該公司發布了其 2024 年第四季度和全年業績的詳細信息,強調所有業務要素的強勁增長,尤其是無菸業務。儘管面臨挑戰,該公司仍然對未來維持成長和回報的能力充滿信心。他們致力於促進減少菸草危害和推動無菸產品。
該公司實現了創紀錄的經營現金流和改善的槓桿率,重點是減少債務和改善現金流。他們對自己的全球無菸策略充滿信心,並正著力打造自己的品牌IQOS、ZYN和VEEV。該公司已為持續成長和成功做好了準備,並制定了提高利潤率、制定定價策略和在無菸產品市場成長的計劃。
他們也正在應對理解和滿足需求、市場可見性和市場潛在改進方面的挑戰。該公司對電子煙市場的成長和監管持樂觀態度,並預測到 2025-2026 年電子煙市場將實現正常化和適當的監管。他們專注於 2025 年在美國實現有機成長,並計劃未來擴展到新的地區。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good day, and thank you for standing by.
您好,感謝您的支持。
Welcome to the Philip Morris International fourth quarter 2024 and full-year results conference call.
歡迎參加菲利普莫里斯國際 2024 年第四季和全年業績電話會議。
At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.
此時,所有參與者都處於只聽模式。
After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session to ask a question.
演講者演講結束後,將有問答環節來提問。
(Operator instructions)
(操作員指令)
Again, please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
再次請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。
I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, James Bushnell, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communications.
現在,我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係和財務傳播副總裁詹姆斯·布希內爾 (James Bushnell)。
Please go ahead.
請繼續。
James Bushnell - IR Contact Officer
James Bushnell - IR Contact Officer
Welcome.
歡迎。
Thank you for joining us.
感謝您加入我們。
Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2024 Q4 and full-year results.
今天早些時候,我們發布了一份新聞稿,其中包含有關我們 2024 年第四季和全年業績的詳細資訊。
The press release is available on our website at pmi.com. A glossary of terms, including the definition for smoke-free products, as well as adjustments to the most comparable US GAAP measures for non-GAAP financial measures provided in this presentation are available in Exhibit 99.2 for the company's Form 8-K dated February 6, 2025, and on our Investor Relations website.
新聞稿可在我們的網站 pmi.com 上查閱。本簡報中提供的術語表(包括無菸產品的定義)以及對非 GAAP 財務指標的最可比較美國 GAAP 指標的調整可在公司 2025 年 2 月 6 日的 8-K 表附件 99.2 中找到,也可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。
Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results.
今天的言論包含前瞻性的陳述和對未來結果的預測。
I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press room for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements.
我請您注意今天的演示和新聞發布室中披露的前瞻性和警告性聲明,以了解可能導致實際結果與預測或前瞻性聲明之間存在重大差異的各種因素。
I'm joined today by Jacek Olczak, Chief Executive Officer; and Emmanuel Babeau, Chief Financial Officer.
今天與我一起參加的是執行長 Jacek Olczak;以及財務長 Emmanuel Babeau。
Over to you, Jacek.
交給你了,雅切克。
Jacek Olczak - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jacek Olczak - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, James, and welcome, everyone.
謝謝你,詹姆斯,歡迎大家。
We delivered an outstanding performance in 2024.
我們在 2024 年取得了出色的成績。
We have all the elements of the business contributing strongly to deliver best-in-class organic top and bottom line growth.
我們的所有業務要素都為實現一流的有機頂線和底線成長做出了巨大貢獻。
There is a resulted in significant acceleration in adjusted diluted earnings per share growth involve currency-neutral.
這導致調整後每股稀釋收益成長顯著加速,且不考慮貨幣因素。
And equally importantly, dollar terms, as we mitigated substantial currency headwinds.
同樣重要的是,以美元計算,我們減輕了巨大的貨幣逆風。
Our business outperformed the industrial and consumer packaged goods overall would grow across the world growth across all categories to deliver our fourth consecutive year of positive volumes.
我們的業務表現優於工業和消費包裝商品,全球所有類別均實現成長,連續第四年實現正成長。
High-cost continued its strong underlying momentum with continued excellent growth in Japan, robust progress in Europe despite the EU characterizing flavor ban and further strong growth in our global markets.
高成本持續保持強勁的潛在勢頭,日本市場繼續保持優異的成長勢頭,歐洲市場儘管歐盟對調味品實施禁令,但仍取得強勁增長,全球市場進一步強勁增長。
Importantly, the growth of IQOS is increasingly profitable as the benefits of scale and pricing more than offset continued substantial growth investments.
重要的是,IQOS 的成長越來越有利可圖,因為規模和定價的好處足以抵消持續大量成長的投資。
Including brand building activities and innovations on devices and consumables.
包括品牌建立活動以及設備和消耗品的創新。
Then once again delivered strong growth in the US as 2020 freight demand acceleration continued in 2024.
隨著 2020 年貨運需求加速成長至 2024 年,美國再次實現強勁成長。
This resulted in short-term supply challenges, which will have progressively addressed throughout the year working towards our goal of matching existing user demand.
這導致了短期供應挑戰,我們將在全年逐步解決這項挑戰,並努力實現滿足現有用戶需求的目標。
As we unlock further capacity, we will be in a position to exploit the full potential of this dynamic category.
隨著我們釋放更多產能,我們將能夠充分利用這個動態類別的潛力。
Outside the US, shipments grew by 75% as we increased our global presence in nicotine pouches to 37 markets.
在美國以外的地區,隨著我們尼古丁袋全球影響力擴大到 37 個市場,出貨量增加了 75%。
In e-vapor, VEEV is progressively contributing to growth with encouraging volume momentum in close pulse and strengthening market position with a premium offer.
在電子煙領域,VEEV 正透過密切關注銷售動能以及透過優質產品鞏固市場地位,逐步促進成長。
Our combustible business performed well on all metrics.
我們的可燃物業務在各項指標上均表現良好。
We delivered double digit gross profit growth in Q4 of last year and around 7% organically for the year.
我們去年第四季的毛利實現了兩位數成長,全年有機成長率約為 7%。
Led by strong pricing, resilience, volumes in certain markets and ongoing benefits of our cost actions.
在強勁定價、彈性、特定市場銷售、成本行動持續帶來效益的帶動下。
Overall, our strong performance across all categories and regions drove meaningful operating leverage, notably in our smoke-free business, alongside cost definition efficiency initiatives across the entire value chain.
整體而言,我們在所有類別和地區的強勁表現推動了有意義的經營槓桿,特別是在我們的無菸業務中,同時也推動了整個價值鏈的成本定義效率措施。
This enabled us to deliver over deliver operating cash flow and adjusted diluted EPS above our expectations at the start of the year despite ongoing currency and input cost headwinds.
儘管面臨持續的貨幣和投入成本阻力,這使我們能夠在年初實現超額的經營現金流和超出預期的調整後攤薄每股收益。
Our transformation journey and growth drivers have excellent momentum, and we are confident in our ability to deliver sustainable growth and returns in 2025 and beyond.
我們的轉型歷程和成長動力勢頭良好,我們有信心在2025年及以後實現可持續的成長和回報。
Over the past year, we achieved several key milestones in our smoke-free journey included the 10-year anniversary of IQOS and VEEV.
在過去的一年裡,我們在無菸之旅中實現了幾個重要的里程碑,包括IQOS和VEEV誕生10週年。
Our smoke-free business is large, profitable, and growing class.
我們的無菸業務規模龐大,利潤豐厚,並且不斷發展。
Our total smoke-free net revenues to reach almost $15 billion in 2024, combined to have a strong combustible performance, our company also surpassed $10 billion in adjusted net earnings for that first state.
我們的無菸淨收入總額將在 2024 年達到近 150 億美元,結合強勁的可燃性表現,我們公司在第一個州的調整後淨收益也將超過 100 億美元。
Smoke-free business reach 40% of total PMI net revenues in the fourth quarter.
無菸業務在第四季佔菲莫國際總淨收入的40%。
And around 42% of adjusted gross profit as our transformation becomes increasingly profitable.
隨著我們的轉型變得越來越有利可圖,調整後的毛利達到約42%。
In our top five markets by operating income, around 60% of net revenues were a smoke-free.
在我們按營業收入排名的前五名市場中,約 60% 的淨收入來自無菸產品。
We have deployed our smoke-free multi-category strategy across almost half of the 95 markets with smoke-free products.
我們在95個無菸產品市場中近一半都部署了無菸多品類策略。
And we closed the year was over 38.5 million estimated adult users across heat-not-burn, oral and e-vapor.
截止到今年,我們估計加熱不燃燒型、口服型和電子蒸汽型菸草產品的成年用戶超過 3,850 萬人。
Our smoke-free business surpassed 1 billion tons, including 600 for the GBP40 million of nicotine pouches.
我們的無菸業務超過 10 億噸,其中包括 600 億英鎊的尼古丁袋。
The VEEV brand continues to resonate with adult new coating consumers across the US where it is the number one smoke-free brand.
VEEV 品牌繼續受到美國成年新塗料消費者的共鳴,它是美國第一的無菸品牌。
And the four biggest new cup and brand and also grows International.
而四大新杯品牌也日益國際化。
We're also very pleased that the robust science and responsible marketing practices behind ZYN were recognized by FDA for the recent marketing authorization of all currently commercialized US volumes making ZYN the photos and the only authorized nickel and powerful brand in the United States.
我們也非常高興,ZYN 背後強大的科學依據和負責任的營銷實踐得到了 FDA 的認可,最近獲得了所有目前在美國商業化銷售的藥物的營銷授權,這使得 ZYN 成為美國唯一授權的鎳和強大品牌。
Will remain at the forefront of the effort to increase understanding of smoke-free products and advanced tobacco harm reduction among consumers and regulators.
將繼續站在努力的最前線,提高消費者和監管機構對無菸產品和先進的菸草減害技術的了解。
We are encouraged by the increasing number of governments adopting tobacco harm reduction policies for incentivized switching to reduced nicotine product instead of continuing to smoke.
我們很高興看到,越來越多的政府採取菸草減害政策,鼓勵人們轉向低尼古丁產品而不是繼續吸菸。
Which is a sound public health policy.
這是一項完善的公共衛生政策。
A number of markets also moving favorably with regards to the robust regulation of nicotine pouches and the vapor.
許多市場在對尼古丁袋和蒸氣進行嚴格監管方面也取得了積極的進展。
Now, regretfully, there is also resistance in many places, often driven by ideology, not fight, and science and data for a considerable amount of work.
現在,遺憾的是,許多地方也存在著阻力,這種阻力往往是出於意識形態,而不是鬥爭,而且需要大量工作的科學和數據。
It's still in front of us, while reaching important milestones is pleasing after 10 years, we are still in the early stages of industrial transformation.
它仍然擺在我們面前,雖然 10 年後達到重要的里程碑令人高興,但我們仍處於產業轉型的早期階段。
With our strong brands and our innovative and commercial capabilities we have many years of opportunities and growth ahead.
憑藉我們強大的品牌和創新及商業能力,我們未來擁有多年的機會和成長。
I look forward to sharing more with you at the upcoming CAGNY conference on February 19.
我期待在 2 月 19 日即將舉行的 CAGNY 會議上與大家分享更多內容。
I will now hand over to Amanda well to discuss our results and outlook in more detail.
現在我將交給阿曼達來更詳細地討論我們的結果和展望。
Emmanuel Babeau - Chief Financial Officer
Emmanuel Babeau - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Jacek.
謝謝你,雅切克。
I will start with the headline financials for the year.
我首先要介紹今年的主要財務數據。
As you said, this was a truly outstanding year of growth across our business as the rapid progress complex emerging growth contribution from VEEV and ZYN internationally and much improved combustible performance.
正如您所說,這是我們業務真正出色的成長之年,因為 VEEV 和 ZYN 在國際上的快速發展複合型新興成長貢獻以及可燃性效能的大幅提升。
We delivered line or above our last communicated expectation of across key metrics.
我們在關鍵指標方面的表現達到或超越了我們上次溝通的預期。
Organic net revenue growth of plus 9.8%, adjusted IMS and shipments of HDUs, and convertible pricing of plus 8.7% were strong.
有機淨收入成長 9.8%,調整後的 IMS 和 HDU 出貨量以及可轉換定價均成長 8.7%,表現強勁。
Excellent total shipment volume growth of plus 2.9%, including ZYN and convertible volumes perform at the top end of our expectation, coupled with accelerated cost efficiencies.
總出貨量成長 2.9%,其中 ZYN 和可轉換出貨量達到我們預期的最高水準,同時成本效率也得到加快。
This led to better-than-expected plus 14.9% organic operating income growth and plus 15.6% currency-neutral adjusted diluted earnings per share growth.
這導致有機營業收入成長14.9%以及經貨幣中性調整後的每股攤薄收益成長15.6%,超出預期。
Our clear focus on delivering performance in dollar terms was reflected in the plus 9.3% growth in adjusted diluted EPS.
我們明確注重以美元計算的業績,這反映在調整後攤薄每股收益 9.3% 的增幅上。
As a result, we achieved record operating cash flow of $12.2 billion, which was significantly above both our initial and most recent forecast, supported by excellent profit delivery and favorable working capital.
結果,在出色的利潤交付和有利的營運資本的支持下,我們實現了創紀錄的 122 億美元的營運現金流,大大高於我們最初和最近的預測。
Combined with strong adjusted EBITDA, this allowed us to significantly improve our leverage ratio, which I'll come back to later.
加上強勁的調整後 EBITDA,這使我們能夠顯著改善槓桿率,稍後我會談到這一點。
With the year strongly in Q4, with organic net revenue growth of plus 7.3% despite the impact of timing and comparison effect.
今年第四季表現強勁,儘管受到時間和比較效應的影響,有機淨收入仍成長 7.3%。
Most notably related to nicotine disruption, you characterizing flavor ban for HTU.s and prelaunch [Illumina-I] device achievements.
最顯著相關的是與尼古丁破壞相關的,你描述了 HTU 的風味禁令和預發布 [Illumina-I] 設備的成就。
This was driven by total volume growth of plus 2.3% alongside positive smoke-free mix and robust pricing.
這是由於總銷量成長 2.3% 以及無菸產品組合積極以及價格強勁所致。
Combined with operating leverage and manufacturing efficiencies, we delivered close to plus 12% organic operating income growth and plus 10% currency neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth.
結合經營槓桿和製造效率,我們實現了接近 12% 的有機經營收入成長和 10% 的貨幣中性調整後稀釋每股盈餘成長。
In dollar terms, adjusted operating income increased plus 15% and adjusted diluted earnings per share grew plus 14% to $1.55.
以美元計算,調整後的營業收入成長了 15%,調整後的每股稀釋收益成長了 14%,達到 1.55 美元。
This to the positive currency impact of $0.06, which reflects an unfavorable transactional impact in the prior year in Argentina as well as the move to hyperinflationary accounting in Egypt, which also had a negative impact on our organic growth of around 1 point on net revenues and 2 points on operating income.
這產生了 0.06 美元的正貨幣影響,反映了阿根廷上一年的不利交易影響以及埃及轉向惡性通貨膨脹會計,這也對我們的有機增長產生了負面影響,淨收入下降約 1 個百分點,營業收入下降約 2 個百分點。
The non-cash impairment of our RBH equity investment had no impact on our adjusted financials.
我們對 RBH 股權投資的非現金減損對我們的調整後財務狀況沒有影響。
In future, we may benefit from average dividend income that we do not include any impact in our 2025 forecast at this time.
未來,我們可能會受益於平均股息收入,但目前我們尚未將任何影響納入 2025 年的預測中。
Let's take a step back and consider 2024 in the context of the last few years.
讓我們回顧一下,並結合過去幾年的背景來思考 2024 年。
Our organic top-line delivery has been consistently strong since the pandemic and further accelerated this year as both smoke-free product and combustible stepped up their trajectory.
自疫情爆發以來,我們的有機營收表現一直保持強勁,今年隨著無菸產品和可燃產品的成長軌跡加快,營收表現進一步加速。
Clearly, 2024 was also standout year for adjusted diluted EPS growth.
顯然,2024 年也是調整後攤薄每股收益成長突出的一年。
The profitability of our smoke-free business accelerated due to the operating leverage of ECUs, increasing scale, favorable unit economics, pricing efficiency and the impressive accretion from these rapid growth at superior US margins.
由於 ECU 的經營槓桿、規模的擴大、良好的單位經濟效益、定價效率以及美國較高利潤率的快速增長帶來的令人印象深刻的增長,我們無菸業務的盈利能力加速提升。
We also benefited from from robust combustible performed once which provides important structural support for our transformation journey.
我們也受益於曾經表現出來的強勁的可燃性,它為我們的轉型之旅提供了重要的結構支撐。
These dynamics are further demonstrated by the organic top line and gross profit growth of both category in the year, our smoke-free business accelerated to plus 17% net revenue growth and plus 23% gross profit growth, reaching close to $10 billion in gross profit.
這些動態進一步體現在全年兩個類別的有機營業收入和毛利成長上,我們的無菸業務淨收入成長 17%,毛利成長 23%,毛利接近 100 億美元。
This drove an impressive plus 330 basis points of organic growth margin expansion, fueled by the factors I just mentioned.
這推動了令人印象深刻的有機成長利潤率擴大了 330 個基點,而推動力就是我剛才提到的因素。
On the convertible side, net revenue and gross profit grew organically by plus 6% and plus 7%, respectively, leading to plus 60 basis points of organic gross margin expansion.
在可轉換方面,淨收入和毛利分別有機成長 6% 和 7%,從而帶來有機毛利率擴大 60 個基點。
Our combustible business is once again contributing positively with pricing and efficiency more than compensating for the third year of significant input cost headwinds, which we expect to ease in 2025.
我們的可燃物業務再次透過定價和效率做出積極貢獻,足以彌補第三年巨大的投入成本阻力,我們預計這種阻力將在 2025 年得到緩解。
I also note that adjusted gross margin for smoke-free product were plus 490 basis points higher than combustible in Q4 and plus 270 basis points higher for the year overall at 66.6%.
我還注意到,第四季無菸產品的調整後毛利率比可燃產品高出 490 個基點,全年整體調整後毛利率高出 270 個基點,達到 66.6%。
While we continue to target gross margin expansion in combustible, we expect this gap to grow over time as we continue to drive profitable growth from smoke-free product while investing in new market brand-building and innovation.
雖然我們繼續致力於可燃產品的毛利率擴張,但隨著我們繼續推動無菸產品的獲利成長,同時投資於新市場品牌建立和創新,我們預計這一差距將隨著時間的推移而擴大。
Taking a closer look now at our volume performance, we delivered our fourth consecutive year of shipment growth of plus 2.3% in the fourth quarter.
仔細檢視我們的銷售表現,我們第四季的出貨量連續第四年成長 2.3%。
And close to plus 3% for the full year.
全年成長率接近 3%。
Including our this is a business in equivalent unit.
包括我們這個是等單位的業務。
Growth was plus 2.4% and plus 3%, respectively.
成長率分別為2.4%和3%。
Our total 2024 volume growth, including VEEV, was plus 13.5% on 19 billion unit equivalent, an acceleration compared to 2023.
包括 VEEV 在內的我們 2024 年總銷售成長率為 13.5%,達到 190 億單位當量,與 2023 年相比有所加速。
For IQOS, we delivered HTU. adjusted in markets and growth of close to 13% and shipment volumes of $139.7 billion, both broadly in line with our expectation.
對於 IQOS,我們交付了 HTU。經過市場調整,成長率接近 13%,出貨量達到 1,397 億美元,均與我們的預期基本一致。
Adjusted, IMS omitted growth accelerated in H2 close to 14%, essentially in line with our target of plus 14 to plus 15%.
經調整後,IMS 扣除項目成長率在下半年加速至接近 14%,基本上符合我們設定的 14% 至 15% 的成長目標。
This includes dynamic growth of close to plus 11% in Europe, with strong momentum across the large majority of markets.
其中歐洲地區實現了近 11% 的動態成長,絕大多數市場都呈現強勁勢頭。
As I touched on earlier, Q4 HTU shipment growth into the impact of additional shipments in the prior year to prepare for the EU characterizing flavor ban.
正如我之前提到的,第四季度的 HTU 出貨量成長受到了上一年增加出貨量的影響,以應對歐盟的風味禁令。
And the phasing effect of additional shipment to Japan in H1, notably due to retain disruption.
以及上半年對日本額外出貨量的階段性影響,特別是因為保留中斷。
Our oral smoke-free business grew 2024 shipment volume by plus 24.6%, including zero US growth of plus 51% to 581 million cans.
我們的口服無菸業務 2024 年出貨量成長了 24.6%,其中美國成長了 51%,達到 5.81 億罐。
Snus and moist snuff volumes were stable.
鼻煙和濕鼻煙的銷售量保持穩定。
Cigarette shipments grew by plus 0.6%, approximately in line with the estimated growth of the international industry.
捲菸出貨量成長了0.6%,與國際產業的預期成長大致一致。
The growth of the cigarette market can be largely attributed to growth in markets where smoke-free product are not permitted, such as Turkey, Brazil, and India.
香菸市場的成長很大程度上可以歸因於土耳其、巴西和印度等不允許無菸產品的市場的成長。
Excluding such markets, we observe a low single digit decline, consistent with historic trends.
除去這些市場,我們觀察到一個較低的個位數下降,與歷史趨勢一致。
Our strong full-year top-line growth of almost plus 10% was again achieved through a combination of and the mix impact of the shift to smoke-free product pricing contributed plus 6.2%, reflecting almost plus 9% convertible notes pricing and plus 2% for smoke-free product.
我們全年營收強勁增長近 10%,這再次得益於多種因素的結合以及無菸產品定價轉變帶來的混合影響,貢獻了 6.2% 的增長,其中反映了可轉換票據定價近 9% 的增長和無菸產品定價增長 2% 的增長。
Smoke-free also drove a positive mix impact of plus 1.9% with the higher net revenue per unit of both cycles.
無菸產品也帶來了 1.9% 的正面組合效應,兩個週期的單位淨收入均有所提高。
If you do, overall smoke-free product contributed plus 2.2% to overall group top-line growth of the year, demonstrating ZYN as a meaningful, accelerate the lower performance.
如果這樣做的話,整體無菸產品將為整個集團全年的營收成長貢獻 2.2%,顯示 ZYN 具有重大意義,可以加速較低的績效。
As in prior years, your vertical was negative primarily due vertical was negative primarily due given Moving down to adjusted operating margin we delivered full-year audience expansion of plus 180 basis points and plus 100 basis points in dollar terms, comfortably achieving our objective of extension on both ways.
與前幾年一樣,您的垂直增長為負,主要由於垂直增長為負,主要由於調整後的營業利潤率下降,我們實現了全年觀眾擴大 180 個基點,美元擴大 100 個基點,輕鬆實現了雙向擴展的目標。
This reflects strong Q4 with why margin expanding our Ginnie Mae placebo and 40 basis points as gross margin expansion output.
這反映了第四季度的強勁表現,以及為什麼利潤率擴大了我們的 Ginnie Mae 安慰劑和 40 個基點作為毛利率擴張產出。
SG&A full-year gross margin increase again grew by plus 100 basis points and plus 120 basis points in the long term.
SG&A 全年毛利率增幅再次成長了 100 個基點,長期成長了 120 個基點。
SG&A go plus 20 basis points of margin expansion enabled by cost efficiency action.
透過成本效率行動,銷售、一般及行政開支增加,利潤率增加 20 個基點。
Despite significant reinvestment and financial support (inaudible) was moved to the net and US capabilities, especially in H2.
儘管進行了大量再投資和財政支持(聽不清楚),但還是轉移到了網路和美國的能力上,尤其是在 H2。
We delivered over $750 million in gross cost efficiency for the year. (inaudible) and combustible and continued better saving.
我們全年實現了超過 7.5 億美元的總成本效率。 (聽不清楚)且易燃,並能持續更好地節約。
This places us well on track for our '24 to '26 target of $1 billion.
這使我們有望實現 2024 年至 2026 年 10 億美元的目標。
Focusing on our smoke-free business.
專注於我們的無菸業務。
We grew our estimated user base by over 5 million people in 2024.
我們預計 2024 年用戶群將增加 500 多萬人。
Reached approximately 38.6 million legal age users as of December this '24.
截至今年 12 月,法定年齡用戶數已達約 3,860 萬人。
This includes an estimated 32.2 million active users, 5.7 million all users and 1 million VEEV users.
其中包括估計 3,220 萬活躍用戶、570 萬所有用戶和 100 萬 VEEV 用戶。
I am pleased to report robust IQOS growth of 3.4 million versus prior year and plus 1.5 million during H2.
我很高興地報告,IQOS 銷售與去年同期相比強勁增長了 340 萬,下半年又成長了 150 萬。
This growth is broad-based and consistent with recent years, despite limited new market opening and characterizing the bank.
儘管新市場開拓有限且存在銀行特徵,但這種成長基礎廣泛且與近年來的成長一致。
Overall added 1.5 million user a year on year, driven by continued strong traction with legal entities in the US despite supply constraints.
儘管供應有限,美國法人實體仍持續保持強勁成長勢頭,推動其整體用戶數年增 150 萬。
Zooming in now on IQOS, phone user momentum is reflected in adjusted IMS volume was principally the four walls of over 15 billion units in line with the prior year despite the impact of the new level.
現在放大 IQOS,手機用戶的勢頭反映在調整後的 IMS 容量中,儘管受到新水平的影響,但主要還是超過 150 億台的四面牆,與去年持平。
This growth also in line with the five-year average and more than 1 billion unit ago when excluding contributions from market launch in the tail end of fiscal year.
如果不包括財年末市場投放的貢獻,這一增長也與五年平均值一致,並且比去年同期增長了 10 億單位以上。
Importantly, following the rollout of cycle IQOS and with increasing scale of the business, the profitability of IQOS is growing.
重要的是,隨著循環IQOS的推出以及業務規模的擴大,IQOS的獲利能力也在成長。
Strongly despite this year with the index for the contribution of the time at constant rates.
儘管今年該指數的貢獻率與當時的不變利率相差無幾。
As we've explained before, the context of the business to consumer version results in planning participants per user over time as the use of loan growth in the market.
正如我們之前所解釋的那樣,企業對消費者版本的背景是隨著市場中貸款的增長,隨著時間的推移規劃每個用戶的參與者。
This is a dynamic we expect to continue in the future.
我們預計這種態勢在未來還會持續下去。
Turning to IQOS in Europe.
轉向歐洲的IQOS。
As expected, H3 adjusted IMS growth accelerated from the H2 almost 11% following H2 progression of around 8%.
如預期,H3 調整後的 IMS 成長率較 H2 加速近 11%,而 H2 的成長速度約為 8%。
This resulted in robust 19% was overall for the year despite the significant discipline of the characterizing the bank.
儘管該銀行的紀律性很強,但全年整體成長率仍達到 19%。
This double-digit adjusted payment goes in H3which was driven by strong progress in a large number of markets, including growth of around 20% or more in market which such as Bulgaria, Middle East, Germany, Romania, and Spain.
這一兩位數的調整後支出是在第三季度實現的,這得益於大量市場的強勁增長,其中保加利亞、中東、德國、羅馬尼亞和西班牙等市場的增長約為 20% 或更多。
While gross was less dynamic in Poland, Czech Republic, and Italy.
而波蘭、捷克共和國和義大利的銷量則沒那麼好。
Recovring (inaudible) is ongoing following the discipline of the ban, although at a slightly slower pace than expected in Q4.
根據禁令規定,恢復(聽不清楚)正在進行中,儘管速度比第四季的預期稍慢。
The continued momentum in the region, low Q4 adjusted share growth of plus 0.9% year-on-year to 10.6% with adjusted IMS volume, which is 13.5 billion units on a four-quarter moving average.
該地區繼續保持發展勢頭,第四季度調整後份額同比增長 0.9% 至 10.6%,調整後的 IMS 銷售量按四個季度移動平均值計算為 135 億個單位。
Q4 shipment volume increased by plus 6% against the prior year comparison, which included additional volumes related to the implementation of the flavor ban notably in Italy.
第四季的出貨量比去年同期增加了 6%,其中包括與義大利實施調味品禁令相關的額外出貨量。
The flavor a ban is now active in all the 16 market.
禁令中的口味目前已在全部 16 個市場上線。
These are generally consistent pattern of often disruption, followed by your return to the (inaudible) growth, particularly.
這些通常是經常中斷的一致模式,隨後您會恢復到(聽不清楚)成長,特別是。
Following an impact of around 2 billion units in 2024.
到 2024 年,影響規模將達到約 20 億台。
We expect that the consequences that impact of around EUR1 billion boots segment and IMS (inaudible) annualization effect is the most potent effect in the fourth quarter of 2025.
我們預計,約 10 億歐元的靴子部分和 IMS(聽不清楚)年化效應的影響將在 2025 年第四季產生最顯著的影響。
We also continue to roll out the Lima I designs and new consumable, Zions media and media more market for driving an increasing source of debt profile and Class one nickel.
我們也將繼續推出 Lima I 設計和新消耗品、Zions 媒體和媒體更多市場,以推動債務狀況和一級鎳的持續成長。
Looking at then our TCT of pictures in Europe, we reached a number of important milestones with Budapest, achieving over 40% share, grown over 30%.
回顧我們在歐洲的電影 TCT,我們與布達佩斯一起達到了許多重要的里程碑,實現了超過 40% 的份額,成長率超過 30%。
And London approaching 10% with Madrid not far behind.
倫敦接近 10%,馬德里緊隨其後。
Japan delivered outstanding results yet again is H3 registered a growth of close to plus 13% in both the quarter and the full year to reach an adjusted before share of 30.6% plus 3.1 points higher year on year.
日本再次取得了出色的成績,H3 本季度和全年均實現了近 13% 的增長,調整後份額達到 30.6%,比去年同期高出 3.1 個百分點。
This was supported by continued schedules of Terra and India as well as a positive reflection of the IQOS PMI device as we reach of the $9.5 million at the UK.
這得歸功於 Terra 和印度的持續計劃以及 IQOS PMI 設備的積極反映,因為我們在英國的銷售額達到了 950 萬美元。
Prospects here in Tokyo for the overall is not done that.
東京這裡的前景總體上還沒有做到這一點。
We've already reached 52.8% in December with the addition of his will yes, animate suite densities and site-specific just achieving the 50% there, especially.
去年 12 月我們已經達到了 52.8%,是的,加上他的意願,動畫套件密度和特定地點剛好達到了 50%,尤其是那裡。
On a national of that basis, 47% of the total industry is now Mukul.
以全國範圍來看,目前木材佔整個產業的 47%。
Outside of Europe and Japan, adjusted market growth continued to grow fully in before, permitting growth in a number of market is illustrated by (inaudible) shares in Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and Mexico.
除歐洲和日本外,調整後的市場成長持續全面成長,沙烏地阿拉伯、印尼和墨西哥的股票(聽不清楚)等多個市場均實現了成長。
Continuous innovation is a key driver of the growth is directly variants and capsule in Indonesia, rising and at least in the quarter.
持續創新是成長的關鍵驅動力,直接推動了印尼變體和膠囊的成長,並且至少在本季度呈上升趨勢。
And some good initial results from the sale of bond offering, I could continues to perform well.
而且從債券發行的銷售來看,一些初期業績表現良好,有望繼續表現良好。
Zero, though of the share performance was impacted by the dynamic of the combustible market competitors supply normalize and a very strong prior-year quarter following the launch of hyperkalemia.
儘管高血鉀症推出後,可燃市場競爭對手供應正常化的動態和去年同期非常強勁的業績對股價表現產生了影響,但其股價表現並未受到影響。
Our GT3 H3 of the increased nicely as we start (inaudible) the strength of our multi-category portfolio lifestyles of IQOS, VEEV, we gather.
隨著我們開始(聽不清楚)IQOS、VEEV 等多類別產品組合生活方式的實力增強,我們的 GT3 H3 成長良好。
Turning now to the US where our focus will be.
現在轉向美國,我們的重點將放在那裡。
The first campaign continues in is progressing well and we expect to come and directors of device and H3, you know, around the end of Q1.
第一個活動正在繼續進行,進展順利,我們預計將在第一季末與設備和 H3 主管會面。
We are seeing interest from consumers with over 4,000 added motor on our way.
我們看到消費者的興趣,我們即將增加 4,000 多台引擎。
As we learn from this initial consumer segment, we are planning the rollout of the other city.
根據我們從這個初始消費者群體中了解到的情況,我們正在計劃在其他城市推出該產品。
Has not been our focus will be on selective adult consumer engagement and building awareness to category and reputation in legal.
我們的重點一直不是選擇性成年消費者的參與以及建立對法律類別和聲譽的認識。
It's not happening we do not assume any significant value from net acres before the at the launch of hyper cinema, and we continue to oh four and a reauthorization image guidance is flat.
這不會發生,我們不假設超級影院推出前的淨英畝有任何顯著的價值,我們繼續哦四,重新授權的圖像指導是平的。
Switching categories now to ZYN, where we continued that weapons in some demand supported Q4, you achievement volume growth of plus 1% year on year to $165 million despite ongoing polygenic mutation.
現在切換到 ZYN 類別,我們繼續認為,一些需求支撐了第四季度的武器,儘管多基因突變持續存在,但銷量仍同比增長 1%,達到 1.65 億美元。
This reflects an acceleration to a near record sequential increase of plus $6 million, and that's it.
這反映了銷售額加速成長至接近創紀錄的 600 萬美元的連續增幅,僅此而已。
On a full-year basis, shipment volumes grew by plus $196 million in 2023, and this is consistent between highlighting both the magnitude of growth and the tremendous effort made to maximize our production capacity.
從全年來看,2023 年的出貨量成長了 1.96 億美元,這不僅凸顯了成長的幅度,也凸顯了我們為最大限度提高生產能力所做的巨大努力。
VEEV category share incrementally improve through the second as reaching 65.9% for as we progress in increasing quality and further supported the growth of the capital.
隨著我們在提高品質方面的進步,VEEV 類別份額逐年提高,達到 65.9%,進一步支持了資本的成長。
Indeed, category growth slowed significantly during the solidity of our supply constraint as shown on this stuff.
事實上,正如本文所顯示的,在我們的供應限制堅固期間,類別成長顯著放緩。
As the situation started gradually improve, ZYN was again leading and outpacing the typical.
隨著情況開始逐漸好轉,ZYN 再次領先並超越了平均水平。
I am pleased to share that the underlying demand for ZYN from adult consumer continued to grow in Q4 and was higher than previously assumed.
我很高興地告訴大家,成年消費者對 ZYN 的潛在需求在第四季持續成長,並且高於先前的預期。
We continue to experience some out-of-stock at Intel.
我們繼續遇到英特爾缺貨的情況。
And while production capacity continued increase in our target to normalization sometime in the second half of 2025.
隨著生產能力持續增加,我們的目標是在 2025 年下半年某個時候實現正常化。
We continue to target around 900 million tons of CapEx for the full year from our entity facility.
我們繼續將全年實體工廠的資本支出目標定為約 9 億噸。
And as supply continues to improve, we will look to further extend well beyond our existing customer base.
隨著供應不斷改善,我們將尋求進一步擴大現有客戶群。
The other legal entity that our greenfield site in Colorado is due to come online early 2026, and we believe we are well-positioned to capture this potential over the coming year.
另一個法律實體是,我們在科羅拉多州的綠地工廠將於 2026 年初上線,我們相信,我們已做好準備,在未來一年抓住這一潛力。
Responsible regulation of the industry is moved them into in supporting sustainable future growth for the than any typical.
負責任的行業監管將使他們比任何典型的行業更能支持未來的永續發展。
Now, therefore, encouraged by the recent FDA authorization for the marketing and sale of all the nicotine pouches currently marketed in the US following extensive scientific review by the end.
因此,在經過廣泛的科學審查之後,FDA 最近批准了目前在美國銷售的所有尼古丁袋的營銷和銷售,這令人感到鼓舞。
As mentioned, this legs in the first and only utilizing between both in the market.
如上所述,這是市場上第一個也是唯一一個同時採用這兩種技術的產品。
Among several consideration was substantially lower amounts of harmful constituents that cigarette and smokeless tobacco products as well as current low level.
其中考慮的因素包括香菸和無菸菸草製品中的有害成分含量明顯較低以及目前的含量較低。
The FDA's authorization marks an important step in the protection of the big as by recognizing the role that they can play in providing better as their IT and other traditional tobacco product for legal age either.
FDA 的授權標誌著其在保護大公司方面邁出了重要一步,因為它承認了大公司在為合法年齡的人們提供更好的 IT 和其他傳統菸草產品方面所發揮的作用。
We remain committed to driving industry standard is under control one prevention.
我們始終致力於推動行業標準在控制和預防之下。
This policy, a new system is designed to help 70s, so other than they can trade initial back to an existing products remain at corporate.
這項政策,一個新的系統是為幫助 70 年代的人而設計的,所以除了他們可以將初始產品交易回現有產品之外,他們仍留在公司。
And we dedicate a significant level of resources is before
我們在之前投入了大量的資源
(inaudible).
(聽不清楚)。
Also as an exciting future outside of the year, while still in its very early stages.
儘管仍處於早期階段,但今年以外的未來也令人興奮。
Internationally between box shipments grew by 27 million tons of plus 75%.
國際間箱量增加了2,700萬噸,增幅達75%。
And we already see still booking momentum into international markets such as Pakistan, South Africa, Mexico, the UK and global equities.
我們已經看到巴基斯坦、南非、墨西哥、英國和全球股市等國際市場仍保持強勁勢頭。
Launch nicotine pouches in Sydney market during the quarter reached a total of 67 worldwide, including Italy, Romania, and Thailand.
本季在雪梨市場推出的尼古丁袋全球總數達 67 個,包括義大利、羅馬尼亞和泰國。
Using e-vapor we continue to see strong consumer traction behind.
使用電子蒸汽,我們繼續看到強大的消費者吸引力。
Q1 the grand old because we took a position in that in European market.
Q1 非常重要,因為我們在歐洲市場佔有了一席之地。
And as the number one position in five, including Italy.
並在包括義大利在內的五個國家中排名第一。
These plays an important role within our multi-category strategy has an increasingly trusted choice automobile category fully user at a source of incremental growth, improving economy.
這些在我們的多品類策略中發揮重要作用,讓越來越多的使用者充分信任汽車品類的選擇,成為增量成長的源泉,改善經濟。
Our primary focus for the combustible business is maximized value over time, while supporting the growth of this liquidity.
我們對可燃物業務的主要關注點是隨著時間的推移實現價值最大化,同時支持流動性的成長。
Pricing and cost efficiency, advertisers like performance while maintaining our category leadership.
定價和成本效益,廣告商喜歡性能,同時保持我們的類別領先地位。
We delivered another robust during the quarter with growth of plus 1.1% for all regions contributed '24 organic revenue growth of plus 6.3%, gross profit increasing by 10.8%.
本季我們再次取得了強勁的成績,所有地區均成長了 1.1%,貢獻了 24% 的有機收入成長了 6.3%,毛利成長了 10.8%。
Full-year pricing of plus 8.7% include a small contribution from Germany, Egypt, and Turkey.
全年價格上漲 8.7%,其中包括來自德國、埃及和土耳其的小幅貢獻。
We expect organic 2025, industry pricing normalized plus 5% plus, partly reflecting a GPU hyperinflationary accounting for Q4 2024.
我們預計 2025 年將實現有機成長,產業定價正常化將上漲 5% 以上,部分反映了 2024 年第四季的 GPU 惡性通貨膨脹。
Category share was flat in Q4.
第四季類別份額持平。
We saw positive contribution from Turkey and India, offset by decline in Egypt and Indonesia, with continued growth in the below Tier 1 payment.
我們看到土耳其和印度的積極貢獻,抵消了埃及和印尼的下滑,而一級以下支付則繼續增長。
On a full-year basis, we grew category share plus 0.1 points, reaching all-time IQOS both mobile and our global brands follow.
從全年來看,我們的品類份額增長了 0.1 個百分點,達到了歷史最高水平,移動品牌和我們的全球品牌都緊隨其後。
This brings me to the outlook for 2025 where we expect another year of strong growth from all categories driving top and bottom line delivery.
這讓我想到了 2025 年的展望,我們預計所有類別都將再度強勁成長,推動營收和利潤的交付。
We anticipate the fifth consecutive year of positive volume growth of 30% plus 2%, notably driven by another year of strong growth in smoke-free products at around plus 12%, plus 14%.
我們預計,公司銷售將連續第五年實現 30% 和 2% 的正成長,這主要得益於無菸產品業務的強勁成長,增幅分別約為 12% 和 14%。
IQOS we expect the continuation of strong momentum with the absolute boost in H2 as the aim is what you expected to be at similar levels to 2024.
我們預計 IQOS 將繼續保持強勁勢頭,並在下半年實現絕對成長,目標是達到與 2024 年相似的水平。
At this point, that's the Syndros shipment growth to be broadly in line with this double digits and Victory subject to the usual inherent volatility of shipment timing and trade inventory movement, we expect ongoing strong growth dynamic within the US you could impact the February despite the supply constraints I mentioned before.
目前,Syndros 的出貨量成長與兩位數大致相符,而 Victory 則受制於出貨時間和貿易庫存變動通常固有的波動性,我們預計美國將繼續保持強勁的增長勢頭,這可能會對 2 月份產生影響,儘管我之前提到過供應限制。
We forecast a US in volume shipment range of 780 million to 820 million tons at end of the year, supported by capacity expansion.
我們預測,在產能擴張的支持下,美國年底的出口量將達到 7.8 億至 8.2 億噸。
This represents another year of the central generation volumes is an expected increase of approximately 200 equivalent of million gallons compared to the 190 million an increase in 2024.
這意味著中央發電量預計將在 2024 年 1.9 億加侖的基礎上再增加約 2 億加侖。
This was the total TMI forecast of plus 6%, plus 8% organic net revenue growth.
這是 TMI 對淨收入成長 6% 和 8% 的總預測。
This includes a headwind of over 100 basis points due to either inflationary accounting energy and the technical impact of implementing the new financial model to the Indonesia below Tier 1.
這包括由於通膨會計能量和對一級以下印尼實施新財務模型的技術影響而導致的超過 100 個基點的逆風。
Cities in China and Indonesia has no effect on the voting.
中國和印尼的城市對投票沒有影響。
Moving down to the P&L, we expect ongoing small clinics effect, operating leverage and cost efficiency drive double digit adjusted operating income growth.
至於損益表,我們預期持續的小型診所效應、營運槓桿和成本效率將推動調整後營業收入達到兩位數成長。
But it is a growth of plus 10.5% plus
但成長率是10.5%以上
(inaudible).
(聽不清楚)。
This includes for those of growth in both gross and adjusted EBIT margin forecast expense in both organically and adjusted, the lock them up 7 million.
這包括對毛利率和調整後息稅前利潤率預測費用(有機和調整後)的增長,鎖定 700 萬美元。
We expect SG&A costs increased broadly in line with net revenue on an organic basis as we invest behind our Smith, we forecast currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth of plus 10.5% to plus 12.5%.
我們預計,由於我們投資史密斯,銷售、一般及行政開支將與淨收入在有機基礎上大致同步增長,我們預測經貨幣中性調整後的稀釋每股收益將增長 10.5% 至 12.5%。
These factors in essentially stable net interest expense and an increase in our exit and -- corporate tax rate to approximately 22.5% to 23.5% due to tax increases
這些因素包括基本穩定的淨利息支出以及由於稅收增加導致的退出和公司稅率增加至約 22.5% 至 23.5%
(inaudible).
(聽不清楚)。
We're going to be plus global minimum tax and the mix of international and good afternoon forecast growth of plus seven plus 9% to a range of $7 $47.70. This includes an unfavorable forecast currency impact of 20% of revenue, a two way primarily driven by the both sides of the dollar mitigated by our
我們將加上全球最低稅率和國際下午好預測增長加上 7 加上 9% 的範圍到 7 美元 47.70 美元。這包括預測的不利貨幣影響,佔收入的 20%,這是雙向影響,主要由美元的兩面推動,而我們的
(inaudible).
(聽不清楚)。
For the first quarter of 2025.
2025 年第一季。
We expect a strong start to the year with net revenue and operating income growth broadly in line with our full-year objectives.
我們預計今年將會有一個強勁的開局,淨收入和營業收入的成長將與我們的全年目標大致一致。
Despite the need to be a comparison, we forecast each new adjusted aim is growth of around plus 10%, which factors in the large annualization impact on the new flavor ban in the quarter is a progressive improvement to the.
儘管需要進行比較,但我們預測每個新的調整後的目標都是增長 10% 左右,其中考慮到本季度新口味禁令對年化的巨大影響,這是一個漸進式的改善。
We forecast shipment volume of certain 5 to 36 billion for edge news and one and 71 hundred and 80 million CAN USD4 project, one adjusted diluted EPS of $1.58 $1.3, including a negative currency variance of $0.04 at the win rates and an effective corporate tax rate to three points higher than the prior year quarter.
我們預測邊緣新聞的出貨量將達到 50 億至 360 億加元,而 400 億美元的銷售額和 171.8 億加元的 4 期項目出貨量將達到,調整後的稀釋每股收益為 1.58 至 1.3 美元,其中包括中期匯率的負 0.04 美元貨幣。
Our 2020 for delivery in 2020 outlook, we are well-positioned to meet or exceed four metrics of the most important targets presented at our 2010 today.
我們對2020年交付目標的展望是,我們完全有能力達到或超過我們在2010年提出的最重要目標中的四個指標。
This is especially true at the level of operating income growth as well as for EPS delivery, where our abilities and assume constant consistent.
在營業收入成長和每股盈餘交付方面尤其如此,我們的能力和假設始終保持一致。
It seems like that this level of top and bottom line growth reflects a best-in-class growth profile within the context of large-cap Instinet's activity.
看起來,這種頂線和底線成長水準反映了大型股 Instinet 活動範圍內最佳的成長狀況。
Importantly, we're also well on track to deliver high single digit adjusted diluted EPS growth in dollar terms.
重要的是,我們也有望實現以美元計算的高個位數調整後攤薄每股收益成長。
Of course, the 2020 fourth, 2020 period, it is an extremely well.
當然,2020年第四個、2020年時期,這是一個非常好的。
Indeed, we measure our cash flows in data.
事實上,我們用數據來衡量我們的現金流。
And after we got delivering 2024, we expect to deliver operating cash flow of around $11 billion for 2025.
在實現 2024 年目標後,我們預計 2025 年的營運現金流將達到約 110 億美元。
This is broadly in line with consequences for once accounting for the non-recurring payment is a total impact of around $1 billion.
這大致與一旦計入非經常性付款的後果相符,總影響約為 10 億美元。
While we continue to assess the German tax plus base, we have decided to make a $0.8 billion up in and this year.
在我們繼續評估德國稅收基數的同時,我們決定在今年增加 8 億美元。
And we also anticipate final transition tax payments related to the US and Europe.
我們也預計將支付與美國和歐洲相關的最終過渡稅。
We anticipate capital expenditure of around $1.5 billion is the last portion of this related to the as we saw it as being behind.
我們預計約 15 億美元的資本支出是其中的最後一部分,因為我們認為它已經落後。
I was missing our strong consistent cash flow and EBITDA growth, combined with a favorable impact from our euro balance sheet at June allowed us to reduce our net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio by 0.5 times 2.66%, the head of our expectation and representing a drama acceleration of our deleveraging.
我懷念我們強勁持續的現金流和 EBITDA 成長,再加上 6 月歐元資產負債表的有利影響,使我們能夠將淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率降低 0.5 倍至 2.66%,這超出了我們的預期,也代表著我們去槓桿化的戲劇性加速。
We expect further progress in 2025, placing us on track for our target ratio of around two times by the end of 2026.
我們預計 2025 年將取得進一步進展,並有望達到 2026 年底約兩倍的目標比例。
I will now turn back to Jacek for concluding remarks.
現在我將請雅采克作最後發言。
Jacek Olczak - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jacek Olczak - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Emmanuel.
謝謝你,伊曼紐。
In summary, 2024 was a remarkable year for PMI, our financial results as we finalize the plans of our strategy on the percent of our transformation of underlying momentum across affect those bonds of by our plan at this license on pricing and cost position.
總而言之,2024 年對於 PMI 來說是非凡的一年,隨著我們最終確定戰略計劃,我們的財務業績將根據我們在此許可下的計劃對這些債券產生的潛在動量轉變百分比影響。
I remain confident in our position of the global smoke (inaudible) as we continue to execute on our multi-category strategy.
隨著我們繼續執行多類別策略,我仍然對我們在全球煙霧市場的地位充滿信心(聽不清楚)。
We are building (inaudible) brands IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV.
我們正在打造(聽不清楚)品牌 IQOS、ZYN 和 VEEV。
Our three strategic priorities for 2025 (inaudible) as the continued support of the expansion and level of month of our smoke-free business in the US and international.
我們 2025 年的三大策略重點(聽不清楚)是繼續支持我們在美國和國際上的無菸業務的擴張和月度水準。
We expect continued strong momentum in 2025 and remain confident in our ability to deliver or exceed our 2024, 2026 growth targets that are responsible for all our ambition of becoming a substantially smoke free by '27.
我們預計 2025 年將繼續保持強勁勢頭,並對我們實現或超越 2024 年、2026 年增長目標的能力充滿信心,這些目標有助於我們實現到 2027 年基本無菸的宏偉目標。
Finally and importantly, our strong growth out of a highly cash generative business enabled us to compose the right investments in our market performance in line with our the entire spectrum of September was going is our annualized dividend for the seventeenth consecutive year and in line with our long-term commitment.
最後,也是最重要的一點,我們高現金生成業務的強勁增長使我們能夠根據整個 9 月份的走勢對市場表現進行正確的投資,這是我們連續第十七年派發年度股息,也符合我們的長期承諾。
Thank you and Emanuel and I now one to answer your questions.
謝謝伊曼紐爾,現在我來回答你的問題。
Operator
Operator
Thank you.
謝謝。
(Operator instructions)
(操作員指令)
Matt Smith, Stifel.
馬特史密斯(Matt Smith),史蒂費爾(Stifel)。
Matthew Smith - Analyst
Matthew Smith - Analyst
Hi, Jacek and Emmanuel.
你好,Jacek 和 Emmanuel。
The 2025, our cost for HTU shipments in the numbers are in market sales growth fairly in line with what you saw in 2024.
到 2025 年,我們的 HTU 出貨成本與市場銷售成長數字與 2024 年的水準基本一致。
But could you talk about the composition of the growth if it overall in line.
但如果整體符合預期,您能否談談成長的組成?
Are you seeing different contribution by geography in your outlook?
在您的展望中,您是否看到了不同地區的不同貢獻?
And can you remind us on if there is been any progress in new markets contributing to growth in 2025?
您能否提醒我們,2025 年新市場是否取得了任何進展,以促進成長?
Or if you've made any progress in those markets as you look at your 2026 course.
或者,當您展望 2026 年的歷程時,您是否在這些市場取得了任何進展。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Emmanuel Babeau - Chief Financial Officer
Emmanuel Babeau - Chief Financial Officer
So in the guidance, we essentially continue seeing good growth in Japan and the team there and a number of parts in Europe from the line of Emmanuel mentioned about the Italy, Czech Poland trade.
因此,在指導中,我們基本上繼續看到日本及其團隊以及歐洲許多地區的良好成長,從 Emmanuel 提到的義大利、捷克波蘭貿易來看。
When the growth is a bit below what we would expect at this stage, especially Italy and check following that the flavor to have done.
當成長速度略低於我們在此階段的預期時,尤其是義大利,然後檢查味道是否已經做好。
But we also see that there is some recovery coming in.
但我們也看到一些復甦正在出現。
So I think quinoa, hopefully in the second part of the year, we should bring Italy and other geographies that far towards the rest of the Europe piece going for.
因此,我認為藜麥預計在今年下半年將義大利和其他地區推向歐洲其他地區。
And we have now in the guidance assume any significant new market openings in terms of evolve.
現在,我們已經在指導中假設了發展方面的任何重大新市場開放。
And as you know, VEEV, I mean our delinquent this rationale were fighting with demonstrably center alterations of heat-not-burn.
正如您所知,VEEV,我的意思是我們在這一基礎上正在與加熱不燃燒的明顯核心變化作鬥爭。
Now the pouches incentive for end products away allowing cigarettes for dinner guidance coming from the new geographies of this is all organic growth quarters of this year.
現在,袋裝最終產品的激勵措施讓來自新地區的晚餐香菸獲得指導,這是今年所有有機成長季度的結果。
Despite market is already on a on a smoke-free products the growth continues there.
儘管市場已經專注於無菸產品,但成長仍在繼續。
Operator
Operator
Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.
高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格 (Bonnie Herzog)。
Bonnie Herzog - Analyst
Bonnie Herzog - Analyst
Hi, Emmanuel and Jacek, I have a question on your margins.
你好,Emmanuel 和 Jacek,我對你們的利潤率有疑問。
I think you can highlight, sir.
先生,我想您可以強調一下。
Also, I wanted to verify at the time it has just passed by continued investments without any corresponding sales.
另外,我想驗證一下當時只是持續投資而沒有任何相應的銷售。
And then how long it might take at Carrier, are going to be meaningful?
那麼對於 Carrier 來說這需要多長時間才有意義呢?
Emmanuel Babeau - Chief Financial Officer
Emmanuel Babeau - Chief Financial Officer
Good morning is that I would just have 100 basis points of our territory.
早安,我只會擁有我們領土的 100 個基點。
This is what we're looking into is that looking at the pricing contributions, pretty obvious mix, right between categories and especially on the positive to margin, including the vape strategy of going selectively, but as needed to in order to deliver into money.
我們正在研究的是研究定價貢獻,非常明顯的組合,就在類別之間,特別是對利潤的積極影響,包括有選擇地採用的電子煙策略,但需要根據需要來實現盈利。
So this will contribute and soon our drinks headwinds coming from my colleagues and I previously the Sol and our conversations this base here and there are special income.
因此,這將有助於我們很快獲得飲料方面的收益,而這些收益來自我和我的同事之前的 Sol 以及我們在此基礎上進行的對話,這些都是特殊收入。
I mean supply chain, as you know, US from the day and is essentially self sufficient a block.
我的意思是供應鏈,如你所知,美國從第一天起基本上是自給自足的。
So I don't see it should be any surprises coming for.
因此我不認為會發生什麼意外。
Will land with the COGS for the year.
將會與 COGS 一起登陸一年。
Or is obviously ongoing support coming from the economy of scale.
或者顯然是來自規模經濟的持續支持。
There was the robustness of the device in terms of quality, et cetera.
該設備在質量等方面非常堅固。
So we are coming from a device that we have well stabilized for 2024.
因此,我們的設備已在 2024 年得到很好的穩定。
I think wage voyage, we should expect the same five.
我想,在工資航行中,我們應該期待同樣的五。
Now your questions we have with regards Illuma margins in the US, again, may prefer a consumer around the needs of the GRM again, on our total scientific, et cetera.
現在您的問題與 Illuma 在美國的利潤率有關,同樣,我們可能更傾向於消費者對 GRM 的需求,以及我們的整體科學等等。
Review FDA gave authorizations followed by the ends of the industry in some Big Tex 5G or is it must be total fee pressure horizon?
審查 FDA 給予的授權,隨後是一些 Big Tex 5G 行業的終結,或者它必須是總費用壓力範圍?
I cannot explain or do more faster and generated.
我無法解釋或做得更快和更生成。
I cut my spending for a while and by the forum for us.
我暫時削減了開支,並透過論壇為我們節省了開支。
And so the margins start adding support behind that in a scheme of the things in the P&L size.
因此,利潤率開始在損益表規模的方案中增加對此的支持。
If the light of our business in the US, I don't think it's our purpose, which had an acute not burdening another place this two to three years, we should equal to the bottom line, bearing in mind really have the pack.
如果考慮到我們在美國的業務,我不認為我們的目標是在未來兩到三年內不給另一個地方帶來負擔,我們應該堅持底線,並牢記我們的承諾。
We don't really where we're awaiting a better starting position.
我們確實不知道在哪裡可以找到更好的起點。
And we know we've had a growing US and international over the last three years.
我們知道,過去三年來,我們在美國和國際市場都不斷成長。
Physician side, I believe it's really a great proposition for adult smokers in the view.
從醫生的角度來看,我相信這對成年吸菸者來說確實是一個很好的建議。
Jacek Olczak - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jacek Olczak - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Just to complement on the margin size, as you can judge from our guidance, we have sigmnificant ambition in terms of margin improvement in 2025.
為了補充利潤規模,您可以從我們的指導中判斷,我們對 2025 年的利潤率提高抱有遠大的抱負。
And what is driving is that is the fact that we are flying on civil engineer positively at the same time.
而推動這項進程的事實是,我們同時正積極推動土木工程的發展。
So indeed, no, we are very favorable to us with smoke-free product coming with a higher margin product.
所以事實上,我們對無菸產品非常有利,因為它的利潤率更高。
We have the US and ZYN. that is growing even that in terms of margin.
我們有美國和ZYN。從利潤率來看,這還在成長。
So that's obviously a plus to deliver 8% plus price increase on convertible.
因此,敞篷車價格上漲 8% 以上顯然是一個優勢。
That is going to remain extremely robust.
這一勢頭仍將保持極為強勁。
We grew our price, not at the same level, but significantly on our smoke-free portfolio.
我們提高了價格,雖然不是在同一水平,但對我們的無菸產品組合來說,價格提高了不少。
Our scale effect that are delivering pretty significant headwind on cost, notably on the combustible business.
我們的規模經濟對成本產生了相當大的阻力,特別是在可燃業務方面。
This is it and '26 to be even better than '25 by the way.
就是這樣,順便說一下,'26 甚至比 '25 更好。
So we are going in the right direction there.
因此,我們正朝著正確的方向前進。
Bonnie Herzog - Analyst
Bonnie Herzog - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
If our help, and actually, I am just going to ask a quick follow-up.
如果我們有幫助,實際上,我只是想快速跟進。
Could you kind of came about in a targeting or continue to target gross margin expansion in combustibles care, smoke-free product gross margin at 10 point gap.
您能否以某種方式確定目標,或繼續以可燃物護理、無菸產品毛利率擴大為目標,將差距保持在 10 個百分點。
So here both I think what I'm hearing you say is that an anomaly is at an application that ourself gap expanding.
因此,我認為我聽到的你說的是應用程式中存在異常,我們的差距正在擴大。
And then I think our affected employees spread or yes, critical at 20%, just kind of capital.
然後我認為受影響的員工人數會分散,或者是的,危及 20%,這只是一種資本。
Jacek Olczak - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jacek Olczak - Chief Executive Officer, Director
We've already to the fact that there was a 10 percentage point gap and it has been a gross margin for combustible and we export so rapidly on smoke-free products.
我們已經意識到存在 10 個百分點的差距,這是可燃物的毛利率,而且我們無菸產品的出口如此迅速。
And of course, you know, with the mix effect coming from Fred Zinn, but progress.
當然,您知道,混合效果來自 Fred Zinn,但這是一種進步。
And so we could have indeed a gap that could continue to expand between Bankia around into Thanksgiving eighteenth through.
因此,我們確實可能會發現 Bankia 之間的差距可能會持續擴大,直至 18 日感恩節。
Operator
Operator
Gaurav Jain, Barclays.
巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain。
Gaurav Jain - Analyst
Gaurav Jain - Analyst
Growth in your guidance is for 34% to 41% growth.
您的指導成長率是 34% 到 41%。
So I just wanted to understand what gives us the confidence that industrial is and will be.
所以我只是想要了解是什麼讓我們對工業現在和未來的發展充滿信心。
So I will take a Rocket Logic is how I look also on or how the value of the weeks of the last quarter.
因此,我將採用 Rocket Logic 來觀察上一季的幾週的價值。
Emmanuel Babeau - Chief Financial Officer
Emmanuel Babeau - Chief Financial Officer
We see behind that and actually had a few weeks which was growing in a velocity is not the rest of the at least to have to understand that we are reading all this data will fly constrained and viable prices a bit difficult time.
我們看到,實際上,在過去的幾個星期裡,經濟成長的速度並沒有減緩,至少我們必須明白,我們正在閱讀的所有這些數據都會限制價格的上漲,而可行的價格在這段時間內會有些困難。
You'll see it.
你會看到它的。
There are really different than what we're shipping car, so that would attract.
它們與我們運輸的汽車確實有所不同,因此很有吸引力。
But in our Q4 least capacity and Owensboro second sequential quarter-on-quarter growth run rate of what we see the last weeks it does is somehow reflecting what we see that in how we should we think that we should be meeting that demand vitamins, that it's difficult to actually read what the demand is because their existing users of ZYN. and demand for the product and now their purchases of somehow impacted by that compared with the lack of a bill of lack of and manage the you know, all the positive from a bank patients switch.
但是,在我們第四季度的最低產能和歐文斯伯勒第二個連續季度環比增長運行率中,我們看到過去幾週的情況確實在某種程度上反映了我們所看到的,即我們應該如何滿足維生素的需求,因為現有的 ZYN 用戶實際上很難讀懂需求是什麼。和對產品的需求,現在他們的購買在某種程度上受到了影響,與缺乏帳單相比,缺乏和管理,你知道,所有來自銀行患者的積極轉變。
Now on the one hand, one could reach product was in America.
現在一方面,人們能夠在美國獲得產品。
So there is no visibility and stability to all market participants, including trade.
因此,對於包括貿易在內的所有市場參與者來說,都不存在可見性和穩定性。
And I believe also the comp flesh out why language authorization, the things I think was translations of the volumes, which were reflected in our in our again, a question that, you know, Suzuki and I think you increase price in that $0.3 last year, $3 $5 how they approve a supply normalizes to reduce lead.
我還相信公司會充實為什麼語言授權,我認為是卷的翻譯,這再次反映在我們的問題中,你知道,鈴木和我認為你去年將價格提高了 0.3 美元,3 美元 5 美元他們如何批准供應正常化以減少鉛。
But as I said, polyol volume, yes, of ZYN is experiencing is obviously managing the price of the retail level.
但正如我所說,ZYN 的多元醇產量顯然正在管理零售水準的價格。
If I mean, it's pretty obvious.
如果我是這個意思的話,這很明顯。
But I believe from the growing supply of the product, I think from normalizations, I kept also admit that look and our retailers handling of products and channel is not that easy for them on start to realize they margins.
但我相信,從產品供應的成長來看,從正常化來看,我也一直承認,我們的零售商對產品和通路的處理並不容易,他們開始很難實現利潤。
And in our database from a zoning price and the general this pricing situations in the market, well, the product will be in a fuller unconstrained half of '25.
在我們的資料庫中,從分區價格以及市場上一般的定價情況來看,產品在 25 年的一半左右將處於更充分的不受約束的狀態。
Gaurav Jain - Analyst
Gaurav Jain - Analyst
We should start seeing we should start seeing improvement on this on the product as and when do you think you can see it in the market?
我們應該開始看到產品在這方面有所改進,您認為何時可以在市場上看到它?
Yes.
是的。
Emmanuel Babeau - Chief Financial Officer
Emmanuel Babeau - Chief Financial Officer
So obviously, as sufficient time, of course, not administrations now, I guess we'll have four sorry, for the new administration, as I said, in the period of four or five years waiting for our organization is and I do believe that there will be some we have to also understand that, you know, partially the challenge with the US market has very much on the part of the market has not be create the right things in terms of our from the line for us reinforce on the other hand, there is a demand among smokers, adult NewCo, 10 users for the value of in a fast manner.
因此顯然,由於時間充足,當然現在不是換屆的時候,我想我們會有四年或五年的時間等待新政府,我確實相信會有一些我們必須理解的事情,你知道,美國市場面臨的部分挑戰很大程度上在於市場尚未創造出正確的東西,從另一方面來說,吸煙者、成年 NewCo 用戶對快速的價值有需求。
We essentially are wasting our FDA who will take this on Sabina considerations that I don't know that the performance of most of the better part of my head and neck and volume, you cannot just control the illicit market if you haven't provided I cost cycles as well.
我們基本上是在浪費我們的 FDA,他們會考慮薩賓娜的問題,我不知道我的大部分頭部和頸部的表現以及體積,如果你沒有提供我的成本週期,你就不能僅僅控制非法市場。
But as ZYN has, I do believe that there cannot be processed in a faster.
但正如 ZYN 所說,我確實相信無法以更快的速度處理。
Gaurav Jain - Analyst
Gaurav Jain - Analyst
Thank you so much.
太感謝了。
Operator
Operator
Pamela Kaufman, Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利的帕梅拉·考夫曼。
Pamela Kaufman - Analyst
Pamela Kaufman - Analyst
Okay, great.
好的,太好了。
Thanks, guys.
謝謝大家。
I'll add some color in terms of what you're seeing in Italy, the national coverage you saw in the third quarter from our characterizing point.
我將根據您在義大利看到的情況,以及從我們的特徵點來看第三季的全國覆蓋情況,補充一些說明。
Can you remind us when when you expect to see some disrupting implemented and what sort of an impact you expect in terms of overall European completely on FX?
您能否提醒我們,您預計何時會看到一些顛覆性舉措的實施,以及您預計這對整個歐洲外匯市場會產生什麼樣的影響?
It seems like the FX headwind seems to be implied based on spot rates and your typical change in hedging policy or am I if there's any reason why it may be?
似乎外匯逆風似乎是根據現貨匯率和對沖政策的典型變化而暗示的,或者是否有任何原因導致這種情況?
Thank you.
謝謝。
Emmanuel Babeau - Chief Financial Officer
Emmanuel Babeau - Chief Financial Officer
Got sub $5 million or $0.22 at spot rates right now.
目前現貨價格低於 500 萬美元或 0.22 美元。
And I frankly speaking, the various they are actually goes in a sense of I guess it was the direct pretty dynamic times as we speak.
坦白說,從某種意義上說,它們實際上是各種各樣的,我想這是我們談話時直接看到的相當動態的時期。
But this is coming from the Egyptian pound drive is that obviously will not be a rapid rate of repeat repeat in that in '25, actually various, but this is on Pandora.
但這來自埃及鎊的驅動,顯然不會以'25 年那樣的速度快速重複,實際上情況各異,但這是在潘多拉上。
And so frankly speaking and as I said, the $0.04 or so additional footprint, the manual wants to add supply.
坦白說,正如我所說,手冊想要增加 0.04 美元左右的額外佔用空間來供應。
I want to add some we see a market today, probably a good touch first on, you know how things are working for us, our balance sheet with more than 60% of our debt.
我想補充一點,我們今天看到的市場,可能首先是一個很好的接觸,你知道事情對我們來說是如何運作的,我們的資產負債表上有超過 60% 的債務。
And recently, of course, we have a negative impact on our P&L, but we have also a decrease also benefiting from lower cost of debt in Europe, plus, of course, lower interest rate.
最近,當然,我們的損益表受到了負面影響,但同時也受益於歐洲債務成本的降低,當然還有較低的利率。
Interest costs in Europe translated into data.
歐洲的利息成本轉化為數據。
So that has been certainly helping our continued weakness of the euro that will continue to help us fully captured by the market is the fact that you can't hedge position one on our exposure to the end for 2025, we have around six covered at a rate of around $138 for $1.
因此,這肯定有助於歐元持續走弱,並將繼續幫助我們完全被市場所捕獲,事實是,你無法對沖我們到 2025 年底的風險敞口,我們有大約六個頭寸,匯率約為 138 美元兌 1 美元。
We are not impacted by the placebo deterioration of our exposure, and we have also a lower exposure to a lower aging. Sorry, on the fifth sorry, one-fourth of our exposure to Europe, which is also limiting a big impact on the P&L.
我們不會受到安慰劑暴露惡化的影響,而且我們對較低老化的暴露也較低。抱歉,第五,抱歉,我們在歐洲的投資佔四分之一,這也對損益產生了很大的影響。
You have all the explanation for this question has been sharing with you on the ForEx impact for us today.
您已經對這個問題的所有解釋已經與我們分享了 ForEx 對我們今天的影響。
The second half was a bit weaker than we would maybe expect from Italy was going to the member states of the euro for the flavor ban hub for temporary rise.
下半年的表現可能比我們預期的要弱一些,因為義大利正向歐元區成員國實施調味品禁令,以暫時提振經濟。
But there is better than one could expect of saying there is some polyols that I believe may be partially, as I said, advance the first in our in our refill of very shortly after a short period, we need to maybe look at the end of the Company total basis because there will be some like this and by the factories in Europe that very shortly after I mean at the actual return to the Italy is our clients are looking into this holiday leakage at the heat-not-burn users, we can capture the value proposition.
但是,情況比人們預期的要好,正如我所說的,我認為有些多元醇可能會部分地推進我們在短時間內重新填充的第一階段,我們可能需要看看公司總體基礎的結束,因為會有一些這樣的情況,在歐洲的工廠,我的意思是在實際返回意大利之後不久,我們的客戶正在研究這種加熱不燃燒用戶的假期洩漏,我們可以捕捉到價值主張。
Then I guess even Poland to you asking about the Poland, I don't think patent, but as I say later in when they happen to be if this is not.
那麼我想即使你問到波蘭,我也不認為是專利,但正如我稍後所說的那樣,當他們碰巧不是這樣的時候。
Pamela Kaufman - Analyst
Pamela Kaufman - Analyst
Great, thanks so much.
太好了,非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Faham Baig, UBS Equities.
瑞銀股票部的 Faham Baig 說。
Faham Baig - Analyst
Faham Baig - Analyst
Hi, guys.
嗨,大家好。
A couple from me as well.
我也有一對。
We noticed a couple of your peers have have launched and synthetic voice and data have seen some initial uptake.
我們注意到,你們的一些同行已經開始了合成語音和數據的研究,並且取得了初步進展。
And how do you see the moist versus where do you think the consumer may end up in the future, recognizing that in Europe?
您如何看待未來歐洲的消費者趨勢?
And the second question, maybe come back to that.
第二個問題,也許我們會回到這個問題。
But just longer term, I'm quite quite strongly and we can discuss it flows around flavors, marketing, underage, you went for the tobacco industry or do you believe the impact on tobacco?
但從長期來看,我非常強烈地反對,我們可以討論一下口味、營銷、未成年人等問題,您是否關注煙草行業,或者您是否相信其對煙草的影響?
Emmanuel Babeau - Chief Financial Officer
Emmanuel Babeau - Chief Financial Officer
Yes.
是的。
So maybe the second part I take it up in the total pie grows, despite the fact that, you know, the the movements between the categories were finished, smoke-free.
因此,也許我所考慮的第二部分在整個餅圖中會增長,儘管您知道,類別之間的移動已經完成,並且無菸。
There are some dynamics right between the heat-not-burn anyway, but Nepal, which is now depends on market is organized and regulated.
無論如何,加熱不燃燒之間都存在一些動態,但尼泊爾現在依賴市場組織和監管。
We also know that the most difficult actually to recategorize idea that the way the market disorganized currently is the vape categorize because you have a disposal as you have parts, you have opened tank systems still and some product.
我們也知道,實際上最困難的重新分類是,當前市場混亂的方式是對 vape 進行分類,因為你有處理器,有零件,有打開的儲罐系統,還有一些產品。
We are now under the regulations and properly our authorized depends on the jurisdiction.
我們現在受到法規的約束,我們的授權取決於司法管轄權。
Some products such as popping up in a market test.
有些產品就像在市場測試中突然出現的那樣。
So you could call it a different forms of illicit trade.
所以你可以稱之為不同形式的非法貿易。
But I think you said this in the US, but also in Europe in the UK and a few other places, the regulators, governments are taking numerous scenarios to low 10s to properly organized in that market.
但我認為你在美國說過這一點,但在歐洲、英國和其他一些地方也說過這一點,監管機構、政府正在採取許多低於 10 的方案來妥善組織該市場。
I can't tell you whether this will be completed in 25, but definitely there is a term of the most months the moves in the right direction.
我無法告訴你這是否會在 25 天內完成,但肯定有一個為期數月的計劃正在朝著正確的方向發展。
So I believe '25, '26, the category should be normalized by the fact that it's going to be properly regulated.
因此我相信,25、26年,該類別應該透過適當的監管而正常化。
And then we take it from there.
然後我們從那裡開始。
Another one to talk about your exposure, et cetera, because we have is on, you know, our policy are now $1 of deals on this one, but definitely difficult of control out the discipline.
另外一個要談論的是你的曝光度等等,因為我們有,你知道,我們的政策現在是這一項的 1 美元交易,但絕對很難控制紀律。
The market, if you're dealing with now one of the different combinations of the product coming essentially illegal to the marketplace that obviously also enjoys the less than simply in trade channels from completely invisible trade channels, if you like, et cetera.
市場,如果你現在正在處理的產品的不同組合之一,本質上是非法進入市場的,顯然也享受不到簡單的貿易渠道,而是完全隱形的貿易渠道,如果你願意的話,等等。
When it comes to your questions about the sense that the events versus dry self, just to take it from a perspective, the way we look at the data in the US, for example, this whole new things which are coming into the market, there was a quite a long list of a different SKUs.
當談到您關於活動與乾性自我的感覺的問題時,僅從一個角度來理解,我們看待美國數據的方式,例如,這些進入市場的全新事物,有相當長的不同 SKU 列表。
And you know, the moist well, our harvest and the whole market that's part of the market.
你知道,濕井、我們的收成和整個市場都是市場的一部分。
I'm not mistaken can move year on year by Beverly 20 basis points.
我沒記錯的話,貝弗利可以比去年同期上漲 20 個基點。
So in a scale of the things that's presumably a lot of dynamics on the on the on a weekly basis, but doesn't seem that is general has XenApp and a major attractions, et cetera.
因此,從規模上看,每周可能都有很多動態,但似乎沒有普遍的 XenApp 和主要吸引力等等。
The insights which will have when we talk of a consumer's, we see and obviously, you know, when you read the consumer insight is not a pure mathematical accuracy and the exact number.
當我們談論消費者時,我們會看到消費者洞察,顯然,您知道,當您閱讀消費者洞察時,它不是純粹的數學準確性和精確的數字。
But I think that most products, most pouch products with more appealing for the moist snuff, our type of users, right, like snows, et cetera, while what we see in the marketplace that drive product has more FPI. towards the small cars and e-vapor, are you VPs are this what I can tell you at this stage.
但我認為大多數產品,大多數袋裝產品對濕鼻煙更有吸引力,我們的用戶類型,例如雪茄等等,而我們在市場上看到的驅動產品具有更多的 FPI。對於小型車和電子煙,你們是副總裁嗎?
Faham Baig - Analyst
Faham Baig - Analyst
Thank you, guys.
謝謝你們。
Really appreciate that.
真的很感激。
Operator
Operator
[Shane] of JPMorgan.
摩根大通的[Shane]。
Shane - Analyst
Shane - Analyst
I guess in and thanks very much.
我猜是的,非常感謝。
Terry tectonic shift.
特里地殼轉變。
And I just had one question case.
我只有一個疑問案例。
I was just on 18% guidance.
我剛剛得到了 18% 的指導。
And if I look at where the Biden plan at the end of '24 and then I look at the guidance range of 10% to 12% used scientific for 25% as a shock like that I had for '26 and looking at your guidance there of the 100 to 200 million of annual meeting of unit volume, just trying to get a sense of what gives you confidence.
如果我看一下拜登在 24 年底的計劃,然後我看一下 10%到 12%的指導範圍,科學地使用 25%作為對 26 年的衝擊,看看你對 1 億到 2 億年會議單位數量的指導,只是想了解是什麼讓你有信心。
And by my math, it implies NOVA acceleration and growth in 2026.
根據我的計算,這意味著 NOVA 將在 2026 年加速並成長。
And I just wanted to understand if that's what gets you to our conference call, you will see that acceleration and '26.
我只是想了解,如果這就是讓您參加我們的電話會議的原因,您就會看到這種加速和『26』。
Emmanuel Babeau - Chief Financial Officer
Emmanuel Babeau - Chief Financial Officer
Yes.
是的。
So as I said earlier, I mean, in the guidance for this year from '25, we essentially stayed very low in total.
正如我之前所說,我的意思是,在 25 年對今年的指導中,我們的總量基本上保持在非常低的水平。
We essentially focus on organic growth in America.
我們主要關注美國的有機成長。
We reopened the Pheno '25 and beyond '26, I think, is becoming much more prudent of fair to assume there will be some geographies and solve coming.
我認為,我們重新開放了 Pheno '25 以及 '26 以後,公平地假設將會出現一些地理問題並得到解決將變得更加謹慎。
Finally underpinning the markets that value proposition there is one point which I might be we haven't articulated well in the in our remarks and answers to questions before is that there is still about 20 or so percent of the volumes on a heat not burn that we don't really know what we would become truly realize the full growth potential.
最後,支撐市場價值主張的一點是,我們之前在評論和回答問題時可能沒有很好地表達出來,那就是仍然有大約 20% 左右的加熱不燃燒產品的數量,我們真的不知道我們會變成什麼樣子,真正實現全部增長潛力。
And I'm referring here to the geographies of Russia, and you're correct now for obvious reasons, but survival, I just look at the numbers of '22.
我這裡指的是俄羅斯的地理位置,出於顯而易見的原因,你現在是正確的,但對於生存,我只看 22 年的數字。
As far as saying, we have a lever to be far behind about 0.6, maybe even more point of a drop off, which you would normally expect to deliver evolve.
也就是說,我們的槓桿遠遠落後於約 0.6,甚至可能下降更多,而這通常是您期望實現的。
This market were and are subject to the same sort of market conditions as other places, right, Zillow, my et cetera.
這個市場過去和現在都受到與其他地方相同的市場條件的影響,對吧,Zillow,我的等等。
So Buckeye, let's see how this unwind.
所以,七葉樹,讓我們看看事情會如何發展。
I think the the graph which were projected very much focused on organic growth, organic, meaning of the geographies which we have today and I think is a good growth.
我認為預測的圖表非常注重有機成長,有機的意思是我們現在的地理位置,我認為這是一種好的成長。
Volume terms is essentially are the same volume growth as we used to having a pass.
從數量上看,其增長量基本上與我們過去的通行證數量增長量相同。
But out of a broader sense, we modern Morrissey, the potential of the multi-category and the total volumes of the smoke-free products is just the one category.
但從更廣泛的意義上講,我們現代的莫里西,多類別的潛力和無菸產品的總量只是一個類別。
And as we know very well the margin and then from a margin perspective, they all they all essentially create the gray to the opportunities.
我們非常了解利潤,從利潤的角度來看,它們本質上都為機會創造了灰色地帶。
I mean, I think they are greatly accretive to our we are today and especially to the combustibles.
我的意思是,我認為它們對我們今天的發展,特別是對可燃物,具有很大的增值作用。
Second thing is, and I think we will resume a little bit more operators or maybe the more to this at our Cagney conference, our target for the presentations, but from the user's perspective, is actually pretty nice economic proposition because we essentially down leveraging all the investments for the user acquisitions, et cetera.
第二件事是,我認為我們將在 Cagney 會議上恢復更多的運營商,或者更多地恢復這一點,這是我們演示的目標,但從用戶的角度來看,這實際上是非常好的經濟主張,因為我們基本上利用了所有投資來獲取用戶等等。
And you know, one of the category obviously takes the burden off of acquiring the user, but all the other two product categories actually very nicely benefit from the uptake.
你知道,其中一個類別顯然減輕了獲取用戶的負擔,但其他兩個產品類別實際上都從這種增長中受益匪淺。
So you will hear from us more and more talking, obviously, we'll give you the granularity about the heat-not-burn, the Bay bonanza.
因此,您將會聽到我們越來越多地談論,顯然,我們將為您提供有關加熱不燃燒海灣富礦的詳細資訊。
And but I think in the next few years, the focus will be more and more turning into a total of small Cree rather than just the individual because there's also some color reflects the the user directions we use our consumer dynamics.
但我認為在接下來的幾年裡,焦點將越來越多地轉向小型 Cree 的總體,而不僅僅是單個,因為有些顏色反映了我們使用的消費者動態的用戶方向。
Shane - Analyst
Shane - Analyst
Thanks very much.
非常感謝。
Emmanuel Babeau - Chief Financial Officer
Emmanuel Babeau - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you.
謝謝。
I'm showing no further questions at this time.
我目前沒有其他問題。
I would like to turn it back to Jacek Olczak for closing remarks.
我想請雅采克‧奧爾恰克 (Jacek Olczak) 作最後發言。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Jacek Olczak - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jacek Olczak - Chief Executive Officer, Director
And before closing our call, I'd like to remind you that as I mentioned, we will be presenting at the Cagney conference on February 19, and we hope you'll be able to pay us either in person or virtually.
在結束通話之前,我想提醒您,正如我所提到的,我們將於 2 月 19 日出席 Cagney 會議,我們希望您能夠親自或透過虛擬方式向我們付款。
Thank you again for joining us today.
再次感謝您今天的參與。
If you have any follow-up questions, please contact the Investor Relations team and have a great day.
如果您有任何後續問題,請聯絡投資者關係團隊,祝您有個愉快的一天。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you, speakers.
謝謝各位發言者。
This concludes today's conference call.
今天的電話會議到此結束。
Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.
感謝您的參與,您現在可以斷開連接。