菲利普莫里斯國際 (PM) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Philip Morris International 2025 second-quarter results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加菲利普莫里斯國際2025年第二季業績電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, James Bushnell, Vice President and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係副總裁詹姆斯布希內爾 (James Bushnell)。請繼續。

Welcome. Thank you for joining us. Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2025 second quarter results. The press release is available on our website at www.pmi.com.

歡迎。感謝您加入我們。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含有關我們 2025 年第二季業績的詳細資訊。新聞稿可在我們的網站 www.pmi.com 上查閱。

A glossary of terms, including the definition for smoke-free products as well as adjustments, other calculations and reconciliations to the most directly comparable US GAAP measures for non-GAAP financial measures cited in this presentation are available in Exhibit 99.2 to the company's Form 8-K dated July 22, 2025, and on our Investor Relations website.

本簡報中引用的術語表（包括無菸產品的定義以及調整、其他計算和與最直接可比較的美國 GAAP 指標對非 GAAP 財務指標的調整）可在公司 2025 年 7 月 22 日的 8-K 表格附件 99.2 中找到，也可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

Today’s remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results. I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today’s presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements.

今天的評論包含前瞻性的陳述和對未來結果的預測。我請您注意今天的簡報和新聞稿中揭露的前瞻性和警示性聲明，以了解可能導致實際結果與預測或前瞻性聲明有重大差異的各種因素。

I’m joined today by Emmanuel Babeau, Chief Financial Officer. Over to you, Emmanuel.

今天和我一起出席的還有財務長 Emmanuel Babeau。交給你了，伊曼紐。

Thank you, James, and welcome everyone. We delivered an excellent set of H1 results following another very strong performance in the second quarter of 2025. Top-line dynamism from our smoke-free portfolio, which reached a record $4 billion in net revenues, coupled with margin improvements across our business, drove strong double-digit adjusted diluted earnings per share growth in both constant currency and dollar terms.

謝謝你，詹姆斯，歡迎大家。繼 2025 年第二季再次取得強勁表現之後，我們又取得了一系列出色的上半年業績。我們的無菸產品組合的營收活力達到了創紀錄的 40 億美元淨收入，再加上我們整個業務的利潤率提高，推動了按固定匯率和美元計算的強勁兩位數調整後攤薄每股收益增長。

The multicategory momentum of our smoke-free business accelerated, with a Q2 step-up in offtake growth for IQOS, ZYN and VEEV. As expected, IQOS delivered another strong performance with Heated tobacco units adjusted in market sales growth accelerating to 11.4% in Q2. This reflects broad-based growth both globally and in Europe as markets such as Italy pass the transitory disruption of the characterizing flavor ban.

我們的無菸業務的多類別發展勢頭加速，第二季度 IQOS、ZYN 和 VEEV 的銷售成長加快。正如預期的那樣，IQOS 再次表現強勁，第二季加熱不燃燒菸草市場銷售成長加速至 11.4%。這反映了全球和歐洲的廣泛成長，因為義大利等市場已經度過了特色風味禁令帶來的暫時中斷。

ZYN confirmed its upward trajectory with a significant acceleration in US consumer offtake growth to plus 26% for Q2 and plus 36% in June as in-store availability improved. Internationally, Q2 nicotine pouch volumes increased plus 65% and almost trebled outside the Nordics.

隨著店內供應量的改善，ZYN 確認了其上升軌跡，美國消費者購買量成長顯著加速，第二季成長 26%，6 月成長 36%。在國際上，第二季尼古丁袋銷量成長了 65%，北歐以外的銷量幾乎成長了兩倍。

In e-vapor, VEEV continued its remarkable trajectory, with shipments more than doubling year-on-year, driving further gross margin expansion. For combustibles, despite an expected return to modest volume declines, our business delivered robust top and bottom-line performance reflecting its resilient model, led by strong pricing.

在電子煙領域，VEEV 延續了其顯著的成長軌跡，出貨量年增一倍以上，推動毛利率進一步擴大。對於可燃物，儘管預計銷量將小幅下降，但我們的業務仍實現了強勁的營收和利潤表現，體現了其在強勁定價的帶動下具有彈性的模式。

We continue to generate best-in-class growth across the P&L, with high single-digit organic H1 top-line growth and mid-teens adjusted OI growth to reach a margin of over 41%. This high-quality performance reflects the increasing profitability of our three smokefree categories as scale, operating leverage and efficiencies combine.

我們的損益表持續實現一流的成長，上半年有機營業收入實現高個位數成長，調整後營業利潤達到中等幅度成長，利潤率達到 41% 以上。這種高品質的表現反映了我們三個無菸類別的獲利能力隨著規模、經營槓桿和效率的結合而不斷提高。

These results provide an excellent platform for another year of superior growth. We expect strong smoke-free momentum to continue in H2, while we factor in the exceptional H2 prior year comparison, notably on growing combustible volumes, and certain timing factors.

這些業績為下一年度的優異成長提供了良好的平台。我們預計下半年強勁的無菸勢頭將持續下去，同時我們也考慮到了與去年同期相比下半年的特殊情況，特別是可燃物量的增加，以及某些時間因素。

With strong business fundamentals and a slightly more favorable expected tax rate, we are raising our adjusted diluted EPS full year forecast to plus 13% to plus 15% growth, or plus 11.5% to plus 13.5% excluding currency.

由於業務基本面強勁且預期稅率略有改善，我們將全年調整後稀釋每股盈餘預測上調至成長 13% 至 15%，或不包括貨幣因素成長 11.5% 至 13.5%。

Looking at our Q2 financials, we delivered another quarter of shipment volume growth of plus 1.2% and organic top-line growth of plus 6.8%, or plus 7.1% in dollar terms, to reach over $10 billion in quarterly net revenues for the first time. Excluding the Indonesia technical impact explained last quarter, organic net revenues grew by more than plus 8%.

從我們的第二季財務數據來看，我們本季的出貨量成長了 1.2%，有機營收成長了 6.8%，以美元計算則成長了 7.1%，季淨營收首次超過 100 億美元。不計上季解釋的印尼技術影響，有機淨收入成長超過 8%。

Adjusted OI grew by plus 14.9% organically, with growing profitability in all categories, positive smoke-free margin mix and ongoing cost efficiencies. Adjusted diluted EPS of $1.91 reflects growth of plus 20% including a favorable currency variance of $0.02, $0.04 lower than previously guided, mainly due to intercompany transactional impacts from currency volatility at period-end, including on the Swiss Franc. This better-than expected EPS delivery notably reflects strong top-line momentum, positive margin evolution in our Smoke-free products business, and robust combustible pricing.

調整後的營業利潤有機成長 14.9%，所有類別的獲利能力均有所成長，無菸利潤率組合呈現正面態勢，且成本效率持續提高。調整後稀釋每股收益為 1.91 美元，反映出成長 20%，其中包括 0.02 美元的有利貨幣差異，比之前預期低 0.04 美元，這主要是由於期末貨幣波動（包括瑞士法郎）對公司間交易的影響。每股收益優於預期，明顯反映了強勁的營收成長動能、無菸產品業務的利潤率積極變化以及強勁的可燃物定價。

Combining this excellent Q2 with a strong first quarter, we achieved one of our strongest ever H1 performances. Total shipment volumes grew by plus 2.5%, and organic net revenues by plus 8.4%, or approximately plus 10% excluding the Indonesia technical impact.

結合出色的第二季業績和強勁的第一季表現，我們取得了有史以來最強勁的上半年業績之一。總出貨量成長了 2.5%，有機淨收入成長了 8.4%，若不計印尼的技術影響則成長了約 10%。

Strong performance from both smoke-free and combustibles drove adjusted operating income growth of circa plus 15% in both organic and USD terms to reach $8 billion in total. H1 adjusted diluted EPS was up by plus 17.7% in constant currency and by plus 16.1% in dollar terms.

無菸和可燃產品的強勁表現推動調整後的營業收入以有機和美元計算增長約 15%，總計達到 80 億美元。上半年調整後稀釋每股盈餘以固定匯率計算成長 17.7%，以美元計算成長 16.1%。

Turning to shipment volumes, we delivered Q2 growth of plus 1.2%, and plus 2.5% for the first half driven by more than plus 13% growth from our smoke-free business. While adjusted in market sales growth accelerated, Q2 HTU shipment volumes grew plus 9.2% to 38.8 billion units, including robust growth in Europe & Japan, as well as promising growth from global markets such as Indonesia, South Korea, and Global Travel Retail.

談到出貨量，我們第二季度實現了 1.2% 的成長，上半年實現了 2.5% 的成長，這得益於我們無菸業務超過 13% 的成長。雖然調整後的市場銷售成長加速，但第二季 HTU 出貨量成長 9.2% 至 388 億台，其中包括歐洲和日本的強勁成長，以及印尼、韓國和全球旅遊零售等全球市場的良好成長。

H1 HTU shipments increased by plus 10.5%, broadly in line with adjusted IMS growth. As mentioned last quarter, our H1 shipments include a Q1 shipment timing benefit of around 1 billion units which we expect to reverse in the fourth quarter.

H1 HTU 出貨量成長了 10.5%，與調整後的 IMS 成長基本一致。正如上個季度所提到的，我們的 H1 出貨量包括第一季約 10 億台的出貨時間優勢，我們預計這一優勢將在第四季逆轉。

Oral and evapor shipments again grew significantly. Cigarette volumes declined modestly in Q2 following the exceptional growth of recent quarters. This was primarily due to contraction in Indonesia and in Turkey, where we experienced supply chain issues following a change in regulatory requirements.

口服液和蒸發劑的出貨量再次大幅成長。繼最近幾季的大幅成長之後，第二季捲菸銷量略有下降。這主要是由於印尼和土耳其的業務萎縮，在監管要求改變後，我們遇到了供應鏈問題。

This resulted in a temporary loss of volume and share, with some associated inventory write-downs. We expect a gradual recovery through the remainder of the year, though H2 year-on-year comparisons are still likely to be affected. In Indonesia, despite a good share performance, a growing illicit segment is impacting both the legal industry and our volumes within it, and this is also likely to extend into H2.

這導致銷量和份額暫時下降，並伴隨相關庫存減記。我們預計今年剩餘時間內經濟將逐步復甦，但下半年年比數據仍可能受到影響。在印度尼西亞，儘管股票表現良好，但不斷增長的非法活動正在影響合法行業及其交易量，而且這種情況也可能延續到下半年。

We expect our cigarette volumes to decline around 2% for the year, more in line with the historic underlying trend. This includes a forecast decline of 3% to 4% in H2 against the high prior year comparison I mentioned, with Turkey accounting for close to half of this decline. This also factors the continuation of declines in Europe and Japan as Smoke-free products grow strongly, and the dynamics in Indonesia and in Egypt, where the recovery of the main local competitor is ongoing after previous supply constraints.

我們預計今年的捲菸銷量將下降約 2%，這與歷史基本趨勢更加一致。這包括與我提到的去年同期相比，下半年預計將下降 3% 至 4%，其中土耳其佔了下降幅度的近一半。這也考慮到了歐洲和日本在無菸產品強勁增長的情況下繼續下滑，以及印尼和埃及的動態，在先前的供應限制之後，主要本地競爭對手的復甦正在進行中。

As a testament to the resilience of our combustible model, we are still targeting combustible gross profit growth in H2, supported by pricing and cost efficiencies.

作為我們可燃模型彈性的證明，我們仍然以下半年可燃毛利成長為目標，並透過定價和成本效率的支持。

For Smoke-free products, we anticipate continued double-digit volume growth in H2, including the expected reversal of H1 phasing benefits on IQOS. However, given cigarette dynamics it is possible that H2 may see modest declines for total PMI volumes. Importantly, with a forecast full-year increase of around plus 1% we continue to target our fifth consecutive year of total volume growth, as we do for future years as our smoke-free portfolio continues to drive performance.

對於無菸產品，我們預計下半年銷售將持續維持兩位數成長，包括預期上半年 IQOS 分階段優勢的逆轉。然而，考慮到香菸的動態，下半年 PMI 總量可能會出現小幅下降。重要的是，預計全年成長率約為 1%，我們將繼續瞄準連續第五年實現總銷量成長，正如我們對未來幾年所做的那樣，因為我們的無菸產品組合將繼續推動業績成長。

Breaking the performance down by category, exceptional gross margin and OI growth in Q2 resulted in impressive first half results, powered by our increasingly profitable Smoke-free business.

按類別細分業績，第二季出色的毛利率和 OI 成長帶來了令人印象深刻的上半年業績，這得益於我們利潤不斷增長的無菸業務。

H1 smoke-free net revenues grew organically by plus 17.3% to $8.1 billion, and gross profit by plus 27% to $5.6 billion, with plus 530 basis points of organic expansion to reach over 70% gross margin. This is around 4.5 points above the gross margin of combustibles at the current category and geographic mix.

H1無菸淨收入有機成長17.3%至81億美元，毛利有機成長27%至56億美元，有機擴張530個基點，毛利率達70%以上。這比目前類別和地理分佈下的可燃物的毛利率高出約 4.5 個百分點。

As in 2024, this reflects continued margin expansion for all three smoke-free categories, notably combined with the positive mix impact of ZYN’s accretive unit economics, and pricing on both HTUs and ZYN.

與 2024 年一樣，這反映了所有三個無菸類別的利潤率持續擴大，尤其是與 ZYN 增值單位經濟效益以及 HTU 和 ZYN 定價的積極組合影響相結合。

Very strong IQOS gross margin expansion reflects the powerful growth and scale effects of this large and growing business, manufacturing productivities and a comparison benefit from higher device shipments in the prior year, when ILUMA i was launched in Japan and other markets.

IQOS 毛利率的強勁成長反映了這龐大且不斷成長的業務的強大成長和規模效應、製造生產力以及去年 ILUMA i 在日本和其他市場推出時設備出貨量增加帶來的比較優勢。

We expect strong margins to continue in H2, albeit without the device year-on-year comparison benefit as we also further expand the presence of ILUMA i across markets and bonds in Indonesia.

我們預計，儘管沒有該設備年比效益，但下半年仍將保持強勁的利潤率，因為我們還將進一步擴大 ILUMA i 在印尼市場和債券中的影響力。

Combustible net revenues increased plus 2.9%, or more than 5% excluding the Indonesia technical impact. Gross profit grew by plus 5%, driving plus 140 basis points of margin expansion despite the financial impact of the Turkey disruption. This includes a robust Q2 with organic net revenue growth of plus 2% and gross profit growth of plus 4.8%.

可燃物淨收入成長 2.9%，若不計印尼技術影響，則成長 5% 以上。儘管受到土耳其中斷的財務影響，毛利仍成長了 5%，推動利潤率成長了 140 個基點。其中包括強勁的第二季度，有機淨收入成長 2%，毛利成長 4.8%。

This performance epitomizes the resilience of our ongoing combustibles business model, with low-single digit volume declines, robust pricing and efficiencies combining to deliver top-line and gross profit growth over time. We continue to target combustible gross margin expansion organically and in dollar terms for the year, despite slower pricing and weaker volumes in H2.

這一業績體現了我們正在進行的可燃物業務模式的彈性，低個位數的銷量下降、強勁的定價和效率相結合，隨著時間的推移實現了營業收入和毛利的增長。儘管下半年定價放緩、銷售疲軟，我們仍將今年可燃性毛利率以美元計算有機擴張作為目標。

The combination of sustained smoke-free momentum and combustible resilience led to plus 15.4% H1 organic OI growth at total PMI level, resulting in plus 250 basis points of operating income margin expansion to surpass 41%.

持續的無菸勢頭和可燃性相結合，導致整體 PMI 水準的 H1 有機 OI 成長增加 15.4%，從而使營業收入利潤率擴大 250 個基點，超過 41%。

H1 net revenue growth of 8.4% was again fueled by the three engines of our top-line growth model: with positive volumes, robust pricing and favorable smoke-free mix. Pricing contributed plus 5.2 points, driven by combustible pricing of plus 7.7%, and low-single digit smoke-free pricing excluding devices. The positive mix impact of rapid SFP growth drove a further contribution of plus 3.1 points.

上半年淨收入成長 8.4%，這再次得益於我們營收成長模式的三大引擎：積極的銷售、強勁的定價和有利的無菸產品組合。定價貢獻了 5.2 個百分點，其中可燃物定價上漲 7.7%，不含設備的無菸定價也處於低個位數。SFP 快速成長帶來的正向組合效應進一步推動了 3.1 個百分點的貢獻。

Combustible geographic mix and other factors had an unfavorable impact of 2.4 points, including the Indonesia technical impact of around 1.5 points. Currency had a negative impact of 1.5 points, with a further 0.4 points from acquisitions and divestitures, which includes the divestment of Vectura.

可燃地理結構和其他因素產生了 2.4 點的不利影響，其中包括印尼的技術影響約 1.5 點。貨幣因素造成了 1.5 個百分點的負面影響，而收購和資產剝離（包括對 Vectura 的剝離）又造成了 0.4 個百分點的負面影響。

Turning now to gross margins, we delivered H1 organic expansion of plus 300 basis points, and plus 320 basis points including currency, acquisitions and divestitures. Pricing made a plus 160 basis points contribution, more than offsetting the 60 basis points unfavorable impact from cost inflation net of productivities and other cost items.

現在談談毛利率，我們實現了 H1 有機擴張 +300 個基點，包括貨幣、收購和資產剝離在內的成長 +320 個基點。定價貢獻了 160 個基點，足以抵消扣除生產力和其他成本項目後的成本通膨造成的 60 個基點的不利影響。

Smoke-free growth drove an excellent plus 190 basis points, reflecting the factors I covered earlier. The impact of Combustibles was broadly flat excluding pricing but including the Indonesia impact.

無菸成長推動了 190 個基點的出色成長，反映了我之前提到的因素。不包括定價但包括印尼的影響，可燃物的影響基本上持平。

Below gross profit, we continue to invest strongly in the future growth of our smoke-free brands including in the US, with SG&A organic growth of plus 10.6% for H1, marginally above net revenue growth excluding the technical impact of Indonesia.

在毛利潤之下，我們繼續大力投資於包括美國在內的無菸品牌的未來成長，上半年銷售、一般及行政開支有機增長率為 10.6%，略高於不包括印尼技術影響的淨收入增長。

We achieved more than $500 million in gross cost savings year-to-date through our manufacturing and back-office efficiency initiatives. Now at the mid-point of our target 2024-'26 period, we have delivered over $1.2 billion, placing us well on track towards our $2 billion objective.

今年迄今為止，我們透過製造和後台效率措施已實現超過 5 億美元的總成本節約。現在，我們正處於 2024 - 2026 年目標期的中期，我們已經交付了超過 12 億美元，朝著 20 億美元的目標穩步前進。

Altogether, with gross margin expansion more than compensating for higher year-on-year commercial investments, we delivered plus 290 basis points of adjusted operating income margin expansion in H1, or plus 250 basis points organically. Q2 organic OI margin expansion of plus 300 basis points was even stronger than the plus 200 basis points in our first quarter.

整體而言，由於毛利率的成長足以彌補商業投資年成長的影響，我們在上半年實現了調整後營業收入利潤率成長 290 個基點，或自然成長 250 個基點。第二季有機 OI 利潤率成長 300 個基點，甚至強於第一季的 200 個基點。

Focusing now on our Smoke-free business, where our multicategory strategy is facilitating the continuous growth of our smoke-free user base. Estimated legal-age consumers of our SFPs grew by approximately 5 million versus one year ago, reaching around 41.5 million as of June 30.

現在我們專注於無菸業務，我們的多類別策略正在促進無菸用戶群的持續成長。與一年前相比，我們 SFP 的法定年齡消費者估計增加了約 500 萬，截至 6 月 30 日已達到約 4,150 萬。

Our smoke-free products are now available in 97 markets following the Q2 launch of ZYN in Ireland and Cambodia. Almost half of these markets now have a multicategory offer with at least two of IQOS, ZYN and VEEV on sale to legal-age nicotine users.

繼第二季在愛爾蘭和柬埔寨推出 ZYN 之後，我們的無菸產品現已在 97 個市場上市。目前，這些市場中幾乎有一半都提供多類別產品，其中至少有兩種 IQOS、ZYN 和 VEEV 是針對法定年齡的尼古丁使用者銷售。

As shown on this slide, we now have all three categories deployed in 20 markets as we continue to broaden our multicategory presence. The regulatory environment is a key enabler of smoke-free growth and I’m pleased to report some more examples of positive progress, such as legislation providing new market access for one or more SFP categories across several Middle East markets.

正如這張投影片所示，隨著我們繼續擴大多品類業務，我們目前已將所有三個品類部署到 20 個市場。監管環境是無菸成長的關鍵推動因素，我很高興地報告一些積極進展的例子，例如立法為中東多個市場的一個或多個 SFP 類別提供新的市場准入。

We also note the recently published proposal to revise the EU Tobacco Excise Directive, which marks the start of a formal legislative process that will require unanimous approval by all Member States and subsequent transposition into national law. Many Member States have already adopted risk-proportionate regulations and taxation frameworks for smoke-free products, which can serve as a valuable foundation and benchmark for shaping the final Directive.

我們也注意到最近發布的修訂歐盟菸草消費稅指令的提案，這標誌著正式立法程序的開始，需要所有成員國的一致批准，然後轉化為國家法律。許多成員國已經採用了針對無菸產品的風險比例法規和稅收框架，這可以作為制定最終指令的寶貴基礎和基準。

While we note the clear differentiation for smoke-free products relative to combustibles in the proposed minimum rates, we are also disappointed to observe the lack of a plan to counter the threat of illicit trade, which accounted for 9.2% of total EU cigarette consumption in 2024, with governments losing over EUR14 billion in tax revenues at a time when many countries face intense economic pressures.

雖然我們注意到擬議的最低稅率中無菸產品與可燃產品有明顯區別，但我們也失望地發現缺乏應對非法貿易威脅的計劃，非法貿易佔2024年歐盟捲菸總消費量的9.2％，在許多國家面臨巨大經濟壓力的時候，政府損失了超過140億歐元的稅收收入。

Our multicategory approach is built on the strength of the brand and commercial presence of IQOS, which remains our core Smoke-free products growth engine. We continue to be laser-focused on maximizing the growth of IQOS over time, with the deployment of ZYN and VEEV under its umbrella offering complementary opportunities to fully transition legal-age nicotine users from cigarettes to SFPs.

我們的多類別方法建立在 IQOS 的品牌和商業影響力之上，這仍然是我們核心的無菸產品成長引擎。我們將繼續專注於最大限度地促進 IQOS 的長期增長，在其旗下部署 ZYN 和 VEEV 可提供互補機會，讓法定年齡的尼古丁使用者完全從香菸過渡到 SFP。

In this context I am especially pleased to confirm the acceleration in IQOS HTU adjusted IMS growth to plus 11.4% in Q2, notably driven by Europe and including excellent progress in its largest market of Italy, as the impact of the characterizing flavor ban recedes and our commercial initiatives bear fruit. Japan also delivered another robust quarter of growth, and other global markets accelerated nicely.

在此背景下，我特別高興地確認，IQOS HTU 調整後的 IMS 成長率在第二季加速至 11.4%，這主要是受歐洲的推動，其中包括其在義大利最大市場的出色進展，因為特色風味禁令的影響正在消退，而且我們的商業舉措取得了成果。日本也再次實現了強勁成長，其他全球市場也呈現良好成長動能。

While competitive activity is increasing, we see this as positive for category growth over time and we expect continued strong IQOS progress in H2. We continue to target plus 10% to plus 12% HTU adjusted IMS growth for the year.

雖然競爭活動正在增加，但我們認為這對長期的類別成長有利，我們預計 IQOS 在下半年將繼續保持強勁成長。我們繼續將今年 HTU 調整後的 IMS 成長率定為 10% 至 12%。

Continuous IQOS innovation on devices and consumables, combined with investments in brand equity, are fundamental pillars of our growth. The roll-out of the ILUMA i technology, now present in over 30 markets, remains ongoing. We are expanding the portfolio of LEVIA tobacco-free consumables with promising initial results from recently launched new taste variants and flavor capsules.

IQOS 在設備和耗材上的持續創新，加上對品牌資產的投資，是我們成長的基本支柱。ILUMA i 技術目前已涵蓋 30 多個市場，並且仍在持續推廣中。我們正在擴大 LEVIA 無菸消費品的產品組合，最近推出的新口味變體和風味膠囊已取得良好的初步成果。

We also commenced the rollout of a revamped pack design on our core premium TEREA HTUs, as well as the expansion of our mainstream-priced offering DELIA, with excellent results in markets such as Germany and Poland.

我們也開始在我們的核心高階產品 TEREA HTU 上推出改良的包裝設計，並擴展我們的主流價格產品 DELIA，並在德國和波蘭等市場取得了優異的成績。

In the US, we continue with small-scale IQOS three pilots, which are generating considerable adult consumer interest. As we progress our commercial pilot in Austin, we also launched a second pilot in Fort Lauderdale during the quarter, with further initiatives planned in the coming months as we prepare for the at-scale launch of IQOS ILUMA, once authorized by the FDA.

在美國，我們繼續進行小規模的 IQOS 三項試點，引起了成年消費者的極大興趣。隨著我們在奧斯汀的商業試點不斷推進，我們還在本季度在勞德代爾堡啟動了第二個試點，併計劃在未來幾個月採取進一步舉措，為 FDA 授權後大規模推出 IQOS ILUMA 做準備。

Our second flagship premium smoke-free brand ZYN leads a category which has the potential to fundamentally reshape the consumption of nicotine for the substantial net benefit of global public health as adult smokers increasingly switch to smoke-free products.

我們的第二個旗艦優質無菸品牌 ZYN 引領了一個類別，隨著成年吸菸者越來越多地轉向無菸產品，該品牌有可能從根本上重塑尼古丁的消費，從而為全球公共健康帶來巨大的淨效益。

Q2 can shipments grew by plus 43% on a global basis, and offtake reaccelerated strongly in the US, which I’ll come back to in more detail. Building on ZYN’s US strength, our global rollout continues to advance with Q2 international can volumes up plus 65% year-on-year, or a remarkable plus 179% excluding the Nordics.

第二季全球罐裝出貨量成長了 43%，其中美國的出貨量再次強勁成長，我稍後會更詳細地介紹這一點。憑藉 ZYN 在美國市場的強勁表現，我們的全球推廣持續推進，第二季國際罐裝量年增 65%，若不包括北歐地區，則顯著成長 179%。

The growth of our international business reflects both market expansion and strong offtake growth, supported by expanding production capacity in new geographies. Notable strong performances include our Global Travel Retail business with close to plus 200% volumes excluding the US, as well as the UK, Pakistan, Poland, South Africa and Mexico.

我們的國際業務的成長反映了市場擴張和強勁的銷售成長，這得益於新地區生產能力的擴大。值得關注的強勁表現包括我們的全球旅遊零售業務，除美國、英國、巴基斯坦、波蘭、南非和墨西哥外，銷量成長近 200%。

As covered in our recent Europe Focus event, our focus is on growing the category by switching legal-age smokers, rather than sourcing from the small existing category. It is also notable that ZYN holds the number one position in Mexico and South Africa, where we launched our predominantly mini dry portfolio at the same time as competitor brands.

正如我們最近的「歐洲焦點」活動所述，我們的重點是透過改變法定年齡的吸菸者來擴大類別，而不是從現有的小類別中尋找資源。值得注意的是，ZYN 在墨西哥和南非佔據第一的位置，我們與競爭品牌同時推出了以迷你乾啤酒為主的產品組合。

Dry pouches already make up the majority of our pouch volumes in more than three-quarters of ZYN markets and we believe this format is especially relevant for legal-age smokers. ZYN is now present in 44 markets globally, following additional launches in Q2.

在超過四分之三的 ZYN 市場中，乾袋裝捲菸已佔據捲菸銷售量的大部分，我們相信這種形式對於法定年齡的吸菸者來說尤其重要。繼第二季推出更多產品後，ZYN 目前已覆蓋全球 44 個市場。

Our smoke-free trilogy is completed by VEEV. H1 shipment volumes more than doubled to reach almost 1.5 billion equivalent units, with increasingly profitable growth driven by Europe where VEEV now holds the number one closed pod position in six markets, including Italy and Greece. Outside Europe, we see significant potential for the brand, with nice results in diverse markets such as Indonesia, Canada and Colombia, and further rollouts planned.

我們的無菸三部曲由 VEEV 完成。H1 出貨量增加了一倍多，達到近 15 億當量單位，歐洲推動了獲利成長，VEEV 目前在義大利和希臘等六個市場佔據第一的封閉式吊艙地位。在歐洲以外，我們看到了品牌的巨大潛力，在印尼、加拿大和哥倫比亞等不同市場都取得了良好的業績，並計劃進一步推廣。

Increasing repeat purchase rates and consumer loyalty are especially promising as we seek to leverage our multicategory infrastructure under the IQOS umbrella of quality, premiumness, and superior technology.

當我們尋求利用 IQOS 品質、高端性和卓越技術的保護傘下的多類別基礎設施時，提高重複購買率和消費者忠誠度尤其有前景。

In this vein, we recently launched our latest innovation VEEV inPRIME in the Czech Republic. inPRIME offers an upgraded premium user experience with higher intensity of flavors, a larger cloud size, and higher battery capacity with an optimized pod cost profile.

為此，我們最近在捷克共和國推出了最新創新產品 VEEV inPRIME。 inPRIME 提供升級的優質用戶體驗，具有更濃鬱的口味、更大的雲端量、更高的電池容量以及優化的 pod 成本配置。

The most developed multicategory consumer landscape is in Europe, and we now have 30 markets with at least two categories on offer. Of course, IQOS remains the core driver of our performance in the region and I am delighted to report a meaningful Q2 acceleration of HTU adjusted IMS growth to plus 9.1% as adjusted market share grew by plus 1.2 points year-on-year to 10.9%, in this seasonally higher period for combustibles.

最發達的多品類消費格局在歐洲，我們現在有 30 個市場提供至少兩個品類的產品。當然，IQOS 仍然是我們在該地區業績的核心驅動力，我很高興地報告，HTU 調整後的 IMS 增長率在第二季度顯著加速至 9.1%，因為調整後的市場份額同比增長 1.2 個百分點至 10.9%，而這一時期是可燃物季節性高發期。

As explained at our recent Europe event, IQOS has a very strong brand platform across the region and this performance reflects our innovation and commercial initiatives including those on ILUMA i, LEVIA and DELIA. This helped drive strong double-digit adjusted IMS growth across markets including Germany, Spain, Romania, Greece and Bulgaria.

正如我們最近的歐洲活動所解釋的那樣，IQOS 在整個地區擁有非常強大的品牌平台，這一表現反映了我們的創新和商業舉措，包括 ILUMA i、LEVIA 和 DELIA 上的舉措。這有助於推動德國、西班牙、羅馬尼亞、希臘和保加利亞等市場實現強勁的兩位數調整後 IMS 成長。

A significant Q2 call-out is Italy, Europe’s largest IQOS market by volume, which delivered a very welcome uptick in both sequential and year-on-year growth.

義大利是歐洲銷售量最大的 IQOS 市場，第二季表現尤為突出，其環比和年成長均呈現令人欣喜的成長動能。

With the exceptions of Poland, Austria, Estonia and Croatia, the impact of the EU characterizing flavor ban is now behind us, and our absolute regional growth in HTU adjusted IMS is now getting closer to pre-ban levels.

除波蘭、奧地利、愛沙尼亞和克羅埃西亞外，歐盟風味特徵禁令的影響已經過去，我們地區經 HTU 調整後的 IMS 絕對增長現已接近禁令前的水平。

While quarterly comparisons from 2024 have some volatility from flavor ban dynamics, sequential trends are very positive and we look forward to the remainder of the year with confidence in further strong IQOS growth.

雖然 2024 年的季度比較會因口味禁令動態而出現一些波動，但連續趨勢非常積極，我們期待今年剩餘時間 IQOS 能夠進一步強勁增長。

On top of this IQOS progression, the accretion from our multicategory strategy is evident in our total volumes of IQOS, ZYN and VEEV, with shipment growth of plus 13.5% in Q2, compared to HTUs alone at plus 10.5%. ZYN and VEEV are still very early in their development but are demonstrating exceptional growth.

除了 IQOS 的成長之外，我們多類別策略的成長也體現在 IQOS、ZYN 和 VEEV 的總銷量上，第二季的出貨量成長了 13.5%，而 HTU 的出貨量僅成長了 10.5%。ZYN 和 VEEV 仍處於發展的早期階段，但表現出了卓越的成長勢頭。

The numbers you see here are for Europe overall, and I would also note that where we are present with all three brands such as Italy, Greece, Poland and Romania, we see several points higher SFP volume growth.

您在這裡看到的數字是整個歐洲的數字，我還要指出的是，在我們涉及義大利、希臘、波蘭和羅馬尼亞這三個品牌的地方，SFP 銷售成長率高出幾個個百分點。

In Japan, we achieved the significant milestone of 10 million estimated users and Q2 adjusted HTU share increased plus 2.3 percentage points year-on-year to 31.7%, despite increased competitive intensity.

在日本，我們實現了預計用戶數 1,000 萬的重要里程碑，儘管競爭加劇，但第二季調整後的 HTU 份額同比增長 2.3 個百分點至 31.7%。

IQOS continues to deliver strong progress, with Q2 adjusted IMS growth of plus 7.8% against a prior year period which included the full launch of ILUMA i. As shown on the slide, IQOS delivered truly exceptional growth in 2023 and 2024, especially considering the size of the category now stands at almost half of total nicotine offtake volumes nationally, and more than half in 13 cities.

IQOS 持續保持強勁成長勢頭，第二季調整後的 IMS 銷售額年增 7.8%，其中包括全面推出 ILUMA i。如幻燈片所示，IQOS 在 2023 年和 2024 年實現了真正卓越的成長，尤其考慮到該類別的規模目前已佔全國尼古丁總消費量的近一半，並在 13 個城市佔據了超過一半的份額。

The high-single digit growth that our business delivered in H1 2025 remains very healthy and is essentially in line with the trend in the years prior. We expect further strong adjusted IMS growth in the remainder of the year.

我們的業務在 2025 年上半年實現的高個位數成長仍然非常健康，並且基本上與前幾年的趨勢一致。我們預計今年剩餘時間內調整後的 IMS 將進一步強勁成長。

We are pleased to see our competitors embrace the heat-not-burn category, as while our category share was sequentially stable at around 70% in Q2, our biggest focus is on accelerating the size of smoke-free products overall to maximize the growth of our leading proposition and convert more smokers.

我們很高興看到我們的競爭對手接受加熱不燃燒類別，雖然我們的類別份額在第二季度連續穩定在 70% 左右，但我們最大的重點是加速無菸產品的整體規模，以最大限度地提高我們領先主張的增長並轉化更多的吸煙者。

Switching now to the US. The strong reacceleration in ZYN offtake growth is a clear highlight of our Q2 performance and testament to the strength of the brand, as in-store availability improves and legal-age consumers regain access to the full ZYN portfolio offering.

現在切換到美國。隨著店內供應量的改善以及法定年齡消費者重新獲得完整的 ZYN 產品組合，ZYN 銷量的強勁增長是我們第二季度業績的明顯亮點，也是品牌實力的證明。

The supply constraints of previous quarters had limited the growth in sell-out volumes and meant ZYN was growing less than the overall category. With manufacturing capacity now in very good shape, the recovery to around plus 36% offtake volume growth in June as measured by Nielsen, and plus 26% in Q2 overall, marks the return of ZYN to its category-driving position in terms of growth and market share.

前幾季的供應限制限制了銷售量的成長，這意味著 ZYN 的成長速度低於整體類別。由於目前的製造能力非常好，尼爾森測量的 6 月份銷售量增長恢復至約 36%，第二季度整體增長 26%，標誌著 ZYN 在增長和市場份額方面重回領先地位。

On a sequential basis, ZYN offtake volumes accelerated to around plus 12% growth vs Q1, in line with the total category. With a number of commercial programs restarting at the end of the quarter, this is clearly very promising as we increasingly focus on legal-age smokers and vapers who have not yet switched to the category.

與上一季相比，ZYN 的銷售量較上季成長約 12%，與整體類別持平。隨著本季末重新啟動許多商業計劃，這顯然非常有前景，因為我們越來越關注尚未轉向該類別的法定年齡吸菸者和電子煙使用者。

Q2 shipments increased plus 41% year-on-year, reaching 190 million cans. As with any out-of-stock situation, quarterly shipments are subject to volatility. Restocking of the value chain was effectively completed in H1, with the majority of this taking place in the first quarter. We estimate the total net impact at broadly 40 million cans for the year, slightly below our initial expectations.

第二季出貨量年增41%，達到1.9億罐。與任何缺貨情況一樣，季度出貨量也會有所波動。價值鏈的補庫存在上半年已有效完成，其中大部分發生在第一季。我們估計，全年淨影響總量約為 4,000 萬罐，略低於我們最初的預期。

This factors in the good news that retail availability is now approaching normalized levels, with a lower scarcity premium in retail prices narrowing the price gap to competition. Importantly, sales velocities are accelerating, and with 36% offtake growth in June, this bodes well for the second half of the year.

好消息是，零售供應目前已接近正常水平，零售價格的稀缺溢價較低，縮小了與競爭對手的價格差距。重要的是，銷售速度正在加快，6 月的銷量成長了 36%，這預示著下半年的銷售情況良好。

With shipments now primarily driven by consumer offtake, we expect a broadly similar level of shipments in Q3 as in Q2, factoring in the possibility of a few days adjustment to wholesaler and distributor inventories as the situation fully normalizes. We continue to target full year US shipments of 800 million to 840 million cans, including a sequential step-up in Q4.

由於目前的出貨量主要由消費者購買驅動，我們預計第三季的出貨量與第二季大致相同，並考慮到隨著情況完全正常化，批發商和經銷商庫存可能需要幾天的調整。我們繼續將美國全年出貨量定為 8 億至 8.4 億罐，其中第四季將實現連續成長。

With our US production capacity increased ahead of plan and now well-set for this year and beyond, we are incredibly excited to drive ZYN and the overall nicotine pouch category to its full potential over the coming years.

隨著我們在美國的生產能力提前計劃提高，並且已經為今年及以後做好了準備，我們非常高興能夠在未來幾年內推動 ZYN 和整個尼古丁袋類別充分發揮其潛力。

Having covered Europe, Japan and the US in some detail, let’s look at the rest of the world. In most markets, both the nicotine pouch category and our multicategory presence are nascent. Both ZYN and VEEV will leverage on the strength of IQOS where Q2 adjusted IMS accelerated to plus 19.3% growth with broad-based progress including Egypt, the Philippines and Indonesia. While pouch and e-vapor volumes are naturally very small across these markets at this stage, we can measure their Q2 growth in multiples rather than percentages.

在詳細介紹了歐洲、日本和美國之後，讓我們來看看世界其他地區。在大多數市場中，尼古丁袋類別和我們的多類別業務都處於新興階段。ZYN 和 VEEV 都將利用 IQOS 的優勢，其中第二季調整後的 IMS 加速成長 19.3%，並在埃及、菲律賓和印尼等廣泛地區取得了進展。雖然現階段這些市場的袋裝煙和電子蒸汽煙銷量自然非常小，但我們可以用倍數而不是百分比來衡量它們第二季度的成長。

This impressive IQOS growth is exemplified by offtake share gains in global key cities. Strong progress in South Korea and Malaysia is more than matched by key cities in Mexico, Serbia, the Middle East and North Africa. Global Travel Retail, where multicategory is increasingly prominent, also continues to grow strongly.

全球主要城市的銷售份額成長就是 IQOS 令人印象深刻的成長的例證。韓國和馬來西亞的強勁發展勢頭與墨西哥、塞爾維亞、中東和北非的主要城市不相上下。全球旅遊零售業也持續強勁成長，其中多品類銷售日益突出。

The world’s largest cigarette market by volume outside China is Indonesia, where Jakarta offtake share grew by plus 2.5 points year-on-year to 7.5%. Following promising results from the pilot launch of our full-flavor heat-not-burn technology BONDS, which is tailored to local kretek taste preferences, we have recently commenced a broader roll-out. BONDS is also progressing well in Lebanon.

除中國以外，全球捲菸銷量最大的市場是印度尼西亞，其中雅加達的捲菸銷售份額較去年同期成長2.5個百分點，達到7.5%。我們的全口味加熱不燃燒技術 BONDS 的試點推出取得了良好的效果，該技術是根據當地丁香煙的口味偏好量身定制的，我們最近開始在更大範圍內推廣該技術。黎巴嫩的債券發行也進展順利。

Turning to combustibles, our business delivered robust organic net revenue growth of 2.0% in Q2 and plus 2.9% for H1, with Marlboro reaching a post-spin category share high of 10.7% in Q2. Strong Q2 pricing of plus 7.2% included notable contributions from Indonesia, Germany and Italy, yielding plus 7.7% in H1 overall. While we continue to expect a moderation in H2 pricing due to timing and comparison dynamics, we now forecast plus 6% to plus 7% for the full year.

談到可燃物，我們的業務在第二季度實現了強勁的有機淨收入增長 2.0%，在上半年增長 2.9%，其中萬寶路在第二季度的旋轉後類別份額達到了 10.7% 的高點。第二季價格上漲 7.2%，其中印尼、德國和義大利的貢獻顯著，上半年整體殖利率上漲 7.7%。雖然我們仍然預計下半年價格會因時間和比較動態而放緩，但我們現在預測全年價格將上漲 6% 至 7%。

Our strategy is to take pricing actions to optimize the financial contribution to the business over time, which can naturally impact volume and share performance on a quarterly basis.

我們的策略是採取定價行動來優化長期對業務的財務貢獻，這自然會影響季度銷售和份額表現。

Our combustible business is resilient and the combination of pricing, category leadership and ongoing efficiencies drove very good gross profit growth, as covered earlier. This performance is in line with our objective of maximizing value over time and supporting the growth of our smoke-free business.

我們的可燃業務具有彈性，定價、品類領導地位和持續效率的結合推動了非常好的毛利成長，如前所述。這一表現符合我們隨著時間的推移實現價值最大化並支持無菸業務成長的目標。

This brings me to our revised outlook for a remarkable 2025, where we are raising our adjusted diluted EPS forecast for the year in both currency-neutral and dollar terms. As expected, we delivered a strong H1 organic performance compared to our target ranges for the full year.

這讓我想到了我們對 2025 年非凡業績的修訂展望，我們將上調今年按貨幣中性和美元計算的調整後稀釋每股收益預測。正如預期的那樣，與全年目標範圍相比，我們實現了強勁的 H1 有機業績。

While combustible volume dynamics and the phasing of comparisons and costs are less favorable in H2, our fundamental outlook remains very good. We expect continued strong momentum on both IQOS and ZYN, alongside robust pricing and meaningful margin improvement. We expect further double-digit HTU adjusted IMS progression, with growth skewed to the fourth quarter given a strong comparison in Q3.

儘管下半年可燃物體積動態以及比較和成本的階段性不太有利，但我們的基本前景仍然非常好。我們預計 IQOS 和 ZYN 將繼續保持強勁勢頭，同時保持穩健的定價和顯著的利潤率提升。我們預計 HTU 調整後的 IMS 將進一步實現兩位數成長，鑑於第三季的強勁表現，成長將偏向第四季。

We forecast Q3 HTU shipments of 38.5 billion, 39.5 billion and dynamic growth in adjusted diluted EPS to $2.08 to $2.13, including strong investments and a favorable currency variance of $0.05, at prevailing rates.

我們預測第三季 HTU 出貨量將達到 385 億、395 億，調整後稀釋每股盈餘將動態成長至 2.08 美元至 2.13 美元，其中包括強勁的投資和 0.05 美元的有利貨幣差異（以現行匯率計算）。

For the full-year, we continue to expect very strong organic net revenue growth in the range of plus 6% to plus 8%. Following excellent H1 top-line dynamism and margin progression, we are raising our forecast range for organic operating income growth to plus 11% to plus 12.5%.

對於全年而言，我們繼續預期有機淨收入將強勁成長，增幅將在 6% 至 8% 之間。由於上半年營收表現強勁且利潤率不斷提高，我們將有機營業收入成長預測範圍上調至 11% 至 12.5%。

We are also raising our currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth to plus 11.5% to plus 13.5%. This includes a slightly improved effective corporate tax rate of approximately 22% to 23%, based on the latest assessment of tax dynamics and market mix. We are still reviewing the implications of the OBBB Act US tax reform.

我們也將貨幣中性調整後的稀釋每股盈餘成長率提高至 11.5% 至 13.5%。根據對稅收動態和市場結構的最新評估，這包括略微提高的有效企業稅率，約為 22% 至 23%。我們仍在審查 OBBB 法案美國稅改的影響。

In dollar terms, we expect adjusted diluted EPS growth of plus 13% to plus 15%. This includes an estimated $0.10 favorable currency impact at prevailing exchange rates, with favorable earnings translation from a broadly weaker dollar partly offset by transactional impacts due to currency volatility, which I covered earlier.

以美元計算，我們預計調整後的稀釋每股盈餘將成長 13% 至 15%。這包括以現行匯率估計的 0.10 美元的有利貨幣影響，美元普遍走弱帶來的有利收益轉換被我之前提到的貨幣波動造成的交易影響部分抵消。

Given our expectations for a strong full-year profit delivery and cash conversion, we are raising our forecast for operating cashflow to around $11.5 billion, at prevailing exchange rates and subject to year-end working capital requirements. We project capital expenditures slightly above our prior forecast at around $1.6 billion, primarily due to further international ZYN capacity investments, with CapEx spend almost entirely focused on supporting the growth of smoke-free.

鑑於我們對全年利潤和現金轉換強勁的預期，我們將營運現金流預測上調至約 115 億美元（按現行匯率計算，並受年底營運資金需求影響）。我們預計資本支出將略高於先前的預測，約為 16 億美元，這主要是由於進一步的國際 ZYN 產能投資，而資本支出幾乎全部集中在支持無菸事業的發展上。

With regard to our balance sheet, we continue to target further deleveraging in 2025, placing us on track for our target ratio of around 2 times by the end of 2026. As mentioned last quarter, we are a global company with broadly diversified production and a worldwide supplier network, including an established US manufacturing base, and we believe we are well-positioned to mitigate potential supply chain challenges.

就我們的資產負債表而言，我們繼續以 2025 年進一步去槓桿為目標，力爭在 2026 年底實現 2 倍左右的目標比率。正如上個季度所提到的，我們是一家全球性公司，擁有廣泛多樣化的生產和全球供應商網絡，包括成熟的美國製造基地，我們相信我們有能力緩解潛在的供應鏈挑戰。

While the situation is volatile, we do not currently anticipate a material impact on our business from recently introduced or discussed tariffs.

儘管情況不穩定，但我們目前預計最近推出或討論的關稅不會對我們的業務產生重大影響。

Our financial growth model is driving a continuous improvement in the quality of our business, with smoke-free accretion and combustible resilience driving considerable bottom-line growth. We are well on track to meet or exceed our three year CAGR targets, demonstrating our ability to deliver what we believe to be best-in-class CPG growth.

我們的財務成長模式正在推動我們業務品質的持續改善，無菸累積和可燃彈性推動可觀的底線成長。我們預計將達到或超過三年複合年增長率目標，證明我們有能力實現我們認為一流的 CPG 成長。

Adjusted diluted EPS growth in dollar terms is a key objective, and we are pleased to see this delivered in H1, as well as in our outlook for the year.

以美元計算的調整後稀釋每股盈餘成長是一個關鍵目標，我們很高興看到這一目標在上半年以及全年展望中得以實現。

I will now conclude today’s presentation with some closing remarks. We delivered an exceptional first half of the year, placing us well on track for another year of strong performance. Our smoke-free growth is increasingly profitable, as IQOS, ZYN and VEEV gain scale and drive synergies at the consumer and commercial level.

現在，我將以一些結束語來結束今天的演講。我們上半年取得了出色的成績，為下一年的強勁表現奠定了良好的基礎。隨著 IQOS、ZYN 和 VEEV 規模不斷擴大並在消費者和商業層面產生協同效應，我們的無菸成長利潤日益增加。

Our best-in-class financial performance is bolstered by underlying strength across all categories, including the resilience of our combustibles business, in addition to our proactive measures on pricing and cost efficiencies. This drives our confidence in strong and sustainable adjusted diluted EPS growth in both currency-neutral and dollar terms.

我們一流的財務表現得益於所有類別的潛在實力，包括我們可燃物業務的彈性，以及我們在定價和成本效率方面的主動措施。這增強了我們對強勁且可持續的調整後稀釋每股盈餘成長（無論以貨幣中性和美元計算）的信心。

Finally, we remain a highly cash-generative business with an unwavering commitment to our progressive dividend policy. We look forward to further rewarding our shareholders as our transformation delivers continued growth.

最後，我們仍然是一家現金流充沛的企業，並堅定不移地致力於推行漸進式股利政策。隨著我們的轉型帶來持續成長，我們期待進一步回報我們的股東。

Thank you. We are now happy to answer your questions.

謝謝。我們現在很高興回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Gaurav Jain, Barclays.

（操作員指示）巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain。

A few questions from me. One is on ZYN. So you are saying that restock was less than what you had expected. So how should one read it that your expectations for future growth they were higher earlier and now they are lower and not only us but the market expectations were higher and now they are lower, and that's why the need for restock is lower?

我有幾個問題。一個是在ZYN上。所以您是說補貨量比您預期的少。那麼，應該如何理解您對未來成長的預期，以前它們較高，現在它們較低；不僅我們，而且市場預期以前也較高，現在它們較低，因此補貨需求較低？

And in that context, if I look at your then volume guide, if I say 3Q is flat versus 2Q. And in 4Q, you need to do 219 million to 259 million cans for that 800 million to 840 million range, which will imply almost 15% to 36% growth on a Q-o-Q basis. And I remember from covering Swedish Match a few years ago that Q4 actually used to have lesser shipping days for them, so they didn't really used to grow Q4 over Q3. Can you just help me understand all the moving parts from ZYN?

在這種情況下，如果我看一下您的交易量指南，如果我說第三季與第二季持平。而在第四季度，你需要生產 2.19 億至 2.59 億罐才能達到 8 億至 8.4 億罐的目標，這意味著環比增長接近 15% 至 36%。我記得幾年前報道瑞典火柴公司時，第四季度的發貨天數實際上較少，因此第四季度的增長實際上並沒有超過第三季度。你能幫我了解 ZYN 的所有活動部件嗎？

Sure, Gaurav, with great pleasure. So first of all, on the impact of the restocking, well, let's be a bit humble here. We talk about a brand that we're targeting to deliver for the year, 800 million to 840 million can. There are several weeks of inventory between wholesaler, distributor and the retailers. I'm not able to tell you a precise number is probably anywhere between, let's say, six to seven weeks altogether.

當然，Gaurav，非常樂意。因此，首先，關於補貨的影響，讓我們稍微謙虛一下。我們談論的是我們今年的目標是銷售 8 億到 8.4 億罐的品牌。批發商、分銷商和零售商之間有數週的庫存。我無法告訴你一個精確的數字，可能總共是六到七週。

And here, we are talking when you say it's a bit lower. I mean it's clear that, for instance, at the retailer level, we had no precise idea of the level of inventory. So we are a bit below our expectation. If I was to give a number, it's probably maybe 10 million, 20 million can below. Frankly, I'm not able to be more specific than that.

現在，當您說它有點低時，我們正在談論。我的意思是，很明顯，例如，在零售商層面，我們對庫存水準沒有精確的了解。因此，我們的業績略低於預期。如果我要給出一個數字，那可能是 1000 萬，甚至 2000 萬以下。坦白說，我無法說得更具體。

We are talking about a few days of sales, so it's really small. So that's really what we're talking about. And again, we've been facing this significant out-of-stock situation. We had the exercise of reloading the good news that it's behind us. We made a few assumptions on what it would mean in terms of restocking.

我們談論的是幾天的銷售額，所以數量真的很小。這就是我們真正在談論的內容。我們再次面臨嚴重缺貨的情況。我們重新加載了好消息，這一切都已經過去了。我們對補貨的意義做了一些假設。

Okay, we've been probably a bit higher versus what was really needed, but this is it. So I don't think there is anything else to be read there. And at the end of the day, I think we should focus on what is really important, which is a great dynamism that ZYN is facing now that there is full availability. Indeed, June was growing 36% in terms of consumer offtake according to Nielsen.

好吧，我們可能比實際需要的要高一點，但就是這樣。所以我認為那裡沒有什麼可讀的了。最後，我認為我們應該專注於真正重要的事情，那就是 ZYN 現在面臨的巨大活力，因為它已經完全可用。事實上，根據尼爾森的數據，6 月消費者購買量成長了 36%。

If I look at the first two weeks of July, we are north of 37%. I think the market is a bit above 39%. So basically, we are growing now in line with the market. So it just shows that we have absolutely resumed a strong momentum. And that, of course, bodes very well for the future as at the same time, as I mentioned, we are really restarting promotional advertising, commercial activity in a 360-degree matters, I would say. So that's really what I think is important.

如果我看一下七月的前兩週，我們的成長率已經超過了 37%。我認為市場略高於39%。所以基本上，我們現在是依照市場同步成長的。這表明我們已經完全恢復了強勁勢頭。當然，這對未來來說是一個非常好的預兆，因為同時，正如我所提到的，我們正在真正重啟促銷廣告和全方位的商業活動。所以我認為這確實很重要。

On the sequence, so in my remarks, I noted the fact that there may be some adjustments as people have been maybe buying ZYN in a kind of mindset of shortages. And we think there could be some adjustment on the volume here and there in Q3, so that can impact the Q3 performance. And then we said there is a step-up in Q4.

在這個序列上，在我的評論中，我注意到可能會有一些調整，因為人們可能在某種短缺心態下購買 ZYN。我們認為第三季的交易量可能會進行一些調整，影響第三季的業績。然後我們說第四季會有一個提升。

At the end of the day, we are now in a dynamic where our quarter-on-quarter growing nicely. I think the growth in the second quarter, 12% versus Q1 was, by far, the biggest sequential growth quarter-on-quarter since the first quarter of 2024. So we are absolutely back to renewed dynamism. And we are growing fast year-on-year, and that's what is driving our expectation for volume growth in the next month.

最終，我們目前處於一個季度環比良好成長的動態之中。我認為第二季的增幅（相對於第一季而言為 12%）是自 2024 年第一季以來最大的環比成長。因此，我們絕對恢復了新的活力。而且我們的年成長很快，這也是我們對下個月銷售成長的預期的推動因素。

Sure. And my second question is just on EU TPD, like you referenced a few comments, but could you help us understand in more detail like what exactly are the proposals in terms of different tax rates on NGP products and there is any update on EU TPD as well?

當然。我的第二個問題是關於歐盟 TPD 的，就像您提到的幾條評論一樣，但是您能否幫助我們更詳細地了解，例如關於 NGP 產品不同稅率的具體提議是什麼，以及歐盟 TPD 有任何更新嗎？

Gaurav, I'm not going to elaborate on the initial proposal. We are at the beginning of a long process. Last time, it was 2010, 2011, it took two years, I think, from the beginning to the end. A lot of discussion will happen. I reminded everybody that it requires unanimity from the parties.

Gaurav，我不會詳細說明最初的提議。我們正處於一個漫長進程的開始。上次是2010年、2011年，從開始到結束，我想花了兩年的時間。將會有很多討論。我提醒大家，這需要各方一致同意。

So I'm not going to comment on things until there is more clarity on what's going to happen. The process has started, there will be several steps. As I said last time, it took almost two years. And of course, when we have more clarity on what is really likely to happen, then, of course, at that moment, we'll comment the implication.

因此，在事情有更清晰的進展之前，我不會對此發表評論。這個過程已經開始，將有幾個步驟。正如我上次所說，這花了將近兩年的時間。當然，當我們更清楚真正可能發生的事情時，我們當然會在那一刻對其含義進行評論。

In my remarks, I noted the 2 points which are important for us for the time being. One is the fact that the initial proposal is indeed coming with differentiation between smoke-free and combustible when it comes to minimum taxation. So that's an important element.

我在發言中指出了目前對我們而言重要的兩點。一是，初步提案在最低稅率方面確實對無菸和可燃進行了區分。這是一個重要因素。

And the second that as an element which we hope will be improved. Obviously, there is nothing when it comes to illicit, which is, I think, a real question for the European Union to tackle. That's what we can say for the time being.

第二，我們希望這一點能得到改善。顯然，當涉及非法問題時，就沒有什麼可說的了，我認為這是歐盟真正需要解決的問題。暫時就這麼說吧。

Eric Serotta, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Eric Serotta。

A couple of questions. First, in terms of IQOS ILUMA US approval timing, I think you said you mentioned launch once authorized by the FDA, are you guys still sticking to your expectation of a second half authorization, realizing it's not something you have control over?

有幾個問題。首先，關於 IQOS ILUMA 美國批准時間，我想您說過一旦獲得 FDA 授權就會推出，你們是否仍然堅持對下半年授權的預期，意識到這不是你們可以控制的事情？

And then second, when you look at international IQOS, can you talk a bit about some of the drivers of the reacceleration in IMS and sort of the sustainability for the second half of the year?

其次，當您看國際 IQOS 時，您能否談談 IMS 重新加速的一些驅動因素以及今年下半年的可持續性？

Sure, Eric. So first, on the US, so I mean, we don't have anything new to report on the potential PMTA for IQOS ILUMA. I think everybody can see that FDA is resuming activity on PMTA, and that's good news. As far as we are concerned, and this is public information, there is now -- for the renewal of the MRTP on IQOS three, there is a tobacco product scientific advisory committee that has been scheduled. They have also opened a docket for ZYN MRTP. So a number of things are happening.

當然，埃里克。首先，關於美國，我的意思是，我們沒有任何關於 IQOS ILUMA 潛在 PMTA 的新消息可以報告。我想每個人都可以看到 FDA 正在恢復 PMTA 活動，這是個好消息。就我們而言，這是公開訊息，現在——為了更新 IQOS 3 的 MRTP，已經安排了一個菸草產品科學諮詢委員會。他們還為 ZYN MRTP 開設了一個檔案。因此，許多事情正在發生。

And that's what we know for the time being. So I have nothing new to report on the PMTA for IQOS ILUMA. We are still hoping for an approval in H2. But we are also, at the same time, acknowledging the fact that the agenda and the workload for the FDA is very heavy. And therefore, it is clear that we don't have a certainty that we will get this PMTA in '25 and that could move, of course, to 2026.

這就是我們目前所知道的情況。因此，關於 IQOS ILUMA 的 PMTA，我沒有什麼新消息可以報告。我們仍然希望在下半年獲得批准。但同時，我們也承認 FDA 的日程和工作量非常繁重。因此，很明顯我們無法確定我們能否在 2025 年獲得這項 PMTA，當然，這可能會推遲到 2026 年。

On the second question on the reason for the acceleration of IQOS. I mentioned, I think, many of them. I think it's really Europe where you have now the effect of the characterizing flavor ban that are waning and a number of markets reaccelerating. Some markets you're doing really very strong performance. I mentioned some of them like Spain, Germany, Romania, Bulgaria. It's great to see Italy reaccelerating as well. So I would say, momentum is rebuilding.

關於第二個問題，IQOS加速的原因。我想我已經提到過其中的很多。我認為，在歐洲，特色香料禁令的影響正在減弱，許多市場正在重新加速發展。在某些市場，你們的表現確實非常強勁。我提到了其中一些國家，例如西班牙、德國、羅馬尼亞、保加利亞。很高興看到義大利經濟也重新加速。所以我想說，勢頭正在重建。

Now there will be some phasing last year on the performance in Europe, but I think we are expecting a nice performance overall for H2. And outside Europe, we expect continued very nice performance from Japan and have been elaborating on the trend there, where we continue to do very well.

現在，歐洲的表現將與去年有所差異，但我認為我們預計下半年整體表現會不錯。在歐洲以外，我們預計日本將繼續表現良好，並且一直在詳細闡述日本的趨勢，我們在日本繼續表現良好。

And there are all these new growth markets that are super exciting. And of course, Global Travel Retail is one of them. But Indonesia, many countries in the Gulf region, Mexico, Philippines, I mean, these are plenty of markets where we see very nice growth trajectory and growth potential for IQOS. And in this new growth market, the momentum, I would say, is progressively building up.

所有這些新興成長市場都令人興奮不已。當然，全球旅遊零售就是其中之一。但印尼、海灣地區的許多國家、墨西哥、菲律賓，這些都是我們看到 IQOS 非常好的成長軌跡和成長潛力的市場。我想說，在這個新興成長市場中，發展動能正逐漸增強。

Great. And just one follow-up on combustibles. Your volumes down 1.5% or I should say only 1.5% despite the headwinds you called out of Turkey and Indonesia. Was that actually a little bit better than you expected since you guys have been pretty upfront really since last year that you expect combustible volumes to resume their declines in 2025?

偉大的。僅對可燃物進行一次後續跟進。儘管您提到土耳其和印尼存在逆風，但您的交易量下降了 1.5%，或者我應該說只下降了 1.5%。這其實比你們預期的要好一點嗎？因為你們從去年開始就非常坦率地表示，預計可燃物數量將在 2025 年恢復下降？

So you're right. Globally today, when we say that for the year, we are targeting to be around minus 2% in terms of shipments. That's something that I had the opportunity to say in previous instances very clearly, the fact that we believe we are going to be back to what we think is a long-term trend for the combustible business, which is a low single-digit decrease. I'm not able to specifically say exactly which kind of low single digit, but that is a trend for sure, that we expect in the future.

所以你是對的。今天，我們在全球範圍內設定的全年出貨量目標是下降 2% 左右。我以前曾非常清楚地說過這一點，我們相信我們將回到我們認為的可燃業務的長期趨勢，即低個位數的下降。我無法具體說出具體是哪種低個位數，但這肯定是我們預期的未來趨勢。

Yes, of course, a country where there is ban on smoke-free can have some impact on this low single-digit decline, but nevertheless, that is the trend. That's what we have seen in Q2. Largely in line with our expectation, and that's what we expect for H2 with this impact of Turkey that is a kind of transitional thing that is going to impact H2 more specifically. But otherwise, I think we are progressively going back to what we described as a normal long-term trend for combustible.

是的，當然，一個禁止無菸的國家可能會對這種低個位數的下降產生一些影響，但無論如何，這是趨勢。這就是我們在第二季度看到的情況。基本上符合我們的預期，這也是我們對 H2 的預期，土耳其的影響是一種過渡性因素，將更具體地影響 H2。但除此之外，我認為我們正在逐步回到我們所描述的可燃物的正常長期趨勢。

Matt Smith, Stifel.

馬特史密斯（Matt Smith），Stifel。

Emmanuel, I wanted to ask about the increase in the underlying guidance. The constant currency range is up about 1 point from the mid -- from the previous midpoint and that reflects the stronger second quarter and some favorability on the tax rate.

伊曼紐爾，我想問一下有關基本指導增加的情況。恆定貨幣區間比中點高出約 1 個點——比之前的中點高出約 1 個點，這反映了第二季表現更強勁以及對稅率的一些有利因素。

Is it fair to say the second half is more or less in line with your previous expectations? And can you provide a little more detail on the considerations in the second half. You called out phasing and comparisons and costs and the impact on margins from those and the timing of those when they become lapped in the base?

下半年的情況是否與您先前的預期大致相符？您能否提供更多關於下半部考慮的細節？您提到了分階段、比較和成本以及這些對利潤率的影響以及當它們在基礎上重疊時的時間嗎？

Yes. I think when you look at -- there are, of course, a number of elements that can distort the vision quarter-on-quarter H2 versus H1. What we wanted to ensure that everybody understands is that, in fact, the momentum in Q2 on smoke-free is, in fact, even better than in Q1. And Q1 was already very good. But in fact, in Q2, we've seen an acceleration of the IQOS in market sales.

是的。我認為，當你觀察時——當然，有許多因素可能會扭曲上半年與下半年的環比成長前景。我們希望確保每個人都明白，事實上，第二季無菸勢頭甚至比第一季更好。而且 Q1 已經非常好了。但事實上，在第二季度，我們看到了IQOS在市場銷售上的加速成長。

And we are back to a nice double-digit growth, very nice and very powerful resolution of ZYN the US Of course, elsewhere ZYN and VEEV are growing very fast. But Q2, in fact, is a very nice acceleration on our smoke-free business and this is absolutely visible in our numbers.

我們又回到了兩位數的成長，非常好，美國 ZYN 的解決方案非常強大，當然，其他地方的 ZYN 和 VEEV 成長也非常快。但事實上，第二季我們的無菸業務取得了非常好的加速，這在我們的數據中是絕對可見的。

When we look at H2, in fact, we expect the continuation of this very strong momentum that we've seen in H2 on smoke-free. So we expect IQOS to continue to grow double digit in terms of adjusted IMS. We expect now that we have availability, which is no longer an issue for ZYN in the US.

事實上，當我們展望下半年時，我們預計無菸化方面強勁勢頭將持續下去。因此，我們預計 IQOS 調整後的 IMS 將持續達到兩位數成長。我們預計現在我們有可用性，這對美國的 ZYN 來說不再是問題。

We expect the continuation of this very strong acceleration of ZYN the US. Again, I reported 37% growth for the first two weeks of July. So H2 is starting on a good note for ZYN in the US. So this momentum is unchanged, and we expect it to remain very strong.

我們預計 ZYN 在美國將持續保持強勁成長。我再次報告了 7 月前兩週的 37% 成長率。因此，H2 對於 ZYN 在美國來說是一個好的開始。因此，這種勢頭沒有改變，我們預計它將保持強勁。

Certainly, what is going to be less favorable is the trend on combustible. We were almost flat, minus 0.3% in volume in H1, and we expect 3% to 4% decline have been explaining the driver for that. Despite that, we expect a growth on gross profit for combustible, but nevertheless, at a lower level, of course, than in H1. So this is one of the reasons for the differentiated performance in H2 versus H1 for what we can expect.

當然，可燃物的趨勢將不那麼有利。我們的銷量幾乎持平，上半年銷量下降了 0.3%，我們預計 3% 至 4% 的降幅可以解釋這一現象的原因。儘管如此，我們預計可燃物的毛利將會成長，但當然，增幅會低於上半年。因此，這就是我們預期下半年與上半年表現差異的原因之一。

And then you have a number of phasing element on smoke-free, which have nothing to do with performance but which are due to basis of comparison or a number of one-off events. If I look at IQOS, there was this 1 billion stick shipment in Q1 that we're going to compensate in Q4 and of course, that is favoring H1 and penalizing H2.

然後，您會在無菸方面發現許多階段性因素，這些因素與表現無關，而是基於比較的基礎或一些一次性事件。以 IQOS 為例，第一季的出貨量為 10 億支，而我們將在第四季彌補這一缺口，當然，這對上半年有利，對下半年不利。

We had super favorable comps in H1 because of accelerated sales of device last year that has been growing profit and margin. We're not going to have that in the second part of the year. So that's another element. And then you have the ZYN restocking that has been benefiting H1. And of course, will not be benefiting H2. But I think it's really -- that's really what is behind the guidance. And I think if you take all the elements I've just been sharing, you have the right understanding of the dynamic. I hope this is helpful.

由於去年設備銷售加速，利潤和利潤率不斷增長，我們在上半年的業績表現非常出色。今年下半年我們不會有這種情況。這是另一個因素。然後你會看到 ZYN 補貨，這對 H1 有利。當然，這對 H2 來說也沒什麼好處。但我認為這確實——這確實是指導背後的原因。我認為，如果您吸收了我剛才分享的所有要素，您就會對這種動態有正確的理解。我希望這會有所幫助。

Very helpful. And as a follow-up, pricing for heated tobacco units was up, I think, low single digits again in the quarter. You're about a year into realizing a nice contribution from pricing in that business. In the markets where you are taking pricing, how is that impacting volume in new user acquisition relative to your expectations? And has that changed the way you think about the pricing potential in the HTU business over time? And I'll leave it there.

非常有幫助。接下來，我認為，加熱菸草裝置的價格在本季再次上漲了個位數。大約一年後，您便能從該業務的定價中實現不錯的貢獻。在您所定價的市場中，相對於您的預期，這對新用戶獲取量有何影響？這是否改變了您對 HTU 業務定價潛力的看法？我就把它留在那裡。

Yes. Sure, Matt. I think we're really trying to make sure we don't penalize volume with price increase when it comes to IQOS and ZYN because we described how positive the volume growth is because we have higher revenue per unit. We have higher margins. So the name of the game is, of course, to absolutely optimize the volume.

是的。當然，馬特。我認為我們確實在努力確保 IQOS 和 ZYN 的價格上漲不會損害銷售量，因為我們描述了銷售成長的正面意義，因為我們的單位收入更高。我們的利潤率更高。因此，遊戲的名稱當然是絕對優化音量。

But there is, obviously, as we are growing the franchise of the brand, the strength of the brand, there is opportunity to increase price without impacting the volume. And I think that is the right balance we're looking for, which is we increase volume, but we certainly don't want to change trajectory on volume because of that. So price, yes, but provided it does not impact in a meaningful manner, the volume trajectory. That is the strategy, and that is what we will continue to do.

但顯然，隨著我們品牌特許經營權和品牌實力的不斷增長，我們有機會在不影響銷售的情況下提高價格。我認為這是我們尋求的正確平衡，即我們增加銷量，但我們當然不想因此改變銷量軌跡。所以價格是的，但前提是它不會對銷售軌跡產生重大影響。這就是我們的策略，我們將繼續這樣做。

Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。

I had a few follow-up questions on ZYN. Based on everything you discussed and what you're seeing in the market, should we assume the lower end of your full year shipment guidance ranges more realistic? I guess I'm trying to understand if the high end is even possible in your mind. And then can you update us on your capacity and where it stands today and when it will increase?

我對 ZYN 有幾個後續問題。根據您討論的所有內容以及您在市場上看到的情況，我們是否應該假設您全年出貨量指導範圍的下限更為現實？我想我正在嘗試了解在您的心中高端是否可行。然後您能否向我們介紹一下您的產能以及目前的狀況以及何時會增加？

Sure. So of course, if we give this bracket because we believe that we can finish the year within the -- at every point of the bracket, we give the 800 million to 840 million. Clearly, the fact that this 10 million to 20 million lower restocking than what maybe we thought, I mean, that is having an impact.

當然。因此，當然，如果我們給出這個範圍，因為我們相信我們可以在範圍內完成今年的目標 - 在範圍的每個點，我們給出 8 億到 8.4 億。顯然，補貨量比我們想像的少了 1000 萬到 2000 萬，這確實產生了影響。

But at the end of the day, you can see that the restart of IQOS can be very powerful. I mean 36%, 37%. We are restarting commercial activity, advertising. So we don't know what's going to be the growth profile for H2. So that's why we are still comfortable with the 800 million to 840 million can bracket.

但最終你還是可以看出IQOS的重啟功能是可以非常強大的。我的意思是36%、37%。我們正在重啟商業活動和廣告。所以我們不知道下半年的成長情況會是怎樣。這就是為什麼我們仍然對 8 億至 8.4 億罐的產量範圍感到滿意。

On the capacity, we can say that today, we have been building a comfortable capacity to face all kind of very dynamic growth scenario for the future, and therefore, we are comfortable for the coming quarters.

在產能方面，我們可以說，今天，我們已經建立了舒適的產能，以應對未來各種非常動態的成長情景，因此，我們對未來幾個季度感到放心。

Okay. And then maybe just another follow-up because you just touched on something that I also wanted to ask, which is now that you're, I guess, essentially back in the stock or you can ship to demand, how does that change your strategy as it relates to your pricing, promotions, are you going to, I guess, get a little bit more aggressive in an attempt to possibly grow in faster and take more market share? Just how are you thinking about that?

好的。然後也許只是另一個後續問題，因為您剛剛提到了我也想問的一個問題，那就是現在您基本上已經恢復了庫存，或者您可以根據需求發貨，這會如何改變您的定價、促銷策略？我猜，您是否會採取更積極的態度，試圖更快地發展並佔據更多的市場份額？您對此有何看法？

Yes, of course, Bonnie. So you're right. As I said, we go for putting all levers to maximize the growth of ZYN and all that in a very different environment because now we have full availability. So during many months, many quarters, we've been refraining ourselves from acquiring new users because we knew that we were not really able to supply the need for new users.

是的，當然，邦妮。所以你是對的。正如我所說，我們致力於利用一切手段來最大化 ZYN 的成長，並且所有這些都在一個非常不同的環境中進行，因為現在我們擁有完全的可用性。因此，在許多個月、許多個季度裡，我們一直在抑制自己獲取新用戶，因為我們知道我們無法真正滿足新用戶的需求。

So that means limited activity I would say across the board, so in terms of pricing, in terms of marketing activities. So we're going to restart normal activity, and that will certainly include more promotion. We have a much lower level of promotion than any of the brand, and I think it probably will stay like that. But it doesn't mean that we cannot increase the level of promotion as well.

所以，我認為這意味著全方位的活動受限，包括定價方面、行銷活動方面。因此，我們將重新開始正常活動，這肯定會包括更多的促銷。我們的促銷力度比任何品牌都要低得多，而且我認為這種情況可能會持續下去。但這並不代表我們不能提高推廣水準。

That will be certainly advertising and commercial activity on the point of sales where we need to step up now that the product is available and that will be the continuation of building the brand franchise and all this iconic element of the ZYN brand and the fine using campaign. So we're going to pull all levers to make sure that we give the best support to ZYN.

這肯定是銷售點上的廣告和商業活動，我們現在需要在產品上市後加強這些活動，這將繼續打造品牌特許經營權以及 ZYN 品牌的所有標誌性元素和精細使用活動。因此，我們將竭盡全力確保為 ZYN 提供最好的支援。

(Operator instructions) Faham Baig, UBS.

（操作員指示）Faham Baig，瑞銀。

To be honest, your answers have been very thorough. So I don't have many more. But I'll take two. I noticed in the second quarter, the gross margin gap between combustibles and smoke-free narrowed. And maybe smoke-free even gross margin slightly reduced to Q2 on Q1.

說實話，你的回答已經很透徹了。所以我沒有更多了。但我要兩個。我注意到在第二季度，可燃物和無菸物的毛利率差距縮小了。甚至無菸產品的毛利率也可能比第一季略微下降至第二季。

Maybe if you could expand on some of the dynamics around that and maybe what you expect for gross margin, the gross margin gap over the next couple of quarters?

也許您可以詳細說明相關的一些動態，以及您對毛利率的預期，以及未來幾季的毛利率差距？

And the second question is probably simple, but if you could please remind us your FX hedge rates for the year, both Euro, Japanese yen and any other currencies that you may hedge.

第二個問題可能很簡單，但請您提醒我們今年的外匯對沖利率，包括歐元、日圓以及您可能對沖的任何其他貨幣。

Yes, Faham. So on the gross margin evolution, so you are really looking after the [coma] because, in fact, we are both in Q1 and Q2 around 70% gross margin rate. So of course, the mix of ZYN or the importance of the device can have an impact. But globally, in line with what we said after Q1, we have a smoke-free business that is around, doesn't mean that it can be a bit below, but around 70% gross margin. And I would expect H2 not to be very materially different, okay?

是的，法哈姆。因此，就毛利率的演變而言，您確實在關注[昏迷]，因為事實上，我們在第一季和第二季的毛利率都在 70％ 左右。因此，ZYN 的混合或設備的重要性當然會產生影響。但在全球範圍內，正如我們在第一季之後所說的那樣，我們的無菸業務的毛利率在 70% 左右，但這並不意味著它的毛利率會略低一些，而是在 70% 左右。我希望 H2 不會有太大的實質差異，好嗎？

So I'm not saying it's going to be in a steady at 70%. But I think we are ballpark in this area where there is very nice gross margin rate for smoke-free higher than combustible. And you noted that the gap has been narrowing a bit. It's still significant, I mean, 4.5% for the full H1. And it's because CC has been improving a bit which is price and mix of the combustible sales in the quarter.

所以我並不是說它會穩定在 70%。但我認為我們在這個領域的毛利率是合理的，無菸菸草的毛利率比可燃菸草的毛利率要高。您注意到差距正在縮小一些。我的意思是，對於整個上半年來說，這個數字仍然很重要，為 4.5%。這是因為 CC 在本季的價格和可燃物銷售組合方面有所改善。

So when I look at the second part of the year, I think I would really insist on the fact that the improvement of margin on the smoke-free business was very important on H1 as we were facing easy comps because of a lot of ILUMA device sales last year as we were launching ILUMA i.

因此，當我展望今年下半年時，我認為我會堅持認為，無菸業務利潤率的提高對於上半年非常重要，因為去年我們推出 ILUMA i 時，ILUMA 設備銷量很大，因此我們面臨著輕鬆的競爭。

Fundamentally, this is not the case again in H2. So we don't have the same easy comps. And therefore, as I said, expect margin on smoke-free to stay high and expect, of course, the progress year-on-year to be reduced because we are facing higher margin last year on the smoke-free business.

從根本上來說，H2 不再是這種情況。所以我們沒有同樣簡單的比較。因此，正如我所說，預計無菸利潤率將保持在高位，當然，預計同比進展將會減少，因為去年我們在無菸業務上面臨的利潤率更高。

For combustible, I think we said that we have the ambition to increase the gross margin as well, and that is valid for H2. I'm not going to repeat on ForEx, first of all, because I have to admit, I haven't been looking at exactly the latest position. I've been giving it because after -- I think after Q1, we wanted to illustrate where we were in terms of ForEx hedging, but that's not something I intend to do each time to be clear.

對於可燃物，我認為我們說過我們也有提高毛利率的雄心，這對 H2 來說也是如此。首先，我不會重複有關外匯的事情，因為我必須承認，我並沒有關注最新的情況。我一直這樣做是因為——我認為在第一季之後，我們想要說明我們在外匯對沖方面的狀況，但這並不是我每次都打算做的事情。

Callum Elliott, Bernstein.

卡勒姆·艾利奧特，伯恩斯坦。

So, my first question is on VEEV, if that's okay. As for a number of years, I think as a company, you guys were quite reluctant to expand too much into the e-vapor space citing lower loyalty in that category and sort of the result in gross margins that came from that lower loyalty and we obviously heard a bit at your Europe event a month ago about this increasing emphasis on the three category approach and the sort of the synergies for all three categories when you sort of play in all three areas at the same time.

所以，我的第一個問題是關於 VEEV 的，可以嗎？多年來，我認為作為一家公司，你們一直不願意在電子煙領域擴張太多，因為這個類別的忠誠度較低，而且忠誠度較低會導致毛利率下降。我們在一個月前的歐洲活動上聽到了一些關於越來越重視三類方法以及當你同時在這三個領域開展業務時這三個類別之間的協同效應的說法。

I guess my question is, what's changed over the past year or two to drive this increasing three category approach? And in particular, I think you called out in the release the improving gross margin that you're seeing for vapor in particular. I wonder just anything -- I doubt you're going to quantify it for me, but anything sort of qualitative you can share about what that means?

我想我的問題是，過去一兩年發生了什麼變化，推動了這種三類方法的不斷增加？特別是，我認為您在新聞稿中提到了蒸汽產品的毛利率正在提高。我只是想知道任何事情——我懷疑您是否會為我量化它，但您能否分享任何關於這意味著什麼的定性資訊？

Sure, Callum. So yes, I guess it has been explained with a great deal of details during our European day. So I'm sure I'm not going to come with the same granularity. But my first comment will be to say be assured that we know what our priorities are. So our priority is, first and foremost, to grow IQOS, okay.

當然，Callum。是的，我想我們在歐洲日期間已經對此進行了詳細的解釋。所以我確信我不會採用同樣的細微差別。但我首先要說的是，請放心，我們知道我們的優先事項是什麼。因此，我們的首要任務是發展 IQOS。

This is the leading star brand. This is the one where we see the biggest potential. This is the one where we have the best profitability. Yes, ZYN could be one day at the same level. But of course, in terms of volume, it's really small today when it comes to most of the markets. So that's something for the future.

這是領先的明星品牌。這是我們看到的最大潛力。這是我們獲利能力最好的一個。是的，ZYN 有一天可能會達到同一水平。但當然，就交易量而言，如今對於大多數市場而言，交易量確實很小。所以這是未來的事。

You should see VEEV as an ailing brand to our portfolio. Yes, there is an interest in the multi-category play. I'm not going to repeat everything we presented in Europe, the fact that we -- some consumers clearly prefer to be only in one category and one brand. Other, and sometimes they are also smokers that you want to fully exit from smoking. They will only do that if they move to several smoke-free products.

您應該將 VEEV 視為我們產品組合中一個陷入困境的品牌。是的，對多類別比賽很感興趣。我不會重複我們在歐洲展示的所有內容，事實上，有些消費者顯然更喜歡只選擇單一類別和單一品牌。另外，有時他們也是吸菸者，您希望他們徹底戒菸。他們只有轉向使用幾種無菸產品才會這樣做。

And that's when we want to be able to offer several smoke-free category, and this is having a role to play in these circumstances. We are, of course, putting priority on VEEV where we believe we can develop a profitable business. And that's, of course, a very important condition to develop these.

那時我們希望能夠提供幾種無菸類別，這在這種情況下發揮作用。當然，我們優先考慮 VEEV，我們相信我們可以在此發展一項盈利業務。當然，這是發展這些的一個非常重要的條件。

I'm not going to exactly quantify the gross margin of these, but I can tell you that it improved by more than 10 percentage-points on the beginning of 2025. So it's profitability is improving very rapidly. And we believe that with the right loyalty, the VEEV business has a possibility to have a similar profitability as the combustible business. To get there, you need to have the right loyalty, but element that we see today on the market where we develop this, seem to show that we can generate this level of repurchase and loyalty.

我不會準確量化這些產品的毛利率，但我可以告訴你，到 2025 年初，毛利率提高了 10 個百分點以上。因此它的盈利能力正在迅速提高。我們相信，只要擁有正確的忠誠度，VEEV 業務就有可能獲得與可燃業務類似的獲利能力。為了實現這一目標，你需要擁有正確的忠誠度，但我們今天在開發這個產品的市場上看到的因素似乎表明，我們可以產生這種程度的回購和忠誠度。

So it's a bit short as a summary, but these are the conditions for us to develop VEEV. And that's what is behind our VEEV progression.

所以作為總結來說有點短，但這些是我們開發 VEEV 的條件。這就是我們 VEEV 進步背後的原因。

Just as a clarifying question. When you say a similar level of profitability to cigarettes, do you mean percentage margin or unit margin?

只是一個澄清的問題。當您說與香菸類似的獲利水準時，您是指百分比利潤還是單位利潤？

Well, in terms of gross margin on revenue.

嗯，就收入毛利率而言。

Gross margin as a percentage. Okay. Perfect. And then my second question is on ZYN, or of the intersection of Gaurav and Bonnie's two questions earlier where obviously, what you've spoken about is sort of a cadence of growth that in Q3 is something like 27% year-on-year growth but maybe a little bit impacted by -- it seems to be you're suggesting some destocking. And then the full year guide implying a reacceleration again in Q4.

毛利率以百分比表示。好的。完美的。然後我的第二個問題是關於 ZYN 的，或者是 Gaurav 和 Bonnie 之前兩個問題的交集，顯然，您談到的是一種增長節奏，第三季度同比增長 27% 左右，但可能受到一點影響——您似乎建議進行一些去庫存化。全年指南暗示第四季將再次加速。

And I guess my question is, I wonder how the commercial activities sort of flow into that reacceleration that you're forecasting for Q4? And how confident that you are that as you lean back into those activities, as you have done in the past, right, when you took over this business from Swedish Match, that drove an acceleration back then.

我的問題是，我想知道商業活動如何融入您預測的第四季的再加速中？您是否相信，當您重新投入這些活動時，就像您過去所做的那樣，當您從瑞典火柴公司接管這項業務時，這推動了當時的加速發展。

But as you lean into these activities again that you sort of stepped away from when you had the supply chain problems that you have this ability to redrive the acceleration, how confident are you in that? And does the cadence of these activities explain that sort of cadence between Q3 and Q4?

但是，當您再次傾向於這些活動時，您在遇到供應鏈問題時就放棄了這些活動，您有能力重新推動加速度，您對此有多大信心？這些活動的節奏是否解釋了 Q3 和 Q4 之間的節奏？

Look, I think I've been -- Callum already giving the answer I could give. So yes, indeed, that is pointing to a very dynamic second part of the year. Again, the level of growth in the consumer offtake in June and at the beginning of July is pointing to a direction that is broadly in line with this growth.

瞧，我想我已經——Callum 已經給出了我能給出的答案。是的，這確實預示著今年下半年將非常有活力。再次，6 月和 7 月初的消費成長水準指向與此成長大致一致的方向。

And it is at a point in time where we haven't yet as I said, fully restarted all the commercial marketing activities. So we are hopeful that this will provide further boost to the growth, but I don't have much to add at that stage. I think that the data are there on the table public and everybody can understand the objective that we have.

正如我所說，我們尚未完全重啟所有商業行銷活動。因此，我們希望這將進一步促進成長，但目前我還沒有太多要補充的。我認為數據已經公開，每個人都能理解我們的目標。

Maybe I can follow up then. Like how quickly can you turn these commercial activities back on? It seems clear that you were taken a bit by surprise with how quickly you were restocking. So how quickly can you turn it back on?

或許我可以跟進。例如，您多快可以恢復這些商業活動？顯然，你對補貨速度之快感到有點驚訝。那麼你多快可以將其重新打開？

Well, yes, it does not, of course, happen in a few weeks. It's gradual. It's not everything at the same time. So the team are very busy in the US today restarting gradually everything.

嗯，是的，當然這不會在幾週內發生。這是漸進的。這並不是同時發生的一切。因此，今天團隊在美國非常忙碌，逐步重啟一切。

But you're right, that is like reshaping an engine. And to get to full speed on the engine, it's going to take some time. I'm not going to elaborate further, of course, as you will understand but that's something that is going to happen gradually in the course of the third quarter.

但你說得對，這就像重塑引擎。要讓引擎達到全速，還需要一些時間。當然，正如你們所理解的，我不會進一步詳細說明，但這將在第三季度逐步發生。

Gerald Pascarelli, Needham & Company.

傑拉爾德·帕斯卡雷利（Gerald Pascarelli），Needham & Company。

Most of them have been answered, but I just -- I wanted to go back to currency. If you could just -- can you provide some color on exactly what transpired in the quarter? You didn't get the benefit that you have been guiding for in 2Q and that really is despite the fact that the dollar weakened further over the course of the quarter.

大多數問題都已得到解答，但我只是——我想回到貨幣問題。如果您可以的話—您能否詳細說明一下本季發生的事情？儘管美元在本季進一步走弱，但您並沒有獲得第二季所預期的收益。

So I think the expectation was that maybe in addition to an underlying EPS raise, we would have seen an even bigger benefit to your adjusted EPS just due to a more favorable outlook on currency. So not looking for detail on your exact hedges or anything like that, but maybe just some color or thoughts on how we should think about the currency tailwind in the event that we continue to see this dollar weaken over the back half of the year? Any color there would be great.

因此，我認為預期除了基本每股盈餘增加之外，由於貨幣前景更加有利，我們還會看到調整後每股盈餘獲得更大的收益。因此，我們並不是想了解您的具體對沖措施或類似情況的細節，而只是想了解一下，如果我們繼續看到美元在下半年走弱，我們應該如何看待貨幣順風？任何顏色都很棒。

Sure, Gerald. In fact, what probably people are not always capturing I think versus the $0.10 we're coming up with, we are around $0.04 versus consensus below what the consensus was expecting. I think it's largely the Swiss franc, both in the negative impact that it has because we have a strong exposure in terms of cost to Switzerland.

當然，傑拉爾德。事實上，我認為人們可能並不總是能理解我們提出的 0.10 美元，與普遍預期相比，我們比普遍預期低了 0.04 美元左右。我認為這主要是瑞士法郎，它產生了負面影響，因為我們在瑞士的成本方面有很大敞口。

As you all know, but also because the intercompany flows mean that when there is a lot of volatility and there has been a lot of surge in the Swiss franc versus other currency at the end of the period, that is generating some transactional losses. So that's a significant impact.

眾所周知，而且由於公司間流動意味著當存在很大波動並且期末瑞士法郎兌其他貨幣出現大幅飆升時，就會產生一些交易損失。所以這是一個重大的影響。

And actually, when I look at what is driving this $0.10 estimated impact at the prevailing rate. In fact, the Swiss franc is to a large extent offsetting the benefit we have on the Euro just for people to understand. So it's a very significant negative impact.

實際上，當我觀察是什麼導致了按現行利率預計產生 0.10 美元的影響時。事實上，瑞士法郎在很大程度上抵消了我們對歐元的利益，這只是人們所理解的。所以這是一個非常重大的負面影響。

Priya Ohri-Gupta, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Priya Ohri-Gupta。

Emmanuel, I was just wondering if you could walk us through the working capital piece on free cash flow. It looks like based on the numbers that might have been seasonally a bit weaker than what we normally see in the second quarter. Is that largely attributable to the IQOS dynamics or what else is going on there? And then should we expect most of that to reverse as we get through the back half of the year?

伊曼紐爾，我只是想知道您是否可以向我們介紹自由現金流中的營運資本部分。從數據來看，第二季的季節性表現可能比我們通常看到的情況弱一些。這主要歸因於 IQOS 的動態特性還是其他原因？那麼，我們是否應該預期，隨著今年下半年的到來，大部分情況都會逆轉？

Yes. So really, I think when you look at the end of H1 on the differences versus last year, I mean, indeed, the cash flow generation is lower. Most of it is the payment of duty that we made in Germany and the final payment of the Job Act in the US. I think that the accumulated impact is largely north of $1 billion and that is really the biggest impact.

是的。所以實際上，我認為當你查看上半年末與去年同期的差異時，你會發現，現金流產生確實較低。其中大部分是我們在德國繳納的關稅和在美國繳納的就業法案的最後款項。我認為累計影響力很大程度上超過了 10 億美元，這才是真正的最大影響。

Otherwise, yes, we may have had on a temporary basis, some inventory building, I mean, supply chain, of course, playing here and there, you may have some regulatory constraints. But I don't think that for the year in terms of working capital beyond the two elements I mentioned, you should expect anything special.

否則，是的，我們可能會暫時進行一些庫存建設，我的意思是，供應鏈當然會在這裡和那裡發揮作用，您可能會遇到一些監管限制。但我認為，就今年的營運資金而言，除了我提到的兩個因素之外，你不應該期待任何特別的事情。

Okay. That's helpful. And just one housekeeping item. What was your CapEx in the quarter?

好的。這很有幫助。僅此一件家務事。本季您的資本支出是多少？

I'm not sure we're disclosing it by quarter. So I'm not going to give you the number. I think we said $1.6 billion for the year, but we don't split that by quarter.

我不確定我們是否按季度披露。所以我不會告訴你這個數字。我想我們說過今年是 16 億美元，但我們不會按季度分配。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to James Bushnell for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。現在我想請詹姆斯布希內爾作最後發言。

Thank you. That concludes our call today. Thank you all for joining us. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact the Investor Relations team. Thank you again, and have a great day.

謝謝。今天的通話到此結束。感謝大家的參與。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係團隊。再次感謝您，祝您有個愉快的一天。

Thank you. Speak to you soon.

謝謝。很快和你通話。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。