菲利普莫里斯國際 (PM) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Philip Morris International Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Philip Morris International management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，歡迎參加菲利普莫里斯國際公司 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續約 1 小時，包括菲利普莫里斯國際管理層的講話和問答環節。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Mr. James Bushnell, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communications. Please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係和金融傳播副總裁 James Bushnell 先生。請繼續。

Welcome. Thank you for joining us. Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2022 third quarter results. You may access the release on pmi.com. A glossary of terms, including the definition for reduced risk products or RRPs as well as adjustments, other calculations and reconciliations to most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures and additional smoke-free volume and net revenue data are at the end of today's webcast slides, which are posted on our website.

歡迎。感謝您加入我們。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含有關我們 2022 年第三季度業績的詳細信息。您可以在 pmi.com 上訪問該版本。術語表，包括低風險產品或 RRP 的定義以及調整、其他計算和與最直接可比的美國公認會計原則措施的對賬以及額外的無菸量和淨收入數據位於今天的網絡廣播幻燈片的末尾，其中發佈在我們的網站上。

Unless otherwise stated, all references to IQOS are to our IQOS heat-not-burn products, and all references to smoke-free products are to our RRPs. Growth rates presented on an organic basis reflects currency-neutral adjusted results, excluding acquisitions and disposals. Figures and comparisons presented on a pro forma basis entirely exclude PMI's operations in Russia and Ukraine.

除非另有說明，否則所有提及 IQOS 均指我們的 IQOS 加熱不燃燒產品，所有提及無菸產品均指我們的 RRP。在有機基礎上呈現的增長率反映了貨幣中性調整後的結果，不包括收購和出售。以備考為基礎的數據和比較完全不包括 PMI 在俄羅斯和烏克蘭的業務。

As mentioned previously, starting in the second quarter of 2022 and on a comparative basis, PMI excludes amortization and impairment of acquired intangibles from its adjusted results. Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results. I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements.

如前所述，從 2022 年第二季度開始，在比較基礎上，PMI 從其調整後的結果中排除了收購無形資產的攤銷和減值。今天的評論包含前瞻性陳述和對未來結果的預測。我請您注意今天的演示文稿和新聞稿中披露的前瞻性和警示性聲明，以審查可能導致實際結果與預測或前瞻性聲明產生重大差異的各種因素。

I'm joined today by Jacek Olczak, Chief Executive Officer; and Emmanuel Babeau, Chief Financial Officer. Jacek will join us for the question-and-answer session. Over to you, Emmanuel.

今天，首席執行官 Jacek Olczak 也加入了我的行列。和首席財務官 Emmanuel Babeau。 Jacek 將加入我們的問答環節。交給你了，伊曼紐爾。

Thank you, James, and welcome, everyone. Today marks a historic day in our journey towards a smoke-free future with the certainty that we will have full control of IQOS, the world-leading smoke-free product in the United States, the world's largest smoke-free market, from April 30, 2024. Indeed, today's agreement with Altria removed the potential of a protracted legal process to regain the U.S. right to IQOS, which Altria previously held, subject to performance milestone until 2029.

謝謝你，詹姆斯，歡迎大家。今天標誌著我們邁向無菸未來之旅的歷史性一天，我們確信我們將從 4 月 30 日起在全球最大的無菸市場美國完全控制世界領先的無菸產品 IQOS , 2024 年。確實，今天與奧馳亞達成的協議消除了通過曠日持久的法律程序來重新獲得奧馳亞先前持有的美國 IQOS 權利的可能性，但要達到 2029 年之前的業績里程碑。

We have ambitious plans for the full scale launch and rapid expansion of IQOS in the U.S. market, as soon as we take over an efficient time during the transition period to put our commercial model and related organization and infrastructure in place using our wealth of experience from international markets.

我們有雄心勃勃的計劃，要在美國市場全面推出和快速擴展 IQOS，只要我們在過渡期間利用我們在國際市場。

We see IQOS as the primary vector for establishing a leadership position in the U.S. smoke-free industry, and it will be followed by the other product in our smoke-free portfolio. In this context, Swedish Match offers an immediate position in the oral segment and mutually beneficial synergy at sales force level.

我們將 IQOS 視為在美國無菸行業建立領導地位的主要載體，我們無菸產品組合中的其他產品將緊隨其後。在這種情況下，Swedish Match 在口腔領域提供了直接的地位，並在銷售隊伍層面實現了互惠互利的協同作用。

However, should we sale, we can certainly build a robust sales force as part of our commercial deployment engine during the transition period. Under both scenarios, we see an accelerated path to profitability with an attractive payback period on our IQOS investment given super U.S. unit economic and the absence of a legacy cigarette business. I will cover this in more detail later.

但是，如果我們進行銷售，我們當然可以在過渡期間建立一支強大的銷售隊伍，作為我們商業部署引擎的一部分。在這兩種情況下，鑑於美國的超強單位經濟和缺乏傳統捲菸業務，我們看到了一條加速盈利的道路，我們的 IQOS 投資的投資回收期具有吸引力。稍後我將更詳細地介紹這一點。

With regard to Swedish Match, we announced this morning an update to our offer with our best and final price of SEK 116. Our updated offer retained 90% acceptance condition, which is critical to allow us to capture the full potential of the combination. Now that we are close to the end of the offer period, the increased offer is primarily intended to fairly reflect the higher net value to us of the portion of Swedish Match cash flow, which are in U.S. dollars, given currency movements since our initial offer was announced in May.

關於瑞典火柴，我們今天早上宣布更新我們的報價，我們的最佳和最終價格為 116 瑞典克朗。我們更新的報價保留了 90% 的接受條件，這對於讓我們充分發揮組合的潛力至關重要。現在我們接近要約期結束，增加的要約主要是為了公平地反映瑞典火柴現金流部分對我們的較高淨值，以美元計，考慮到自我們最初要約以來的貨幣變動5月宣布。

Equity markets, the global economy and interest rates have also moved unfavorably since then. As such, we believe the updated price with a premium of 52.5% to the undisturbed share price prior to the initial offer strengthen the attractiveness yet further for Swedish Match shareholders while maintaining strong value creation for PMI shareholders.

自那時以來，股票市場、全球經濟和利率也出現了不利的變化。因此，我們認為更新後的價格較首次報價前未受干擾的股價溢價 52.5%，進一步增強了瑞典火柴股東的吸引力，同時為 PMI 股東創造了強勁的價值。

This is our best and final price and we hope to complete the transaction next month to achieve full ownership. Turning now to our Q3 earnings. We delivered another very strong performance this quarter with HTU volumes ahead of our forecast and robust growth in total volumes, market share and combustible net revenues.

這是我們最好的最終價格，我們希望在下個月完成交易以實現完全所有權。現在轉向我們的第三季度收益。我們在本季度實現了另一個非常強勁的表現，HTU 銷量超出了我們的預測，總銷量、市場份額和可燃物淨收入增長強勁。

With adjusted operating income margin in line with expectation. This resulted in total Q3 adjusted diluted EPS of $1.53, close to our all-time high quarterly high despite notable currency headwinds. IQOS's excellent performance continued with plus 22% growth in pro forma HTU shipment volume, a testament to the continued strengthening of our heat-not-burn portfolio and broad-based growth across key regions.

調整後的營業利潤率符合預期。這導致第三季度調整後的攤薄每股收益總額為 1.53 美元，接近我們的歷史最高季度高點，儘管存在明顯的貨幣逆風。 IQOS 的出色表現繼續保持，備考 HTU 出貨量增長 22%，這證明了我們的加熱不燃燒產品組合的持續加強和關鍵地區的廣泛增長。

IQOS ILUMA continued to drive growth in its launch market. In combustibles, we delivered robust performance with Q3 organic pro forma net revenue growth exceeding plus 4%, driven by accelerated pricing of almost plus 5%.

IQOS ILUMA 繼續推動其發射市場的增長。在可燃品方面，我們實現了強勁的業績，在近 5% 的加速定價的推動下，第三季度有機備考淨收入增長超過 4%。

Cigarette shipment volume was essentially stable and category share grew supported by Marlboro, showcasing the resilience of the brand despite current economic conditions.

在萬寶路的支持下，捲菸出貨量基本穩定，品類份額增長，顯示了該品牌在當前經濟狀況下的韌性。

Turning now to the headline numbers. Our Q3 volumes grew by plus 2.3% on a pro forma basis and by plus 0.6% in total, including Russia and Ukraine. Pro forma net revenues grew organically by plus 6.9% and by plus 6.7% for total PMI. Our total organic net revenue per unit grew by plus 4.5% on a pro forma basis and by plus 6.1% in total, despite lower device revenues. This reflects the increasing weight of IQOS in our sales mix and a step-up in combustible pricing.

現在轉向標題數字。我們的第三季度銷量在備考基礎上增長了 2.3%，包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭在內的總銷量增長了 0.6%。預估淨收入有機增長了 6.9%，總 PMI 增長了 6.7%。儘管設備收入下降，但我們每單位的總有機淨收入在備考基礎上增長了 4.5%，總共增長了 6.1%。這反映了 IQOS 在我們的銷售組合中的權重越來越大，以及可燃物價格的上漲。

Our Q3 adjusted operating income margin declined organically by 100 basis points on a pro forma basis and by 90 basis points in total consistent with our expectations. As previously communicated, this reflect the recovery in device volume, the investment in launching ILUMA, including initially higher unit cost, the impact of supply chain disruption, notably due to the war in Ukraine and increasing global inflationary pressures.

我們第三季度調整後的營業收入利潤率在備考基礎上有機下降了 100 個基點，總共下降了 90 個基點，這與我們的預期一致。如前所述，這反映了設備數量的回升、推出 ILUMA 的投資，包括最初較高的單位成本、供應鏈中斷的影響，尤其是由於烏克蘭戰爭和全球通脹壓力增加。

Despite these headwinds, our strong top line growth and ongoing cost efficiency enabled us to outperform our currency-neutral guidance to deliver adjusted diluted pro forma EPS of $1.33, including unfavorable currency of $0.23, representing plus 8.3% currency-neutral growth, including Russia and Ukraine, we delivered adjusted diluted EPS of $1.53.

儘管存在這些不利因素，但我們強勁的收入增長和持續的成本效率使我們能夠超越我們的貨幣中性指引，實現 1.33 美元的調整後稀釋備考每股收益，包括 0.23 美元的不利貨幣，即加上 8.3% 的貨幣中性增長，包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭，我們提供了 1.53 美元的調整後稀釋每股收益。

Our strong third quarter, combined with a robust H1 supported an excellent delivery for the year-to-date. I would highlight our strong pro forma volume growth of plus 3.4% and organic net revenue growth of plus 7.7%, again, reflecting continued strong IQOS performance, pricing and the recovery of the combustible business in many markets against a pandemic-affected comparison.

我們強勁的第三季度，加上強勁的上半年支持今年迄今為止的出色交付。我將再次強調我們強勁的備考銷量增長 3.4% 和有機淨收入增長 7.7%，這再次反映了 IQOS 的持續強勁表現、定價以及許多市場可燃業務的複蘇與受大流行影響的比較。

Smoke-free net revenue made up around 30% of our year-to-date pro forma total putting us on track to reach our ambition of over 50% by 2025. Our year-to-date operating income margin contracted organically by 110 basis points on a pro forma basis. driven by the factors mentioned previously.

無菸淨收入占我們年初至今備考總額的 30% 左右，使我們有望在 2025 年實現超過 50% 的雄心壯志。我們年初至今的營業收入利潤率有機收縮了 110 個基點在備考的基礎上。受前面提到的因素驅動。

We remain on track to deliver cost savings of $2 billion over 2021, 2023. $1.5 billion of gross savings have already been delivered, including over $200 million in Q3. This allows us to reinvest in the business and mitigate increasing inflationary pressures. Year-to-date, currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS grew by plus 9.7% to $4.11 on a pro forma basis and by plus 8.8% in total to $4.59, an excellent performance.

我們仍有望在 2021 年和 2023 年實現 20 億美元的成本節約。已經實現了 15 億美元的總節約，其中包括第三季度超過 2 億美元。這使我們能夠對業務進行再投資並減輕日益增加的通脹壓力。年初至今，經貨幣中性調整的稀釋後每股收益在備考基礎上增長了 9.7% 至 4.11 美元，總計增長了 8.8% 至 4.59 美元，表現出色。

Now let's turn to the pro forma full year outlook. Given the continued growth of IQOS and robust trends in combustible, we are revising our top line forecast upwards to plus 2% to plus 3% growth in total shipment volume and plus 6.5% to plus 8% growth in organic net revenues. While our top line outlook remains very strong, like many other global companies, we are facing significant inflationary forces in the world economy, and this is reflected in our updated adjusted OI margin forecast.

現在讓我們轉向備考全年展望。鑑於 IQOS 的持續增長和可燃物的強勁趨勢，我們正在將我們的收入預測上調至總出貨量增長 2% 至 3% 以及有機淨收入增長 6.5% 至 8%。儘管與許多其他全球公司一樣，我們的收入前景仍然非常強勁，但我們在世界經濟中面臨著巨大的通脹力量，這反映在我們更新的調整後的 OI 利潤率預測中。

Inflation in our cost of goods remain mid-single digits in the third quarter. However, inflationary pressures are growing as we renew pricing arrangements, notably for certain direct materials, wages, energy and transportation costs.

我們的商品成本通脹在第三季度保持在個位數中。然而，隨著我們更新定價安排，尤其是某些直接材料、工資、能源和運輸成本，通脹壓力正在增加。

In addition, the very strong growth of ILUMA in Japan and other launch markets has an initial negative margin impact, given the higher weight of the consumable and increased cost of both the device and consumable in the first 12 to 18 months of activation. As mentioned previously, the combination of strong demand, global supply chain disruption and the impact of canceling induction HTU production in Russia means our supply chain is not fully optimized.

此外，ILUMA 在日本和其他發射市場的強勁增長對利潤率產生了最初的負面影響，因為在激活的前 12 到 18 個月內，消耗品的重量較高以及設備和消耗品的成本都增加了。如前所述，強勁的需求、全球供應鏈中斷以及取消俄羅斯感應式 HTU 生產的影響意味著我們的供應鏈並未完全優化。

This has resulted in reduced productivity and a number of additional costs, including an approximate $300 million impact from a significant increase in the use of airfreight. As a result, while we continue to expect a rebound in our Q4 adjusted OI margin, partly reflecting higher commercial investment in the prior year. We are now forecasting less expansion than previously expected, with pro forma adjusted organic operating income margin flat to slightly negative for full year.

這導致生產力下降和一些額外成本，包括因空運使用的顯著增加而產生的大約 3 億美元的影響。因此，儘管我們繼續預計第四季度調整後的 OI 利潤率將反彈，部分反映了去年商業投資的增加。我們現在預測擴張幅度低於此前預期，預計調整後的有機營業利潤率全年持平至略微負數。

Despite this change to margin expectations, our top line momentum is strong, and we continue to forecast pro forma adjusted diluted EPS growth of plus 10% to plus 12% for 2022. This translates into a pro forma adjusted diluted EPS forecast of $5.22 to $5.33, including an estimated and favorable currency impact of [$0.87] at prevailing rates, notably due to the euro and Japanese yen.

儘管利潤率預期發生了變化，但我們的收入增長勢頭強勁，我們繼續預測 2022 年備考調整後攤薄每股收益增長 10% 至 12%。這轉化為備考調整後攤薄每股收益預測為 5.22 美元至 5.33 美元，包括按現行匯率計算的 [0.87 美元] 的估計和有利的貨幣影響，特別是由於歐元和日元。

There is a slide in the appendix with further detail on the estimated exchange rate impact. For total PMI, which assumes a full year contribution from Russia and Ukraine, we expect adjusted diluted EPS of almost $6, including an estimated $0.80 unfavorable currency impact.

附錄中有一張幻燈片，詳細說明了估計的匯率影響。對於假設俄羅斯和烏克蘭全年貢獻的總 PMI，我們預計調整後的攤薄後每股收益接近 6 美元，包括估計的 0.80 美元的不利貨幣影響。

Lastly, given the continued success of ILUMA and the cancellation of (inaudible) production in Russia, I just referenced. We are working to further accelerate our production of induction consumable. As we convert and transition capacity from blade to induction, we incur certain inefficiencies and limits on the availability of ILUMA HTUs.

最後，鑑於 ILUMA 的持續成功以及俄羅斯（聽不清）生產的取消，我只是提到了這一點。我們正在努力進一步加快感應耗材的生產。當我們將容量從刀片轉換和轉換到感應時，我們會導致 ILUMA HTU 的可用性出現某些低效和限制。

We are optimizing our inventory level where possible to minimize any impact on consumer availability. However, these factors are a constraint on our shipment and we are updating our HTU shipment volume forecast to 89 billion to 91 billion units for the year. Importantly, this is a short-term supply dynamic.

我們正在盡可能優化我們的庫存水平，以盡量減少對消費者可用性的任何影響。然而，這些因素限制了我們的出貨量，我們將今年的 HTU 出貨量預測更新為 890 億至 910 億台。重要的是，這是一個短期的供應動態。

Consumer offtake trends remain strong, and HTU in-market sales volume are expected to further accelerate their growth to over plus 25% in Q4 while also growing sequentially compared to Q3. The cash generation capacity of our business remains exceptional, as shown through the challenges of recent years. Our balance sheet and cash flow remained strong. We delivered operating cash flow of $7.7 billion year-to-date, representing growth of plus 6.5% on a currency neutral basis.

消費者購買趨勢依然強勁，HTU 市場銷量預計將在第四季度進一步加速增長至超過 25%，同時與第三季度相比也將環比增長。從近年來的挑戰中可以看出，我們業務的現金產生能力仍然非常出色。我們的資產負債表和現金流仍然強勁。年初至今，我們實現了 77 億美元的運營現金流，在貨幣中性的基礎上增長了 6.5%。

Today, we reconfirm our forecast of around $10.5 billion in operating cash flow for the full year despite an estimated currency headwind of around $1.3 billion. This means we expect to deliver an excellent $22.5 billion over 2021 and 2022. Cash flow was flatted somewhat in 2021 by $0.5 billion from one-off impact and the timing factors of certain cash flow, which benefited 2021 at the expense of 2022 and by a further $0.5 billion of working capital improvement.

今天，我們再次確認我們對全年運營現金流量約為 105 億美元的預測，儘管貨幣逆風估計約為 13 億美元。這意味著我們預計將在 2021 年和 2022 年交付出色的 225 億美元。由於一次性影響和某些現金流量的時間因素，2021 年的現金流量略有下降 5 億美元，這些因素使 2021 年受益，但犧牲了 2022 年和進一步增加 5 億美元的營運資金。

However, our 2022 forecast demonstrates underlying growth against this exceptional year. I would also like to highlight that U.S. dollar strength has a positive impact on our net debt, given that more than 60% of our financing is in euro, including derivative overlays.

然而，我們對 2022 年的預測顯示了與這一特殊年份相比的潛在增長。我還想強調美元走強對我們的淨債務產生了積極影響，因為我們超過 60% 的融資是歐元，包括衍生品覆蓋。

This serves to offset the impact on our earnings and combined with strong cash generation, contributed to a $1.5 billion reduction in our net debt since December 2021, which is now below 1.6x adjusted EBITDA on a 12-month rolling basis. This delivery highlights our ability to maintain a strong balance sheet, pay down debt and invest in the growth of our business.

這有助於抵消對我們收益的影響，再加上強勁的現金產生，自 2021 年 12 月以來，我們的淨債務減少了 15 億美元，目前低於 12 個月滾動調整後的 EBITDA 的 1.6 倍。此次交付凸顯了我們維持強勁資產負債表、償還債務和投資於業務增長的能力。

In addition, we recently increased our annualized dividend for the 15th consecutive year in line with our long-term commitment to return cash to shareholders. Turning back to our results. Our total pro forma shipment volume increased by plus 2.3% for Q3 and plus 3.4% year-to-date, putting us comfortably on track to deliver total volume growth for the second consecutive year on both a pro forma and total PMI basis.

此外，我們最近連續第 15 年增加年度股息，以符合我們向股東返還現金的長期承諾。回到我們的結果。我們第三季度的總備考出貨量增長了 2.3%，年初至今增長了 3.4%，使我們在備考和總採購經理人指數基礎上連續第二年實現總出貨量增長。

Pro forma HTU shipment volumes grew by plus 21.9% for the third quarter and plus 15.8% year-to-date. While our shipments have been more volatile this year, reflecting the current supply chain dynamic, HTU IMS growth has been consistently strong with plus 18.2% growth in Q3 and plus 19.2% year-to-date with robust performance in the EU region, Japan and low and middle income market.

第三季度備考 HTU 出貨量增長了 21.9%，年初至今增長了 15.8%。雖然我們今年的出貨量波動更大，反映了當前的供應鏈動態，但 HTU IMS 增長一直強勁，第三季度增長 18.2%，今年迄今增長 19.2%，在歐盟地區、日本和中低收入市場。

As I mentioned, we expect a further acceleration of IMS growth in Q4. Focusing now on combustibles. Our portfolio delivered robust pro forma organic net revenue growth of plus 4.1% in Q3 and essentially stable pro forma shipment volume. Our pro forma pricing accelerated to plus 4.9% in Q3 as we progressively adjust to the inflationary environment. This reflects notable contribution from Australia, Germany and the Philippines and a positive quarterly variance from Indonesia for the first time since Q4 ['29].

正如我所提到的，我們預計第四季度 IMS 增長將進一步加速。現在專注於可燃物。我們的投資組合在第三季度實現了強勁的備考有機淨收入增長 4.1% 和基本穩定的備考出貨量。隨著我們逐步適應通脹環境，我們的備考定價在第三季度加速至 4.9%。這反映了澳大利亞、德國和菲律賓的顯著貢獻以及印度尼西亞自第四季度 ['29] 以來首次出現正的季度變化。

We now expect full year pricing to be around 4%. Our pro forma share of the cigarette category increased by plus 0.2 points year-to-date. This was supported by Marlboro where volumes grew by almost plus 4% for total PMI. With the premium position in a challenging consumer environment, this represents an impressive performance from the world's leading cigarette brand. Our leadership in combustible helps to maximize switching to smoke-free product, and we continue to target a stable category share over time despite the impact of IQOS cannibalization.

我們現在預計全年定價將在 4% 左右。今年迄今為止，我們在捲菸類別中的備考份額增加了 0.2 個百分點。這得到了萬寶路的支持，其總 PMI 的銷量增長了近 4%。憑藉在充滿挑戰的消費環境中的優勢地位，這代表了世界領先捲菸品牌令人印象深刻的表現。我們在可燃物領域的領先地位有助於最大限度地轉向無菸產品，儘管受到 IQOS 蠶食的影響，我們仍將繼續瞄準穩定的類別份額。

The positive combination of stable share in combustible and the continued growth of IQOS positioned us to deliver total market share growth over time. We captured plus 0.5 points of pro forma share gains in Q3 and plus 0.6 points year-to-date with notable contribution from Italy, Indonesia, Japan and Poland. Despite increasing competition in many markets, our leading share of the growing heat-not-burn category has remained stable since the start of the year at around 75% and grew sequentially in the third quarter.

可燃物的穩定份額和 IQOS 的持續增長的積極結合使我們能夠隨著時間的推移實現總市場份額的增長。我們在第三季度獲得了 0.5 點的備考股票收益，今年迄今增加了 0.6 點，其中意大利、印度尼西亞、日本和波蘭的貢獻顯著。儘管許多市場的競爭日益激烈，但我們在不斷增長的加熱不燃燒類別中的領先份額自年初以來一直保持穩定在 75% 左右，並在第三季度環比增長。

This remarkable achievement is supported by the increasing deployment of a 2-tier HTU portfolio, providing adult smokers with an expanding range of innovative and high-quality alternatives to cigarettes. PMI HTUs again strengthened their position as the second largest nicotine brands in markets where IQOS is present with a sequential share gain in Q3 of plus 0.2 points to a record 7.7% share excluding Russia and Ukraine.

2 層 HTU 產品組合的不斷部署支持了這一非凡的成就，為成年吸煙者提供了更多創新和高質量的捲煙替代品。 PMI HTU 再次鞏固了其在 IQOS 市場中第二大尼古丁品牌的地位，第三季度的份額連續增長 0.2 個百分點，達到創紀錄的 7.7%，不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭。

Focusing now on IQOS performance. We estimate there were approximately 19.5 million IQOS users as of September 30, excluding Russia and Ukraine. This reflects growth of around plus 0.5 million users in Q3 and plus 2.7 million year-to-date.

現在專注於 IQOS 性能。我們估計截至 9 月 30 日約有 1950 萬 IQOS 用戶，不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭。這反映了第三季度約 50 萬用戶和年初至今的 270 萬用戶的增長。

As shown on the right-hand side of the slide, the third quarter of each year typically experiences slower pro forma user growth due to seasonal factors. The growth of plus 0.5 million this quarter was very robust in the historical context, noting that the high growth in Q3 2020 benefited from a catch-up effect following the relaxation of COVID restriction on retail location and mobility.

如幻燈片右側所示，由於季節性因素，每年第三季度通常會經歷較慢的備考用戶增長。本季度增加 50 萬的增長在歷史背景下非常強勁，並指出 2020 年第三季度的高增長得益於 COVID 放鬆對零售地點和流動性的限制後的追趕效應。

Importantly, we expect a strong acceleration in user growth in the fourth quarter of 2022. In the EU region, smoke-free net revenue comprised almost 40% of regional net revenue year-to-date with a number of markets well above 50%. This performance clearly shows the way towards our ambition to be predominantly smoke-free by 2025.

重要的是，我們預計 2022 年第四季度用戶增長將強勁加速。在歐盟地區，無菸淨收入今年迄今佔該地區淨收入的近 40%，許多市場遠高於 50%。這一表現清楚地表明了我們實現到 2025 年主要實現無菸的雄心的道路。

Our EU third quarter HTU share increased by plus 2 points compared to Q3 last year to reach 7.3% of total cigarette and HTU industry volume. I would also highlight the plus 0.2 point sequential increase, which is a notably strong performance given the usual seasonality of the convertible market. Most importantly, adjusted IMS volume continued to grow sequentially and reached a record high of 8.7 billion unit on the 4-quarter moving average.

與去年第三季度相比，我們的歐盟第三季度 HTU 份額增加了 2 個百分點，達到捲菸和 HTU 行業總量的 7.3%。我還要強調 0.2 個點的連續增長，考慮到可轉換市場通常的季節性，這是一個顯著的強勁表現。最重要的是，調整後的 IMS 銷量繼續環比增長，並在 4 季度移動平均數上達到了 87 億台的歷史新高。

We expect IMS volume growth to continue in Q4 with a corresponding increase in market share. Please refer to the appendix for additional key city and market share data. With regard to regulation in the EU, we are encouraged by the increasing number of countries adopting multiyear fiscal framework with clear differentiation of smoke-free product such as the recent legislation in Romania. We expect the proposal on the EU Tobacco Excise directive to be published by year-end and hope for a similar approach.

我們預計第四季度 IMS 銷量將繼續增長，市場份額將相應增加。更多重點城市和市場份額數據請參閱附錄。關於歐盟的監管，越來越多的國家採用多年財政框架，明確區分無菸產品，例如羅馬尼亞最近的立法，我們對此感到鼓舞。我們預計有關歐盟煙草消費稅指令的提案將在年底前公佈，並希望採用類似的方法。

As a reminder, the Tobacco Excise directive will require unanimous support for approval by all 27 EU member states. Now let's focus on the performance of ILUMA in the EU region. ILUMA continue to drive user acquisition, switching of existing users and accelerated category growth in both Spain and Switzerland.

提醒一下，煙草消費稅指令需要所有 27 個歐盟成員國的一致支持才能批准。現在讓我們關註一下ILUMA在歐盟地區的表現。 ILUMA 繼續推動西班牙和瑞士的用戶獲取、現有用戶轉換和加速類別增長。

In Q3, both markets experienced another quarter of strong sequential IMS volume growth with offtake exit volume of Altria, now the clear majority of HTU sales in both markets. We also launched ILUMA in Greece at the end of June with promising initial results, and introduced the product to Portugal earlier this month.

在第三季度，隨著奧馳亞的承購退出量，這兩個市場都經歷了又一個季度強勁的連續 IMS 銷量增長，現在這兩個市場的 HTU 銷售量明顯佔多數。我們還於 6 月底在希臘推出了 ILUMA，取得了可喜的初步成果，並於本月初將該產品引入了葡萄牙。

In Japan, the adjusted total tobacco share for our HTU brands increased by plus 2.8 points versus the prior year quarter to 23.6%. As in the EU, Q3 last year saw an optical sequential share decline due to combustible seasonality, making the plus 0.7 point sequential increase this quarter, a notable achievement. IMS again, grew sequentially to reach a record high of 8.3 billion unit on the 4-quarter moving average. This was driven by the impressive performance of IQOS ILUMA and the continued growth in key cities such as Tokyo.

在日本，我們 HTU 品牌的調整後煙草總份額與去年同期相比增加了 2.8 個百分點，達到 23.6%。與歐盟一樣，去年第三季度由於可燃季節性因素，光學份額環比下降，本季度環比增長 0.7 個百分點，這是一個顯著的成就。 IMS 再次環比增長，達到 4 季度移動平均線的 83 億台的歷史新高。這是由 IQOS ILUMA 令人印象深刻的表現以及東京等主要城市的持續增長推動的。

The heat-not-burn category now represents over 1/3 of total tobacco in Japan, with IQOS increasingly driving the year's growth. IQOS ILUMA celebrated its first anniversary of the Japan National launch in September and continues to exhibit strong growth due to excellent conversion, consumer satisfaction and retention rates.

加熱不燃燒類別現在佔日本煙草總量的 1/3 以上，IQOS 越來越多地推動了今年的增長。 IQOS ILUMA 於 9 月慶祝其在日本全國推出一周年，並由於出色的轉化率、消費者滿意度和保留率而繼續呈現強勁增長。

Our premium price area HTUs continued to grow strongly in Q3 and strengthen their position as both the second largest nicotine brand and largest RRP brand in Japan, reaching an exit of tech share of 14.9%. Encouragingly, since HTUs have also grown rapidly since the initial launch in April and national expansion in mid-July, driving consumer acquisition in the mainstream price segment.

我們的溢價區 HTU 在第三季度繼續強勁增長，鞏固了其作為日本第二大尼古丁品牌和最大 RRP 品牌的地位，退出了 14.9% 的技術份額。令人鼓舞的是，由於 HTU 自 4 月首次推出和 7 月中旬全國擴張以來也迅速增長，推動了主流價格段的消費者獲取。

We exited Q3 with a 25% HTU offtake share, a record high and continue to see a long runway of growth in Japan over the coming quarters. In addition to strong IQOS gain in developed countries, we continue to see very promising growth in low and middle income market, which drove around 30% of the company's pro forma HTU growth in Q3. Given the large size of this market, the premium positioning of the existing IQOS portfolio and the relatively early stage of commercialization, this represents outstanding progress.

我們以 25% 的 HTU 承購份額退出第三季度，創歷史新高，並在未來幾個季度繼續看到日本的長期增長。除了發達國家 IQOS 的強勁增長外，我們繼續看到中低收入市場的增長非常有希望，這推動了公司第三季度備考 HTU 增長的 30% 左右。鑑於該市場規模龐大，現有 IQOS 產品組合的高端定位以及相對較早的商業化階段，這代表著顯著的進步。

Strong growth in IMS volume continued and the pro forma share of our HTU brand group plus 0.9 points versus the prior year quarter to 2.8% in Q3, a robust performance considering the impact of seasonality. This reflects success across many markets with notable progress in Lebanon where Q3 of texture in Beirut increased by plus 7 points to 18% and Egypt where offtake share in Cairo is approaching 6%. Further [TCT] data can be found in the appendix. We are also encouraged by recent positive regulatory development in the Philippine where the government passed a new law clearly differentiating combustible and noncombustible tobacco product.

IMS 銷量繼續強勁增長，我們的 HTU 品牌組的備考份額與去年同期相比增加 0.9 個百分點，至第三季度的 2.8%，考慮到季節性的影響，表現強勁。這反映了許多市場的成功，在黎巴嫩取得了顯著進展，貝魯特的第三季度質地增加了 7 個百分點，達到 18%，埃及在開羅的承購份額接近 6%。更多 [TCT] 數據可在附錄中找到。我們也對菲律賓最近的積極監管發展感到鼓舞，政府通過了一項新法律，明確區分可燃和不可燃煙草產品。

Smoke-free products will be regulated separately with different health warnings, permitted product testing or guided trials and rules to be established for product communication and point-of-sale activity that will support the switching of adult smoker to better alternatives. In addition, the latest development from our smoke-free innovation pipeline is a new heat-not-burn device that is especially relevant for low and middle-income market. It is a simple convenient and affordable proposition, which can cater to local test preferences without compromising on the reduced risk profile of the product.

無菸產品將通過不同的健康警告、允許的產品測試或指導性試驗以及為產品交流和銷售點活動制定規則來單獨監管，以支持成年吸煙者轉向更好的替代品。此外，我們無菸創新管道的最新開發是一種新的加熱不燃燒設備，特別適用於中低收入市場。這是一個簡單方便且負擔得起的提議，可以在不影響產品降低風險的情況下滿足當地測試偏好。

We are planning a pilot city launches in Colombia and the Philippines during the fourth quarter as we further extend our portfolio of smoke-free products to serve different consumer needs. As we continue to innovate, it's critical to integrate sustainability through ecodesign principles, circularity and efforts to minimize and manage post-consumer waste. Addressing the environmental impact of our product is a key pillar of our sustainability strategy, which is reflected in our Sustainability Index and form part of our executive compensation scheme.

我們計劃在第四季度在哥倫比亞和菲律賓推出試點城市，進一步擴展我們的無菸產品組合以滿足不同的消費者需求。隨著我們不斷創新，通過生態設計原則、循環性以及盡量減少和管理消費後廢物的努力來整合可持續性至關重要。解決我們產品對環境的影響是我們可持續發展戰略的關鍵支柱，這反映在我們的可持續發展指數中，也是我們高管薪酬計劃的一部分。

Our approach to reduce waste related to cigarette, RRP consumable, device and packaging is covered in the report, case studies and campaign published last month and available via a dedicated microsite on pmi.com. For example, we are progressing well towards our 2025 aspiration of having at least 80% of our shipment volumes covered by markets with anti-littering program in place for cigarette and for over 1 million cumulative smoke-free device to be refreshed or repaired.

我們在上個月發布的報告、案例研究和活動中介紹了我們減少與香煙、RRP 消耗品、設備和包裝相關的浪費的方法，並可通過 pmi.com 上的專用微型網站獲得。例如，我們正在朝著 2025 年的目標取得良好進展，即至少 80% 的出貨量被市場覆蓋，並針對捲菸實施了防亂扔垃圾計劃，並且累計更新或維修了超過 100 萬台無菸設備。

Moreover, during September, more than 10,000 stakeholders from more than 60 markets join cleanup initiatives around the world. I am proud of our ESG performance which continued to be recognized worldwide. Our 2021 low carbon transition plan and our business transformation strategy were recently nominated for sustainability prices. And our Chief Sustainability Officer, Jennifer Motles was nominated for CSO of the Year at the World Sustainability Award.

此外，在 9 月份，來自 60 多個市場的 10,000 多名利益相關者加入了世界各地的清理行動。我為我們的 ESG 表現感到自豪，該表現繼續在全球範圍內得到認可。我們的 2021 年低碳轉型計劃和業務轉型戰略最近被提名為可持續發展價格。我們的首席可持續發展官 Jennifer Motles 在世界可持續發展獎中被提名為年度 CSO。

Moving now to perhaps most impactful news of today. We are delighted to announce that we will soon have full control of IQOS, the world's leading smoke-free product in the United States the world's largest smoke-free market. As previously communicated, following the ITC decision last year prohibiting the import of IQOS into U.S., we have been in discussion with Altria to find the best path forward.

現在轉到今天可能最具影響力的新聞。我們很高興地宣布，我們即將在全球最大的無菸市場美國全面掌控全球領先的無菸產品 IQOS。如前所述，繼去年 ITC 決定禁止將 IQOS 進口到美國之後，我們一直在與奧馳亞進行討論，以尋找最佳的前進道路。

PMI's priority has always been to find a solution that best position IQOS to realize its full potential in the U.S. as quickly as possible. I am excited to report that we have now reach an outcome that achieved this goal. Let me start by briefly summarizing the key terms of the agreement. From April 30, 2024, PMI will have full control over the commercialization of IQOS in the U.S., allowing us to distribute and sell the product and critically engage directly with adult tobacco users.

PMI 的首要任務一直是找到一個最適合 IQOS 的解決方案，以盡快在美國實現其全部潛力。我很高興地報告，我們現在已經取得了實現這一目標的成果。讓我首先簡要總結協議的關鍵條款。從 2024 年 4 月 30 日起，PMI 將完全控制 IQOS 在美國的商業化，使我們能夠分銷和銷售該產品，並與成年煙草用戶直接互動。

As part of the agreement, we will pay a total cash consideration of around $2.7 billion to Altria. We believe this agreement represents excellent value to our shareholders. As with the previous agreement potentially stretching to 2029, this solution provides certainty by avoiding what could have been the protract and uncertain legal process that would have severally held back the development of IQOS. It provides a clear near-term path to commercializing at scale in the U.S. with the unencumbered backing of PMI full strategic and financial commitment to the product success.

作為協議的一部分，我們將向奧馳亞支付總計約 27 億美元的現金對價。我們相信，該協議對我們的股東來說代表著卓越的價值。與可能延長至 2029 年的先前協議一樣，該解決方案通過避免可能會阻礙 IQOS 發展的冗長和不確定的法律程序，提供確定性。在 PMI 對產品成功的全面戰略和財務承諾的無阻礙支持下，它為在美國大規模商業化提供了一條清晰的近期路徑。

IQOS is the world's leading smoke-free product with remarkable and rapid growth achieved across a wide range of international markets. From a standing start in 2015, IQOS is already $9 billion annual net revenue business having created the attractive heat-not-burn category and driving its growth.

IQOS 是世界領先的無菸產品，在廣泛的國際市場上實現了顯著和快速的增長。從 2015 年開始，IQOS 已經是 90 億美元的年淨收入業務，創造了具有吸引力的加熱不燃燒類別並推動了其增長。

The U.S. is the world's biggest accessible nicotine market by retail value. The estimated retail value of its growing smoke market is already around 60% of all international markets combined, excluding China. We have spoken before about our plan to bring a leading portfolio to the U.S., and we expect IQOS to be at the very core of our U.S. smoke-free future just as it already is elsewhere. The U.S. opportunity for IQOS is particularly encouraging given the clear demand from American adults smoker for credible smoke-free alternative to cigarettes.

美國是世界上零售價值最大的尼古丁市場。其不斷增長的煙霧市場的估計零售價值已經佔除中國以外所有國際市場總和的 60% 左右。我們之前曾談到我們將領先的產品組合帶到美國的計劃，我們預計 IQOS 將成為我們美國無菸未來的核心，就像它已經在其他地方一樣。鑑於美國成年吸煙者對可靠的無菸捲菸替代品的明確需求，美國的 IQOS 機會尤其令人鼓舞。

Moreover, current smoke-free products have had limited success in fully switching adult smoker away from cigarette. In the U.S., there are ample opportunity to build adult smoker awareness and understanding of smoke-free product offers something that is particularly true for IQOS given our MRTP authorization.

此外，目前的無菸產品在使成年吸煙者完全遠離香煙方面取得的成功有限。在美國，鑑於我們的 MRTP 授權，有足夠的機會建立成年吸煙者的意識和對無菸產品的理解，這對 IQOS 來說尤其如此。

We are ready to invest behind IQOS to bring it to market at scale across the U.S., starting with full-scale launches in key cities and regions with a plan to progress rapidly to national penetration. IQOS remains the only inhalable smoke-free nicotine product to have received a modified risk tobacco product authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. We know from our experience in over 65 markets worldwide, but IQOS appeal to adult smokers who have tried the product is strong, as demonstrated by high full switching rate.

我們準備投資 IQOS，將其大規模推向美國市場，首先在主要城市和地區全面推出，併計劃迅速推進到全國滲透。 IQOS 仍然是唯一獲得美國食品藥品監督管理局 (Food and Drug Administration) 修改風險煙草產品授權的可吸入無菸尼古丁產品。根據我們在全球 65 個以上市場的經驗，我們知道，IQOS 對嘗試過該產品的成年吸煙者的吸引力很強，正如高完全轉換率所證明的那樣。

We have a strong commitment to build awareness and invest behind the category to drive product trial among American smoker. The true potential for IQOS in the U.S. is substantial, as illustrated by the double-digit national shares achieved in just a few years across a number of Asian, European and other markets, all with varying demographic profiles and adult smoker test preferences. We believe the volume share of 10% of cigarettes and HTUs by 2030 is very achievable with potential to go much further. Importantly, the return on investment for IQOS in the highly profitable U.S. tobacco market is company.

我們堅定地致力於建立知名度並投資該類別，以推動美國吸煙者的產品試用。 IQOS 在美國的真正潛力是巨大的，正如在短短幾年內在許多亞洲、歐洲和其他市場實現的兩位數全國份額所表明的那樣，這些市場都有不同的人口統計資料和成人吸煙者測試偏好。我們相信，到 2030 年，捲菸和 HTU 佔 10% 的銷量份額是可以實現的，並且有可能走得更遠。重要的是，IQOS 在高利潤的美國煙草市場的投資回報是公司。

We estimate the total U.S. industry profit pool at over $20 billion. And with average unit margin on U.S. cigarettes more than 3x greater than for the PMI average, the payback over the next few years on the consideration paid to Altria looks very attractive. As we do not have a legacy cigarette business in the U.S., the opportunity is purely incremental. This also reflects a current excise tax system with no differentiation for heated tobacco product versus cigarette at the federal level and differential on a limited basis in only a handful of state thus presenting a clear additional opportunity over time.

我們估計美國行業的總利潤池超過 200 億美元。美國捲菸的平均單位利潤率是 PMI 平均值的 3 倍以上，未來幾年支付給奧馳亞的代價的回報看起來非常有吸引力。由於我們在美國沒有傳統的捲煙業務，因此機會純粹是增量的。這也反映了當前的消費稅制度，在聯邦一級沒有對加熱煙草產品與捲菸進行區分，並且僅在少數幾個州的有限基礎上存在差異，因此隨著時間的推移提供了明顯的額外機會。

We are already advanced in our plan for IQOS in the U.S. as we prepare for domestic manufacturing and for important regulatory submissions, including for IQOS ILUMA, where we plan to file a PMTA in H2 2023. As mentioned previously, we target the first half of next year for the resumption of IQOS domestic supply, which will be available to Altria under our current arrangement up until PMI assumes full commercial reasonability in April 2024. Our proposed combination with Swedish Match would provide certain U.S. sales and distribution capability.

我們已經在美國的 IQOS 計劃中取得了進展，因為我們為國內製造和重要的監管提交做準備，包括 IQOS ILUMA，我們計劃在 2023 年下半年提交 PMTA。如前所述，我們的目標是上半年明年恢復 IQOS 國內供應，根據我們目前的安排，奧馳亞將可以使用，直到 PMI 在 2024 年 4 月假設完全商業合理性。我們提議的與瑞典火柴的組合將提供一定的美國銷售和分銷能力。

However, in the case of failure, we have a clear path forward for IQOS and the rest of our smoke-free portfolio. Indeed, the most critical part of the IQOS commerce model centered on converting adult smokers rather than distribution. In addition, the U.S. has an established distribution and retail landscape with a clear route to market. We, therefore, also have concrete plan to proceed autonomously in building fully controlled and managed U.S. sales and distribution capabilities over the next 18 months leading up to April 2024 in order to ensure a successful IQOS rollout and the introduction of older smoke-free products should our Swedish Match offer fail.

然而，在失敗的情況下，我們為 IQOS 和我們的其他無菸產品組合製定了明確的前進道路。事實上，IQOS 商業模式最關鍵的部分集中在轉化成年吸煙者而不是分銷。此外，美國擁有成熟的分銷和零售格局，具有清晰的市場路徑。因此，我們還制定了具體計劃，在截至 2024 年 4 月的未來 18 個月內自主建立完全受控和管理的美國銷售和分銷能力，以確保成功推出 IQOS，並應引入較舊的無菸產品我們的瑞典火柴報價失敗。

Indeed, we believe today's agreement is fundamental to unlock the U.S. smoke-free market. As we have shared previously, we expect the heated tobacco category to remain the largest and fastest growing in dollar terms internationally. While the e-vapor and to a lesser extent, nicotine pouch category has paved the way for smoke-free products in the U.S. We know that heated tobacco comes closer to replicating the experience that smokers enjoy with higher conversion and very low unintended use.

事實上，我們相信今天的協議對於打開美國無菸市場至關重要。正如我們之前所分享的，我們預計加熱煙草類別仍將是國際上最大且增長最快的類別。雖然電子蒸汽和較小程度的尼古丁袋類別為美國的無菸產品鋪平了道路。我們知道，加熱煙草更接近於復制吸煙者享受的體驗，具有更高的轉化率和非常低的意外使用。

Conclude today's presentation, our business delivered strong third quarter and year-to-date performance despite some challenging headwinds and we expect to deliver another excellent year of double-digit adjusted diluted EPS growth on a pro forma currency-neutral basis. Most impressive was a continued excellent IQOS performance with strong shipment volume IMS growth, reflecting broad-based momentum in the region, Japan and emerging markets. We remain excited by the promising results of IQOS ILUMA, our rich pipeline of smoke-free innovation and plans for further launches of both ILUMA and (inaudible) In the fourth quarter and in 2023.

總結今天的演講，儘管存在一些具有挑戰性的逆風，我們的業務仍實現了強勁的第三季度和年初至今的業績，我們預計在備考貨幣中性的基礎上，調整後的攤薄後每股收益將再次實現兩位數的出色增長。最令人印象深刻的是 IQOS 的持續出色表現以及 IMS 出貨量的強勁增長，反映了該地區、日本和新興市場的廣泛發展勢頭。我們仍然對 IQOS ILUMA 的可喜成果感到興奮，這是我們豐富的無菸創新管道，以及在第四季度和 2023 年進一步推出 ILUMA 和（聽不清）的計劃。

We continue to accelerate investments in our commercial program, digital engine and R&D for long-term growth as well as behind a number of growth opportunities across category and geography. The return from such investments remain compelling as demonstrated by the exceptional top and bottom line growth delivered over recent years. In addition to growth in smoke-free products, our combustible business continued to perform well with organic net revenue growth and essentially stable pro forma shipment volume. Despite accelerated pricing in the current inflationary environment, temporary margin pressure from inflation and supply chain inefficiency is likely to continue in the coming quarters.

我們將繼續加快對我們的商業計劃、數字引擎和研發的投資，以實現長期增長，並為跨類別和地域的許多增長機會提供支持。此類投資的回報仍然令人信服，近年來實現的超常收入和利潤增長證明了這一點。除了無菸產品的增長外，我們的可燃業務繼續表現良好，有機淨收入增長和基本穩定的備考出貨量。儘管當前通脹環境下定價加速，但通脹和供應鏈效率低下帶來的暫時利潤壓力可能會在未來幾個季度繼續存在。

Importantly, our underlying growth fundamentals remain strong, and we look forward with confidence. We have secured our near-term access to the substantial U.S. opportunity for IQOS, also forming the backbone for introducing our broader smoke-free portfolio. We are now advancing on our plan to launch at scale with or without Swedish Match.

重要的是，我們的基本增長基礎依然強勁，我們充滿信心地向前看。我們已確保我們近期獲得了 IQOS 在美國的大量機會，這也構成了引入我們更廣泛的無菸產品組合的支柱。我們現在正在推進我們的計劃，在有或沒有瑞典火柴的情況下大規模推出。

And finally, we have increased the dividend every year as a public company to the ups and downs of economic and currency cycles. We continue to be steadfastly committed to returning cash to shareholders as we advance towards our ambition to become predominantly smoke-free by 2025.

最後，作為一家上市公司，我們每年都會增加股息，以應對經濟和貨幣週期的起伏。我們繼續堅定不移地致力於向股東返還現金，因為我們朝著到 2025 年實現主要無菸的目標邁進。

Thank you. And before we start the question-and-answer session, please note that we are not able to comment on our offer for Swedish Match beyond what has been announced. All materials related to the offer can be found on the website smokefreeoffer.com. And Jacek Olczak and I, we are now more than happy to answer your questions.

謝謝你。在我們開始問答環節之前，請注意，除了已宣布的內容外，我們無法對瑞典火柴的報價發表評論。所有與優惠相關的材料都可以在網站smokefreeoffer.com 上找到。還有 Jacek Olczak 和我，我們現在非常樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question will come from Chris Growe with Stifel.

我們的第一個問題將來自 Stifel 的 Chris Growe。

I wanted to ask first, if I could, in relation to the operating margin. And I think it was up, if I have my numbers right, about a little over 100 basis points, if I exclude foreign exchange and acquisitions year-to-date. And I just want to get a sense when you look at the operating margin now, your expectation being down a little bit for the year. Does that incorporate a weaker fourth quarter operating margin? And I guess to understand what's behind that, if I have my numbers correct here.

如果可以的話，我想先問一下營業利潤率。而且我認為，如果我的數字正確，如果我排除年初至今的外彙和收購，它會上升大約 100 個基點。當您現在查看營業利潤率時，我只想了解一下，您對這一年的期望會有所下降。這是否包含較弱的第四季度營業利潤率？如果我的數字正確，我想了解這背後的原因。

No, I don't think so, Chris. We are organically before ForEx down for the first 9 months with a number of impact that we described due to the situation, of course, of strong disruption on the supply chain coming from the war in Ukraine and the situation in Russia.

不，我不這麼認為，克里斯。在前 9 個月，我們在 ForEx 之前有機地下跌，我們描述了一些影響，當然，由於烏克蘭戰爭和俄羅斯局勢對供應鏈造成的嚴重破壞。

We have, of course, some element, of course, attached to the development of IQOS ILUMA, and that is, of course, playing. We have a lot of air freight that is impacting the margin. So you have a number of temporary elements that have been with us since almost the beginning of the year, and that drove the operating margin down. I think that it will take a little bit of time for us to be removed. But we also have seen, for the first 9 months, something that is going to obviously stay with us, which is the inflation.

當然，我們有一些元素，當然，依附於 IQOS ILUMA 的開發，當然，那就是玩。我們有很多影響利潤的空運。因此，自今年年初以來，我們一直存在許多臨時因素，這導致營業利潤率下降。我認為我們需要一點時間才能被移除。但我們也看到，在前 9 個月，通脹顯然會持續存在。

We are seeing an inflation level for the time being around mid-single digit. It could strengthen further because when we look at the number of inflation in many countries is above this mid-single-digit numbers. As we've been saying, we are entering into the renewal of a number of contracts that protected us to some extent on the way we are buying energy and the number of components. So that means that this part of inflation is going to stay. But in Q4, actually, with a more positive mix and some maybe one-off having a lower impact, we are expecting rather a better situation on margin evolution versus the first 9 months. So that's the opposite. We expect the Q4 that should be in terms of margin evolution, better than the first 9 weeks.

我們目前看到的通脹水平在中個位數左右。它可能會進一步加強，因為當我們看到許多國家的通貨膨脹數量高於這個中個位數時。正如我們一直在說的那樣，我們正在續簽一些合同，這些合同在某種程度上保護了我們購買能源和組件數量的方式。所以這意味著這部分通貨膨脹將繼續存在。但實際上，在第四季度，由於組合更加積極，而且一些可能一次性的影響較小，我們預計與前 9 個月相比，利潤率演變情況會更好。所以情況正好相反。我們預計第四季度的利潤率應該會好於前 9 週。

Okay. And then just a second question would be in relation to -- you said your volume estimate up for the year, which is very encouraging. You had a very strong performance year-to-date. There's been a lot of concerns about trade down activity, the concerns of consumers having discretionary spending particular in Europe and particularly as we move forward, as energy costs continue to remain so high.

好的。然後只有第二個問題與-您說您對今年的銷量估計值有關，這非常令人鼓舞。今年迄今為止，你的表現非常出色。有很多關於貿易下降活動的擔憂，特別是在歐洲，尤其是在我們向前發展時，消費者對可自由支配支出的擔憂，因為能源成本繼續居高不下。

Are you seeing any signs of that, any trade down activity or anything you could share that would help us get a better feeling for the performance of some of your premium brands?

您是否看到任何跡象、任何降價活動或您可以分享的任何內容，以幫助我們更好地了解您的一些優質品牌的表現？

Chris, it's Jacek. Not really, if you look at the down trading type of a pressure, we still don't see really an acceleration of the tracks, right? So obviously, we see the Indonesia, Philippines under pressure. But it's not much really changed versus what we have seen before.

克里斯，我是傑克。並非如此，如果您查看壓力的下行交易類型，我們仍然看不到真正的軌道加速，對嗎？很明顯，我們看到印度尼西亞、菲律賓面臨壓力。但與我們之前看到的相比，它並沒有太大的變化。

Now one could argue that in some geographies that the inflation has a bit of a lagging sort of evolution but nothing today. And you could see also from the shows of Marlboro, right, that we will look pretty strong on the premium proposition, okay? Despite the fact that we're taking the pricing and there will be pricing -- more pricing to come.

現在有人可能會爭辯說，在某些地區，通貨膨脹有一些滯後的演變，但今天沒有。你也可以從萬寶路的節目中看到，對，我們在溢價主張上看起來很強大，好嗎？儘管我們正在定價並且會有定價 - 更多定價即將到來。

Our next question will come from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的帕梅拉考夫曼。

So the U.S. is clearly a large growth and profit opportunity for IQOS, and it helps that you don't have an existing combustibles business here. How would your commercialization strategy in the U.S. change if you came into the U.S. through Swedish Match or independently? And how should investors think about the required level of investment to commercialize IQOS in the U.S. and the impact to your growth algorithm?

因此，對於 IQOS 來說，美國顯然是一個巨大的增長和盈利機會，而且你在這裡沒有現有的可燃物業務會有所幫助。如果您通過瑞典火柴或獨立進入美國，您在美國的商業化策略將如何變化？投資者應該如何考慮在美國將 IQOS 商業化所需的投資水平以及對您的增長算法的影響？

Yes. So -- I mean what stands behind the success of IQOS is really the front-end consumer interface, right? That's the commercialization aspect, which makes -- is one of the key elements of IQOS success, which we measure as the highest in tender rates of conversion and adoption of IQOS and therefore, switching from cigarettes. Swedish Match doesn't have it, right? So Swedish Match is the component of the sales force, which is essentially in store execution, the IQOS success hinges on that business-to-consumer component.

是的。所以——我的意思是 IQOS 成功背後的真正原因是前端消費者界面，對吧？這就是商業化方面，這使得 - 是 IQOS 成功的關鍵要素之一，我們將其衡量為 IQOS 的轉化率和採用率最高，因此從香煙轉向。瑞典火柴沒有，對吧？所以瑞典火柴是銷售隊伍的組成部分，本質上是在商店執行中，IQOS 的成功取決於企業對消費者的組成部分。

So in above scenario, obviously, that's the investment, which is front of us, but vis-a-vis a great -- the market size in the profitability pool. So Swedish Match adds the component of the sales force, which is the in-store execution. Obviously, it would be nice to have them, but this is not something which is unique in a sense that -- but you cannot make it or attain it organically, for example, okay? Or other options can be at the table as well.

因此，在上述情況下，顯然這是擺在我們面前的投資，但相對於一個巨大的盈利池中的市場規模。所以瑞典火柴增加了銷售隊伍的組成部分，即店內執行。顯然，擁有它們會很好，但這在某種意義上並不是獨一無二的——但你不能有機地實現或獲得它，例如，好嗎？或者其他選項也可以在桌面上。

The uniqueness of an IQOS is again is the commercial -- engine commercial activations. If you follow us closer, we have spent enormous effort in -- behind the consumer journey and automating, digitalizing, all touch points with the consumers. And that's the value which we will be bringing. We'll have to invest, but the know-how is on our side.

IQOS 的獨特性再次在於商業——引擎商業激活。如果你更密切地關注我們，我們在消費者旅程的背後以及與消費者的所有接觸點的自動化、數字化方面付出了巨大的努力。這就是我們將帶來的價值。我們將不得不投資，但專業知識就在我們身邊。

Okay. And then I have a question about the 90% threshold for the Swedish Match deal, which appeared difficult to achieve in most circumstances, would you consider lowering the threshold in the event that fewer shareholders tender? And what would be the challenges in operating the asset with a lower owners stake?

好的。然後我有一個關於瑞典火柴交易的 90% 門檻的問題，在大多數情況下似乎很難實現，如果股東投標減少，你會考慮降低門檻嗎？以較低的所有者權益運營資產將面臨哪些挑戰？

Well, we have asked for some understanding, they're not getting the questions on the Swedish Match deal, like the fact of life is, it is SEK 116 and the 90% acceptance level, okay? And this is where we see the value of Swedish Match, the maximum of the value to Swedish Match today, and I will not comment beyond this whole fact. I think it is a fair market price. Fair valuation of the company for the both group of the shareholders, PMI shareholders, Swedish Match shareholders, both long term and short term, and we will not comment beyond this one.

好吧，我們已經要求一些理解，他們沒有得到關於瑞典火柴交易的問題，就像生活中的事實一樣，它是 116 瑞典克朗和 90% 的接受水平，好嗎？這就是我們看到瑞典火柴價值的地方，是今天瑞典火柴價值的最大值，我不會在整個事實之外發表評論。我認為這是一個公平的市場價格。公司的長期和短期股東群體、PMI 股東、瑞典火柴股東的公平估值，我們不會對此發表評論。

Our next question will come from Gaurav Jain with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain。

A couple of questions from me. So first is on the entire plan around IQOS commercialization in the U.S., and let's assume you are doing it stand-alone. So you will have to hire, and I'm looking at some of your competitors, which have a 10% share in the U.S. like Imperial. So they have a few thousand employees. So if you have to hire a few thousand employees and then you incur marketing investments, so should we model in like a few hundred million dollar of losses in the first few years before you scale up IQOS to a big enough volume where it starts generating incremental EBIT? Much like you had when you commercialize IQOS around the world, I remember like between '15 and '17, you had like a few -- like $700 million or $1 billion kind of loss that you had identified at that time. So is that something similar we should do as you commercialize U.S.?

我有幾個問題。因此，首先是圍繞美國 IQOS 商業化的整個計劃，讓我們假設您是獨立進行的。所以你將不得不僱傭，我正在尋找你的一些競爭對手，它們在美國擁有 10% 的份額，比如帝國。所以他們有幾千名員工。因此，如果您必須僱用幾千名員工，然後您需要進行營銷投資，那麼在您將 IQOS 擴大到足夠大的規模並開始產生增量之前，我們是否應該在頭幾年模擬幾億美元的損失息稅前利潤？就像您在全球範圍內將 IQOS 商業化時遇到的情況一樣，我記得在 15 到 17 年間，您有過幾次——比如您當時確定的 7 億美元或 10 億美元的損失。那麼，當您將美國商業化時，我們應該做類似的事情嗎？

Yes. I mean, look, directionally you're right. I mean, obviously, building the infrastructure looking from a scratch requires several hundred thousands of employees. Now in the scheme of the 80,000 employees, which PMI has, no, it's not the first time that we're building an organization from scratch. And you're absolutely right that the initial years, couple of years will be on the loss as frankly speaking we had with IQOS in every country which we enter and if you following us closely, that we have achieved on markets, the faster path to the breakeven that we had in the year 1 or 2 of our smoke-free journey versus what we're achieving today. So it's a ton of learnings, it's tremendous learning and capability in our organization. I call the internal know-how and the systems, et cetera, which we don't have to reinvent again. So we know pretty well the blueprint.

是的。我的意思是，看，方向你是對的。我的意思是，顯然，從頭開始構建基礎設施需要數十萬員工。現在在 PMI 擁有的 80,000 名員工的計劃中，不，這不是我們第一次從頭開始建立組織。坦率地說，我們在進入的每個國家都使用 IQOS，如果您密切關注我們，我們已經在市場上取得了更快的成功，您絕對是對的。我們在無菸之旅的第一年或第二年實現的盈虧平衡與我們今天所取得的成就。所以這是大量的學習，這是我們組織中巨大的學習和能力。我稱之為內部技術和系統，等等，我們不必再次重新發明。所以我們非常了解藍圖。

A lot of things have been attached, et cetera. So U.S. market will enjoy your leverage that sort of the things. So we'll -- summer next year will come with the more visibility on how we see the spending in the path. I think in the release, we have said that the most logical based on our experience and the success on international most logical milestone near term, so let's say, 2030 (inaudible) points of the market, which if we see where we are in other places and what we achieved 6 years after I to date versus now I had the 6 years plus/minus to the current 2030, 10%, I think we will execute accordingly. We have a manual increase -- the remarks made it very clear. We'll fully stand behind, including monitory and the human resources to deliver the success is well overdue success of IQOS in the U.S.

已經附加了很多東西，等等。所以美國市場會享受你的槓桿作用。因此，我們將 - 明年夏天將更多地了解我們如何看待路徑中的支出。我認為在發布中，我們已經說過，根據我們的經驗和近期在國際上最合乎邏輯的里程碑上的成功是最合乎邏輯的，所以讓我們說，市場的 2030 年（聽不清）點，如果我們看到我們在其他方面的位置地點和我們在我迄今為止的 6 年後取得的成就與現在相比，我在 2030 年有 6 年的正負值，10%，我認為我們將相應地執行。我們有手動增加——評論說得很清楚。我們將全力支持，包括監控和人力資源，以實現 IQOS 在美國早該取得的成功。

Sure. And a follow-up question on the BAT litigation at ITC, which they won, the patent dispute. So look, so that prevents you from importing IQOS devices, which is why you are now setting up the domestic manufacturing facilities, but can't BAT use those patent wins because clearly, they have established, they have some strength in their patent and go to a domestic U.S. court and also get injunctions against your selling of IQOS devices in the domestic market. So I'm trying to understand how do you frame this entire patent litigation even around your domestic IQOS manufacturing and commercialization sort of strategy.

當然。還有一個關於他們在 ITC 的 BAT 訴訟中獲勝的後續問題，即專利糾紛。所以看，這樣就阻止了你進口 IQOS 設備，這就是為什麼你現在正在建立國內製造設施，但 BAT 不能使用那些獲得專利的原因，因為很明顯，他們已經建立，他們在專利方面有一些實力，然後去到美國國內法院，並獲得禁止您在國內市場銷售 IQOS 設備的禁令。因此，我試圖了解您如何圍繞您的國內 IQOS 製造和商業化戰略構建整個專利訴訟。

Well, on that one, we have to clarify. One thing is the ITC process where, indeed, there was a decision from ITC. But otherwise, on the federal circuit, I would say, for the time being, there is rather success on our side. One of the family of patents that has been claimed by BAT on their case with ITC was actually recognized as not valid in front of a U.S. court. So I don't think that you can draw a parallel between what happened in the ITC and what is happening on the federal level in the U.S. And we believe that the domestic manufacturing is giving us a clear path and the capacity to reenter the U.S. market.

好吧，關於那個，我們必須澄清一下。一件事是 ITC 流程，實際上，ITC 做出了決定。但除此之外，在聯邦巡迴賽上，我想說，就目前而言，我們這邊取得了相當大的成功。 BAT 在其與 ITC 的案件中主張的專利家族之一實際上在美國法院被認定為無效。因此，我認為您無法將 ITC 發生的事情與美國聯邦層面發生的事情相提並論。我們相信，國內製造業為我們提供了一條清晰的道路和重新進入美國市場的能力.

Okay. And if I could just ask one follow-up on what you just said, the IQOS ILUMA device, does it bypass all these patents, which are under dispute?

好的。如果我可以就你剛才所說的問題進行後續跟進，IQOS ILUMA 設備是否繞過了所有這些存在爭議的專利？

The case which we have with ITC case with -- started by BAT is with regards to the IQOS 3.0 -- ILUMA is in a completely different path.

我們在 ITC 案例中的案例——由 BAT 發起的是關於 IQOS 3.0——ILUMA 的路徑完全不同。

Our next question will come from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的 Bonnie Herzog。

My first question is on your guidance. Your Q3 came in better than expected, and you took up your full year currency-neutral revenue guidance. But I guess I'm trying to reconcile this with your lower guidance on IQOS. I guess this implies you now expect stronger results in your combustible business and possibly greater device sales. So could you walk through this for us, especially on device sales, expectations in the second half, possibly ramping? And if there's a risk of retail inventory building that could potentially impact results next year?

我的第一個問題是關於您的指導。您的第三季度業績好於預期，並且您採用了全年貨幣中性收入指導。但我想我正試圖將此與您對 IQOS 的較低指導相協調。我想這意味著您現在期望在您的可燃物業務中取得更強勁的結果，並且可能會增加設備銷售量。那麼您能否為我們介紹一下，尤其是在設備銷售、下半年的預期、可能會增加方面？如果存在可能影響明年業績的零售庫存增加的風險？

Yes, Bonnie. So no, there is nothing to do with the device in the guidance. You're right. We have slightly been moving the bracket for the HTUs volume, not massive, 90% to 92%, and we are now 89% to 91%. So they are still part of the bracket that is the same. Clearly, we see some compensation at the level of a very robust combustible business. I think I've been flagging that in detail in the presentation.

是的，邦妮。所以不，與指南中的設備無關。你是對的。我們已經稍微移動了 HTU 數量的支架，而不是大量，從 90% 到 92%，我們現在是 89% 到 91%。所以它們仍然是相同的括號的一部分。顯然，我們在非常穩健的可燃業務水平上看到了一些補償。我想我已經在演示文稿中詳細標記了這一點。

And that is giving us this visibility on higher growth in volume than what we were anticipating so far, and we are raising the guidance to plus 2% to 3%. We have been raising the guidance for revenue as well with the low end of the bracket that has been raised to plus 6.5%. And then we have the same adjusted EPS, notably because we see costs that are probably potentially a bit higher than what we anticipated a few weeks ago. So that is giving us the same bracket for adjusted EPS. But in a nutshell, that is how the guidance is evolving.

這讓我們看到了比我們迄今為止預期的更高的銷量增長，我們將指導提高到 2% 至 3%。我們也一直在提高收入指導，並將低端的收入提高到 6.5%。然後我們有相同的調整後每股收益，特別是因為我們看到成本可能比我們幾週前的預期要高一些。因此，這為我們提供了調整後每股收益的相同括號。但簡而言之，這就是指導的發展方式。

Okay. And then just my second question, I -- sorry, I have a follow-up question about the agreement you reached with Altria, maybe asked a little differently. I guess I'm trying to get a sense of how you got comfortable with $2.7 billion payment to Altria, which is quite a large lump sum of money. This is to get your exclusive rights to IQOS back in the U.S.

好的。然後是我的第二個問題，對不起，我有一個關於你與奧馳亞達成的協議的後續問題，可能問的有點不同。我想我想了解你是如何接受向奧馳亞支付 27 億美元的，這是一筆相當大的一筆款項。這是為了讓您在美國獲得 IQOS 的專有權。

So how confident are you that you're going to be able to reach this 10% share in the U.S. market by 2030, especially since it does feel like the ramp will now likely be slower, if you have to go it alone or even with Swedish Match? And then finally, as it relates to this, how do you think about not being able to use the Marlboro brand name in the U.S. now?

因此，您對到 2030 年能夠在美國市場上達到 10% 的份額有多大信心，尤其是因為如果您必須單獨甚至與瑞典比賽？最後，與此相關，您如何看待現在無法在美國使用萬寶路品牌名稱？

Yes. So regards to the confidence, Bonnie, is that look, this confidence beyond the IQOS is growing every year, every quarter. I mean you see the results on the international markets and we have the market, when we slower markets, when we faster. But the potential for IQOS, the heat-not-burn is there, okay? So -- if we look at the U.S., I don't think -- I cannot find the reasons. But in the U.S., we cannot replicate to come close to the success of international.

是的。所以關於信心，邦妮，看起來，這種超越 IQOS 的信心每年、每個季度都在增長。我的意思是你在國際市場上看到了結果，我們有市場，當我們放慢市場時，當我們更快時。但是 IQOS 的潛力，加熱不燃燒是存在的，好嗎？所以——如果我們看看美國，我不認為——我找不到原因。但在美國，我們無法複製以接近國際的成功。

And the 10%, if you like, the first double-digit number, which we are obtaining after 6 years in any other geographies and taking into considerations that U.S. starting with IQOS free that we will be also working to bring faster the IQOS ILUMA to the U.S. and our international success has been built on IQOS 2.4, 2.4-plus.

還有 10%，如果你願意的話，第一個兩位數，我們在 6 年後在任何其他地區獲得，並考慮到美國從免費 IQOS 開始，我們也將努力加快 IQOS ILUMA 到美國和我們的國際成功建立在 IQOS 2.4、2.4+ 之上。

So the U.S. is starting the journey with IQOS, the much better moment from a product perspective of our capability perspective, understanding this entire category that we've been in our international markets. So this is what the confidence is coming from. And the second question regards the Marlboro, IQOS (inaudible) in Japan is now by X factor bigger than the HeatSticks Marlboro.

因此，美國開始了 IQOS 的旅程，從我們能力的產品角度來看，這是一個更好的時刻，了解我們在國際市場上的整個類別。所以這就是信心的來源。第二個問題是關於萬寶路的，日本的 IQOS（聽不清）現在比 HeatSticks 萬寶路大 X 倍。

And this was the last market, which we still have been using a Marlboro trademark of our heat-not-burn consumables. And as you know, at the very beginning, 6 or so years ago in a few markets, I recall it was Switzerland and Italy, we started with Marlboro and very early in the journey, we have almost overnight, we branded the (inaudible) dropped the Marlboro from the brand, from the proposition. And I actually believe that we have a Marlboro International, and this is a great brand, but on cigarettes.

這是最後一個市場，我們仍然在使用我們的加熱不燃燒易損件的萬寶路商標。如您所知，一開始，大約 6 年前，在一些市場上，我記得是瑞士和意大利，我們從萬寶路開始，在旅程的很早的時候，我們幾乎在一夜之間就打上了（聽不清）將萬寶路從品牌中，從提議中刪除。而且我實際上相信我們有一個萬寶路國際，這是一個很棒的品牌，但在香煙上。

And I have no doubt today that we are on the path that we can make IQOS as iconic brand on a global basis as in the past would have made Marlboro. So I don't see this as an patent in bottom neck in our strategy in the U.S.

今天我毫不懷疑，我們正走在讓 IQOS 成為全球標誌性品牌的道路上，就像過去讓萬寶路一樣。所以我不認為這是我們在美國戰略中的一項專利。

Our next question will come from Priya Ohri-Gupta with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的 Priya Ohri-Gupta。

First, I just had a quick administrative question. What is the U.S. dollar equivalent for the revised Swedish Match offer? Should we just use the current exchange rate? Or would there be an adjustment for any hedging that might have previously been put in place? And then I have another follow-up.

首先，我有一個快速的行政問題。修訂後的瑞典火柴報價的美元等值是多少？我們應該只使用當前的匯率嗎？或者是否會對之前可能實施的任何對沖進行調整？然後我有另一個跟進。

I'm not sure to understand your question, Priya. I mean, the offer is in Swedish Krona, and we'll pay it in Swedish Krona. Now what we've been -- importantly the fact that the price increase that we are offering today correspond to the impact of the currency fluctuation since the day of the announcement in May between the dollar and the Swedish Krona, noting that a significant portion of the cash flow generated by Swedish Match is in dollar. That's it. So I'm not sure to understand your question.

我不確定你的問題，普里亞。我的意思是，報價是瑞典克朗，我們將用瑞典克朗支付。現在我們已經成為 - 重要的是，我們今天提供的價格上漲對應於自 5 月宣布美元和瑞典克朗之日以來貨幣波動的影響，並指出很大一部分瑞典火柴產生的現金流以美元為單位。而已。所以我不確定你的問題。

It was just whether -- so when you announced the transaction, the dollar amount would have been $16 billion. And you're still sort of close to that just given the FX move, but was there any incremental hedging that was put in place?

只是是否 - 所以當你宣布交易時，美元金額將是 160 億美元。考慮到外匯走勢，你仍然有點接近這一點，但是否有任何增量對沖措施到位？

We can make our calculation. We can provide you with a number of shares of Swedish Match and you can make the calculation. So in dollar terms, I think the amount is slightly lower. But again, please take into account the fact that Swedish Match is not 100% generating cash flow in dollars, okay? So you cannot just take the dollar amount at 100%, to be very clear.

我們可以進行計算。我們可以為您提供一定數量的瑞典火柴，您可以進行計算。所以以美元計算，我認為金額略低。但同樣，請考慮瑞典火柴並不是 100% 產生美元現金流的事實，好嗎？因此，非常清楚，您不能只將美元金額設為 100%。

That's helpful. And then as we think about sort of the 10% share that you've discussed getting to by 2030 in the U.S. market, how much of that includes contribution from ILUMA, I guess, as you put PMTA or submit the PMTA in the latter half next year, what sort of time line are you assuming around that getting to market and getting nationalized?

這很有幫助。然後，當我們考慮到您所討論的到 2030 年在美國市場達到的 10% 份額時，我猜其中有多少包括來自 ILUMA 的貢獻，因為您在下半年提交 PMTA 或提交 PMTA明年，您假設進入市場並實現國有化的時間表是什麼？

Well, I mean, we're planning to file for PMTA with ILUMA to FDA next year. So as we've seen recently, the factoring, the timing of outcome of dealing with FDA is a little bit of a challenge. But there will be ILUMA, obviously, in this 10%. I won't give you the number now how much of the 10% is hinging on ILUMA, but let's take it again differently. We have a few markets very successful, but still very few markets when ILUMA played the role today in our portfolio.

嗯，我的意思是，我們計劃明年向 ILUMA 向 FDA 提交 PMTA。因此，正如我們最近看到的那樣，與 FDA 打交道結果的時間安排是一個挑戰。但顯然，這 10% 中會有 ILUMA。我現在不會給你這個數字，這 10% 中有多少取決於 ILUMA，但讓我們以不同的方式再看一遍。我們有一些市場非常成功，但當 ILUMA 今天在我們的產品組合中發揮作用時，市場仍然很少。

And if you look, for example, for the European Union, almost entirely, the success of new 6 years in commercialization of IQOS is built on the IQOS 2.4, 2.4 plus and at 3, 3.1. So these are the products which we have a relatively clear path to grow in the U.S. So there will be ILUMA, but it's too early now to say how much of the 10% will be there. Obviously, for us, it's -- ILUMA offers benefits even further than the blade technology. But on the blade technology, this is where we are today, 6 years in PMI. So I think we'll -- we don't have to solve that equation today.

例如，如果你看一下歐盟，幾乎整個 IQOS 商業化新 6 年的成功都建立在 IQOS 2.4、2.4 plus 和 3、3.1 之上。所以這些是我們在美國有相對明確的增長路徑的產品。所以會有 ILUMA，但現在說 10% 中會有多少還為時過早。顯然，對我們而言，ILUMA 提供的好處甚至比刀片技術還要多。但在刀片技術方面，這就是我們今天的情況，PMI 已有 6 年了。所以我想我們會——我們今天不必解這個方程。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just final question for me. I think as you discussed the inflationary pressure ramping from some of the contract renewals that you're going through right now on the input side. How should we think about that headwind? Is it fair to think of that sort of mid-single-digit rising to the high single digits. And then in terms of cadence, is it fair to assume sort of the greatest effect of that being on the first half of calendar '23 and then sort of moderating into the back half as you start to lap some of that.

好的。這很有幫助。然後是我的最後一個問題。我認為當你討論你現在在輸入端經歷的一些合同續簽帶來的通脹壓力時。我們應該如何看待這種逆風？考慮這種中個位數上升到高個位數是否公平。然後就節奏而言，假設在 '23 日曆的前半部分產生的最大影響是公平的，然後當你開始跑一些時會緩和到後半部分。

Look, on the inflationary pressure, of course, very difficult to give a kind of definitive answer because this is a very fluid situation and with significant evolution. Today, if we assume that at a certain point in time, the inflation we are facing will be in line with the inflation that is seen in many countries. Yes, that would probably mean that the mid-single digit could go to high single digit. It's it can be a bit more complex than that because, of course, it depends on which kind of element of inflation we are exposed to.

看，關於通脹壓力，當然很難給出一個明確的答案，因為這是一個非常不穩定的情況，並且有顯著的演變。今天，如果我們假設在某個時間點，我們面臨的通貨膨脹將與許多國家的通貨膨脹一致。是的，這可能意味著中個位數可能會變成高個位數。它可能比這更複雜一些，因為當然，這取決於我們所面臨的通貨膨脹因素的類型。

But that could be in some areas an evolution for next year. Frankly, too early to say. And also too early to say when is going to be climax of that. Is it going to be at the end of this year, in terms of cost increasing. Are we going to see more inflation through 2023. I think it's too early to say. Of course, for the -- I mean, we'll monitor the situation, but I would say energy price is energy prices, there is not much we can do. We still need to buy energy. The answer for it is, of course, to react with price increase.

但這在某些領域可能是明年的演變。坦率地說，現在說還為時過早。而且說什麼時候達到高潮還為時過早。在成本增加方面，是否會在今年年底。到 2023 年我們是否會看到更多的通貨膨脹。我認為現在說還為時過早。當然，對於--我的意思是，我們會監控情況，但我會說能源價格就是能源價格，我們無能為力。我們仍然需要購買能源。答案當然是對價格上漲做出反應。

And I think you have seen in our Q3, an acceleration of our price increase, we are getting at almost 5%, which is showing the capacity depending on what's going to be the environment and whatever it is to mitigate the impact of what we're going to see on inflationary pressure with price increase.

而且我認為您在我們的第三季度已經看到，我們的價格上漲加速，我們幾乎達到了 5%，這表明產能取決於環境以及減輕我們的影響的任何措施。再看通脹壓力和物價上漲。

This does conclude today's Q&A portion. I would now like to turn the program back over to management for any additional or closing remarks.

今天的問答部分到此結束。我現在想將該計劃交還給管理層，以獲取任何額外的或結束的評論。

So thank you very much for your attention. We're very happy that we spend an hour with you, especially in this very important moment for us that our key strategy focus over the last good few months, if not longer, is how to find much more clear and predictable path to the U.S. has been achieved towards the -- achieving the deal with Altria and regaining the full control of IQOS. So we're very happy that you spend an hour with us today. Thank you.

所以非常感謝您的關注。我們很高興與您共度一個小時，特別是在這個對我們來說非常重要的時刻，我們在過去幾個月（如果不是更長時間）的關鍵戰略重點是如何找到更清晰和可預測的通往美國的道路。已經實現了 - 與奧馳亞達成交易並重新獲得對 IQOS 的完全控制權。所以我們很高興你今天和我們一起度過了一個小時。謝謝你。

Thank you. See you soon.

謝謝你。再見。

That concludes our call today. Thank you again for joining us. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact the Investor Relations team. Thank you again, and have a nice day.

我們今天的電話到此結束。再次感謝您加入我們。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯繫投資者關係團隊。再次感謝您，祝您有美好的一天。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's event. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。女士們，先生們，今天的活動到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。