PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Sarah, and I will be your conference operator for today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to PayPal Holdings earnings conference call for the first quarter 2023. (Operator Instructions)

下午好。我叫莎拉，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。此時，我想歡迎大家參加 PayPal Holdings 2023 年第一季度的收益電話會議。（操作員說明）

I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Ms. Gabrielle Rabinovitch, Senior Vice President and Acting CFO. Please go ahead.

現在我想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，高級副總裁兼代理首席財務官 Gabrielle Rabinovitch 女士。請繼續。

Thank you, Sarah. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us. Welcome to PayPal's earnings conference call for the first quarter of 2023. Joining me today on the call is Dan Schulman, our President and CEO. We're providing a slide presentation to accompany our commentary. This conference call is also being webcast, and both the presentation and call are available on our Investor Relations website.

謝謝你，莎拉。下午好，感謝您加入我們。歡迎參加 PayPal 2023 年第一季度的收益電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Dan Schulman。我們將提供幻燈片演示以配合我們的評論。此電話會議也進行了網絡直播，演示文稿和電話會議均可在我們的投資者關係網站上獲得。

In discussing our company's performance, we'll refer to some non-GAAP measures. You can find the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the presentation accompanying this conference call.

在討論我們公司的業績時，我們將參考一些非 GAAP 指標。您可以在本次電話會議隨附的演示文稿中找到這些非 GAAP 措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的調節。

We will make forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations, forecasts and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. These statements include our guidance for the second quarter and full year 2023, our planning assumptions for 2023 and our comments related to anticipated foreign exchange rates, operating margins and share repurchase activity. Our actual results may differ materially from these statements. You can find more information about risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our results in the most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC and available on our Investor Relations website. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. All information in this presentation is as of today's date, May 8, 2023. We expressly disclaim any obligation to update this information.

我們將根據我們當前的預期、預測和假設做出前瞻性陳述，並涉及風險和不確定性。這些聲明包括我們對 2023 年第二季度和全年的指引、我們對 2023 年的規劃假設以及我們對預期匯率、營業利潤率和股票回購活動的評論。我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述存在重大差異。您可以在向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 10-K 表格年度報告和 10-Q 表格季度報告中找到有關可能影響我們結果的風險、不確定性和其他因素的更多信息，這些信息可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。您不應過分依賴任何前瞻性陳述。本演示文稿中的所有信息截至今天，即 2023 年 5 月 8 日。我們明確表示不承擔任何更新此信息的義務。

With that, let me turn the call over to Dan.

有了這個，讓我把電話轉給丹。

Thanks, Gabs, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. We had a good start to the year with stronger-than-expected growth across our key financial metrics. And I'm particularly pleased to see the TPV from our branded checkout meaningfully accelerate to 6.5% growth FXN, up 200 basis points from Q4, while our unbranded TPV growth also accelerated from Q4 to post year-over-year growth of 30% FXN.

謝謝 Gabs，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們今年開局良好，主要財務指標的增長強於預期。我特別高興地看到，我們品牌結帳的 TPV 明顯加速至 6.5% FXN 增長，比第四季度增長 200 個基點，而我們的非品牌 TPV 增長也從第四季度加速到 30% FXN 的同比增長.

Even with the strong start, there remain many challenging issues to navigate as we look forward. Both the macroeconomic and geopolitical environments are complex and difficult to predict. In these times, the strong message I'm giving the PayPal team is to focus on the things we can control.

儘管開局良好，但在我們期待的過程中，仍有許多具有挑戰性的問題需要解決。宏觀經濟和地緣政治環境複雜且難以預測。在這些時候，我要給 PayPal 團隊的強烈信息是專注於我們可以控制的事情。

We know that job #1 is to invest and innovate to improve our value proposition to our merchants and consumers. Since we honed our strategic priorities last year, we have consistently executed and delivered against our road map. And this work is beginning to reflect in our results.

我們知道，工作#1 是投資和創新，以改善我們對商家和消費者的價值主張。自從我們去年確定戰略重點以來，我們始終如一地執行和交付我們的路線圖。這項工作開始反映在我們的結果中。

Of course, we still have room to improve in multiple areas, but we are making large strides in upgrading our merchant and consumer experiences, which are both significantly strengthened from a year ago. We are focused on executing in the most cost-effective and efficient way possible.

當然，我們在多個領域仍有改進的空間，但我們在升級商家和消費者體驗方面取得了長足進步，這兩個方面都比一年前有了顯著加強。我們專注於以最具成本效益和最有效的方式執行。

As you can tell from our nontransaction-related OpEx performance, we are more than delivering against our plan. As encouraging as these early results are, I would point out that we are just at the beginning as a multiyear efficiency journey. For several years, we've been at the forefront of advanced forms of machine learning and AI to combat fraud and to implement our sophisticated risk management programs. With the new advances of generative AI, we will also be able to accelerate our productivity initiatives. We expect AI will enable us to meaningfully lower our costs for years to come.

正如您從我們與非交易相關的運營支出表現中可以看出的那樣，我們不僅僅是按照我們的計劃交付。儘管這些早期結果令人鼓舞，但我要指出的是，我們的多年效率之旅才剛剛開始。多年來，我們一直處於先進形式的機器學習和人工智能的前沿，以打擊欺詐和實施我們複雜的風險管理計劃。隨著生成式 AI 的新進展，我們也將能夠加快我們的生產力計劃。我們預計人工智能將使我們能夠在未來幾年顯著降低成本。

Furthermore, we believe that AI, combined with our unique scale and sets of data, will drive not only efficiencies, but will also drive a differentiated and unique set of value propositions for our merchants and consumers. So despite the fact that today's macro environment is difficult to forecast, we believe we are well positioned to deliver a strong year and enter next year poised to reap additional revenue streams from the investments we are making in our products while continuing to drive efficiencies and reduce our overall cost structure.

此外，我們相信人工智能與我們獨特的規模和數據集相結合，不僅會提高效率，還會為我們的商家和消費者帶來一套差異化和獨特的價值主張。因此，儘管今天的宏觀環境難以預測，但我們相信我們已準備好迎接強勁的一年並進入明年，準備從我們對產品的投資中獲得額外的收入流，同時繼續提高效率並減少我們的整體成本結構。

Let me now turn to our Q1 results. As I said, we were quite pleased with the quarter. Our revenues grew by 10.4% FXN to $7.04 billion in Q1, nearly 1.5 points better than our guidance. Consequently, we anticipate our full year revenues to be stronger than we expected, with the back half of the year being roughly similar in growth to the front half.

現在讓我談談我們的第一季度結果。正如我所說，我們對這個季度非常滿意。我們的收入在第一季度增長了 10.4% FXN 至 70.4 億美元，比我們的指導高出近 1.5 個百分點。因此，我們預計全年收入將強於我們的預期，下半年的增長與上半年大致相似。

We processed $355 billion of TPV, an acceleration of nearly 300 basis points sequentially from Q4 to 12% FXN, driven by 5.8 billion transactions in the quarter. With our branded checkout growing by 6.5%, we believe we improved our global share of checkout and gained share in unbranded processing.

在本季度 58 億筆交易的推動下，我們處理了 3550 億美元的 TPV，從第四季度開始連續加速近 300 個基點，達到 12% FXN。隨著我們的品牌結賬增長 6.5%，我們相信我們提高了結賬的全球份額，並獲得了非品牌處理的份額。

We saw our monthly active base slightly increased in line with our expectations, while TPA grew by 13% year-over-year. Importantly, our core PayPal consumer transactions per user improved throughout the quarter and, in March, was 400 basis points higher than in March of last year. In addition, we saw a consistent improvement in the quality of new cohorts in Q1 versus last year.

我們看到每月活躍基數略有增加，符合我們的預期，而 TPA 同比增長 13%。重要的是，我們的核心 PayPal 每位用戶消費者交易在整個季度都有所改善，並且在 3 月份比去年 3 月份高出 400 個基點。此外，與去年相比，我們看到第一季度新隊列的質量持續提高。

For instance, our March cohort of new accounts had 24% higher TPA and 40% higher ARPA than in March of last year. These results strongly reinforce our decision to focus our resources on engagement and driving high-value accounts. Driven by continued discipline and execution, our non-GAAP EPS for Q1 grew by 33% to $1.17, exceeding the high end of our guidance by $0.07. As a result, we are increasing our non-GAAP EPS guidance for the year to $4.95, up 20%.

例如，與去年 3 月份相比，我們 3 月份的新客戶隊列的 TPA 和 ARPA 分別高出 24% 和 40%。這些結果有力地加強了我們將資源集中在參與和推動高價值客戶上的決定。在持續的紀律和執行的推動下，我們第一季度的非 GAAP 每股收益增長了 33% 至 1.17 美元，超出我們指導的上限 0.07 美元。因此，我們將今年的非 GAAP 每股收益指引上調至 4.95 美元，增長 20%。

Our 3 strategic priorities remain consistent: improve our core checkout proposition, grow our unbranded processing and drive adoption of our digital wallets. We are making good and steady progress on each of these interrelated goals.

我們的 3 個戰略優先事項保持一致：改進我們的核心結賬主張，發展我們的非品牌處理並推動我們的數字錢包的採用。我們正在朝著這些相互關聯的目標中的每一個目標取得良好而穩步的進展。

I'd like to highlight our unbranded suite of services, including Braintree and our newest platform for SMBs and channel partners, PayPal Complete Payments. Within the highly fragmented processing ecosystem, our PSP offering across unbranded and other merchant services is growing faster than the market, and we are taking share. We believe that in an apples-to-apples comparison, our volumes in these areas are now roughly equal to that of Adyen and Stripe.

我想重點介紹我們的無品牌服務套件，包括 Braintree 和我們面向 SMB 和渠道合作夥伴的最新平台 PayPal Complete Payments。在高度分散的處理生態系統中，我們提供的無品牌 PSP 和其他商家服務的增長速度快於市場，我們正在搶占市場份額。我們認為，在同類比較中，我們在這些領域的銷量現在大致與 Adyen 和 Stripe 相當。

There are 4 points I want to make regarding our unbranded momentum. First, unbranded processing is a strategic imperative for us. Enabling our merchants with our unbranded service helps ensure that we have a deep relationship with our most important merchants. It enables us to bring our latest and most technologically sophisticated checkout integration across PayPal and Venmo and our Buy Now, Pay Later service to our merchant base. Going forward, we will primarily focus on enabling unbranded processing and our latest branded checkout experiences through Braintree and PayPal Complete Payments. Based on our early observations, our share of branded checkout stabilizes or grows when our latest checkout integrations are in place.

關於我們的無品牌勢頭，我想說 4 點。首先，無品牌加工是我們的戰略要務。為我們的商家提供我們的無品牌服務有助於確保我們與最重要的商家建立深厚的關係。它使我們能夠將 PayPal 和 Venmo 之間最新和技術最先進的結賬集成以及我們的“先買後付”服務帶到我們的商戶群中。展望未來，我們將主要專注於通過 Braintree 和 PayPal Complete Payments 實現無品牌處理和我們最新的品牌結賬體驗。根據我們的早期觀察，當我們最新的結賬整合到位時，我們的品牌結賬份額會穩定或增長。

Second, we will continue to invest to help ensure our unbranded platforms are best-in-class, enabling our merchants to reduce fraud and increase their sales conversion rates. We will do this while providing a comprehensive orchestration layer that enables our merchants to have a single point of contact and integration in a multi-PSP environment. Our platform reliability is now amongst the best-in-class, and our integrated servicing capabilities are increasingly differentiated.

其次，我們將繼續投資以幫助確保我們的非品牌平台是一流的，使我們的商家能夠減少欺詐並提高他們的銷售轉化率。我們將在提供全面的編排層的同時做到這一點，使我們的商家能夠在多 PSP 環境中擁有單點聯繫和集成。我們的平台可靠性目前在同類產品中名列前茅，我們的綜合服務能力日益差異化。

Third, we are focused on substantially improving the margin structure of our unbranded business. Our PayPal Complete Payments platform opens a new $750 billion TAM in the small and midsized business market, with a significantly enhanced margin structure compared with our largest enterprise customers. Our Braintree and PayPal Complete Payments platforms are also expanding overseas where we can drive higher margins. And we are adding value-added services to our platform like Risk-as-a-Service, full omnichannel capabilities, payouts and FX-as-a-Service to both enhance functionality and add incremental margins.

第三，我們專注於大幅改善非品牌業務的利潤結構。我們的 PayPal Complete Payments 平台在中小型企業市場開啟了 7500 億美元的新 TAM，與我們最大的企業客戶相比，其利潤結構顯著增強。我們的 Braintree 和 PayPal Complete Payments 平台也在向海外擴張，我們可以從中獲得更高的利潤。我們正在向我們的平台添加增值服務，例如風險即服務、全渠道功能、支付和外匯即服務，以增強功能並增加利潤。

And finally, enabling merchants with our unbranded services will provide a constant stream of incremental data to feed our AI engines and fuel our next-generation checkout platform. We believe no other company will be able to replicate the unique nature and scale of our data set. And in the future, our AI engines will use that data to drive differentiated capabilities to improve the entire checkout experience for our merchants.

最後，為商家提供我們的非品牌服務將提供源源不斷的增量數據流，為我們的 AI 引擎提供支持，並為我們的下一代結賬平台提供動力。我們相信沒有其他公司能夠複製我們數據集的獨特性和規模。未來，我們的人工智能引擎將使用這些數據來驅動差異化功能，以改善我們商家的整體結賬體驗。

We anticipate that this combination of initiatives will enable our unbranded services to become a clear market leader, drive additional growth in our branded checkout, enable our next generation of checkout and provide new sources of margin growth. And I would add that we continue to win and expand services with new marquee customers like Live Nation, Booking.com and Adobe.

我們預計，這些舉措的結合將使我們的非品牌服務成為明確的市場領導者，推動我們品牌結賬的額外增長，使我們的下一代結賬成為可能，並提供新的利潤增長來源。我還要補充一點，我們將繼續贏得併擴展與 Live Nation、Booking.com 和 Adobe 等新大客戶的服務。

Our focused efforts in improving our branded checkout are clearly making a difference in the market and in our results. Our product and engineering teams have driven substantial improvements in availability, latency and passwordless login. We also expect that our in-app native checkout solution via our APIs and SDKs, along with the deployment of our PayPal Complete Payments platform to our largest channel partners, should begin to bear significant fruit in bringing our legacy base to our latest integrations.

我們在改進品牌結賬方面的集中努力顯然對市場和我們的結果產生了影響。我們的產品和工程團隊推動了可用性、延遲和無密碼登錄方面的重大改進。我們還預計，我們通過 API 和 SDK 提供的應用內原生結賬解決方案，以及向我們最大的渠道合作夥伴部署我們的 PayPal Complete Payments 平台，應該開始在將我們的遺留基礎引入最新集成方面取得重大成果。

Buy Now, Pay Later continues to provide meaningful value to both our consumers and merchants. Over 32 million consumers have used our Buy Now, Pay Later service since inception at nearly 3 million merchants. We are now one of the most popular Buy Now, Pay Later services in the world with $6 billion of TPV in Q1, growing at 70% on a currency-neutral basis. Consumers spend 30% more on our branded checkout when using Buy Now, Pay Later, and we believe we have amongst the highest authorization rates and lowest loss rates in the industry.

先買後付繼續為我們的消費者和商家提供有意義的價值。自近 300 萬商家推出以來，已有超過 3200 萬消費者使用了我們的“先買後付”服務。我們現在是全球最受歡迎的“先買後付”服務之一，第一季度 TPV 達到 60 億美元，在貨幣中性基礎上增長了 70%。當使用“先買後付”時，消費者在我們的品牌結賬上多花 30%，我們相信我們擁有業內最高的授權率和最低的損失率。

Venmo continues to grow its revenues by double digits, and we were pleased to see its TPV accelerate 550 basis points from Q4 to $63 billion. We're continually working to improve the Venmo P2P experience. This quarter, we launched an easier, more intuitive way to split P2P payments across multiple people, and we also increased the ad funds limit for Venmo to $10,000. We recently added the ability for Venmo customers to transfer crypto to other users and external wallets, bringing it on par with the experience on PayPal.

Venmo 的收入繼續以兩位數的速度增長，我們很高興看到其 TPV 從第四季度加速增長 550 個基點至 630 億美元。我們一直在努力改善 Venmo P2P 體驗。本季度，我們推出了一種更簡單、更直觀的方式來將 P2P 支付分攤給多人，我們還將 Venmo 的廣告資金限額提高到 10,000 美元。我們最近為 Venmo 客戶添加了將加密貨幣轉移到其他用戶和外部錢包的功能，使其與 PayPal 上的體驗不相上下。

Later this year, we will add the ability for a Venmo user to pay a PayPal user and vice versa, bringing more utility to both customer bases. We are currently piloting the upcoming launch of Venmo teen accounts, which have been requested by both parents and teens for some time. Our Amazon and Starbucks experiences continue to grow nicely, and we recently launched PayPal and Venmo with McDonald's and just signed a deal with Microsoft to launch both Pay with Venmo and Buy Now, Pay Later for Microsoft's Xbox store.

今年晚些時候，我們將增加 Venmo 用戶向 PayPal 用戶付款的功能，反之亦然，從而為兩個客戶群帶來更多實用性。我們目前正在試行即將推出的 Venmo 青少年帳戶，一段時間以來，家長和青少年都提出了要求。我們在亞馬遜和星巴克的體驗繼續良好增長，我們最近與麥當勞推出了 PayPal 和 Venmo，並且剛剛與微軟簽署了一項協議，為微軟的 Xbox 商店推出 Pay with Venmo 和 Buy Now，Pay Later。

Finally, I'd like to briefly touch on the search for my successor. The Board has formed a subcommittee, and we are working with a leading search firm. We have detailed sense of criteria and skill sets to assess both internal and external candidates. We still plan to announce my replacement before year-end, and the process is well underway.

最後，我想簡要談談尋找繼任者的問題。董事會成立了一個小組委員會，我們正在與一家領先的獵頭公司合作。我們有詳細的標準和技能來評估內部和外部候選人。我們仍然計劃在年底前宣布我的繼任者，這個過程正在順利進行。

One of the most important criteria influencing my decision to retire was I felt that PayPal was on the right path to emerge from this economic climate in not only strong financial health, but also as a clear market leader in payments. Our results this quarter are another solid proof point that we are on that path.

影響我退休決定的最重要標準之一是，我認為 PayPal 正走在正確的道路上，不僅在強勁的財務狀況下，而且作為支付領域的明確市場領導者，都能從這種經濟環境中脫穎而出。我們本季度的業績是我們走在這條道路上的另一個有力證據。

I'd like to thank all of our employees for their hard work and excellent execution. We still have a lot to accomplish and prove, but our customers are responding to our efforts, and that is and will always be our North Star.

我要感謝我們所有員工的辛勤工作和出色的執行力。我們還有很多需要完成和證明的事情，但我們的客戶正在響應我們的努力，這就是並將永遠是我們的北極星。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Gabs.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給 Gabs。

Thanks, Dan. I'd like to start off by thanking our customers, partners and global team for helping us to deliver a great quarter. Our results demonstrate the relevance, diversification and strength of our payments platform. We are reporting healthy volume and revenue growth. This solid top line performance, in conjunction with expense management and efficiency gains, resulted in outstanding earnings growth. Notably, we accelerated our revenue and earnings growth on both a year-over-year and sequential basis.

謝謝，丹。首先，我要感謝我們的客戶、合作夥伴和全球團隊幫助我們實現了一個偉大的季度。我們的結果證明了我們支付平台的相關性、多樣化和實力。我們報告了健康的數量和收入增長。這種穩固的收入表現，加上費用管理和效率的提高，導致了顯著的收益增長。值得注意的是，我們在同比和環比的基礎上加快了收入和盈利增長。

Relative to the first quarter targets we shared with you in February, both our revenue and EPS outperformed. The foundation we established last year for cost discipline and to realize productivity gains allowed us to expand operating margins and deliver profitable growth.

相對於我們在 2 月份與您分享的第一季度目標，我們的收入和每股收益都表現出色。我們去年為成本控制和實現生產率提高而建立的基礎使我們能夠擴大營業利潤率並實現盈利增長。

Before discussing our outlook for the second quarter, I'd like to review our first quarter results. As Dan mentioned, revenue increased 10% on a currency-neutral basis and 9% at spot to $7.04 billion. This represents a 3-year revenue CAGR of 15% and 20%, excluding eBay.

在討論我們對第二季度的展望之前，我想回顧一下我們的第一季度業績。正如 Dan 提到的那樣，收入在貨幣中性基礎上增長了 10%，現貨增長了 9%，達到 70.4 億美元。這代表 3 年的收入複合年增長率為 15% 和 20%，不包括 eBay。

Transaction revenue grew 6% to $6.4 billion driven primarily by our unbranded processing volume. Other value-added services revenue grew 39% to $676 million, predominantly due to higher interest income on customer store balances and, to a lesser extent, solid performance from consumer and merchant credit.

交易收入增長 6% 至 64 億美元，主要受非品牌處理量的推動。其他增值服務收入增長 39% 至 6.76 億美元，這主要是由於客戶商店餘額的利息收入增加，以及在較小程度上來自消費者和商業信貸的穩健表現。

In the first quarter, U.S. revenue grew 13%. International revenue grew 3% spot and 7% on a currency-neutral basis, accelerating both year-over-year and sequentially. Transaction expense as a rate of TPV came in at 93 basis points, 5 basis points higher than Q1 last year. This increase was primarily driven by 30% growth in our unbranded processing volumes. These volumes grew approximately 3x faster than our overall TPV growth. As a result, transaction expense dollars grew 17%.

第一季度，美國收入增長了 13%。國際收入即期增長 3%，在貨幣中性基礎上增長 7%，同比和環比均加速增長。交易費用佔 TPV 的比率為 93 個基點，比去年第一季度高 5 個基點。這一增長主要是由於我們的非品牌加工量增長了 30%。這些銷量的增長速度比我們 TPV 的整體增長速度快約 3 倍。結果，交易費用美元增長了 17%。

Transaction loss as a rate of TPV was 8 basis points for the quarter, a 2 basis point improvement versus last year. Transaction loss dollars declined 7%. Our ongoing risk mitigation activities and our mix of volumes drove this improved performance. Credit losses were $142 million or 4 basis points as a rate of TPV. We ended Q1 with $7.5 billion in net receivables, flat sequentially.

本季度交易損失佔 TPV 的比率為 8 個基點，與去年相比提高了 2 個基點。交易損失美元下降了 7%。我們正在進行的風險緩解活動和我們的數量組合推動了這種改進的性能。信用損失為 1.42 億美元或 4 個基點作為 TPV 的比率。我們以 75 億美元的應收賬款淨額結束第一季度，環比持平。

Originations were primarily driven by the strength of our Buy Now, Pay Later franchise. As we have discussed, later this year, we plan to externalize a significant portion of this portfolio, reducing our balance sheet exposure as securing a long-term partner to support sustainable and healthy growth.

起源主要是由我們的“先買後付”特許經營權推動的。正如我們所討論的，今年晚些時候，我們計劃將這一投資組合的很大一部分外部化，減少我們的資產負債表風險，以確保長期合作夥伴支持可持續和健康的增長。

Our reserve coverage ratio increased sequentially to 7.8% in Q1 from 7.4%, reflecting growth in the consumer receivables portfolio and some deterioration in our PayPal business loans portfolio. Relative to Q1 2022, our reserve coverage ratio improved 50 basis points.

我們的準備金覆蓋率在第一季度從 7.4% 連續上升至 7.8%，反映出消費者應收賬款組合的增長以及我們的 PayPal 商業貸款組合的一些惡化。相對於 2022 年第一季度，我們的準備金覆蓋率提高了 50 個基點。

Similar to the broader industry, overall, we're seeing a normalization of our credit portfolio to pre-COVID delinquency levels. We continue to be pleased with the quality and diversification of our credit portfolio and are closely monitoring the macroeconomic environment while making appropriate adjustments to ensure we continue to perform within our internal risk appetite.

與更廣泛的行業類似，總體而言，我們看到我們的信貸組合正常化到 COVID 之前的拖欠水平。我們繼續對信貸組合的質量和多元化感到滿意，並在密切關注宏觀經濟環境的同時進行適當調整，以確保我們繼續在內部風險承受能力範圍內運作。

Continuing the trend from 2022, growth of unbranded processing volume outpaced growth in branded volume, resulting in slower transaction margin dollar growth. Volume-based expenses in the aggregate increased 17%, and transaction margin dollars grew 1% to $3.3 billion. Transaction margin declined to 47.1% from 50.9% in Q1 last year.

延續 2022 年的趨勢，非品牌加工量的增長超過品牌加工量的增長，導致交易利潤率增長放緩。基於數量的支出總額增長了 17%，交易保證金美元增長了 1% 至 33 億美元。交易利潤率從去年第一季度的 50.9% 下降至 47.1%。

While we do anticipate ongoing mix shift, we believe that this performance will improve as we execute against the strategies that Dan outlined to drive increased profitability across our unbranded processing volume and accelerated growth of our branded franchise.

雖然我們確實預計會持續發生組合轉變，但我們相信，隨著我們執行 Dan 概述的戰略，以提高我們非品牌加工量的盈利能力並加速我們品牌特許經營的增長，這一業績將會有所改善。

Strong discipline across nontransaction-related operating expenses more than offset the contraction in transaction margin. On a non-GAAP basis, nontransaction-related operating expenses declined more than 12%, with reductions in sales and marketing, technology and development, and customer support and operations expenses contributing significant leverage. This expense performance resulted in 19% growth in non-GAAP operating income to $1.6 billion. This is the highest growth in operating income that we have experienced in 8 quarters. Non-GAAP operating margin reached 22.7%, expanding 201 basis points from the first quarter of 2022. In addition, we're pleased to be reporting $1.17 in non-GAAP earnings per share for Q1, representing 33% growth year-over-year.

對非交易相關運營費用的嚴格紀律抵消了交易利潤率的收縮。在非 GAAP 基礎上，非交易相關的運營費用下降了 12% 以上，其中銷售和營銷、技術和開發以及客戶支持和運營費用的減少貢獻了顯著的槓桿作用。這一費用表現導致非 GAAP 營業收入增長 19% 至 16 億美元。這是我們 8 個季度以來營業收入的最高增長。非 GAAP 營業利潤率達到 22.7%，比 2022 年第一季度擴大了 201 個基點。此外，我們很高興地報告第一季度非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.17 美元，同比增長 33% .

We continue to be in a very strong position from a balance sheet and liquidity perspective, ending the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and investments of $15.3 billion. During the quarter, we generated $1 billion in free cash flow. Cash taxes related to the intra-group transfer of intellectual property reduced operating cash flow by approximately $430 million. And in Q1, we allocated $1.4 billion to share repurchases. For the full year, we continue to expect to generate approximately $5 billion in free cash flow and to repurchase roughly $4 billion of our shares.

從資產負債表和流動性的角度來看，我們繼續處於非常有利的地位，本季度結束時現金、現金等價物和投資為 153 億美元。本季度，我們產生了 10 億美元的自由現金流。與集團內部知識產權轉讓相關的現金稅減少了約 4.3 億美元的經營現金流。在第一季度，我們分配了 14 億美元用於股票回購。對於全年，我們繼續期望產生大約 50 億美元的自由現金流，並回購大約 40 億美元的股票。

I'd now like to discuss our guidance for the second quarter and update our outlook for the full year. For the second quarter, we expect revenue to grow approximately 7.5% to 8% on a currency-neutral basis and 6.5% to 7% at spot. In addition, we expect non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of $1.15 to $1.17, representing growth of approximately 25% at the midpoint of the range.

我現在想討論我們對第二季度的指導並更新我們對全年的展望。對於第二季度，我們預計收入在貨幣中性基礎上增長約 7.5% 至 8%，現貨增長 6.5% 至 7%。此外，我們預計非 GAAP 每股收益將在 1.15 美元至 1.17 美元之間，在該範圍的中點增長約 25%。

For the full year, given our earnings outperformance in the first quarter, we are raising our outlook. We now expect non-GAAP earnings per share to grow 20% to approximately $4.95, an increase of 2 points of growth from the guidance we shared in February. At the start of the year, we indicated that our framework for 18% non-GAAP EPS growth in 2023 contemplated revenue growth coming in as low as mid-single digits. We also shared that our objective was to deliver revenue performance that exceeded this baseline.

對於全年，鑑於我們在第一季度的盈利表現出色，我們正在上調我們的展望。我們現在預計非 GAAP 每股收益將增長 20% 至約 4.95 美元，比我們在 2 月份發布的指引高出 2 個百分點。今年年初，我們表示我們的 2023 年非 GAAP 每股收益增長 18% 的框架預計收入增長將低至中等個位數。我們還表示，我們的目標是提供超過此基準的收入績效。

Our first quarter performance and the guidance for the second quarter are meaningful steps towards achieving this objective. As Dan indicated, assuming that current macro conditions continue, we now expect our back half revenue growth to be roughly in line with our performance in the first half of the year. Additionally, based on the expected contribution of unbranded processing volumes to our growth, we now expect at least 100 basis points of operating margin expansion in 2023.

我們第一季度的業績和第二季度的指導是實現這一目標的有意義的步驟。正如 Dan 所指出的那樣，假設當前的宏觀狀況持續下去，我們現在預計我們後半年的收入增長將與上半年的業績大致一致。此外，根據非品牌加工量對我們增長的預期貢獻，我們現在預計 2023 年營業利潤率至少增長 100 個基點。

We are encouraged by our start to the year, and at the same time, mindful that the environment remains dynamic. We're focused on execution and will be agile and responsive to how the macroeconomic environment is playing out. And we plan to continue to guide revenue 1 quarter at a time.

我們對今年的開局感到鼓舞，同時注意到環境仍然充滿活力。我們專注於執行，並將對宏觀經濟環境的發展做出敏捷和反應。我們計劃繼續一次引導一個季度的收入。

To wrap up, we entered the year as a more focused business with strong fundamentals. We're off to a great start in 2023 and believe we're well-positioned to deliver revenue and earnings growth, expand margins and generate strong free cash flow.

總而言之，我們進入了這一年，成為了一個更加專注、基本面強勁的企業。我們在 2023 年有了一個良好的開端，相信我們有能力實現收入和盈利增長、擴大利潤率並產生強勁的自由現金流。

We're continuing to invest to accelerate our growth and capture the meaningful opportunity ahead of us. In addition, our expansive scale enables us to realize additional efficiencies and productivity gains. We believe our digital payments platform is unrivaled in breadth and depth, which creates a powerful competitive advantage for us. And we have conviction that our strategy to accelerate our branded checkout franchise, improve the margin profile of our unbranded processing platform and strengthen our digital wallet will result in significant and enduring value creation for our shareholders. We look forward to continuing to share our progress with you.

我們將繼續投資以加速我們的增長並抓住我們面前的有意義的機會。此外，我們龐大的規模使我們能夠實現額外的效率和生產力收益。我們相信我們的數字支付平台在廣度和深度上都是無與倫比的，這為我們創造了強大的競爭優勢。我們堅信，我們加速品牌結賬特許經營、提高非品牌處理平台的利潤率和加強數字錢包的戰略將為我們的股東創造重大而持久的價值。我們期待繼續與您分享我們的進步。

With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for questions. Sarah, please go ahead.

有了這個，我會把它交給接線員提問。莎拉，請繼續。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang of JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自摩根大通的Tien-Tsin Huang。

Nice performance here on revenue. So I'll ask one question there. Looks like Q1 clearly had -- like you talked about the second quarter revenue growth is in line with what we have in the model. It's 3 points lower than what was just reported here. And then you're calling for second half to be in line with the first half, which is better than what we modeled and better than what you guys talked about before. So my question is, how much of this change is macro-related versus maybe some momentum with some of the new products and integrations that, Dan, you're talking about?

這裡的收入表現不錯。所以我會在那裡問一個問題。看起來第一季度顯然已經 - 就像你談到的第二季度收入增長與我們在模型中的增長一致。它比這裡剛剛報導的低 3 個百分點。然後你要求下半場與上半場保持一致，這比我們建模的要好，也比你們之前談論的要好。所以我的問題是，這種變化有多少是與宏觀相關的，而不是丹，你在談論的一些新產品和集成的勢頭？

As well as curious on share gains, if your thinking is different there. And we've been curious if you've seen any sort of benefit from flight to quality with all the stresses in the banking system, so most every work suggests that. So love to hear your thoughts on that, if you don't mind.

除了對股票收益感到好奇，如果你的想法在那裡有所不同。我們一直很好奇，在銀行系統面臨所有壓力的情況下，您是否看到了從飛行到質量的任何好處，所以大多數工作都表明了這一點。如果您不介意的話，很想听聽您對此的想法。

Sure. That was one question? So let me start with that and then Gabs can come in. First of all, obviously, we had a real strong start to the year. It was stronger than our expectations, but we just missed around 11% FXN revenue growth at 10.4%. It's still 150 basis points better than our expectations on that. And I think what really pleased us on that is all parts of the business accelerated. You had TPV gone up 300 basis points sequentially from Q4 to 12%. Branded grew by 200 basis points to 6.5%. Growth unbranded just continues to fire on all cylinders at 30%. And even Venmo was up almost 600 basis points. And so it's a good strong start.

當然。那是一個問題？所以讓我先從這個開始，然後 Gabs 可以進來。首先，很明顯，我們今年的開局非常強勁。它強於我們的預期，但我們錯過了 11% 左右的 FXN 收入增長 10.4%。它仍然比我們的預期高出 150 個基點。我認為真正讓我們高興的是業務的所有部分都在加速。你讓 TPV 從第四季度連續上升 300 個基點到 12%。品牌增長了 200 個基點，達到 6.5%。無品牌增長只是繼續以 30% 的速度在所有汽缸上燃燒。甚至 Venmo 也上漲了近 600 個基點。所以這是一個良好的開端。

And the other thing that we didn't mention is our Net Promoter Score, which is kind of how our customers feel about us, is at a 5-year high this quarter. So obviously, a lot of things are going the way that we hoped they would be.

我們沒有提到的另一件事是我們的淨推薦值，這是我們的客戶對我們的感覺，本季度處於 5 年來的最高水平。很明顯，很多事情都在朝著我們希望的方向發展。

I think if you look at second quarter coming down, third quarter and then fourth quarter, we're lapping some onetime events in Q2 and Q3. That put pressure of about 1 point to 1.5 points on our growth. Normalized, you'd have Q2 off of those onetime things growing 8.5%, 9% or so. So that's kind of the normalized growth in the quarter.

我想如果你看看第二季度、第三季度和第四季度，我們會在第二季度和第三季度完成一些一次性事件。這給我們的增長帶來了大約 1 到 1.5 個百分點的壓力。歸一化後，那些曾經增長 8.5%、9% 左右的事物將在第二季度結束。所以這就是本季度的正常增長。

As we look out to the rest of the year in the back half, what's changed in our outlook, first of all, we're 1/3 of the way through the year as opposed to just coming into the year. And there are 2 things that we think are happening right now. First of all, our initiatives are taking hold in the market. There's no silver bullet on any one thing that comes in. These are a number of small things, whether it be improving latency 40% in the last year. Our goal is to improve it by 50% by the end of this year. Our availability being at an all-time high. We are pretty much at five nines almost all the time.

當我們展望今年下半年的剩餘時間時，我們的前景發生了什麼變化，首先，我們今年已經完成了 1/3，而不是剛剛進入這一年。我們認為現在有兩件事正在發生。首先，我們的舉措正在市場上站穩腳跟。任何一件事情都沒有靈丹妙藥。這些都是一些小事情，無論是在去年將延遲提高 40%。我們的目標是到今年年底將其提高 50%。我們的可用性處於歷史最高水平。我們幾乎一直處於五個九的狀態。

We're fixing bugs all over. We're reducing friction. There are less calls coming into service unbranded. We put a lot of investment in that, and it is taking off. And we have very high expectations for what PPCP can do in the small and midsized market and with our channel partners as well.

我們正在全面修復錯誤。我們正在減少摩擦。沒有品牌的電話越來越少。我們在這方面投入了大量資金，它正在起飛。我們對 PPCP 在中小型市場以及我們的渠道合作夥伴方面的表現寄予厚望。

And we're seeing things like new cohort strength, as I mentioned in my remark, that are significantly higher than cohorts we've seen in quite some time. And so we know we still have a lot to do there. But when you have scale like ours, Tien-Tsin, and you start making small incremental improvements, it has a flywheel effect. And so we're pretty pleased with what we're seeing there.

正如我在發言中提到的，我們看到了像新隊列強度這樣的東西，它們明顯高於我們在很長一段時間內看到的隊列。所以我們知道我們在那裡還有很多工作要做。但是，當您擁有像我們這樣的規模時，Tien-Tsin，並且您開始進行小的漸進式改進，它就會產生飛輪效應。因此，我們對在那裡看到的情況感到非常滿意。

The other thing is, look, we came into the year with really muted expectations around e-commerce global, e-commerce growth. We thought it could be anywhere from like negative 2% to maybe positive 2%, call it flat in general. We saw that pickup in first quarter. We think it could be low single digits, maybe mid -- as high as mid-single digits.

另一件事是，看，我們進入這一年時對電子商務全球電子商務增長的期望真的很低。我們認為它可能在負 2% 到正 2% 之間的任何地方，總的來說持平。我們在第一季度看到了這種回升。我們認為它可能是低個位數，也許是中位數——高達中個位數。

Clearly, consumers are turning more of their spend to e-commerce, and I think many of us expect it. And as long as we continue to see those trends, we think now it is very different than what we thought coming in that the back half growth is going to be equal to our front half growth. So it's a much improved outlook than we have before. Gabs, anything to add to that?

顯然，消費者正在將更多的支出轉向電子商務，我想我們中的許多人都預料到了這一點。只要我們繼續看到這些趨勢，我們現在認為它與我們認為的後半部分增長將等於我們前半部分的增長是非常不同的。因此，這比我們以前的前景要好得多。 Gabs，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No.

不。

Your next question comes from the line of Lisa Ellis with MoffettNathanson.

你的下一個問題來自 Lisa Ellis 和 MoffettNathanson 的對話。

Just a couple of follow-up questions there, Dan, for you. One, can you elaborate a little bit on what's driving the 30% growth in unbranded TPV and how sustainable that is? Meaning, like, is it a couple of large clients that will eventually lap? Or is this more broad-based growth?

丹，只有幾個後續問題要問你。第一，您能否詳細說明是什麼推動了無品牌 TPV 的 30% 增長以及這種增長的可持續性？意思是，是否有幾個大客戶最終會出現？或者這是更廣泛的增長？

And then second, can you just talk a little bit more about PayPal Complete Payments' competitive positioning down market and where exactly you think that's going to win and what -- how quickly that will ramp?

其次，您能否多談談 PayPal Complete Payments 在低端市場的競爭定位，以及您認為它將在哪些方面獲勝，以及它會以多快的速度增長？

Yes. So Braintree continues to do extraordinarily well. And it's not just winning incremental clients, but we are growing our share of the overall PSP volume in our largest clients as well. Look, we did expect Braintree and we do expect Braintree to moderate its growth, lapping some big deals last year. But honestly, we're working on some big deals this year, too. And we've got a lot of momentum in Braintree. And I think its success -- it's differentiated. It's driven by an open architecture where we are perfectly willing to orchestrate transactions to third-party services and other PSPs.

是的。所以布倫特里繼續做得非常好。這不僅贏得了增量客戶，而且我們還在最大的客戶中增加了我們在 PSP 總量中的份額。看，我們確實期望 Braintree 並且我們確實期望 Braintree 會放緩其增長，去年達成一些大交易。但老實說，我們今年也在做一些大交易。我們在 Braintree 有很大的動力。我認為它的成功——它與眾不同。它由開放式架構驅動，我們非常願意在其中協調與第三方服務和其他 PSP 的交易。

And we've got integrated servicing. We've got our availability, I think now it's amongst best-in-class. I think we've got the lowest loss rates fraud in the industry, some of the highest loss rates may be up to 390 basis points, better than others. And we've got a number of great value-added services that others have, but we're expanding to, whether they be APMs or vaulting or real time card updater on payouts, and we're adding more and more that are really valuable to clients and also are very high margin like FX-as-a-Service. If you look at audience results and you see how much comes from their profits, come from FX-as-a-Service, you can see why we're eager to add that.

我們有綜合服務。我們有空餘時間，我認為現在它是一流的。我認為我們擁有業內最低的損失率欺詐，一些最高的損失率可能高達 390 個基點，比其他人更好。我們有許多其他人擁有的很棒的增值服務，但我們正在擴展到，無論是 APM 還是金庫或支付的實時卡更新程序，我們正在添加越來越多真正有價值的服務對客戶來說也是非常高的利潤，比如外匯即服務。如果你看看觀眾的結果，你會看到有多少來自他們的利潤，來自 FX-as-a-Service，你就會明白為什麼我們渴望添加它。

On the PPCP side of it, there are obviously some benefits as you move into the small and midsized market. First of all, you obviously have a higher margin structure than you do with your large enterprises. And we clearly see that even in the PayPal button dynamics that we have.

在 PPCP 方面，進入中小型市場顯然有一些好處。首先，與大型企業相比，您的利潤率結構顯然更高。我們清楚地看到，即使在我們擁有的 PayPal 按鈕動態中也是如此。

It's a really flexible, simple integration. It's fully featured as well. It's got all the APMs, including Apple Pay. It's got vaulting, IC++ real-time account updater. It's got all of our latest integrations. And it's integrated with iZettle for omnichannel capabilities. And it also is targeted at channel partners. And that's a really important thing. And we're making some really good progress in our initial conversations for the last -- of our major channel partners.

這是一個非常靈活、簡單的集成。它的功能也很齊全。它擁有所有的 APM，包括 Apple Pay。它有金庫、IC++ 實時帳戶更新程序。它擁有我們所有的最新集成。它還與 iZettle 集成以提供全渠道功能。它還針對渠道合作夥伴。這是一件非常重要的事情。我們在與主要渠道合作夥伴的最後一次初步對話中取得了一些非常好的進展。

If those channel partners are hosted, they run their services as a hosted service. Once we upgrade them to PPCP, our latest checkout integrations very quickly move into that merchant base, that's part of those channel partners. And it's a way of moving our long tail of merchants on to our latest checkout integrations.

如果這些渠道合作夥伴是託管的，他們將以託管服務的形式運行他們的服務。一旦我們將它們升級到 PPCP，我們最新的結賬集成就會很快進入該商家群，這是那些渠道合作夥伴的一部分。這是將我們的長尾商家轉移到我們最新的結賬集成的一種方式。

We're now fully live with PPCP here in the U.S. We'll expand to EU and to Australia next quarter. And the other really important thing about our unbranded services besides the fact that they've got a deep relationship with our most important clients, if they drive a ton of data into our machine learning and AI engines, it's why we have amongst the lowest loss rates in the industry, the lowest instances of fraud, the highest conversion rates. And so when I look at all of that together, it's why I really spend time calling out why unbranded is a strategic imperative for us.

我們現在在美國完全接受 PPCP。我們將在下個季度擴展到歐盟和澳大利亞。關於我們的無品牌服務的另一個非常重要的事情是，除了他們與我們最重要的客戶建立了深厚的關係之外，如果他們將大量數據驅動到我們的機器學習和人工智能引擎中，這就是我們損失最低的原因業內率最低的欺詐實例，最高的轉化率。因此，當我把所有這些放在一起看時，這就是為什麼我真的花時間大聲疾呼為什麼無品牌是我們的戰略要務。

People have asked us about our transaction margin, what's happening with that, looking at our growth of unbranded. To me, that is a high-class problem for us to have. We are winning in that market faster than we anticipated. We have a very well thought-through strategy and set of actions to drive margin in that business. And we're very focused on making that happen, and we're seeing the beginnings of that already happening. So I appreciate the question, Lisa. I think it's a really important one.

人們問我們關於我們的交易利潤率，這是怎麼回事，看看我們無品牌的增長。對我來說，這對我們來說是一個高級問題。我們在那個市場上的獲勝速度比我們預期的要快。我們有一個經過深思熟慮的戰略和一系列行動來提高該業務的利潤率。我們非常專注於實現這一目標，我們看到這已經開始了。所以我很欣賞這個問題，麗莎。我認為這是一個非常重要的問題。

Your next question comes from the line of Darrin Peller with Wolfe Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Darrin Peller。

Braintree growth and mix obviously were a factor on the take rate in margins. But if you could just help us understand the dynamics of margins in the second half. I know you're lowering incremental margin guidance by 25 bps to 100 basis points despite with obviously very strong expense management results. Maybe you could just help us understand how much of that is related to either the Braintree mix versus any other variables in the second half we have to keep in mind.

Braintree 的增長和混合顯然是影響利潤率的一個因素。但如果你能幫助我們了解下半年的利潤動態。我知道你將增量利潤率指導下調 25 個基點至 100 個基點，儘管費用管理結果顯然非常強勁。也許你可以幫助我們了解這其中有多少與 Braintree 組合相關，而在下半年我們必須牢記的任何其他變量。

And just as a quick add-on to that, when would we expect the strength of the Braintree volume we're seeing to actually translate to some higher-margin offerings at a faster pace?

作為一個快速的補充，我們什麼時候可以期望我們看到的 Braintree 卷的力量以更快的速度實際轉化為一些更高利潤的產品？

Yes, you bet. I'll start. You're right. So we have some margin dynamics that are worth calling out as it relates to first half versus second half performance specifically as it relates to operating margin. Our Q1 operating margin performance was very, very strong with about 200 basis points operating margin expansion. In Q2, our expectation is actually that it would be ahead of that from an expansion standpoint. And so we're really delivering the vast majority of the margin expansion on the year from an operating margin standpoint in the first half of the year. The back half, we actually have some lapping dynamics and some nuances that will result in much more modest operating margin expansion for 2H overall.

是的，你打賭。我會開始。你說得對。因此，我們有一些值得關注的利潤率動態，因為它與上半年和下半年的業績有關，特別是與營業利潤率有關。我們第一季度的營業利潤率表現非常非常強勁，營業利潤率增長了約 200 個基點。在第二季度，我們的預期實際上是從擴張的角度來看它會領先於此。因此，從今年上半年的營業利潤率來看，我們確實實現了今年絕大部分的利潤率增長。後半部分，我們實際上有一些重疊動態和一些細微差別，這將導致 2H 整體營業利潤率增長更為溫和。

Within that, I'd say it's worth highlighting that Q3, I'd expect to see some pressure on operating margin, maybe some slight pressure. And then in Q4, we'll see expansion again, but more modest expansion than you're seeing in the first half of the year and really sort of what the drivers of that are, Dan highlighted a few of them. We do have some lapping dynamics in the back half of the year. In Q3, specifically, there were some benefits on the TE side. We're also beginning to really lap the benefit from increased interest rates. And the increased revenue that we earn on customer store balances that really starts in Q3 continued in Q4. So as we lap that, we don't expect to see operating margin expansion in the back half.

其中，我想說值得強調的是第三季度，我預計營業利潤率會受到一些壓力，也許是一些輕微的壓力。然後在第四季度，我們將再次看到擴張，但擴張比你在今年上半年看到的更為溫和，這實際上是驅動因素，丹強調了其中的一些。我們在今年下半年確實有一些重疊動態。具體來說，在第三季度，TE 方面有一些好處。我們也開始真正享受利率上升帶來的好處。我們從第三季度真正開始的客戶商店餘額收入的增加在第四季度繼續存在。因此，當我們這樣做時，我們預計下半年的營業利潤率不會擴大。

In addition, we began to really lap a lot of the cost savings work that started in the back half of last year. And so while we do expect to see a meaningful decline in nontransaction-related operating expenses in both Q3 and Q4, from a percentage decline standpoint, it will not be as great as what we're seeing in Q1 and Q2. And so all of that taken together will result in that differential between the first half and the back half op margin expansion for the full year.

此外，我們開始真正完成去年下半年開始的大量成本節約工作。因此，雖然我們確實預計第三季度和第四季度與非交易相關的運營費用會出現顯著下降，但從百分比下降的角度來看，它不會像我們在第一季度和第二季度看到的那樣大。因此，所有這些加在一起將導致全年上半年和後半年運營利潤率擴張之間的差異。

Again, we do expect to see at least 100 basis points of op margin expansion. That change that you called out between the 125 and at least 100, that is predominantly driven by the fact that when we're talking about our revenue being slightly ahead, a lot of the benefit that we're seeing is coming from the Braintree business and having a lot more visibility in that pipeline, and that's contributing to our top line, but also having some margin impact.

同樣，我們確實希望看到至少 100 個基點的營業利潤率擴張。你在 125 和至少 100 之間提到的變化，主要是因為當我們談論我們的收入略微領先時，我們看到的很多好處來自 Braintree 業務並且在該管道中具有更多的可見性，這有助於我們的收入，但也會產生一些利潤率影響。

Dan, do you want to talk a little bit about the strategies in unbranded?

Dan，你想談談 unbranded 中的策略嗎？

Yes. I think maybe I'd take a step back for a second. I mean I think, look, our strategy on average and over time is to deliver double-digit EPS growth year after year after year. And we've had a good track record in general of doing that. We've got a well thought-through strategy and a set of actions that's going to deliver increased transaction margin dollars, along with OpEx reductions, to make sure that we do that.

是的。我想也許我會退後一步。我的意思是，我認為，看，我們的平均戰略和隨著時間的推移，年復一年地實現兩位數的每股收益增長。總體而言，我們在這方面有良好的記錄。我們有一個經過深思熟慮的戰略和一系列行動，這些行動將增加交易利潤，同時減少運營支出，以確保我們做到這一點。

We've talked a lot about the initiatives that we're focused on, and we've been focused on the same thing for over a year now. It's drive-branded checkout. That's our #1 priority. All of our initiatives are linked to that. It's our highest margin service. It's our bread and butter, and we're absolutely determined to have that be best in class.

我們已經就我們所關注的計劃進行了很多討論，一年多來我們一直專注於同一件事。這是驅動器品牌結帳。這是我們的第一要務。我們所有的舉措都與此相關。這是我們利潤率最高的服務。這是我們的生計，我們絕對決心做到最好。

We want to drive unbranded because of all the things I talked about in my remarks. It helps us on branded share of checkout. It helps us in our data collection and all of the things we can do with those unique sense of data. And unbranded will be a new source of margin generation for us, without question. We are beginning to put those services already into place. Many of them will go into place by the fourth quarter, and I expect to see the majority of those things start to take effect in 2024.

由於我在發言中談到的所有事情，我們希望不帶品牌。它幫助我們在結帳時獲得品牌份額。它幫助我們收集數據以及我們可以利用這些獨特的數據感做的所有事情。毫無疑問，無品牌將成為我們產生利潤的新來源。我們已經開始將這些服務部署到位。其中許多將在第四季度前實施，我預計其中大部分將在 2024 年開始生效。

And then clearly, we're managing our OpEx extremely well. I can talk a bit more detail on that if anyone has a question on it. But we said we thought it would be negative high single digits this year. It's likely to be 10% -- negative 10% plus. And if anybody thought what caused them going up, they'll go down again next year as well. I can talk more about that. But we've got a real set of initiatives and strategies focused on this. We're executing against it. I'm confident that we'll be able to deliver on what we set out to do.

然後很明顯，我們的運營支出管理得非常好。如果有人對此有疑問，我可以更詳細地討論一下。但我們說過我們認為今年會是負的高個位數。很可能是 10%——負 10% 以上。如果有人認為是什麼導致它們上漲，明年它們也會再次下跌。我可以談談更多。但我們有一套真正的舉措和戰略專注於此。我們正在反對它。我相信我們將能夠實現我們的目標。

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Jason Kupferberg。

Good to see the improved revenue outlook here. I actually wanted to switch over to the branded side of TPV growth. As you mentioned, you had a couple of points of acceleration there. Wanted to understand which countries or verticals or other drivers, what was behind that. Would you attribute any material amount of the improvement through the rollout of advanced checkout? And then just any directional comments on how branded checkout TPV growth may trend during the balance of the year in support of the revenue outlook you talked about.

很高興看到這裡的收入前景有所改善。我實際上想切換到 TPV 增長的品牌方面。正如你提到的，你在那裡有幾個加速點。想了解哪些國家或垂直行業或其他驅動因素，背後的原因是什麼。您是否認為高級結賬的推出帶來了實質性的改進？然後只是關於品牌結賬 TPV 在今年餘下時間的增長趨勢如何支持您談到的收入前景的任何定向評論。

Yes, thanks, Jason. I think maybe I'll grab that one. So if I just take a step back for a second, like we're the market leader in online checkout, right? We've got 35 million merchants accept us. 80% of the top 1,500 online retailers in the U.S. accept us. There's no other digital wallet that comes close to that acceptance. In general, our auth rates are about 600 basis points better than the industry average. It means every time a hundred things that a consumer does to buy from a merchant, we approve 6 more of them.

是的，謝謝，傑森。我想也許我會抓住那個。所以，如果我退後一步，就像我們是在線結賬的市場領導者一樣，對吧？我們有 3500 萬商家接受我們。美國前 1,500 家在線零售商中有 80% 接受我們。沒有其他數字錢包能接近這種接受程度。總的來說，我們的授權率比行業平均水平高出約 600 個基點。這意味著每當消費者從商家那裡購買一百件東西時，我們就會再批准其中的 6 件。

And we've got consumer trust and brand trust in that when a smaller midsized merchant puts PayPal on their website, they see a 44% conversion lift by doing that. So these are really strong advantages that we're going to leverage going forward. But obviously, there's a ton of stuff we can still do, right? We're optimizing presentment. We're making sure that our best-in-class integrations are out there, whether that comes through our branded checkout, whether that comes through the new SDKs and APIs that we have, whether that comes through PPCP, going into channel partners. So -- because we know when we have our best-in-class integrations, we either have stable share or growing share of checkout.

我們得到了消費者的信任和品牌信任，因為當一個中小型商家將 PayPal 放在他們的網站上時，他們看到這樣做的轉化率提升了 44%。因此，這些是我們將在未來利用的真正強大優勢。但顯然，我們仍然可以做很多事情，對吧？我們正在優化展示。我們確保提供一流的集成，無論是通過我們的品牌結帳，還是通過我們擁有的新 SDK 和 API，還是通過 PPCP，進入渠道合作夥伴。所以——因為我們知道當我們擁有一流的集成時，我們要么擁有穩定的份額，要么擁有不斷增長的結賬份額。

Our availability, as I mentioned, is closing in our five nines of latency, improved it by 40%. We'll improve it up to 50% better, makes a giant difference in conversion rates. Our passwordless login improved by 10 full points last year. We intend to grow that again this year, whether that be through pass keys or tethered ID or forms of biometrics.

正如我所提到的，我們的可用性正在接近我們的五個九的延遲，將其改善了 40%。我們會將其改進多達 50%，從而在轉化率方面產生巨大差異。我們的無密碼登錄去年提高了 10 個滿分。我們打算今年再次擴大這一點，無論是通過密鑰、系留 ID 還是生物識別形式。

Buy Now, Pay Later, we're taking share there, and we are intending to continue to take share there. Our auth rates are higher, we think, than anyone else's because we know the customers coming in, over 90% of the customers coming in to Buy Now, Pay Later are already PayPal customers. It's why we think we also have the lowest loss rates. And we know -- somebody mentioned flight to quality, that people are coming to PayPal and our Buy Now, Pay Later services. And we are targeting all of the largest merchants.

先買後付，我們正在那裡佔有一席之地，我們打算繼續在那裡佔有一席之地。我們認為，我們的授權率比其他任何人都高，因為我們知道進來的客戶，超過 90% 的來“立即購買，稍後付款”的客戶已經是 PayPal 客戶。這就是為什麼我們認為我們的損失率也是最低的。我們知道——有人提到追求質量，人們正在使用 PayPal 和我們的“先買後付”服務。我們的目標是所有最大的商家。

We know when our competitor's contracts are up. And we are going after that business because we see a clear shift in market share as well as spend when we have Buy Now, Pay Later in our checkout flows.

我們知道競爭對手的合同何時到期。我們正在開展這項業務，因為我們看到市場份額和支出發生明顯變化，因為我們在結賬流程中採用了“先買後付”的模式。

And obviously, we're now full GA on our mobile checkout with our SDKs and APIs. And we are now beginning to experiment with the first generation of what we call AI-powered checkout, which looks at the full checkout experience, not just the PayPal checkout experience, but the full checkout experience for our merchants. So we have a lot of things underway in our branded checkout.

顯然，我們現在已經通過我們的 SDK 和 API 在我們的移動結賬上實現了完整的 GA。我們現在開始試驗我們稱之為人工智能支持的第一代結賬，它著眼於完整的結賬體驗，不僅僅是 PayPal 結賬體驗，而是我們商家的完整結賬體驗。所以我們在我們的品牌結賬中有很多事情正在進行中。

But I will just say this, the team is executing extremely well here. When they say they're going to get something done, they do. They have a road map that they are consistently executing. What they think will happen is happening in the market. And so I've got a lot of confidence that we'll continue to see branded share of checkout be strong.

但我只想說，球隊在這裡的表現非常出色。當他們說他們要完成某件事時，他們確實做到了。他們有一個他們一直在執行的路線圖。他們認為會發生的事情正在市場上發生。因此，我非常有信心我們將繼續看到結賬的品牌份額強勁。

And we saw, by the way, in U.S., U.K. Germany, France, it'll expand most of the EU markets, Australia and improvement in our share position. Of course, there's an odd-one uniform measure of market share, but any way you look at it when you're a branded share or your growth goes up sequentially by 200 basis points, that's a lot of momentum.

順便說一下，我們在美國、英國、德國、法國看到，它將擴大大部分歐盟市場、澳大利亞，並提高我們的份額地位。當然，市場份額有一個奇怪的統一衡量標準，但無論您以何種方式看待品牌份額或您的增長連續上升 200 個基點，這都是很大的動力。

Your next question comes from the line of David Togut with Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

How are you thinking about the opportunity for cost savings and OpEx reduction beyond 2023? And in particular, if you could maybe weigh that against potential transaction margin dynamics as well to the extent those will continue next year based on the trend we saw in Q1.

您如何看待 2023 年後節省成本和減少運營支出的機會？特別是，如果您可以根據我們在第一季度看到的趨勢，將其與潛在的交易保證金動態以及明年將持續的程度進行權衡。

Yes. I'll start off, and then Gabs can attack the last part of your question. First of all, obviously, we had good solid progress against what we said we're going to do, negative 12% in Q1. I think our OpEx for the full year could decline as much as negative 10%, which is a bit higher than we expected. And as I said in my remarks, we're just beginning on this efficiency journey. I think you're going to see our costs continue to come down year-over-year-over-year. And this is not just about efficiencies, by the way. It's not about cost reduction. It's about doing things better.

是的。我會開始，然後 Gabs 可以攻擊你問題的最後一部分。首先，很明顯，我們在我們所說的我們要做的事情上取得了良好的進展，第一季度為負 12%。我認為我們全年的運營支出可能會下降 10%，這比我們預期的要高一些。正如我在發言中所說，我們才剛剛開始這段效率之旅。我認為你會看到我們的成本逐年下降。順便說一句，這不僅僅是關於效率。這與降低成本無關。這是關於把事情做得更好。

There's no question that AI is going to impact almost every function inside of PayPal, whether it be our front office, back office, marketing, legal, engineering, you name it. AI will have an impact and allow us to not just lower cost, but have higher performance and do things that is not about trade-offs. It's about doing both in there.

毫無疑問，人工智能將影響 PayPal 內部的幾乎所有功能，無論是我們的前台、後台、營銷、法律、工程，應有盡有。人工智能將產生影響，讓我們不僅可以降低成本，還可以提高性能，並做一些與權衡無關的事情。這是關於在那裡做這兩件事。

The other thing that the teams are doing and doing extremely well is they're improving processes. Right now, they're removing friction with a much simpler onboarding process, first transaction resolution. We're seeing better engagement as a result, fewer calls, as I mentioned, higher NPS. You're seeing that in our newest cohorts coming in with significantly higher TPA and ARPA. And so I think this is going to be a cost journey that we'll be on for a long time to come. And I think at the same time, we'll just be doing things better than we've ever been doing them before as well.

團隊正在做並且做得非常好的另一件事是他們正在改進流程。現在，他們正在通過更簡單的入職流程、首次交易解決方案來消除摩擦。結果，我們看到更好的參與度，更少的電話，正如我提到的，更高的 NPS。您會在我們最新的隊列中看到，TPA 和 ARPA 明顯更高。因此，我認為這將是一段成本之旅，我們將在未來很長一段時間內進行。而且我認為與此同時，我們也會比以往任何時候都做得更好。

Yes. Please go ahead, David.

是的。請繼續，大衛。

Yes. Just the second piece of that as well, Dan, which is, is there an inflection point you see coming in terms of transaction margin dollar growth accelerating at some point later this year or in early 2024?

是的。 Dan 也是其中的第二部分，您是否認為在今年晚些時候或 2024 年初的某個時候，交易利潤率美元增長加速會出現拐點？

Do you want to take that?

你要拿那個嗎？

Yes. So I really think about it as a multiyear journey that we're on to continue to transition the business and really drive more profitable volumes through the unbranded processing side, while at the same time accelerating the growth in branded. We're off to a really good start. Q1, we saw acceleration in the branded business. It was very broad-based in terms of what we were seeing. And we continue to see very strong growth on the unbranded side of the platform. Sequential acceleration on unbranded given its size and scale is very impressive. Given the beta business that we run, it will take some time to see what I would see an inflection point in the overall sort of TM dynamics.

是的。因此，我真的認為這是一個多年的旅程，我們將繼續轉型業務，並通過非品牌加工方面真正推動更多利潤，同時加速品牌的增長。我們的開端非常好。第一季度，我們看到品牌業務加速發展。就我們所看到的而言，它的基礎非常廣泛。我們繼續看到該平台非品牌方面的強勁增長。鑑於其規模和規模，無品牌的連續加速非常令人印象深刻。考慮到我們運行的 Beta 業務，需要一些時間才能看到我在整體 TM 動態中看到的拐點。

I would say Q1 did have some nuances to it, which included about 130 basis impact just from normalizing our credit provisions. So that's not specifically related to unbranded, branded mix. It really was sort of credit loss provisioning that impacted the TM rate as well.

我想說的是，第一季度確實有一些細微差別，其中包括將我們的信貸準備金正常化所產生的大約 130 個基點的影響。所以這與無品牌、有品牌的組合沒有特別的關係。這確實是一種影響 TM 利率的信用損失準備金。

But to your point, as we move through the year, we do continue to expect to see a continuation of the TM dynamic that's put out in Q1. There are some exciting trends that we're seeing in the business, however. So I'd say what we saw in cross-border in Q1 and the growth in that business is quite encouraging. It was the strongest quarter we had for cross-border really since Q4 of 2021. That, of course, has a higher yield to it overall. So as we start to see some of those pieces of the business pick up, that will also help.

但就您的觀點而言，隨著我們度過這一年，我們確實繼續期望看到第一季度推出的 TM 動態的延續。然而，我們在業務中看到了一些令人興奮的趨勢。所以我想說我們在第一季度的跨境業務中看到的情況以及該業務的增長非常令人鼓舞。這是我們自 2021 年第四季度以來跨境交易最強勁的一個季度。當然，總體收益率更高。因此，當我們開始看到其中一些業務的增長時，這也會有所幫助。

And then just from a TM standpoint, we did see some pressure as well in Q1 specifically on the unbranded side for PayPal. And this is not Braintree business. This is the transitioning of our unbranded processing on the PayPal side to PPCP, has created some pressure in the quarter, which we don't to be sort of ongoing as we think about how we exit the year given what our expectations are for PPCP. So we're continuing to be disciplined about the growth of the business. We do expect all these strategies to start to play out and start to help turn the overall TM profile, but I would expect it's going to take a number of quarters before we see what we would call an inflection point.

然後從 TM 的角度來看，我們確實在第一季度看到了一些壓力，特別是在 PayPal 的非品牌方面。這不是布倫特里的生意。這是我們在 PayPal 方面的無品牌處理向 PPCP 的過渡，在本季度造成了一些壓力，我們不會繼續這樣做，因為我們考慮到我們對 PPCP 的期望如何退出這一年。因此，我們將繼續對業務的增長保持紀律。我們確實希望所有這些策略開始發揮作用並開始幫助轉變整個 TM 形象，但我預計在我們看到所謂的拐點之前需要幾個季度。

Your next question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自 James Faucette 與 Morgan Stanley 的對話。

I wanted to follow up on one of the comments or topics you've mentioned quite a bit on this call, Dan, that's around engagement. I wonder if you can give some update. You've mentioned that there's been some improvement in engagement, but I'm wondering if you can give an update on those initiatives, more specifically, how that's helping engagement and conversion, especially things like advanced checkout, et cetera, and what kind of lift you're getting from that?

丹，我想跟進你在這次電話會議上多次提到的評論或主題之一，那就是參與度。我想知道你是否可以提供一些更新。您已經提到參與度有所提高，但我想知道您是否可以提供有關這些舉措的最新信息，更具體地說，這如何幫助參與度和轉化率，尤其是高級結帳等方面，以及什麼樣的你從那裡得到的提升？

And maybe give a little more detail of how we should think about the tie into some of the unbranded initiatives and if we think there can be further, at least, improvement in those engagement levels or uptake by merchants, et cetera.

也許可以更詳細地說明我們應該如何考慮與一些非品牌計劃的聯繫，以及我們是否認為至少可以進一步提高這些參與度或商家的接受度等。

Sure. So first of all, as I mentioned, kind of we've got these 3 initiatives, they all tie together, and they all lead to driving more share and volume of branded checkout. So as we do more and more on our unbranded, we put out our latest integrations into the market. And when we put out our latest integrations in the market, we take away friction, we take away latency, and we see more engagement, and a lot more checkout go through our latest integrations.

當然。所以首先，正如我提到的，我們有這 3 項舉措，它們都聯繫在一起，它們都導致推動更多的品牌結賬份額和數量。因此，隨著我們在無品牌產品上做得越來越多，我們將最新的整合產品推向市場。當我們在市場上推出最新的集成時，我們消除了摩擦，我們消除了延遲，我們看到更多的參與，更多的結賬通過我們最新的集成。

But one of the initiatives that we haven't really spent time talking about point is what we're doing on our digital wallets. So those are the 3, right, drive engagement and monthly active users and ARPA through our digital wallets; drive our checkout; drive our own brand. And they're all linked together and then keep a tight envelope on our cost structure. Those are the 4 things that we're focused on.

但是我們還沒有真正花時間談論要點的一項舉措是我們在數字錢包上所做的事情。所以這些是 3，對，通過我們的數字錢包推動參與和每月活躍用戶和 ARPA；推動我們的結賬；推動我們自己的品牌。它們都聯繫在一起，然後嚴格控制我們的成本結構。這些是我們關注的 4 件事。

In the wallet, we're making good solid progress, whether that be on our Venmo wallet, on the PayPal side of it. Look, the PayPal app is already one of the largest commerce and payments apps in the world. It's used by about 55% of our base right now. That's up about 600 basis points year-over-year. And our app users are predominantly our monthly active users and our power users. They've got 35% more ARPU. They've got 58% greater transactions for active on it. And their churn is at least 25% less than the rest of the base.

在錢包方面，無論是在我們的 Venmo 錢包上，還是在 PayPal 方面，我們都取得了良好的進展。看，PayPal 應用程序已經是世界上最大的商業和支付應用程序之一。它現在被我們大約 55% 的基地使用。同比增長約 600 個基點。我們的應用程序用戶主要是我們的月活躍用戶和高級用戶。他們的 ARPU 增加了 35%。他們的活躍交易量增加了 58%。而且他們的流失率比其他基地至少低 25%。

And the thing that I'm really pleased to see what John Kim and his team are doing is that the velocity of experimentation in our wallets now is like nothing that we've seen in quite some time. We have constant champion challenger, hypotheses going out, replacing challengers that have been overcome by the champion, and that just starts to lead to more and more engagement going through.

我很高興看到 John Kim 和他的團隊正在做的事情是，現在我們錢包中的實驗速度是我們很長一段時間以來從未見過的。我們有不斷的冠軍挑戰者，假設出局，更換被冠軍戰勝的挑戰者，這才開始導致越來越多的參與。

As I mentioned on the consumer side, we saw consumer transactions per user increase every single month in the quarter. In March, they are 400 basis points better than March a year ago. And the whole idea of the apps right now are 3 specific areas. One, upfront prepurchase, call that shopping, where it's really about discovery, saving and rewards. We introduced rewards recently. We have over 6 million monthly active users in our rewards right now. Those that are using it have an increase in the 6 million of 45% in their transactions per active. I mean these are huge numbers. We obviously need to go from 6 million to 10 million to 25 million, but that will happen over time.

正如我在消費者方面提到的那樣，我們看到本季度每個用戶的消費者交易量每個月都在增加。 3 月份，它們比一年前的 3 月份好 400 個基點。現在應用程序的整體理念是 3 個特定領域。第一，前期預購，稱之為購物，它真正關乎發現、儲蓄和獎勵。我們最近推出了獎勵。目前，我們的獎勵每月有超過 600 萬活躍用戶。那些使用它的人每次活躍的交易量增加了 600 萬 45%。我的意思是這些是巨大的數字。我們顯然需要從 600 萬增加到 1000 萬再到 2500 萬，但這會隨著時間的推移而發生。

Then we have purchase, which is all about being the most flexible, easy way to purchase. Buy Now, Pay Later really plays into that. And there, we're clearly taking share. We clearly intend to drive that. And then we have post purchase, which is like things like how do I track my packages? How do I get refunds easily? How do I put that right into my wallet? And there, I talked about this in the last earnings call, on package tracking, we're now 100% ramped in iOS. We do all the package scraping now off of Gmail. So in one place, you can see all of your PayPal purchases and non-PayPal purchases. So you can track all of that in one place.

然後我們進行採購，這是最靈活、最簡單的採購方式。現在購買，以後付款真的很重要。在那裡，我們顯然正在分享。我們顯然打算推動這一點。然後我們有售後，就像我如何跟踪我的包裹一樣？如何輕鬆獲得退款？我如何將它放入我的錢包？在那裡，我在上次財報電話會議上談到了包裹跟踪，我們現在在 iOS 中 100% 的增長。我們現在從 Gmail 中抓取所有包裹。因此，您可以在一處查看所有 PayPal 購買和非 PayPal 購買。所以你可以在一個地方跟踪所有這些。

And again, for those users that have started to do that, their app engagement is up 32%, and their transactions are up 20%. And so all of these things, James, when you think about what we're doing on just being better in checkout, driving unbranded so that we can drive better integrations going forward and what we're doing in the wallet, they all link together to really drive our MAUs, which are our most valuable customers by far and away, and they went up slightly in Q1. They are 20, 30x more valuable than just an active user out there, and to drive transactions and ARPA. So this is a flywheel.

同樣，對於那些已經開始這樣做的用戶，他們的應用程序參與度上升了 32%，他們的交易量上升了 20%。所以所有這些事情，James，當你想到我們正在做的事情只是為了更好地結賬，推動無品牌化以便我們能夠推動更好的整合向前發展以及我們在錢包中所做的事情時，它們都聯繫在一起真正推動我們的 MAU，這是我們迄今為止最有價值的客戶，他們在第一季度略有上升。他們的價值是活躍用戶的 20 倍、30 倍，並且可以推動交易和 ARPA。所以這是一個飛輪。

As you have said, it takes time to drive it. But a lot of the things we're seeing right now, the reason we are taking up our expectations for what we think our revenue growth will be, taking up kind of our EPS as well is because we're seeing distinct improvements take place in the market.

正如你所說，駕駛它需要時間。但是我們現在看到的很多事情，我們之所以接受我們對收入增長的預期，也接受我們的每股收益，是因為我們看到明顯的改善發生在市場。

We have time for one last question from the line of Bryan Keane of Deutsche Bank.

我們有時間聽取德意志銀行 Bryan Keane 的最後一個問題。

I wanted to ask about credit. Are you managing to book any different on credit given the macro and exposure to BNPL and merchants and just thinking about maybe the impact of provisions for credit losses for the rest of fiscal year '23, maybe as a result of managing the book any different?

我想問一下信用。考慮到宏觀和對 BNPL 和商家的敞口，您是否設法在信貸上進行任何不同的預訂，並且只是考慮可能對 23 財年剩餘時間的信貸損失準備金的影響，可能是由於管理賬簿有任何不同？

Yes, you bet. Thanks, Bryan. So you'll see in the Q, which will be filed tomorrow, we did increase the provisions on the PPBL portfolio, which is the PayPal Business Loans portfolio. Overall, that portfolio is about 17% of our overall receivables, so sort of a sliver of our overall book. We did widen our credit box in the middle of last year. We have seen some performance that was less strong than we would have liked, that is working its way through our system. And so we increased the provisions. We've already started to see an improvement overall, we've had in a box. I mean that's something that we'll just work its way through our systems.

是的，你打賭。謝謝，布萊恩。所以你會在明天提交的 Q 中看到，我們確實增加了 PPBL 組合的條款，即 PayPal 商業貸款組合。總的來說，該投資組合約占我們應收賬款總額的 17%，因此只占我們總賬面的一小部分。我們確實在去年年中擴大了信用額度。我們已經看到一些性能沒有我們希望的那麼強，但它正在通過我們的系統發揮作用。所以我們增加了規定。我們已經開始看到整體的改進，我們已經有了一個盒子。我的意思是，這就是我們將通過我們的系統完成的事情。

We expect delinquencies to worsen through Q2, peak in this quarter and improve throughout the remainder of the year based upon the origination strategy. But really, that piece of the book is a very small component of the overall portfolio. And I'd say, more importantly, the area that we're really growing where we're really growing, where the originations are quite strong continues to be the Buy Now, Pay Later portfolio. And there, we've seen very broad-based strength. And so that's a really important part of our strategy. It supports the improved checkout performance in our business on the branded side, and we're excited about the continued growth of that business overall.

根據發起策略，我們預計拖欠率將在第二季度惡化，在本季度達到頂峰，並在今年餘下時間有所改善。但實際上，這本書的那一部分只是整個投資組合中非常小的一部分。而且我要說的是，更重要的是，我們真正增長的領域，我們真正增長的領域，起源非常強大的領域仍然是現在購買，以後付款的產品組合。在那裡，我們看到了非常廣泛的力量。因此，這是我們戰略中非常重要的一部分。它支持我們在品牌方面提高業務的結賬性能，我們對該業務的整體持續增長感到興奮。

We did mention in the prepared remarks that our expectation is to externalize part of that portfolio during this year and work with a partner to really provide sort of longer-term sustained support for growth in that portfolio. As I say, overall, we continue to be very pleased with our credit portfolio. We've seen very good performance in -- across the book. We are seeing some normalization, which we expected to see as it relates to just sort of kind of normalization post-COVID and really getting back to what we historically seen in terms of performance.

我們在準備好的評論中確實提到，我們的期望是在今年將該投資組合的一部分外部化，並與合作夥伴合作，真正為該投資組合的增長提供某種長期持續支持。正如我所說，總體而言，我們仍然對我們的信貸組合感到非常滿意。我們在整本書中看到了非常好的表現。我們正在看到一些正常化，這是我們期望看到的，因為它與 COVID 後的某種正常化有關，並且真正回到了我們歷史上在性能方面看到的情況。

But in terms of reserve coverage, when we take a look at reserve coverage today versus when CECL started, which was the first quarter of 2020, we're actually a few hundred points -- a few hundred basis points better overall. And so the book itself continues to be quite healthy.

但就準備金覆蓋率而言，當我們看看今天的準備金覆蓋率與 CECL 開始時（即 2020 年第一季度）相比，我們實際上高了幾百個點——總體上好幾百個基點。因此，這本書本身仍然很健康。

All right. Well, I think we're at the top of the hour. So I just want to thank everybody for your great questions. Thank you for your time, and we look forward to speaking with all of you again soon. So thanks, everybody. Take care. Bye-bye.

好的。好吧，我認為我們正處於最重要的時刻。所以我只想感謝大家提出的重要問題。感謝您的寶貴時間，我們期待很快再次與大家交談。所以謝謝大家。小心。再見。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開線路。