PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Sarah, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to PayPal Holdings Earnings Conference Call for the Second Quarter 2023. (Operator Instructions)

下午好。我叫莎拉，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。現在，我歡迎大家參加 PayPal Holdings 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。（操作員說明）

I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Ms. Gabrielle Rabinovitch, Senior Vice President and Acting CFO. Please go ahead.

現在我想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，高級副總裁兼代理首席財務官 Gabrielle Rabinovitch 女士。請繼續。

Thank you, Sarah. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. Welcome to PayPal's earnings conference call for the second quarter of 2023. Joining me today on the call is Dan Schulman, our President and CEO. We're providing a slide presentation to accompany our commentary. This conference call is also being webcast, and both the presentation and call are available on our Investor Relations website.

謝謝你，莎拉。下午好，感謝您加入我們。歡迎參加 PayPal 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官丹·舒爾曼 (Dan Schulman)。我們將提供幻燈片演示來配合我們的評論。此次電話會議也進行了網絡直播，演示和電話會議均可在我們的投資者關係網站上查看。

In discussing our company's performance, we will refer to some non-GAAP measures. You can find the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the presentation accompanying this conference call. We will make forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations, forecasts and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. These statements include, without limitation, our guidance for the third quarter and full year 2023; our planning assumptions for 2023; our comments related to anticipated foreign exchange rates, operating margin, impact from our sale of loans to KKR and share repurchase activity.

在討論我們公司的業績時，我們將參考一些非公認會計準則衡量標準。您可以在本次電話會議隨附的演示文稿中找到這些非 GAAP 衡量標準與最直接可比的 GAAP 衡量標準的對賬。我們將根據我們當前的預期、預測和假設做出前瞻性陳述，並涉及風險和不確定性。這些聲明包括但不限於我們對 2023 年第三季度和全年的指導；我們對 2023 年的規劃假設；我們的評論涉及預期匯率、營業利潤率、向 KKR 出售貸款的影響以及股票回購活動。

Our actual results may differ materially from these statements. You can find more information about risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our results in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC and available on our Investor Relations website. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. All information in this presentation is as of today's date, August 2, 2023. We expressly disclaim any obligation to update this information.

我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述存在重大差異。您可以在我們向SEC 提交並可在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱的最新10-K 表格年度報告和10-Q 表格季度報告中找到有關風險、不確定性和其他可能影響我們業績的因素的更多信息。您不應過分依賴任何前瞻性陳述。本演示文稿中的所有信息均截至今天（2023 年 8 月 2 日）。我們明確表示不承擔更新此信息的義務。

With that, let me turn the call over to Dan.

接下來，讓我把電話轉給丹。

Thanks, Gabs, and thanks, everyone, for joining us on today's call. I'm proud of the PayPal team as we delivered another solid quarter. Revenues came in above the top end of our guidance, and non-GAAP EPS grew 24% to $1.16, in line with the midpoint of our guide. And we are reiterating our guidance for non-GAAP EPS and operating margin expansion for the full year.

謝謝加布斯，也謝謝大家加入我們今天的電話會議。我為 PayPal 團隊感到自豪，因為我們又實現了一個穩定的季度。收入高於我們指導的上限，非 GAAP 每股收益增長 24% 至 1.16 美元，與我們指導的中值一致。我們重申對全年非公認會計原則每股收益和營業利潤率擴張的指導。

Encouragingly, e-commerce growth appears to have stabilized in the mid-single digits, substantially above our estimates when we entered 2023. Our branded checkout volumes grew roughly in line with the industry in Q2 and accelerated to nearly 6.5% growth in the month of June. And in July, our branded checkout volume growth accelerated again to over 8%, our highest monthly growth rate since the end of the pandemic. We expect branded checkout volumes will strengthen throughout the back half of the year, supported by traction from our key strategic initiatives.

令人鼓舞的是，電子商務增長似乎已穩定在中個位數，遠高於我們進入2023 年時的預期。我們的品牌結賬量增長與第二季度的行業大致一致，並在2023 年加速至近6.5% 的增長。六月。 7 月份，我們的品牌結賬量增長再次加速至 8% 以上，這是自疫情結束以來我們的最高月度增長率。我們預計，在我們關鍵戰略舉措的推動下，品牌結賬量將在今年下半年有所增強。

Of course, we still face a fluid global macroeconomic environment. However, it is quite encouraging to see core inflation rates continue to come down. As inflation cools, we would expect to see discretionary spending rise, which we believe will support and possibly accelerate the overall growth of e-commerce spending. And as a market leader in digital payments, any uptick in e-commerce will accelerate our growth.

當然，我們仍然面臨著不穩定的全球宏觀經濟環境。然而，看到核心通脹率持續下降是相當令人鼓舞的。隨著通脹降溫，我們預計可自由支配支出將會增加，我們認為這將支持並可能加速電子商務支出的整體增長。作為數字支付的市場領導者，電子商務的任何增長都將加速我們的增長。

Revenues in Q2 grew by 8% on a currency-neutral basis to approximately $7.3 billion. It's instructive to note that we are lapping certain items that provided an outsized benefit to us in Q2 and Q3 last year. Consequently, those items pressure our revenue growth rate by approximately 1.25% in each of those quarters this year. Excluding these items, our growth in Q2 would have been between 9% and 10%.

在匯率中性的基礎上，第二季度的收入增長了 8%，達到約 73 億美元。值得注意的是，我們正在研磨某些去年第二季度和第三季度為我們帶來巨大收益的項目。因此，這些項目對我們今年每個季度的收入增長率造成約 1.25% 的壓力。排除這些項目，我們第二季度的增長將在 9% 到 10% 之間。

As we mentioned last quarter, we expect our revenue growth in the second half of the year to be roughly the same as, and given recent trends, maybe a bit better than the first half. We expect Q3 revenues to grow approximately 8% on a currency-neutral basis.

正如我們上季度提到的，我們預計下半年的收入增長將與上半年大致相同，並且考慮到最近的趨勢，可能會比上半年好一點。我們預計，在貨幣中性的基礎上，第三季度收入將增長約 8%。

I would highlight that July was a very strong start to the quarter, with currency-neutral revenue growth of 9% and TPV growth accelerating into the low teens. And for the year, we anticipate our revenue growth to be between 9% and 10% on a currency-neutral basis.

我要強調的是，7 月份是本季度的一個非常強勁的開局，貨幣中性收入增長了 9%，TPV 增長加速到了十幾歲。在貨幣中性的基礎上，我們預計今年的收入增長將在 9% 至 10% 之間。

We continue to exercise good discipline in managing operating expenses. For the quarter, non-GAAP, nontransaction-related expenses fell 11% year-over-year. As a result, our non-GAAP operating margin was 21.4%, up approximately 230 basis points from a year ago. We expect to increase our non-GAAP operating margin for the full year by at least 100 basis points.

我們在管理運營費用方面繼續遵守良好的紀律。本季度，非 GAAP、非交易相關費用同比下降 11%。因此，我們的非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 21.4%，比去年同期增長約 230 個基點。我們預計全年非 GAAP 營業利潤率將提高至少 100 個基點。

As we look ahead to the rest of 2023 and into 2024, we expect to drive meaningful productivity improvements. Our initial experiences with AI and continuing advances in our processes, infrastructure and product quality enable us to see a future where we do things better, faster and cheaper. These overall cost savings come even as we significantly invest against our 3 strategic priorities.

展望 2023 年剩餘時間和 2024 年，我們預計將推動生產力的顯著提高。我們在人工智能方面的初步經驗以及流程、基礎設施和產品質量的不斷進步使我們能夠看到未來我們能做得更好、更快、更便宜。儘管我們針對 3 個戰略重點進行了大量投資，但總體成本節省還是實現了。

We know exactly what we need to do as we look towards 2024. And as you can see in our results, we are beginning to see the fruits of our labor. We understand that over the medium to long term, we need to deliver growth in our transaction margin dollars to ensure we sustainably grow our earnings. And we are beginning to see clear signs that our initiatives will yield notable traction against that objective over the next several quarters.

展望 2024 年，我們確切地知道需要做什麼。正如您在我們的結果中看到的那樣，我們開始看到我們的勞動成果。我們知道，從中長期來看，我們需要實現交易保證金的增長，以確保我們的收入可持續增長。我們開始看到明顯的跡象，表明我們的舉措將在未來幾個季度對這一目標產生顯著的推動力。

As I mentioned, we expect our top line to accelerate to low double-digit growth by Q4. We expect transaction margin dollars to increase while our operating expenses continue to create significant leverage. That, in connection with our share buybacks, enables us to target low to mid-teens EPS growth for the remainder of 2023, even as we begin to lap the increases we enjoyed on our interest income.

正如我所提到的，我們預計到第四季度我們的營收將加速至兩位數的低增長。我們預計交易保證金將會增加，而我們的運營費用將繼續創造顯著的槓桿作用。這與我們的股票回購相結合，使我們能夠在 2023 年剩餘時間內將每股收益增長目標定為低至中雙位數，即使我們開始享受利息收入的增長。

I'd like to now turn to our 3 strategic priorities in which we are investing our resources and energy: branded checkout, our PSC merchant solutions and our digital wallets. As I've mentioned in the past, all 3 of these are critical and interrelated. They are essential for us to increase our share of the e-commerce market as well as accelerate our margin dollar growth.

我現在想談談我們正在投入資源和精力的 3 個戰略重點：品牌結賬、我們的 PSC 商家解決方案和我們的數字錢包。正如我過去提到的，所有這三個因素都是至關重要且相互關聯的。它們對於我們增加電子商務市場份額以及加速利潤增長至關重要。

As we discussed in our June investor meeting, we are meaningfully accelerating new product innovations into the market, scaling our A/B testing and significantly improving our time to market. We are now consistently delivering against our road map on schedule. This is the result of significant investments in our platform infrastructure and tools and enhanced set of measurements and performance indicators, hiring new talent and early successes using AI in our software development process.

正如我們在 6 月份的投資者會議上討論的那樣，我們正在有意義地加速新產品創新進入市場，擴大我們的 A/B 測試並顯著縮短我們的上市時間。我們現在始終如一地按計劃交付我們的路線圖。這是我們對平台基礎設施和工具進行大量投資、增強測量和績效指標、聘用新人才以及在軟件開發過程中使用人工智能取得早期成功的結果。

We continue to ramp our test velocity with more than 300 experiments launched across our product experiences in the first half of the year. Every successful test leads to incremental customer benefits. And the cumulative effect of those changes leads to noticeable improvements in our key metrics, including the gains we are seeing in branded checkout growth.

今年上半年，我們在產品體驗中啟動了 300 多個實驗，繼續提高測試速度。每一次成功的測試都會帶來增量的客戶利益。這些變化的累積效應導致我們的關鍵指標顯著改善，包括我們在品牌結賬增長中看到的收益。

For instance, our buy now, pay later traction has meaningfully accelerated with the introduction of preapproved amounts to our consumers. Our work in onboarding and onboarding new experiences has driven new monthly cohorts with higher engagement and lifetime value. In this month, we are expanding the rollout of passkeys in the U.S. and Europe, which will greatly simplify the branded checkout log-in experience and drive improved authorization rates that will further extend our lead over our competitors.

例如，隨著向消費者引入預先批准的金額，我們的“先買後付”的吸引力顯著加快。我們在入職和新體驗方面的工作推動了每月新增的群體具有更高的參與度和終身價值。本月，我們將在美國和歐洲擴大密鑰的推出，這將大大簡化品牌結賬登錄體驗並提高授權率，從而進一步擴大我們相對於競爭對手的領先優勢。

Our goal is to continually close the gap in our log-in and checkout experiences every quarter, and to be equal to or better than any competitor within the next year. We simultaneously aim to drive differentiated wallet experiences across both PayPal and Venmo. We believe that only those companies with unique and scaled data sets will be able to fully utilize the power of AI to drive actionable insights and differentiated value propositions for their customers.

我們的目標是不斷縮小每個季度登錄和結賬體驗方面的差距，並在明年內達到或優於任何競爭對手。我們同時致力於推動 PayPal 和 Venmo 之間差異化的錢包體驗。我們相信，只有那些擁有獨特且規模化數據集的公司才能充分利用人工智能的力量，為客戶提供可行的見解和差異化的價值主張。

We are already experimenting internally with an AI-driven PayPal Assistant. We envision that a version of this will be part of our consumer app, and we plan to introduce it later this year.

我們已經在內部試驗人工智能驅動的 PayPal 助手。我們預計該版本將成為我們消費者應用程序的一部分，併計劃在今年晚些時候推出。

We continue to see impressive traction in our PSP business, with our growth rates nearly 30% on a currency-neutral basis. Many of the largest tech companies in the world are now either using our Braintree capabilities or are in deep strategic negotiations with us to do so. We are in the process of rolling out high-margin, value-added services, expanding internationally and making noticeable progress with in-person payments. And we continue to receive exceptional interest in our next-generation checkout solution, which will leverage the scale of our network vault, our deep understanding of our two-sided network and the development of proprietary AI models.

我們的 PSP 業務繼續保持令人印象深刻的吸引力，在貨幣中性的基礎上增長率接近 30%。世界上許多最大的科技公司現在要么正在使用我們的 Braintree 功能，要么正在與我們進行深入的戰略談判。我們正在推出高利潤的增值服務，進行國際擴張，並在面對面支付方面取得顯著進展。我們繼續對我們的下一代結賬解決方案產生濃厚的興趣，該解決方案將利用我們網絡庫的規模、我們對雙邊網絡的深刻理解以及專有人工智能模型的開發。

I couldn't be more pleased with the initial rollout of PayPal Complete Payments, our PSP merchant solution for channel partners in the SMB market. We are seeing tremendous interest in the platform with a substantial pipeline of completed sales and a backlog of deals that continues to grow. Importantly, our major channel partners are enthusiastic about its capabilities. We have already implemented PPCP with leading channel partners like Adobe, Lightspeed, Recurly, Shift4, Shopify, Stax Payments, UltraCart, Wix and WooCommerce with more than 25 additional channel partners scheduled to be live by the end of the year. This not only demonstrates the strength of our platform capabilities, but will also enable a meaningful number of SMB merchants to access our latest checkout experiences.

我對 PayPal Complete Payments 的首次推出感到無比高興，這是我們為中小企業市場渠道合作夥伴提供的 PSP 商家解決方案。我們看到人們對該平台產生了巨大的興趣，該平台已完成大量銷售，並且積壓的交易仍在持續增長。重要的是，我們的主要渠道合作夥伴對其功能充滿熱情。我們已經與 Adob​​e、Lightspeed、Recurly、Shift4、Shopify、Stax Payments、UltraCart、Wix 和 WooCommerce 等領先渠道合作夥伴實施了 PPCP，另外還有超過 25 個渠道合作夥伴計劃於今年年底上線。這不僅展示了我們平台功能的實力，而且還將使大量中小型商家能夠獲得我們最新的結賬體驗。

There is a remarkable sense of energy, excitement and enthusiasm among our leadership teams as we see clear and distinct signs of reinvigorated success in the market. We are now able to take advantage of many of the investments we have made over the past years to deliver a best-in-class experience for our customers, leveraging a modern infrastructure and our scale in the age of AI.

當我們看到市場重振成功的明顯跡象時，我們的領導團隊充滿了活力、興奮和熱情。我們現在能夠利用過去幾年所做的許多投資，利用現代基礎設施和人工智能時代的規模，為客戶提供一流的體驗。

We have successfully recruited a large number of external talent to complement our internal teams in both AI and machine learning as well as throughout our product, engineering and technology groups in order to build upon our success and maximize our opportunity.

我們已成功招募了大量外部人才，以補充我們在人工智能和機器學習方面以及整個產品、工程和技術團隊的內部團隊，以鞏固我們的成功並最大限度地利用我們的機會。

I'd like to end my remarks talking about our CEO succession plan. We are in the very final stages of the process with several outstanding candidates, all of whom are highly qualified and excited to lead PayPal as we go into our next chapter of growth. I'm eager to welcome PayPal's next CEO, to work with them on a seamless onboarding and to support them in the amazing PayPal team as I transition to my role on the Board.

我想結束我的發言，談談我們的首席執行官繼任計劃。我們正處於這一過程的最後階段，有幾位優秀的候選人，他們都非常合格，並且很高興能夠領導 PayPal，讓我們進入下一個增長篇章。我熱切歡迎 PayPal 的下一任首席執行官，與他們一起順利入職，並在我過渡到董事會職位時為他們在出色的 PayPal 團隊中提供支持。

As you can hopefully tell, we have a lot of energy and confidence that we are on the right path with good momentum. Many of the headwinds we faced are now turning into tailwinds. We are executing with a high degree of excellence. We have a firm handle on our business model and can point to numerous successes already making a real difference in the market, which will only continue to compound over time. PayPal is in an increasingly strong position, and we are poised to deliver for our customers and our shareholders.

正如您所希望的那樣，我們充滿活力和信心，我們正走在正確的道路上，勢頭良好。我們面臨的許多逆風現在正在變成順風。我們正在以高度卓越的方式執行。我們對我們的商業模式有著堅定的把握，並且可以指出許多成功已經在市場上產生了真正的影響，並且隨著時間的推移，這種影響只會繼續複合。 PayPal 的地位日益強大，我們已準備好為我們的客戶和股東提供服務。

Thank you. And with that, let me turn the call over to Gabs.

謝謝。接下來，讓我把電話轉給加布斯。

Thanks, Dan. I'd like to start by thanking the entire PayPal team for their continued commitment to serving our customers and executing our priorities. PayPal delivered another solid quarter in a dynamic environment. We're reporting revenue at the high end of our guidance range and earnings per share consistent with our expectations. Our results are tracking with the guidance we gave for the full year and reflect steady progress against our long-term growth aspirations.

謝謝，丹。首先，我要感謝整個 PayPal 團隊持續致力於服務我們的客戶並執行我們的優先事項。貝寶 (PayPal) 在充滿活力的環境中又實現了穩健的季度業績。我們報告的收入處於指導範圍的高端，每股收益符合我們的預期。我們的業績與我們全年的指導一致，反映出我們在實現長期增長目標方面取得的穩步進展。

We continue to invest in our key initiatives, while demonstrating discipline in delivering on our operating expense commitments. In June, we were delighted to share more about our long-term strategic plan and product road maps at our investment community meeting. Importantly, the product launches we discussed are on track, and we continue to gain conviction in our ability to accelerate our branded checkout volumes and drive greater profitability across our PSP services.

我們繼續投資於我們的關鍵舉措，同時在履行我們的運營費用承諾方面表現出紀律性。六月，我們很高興在投資界會議上分享更多有關我們的長期戰略計劃和產品路線圖的信息。重要的是，我們討論的產品發布正在步入正軌，我們繼續堅信我們有能力加快品牌結賬量並提高 PSP 服務的盈利能力。

During the quarter, we were pleased to announce a multiyear agreement to sell both our existing European buy now, pay later receivables as well as future originations to KKR. During my remarks, I will discuss the impact of this externalization on our financial results. We have also included additional details in our investor update presentation.

在本季度，我們很高興地宣布了一項多年期協議，將我們現有的歐洲“先買後付”應收賬款以及未來的應收賬款出售給 KKR。在我的發言中，我將討論這種外部化對我們財務業績的影響。我們還在投資者更新演示中提供了更多詳細信息。

Before discussing our outlook for the remainder of the year, I'd like to highlight our second quarter performance. As Dan mentioned, revenue increased 8% on a currency-neutral basis and 7% at spot to $7.3 billion. Transaction revenue grew 5% to $6.6 billion, driven primarily by Braintree and PayPal-branded checkout.

在討論我們對今年剩餘時間的展望之前，我想強調一下我們第二季度的業績。正如 Dan 提到的，在不考慮貨幣因素的情況下，收入增長了 8%，即期收入增長了 7%，達到 73 億美元。交易收入增長 5%，達到 66 億美元，主要由 Braintree 和 PayPal 品牌結賬推動。

Headwinds to growth in the quarter included the lapping of $75 million in contractual compensation from merchants last year, which was de minimis this year; $72 million less in hedge gains relative to Q2 last year; and the impact from migrating and consolidating legacy PayPal payment services. Other value-added services revenue grew 37% to $731 million. This performance was predominantly due to increased interest income on customer store balances and, to a lesser extent, revenue growth from consumer credit products.

本季度增長面臨的阻力包括去年商家支付的 7500 萬美元合同報酬，而今年這一數字微乎其微；與去年第二季度相比，對沖收益減少了 7200 萬美元；以及遷移和整合傳統 PayPal 支付服務的影響。其他增值服務收入增長 37%，達到 7.31 億美元。這一業績主要歸因於客戶商店餘額利息收入的增加，以及消費信貸產品收入的增長。

In the second quarter, U.S. revenue grew 9% and international revenue increased 5%. On a currency-neutral basis, international revenue increased 7%, accelerating sequentially and year-over-year. Transaction take rate declined 11 basis points to 1.74%. Approximately 2/3 of this decline was driven by a decline in foreign exchange fees, in part driven by lower currency volatility, a decline in gains from foreign currency hedges, which are recorded as international transaction revenue, and the headwind from lapping elevated contractual assessments from merchants last year.

第二季度，美國收入增長 9%，國際收入增長 5%。在貨幣中性的基礎上，國際收入增長 7%，環比和同比增長。交易接受率下降 11 個基點至 1.74%。其中約 2/3 的下降是由外匯費用下降造成的，部分原因是貨幣波動性降低、外幣對沖收益下降（記錄為國際交易收入）以及合同評估上升帶來的不利影響去年從商家那裡得到的。

While merchant mix continued to pressure our branded checkout take rate, the second quarter was an improvement from Q1. Our total take rate declined 6 basis points to 1.94%, affected by the same factors as transaction take rate. Transaction expense as a rate of TPV came in at 94 basis points, 4 basis points higher than Q2 last year. This increase was primarily driven by growth in Braintree volumes, partially offset by rate benefits in core PayPal and Venmo. Overall, transaction expense dollars grew 16%.

雖然商家組合繼續對我們的品牌結賬率構成壓力，但第二季度較第一季度有所改善。受到與交易接受率相同因素的影響，我們的總接受率下降了 6 個基點至 1.94%。交易費用佔 TPV 的比率為 94 個基點，比去年第二季度高 4 個基點。這一增長主要是由 Braintree 交易量的增長推動的，但部分被核心 PayPal 和 Venmo 的利率優勢所抵消。總體而言，交易費用增長了 16%。

Transaction loss at a rate of TPV was 8 basis points for the quarter, a 3.6 basis point improvement versus last year. Transaction loss dollars declined 25%. The decrease this year was primarily due to an atypical merchant insolvency last year, which drove a sizable loss in the second quarter, with no comparable exposure this year. Our ongoing risk mitigation activities and mix of volumes also contributed to this performance.

本季度按 TPV 計算的交易損失為 8 個基點，比去年提高了 3.6 個基點。交易損失（美元）下降了 25%。今年的下降主要是由於去年非典型的商業破產導致第二季度出現巨額虧損，而今年沒有可比的風險敞口。我們正在進行的風險緩解活動和數量組合也促成了這一業績。

Credit losses were $112 million or 3 basis points as a rate of TPV. On a dollar basis, credit losses increased 65%. Provisions in the quarter were driven by a build of $146 million, partially offset by a $33 million reserve release from the reclassification of our European buy now, pay later portfolio to held for sale from held for investment.

信用損失為 1.12 億美元，相當於 TPV 的 3 個基點。按美元計算，信貸損失增加了 65%。本季度的撥備是由1.46 億美元的增加推動的，部分被我們的歐洲“先買後付”投資組合從“持有投資”重新分類為“持有待售”而釋放的3300 萬美元準備金所抵消。

The operating income benefit from this release of reserves was entirely offset by the fair value discount on the portfolio classified as held for sale. The increased provisioning resulted from increased expected losses in our PayPal business loans portfolio as well as growth in our U.S. Pay Later portfolio. Like the broader industry, we're seeing a normalization of our credit portfolio to pre-COVID delinquency levels across our consumer and PayPal Working Capital portfolio.

此次釋放準備金帶來的營業收入收益完全被分類為持有待售投資組合的公允價值折扣所抵消。撥備增加的原因是我們的 PayPal 商業貸款組合的預期損失增加以及我們的美國稍後付款組合的增長。與更廣泛的行業一樣，我們的消費者和 PayPal 營運資金投資組合的信貸投資組合已正常化至新冠疫情前的拖欠水平。

That said, we have seen some deterioration in our business loans portfolio. This portfolio represents less than 15% of our overall net credit receivables. And as we discussed last quarter, we have taken remedial actions to address this performance. We've tightened originations and have already seen improvement in new cohorts. We'll be managing the book with similar rigor as we move through the remainder of the year.

也就是說，我們的商業貸款組合有所惡化。該投資組合占我們整體應收信貸淨額的不到 15%。正如我們上季度討論的那樣，我們已採取補救措施來解決這一問題。我們已經收緊了起源，並且已經看到新群體的改善。在今年剩下的時間裡，我們將以同樣嚴格的方式管理這本書。

As a result of designating $1.9 billion in pay later receivables to assets held for sale, we ended Q2 with $5.5 billion in net credit receivables, a 3.5% decline year-over-year and a 26% decline sequentially. The decline in receivables due to held-for-sale accounting also contributed to an increase in our reserve coverage ratio. This ratio increased to 10% from 7.8% in Q1.

由於將 19 億美元的稍後付款應收賬款指定為待售資產，第二季度結束時，我們的淨信貸應收賬款為 55 億美元，同比下降 3.5%，環比下降 26%。持有待售會計導致的應收賬款下降也導致我們的準備金覆蓋率上升。這一比率從第一季度的 7.8% 上升至 10%。

In the aggregate, volume-based expenses increased 13% in Q2 relative to an increase of 30% in the second quarter of 2022. Transaction margin dollars grew 1% to $3.3 billion, and transaction margin was 45.9%. While our transaction margin declined in the quarter, the rate of decline slowed considerably from both Q1 and the second quarter of last year, and we're executing on our strategy to grow transaction margin dollars.

總體而言，第二季度基於數量的費用增長了 13%，而 2022 年第二季度增長了 30%。交易保證金增長了 1%，達到 33 億美元，交易保證金為 45.9%。雖然我們的交易利潤率在本季度有所下降，但與去年第一季度和第二季度相比，下降速度明顯放緩，我們正在執行增加交易利潤率的戰略。

We're encouraged by the progress we're making against our longer-term initiatives that will support improved transaction margin performance over time. Q2 marked the third quarter in a row that we've delivered meaningful expansion in our operating margin on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis. Ongoing discipline in managing our cost structure allowed us to more than offset transaction margin compression with operating expense leverage.

我們對長期計劃所取得的進展感到鼓舞，這些計劃將支持隨著時間的推移提高交易保證金績效。第二季度標誌著我們連續第三個季度在 GAAP 和非 GAAP 基礎上實現了營業利潤率的大幅增長。管理成本結構的持續紀律使我們能夠通過運營費用槓桿來抵消交易利潤壓縮。

On a non-GAAP basis, nontransaction-related operating expenses declined 11%, with reductions across each of our principal operating expense categories contributing significant leverage. Strong expense performance resulted in 20% growth in non-GAAP operating income to $1.6 billion. This is the highest growth in operating income that we've delivered in more than 2 years.

按非公認會計準則計算，非交易相關運營費用下降了 11%，我們每個主要運營費用類別的減少都貢獻了顯著的槓桿作用。強勁的費用表現導致非 GAAP 營業收入增長 20%，達到 16 億美元。這是我們兩年多以來營業收入的最高增幅。

Non-GAAP operating margin expanded 228 basis points to 21.4%, which was slightly below the guidance we gave for the quarter. This is principally attributable to our credit portfolio, where we earned less revenue than expected and increased loss provisions. For the second quarter, non-GAAP EPS increased 24% to $1.16, which was the midpoint of our guidance range.

非 GAAP 運營利潤率擴大 228 個基點至 21.4%，略低於我們為本季度給出的指引。這主要歸因於我們的信貸投資組合，我們的收入低於預期，並且損失撥備增加。第二季度，非 GAAP 每股收益增長 24% 至 1.16 美元，這是我們指導範圍的中點。

We ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and investments of $14.4 billion. The net cash outflows for originations of loans held for sale reduced cash flows from operations by $1.2 billion in the quarter, resulting in free cash flow for the quarter of negative $350 million.

本季度結束時，我們的現金、現金等價物和投資為 144 億美元。持有待售貸款產生的淨現金流出使該季度的運營現金流減少了 12 億美元，導致該季度的自由現金流為負 3.5 億美元。

Later this year, when the sale of the European BNPL back book closes, the proceeds will be recognized in cash flows from operations and offset this decline. So while the timing of accounting treatment will affect the quarterly profile of our free cash flow, there is no change to our outlook for the year, and we continue to expect to generate approximately $5 billion in free cash flow.

今年晚些時候，當歐洲 BNPL 背書出售結束時，收益將在運營現金流中確認，並抵消這一下降。因此，雖然會計處理的時間將影響我們自由現金流的季度概況，但我們對今年的展望沒有變化，我們仍然預計將產生約 50 億美元的自由現金流。

In the quarter, we completed $1.5 billion in share repurchases. For the full year, we now expect to allocate approximately $5 billion to our buyback program. Our recently announced credit externalization will help optimize our balance sheet and improve our capital efficiency. Given our desire to return capital to shareholders and the confidence we have in our business, we've taken a more aggressive approach to share repurchases. Since the end of 2021, our diluted share count has declined 6%.

本季度，我們完成了 15 億美元的股票回購。我們現在預計全年將分配約 50 億美元用於我們的回購計劃。我們最近宣布的信貸外部化將有助於優化我們的資產負債表並提高我們的資本效率。考慮到我們向股東返還資本的願望以及對我們業務的信心，我們採取了更積極的方式進行股票回購。自 2021 年底以來，我們的稀釋後股份數量下降了 6%。

I would now like to discuss our outlook for the remainder of 2023. As Dan shared, based on our results through the first half of the year, we're reaffirming our guidance for the year for non-GAAP operating margin expansion and earnings per share. In the aggregate, for the first and second quarters of 2023, we've delivered revenue growth of approximately 9% on a currency-neutral basis.

我現在想討論一下我們對 2023 年剩餘時間的展望。正如 Dan 所說，根據我們上半年的業績，我們重申了今年對非 GAAP 營業利潤率擴張和每股收益的指導。總的來說，在貨幣中性的基礎上，2023 年第一季度和第二季度我們的收入增長了約 9%。

We expect revenue growth in the back half of the year to be in line with this performance, if not slightly ahead, given the momentum we're seeing in the business. In addition, we're on track to meet our expense guidance for the year and are committed to delivering at least 100 basis points of non-GAAP operating margin improvement. We also continue to expect to deliver non-GAAP earnings per share of approximately $4.95, representing 20% growth from 2022.

考慮到我們在業務中看到的勢頭，我們預計今年下半年的收入增長將與這一業績保持一致，甚至略微領先。此外，我們有望實現今年的費用指導，並致力於實現非 GAAP 營業利潤率至少提高 100 個基點。我們還繼續預計非 GAAP 每股收益約為 4.95 美元，較 2022 年增長 20%。

We're reiterating our full year guidance while absorbing incremental pressure from our credit portfolio, given strengthening business performance driven by checkout initiatives and our ongoing realization of productivity gains. For the third quarter, we expect revenue to grow approximately 8% on both a spot and currency-neutral basis to approximately $7.4 billion at current spot rates. In addition, we expect non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of $1.22 to $1.24, representing growth of approximately 13.5% at the midpoint of the range.

鑑於結帳舉措推動業務績效不斷增強以及我們不斷實現生產率提高，我們重申了全年指引，同時吸收了信貸投資組合帶來的增量壓力。對於第三季度，我們預計按即期匯率和匯率中性計算，收入將增長約 8%，按當前即期匯率計算，達到約 74 億美元。此外，我們預計非 GAAP 每股收益將在 1.22 美元至 1.24 美元之間，即該範圍中值增長約 13.5%。

In summary, we're proud of our solid operating results this quarter. PayPal's unique competitive advantages, including our portfolio of differentiated assets and our global scale and ubiquity continue to drive us forward. We're committed to investing in our core strengths and building PayPal for the future. And we're guided by our relentless focus on creating the best possible experiences for our customers.

總之，我們對本季度穩健的運營業績感到自豪。 PayPal 獨特的競爭優勢，包括我們的差異化資產組合以及我們的全球規模和無處不在，繼續推動我們前進。我們致力於投資我們的核心優勢並為未來打造 PayPal。我們堅持不懈地致力於為客戶創造最佳體驗。

Our revenue momentum and customer engagement trends position us well to achieve our growth objectives this year and beyond. Given the uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment, we remain focused on managing the things we can control and allocating capital with discipline to ensure we optimize for long-term value creation and resiliency.

我們的收入勢頭和客戶參與趨勢使我們能夠很好地實現今年及以後的增長目標。鑑於宏觀經濟環境的不確定性，我們仍然專注於管理我們可以控制的事情，並嚴格配置資本，以確保我們優化長期價值創造和彈性。

And with that, Dan and I are happy to take your questions. Sarah, please go ahead.

丹和我很高興回答您的問題。莎拉，請繼續。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang of JPMorgan.

（操作員指令） 您的第一個問題來自摩根大通的黃天欽。

I want to ask a question on e-commerce health. And Dan, I know you talked about it upfront. We're just getting a lot of questions on the e-commerce industry in general. So you mentioned inflation easing should help. I'm curious about other trends like shift from services to goods, like our economists are talking about, which I think would also be a tailwind for you versus the headwind previously. Is this something you're seeing? Or maybe is that changing how you're thinking about the second half versus a quarter ago? It seems like there's some room for upsetting your outlook here given the exit growth rate and what you talked about for July.

我想問一個關於電子商務健康的問題。丹，我知道你事先談到過。我們剛剛收到了很多有關電子商務行業的總體問題。所以你提到通脹寬鬆應該會有所幫助。我對其他趨勢很好奇，比如從服務轉向商品，就像我們的經濟學家正在談論的那樣，我認為這對你來說也將是一種順風，而不是之前的逆風。這是你看到的東西嗎？或者也許這會改變你對下半年與四分之一前的看法？考慮到退出增長率和您談論的 7 月份內容，似乎有一些空間會擾亂您的前景。

Yes. Thanks, Tien-Tsin. It's great to hear your voice, and thanks for the question. Look, I think the story of the quarter is really the sort of the shape of the results inside the quarter and then the strong exit as we went into July and seeing July results. In our view right now, we are beginning to see an inflection point. We're seeing our results on a slightly different trajectory, for sure. And as I mentioned in my remarks, we're clearly seeing a lot of headwinds begin to shift towards tailwinds.

是的。謝謝田津。很高興聽到你的聲音，感謝你的提問。聽著，我認為這個季度的故事實際上是季度內結果的形狀，然後是我們進入 7 月並看到 7 月結果時的強勁退出。我們現在認為，我們開始看到一個拐點。當然，我們看到的結果略有不同。正如我在發言中提到的，我們清楚地看到許多逆風開始轉向順風。

E-commerce is definitely one of those. We see e-commerce growth accelerating. We think it is at least in the mid-single digits right now. That's substantially above what we thought when we entered the year where we thought it might be flat year-over-year. And I would say we've got a slight bias that, that will continue to accelerate.

電子商務絕對是其中之一。我們看到電子商務增長加速。我們認為目前至少處於個位數中間。這大大高於我們進入今年時的預期，當時我們認為該數字可能與去年同期持平。我想說的是，我們有一個輕微的偏見，即這種情況將繼續加速。

You've got a range out there from low 0 to high at 10%. We think it's probably right in the middle of that, and we think it is being driven by a shift from travel and services into goods, into fashion, more coming into retail pieces of that. And clearly, as inflation cools, we would expect to see more discretionary spend rebound, and that will help drive e-commerce. So one of the headwinds we faced was e-commerce growth slowing. Now it's accelerating again, and that clearly will be meaningful for us.

範圍從低 0 到高 10%。我們認為它可能正處於中間階段，我們認為它是由旅行和服務向商品、時尚、更多進入零售領域的轉變所推動的。顯然，隨著通脹降溫，我們預計可自由支配支出將出現更多反彈，這將有助於推動電子商務。因此，我們面臨的阻力之一是電子商務增長放緩。現在它再次加速，這顯然對我們有意義。

We're also seeing improvements, as Gabs mentioned, in cross-border. That's beginning to accelerate again. That's obviously a very meaningful thing for us because, one, our value proposition is perfect for cross-border. Consumers buying from merchants that they don't really know, but they trust PayPal to make sure that, that payment will be protected for them. It's obviously extremely high-margin business for us, and that seems to be accelerating nicely right now.

正如加布斯提到的，我們還看到跨境方面的改進。這又開始加速。這對我們來說顯然是一件非常有意義的事情，因為，第一，我們的價值主張非常適合跨境。消費者從他們並不真正了解的商家那裡購買商品，但他們相信 PayPal 會確保他們的付款受到保護。這對我們來說顯然是利潤率極高的業務，而且現在似乎正在加速發展。

PPCP, which was a really important introduction for us for numerous reasons, could not have a better reception in the market. We've got tremendous momentum there. Braintree continues to go from strength to strength, and we're seeing a lot of our value-added services now start to take hold. I can talk about some of that later in the call if somebody wants to ask about that.

由於多種原因，PPCP 對我們來說是一個非常重要的介紹，但在市場上卻沒有得到更好的接受。我們在那裡擁有巨大的動力。 Braintree 不斷發展壯大，我們看到我們的許多增值服務現在開始佔據主導地位。如果有人想問這個問題，我可以在稍後的電話中討論其中的一些內容。

And obviously, branded checkout is accelerating. That 8%, it's the highest we've seen since the end of the pandemic. And we continue to expect to see that strengthen as we go through the year as many of our initiatives are really taking hold in the last quarter. We've got another 200-plus experiments that are going to happen in Q3. And so that's all adding to momentum.

顯然，品牌結賬正在加速。 8%，這是自大流行結束以來我們看到的最高水平。我們繼續期望看到這一點在這一年中得到加強，因為我們的許多舉措在上個季度真正落地。我們將在第三季度進行另外 200 多項實驗。所以這一切都增加了勢頭。

And I guess at the end of the day, what that's adding up to when we look at our Net Promoter Score, we're now at a 7-year high in that. And so there's clearly a lot of momentum in the business right now, and we just want to double down on that. So we do obviously feel a lot better today than we did 90 days ago. But I think that's just going to continue when you ask that same question a quarter from now.

我想歸根結底，當我們查看我們的淨推薦值時，我們現在處於 7 年來的最高點。因此，目前該業務顯然有很大的發展勢頭，我們只是想加倍努力。所以我們今天顯然比 90 天前感覺好多了。但我認為，當你在四分之一後問同樣的問題時，這種情況將會繼續下去。

Your next question comes from the line of Darrin Peller with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Darrin Peller。

Revenue growth was obviously sound, but we still saw transaction profit dollars a little less pronounced versus revenue. I think it actually may have decreased a bit year-over-year. And so Gabrielle, I know you talked about some one-time grow-overs and hedging differences. And I'm sure the mix between branded, unbranded continues to have an impact given the growth of Braintree. But if you could just help us understand the moving parts in the quarter and the trends in the second half as far as gross profit or transaction profit growth goes, that would be great.

收入增長顯然是穩健的，但我們仍然看到交易利潤與收入相比略有不那麼明顯。我認為實際上可能同比有所下降。加布里埃爾，我知道你談到了一些一次性的種植和對沖差異。我確信，鑑於 Braintree 的發展，品牌與非品牌之間的混合將繼續產生影響。但如果您能幫助我們了解本季度的動態以及下半年毛利潤或交易利潤增長的趨勢，那就太好了。

You bet, you bet, Darrin. For the quarter, transaction margin dollars grew 1%, which is essentially in line with Q1. That said, when we look at the underlying performance of our business, we're very encouraged by the stronger results we're seeing. In my prepared remarks, I called out several items that created headwinds to growth in the quarter due to lapping. In addition, we actually had some benefits that we saw in the quarter as well from the release of reserves from held-for-sale reclassification as well as from lapping that large merchant exposure last year.

你打賭，你打賭，達林。本季度交易保證金增長 1%，與第一季度基本一致。也就是說，當我們審視我們業務的基本業績時，我們對所看到的更強勁的業績感到非常鼓舞。在我準備好的發言中，我指出了由於搭接而對本季度增長造成阻力的幾項內容。此外，我們實際上在本季度看到了一些好處，包括持有待售重新分類釋放的準備金以及去年大量商業敞口的釋放。

And so when we adjust for all these items, both the benefits and the drags, on a more normalized basis, we actually see transaction margin dollars in the quarter growing several points faster than the reported 1%. And what we're really encouraged by is the strengthening profile of the business. We're actually starting to see the benefits of our initiatives. As we get through some of the noise from lapping, we do expect to see improving transaction profit growth.

因此，當我們在更正常化的基礎上調整所有這些項目（包括收益和阻力）時，我們實際上看到本季度的交易利潤率增長比報告的 1% 快幾個百分點。真正令我們感到鼓舞的是該業務的實力不斷增強。我們實際上開始看到我們的舉措的好處。當我們克服了研磨帶來的一些噪音時，我們確實預計交易利潤增長將會改善。

When we think about the back half, in Q3, we'll still see some pressure on transaction margin performance. In Q4, we expect to see an improvement. And then over the longer term, our TM profile in the future will certainly be benefited by the acceleration in branded checkout, by e-commerce acceleration, by the improved cross-border trends that Dan referred to, as well as from the value-added services that we're adding on the PSP side.

當我們考慮後半段時，在第三季度，我們仍然會看到交易保證金表現面臨一些壓力。在第四季度，我們預計會看到改善。從長遠來看，我們未來的TM形象肯定會受益於品牌結賬的加速、電子商務的加速、丹提到的跨境趨勢的改善以及增值。我們在 PSP 端添加的服務。

That's really helpful. So it sounds like some of these initiatives are third, fourth quarter events, but they could move the needle starting them.

這真的很有幫助。因此，聽起來其中一些舉措是第三、第四季度的活動，但它們可能會推動這些舉措的啟動。

We expect to exit the year in a much stronger position from a TM trajectory than where we are right now.

我們預計今年結束時的 TM 軌跡將比現在處於更有利的位置。

Your next question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 James Faucette。

I wanted to follow up on Darrin's question. I know that unbranded seems to be a drag or dilutive to margins right now overall, which is a little bit surprising given just kind of how margin structure tends to be throughout the industry. I know you've talked a little bit in the past about adding incremental services to unbranded that could improve that structural margin component in unbranded. Can you talk a little bit about what that may look like, timing, and if any of those initiatives are -- will play a role in improving the transaction margin that you're looking at for the latter part of this year?

我想跟進達林的問題。我知道，目前整體而言，無品牌似乎會拖累或稀釋利潤，考慮到整個行業的利潤結構往往如此，這有點令人驚訝。我知道您過去曾談到過向無品牌公司添加增量服務，這可以改善無品牌公司的結構性利潤組成部分。您能否談談這可能會是什麼樣子、時間安排，以及這些舉措是否會在提高您預計今年下半年的交易利潤方面發揮作用？

Yes, I'll take a crack at that, James. Thanks for the question. Our PSP business does continue to go from strength to strength. As we talked about our overall, TPV was nearly 30% in the quarter. And that's despite, as Gabrielle mentioned, deprecating some of our older PSP flows, things coming off of our PayPal Pro. We actually migrated about $5 billion of TPV from our legacy stacks onto PPCP in this past quarter. And so it's a bit of a drag in the quarter, but we're going to be done with that by the end of the year.

是的，我會嘗試一下，詹姆斯。謝謝你的提問。我們的 PSP 業務確實在不斷發展壯大。當我們談論我們的整體時，TPV 在本季度接近 30%。儘管如此，正如 Gabrielle 提到的，我們棄用了一些舊的 PSP 流程，以及來自 PayPal Pro 的東西。實際上，在上個季度，我們將大約 50 億美元的 TPV 從我們的遺留堆棧遷移到了 PPCP。因此，這對本季度來說有點拖累，但我們將在年底前解決這個問題。

And we continue to win marquee accounts in the business, whether that be booking.com, Meta, Allstate Insurance. These are big accounts that we are winning because winning PSP is a strategic imperative for us. It allows us to have our latest checkout experiences with the largest, most important merchants in the world across PayPal, Venmo and buy now, pay later. We capture 100% of the data flows, which really is feeding our AI engines. It's fueling what will be our next-generation checkout. And most importantly, it's fueling kind of our ability to have best-in-class auth rates in the industry and the lowest loss rates in the industry.

我們繼續贏得該行業的大客戶，無論是 booking.com、Meta、Allstate Insurance。我們正在贏得這些大客戶，因為贏得 PSP 對我們來說是一項戰略任務。它使我們能夠通過 PayPal、Venmo 與世界上最大、最重要的商家獲得最新的結賬體驗，並且可以立即購買，稍後付款。我們捕獲 100% 的數據流，這確實為我們的人工智能引擎提供了支持。它正在推動我們下一代結賬方式的發展。最重要的是，它增強了我們擁有業內一流的驗證率和業內最低的丟失率的能力。

In terms of the higher-margin services that we're going to be putting out there, we are seeing a lot of traction on that right now. For instance, we are moving into in-store. That's always been an area of opportunity for us. We are now fully implemented with 20 marquee merchants in over 1,000 in-store locations, over 2,500 POS systems. We'll continue to do quite well there and push significantly in that. We're making good progress in selling things like payouts, risk-as-a-service, disputes, automation. We're seeing our largest customers begin to adopt that right now, whether it be SHEIN or Meta or TikTok, really, these are some of the bigger clients that we have adopting our value-added services. And I'll just give you one example.

就我們將要推出的高利潤服務而言，我們現在看到了很大的吸引力。例如，我們正在進入店內。這對我們來說一直是一個充滿機遇的領域。我們現已在超過 1,000 個店內地點、超過 2,500 個 POS 系統的 20 個大型商戶中全面實施。我們將繼續在這方面做得很好並大力推動。我們在銷售支付、風險即服務、爭議、自動化等方面取得了良好進展。我們看到我們最大的客戶現在開始採用它，無論是 SHEIN、Meta 還是 TikTok，實際上，這些是我們採用增值服務的一些較大客戶。我只舉一個例子。

We just started doing orchestration in 6 additional LatAm countries with much higher margins. And where we're doing that orchestration for our largest customers, we're seeing like a 190 basis point auth rate improvement. So you're seeing kind of this win-win as we're doing this.

我們剛剛開始在另外 6 個拉丁美洲國家進行編排，利潤率要高得多。在我們為最大的客戶進行編排的地方，我們看到認證率提高了 190 個基點。因此，當我們這樣做時，您會看到這種雙贏。

And then, of course, PPCP, as it goes down market, is a much higher margin product for us. Yes, I talked about all of the channel partners that have already implemented that or in the middle of implementing. And we've got another 25 more partners by year-end in the U.S., another 15 EU partners by year-end. So we're seeing a tremendous amount of scaling on that.

當然，隨著 PPCP 進入市場，它對我們來說是一種利潤率更高的產品。是的，我談到了所有已經實施或正在實施的渠道合作夥伴。到年底，我們在美國還有另外 25 個合作夥伴，到年底還有 15 個歐盟合作夥伴。所以我們看到了巨大的規模擴展。

We've also enabled here in the U.S., 1.2 million SMB merchants to basically do a one-click migration into PPCP. We've already done all the risk assessment for them. They're on the right platforms for us to be able to seamlessly transition them onto that platform. So I think we're going to see a large amount of volume moving into PPCP.

我們還在美國幫助 120 萬中小企業商家基本上一鍵遷移到 PPCP。我們已經為他們完成了所有的風險評估。它們位於正確的平台上，我們能夠將它們無縫地轉移到該平台上。所以我認為我們將看到大量的交易量進入 PPCP。

That's obviously higher margin, high value-added services. And Braintree will also help. And those will develop over time. Clearly, every quarter, they will add and some cumulative total will start to feel as we kind of exit the year and certainly as we go into 2024 with that. I hope that helped.

這顯然是利潤率更高、高附加值的服務。布倫特里也會提供幫助。這些都會隨著時間的推移而發展。顯然，每個季度，他們都會增加一些累計總數，當我們結束這一年時，當然，當我們進入 2024 年時，一些累計總數將開始顯現。我希望這有幫助。

Your next question comes from the line of Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的拉姆齊·阿薩爾 (Ramsey El-Assal)。

In terms of operating margin performance, were there any factors besides credit that had a bigger impact than you expected in Q2? And then, separately, can you just talk about the overall health of the credit business? Give us more color on the steps you're taking to maybe manage it a little bit differently. It sounded like that was the plan.

就營業利潤率表現而言，除了信貸之外，還有哪些因素對第二季度的影響比您預期的更大？然後，您能單獨談談信貸業務的整體健康狀況嗎？讓我們更多地了解您正在採取的步驟，也許可以採取一些不同的方式來管理它。聽起來這就是計劃。

Absolutely. So for the quarter, we expanded our operating margin by about 228 basis points to 21.4%. This was a slight miss to our guidance of approximately 22%, and it was predominantly driven by increased pressure from PayPal Business Loans. There's no other items that really contributed to that miss.

絕對地。因此，本季度我們的營業利潤率擴大了約 228 個基點，達到 21.4%。這與我們約 22% 的指導略有偏差，這主要是由於 PayPal 商業貸款壓力增加所致。沒有其他因素真正導致了這次失誤。

Overall, PayPal Business Loans was about a 90 basis point drag to transaction margin and to operating margin, and this is approximately 2x what we expected at the beginning of the quarter. So it really was a real impact. As it relates to our broader credit business, we're in a really good position. Like the rest of the industry, we're seeing some reversion back to pre-COVID levels of performance. But across our diversified portfolio of consumer and merchant credit, we're seeing relatively stable delinquency and charge-off trends.

總體而言，PayPal 商業貸款對交易利潤率和運營利潤率造成約 90 個基點的拖累，這大約是我們本季度初預期的兩倍。所以這確實是一個真正的影響。由於它與我們更廣泛的信貸業務相關，因此我們處於非常有利的位置。與行業其他公司一樣，我們看到業績有所回升到新冠疫情之前的水平。但在我們多元化的消費者和商業信貸組合中，我們看到相對穩定的拖欠和沖銷趨勢。

The largest growth area for us continues to be our buy now, pay later solutions, where our performance continues to be very strong. Of course, going forward, given our partnership with KKR, the majority of the originations are going to be funded off-balance sheet for us, and we'll be able to support the sustained growth of that business.

我們最大的增長領域仍然是我們的“先買後付”解決方案，我們的業績仍然非常強勁。當然，展望未來，鑑於我們與 KKR 的合作關係，大多數發起活動都將由我們的資產負債表外資助，我們將能夠支持該業務的持續增長。

On the PayPal Business Loan side, this is really the part of our portfolio where we have seen deterioration. This portfolio represents less than 15% of our overall net receivables. We've historically seen consistently strong performance in this book. And last year, we widened the credit box, and the performance has not been within our expected risk appetite. We've taken steps to improve performance. We significantly tightened originations.

在 PayPal 商業貸款方面，這確實是我們投資組合中出現惡化的部分。該投資組合占我們應收賬款淨額不到 15%。從歷史上看，我們在這本書中看到了一貫的強勁表現。而去年我們擴大了信貸額度，但表現並沒有在我們預期的風險偏好之內。我們已採取措施提高績效。我們顯著收緊了來源。

Today, the book is down about 30% in total receivables. And we expect this pressure to continue through the back half of the year, but then really to abate as we move into next year. That said, the overall strength of our business and the momentum we're seeing is allowing us to maintain our operating margin and EPS guidance for the year while we're absorbing this credit pressure.

如今，該賬面的應收賬款總額下降了約 30%。我們預計這種壓力將持續到今年下半年，但隨著進入明年，壓力將真正減輕。也就是說，我們業務的整體實力和我們所看到的勢頭使我們能夠在吸收信貸壓力的同時維持今年的營業利潤率和每股收益指導。

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的賈森·庫普弗伯格 (Jason Kupferberg)。

I wanted to come back to branded TPV growth. So you had 6.5% in the month of June. You were over 8% in July. You're expecting further acceleration during the balance of the year. So can you just talk more specifically about the drivers of and the visibility on that ongoing improvement? Like how much of it is better macro? How much is traction with PayPal's own branded checkout initiatives? And which among those branded checkout initiatives is moving the needle most materially here in 2023?

我想回到冠捷品牌的增長。所以 6 月份你有 6.5%。 7 月份的比例超過 8%。您預計今年剩餘時間內會進一步加速。那麼您能否更具體地談談持續改進的驅動因素和可見性？比如有多少是更好的宏觀？ PayPal 自有品牌結賬計劃的吸引力有多大？ 2023 年，這些品牌結賬舉措中哪一項將帶來最實質性的推動？

Yes. I'll take a crack at that, Jason. Thanks for the question. It's an important one. We are really pleased, obviously, to see branded checkout accelerate like it is. And we have good confidence that the initiatives that we're putting into place are going to continue to drive that growth. As I think about what is driving that growth, it's hard to delineate exactly what is happening because of macro, in terms of e-commerce improving, in general, as I mentioned to Tien-Tsin's first question around e-commerce and what is due to our initiatives, but we are clearly putting a lot of time, effort and resource into improving the checkout experience. And my hats off to that entire checkout team for all that they've done here.

是的。我會嘗試一下，傑森。謝謝你的提問。這是一個重要的事情。顯然，我們真的很高興看到品牌結賬加速發展。我們堅信，我們正在實施的舉措將繼續推動這一增長。當我思考推動這種增長的因素時，很難準確描述正在發生的事情，因為總體而言，就電子商務的改善而言，正如我在天進關於電子商務的第一個問題中提到的那樣我們的舉措，但我們顯然投入了大量的時間、精力和資源來改善結賬體驗。我向整個結帳團隊在這裡所做的一切表示敬意。

I say, look, first of all, as e-commerce is growing, we're going to grow with it because we are clearly one of the market leaders, if not the market leader in digital payments around that. We do have a scale advantage over anybody in terms of 30 million-plus merchants that we have out there, 80% of the top 1,500 Internet retailers. We have a performance advantage in checkout, up to 600 basis points better in auth rates than the industry average.

我說，首先，隨著電子商務的發展，我們將隨之增長，因為我們顯然是市場領導者之一，即使不是數字支付領域的市場領導者。我們確實比任何人都具有規模優勢，因為我們擁有超過 3000 萬的商戶，佔 1,500 強互聯網零售商的 80%。我們在結帳方面具有性能優勢，驗證率比行業平均水平高出 600 個基點。

And we have a trust advantage. When small businesses put PayPal on their site, they see their online sales go up by almost 44%. So those are things that we are building upon. But as we mentioned in our Investor Day on June 8, we've -- the amount of acceleration and the amount of innovation we're putting into the market has improved dramatically.

我們有信任優勢。當小型企業將 PayPal 放在其網站上時，他們發現自己的在線銷售額增長了近 44%。這些就是我們正在構建的東西。但正如我們在 6 月 8 日的投資者日中提到的，我們投入市場的加速程度和創新程度已經顯著提高。

We did 100 A/B tests in the first quarter. We did 200 A/B tests, an incremental 200, in the second quarter. We're going to do another 200 coming here in the third quarter. And in general, about 30% or so of those A/B tests that we run actually create positive benefit coming out of them. What that means is we're going to have like 150 or so improvements in checkout in our digital wallets running through our metrics as we go through. And some of those are 1 or 2 basis points difference. Some of those can increase TPA by 10 or 15 basis points. And when you put all of those together, it's extraordinarily powerful. We are definitely seeing that in our results.

我們在第一季度進行了 100 次 A/B 測試。我們在第二季度進行了 200 次 A/B 測試，增加了 200 次。我們將在第三季度再做 200 次來這裡。一般來說，我們運行的 A/B 測試中大約有 30% 左右實際上會產生積極的效益。這意味著，根據我們的指標，我們的數字錢包結賬方面將會有大約 150 項改進。其中一些存在 1 或 2 個基點的差異。其中一些可以將 TPA 提高 10 或 15 個基點。當你把所有這些放在一起時，它會變得非常強大。我們確實在結果中看到了這一點。

We also are beginning to see a lot of our merchants move to our latest integrations. We know that when we're native in app on the mobile that we hold or gain share. We talked like a quarter or 2 ago, about 33 of our top 100 merchants had our latest checkout integrations, and we had an aspiration to be at 50 by the end of the year. I'm pleased to report that now 43 of our top 100 merchants are in our latest checkout integration.

我們也開始看到許多商家轉向我們最新的集成。我們知道，當我們在移動設備上使用原生應用程序時，我們就擁有或獲得了份額。大約一個季度或兩個季度前，我們談到，我們的 100 強商家中約有 33 家採用了我們最新的結賬集成，我們希望在年底之前達到 50 家。我很高興地向您報告，現在我們的 100 強商家中有 43 家加入了我們最新的結賬集成。

So we're making really good progress around that. We're not about doing just like the basics. We are improving availability. Latency has now improved by 45% year-over-year. Every couple of milliseconds increases conversion rates on that. And passwordless is really important for us and the rollout of passkeys, some other authentication methodologies that we're using. Now ex the EU, which has SCA, Strong Customer Authentication, we're at about 70% of our checkouts that are passwordless. That's going to continue to go up as we push passkeys, and we're now taking passkeys into the EU, which will be very beneficial because you can actually take out the friction of SCA in those conversions as well. And so we're going to push that really hard.

所以我們在這方面取得了非常好的進展。我們不只是做最基本的事情。我們正在提高可用性。延遲現已同比改善 45%。每隔幾毫秒就會增加轉化率。無密碼對於我們以及密鑰和我們正在使用的其他一些身份驗證方法的推出非常重要。現在，除了擁有 SCA（強客戶身份驗證）的歐盟之外，我們大約 70% 的結帳都是無密碼的。隨著我們推行密鑰，這一數字將會繼續上升，而且我們現在正在將密鑰帶入歐盟，這將非常有益，因為您實際上也可以消除這些轉換中 SCA 的摩擦。所以我們將非常努力地推動這一點。

And then you see all the other big initiatives that we're doing: the pre-introduction, preapproved amounts for buying BNPL. By the way, in the U.S., we've rolled that out to 60 million of our customers. We are seeing 25% to 30% increase in first-time users of buy now, pay later. And those are using it 5% to 10% more in terms of the overall TPV than those that didn't have the preapproved amounts. And we're going to roll out another 50 million preapproved into the EU beginning of this quarter.

然後你會看到我們正在採取的所有其他重大舉措：預先引入、預先批准購買 BNPL 的金額。順便說一句，在美國，我們已經向 6000 萬客戶推出了這一服務。我們發現“先買後付”的首次用戶增加了 25% 到 30%。就總 TPV 而言，那些使用它的人比那些沒有預先批准金額的人多 5% 到 10%。我們將在本季度初向歐盟再投放 5000 萬個預先批准的項目。

We're taking our rewards up, our rewards and cash back. We saw a 20% increase in the number of people using it from Q1 to Q2. We're now up over 10 million people using our rewards. When they use our rewards, their TPA goes up by 32%. So these are some of the things that we're doing that are making a big difference. We've got a lot of things planned for Q3, and we're beginning to see it in the results and hope to be able to continue to point that out and continue to highlight what we hope to be increased growth in branded checkout.

我們正在提高我們的獎勵，我們的獎勵和現金返還。從第一季度到第二季度，我們發現使用它的人數增加了 20%。目前已有超過 1000 萬人使用我們的獎勵。當他們使用我們的獎勵時，他們的 TPA 提高了 32%。因此，這些是我們正在做的一些正在產生重大影響的事情。我們為第三季度計劃了很多事情，我們開始在結果中看到它，並希望能夠繼續指出這一點，並繼續強調我們希望品牌結賬的增長。

Your next question comes from the line of David Togut with Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

Can you provide an update on your cost takeout plan for 2023, the progress you've made? And do you have any preliminary thoughts quantifying how OpEx reductions will carry into 2024?

您能否提供 2023 年成本支出計劃的最新情況以及取得的進展？對於量化 2024 年運營支出削減將如何進行，您有什麼初步想法嗎？

Yes. Thanks, David. I'll start and then probably Gabs will jump in on this. Look, we're going to continue to do surgical discipline in our cost structure. It was down 11% in Q2. For the full year, we still expect that to decline, consistent with what we talked about, by 10%. And therefore, when we think about our operating margin expansion coming up by at least 100 basis points and some of that incremental pressure that we're absorbing on the credit side that, as Gabs mentioned, will kind of move through our numbers by the end of the year, you're obviously seeing growing margin expansion driven by some of the top line enhancements we're doing, not just the cost discipline that we've demonstrated.

是的。謝謝，大衛。我先開始，然後加布斯可能會介入。看，我們將繼續在我們的成本結構中實行外科手術紀律。第二季度下降了 11%。對於全年而言，我們仍然預計該數字將下降 10%，與我們所說的一致。因此，當我們考慮我們的營業利潤率擴張至少 100 個基點以及我們在信貸方面吸收的一些增量壓力時，正如加布斯提到的那樣，到最後我們的數字將會有所變化今年，您顯然會看到我們正在做的一些頂線增強措施推動了利潤率的不斷增長，而不僅僅是我們已經展示的成本紀律。

I would just say that this is not just about efficiencies, but this is about doing things faster and accelerating the velocity of our innovation. It's not about trade-offs. It's about lower cost, but higher performance. And you're seeing that because, look at our MBS being at 7-year highs, look at the amount of innovation that we're now pumping through the system right now. We're getting more done more efficiently.

我只想說，這不僅僅是關於效率，而是關於更快地做事並加快我們的創新速度。這不是權衡的問題。這是為了降低成本，但提高性能。你看到這一點是因為，看看我們的 MBS 處於 7 年來的高點，看看我們現在通過該系統注入的創新量。我們正在更高效地完成更多工作。

There's no question that AI is going to impact every single company and every function just as it will inside of PayPal. And we've been experimenting with a couple of hundred of our developers using tools from both Google, Microsoft as well as Amazon. And we are seeing 20% to 40% increases in engineering productivity. Just imagine that in terms of how much more product we can get into the market and how efficiently we can do that.

毫無疑問，人工智能將影響每家公司和每項職能，就像它在 PayPal 內部一樣。我們一直在與數百名開發人員一起使用 Google、Microsoft 和 Amazon 的工具進行試驗。我們看到工程生產力提高了 20% 到 40%。試想一下，我們可以將多少產品推向市場，以及我們可以如何高效地做到這一點。

I think we've always known and anticipated that AI will drive productivity improvements really for foreseeable future. But I think the exciting, more unexpected result is that we think it's going to transform our value proposition as well. Things like enabling us to look into all of our transactions, look at early fraud metrics to be able to feed that back to customers with early fraud alerts that assure them that we are protecting them, enabling them to add more and more financial instruments to us as well that we can protect this PayPal assistant that's going to -- that's really an AI chatbot. We've been using it internally inside our consumer app. It's pretty amazing what it can do. Obviously, our advanced checkout, things that customize rewards. So AI is going to be a thing that not only drives productivity improvements for us, but really importantly, value proposition improvements for us. And so we're surgical on our cost thing. We've been very disciplined in it. We're quite pleased with it, and I think we'll see productivity improvements over the years to come.

我認為我們一直都知道並預計人工智能將在可預見的未來真正推動生產力的提高。但我認為令人興奮、更意想不到的結果是我們認為它也將改變我們的價值主張。例如，使我們能夠調查所有交易，查看早期欺詐指標，以便能夠通過早期欺詐警報將其反饋給客戶，確保我們正在保護他們，使他們能夠向我們添加越來越多的金融工具我們還可以保護這個PayPal 助手，它實際上是一個人工智能聊天機器人。我們一直在我們的消費者應用程序內部使用它。它能做什麼真是令人驚奇。顯然，我們的高級結帳、定制獎勵的東西。因此，人工智能不僅會提高我們的生產力，而且非常重要的是，會提高我們的價值主張。所以我們對成本問題進行了手術。我們在這方面一直非常有紀律。我們對此非常滿意，並且我認為我們將在未來幾年看到生產力的提高。

Yes. As Dan said, we're on track for a 10% decline in our other OpEx for the year. The first half is down kind of low double digits, call it, 11.5%, 12%. In the back half of the year, of course, we begin to lap some of the cost savings that we began to take out last year. And so the decline in other OpEx declined a bit, and so we'll be in sort of the high single digits then.

是的。正如 Dan 所說，我們今年其他運營支出有望下降 10%。上半年下降了兩位數，11.5%、12%。當然，在今年下半年，我們開始利用去年開始節省的一些成本。因此，其他運營支出的下降幅度也有所下降，因此我們屆時將處於較高的個位數水平。

Building on what Dan said, just around delivering better experiences to our customers and the productivity gains, it's also coming from the platform migration and consolidation work that we're doing. And that, too, allows us to scale more efficiently over time. And so you should expect to see us continue to look for ways to deliver better experiences to our customers and scale them efficiently on our platform.

基於丹所說的，圍繞為我們的客戶提供更好的體驗和生產力的提高，它也來自我們正在做的平台遷移和整合工作。這也使我們能夠隨著時間的推移更有效地擴展。因此，您應該期望看到我們繼續尋找為客戶提供更好體驗並在我們的平台上有效擴展體驗的方法。

Your next question comes from the line -- sorry, we have time for one last question, and it comes from the line of Bryan Keane with Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自電話線——抱歉，我們有時間回答最後一個問題，它來自德意志銀行的 Bryan Keane 電話線。

I wanted to ask about the consumer value prop, and a big piece of that is going to be the wallet and the enhancements of the wallet, including offers. Can you just talk about some of the initiatives you're doing there that's going to improve the digital wallet going forward?

我想問一下消費者價值支柱，其中很大一部分將是錢包和錢包的增強功能，包括優惠。您能否談談您正在採取的一些旨在改善數字錢包未來的舉措？

Yes, sure. Thanks for the question. I mean, obviously, increasing the number of consumers who use our digital wallet, it's one of our most important initiatives because we feel it's going to drive both engagement, ARPA, monthly active users. The app user today, the typical app user has a 35% greater ARPU, 60% greater TPV and 25% less churn. And so the more we can put on that, the better. And about 55% of our base today uses the app, just to give you an idea of that.

是的，當然。謝謝你的提問。我的意思是，顯然，增加使用我們數字錢包的消費者數量，這是我們最重要的舉措之一，因為我們認為它將推動參與度、ARPA 和每月活躍用戶。今天的應用程序用戶，典型的應用程序用戶的 ARPU 提高了 35%，TPV 提高了 60%，流失率降低了 25%。因此，我們投入的越多越好。今天，我們約有 55% 的用戶使用該應用程序，只是為了讓您了解這一點。

And the app, to your point, is designed to enable the full shopping experience, from discovery, which is like the deals and offers that you just mentioned; to flexible payments; the widest array of funding choices, things like buy now, pay later, split tender that enables you to utilize 2 different funding sources to buy your purchase; to a post purchase, which includes package tracking and returns management, refunds directly into your PayPal wallet.

就您而言，該應用程序旨在實現從發現到發現的完整購物體驗，就像您剛才提到的交易和優惠；靈活付款；最廣泛的資金選擇，例如立即購買、稍後付款、分割招標，使您能夠利用 2 種不同的資金來源來購買您的產品；購買後，包括包裹跟踪和退貨管理，退款直接存入您的 PayPal 錢包。

I won't go in again to all the experimentation we're doing, but you can see kind of the tremendous amount of velocity there. The new features that are coming into the wallet include this early fraud alert. We've scaled that now to 10%. That's really designed to protect our customers. We can see fraudulent signals well before others. We can let a consumer know that their card has been compromised. We can simultaneous let the FI know so that card can be reissued instantaneously. And so we're seeing early but really positive response to consumers from this, and it causes them, these alerts that come, it causes them to open the app. The more they open the app, the more they do with us.

我不會再次討論我們正在做的所有實驗，但你可以看到那裡的巨大速度。錢包中的新功能包括早期欺詐警報。我們現在已將其擴大到 10%。這確實是為了保護我們的客戶。我們可以比其他人更早地看到欺詐信號。我們可以讓消費者知道他們的卡已被盜用。我們可以同時通知FI，以便立即重新發行卡。因此，我們看到了消費者對此的早期但真正積極的反應，這導致他們，這些警報的出現，導致他們打開應用程序。他們打開應用程序的次數越多，他們與我們做的事情就越多。

I think I mentioned on the rewards cash back, that will be something that we'll be putting some resource into because we're seeing a tremendous interest in it. These users are up 20% quarter-over-quarter. And the TPA is gigantic improvement, as I mentioned, about a 32% improvement on that. Package tracking, we're now 100% ramped across iOS and Android. It scrapes basically your Gmail account to look for any of your e-commerce orders. They don't even have to be through PayPal. We consolidate them all into one place into our PayPal app. We're seeing a 20% app engagement uplift for those who sign up for that, a 10% improvement in TPA.

我想我提到了獎勵現金返還，這將是我們將投入一些資源的事情，因為我們看到了人們對此的巨大興趣。這些用戶環比增長了 20%。正如我所提到的，TPA 有了巨大的改進，大約提高了 32%。包裹跟踪，我們現在在 iOS 和 Android 上實現了 100% 的提升。它基本上會抓取您的 Gmail 帳戶來查找您的任何電子商務訂單。他們甚至不必通過 PayPal。我們將它們全部整合到我們的 PayPal 應用程序中的一處。我們發現註冊用戶的應用程序參與度提高了 20%，TPA 提高了 10%。

Things like savings, that's now at a 4.3% interest rate. When somebody does that, their ARPA goes up $26. And their log-in to the app goes up 16x those who don't have a savings account with us.

像儲蓄這樣的東西，現在的利率是 4.3%。當有人這樣做時，他們的 ARPA 就會上漲 26 美元。沒有我們儲蓄賬戶的人登錄該應用的次數增加了 16 倍。

I mentioned buy now, pay later preapproval, that's 50 million more to come this quarter in the EU. And we'll start things like our advanced AI checkout with our first clients later this year and our PayPal Assistant using AI technology as well. Those are just some of the things to come. There's a lot of innovation. And as I mentioned, my hats off to the team because I think they're just doing a great job hitting their schedule, doing constant experimentation and really making our experiences much improved and moving towards best-in-class.

我提到現在購買，稍後支付預先批准，本季度歐盟將增加 5000 萬個。我們將在今年晚些時候與我們的第一批客戶一起啟動先進的人工智能結賬，以及使用人工智能技術的 PayPal 助手。這些只是未來的一些事情。有很多創新。正如我所提到的，我向團隊致敬，因為我認為他們按照計劃完成了出色的工作，不斷進行實驗，真正使我們的體驗得到很大改善，並朝著一流的方向邁進。

So thanks, everyone, for your great questions. I really appreciate it. I want to thank everybody for your time, and we look forward to speaking to all of you later. So take care. Thank you.

謝謝大家提出的好問題。對此，我真的非常感激。我要感謝大家抽出寶貴的時間，我們期待稍後與大家交談。所以要小心。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開線路。