菲利普莫里斯國際 (PM) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Philip Morris International Fourth Quarter 2022 and Full Year Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Philip Morris International management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Media representatives on the call will also be invited to ask questions at the conclusion of the questions from the investment community.

美好的一天，歡迎來到菲利普莫里斯國際公司 2022 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。今天的電話會議計劃持續約 1 小時，包括菲利普莫里斯國際管理層的講話和問答環節。 （操作員說明）電話中的媒體代表也將被邀請在投資界問題結束時提問。

I will now turn the call over to Mr. James Bushnell, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communications. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係和金融傳播副總裁 James Bushnell 先生。請繼續，先生。

Welcome. Thank you for joining us. Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2022 fourth quarter and full year results. You may access the release on pmi.com. A glossary of terms, including the definition for smoke-free products as well as adjustments, other calculations and reconciliations to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures and additional smoke-free volume and net revenue data are at the end of today's webcast slides, which are posted on our website.

歡迎。感謝您加入我們。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含有關我們 2022 年第四季度和全年業績的詳細信息。您可以訪問 pmi.com 上的版本。術語表，包括無菸產品的定義以及調整、其他計算和與最直接可比的美國 GAAP 措施的調節以及額外的無菸量和淨收入數據在今天的網絡廣播幻燈片的末尾，其中發佈在我們的網站上。

Growth rates presented on an organic basis reflects currency-neutral adjusted results, excluding acquisitions and disposals. As such, figures and comparisons presented on an organic basis exclude Swedish Match up until November 11, 2023. As mentioned previously, starting in the second quarter of 2022 and on a comparative basis, PMI excludes amortization and impairments of acquired intangibles from its adjusted results.

在有機基礎上呈現的增長率反映了貨幣中性調整後的結果，不包括收購和處置。因此，截至 2023 年 11 月 11 日，在有機基礎上提供的數據和比較不包括瑞典火柴。如前所述，從 2022 年第二季度開始，在比較基礎上，PMI 從其調整後的結果中排除了所收購無形資產的攤銷和減值.

Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results. I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements.

今天的評論包含前瞻性陳述和對未來結果的預測。請注意今天的演示文稿和新聞稿中披露的前瞻性和警示性陳述，以審查可能導致實際結果與預測或前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的各種因素。

I'm joined today by Jacek Olczak, Chief Executive Officer; and Emmanuel Babeau, Chief Financial Officer. Over to you, Jacek.

今天，首席執行官 Jacek Olczak 加入了我的行列；和首席財務官 Emmanuel Babeau。交給你了，亞采克。

Thank you, James, and welcome, everyone. We had a remarkable year for our smoke-free transformations in 2022. Despite the exceptional challenges of the war in Ukraine, severe supply chain disruptions and global inflation, we delivered very strong financial performance and took 2 major strategic strides towards a smoke-free future.

謝謝你，詹姆斯，歡迎大家。 2022 年是我們無菸轉型的非凡一年。儘管烏克蘭戰爭、嚴重的供應鏈中斷和全球通貨膨脹帶來了特殊挑戰，但我們實現了非常強勁的財務業績，並朝著無菸未來邁出了 2 大戰略步伐.

I would like to express my deepest thanks to all my colleagues who spared no effort to drive excellent business results during this unprecedented times. Our thoughts also continue to be with those affected by the war in Ukraine and the recent tragedy in Turkey and Syria.

我要向所有同事表示最深切的感謝，他們在這個前所未有的時期不遺餘力地推動了卓越的業務成果。我們也繼續與那些受烏克蘭戰爭和最近土耳其和敘利亞悲劇影響的人同在。

In 2022, PMI delivered its second consecutive year of total volume growth, reflecting continued IQOS progress and broadly stable cigarette volumes. Full year smoke-free net revenues reached almost 1/3 of total PMI and over 50% in 70 markets. This is impressive progress towards our ambition of becoming a predominantly smoke-free company by net revenues in 2025. IQOS' outstanding results continued with over 21% full year growth in both shipment volumes and in-market sales, excluding Russia and Ukraine.

2022 年，PMI 連續第二年實現總銷量增長，反映出 IQOS 的持續進步和捲菸銷量大體穩定。全年無菸淨收入幾乎佔 PMI 總收入的 1/3，在 70 個市場中超過 50%。這是實現我們在 2025 年成為一家淨收入占主導地位的無菸公司的雄心的令人矚目的進展。IQOS 的出色業績繼續保持，全年出貨量和市場銷售（不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭）增長超過 21%。

This reflects broad-based momentum in the European Union region, Japan and emerging markets. IQOS ILUMA continues to generate excellent growth in its launch to market with upgrades from existing users and new user acquisition outperforming our initial expectations. The success is supported by the increasing deployment of a 2-tier heated tobacco units portfolio, providing adult smokers with an expanding range of innovative and highly -- and high-quality alternatives to cigarettes.

這反映了歐盟地區、日本和新興市場的廣泛勢頭。 IQOS ILUMA 在其上市過程中繼續取得出色的增長，現有用戶的升級和新用戶的獲取超出了我們最初的預期。 2 層加熱煙草裝置產品組合的部署不斷增加，為成年吸煙者提供了範圍不斷擴大的創新和高品質的香煙替代品，為成功提供了支持。

In combustibles, we delivered a robust performance with a 3.7% growth in organic net revenues and 0.3 percentage points higher share of segment, excluding Russia and Ukraine, despite the impact of adult smokers moving to smoke-free products. We also achieved 2 critical strategic milestones this year, reaching an agreement to take full control of IQOS in the U.S. in 2024 and successfully completing the acquisition of Swedish Match.

在可燃物方面，我們表現強勁，有機淨收入增長 3.7%，在不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭的細分市場份額增加 0.3 個百分點，儘管成年吸煙者轉向無菸產品的影響。我們今年還實現了 2 個關鍵的戰略里程碑，達成協議在 2024 年全面控制美國的 IQOS，並成功完成對瑞典火柴的收購。

These achievements will accelerate our smoke-free journey and further position us to lead the transformation of the wider industry. Clearly, currency headwinds were extremely strong and weighed on our U.S. dollar performance but although volatility remains, I am pleased that they seem to significantly abate in 2023.

這些成就將加速我們的無菸之旅，並進一步使我們能夠引領更廣泛的行業轉型。顯然，貨幣逆風非常強勁，給我們的美元表現帶來壓力，但儘管波動依然存在，但我很高興它們似乎在 2023 年顯著減弱。

Overall, 2022 was a pivotal year, and we look forward with confidence to 2023 and beyond. Let me now take a moment to cover our key strategic priorities for the coming year. With the acquisition of Swedish Match and securing the rights to IQOS in the U.S., we are now a global smoke-free champion. The addition of the world's biggest market and the leading nicotine pouch brands ZYN, alongside IQOS provides us with significant untapped opportunities to further accelerate the growth of smoke-free products.

總體而言，2022 年是關鍵的一年，我們滿懷信心地展望 2023 年及以後。現在讓我花點時間談談我們來年的主要戰略重點。通過收購 Swedish Match 並在美國獲得 IQOS 的權利，我們現在是全球無菸冠軍。世界上最大的市場和領先的尼古丁袋品牌 ZYN 以及 IQOS 的加入為我們提供了進一步加速無菸產品增長的重要未開發機會。

As the strength of our IQOS business continues to grow rapidly, the full global rollout of IQOS ILUMA is a major priority, and we expect to make substantial progress on this in 2023. The success of ILUMA in launch markets so far demonstrates the importance of groundbreaking consumer-centric innovation, and we continue to broaden our portfolio with new science-backed offerings.

隨著我們的 IQOS 業務實力持續快速增長，IQOS ILUMA 的全球全面推出是當務之急，我們預計 2023 年將在這方面取得實質性進展。ILUMA 迄今為止在上市市場的成功證明了開創性的重要性以消費者為中心的創新，我們繼續通過新的科學支持產品來擴大我們的產品組合。

This includes BONDS by IQOS, our latest heat-not-burn device aimed at low and middle-income adult smokers. Pilot city launches in Colombia and the Philippines in the last quarter of last year show encouraging early results, and we intend to take the learnings from these markets before deploying on a wider scale.

這包括 IQOS 的 BONDS，這是我們針對中低收入成年吸煙者的最新加熱不燃燒設備。去年最後一個季度在哥倫比亞和菲律賓推出的試點城市顯示出令人鼓舞的早期成果，我們打算在更廣泛的部署之前從這些市場中吸取經驗教訓。

Following a successful first 3 years of partnership with KT&G, we also recently extended our long-term agreement to commercialize their innovative smoke-free portfolio outside South Korea. I am very pleased to welcome Swedish Match to the PMI family. In particular, the fast-growing potential of ZYN is an incredibly exciting addition to our company. We are focused on supporting the Swedish Match team to continue and accelerate ZYN's outstanding success in the U.S., while also leveraging PMI's commercial capabilities to prepare for international expansion of nicotine pouches.

繼與 KT&G 成功合作 3 年後，我們最近還延長了長期協議，將他們的創新無菸產品組合在韓國境外商業化。我很高興歡迎 Swedish Match 加入 PMI 大家庭。特別是，ZYN 快速增長的潛力對我們公司來說是一個令人難以置信的激動人心的補充。我們專注於支持 Swedish Match 團隊繼續並加速 ZYN 在美國的卓越成功，同時利用 PMI 的商業能力為尼古丁袋的國際擴張做準備。

IQOS and ZYN are premium brands leading the global categories. In the U.S., ZYN is helping American smokers leave cigarettes behind and offers great growth prospects. For IQOS, the world's biggest smoke-free market is a fully untapped opportunity, and our plans are well underway in anticipation of our commercialization in the second quarter of 2024. We will be leveraging the sales and distribution capabilities of Swedish Match and deploying our commercial model, digital engine, organization and infrastructure for a successful roll-out.

IQOS和ZYN是引領全球品類的高端品牌。在美國，ZYN 正在幫助美國吸煙者戒菸，並提供了巨大的增長前景。對於 IQOS，全球最大的無菸市場是一個完全未開發的機會，我們的計劃正在順利進行，預計我們將在 2024 年第二季度實現商業化。我們將利用 Swedish Match 的銷售和分銷能力，並部署我們的商業成功推出的模型、數字引擎、組織和基礎設施。

We continue to expect to file an FDA application for ILUMA in the second half of 2023. Logically, the international expansion of pouches, U.S. IQOS penetration and the replacement of IQOS 3 with ILUMA, entail additional investments this year which combined with inflationary pressure will weigh temporarily on our margins. Indeed, many of the ILUMA related costs are one-off in nature, as Emmanuel will explain shortly.

我們繼續期望在 2023 年下半年向 FDA 提交 ILUMA 申請。從邏輯上講，小袋的國際擴張、美國 IQOS 滲透率以及 IQOS 3 被 ILUMA 取代，今年需要額外投資，再加上通脹壓力，這將影響暫時處於我們的邊緣。事實上，許多與 ILUMA 相關的成本本質上都是一次性的，正如 Emmanuel 稍後將解釋的那樣。

In combustibles, we continue to target a stable category share over time despite the impact of IQOS cannibalization while taking judicious pricing actions. As we have explained previously, maintaining our leadership in combustibles helps us maximize switching to smoke-free products through the connection to adult smokers and the retail trade. In terms of our financials, the strength of our business provides a robust operating cash flow, which we intend to maximize to provide the reinvestment in our smoke-free business, deleveraging and growing dividend.

在可燃物方面，儘管受到 IQOS 蠶食的影響，但我們繼續以穩定的類別份額為目標，同時採取明智的定價行動。正如我們之前解釋的那樣，保持我們在可燃物領域的領先地位有助於我們通過與成年吸煙者和零售業的聯繫最大限度地轉向無菸產品。就我們的財務狀況而言，我們的業務實力提供了強勁的經營現金流，我們打算最大限度地提供對我們的無菸業務的再投資、去槓桿化和不斷增長的股息。

Finally and importantly, shaping tobacco harm reduction by providing better alternatives to smokers and advocating for science-based regulation is critical to accelerate the end of smoking. Harm reduction is also at the core of our transformation as we lead on sustainability to achieve a positive impact.

最後也是重要的是，通過為吸煙者提供更好的替代品和倡導基於科學的監管來減少煙草危害對於加速戒菸至關重要。減少危害也是我們轉型的核心，因為我們引領可持續發展以取得積極影響。

We will be expanding on some of these topics at the CAGNY conference on February 22, and we also plan to host an Investor Day in September this year where we will go into greater detail on our strategies and future vision, particularly with regards to the U.S.

我們將在 2 月 22 日的 CAGNY 會議上擴展其中一些主題，我們還計劃在今年 9 月舉辦投資者日，屆時我們將更詳細地介紹我們的戰略和未來願景，尤其是與美國有關的戰略和未來願景。

Now I will hand it over to Emmanuel to discuss our results in 2023 and outlook in more detail.

現在我將把它交給 Emmanuel 來更詳細地討論我們 2023 年的結果和展望。

Thank you, Jacek. Our business, driven by the strength of our innovative and expanding smoke-free portfolio generated excellent top and bottom line 2022 growth despite a very difficult operating environment and currency headwinds. Our full year net revenues grew organically by plus 7.7%, excluding Russia and Ukraine, and by plus 7.1% for total PMI despite the impact of hyperinflationary accounting in Turkey. This reflects the continued strength of IQOS, accelerating pricing and the recovery of combustibles in many markets against a pandemic affected comparison, notably in H1.

謝謝你，亞采克。儘管經營環境非常困難且貨幣逆風，但我們的業務在我們創新和不斷擴大的無菸產品組合的力量的推動下，在 2022 年實現了出色的收入和利潤增長。儘管受到土耳其惡性通貨膨脹會計的影響，我們全年淨收入有機增長 7.7%，不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭，總 PMI 增長 7.1%。這反映出 IQOS 的持續走強、定價的加速以及可燃物在許多市場的複蘇，以應對受大流行影響的比較，尤其是在上半年。

IQOS devices accounted for approximately 5% of our full year smoke-free net revenues, both including and excluding Russia and Ukraine. Our net revenue per unit grew plus 4.4% organically, excluding Russia and Ukraine, and by plus 5.5% in total. This was driven by combustible pricing of plus 4%, excluding Russia and Ukraine, and plus 5% overall and the positive mix impact of an increasing proportion of HTUs, heated tobacco unit in our overall volumes at higher net revenue per unit.

IQOS 設備約占我們全年無菸淨收入的 5%，包括但不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭。我們的每單位淨收入有機增長 4.4%，不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭，總計增長 5.5%。這是由於可燃物定價上漲 4%，不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭，整體上漲 5%，以及 HTU 比例增加的積極組合影響，加熱煙草單位在我們總銷量中的單位淨收入更高。

Our 2022 operating income margin contracted organically by 60 basis points, excluding Russia and Ukraine and by 70 basis points in total due to a number of headwinds, which I will come back to. These headwinds were partially mitigated by the growth of IQOS, pricing and ongoing cost savings. In 2022, we delivered gross savings of $800 million with over $1.6 billion in the first 2 years of our cost efficiency program. This puts us well on track to exceed our target of $2 billion over 2021, 2023 and mitigate recent inflationary pressures. Despite margin pressures, our excellent top line growth and diligent cost management enabled us to deliver currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth of plus 11.9% to $5.34, excluding Russia and Ukraine.

我們 2022 年的營業收入利潤率有機收縮 60 個基點，不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭，由於一些不利因素，總共收縮 70 個基點，我將回過頭來。 IQOS 的增長、定價和持續的成本節約部分緩解了這些不利因素。 2022 年，我們在成本效率計劃的前 2 年實現了 8 億美元的總節省，其中超過 16 億美元。這使我們有望在 2021 年和 2023 年超過 20 億美元的目標，並減輕近期的通脹壓力。儘管存在利潤壓力，但我們出色的收入增長和勤奮的成本管理使我們能夠實現貨幣中性調整後攤薄每股收益增長 11.9% 至 5.34 美元，不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭。

This includes unfavorable currency of $0.85 and a small contribution from Swedish Match net of financing costs for the 50 days of consolidated results. For total PMI, we delivered adjusted diluted EPS of $5.98. We also had a strong finish to the year. We delivered excellent Q4 organic net revenue growth of plus 7.9% excluding Russia and Ukraine, again, reflecting continued strong IQOS performance and robust combustible pricing.

這包括 0.85 美元的不利貨幣和 Swedish Match 扣除 50 天合併結果的融資成本後的小額貢獻。對於總 PMI，我們交付了 5.98 美元的調整後攤薄每股收益。我們也以強勁的成績結束了這一年。我們在不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭的情況下實現了出色的第四季度有機淨收入增長 7.9%，再次反映出持續強勁的 IQOS 性能和強勁的可燃物定價。

Our Q4 operating income margin expanded organically by 80 basis points, excluding Russia and Ukraine, mainly due to a favorable comparison. On a total PMI basis, organic margins were flat, including the impact of a challenging comparison in Ukraine and shipment timing in Russia. Fourth quarter currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS grew by plus 20.8% to $1.23, excluding Russia and Ukraine, and plus 15.3% in total to $1.39, an excellent performance.

我們的第四季度營業利潤率有機增長了 80 個基點，不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭，這主要是由於比較有利。在總 PMI 的基礎上，有機利潤率持平，包括烏克蘭具有挑戰性的比較和俄羅斯的裝運時間的影響。第四季度貨幣中性調整後攤薄每股收益增長 20.8% 至 1.23 美元（不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭），總計增長 15.3% 至 1.39 美元，表現出色。

Before discussing our 2023 guidance, I would like to provide an update on our Ukraine and Russia businesses. We continue to support our employees in Ukraine. I would like to personally thank them for their tremendous efforts to secure our business continuity during these extremely difficult times.

在討論我們的 2023 年指南之前，我想介紹一下我們烏克蘭和俄羅斯業務的最新情況。我們繼續支持我們在烏克蘭的員工。我要親自感謝他們在這些極其困難的時期為確保我們的業務連續性所做的巨大努力。

In Russia, the environment for divestment has become increasingly challenging and complex, especially given recent December 2022 regulatory developments. To provide more clarity to investors on the full extent of our business, we will now include both Ukraine and Russia in our 2023 outlook and reporting.

在俄羅斯，撤資環境變得越來越具有挑戰性和復雜性，尤其是考慮到最近 2022 年 12 月的監管發展。為了讓投資者更清楚地了解我們業務的全部範圍，我們現在將烏克蘭和俄羅斯納入我們的 2023 年展望和報告。

Now turning to the 2023 outlook. We expect to deliver very strong organic net revenue growth of plus 7% to plus 8.5%, supported by a step-up in combustible pricing and another year of rapid progress from IQOS. This would represent the third consecutive year of organic top line growth above plus 7% and excludes the impact of Swedish Match for the large majority of the year. Including Swedish Match, we expect our reported currency-neutral net revenues to grow into the teens as its business continued to deliver strong performance.

現在轉向 2023 年展望。我們預計將實現非常強勁的有機淨收入增長，增長 7% 至 8.5%，這得益於可燃物價格的上漲和 IQOS 又一年的快速發展。這將是連續第三年有機收入增長超過 7%，並且不包括瑞典火柴在今年大部分時間的影響。包括 Swedish Match 在內，我們預計我們報告的貨幣中性淨收入將增長至十幾歲，因為其業務繼續表現強勁。

We expect excellent IQOS momentum to increase our HTU volume growth on a total PMI basis, supported by the growing presence of ILUMA across our key markets. We forecast between 125 billion and 130 billion HTU shipment volumes, representing plus 15% to plus 19% growth. This reflect an acceleration compared to the total PMI growth rate in 2022 despite an expectation of no significant progress in Russia, given our decision to restrict investment and innovation.

我們預計 IQOS 的良好勢頭將在總 PMI 的基礎上增加我們的 HTU 銷量增長，這得益於 ILUMA 在我們主要市場的不斷增長。我們預測 HTU 出貨量在 1250 億到 1300 億之間，增長 15% 到 19%。這反映了與 2022 年 PMI 總增長率相比的加速，儘管鑑於我們決定限制投資和創新，預計俄羅斯不會取得重大進展。

As mentioned previously, the pace of ILUMA launches has also been constrained by supply chain disruption and the outstanding take-up in initial launch markets. We expect these constraints to gradually improve through the first half as we progressively roll out to more geographies. We expect organic smoke-free net revenue growth to have an aligned progression with the rate of HTU volume growth this year with less distortion from device revenues.

如前所述，ILUMA 的發布速度也受到供應鏈中斷和初始發布市場的出色接受度的限制。隨著我們逐步推廣到更多地區，我們預計這些限制會在上半年逐漸改善。我們預計有機無菸淨收入增長將與今年 HTU 銷量增長率保持一致，並且設備收入的扭曲較小。

Including Swedish Match and at constant currency, we expect to deliver around $13.5 billion in smoke-free net revenues compared to $10 billion in 2022, and to approach 40% of total PMI net revenues this year. While our top line outlook is very strong, like many other global companies, we are facing significant margin pressures from the intensifying inflationary environment in addition to a number of specific transitory factors and investments, which I will come back to shortly.

包括瑞典火柴在內，按固定匯率計算，我們預計將實現約 135 億美元的無菸淨收入，而 2022 年為 100 億美元，並接近今年 PMI 淨收入總額的 40%。雖然我們的收入前景非常強勁，但與許多其他全球公司一樣，除了一些具體的暫時性因素和投資外，我們還面臨著來自不斷加劇的通貨膨脹環境的巨大利潤壓力，我將很快回過頭來。

As a result, we expect our adjusted operating income margin to contract between 50 to 150 basis points organically. Accordingly, we forecast currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth of plus 7% to plus 9%. This includes a full year's positive contribution from Swedish Match net of the related interest expense.

因此，我們預計調整後的營業利潤率將有機收縮 50 至 150 個基點。因此，我們預測貨幣中性調整後攤薄每股收益增長 7% 至 9%。這包括 Swedish Match 扣除相關利息費用後全年的積極貢獻。

However, this benefit is offset by the increased interest cost on our non-Swedish Match debt and planned investments. This translates into an adjusted diluted EPS range of $6.25 to $6.37, including $0.15 of unfavorable currency at prevailing rates. This forecast notably does not factor any potential favorable court ruling in Germany regarding the legality of the surcharge on the existing excise tax on heated tobacco products effective in Germany as of 2022.

然而，這一收益被我們的非瑞典匹配債務和計劃投資的利息成本增加所抵消。這意味著調整後的攤薄每股收益範圍為 6.25 美元至 6.37 美元，包括按現行匯率計算的 0.15 美元不利貨幣。值得注意的是，這一預測並未考慮德國法院關於自 2022 年起在德國生效的對加熱煙草產品徵收的現有消費稅附加費的合法性的任何潛在有利裁決。

We continue to account for the excise surcharge in our results and outlook. However, the obligation to pay the surcharge is currently suspended. If favorable, the difference to our forecasted 2023 excise payment would increase our net revenue by around 1% and adjusted diluted EPS growth by around 3 points, thereby increasing our forecast currency-neutral growth range to plus 10% to plus 12%. In this scenario, we would expect our operating cash flow will move towards the upper half of our forecast range. We expect a judgment towards the end of the year. There are a number of other assumptions underpinning our outlook.

我們繼續在我們的結果和展望中考慮消費稅附加費。但是，支付附加費的義務目前已暫停。如果有利的話，與我們預測的 2023 年消費稅支付的差異將使我們的淨收入增加約 1%，並將調整後的攤薄每股收益增長約 3 個百分點，從而將我們預測的貨幣中性增長范圍增加到正 10% 至正 12%。在這種情況下，我們預計我們的經營現金流量將向我們預測範圍的上半部分移動。我們預計將在年底作出判決。還有許多其他假設支持我們的前景。

We expect total international industry volume of cigarettes and heated tobacco units, excluding China and the U.S. to decline by minus 1% to minus 2%. Given our leadership in smoke-free products and the growth of the category, we expect to gain share and target total PMI shipment volume to be flat to plus 1%, which would represent a third consecutive year of growth. While we seek to maintain our share of the combustible category, given the current inflationary environment, we assume combustible pricing will accelerate to around plus 6% on an organic basis compared to the plus 5% realized in 2022.

我們預計，不包括中國和美國的捲煙和加熱煙草單位的國際工業總量將下降負 1% 至負 2%。鑑於我們在無菸產品領域的領先地位和該類別的增長，我們預計將獲得份額並將 PMI 總出貨量目標持平至正 1%，這將是連續第三年增長。雖然我們尋求保持我們在可燃物類別中的份額，但考慮到當前的通脹環境，我們假設可燃物價格將在有機基礎上加速至 6% 左右，而 2022 年實現的增幅為 5%。

We also expect full year capital expenditure of around $1.3 billion as compared to $1.1 billion in 2022, reflecting increased investment behind our smoke-free platform, including ILUMA and Swedish Match portfolio. Let me now come back to the various factors impacting our margins.

我們還預計全年資本支出約為 13 億美元，而 2022 年為 11 億美元，這反映出我們無菸平台（包括 ILUMA 和 Swedish Match 產品組合）背後的投資有所增加。現在讓我回到影響我們利潤率的各種因素。

In 2022, total PMI gross margin contracted by 220 basis points organically. While growing inflationary pressures were a drag, the largest impact came from the combination of the rapid growth of ILUMA and transitory factors such as supply chain disruption and the need to use air freight. ILUMA drove accelerated device replacement from existing users in Japan and other launch markets.

2022 年，PMI 總毛利率有機收縮 220 個基點。雖然不斷增長的通脹壓力是一個拖累，但最大的影響來自 ILUMA 的快速增長以及供應鏈中斷和使用空運的需要等暫時性因素的結合。 ILUMA 推動了日本和其他發布市場現有用戶的設備更換加速。

Such device sales are positive for acquisition, retention and full conversion. However, devices are margin dilutive, and this dynamic is likely to continue on a temporary basis as we roll out to more markets this year and consumers upgrade from IQOS blade. The initially higher weight and cost of ILUMA consumable also played a role. And this meant that the overall impact of heat-not-burn business, including devices, was margin dilutive in 2022.

此類設備銷售有利於獲取、保留和完全轉換。然而，設備會稀釋利潤，隨著我們今年向更多市場推出以及消費者從 IQOS blade 升級，這種動態可能會暫時持續。 ILUMA 耗材最初較高的重量和成本也起到了一定作用。這意味著加熱不燃燒業務（包括設備）的總體影響在 2022 年會稀釋利潤。

Importantly, average gross margin on HTUs remain around 10 percentage points higher than for cigarettes on a higher net revenue per unit. This is a fundamental long-term positive margin driver through the growing HTU volume mix in our business. And this had a plus 110 basis point favorable impact in 2022. Our 2 other key long-term margin drivers of pricing and productivity also continued to contribute favorably.

重要的是，由於單位淨收入更高，HTU 的平均毛利率仍然比捲菸高 10 個百分點左右。通過我們業務中不斷增長的 HTU 數量組合，這是一個基本的長期積極利潤率驅動因素。這在 2022 年產生了 110 個基點的有利影響。我們另外 2 個關鍵的定價和生產力長期利潤率驅動因素也繼續做出有利貢獻。

Gross margin headwinds were mitigated at the operating income margin level by SG&A costs, which declined by 150 basis points of net revenues due primarily to cost efficiencies, operating leverage and comparison effect. The picture for 2023 is quite different, while our gross margin will face increased inflationary pressure.

SG&A 成本在營業收入利潤率水平上緩解了毛利率不利因素，主要由於成本效率、經營槓桿和比較效應，淨收入下降了 150 個基點。 2023 年的情況完全不同，而我們的毛利率將面臨更大的通脹壓力。

This is now primarily due to COGS for the cigarette business as leaf, asset tow, salaries and energy cost increase. An acceleration in combustible pricing and lower air freight costs will serve to mitigate this exceptional inflation. However, a time lag is built into our projections. Importantly, while cost inflation is also a headwind for IQOS, the 2023 margin impact of our heat-not-burn business is expected to be favorable due to the positive impact of increased HTU volume at higher net revenue per unit, planned ILUMA efficiency and a more measured increase in device volumes.

現在這主要是由於捲菸業務的銷貨成本，如菸葉、資產拖曳、工資和能源成本增加。可燃物定價的加速和空運成本的降低將有助於緩解這種異常的通貨膨脹。然而，我們的預測存在時間滯後。重要的是，雖然成本上漲也是 IQOS 的不利因素，但由於 HTU 數量增加、單位淨收入增加、計劃的 ILUMA 效率和設備體積的更多測量增加。

Overall, this underlying strength from IQOS combined with pricing will not be sufficient to offset combustible cost inflation in 2023. However, we expect a lower organic gross margin decline compared to last year. And for our heat-not-burn business to have an increasingly visible positive impact as we approach 2024.

總體而言，IQOS 的這種潛在優勢加上定價不足以抵消 2023 年的可燃成本通脹。但是，我們預計有機毛利率下降幅度低於去年。隨著 2024 年的臨近，我們的加熱不燃燒業務將產生越來越明顯的積極影響。

2023 SG&A costs will include incremental investment to drive future growth, including the commercialization of ILUMA. Also included is around $150 million with a broadly even split between the U.S., where we are preparing our organization capability for the launch of IQOS and wellness and healthcare investment in product development and clinical trials.

2023 年的 SG&A 成本將包括推動未來增長的增量投資，包括 ILUMA 的商業化。還包括大約 1.5 億美元，在美國之間大致平分，我們正在為 IQOS 的推出和健康和醫療保健投資準備我們的組織能力，用於產品開發和臨床試驗。

In addition to inflation, this means an SG&A cost increase more in line with net revenue growth is likely with limited margin impact. A few words now on 2023 phasing. We expect margin pressures to be weighted to the first half, particularly given the challenging Q1 2022 comparison, a progressive decrease in air freight costs throughout the year. In addition, investments are expected to be front-loaded, and we know that the rollout of ILUMA can lead to a short period of slower user acquisition as consumers wait for the launch.

除了通貨膨脹之外，這意味著 SG&A 成本的增加可能更符合淨收入增長，而對利潤率的影響可能有限。現在就 2023 年分階段說幾句話。我們預計利潤率壓力將集中在上半年，特別是考慮到 2022 年第一季度比較具有挑戰性，全年空運成本逐漸下降。此外，預計投資將提前完成，我們知道 ILUMA 的推出可能會導致消費者在等待發佈時短期內用戶獲取速度變慢。

Combined with the timing of shipment and cost savings, we expect our 2023 top and bottom line delivery to be heavily H2 weighted. Indeed, we expect the first quarter to be the most challenging with low single-digit organic top line growth and soft margin. Shipment timing and ILUMA launch impact are expected to be pronounced, and we accordingly expect HTU shipment volume of around 26 billion to 28 billion HTUs. We also face a comparison with a significantly lower impact from war related disruption.

結合發貨時間和成本節約，我們預計我們 2023 年的頂線和底線交付將在下半年佔很大比重。事實上，我們預計第一季度將是最具挑戰性的，有機收入增長率較低且利潤率較低。預計出貨時間和 ILUMA 發布影響將很明顯，因此我們預計 HTU 出貨量約為 260 億至 280 億 HTU。我們還面臨與戰爭相關中斷的影響顯著降低的比較。

We forecast adjusted diluted EPS of $1.28 to $1.33, including $0.10 of unfavorable currency at prevailing rates. Importantly, we expect margin to improve as we approach 2024 as headwinds relent and the fundamental margin accretive driver of our smoke-free transformation continue in the form of heated-tobacco unit growth, pricing and cost optimization on ILUMA.

我們預測調整後的攤薄每股收益為 1.28 美元至 1.33 美元，包括按現行匯率計算的 0.10 美元不利貨幣。重要的是，我們預計隨著 2024 年的臨近，利潤率將有所提高，因為阻力減弱，我們無菸轉型的基本利潤率增長驅動力繼續以 ILUMA 的加熱煙草單位增長、定價和成本優化的形式出現。

Our cash flow generation remains strong. We delivered $10.8 billion in 2022 operating cash flows, representing plus 3% growth on a currency-neutral basis. This includes the favorable timing of certain financing items of around $0.3 billion. Given nonrecurring item and working capital movement benefited 2021 by around $1 billion, this was an excellent result.

我們的現金流產生仍然強勁。我們在 2022 年實現了 108 億美元的運營現金流，在貨幣中性基礎上增長了 3%。這包括某些約 3 億美元融資項目的有利時機。鑑於非經常性項目和營運資金流動使 2021 年受益約 10 億美元，這是一個很好的結果。

In 2023, we forecast $10 billion to $11 billion in operating cash flow despite a notable expected impact from higher working capital requirements due to growth, global inflation and the reversal of one-off timing benefits. This put us on track to deliver our '21/'23 targets of around $35 billion given in February 2021 at then prevailing rates. While our net debt is 2.9x adjusted EBITDA on a 12-month trailing basis, this reflects only 50 days of Swedish Match results, including a full year contribution for Swedish Match would clearly result in a lower ratio.

到 2023 年，我們預計運營現金流將達到 100 億美元至 110 億美元，儘管增長、全球通脹和一次性時間收益的逆轉會導致更高的營運資本要求產生顯著影響。這使我們有望按當時的現行匯率實現我們在 2021 年 2 月設定的約 350 億美元的 '21/'23 目標。雖然我們的淨債務是調整後 EBITDA 的 2.9 倍，基於 12 個月的跟踪基礎，但這僅反映了 50 天的瑞典火柴結果，包括對瑞典火柴的全年貢獻顯然會導致較低的比率。

We target robust EBITDA growth, which combined with strong cash flow allows us to focus on deleveraging while continuing to invest in innovation and the growth of our business. In addition, our commitment to our progressive dividend policy is unwavering and in line with our long-term commitment to return cash to shareholders.

我們的目標是強勁的 EBITDA 增長，這與強勁的現金流相結合，使我們能夠專注於去槓桿化，同時繼續投資於創新和業務增長。此外，我們對漸進式股息政策的承諾是堅定不移的，並且符合我們向股東返還現金的長期承諾。

Turning back to our 2022 results. Both our HTU and in-market sales volume increased by around 21.5%, supporting total volume growth of plus 3.2%, excluding Russia and Ukraine. Q4 HTU shipment volume grew by plus 37.5%, partly reflecting the replenishment of inventory for ILUMA in Japan following lower shipments earlier in the year and favorable shipment timing in the EU, notably in advance of new ILUMA launches.

回到我們 2022 年的結果。我們的 HTU 和市場銷量均增長了約 21.5%，支持總銷量增長 3.2%，不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭。第 4 季度 HTU 出貨量增長了 37.5%，部分反映了 ILUMA 在今年早些時候出貨量下降和歐盟有利的出貨時間之後對日本 ILUMA 庫存的補充，特別是在新 ILUMA 推出之前。

Supported by very solid cigarette performance, we delivered total volume growth for the second consecutive year, both including and excluding Russia and Ukraine. Focusing now on combustibles. Our portfolio delivered robust organic net revenue growth of plus 3.7% for the full year, excluding Russia and Ukraine. Combustible pricing increased in H2 as we continue to adjust to the inflationary environment.

在非常穩健的捲煙業績的支持下，我們連續第二年實現總銷量增長，包括但不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭。現在專注於可燃物。我們的投資組合實現了強勁的全年有機淨收入增長 3.7%，不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭。隨著我們繼續適應通脹環境，下半年可燃物價格上漲。

This resulted in Q4 organic pricing of plus 4.8%, excluding Russia and Ukraine, and yielded full year pricing in line with our expectation with notable contribution from Germany, the Philippines and Turkey, despite the impact of hyperinflationary accounting. In 2022, our share of the cigarette category increased by plus 0.3 percentage points, excluding Russia and Ukraine, following category share declines in 2020 and 2021, exacerbated by the pandemic. This includes sequential growth in every quarter of 2022.

這導致第 4 季度有機定價上漲 4.8%，不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭，全年定價符合我們的預期，儘管受到惡性通貨膨脹會計的影響，德國、菲律賓和土耳其的貢獻顯著。 2022 年，我們在捲菸類別中的份額增加了 0.3 個百分點，不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭，此前類別份額在 2020 年和 2021 年有所下降，大流行加劇了這種下降。這包括 2022 年每個季度的連續增長。

Marlboro remains extremely resilient despite pressure on disposable income and the impact of IQOS cannibalization with plus 0.2 percentage point share of segment growth. In addition, while we have not yet seen any meaningful acceleration in down trading, our share in the low-price segment increased by plus 0.6 percentage points, excluding Russia and Ukraine.

儘管可支配收入面臨壓力以及 IQOS 蠶食的影響，萬寶路在細分市場增長中的份額增加了 0.2 個百分點，但仍然極具彈性。此外，雖然我們還沒有看到任何明顯的下跌交易加速，但我們在低價市場的份額增加了 0.6 個百分點，不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭。

As Jacek mentioned earlier, maintaining our leadership in the cigarette category is a key enabler in accelerating smokers switching to better alternatives. Our robust cigarette share, combined with the growth of IQOS delivered an overall market share gain of plus 0.6 points in 2022, excluding Russia and Ukraine, with notable contribution from Egypt, Italy, Japan and Poland.

正如 Jacek 之前提到的，保持我們在香菸類別中的領先地位是加速吸煙者轉向更好的替代品的關鍵推動因素。我們強勁的捲煙份額，加上 IQOS 的增長，在 2022 年使整體市場份額增加了 0.6 個百分點，不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭，埃及、意大利、日本和波蘭的貢獻顯著。

PMI heated tobacco unit continued to strengthen their position towards becoming the largest nicotine brand in markets where IQOS is present, and reached the #2 position in 2022 with a record high share of 8.5% in Q4. Now focusing on IQOS user growth. There were an estimated 20.3 million IQOS users as of December 31, excluding Russia and Ukraine. This reflects growth of around plus 3.5 million for the full year.

PMI 加熱煙草部門繼續鞏固其在 IQOS 市場中成為最大尼古丁品牌的地位，並在 2022 年第四季度以 8.5% 的歷史最高份額排名第二。現在專注於 IQOS 用戶增長。截至 12 月 31 日，估計有 2030 萬 IQOS 用戶，不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭。這反映出全年增長約 350 萬。

For total PMI, we estimate there were almost 25 million IQOS users as of year end. Consistent with comments in our recent disclosure, user growth in October and November was slower due to higher-than-expected impact from reduced commercial activity and lower acquisition for IQOS blade product in anticipation of the launch of ILUMA in certain key markets.

對於總 PMI，我們估計截至年底有近 2500 萬 IQOS 用戶。與我們最近披露的評論一致，10 月和 11 月的用戶增長放緩，原因是商業活動減少的影響高於預期，以及 IQOS 刀片產品因預期 ILUMA 將在某些主要市場推出而導致的採購量減少。

However, we saw a strong rebound in December as ILUMA launches continued, delivering robust user growth of plus $0.8 million for the quarter. This was actually close to our initial expectation, and we look forward with confidence to 2023 as ILUMA continues to be deployed. ILUMA is driving volume and share growth across its markets, supporting our strong position in the heat-not-burn category.

然而，隨著 ILUMA 繼續推出，我們在 12 月看到了強勁反彈，本季度用戶增長強勁，增加了 80 萬美元。這實際上接近我們最初的預期，隨著 ILUMA 的繼續部署，我們充滿信心地期待 2023 年。 ILUMA 正在推動其市場的銷量和份額增長，支持我們在加熱不燃燒類別中的強勢地位。

We launched in 8 new markets in Q4, including the Czech Republic, Italy, Portugal and South Korea, bringing the total to 16 market with ILUMA launch now represents more than half of our total HTU volumes. ILUMA delivers a superior consumer experience as evidenced by Net Promoter Scores, which on average increased by more than 10 points across its different market architects and higher conversion rate compared to IQOS 3 DUO. while the rate of acceleration differ by market, in both Switzerland and the more recently launched United Arab Emirates, offtake share has almost doubled since launch.

我們在第四季度推出了 8 個新市場，包括捷克共和國、意大利、葡萄牙和韓國，使總數達到 16 個市場，ILUMA 的推出現在占我們 HTU 總銷量的一半以上。 ILUMA 提供了卓越的消費者體驗，淨推薦值證明了這一點，與 IQOS 3 DUO 相比，不同市場架構師的淨推薦值平均增加了 10 多分，轉化率更高。儘管加速速度因市場而異，但在瑞士和最近推出的阿拉伯聯合酋長國，承購份額自推出以來幾乎翻了一番。

Importantly, as I mentioned earlier, the benefit of scale and optimization should allow us to bring down the cost of ILUMA over time, starting in the second half of 2023. Focusing now on the European Union, where smoke-free net revenue exceeded 40% of the region for the full year. Our fourth quarter HTU share increased by plus 2.4 points to reach 8.8% of total cigarette and HTU industry volume with a modest flattering effect from timing factors. IMS volume continued to grow sequentially and reached a record high of 9.3 billion units on the 4-quarter moving average. This reflects success across many markets and key cities, including Vilnius with over 43% share as well as Athens and Rome with over 25%.

重要的是，正如我之前提到的，從 2023 年下半年開始，規模和優化的好處應該使我們能夠隨著時間的推移降低 ILUMA 的成本。現在關注歐盟，那裡的無菸淨收入超過 40%該地區的全年。我們第四季度的 HTU 份額增加了 2.4 個百分點，達到捲菸和 HTU 行業總銷量的 8.8%，時間因素帶來了適度的討人喜歡的效果。 IMS 數量繼續環比增長，並在第 4 季度移動平均數上達到 93 億台的歷史新高。這反映出許多市場和主要城市的成功，包括維爾紐斯超過 43% 的份額以及雅典和羅馬超過 25% 的份額。

In Japan, the heat-not-burn category now represents close to 35% of total tobacco with IQOS increasingly driving its growth. In Q4, the adjusted total tobacco share for our HTU brands increased by plus 2.6 points to 24.5% with offtake share in Tokyo, surpassing 30%. Our 2-tier consumable portfolio continued to deliver strong results. IMS again, grew sequentially to reach a record high of 8.8 billion units on the 4-quarter moving average as the number of Japanese IQOS users crossed a remarkable 7.5 million adult consumers.

在日本，加熱不燃燒類別現在佔煙草總量的近 35%，而 IQOS 越來越推動其增長。在第四季度，我們的 HTU 品牌調整後的總煙草份額增加了 2.6 個百分點，達到 24.5%，東京的承購份額超過 30%。我們的 2 層耗材產品組合繼續取得強勁業績。隨著日本 IQOS 用戶數量超過 750 萬成年消費者，IMS 再次連續增長，在第 4 季度移動平均線達到 88 億台的歷史新高。

In addition to strong IQOS gain in developed markets, we continue to see very promising growth in low and middle-income market. In 2022, our HTU shipments grew by almost 50%, excluding Russia and Ukraine. This robust performance reflects success across many markets, including Egypt, where Urban Cairo exit offtake share surpassed 7%, Bulgaria and Malaysia, where Q4 offtake share reached 14% in both capital cities. Let's now move on to Swedish Match, which finished the year strongly, further confirming our belief that this combination will be accretive to our growth and margin profile over the coming years.

除了 IQOS 在發達市場的強勁增長外，我們繼續看到低收入和中等收入市場非常有希望的增長。 2022 年，我們的 HTU 出貨量增長了近 50%，不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭。這種強勁的表現反映出許多市場的成功，包括埃及，開羅城市出口承購份額超過 7%，保加利亞和馬來西亞，這兩個首都城市的第四季度承購份額均達到 14%。現在讓我們繼續討論 Swedish Match，它在今年表現強勁，進一步證實了我們的信念，即這種組合將在未來幾年促進我們的增長和利潤率。

Please note for housekeeping purposes that my comments on Swedish Match's financial results are based on publicly available information through September 30 and from November 11 when it was consolidated in PMI's financial statements. Swedish Match delivered excellent performance following the acquisition with strong net revenue and adjusted operating income. Most impressive was the phenomenal U.S. growth of ZYN, which I will come back to on the next slide.

請注意，出於內部管理目的，我對 Swedish Match 財務業績的評論基於截至 9 月 30 日和 11 月 11 日併入 PMI 財務報表的公開信息。瑞典火柴在收購後表現出色，淨收入和調整後營業收入強勁。最令人印象深刻的是 ZYN 在美國的驚人增長，我將在下一張幻燈片中再次討論。

In other U.S. smoke-free product, moist snuff also performed well, gaining almost 1 percentage point share of segment and growing 2022 volume within a declining category. In Scandinavia, the overall smoke-free market and Swedish Match continued to grow, albeit helped by year-end trade inventory movement ahead of a general excise tax increase in Sweden. The cigar business delivered robust performance to end a challenging year with growth in volume and category share. We are very pleased with the strong 2022 results from Swedish Match, which also included positive pricing across all smoke-free category. We look forward to reporting our combined results going forward.

在其他美國無菸產品中，濕鼻煙也表現出色，在細分市場中獲得近 1 個百分點的份額，並在下降的類別中實現 2022 年銷量增長。在斯堪的納維亞，整體無菸市場和瑞典火柴繼續增長，儘管在瑞典普遍提高消費稅之前年末貿易庫存變動有所幫助。雪茄業務表現強勁，以銷量和類別份額的增長結束了充滿挑戰的一年。我們對 Swedish Match 2022 年的強勁業績感到非常滿意，其中還包括所有無菸類別的積極定價。我們期待著報告我們未來的綜合結果。

Now let's discuss ZYN's recent U.S. performance in more detail. Excellent progress continues with shipment volume growth of plus 37% in 2022 and plus 35% in Q4, reaching a record quarterly high. ZYN's category volume share grew sequentially by 1 percentage point compared to the third quarter and by 2.2 percentage points compared to the prior year further strengthening its position as the clear #1 nicotine pouch brand despite continued heavy competitive discounting from less premium offering.

現在讓我們更詳細地討論ZYN最近在美國的表現。 2022 年出貨量增長 37%，第四季度增長 35%，創下季度新高。 ZYN 的類別銷量份額與第三季度相比連續增長 1 個百分點，與去年同期相比增長 2.2 個百分點，進一步鞏固了其作為明確的第一尼古丁袋品牌的地位，儘管較低的優質產品持續提供具有競爭力的折扣。

Importantly, retail value share for ZYN remained strong at 75.7%, highlighting its premium positioning and high brand equity. 2023 promises to be a very exciting year. We are thrilled to have welcomed Swedish Match's employee and leading overall nicotine portfolio into the PMI family to create a global smoke-free champion, and we will work together to create value as we accelerate toward our shared vision of the smoke-free future.

重要的是，ZYN 的零售價值份額保持在 75.7% 的強勁水平，凸顯了其高端定位和高品牌資產。 2023 年有望成為非常激動人心的一年。我們很高興歡迎 Swedish Match 的員工和領先的整體尼古丁產品組合加入 PMI 大家庭，打造全球無菸冠軍，我們將共同努力創造價值，加速實現我們對無菸未來的共同願景。

In particular, bringing ZYN and IQOS together in both the U.S. and international markets present a significant opportunity to drive accelerated growth and switching of adult smoker to better alternative. As a well-run and successful business, we expect continued strong performance from Swedish Match existing operations.

特別是，將 ZYN 和 IQOS 在美國和國際市場結合在一起，為推動成年吸煙者加速增長和轉向更好的替代品提供了重要機會。作為一家經營良好且成功的企業，我們預計 Swedish Match 現有業務將繼續保持強勁表現。

A key focus this year will be supporting and further driving strong ZYN in the U.S. In addition, we are now preparing for the international expansion of nicotine pouches, leveraging Swedish Match rich product portfolio and PMI's extensive smoke-free commercial infrastructure. In parallel, we will be actively enhancing Swedish Match's U.S. distribution and commercial capabilities for the launch of IQOS in 2024.

今年的一個重點將是支持和進一步推動強大的 ZYN 在美國的發展。此外，我們現在正在準備尼古丁袋的國際擴張，利用 Swedish Match 豐富的產品組合和 PMI 廣泛的無菸商業基礎設施。與此同時，我們將積極增強 Swedish Match 在美國的分銷和商業能力，以便在 2024 年推出 IQOS。

Moving now to sustainability. As we transform our company, our business and sustainability strategies are advancing and in end with increasing momentum. PMI and Swedish Match have a shared vision and ads. The combination helps us further accelerate towards achieving our purpose, transforming for good to make cigarette obsolete and maximize the benefit of smoke-free products.

現在轉向可持續性。隨著我們對公司進行轉型，我們的業務和可持續發展戰略正在推進並最終以越來越大的勢頭結束。 PMI 和 Swedish Match 有共同的願景和廣告。這種結合有助於我們進一步加速實現我們的目標，徹底轉型以淘汰香煙並最大限度地發揮無菸產品的優勢。

Our goal for best-in-class ESG performance is aligned as we seek to address the environmental act of our product, eradicate child labor, reduce our carbon footprint and provide a more inclusive and empowered working environment for all our employees. In December, we published a standalone report detailing our new biodiversity and water ambitions.

我們追求一流 ESG 績效的目標是一致的，因為我們尋求解決我們產品的環境行為、消除童工、減少我們的碳足跡並為我們所有員工提供一個更具包容性和授權的工作環境。 12 月，我們發布了一份獨立報告，詳細介紹了我們新的生物多樣性和水資源雄心。

For biodiversity, we aim to achieve no net loss on ecosystem connected to our value chain by 2033, and contribute towards a net positive impact on nature by 2050. For water stewardship, we aim to scale solutions towards the positive impact on water resources by 2033, and contributes towards a positive impact on water resources by 2050. I am also proud to share that for the third consecutive year, we have been awarded CDP's 'Tripple A'. CDP scored nearly 15,000 companies on their climate change, forest and water security disclosures, of which only 12 received this prestigious score. In addition, I am excited to share that we are included in the 2023 Bloomberg Gender Equality Index for the third year running.

對於生物多樣性，我們的目標是到 2033 年實現與我們價值鏈相關的生態系統無淨損失，到 2050 年為對自然產生淨積極影響做出貢獻。對於水資源管理，我們的目標是到 2033 年擴大解決方案以對水資源產生積極影響，並為到 2050 年對水資源產生積極影響做出貢獻。我也很自豪地與大家分享，我們連續第三年獲得 CDP 的“三 A”稱號。 CDP 對近 15,000 家公司的氣候變化、森林和水安全披露進行了評分，其中只有 12 家獲得了這一著名的分數。此外，我很高興地宣布，我們連續第三年被列入 2023 年彭博性別平等指數。

I'll now turn it back to Jacek for concluding remarks.

現在我將把它轉回給 Jacek 作總結髮言。

Thank you, Emmanuel. Overall, our business delivered both a strong fourth quarter and full year performance despite many challenging headwinds. We achieved excellent top and bottom line growth with double-digit currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth and almost $6 of adjusted EPS for total PMI.

謝謝你，伊曼紐爾。總體而言，儘管面臨許多具有挑戰性的不利因素，但我們的業務在第四季度和全年都取得了強勁的業績。我們實現了出色的收入和利潤增長，兩位數的貨幣中性調整後攤薄每股收益增長和總 PMI 調整後每股收益近 6 美元。

The consistent quality and sustainability of our organic top and bottom line delivery has been clearly demonstrated over the last 3 years. Most impressive was the continued outstanding performance of IQOS, which is now complemented by the remarkable growth of ZYN. Combined with Swedish Match, we have a comprehensive global smoke-free portfolio with leadership positions in heat-not-burn and the fastest-growing category of overall nicotine. We expect 2023 to be a landmark year for our smoke-free transformation with smoke-free net revenues of around $13.5 billion at constant currency, approaching 40% of our company.

在過去的 3 年中，我們清楚地證明了我們有機頂線和底線交付的一貫質量和可持續性。最令人印象深刻的是 IQOS 的持續出色表現，現在與 ZYN 的顯著增長相輔相成。結合 Swedish Match，我們擁有全面的全球無菸產品組合，在加熱不燃燒和增長最快的整體尼古丁類別中處於領先地位。我們預計 2023 年將是我們無菸轉型具有里程碑意義的一年，按固定匯率計算，無菸淨收入約為 135 億美元，接近我們公司的 40%。

We have exciting opportunities for growing nicotine pouches in the U.S. and internationally, along with the U.S. commercialization of IQOS next year. We expect margin headwinds will persist in 2023 before improving in 2024. However, our underlying growth fundamentals remain strong, and we look forward with -- and we look forward with confidence. With an excellent performance over the past 2 years and our strong 2023 outlook, we expect to comfortably exceed our 3-year minimum CAGR targets of more than 5% organic net revenue growth, more than 9% in currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth and broadly stable shipment volumes.

隨著明年美國 IQOS 的商業化，我們有機會在美國和國際上種植尼古丁袋。我們預計利潤率逆風將在 2023 年持續存在，然後在 2024 年有所改善。但是，我們的潛在增長基本面依然強勁，我們期待 - 我們充滿信心地期待。憑藉過去 2 年的出色表現和我們對 2023 年的強勁展望，我們預計將輕鬆超過我們的 3 年最低複合年增長率目標，即有機淨收入增長超過 5%，貨幣中性調整後攤薄每股收益增長超過 9%，以及出貨量大體穩定。

Finally, our strong growth outlook and highly cash generative business enables us to deleverage while maintaining our steadfast commitment to our progressive dividend policy. Thank you for your attention. Emmanuel and I will be happy now to answer your questions.

最後，我們強勁的增長前景和高現金生成業務使我們能夠去槓桿化，同時保持我們對漸進式股息政策的堅定承諾。感謝您的關注。 Emmanuel 和我現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

We'll take our first question from Chris Growe with Stifel.

我們將從 Stifel 的 Chris Growe 那裡回答我們的第一個問題。

I want to ask you, first of all, you gave some great color there and detail in your remarks. As I look at the EPS growth in 2023, just understand some of the burdens on that growth. We know about $150 million of investment you've outlined for the U.S. and your Health and Wellness division. What other costs do you foresee in some of the supply chain costs and use of air freight, for example, how much of those burdening your cost for the year? If you can give some color on that?

我想問你，首先，你在發言中給了一些很好的色彩和細節。當我查看 2023 年的每股收益增長時，只需了解這種增長所帶來的一些負擔。我們知道您為美國和您的健康與保健部門概述了大約 1.5 億美元的投資。在一些供應鏈成本和空運的使用中，您還預見到哪些其他成本，例如，這些成本中有多少會負擔您一年的成本？如果你能給它一些顏色？

Yes. So maybe I start then Emmanuel will chip in, I guess. Yes, it's $150 million between U.S. -- $150 million between the U.S. and the Wellness and Healthcare almost evenly spread between the [2]. Now you have their freight, and this is more of the thing, which I think we should start seeing some improvements in 2023 and especially as we go towards the second half of the year, I think we should start to normalize the use of their freight, which will then obviously continue for the 2024.

是的。所以也許我先開始，然後 Emmanuel 會插手，我想。是的，美國之間是 1.5 億美元——美國與健康和醫療保健之間的 1.5 億美元幾乎平均分佈在 [2] 之間。現在你有他們的運費，這更重要，我認為我們應該在 2023 年開始看到一些改善，尤其是在我們進入下半年時，我認為我們應該開始規範他們的運費使用，這顯然將持續到 2024 年。

Now you have the inflationary pressure on the COGS. I think Emmanuel mentioned in his remarks, the leaf obviously is that -- due to our duration of inventories of the leaf and the way the leaf prices are rolling through the P&L something which lasts usually longer, you have a fear about the duration of inventory. So on a moving average, valuation I mean, it spreads over the period of time. You have energy, which is obviously the big hit across the number of -- directly or indirectly for the materials.

現在您對 COGS 有通脹壓力。我認為 Emmanuel 在他的評論中提到，葉子顯然是 - 由於我們的葉子庫存持續時間以及葉子價格在損益表中滾動的方式通常持續時間更長，你擔心庫存的持續時間.所以在移動平均線，我的意思是估值，它在一段時間內傳播。你有能量，這顯然是對材料的直接或間接影響。

Now we start seeing energy prices easing at least at this stage, but also you bind it by some contractual arrangements, et cetera. So I don't think this is helping at '23, but I remain cautiously optimistic as of '24, we should start seeing reversal of those. Obviously, you have a cost of the IQOS ILUMA roll-out, right? Because we are -- at the year-end, we've been at the 16 markets out of 73 markets, total IQOS.

現在我們開始看到能源價格至少在這個階段開始放鬆，但你也通過一些合同安排等來約束它。所以我不認為這在 23 年有幫助，但我對 24 年保持謹慎樂觀，我們應該開始看到這些逆轉。顯然，你有 IQOS ILUMA 推出的成本，對吧？因為我們——到年底，我們已經進入了 73 個市場中的 16 個市場，全部是 IQOS。

So there is a bulk of the market in front of us in '23, and we don't want to stop or slow down the runout of ILUMA. So obviously, you have a pressure on the margin coming from the extra sales of the devices, right, which obviously are the drag on the margins, and we've essentially accelerating replacement of the devices at the existing consumers level but with a very clear view now that we have a very nice paper going forward with the accelerated acquisition, better consumption or better conversion rates. And that's the key items. Emmanuel, if I miss something important?

因此，23 年我們面前有大量市場，我們不想停止或減緩 ILUMA 的淘汰。很明顯，設備的額外銷售對利潤率造成了壓力，對，這顯然是對利潤率的拖累，我們基本上在現有消費者層面加速了設備的更換，但非常明顯現在看來，我們有一篇非常好的論文，可以加速獲取、更好的消費或更好的轉化率。這是關鍵項目。伊曼紐爾，如果我錯過了什麼重要的事情？

No, I think you are very exhaustive clearly, yes, -- just a couple of further detail. Clearly, in '23, we've been flagging it. We expect our heat-not-burn business to contribute positively at the level of the gross margin rate evolution. So in '23, it's really inflation impacting us very negatively at the level of all cost of goods. But on convertible, we're going to increase price, but it's not going to be sufficient to offset this impact. And just to give you a color, Jacek was alluding to energy prices. We're not talking about even double-digit inflation. I mean, energy price between '23 and '21, we are talking about close to a 3x factor. So it's a big increase with a big impact on the P&L over time with price increase, we're going to overcome that, but there is just a lag, as we said, on matching that.

不，我認為你非常詳盡，是的，只是一些進一步的細節。顯然，在 23 年，我們一直在標記它。我們預計我們的加熱不燃燒業務將在毛利率演變方面做出積極貢獻。所以在 23 年，真正的通貨膨脹在所有商品成本的層面上對我們產生了非常負面的影響。但對於敞篷車，我們將提高價格，但這不足以抵消這種影響。只是為了給你一個顏色，Jacek 暗指能源價格。我們甚至不是在談論兩位數的通貨膨脹。我的意思是，23 年和 21 年之間的能源價格，我們談論的是接近 3 倍的因素。因此，隨著時間的推移，隨著價格的上漲，這是一個很大的增長，對 P&L 產生了很大的影響，我們將克服這一點，但正如我們所說，匹配它只是一個滯後。

Then there is a big difference also on our SG&A cost evolution. In 2022, we were flat because we've been generating a lot of efficiencies. Inflation was not as hard as it's going to be in '23 with a lot of salary increase and probably the basis of comparison were more favorable. In '23, we expect to grow our SG&A in line with top line, more or less, which one would expect. We continue to invest a lot in order to support the growth of the business to acquire new users, digital investment.

然後我們的 SG&A 成本演變也有很大差異。 2022 年，我們持平，因為我們一直在提高效率。通貨膨脹並不像 23 年那樣嚴重，薪水增加很多，而且比較的基礎可能更有利。在 23 年，我們預計我們的 SG&A 或多或少會與人們預期的一致。我們繼續大量投資以支持業務增長以獲取新用戶和數字投資。

We talk about the U.S. and Wellness and Healthcare. And there will still be efficiency but not at the same level. Last element that I have to add the cost of the debt. I'm not talking about the debt of acquisition of Swedish Match because for Swedish Match -- we are in line with expectation, i.e., low single-digit accretion on the EPS. But clearly, for the existing debt, there is also an increase in the cost, and that is having an impact on the evolution of the adjusted EPS. I think with that, Chris, we are giving all the information we can on what we are facing in terms of evolution on our cost.

我們談論美國以及健康和醫療保健。並且仍然會有效率，但不會處於同一水平。我必須添加債務成本的最後一個要素。我不是在談論收購 Swedish Match 的債務，因為對於 Swedish Match——我們符合預期，即 EPS 的低個位數增長。但顯然，對於現有債務，成本也有所增加，這對調整後每股收益的演變產生了影響。我認為，克里斯，我們正在提供我們在成本演變方面所面臨的所有信息。

That was sure exhaustive. It was very helpful. I had just one quick follow-up, which would be that you have heat tobacco unit growth expectation of that 15% to 19%. I just want to get an understanding on 2 (inaudible) of that. Is Russia, Ukraine down likely in 2023, given you're not investing there? And then just to what degree it's capacity limited today, if you had more ILUMA capacity, could that grow even faster?

那肯定是詳盡無遺的。這很有幫助。我只有一個快速跟進，那就是你對加熱煙草單位的增長預期為 15% 到 19%。我只想了解其中的 2 個（聽不清）。鑑於您不在那裡投資，俄羅斯、烏克蘭是否有可能在 2023 年出現下滑？然後，如果您擁有更多的 ILUMA 容量，那麼今天的容量限製到什麼程度，它會增長得更快嗎？

Okay. So actually, the Russia and Ukraine and obviously, Russia due to its way even more. There were a drag on our performance both in '22 and will be -- it's fair to assume it will be a drag in 2023. As you know, is our decisions, strong decisions to they invest and essentially, ILUMA, for example, is the key technology advancements, which will have, which we decided not to roll out in Russia has an impact, right? So the numbers which we now just for the visibility to the investors of the business as is today, we're including Russia and Ukraine, but they both -- very much Russia not contributing to the growth.

好的。所以實際上，俄羅斯和烏克蘭，顯然，俄羅斯的方式更多。我們在 22 年和以後的表現都受到了拖累——可以公平地假設這將是 2023 年的拖累。如您所知，我們的決定是他們投資的強有力的決定，例如，ILUMA 是我們決定不在俄羅斯推出的關鍵技術進步會產生影響，對嗎？因此，我們現在的數字只是為了讓投資者看到今天的業務，我們包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭，但它們都——俄羅斯對增長沒有貢獻。

So one good thing opposite excluding Russia and Ukraine, our growth rates would be at a higher level on a comparable level. Capacity we will -- I think we have -- we are guiding the market that we'll -- we expect the better results in the second half of the year, and that partially reflects the moment when we think we will be beyond the bottom neck with regards to the capacity around ILUMA. So we're already managing the business on a very tight supply chain through steel this year -- sorry, 2022 and for the first half of '23. And the second half of '23, we should be -- we should be okay. That's again -- I can bridge back to the famous air freight, et cetera, because all of these things are consequences of us riding on a very tight supply.

因此，除了俄羅斯和烏克蘭之外，還有一件好事，我們的增長率將處於可比水平的更高水平。我們將 - 我認為我們擁有 - 我們正在引導市場，我們將 - 我們預計下半年會有更好的結果，這部分反映了我們認為我們將超越底部的那一刻頸部關於 ILUMA 周圍的容量。因此，今年我們已經通過鋼鐵在非常緊張的供應鏈上管理業務——抱歉，2022 年和 23 年上半年。而 23 年下半年，我們應該——我們應該沒事。這又是——我可以回到著名的空運等等，因為所有這些都是我們供應非常緊張的結果。

We'll take our next question from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

我們將接受高盛的 Bonnie Herzog 的下一個問題。

I guess my first question is on your op margin guidance and the implied deleverage. Maybe you could break down the headwinds you highlighted just a bit further. And thinking about in the context of what you can control like the investments you're making to drive future growth. Can you help frame that for us? Just trying to think through how big of a step up the investments will be this year versus last year? And then how do we think about the investments required next year and beyond? I guess I'm trying to get a sense of how much of the investment is required to essentially roll out IQOS in the U.S. Will it take place this year versus next year? And I'm well aware of the investments you need to roll out ILUMA,but anything there would be helpful.

我想我的第一個問題是關於您的運營保證金指導和隱含的去槓桿化。也許你可以進一步分解你強調的逆風。並考慮您可以控制的內容，例如您為推動未來增長所做的投資。你能幫我們構圖嗎？只是想想想今年的投資與去年相比會有多大的進步？那麼我們如何考慮明年及以後所需的投資？我想我想了解在美國推出 IQOS 需要多少投資。它會在今年而不是明年進行嗎？我很清楚推出 ILUMA 所需的投資，但任何投資都會有所幫助。

Happy to take that one, Bonnie. So I think in the U.S., we've been clear on the fact that we expect something like half of $150 million. Of course, it's a rounding of extra investment in the U.S. as we prepare the launch of IQOS in the U.S. that is for 2023. When we have a plan for the coming years, and of course, with more detail, we'll, of course, come to you and elaborate and detail that.

很高興接受那個，邦妮。所以我認為在美國，我們已經很清楚我們預計會有 1.5 億美元的一半。當然，這是在美國進行的一輪額外投資，因為我們準備在 2023 年在美國推出 IQOS。當我們為未來幾年制定計劃時，當然還有更多細節，我們將當然，來找你詳細說明。

Now for the rest of the business, I think we are -- and that was the sense of my comment on SG&A evolution. On a relatively regular basis, we are investing an extra few hundred million, and please allow me not to be more specific because, of course, that is sensitive information, behind the acceleration of IQOS, and it's going to come, of course, behind IQOS ILUMA in 2023. So the growth, when we say we expect SG&A to grow broadly in line with top line there is a huge impact of inflation.

現在對於其他業務，我認為我們是——這就是我對 SG&A 演變的評論的意義。在相對定期的基礎上，我們正在額外投資幾億美元，請允許我不要更具體，因為，當然，這是敏感信息，在 IQOS 加速的背後，它會來，當然，在後面IQOS ILUMA 在 2023 年。因此，當我們說我們預計 SG&A 的增長與收入大致一致時，增長會受到通貨膨脹的巨大影響。

I mean, I don't need to explain that inflation is in most countries around high single digit, and we need to reflect that on salary increase. We have efficiency on cost in front of that, and that is enabling us to on top of the inflation impact to keep investing on the growth of the business. And we do that in a rather consistent manner, of course, very much focused behind ILUMA in 2023.

我的意思是，我不需要解釋大多數國家的通貨膨脹率都在高個位數左右，我們需要在加薪上反映出來。在此之前，我們有成本效率，這使我們能夠在通貨膨脹影響之上繼續投資於業務增長。當然，我們以相當一致的方式做到這一點，在 2023 年非常專注於 ILUMA。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just a second question, if I may. It's just related to the user growth in Q4 on IQOS. Could you maybe talk through some of the puts and takes that you saw in the quarter? I mean it seemed to accelerate relative to Q3 despite some of the headwinds you had recently highlighted. And then you did mention that ILUMA drives higher conversion rates than IQOS 3 DUO. So could you possibly quantify that for us? I guess I'm trying to think through when that platform scales, do you expect your overall conversion to grow meaningfully, possibly above your current 70% rate?

好的。這很有幫助。然後是第二個問題，如果可以的話。這只是與 IQOS 上 Q4 的用戶增長有關。您能否談談您在本季度看到的一些看跌期權和看跌期權？我的意思是，儘管您最近強調了一些不利因素，但它似乎相對於第三季度有所加速。然後你確實提到 ILUMA 比 IQOS 3 DUO 驅動更高的轉化率。那麼你能為我們量化一下嗎？我想我正在努力思考當該平台擴展時，您是否期望您的整體轉化率有意義地增長，可能超過您目前的 70%？

Yes. So I maybe take it. ILUMA conversion rates in the markets at this stage (inaudible), run rate conversion rates before the IQOS blade will be somewhere up in the range of 10 percentage points, okay? So obviously, different markets, there is some different fits in the market, but the rule of thumb is about the 10 percentage points, which essentially means the way we measure conversion that 10% of the devices sold through acquisition of new users are in the use and they should -- and they are generating the recurring demand for the consumables.

是的。所以我可能會接受它。現階段市場上的 ILUMA 轉換率（聽不清），IQOS 刀片之前的運行率轉換率將在 10 個百分點的範圍內，好嗎？很明顯，不同的市場，市場有一些不同的契合度，但經驗法則大約是 10 個百分點，這基本上意味著我們衡量轉化率的方式，即通過獲取新用戶銷售的設備中有 10% 在使用並且他們應該使用 - 他們正在產生對消耗品的經常性需求。

So this also has -- there's a better productivity on the user acquisitions and the devices sold. I want to just bridge back to your previous question, Bonnie, if you allow me. When we look at the U.S. investment, we highlighted, including the Wellness and Healthcare about $150 million, but we shouldn't just look at the investment from the lenses of IQOS because part of the investment which we already started, what we committed to make this year, I believe, will also benefit further growth opportunity for ZYN, okay, for Swedish Match.

所以這也有 - 在用戶獲取和銷售設備方面有更好的生產力。邦妮，如果你允許的話，我想回到你之前的問題。當我們看美國的投資時，我們強調，包括大約 1.5 億美元的健康和醫療保健，但我們不應該只從 IQOS 的角度來看投資，因為我們已經開始的部分投資，我們承諾要做的我相信，今年也將有利於 ZYN 的進一步增長機會，好吧，還有瑞典火柴。

So it's not that we're really running this as a 2 separate type of a business as we try to look at this from the leveraging and further enhancing the capabilities of Swedish Match and I believe the opportunities for ZYN in the U.S -- they had a spectacular phenomenal growth, depends which objective you like better, but I think there is more to come on this one. So the way we're look in allocating the resources that it is not just going to prepare us for the IQOS stake back in '24, but also in the meantime, can further -- can be a further boost to the ZYN.

所以這並不是說我們真的將其作為兩種不同類型的業務來運營，因為我們試圖從利用和進一步增強 Swedish Match 的能力來看待這一點，我相信 ZYN 在美國的機會——他們有一個驚人的驚人增長，取決於你更喜歡哪個目標，但我認為這個目標還有更多。因此，我們在分配資源時的方式不僅會讓我們為 24 年的 IQOS 股份做好準備，而且與此同時，可以進一步——可以進一步推動 ZYN。

Now to your question also about the future rollout of IQOS alone in the U.S. I think September when we met I hope during the Investors Day, we will be in a position to give a more precise plans. We obviously take into consideration the expected time lines vis-a-vis from FDA. We said that we're going to have file IQOS ILUMA, which is our the best flagship and the best propositions we have today. And obviously, our objective -- prime objectives would be to enter markets, U.S. markets with a very big momentum coming from international on the best what we have. But I think by September this year, we should have more details and more visibility about this one.

現在你的問題還有關於 IQOS 未來在美國單獨推出的問題。我想我們在 9 月見面時我希望在投資者日期間，我們能夠給出更準確的計劃。我們顯然考慮了 FDA 的預期時間線。我們說過我們將推出 IQOS ILUMA，這是我們今天最好的旗艦產品和最好的產品。顯然，我們的目標 - 主要目標是進入市場，美國市場具有來自國際的巨大勢頭，我們擁有最好的東西。但我認為到今年 9 月，我們應該對此有更多的細節和更多的知名度。

We'll take our next question from Gaurav Jain with Barclays.

我們將接受來自巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain 的下一個問題。

A couple from -- So the first is on the step-up in cigarette pricing. So it was 5% last year. You are saying it will be 6% in FY '23. Japan had 5% pricing last year. This year, it will be zero. So clearly, ex-Japan cigarette pricing is accelerating from 4% to 7% approximately. So where exactly is this big step-up happening in cigarette pricing?

一對來自——首先是捲菸定價的提高。所以去年是5%。你是說 23 財年將是 6%。日本去年的定價為 5%。今年，它將為零。很明顯，日本以外的捲煙價格正在從 4% 左右加速到 7%。那麼，捲菸定價的這種大幅上漲究竟發生在什麼地方？

Japan, pretty good in a single out Japan in this case, right? It's the biggest in pricing from the unknown, right? And it's difficult to make any assumptions on Japan. But we have already, this year, working pretty well with the good results on the reversing the pricing trend in Indonesia, as you may recall, and I believe we really turned the corner in Indonesia, which always due to volume underlying size of the and the weight of the business to us is very important.

日本，在這種情況下單挑日本還算不錯吧？這是未知數中最大的定價，對吧？很難對日本做出任何假設。但今年，我們已經在扭轉印度尼西亞的定價趨勢方面取得了良好的成果，正如您可能還記得的那樣，我相信我們真的在印度尼西亞扭轉了局面，這始終歸功於業務對我們的重要性非常重要。

I think we have a stronger Philippines, because the European markets also come with a strong pricing. So that 6%, which we assume in the -- for this year is just a reflection of this. Now it depends what's happened in Japan. I mean all of these things will be coming on the top. But actually, Japan from the large geographies is the only market where visibility for obvious reasons is very limited.

我認為我們有一個更強大的菲律賓，因為歐洲市場的定價也很強勁。因此，我們在今年假設的 6% 只是對此的反映。現在這取決於日本發生了什麼。我的意思是所有這些事情都將排在首位。但實際上，由於顯而易見的原因，日本是唯一一個知名度非常有限的市場。

Sure. And then on this EU heated tobacco flavor ban, which is expected to come later this year, how should we think about it? And how is it factored in your guidance?

當然。那麼對於預計今年晚些時候出台的歐盟加熱煙草香料禁令，我們應該如何考慮呢？它是如何影響你的指導的？

I mean, it's one of the events which nobody ever experienced. We have some sort of similarities with the flavor bonds, including menthol on the combustible figure, as you may recall a few years ago, and frankly speaking, it has not had any material sort of impact on the cigarette volume. So I think here -- okay. We'll see what's going to happen. We think it's going to be manageable.

我的意思是，這是沒有人經歷過的事件之一。我們與風味鍵有某種相似之處，包括可燃物上的薄荷醇，您可能記得幾年前，坦率地說，它對捲菸量沒有任何實質性影響。所以我想在這裡 - 好吧。我們將看看會發生什麼。我們認為這將是可控的。

We'll take our next question from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.

我們將接受來自摩根士丹利的 Pamela Kaufman 的下一個問題。

Can you discuss your strategy for the U.S. market this year for Swedish Match and what your key priorities are? And then what are your plans for the international rollout of ZYN and the time line?

你能談談今年瑞典火柴在美國市場的戰略以及你的主要優先事項是什麼嗎？那麼您對 ZYN 的國際推廣計劃和時間表是什麼？

Yes. So obviously, the focus is to continue and enhance the spectacular momentum of pouches in growth in the U.S. I mentioned this before answering another question that part of the investments we are allocating to U.S., I believe, also will benefit the current business of Swedish Match.

是的。很明顯，重點是繼續並增強美國包裝袋的驚人增長勢頭。我在回答另一個問題之前提到了這一點，我相信我們分配給美國的部分投資也將有利於瑞典火柴目前的業務.

I think there should be the better pricing, especially on the cigar business, although it is not really our strategic focus but still obviously helps the overall business performance. And the strategy in terms of the long term, I mean the big question, obviously, is how we will approach IQOS commercialization the moment when we fully take it back in 2024. And we know what sort of actual capabilities are missing at the Swedish Match level. So we're adding them.

我認為應該有更好的定價，尤其是雪茄業務，雖然這不是我們的戰略重點，但仍然明顯有助於整體業務績效。就長期戰略而言，我的意思是，大問題顯然是，當我們在 2024 年完全收回 IQOS 商業化的那一刻，我們將如何處理它。而且我們知道瑞典比賽缺少什麼樣的實際能力等級。所以我們正在添加它們。

But the real big commercial spend, I mean, it will depend on the timing and the intensity of our rollout plans which we will share, I guess, around the September during the investor -- September this year around the Investors Day. When it comes to the pouches on international, I think Swedish Match and us now together have plans how to start addressing some share pressure, especially in the Nordics, okay?

但真正的大商業支出，我的意思是，這將取決於我們將分享的推出計劃的時間和強度，我想，我們將在 9 月左右的投資者期間——今年 9 月的投資者日前後分享這些計劃。談到國際郵袋，我認為 Swedish Match 和我們現在共同製定瞭如何開始解決一些份額壓力的計劃，尤其是在北歐，好嗎？

But on the bigger international scale, we have quite a few markets, which we will start rolling out the pouches this year about obvious reasons, I will not mention which markets. But there was the whole purpose of acquisition of Swedish Match. As you'll recall, leverage the base of growth opportunity in the U.S. is a huge relief in a sense of a preparedness for IQOS.

但在更大的國際範圍內，我們有相當多的市場，我們將在今年開始推出這些袋子，原因很明顯，我不會提到哪些市場。但收購 Swedish Match 的全部目的都是如此。正如您所記得的那樣，利用美國的增長機會基礎在為 IQOS 做好準備的意義上是一個巨大的解脫。

But also, I believe the category has quite a potential in the RRP, the reduced-risk products based on international basis. So we have infrastructure in most of the markets, it's -- I'm not releasing really -- disclosing any strategic confidential matters. Obviously, IQOS is present in 70-plus markets. This is where the developed infrastructure is most developed and very likely the market for ZYN products will be within the list of this market.

而且，我相信該類別在 RRP（基於國際基礎的降低風險產品）中具有相當大的潛力。所以我們在大多數市場都有基礎設施，它——我沒有真正發布——披露任何戰略機密事項。顯然，IQOS 存在於 70 多個市場。這是發達的基礎設施最發達的地方，ZYN 產品的市場很可能會在這個市場的列表中。

And then can you just talk about your strategy with the bonds product that you launched in test markets and what your early observations are. And then how are you thinking about a broader rollout over time?

然後你能談談你在測試市場推出的債券產品的策略以及你的早期觀察結果嗎？然後你如何考慮隨著時間的推移更廣泛的推出？

Yes. I mean it was broader rollout of the bonds (inaudible) or more strategically planned for the 2024, so the next year. We will have some volume, but nothing compared to be very frank to what we have about the IQOS and ILUMA product. This is by far the prime focus.

是的。我的意思是，這是更廣泛地推出債券（聽不清），或者更具戰略性地計劃在 2024 年，也就是明年。我們會有一些量，但與我們對 IQOS 和 ILUMA 產品的了解相比，沒有什麼比這更坦率了。這是迄今為止的主要焦點。

But I think the early results, which we'll get from the Philippines and Colombia. I mean they're very strong. Actually, they're very strong. Obviously, our expectations after 7 or so years of experience with IQOS products are much higher than we ever had. So bonds have to come and meet that expectations as well. The proposition, essentially, we knew that the moment when we'll be going more into the emerging markets, lower income when they afford consumer affordability might be a bottle lag in achieving our smoke-free ambitions.

但我認為我們將從菲律賓和哥倫比亞獲得早期結果。我的意思是他們非常強大。其實他們很強顯然，在使用 IQOS 產品 7 年左右的經驗之後，我們的期望比以往任何時候都高得多。因此，債券也必須滿足這種期望。從本質上講，我們知道，當我們更多地進入新興市場時，當他們負擔得起消費者的承受能力時，收入會降低，這可能是實現我們無菸野心的瓶頸。

We had to also come up with a technology, both on the consumables and on the device, which somehow adjust the cost of the propositions to the potential pricing we can -- we can offer to the market. So obviously, the focus will be on the emerging markets. But I do believe that, that proposition also, nicely, will help in some developed economies because across the spectrum of the smokers audience. Obviously, the also group of people who therefore ability might create some constraints. So that will be a very nice complementary propositions in our portfolio. And essentially, it also helps IQOS to continue on its extremely successful history of occupying this premium or medium plus space.

我們還必須在消耗品和設備上提出一項技術，以某種方式將提議的成本調整為我們可以提供的潛在定價——我們可以向市場提供。很明顯，重點將放在新興市場上。但我確實相信，這個提議也很好地幫助了一些發達經濟體，因為它涵蓋了整個吸煙者群體。顯然，也因此能力的人群可能會受到一些限制。因此，這將是我們投資組合中一個非常好的互補命題。從本質上講，它還幫助 IQOS 繼續其占據高端或中等以上空間的極為成功的歷史。

This is this mega brand, which we're trying to build while preparing ourselves that -- you know 1 billion-plus smokers in the world. I mean, they're going across the different various price segments from the premium mid, low, super low, et cetera, and we need to provide the relevant propositions there. So I think BONDS is on the track, and this is how we're going to play strategically in the portfolio.

這就是這個大品牌，我們正在努力打造，同時做好準備——你知道世界上有超過 10 億的吸煙者。我的意思是，他們正在跨越不同的價格段，從中高端、低端、超低端等等，我們需要在那裡提供相關的建議。所以我認為 BONDS 正在走上正軌，這就是我們在投資組合中戰略性地發揮作用的方式。

We'll take our next question from Vivien Azer with Cowen.

我們將與 Cowen 一起接受 Vivien Azer 的下一個問題。

I was hoping to talk about the IQOS outlook, please, in terms of the stakes. And in particular, what impact is the removal of characterizing flavors on HTUs in the EU impacting your outlook? How are you accounting for that? And what's the expected timing of that, please?

我希望就利害關係談談 IQOS 的前景。特別是，歐盟取消 HTU 的特徵風味對您的前景有何影響？你是怎麼解釋的？請問，預計的時間是什麼時候？

Yes. I partially answered that question before, Vivien. But the character is in flavor. We had an experience with cigarettes, combustible cigarettes in the past. And is the only reference point we have today. And as you recall, the menthol and others ban in Europe didn't really impact in any material way the volumes of the cigarettes. So I think here, one can expect a similar sort of a manageable impact, if you like, of that (inaudible).

是的。 Vivien，我之前已經部分回答了這個問題。但是這個角色很有味道。我們過去有過香煙、可燃香煙的經歷。並且是我們今天唯一的參考點。你還記得，歐洲的薄荷醇和其他禁令並沒有真正影響香煙的體積。所以我認為在這裡，如果你願意的話，人們可以期待一種類似的可管理影響（聽不清）。

The second thing is worth of also reminding everyone that IQOS by far today is the best tobacco flavor proposition. Yes, there are some flavors which we have in our portfolio in the market that proportions might be different. But by far, IQOS on the pure tobacco flavor, and this is, by the way, where the bulk of the cigarette market, the rest in essentially all geographies. I mean, this is an IQOS strength. So there is a portion of a portfolio which will be impacted.

第二件事也值得提醒大家，到目前為止，IQOS 是最好的煙草口味主張。是的，我們在市場上的投資組合中有一些口味的比例可能不同。但到目前為止，IQOS 是純煙草味的，順便說一下，這是大部分香煙市場，其餘基本上在所有地區。我的意思是，這是 IQOS 的優勢。因此，投資組合的一部分將受到影響。

But I think for the vast majority of the smokers existing -- sorry, existing competitive to IQOS users and the smokers, which are still on combustible. I mean, IQOS still offers today best-in-class taste and flavor experience, which is in the core of the tobacco flavor.

但我認為對於現有的絕大多數吸煙者來說——對不起，現有的 IQOS 用戶和吸煙者存在競爭，他們仍然在燃燒。我的意思是，IQOS 仍然提供當今一流的口感和風味體驗，這是煙草風味的核心。

And I apologize if I missed this, but is there any way that you can provide an update on kind of the infrastructure build-out for IQOS in the U.S. ahead of your reacquiring the commercial rights proposition, both in terms of the consumables as well as the devices.

如果我錯過了這一點，我深表歉意，但是在您重新獲得商業權利提議之前，您是否可以通過任何方式提供有關美國 IQOS 基礎設施建設的更新，包括消耗品和設備。

Yes, I think there was -- look, there was -- we're looking also -- we're also looking at this not only on IQOS on a standard basis, but IQOS and the ZYN and other parts of the Swedish Match business. I believe the obvious questions of the optimal distribution and I believe this can be very well an enhancement, sorry to the distribution serves not only in a future IQOS, but can and will serve actually ZYN growth opportunities today. There is the whole digital aspect. There is a better management of the pricing promotions, the whole consumer piece, right? Which is so strong behind an IQOS success. I mean, that's something which we are preparing the infrastructure for.

是的，我認為有——看，有——我們也在研究——我們不僅在標準基礎上研究 IQOS，而且研究 IQOS 和 ZYN 以及瑞典火柴業務的其他部分.我相信最優分配的明顯問題，我相信這可以很好地增強，對不起，分配不僅服務於未來的 IQOS，而且可以而且將會服務於今天的 ZYN 增長機會。有整個數字方面。對整個消費者的價格促銷有更好的管理，對嗎？ IQOS 成功背後的強大力量。我的意思是，我們正在為此準備基礎設施。

We'll take our next question from Owen Bennett with Jefferies.

我們將與 Jefferies 一起接受 Owen Bennett 的下一個問題。

Yes. My question is more a bigger picture, longer term, one around the U.S. and the overall RRP space now you've got control of your own destiny. I was hoping to get your thoughts on how you see RRP overall develop longer term across the different categories whether you see some more attractive than all these? And do you still think heated can be sizable when we introduced into the U.S., obviously, bearing in mind a limited traction it got with Altria.

是的。我的問題是更大的圖景，更長遠的圖景，圍繞美國和整個 RRP 空間，現在你已經掌握了自己的命運。我希望了解您如何看待 RRP 在不同類別中的整體長期發展，您是否看到一些比所有這些更具吸引力？當我們引入美國時，你是否仍然認為加熱可能相當大，顯然，考慮到奧馳亞的牽引力有限。

And then just linked to these U.S. RRP plans, any update on timing for a PMTA submission with your vape product?

然後與這些美國 RRP 計劃相關聯，關於您的 vape 產品提交 PMTA 的時間有任何更新嗎？

Yes. So I start with the last one, we plan to submit the IQOS ILUMA to PMTA, to FDA in the second half of this year. Now with regards to the potential -- we think that an IQOS strength, which is really if you go to the core of the smokers today when they really enjoy this pure unaffected by any flavors, et cetera, tobacco flavor and so on is undisputed.

是的。所以我從最後一個開始，我們計劃在今年下半年將 IQOS ILUMA 提交給 PMTA，提交給 FDA。現在關於潛力——我們認為 IQOS 的優勢，如果你去到今天吸煙者的核心，當他們真正享受這種不受任何口味、等等、煙草口味等影響的純淨時，這是無可爭議的。

Every market, you go IQOS exactly delivers on the flavor taste expectations to this audience. And that's also, I believe, a critical factor in IQOS high conversion rate, how many people fully adopt the IQOS. And not only that they are leaving cigarettes fully behind them, they don't even attempt at on an occasional basis to go back to cigarettes, okay? So that's the core. And I believe, for the audience with the smoking audience, which we have in the U.S. IQOS perfectly fit into this whole thing.

每個市場，你去 IQOS 都準確地滿足了觀眾對口味的期望。我認為，這也是 IQOS 高轉化率的一個關鍵因素，有多少人完全採用了 IQOS。不僅他們將香煙完全拋在腦後，他們甚至偶爾都不會嘗試重新吸上香煙，好嗎？這就是核心。我相信，對於我們在美國有吸煙觀眾的觀眾來說，IQOS 非常適合這一切。

Obviously, the other platforms, which offer you the different ritual, different experience, the cigarettes and the pouches. Cigarettes, usually more driven by the flavors, obviously, absent the pure tobacco natural type of flavor, that's the challenge, which partially in our opinion, is behind more of the dual consumption, the full conversion, but also the products are under development and they're getting better. And pouch is actually on the risk continuum of the product.

顯然，其他平台為您提供不同的儀式、不同的體驗、香煙和小袋。香煙，通常更多地受口味驅動，顯然，缺少純煙草天然類型的口味，這就是挑戰，我們認為部分原因在於更多的雙重消費，完全轉換，而且產品正在開發和他們越來越好。而小袋實際上是產品的風險連續體。

I mean it's another important offering for the consumers who really want to reduced significantly exposure and potentially the harm by -- while enjoying the product. So I think there is this complementary -- there the complementary role of each of these platforms with also that we're working on our platform forward, we -- internally, which is leaf and the Viva products, the electronic cigarette segment going through its own dynamics is this mix of the flavors, disposable, et cetera, is not necessarily great for the economics, but partially also because of this lower conversion rate compared to the other platforms.

我的意思是，對於那些真正希望在享受產品的同時顯著減少暴露和潛在傷害的消費者來說，這是另一個重要的產品。所以我認為存在這種互補 - 這些平台中的每一個都具有互補作用，我們正在努力推進我們的平台，我們 - 在內部，這是 leaf 和 Viva 產品，電子煙部分正在經歷它的自己的動力是這種口味的混合，一次性等等，不一定對經濟有利，但部分原因也是因為與其他平台相比轉換率較低。

So we have said it from the very beginning of our transformation, if you follow us 7, 8 years ago, I recalled one of the first investors conferences when we announced the power plays that we want to go smoke-free. We have said that there is the room for every platform at the different moments for different consumers. And our job is at the right time to deploy these platforms and the leverage the opportunities and the benefit to the smoker.

所以我們從轉型的一開始就說過，如果你在 7、8 年前關注我們，我記得第一次投資者會議之一，當時我們宣布了我們想要無菸的權力遊戲。我們說過，每個平台在不同的時刻都有空間，適合不同的消費者。我們的工作是在正確的時間部署這些平台，並利用機會為吸煙者帶來好處。

Great. Fantastic. And just sorry, a follow-up, the question on the PMTA was not for ILUMA. I think previously (inaudible), you said you targeted first half of '23. Just any update on PMTA submission.

偉大的。極好的。抱歉，跟進，關於 PMTA 的問題不是針對 ILUMA 的。我想以前（聽不清），你說你的目標是 23 年上半年。只是關於 PMTA 提交的任何更新。

Yes. I think we're also thinking about the 2023, but now having also the ZYN and knowing what ILUMA can do and knowing the P4 we also need to make sure that we have the right PMTA submission strategy, right, because an effort behind each of them, and we need to prioritize. But I mean we are thinking -- it's more than thinking, we're working on bringing our P4 to the U.S. as well.

是的。我想我們也在考慮 2023，但現在有了 ZYN，知道 ILUMA 能做什麼，知道 P4，我們還需要確保我們有正確的 PMTA 提交策略，對吧，因為每個背後的努力他們，我們需要優先考慮。但我的意思是我們正在思考——不僅僅是思考，我們也在努力將我們的 P4 帶到美國。

We'll take our next question from Andre Condra with UBS.

我們將接受安德烈康德拉與瑞銀的下一個問題。

Just one from me. Sticking to U.S. IQOS. We know that the U.S. menthol ban from the FDA proposed standards allows -- potentially will allow for some exemptions to it. And thinking that your IQOS has the MRTP designation, which is rather unique versus all its peers, were you factoring this in when you set out your ambition of, I believe, 10% market share by 2030, if I'm not mistaken?

就我一個。堅持使用美國 IQOS。我們知道 FDA 提議的標準中的美國薄荷醇禁令允許 - 可能會允許對其進行一些豁免。並且認為您的 IQOS 具有 MRTP 名稱，這與所有同類產品相比相當獨特，如果我沒有弄錯的話，我相信，到 2030 年達到 10% 的市場份額的雄心壯誌時，您是否考慮到了這一點？

Yes. I think you're quoting my word. This is Jacek here. Yes, I still do believe that IQOS by 2030, knowing how it performs on the many other international markets, the 10% is not out of -- out of -- it can be a realistic ambitious -- ambition or realistic dream. Now to be very frank, when we look into this, we have not been trying to factor in that there might be some flavors of menthol bans on other products.

是的。我想你是在引用我的話。我是 Jacek。是的，我仍然相信到 2030 年 IQOS，知道它在許多其他國際市場上的表現，這 10% 不是出於 - 出於 - 它可以是一個現實的雄心壯志 - 雄心壯誌或現實的夢想。現在非常坦率地說，當我們調查這個問題時，我們並沒有試圖考慮到其他產品可能存在某些口味的薄荷醇禁令。

But you're rightly note that IQOS today is -- 2 variants of IQOS authorized with the menthol flavor. Will this be an accelerating factor or not, the future will tell. But I still believe that IQOS is in a current environment due to its strength and the satisfaction it gives to smokers, et cetera, has that big potential in from the base.

但你正確地註意到，今天的 IQOS 是 - 授權具有薄荷味的 IQOS 的 2 個變體。這會不會是一個加速因素，未來會告訴我們答案。但我仍然相信，由於 IQOS 的實力和它給吸煙者帶來的滿足感等因素，IQOS 在當前環境中具有巨大的潛力。

We'll take our last question from Jared Dinges with JPMorgan.

我們將接受 JPMorgan 的 Jared Dinges 的最後一個問題。

A couple for me, please. First, given the CapEx step-up in CapEx that you expect for this year, I just wanted to ask -- how should we be thinking about CapEx levels beyond '23? Is next year kind of a one-off given the ZYN international expansion plans?

請給我一對。首先，考慮到您預計今年資本支出將增加，我只想問——我們應該如何考慮 23 年後的資本支出水平？考慮到 ZYN 的國際擴張計劃，明年是一次性的嗎？

Look, I think you should expect us, of course, to accompany the growth. We are growing volume within more capacity. So the CapEx will reflect that. There is certainly when it comes to ILUMA a moment where we build the capacity for ILUMA and that is translating into a significant investment.

看，我想你當然應該期待我們陪伴成長。我們正在以更大的容量增加容量。所以資本支出將反映這一點。當談到 ILUMA 時，我們肯定會為 ILUMA 建立能力，這正在轉化為一項重大投資。

So you see that in the 1.3. I would say we are going to certainly regularly invest on the capacity for the Swedish Match overall business. So I'm not able to get at that stage. I'm not giving guidance on '24. I certainly believe that there is this transition moment where we are building the capacity on ILUMA, then, of course, that will be accompanying the growth of ILUMA, and we are very ambitious, as you know, on growing overall product. So that will come with investments. But of course, they are not of the same magnitude as the one that we've been making in order to build the capacity on IQOS, smaller volume, smaller base, so not with the same impact on the long term anyway.

所以你在 1.3 中看到了這一點。我會說我們肯定會定期投資於瑞典火柴整體業務的能力。所以我無法到達那個階段。我不會在 24 年提供指導。我當然相信，在這個過渡時刻，我們正在建設 ILUMA 的能力，然後，當然，這將伴隨 ILUMA 的增長，而且我們非常雄心勃勃，正如你所知，在增長整體產品方面。因此，這將伴隨著投資。但當然，它們的規模與我們為在 IQOS 上構建容量而製造的規模不同，體積更小，基數更小，因此從長遠來看不會產生同樣的影響。

Got it. That's clear. And for the second one, maybe just on the healthcare and wellness segment, 2023 will be another investment year. I know you guys have talked about that probably being a multiyear investment cycle. But I don't know if you can give any indication on when you think that business could potentially start to contribute to growth?

知道了。這很清楚。對於第二個，也許只是在醫療保健領域，2023 年將是又一個投資年。我知道你們已經談到這可能是一個多年的投資週期。但我不知道您是否可以給出任何跡象表明您認為該業務何時可能開始為增長做出貢獻？

And maybe also, could you guys talk about your learnings so far in those businesses that you have acquired?

也許還有，你們能談談你們迄今為止在收購的那些企業中學到的東西嗎？

Yes. I mean, look, obviously, and we've been very clear about this from the very beginning, I mean, in order to develop and bring to the market on a couple of the programs or products which we have in the mind, I mean I have to go through the investments. We're talking about us prefer also have a very promising investment in the medical or -- in medical space of cannabinoids, et cetera. So all of these programs, they are great established milestones in terms of the development of these products, including the series of clinicals and meeting the different regulatory expectations.

是的。我的意思是，看，很明顯，我們從一開始就非常清楚這一點，我的意思是，為了開發我們心目中的幾個程序或產品並將其推向市場，我的意思是我必須通過投資。我們正在談論我們更喜歡在醫療或大麻素等醫療領域進行非常有前途的投資。因此，所有這些項目，在這些產品的開發方面都是偉大的既定里程碑，包括臨床系列和滿足不同的監管期望。

So that's about what's going to be. We have set historically an ambitious target of achieving this $1 billion revenue by 2025. There is a pipeline of the product. But the more interesting actually is what's going to happen with that business beyond '25 because it's a term longer-term investment. Obviously, when we allocate the capital, we look -- first, we allocate the capital behind those things which are in the near and the midterm for us.

這就是將要發生的事情。從歷史上看，我們設定了一個雄心勃勃的目標，即到 2025 年實現 10 億美元的收入。該產品有一條管道。但實際上更有趣的是 25 年後該業務會發生什麼，因為這是一項長期投資。顯然，當我們分配資本時，我們會看——首先，我們將資本分配給我們近期和中期的那些東西。

And there's obviously heat-not-burns and IQOS, ILUMA expansions to the U.S., and I can go through the long list of opportunities but keeping also the (inaudible) that these businesses have a quite Wellness and Healthcare, offers us very interesting opportunities in the longer run. When we very well leveraged, both our scientific, life science expertise capabilities combined with the commercial, et cetera.

顯然有加熱不燃燒和 IQOS，ILUMA 擴展到美國，我可以通過一長串機會，但也保持（聽不清）這些企業有相當的健康和醫療保健，為我們提供了非常有趣的機會運行時間越長。當我們很好地利用時，我們的科學、生命科學專業知識能力與商業等相結合。

So this is how I would look on this thing. I think when we meet on the in September of this year for the Investors Day, we will start obviously opening a much more longer-term horizon of the management, how we see the future of PMI, not just in the next year or 2, but with a longer time of perspective. And this is the moment when I guess we will share more details. By the way, also, I think we'll be able to answer more precisely your first question to Emmanuel about the CapEx because, obviously, we open a 10-year horizon for Philip Morris, we'll have to touch up on that capital allocation component as well.

所以這就是我看待這件事的方式。我認為，當我們在今年 9 月的投資者日見面時，我們將開始明顯地打開一個更長期的管理層視野，我們如何看待 PMI 的未來，而不僅僅是明年或兩年，而是用更長的時間來看待。這是我想我們將分享更多細節的時刻。順便說一句，我認為我們將能夠更準確地回答你向 Emmanuel 提出的關於資本支出的第一個問題，因為很明顯，我們為菲利普莫里斯打開了一個 10 年的視野，我們將不得不觸及那個資本分配組件也是如此。

It appears we have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the program back over to management for any additional or closing remarks.

看來我們現在沒有其他問題了。我現在將把該計劃交還給管理層，徵求任何補充意見或結束意見。

Thank you. Before closing our call, I would like to remind you that we'll be presenting at the CAGNY conference on February 22. And as we mentioned earlier, we plan to host the September Investor Day in Switzerland. We hope you will be able to join these events either in person or virtually. That concludes our call today. Thank you again for joining us. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact the Investor Relations team.

謝謝。在結束我們的電話會議之前，我想提醒您，我們將在 2 月 22 日的 CAGNY 會議上發表演講。正如我們之前提到的，我們計劃在瑞士舉辦 9 月的投資者日。我們希望您能夠親自或通過虛擬方式參加這些活動。我們今天的電話會議到此結束。再次感謝您加入我們。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯繫投資者關係團隊。

Thank you. Talk to you soon.

謝謝。以後再聊。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。