菲利普莫里斯國際 (PM) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Philip Morris International 2025 third-quarter results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加菲利普莫里斯國際公司2025年第三季業績電話會議。（操作人員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I'd now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, James Bushnell, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我謹將會議交給今天的主講人，投資人關係副總裁詹姆斯‧布希內爾先生。請繼續。

Welcome. Thank you for joining us. Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2025 third-quarter results. The press release is available on our website at pmi.com.

歡迎。感謝您的參與。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含有關我們 2025 年第三季業績的詳細資訊。新聞稿可在我們的網站 pmi.com 上查閱。

A glossary of terms, including the definition for smoke-free products as well as adjustments, other calculations and reconciliations to the most directly comparable US GAAP measures for non-GAAP financial measures cited in this presentation are available in Exhibit 99.2 to the Form 8-K dated October 21, 2025, and on our Investor Relations website.

本簡報中引用的非GAAP財務指標的術語表（包括無菸產品的定義以及調整、其他計算和與最直接可比較的美國GAAP指標的調節）可在2025年10月21日提交的8-K表格附件99.2以及我們的投資者關係網站上查閱。

Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results. I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements.

今天的演講包含對未來業績的前瞻性陳述和預測。請各位注意今天簡報和新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明和警示性聲明揭露，以了解可能導致實際結果與預測或前瞻性聲明有重大差異的各種因素。

I'm joined today by Emmanuel Babeau, Chief Financial Officer. Over to you, Emmanuel.

今天和我一起的是財務長伊曼紐爾·巴博。接下來就交給你了，伊曼紐。

Thank you, James, and welcome, everyone. Following an excellent first half, we delivered very strong results in Q3. We are especially pleased with the performance of our global smoke-free business, with outstanding volume growth for all three of our flagship brands: IQOS, ZYN and VEEV, which together outgrew the global smoke-free industry by a clear margin on year-to-date IMS.

謝謝你，詹姆斯，也歡迎各位。繼上半年表現出色之後，我們在第三季取得了非常強勁的業績。我們尤其對全球無菸業務的表現感到滿意，旗下三大旗艦品牌 IQOS、ZYN 和 VEEV 的銷量均實現了顯著增長，年初至今的 IMS 數據顯示，這三大品牌合計銷量明顯高於全球無菸行業平均水平。

Continued double-digit smoke-free top-line momentum and further scale and cost benefits enable us to achieve more than $3 billion in quarterly smoke-free gross profit for the first time, and an adjusted group operating income margin of over 43%, the highest in almost four years.

無菸產品營收持續保持兩位數成長勢頭，規模和成本優勢進一步擴大，使我們首次實現了季度無菸毛利潤超過 30 億美元，調整後的集團營業利潤率超過 43%，為近四年來的最高水平。

This drove plus 17% growth in adjusted diluted earnings per share to a record $2.24. These impressive results were also delivered in a quarter with elevated commercial spending as we invest in the future growth of our brands.

這推動調整後稀釋每股盈餘成長17%，達到創紀錄的2.24美元。同時，由於我們投資於旗下品牌的未來成長，本季商業支出也大幅增加，但我們依然取得了這些令人矚目的業績。

Our growth investments include geographic expansion and our smoke-free products are now commercialized in 100 markets, including the launch of IQOS in Taiwan this month. We are increasingly deploying our multi-category strategy to enhance growth with all smoke-free brands now commercialized together in 25 markets.

我們的成長投資包括地理擴張，我們的無菸產品目前已在 100 個市場商業化，包括本月在台灣推出 IQOS。我們正日益運用多品類策略來促進成長，目前所有無菸品牌已在 25 個市場同時商業化。

IQOS delivered excellent performance, including a very strong gross margin contribution, with Q3 HTU adjusted in-market sales growth of plus 9% against a high prior year comparison, and plus 15.5% heated tobacco unit shipment growth. This reflects continued strong momentum in Europe, Japan and global markets.

IQOS 表現優異，毛利率貢獻非常強勁，第三季 HTU 調整後市場銷售額年增 9%，高於去年同期水平，加熱菸草出貨量年增 15.5%。這反映了歐洲、日本和全球市場持續強勁的成長動能。

The relaunch of ZYN's commercial activities supported a significant Q3 acceleration in US offtake growth to plus 39%, as estimated by Nielsen. Enhanced marketing and promotional intensity supported increased trial among legal age nicotine users, with promising level of repurchase intent. Driven by the strong performance in the fast-growing nicotine pouch category, US shipments grew by plus 37% to 205 million cans, ahead of expectation. International can volumes increased by plus 27% or by over plus 100%, excluding Nordic country.

根據尼爾森估計，ZYN商業活動的重啟推動美國第三季銷售成長顯著加快，達到39%。加強行銷和推廣力度，提高了法定年齡尼古丁使用者的試用率，並展現出良好的複購意願。受快速成長的尼古丁袋品類​​強勁表現的推動，美國出貨量成長了 37%，達到 2.05 億罐，超出預期。國際罐頭銷售成長了 27% 或超過 100%（不包括北歐國家）。

In e-vapor, strong VEEV momentum saw total shipments more than doubling on a year-to-date basis. VEEV is now the number one closed pod brand in eight markets, with notably strong performances in Germany, Romania and Greece. Combustibles delivered a good Q3 with better-than-expected volumes in both Turkey and Egypt, combining with further strong pricing to deliver a robust top and bottom-line performance.

在電子煙領域，強勁的電子煙市場勢頭使得今年迄今的總出貨量增加了一倍以上。VEEV 目前已成為八個市場排名第一的封閉式電子煙品牌，尤其在德國、羅馬尼亞和希臘表現強勁。可燃物業務第三季表現良好，土耳其和埃及的銷售量均超出預期，加上強勁的價格，實現了穩健的營收和利潤成長。

Our Q3 performance reflects our position as the global category leader, with the ability to drive strong growth and prioritize resources to invest significantly in our leading brands. The increasing overall profitability of our smoke-free business, coupled with cost efficiency measures and combustible resilience, places us well on track for another year of double-digit adjusted operating income and earnings per share growth in currency-neutral terms, and even stronger dollar growth at prevailing exchange rates.

第三季業績反映了我們作為全球品類領導者的地位，我們有能力推動強勁成長，並優先投入資源對我們的領先品牌進行大量投資。我們無菸業務整體獲利能力的不斷提高，加上成本效益措施和可燃物應對能力的增強，使我們有望在固定匯率下實現又一年兩位數的調整後營業收入和每股收益增長，在當前匯率下，美元增長甚至會更加強勁。

Turning to the headline financials for Q3. Positive shipment volumes, strong smoke-free category mix and pricing resulted in organic top-line growth of plus 5.9% or approximately plus 7.3%, excluding the Indonesia technical impact explained earlier this year, within the high end of our plus 6% to plus 8% midterm growth algorithm.

接下來來看第三季的主要財務數據。積極的出貨量、強勁的無菸類別組合和定價帶來了有機營收成長 5.9% 或約 7.3%（不包括今年稍早解釋的印尼技術性影響），處於我們 6% 至 8% 中期成長演算法的高端。

Adjusted OI grew by plus 7.5% organically and plus 12.4% in dollar terms to $4.7 billion, with increasing profitability across smoke-free and combustibles, enabling good, adjusted OI margin expansion of plus 120 basis points.

經調整的營業收入有機成長 7.5%，以美元計算成長 12.4%，達到 47 億美元，無菸和可燃產品的獲利能力不斷提高，使得經調整的營業收入利潤率實現了 120 個基點的良好擴張。

Adjusted diluted EPS of $2.24 reflect adjusted net income of $3.5 billion and growth of plus 17.3%, including a currency tailwind of $0.08, which includes around $0.03 of favorable transactional impact in the quarter. This better-than-expected delivery reflects the strength of our financial model, with both IQOS and ZYN performing at the high end of our expectation, further supported by the resilience of combustible and a more favorable tax rate.

經過調整後的稀釋每股收益為 2.24 美元，反映了經調整後的淨收入 35 億美元，成長 17.3%，其中包括 0.08 美元的匯率利好，以及本季約 0.03 美元的有利交易影響。這次交付成果好於預期，反映了我們財務模型的實力，IQOS 和 ZYN 的表現都達到了我們預期的高端水平，這進一步得益於可燃物的韌性和更有利的稅率。

Our progress on a year-to-date basis was outstanding, with comparable growth above our midterm targets on all metrics. Organic net revenue growth of plus 7.5%, or around plus 9%, excluding the Indonesia technical impact, was driven by the same factor as the quarter.

今年迄今為止，我們的進展非常出色，所有指標均實現了與中期目標相當的成長。有機淨收入成長 7.5%，若不計入印尼的技術性影響，則約為 9%，其驅動因素與本季相同。

Adjusted operating income grew by plus 12.5% organically and close to plus 14% in dollar terms to $12.7 billion, enabling EPS growth of plus 16%, both including and excluding currency impact. Our year-to-date adjusted effective tax rate was 1% lower than our forecast of around 22% rate for the year, with a higher rate expected in Q4.

經調整後的營業收入有機成長 12.5%，以美元計算成長近 14%，達到 127 億美元，使得每股收益成長 16%（無論是否計入匯率影響）。今年迄今的調整後實際稅率比我們預測的全年約 22% 的稅率低 1%，預計第四季稅率會更高。

Turning to shipment volumes, where we again delivered positive growth of plus 0.7% in Q3 or plus 1.8% on a year-to-date basis. Q3 smoke-free volume growth of plus 16.6% was underpinned by the strong fundamentals of IQOS, where HTU shipments grew plus 15.5% to 41 billion units, above our prior expectation even when excluding a shipment timing benefit of around 1 billion units.

再來看出貨量，第三季我們再次實現了正成長，成長了 0.7%，年初至今成長了 1.8%。第三季無菸產品銷售成長 16.6%，這主要得益於 IQOS 的強勁基本面，其中 HTU 出貨量成長 15.5% 至 410 億支，即使不計入約 10 億支的出貨時間優勢，也高於我們先前的預期。

On a year-to-date basis, HTU shipment grew plus 12%. The excellent volume trajectory of both ZYN and VEEV was again accretive to smoke-free product growth in both Q3 and year-to-date, notably including US ZYN. Cigarette volumes declined by 3.2% in Q3, close to the more favorable end of our 3% to 4% forecast decline for H2, and reflecting better-than-expected dynamics in Turkey and Egypt.

今年迄今為止，HTU 出貨量增加了 12%。ZYN 和 VEEV 的出色銷售走勢再次促進了第三季和今年迄今無菸產品的成長，尤其包括美國 ZYN。第三季捲菸銷售量下降了 3.2%，接近我們預測的下半年下降 3% 至 4% 的較為樂觀的區間，反映出土耳其和埃及的市場動態優於預期。

Turning to Q3 net revenues in more detail. Growth of plus 7.3%, excluding the technical Indonesia impact, reflects the strong smoke-free performance described, alongside robust pricing. Total pricing contributed plus 3.1 points, with convertible pricing of over plus 8% and a positive IQOS HTU variance, partly offset by the impact of ZYN relaunch promotion in the US. The positive mix impact from smoke-free growth drove a further plus 4.7 points.

接下來詳細分析第三季淨收入。不計印尼技術因素的影響，成長7.3%，反映了無菸產品的強勁表現以及穩健的定價。總定價貢獻了 3.1 個百分點，可轉換定價貢獻了 8% 以上，IQOS HTU 差異為正，部分被美國 ZYN 重新上市促銷活動的影響所抵銷。無菸成長帶來的正面組合效應推動了經濟成長進一步上升 4.7 個百分點。

Combustible geographic mix and other factors had an unfavorable impact of 1.2 points. Currency and scope effect had a positive impact of plus 3.5 points. The same dynamic drove strong year-to-date top-line growth as our three pillars of growth, volumes, pricing, and mix continue to deliver sustainably.

可燃物地理組合和其他因素產生了1.2個百分點的不利影響。貨幣和範圍效應產生了正面影響，加分 3.5 分。同樣的動力推動了今年迄今為止強勁的營收成長，因為我們的三大成長支柱——銷售、定價和產品組合——繼續保持可持續的成長動能。

Looking at the Q3 performance by category, both smoke-free and combustibles delivered strong gross margin expansion. Q3 smoke-free net revenues grew organically by plus 13.9% and gross profit by plus 14.8%, including the short-term impact of heightened US promotions.

從第三季各類別業績來看，無菸產品和可燃產品均實現了強勁的毛利率成長。第三季無菸業務淨收入有機成長 13.9%，毛利潤有機成長 14.8%，其中包括美國促銷力度加大帶來的短期影響。

Gross margin expanded by plus 60 basis points to 70% in Q3, exceeding combustible by 3.5 points at the current category and geographic mix. This performance was powered by IQOS, with a combination of strong volumes, pricing scale and cost efficiency outweighing the dilutive impact of higher device sales in the quarter.

第三季毛利率成長 60 個基點至 70%，在目前品類和地理組合下比可燃物毛利率高出 3.5 個百分點。這項業績主要得益於 IQOS，其強勁的銷售量、定價規模和成本效益抵消了本季設備銷售成長帶來的稀釋影響。

While combustible volumes declined by 3%, the business delivered another strong quarter, with organic net revenue growth of plus 1% or around plus 3%, excluding the technical impact in Indonesia, and gross profit growing strongly by plus 4.8%.

儘管可燃物銷量下降了 3%，但該業務又迎來了一個強勁的季度，有機淨收入增長了 1% 或約 3%（不包括印尼的技術影響），毛利潤也強勁增長了 4.8%。

This performance epitomized the continued resilience of our combustible business model with a combination of low single-digit volume decline, robust pricing and efficiency driving top line and gross profit growth over time. We are well on track to deliver our target of combustible gross margin expansion organically and in dollar terms for the year.

這項業績充分體現了我們充滿活力的商業模式的持續韌性，銷量僅出現個位數下滑，但憑藉著穩健的定價和效率，隨著時間的推移，營收和毛利持續增長。我們預計今年以有機成長和美元計價的可燃物毛利率成長目標。

The combination of sustained smoke-free momentum and combustible resilience drove plus 170 basis points of gross margin expansion overall to reach 67.9%, a record quarterly level since the pandemic recovery of 2021.

持續的無菸氣勢頭和可燃物韌性相結合，推動毛利率整體成長 170 個基點，達到 67.9%，創下自 2021 年疫情復甦以來的季度紀錄。

Our year-to-date performance was outstanding, with the accretive impact of smoke-free growth clearly evident. Smoke-free gross margin expanded by plus 360 basis points, with IQOS, again a significant contributor, in addition to ZYN's superior US margin and a growing contribution from VEEV. Combined with strong combustible performance, we delivered plus 260 basis points of gross margin expansion for total PMI.

今年迄今為止，我們的業績非常出色，無菸成長帶來的累積效應顯而易見。無菸產品毛利率成長了 360 個基點，IQOS 再次成為主要貢獻者，此外，ZYN 在美國的毛利率較高，VEEV 的貢獻也不斷增加。結合強勁的燃燒性能，我們為 PMI 整體實現了 260 個基點的毛利率成長。

Moving down the P&L to OI margin. We delivered a plus 60 basis points of organic expansion in Q3 or plus 120 basis points in dollar terms to reach an excellent 43.1%. This reflects the plus 170 basis point gross margin expansion I just covered, partly offset by elevated SG&A costs as flagged last quarter. This includes a substantial planned commercial investment in international markets beyond the expansion and brand equity of IQOS, ZYN and VEEV.

將損益表利潤率調整為營業利益率。第三季度，我們的自然成長率提高了 60 個基點，以美元計算提高了 120 個基點，達到了優異的 43.1%。這反映了我剛才提到的毛利率成長 170 個基點，但部分被上個季度指出的銷售、一般及行政費用上升所抵銷。這包括在國際市場上進行大量計劃中的商業投資，以擴大 IQOS、ZYN 和 VEEV 的規模和品牌價值。

It also includes stepped-up marketing and brand investment behind ZYN in the US, following the return to full availability and further investment in our US capabilities to support the future growth of ZYN and IQOS. We anticipate SG&A costs will increase slightly more than underlying net revenue for the year, excluding currency, reflecting this strong reinvestment. Ongoing cost efficiency in both cost of goods sold and SG&A partially offset increased investments, and we remain well on track to deliver our planned $2 billion cost-saving objective over 2024, 2026.

此外，隨著 ZYN 在美國全面恢復供應，該公司還將增加對 ZYN 在美國的營銷和品牌投入，並進一步投資於我們在美國的能力，以支持 ZYN 和 IQOS 的未來成長。我們預計，不計匯率因素，本年度銷售、管理及行政費用將略高於基本淨收入的成長幅度，這反映了強勁的再投資。銷售成本和銷售、管理及行政費用的持續成本效益部分抵銷了增加的投資，我們仍有望在 2024 年和 2026 年實現計畫中的 20 億美元成本節約目標。

Focusing now on our global smoke-free business, our portfolio is outpacing the industry in the 100 markets where we are present, with over plus 12% estimated IMS volume growth year-to-date compared to less than 10% for the industry. We estimate our volume share of smoke-free product in this market is around 60%, and our year-to-date share of category growth is more than 10 points higher than this. With our portfolio of leading premium brands, our share of smoke-free in value term is notably higher than this 60%.

現在，我們將重點放在全球無菸業務上，在我們已開展業務的 100 個市場中，我們的產品組合增長速度超過了行業平均水平，預計今年迄今為止 IMS 銷量增長超過 12%，而行業平均水平不到 10%。我們估計，我們在該市場中無菸產品的銷售份額約為 60%，而我們今年迄今為止的品類增長份額比這高出 10 個百分點以上。憑藉我們領先的高端品牌組合，我們在無菸產品價值方面的份額明顯高於 60%。

Our multi-category portfolio is a key strength as we leverage the equity and reach of IQOS to convert more legal age nicotine users. IQOS generated more than $11 billion in net revenue last year, and its 75%-plus share of the growing global tobacco category remained stable despite intensifying competition.

我們多元化的產品組合是一項關鍵優勢，因為我們可以利用 IQOS 的品牌價值和覆蓋範圍來吸引更多達到法定年齡的尼古丁用戶。IQOS去年的淨收入超過110億美元，儘管競爭加劇，但在全球不斷增長的菸草類別中75%以上的份額仍保持穩定。

ZYN, while still small in comparison, is growing notably faster than the category as we benefit from a strong leadership position in the US and rapid progress in international market, supported by a differentiated and long-term oriented portfolio. The same is true in e-vapor, where brand loyalty and repeat purchase for VEEV is accelerating growth.

ZYN 雖然規模仍然較小，但其成長速度明顯快於同類產品，這得益於我們在美國強大的領導地位和國際市場的快速發展，以及差異化和長期導向的產品組合的支持。電子煙領域的情況也是如此，VEEV 的品牌忠誠度和重複購買率正在加速其成長。

IQOS delivered a strong Q3, with plus 9% adjusted IMS growth against a strong prior year comparison, resulting in plus 10% growth year-to-date. As flagged last quarter, we expect double-digit growth in H2 and plus 10% to plus 12% growth in adjusted IMS for the year, including an acceleration in the fourth quarter.

IQOS 第三季表現強勁，經調整後的 IMS 成長率為 9%，與去年同期相比大幅成長，使得今年迄今的成長率達到 10%。正如上個季度所預測的那樣，我們預計下半年將達到兩位數成長，全年經調整後的IMS將成長10%至12%，其中第四季將加速成長。

This is supported by continuous innovation on devices and consumables, including a high focus on brand engagement, with an example being the rollout of the limited edition Seletti device in Japan, followed by other markets as part of our Curious X campaign.

這得益於設備和耗材的持續創新，包括對品牌互動的高度重視，例如在日本推出限量版 Seletti 設備，隨後作為我們 Curious X 活動的一部分推廣到其他市場。

Turning to ZYN. Can shipment grew by plus 36% on a global basis, with a presence now in 47 markets. This includes the Q3 launch in Spain as well as the rollout of small-scale pilot in Japan with ZYN by IQOS building on the strong brand equity and commercial presence of the world's leading smoke-free brand. In the US, can shipment grew by plus 37% with a strong acceleration in offtake, which I will come back to. Outside the US, can shipment grew plus 27% or over plus 100% excluding the Nordics, with rapid growth from the UK, Pakistan, Poland and South Africa.

轉向 ZYN。全球罐裝產品出貨量成長了 36%，目前已進入 47 個市場。這包括第三季在西班牙的上市，以及在日本小規模試點推出 ZYN by IQOS，這建立在世界領先的無菸品牌強大的品牌資產和商業影響力之上。在美國，罐頭出貨量成長了 37%，銷量也大幅成長，這一點我稍後會再談到。除美國以外，罐頭出貨量增加了 27% 或超過 100%（不包括北歐地區），其中英國、巴基斯坦、波蘭和南非的成長尤為迅速。

We continue to enrich our ZYN product offering, including the progressive rollout of lower strength variant as part of our dry-led portfolio, where we observe a substantial increase in repeat purchase for legal-age smokers new to the oral category versus higher strength product.

我們不斷豐富 ZYN 產品系列，包括逐步推出低強度版本，作為我們以乾吸為主的產品組合的一部分。我們觀察到，對於剛接觸口服類產品的合法年齡吸菸者來說，與高強度產品相比，低強度版本的重複購買率大幅提高。

Moving to e-vapor. This strong momentum continued, with the brand now holding the number one closed pod position in eight markets. We delivered excellent Q3 volume growth of plus 91% despite unfavorable regulatory development in Poland. Strong year-to-date volume momentum, including an improved pods-to-kit ratio driven by repeat purchase, drove increasing operating leverage and scale benefit, enhancing profitability.

改用電子煙。這一強勁勢頭仍在持續，該品牌目前在八個市場佔據了封閉式電子煙市場的第一名位置。儘管波蘭的監管情況不利，但我們第三季的銷量仍實現了91%的優異成長。今年迄今強勁的銷售成長勢頭，包括因重複購買而提高的煙彈與套裝比率，推動了營運槓桿和規模效益的提升，從而提高了盈利能力。

Reviewing now by geography, Europe is the most developed multicategory region, with markets such as Italy, Greece, Spain and Romania posting excellent growth within all three smoke-free categories. IQOS continued its strong growth trajectory in Q3, with adjusted IMS up plus 7.3% against a tougher comparison, notably driven by Italy and supported by innovation on new TEREA variants and LEVIA capsules.

現在按地理位置來看，歐洲是多品類市場最發達的地區，義大利、希臘、西班牙和羅馬尼亞等市場在所有三個無菸品類中都取得了優異的成長。IQOS 在第三季繼續保持強勁的成長勢頭，經調整後的 IMS 成長了 7.3%，儘管基數較高，但主要得益於義大利市場的推動，以及 TEREA 新型號和 LEVIA 膠囊的創新。

PMI HTU shares of the combined cigarette and HTU industry increased by plus 1.2 points to 10.7%, with key cities such as Munich, Rome, and Madrid, all posting very strong growth. We expect a nice acceleration in adjusted IMS growth in Q4. After numerous launches and expansions across the region in the last one to two years, ZYN's excellent early traction continued with share gains across markets, including Poland, Switzerland, Greece and the UK. Within e-vapor, the consumer shift to close pod continue to underpin growth. These volumes doubled, with the brand now holding the number one pod position in seven European markets.

PMI HTU 在捲菸和 HTU 產業中的份額上升了 1.2 個百分點，達到 10.7%，其中慕尼黑、羅馬和馬德里等主要城市均實現了非常強勁的成長。我們預計第四季經調整後的IMS成長將出現良好加速。在過去一兩年裡，ZYN 在該地區進行了許多產品發布和擴張，其早期的良好勢頭得以延續，在包括波蘭、瑞士、希臘和英國在內的各個市場都獲得了市場份額。在電子煙領域，消費者轉向封閉式煙彈的趨勢持續支撐著成長。這些銷量翻了一番，該品牌目前在七個歐洲市場佔據了第一的咖啡膠囊市場地位。

In Japan, IQOS continues to grow very robustly, with Q3 adjusted IMS growth of plus 6% against a strong plus 14% in Q3 last year and plus 7.6% on a year-to-date basis. This primarily reflects the category growth rate, with 12-month segment share stable at around 70%, notwithstanding a very significant step-up in competitive commercial investment and intensity, and, as in similar periods in the past, some increased trial of discounted competitor product.

在日本，IQOS 持續保持強勁成長勢頭，第三季經調整後的 IMS 成長率為 6%，而去年第三季為強勁的 14%，年初至今為 7.6%。這主要反映了該品類的成長率，儘管競爭性商業投資和強度大幅增加，而且與過去類似時期一樣，消費者對折扣競爭對手產品的試用有所增加，但 12 個月的細分市場份額仍穩定在 70% 左右。

As mentioned last quarter, IQOS delivered truly exceptional growth in 2023 and 2024, especially considering the size of the category is approaching half of total nicotine offtake volume nationally, and more than half in 14 of the top 20 cities. The growth that our business has delivered so far in '25 is essentially in line with the trend in the years prior.

正如上個季度所提到的，IQOS 在 2023 年和 2024 年實現了真正非凡的增長，尤其考慮到該品類的規模已接近全國尼古丁總消費量的一半，並且在排名前 20 的城市中的 14 個城市中超過一半。2025年至今，我們業務的成長與前幾年的趨勢基本一致。

Q3 adjusted IQOS HTU share increased 1.8 points year-on-year to reach 31.7% as we continue to innovate on IQOS and plant the first seeds of multi-category deployment, with the introduction of ZYN in select channels and location.

第三季經過調整後，IQOS HTU 份額年增 1.8 個百分點，達到 31.7%，這得益於我們不斷在 IQOS 上進行創新，並在特定管道和地點推出 ZYN，播下了多品類部署的種子。

Turning now to the US, which made up around 7% of our global net revenues and 9% of our adjusted operating income year-to-date. Q3 ZYN volume performance was remarkable, with an acceleration to plus 39% of the growth according to Nielsen, the fastest growth in the last five quarters. As the fastest-growing category in the world's highest value nicotine market, excluding China, we are naturally investing in ZYN and the category's future growth, where the brands continue to hold over 60% share of volume and two-thirds of value.

現在來看看美國市場，美國市場約占我們全球淨收入的 7% 和今年迄今調整後營業收入的 9%。第三季 ZYN 的銷售表現非常出色，根據尼爾森的數據，銷售成長加速至 39%，是近五個季度以來最快的成長速度。作為全球價值最高的尼古丁市場（不包括中國）中成長最快的品類，我們自然會對 ZYN 和該品類的未來成長進行投資，該品類的品牌繼續佔據 60% 以上的銷售份額和三分之二的價值份額。

After posting plus 31% offtake growth across July and August according to Nielsen, our Q3 growth was amplified in September to plus 58% by the reacceleration of marketing and promotional support after several quarters of supplied constraint. With the growth of ZYN now close to that of the industry, ZYN captured the majority of Q3 category growth in both volume and value terms despite a markedly lower average price for the quarter.

根據尼爾森的數據，我們在 7 月和 8 月實現了 31% 的銷售成長，而由於在經歷了幾個季度的供應限制後，行銷和促銷支援的重新加速，我們的第三季成長在 9 月進一步擴大到 58%。ZYN 的成長速度現在已接近行業平均水平，儘管第三季度平均價格明顯較低，但 ZYN 在銷售和價值方面仍佔據了第三季度該類別增長的大部分份額。

Indeed, ZYN was the fastest-growing brand by dollar retail value across all categories in the US convenience channel on both the Q3 and year-to-date basis as measured by Nielsen, with PMI US also the same on a manufacturer level as shown here. This emphasized the strength and power of ZYN's franchise with both our retail partners and legal age nicotine users, providing an excellent platform from which to drive further growth.

事實上，根據尼爾森的統計，ZYN 在美國便利商店通路所有品類中，第三季和年初至今的零售額成長速度均位居各品類之首，而 PMI US 在製造商層面也同樣如此，如本文所示。這凸顯了 ZYN 品牌在零售合作夥伴和合法年齡尼古丁用戶中的強大實力，為進一步發展提供了絕佳的平台。

As mentioned, we recently implemented a strong step-up in overall marketing and brand-building activities to support ZYN's presence at point of sale, brand visibility, brand equity and relative price positioning. In Q3, this had a notable skew to promotions. In the supply constrained first half of 2025, only around 20% of ZYN volumes were sold on promotion according to Nielsen, with competitors closer to 50%.

如前所述，我們最近大力加強了整體行銷和品牌建立活動，以支持 ZYN 在銷售點的影響力、品牌知名度、品牌資產和相對價格定位。第三季度，促銷活動明顯占主導地位。根據尼爾森的數據，在供應受限的 2025 年上半年，ZYN 的銷量中只有約 20% 是透過促銷售出的，而競爭對手的比例接近 50%。

With our return to full commercial activity, we expect to maintain a higher level of promotion than H1 as we continue to adapt our marketing mix to provide the appropriate level of support for the brand and the growth of the category. We naturally intend to maintain a clear premium positioning for ZYN as the leading premium brand. We also look forward to reporting back on future commercial initiatives, with one example being limited edition variants based on our authorized product range.

隨著我們恢復全面商業活動，我們預計將保持比上半年更高的促銷水平，因為我們將繼續調整行銷組合，為品牌和品類成長提供適當的支援。我們自然希望保持 ZYN 作為領先高端品牌的明確高端定位。我們也期待向大家報告未來的商業計劃，例如基於我們授權產品系列的限量版產品。

As part of our re-intensified activities, we also decided to launch a special September promotion to mark ZYN's return to full availability. This offered a free ZYN can for legal-age consumer purchasing other nicotine products in select location and was designed to target legal-age smoker and other nicotine users to increase awareness and trial.

作為我們重新加強活動的一部分，我們還決定推出一項特別的九月促銷活動，以慶祝 ZYN 全面恢復供應。此舉旨在向在指定地點購買其他尼古丁產品的法定年齡消費者免費贈送一罐 ZYN，目標是法定年齡的吸煙者和其他尼古丁使用者，以提高人們對該產品的認識和嘗試。

This is in line with ZYN's mission to grow the nicotine pouch category over the coming years, and we are very happy with the result. The vast majority of those accessing the offer were smokers or vapors with improved brand perception and promising level of repurchase intent. This offer accounted for a single-digit percentage of our Q3 shipment.

這與 ZYN 在未來幾年發展尼古丁袋類別的目標相符，我們對結果非常滿意。絕大多數參與此活動的人都是吸菸者或電子煙使用者，他們對品牌的認知度有所提高，並且有很高的再次購買意願。此優惠活動僅占我們第三季出貨量的個位數百分比。

Essentially, all the promotional cost of activating the special free can offer, including retail incentives, were booked in net revenues in the quarter. This largely explains the lower Americas top line when volumes were growing. With accumulation of relaunch activities, this was an exceptional quarter of investment, with around $100 million of Q3 specific investment and reduced revenues linked to restarting our commercial engine.

基本上，啟動免費罐裝飲料特別優惠的所有促銷成本，包括零售獎勵，都已計入該季度的淨收入。這在很大程度上解釋了為什麼在銷售成長的情況下，美洲地區的營收卻較低。由於重啟活動的累積，本季投資金額異常高，第三季專款投資額約 1 億美元，與重啟商業引擎相關的營收減少。

The US nicotine pouch category has been growing at more than 40% over the last 18 months and today represents a high single-digit percentage of the nicotine market by volume. We believe it has the capacity to become one of the largest category in the US over the coming years, where we estimate cigarettes are more than 40% of the market, and e-vapor in the region of 30%.

過去 18 個月，美國尼古丁袋類別的成長率超過 40%，如今已佔尼古丁市場銷售量的個位數百分比。我們相信，在未來幾年內，電子煙可望成為美國最大的類別之一。據估計，目前香菸在美國的市佔率超過 40%，電子煙的市佔率約為 30%。

ZYN is America's number one smoke-free brand by value with a franchise which is second to none. We are investing to support ZYN's momentum, both within and outside the US. We also hope for a positive outcome from FDA's recently announced plan to streamline the review process for nicotine pouches, which should help clarify and level the playing field. As a reminder, the FDA has only authorized 20 nicotine pouch product to date, all of which are under the ZYN brand, and we expect the TPSAC hearing from ZYN's MRTP application in the first quarter of 2026.

ZYN是美國性價比最高的無菸品牌，其特許經營模式也首屈一指。我們正在進行投資，以支持 ZYN 在美國境內外的發展勢頭。我們也希望 FDA 最近宣布的簡化尼古丁袋審查流程的計劃能夠取得積極成果，這應該有助於澄清和創造公平的競爭環境。提醒一下，FDA 迄今只批准了 20 種尼古丁袋產品，全部都是 ZYN 品牌的產品，我們預計 TPSAC 將在 2026 年第一季就 ZYN 的 MRTP 申請舉行聽證會。

Altogether, we expect ZYN will continue to be an important growth driver of PMI net revenue and operating income. While the absence of a full commercial program in the first half of this year drove an exceptional level of US profitability, we expect ZYN to continue delivering best-in-class margins within PMI.

總而言之，我們預計 ZYN 將繼續成為 PMI 淨收入和營業收入的重要成長驅動力。雖然今年上半年沒有完整的商業計劃，導緻美國盈利能力異常出色，但我們預計 ZYN 將繼續在 PMI 中提供一流的利潤率。

On a more short-term basis, we continue to expect H2 shipment volume growth broadly in line with offtake growth before channel inventory movement. We anticipate a 20 million to 30 million can inventory reduction in the coming months. This impact being effectively delayed from Q3, given strong September promotional activity.

從更短期的角度來看，我們仍然預計下半年出貨量成長將與通路庫存變動前的銷售成長大致持平。我們預計未來幾個月罐頭庫存將減少 2,000 萬至 3,000 萬罐。鑑於9月份強勁的促銷活動，這一影響實際上從第三季推遲到了第三季。

We also continue to await the FDA authorization of IQOS ILUMA, which represent, by far, the most successful product globally in switching cigarette user completely away from smoking. In the meantime, we are continuing with IQOS 3 pilots including the latest location of Jackson, Mississippi as we also await the renewal of our IQOS 3 MRTP, following the TPSAC meeting earlier this month.

我們仍在等待 FDA 對 IQOS ILUMA 的批准，該產品是迄今為止全球範圍內最成功的幫助吸菸者徹底戒菸的產品。同時，我們正在繼續進行 IQOS 3 試點項目，包括最新的密西西比州傑克遜試點項目，同時我們也在等待本月初 TPSAC 會議後 IQOS 3 MRTP 的續約。

Outside of the US, Japan, and Europe, all three of our smoke-free category are delivering dynamic growth, with Q3 shipments up plus 23% to over 12 billion units. This includes continued strong IQOS performance in South Korea, rapid ZYN growth in Pakistan and South Africa, and very dynamic multicategory growth in Global Travel Retail and Indonesia. We include further IQOS key city offtake shares in the appendix.

除美國、日本和歐洲以外，我們的三大無菸產品類別均實現了強勁成長，第三季出貨量成長 23%，超過 120 億件。這包括 IQOS 在韓國的持續強勁表現、ZYN 在巴基斯坦和南非的快速成長，以及全球旅遊零售和印尼非常活躍的多類別成長。我們在附錄中列出了更多 IQOS 主要城市的銷售份額。

Moving to combustibles. Our cigar portfolio continued to demonstrate its resilience, with a strong performance from Marlboro gaining plus 0.4 points to reach a historic high share of 10.9%. International category share declined in the quarter, largely driven by Turkey, following supply chain disruption earlier in the year. However, our share is recovering well sequentially, and was essentially stable year-to-date.

轉向可燃物。我們的雪茄產品組合持續展現出強大的韌性，其中萬寶路表現強勁，市佔率成長 0.4 個百分點，達到歷史新高 10.9%。由於今年稍早供應鏈中斷，受土耳其市場影響，國際品類市佔率在本季有所下降。然而，我們的市場份額正在逐步恢復，並且今年迄今為止基本上保持穩定。

Q3 pricing of plus 8.3% came in better than expected, with contribution from all regions and notably from Indonesia, Australia, Turkey, and Germany. While this was partially offset by unfavorable geographic mix, we now forecast full-year pricing a little above plus 7%, with a slowdown in Q3 as expected due to timing factors.

第三季定價上漲 8.3%，優於預期，所有地區都有貢獻，特別是印尼、澳洲、土耳其和德國。雖然不利的地域組合部分抵消了這一影響，但我們現在預測全年價格將略高於 7%，第三季度由於時間因素，價格增長將如預期般放緩。

Most importantly, and as covered earlier, our combustible business continues to deliver a very robust contribution, with close to plus 5% year-to-date gross profit growth. This is fully in line with our objective of maximizing value over time and supporting the growth of our smoke-free business.

最重要的是，正如前面提到的，我們的易燃品業務繼續做出非常強勁的貢獻，今年迄今的毛利成長接近 5%。這完全符合我們實現長期價值最大化和支持無菸業務成長的目標。

This brings me to our outlook for the full year. We are on track for a very strong performance with another year of double-digit growth in adjusted operating income and adjusted diluted earnings per share. This starts with shipments where we continue to target total PMI growth of around plus 1%; our fifth consecutive year of volume growth, including a cigarette decline of around 2% and smoke-free volume growth of plus 12% to plus 14%. Smoke-free shipment growth is more likely to be in the lower half of this range, factoring in the potential inventory adjustment for ZYN I described and expected IQOS HTU shipments of close to 38 billion units in Q4.

這就引出了我們對全年的展望。我們預計將取得非常強勁的業績，調整後營業收入和調整後稀釋每股收益將連續第二年實現兩位數成長。首先是出貨量，我們繼續以 PMI 總成長約 1% 為目標；這是我們連續第五年實現銷售成長，其中包括捲菸銷量下降約 2%，以及無菸產品銷量成長 12% 至 14%。考慮到 ZYN 的潛在庫存調整，無菸產品的出貨量成長更有可能處於該範圍的下半部。我描述並預計 IQOS HTU 在第四季的出貨量將接近 380 億台。

This Q4 HTU forecast includes modestly lower channel inventory and a reversal of around 2 billion units due to timing impact, with HTU shipment growth thus broadly in line with our plus 10% to plus 12% adjusted IMS growth forecast for 2025 overall.

第四季 HTU 預測包括通路庫存略有下降，以及由於時間影響導致的約 20 億台的銷量回落，因此 HTU 出貨量成長與我們對 2025 年整體 IMS 調整後成長 10% 至 12% 的預測基本一致。

We continue to forecast organic net revenue growth of plus 6% to plus 8%, driven by positive volumes, smoke-free mix and pricing. Consistent with smoke-free volumes and given the top-line impact of US investment, the lower half of this range is also more likely. Excluding the technical impact of Indonesia, our forecast growth would be at or above the high end of our three-year growth algorithm.

我們繼續預測，在銷售成長、無菸產品組合和價格上漲的推動下，有機淨收入將成長 6% 至 8%。與無菸消費量一致，考慮到美國投資的整體影響，該範圍的下半部也更有可能。排除印尼的技術影響，我們預測的成長將達到或超過我們三年成長演算法的高端水準。

We expect another year of double-digit organic operating income progression, where we now forecast plus 10% to plus 11.5% growth for the year, including the same factor as net revenues. We expect this growth to drive strong adjusted OI margin expansion to land firmly back above 40%. This above algorithm growth in a year of strong investment clearly demonstrate the dynamism of our global growth model.

我們預計今年的有機營業收入將再次達到兩位數成長，目前我們預測全年成長率將達到 10% 至 11.5%，其中包括與淨收入相同的成長因子。我們預計這一成長將推動經調整後的營業利潤率強勁擴張，並穩步回升至 40% 以上。上述演算法在強勁投資的年份裡實現了成長，這清楚地表明了我們全球成長模式的活力。

We are raising our adjusted diluted earnings per share forecast to the mid to upper end of our previous currency-neutral growth range at plus 12% to plus 13.5%, which translate into plus 13.5% to plus 15.1% in dollar term. This includes an estimated $0.10 currency tailwind, and we would expect a similar sized tailwind for 2026, all at prevailing exchange rates. The 2025 forecast includes an adjusted effective tax rate of around 22% for the year based on the latest assessment of tax dynamic and market mix.

我們將調整後的稀釋每股盈餘預測上調至先前以固定匯率計算的成長區間的中高端，即成長 12% 至 13.5%，以美元計算則為成長 13.5% 至 15.1%。這其中包括預計 0.10 美元的貨幣利好，我們預計 2026 年也將有類似規模的利好，所有這些都是在當前匯率下實現的。根據對稅收動態和市場組合的最新評估，2025 年的預測包括調整後的有效稅率約為 22%。

In Q4, we expect a continued strong performance from our smoke-free business, including an acceleration in IQOS adjusted in-market sales growth. In terms of financial performance, as expected, we anticipate a slower quarter given the dynamic I covered on shipments of IQOS and potentially ZYN, the timing of pricing and declining volume in combustible and a higher tax rate.

預計第四季度無菸業務將繼續保持強勁表現，包括 IQOS 調整後市場銷售成長加速。就財務表現而言，正如預期的那樣，鑑於我之前提到的 IQOS 和 ZYN 出貨量的動態、定價時機以及可燃物銷量的下降和更高的稅率，我們預計本季業績將放緩。

Taking these factors, continued brand investment and comparison effect into account, we forecast a slower quarter of top-line growth, single-digit organic OI growth, and up to 6% currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth.

考慮到這些因素、持續的品牌投資和比較效應，我們預測本季營收成長將放緩，有機營業收入成長將達到個位數，按匯率調整後的稀釋每股盈餘成長將達到 6%。

In addition, we are upgrading our full-year operating cash flow forecast to more than $11.5 billion at prevailing exchange rates and subject to year-end working capital requirements. This reflects strong full-year profit delivery and cash conversion and now includes a Q3 dividend payment from our deconsolidated Canadian affiliate.

此外，我們將全年經營現金流預測以現行匯率上調至超過 115 億美元，但需視年底營運資金需求而定。這反映了全年強勁的利潤和現金轉化，現在還包括我們已剝離合併報表的加拿大子公司的第三季股息支付。

In terms of our balance sheet, we continue to target further deleveraging in 2025 with Euro-dollar currency movement, of course, having a potential influence on our ultimate year-end leverage ratio given our Euro debt position. Importantly, we remain on track for our target ratio of around 2 times net debt to EBITDA by the end of 2026.

就我們的資產負債表而言，我們繼續以 2025 年進一步去槓桿化為目標，當然，鑑於我們的歐元債務狀況，歐元兌美元的匯率波動可能會對我們最終的年末槓桿率產生影響。重要的是，我們仍有望在 2026 年底前實現淨債務與 EBITDA 比率約為 2 倍的目標。

Given our strong year-to-date and expected full-year performance, we are well on track to exceed our 2024, 2026 CAGR targets, which already represent a best-in-class growth profile within consumer packaged goods. With such strong progress already delivered and an exciting growth outlook over the coming years, we look forward with confidence to 2026 and beyond.

鑑於我們今年迄今的強勁表現以及對全年業績的預期，我們預計將超額完成 2024 年和 2026 年的複合年增長率目標，這已經代表了消費品包裝行業中一流的增長水平。鑑於目前已取得的強勁進展以及未來幾年令人振奮的成長前景，我們對 2026 年及以後充滿信心。

In summary, our year-to-date performance reflects the strength and momentum of our global smoke-free business, combined with the resilience of combustible. Our smoke-free business is increasingly profitable, with IQOS and ZYN leading the way. We remain excited about our future growth potential as we continue to deploy our multi-category strategy and invest in our category leading premium brands.

總而言之，我們今年迄今的業績反映了我們全球無菸業務的實力和發展勢頭，以及可燃業務的韌性。我們的無菸業務利潤越來越高，其中 IQOS 和 ZYN 處於領先地位。我們將持續推行多品類策略，並投資於品類領先的高端品牌，因此我們對未來的成長潛力充滿信心。

Our financial model is built on strength across all categories, complemented by proactive measures on pricing and cost efficiencies. This drives our confidence in strong and sustainable adjusted diluted EPS growth in both currency neutral and dollar terms.

我們的財務模式建立在所有類別中的實力之上，並輔以積極的定價和成本效益措施。這增強了我們對以固定匯率和美元計價的經調整攤薄後每股收益強勁且可持續增長的信心。

Our focused capital allocation strategy allows us to not only reinvest at the optimal level to support and elevate our smoke-free portfolio, but also to reward our shareholders. In September, we raised our dividend for the 18th consecutive year to $5.88 per share, with growth of plus 8.9%, the largest increase since 2013, reflecting our strong year-to-date performance and confidence in our outlook. We look forward to further rewarding our shareholders as our transformation continues.

我們專注的資本配置策略不僅使我們能夠以最佳水準進行再投資，以支持和提升我們的無菸產品組合，而且還能回報我們的股東。9 月，我們連續第 18 年將股息提高至每股 5.88 美元，成長了 8.9%，這是自 2013 年以來最大的增幅，反映了我們今年迄今為止的強勁業績以及對前景的信心。隨著公司轉型升級，我們期待能為股東帶來更多回報。

Thank you, and we are now very happy to answer your questions.

謝謝，我們現在非常樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Eric Serotta, Morgan Stanley.

（操作說明）摩根士丹利 Eric Serotta。

Hoping to start off with ZYN. I believe previously, you said the goal there was to, in the short term, grow in line with the category. I presume that's in volume terms. Could you clarify that? And basically, with sort of the extraordinary promos of September having eased a bit in October, we've seen the scanner data at least week in in October, not all that surprising, but maybe a little bit surprising in magnitude. So I guess, how are things tracking in October versus plan?

希望先從 ZYN 開始。我相信你之前說過，短期目標是與產業發展一致。我猜這是按數量計算的。您能解釋一下嗎？基本上，隨著九月份的異常促銷活動在十月份有所緩和，我們看到十月份至少一周的掃描器數據，這並不令人意外，但其規模可能有點令人驚訝。所以我想問，10月的各項工作進度與計畫相比如何？

And then on the IQOS business, could you provide some additional color on the mismatch between HTU shipments and IMS? I know there was a pretty tough comp on the IMS side of close to 15%. But any additional color there would be helpful into what's driving the over-shipment in the quarter.

關於 IQOS 業務，您能否進一步說明 HTU 出貨量與 IMS 出貨量不符的原因？我知道IMS那邊競爭非常激烈，接近15%。但任何額外的細節資訊都將有助於了解本季超額出貨的原因。

Thank you, Eric. Good morning and Eric, thank you for your two questions. So I'm going to start with ZYN, and thank you, maybe, for allowing me to precise or repeat some of what I've been saying.

謝謝你，埃里克。早安，艾瑞克，謝謝你的兩個問題。那我就從 ZYN 開始吧，或許應該感謝你們允許我更詳細地闡述或重複我之前說過的一些內容。

Yeah, of course, ZYN is the arch leader of nicotine pouch in the US, more than 60% market share in volume, two thirds in value. It is our role, it is our mission to grow the category, to develop the category, to create the awareness of the category. And of course, as a leader, we will benefit from that. And as I flagged in my remarks, we see a tremendous potential for the category, which, over the last quarters, have been growing between 30% and 40%. And the dynamism is still there.

當然，ZYN 是美國尼古丁袋市場的領導企業，銷售佔比超過 60%，銷售額佔三分之二。我們的職責和使命是發展壯大這個品類，推動品類進步，提升人們對這個品類的認知。當然，身為領導者，我們也會從中受益。正如我在演講中提到的，我們看到了該類別的巨大潛力，在過去的幾個季度裡，該類別的成長率在 30% 到 40% 之間。而這種活力依然存在。

So indeed, with our special promotion, and I'm going to come back to this special promotion in a second, we've been further accelerating, I would say, the growth of the category. But the dynamism of the category is absolutely tremendous. And of course, we are very happy. As we said, we capture the majority of this growth, both in terms of volume and in terms of value.

所以，透過我們的特別促銷活動（我稍後會再談到這項特別促銷活動），我們確實進一步加速了該品類的成長。但這類別的活力絕對是巨大的。當然，我們非常高興。正如我們所說，無論從數量或價值來看，我們都佔據了這一增長的大部分份額。

I think what we've seen during this Q3, and that's the way I would summarize things is, on one side, a normalization that I'm going to explain. And on the other side, let's be clear, I think we wanted to have a kind of blast effect because we were back with full availability. And when the leader is back in full force, you just want to let it know. And that was a special promotion on the free can.

我認為我們在第三季看到的，也是我總結事情的方式，一方面是正常化，我將對此進行解釋。另一方面，需要明確的是，我認為我們想要產生一種爆炸性的效果，因為我們已經全面恢復了服務。當領導者重回巔峰時，你只想讓他知道。這是免費贈送罐裝飲料的特別促銷活動。

But first of all, let me comment on back to normal. I think people probably did not fully get it, but during a year of limitation in terms of availability for ZYN, we've been, I would say, flying at the level of profitability that was abnormal because the level of promotion was very low. We flagged the fact that in H1, level of promotion was around 20% on price, when the rest of the category and the standard of the category is more around 50%. It doesn't mean that we're going to go to 50%, but it's just to show the difference.

但首先，我想談談恢復正常這件事。我認為人們可能沒有完全理解，但在 ZYN 供應受限的一年裡，我們的獲利水準可以說是異常高的，因為促銷力度非常低。我們注意到，上半年價格促銷力道約為 20%，而同類產品及同類產品的標準價格促銷力度約為 50%。這並不意味著我們會達到 50%，只是為了說明其中的差異。

But if I look at actually Q3 '24, we were with a single-digit percentage of promotion. So almost no promotion. And what has been happening in Q3 is just now that we are back to full availability, we want, of course, to capture our fair share of the growth. We are a premium brand, we're still a premium brand.

但如果我看一下 2024 年第三季度，我們的晉升率只有個位數百分比。所以幾乎沒有宣傳。第三季的情況是，我們現在恢復了全面供貨，我們當然希望獲得我們應得的成長份額。我們是高端品牌，現在還是高端品牌。

But as I think Jacek flagged a few weeks ago, there was a big level of difference because of this low level of promotional activity and the very, I would say, aggressive discount activity from competition. And it was important for us to go to a more normal level of promotional activity, certainly not to close the gap, but just to reduce the gap to a more acceptable level in terms of premium, but then remain and will remain a premium brand.

但正如 Jacek 幾週前指出的那樣，由於促銷活動水平低，而競爭對手的折扣活動卻非常激進，因此存在很大的差異。對我們來說，重要的是要將促銷活動恢復到更正常的水平，當然不是為了消除差距，而是為了將差距縮小到一個更可接受的高端水平，但同時保持並將繼續保持高端品牌的地位。

So this is what I call normalization that happened in Q3. We are going to a normal promotional activity, which is one, not the only, but one of the element of the mix in order to develop in the future. And then next to that, there was this blast effect I've been mentioning, which is way back, way back big time. And yes, it's true that we see a mission in ensuring that the category is known, understood, create the awareness, which is still low in many instances.

這就是我所說的第三季發生的正常化過程。我們將進行一項常規的推廣活動，這只是未來發展組合要素之一，而不是唯一要素。除此之外，還有我一直提到的爆炸效應，那已經是很久很久以前的事了。是的，我們確實看到了確保人們了解、理解這個類別並提高其認知度的使命，而目前在許多情況下，這種認知度仍然很低。

And I think we can say that around 80% of this free can promotion went to smokers and vapers. And we know that the future growth will come notably from converting these smokers, these vapers to nicotine pouch. And we were happy to do that. And we are very, very pleased with feedback we are getting from this promotion.

我認為我們可以說，這次免費罐裝飲料促銷活動中約有 80% 的受益者是吸煙者和電子煙使用者。我們知道，未來的成長將主要來自將這些吸菸者、這些電子煙使用者轉化為尼古丁袋使用者。我們很樂意這樣做。我們對此推廣活動收到的回饋非常非常滿意。

Now we acknowledge that this is coming at a cost. And I've been flagging in my remarks, the fact that restarting this promotion and all this, I would say, restart of the machine of pushing ZYN at the right level has been costing around $100 million of reduction in sales. And I would say this one, of course, is more exceptional by nature.

現在我們承認，這樣做是有代價的。我在演講中已經多次強調，重啟這項促銷活動以及所有這些，可以說重啟推動 ZYN 達到正確水平的機制，已經造成了大約 1 億美元的銷售額下降。當然，我認為這件作品本身就更加特殊。

So I think really two elements. One, we are now in a normal situation when, in the past quarters, we were not in a normal situation in terms of net price positioning. And this kind of one-off special, not necessarily repeatable promotion that happened in Q2. So that's for explaining what happened in Q3.

所以我認為其實包含兩個要素。第一，我們現在處於正常狀態，而過去幾個季度，我們在淨價定位方面並不處於正常狀態。而這種一次性的特別促銷活動，並不一定會在第二季再次出現。以上就是對第三季發生的事情的解釋。

Now you were asking, okay, what has been happening in terms of consumer offtake? So frankly, the first two weeks, I think, have been above 30% or a bit below 30% in terms of consumer offtake, we stay with a very strong growth. And actually, if you look at Q3 without the special free can promotion, we were at 3% -- sorry, 30% plus growth. So it seems that we are starting the last quarter on the same strong note as the third quarter in terms of evolution of consumer offtake.

現在你問的是，好的，消費者購買方面發生了什麼變化？坦白說，我認為前兩週的消費者購買率都在 30% 以上或略低於 30%，我們保持了非常強勁的成長。事實上，如果不考慮免費罐裝促銷活動，第三季我們的成長率是 3%——抱歉，是 30% 以上。因此，就消費者購買量的變化而言，我們似乎以與第三季度同樣強勁的勢頭開啟了最後一個季度。

Your second question was on IQOS and the difference between shipment and IMS. So yes, at the end of September, we are north of 12%, in fact, in terms of HTU shipment growth, so IQOS consumables shipment growth, when we are much closer to 10% in terms of IMS growth. So we expect an acceleration of IMS growth in Q4.

你的第二個問題是關於 IQOS 以及出貨和 IMS 之間的差異。所以，是的，截至 9 月底，就 HTU 出貨量成長而言，實際上我們已經超過了 12%，也就是 IQOS 耗材出貨量成長，而就 IMS 成長而言，我們則接近 10%。因此，我們預計IMS在第四季將加速成長。

But nevertheless, in Q4, we are also expecting to align clearly shipment and IMS. And even -- I'm not excluding the possibility to have -- as you know, we manage inventory level here and there to have shipment a bit below IMS for the year. So that's what is going to happen in Q4. And of course, that is having an impact on the financial performance in Q4, but we are very pleased with the IQOS performance in terms of IMS, which is really the long-term driver and many markets where the brand is doing superbly well. Thank you.

但儘管如此，我們預計在第四季也將明確調整出貨量和IMS。而且——我並不排除這種可能性——正如您所知，我們會對庫存水準進行一些調整，使全年的出貨量略低於IMS目標。所以這就是第四季將會發生的事情。當然，這會對第四季度的財務表現產生影響，但我們對 IQOS 在 IMS 方面的表現非常滿意，IMS 是真正的長期驅動力，而且該品牌在許多市場都表現得非常出色。謝謝。

Matt Smith, Stifel.

馬特史密斯，史蒂費爾。

I wanted to follow up on your commentary regarding the US ZYN business and better understand the comments in the release about expecting ZYN to maintain best-in-class or best-in-group margin structure relative to the performance we saw here in the third quarter.

我想就您關於美國 ZYN 業務的評論進行後續探討，並更好地理解新聞稿中關於預期 ZYN 將保持一流或集團最佳利潤率結構（相對於我們在第三季度看到的業績）的評論。

When you think about the $100 million of investment that took place in the quarter, is that a sustained level of investment or, I should say, a normalized level of investment that you face a tough comparison against until this time next year? Or are there other considerations we should take into account? Thank you.

當你想到本季發生的 1 億美元投資時，這算是一種持續的投資水平，還是說，這是一種正常化的投資水平，以至於在明年這個時候你都很難與之進行比較？或是有其他需要考慮的因素嗎？謝謝。

Sure, Matt. Let me clarify again. The $100 million is a one-off, okay? So this is all the cost of this special promotion on one side and relaunching the machine. So this is a one-off and non-repeatable, so that's one element.

當然可以，馬特。我再解釋一下。這1億美元是一次性的，懂嗎？所以，這既是這次特別促銷活動的全部成本，也是機器重新上市的全部成本。所以這是一次性的，不可重複的，這是其中一個因素。

And then the other element, as I said, is the fact that with a new level of promotion activity that's going to be a normal one. Again, I'm not saying we're going to go to the rest of the category and the competition that is extremely aggressive, but we will have a significantly higher level of promotional activity versus, as I said, 20% in H1 and single digit in Q3 '24.

正如我所說，另一個因素是，隨著促銷活動的升級，這將是正常現象。我再次強調，我並不是說我們會進入該類別的其他領域，與那些競爭極其激烈的競爭對手展開競爭，但與我之前所說的相比，我們的促銷活動水平將會顯著提高，2024 年上半年為 20%，第三季度為個位數。

And this is what you should expect in the future. But taking that into account, I'm happy to repeat that we expect ZYN in this new normal or in this normal, I would say, situation to remain very nicely the best-in-class margin in the group.

這就是你未來應該預料到的情況。但考慮到這一點，我很高興地重申，我們預期 ZYN 在這種新的常態下，或者說在這種常態下，將繼續保持集團內最佳的利潤率。

Thank you for that clarification. And you talked about the single-digit operating profit growth on an underlying basis in the fourth quarter. Can you provide a little bit more detail behind the drivers behind that? How much of it is related to inventory related timing for IQOS and ZYN versus investment levels remaining high in the US or other considerations? Thank you.

謝謝你的解釋。您也提到了第四季基本營業利潤的個位數成長。能否詳細介紹一下背後的驅動因素？其中有多少是由於 IQOS 和 ZYN 的庫存時間表造成的，又有多少是由於美國投資水準居高不下或其他因素造成的？謝謝。

Sure, Matt. I mean, the message, if I was to simplify it is the momentum for the business is going to continue in Q4. So in terms of smoke-free portfolio, we expect even IQOS to accelerate. We expect ZYN to continue to grow very fast. Of course, we expect a good performance in the US, but it goes beyond the US, and we also expect VEEV to continue to grow very nicely.

當然可以，馬特。我的意思是，簡單來說，訊息就是：業務成長勢頭將在第四季度繼續保持。因此，就無菸產品組合而言，我們預計 IQOS 也將加速發展。我們預計 ZYN 將繼續保持高速成長。當然，我們預期VEEV在美國會有良好的表現，但它的影響範圍不僅限於美國，我們也預期VEEV將持續保持良好的成長動能。

So in terms of underlying consumer of their growth, everything is the same. All the elements in terms of margin are exactly the same, and that there is nothing changed. So this is really what is going to impact the number and the reason why Q4 is going to be lower than the first nine months that, of course, are impressive in terms of growth. I would say at all levels in terms of operating income and adjusted EPS growth is really this move on inventory. Nothing has changed in the momentum.

所以就其成長的根本消費者而言，一切都是一樣的。所有邊距元素都完全相同，沒有任何變化。所以，這才是真正會影響數字的因素，也是第四季會低於前九個月的原因，當然，前九個月的成長令人印象深刻。我認為，從營業收入和調整後每股盈餘成長來看，庫存方面的措施在各個層面都起到了決定性作用。勢頭絲毫未變。

When it comes to combustible, I know it's still 50% plus of the group. We expect to be, again, between 3% to 4% decline in volume. So nothing has changed in our vision of H2. What's going to be a bit less favorable is price increase because indeed, we expect, due to phasing of pricing and so on, a lower Q4. So that's going to impact the quarter.

就可燃物而言，我知道它仍然佔該群體的 50% 以上。我們預計銷量將再次下降 3% 至 4%。所以，我們對H2的願景沒有任何改變。價格上漲可能會不太理想，因為我們預計，由於定價階段等原因，第四季的業績會下滑。所以這將對本季業績產生影響。

So I'm not saying it's going to be huge because we still have nice price increase expected in Q4, but that would be a bit less favorable than the first nine months. Then below that, expect us to continue to invest at a significant pace behind our portfolio. The potential of growth is outstanding, we want to maximize, of course, it's coming with investments.

所以，我並不是說情況會非常糟糕，因為我們預計第四季價格還會有不錯的上漲，但這會比前九個月的情況略遜一籌。其次，預計我們將繼續以相當大的速度投資於我們的投資組合。成長潛力巨大，我們希望將其發揮到極致，當然，這需要投資。

And then I also flagged in my remarks that the tax rate will be significantly higher to land us around 20%, which is our vision today. So that's going to be significantly higher in Q4 than for the first nine months to land us on the 22%. And that is also a negative impact for the Q4. But to be clear, we're not expecting a change of momentum in the business. You have all this technical impact I've just been describing.

然後，我在演講中還提到，稅率將大幅提高，達到 20% 左右，這是我們目前的預期目標。因此，第四季的成長率將比前九個月的成長率高得多，達到 22%。這對第四季也產生了負面影響。但要明確說明的是，我們並不預期業務發展動能會改變。你擁有我剛才描述的所有技術優勢。

Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

邦妮·赫爾佐格，高盛集團。

Hi, Emmanuel. I wanted to ask on guidance. You touched on this, but I guess I wanted to clarify a few things. The stepped up investments in the US, is this all ZYN related? Or are you also accelerating spend behind IQOS or the full planned rollout of ILUMA? And is this, in any way, a pull forward from next year? Or should we expect continued stepped-up spending in the US next year as well?

你好，伊曼紐爾。我想請教一些指導問題。你剛才也提到了這一點，但我還想澄清幾點。加大對美國的投資，這都跟ZYN有關嗎？或者，你們是否也正在加速推進 IQOS 的投入，或是全面推進 ILUMA 的計畫推廣？這是否意味著明年的工作提早了？或者我們應該預期明年美國支出將繼續增加？

And then as it relates to guidance, I guess, I also want to understand the drivers behind your full-year dollar EPS growth guidance raise despite the lower operating income growth guidance. What are the drivers below the line? And I think I know, but how did those factors change since the beginning of the year?

至於業績指引，我想了解一下，儘管營業收入成長預期下調，但貴方上調全年每股收益成長預期背後的驅動因素是什麼。底線以下的驅動因素是什麼？我想我知道，但是自年初以來，這些因素發生了哪些變化？

Sure, Bonnie. So on the US step-up of investment, I mean, US is a growth market for us. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to repeat that.

當然可以，邦妮。所以，就美國投資的增加而言，我的意思是，美國對我們來說是一個成長型市場。謝謝您給我機會再次說明。

In the US, we are in a unique opportunity. This is a market where we are smoke-free, basically. We have today, the leading brand of the most dynamic category. And hopefully, we are getting close to be able to launch IQOS ILUMA, that is an incredibly successful product, everywhere in the world. And we are convinced that it will be very appealing for the still close to 30 million smokers in this market. So this is a market that is incredibly attractive and where we see a lot of growth in the future.

在美國，我們正面臨一個獨特的機會。這是一個基本上禁煙的市場。如今，我們擁有最具活力類別中的領導品牌。希望我們很快就能推出 IQOS ILUMA，這是一款在世界各地都非常成功的產品。我們確信，對於這個市場上仍然近3000萬的煙民來說，這將非常有吸引力。所以這是一個極具吸引力的市場，我們預期未來會有很大的成長空間。

And of course, in line with the potential that we see for this market, we are investing significantly in the country. We are, of course, supporting the ZYN potential and the ZYN growth. We continue to build the team to be at the right level to promote and develop this very exciting portfolio. That is clearly, you're right, impacting 2025, but that is also certainly something we will continue in the future. So it's not that the investments are stopping in '25.

當然，鑑於我們對這個市場的潛力，我們正在該國進行大量投資。我們當然支持 ZYN 的發展潛力和 ZYN 的成長。我們將繼續壯大團隊，使其達到合適的水平，以推廣和發展這一令人振奮的產品組合。顯然，您說得對，這將對 2025 年產生影響，但這也肯定是我們未來會繼續做的事情。所以並不是說投資會在 2025 年停止。

That will, of course, in all dimension, commercial presence, marketing investment, but of course, also presence in the country when it comes to capacity to work at the state level with the right people. These are investments that we are making gradually. And we are indeed continuing to invest behind IQOS to prepare the launch in the future. So all that is absolutely playing in the US and impacting the US.

當然，這將體現在各個方面，包括商業存在、行銷投資，當然也包括與州級合適人員合作的能力。這些都是我們正在逐步進行的投資。我們確實會繼續加大對 IQOS 的投入，為未來的上市做好準備。所以所有這些都絕對在美國發生，並對美國產生影響。

On the full-year guidance, so yes, obviously, everybody understands if you take the $100 million and the (inaudible), which is really the new element of this Q3 and the revision of the guidance, everybody understand where the revision of the guidance is coming.

關於全年業績指引，是的，顯然，大家都明白，如果你把 1 億美元和（聽不清）考慮進去，這實際上是第三季度的新要素以及對業績指引的修訂，大家都明白業績指引的修訂來自哪裡。

Can I just nevertheless say that there is still a possibility that we finish above 11%, which was the previous guidance. So we'll see how Q4 unfold. And we are raising EPS because, let's be clear, we continue, nevertheless, we expect a very strong growth of OI. And we are also having some, as we explained, slightly positive or better views on the tax rate.

不過我還是想說，我們仍然有可能最終超過 11%，這是先前的預期。所以，讓我們拭目以待第四季的發展。我們上調每股收益預期，因為，需要明確的是，儘管如此，我們仍然預期營業收入將實現非常強勁的成長。正如我們之前解釋的那樣，我們對稅率也有一些略微積極或較好的看法。

And I should probably add that interest costs are not evolving in an unfavorable manner, but rather in a favorable manner. So we could be a bit better than what we thought initially. But fundamentally, let's be clear, the EPS growth, the strong double digit, that is coming from the OI growth, okay? That is a powerful engine that we have, and that is powering very [nicely] the company.

我或許還應該補充一點，利息成本的走勢並非不利，而是有利的。所以，我們可能比最初預想的要好一些。但從根本上來說，我們要明確一點，每股盈餘的強勁成長（兩位數成長）來自於未平倉營業額的成長，懂嗎？這是我們擁有的強大引擎，它為公司提供了非常好的動力。

Well, an icing on the cake on top of that, indeed, tax seems to be evolving in the right direction.

更令人欣喜的是，稅收制度似乎朝著正確的方向發展。

Okay. That's helpful. And maybe a quick follow-up question on the free can promo in ZYN. Emmanuel, you touched on it, you said it was a success. Did it actually bring in new consumers to the brand?

好的。那很有幫助。或許還可以快速問一下關於 ZYN 免費罐裝促銷活動的問題。伊曼紐爾，你剛才也提到了，你說它很成功。它真的為該品牌帶來了新消費者嗎？

And if so, I mean, can you give us a sense of what percentage of the free can promo resulted in new consumers to the brand? And then I am curious to hear why you chose to run the promo the way you did versus a BOGO. I guess I'm asking because did -- it results in some of the competitive brands seeing some volume left given your promo, the way it was run. Thank you.

如果是這樣的話，我的意思是，您能否告訴我們，免費罐裝促銷活動為該品牌帶來了多少新客戶？那我很想知道，為什麼你們選擇以這種方式進行促銷，而不是採用買一送一的方式。我這麼問是因為——鑑於你們的促銷活動及其運作方式，這確實導致一些競爭品牌獲得了一定的銷售量。謝謝。

Look, I'm not going to discuss how relevant is our commercial policy. And I think we're showing a lot, frankly, versus that remark I was having the other day as investors was reading what others are saying about what they do. I think we are sharing a lot. So on the positive, it is -- clearly, we will need some time to have probably the full impact. But clearly, in terms of creating the awareness of the category and of the ZYN brand, the understanding, first testing, we have some feedback.

聽著，我不會討論我們的商業政策有多重要。坦白說，我認為我們正在展現出很多東西，這與我前幾天說的那番話截然不同，當時投資者們正在閱讀其他人對他們所做的事情的評價。我覺得我們有很多共同點。所以從正面的方面來看，很明顯，我們需要一些時間才能產生全部影響。但顯然，就提高消費者對該品類和 ZYN 品牌的認知度、理解度而言，經過初步測試，我們得到了一些回饋。

And remember, we stopped the promotion many weeks ago, that are extremely positive. And clearly, we are building new customer for ZYN. I'm not able to get at that stage maybe, (inaudible) but clearly there are positive impacts.

請記住，我們早在幾週前就停止了促銷活動，這些活動都非常積極。顯然，我們正在為 ZYN 開發新客戶。我可能還達不到那個程度，（聽不清楚）但顯然有正面的影響。

On the BOGO versus what we've been doing, we could have a discussion, but let's be back to what was here, the objective of this free can objective. That was really -- let's make a big splash, let's create the blast. We want people to have a first, I would say, connection with this category. When you do a buy one, get one free, I mean, you are applying to your consumer, you're not recruiting, you're not creating awareness for new possible customers.

關於買一送一與我們一直以來所做的事情，我們可以討論一下，但讓我們回到我們今天的主題，也就是這次免費贈送罐裝飲料的目標。那真是——讓我們掀起軒然大波，讓我們製造轟動效應。我們希望人們能與這個類別建立起第一次聯繫。當你進行買一送一的促銷活動時，我的意思是，你是在向你的消費者推廣產品，而不是在招募新客戶，也不是在為潛在的新客戶創造認知度。

I said, but I'm really happy to repeat, the potential of the nicotine pouch category is enormous. The category is growing very fast. That is a category that has a potential to be, one day, as big as vaping, why not as big as combustible. As a leader, it is our role, it is our mission to make it known, to make it understood, and to contribute to the growth of the category.

我說過，而且我很高興再次重申，尼古丁袋市場的潛力是巨大的。該品類成長速度非常快。這個品類有朝一日可能會像電子煙一樣大，甚至像可燃香煙一樣大。身為領導者，我們有責任、有使命去宣傳、推廣，並為該品類的發展做出貢獻。

Are we contributing to other because they're also selling nicotine pouch when we go to the nicotine pouch category? Yes, probably. But as the (inaudible) leader of the category, we are the first beneficial of this promotion. Again, I'm not saying we're going to repeat it every quarter. I'm sure you understood that. It was a kind of exceptional moment, but I think we are very pleased with the results.

當我們進入尼古丁袋類別時，他們也在銷售尼古丁袋，這是否也算是為其他商家提供了幫助？是的，很有可能。但作為該品類的（聽不清楚）領導者，我們是此次促銷活動的第一受益者。我再次聲明，我並不是說我們每季都會重複這樣做。我相信你明白這一點。這是一個特殊的時刻，但我認為我們對結果非常滿意。

(Operator Instructions) Faham Baig, UBS.

（操作說明）Faham Baig，瑞銀集團。

The first one from me will start from heated tobacco, and you called out some intensifying competitive activity. I presume you're referring to the two product launches in Japan over the past couple of months that are being supported by heavy promotional activity.

我首先要說的就是加熱菸草，而你卻提到了一些愈演愈烈的競爭活動。我猜你指的是過去幾個月在日本推出的兩款產品，這兩款產品都得到了大力宣傳推廣。

I guess the question is, historically, these competitor launches have had a limited impact on IQOS' performance. Do you think it will be similar this time, and that IQOS can maintain its high single-digit growth in Japan?

我想問題在於，從歷史數據來看，這些競爭對手的產品發表對 IQOS 的績效影響有限。你認為這次情況會類似嗎？ IQOS 能否在日本維持高個位數的成長？

Thank you for the question, Faham. Look, this is not the first time that we see competition, of course, trying things and coming with innovation and more investment. But I think I have to acknowledge that this time, it's probably, in some areas, taking even more intensity, which, frankly, and that will be my first comment, we are happy to see because we've been, during a long period of time, the only one in the industry giving the feeling that we saw that it heat-not-burn was a fantastic category innovation for smokers, with the capacity really to convert smokers and become a big part of the market amongst smoke-free products. And really probably the best solution to convert smokers.

謝謝你的提問，法哈姆。當然，這並非我們第一次看到競爭對手嘗試各種方法，並帶來創新和更多投資。但我認為我必須承認，這一次，在某些方面，這種趨勢可能會更加明顯。坦白說，這也是我首先要說的，我們很高興看到這一點，因為在很長一段時間裡，我們是業內唯一一家讓消費者感受到“加熱不燃燒”技術對煙熏者來說是一項了不起的創新，它真的有能力改變煙熏者的觀念，並在無菸產品市場中佔據重要地位的公司。這或許是讓吸菸者改吸菸的最佳方法。

So it seems that a growing number of players are getting there. They are improving their product. They work on innovation. We always thought that it's a normal development in a category, competition would improve and increase their investment. This is happening.

看來越來越多的玩家正在達到這個目標。他們正在改進產品。他們致力於創新。我們一直認為這是某個領域正常的競爭發展趨勢，競爭會加劇，企業也會加大投入。這正在發生。

But at the same time, it's interesting to see that we are, in Japan, like in other countries, I mean, we remain extremely stable in terms of overall share of this category. We are north of 75%, and we have been there for the last five, six years, which is quite incredible because when you have a new segment, innovation, normally the leader, stay the leader for a long period of time at a high level, but normally losing a bit of share as there is other offering and also because a lot of this offering is coming at a discounted price and trying to fish at a low price positioning. Well, we're very stable.

但同時，有趣的是，在日本，就像在其他國家一樣，我們在這個類別的整體份額方面保持著非常穩定的狀態。我們的市場份額超過 75%，而且在過去的五六年裡一直保持在這個水平，這非常不可思議，因為當一個新細分市場出現創新時，通常情況下，領先者會在很長一段時間內保持高水平的領先地位，但通常會失去一些市場份額，因為有其他產品出現，而且很多產品都是以折扣價推出，試圖通過低價定位來吸引消費者。嗯，我們非常穩定。

And actually, Japan is making no exception. You see, and I think we've been showing the data, we are very, very stable in terms of share of the category, which obviously is a tribute to the strength of IQOS to the quality of what we offer, which I believe is a unique experience for the consumer.

事實上，日本也不例外。你看，我認為我們已經展示了數據，我們在該品類的份額非常非常穩定，這顯然要歸功於 IQOS 的實力以及我們所提供產品的質量，我相信這對消費者來說是一種獨特的體驗。

And therefore, I don't want to be complacent, but we certainly believe that we have the capacity to continue to be a strong leader and maintaining very strong leadership in Japan and in other markets. So there is certainly, for us, the vision that Japan will continue to be a market where we can grow very nicely. I'm not going to give a guidance now for '26, but we [see] certainly Japan as a growth market for the future.

因此，我不想自滿，但我們當然相信我們有能力繼續保持強大的領導地位，並在日本和其他市場中保持非常強大的領導地位。因此，我們當然相信，日本將繼續成為我們能夠成長的市場。我現在不會對 2026 年做出預測，但我們肯定認為日本是未來的成長市場。

And I just want to conclude my comment again saying it's really good to see that the industry seems to be putting much more resources behind smoke-free globally, and heat-not-burn in particular. And again, as a leader of this category, we think it's very good news for us. Thank you.

最後我想再次總結一下，很高興看到全球範圍內，尤其是加熱不燃燒技術，業界似乎投入了更多資源來支援無菸技術。再次強調，作為該領域的領導者，我們認為這對我們來說是個非常好的消息。謝謝。

Damian McNeela, Deutsche Numis.

達米安·麥克尼拉，德國努米斯。

Just two quick ones from me, please. Just what degree of visibility do you have on the inventory adjustment that you're expecting in Q4? What's the confidence behind that, is the first question. And then the second question is, what do you see is the sort of a long-term sustainable price premium for ZYN in the US, please?

請容許我快速回答兩個問題。您對第四季預計的庫存調整究竟有多大的了解？第一個問題是：這種自信背後的依據是什麼？那麼第二個問題是，您認為ZYN在美國的長期可持續價格溢價是多少？

Thank you for your question, Damian. First on inventory adjustments. So again, I guess your question was both on IQOS and on ZYN. On IQOS, as I said, we are expecting to align our shipments broadly with our in-market sales. We expect acceleration in in-market sales in Q4.

謝謝你的提問，達米安。首先是庫存調整。所以，我猜你的問題既是關於IQOS的，也是關於ZYN的。關於 IQOS，正如我所說，我們預計出貨量將與市場銷售情況大致保持一致。我們預計第四季市場銷售額將加速成長。

We are close to 10%, a bit above at the end of September. So that will drive the level of adjustment. Plus, as I said, the fact that notably in Japan and depending on the situation on logistics and how things evolve, but we may want to reduce a bit more the level of inventory.

我們接近 10%，9 月底時略高於這個數值。這將決定調整的幅度。另外，正如我所說，尤其是在日本，還要視物流情況和事態發展而定，我們可能希望進一步降低庫存水準。

I'm not saying it's going to be very material, but that means that we could have shipment even slightly below adjusted in-market sales for the year, we'll see. And in my remarks, I said that we expect around [2 billion] [stick] adjustment for Q4. So that's for IQOS.

我不是說影響會很大，但這意味著我們今年的出貨量甚至可能略低於調整後的市場銷售額，我們拭目以待。我在演講中提到，我們預計第四季將有大約 20 億的調整。以上是關於IQOS的內容。

When it comes to ZYN, we flagged the fact that in this market coming back to normal, there was a higher level than normal of inventory at the level of wholesaler and distributor notably that we probably expect to adjust in the coming months, 20 million to 30 million can. We were actually expecting that to happen at the end of September. But given the fact that we were in high promotional activities, this did not happen.

就 ZYN 而言，我們指出，在這個市場恢復正常的過程中，批發商和分銷商的庫存水準高於正常水平，我們預計未來幾個月可能會調整 2,000 萬至 3,000 萬罐。我們原本預計這件事會在九月底發生。但鑑於當時我們正在進行大量的宣傳活動，這種情況並沒有發生。

So I would tend to believe that this is going to happen in Q4, but what happened in September is pushing me to be a bit more cautious on the certainty that this adjustment that will happen ultimately is going, with 100% certain to take place in Q4. But that would be, nevertheless, my expectation.

所以我傾向於認為這種情況會在第四季度發生，但九月發生的事情讓我對最終發生的調整能否百分之百確定會在第四季度發生持更加謹慎的態度。但即便如此，這仍然是我的預期。

On the ZYN premium level, I mean, of course, I mean, that's something very sensitive. You don't expect me to give a number. But I think today's growth of ZYN and the price positioning of ZYN is certainly confirming that ZYN deserve and justify, given the franchise, the strength of the brand, the emotional connection with the US consumer that is unique, deserves a very nice premium, and we intend to keep a very nice premium in the future. Of course, I won't elaborate on what it is precisely.

關於 ZYN 高階產品，我的意思是，當然，我的意思是，這是一個非常敏感的問題。你不會指望我會給出一個具體的數字吧？但我認為，ZYN 目前的成長和定價策略無疑證實了，鑑於其特許經營權、品牌實力以及與美國消費者之間獨特的情感聯繫，ZYN 值得併有理由獲得非常可觀的溢價，我們也打算在未來保持非常可觀的溢價。當然，我不會詳細說明它究竟是什麼。

Faham Baig, UBS.

法哈姆·拜格，瑞銀集團。

My second question was on the potential launch of ZYN Ultra in the US. So as you sort of highlighted in your remarks, the FDA confirmed plans to more efficiently review nicotine pouch applications. My question would be, when do you expect this process to potentially conclude?

我的第二個問題是關於 ZYN Ultra 在美國上市的可能性。正如你在演講中強調的那樣，FDA 確認了更有效地審查尼古丁袋申請的計劃。我的問題是，您預計這個過程何時能夠結束？

Or could you consider launching the product ahead of an approval? It seems like some of your peers are. And I just wanted to confirm that this product that is going to be launched, and Ultra corresponds to the 2021 application covering the 6-milligram and 9-milligram strengths and the 10 flavors.

或者，您是否可以考慮在獲得批准之前推出該產品？看來你的一些同齡人也是這樣。我只是想確認一下，即將推出的這款產品，Ultra，符合 2021 年的申請要求，涵蓋 6 毫克和 9 毫克的劑量以及 10 種口味。

Well, I'm not going to speculate. I think that FDA has been communicating on their program to accelerate and give clarity on some of applications that it could accelerate. So I'm not going to speculate on what's going to happen.

我不打算妄加猜測。我認為FDA一直在就其加速審批計畫進行溝通，並明確說明哪些申請可以加速審批。所以我不會去猜測會發生什麼事。

But certainly, we are hoping for the FDA to create a level-playing field and ensure that all competitors can come with their product and not be at a disadvantage because some would be on the market and other will not be allowed. So that's something that we hope to happen as soon as possible and, of course, in the coming months.

當然，我們希望FDA能夠創造一個公平的競爭環境，確保所有競爭者都能帶著他們的產品進入市場，而不會因為一些產品可以上市而另一些產品不被允許上市而處於劣勢。所以我們希望這件事能盡快發生，當然，會在接下來的幾個月發生。

We are monitoring the situation. We see what other competitors are doing we are considering all options. But at that stage, I don't have anything else to add. Again, for us, expectation of the FDA creating a level-playing field is really our ask and our priority. I don't think we ever comment on the characteristics of the ZYN Ultra PMTA. But certainly, these are products that would come with some differentiation versus the ZYN Dry that today enjoy already a PMTA.

我們正在密切關注事態發展。我們看到其他競爭對手的動向，正在考慮所有方案。但到了那個階段，我沒有什麼好補充的了。再次強調，我們希望FDA能創造一個公平的競爭環境，這才是我們真正的訴求與首要任務。我認為我們從未對 ZYN Ultra PMTA 的特性進行過評論。但可以肯定的是，這些產品與目前已獲得 PMTA 的 ZYN Dry 相比，將存在一些差異。

Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to management for closing remarks.

謝謝。問答環節到此結束。現在我想把發言權交還給管理階層，請他們作總結陳詞。

Thank you very much. That concludes our call today. Thank you for joining us. And if you have any follow-up questions, please contact the Investor Relations team. Thank you again and have a great day.

非常感謝。今天的通話到此結束。感謝您的參與。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係團隊。再次感謝，祝您今天過得愉快。

Thank you. Speak to you soon.

謝謝。回頭再聊。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。