(PYPL) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Donna, and I'll be your conference operator for today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to PayPal Holdings' earnings conference call for the fourth quarter 2021. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Ms. Gabrielle Rabinovitch, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

下午好。我叫唐娜，今天我將擔任您的會議接線員。在此，歡迎大家參加 PayPal Holdings 2021 年第四季度財報電話會議。（操作員說明）謝謝。我現在想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，公司財務和投資者關係高級副總裁 Gabrielle Rabinovitch 女士。請繼續。

Thank you, Donna. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. Welcome to PayPal's earnings conference call for the fourth quarter of 2021. Joining me today on the call are Dan Schulman, our President and CEO; and John Rainey, our Chief Financial Officer and EVP, Global Customer Operations.

謝謝你，唐娜。下午好，感謝您加入我們。歡迎參加 PayPal 2021 年第四季度的收益電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Dan Schulman；以及我們的首席財務官兼全球客戶運營執行副總裁 John Rainey。

We're providing a slide presentation to accompany our commentary. This conference call is also being webcast, and both the presentation and call are available on our Investor Relations website.

我們正在提供幻燈片演示來配合我們的評論。本次電話會議也正在進行網絡直播，我們的投資者關係網站上提供了演示文稿和電話會議。

In discussing our company's performance, we will refer to some non-GAAP measures. You can find the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the presentation accompanying this conference call.

在討論我們公司的業績時，我們將參考一些非公認會計準則指標。您可以在本次電話會議隨附的演示文稿中找到這些非 GAAP 措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的對賬。

Management will make forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations, forecasts and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. These statements include our guidance for the first quarter and full year 2022 and our medium-term outlook. Our actual results may differ materially from these statements. You can find more information about risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our results in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC and available on our Investor Relations website. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. All information in this presentation is as of today's date, February 1, 2022. We expressly disclaim any obligation to update this information.

管理層將根據我們當前的預期、預測和假設做出前瞻性陳述，並涉及風險和不確定性。這些聲明包括我們對 2022 年第一季度和全年的指導以及我們的中期展望。我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述大不相同。您可以在我們最近提交給 SEC 的 10-K 表格年度報告和 10-Q 表格季度報告中找到有關可能影響我們業績的風險、不確定性和其他因素的更多信息，並可在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱。您不應過分依賴任何前瞻性陳述。本演示文稿中的所有信息截至今天，即 2022 年 2 月 1 日。我們明確表示不承擔更新此信息的任何義務。

With that, let me turn the call over to Dan.

有了這個，讓我把電話轉給丹。

Thanks, Gabrielle, and thanks, everyone, for joining us. Today, I'm going to highlight our 2021 results, but I also want to spend time discussing the opportunities and challenges we face this year.

謝謝加布里埃爾，也謝謝大家加入我們。今天，我將重點介紹我們 2021 年的業績，但我也想花時間討論我們今年面臨的機遇和挑戰。

2021 was one of the strongest years in PayPal's history. Our revenues grew by 18% to $25.4 billion, and our non-GAAP EPS grew 19% to $4.60. We surpassed $1 trillion in annual TPV for the first time in our history, ending the year with $1.25 trillion of total payment volume. We had a record 5.3 billion transactions in Q4 alone, up 21%. We added 49 million net new active accounts to exit the year with 426 million active accounts, including 34 million merchants.

2021 年是 PayPal 歷史上最強勁的年份之一。我們的收入增長了 18% 至 254 億美元，我們的非公認會計原則每股收益增長了 19% 至 4.60 美元。我們的年度 TPV 歷史上首次超過 1 萬億美元，年底總支付額達到 1.25 萬億美元。僅在第四季度，我們就有創紀錄的 53 億筆交易，增長了 21%。全年新增淨活躍賬戶 4900 萬，活躍賬戶 4.26 億，其中商戶 3400 萬。

In the last 2 years, we added 122 million net new active accounts. And despite that spike in new users, our transactions per active account grew to 45 this past year, an 11% increase. And last but not least, we generated $5.4 billion in annual free cash flow.

在過去 2 年中，我們新增了 1.22 億個淨活躍賬戶。儘管新用戶數量激增，但去年我們每個活躍賬戶的交易量增長到 45 筆，增長了 11%。最後但同樣重要的是，我們每年產生 54 億美元的自由現金流。

With all that said, 2021 was also a difficult year. It was a particularly hard year to forecast. eBay's migration to managed payments happened faster than we anticipated. Overall, eBay put $1.4 billion of pressure on our top line, reducing our revenue growth by 700 basis points. Ex eBay, our revenue growth was very strong, growing 29% on a spot basis for the full year and 22% in Q4.

儘管如此，2021年也是艱難的一年。這是特別難以預測的一年。 eBay 向託管支付遷移的速度比我們預期的要快。總體而言，eBay 給我們的收入帶來了 14 億美元的壓力，使我們的收入增長減少了 700 個基點。前 eBay，我們的收入增長非常強勁，全年即期收入增長 29%，第四季度增長 22%。

Exogenous factors also did impact our results. Supply chain issues disproportionately impacted our cross-border volumes and our small business merchants. Inflationary pressures impacted spending within certain segments of our user base. Rising threats from COVID variants cut travel and event bookings, and the elimination of government stimulus had an impact as well. E-commerce growth rates during the holiday season were lower than industry expectations despite a strong 2-year growth rate of almost 50%. And we are also lapping some of the strongest quarters of growth in our history. Even so, we once again grew our market share and came within our revenue guidance for the quarter.

外生因素也確實影響了我們的結果。供應鏈問題不成比例地影響了我們的跨境交易量和我們的小商家。通貨膨脹壓力影響了我們用戶群某些部分的支出。來自新冠病毒變種的威脅不斷增加，減少了旅行和活動預訂，政府刺激措施的取消也產生了影響。儘管 2 年的強勁增長率接近 50%，但假期期間的電子商務增長率仍低於行業預期。我們也正在經歷我們歷史上一些最強勁的增長季度。即便如此，我們再次擴大了市場份額，並在本季度的收入指導範圍內。

2022 is going to be a year of transformation and investment as we transition from outsized growth driven by lockdowns during the pandemic and finalize the lapping of eBay's managed payments transition. eBay's transition will put an incremental $600 million of pressure on our top line. Approximately $400 million in Q1 and $200 million in Q2. In the second half of the year, I look forward to being able to stop adjusting for eBay and letting the strength of our core results speak for themselves.

2022 年將是轉型和投資的一年，因為我們正在從大流行期間由封鎖驅動的超大增長過渡並最終完成 eBay 的託管支付過渡。 eBay 的轉型將給我們的收入增加 6 億美元的壓力。第一季度約為 4 億美元，第二季度約為 2 億美元。在下半年，我期待能夠停止為 eBay 進行調整，並讓我們的核心業績的實力不言而喻。

Our growth ex eBay has consistently been above 20%, and our year-over-2-year growth rates have been remarkably stable, again demonstrating the underlying strength of our platform. As I take a step back to reflect, it's clear we are in a significantly stronger position than when we entered the pandemic, with the world continuing to digitize, the use of cash dissipating and the move towards omnichannel commerce accelerating. Our vision of becoming an essential consumer financial super app across payments, basic financial services and shopping tools is more relevant than ever before, and our tens of millions of merchants continue to look to us to provide a comprehensive platform for them to navigate the digital economy where the lines between virtual and physical commerce are disappearing.

我們在 eBay 之前的增長一直在 20% 以上，我們的同比增長率非常穩定，再次證明了我們平台的潛在實力。當我退後一步反思時，很明顯，與我們進入大流行時相比，我們處於明顯更有利的位置，隨著世界繼續數字化，現金的使用正在消散以及向全渠道商務的加速發展。我們成為跨支付、基本金融服務和購物工具的重要消費金融超級應用程序的願景比以往任何時候都更加重要，我們的數千萬商家繼續期待我們為他們提供一個全面的平台，讓他們駕馭數字經濟虛擬商務和實體商務之間的界限正在消失。

The past 2 years have revealed new insights about our customers. We have seen their behaviors and expectations evolve throughout the pandemic with corresponding impacts on the key drivers of our business model. Consequently, as John will discuss in more detail, we are shifting our emphasis more towards engagement and towards driving higher-value NNAs. Consumers who are more engaged drive incremental sales for our merchants, and they drive growth at much higher margins and ROI. Over time, we obviously still expect to grow our net new actives but more in line with our pre-pandemic levels. At the same time, we fully expect engagement will increase above our current trend lines while we accelerate revenue and EPS growth throughout the year.

在過去的 2 年中，我們對我們的客戶有了新的見解。我們已經看到他們的行為和期望在整個大流行期間發生了變化，並對我們商業模式的關鍵驅動因素產生了相應的影響。因此，正如約翰將更詳細地討論的那樣，我們正在將重點更多地轉向參與和推動更高價值的 NNA。參與度更高的消費者為我們的商家推動了銷售額的增長，他們以更高的利潤率和投資回報率推動了增長。隨著時間的推移，我們顯然仍然希望增加我們的淨新活性物質，但更符合我們大流行前的水平。與此同時，我們完全預計參與度將超過我們目前的趨勢線，同時我們全年加速收入和每股收益增長。

Our forecast for 2022 is appropriately measured giving -- given the difficult comps in the first half and an unpredictable macroeconomic environment. We're going to focus our energy on what we can control, including key product and go-to-market initiatives that will enable us to capture the numerous opportunities that are inherent in the secular shift to digital.

鑑於上半年困難重重和不可預測的宏觀經濟環境，我們對 2022 年的預測是適當衡量的。我們將把精力集中在我們可以控制的事情上，包括關鍵產品和上市計劃，這將使我們能夠抓住長期向數字化轉變所固有的眾多機會。

At the same time, we will drive increased operating leverage in order to enter 2023 with revenues and non-GAAP EPS growing at over 20%. The underlying fundamentals of our business are strong, and our team is executing to win. Last year, we launched more products and experience for our customers than any other year in our history. We integrated Honey into the new PayPal app to help consumers shop and discover deals and new brands. We expanded our checkout capabilities to help consumers pay on their own terms, whether in-store with QR codes, over time with buy now, pay later or with the emerging funding sources like cryptocurrencies or reward points. And we acquired Happy Returns to anchor our post-purchase process and make returns easier and more affordable. We expect these investments will continue to drive increasing engagement.

同時，我們將推動提高經營槓桿率，以便進入 2023 年，收入和非公認會計準則每股收益增長超過 20%。我們業務的基本面是強大的，我們的團隊正在執行以取勝。去年，我們為客戶推出了比歷史上任何一年都多的產品和體驗。我們將 Honey 集成到新的 PayPal 應用程序中，以幫助消費者購物和發現優惠和新品牌。我們擴展了結賬功能，以幫助消費者按照自己的條件付款，無論是在店內使用 QR 碼，隨著時間的推移立即購買、稍後付款，還是使用加密貨幣或獎勵積分等新興資金來源。我們收購了 Happy Returns 來鞏固我們的購買後流程，讓退貨變得更容易、更實惠。我們預計這些投資將繼續推動參與度的提高。

We are intently focused on taking our best-in-class checkout experiences to even greater heights. Through our investments, we are making it faster and easier to check out with some of the highest authorization rates in our history. Today, more than 70% of the top North American and European retailers, including more than 80% of the top U.S. retailers accept PayPal or Venmo at checkout.

我們專注於將我們一流的結賬體驗提升到更高的水平。通過我們的投資，我們以歷史上最高的授權率讓結賬變得更快、更容易。如今，超過 70% 的北美和歐洲頂級零售商，包括超過 80% 的美國頂級零售商在結賬時接受 PayPal 或 Venmo。

We continue to grow our market leadership in branded payments with our average share of checkout among top merchants continuing to increase. Last quarter, we signed new or expanded agreements with Instacart, Gap Inc. DoorDash, Adobe, Oracle and Salesforce. Buy now, pay later is a perfect example of the type of investment we are making to give shoppers and retailers more reasons to engage with PayPal. Buy now, pay later is available in 8 markets, including with Paidy in Japan. We continue to see rapid consumer adoption with $3.2 billion of buy now, pay later TPV in Q4 alone, a $13 billion run rate with Q4 growth of over 325% year-over-year. We've processed 54 million loans globally since launch, with 13 million unique consumers and 1.2 million merchants using our buy now, pay later services.

隨著我們在頂級商家中的平均結賬份額繼續增加，我們繼續提高我們在品牌支付方面的市場領導地位。上個季度，我們與 Instacart、Gap Inc. DoorDash、Adobe、Oracle 和 Salesforce 簽署了新的或擴展的協議。現在購買，以後付款是我們為購物者和零售商提供更多使用 PayPal 的理由而進行的投資類型的完美示例。現在購買，稍後付款可在 8 個市場使用，包括日本的 Payy。我們繼續看到消費者迅速採用 32 億美元的“立即購買”，僅在第四季度支付 TPV，即 130 億美元的運行率，第四季度同比增長超過 325%。自推出以來，我們已在全球處理了 5400 萬筆貸款，有 1300 萬獨立消費者和 120 萬商家使用我們的“先買後付”服務。

Venmo had a solid finish to the year and closed out 2021 with more than $0.25 billion of revenue in the fourth quarter, up 80% year-over-year. We are still at the beginning of our monetization journey with Amazon implementing the option to pay with Venmo later this year. And Venmo is turning an important corner and in Q4, helped to drive the sequential increase in our overall take rate.

Venmo 全年業績穩健，2021 年第四季度收入超過 2.5 億美元，同比增長 80%。我們仍處於與亞馬遜在今年晚些時候實施使用 Venmo 支付選項的貨幣化之旅的開始。 Venmo 正在轉向一個重要的轉折點，並在第四季度幫助推動了我們整體採用率的連續增長。

As always, we've got a lot of work ahead of us. We are fortunate that we have so many assets to leverage in a future that is clearly moving in our direction. We have a 2-sided network at scale. We are one of the most trusted brands in the world. We have tremendous financial strength with a strong balance sheet, and we anticipate generating approximately $6 billion of free cash flow in 2022. We have a seasoned and experienced team with strong relationships with customers, regulators and policymakers around the world.

與往常一樣，我們還有很多工作要做。我們很幸運，我們有這麼多資產可以在未來明顯朝著我們的方向發展。我們有一個大規模的雙面網絡。我們是世界上最值得信賴的品牌之一。我們擁有強大的資產負債表和強大的財務實力，預計 2022 年將產生約 60 億美元的自由現金流。我們擁有一支經驗豐富且經驗豐富的團隊，與世界各地的客戶、監管機構和政策制定者建立了牢固的關係。

I want to thank the PayPal team for all they do, for staying focused, innovating at scale, delivering more product than ever before with record platform stability and availability in a time where our payment volumes have nearly doubled over the past 2 years.

我要感謝 PayPal 團隊所做的一切，他們保持專注、大規模創新，在過去 2 年我們的支付量幾乎翻了一番的情況下，以創紀錄的平台穩定性和可用性交付了比以往更多的產品。

I'm excited about building on the underlying momentum of our core business, and I know our team feels that same sense of purpose and optimism. And with that, let me turn the call over to John.

我對建立我們核心業務的潛在動力感到興奮，我知道我們的團隊也有同樣的使命感和樂觀主義。有了這個，讓我把電話轉給約翰。

Thanks, Dan. I'd like to start off by thanking our customers, partners and employees for helping us deliver an outstanding year following our record-breaking performance in 2020. There are several important points that I want to discuss today. I'm going to discuss a pivot in our strategy to focus more on engagement and what that means for our net new actives going forward. I also want to discuss why we are taking a more conservative outlook for 2022 for both revenue and earnings, and lastly, that we don't believe either of these items will prevent us from achieving the revenue and earnings growth rates, along with our free cash flow objectives in the outyears of the period contemplated in our medium-term guidance.

謝謝，丹。首先，我要感謝我們的客戶、合作夥伴和員工，他們幫助我們在 2020 年創紀錄的表現之後創造了出色的一年。我今天想討論幾個重要的點。我將討論我們戰略中的一個支點，以更多地關注參與，以及這對我們未來的淨新活躍用戶意味著什麼。我還想討論為什麼我們對 2022 年的收入和盈利前景採取更為保守的展望，最後，我們認為這些項目中的任何一項都不會阻止我們實現收入和盈利增長率，以及我們的免費在我們的中期指導中預期的期間外的現金流量目標。

But first, I want to spend a moment discussing our Q4 performance. 2021 certainly had its ups and downs, but when one steps back and looks at our overall performance, it was really an amazing year. TPV grew 33%. Revenue grew 18%, and we generated $5.4 billion in free cash flow. We also added 49 million customer accounts, ending the year with 426 million. And our engagement metric, transactions per active account, grew 11%, an acceleration of approximately 10 percentage points from 2020.

但首先，我想花點時間討論一下我們第四季度的表現。 2021 年當然有起有落，但當我們退後一步，看看我們的整體表現時，這真是令人驚嘆的一年。 TPV 增長 33%。收入增長了 18%，我們產生了 54 億美元的自由現金流。我們還增加了 4900 萬個客戶賬戶，到年底達到 4.26 億個。我們的參與度指標（每個活躍賬戶的交易量）增長了 11%，比 2020 年增長了約 10 個百分點。

Remarkably, in 2021, growth on our platform, excluding eBay, accelerated meaningfully on top of extraordinary performance in 2020. TPV growth accelerated more than 500 basis points to 38%, and revenue growth accelerated more than 600 basis points to 29%.

值得注意的是，除了 2020 年的非凡表現，我們平台（不包括 eBay）的增長在 2021 年顯著加速。TPV 增長超過 500 個基點，達到 38%，收入增長超過 600 個基點，達到 29%。

Since 2019, our volumes ex eBay have nearly doubled. And overall, we've consistently grown volumes well ahead of industry growth rates. We also advanced our leadership position in checkout. Since the start of the pandemic, on average, our share of checkout among the largest publicly traded merchants has increased by nearly 200 basis points.

自 2019 年以來，我們在 eBay 上的交易量幾乎翻了一番。總體而言，我們的銷量增長一直遠超行業增長率。我們還提升了我們在結賬方面的領導地位。自大流行開始以來，我們在最大的公開交易商家中的結賬份額平均增加了近 200 個基點。

Further, in the U.S., consumer adoption of our digital wallets is several times higher than the next nearest wallet. And our merchant acceptance leads all other checkout buttons by an even more sizable margin. By any measure, we are a leader in digital payments. There are only a handful of companies that generate the amount of revenue and free cash flow growth that we do annually, and we are confident that our long-term market opportunity is greater than ever.

此外，在美國，消費者對我們數字錢包的採用率是最近的錢包的數倍。我們的商家接受度以更大的優勢領先於所有其他結帳按鈕。無論以何種標準衡量，我們都是數字支付領域的領導者。只有少數幾家公司能夠產生我們每年的收入和自由現金流增長，我們相信我們的長期市場機會比以往任何時候都大。

In the fourth quarter, total payment volume grew 23% to $340 billion. eBay volumes in the quarter declined 45% and represented 2.7% of total volumes versus 6% last year. And excluding eBay, volumes grew 28% on a currency-neutral basis. Revenue in the quarter increased 13% to $6.9 billion. Revenue ex eBay grew 22%, which is 2 points ahead of our medium-term growth outlook. This strong performance was broad-based across Braintree, Venmo, core PayPal and our credit products.

第四季度，支付總額增長 23% 至 3400 億美元。本季度 eBay 交易量下降 45%，佔總交易量的 2.7%，而去年為 6%。不包括 eBay，在貨幣中性的基礎上，交易量增長了 28%。本季度收入增長 13% 至 69 億美元。 eBay 前收入增長 22%，比我們的中期增長展望高出 2 個百分點。這種強勁的表現廣泛應用於 Braintree、Venmo、核心 PayPal 和我們的信貸產品。

Relative to the fourth quarter of 2020, U.S. revenue grew 27% and international revenue decreased 1%. Supply chain shortages and eBay's transition adversely impacted cross-border volumes and foreign exchange fees. Ex eBay, international revenue grew 11%. Importantly, on a currency-neutral basis, the 2-year compounded growth rate for revenue in the quarter remained consistent with the fourth quarter of 2020 underscoring the strength and consistency of our business.

相對於 2020 年第四季度，美國收入增長 27%，國際收入下降 1%。供應鏈短缺和 eBay 的轉型對跨境交易量和外匯費用產生了不利影響。前 eBay，國際收入增長 11%。重要的是，在貨幣中性的基礎上，本季度收入的 2 年復合增長率與 2020 年第四季度保持一致，突顯了我們業務的實力和一致性。

In the fourth quarter, total take rate was 2.04%, and transaction take rate was 1.88%. Notably, both increased sequentially, reversing an approximately 2-year trend of sequential take rate declines. Both product mix and pricing benefited our performance.

第四季度，總取值為2.04%，交易取值為1.88%。值得注意的是，兩者均環比增長，扭轉了大約 2 年的環比下降趨勢。產品組合和定價都使我們的業績受益。

In the fourth quarter, our volume-based expense performance was strong. Transaction expense increased 3 basis points as a rate of TPV to 87 basis points driven by volume mix, particularly our growth in Braintree volumes and Q4 seasonality, which increases credit card mix relative to other funding instruments.

在第四季度，我們基於數量的費用表現強勁。交易費用作為 TPV 的比率增加了 3 個基點，達到 87 個基點，這是受交易量組合的推動，特別是我們在 Braintree 交易量和第四季度的季節性增長，這增加了信用卡組合相對於其他融資工具。

Transaction losses improved 1 basis point to 9 basis points, which matches the best performance we've reported in our history. Credit losses were 1 basis point as a rate of TPV versus 3 basis points last year driven by our mix of originations, portfolio performance and $9 million in reserve releases.

交易損失減少 1 個基點至 9 個基點，這與我們歷史上報告的最佳表現相匹配。 TPV 的信用損失率為 1 個基點，而去年為 3 個基點，這是由我們的發起、投資組合表現和 900 萬美元的準備金釋放所驅動的。

At the end of the quarter, our credit loss reserve coverage ratio was approximately 9%. In total, we released $312 million of reserves in 2021.

在本季度末，我們的信用損失準備金覆蓋率約為 9%。 2021 年，我們總共釋放了 3.12 億美元的準備金。

Transaction margin dollars increased 6% to $3.6 billion and ex eBay, grew 18%. Transaction margin as a rate declined 365 basis points to 52.3%. And our nontransaction-related expenses grew 10% in the quarter.

交易保證金美元增長 6% 至 36 億美元，前 eBay 增長 18%。交易利潤率下降 365 個基點至 52.3%。我們的非交易相關費用在本季度增長了 10%。

On a non-GAAP basis, operating income was flat in comparison to last year, and operating margin declined 291 basis points to 21.8%. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $1.11.

按非公認會計原則計算，營業收入與去年相比持平，營業利潤率下降 291 個基點至 21.8%。非公認會計原則每股收益為 1.11 美元。

We ended the year with cash, cash equivalents and investments of $16.3 billion. In addition, free cash flow increased 38% in the fourth quarter to $1.6 billion, and we repurchased $1.5 billion of stock in the quarter.

我們以 163 億美元的現金、現金等價物和投資結束了這一年。此外，第四季度的自由現金流增加了 38% 至 16 億美元，我們在該季度回購了 15 億美元的股票。

I'd now like to discuss our net new accounts and provide more context for our performance and our expectations for 2022. For the quarter, our guidance contemplated generating about 12.9 million net new actives on an organic basis. We had a slower-than-expected finish to the year and came in below our target. There are 3 factors that contributed to this, which I will discuss in increasing order of magnitude.

我現在想討論我們的淨新賬戶，並為我們的業績和我們對 2022 年的預期提供更多背景信息。在本季度，我們的指導考慮在有機基礎上產生約 1290 萬淨新活躍用戶。我們今年的業績低於預期，低於我們的目標。有 3 個因素促成了這一點，我將按數量級遞增的順序進行討論。

First, the more muted into the year for e-commerce growth driven by both supply chain challenges as well as pullback in spending by lower income consumers affected consumer growth. Second, in the back half of the quarter, we also changed course on some of our customer acquisition strategies, including incentive-led campaigns. And lastly and most impactful to the quarter, there were certain accounts that we disqualified or excluded from our net new active number. For context, we regularly assess our active account base to ensure the accounts are legitimate. This is particularly important during incentive campaigns that can be targets for bad actors attempting to reap the benefit from these offers without ever having an intent to be a legitimate customer on our platform.

首先，由於供應鏈挑戰以及低收入消費者支出的回落影響了消費者的增長，今年電子商務的增長更加緩慢。其次，在本季度的後半段，我們還改變了一些客戶獲取策略的路線，包括以激勵為主導的活動。最後，對本季度影響最大的是，我們取消了某些帳戶的資格或將其排除在我們的淨新活躍人數之外。就上下文而言，我們會定期評估我們的活躍賬戶群，以確保這些賬戶是合法的。這在激勵活動中尤為重要，這些活動可能成為試圖從這些優惠中獲利的不良行為者的目標，而他們卻無意成為我們平台上的合法客戶。

In the fourth quarter, in connection with the increased use of incentive campaigns throughout 2021, we identified 4.5 million accounts that we believe were illegitimately created. This number is immaterial to our overall base of 426 million customer accounts, but it affected our ability to achieve our guidance in the quarter.

在第四季度，由於整個 2021 年激勵活動的使用增加，我們發現了 450 萬個我們認為是非法創建的賬戶。這個數字對我們 4.26 億客戶賬戶的整體基礎並不重要，但它影響了我們在本季度實現指導的能力。

Now I want to shift to how we're thinking about net new active accounts in 2022, which is separate and apart from the factors impacting Q4. I'm going to start with the headline here and then provide some explanation.

現在我想轉向我們如何看待 2022 年的淨新活躍賬戶，這與影響第四季度的因素是分開的。我將從這裡的標題開始，然後提供一些解釋。

We are evolving our customer acquisition and engagement strategy, and we now expect to add 15 million to 20 million net new customer accounts this year. In addition, we no longer believe that the 750 million medium-term account aspiration we set last year is appropriate. I'll explain. Over the past 2 years, we've added more than 120 million customer accounts to our platform. This is, without question, remarkable growth and a complete step change from our trajectory prior to the pandemic.

我們正在發展我們的客戶獲取和參與戰略，我們現在預計今年將新增 1500 萬至 2000 萬個淨新客戶賬戶。此外，我們不再認為我們去年設定的7.5億中期賬戶目標是合適的。我會解釋的。在過去的 2 年中，我們的平台新增了超過 1.2 億個客戶賬戶。毫無疑問，這是顯著的增長，與我們在大流行之前的軌跡完全不同。

Our strategy for this has been twofold: continue to add net new actives and increase the engagement of our customer base. Last year, given the strong user growth, we pursued a strategy to retain those customers most likely to churn as well as attract many more new customers. We also leaned into incentivized customer acquisition tactics to a much greater extent than we ever have in our history.

我們的策略是雙重的：繼續增加新的活躍用戶並增加我們客戶群的參與度。去年，鑑於強勁的用戶增長，我們採取了一種策略來保留那些最有可能流失的客戶並吸引更多的新客戶。我們還比以往任何時候都更傾向於採用激勵性的客戶獲取策略。

At the same time, we've continued to focus on and invest in areas that deepen our engagement with our customers, particularly as we continue to add new products and services. To assess the effectiveness of these strategies, we look at the impact on customer behavior in the months that follow account creation, in essence, looking at the ROI or return on that investment spend from their expected contribution to TPV, revenue and operating income. These programs are very successful in generating account creation. But overall, these customers have lower engagement and a higher propensity to churn and have not matched our required level of return.

與此同時，我們繼續關注並投資於加深我們與客戶互動的領域，尤其是在我們不斷增加新產品和服務的情況下。為了評估這些策略的有效性，我們研究了在創建帳戶後的幾個月內對客戶行為的影響，實質上是從他們對 TPV、收入和營業收入的預期貢獻中觀察投資支出的投資回報率或回報率。這些程序在創建帳戶方面非常成功。但總體而言，這些客戶的參與度較低，流失率較高，並且沒有達到我們要求的回報水平。

This dynamic compounds over time as it requires increasing investment simply to keep minimally engaged users on our platform. Similar to a lot of businesses, we have a Pareto dynamic in ours where the vast majority of our volume comes from about 1/3 of our customer base. What this means is that unlike a subscription model where more users equates to more revenue, in our business, that relationship is much more attenuated.

這種動態會隨著時間的推移而復雜化，因為它需要增加投資來保持我們平台上參與度最低的用戶。與許多業務類似，我們的業務存在帕累托動態，我們的絕大多數業務量來自大約 1/3 的客戶群。這意味著，與更多用戶等同於更多收入的訂閱模式不同，在我們的業務中，這種關係要弱得多。

In assessing our marketing effectiveness, our engagement initiatives were considerably more successful than the incentive campaigns. We successfully moved customers up the engagement continuum into higher levels of engagement throughout the year. These strategies had strong returns and over time, will be important contributors to achieving our long-term revenue per user objectives.

在評估我們的營銷效果時，我們的參與計劃比激勵活動成功得多。我們全年成功地將客戶提升到更高的參與度。這些策略具有豐厚的回報，並且隨著時間的推移，將成為實現我們的長期每用戶收入目標的重要貢獻者。

Moving forward, we will continue to grow our users, but our focus will be on sustainable growth and driving engagement. To be very clear, this is a choice on our part. We could increase our spend and accelerate our net new active trajectory. However, we believe there are better ways to achieve our financial results.

展望未來，我們將繼續增加用戶，但我們的重點將放在可持續增長和推動參與上。很清楚，這是我們的選擇。我們可以增加支出並加速我們的淨新活躍軌跡。然而，我們相信有更好的方法來實現我們的財務業績。

We strongly believe that we are making the right decisions in redirecting our spend toward high-value customer acquisition and engagement channels. That said, over the next 12 months as these less engaged customers naturally roll off, it will materially reduce our quarterly net adds.

我們堅信，我們正在做出正確的決定，將我們的支出轉向高價值的客戶獲取和參與渠道。也就是說，在接下來的 12 個月裡，隨著這些參與度較低的客戶自然流失，這將大大減少我們的季度淨增加量。

Over the next couple of quarters, we plan to supplement the disclosure of net new actives with the addition of monthly active unique user and ARPU metrics. These metrics have a more meaningful correlation with our financial results, and we believe this incremental disclosure will allow you to better assess engagement on our platform and the degree to which our strategies are working.

在接下來的幾個季度中，我們計劃通過增加每月活躍的獨立用戶和 ARPU 指標來補充淨新活躍用戶的披露。這些指標與我們的財務業績具有更有意義的相關性，我們相信這種增量披露將使您能夠更好地評估我們平台上的參與度以及我們的戰略的有效程度。

I'd now like to discuss our financial guidance for 2022 in the context of our fourth quarter performance and the initial outlook we provided in November. Overall, revenue performance for the quarter came in about how we had expected. October was a strong month buoyed by some expected pull forward in holiday shopping. However, the back half of the quarter was weaker than we expected. Consistent with the reported sequential decline in seasonally adjusted retail sales and consumer spending in December, we experienced a softer end to the quarter.

我現在想根據我們第四季度的業績和我們在 11 月提供的初步展望來討論我們對 2022 年的財務指導。總體而言，本季度的收入表現符合我們的預期。 10 月是一個強勁的月份，受一些預期的假日購物推動的提振。然而，本季度後半段的表現弱於我們的預期。與報告的 12 月份經季節性調整的零售額和消費者支出的連續下降一致，我們在本季度末經歷了較為疲軟的情況。

The impact of Omicron and the effect of inflationary prices combined with lack of stimulus is having an impact on spending and by extension, our business. This impact is most pronounced on our lower income cohorts and has continued into the first quarter. The persistence of inflationary effects on personal consumption, labor shortages, supply chain issues and weaker consumer sentiment have led us to adopt a more cautious outlook.

Omicron 的影響和通脹價格的影響加上缺乏刺激措施正在對支出產生影響，進而影響到我們的業務。這種影響在我們的低收入人群中最為明顯，並一直持續到第一季度。通脹對個人消費的持續影響、勞動力短缺、供應鏈問題和疲軟的消費者情緒導致我們對前景採取更加謹慎的態度。

On last quarter's call, we preliminarily indicated high teens revenue growth for this year and said that if we had to pinpoint it, it would be around 18%. We have an incredible business, but we are not immune to the vagaries of the economy. Based on our more conservative stance today, we are starting the year with an expectation for revenue growth in the range of 15% to 17%. If these issues do not improve, it could cause us to be toward the lower end of that range. Should we see improvements relative to what we're seeing right now, it could result in being toward the upper end of that range. The environment continues to be difficult to predict, and this guidance provides our best estimate of the likely range of outcomes.

在上個季度的電話會議上，我們初步表示今年青少年收入增長很高，並表示如果我們必須確定它，它將在 18% 左右。我們擁有令人難以置信的業務，但我們也不能倖免於經濟的變幻莫測。根據我們今天較為保守的立場，我們今年開始時預計收入增長在 15% 至 17% 之間。如果這些問題沒有改善，可能會導致我們處於該範圍的下限。如果我們看到相對於我們現在看到的改進，它可能會導致接近該範圍的上限。環境仍然難以預測，本指南提供了我們對可能結果範圍的最佳估計。

In addition, as we discussed when we reported our third quarter results, our earnings growth in 2022 will be constrained by lapping the release of the credit reserves and a very low effective tax rate last year. In 2021, we released $312 million in credit reserves. This benefited operating margin by approximately 125 basis points and earnings per share by $0.21. Our effective tax rate was 10.5% last year, resulting from favorable discrete items, settlements and resolutions and benefited earnings per share by approximately $0.33 for the year. This is compared to estimated tax rate of 16% to 18% this year.

此外，正如我們在報告第三季度業績時所討論的那樣，我們在 2022 年的盈利增長將受到信貸儲備釋放和去年非常低的有效稅率的限制。 2021 年，我們釋放了 3.12 億美元的信貸儲備。這使營業利潤率提高了大約 125 個基點，每股收益提高了 0.21 美元。去年，我們的有效稅率為 10.5%，這得益於有利的離散項目、和解和決議，全年每股收益增加了約 0.33 美元。相比之下，今年的估計稅率為 16% 至 18%。

In the aggregate, these factors totaled $0.54 of EPS pressure year-over-year and represented a 12-point headwind to earnings growth this year. At the same time, continuing to invest in innovation in our go-to-market strategies is essential. Over the last 2 years, we've invested nearly $1 billion over and above our historical spend in areas like engineering, technology, marketing and customer support, all of which have generated tremendous returns for us. This year, we're focused on leveraging these investments while continuing to innovate at scale, strengthening our competitive positioning and advancing our leadership in digital payments.

總體而言，這些因素對每股收益的壓力總計為 0.54 美元，對今年的盈利增長構成了 12 個百分點的阻力。與此同時，在我們的上市戰略中繼續投資創新至關重要。在過去的 2 年中，我們在工程、技術、營銷和客戶支持等領域的歷史支出超過了近 10 億美元，所有這些都為我們帶來了巨大的回報。今年，我們專注於利用這些投資，同時繼續進行大規模創新，加強我們的競爭定位並提升我們在數字支付領域的領導地位。

Importantly, we expect to deliver solid leverage in our nontransaction-related expenses in 2022, which will be offset by volume-based expense growth predominantly related to our changes in our credit reserves. As a result, we expect operating margin to be in the range of 23% this year.

重要的是，我們預計將在 2022 年為我們的非交易相關費用提供堅實的槓桿，這將被主要與我們的信貸儲備變化相關的基於數量的費用增長所抵消。因此，我們預計今年的營業利潤率將在 23% 的範圍內。

And for the year, we expect to deliver $4.60 to $4.75 in non-GAAP earnings per share. In the first quarter, we're up against our hardest comps, as we grew revenue 31% and non-GAAP EPS 84% in Q1 last year. The first half of last year benefited from stimulus, stronger consumer confidence and a greater contribution from eBay.

今年，我們預計非公認會計準則每股收益為 4.60 美元至 4.75 美元。在第一季度，我們面臨著最艱難的競爭，因為去年第一季度我們的收入增長了 31%，非公認會計準則每股收益增長了 84%。去年上半年受益於刺激措施、消費者信心增強以及 eBay 的更大貢獻。

For the first quarter, we expect revenue to grow approximately 6% to $6.4 billion and non-GAAP EPS to be $0.87, which represents about a 30% decline from last year. As we progress through the year, our revenue growth will accelerate. We plan to deliver at least 20% revenue growth in the fourth quarter and exit the year at a top line growth rate in line or ahead of our medium-term target.

對於第一季度，我們預計收入將增長約 6% 至 64 億美元，非美國通用會計準則每股收益為 0.87 美元，比去年下降約 30%。隨著這一年的進展，我們的收入增長將加速。我們計劃在第四季度實現至少 20% 的收入增長，並以符合或超過我們的中期目標的頂線增長率退出今年。

In addition, while the trajectory of the economy has been difficult to predict and may give rise to short-term deviations in our expected performance, over the long term, nothing has changed as it relates to our confidence in our business and our expectations for performance beyond 2022. That said, when we laid out our medium-term outlook 1 year ago, underlying the assumptions was a more normalized steady-state expectation for overall economic activity and consumer demand.

此外，雖然經濟軌跡難以預測，並可能導致我們的預期業績出現短期偏差，但從長期來看，這與我們對業務的信心和對業績的預期有關，並沒有發生任何變化2022 年以後。也就是說，當我們在一年前製定中期展望時，假設的基礎是對整體經濟活動和消費者需求的更加正常化的穩態預期。

Our medium-term targets simply did not contemplate inflation at a 40-year high and supply chain issues not seen in my lifetime. As such, 2022 is now off to a slower start than we previously anticipated, and we are taking a more conservative stance on the year. We continue to believe that our revenue and earnings growth rates as well as our free cash flow objectives are achievable in the outyears of the period contemplated in our medium-term guidance.

我們的中期目標根本沒有考慮到 40 年來的最高通脹和我有生以來從未見過的供應鏈問題。因此，2022 年的開局比我們之前預期的要慢，我們對這一年採取了更為保守的立場。我們仍然相信，我們的收入和盈利增長率以及我們的自由現金流目標在我們的中期指導預期的時期內是可以實現的。

I want to close with these thoughts. We arguably just had one of the best years in our history when you examine our financial metrics, eclipsing $25 billion in revenue and generating almost $5.5 billion in free cash flow. By virtually any measure, we are a market leader in digital payments and will continue to grow faster than the market. There are very few companies of our size with our global reach, with our growth rates and cash generation.

我想以這些想法結束。當您檢查我們的財務指標時，可以說我們剛剛度過了歷史上最好的年份之一，超過了 250 億美元的收入並產生了近 55 億美元的自由現金流。以任何標準衡量，我們都是數字支付領域的市場領導者，並將繼續以快於市場的速度增長。很少有像我們這樣規模的公司擁有我們的全球影響力、我們的增長率和現金生成能力。

But we're in a dynamic industry and one that is constantly evolving, even more so because of COVID. And we are evolving with it, notably, our strategy as it pertains to engagement and net new actives. And even with the broad diversity of our business, we are not completely insulated from macroeconomic factors that, while may be impacting short-term performance, have nothing to do with the long-term intrinsic value of our business. We're going to continue to innovate, to grow, to increase our relevance to customers and focus on the things that we can control to continue to create value and be a global leader in digital payments.

但我們處於一個充滿活力的行業，而且這個行業在不斷發展，尤其是因為 COVID。我們正在隨之發展，尤其是我們的戰略，因為它與參與和淨新活動有關。即使我們的業務種類繁多，我們也並非完全不受宏觀經濟因素的影響，這些因素雖然可能會影響短期業績，但與我們業務的長期內在價值無關。我們將繼續創新、發展、增加與客戶的相關性，並專注於我們可以控制的事情，以繼續創造價值並成為數字支付領域的全球領導者。

Thank you. I'll turn it over to the operator for questions. Operator? Operator, we can...

謝謝你。我會把它交給接線員提問。操作員？接線員，我們可以...

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tien-Tsin Huang。

I wanted to drill in on the NNAs again if you don't mind. Just what drove the decision here to focus on engagement, focusing on quality instead of growth in NNA? Just trying to gauge your confidence on expanding ARPU as implied in the guidance both this year and I suppose in the midterm, now that the 750 million is off the table.

如果您不介意，我想再次深入了解 NNA。究竟是什麼促使這裡決定專注於參與，專注於質量而不是 NNA 的增長？只是想衡量你對擴大 ARPU 的信心，正如今年和我認為在中期的指導中所暗示的那樣，現在 7.5 億已經不在討論範圍內了。

Sure, Tien-Tsin. I'll start, and Dan might want to jump in. Look, I'll start with some context. We're a data-driven business. And if you just look at the last year, we did almost 20 billion transactions on our platform. And each of those transactions has hundreds of signals about that transaction. What was the size of the transaction? Was it -- what was the price point? Was it on a mobile device? Was it a repeat customer? Did it happen after a P2P transaction?

當然，天真。我會開始，丹可能想加入。看，我將從一些背景開始。我們是一家數據驅動的企業。如果你只看去年，我們在我們的平台上進行了近 200 億筆交易。這些交易中的每一個都有數百個關於該交易的信號。交易的規模是多少？是 - 價格點是多少？是在移動設備上嗎？是回頭客嗎？是在 P2P 交易之後發生的嗎？

And that informs our strategy. And we analyze that. It informs the strategy. We measure the results, and it creates this feedback loop that we then refine and pivot our strategies as well.

這為我們的戰略提供了依據。我們對此進行分析。它為策略提供信息。我們衡量結果，它會創建這個反饋循環，然後我們也會改進和調整我們的策略。

And what we've been able to see is that when we assess the strategy around trying to retain these very low engaged users versus attempting to move people up maybe from the medium engaged user to the high engaged user group, the latter is much more effective. It's much more effective for us to focus on engagement. And I think it's important to note, we are not a subscription model business where there's a direct relationship between our net new actives and the amount of revenue.

我們能夠看到的是，當我們評估圍繞嘗試保留這些非常低參與度的用戶而不是試圖將人們從中等參與度用戶提升到高參與度用戶組的策略時，後者更有效.對我們來說，專注於參與會更有效。而且我認為重要的是要注意，我們不是訂閱模式業務，我們的淨新活躍度與收入金額之間存在直接關係。

As I noted in my prepared remarks, there's a Pareto dynamic in our business where the vast majority of our volume comes from about 1/3 of our customers. And so we think that we need to pivot to evolve with the feedback that we've received and go achieve our medium-term guidance a different way than what we initially had laid out.

正如我在準備好的評論中指出的那樣，我們的業務存在帕累托動態，我們的絕大多數交易量來自大約 1/3 的客戶。因此，我們認為我們需要根據收到的反饋進行調整，並以與我們最初制定的方式不同的方式實現我們的中期指導。

But importantly, there's very encouraging signs that we see around engagement. And we've talked about some of those. But when we, for instance, add a -- provide a separate product or service for a customer and they're engaging with us in a different way, the ARPU for that customer increases appreciably. And so this is a pivot in our strategy. We think it's appropriate for our business, but it does not mean that we don't have confidence in our medium-term outlook as it relates to both revenue and earnings and free cash flow.

但重要的是，我們在參與方面看到了非常令人鼓舞的跡象。我們已經討論了其中的一些。但是，例如，當我們為客戶添加一個單獨的產品或服務並且他們以不同的方式與我們互動時，該客戶的 ARPU 會顯著增加。所以這是我們戰略的一個支點。我們認為這適合我們的業務，但這並不意味著我們對中期前景沒有信心，因為它與收入和收益以及自由現金流有關。

Maybe I'll just add a couple of things onto John's response. First of all, we did put on 122 million NNAs over the last 2 years, which is obviously substantially more than what our pre-pandemic levels were. And within that, there are always a number that are low engaged or have done one transaction and nothing else. And we drove some programs, incentive-based programs to see if they would reengage and then engage back with the base. And what we found is that they would do one transaction and then fall dormant again. And so our view is spending money on lower-value NNAs that are not engaged in the base becomes an increasingly expensive proposition over time and does nothing for our revenue growth.

也許我會在 John 的回復中添加一些內容。首先，我們在過去 2 年確實投入了 1.22 億個 NNA，這顯然比我們大流行前的水平要多得多。在這其中，總是有一些人參與度低或只完成了一項交易而沒有其他任何事情。我們推動了一些計劃，基於激勵的計劃，看看他們是否會重新參與，然後重新與基地互動。我們發現他們會進行一次交易，然後再次進入休眠狀態。因此，我們的觀點是，隨著時間的推移，花錢購買不參與基礎的低價值 NNA 會變得越來越昂貴，並且對我們的收入增長毫無幫助。

In fact, this year, when we're saying that we're going to do 15 million to 20 million, it's probably going to be about 20 million incremental one-and-done customers that roll off. That does nothing to our revenue. That is actually just people coming out of the base that were never engaged.

事實上，今年，當我們說我們要做 1500 萬到 2000 萬時，可能會增加大約 2000 萬的一次性客戶。這對我們的收入沒有任何影響。那實際上只是從基地出來的人從未參與過。

Over time, we feel like our NNAs are going to revert more back to prepandemic, which was in the 30 million to 40 million a year range. And could that change slightly? Could that be more as we go into more international penetration? We're seeing some very encouraging signs, as John said, with the digital wallet, where if somebody adds 1 more service to the digital wallet, their average revenue per active goes up by 25%. The average revenue per active of the digital wallet user is 2x that of a checkout only.

隨著時間的推移，我們覺得我們的 NNA 將更多地恢復到大流行前，這是每年 3000 萬到 4000 萬的範圍。這種情況會發生輕微變化嗎？隨著我們進入更多的國際滲透，這可能會更多嗎？正如約翰所說，我們在數字錢包中看到了一些非常令人鼓舞的跡象，如果有人在數字錢包中增加 1 項服務，他們的平均每活躍收入將增加 25%。數字錢包用戶每次活躍的平均收入是結賬時的 2 倍。

And so we really feel like we are going to invest our dollars in the best way to drive our revenues and our earnings and in the most efficient way. So we have great confidence in the medium-term outlook. And this shift is one that doesn't mean that we won't bring on tens of millions of NNAs every quarter. It just means that we're not going to throw marketing dollars at low-value subscribers coming in. And that, as John mentioned in his remarks, is a conscientious choice that we're making.

因此，我們真的覺得我們將以最好的方式投資我們的美元，以推動我們的收入和收益，並且以最有效的方式。因此，我們對中期前景充滿信心。這種轉變並不意味著我們不會每季度帶來數千萬的 NNA。這只是意味著我們不會向進來的低價值訂戶投入營銷資金。正如約翰在他的講話中提到的那樣，這是我們正在做出的一個認真的選擇。

Your next question comes from the line of Darrin Peller from Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Darrin Peller。

Can you just -- can you touch on the assumptions for your revenue guidance? I know your 15% to 17% is obviously lower than the prior 18% as of -- expected as of a few months ago. So maybe John or Dan, if you could just touch on the magnitude of ARPU expansion or consider and perhaps any color on the take rate or other factors? And just maybe any assumptions that might be conservative here. And also, John, just the cadence and trajectory, I know you talked about exiting the year at 20% plus growth rates. Obviously, it's great to hear. Just we need a good ramp as the year progresses. So anyway, thanks guys. Any color there would be helpful.

你能不能——你能談談收入指導的假設嗎？我知道你的 15% 到 17% 顯然低於之前的 18% - 幾個月前的預期。所以也許是 John 或 Dan，如果你能談談 ARPU 擴展的幅度或考慮一下，也許還有關於獲取率或其他因素的任何顏色？可能只是這裡可能保守的任何假設。而且，約翰，只是節奏和軌跡，我知道你談到了以 20% 以上的增長率退出這一年。顯然，很高興聽到。隨著時間的推移，我們需要一個良好的坡道。所以無論如何，謝謝大家。那裡的任何顏色都會有幫助。

Sure, Darrin. You packed a lot into that one question. I'll try to get most of it. So look, as I noted, we are adopting a more conservative stance on the year, and that's informed a lot by what we've seen over the last 8 to 10 weeks in our business. And I think underlying the outlook that we have for 2022 is e-commerce growth. The consensus estimates that we see are in the kind of the 10% range. And so that's sort of a fundamental assumption to start with.

當然，達林。你在這個問題中包含了很多內容。我會盡量得到它的大部分。因此，正如我所指出的，我們對這一年採取了更為保守的立場，這從我們在過去 8 到 10 週的業務中所看到的情況中得到了很多信息。我認為，我們對 2022 年的展望是電子商務的增長。我們看到的共識估計在 10% 的範圍內。所以這是一個基本的假設。

As I noted in my prepared remarks, we've seen weakness around spending in our lower income cohorts. And imagine, for us, it's -- the percentage of our user base is pretty similar to what you see just like in the U.S. overall, so it is a large percentage of our user base. And this was a cohort that certainly benefited from stimulus in prior periods earlier this year, and we're seeing the effects of inflationary pricing around that where there's a more elastic demand curve around that.

正如我在準備好的講話中指出的那樣，我們已經看到低收入人群的支出疲軟。想像一下，對我們來說，我們用戶群的百分比與你在美國整體看到的非常相似，所以它占我們用戶群的很大一部分。這是一個肯定從今年早些時候的刺激措施中受益的群體，我們看到通脹定價的影響圍繞著需求曲線更具彈性的地方。

Certainly, with higher income cohorts, you've got a more inelastic demand curve, and that's a lower percentage of our base. But generally speaking, I don't think people are going out and buying boats with Venmo. And maybe they are, but this has had an impact on our business.

當然，隨著收入較高的人群，您的需求曲線更加缺乏彈性，這在我們的基數中所佔的百分比較低。但總的來說，我不認為人們會和 Venmo 一起出去買船。也許他們是，但這對我們的業務產生了影響。

And so when we provide that range of revenue guidance for the year, if this persists and doesn't improve, then it's going to be at the lower end of that range. If it improves appreciably, then it's the upper end of that range. And so if you take the midpoint, we do have some expectation that some of the supply chain issues and inflationary pressures that we've seen right now improve in the back half of the year.

因此，當我們提供該年度的收入指導範圍時，如果這種情況持續存在並且沒有改善，那麼它將處於該範圍的下限。如果它有明顯改善，那麼它就是該範圍的上限。因此，如果你取中點，我們確實有一些預期，我們現在看到的一些供應鏈問題和通脹壓力在今年下半年有所改善。

With respect to cadence, the first half of the year clearly is the most difficult from a year-over-year comp perspective and most notably because of the impact that eBay has on our business. Dan talked about, in his prepared remarks, sort of the impact that it has at $600 million in the first quarter. As we get -- I'm sorry, first half. I'm sorry, first half. As we get past that and also at the same time, begin to see some of the benefit from some of our new product initiatives rollouts in the year, the second half will be much, much better. And look, we want as much as anyone to demonstrate to all of you the power of our business, and so we're very much looking forward to the back half of the year and an exit rate that is much more in line with our medium-term guidance.

就節奏而言，從同比的角度來看，今年上半年顯然是最困難的，最明顯的是因為 eBay 對我們業務的影響。丹在他準備好的講話中談到了它在第一季度產生的 6 億美元的影響。正如我們得到的 - 對不起，上半場。對不起，上半場。隨著我們克服這一點，同時，開始看到我們在今年推出的一些新產品計劃帶來的一些好處，下半年會好得多。看，我們希望像任何人一樣向你們所有人展示我們業務的力量，所以我們非常期待今年下半年以及更符合我們媒體的退出率長期指導。

Darrin, I think also if you uncouple the headline revenue numbers from our revenue numbers ex eBay and look at it whether it be in the fourth quarter 22% revenue growth ex eBay, growing over 27% revenue growth ex eBay from a year ago and you look at that 2-year CAGR, it's about 25% CAGR. You look in the first quarter, which is our low quarter of the year. And ex eBay, we're growing revenues 13% on top of 38% revenue growth ex eBay a year ago. Add the 2 up, you've got a 2-year CAGR of about 25% again.

達林，我還認為，如果你將標題收入數字與我們在 eBay 前的收入數字分開，看看它是否是第四季度 eBay 前 22% 的收入增長，eBay 前一年的收入增長超過 27%，而你看看那個 2 年的複合年增長率，大約是 25% 的複合年增長率。你看看第一季度，這是我們今年的低季度。在 eBay 之前，我們的收入增長了 13%，而一年前在 eBay 之前的收入增長了 38%。將 2 加起來，您的 2 年復合年增長率再次約為 25%。

So what I was saying in my remarks is that our business ex eBay is remarkably consistent and our 2-year CAGRs are also remarkably consistent. And so we're lapping eBay, which goes away by the end of June as we go into the back half of the year. And we're also lapping our 2 strongest quarters of growth in the first and second quarter.

所以我在講話中所說的是，我們在 eBay 前的業務非常一致，我們的 2 年復合年增長率也非常一致。因此，我們正在研究 eBay，隨著我們進入下半年，eBay 將在 6 月底消失。我們還在第一季度和第二季度實現了兩個最強勁的增長季度。

And just as we look at the math of that and then on top of that, obviously, all the initiatives that we're doing, we see growth rates exceeding 20% plus as we exit the year. And I think if you look behind the headline numbers, you can see those numbers have maintained their strength quarter-over-quarter.

就像我們研究數學一樣，最重要的是，顯然，我們正在做的所有舉措，我們看到今年結束時的增長率超過 20%。而且我認為，如果您查看標題數字的背後，您會發現這些數字環比保持強勁。

Your next question comes from the line of Bryan Keane from Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Bryan Keane。

Want to ask about the take rate. It did stop, I think, at 2-year decline. And just thinking about it going forward with Venmo monetization, especially Pay with Venmo being a factor, thinking about pricing, if there's any other benefits domestically or internationally there, and then mix, P2P versus branded and Braintree. It looks like from the guide the take rate, the moderation of take rate going down also alleviates there. So just thinking about those factors, John, maybe you could help us with that.

想問一下錄取率。我認為它確實停止了 2 年的下降。只是考慮一下 Venmo 貨幣化的未來，特別是 Venmo 是一個因素的支付，考慮定價，如果在國內或國際上有任何其他好處，然後混合，P2P 與品牌和 Braintree。從引導上看，take rate 下降的緩和也在那裡緩解。所以想想這些因素，約翰，也許你可以幫助我們。

Sure. Well, we were pleased to see the sequential increase in take rate in the quarter versus the third quarter. And I do think it sort of underscores some of the strength in our business, particularly around pricing and also, as Dan noted, Venmo. Quite excited to see that Venmo, having achieved it's roughly $900 million in revenue last year, that it's starting to be a contributor to take rate.

當然。好吧，我們很高興看到本季度與第三季度相比，採用率連續上升。而且我確實認為這在某種程度上突顯了我們業務的一些優勢，尤其是在定價方面，而且正如 Dan 指出的那樣，Venmo。很高興看到 Venmo 去年實現了大約 9 億美元的收入，它開始成為收視率的貢獻者。

And we've been saying this for some time. We're glad to actually show the results. I don't think it's fair to assume, though, that -- Bryan, that every quarter, we're going to see a sequential increase going forward, but it's a step in the right direction.

我們已經說了一段時間了。我們很高興實際展示結果。不過，我認為不公平地假設——布萊恩，每個季度，我們都會看到未來的連續增長，但這是朝著正確方向邁出的一步。

I think maybe a better way to think about take rate for this year is really looking at the factors that drove the year-over-year change and of course, year-over-year take rate decline. But if you look at that decline of 17 basis points, roughly half of that was related to eBay. And certainly, that goes away as we get into the back half of the year.

我認為考慮今年採取率的更好方法可能是真正關注推動同比變化的因素，當然還有同比下降的因素。但如果你看一下這 17 個基點的下降，其中大約一半與 eBay 有關。當然，隨著我們進入下半年，這種情況就會消失。

The other next largest contributor, which was about 5 -- 4 or 5 basis points related to that decline, was a decrease in foreign exchange fees that we monetize on cross-border transactions. And so that sometimes goes up. So if you look at like the core business, there's actually very small change in what's happening with take rate. And so quite pleased about that, and I think it really -- like when you also overlay on that the pricing change that we made that contributed to that, I think it underscores the value proposition and how that resonates with our customer base. We're seeing users becoming more loyal to brand ecosystems like ours. And look, when side by side, given the choice to choose PayPal or other wallets, more than 50% of the time, people are choosing PayPal.

與該下降有關的另一個下一個最大貢獻者是大約 5、4 或 5 個基點，是我們在跨境交易中貨幣化的外匯費用減少。所以有時會上升。因此，如果您從核心業務來看，實際上發生率的變化非常小。對此非常高興，我認為這真的 - 就像當你還覆蓋我們所做的定價變化時，我認為它強調了價值主張以及它如何與我們的客戶群產生共鳴。我們看到用戶對像我們這樣的品牌生態系統越來越忠誠。並且看，當並排選擇 PayPal 或其他錢包時，超過 50% 的時間，人們會選擇 PayPal。

And so this shows the strength of our business, the ubiquity, the network effect of it, and that's translating into the effect on our take rate. And frankly, we're just pleased to see that we don't have some of the noise that's been persisting in that comparison over the last couple of years, and we'll get into much cleaner compares in the back half of next year.

所以這顯示了我們業務的實力，無處不在，它的網絡效應，這轉化為對我們接受率的影響。坦率地說，我們很高興看到我們沒有在過去幾年的比較中一直存在一些噪音，我們將在明年下半年進行更清晰的比較。

Yes. And I think I'll just expand on one part of John's remarks. I mean if you look at Venmo exiting the year with $250 million of revenues growing at 80% plus, I mean as we think about Venmo revenues this year, we can see that our revenue is growing another 50% plus as their average revenue per active continues to grow.

是的。我想我將僅擴展 John 發言的一部分。我的意思是，如果你看看 Venmo 以 2.5 億美元的收入以 80% 以上的速度退出這一年，我的意思是，當我們考慮今年 Venmo 的收入時，我們可以看到我們的收入正在增長 50% 以上，因為他們的每個活躍用戶的平均收入繼續增長。

And so I think when we look at a bunch of things that before were putting pressure on take rate and now we're seeing the opposite occur. I think that obviously bodes well at least on the pressure on take rate, if not, the stabilization of it.

所以我認為，當我們看到以前對採取率施加壓力的一堆事情時，現在我們看到相反的情況發生了。我認為這顯然是好兆頭，至少對採取率的壓力，如果不是，它的穩定。

Your next question comes from the line of Lisa Ellis from MoffettNathanson.

您的下一個問題來自 MoffettNathanson 的 Lisa Ellis。

All right. Well, it's been a couple of tough quarters here coming out of the pandemic. You've highlighted, of course, in detail the shift from NNA growth to ARPU growth, but beyond that shift, just taking a step back, what are some of the other strategic and operational adjustments you've been making now over -- you are making in order to adjust to this new world and reaccelerate growth as you look out later into 2022?

好的。好吧，從大流行中走出來的幾個季度都很艱難。當然，您已經詳細強調了從 NNA 增長到 ARPU 增長的轉變，但除了這種轉變，退後一步，您現在正在進行的其他一些戰略和運營調整是什麼——您為了適應這個新世界並在您展望 2022 年之後重新加速增長，您正在做些什麼？

Lisa, there's sort of a little bit of a conflation between end of pandemic and us entering into the eye of the eBay transition, which happened concurrently. So coming out of that, you're lapping very strong growth quarters for us, and we're going into eBay and the pandemic as beginning to end. People are conflating a lot of that, which is why I was trying to point out that the core business ex eBay has been pretty consistent as we've looked over the last several quarters. And clearly, the lapping is going to have an impact, although a lessening impact in the first half of this year until we move into the back half.

麗莎，大流行的結束和我們進入 eBay 轉型的視野之間有點混為一談，這同時發生了。因此，從這一點中走出來，你為我們帶來了非常強勁的增長季度，我們將進入 eBay 和大流行作為開始到結束。人們把很多東西混為一談，這就是為什麼我試圖指出過去幾個季度以來，eBay 前的核心業務一直非常一致。顯然，研磨會產生影響，儘管在今年上半年影響會減弱，直到我們進入後半部分。

I would say that the other big thing, Lisa, that we've talked about quite a number of times is sort of the ascendancy of digital wallets, of financial super apps in the -- in checkout. There have been numerous studies. JPM just put out one payment -- just put one out, where you're seeing digital wallets take increasing share at checkout.

我想說的另一件大事，麗莎，我們已經談過很多次了，那就是數字錢包和金融超級應用在結賬時的優勢。已經進行了許多研究。 JPM 剛剛支付了一筆款項——只需支付一筆款項，您就會看到數字錢包在結賬時的份額越來越大。

And clearly, there is no other digital wallet close to us in terms of scale, and there's overwhelming consumer preference for PayPal in those wallets. And our super app is showing extraordinarily promising early results. Now we only rolled that out fully in the middle of October across all of iOS and Android, so we're 3 or 4 months into it. But what are we seeing? We're seeing double the average revenue per active account when somebody uses our app versus just checkout. When somebody uses the app their propensity to churn is 25% less.

顯然，就規模而言，沒有其他數字錢包能與我們相提並論，而且在這些錢包中，消費者對 PayPal 的偏好是壓倒性的。我們的超級應用程序顯示出非常有希望的早期結果。現在，我們只是在 10 月中旬在所有 iOS 和 Android 上完全推出了它，所以我們需要 3 或 4 個月的時間。但是我們看到了什麼？當有人使用我們的應用程序時，我們看到每個活躍帳戶的平均收入是結帳時的兩倍。當有人使用該應用程序時，他們的流失傾向會降低 25%。

The discoverability and first-time users of people coming into the app, crypto is up 40%. In-app donations are up 300%. People coming into our shopping tab is up 35%. People going from the shopping tab to merchants to shop is up over 700%. And so we are really encouraged by what we are seeing on the app.

進入該應用程序的人的可發現性和首次用戶增加了 40%。應用內捐款增加了 300%。進入我們購物標籤的人增加了 35%。從購物標籤到商家購物的人數增加了 700% 以上。所以我們對我們在應用程序上看到的內容感到非常鼓舞。

And by the way, the app, only about 50% of our base has the app right now. So it still has quite a bit of ways to go to penetrate and we want to spend marketing dollars on moving people into that app. And inside the app, like things like bill pay, like you and I have talked about many times, we're seeing a 200% increase in first-time users there. We want to make sure that people can discover the services because every time they add another service, it grows ARPA by 25%.

順便說一句，該應用程序，目前我們只有大約 50% 的用戶擁有該應用程序。所以它仍然有很多方法可以滲透，我們希望將營銷資金用於將人們轉移到該應用程序中。在應用程序內部，就像你和我多次討論過的賬單支付一樣，我們看到那裡的首次用戶增加了 200%。我們希望確保人們能夠發現這些服務，因為每次他們添加另一個服務時，ARPA 都會增加 25%。

And so we are going to focus heavily on digital wallet. We're going to continue to focus on checkout because that -- checkout is the bread and butter of PayPal, and we have a best-in-class experience, and we feel there are numerous ways we continue to improve that. We're going to increase buy now, pay later capabilities which is on a tremendous roll, and also move into a focused set of international markets from leveraging the license extension we just got in China for an incremental 5 years, leveraging off the Paidy acquisition in Japan and really looking at markets like Mexico and potentially Brazil to accelerate. So a number of things that we're very focused on.

因此，我們將重點關注數字錢包。我們將繼續專注於結賬，因為結賬是 PayPal 的生計，我們擁有一流的體驗，我們認為有很多方法可以繼續改進。我們將增加現在購買，支付以後的能力，這是一個巨大的滾動，並通過利用我們剛剛在中國獲得的許可證延期 5 年，利用對 Paidy 的收購，進入一組集中的國際市場在日本，並真正關注墨西哥和巴西等市場的加速發展。因此，我們非常關注許多事情。

And the final thing that I'd say that John mentioned in his script and I did in mine as well is that we think that there is the opportunity for significant increased operating leverage, utilizing our scale and having our OpEx growth move back more towards normalized growth that we had in prepandemic, which we think will help expand margins as we go forward. And that scale is clearly going to enable us to leverage improved unit economics going forward. And so those are kind of the operational changes where we're focused and why we have such confidence that, as we go through the year, you'll see acceleration of revenues and earnings improving at 20%.

我想說的最後一件事，約翰在他的劇本中提到，我也在我的劇本中提到，我們認為有機會顯著增加運營槓桿，利用我們的規模，讓我們的運營支出增長更回歸正常化我們在大流行前的增長，我們認為這將有助於在我們前進的過程中擴大利潤率。而這種規模顯然將使我們能夠利用改進的單位經濟向前發展。因此，這些是我們關注的運營變化，也是為什麼我們有信心在這一年中看到收入和收益加速增長 20% 的原因。

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Kupferberg from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Jason Kupferberg。

Appreciate it. So I know you said that you're positioned to achieve the medium-term revenue and EPS targets over the last 3 years of the 5-year guidance period. So are we to assume that you expect to be below those levels when we look at the 5-year CAGR basis in its entirety? And I guess, if not, if you still think you can achieve these targets on a 5-year basis, what would really drive the necessary increase in engagement?

欣賞它。所以我知道你說過你有能力在 5 年指導期的最後 3 年實現中期收入和每股收益目標。那麼，當我們全面查看 5 年 CAGR 基礎時，我們是否假設您期望低於這些水平？而且我想，如果不是，如果您仍然認為您可以在 5 年的基礎上實現這些目標，那麼真正推動參與度必要增加的因素是什麼？

Sure, Jason. It's good to speak with you. I appreciate the clarifying question. So look, when you -- any time you put out a longer-range plan over multiple years, it's rarer than anyone ever assumes a business cycle in there. And not that we're exactly going through a business cycle, but we're certainly seeing some macroeconomic pressures on our business that were not contemplated at the time that we did our guidance.

當然，傑森。很高興和你說話。我很欣賞這個澄清的問題。所以看，當你 - 任何時候你提出一個多年的長期計劃時，它比任何人都認為的商業周期要罕見。並不是說我們正在經歷一個商業周期，但我們確實看到我們的業務面臨一些宏觀經濟壓力，這些壓力在我們進行指導時沒有考慮到。

So you are correct in that we have confidence that we can achieve those growth rates of 20% revenue and 22% earnings growth in the outyears beyond 2022. But because we have not done that in the first 2 years of that, you're correct, mathematically, that CAGR is much more -- that compounded annual growth rate is much more challenging.

所以你是對的，因為我們有信心在 2022 年之後的幾年內實現 20% 的收入和 22% 的收入增長。但是因為我們在前兩年沒有做到這一點，所以你是對的，從數學上講，複合年增長率要高得多——複合年增長率更具挑戰性。

But when you step back and you think about the core earnings power of the business, the core growth opportunities that we have, look, e-commerce is still going to grow. We're still seeing a pull forward around that. We're still seeing the increase in digital payments, the primacy of the digital wallet. All of these things benefit us and I would say even benefit us even more because of the scale and brand that we have.

但是當你退後一步，想想業務的核心盈利能力，我們擁有的核心增長機會，看起來，電子商務仍然會增長。我們仍然看到這方面的推動力。我們仍然看到數字支付的增長，數字錢包的首要地位。所有這些都使我們受益，我想說，由於我們擁有的規模和品牌，我們甚至會受益更多。

And so we shouldn't conflate like changes in real disposable income of people with digitization trends, which benefit our business. I would argue that our competitive positioning has never been stronger, and so we're very focused in 2023, '24 and '25 of demonstrating that we can achieve those growth rates.

因此，我們不應將人們實際可支配收入的變化與數字化趨勢混為一談，這有利於我們的業務。我認為我們的競爭定位從未如此強大，因此我們非常專注於 2023 年、24 年和 25 年，以證明我們可以實現這些增長率。

Your next question comes from the line of David Togut from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

This was touched on a bit earlier, but given the 2022 headwinds you've discussed, what are some of the structural changes you see sustaining as we enter 2023? For example, you've called out 20% plus expected revenue growth as you exit 2022. And then related to that, with the pivot to increase focus on growing engagement, what's the time line of new applications we should watch for in the expansion of the PayPal super apps?

這一點之前已經提到過，但是鑑於您已經討論過 2022 年的逆風，您認為在我們進入 2023 年時會發生哪些結構性變化？例如，您在 2022 年退出時提出了 20% 以上的預期收入增長。然後與此相關，隨著重點增加對不斷增長的參與度的關注，我們應該在擴展PayPal 超級應用程序？

Where to start? Well, maybe I'll start with the first part of your question, David, on some of the structural changes, and we covered this a little bit in a couple of questions. But we continue to see a movement, particularly in checkout, or gravitation towards digital wallets versus other ways to pay.

從哪兒開始？好吧，也許我會從你問題的第一部分開始，大衛，關於一些結構性變化，我們在幾個問題中對此進行了一些討論。但我們繼續看到一種趨勢，特別是在結賬方面，或者是數字錢包相對於其他支付方式的吸引力。

And in fact, in some studies, it would suggest that PayPal is second only to debit in front of credit in terms of preference from consumers. And as I noted earlier, like you're beginning to see more and more preference for brand ecosystems. And we think that's only going to become more relevant as we go forward, which is part and parcel to why we're emphasizing our digital wallet strategy so much because when someone is using our app, is using our digital wallet, they're much more likely to be engaged with us in other parts of our ecosystem, including off-line transactions.

事實上，在一些研究中，這表明 PayPal 在消費者偏好方面僅次於信用卡借記。正如我之前提到的，就像你開始看到越來越多的品牌生態系統偏好一樣。我們認為，隨著我們的發展，這只會變得更加相關，這也是我們如此強調我們的數字錢包戰略的重要原因，因為當有人使用我們的應用程序，正在使用我們的數字錢包時，他們非常重要更有可能在我們生態系統的其他部分與我們互動，包括線下交易。

And so all of these things, I think, are structural changes related to the pandemic that getting the timing precisely correct on when we reach that pivot or that step function change is sometimes difficult. But I don't think anyone would argue that we are continuing down that trend and it's only been accelerated during the pandemic.

因此，我認為所有這些事情都是與大流行相關的結構性變化，當我們到達那個支點或那個階躍函數變化時，要準確地把握時機有時是很困難的。但我認為沒有人會爭辯說我們正在繼續這種趨勢，而且這種趨勢只是在大流行期間加速了。

Just to add to it a couple of things. One, obviously, we feel like supply chain issues will work their way through. This actually is impacting quite profitable revenue streams for us like cross-border.

只是添加一些東西。一，顯然，我們覺得供應鏈問題會解決。這實際上影響了我們的盈利收入流，比如跨境。

When we look at export out of China, that's double-digit negative, and it's typically double-digit positive for us. And that will turn its way around going forward. So we know some of these things are temporal and will change over time, but we wanted to be measured in the guidance that we put out for this year.

當我們看中國的出口時，這是兩位數的負數，對我們來說通常是兩位數的正數。這將在未來扭轉局面。所以我們知道其中一些事情是暫時的，並且會隨著時間的推移而改變，但我們希望在我們今年發布的指導中得到衡量。

And on the digital wallet, we put out a ton of new functionality out there. We are -- just started to ramp the high-yield savings product that we're introducing with Synchrony. That started at the end of January. We're aiming to be 100% ramped with that by the end of Q1, early Q2. We have quite a number of people on the waiting list for that. And we want to really spend a lot of our efforts this year enhancing each of those various products and services to create best-in-class value propositions around every single one of them.

在數字錢包上，我們推出了大量新功能。我們剛剛開始推出我們通過 Synchrony 推出的高收益儲蓄產品。那是從一月底開始的。我們的目標是在第一季度末第二季度初實現 100% 的增長。我們有很多人在等待名單上。今年我們真的想花很多精力來增強這些不同的產品和服務，以圍繞它們中的每一個創造一流的價值主張。

I think we have a really comprehensive, good first step of our digital wallet. I think each of these areas can be linked better to each other. The value propositions can improve. We'll add incremental features over time, but really, our opportunity this year is expand our app penetration because we see what happens when that occurs. And then when people are in the app, introduce them to more and more services because that has a tremendous amount of leverage in the business model.

我認為我們的數字錢包邁出了非常全面、良好的第一步。我認為這些領域中的每一個都可以更好地相互聯繫。價值主張可以改進。隨著時間的推移，我們將添加增量功能，但實際上，我們今年的機會是擴大我們的應用程序滲透率，因為我們會看到發生這種情況時會發生什麼。然後當人們在應用程序中時，向他們介紹越來越多的服務，因為這在商業模式中具有巨大的影響力。

And we have time for one last question from Timothy Chiodo from Credit Suisse.

我們有時間回答瑞士信貸的 Timothy Chiodo 的最後一個問題。

When we think about your revenue growth, we like to think about what Venmo could contribute, and then we like to think about what the onus is on sort of the rest of the business, if you will. I know you mentioned that Venmo did roughly $250 million in Q4, and I think it was around that $900 million for the full year.

當我們考慮您的收入增長時，我們喜歡考慮 Venmo 可以做出什麼貢獻，然後我們喜歡考慮其他業務的責任，如果您願意的話。我知道你提到 Venmo 在第四季度的收入約為 2.5 億美元，我認為全年約為 9 億美元。

Dan, you alluded to this earlier in terms of growth for next year. What could you tell us in terms of what is implied for next year's or for fiscal 2022 in terms of Venmo growth and revenue monetization and how that might look into 2023 and beyond as well?

丹，你早些時候在明年的增長方面提到了這一點。關於明年或 2022 財年在 Venmo 增長和收入貨幣化方面的隱含意義，以及 2023 年及以後的情況，您能告訴我們什麼？

Yes. I think this year, we're contemplating 50% plus revenue growth for Venmo on top of what it did this year. Obviously, they're continuing to add incremental services. Eventually, you're going to see Venmo have a lot of the capabilities that the PayPal super app has because that consumer base loves Venmo, wants to live more and more of their financial life on the app.

是的。我認為今年，我們正在考慮 Venmo 在今年的基礎上實現 50% 以上的收入增長。顯然，他們正在繼續添加增量服務。最終，您將看到 Venmo 擁有 PayPal 超級應用程序所具有的許多功能，因為消費者群喜歡 Venmo，希望在該應用程序上過上越來越多的財務生活。

We have over 83 million people using Venmo right now in the United States. Think about that as a percentage of the population. Yes, it's 1 like out of every 3.5 people in the U.S. is using Venmo right now. We obviously have plans to take that overseas. We're going to be rolling out Venmo with Amazon, with Starbucks, with DoorDash. I mean there are quite a number of very high-profile merchants that are going to be implementing pay with Venmo on top of all of the things that they did last year.

我們現在在美國有超過 8300 萬人在使用 Venmo。將其視為人口的百分比。是的，現在美國每 3.5 個人中就有 1 個人在使用 Venmo。我們顯然有計劃將其帶到海外。我們將與亞馬遜、星巴克和 DoorDash 一起推出 Venmo。我的意思是，除了去年所做的所有事情之外，還有很多非常知名的商家將使用 Venmo 進行支付。

And so we've got a lot of promise yet to go, as I mentioned. I feel like we're in the beginning stages of the monetization progress. The team is executing extremely well against both their objectives but really importantly, against their road map as well.

因此，正如我所提到的，我們還有很多承諾要做。我覺得我們正處於貨幣化進程的開始階段。團隊在兩個目標上都執行得非常好，但更重要的是，在他們的路線圖上也是如此。

And so I think you just continue to see Venmo grow. And by the way, when it grows, obviously, its ARPU grows and as I mentioned in my remarks, it starts to add to our ability to grow take rates. Certainly, that adds to an upward pressure on take rate as opposed to a downward one.

所以我認為你會繼續看到 Venmo 成長。順便說一句，當它增長時，很明顯，它的 ARPU 也會增長，正如我在評論中提到的，它開始增加我們提高獲取率的能力。當然，這增加了對採取率的上行壓力，而不是下行壓力。

I think that was our final question. I do want to thank everybody for all of your great questions. We really appreciate it. Realize there's a lot of information that we put out today. We want to thank you for your time as well. And we look forward to speaking with all of you soon, meeting with you in person. And again, thank you for your time. Take care, and bye-bye.

我認為這是我們的最後一個問題。我要感謝大家提出的所有重要問題。我們真的很感激。意識到我們今天發布了很多信息。我們也要感謝您的寶貴時間。我們期待很快與你們所有人交談，親自與你們會面。再次感謝您的寶貴時間。保重，再見。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。