菲利普莫里斯國際 (PM) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Philip Morris International Fourth Quarter 2024 and Full Year Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Philip Morris International management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加菲利普莫里斯國際公司 2024 年第四季及全年財報電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續約 1 小時，包括菲利普莫里斯國際公司管理層的演講和問答環節。 （操作員說明）。提醒一下，今天的通話正在錄音。

I will now turn the call over to James Bushnell, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communications. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在將把電話轉給投資人關係和財經傳播副總裁詹姆斯‧布希內爾 (James Bushnell)。請繼續，先生。

Welcome. Thank you for joining us. Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2023 fourth quarter and full year results. The press release is available on our website at pmi.com.

歡迎。感謝您加入我們。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含有關 2023 年第四季和全年業績的詳細資訊。新聞稿可在我們的網站 pmi.com 上取得。

A glossary of terms, including the definition of smoke-free products as well as adjustments, other calculations and reconciliations to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures for non-GAAP financial measures cited in this presentation and additional net revenue data are available in Exhibit 99.2 to the company's Form 8-K dated on today's date and on our Investor Relations website.

術語表，包括無菸產品的定義以及本簡報中引用的非公認會計原則財務指標與最直接可比較的美國公認會計原則財務指標的調整、其他計算和調節，以及其他淨收入數據，請參見圖表99.2請參閱公司今天發布的 8-K 表格以及我們的投資者關係網站。

Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results. I direct your attention to the Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements.

今天的言論包含前瞻性陳述和對未來結果的預測。我請您注意今天的簡報和新聞稿中揭露的前瞻性和警示性聲明，以審查可能導致實際結果與預測或前瞻性聲明有重大差異的各種因素。

I'm joined today by Jacek Olczak, Chief Executive Officer; and Emmanuel Babeau, Chief Financial Officer.

今天，執行長 Jacek Olczak 也加入了我的行列。和財務長伊曼紐爾·巴博 (Emmanuel Babeau)。

Over to you, Jacek.

交給你了，雅切克。

Thank you, James, and welcome, everyone.

謝謝詹姆斯，歡迎大家。

PMI delivered another strong operating performance in 2023. We achieved our third consecutive year of positive volumes and a high single-digit organic top line growth driven by smoke-free products. Smoke-free products delivered accelerated accretion to profitability in the fourth quarter, as our IQOS business delivered meaningful 2023 operating leverage, mitigating a significant drag from combustibles. I am also very pleased to report the continued outstanding growth of ZYN, which was not included in organic metrics until mid of November last year.

PMI 在 2023 年再次實現了強勁的經營業績。在無菸產品的推動下，我們連續第三年實現了正銷售和高單位數有機收入成長。無菸產品在第四季度加快了獲利能力的成長，因為我們的 IQOS 業務在 2023 年實現了有意義的營運槓桿，減輕了可燃物的重大拖累。我也很高興地報告 ZYN 持續出色的成長，直到去年 11 月中旬才納入有機指標。

Importantly, smoke-free products reached nearly 40% of total PMI net revenues in the fourth quarter and over 40% of gross profit. For the year, smoke-free gross profit increased by 19% organically, and we expect smoke-free organic growth to accelerate for both net revenues and gross profit in 2024.

重要的是，無菸產品在第四季度佔 PMI 淨收入總額的近 40%，佔毛利潤的 40% 以上。今年，無菸毛利潤有機成長了 19%，我們預計 2024 年無菸淨收入和毛利的有機成長都將加速。

ZYN delivered exceptional growth in its first year within PMI, with U.S. pro forma volumes up by over 60% for the year and over 75% in the quarter four. Oral smoke-free is accretive to both our smoke-free business and the overall growth with Swedish Match contributing 50 basis points organic uplift to Q4 OI margins from only 50 days of the period.

ZYN 在 PMI 的第一年實現了非凡的成長，美國預計銷量全年增長超過 60%，第四季度增長超過 75%。口腔無菸對我們的無菸業務和整體成長都有促進作用，瑞典火柴僅在 50 天的時間裡就為第四季度 OI 利潤率帶來了 50 個基點的有機提升。

Our IQOS business continues to deliver excellent results, with 15% adjusted in-market sales growth for heated tobacco units, reflecting broad-based momentum in Europe, Japan and emerging markets. The rollout of IQOS ILUMA is substantially complete and now is present in the 51 markets representing over 95% of IQOS geographies by volume excluding Russia and Ukraine. The superior experience and design of ILUMA, combined with the strong premium brand rate equity of IQOS and our commercial infrastructure enabled IQOS to outgrow the heat-not-burn category, despite holding a category share of over 75%. Importantly, as we have seen in Japan, the launch of ILUMA is a multiyear growth driver consistent with past IQOS innovations.

我們的 IQOS 業務持續取得優異的業績，加熱菸草產品的調整後市場銷售成長了 15%，反映出歐洲、日本和新興市場的廣泛勢頭。 IQOS ILUMA 的推出已基本完成，目前已進入 51 個市場，佔 IQOS 地區銷售量的 95% 以上（不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭）。 ILUMA 的卓越體驗和設計，加上 IQOS 強大的優質品牌價值和我們的商業基礎設施，使 IQOS 的成長超越了加熱不燃燒類別，儘管其類別份額超過 75%。重要的是，正如我們在日本看到的那樣，ILUMA 的推出是與過去 IQOS 創新一致的多年成長動力。

Our 2023 combustible performance was margin-dilutive despite strong commercial results, with very good pricing and higher category share. This reflects the significant cost pressures in the category, geographic mix from volume growth in lower-margin markets without smoke-free product and the impact of IQOS cannibalization. This was also compounded by the technical impact of third-party manufacturing in Indonesia and Ukraine.

儘管我們的商業業績強勁、定價非常好、品類份額更高，但我們 2023 年的可燃物業績仍會攤薄利潤。這反映了該類別的巨大成本壓力、無無菸產品的低利潤市場銷售成長所帶來的地理組合以及 IQOS 蠶食的影響。印尼和烏克蘭第三方製造的技術影響也加劇了這個問題。

While constant currency headwinds impacted our revenues in 2023, the strengthening growth and margin profile of smoke-free products set us up well to deliver sustainable growth and returns, including currency in 2024 and beyond.

雖然持續的貨幣逆風影響了我們 2023 年的收入，但無菸產品的強勁成長和利潤狀況使我們能夠很好地實現永續成長和回報，包括 2024 年及以後的貨幣。

We reached a number of key transformation milestones in the last quarter of last year. First, IQOS' net revenues surpassed Marlboro to become the #1 international nicotine brand on this measure. This demonstrates the power of innovative smoke-free alternatives to switch adult smokers away from cigarettes and to address the societal issue of combustible tobacco. It is also testament to our organization's ability to build strong and sustainable brand equity.

去年最後一個季度，我們實現了許多關鍵的轉型里程碑。首先，以此衡量標準，IQOS 的淨收入超過萬寶路，成為排名第一的國際尼古丁品牌。這證明了創新的無菸替代品可以讓成年吸菸者遠離香菸並解決可燃菸草的社會問題。這也證明了我們組織有能力建立強大且永續的品牌資產。

This also applies to ZYN, the fastest-growing U.S. smoke-free brand with another outstanding performance in Q4 marked by an increase in category volume share, retail value share and overall volumes.

這也適用於成長最快的美國無菸品牌 ZYN，其在第四季度的另一個出色表現是品類銷售份額、零售價值份額和整體銷售的成長。

We're also proud to have reached 25 markets where smoke-free products exceed 50% of our top line for both Q4 and the full year. We aim to reach 60 markets by 2030, driving our ambition to exceed 2/3 of group net revenue.

我們也很自豪地進入了 25 個市場，其中無菸產品在第四季度和全年的營收均超過了 50%。我們的目標是到 2030 年進入 60 個市場，推動我們的目標超過集團淨收入的 2/3。

Last, as I already mentioned, over 40% of our total gross profit was generated by smoke-free products, with the adjusted gross margin rate on smoke-free surpassing combustibles for both the quarter and year.

最後，正如我已經提到的，我們總毛利的 40% 以上來自無菸產品，調整後的無菸產品毛利率在季度和年度均超過了可燃產品。

We are encouraged by the increasing number of governments adopting tobacco harm reduction policies to encourage reduced risk nicotine consumption instead of smoking, which is ultimately more sustainable for society. Nevertheless, a considerable amount of work remains.

我們感到鼓舞的是，越來越多的政府採取減少菸草危害的政策，鼓勵降低風險的尼古丁消費而不是吸煙，這最終對社會來說更加可持續。儘管如此，仍有大量工作要做。

Sustainable growth requires a sustainable business, and we continue to garner increasing recognition for our sustainability performance across the key product and operational topics for our company. PMI was included in our Dow Jones Sustainably World Index for the first time, and for the fourth year in a row, the DJSI of America. In addition, PMI was awarded carbon disposal projects Triple A rating for the fourth consecutive year.

永續成長需要一個可持續的業務，我們在公司關鍵產品和營運主題上的永續發展表現不斷獲得越來越多的認可。 PMI 首次被納入道瓊永續發展世界指數，並且連續第四年被納入美國 DJSI。此外，PMI連續第四年獲得碳處置項目AAA評級。

I will now hand it over to Emmanuel to discuss our results and outlook in more detail.

我現在將把它交給伊曼紐爾，更詳細地討論我們的結果和前景。

Thank you, Jacek. Let's start with the headline numbers.

謝謝你，雅切克。讓我們從標題數字開始。

We finished the year strongly with Q4 organic net revenue growth of plus 8.3%. This includes plus 14% growth from smoke-free products despite slower HTU shipment growth due to comparison effects and also plus 5% growth from combustibles. Pricing was a strong driver for both categories, with smoke-free pricing including the impact of retail price increases on HTUs. While Swedish Match was only included in organic metrics as of November 12, it contributed plus 0.8 percentage points to Q4 organic top line growth and grew by an excellent plus 26% on a pro forma basis.

我們以強勁的表現結束了這一年，第四季的有機淨收入成長了 8.3% 以上。其中包括無菸產品 14% 的成長（儘管由於比較效應導致 HTU 出貨量成長放緩）以及可燃產品 5% 的成長。定價是這兩個類別的強大驅動力，其中無菸定價包括零售價格上漲對 HTU 的影響。儘管截至 11 月 12 日，Swedish Match 僅包含在有機指標中，但它為第四季度的有機營收成長貢獻了 0.8 個百分點，並且預計成長了 26%。

Operating income grew organically by a very good plus 8%, including a Swedish Match contribution of plus 2.2 points. As expected, Q4 margins were broadly stable organically and grew, excluding the technical effect mentioned by Jacek.

營業收入有機成長了 8%，其中瑞典火柴貢獻了 2.2 個百分點。正如預期的那樣，排除雅采克提到的技術影響，第四季度的有機利潤率基本上穩定並有所增長。

This enabled our business to deliver another quarter of double-digit currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth at plus 12.2%. This exceeded our prior expectations, with ZYN's remarkable growth as a notable contributor.

這使得我們的業務在貨幣中性調整後的稀釋每股收益上又實現了兩位數成長，成長率為 12.2%。這超出了我們先前的預期，ZYN 的顯著成長做出了顯著的貢獻。

Despite this strong currency-neutral result, Q4 adjusted diluted EPS of $1.36 was adversely affected by a greater-than-expected currency impact of $0.20. This includes a $0.09 balance sheet-related impact under hyperinflationary accounting in Argentina, following the devaluation of the peso in mid-December. As with the previously mentioned impact in Q3, this reflects the depreciation of monetary net assets denominated in pesos, which are subject to capital controls. By its nature, this does not carry forward to future periods.

儘管匯率中性結果強勁，但第四季度調整後攤薄每股收益為 1.36 美元，但受到高於預期的 0.20 美元匯率影響。這包括 12 月中旬比索貶值後阿根廷惡性通貨膨脹會計下與資產負債表相關的 0.09 美元影響。與前面提到的第三季的影響一樣，這反映了以比索計價的貨幣淨資產的貶值，而該資產受到資本管制。就其性質而言，這不會延續到未來時期。

Turning to the full year. Net revenue grew by plus 7.8% organically, representing the third straight year of high single-digit growth. Similar to Q4, this reflects continued excellent IQOS momentum and strong combustible pricing. In 2023, Swedish Match, led by ZYN, grew pro forma ex currency net revenues by plus 20%.

轉至全年。淨收入有機成長 7.8%，連續第三年實現高個位數成長。與第四季度類似，這反映出 IQOS 持續出色的勢頭和強勁的可燃定價。 2023 年，以 ZYN 為首的瑞典火柴的預計前貨幣淨收入增長了 20% 以上。

Operating income grew by plus 3.7% organically, reflecting a challenging first half followed by strong growth in H2. We delivered expansion in both adjusted gross margin and operating income margin in H2, driven by the strong progress of smoke-free products. With the impact of accelerated device sales from the ILUMA rollout in the base and a return to sea freight to Japan, the effect of growing HTU volume and ongoing cost optimization are clearly visible.

營業收入有機成長 3.7%，反映出上半年充滿挑戰，下半年成長強勁。在無菸產品強勁進展的推動下，我們在下半年調整後毛利率和營業利潤率均實現成長。隨著 ILUMA 在基地的推出以及返回日本的海運帶來的加速設備銷售的影響，HTU 數量增長和持續成本優化的效果顯而易見。

As expected, OI margin organically contracted 150 basis points for the full year, primarily due to acute cost and supply chain headwinds in H1. As flagged in prior quarters, full year margin includes a 40 basis point headwind from the accounting treatment of third-party manufacturing in Indonesia and Ukraine, primarily reflecting the Indonesia excise tax gross-up of around $250 million growth in both net revenue and cost of sales. While headwinds in combustibles have not fully abated, our smoke-free business is delivering excellent profit growth and our organic results will include the strong contribution from Swedish Match going forward.

如預期，全年 OI 利潤率有機收縮 150 個基點，主要是由於上半年嚴重的成本和供應鏈不利因素。正如前幾季所指出的，全年利潤率包括印尼和烏克蘭第三方製造的會計處理帶來的 40 個基點逆風，主要反映了印尼消費稅總額約 2.5 億美元的淨收入和成本增長。銷售量。儘管可燃物方面的不利因素尚未完全減弱，但我們的無菸業務正在實現出色的利潤成長，我們的有機業績將包括瑞典火柴未來的強勁貢獻。

We successfully mitigated inflationary pressure and supported investment with efficiency. Across our total operating cost base, we delivered an incremental $100 million in gross cost efficiency in Q4 and $2.2 billion for 2021-2023 overall, surpassing our $2 billion target. We target an additional $2 billion over the next 3 years.

成功緩解通膨壓力，高效支持投資。在我們的總營運成本基礎上，我們第四季的總成本效率增加了 1 億美元，2021-2023 年總體成本效率增加了 22 億美元，超過了 20 億美元的目標。我們的目標是在未來 3 年內追加 20 億美元。

These positive factors allowed us to deliver very strong currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth of plus 11%, ahead of our prior expectations. Adjusted diluted EPS of $6.01 includes unfavorable currency of $0.63, primarily reflecting the Japanese yen, Russian ruble and specific Argentine peso dynamic I just explained. We include a slide in the appendix to this presentation with more detail.

這些積極因素使我們能夠實現非常強勁的貨幣中性調整後稀釋每股收益成長 11% 以上，超出了我們先前的預期。調整後攤薄每股收益為 6.01 美元，其中包括 0.63 美元的不利貨幣，主要反映了日圓、俄羅斯盧布和我剛才解釋的特定阿根廷比索動態。我們在本簡報的附錄中包含了一張包含更多詳細資訊的幻燈片。

Focusing now on volumes. We comfortably achieved a third consecutive year of shipment growth driven by a plus 15% increase for IQOS HTUs in addition to a resilient combustible performance. Our smoke-free volumes made up over 20% of total PMI in Q4, and with continued mid-teens of better growth expected here, we are very well positioned to continue growing volumes over the mid and long term.

現在關注數量。除了彈性可燃性能之外，IQOS HTU 成長了 15%，我們輕鬆實現了連續第三年的出貨量成長。我們的無菸銷量佔第四季度 PMI 總量的 20% 以上，並且預計這裡將繼續實現 15% 左右的更好增長，因此我們完全有能力在中長期繼續實現銷量增長。

2023 HTU shipment volume of 125.3 billion units were at the lower end of our targeted range due to delayed launches in Saudi Arabia and Taiwan, combined with lower-than-expected underlying growth in Russia and Ukraine.

由於沙烏地阿拉伯和台灣的上市延遲，加上俄羅斯和烏克蘭的潛在成長低於預期，2023 年 HTU 出貨量為 1,253 億台，處於我們目標範圍的下限。

For IQOS HTUs, we believe the best indicator of underlying growth is adjusted IMS as the closest metric to consumer offtake. For the full year, adjusted in-market sales volume and shipment growth were in line at plus 15%. In the fourth quarter, HTU shipment growth of plus 6% reflects trade inventory buildup in the prior year quarter and the plus 14% adjusted IMS growth is, therefore, a more reliable measure of continued strong growth momentum. Excluding Russia and Ukraine, adjusted in-market sales grew by more than plus 17% for the year.

對於 IQOS HTU，我們認為潛在成長的最佳指標是調整後的 IMS，作為最接近消費者購買量的指標。全年調整後的市場銷量和出貨量成長均在 15% 以上。第四季度，HTU 出貨量成長 6% 以上，反映出去年同期貿易庫存的增加，因此，調整後的 IMS 成長 14% 以上，是衡量持續強勁成長動能的更可靠指標。不包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭，調整後的市場銷售額全年成長超過 17%。

For context, across the 2 years before the war began in 2022, these markets made up 23% of HTU shipment volume and exceeded the company's growth rate by a notable margin.

就背景而言，在 2022 年戰爭開始前的兩年裡，這些市場佔 HTU 出貨量的 23%，並顯著超過了該公司的成長率。

These smoke-free volume growth rates exclude the excellent development of our oral nicotine portfolio, driven by ZYN, with shipment volumes up by plus 23% in Q4 and plus 17% in 2023 on a pro forma basis.

這些無菸銷售成長率不包括 ZYN 推動的口服尼古丁產品組合的出色發展，按預計，第四季度出貨量成長 23%，2023 年成長 17%。

Cigarette shipments declined by a modest 1.4% in 2023, outperforming the international category decline of 2.4%.

2023 年菸出貨量小幅下降 1.4%，優於國際菸 2.4% 的降幅。

Turning to profits. Organic operating income growth stepped up in H2 to plus 10% following the exceptional headwinds of H1. We believe this is more representative of the underlying momentum of our business and in line with our '24-'26 CAGR target range of plus 8% to plus 10%.

轉向利潤。繼上半年的特殊阻力之後，下半年有機營業收入成長加速至 10%。我們相信這更能代表我們業務的潛在動力，並符合我們「24-26 年複合年增長率+8% 至+10%」的目標範圍。

Focusing now on some key drivers of our full year operating income. Smoke-free gross profit grew organically by an excellent plus 19%, expanding gross margin by 340 basis points. This reflects part of the operating leverage of IQOS I already mentioned, with a notable contribution from Swedish Match overall oral nicotine in the last 50 days of Q4 with organic operating profit growth of over 50%. With smoke-free commercial costs also increasing by less than net revenue, this clearly bodes well for 2024 as we continue to benefit from scale effects and manufacturing optimization.

現在關注我們全年營業收入的一些關鍵驅動因素。無菸毛利有機成長 19%，毛利率擴大 340 個基點。這反映了我已經提到的 IQOS 的部分營運槓桿，其中瑞典火柴整體口服尼古丁在第四季最後 50 天的貢獻顯著，有機營運利潤成長超過 50%。由於無菸商業成本的成長也低於淨收入，這對 2024 年來說顯然是個好兆頭，因為我們將繼續受益於規模經濟和製造優化。

Despite very strong pricing, there was only marginal organic growth in combustible gross profit. This partly reflects the negative geographic mix I already mentioned, with greater volume decline in higher-margin markets like Japan as adult smokers switch to smoke-free product, and better volume trends in lower-margin geographies where smoke-free products are small or not available, such as T rkiye. There were also significant inflationary pressures on leaf, direct materials and other manufacturing costs. Cost increases on leaf, where inventory cover multiple crop years, and wages are likely to carry over into 2024 and should ease thereafter.

儘管定價非常強勁，但可燃毛利潤僅出現邊際有機成長。這在某種程度上反映了我已經提到的負面地理組合，隨著成年吸菸者轉向無菸產品，日本等高利潤市場的銷售下降幅度更大，而無菸產品規模較小或規模較小的低利潤地區的銷售趨勢較好可用，例如 T rkiye。菸葉、直接材料和其他製造成本也面臨巨大的通膨壓力。菸葉成本增加，庫存涵蓋多個作物年份，工資可能會延續到 2024 年，此後應該會有所緩解。

Moving now to Swedish Match, which delivered outstanding performance in its first full year as part of PMI with adjusted pro forma currency-neutral top line growth of plus 26% in Q4 and plus 20% in 2023.

現在轉向瑞典火柴公司，作為 PMI 的一部分，該公司在其第一個全年中表現出色，調整後的預計貨幣中性收入在第四季度增長了 26%，在 2023 年增長了 20%。

When we announced our offer for Swedish Match in 2022, we targeted a return on investment in excess of our cost of capital within 5 years. With the growth of ZYN surpassing our expectations, we now expect to achieve this well ahead of time.

當我們在 2022 年宣布瑞典火柴的收購要約時，我們的目標是在 5 年內實現超過資本成本的投資回報。隨著 ZYN 的成長超出了我們的預期，我們現在預計會提前實現這一目標。

ZYN delivered another remarkable U.S. performance with plus 78% volume growth in Q4 and plus 62% in 2023. Internationally, we have launched or relaunched ZYN in 10 markets as planned as we continue to focus on building a truly global brand.

ZYN 在美國的表現再次出色，第四季度銷量增長78%，2023 年銷量增長62%。在國際上，我們已按計劃在10 個市場推出或重新推出ZYN，我們將繼續專注於打造真正的全球品牌。

U.S. cigars posted robust 2023 results, growing net revenues and profit. This was driven by strong pricing following an increase in April, partially offset by volume decline, which reflect lagged competitor pricing and comparison effects.

美國雪茄發布了強勁的 2023 年業績，淨收入和利潤不斷增長。這是由四月份成長後強勁的定價推動的，但銷售下降部分抵消了銷售下降，這反映了競爭對手定價和比較效應的滯後。

ZYN's excellent U.S. progress continued in Q4 with plus 15% sequential growth in 12-months rolling shipments.

ZYN 在第四季度繼續在美國市場取得優異進展，12 個月滾動出貨量較上季成長 15%。

Impressively, category volume share grew for the third consecutive quarter to 72.8%, an increase of plus 5.4 points year-on-year and plus 2 points sequentially. Retail value share also grew during the quarter to 77.4%, highlighting ZYN's premium positioning and superior brand equity.

令人印象深刻的是，品類銷售份額連續第三個季度增長至 72.8%，年增 5.4 個百分點，環比增長 2 個百分點。本季零售價值份額也成長至 77.4%，凸顯了 ZYN 的高端定位和卓越的品牌資產。

This accelerated growth again reflects a broad step-up in nationwide store velocity and gradual distribution expansion as the category gained strong traction with adult nicotine users for its convenience and pleasurable experience.

這種加速成長再次反映出全國商店速度的大幅提升和分銷管道的逐步擴張，因為該類別因其便利性和愉悅的體驗而受到成年尼古丁使用者的強烈關注。

Now focusing on IQOS, starting with user growth. We estimate there were 28.6 million IQOS users as of December 31, representing growth of 1.2 million users in the quarter and plus 3.7 million for the full year, a nice acceleration compared to 2022. This includes notable progress in Japan and Europe in addition to a broad range of other geographies.

現在專注於IQOS，從使用者成長開始。我們估計，截至12 月31 日，IQOS 用戶數量為2860 萬，本季用戶數量增加了120 萬，全年用戶數量增加了370 萬，與2022 年相比，這是一個不錯的增長。這包括日本和歐洲的顯著進展，以及廣泛的其他地區。

ILUMA is now available in essentially all major markets outside Russia and Ukraine, with over 70 million estimated adult users as of December 31, 2023. This reflects the switching of existing IQOS user and the acquisition of adult smokers.

ILUMA 現已在俄羅斯和烏克蘭以外的幾乎所有主要市場推出，截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日，預計成人用戶超過 7000 萬。這反映了現有 IQOS 用戶的轉換和成年吸煙者的獲取。

We expect ILUMA to drive continued strong IQOS user growth in 2024 and beyond. Considering the seasonal fluctuation and volatility in quarterly user estimation, we plan to report this metric on a semiannual basis going forward. With the addition of ZYN to portfolio and the smaller but growing VEEV e-vapor business, we also intend to provide a more holistic view of our total smoke-free user base to investors.

我們預計 ILUMA 將在 2024 年及以後推動 IQOS 用戶持續強勁成長。考慮到季節性波動和季度用戶估算的波動性，我們計劃未來每半年報告一次該指標。隨著 ZYN 加入投資組合以及規模較小但不斷增長的 VEEV 電子煙業務，我們還打算向投資者提供有關我們無菸用戶群總體情況的更全面的視圖。

Moving now to IQOS in the Europe region, where smoke-free products made up more than 45% of Q4 net revenues. Our Q4 adjusted HTU share increased by plus 1.2 points to 9.6% of total cigarette and HTU industry volume. A key driver is the growing uptake of ILUMA, which is available to around 90% of IQOS users in the region after 8 further launches during the quarter.

現在轉向歐洲地區的 IQOS，該地區無菸產品佔第四季度淨收入的 45% 以上。第四季調整後的 HTU 份額增加了 1.2 個百分點，佔捲菸和 HTU 行業總量的 9.6%。一個關鍵的推動因素是 ILUMA 的使用率不斷增長，在本季度進一步推出 8 次後，該地區約 90% 的 IQOS 用戶都可以使用該產品。

In the EU, 11 markets, making up nearly 30% of regional IQOS volumes, adopted the Delegated Directive to implement a characterizing flavor ban on heated tobacco product and implemented clean-shelf policies in October. While still early days, we estimate only a small impact on offtake as consumers adjust, as well as on trade inventory levels.

在歐盟，佔該地區 IQOS 銷售近 30% 的 11 個市場通過了授權指令，對加熱菸草產品實施特色風味禁令，並於 10 月實施了清潔貨架政策。雖然還處於早期階段，但我們估計，隨著消費者的調整，對承購量以及貿易庫存水準的影響很小。

Indeed, adjusted IMS volume continue to exhibit very good sequential growth and reached a record high 12.4 billion unit on a 4-quarter moving average. This reflects double-digit year-on-year progression of plus 13% in Q4 despite the lack of growth in Ukraine.

事實上，調整後的 IMS 銷售量持續表現出非常好的環比成長，並在 4 季移動平均數上達到 124 億單位的歷史新高。這反映了儘管烏克蘭經濟成長乏力，第四季仍實現了兩位數的年增 13%。

We expect the remaining EU markets to adopt the characterizing flavor ban in 2024 and estimate a full year consumer adjustment impact of around 2 billion units on both shipment and IMS, representing less than 5% of regional volume and less than 2% of total PMI. This is consistent with other past flavor restrictions such as the EU ban applied to combustibles in 2020. Based on the initial data from market that have enacted the ban, our fundamental view remains the same. We do not expect a meaningful change in the structural trajectory of the category and indeed, expect Europe adjusted IMS progression to be broadly in line with the group growth rate in 2024.

我們預計其餘歐盟市場將在2024 年採用特色風味禁令，並估計全年消費者調整對出貨量和IMS 的影響約為20 億個單位，佔區域銷售的不到5%，佔總PMI 的不到2%。這與過去的其他風味限制一致，例如歐盟在 2020 年對可燃物實施的禁令。根據頒布禁令的市場初步數據，我們的基本觀點保持不變。我們預計該類別的結構軌跡不會發生有意義的變化，事實上，預計歐洲調整後的 IMS 進展將與 2024 年的集團成長率大致一致。

Europe is also an important geography for innovation. LEVIA zero-tobacco HTUs were launched in the Czech Republic in mid-October through limited channels with an encouraging initial response. We plan a broader Czech rollout later this month and further market launches this year.

歐洲也是創新的重要地區。 LEVIA 零菸草 HTU 於 10 月中旬透過有限管道在捷克共和國推出，初步反應令人鼓舞。我們計劃本月稍後在捷克進行更廣泛的推廣，並在今年進一步推出市場。

In Japan, the heat-not-burn category now represents close to 40% of the total industry, with IQOS driving its growth and reaching over 8.5 million adult users.

在日本，加熱不燃燒類別目前佔整個行業的近 40%，其中 IQOS 推動了其成長，覆蓋了超過 850 萬成年用戶。

In Q4, the adjusted total tobacco share for our HTU brands increased by 3.1 points to 27.6%, with offtake shares surpassing 34% in Tokyo. Adjusted IMS volume increased by plus 14.5% year-over-year for 2023 and plus 13.4% in Q4 alone, reaching a record high of almost 10 billion units on a 4-quarter moving average. Such impressive growth in a market with already high category penetration is a clear testament to the sustainable potential of IQOS around the world.

第四季度，我們的 HTU 品牌調整後的菸草總份額增加了 3.1 個百分點，達到 27.6%，東京的承購份額超過 34%。 2023 年調整後的 IMS 銷量年增 14.5%，光第四季就成長 13.4%，以第四季行動平均值計算，達到近 100 億台的歷史新高。在品類滲透率已經很高的市場中，如此令人印象深刻的成長清楚地證明了 IQOS 在全球的永續潛力。

HTU shipment volume returned to a more normalized state in the fourth quarter as compared to a tough prior year inventory comparison following the substantial completion of the transition back to sea freight in Q3.

在第三季度基本上完成向海運的過渡後，與去年的庫存比較相比，第四季度的 HTU 發貨量恢復到更正常的狀態。

In addition to strong IQOS share gain in developed countries, we continue to see very promising growth in low and middle-income markets. This slide highlights a selection of Q4 key city offtake shares across markets in Eastern Europe, Africa, Asia and Latin America.

除了已開發國家 IQOS 份額的強勁成長外，我們還繼續看到低收入和中等收入市場的成長前景非常光明。這張投影片重點介紹了東歐、非洲、亞洲和拉丁美洲市場第四季主要城市的承購份額。

Egypt continues to impress with Cairo offtake share up plus 3 points to 9.4%, also noting encouraging results elsewhere in the region, such as Morocco and Lebanon. Indonesia also saw notable progress in its capital city, especially given limited commercialization.

埃及繼續給人留下深刻印象，開羅承購份額增加了 3 個百分點，達到 9.4%，該地區其他地方（例如摩洛哥和黎巴嫩）也取得了令人鼓舞的業績。印尼的首都也取得了顯著的進步，特別是考慮到商業化程度有限。

We continue to see dynamic offtake volume growth across these important future markets, with the city shares towards the right of this chart, an indication of the exciting potential.

我們繼續看到這些重要的未來市場的承購量不斷增長，其中城市份額位於該圖表的右側，這表明了令人興奮的潛力。

While we have already covered the margin dynamic on combustibles, our 2023 commercial performance was very robust with organic top line growth of plus 5.5%. This reflects both strong pricing with notable contribution from Germany and Indonesia, and positive share performance within a resilient international category.

雖然我們已經涵蓋了可燃物的利潤動態，但我們 2023 年的商業業績非常強勁，有機收入成長超過 5.5%。這不僅反映了德國和印尼的顯著貢獻所帶來的強勁定價，也反映了具有彈性的國際類別中積極的股票表現。

Our cigarette category share grew by plus 0.1 points in Q4 and plus 0.2 in 2023, with notable contribution from Egypt, Poland and T rkiye. Although flattered by competitor supply constraint in Egypt, which may normalize in '24, we again achieved our ongoing objective of stable category share excluding this effect, despite the impact of IQOS cannibalization. This remains key as our leadership in combustibles helps to maximize switching to smoke-free products.

我們的菸品類份額在第四季度增長了 0.1 個百分點，到 2023 年增長了 0.2 個百分點，其中埃及、波蘭和土耳其的貢獻顯著。儘管對埃及競爭對手的供應限制感到受寵若驚（這種情況可能會在 24 年恢復正常），但排除這種影響，我們再次實現了穩定品類份額的持續目標，儘管存在 IQOS 蠶食的影響。這仍然是關鍵，因為我們在可燃物方面的領先地位有助於最大限度地轉向無菸產品。

This combustible share performance combined with the structural growth of IQOS, led to an increase of plus 0.6 points of international cigarette and HTU share for the full year. As mentioned previously, our superior share of smoke-free products gives us a formidable platform for sustainable share gains with superior unit economics.

可燃份額的表現加上 IQOS 的結構性增長，導致全年國際捲菸和 HTU 份額增加了 0.6 個百分點。如前所述，我們無菸產品的卓越份額為我們提供了一個強大的平台，以卓越的單位經濟效益實現可持續的份額成長。

Before we turn to the 2024 outlook, let me briefly reflect on our strong delivery over the past 3 years in spite of a number of substantial headwinds. The performance was clearly positive compared to our currency-neutral 2021-2023 target of more than 5% organic top line and more than 9% bottom line growth supported by overall growing volumes.

在我們展望 2024 年前景之前，讓我簡要回顧過去 3 年儘管面臨許多重大阻力，但我們仍取得了強勁的業績。與我們在貨幣中性的 2021-2023 年目標（在整體銷售成長的支持下，有機營收成長超過 5%，淨利潤成長超過 9%）相比，這一業績顯然是正面的。

For the next 3 years, we target a similar strong volume delivery, a plus 6% to plus 8% organic net revenue CAGR and a step-up in organic operating income growth to plus 8% to plus 10%. We target an adjusted EPS CAGR of plus 9% to plus 11% ex currency growth at constant 2023 corporate tax rate, including an increase in net financing costs, which skews towards the first year of the period in 2024.

未來 3 年，我們的目標是實現類似的強勁交付量、有機淨收入複合年增長率 6% 至 8% 以上，以及有機營業收入增長 8% 至 10% 以上。我們的目標是，以2023 年不變企業稅率計算，調整後每股盈餘複合年增長率為9% 至11%（除貨幣外），其中包括淨融資成本的增加，該增長傾向於2024 年第一年。

Okay. This brings me to the outlook for 2024, where we expect a strong acceleration in smoke-free performance across IQOS volume, smoke-free net revenue and gross profit.

好的。這讓我展望了 2024 年，我們預計無菸在 IQOS 銷售、無菸淨收入和毛利方面的表現將強勁加速。

We forecast the highest-ever absolute increase in HTU adjusted IMS volumes to deliver plus 14% to plus 16% growth in percentage terms despite the inclusion of an estimated impact of around 2 billion units from consumer adjustment to the EU characterizing flavor ban I mentioned earlier and essentially no offtake growth in Russia. For shipment volume, we target more than 140 billion units, subject to the usual inherent volatility of shipment timing, new market launches and potential supply chain disruption, such as the ongoing situation in the Red Sea. While shipment growth rates naturally follow adjusted IMS over time, there is a possibility of some lower inventory level compared to 2023 given the substantial completion of ILUMA launches and opportunities for working capital optimization.

我們預測，儘管考慮了消費者調整對我之前提到的歐盟調味品禁令帶來的約20 億單位的影響，但HTU 調整後IMS 銷量的絕對增幅將達到有史以來最高，以百分比計算將實現+ 14％ 至+ 16％ 的增長俄羅斯的承購量基本上沒有增長。對於出貨量，我們的目標是超過 1,400 億台，但會受到出貨時間、新市場推出和潛在供應鏈中斷（例如紅海當前局勢）等固有波動的影響。雖然隨著時間的推移，出貨量成長率自然會隨著IMS 的調整而變化，但考慮到ILUMA 發布的基本完成和營運資本優化的機會，與2023 年相比，庫存水準可能會有所下降。

We expect continued excellent U.S. ZYN volume growth to around 520 million cans. We have also accelerated our capacity expansion plan to support this further significant step up in volume and to manage inventory levels, which are naturally affected by the recent level of growth.

我們預計美國 ZYN 銷售將持續強勁成長，達到 5.2 億罐左右。我們還加快了產能擴張計劃，以支持銷量的進一步大幅增長並管理庫存水平，這自然會受到近期增長水平的影響。

Such a strong outlook for IQOS and ZYN means we expect to deliver an acceleration in organic smoke-free top line growth compared to 2023, reaching close to $15 billion in net revenue at prevailing exchange rates. This supports a total PMI forecast of plus 6.5% to plus 8% organic net revenue progression, including a fourth consecutive year of total volume growth and mid-single-digit combustible pricing.

IQOS 和 ZYN 如此強勁的前景意味著我們預計有機無菸營收將比 2023 年加速成長，以現行匯率計算淨收入將達到接近 150 億美元。這支持了總 PMI 預測的 6.5% 至 8% 有機淨收入成長，包括連續第四年的總銷售成長和中個位數的可燃物定價。

We also forecast an acceleration in smoke-free gross profit growth from the organic plus 19% delivered in 2023 as IQOS profitability expands and ZYN's excellent economics continue. We expect smoke-free to again drive the lion's share of our forecast organic OI growth of plus 8% to plus 9.5%, notably given the enduring cost pressure and negative geographic mix in combustible I just mentioned. This naturally implies organic margin expansion, even factoring in the ongoing technical dilution impact of third-party manufacturing in Indonesia.

我們也預測，隨著 IQOS 獲利能力的擴大和 ZYN 出色的經濟效益的持續，2023 年無菸有機毛利將加速成長 19%。我們預計無菸將再次推動我們預測的有機 OI 成長（+8% 至+9.5%）的最大份額，特別是考慮到我剛才提到的持續的成本壓力和可燃物的負面地理組合。這自然意味著有機利潤率的擴張，甚至考慮到印尼第三方製造持續的技術稀釋影響。

We expect a meaningful organic improvement in overall gross margin, excluding technical impact, and a very limited currency impact on adjusted OI margin. This forecast includes notable capability investment in the U.S. But as mentioned at Investor Day, we still expect to deliver strong double-digit operating income growth in this market.

我們預期整體毛利率將出現有意義的有機改善（不包括技術影響），且貨幣對調整後的 OI 利潤率的影響非常有限。這項預測包括在美國的顯著產能投資，但正如投資者日所提到的，我們仍然預計該市場將實現強勁的兩位數營業收入成長。

As flagged at last year in Investor Day, we anticipate an increased net financing expense this year as debt is renewed at higher rates. We forecast a range of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion as compared to $1.1 billion in 2023. We also assume a higher effective corporate tax rate due to Russia suspension of certain double tax treaties and earnings mix. These tax and interest factors combined impact our currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth projection by around 2 percentage points.

正如去年投資者日所指出的那樣，隨著債務以更高的利率更新，我們預計今年的淨融資費用將會增加。我們預計 2023 年的稅率為 13 億至 14 億美元，而 2023 年為 11 億美元。由於俄羅斯暫停某些雙重課稅條約和收益組合，我們也假設有效企業稅率較高。這些稅收和利息因素綜合影響我們的貨幣中性調整後稀釋每股收益成長預測約 2 個百分點。

Accordingly, we forecast currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth of plus 7% to plus 9%. This translates into an adjusted diluted EPS range of $6.32 to $6.44, including an unfavorable currency impact of $0.11 at prevailing rates. This notably includes the net favorable impact of $0.13 related to the revaluation of monetary balances in hyperinflationary economies in 2023, skewed to the second half comparison.

因此，我們預期貨幣中性調整後稀釋每股盈餘將成長 7% 至 9%。這意味著調整後的攤薄每股收益範圍為 6.32 美元至 6.44 美元，其中包括以現行匯率計算的 0.11 美元的不利貨幣影響。這尤其包括與 2023 年惡性通貨膨脹經濟體貨幣餘額重估相關的 0.13 美元的淨有利影響，偏向下半年的比較。

Moving to the shape of expected 2024 performance on a quarterly basis. We anticipate good double-digit growth in adjusted IMS HTU growth every quarter, supporting the full year forecast of plus 14% to plus 16%.

轉向 2024 年季度業績預期。我們預計調整後的 IMS HTU 每季都會實現兩位數的成長，支持全年成長 14% 至 16% 的預測。

We forecast a strong Q1 overall with HTU shipment volume of 31 million to 32 billion and continued strong volume growth from ZYN. We expect organic top line and operating income growth to be broadly consistent with the full year outlook, which implies organic margin expansion as with the full year.

我們預計第一季整體表現強勁，HTU 出貨量將達到 3,100 萬至 320 億，ZYN 的出貨量將持續強勁成長。我們預計有機營收和營業收入成長將與全年前景大致一致，這意味著全年有機利潤率將成長。

We project strong Q1 currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth of plus 7% to plus 10%. This translates to a range of $1.37 to $1.42, including a negative currency variance of $0.10 at prevailing rates, with currency comparisons improving in the second half as we lap the Argentina impact of 2023.

我們預計第一季貨幣中性調整後攤薄每股收益將強勁成長 7% 至 10%。這相當於 1.37 美元至 1.42 美元的範圍，包括以現行匯率計算的 0.10 美元負貨幣差異，隨著我們經歷了 2023 年阿根廷的影響，下半年貨幣比較有所改善。

Our business remains highly cash generative. However, the $9.2 billion in 2023 operating cash flow was lower than expected. This was due to currency effects on net earnings including the Argentine peso devaluation, other year-end currency impact and higher-than-expected working capital needs.

我們的業務仍具有很高的現金產出能力。然而，2023年92億美元的營運現金流低於預期。這是由於貨幣對淨利潤的影響，包括阿根廷比索貶值、其他年終貨幣影響以及高於預期的營運資金需求。

In 2024, we target between $10 billion and $11 billion in operating cash flow at prevailing exchange rate and subject to working capital requirements.

到 2024 年，我們的目標是實現 100 億至 110 億美元的營運現金流（以現行匯率計算）並遵守營運資本要求。

We continue to prioritize investing in innovation and the growth of our smoke-free portfolio. In 2024, we expect capital expenditure of around $1.2 billion, including the ZYN capacity expansion I just mentioned.

我們繼續優先投資於創新和無菸產品組合的成長。 2024年，我們預計資本支出約為12億美元，其中包括我剛才提到的ZYN產能擴張。

Deleveraging remains a key priority for us. And as expected, our 2023 net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was around 3x given the 2023 purchase of the remaining Swedish Match minorities and the final U.S. IQOS payment to Altria.

去槓桿仍然是我們的首要任務。正如預期的那樣，考慮到 2023 年購買了剩餘的瑞典火柴少數股權以及最終美國 IQOS 向奧馳亞付款，我們 2023 年的淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率約為 3 倍。

We target much better progress of 0.3 to 0.5x deleverage in 2024, driven by continued EBITDA growth and strong cash flow generation. We continue to target a ratio of around 2x by the end of 2026, driven with buybacks to be considered once confirmed we are on track.

在 EBITDA 持續成長和強勁現金流產生的推動下，我們的目標是 2024 年去槓桿化取得更大進展，達到 0.3 至 0.5 倍。我們繼續目標是到 2026 年底將比率提高到 2 倍左右，一旦確認我們步入正軌，就會考慮回購。

Finally, our commitment to our progressive dividend policy is unwavering and in line with our long-term commitment to return cash to shareholders.

最後，我們對漸進式股利政策的承諾堅定不移，並且符合我們向股東返還現金的長期承諾。

I will now turn it back to Jacek for concluding remarks.

現在我將把它轉回雅采克以供總結發言。

Thank you, Emmanuel. Let me now take a moment to cover our key strategic priorities for 2024.

謝謝你，伊曼紐。現在讓我花點時間談談我們 2024 年的關鍵策略重點。

First is supporting the sustained growth momentum of IQOS through continuous innovation. This includes leveraging the rollout of ILUMA to maximize user growth, while innovating further on both devices and consumables.

首先是透過持續創新支撐IQOS的持續成長動力。這包括利用 ILUMA 的推出來最大限度地提高用戶成長，同時在設備和耗材方面進一步創新。

Second is to continue the strong U.S. growth of ZYN, supported by targeted commercial investment, long-term capacity expansion and organizational infrastructure, which will also support IQOS. Outside the U.S., we intend to continue developing our integrated multi-category offering to adult nicotine users with further launches of ZYN and, where relevant, our VEEV e-vapor portfolio.

其次是在有針對性的商業投資、長期產能擴張和組織基礎設施的支持下，繼續 ZYN 在美國的強勁成長，這也將為 IQOS 提供支援。在美國以外，我們打算繼續為成人尼古丁使用者開發綜合多類別產品，進一步推出 ZYN 以及相關的 VEEV 電子煙產品組合。

Of course, 2024 will be a landmark year for IQOS in the U.S. While the ultimate launch of IQOS ILUMA is the main priority, we continue to prepare for the first city tests of the IQOS 3 blade product starting in Q2 this year. These small-scale pilot launches will allow us to experiment with different aspects of commercialization and support our drive for at-scale commercial success once ILUMA is authorized. While we have no update on the expected PMTA time line, the patent settlement agreement announced last week allows for commercialization of both blade and induction products while mitigating risks of patent-related disruptions and enables us to leverage the scale, optimized cost and flexibility of our global supply chain.

當然，2024年將是IQOS在美國具有里程碑意義的一年。雖然IQOS ILUMA的最終推出是主要優先事項，但我們繼續為今年第二季度開始的IQOS 3刀片產品的首次城市測試做準備。這些小規模試點啟動將使我們能夠嘗試商業化的不同方面，並在 ILUMA 獲得授權後支持我們推動大規模商業成功。雖然我們沒有關於預期PMTA 時間表的最新消息，但上周宣布的專利和解協議允許葉片和感應產品商業化，同時減輕與專利相關的中斷風險​​，並使我們能夠利用我們的規模、優化成本和靈活性。全球供應鏈。

In combustibles, we continue to target a stable category share over time despite the impact of IQOS cannibalization while taking judicious pricing actions to drive a positive profit contribution.

在可燃品方面，儘管受到 IQOS 蠶食的影響，但隨著時間的推移，我們繼續以穩定的品類份額為目標，同時採取明智的定價行動來推動積極的利潤貢獻。

Our capital allocation priorities are crystal clear. We will continue to invest in the growth of smoke-free products and our commitment to the dividend remains steadfast. Following the acquisition of Swedish Match, deleveraging remains our key balance sheet objective.

我們的資本配置優先事項非常明確。我們將繼續投資於無菸產品的成長，並且我們對股息的承諾仍然堅定。收購瑞典火柴後，去槓桿化仍然是我們資產負債表的主要目標。

We aim to continue our excellent progress on sustainability initiatives, including those related to product impact such as youth access prevention and post-consumer waste.

我們的目標是繼續在永續發展舉措方面取得出色進展，包括與產品影響相關的舉措，例如預防青少年接觸和消費後浪費。

Finally, and importantly, we remain committed to transforming the tobacco harm reduction landscape by providing superior alternatives to adult smokers who would otherwise continue smoking and advocating for science-based regulations.

最後，也是重要的是，我們仍然致力於改變菸草減害格局，為否則會繼續吸菸的成年吸菸者提供更好的替代品，並倡導基於科學的法規。

We will be expanding further on many of these topics at the CAGNY Conference in 2 weeks' time.

我們將在兩週後的 CAGNY 會議上進一步討論其中的許多主題。

Let me now conclude today's presentation. Overall, our business delivered a strong 2023 performance in the face of notable cost headwinds driven by structural smoke-free momentum.

現在讓我結束今天的演講。總體而言，儘管結構性無菸勢頭推動了顯著的成本阻力，我們的業務在 2023 年仍取得了強勁的業績。

The continued excellent performance of IQOS and remarkable growth of ZYN strengthened their positions as leading brands with excellent equity. Combined with our unrivaled commercial and innovative capabilities, we have a powerful platform to expedite our smoke-free future as we broaden our portfolio and reach to adult smokers.

IQOS的持續優異表現和ZYN的顯著成長，鞏固了其作為擁有優良資產的領導品牌的地位。結合我們無與倫比的商業和創新能力，我們擁有一個強大的平台，可以隨著我們擴大產品組合併涵蓋成年吸菸者，加速我們的無菸未來。

We expect 2024 to be a year of accelerated growth for smoke-free products and remain confident in our 2024-2026 growth targets. We have exciting opportunities in the U.S. and internationally, which we are fully dedicated to capture as we progress towards our ambition of being sustainably smoke-free by 2030.

我們預計 2024 年將是無菸產品加速成長的一年，並對 2024-2026 年的成長目標保持信心。我們在美國和國際上擁有令人興奮的機會，我們將全力抓住這些機會，以實現 2030 年可持續無菸的目標。

Finally and importantly, our strong growth outlook and highly cash-generative business underpins our ability to deleverage while returning cash to shareholders.

最後也是重要的是，我們強勁的成長前景和高現金產生能力的業務支撐了我們去槓桿化同時向股東返還現金的能力。

Thank you. And Emmanuel and I are now happy to answer your questions.

謝謝。伊曼紐爾和我現在很高興回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。

Hi, everyone. I actually wanted to ask a high-level question on the year. You originally guided FX-neutral EPS growth in '23 of 7% to 9%. Yet, you really did finish out the year a lot stronger, reporting 11% currency-neutral EPS growth. So as you look back, what were some of the key areas of outperformance versus your initial expectations? And then as you think about this year, you're initially guiding to 7% to 9% FX-neutral EPS growth again. So just trying to understand how conservative this may be, especially considering your 9% to 11% midterm growth target?

大家好。我實際上想問一個關於這一年的高級問題。您最初指導 2023 年匯率中性每股收益成長 7% 至 9%。然而，今年的業績確實要強勁得多，扣除貨幣因素後每股收益成長了 11%。那麼，當您回顧過去時，哪些關鍵領域的表現超出了您最初的預期？然後，當你考慮今年時，你最初的目標是在匯率中立的情況下每股收益再次成長 7% 至 9%。那麼，只是想了解這可能有多保守，特別是考慮到您 9% 至 11% 的中期成長目標？

So Bonnie, with regards to 2023, I think the momentum which we have in the category is in Japan, is really well worth singling out. And despite the fact that as you know IQOS occupies a very sizable part of the segment, I mean where we capture well above our segments, I think we captured about 80% of the entire segment growth in Japan. So this is very strong. Japan is on the forefront of a smoke-free transformation. We're approaching the year, 10 (inaudible) of IQOS in Japan. And if I just look over the last few weeks how category is continuously expansions in Japan, I think in the Tokyo area, the smoke-free products now about exceeded the size of the cigarette category. So if IQOS continues after 10 years participating in this phenomenal growth, this is really worth singling out.

Bonnie，關於 2023 年，我認為我們在這一類別中的勢頭是在日本，非常值得特別指出。儘管如你所知，IQOS 佔據了該細分市場的很大一部分，但我的意思是，我們佔據了遠高於我們細分市場的份額，我認為我們佔據了日本整個細分市場成長的80 % 左右。所以這個是非常強的。日本處於無菸轉型的前沿。我們即將迎來 IQOS 在日本上市的第十年（聽不清楚）。如果我看看過去幾週日本的品類是如何不斷擴張的，我認為在東京地區，無菸產品現在大約超過了捲菸品類的規模。因此，如果 IQOS 在 10 年後繼續參與這種驚人的成長，那麼這確實值得一提。

Clearly, ZYN and as we indicated very much, we've been very keen and very pleased that we could conclude the acquisition of Swedish Match, that adds the important element of our portfolio of alternative smoking, the pouches and obviously, creates a very good opening for us in entering the U.S. market and that ZYN is clearly is growing above their expectations. What is very important is we hear from time to time, quite rightly, conversations about some unintended consequences about the use of the product. I am so pleased with both IQOS and with ZYN actually are delivering of as they were designed for, i.e. going after adult smokers in the U.S. above 21 years. We're all familiar with the CDC data, less than 80% (inaudible), the same is for IQOS and international. So we have a good -- my view is we have a very good, sustainable growing 2 fabulous propositions in a smoke-free product, and we're also trying here to be very focused from a financial perspective with regards to the [e-vape].

顯然，ZYN 以及我們非常指出的那樣，我們非常熱衷並非常高興能夠完成對瑞典火柴的收購，這增加了我們替代吸煙產品組合的重要元素，即煙袋，顯然，創造了一個非常好的為我們進入美國市場打開了大門，ZYN 的成長顯然超出了他們的預期。非常重要的是，我們不時地聽到關於使用該產品的一些意想不到的後果的討論，這是正確的。我對 IQOS 和 ZYN 真正實現的目標感到非常滿意，即針對美國 21 歲以上的成年吸菸者。我們都熟悉CDC的數據，不到80%（聽不清楚），IQOS和國際也是如此。因此，我們有一個很好的——我的觀點是，我們在無菸產品方面有一個非常好的、可持續增長的兩個神話般的主張，而且我們也試圖從財務角度非常關注[電子-電子煙]。

So right now, if we [roll] this forward to 2024, I think that Japan is on the good momentum. ZYN in the U.S. continues this momentum. Europe is going very strongly very well. Yes, we have this distortion maybe potential headwinds we're getting there. We very clearly indicated the $2 billion potential impact from the flavor ban in the EU. But other than that, these key geographies and these key geographies also are very important from the margin perspective expansion, they really are on the positive side.

因此，現在，如果我們將其推遲到 2024 年，我認為日本勢頭良好。美國的 ZYN 延續了這一勢頭。歐洲發展得非常強勁、非常順利。是的，我們有這種扭曲，也許是我們到達那裡的潛在阻力。我們非常明確地指出了歐盟香料禁令可能帶來 20 億美元的影響。但除此之外，這些關鍵地區和這些關鍵地區從利潤擴張的角度來看也非常重要，它們確實處於積極的一面。

And I don't want to sound negative on the rest of the world. However, one thing you should note that, on occasions, there might be some conversations around the growth trajectory of IQOS and so on. And you remember during Investors Day, I've been very clear. We're running IQOS 10 consecutive years of fabulous growth despite the fact that we essentially lost any growth, access to any growth in Russia and Ukraine. And historically, I mean, Russia alone was delivering, and depends how you now -- which period you pick up, but easily above the 4 billion maybe even 5 billion per annum growth of the category. So I think we need to look at this trajectory from this perspective, which makes me even more confident about our 3-year outlook.

我不想讓世界其他地方聽起來消極。不過，需要注意的一點是，有時可能會出現一些圍繞 IQOS 的成長軌跡等主題的討論。你還記得在投資者日期間，我已經說得很清楚了。儘管我們基本上失去了任何成長，失去了在俄羅斯和烏克蘭的任何成長機會，但我們的 IQOS 連續 10 年實現了驚人的成長。我的意思是，從歷史上看，只有俄羅斯在實現這一目標，這取決於你現在的表現——你在哪個時期開始，但該類別的年增長率很容易超過 40 億甚至 50 億。所以我認為我們需要從這個角度來看待這個軌跡，這讓我對我們的三年前景更有信心。

Okay. That was helpful. And then I did want to ask a little bit more on margins. Just hoping for a little bit more color on your margins in Q4, especially in Americas, where they were actually negative. I'm assuming, I think you called this out, a key driver of this is your investments ahead of the IQOS relaunch in the U.S. in May. So in the context of this, how should we think about operating income growth in Americas this year? Will it continue to be negative? And then for the full year of '24 year, just total company, your guidance is for FX-neutral revenue growth and operating income growth does imply operating margin expansion. So could you maybe touch on your expectations for gross margin and OpEx in the context of that?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我確實想多問一點關於利潤的問題。只是希望第四季的利潤能有更多的色彩，尤其是在美洲，那裡的利潤實際上是負面的。我想，我想你也指出了這一點，其中一個關鍵驅動因素是你在 IQOS 5 月在美國重新推出之前的投資。那麼在此背景下，我們該如何看待今年美洲地區的營業收入成長呢？會繼續為負數嗎？然後，對於 24 年全年，就整個公司而言，您的指導是針對外匯中性收入成長，而營業收入成長確實意味著營業利潤率擴張。那麼您能否談談您對毛利率和營運支出的預期？

Yes, Bonnie, Emmanuel can chip in a little more details. I think in the Americas segment, where it's more the impact of the devaluation in Argentina which drove the margins down rather than the U.S. market. Specifically about the U.S. market, yes, there is the increased investment also to continue supporting ZYN growth, ZYN expansion, but also in preparing Swedish Match organization or Philip Morris International in the U.S. organization for being able to handle IQOS soon and obviously have the organizations, which is after the opportunities and the challenges of the U.S. market. So there are some investments which are already flowing through the P&L even ahead of the IQOS process start of the commercialization.

是的，邦妮，伊曼紐爾可以提供更多細節。我認為在美洲市場，更多的是阿根廷貶值的影響導致利潤率下降，而不是美國市場。具體到美國市場，是的，增加的投資也是為了繼續支持ZYN 的成長、ZYN 的擴張，而且還為瑞典火柴組織或菲利普莫里斯國際公司在美國的組織做準備，以便能夠很快處理IQOS，並且顯然有這些組織，這是繼美國市場的機會與挑戰之後。因此，甚至在 IQOS 流程開始商業化之前，就有一些投資已經流經損益表。

Emmanuel, do you want to?

伊曼紐爾，你願意嗎？

Yes, just to complement -- to answer your question, Bonnie, and complement what Jacek was saying on what is behind the higher-than-expected performance for '23. Clearly, as I described, a very strong dynamic on the volume on the commercial dimension, if you want. But we've been very pleased as well with the development of our margin on our smoke-free product. And we are today seeing the margin both on IQOS and on ZYN being above the average margin on CC. We are making progress on the profitability of the IQOS product and we have some price increase in Q4 overall. So that was the planned dynamic, but it is happening maybe even a bit better than what we're expecting, and we expect that to continue in Q4.

是的，只是為了補充 - 回答你的問題，Bonnie，並補充 Jacek 所說的關於 23 年業績高於預期背後的原因。顯然，正如我所描述的，如果你願意的話，商業維度上的數量非常強勁。但我們對無菸產品利潤的發展也感到非常滿意。今天我們看到 IQOS 和 ZYN 的利潤率都高於 CC 的平均利潤率。我們在 IQOS 產品的獲利能力方面取得了進展，並且在第四季度整體價格有所上漲。這就是計劃中的動態，但它的發生可能比我們的預期要好一些，我們預計這種情況將在第四季度繼續下去。

And in that perspective, I mean, clearly, the U.S. is a fantastic market. We've described the fact that the margin of ZYN in the U.S. is best-in-class among our portfolio of product. And therefore, make no mistake, even if indeed, we're going to continue to invest in the U.S., the U.S. is going to be super nicely accretive in all parameters of our P&L at the level of the, of course, revenue growth but also at the level of the margin evolution and at the level of the operating income. And we reflect the fact that we talk about double-digit growth and very strong double-digit growth. U.S. is a very powerful contributor to our financial performance.

從這個角度來看，我的意思是，美國顯然是一個非常棒的市場。我們已經描述了這樣一個事實：ZYN 在美國的利潤率在我們的產品組合中是同類中最好的。因此，毫無疑問，即使我們確實將繼續在美國投資，美國在我們損益表的所有參數上都將在收入增長的水平上實現超級良好的增長，但是同樣在利潤率演變和營業收入水平上。我們反映了一個事實，即我們談論兩位數增長和非常強勁的兩位數增長。美國對我們的財務表現做出了非常強大的貢獻。

Okay. Emmanuel, if I may just clarify something then. For this year, you are expecting gross margin and possibly op margin expansion? Based on your guidance, it implies op margin.

好的。伊曼紐爾，我可以澄清一下嗎？今年，您預計毛利率和營運利潤率可能會擴大嗎？根據您的指導，這意味著營運利潤。

Yes. We do absolutely, Bonnie. Yes

是的。我們絕對願意，邦妮。是的

We'll go next to Gaurav Jain with Barclays.

接下來我們將與巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain 進行對話。

Two questions from me. One is just to clarify the Argentinian peso impact. So you have a $0.19 impact this year, which is linked to balance sheet revaluation. And on the slide, you are using the Argentinian peso rate, which is equal to the spot rate. So there shouldn't be any further balance sheet revaluation down, which means that there is an automatic $0.19 benefit to EPS. Isn't that the way the math works?

我有兩個問題。一是為了澄清阿根廷比索的影響。因此，今年的影響為 0.19 美元，這與資產負債表重估有關。在投影片上，您使用的是阿根廷比索匯率，它等於即期匯率。因此，資產負債表不應進一步重估，這意味著每股收益將自動獲得 0.19 美元的收益。數學不就是這樣的嗎？

Look, of course, we cannot speculate on any further devaluation of the peso. The reality is that the amount in dollar terms has been significantly reduced by the last devaluation. So a further devaluation would impact to a much lower amount. Now I don't know whether more devaluation could come. Frankly, we're not able to anticipate this kind of thing. What you have to take into account is that the basis has been -- in fact, [as] basically with the devaluation in December. So any further devaluation would apply to a lower base in Argentinian peso.

當然，我們不能推測比索會進一步貶值。現實情況是，上次貶值以來，以美元計算的金額已大幅減少。因此，進一步貶值所產生的影響將大大降低。現在我不知道是否會出現更多的貶值。坦白說，我們無法預見這種事情。你必須考慮的是，事實上，基礎基本上就是 12 月的貶值。因此，任何進一步的貶值都將導致阿根廷比索的基數較低。

Sure. Maybe I can ask it separately. And my second question is around ZYN. We are hearing a lot of statements. We had a statement by Chuck Schumer. A lot of investors are concerned, they think that regulation is coming on, then flavors will get banned. So how do you plan to get ahead of this entire potential controversy that could emerge around ZYN?

當然。也許我可以單獨問一下。我的第二個問題是關於 ZYN 的。我們聽到了很多說法。我們收到了查克·舒默的聲明。很多投資人都擔心，他們認為監管即將到來，那麼口味就會被禁止。那麼，您打算如何應對圍繞 ZYN 可能出現的整個潛在爭議呢？

Yes. So we observed over the last few weeks, I heard a lot of conversations around Brazil in social media and generally Internet and media. I think, look, ZYN is in the U.S. market for 10 years, okay? And if you look at the numbers, CDC latest data on the (inaudible) under ages, et cetera, it stays very below. I think it's [50%] which is the lowest from any product nicotine and also other products where there's some major restrictions applied.

是的。因此，我們在過去幾週觀察到，我在社群媒體以及網路和媒體上聽到了巴西各地的許多對話。我想，你看，ZYN 在美國市場已經 10 年了，好嗎？如果你看一下數字，疾病預防控制中心關於（聽不清楚）未成年人的最新數據等等，它仍然非常低。我認為 [50%] 是所有產品中尼古丁含量最低的，也是其他有一些主要限制的產品中最低的。

I think we know what about the Swedish Match marketing practices, and we were taking this very seriously during the acquisition of the (inaudible). We have said that the alignment with Service Match was not only that they were pursuing the smoke-free trajectory, but also that they have a very responsible and a disciplined approach to the marketing as we are on -- with IQOS, with heat-not-burn and the international.

我認為我們了解瑞典火柴的營銷實踐，並且在收購（聽不清楚）期間我們非常認真地對待這一點。我們說過，與 Service Match 的一致不僅在於他們追求無菸軌跡，而且在於他們對行銷採取非常負責任和嚴格的方法，就像我們所做的那樣——使用 IQOS，使用加熱而不是加熱。 -燃燒和國際。

We have reached out to the few people who have been the most vocal too in these conversations with general consumer, but also to FDA and I think the facts are different than sometimes it is being -- trying to be the positions in the media.

我們已經聯繫了少數在與普通消費者的對話中也最直言不諱的人，也聯繫了FDA，我認為事實與有時不同——試圖成為媒體的立場。

So the product is helping adult smokers with very strict with the age verifications. Obviously, when it comes to the conversations among the adults in the social media, that's going a little -- well, going anticipating, frankly speaking, in the territories we wouldn't have a control. ZYN is not using any paid ambassadors or whatever this is being called in the social media. So we think what we're doing is put the right product from the potential of the reduction of the harm where the product is based on science position and the risk reduction continuum, frankly speaking, it is the best nicotine alternative to any another nicotine product, very much obviously versus the cigarette.

因此，該產品正在幫助成年吸菸者進行非常嚴格的年齡驗證。顯然，當談到成年人在社群媒體上的對話時，坦白說，在我們無法控制的領域，這有點令人期待。 ZYN 沒有使用任何付費大使或社群媒體上的任何稱呼。因此，我們認為我們正在做的事情是從減少危害的潛力中推出正確的產品，該產品基於科學立場和風險降低連續體，坦率地說，它是任何其他尼古丁產品的最佳尼古丁替代品，非常明顯與香煙相比。

We have a pending PMTA with FDA and feel the science is very strong and very conclusive on the site. So I feel very confident. From the very beginning of our transformation, solid Swedish Match, we put the marketing team and very much the protection of the youth very, very high on our agenda. So I think it gives me the confidence that, as I said earlier to Bonnie's question, we have a progress, phenomenal growth on the products, which are delivered in a very sustainable manner to adult smoker.

我們與 FDA 正在等待 PMTA，並認為網站的科學性非常強大且非常有結論性。所以我覺得我非常有信心。從我們堅實的瑞典火柴轉型一開始，我們就把行銷團隊和對年輕人的保護放在我們議程的非常非常重要的位置。因此，我認為這給了我信心，正如我之前對邦妮的問題所說的那樣，我們在產品上取得了進步和顯著的增長，這些產品以非常可持續的方式提供給成年吸煙者。

We'll go now to Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.

現在我們請摩根士丹利的帕梅拉·考夫曼。

I have a question about ZYN as well. It's seen phenomenal growth in the U.S. Can you talk about what's driving the acceleration in growth in ZYN in the U.S.? And are there any particular regions where you're seeing stronger growth?

我也有一個關於 ZYN 的問題。在美國出現了驚人的成長。您能談談是什麼推動了 ZYN 在美國的加速成長嗎？您是否在某些特定地區看到了更強勁的成長？

And just on the ZYN guidance, it implies about 35% growth in U.S. shipments, but that seems conservative given the strength that we've seen. So is there anything that would temper ZYN's growth outlook relative to what we're observing?

僅根據 ZYN 的指導，這意味著美國出貨量將成長約 35%，但考慮到我們所看到的強勁勢頭，這似乎有些保守。那麼，與我們觀察到的情況相比，有什麼因素會影響 ZYN 的成長前景嗎？

Yes. So the ZYN, as you might remember from our Investors Day, the profile of the ZYN, when it comes toward the smoke or where the adults are coming from, there is any sourcing very nicely from a combustible cigarette, obviously, serves from the overall categories, including the tobacco-containing pouches, Swedish snus or similar products, but also resourcing from the vape category. So it is being recognized by the growing number of adults, the convenience of usage of Brazil. It is -- another way of looking at ZYN, it is a natural innovation or extension of the Swedish snus product, the tobacco-containing pouches. Obviously, as we know them, some people were not maybe comfortable of having a tobacco in the pouch. There are some optical hygienic type where they may be constraints, et cetera, and ZYN is something which is -- looks cleaner and is white, it doesn't contain tobacco, which might have been for a -- might be for some consumer create some resistance. So this is what I can say.

是的。因此，ZYN，正如您可能還記得我們的投資者日，ZYN 的概況，當涉及煙霧或成年人來自哪裡時，有任何來自可燃香煙的來源非常好，顯然，服務於整體類別，包括含煙草袋、瑞典鼻煙或類似產品，但也從電子煙類別中取得資源。因此，巴西使用的便利性正在被越來越多的成年人所認識。這是看待 ZYN 的另一種方式，它是瑞典鼻煙產品（含菸草袋）的自然創新或延伸。顯然，據我們所知，有些人可能不太願意在煙袋裡裝菸草。有一些光學衛生類型，它們可能受到限制，等等，而 ZYN 是一種看起來更乾淨而且是白色的東西，它不含煙草，這可能是為了一些消費者創造的一些阻力。這就是我能說的。

I think the product has a good trajectory. The market is a large market in the U.S. with a well developed e-vape category, obviously, still a very sizable combustible cigarette category and also many other oral tobacco forms, so it's a nice [sourcing] for ZYN, which is appealing to these audiences.

我認為該產品有良好的發展軌跡。美國市場是一個很大的市場，擁有發達的電子煙類別，顯然，仍然是一個非常大的可燃捲煙類別以及許多其他口腔煙草形式，所以這對ZYN 來說是一個很好的[採購]，這對這些人很有吸引力觀眾。

With regards to your comments [about the] number of accounts forecasted (inaudible) our guidance for next year. Agreed. We are very well familiar with that (inaudible) trend in the U.S. Can ZYN surprise us to the positive? Yes. Can -- but guidance is built on the number of the assumptions, right? I mean it's a global business, multi-category and there are some headwinds, which we are aware today. I'm not sure whether there's a lot of materialized, but I think it's a matter of prudence is that this part of the year at the beginning of the year to single them amount and be prudent, but there are also some upsides and the tailwinds, which we are well aware of.

關於您對預測（聽不清楚）的帳戶數量的評論，我們對明年的指導。同意。我們非常熟悉美國的這種（聽不清楚）趨勢。ZYN 能帶給我們正面的驚喜嗎？是的。可以——但是指導是建立在假設數量的基礎上的，對嗎？我的意思是，這是一個全球性的、多類別的業務，並且存在一些我們今天意識到的不利因素。我不確定是否有很多物化，但我認為這是一個謹慎的問題，今年年初的這段時間對它們進行單量並要謹慎，但也有一些好處和順風，我們都很清楚。

The year-end [faults] will come to the Q1. I mean as a (inaudible), we build the confidence as you go through the year.

年末的[故障]將出現在第一季。我的意思是，作為（聽不清楚），我們會在您度過這一年的過程中建立信心。

Yes. And Pam, to clarify the guidance here, we are coming with a growth year-on-year that would be similar than the one we've been experiencing in terms of total volume growth and not in a big percentage year versus '23 and '22. So these are similar volume growth. It's related to a reduction in the growth rate. We'll see whether your -- we have still going even higher than what we are forecasting for the time being.

是的。帕姆，為了澄清這裡的指導，我們的同比增長將與我們在總銷量增長方面經歷的增長相似，但與“23 和 ”相比，這一年的增長百分比並不大。22.所以這些都是類似的銷售成長。這與成長率的下降有關。我們將看看您的價格是否仍然高於我們目前的預測。

Okay. That makes sense. And a question on the patent settlement with BAT. Can you elaborate on the implications of that? I know you've been investing in manufacturing capabilities in the U.S. for IQOS. How does the settlement influence your ability to import into the U.S.? And does it change your manufacturing strategy?

好的。這就說得通了。還有一個關於與 BAT 的專利和解的問題。您能詳細說明一下這意味著什麼嗎？我知道你們一直在美國投資 IQOS 的製造能力。和解協議如何影響您向美國進口商品的能力？它會改變您的製造策略嗎？

Well, it actually allows us now to also connect IQOS in the U.S. to the supply chain, which is on the international supply chain from day 1, which is operating with all the benefits of economies of scale, et cetera. So obviously, as the mitigating type of a strategy we have been implementing in parallel the alternative manufacturing in the U.S., but that obviously is the first factory, first volumes. We would obviously result in the increased or elevated cost both on the devices and the HeatSticks and it will take a while until U.S., on a stand-alone basis, would close at the same level of the benefits of the cost, if you like, as we had on international. So for us, it clears the path for IQOS.

嗯，它實際上允許我們現在也將美國的 IQOS 連接到供應鏈，從第一天起就位於國際供應鏈上，該供應鏈的運營具有規模經濟等的所有優勢。顯然，作為一種緩解策略，我們一直在與美國的替代製造並行實施，但這顯然是第一家工廠，第一批產量。顯然，我們會導致設備和加熱棒的成本增加或升高，並且如果您願意的話，美國需要一段時間才能單獨達到與成本效益相同的水平，正如我們在國際上所做的那樣。所以對我們來說，它為 IQOS 掃清了道路。

We don't [make any Lomas] so we're bringing a lot of -- or removing that, I should say, uncertainty from today and going forward. And IQOS because it is U.S., it's just another market which we added to the geographical family of IQOS presence from a day 1 or (inaudible) as I said, to the pipeline of the products and its economic cost benefits as an international market.

我們不[製造任何洛馬斯]，所以我們帶來了很多——或者我應該說，消除了今天和未來的不確定性。 IQOS 因為它是美國，所以它只是我們從第一天起就添加到IQOS 地理家族中的另一個市場，或者（聽不清楚）正如我所說，添加到產品管道及其作為國際市場的經濟成本效益。

So for us, actually, is clarity and acceleration which we gain through this agreement. And obviously, as we all know, the patent litigation territory has a high degree of uncertainty. And we're running a very sizable business and we plan to have even more sizable business with the addition now of U.S. and that clarity and the visibility going forward is very important which I believe is also important for investors too.

因此，對我們來說，實際上，我們透過這項協議獲得了清晰度和加速。顯然，眾所周知，專利訴訟領域具有高度的不確定性。我們正在經營一個非常規模的業務，我們計劃在美國增加業務規模，並且未來的清晰度和可見性非常重要，我相信這對投資者也很重要。

We'll go next to Faham Baig with UBS.

接下來我們將與 UBS 一起去 Faham Baig。

I have a couple as well, please. Firstly, you're guiding for another impressive year of mid-teens heated tobacco in-market sales growth. You've highlighted Europe will be within that range. Historically, Europe has done slightly better. What markets make up the sort of difference to help you to still get to the mid-teens growth? If you could allude to the larger markets. And within that, are you assuming any contribution from Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, you mentioned? And what should we expect for the U.S. as well, please?

我也有一對，拜託。首先，您將帶領我們迎來另一個令人印象深刻的中青少年加熱菸草市場銷售成長的一年。您強調歐洲將在這個範圍內。從歷史上看，歐洲的表現稍好一些。哪些市場可以彌補這種差異，幫助您維持十幾歲左右的成長？如果你能提到更大的市場。您提到的其中，您是否假設台灣、沙烏地阿拉伯有任何貢獻？我們對美國也該期待什麼？

So maybe I start with the U.S. I mean the U.S., we will do the test market on IQOS 3 point -- what we called IQOS 3.0 blade product, which is literally for us the high cost and we keep looking forward to get more visibility from FDA with regards to the PMTA MRTPA for IQOS which would allow us to accelerate the broader, more national type of a commercialization.

所以也許我會從美國開始，我的意思是美國，我們將在IQOS 3 點上進行測試市場——我們稱之為IQOS 3.0 刀片產品，這對我們來說實際上是高成本，我們一直期待著從美國獲得更多的知名度FDA 關於 IQOS 的 PMTA MRTPA，這將使我們能夠加速更廣泛、更全國性的商業化。

So what we have assumed in 2024 in terms of the volume contribution of IQOS from U.S., it's very minimal. We are not treating this as testing the engine, commercial, the consumer phasing type of a solution rather than a [lower] the current version of the product at the full scope.

因此，我們假設 2024 年美國 IQOS 的銷售貢獻非常小。我們不會將此視為測試解決方案的引擎、商業、消費者階段類型，而不是在整個範圍內[降低]產品的當前版本。

We have assumed -- we made some assumptions with regards of opening the markets in which IQOS today is not allowed. (inaudible) not on the list is obviously Taiwan. Okay, that's each other assumptions and we might be right or wrong, but these are the assumptions which we made. It obviously hinges on the speed of some regulatory decisions and the laws being passed and et cetera.

我們已經假設——我們對開放目前不允許使用 IQOS 的市場做出了一些假設。 （聽不清楚）顯然台灣不在名單上。好吧，這是彼此的假設，我們可能是對的，也可能是錯的，但這些是我們所做的假設。這顯然取決於一些監管決策和法律通過等的速度。

And with regards to Europe, look, I mean although I believe and the history have shown with the flavor type of regulations in the different categories, in the different places, that over a period of time, they don't have much of an impact to the [dollar]. But we're going in a period that some markets or markets will be implementing these regulations. I think they need to be cautious that there might be some distortions.

至於歐洲，我的意思是，儘管我相信歷史已經表明，不同類別、不同地方的監管風格不同，但在一段時間內，它們不會產生太大影響到[美元]。但我們正處於一些市場或市場將實施這些法規的時期。我認為他們需要謹慎，可能會出現一些扭曲。

I mean that they put in a guidelines and these will be transparent and still give you (inaudible) with headwind, which we take in, in the volume outlook for IQOS, but we'll have to see where this materializes. Not materialize, I think it's a matter of [who then]. So we should talk about this.

我的意思是，他們制定了指導方針，這些指導方針將是透明的，但仍然會給你帶來（聽不清楚）逆風，我們在IQOS 的銷售前景中考慮到了這一點，但我們必須看看這會在哪裡實現。不會實現，我認為這是[那麼]的問題。所以我們應該談談這個。

Other than that, the underlying IQOS growth, if I look at the value of a share evolution, essentially, our European market is pretty strong despite the fact that very much in Central Europe, there is maybe more of the pricing competition from other heat-not-burn participants. But we also have a very strong price competition, extremely strong price competition, I should say, both on the devices and the consumables, consumables in Japan. And over the period of time, IQOS navigates for this highly sometimes aggressive competitive pricing environment very well. So that's essentially where we are.

除此之外，IQOS 的潛在成長，如果我看看股票演變的價值，本質上，我們的歐洲市場相當強勁，儘管事實上在中歐的大部分地區，來自其他熱源的定價競爭可能更多——不燃燒的參與者。但我們也有非常激烈的價格競爭，我應該說，在日本的設備和消耗品上，都存在著非常激烈的價格競爭。在一段時間內，IQOS 很好地適應了這種有時非常激烈的競爭性定價環境。這基本上就是我們現在的處境。

Germany grows very nicely. Italy continues with a very strong growth momentum. Again, the major driver is Spain. We make the -- we start making a significant progress. So that's it for me.

德國的發展非常好。義大利繼續保持非常強勁的成長勢頭。同樣，主要推動力是西班牙。我們開始取得重大進展。我就是這樣。

And then just one other question, please. So you're expecting a smoke-free acceleration in 2024, but that's not translating into group net revenue growth acceleration in 2024. Are you expecting a softer performance in combustibles in '24? Is that the discrepancy?

請再問一個問題。因此，您預計 2024 年無菸業務將加速成長，但這並不會轉化為 2024 年集團淨收入成長的加速。您是否預期 24 年可燃物的業績會疲軟？這就是差距嗎？

Yes. I mean look, this is the blended -- at this moment in time, at the beginning of the year, the blended outlook for the group revenue is combustibles, oral and, obviously, heat-not-burn. There's few other in smaller things. But we have managed last year to deliver a very strong pricing variance. I think again, it's fair to assume that the driver of a pricing variance may not be repeatable this year. But there is obviously a pricing potential, which we baked in, in the -- or included in the guidance.

是的。我的意思是，看，這是混合的——在今年年初的這個時刻，集團收入的混合前景是可燃物、口服的，顯然是加熱不燃燒的。在較小的事情上幾乎沒有其他的。但去年我們設法提供了非常大的定價差異。我再次認為，可以公平地假設今年定價差異的驅動因素可能不會重複。但顯然存在定價潛力，我們將其納入或包含在指南中。

Look, for some of these things, we need a little bit more visibility to start increasing our confidence. I still believe that if I compare what Philip Morris is delivering now, number of the years when we leave the revenue top line above 7%. And remember very well the times when we started transformations when they were the 3% to 5%, now I think a quality what counts for us, and this is what we pay a lot of attention, that we not only want to lead in a sustainable matter the revenue growth, but obviously important is the quality of that revenue growth. So having a 3-year total group volumes to start with above was no decline, not even flat, but growing, when you start overlaying this by pricing and managing to -- focusing to avoid the risk of some down-trading, et cetera, I think that the 7% is there, well, above 7% revenue growth is the pretty -- from a qualitative perspective, not just from the nominal growth perspective, I would think that is all that (inaudible).

看，對於其中一些事情，我們需要更多的可見性來開始增強我們的信心。我仍然相信，如果我比較一下菲利普莫里斯公司現在的表現，我們將收入保持在 7% 以上的年份數。還記得很清楚，當我們開始轉型時，他們是 3% 到 5%，現在我認為對我們來說重要的品質，這是我們非常關注的，我們不僅想引領永續發展對收入成長很重要，但顯然重要的是收入成長的品質。因此，從上面開始的 3 年總銷量並沒有下降，甚至不是持平，而是增長，當你開始通過定價和設法覆蓋這一點時 - 專注於避免一些向下交易的風險，等等，我認為7 % 就在那裡，嗯，收入成長超過7% 就很漂亮了——從定性的角度來看，而不僅僅是從名義成長的角度來看，我認為這就是全部（聽不清楚）。

Just to add to what Jacek has just been saying. I mean indeed, it's taking into account that 2023 was exceptional when it comes to price increase with close to 9% on the combustible portfolio and we don't intend to repeat that. We are guiding to a mid-single-digit price increase for 2024. So of course, that will have an impact and make a difference on the growth of our revenue on the combustible business.

只是將雅采克剛才所說的話來補充。我的意思是，事實上，考慮到 2023 年是可燃投資組合價格上漲近 9% 的特殊時期，我們不打算重複這一情況。我們預計 2024 年價格將實現中等個位數的上漲。因此，這當然會對我們的可燃業務收入成長產生影響並產生影響。

We'll go next to Callum Elliott with Bernstein.

接下來我們將和伯恩斯坦一起去卡勒姆·艾利奧特。

I just wanted to start with disposable vaping products. We've obviously seen these products have huge success in the U.S. in 2023 and the U.K. also driving us a steeper volume decline for commutable cigarettes in those markets. Obviously, your combustible cigarette business in those 2 markets is not huge, if nonexistent, obviously, in the U.S. So not a huge impact on your business so far. But my question is why do you think we haven't seen equivalent success for these products in the markets that are big markets for your business and the EU in particular? And do you think this could be a threat to your business in 2024?

我只想從一次性電子煙產品開始。顯然，我們已經看到這些產品在 2023 年在美國取得了巨大成功，而英國也導致這些市場上可交換捲菸的銷售量急劇下降。顯然，您在這兩個市場的可燃捲菸業務在美國即使不存在，也不是很大，所以到目前為止對您的業務影響不大。但我的問題是，為什麼您認為這些產品在您企業的大市場（尤其是歐盟）中沒有同等的成功？您認為這會對您 2024 年的業務構成威脅嗎？

You mean the threat to our business coming from the vape products? Look, there a number of factors, right? So one is that I think that the category of the vape product is being disposable; it's not disposable. It's very much focused in terms of the offering and innovation, frankly speaking, into the flavors, right? Then we very often forget that the core of the smokers' market-by-market with literally few exceptions are very much and if I would characterize is a traditional tobacco type of experience flavor, et cetera. So this creates sort of a more dual consumption or occasional consumption. But I think for some smokers and we know it from our experience of IQOS, it actually triggers curiosity to try, but at the same time, triggers the bottleneck in terms of a full-time type of a switching adoption. So that's one of the factors, okay? And then obviously, other factors at play.

您的意思是電子煙產品對我們業務的威脅？看，有很多因素，對嗎？所以一是我認為電子煙產品的品類是一次性的；它不是一次性的。坦白說，它非常注重產品和創新，口味，對吧？然後我們經常忘記，吸煙者逐個市場的核心（幾乎沒有例外）非常多，如果我將其描述為傳統煙草類型的體驗風味，等等。因此，這創造了一種更雙重的消費或偶爾的消費。但我認為，對於一些吸煙者來說，我們從 IQOS 的經驗中知道，它實際上引發了嘗試的好奇心，但同時也引發了全職類型轉換採用的瓶頸。所以這是因素之一，好嗎？顯然，還有其他因素在起作用。

I guess I understand that, yes. But why hasn't that -- it seems like in the U.S. and the U.K., that hasn't been an impediment to these products' success over the past 12, 18 months.

我想我明白了，是的。但為什麼沒有——在美國和英國，這似乎並沒有成為這些產品在過去 12、18 個月取得成功的障礙。

Results, so the focus, right? Because U.K. was on the forefront as was U.S., if I remember historically, of the forefront of this category partially, I guess, also attracted by the underlying margins in the CC category. So obviously, people are going with alternatives to the places which create some sort of that underlying margin opportunity with the relative freedoms also to talk about these products.

結果，那麼重點吧？因為英國和美國一樣處於前列，如果我記得歷史的話，我猜，部分是因為 CC 類別的潛在利潤所吸引。顯然，人們正在尋找其他地方，以創造某種潛在的利潤機會，並相對自由地談論這些產品。

As you know, Europe very much, but also in international, some countries, these products are not very -- let me put it that way, warmly welcomed. So let's leave aside the [harming action] principles, but some other opinions and views at play. Look, we know that we enter a category, but we're trying to be very disciplined or focused I should say and it's very easy to enter into this category without too much of the path to sustainable profitability. And we don't want to focus the company from some other opportunities which we're pursuing, which, in our view, are more sustainable and offer the good start for the margins and the underlying profitability. But when we enter with this product, Italy, Czech, a few other markets, I mean our products despite the fact that we're relatively late into the -- from a category history perspective, and then we have gained double-digit shares in this market in the speed of (inaudible) less than 12 months or so. So it also tells you there is a lot of lack of loyalties in place. There's a lot of yes, I know that we see the volumes, but there's a lot of trial. I should not ban category and the pouches judge by performance in the U.S. And then by definition, the consumer is more loyal, more focused, more discipline in how they navigate it also.

如你所知，歐洲非常多，而且在國際上，一些國家，這些產品不是很——讓我這樣說，受到熱烈歡迎。因此，讓我們先把[傷害行為]原則放在一邊，而考慮一些其他的意見和觀點。看，我們知道我們進入了一個類別，但我應該說，我們正在努力變得非常自律或專注，並且進入這個類別非常容易，而無需太多的可持續盈利途徑。我們不想讓公司專注於我們正在追求的其他機會，我們認為這些機會更具可持續性，並為利潤率和潛在盈利能力提供了良好的開端。但是，當我們帶著這個產品進入義大利、捷克和其他一些市場時，我指的是我們的產品，儘管我們進入的時間相對較晚——從類別歷史的角度來看，然後我們在這個市場的發展速度（聽不清楚）不到12個月左右。所以它也告訴你，存在著許多缺乏忠誠度的情況。有很多是的，我知道我們看到了很多卷，但也有很多試驗。我不應該根據美國的表現來禁止品類和包裝袋。然後根據定義，消費者在如何駕馭它時更加忠誠，更加專注，更加自律。

Okay. And I have a follow-up that is related but maybe a slightly more philosophical question. In a number of markets and especially the U.S. related to some of these disposable vaping products, we've been seeing this formation of -- I would describe it as like a dual-tiered market that's been forming with big legacy players such as yourselves who are forced to play by the rules and hold themselves to a certain set of standards, marketing only to existing nicotine users and all of us will have seen your video on ZYN last week, I would imagine. But at the same time, we also have a secondary set of smaller new businesses who seem to be doing basically whatever they want and often illegally, but having great success within the marketplace and attracting lots of consumers.

好的。我有一個相關的後續問題，但可能是稍微更哲學的問題。在許多市場，尤其是與一些一次性電子煙產品相關的美國，我們已經看到了這種形成——我將其描述為一個雙層市場，由像你們這樣的大型傳統參與者形成被迫遵守規則並要求自己遵守一定的標準，只向現有的尼古丁使用者進行行銷，我想我們所有人上週都會在ZYN 上看到你的影片。但同時，我們也有一些規模較小的新企業，它們似乎基本上為所欲為，而且常常是非法的，但在市場上取得了巨大成功並吸引了大量消費者。

And so I guess my question is, do you think that this dual-tiered structure that seems to be forming in a number of markets, structurally impairs the attractiveness of your business and your brands when it seems like you're just being forced to play on a playing field which is not level?

所以我想我的問題是，您是否認為這種在許多市場中形成的雙層結構會在結構上損害您的業務和品牌的吸引力，而您似乎只是被迫參與其中在一個不平坦的比賽場地上？

Well, look, obviously, companies like ours is not even thinking about doing something which would be against or crossing the line of regulations or even, I would say, societal expectations. So obviously, I mean, our ability to come to you, these are -- it isn't what you're asking, grossly different than some other operators or participants in the market, especially people who don't have a view of 10 years or 15 years outlook, but it's essentially hit and run almost type of operation. And I think we know what has happened or what is happening in the U.S. There is, I understand, some discipline in the market is now underway. But frankly speaking, it's a long overdue because there is a lot of -- pardon my language, but a mess created in the market by the fact that regulators, law enforcements and other design for this designated for these agencies were a bit slow. And I think it's, frankly speaking, a replica, which we have for many years, and still in some places, kind of on a cigarette market, and it forms of an illicit type of a participation in the market. It's not only marketing practices, but also products, product standards, all of these things creates completely around distortions in the market at the expense of the legitimate category manufacturers and also diverts the conversation from how further we can progress and have reductions and divert them into the things which relatively easily should be fixed.

好吧，顯然，像我們這樣的公司甚至沒有考慮做一些違反或跨越法規甚至社會期望的事情。很明顯，我的意思是，我們有能力來找您，這些不是您所要求的，與市場上的其他一些運營商或參與者有很大不同，尤其是那些沒有 10 觀點的人幾年或15年的展望，但它本質上幾乎是肇事逃逸類型的操作。我認為我們知道美國發生了什麼或正在發生什麼。據我所知，市場正在採取一些紀律。但坦白說，這是一個姍姍來遲的事情，因為有很多——請原諒我的語言，但由於監管機構、執法部門和為這些機構指定的其他設計有點緩慢，這一事實在市場上造成了混亂。坦白說，我認為這是一個複製品，我們已經有很多年了，而且在某些地方仍然存在，有點像捲菸市場，它形成了一種非法參與市場的方式。這不僅是行銷實踐，而且是產品、產品標準，所有這些都完全圍繞著市場扭曲，以犧牲合法類別製造商的利益為代價，同時也轉移了人們對我們如何進一步進步、減少成本並將其轉移到其他方面的討論。相對容易修復的事情。

Our final question will come from Matt Smith with Stifel.

我們的最後一個問題將由馬特史密斯和史蒂菲爾提出。

Wanted to ask a follow-up question about investment levels embedded in the 2024 outlook. If we consider the expectation for gross and operating profit margin expansion on an organic basis, can you talk about the areas where you're seeing a step up meaningfully in incremental investment?

想詢問有關 2024 年展望中的投資水準的後續問題。如果我們在有機的基礎上考慮毛利率和營業利潤率擴張的預期，您能談談您認為增量投資顯著增加的領域嗎？

Last year, you called out $150 million of explicit investments, including $75 million or so in the U.S. It would seem like the growth in ZYN would allow you to step that investment level up while still being able to achieve your double-digit profit expectations in the market.

去年，您進行了 1.5 億美元的顯性投資，其中在美國投資了 7500 萬美元左右。看起來 ZYN 的增長將使您能夠提高投資水平，同時仍然能夠在 2019 年實現兩位數的利潤預期。市場。

Yes. So a lot depends, obviously, we thought a great (inaudible) adjusted the live above on the revenue growth. So obviously, we are assuming some improvement in the margins. But on the other hand, I think we will have enough of the resources to support that revenue growth. So it is -- if we were to completely stop investing, obviously, the expansions on a wide growth would be much more significant, margin expansions will be much more significant, but we are -- it is not what we see in our strategy.

是的。因此，顯然，很大程度上取決於我們認為上面的直播對收入成長進行了很大的（聽不清楚）調整。顯然，我們假設利潤率會有所改善。但另一方面，我認為我們將有足夠的資源來支持收入成長。所以，如果我們完全停止投資，顯然，廣泛成長的擴張將更加顯著，利潤率擴張將更加顯著，但我們——這不是我們在策略中看到的。

So I think once we operate it at scale and we build, like the consumer has there, so the scale in the U.S., (inaudible) is very substantial over there, at least by the market standard. And the revenue, which we generate from a small (inaudible), also combustibles on international with that sort of a revenue growth rate, I think we have a room to provide for the investments to support today's and tomorrow's growth while also allowing for driving the margin expansion.

因此，我認為，一旦我們大規模運作並進行建設，就像那裡的消費者一樣，那麼美國的規模（聽不清楚）就非常可觀，至少按照市場標準是如此。我們從小額（聽不清楚）產生的收入也可以在國際上以這種收入增長率燃燒，我認為我們有空間提供投資來支持今天和明天的成長，同時也可以推動利潤擴張。

We also have provided here some inflationary pressure. And I think, especially on the combustible, I -- we assume that the '24 is sort of the last year of this extra ordinary life of inflation under pressure. And as of '25, in other words, we should start seeing easing when the COGS pressures, and this is about delivering some other materials, and I think every incremental IQOS and every incremental ZYN is obviously requires proportionally less of the investment with the first IQOS and the first ZYN.

我們也在這裡提供了一些通膨壓力。我認為，特別是在可燃物方面，我們假設 24 年是通膨壓力下超常生活的最後一年。換句話說，從25 年開始，當COGS 壓力增加時，我們應該開始看到放鬆，這涉及到交付一些其他材料，我認為每個增量IQOS 和每個增量ZYN 顯然需要按比例減少第一個投資IQOS 和第一款 ZYN。

So I mean the scale offer is going forward, there's opportunity for supporting the margin.

所以我的意思是規模報價正在推進，有機會支撐利潤。

Before closing...

關閉前...

That concludes today's question...

今天的問題到此結束...

Sorry. Before closing our call, I'd like to remind you that we will be presenting at the CAGNY conference on February 21, and we hope you'll be able to join either in person virtually.

對不起。在結束我們的通話之前，我想提醒您，我們將於 2 月 21 日在 CAGNY 會議上發表演講，我們希望您能夠親自參加。

Thank you again for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact the Investor Relations team, and hope you have a great day.

再次感謝您今天加入我們。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係團隊，祝您有個愉快的一天。

Thank you, all. Speak to you soon.

謝謝你們。盡快回覆你。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開連線。