速了這一進程。

We've created that conversion.

我們已經創建了該轉換。

And now we can go and remind those consumers what a great experience a cash-back offer, a package tracking offer, a full end-to-end experience they could have gotten through a branded Checkout.

現在我們可以去提醒那些消費者，透過品牌結帳他們可以獲得多麼棒的體驗：現金回饋優惠、包裹追蹤優惠、完整的端到端體驗。

And we're going to continue to lean into that to reignite those users into being more consistent active users on PayPal.

我們將繼續利用這一點來重新激勵這些用戶成為 PayPal 上更活躍的用戶。

The last thing just that I'd say as context is our PayPal users that are online don't use PayPal for every single one of their purchases.

我最後要說的是，我們的線上 PayPal 用戶並不是每次購買都會使用 PayPal。

This is why the omnichannel habituation and just continuing to drive up not just our MAAs, but those power users that I talked about that are really using us for all of their purchases is so important to us.

這就是為什麼全通路習慣以及持續提高不僅僅是我們的 MAA，而且還有我提到的那些真正使用我們進行所有購買的超級​​用戶對我們如此重要。

Because we still have users that love PayPal, have an active app, use us, but still use us for just a fraction.

因為我們仍然有喜歡 PayPal、擁有活躍應用程式、使用我們的用戶，但使用我們產品的人數仍然很少。

And so our ability, even through the Fastlane experience to gather those users up and remind them of the benefits of actually going through the branded experience of PayPal is so important and will ultimately drive to our branded checkout growth.

因此，即使透過 Fastlane 體驗，我們也能聚集這些用戶，並提醒他們實際體驗 PayPal 品牌體驗的好處，這一點非常重要，並最終將推動我們品牌結帳的成長。

Sarah, we have time for one more question.

莎拉，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Trevor Williams, Jefferies.

崔佛威廉斯 (Trevor Williams)，傑富瑞 (Jefferies)。

I wanted to go back to Venmo.

我想回到 Venmo。

Jamie, it sounded like next to branded, it was one of the biggest contributors to TM dollar growth in Q4.

傑米，聽起來，除了品牌之外，它是第四季度 TM 美元增長的最大貢獻者之一。

You guys have given some good stats on attach rate and user growth across the different buckets.

你們給了不同類別的附加率和用戶成長情況的一些很好的統計數據。

But it would be helpful if you could get an updated transaction margin dollar number for Venmo.

但如果您能獲得 Venmo 的最新交易保證金美元數字，那將會很有幫助。

And then anything more just on the current mix of revenue across the different buckets, debit card, Pay with Venmo, instant transfer?

還有什麼關於當前不同管道收入組合的更多信息，例如借記卡、Venmo 支付和即時轉帳嗎？

And then just how you're thinking about Venmo's contribution to transaction margin dollar growth in '25.

然後您如何看待 Venmo 對 25 年交易利潤美元成長的貢獻。

Yeah.

是的。

So Venmo has been a growing contributor to transaction margin dollar growth.

因此，Venmo 對交易利潤率成長的貢獻越來越大。

Certainly in '24, it was behind interest branded Checkout, Braintree, et cetera.

當然，在 24 年，它落後於 Checkout、Braintree 等品牌。

As we get into 2025, it continues to grow in terms of its impact on TM, which is really great to see.

隨著我們進入 2025 年，它對 TM 的影響將繼續增長，這真是令人高興的。

When you look at -- our Venmo TPV was up 10% in the fourth quarter.

你看一下——我們的 Venmo TPV 在第四季度上漲了 10%。

Our debit card TPV was up 40%.

我們的金融卡TPV上漲了40%。

Pay with Venmo was up 50%.

使用 Venmo 付款的人數增加了 50%。

P2P was up 8%.

P2P上漲8%。

So we're really excited about not only the core P2P continued strength, but also just the beginnings of the investments we're making in debit and Pay with Venmo which, when we really dig into this, which is really our new Venmo leaders' target in 2025, we're excited about the growth we can drive.

因此，我們不僅對核心 P2P 的持續強勁感到興奮，而且對我們在藉記卡和 Venmo 支付方面的投資也感到興奮，當我們真正深入研究這一點時，這實際上是我們新的 Venmo 領導者的2025 年的目標，我們對能夠實現的成長感到非常興奮。

When we get to Investor Day at the end of February, we'll unpack this with a lot more detail, and we're looking forward to talking to you all there.

當二月底的投資者日到來時，我們會更詳細地探討這個問題，我們期待在那裡與大家交談。

Alex, any final thoughts?

亞歷克斯，還有什麼想說的嗎？

No, just a huge thank you to all of you, and thanks, Steve.

不，只是非常感謝你們所有人，謝謝，史蒂夫。

I look forward to seeing many of you later this month at our Investor Day on February 25, where we will share our vision for the future and dive into our strategies for medium and long-term growth and what it's going to take to get us there.

我期待在本月稍後的 2 月 25 日投資者日上見到你們，屆時我們將分享我們對未來的願景，並深入探討我們的中長期成長策略以及實現這一目標所需的條件。

So take care, everyone.

所以大家要保重。

This concludes today's conference.

今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。