(PYPL) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

PayPal 公佈了 2023 年第四季和全年穩健的財務業績,收入成長,費用減少。該公司強調了建立多元化領導團隊並圍繞客戶群組織團隊的重要性。

他們宣布裁減全球員工隊伍,並概述了 2024 年的戰略重點,包括加速成長、提高獲利能力、利用數據和提高營運效率。

PayPal 預計第一季營收將成長,非 GAAP 每股收益將以中個位數百分比成長。他們還討論了執行領導團隊的變化以及對獲利成長的關注。

該公司強調了改善商家和消費者品牌體驗的重要性,並強調了 Fastlane 和立即購買、稍後付款等措施。

PayPal 致力於持久、高品質的獲利成長,並將優先投資於產品開發、工程和行銷。他們也討論了將股票薪酬納入非公認會計原則收益以及蘋果監管變化帶來的機會。

總體而言,PayPal 專注於執行其計劃,以實現業務的長期成功並擴大其在商業中的作用。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon. My name is Sarah, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to PayPal Holdings Earnings Conference Call for the Fourth Quarter 2023. (Operator Instructions)

    午安.我叫莎拉,今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。現在,我歡迎大家參加 PayPal Holdings 2023 年第四季收益電話會議。(操作員說明)

  • I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Ryan Wallace, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人,投資者關係主管 Ryan Wallace。請繼續。

  • Ryan Ward Wallace - Senior Director of IR

    Ryan Ward Wallace - Senior Director of IR

  • Good afternoon, and thank you for joining PayPal's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today is Alex Chriss, our President and CEO; and Jamie Miller, CFO.

    下午好,謝謝您參加 PayPal 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天加入我的是我們的總裁兼執行長 Alex Chriss;和財務長傑米米勒。

  • We're providing a slide presentation to accompany our commentary. This conference call is also being webcast. Both the presentation and call are available on our Investor Relations website. In discussing our company's performance, we will refer to some non-GAAP measures. You can find the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the presentation accompanying this conference call.

    我們將提供幻燈片演示來配合我們的評論。這次電話會議也進行了網路直播。演示和電話會議均可在我們的投資者關係網站上查看。在討論我們公司的表現時,我們將參考一些非公認會計準則衡量標準。您可以在本次電話會議隨附的簡報中找到這些非 GAAP 衡量標準與最直接可比較的 GAAP 衡量標準的對帳。

  • Our remarks today will include forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations, forecasts and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. Our actual results may differ materially from these statements. You can find more information about risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our results in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC and available on our Investor Relations website.

    我們今天的言論將包括基於我們當前的預期、預測和假設並涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述。我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。您可以在我們向SEC 提交並可在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱的最新10-K 表格年度報告和10-Q 表格季度報告中找到有關風險、不確定性和其他可能影響我們業績的因素的更多資訊。

  • All information in this presentation is as of today's date, we expressly disclaim any obligation to update this information. And with that, let me turn the call over to Alex.

    本簡報中的所有資訊均截至今日,我們明確不承擔更新此資訊的義務。接下來,讓我把電話轉給亞歷克斯。

  • James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

    James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Ryan, and thank you to everyone for joining us this afternoon. It's been a productive first 4 months. I'm pleased with what we've been able to accomplish in such a short period of time while delivering the solid financial results we will discuss today. More importantly, I'm excited about the foundation we're setting and the velocity at which we're executing as we enter 2024. Today, I'd like to walk you through the changes we've made to the structure of our company, including several key additions to our leadership team, give a clear road map for how we will be executing going forward and share our strategic priorities for 2024. Jamie will take you through the fourth quarter and full year results in greater detail, but the headline is that we delivered a solid quarter during the most important shopping season for our customers.

    謝謝瑞安,也謝謝大家今天下午加入我們。前 4 個月是富有成效的。我對我們能夠在如此短的時間內取得的成就感到滿意,同時提供了我們今天將討論的可靠的財務表現。更重要的是,我對進入 2024 年時我們正在建立的基礎和執行速度感到興奮。今天,我想向您介紹我們對公司結構所做的改變,包括我們領導團隊的幾位重要補充,為我們未來的執行方式提供清晰的路線圖,並分享我們2024 年的策略重點。傑米將帶您更詳細地了解第四季度和全年的業績,但標題我們在客戶最重要的購物季期間交付了穩定的季度業績。

  • In Q4, we delivered 9% revenue growth on $410 billion in total payment volume. Transaction margin dollar performance was better than expected in the fourth quarter, and we continued strong expense discipline, reducing non-transaction-related expenses by 9% year-over-year.

    第四季度,我們的營收成長了 9%,支付總額達到 4,100 億美元。第四季交易保證金美元表現優於預期,我們繼續嚴格的費用紀律,將非交易相關費用年減了 9%。

  • Taken together with $600 million in share repurchases in the quarter, our non-GAAP earnings per share increased 19% year-over-year. While these are solid results, we know there is still much room for improvement, and we're committed to making the necessary changes to our business and how we invest and operate to get it right. One of the key changes I talked about in our last earnings call was ensuring we have an outstanding leadership team in place. It's important to me that we have a leadership team with a broad diversity of experience, deep operational rigor and leaders with track records of success.

    加上本季 6 億美元的股票回購,我們的非 GAAP 每股盈餘較去年同期成長 19%。雖然這些都是堅實的成果,但我們知道仍有很大的改進空間,我們致力於對我們的業務以及我們的投資和營運方式進行必要的改變,以實現正確的目標。我在上次財報電話會議中談到的關鍵變化之一是確保我們擁有一支出色的領導團隊。對我來說,重要的是我們擁有一支經驗豐富、運作嚴謹的領導團隊以及擁有成功記錄的領導者。

  • I'm thrilled with the talent that we've assembled in the last few months. With Jamie as our new CFO; Isabel Cruz, leading people in places; Michelle Gill, leading Small Business & Financial Services; Suzan Kereere, leading Global Markets; Diego Scotti, leading Consumer and Global Marketing and Communications, combined with talented leaders who have risen within PayPal, we have a world-class leadership team in place to help the organization reach its full potential.

    我對過去幾個月我們聚集的人才感到非常興奮。 Jamie 擔任我們的新任財務長;伊莎貝爾·克魯茲(Isabel Cruz),在地方領導人們; Michelle Gill,負責小型企業和金融服務; Suzan Kereere,全球市場領導者;消費者和全球行銷與傳播主管 Diego Scotti 與 PayPal 內部晉升的才華橫溢的領導者相結合,我們擁有一支世界一流的領導團隊,可以幫助該組織充分發揮潛力。

  • Each of these leaders chose to join PayPal because they see the tremendous opportunity we have in front of us to reshape commerce and are already driving a renewed energy within the company. Second, we've organized our teams around the customers we serve, consumers, small businesses and enterprises. This creates clear lines of accountability and will enable teams to focus on delivering the right solutions that address our customers' greatest needs. Regardless of the customer we're serving, we want to make the PayPal offering so user-friendly, so rewarding and so integrated into a customer's life that PayPal is the obvious choice. Our new structure enables that.

    這些領導者中的每一位都選擇加入 PayPal,因為他們看到了我們面前重塑商業的巨大機會,並且已經在公司內部推動了新的活力。其次,我們圍繞著我們服務的客戶、消費者、小型企業和企業來組織我們的團隊。這創造了清晰的責任界限,並使團隊能夠專注於提供正確的解決方案來滿足客戶的最大需求。無論我們服務的客戶是誰,我們都希望讓 PayPal 產品變得用戶友好、回報豐厚並融入客戶的生活,因此 PayPal 是顯而易見的選擇。我們的新結構可以實現這一點。

  • Third, last week, we announced that we will reduce our global workforce by approximately 9% through both direct reductions and the elimination of open roles over the course of the year. As I mentioned in our last earnings call, our size has been slowing us down. While this was not an easy decision to make, this change is necessary to execute with the focus and speed required to drive our next chapter of growth and allow us to invest in our future. With these changes, we continue to reprioritize and invest in the innovation and delivery of products and solutions that offer the greatest impact for our customers.

    第三,上週我們宣布,我們將在今年透過直接裁員和取消空缺職位的方式,將全球員工人數減少約 9%。正如我在上次財報電話會議中提到的,我們的規模一直在拖慢我們的步伐。雖然這不是一個容易做出的決定,但必須以推動我們下一個成長篇章並讓我們投資未來所需的重點和速度來執行這項變革。隨著這些變化,我們繼續重新調整優先順序並投資於產品和解決方案的創新和交付,為客戶帶來最大的影響。

  • The team has been very focused on building out our strategy and driving focused execution for 2024. These are the most important priorities we're focused on this year, accelerating growth in our branded checkout business, improving overall profitability, including that of our high-growth PSP services, unlocking the power of data to create more value for our customers while tapping into new sources of revenue and margin and operating more efficiently.

    團隊一直非常專注於制定我們的策略並推動 2024 年的重點執行。這些是我們今年關注的最重要的優先事項,加速我們品牌結帳業務的成長,提高整體獲利能力,包括我們的高獲利能力成長PSP 服務,釋放資料的力量,為我們的客戶創造更多價值,同時利用新的收入和利潤來源並提高營運效率。

  • Our first look, customer announcement 2 weeks ago was an initial demonstration of the importance of delivering compelling value propositions to consumers and merchants. As promised, we're doing a lot of things to drive change internally and externally.

    我們兩週前的第一眼客戶公告初步證明了向消費者和商家提供令人信服的價值主張的重要性。正如所承諾的那樣,我們正在做很多事情來推動內部和外部的變革。

  • However, nothing happens overnight. It will take time for some of our initiatives to scale and move the needle, but the initial customer reaction and merchant demand for our new innovations has been encouraging. 2024 is going to be a transition year, focused on execution to position the business for long-term success. Our clear goal is to reshape the company to accelerate profitable growth and margin expansion in the years ahead.

    然而,一夜之間什麼事也沒有發生。我們的一些措施需要時間來擴大規模並取得進展,但客戶對我們新創新的初步反應和商家需求一直令人鼓舞。 2024 年將是過渡年,專注於執行力,以確保業務取得長期成功。我們的明確目標是重塑公司,以在未來幾年加速獲利成長和利潤率擴張。

  • Prioritization will be key allowing us to move more quickly and with better results. Later in the call, Jamie will take you through our full year guidance. We have made strategic decisions to reinvest cost savings back into our most important initiatives. It is critical that we remain on offense and position ourselves to not only innovate but capture our share of the growth in global commerce. We want to be clear-eyed in terms of the potential near-term benefits from our initiatives, which is why our 2024 guidance includes minimal contribution from the innovations we recently announced. We want to see execution and clear results prior to embedding these initiatives into our financial outlook.

    優先順序將是關鍵,使我們能夠更快採取行動並取得更好的結果。稍後在電話會議中,傑米將向您介紹我們的全年指導。我們做出了策略決策,將節省的成本重新投入我們最重要的措施。至關重要的是,我們必須保持進攻,不僅要創新,還要在全球商業成長中佔據我們的份額。我們希望對我們的舉措帶來的潛在短期利益保持清醒,這就是為什麼我們的 2024 年指南只包含了我們最近宣布的創新的最小貢獻。在將這些舉措納入我們的財務前景之前,我們希望看到執行和明確的結果。

  • As a company, we will build back a track record of delivering on our commitments. In November, I committed to being transparent with you all on how we will run the business. I want to spend a few minutes to share our operating principles and how we expect these will drive value creation over time. Our 5 operating principles are: number one, start with the customer. I believe in working customer back. We will start by defining our customers and their most critical needs. Then we will use that knowledge to inform everything we do, including investments and innovation.

    作為一家公司,我們將重建兌現承諾的記錄。 11 月,我承諾對大家公開我們將如何經營業務。我想花幾分鐘時間分享我們的營運原則,以及我們期望這些原則如何隨著時間的推移推動價值創造。我們的 5 項營運原則是:第一,從客戶開始。我相信回饋客戶。我們將從定義我們的客戶及其最關鍵的需求開始。然後我們將利用這些知識來指導我們所做的一切,包括投資和創新。

  • Number two, focus on profitable growth. We will prioritize high-quality, profitable growth and driving improved transaction margin dollars through more rigor and discipline.

    第二,關注獲利成長。我們將優先考慮高品質、獲利性的成長,並透過更嚴格和紀律來推動交易利潤率的提高。

  • Number three, drive operating leverage over time. We will combine our assets and data to develop more personalized experiences for our customers and drive efficiencies across the business to leverage our cost base.

    第三,隨著時間的推移提高營運槓桿。我們將結合我們的資產和數據,為客戶開發更個人化的體驗,並提高整個業務的效率,以利用我們的成本基礎。

  • Number four, set measurable goals and communicate consistently. We say what we mean and mean what we say, we will be transparent and accountable for our performance; and number five, maintain a strong balance sheet. We will be diligent in managing our resources and returning excess cash to our shareholders. These 5 principles will guide how we make decisions and will ultimately keep us accountable to deliver what we say we will do.

    第四,設定可衡量的目標並持續溝通。我們言出必行,言出必行,我們將保持透明並對我們的表現負責;第五,保持強勁的資產負債表。我們將努力管理我們的資源並將多餘的現金回饋給股東。這 5 項原則將指導我們如何做出決策,並最終讓我們有責任兌現我們所說的要做的事情。

  • Let me now take you through what this means for how we serve our customers and what we're focused on in 2024. For enterprises, we're focused on accelerating growth in branded checkout and driving the profitable growth of our PSP services this year. Branded checkout is a critical part of PayPal's value proposition. We need to ensure we have our best checkout experience available to every consumer on every merchant every time. This will be a multiyear effort.

    現在讓我向您介紹一下這對我們如何服務客戶意味著什麼以及我們在 2024 年的重點是什麼。對於企業來說,我們今年的重點是加速品牌結帳的成長並推動 PSP 服務的獲利成長。品牌結帳是 PayPal 價值主張的重要組成部分。我們需要確保每次為每個商家的每個消費者提供最佳的結帳體驗。這將是一項多年的努力。

  • To start, we've redesigned our branded checkout experience, creating more simplicity and consistency with the goal of optimizing presentment, increasing speed and minimizing friction across all major checkout flows. When combined with our efforts in password-less authentication, these new flows can result in up to an additional 50% drop in latency, allowing a shopper to check out twice as fast. Improvements like this are aimed at driving a higher selection rate of PayPal and better conversion for our merchants.

    首先,我們重新設計了我們的品牌結帳體驗,創造了更多的簡單性和一致性,目標是優化展示、提高速度並最大限度地減少所有主要結帳流程中的摩擦。與我們在無密碼身份驗證方面的努力相結合,這些新流程可將延遲額外降低 50%,從而使購物者的結帳速度提高一倍。此類改進旨在提高 PayPal 的選擇率並為我們的商家帶來更好的轉換。

  • A challenge in the past has been bringing existing merchants on to our latest integrations and experiences. This is one of the reasons why our new guest checkout experience Fastlane by PayPal is so exciting. It's truly differentiated and will provide a compelling reason for merchants to operate. With it, we can recognize up to 70% of guests visiting a merchant, reduced checkout time by up to 40% and grow the top of our branded checkout funnel. BigCommerce, one of our long-time partners has already implemented Fastlane on their platform, and the conversion of their merchants using this new solution is as high as 79%. Combining solutions like Fastlane with a full suite of PSP offerings and more targeted, personalized commerce experiences creates a powerful end-to-end suite of capabilities that drive higher sales for merchants and gives them more reason to choose PayPal.

    過去的一個挑戰是讓現有商家接受我們最新的整合和體驗。這就是我們全新的 PayPal 賓客結帳體驗 Fastlane 如此令人興奮的原因之一。它真正與眾不同,將為商家提供令人信服的經營理由。有了它,我們可以識別高達 70% 的訪問商家的客人,將結帳時間縮短高達 40%,並擴大我們品牌結帳管道的頂部。 BigCommerce是我們的長期合作夥伴之一,已經在他們的平台上實施了Fastlane,使用這項新解決方案的商家轉換率高達79%。將Fastlane 等解決方案與全套PSP 產品和更有針對性的個人化商務體驗結合,創造一套強大的端到端功能,為商家帶來更高的銷售額,讓他們有更多理由選擇PayPal 。

  • We're focused on driving profitable growth, including within our PSP services like Braintree. The team continues to earn market share and merchant confidence through product and performance enhancements, delivering auth rate improvements of up to 240 basis points for enterprise customers in the U.S. We're continuing to build out and seamlessly integrate additional value-added services in areas like orchestration, routing optimization, payouts and risk as a service in addition to serving as a seamless integration point for our latest branded checkout experiences, including PayPal, Venmo and Buy Now, Pay Later. We will be able to compete in the market with a best-in-class offering and price to value. In addition, we're putting greater discipline into our go-to-market and renewal processes as we focus on profitable growth. These areas take time to scale, but we're laser-focused on them and expect to make steady progress this year.

    我們專注於推動獲利成長,包括 Braintree 等 PSP 服務。該團隊繼續透過產品和性能增強來贏得市場份額和商家信心,為美國企業客戶提供高達 240 個基點的驗證率改進。我們將繼續在以下領域構建和無縫集成其他增值服務除了作為我們最新品牌結帳體驗(包括PayPal、Venmo 和立即購買、稍後付款)的無縫整合點之外,還提供編排、路由優化、付款和風險即服務。我們將能夠以一流的產品和性價比在市場上競爭。此外,由於我們專注於獲利成長,因此我們對上市和更新流程更加嚴格。這些領域的規模化需要時間,但我們高度關注這些領域,並預計今年將取得穩步進展。

  • For small businesses, we're on a journey to move from a variety of standalone products to a modern platform with a comprehensive suite of solutions. What this means in 2024 is that we're focused on accelerating the adoption of PayPal Complete Payments, or PPCP, through a reinvigorated go-to-market approach for partners and developers. This full stack solution enables us to distribute our best branded checkout flow to SMBs while also competing for the approximately $750 billion addressable market of processing volumes. We've had limited penetration of SMB full stack processing to date due to the lack of a strong product, but that is now changing.

    對於小型企業,我們正在從各種獨立產品轉向具有全套解決方案的現代化平台。這意味著到 2024 年,我們將致力於透過為合作夥伴和開發者重振市場的方式,加速 PayPal Complete Payments(PPCP)的採用。這個全端解決方案使我們能夠向中小型企業分發最好的品牌結帳流程,同時爭奪約 7500 億美元的處理量市場。迄今為止,由於缺乏強大的產品,我們對 SMB 全端處理的滲透率有限,但這種情況現在正在改變。

  • November and December were record-setting months for new SMB adoption of PPCP. We're seeing lower churn rates for merchants on PPCP year-over-year, but we've also seen increases in transaction volume for merchants migrating to full stack processing from our legacy products. As the year progresses, we intend to drive additional adoption through partner channels, targeted marketing and developer-friendly capabilities like low- and no-code integration paths available through our brand new developer portal.

    11 月和 12 月是新中小企業採用 PPCP 的創紀錄月份。我們看到 PPCP 上的商家流失率逐年降低,但我們也看到從我們的舊產品遷移到全端處理的商家的交易量增加。隨著時間的推移,我們打算透過合作夥伴管道、有針對性的行銷和開發人員友好的功能(例如透過我們全新的開發人員入口網站提供的低程式碼和無程式碼整合路徑)來推動更多採用。

  • Over time, we want to better serve other important SMB needs, offering more ways to help them connect to new customers. It's also worth noting that all the checkout improvements I just discussed as part of our enterprise strategy can also benefit the tens of millions of SMBs that use PayPal. For consumers, we're focused on differentiating our value proposition, deepening existing relationships and giving shoppers more reasons to choose PayPal. PayPal already has strong consumer awareness and trust, but that is not enough to compete in today's world. Part of a person's decision to choose PayPal comes down to presentment, ease of use and speed, areas where we still have room to improve. We also want to give consumers more reasons to choose PayPal by delivering personal lines and rewarding shopping experiences that also drive higher conversion for merchants.

    隨著時間的推移,我們希望能更好地滿足其他重要的中小企業需求,提供更多方式幫助他們與新客戶建立聯繫。還值得注意的是,我剛才討論的作為我們企業策略一部分的所有結帳改進也可以使數千萬使用 PayPal 的中小企業受益。對於消費者而言,我們專注於差異化我們的價值主張、深化現有關係並為購物者提供更多選擇 PayPal 的理由。 PayPal 已經擁有強大的消費者意識和信任,但這還不足以在當今世界競爭。人們選擇 PayPal 的決定部分取決於外觀、易用性和速度,而這些方面我們仍有改進的空間。我們也希望透過提供個人化產品線和獎勵性購物體驗,為消費者提供更多選擇 PayPal 的理由,同時為商家帶來更高的轉換率。

  • This year, we're launching and evolving a new PayPal app to create [a situation]. We will also leverage our merchant relationships and the power of AI to make the entire shopping experience personalized for consumers while giving them control over their data. In addition, we will drive increased understanding and awareness of Why PayPal via sustained marketing efforts. Our goal is to drive quality customer growth over time as well as deeper relationships that include more frequent use and a greater range of product adoption.

    今年,我們將推出並改進一款新的 PayPal 應用程式來創造[一種情況]。我們也將利用我們的商家關係和人工智慧的力量,為消費者提供個人化的整個購物體驗,同時讓他們掌控自己的資料。此外,我們將透過持續的行銷努力,提高人們對「為什麼選擇 PayPal」的理解和認識。我們的目標是隨著時間的推移推動優質客戶成長以及更深層的關係,包括更頻繁的使用和更大範圍的產品採用。

  • The new checkout and app experiences we are rolling out this year will also create an engagement loop that will drive higher awareness of the various products we offer and drive higher adoption of our portfolio over time. Let me give you 2 examples of where we have significant opportunity to drive increased adoption. In the U.S., we have over 27 million active accounts using PayPal Rewards. In the fourth quarter, rewards accounts had higher engagement and average revenue per account that was almost double that of non-rewards accounts. The average revenue per account of someone who adopts the PayPal Cashback Mastercard is about 5x higher than the average checkout-only account.

    我們今年推出的新結帳和應用程式體驗也將創造一個參與循環,從而提高人們對我們提供的各種產品的認識,並隨著時間的推移推動我們的產品組合得到更高的採用。讓我舉兩個例子來說明我們在哪些方面有很大機會推動採用率的提升。在美國,我們有超過 2700 萬個使用 PayPal Rewards 的活躍帳戶。第四季度,獎勵帳戶的參與度更高,每個帳戶的平均收入幾乎是非獎勵帳戶的兩倍。採用 PayPal 現金回饋萬事達卡的用戶每個帳戶的平均收入比僅結帳帳戶的平均收入高出約 5 倍。

  • Today, only about 2% of active accounts have that card in their wallet. Increasing adoption of these products will not only drive a richer experience for our customers but improvement in customer engagement and lifetime value for us. Redesigning our app and creating improved frictionless onboarding paths are tangible ways that we plan to drive higher penetration of these types of products.

    如今,只有大約 2% 的活躍帳戶錢包裡有這張卡。越來越多地採用這些產品不僅可以為我們的客戶帶來更豐富的體驗,還可以提高我們的客戶參與度和終身價值。重新設計我們的應用程式並創建改進的無摩擦入門路徑是我們計劃提高此類產品滲透率的實際方法。

  • We're also bringing more functionality and better experiences to Venmo this year, like the ability to connect consumers with cash back offers from small businesses in their local communities. In addition to this innovation, we're focused on driving adoption of the Venmo debit card. Venmo debit card holders are among our most engaged accounts and drive 6x the incremental revenue than that of a P2P only customer, about 6% of our active Venmo customers have a Venmo debit card today.

    今年我們也為 Venmo 帶來了更多功能和更好的體驗,例如能夠將消費者與當地社區小型企業的現金回饋優惠聯繫起來。除了這項創新之外,我們還致力於推動 Venmo 金融卡的採用。 Venmo 金融卡持有者是我們參與度最高的帳戶之一,其增量收入是純 P2P 客戶的 6 倍,目前我們約 6% 的活躍 Venmo 客戶擁有 Venmo 金融卡。

  • So there is a significant opportunity there for us to focus on. Finally, this year, we will demonstrate meaningful progress towards operating more efficiently. We've already consolidated many disparate technology services into common platforms. So we have more work to unleash the power of our data in service of our customers. We're simplifying and automating manual processes and investing in tools and services needed to drive productivity and innovation velocity. This will reduce cost and complexity, improve the developer experience and give more reasons for customers to choose PayPal.

    因此,我們有一個值得關注的重要機會。最後,今年我們將在提高營運效率方面取得有意義的進展。我們已經將許多不同的技術服務整合到通用平台中。因此,我們還有更多工作來釋放資料的力量,為客戶提供服務。我們正在簡化和自動化手動流程,並投資於提高生產力和創新速度所需的工具和服務。這將降低成本和複雜性,改善開發者體驗,並為客戶選擇 PayPal 提供更多理由。

  • For example, we're converging to a single merchant reporting system, so that our merchants will get consistent and accurate reports, which will make a huge difference in how they run their business. Another outcome of consolidating platforms is that we will now see one view of the customer, which allows us to more effectively cross-sell the various products we offer. We will be moving at lightning speed and with the weight of the company behind each of these initiatives to deliver the best experiences possible for our customers this year.

    例如,我們正在整合到一個單一的商家報告系統,以便我們的商家可以獲得一致且準確的報告,這將對他們的業務運作方式產生巨大的影響。整合平台的另一個成果是我們現在將看到客戶的一個視圖,這使我們能夠更有效地交叉銷售我們提供的各種產品。我們將以閃電般的速度前進,並在每項舉措背後發揮公司的力量,今年為我們的客戶提供最佳體驗。

  • To wrap up, I am pleased with our fourth quarter results and the execution that the team delivered throughout the quarter amid an enormous amount of change. I'm excited about the year ahead and all the innovation we have in store for our customers. With that, I'll hand the call over to Jamie to take you through our results for the fourth quarter and full year.

    總而言之,我對我們第四季度的業績以及團隊在整個季度在發生巨大變化的情況下交付的執行感到滿意。我對未來的一年以及我們為客戶準備的所有創新感到興奮。接下來,我會將電話轉交給傑米,讓您了解我們第四季和全年的業績。

  • Jamie S. Miller - Executive VP & CFO

    Jamie S. Miller - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Alex. Good afternoon. First, let me say that I'm very excited to have joined PayPal. Our new leadership team is laser-focused on our customers, and I am incredibly energized to see our team come together to deliver PayPal's full potential. Before I discuss our financial results, you'll notice several things different in our materials today. First, we've redesigned our press release in a more standardized tabular format designed to allow ease of use and better consumption of information. We have also included additional supplemental metrics in our investor presentation intended to provide greater transparency into our business. We will continue to evaluate these and other changes over time.

    謝謝,亞歷克斯。午安.首先,我要說的是,我很高興加入 PayPal。我們的新領導團隊專注於我們的客戶,看到我們的團隊齊心協力充分發揮 PayPal 的潛力,我感到無比興奮。在我討論我們的財務表現之前,您會注意到我們今天的材料中有一些不同之處。首先,我們以更標準化的表格格式重新設計了新聞稿,旨在方便使用和更好地消費資訊。我們還在投資者介紹中納入了額外的補充指標,旨在提高我們業務的透明度。隨著時間的推移,我們將繼續評估這些變化和其他變化。

  • I'll start with a summary of our financial performance. In the fourth quarter, we reported 9% revenue growth on a spot and currency-neutral basis. For the full year, revenue grew 8% at spot and 9% on a currency-neutral basis. Transaction margin dollars were flat year-over-year in the fourth quarter and declined 1% for the full year. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $1.48 in the quarter, representing 19% year-over-year growth. Higher earnings per share in the quarter were driven by ongoing expense discipline and better-than-expected transaction margin dollars, which benefited from branded checkout, Braintree and interest on customer balances.

    我將首先總結我們的財務表現。在第四季度,我們報告在即期和貨幣中性的基礎上收入成長了 9%。全年營收以即期計算成長 8%,以貨幣中性計算成長 9%。第四季交易保證金較去年同期持平,全年下降 1%。本季非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.48 美元,年增 19%。本季每股收益的成長是由於持續的費用紀律和好於預期的交易利潤率推動的,這得益於品牌結帳、Braintree 和客戶餘額利息。

  • We ended the full year with $5.10 of non-GAAP earnings per share, up 24%. Our full year results benefited from lower operating expenses, the higher interest rate environment and the impact of share buybacks. Now I'll walk you through some key operating metrics that support these results. We ended the year with 426 million active accounts and 224 million monthly active accounts. Throughout last year, we indicated that we expected ongoing churn of unengaged accounts in less developed markets, predominantly in Latin America and the Asia Pacific region.

    我們全年的非 GAAP 每股收益為 5.10 美元,成長 24%。我們的全年業績得益於較低的營運費用、較高的利率環境以及股票回購的影響。現在,我將向您介紹一些支持這些結果的關鍵營運指標。截至年底,我們的活躍帳戶數為 4.26 億,每月活躍帳戶數為 2.24 億。去年全年,我們表示,預計欠發達市場(主要是拉丁美洲和亞太地區)的未參與帳戶將持續流失。

  • This was the primary driver of our year-over-year reduction in total active accounts. We had modest growth in monthly active accounts, up 1% for both the quarter and the full year, and our active base of engaged counts remain stable. More than 50% of our total active accounts were monthly actives over the course of 2023. Transactions per active account, which is a trailing 12-month number, was 58.7 in the fourth quarter, up 14%. If we exclude PSP processing, which is primarily Braintree from that figure, transactions per active account grew 7%. Part of this growth rate is driven by the churn of unengaged accounts that I just mentioned, but we were also encouraged by the higher activity levels we're seeing among our core base of accounts.

    這是我們活躍帳戶總數年減的主要原因。我們的每月活躍帳戶略有成長,本季和全年均成長 1%,且我們的活躍帳戶數量保持穩定。 2023 年,我們活躍帳戶總數的 50% 以上是月度活躍帳戶。每個活躍帳戶的交易量(過去 12 個月的數據)在第四季度為 58.7 筆,增長 14%。如果我們從該數字中排除 PSP 處理(主要是 Braintree),則每個活躍帳戶的交易量增加了 7%。這一增長率的部分原因是我剛才提到的未參與帳戶的流失,但我們也對我們的核心帳戶基礎中看到的更高的活動水平感到鼓舞。

  • Page 14 in our investor presentation includes additional information on our historical trends in monthly active accounts and transactions per active account, excluding PSP processing. On volume growth in the fourth quarter, we saw total payment volume, or TPV, of $409.8 billion, representing 15% growth at spot and 13% growth on a currency-neutral basis.

    我們的投資者介紹中的第 14 頁包含有關每月活躍帳戶和每個活躍帳戶交易歷史趨勢的更多資訊(不包括 PSP 處理)。在第四季的交易量成長方面,我們看到總支付量(TPV)為 4,098 億美元,即期成長 15%,在貨幣中性基礎上成長 13%。

  • This growth was driven primarily by Braintree as well as branded checkout and Venmo. U.S. TPV grew 11%, International TPV grew 17% on a currency-neutral basis, primarily driven by strength in Europe and improvement in Asia. For the full year, TPV was $1.5 trillion, increasing 13% at spot and 12% on a currency-neutral basis.

    這一成長主要由 Braintree 以及品牌結帳和 Venmo 推動。在貨幣中性的基礎上,美國 TPV 成長了 11%,國際 TPV 成長了 17%,這主要是受到歐洲強勁和亞洲改善的推動。全年 TPV 為 1.5 兆美元,即期成長 13%,以貨幣中性計算成長 12%。

  • PayPal's fourth quarter global branded checkout volumes grew by approximately 5% on a currency-neutral basis, bringing full year branded checkout volume growth to 6%. We have seen a solid start to the year with consistent global branded checkout growth through January. PSP processing volumes grew 29% in the quarter, driven by ongoing growth in Braintree. The team continues to make product and performance enhancements for merchants. We are also putting greater discipline into our go-to-market and renewal processes as we focus on overall profitable growth.

    PayPal 第四季全球品牌結帳量在貨幣中性的基礎上成長了約 5%,使全年品牌結帳量成長至 6%。我們看到了今年的良好開局,整個一月份全球品牌結帳持續成長。在 Braintree 持續成長的推動下,本季 PSP 處理量成長了 29%。該團隊不斷為商家提供產品和效能增強。由於我們專注於整體獲利成長,因此我們還在進入市場和更新流程中採取了更嚴格的紀律。

  • With respect to revenue, as I noted earlier, revenue in the fourth quarter increased 9% on a spot and currency-neutral basis to $8 billion. Transaction revenue grew 9% on a spot basis to $7.3 billion, driven by Braintree and branded checkout. In the fourth quarter, U.S. revenue grew 8%. International revenue increased 10% at spot and 12% on a currency-neutral basis, accelerating from the third quarter.

    至於收入,正如我之前指出的,第四季度的收入在即期和貨幣中性的基礎上增長了 9%,達到 80 億美元。在 Braintree 和品牌結帳的推動下,現貨交易收入成長 9%,達到 73 億美元。第四季度,美國營收成長8%。國際營收以即期計算成長 10%,以貨幣中性計算成長 12%,成長較第三季加速。

  • Similar to TPV, we saw ongoing strength in Europe and improvements in Asia. For the full year, U.S. revenue grew 9% and international revenue increased 7% at spot and 9% on a currency-neutral basis. Other value-added services revenue in the quarter grew 9% on a spot basis to $743 million. For the full year, other value-added services revenue grew 26% or by approximately $600 million. For both the quarter and the full year, this growth was driven almost entirely by increased interest income on customer stored balances.

    與冠捷類似,我們看到了歐洲的持續成長和亞洲的進步。美國全年營收成長 9%,國際營收以即期計算成長 7%,以貨幣中性計算成長 9%。該季度其他增值服務收入年增 9%,達到 7.43 億美元。全年其他增值服務收入成長 26%,即成長約 6 億美元。對於本季和全年而言,這一增長幾乎完全是由客戶儲存餘額利息收入的增加所推動的。

  • Transaction take rate declined 10 basis points to 1.78% in the fourth quarter. Approximately 7 bps of this decline was driven by 2 factors: lower gains from foreign currency hedges, which are recorded as international transaction revenue and flat foreign exchange fees. In addition, mix shift with higher volumes from large merchants continued to have a slight impact on our branded checkout take rate. Transaction take rate for the full year was 1.76%, also down 10 basis points year-over-year. Transaction margin dollars were flat year-over-year in the fourth quarter compared to a 3.5% decline in the third quarter. This approximate 4 percentage point improvement was driven by a combination of the absence of merchant contractual compensation in the prior year period and by branded checkout and Braintree.

    第四季交易接受率下降 10 個基點至 1.78%。下降約 7 個基點是由兩個因素驅動的:外匯對沖收益下降(記錄為國際交易收入)和固定外匯費用。此外,大型商家銷售增加的混合轉變持續對我們的品牌結帳率產生輕微影響。全年交易成交率為1.76%,也較去年同期下降10個基點。第四季交易保證金較去年同期持平,而第三季則下降了 3.5%。這一約 4 個百分點的改善是由於上一年期間沒有商家合約補償以及品牌結帳和 Braintree 共同推動的。

  • The growth of interest income on customer stored balances and growth of branded checkout were the largest contributors to transaction margin dollars in the fourth quarter. This growth was offset by the absence of hedge gains compared to the prior year period as well as declines in other parts of the portfolio, including the impact of migrating and consolidating legacy PayPal payment services. Fourth quarter transaction expense as a rate of TPV came in at 97 basis points, 4 basis points higher than the same period last year. This increase was primarily driven by Braintree volume growth and was partially offset by a favorable geographic mix of PayPal volumes and rate benefits in Venmo.

    客戶儲存餘額利息收入的成長和品牌結帳的成長是第四季度交易保證金的最大貢獻者。這一增長被與去年同期相比缺乏對沖收益以及投資組合其他部分的下降(包括遷移和整合傳統 PayPal 支付服務的影響)所抵消。第四季交易費用佔 TPV 的比率為 97 個基點,比去年同期高出 4 個基點。這一增長主要是由 Braintree 交易量增長推動的,但部分被 PayPal 交易量和 Venmo 的費率優勢的有利地理組合所抵消。

  • Full year transaction expense as a rate of TPV was 94 basis points. Transaction loss as a rate of TPV was 7 basis points for the quarter, up 1 basis point from the fourth quarter last year and 8 basis points for the full year. Credit losses were $119 million for the quarter or 3 basis points as a rate of TPV, down 32% year-over-year and 3 basis points as a rate of TPV for the full year.

    全年交易費用佔 TPV 的比例為 94 個基點。本季交易損失佔 TPV 的比例為 7 個基點,比去年第四季增加 1 個基點,全年增加 8 個基點。本季信貸損失為 1.19 億美元,以 TPV 比率計算為 3 個基點,年減 32%,以全年 TPV 比率計算為 3 個基點。

  • We have taken a prudent and active approach to managing our overall credit risk, tightening originations within our PayPal business loans portfolio and externalizing our European Buy Now, Pay Later portfolio. In the fourth quarter, non-transaction-related operating expenses declined 9% as we continue to actively manage our cost structure.

    我們採取審慎和積極的方法來管理我們的整體信用風險,收緊我們的 PayPal 商業貸款組合的來源,並將我們的歐洲「立即購買,稍後付款」組合外部化。第四季度,由於我們持續積極管理成本結構,非交易相關營運費用下降了 9%。

  • For the full year, the same expenses declined 11%.

    全年相同費用下降了 11%。

  • Non-GAAP operating income grew 11% in the quarter to nearly $1.9 billion and for the full year by 14% to $6.7 billion. Our non-GAAP operating margin increased 40 basis points to 23.3% in the quarter and increased 110 basis points to 22.4% for the full year due to better operating expense leverage in each period. PayPal generated $2.5 billion in free cash flow in the fourth quarter. This includes a $1.7 billion net benefit from the sale of our European Buy Now, Pay Later receivables to KKR, partly offset by the impact of new loans originated as held for sale.

    非 GAAP 營業收入本季成長 11%,達到近 19 億美元,全年成長 14%,達到 67 億美元。由於每個時期的營運費用槓桿有所改善,我們的非 GAAP 營運利潤率在本季度增長了 40 個基點,達到 23.3%,全年增長了 110 個基點,達到 22.4%。 PayPal 第四季產生了 25 億美元的自由現金流。其中包括將我們的歐洲「立即購買,稍後付款」應收帳款出售給 KKR 帶來的 17 億美元淨收益,部分被持有待售的新貸款的影響所抵消。

  • Adjusting for this impact, we generated nearly $800 million in adjusted free cash flow in the quarter and $4.6 billion for the full year. Higher-than-expected changes in working capital and cash taxes had a negative impact on fourth quarter free cash flow. In the quarter, we completed more than $600 million in share repurchases, bringing full year share repurchases to approximately $5 billion. We ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and investments of $17.3 billion and debt of $11.3 billion.

    根據這一影響進行調整後,我們在本季產生了近 8 億美元的調整後自由現金流,全年產生了 46 億美元。高於預期的營運資本和現金稅變化對第四季度自由現金流產生了負面影響。本季度,我們完成了超過 6 億美元的股票回購,使全年股票回購額達到約 50 億美元。本季結束時,我們的現金、現金等價物和投資為 173 億美元,債務為 113 億美元。

  • Before turning to our first quarter and 2024 guidance, I have 2 updates to our guidance approach to share. First, for the time being, we intend to move away from providing annual revenue guidance and instead provide guidance for the upcoming quarter. Given the considerable changes underway at the company, we believe it is prudent to guide revenue 1 quarter ahead and provide updates as the year progresses. Second, the first quarter and 2024 guidance that we're providing today excludes the impact of stock-based compensation from our non-GAAP results. This is consistent with our historical approach.

    在轉向我們的第一季和 2024 年指導之前,我有兩個關於我們的指導方法的更新要分享。首先,我們暫時打算不再提供年度收入指導,而是為下一個季度提供指導。鑑於公司正在發生巨大變化,我們認為,謹慎的做法是提前一個季度指導收入並隨著年度進展提供最新情況。其次,我們今天提供的第一季和 2024 年指引不包括非 GAAP 業績中基於股票的薪酬的影響。這與我們的歷史做法是一致的。

  • Beginning in the first quarter, we will include stock-based compensation expense in our non-GAAP results. We will update our reporting and guidance accordingly at that time. Stock-based compensation is an integral part of our cost structure and one that we believe we need to manage more directly and transparently. Including stock-based compensation expense in our non-GAAP earnings, we'll introduce more accountability and discipline and will align our own performance measures to the way that many investors already evaluate our business.

    從第一季開始,我們將把基於股票的薪資費用納入我們的非公認會計準則績效中。屆時我們將相應地更新我們的報告和指南。股票薪酬是我們成本結構的一個組成部分,我們認為我們需要更直接、更透明地管理。將基於股票的薪酬費用納入我們的非公認會計原則收益中,我們將引入更多的責任和紀律,並將我們自己的績效衡量標準與許多投資者已經評估我們業務的方式保持一致。

  • In terms of our outlook for the first quarter, we expect revenue to increase approximately 6.5% at spot and 7% on a currency-neutral basis. In addition, we expect non-GAAP earnings per share in the first quarter to grow at a mid-single-digit percentage. With respect to our full year financial plan, as we have said previously, with all of the changes we are making, 2024 will be an execution year and one we're positioning the business for long-term success will be critical. For the full year, we are planning for a relatively consistent macroeconomic environment with some level of interest rate declines as we move through the year.

    就我們對第一季的展望而言,我們預計即期營收將成長約 6.5%,在貨幣中性的基礎上成長 7%。此外,我們預計第一季非公認會計準則每股收益將以中個位數百分比成長。關於我們的全年財務計劃,正如我們之前所說,隨著我們正在做出的所有改變,2024 年將是執行年,我們為業務的長期成功定位將至關重要。就全年而言,我們計劃建立一個相對穩定的宏觀經濟環境,並在全年中實現一定程度的利率下降。

  • We also assume that overall consumer spending and activity levels will remain relatively consistent. We expect full year 2024 non-GAAP EPS to be roughly in line with prior year EPS of $5.10. Underpinning our outlook, we expect roughly flat transaction margin dollars. Alex discussed our innovation and product enhancements earlier. Many of these are already in pilot or launch, but will require execution throughout the year before we begin to see impact. Our guidance includes minimal impact from these initiatives. We expect a low single-digit increase in non-transaction operating expense. As Alex mentioned, we announced actions last week to reduce cost to drive continued efficiencies while at the same time, investing more in our product engineering and platform teams to drive growth.

    我們也假設整體消費者支出和活動水準將保持相對一致。我們預計 2024 年全年非 GAAP 每股盈餘將與去年每股收益 5.10 美元大致一致。我們預計交易保證金大致持平,這支撐了我們的前景。亞歷克斯早些時候討論了我們的創新和產品改進。其中許多已經處於試點或啟動階段,但需要全年執行才能開始看到影響。我們的指導意見包括這些舉措的影響最小。我們預計非交易營運費用將出現低個位數成長。正如亞歷克斯所提到的,我們上周宣布了降低成本以持續提高效率的行動,同時增加對產品工程和平台團隊的投資以推動成長。

  • There are 2 factors to be mindful of that will impact our other value-added services revenue. First, while we are still seeing benefit from the higher interest rate environment, we expect that this tailwind will be much less significant in 2024. Second, we continue to take an active and prudent approach to managing our credit exposure. We are carrying lower credit receivables after tightening originations last year. And for our off-balance sheet originations, we are planning for ongoing normalization and loss rates, which will impact the revenue share that we earn.

    有兩個因素會影響我們的其他加值服務收入,需要注意。首先,雖然我們仍然受益於較高的利率環境,但我們預計這種順風在 2024 年將大大減弱。其次,我們繼續採取積極審慎的方法來管理我們的信貸風險。去年收緊信貸投放後,我們的應收信貸帳款有所減少。對於我們的表外起源,我們正在計劃持續正常化和損失率,這將影響我們賺取的收入份額。

  • We expect free cash flow for 2024 to be approximately $5 billion. From a financial policy perspective, we remain committed to maintaining an investment-grade credit rating. Absent inorganic growth opportunities, we expect to continue allocating approximately 70% to 80% of our free cash flow to share buybacks.

    我們預計 2024 年自由現金流約為 50 億美元。從金融政策角度來看,我們仍然致力於維持投資等級信用評等。由於缺乏無機成長機會,我們預計將繼續將約 70% 至 80% 的自由現金流用於股票回購。

  • However, given our strong cash position as we enter the year, we are currently planning for at least $5 billion in share buybacks in 2024. That concludes my prepared remarks. I'll now hand it back over to the operator to begin Q&A.

    然而,鑑於我們在進入今年時擁有強勁的現金狀況,我們目前計劃在 2024 年進行至少 50 億美元的股票回購。我準備好的發言就到此結束。我現在將其交還給操作員以開始問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang of JPMorgan.

    (操作員指示) 您的第一個問題來自摩根大通的黃天欽。

  • Tien-Tsin Huang - Senior Analyst

    Tien-Tsin Huang - Senior Analyst

  • Appreciate all the details here. I wanted to dig in on the outlook for transaction margin dollars to be flat. Can you just give us a little bit more, maybe high-level thoughts on the key drivers there, and maybe some of the levers that are available to you to get the transaction margin dollar growth to accelerate beyond that in 2024. I get a lot of questions about it, obviously. So I'd love to hear the puts and takes that you would underline for us.

    欣賞這裡的所有細節。我想深入研究交易保證金美元持平的前景。您能否給我們提供更多信息,也許是關於關鍵驅動因素的高層想法,也許是一些可以讓您在 2024 年使交易利潤率美元增長加速超過這一水平的槓桿。我得到了很多顯然,有很多關於它的問題。所以我很想聽聽您為我們強調的看跌期權和看跌期權。

  • James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

    James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

  • First, let me start just with recognizing how much change there is that we've gone through. You heard it in my prepared remarks, but we essentially have a brand-new executive leadership team. We've accelerated the pace of innovation. The first-look experience you saw a couple of weeks ago, really was innovation that could have taken months or years that I'm very proud of the team, accelerating and getting done in 60 days. And we are at a point now where even our mindset shift, this focus on profitable growth is something that's new for the organization, and we are grinding away every day. And so with that said, let me unpack the components of transaction margin growth.

    首先,讓我先認識到我們已經經歷了多少變化。你在我準備好的演講中聽到了,但我們本質上擁有一個全新的執行領導團隊。我們加快了創新步伐。您幾週前看到的第一眼體驗確實是創新,這可能需要數月或數年的時間,我為團隊感到非常自豪,在 60 天內加速並完成。現在,我們的思維方式也發生了轉變,對獲利成長的關注對組織來說是新鮮事,我們每天都在努力奮鬥。話雖如此,讓我來分析一下交易利潤成長的組成部分。

  • The way I think about it is there's 3 levers there. The first is really around the branded experience. This is a proven experience for us. It's one that we -- in some of the innovations that we put out, both for merchants that improve their experience as well as consumers with a new app that allows them to get through the experience better. That is a significant lever for us. And one that, to be honest, we've under-invested in. And if I take just specifically the mobile experience for our consumers, has been underwhelming. And it's something that with the new innovations we just rolled out, I expect for us to be able to continue to see improvement there.

    我的想法是有 3 個槓桿。第一個是真正圍繞品牌體驗。這對我們來說是一個經過驗證的經驗。這是我們推出的一些創新,既為商家改善了他們的體驗,也為消費者提供了新的應用程序,使他們能夠更好地獲得體驗。這對我們來說是一個重要的槓桿。老實說,我們在這一方面的投資不足。如果我專門考慮我們消費者的行動體驗,那就沒有給人留下深刻印象。透過我們剛推出的新創新,我希望我們能夠繼續看到改進。

  • The second is around the unbranded processing. This is an area that we have invested significantly in. With Fastlane now, we have really, I believe, one of the best products in the market for our merchants. We're seeing the highest conversion rates out there, and it's something that our merchants are looking for and looking to adopt. We also are looking to move into new areas for growth that have higher margin opportunities such as international and small business. And it allows us to actually have different conversations with our customers and really price to value the product. And the third is really what I'd consider a bucket of value-added services.

    二是圍繞無品牌加工。這是我們投入了大量資金的領域。我相信,現在有了 Fastlane,我們確實為我們的商家提供了市場上最好的產品之一。我們看到了最高的轉換率,這是我們的商家正在尋找並希望採用的東西。我們也尋求進入具有更高利潤機會的新成長領域,例如國際和小型企業。它使我們能夠與客戶進行不同的對話,並真正透過價格來評估產品的價值。第三個確實是我認為的加值服務。

  • This is a combination of improving our flows with our consumers to ensure that we're attaching the products that we need to whether it's Buy Now, Pay Later or our Cashback Mastercard, these are flows that we've not optimized and were underperforming when it comes to really attach.

    這是改善我們與消費者的流程的結合,以確保我們將所需的產品附加到無論是立即購買、稍後付款還是我們的現金返還萬事達卡,這些流程我們尚未優化並且在優化時表現不佳真正附著。

  • And then some of the new offerings that we rolled out, you saw our advanced offerings platform as well as smart receipts. These are all ways that we can monetize and improve the connection between our merchants and consumers. So that's different ways that I think about the components.

    然後我們推出了一些新產品,您看到了我們的高級產品平台以及智慧收據。這些都是我們可以貨幣化並改善商家和消費者之間聯繫的方式。這就是我思考組件的不同方式。

  • Jamie S. Miller - Executive VP & CFO

    Jamie S. Miller - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. And Tien-Tsin, I'll jump in on the '24 specific puts and takes on transaction margin dollars. And first, you heard us both say earlier that on the initiatives that Alex has been talking about, we have included limited impact on that in our guidance. But if I pull back, really, we're viewing largely steady trends to what you saw last year, maybe in slightly different proportions. So Branded Checkout being a healthy contributor to growth, improvement in our PSP margin profile. We expect some benefit in our interest income on customer balances, but really, that should be much smaller than what we saw last year. And we do expect some headwinds to our credit revenue, which as I think, as I mentioned in the script on the call, with loss rate normalization happening to pre-pandemic levels and that trend is starting to work.

    是的。 Tien-Tsin,我將重點介紹 24 年交易保證金美元的具體看跌期權和認購期權。首先,您之前聽到我們都說過,關於亞歷克斯一直在談論的舉措,我們在我們的指導中納入了有限的影響。但如果我退一步說,實際上,我們看到的趨勢與你去年看到的基本穩定,也許比例略有不同。因此,Branded Checkout 為我們 PSP 利潤狀況的成長和改善做出了健康的貢獻。我們預計客戶餘額的利息收入會得到一些好處,但實際上,這應該比我們去年看到的要小得多。我們確實預計我們的信貸收入會遇到一些阻力,正如我在電話會議腳本中提到的那樣,隨著損失率正常化到大流行前的水平,這種趨勢正在開始發揮作用。

  • We'll just see lower rev share from our partnerships in that space. And then offsetting that, we really see also that some of our smaller product lines in the aggregate will be a drag on TM. This will be to a much lower extent than last year. But in areas where we do platform consolidation, there are times we deprecate products to really push customers to new platforms.

    我們只會看到我們在該領域的合作夥伴關係帶來的收益份額較低。然後抵消這一點,我們確實也看到,我們的一些較小的產品線總體上將拖累TM。這將比去年​​低得多。但在我們進行平台整合的領域,有時我們會棄用產品,以真正將客戶推向新平台。

  • Good example of that is PPCP, we do see some drop-off. And we've got a few other products that, as you know, we have not invested as heavily as perhaps we should have in the last couple of years. And as we work our way through that, there'll be some offset there.

    PPCP 就是一個很好的例子,我們確實看到了一些下降。我們還有一些其他產品,如您所知,我們在過去幾年中沒有進行應有的大量投資。當我們努力解決這個問題時,就會有一些抵消。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America.

    您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Jason Kupferberg。

  • Jason Alan Kupferberg - MD in US Equity Research & Senior Analyst

    Jason Alan Kupferberg - MD in US Equity Research & Senior Analyst

  • I wanted to hone in on branded TPV growth a bit. I think it slowed by 1 point in the fourth quarter to 5%. Was hoping you could maybe take us through some of the monthly intra-quarter trends there, any market share observations you might have had from holiday season. And then just some general comments on what you're planning for on branded TPV growth in the first quarter and full year '24?

    我想稍微關注品牌冠捷的成長。我認為第四季放緩了1個百分點至5%。希望您能帶我們了解那裡的一些每月季度內趨勢,以及您在假期期間可能獲得的任何市場份額觀察結果。然後是關於您對 24 年第一季和全年品牌 TPV 成長的計劃的一些一般性評論?

  • James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

    James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Jason. Let me set the context and I'll see if Jamie wants to pile on. Our branded checkout performance was 6% for the year. It's been pretty consistent. And for what we're looking going into next year, we're expecting it to be consistent as well. And as we've talked about, that doesn't include or includes minimal aspects of the new innovations that we put out there.

    謝謝,傑森。讓我先介紹一下背景,然後看看傑米是否願意繼續說下去。今年我們的品牌結帳績效為 6%。一直很一致。對於我們明年的展望,我們希望它也能保持一致。正如我們所討論的,這不包括或包括我們在那裡推出的新創新的最小方面。

  • Let me talk about just some of the levers when it comes to the new innovations or ways that I think about accelerating branded checkout because this obviously is going to be a big focus for the organization. The first is we really have to improve the value proposition for our consumers. This is why you see us leaning into rewards, ensuring that we've got an improved experience that reduces latency and really leaning in on mobile as well so that our consumers have a better branded checkout experience.

    讓我談談我認為加速品牌結帳的新創新或方法的一些槓桿,因為這顯然將成為組織的一大焦點。首先,我們確實必須改善消費者的價值主張。這就是為什麼我們傾向於獎勵,確保我們獲得改進的體驗,減少延遲,並真正依賴行動設備,以便我們的消費者擁有更好的品牌結帳體驗。

  • Second, the acceleration of Fastlane when it comes to our merchants not only improves the unbranded opportunity where we can see 70% of the customers that come through the Fastlane experience, but allows us to have a second engagement with our customers and bring them back into a branded experience at a later date, show them all the different reasons why they should be using PayPal or getting a reward back for a purchase that they made.

    其次,對於我們的商家而言,Fastlane 的加速不僅改善了無品牌的機會,我們可以看到 70% 的客戶透過 Fastlane 體驗,而且使我們能夠與客戶進行第二次接觸,並將他們帶回稍後的品牌體驗,向他們展示為什麼他們應該使用PayPal 或獲得購買獎勵的所有不同原因。

  • So I think these, again, are just a couple of examples of innovations that we're leaning into now that allow us to really focus on that branded experience.

    因此,我認為這些只是我們現在正在研究的幾個創新範例,這些創新使我們能夠真正專注於品牌體驗。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Darrin Peller with Wolfe Research.

    您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Darrin Peller。

  • Darrin David Peller - MD & Senior Analyst

    Darrin David Peller - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Alex, Jamie, just to follow up a bit on some of this train of thought. I mean I know you're mentioning you're not incorporating these new initiatives in your transaction profit growth thoughts for this year. But when we think about some of these -- I mean most of these to your point, Alex, are going to be beneficial to gross profit growth. And so I guess we'd love to hear a little bit more around what you'd measure us, how you would measure success, whether it's the PPCP initiatives or unbranded as well as the branded checkout experience, what KPI should we look for? And I guess a little bit more on timing. If not this year, when do you want investors to expect some traction in actual gross profit re-acceleration?

    亞歷克斯、傑米,只是為了跟進這個思路。我的意思是,我知道您提到您不會將這些新舉措納入今年的交易利潤成長想法中。但當我們考慮其中的一些因素時——我的意思是,亞歷克斯,按照你的觀點,其中大部分因素將有利於毛利的增長。因此,我想我們很樂意聽到更多關於您衡量我們的內容,您如何衡量成功,無論是 PPCP 計劃還是非品牌以及品牌結帳體驗,我們應該尋找什麼 KPI?我想更多的是關於時機。如果不是今年,您希望投資者什麼時候預期實際毛利重新加速會有所成長?

  • James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

    James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Well, thank you, Darrin. And look, let me be clear. We are not putting in the expectations into the guidance until we see execution. We just think it's prudent for us to put points on the board before we put it into the guidance. That said, the teams are grinding on this every single day. We are having conversations with our merchants and introducing them. As I mentioned on the call, the reaction has been quite encouraging from the innovations. There is demand in the market, and we are starting right now. And I will tell you, the conversations that we're having now that we're focused on both innovations that are driving demand as well as improvements for these merchants are different than we've had in the past. So I just want you to know, we are working now on this, and we will update you as we start to see points on the board and adjust our guidance as needed.

    是的。好吧,謝謝你,達林。讓我說清楚。在看到執行之前,我們不會將期望納入指導。我們只是認為,在將其納入指南之前,先將觀點放在董事會上是謹慎的做法。也就是說,團隊每天都在努力解決這個問題。我們正在與我們的商家進行對話並介紹他們。正如我在電話中提到的,這些創新的反應非常令人鼓舞。市場有需求,我們現在就開始。我會告訴你,我們現在所進行的對話與過去不同,我們專注於推動需求的創新以及對這些商家的改進。所以我只是想讓你知道,我們現在正在努力解決這個問題,當我們開始看到板上的要點並根據需要調整我們的指導時,我們會向你通報最新情況。

  • Secondly, back to your first question around how I think about this. Look, the thing I want you to take away from all of this innovation that we rolled out in first look is this is really changing the way we engage with our customers and our merchants. We are now creating experiences across the entire customer life cycle, not just at checkout. So we are driving not only a checkout improvement, the 50% improvement in latency being able to improve Fastlane, but now we're starting to see a customer value proposition with CashPass, giving rewards back to our customers so that they have a reason to choose PayPal at every purchase. We're improving the onboarding and the reboarding as they come back into the app and start to now attach our Mastercard or debit experiences or Buy Now, Pay Later. We're improving the post-purchase experience where we now have smart receipts or package tracking so that we can improve the engagement between our merchants and our consumers, and we now have an ongoing active use engagement.

    其次,回到你的第一個問題,我是如何看待這個問題的。聽著,我希望您從我們第一眼推出的所有這些創新中學到的一點是,這確實改變了我們與客戶和商家互動的方式。我們現在正在整個客戶生命週期中創造體驗,而不僅僅是結帳時。因此,我們不僅推動結帳改進,延遲時間改善了 50%,從而改善了 Fastlane,而且現在我們開始看到 CashPass 的客戶價值主張,將獎勵回饋給我們的客戶,以便他們有理由每次購買時都選擇PayPal。當他們回到應用程式並開始附加我們的萬事達卡或金融卡體驗或「立即購買,稍後付款」時,我們正在改進登入和重新登入。我們正在改善購買後體驗,現在我們擁有智慧收據或包裹跟踪,以便我們可以改善商家和消費者之間的互動,並且我們現在擁有持續的積極使用互動。

  • And then we're leaning into demand generation and actually solving the biggest challenge that our merchants have, which is finding new customers as we think about our Advanced Offers Platform or creating shopper insights so that our merchants can start to engage and personalize their experience through our data and through the AI that we can lean through. So the way I think about it is we are looking at the entire end-to-end experience, and we'll measure our success through the metrics that you have. It's going to turn into what does transaction margin look like? What are -- what does active use look like from our ongoing users? So that's how we think about it.

    然後,我們致力於需求生成,並實際解決我們的商家面臨的最大挑戰,即在我們考慮高級優惠平台時尋找新客戶或創建購物者洞察,以便我們的商家可以開始透過以下方式參與和個性化他們的體驗我們的數據以及我們可以藉鏡的人工智慧。所以我的想法是,我們正在關注整個端到端體驗,我們將透過您擁有的指標來衡量我們的成功。它將變成交易保證金是什麼樣的?我們的持續用戶的活躍使用是什麼樣的?這就是我們的想法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Michael Ng with Goldman Sachs.

    你的下一個問題來自高盛的 Michael Ng。

  • Michael Ng - Research Analyst

    Michael Ng - Research Analyst

  • I wanted to ask a question about PayPal's commitment to durable, high-quality profitable growth. How does that impact the pricing strategy in Braintree? What unprofitable is the system products will PayPal deemphasize? And how does that tie into your 2024 non-transaction OpEx outlook of flat?

    我想問一個有關 PayPal 對持久、高品質獲利成長的承諾的問題。這對 Braintree 的定價策略有何影響? PayPal會淡化哪些無利可圖的系統產品?這與您對 2024 年非交易營運支出持平的展望有何關係?

  • James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

    James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

  • Great. Thanks, Mike. Let me talk about Braintree and then I'll have Jamie talk about potentially some of the other products and businesses. So let me take you back. Braintree, if you go back a few years ago, was really trying to establish itself in the market. It hasn't delivered at scale, and there were gaps in the product. We've invested heavily in the product and have really focused on some of the largest U.S. enterprise customers, which now have proven the scale while we've gotten the product to parity. Then you look at what we just rolled out with innovations like Fastlane, I think we've now leapfrogged the competition.

    偉大的。謝謝,麥克。讓我談談布倫特里,然後我會讓傑米談談可能的其他一些產品和業務。那麼就讓我帶你回去吧。如果你回到幾年前,布倫特里確實在試圖在市場上立足。它尚未大規模交付,並且產品存在差距。我們在該產品上投入了大量資金,並真正專注於一些最大的美國企業客戶,這些客戶現在已經證明了我們的產品的規模,同時我們已經使產品達到了同等水平。然後你看看我們剛推出的 Fastlane 等創新產品,我認為我們現在已經超越了競爭對手。

  • So what does that allow us to do? It allows us to be the one-stop shop for merchants, it allows us to provide a best-in-class experience on auth rates and give them the ability to have not only the best processing and unbranded, but also package that with PayPal and with all the other ways that customers want to pay, including Buy Now, Pay Later.

    那我們可以做什麼呢?它使我們能夠成為商家的一站式商店,使我們能夠在驗證率方面提供一流的體驗,並使他們不僅能夠獲得最佳的處理和無品牌服務,還能夠將其與 PayPal 和客戶想要的所有其他付款方式,包括立即購買、稍後付款。

  • We now are shifting towards being able to have a price-to-value conversation with our merchants and being able to really start to think about how will we ramp up go to market for not only Braintree, but also PPCP.

    我們現在正在轉向能夠與我們的商家進行價格與價值的對話,並能夠真正開始思考如何不僅將 Braintree 推向市場,而且還將 PPCP 推向市場。

  • We also are now moving into markets that have higher margins. So international and small business with both Braintree and PPCP allow us to now, again, price to value and have different conversations. So that is how we think about it. We're not focused on unprofitable growth when it comes to Braintree. We think we now have the product in market to be able to compete effectively and win.

    我們現在也正在進入利潤率更高的市場。因此,擁有 Braintree 和 PPCP 的國際和小型企業現在使我們能夠再次按價值定價並進行不同的對話。這就是我們的想法。對於 Braintree,我們並不關注無利可圖的成長。我們認為我們現在在市場上擁有能夠有效競爭並獲勝的產品。

  • Jamie S. Miller - Executive VP & CFO

    Jamie S. Miller - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. And Mike, on the other part of your question, I guess what I'd say is we are just doing too many things. And our biggest opportunity is that we have to make decisions to stop things and to really focus and that gets into market competitiveness. It gets into pricing, it gets into really leaning into market opportunity and really stopping doing things that prevent us from doing the right thing in those spaces. So we are knee deep in that right now. And so when we talk about a year of transformation and execution, that's exactly what we're talking about.

    是的。麥克,關於你問題的另一部分,我想我想說的是我們只是做了太多的事情。我們最大的機會是我們必須做出決定來停止事情並真正集中精力,從而提高市場競爭力。它涉及到定價,它涉及真正傾向於市場機會,並真正停止做那些阻止我們在這些領域做正確事情的事情。所以我們現在正深陷其中。因此,當我們談論一年的轉型和執行時,這正是我們所談論的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

    您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的拉姆齊·阿薩爾 (Ramsey El-Assal)。

  • Ramsey Clark El-Assal - Research Analyst

    Ramsey Clark El-Assal - Research Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about how much leeway or opportunity you have to continue kind of taking out expenses while simultaneously executing on the growth strategy? How are you thinking about striking that balance sort of cost control versus growth? And I guess, how confident are you that you have room to do both?

    我想問一下,在執行成長策略的同時,您有多少空間或機會繼續削減開支?您如何考慮在成本控制與成長之間取得平衡?我想,您對自己有空間同時完成這兩件事有多大信心?

  • Jamie S. Miller - Executive VP & CFO

    Jamie S. Miller - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, I would say that is definitely an and, not an or. And that's exactly what we're doing with the workforce announcements we made a week ago and really taking that and putting that back into product into engineering and into marketing, we have got to invest deeply to grow this place. And it's really important for us to just set the company up for the future. And to do that, the innovation muscle, the commercial muscle means that rightsizing our expense levels isn't going to be something that we -- that is a won and done.

    是的,我想說這絕對是一個“與”,而不是一個“或”。這正是我們一周前發布的勞動力公告所做的,並真正將其重新投入到產品、工程和行銷中,我們必須進行深入投資來發展這個地方。對我們來說,為公司的未來做好準備非常重要。要做到這一點,創新力量、商業力量意味著調整我們的開支水平不會成為我們的目標——這是一個勝利和完成的事情。

  • We know we have significant opportunity to continue to be more efficient, be that through automation, be that through driving deeper productivity. And as we harvest that, that just gives us more levers to invest that are -- the right things for our profile as we go forward.

    我們知道,我們有很大的機會繼續提高效率,無論是透過自動化,還是透過提高生產力。當我們收穫這一點時,這只會為我們提供更多的投資槓桿——隨著我們的前進,這些投資對我們的形象來說是正確的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

    您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 James Faucette。

  • James Eugene Faucette - MD

    James Eugene Faucette - MD

  • James, a quick clarification and I have a question for Alex. But you said that starting from the first quarter, you'll be including stock-based compensation in your non-GAAP rather than excluding it. So does that mean that if we just imagine that we fast forward a few months, that the non-GAAP earnings would be reduced by roughly that $1.8 billion. Just looking for a little bit of clarification there.

    詹姆斯,請快速澄清一下,我有一個問題要問亞歷克斯。但您表示,從第一季開始,您將在非公認會計準則中納入基於股票的薪酬,而不是排除它。那麼,這是否意味著如果我們快轉幾個月,非 GAAP 收益將減少約 18 億美元。只是在那裡尋找一點澄清。

  • And then, Alex, you made an interesting comment in terms of like feeling things are too big organizationally. But I'm wondering how you're feeling about the tech stack right now and the level of integration and where we're at from that perspective in terms of your ability to drive the kinds of improvements and perhaps add functionality to improve the customer experience.

    然後,亞歷克斯,你做了一個有趣的評論,感覺事情在組織上太大了。但我想知道您現在對技術堆疊和整合水平有何看法,以及從這個角度來看,我們在推動各種改進以及可能添加功能以改善客戶體驗的能力方面處於什麼位置。

  • Jamie S. Miller - Executive VP & CFO

    Jamie S. Miller - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, James, on your first question, you have it exactly right. So beginning in the first quarter, we'll start including stock-based compensation expense in our non-GAAP and closer to that time, we'll do the look back where we'll provide the retrospective data so that we've got everything on a comparable basis. But yes, you're thinking about that right.

    是的,詹姆斯,關於你的第一個問題,你說得完全正確。因此,從第一季開始,我們將開始將基於股票的薪酬費用納入我們的非公認會計準則中,接近那個時間時,我們將進行回顧,提供回顧性數據,以便我們掌握一切在可比較的基礎上。但是,是的,你的想法是對的。

  • James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

    James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

  • And then, James, on your question around the tech stack. Look, I'll be transparent. The company has gone through significant growth over the last few years and a lot of acquisitions. We have not invested enough in creating a single platform. That again slows us down when it comes to innovation, and it slows us down when it comes to being able to leverage the data across the ecosystem. We are investing heavily in that now and starting to see real improvement.

    然後,詹姆斯,關於你關於技術堆疊的問題。聽著,我會變得透明。該公司在過去幾年中經歷了顯著成長和大量收購。我們在創建單一平台方面投入不夠。這再次拖慢了我們的創新速度,也拖慢了我們在整個生態系統中利用數據的速度。我們現在正在這方面投入巨資,並開始看到真正的改善。

  • I mentioned a couple of things on the call, but really being able to put out a reporting system that now sees across the entire ecosystem, being able to see a single view of the customer so that now we can provide innovations to customers but also actually be able to cross-sell and be able to say, "hey, this is a customer that has this risk profile and should be in these 2 or 3 different products", is a huge win for us as we start to consolidate. It also just accelerates our engineering velocity, being able to have a services-based engineering team that can build once and deploy across the entire ecosystem is the direction that we're heading in. And so you started to see that. We -- even the innovations that we just put out over the last couple of weeks weren't really possible without us being investing heavily in the platform. But I also would say we have a ways to go. And so it's a primary focus for me and the organization and will drive velocity and efficiency.

    我在電話會議上提到了幾件事,但真正能夠推出一個現在可以看到整個生態系統的報告系統,能夠看到客戶的單一視圖,這樣我們現在就可以為客戶提供創新,而且實際上能夠交叉銷售並能夠說,“嘿,這是一個具有這種風險狀況的客戶,應該使用這2 或3 種不同的產品”,這對我們來說是一個巨大的勝利,因為我們開始整合。它還加快了我們的工程速度,能夠擁有一個基於服務的工程團隊,可以建置一次並在整個生態系統中部署,這就是我們前進的方向。所以你開始看到這一點。如果我們不對該平台進行大量投資,即使是過去幾週我們剛剛推出的創新也是不可能實現的。但我也想說,我們還有很長的路要走。因此,這是我和組織的主要關注點,並將提高速度和效率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of David Togut with Evercore ISI.

    您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

  • David Mark Togut - Senior MD

    David Mark Togut - Senior MD

  • A major regulatory change in payments just went through in Europe with Apple opening up its iOS and NFC chip for physical point-of-sale payments. What opportunity does this present to PayPal?

    隨著蘋果開放其 iOS 和 NFC 晶片用於實體銷售點支付,歐洲剛剛經歷了一項重大的支付監管變革。這為 PayPal 帶來了什麼機會?

  • James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

    James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks for the question, David. We are tracking this closely. Apple is a great partner of ours. And our customers that love PayPal on the online e-commerce side are demanding -- being able to have an omnichannel and off-line solution as well. So we'll be working closely on this. And when it is available, we will be ready to be able to deliver for our customers, both online and off-line.

    是的。謝謝你的提問,大衛。我們正在密切跟踪此事。蘋果是我們偉大的合作夥伴。我們在線上電子商務方面喜愛 PayPal 的客戶也要求能夠擁有全通路和線下解決方案。所以我們將在這方面密切合作。當它可用時,我們將準備好為我們的客戶提供線上和線下服務。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW.

    您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。

  • Sanjay Harkishin Sakhrani - MD

    Sanjay Harkishin Sakhrani - MD

  • Alex, one more on the initiatives. I'm just trying to think through the prioritization of these additional investments you'll be making. Of those 6 initiatives, which do you think will sort of yield the returns quickest? And maybe a little bit more on timing of them, maybe not 2024, but how early?

    亞歷克斯,再介紹一下這些舉措。我只是想考慮一下您將進行的這些額外投資的優先順序。在這 6 項舉措中,您認為哪一項見效最快?也許更多關於它們的時間安排,也許不是 2024 年,但有多早呢?

  • And then, Jamie, just a quick question on the interest rates. I think you mentioned, you don't expect it to have a big impact or as big an impact in 2024, but is there an explicit rate forecast you have? Like do you have lower rates in 2024?

    然後,傑米,我想問一個關於利率的簡單問題。我想你提到過,你預計它不會在 2024 年產生很大的影響或那麼大的影響,但是你有明確的利率預測嗎?例如 2024 年你們的利率會更低嗎?

  • James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

    James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

  • So all of the innovations are incredibly exciting for us, but let me be specific on your question. The two that I am closely watching and our teams are executing on immediately is really a focus on the branded experience. This is both for the combination of merchants and consumers, easing that experience for a customer to choose PayPal, have a reward that comes back to them, ensure that they're able to get through the experience with velocity and check out every time with PayPal, is a huge focus for us, and that's where we are driving a new app experience. And again, all of these innovations will be coming out over the next couple of weeks to months.

    所以所有的創新對我們來說都非常令人興奮,但讓我具體回答你的問題。我正在密切關注並且我們的團隊正在立即執行的兩個項目實際上是對品牌體驗的關注。這對商家和消費者來說都是有利的,可以簡化客戶選擇 PayPal 的體驗,獲得回報,確保他們能夠快速完成體驗並每次使用 PayPal 結帳,是我們的一個巨大關注點,這也是我們推動新應用體驗的地方。再說一次,所有這些創新都將在接下來的幾週到幾個月內推出。

  • Then we have to drive adoption. So that is having conversations with merchants, ensuring that they're upgrading to our latest innovations, that's ensuring that we make it easy for them as well. So that's why you've seen us launch a new developer portal. We're creating no-code, low-code experiences so developers can take the demand that they've shown because they have a best-in-class experience now and get it into market. So step one is I'm very focused on that branded experience.

    然後我們必須推動採用。因此,這就是與商家進行對話,確保他們升級到我們最新的創新,這也確保我們也為他們提供便利。這就是您看到我們推出新的開發者入口網站的原因。我們正在創建無程式碼、低程式碼體驗,以便開發人員可以滿足他們所表現出的需求,因為他們現在擁有一流的體驗,並將其推向市場。所以第一步是我非常專注於品牌體驗。

  • The second one is on the unbranded side, which is ensuring that Fastlane gets rolled out. That, to me, starts to create an interesting network effect of us being able to have not only a branded experience, but for them, those consumers that pass a branded experience, whether it's ours or anyone else's and want to just go through a guest checkout flow, we're able to identify them, we're able to help them and our merchants complete the transaction. And then we're able to have a follow-up conversation with that customer as well because they've gone through our Fastlane experience. So those 2 to me, we need to get rolled out, we need to get points on the board and show that it's driving, but driving outcomes, but that is where I'm most focused on right now.

    第二個是無品牌方面,確保 Fastlane 的推出。對我來說,這開始創造一種有趣的網路效應,我們不僅能夠擁有品牌體驗,而且對於那些傳遞品牌體驗的消費者來說,無論是我們的還是其他人的,並且只想透過客人在結帳流程中,我們能夠辨識他們,我們能夠幫助他們和我們的商家完成交易。然後我們也能夠與該客戶進行後續對話,因為他們已經經歷了我們的快速通道體驗。所以對我來說,這兩個,我們需要推出,我們需要在董事會上得分並表明它正在推動,但推動結果,但這是我現在最關注的地方。

  • Jamie S. Miller - Executive VP & CFO

    Jamie S. Miller - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. And Sanjay, on the interest rate question, we do expect that the interest income on customer balances will have a strong growth this year, but really it will be more first half-focused. The second half, we do expect a series of rate cuts that is assumed in our macroeconomic scenario that underpins our guide, and that's why the second half should be much lighter on that front.

    是的。 Sanjay,關於利率問題,我們確實預計今年客戶餘額的利息收入將強勁增長,但實際上會更集中於上半年。下半年,我們確實預計會出現一系列降息,這是在我們的宏觀經濟情景中假設的,這支撐了我們的指導,這就是為什麼下半年在這方面應該要輕得多。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That is all the time we have for questions. I will turn it to Alex Chriss for closing remarks.

    這就是我們提問的全部時間。我將請亞歷克斯·克里斯 (Alex Chriss) 發表結束語。

  • James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

    James Alexander Chriss - President, CEO & Director

  • Fantastic. Thank you, Sarah, and thank you all for joining us today. I want to reemphasize that 2024 is going to be a transition year focused on execution to position our business for long-term success. I'm excited with where we're positioned in the market, and I know that there is a real opportunity to grow our role in commerce. We're driving the foundational and transformative changes that will set the company up for the future. Thank you.

    極好的。謝謝莎拉,也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我想再次強調,2024 年將是一個過渡年,重點是執行力,以確保我們的業務長期成功。我對我們在市場中的定位感到興奮,而且我知道這是一個真正的機會來擴大我們在商業中的作用。我們正在推動基礎性和變革性變革,為公司的未來奠定基礎。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。