菲利普莫里斯國際 (PM) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Philip Morris International Inc 2025 fourth quarter results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, James Bushnell, VP of Investor Relations and Financial Communications. Please go ahead.

您好，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加菲利普莫里斯國際公司2025年第四季業績電話會議。（操作人員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。現在我謹將會議交給今天的主講人，投資者關係和財務傳播副總裁詹姆斯·布希內爾先生。請繼續。

Welcome. Thank you for joining us. Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2025 fourth quarter and full year results. The press release is available on our website at pmi.com. A glossary of terms, including the definition for smoke-free products as well as adjustments, other calculations and reconciliations to the most directly comparable US GAAP measures for non-GAAP financial measures cited in this presentation are available in the company's Form 8-K dated today's date and on our IR website.

歡迎。感謝您的參與。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含有關我們 2025 年第四季和全年業績的詳細資訊。新聞稿可在公司網站 pmi.com 上查閱。本簡報中引用的非公認會計準則財務指標的術語表（包括無菸產品的定義以及調整、其他計算和與最直接可比較的美國公認會計準則指標的調節表）可在公司今天發布的 8-K 表格和我們的投資者關係網站上查閱。

Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results. I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements.

今天的演講包含對未來業績的前瞻性陳述和預測。請各位注意今天簡報和新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明和警示性聲明揭露，以了解可能導致實際結果與預測或前瞻性聲明有重大差異的各種因素。

I'm joined today by Jacek Olczak, Group CEO of PMI; and Emmanuel Babeau, Chief Financial Officer. Over to you, Jacek.

今天和我一起的有 PMI 集團執行長 Jacek Olczak 和財務長 Emmanuel Babeau。接下來就交給你了，傑克。

Thank you, James, and welcome, everyone. 2025 was another outstanding year for PMI. The shift of adult smokers to better alternatives is the lasting structural movement, one that we continue to lead and from which we are generating strong sustained growth. Our leading global position in smoke-free products enable us to deliver a fifth consecutive year of positive volumes with a rapid top line progress and significant margin expansion.

謝謝詹姆斯，也歡迎各位。 2025年對PMI來說又是輝煌的一年。成年吸菸者轉向更好的替代品是一種持久的結構性趨勢，我們將繼續引領這一趨勢，並從中獲得強勁的持續成長。我們在無菸產品領域的全球領先地位使我們能夠連續第五年實現銷售成長，同時營收快速成長，利潤率顯著提高。

We grew our smoke-free products volumes by an excellent 12.8%, with the increasing profitability of the portfolio reflected in organic smoke-free gross profit growth of 18.7%. IQOS remains the core driver, with both shipments and adjusted IMS growing around 11%. This includes an impressive acceleration in the fourth quarter with a return to strong double-digit growth in Italy and a very promising start in Taiwan, just two examples of the broad growth across geographies.

我們的無菸產品銷售量實現了 12.8% 的顯著成長，產品組合獲利能力的提升也體現在無菸產品有機毛利成長 18.7% 上。IQOS 仍然是核心驅動力，出貨量和調整後的 IMS 均成長了約 11%。這其中包括第四季度令人矚目的加速成長，義大利恢復了強勁的兩位數成長，台灣也取得了非常可喜的開局，這只是各地普遍成長的兩個例子。

This performance also reflects the success of our multi-category strategy with both ZYN ex Nordic and VEEV more than doubling shipment volumes in international markets. Our strong brand offering, which includes high-quality science-backed products in all three smoke-free products categories, allows us to better serve consumers and enhance our financial performance.

這項業績也反映了我們多品類策略的成功，ZYN ex Nordic 和 VEEV 在國際市場的出貨量均翻了一番以上。我們強大的品牌實力，涵蓋所有三個無菸產品類別的高品質、科學驗證的產品，使我們能夠更好地服務消費者，並提升我們的財務表現。

While the nicotine pouch category remains nascent in most geographies, ZYN gained significant international share as we expanded the product portfolio and market reach. The more established e-vapor category, VEEV is the fastest-growing brand of any major player in international closed pods and holds the number one position in eight markets with a substantial increase in gross profit.

雖然尼古丁袋品類​​在大多數地區仍處於起步階段，但隨著我們擴大產品組合和市場覆蓋範圍，ZYN 獲得了顯著的國際市場份額。VEEV 是電子煙領域較成熟的品牌，也是國際封閉式煙彈領域主要參與者中成長最快的品牌，在八個市場中佔據第一的位置，毛利大幅成長。

Although our performance continues to be fueled by the international business, we generated the vast majority of total PMI organic net revenue growth led by SFPs. We have a substantial opportunity in the US, where ZYN grew shipments by 37% despite supply constraints in the first half, a significant price premium and the competitive portfolio gaps. Our Aspeya wellness business also grew organic net revenue strongly.

儘管我們的業績繼續受到國際業務的推動，但 PMI 有機淨收入成長的絕大部分是由 SFP 引領的。我們在美國擁有巨大的發展機會。儘管上半年供應受限、價格溢價較高且產品組合存在競爭差距，但 ZYN 的出貨量仍成長了 37%。我們的 Aspeya 健康業務也實現了強勁的有機淨收入成長。

Combustibles delivered robust top and bottom-line performance, notwithstanding a more normalized industry volume decline and supply chain issues in Turkey. We accomplished this with strong pricing, portfolio resilience and disciplined execution, with Marlboro reaching a historic high share. Managing this business responsibly enables us to invest boldly in better alternatives and sustain our smoke-free momentum.

儘管土耳其的產業銷售出現較為正常的下滑，且供應鏈出現問題，但可燃物業務仍實現了強勁的營收和利潤成長。我們憑藉強有力的定價策略、穩健的產品組合和嚴謹的執行力實現了這一目標，萬寶路的市佔率達到了歷史新高。負責任地經營這項業務，使我們能夠大膽投資於更好的替代方案，並保持我們無菸的勢頭。

Together, these factors enabled us to deliver 15% adjusted diluted EPS growth in dollar terms, the strongest growth since 2011, excluding the pandemic recovery year of 2021. This reflects currency-neutral growth of 14%, well above our expectations at the start of the year and the second year of mid-teens progress.

綜合這些因素，我們實現了經調整後的稀釋每股收益（以美元計）增長 15%，這是自 2011 年以來最強勁的增長（不包括 2021 年疫情恢復期）。這反映了以固定匯率計算的14%的成長，遠超我們年初的預期，也是連續第二年實現兩位數以上的成長。

Indeed, we have successfully achieved our three-year CAGR targets for organic OI and currency-neutral EPS in two years. With another strong performance expected in 2026, despite some transitory headwinds, we are today renewing these growth targets for the next three years, further validating our best-in-class growth profile within the consumer-packaged goods.

事實上，我們僅用了兩年時間就成功實現了有機營業收入和固定匯率每股收益的三年複合年增長率目標。儘管存在一些暫時的不利因素，但預計 2026 年仍將保持強勁的業績，因此我們今天重申未來三年的成長目標，進一步驗證了我們在消費品包裝領域一流的成長狀況。

Importantly, this is accompanied by strong and increasing cash generation, and we target a leverage ratio of close to 2x by the end of 2026 at prevailing exchange rates. With our dividend payout now close to our objective of around 75% of adjusted diluted EPS, this provides capacity for strong returns to shareholders.

重要的是，同時，現金流強勁且不斷成長，我們的目標是在 2026 年底前，以當前匯率計算，槓桿率接近 2 倍。目前我們的股息支付率已接近調整後稀釋每股收益的 75% 左右的目標，這為股東帶來強勁的回報提供了可能。

Before I turn it over to Emmanuel, I would like to highlight the achievement of several important milestones as we entered the second decade of our smoke-free journey. Our total net revenues reached over $40 billion in 2025 were 41.5% or close to $17 billion generated by our smoke-free business. Even more impressive is the smoke-free gross profit contribution, which has essentially doubled in five years to 43% of total PMI.

在將發言權交給伊曼紐爾之前，我想先重點介紹一下我們在無菸之旅進入第二個十年之際所取得的幾個重要里程碑。到 2025 年，我們的總淨收入將超過 400 億美元，其中 41.5% 或接近 170 億美元來自我們的無菸業務。更令人印象深刻的是無菸業務的毛利貢獻，五年內幾乎翻了一番，達到 PMI 總利潤的 43%。

Our adjusted operating margin also returned to above 40% this year as our transformation expands profitably. Our business is increasingly smoke-free, with 27 markets exceeding the 50% net revenue milestone, including South Korea, Poland, Italy, Romania and of course, the US, which is also one of eight markets exceeding 75%.

隨著轉型業務的獲利擴張，我們今年的調整後營業利潤率也恢復到了 40% 以上。我們的業務正變得越來越無菸，27 個市場的淨收入超過 50% 的里程碑，其中包括韓國、波蘭、義大利、羅馬尼亞，當然還有美國，美國也是超過 75% 的八個市場之一。

In last quarter of 2025, the Europe region also surpassed 50%, making three out of four regional segments majority smoke-free.

2025 年最後一個季度，歐洲地區的無菸率也超過了 50%，使得四個區域市場中有三個市場實現了無菸化。

We continued to scale our global smoke-free presence, reaching 106 markets, 52 of which have already deployed a multi-category strategy, which is a critical accelerator of consumer adoption and long-term growth. As adult nicotine consumers search for better alternatives to smoking, we continue to lead the broader industry transformation.

我們持續擴大全球無菸業務規模，已覆蓋 106 個市場，其中 52 個市場已部署多品類策略，這對於消費者接受無菸產品和實現長期成長至關重要。隨著成年尼古丁消費者尋求比吸煙更好的替代品，我們將繼續引領更廣泛的行業變革。

A prime example is Japan, where the heat-not-burn category crossed the 50% total industry threshold in December, driven by the undiminished strength of IQOS. Across our 106 smoke-free markets, our double-digit adjusted IMS volume growth continues to outpace the industry, demonstrating the collective strength of our leading brands.

以日本為例，在 IQOS 強勁勢頭的推動下，加熱不燃燒類產品在 12 月佔整個產業的份額超過了 50%。在我們涵蓋的 106 個無菸市場中，我們兩位數的調整後 IMS 銷售成長持續超過行業平均水平，這證明了我們領先品牌的集體實力。

While we are proud of what we have accomplished so far, our focus remains sharply on the future, with an exciting pipeline of initiatives and innovations over the next three years. This is supported by increasing digitalization and our new organizational model.

雖然我們為迄今為止所取得的成就感到自豪，但我們的重點仍然放在未來，未來三年我們將推出一系列令人興奮的舉措和創新。這得益於日益增長的數位化水平和我們新的組織模式。

With that, I will hand over to Emmanuel to discuss our results and outlook in more detail, and I will come back at the end of this presentation.

接下來，我將把發言權交給伊曼紐爾，讓他更詳細地討論我們的成果和展望，我將在本次演講結束時回來。

Thank you, Jacek. I will begin with the headline financials for the year, which were indeed impressive. Organic top line and operating income growth were in line with our forecast ranges set at the start of 2025, and currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth exceeded with expectation by 1.7 points. Positive shipment volumes, strong smoke-free category mix and pricing drove organic top line growth of plus 6.5% or plus 7.9% excluding the technical Indonesia impact, positioning us at the high end of our plus 6% to plus 8% midterm CAGR target. We delivered another year of double-digit organic operating income growth at plus 10.6%, above our midterm target range and reflecting plus 140 basis points of organic margin expansion.

謝謝你，傑克。我先從今年的主要財務數據說起，這些數據確實令人印象深刻。有機營收和營業收入成長符合我們在 2025 年初設定的預測範圍，按匯率中立調整後的稀釋每股盈餘成長超出預期 1.7 個百分點。積極的出貨量、強勁的無菸類別組合和定價推動了有機營收成長 6.5% 或 7.9%（不包括印尼的技術性影響），使我們達到了中期複合年增長率 6% 至 8% 的目標的高端。我們連續第二年實現了兩位數的有機營業收入成長，達到 10.6%，高於其中期目標範圍，並反映出有機利潤率成長了 140 個基點。

In dollar terms, adjusted operating income grew by plus 11.8% to $16.4 billion. Excellent currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth of plus 14.2% was ahead of our expectation. This was driven by strong underlying business performance, notably in international multi-category and incombustible, coupled with a more favorable effective tax rate and lower net financing costs.

以美元計算，調整後的營業收入成長11.8%，達到164億美元。經匯率調整後的稀釋每股盈餘成長率高達 14.2%，超出我們的預期。這主要得益於強勁的基本業務表現，尤其是在國際多品類和不可燃品領域，以及更有利的有效稅率和更低的淨融資成本。

In dollar terms, adjusted diluted EPS of $7.54 was at the high end of our last guidance range despite a lower-than-expected currency tailwind of $0.04 due to nonrecurring transactional losses in Q4 largely related to the Russian ruble and the Swiss franc.

以美元計，儘管第四季度非經常性交易損失（主要與俄羅斯盧布和瑞士法郎有關）帶來的0.04美元的匯率利好低於預期，但調整後的稀釋每股收益為7.54美元，處於我們上次指導範圍的高端。

Robust cash generation enabled us to deliver operating cash flow of $12.2 billion, matching the record delivery of 2024. Now looking at Q4 specifically, while growth rates were below the overall year, partly due to the shipment and phasing factors outlined last quarter, underlying performance was ahead of our expectations. This enabled us to deliver almost 10% in adjusted diluted earnings per share growth to $1.70 or plus 9%, excluding a $0.01 currency tailwind.

強勁的現金流使我們能夠實現 122 億美元的經營現金流，與 2024 年的創紀錄水平持平。現在具體來看第四季度，雖然成長率低於全年水平，部分原因是上個季度概述的出貨量和分階段因素，但基本業績超出了我們的預期。這使我們能夠實現調整後稀釋每股收益成長近 10%，達到 1.70 美元，即成長 9%（不包括 0.01 美元的匯率利多）。

I will now cover our 2025 performance in more detail, starting with volumes. As Jacek mentioned, we delivered our fifth consecutive year of positive volumes with total shipment growth of plus 1.4%. This was driven by the continued dynamism of our smoke-free business, which generated more than 100 billion incremental units over the past five years, combined with a very resilient cigarette performance. In 2025, smoke-free shipments grew plus 12.8% or plus 20 billion units to 179 billion, more than offsetting the 1.5% decline in cigarette shipments.

接下來，我將更詳細地介紹我們 2025 年的業績，首先從銷售量說起。正如 Jacek 所提到的，我們連續第五年實現了正增長，總出貨量增長了 1.4%。這主要得益於我們無菸業務的持續強勁成長，該業務在過去五年中新增銷售超過 1,000 億件，再加上捲菸業務的強勁表現。到 2025 年，無菸產品的出貨量增加了 12.8%，即增加了 200 億支，達到 1,790 億支，足以抵銷捲菸出貨量 1.5% 的下降。

All smoke-free categories grew strongly, with IQOS HTU shipment growth of plus 11% to 155 billion units. VEEV, plus 102% to 3.3 billion equivalent units and oral smoke-free product, plus 18.5% to 20.7 billion units. Notably, this includes plus 37% growth from US ZYN to 11.9 billion pouches, making up close to 7% of total smoke-free product volumes. As expected, adjusted IMS growth for IQOS HTU accelerated in Q4 to plus 12%, while shipment volumes were impacted by the dynamic flagged last quarter and grew by plus 7.5%.

所有無菸產品類別均實現強勁成長，其中 IQOS HTU 出貨量成長 11%，達到 1,550 億台。電子煙產品銷售成長 102%，達到 33 億單位；無菸口腔產品銷售成長 18.5%，達到 207 億單位。值得注意的是，美國 ZYN 的銷售量成長了 37%，達到 119 億袋，佔無菸產品總量的近 7%。正如預期的那樣，IQOS HTU 的調整後 IMS 成長在第四季度加速至 12%，而出貨量受到上季所指出的動態的影響，成長了 7.5%。

Notwithstanding this impact, total Q4 smoke-free product volume increased by a healthy plus 8.5%.

儘管受到這種影響，第四季無菸產品總銷量仍實現了8.5%的健康成長。

The full year cigarette volume decline of 1.5% was slightly better than our expectation of around 2%, with our category share performance in the second half proving resilient in several markets, including Egypt and India. The total international cigarette industry, excluding China, declined by an estimated 1.1% with continued divergence between markets where smoke-free products are available, which declined by around 3%, and markets where smoke-free products are not permitted or still at low level of penetration, which were broadly flat.

全年捲菸銷量下降 1.5%，略好於我們先前約 2% 的預期，下半年我們在包括埃及和印度在內的幾個市場的品類份額表現出韌性。除中國以外，國際捲菸產業整體下降了約 1.1%，無菸產品可售的市場（下降約 3%）與無菸產品不被允許或滲透率仍然很低的市場（基本持平）之間繼續出現分化。

The composition of our 2025 top line performance was extremely consistent with the five-year average of each key component, demonstrating the sustainability of these dynamic drivers. Continued volume growth is the first pillar of our growth model. The second is pricing, which contributed plus 4.1 points. The 2025 impact reflect plus 7.6% pricing from combustible and low single-digit pricing on IQOS, partly offset by the H2 normalization of US ZYN promotional activities.

我們 2025 年的整體績效組成與每個關鍵組成部分的五年平均值非常一致，這表明這些動態驅動因素具有可持續性。銷售量持續成長是我們成長模式的第一支柱。第二點是價格，這貢獻了 4.1 分。2025 年的影響反映了可燃產品價格上漲 7.6%，而 IQOS 價格則為個位數低位，部分被美國 ZYN 促銷活動下半年的正常化所抵消。

The third pillar of growth is smoke-free mix, which contributed plus 3.5 points in 2025. Combustible geographic mix and other factors had an unfavorable impact of 1.1 points, whereas currency and scope effect added plus 0.8 points.

成長的第三個支柱是無菸混合燃料，到 2025 年貢獻了 3.5 個百分點。易燃地理組合和其他因素產生了 1.1 分的不利影響，而貨幣和範圍效應則增加了 0.8 分。

Breaking down our full year performance by category. Both smoke-free and combustible contributed to our strong net revenue and gross profit delivery, with gross margin expanding organically by plus 220 basis points to over 67%.

按類別細分我們全年的業績。無菸產品和可燃產品都為我們強勁的淨收入和毛利潤做出了貢獻，毛利率有機成長了 220 個基點，達到 67% 以上。

Smoke-free net revenue grew organically by plus 14.1%, while gross profit advanced by plus 18.7%. As a result, adjusted gross margin increased by 270 basis points to reach 69.5%, further widening the gap to combustible to 4 points for the year. IQOS was again the primary driver of this performance, combining global top line momentum with increasing scale and cost efficiencies.

無菸業務淨收入有機成長 14.1%，毛利成長 18.7%。因此，調整後的毛利率提高了 270 個基點，達到 69.5%，與可燃物毛利率的差距進一步擴大到 4 個百分點。IQOS 再次成為這項績效的主要驅動力，它將全球營收成長動能與不斷擴大的規模和成本效益相結合。

VEEV's improving profitability also contributed positively. And while the normalization of US ZYN commercial activity in H2 had a dilutive year-over-year impact, its gross margins remain best-in-class, above the average of our IQOS business, including in Q4. As mentioned last quarter, we expect this to be an enduring positive mix driver.

VEEV盈利能力的提升也起了積極作用。儘管美國 ZYN 商業活動在下半年恢復正常對同比業績產生了稀釋影響，但其毛利率仍然是同類最佳，高於我們 IQOS 業務的平均水平，包括第四季度。正如上個季度所提到的，我們預計這將是一個持續的積極因素。

Combustible performed well in 2025 with low single-digit top line growth and low to mid-single-digit gross profit growth, a proxy of what we expect this business to deliver over time. Strong pricing more than offset volume declines and unfavorable mix, with disciplined cost management supporting gross margin expansion of plus 160 basis points to reach 65.5%.

Combustible 業務在 2025 年表現良好，營收成長低個位數，毛利成長低至中等個位數，這預示著我們預計該業務在未來一段時間內將取得怎樣的業績。強勁的定價策略彌補了銷售下滑和產品組合不利的影響，嚴格的成本管理使毛利率提高了 160 個基點，達到 65.5%。

Moving to operating margins. We delivered full year organic expansion of plus 140 basis points and plus 160 basis points in dollar terms to reach an adjusted operating income margin of 40.4%. We achieved this in a year of strong investment in commercial, marketing and brand building behind our smoke-free portfolio, including international multi-category deployments and US ZYN.

接下來討論營業利益率。我們實現了全年有機成長 140 個基點，以美元計算成長 160 個基點，調整後的營業利潤率達到 40.4%。我們在過去一年中大力投資於無菸產品組合的商業、行銷和品牌建設，包括國際多品類部署和美國 ZYN，從而實現了這一目標。

We also continue to invest in expanding our US capabilities to capture the substantial growth opportunities ahead. This performance was supported by a relentless focus on both cost of goods sold and back-office efficiency, enabling meaningful margin expansion even as we continue to invest for growth. We have delivered around $1.5 billion in gross cost savings since 2024, placing us firmly on track to achieve our $2 billion objective for the '24-'26 period.

我們將繼續投資擴大我們在美國的業務能力，以抓住未來巨大的成長機會。這項業績得益於我們對銷售成本和後台效率的不懈關注，即使我們繼續投資以實現成長，也能實現利潤率的顯著提升。自 2024 年以來，我們已節省了約 15 億美元的總成本，這使我們穩步朝著實現 2024-2026 年期間 20 億美元的目標邁進。

Focusing now on our smoke-free business, where all categories have an important role to play. Our global presence continues to grow, with PMI smoke-free products now available in 106 markets. This includes the recent launch of ZYN in Argentina and IQOS in Taiwan. We increased the number of markets with all three categories to 26 compared with nine markets two years ago. We continue to outpace the smoke-free market.

現在我們將重點放在無菸業務上，其中所有類別都發揮著重要作用。我們的全球業務持續成長，PMI 無菸產品現已在 106 個市場銷售。這其中包括最近在阿根廷推出的 ZYN 和在台灣推出的 IQOS。我們擁有這三類市場的市場數量從兩年前的 9 個增加到 26 個。我們持續領先無菸市場。

Measured in the categories where we are present across these 106 markets, we delivered over plus 12% estimated in-market sales volume growth for the year compared to over 9% for the industry. We estimate our volume share of smoke-free products on this basis is around 60%, and our 2025 share of category growth is over 70%.

在我們涉足的這 106 個市場的各個類別中，我們實現了超過 12% 的預期市場銷售量成長，而產業平均為 9% 以上。我們估計，以此計算，我們在無菸產品中的銷售份額約為 60%，到 2025 年，我們在品類成長中的份額將超過 70%。

With our portfolio of leading premium brands, our share of smoke-free in value term is notably higher than 60%. As we expanded our portfolio and geographic reach, the number of legal age consumer of our smoke-free product, which an estimated 43.5 million as of December 31, an increase of around 10 million users in two years with broad-based growth across categories.

憑藉我們領先的高端品牌組合，我們在無菸產品價值方面的份額明顯高於 60%。隨著我們擴大產品組合和地理覆蓋範圍，截至 12 月 31 日，我們無菸產品的法定年齡消費者數量估計為 4,350 萬，兩年內增加了約 1,000 萬用戶，各類別均實現了廣泛增長。

IQOS adjusted IMS growth accelerated to an outstanding plus 12% in the fourth quarter, reflecting strong momentum across the globe and a presence now in 79 markets. All regions contributed, as illustrated by exceptional performance in key cities such as Mexico City, Manila, Riyadh, Rome, London, Madrid and Munich. You can find further key city and European shared data in the appendix to these slides. This enabled us to achieve full year growth of plus 10.5%, within our target range.

IQOS 經調整後的 IMS 成長在第四季度加速至驚人的 12%，反映出其在全球範圍內的強勁勢頭，目前已進入 79 個市場。所有地區都做出了貢獻，墨西哥城、馬尼拉、利雅德、羅馬、倫敦、馬德里和慕尼黑等重點城市的表現尤其出色。您可以在本投影片的附錄中找到更多重要的城市和歐洲共享資料。這使我們能夠實現全年增長10.5%，符合我們的目標範圍。

Annual adjusted IMS again increased by around 15 billion units despite the continued headwind of the EU characterizing flavor ban and a step-up in competitive intensity.

儘管面臨歐盟風味禁令的持續不利因素以及競爭強度的加劇，年度調整後的IMS再次成長約150億單位。

Our global share of the Ina bank category remains impressively resilient at approximately 76%. This is supported by brand engagement initiatives and continuous innovation across devices and consumables, including the continued introduction of ILUMA i to reach a total of 55 markets.

我們在 Ina 銀行類別中的全球份額仍然保持著令人印象深刻的韌性，約為 76%。這得益於品牌互動計劃和設備和耗材的持續創新，包括不斷推出 ILUMA i，以涵蓋總共 55 個市場。

Importantly, IQOS profitability continued to increase significantly, driven by pricing, scale and product improvement on consumable and device costs. This is illustrated by a substantial increase in product contribution over time.

重要的是，IQOS 的獲利能力持續顯著成長，這得益於價格、規模以及耗材和設備成本方面的產品改進。這可以從產品貢獻隨時間而大幅成長看出。

Turning to nicotine pouches. ZYN is the global number one brand with a 2025 PMI category share of around 40% in pouch terms. The US represent approximately two thirds of the category today, while international market, though still relatively small, are growing rapidly. We made excellent progress this year expanding ZYN's presence by plus 19 markets to 56 and delivering plus 36% shipment growth to 13.6 billion pouches or 880 million cans, achieving our 2026 target one year early.

改用尼古丁袋。ZYN 是全球排名第一的品牌，2025 年 PMI 類別份額（按袋裝）約為 40%。目前，美國約佔該類別的三分之二，而國際市場雖然規模仍然相對較小，但成長迅速。今年我們取得了卓越的進展，ZYN 的業務範圍擴大了 19 個市場，達到 56 個市場，出貨量成長了 36%，達到 136 億袋或 8.8 億罐，提前一年實現了 2026 年的目標。

US shipments grew plus 37%, while international volume grew plus 31% or plus 112% excluding the more mature Nordic market, where Q4 performance was impacted by a demanding shipment comparison.

美國出貨量成長了 37%，國際出貨量成長了 31%，如果排除較成熟的北歐市場（第四季業績受到出貨量基數較高的影響），則成長了 112%。

We are focused on the future growth of the category, broadening our portfolio to address the need of legal age smoker looking to switch. This includes new strengths and flavor variance, including ZYN X Low 1.5 milligram, which was successfully rolled out to around of two thirds of ZYN market, driving a significant improvement in first experience acceptance among adult nicotine consumers.

我們專注於該品類的未來成長，擴大產品組合，以滿足達到法定吸煙年齡並希望改用其他產品的吸煙者的需求。這包括新的強度和口味變化，例如 ZYN X Low 1.5 毫克，該產品已成功推廣到 ZYN 市場約三分之二的份額，顯著提高了成年尼古丁消費者對首次體驗的接受度。

While we are in the early stage of developing the category, which makes up only a low single-digit share of total nicotine in most markets, it's very encouraging to see ZYN's share of international pouches, excluding the Nordics, rise by around plus 60% in 2025 to reach 16% following the launches and relaunches of the past one to two years.

雖然我們仍處於該品類發展的早期階段，在大多數市場中，該品類僅佔尼古丁總量的個位數份額，但令人鼓舞的是，在過去一兩年的推出和重新推出之後，ZYN 在國際袋裝煙彈（不包括北歐地區）的份額在 2025 年將增長約 60%，達到 16%。

In e-vapor, this is the fastest-growing international vape brand of any major player within closed pods. The pod segment is growing rapidly as disposable decline, and VEEV is gaining significant volume share in the fragmented landscape, sourcing primarily from legal age consumers of other vaping products and adult smoker.

在電子煙領域，這是封閉式煙彈領域所有主要參與者中成長最快的國際電子煙品牌。隨著一次性電子煙的衰落，電子煙彈市場正在迅速增長，VEEV 在分散的市場中獲得了相當大的市場份額，其主要客戶是其他電子煙產品的法定年齡消費者和成年吸菸者。

As covered earlier, shipments doubled for the year with a meaningful improvement in profitability. VEEV is now present in 47 markets and grew notably well in Italy, Romania, Greece, the UK, Germany and Indonesia.

如前所述，全年出貨量翻了一番，獲利能力也顯著提高。VEEV 目前已進入 47 個市場，並在義大利、羅馬尼亞、希臘、英國、德國和印尼等市場取得了顯著成長。

Reviewing the smoke-free portfolio now by geography, starting with Europe, where as Jacek mentioned, smoke-free products now represent more than 50% of regional net revenue. Total IQOS, ZYN and VEEV volume grew by an impressive plus 13% for the year, with significant further growth potential given the overall penetration of SFP remain low compared to Japan or the US.

現在按地域來審視無菸產品組合，首先從歐洲開始，正如 Jacek 所提到的，無菸產品目前佔該地區淨收入的 50% 以上。IQOS、ZYN 和 VEEV 的總銷量全年增長了令人矚目的 13%，考慮到與日本或美國相比，SFP 的整體滲透率仍然較低，因此還有很大的進一步成長潛力。

IQOS delivered another strong quarter with an acceleration in adjusted IMS growth to plus 10.3%. This was led by an exceptional performance in Italy, where we successfully navigated the impact of the flavor ban, supported by recent innovation. With an acceleration through the quarter of 2025 to deliver double-digit in-market sales growth for the year, quarterly market share passed 20% for the first time.

IQOS 又迎來了一個強勁的季度，調整後的 IMS 成長加速至 10.3%。這主要得益於我們在義大利的出色表現，在近期創新的支持下，我們成功應對了口味禁令的影響。預計到 2025 年第四季將加速成長，實現全年兩位數的市場銷售成長，季度市佔率首次超過 20%。

Other notable call outs with strong double-digit growth include Bulgaria, Germany, Greece, Spain and Romania.

其他值得關注的兩位數強勁成長的國家包括保加利亞、德國、希臘、西班牙和羅馬尼亞。

ZYN pouch shipment volumes grew plus 9% for the year. And while the Nordics make up close to 60% of regional volume, shipments more than doubled elsewhere with good progress in the UK, Poland, Italy and Austria. As noted earlier, excellent momentum continued with shipment growth of plus 110%.

ZYN 袋裝產品出貨量全年成長 9%。雖然北歐地區的貨運量佔該地區貨運量的近 60%，但其他地區的貨運量增加了一倍多，英國、波蘭、義大利和奧地利都取得了良好的進展。如前所述，強勁的成長動能得以延續，出貨量成長超過 110%。

In Japan, we reached an impressive milestone in December as the heat-not-burn category surpassed 50% of total industry offtake volumes, driven by the continued strength of IQOS. The path to 50% has not been linear and following two years of very strong expansion in '23 and '24, category growth moderated in 2025.

在日本，12 月我們取得了令人矚目的里程碑式成就，加熱不燃燒類產品銷售佔業界總銷量的 50% 以上，這主要得益於 IQOS 的持續強勁表現。達到 50% 的目標並非一帆風順，在 2023 年和 2024 年經歷了兩年強勁增長之後，該品類的增長在 2025 年有所放緩。

The adjusted in-market growth of IQOS HTUs has reflected this trend with a healthy plus 7% in 2025, representing very robust absolute growth. In Q4, the Japanese nicotine industry and the heat-not-burn category grew slightly below the full year trend with some impact from inflationary pressures on consumer purchasing power. Nonetheless, IQOS HTU adjusted IMS grew plus 5.8%, while Q4 adjusted share grew plus 2 points year-on-year to 32.6%.

IQOS HTU 的調整後市場成長率反映了這一趨勢，2025 年實現了 7% 的健康成長，代表著非常強勁的絕對成長。第四季度，日本尼古丁產業和加熱不燃燒品類的成長略低於全年趨勢，部分原因是通膨壓力對消費者購買力造成了影響。儘管如此，IQOS HTU 調整後的 IMS 成長了 5.8%，而第四季調整後的市佔率年增了 2 個百分點，達到 32.6%。

While competitive intensity increased markedly this year, IQOS category share was broadly stable, with most movements occurring among other players. We are encouraged by early signs that the increase in category activity is generating higher test among more traditional adult smoker, a positive indicator for category growth.

雖然今年的競爭強度明顯增加，但 IQOS 類別的市佔率整體保持穩定，大部分變動發生在其他參與者之間。早期跡象表明，品類活動的增加正在促使更多傳統成年吸煙者進行更多測試，這令人鼓舞，也是品類增長的一個積極指標。

Looking forward, the upcoming excise tax increases on heat-not-burn in April and October make 2026 a atypical year. As discussed at the Morgan Stanley conference in December, the level of Pason this headwind for the category, representing about JPY50 to JPY100 per pack, which translates to 20% of current retail prices, with the greatest impact for product at lower price points.

展望未來，2026 年 4 月和 10 月即將上調的加熱不燃燒消費稅，使得 2026 年成為一個非同尋常的年份。正如摩根士丹利在 12 月的會議上所討論的那樣，Pason 的這一舉措對該品類構成了不利影響，每包價格約為 50 至 100 日元，相當於當前零售價格的 20%，對低價位產品的影響最大。

As announced recently, we have submitted an application to increase our prices in April. We anticipate these price increases will impact category growth and volume for 2026 despite the fact that heat-not-burn consumers have demonstrated higher price resilience than cigarette smokers in the past.

正如我們最近宣布的那樣，我們已提交申請，並將於四月提高產品價格。儘管加熱不燃燒菸草消費者過去對價格的承受能力比捲菸吸菸者強，但我們預期這些價格上漲將影響 2026 年該品類的成長和銷售量。

Shipment volatility in 2026 is also possible, driven by in-market sales trends around April and October excise increases. Importantly, we do not expect the underlying category growth trend to change, and we target substantial further growth from IQOS in Japan in the years to come. We are also pleased to report ZYN's successful pilot launch in Tokyo.

2026 年的出貨量也可能出現波動，這主要是由於 4 月和 10 月消費稅上調前後的市場銷售趨勢所致。重要的是，我們預期該品類的整體成長趨勢不會改變，我們預計未來幾年 IQOS 在日本將大幅成長。我們也很高興地宣布 ZYN 在東京成功進行了試點發布。

Outside of the US, Japan and Europe, all three of our smoke-free categories are delivering strong broad-based growth, with full year shipment up plus 17%. This includes IQOS' strong start in Taiwan during Q4, where we exited the year with around 4% of offtake share and rapid progress in markets such as South Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines.

除美國、日本和歐洲以外，我們的所有三個無菸產品類別均實現了強勁的全面增長，全年出貨量增長了 17%。這包括 IQOS 在第四季度於台灣的強勁開局，年底時我們在台灣的市佔率約為 4%，以及在韓國、馬來西亞和菲律賓等市場的快速發展。

This momentum was notably strong in Pakistan and Mexico. In e-vapor, we've achieved excellent results, particularly in Asia. Our Global Travel Retail business further support all three brands and continue to deliver impressive multi-category performance, serving as a powerful platform to showcase our portfolio.

這股勢頭在巴基斯坦和墨西哥尤為強勁。在電子煙領域，我們取得了優異的成績，尤其是在亞洲。我們的全球旅遊零售業務進一步支持所有三個品牌，並繼續取得令人矚目的多品類業績，成為展示我們產品組合的強大平台。

Turning now to the US, which made up around 7% of our global net revenues and around 8% of our adjusted operating income in 2025. Nicotine pouches remain the fastest-growing US segment, representing a high single-digit percentage of total nicotine industry volume.

現在來看看美國市場，2025 年美國市場約占我們全球淨收入的 7%，約占我們調整後營業收入的 8%。尼古丁袋仍然是美國成長最快的細分市場，佔尼古丁產業總銷售量的個位數百分比。

Despite supply constraints, commercial normalization and portfolio gap, ZYN continued to lead the category in 2025, with its premium offer capturing around 50% of category growth, 61.5% can volume share and a value share of over 67%. ZYN offtake volume also grew strongly by plus 25% for the year, as estimated by Nielsen.

儘管供應受限、商業正常化和產品組合存在差距，ZYN 在 2025 年繼續引領該品類，其高端產品佔據了該品類約 50% 的增長份額、61.5% 的罐裝銷量份額和超過 67% 的價值份額。據尼爾森估計，ZYN 的銷量全年也強勁增長了 25%。

Shipment grew by plus 37% or 230 million cans to 794 million. The gap between shipment and offtake reflect a net channel inventory rebuild, and we estimate the underlying 2025 shipment base corresponding to consumer offtake was around 740 million to 750 million cans.

出貨量成長了 37%，即 2.3 億罐，達到 7.94 億罐。出貨量與消費量之間的差距反映了通路庫存的淨重建，我們估計 2025 年與消費者消費量相對應的基本出貨量約為 7.4 億至 7.5 億罐。

This was notably concentrated in the first quarter of 2025, and we estimate the underlying shipment base by quarter for 2025 was around 160 million cans in Q1, 180 million cans in Q2, 205 million in Q3 and 200 million in Q4.

這種情況明顯集中在 2025 年第一季度，我們估計 2025 年各季度的基本出貨量基數分別為：第一季約 1.6 億罐，第二季度約 1.8 億罐，第三季度約 2.05 億罐，第四季約 2 億罐。

Indeed, Q4 saw a lower-than-expected destocking of about 5 million cans as we deploy promotion, limited time offers and announced a general lease price increase of $0.10 per can in December. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect ZYN shipment volume to broadly reflect off the growth from this underlying base before any further channel inventory movement. We estimate the remainder around 25 million cans of surplus inventory in the downstream supply chain, which we assume will normalize in due course, most likely in the first quarter.

事實上，由於我們開展了促銷活動、限時優惠，並在 12 月宣布將一般租賃價格提高每罐 0.10 美元，因此第四季度的庫存減少量低於預期，約為 500 萬罐。展望 2026 年，我們預計 ZYN 出貨量將大致反映出這一基本面的成長，然後再考慮任何進一步的通路庫存變動。我們估計下游供應鏈中剩餘的庫存量約為 2500 萬罐，我們認為這種情況會在適當的時候得到改善，最有可能在第一季。

The level of offtake growth for ZYN in 2026 will be influenced by three key factors in which we are investing. The most critical over the mid- to long term is in brand equity as we strengthen marketing in a responsible manner, enhance point-of-sale visibility and deepen the connection with our legal age consumers.

2026 年 ZYN 的承購量成長水準將受到我們正在投資的三個關鍵因素的影響。從中長期來看，最關鍵的是品牌資產，因為我們要以負責任的方式加強行銷，提高銷售點可見度，並加深與達到法定年齡的消費者的聯繫。

Accessing all segments of the US nicotine pouch category will require us to navigate a dynamic and uncertain regulatory environment. We have developed and are preparing to launch innovation to address a broad spectrum of consumer preferences.

要進入美國尼古丁袋市場的所有細分領域，我們需要應對動態且不確定的監管環境。我們已經開發出創新產品，並正準備推出以滿足廣泛的消費者偏好。

We have a number of pending ZYN submission before the FDA, including ZYN Ultra, which is included in FDA's pilot program. ZYN Ultra offers higher strength and an expected range of adult-oriented flavors. We are taking steps to prepare for the launch of ZYN Ultra as soon as possible, pending FDA action.

我們向 FDA 提交了多項 ZYN 申請，其中包括 ZYN Ultra，該產品已納入 FDA 的試點計劃。ZYN Ultra 提供更高的效力和一系列適合成年人的口味。我們正在採取措施，準備盡快推出 ZYN Ultra，但需等待 FDA 的批准。

We also believe IQOS ILUMA strong application and demonstrated track record consenting smokers to better alternatives warrants expeditious FDA action. We also continue to optimize ZYN's premium price position. Despite elevated promotional intensity across the category, ZYN remain the leading premium brand by a clear margin, fully aligned with our strategy for sustainable long-term growth.

我們還認為，IQOS ILUMA 的強大應用和已證明的成功記錄，使吸菸者願意接受更好的替代品，值得 FDA 迅速採取行動。我們也會繼續優化 ZYN 的高端價格定位。儘管整個品類的促銷力度加大，ZYN 仍以明顯的優勢維持領先高端品牌的地位，這完全符合我們實現可持續長期成長的策略。

We have a comprehensive commercial program plan for 2026. And as a reminder, commercial activities, including promotions, were unusually low in the first half of 2025. As I mentioned before, we continue to expect ZYN to deliver best-in-class gross margin within PMI above the average of IQOS. We are very excited about the significant growth potential of the brand over the coming years, which fully justifies the above-mentioned investment.

我們制定了全面的2026年商業計劃。需要提醒的是，2025 年上半年的商業活動（包括促銷活動）異常低迷。正如我之前提到的，我們仍然期望 ZYN 在 PMI 範圍內實現一流的毛利率，高於 IQOS 的平均值。我們對品牌未來幾年的巨大成長潛力感到非常興奮，這完全證明了上述投資的合理性。

One example of our enhanced brand building effort is the recently announced global partnership between ZYN and Ferrari, which recognized our long-standing heritage in Formula 1, with smoke-free product now at the forefront. Formula 1's overwhelmingly adult audience provides a highly impact platform to engage consumer responsibly and reinforce ZYN's premium equity.

我們加強品牌建立努力的一個例子是最近宣布的 ZYN 與法拉利之間的全球合作夥伴關係，這體現了我們對一級方程式賽車悠久歷史的認可，而無菸產品現在處於領先地位。一級方程式賽車的觀眾絕大多數是成年人，這為以負責任的方式與消費者互動並鞏固 ZYN 的高端品牌形象提供了一個極具影響力的平台。

Finally, moving to combustible, which delivered another robust year of pricing of plus 7.6%, including plus 6.8% in Q4 and very good gross profit growth. Our full year cigarette share declined by 0.2 points to 25.3%, mainly due to Turkey, and was otherwise stable, including record high for Marlboro both for the full year and in Q4, where its share reached 11% of the international category, excluding China. For 2026, we forecast a comfortable pricing variance of around plus 6%, reflecting continued dynamic performance.

最後，讓我們來看看可燃物業務，該業務在過去一年中實現了強勁的價格增長，漲幅達 7.6%，其中第四季度漲幅達 6.8%，毛利潤增長也非常可觀。全年捲菸市佔率下降 0.2 個百分點至 25.3%，主要原因是土耳其市場下滑，其他方面則維持穩定，其中萬寶路全年及第四季均創歷史新高，第四季在國際市場（不包括中國）的市佔率達 11%。我們預測 2026 年的價格波動幅度將維持在正負 6% 左右，反映出市場持續的動態表現。

With that, I will now hand it back to Jacek.

這樣，我現在就把它還給雅采克。

Thank you, Emmanuel. This brings me to our outlook for 2026, where we expect another year of a strong and profitable growth despite several transitory headwinds. Starting with volumes. We expect continued strong underlying momentum in our smoke-free business for all three categories. Both shipments and adjusted IMS volumes are projected to grow in high single digits after factoring in the headwinds from Japan excise taxes and US inventory comparisons described earlier.

謝謝你，伊曼紐。這讓我想到我們對 2026 年的展望，我們預計儘管會面臨一些暫時的不利因素，但仍將保持強勁且盈利的成長。首先從音量說起。我們預計所有三個品類的無菸業務都將持續保持強勁的成長動能。考慮到前面提到的日本消費稅和美國庫存比較帶來的不利因素，預計出貨量和調整後的IMS銷售都將達到高個位數成長。

For combustibles, we forecast a cigarette decline of around 3%, with weaker industry volumes in India and Mexico following the recent excise tax increases and our ongoing recovery in Turkey likely to impact comparisons in the first half.

對於可燃菸草產品，我們預測捲菸銷量將下降約 3%，印度和墨西哥近期消費稅上調導致行業銷量疲軟，而土耳其的持續復甦可能會影響上半年的業績比較。

Altogether, these results in a broadly stable outlook for total shipment growth, subject to the usual variability in shipment timing and trade inventory movement as compared to a forecast total industry decline of around 2% for cigarettes and HTUs.

總的來說，這些因素導致總出貨量成長前景整體穩定，但出貨時間和貿易庫存變動仍存在通常的波動，而預計捲菸和加熱不燃燒菸草製品（HTU）的整個產業將下降約 2%。

We expect another strong year overall for pricing led by combustibles, notwithstanding the impact of a US first half comparison and for continued positive smoke-free mix. Taking all these elements into account, we forecast 2026 organic net revenue growth of 5% to 7%.

儘管受到美國上半年同比數據的影響，但我們預計在可燃物價格的帶動下，今年整體價格仍將保持強勁增長，同時無菸產品組合也將持續向好。綜合考慮所有這些因素，我們預測 2026 年有機淨收入將成長 5% 至 7%。

We expect the same factors in addition to operating leverage and ongoing cost efficiencies to drive further robust margin expansion with projected organic operating income growth of 7% to 9%. This includes continued strong investment behind our smoke-free portfolio.

我們預計，除了經營槓桿和持續的成本效率外，同樣的因素將推動利潤率進一步強勁增長，預計有機營業收入將增長 7% 至 9%。這包括對我們無菸產品組合的持續大力投資。

We are forecasting currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth of 7.5% to 9.5%, factoring in broadly stable net finance cost and an effective corporate tax rate approximately in line with 2025 at around 21.5%. Including an estimated 28 [fence] currency benefit at prevailing exchange rates, this translates to 11.3% to 13.3% growth to a range of $8.39 to $8.54, which would mark another year of double-digit EPS growth in dollar terms.

我們預測，在淨融資成本基本上穩定且有效企業稅率與 2025 年大致持平（約 21.5%）的情況下，以固定匯率調整後的稀釋每股盈餘成長率為 7.5% 至 9.5%。考慮到以當前匯率計算的約 28 [fence] 貨幣收益，這將轉化為 11.3% 至 13.3% 的增長，達到 8.39 美元至 8.54 美元，這將標誌著以美元計價的每股收益將實現兩位數增長。

We expect a significant acceleration in operating cash flow growth at around $13.5 billion at prevailing exchange rates and subject to year-end working capital requirements. The strong cash generation is expected to support further meaningful deleveraging in 2026, which I will come back to shortly.

我們預計，以目前匯率計算，經營現金流成長將顯著加速，達到約 135 億美元，但需視年底營運資金需求而定。強勁的現金流預計將支持在 2026 年進一步實現有意義的去槓桿化，我稍後會談到這一點。

On a quarterly basis, we expect the first quarter to be the softest quarter of the year, reflecting demanding year-on-year comparisons and investment phasing. We expect first quarter combustible volumes to decline by up to 5% as we lap a prior year quarter of volume growth, whilst having the highest expected impact of the dynamics in Turkey, India and Mexico, which I mentioned for the full year.

從季度來看，我們預計第一季將是一年中最疲軟的季度，這反映了同比基數較高以及投資分階段進行的情況。我們預計第一季可燃物銷量將下降至多 5%，因為上一季銷量實現了成長，同時土耳其、印度和墨西哥的市場動態預計將對其產生最大影響，正如我之前提到的，這些市場對全年銷量的影響也很大。

Smoke-free product shipments will also be impacted by the US ZYN shipment dynamics explained by Emmanuel and the strong HTU comparator. With low levels of commercial activity on ZYN in prior year, impacting the net revenue per can comparison and a higher quarter of investment globally behind our smoke-free due to phasing, we anticipate broadly flat year-on-year first quarter organic net revenue and operating income.

正如 Emmanuel 所解釋的，美國 ZYN 出貨動態以及強勁的 HTU 對比數據也會對無菸產品出貨量產生影響。由於上一年 ZYN 的商業活動水平較低，影響了每罐淨收入的比較，並且由於分階段實施，我們在全球範圍內對無菸產品的投資較高，因此我們預計第一季度有機淨收入和營業收入與去年同期基本持平。

We forecast high single-digit adjusted diluted EPS growth of $1.80 to $1.85, including a $0.14 tailwind at prevailing rates, supported by a favorable comparison to transactional currency impacts in the prior year. As I mentioned earlier, we have delivered our three-year CAGR targets on operating income and EPS in just two years.

我們預測調整後稀釋每股收益將實現高個位數成長，達到 1.80 美元至 1.85 美元，其中包括按當前匯率計算的 0.14 美元利好，這得益於與上一年交易匯率影響相比的有利比較。正如我之前提到的，我們只花了兩年就實現了三年內營業收入和每股盈餘的複合年增長率目標。

Combining our 2026 forecast with the strong results of 2024 and 2025, we expect to meet or exceed all of our 2024-'26 CAGR targets presented at our 2023 Investor Day. This is especially the case for operating income and EPS growth, despite our algorithm assuming a more favorable corporate tax rate. In addition, our expected adjusted EPS CAGR in dollar terms represent a strong double-digit delivery.

結合我們對 2026 年的預測以及 2024 年和 2025 年的強勁業績，我們預計能夠達到或超過我們在 2023 年投資者日上提出的所有 2024-2026 年複合年增長率目標。儘管我們的演算法假設了更有利的企業稅率，但營業收入和每股盈餘成長尤其如此。此外，我們預期以美元計價的調整後每股盈餘複合年增長率將實現強勁的兩位數成長。

This brings me to the 2026-2028 outlook, where we are renewing our medium-term growth targets in the next three years. We continue to target positive total shipment volumes, with the growth of smoke-free products more than offsetting cigarette volume declines.

這就引出了 2026-2028 年的展望，我們將在未來三年內重新制定中期成長目標。我們繼續以實現總出貨量正成長為目標，無菸產品的成長足以抵銷捲菸出貨量的下降。

While our 2026 forecast ranges are marginally lower due to the specific factors we explained, for the three-year period to 2028, we continue to target compound annual growth rate of 6% to 8% in organic net revenues, 8% to 10% in organic operating income as margins expand and 9% to 11% in adjusted diluted EPS at constant currency. This renewed target reflects our confidence in sustaining the strong pace of top and bottom line growth over time. They also reaffirm our best-in-class growth profile within the large cap consumer packaged goods sector.

儘管由於我們解釋的具體因素，我們對 2026 年的預測範圍略有下調，但對於到 2028 年的三年期間，我們繼續設定目標，有機淨收入複合年增長率為 6% 至 8%，有機營業收入複合年增長率為 8% 至 10%（利潤率擴大），以固定匯率為每股收益的調整後1% 1% 1%。這項重新設定的目標反映了我們對長期維持營收和利潤強勁成長動能的信心。它們也再次印證了我們在大型消費品包裝產業中一流的成長地位。

We target smoke-free product shipment and adjusted IMS volume growth of high single digits to low teens. Our multi-category strategy in international markets will continue to be the dominant driver of smoke-free products growth, further amplified by the substantial opportunity in the US. As we progress through the period, we expect this to be bolstered by the new market openings and an active innovation pipeline. The US launch of IQOS ILUMA is included in the target, including initial commercial investment, with the precise cadence subject to the timing of launch.

我們的目標是實現無菸產品出貨量和調整後的IMS銷售成長達到個位數高點至十幾位。我們在國際市場上的多品類策略將繼續成為無菸產品成長的主要驅動力，而美國市場的巨大機會將進一步放大這一成長。隨著這段時期的推進，我們預期新的市場開放和積極的創新措施將進一步推動這一趨勢。IQOS ILUMA 在美國的上市計畫已納入目標範圍，包括初始商業投資，具體進度取決於上市時間。

Meanwhile, the resilience of our combustible portfolio provides a critical backbone, providing the infrastructure, financial firepower and consumer connection to accelerate smoke-free growth. We look forward to sharing more with you on this topic at the CAGNY Conference on February 18.

同時，我們可燃產品組合的韌性提供了關鍵的支撐，提供了基礎設施、財務實力和消費者聯繫，從而加速了無菸成長。我們期待在2月18日舉行的CAGNY會議上與您分享更多關於此主題的資訊。

We remain a highly cash generative business, which is based on the strength of our brands and reinforced by disciplined management of cost and cash. This gives us the financial capacity to invest strongly behind our smoke-free business, maintain superior shareholder returns and optimize our balance sheet.

我們仍然是一家現金流充裕的企業，這得益於我們強大的品牌實力，以及嚴格的成本和現金管理。這使我們有財力大力投資於我們的無菸業務，保持優異的股東回報並優化我們的資產負債表。

Over the next three years, we target aggregate operating cash flow of around $45 billion at prevailing exchange rates. We anticipate capital expenditures of approximately $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion per annum on average, with the potential for lower amounts beyond 2026, and the lion's share of investments again focused on smoke-free products.

未來三年，我們的目標是以現行匯率計算，實現約 450 億美元的總營運現金流。我們預計平均每年資本支出約為 13 億至 15 億美元，2026 年以後可能會減少，而且大部分投資仍將集中在無菸產品上。

Alongside superior business results, we are committed to delivering superior shareholder value. Having essentially reached our target dividend payout ratio of around 75% of adjusted diluted EPS, we have the capacity to pursue dividend growth closer to the level of earnings growth, as demonstrated by the 8.9% increase announced in September last year.

除了取得優異的業績外，我們還致力於為股東創造卓越的價值。由於我們已基本達到調整後稀釋每股收益約 75% 的目標股息支付率，我們有能力追求與盈利增長水平更接近的股息增長，正如去年 9 月宣布的 8.9% 的增長所證明的那樣。

Strong cash flow and EBITDA growth enables deleveraging. We closed 2025 with an adjusted leverage ratio of 2.5x, reflecting solid progress despite the unfavorable impact of year-end currency movements and our net debt. We expect further improvements in 2026, targeting close to the 2x by year-end at prevailing exchange rates, providing increased flexibility for capital allocation.

強勁的現金流和 EBITDA 成長使去槓桿化成為可能。截至 2025 年底，我們調整後的槓桿率為 2.5 倍，這反映出儘管受到年末匯率波動和淨債務的不利影響，我們仍取得了穩健的進展。我們預計 2026 年將進一步改善，目標是在年底前按現行匯率接近 2 倍，從而為資本配置提供更大的靈活性。

In summary, our full year performance underscores the strength and the momentum of our global smoke-free business, supported by investment in our premium brands and the continued resilience of combustibles. Despite the complex operating environment shaped by economic uncertainties, political tensions and evolving regulations, we continue to make significant progress towards our vision of a smoke-free future.

總而言之，我們全年的業績突顯了我們全球無菸業務的實力和發展勢頭，這得益於我們對高端品牌的投資以及可燃產品的持續韌性。儘管經濟不確定性、政治緊張局勢和不斷變化的法規造成了複雜的經營環境，但我們仍在朝著無菸未來的願景取得重大進展。

As we delivered consistent best-in-class growth, we are reinvesting in our leading brands, innovation and the critical capabilities which support long-term performance. This allows us to generate significant value for our shareholders, including the largest dividend increase in over a decade. We look forward with confidence to 2026 and beyond.

在持續實現一流成長的同時，我們正在對我們的領先品牌、創新和支持長期業績的關鍵能力進行再投資。這使我們能夠為股東創造巨大價值，包括十多年來最大的股息成長。我們滿懷信心地展望2026年及以後。

Thank you. Emmanuel and I will be happy now to answer your questions.

謝謝。現在我和伊曼紐爾很樂意回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Matt Smith, Stifel.

（操作說明）Matt Smith，Stifel。

Starting with the new medium-term targets that you provided today, can you expand on the reacceleration in smoke-free volume growth compared to the 2026 growth guidance? And you called out the US as a new market in the outlook. How are other currently closed markets and the opportunity to expand platforms into existing IQOS markets considered?

以您今天提出的新的中期目標為例，您能否詳細說明一下與 2026 年成長預期相比，無菸菸草銷售成長重新加速的情況？您在展望未來時將美國視為一個新的市場。如何考慮其他目前已關閉的市場以及將平台擴展到現有 IQOS 市場的機會？

Yes, the acceleration in -- or beyond '26 is, at this stage, we mainly see coming from all the implementations of the tax changes, which are price -- or excise-driven price changes in Japan. As you may recall, Japan has the multistep excise tobacco, nicotine products, ex stack changes. It starts with the symmetry of heated tobacco products increasing the taxes first and then followed by the cigarette price increases as of '27.

是的，2026 年或之後的加速成長，目前來看，主要來自所有稅收改革的實施，而這些改革是日本價格——或者說是消費稅驅動的價格變化。您可能還記得，日本對菸草、尼古丁產品徵收多層級消費稅，稅基變化複雜。首先是加熱菸草製品稅的增加，然後是自 2027 年起香菸價格的上漲。

So I believe -- we believe at this stage, there will be some headwinds or maybe some headwinds on the category growth, and obviously, IQOS growth in '26. But once we start moving to the '27 and beyond, more symmetry with regards to the fiscal policy and treatment between a cigarette and heat-not-burn.

所以我認為——我們認為，在現階段，該類別的成長可能會遇到一些阻力，或者說可能會遇到一些阻力，顯然，IQOS 在 2026 年的成長也會受到影響。但一旦我們開始邁向 2027 年及以後，香菸和加熱不燃燒菸捲在財政政策和待遇方面就會更加對稱。

I mean, cost category should be returning or resuming growth. So that's the one factor.

我的意思是，成本類別應該恢復成長或重新開始成長。所以這是唯一需要考慮的因素。

And second factor, obviously, is that as we highlighted in our remarks, I mean there is a highly competitive environment in the US. And despite US in the total smoke-free volumes maybe doesn't have that much of a weight, but for growth is very opportunities and the growth is very important to us.

第二個因素顯然是，正如我們在演講中所強調的那樣，美國存在著高度競爭的環境。儘管美國在無菸產品總量中所佔的比重可能不大，但成長卻蘊藏著巨大的機遇，而成長對我們來說至關重要。

There are some symmetries on the portfolio versus what is presumably the most dynamic part in the total market. And we believe we've -- author -- pending authorization with the FDA once we will start moving hopefully through '26.

投資組合與整個市場中最具活力的部分之間存在一些對稱性。我們相信我們已經——作者——正在等待 FDA 的授權，一旦我們開始推進，希望到 2026 年就能實現。

But definitely '27, et cetera, we're going to put the portfolio into the symmetry of the consumer market expectations. Now obviously, the other factors which we mentioned, they are more on the combustible side. I mean not on smoke-free products. I mean we mentioned India, Mexico, maybe a couple other smaller places which have some quite outsized, I would characterize, excise increases, which obviously will drive the quite outsized -- the normal price increases.

但可以肯定的是，從 2027 年起，我們將調整投資組合，使其與消費者市場的預期保持一致。很顯然，我們提到的其他因素，它們更偏向易燃性。我的意思是，不是指無菸產品。我的意思是，我們提到了印度、墨西哥，可能還有其他一些較小的地方，這些地方的消費稅增幅相當大，這顯然會推高正常的物價漲幅。

So I believe once we -- we don't think that's going to be a recurring type of events, '27, '28, so we can come back and resume the strong top and bottom-line growth in the outer years. I think I just highlighted the key drivers.

所以我相信，一旦我們——我們認為這不會是像 2027 年、2028 年那樣反覆發生的事件，我們就可以恢復並在未來的幾年裡繼續保持強勁的營收和利潤成長。我覺得我已經重點強調了關鍵驅動因素。

There is obviously the factor of innovations. But you will ask me the question, what exactly is the innovation for competitive reason. I will not be able to discuss. But this will be the main drivers coming or starting from '26. The excise Japan, excise in a few other places and the ZYN portfolio are symmetry, bringing this to the symmetry.

創新因素顯然也發揮了作用。但你可能會問我，出於競爭原因，創新究竟是什麼。我無法討論此事。但這將是 2026 年開始或即將到來的主要驅動因素。日本的消費稅、其他一些地方的消費稅以及 ZYN 投資組合都是對稱的，這使得對稱性得以體現。

Eric Serotta, Morgan Stanley.

艾瑞克‧塞羅塔，摩根士丹利。

Great. Thanks so much. In terms of a '26 guide for smoke-free volumes up in that high single digits to low teens range, how are you thinking, broad strokes? I know you're not guiding specifically, but how are you thinking in terms of IQOS HTU shipments and IMS? Obviously, there's the some of the specific headwinds you called out in terms of the excise in Japan.

偉大的。非常感謝。就 2026 年無菸銷售指南而言，您認為銷售量應該達到個位數到十幾的水平，您有什麼大致的想法？我知道您沒有具體指導，但您是如何看待 IQOS HTU 出貨量和 IMS 的呢？顯然，正如你所提到的，日本的消費稅確實存在一些具體的阻力。

And ZYN, in terms of the competitive environment in Japan, I believe it sort of started to step up around the second quarter of last year with some competitor product launches. How has that been kind of evolving on a sequential basis, particularly heading in now to the season where competitors have filed with the Finance Ministry for their price increases?

至於 ZYN，就日本的競爭環境而言，我認為從去年第二季開始，隨著一些競爭對手的產品推出，競爭環境開始加劇。從某種程度上來說，這種情況是如何逐步發展的？尤其是在即將到來的賽季，競爭對手已經向財政部提交了提價申請。

Yes. I'll start maybe with the second part of the second question. I mean, yes, there is a -- this year and the year before, there is an increased competitive activity in Japan. Judging by how strongly IQOS holds the share in Japan and continuing its growth, I think it all goes well. I think, look, we have 10 years of IQOS brand built in Japan and a number of steps of smaller, but also the big innovations, including IQOS ILUMA.

是的。我或許可以先回答第二個問題的第二部分。我的意思是，是的，今年和去年，日本的競爭活動確實增加。從 IQOS 在日本的市場份額以及其持續成長的情況來看，我認為一切都會進展順利。我認為，你看，我們在日本已經建立了 10 年的 IQOS 品牌，並且邁出了許多步伐，既有較小的創新，也有大的創新，包括 IQOS ILUMA。

So I think IQOS is entering this a bit challenging from a price excise perspective period, I think, relatively strong. Now I bring a very legitimate question, how we see the IQOS in Japan, but we try to stand away from giving a very precise volume, another outlook for one specific geography.

所以我認為，從價格和消費稅的角度來看，IQOS 進入這個階段有點具有挑戰性，但我認為，它目前表現相對強勁。現在我提出一個非常合理的問題，即我們如何看待日本的 IQOS，但我們盡量避免給出非常精確的銷量，而是針對某個特定地區提出另一種觀點。

As you will appreciate, there is a competition, and we don't want to highlight too much to reveal what our plans with regards to the price and share expectations or volume expectations. But when we come up with the guidance for the total smoke-free products volume evolution next year, I mean, all of these factors are baked in, if you like.

正如您所理解的，市場存在競爭，我們不想過多透露我們在價格、市場份額預期或銷售預期方面的計劃。但是，當我們制定明年無菸產品總銷量成長的指導方針時，我的意思是，所有這些因素都已考慮在內。

And maybe, Eric, on your first question globally on the IQOS outlook among this high single-digit growth for our SFP volume in '26. We're very pleased with the growth of IQOS. I mean we finished '25 very strongly, more than 12% adjusted in-market sales growth. Yes, Japan has been slowing down a bit, as we mentioned. But the number of markets reaccelerated, Italy is one of them.

艾瑞克，或許你第一個問題是關於 IQOS 在全球的前景，以及我們 SFP 銷售在 2026 年實現的高個位數成長。我們對IQOS的成長非常滿意。我的意思是，我們在 2025 年的業績非常強勁，經調整後的市場銷售成長超過 12%。是的，正如我們之前提到的，日本經濟成長速度確實有所放緩。但市場數量重新加速成長，義大利就是其中之一。

Europe is showing a number of markets, which are, I would say, accelerating like Germany, like Spain. You still have markets such as Romania, Bulgaria that are very nice complement to the growth. So the picture is very nice for IQOS. And of course, we continue -- or we expect that to continue in '26.

歐洲的一些市場正在加速發展，例如德國和西班牙。羅馬尼亞、保加利亞等市場仍然對經濟成長起到了很好的補充作用。所以這張圖對IQOS來說非常漂亮。當然，我們將繼續——或者我們預計這種情況將在 2026 年繼續下去。

And then you have all this new market in new economies that are being very successful. We have Indonesia, Philippines, the Gulf, Mexico. I mean you have plenty of markets where IQOS is accelerating. And last but not least, we are super pleased with the launch in Taiwan. I mean 4% in only a few weeks, it's quite an achievement, and we're excited about the outlook.

然後，你會發現新興經濟體中湧現了許多非常成功的新興市場。我們有印尼、菲律賓、海灣地區和墨西哥。我的意思是，在很多市場，IQOS 的發展速度都在加快。最後，我們對在台灣的發布感到非常滿意。我的意思是，短短幾週內就成長了 4%，這確實是一個相當大的成就，我們對前景感到興奮。

So that is globally giving a nice picture for the continuation of a very good growth for IQOS in '26.

因此，從全球範圍來看，IQOS 在 2026 年將繼續保持良好的成長勢頭。

Great. And just one clarification question, just to be explicit in terms of the midterm or '26 to '28 guidance. Is the -- 26 -- correct me if I'm wrong, but '26 does not include anything for ILUMA in the US, but there is something included for the sort of '27-'28 time frame. Is that fair? Or correct me if I'm wrong, please.

偉大的。還有一個需要澄清的問題，為了明確中期考試或 2026 年至 2028 年的指導方針。——26——如果我錯了請糾正我，但是26年並沒有包含美國ILUMA的任何內容，但是包含了27-28年時間段的內容。這樣公平嗎？如果我錯了，請指正。

It's broadly fair. Well, I do know. Sorry, I'm serious. We have a number of discussions over the last years with regards to the estimated or expected timing of this long overdue authorization from the FDA, but we have somehow make the assumptions for IQOS entering the US market in a planned period.

整體來說還算公平。嗯，我知道。抱歉，我是認真的。過去幾年，我們曾多次討論 FDA 何時會批准這項姍姍來遲的授權，但我們仍然假設 IQOS 將在計劃的時間內進入美國市場。

But I don't think the algorithm which we'll lay down in front of you today. is heavily materially dependent on the IQOS in the US But IQOS is including there, both from the investment and some expected volumes.

但我認為我們今天要向大家介紹的演算法，並非嚴重依賴美國市場的IQOS。不過，IQOS在美國的銷售額和預期銷售都對我們有很大影響。

Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

邦妮·赫爾佐格，高盛集團。

All right. I wanted to follow up on Japan and the excise tax situation. I mean as you mentioned, we've known or seen that you're applying or you did apply for a price increase on top of the tax. So hoping you could talk a little bit more about the elasticities you're expecting with volumes, I assume being pretty negatively impacted? And I guess, will the leverage on the incremental pricing you're hoping to get be enough to drive margin expansion and income growth in the room gen?

好的。我想了解一下日本的消費稅狀況。我的意思是，正如您所提到的，我們已經知道或看到您正在申請或已經申請在稅款之外提高價格。所以，我希望您能再詳細談談您預期銷售彈性會受到的負面影響，我猜想影響會相當負面？那麼，您希望透過提高價格來推動客房收入成長和利潤率提升，這種槓桿作用是否足以實現呢？

Okay. The price consumer will be -- or will start being impacted, we'll start seeing the prices as of April 1, right? So this is still a little bit in front of us. There obviously will be some IMS shipment type of distortions, consumers can do some buying ahead or maybe not. I mean all of these things will somehow wash out for the year.

好的。消費者將會－或者說將會開始受到價格的影響，我們將從4月1日起開始看到價格變化，對吧？所以，這事兒還得過一段時間才能解決。顯然，IMS出貨方面會出現一些偏差，消費者可以提前購買，也可以不購買。我的意思是，所有這些事情最終都會在一年內被沖淡。

Now there are two steps of excise increases for [typic] tobacco products in 2026, one which, again, will the -- sorry, will hit the consumers in April 1, and the other in October, okay? The amount or the size of the excise increase may not immediately warrant that will -- and I don't want to now talk about the pricing strategy, et cetera -- may not immediately warrant, depends on which strategies at play on the margin expansion. But I do believe you know what is our approach to passing on prices, and we're continuously working on the margin expansion. I think over a bit longer period of time, we will get where we wanted to get. But I cannot comment more.

2026 年，[典型]菸草產品的消費稅將分兩階段上調，第一階段將於 4 月 1 日生效，第二階段將於 10 月生效，明白嗎？消費稅增加的金額或規模可能不會立即證明——我現在不想談論定價策略等等——可能不會立即證明，這取決於利潤率擴張所採取的策略。但我相信您了解我們傳遞價格的方式，我們也不斷努力擴大利潤率。我認為，只要時間長一些，我們就能達到想要的目標。但我不能再多說了。

I figured, I just -- all right. That was still helpful, I appreciate it. And then I did want to just maybe ask a high-level question on your guidance this year. Could you maybe frame for us or touch on the key growth drivers that really will allow you to deliver on your top and bottom-line guidance and possibly beat it? Considering you're lapping several strong years of growth.

我想，我就是──好吧。這仍然很有幫助，謝謝。然後，我也想就您今年的指導工作問一個比較高層次的問題。您能否為我們概述一下或談談真正能讓您實現營收和利潤目標並可能超越目標的關鍵成長驅動因素？考慮到你們已經經歷了數年的強勁增長期。

I think that's been a key question, just given the momentum, so it's helpful just to kind of have you kind of frame for us what are kind of the key drivers of this? And then in the context of that, I did want to just make sure to understand how much of an increase or not your guidance assumes in terms of planned investment spend this year versus last? And I guess, again, I'm asking, thinking about everything that you're planning on rolling out, of course, depending on the FDA.

我認為這是一個關鍵問題，鑑於目前的勢頭，所以請您為我們概述一下，這其中的關鍵驅動因素是什麼，這將很有幫助？在此背景下，我想確認一下，貴方的指導意見認為今年的計畫投資支出比去年增加了多少？我想再問一下，考慮到你們計劃推出的所有產品，當然，這還要取決於美國食品藥物管理局（FDA）的批准。

Look, I mean, obviously, there is some degree of assumptions which we're taking on FDA. And -- okay. Let me answer this different. If we talk specifically about the ZYN and ZYN Ultra, our pending application, which is very much in the higher nicotine strength. Obviously, more is even some flavors, et cetera.

你看，我的意思是，很明顯，我們對FDA有一些假設。好的。讓我換個方式來回答這個問題。如果具體談到 ZYN 和 ZYN Ultra，我們正在申請的產品，其尼古丁濃度非常高。顯然，更多種類甚至包括一些口味等等。

We have a readiness to launch the product essentially as -- well, essentially as we speak. So it all depends on how quickly we can get an answer from FDA. And I will stay from fortune telling by my precise timing of FDA. I mean I didn't have a great track record of forecasting FDA in the past, so I have to be a little modest.

我們已經做好推出該產品的準備，基本上就是現在——嗯，基本上就是現在。所以，一切都取決於我們能多快從FDA得到答案。我不會根據我對FDA審批時間的精確把握來預測未來。我的意思是，我過去對FDA的預測並沒有很好的記錄，所以我必須謙虛一點。

But I think it's going to happen, okay? Summer this year, I think the plan is very balanced. And obviously, we will be -- I mean -- sorry, ZYN is growing in the US, but it's not growing at our expectations. If you measure the category growth versus ZYN growth, at least the recently, et cetera, I mean this -- this will have to be addressed. IQOS, and I said, is somehow baked in a plant.

但我認為這件事一定會發生，好嗎？我認為今年夏季的計劃安排非常均衡。很顯然，我們會——我的意思是——抱歉，ZYN 在美國的成長是存在的，但成長速度並沒有達到我們的期望。如果以品類成長與 ZYN 成長進行比較，至少在最近一段時間內，等等，我的意思是──這個問題必須解決。我說，IQOS 似乎是在工廠烘焙的。

And the way we did this algorithm provides a good balance between timing, volume expectations and investment. Now we need to remember that when we talk about the ZYN and VEEV, for example, on international, I mean, at least the product categories are vastly enjoying the infrastructure which we have built over time on IQOS.

我們設計的這種演算法能夠在時機、交易量預期和投資之間取得良好的平衡。現在我們需要記住，例如，當我們在國際上談論 ZYN 和 VEEV 時，我的意思是，至少這些產品類別正在廣泛受益於我們隨著時間的推移在 IQOS 上建立的基礎設施。

And I believe the longer we wait also in the US, we may end up in the -- a similar but reverse thing. It is a ZYN and is infrastructure, back-office capabilities, et cetera, which will start being later on share for IQOS.

而且我相信，如果我們在美國等待的時間越長，我們最終可能會陷入——類似但相反的境地。它屬於 ZYN，是基礎設施、後台功能等等，稍後將開始與 IQOS 共用。

So I remember you always were asking these questions about how much we will invest behind the IQOS, but everything depends about what other investments until this date we have been making and so on. Obviously, there will be some variable investment. You need to build awareness and so on, but these are not that heavy, maybe structure, long-lasting investments which are already built because we continue investing behind it.

所以我記得你總是問我們會在 IQOS 上投入多少資金，但一切都取決於我們迄今為止的其他投資等等。顯然，投資額會有一些浮動。你需要提高意識等等，但這些並不是很沉重的負擔，也許不是結構性的、持久性的投資，這些投資已經建立起來了，因為我們一直在背後投資。

Bonnie, just to maybe complement. There is no rupture in '26 versus the trend of the past years. So the fundamental drivers remain exactly the same. You have a powerful smoke-free portfolio which has continued to be dynamic. Yes, you have this Japanese situation, which is a one-off.

邦妮，只是順便提一下。2026 年的趨勢與過去幾年的趨勢並無斷裂。因此，根本驅動因素保持不變。您擁有強大的無菸產品組合，並且一直保持活力。是的，日本的情況屬於特例。

You have the high base of comparison in the US, which will have an impact in terms of growth versus what is real underlying growth. So that is something we are taking into account. But fundamentally, the dynamism is there. It's coming with a very nice positive mix impact on the margin and that is playing.

美國擁有較高的比較基數，這將對實際成長與潛在成長之間的關係產生影響。所以這是我們正在考慮的因素。但從根本上講，活力是存在的。它對利潤率產生了非常好的積極影響，而且這種影響正在發揮作用。

And on combustible, we have this resilient business model. Yes, in '26, we are expecting slightly more decrease, which is coming from, first of all, Turkey, where we still have a net one-off comparison even if things are gradually improving. But mainly two markets, India and Mexico, where you have massive excise duty increase that are going to happen. In India, you talk about a 40% plus price increase for the consumers. So we're going to have a huge impact on the market.

在可燃物領域，我們擁有這種具有韌性的商業模式。是的，我們預計 2026 年的降幅會略有增加，這首先是由於土耳其的降幅，儘管土耳其的情況正在逐步改善，但仍存在一次性淨降幅。但主要影響的是印度和墨西哥這兩個市場，這兩個市場的消費稅將大幅上漲。在印度，消費者要面臨超過 40% 的價格上漲。所以我們將對市場產生巨大影響。

So this is impacting the volume. But even with that, we are targeting to have this resilient model, where with the decline in volume, we believe we can grow low single digit, the revenue, and low to mid-single digit, the gross profit.

所以這影響了交易量。但即便如此，我們仍致力於打造這種具有韌性的模式，相信在銷量下降的情況下，我們仍能實現收入的低個位數增長，以及毛利的低至中等個位數增長。

So as you can see, the '26 objective is not very far from the CAGR of the midterm growth algorithm. The fundamentals remain exactly the same. We have a couple of special events we're going to overcome and offset, and that is really what is driving the difference. But fundamentally, the powerful dynamic behind the business remain exactly the same.

因此，正如你所看到的，2026 年的目標與中期成長演算法的複合年增長率相差不大。基本原理完全沒有改變。我們需要克服並抵消幾個特殊事件的影響，這才是真正帶來差異的原因。但從根本上講，該行業背後的強大動力仍然完全一樣。

Faham Baig, UBS.

法哈姆·拜格，瑞銀集團。

I've got a couple as well. I do want to push you on innovation a bit as we approach the five-year mark since the launch of IQOS ILUMA and we look forward to the next evolution. What technical or functional attributes do you see could further improve consumer conversion, particularly in the emerging markets?

我也有幾張。鑑於 IQOS ILUMA 發布至今已近五年，我想在創新方面再多加努力，我們期待下一次的革新。您認為哪些技術或功能屬性可以進一步提高消費者轉換率，尤其是在新興市場？

And the second question goes back to ZYN. We've observed notable absence of ZYN promotions over the last 2 months in the US Can you clarify, is this a deliberate shift as you await the offering of ZYN Ultra, which is a higher moist product, which you mentioned? Or is there a shift between how aggressive you want to currently drive trial versus looking to capture the 50% category growth you've alluded to historically?

第二個問題要回到 ZYN 身上。我們注意到過去兩個月在美國，ZYN 的促銷活動明顯減少。您能否解釋一下，這是因為您正在等待推出您提到的更滋潤的 ZYN Ultra 產品，所以才做出這樣的調整？或者，您目前希望積極推動試用，還是希望實現您過去曾提到的 50% 的品類成長，這兩者之間是否存在轉變？

Okay. So the answer, I take the question. Okay. Starting with your first question. I'm very pleased and honored as the representative of PMI that you're tracking the innovation engine of PMI.

好的。所以，我的回答是，我來回答這個問題。好的。從你的第一個問題開始。身為 PMI 的代表，我非常高興且榮幸地看到你們關注 PMI 的創新引擎。

You're absolutely right, we're plus minus in the plan period approaching five years of IQOS ILUMA. So I think your predictions are pretty good, but I will not answer second part of that question is what the innovation is going to be, for the reasons which I guess are understandable.

您說得完全正確，我們在 IQOS ILUMA 計劃的五年期限內正處於損益平衡狀態。所以我認為你的預測相當不錯，但我不會回答問題的第二部分，即創新點是什麼，原因我想是可以理解的。

Now when it comes to promotions, I actually think it's the two months. There was obviously the difference in which promotions and intensity of promotions US market has deployed in Q3 and Q4. There were a couple of schemes which we didn't repeat it for -- that was our decisions. But I wouldn't just conclude that from a shorter period of time about the promotional intensity of activity or have it in a plant.

至於促銷活動，我認為實際上是這兩個月。很明顯，美國市場在第三季和第四季採取的促銷活動種類和力度有所不同。有幾個方案我們沒有重複使用──這是我們自己的決定。但我不會僅憑較短的時間段就得出關於促銷活動強度或在工廠中開展促銷活動的結論。

I cannot again talk about this. But the way to look at this -- and I think we've been very transparent in our remarks. They are free aspect of what will make long-term success of our pouch business in the US. And we're repeating what we always were doing on -- so far on the international. One is the brand, and there has to be quite a degree of the support from a brand-building activity. There is obviously the component of a portfolio, which is meeting at least the current trends.

我無法再談論這件事了。但看待這個問題的方式是——我認為我們在發言中已經非常坦誠了。它們是我們在美國實現包裝袋業務長期成功的自由組成部分。我們正在重複我們一直以來在國際上所做的事情。一是品牌，二是品牌建立活動必須提供相當程度的支援。顯然，投資組合中存在一個組成部分，它至少符合當前的趨勢。

We can have a separate conversations, which of these strengths we think may be longer lasting, which of this can be longer lasting. But the fact is that ZYN is doing okay within a day group of 3-, 6- milligram, but clearly is missing a higher nicotine strength. Okay, particularly maybe 9, may be others, okay? So that's the thing which we'll have to address and here, we need to deal with FDA.

我們可以分別討論一下，我們認為這些優勢中哪些可能更持久，哪些可以更持久。但事實是，ZYN 在 3 毫克、6 毫克的每日劑量範圍內表現尚可，但顯然缺乏更高尼古丁濃度的產品。好的，特別是第9個，也可能是其他的，好的？所以這就是我們需要解決的問題，我們需要和美國食品藥物管理局（FDA）打交道。

And there is a third component into this thing, which is obviously price and a price premium which consumer is willing to pay for ZYN in exchange for having a reputable, vibrant, dynamic brand and the right product. So there will be element of -- it's almost like we're going to the tax book of ultimately forgot a marketing mix and to have the right price, right product, right place, right promotions. And we will be diligently deploying all of those components together. I hope I answer at least partially, your question.

這件事還有第三個組成部分，那就是價格，消費者願意為 ZYN 支付溢價，以換取一個信譽良好、充滿活力、蓬勃發展的品牌和合適的產品。所以其中會包含一些因素——這幾乎就像我們最終忘記了行銷組合，而行銷組合需要合適的價格、合適的產品、合適的地點和合適的促銷活動。我們將認真地把所有這些元件一起部署到位。我希望我的回答至少能部分解答你的問題。

No, that's very helpful. Given my first question wasn't answered, can I squeeze in another one for Emmanuel quickly?

不，這很有幫助。鑑於我的第一個問題沒有得到解答，我能盡快再問一個關於伊曼紐爾的問題嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Emmanuel, the currency guidance for the year was significantly better than the three estimates. Could you maybe share the key drivers why that could have been? And also provide the hedge rates for the year for the key currencies would be really helpful.

伊曼紐爾，今年的貨幣指引明顯優於先前的三個預測。您能否分享一下造成這種情況的關鍵原因？如果能提供主要貨幣的年度對沖利率就更好了。

Yes. So probably the -- I mean the reason why is that we are going to benefit from some significant negative transactional impact in 2025 which are not going to repeat based on the current Forex in 2026. So when I look at the $0.27 guidance, you have two thirds that is coming from translation, but around one third is coming from transaction. So I believe that is probably what the Street doesn't have, of course, because it's difficult to have.

是的。所以，原因可能是——我的意思是，我們將在 2025 年受益於一些重大的負面交易影響，而根據目前的外匯市場情況，這些影響在 2026 年不會重現。所以，當我查看 0.27 美元的指導價時，其中三分之二來自翻譯，但大約三分之一來自交易。所以我認為，這大概就是華爾街所缺乏的，當然，因為這很難得到。

I'm not going to share precisely, the hedging, but yes, we continue to have some hedging that are helping us a little bit, notably on the yen because the euro has been going up, so the hedging on the year are no longer making a big difference. So we still enjoy a slightly better rate than the spot you can see on your screen. And that is limiting a little bit the negative impact, but let's be clear, in '25, the yen had a negative impact, and we are expecting in '26, another negative impact coming from the Japanese yen.

我不會透露具體的對沖策略，但確實，我們繼續進行一些對沖，這在一定程度上對我們有所幫助，尤其是在日圓方面，因為歐元一直在上漲，所以今年的對沖不再產生太大影響。所以，我們目前的價格仍然比您在螢幕上看到的價格略高一些。這在某種程度上限制了負面影響，但需要明確的是，2025 年日圓帶來了負面影響，我們預期 2026 年日圓還會帶來另一次負面影響。

Gerald, GM company.

杰拉德，通用汽車公司。

Thank you very much for the question. I just have one, I would love to get your thoughts. But last month, it was reported that New York is considering a significant excise tax increase on nicotine pouches. So just would love to get your thoughts when you consider the obvious potential for other states to maybe adopt similar proposals? And then maybe the impact you believe that this could have on the promotional environment or the competitive landscape?

非常感謝您的提問。我只有一個問題，很想聽聽你的想法。但上個月有報導稱，紐約州正在考慮大幅提高尼古丁袋的消費稅。所以，我很想聽聽您對其他州可能採納類似提案的看法？那麼，您認為這可能會對推廣環境或競爭格局產生什麼影響呢？

Yes. Obviously, we're aware of this proposal. I mean the comment I can make at this stage that is counterproductive to the health benefit for nicotine or smokers these products provide. So I think the legislator there is taking everything into consideration. Look, states in the US, as you know very well, are driven by the owner thinking process and not necessary one state actions are translating to our state actions, but let's see how it's going to unfold.

是的。顯然，我們已經了解這項提議。我的意思是，在這個階段我能發表的任何評論，都與這些產品給尼古丁或吸煙者帶來的健康益處背道而馳。所以我認為那位立法者已經考慮到了所有因素。你看，美國各州的決策都受州政府的思維方式驅動，一個州的政策不一定能轉化為我們州的政策，但讓我們看看事情會如何發展。

Again, I repeat because for us, it's very important that shortsighted approach to the excise on our products, which are vastly better than cigarettes, undermines real public health objectives. So I think it's just -- it's just a wrong idea.

我再次重申，因為對我們來說，對我們遠比香菸好得多的產品徵收消費稅的短視做法，會破壞真正的公共衛生目標，這一點非常重要。所以我認為這完全是——這完全是個錯誤的想法。

Damian McNeela, Deutsche Bank.

達米安·麥克尼拉，德意志銀行。

Just one question for me, really, just on costs. You've indicated that you're on track to deliver $2 billion of cost savings by the end of this year. Just wondering whether you're in a position to quantify whether we should expect a similar level of cost savings for the medium-term guidance to the end of '28 and what scope AI may have to accelerate cost savings, please?

我其實只有一個問題，就是關於費用的。您曾表示，您預計在今年底前實現 20 億美元的成本節約。我想請問您是否能夠量化一下，在中期指導期（截至 2028 年底）中，我們是否應該預期類似的成本節約水平，以及人工智慧在加速成本節約方面可能發揮的作用？

Well, so it's not part of the guidance we're providing today, but we certainly ambition to continue to be very efficient on our cost. Roughly speaking, I'm not going to give precisely, the split, but it's around 60% on COGS and the rest is on our notably back office cost and G&A. It is clear that we are targeting to build efficiency in the future coming from AI.

嗯，這不屬於我們今天提供的指導範圍，但我們當然希望繼續保持成本控制的效率。粗略地說，我不會給出精確的比例，但大約 60% 用於銷售成本，其餘部分用於我們主要的後台成本和一般及行政費用。很明顯，我們的目標是透過人工智慧來提高未來的效率。

Again, that's a topic that is quite sensitive if you start to say what you invest and what you expect from AI. But you should certainly expect that AI is going to be an engine for more efficiency and for cost performance in the future, absolutely.

再說一遍，如果你開始談論你對人工智慧的投資以及你對人工智慧的期望，那將是一個相當敏感的話題。但你完全可以預見，人工智慧在未來必將成為提高效率和成本效益的引擎，這是毋庸置疑的。

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back to management for closing remarks.

謝謝。我目前不再提出其他問題。現在我想把發言權交還給管理階層，請他們作總結陳詞。

So I have a last remark, and this is just the best proof that we're living in the environment when we have a digital AI and the human, both of us were human and this is not that the AI was hallucinating. I think I missed one number when it comes to the guidance of this year.

最後我還有一點要說，這正是最好的證明，我們生活在一個擁有數位人工智慧和人類的環境中，我們都是人類，這並不是人工智慧產生了幻覺。我覺得我在今年的指導方針中漏掉了一個數字。

Emmanuel corrected the number in terms of a currency impact going into the 2026. The number which you had on the slide, the number which you had on the release and the number which Emmanuel has quoted at the right numbers, apologies for this inconvenience, but this is the best proof that there was a live conference, not a digital conference. See you all at CAGNY.

埃馬紐埃爾修正了該數字，以反映 2026 年的匯率影響。您在幻燈片上列出的數字、您在新聞稿中列出的數字以及 Emmanuel 引用的數字都是正確的，對此造成的不便深表歉意，但這卻是證明這是一場現場會議而不是線上會議的最佳證據。CAGNY見！

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

See you soon. Thank you for your time. Thank you.

再見。感謝您抽出時間。謝謝。

Thank you for joining us. Please do contact the Investor Relations team if you have any follow-ups and have a good day.

感謝您的參與。如有任何後續事宜，請聯絡投資者關係團隊，祝您一切順利。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。