菲利普莫里斯國際 (PM) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Philip Morris International 2025 first-quarter results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加菲利普莫里斯國際2025年第一季業績電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, James Bushnell, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communications. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係和財務傳播副總裁詹姆斯·布希內爾 (James Bushnell)。請繼續。

Welcome. Thank you for joining us. Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2025 first-quarter results. The press release is available on our website at pmi.com.

歡迎。感謝您加入我們。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含有關我們 2025 年第一季業績的詳細資訊。新聞稿可在我們的網站 pmi.com 上查閱。

A glossary of terms, including the definition for smoke-free products as well as adjustments, other calculations, and reconciliations to the most directly comparable US GAAP measures for non-GAAP financial measures cited in this presentation, are available in Exhibit 99.2 to the company's Form 8-K dated April 23, 2025, and on our Investor Relations website.

術語表（包括無菸產品的定義以及本簡報中引用的非 GAAP 財務指標的調整、其他計算和與最直接可比較的美國 GAAP 指標的對帳）可在公司 2025 年 4 月 23 日的 8-K 表格附件 99.2 中找到，也可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results. I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements.

今天的評論包含前瞻性的陳述和對未來結果的預測。我請您注意今天的簡報和新聞稿中揭露的前瞻性和警示性聲明，以了解可能導致實際結果與預測或前瞻性聲明有重大差異的各種因素。

I'm joined today by Emmanuel Babeau, Chief Financial Officer. Over to you, Emmanuel.

今天和我一起參加的是財務長 Emmanuel Babeau。交給你了，伊曼紐。

Thank you, James, and welcome everyone. In Q1, we delivered a very strong start to the year, with all key elements of the business contributing strongly to deliver double-digit increases in organic net revenue, operating income, and adjusted diluted EPS in both constant currency and dollar terms.

謝謝你，詹姆斯，歡迎大家。在第一季度，我們取得了非常強勁的開局，業務的所有關鍵要素都做出了強有力的貢獻，以固定匯率和美元計算，實現了有機淨收入、營業收入和調整後稀釋每股收益的兩位數增長。

Our smoke-free business performed exceptionally well across all areas, with shipment volumes up plus 14.4% year on year, organic net revenue growth of plus 20%, and outstanding organic gross profit growth of plus 33% as all three smoke-free categories expanded gross margins. This was especially fueled by the rapid growth of ZYN and the continued volume momentum, operating leverage, and scale benefits of IQOS.

我們的無菸業務在所有領域均表現優異，出貨量年增 14.4%，有機淨收入增長 20%，有機毛利潤增長突出，達到 33%，三個無菸類別的毛利率均有所擴大。這尤其得益於 ZYN 的快速成長以及 IQOS 持續的銷售成長動能、營運槓桿和規模優勢。

Our smoke-free business now accounts for 44% of total gross profit, as we continue to deploy our multicategory strategy across markets and broaden our growth opportunities.

隨著我們繼續在各個市場部署多品類策略並拓寬成長機會，我們的無菸業務目前佔總毛利的 44%。

IQOS delivered close to plus 10% HTU-adjusted IMS growth with continued strong performance both in Japan and Europe, despite the annualization impact of the EU characterizing flavor ban. We expect double-digit growth for the rest of the year.

儘管歐盟的調味禁令對年度化產生了影響，但 IQOS 在日本和歐洲仍保持了強勁的表現，HTU 調整後的 IMS 成長率接近 10%。我們預計今年剩餘時間將達到兩位數成長。

ZYN once again delivered strong growth in the US, with shipments increasing by an impressive plus 53% to reach 202 million cans, exceeding our initial expectations, as demand remained strong and production capacity increased ahead of schedule in the latter part of March, enabling some initial replenishment of trade inventories. International nicotine pouch can volumes also grew by plus 53%, or by plus 182% excluding the Nordics, demonstrating the global dynamism of this emerging category.

ZYN 在美國再次實現強勁增長，出貨量大幅增長 53%，達到 2.02 億罐，超出了我們最初的預期，因為需求依然強勁，且 3 月下旬生產能力提前提高，從而實現了貿易庫存的一些初步補充。國際尼古丁袋裝罐銷量也成長了 53%，不包括北歐地區則成長了 182%，展現了這個新興類別的全球活力。

In e-vapor, VEEV Q1 performance was impressive, demonstrating its increasing contribution within our multicategory offering. Shipments more than doubled year on year and gross margins further expanded, driven by strong pod growth in Europe as we increased our distribution and commercial activities.

在電子煙領域，VEEV Q1 的表現令人印象深刻，證明了其在我們的多類別產品中的貢獻日益增加。隨著我們增加分銷和商業活動，受歐洲強勁成長的推動，出貨量年增了一倍以上，毛利率進一步擴大。

Within combustibles, overall volume growth coupled with strong pricing and ongoing cost initiatives drove a robust performance despite notably negative geographic mix from increased volumes in lower-margin markets.

在可燃物領域，儘管低利潤市場銷售增加導致地理分佈明顯不利，但整體銷售成長加上強勁的定價和持續的成本舉措仍推動了強勁的業績。

Overall, the very strong and increasingly profitable underlying growth of our smoke-free business was coupled with very solid combustible results and the added benefit of favorable shipment timing. This allowed us to deliver plus 16% organic operating income growth and plus 250 basis points of expansion in adjusted OI margins to reach 40.7%, and resulted in strong double-digit adjusted diluted EPS growth in both currency-neutral and dollar terms despite currency headwinds.

總體而言，我們的無菸業務非常強勁且利潤不斷增加的潛在成長，加上非常穩固的可燃業績以及有利的裝運時機的額外好處。這使我們能夠實現有機營業收入成長 16%，調整後的營業利潤率擴大 250 個基點，達到 40.7%，並且儘管面臨貨幣逆風，但以貨幣中性和美元計算，調整後的稀釋每股收益仍實現了強勁的兩位數增長。

While it is early in the year and there are a number of uncertainties in the global economic outlook, we remain confident that we will achieve another year of superior growth. As such, we now forecast double-digit adjusted diluted EPS growth at prevailing exchange rates.

儘管今年才剛開始，全球經濟前景仍存在許多不確定因素，但我們仍然有信心，我們將再創輝煌。因此，我們現在預測以現行匯率計算，調整後的稀釋每股盈餘將達到兩位數成長。

Turning to the headline numbers, we delivered volume growth of plus 3.9%, reflecting the very strong dynamism of our smoke-free business. Combined with strong pricing and despite unfavorable combustible mix, we delivered double-digit organic net revenue growth of plus 10.2%, reaching $9.3 billion in total.

從整體數據來看，我們的銷售量成長了 3.9%，這反映了我們無菸業務的強勁活力。結合強勁的定價，儘管可燃物組合不利，我們仍實現了兩位數的有機淨收入成長，即 10.2%，總額達到 93 億美元。

There was also a technical impact from the change in commercial model for the Indonesia below-tier one cigarette segment, where we now act as a handling agent. This results in lower net revenues and COGS but has no meaningful impact on gross profit or operating income. Excluding this effect, which will notably affect the first three quarters of the year, organic net revenues grew by around plus 12%.

印尼一級以下捲菸市場的商業模式變化也帶來了技術影響，目前我們在該市場中擔任代理商。這會導致淨收入和銷貨成本降低，但對毛利或營業收入沒有顯著影響。排除這將對今年前三個季度產生顯著影響的影響，有機淨收入增長了約 12%。

And as I mentioned, our smoke-free business was the primary driver behind our organic adjusted OI growth of plus 16%, or plus 12.8% in dollar terms. Q1 adjusted diluted EPS grew by plus 17.3% in constant currency and by plus 12.7% in dollar terms to $1.69. This includes a $0.07 unfavorable currency variance, notably due to non-recurring transactional losses in the quarter linked to currency volatility.

正如我所提到的，我們的無菸業務是我們有機調整後營業利潤成長 16%（以美元計算為 12.8%）的主要驅動力。第一季調整後攤薄每股收益以固定匯率計算成長17.3%，以美元計算成長12.7%，達1.69美元。其中包括0.07美元的不利匯率變動，主要是由於本季與匯率波動相關的非經常性交易損失。

This stronger than expected performance was primarily driven by the top-line and gross margin results of our smoke-free business. Excellent ZYN performance was further enhanced by the great work of our manufacturing team in accelerating capacity initiatives.

這一強於預期的業績主要得益於我們無菸業務的營收和毛利率。我們的製造團隊在加速產能計畫方面的出色工作進一步增強了 ZYN 的卓越表現。

Strong IQOS HTU shipment growth includes a robust performance in Europe and around 1 billion units in favorable shipment timing, which we expect to reverse in H2. This was complemented by the resilience of our combustible business.

IQOS HTU 出貨量強勁成長包括歐洲的強勁表現和有利出貨時機的約 10 億台，我們預計下半年將出現逆轉。我們的可燃業務的彈性對此進行了補充。

Looking at category performance in more detail, our smoke-free business grew net revenues by plus 20.4%, and gross profit by plus 33.1%. This led to an impressive plus 670 basis points of organic gross margin expansion to surpass 70%, more than 5 points above the gross margin of combustibles at the current category and geographic mix of SFPs.

更詳細地看一下類別表現，我們的無菸業務淨收入成長了 20.4%，毛利成長了 33.1%。這導致有機毛利率大幅增加 670 個基點，超過 70%，比目前 SFP 類別和地理組合下的可燃物毛利率高出 5 個百分點以上。

As I mentioned, this reflects an acceleration in gross margin expansion for all three smoke-free categories, notably combined with the positive mix impact of ZYN’s accretive unit economics and pricing on both HTUs and ZYN. Very strong IQOS gross margin expansion reflects the powerful growth and scale effects of this large and growing business, manufacturing productivities, and a comparison benefit from higher device shipments in the prior year when ILUMA i was launched in Japan.

正如我所提到的，這反映了所有三個無菸類別的毛利率擴張的加速，尤其是結合了 ZYN 的增值單位經濟效益和定價對 HTU 和 ZYN 的積極組合影響。IQOS 毛利率的強勁成長反映了這龐大且不斷成長的業務的強大成長和規模效應、製造生產力以及去年 ILUMA i 在日本推出時設備出貨量增加帶來的比較優勢。

On an organic basis, combustible net revenues and gross profit grew by plus 3.8% and plus 5.3% respectively. While pricing was strong and volumes were positive, there was a notably negative geographic mix this quarter due to growth in markets such as Turkey and Egypt in addition to the technical impact from Indonesia.

從有機成長來看，可燃性淨收入和毛利潤分別成長了 3.8% 和 5.3%。雖然定價強勁、銷售良好，但由於土耳其和埃及等市場的成長以及印尼的技術影響，本季的地域組合明顯呈現負面狀態。

We expect both pricing and negative geographic mix to moderate over the rest of the year and target combustible gross margin expansion organically and in dollar terms. As expected, input cost headwinds eased compared to recent years. And based on current assumptions, we expect this to further improve in 2026.

我們預計，今年剩餘時間內定價和負面地理分佈情況都將有所緩和，目標是實現可燃性毛利率的有機成長和美元成長。正如預期的那樣，與近年來相比，投入成本阻力有所緩解。根據目前的假設，我們預計 2026 年這一情況將進一步改善。

Taking a closer look at our volumes, shipment growth of plus 3.9% was primarily driven by our smoke-free business, with all categories contributing positively and placing us on track for a fifth consecutive year of total volume growth. Smoke-free volumes grew by plus 14.4%, above our full-year target range of plus 12% to plus 14%, reflecting very positive contributions from IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV.

仔細觀察我們的銷量，我們發現出貨量成長 3.9% 主要得益於無菸業務，所有類別均做出了積極貢獻，並使我們有望連續第五年實現總銷量成長。無菸捲菸銷售量成長了 14.4%，高於我們全年目標範圍的 12% 至 14%，這反映了 IQOS、ZYN 和 VEEV 的正面貢獻。

In addition to the growth of these three brands, which I covered earlier, I would also note that our oral smoke-free business includes US moist snuff and Scandinavian snus, which declined modestly in the quarter. Despite this, oral smoke-free product shipment growth accelerated versus the prior quarter to plus 27%. Cigarette volumes were positive for the fourth consecutive quarter, as we grew share in a modestly declining industry, with continued growth in markets where smoke-free products are not permitted such as Turkey and India.

除了我之前提到的這三個品牌的成長之外，我還想指出，我們的口服無菸業務包括美國濕鼻煙和斯堪的納維亞鼻煙，這兩個品牌在本季度略有下降。儘管如此，口服無菸產品出貨量成長與上一季相比有所加快，達到 27%。香菸銷售量連續第四個季度保持正成長，因為我們在略有下滑的行業中份額有所增長，並且在土耳其和印度等不允許使用無菸產品的市場中繼續增長。

You have heard us talk recently about our multicategory strategy for smoke-free products as we leverage on the strength of the IQOS brand and commercial infrastructure in international markets to accelerate incremental growth from ZYN and VEEV. This is evidenced by our strong smoke-free product results in Q1, with visible accretion across regions and markets.

您最近聽到我們談論我們的無菸產品多類別策略，我們利用 IQOS 品牌和國際市場商業基礎設施的優勢來加速 ZYN 和 VEEV 的增量成長。我們第一季無菸產品的強勁業績證明了這一點，各個地區和市場都有明顯的成長。

We have 46 markets with multiple smoke-free offerings, including 16 with all three PMI categories on offer. The execution of this three-pronged strategy is generating positive results in markets such as the Czech Republic, Romania, Switzerland, and our Global Travel Retail business in addition to promising starts in the UK and Italy. It is also helping to bolster our position as the global smoke-free champion.

我們有 46 個市場提供多種無菸服務，其中 16 個市場提供所有三個 PMI 類別。這一三管齊下的策略的實施除了在英國和義大利取得了良好的開端外，還在捷克共和國、羅馬尼亞、瑞士和我們的全球旅遊零售業務等市場產生了積極的成果。這也有助於鞏固我們作為全球無菸冠軍的地位。

Double-digit Q1 organic net revenue growth was again driven by all three key elements of our structural growth model, namely volumes, pricing, and smoke-free mix. Pricing contributed plus 6 points, reflecting over plus 8% combustible pricing and around plus 3% for smoke-free excluding devices. The positive mix impact of the shift to smoke-free products, including US smoke-free mix, drove a further positive contribution of plus 3.1 points.

第一季有機淨收入實現兩位數成長，這再次得益於我們結構性成長模式的三個關鍵要素，即銷售、定價和無菸組合。定價貢獻了+6個百分點，反映可燃物定價+8%以上，無菸排除設備+3%左右。轉向無菸產品（包括美國無菸混合物）的正面組合影響進一步推動了 3.1 個百分點的正面貢獻。

Overall, combustible geographic mix and other factors had an unfavorable impact of 2.7 points. This was more negative than in prior quarters, reflecting the technical Indonesia impact and combustible market mix dynamics I explained earlier. Currency had a negative impact of 3.9 points, with a further 0.5 points from acquisitions and divestitures, which includes the divestment of Vectura.

總體而言，可燃地理分佈和其他因素產生了 2.7 個百分點的不利影響。這比前幾季更為負面，反映了我之前解釋過的印尼的技術影響和易燃的市場組合動態。貨幣因素造成 3.9 個百分點的負面影響，而收購和資產剝離（包括對 Vectura 的剝離）又造成 0.5 個百分點的負面影響。

Turning now to gross margins, we delivered very strong expansion of plus 340 basis points on an organic basis and plus 360 basis points including currency, acquisitions, and divestitures. This comprised plus 180 basis points from pricing, more than offsetting an 80 basis point unfavorable impact from cost inflation net of productivities and other cost items.

現在談到毛利率，我們實現了非常強勁的成長，有機成長 340 個基點，包括貨幣、收購和資產剝離在內的成長 360 個基點。這包括定價增加 180 個基點，足以抵銷扣除生產力和其他成本項目後的成本通膨 80 個基點的不利影響。

Smoke-free growth delivered an excellent plus 230 basis points, with a flat contribution from combustibles excluding pricing but including the Indonesia impact. This excellent gross margin performance supported strong adjusted operating income margin expansion of plus 250 basis points or plus 200 basis points organically after accounting for the currency mix of our costs, the divestiture of Vectura, and other scope effects.

無菸成長表現出色，成長了 230 個基點，而可燃物（不包括定價但包括印尼的影響）的貢獻則持平。這一出色的毛利率表現支持了強勁的調整後營業收入利潤率擴張，在考慮到成本的貨幣組合、Vectura 的剝離和其他範圍效應後，有機擴張了 250 個基點或 200 個基點。

This impressive margin expansion was delivered despite a 140-basis-point impact of higher SG&A costs driven by continued investment in our smoke-free growth, including US investments, a low cost comparison in the prior year, and the impact of 2025 investment phasing. As we continue to invest in top-line growth, we target organic SG&A growth broadly in line with net revenue growth for the year.

儘管由於我們對無菸成長的持續投資（包括美國投資）、上一年的低成本比較以及 2025 年投資分階段的影響，銷售、一般及行政費用增加了 140 個基點，但仍然實現了令人印象深刻的利潤率成長。隨著我們持續投資於營收成長，我們的目標是有機銷售、一般及行政開支成長與全年淨收入成長大致一致。

We continue to drive manufacturing and back-office efficiencies and delivered over $180 million in gross cost savings in Q1 across both cost of goods sold and SG&A. After more than $750 million of savings in 2024, this places us nicely on track to achieve our $2 billion target over 2024/2026.

我們繼續提高製造和後台效率，並在第一季實現了超過 1.8 億美元的總成本節約，包括銷售成本和銷售、一般及行政費用。在 2024 年節省超過 7.5 億美元後，我們預計在 2024/2026 年實現 20 億美元的目標。

Focusing now on our IQOS business. As expected, calendar effects and EU flavor ban annualization impacted Q1 adjusted IMS. However, the delivery of plus 9.4% growth despite these factors marks continued strong underlying momentum. We expect double-digit progress in the balance of the year, in line with our target of plus 10% to plus 12% growth.

現在專注於我們的 IQOS 業務。正如預期的那樣，日曆效應和歐盟香料禁令年化影響了第一季調整後的 IMS。然而，儘管存在這些因素，但仍實現了 9.4% 的成長率，這標誌著強勁的潛在成長勢頭持續存在。我們預計今年餘下時間將實現兩位數的成長，符合我們 10% 至 12% 的成長目標。

Supporting this are commercial initiatives around brand-building and continuous innovation on devices and consumables, as we progressively roll out ILUMA i and new consumable variants of TEREA, LEVIA, and DELIA. Over the longer term, we have a rich IQOS innovation pipeline to further enhance the breadth and quality of the user experience with this iconic brand.

隨著我們逐步推出 ILUMA i 以及 TEREA、LEVIA 和 DELIA 等新型耗材，我們圍繞品牌建設和設備和耗材的持續創新採取了商業舉措，以此來支持這一目標。從長遠來看，我們擁有豐富的 IQOS 創新管道，可以進一步提升這個標誌性品牌的使用者體驗的廣度和品質。

As disclosed in our latest integrated report, over 99% of our 2024 adjusted R&D spend was on smoke-free products, consistent with the last four years, as we continue to drive consumer-centered product development.

正如我們最新的綜合報告所揭露的，我們 2024 年調整後的研發支出中有 99% 以上用於無菸產品，與過去四年保持一致，因為我們將繼續推動以消費者為中心的產品開發。

Turning to Europe, where we are building on the strength of our IQOS business to create an integrated multicategory portfolio to accelerate consumer switching and value creation. Total shipments of our flagship smoke-free brands advanced by plus 17.5% in Q1, with an increasing contribution from both ZYN and VEEV.

轉向歐洲，我們正在利用 IQOS 業務的優勢，創建一個綜合的多類別產品組合，以加速消費者轉換和價值創造。我們的旗艦無菸品牌總出貨量在第一季成長了 17.5%，其中 ZYN 和 VEEV 的貢獻均增加。

IQOS HTU shipments grew more than 15%, including a positive comparison impact from the prior year. Our investment in brand-building initiatives are exemplified by the recent partnership with renowned Italian designer, Seletti, at Milan Design week as part of the IQOS Curious X campaign.

IQOS HTU 出貨量成長超過 15%，與前一年相比產生了正面的影響。我們對品牌建立計劃的投資體現在最近與義大利著名設計師 Seletti 在米蘭設計週上合作 IQOS Curious X 活動。

For IQOS, Q1 HTU adjusted IMS grew by plus 7.4% as we further accelerated our share of cigarettes and HTUs to a record 11.4%. Many markets in the region grew adjusted IMS by double-digits, including high-teens growth or more in Spain, Germany, Bulgaria, and Greece.

對於 IQOS，第一季 HTU 調整後的 IMS 成長了 7.4%，因為我們進一步將香菸和 HTU 的份額提高到創紀錄的 11.4%。該地區許多市場的調整後 IMS 均實現了兩位數成長，其中西班牙、德國、保加利亞和希臘的 IMS 成長率均達到百分之十幾甚至更高。

This dynamism more than compensated for flavor ban annualization which, as flagged last quarter, was especially pronounced in Q1 and most notably in Italy. I am particularly pleased to report that sequential market share in Italy is trending well with a record high of 18.4% for Q1 and progressive increases through the quarter.

這種活力足以彌補香料禁令年度化的影響，正如上個季度所指出的，這一影響在第一季尤為明顯，尤其是在義大利。我特別高興地報告，義大利的市佔率連續呈現良好趨勢，第一季創下 18.4% 的歷史新高，並在整個季度逐步增加。

Overall, regional Q1 adjusted IMS growth was in line with our expectations, and we expect another robust quarter in Q2 followed by an acceleration in the second half. Our experience of the flavor ban impact remains unchanged, with a broadly consistent pattern of recovery across markets following implementation.

總體而言，區域第一季調整後的 IMS 成長符合我們的預期，我們預計第二季將再次保持強勁成長，隨後下半年將加速成長。我們對香料禁令影響的經驗不變，實施後各市場復甦模式大致一致。

We continue to expect an impact of around 1 billion units in 2025, primarily due to annualization with only Hungary and Slovakia implementing the ban so far this year. The most notable remaining market is Poland where the clean-shelf date will be in early 2026.

我們繼續預計 2025 年的影響將達到約 10 億輛，這主要是由於年度化的影響，今年迄今只有匈牙利和斯洛伐克實施了禁令。最值得關注的剩餘市場是波蘭，其停產日期將在 2026 年初。

We also continue to roll out new and improved variants of our tobacco-free consumable, LEVIA, which is driving promising results. This is well-illustrated by Hungary, where LEVIA reached a double-digit share of PMI HTUs less than three months from launch.

我們也將繼續推出無菸消費品 LEVIA 的新型和改良產品，並取得了可喜的成果。匈牙利就是一個典型例子，LEVIA 在匈牙利推出後不到三個月就達到了 PMI HTU 的兩位數份額。

Our fundamental progress in the region is highlighted by the consistent growth in key city offtake shares. This also includes Hungary, where Budapest share reached almost 42%, over 4 points higher than Tokyo. Impressively, 24 of the 34 markets where IQOS is present in Europe have crossed the 10% key city share mark, with six above 30%. Notable call-outs across the region include London, Vienna, Zurich, Lisbon, and Athens.

我們在該地區取得的根本性進展體現在主要城市承購份額的持續成長。其中還包括匈牙利，布達佩斯的市佔率達到近 42%，比東京高出 4 個百分點。令人印象深刻的是，在 IQOS 在歐洲 34 個市場中，有 24 個市場的關鍵城市份額已超過 10%，其中 6 個市場的份額超過 30%。該地區值得注意的城市包括倫敦、維也納、蘇黎世、里斯本和雅典。

The regulatory landscape is an important determinant of smoke-free progress, and we are encouraged by recent positive developments in a number of markets which recognize the role of tobacco harm reduction in policy measures. This includes Greece, which introduced dedicated legislation supporting science-based claims on smoke-free products; and Hungary, where factual and science-based communications to consumers on smoke-free products is allowed versus a total advertising ban for combustibles.

監管環境是無菸進程的重要決定因素，我們對近期一些市場的積極進展感到鼓舞，這些市場認識到減少菸草危害在政策措施中的作用。其中包括希臘，該國推出了專門的立法，支持無菸產品的科學聲明；匈牙利則允許向消費者進行無菸產品的事實和科學宣傳，但全面禁止可燃產品的廣告。

In Ukraine, an excise tax differential on HTUs versus cigarettes was reintroduced following a period of equal treatment. In Japan, we delivered HTU adjusted IMS growth of plus 9.3%, effectively marking the 10th quarter of double-digit growth after accounting for the leap year. HTU-adjusted share increased by 3 percentage points year on year and plus 1.6 points sequentially to reach 32.2%, further highlighting the dynamism of the innovative IQOS brand and product portfolio in this key market.

在烏克蘭，經過一段時間的平等待遇後，重新引入了對 HTU 和香菸的消費稅差異。在日本，我們的 HTU 調整後 IMS 成長率達到 9.3%，這標誌著在計入閏年後，我們連續第 10 個季度實現了兩位數成長。HTU 調整後的市佔率年增 3 個百分點，季增 1.6 個百分點，達到 32.2%，進一步凸顯了創新 IQOS 品牌和產品組合在這一關鍵市場的活力。

IQOS HTUs captured more than three-quarters of category growth in Q1. And combined with our cigarette business, PMI is now the market leader by volumes, of which approximately 75% are HTUs. The overall smoke-free category continues to progress, reaching almost 48% on a national offtake basis in March, with 13 cities and eight prefectures now crossing the 50% threshold.

IQOS HTU 佔據了第一季類別成長的四分之三以上。加上我們的捲菸業務，菲莫國際目前在銷量方面佔據市場領先地位，其中約 75% 為 HTU。全國整體無菸水準持續提升，3 月全國無菸率已接近 48%，其中 13 個城市和 8 個縣已突破 50% 的門檻。

Globally, we continue to see very strong IQOS performance as illustrated by key city offtake shares. Highlights include impressive year-on-year growth in the capitals of Indonesia and Mexico to surpass 5% share, robust progress in the Middle East and North Africa, and strong growth in Belgrade to 17.7% share despite increased competitive activity.

在全球範圍內，我們繼續看到 IQOS 表現非常強勁，這從主要城市的購買份額可以看出。亮點包括印尼和墨西哥首都的同比增長令人印象深刻，份額超過 5%；中東和北非地區取得了強勁增長；貝爾格萊德儘管競爭加劇，但份額仍強勁增長至 17.7%。

IQOS reached a new high in South Korea, with a 14.1% share in Seoul supported by the launch of ILUMA i in a highly competitive market. Offtake share performance in Cairo continues to be optically impacted by the growth of the combustible market, where competitor supply has normalized.

在競爭激烈的市場中，由於ILUMA i的推出，IQOS在韓國市場創下新高，首爾地區佔有率達14.1%。開羅的承購份額表現持續受到可燃物市場成長的明顯影響，因為競爭對手的供應已經恢復正常。

Also worth highlighting is the excellent growth of our Global Travel Retail business, which is a leading space for our multicategory offering. We recorded strong HTU growth across all regions to reach share of over 18% in airports where IQOS is present.

同樣值得強調的是我們的全球旅遊零售業務的出色成長，這是我們多類別產品的領先領域。我們在所有地區都實現了強勁的 HTU 成長，在有 IQOS 的機場中佔有超過 18% 的份額。

In the US, as planned, we commenced direct sales of IQOS 3 devices and HTUs in Austin, Texas, at the end of March, following targeted engagement with legal-age nicotine consumers over recent months. While intentionally small-scale, we have received strong interest with further IQOS 3 pilots planned in the coming months as we prepare for the at-scale launch of IQOS ILUMA. As a reminder, we are not assuming any significant HTU volumes from the US in our full-year forecast.

在美國，我們按照計劃，在近幾個月針對法定年齡的尼古丁消費者進行了有針對性的接觸之後，於 3 月底開始在德克薩斯州奧斯汀直接銷售 IQOS 3 設備和 HTU。雖然我們有意將規模設得很小，但我們已收到強烈關注，併計劃在未來幾個月內進行更多 IQOS 3 試點，為大規模推出 IQOS ILUMA 做準備。提醒一下，我們在全年預測中沒有假設來自美國的 HTU 數量會很大。

Switching to ZYN, which continues to resonate strongly with adult nicotine users as a superior product with premium brand equity and deliver excellent results.

轉而使用 ZYN，它作為一款具有優質品牌資產的優質產品，繼續在成年尼古丁用戶中引起強烈共鳴，並能帶來出色的效果。

Continued strong demand and increased production capacity enabled shipment volume growth of plus 53% to reach over 200 million cans for the quarter. This plus 70 million year-on-year increase is impressive, though we should note the prior year first quarter featured notable depletion of retailer and distributor stock levels and therefore a sellout volume higher than shipments; and this quarter included the beginning of a replenishment.

持續強勁的需求和不斷提高的生產能力使本季的出貨量成長了 53%，達到 2 億多罐。與去年同期相比增加了 7,000 萬，這令人印象深刻，但我們應該注意到，去年第一季零售商和分銷商的庫存水準明顯下降，因此銷售量高於出貨量；而本季則開始補貨。

As we continue to expand production at our Owensboro plant, we accelerated one planned step in this process to the latter part of March. This enabled increased shipments at quarter-end and a pull-forward of initial distributor restocking.

隨著我們繼續擴大歐文斯伯勒工廠的產量，我們將這一進程中的一個規劃步驟提前到了三月下旬。這使得季度末的出貨量增加，並提前了初始分銷商的補貨。

With very limited flow-through of these additional shipments to retail in the quarter, this did not yet have a meaningful impact on in-store availability. We target full normalization of the supply situation in Q3 this year.

由於本季這些額外出貨量流向零售店的數量非常有限，因此尚未對店內供應產生重大影響。我們的目標是在今年第三季實現供應情勢的全面正常化。

ZYN continues to perform very robustly at retail given the circumstances, with strong double-digit offtake growth. According to Nielsen, Q1 offtake volumes grew by around plus 15% year on year, with category value share remaining strong at over 70% despite heavy competitor discounting.

在這種情況下，ZYN 在零售領域持續表現強勁，銷售量實現了強勁的兩位數成長。據尼爾森稱，第一季的銷售量年增約 15%，儘管競爭對手大幅打折，但類別價值份額仍保持在 70% 以上的強勁水平。

While Nielsen data is based on only a small sample of stores, it also shows our offtake volume share has been held back by availability and declined by 1.5 points sequentially to 61.5%. We already observe our share on MSA data, which measures shipments from distributors to retail, recover to almost 66% in March on the limited flow-through I just mentioned.

雖然尼爾森的數據僅基於一小部分商店樣本，但它也顯示我們的銷售量份額受到可用性的限制，環比下降 1.5 個百分點至 61.5%。我們已經觀察到，由於我剛才提到的有限流通，我們在 MSA 數據（衡量從分銷商到零售商的出貨量）中的份額在 3 月份恢復到了近 66%。

With category offtake growing at around plus 30% to 35% while the leading brand is supply constrained, we expect ZYN offtake to gradually accelerate in the coming months as in-store availability improves and we reactivate commercial and marketing initiatives. We remain excited about the growth prospects of this dynamic category and its potential to switch legal-age consumers from cigarettes and other traditional forms of tobacco.

由於類別銷售成長約 30% 至 35%，而領先品牌的供應受到限制，我們預計，隨著店內供應的改善以及我們重新啟動商業和行銷計劃，ZYN 的銷售量將在未來幾個月內逐步加速。我們仍然對這一充滿活力的類別的增長前景及其讓法定年齡消費者擺脫香煙和其他傳統形式煙草的潛力感到興奮。

ZYN remains the only nicotine pouch product authorized by the FDA, and this includes all variants in both 3- and 6-milligram strengths currently commercialized in the US. As outlined at CAGNY, there is a large addressable market in the millions of legal-age nicotine users in the US, and we plan to engage more actively beyond our existing consumer base to other legal-age nicotine users.

ZYN 仍然是唯一獲得 FDA 授權的尼古丁袋裝產品，其中包括目前在美國商業化的 3 毫克和 6 毫克強度的所有變體。正如 CAGNY 所概述的，美國數百萬法定年齡的尼古丁使用者中存在著巨大的潛在市場，我們計劃除了現有的消費者群體之外，更積極地吸引其他法定年齡的尼古丁使用者。

Indeed, with strong latent demand and capacity expansion ahead of target, we now raise our shipment forecast to 800 million to 840 million cans for the year. With the outstanding efforts of our team on the ground, we continue to work on increasing capacity in our Kentucky facility.

事實上，由於潛在需求強勁且產能擴張超出目標，我們現在將今年的出貨量預測上調至 8 億至 8.4 億罐。在我們實地團隊的出色努力下，我們將繼續致力於提高肯塔基工廠的產能。

Construction of our second US manufacturing site in Colorado is well underway, with production due to commence in early 2026. We remain, as we have been since entering the US, committed to investing in US manufacturing. The substantial investments we have made in the US are expected to continue to result in significant job creation and economic contribution to the country.

我們位於科羅拉多州的第二個美國製造基地的建設正在順利進行中，預計將於 2026 年初開始生產。自從進入美國以來，我們始終致力於投資美國製造業。我們在美國所做的大量投資預計將繼續為該國創造大量就業機會並做出重大經濟貢獻。

Outside the US, we continue to roll-out ZYN, leveraging our presence with IQOS and VEEV to drive awareness and trial with legal-age nicotine users. The total international nicotine pouch category is nascent in almost all geographies and stands at around half the size of the US in volume terms.

在美國以外，我們繼續推出 ZYN，利用我們在 IQOS 和 VEEV 上的影響力來提高法定年齡尼古丁使用者的認知度和嘗試率。幾乎所有地區的國際尼古丁袋裝菸草總量都處於新興階段，其銷售量約為美國的一半。

We are now in 38 markets globally following Q1 launches in the UAE and Colombia, and ultimately see all addressable markets as meaningful opportunities given the unique characteristics of the category. Within the plus 53% growth of our international pouch can volumes, shipments almost [trebled] outside of the Nordics, including promising momentum in European markets such as Austria, Switzerland, and the UK where we commenced a national key account roll-out.

繼第一季在阿聯酋和哥倫比亞推出產品後，我們目前已進入全球 38 個市場，鑑於該類別的獨特特徵，我們最終將所有可尋址市場視為有意義的機會。在我們的國際袋裝罐銷量增長 53% 的同時，北歐以外地區的出貨量幾乎增長了兩倍，其中包括奧地利、瑞士和英國等歐洲市場的良好發展勢頭，我們已開始在全國範圍內推廣重點客戶。

In emerging markets, strong progress continues in Pakistan, Mexico, and South Africa. PMI Global Travel Retail is a notable standout, as it also increases global visibility and awareness of ZYN within our multicategory offering.

在新興市場，巴基斯坦、墨西哥和南非持續取得強勁成長。PMI 全球旅遊零售是一個顯著的亮點，因為它也提高了 ZYN 在我們的多類別產品中的全球知名度和認知度。

Finally, closing our smoke-free performance with e-vapor. VEEV plays an increasingly important role within our multicategory universe, with growing volumes and gross margins. Shipment volumes doubled year-on-year to 0.6 billion on an equivalent unit basis, driven by very good performance in Europe where the pod segment continued to grow strongly, partially at the expense of disposables given increased bans and restrictions for this format.

最後，以電子蒸氣結束我們的無菸表演。VEEV 在我們的多類別領域中扮演著越來越重要的角色，其銷售和毛利率都在不斷增長。出貨量年增一倍，達到 6 億個等效單位，這得益於歐洲的出色表現，其中煙彈市場繼續強勁增長，但由於對這種形式的禁令和限制增加，部分以犧牲一次性產品的利益為代價。

We observe increasing VEEV ONE adoption rates and low abandonment across key markets, which is testament to the quality and presentation of this premium product to legal-age consumers.

我們觀察到 VEEV ONE 在主要市場的採用率不斷提高，放棄率較低，證明了這款優質產品對法定年齡消費者的品質和展示效果。

Turning to combustibles. Our business performed robustly in Q1 with organic net revenue growth of plus 3.8%, or closer to plus 7% excluding the Indonesia technical impact. This was driven by strong pricing of plus 8.3%, with notable contributions from Turkey, Poland, and Germany. With less favorable timing dynamics in H2, we continue to expect full-year combustible pricing of plus 5% to plus 6%.

轉向可燃物。我們業務在第一季表現強勁，有機淨收入成長 3.8%，若不計印尼技術影響，則接近成長 7%。這是由 8.3% 的強勁定價推動的，其中土耳其、波蘭和德國做出了顯著貢獻。由於下半年的時間動態較不利，我們仍然預計全年可燃物價格將上漲 5% 至 6%。

The cigarette industry declined by 1.3% in Q1 due to growth in geographies where SFPs are nascent or not present, more than offset by accelerated cigarette declines elsewhere. Where SFPs are not permitted, such as in Turkey or India, we expect this divergence to continue, supported in some cases by demographic trends. Nonetheless, we continue to expect a low-single digit cigarette industry decline for the year.

由於 SFP 尚處於萌芽階段或尚未出現地區的成長，菸品產業在第一季度下滑了 1.3%，但其他地區菸品銷量的加速下滑抵消了這一成長。在土耳其或印度等不允許 SFP 的國家，我們預計這種差異將會持續下去，在某些情況下，人口趨勢也會支持這種差異。儘管如此，我們仍然預期今年捲菸產業將出現低個位數的下滑。

Category share was strong, growing 0.4 points in Q1 partly due to positive market mix. Both Marlboro and our global brands portfolio reached all-time first quarter highs.

類別佔有率表現強勁，第一季成長了 0.4 個百分點，部分原因是積極的市場組合。萬寶路和我們的全球品牌組合都創下了第一季的歷史新高。

We continue to target broadly stable category share over time, with our main priorities being maximizing value and supporting the growth of smoke-free products. Most importantly, combustible organic gross profit continued to grow robustly at plus 5.3% following the recovery of 2024.

我們將繼續以長期穩定類別份額為目標，我們的主要優先事項是最大化價值並支持無菸產品的成長。最重要的是，可燃有機毛利在2024年復甦後持續強勁成長，成長率達5.3%。

This brings me to our outlook for 2025. We delivered a very strong first quarter, including better-than-expected margins; and we remain confident we will achieve another year of superior growth. As such, we are reconfirming the currency-neutral growth outlook we provided in February despite a backdrop of increased uncertainty in the global macro-economic environment.

這讓我想到了我們對 2025 年的展望。我們第一季的業績非常強勁，利潤率優於預期；我們仍然相信，我們將在新的一年實現卓越的成長。因此，儘管全球宏觀經濟環境不確定性增加，我們仍重申 2 月提出的貨幣中性成長前景。

As a global company with broadly diversified production and a worldwide supplier network, including an established US manufacturing base, we believe we are well-positioned to mitigate potential supply chain challenges. While the situation is volatile, we do not currently anticipate a material impact on our business from recently introduced or discussed tariffs.

作為一家擁有廣泛多樣化生產和全球供應商網路（包括成熟的美國製造基地）的全球性公司，我們相信我們有能力緩解潛在的供應鏈挑戰。儘管情況不穩定，但我們目前預計最近推出或討論的關稅不會對我們的業務產生重大影響。

We expect a continuation of strong momentum from our smoke-free business, including the benefits of further multicategory deployment. As I explained, we are raising our forecast for US ZYN shipments to 800 million to 840 million cans. This further supports our forecast of plus 12% to plus 14% SFP shipment growth which incorporates unchanged strong growth assumptions for IQOS.

我們預計無菸業務將繼續保持強勁勢頭，包括進一步多類別部署的好處。正如我所解釋的，我們將美國 ZYN 出貨量預測上調至 8 億至 8.4 億罐。這進一步支持了我們對 SFP 出貨量成長 12% 至 14% 的預測，其中納入了 IQOS 強勁成長的不變假設。

We also continue to expect total PMI organic net revenue growth in the range of plus 6% to plus 8%, organic operating income growth of plus 10.5% to plus 12.5%, and currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth of plus 10.5% to plus 12.5%.

我們也繼續預期 PMI 總有機淨收入成長率將在 6% 至 8% 之間，有機營業收入成長率將在 10.5% 至 12.5% 之間，貨幣中性調整後稀釋每股盈餘成長率將在 10.5% 至 12.5% 之間。

As announced in this morning’s press release, we are raising our 2025 adjusted diluted EPS forecast to $7.36 to $7.49. This now reflects plus 12% to plus 14% growth in dollar terms and includes a favorable estimated currency impact of $0.10 at prevailing exchange rates. This reflects recent strength in the euro, Japanese yen, and Russian ruble, partly offset by a stronger Swiss franc.

正如今天上午的新聞稿中宣布的那樣，我們將2025年調整後稀釋每股收益預測上調至7.36美元至7.49美元。這反映了以美元計算的12%至14%的成長，並包含了以現行匯率計算的0.10美元的有利匯率影響。這反映了歐元、日圓和俄羅斯盧布近期的強勢，但被瑞士法郎的走強部分抵消。

For Q2, we assume HTU shipment volumes of 37.5 billion to 38.5 billion, with another strong quarter of HTU-adjusted IMS growth of around plus 10%. For US ZYN, we expect shipments to be at a similar level to Q1, as trade restocking continues and offtake gradually accelerates.

對於第二季度，我們預計 HTU 出貨量為 375 億至 385 億，經 HTU 調整後的 IMS 將再創強勁成長季，增幅約 10%。對於美國 ZYN，隨著貿易補貨的持續進行和採購的逐漸加速，我們預計出貨量將與第一季保持相似的水平。

We forecast adjusted diluted EPS of $1.80 to $1.85, including a favorable currency variance of $0.06 at prevailing rates. We expect a strong H1 overall, with organic net revenue growth around the high end of our target range for the full year, and organic OI growth slightly above.

我們預測調整後的稀釋每股收益為 1.80 美元至 1.85 美元，包括以現行匯率計算的 0.06 美元的有利貨幣差異。我們預計上半年業績整體表現強勁，有機淨收入成長將達到我們全年目標範圍的高端左右，有機營業利潤成長將略高於這一水準。

With regard to our balance sheet, deleveraging remains a key priority. And we continue to target further reduction in 2025, placing us on track for our target ratio of around 2 times by the end of 2026.

就我們的資產負債表而言，去槓桿仍然是首要任務。我們繼續設定 2025 年進一步減少的目標，以便我們能夠在 2026 年底實現 2 倍左右的目標比率。

We believe our growth profile is best in class within large-cap consumer goods, as shown by our three-year CAGR targets which we are well on track to meet or exceed. Adjusted diluted EPS growth in dollar terms is a key priority and, as demonstrated in 2024, we are committed to taking proactive steps to manage potential currency volatility, including through our hedging activities.

我們相信，我們的成長狀況在大型消費品產業中是最佳的，這從我們三年複合年增長率目標可以看出，我們有望實現或超越這一目標。以美元計算的調整後稀釋每股盈餘成長是首要任務，正如 2024 年所表明的那樣，我們致力於採取積極措施來管理潛在的貨幣波動，包括透過對沖活動。

Behind the delivery of our growth lie the enormous efforts we have made to transform our business over the last 10 years and the continued drive towards our ambition to become substantially smoke-free. This quarter coincides with the publication of the sixth edition of our annual integrated report, which provides a comprehensive view of our company’s performance across both financial and non-financial dimensions.

我們實現成長的背後是我們過去 10 年來為轉型業務所付出的巨大努力，以及為實現基本無菸目標所做的持續努力。本季恰逢我們發布第六版年度綜合報告，該報告全面介紹了我們公司在財務和非財務層面的表現。

Highlights include the important efforts and actions we are taking with regards to youth access prevention, as well as the progress we have made on our operational efficiency, strengthening our resilience, driving innovation, and ultimately future-proofing our business.

亮點包括我們在預防青少年接觸方面所做的重要努力和採取的行動，以及我們在提高營運效率、增強韌性、推動創新以及最終確保業務未來發展方面所取得的進展。

As explained in the report, our approach to sustainability is fundamentally business driven, with the objective of both sustaining and enhancing the growth of our smoke-free transformation to drive continued value creation. I would encourage anyone with an interest in how and why we are transforming to read it.

正如報告中所解釋的，我們的永續發展方法從根本上來說是由業務驅動的，目標是維持和加強無菸轉型的成長，以推動持續的價值創造。我鼓勵任何對我們如何以及為何轉變感興趣的人閱讀它。

I will now conclude today’s presentation with some key messages. Following an excellent start to the year, we are on track for another year of strong performance in 2025. While no company is immune to macro-economic volatility, we believe we are well positioned to navigate external dynamics.

現在，我將用一些關鍵訊息來結束今天的演講。繼今年出色的開局之後，我們預計在 2025 年再次取得強勁表現。雖然沒有一家公司能夠免受宏觀經濟波動的影響，但我們相信我們有能力應對外部動態。

We have three powerful growth drivers, with pricing power and positive smoke-free category mix on top of volume growth, where we target our fifth consecutive year of expansion led by IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV. As we continue to invest strongly behind our smoke-free brands, these drivers are also profit-accretive. And combined with our proactive measures on pricing and cost, we have great confidence in sustainable adjusted diluted EPS growth in both currency-neutral and dollar terms.

我們擁有三大強勁的成長動力，即定價能力和積極的無菸類別組合以及銷售成長，我們的目標是在 IQOS、ZYN 和 VEEV 的帶動下實現連續第五年的擴張。隨著我們繼續大力投資無菸品牌，這些驅動因素也帶來了利潤的成長。結合我們在定價和成本方面的積極措施，我們對以貨幣中性和美元計算的可持續調整後稀釋每股收益增長充滿信心。

Finally, we remain a highly cash-generative business with an unwavering commitment to our progressive dividend policy. We look forward to further rewarding our shareholders as our transformation delivers sustainable growth.

最後，我們仍然是一家現金流充沛的企業，並堅定不移地致力於推行漸進式股利政策。隨著我們的轉型實現永續成長，我們期待進一步回報我們的股東。

Thank you. We are now very happy to answer your questions.

謝謝。我們現在非常高興回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。

I had a few questions on ZYN. Could you maybe give us more color on the out-of-stock issues you might still be experiencing in the US? I know you touched on this, but then just curious how long you think it will take for retailers to rebuild their inventories.

我對 ZYN 有幾個疑問。您能否向我們詳細介紹一下您在美國可能仍然遇到的缺貨問題？我知道您提到了這一點，但我只是好奇您認為零售商需要多長時間才能重建庫存。

And I know you raised your shipment guidance for ZYN for the year, but it does still imply that growth will decelerate year over year to around, I think, 35% for the rest of the year. This is at the low end of your range versus, I guess, the 53% you reported this quarter. So just hoping you could talk through the thinking behind this, maybe just the phasing.

我知道您提高了今年 ZYN 的出貨量預期，但這仍然意味著今年剩餘時間的成長率將年減至 35% 左右。我想，與您本季度報告的 53% 相比，這是您預期範圍的低端。所以只是希望您能談談這背後的想法，也許只是分階段。

Sure, Bonnie. Happy to do that. So of course, we are facing a particular year in 2025 with ZYN in the US because it's going to be a mix of continuation of strong growth and strong consumer offtake growth.

當然，邦妮。很高興這樣做。因此，當然，2025 年對於 ZYN 在美國來說是一個特殊的年份，因為它將持續保持強勁增長，消費者購買量也將強勁增長。

Of course, when you look at the shipment, be careful. And I flagged that in my remarks because last year, we had clearly consumer offtake in Q1, which was much, much stronger than our shipment. That was the time when the consumer started to empty the shelves.

當然，看貨的時候一定要小心。我之所以在我的評論中提到這一點，是因為去年第一季我們的消費者購買量明顯高於我們的出貨量。那時正是消費者開始清空貨架的時候。

So we need to be cautious when we look at the shipment if they are now reflecting the consumer offtake and take that into account. And next to the strong growth that we expect from consumer offtake -- and we have a very dynamic category, 30% to 35% growth, despite the fact that the leader ZYN was constrained. We're going to add on top of that this replenishment, this restocking.

因此，我們在查看發貨情況時需要謹慎，看看它們是否反映了消費者的需求，並將其考慮在內。除了我們預期消費者購買量將實現強勁成長之外，我們還擁有一個非常有活力的類別，儘管領導者 ZYN 受到限制，但仍實現了 30% 至 35% 的成長率。在此基礎上，我們還將增加補貨和補貨。

I'm not going to speculate on exactly what it is, but it's certainly a few tens of million can. And we have started because of this good performance on production that I explained to send more product to, first of all, wholesalers, distributors. And themselves, they're going to start to ship to retailers. So it's going to be a very gradual process.

我不會猜測它到底是多少，但肯定是幾千萬罐。由於生產表現良好，我們開始向批發商和分銷商發送更多產品。他們自己也將開始向零售商出貨。所以這將會是一個非常漸進的過程。

There are still, of course, very, I would say, material situation of out of stock. We're going to continue the replenishment in the second quarter, maybe part of the third quarter as well. And we've been explaining that we explained -- we are expecting to be back to a normalized situation, if I may. Therefore, no more material out-of-stock situation in the third quarter of '25.

當然，我想說，缺貨的情況仍然非常嚴重。我們將在第二季繼續補貨，或許在第三季的部分時間也將繼續補貨。我們一直在解釋，我們期待恢復正常狀態，如果可以的話。因此，25年第三季不再出現材料缺貨的情況。

So in terms of shipment, that's going to be this profile through the year of and accelerating growth for our shipments. That's what we expect, which is going to reflect, first, the consumer effect that is going to accelerate.

因此，就出貨量而言，這將是全年的概況，並且我們的出貨量將加速成長。這正是我們所期望的，首先，這將反映出消費者效應的加速。

And then, of course, replenishment impact, that is going to decrease as we fulfill this replenishment, if you want. So it's a particular profile, and the replenishment, if you want, to some extent, is going to hide the fact that there is a growth in the consumer offtake that we're going to experience through the year.

當然，如果您願意的話，隨著我們完成補貨，補貨的影響將會減少。因此，這是一個特殊的概況，如果你願意的話，補貨在某種程度上會掩蓋我們全年將經歷的消費者購買量成長的事實。

That's helpful. I appreciate it. And then just maybe a second question from me on margins.

這很有幫助。我很感激。然後我可能還有第二個問題關於利潤率。

You delivered robust margin expansion in the quarter. So how should we think about the drivers of continued margin expansion for the remaining of the year, I guess especially in the context of what you mentioned as it relates to continued SG&A growth and the investments, et cetera?

本季度，你們實現了利潤率的強勁成長。那麼，我們應該如何看待今年剩餘時間內利潤率持續擴張的驅動因素，我想尤其是在您提到的與持續的銷售、一般和行政費用增長以及投資等相關的背景下？

And then on the back of that, I know we've talked about this before. But how should we also think about the margin gap you're seeing between your combustible business and then smoke-free products today and then possibly key drivers of further expansion of that gap over the next couple of years?

關於這一點，我知道我們之前已經討論過這個問題。但是，我們應該如何看待您目前看到的可燃業務和無菸產品之間的利潤差距，以及未來幾年進一步擴大這一差距的關鍵驅動因素？

Look, Bonnie, obviously, we are very pleased with our margin expansion. That's something we are targeting for '25, and we are very positive about our expectation. We have a clear illustration in Q1 of the strong performance in terms of margin expansion.

邦妮，你看，顯然，我們對利潤率的擴大感到非常滿意。這是我們 25 年的目標，我們對此抱持著非常樂觀的期望。我們在第一季清楚地展示了利潤率擴張方面的強勁表現。

Clearly, our smoke-free products are here driving this, first and foremost, margin expansion. You have an impressive 670 basis points organic expansion in Q1 for our smoke-free business. Don't take that as a reference for the full year, but that means that we are now above 70% gross margin rate for the smoke-free business.

顯然，我們的無菸產品首先推動了利潤率的擴大。我們的無菸業務在第一季實現了令人印象深刻的 670 個基點的有機成長。不要將此作為全年的參考，但這意味著我們現在無菸業務的毛利率已超過 70%。

It's 5 percentage points higher than combustible. So as we are growing, of course, very fast our smoke-free business and faster than combustible, that means that we are benefiting at the margin level of a very positive mix evolution. And we believe that the difference to '25 should stay between smoke-free and combustible.

比可燃物高出5個百分點。因此，隨著我們的無菸業務快速成長，其成長速度甚至超過了可燃業務，這意味著我們在非常積極的混合演變的利潤水平上受益。我們相信，與 25 的區別應該在於無菸和可燃之間。

I'm not saying it's going to stay exactly at the same level, but we're going to keep a very material difference between the two. And we're going to continue to benefit from this positive mix effect.

我並不是說它會保持完全相同的水平，但我們會保持兩者之間的實質差異。我們將繼續受益於這種正面的組合效應。

I think for the future, there are a number of drivers that will continue to play on the margin for our smoke-free portfolio. There is, of course, mix coming from ZYN. ZYN in the US is the best-in-class gross profit margin. So when we grow ZYN fast in the US, that has a positive impact.

我認為，就未來而言，有許多驅動因素將繼續影響我們無菸產品組合的利潤。當然，還有來自 ZYN 的混合。ZYN在美國的毛利率是同類中最好的。因此，當我們在美國快速發展 ZYN 時，會產生正面的影響。

You have all the scale impact that we are generating on IQOS. And if you look at the last two to three years, you've seen on a very consistent basis a gradual improvement of margin on IQOS. This is certainly magnified in the first quarter because we have a less sale of device.

您已經看到了我們在 IQOS 上產生的所有規模影響。如果你回顧過去兩三年，你會發現 IQOS 的利潤率持續穩定提高。由於我們的設備銷售量較少，這一現象肯定會在第一季放大。

Last year, we had big device sale in Japan as we were launching ILUMA i. So that is helping the margin. But fundamentally, we are benefiting from scale impact, productivity, and a better performance on device.

去年，我們在日本推出了ILUMA i，銷量很好，這對利潤率有幫助。但從根本上來說，我們受益於規模經濟、生產力以及更好的設備性能。

And then we have some pricing that we have seen 3% on consumable for our smoke-free business. So we are increasing price as well.

然後，我們看到無菸業務的消耗品定價為 3%。所以我們也會提高價格。

And last element, which is more marginal today, but we are also improving the margin on VEEV. So that it's also helping. So as you can see, we have many positive drivers behind our smoke-free business, and smoke-free business is the driver for -- or the first driver for margin improvement.

最後一個因素，今天比較邊緣，但我們也在提高 VEEV 的邊緣。這樣它也有幫助。因此，正如您所看到的，我們的無菸業務背後有許多積極的驅動力，而無菸業務是利潤率提高的驅動力——或者說是利潤率提高的第一個驅動力。

Matt Smith, Stifel.

馬特史密斯（Matt Smith），Stifel。

If we could first talk about the guidance outlook. With the strong first quarter and now the second quarter guidance, the first half EPS growth on a constant currency basis is a few points above the high end for your year outlook, can you talk about the factors in the second half that we should take consideration with the constant currency EPS growth outlook implied to be a couple of points below the full-year average by my math, just the shape of the year there?

如果我們可以先談談指導前景。由於第一季業績強勁，加上現在的第二季指引，上半年以固定匯率計算的每股盈餘成長比您預測的全年最高值高出幾個點，您能否談談下半年我們應該考慮的因素？根據我的計算，以固定匯率計算的每股盈餘成長前景比全年平均低幾個點，這只是今年的情況？

Sure, Matt. Happy to take that one. So yes, we are saying that we expect to be well positioned versus the overall bracket for the year in terms of revenue growth. We expect to be a bit above on OI. Now, these are the traditional difference that you can see during the year between H1 and H2.

當然，馬特。很高興接受這個。所以是的，我們預計在收入成長方面，今年我們的整體收入將處於有利地位。我們預計 OI 會略高一些。現在，這些是您在一年中可以看到 H1 和 H2 之間的傳統差異。

You may have some comparison basis that can play. There is potentially some phasing on how we're going to position SG&A. So there is, here, nothing to be read, I think, in terms of change in the underlying business between H1 and H2.

你可能有一些可以玩的比較基礎。我們可能會分階段調整銷售、一般和行政費用的定位。因此，我認為，就 H1 和 H2 之間的基礎業務變化而言，這裡沒有什麼可讀的。

These are more how a number of things are positioned in terms of shipment through the year in terms of investments. But I would say we expect a strong year through the -- as we go through the quarters.

這些更多的是關於從投資角度來看全年發貨情況的一些物品的定位。但我想說的是，隨著我們度過各個季度，我們預計今年將會是強勁的一年。

And we've been flagging the fact, for instance, that we expect in some area an acceleration for IQOS in the second half in terms of IMS. But that's not going to necessarily translate into shipment as the phasing for shipment can be a bit different.

例如，我們一直在強調這樣一個事實：就 IMS 而言，我們預計下半年 IQOS 在某些領域將加速發展。但這並不一定會轉化為裝運，因為裝運的階段可能會有點不同。

So again, I think we expect strong momentum through the year for our smoke-free portfolio. We've been flagging the fact that on combustible, we are positive in volume in Q1. But for the year, we expect a low single-digit decline. So that could mean that the second part of the year will have more negative volume for our combustible. But clearly, we expect strength through the year.

因此，我再次認為，我們預計今年我們的無菸產品組合將保持強勁成長動能。我們一直在強調，就可燃物而言，我們在第一季的銷售量是正面的。但我們預計今年的降幅將維持在個位數以下。所以這可能意味著今年下半年我們的可燃物負產量將會更大。但顯然，我們預計全年都會表現強勁。

As a follow-up, I wanted to talk about the IMS growth you referenced for IQOS. You had nice growth in the first quarter. I think it was above 9%. But if we look back to the fourth quarter, it was around 13%. Now, you're expecting a reacceleration to IMS in -- IQOS IMS growth across the remainder of 2025. So can you talk about some of the underlying benefits to IMS growth reaccelerating across the rest of 2025?

作為後續，我想談談您提到的 IQOS 的 IMS 成長。你們在第一季取得了良好的成長。我認為它高於9％。但如果我們回顧第四季度，這一比例約為 13%。現在，您預計 2025 年剩餘時間內 IQOS IMS 的成長將再次加速。那麼，您能談談 2025 年剩餘時間內 IMS 成長重新加速的一些潛在好處嗎？

Yeah. So indeed, 9.4% was in line with our expectations. They are -- and Europe was below the average. So there are always a turbulence coming from the flavor ban implementation in Europe. We believe that the impact will be lower in H2 as we go through annualization.

是的。因此，9.4% 確實符合我們的預期。是的——而且歐洲低於平均。因此，歐洲實施調味品禁令總是會帶來動盪。我們相信，隨著我們進行年度化，下半年的影響將會降低。

And therefore, we expect in H2 an acceleration, as I mentioned, in the IMS growth in the second half in Europe. But otherwise, we are expecting this 10% to 12% adjusted IMS growth through the year. So we expect overall a continuation of a nice double-digit growth.

因此，正如我所提到的，我們預計下半年歐洲的 IMS 成長將加速。但除此之外，我們預計全年調整後的 IMS 成長率將達到 10% 至 12%。因此，我們預計總體上將繼續保持兩位數的良好成長。

Q4 was very strong after a few quarters that had been weaker last year, so we can have some phasing through the year. But after this Q1, which was in line with expectation, we expect continuation of growth in Europe, in Japan. And I took some time in my remarks to talk about the other market where we see also some very promising growth in several markets.

在經歷了去年幾季的疲軟之後，第四季表現非常強勁，因此我們可以在今年分階段實現這一目標。但在第一季符合預期之後，我們預計歐洲和日本將繼續成長。我在演講中花了一些時間談論其他市場，我們也看到一些市場出現了非常有希望的成長。

Eric Serotta, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Eric Serotta。

In terms of the full-year guidance, you did raise the ZYN shipment volumes. And obviously, that's a very high-margin product. You kept the constant currency EPS the same. You delivered some very, very robust margin expansion in the first half.

就全年預期而言，您確實提高了 ZYN 的出貨量。顯然，這是一種利潤非常高的產品。您維持固定貨幣每股盈餘 (EPS) 不變。你們在上半年實現了非常強勁的利潤成長。

Are there any specific offsets that you could point to that caused you to reiterate the guidance rather than flow some more through to the full year? Or is it more of a factor that we're early in the year and there's obviously a lot of macro and geopolitical uncertainty?

您能否指出一些具體的抵銷因素，導致您重申指導意見，而不是將更多的資金投入全年？或者更重要的是，我們正處於年初，顯然存在著許多宏觀和地緣政治不確定性？

Thank you, Eric, for the question. So indeed, we were targeting a year of very strong growth and performance. And I think Q1 is flagging the fact that we are well on track to deliver a year of strong growth. So we are confirming that we expect a year of very strong growth across the board for PMI.

謝謝 Eric 提出的問題。因此，我們確實希望今年能夠實現非常強勁的成長和業績。我認為第一季顯示我們正順利實現今年的強勁成長。因此，我們確認，我們預計 PMI 今年將全面實現強勁成長。

What we've seen in Q1 is indeed very assuring on the fact that we're going to deliver this strong year. We are raising the guidance volume for ZYN in the US by, an average, 20 million cans. So yes, it is a very profitable brand, but not to the extent to dramatically change the outlook for the year.

我們在第一季看到的情況確實非常有信心，我們今年將會取得強勁的業績。我們將美國 ZYN 的指導銷量平均提高 2,000 萬罐。所以，是的，這是一個非常有利可圖的品牌，但還不足以徹底改變今年的前景。

So I would say that goes into a scenario in which we are playing to give the guidance for the year. And obviously, after only one quarter and in this uncertain volatile environment, we need to, of course, be cautious and say this is the beginning of the year.

所以我想說，這屬於我們正在進行的為今年提供指導的情景。顯然，僅僅一個季度之後，在這種不確定、動盪的環境中，我們當然需要謹慎，說這只是一年的開始。

And we are happy to confirm the guidance. Again, I think Q1 is showing that we are well on track to deliver a very good 2025.

我們很高興確認該指導。再次，我認為第一季表明我們正朝著實現 2025 年美好目標邁進。

Great. And then a quick follow-up. How are you guys thinking about what the unconstrained growth -- for what the unconstrained offtake growth for ZYN theoretically looks like? Obviously, you can't observe it. You could estimate it.

偉大的。然後進行快速跟進。你們如何看待不受約束的成長——理論上 ZYN 不受約束的成長是什麼樣的？顯然，你無法觀察到它。你可以估算一下。

But how are you thinking about how that evolves, where it is today and how it evolves as you get into the second half and next year where the business is obviously a lot larger than when you bought it? So really, you can't give a precise answer, but any color there would be helpful.

但是您如何看待它將如何發展，它現在的狀況如何，以及進入下半年和明年它將如何發展，屆時業務顯然會比您收購時規模大得多？所以實際上，你無法給出一個精確的答案，但任何顏色都會有幫助。

Eric, frankly, we don't know, of course, what is the unconstrained demand because the demand is still constrained. So I'm not able to provide an answer.

艾瑞克，坦白說，我們當然不知道什麼是不受約束的需求，因為需求仍然受到約束。所以我無法提供答案。

What I can say is that certainly, as we are removing the limitation and the out-of-stock situation, we expect an acceleration in the consumer offtake. And we are very much encouraged by the very nice dynamism of the category, which show the appeal that we have for the consumer and all these legal-age nicotine users that are discovering the category and understand the benefits.

我可以肯定地說，隨著我們消除限制和缺貨情況，我們預計消費者購買量將會加速成長。該類別產品的良好活力令我們深受鼓舞，這表明我們對消費者以及所有正在發現該類別並了解其好處的法定年齡尼古丁使用者俱有吸引力。

So we expect the acceleration. We're going to be gradually back to normal life because it's true. We've been mentioning that we had very limited commercial marketing activities. So we were trying to service the existing ZYN consumer, and we knew that it was not reasonable to try to acquire new consumers at that time that we could not serve and supply.

因此我們預計其將會加速。我們將逐步恢復正常生活，因為這是事實。我們一直提到，我們的商業行銷活動非常有限。因此，我們試圖為現有的 ZYN 消費者提供服務，我們知道，在當時我們無法服務和供應的情況下，試圖獲取新消費者是不合理的。

So obviously, there's also another leg of the growth in the coming quarter. And I guess that's certainly something you include in unconstrained them. But frankly, I don't want to speculate on what this unconstrained demand is going to be. We are expecting a gradual acceleration of the consumer uptake for ZYN in the coming months.

因此顯然，下一季還會出現另一個成長階段。我想這肯定是你在不受約束的情況下所包含的內容。但坦白說，我不想猜測這種不受約束的需求將會是什麼。我們預計未來幾個月消費者對 ZYN 的接受度將逐步加快。

Fair enough. And then just one quick last one. You did cite the Nielsen data in terms of ZYN. Are you seeing different trends or diverging trends when you look at some of the non-track channels that you would have a better read on than we would?

很公平。最後再說一句。您確實引用了尼爾森關於 ZYN 的數據。當您查看一些比我們更了解的非軌道管道時，您是否看到了不同的趨勢或分歧趨勢？

Well, I mean, I certainly don't want to say that Nielsen is not an interesting data point. But of course, it's 3,000 sales points. And in the universe, that probably is close to 200,000. And when you are an out of stock situation, you can create some distortion on the perception of the consumer offtake.

嗯，我的意思是，我當然不想說尼爾森不是一個有趣的數據點。但當然，這是 3,000 個銷售點。在宇宙中，這個數字可能接近 200,000。當出現缺貨情況時，可能會對消費者的購買認知產生一些扭曲。

So I'm not able to say whether the 15% -- I mean, we know it's an estimate. What I was reporting is the MSA -- so the very nice acceleration towards the end of March of the sales from wholesaler and distributor to retailers, that's the other point that we have. But we don't have any other, I would say, reliable data we could share with you.

所以我無法確定 15% 是否——我的意思是，我們知道這只是一個估計值。我所報告的是 MSA——3 月底批發商和分銷商到零售商的銷售額出現了非常好的成長，這是我們所掌握的另一點。但我想說，我們沒有其他可靠的數據可以與您分享。

We can send in the market, the very strong underlying demand for ZYN. That's very clear. And I also flagged the fact that the consumer offtake -- so what Nielsen measured last year for first quarter than probably significantly higher than the 130 million can that we reported for the quarter -- the first quarter of 2024. So that was the basis on which you should apply the 15% if the 15% is accurate to have an idea of the consumer offtake today.

我們可以向市場傳遞對 ZYN 非常強勁的潛在需求。這非常清楚。我還指出，尼爾森去年第一季測量的消費者購買量可能比我們報告的 2024 年第一季的 1.3 億罐高得多。因此，如果 15% 是準確的，那麼這就是應用 15% 的基礎，以便了解當今的消費者購買量。

(Operator Instructions) Faham Baig, UBS.

（操作員指示）Faham Baig，瑞銀。

A couple of questions from me as well. Just coming back to the growth adds and the offtake, are you in a position to potentially share what the MSA data highlights is the growth rate for ZYN and how it really compares to this 30% to 35% growth you highlight for the category?

我也有幾個問題。回到成長增加和銷售量的話題，您是否可以分享 MSA 數據強調的 ZYN 的成長率，以及它與您強調的該類別 30% 到 35% 的成長率相比如何？

The second question, sticking with the US and IQOS. I just wanted to get your views on the recent movements at the CTP and how that impacts the timing of ILUMA's launch in the market or whether it does impact the timing of the launch would be helpful.

第二個問題，堅持美國和IQOS。我只是想了解您對 CTP 近期動向的看法，以及這對 ILUMA 在市場上推出的時間有何影響，或者是否確實會影響推出的時間。

And the final question is really housekeeping. Net interest guidance for the year would be helpful.

最後一個問題其實是內部事務。年度淨利息指導將會有所幫助。

Sorry, I missed the last question, Faham..

抱歉，我錯過了最後一個問題，Faham…

The net interest cost guidance for the year would be helpful, please.

請提供本年度的淨利息成本指導，這將會很有幫助。

Yeah. So taking your question in the order, growth of the -- I think we said that the share was close to 66% on MSA in March. It's probably a growth close to 30%, but take that with a pinch of salt. I'm not sure I have a very precise data. But clearly, the MSA was showing the deceleration as more products was coming. So that's one thing.

是的。因此，請按照順序回答您的問題，增長情況——我想我們說過，3 月份 MSA 的份額接近 66%。這可能是接近 30% 的成長，但對此我們持保留態度。我不確定我是否有非常精確的數據。但顯然，隨著更多產品的推出，MSA 正在呈現減速趨勢。這是一回事。

On the new situation at the CTP and what it means for IQOS, no, it's too early to say. So we have nothing to report. And I don't know what is going to happen. I think we are still hoping for an efficient process to be put in place and for the FDA to comply with the mandate, which was to give answer after six months. But I have nothing at that stage new to report on this situation.

關於 CTP 的新情況及其對 IQOS 意味著什麼，現在說還為時過早。所以我們沒有什麼好報告的。我不知道接下來會發生什麼事。我認為我們仍然希望建立一個高效的流程，並希望 FDA 遵守規定，即在六個月後給予答案。但目前我還沒有任何有關這一情況的新消息可以報告。

And on the net interest for the year, I think you have a performance in Q1. I don't have at that stage, nothing specific to tell you for the full year. We're not providing any additional data for the full year. But of course, we started well the year, nevertheless, with some positive incoming from mark-to-market on some of our hedging.

就今年的淨利息而言，我認為您在第一季的表現不錯。目前我還沒有關於全年的具體消息可以告訴你。我們不會提供任何全年的額外數據。但當然，儘管如此，我們今年的開局還是不錯的，我們的一些對沖交易從市價調整中獲得了積極的收益。

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn it back to James Bushnell for closing remarks.

謝謝。我目前沒有其他問題。我想請詹姆斯布希內爾作最後發言。

Thank you. That concludes our call today. Please be aware that the script from the call is posted on our website for any of you that may have had some sound issues partway through the webcast broadcast.

謝謝。今天的通話到此結束。請注意，通話腳本已發佈在我們的網站上，以便您在網路直播過程中遇到聲音問題時可以參考。

Thank you very much for joining us. If you have any follow-up questions, please do contact the investor relations team. Thank you again and have a nice day.

非常感謝您加入我們。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係團隊。再次感謝您並祝您有愉快的一天。

Thank you all and speak to you soon. Thank you.

謝謝大家，我們很快會再聯絡您。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。