菲利普莫里斯國際 (PM) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Philip Morris International, Inc., 2024 second-quarter results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加菲利普莫里斯國際公司 2024 年第二季業績電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, James Bushnell, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communications. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係和金融傳播副總裁詹姆斯布希內爾 (James Bushnell)。請繼續。

Welcome. Thank you for joining us. Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2024 second-quarter results. The press release is available on our website at pmi.com. A glossary of terms including the definition for smoke-free products as well as adjustments, other calculations, and reconciliation to the most directly comparable US GAAP measures for non-GAAP financial measures cited in this presentation are available in Exhibit 99.2 to the company's Form 8-K dated July 23, 2024 and on our Investor Relations website.

歡迎。感謝您加入我們。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含有關 2024 年第二季業績的詳細資訊。新聞稿可在我們的網站 pmi.com 上取得。公司表格 8 的附錄 99.2 提供了術語表，包括無菸產品的定義以及本簡報中引用的非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的美國 GAAP 指標的調整、其他計算和調節-K 日期為2024 年7月23 日以及我們的投資者關係網站。

Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results. I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements.

今天的言論包含前瞻性陳述和對未來結果的預測。我請您注意今天的簡報和新聞稿中揭露的前瞻性和警示性聲明，以審查可能導致實際結果與預測或前瞻性聲明有重大差異的各種因素。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Emmanuel Babeau, our Chief Financial Officer. Over to you, Emmanuel.

現在我很高興向大家介紹我們的財務長 Emmanuel Babeau。交給你了，伊曼紐。

Thank you, James, and welcome, everyone. Our business delivered another outstanding performance in the second quarter of 2024. Our categories were strong across the board to deliver a record H1 on organic topline growth and on organic operating income growth, excluding the pandemic recovery year of 2021. The strong underlying momentum of IQOS continued in Q2 with shipment and adjusted in-market cell volume growth above or in line with our expectation. This reflects another quarter of strong progress in Japan and robust fundamentals in Europe despite the volatility of the characterizing flavor ban. With pricing, manufacturing efficiency, and scale benefit, the expanding profit contribution of IQOS is driving excellent growth for PMI.

謝謝詹姆斯，歡迎大家。我們的業務在 2024 年第二季度再次表現出色。第二季的出貨量和調整後的市場電池銷售成長持續高於或符合我們的預期。這反映了日本又一個季度的強勁進展和歐洲強勁的基本面，儘管特色風味禁令存在波動。憑藉定價、製造效率和規模效益，IQOS不斷擴大的利潤貢獻正在推動PMI的出色成長。

ZYN continued its impressive growth trajectory with Q2 US volumes growing by over plus 50% despite recent supply tensions and increased pricing. In addition to IQOS and ZYN, I am pleased to report building multi-category momentum. While still early days, VEEV has already become the closed pod leader in five European markets and is firmly on the path to profitability, while international nicotine pouch volumes grew over plus 60% in H1, matching US growth rates. This progress of smoke-free product is reflected in a rapidly growing consumer base with around 36.5 million estimated adult users as of June 30, and our products now available across 90 markets worldwide.

儘管近期供應緊張且價格上漲，ZYN 仍繼續保持令人印象深刻的成長軌跡，第二季美國銷量成長了 50% 以上。除了 IQOS 和 ZYN 之外，我很高興地報告正在建立多品類勢頭。儘管還處於早期階段，VEEV 已成為五個歐洲市場的封閉式煙彈領導者，並堅定地走上盈利之路，而上半年國際尼古丁袋銷量增長了 60% 以上，與美國的增長率相當。無菸產品的進步體現在快速成長的消費群體上，截至 6 月 30 日，估計約有 3,650 萬成年用戶，我們的產品現已遍布全球 90 個市場。

Our combustible business also overdelivered with a return to gross margin expansion ahead of plan in Q2 after two years of significant inflationary headwinds. This was driven by stable H1 volumes and category share despite robust pricing in addition to cost efficiencies. This broad-based delivery translated into double-digit organic operating income growth with significant margin expansion. As we have outlined previously, delivering robust growth in the long term is a key priority, and we are taking proactive steps on pricing and cost efficiency to mitigate currency headwinds.

在經歷了兩年的嚴重通膨逆風之後，我們的可燃業務也超額交付，在第二季提前恢復了毛利率擴張。這是由於上半年銷售量和類別份額保持穩定，儘管定價強勁且成本效益高。這種廣泛的交付轉化為兩位數的有機營業收入成長和顯著的利潤率擴張。正如我們之前概述的那樣，實現長期強勁成長是首要任務，我們正在定價和成本效率方面採取積極措施，以減輕貨幣不利因素。

This is clearly evident in our H1 adjusted diluted earnings per share delivery of mid-single-digit growth despite a currency headwind of over 12%, as essentially all of the expected full-year impact fell in the first half.

儘管匯率逆風超過 12%，但我們上半年調整後的攤薄每股收益實現了中個位數增長，這一點顯而易見，因為基本上所有預期的全年影響都在上半年下降。

Following this exceptional first-half performance, we are increasing our 2024 full-year forecast on all organic dimension and for adjusted diluted EPS on both a currency neutral and US dollar basis. This reflects our strong H2 outlook with accelerating adjusted IMS growth for IQOS, sequentially IOS in volumes, and a stepped-up rate of USD EPS growth at prevailing exchange rates.

繼上半年表現出色後，我們提高了對所有有機維度以及在貨幣中性和美元基礎上調整後稀釋每股收益的 2024 年全年預測。這反映了我們強勁的下半年前景，IQOS 調整後的 IMS 成長加速，IOS 銷售連續成長，以及以現行匯率計算的美元每股收益成長加快。

Looking at our headline financials. Strong total shipment volume growth of plus 2.8% drove Q2 organic net revenue growth of plus 9.6% or plus 5.6% in dollar terms. Robust topline growth, positive smoke-free margin mix, and ongoing cost efficiencies enabled us to deliver adjusted diluted EPS of $1.59. This represents plus 10.6% growth, excluding a larger-than-expected unfavorable currency variance of $0.18, which includes a small transactional impact from exchange rate volatility at quarter end. This better-than-expected ex-currency performance reflect the improving profitability of ICOS, ZYN, combustible, which I will come back to.

看看我們的整體財務數據。總出貨量強勁成長 2.8% 以上，推動第二季有機淨收入成長 9.6% 以上，以美元計算成長 5.6% 以上。強勁的營收成長、積極的無菸利潤率組合以及持續的成本效率使我們能夠實現 1.59 美元的調整後攤薄每股收益。這意味著成長 10.6%，不包括超出預期的 0.18 美元不利貨幣差異，其中包括季末匯率波動對交易產生的小幅影響。這種好於預期的貨幣外表現反映了ICOS、ZYN、combustible獲利能力的提高，我稍後會談到這一點。

Looking now at the first half overall, our volumes grew by plus 3.2% and organic net revenue by plus 10.2%, our highest growth since the 2008 spin. Strong performance from both smoke-free and combustible drove operating income growth of plus 17% with margin expansion of 230 basis points organically and plus 7.1% growth in dollar terms. We expect continued robust OI growth on both a reported and an organic basis in the second half.

現在來看看上半年的整體情況，我們的銷量成長了 3.2%，有機淨收入成長了 10.2%，這是我們自 2008 年轉型以來的最高成長率。無菸和可燃產品的強勁表現推動營業收入成長 17% 以上，利潤率有機成長 230 個基點，以美元計算成長 7.1% 以上。我們預計下半年 OI 將在報告和有機基礎上持續強勁成長。

H1 adjusted diluted EPS grew by an impressive plus 16.8% in constant currency and by plus 4% in dollar terms. The $0.38 unfavorable H1 currency variance includes $0.08 of nonrecurring transactional impact from Egypt and Russia.

上半年調整後攤薄每股收益以固定匯率計算成長了 16.8%，以美元計算成長了 4%。上半年 0.38 美元的不利貨幣差異包括埃及和俄羅斯 0.08 美元的非經常性交易影響。

Focusing now on volume, total shipment growth in both the quarter and H1 overall reflect smoke-free share gains in a resilient international industry which grew by more than 1% in both periods, even excluding Oral and E-Vapor. Q2 HTU shipments of 35.5 billion units exceeded our prior outlook, notably driven by continued strong performance in Japan, robust underlying growth in Europe, and promising growth in newer markets such as Indonesia. In addition to underlying momentum, Q2 saw an incremental phasing impact of around 0.5 billion units, primarily related to Red Sea disruption. Q2 HTU adjusted IMS volume grew by plus 10.2% in line with our expectation. This includes the impact of the characterizing flavor ban in Europe, most notably in Italy this quarter.

現在關注銷量，本季和上半年的總出貨量增長總體反映了無菸市場在具有彈性的國際行業中的份額增長，該行業在兩個時期的增長均超過1%，甚至不包括Oral 和E-Vapor。第二季 HTU 出貨量達到 355 億台，超出了我們先前的預期，這主要是受到日本持續強勁的業績、歐洲強勁的基礎成長以及印尼等新興市場的良好成長的推動。除了潛在的動力外，第二季度還出現了約 5 億台的增量階段性影響，這主要與紅海中斷有關。第二季 HTU 調整後 IMS 銷量成長了 10.2%，符合我們的預期。這包括歐洲特色風味禁令的影響，尤其是本季在義大利。

Total smoke-free adjusted in-market sales volume grew plus 11.2% in Q2 and plus 13.1% in H1. This includes our oral smoke-free portfolio powered by ZYN with Q2 pouch unit volumes up by plus 20%. US ZYN shipment grew by plus 50% to 35.1 (sic - 135.1) million can. This does not include the promising results of our E-Vapor business where volume grew strongly to the equivalent of 0.7 billion units on a year-to-date basis.

無菸調整後的市場總銷售第二季成長 11.2%，上半年成長 13.1%。這包括我們由 ZYN 提供支援的口腔無菸產品組合，第二季袋裝單位銷售量增加了 20%。美國 ZYN 出貨量成長了 50%，達到 35.1（原文如此 - 1.351）百萬罐。這還不包括我們 E-Vapor 業務的可喜成果，今年迄今銷量強勁增長至相當於 7 億件。

Cigarette shipment grew by plus 0.4%, with notable positive contribution from Turkey and North Africa. This reflects a stable category share excluding market mix despite step-up pricing. With such a positive H1 volume performance, we are raising our full-year forecast for total cigarette HTU and Oral unit volumes to plus 1% to plus 2% which would mark our fourth consecutive year of volume growth.

捲菸出貨量增加了 0.4%，其中土耳其和北非的貢獻顯著。這反映出儘管定價有所提高，但不包括市場組合的類別份額仍保持穩定。鑑於上半年銷售表現如此積極，我們將捲菸 HTU 和口服單位銷售的全年預測上調至 + 1% 至 + 2%，這將標誌著我們的銷量連續第四年增長。

The power of our multi-category smoke-free transformation and recovery in combustible are clearly illustrated on this slide as both areas contributed strongly to double-digit organic OI growth of plus 12.5% for the group in Q2. Smoke-free continued its excellent momentum with plus 18% organic growth in net revenue and plus 22% in gross profit, driving plus 220 basis points organic growth margin expansion. This reflects the strong performance of ZYN and the growth and scale effect of IQOS, including manufacturing productivities, and an increasing albeit smaller contribution from VEEV. Expanding smoke-free gross margin continue to widen the gap versus combustible gross margin, enhancing the very positive mixed effect of our transformation. However, combustible growth margin expansion is also a key objective.

這張投影片清楚地說明了我們多類別無菸改造和可燃物回收的力量，因為這兩個領域為第二季集團有機 OI 成長 12.5% 的兩位數成長做出了巨大貢獻。 Smoke-free 持續保持良好的勢頭，淨收入有機成長 18%，毛利成長 22%，推動有機成長率成長 220 個基點。這反映了 ZYN 的強勁業績以及 IQOS 的成長和規模效應，包括製造生產力，以及 VEEV 的貢獻雖然較小但不斷增加。無菸毛利率的擴大持續拉大與可燃毛利率的差距，增強了我們轉型的非常正面的混合效應。然而，可燃的成長邊際擴張也是關鍵目標。

After seven quarters of contraction, we are very pleased to report plus 50-basis-point expansion and gross profit growth of plus 5.5% on an organic basis, providing a meaningful contribution to total PMI profitability. This reflect resilient volume despite very strong pricing in addition to ongoing efficiencies and reduced headwinds on our COGS, not withstanding continued tobacco leaf inflation. We also expect combustible gross margin expansion in H2.

經過七個季度的收縮後，我們非常高興地報告，有機成長超過 50 個基點，毛利成長超過 5.5%，為 PMI 總獲利能力做出了有意義的貢獻。這反映了儘管定價非常強勁，但銷售仍然有彈性，此外，儘管菸葉價格持續上漲，效率持續提高，我們的銷貨成本的阻力也減少了。我們也預計下半年毛利率將出現明顯擴張。

Combined with a very strong first quarter, the year-to-date picture is even more compelling with double-digit organic net revenue, gross profit, and OI growth. This is driven by the same dynamic as Q2 with an impressive plus 390 basis point gross margin expansion and plus 29% gross profit growth for our smoke-free business.

加上第一季的強勁表現，今年迄今的情況更加引人注目，有機淨收入、毛利和 OI 均實現兩位數成長。這是由與第二季度相同的動力推動的，我們的無菸業務毛利率增長了 390 個基點，令人印象深刻，毛利增長了 29%。

Our H1 revenue performance again demonstrates the powerful drivers of our financial model with an unparalleled combination of positive volumes, robust pricing, and the very favorable category mix of our smoke-free products. As mentioned, volume grew by plus 3.2%, pricing contributed plus 6 points of growth including plus 8.3 pricing on combustible and around plus 2% on smoke-free. Smoke-free category mix added plus 2.5 points to the top line, reflecting the higher net revenue per unit of IQOS and ZYN.

我們上半年的收入表現再次證明了我們財務模式的強大驅動力，將積極的銷售、穩健的定價以及我們無菸產品的非常有利的類別組合無與倫比地結合在一起。如前所述，銷量成長了 3.2%，定價貢獻了 6 個百分點的成長，其中可燃品定價成長了 8.3%，無菸定價增加了 2% 左右。無菸類別組合使營收增加了 2.5 個百分點，反映出 IQOS 和 ZYN 的單位淨收入較高。

While still small, VEEV also contributed positively to the overall mix. I also note that Oral smoke-free product added plus 2 points to organic net revenue progression, underlying the continued accretion from the Swedish Match acquisition. As in recent quarters, geographic mix was negative. This is primarily due to combustible where volumes increasing is due to lower margin markets where smoke-free alternative are small or not available, with higher-margin markets over-indexed to cannibalization. We expect this dynamic to be less impactful in 2024 than last year.

雖然規模仍然很小，但 VEEV 也對整體組合做出了積極貢獻。我還注意到，口服無菸產品為有機淨收入成長增加了 2 個百分點，這是瑞典火柴收購帶來的持續成長的基礎。與最近幾季一樣，地理組合呈負成長。這主要是由於可燃品的銷售增加是由於利潤率較低的市場，其中無菸替代品很少或無法獲得，而利潤率較高的市場則過度依賴於蠶食。我們預計這種動態在 2024 年的影響力將不如去年。

Now let's focus on the mechanics behind our H1 margin delivery. Gross margin increased organically by 140 basis points and by 80 basis points in dollar terms. This was driven by our higher margin smoke-free business, pricing, and ongoing productivity savings across the value chain. As expected, SG&A cost growth step-up in Q2 increasing 9.8% organically after a very modest increment in Q1 due to planned phasing of commercial spend. The resulting 5.8% organic increase in H1 was below the rate of topline growth, driving plus 1 percentage point of margin expansion with our successful back-office cost program able to mitigate some of the investment step-up. With a range of important commercial activities in Q3, we expect SG&A to remain elevated but continue to target an organic increase below the rate of net driven growth for the year.

現在讓我們專注於上半年保證金交付背後的機制。毛利率有機成長了 140 個基點，以美元計算成長了 80 個基點。這是由我們更高的無菸業務利潤、定價以及整個價值鏈中持續的生產力節省所推動的。正如預期的那樣，由於計劃分階段商業支出，第一季的 SG&A 成本增幅非常小，第二季的 SG&A 成本自然增加了 9.8%。上半年 5.8% 的自然成長低於營收成長率，推動利潤率成長 1 個百分點，而我們成功的後台成本計畫能夠減輕部分投資的增加。由於第三季有一系列重要的商業活動，我們預計銷售、管理費用將保持在較高水平，但繼續目標是低於今年淨驅動成長率的有機成長。

I am pleased to report we delivered over $300 million in H1 gross cost efficiency across both COGS and SG&A as we proactively drive bottomline growth. We expect an acceleration in H2 savings, notably from manufacturing as we progress towards our $2 billion target for '24, '26 period. The combination of these factors drove a plus 230-basis-point expansion in our organic operating income margin. Despite a significant H1-skewed currency headwind, adjusted OI margin were stable on a dollar basis.

我很高興地報告，隨著我們積極推動利潤成長，上半年我們在 COGS 和 SG&A 方面實現了超過 3 億美元的總成本效率。我們預計，隨著我們在 2024 年和 26 年期間實現 20 億美元的目標，下半年的節省將加速，尤其是來自製造業的節省。這些因素的結合推動我們的有機營業利潤率擴大了 230 個基點以上。儘管上半年貨幣逆風較大，調整後的持股利潤率以美元計算仍保持穩定。

Moving into our smoke-free business. We estimate there were 36.5 million adult user of PMI smoke-free product as of June 30, reflecting an additional 3.2 million during H1. This includes an estimated 30.8 million IQOS user, 5.2 million Oral users, and 0.8 million VEEV users. The increase in both total and IQOS user was broad-based with notable progress in Japan, Europe, and newer growth markets such as Indonesia, in addition to seeing strong traction with legalized nicotine user in the US. Our smoke-free products are now present in 90 markets following recent launches of IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV.

進入我們的無菸業務。我們估計，截至 6 月 30 日，PMI 無菸產品的成年用戶為 3,650 萬，上半年增加了 320 萬。其中包括估計 3,080 萬 IQOS 用戶、520 萬 Oral 用戶和 80 萬 VEEV 用戶。總用戶和 IQOS 用戶的成長基礎廣泛，除了在美國合法化尼古丁用戶的強勁吸引力之外，日本、歐洲和印尼等新興成長市場也取得了顯著進展。繼最近推出 IQOS、ZYN 和 VEEV 後，我們的無菸產品現已進入 90 個市場。

Focusing now on IQOS in Europe where fundamental dynamics are developing very well including the user growth I just mentioned. First, we see robust recoveries in market where the characterizing flavor ban has passed the initial adjustment phase. Second, there is continued excellent growth in market where IQOS is already well-established such as Portugal, Hungary, and Greece. Last, new growth leader markets are emerging with accelerating momentum in Germany, Spain, Bulgaria, and Romania, in addition to recovery in Poland following the launch of DELIA.

現在關注歐洲的 IQOS，那裡的基本動態發展得非常好，包括我剛才提到的用戶成長。首先，我們看到市場強勁復甦，特色香料禁令已經過了最初的調整階段。其次，葡萄牙、匈牙利、希臘等IQOS已成熟的市場持續強勁成長。最後，德國、西班牙、保加利亞和羅馬尼亞等新的成長領先市場正在崛起，勢頭加速，此外波蘭在推出 DELIA 後也出現復甦。

Our Q2 HTU share increased by 0.8 points year on year despite the impact of the flavor ban. Due to the usual seasonal factors and a resilient combustible market, Q2 share was sequentially below Q1. HTU-adjusted IMS volume demonstrated robust growth, growing by 0.8 billion units sequentially to reach 12.9 billion on a four-quarter moving average. As expected, adjusted in-market sales growth of plus 6.8% was slower than in Q1 due to higher comparison and the initial impact of the characterizing flavor ban, notably in Italy. Growth, excluding Italy, was close to 10%.

儘管受到風味禁令的影響，我們第二季的 HTU 份額同比增長了 0.8 個百分點。由於通常的季節性因素和有彈性的可燃物市場，第二季的份額連續低於第一季。經過 HTU 調整的 IMS 銷量表現出強勁增長，以四個季度的移動平均數計算，連續增長 8 億台，達到 129 億台。正如預期的那樣，由於較高的比較以及特色風味禁令的初步影響（尤其是在義大利），調整後的市場銷售成長 6.8% 以上，低於第一季。不包括義大利在內，成長率接近 10%。

The impact of the ban is progressing in line with our prior estimate in the majority of market, though the implementation in Italy during Q2 was slightly more pronounced than anticipated. This was primarily driven by earlier sell-through of affected SKUs and concurrent pricing. It is important to note this is a transitory dynamic, and I'm pleased to report recovery in markets such as Greece, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, and Romania, where the ban was implemented previously following an initial period of consumer adjustment. Indeed, despite an uncertain outlook in Ukraine, we anticipate an acceleration in Europe adjusted IMS growth in the second half. This is supported by the planned step-up in commercial activity behind IQOS including the introduction of DELIA and LEVIA HTUs to an increasing number of markets.

該禁令的影響進展符合我們先前對大多數市場的估計，儘管第二季度義大利的實施情況比預期稍顯明顯。這主要是由於受影響的 SKU 的早期銷售和並發定價所致。值得注意的是，這是一個暫時的動態，我很高興地報告希臘、捷克共和國、保加利亞和羅馬尼亞等市場的復甦，這些國家的禁令是在消費者調整初期實施的。事實上，儘管烏克蘭的前景不確定，但我們預計下半年歐洲調整後的 IMS 成長將加速。這得歸功於 IQOS 背後計劃加強的商業活動，包括向越來越多的市場推出 DELIA 和 LEVIA HTU。

Another illustration of our continued progress in Europe is in our key city offtake share. Strong gains in city with already IQOS set up such as Budapest, Bucharest, Bratislava, Lisbon, and Sofia, and historically slower growth market such as Madrid, London, and Amsterdam highlight the enduring growth potential in the region.

我們在歐洲持續進步的另一個例子是我們主要城市的承購份額。布達佩斯、布加勒斯特、布拉迪斯拉發、里斯本和索菲亞等已經設立 IQOS 的城市以及馬德里、倫敦和阿姆斯特丹等歷史上增長緩慢的市場的強勁增長凸顯了該地區持久的增長潛力。

Japan demonstrated impressive IQOS growth in the quarter with adjusted HTU IMS growth of plus 12.5%, representing the seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit progression. Adjusted IMS volumes continue to grow sequentially, reaching 10.5 billion units on a four-quarter moving average. Total tobacco share for our HTU brands increased by plus 3.1 points year on year to 29.4% with national offtake share exceeding the impressive milestone of 30% in June. We also maintain offtake share of over 35% in 2Q, despite seasonal factors where the overall category continued to track at over 50% of total offtake and grow sequentially, demonstrating the continued potential in this important market. Our continuous innovation is a key driver of this growth with Q2 seeing a strong step-up in user acquisition following the launch of ILUMA i and further innovative TEREA variants such as capsule consumables.

日本在本季展現了令人印象深刻的 IQOS 成長，調整後的 HTU IMS 成長超過 12.5%，代表連續第七個季度實現兩位數成長。調整後的 IMS 銷售量持續較上季成長，以四個季度的移動平均數計算，達到 105 億台。我們的 HTU 品牌的菸草總份額年增了 3.1 個百分點，達到 29.4%，全國銷售份額在 6 月超過了 30% 的令人印象深刻的里程碑。儘管受到季節性因素的影響，第二季度我們的承購份額仍保持在35% 以上，整體品類繼續保持在總承購量的50% 以上，並且持續增長，這表明了這個重要市場的持續潛力。我們的持續創新是這項成長的關鍵驅動力，在推出 ILUMA i 和進一步創新的 TEREA 變體（例如膠囊耗材）後，第二季度用戶獲取量強勁成長。

Taking a more global view, we continue to see very promising IQOS growth across a broad range of geographies including low and middle income market as highlighted by key city offtake shares, accelerating growth in Indonesia, the world's largest cigarette market by volume excluding China, leads the way with increasing geographic reach and flow of HTU innovation.

從更全球化的角度來看，我們繼續看到IQOS 在包括中低收入市場在內的廣泛地區的成長前景非常光明，主要城市的銷售份額突顯了這一點，印尼是除中國之外全球銷量最大的捲菸市場，其成長加速，領先HTU 創新的地理覆蓋範圍和流量不斷擴大的方式。

Markets across North Africa and the Middle East are also growing weight and source of growth. We show Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia in addition to Egypt, where performance in Cairo remains robust despite recent pricing and a recovery in the combustible market. I am also pleased to report very good progress in the UAE and Jordan. Following the recent launch of ILUMA, growth in Mexico City is very promising. And the East Asian market of South Korea and Malaysia continue to perform well. Also worth highlighting is the successful contribution of Duty Free, where we are increasingly leveraging our multi-category portfolio to expand share in a growing market as travel recovers in Asia.

北非和中東市場的重要性和成長來源也不斷增加。除了埃及外，我們還展示了沙烏地阿拉伯、黎巴嫩、摩洛哥和突尼斯，儘管近期定價和可燃物市場復甦，但開羅的表現仍然強勁。我還很高興地報告阿聯酋和約旦取得了非常好的進展。繼最近推出 ILUMA 後，墨西哥城的成長前景非常光明。韓國、馬來西亞等東亞市場持續表現良好。另外值得強調的是免稅店的成功貢獻，隨著亞洲旅遊業的復甦，我們越來越多地利用我們的多品類產品組合來擴大在不斷增長的市場中的份額。

Our fundamental HTU growth outlook for the year has not changed. H1 adjusted IMS growth of plus 11.4% reflect the strong dynamic I described across Japan, Europe, and global markets, partly offset by the transitory impact of EU flavor ban. Indeed, growth excluding Europe accelerated compared to the last year, and we expect this to continue. However, we see an incremental headwind of around 2 billion unit to our full-year adjusted IMS forecast, the majority of which is driven by the ongoing delay in approval for commercialization in Taiwan, which was previously expected around the midpoint of the year.

我們對今年 HTU 成長的基本預期沒有改變。上半年調整後的 IMS 成長超過 11.4%，反映了我所描述的日本、歐洲和全球市場的強勁動態，但部分被歐盟香料禁令的暫時影響所抵消。事實上，與去年相比，不包括歐洲的成長加速，我們預期這種情況將持續下去。然而，我們認為全年調整後的 IMS 預測將出現約 20 億台的增量逆風，其中大部分是由於台灣商業化審批持續延遲所致，此前預計這一時間將在今年中點左右。

We also factor in an impact of a few hundred million units for a slower recovery from the characterizing flavor ban in Europe, principally in Italy. I would note that our revised full-year forecast for adjusted IMS growth of around 13% represents the same absolute volume increase as 2023 despite the EU headwind. We accordingly forecast full-year HTU shipment volume of around 140 billion units with shipment as usual expected it to be a few billion unit higher than adjusted IMS given continued offtake and user growth.

我們也考慮了歐洲（主要是義大利）特色風味禁令恢復較慢所帶來的數億單位的影響。我要指出的是，儘管歐盟面臨不利因素，但我們對調整後 IMS 增長約 13% 的全年預測進行修訂後，絕對數量增幅與 2023 年相同。因此，我們預計全年 HTU 出貨量約為 1,400 億台，鑑於持續的承購量和用戶成長，預計出貨量將比調整後的 IMS 高出數十億台。

Importantly, we expect very strong H2 delivery in adjusted IMS on both a sequential and year-on-year basis to between plus 14% and plus 15% growth. This is supported by a notable step-up in commercial activity, continued momentum in Japan, and increasingly dynamic global markets. This includes the market I just mentioned and the ongoing acceleration in Duty Free. For Europe, a broadening of growth acceleration in Germany, Spain, the UK, and Romania adds to the ongoing momentum in geographies such as Portugal and Greece. H2 should also see several markets start to rebound from initial flavor ban impact including a gradual recovery in Italy.

重要的是，我們預計調整後的 IMS 下半年交付量將環比和同比增長非常強勁，增長將在 14% 至 15% 之間。這得益於商業活動的顯著成長、日本的持續成長動能以及日益活躍的全球市場。這包括我剛才提到的市場和免稅店的持續加速發展。對歐洲來說，德國、西班牙、英國和羅馬尼亞的成長加速擴大，增強了葡萄牙和希臘等地區的持續成長動能。下半年，一些市場也應該開始從最初的風味禁令影響中反彈，包括義大利的逐步復甦。

Turning now to ZYN. We have very good US progress continued in Q2 with close to plus 70% growth in 12 months rolling shipments. As we shared earlier in the year, strong demand dynamics have created short-term supply chain constraints which has impacted volume growth. As shown on this slide, this has resulted in a temporary slowdown of the category. ZYN's premium positioning and superior brand equity remains strong with ZYN maintaining very robust category volume and value share despite these availability challenges and the recent price increase. We also remain highly focused on marketing ZYN responsibly to prevent unintended use.

現在轉向 ZYN。我們在第二季度繼續在美國取得了非常好的進展，12 個月的滾動出貨量增加了近 70%。正如我們今年稍早分享的那樣，強勁的需求動態造成了短期供應鏈限制，從而影響了銷售成長。如這張投影片所示，這導致該類別暫時放緩。儘管有這些可用性挑戰和最近的價格上漲，ZYN 的高端定位和卓越的品牌資產仍然強勁，ZYN 維持了非常強勁的品類銷售和價值份額。我們也高度重視負責任地行銷 ZYN，以防止意外使用。

We are making good progress on expanding production and continue to expect a gradual improvement through Q3 with sequentially higher volume and for production volumes to meet expected consumer demand during the course of Q4. We expect the ongoing expansion of the existing facility in Kentucky to provide around 900 million cans of capacity for 2025. We also recently announced a planned investment in a new plant in Colorado, which is due to begin preliminary operation by the end of next year. Together, these plans support our US growth ambitions for the coming year.

我們在擴大生產方面取得了良好進展，並繼續預計第三季產量將逐步提高，產量將在第四季度滿足預期的消費者需求。我們預計肯塔基州現有工廠的持續擴建將在 2025 年提供約 9 億罐產能。這些計劃共同支持我們來年美國的成長雄心。

For 2024, we are now forecasting a US shipment range of 560 million to 580 million cans to reflect strongly increasing demand from adult nicotine users and the progress made on increasing our production capacity.

目前，我們預測 2024 年美國的出貨量將達到 5.6 億至 5.8 億罐，以反映成年尼古丁使用者需求的強勁增長以及我們在提高產能方面取得的進展。

I will now take a moment to update you on the international expansion of our smoke-free business. Our multi-category approach is gaining momentum as we unlock new horizon of growth with increasing commercialization of IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV across markets. Our focus strategy for VEEV is showing very good early results. In Europe, closed pods are accelerating within the dynamic E-Vapor categories. We are seeing strong traction of our VEEV 1 product, achieving a number one closed pod position in five markets within the first year of launch including Italy, the Czech Republic, and Romania.

現在我將花一點時間向您介紹我們無菸業務國際擴張的最新情況。隨著 IQOS、ZYN 和 VEEV 跨市場商業化程度的提高，我們開啟了新的成長視野，我們的多品類策略正在獲得動力。我們針對 VEEV 的重點策略顯示出非常好的早期成果。在歐洲，封閉式煙彈在動態電子煙類別中正在加速發展。我們看到我們的 VEEV 1 產品具有強大的吸引力，在推出的第一年就在義大利、捷克共和國和羅馬尼亞等五個市場取得了第一的封閉吊艙位置。

We continue to observe good repeat purchase and conversion rate which is often a challenge for this category. We expect continued volume momentum in H2, supported by ongoing geographic expansion and to reach profitability in Q3.

我們繼續觀察到良好的重複購買率和轉換率，這通常是此類別的挑戰。我們預計，在持續的地理擴張的支持下，下半年銷售將持續成長，並在第三季獲利。

For ZYN, there is a large opportunity outside of the US, which we are working to capture. Our international nicotine pouch volume including the Nordics grew by over plus 60% in H1, matching US in growth. We see promising results in a number of markets, including Mexico, South Africa, Pakistan, and the important UK market, where we have seen strong traction with only limited distribution so far. Our expansion of the IQOS portfolio remained active as we innovate to broaden and enhance our offer for both existing user and switching adult smokers. Further market launches are planned in H2 including DELIA and LEVIA and the new ILUMA i device range which is currently only available in Japan.

對 ZYN 來說，美國以外有很大的機會，我們正在努力抓住這些機會。我們的國際尼古丁袋裝銷售（包括北歐）上半年成長了 60% 以上，與美國的成長相當。我們在許多市場看到了有希望的結果，包括墨西哥、南非、巴基斯坦和重要的英國市場，我們在這些市場上看到了強勁的吸引力，但迄今為止的分銷卻有限。我們對 IQOS 產品組合的擴張仍然活躍，我們不斷創新，擴大和增強我們為現有用戶和轉換的成年吸煙者提供的產品。下半年計劃進一步向市場推出，包括 DELIA 和 LEVIA 以及目前僅在日本銷售的新 ILUMA i 設備系列。

We also continue with our preparation for IQOS and ILUMA in the US, and we are underway with consumer engagement for our first city pilot in Austin, Texas with the IQOS 3 system, which we expect to start in Q4. As mentioned previously, the commercialization will be initially limited in scope and focused on direct activation of select legal-aged smokers in a few cities, allowing us to experiment with different elements of the commercial model. The main purpose is to fine tune our approach and readiness in anticipation of the at-scale launch of ILUMA. We continue to assume an authorization from the FDA in the second half of 2025.

我們也繼續在美國為 IQOS 和 ILUMA 做準備，並且我們正在德克薩斯州奧斯汀進行第一個城市試點，利用 IQOS 3 系統與消費者互動，預計將於第四季度開始。如前所述，商業化最初將在範圍上受到限制，並專注於直接激活一些城市中選定的法定年齡吸煙者，使我們能夠嘗試商業模式的不同要素。主要目的是調整我們的方法和準備情況，以應對 ILUMA 的大規模推出。我們預計將在 2025 年下半年獲得 FDA 的授權。

Focusing now on combustibles, our portfolio delivered robust organic net revenue growth and a very positive profit contribution, as I covered earlier. This reflects resilient volume despite very strong Q2 pricing of plus 8.7% including our proactive action to maximize growth. It is worth noting the large majority of our pricing is derived from regular pricing action unrelated to significant currency devaluation. Factoring a strong H1 and favorable outlook, we now forecast an increased full-year combustible price variance of plus 7% to plus 8%.

正如我之前提到的，我們的投資組合現在專注於可燃物，實現了強勁的有機淨收入成長和非常積極的利潤貢獻。這反映了儘管第二季定價非常強勁，上漲了 8.7%（包括我們為實現成長最大化而採取的積極行動），但成交量仍有彈性。值得注意的是，我們的定價大多源自與貨幣大幅貶值無關的常規定價行為。考慮到上半年的強勁表現和良好的前景，我們現在預測全年可燃物價格差異將增加 7% 至 8%。

Our cigarette category share was stable in H1 and down 0.2 point in Q2 of stable excluding market mix impact. Lower share in Egypt and Indonesia was offset by positive contribution from Turkey, India, and the Europe region, again, despite strong pricing. Our global brand grew category share in the quarter with Marlboro gaining plus 0.3 points to 10.1%.

我們的菸品類市佔率上半年穩定，第二季下降 0.2 個百分點，排除市場組合影響後維持穩定。儘管定價強勁，但埃及和印尼的份額下降被土耳其、印度和歐洲地區的積極貢獻所抵消。我們的全球品牌在本季的類別份額有所增長，其中萬寶路增加了 0.3 個百分點，達到 10.1%。

On a global basis, our leadership in combustible is a critical enabler to maximize switching to smoke-free product, and we target a stable category share over time. As mentioned previously, we evaluate our strategy on a market-by-market basis and have the flexibility to adapt our approach where smoke-free products have already reached critical mass.

在全球範圍內，我們在可燃產品領域的領先地位是最大限度地轉向無菸產品的關鍵推動因素，我們的目標是隨著時間的推移保持穩定的類別份額。如前所述，我們會根據每個市場評估我們的策略，並在無菸產品已經達到臨界品質的情況下靈活地調整我們的方法。

Taking a more holistic view on the business, our transformation and smoke-free journey are backed by a strategy that seeks to embed sustainability in all that we do. We are making strong progress towards our product transformation targets. Our smoke-free products are now available in 90 markets, placing us on track for our aspiration of 100 by 2025. We are also moving nicely towards our objective for low- and middle-income countries to comprise over 50% of smoke-free product market.

從更全面的角度來看待業務，我們的轉型和無菸之旅得到了一項策略的支持，該策略旨在將永續發展融入我們所做的一切中。我們正在朝著產品轉型目標取得重大進展。我們的無菸產品現已銷往 90 個市場，這使我們預計在 2025 年實現 100 個市場的目標。

The rapid growth of our estimated SFP user base, which now stands at around 36.5 million adult users as previously described, is further testament to this progress. With regard to our operation, decarbonization is an important focus area, and we are very pleased to have been awarded the top spot on the Forbes 2024 Net Zero Leader list which highlights the 100 US public companies best positioned to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. It also follows the announcement earlier this year of CDP awarding us a AAA rating for our disclosure and efforts on climate change, forest, and water security. This recognition reflects our continued focus on our sustainability performance and robust reporting as we continue to work towards a smoke-free future.

我們估計的 SFP 用戶群的快速成長（如前所述，目前成人用戶數量約為 3,650 萬）進一步證明了這一進展。就我們的營運而言，脫碳是一個重要的重點領域，我們很高興在《富比士》2024 年淨零領導者排行榜上獲得第一名，該排行榜突出了100 家最有能力減少溫室氣體排放的美國上市公司。今年早些時候，CDP 還宣布授予我們 AAA 評級，表彰我們在氣候變遷、森林和水安全方面的揭露和努力。這項認可反映了我們在繼續努力實現無菸未來的過程中對永續發展績效和穩健報告的持續關注。

This brings me to our outlook for 2024. Following an excellent H1 performance and strong business momentum as we start the second half, we are raising our full-year currency-neutral and US dollar growth forecast. This is supported by accelerated total volume growth and pricing and reflects the very strong outlook for ZYN despite short-term supply constraints, and the increasing profitability of IQOS due to operating leverage, manufacturing efficiencies, and pricing. We continue to target close to $15 billion in smoke-free net revenue for the year.

這讓我想到了我們對 2024 年的展望。這得益於總銷售量和定價的加速成長，反映了儘管存在短期供應限制，但 ZYN 的前景非常強勁，以及 IQOS 由於營運槓桿、製造效率和定價而不斷提高的盈利能力。我們繼續設定今年無菸淨收入接近 150 億美元的目標。

Taking these factors into account and a robust combustible performance. We are increasing our organic net revenue growth forecast to a range of plus 7.5% to plus 9%. In addition to strong topline growth, the positive smoke-free mix effect, combustible recovery, and further cost efficiency enable LC margin expansion. We are accordingly raising our organic operating income growth forecast to plus 11% to plus 13% for the year. We continue to target adjusted gross margin expansion for both smoke-free product and combustible and adjusted OI margin expansion for total PMI, all in both organic and dollar terms.

考慮到這些因素以及強大的可燃性能。我們將有機淨收入成長預測提高至+ 7.5％至+ 9％。除了強勁的營收成長之外，積極的無菸混合效應、可燃物回收和進一步的成本效率也使 LC 利潤率得以擴大。因此，我們將今年有機營業收入成長預測上調至+11%至+13%。我們繼續以無菸產品和可燃產品的調整後毛利率擴張為目標，以及總 PMI 調整後的 OI 利潤率擴張，所有這些均以有機和美元計算。

Consequently and also factoring a lower forecast net financing cost, we are raising our forecast for currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth to plus 11% to plus 13%. This translates into a range of $6.33 to $6.45, including an unfavorable currency impact of $0.34 for the year at prevailing rate. The increased currency headwind versus prior guidance is primarily due to the Q2 impact already described, as shown by the increase in our forecast US EPS growth to plus 5% to plus 7%. The underlying strength of our business and proactive mitigating actions have allowed us to more than compensate for this, and we expect to deliver on our objective of strong growth in dollar terms.

因此，考慮到較低的預測淨融資成本，我們將貨幣中性調整後稀釋每股盈餘成長的預測上調至+ 11％至+ 13％。這相當於 6.33 美元至 6.45 美元的範圍，其中包括以現行匯率計算的今年 0.34 美元的不利貨幣影響。與先前的指引相比，貨幣阻力的增加主要是由於已經描述的第二季度的影響，正如我們預測的美國每股收益增長至+ 5％至+ 7％所示。我們業務的潛在優勢和積極的緩解措施使我們能夠彌補這一點，並且我們期望實現以美元計算強勁增長的目標。

Focusing on the second half in more detail, we expect another strong performance driven by excellent IQOS-adjusted item growth, the progressive improvement in ZYN volume, and continued positive impact from our actions to drive bottomline growth. For Q3, we forecast a record-high quarterly adjusted diluted EPS of $1.77 to $1.82, despite a significant step-up in commercial spending and an unfavorable currency impact of $0.02 at prevailing rates. This is in contrast to a forecast currency tailwind of $0.04 for H2 overall, which enable us to target accelerated US dollar-adjusted diluted EPS growth. We include a table of estimated currency impact by quarter in the appendix.

更詳細地關注下半年，我們預計將在經 IQOS 調整後的產品出色增長、ZYN 銷量逐步改善以及我們推動利潤增長的行動持續產生積極影響的推動下，再次實現強勁業績。對於第三季度，儘管商業支出顯著增加並且按現行匯率計算的不利貨幣影響為 0.02 美元，但我們預計季度調整後攤薄每股收益將創歷史新高，為 1.77 美元至 1.82 美元。這與下半年整體 0.04 美元的貨幣順風預測形成鮮明對比，這使我們能夠實現按美元調整後的稀釋每股收益加速增長的目標。我們在附錄中列出了按季度估計的貨幣影響表。

This Q3 forecast notably reflects another quarter of dynamic growth with HTU shipment of 34 billion, 35 billion units and an acceleration in HTU-adjusted IMS growth. Given expectation for a strong full-year profit delivery, we are forecasting operating cash flow of around $11 billion, which is at the upper end of our previous forecast range at prevailing exchange rate and subject to year-end working capital requirement. We expect this improvement to more than offset an increase in capital expenditure to around $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion as we further accelerate ZYN capacity expansion.

第三季的預測明顯反映了另一個季度的動態成長，HTU 出貨量分別為 340 億和 350 億台，並且 HTU 調整後的 IMS 成長加速。鑑於對全年強勁利潤交付的預期，我們預計營運現金流約為 110 億美元，以現行匯率計算，該現金流量處於我們先前預測範圍的上限，並受到年末營運資本要求的影響。隨著我們進一步加速 ZYN 產能擴張，我們預計這項改善將足以抵銷資本支出增加至約 13 億至 14 億美元的影響。

Last, we continue to target a 0.3 to 0.5 times improvement in our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio in 2024, driven by profit growth and strong cash flow generation. As of June 30, we have already improved our ratio of 3 times on a 12-month trailing basis as compared to 3.2 times at the end of 2023. This represents good progress towards our target of around 2 times by the end of 2026. We intend to reconsider our share repurchase subject to Board approval once we are within sight of this goal.

最後，在利潤成長和強勁現金流產生的推動下，我們繼續目標是到 2024 年將淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率提高 0.3 至 0.5 倍。截至 6 月 30 日，我們已經將過去 12 個月的比率提高了 3 倍，而 2023 年底為 3.2 倍。目標，我們打算重新考慮我們的股票回購，但須經董事會批准。

I will now conclude today's presentation with some closing remarks. The powerful combination of strong underlying business momentum and our own proactive steps enabled us to generate best-in-class growth across key metrics. Our strategy is delivering on volumes, pricing, cash flow, and dollar earnings despite ongoing currency headwinds. The success of our smoke-free transformation is reflected in our remarkable first-half performance with excellent underlying IQOS and ZYN growth, very robust pricing, positive category mix, and step-up cost efficiencies. This puts us firmly on track for an exceptional 2024 with accelerated topline growth and margin expansion.

我現在將以一些結束語結束今天的演講。強大的潛在業務動力和我們自己的積極舉措的強大結合使我們能夠在關鍵指標上實現一流的成長。儘管匯率持續不利，但我們的策略是實現銷售、定價、現金流量和美元收益。我們無菸轉型的成功體現在我們卓越的上半年業績、出色的 IQOS 和 ZYN 基礎成長、非常強勁的定價、積極的品類組合以及不斷提高的成本效率。這使我們堅定地邁向非凡的 2024 年，加速營收成長和利潤率擴張。

Our momentum is broadening across the business with exciting multi-category growth opportunity to further support the delivery of our 2024, 2026 growth targets. We remain highly focused on delivering performance in dollar. And as shown in H1, we are taking measures to mitigate currency headwinds. Finally, we are steadfastly committed to returning cash to our shareholders. Our growth outlook and strong cash flow generation underpins our capital allocation priorities to reinvest behind our rapidly transforming business alongside our progressive dividend policy.

我們的業務動能正在擴大，並提供令人興奮的多類別成長機會，以進一步支持我們實現 2024 年、2026 年成長目標。我們仍然高度關注以美元計價的表現。正如上半年所示，我們正在採取措施緩解貨幣不利因素。最後，我們堅定不移地致力於向股東返還現金。我們的成長前景和強勁的現金流生成支撐著我們的資本配置優先事項，以支持我們快速轉型的業務以及漸進式股息政策的再投資。

Thank you, and we are now very happy to answer your questions.

謝謝您，我們現在很高興回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Gaurav Jain of Barclays.

（操作員指令）巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain。

Two questions from me. One is just on the cigarette pricing algorithm that you have. So if I look at your market share gains, clearly quite impressive, even excluding modern Oral. And if I add that, then you are gaining almost 80-basis-point share right now per annum. So isn't that level of market share gain excessive and suggest that you are not monetizing your cigarette business as much as you should be, and that would mean that increase the pricing growth in cigarettes from 7% to 8% to, let's say, 8% to 10%? Then I have a follow-up.

我有兩個問題。其中之一就是你擁有的香菸定價演算法。因此，如果我看看你們的市佔率成長，顯然相當令人印象深刻，即使不包括現代口腔。如果我加上這一點，那麼您現在每年將獲得近 80 個基點的份額。那麼，這種市場份額增長水平是否過高，是否表明您沒有充分利用捲菸業務實現應有的貨幣化，這意味著將捲菸的價格增長從 7% 提高到 8%，比方說， 8％到10 ％？然後我有一個後續行動。

Thank you, Gaurav, for the question. Look, let's be clear, we can always challenge us on whether we could do even better in terms of price increase. The fact is that we are doing better than what we thought initially. We have this very strong performance, 8.7% price increase for combustible for H1. I think we all know that the inflationary environment is no longer what it was last year. So obviously, this is a very strong performance.

謝謝高拉夫提出的問題。聽著，讓我們明確一點，我們總是可以挑戰我們是否可以在價格上漲方面做得更好。事實是，我們做得比我們最初想像的要好。我們的表現非常強勁，上半年可燃物價格上漲了 8.7%。我想我們都知道通膨環境已經不再是去年那樣了。顯然，這是一個非常強勁的表現。

Please bear in mind, I said it in my preliminary remark, that around 3/4 of that is not coming from inflation in -- oh, sorry, from a price increase in a country with very high inflation. And this 8.7% in Q2 is largely driven by the markets where we are really driving price on a kind of opportunistic basis, building on the strengths of our portfolio and making sure that we are optimizing the potential for price increase. So you can be absolutely sure that this is a very granular work market by market. Each time, as we signal, we take into account what is our position on smoke-free product on this market? What is the impact of increasing price? And I think we can demonstrate that we have a very successful approach on this price increase, so I would tend to believe that we are optimizing this price increase potential in the current environment.

請記住，我在初步評論中說過，其中大約 3/4 不是來自通貨膨脹——哦，對不起，來自通貨膨脹率非常高的國家的價格上漲。第二季的 8.7% 主要是由市場推動的，我們在機會主義的基礎上真正推動價格，建立在我們投資組合的優勢上，並確保我們正在優化價格上漲的潛力。因此，您可以絕對確定這是一個非常精細的工作市場。每次，正如我們所暗示的那樣，我們都會考慮我們對這個市場上的無菸產品的立場是什麼？漲價有什麼影響？我認為我們可以證明我們在提價方面採取了非常成功的方法，因此我傾向於相信我們正在優化當前環境下的漲價潛力。

You mentioned that ZYN capacity will increase to 900 million cans next year. So does it mean that by Q4 of this year, it will be 225 million cans per quarter?

您提到明年ZYN產能將增加至9億罐。那麼是否意味著今年第四季，每季將達到2.25億罐？

Look, Gaurav, I'm confirming that we have the objective to be around 900 million can of production capacity for next year. That's for the full-year 2025. We are gradually improving our capacity, and there is a number of steps that we are taking. I'm not going to elaborate on them. But there are several levers that we are pulling to increase this capacity.

看，Gaurav，我確認我們明年的目標是達到 9 億罐左右的產能。這是 2025 年全年的情況。我不打算詳細說明它們。但我們正在採取多種手段來提高這種能力。

So I would say every quarter versus previous, we are improving the capacity. I'm not going to give a prediction on where we want to be at the end of the year. We believe, given what we see from the potential consumer demand today, that in terms of what we produce (inaudible) in Q4 versus what the consumer offtake could be without restriction, we're going to be good. And then we'll see exactly how we finish in terms of capacity at the end of the year.

所以我想說，與之前相比，每季我們都在提高產能。我不會對今年年底我們的目標做出預測。我們相信，鑑於我們今天從潛在消費者需求中看到的情況，就我們第四季度的生產（聽不清楚）與消費者不受限制的購買量而言，我們將會表現良好。然後我們將在年底看到我們的產能完成情況。

But I think what is more relevant and frankly more important is you have the picture of this 560 million to 580 million cans that is our goal for 2024. You know that we have this capacity for 900 million cans for next year. Let's be clear, it's not a guidance on the volume for next year, we're just giving the capacity on which we are working. And I think with that, you have what is important.

但我認為更相關、坦白說更重要的是，您了解了我們 2024 年目標 5.6 億至 5.8 億罐的情況。讓我們明確一點，這不是對明年產量的指導，我們只是給了我們正在努力的產能。我認為有了這個，你就擁有了重要的東西。

Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

邦妮·赫爾佐格，高盛。

I had a question on your guidance. You raised your top and bottomline growth expectations, but you lowered your HTU shipment volume outlook slightly. And you attribute this to slightly greater than expected impacts on the EU flavor ban. And you did touch on this, but maybe hoping for a little more color on that and any other impact on HTU volume that you're expecting in the back half? Are you expecting IQOS growth to remain robust in Japan in the second half, for instance?

我對你的指導有疑問。您上調了營收和利潤成長預期，但略微下調了 HTU 出貨量預期。您將此歸因於歐盟香料禁令的影響略大於預期。你確實談到了這一點，但也許希望在這方面有更多的色彩，以及你在後半部分所期望的對 HTU 音量的任何其他影響？例如，您是否預計下半年 IQOS 在日本的成長將保持強勁？

And then finally, you mentioned your HTU guide assumes no volumes in Taiwan, so maybe an update there in terms of timing.

最後，您提到您的 HTU 指南假設在台灣沒有捲，所以可能會在時間方面進行更新。

Sure, Bonnie, and thank you for maybe giving me the opportunity to further clarify the dynamic and the good dynamics that we are seeing behind IQOS. So we are indeed revising, first of all, our objective of adjusted in-market sales by around EUR2 billion. I've been clarifying that the majority of that is coming from Taiwan, okay. So in fact, it's really the fact that we were expecting Taiwan to start more than six months this year, and it's at the end of the day, today, we are making the assumption that at the end of day, it's going to be zero volume in Taiwan.

當然，邦妮，謝謝你給我機會進一步闡明我們在 IQOS 背後看到的動態和良好動態。因此，我們確實先將調整後的市場銷售目標修改了約 20 億歐元。我已經澄清過，大部分來自台灣，好吧。所以事實上，我們預計台灣今年將開始六個月以上，而到了今天，我們假設到最後，它將為零台灣的銷售量。

We thought it was a reasonable assumption. Remember, the law allowing for e-tobacco product was passed now 15 months ago. So we thought that during this period of time, there was this capacity to get the approval from the regulator. And there is an administrative process, they're asking question, you have Q&A. It's just taking much more time than what we thought.

我們認為這是一個合理的假設。請記住，允許電子菸草產品的法律已於 15 個月前通過。所以我們認為在這段時間裡，有這個能力得到監管部門的批准。還有一個行政流程，他們提出問題，你有問答。只是花的時間比我們想像的多很多。

But first and foremost, the reason for this EUR2 billion revision on adjusted IMS is Taiwan. Then in addition to that, we have a few EUR100 million that is coming from Europe. So that's really all you should understand the the EUR2 billion. And because of Taiwan, we are indeed saying where we were expecting to be above 140 billion sticks in terms of shipment, we are now expecting to be around 140 billion sticks. Again, that's a way you should understand the revision on the guidance.

但最重要的是，這次 20 億歐元的 IMS 調整調整的原因是台灣。除此之外，我們還有幾億歐元來自歐洲的。所以這就是您應該了解的 20 億歐元的全部內容。由於台灣的原因，我們確實是在說，我們原本預計出貨量將超過 1400 億支，現在我們預計約為 1400 億支。同樣，這也是您理解指南修訂版的一種方式。

But let me take two minutes to explain the dynamic because I want to make sure that things are very clear. What we've been seeing in H1 is in fact an acceleration of the IQOS business outside Europe. So if you look at the adjusted in-market sales outside Europe, and we are talking about 60% of the business, the adjusted IMS were growing around 14% versus around 13% last year. So we've been growing faster in percentage. So you can imagine in term of volume, of course, that means a significant acceleration.

但讓我花兩分鐘來解釋一下動態，因為我想確保事情非常清楚。我們在上半年看到的其實是 IQOS 業務在歐洲以外的加速發展。因此，如果你看看歐洲以外調整後的市場銷售，我們談論的是 60% 的業務，調整後的 IMS 成長了 14% 左右，而去年約為 13%。所以我們的百分比成長得更快。所以你可以想像一下體積，當然，這意味著顯著的加速度。

And indeed, what is behind this very nice dynamism is Japan. You have other developed markets such as South Korea, but we've been seeing a number of new contributor to this growth. We mentioned Indonesia. We mentioned a number of markets in Middle East. Mexico is also accelerating, and we enjoy also a nice performance in Duty Free. So that's really what we are seeing outside Europe.

事實上，這種良好活力的背後是日本。還有韓國等其他已開發市場，但我們已經看到了許多新的成長貢獻者。我們提到了印尼。我們提到了中東的一些市場。墨西哥也在加速，我們在免稅店也有不錯的表現。這就是我們在歐洲以外看到的情況。

Then Europe, absolutely as expected. I mean, we are going through what is a significant transition. We are moving away from flavor. It's still growing. Outside Italy, we have adjusted in-market sales growing close to double digits. So very strong dynamism despite the fact that many of the countries are going through through this transition.

然後是歐洲，完全符合預期。我的意思是，我們正在經歷一個重大轉變。我們正在遠離味道。它仍在增長。在義大利以外，我們調整後的市場銷售成長接近兩位數。儘管許多國家正在經歷這項轉型，但活力非常強勁。

And as we flagged, and it is true that it's really great to see at the same time, our champion market like we mentioned in Portugal, Greece, Hungary that continue to do very well. We have new markets that are really confirming their status of growth driver for the future. We mentioned Germany, Spain, Romania, Bulgaria. So it's important to have this new growth provider, if you want.

正如我們所指出的，確實很高興同時看到我們的冠軍市場，就像我們提到的葡萄牙、希臘、匈牙利一樣，繼續表現出色。我們的新市場確實證實了其未來成長動力的地位。我們提到了德國、西班牙、羅馬尼亞、保加利亞。因此，如果您願意的話，擁有這個新的成長提供者非常重要。

And then a number of markets exiting, I would say, as expected, the turmoil or the disruption, I would say, of a few weeks that is coming with the implementation of the flavor ban. And here, we can mention Greece, we can mention Romania, we can mention Bulgaria, we can mention Czech Republic. So a number of markets where things are happening absolutely as expected.

然後，正如預期的那樣，隨著風味禁令的實施，許多市場將退出幾週內的動盪或中斷。在這裡，我們可以提到希臘，我們可以提到羅馬尼亞，我們可以提到保加利亞，我們可以提到捷克共和國。因此，許多市場的情況完全按照預期發生。

And then you have Italy where we've been, in fact, not evaluating whether the level of flavored product available with distributor and with retail, and there was less than what we thought. And therefore, the consumer offtake has been impacted weaker than what we were anticipating by the absence of a flavored product after the implementation of the flavor ban. And that has had some impact on the growth and at the same time and no doubt that the two cumulating have had some impact.

然後是義大利，事實上，我們一直沒有評估分銷商和零售店提供的調味產品的水平，而且數量比我們想像的要少。因此，在香料禁令實施後，由於缺乏調味產品，消費者購買量受到的影響比我們預期的要弱。這對成長產生了一些影響，同時毫無疑問，兩者的累積也產生了一些影響。

We have been increasing price by $0.30 on our consumable, and that has not been followed or only very marginally by the competition with some impact on our market share as it happens when we increased price in a meaningful manner, widening the gap with competition, and the competition not following. So that is really the picture.

我們已經將消耗品的價格提高了0.30 美元，但競爭對手並沒有跟進或只是非常輕微地提高了價格，這對我們的市場份額產生了一些影響，因為當我們以有意義的方式提高價格時，就會擴大與競爭對手的差距，比賽沒有跟進。這就是真實的情況。

And now when we are looking at the second half, so we expect outside Europe situation to continue to do well. I'm not going to name again all these very great countries where we are performing extremely well. We have the launch of LEVIA and DELIA in a number of countries, and we expect Europe to accelerate as we are transitioning out of this phase of adjustment to the flavor ban. And Italy will be part of the market where we expect improvement, but I would say, globally, we expect more acceleration on all the market that have been going through the flavor ban.

現在，當我們展望下半年時，我們預計歐洲以外的情況將繼續表現良好。我不會再次提及所有這些非常偉大的國家，我們在這些國家中表現得非常出色。我們已經在多個國家推出了 LEVIA 和 DELIA，隨著我們正在從香料禁令的這一調整階段過渡，我們預計歐洲將加速推出。義大利將成為我們預計會有所改善的市場的一部分，但我想說，在全球範圍內，我們預計所有經歷過風味禁令的市場都會加速發展。

So I think this is really the complete picture, Bonnie. I hope it is as good in answering your question.

所以我認為這才是完整的圖景，邦妮。我希望它能很好地回答你的問題。

That was definitely very helpful. I appreciate you going through all of that. And then if I may, I just wanted to ask a question on ILUMA i in Japan, as I was hoping to hear a little more color on this device, which I believe is only available in Japan right now. And curious to hear how big of a lift it has been or essentially how incremental and maybe what you're seeing or hearing from consumers in terms of acceptance of the new device, impact on your gross margins, et cetera. And then finally, your plans for the rollout of this device.

這絕對是非常有幫助的。我很感激你經歷這一切。如果可以的話，我只是想問一個關於日本 ILUMA i 的問題，因為我希望聽到這個設備上更多的顏色，我相信它目前只在日本提供。我很想知道它有多大的提升，或者本質上有多大的增量，也許你從消費者那裡看到或聽到的關於新設備的接受度、對毛利率的影響等等。最後，您推出該設備的計劃。

Sure, Bonnie. So you're right, ILUMA i, so the latest generation of IQOS ILUMA, so there is no change in the fundamental technology, but the device is offering a number of additional functionalities, is for the time being only present in Japan, though a launch in a few other countries is planned for for H2. And it's always difficult to say what this new product is triggering, but we've been seeing clearly a new acquisition of IQOS user.

當然，邦妮。所以你是對的，ILUMA i，所以最新一代的 IQOS ILUMA，所以基本技術沒有變化，但是該設備提供了許多附加功能，目前僅在日本提供，儘管H2 計劃在其他幾個國家推出。總是很難說這個新產品會引發什麼，但我們已經清楚地看到了 IQOS 用戶的新成長。

We've been seeing consumer sentiment going up with some very good reaction to this product. So I would say we continue to have more ammunition to convert smokers to IQOS to improve the experience and to improve customer satisfaction that is triggering, of course, more loyalty that can have some impact on the average daily consumption so a number of positive effect. That's what we have seen in Japan.

我們看到消費者情緒上升，對該產品的反應非常好。因此，我想說，我們繼續有更多的彈藥將吸煙者轉變為IQOS，以改善體驗並提高觸發的客戶滿意度，當然，更多的忠誠度可以對平均每日消費產生一些影響，從而產生一些正面的影響。這就是我們在日本看到的情況。

Difficult for me to tell you exactly by how much this has been further accelerating the growth in Japan, but no doubt that it was positive for the market.

我很難準確地告訴你這在多大程度上進一步加速了日本的成長，但毫無疑問這對市場是正面的。

Matt Smith, Stifel.

馬特史密斯，史蒂菲爾。

Could you provide a little more detail on the growth in oral pouches in international markets? You highlighted some early success in several markets. Are you continuing to expand distribution there? Are there any capacity constraints for those international markets outside of the US?

您能否提供有關國際市場口服袋的增長的更多詳細資訊？您強調了在幾個市場的一些早期成功。你們會繼續在那裡擴大分銷嗎？美國以外的國際市場是否有產能限制？

Sure. So as a coincidence, I suppose, but it is true that in H1, the growth in nicotine pouch outside the US was very similar to the one in the US. We talk about 10% only of the volume in the US. That it includes not totally nothing because that is including the Nordics. And what we are clearly seeing is that there is from the nicotine user some interest and attraction in many countries. I tend to really put three buckets of possible growth for this market.

當然。因此，我認為這是巧合，但確實，在上半年，美國以外的尼古丁袋的成長與美國的成長非常相似。我們談論的數量僅占美國的 10%。它並非完全不包括任何東西，因為這包括北歐人。我們清楚地看到，許多國家的尼古丁使用者都有一定的興趣和吸引力。我傾向於為這個市場劃分三個可能的成長點。

You have, of course, first the Nordic country that has the knowledge, the understanding, the culture of this product, and where the nicotine pouch category is dynamic. And here, we want to take our fair share of the growth. Then you have Europe, where the category is not relevant in all markets, but we can already flag a number of countries such as Austria, the UK, Switzerland, where we believe that there is potential, and we see the growth.

當然，首先是北歐國家，該國家擁有該產品的知識、理解和文化，尼古丁袋裝類別充滿活力。在這裡，我們希望分享我們的成長份額。然後是歐洲，該類別並不與所有市場相關，但我們已經可以標記一些國家，例如奧地利、英國、瑞士，我們相信這些國家有潛力，並且看到了成長。

And then you have, I would say, global market, international market. We can name Pakistan, we can name South Africa, we could talk about Indonesia, maybe Philippines, where we see potential for these nicotine pouches. You may have some picture already of Oral product, and we see some development of the product. I could add Mexico to the list, by the way, where we are starting nicely the development of ZYN.

然後，我想說，全球市場，國際市場。我們可以提到巴基斯坦，我們可以提到南非，我們可以談論印度尼西亞，也許是菲律賓，我們看到了這些尼古丁袋的潛力。您可能已經了解了一些口服產品的圖片，我們也看到了產品的一些發展。順便說一句，我可以將墨西哥添加到清單中，我們正在那裡很好地開始 ZYN 的開發。

So we see that this product may be because of the US influence. I think in the case of some country like the UK, it's clear. That's a category that could grow its awareness, I would say, interestingly and rapidly. And we want absolutely to make sure that we're going to capture our fair share of this opportunity.

所以我們看到這個產品可能是因為美國的影響。我認為對於像英國這樣的國家來說，這一點很明顯。我想說，這個類別可以有趣且迅速地提高其知名度。我們絕對希望確保我們能夠公平地分享這個機會。

Thank you for that. And just a quick follow-up. Is there any capacity limitation on the international business or is that capacity not constrained like what you're seeing in the US?

謝謝你。只是快速跟進。國際業務是否有容量限制，或者該容量不像您在美國看到的那樣受到限制？

No, there is there is no capacity issue that I have to report at that stage.

不，我在那個階段不存在需要報告的容量問題。

Faham Baig, UBS.

法漢姆·拜格，瑞銀集團。

I've got two as well, one on the vapor category and one on ZYN. I know you're looking to expand with your VEEV product, but how do you see the development of the vapor category particularly outside of the US? What profile of users is the category attracting? For example, in Europe, I'm just trying to understand whether consumers that use vapor see it as an alternative to heated tobacco, or are the two categories attracting a different profile of consumers particularly post the flavor ban in Europe?

我也有兩本，一本關於蒸汽類別，另一本關於 ZYN。我知道您正在尋求擴展 VEEV 產品，但您如何看待電子煙類別的發展，特別是在美國以外的地區？該類別吸引了哪些類型的使用者？例如，在歐洲，我只是想了解使用蒸汽的消費者是否將其視為加熱煙草的替代品，或者這兩個類別是否吸引了不同類型的消費者，特別是在歐洲頒布了香料禁令後？

Sure. You want to ask a question on ZYN now, or you want to come back on ZYN after?

當然。您現在想在 ZYN 上提問，還是想稍後再回到 ZYN 上？

Why don't I come back after (inaudible)

我為什麼不在之後回來（聽不清楚）

Okay. So on the vaping category, I think what we are seeing is what we've always been saying. The vaping category is a legitimate category to be an alternative to people who would otherwise smoke. And therefore, that is a category that is growing, not necessarily faster than heat-not-burn, not faster than nicotine pouch for sure. But of course, the basis for nicotine pouch is smaller.

好的。因此，在電子煙類別上，我認為我們所看到的就是我們一直在說的。電子煙類別是一個合法的類別，可以取代吸煙的人。因此，這是一個正在成長的類別，不一定比加熱不燃燒快，也肯定不會比尼古丁袋快。但當然，尼古丁袋的基礎更小。

And we know that the vaping category is more appealing for people of legal age and above that want to start consuming nicotine, and it's much more difficult to convert smokers. And that's clearly what IQOS and the heat-not-burn category is doing much better. So yes, the vaping can be appealing for some legal age and above nicotine user. More difficult to convert smokers, very clearly.

我們知道，電子煙類別對於法定年齡及以上想要開始消費尼古丁的人更具吸引力，而且轉變吸煙者要困難得多。這顯然是 IQOS 和加熱不燃燒類別做得更好的地方。所以，是的，電子煙對於某些法定年齡及以上的尼古丁使用者來說可能很有吸引力。很明顯，改變吸煙者更困難。

We haven't seen any meaningful report of people moving to vaping and a change of kind of dynamic in the category following the implementation of the flavor ban in Europe. Of course, we are monitoring that. But as I said, there is nothing that we can obviously report on that trend, which probably could confirm that we talk about people that are probably with different profile, but that's something that we will have to keep monitoring, of course.

我們還沒有看到任何關於人們轉向電子煙的有意義的報告，也沒有看到歐洲實施香料禁令後該類別的動態發生變化。當然，我們正在監控這一情況。但正如我所說，我們無法明顯地報告這一趨勢，這可能可以證實我們談論的人可能具有不同的特徵，但這當然是我們必須繼續監控的事情。

So we've always been saying that the concern with the vaping category is that if the products are not properly developed and marketed, if there is an unreasonable appeal to flavor, what that can trigger unintended usage, and that is a problem for the category. And we are very happy with our growth because we do that in a very responsible manner, both in terms of development of our product, development of our marketing activity.

所以我們一直在說，電子菸品類的問題在於，如果產品沒有得到適當的開發和行銷，如果對口味有不合理的訴求，會引發非預期的使用，這就是該品類的問題。我們對我們的成長感到非常高興，因為我們以非常負責任的方式做到這一點，無論是在產品開發還是行銷活動開發方面。

And we are developing this responsible approach, very much based on our commercial strength and a great product. I think VEEV 1 is a great product, and strong partnership with the trade that is giving this very good start as we mentioned, we have the number one position in five countries for closed pods. That's really what I can share with you at that stage.

我們正在開發這種負責任的方法，很大程度上是基於我們的商業實力和出色的產品。我認為 VEEV 1 是一款出色的產品，與業界的強大合作夥伴關係為我們帶來了良好的開端，正如我們所提到的，我們在封閉吊艙的五個國家中排名第一。這就是我在那個階段可以與你們分享的。

Yeah, that's helpful. And then secondly, on ZYN in the US. Now according to the scanner data, some of which we received today as well, since momentum from a volume perspective is sequentially falling, albeit very, very low single-digits, would you have an estimate of if you did not have the capacity constraint, what volumes could potentially look like?

是的，這很有幫助。其次是美國的 ZYN。現在根據掃描器數據（我們今天也收到了其中一些數據），由於從成交量角度來看，動量正在連續下降，儘管非常非常低個位數，如果沒有容量限制，您是否可以估計一下，可能會是什麼樣子？

And in the back half, when you are expecting an acceleration in volumes, is that implying that you begin to gain market share? Or is that largely driven by further acceleration in the overall category?

在後半段，當您預計銷售量會加速時，這是否意味著您開始獲得市場份額？或者這很大程度上是由整個類別的進一步加速所推動的？

Look, on ZYN, I think we mentioned the fact that we are clearly with some restrictions. So I'm not sure that what you read in the Nielsen, which corresponds to the availability is going a view on the trend and the consumer demand, we are gradually improving, and we expect to see that in the coming months, the availability.

看，在 ZYN 上，我想我們提到了我們顯然受到一些限制的事實。因此，我不確定您在尼爾森中讀到的與可用性相對應的內容是否是對趨勢和消費者需求的看法，我們正在逐步改進，我們預計在未來幾個月內會看到可用性。

Today, we clarify that we are working with a target of around 900 million can capacity for next year. So we are creating very nice headroom for growth for the coming quarters. And we think it's really important. I'm not going to be able to tell you because, frankly, it's impossible to say what would have been the growth rate without the limitation.

今天，我們澄清，我們明年的目標是達到約 9 億罐產能。因此，我們正在為未來幾季的成長創造非常好的空間。我們認為這非常重要。我無法告訴你，因為坦白說，不可能說出沒有限制的情況下成長率是多少。

Please bear in mind that there were some competitors move in term of pricing last year that triggered an acceleration in our market share, and that the effect is now behind us. So it is also having some impact on the year-on-year comparison. So that's what we can say on ZYN.

請記住，去年一些競爭對手在定價方面的舉措導致我們的市場份額加速成長，而這種影響現在已經過去了。因此，它對同比也產生了一些影響。這就是我們在 ZYN 上可以說的。

If I could quickly squeeze in one more. Is there any update on the review of the ZYN sales post the recent subpoena in the District of Columbia that is ongoing and forced you to close your zyn.com sales and when that might recover?

要是我能快點再擠進去就好了。最近在哥倫比亞特區發出傳票後，對 ZYN 銷售的審查是否有任何更新，該傳票正在進行中並迫使您關閉 zyn.com 銷售，以及何時可以恢復？

Yeah, so I know there is nothing new. We keep working and fully cooperating, of course, with the Attorney General. And at that stage, it's impossible to say how long the work will take or what will be the conclusion. And there is nothing new today.

是的，所以我知道沒有什麼新鮮事。當然，我們繼續與司法部長合作並充分合作。在那個階段，無法確定工作需要多長時間或會得出什麼結論。今天沒有什麼新鮮事。

Owen Bennett, Jefferies.

歐文貝內特，傑弗里斯。

I just had a couple of questions on the US pouch dynamics. So first -- and I would assume this is due to certain retailers trying to fill the supply gap. I have been seeing some Scandinavian ZYN available in certain stores. So I was wondering how you can get on top of this to make sure that's not happening.

我只是有幾個關於美國郵袋動態的問題。首先，我認為這是由於某些零售商試圖填補供應缺口。我在某些商店看到了一些斯堪的納維亞 ZYN。所以我想知道如何才能避免這種情況發生。

And then second, I'm also now seeing over more than Oral brands appearing, I assume do not have a PMTA submitted. So how do you see the risk we could see a similar scenario developing in pouches in the US and to what we're seeing in vape with illegal products?

其次，我現在看到的不僅僅是口服品牌，我認為還沒有提交 PMTA。那麼，您如何看待美國袋裝電子煙中出現類似情況以及非法產品電子煙中出現類似情況的風險？

So you're alluding to product that would come from non-US market, correct? That's what --

所以您指的是來自非美國市場的產品，對嗎？就是這樣——

In retail, the distributors are buying them online from Scandinavia to try and fill the supply gap. Just wondering how you can get on top of that to make sure that's not happening?

在零售方面，經銷商從斯堪的納維亞半島在線購買，試圖填補供應缺口。只是想知道如何才能避免這種情況發生？

Look, I don't have any information about that. So I cannot make any comment or report. I think we are doing everywhere we can, our utmost to ensure that the flows are appropriate and not going where they should not be going. And we are working very hard with this objective. And I don't have any data, and I cannot react on that. But our position is very clear. We are very strict on doing everything we can to make sure that these parallel flows are not happening.

聽著，我沒有任何相關資訊。所以我無法發表任何評論或報告。我認為我們正在盡一切努力，盡最大努力確保資金流向適當，而不是流向不應該流向的地方。我們正在努力實現這一目標。我沒有任何數據，無法對此做出反應。但我們的立場非常明確。我們非常嚴格地盡一切努力確保這些並行流程不會發生。

On your question on -- if I understand you well, Owen, could -- do we see the same kind of phenomenon on nicotine pouch than the one we are seeing on vaping, which is illicit parallel flow that would be entering the US market?

關於你的問題——如果我很好地理解你，歐文，我們可以在尼古丁袋上看到與我們在電子煙上看到的同樣的現象嗎？

Yes. I'm starting to see brands that I'm assuming do not have the MTS. Just wondering how you see the risk around that?

是的。我開始看到一些我認為沒有 MTS 的品牌。只是想知道您如何看待這方面的風險？

Today, from what we can monitor in the market, we are not having the feeling that there is anything material at that stage. But of course, we are monitoring that very carefully. If it was to become material, I think what we are clearly seeing today is that the authorities take that seriously, and they are starting to have much more action and be much more alert on the topic. So I would expect them to have the same behavior when it comes to nicotine pouches.

今天，從我們對市場的監測來看，我們感覺現階段沒有任何實質的東西。當然，我們正在非常仔細地監控這一情況。如果它成為實質內容，我認為我們今天清楚地看到當局認真對待這一問題，他們開始採取更多行動，並對這個主題更加警惕。因此，我希望他們在尼古丁袋方面也有同樣的行為。

So to summarize, I don't think we're seeing anything meaningful today to be certainly watched. And if it was to become the case, we would expect the authority to have the same, I would say, proactive behavior that they -- I think they are starting to implement on vaping.

總而言之，我認為我們今天沒有看到任何值得關注的有意義的內容。如果情況真的如此，我們希望當局能夠採取同樣的積極主動的行為，我認為他們正在開始對電子煙採取行動。

Callum Elliott, Bernstein.

卡勒姆·艾利奧特，伯恩斯坦。

It's actually a follow-up, quite a similar question to what you just had for a moment, but I want to push you a bit further because we also, like Owen, see pretty widespread evidence now that European moist versions of ZYN that do not have premarket approval as far as I'm aware and weren't in the market as of August 2016 are available for sale on a widespread basis across New York City. But also, the online performance suggests that this has become a pretty widespread issue across the US as a whole.

這實際上是一個後續問題，與您剛才遇到的問題非常相似，但我想進一步推動您，因為我們也像歐文一樣，現在看到相當廣泛的證據表明歐洲潮濕版本的 ZYN 不據我所知，已獲得上市前批准，並且截至2016 年8 月尚未上市，但在紐約市廣泛出售。而且，線上表現表明，這已成為整個美國相當普遍的問題。

So I guess two questions. Can you just confirm for us that those products weren't in the market of August 2016 and that they are being sold in breach of FDA regulations?

所以我猜有兩個問題。您能否向我們確認這些產品在 2016 年 8 月並未上市，且其銷售違反了 FDA 規定？

And then, I guess, secondly, building upon what Owen asked, presuming that you're not selling a list of product directly to US retailers yourselves, what can you do, and what are you doing to stop European e-commerce retailers selling this product? Because it strikes me that this presents a pretty meaningful potential risk to your US ZYN business if this illicit product continues entering the US market in this way.

然後，我想，其次，根據歐文的要求，假設您自己不直接向美國零售商銷售產品清單，您能做什麼，以及您正在做什麼來阻止歐洲電子商務零售商銷售該產品產品？因為我覺得如果這種非法產品繼續以這種方式進入美國市場，這會為您的美國 ZYN 業務帶來相當大的潛在風險。

Look, again, I don't have any data on what you're saying, so it's very difficult for me to report. I think we know whether the product that benefit from the situation and the positioning in 2016 in the market and that, therefore, are legally being commercialized. As you can imagine, I'm going to repeat only what I said. We are doing everything we can to control the flows.

再說一次，我沒有關於你所說的任何數據，所以我很難報告。我認為我們知道該產品是否受益於 2016 年的市場狀況和定位，因此是否可以合法商業化。正如你所想像的，我將只重複我所說的話。我們正在盡一切努力控制流量。

I don't have information today saying that you have these flows of product. If we knew, we would certainly tackle that, and we would try to understand where it's coming from. And what I can certainly repeat is that our objective is to do our utmost, everything we can to be compliant with the regulation. And there is nothing else I can say, really.

我今天沒有資訊表明你們擁有這些產品流。如果我們知道的話，我們肯定會解決這個問題，並且我們會嘗試了解它的來源。我當然可以重複的是，我們的目標是盡最大努力遵守法規。我真的無話可說。

Okay. And maybe just a follow-up. I guess, as you think about bringing supply back online in the US, also bringing new supply online to meet demand, what gives you this confidence that we're going to see the sort of upward lift in ZYN guidance today implies a very significant sort of back half hockey stick in terms of sort of positive inflection in the growth rate. Which, to Faham's earlier question, we see sequential declines in growth now quarter to date.

好的。也許只是後續行動。我想，當您考慮在美國恢復供應，同時增加新的供應來滿足需求時，是什麼讓您有信心我們今天將看到 ZYN 指引的某種程度的向上提升意味著一種非常重要的變化後半曲棍球棒的成長率呈現正面變化。對於法漢姆之前提出的問題，我們看到本季迄今的成長連續下降。

So what gives you the confidence that the consumers are switching to on consumers that are switching to rogue, some of the consumer reviews of some of these competitive products are sometimes better than this. So what gives you the confidence that now that consumer awareness for these other brands has grown as a result of your supply chain issues that you're going to immediately win those consumers back when the supply comes online again?

那麼，是什麼讓你有信心消費者正在轉向流氓消費者，一些消費者對這些競爭產品的評論有時比這更好。那麼，是什麼讓您有信心相信，由於您的供應鏈問題，消費者對這些其他品牌的認識已經提高，當供應再次上線時，您將立即贏得這些消費者呢？

Look, Callum, this is obviously coming from a mix of consumer demand perception that we have. And we believe that if we can produce them, there is a space to get to 580 million can shipments. That's the first element. And that's what our senses are telling us about what consumer would be happy to buy if it was available.

看，卡勒姆，這顯然來自我們對消費者需求的看法。我們相信，如果我們能夠生產它們，就有空間達到 5.8 億罐的出貨量。這是第一個要素。這就是我們的感官告訴我們的，如果有什麼產品的話，消費者會很樂意購買。

And at the same time, of course, our measures to increase production capacity, where, as I said, I'm not going to elaborate on the various levers, but we're pulling a number of levers to progressively increase the capacity for ZYN production in the US. So that's really the combination of the two.

當然，與此同時，我們也採取了提高產能的措施，正如我所說，我不會詳細說明各種槓桿，但我們正在利用許多槓桿來逐步提高 ZYN 的產能在美國生產。所以這確實是兩者的結合。

Priya Ohri-Gupta, Barclays.

Priya Ohri-Gupta，巴克萊銀行。

Emmanuel, I was wondering if you could give us a little bit more color on the IQOS ILUMA tests that you're planning for the US. It sounds like just a few cities. Will those be sort of diverse geographically across the US.? And what are some of the learnings that you're hoping to, I think, unlock? And how could this be different than what we saw initially several years ago with some of the standalone stores that were put in place? And then I have a follow-up.

Emmanuel，我想知道您是否可以給我們更多關於您計劃在美國進行的 IQOS ILUMA 測試的資訊。聽起來好像只有幾個城市。這些在美國各地的地理位置會有所不同嗎？我認為您希望解鎖哪些知識？這與我們幾年前最初看到的一些獨立商店有何不同？然後我有一個後續行動。

Sure, Priya. Well, that's a very broad question, although a very important one, of course. So given where we are, I'm going to make a short answer on that one. First of all, we clarify the fact that we go for a scale launch only once we get the PMTA for ILUMA.

當然，普里亞。嗯，這是一個非常廣泛的問題，當然也是一個非常重要的問題。鑑於我們目前的情況，我將對此做出簡短的回答。首先，我們澄清這樣一個事實：只有在獲得 ILUMA 的 PMTA 後，我們才會進行規模發布。

And as I said in my preliminary remarks, we are still, today, targeting to get this approval in the second half of 2025. Once we are there, then we have the right product to really go broader in the US. And at that stage, we will have been learning with a number of things that we're going to do between Q4 and the moment where we go with ILUMA.

正如我在初步發言中所說，今天我們的目標仍然是在 2025 年下半年獲得批准。在那個階段，我們將學習從第四季度到我們與 ILUMA 合作的那一刻之間要做的許多事情。

And it's -- you're asking, okay, what are you going to do differently? Let's -- let's be clear, we don't believe that IQOS has never been launched in a kind of serious, consistent and profound manner. And we believe that what makes IQOS so popular outside the US. is going to resonate with a number of smokers among the around 30 million smokers in the US.

你會問，好吧，你打算採取什麼不同的做法？讓我們明確一點，我們並不認為 IQOS 從未以一種嚴肅、一致和深刻的方式推出。我們相信這就是 IQOS 在美國以外如此受歡迎的原因。將會引起美國約 3000 萬煙民中的一些煙民的共鳴。

So we're going to develop what has been working elsewhere. It will be about, of course, going to the smokers explaining what IQOS is about, explaining the experience, why IQOS is a better product than smoking. I think it will be, as always, very important to create the image, the brand territory, but also talk about closely with the smokers, okay, this is a journey to move away from smoking and to go to a better product to IQOS.

因此，我們將開發其他地方已經行之有效的方法。當然，這將是向吸菸者解釋 IQOS 是什麼，解釋其體驗，為什麼 IQOS 是比吸菸更好的產品。我認為一如既往，創建形象、品牌領地非常重要，而且還要與吸煙者密切交談，好吧，這是一個遠離吸煙、走向更好的 IQOS 產品的旅程。

We will have the same commercial, I would say, machine that has been successful in so many markets with developing our own retail sales point. We will have a strong partnership with a number of independent and third-party retailers. So we're going to pull all the levers and something that has not been done in the US. Because until now, it has been only a very limited launch in a few cities with limited actions.

我想說，我們將擁有在許多市場上取得成功的相同商業機器，並開發我們自己的零售點。我們將與許多獨立和第三方零售商建立牢固的合作夥伴關係。因此，我們將動用所有手段，採取一些美國尚未採取的措施。因為到目前為止，還只是在少數城市進行了非常有限的推出，行動也有限。

So everything is going to start at that moment for IQOS and there won't be any magic. We're going to use what has been working so well elsewhere, of course, adapting it to the US market.

所以對於 IQOS 來說，一切都將從那一刻開始，不會有任何魔法。當然，我們將使用在其他地方行之有效的方法，並使其適應美國市場。

That's really helpful. And I guess just a follow-on to that is you talked a lot about the development of IQOS VEEV outside the US. Maybe broad strokes, how do you think that product could play out in the US? And at what point would think about filing PMTAs and then broaden the availability of that in the US?

這真的很有幫助。我想接下來您談論了很多關於 IQOS VEEV 在美國以外的開發。也許粗略地說，您認為產品在美國的表現如何？什麼時候會考慮提交 PMTA，然後擴大其在美國的可用性？

Look, for the time being, we don't have the plan to file a PMTA on these. We are very much focusing on IQOS. I think that this success is just at the beginning today. It's great to have already five markets where we are number one on the closed pods system, but it's just the beginning. We're going to keep learning, developing how we can develop a successful, profitable business on vaping. And then we will see whether in due course, it may make sense to have some thoughts for VEEV in the US, but we are not at that stage today.

看來，目前我們還沒有計劃就這些問題提交 PMTA。我們非常關注IQOS。我認為今天的成功才剛開始。很高興已經有五個市場，我們在封閉式吊艙系統上排名第一，但這只是一個開始。我們將繼續學習、研究如何發展成功、獲利的電子煙業務。然後我們會看看在適當的時候，對美國的 VEEV 進行一些思考是否有意義，但我們今天還沒有到那個階段。

Just one final housekeeping item. You talked about your interest expense being at the low end of your prior range, $1.3 billion. Does that reflect, I guess, the issuance you've done to date? And should we anticipate that there wouldn't be any incremental interest expense headwinds, i.e., potential scope for any other refinancing or pre-financing that you might consider?

只是最後一項家務管理項目。您談到您的利息支出處於先前範圍的低端，即 13 億美元。我想這是否反映了你們迄今為止所做的發行？我們是否應該預期不會出現任何增加的利息支出阻力，即您可能考慮的任何其他再融資或預融資的潛在範圍？

No. I think the improvement in the estimated financial cost for the year is reflecting a better situation on, first of all, the level of the debt with the cash flow generation. Second, with how we are financing the group. And that is coming with this -- you said it. I mean, we are in the low end of the initial bracket. And I don't think you should expect some kind of revolution in the way we are financing the company, nothing on the agenda.

不。其次，我們如何為該集團融資。這就是隨之而來的──你說過的。我的意思是，我們處於初始階段的低端。我認為你不應該期待我們為公司融資的方式會發生某種革命，沒有任何議程上的事情。

I would now like to hand the call back to James Bushnell for closing remarks.

現在我想將電話轉回給詹姆斯布希內爾，讓其致閉幕詞。

That concludes our call today. Thank you for joining us. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact the PMI Investor Relations team. Thank you again, and have a great day.

我們今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您加入我們。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡 PMI 投資者關係團隊。再次感謝您，祝您有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。