菲利普莫里斯國際 (PM) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Philip Morris International Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Philip Morris International management and a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Media representatives on the call will also be invited to ask questions at the conclusion of questions from the investment community. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. James Bushnell, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communications. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加菲利普莫里斯國際公司 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續約 1 小時，包括菲利普莫里斯國際公司管理層的講話和問答環節。 （操作員說明）在投資界提問結束時，還將邀請參加電話會議的媒體代表提問。我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係和財經傳播副總裁詹姆斯·布什內爾先生。請繼續，先生。

Welcome. Thank you for joining us. Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2023 second quarter results. The press release is available on our website at pmi.com. A glossary of terms, including the definition for smoke-free products as well as adjustments, other calculations and reconciliations to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures for non-GAAP financial measures cited in this presentation and additional net revenue data are available in Exhibit 99.2 to the company's Form 8-K dated July 20, 2023, and on our Investor Relations website.

歡迎。感謝您加入我們。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含有關 2023 年第二季度業績的詳細信息。該新聞稿可在我們的網站 pmi.com 上獲取。本演示文稿中引用的術語表，包括無菸產品的定義以及調整、其他計算和與最直接可比的美國公認會計原則非公認會計原則財務指標的計算和調節，以及其他淨收入數據，請參見公司 2023 年 7 月 20 日的 8-K 表格的附件 99.2 以及我們的投資者關係網站。

Growth rates presented on an organic basis reflects currency-neutral adjusted results excluding acquisitions and disposals. As such, figures and comparisons presented on an organic basis exclude Swedish Match up until November 11, 2023. Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results. I direct your attention to the Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements. It is now my pleasure to introduce Emmanuel Babeau, our Chief Financial Officer. Over to you, Emmanuel.

在有機基礎上呈現的增長率反映了貨幣中性調整後的結果，不包括收購和處置。因此，截至 2023 年 11 月 11 日，有機呈現的數據和比較不包括瑞典火柴。今天的言論包含前瞻性陳述和對未來結果的預測。我請您注意今天的演示文稿和新聞稿中披露的前瞻性和警示性聲明，以審查可能導致實際結果與預測或前瞻性聲明存在重大差異的各種因素。現在我很高興向大家介紹我們的首席財務官 Emmanuel Babeau。交給你了，伊曼紐爾。

Thank you, James, and welcome, everyone. Our business delivered outstanding performance in the second quarter of 2023, exceeding our expectations to reach a record high quarterly adjusted diluted EPS of $1.60. This was driven by impressive ZYN and IQOS growth, coupled with strong combustible results. We delivered total cigarette and HTU shipment volume growth of plus 3.3%, putting us well on track for our third consecutive year of positive volumes.

謝謝詹姆斯，歡迎大家。我們的業務在 2023 年第二季度表現出色，超出了我們的預期，達到創紀錄的季度調整稀釋每股收益 1.60 美元。這是由令人印象深刻的 ZYN 和 IQOS 增長以及強勁的可燃業績推動的。我們的捲煙和 HTU 發貨總量增長了 3.3% 以上，使我們有望連續第三年實現正銷量。

This excellent result underpinned double-digit organic top line growth and high teens currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth. We also expanded our leadership in smoke-free product in the period. Firstly, IQOS' strong momentum continued with adjusted in-market sales volume ahead by led by plus 16% and shipments up by plus 27%. This reflects very good user growth of plus 1.4 million in the quarter and continued strong traction across the world. This is increasingly driven by IQOS ILUMA, which is now available in 23 markets, representing around 2/3 of our IQOS business by volume. Secondly, and now 2 full quarters after the Swedish Match acquisition, ZYN is delivering an exceptional acceleration to our smoke-free business. U.S. volumes grew by over plus 50%, including a notable step-up in June. We are delighted with this performance.

這一出色的業績支撐了兩位數的有機營收增長和高十幾歲的貨幣中性調整後攤薄每股收益增長。在此期間，我們還擴大了在無菸產品領域的領先地位。首先，IQOS繼續保持強勁勢頭，調整後的市場銷量增長了16%以上，出貨量增長了27%以上。這反映出本季度用戶增長超過 140 萬，並且在全球範圍內持續保持強勁的吸引力。這越來越受到 IQOS ILUMA 的推動，該產品現已在 23 個市場銷售，按銷量計算約占我們 IQOS 業務的 2/3。其次，在收購瑞典火柴後整整兩個季度，ZYN 正在為我們的無菸業務帶來非凡的加速。美國的銷量增長了 50% 以上，其中 6 月份的增幅顯著。我們對這次表演感到很高興。

Our combustible business also delivered better-than-expected results with over plus 7% organic net revenue growth after a very robust quarter for pricing and resilient volume. This was a key contributor to the strong plus 7% organic operating income growth with a plus 210 basis points sequential improvement in our adjusted operating income margin.

我們的可燃業務也取得了好於預期的業績，在定價和銷量強勁的季度之後，有機淨收入增長超過 7%。這是有機營業收入強勁增長 7% 以上的關鍵因素，調整後的營業收入利潤率環比提高了 210 個基點。

Turning to the headline numbers. Positive volumes supported very strong organic top line growth of plus 10.5%, with continued excellent IQOS momentum and a further acceleration in combustible pricing. This does not include the remarkable plus 19% pro forma ex currency top line growth of Swedish Match led by ZYN, with combined pro forma ex currency net revenues increasing by plus 11.1%. Our total reported currency-neutral net revenues grew by plus 19%. Our organic net revenue per unit grew by plus 7%, driven by the increasing proportion of IQOS HTUs in our sales mix and combustible pricing. Due to these positive factors, adjusted operating income grew by a very robust plus 7% organically despite continued inflationary headwinds. This excludes the tremendous growth of ZYN, and starting in Q4, our organic result will include Swedish Match. Adjusted OI margins improved plus 210 basis points sequentially and while still organically lower year-on-year by 140 basis points, this better-than-expected performance was notably supported by combustible strength and favorable timing of certain costs.

轉向標題數字。憑藉持續出色的 IQOS 勢頭和可燃物定價的進一步加速，積極的銷量支持了非常強勁的有機收入增長（超過 10.5%）。這還不包括 ZYN 領導的瑞典火柴 (Swedish Match) 顯著的 19% 預計外幣收入增長，預計外幣淨收入合計增長 11.1% 以上。我們報告的扣除貨幣因素的淨收入總額增長了 19% 以上。由於 IQOS HTU 在我們的銷售組合中所佔比例不斷增加以及可燃物定價的推動，我們的單位有機淨收入增長了 7% 以上。由於這些積極因素，儘管通脹逆風持續，調整後營業收入有機增長了 7%，非常強勁。這不包括 ZYN 的巨大增長，從第四季度開始，我們的有機結果將包括瑞典火柴。調整後的 OI 利潤率環比提高了 210 個基點，雖然同比仍有機下降 140 個基點，但這種好於預期的業績主要受到可燃強度和某些成本的有利時機的支持。

We also increased our participation in the below Tier 1 segment in Indonesia, which now represents close to 40% of its industry volumes and is slightly dilutive to our margins. This organic delivery, including the favorable timing of cost, combined with exceptional June ZYN volume and a lower tax rate, allowed us to outperform our most recent Q2 forecast. We delivered adjusted diluted EPS of $1.60, representing plus 16.9% growth, excluding an unfavorable currency impact of $0.13, notably due to the Japanese yen.

我們還增加了對印度尼西亞一級以下細分市場的參與，該細分市場目前佔其行業銷量的近 40%，並且略微稀釋了我們的利潤。這種有機交付，包括有利的成本時機，加上 6 月份 ZYN 的出色銷量和較低的稅率，使我們能夠超越我們最近的第二季度預測。我們的調整後攤薄每股收益為 1.60 美元，增長 16.9%，不包括 0.13 美元的不利貨幣影響（主要是日元造成的影響）。

While the first quarter of the year contained some exceptional headwinds and distortion due to timing and comparison effects, our business delivered a strong first half, including volume growth of plus 1.1%. Organic net revenues grew by plus 6.8%, with Swedish Match's excellent ex currency pro forma net revenue growth of plus 17% for H1 demonstrating its growth accretion to our business. Combined pro forma currency-neutral net revenue increased by around plus 7.5%.

儘管由於時間和比較效應，今年第一季度出現了一些特殊的阻力和扭曲，但我們的業務上半年表現強勁，銷量增長了 1.1% 以上。有機淨收入增長了 6.8% 以上，瑞典火柴上半年的預計淨收入增長了 17%，表現出色，這證明了其對我們業務的增長作用。預計扣除貨幣因素後的淨收入增長約 7.5%。

Following peak margin headwinds and a notable operating income decline in the first quarter, the strong improvement in Q2 narrowed the H1 organic decline to minus 2%. As in Q2, this excludes Swedish Match which delivered an excellent profit performance and made a significant contribution to our adjusted OI margin. We expect continued strong reported and organic operating income growth in the second half.

繼第一季度利潤率峰值逆風和營業收入顯著下降之後，第二季度的強勁改善將上半年有機降幅收窄至-2%。與第二季度一樣，這不包括瑞典火柴，該火柴提供了出色的利潤表現，並對我們調整後的 OI 利潤率做出了重大貢獻。我們預計下半年報告和有機營業收入將繼續強勁增長。

Despite these headwinds, we delivered plus 5.9% growth in currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS to $2.98 in H1, providing a strong platform for the second half of 2023 and beyond. Let me now walk through the mechanics of our Q2 net revenues. While not included in our reported shipment volume growth of plus 3.3%, Swedish Match's smoke-free volume grew by plus 15%, providing impressive accretion to our overall growth profile. Combustible and HTU pricing contributed plus 6 points of growth. This primarily reflects combustible strength, partly benefiting from timing effect.

儘管存在這些不利因素，我們上半年的貨幣中性調整後稀釋每股收益增長了 5.9%，達到 2.98 美元，為 2023 年下半年及以後提供了一個強大的平台。現在讓我介紹一下我們第二季度淨收入的機制。雖然瑞典火柴的無菸銷量增長了 15%，但未計入我們報告的 3.3% 的出貨量增長中，為我們的整體增長提供了令人印象深刻的增長。可燃物和 HTU 定價貢獻了 6 個百分點的增長。這主要反映了可燃強度，部分受益於時間效應。

As in Q1, HTU pricing was impacted in Japan and Germany by the annualization of 2022 excise tax increase. And in the case of Japan, the transition to ILUMA. These factors will have less impact in the second half as annualization recedes. We also continue to expect greater visibility on the likely outcome of the court ruling related to the German tax surcharge toward the end of the year. The increasing proportion of HTUs in our business again contributed positively, reflecting higher net revenue per unit, partially offset by unfavorable geographic mix. The positive mix impact of HTUs, overall volume growth and pricing are powerful drivers of our transformation and growth.

與第一季度一樣，日本和德國的 HTU 定價受到 2022 年消費稅年化增長的影響。就日本而言，是向 ILUMA 的過渡。隨著年化率的回落，這些因素在下半年的影響將會減弱。我們還繼續預計，到年底，與德國附加稅相關的法院裁決的可能結果將會更加清晰。 HTU 在我們業務中所佔比例的不斷增加再次做出了積極貢獻，反映出單位淨收入的增加，但部分被不利的地理組合所抵消。 HTU 的積極組合影響、總體銷量增長和定價是我們轉型和增長的強大驅動力。

Let's now turn to gross margins. While the year-on-year trajectory remained negative, we saw improvement versus the first quarter, driven by strong growth fundamentals. Indeed, we achieved sequential improvement of 1.2 percentage points despite increased inflationary pressures as top line growth accelerated and supply chain disruption and ILUMA-related factors started to dissipate in the quarter. In addition, cost phasing and the geographic mix of inventory movement, notably for HTU in Europe, increasingly normalized after an adversely affected Q1.

現在讓我們轉向毛利率。儘管同比軌跡仍然為負，但在強勁增長基本面的推動下，我們看到與第一季度相比有所改善。事實上，儘管通脹壓力加大，但隨著營收增長加速、供應鏈中斷和 ILUMA 相關因素在本季度開始消散，我們仍實現了 1.2 個百分點的環比改善。此外，在第一季度受到不利影響後，成本分階段和庫存流動的地理組合（尤其是歐洲的 HTU）日益正常化。

Our IQOS business contributed positively to our gross margin in Q2, and we expect this to continue, partly mitigating combustible. We expect further improvement in our year-on-year gross margin trajectory in H2 as headwinds continue to subside, ZYN's outstanding growth continues, and the underlying driver of our transformation accelerate. As expected, SG&A growth was much closer to net revenue growth in Q2 and at a more normalized growth rate with regard to our full year expectation. Indeed, with such a strong top line in Q2, SG&A costs were lower as a percentage of net revenues. While we continue to invest in IQOS and ZYN, our successful cost efficiency program continues to deliver, helping to finance growth investment and mitigate inflation, which remains a headwind.

我們的 IQOS 業務對第二季度的毛利率做出了積極貢獻，我們預計這種情況將持續下去，部分緩解可燃性。隨著不利因素繼續消退、ZYN 持續出色的增長以及我們轉型的潛在驅動力加速，我們預計下半年毛利率同比軌跡將進一步改善。正如預期的那樣，SG&A 增長更接近第二季度的淨收入增長，並且與我們的全年預期相比，增長率更加正常。事實上，由於第二季度的營收如此強勁，SG&A 成本占淨收入的百分比較低。在我們繼續投資 IQOS 和 ZYN 的同時，我們成功的成本效率計劃繼續發揮作用，幫助為增長投資提供資金並緩解通脹，而通脹仍然是一個阻力。

With $1.9 billion of gross savings realized to date, including $820 million from SG&A, we are on track to achieve our 2021-2023 $2 billion target ahead of plan. Turning now to the 2023 outlook. We are raising our currency-neutral top and bottom line growth forecasts. We aim to be a growth company, starting with volumes. In 2023, we expect to grow total volume for the third year in a row, even before factoring in the excellent progress of Swedish Match's portfolio. As part of this growth, we are reiterating our targeted HTU shipment range of 125 billion to 132 (sic) [130] billion, while we expect a cigarette volume decline of 1.5% to 2.5%.

迄今為止，我們已經實現了 19 億美元的總節省，其中包括 SG&A 的 8.2 億美元，我們有望提前實現 2021-2023 年 20 億美元的目標。現在轉向 2023 年展望。我們正在上調貨幣中性的頂線和底線增長預測。我們的目標是成為一家成長型公司，從銷量開始。到 2023 年，我們預計總銷量將連續第三年增長，甚至沒有考慮到瑞典火柴產品組合的出色進展。作為這一增長的一部分，我們重申 HTU 出貨量目標範圍為 1250 億至 132（原文如此）[130] 十億支，同時我們預計捲菸銷量將下降 1.5% 至 2.5%。

We are increasing our organic net revenue growth forecast to plus 7.5% to plus 8.5%, reflecting the continued momentum of IQOS, the resilience of our combustible business and the ongoing excellent growth of ZYN, which we expect to contribute positively in Q4. We expect strong organic operating income growth in the remainder of the year to support H2 margin expansion despite the headwinds previously mentioned and certain technical impact. These relate to the increased use of third-party manufacturing in a few markets, such as Indonesia and Ukraine, and the related growth of the below Tier 1 segment in Indonesia I already mentioned.

我們將有機淨收入增長預測提高至 7.5% 至 8.5%，反映了 IQOS 的持續增長勢頭、我們可燃業務的彈性以及 ZYN 的持續出色增長，我們預計這將在第四季度做出積極貢獻。儘管存在前面提到的不利因素和某些技術影響，但我們預計今年剩餘時間強勁的有機營業收入增長將支持下半年利潤率的擴張。這些與印度尼西亞和烏克蘭等一些市場越來越多地使用第三方製造有關，以及我已經提到的印度尼西亞以下一級細分市場的相關增長。

The full year estimated impact of this factor is around 40 basis points on our adjusted OI margin. And without this impact, we would expect to be broadly in the middle of our forecast organic margin range. On top of this organic evolution, we expect Swedish Match to add around 50 basis points of accretion. Our strong top line and OI outlook allows us to raise our forecast for currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth to plus 8% to plus 9.5%. This translates to a revised range of $6.13 to $6.22, including $0.33 from unfavorable currency at prevailing exchange rates, notably due to the Japanese yen and Russian ruble.

該因素對我們調整後的持倉利潤率的全年估計影響約為 40 個基點。如果沒有這種影響，我們預計有機利潤率將大致處於我們預測的中間範圍。除了這種有機演變之外，我們預計瑞典火柴將增加約 50 個基點的增長。我們強勁的營收和 OI 前景使我們能夠將貨幣中性調整後稀釋每股收益增長的預測提高至+8%至+9.5%。這意味著修正後的區間為 6.13 美元至 6.22 美元，其中包括按現行匯率計算的不利貨幣的 0.33 美元，主要是由於日元和俄羅斯盧布的影響。

This forecast continues to assume around $150 million for incremental investment in the U.S. and our Wellness and Healthcare business. It also assumes around $1.2 billion in net finance costs, which includes higher interest on variable debt, partly offset by better returns on cash deposits. As previously mentioned, our forecasts do not assume any contribution from a potential favorable ruling on the Germany tax surcharge.

這一預測繼續假設美國以及我們的健康和醫療保健業務的增量投資約為 1.5 億美元。它還假設約 12 億美元的淨財務成本，其中包括可變債務的較高利息，部分被現金存款回報的提高所抵消。如前所述，我們的預測並未假設德國附加稅的潛在有利裁決有任何貢獻。

Focusing on the second half in more detail, we expect strong performance on all key metrics as smoke-free products deliver an increasingly positive impact. In Q3, we forecast high single-digit organic top line growth with HTU shipments of 31 billion to 33 billion units and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.60 to $1.65, including $0.06 of unfavorable currency at prevailing exchange rate. Looking ahead to Q4, we expect notably strong reported and organic OI growth as certain inflationary impact are annualized, and we increasingly benefit from an optimized ILUMA supply chain and consumable.

更詳細地關注下半年，隨著無菸產品產生越來越積極的影響，我們預計所有關鍵指標都將表現強勁。在第三季度，我們預計 HTU 出貨量將實現高單位數有機增長，出貨量為 310 億至 330 億台，調整後攤薄每股收益為 1.60 至 1.65 美元，其中包括按現行匯率計算的 0.06 美元不利貨幣。展望第四季度，隨著某些通脹影響按年計算，我們預計報告和有機 OI 增長將顯著強勁，而且我們將越來越多地受益於優化的 ILUMA 供應鍊和消耗品。

As I mentioned, Swedish Match will also be included in our organic figures during the quarter. The exceptional growth of ZYN is clearly margin-accretive as visible in our adjusted H1 figures. Turning back to our results. Our total shipment volume increased by plus 3.3% for Q2 and plus 1.1% year-to-date. HTU shipment volume grew by plus 26.6% in Q2 to reach 31.4 billion units, notably driven by continued strong performance in Europe and Japan.

正如我所提到的，瑞典火柴也將包含在我們本季度的有機數據中。從我們調整後的上半年數據中可以看出，ZYN 的卓越增長顯然會增加利潤。回到我們的結果。第二季度我們的總出貨量增長了 3.3%，今年迄今增長了 1.1%。第二季度 HTU 出貨量增長 26.6%，達到 314 億顆，主要受到歐洲和日本持續強勁表現的推動。

In addition to fundamental strength, HTU shipment to Japan were boosted in Q2 by around 2 billion units as we increased sea freight with corresponding increase in inventory level. As I mentioned earlier, total PMI adjusted IMS volume of HTUs increased by plus 16% in Q2, continuing the excellent trend seen in Q1. H1 shipment volume grew by plus 18.5%. Notably, this does not include the excellent growth prospect of oral nicotine, for which shipment volume grew by plus 14% in Q2 and plus 12% in H1 on a pro forma basis.

除了基本面強勁外，由於我們增加了海運費並相應增加了庫存水平，第二季度 HTU 對日本的出貨量增加了約 20 億台。正如我之前提到的，經 PMI 調整後的 HTU IMS 總量在第二季度增長了 16%，延續了第一季度的良好趨勢。上半年出貨量增長 18.5%。值得注意的是，這並不包括口服尼古丁的良好增長前景，按預計，口服尼古丁的出貨量第二季度增長了 14%，上半年增長了 12%。

Cigarette volume declined by a modest 0.4% in Q2 with notable support from Turkey and Egypt and by 1.7% for H1, reflecting a solid category share performance in a resilient category despite stepped-up pricing. Our smoke-free transformation continues to progress rapidly. Due to the continued impressive performance of IQOS, heated tobacco units comprised 16.4% of our total shipment volume in H1 as compared to 14% in the first half of 2022 despite a resilient cigarette category. Including oral smoke-free product, this would be close to 18%.

在土耳其和埃及的大力支持下，第二季度捲菸銷量小幅下降 0.4%，上半年下降 1.7%，反映出儘管價格上漲，但彈性類別中的類別份額表現穩健。我們的無菸化轉型持續快速進展。由於 IQOS 持續令人印象深刻的表現，儘管捲菸類別具有彈性，但加熱煙草單位在上半年占我們總出貨量的 16.4%，而 2022 年上半年為 14%。包括口服無菸產品，這一數字將接近 18%。

Powered by IQOS and ZYN, smoke-free product made up 35% of our adjusted net revenue in H1 compared to 30.9% for the same period in 2022. IQOS devices accounted for approximately 4.5% of our H1 inhalable smoke-free net revenue. Focusing now on combustible. Our portfolio delivered strong organic net revenue growth of plus 7.4% in Q2 and plus 5.2% in H1. This reflect strong Q2 pricing with a notable contribution from Indonesia and the Philippines. While we don't expect the exceptionally strong Q2 pricing of 9.4%, which benefited from timing factors, to be fully replicated in H2, we now forecast a full year increase of plus 7% to plus 8%.

在 IQOS 和 ZYN 的支持下，無菸產品占我們上半年調整後淨收入的 35%，而 2022 年同期為 30.9%。IQOS 設備約占我們上半年吸入式無菸淨收入的 4.5%。現在重點關注可燃物。我們的投資組合在第二季度實現了強勁的有機淨收入增長 7.4%，在上半年實現了 5.2% 的強勁增長。這反映出第二季度的強勁定價，其中印度尼西亞和菲律賓的貢獻顯著。雖然我們預計下半年的定價不會完全複製第二季度 9.4% 的強勁定價（受益於時間因素），但我們現在預測全年增長率將達到 7% 至 8%。

Our cigarette category share grew by plus 0.7 points in Q2 on a year-over-year basis, including contribution from Duty Free, Egypt and Turkey and by plus 0.1 point in H1, resulting in only modest volume declines. Our leadership in combustible helps to maximize switching to smoke-free product, and we have fully achieved our ongoing objective of stable category share over the last 18 months despite the impact of IQOS cannibalization.

我們的捲煙品類份額在第二季度同比增長了 0.7 個百分點，其中包括免稅店、埃及和土耳其的貢獻，在上半年增長了 0.1 個百分點，導致銷量僅略有下降。我們在可燃產品領域的領先地位有助於最大限度地轉向無菸產品，儘管受到 IQOS 蠶食的影響，但我們在過去 18 個月中完全實現了穩定品類份額的持續目標。

The combination of a stable share in combustible and the continued growth of our leading smoke-free brands position us to deliver total market share growth over time. We captured plus 1.1 points of international cigarette and HTU share in Q2 and plus 0.5 points in H1 with notable contribution from Turkey and Japan. Impressively, despite increasing competition in many markets, our volume share of the growing heat-not-burn category remains stable at around 75%. This is supported by ongoing ILUMA market launches and increasing focus on our 2-tier HTU portfolio, providing adult smokers with an expanding range of innovative and high-quality alternatives to cigarettes.

可燃物的穩定份額和我們領先的無菸品牌的持續增長相結合，使我們能夠隨著時間的推移實現總市場份額的增長。我們在第二季度獲得了國際捲菸和 HTU 份額增加 1.1 個點，在上半年增加了 0.5 個點，其中土耳其和日本的貢獻顯著。令人印象深刻的是，儘管許多市場的競爭日益激烈，但我們在不斷增長的加熱不燃燒類別中的銷量份額仍穩定在 75% 左右。這得益於持續的 ILUMA 市場推出以及對我們 2 層 HTU 產品組合的日益關注，為成年吸煙者提供範圍不斷擴大的創新和高質量捲菸替代品。

PMI HTUs again strengthened their position as the second largest nicotine brand in markets where IQOS is present, with a sequential share gain in Q2 of plus 0.2 points to a record 9.2% share. We estimate there were 27.2 million IQOS users as of June 30. This reflects excellent growth of plus 1.4 million adult users in Q2, with notable progress in Japan and Europe in addition to a broad range of other geographies.

PMI HTU 再次鞏固了其作為 IQOS 市場第二大尼古丁品牌的地位，第二季度的份額環比增長了 0.2 個百分點，達到創紀錄的 9.2% 份額。我們估計，截至 6 月 30 日，IQOS 用戶數量為 2720 萬。這反映了第二季度成人用戶數量超過 140 萬的出色增長，其中除了廣泛的其他地區外，日本和歐洲也取得了顯著進展。

While fundamentals remain very strong, I remind you that Q3 user growth can often be below the average for the year due to the seasonal factors evident in prior years. I will now turn to IQOS in the Europe Region, where we are approaching a milestone of 12 million users. This reflects the further rollout of ILUMA, which is now available to around 70% of IQOS users in the region and the expansion of our 2-tier portfolio. As an illustration of its progress, TEREA is already close to 100% of our HTU in-market sales volume in the first launch market of Spain and Switzerland.

雖然基本面仍然非常強勁，但我提醒您，由於前幾年明顯的季節性因素，第三季度的用戶增長往往低於全年平均水平。我現在將談談歐洲地區的 IQOS，我們正在接近 1200 萬用戶的里程碑。這反映了 ILUMA 的進一步推出（目前該地區約 70% 的 IQOS 用戶可以使用該產品）以及我們兩層產品組合的擴展。作為其進展的例證，TEREA 在西班牙和瑞士的第一個推出市場中已經接近我們 HTU 市場銷量的 100%。

Our second quarter HTU share increased by plus 1.6 points year-over-year to 9% of total cigarette and HTU industry volume. While sequential share is, as usual, optically affected by the seasonality of the cigarette category, adjusted IMS volume continued to exhibit robust sequential growth and reached a record high on a 4-quarter moving average. This reflects strong year-on-year growth of plus 20% in Q2, outstripping the plus 11% growth in HTU shipments, which were affected by some residual effect from the inventory dynamics seen in Q1.

我們第二季度的 HTU 份額同比增長了 1.6 個百分點，佔捲菸和 HTU 行業總量的 9%。雖然環比份額一如既往地受到捲菸類別季節性的明顯影響，但調整後的 IMS 銷量繼續表現出強勁的環比增長，並在 4 季度移動平均值上達到歷史新高。這反映出第二季度同比增長超過 20%，超過了 HTU 出貨量增長的 11%，後者受到第一季度庫存動態的一些殘餘影響。

We expect robust growth in HTU shipments, adjusted IMS and overall region organic net revenue in the second half. We continue to be encouraged by the increasing number of European countries adopting multiyear excise tax plans with clear differentiation of smoke-free product. Over half of EU member states have now passed multiyear plans. Also in the EU, a number of member states are currently transposing the delegated directive withdrawing the heated tobacco product exemption from the flavor ban into national legislation. The ban is scheduled to come into effect on October 23, and we will be adjusting our HTU portfolio as required in line with this transposition. While short-term volatility is possible, we do not expect a significant change in the structural growth of the category.

我們預計下半年 HTU 出貨量、調整後的 IMS 和整體地區有機淨收入將強勁增長。我們繼續對越來越多的歐洲國家採用多年消費稅計劃並明確區分無菸產品感到鼓舞。超過一半的歐盟成員國現已通過多年計劃。同樣在歐盟，許多成員國目前正在將撤銷加熱煙草產品香料禁令豁免的授權指令轉化為國家立法。該禁令計劃於 10 月 23 日生效，我們將根據此次換位的要求調整我們的 HTU 投資組合。雖然短期波動是可能的，但我們預計該類別的結構性增長不會發生重大變化。

To give some further color on our continued progress in the region. This slide shows a selection of the latest key city offtake shares. The success of IQOS continues across a diverse range of geographies from Western, Southern, Central and Eastern Europe, including market with and without ILUMA. Despite the denominator effect of the combustible category I just mentioned, share results remain very strong. We are very pleased with trends in Rome, showing a sequential step-up to 28% share following the ILUMA launch. Robust progress in London and Munich also bodes well for these 2 key markets. While the Q2 2022 comparison share in Vilnius was helped by the popularity of certain bundle offers, the share of over 40% remains impressive and underlying offtake continues to grow.

為我們在該地區的持續進展增添更多色彩。這張幻燈片展示了最新主要城市承購股票的精選。 IQOS 在西歐、南歐、中歐和東歐的不同地區繼續取得成功，包括有或沒有 ILUMA 的市場。儘管我剛才提到了可燃類別的分母效應，但股價結果仍然非常強勁。我們對羅馬的趨勢非常滿意，在 ILUMA 推出後，市場份額連續上升至 28%。倫敦和慕尼黑的強勁進展也預示著這兩個主要市場的良好發展。雖然維爾紐斯 2022 年第二季度的比較份額得益於某些捆綁優惠的受歡迎，但超過 40% 的份額仍然令人印象深刻，並且潛在承購量繼續增長。

In Japan, IQOS ILUMA continues to drive impressive growth momentum. Smoke-free products made up over 75% of our Japan net revenue in H1, clearly showing the path for the broader company. Adjusted total tobacco share for our HTU brands increased by plus 3.4 points in Q2 to 26.3%, further strengthening TEREA and SENTIA's position as a clear #1 and #2, heat-not-burn brands despite intensified price competition for mid- and low-price offering.

在日本，IQOS ILUMA 繼續保持令人印象深刻的增長勢頭。無菸產品占我們上半年日本淨收入的 75% 以上，清楚地表明了更廣泛的公司的發展方向。我們的 HTU 品牌的調整後總煙草份額在第二季度增加了 3.4 個百分點，達到 26.3%，進一步鞏固了 TEREA 和 SENTIA 作為第一和第二加熱不燃燒品牌的地位，儘管中低價位產品的價格競爭加劇。

Importantly, adjusted IMS volume again grew sequentially, reaching a record high of 9.3 billion units on a 4-quarter moving average as IQOS outgrew the heat-not-burn category. In addition to this excellent consumer trend, our Q2 shipment to Japan also benefited from progressively switching back to sea freight during the quarter. In addition to strong IQOS gains in developed countries, we continue to see very promising growth in low and middle-income markets. This slide highlights a selection of Q2 key city offtake shares across markets in Eastern Europe, Africa, Asia and Latin America.

重要的是，調整後的 IMS 銷量再次環比增長，隨著 IQOS 的增長超過了加熱不燃燒類別，按 4 季度移動平均值計算，達到 93 億台的歷史新高。除了這種良好的消費趨勢外，我們第二季度對日本的發貨也受益於本季度逐步轉回海運。除了發達國家 IQOS 的強勁增長外，我們還繼續看到低收入和中等收入市場的增長前景非常光明。這張幻燈片重點介紹了東歐、非洲、亞洲和拉丁美洲市場第二季度主要城市的承購份額。

Notable ongoing successes include Egypt with Cairo offtake share surpassing 8.5% and Bulgaria with offtake share in Sofia exceeding 15% despite the usual impact of seasonality that I mentioned. We continue to see robust offtake volume growth across these important future markets. Now moving to Swedish Match, which is meaningfully accelerating our smoke-free growth trajectory. As covered earlier, the business delivered outstanding currency-neutral net revenue growth of plus 19% in Q2 and plus 17% in H1.

持續取得的顯著成功包括埃及開羅的承購份額超過 8.5%，以及保加利亞索非亞的承購份額超過 15%，儘管通常會受到我提到的季節性影響。我們繼續看到這些重要的未來市場的承購量強勁增長。現在轉向瑞典火柴，它正在有意義地加速我們的無菸增長軌跡。如前所述，該業務在第二季度實現了出色的（貨幣中性）淨收入增長 19%，在上半年實現了 17% 的增長。

This means that in the first half of the year, Swedish Match has added 70 basis points of currency-neutral growth to our pro forma top line and plus 60 basis points to our adjusted OI margin. In the U.S., ZYN delivered another exceptional quarter with volume growth of over 50%, reflecting positive momentum across the country. Elsewhere in smoke-free, recent trends of share gain in moist snuff as well as category mix headwinds in Scandinavia broadly continued. The cigar business performed well with Q2 organic net revenue growth of plus 16%. This reflects ongoing share gains despite being an early mover on category pricing.

這意味著，今年上半年，Swedish Match 在我們的預計營收中增加了 70 個基點的貨幣中性增長，並在調整後的 OI 利潤率中增加了 60 個基點。在美國，ZYN 又迎來了一個出色的季度，銷量增長超過 50%，反映出該國的積極勢頭。在無菸領域的其他地方，濕鼻煙市場份額近期的增長趨勢以及斯堪的納維亞半島的品類混合逆風大體仍在繼續。雪茄業務表現良好，第二季度有機淨收入增長超過 16%。這反映出儘管是品類定價的先行者，但其份額仍在持續增長。

I would like to, again, congratulate and thank all the Swedish Match employees for continuing to deliver terrific results as we thoughtfully integrate our activities, which is progressing very well. Looking at ZYN U.S. performance in more detail, exceptional year-over-year volume growth in can of plus 53% also reflects a plus 22% sequential increase versus Q1 2023. This accelerated growth reflects progressive increase in distribution and a broad nationwide step-up in store velocity as the category gains strong traction with adult nicotine user for its convenience and pleasurable experience.

我想再次祝賀並感謝瑞典火柴公司的所有員工，他們在我們深思熟慮地整合我們的活動的過程中繼續取得了出色的成果，進展順利。更詳細地觀察 ZYN 在美國的業績，罐裝銷量同比增長 53% 以上，也反映出與 2023 年第一季度相比環比增長 22%。這種加速增長反映了分銷的逐步增加以及全國范圍內商店速度的廣泛提升，因為該品類因其便利和愉悅的體驗而受到成年尼古丁使用者的強烈關注。

This includes California, which implemented a statewide flavor ban in December. While such elevated rates of growth may not continue indefinitely, the structural indicators remain very encouraging. Impressively, ZYN category volume share grew plus 2.2 points compared to prior year and plus 1 point sequentially despite continued discounting from less premium offerings. Retail value share also grew to 76.8%, highlighting its premium positioning and superior brand equity.

其中包括加利福尼亞州，該州於 12 月在全州範圍內實施了香料禁令。雖然這種高增長率可能不會無限期地持續下去，但結構性指標仍然非常令人鼓舞。令人印象深刻的是，儘管高端產品繼續打折，但 ZYN 品類的銷量份額與去年相比增長了 2.2 個百分點，環比增長了 1 個百分點。零售價值份額也增長至 76.8%，凸顯其高端定位和卓越的品牌資產。

Now let me provide an update on our innovation and expansion plan as we further accelerate our smoke-free transformation. First and foremost, the global rollout of IQOS ILUMA continues to be a top priority. We launched ILUMA in 6 markets in Q2 and with HTU manufacturing constraint now normalized, we aim to be present in around 50 markets by the end of the year. The most significant opportunity to drive accelerated growth is in the U.S. We are investing behind ZYN and readying our organizational and commercial capabilities for the launch of IQOS in Q2 next year.

現在，讓我介紹一下我們進一步加速無菸轉型的創新和擴張計劃的最新情況。首先，IQOS ILUMA 的全球推廣仍然是重中之重。我們在第二季度在 6 個市場推出了 ILUMA，隨著 HTU 製造限制現已正常化，我們的目標是到今年年底進入約 50 個市場。推動加速增長的最重要機會在美國。我們正在投資 ZYN，並為明年第二季度推出 IQOS 做好組織和商業能力準備。

As mentioned in today's release, we are also on track for IQOS ILUMA PMTA and supplemental MRTPA submission in Q4 2023. Our philosophy on the U.S. remains unchanged. We will seek to accelerate our top line with IQOS and ZYN, supported by disciplined investment and leveraging both our extensive experience in smoke-free product and Swedish Match's infrastructure and knowledge while continuing to deliver strong bottom line growth for PMI.

正如今天的新聞稿中提到的，我們也有望在 2023 年第四季度提交 IQOS ILUMA PMTA 和補充 MRTPA 提交。我們對美國的理念保持不變。我們將尋求通過 IQOS 和 ZYN 加速我們的營收增長，在嚴格的投資的支持下，利用我們在無菸產品方面的豐富經驗以及瑞典火柴的基礎設施和知識，同時繼續為 PMI 帶來強勁的利潤增長。

Our pilot city launches for BONDS in the Philippines and Colombia continue to progress well. The learning from this market will be integrated as we roll out more broadly starting next year. The international expansion of nicotine pouches remains a key medium-term opportunity, notably for ZYN as the world's leading brand. We are now preparing for the launch or relaunch of ZYN in several markets. In e-vapor, our refocused approach in select market is progressing with VEEV ONE, our newly designed pod-based system introduced in 4 markets and VEEV NOW, our disposable product in 6 markets.

我們在菲律賓和哥倫比亞推出的債券試點城市繼續進展順利。當我們從明年開始更廣泛地推出時，我們將從這個市場獲得的經驗教訓進行整合。尼古丁袋的國際擴張仍然是一個重要的中期機遇，特別是對於 ZYN 作為世界領先品牌而言。我們現在正在準備在多個市場推出或重新推出 ZYN。在電子煙領域，我們在特定市場的重新定位方法正在取得進展，包括 VEEV ONE（我們在 4 個市場推出的新設計的基於菸彈的系統）和 VEEV NOW（我們在 6 個市場推出的一次性產品）。

Now let me discuss our Wellness and Healthcare segment, starting with its first clinical trial result for our inhalable aspirin product. While it was observed that the experimental product had a rapid onset of effect, which is the key medical advantage sought, there was significant variability in inhaled dose among subjects. The study was therefore deemed unsuccessful. And as a result, product design improvements are required. Our plan was to file this product with the FDA later this year. However, additional time is now required, and the outcome is therefore less certain. In addition, the CDMO business has been facing slower-than-anticipated development, including cost-related challenges. Consequently, we recorded a noncash goodwill impairment from our annual assessment as detailed in today's release.

現在讓我討論我們的健康和醫療保健部門，從我們的吸入阿司匹林產品的第一個臨床試驗結果開始。雖然觀察到實驗產品起效迅速，這是所尋求的關鍵醫學優勢，但受試者之間的吸入劑量存在顯著差異。因此，該研究被認為是不成功的。因此，需要改進產品設計。我們的計劃是今年晚些時候向 FDA 提交該產品。然而，現在需要額外的時間，因此結果不太確定。此外，CDMO業務一直面臨著低於預期的發展，包括成本相關的挑戰。因此，我們從年度評估中記錄了非現金商譽減值，如今天發布的詳細信息。

While these elements will postpone the achievement of our 2025 aspiration to reach over $1 billion of net revenue from Wellness and Healthcare product, they will result in a corresponding decrease in the level of investment in 2024. Our ambition to build and monetize our product pipeline are unchanged. As in the early days of developing IQOS, certain headwinds are to be expected, and the 2021 acquisition in this segment have provided us with unique and enabling R&D capability.

雖然這些因素將推遲我們在 2025 年實現健康和醫療保健產品淨收入超過 10 億美元的願望，但它們將導致 2024 年投資水平相應下降。我們建立產品線並實現貨幣化的目標沒有改變。與 IQOS 開發初期一樣，預計會遇到一些阻力，2021 年對該領域的收購為我們提供了獨特且有利的研發能力。

We remain committed to developing our Wellness and Healthcare business and continue to see attractive mid- and long-term growth potential on many fronts, such as inhalable drugs, NRT and consumer wellness products, including non-recreational cannabinoid in line with applicable regulatory requirements. We also aim to accelerate Vectura's growth and will be exploring potential partnership to enhance its CDMO business. We plan to discuss all these topics, including our plan for IQOS in the U.S. and a full update on our Wellness and Healthcare business at our Investor Day on the 28th of September in Lausanne, Switzerland.

我們仍然致力於發展我們的健康和醫療保健業務，並繼續看到許多方面具有吸引力的中長期增長潛力，例如吸入藥物、NRT 和消費者健康產品，包括符合適用監管要求的非娛樂大麻素。我們還旨在加速 Vectura 的增長，並將探索潛在的合作夥伴關係以增強其 CDMO 業務。我們計劃在 9 月 28 日於瑞士洛桑舉行的投資者日討論所有這些主題，包括我們在美國的 IQOS 計劃以及我們健康和醫療保健業務的完整更新。

Moving now to sustainability. Addressing the product health impact of combustible product by switching adult smoker to smoke-free products such as IQOS and ZYN remains our most critical priority. This transformation is at the core of our strategy, driving accelerated growth and returns over time from a more sustainable business. In addition, we remain committed to delivering best-in-class progress in other key sustainability areas. With our extensive agricultural and manufacturing supply chain, human rights are very important responsibility for our company.

現在轉向可持續發展。通過將成年吸煙者轉為 IQOS 和 ZYN 等無菸產品來解決可燃產品對產品健康的影響仍然是我們最重要的優先事項。這種轉型是我們戰略的核心，隨著時間的推移，推動更可持續業務的加速增長和回報。此外，我們仍然致力於在其他關鍵可持續發展領域取得一流的進展。憑藉我們廣泛的農業和製造業供應鏈，人權是我們公司非常重要的責任。

We released our first dedicated report on the topic last month, detailing our strategy to promote, respect and protect human rights and the progress to date in implementing our human rights commitment. Our performance on human rights is included in the 19 KPIs of our Sustainability Index, which comprises 30% of executive long-term equity compensation weighted towards our product transformation.

我們上個月發布了關於該主題的第一份專門報告，詳細介紹了我們促進、尊重和保護人權的戰略以及迄今為止在履行我們的人權承諾方面取得的進展。我們在人權方面的表現納入了可持續發展指數的 19 個 KPI，其中 30% 的高管長期股權薪酬加權到我們的產品轉型。

Our goal is to conduct comprehensive human rights impact assessments in our 10 highest risk markets by the end of 2025. These help us better understand and address our impacts, and we are making excellent progress with 7 completed to date. Addressing climate change is another priority for us, and I'm pleased to share that PMI was included in the Forbes' first-ever Net Zero leaders list, ranking 7th overall for all U.S. public company higher than any other consumer product or service company.

我們的目標是到 2025 年底在 10 個風險最高的市場進行全面的人權影響評估。這有助於我們更好地了解和解決我們的影響，並且我們正在取得出色進展，迄今為止已完成 7 個市場。解決氣候變化是我們的另一個優先事項，我很高興與大家分享，PMI 被列入福布斯首個淨零領導者名單，在所有美國上市公司中總體排名第七，高於任何其他消費品或服務公司。

To conclude today's presentation, we delivered a very strong first half despite a number of headwinds, putting us on track for the third consecutive year of positive volume and organic net revenue growth of over plus 7%. The powerful trajectory of our smoke-free business give us confidence in a strong full year performance with excellent operating income growth. Outstanding momentum continues for IQOS and ZYN, the world-leading heat-not-burn and oral nicotine brands. And we have exciting plans to further grow oral nicotine pouches in the U.S. and internationally, along with the U.S. commercialization of IQOS next year.

最後，儘管面臨諸多不利因素，我們的上半年業績仍然非常強勁，使我們有望連續第三年實現正銷量和有機淨收入增長超過 7%。我們無菸業務的強勁發展軌跡讓我們對強勁的全年業績和出色的營業收入增長充滿信心。全球領先的加熱不燃燒和口服尼古丁品牌 IQOS 和 ZYN 繼續保持強勁勢頭。我們還有令人興奮的計劃，將在美國和國際上進一步發展口服尼古丁袋，以及明年 IQOS 在美國的商業化。

Importantly, we remain steadfast in our commitment to generously reward our shareholders, including through our progressive dividend policy. In short, our smoke-free transformation continues to deliver sustainable growth. We look forward to sharing more with you on the next phase of our transformation at our Investor Day on September 28. Thank you very much, and we are now delighted to answer your questions.

重要的是，我們仍然堅定地致力於慷慨地回報股東，包括通過我們的累進股息政策。簡而言之，我們的無菸轉型繼續帶來可持續增長。我們期待在 9 月 28 日的投資者日與您分享更多有關下一階段轉型的信息。非常感謝您，我們現在很高興回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Pamela Kaufman from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的帕梅拉·考夫曼。

I wanted to ask about your full year guidance. You exceeded your own Q2 guidance by at least $0.13 but did not flow through the EPS beat to the full year outlook, even when factoring the greater FX headwind. What's tempering the flow-through of Q2 upside? And how much does this reflect conservatism around the balance of the year versus a more cautious outlook on the second half or higher investments?

我想問一下您的全年指導。您超出了自己的第二季度指導至少 0.13 美元，但即使考慮到更大的外匯逆風，每股收益也沒有達到全年預期。是什麼抑制了第二季度的上漲空間？這在多大程度上反映了今年剩餘時間的保守態度，而不是對下半年或更高投資的更加謹慎的前景？

Thank you, Pam. When we look at the driver for beating our initial expectations for Q2, I think we can probably make 3 buckets. One is the outperformance of ZYN versus our expectation. And that's something that we are, of course, taking into account as we see a better trajectory for ZYN than initially anticipated. Remember that will only contribute to our organic growth on revenue in Q4. But that is, of course, helping the adjusted EPS growth, excluding ForEx.

謝謝你，帕姆。當我們看到驅動程序超出了我們對第二季度的最初預期時，我認為我們可能可以實現 3 個目標。一是 ZYN 的表現超出我們的預期。當然，我們正在考慮這一點，因為我們看到 ZYN 的發展軌跡比最初預期的更好。請記住，這只會有助於我們第四季度收入的有機增長。但這當然有助於調整後每股收益的增長（不包括外匯）。

We also see some costs that have been moved to H2, and that is, if you want, [costs that are] we going to see in H2. So it's not a net addition for the year. And then there was, as we said, some better news on financial cost, cost on our debt. There was also some element on tax. And of course, this one is more uncertain and more difficult to predict for the second part of the year.

我們還看到一些成本已轉移到 H2，也就是說，如果您願意，我們將在 H2 中看到[成本]。所以這不是今年的淨增加。然後，正如我們所說，有一些關於財務成本、債務成本的好消息。還有一些關於稅收的因素。當然，今年下半年的情況更加不確定，也更難以預測。

But I think, as always, we are building scenario for the full year. We've been including in a clear way what we see a real change in the trajectory and on which we have visibility for the second half on things where we have postponement of things with good news, but of course, we still a lot of uncertainty on H2.

但我認為，一如既往，我們正在為全年制定方案。我們已經以明確的方式包括了我們所看到的軌蹟的真正變化，並且我們對下半年的事情有可見性，我們推遲了好消息，但當然，我們對下半年仍然有很多不確定性。

Of course, we have to be a bit more cautious when we take them in the scenarios.

當然，當我們把它們放在場景中時，我們必須更加謹慎。

Okay. And then just on operating margins. You pointed to operating margins closer to the lower end of your initial guidance range of down 50 to 150 basis points for the year. Can you discuss the puts and takes impacting your margin performance in the second half?

好的。然後只是營業利潤率。您指出，今年的營業利潤率接近初始指導範圍的下限，即下降 50 至 150 個基點。您能否討論一下影響下半年利潤表現的看跌期權和看跌期權？

So when you look at the margin, really, things are happening as expected, I would say. So after Q1, which was not coming as a surprise to us, we said from now on, we're going to see an improvement of the margin trajectory. We knew that inflation would still be there for the rest of the year, although in the second part of the year, we're going to be facing comparison where inflation was starting to kick in. So that's going to have some impact.

因此，當你查看利潤率時，我會說，事情實際上正在按預期發生。因此，在第一季度之後（這對我們來說並不令人意外），我們表示從現在開始，我們將看到利潤率軌蹟的改善。我們知道通貨膨脹在今年剩餘時間裡仍然存在，儘管在今年下半年，我們將面臨通貨膨脹開始爆發的比較。所以這將會產生一些影響。

But we knew that a number of other headwinds start to abate. And here, I'm talking about the disruption on the supply chain and among other things, things connected with air freight. The cost attached to the launch of ILUMA, the fact that not everything was optimal. So we started to see improvement in Q2 as expected, and we're going to continue to see improvement in the rest of the year. And then what we see playing in Q2 that we expect to see playing in the rest of the year are the fundamental positive drivers that we have for our margin.

但我們知道其他一些不利因素開始減弱。在這裡，我談論的是供應鏈的中斷以及與空運有關的事情。 ILUMA 的推出所附帶的成本，並非一切都是最佳的。因此，我們開始看到第二季度的情況如預期有所改善，並且我們將在今年剩餘時間內繼續看到這種情況的改善。然後，我們在第二季度看到的情況以及我們預計在今年剩餘時間裡看到的情況是我們利潤率的基本積極驅動因素。

First of all, the fact that IQOS growth is having a positive impact on our margin. We said it since the beginning, we expect a positive contribution on margin evolution for the year from the heat-not-burn business. Remember, we have a higher gross margin rate on our consumable for IQOS. So as we are growing IQOS, that is having a positive impact. There is now when it comes to our smoke-free business, another driver that is positive for our margin, which is ZYN and ZYN in the U.S., which is also accretive to the margin.

首先，IQOS 的增長對我們的利潤率產生了積極影響。我們從一開始就說過，我們預計加熱不燃燒業務將對今年的利潤率演變做出積極貢獻。請記住，我們的 IQOS 耗材毛利率較高。因此，隨著我們不斷發展 IQOS，這正在產生積極的影響。現在，談到我們的無菸業務，另一個對我們的利潤產生積極影響的驅動因素是 ZYN 和美國的 ZYN，這也增加了利潤。

You don't see it in the organic reporting so far, but it's going to start to kick in, in Q4, and we expect to have another nice positive. And then the third element that I think you see, of course, nicely in Q2 is our pricing power. We see today very clearly on combustible. We have some headwinds that are temporary coming from Germany and Japan on heat-not-burn, but we retain pricing power, which is positive for the long term. And these are good elements. Of course, in front of that, we will keep investing and making sure that we are maximizing the growth potential. But that's really what is behind the margin development for the year.

到目前為止，您在有機報告中還沒有看到這一點，但它將在第四季度開始發揮作用，我們預計會出現另一個積極的積極因素。當然，我認為您在第二季度看到的第三個要素是我們的定價能力。今天我們對可燃物看得很清楚。我們在加熱不燃燒方面遇到了來自德國和日本的一些暫時阻力，但我們保留了定價權，這從長遠來看是積極的。這些都是很好的元素。當然，在此之前，我們將繼續投資並確保最大限度地發揮增長潛力。但這才是今年利潤率增長的真正原因。

Now on top of it, and I think we've been [flying] that during this quarter. We have the development of businesses that are coming with lower margin because we are buying to third parties and that is a different margin dynamic. And also this business, which we called [below] VEEV ONE, which is, in fact, with reduced excise duty in Indonesia that is coming with lower margin. It's more a technical effect, I would say. And as mentioned, without that, we would have been in fact, in the middle of the bracket that we gave, the [50 to 150 negative].

現在最重要的是，我認為我們在本季度一直在[飛行]。我們開發的業務利潤率較低，因為我們向第三方採購，這是一種不同的利潤率動態。還有這項業務，我們將其稱為[以下] VEEV ONE，事實上，印度尼西亞的消費稅降低了，利潤率也隨之降低。我想說，這更多的是技術效果。正如前面提到的，如果沒有這個，我們實際上就會處於我們給出的括號的中間，[50 到 150 負]。

And again, this is not reflecting the positive contribution for ZYN. So I would say as a summary, the things are happening as expected, and we start to see the fact that we have, on the long term, some fundamental positive driver for our margin that I summarized.

再說一次，這並沒有反映出 ZYN 的積極貢獻。因此，我想說，作為總結，事情正在按預期發生，我們開始看到這樣一個事實，即從長遠來看，我們的利潤率有一些基本的積極驅動因素，正如我總結的那樣。

We will take our next question from Vivien Azer with TD Cowen.

我們將回答 Vivien Azer 和 TD Cowen 提出的下一個問題。

So I wanted to follow up on the commentary on ZYN, certainly consistent with the very robust trends that we're seeing in the Nielsen scanner data, accelerating growth, strong market share gains. You've spoken in the past about the opportunity to offer some incremental investment to that business unit to expand the sales force, improve distribution and drive velocity. Can you just talk to us about where you are in that investment time horizon for ZYN, please?

因此，我想跟進 ZYN 的評論，這當然與我們在尼爾森掃描儀數據中看到的非常強勁的趨勢一致，即加速增長、強勁的市場份額增長。您過去曾談到有機會向該業務部門提供一些增量投資，以擴大銷售隊伍、改善分銷和提高速度。您能跟我們談談您對 ZYN 的投資時間範圍嗎？

Sure, Vivien. Yes, ZYN is of course -- I mean, we knew that the brand was great. I think we are seeing something that is above our initial expectation to be very clear for the time being at the time of the acquisition of Swedish Match. There is clearly a growing awareness of this category. We see a lot of poly-usage. So you have a percentage that is fully converted but a lot of poly-usage. We talk about people discovering that they can enjoy their nicotine in a moment where they cannot enjoy whether they're combustible cigarettes or other inhalable products that is certainly playing. I think there is a very positive lifestyle element around the development in the U.S. that is gathering momentum.

當然，薇薇安。是的，ZYN 當然是——我的意思是，我們知道這個品牌很棒。我認為，在收購瑞典火柴時，我們看到的一些事情超出了我們最初的預期，目前情況非常清楚。顯然，人們對這一類別的認識不斷增強。我們看到很多多用途。所以你有一個完全轉換的百分比，但有很多多用途。我們談論人們發現他們可以在無法享受尼古丁的時刻享受尼古丁，無論他們是可燃香煙還是其他正在玩的可吸入產品。我認為美國的發展有一種非常積極的生活方式元素正在積聚動力。

So that is, I think, explaining the success of ZYN that is the icon of the category and of course, taking today the lion's share of the growth of this nicotine pouch progression in the U.S. Now that is very good news, of course, because that means that we have a very dynamic business in the U.S. To be very clear, it's not marginal at the group level. So you will see, and you already see in the performance impact of this ZYN U.S performance. So that's great to have another driver for our smoke-free performance and globally for the financial performance of the company. That is setting the [scene] very well for IQOS because on top of what is successful, we're going to be able to build a very efficient commercial engine. You said it increased sales force. We're in the making of that. It's happening progressively. It's, of course, going to help both ZYN and IQOS. But that also bodes very well for our capacity to develop IQOS successfully in the future in the U.S.

我認為，這就是 ZYN 的成功的原因，ZYN 是該類別的標誌，當然，今天它在美國尼古丁袋裝尼古丁袋發展中佔據了最大的份額。當然，這是一個非常好的消息，因為這意味著我們在美國擁有非常活躍的業務。需要非常明確的是，它在集團層面並不邊緣。所以您將會看到，並且您已經看到了 ZYN 美國性能的性能影響。因此，能夠為我們的無菸業績和全球公司的財務業績提供另一個驅動力，真是太好了。這為 IQOS 奠定了良好的基礎，因為除了成功之外，我們還將能夠構建一個非常高效的商業引擎。你說它增加了銷售隊伍。我們正在努力做到這一點。它正在逐步發生。當然，這對 ZYN 和 IQOS 都有幫助。但這也預示著我們未來有能力在美國成功開發 IQOS。

We're going to have a convergence of strength between ZYN and IQOS. So to be very clear, we haven't been suddenly increasing at that stage by several hundred people in the sales force. It's happening gradually as we build the capacity for IQOS starting Q2 next year. There is other investment that we are doing in our digital capacity and the digital commercial engine, again, just the beginning. So I don't think it is really today behind the growth that we see behind ZYN. But these are additional strength and capacity. And again, I think we are very excited about the amazing team that IQOS and ZYN can be in the future in the U.S.

我們將在 ZYN 和 IQOS 之間匯聚力量。因此，需要非常明確的是，我們在那個階段並沒有突然增加數百名銷售人員。隨著我們從明年第二季度開始建立 IQOS 的產能，這一情況正在逐步發生。我們還在數字能力和數字商業引擎方面進行了其他投資，這只是一個開始。因此，我認為 ZYN 背後的增長並不是今天真正的原因。但這些都是額外的力量和能力。再說一次，我認為我們對 IQOS 和 ZYN 未來在美國的出色團隊感到非常興奮。

That's really helpful. And then just moving to the Wellness and Healthcare segment for my second question, please. Understanding some of the challenges around the clinical trial, I was wondering if you could just comment on your aspiration to delever the balance sheet post the Swedish Match transaction versus the potential need for incremental M&A as you think about an ultimate $1 billion revenue target, understanding that you pushed out the date for that?

這真的很有幫助。然後請轉到健康和醫療保健部分來回答我的第二個問題。了解臨床試驗的一些挑戰後，我想知道您是否可以評論一下您在瑞典火柴交易後去槓桿化資產負債表的願望與增量併購的潛在需求，因為您在考慮最終的 10 億美元收入目標時，了解您推遲了該日期？

Yes. And I want to be very clear. I mean, the focus is on deleveraging the balance sheet. We are focusing on extracting the great potential that we have in our smoke-free business. I mentioned IQOS and ZYN together. We certainly want to grow VEEV as well. But I think there is so much potential on IQOS and ZYN that it's, of course, the key focus today. And we are spending our time, energy on maximizing the potential there, and that's going to generate deleveraging. So the time today is not for us to think about, I would say, structural move on M&A in other spaces. We are very much focused on optimizing this great potential that we have in our smoke-free business today.

是的。我想說得很清楚。我的意思是，重點是去槓桿化資產負債表。我們致力於挖掘無菸業務的巨大潛力。我一起提到了IQOS和ZYN。我們當然也希望發展 VEEV。但我認為 IQOS 和 ZYN 潛力巨大，當然是今天的重點。我們正在花費時間和精力來最大限度地發揮那裡的潛力，這將產生去槓桿化。因此，我想說，今天不是我們考慮其他領域併購的結構性舉措的時候。我們非常注重優化當今無菸業務的巨大潛力。

We will take our next question from Gaurav Jain with Barclays.

我們將回答巴克萊銀行高拉夫·傑恩 (Gaurav Jain) 提出的下一個問題。

A question on ZYN in the U.S. So the volumes are coming in much ahead of where, I think, consensus is where we were. We also know that U.S. cigarette volumes have persisted at very weak rates despite easy comps. So what do you think is the cannibalization rate of ZYN on U.S. cigarettes today? And as you project out IQOS growth over the next 7 years, is ZYN's cannibalization is higher than what is thought of? Then does it mean that the cigarette universe is smaller, which implies that the IQOS opportunity is smaller?

關於美國 ZYN 的問題 因此，我認為，成交量遠遠領先於我們達成的共識。我們還知道，儘管比較容易，但美國捲菸銷量一直保持在非常低的水平。那麼您認為今天 ZYN 在美國捲菸上的蠶食率是多少呢？當您預測 IQOS 在未來 7 年的增長時，ZYN 的蠶食是否比想像的要高？那麼是否意味著捲菸宇宙更小，意味著IQOS的機會更小呢？

It's, Gaurav, an excellent question. I believe, first of all, I'm not going to give a precise answer, as you can imagine. I believe that there is probably some cannibalization for the reason I mentioned. We see behaviors developing of people that probably are or were combustible user, and they discover that they can enjoy the nicotine in a different manner with certainly a positive perception on when they can do it and the impact on them. Now I'm not able to tell you whether this is something very material. So I don't have any data at that stage.

高拉夫，這是一個很好的問題。我相信，首先，我不會給出一個精確的答案，正如你可以想像的那樣。我相信，由於我提到的原因，可能存在一些蠶食。我們看到可能是或曾經是可燃性使用者的人的行為發展，他們發現他們可以以不同的方式享受尼古丁，並且對他們何時可以這樣做以及對他們的影響肯定有積極的看法。現在我無法告訴你這是否是非常物質的東西。所以我在那個階段沒有任何數據。

And I'm sure we'll try to elaborate on the ZYN driver on the 28th of September. But at that stage, I'm not able to share with you any hard data on how it's materializing. Frankly, I don't think that this is going to be really relevant for IQOS because maybe in a kind of super marginal manner. But here we talk about with IQOS, smokers who wants to enjoy when they are still enjoying today combustible cigarette, a different product that is mimicking very closely their pleasure with clearly personal benefit on their health, but also on their lifestyle.

我確信我們會在 9 月 28 日嘗試詳細說明 ZYN 驅動程序。但在那個階段，我無法與你們分享任何關於它如何實現的硬數據。坦率地說，我不認為這與 IQOS 真正相關，因為可能是以一種超邊際的方式。但在這裡我們談論的是 IQOS，吸煙者在享受今天的可燃香煙時想要享受，這是一種不同的產品，非常接近他們的樂趣，對他們的健康和生活方式都有明顯的個人好處。

So I don't see the ZYN moment as something that is going to compete with IQOS in a meaningful manner. So I think that, that's not something that we see as a risk to undermine IQOS potential in the future.

因此，我不認為 ZYN 時刻能夠與 IQOS 進行有意義的競爭。所以我認為，我們認為這不會破壞 IQOS 未來的潛力。

Sure. And the second question I have is on this EU heated tobacco flavor ban and you mentioned that there could be some volatility. Now the experience in California has been pretty bad (inaudible) menthol cigarette ban and that only 70% of the menthol smokers seem to have been retained in the cigarette market. So like what is the precedence -- is there any precedence of a flavored heated tobacco ban anywhere, which helps you form the view that the impact will be quite minimal?

當然。我的第二個問題是關於歐盟的煙草香料禁令，您提到可能會出現一些波動。現在，加州薄荷醇捲菸禁令的經歷相當糟糕（聽不清），只有 70% 的薄荷醇吸煙者似乎還留在捲菸市場上。那麼，就像優先順序是什麼一樣——任何地方是否有調味加熱煙草禁令的優先順序，這有助於您形成影響非常小的觀點？

Yes, there is, Gaurav. So I will take 2 examples, 1 in Europe when there was the menthol -- the flavor ban in May 2020, where it had minimal impact on the combustible business, very, very small. So that's one illustration. And the other one is actually -- because here we talk about growing product. The other one here is the ban on flavor in California that impacted ZYN at the end of 2022. And there was a few weeks with a blip on the volume. And then as the momentum came back on non-flavored product, actually with even more intensity and (inaudible), and you don't see today any impact of this ban. So I think you have 2 element -- experiences that show that this is having minimum impact. And again, we're comparing in California with growing category, which maybe is more appropriate. But referring to combustible in Europe in May 2020, the impact was de minimis.

是的，有，高拉夫。所以我舉兩個例子，其中一個是在歐洲，當時有薄荷醇——2020 年 5 月的香料禁令，它對可燃物行業的影響很小，非常非常小。這就是一個例子。另一個實際上是——因為我們在這裡談論的是不斷增長的產品。另一個問題是 2022 年底加州的風味禁令對 ZYN 產生了影響。有幾週的時間銷量出現了波動。然後，隨著無味產品的勢頭恢復，實際上更加強烈並且（聽不清），今天你看不到這項禁令的任何影響。所以我認為你有兩個要素——經驗表明這產生的影響最小。再次，我們將加利福尼亞州與不斷增長的類別進行比較，這可能更合適。但就 2020 年 5 月歐洲的可燃性而言，影響微乎其微。

We will take our next question from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

我們將回答高盛邦妮·赫爾佐格的下一個問題。

Circle back to your guidance with just maybe a quick follow-on question. Your full year guidance implies, I guess, more riding on Q4. So just hoping you could help us understand maybe your level of conviction and/or visibility that your business really will strengthen so much later this year. And then I know its early, and I don't expect you to guide next year, but is there anything we should think about that you're investing in this year that really could position you for even greater growth next year and beyond.

回到你的指導，也許只是一個快速的後續問題。我想，您的全年指導意味著更多地依賴於第四季度。因此，希望您能幫助我們了解您的信念和/或知名度，即您的業務在今年晚些時候確實會得到如此大的增強。然後我知道現在還為時過早，我不指望你明年會提供指導，但是我們應該考慮你今年的投資是否真的可以讓你在明年及以後實現更大的增長。

Yes. So -- but trying to be back on H2, I think you see it already in Q2. I mean the momentum behind IQOS is there. We see it 1.4 -- we estimate 1.4 million user growth in Q2. That's an excellent number. We see in-market sales going up. We know that there is seasonality, but it doesn't mean that the consumer offtake is going to decrease. There is more launch of ILUMA and some of them that happened in the end of H1 that is going to contribute as well in the second part of the year. So we see very robust momentum there. We see the work that we've been doing, and as we said, the highest intensity of price increase has happened in Q2.

是的。所以，但試圖回到下半年，我認為你已經在第二季度看到了這一點。我的意思是 IQOS 背後的動力就在那裡。我們預計該數字為 1.4——我們預計第二季度用戶數量將增長 140 萬。這是一個非常好的數字。我們看到市場銷量在上升。我們知道存在季節性，但這並不意味著消費者購買量會減少。 ILUMA 有更多的發布，其中一些是在上半年末發生的，這也將在今年下半年做出貢獻。所以我們看到那裡的勢頭非常強勁。我們看到了我們一直在做的工作，正如我們所說，價格上漲的最高強度發生在第二季度。

It's going to be lower in H2, and we've been defending our market share well in a market that is resilient, and we may discuss why CC is so resilient, but the fact is that combustible is proving to be resilient in many geographies. And then there is a ZYN moment, clearly, the ZYN momentum, which (inaudible) keep growing at 50%, of course, but clearly, we expect momentum to continue super nicely on ZYN and starting Q4, that will also contribute to the organic growth, but in any case, it's going to fully contribute to adjusted EPS growth, excluding ForEx. So all that give us the confidence that we are set for a very, very good and very strong H2 in terms of performance. Now when we look towards 2024, we believe that the growth drivers are going to stay the same.

下半年會更低，我們一直在一個有彈性的市場中很好地捍衛了我們的市場份額，我們可能會討論為什麼 CC 如此有彈性，但事實是，可燃物在許多地區被證明是有彈性的。然後是 ZYN 時刻，顯然，ZYN 勢頭（聽不清）繼續以 50% 的速度增長，當然，但顯然，我們預計 ZYN 的勢頭將繼續保持良好狀態，並從第四季度開始，這也將有助於有機增長，但無論如何，它將完全有助於調整後的每股收益增長（不包括外匯）。因此，所有這些都讓我們充滿信心，我們將打造一款在性能方面非常、非常好、非常強大的 H2。現在，當我們展望 2024 年時，我們相信增長動力將保持不變。

So IQOS with, of course, the launch in Q2 in the U.S., but let's be clear, it's going to be the beginning. So it's not going to immediately have a huge impact. It's going to be a ramp-up as we explained. But there will be a number of country where ILUMA will be fully delivering. Look at Japan. That's quite interesting what happened in Japan. In fact, we've seen a kind of another acceleration on market share and volume 1 year after the launch of ILUMA. So it's not as if the whole positive impact was happening in the first weeks, I would say. It takes some time to create the awareness, the understanding and the positive appreciation. And then we're going to have ZYN and nicotine pouches in, first of all, starting in the U.S., but a number of exciting launch outside the U.S. as well. So that is boding well for 2024. But of course, it's premature to talk about '24, and we'll give guidance in due course.

當然，IQOS 將於第二季度在美國推出，但我們要明確的是，這只是一個開始。所以它不會立即產生巨大的影響。正如我們所解釋的，這將是一個加速過程。但 ILUMA 將在許多國家提供全面服務。看看日本。日本發生的事情很有趣。事實上，在 ILUMA 推出一年後，我們看到市場份額和銷量再次加速增長。所以我想說，整個積極影響並不是在最初幾週就發生的。建立意識、理解和積極的欣賞需要一些時間。然後我們將首先在美國推出 ZYN 和尼古丁袋裝產品，但也會在美國以外推出一些令人興奮的產品。因此，這對 2024 年來說是個好兆頭。但當然，現在談論“24”還為時過早，我們將在適當的時候提供指導。

Okay. That all makes sense and helpful. And then just for my second question, I was hoping for some more color on Japan. It looks like your shipment volume was really strong in the quarter and then your market share has increased nicely. So could you talk through key drivers of this? And then I believe BAT is cutting their prices on GLO HYPER starting in August. So could you talk through the current competitive environment? And then maybe how you expect it might change in light of these actions as well as how you may need to respond, if at all?

好的。這一切都有意義並且有幫助。對於我的第二個問題，我希望能對日本有更多的了解。看起來你們這個季度的出貨量確實很強勁，然後你們的市場份額也有了很大的增長。那麼您能談談這方面的關鍵驅動因素嗎？然後我相信 BAT 將從 8 月份開始降低 GLO HYPER 的價格。那麼您能談談目前的競爭環境嗎？然後，也許您期望它會根據這些行動而發生怎樣的變化，以及您可能需要如何應對（如果有的話）？

Sure, Bonnie. So Japan, of course, is a matter of great satisfaction. I was alluding to (inaudible) the fact that one year after the launch of ILUMA, we see a further acceleration of our market share. We are now above 26%. And as I said, that shows that the brand keeps doing inroads, converting more people, making a big difference versus competition and we are -- actually, we've seen our capture share of the growth of the category that continue to grow increasing. We have a 2-tier strategy between TEREA and SENTIA that is proving to be very efficient. So we have the premium range TEREA with a lot of innovation, great flavor experience. And then we have SENTIA, which is of course, at a lower level in terms of positioning.

當然，邦妮。所以日本當然是一件讓人非常滿意的事情。我指的是（聽不清）ILUMA 推出一年後，我們看到我們的市場份額進一步加速。我們現在已經超過26%了。正如我所說，這表明該品牌不斷取得進展，吸引了更多的人，與競爭相比產生了巨大的變化，事實上，我們已經看到我們在該類別的增長中所佔的份額不斷增加。我們在 TEREA 和 SENTIA 之間制定了 2 層策略，事實證明該策略非常有效。因此，我們擁有優質的 TEREA 系列，具有大量創新和出色的風味體驗。然後我們還有SENTIA，當然從定位上來說它處於較低的水平。

But with these 2, I would say, range, we managed to really reach the broadest possible number of ILUMA user, and that's clearly showing some great success. We are back in Japan to sea freight progressively. So that was expected in -- last year, the shipments were lower than the consumer offtake. And this year, that is, of course, not -- we're going back to the normal situation. That was absolutely planned. And we see indeed competition while trying to fight. They see the category that keeps having a lot of traction and gaining share. They are fighting to keep growing when ILUMA is clearly doing well. And so far, they believe that their way forward is to come with cheaper consumable. That's, of course, their decision. I won't comment on that. It's clear that despite that, we managed to grow the share. But it's good to see that there is a clear growing commitment from the whole industry behind the category in Japan.

但我想說的是，通過這兩個範圍，我們真正達到了盡可能廣泛的 ILUMA 用戶數量，這顯然表明了一些巨大的成功。我們逐步回到日本進行海運。因此，去年的出貨量低於消費者的預期。今年，當然不是——我們將回到正常情況。這絕對是計劃好的。我們在努力戰鬥的同時確實看到了競爭。他們認為該類別一直具有很大的吸引力並不斷增加份額。當 ILUMA 明顯表現良好時，他們正在努力保持增長。到目前為止，他們相信他們的前進之路是提供更便宜的消耗品。當然，這是他們的決定。我不會對此發表評論。顯然，儘管如此，我們還是設法增加了份額。但很高興看到日本整個行業對這一類別的承諾不斷增強。

We will take our next question from Matt Smith with Stifel.

我們將接受 Stifel 的 Matt Smith 提出的下一個問題。

I want to ask about the pacing of the rollout of ILUMA to 50 markets from the 23 markets where it's available today. Do you expect that to be fairly evenly spread across the second half? And could you talk about the rollout or the expansion, the impact on your operating margin in the second half as well as your gross margin?

我想詢問 ILUMA 從目前已上市的 23 個市場向 50 個市場的推出進度。您預計下半年這種情況會相當均勻地分佈嗎？您能否談談推出或擴張，對下半年營業利潤率以及毛利率的影響？

Yes, Matt. So there will be a progressive difficult for me. I mean, there will be events in Q3 and Q4 of launch of ILUMA in [a number] of countries (inaudible) to do that depending on the size of each market, but it's going to be relatively well spread. Let's be clear, we have already 2/3 of the IQOS volume that are exposed or benefit from ILUMA presence.

是的，馬特。所以對我來說會有一個漸進的困難。我的意思是，根據每個市場的規模，將在第三季度和第四季度在[許多]國家（聽不清）推出 ILUMA 的活動，但它的傳播會相對較好。讓我們明確一點，我們已經有 2/3 的 IQOS 卷暴露或受益於 ILUMA 的存在。

So it's not marginal, but a big part of it has already been done. And as we said, at the beginning of ILUMA, we were not fully optimized on the product, on the productivity. It doesn't mean that everything will be done at the end of the year, but we expect to certainly see an acceleration of productivity, reduction in the weight in the second part of the year, and that will have a positive impact on margin evolution, absolutely in line with what I explained a number of headwinds that are receding in line with expectation. But that's really what you can expect for ILUMA in the second part of the year.

所以這不是邊際，但其中很大一部分已經完成了。正如我們所說，在 ILUMA 成立之初，我們並未對產品和生產力進行全面優化。這並不意味著一切都會在年底完成，但我們預計下半年肯定會看到生產力的加速、重量的減輕，這將對利潤率的演變產生積極的影響，完全符合我所解釋的一些逆風正在按照預期消退。但這確實是 ILUMA 在今年下半年的預期。

And if I could ask just a follow-up question on the combustible performance. It's been stronger in terms of both volume and organic revenue contribution. And you've made a couple of comments about the demand environment holding up better than your expectation relative to the elevated pricing. Can you talk about the factors that are allowing the consumers to hold up elasticity better than your expectations? Do you expect that to continue now that you're going to lap some pricing action?

我是否可以問一個有關可燃性能的後續問題。它在數量和有機收入貢獻方面都更加強勁。您對需求環境相對於價格上漲的情況比您的預期要好發表了一些評論。您能否談談哪些因素讓消費者的彈性比您的預期更好？既然您要採取一些定價行動，您預計這種情況會繼續下去嗎？

Look, so far, I think that we've seen that pricing up doesn't mean that the consumer is going away. I'm not able to tell you how it's going to further evolve in the future. I think what we see globally on the combustible market is, first of all, a few markets where because of the demographic, we see the consumption of combustible going up. I could certainly mention India, probably Egypt, Turkey, probably Vietnam, even if it's not a big market for us, where we see combustible business going up. The resilience is also coming from a number of markets where there is a ban on smoke-free products. So of course, that is, to some extent, protecting the combustible business. As you know, that's clearly not something that we like. We think that it's a big mistake. But that is probably providing some resilience to the category overall. So that would be my analysis on combustible.

到目前為止，我認為我們已經看到價格上漲並不意味著消費者會消失。我無法告訴你未來它將如何進一步發展。我認為我們在全球可燃物市場上看到的是，首先，由於人口結構的原因，我們看到一些市場的可燃物消耗量正在上升。我當然可以提到印度，可能是埃及、土耳其，可能是越南，即使這對我們來說不是一個大市場，我們看到那裡的可燃性業務正在增長。這種彈性還來自一些禁止無菸產品的市場。所以當然，也就是在一定程度上保護了可燃業務。如您所知，這顯然不是我們喜歡的事情。我們認為這是一個很大的錯誤。但這可能為整個類別提供了一定的彈性。這就是我對可燃物的分析。

We will take our next question from Owen Bennett with Jefferies.

我們將回答歐文·貝內特和杰弗里斯提出的下一個問題。

So related to heated competitive dynamics. So all 3 of your major tobacco peers now appear to be in a better spot at least versus the past with regard to product offerings at least and money they invest into this. I was just wondering if you could comment on IQOS trends in some of the more competitive heated markets where all 3 of your major peers now have a presence. So I would like to (inaudible), for example. So how is IQOS shareholding or if ILUMA having less traction in these markets in August? Are you seeing [trial of other] brands and consumers coming back to IQOS...?

因此與激烈的競爭動態有關。因此，與過去相比，所有 3 個主要煙草同行現在似乎都處於更好的境地，至少在產品供應和投資方面如此。我只是想知道您是否可以評論一下 IQOS 在一些競爭更加激烈的市場中的趨勢，您的 3 個主要同行現在都在這些市場中佔有一席之地。例如，我想（聽不清）。那麼 IQOS 持股情況如何，或者 ILUMA 八月份在這些市場的吸引力是否有所下降？您是否看到[其他]品牌和消費者回歸 IQOS……？

Sure, Owen. Actually, you may have seen that our share of the category has remained stable in Q2 at around 75%. So it shows that indeed, there is an increased competition, but the quality of IQOS and notably ILUMA, but not just ILUMA, the overall IQOS proposition is allowing us to -- even if we are more premium to maintain our share of the category, which is very good news. Here, I'm talking about volume. You can imagine in terms of value that is even higher. Now let's be clear, since the beginning, we knew, and I can say we were hoping for the whole industry to embrace heat-not-burn as the category of the future for inhalable nicotine product. And it's great to see a growing commitment from all the player behind that.

當然，歐文。事實上，你可能已經看到，第二季度我們該類別的份額一直穩定在 75% 左右。因此，這表明競爭確實在加劇，但 IQOS 的質量，尤其是 ILUMA，但不僅僅是 ILUMA，整體 IQOS 的主張使我們能夠——即使我們更願意維持我們在該類別中的份額，這是一個非常好的消息。在這裡，我說的是音量。您可以想像更高的價值。現在讓我們明確一點，從一開始我們就知道，而且我可以說我們希望整個行業都將加熱不燃燒作為可吸入尼古丁產品的未來類別。很高興看到所有背後的參與者都做出了越來越多的承諾。

So no doubt that they will come with innovation, ourselves, as you can imagine, we're going to continue to innovate as well. And we will see certainly innovation and maybe new things coming in the future. Now after 6, 7, almost 8 years of launch of IQOS, I think, in terms of franchise, in terms of impact, in terms of strength, in terms of brand power, I think we are really second to none. And we made a clear gap and differential. And I think that this is exactly what we did with Marlboro in the past, which Marlboro was a superior product and recognized for the blend that was unique. But on top of that, we managed to create a unique brand that was extremely appealing. And I think with IQOS, that's what we are repeating today. So IQOS product are clearly better recognized as such. It's a different customer experience. But then the IQOS brand is also iconic, and people are seeing that as part of lifestyle and product they want to associate themselves with, which is a recipe for long-term success.

因此，毫無疑問，他們將帶來創新，我們自己，正如你可以想像的那樣，我們也將繼續創新。我們肯定會看到創新，也許未來還會有新事物出現。現在IQOS推出6年、7年、快8年了，我想，從特許經營方面、從影響力方面、從實力方面、從品牌力方面來說，我認為我們真的是首屈一指的。並且我們做出了明確的差距和差別。我認為這正是我們過去對萬寶路所做的，萬寶路是一種優質產品，並因其獨特的混合物而受到認可。但最重要的是，我們成功創建了一個極具吸引力的獨特品牌。我認為對於 IQOS，這就是我們今天要重複的內容。因此，IQOS 產品顯然更受認可。這是一種不同的客戶體驗。但 IQOS 品牌也是標誌性的，人們將其視為生活方式和產品的一部分，他們希望與之聯繫在一起，這是長期成功的秘訣。

And we will take our final question from Jared Dinges with JPMorgan.

我們將接受摩根大通的賈里德·丁格斯 (Jared Dinges) 提出的最後一個問題。

You talked about the ability to use sea freight finally to supply Japan as you progress throughout Q2. Would you be able to confirm that you're no longer capacity constrained on the (inaudible)?

您談到了隨著第二季度的進展，最終使用海運向日本供貨的能力。您能否確認您不再受到容量限制（聽不清）？

Yes. So we can confirm that for the market where we've been launching today, we have no constraint and therefore, that's the reason why we've been able to move to sea freight. Now there is still a ramp-up for the remaining market that do not have ILUMA today. And this ramp-up is, of course, accompanying the growing capacity. So it doesn't mean that today, we could serve on the 1st of July 100% of all the market -- IQOS market with ILUMA consumable, but we are no longer pressure restriction and the fact that we are back to sea freight, and we have a plan to accompany the growth of the remaining markets in the coming months.

是的。因此，我們可以確認，對於我們今天推出的市場，我們沒有任何限制，因此，這就是我們能夠轉向海運的原因。現在，目前沒有 ILUMA 的剩餘市場仍然在增長。當然，這種增長伴隨著產能的增長。因此，這並不意味著今天我們可以在 7 月 1 日為所有市場——IQOS 市場提供 ILUMA 消耗品的 100% 服務，但我們不再受到壓力限制，事實上我們已經回到了海運，並且我們有計劃在未來幾個月內伴隨其餘市場的增長。

Got it. And maybe just a follow-up on that. So you guys did call out Europe in -- with IQOS saw some further negative inventory moving in Q2. Should we expect that to reverse in H2? Because actually, it's been on the whole in H1, it's been somewhat sizable to negative trend -- inventory (inaudible).

知道了。也許只是後續行動。所以你們確實呼籲歐洲 - IQOS 在第二季度看到了更多的負庫存變化。我們是否應該預期這種情況會在下半年發生逆轉？因為實際上，從上半年的整體情況來看，負面趨勢——庫存（聽不清）——的規模相當大。

Sure. In fact, that Japan was finishing with lower shipment volume than consumer offtake in 2022. That has been reversing in 2023. And Europe went the other way around. Remember, we had to (inaudible) because of uncertainty on availability of product and energy supply in the manufacturing side. And that was expected that the catch-up has been happening mostly in Q1, but still a little bit in Q2. And now we expect to move to normal pattern of shipment versus consumer offtake or in-market sales. And therefore, we expect to have a strong H2, both in terms of shipment progression and in-market sales in Europe back to normal.

當然。事實上，到 2022 年，日本的出貨量將低於消費者的出貨量。這種情況在 2023 年發生了逆轉。而歐洲則恰恰相反。請記住，由於製造方面產品和能源供應的可用性存在不確定性，我們必須（聽不清）。預計追趕主要發生在第一季度，但第二季度仍有一點。現在，我們預計將轉向正常的發貨模式，而不是消費者購買或市場銷售。因此，我們預計下半年的出貨量和歐洲市場銷售將恢復正常。

That's clear. And if I can just follow up, just one last one. On Russia, given the news last week or this week, just can you give an update on if that business is fully ring-fenced at this point?

很清楚。如果我能跟進的話，就最後一個。關於俄羅斯，鑑於上週或本週的新聞，您能否提供有關該業務目前是否完全受到限制的最新信息？

Look, on Russia, we have nothing new to say. We've been explaining in the past communication that the situation was complex. There is no new element. I'm not going to comment on the situation of company that I know nothing about, and we have nothing new to report on Russia at that stage.

看，關於俄羅斯，我們沒有什麼新的可說的。我們在過去的溝通中一直解釋說，情況很複雜。沒有新元素。我不會對我一無所知的公司的情況發表評論，目前我們對俄羅斯沒有什麼新的報導。

Got it. Maybe just in terms of supply, like Russia is not supplying any neighboring markets at this point, right?

知道了。也許只是在供應方面，就像俄羅斯目前不向任何鄰國市場供應一樣，對嗎？

Well, we are, as you can imagine, complying with all regulation, restriction, sanction today, and we are obviously fully compliant.

嗯，正如你想像的那樣，我們今天遵守所有監管、限制和製裁，而且我們顯然完全遵守。

It appears we have no further question on the line. At this time, I will turn the program back over to management for any additional or closing remarks.

看來我們沒有其他問題了。此時，我會將計劃轉回管理層，以供任何補充或結束語。

Thank you. That concludes our call today. Thank you again for joining us. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact the Investor Relations team. Have a great day.

謝謝。我們今天的電話會議到此結束。再次感謝您加入我們。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯繫投資者關係團隊。祝你有美好的一天。

Talk to you soon. Thank you. Bye.

以後再聊。謝謝。再見。

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time, and have a wonderful day.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連接，祝您度過美好的一天。