菲利普莫里斯國際 (PM) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Philip Morris International Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour including remarks by Philip Morris International management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Media representatives on the call will also be invited to ask questions at the conclusion of questions from the investment community. I will now turn the call over to Mr. James Bushnell, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communications. Please go ahead, sir.

美好的一天，歡迎參加菲利普莫里斯國際公司 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續約 1 小時，包括菲利普莫里斯國際公司管理層的演講和問答環節。 （操作員說明）在投資界提問結束時，也將邀請參加電話會議的媒體代表提問。我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係和財經傳播副總裁詹姆斯布希內爾先生。請繼續，先生。

Welcome. Thank you for joining us. Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2023 third quarter results. The press release is available on our website at pmi.com. A glossary of terms, including the definition for smoke-free products as well as adjustments, other calculations and reconciliations to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures for non-GAAP financial measures cited in this presentation and additional net revenue data are available in Exhibit 99.2 to the company's Form 8-K dated October 19, 2023 and on our Investor Relations website.

歡迎。感謝您加入我們。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含有關 2023 年第三季業績的詳細資訊。新聞稿可在我們的網站 pmi.com 上取得。術語表，包括無菸產品的定義以及與本簡報中引用的非公認會計原則財務指標最直接可比較的美國公認會計原則衡量標準的調整、其他計算和對賬，以及其他淨收入數據，請參見圖表99.2請參閱公司日期為 2023 年 10 月 19 日的 8-K 表格以及我們的投資者關係網站。

Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results. I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements.

今天的言論包含前瞻性陳述和對未來結果的預測。我請您注意今天的簡報和新聞稿中揭露的前瞻性和警示性聲明，以審查可能導致實際結果與預測或前瞻性聲明有重大差異的各種因素。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Emmanuel Babeau, our Chief Financial Officer. Over to you, Emmanuel.

現在我很高興向大家介紹我們的財務長 Emmanuel Babeau。交給你了，伊曼紐。

Thank you, James, and welcome, everyone. We delivered very strong and better-than-expected performance in Q3, driven by IQOS and ZYN. Adjusted diluted EPS grew by an excellent plus 20% in currency-neutral terms to reach a record quarterly high of $1.67 despite a significant adverse currency impact in the period.

謝謝詹姆斯，歡迎大家。在 IQOS 和 ZYN 的推動下，我們在第三季取得了非常強勁且優於預期的業績。儘管在此期間受到了重大的不利匯率影響，但按貨幣中性計算，調整後攤薄每股收益仍大幅增長 20%，達到創紀錄的季度新高 1.67 美元。

Once again, our total volumes were positive with the Q3 progression of over plus 2%, positioning us to deliver our third straight year of growth. While not yet in our organic metrics, ZYN continued its exceptional growth with U.S. volumes up by plus 66% in Q3 and over plus 50% year-to-date with a substantial increase in category share.

我們的總銷量再次呈現正成長，第三季成長超過 2%，使我們能夠實現連續第三年的成長。雖然尚未納入我們的有機指標，但 ZYN 繼續保持強勁成長，第三季美國銷量成長了 66%，今年迄今成長了 50% 以上，類別份額大幅增加。

Importantly, our IQOS business delivered another strong quarter with HTU shipment growing plus 18%, in line with the year-to-date trend. As covered at our recent Investor Day, HTU volumes have excellent unit economics related to cigarettes. And the plus 16.5% organic net revenue growth from smoke-free product was a key driver in both our high single-digit organic top line and double-digit organic operating income growth.

重要的是，我們的 IQOS 業務再次表現強勁，HTU 出貨量成長了 18%，與今年迄今的趨勢一致。正如我們最近在投資者日報所報導的那樣，HTU 銷售具有與捲菸相關的出色單位經濟效益。無菸產品帶來的超過 16.5% 的有機淨收入成長是我們高單位數有機營收和兩位數有機營業收入成長的關鍵驅動力。

Smoke-free products made up over 36% of total net revenue in the quarter as we drive towards our new ambition of over 2/3 by 2030, making us substantially smoke-free.

無菸產品佔本季總淨收入的 36% 以上，我們正​​在努力實現到 2030 年達到 2/3 以上的新目標，使我們基本上實現無菸。

In combustibles, we delivered very robust performance with plus 6% growth in organic net revenues, strong pricing and higher category share despite the impact of the adult smokers moving to smoke-free product.

在可燃品領域，儘管受到成年吸菸者轉向無菸產品的影響，但我們仍取得了非常強勁的業績，有機淨收入增長了 6% 以上，定價強勁，品類份額更高。

Our impressing operating income growth drove organic year-on-year margin expansion and a sequential improvement compared to the second quarter. This includes healthy expansion in the gross margin of our IQOS business which surpassed Combustible in the period and lower-than-expected commercial cost. Overall, we are pleased to report another strong quarter, and we look forward with confidence to the remainder of the year and beyond.

我們令人印象深刻的營業收入成長推動了利潤率的有機同比擴張以及與第二季度相比的環比改善。這包括我們的 IQOS 業務毛利率健康擴張，期內超過 Combustible，以及低於預期的商業成本。總體而言，我們很高興報告又一個強勁的季度，並且我們滿懷信心地期待今年剩餘時間及以後的表現。

Turning now to the headline numbers. We surpassed $9 billion in quarterly net revenues for the first time, as strong positive volume and continued excellent IQOS momentum supported organic net revenue growth of plus 9.3%. This organic growth does not include the impressive plus 22% adjusted ex-currency top-line growth of Swedish Match led by ZYN.

現在轉向標題數字。我們的季度淨收入首次超過 90 億美元，強勁的銷量和持續出色的 IQOS 勢頭支持有機淨收入增長 9.3% 以上。這一有機成長不包括由 ZYN 領導的瑞典火柴 (Swedish Match) 令人印象深刻的 22% 調整後的外匯收入成長。

Our organic net revenue per unit grew by plus 7%, driven by the increasing proportion of IQOS HTUs in our sales mix and very firm Combustible pricing of plus 9%. This positive top line and mix performance drove a very strong organic operating income growth of plus 11.3% and organic margin expansion of plus 70 basis points. Again, this excludes the exceptional performance of Swedish Match, which is included in our adjusted diluted EPS.

由於 IQOS HTU 在我們的銷售組合中所佔比例不斷增加以及非常堅定的可燃物定價超過 9%，我們的單位有機淨收入增長了 7% 以上。這種積極的營收和混合業績推動有機營業收入成長 11.3% 以上，有機利潤率擴大 70 個基點以上。同樣，這不包括瑞典火柴的出色表現，該業績已包含在我們調整後的稀釋每股收益中。

We delivered adjusted diluted earnings per share growth of plus 20.3% excluding an unfavorable currency impact of $0.17, notably due to the Russian ruble and the balance sheet-related currency impact in Argentina as disclosed at our recent Investor Day. Sequentially, lower net financing costs were broadly offset by a higher tax rate.

排除 0.17 美元的不利貨幣影響，我們的調整後稀釋每股收益增長了 20.3% 以上，這主要是由於俄羅斯盧布和阿根廷資產負債表相關貨幣的影響，正如我們在最近的投資者日披露的那樣。隨後，較低的淨融資成本被較高的稅率所抵銷。

Our excellent third quarter combined with the robust H1 resulted in strong delivery year-to-date. I want to highlight our volume growth of plus 1.5% and organic net revenue growth of plus 7.7%, again reflecting continued dynamic IQOS performance and Combustible pricing.

我們出色的第三季與強勁的上半年相結合，帶來了年初至今的強勁交付。我想強調的是，我們的銷售量成長了 1.5% 以上，有機淨收入成長了 7.7% 以上，再次反映了持續動態的 IQOS 性能和可燃定價。

In addition, Swedish Match currency-neutral net revenues increased by plus 18%, excluding accounting reclassifications. Year-to-date, operating income grew by plus 2.4% organically despite accentuated margin headwinds and the notable OI decline in the first quarter due to the headwinds covered previously, which are now starting to subside.

此外，在不包括會計重新分類的情況下，Swedish Match 扣除貨幣因素後的淨收入增加了 18% 以上。今年迄今為止，儘管利潤率不利因素加劇，並且由於先前提到的不利因素導致第一季 OI 顯著下降，但營運收入有機增長了 2.4%，而這些不利因素現在開始消退。

Combined with outstanding ZYN performance, this resulted in year-to-date currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth of plus 10.7% to $4.65, this is an excellent performance.

再加上出色的 ZYN 業績，導致年初至今的貨幣中性調整後攤薄每股收益增長 10.7%，達到 4.65 美元，這是一個出色的業績。

Turning now to the full year outlook. I am pleased to share that following this very strong year-to-date delivery, we are raising our volume, organic sales growth and currency neutral adjusted bottom line growth forecast. First to volumes where we increased our outlook to plus 1% to plus 1.5% total shipment growth for cigarettes and HTUs despite a lower expectation for the total industry. Within this, we expect to deliver HTU shipment volume within the lower half of our prior 125 billion to 130 billion range. While IQOS fundamentals remain strong, this reflects a further delay to the expected market launch in Taiwan, limited underlying growth in Russia and Ukraine as well as some uncertainty related to inventory level in EU as trade partners adjust to the upcoming HTU flavor ban.

現在轉向全年展望。我很高興地告訴大家，繼年初至今的強勁交付之後，我們正在提高銷售量、有機銷售成長和貨幣中性調整後的底線成長預測。首先是捲菸和 HTU 的總出貨量成長預期，儘管對整個產業的預期較低，但我們將其預期提高到了 1% 至 1.5%。在此範圍內，我們預計 HTU 出貨量將在先前 1,250 億至 1,300 億範圍的下半部內。雖然 IQOS 基本面依然強勁，但這反映出台灣預期市場推出的進一步推遲、俄羅斯和烏克蘭的潛在增長有限，以及隨著貿易夥伴適應即將到來的 HTU 香料禁令，歐盟庫存水平存在一些不確定性。

For Combustible, the resilience of our portfolio is reflected in an updated forecast of a 1% to 2% cigarette volume decline. ZYN continues to perform exceptionally with strong adult consumer traction. Following a further step-up in the U.S. volume run rate, we are now increasing our full-year nicotine pouch forecast range to 390 million to 410 million cans. Combining the improved volume outlook with robust pricing and continued positive mix, we are narrowing our organic net revenue growth forecast to around plus 8%, the midpoint of our previous range.

對於 Combustible，我們的投資組合的彈性反映在捲菸銷量下降 1% 至 2% 的最新預測中。 ZYN 憑藉強大的成人消費者吸引力繼續表現出色。隨著美國產量運行率進一步提高，我們現在將全年尼古丁袋裝預測範圍提高至 3.9 億至 4.1 億罐。結合銷售前景的改善、強勁的定價和持續的積極組合，我們將有機淨收入成長預測縮小至 8% 左右，即先前區間的中點。

As I will come back to shortly, we expect excellent organic OI growth over the second half of the year. Combining this strong profit performance with the continuation of ZYN's phenomenal growth and diligent cost management allows us to raise our currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth forecast to plus 10% to plus 10.5%. This means we now expect double-digit growth for the third year running and translate into a full year range of $6.05 to $6.08, including an estimated unfavorable currency impact of $0.53 at prevailing rates.

正如我稍後會談到的，我們預計下半年 OI 有機成長將實現出色。將這種強勁的利潤表現與 ZYN 的持續驚人增長和勤奮的成本管理相結合，使我們能夠將貨幣中性調整後的稀釋每股收益增長預測提高至 + 10% 至 + 10.5%。這意味著我們現在預計連續第三年實現兩位數增長，全年增幅為 6.05 美元至 6.08 美元，其中包括按現行匯率計算的預計不利貨幣影響 0.53 美元。

Last, despite increased currency headwinds, we continue to expect operating cash flow of around $10 billion for the year. This sets us up nicely as we focus on deleveraging towards our target of around 2x adjusted net debt-to-EBITDA in 2026.

最後，儘管貨幣阻力加大，我們仍然預計今年的營運現金流將達到 100 億美元左右。這為我們奠定了良好的基礎，因為我們專注於去槓桿化，實現 2026 年調整後淨債務與 EBITDA 約 2 倍的目標。

Now let me provide a different view of our forecasted results. As you can see, 2023 has very much been a year of 2 halves with a number of accentuated headwinds in H1, as explained in prior quarters, including steep cost inflation. H2 is a different story, and we believe it is more reflective of the underlying trajectory of our business.

現在讓我對我們的預測結果提供不同的看法。正如您所看到的，2023 年在很大程度上是兩半的一年，正如前幾季所解釋的那樣，上半年面臨著許多不利因素，包括急劇的成本通膨。 H2 是一個不同的故事，我們相信它更能反映我們業務的基本軌跡。

First, we expect an accelerated H2 top line with organic growth of around plus 9%. Second, we expect a significant re-acceleration in profit growth. We continue to expect organic operating income margin expansion in H2, and we are well on track after delivering another quarter of sequential adjusted OI margin improvement in Q3, with margins also expanding organically year-on-year.

首先，我們預計下半年營收將加速成長，有機成長約 9% 以上。其次，我們預期利潤成長將顯著重新加速。我們繼續預計下半年有機營業收入利潤率將擴大，並且在第三季度連續調整後的 OI 利潤率又實現一個季度的改善後，我們正步入正軌，利潤率也同比有機增長。

In H2, we expect strong organic operating income growth of around 10%. For the full year, our expectation remains that organic margin evolution will be towards the lower end of our minus 50 to minus 150 basis point range, including the expected technical margin impact of around 40 basis points from third-party arrangement in Indonesia and Ukraine.

下半年，我們預計有機營業收入將強勁成長 10% 左右。對於全年，我們的預期仍然是有機利潤率演變將朝著負 50 至負 150 個基點範圍的下限，包括印尼和烏克蘭第三方安排帶來的約 40 個基點的預期技術利潤率影響。

For Q4, we expect strong operating income growth with broadly stable year-on-year organic margin progression. This includes the expectation of higher device sales as we accelerate our ILUMA rollout to reach around 50 markets by year-end, complemented by further ILUMA device innovation. This very positive organic OI trajectory in H2 naturally translate into an acceleration in currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth bolstered by a Swedish Match.

對於第四季度，我們預計營業收入將強勁成長，有機利潤率較去年同期穩定。這包括隨著我們加速 ILUMA 的推出，到年底到達約 50 個市場，並輔以進一步的 ILUMA 設備創新，預計設備銷售量將會增加。下半年這個非常積極的有機 OI 軌跡自然會轉化為瑞典匹配推動的貨幣中性調整後稀釋每股收益成長的加速。

Now turning back to our results. Our total shipment volume increased by plus 2.2% for Q3 and plus 1.5% year-to-date, putting us comfortably on track to deliver our third sequential year of growth. HTU shipment volumes grew by plus 18% in Q3 to reach 32.5 billion units driven by continued strong performance in Europe and Japan. Adjusting for inventory movements, including the transition back to sea freight, Q3 adjusted IMS grew by plus 14.4%. This includes Europe at plus 16% despite heightened competitive activity, notably in Poland and a more normalized growth rate in Japan of plus 12%. Excluding Russia and Ukraine, where growth remains limited, our adjusted IMS advanced by a very robust plus 16%. This growth rate excludes the excellent development of oral nicotine, for which shipment volume grew by plus 19% in Q3 and plus 14% year-to-date on a pro forma basis, including the U.S. growth of ZYN of plus 66% and plus 56%, respectively.

現在回到我們的結果。第三季我們的總出貨量成長了 2.2%，今年迄今成長了 1.5%，這使我們有望連續第三年的成長。在歐洲和日本持續強勁表現的推動下，HTU 出貨量在第三季成長了 18%，達到 325 億顆。調整庫存變動（包括重新轉向海運）後，第三季調整後的 IMS 成長了 14.4%。其中包括歐洲，儘管競爭活動加劇，但仍實現了 16% 以上的成長，特別是在波蘭，而日本的成長率則更為正常化，達到了 12% 以上。排除成長仍然有限的俄羅斯和烏克蘭，我們調整後的 IMS 成長了 16%，非常強勁。這一增長率不包括口服尼古丁的出色發展，按預計，口服尼古丁的出貨量在第三季度增長了 19%，年初至今增長了 14%，其中 ZYN 在美國的增長為 66% 和 56% ％ ， 分別。

If we were to add the growth of nicotine pouches on a unit basis, our Q3 pro forma smoke-free volume grew by plus 19.5% and our total volume by plus 2.5%. Cigarette volume declined by a modest 0.5% in Q3 with strong performance in Turkey and Egypt and by 1.3% year-to-date, reflecting solid category share performance in a resilient category despite robust pricing.

如果我們將尼古丁袋的成長以單位計算在內，我們第三季預計無菸銷售量將成長 19.5%，總銷售量將成長 2.5%。第三季捲菸銷量小幅下降 0.5%，其中土耳其和埃及表現強勁，今年迄今銷量下降 1.3%，反映出儘管定價強勁，但彈性類別中的類別份額表現穩健。

I will now walk through the mechanics of our Q3 net revenues. In addition to plus 2.2% volume growth, pricing contributed plus 6.2 points of growth as Combustibles remain strong and the negative impact on HTU pricing of the annualization of excise tax increases in Japan and Germany, notably moderated.

我現在將介紹我們第三季淨收入的機制。除了銷售成長 2.2% 之外，定價也貢獻了 6.2 個百分點的成長，因為可燃物依然強勁，而且日本和德國消費稅年化成長對 HTU 定價的負面影響明顯減弱。

The increasing proportion of HTUs in our business continues to be a consistent top line driver, reflecting higher net revenue per unit. The positive mix impact of HTUs, overall volume growth and pricing are powerful drivers of our transformation and growth. We expect ZYN to enhance this further as it starts to be included in our organic metrics from mid-Q4.

HTU 在我們業務中所佔的比例不斷增加，這仍然是持續的收入驅動因素，反映出單位淨收入的增加。 HTU 的正面組合影響、整體銷售成長和定價是我們轉型和成長的強大驅動力。我們預計 ZYN 會進一步增強這一點，因為它從第四季度中期開始納入我們的有機指標中。

Looking now at adjusted operating income, where the $3.7 billion delivered in Q3 is also a record-high. I am pleased to report that following peak margin headwind in Q1, our organic growth has accelerated nicely as inflation, supply chain disruption and ILUMA related factors continue to moderate and the underlying dynamics of our transformation bear fruits. The Q3 progression is slightly above our 2024-2026 CAGR target of plus 8% to plus 10% organic operating income growth. And as I covered earlier, we expect our overall H2 OI growth to be around the top of this range.

現在來看看調整後的營業收入，第三季交付的 37 億美元也創下歷史新高。我很高興地向大家報告，繼第一季利潤率峰值逆風之後，隨著通膨、供應鏈中斷和ILUMA 相關因素持續緩和，我們的有機增長已大幅加速，而且我們轉型的潛在動力已結出碩果。第三季的進展略高於我們的 2024-2026 年複合年增長率目標（有機營業收入成長 8% 至 10%）。正如我之前提到的，我們預計 H2 OI 的整體成長將在該範圍的頂部附近。

This strong operating income growth in excess of an already healthy top line performance drove a better-than-expected organic margin expansion of plus 70 basis points in the quarter. This was also the first quarter this year where gross margin expanded organically, notably due to lower shipping costs, ILUMA margin improvement and lower device sales compared to the prior year.

營業收入的強勁成長超過了本已健康的營收業績，推動本季有機利潤率成長超過預期 70 個基點以上。這也是今年第一季毛利率有機成長的原因，主要是由於運輸成本降低、ILUMA 利潤率提高以及設備銷售額與去年相比下降。

SG&A costs were also organically lower as a percentage of net revenue, reflecting a good cost performance and some phasing between the third and fourth quarter. We delivered a further $120 million in gross cost efficiencies in Q3, now surpassing our $2 billion target for '21-'23. We aim to continue this run rate as reflected in our '24-'26 target of an incremental $2 billion in gross savings.

SG&A 成本佔淨收入的百分比也有機下降，反映出良好的成本效益以及第三季和第四季之間的一些階段性變化。我們在第三季的總成本效率又實現了 1.2 億美元，現已超過我們 21-23 年 20 億美元的目標。我們的目標是繼續保持這一運行速度，正如我們的「24-26 年總節省增量 20 億美元」目標所反映的那樣。

The Q3 margin currency variance include a 0.6 point impact from the Argentina balance sheet-related item I mentioned earlier. By its nature, this does not carry forward to future periods.

第三季保證金貨幣差異包括我之前提到的阿根廷資產負債表相關項目的 0.6 個百分點的影響。就其性質而言，這不會延續到未來時期。

Now moving to Swedish Match, which is meaningfully accelerating our smoke-free growth trajectory as we progress towards becoming substantially smoke-free by 2030. Swedish Match business delivered excellent adjusted currency-neutral net revenue growth of plus 22% in Q3 and plus 18% year-to-date. This means that our adjusted pro forma year-to-date top line growth was 60 basis points higher at plus 8.3%. Swedish Match's strong profitability also enhanced our year-to-date adjusted operating income margin by plus 70 basis points.

現在轉向瑞典火柴，隨著我們在2030 年實現基本無菸化，瑞典火柴業務將顯著加速我們的無菸成長軌跡。瑞典火柴業務在第三季實現了調整後的淨收入成長，扣除貨幣中性因素後分別增加了22% 和18% 以上今年迄今。這意味著我們調整後的年初至今營收成長率高出 60 個基點，達到 8.3%。瑞典火柴強勁的獲利能力也使我們年初至今的調整後營業利潤率提高了 70 個基點。

As we covered at Investor Day, Swedish Match's smoke-free portfolio has excellent economic and is already at significant size compared to total PMI with its product contribution or operating profit before G&A to be clear, approaching 1/4 of our total smoke-free business year-to-date.

正如我們在投資者日報所報導的那樣，Swedish Match 的無菸產品組合具有出色的經濟性，與總PMI 相比已經具有相當大的規模，其產品貢獻或G&A 之前的營運利潤很明確，接近我們無菸業務總量的1/4今年迄今。

ZYN remains the key performance driver as it delivered another remarkable U.S. performance with plus 66% volume growth, reflecting positive momentum across the country. Elsewhere in smoke-free, recent trends of share gain in U.S. moist snuff as well as category mix headwinds in Scandinavia broadly continued.

ZYN 仍然是關鍵的業績驅動因素，因為它在美國的銷量增長了 66%，再次取得了驕人的業績，反映出全國範圍內的積極勢頭。在無菸領域的其他地方，近期美國濕鼻煙市場份額增長的趨勢以及斯堪的納維亞半島的品類混合逆風總體仍在繼續。

We continue to be very pleased with the positive impact of Swedish Match on our company, and I would like to thank the team for delivering such a great performance.

我們仍然對瑞典火柴對我們公司產生的積極影響感到非常高興，我要感謝該團隊提供瞭如此出色的表現。

Now let's examine ZYN's recent U.S. performance in more detail. Exceptional progress continued in Q3 with an increase in 12 months rolling shipment volume growth of plus 52% compared to Q3 2022 and plus 14% sequentially. Impressively, ZYN Q3 category volume share grew to 70.8%, which is plus 4.7 points higher year-on-year and plus 2.5 points sequentially. Retail value share remained strong at around 76%, highlighting ZYN's premium positioning and superior brand equity.

現在讓我們更詳細地了解 ZYN 最近在美國的表現。第三季繼續取得出色進展，與 2022 年第三季相比，12 個月滾動出貨量成長了 52%，比上一季成長了 14%。令人印象深刻的是，ZYN 第三季品類銷售份額成長至 70.8%，較去年同期增加 4.7 個百分點，較上季增加 2.5 個百分點。零售價值份額保持在 76% 左右的強勁水平，凸顯了 ZYN 的高端定位和卓越的品牌資產。

This accelerated growth reflects progressive increase in distribution and a further broad step-up in nationwide store velocity as the category gained strong traction with adult nicotine users for its convenience and pleasurable experience.

這種加速成長反映了分銷的逐步增加以及全國商店速度的進一步廣泛提升，因為該類別因其便利和愉悅的體驗而受到成年尼古丁使用者的強烈關注。

Now focusing on IQOS starting with user growth. We estimate there were 27.4 million IQOS users as of September 30. This represents an increase of 3.7 million user versus 1 year ago and 0.2 million compared to Q2 2023. As shown on the right-hand side of this slide, the third quarter of each year typically experiences slower user growth due to the seasonal influences in the calculation.

現在重點關注IQOS，從用戶成長入手。我們估計，截至9 月30 日，IQOS 用戶數量為2740 萬。這意味著與一年前相比，用戶數量增加了370 萬，與2023 年第二季度相比，用戶數量增加了20 萬。如本投影片右側所示，每季的第三季由於計算中的季節性影響，一年中的使用者成長通常會較慢。

Both new user registration and device sales to legal aged smokers continue to advance strongly and at levels broadly in line with Q2 when users grew by 1.4 million sequentially. Also, as in prior years, we expect a substantial acceleration in user growth in the fourth quarter.

新用戶註冊和合法老年吸菸者的設備銷售繼續強勁增長，其水平與第二季度基本一致，當時用戶環比增長了 140 萬。此外，與往年一樣，我們預期第四季用戶成長將大幅加速。

Moving now to IQOS in the Europe region, where our third quarter HTU share increased by plus 1.3 points to 8.6% of total cigarette and HTU industry volume. Continued share gains include the growing take-up of ILUMA which is available to over 80% of IQOS user in the region. In addition to Q3 launches in Denmark and the U.K., ILUMA was launched in Poland, which like Japan, is a market with high competitive activity. We look forward to driving its performance here over the coming quarters.

現在轉向歐洲地區的 IQOS，第三季我們的 HTU 份額增加了 1.3 個百分點，佔捲菸和 HTU 行業總量的 8.6%。持續的份額成長包括 ILUMA 的使用量不斷增長，該地區超過 80% 的 IQOS 用戶都可以使用該產品。除了在丹麥和英國推出第三季外，ILUMA 還在波蘭推出，與日本一樣，波蘭也是一個競爭激烈的市場。我們期待在未來幾季提升其業績。

While sequential share is, as usual, optically affected by the seasonality of the cigarette category, adjusted IMS volumes continued to exhibit robust sequential growth and reached a record high on a 4-quarter moving average. This reflects strong year-on-year growth of plus 16% in Q3 despite limited growth in Ukraine. We expect strong IMS volume growth to continue in Q4 with a corresponding increase in market share.

雖然環比份額一如既往地受到捲菸類別季節性的明顯影響，但調整後的 IMS 銷量繼續表現出強勁的環比增長，並在 4 季移動平均值上達到歷史新高。這反映了儘管烏克蘭成長有限，但第三季年增 16% 的強勁勢頭。我們預計第四季度 IMS 銷售將持續強勁成長，市佔率也會相應增加。

In the EU, the majority of member states have transposed a delegated directive withdrawing the heated tobacco product exemption from the characterizing flavor ban international law. The ban in those markets will be effective as of October 23 and the remaining markets are expected to adopt in 2024. As previously mentioned, we are adjusting our HTU portfolio as required in line with this transposition and while short-term volatility is possible, including in year-end trend inventories, we do not expect significant change in the structural growth of the category.

在歐盟，大多數成員國已經轉移了一項授權指令，從特徵性香料禁令國際法中撤回加熱菸草產品的豁免。這些市場的禁令將於 10 月 23 日生效，其餘市場預計將於 2024 年實施。如前所述，我們正在根據這種轉換的要求調整我們的 HTU 投資組合，儘管短期波動是可能的，包括在年末趨勢庫存方面，我們預期該品類的結構性成長不會發生重大變化。

In Japan, IQOS ILUMA celebrated its second anniversary of the national launch in September and continues to exhibit strong growth due to excellent conversion, consumer satisfaction and retention rates. Adjusted total tobacco share for our HTU brands increased by plus 3 points in Q3 year-over-year to 26.6%. Importantly, adjusted in-market sales volume again grew sequentially on a 4-quarter moving average, reaching over 10 billion units for the first time in Q3 '23 as IQOS outgrew the heat-not-burn category.

在日本，IQOS ILUMA 於 9 月慶祝了全國上市兩週年，並由於出色的轉換率、消費者滿意度和保留率而繼續表現出強勁的成長。第三季度，我們的 HTU 品牌調整後的菸草總份額年增了 3 個百分點，達到 26.6%。重要的是，調整後的市場銷售再次按 4 季移動平均線環比增長，在 23 年第三季度首次超過 100 億台，因為 IQOS 的增長超過了加熱不燃燒類別。

In addition to this excellent consumer trend, our Q3 shipment to Japan also benefited from further switching back to sea freight during the quarter. This shift is now substantially progressed, and we expect a more normalized rate of HTU shipments in Q4.

除了這種良好的消費趨勢外，我們第三季對日本的出貨也受惠於本季進一步轉向海運。這項轉變現已取得實質進展，我們預計第四季 HTU 出貨量將更加正常化。

Our premium priced TEREA HTUs and mainstream price SENTIA HTUs continued to grow individually and in aggregate, reaching Q3 offtake shares of around 18% and 8%, respectively, despite the impact of seasonality. Our Japan city shares also continue to progress with a number reaching over 30%. We continue to see a long runway of growth in Japan over the coming quarters.

儘管受到季節性影響，我們的優質 TEREA HTU 和主流價格 SENTIA HTU 的單獨和總體繼續增長，第三季度的承購份額分別達到 18% 和 8% 左右。我們的日本城市份額也不斷進步，達到了30%以上。我們繼續看到日本未來幾季的長期成長。

In addition to strong IQOS gains in developed countries, we continue to see very promising growth in low and middle-income market. This slide highlight the selection of Q3 key city offtake share across markets in Eastern Europe, Africa, Asia and Latin America. We see notable ongoing success in Egypt with Cairo offtake share up plus 3.5 points to almost 9%. And in Santo Domingo as our leading Latin America city with offtake share around 8%.

除了已開發國家的強勁IQOS成長之外，我們繼續看到中低收入市場的成長前景非常光明。本投影片重點介紹了東歐、非洲、亞洲和拉丁美洲市場第三季主要城市承購份額的選擇。我們看到埃及持續取得顯著成功，開羅承購份額增加了 3.5 個百分點，達到近 9%。聖多明哥是拉丁美洲領先的城市，承購份額約為 8%。

Most promising is a 3.1% offtake share in urban Jakarta, where IQOS is only available via the IQOS Club members program. We continue to see robust offtake volume growth across this important future market despite seasonal effect on sequential share metrics.

最有希望的是在雅加達市區獲得 3.1% 的承購份額，在那裡 IQOS 只能透過 IQOS 俱樂部會員計劃購買。儘管季節性因素對連續份額指標產生了影響，但我們仍然看到這個重要的未來市場的承購量強勁增長。

I'd like to spend a moment now on Combustibles where our portfolio delivered strong organic net revenue growth of plus 6.2% in Q3 and plus 5.6% year-to-date. This reflects another strong quarter of pricing with notable contribution from Germany and Indonesia. With better-than-expected pricing in Q3 of plus 9% and plus 8.6% year-to-date, we now forecast a full year increase of plus 8% to plus 8.5%.

我現在想花點時間談談 Combustibles，我們的投資組合在第三季度實現了強勁的有機淨收入增長，增長了 6.2%，今年迄今增長了 5.6%。這反映出另一個季度的定價強勁，其中德國和印尼的貢獻顯著。由於第三季的定價優於預期，年初至今分別上漲 9% 和 8.6%，我們現在預測全年將成長 8% 至 8.5%。

Our cigarette category share grew by plus 0.6 points in Q3 and plus 0.3 points year-to-date. This reflects notable contribution from Egypt, Poland and Turkey resulting in only modest volume declines. Our leadership in Combustibles helps to maximize switching to smoke-free products and we have fully achieved our ongoing objective of stable category share over the last 2 years despite the impact of IQOS cannibalization.

我們的捲菸類別份額在第三季增加了 0.6 個百分點，今年迄今成長了 0.3 個百分點。這反映出埃及、波蘭和土耳其的顯著貢獻，導致銷量僅略微下降。我們在可燃產品領域的領先地位有助於最大限度地轉向無菸產品，儘管受到 IQOS 蠶食的影響，但我們在過去兩年中完全實現了穩定品類份額的持續目標。

This Combustible share performance, combined with the structural growth of IQOS supports robust overall market share gains. We captured plus 0.9 points of international cigarette and HTU share in Q3 and plus 0.7 points year-to-date. As covered at Investor Day, our superior share of smoke-free product gives us a formidable platform for sustainable market share gains with superior unit economics.

這種可燃股票的表現，加上 IQOS 的結構性成長，支持了整體市場份額的強勁成長。我們在第三季度獲得了國際捲菸和 HTU 份額的+0.9 個點，今年迄今則增加了 0.7 個點。正如投資者日報所報道的，我們無菸產品的卓越份額為我們提供了一個強大的平台，以卓越的單位經濟效益實現可持續的市場份額增長。

Now let me update you briefly on our exciting innovation and expansion activities which will be critical as we aim to reach over to smoke-free net revenue by 2030, including 60 markets over 50% and 40 markets of over 75%. As we covered at Investor Day, the global rollout of IQOS ILUMA continues. We launched ILUMA in 4 markets in Q3, reaching 27 markets in total, which represents around 75% of our IQOS business by volume. ILUMA continues to generate excellent growth with upgrades from existing users and new user acquisition. With a further 6 market launch already this month, we expect ILUMA to be present in around 50 markets by year-end and to essentially complete the rollout next year.

現在，讓我向您簡要介紹我們令人興奮的創新和擴張活動，這些活動對於我們的目標是到2030 年實現無菸淨收入至關重要，其中包括60 個市場超過50% 的市場和40 個市場超過75% 的淨收入。正如我們在投資者日報道的那樣，IQOS ILUMA 的全球推廣仍在繼續。第三季度，我們在 4 個市場推出了 ILUMA，總計達到 27 個市場，約占我們 IQOS 業務量的 75%。透過現有用戶的升級和新用戶的獲取，ILUMA 繼續實現出色的成長。隨著本月又在 6 個市場推出，我們預計 ILUMA 將在年底前進入約 50 個市場，並在明年基本完成推出。

As also mentioned during Investor Day, superior tobacco taste is critical to our ongoing success. And we are further exploring complex and new taste spaces to enhance our tobacco flavor experience. On the other hand of the consumer preference spectrum, we will be offering 0 tobacco consumable for nontobacco flavor discovery under the LEVIA brand. Just as nicotine pouches are an evolution from snus to make the overall category relevant to more adult smokers, LEVIA is a similar nontobacco evolution for IQOS as we broaden our offering to increase switching away from combustibles.

正如在投資者日期間提到的，卓越的菸草口味對於我們持續成功至關重要。我們正在進一步探索複雜和新的口味空間，以增強我們的菸草風味體驗。另一方面，根據消費者偏好，我們將在 LEVIA 品牌下提供零菸草消費品，用於發現非菸草風味。正如尼古丁袋是鼻煙的演變，以使整個類別與更多成年吸菸者相關，LEVIA 是 IQOS 的類似非菸草演變，因為我們擴大了產品範圍，以增加對可燃物的戒斷。

The U.S. represents the most significant opportunity to drive accelerated smoke-free growth at both the top and bottom line. We are continuing to invest behind ZYN and readying our organizational and commercial capabilities for the launch of IQOS in Q2 2024 and a scaled up rollout with ILUMA once authorized. We remain on track to file for IQOS ILUMA's PMTA and MRTPA this month.

美國是推動無菸收入和利潤加速成長的最重要機會。我們將繼續投資 ZYN，並準備我們的組織和商業能力，以便在 2024 年第二季推出 IQOS，並在授權後與 ILUMA 一起擴大推出。我們仍有望在本月申請 IQOS ILUMA 的 PMTA 和 MRTPA。

The international expansion of nicotine pouches remain a key mid- to long-term focus notably for ZYN as the world's leading brand. During the third quarter, we relaunched ZYN in Switzerland and following positive regulatory developments, rolled out ZYN in Finland.

尼古丁袋的國際擴張仍然是中長期的關鍵焦點，特別是對於 ZYN 作為世界領先品牌。第三季度，我們在瑞士重新推出了 ZYN，並在監管積極發展後，在芬蘭推出了 ZYN。

Moving now to sustainability. Addressing the product health impact of combustible product by switching adult smokers to smoke-free products, which are designed and marketed for adult use remains our most critical priority. This transformation is at the core of our strategy as we become a more sustainable business with accelerated growth and returns over time.

現在轉向可持續發展。透過將成年吸菸者轉為專為成人使用而設計和銷售的無菸產品來解決可燃產品對產品健康的影響仍然是我們最重要的優先事項。這種轉變是我們策略的核心，因為我們將成為更具永續性的企業，隨著時間的推移，成長和回報會加速。

With regard to tackling climate change, I am delighted to report that the Science Based Target Initiative validated our forest land and agriculture emission reduction target, recognition achieved by very few companies. We pledged to reduce this absolute Scope 3 emission by 33% by 2030 which is significant given that Scope 3 remain the most challenging aspect of any company's decarbonization strategy.

關於應對氣候變化，我很高興地報告，科學目標倡議驗證了我們的林地和農業減排目標，這是極少數公司獲得認可的。我們承諾在 2030 年將範圍 3 的絕對排放量減少 33%，鑑於範圍 3 仍然是任何公司脫碳策略中最具挑戰性的方面，這一點意義重大。

In September, almost 20,000 employees in over 60 countries participated in World Cleanup Day, showcasing our commitment to raising awareness around littering as part of our wider strategy to reduce post-consumer waste.

9 月，來自 60 多個國家的近 20,000 名員工參加了世界清潔日，展示了我們致力於提高人們對亂丟垃圾的認識，這是我們減少消費後廢物的更廣泛戰略的一部分。

We have long expressed our support for more rigor in sustainability-related reporting and welcome recent moves towards greater consistency in standards under strong governance framework. As part of our ongoing work, we provided responses to consultation requests from the International Sustainability Standard Board to help shape the development of their work plan and update to the SASB standards. PMI continues to be recognized by organizations such as the World Business Council for sustainable development as a leader in nonfinancial reporting.

我們長期以來一直表示支持更嚴格的永續發展相關報告，並歡迎最近在強有力的治理框架下提高標準一致性的舉措。作為我們正在進行的工作的一部分，我們對國際永續發展標準委員會的諮詢請求做出了回應，以幫助制定他們的工作計劃並更新 SASB 標準。 PMI 繼續被世界永續發展工商理事會等組織認可為非財務報告領域的領導者。

We have much more to share on our sustainability efforts and transformation. Jacek will be presenting at the CECP CEO Investor Forum in New York on November 14, and the event is open to all those who would like to attend.

關於我們的永續發展努力和轉型，我們有更多內容可以分享。 Jacek 將於 11 月 14 日在紐約舉行的 CECP CEO 投資者論壇上發表演講，該活動向所有願意參加的人開放。

To conclude today's presentation, we continue to deliver sustainable growth through our transformation. The powerful trajectory of our smoke-free business give us confidence in strong full year results built on volume growth, positive mix, pricing and cost management. Considering the headwinds faced, notably in the first part of the year, we believe this speaks strongly to the fundamentals of our growth model.

最後，我們將繼續透過轉型實現永續成長。我們無菸業務的強勁發展軌跡讓我們對基於銷售成長、積極組合、定價和成本管理的強勁全年業績充滿信心。考慮到所面臨的阻力，特別是今年上半年，我們相信這有力地說明了我們成長模式的基本面。

Notably, the outstanding performance of IQOS and ZYN continues, further enhancing our position as the global smoke-free champion. We have exciting plans to accelerate our smoke-free future in both the U.S., the largest smoke-free market and internationally. We are confident in our 2024-2026 CAGR target of plus 6% to plus 8% organic top line growth, plus 8% to plus 10% organic operating income growth and plus 9% to plus 11% currency-neutral adjusted EPS growth.

值得注意的是，IQOS和ZYN的出色表現仍在繼續，進一步鞏固了我們作為全球無菸冠軍的地位。我們制定了令人興奮的計劃，以加速美國（最大的無菸市場）和國際上的無菸未來。我們對2024-2026 年複合年增長率目標充滿信心，即有機營收成長6% 至8% 以上，有機營業收入成長8% 至10% 以上，貨幣中立調整後每股盈餘成長9% 至11 % 以上。

We also have a clear guiding objective with our new ambition to be substantially smoke-free by net revenue in 2030 as another key milestone on our journey towards the smoke-free future.

我們還有一個明確的指導目標，即在 2030 年實現淨收入大幅無菸的新目標，這是我們邁向無菸未來之路的另一個重要里程碑。

And finally, with our latest dividend raise in September, we have delivered 16 years of continuous dividend increase since our 2008 spin, despite the ups and downs of economic and currency cycle. This translates to a cumulative 183% increase and CAGR of 77.2% since 2008, with an annualized dividend of $5.20. As this demonstrates, our commitment to shareholder return through a progressive dividend remain steadfast. Thank you very much, and we are now extremely happy to answer your questions.

最後，隨著我們在 9 月的最新一次股息上調，儘管經濟和貨幣週期有起有伏，但我們自 2008 年重組以來已經實現了 16 年的股息持續增長。這意味著自 2008 年以來累計成長 183%，複合年增長率為 77.2%，年化股息為 5.20 美元。這表明，我們透過累進股息對股東回報的承諾仍然堅定。非常感謝您，我們現在非常樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Vivien Azer with TD Cowen.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將由 Vivien Azer 和 TD Cowen 提出。

So I'd like to start with ZYN, please. Clearly, a very impressive result with continued acceleration in the top line. Emmanuel, you talked about distribution gains. So I was hoping you could just level set how much more runway do you see from a distribution standpoint? Certainly, this remains a velocity-driven story, I would think. So that would be question one.

所以我想從 ZYN 開始。顯然，這是一個非常令人印象深刻的結果，收入持續加速。伊曼紐爾，你談到了分配收益。所以我希望你能從分配的角度設定你能看到多少跑道？當然，我認為這仍然是一個速度驅動的故事。這是問題一。

And then the follow-up will just be on the margins, which came in way ahead of expectations. You've called out very strong cost management. That's clearly apparent. And I'd love to hear your perspective on the durability of the current margin level for ZYN, please.

然後後續行動將只是邊緣，這遠遠超出了預期。您提出了非常強大的成本管理。這是顯而易見的。我很想聽聽您對 ZYN 目前保證金水準的持久性的看法。

Thank you, Vivien. So on ZYN and of course, every quarter will bring its new, I would say, load of news. And I think we have been seeing in Q3 another great quarter of acceleration in the velocity that means that where the brand is already even nicely present, we see the consumer offtake accelerating. It just show that this product are becoming more relevant for a growing number of adult user and that's great news.

謝謝你，薇薇安。所以在 ZYN 上，當然，每個季度都會帶來新的，我想說，大量的新聞。我認為我們在第三季看到了速度的另一個大幅加速，這意味著在該品牌已經很好地呈現的地方，我們看到消費者的購買量正在加速。它只是表明該產品與越來越多的成年用戶變得越來越相關，這是個好消息。

There is also the geographical dimension on which we elaborated at the time of our Investor Day and which is showing that while the brand has a certain level of presence on the western part of the U.S., it doesn't mean that it isn't going to grow it further, but it's, of course, bigger than the rest of the country. There seems to be a trajectory that is saying that the rest of the country is going to adopt it progressively, and that is indeed giving also a nice, I would say, trajectory on further growth in the coming quarters and years, of course. We talk here about probably years of very nice growth.

還有我們在投資者日時詳細闡述的地理維度，這表明雖然該品牌在美國西部地區有一定程度的影響力，但這並不意味著它不會發展進一步發展，但當然，它比該國其他地區較大。似乎有一條軌跡表明，該國其他地區將逐步採用它，當然，我想說，這確實也為未來幾季和幾年的進一步成長提供了良好的軌跡。我們在這裡談論的是可能幾年的非常好的成長。

So it's great that we have behind ZYN, 2 engine, which is really where the brand is already with the biggest presence. We don't see any decrease in the consumer adoption, and we see increase, what we call the velocity. And we see progressively, I think, as well quarter-after-quarter, this geographical momentum building up as expected.

因此，我們支援 ZYN 2 引擎真是太棒了，這確實是該品牌已經擁有最大影響力的地方。我們沒有看到消費者採用率有任何下降，而且我們看到了成長，我們稱之為速度。我認為，我們每季都逐步看到這種地理勢頭如預期般增強。

Now on the margin, yes, it's true that this growth of ZYN is extremely positive when it comes to margin. Of course, we are going to continue to invest behind this growth potential in the U.S., and we will put the necessary commercial resources to make sure that we maximize the growth potential. But I said it, ZYN is really best-in-class in terms of gross margin for our product in -- at the group level. I'm talking about ZYN in the U.S., but globally nicotine pouch enjoys nice margin, but ZYN the U.S. is best in class. And that means, of course, that growing ZYN is an excellent news for top line, but also for bottom line.

現在就利潤而言，是的，就利潤而言，ZYN 的成長確實是非常積極的。當然，我們將繼續投資於美國的這種成長潛力，我們將投入必要的商業資源，以確保我們最大限度地發揮成長潛力。但我說過，就我們產品的毛利率而言，ZYN 在集團層級確實是同類中最好的。我說的是美國的 ZYN，但全球尼古丁袋裝的利潤率很高，但美國的 ZYN 是同類產品中最好的。當然，這意味著 ZYN 的成長對於營收和利潤來說都是一個好消息。

And I think that in the growth of the adjusted earnings per share over the quarter, this is absolutely visible.

我認為，從本季調整後每股盈餘的成長來看，這一點是絕對可見的。

Your next question will come from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題將來自高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。

I had a question on your HTU shipment volume for the year. You mentioned you're now expecting to come in within the lower half of your guidance. And then you highlighted a few reasons for this, including the uncertainty related to inventory levels in Europe given the upcoming flavor ban. So could you give us a sense of maybe where inventory levels are at right now? And then maybe how many quarters do you expect some of this unwind to happen? And then just thinking about the trade, is this being offset in any way with -- I'm just thinking about Combustible cig inventories? Or really, how is the trade responding to this ban?

我對你們今年的 HTU 出貨量有疑問。您提到您現在預計會在指導的下半部分內。然後您強調了造成這種情況的幾個原因，包括考慮到即將實施的風味禁令，與歐洲庫存水準相關的不確定性。那麼您能否讓我們了解一下目前的庫存水準？那麼您預計這種放鬆會在幾個季度發生？然後想想貿易，這是否會以任何方式抵消——我只是在考慮可燃香煙庫存？或者說，業界對這項禁令有何反應？

Yes, Bonnie. So I think it's, of course, something on which we will be able to elaborate once we have been landing the year after the ban put in place on where the country are implementing it at the end of October, it is not the case in all countries.

是的，邦妮。所以我認為，當然，一旦我們在 10 月底實施禁令的一年後我們就可以詳細說明這一點，但事實並非如此。國家。

One of the questions we have is with some reduction with some SKUs, does it mean that they are globally going to reduce the level of inventory and can this impact the level of shipment toward the year-end. So I think we're flying that because, of course, we continue to be with a view that this ban should not ultimately bring major disruption, and we've been elaborating on many occasions on why we think that this ban is not going to ultimately change the dynamic in the category. But it's so that we have some question mark on the lending for the reason I've just been describing on the level of inventory. That's why we are -- I mentioned we need to make sure that we are as clear as possible on the possible, I would say, temporary effect that this could generate.

我們面臨的問題之一是，某些 SKU 的減少是否意味著它們將在全球範圍內降低庫存水平，這是否會影響年底的出貨量。所以我認為我們正在這樣做，因為當然，我們仍然認為這項禁令最終不會帶來重大破壞，而且我們已經在許多場合闡述了為什麼我們認為這項禁令不會最終改變該類別的動態。但由於我剛才描述的庫存水平，我們對貸款有一些疑問。這就是為什麼我們——我提到我們需要確保我們盡可能清楚地了解這可能產生的暫時影響。

Now when I look at our shipments for the year. So we are clarifying the lending area. When I look at the '23 performance versus '22 performance, that will mean even in the low end of the bracket, an acceleration in terms of growth versus the growth that we experienced in '23 in terms of incremental billion of cig being sold. And of course, shipments are, as we know, what we are selling, what is probably more important is the consumer offtake. And here, frankly, we see the momentum continuing with no change. And I think the Q3 number where we have seasonality. But when we look at Q3, what we expect for Q4, we are very much with the same strong 15% to 16% IMS growth. And we are in line with what we have experienced last year.

現在，當我查看我們今年的出貨量時。所以我們正在澄清貸款領域。當我比較'23年的表現與'22年的表現時，這意味著即使在低端，與我們在'23年所經歷的增量十億香煙銷量的增長相比，增長也有所加速。當然，正如我們所知，我們銷售的是出貨量，更重要的是消費者的購買量。坦白說，我們看到這種勢頭仍在繼續，沒有任何變化。我認為第三季的數據具有季節性。但當我們看第三季時，我們對第四季的預期是，我們的 IMS 成長同樣強勁，為 15% 至 16%。我們的情況與去年的經驗是一致的。

So that shows -- and by the way, it's a percentage on a higher base. So in fact, in volume, that means that the volume growth is higher. So we don't see any change in the momentum. We see a lot of strength in the growth, and that's visible in the volume, in the market share that we are reporting today with Q3.

這表明——順便說一句，這是一個更高基礎上的百分比。所以實際上，從數量上來說，這意味著數量增長更高。所以我們沒有看到勢頭有任何變化。我們看到成長的強勁勢頭，這從我們今天報告的第三季度的數量和市場份額中可以看出。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just in terms of another question, I just wanted to ask on your new IQOS users in the quarter. It did come in a bit light. You highlighted that this is normal quarterly seasonal trend. So maybe could you talk through that a bit further for us? And then maybe what other drivers might be impacting this? And essentially, how much visibility do you have in terms of Q4. You mentioned you expect a substantial acceleration in user growth this quarter. So I just kind of wanted to verify what you're seeing so far in October gives you that confidence. And is it realistic to assume a typical $1 million average quarterly run rate moving forward?

好的。這很有幫助。然後就另一個問題而言，我只想問一下你們本季的新 IQOS 用戶。它確實有點輕。您強調這是正常的季度趨勢。那麼您能否為我們進一步討論一下呢？那麼也許還有哪些其他驅動因素可能會影響這一點？從本質上講，您對第四季度的能見度有多少。您提到您預計本季用戶成長將大幅加速。所以我只是想驗證一下您在 10 月到目前為止所看到的情況是否能為您帶來信心。假設未來平均季度運轉率為 100 萬美元是否為現實？

Sure, Bonnie. So actually, last year, we were flat in terms of user acquisition. So we're doing better this year than last year in terms of user evolution. And I think we are in line with what we experienced in '21, if I remember well, I think we've been sharing the numbers.

當然，邦妮。事實上，去年我們在用戶獲取方面持平。所以我們今年在用戶發展方面比去年做得更好。我認為我們與 21 年的經驗一致，如果我沒記錯的話，我認為我們一直在分享這些數字。

So that's a typical pattern for Q3 which is due to the methodology on how we calculate the user growth. And I think we have today the -- as I said, the element of the momentum that we are seeing on people buying the device and people registering, that is pointing to the fact that we see the same momentum, that there is no change. And last year, we finished the year with a strong user growth, and we target to do the same this year. So I have to say it's remarkably stable in the strength, if I can use this expression. And as I said, we could be at the end of the day, in fact, growing in shipments and in IMS volume more than last year.

這是第三季的典型模式，這是由我們計算用戶成長的方法決定的。我認為，正如我所說，我們今天看到人們購買設備和人們註冊的勢頭要素，這表明我們看到了同樣的勢頭，沒有任何變化。去年，我們以強勁的用戶成長結束了這一年，我們的目標是今年也能做到這一點。所以如果我能用這個表達的話，我不得不說它的強度非常穩定。正如我所說，事實上，我們的出貨量和 IMS 數量最終可能會比去年增長更多。

So the percentage is about the same. Again, the basis being higher, it means that we're going to increase in terms of volume differential year-on-year.

所以比例是差不多的。同樣，基差較高，這意味著我們的銷量差異將比去年同期增加。

Our next question comes from Gaurav Jain with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain。

So I have a question on the U.S. cigar side of things. So clearly, the FDA and this rule-making process to ban flavored cigars to the OMB. So first, how will you address that? And secondly, if I look at the reported numbers on cigars, it seems that the revenue had a pretty steep decline this quarter. Can you help us understand what's happening there?

我有一個關於美國雪茄方面的問題。很明顯，FDA 和這項規則制定程序禁止向 OMB 出售調味雪茄。首先，你將如何解決這個問題？其次，如果我看一下雪茄的報告數據，本季的收入似乎出現了相當大的下降。你能幫助我們了解那裡發生了什麼事嗎？

So on the trend, we've been increasing price. I mean the cigar had been below a certain threshold for a bit of time and we decided to move above this threshold, which was $1.14. And there is a time for adaptation and that explains why on volume we are impacted this year. But I don't think it reflects what's going to happen in the long term where we continue to have very good brands and with a lot of consumer support.

因此，按照趨勢，我們一直在提高價格。我的意思是，雪茄的價格已經低於某個閾值一段時間了，我們決定突破這個閾值，即 1.14 美元。有一個適應的時間，這解釋了為什麼我們今年在數量上受到了影響。但我不認為這反映了從長遠來看會發生什麼，我們將繼續擁有非常好的品牌並得到大量消費者的支持。

Frankly, on the flavor, will you allow me not to speculate. I mean, I don't know exactly what are the plans. What is it going to be, how long it would take, what is decided, and again, nobody definitely knows what could be decided, how long it's going to take to be implemented. So I'm not going to speculate at this stage on what would be our answer and what we would do because I'm not going to be relevant on anything that could be seen at that stage.

坦白說，關於味道，請允許我不要猜測。我的意思是，我不知道具體的計劃是什麼。它會是什麼，需要多長時間，決定了什麼，同樣，沒有人確切知道可以決定什麼，需要多長時間才能實施。因此，我不會在這個階段推測我們的答案是什麼以及我們會做什麼，因為我不會與該階段可能看到的任何事情相關。

Sure. And then my second question is on FY '24 EPS and what's the base we should use to project that? Because I heard a comment that the Argentinian balance sheet revaluation impact, which is about $0.06 that will not recur in FY '24. So we should add back to FY '23 EPS? And then could you also just comment on Russia exposure and this year's EPS?

當然。然後我的第二個問題是關於 24 財年每股收益，我們該用什麼基礎來預測它？因為我聽到有評論說阿根廷資產負債表重估影響約為 0.06 美元，在 24 財年不會再出現。那我們應該加回 23 財年每股盈餘嗎？那麼您能否評論一下俄羅斯的風險敞口和今年的每股盈餘？

Yes. So this is a technical comment on Argentina. Gaurav, you're absolutely right. This is a ForEx impact that is a kind of one-off, if you want, because that is impacting this year but next year, we're not starting with the base on our profit that is decreased by that. It's just something that you need to book on your balance sheet exposure. But what is taken is taken. I mean, of course, depending on the evolution of the Argentinian peso in the future. But I don't have anything to say at this stage. I think I just wanted to clarify this technical impact.

是的。這是對阿根廷的技術評論。高拉夫，你說得完全正確。如果你願意的話，這是一種一次性的外匯影響，因為這會影響今年，但明年，我們不會從因此而減少的利潤基礎開始。這只是您需要在資產負債表風險中記入的內容。但被拿走的就是被拿走的。當然，我的意思是，這取決於阿根廷比索未來的演變。但現階段我沒什麼好說的。我想我只是想澄清這種技術影響。

On Russia, frankly, versus when we made 3 weeks ago, there is nothing new to report on the Russian situation. This is a market where, of course, we are being very significantly impacted on the profit reported in dollars because of the very strong weakening of the Russian ruble versus the dollar. And that is one of the, if not the biggest impact this year on ForEx. That is, of course, I would say, mechanically reducing our exposure to Russia in our profit. That's mechanical. And we are -- as we already said, we are seeing very limited growth in Russia, that is a market where as we've been saying, we've been reducing our commercial activity and the total market where we're investing and that is translating, of course, on the performance of this market.

關於俄羅斯，坦白說，與我們三週前製作時相比，關於俄羅斯局勢沒有什麼新的報導。當然，由於俄羅斯盧布兌美元大幅貶值，我們在這個市場上以美元報告的利潤受到了非常重大的影響。這即使不是今年對外匯市場的最大影響，也是其中之一。當然，我想說的是，機械地減少了我們對俄羅斯的利潤敞口。那是機械的。正如我們已經說過的，我們看到俄羅斯的成長非常有限，正如我們一直所說的那樣，我們一直在減少我們的商業活動和我們投資的整個市場，當然，正在翻譯這個市場的表現。

Our next question comes from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的帕梅拉·考夫曼。

I have a question on the Combustible business. It's been exceeding expectations, and you've taken up your guidance for volumes on the Combustible strength. Can you talk about what's driving the performance in this category, despite the acceleration in pricing growth?

我有一個關於可燃業務的問題。它超出了預期，您已經接受了可燃強度卷的指導。儘管價格成長加速，您能否談談推動該類別表現的因素是什麼？

Sure, happy to do that. So yes, Combustible is being resilient. We have a decline, but it's a modest decline in Q3. Let's be clear, this is driven by a few market where we see a nice share gain. One is Turkey, the other one is Egypt. As you can imagine, they are not market with great profitability per stick.

當然，很高興這樣做。所以，是的，可燃物具有彈性。我們確實有所下降，但第三季的下降幅度較小。讓我們明確一點，這是由我們看到份額成長良好的一些市場所推動的。一個是土耳其，一個是埃及。正如你能想像的那樣，它們並不是每根棍子都能帶來巨大利潤的市場。

So let's be very clear we have a nice performance on Combustible on volume, to some extent on revenue. All the great work that we are doing now on increasing OI and growing margin is first and foremost, driven by our smoke-free product, IQOS first, ZYN second and then by CC. So yes, great performance when it comes to volumes, great performance versus the decline that we may have seen in the past few years. Good impact on revenue. We've been doing good on price increase as well. But remember, that's a category in which we've seen a lot of inflation on our cost and part of the growth is generated by market with low profitability.

因此，我們要明確的是，我們在 Combustible 上的銷售量（某種程度上在收入上）表現出色。我們現在在增加 OI 和增加利潤方面所做的所有偉大工作首先是由我們的無菸產品推動的，首先是 IQOS，其次是 ZYN，然後是 CC。所以，是的，就銷量而言，表現出色，與過去幾年我們可能看到的下滑相比，表現出色。對收入有良好影響。我們在價格上漲方面也做得很好。但請記住，在這一類別中，我們的成本出現了很大的通貨膨脹，而部分成長是由利潤率較低的市場產生的。

Okay. And then on ZYN, when do you expect to hear a decision from the FDA on ZYN's PMTA applications? And how are you thinking about the prospects for ZYN flavor approvals, considering the FDA has recently issued unfavorable decisions around flavored e-cig products.

好的。那麼關於 ZYN，您預計什麼時候會聽到 FDA 對 ZYN PMTA 申請的決定？考慮到 FDA 最近發布了有關調味電子煙產品的不利決定，您如何看待 ZYN 調味劑批准的前景。

Look, we discussed that 3 weeks ago and there is nothing new on the PMTA. We don't know what's going to be the time line. It's at the discretion of the FDA, and we see that a lot of things are taking significant time to the decision to be taken. Let me make a couple of comments on this PMTA process, nevertheless. The first one is that we have with our snus product, with general and MRTPA of Level 1. So the FDA has been recognizing that this product are representing a reduced risk versus combustible cigarettes and we're very clear as benefit claimed.

看，我們三週前就討論過這個問題，PMTA 上沒有什麼新內容。我們不知道時間表是什麼。這是由 FDA 自行決定的，我們發現很多事情都需要很長時間才能做出決定。不過，讓我對這個 PMTA 流程發表幾點評論。第一個是我們的鼻煙產品，一般和 MRTPA 為 1 級。因此，FDA 已經認識到該產品與可燃香煙相比風險較低，而且我們非常清楚所聲稱的好處。

We believe that by nature, this product should be considered as equally good, if not better. And we believe that they have the potential to really convince millions of smokers to move away from combustible cigarettes to have a better way of consuming nicotine. So we are really hopeful that the FDA will really take that as a very important element and that it's important to make this product available for nicotine users in the U.S.

我們認為，從本質上講，該產品即使不是更好，也應該被認為同樣好。我們相信，它們有潛力真正說服數百萬吸煙者遠離可燃香煙，以更好的方式消費尼古丁。因此，我們真的希望 FDA 能夠真正將其視為一個非常重要的因素，並且讓美國的尼古丁使用者能夠使用該產品非常重要。

Now on the flavor because I think that was probably one of your questions. For the same reason, we believe it is important that the consumer has the choice of flavor, if it is a reason for them to move away from combustible cigarettes to this better product. Having said that, we have the example of a ban on flavor in California. And the reality is that there was an adjustment during a couple of months, and then the growth resumed without flavor in California and we are today very, very significantly, I think we are close to 30% above the pre-ban level in California. So it shows that these products are extremely attractive and resonate with a nicotine user, with the smokers and with other nicotine users beyond the flavor, which is very good news.

現在談談味道，因為我認為這可能是你的問題之一。基於同樣的原因，我們認為，如果消費者能夠選擇口味，這是他們放棄可燃捲菸而轉向這種更好產品的原因，那麼這一點很重要。話雖如此，我們還是有加州禁止調味品的例子。現實情況是，幾個月內進行了調整，然後加州又恢復了增長，但沒有任何風味，而今天我們的增長非常非常顯著，我認為我們比加州禁令前的水平高出近 30%。因此，這表明這些產品極具吸引力，並能與尼古丁使用者、吸菸者以及其他除口味以外的尼古丁使用者產生共鳴，這是一個非常好的消息。

Our next question comes from Matt Smith with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Matt Smith。

If we take the full year organic profit margin guidance, the down 150 basis points or so and the year-to-date performance, along with your commentary around kind of a flattish year-over-year performance in the fourth quarter, can you talk about some of the factors in the fourth quarter. I understand there's a lot of crosswinds here, but you get the benefit of Swedish Match rolling into the organic base. And then you mentioned you've completed the shift to -- back to sea freight for HTU consumables in Japan. So can you talk about some of the headwinds to margin in the fourth quarter? Maybe some detail around your expectations around the incremental ILUMA launches or any other factors would be helpful.

如果我們考慮全年有機利潤率指引、下降 150 個基點左右以及年初至今的業績，以及您對第四季度同比業績持平的評論，您能談談嗎關於第四季度的一些因素。我知道這裡有很多側風，但你會受益於瑞典火柴滾入有機基地。然後您提到您已經完成了日本 HTU 消耗品海運的轉換。那麼您能談談第四季利潤率面臨的一些不利因素嗎？也許一些有關您對 ILUMA 增量發布的期望或任何其他因素的詳細資訊會有所幫助。

Sure. So indeed, there are going to be some mix impact in Q4 and notably on the devices as we are rolling out ILUMA in a significant number of new markets. We are also launching some new innovation in some markets on the ILUMA device. That's going to generate, I would say, significantly accelerated activity on our device sales, and that is having a negative impact on the margin. So that's going to be clearly one element.

當然。因此，確實，第四季將會產生一些混合影響，尤其是在我們在大量新市場推出 ILUMA 的設備上。我們也在一些市場上針對 ILUMA 設備推出了一些新的創新。我想說，這將顯著加速我們的設備銷售活動，並對利潤率產生負面影響。所以這顯然是一個要素。

Then on top of that, there will be certainly some investment during the fourth quarter, and that is having an impact on the margin. And then you can have some mix coming from geographies and other mix element. But that is what is today behind this guidance of around flat. I mean it doesn't mean that it's going to be a big positive. But today, we are seeing this around stability situation for our OI margin year-on-year organically for Q4.

除此之外，第四季肯定會有一些投資，這會對利潤率產生影響。然後你可以有一些來自地理位置和其他混合元素的混合。但這就是今天這種持平指引背後的原因。我的意思是，這並不意味著這將是一個很大的積極因素。但今天，我們看到第四季 OI 利潤率較去年同期保持穩定。

And just as a follow-up, when you talk about investments in the fourth quarter, should we think of that as a sequential step-up in investment relative to the level in the third quarter? Or is that more of a year-over-year higher investment compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. And I'll leave it there.

作為後續，當您談論第四季度的投資時，我們是否應該將其視為相對於第三季度水準的投資連續上升？或者說，與 2023 年第四季相比，這更多的是同比更高的投資。我就將其留在那裡。

Yes, I think you should expect certainly a continuation of a significant level of investment as we are accompanying the growth of our star product, IQOS and ZYN. That should probably mean quarter-on-quarter, I would say, sequential increase and still a significant growth versus last year.

是的，我認為您應該期待我們繼續進行大量投資，因為我們正在伴隨著我們的明星產品 IQOS 和 ZYN 的成長。我想說，這可能意味著季度環比增長，並且與去年相比仍然有顯著增長。

Our next question comes from Owen Bennett with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自傑弗里斯的歐文·貝內特。

I just wanted to ask also ZYN, very, very strong in the U.S., but I wanted to ask about pouches ex U.S. So volumes only flat versus 2Q for [Scandinavic]. You mentioned you also had relaunches in Switzerland and Finland during the quarter. So I was just wondering how you see the near-term outlook for volumes ex-U.S. Do you expect any meaningful acceleration over the next several quarters? And then the second question linked to that, there's some increasing chatter now that the EU is looking to potentially ban pouches as part of the new TPD. Does this impact how you think about investing in the space ex-U.S. near term?

我只是想問 ZYN，它在美國非常非常強大，但我想問一下美國以外的袋子，所以 [Scandinavic] 的銷量與第二季度持平。您提到本季您還在瑞士和芬蘭重新推出了產品。所以我只是想知道您如何看待美國以外地區的近期銷售前景您預計未來幾季會出現任何有意義的加速嗎？與此相關的第二個問題是，現在有一些越來越多的討論，歐盟正在考慮將禁止袋子作為新 TPD 的一部分。這是否會影響您對投資美國以外領域的看法？短期？

Yes. So we have this situation in Scandinavia on nicotine portfolio, product is already present, mainly in Sweden, where it's a nicely growing market. That's not where we enjoy the biggest market share. So we are globally year-to-date, growing on nicotine pouch in Sweden, but they are not -- we're not talking about big volumes here as we have our strong leadership in Sweden on snus.

是的。因此，我們在斯堪的納維亞半島的尼古丁產品組合上遇到了這種情況，產品已經存在，主要是在瑞典，那裡是一個成長良好的市場。這不是我們享有最大市場佔有率的領域。因此，今年迄今為止，我們在全球範圍內，在瑞典種植尼古丁袋裝產品，但情況並非如此——我們在這裡談論的不是大產量，因為我們在瑞典鼻煙方面擁有強大的領導地位。

Outside Scandinavia, we are just at the beginning. So yes, we are launching. So we explained that we've been launching in Switzerland, Finland as well, even in the Nordics. There will be more market to come. Now it's going to be hopefully nice, but it's going to be small versus what we see in the U.S. You see what I mean. So it's going to be difficult to see given the strength that we are seeing in the U.S. to see volume outside the U.S. showing their strengths.

在斯堪的納維亞半島之外，我們才剛開始。所以是的，我們正在啟動。因此我們解釋說，我們也在瑞士、芬蘭，甚至北歐推出了產品。未來將會有更多的市場。現在希望情況會很好，但與我們在美國看到的情況相比，它會很小。你明白我的意思。因此，鑑於我們在美國看到的實力，很難看到美國以外的交易量顯示出其優勢。

Now yes, it's going to add very nicely additional numbers. But again, it's not going to be huge compared to the U.S. We'll see with TPD if there is any decision taken around nicotine pouch. Of course, if there is anything decided in that respect, which we don't know today that may influence the way we invest on this category in the EU. But frankly, at this stage, it's too early to say because we don't know what's going to be discussed, if anything on that one. And therefore, we'll see.

現在是的，它將添加非常好的額外數字。但同樣，與美國相比，這個數字不會很大。我們將看看 TPD 是否就尼古丁袋做出任何決定。當然，如果在這方面有什麼決定，我們今天還不知道，這可能會影響我們在歐盟投資這個類別的方式。但坦白說，在現階段，現在說還為時過早，因為我們不知道要討論什麼，如果有的話。因此，我們拭目以待。

Our last question will come from Andrei Condrea with UBS.

我們的最後一個問題將由瑞銀集團的安德烈·康德里亞（Andrei Condrea）提出。

Just one from me, please. And I know it's a bit of a topic to [Joe], but the GLP-1 drug, obviously, there's been talk about it having anti-addictive properties. Do you think this could be an issue for PMI in the long term, rather?

請只給我一份。我知道這對 [Joe] 來說是一個主題，但顯然，GLP-1 藥物有抗成癮特性。您認為從長遠來看這對 PMI 來說會是一個問題嗎？

Frankly, I mean, I've been hearing things about that. I mean I know what the assumption is, everybody going to be under GLP-1, and therefore, they're going to drive massive change in consumer behavior. And I'm not even able to tell you what would be the impact for somebody who is a nicotine user and is going to take GLP-1. I'm not sure we have any serious study on human behavior on that, that is going to say that.

坦白說，我的意思是，我一直聽到有關這方面的事情。我的意思是，我知道假設是什麼，每個人都將遵守 GLP-1，因此，他們將推動消費者行為發生巨大變化。我甚至無法告訴您對於尼古丁使用者並打算服用 GLP-1 的人會有什麼影響。我不確定我們是否對人類行為進行過認真的研究，只能這麼說。

So first of all, I don't know how broad the usage of this medicine as drug is going to be. Second, I don't know what's going to be the potential impact. So I'm not sure that today we can say anything relevant that makes sense on that topic.

首先，我不知道這種藥物作為藥物的用途會有多廣泛。其次，我不知道會產生什麼潛在影響。因此，我不確定今天我們是否可以就該主題說任何有意義的相關內容。

And there are no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call back to Emmanuel for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我將把電話轉回伊曼紐爾，讓他作結語。

This is James Bushnell, Vice President of Investor Relations. That concludes our call today. Thank you again for joining us. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact the Investor Relations team. Thank you again, and have a great day.

我是投資者關係副總裁詹姆斯布希內爾 (James Bushnell)。我們今天的電話會議到此結束。再次感謝您加入我們。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係團隊。再次感謝您，祝您有美好的一天。

Thank you, talk to you soon. Bye-bye.

謝謝你，很快再和你談談。再見。

This does conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。