帕卡 (PCAR) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我想介紹一下PACCAR投資者關係總監Ken Hastings先生。黑斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast.

早安.我們歡迎那些透過電話和網路廣播收聽的人。

My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Brice Poplawski, Vice President and Controller.

我叫肯‧黑斯廷斯 (Ken Hastings)，是 PACCAR 投資者關係總監。今天早上和我一起的還有執行長 Preston Feight； Harrie Schippers，總裁兼財務長；以及副總裁兼財務長 Brice Poplawski。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward looking and involve risks and uncertainties that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the Investor Relations page at paccar.com.

與先前的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有線上媒體成員都參與僅聽模式。今天提供的某些資訊具有前瞻性，涉及可能影響預期結果的風險和不確定性。如需了解更多信息，請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件以及 paccar.com 上的投資者關係頁面。

I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

現在我想介紹一下普雷斯頓費特。

Well, good morning. Harrie, Brice, Kent, and I will update you on our excellent second-quarter financial results and business highlights. I'd like to start by saying thank you to PACCAR's great employees who provide our customers with the best trucks and transportation solutions in the world. They are really an impressive group of people.

嗯，早安。哈利、布里斯、肯特和我將向您介紹我們出色的第二季財務業績和業務亮點的最新情況。首先，我要感謝 PACCAR 優秀的員工，他們為我們的客戶提供了世界上最好的卡車和運輸解決方案。他們確實是一群令人印象深刻的人。

PACCAR's excellent revenues of $8.8 billion and net income of $1.12 billion were due to the strong performance of truck and parts operations around the world. PACCAR Parts' second-quarter revenues increased to $1.7 billion. Parts pre-tax profits were $414 million with 30.3% gross margin. PACCAR Financial achieved good pre-tax income of $111 million. And truck, parts, and other gross margins were a very strong 18% in the second quarter.

PACCAR 88 億美元的出色收入和 11.2 億美元的淨利潤得益於全球卡車和零件業務的強勁表現。PACCAR Parts 第二季營收增至 17 億美元。零件稅前利潤為 4.14 億美元，毛利率為 30.3%。PACCAR Financial 取得了 1.11 億美元的良好稅前收入。第二季卡車、零件和其他毛利率高達 18%。

Looking at the US and Canadian truck market, the vocational segment, where Peterbilt and Kenworth are the market leaders, remain strong with continued infrastructure investments. The less-than-truckload market is also performing well while being offset by a truckload segment where rates remain soft.

縱觀美國和加拿大卡車市場，以 Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 為市場領導者的職業卡車市場因持續的基礎設施投資而保持強勁。零擔市場也表現良好，但被運價依然疲軟的整車市場所抵銷。

Kenworth and Peterbilt's first-half share grew significantly to 31.5%, up from 27.7% in the same period last year. We estimate this year's US and Canadian Class 8 market to be in a range of 240,000 to 280,000 trucks.

Kenworth和Peterbilt上半年的市佔率大幅成長至31.5%，高於去年同期的27.7%。我們估計今年美國和加拿大的 8 級卡車市場規模為 24 萬至 28 萬輛。

Demand for medium-duty trucks continues to be strong. Kenworth and Peterbilt have increased their medium-duty market share in the first six months this year to 17.3%, compared to 12.8% in the same period last year.

對中型卡車的需求持續強勁。今年前六個月，肯沃斯和彼得比爾特的中型市佔率已增至 17.3%，去年同期為 12.8%。

In Europe, economies in the truck market are softer this year. DAF's premium new trucks provide customers with the latest technology and the best operating efficiency. We project the 2024 European above 16-ton market to be in a range of 260,000 to 300,000 trucks.

在歐洲，今年卡車市場的經濟疲軟。DAF 的優質新型卡車為客戶提供最新的技術和最佳的營運效率。我們預計 2024 年歐洲 16 噸以上市場的卡車數量將在 26 萬至 30 萬輛之間。

South America is a region of PACCAR's geographic growth. DAF Brazil increased market share to 10.3% in the first six months of this year compared to 9.2% a year ago. DAF trucks are highly desired by customers in South America.

南美洲是 PACCAR 地理成長的地區。今年前六個月，DAF 巴西的市佔率從去年同期的 9.2% 增加到 10.3%。DAF 卡車深受南美客戶的青睞。

Over the last few quarters, we've been updating you on the progress of a battery joint venture that PACCAR formed with Cummins, Daimler Truck, and EVE Energy. This joint venture, named Amplify Cell Technologies, will produce state-of-the-art batteries that are specifically designed for commercial vehicle duty cycles. Amplify Cell Technologies began construction of the new factory in the second quarter.

在過去的幾個季度中，我們一直在向您通報 PACCAR 與康明斯、戴姆勒卡車和 EVE Energy 組成的電池合資企業的最新進展。這家名為 Amplify Cell Technologies 的合資企業將生產專為商用車工作週期設計的最先進的電池。Amplify Cell Technologies 於第二季開始興建新工廠。

PACCAR continues to demonstrate strong performance through all phases of the business cycle and is expanding its global manufacturing capacity as we are excited about the future.

佩卡在商業週期的各個階段繼續展現強勁的業績，並正在擴大其全球製造能力，因為我們對未來感到興奮。

Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial Services, and other business highlights. Harrie?

Harrie Schippers 現在將提供有關 PACCAR 零件、PACCAR 金融服務和其他業務亮點的最新資訊。哈里？

Thanks, Preston.

謝謝，普雷斯頓。

PACCAR delivered 48,400 trucks and achieved excellent truck parts and other gross margins of 18% in the second quarter. We estimate third-quarter deliveries to be around 43,000 to 44,000 trucks, with strong truck parts and other gross margins of around 17%. The third-quarter delivery estimate reflects normal truck markets and the regular summer production shutdown in Europe.

PACCAR第二季度交付了48,400輛卡車，並實現了出色的卡車零件和其他毛利率18%。我們預計第三季卡車交付量約為 43,000 至 44,000 輛，卡車零件和其他毛利率強勁，約 17%。第三季的交付量估計反映了卡車市場的正常情況以及歐洲夏季正常停產的情況。

PACCAR Parts achieved excellent second-quarter gross margins of 30.3%. Parts quarterly sales grew by 4% compared to the same period last year and is expected to grow around 4% for the rest of this year. PACCAR Parts' focus on expanding its customer base and providing a full range of transportation solutions is enabling solid revenue growth in a softer after-sales market.

PACCAR Parts 第二季毛利率達到 30.3%，表現優異。零件季度銷售額較去年同期成長4%，預計今年剩餘時間成長4%左右。PACCAR Parts 專注於擴大客戶群並提供全方位的運輸解決方案，這使得在疲軟的售後市場中實現了穩健的收入成長。

PACCAR Parts opened a new distribution center in the country of Colombia in the second quarter and will open another distribution center in Germany later this year. Each new distribution center increases the number of dealers and customers benefiting from receiving parts on the same or next day.

佩卡零件公司第二季在哥倫比亞開設了一個新的配送中心，並將於今年稍後在德國開設另一個配送中心。每個新的配送中心都會增加經銷商和客戶的數量，使他們受益於當天或第二天收到零件。

PACCAR Financials is having another good year. PACCAR Financial Services second-quarter pre-tax income was $111 million, reflecting its high-quality portfolio and normal used truck markets. PACCAR achieved an industry-leading return on invested capital of 27% in the first half of this year.

佩卡金融公司又迎來了美好的一年。PACCAR Financial Services 第二季稅前收入為 1.11 億美元，反映了其高品質的投資組合和普通二手卡車市場。PACCAR 今年上半年實現了 27% 的行業領先投資資本回報率。

In 2024, we're projecting R&D expenses in the range of $460 million to $480 million as we continue to invest in key technology and innovation projects. These include a full suite of high-quality clean diesel and zero-emission powertrains, innovative advanced driver assistance systems, and new connected vehicle services that enhance our customers' operational efficiency.

到 2024 年，隨著我們繼續投資關鍵技術和創新項目，我們預計研發費用將在 4.6 億至 4.8 億美元之間。其中包括全套高品質清潔柴油和零排放動力系統、創新的高級駕駛員輔助系統以及可提高客戶營運效率的新型連網車輛服務。

PACCAR is planning capital investments in the range of $725 million to $775 million this year as we continue expanding manufacturing capacity at our factories in Europe, the United States, Mexico, Brazil, and Australia. These investments are supporting PACCAR's growth, as well as our customers' success. PACCAR's investments in its industry-leading truck lineup, efficient manufacturing capacity, best-in-class parts and financial services businesses, and the continued development of advanced technologies position the company well for today and for the future.

佩卡今年計劃進行 7.25 億至 7.75 億美元的資本投資，繼續擴大歐洲、美國、墨西哥、巴西和澳洲工廠的生產能力。這些投資支持佩卡的發展以及我們客戶的成功。佩卡對其行業領先的卡車系列、高效的製造能力、一流的零件和金融服務業務以及先進技術的持續開發的投資，使該公司在今天和未來都處於有利地位。

Thank you. We'd be pleased to answer your questions.

謝謝。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.

（操作員說明）Stephen Volkmann，Jefferies。

Hi. Good morning, gentlemen. Thank you for taking the question.

你好。早安，先生們。感謝您提出問題。

The question is -- appreciate it. The question actually is kind of around your sort of R&D and CapEx ramps that we're seeing. It strikes me that probably one of the key things that I would worry about would be if there's a potential that the various emission regulations actually change with a change in government. And I'm assuming you guys must have some good connections in Washington. And certainly not asking you to pontificate on the outcome of this, but is there a risk in your mind that the target moves here and that you actually may have to do something different than what you're currently doing relative to these regulations?

問題是──欣賞它。問題實際上是圍繞著我們所看到的研發和資本支出的成長。讓我震驚的是，我擔心的關鍵事情之一可能是，各種排放法規是否有可能隨著政府的更迭而實際變化。我猜想你們在華盛頓一定有一些好的關係。當然不是要求你武斷地談論這一結果，但你的想法是否存在目標轉移到這裡的風險，並且你實際上可能必須做一些與你目前相對於這些法規所做的事情不同的事情？

Sure, good question. Thanks for taking the time to ask it. I'd start by saying that the reason our R&D and CapEx expenses are moving upward is because we have a lot of really good projects to work on. They come in the form of technology related to emissions, but also just improvements in operating efficiency of trucks and transportation solutions we can provide to our customers. So when we have a good set of projects, we invest in them, and that's what we're doing right now.

當然，好問題。感謝您花時間詢問。我首先要說的是，我們的研發和資本支出支出上升的原因是我們有很多非常好的專案要進行。它們以與排放相關的技術的形式出現，但也只是我們可以為客戶提供的卡車營運效率和運輸解決方案的改進。因此，當我們擁有一系列好的項目時，我們就會對其進行投資，而這就是我們現在正在做的事情。

Regarding the changes in emissions regulations, we don't have the answer to that. And what we do think is it's unlikely and that it won't change the total number of trucks PACCAR delivers over a few year period of time. It might just shift the timing of those.

關於排放法規的變化，我們沒有答案。我們確實認為這不太可能，也不會改變 PACCAR 在幾年內交付的卡車總數。它可能只是改變了這些的時間。

Okay, great. And can you speak broadly to how much capacity you're adding across the system with these various investments?

好的，太好了。您能否廣泛地談談您透過這些不同的投資在整個系統中增加了多少容量？

We've shared with you previously that our intention is to grow our market share. And so what we're doing is getting capacity in line with that, so that if we see peak market conditions that are kind of similar to what we saw in 2023 that we can grow market share in those markets as well. So you could think of it as like a 10% to 15%, in some case, increase in capacity.

我們之前曾與您分享過，我們的目的是擴大市場份額。因此，我們正在做的就是讓產能與此一致，這樣，如果我們看到與 2023 年類似的高峰市場狀況，我們也可以增加這些市場的市場份額。因此，在某些情況下，您可以將其視為容量增加 10% 到 15%。

Great. Thank you. I'll pass it on.

偉大的。謝謝。我會把它傳遞下去。

Steven Fisher, UBS.

史蒂文費雪，瑞銀。

Thanks for taking the question, and good morning. Just wanted to unpack the Q3 expected 17% truck parts and other margins a little bit. Can you just give us a sense of how much of a factor, if there's any, perhaps one-time costs in there, any pricing changes or pressure, any mix from trucks versus parts in there? I would have thought that might be a little more supportive. Just any way to unpack that 17% a little bit.

感謝您提出問題，早安。只是想拆開第三季預計 17% 的卡車零件和其他一點利潤。您能否讓我們了解影響因素有多大，其中是否存在任何（也許是一次性成本）、任何價格變化或壓力、卡車與零件的任何混合？我以為這可能會更有支持性。只要有辦法能稍微解開這 17% 的影響。

Well, I would start by saying, remember, in Q3, there's a typical holiday season in Europe that takes a few thousand units out which has some impact to it. I'd also say that as we look at the truckload sector, our customers' rates are remaining low and I think that has some opportunity of impact for pricing and cost balance in the third quarter as well. But there's no big one-time thing sitting in there.

好吧，我首先要說的是，請記住，在第三季度，歐洲有一個典型的假期季節，這會導致數千輛汽車的銷量下降，這對其產生了一些影響。我還想說，當我們審視卡車運輸業時，我們的客戶費率仍然很低，我認為這也有可能對第三季的定價和成本平衡產生影響。但裡面並沒有一次性的大東西。

Okay. And then maybe on the parts margin, specifically in the quarter, can you talk about what drove the negative incrementals this quarter and what maybe you're expecting for Q3 and Q4? It was just a surprising takedown. Just kind of wondering if this is maybe a more broader correction after a strong period of the cycle. Or is there maybe just any sort of one-time dynamic?

好的。然後，也許在零件利潤方面，特別是在本季度，您能否談談是什麼推動了本季的負增量以及您對第三季和第四季的預期？這只是一次令人驚訝的擊倒。只是想知道這是否可能是在強勁的周期之後的更廣泛的調整。或者是否存在某種一次性動態？

I think what you look at is the comps are really strong from last year when the market was just constrained by supply. And now it's not, so I think everybody's participating in the truck and parts market. I think the team is just doing a fantastic job. I mean 30.3% parts margins are very strong and continue to be strong, so we think that we'll see improvement in those as time comes along again.

我認為你所看到的是，與去年相比，當市場僅受到供應限制時，比較非常強勁。但現在不是了，所以我認為每個人都在參與卡車和零件市場。我認為團隊做得非常出色。我的意思是，30.3% 的零件利潤率非常強勁，並且將繼續保持強勁，因此我們認為，隨著時間的推移，我們將看到這些利潤率再次改善。

But obviously, we're making sure that we keep our share of the market. And I would kind of remind that the after-sales market is down this year, and so parts growing in a down after-sales environment is a testament to their great abilities.

但顯然，我們正在確保保持我們的市場份額。我想提醒一下，今年售後市場不景氣，所以零件在售後不景氣的環境中成長，證明了他們的強大能力。

And still achieving margins above 30%.

並且仍達到 30% 以上的利潤率。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

塔米·扎卡里亞，摩根大通。

Hi, everyone. Thank you so much. So I think, Preston, I just heard you say -- hi. So I think I just heard you say that Q3, typically, Europe sees some seasonal shutdown. And over the last few years, we've seen fourth-quarter deliveries actually a bit higher than the third quarter. Is that how we should be thinking about this year as well?

大家好。太感謝了。所以我想，普雷斯頓，我剛剛聽到你說——嗨。所以我想我剛剛聽到你說，第三季度，歐洲通常會出現一些季節性停工。在過去幾年中，我們看到第四季的交付量實際上比第三季要高一些。今年我們也該這樣思考嗎？

No. I think what we'd say in the previous years is you can look at a lot more other factors driving things. There was timing of deliveries. I mean, there's the term that you all like to use, the red tags of a period of a couple years ago. So I think you have to say we're in a more normal operating environment right now. And normal feels healthy and good, but you'd expect the Q3 deliveries to be in that 43,000 to 44,000 range.

不。我認為我們在前幾年會說的是，你可以考慮更多其他驅動因素。有交貨時間。我的意思是，有一個你們都喜歡使用的術語，幾年前一段時期的紅色標籤。所以我認為你不得不說我們現在處於一個更正常的營運環境。正常的感覺是健康和良好的，但你預計第三季的交付量將在 43,000 到 44,000 之間。

Got it. That's helpful. And then my second question is I think you tweaked lower the US-Canada outlook by about 10,000 units. What are some of the pockets of strength versus weakness? What I'm trying to understand is which category within that bucket weakened in the last few months that drove you to reduce the outlook?

知道了。這很有幫助。我的第二個問題是，我認為您將美國-加拿大前景下調了約 10,000 個單位。哪些方面是優勢，哪些是劣勢？我想了解的是，該類別中的哪個類別在過去幾個月中表現疲軟，導致您降低了前景？

Sure, Tami. Good question to think about the totality of the market. What we see is like the vocational market remains strong for us. We still have a lot of demand for our market-leading trucks for Peterbilt and Kenworth in that space. The LTL market remains healthy with kind of a normal cadence to it.

當然，塔米。思考整個市場的好問題。我們看到，職業市場對我們來說仍然很強勁。在該領域，我們對 Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 市場領先的卡車仍有大量需求。零擔市場保持健康，節奏正常。

But I think our customers in the truckload sector are still seeing spot rates at low levels and contract rates at low levels. And maybe that's the part that there might have been an expectation of starting to lift off the bottom at this point for them.

但我認為我們卡車運輸業的客戶仍然看到現貨費率和合約費率處於較低水平。也許這就是人們期望他們在此時開始走出谷底的部分。

Got it. Okay, great. Thank you.

知道了。好的，太好了。謝謝。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略，摩根士丹利。

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question.

你好。早安.感謝您提出我的問題。

I just wanted to go back to the comment about price cost and perhaps -- hi, Preston -- just the price cost comment around the parts segment, if we could kind of expand on that more broadly for trucks, parts, and the full kind of equipment business. Just curious if price cost is going to be a little bit more negative or under pressure across just the broader business. And your comment around maintaining share in the parts business, how should we think about that as it pertains to pricing strategy both in parts, but also any kind of weakness in trucks as well and pricing strategy there?

我只是想回到關於價格成本的評論，也許 - 嗨，普雷斯頓 - 只是圍繞零件細分市場的價格成本評論，如果我們可以更廣泛地擴展卡車、零件和全類型的價格成本評論的裝備業務。只是好奇價格成本是否會更加負面或在更廣泛的業務中承受壓力。您關於保持零件業務份額的評論，我們應該如何考慮這一點，因為它既涉及零件的定價策略，也涉及卡車的任何弱點及其定價策略？

Price cost in the second quarter for trucks, price was up slightly less than 1%, cost was up slightly more than 1%, so pretty much in balance. If you look at the parts business, price was up 3%, cost was up 5%, so a little bit more margin pressure there as we saw in the 30.3% gross margin for parts, but a really nice performance if you take into account that the overall aftermarket parts market was smaller, especially in the US and Canada this year.

第二季卡車的價格成本，價格上漲略低於1%，成本上漲略高於1%，所以基本上處於平衡狀態。如果你看一下零件業務，價格上漲了3%，成本上漲了5%，因此利潤率壓力有點大，正如我們在零件毛利率30.3% 中看到的那樣，但如果考慮到這一點，業績確實不錯整體售後零件市場規模較小，尤其是今年在美國和加拿大。

Yeah. Just kind of what Harrie said, Angel, I think the fact that our after-sales parts team is growing in a market that's declining, that our truck division and Peterbilt and Kenworth are growing market share in a market that's smaller last year is just a testament to the high-quality products and transportation solutions the team's providing. And I think it's just showing up there.

是的。正如哈利所說，安吉爾，我認為我們的售後零件團隊在一個不斷下滑的市場中不斷發展，我們的卡車部門以及彼得比爾特和肯沃斯在去年較小的市場中不斷增長的市場份額，這只是一個事實證明了團隊提供的高品質產品和運輸解決方案。我認為它只是出現在那裡。

That's very helpful. And maybe just to kind of continue down that path, just in terms of your order book fill rate for the third quarter and fourth quarter, can you just talk about the level of visibility that you have beyond maybe as we think about even heading into the fourth quarter in orders? Yeah, just any comments there.

這非常有幫助。也許只是為了繼續沿著這條路走下去，就第三季度和第四季度的訂單簿填充率而言，您能否談談您所擁有的可見性水平，也許我們甚至考慮進入第四季度訂單情況？是的，只是有任何評論。

Sure. Happy to do that, Angel. If you look at the third quarter, we have a few openings left in the third quarter, but we're substantially full for the quarter, and in the fourth quarter, we're over half full.

當然。很高興這樣做，天使。如果你看一下第三季度，我們在第三季度還剩下一些職位空缺，但本季度我們已經基本滿員，而在第四季度，我們已經滿員了一半以上。

So obviously, as we said before, the vocational segment is the place where they have the greatest strength, and then the LTL market, less than truckload market. And then the truckload carriers, I think, are trying to decide what their cadence is going to be for the balance of the year.

所以顯然，正如我們之前所說，職業細分市場是他們最有實力的地方，然後是零擔市場，不及整車市場。然後，我認為卡車承運商正試圖決定今年剩餘時間的運輸節奏。

Very helpful. Thank you.

很有幫助。謝謝。

Jamie Cook, Truist.

傑米·庫克，真理主義者。

Hi. Good morning. I guess just two questions. Back to, I mean, your orders, I think -- or sorry, your deliveries were 48,400 relative to your expectation of 48,000. So a little ahead, but your margin was at the lower end of your targeted range of 18% to 18.5%. So was there anything else impacting the margin besides the price cost sort of headwind that you just spoke to? I'm just wondering if there's anything else unusual on that. And then do you expect price cost to continue to be negative into the fourth quarter?

你好。早安.我想只有兩個問題。回到我的意思是，你的訂單，我想——或者抱歉，相對於你預期的 48,000 份，你的交貨量是 48,400 份。稍微領先一點，但您的利潤率處於目標範圍 18% 至 18.5% 的下限。那麼，除了您剛才談到的價格成本等逆風之外，還有其他因素影響利潤率嗎？我只是想知道這是否還有什麼不尋常的地方。那麼您預計第四季價格成本將繼續為負值嗎？

And then, I guess, my follow-up question on Europe, I think your deliveries are down 30% for the first half relative to your industry retail sales forecast of down 13% to down 22%. So why are we underperforming, or it implies you're underperforming the market at least, in the first half of the year? Just any color on that. Thank you.

然後，我想，關於歐洲的後續問題，我認為你們上半年的交付量下降了 30%，相對於行業零售額預測下降 13% 到下降 22%。那麼，為什麼我們表現不佳，或者這意味著你至少在今年上半年表現不佳？任何顏色都可以。謝謝。

Sure, Jamie. I think that was actually three questions, but it's good to hear from you and nice to get the questions from you.

當然，傑米。我認為這實際上是三個問題，但很高興收到您的來信，也很高興收到您的問題。

If you look at any other commentary around the 48,400 and the 18%, there's not really anything different that we'd share on that. It's kind of exactly what we thought would happen. Obviously, the industry had a supplier who had an issue in Mexico in the quarter and we kind of had to manage through that, so I think that we managed through. Our teams did a fantastic job working with the supplier who did a great job recovering, and that allowed us to get to that 48,400 number. So kudos to the suppliers, kudos to our teams and our ops teams for getting that sorted out, and that led to the strong performance.

如果你看一下關於 48,400 和 18% 的任何其他評論，我們對此沒有什麼不同。這正是我們所認為會發生的事情。顯然，該行業的一家供應商本季在墨西哥遇到了問題，我們必須解決這個問題，所以我認為我們已經解決了。我們的團隊與供應商的合作非常出色，供應商的復原工作也非常出色，這使我們能夠達到 48,400 的數字。因此，向供應商致敬，向我們的團隊和營運團隊致敬，他們解決了這個問題，並帶來了強勁的業績。

I think you could say that the trend from Q1 to Q2 and to Q3 should be similar in that we'll have price and cost challenges sitting in front of us with that implied in the 70%. And again, the reason is I think we're looking at the truckload carriers and watching how they're making their decisions right now and seeing where they go from there, but that being offset by strong vocational and LTL markets and a very good performing medium-duty truck. So the trucks are performing well; it's just the underlying basis of contract rates, I'd say.

我認為你可以說，從第一季到第二季和第三季的趨勢應該是相似的，因為我們將面臨價格和成本挑戰，這隱含在 70% 中。再說一次，原因是我認為我們正在關注卡車承運商，觀察他們現在如何做出決定，看看他們從那裡走向何方，但這被強大的職業和零擔市場以及非常好的表現所抵消中型卡車。所以卡車的性能良好；我想說，這只是合約費率的基本基礎。

And then maybe, Harrie, any commentary on trends in the EU?

哈里，也許您對歐盟的趨勢有何評論？

Yeah. In Europe, volumes were down 30%, as you mentioned, Jamie. Especially in Central and Eastern Europe, where DAF is strong, the market is softening and so DAF is working through that. We continue to benefit from our new DAF, which has the best fuel economy in this industry, and it's positioned in a premium pricing position. So we'll continue to benefit from that, but yeah, weaker Central and Eastern European markets do have an impact on DAF a little bit more than proportional for Europe in general.

是的。正如您所提到的，Jamie，在歐洲，銷量下降了 30%。尤其是在達夫實力雄厚的中歐和東歐，市場正在疲軟，因此達夫正在努力解決這個問題。我們繼續受益於我們的新型 DAF，它具有業內最佳的燃油經濟性，並且處於優質定價位置。因此，我們將繼續從中受益，但是，中歐和東歐市場疲軟確實對 DAF 的影響比整個歐洲的影響要大一些。

And I think, Harrie, you said it, but I'd just reemphasize the fact that the pricing discipline of the team is very good right now.

我想，哈里，你說過了，但我只是再次強調一個事實，即團隊的定價紀律現在非常好。

Thank you. I appreciate the color.

謝謝。我很欣賞它的顏色。

David Raso, Evercore ISI.

大衛·拉索，Evercore ISI。

Hi. Thank you for the time. I was just curious, your conversations with customers regarding the potential or already putting in motion plans for a pre-buy, has the tone of the conversation changed at all with the last month of what we've seen politically?

你好。謝謝你的時間。我只是很好奇，您與客戶就預購的可能性或已經啟動的預購計劃進行的對話，與上個月我們在政治上看到的情況相比，對話的基調是否發生了變化？

And then I just have a quick follow-up on US-Canada, call it North America, inventory. I know you're looking to gain share and you've gained share already this year, but I'm just trying to be thoughtful about going into '25, the inventory in the industry is a bit elevated, the backlog to build is pushing below 4. So just how do you see your inventory exiting '24 into '25? And again, circle back if you can to the question about the pre-buy.

然後我對美國-加拿大進行了快速跟進，稱之為北美庫存。我知道您希望獲得份額，而且今年您已經獲得了份額，但我只是想考慮進入 25 年，該行業的庫存有點高，積壓的建設正在推動低於 4。那麼，您如何看待您的庫存從 24 年退出到 25 年？如果可以的話，再次回到有關預購的問題。

Yeah, sure. So David, pre-buy, we're spending a lot of time with our customers. I don't think there's been any change in their assumptions. The EP rules are sitting out there already. I think they'll probably remain out there. It's easy to hypothesize they wouldn't, but I think that's speculative.

好，當然。所以大衛，預購，我們花了很多時間與客戶在一起。我認為他們的假設沒有任何改變。歐洲議會的規則已經制定好了。我認為他們可能會留在那裡。很容易假設他們不會，但我認為這是推測性的。

And so I think they're trying to figure out what their buying plans will be in '25 and then into '26, but I don't think there's any change in assumption right now. I think trucks are being well used, there is a lot of freight being moved out there, so trucks are being healthily consumed and they'll need a replacement at some point.

所以我認為他們正在試圖弄清楚他們在 25 年和 26 年的購買計劃是什麼，但我認為現在的假設沒有任何改變。我認為卡車得到了很好的使用，有很多貨物被運出去，所以卡車正在被健康地消耗，並且在某個時候需要更換。

I'd also say that from an inventory standpoint, the industry's at like 3.9 months of retail sales, and PACCAR's at a very healthy 3.3 months. So as we're seeing our market share gain, we feel like our inventory's in really good shape. And I would add to that the fact that we have such a high vocational share that's also contributing to where our inventory levels are at. So things feel quite good for us in terms of inventory with the share growth we're realizing.

我還想說，從庫存的角度來看，該行業的零售額約為 3.9 個月，而 PACCAR 的零售額為 3.3 個月，非常健康。因此，當我們看到市場份額增加時，我們感覺我們的庫存狀況非常好。我想補充一點，我們擁有如此高的職業份額，這也有助於我們的庫存水準。因此，就庫存而言，隨著我們實現的份額增長，我們感覺非常好。

And can I just follow up on that comment on vocational? Obviously, it's a strength for PACCAR. Are you looking at the vocational market where you're having, say, better visibility into '25 already, just given a key supplier that's maybe limiting a little bit? How many vocationals you can sell? How should we think about vocational into '25 versus, obviously, we all can think through a pre-buy or not, but the vocational in particular? Thank you.

我可以跟進有關職業的評論嗎？顯然，這是 PACCAR 的優點。您是否正在關注職業市場，比如說，您已經對 25 年有了更好的了解，只是給定了一個可能會受到一點限制的關鍵供應商？您可以出售多少職業？我們該如何考慮25年的職業，顯然，我們都可以考慮是否要預購，但職業尤其如此？謝謝。

Yeah, you bet. I think that with the infrastructure spending that's just getting -- really going in the US and the amount of, call it, reshoring that seems to be happening, that bodes well for a strong vocational market for a while. And there have been supply constraints in the inventory or in the vocational side of the market, so I think that we see steady strength for quite a period of time.

是的，你打賭。我認為，隨著基礎設施支出在美國真正投入使用，以及所謂的回流似乎正在發生，這對於職業市場在一段時間內的強勁來說是個好兆頭。庫存或職業市場方面一直存在供應限制，因此我認為我們在相當長的一段時間內看到了穩定的實力。

All right. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

傑瑞·雷維奇，高盛。

Yes. Hi. Good morning, everyone. I just wanted to ask on warranties -- hi, Preston. On warranties, you folks had put up really good margin for the past couple of years while paying for higher warranty costs that were out of period. Where do we stand now? Are your warranty accrual rates starting to come down? Are we starting to see that tailwind playing out in the numbers?

是的。你好。大家，早安。我只是想問保固問題——嗨，普雷斯頓。在保固方面，你們在過去幾年中獲得了非常好的利潤，同時支付了超出期限的更高保固成本。我們現在處於什麼位置？您的保固應計率開始下降嗎？我們是否開始看到數字上的順風車？

Yeah. Good observation, Jerry. Warranty costs have been developing very favorable, and it reflects the excellent trucks that we're currently building and that customers are experiencing. So yeah, that's moving into the right direction.

是的。觀察力很好，傑瑞。保固成本一直在非常有利地發展，這反映了我們目前正在製造的以及客戶正在體驗的優秀卡車。是的，這正在朝著正確的方向發展。

And Harrie, can I ask the cost number, if I heard right, for parts was up 5% year over year. What drove that and what's the outlook for cost per unit for your parts business if we see it continuing at this 5% rate? Is it fair to think about pricing re-accelerating to recoup that for the parts business?

Harrie，我可以問一下零件的成本數字嗎？是什麼推動了這一趨勢？考慮重新加速定價以彌補零件業務的損失是否公平？

No. I think for the pricing, I said pricing was up 3% and costs were up 5%, and we expect to continue to see favorable pricing developments as we move through the year.

不。我認為就定價而言，我說定價上漲了 3%，成本上漲了 5%，我們預計今年將繼續看到有利的定價發展。

Yeah. I think as we look forward in the parts side, maybe specifically, we would start to see some improvement in price versus cost in the outer quarter.

是的。我認為，當我們展望零件方面時，也許具體而言，我們將開始看到外季度價格與成本的一些改善。

So was it just the one-off related to a supplier issue that you spoke about earlier, or was that just on the OEM side? I'm just wondering how broad-based is the inflation that we saw in the quarter versus just transitory?

那麼這只是您之前提到的與供應商問題相關的一次性問題，還是只是 OEM 方面的問題？我只是想知道我們在本季看到的通膨與短暫的通膨相比，其基礎有多廣泛？

No, the 5% cost increase is broad-based. It's inflation, and the parts business is a little different than the trucking business. But the price versus cost reflects the softer after-sales market in North America mainly that we talked about earlier during the call.

不，5% 的成本增加是廣泛的。這是通貨膨脹，零件業務與貨運業務略有不同。但價格與成本的對比反映了北美售後市場的疲軟，這主要是我們之前在電話會議中談到的。

Got it. Super. And lastly, I'm wondering if you could just update us on the performance of your trucks in California that are on the new emissions specs. What's been the fuel economy and broader performance since you've rolled out the new engines?

知道了。極好的。最後，我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下您在加州符合新排放規格的卡車的性能。自從推出新引擎以來，燃油經濟性和更廣泛的性能如何？

So the California market has taken a bit of a pause and a breath, I think, as the Advanced Clean Fleet, Advanced Clean Truck rules have come into place. The market has slowed down. I'd say that we are the only ones that have developed an engine that I'm aware of, an engine that is fully compliant. And so that engine is just entering the market because there was a lot of carryover from last year there. But that engine is entering the market, and it will be an early look at technology for 2027. And we're really pleased to be leading the way into that.

因此，我認為，隨著高級清潔車隊、高級清潔卡車規則的出台，加州市場已經稍微停頓了一下。市場已經放緩。我想說，據我所知，我們是唯一開發出完全相容的引擎的公司。因此，該引擎剛剛進入市場，因為去年有很多遺留問題。但該引擎正在進入市場，這將是 2027 年技術的早期展望。我們非常高興能夠帶頭實現這一目標。

Yeah. Super. Thank you.

是的。極好的。謝謝。

Chad Dillard, Bernstein.

查德·迪拉德，伯恩斯坦。

Hi. Good morning, guys. So got a -- this is a hard question. So if you compare the truck industry today to what it was, let's say, five years ago, how has the industry's ability to hold on to price changed? That's the first part. And then second, if it comes to it, is PACCAR willing to seize truck market share if it means holding the line on price?

你好。早上好傢伙。所以有一個——這是一個很難的問題。因此，如果將今天的卡車產業與五年前相比，該產業控制價格的能力發生了怎樣的變化？這是第一部分。其次，如果這意味著堅守價格底線，佩卡是否願意搶佔卡車市場份額？

So that's a great -- I love your first question in there. And thinking about the truck market today and the ability -- I think that the market has access to great PACCAR products that are providing a lower total cost of ownership today, more than any point in history. And so these trucks are helping our operators be more successful, our customers be more successful. And I think that's contributing to a structurally stronger PACCAR, where we're able to realize better margins cycle over cycle.

這太棒了——我喜歡你的第一個問題。考慮到當今的卡車市場和能力，我認為市場可以獲得出色的 PACCAR 產品，這些產品提供的總擁有成本比歷史上任何時候都低。因此，這些卡車正在幫助我們的營運商取得更大的成功，幫助我們的客戶取得更大的成功。我認為這有助於在結構上增強 PACCAR，我們能夠在一個又一個週期內實現更好的利潤率。

And we're doing that. And I think the same is true on our transportation solutions and our PACCAR Parts businesses, where we're able to get more and more parts to our customers in the same day, which is highly valuable to them, which is also helpful to them. So I think that that's why the structurally stronger business is working so well.

我們正在這樣做。我認為我們的運輸解決方案和佩卡零件業務也是如此，我們能夠在同一天向客戶提供越來越多的零件，這對他們來說非常有價值，對他們也有幫助。所以我認為這就是為什麼結構更強大的業務運作得如此良好的原因。

The one thing -- or one of the things that drives this, Chad, is also the legislation on greenhouse gas reductions. So over the last five, eight years, we've been improving greenhouse gas emissions, which means fuel economy improvement for our customers. So it means that if you buy a new truck today compared to five years ago, you'll get a truck with 10%, 15% better fuel economy. And that's creating a lot of value for our customers.

乍得，一件事——或者說推動這一趨勢的因素之一，也是溫室氣體減排立法。因此，在過去的五、八年裡，我們一直在改善溫室氣體排放，這意味著我們的客戶的燃油經濟性得到改善。因此，這意味著如果您今天購買一輛新卡車，與五年前相比，您將獲得一輛燃油經濟性增加 10%、15% 的卡車。這為我們的客戶創造了很多價值。

Got you. And then the second part, I mean, if it comes to it, is PACCAR willing to seize truck market share if it means holding the line on price?

明白你了。然後第二部分，我的意思是，如果涉及到這一點，佩卡是否願意搶佔卡車市場份額，如果這意味著在價格上保持底線？

Well, what I look at right now is I think the team's done a fantastic job of looking at the share growth that we're realizing right now. I mean, we've gone from 27.7% last year to 31.5% this year and delivered 18% gross margins in the second quarter. I'm really proud of what they're doing in keeping both in balance.

嗯，我現在看到的是，我認為團隊在我們現在實現的份額成長方面做得非常出色。我的意思是，我們已經從去年的 27.7% 上升到今年的 31.5%，第二季的毛利率達到 18%。我對他們在保持兩者平衡方面所做的努力感到非常自豪。

Got it. Okay, thank you. That's all for me.

知道了。好的謝謝。這就是我的全部。

Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

羅布‧韋特海默，Melius 研究中心。

Thank you. Preston, I wonder if you can expand on the comments -- the share performance is remarkable. I know there's probably a mixed benefit on vocational versus sleeper cabs or whatever, but it seems like it's probably more than that and more broad-based. So I wonder if you just have any comments to help with the sustainability of that or what's driven it aside from jet products?

謝謝。普雷斯頓，我想知道您是否可以補充您的評論——股票表現非常出色。我知道職業出租車與臥舖出租車或其他什麼的好處可能有好壞參半，但似乎它可能不止於此，而且基礎更廣泛。所以我想知道您是否有任何意見可以幫助其可持續性，或者除了噴氣機產品之外是什麼推動了它？

Yeah, sure. I think that over the last few years, as we've shared often with you, we've invested in new product upgrades. We've spent wisely in our research and development efforts, and the trucks out there are performing exceptionally well for our customers. And that's contributing to the share growth.

好，當然。我認為在過去幾年中，正如我們經常與您分享的那樣，我們在新產品升級方面進行了投資。我們在研發方面投入了明智的努力，卡車為我們的客戶提供了非常好的表現。這有助於份額增長。

I also think we have a fantastic dealer network who's doing a good job of taking care of our customers. And as I just mentioned, the parts organization is also a fantastic support, and we offer great financial services. I don't think you can say it's one or the other. It's all of them that are structurally helping us.

我還認為我們擁有出色的經銷商網絡，他們在照顧客戶方面做得很好。正如我剛才提到的，零件組織也是一個極好的支持，我們提供優質的金融服務。我認為你不能說這是其中之一。所有這些都在結構上幫助我們。

And then the additive to that is, as you said, a strong vocational market where we're the market leader is helpful as well. And we see that also in the medium-duty side. It's not just the heavy-duty side, but we introduced a new product and we've grown significantly with that new product and really supportive of our customers' businesses.

正如您所說，除此之外，我們是市場領導者的強大職業市場也很有幫助。我們在中型方面也看到了這一點。這不僅僅是重型方面，而且我們推出了一種新產品，隨著該新產品的推出，我們取得了顯著的成長，並真正支持了客戶的業務。

And Harrie, anything you'd add?

哈里，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

The last two or three years, I think we were also held back by supplier capacity. And now, with the supply base easing up, we get the opportunity to grow market share, and that's what we're doing with the great new products.

過去兩三年，我認為我們也受到了供應商產能的阻礙。現在，隨著供應基礎的放鬆，我們有機會擴大市場份額，這就是我們對偉大的新產品所做的事情。

[Also in the mix a little bit]. Okay, that makes sense. If I may, on the battery JV, it's still a ways out I know and the market's still going to develop. But do you have any thoughts on the ramp and offtake of the batteries? I don't know whether it's clear to you whether that'll be largely medium-duty or whether you're still introducing products that will absorb those batteries or just any comments on where the evolution of that is, and I'll stop there. Thank you.

[也混合一點]。好吧，這是有道理的。如果可以的話，在電池合資企業上，我知道這仍然是一條出路，而且市場仍在發展。但是您對電池的坡道和卸載有什麼想法嗎？我不知道您是否清楚這是否主要是中型，或者您是否仍在推出能夠吸收這些電池的產品，或者只是對它的演變發表任何評論，我就到此為止。謝謝。

Good question, and I think it's what we're all trying to understand in the future. It's part of the reason we did this in a joint venture is we wanted to develop batteries that were optimized for the commercial vehicle market and had a great cost position for them, so we had the most competitive products out there. So we get scale here, but we also get benefits of cost.

這是個好問題，我想這也是我們未來都會試著理解的問題。我們在合資企業中這樣做的部分原因是我們希望開發針對商用車市場優化的電池，並且具有良好的成本優勢，因此我們擁有最具競爭力的產品。因此，我們在這裡獲得了規模，但我們也獲得了成本效益。

The primary applications will start, I think, and return to base, so that could be medium-duty or pickup and delivery, where trucks' total cost of ownership could be positive with a battery operation, but you can keep your charging in a local area. I think that will be kind of how we thought about the offtake, and it'll take, I think, significantly more time before this would translate into an over-the-road solution. But we can use this battery factory to serve other markets as well. It's not just out to be North America, and I think it was proving to be a good decision the way we structured it.

我認為，主要應用程式將啟動並返回基地，因此可能是中型或取貨和送貨，其中卡車的總擁有成本可能會透過電池操作而增加，但您可以在本地充電區域。我認為這將是我們對承購的看法，而且我認為，在轉化為公路解決方案之前，需要花費更多的時間。但我們也可以利用這個電池工廠來服務其他市場。它不僅僅針對北美，而且我認為事實證明我們的建造方式是一個很好的決定。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Nicole DeBlase, Deutsche Bank.

妮可‧德布拉斯 (Nicole DeBlase)，德意志銀行。

Yeah. Thanks for the question, guys. I guess maybe just starting with the 3Q delivery outlook. So I know we've got the usual production shutdown in Europe, which has an impact of a few thousand units. Does that imply that US and Canada is kind of flat to down slightly from a delivery perspective?

是的。謝謝你們的提問，夥伴們。我想也許只是從第三季的交付前景開始。所以我知道我們在歐洲已經像往常一樣停產了，這會影響數千台產品。這是否意味著從交貨角度來看，美國和加拿大的情況持平或略有下降？

I think I would look at it, Nicole, as saying that that's half of the total delivery shift between 2Q and Q3, and then the other is market.

妮可，我想我會說這是第二季和第三季之間總交付量的一半，然後另一個是市場。

Market in North America.

市場在北美。

Market in North America adjustments that I would say are reflecting in that.

我想說的是北美市場的調整反映了這一點。

Okay, got it. That's clear. Thank you. And then sorry to belabor the point on price; I know you guys have had this question like a million different ways. But is there a risk within the truck segment only that pricing could potentially go negative in the back half? Or is that not what you guys would expect to see?

好，知道了。很清楚。謝謝。然後很抱歉要詳細說明價格問題；我知道你們已經用一百萬種不同的方式問過這個問題。但卡車領域是否僅有下半年定價可能出現負數的風險？或者說這不是你們希望看到的？

So we gave guidance for the third quarter with an excellent 17% gross margin. Fourth quarter, we'll talk about that during the next call, Nicole.

因此，我們對第三季的毛利率給出了 17% 的出色預期。第四季度，我們將在下次電話會議中討論這個問題，妮可。

Yeah. I think I would look at it also in saying that while prices is feeling effective, the market, you could also say that costs might have some opportunity, but just not as much as price right now. And so I think, as you said, we talked about the Q3 gets less clear at Q4, but we'll definitely update you in the next call.

是的。我想我也會說，雖然價格感覺有效，但市場，你也可以說成本可能有一些機會，但只是沒有現在的價格那麼多。因此，我認為，正如您所說，我們談到的第三季度在第四季度變得不太清楚，但我們肯定會在下次電話會議中向您通報最新情況。

Got it. Thank you, guys.

知道了。感謝你們。

Kyle Menges, Citigroup.

凱爾門格斯，花旗集團。

Hi. Thank you. I just wanted to clarify the parts growth outlook, 4% in the back half of the year. Should we think about that as a guide for 4% growth in 3Q and then another 4% year-over-year growth in 4Q?

你好。謝謝。我只是想澄清一下零件成長前景，下半年成長 4%。我們是否應該將其視為第三季度增長 4% 和第四季度同比增長 4% 的指導？

That sounds about right.

聽起來不錯。

Okay. And then I'm curious, how much does the opening of some of these distribution centers impact that growth outlook?

好的。然後我很好奇，其中一些配送中心的開設對成長前景有多大影響？

I think they support the growth. It's not if you add a distribution center that it automatically results in parts growth, but it gives us a proximity and capacity for parts and better delivery performance that benefits our dealers and customers. So it definitely supports the growth, but it's not the only thing that drives the parts sales.

我認為他們支持成長。增加配送中心並不會自動導致零件成長，但它為我們提供了更接近的零件和能力以及更好的交付性能，使我們的經銷商和客戶受益。因此，它肯定支持成長，但並不是推動零件銷售的唯一因素。

Yeah. I think exactly what Harrie said, I'd echo the fact that these investments are strategic and long term in thinking. They just build a better support system for our customers and our ability to get same-day deliveries, which contributes to the long-term success and performance of the parts team.

是的。我認為正如哈利所說，我同意這些投資是策略性的、長期的事實。他們只是為我們的客戶建立了更好的支援系統以及我們獲得當日交貨的能力，這有助於零件團隊的長期成功和績效。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團，沃爾夫研究。

Hey. Thanks, guys. So I think you said you were roughly 50% sold out for fourth quarter. Do you have any just perspective, what's normal at this point of the year? Is that 50% about right or not? And then as you start, at some point, selling trucks for '25, any directional color on price for the '25 trucks?

嘿。多謝你們。所以我想你說過第四季大約 50% 的產品已售罄。您有什麼公正的看法嗎？這個50%左右到底對不對？然後，當您在某個時候開始銷售 25 年卡車時，25 年卡車的價格有任何方向性顏色嗎？

Yeah. I mean, 50% full for 4Q, this time of year is extremely normal. So if you went back over the longest term, this is right in the wheelhouse of normal. And that's what we see in the market, too. We see kind of a very normal, successful market where PACCAR can perform well. And I think that it's too early to talk about 2025 pricing.

是的。我的意思是，第四季的利用率達到 50%，每年的這個時候都是非常正常的。因此，如果你回顧最長期的情況，這就是正常情況。這也是我們在市場上看到的。我們看到了一個非常正常、成功的市場，佩卡可以在其中表現良好。我認為現在談論 2025 年定價還為時過早。

Okay. And then just quickly, any color on used truck pricing and how you see that trending in the back half of the year?

好的。然後很快，二手卡車價格有什麼顏色嗎？

Yeah, sure. Harrie?

好，當然。哈里？

Yeah. Used truck prices have come down to more normal levels. And especially in North America, with inventories also at normal levels, we expect that to continue in the second half of this year.

是的。二手卡車價格已降至更正常的水平。尤其是在北美，庫存也處於正常水平，我們預計今年下半年將持續下去。

Meaning you think that they continue to trend lower or you think they sort of stabilize from here?

這意味著您認為它們會繼續走低，或者您認為它們會從這裡開始穩定下來？

I would expect them to stabilize from here for the US and Canada.

我預計美國和加拿大的匯率將從這裡開始穩定下來。

Okay, helpful. Thank you, guys.

好的，有幫助。感謝你們。

Michael Feniger, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

麥可費尼格，美銀美林。

Yes. Hi, everyone. Thanks for squeezing me in.

是的。大家好。謝謝你把我擠進去。

Just, Preston, you mentioned, obviously, rates have been softer on the truckload segment. Contract rates are at low levels. It sounds like when you listen to the public players, there's overcapacity there. I'm just curious, do you feel like that can improve in a quarter or two? Or does that take more time to kind of work through that overcapacity based on your experience with cycles? It sounds like there's confidence on the vocational side into 2025. I'm just curious if we think that softness could kind of bleed into 2025 on that particular side of the market.

只是，普雷斯頓，您提到，顯然，卡車裝載部分的費率一直比較疲軟。合約利率處於較低水準。聽起來，當你聽公共參與者的聲音時，你會發現那裡有產能過剩。我只是好奇，你覺得在一、兩個季度內會有所改善嗎？或者根據您對週期的經驗，這是否需要更多時間來解決產能過剩問題？聽起來職業方面對 2025 年充滿信心。我只是好奇我們是否認為市場的這一特定方面的疲軟可能會滲透到 2025 年。

Yeah, I think we're going to -- Michael, it's a good question. I think we'll have to watch and see what that is. I think it's obviously not that easy to predict it. There's a lot of factors that go into it. So I think that our focus is on making sure that we gain our share of whatever the market size is, which teams are really demonstrating success in doing with great products. But knowing the cadence for when that might turn, I think you'd think in a couple of quarters might be a good way to think of it, plus or minus.

是的，我想我們會——邁克爾，這是一個很好的問題。我想我們必須觀察並看看那是什麼。我認為預測它顯然不是那麼容易的。這裡面有很多因素。因此，我認為我們的重點是確保無論市場規模有多大，我們都能獲得自己的份額，哪些團隊在出色的產品方面確實取得了成功。但知道這種情況何時發生轉變的節奏，我想你會認為在幾個季度內可能是一個很好的思考方式，無論是加還是減。

Fair enough. And Preston, I know there's so many questions on the pre-buy, I mean, you guys are investing and make sure you have capacity. We'll be there. It sounds like others are, too. I'm curious, roughly, when a customer needs to place an order to secure slots ahead of the EPA 27.

很公平。普雷斯頓，我知道關於預購有很多問題，我的意思是，你們正在投資並確保你們有能力。我們會去的。聽起來其他人也是如此。粗略地，我很好奇客戶何時需要下訂單以確保 EPA 27 之前的插槽。

Is there just anything we should be aware of ahead of this emission standards change compared to others? Can fleets wait for the second half of '25 or early '26 to place an order and secure a truck? Or does that start to cut it too close? I'm just curious how we should kind of think about that in the context of other emission change or changes.

與其他排放標準相比，在這次排放標準變化之前，我們是否應該注意什麼？車隊可以等到 25 年下半年或 26 年初下訂單並獲得卡車嗎？或者這開始把它切得太近了？我只是好奇我們應該如何在其他排放變化的背景下思考這一點。

I would look at it and say that we have a long history in the industry of having these emissions changes. And I think when they bring cost into the market, then people want to buy their product sooner. I think we'll see the same kind of approach here. How far forward that'll trend, I think, depends on too many factors to kind of weigh in on it.

我會說，我們在業界進行這些排放變化有著悠久的歷史。我認為當他們將成本帶入市場時，人們就會想更快地購買他們的產品。我想我們會在這裡看到同樣的方法。我認為，這種趨勢會發展到什麼程度，取決於太多因素，無法對其進行權衡。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jeff Kauffman, Vertical Research Partners.

傑夫考夫曼，垂直研究夥伴。

Thank you very much, and good afternoon. A lot of my questions have been -- hey -- asked at this point, so let me dig back into one that Rob Wertheimer asked. The market share gains are fantastic, and you guys have a great product lineup and I know that's driving it. But out of the 380 basis points of market share that you improved, if you had to guess, I mean, how much of it was we're dominant in categories that are outgrowing the market versus we've got new product and we're taking share from other products in the existing market?

非常感謝，下午好。我的許多問題——嘿——在這一點上已經被問到了，所以讓我深入探討一下 Rob Wertheimer 提出的一個問題。市場佔有率的成長是驚人的，而且你們擁有出色的產品陣容，我知道這是推動這一成長的因素。但是，在您提高的380 個基點的市場份額中，如果您必須猜測的話，我的意思是，我們在超出市場增長的類別中佔據主導地位，而我們擁有新產品，我們在其中佔據了主導地位。

Well, that's a fun question, Jeff, and I wish I knew the answer to it. But I would say that the two things you've characterized are probably the dominant characteristics of why the share gain is coming, great products, and then I think are strong sectors where PACCAR's the leader. So I don't know if it's necessary to kind of put percentages on them. I think we just say that it's nice to see both performing so well.

嗯，這是一個有趣的問題，傑夫，我希望我知道答案。但我想說的是，你所描述的兩件事可能是份額增長即將到來的主要特徵，偉大的產品，然後我認為是佩卡處於領先地位的強大部門。所以我不知道是否有必要對它們進行百分比計算。我想我們只是說很高興看到兩人表現如此出色。

I thought I'd ask if you had a view. Well, congratulations. Thank you.

我想我應該問你有沒有意見。好吧，恭喜。謝謝。

Miguel Borrega, BNP Paribas.

米格爾·博雷加，法國巴黎銀行。

Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my question.

你好。大家下午好。感謝您提出我的問題。

The first one, just wondering about the competitive environment in Europe, where the market is obviously weaker. Traditionally, that would lead to some price pressure. Are you seeing any of that today? Are you seeing any attempt of discount in any segment in particular? Do you see weaker from a pricing perspective? That's my first question.

第一個，只是想知道歐洲的競爭環境，那裡的市場明顯較弱。傳統上，這會導致一定的價格壓力。今天你看到這些了嗎？您是否看到任何特定細分市場有任何折扣嘗試？從定價角度來看，您是否認為疲軟？這是我的第一個問題。

The market in Europe is down. And you're right, we're seeing some pricing pressure there. But I think the team does a really nice job in keeping the premium position of the new DAF in Europe, and we'll continue to do so.

歐洲市場低迷。你是對的，我們看到了一些定價壓力。但我認為團隊在保持新款 DAF 在歐洲的優質地位方面做得非常好，我們將繼續這樣做。

Thank you. That's very good. And then secondly, just in terms of the mix, can you give us some color whether the mix from a regional perspective was a positive or negative contributor to the margin, with Brazil rebounding, Europe substantially down, but the US and Canada up? Can you help us understand the different moving parts, some kind of color?

謝謝。這是非常好的。其次，就組合而言，您能否給我們一些說明，從區域角度來看，這種組合對利潤率是積極還是消極的貢獻？您能幫助我們了解不同的運動部件、某種顏色嗎？

I don't think the geographical mix has a big impact on our overall margin. I think all the regions are performing really well at this point in the cycle.

我認為地域組合對我們的整體利潤率沒有太大影響。我認為所有地區在周期的這個階段都表現得非常好。

I think one of the things you can see that's really helpful to us is the strength in South America, and Brazil specifically, another place where market share has grown significantly. So that's grown with good margin performance also. Obviously not as big as the US and Europe, but it is a contributor in a positive way. So I think, as Harrie said, all the teams are doing a good job of keeping the balances right and pleased with the performance it's delivering.

我認為你可以看到對我們真正有幫助的事情之一是南美洲的實力，特別是巴西，這是另一個市場份額大幅增長的地方。因此，該業務的成長也伴隨著良好的利潤率表現。顯然不如美國和歐洲那麼大，但它是一個積極的貢獻者。因此，我認為，正如哈利所說，所有團隊都在保持正確的平衡方面做得很好，並對所提供的性能感到滿意。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Tim Thein, Raymond James.

提姆泰恩，雷蒙詹姆斯。

Great. Thank you. Preston, the first question I had was just how you're thinking about managing this outlook as you think about a softer -- softening in the back half of this year, and potentially that leads into 2025, who knows. But then looking beyond that, we know at some point, assuming legislations go as planned, we're going to be looking at maybe the largest market ever.

偉大的。謝謝。普雷斯頓，我問的第一個問題是，當你考慮到今年下半年的經濟疲軟，並可能持續到 2025 年時，你如何考慮管理這個前景，誰知道呢。但除此之外，我們知道在某個時候，假設立法按計劃進行，我們將看到可能是有史以來最大的市場。

So coming off a period where the supply chain has kind of been whipped around and struggled to ramp up, how do you kind of -- and it's not just a PACCAR question, but how does the industry kind of balance those two forces where you have to respond to conditions in the near term, but with also not jeopardizing yours and the supply chain's ability to ultimately then ramp back up? How do you kind of thread that needle?

因此，在經歷了供應鏈陷入困境並難以加速發展的時期後，您會如何——這不僅僅是一個佩卡問題，而是該行業如何平衡這兩種力量？不會危及您和供應鏈最終恢復的能力？你怎麼穿那根針？

Yeah, Tim, I think it's a very good question. And obviously, you know PACCAR quite well, and our approach is a long-term strategic view of the market. We're in it for the long term. We're here to support our customers. We keep making smart investments which are good for the long term. And so we aren't quite as concerned about an outlook of what the market might be in a quarter.

是的，提姆，我認為這是一個非常好的問題。顯然，您非常了解 PACCAR，我們的方法是對市場的長期策略眼光。我們將長期參與其中。我們隨時為我們的客戶提供支援。我們不斷進行對長期有利的明智投資。因此，我們不太擔心一個季度的市場前景。

We're just going to keep doing the right things and gradually growing our share and increasing the performance of our products for our customers and growing the business. And that's the way it works out for us. And as we started the call with, Harrie mentioned making investments in capital and products that support future growth, and we're going to continue to doing that in the wisest way possible.

我們將繼續做正確的事情，逐步增加我們的份額，為客戶提高產品性能並發展業務。這就是我們的工作方式。當我們開始通話時，哈里提到對支持未來成長的資本和產品進行投資，我們將繼續以最明智的方式這樣做。

Got it. Okay. And then the comment earlier just on the -- looking to the order board and specifically in the fourth quarter, that call it 50% fold that you mentioned, a lot of airtime here on pricing. But I'm just curious in terms of the composition of the backlog, obviously that can influence or have an impact on the price realization.

知道了。好的。然後早些時候的評論是——看看訂單板，特別是在第四季度，你提到的50%折價，這裡有很多關於定價的播出時間。但我只是對積壓訂單的組成感到好奇，顯然這會影響或對價格實現產生影響。

And so again, not specifically, but in terms of the mix between fleet versus retail, any sense for, I mean, obviously a year ago, you couldn't get trucks now, inventories are a bit heavy. So I'm guessing that has flipped. Is that a factor in this price discussion in terms of just the composition of the orders and who the ultimate end buyers are?

再說一次，不是特別具體，但就車隊與零售之間的混合而言，我的意思是，顯然在一年前，你現在買不到卡車，庫存有點重。所以我猜情況已經翻轉了。就訂單組成以及最終買家是誰而言，這是價格討論中的一個因素嗎？

Well, I think that we've kind of hit that a couple of ways in this call, and I would say that the vocational market continues to be solid. And so with that strength, that's good for us. Our inventory at 3.3 months, compared to industry at 3.9, feels quite healthy and appropriate given the share gains we're making.

嗯，我認為我們在這次電話會議中已經從幾個方面觸及了這一點，我想說職業市場仍然穩固。因此，憑藉這種力量，這對我們有好處。與行業 3.9 個月的庫存相比，我們的庫存為 3.3 個月，考慮到我們正在取得的份額增長，感覺相當健康和適當。

And then I think the mixture where truck and other things come in is there's some timing associated with that. We're sitting here in late July now. Fleets tend to enter into this a little bit later over the next couple months. They'll get more clarity on what their capital allocation plans are for the next year, and then we'll see what that balance looks like in the fourth quarter.

然後我認為卡車和其他東西的混合存在與此相關的一些時間。我們現在七月底坐在這裡。艦隊往往會在接下來的幾個月晚些時候進入這個階段。他們將更清楚地了解明年的資本配置計劃，然後我們將看到第四季度的平衡情況。

Got it. Okay. All right. Thank you, Preston.

知道了。好的。好的。謝謝你，普雷斯頓。

There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有什麼補充說明嗎？

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call. And thank you, operator.

我們要感謝大家加入這次電話會議。謝謝你，接線生。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們先生們，佩卡的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。