菲利普莫里斯國際 (PM) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Philip Morris International First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Philip Morris International management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Media representatives on the call will also be invited to ask questions at the conclusion of the questions from the investment community.

美好的一天，歡迎來到菲利普莫里斯國際公司 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。今天的電話會議計劃持續約 1 小時，包括菲利普莫里斯國際管理層的講話和問答環節。 （操作員說明）電話中的媒體代表也將被邀請在投資界問題結束時提問。

I will now turn the call over to Mr. James Bushnell, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communications. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係和金融傳播副總裁 James Bushnell 先生。請繼續，先生。

Welcome. Thank you for joining us. Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2023 first quarter results. You may access the release on pmi.com. A glossary of terms, including the definition for smoke-free products as well as adjustments, other calculations and reconciliations to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures for non-GAAP financial measures cited in this presentation and additional net revenue data are available in the exhibit to the Form 8-K published this morning and on our Investor Relations website.

歡迎。感謝您加入我們。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含有關我們 2023 年第一季度業績的詳細信息。您可以訪問 pmi.com 上的版本。術語表，包括無菸產品的定義以及調整、其他計算和對本演示文稿中引用的非 GAAP 財務措施的最直接可比美國 GAAP 措施的調節，以及額外的淨收入數據可在圖表中找到到今天上午和我們的投資者關係網站上發布的 8-K 表格。

Growth rates presented on an organic basis reflect currency-neutral adjusted results, excluding acquisitions and disposals. As such, figures and comparisons presented on an organic basis exclude Swedish Match up until November 11, 2023. Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results. I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements.

在有機基礎上呈現的增長率反映了貨幣中性調整後的結果，不包括收購和處置。因此，截至 2023 年 11 月 11 日，在有機基礎上提供的數據和比較不包括 Swedish Match。今天的評論包含前瞻性陳述和對未來結果的預測。請注意今天的演示文稿和新聞稿中披露的前瞻性和警示性陳述，以審查可能導致實際結果與預測或前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的各種因素。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Emmanuel Babeau, Chief Financial Officer. Over to you, Emmanuel.

現在我很高興介紹首席財務官 Emmanuel Babeau。交給你了，伊曼紐爾。

Thank you, James, and welcome, everyone. I am pleased to report that Q1 performance exceeded our expectations with strong underlying momentum from IQOS, ZYN and our combustible business. As mentioned at our full year earnings in February, we expected this quarter to be the weakest of the year due to a confluence of transitory factors impacting our top and bottom line.

謝謝你，詹姆斯，歡迎大家。我很高興地報告，第一季度的表現超出了我們的預期，IQOS、ZYN 和我們的可燃業務帶來了強勁的潛在動力。正如我們在 2 月份的全年收益中提到的那樣，由於影響我們的頂線和底線的暫時性因素的共同作用，我們預計本季度將是今年最疲軟的季度。

In this context, our business delivered robust results, and we look forward with confidence to the remainder of the year. Smoke-free net revenues made up almost 35% of total PMI, despite the impact of adverse timing factors on HTU shipments with an increasing number of markets crossing the 50% threshold. IQOS continued to deliver strong share and user growth across its geographies, both with the blade version and ILUMA.

在此背景下，我們的業務取得了強勁的業績，我們對今年餘下的時間充滿信心。無菸淨收入佔總 PMI 的近 35%，儘管不利的時間因素對 HTU 出貨量產生了影響，越來越多的市場超過了 50% 的門檻。 IQOS 的刀片版和 ILUMA 繼續在其地區實現強勁的份額和用戶增長。

We have launched ILUMA as excellent traction with both existing IQOS user and legal age smoker is boosting growth, demonstrating the dynamism and importance of our ongoing innovation. ILUMA's progress is especially notable in the first launch market of Japan, where share growth has accelerated in recent quarters. In combustibles, accelerated pricing across a range of markets helped to deliver robust organic net revenue growth. Swedish Match delivered impressive results, with a standout performance from ZYN's plus 47% U.S. shipment's volume growth compared to the first quarter of 2022.

我們推出 ILUMA 是因為對現有 IQOS 用戶和法定年齡吸煙者的出色牽引力正在促進增長，展示了我們持續創新的活力和重要性。 ILUMA 在日本首發市場的進展尤為顯著，該市場的份額在最近幾個季度加速增長。在可燃物方面，一系列市場的加速定價有助於實現強勁的有機淨收入增長。 Swedish Match 取得了令人矚目的成績，ZYN 的出色表現加上與 2022 年第一季度相比美國出貨量增長了 47%。

Following an encouraging start to the year, we are well set up to deliver strong performance in 2023, including excellent top and bottom line growth for the remainder of the year. Turning to the headline numbers. Our Q1 organic net revenues saw a robust growth of plus 3.2% against a very strong prior year quarter with organic growth of plus 9%. This reflects the continued strength of IQOS as a step-up in pricing, but was partially offset by expected HTU inventory movement, which I will come back to.

在今年開局令人鼓舞之後，我們已準備好在 2023 年實現強勁業績，包括在今年剩餘時間實現出色的收入和利潤增長。轉向標題數字。我們第一季度的有機淨收入強勁增長 3.2%，而去年同期非常強勁，有機增長為 9%。這反映了 IQOS 作為定價升級的持續優勢，但被預期的 HTU 庫存變動部分抵消了，我將回過頭來。

This organic figure does not include the excellent plus 14% ex currency top line growth of Swedish Match led by ZYN. Our total reported currency-neutral net revenue grew by plus 9.6%, with combined pro forma adjusted net revenue increasing by around plus 4%, also excluding currency. Our total organic net revenue per unit grew by plus 4.4%, with strong combustible pricing of plus 7.4%, partially offset by HTU dynamic in Japan and Germany, which I will come back to momentarily.

這個有機數字不包括由 ZYN 領導的 Swedish Match 出色的加上 14% 的貨幣除外收入增長。我們報告的貨幣中性淨收入總額增長了 9.6%，合併後的備考調整後淨收入增長了約 4%，也不包括貨幣。我們的每單位總有機淨收入增長了 4.4%，可燃物定價強勁增長了 7.4%，部分被日本和德國的 HTU 動態所抵消，我稍後會回過頭來。

We delivered Q1 adjusted diluted earning per share of $1.38, well above our previous expectation. This reflect a strong underlying delivery from our existing operations, excellent Swedish Match performance and favorable phasing on interest costs. Compared to a record high prior year quarter and with a number of one-off or accentuated margin headwind from inflation, supply chain efficiency and timing factors as flagged previously, our adjusted diluted EPS contracted by minus 4.4%.

我們交付的第一季度調整後攤薄每股收益為 1.38 美元，遠高於我們之前的預期。這反映了我們現有業務的強大基礎交付、出色的瑞典火柴性能和有利的利息成本分階段。與去年同期的創紀錄高位相比，以及之前提到的通貨膨脹、供應鏈效率和時間因素帶來的一些一次性或加劇的利潤逆風，我們調整後的攤薄每股收益收縮了負 4.4%。

Let me now walk through the mechanics of our Q1 net revenues. We delivered overall adjusted net revenue growth of plus 4.6% on an organic shipment volume decline of minus 1.1%. What was included in this number, Swedish Match smoke-free volume grew by an excellent plus 10%, adding impressive accretion to our overall growth profile. Combustible and HTU pricing, excluding Germany and Japan HTUs, contributed plus 5.3 points of growth, including positive HTU pricing in a number of markets.

現在讓我介紹一下我們第一季度淨收入的機制。在有機出貨量下降-1.1% 的情況下，我們實現了整體調整後淨收入增長 4.6%。包括在這個數字中的是，Swedish Match 的無菸銷量增長了 10%，這為我們的整體增長狀況增添了令人印象深刻的增長。可燃物和 HTU 定價（不包括德國和日本 HTU）貢獻了 5.3 個百分點的增長，其中包括許多市場的正 HTU 定價。

This was partly offset by a negative 1.3 point HTU impact from Germany and Japan. The larger of the 2 was Germany, reflecting a full quarter of the 2022 excise tax increase for which we await a court ruling later this year. In Japan, the October 2022 excise tax increase and transition to ILUMA were also a drag on our top line, and we expect some of this impact to phase out in the second half. While the increasing mix of HTUs in our business at higher net revenue per unit continues to positively impact our performance, lower shipments in Europe this quarter due to wholesaler and distributor inventory movements limited the benefit. This was also the main driver for the difference between our smoke-free organic net revenue growth and HTU shipment volume growth.

這部分被來自德國和日本的 1.3 點 HTU 負面影響所抵消。這兩個國家中較大的一個是德國，反映了 2022 年消費稅增加的四分之一，我們正在等待今年晚些時候的法院裁決。在日本，2022 年 10 月的消費稅上調和向 ILUMA 的過渡也拖累了我們的收入，我們預計部分影響將在下半年逐步消除。雖然我們業務中 HTU 的組合越來越多，單位淨收入更高，這繼續對我們的業績產生積極影響，但由於批發商和分銷商庫存變動，本季度歐洲出貨量下降限制了收益。這也是我們無菸有機淨收入增長與 HTU 出貨量增長之間差異的主要驅動因素。

We expect this positive mix shift to accelerate as both smoke-free organic net revenue growth and HTU shipment growth align more closely with offtake trends for the year as they also did in 2022. The positive mix impact of HTUs, overall volume growth and pricing are powerful drivers of our transformation and growth. As expected, the first quarter was impacted by peak margin headwinds at both the gross margin and adjusted operating income level.

我們預計這種積極的組合轉變將加速，因為無菸有機淨收入增長和 HTU 出貨量增長與 2022 年一樣與今年的承購趨勢更加一致。HTU、整體銷量增長和定價的積極組合影響是我們轉型和增長的強大動力。正如預期的那樣，第一季度受到毛利率和調整後營業收入水平的峰值利潤逆風的影響。

Our gross margin contracted by 0.6 percentage points due to the net impact of COGS inflation, pricing, volume, mix and productivity savings. We expect the positive elements of pricing, productivity and favorable HTU category mix to increasingly compensate and ultimately outweigh inflation as we progress through the year. Supply chain disruption and the accelerated transition of consumers and our business to ILUMA accounted for a further 0.6 percentage point impact.

由於 COGS 通脹、定價、數量、組合和生產力節省的淨影響，我們的毛利率收縮了 0.6 個百分點。我們預計，隨著今年的進展，定價、生產力和有利的 HTU 類別組合等積極因素將越來越多地補償並最終超過通貨膨脹。供應鏈中斷以及消費者和我們的業務向 ILUMA 的加速過渡進一步產生了 0.6 個百分點的影響。

We anticipate these items to abate as we progress with ILUMA launches and gain efficiencies in our supply chain, including a return to sea freight. In addition, specific cost phasing and the geographic mix of inventory movement, notably for HTUs in Europe, impacted our gross margin by 1.8 percentage points in the quarter. Despite these exceptional Q1 dynamics, we continue to forecast the full year 2023 margin impact of our heat-not-burn business to be favorable as inventory movement and ILUMA-related factors dissipate.

我們預計隨著 ILUMA 發布的進展和供應鏈效率的提高，包括回歸海運，這些項目將會減少。此外，特定的成本分階段和庫存流動的地理組合，尤其是歐洲的 HTU，影響了我們本季度的毛利率 1.8 個百分點。儘管第一季度出現了這些異常的動態，但我們繼續預測，隨著庫存變動和 ILUMA 相關因素的消散，我們的不燃燒加熱業務對 2023 年全年利潤率的影響將是有利的。

Therefore, and as explained previously, we expect a progressive improvement in our gross profit and OI margin notably weighted towards H2 as headwinds subside and the underlying driver of our transformation accelerate. At around 26% of adjusted net revenues, our Q1 SG&A costs are at a similar ratio to the full year 2022. However, as expected, there was a notable increase compared to Q1 2022, given lower commercial spend at the beginning of last year, the inflationary environment, cost phasing and front-loaded commercial investments.

因此，正如之前所解釋的那樣，我們預計隨著逆風消退和我們轉型的潛在驅動力加速，我們的毛利潤和 OI 利潤率將逐步改善，特別是向 H2 傾斜。我們第一季度的 SG&A 成本佔調整後淨收入的 26% 左右，與 2022 年全年的比率相似。但是，正如預期的那樣，由於去年年初商業支出較低，與 2022 年第一季度相比有顯著增長，通貨膨脹環境、成本分階段和前期商業投資。

Our successful cost efficiency programs continue to deliver, enabling ongoing investment and helping to mitigate inflation with $150 million of gross savings realized in Q1, of which almost $50 million were from SG&A. Importantly, we expect a significant slowdown in SG&A growth to a level below the rate of net revenue growth for the remainder of the year, which will support OI margin improvements.

我們成功的成本效率計劃繼續實施，支持持續投資並幫助緩解通貨膨脹，第一季度實現了 1.5 億美元的總節省，其中近 5000 萬美元來自 SG&A。重要的是，我們預計 SG&A 增長將在今年剩餘時間內顯著放緩至低於淨收入增長率的水平，這將支持 OI 利潤率的改善。

This brings me to the outlook for 2023. Our robust Q1 performance supports visibility on strong full year growth. We continue to expect plus 7% to plus 8.5% organic top line progression with a targeted acceleration in HTU shipment volume growth versus 2022. As detailed in this morning's press release, our other operating assumptions remain unchanged. And we remind you that our organic metrics do not include the contribution from Swedish Match for the large majority of the year.

這讓我想到了 2023 年的前景。我們強勁的第一季度業績支持了全年強勁增長的可見性。我們繼續預計與 2022 年相比，HTU 出貨量增長目標加速，有機收入增長 7% 至 8.5%。如今天上午的新聞稿所述，我們的其他運營假設保持不變。我們提醒您，我們的有機指標不包括瑞典火柴在一年中大部分時間的貢獻。

Our updated full year adjusted diluted EPS forecast of $6.10 to $6.22 includes an estimated unfavorable currency impact of $0.30. Positive estimated impact from the euro and a number of other currencies are outweighed mainly by the weakness of the Japanese yen as well as the significant depreciation of the Russian ruble and the Egyptian pound. This range continues to reflect plus 7% to plus 9% currency-neutral growth and does not include any contribution from a potential favorable excise tax ruling in Germany, which we would expect to add around 3 points to our adjusted diluted EPS related to 2023 tax payment.

我們更新後的全年調整後攤薄每股收益預測為 6.10 美元至 6.22 美元，其中包括 0.30 美元的估計不利貨幣影響。歐元和其他一些貨幣的積極估計影響主要被日元疲軟以及俄羅斯盧布和埃及鎊大幅貶值所抵消。這一範圍繼續反映 7% 至 9% 的貨幣中性增長，並且不包括德國潛在的有利消費稅裁決的任何貢獻，我們預計這將使我們與 2023 年稅收相關的調整後攤薄每股收益增加約 3 個百分點支付。

We continue to expect Swedish Match to be low single-digit accretive to our 2023 adjusted diluted EPS after financing and for an increase of around $200 million in our non-acquisition-related interest costs despite a relatively modest increment in Q1. As discussed at full year earnings in February, this year's bottom line results are expected to be notably H2 weighted. However, we expect our organic net revenue growth to already accelerate in the second quarter into the high single digit.

我們繼續預計 Swedish Match 將在融資後對我們 2023 年調整後的攤薄每股收益產生低個位數的增長，並且儘管第一季度的增長相對溫和，但我們的非收購相關利息成本將增加約 2 億美元。正如 2 月份的全年收益所討論的那樣，今年的底線結果預計將顯著下半年加權。然而，我們預計我們的有機淨收入增長將在第二季度加速至高個位數。

We forecast second quarter HTU shipment volume of between 30 billion and 32 billion, with adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $1.42 to $1.47, including an estimated unfavorable currency impact of $0.30. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we expect close to double-digit organic top line growth and a return to margin expansion. Looking now at our full year forecast through a different lens. After the temporary headwinds in Q1, we expect very strong performance for the remainder of the year.

我們預測第二季度 HTU 出貨量在 300 億至 320 億之間，調整後的攤薄每股收益在 1.42 美元至 1.47 美元之間，其中包括 0.30 美元的不利貨幣影響。展望今年下半年，我們預計有機收入將實現接近兩位數的增長，利潤率將恢復增長。現在從不同的角度來看我們的全年預測。在經歷了第一季度的暫時逆風之後，我們預計今年剩餘時間的表現將非常強勁。

Despite ongoing margin headwinds and investment, we expect organic top line growth of plus 8% to plus 10%, improving margin with expansion in H2 and currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth of plus 10% to plus 13%. This reflects the strong underlying driver of our transformation with IQOS and ZYN driving volume at a higher net revenue per unit, combined with stepped-up pricing on combustible.

儘管利潤率和投資持續存在阻力，但我們預計有機收入增長 8% 至 10%，利潤率隨著下半年的擴張而提高，貨幣中性調整後攤薄每股收益增長 10% 至 13%。這反映了我們轉型的強大潛在驅動力，IQOS 和 ZYN 以更高的單位淨收入推動銷量，加上可燃物定價的提高。

Turning back to our results. Our HTU adjusted in-market sales volume grew by an estimated plus 16%, demonstrating continued strong growth momentum. HTU shipment volume of 27.4 billion units were towards the higher end of our forecast range, with growth of plus 10.4%, which was well below actual offtake trends as anticipated, due to distributor and wholesaler inventory movement. As implied by our full year HTU shipment forecast, we expect the rate of shipment growth to accelerate for the rest of the year as shipments convert with consumer offtake and to grow at a faster pace in 2023 than in 2022.

回到我們的結果。我們的 HTU 調整後市場銷量估計增長了 16%，顯示出持續強勁的增長勢頭。由於分銷商和批發商庫存變動，HTU 出貨量 274 億件接近我們預測範圍的較高端，增長率為 10.4%，遠低於預期的實際承購趨勢。正如我們全年 HTU 出貨量預測所暗示的那樣，我們預計今年剩餘時間的出貨量增長速度將加快，因為出貨量隨著消費者的購買量而變化，並且 2023 年的增長速度將快於 2022 年。

Before detailing this inventory impact, it is important to note that in certain markets, such as Germany, IMS sales volumes are not measured at the point of distributor sales to the retail trade as the data is not available. In these cases, we instead use our shipment as the proxy. This means that shipment fluctuations can impact both IMS volume and reported market share and may not be representative of offtake dynamic.

在詳細說明這種庫存影響之前，需要注意的是，在德國等某些市場，由於數據不可用，IMS 銷量並未在分銷商銷售到零售貿易時進行衡量。在這些情況下，我們會使用我們的貨件作為代理。這意味著出貨量波動會影響 IMS 數量和報告的市場份額，並且可能不代表承購動態。

Given the volatility seen over this quarter and from now on, where there is a significant difference between estimated offtake performance and IMS data, we may choose to provide market share metrics based on adjusted IMS to better reflect offtake, where adjustments reflect the total estimated impact of distributor and wholesaler inventory movement. As you may note in the appendix to today's earnings release, this is the case for Germany this quarter where we also provide historical figures.

鑑於本季度和從現在開始出現的波動，估計的承購業績與 IMS 數據之間存在顯著差異，我們可能會選擇提供基於調整後的 IMS 的市場份額指標，以更好地反映承購，其中調整反映了總的估計影響分銷商和批發商庫存變動。您可能會在今天的收益發布的附錄中註意到，本季度德國就是這種情況，我們還提供了歷史數據。

Coming back now to Q1. HTU shipment volume in several European markets were below consumer offtake. This is explained by the reversal of some inventory buildup at the end of Q4 2022 to meet the needs of ILUMA launch, as mentioned at our full year results in February, and also to create some safety stock to mitigate the risk of production and distribution constraints due to energy shortages.

現在回到第一季度。幾個歐洲市場的 HTU 出貨量低於消費者的購買量。正如我們在 2 月份的全年業績中提到的那樣，這是由於 2022 年第四季度末一些庫存積累的逆轉，以滿足 ILUMA 發布的需求，以及創建一些安全庫存以減輕生產和分銷限制的風險由於能源短缺。

As anticipated, we were able to adjust the safety stock in Q1 as the risk receded. We also decreased the level of IQOS blade HTU inventory in several markets to reduce the risk of upside stock, given the rapid transition to ILUMA. Notably, impacted markets include Italy and Germany, where underlying market share and offtake trends remain strong.

正如預期的那樣，隨著風險消退，我們能夠調整第一季度的安全庫存。鑑於向 ILUMA 的快速過渡，我們還降低了幾個市場的 IQOS 刀片 HTU 庫存水平，以降低庫存上行的風險。值得注意的是，受影響的市場包括意大利和德國，其潛在市場份額和承購趨勢依然強勁。

Italian Q1 in-market sales volume grew by plus 21% compared to the prior year, with market share increasing from 15.4% in Q4 to 17.4% in Q1. In Germany, adjusted Q1 IMS volumes increased over 30% from the prior year, with adjusted market share up from 4.7% in Q4 to 5.3% in Q1. Now turning back to the overall picture, while total Q1 cigarette and HTU shipment volume declined by minus 1.1%, our total IMS volumes were essentially stable and grew excluding total estimated inventory movement.

意大利第一季度的市場銷量與去年同期相比增長了 21%，市場份額從第四季度的 15.4% 增加到第一季度的 17.4%。在德國，調整後的第一季度 IMS 銷量比上一年增長了 30% 以上，調整後的市場份額從第四季度的 4.7% 上升到第一季度的 5.3%。現在回到整體情況，雖然第一季度捲菸和 HTU 總出貨量下降了負 1.1%，但我們的 IMS 總出貨量基本穩定，並且在不計總估計庫存變動的情況下有所增長。

Our cigarette shipments declined by minus 3.1% with resilient trends in many markets. The decline includes a notable impact from a high prior year comparison in Japan and the introduction of an abrupt excise tax increase in Pakistan, resulting in an increase in illicit trade and an industry contraction of over 30%. Volumes also declined in the Philippines following industry pricing with consumer purchasing power facing ongoing pressure.

我們的捲煙出貨量下降了負 3.1%，在許多市場都呈現出彈性趨勢。下降的原因包括日本與上一年相比較高以及巴基斯坦突然提高消費稅的顯著影響，導致非法貿易增加和行業收縮超過 30%。在消費者購買力面臨持續壓力的行業定價之後，菲律賓的銷量也有所下降。

We continue to target stable to positive combined cigarette and HTU shipment volume for the year following growth in 2021 and 2022. This notably does not include the excellent growth prospects of oral nicotine for which shipment volume grew by plus 10% in Q1. Most importantly, the exciting growth combination of IQOS and ZYN presents an unrivaled platform for growth over the coming years.

在 2021 年和 2022 年增長後的一年，我們繼續將捲煙和 HTU 的總出貨量定為穩定或正增長。這顯然不包括第一季度出貨量增長 10% 的口服尼古丁的良好增長前景。最重要的是，IQOS 和 ZYN 令人興奮的增長組合為未來幾年的增長提供了無與倫比的平台。

Focusing now on combustible, our portfolio delivered robust Q1 organic net revenue growth of plus 3%. This reflects strong pricing of plus 7.4% with a step-up across many markets, including Germany, Indonesia and the Philippines. With over 80% of planned 2023 combustible pricing implemented or announced, we have good visibility on the full year delivery, although some of the positive Q1 variance reflect earlier pricing compared to 2022. We now forecast a full year variance of plus 6% to plus 7%.

現在專注於可燃物，我們的產品組合實現了強勁的第一季度有機淨收入增長 3% 以上。這反映了 7.4% 的強勁定價，並在包括德國、印度尼西亞和菲律賓在內的許多市場上有所上漲。超過 80% 的 2023 年計劃可燃物定價已實施或宣布，我們對全年交付情況有很好的了解，儘管第一季度的一些正差異反映了與 2022 年相比更早的定價。我們現在預測全年差異為正 6% 至正7%。

Our cigarette category share declined by 0.3 percentage points in Q1, which was essentially all attributable to geographic mix as the total industry decline in large volume markets, such as the Philippines and Pakistan. The impact of share movements within market was neutral with gains, including Egypt, Poland and Turkey, offset by decline in markets such as Ukraine, the Philippines and Iraq.

我們的捲菸類別份額在第一季度下降了 0.3 個百分點，這基本上都歸因於地域組合，因為菲律賓和巴基斯坦等大容量市場的整個行業下降。市場內股票變動的影響是中性的，包括埃及、波蘭和土耳其在內的股票上漲，但被烏克蘭、菲律賓和伊拉克等市場的下跌所抵消。

Importantly, we continue to target a stable category share in 2023 and over time despite the impact of IQOS cannibalization. Moving now to our smoke-free product. We estimate there were 25.8 million IQOS users as of March 31. This represents growth of close to 1 million adult users since December, with notable progress in Japan and Europe, in addition to a broad range of other geographies. IQOS ILUMA has been a positive catalyst for volume and share growth across a broad range of launch market, both supporting our strong position in the heat-not-burn category with a super user experience and fostering further category growth.

重要的是，儘管受到 IQOS 蠶食的影響，我們仍將在 2023 年及以後繼續保持穩定的品類份額目標。現在轉向我們的無菸產品。我們估計截至 3 月 31 日有 2580 萬 IQOS 用戶。這意味著自去年 12 月以來成人用戶增加了近 100 萬，除了其他廣泛的地區外，日本和歐洲也取得了顯著進步。 IQOS ILUMA 一直是廣泛發布市場銷量和份額增長的積極催化劑，既支持了我們在加熱不燃燒類別中的強勢地位，又提供了超級用戶體驗，並促進了類別的進一步增長。

For existing IQOS users, ILUMA drives an accelerated upgrade cycle. This enhances retention and full conversion for the future with a temporary margin impact from concentrated device sales. Indeed, we are now approaching an estimated 10 million ILUMA users with ILUMA taking over 85% of HTU volume in the first launch market of Japan, Switzerland and Spain. ILUMA is also enabling better acquisition and conversion of legal age smokers with market share acceleration visible in both earlier and more recently launched markets, such as Italy and Korea.

對於現有的 IQOS 用戶，ILUMA 推動了一個加速的升級週期。這提高了未來的保留率和完全轉換率，同時集中設備銷售對利潤率產生了暫時的影響。事實上，我們現在正在接近約 1000 萬 ILUMA 用戶，ILUMA 在日本、瑞士和西班牙的首個發布市場佔據了 85% 以上的 HTU 銷量。 ILUMA 還能夠更好地獲取和轉化法定年齡的吸煙者，在意大利和韓國等早期和最近推出的市場上都可以看到市場份額的加速增長。

Since the introduction in these 2 markets in Q4, we are seeing encouraging trends in initial launch area and expect this to be increasingly visible at the national level over time as it is in Japan and Greece after a seasonal inflection in the latter. Our main focus in Q1 was on ensuring the success of ILUMA in the 16 markets launched by the end of 2022, which cover over half of our IQOS business by volumes. In addition, we launched ILUMA on a limited basis in Indonesia in February via our IQOS Club Member program.

自第四季度在這兩個市場推出以來，我們在初始推出區域看到了令人鼓舞的趨勢，並預計隨著時間的推移，這種趨勢在全國范圍內會越來越明顯，就像在日本和希臘經歷了季節性變化之後一樣。我們在第一季度的主要重點是確保 ILUMA 在 2022 年底推出的 16 個市場取得成功，這些市場覆蓋了我們一半以上的 IQOS 業務量。此外，我們於 2 月通過 IQOS 俱樂部會員計劃在印度尼西亞有限推出了 ILUMA。

This IQOS Club was introduced in 2019 and now has over 100,000 estimated users across 10 cities with a notable boost from the launch of ILUMA. We expect to progressively launch ILUMA in more markets this year. With ILUMA accelerating IQOS growth were launched, PMI HTUs continue to strengthen their position as the second largest nicotine brand in markets where IQOS is present with a record high share of 9% in Q1.

這個 IQOS 俱樂部於 2019 年推出，目前在 10 個城市擁有超過 100,000 名估計用戶，ILUMA 的推出帶來了顯著提升。我們預計今年將在更多市場逐步推出 ILUMA。隨著 ILUMA 加速 IQOS 增長的推出，PMI HTU 繼續鞏固其作為 IQOS 市場第二大尼古丁品牌的地位，第一季度的份額達到創紀錄的 9%。

Impressively, as of Q1 PMI HTUs are now the #1 nicotine brand in 10 markets with the addition of Italy and Greece during the quarter. Focusing now on Europe, which under our new regional structure include additional markets such as Ukraine, our first quarter HTU share increased by plus 1.7 points to reach 9.2% of total cigarette and HTU industry volume adjusted for estimated wholesaler and distributor inventory movement, such as those I mentioned earlier in Germany and Italy.

令人印象深刻的是，截至第一季度，PMI HTU 現在是 10 個市場中排名第一的尼古丁品牌，本季度還包括意大利和希臘。現在關注歐洲，在我們新的區域結構下，歐洲包括烏克蘭等其他市場，我們第一季度的 HTU 份額增加了 1.7 個百分點，達到捲菸和 HTU 行業總量的 9.2%，根據估計的批發商和分銷商庫存變動進行調整，例如我之前在德國和意大利提到的那些。

On the same adjusted basis, IMS volume continued to grow sequentially and reached a record high of 11.1 billion units on the 4-quarter moving average. This reflects strong progress across the region. We expect our Europe HTU volume to grow strongly in the remainder of the year, while as in the past, our quarterly HTU share of market can be impacted by seasonality of cigarette consumption during Q2 and Q3.

在相同的調整基礎上，IMS 數量繼續環比增長，並在 4 季度移動平均數上達到 111 億台的歷史新高。這反映了整個地區的巨大進步。我們預計我們的歐洲 HTU 銷量將在今年剩餘時間強勁增長，而與過去一樣，我們的季度 HTU 市場份額可能會受到第二季度和第三季度捲菸消費季節性的影響。

To give some further color on our outstanding progress in the region. Slide 16 shows the selection of the latest key cities offtake share. The success of IQOS continue across a diverse range of geographies from Western, Southern, Central and Eastern Europe, including markets with and without ILUMA. Notable standout include Budapest with over 35% offtake share as well as Rome and Athens reaching the high 20s. To my earlier comments, we are very pleased with performance in Germany, where offtake share in Munich surpassed 10% for the first time. We are also encouraged by recent positive regulatory developments in Greece, where the Ministry of Health approved differentiated health claim for heated tobacco product. Greece is the first country outside of the United States that permitted health-related statements following a robust scientific assessment.

為我們在該地區取得的顯著進步增添更多色彩。幻燈片 16 顯示了最新重點城市承購份額的選擇。 IQOS 在西歐、南歐、中歐和東歐的不同地區繼續取得成功，包括有和沒有 ILUMA 的市場。值得注意的是，布達佩斯擁有超過 35% 的承購份額，羅馬和雅典也達到了 20% 的高位。對於我之前的評論，我們對德國的表現非常滿意，慕尼黑的承購份額首次超過 10%。我們也對希臘最近積極的監管發展感到鼓舞，希臘衛生部批准了加熱煙草產品的差異化健康聲明。希臘是美國以外第一個在經過強有力的科學評估後允許發表與健康相關的聲明的國家。

In Japan, the heat-not-burn category now represents over 35% of total tobacco with IQOS driving category growth. The acceleration seen in recent quarters continued in Q1. Adjusted total tobacco share for our HTU brands increased by plus 3.4 points to 26.2%, with offtake share surpassing 32% in Tokyo and 30% in Sendai. Adjusted IMS volume again grew sequentially, reaching a record high of 9 billion units on the 4-quarter moving average.

在日本，加熱不燃燒類別現在佔煙草總量的 35% 以上，而 IQOS 推動類別增長。最近幾個季度的加速在第一季度繼續。我們的 HTU 品牌調整後的總煙草份額增加了 3.4 個百分點，達到 26.2%，東京的承銷份額超過 32%，仙台的份額超過 30%。調整後的 IMS 銷量再次環比增長，達到 4 季度移動平均線 90 億台的歷史新高。

Strong performance in Japan further highlight the importance of continuous innovation and a broad consumable portfolio. Our premium priced TEREA HTUs and mainstream price SENTIA HTUs continue to grow through Q1, strengthening their position as the 2 largest heat-not-burn brand. We are delighted with the progress in Japan. And as we look forward to further robust volume growth in the coming quarters, we would also like to remind you of the seasonality impact on quarterly share metrics.

日本的強勁表現進一步凸顯了持續創新和廣泛的耗材產品組合的重要性。我們的高價 TEREA HTU 和主流價格 SENTIA HTU 在第一季度繼續增長，鞏固了它們作為第二大加熱不燃燒品牌的地位。我們對日本的進展感到高興。在我們期待未來幾個季度銷量進一步強勁增長的同時，我們還想提醒您季節性對季度份額指標的影響。

In addition to stronger IQOS gains in developed countries, we continue to see very promising growth in low and middle income market, which are now approaching 30% of our total HTU volume. This slide highlights the selection of Q1 key city offtake shares across markets in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Asia and Latin America. Notable successes include Bulgaria with offtake share of over 16% and Egypt, where offtake share in Cairo reached 7.5%. We also continue to see robust offtake volume growth across these important future markets.

除了 IQOS 在發達國家的強勁增長外，我們繼續看到低收入和中等收入市場的增長非常有希望，目前已接近我們 HTU 總銷量的 30%。這張幻燈片重點介紹了東歐、中東、亞洲和拉丁美洲市場第一季度主要城市承購份額的選擇。顯著的成功包括保加利亞的承購份額超過 16% 和埃及，其中開羅的承購份額達到 7.5%。我們還繼續看到這些重要的未來市場的承購量強勁增長。

Now moving on to Swedish Match business, which delivered an excellent Q1 performance with currency-neutral net revenue growth of plus 14% and smoke-free product comprising 77% of total net revenues. Most impressive was the continued outstanding performance of ZYN in the U.S. with plus 47% volume growth to 73 million cans. While volume growth benefited from inventory movement, including restocking in California following the December flavor ban, underlying growth in volumes was very strong, estimated well above plus 30%.

現在轉向瑞典火柴業務，該業務在第一季度表現出色，貨幣中性淨收入增長了 14%，無菸產品佔總淨收入的 77%。最令人印象深刻的是 ZYN 在美國的持續出色表現，銷量增長 47% 至 7300 萬罐。雖然銷量增長受益於庫存變動，包括加州在 12 月風味禁令後的補貨，但潛在銷量增長非常強勁，估計遠高於正 30%。

We are also pleased with the Q1 performance in other U.S. smoke-free categories, including moist snuff, which gained plus 0.8 percentage point category share and delivered shipment volume growth of plus 3%. The smoke-free category in Scandinavia continued to grow, driven by nicotine pouches, albeit at a slower rate following January's new excise tax increase in Sweden and Norway with destocking accentuating the volume decline for Swedish Match premium skewed portfolio.

我們還對美國其他無菸類別的第一季度表現感到滿意，包括濕鼻煙，類別份額增加了 0.8 個百分點，出貨量增長了 3% 以上。斯堪的納維亞的無菸類別在尼古丁袋的推動下繼續增長，儘管在瑞典和挪威 1 月份新的消費稅上調之後增長速度有所放緩，去庫存加劇了瑞典火柴優質產品組合的銷量下降。

In cigars, the business delivered positive pricing and robust shipment volume growth of plus 4% in a declining category, driven by the strong development of natural leaf varieties. Finally, I would like to congratulate Swedish Match employees for continuing to deliver excellent results as we thoughtfully integrate our activities. The integration is progressing very well, and we look forward to sharing more on our combined growth plan later this year.

在雪茄方面，由於天然菸葉品種的強勁發展，該業務在下降的類別中實現了積極的定價和強勁的出貨量增長 4%。最後，我要祝賀 Swedish Match 員工在我們深思熟慮地整合我們的活動時繼續取得優異成績。整合進展順利，我們期待在今年晚些時候分享更多關於我們合併增長計劃的信息。

Now let's examine ZYN's recent U.S. performance in more detail. Super progress continued with a record increase in 12 months rolling shipment volume of 23 million cans, which equates to plus 40% growth. Category volume share remained essentially stable, despite continued heavy competitive discounting from less premium offerings. Importantly, retail value share for ZYN also remained strong at 75.6%, highlighting its premium positioning and superior brand equity.

現在讓我們更詳細地研究一下 ZYN 最近在美國的表現。超級進步繼續，12 個月的滾動出貨量達到創紀錄的 2300 萬罐，相當於增長 40%。品類銷量份額基本保持穩定，儘管溢價較低的產品持續提供極具競爭力的折扣。重要的是，ZYN 的零售價值份額也保持在 75.6% 的強勁水平，凸顯了其優質定位和卓越的品牌資產。

There are 2 key engine driving the U.S. growth of ZYN as covered at CAGNY. First is a progressive increase in distribution with a number of stores plus 13% higher than Q1 2022 at around 140,000. There remains ample opportunity to further increase this over time. Second, our velocity or the number of cans sold per store per week, ZYN velocity is going to grow sequentially and by an impressive plus 21% compared to prior year as the brand continued to resonate with adult nicotine users.

正如 CAGNY 所涵蓋的那樣，有 2 個關鍵引擎推動了 ZYN 在美國的增長。首先是分銷逐步增加，門店數量比 2022 年第一季度增加 13%，達到 140,000 家左右。隨著時間的推移，仍有足夠的機會進一步增加這一點。其次，我們的速度或每家商店每週售出的易拉罐數量，ZYN 速度將連續增長，與去年相比增長 21%，令人印象深刻，因為該品牌繼續引起成人尼古丁用戶的共鳴。

Now let me update you on our exciting plans to further accelerate our smoke-free journey. As previously mentioned, the full global rollout of IQOS ILUMA is a major priority. We are on track to make substantial progress this year as HTU manufacturing constraints continue to ease. We continue to work on our IQOS U.S. commercialization plan for launch in Q2 2024 in line with the principle outlined at the recent CAGNY Conference.

現在讓我向您介紹我們進一步加速無菸之旅的激動人心的計劃。如前所述，IQOS ILUMA 的全面全球推廣是重中之重。隨著 HTU 製造限制繼續放鬆，我們有望在今年取得實質性進展。我們將根據最近的 CAGNY 會議上概述的原則，繼續制定將於 2024 年第二季度推出的 IQOS 美國商業化計劃。

With the benefit of the expertise and commercial tools from launching IQOS successfully in over 70 international markets and the U.S. market with a clear regulatory framework and the ability to communicate with adult smokers, we remain very positive about the opportunity. Importantly, we believe we can make the necessary investment in the U.S. business, generating additional top line performance while continuing to deliver strong bottom line growth for PMI during the investment period.

憑藉在 70 多個國際市場和美國市場成功推出 IQOS 的專業知識和商業工具，以及明確的監管框架和與成年吸煙者溝通的能力，我們對這個機會仍然非常樂觀。重要的是，我們相信我們可以對美國業務進行必要的投資，產生額外的收入業績，同時在投資期間繼續為 PMI 帶來強勁的利潤增長。

In addition to our premium offerings, we are continuing to focus on BONDS, our latest heat-not-burn innovation, that is especially relevant for low- and middle-income consumer. Pilot launches in the Philippines and Colombia are progressing well, and we intend to continue taking the learnings from this market before deploying on a wider scale. Another key midterm opportunity from the Swedish Match combination is the international expansion of nicotine pouches, notably within the world's leading brand.

除了我們的優質產品外，我們還繼續關注 BONDS，這是我們最新的加熱不燃燒創新產品，它特別適合中低收入消費者。在菲律賓和哥倫比亞的試點啟動進展順利，我們打算在更廣泛的部署之前繼續從這個市場吸取經驗教訓。 Swedish Match 組合的另一個關鍵中期機會是尼古丁袋的國際擴張，尤其是在世界領先品牌中。

At CAGNY, I mentioned we are targeting up to 10 launches or relaunches this year as we look to develop the category with adult smoker who value the convenient, specific use occasion, test and satisfaction. We expect this to commence in a few markets this summer, including both developed and emerging countries. While staying clearly focused on the heat-not-burn and nicotine pouch category, which present the largest and most accretive growth opportunities, we are adjusting our VEEV e-vapor portfolio approach. We intend to focus on commercializing in select markets and prioritizing profitability, given the known category challenges.

在 CAGNY，我提到我們今年的目標是推出或重新推出 10 款產品，因為我們希望與重視方便、特定使用場合、測試和滿意度的成年吸煙者一起開發這一類別。我們預計這將在今年夏天在一些市場開始，包括發達國家和新興國家。在明確關注加熱不燃燒和尼古丁袋類別的同時，我們正在調整我們的 VEEV 電子蒸汽產品組合方法，這些類別提供了最大和最具增值性的增長機會。鑑於已知的類別挑戰，我們打算專注於在特定市場進行商業化並優先考慮盈利能力。

VEEV 1 is a new pod-based system providing an enhanced user experience with fully outsourced manufacturing of devices and consumables to optimize cost. VEEV 1 will replace the current VEEV product. And as a result, we no longer intend to file a PMTA for the former technology. Instead, we will focus our near-term FDA engagement on IQOS and ZYN. We will come back on future e-vapor FDA authorizations in due course.

VEEV 1 是一種新的基於 pod 的系統，通過完全外包設備和耗材製造來優化成本，從而提供增強的用戶體驗。 VEEV 1 將取代當前的 VEEV 產品。因此，我們不再打算為以前的技術提交 PMTA。相反，我們將把我們近期 FDA 的參與重點放在 IQOS 和 ZYN 上。我們將在適當的時候返回未來的電子蒸汽 FDA 授權。

For this possible, the fastest-growing e-vapor segment, we are rebranding VEEBA to VEEV now. All of our e-vapor product will now be under the single recognizable brand VEEV for a seamless consumer experience. We will introduce a new VEEV 1 platform in Canada later this month and will apply an agile and disciplined approach for further VEEV rollout later this year.

為了實現這一增長最快的電子蒸汽細分市場，我們現在將 VEEBA 更名為 VEEV。我們所有的電子蒸汽產品現在都將歸入單一知名品牌 VEEV，以提供無縫的消費者體驗。我們將於本月晚些時候在加拿大推出一個新的 VEEV 1 平台，並將在今年晚些時候採用敏捷和規範的方法進一步推出 VEEV。

Moving to sustainability. I want to first draw your attention to our 2022 integrated report published earlier this month, which outlines the progress we are making towards achieving our purpose and smoke-free future. The report provides a comprehensive run-through of all our most material sustainability topic. This includes those in focus for investors such as post-consumer waste, use access prevention, decarbonization and our resource allocation towards advancing our smoothly transformation.

轉向可持續性。我想首先提請您注意我們本月早些時候發布的 2022 年綜合報告，其中概述了我們在實現我們的目標和無菸未來方面取得的進展。該報告全面介紹了我們所有最重要的可持續發展主題。這包括投資者關注的焦點，例如消費後廢物、使用預防、脫碳以及我們為推進順利轉型而進行的資源分配。

In conjunction with the integrated report, we also published an updated ESG KPI protocol, providing even more robust criteria on how we define success and measure ESG performance. It focuses on the KPIs included in our Sustainability Index, which, as outlined in our 2023 proxy statement, continue to represent 30% of our long-term performance-based equity executive compensation.

結合綜合報告，我們還發布了更新的 ESG KPI 協議，為我們如何定義成功和衡量 ESG 績效提供了更穩健的標準。它側重於我們可持續發展指數中包含的 KPI，正如我們 2023 年委託書所述，這些 KPI 繼續占我們基於長期績效的股權高管薪酬的 30%。

I am also proud to announce that we released our first TCFD report yesterday, which updates and comprise our previous disclosure on how we are implementing the recommendation of the task force on climate-related financial disclosures in 1 document. This will be an important topic for many companies as reporting regulations evolve. Lastly, we are also pleased that following CDP's AAA recognition, PMI was again included in CDP's Supplier Engagement Leaderboard, contributing towards achieving our Scope 3 ambitions.

我也很自豪地宣布，我們昨天發布了第一份 TCFD 報告，該報告更新並包含了我們之前在一份文件中披露的有關我們如何實施氣候相關財務披露工作組建議的信息。隨著報告法規的發展，這將成為許多公司的重要話題。最後，我們也很高興繼 CDP 的 AAA 認可之後，PMI 再次被列入 CDP 的供應商參與排行榜，為實現我們的範圍 3 目標做出了貢獻。

To conclude today's presentation, we are on for a strong performance in 2023, despite margin headwinds. Our underlying growth fundamentals remain strong, and we expect these headwinds to progressively ease through the year. Indeed, we delivered higher-than-expected Q1 results, which put us on track for the third consecutive year of high single-digit organic net revenue growth. Continued excellent IQOS and ZYN performance further enhances our position as a global smoke-free champion with leadership position in the largest category of heat-not-burn and the fastest-growing category of oral nicotine.

總結今天的演講，儘管利潤不利，我們仍有望在 2023 年取得強勁表現。我們的潛在增長基本面依然強勁，我們預計這些不利因素將在今年逐步緩解。事實上，我們交付了高於預期的第一季度業績，這使我們有望連續第三年實現高個位數的有機淨收入增長。持續出色的IQOS和ZYN表現進一步鞏固了我們作為全球無菸冠軍的地位，在最大的加熱不燃燒類別和增長最快的口服尼古丁類別中處於領先地位。

We are taking actions through pricing in combustible and our cost-saving initiatives to recover cost inflation as we progress rapidly towards our ambition to become the majority smoke-free business. Finally, we remain a highly cash-generative business with an unwavering commitment to our progressive dividend policy. We look forward to further rewarding our shareholders as our transformation delivers sustainable growth.

我們正在採取行動，通過對可燃物定價和我們的成本節約計劃來恢復成本膨脹，因為我們正在迅速朝著成為大多數無菸企業的雄心邁進。最後，我們仍然是一家高現金生成業務，堅定不移地致力於我們的漸進式股息政策。隨著我們的轉型帶來可持續增長，我們期待進一步回報我們的股東。

Thank you, and we are now extremely happy to answer your questions.

謝謝，我們現在非常樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們將從 Bonnie Herzog 和 Goldman Sachs 提出我們的第一個問題。

So I guess I have a question on your guidance as it relates to Q2. It does now seem to be a bit lighter, implying a lot more of the growth is now expected to be in the back half. So just trying to get a sense of how conservative your Q2 guide might be amend. Really, Emmanuel, how much visibility and confidence you have that your business really can accelerate and outperform in the second half? Maybe you could highlight for us some of the key puts and takes that give you this confidence and maybe where you see the greatest potential upside. And also give color on this?

所以我想我對你的指導有疑問，因為它與第二季度有關。現在看起來確實有點輕，這意味著現在預計更多的增長將出現在後半部分。因此，只是想了解一下您的 Q2 指南可能會修改到多保守。真的，伊曼紐爾，您對您的業務在下半年真正可以加速發展並表現出色有多大的知名度和信心？也許你可以為我們強調一些關鍵的看跌期權和看跌期權，它們會給你這種信心，也許你會看到最大的潛在優勢。還要給這個上色？

Okay. Not, sure, Bonnie. Happy to do that. And I guess -- thanks for the question because that helps me clarify certainly the phasing of the profit generation this year. I think we're not coming with any different message from what we said back in February. We always said that we would be facing in the first half of the year a number of headwinds on profitability that there would be some inventory movement playing. We highlighted that, and we clearly said there will be margin improvement coming in the second part of the year.

好的。不，當然，邦妮。很高興這樣做。我想 - 感謝這個問題，因為這肯定有助於我澄清今年利潤產生的階段。我認為我們不會帶來與我們 2 月份所說的不同的信息。我們總是說，我們將在今年上半年面臨一些盈利能力的不利因素，即會有一些庫存變動。我們強調了這一點，我們明確表示今年下半年利潤率將有所改善。

And we are coming today exactly with the same message. We are pleased to have a Q1 that is above our initial expectation. We never gave a guidance until today on Q2. But I think what we are seeing today on Q2 is coming with a lot of positive. We are explaining that we do expect an acceleration of the top line. We are talking about high single-digit growth that we are targeting for the second quarter.

我們今天帶著完全相同的信息前來。我們很高興第一季度超出了我們最初的預期。直到今天，我們才對第二季度給出了指導。但我認為我們今天在第二季度看到的情況帶來了很多積極因素。我們正在解釋說，我們確實預計收入會加速增長。我們正在談論我們為第二季度設定的高個位數增長目標。

And that's, of course, going to be a very nice contribution to the performance in the second quarter. That is highlighting the momentum that we have on the business that we see behind IQOS that is not capturing the ZYN growth for the second quarter. So ZYN is just coming in addition to this organic growth. So I think it gives an idea of how nicely up and running and dynamic is our business.

當然，這將對第二季度的業績做出非常好的貢獻。這突顯了我們在 IQOS 背後看到的業務勢頭，該勢頭沒有抓住第二季度 ZYN 的增長。因此，除了這種有機增長之外，ZYN 剛剛到來。因此，我認為它讓我們了解了我們的業務是如何順利啟動、運行和充滿活力的。

Now in terms of margin, it is true that, again, in Q2, we're going to have a number of headwinds and notably at the level of the gross margin. So we're going to continue to have a number of impacts coming from inflation. This is going to be progressively corrected, but I think you should expect another quarter with gross margin rate declining in a material manner versus 2022.

現在就利潤率而言，確實，在第二季度，我們將再次遇到一些不利因素，尤其是在毛利率水平上。因此，我們將繼續受到通貨膨脹的影響。這將逐步得到糾正，但我認為你應該期待另一個季度的毛利率與 2022 年相比出現實質性下降。

And then the second part of the year will be showing improvement, again, in line with our initial thoughts, where, I guess, you're going to start seeing in terms of margin evolution, some more positive impact. This is on the revenue -- sorry, SG&A to revenue ratio where we have seen a deterioration in Q1. I think -- I'm not saying that we will have SG&A growing at a lower pace than revenue in Q2, but I expect the growth of SG&A in Q2 to be closer to the revenue, and therefore, that will weigh less on the operating income margin.

然後今年下半年將再次顯示出改善，與我們最初的想法一致，我想，你將開始在利潤率演變方面看到一些更積極的影響。這是關於收入——抱歉，SG&A 與收入的比率，我們看到第一季度有所惡化。我認為 - 我並不是說我們的 SG&A 增長速度將低於第二季度的收入，但我預計第二季度 SG&A 的增長將更接近收入，因此，這對運營的影響較小收入差。

But that's really what you should expect in terms of sequence for the year. Again, we expect very nice acceleration for the top line, just confirming the nice momentum that we are experiencing in the business. And we have this ramp-up on the margin that is coming progressively, it going to show up first at the level of the SG&A on revenue. And in H2, we are expecting, as we said, a better evolution of the gross margin rate. So far, we're just confirming initial expectations.

但就今年的順序而言，這確實是你應該期待的。同樣，我們預計收入會出現非常好的加速，這只是證實了我們在業務中所經歷的良好勢頭。我們的利潤率正在逐步上升，它將首先出現在 SG&A 的收入水平上。正如我們所說，在下半年，我們預計毛利率會有更好的發展。到目前為止，我們只是在確認最初的預期。

No, that's super helpful. And just sounds like you've got some pretty good visibility. So that's -- yes, definitely helpful. And then I guess just maybe a quick high-level question on the health of the consumer in sort of your key markets, if you could kind of touch on that for us. And then in the context of that, you've certainly been putting in stronger combustible cig pricing. So just love to hear a little more color on how the consumer has been responding to those actions and really how confident you are that you're going to be able to continue to push through that pricing for the remainder of the year.

不，那超級有用。聽起來你的能見度很好。這就是——是的，絕對有幫助。然後我想可能只是一個關於你的主要市場消費者健康的快速高級問題，如果你能為我們談談這個問題。然後在這種情況下，你肯定已經投入了更強大的可燃香煙定價。因此，很高興聽到更多有關消費者如何響應這些行為的信息，以及您對能夠在今年餘下時間繼續推動該定價的信心。

Yes. Well, I'm not going to say that we don't see any pressure on the consumer in the world. It is quite obvious. And of course, I'm not talking about the U.S., which maybe you could deserve a separate comment. But it is clear that in countries such as the Philippines, for instance, we see some impact on the business coming from purchasing power. I think we see some of that as well in Indonesia. So there are markets where there was already some pressure on purchasing power, possibly leading to some down trading and that has continued to play as we progress through the beginning of 2023.

是的。好吧，我不會說我們沒有看到世界消費者面臨任何壓力。這是很明顯的。當然，我不是在談論美國，也許你應該單獨發表評論。但很明顯，在菲律賓等國家，我們看到購買力對業務產生了一些影響。我認為我們在印度尼西亞也看到了其中的一些。因此，有些市場的購買力已經存在一些壓力，可能導致一些下跌交易，並且隨著我們在 2023 年初的進展，這種情況仍在繼續。

But I have to say that in many markets, we haven't seen clear signs so far. We have to stay very cautious, of course, of pressure on the consumer or massive down trading. We don't see that. The Marlboro market share was a bit down, but I don't think that is clearly reflecting at that stage a pressure on the premium part of our portfolio. And we've been increasing prices, as you have seen in a very significant manner. Of course, competition not immediately or not totally responding to our price increase that can have an impact on our market share. But I would say, so far, we have the feeling that in a highly inflationary environment, the consumer is taking as normal and is not seeing as an issue to see also price increase on this tobacco product.

但我不得不說，在許多市場上，到目前為止我們還沒有看到明顯的跡象。當然，我們必須保持非常謹慎的態度，以免對消費者造成壓力或大量下跌交易。我們看不到這一點。萬寶路的市場份額有所下降，但我認為這並沒有清楚地反映出在那個階段我們投資組合的高端部分面臨壓力。正如您所看到的那樣，我們一直在提高價格。當然，競爭不會立即或沒有完全響應我們的價格上漲，這可能會對我們的市場份額產生影響。但我要說的是，到目前為止，我們的感覺是，在高度通貨膨脹的環境中，消費者認為這種煙草產品的價格上漲是正常的，而不是一個問題。

We'll take our next question from Gaurav Jain with Barclays.

我們將接受來自巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain 的下一個問題。

So the first question I have is on FX. So in Feb, you had guided for a $0.15 headwind. Now it is $0.30, Egyptian pound had depreciated by Jan. And then, yes, yen has gone down a bit, but euro, which is a much bigger currency for you, is up also a bit more than that. So ruble can't be that big, right? Or is it becoming bigger this year versus last year? So could you just help us explain the FX.

所以我的第一個問題是關於外匯。所以在 2 月，你曾指導 0.15 美元的逆風。現在是 0.30 美元，埃及鎊到 1 月份已經貶值。然後，是的，日元已經貶值了一點，但是歐元，對你來說是一種更重要的貨幣，漲幅也不止於此。所以盧布不可能那麼大，對吧？還是今年比去年更大？那麼你能幫我們解釋一下 FX 嗎？

Yes, Gaurav. So I think you rightly pointed to the ruble. Actually, if you are not going to disclose currency by currency, but if you look at the ruble, just the ruble is more than the net impact of $0.30 that today we are anticipating for the year. So I think it shows a very strong impact of the ruble. And the Egyptian pound continue to devaluate after January. So it's -- I'm not sure we had the full impact of the Egyptian pound.

是的，高拉夫。所以我認為你正確地指出了盧布。實際上，如果您不打算按貨幣披露貨幣，但如果您看一下盧布，就會發現僅盧布就超過了我們今天預計的今年 0.30 美元的淨影響。所以我認為這顯示了盧布的強烈影響。而埃鎊在1月之後繼續貶值。所以它——我不確定我們是否受到了埃及鎊的全面影響。

And actually, if you accumulate ruble and the Egyptian pound, you have 80% of the net impact of $0.30. It's a net impact. Don't get me wrong because you have also the yen that is quite negative. And then you have the euro and a number of other categories that is positive. But I think with the ruble and the Egyptian pound, you have a pretty good explanation of the net impact. I hope it's helpful.

實際上，如果您積累盧布和埃及鎊，您將獲得 0.30 美元淨影響的 80%。這是一個淨影響。不要誤會我的意思，因為日元也很消極。然後你有歐元和其他一些積極的類別。但我認為盧布和埃及鎊可以很好地解釋淨影響。希望對您有所幫助。

Okay, sure. And second, the U.S. cigarette volumes industry level are quite weak, minus 9%. And then looking at the European data that you shared, it is -- the industry volumes are flat on what were already very strong comps. And the reasons what have been mentioned for the U.S. industry weakness, which is macro, weak consumer, stimulus payments going off, disposable e-cigarette growth, I could apply the same logic to EU consumer, EU smoker and still the volumes are so much better than trend. So is there a -- can you explain like why are the U.S. smoker and EU smoker, why are they behaving so differently?

好的，當然。其次，美國捲菸行業水平相當疲軟，為-9%。然後看看你分享的歐洲數據，它是 - 行業數量與已經非常強大的組合持平。以及美國工業疲軟的原因，即宏觀經濟、消費者疲軟、刺激性支出減少、一次性電子煙增長，我可以將相同的邏輯應用於歐盟消費者、歐盟吸煙者，但數量仍然如此之多優於趨勢。那麼有沒有 - 你能解釋一下為什麼美國吸煙者和歐盟吸煙者，為什麼他們的行為如此不同？

Gaurav, I cannot -- and I will have to consider that I'm not the greatest specialist of the U.S. consumer for combustible cigarettes. So I wonder myself to give an analysis. I think it's in line with my previous comment on the fact that so far, we have been a pretty good resistance from the consumer to same price increase and coping with inflation in Europe. I'm not able to tell you why there is a difference here. We know that the social model in Europe is different. You may have some more protection, some more safety needs that are playing and maybe limiting the impact of inflation.

Gaurav，我不能——而且我將不得不考慮到我不是美國最偉大的可燃香煙消費者專家。所以我想自己來分析一下。我認為這與我之前的評論一致，即到目前為止，我們一直很好地抵制消費者對同樣的價格上漲和應對歐洲的通貨膨脹。我無法告訴你為什麼這裡有區別。我們知道歐洲的社會模式是不同的。你可能有更多的保護，更多的安全需求正在發揮作用，並且可能會限制通貨膨脹的影響。

There was maybe more compensation given from various government on trying to fight again energy price increase and sometimes compensating of agricultural product inflation across a number of geographies. So that can be one element to explain why the European consumer is resisting better. But I'm not going to pretend that I have the perfect answer to your question.

各國政府可能會提供更多的補償，以試圖再次打擊能源價格上漲，有時還會補償多個地區的農產品通脹。因此，這可以成為解釋為什麼歐洲消費者抵抗力更強的一個因素。但我不會假裝我對你的問題有完美的答案。

And we'll take our next question from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.

我們將與摩根士丹利一起接受 Pamela Kaufman 的下一個問題。

I was hoping that you could elaborate a bit more on your SG&A investment for this year. What are the key areas that you are investing behind and the step up in that investment in Q1? I guess how much of this reflects structural increases in inflation driving higher costs versus incremental investment that you're making behind ILUMA and your Health and Wellness and Swedish Match businesses?

我希望您能詳細說明今年的 SG&A 投資。您投資的關鍵領域是什麼，以及在第一季度加大投資力度？我想這在多大程度上反映了通貨膨脹的結構性增加導致成本上升，而不是你在 ILUMA 和你的健康與保健和瑞典火柴業務背後進行的增量投資？

Again, I'm going to try to go as far as I can, as you can imagine, some of that is super sensitive, so we're not going to share in detail what we are investing and where. First of all, trying to give you perspective for the full year. We believe we're going to have our SG&A growing faster than revenue organically. But nevertheless, we expect a limited discrepancy between the two. So that means that as we progress through 2023, you should expect the growth of our SG&A to converge with the top line growth. I'm speaking here organic.

同樣，我將盡我所能，正如你想像的那樣，其中一些是超級敏感的，所以我們不會詳細分享我們正在投資的內容和投資地點。首先，嘗試為您提供全年的觀點。我們相信我們的 SG&A 增長速度將超過收入的有機增長速度。但儘管如此，我們預計兩者之間的差異有限。因此，這意味著隨著我們到 2023 年的進展，您應該期望我們的 SG&A 的增長與收入增長趨同。我在這裡說的是有機的。

And Q1 is really, I would say, impacted by a number of one-off both, by the way, on the basis of comparison, if you look at our Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 numbers last year, sequentially, you will see that Q1 was very low, both because we did not invest at the same moment of the year. So there is a phasing in investment and also because there was some one-off positive last year. So don't take Q1 as a reference.

我想說的是，第一季度確實受到了一些一次性的影響，順便說一句，在比較的基礎上，如果你看看我們去年的第一季度、第二季度、第三季度、第四季度的數字，你會看到第一季度非常低，因為我們沒有在一年中的同一時間進行投資。所以投資分階段進行，也因為去年有一些一次性的積極因素。所以不要拿Q1作為參考。

Having said that, we are facing inflation, of course, in our SG&A. It's a lot of people cost. And of course, we are increasing salaries. But we're also indeed generating some efficiency. So that is giving us some leeway to invest on our priority. It's about, of course, commercial investment on our priority, as you can expect. So it's everything on marketing commercial to boost IQOS. That is, of course, a big driver. It is the investment that we are making to prepare the U.S. We talk about the investment that we are making in Wellness and Healthcare.

話雖如此，我們的 SG&A 當然面臨通貨膨脹。這是很多人的成本。當然，我們正在增加薪水。但我們也確實產生了一些效率。所以這給了我們一些餘地來投資我們的優先事項。正如您所料，這當然是我們優先考慮的商業投資。因此，營銷廣告上的一切都是為了提升 IQOS。當然，這是一個很大的驅動力。這是我們為讓美國做好準備而進行的投資。我們談論的是我們在健康和醫療保健方面進行的投資。

We continue to innovate a lot. We have innovation in the pipe for all our smoke-free product. And of course, that is also having some impact. So that is really what is driving this growth, and we continue to see as important this capacity that we have to cope with inflation, to invest for the future and at the same time, to have an SG&A evolution that thanks to the dynamism of the business is allowing us to still generate nice operating income and net profit growth. That's what I can share with you.

我們繼續進行大量創新。我們對所有無菸產品的煙斗進行了創新。當然，這也產生了一些影響。所以這才是推動這種增長的真正原因，我們繼續認為這種能力很重要，我們必須應對通貨膨脹，為未來投資，同時，由於業務使我們仍然能夠產生可觀的營業收入和淨利潤增長。這就是我可以與您分享的內容。

Okay. And then can you talk about your change in your e-cig strategy? What prompted your strategy towards IQOS VEEV? And how are you thinking about the category over the long term and your participation in it?

好的。然後你能談談你在電子煙策略上的變化嗎？是什麼促使您制定 IQOS VEEV 戰略？從長遠來看，您如何看待該類別以及您對它的參與？

Look, I think we've already been clear that while we were clearly developing some offering on the vaping category, this was not our priority. We had IQOS. And now I would say we are even more taken by 2 priorities, which are IQOS and ZYN. When you have such a fantastic team and the potential that they have to deliver very strong top line growth, volume growth, revenue growth and in a very nicely profitable fashion, that's really the priority.

聽著，我想我們已經很清楚，雖然我們正在開發電子煙產品，但這不是我們的首要任務。我們有 IQOS。現在我想說我們更關注兩個優先事項，即 IQOS 和 ZYN。當你擁有一支如此出色的團隊，並且他們有潛力實現非常強勁的收入增長、銷量增長、收入增長，並以非常有利可圖的方式盈利時，這才是真正的重中之重。

I guess you listened to us at CAGNY and we expressed the questioning that we have on the vaping category today, which are around the absence of clear regulation in many countries. The fact that, that is giving way to an appropriate marketing activities, risk of underage consumption. And also the fact that this is a category where so far it's difficult. I'm not saying impossible, but difficult to see a lot of profitable model being developed. And therefore, that is pushing us to look at that and continue to work on this category and the fact that we are coming with this evolution of the range, I think, is just in line with the fact that the technology is evolving. We see the customer needs evolving as well. That's why we are developing VEEV now.

我猜你在 CAGNY 聽過我們的演講，我們表達了我們今天對電子菸類別的質疑，這是圍繞許多國家缺乏明確監管的問題。事實證明，就是適當的營銷活動讓位於未成年消費的風險。還有一個事實是，到目前為止，這是一個困難的類別。我並不是說不可能，但很難看到正在開發大量盈利模式。因此，這促使我們審視這一點並繼續致力於這一類別，而我認為，我們正在進行範圍的這種演變，這與技術不斷發展的事實是一致的。我們看到客戶需求也在不斷變化。這就是我們現在開發 VEEV 的原因。

But we're going to be focused. So it's not going to be across geography. It's going to be where the vaping category is relevant. It's going to be where we have a differentiation, where we have the commercial strength to make an impact. And I think it is a much better strategy to do that, develop a few successes instead of exhausting ourselves in trying to develop something global today, when we don't see necessarily the ingredient of the driver for that to happen in an interesting manner, both in terms of growth, top line and bottom line progression.

但我們要專注。所以它不會跨越地域。這將是 vaping 類別相關的地方。這將是我們有差異化的地方，我們有商業實力來產生影響。而且我認為這樣做是一個更好的策略，取得一些成功而不是耗儘自己在今天嘗試發展全球化的東西，當我們不一定看到驅動因素以有趣的方式發生時，無論是在增長、頂線還是底線進展方面。

And we'll take our next question from Vivien Azer with TD Cowen.

我們將與 TD Cowen 一起接受 Vivien Azer 的下一個問題。

So my first question is a follow-up to Gaurav's, please. In terms of your current FX outlook, does that contemplate another devaluation of the Egyptian pound because my understanding is that's pretty well expected at this point?

所以我的第一個問題是 Gaurav 的後續問題。就您目前的外匯前景而言，這是否會考慮埃及鎊的另一次貶值，因為我的理解是目前這是非常合理的預期？

So it does not because, of course, we don't have any idea of what it could be, when it could happen. So these are really an average that we take on the spot in the day before the announcement and not taking any kind of forward-looking or whatever consensus for currency evolution. You have a lot of people today that believe that the euro is set for a nice wide against the dollar in the coming months. Frankly, we're not betting on any kind of possible evolution, but really just working on the spot.

所以它不是因為，當然，我們不知道它會是什麼，什麼時候會發生。因此，這些實際上是我們在宣布前一天當場採用的平均值，並沒有對貨幣演變採取任何前瞻性或任何共識。今天有很多人認為，未來幾個月歐元兌美元匯率將走高。坦率地說，我們並沒有押注任何可能的進化，而只是在現場工作。

Okay. That's fair. I understand you're not in the business of predicting currency. It just seems like this is tied to the IMS bailout. So it seems reasonable to that. My follow-up question then is on the Swedish Match margins, which came in quite nicely. I was just curious, given the incremental inventory benefit that you saw in California, like how should we think about the 1Q margin in context of a normalized margin? Was there an incremental margin benefit that we should be backing out mentally as we think about what the appropriate level of profitability is for that business?

好的。這還算公平。我知道你不是從事預測貨幣的業務。這似乎與 IMS 救助有關。所以這似乎是合理的。我的後續問題是關於瑞典火柴的利潤率，結果非常好。我只是很好奇，考慮到您在加利福尼亞看到的增量庫存收益，比如我們應該如何在標準化利潤率的背景下考慮 1Q 利潤率？當我們考慮該業務的適當盈利水平時，是否存在我們應該在心理上退出的增量利潤收益？

Well, Vivien, I think what I can share with you is that I believe Q1 is just the bright confirmation of what we said, i.e., Swedish Match is coming with a very nicely accretive impact to the PMI growth. It is true for the volume, it is true for the revenue, and it is true for the profitability. So indeed, ZYN growing in the U.S. very nicely, and I don't come back on this north of 30% growth without the impact of California. That is driving a business that is nicely profitable, that is itself accretive to the Swedish Match average business. And therefore, of course, to PMI.

好吧，Vivien，我想我可以與你分享的是，我相信第一季度只是對我們所說的的明確證實，即瑞典火柴對 PMI 增長產生了非常好的增長影響。銷量是這樣，收入是這樣，盈利能力也是這樣。所以事實上，ZYN 在美國的增長非常好，如果沒有加利福尼亞的影響，我不會回到 30% 的北部增長。這推動了一項利潤豐厚的業務，這本身就增加了瑞典火柴的平均業務。因此，當然，對於 PMI。

And it is just very good news to have this engine for growth. Frankly, I mean, I don't want to repeat myself, but IQOS and ZYN together, that just a very exciting pair, and ZYN is coming as a very nice top line and margin enhancement role, and we expect that to continue.

擁有這種增長引擎真是個好消息。坦率地說，我的意思是，我不想重複自己的話，但 IQOS 和 ZYN 在一起，這是一個非常令人興奮的組合，ZYN 將成為一個非常好的收入和利潤提升角色，我們希望這種情況能夠繼續下去。

And we'll take our next question from Andrei Condrea with UBS.

我們將接受安德烈·康德里亞 (Andrei Condrea) 和瑞銀 (UBS) 的下一個問題。

Two from me, please, if you don't mind. Firstly, on the input cost inflation side of things. Obviously, your ILUMA margins will have efficiencies coming online later this year. But in terms of the other headwinds you flagged, leaf and acetate tow is there any color what you can give on just how big these headwinds are?

如果你不介意的話，請給我兩份。首先，在投入成本通脹方面。顯然，您的 ILUMA 利潤率將在今年晚些時候上線。但是就您標記的其他逆風而言，葉束和醋酸纖維絲束有什麼顏色可以說明這些逆風有多大？

Well, they are very material, but we flagged that. And I think once again, we explained that in Q1, and we expect that to continue in Q2. This big increase in energy price, leaf price, acetate tow is going to be the biggest driver for the pressure on the gross margin. Now as we enter the second half of the year and notably towards the end of the year, we believe that these elements will be -- well, first of all, will be facing already with some of the bad news in H2.

好吧，它們非常重要，但我們標記了這一點。我再次認為，我們在第一季度對此進行了解釋，我們希望在第二季度繼續如此。能源價格、菸葉價格、醋酸絲束價格的大幅上漲將成為毛利率壓力的最大驅動因素。現在，當我們進入今年下半年，尤其是年底時，我們相信這些因素將——好吧，首先，將面臨下半年的一些壞消息。

So of course, the period-on-period comparison will be, of course, easier. And then we keep working on productivity. We may keep working on our COGS to see all optimization. So this negative pressure, I'm not saying is going to disappear, but it's going to ease versus what we are experiencing in H1. But I would expect in Q2, the pressure to remain very strong at that level.

因此，當然，期間比較當然會更容易。然後我們繼續致力於提高生產力。我們可能會繼續研究 COGS 以查看所有優化。所以這種負面壓力，我並不是說會消失，但與我們在上半年所經歷的相比，它會有所緩解。但我預計在第二季度，壓力將在該水平上保持非常強大。

That's very clear. And my second question is a bit more long-term. Obviously, we saw one of your peers come out with a new product at the Investor Day for the nicotine pouch space for the U.S. And at the same time, your other peers bringing the European product in. Is there a scope for a similar innovation for ZYN, given the criticism -- well, rather than drawback it has -- it being of a much drier product versus the European counter parts.

這很清楚。我的第二個問題有點長遠。顯然，我們看到您的一位同行在投資者日為美國的尼古丁袋空間推出了新產品。與此同時，您的其他同行將歐洲產品引入。是否有類似創新的空間ZYN，考慮到批評 - 好吧，而不是缺點 - 它是一種比歐洲同類產品更乾燥的產品。

Yes. I believe that with Swedish Match, we have the biggest specialist, super-focused, knowledgeable player of the oral nicotine category. So we've been adding to that amazing skill, the 13 -- you may remember that we bought this company that is specialized in formulation of product some of them, including nicotine, and that can also come with very nice innovation in the form factors. So you should expect us. Of course, don't expect me to come down with detail, but you should certainly expect us to come with nice innovation.

是的。我相信通過 Swedish Match，我們擁有口服尼古丁類別中最大的專家、超級專注、知識淵博的玩家。所以我們一直在增加這項驚人的技能，13——你可能還記得我們收購了這家專門從事產品配方的公司，其中一些產品包括尼古丁，而且在外形因素方面也可以帶來非常好的創新.所以你應該期待我們。當然，不要指望我會談及細節，但你當然應該期待我們帶來不錯的創新。

There is certainly the appetite in some area from the consumer to try new things, new reduced risk product to develop this oral nicotine category in other spaces, probably the consumer doesn't know as well what can be done. So it's for us, it's our duty to come and make some proposal. But I guess you can expect us, and I think we demonstrate that PMI and now in the PMI per Swedish Match to be leading innovation in this category as well in the future.

消費者在某些領域肯定有嘗試新事物、新的降低風險產品的興趣，以在其他領域開發這種口服尼古丁類別，可能消費者也不知道可以做什麼。所以這對我們來說，我們有責任來提出一些建議。但我想你可以期待我們，我認為我們證明了 PMI 以及現在在 PMI per Swedish Match 中以及在未來引領這一類別的創新。

And we'll take our next question from Matt Smith with Stifel.

我們將從 Stifel 的 Matt Smith 那裡回答下一個問題。

The incremental number of IQOS users stepped up in the first quarter to about 900 million additional users on a sequential basis. Can you provide more details regarding the favorable conversion trends you've seen behind ILUMA? And should we expect IQOS user growth to accelerate in the second half as ILUMA capacity improves and you expand the geographical footprint of the product?

第一季度，IQOS 用戶的增量增加至約 9 億用戶。您能否提供有關您在 ILUMA 背後看到的有利轉化趨勢的更多詳細信息？隨著 ILUMA 產能的提高和您擴大產品的地理足跡，我們是否應該期望 IQOS 用戶在下半年加速增長？

Thank you. So yes, we are close to 1 million additional IQOS user in Q1. It's a nice number. It's not something that we cannot beat. I think that there is opportunity to further accelerate as we continue in Q2 and beyond. But first of all, I would like to have a few words of cautiousness. It's not a scientific number. That's an estimate, and that can have some variation depending on the number of elements. But I think, directionally, it is correct, and I think it shows the very strong momentum of IQOS. It is confirmed, of course, by the consumer offtake that we've been describing.

謝謝。所以是的，我們在第一季度增加了近 100 萬 IQOS 用戶。這是一個不錯的數字。這不是我們無法擊敗的東西。我認為隨著我們在第二季度及以後的繼續，有機會進一步加速。但首先，我想說幾句謹慎的話。這不是一個科學數字。這是一個估計值，根據元素的數量可能會有一些變化。但是我覺得，從方向上來說，是正確的，我覺得它體現了IQOS非常強勁的勢頭。當然，我們一直在描述的消費者購買證實了這一點。

It is clear that ILUMA is helping this conversion. So what we see with ILUMA is a higher capacity to convince smokers because it is a more seamless experience. There is no cleaning. It is mimicking even closer the ritual of the combustible cigarettes. The overall experience is more satisfying. So the abandonment rate is lower. And of course, we talk about net user acquisition, so that is also helping. We have very nice progression of the consumer satisfaction in all countries.

很明顯，ILUMA 正在幫助實現這一轉變。因此，我們在 ILUMA 上看到的是更有能力說服吸煙者，因為它是一種更加無縫的體驗。沒有清潔。它正在模仿更接近可燃香煙的儀式。整體體驗比較滿意。所以放棄率比較低。當然，我們談論的是淨用戶獲取，所以這也有幫助。我們在所有國家/地區的消費者滿意度方面都有很好的進步。

That is, I guess, probably supporting the lower abandonment. So it is clear that the more we go for ILUMA, the more we are in the capacity to accelerate conversion. Japan, I think -- yes, I mean we're coming with a number in Japan and you can build the history. I think Japan is providing a lot of interesting information because it took some time. I mean the acceleration that we have since Q3 in Japan is quite spectacular, frankly, and probably goes beyond our expectation. But it shows that ILUMA is probably -- gradually getting traction with, I don't know, it's a word of mouth.

也就是說，我想，可能支持較低的放棄率。所以很明顯，我們對 ILUMA 的投入越多，我們加速轉化的能力就越大。日本，我想——是的，我的意思是我們在日本帶來了一個數字，你可以創造歷史。我認為日本提供了很多有趣的信息，因為這需要一些時間。我的意思是，坦率地說，自第三季度以來我們在日本的加速非常驚人，而且可能超出了我們的預期。但它表明 ILUMA 可能 - 逐漸受到關注，我不知道，這是口耳相傳。

And -- but the consumer is realizing that this is making a big impact. And frankly, the acceleration of the market share to north of 26%, and I'm not talking about Tokyo, but average Japanese market share is a significant acceleration. It started in Q4, but it accelerated, and it's 1 year after the launch. So it shows that not everything is happening in the first quarter of the launch. I think we're showing a number of chart here showing that. And that bodes well for a nice ramp up in the coming quarters as not only do we have to start to launch ILUMA in a number of countries, but we know that this positive effect will spread over the coming quarters. So we take that as a nice driver for user acquisition growth in the coming quarters.

而且 - 但消費者意識到這正在產生重大影響。坦率地說，市場份額加速到 26% 以上，我不是在談論東京，而是日本的平均市場份額是一個顯著的加速。它從第四季度開始，但它加速了，而且是在推出後 1 年。因此，這表明並非一切都發生在發布的第一季度。我想我們在這裡展示了一些圖表來展示這一點。這預示著未來幾個季度的良好增長，因為我們不僅必須開始在許多國家推出 ILUMA，而且我們知道這種積極影響將在未來幾個季度蔓延。因此，我們認為這是未來幾個季度用戶獲取增長的一個很好的推動力。

And a follow-up on a comment you mentioned on the call about maintaining profit growth in the U.S. as you launch IQOS. Can you talk about the investment needs in the U.S. to support commercialization? And how the $75 million or so of investment here in 2023 against this begins to build out the infrastructure necessary for a broader IQOS launch?

以及你在電話會議上提到的關於在推出 IQOS 時保持美國利潤增長的評論的後續行動。您能談談美國支持商業化的投資需求嗎？ 2023 年的 7500 萬美元左右的投資如何開始構建更廣泛的 IQOS 發布所需的基礎設施？

Yes. Well, that's the additional investment. But of course, we are already starting with some investment in the U.S. We'll come at the time of the Investor Day in September with detailed plan on how we intend to grow IQOS in the U.S. And at that time, of course, we share much more color on the level of investment that we believe is going to be necessary. I think the important message because we have a lot of questions here is the fact that, yes, of course, in order to express what we think is a great potential of IQOS in the U.S., investment will be needed.

是的。嗯，這是額外的投資。但是，當然，我們已經開始在美國進行一些投資。我們將在 9 月的投資者日到來，詳細計劃我們打算如何在美國發展 IQOS。當然，到那時，我們會分享我們認為有必要在投資水平上增加更多色彩。我認為重要的信息是，因為我們在這裡有很多問題，是的，當然，為了表達我們認為 IQOS 在美國的巨大潛力，需要投資。

By the way, we've been investing to build this phenomenal business for IQOS in Japan and Europe. I mean we've been investing. It didn't come by chance. So we will invest in the U.S. But what we are seeing is that, given the growth momentum that we have in the business, we think that investing in the U.S. behind IQOS will, first of all, provide even more momentum on the top line and that we can absorb this investment while continuing to grow the bottom line very nicely.

順便說一下，我們一直在投資在日本和歐洲為 IQOS 打造這項非凡的業務。我的意思是我們一直在投資。這不是偶然的。所以我們將投資美國但我們看到的是，鑑於我們在業務中的增長勢頭，我們認為在美國投資 IQOS 將首先在頂線和我們可以吸收這筆投資，同時繼續很好地增加利潤。

We're not ready to compromise on bottom line growth because of investment that we need to make in the U.S. If I want to repeat something that I said already, I think the question mark will be, what is the differential that we can generate between top line growth and bottom line growth? Remember, the last algorithm was 5% and 9%, above 5%, above 9%. Well, if we increase more than 5% the gross rate perspective, it doesn't mean that we're going to keep a 4 points of difference between top line growth and bottom line growth. That's the sense of the comments. I hope it's helpful.

由於我們需要在美國進行投資，我們不准備在底線增長上妥協。如果我想重複我已經說過的話，我認為問號將是，我們可以在兩者之間產生什麼差異頂線增長和底線增長？記住，上一個算法是5%和9%，5%以上，9%以上。好吧，如果我們將毛利率提高 5% 以上，並不意味著我們將在頂線增長和底線增長之間保持 4 個百分點的差異。這就是評論的意義。希望對您有所幫助。

And we'll take our next question from Jared Dinges with JPMorgan.

我們將接受 JPMorgan 的 Jared Dinges 的下一個問題。

I want to ask about ZYN growth in the U.S., which seemed to actually accelerate in the offtake data, despite the base continuing to grow, and it's actually pretty sizable now. Do you think there's any benefit there from the investments that you started to make as part of your IQOS preparation in terms of building out maybe a sales network? Are you also increasing SG&A investments in ZYN alone? I'm just thinking of this in the context of the brand is getting bigger, we're seeing the cigarette data has clearly been very weak, but yet the trend continues to do very well. So just trying to understand what's really driving that?

我想問一下 ZYN 在美國的增長，儘管基數繼續增長，但在承購數據中似乎實際上加速了，而且現在實際上相當可觀。您認為作為 IQOS 準備工作的一部分，您在建立銷售網絡方面開始進行的投資有什麼好處嗎？你們是否也在單獨增加對 ZYN 的 SG&A 投資？我只是在品牌越來越大的背景下考慮這一點，我們看到捲菸數據顯然非常疲軟，但趨勢繼續表現良好。所以只是想了解真正推動它的是什麼？

Thanks, Jared, for the question. Well, first of all, yes, we are, of course, extremely pleased with the performance of ZYN in the U.S. And I want to pay a tribute to the work that the team is doing there, which is absolutely fantastic. No, I don't think that there is yet a sizable impact coming from our investment in the U.S. I think it's being developed on the merit of the great commercial plan and action. The brand has amazing traction. I think that it's extremely highly regarded by the consumer premium brand, a very nice franchise.

賈里德，謝謝你提出這個問題。好吧，首先，是的，我們當然對 ZYN 在美國的表現非常滿意，我想對團隊在那裡所做的工作表示敬意，這絕對是太棒了。不，我認為我們在美國的投資還沒有產生相當大的影響。我認為它是根據偉大的商業計劃和行動的優點而發展起來的。該品牌具有驚人的吸引力。我認為它受到消費者優質品牌的高度評價，這是一個非常好的特許經營權。

And they are building on these 2 drivers, as explained, 1 geography. The other one is consumption per store. We just show that two things. One, of course, we have enriched the full geographical coverage. And that's where probably in the coming quarters, you will see some acceleration as we're going to put more feet in the street and more capacity to visit retail stores. And the other thing is that there is a growing knowledge, understanding and appetite for the category and for ZYN that epitomize the category, and that's what we are seeing.

正如所解釋的那樣，他們正在建立這兩個驅動因素，即 1 個地理位置。另一個是每家商店的消費。我們只是展示了兩件事。第一，當然，我們豐富了完整的地理覆蓋範圍。這可能是在接下來的幾個季度裡，你會看到一些加速，因為我們將在街上放更多的腳，並增加訪問零售店的能力。另一件事是，人們對該類別和 ZYN 的了解、理解和興趣不斷增長，這是該類別的縮影，這就是我們所看到的。

So, so far, no really increased investment behind the natural increase when you have such a nice growth, of course, increase investment year-on-year. So we do increase investment in the U.S., but nothing kind of at the stage accelerated plan and not yet impact coming from investment on IQOS that should come in the future.

所以，到目前為止，沒有真正增加投資背後的自然增長，當你有這麼好的增長時，當然是同比增加投資。所以我們確實增加了在美國的投資，但目前還沒有任何加速計劃，而且還沒有對未來應該出現的 IQOS 投資產生影響。

And we'll take our final question from Priya Ohri-Gupta with Barclays.

我們將接受巴克萊銀行的 Priya Ohri-Gupta 的最後一個問題。

Emmanuel, I was hoping that we could touch on your cash flow performance in the quarter a little bit. It sounds like the weakness was somewhat related to timing factors because 1Q is seasonally your weakest. But if you could just walk us through sort of what the drivers for that negative cash flow from operations figure were that would be helpful?

伊曼紐爾，我希望我們能稍微談談你在本季度的現金流表現。聽起來疲軟與時間因素有些相關，因為 1Q 是季節性最弱的。但是，如果您能帶我們了解一下導致運營數據出現負現金流的驅動因素是什麼，那會有幫助嗎？

Yes, absolutely. So indeed, Q1 has not been great in terms of cash flow performance. But that was, again, expected. That is linked with the timing of shipments, excise duty payment and some of the working capital. And there was nothing surprising. I mean, I would prefer to see higher operating cash generation in Q1, but that was expected. And we are absolutely confirming the objective for the year of an operating cash flow between $10 billion to $11 billion.

是的，一點沒錯。所以確實，第一季度在現金流表現方面並不是很好。但這又是意料之中的。這與發貨時間、消費稅支付和部分營運資金有關。並沒有什麼令人驚訝的。我的意思是，我更希望在第一季度看到更高的運營現金產生，但這是意料之中的。我們絕對確定今年的運營現金流量目標在 100 億至 110 億美元之間。

Okay. And then just a housekeeping item. Can you give us the pro forma leverage, including the benefit of Swedish Match, for a full year versus the reported numbers that were in the release?

好的。然後只是一個家政用品。你能給我們提供一整年的備考槓桿，包括 Swedish Match 的收益與發布中報告的數字嗎？

No, I don't think it was in the release. I don't know whether we'll communicate that. But I mean, you can come to it. I'm not sure to understand fully what your question was. I think you have the data to calculate things, but you can come back to us and we'll see whether we can show where the information is available.

不，我認為它不在發行版中。我不知道我們是否會就此進行溝通。但我的意思是，你可以接受它。我不確定完全理解你的問題是什麼。我想你有數據可以計算東西，但你可以回來找我們，我們會看看我們是否可以顯示信息可用的地方。

Sure. I think that the sequential increase in leverage, if you put in a full year's benefit of Swedish Match, just closer to about 0.2 of a turn versus a very higher figure that was reported directionally, right?

當然。我認為槓桿率的連續增加，如果你把瑞典火柴的全年收益計算在內，只接近 0.2 倍左右，而定向報告的數字非常高，對吧？

No, I think you're alluding to the fact that we concluded 2022 saying, well, we are around 2.9x, but of course, that would be lower and significantly lower. And maybe about what you are seeing here, if you were to take the full year of Swedish Match.

不，我認為你是在暗示我們在 2022 年結束時說，好吧，我們大約是 2.9 倍，但當然，這個數字會更低，而且會低得多。如果你要參加全年的瑞典火柴，也許你在這裡看到的是什麼。

And there are no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call back over to the management team for any closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我會將電話轉回給管理團隊，聽取任何結束語。

Thank you all for joining today. That concludes our call. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact the Investor Relations team. Thank you again, and have a great day.

感謝大家今天的加入。我們的通話到此結束。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯繫投資者關係團隊。再次感謝你，祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you all. Talk to you soon. Thank you. Bye-bye.

謝謝你們。以後再聊。謝謝。再見。

Thank you. And this does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

謝謝。今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連接。