帕卡 (PCAR) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator instructions) Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time.

早安，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）今天的通話正在錄音，如果有人有異議，請立即掛斷。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hasting, PACCAR's Director, Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我想介紹 PACCAR 投資者關係總監 Ken Hasting 先生。黑斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; Kevin Baney, Executive Vice President; and Brice Poplawski Vice President and Controller.

早安.我們歡迎透過電話和網路廣播收聽的聽眾。我叫肯‧哈斯廷斯 (Ken Hastings)，是 PACCAR 的投資人關係總監。今天早上和我一起的還有執行長 Preston Feight； Harrie Schippers，總裁兼財務長； Kevin Baney，執行副總裁；以及副總裁兼財務總監 Brice Poplawski。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings at the Investor Relations page of paccar.com.

與先前的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有線上的媒體成員都以只聽模式參與。今天提供的某些資訊將具有前瞻性，並涉及可能影響預期結果的風險和不確定性。欲了解更多信息，請參閱 paccar.com 投資者關係頁面上的 SEC 文件。

I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

現在我想介紹普雷斯頓費特。

Thanks Ken. Good morning, everyone. First, I'd like to congratulate Harrie Schippers on his upcoming retirement after a wonderful 39-year career at PACCAR. We all miss him. And we wish him all the best on the next chapter in his life.

謝謝肯。大家早安。首先，我要祝賀哈里·希珀斯 (Harrie Schippers) 在 PACCAR 度過了 39 年輝煌的職業生涯後即將退休。我們都很想念他。我們祝福他在人生的新篇章中一切順利。

Congratulations to Kevin Baney, our Executive Vice President, who's been responsible for DAF Trucks and will now become responsible for PACCAR Financial Services. Kevin will also work with Ken on Investor Relations. And congratulations to Brice, who has been promoted to PACCAR's Senior Vice President and CFO, reporting directly to me.

恭喜我們的執行副總裁 Kevin Baney，他之前負責 DAF Trucks，現在將負責 PACCAR Financial Services。Kevin 也將與 Ken 合作處理投資者關係。恭喜布萊斯晉升為 PACCAR 資深副總裁兼財務長，直接向我報告工作。

I'd like to thank PACCAR's outstanding employees who did an excellent job providing our customers with the highest quality trucks and transportation solutions in the industry. PACCAR achieved good revenues and net income in the first quarter including record revenues at PACCAR Parts, good performance by the truck divisions and strong financial services results. PACCAR achieved revenues of $7.4 billion and adjusted net income of $770 million.

我要感謝 PACCAR 的傑出員工，他們出色地為我們的客戶提供了業內最高品質的卡車和運輸解決方案。PACCAR 在第一季取得了良好的收入和淨收入，其中包括 PACCAR 零件創紀錄的收入、卡車部門的良好表現以及強勁的金融服務業績。PACCAR 實現營收 74 億美元，調整後淨收入 7.7 億美元。

The PACCAR Parts achieved record quarterly revenues of $1.7 billion and quarterly pretax income of $427 million. We're pleased with the continued growth at PACCAR Parts after a record-setting 2024. PACCAR Financial had a very good quarter, achieving pretax income of $121 million to 6% higher than the $114 million in the first quarter of last year. We estimate this year's US and Canadian Class 8 market to be in a range of 235,000 to 265,000 trucks.

PACCAR 零件部門實現了創紀錄的 17 億美元季度營收和 4.27 億美元的季度稅前收入。我們很高興看到 PACCAR Parts 在 2024 年創下紀錄後繼續成長。PACCAR Financial 本季表現非常出色，稅前收入達到 1.21 億美元，較去年第一季的 1.14 億美元成長 6%。我們估計今年美國和加拿大 8 級卡車市場銷量將在 235,000 至 265,000 輛之間。

The North American truck market is being affected by uncertain economic conditions and the overall impact of new tariffs. In Europe, DAFs premium aerodynamic trucks provide customers with the latest technology and the best operating efficiency. We project the 2025 European above 16-tonne market to be in the range of 270,000 to 300,000 trucks.

北美卡車市場正受到不確定的經濟狀況和新關稅的整體影響。在歐洲，DAF的高端空氣動力學卡車為客戶提供最新的技術和最佳的營運效率。我們預計，2025 年歐洲 16 噸以上卡車市場規模將達到 27 萬至 30 萬輛。

This year, South American above 16-tonne truck market where DAF trucks are highly desired by our customers is expected to be in a range of 100,000 to 110,000 vehicles. PACCAR delivered 40,100 trucks during the first quarter, and anticipate delivering 37,000 to 39,000 trucks in the second quarter.

今年，南美洲16噸以上卡車市場（其中DAF卡車深受顧客歡迎）的銷售量預計將在10萬至11萬輛之間。PACCAR 第一季交付了 40,100 輛卡車，預計第二季交付 37,000 至 39,000 輛卡車。

PACCAR's truck parts and other gross margins were 14.8% in the first quarter as economic uncertainties and tariffs began affecting input costs and truck pricing. With the full quarter of current tariff-related impacts, we anticipate second quarter margins could be in a range of 13% to 14%. Margins could improve considerably depending on how the announced truck tariff policy investigation progresses.

由於經濟不確定性和關稅開始影響投入成本和卡車定價，PACCAR 的卡車零件和其他毛利率在第一季為 14.8%。考慮到目前整個季度的關稅相關影響，我們預計第二季的利潤率可能在 13% 至 14% 之間。利潤率可能會大幅提高，具體取決於宣布的卡車關稅政策調查的進展。

In the second half of the year, we anticipate increased customer demand as policy and emissions regulations become more stable. PACCAR's industry-leading trucks, expanding parts business, best-in-class financial services and advanced technology strategy, position the company well for an excellent future. Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial Services and other business highlights.

隨著政策和排放法規變得更加穩定，我們預計下半年客戶需求將會增加。PACCAR 業界領先的卡車、不斷擴大的零件業務、一流的金融服務和先進的技術策略，為公司美好的未來奠定了良好的基礎。Harrie Schippers 現在將提供有關 PACCAR 零件、PACCAR 金融服務和其他業務亮點的最新資訊。

Harrie, over to you one last time.

哈里，最後一次把話交給你了。

Preston. PACCAR's first quarter adjusted net income of $770 million excludes a $265 million after-tax provision related to EU civil litigation settlements. PACCAR is making good progress on resolving the civil litigation. The company has settled with the majority of claimants and continues to pursue appropriate resolutions. PACCAR's Part achieved record revenues in the first quarter, with excellent gross margins of 30.7%.

普雷斯頓。PACCAR 第一季調整後淨收入為 7.7 億美元，不包括與歐盟民事訴訟和解相關的 2.65 億美元稅後準備金。PACCAR 在解決民事訴訟方面取得了良好進展。該公司已與大多數索賠人達成和解，並繼續尋求適當的解決方案。PACCAR 旗下部門第一季營收創歷史新高，毛利率高達 30.7%。

We estimate part sales to grow by 2% to 4% in the second quarter and for the full year. PACCAR's Parts is beginning to benefit from the life data of the 600,000 connected Genworth (inaudible) and DAF trucks in operation. This connectivity enhances our customers' operational efficiency, and vehicle uptime. Backup part has 20 parts distribution centers worldwide and continues to expand its global distribution network.

我們預計第二季和全年零件銷售額將成長 2% 至 4%。PACCAR 的零件部門開始從 60 萬輛連網的 Genworth（聽不清楚）和 DAF 卡車的生命數據中受益。這種連接提高了我們客戶的營運效率和車輛正常運行時間。Backup part 在全球擁有 20 個零件分銷中心，並持續擴大其全球分銷網絡。

PACCAR's Financial Services pretax income was a robust $121 million compared to $114 million a year earlier. This reflects solid portfolio growth and continued strong credit quality. Baker Financial operates merging used truck centers around the world to support the sale of premium Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF used trucks and is building a new used truck center in Warsaw, Poland this year.

PACCAR 金融服務稅前收入達到了 1.21 億美元，而去年同期為 1.14 億美元。這反映了穩健的投資組合成長和持續強勁的信貸品質。Baker Financial 在世界各地經營合併二手卡車中心，以支援優質 Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 二手卡車的銷售，並於今年在波蘭華沙建立一個新的二手卡車中心。

Used truck demand and pricing improved in the first quarter, and we expect it to further improve throughout the year. Similar to PACCAR's Parts, PACCAR's Financial provides steady profitability during all phases of the business cycle.

第一季二手卡車的需求和價格有所改善，我們預計全年將進一步改善。與 PACCAR'S Parts 類似，PACCAR'S Financial 在商業週期的所有階段都提供穩定的獲利能力。

In 2025, we're planning capital investments in the range of $700 million to $800 million, and R&D expenses in the range of $450 million to $480 million, as we continue to invest in key technology and innovation projects. These include next-generation powertrains advanced driver assistance systems and indicated connected vehicle services.

2025年，我們計畫資本投資在7億至8億美元之間，研發費用在4.5億至4.8億美元之間，我們將繼續投資於關鍵技術和創新項目。其中包括下一代動力系統、先進的駕駛輔助系統和指示連網汽車服務。

PACCAR is also investing in manufacturing capacity to support future long-term growth and our customers' success. This includes an expansion of the DA factory in Brazil, construction of a new arranging remanufacturing facility in Columbus, Mississippi and an expansion of the Packer Technical Center in Washington State.

PACCAR 也投資於製造能力，以支持未來的長期成長和客戶的成功。其中包括擴建位於巴西的 DA 工廠、在密西西比州哥倫布市建造新的安排再製造工廠以及擴建位於華盛頓州的 Packer 技術中心。

As Preston noted, this is my last earnings conference call. PACCAR is an exceptional company, and I want to thank all my colleagues to us and President for making it such a wonderful place to have a career. We're pleased to answer your questions.

正如普雷斯頓所說，這是我最後一次收益電話會議。PACCAR 是一家卓越的公司，我要感謝我的所有同事和總裁，是他們讓 PACCAR 成為了我職業生涯中如此美好的地方。我們很高興回答您的問題。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員指示）

Chad Dillard, Bernstein.

查德·迪拉德，伯恩斯坦。

Hi, good morning guys.

大家早安。

Hey, Chad.

嘿，查德。

So I wanted to dig a little bit more into your guidance for gross margins. I was hoping you could tease out -- just how much are you embedding in terms of incremental tariff costs and how much you expect to pass through to customers? And then just talk through how you're thinking about gross margins for the balance of the year, please?

所以我想更深入地了解您對毛利率的指導。我希望您能弄清楚——您在增量關稅成本方面到底嵌入了多少，以及您預計會將多少轉嫁給客戶？然後請您談談您對今年剩餘時間的毛利率有何看法？

Yeah, Chad, as we shared in our comments, it's a little bit uncertain out there right now in terms of what the tariff policies will look like. You may or may not be following how they apply to truck specifically, but last week, the government announced a Section 232 investigation into tariffs for medium and heavy-duty trucks to value what their policies would be.

是的，查德，正如我們在評論中分享的那樣，目前關稅政策的具體內容還有點不確定。您可能關注或不關注它們如何具體應用於卡車，但上週，政府宣布對中型和重型卡車的關稅進行第 232 條調查，以評估其政策。

There's an open comment period through the middle of May and then they haven't declared when they would make any kind of revision to those policies, but they're under review, which could have a meaningful impact to what the impact is on a per truck basis. And obviously, that's an input cost to us right now. So it could have a shaping form factor for us in Q2 and beyond.

五月中旬之前有一個公開評論期，之後他們還沒有宣布何時對這些政策做出任何修改，但這些政策正在接受審查，這可能會對每輛卡車的影響產生重大影響。顯然，這對我們來說是目前的投入成本。因此，它可能會對我們在第二季及以後產生影響。

And kind of hard to actually know what the exact numbers are going to be because of that uncertainty. But we think that right now, we are an American company that builds our trucks in the markets for the markets. So our teams in Denton and Chillicothe have done a great job building trucks for us for the US markets, but there are components that come into those factories from our suppliers, from other countries. And so we don't know how they would be affected.

由於這種不確定性，實際上很難知道確切的數字是多少。但我們認為，目前我們是一家美國公司，我們在市場上為市場製造卡車。因此，我們在丹頓和奇利科西的團隊在為美國市場製造卡車方面做得非常出色，但這些工廠的零件來自我們的供應商，來自其他國家。所以我們不知道他們會受到怎樣的影響。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just over to the vocation side of your business. I know that you guys tend to over-index to that part of the market. I would just be curious on how you're thinking about contribution from there as you go through the balance of the year?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後就轉到您的業務的職業方面。我知道你們傾向於過度關注該部分市場。我只是好奇，在度過今年的剩餘時間時，您如何考慮從那裡做出貢獻？

Yes. It's still a solid part of our business right now. I mean the vocational market is reasonable. And so it feels like that will continue to be a strength throughout the year. We'll see how that plays. The LTL market still also feels stable. And I think everybody kind of is aware that the truckload carriers are still under some pressure. And so that pressure is something that we feel in the market estimations for the year.

是的。現在它仍然是我們業務的重要組成部分。我的意思是職業市場是合理的。因此感覺這將繼續成為全年的一大優勢。我們將看看結果如何。零擔市場仍維持穩定。我想每個人都意識到卡車運輸商仍然面臨一些壓力。因此，我們在對今年的市場預測中感受到了這種壓力。

Okay, thanks I'll pass it on.

好的，謝謝，我會傳達的。

Cool. Have a good day.

涼爽的。祝你有美好的一天。

Jamie Cook, Truist.

傑米·庫克（Jamie Cook），Truist。

Hi, good morning. I guess if you could just unpack a little further the margin disappointment relative to -- I mean, your deliveries were essentially in line with expectations. The margins were later relative to your guide. I know you talked about input costs and truck pricing, if you can unpack that more and let us know what price cost was for both truck and parts? I guess that's my first question.

嗨，早安。我想，如果您能進一步解釋一下利潤率令人失望的原因——我的意思是，您的交付量基本上符合預期。邊距稍後會與您的指南相關。我知道您談到了投入成本和卡車定價，您能否進一步闡述這一點並讓我們知道卡車和零件的價格成本是多少？我想這是我的第一個問題。

And then next question. Just your comfort level with inventory levels some of the industry experts, the inventory levels are really elevated. And I'm wondering if that's a concern in years how that impacts orders? And if you could comment on your order specifically.

接下來是下一個問題。您對庫存水準的滿意程度，一些行業專家認為，庫存水準確實提高了。我想知道這是否會成為未來幾年的擔憂，以及這會對訂單產生什麼影響？您是否可以具體評論一下您的訂單？

And then last, congratulations to Harrie. Thank you for all your help throughout the years. And congrats Brice, look forward to working with you. Thanks.

最後，祝賀哈利。感謝您多年來的幫助。恭喜 Brice，期待與您合作。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, Jamie, it's nice to recognize Harrie will. We're all going to miss him greatly, yes, he is a good guy.

嗯，傑米，很高興認識哈里威爾。我們都會非常想念他，是的，他是個好人。

To pick up on your first question, I mean, I think we try to -- I think your words unpack a little bit further. If I think about the margin, I think cost being up 1% and price being relatively flat. And that's really a factor of the tariff impacts that we saw, but they weren't a full quarter of impact of those tariffs. That's the easiest way to think about the delta of what we shared previously and what we experienced today.

回答你的第一個問題，我的意思是，我認為我們嘗試——我認為你的話更能說明問題。如果我考慮利潤，我認為成本會上漲 1%，而價格會相對持平。這確實是我們看到的關稅影響的一個因素，但這並不是關稅影響的整個季度。這是思考我們之前分享的內容和今天所經歷的內容之間的差異的最簡單的方法。

And now what we see coming into a look for Q2 is we took the conservative view we shared with you is to say that if there's a full quarter of tariff impacts that could look like this. Now life isn't quite that straightforward because we'll also be pricing those tariffs into our customers' trucks as we go along, but we do have the backlog that we have to manage, and we can't just pass that along as we have relationships with people.

現在，我們對第二季度的展望是，我們採取了與大家分享的保守觀點，即如果整個季度的關稅影響可能是這樣的。現在，情況就沒那麼簡單了，因為我們還要將這些關稅計入客戶的卡車價格，但我們確實有需要管理的積壓訂單，我們不能僅僅透過與客戶建立關係來將其轉嫁出去。

So there's a partial pass along, and we're working with our suppliers on that as well. So it's kind of a few inputs and a few outputs out of this. And we see that over time, we'll be adjusting our pricing to match the tariffs, but it takes some time to do that or as we mentioned, the tariffs might change, and that would reduce the need to make those adjustments.

因此，這是一種部分傳遞，我們也正在與供應商就此展開合作。因此，這就像一些輸入和一些輸出。我們看到，隨著時間的推移，我們將調整我們的定價以適應關稅，但這需要一些時間，或者正如我們所提到的，關稅可能會發生變化，這將減少進行這些調整的需要。

Did you guys put through the 4% to 7% that's out there -- sorry, go ahead. Go ahead.

你們有沒有考慮過那裡的 4% 到 7% — — 抱歉，請繼續。前進。

Go ahead, Jamie.

繼續吧，傑米。

No, I was just going to say a follow-up. There's been talk that the industry has put through an incremental, I think, 4% to 7% price increase at the end of the first quarter, wondering if you were in if you also were putting price increases through at that level? And then, sorry, you can answer after that, the question on the elevated inventories.

不，我只是想說一個後續問題。有傳言稱，該行業在第一季末已經經歷了一次漸進式的價格上漲，我認為是 4% 到 7%，想知道如果您當時在場，是否也經歷了同樣幅度的價格上漲？然後，抱歉，您可以在此之後回答有關庫存增加的問題。

Yeah, for sure. Yeah, your numbers are about the right numbers to think about in terms of what's been passed along. You just have to get into the sequencing of when you announce a price increase when you're going to build it what your backlog was that already was behind that.

是的，當然。是的，從傳遞的訊息來看，您的數字是正確的。您只需要在宣布漲價時確定先後順序，並了解何時開始生產，以及已經落後的積壓訂單是什麼。

So you don't affect all of that, and that's the puts and takes of that. If I switch over to your question on inventory levels, we look at the inventory for Class 8 for the industry is around 4 months and we're at 3.1 months.

所以你不會影響這一切，這就是它的利弊。如果我轉到關於庫存水準的問題，我們會發現該行業的第 8 類庫存約為 4 個月，而我們的庫存為 3.1 個月。

And then I think back to the earlier conversation we had with Chad, we have a lot of vocational trucks. So we're probably actually lighter on a like-for-like comparison because locational trucks take a longer time to get a body put on and put back into service or put into service. So we feel pretty comfortable with our three months of retail inventory.

然後我回想起我們之前與查德的談話，我們有很多職業卡車。因此，在同類比較中，我們可能實際上更輕鬆，因為定位卡車需要更長的時間才能將車身裝上並重新投入使用或投入使用。因此，我們對三個月的零售庫存感到非常滿意。

Was very helpful Great, have a good day.

非常有幫助，祝你有美好的一天。

Michael Feniger, Bank of America.

美國銀行的麥可費尼格。

Thank you, thanks guys for taking my question. Just on the EPA emissions change, if there is a change in 2017, how does that inform your view in terms of how you guys are looking at your cost as the truck markets soft. So is this a time when you guys normally might pull back more costs to protect margins? Or is there an eye on 2026 where we -- if there is a view that the EPA 27 is still intact, that we have to build towards that. So just kind of curious how that also is shaping your guys' kind of view as you kind of go through 2025?

謝謝大家回答我的問題。就 EPA 排放量變化而言，如果 2017 年發生變化，那麼在卡車市場疲軟的情況下，這對您如何看待成本有何影響？那麼，在這個時候，你們通常會削減更多成本來保護利潤嗎？或者我們是否著眼於 2026 年——如果認為 EPA 27 仍然完好無損，那麼我們就必須朝著這個目標努力。所以我只是有點好奇，當你們展望 2025 年時，這會如何影響你們的觀點？

Yeah, great conversation for us to have together. I think as we think about the regulatory standards, there's a lot that gets mixed into that conversation. And it's really not one conversation. It's really a couple of parts to that. One is greenhouse gas or CO2 reductions, which have a standard, which is intended to come into effect in 2027. So that's where you see an ACT impact clean truck impact.

是的，我們之間的談話非常愉快。我認為，當我們考慮監管標準時，會有很多內容混雜到討論中。這其實不是一次對話。這實際上由幾個部分組成。一是溫室氣體或二氧化碳減排，這有一個標準，預計2027年生效。這就是您所看到的 ACT 對清潔卡車的影響。

The EPA has stated that they intend to look at those standards and potentially not implement GHG Phase II in 2027. That would mean the number of electric vehicles, the kind of CO2 reductions that come with that could be adjusted. That's not what they've done yet, but that's what they've made a stated intent to address. Those changes really don't have a significant input cost change for us in terms of vehicle costs.

美國環保署表示，他們打算研究這些標準，並可能在 2027 年不實施溫室氣體第二階段。這意味著電動車的數量以及隨之而來的二氧化碳減排量可以進行調整。他們還沒有這樣做，但他們已經明確表示要解決這個問題。就車輛成本而言，這些變化實際上不會為我們的投入成本帶來重大變化。

So the trucks that are GHG compliant aren't -- don't look at like the diesel trucks that are GHG compliant don't have a real different cost structure in two -- so if those changes are made, there might just be less requirements for EVs made. That's a part one of this regulatory discussion.

因此，符合溫室氣體排放標準的卡車——不要看像符合溫室氣體排放標準的柴油卡車在成本結構上沒有真正的不同——所以如果做出這些改變，對電動車的要求可能會減少。這是監管討論的第一部分。

The part two of the regulatory discussion is around NOx and the NOx standards which are in place call for a reduction from today's 200-milligram engines down to a 35-milligram engine. That's the law that's in place today. If that law enacts then cost of the vehicles will go up significantly, because there'll be additional hardware required to meet those NOx levels.

監管討論的第二部分圍繞著氮氧化物展開，現行的氮氧化物標準要求將引擎的氮氧化物排放量從目前的 200 毫克減少到 35 毫克。這就是今天生效的法律。如果該法律頒布，那麼車輛的成本將大幅上升，因為需要額外的硬體來滿足 NOx 水平。

The government has said they intend to look at that and consider whether that will stay at 200 milligrams -- or excuse me, move to 335 milligrams or stay at today's 200 milligrams. And that's less clear that there would be really an adjustment there. The good thing for PACCAR is we've made great investments in clean diesel technology along the way, never adjusted from that, as we've shared with you over the years. And so we're prepared for any of these situations that come up.

政府表示，他們打算研究這個問題，並考慮是否將標準保持在 200 毫克——或者不好意思，提高到 335 毫克，或保持在今天的 200 毫克。但那裡是否真的會進行調整則不太清楚。對於 PACCAR 來說，好消息是，我們一直在清潔柴油技術方面進行大量投資，並且從未進行過調整，正如我們多年來與大家分享的那樣。因此，我們已經做好了應對任何可能出現的情況的準備。

We've got great engines for today that meet the NOx standard at today's cost structure. We've got new engines designed and running that can meet the 35-milligram NOx standard and they come with (inaudible) cost. So whichever way the standards go, we'll be in a very good position to meet those for our customers.

我們現在已經擁有符合當今成本結構要求的優質引擎。我們設計並運行了新的發動機，可以滿足 35 毫克 NOx 標準，但它們的成本是（聽不清楚的）。因此，無論標準如何變化，我們都將處於非常有利的位置，以滿足客戶的要求。

And of course, what the government does will inform the market's reaction. And so what we look at is a today's numbers, or 35 milligrams that would drive up the cost of a product in 2027, and we're prepared for that. If it changes, we'll be in good shape, too.

當然，政府的舉動將影響市場的反應。因此，我們根據今天的數字來看，35毫克將會推高2027年產品的成本，我們已經準備好了。如果它發生變化，我們也會處於良好狀態。

Understood. If I could just -- my follow-up, just if you could kind of dive into the parts side. It seems like the growth was a little slower than we expected. Margins, just -- are we starting to kind of normalize here? What do you kind of see when we think of the parts margins on a year-over-year sequential basis, how we kind of think about that profitability anything you just kind of think about that as we're thinking for the full year and into Q2, but for 2025? Thank you.

明白了。如果我可以的話 - 我的後續問題，如果您可以深入了解零件方面的話。看起來成長比我們預期的要慢一些。利潤率，只是──我們在這裡開始正常化了嗎？當我們考慮零件利潤率與去年同期相比如何時，您會看到什麼？我們如何看待獲利能力？當我們考慮全年和第二季時，您是如何看待獲利能力的？但對於 2025 年來說，您是如何看待獲利能力的呢？謝謝。

We were very proud of the parts team that they've been able to grow part sales in the first quarter than in a soft market for parts and service. And the margin levels of above 30%. That's a pretty good margin for PACCAR Parts. And we think in there's an amazing job getting solid good margins out of a soft market these days. And we expect parts to continue that growth throughout the year at levels between 2% and 4%.

我們為零件團隊感到非常自豪，他們能夠在第一季實現零件銷售額的成長，而零件和服務市場則較為疲軟。且利潤率水準在30%以上。對於 PACCAR Parts 來說，這是一個相當不錯的利潤。我們認為，在如今疲軟的市場中獲得豐厚的利潤是一項了不起的工作。我們預計部分地區全年將持續維持 2% 至 4% 之間的成長。

And I would add to everything Harrie said makes perfect sense, and I'd say he shared in his opening comments, the number of connected vehicles we have now and the number of connected vehicles and the technology that our parts team is bringing gives us a great confidence that parts will continue to grow over the short, medium and long term at good levels.

我想補充一點，哈里說的一切都很有道理，而且他在開場白中也分享了這一點，我們現在擁有的聯網汽車數量以及我們的零件團隊帶來的聯網汽車技術讓我們非常有信心，零件將在短期、中期和長期內繼續保持良好的增長水平。

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞。

Hey, good morning to all and congrats to Kevin on the new role. And Harrie, what an exemplary career at PACCAR? And I will definitely miss you, but best of luck. I'm sure great things await you.

嘿，大家早上好，祝賀凱文獲得新職位。哈里，你在 PACCAR 的職業生涯多麼輝煌？我肯定會想念你，但祝你好運。我確信會有偉大的事在等著你。

So I wanted to ask a question on tariffs again. I just wanted to clarify, and I appreciate the situation is very fluid, but it seems like there aren't any potential Section 232 tariffs embedded in the second quarter gross margin guide. Is that correct?

所以我想再問一個有關關稅的問題。我只是想澄清一下，我知道情況非常不穩定，但第二季的毛利率指南中似乎沒有包含任何潛在的第 232 條關稅。對嗎？

And if so, what's essentially embedded in that 13% to 14%. Does it include the now post tariffs, which could become effective at any point next month. So what's really in that 13% to 14% guide?

如果是這樣，那麼這 13% 到 14% 中究竟包含什麼呢？它是否包括現在的後關稅，該關稅可能在下個月的任何時候生效。那麼 13% 至 14% 的指導究竟包含什麼內容呢？

13% to 14% includes tariffs as they are today, is the impact of what's going on there. So that's as it is, as the rules are today, that's what we've given you. The Section 232 adjustments could include impact on foreign-made trucks. It could include impact on components. It could also include exemptions on components for US-made trucks. None of that is clear. And so we have to wait and see what that looks like.

13% 到 14% 包括目前的關稅，這是那裡發生的事情的影響。事實就是這樣，今天的規則就是這樣，這就是我們給你的。第 232 條的調整可能會對外國製造的卡車產生影響。它可能包括對組件的影響。它還可能包括對美國製造的卡車零件的豁免。這一切都不清楚。所以我們必須拭目以待，看看它會是什麼樣子。

But I think it's okay to summarize that the impact overall -- the overall impact would be less unfavorable or even favorable. Is that --

但我認為可以總結一下整體影響——整體影響不會那麼不利，甚至是有利的。那是嗎--

I think that's a fair way to say and that's kind of -- we tried to give you that conservative look at the quarter with the standards of today because we know what we know. And if the rules change, then we think that if anything, it should be upside for us.

我認為這是一種公平的說法，而且我們試圖以今天的標準來保守地看待本季度，因為我們知道我們所知道的。如果規則發生變化，我們認為，如果有的話，這對我們來說應該是有利的。

Understood. That's very helpful. And then in the same thread, I wanted to understand the impact -- potential impact of tax on the parts business. I know that you don't manufacture parts yourself, but any color on what mix of parts come into the US from the outside? And how much is locally sourced and whether you have to take pricing to offset some of these tariff headwinds on the cost of procurement.

明白了。這非常有幫助。然後在同一個主題中，我想了解稅收對零件業務的潛在影響。我知道你們自己不生產零件，但是你們知道從外面進入美國的零件種類有哪些嗎？以及有多少是本地採購的，以及是否必須採取定價來抵消部分關稅對採購成本的不利影響。

Yeah.

是的。

President will continue. But for parts, we don't have a backlog. So if we get cost increases for parts, it's much easier to pass those on with almost immediate effect. So it has less of a margin impact there. There is parts that are sourced and are impacted by tariffs, but we're working with the suppliers. And if and when those costs for us would go up, we would increase prices accordingly.

總統將繼續。但零件，我們沒有積壓。因此，如果零件成本增加，我們幾乎可以立即將其轉嫁出去。因此，它對利潤的影響較小。有些零件的採購受到關稅的影響，但我們正在與供應商合作。如果我們的成本上升，我們就會相應提高價格。

Yeah, and just to give you a ballpark, I'd say, less than half of our purchases are really from maybe country of origin outside the US parts it's a little bit higher percentage than nominal, but it's not the majority. Because as you said, we actually do make some of our parts, right? The proprietary part are, in many cases, things we do make for ourselves and do get made in America.

是的，只是為了給你一個大概的數字，我想說，我們購買的商品中實際上只有不到一半來自美國以外的原產國，這個比例比名義上的要高一點，但不是大多數。因為正如你所說，我們確實製造了一些零件，對嗎？在很多情況下，專有部分是我們自己製造的並且在美國製造的東西。

Understood. That's very helpful.

明白了。這非常有幫助。

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

Rob Wertheimer，Melius Research。

Thank you. My first question is on the Section 232 tariff truck policy investigation. Is the potential positive there a relative one because you make more trucks in the US, I suppose, than some of your competitors? Or is it more of an industry comment you were making where they could kind of offset some of the hit to purchase parts from overseas?

謝謝。我的第一個問題是關於第 232 條關稅卡車政策調查。我認為，由於你們在美國生產的卡車比一些競爭對手要多，因此潛在的正面因素是否是相對的？或者您所說的更多的是行業評論，即他們可以通過從海外購買零件來抵消部分衝擊？

I think it could be both, Rob. I think yours is an astute observation, but I think it could be both. It could be a relative and it could be an absolute.

我認為兩者都有可能，羅布。我認為你的觀察很敏銳，但我認為兩者可能都有。它可以是相對的，也可以是絕對的。

Okay, perfect. And the second one is going to be a little bit general. But you mentioned you have the truck backlog, you're not repricing those instantly for tariffs. I'm a little bit curious how are you managing through this fairly dynamic environment?

好的，完美。第二個問題會比較籠統。但您提到您有卡車積壓，您不會立即根據關稅重新定價。我有點好奇您是如何應對這種相當動態的環境的？

I mean when you know the tariff, are you pricing that immediately into current orders? Or do you not because the tariff could change by the time the truck gets made and delivered. And a little bit, if you're willing the same question on, do you anticipate any margin impacts on -- from production variances from supply chain from when you order and when you choose to order depending on tariff I mean, is that a potential margin risk towards the end of the year or not?

我的意思是，當您知道關稅時，您會立即將其計入當前訂單的價格嗎？或者你不這樣做，因為卡車製造和交付時關稅可能會改變。還有一點，如果您願意問同樣的問題，您是否預計會對利潤產生任何影響 - 從您訂購時到您選擇訂購時（取決於關稅）的供應鏈生產差異，我的意思是，這是否會對年底的利潤產生潛在的風險？

If I don't get back on the line, I'd just like to say, Harrie, congratulations. It's been a pleasure talking with you over the years, and thank you for everything.

如果我不能回到電話線上，我只想說，哈里，恭喜你。多年來我很榮幸與您交談，感謝您所做的一切。

Thanks, Bob.

謝謝，鮑伯。

Yeah, I think that all the things you said in terms of the pricing structures and the timing for them are all through, but there's not a single 30-second answer I could give you about how they affect things. There are times when we have a backlog, we're protecting. There's times when component prices are coming in.

是的，我認為您所說的有關定價結構和時間安排的所有內容都很完整，但我無法在 30 秒內給您一個關於它們如何影響事物的答案。有時我們會遇到積壓的情況，我們會進行保護。有時零件價格會上漲。

There's times when we know what they're going to be. There's times when it's a little bit uncertain. We're still defining HTS codes, which is what the government defines the tariff structures around, and so we're deciding whether those specific components or subassemblies are USMCA compliant. That's having some impact. So I really can't give you a better answer than it's pretty dynamic right now.

有時候我們知道它們會是什麼。有時候情況有點不確定。我們仍在定義 HTS 代碼，這是政府定義關稅結構的基礎，因此我們正在決定這些特定組件或子組件是否符合 USMCA 標準。這確實產生了一些影響。因此，我真的無法給你一個比現在更動態的更好的答案。

And the beautiful thing about being part of this company is having great people who are thinking about it every day, and we work closely with our suppliers on this. I think collaboratively with our suppliers, our dealers, our customers and this great team we feel like we've got our fingers really on the pulse of it and are right on top of it.

成為這家公司的一員的美妙之處在於，我們擁有優秀的員工，他們每天都在思考這個問題，而且我們與供應商就此展開密切合作。我認為，透過與我們的供應商、經銷商、客戶和這個優秀的團隊合作，我們感覺自己真正掌握了形勢，並且處於領先地位。

Understood thank you.

明白了謝謝。

Steve Volkmann, Jefferies.

史蒂夫‧福克曼，傑富瑞集團。

Thank you very much. My congratulations as well, Harrie. You're going to miss this, believe it or not. And my question is -- I can see you shaking your head there. Anyway --

非常感謝。我也要向你表示祝賀，哈利。不管你信不信，你都會錯過這個。我的問題是──我看到你搖頭。反正--

I know I will miss this --

我知道我會想念這個--

Well, anyway, I'm curious -- I know there's a lot of moving pieces on the tariffs here. Assuming nothing changes on 232, they just -- that doesn't happen what's in place today stands. Is it reasonable to assume that gross margins will be the lowest of the year in the second quarter and then sort of improve as the year progresses as pricing comes in?

好吧，無論如何，我很好奇——我知道這裡的關稅有很多變化。假設 232 沒有任何變化，那麼他們只是——那不會發生，今天的現狀仍然有效。是否可以合理地假設，毛利率將在第二季度達到今年最低水平，然後隨著價格的上漲而改善？

Well, like you know we're in a really uncertain economic time and tariff time. So guiding the second quarter is something more than even a lot of people are doing, asking me to go out into Q3 and Q4 and forecast that. I'm very reluctant to that.

嗯，正如你所知，我們正處於一個非常不確定的經濟時期和關稅時期。因此，指導第二季度比許多人做的還要多，要求我對第三季和第四季進行預測。我對此非常不情願。

We do feel like we have a great strategy in place and that the more time passes than we're likely are to get that in place. And we do feel like the market will strengthen as we get into the second half of the year. So if you want to suppose that into improving margins, I think that's a fair supposition.

我們確實覺得我們已經制定了一個很好的策略，而且隨著時間的推移，我們很可能會實現這個策略。我們確實感覺到，進入下半年，市場將會走強。因此，如果您想假設這會提高利潤率，我認為這是一個合理的假設。

Building our trucks in the US for the US at the end of the day, that should be a good thing for us.

從根本上來說，在美國為美國製造卡車對我們來說應該是一件好事。

Okay. And then I don't know if Preston, this is what you were thinking, but I'm curious how you're thinking about the potential for prebuys. And now it feels like there could be two flavors here. One, ahead of any emission changes. I think we've talked about that on previous calls.

好的。然後我不知道普雷斯頓，這是不是你所想的，但我很好奇你是如何看待預購的潛力的。現在感覺這裡可能有兩種口味。一、領先任何排放變化。我想我們在之前的通話中已經討論過這個問題。

I'm curious for an updated thought there. But we might also see some prebuys if this 232 thing comes in and people want to buy the pre-tariff trucks off the lot, maybe, I don't know, just any thoughts in that direction would be great.

我很好奇那裡的最新想法。但是，如果這 232 東西進來並且人們想要購買關稅前的卡車，我們也可能會看到一些預購，也許，我不知道，任何朝這個方向的想法都會很棒。

I don't really see that commentary on the Section 232, the buying the trucks off a lot because we're really building trucks for customers, so they have a customer name on them. And the consideration of Section 232 is whether there would be tariffs applied to trucks built outside of the US and then how they would treat components that are coming into trucks that are built in the US.

我真的沒有看到關於第 232 條的評論，大量購買卡車，因為我們實際上是為客戶製造卡車，所以卡車上有客戶的名字。第 232 條的考慮因素是是否會對美國境外生產的卡車徵收關稅，以及他們將如何處理在美國生產的卡車的零件。

So I don't really think there's kind of a pre-buy scenario around tariffs that I would envision I would say that regarding the regulatory standards, as we shared, if there is a current NOx standard implemented or if there's a NOx standard change implemented in 2027.

因此，我並不認為我設想的關稅預購方案會是怎樣的，我想說的是，關於監管標準，正如我們所分享的，如果實施了當前的 NOx 標準，或者在 2027 年實施了 NOx 標準變更。

So a move from 200-milligram engines to 35-milligram million, that will affect hardware on trucks, which will drive up costs on trucks. And so that could drive customer buying patterns into 2026.

因此，從 200 毫克發動機轉向 35 毫克發動機，將影響卡車的硬件，從而推高卡車的成本。這可能會影響到 2026 年客戶的購買模式。

The thing is nobody knows that right now because the rule is in place, the law is in place around the 35-milligram NOx standard, but there is a statement made that they're considering opening it back up. And we recognize that on cost for our customers, makes their lives difficult.

問題是現在沒有人知道這一點，因為規則已經到位，法律已經達到了 35 毫克 NOx 標準，但有聲明稱他們正在考慮重新開放它。我們認識到，成本問題會給客戶帶來困難。

So we're well positioned to offer our customers a 200-milligram engine if that's what's legally allowed. And we also recognize that the government says it's going to be 35-milligram engines. We have great engines to offer them there, too.

因此，如果法律允許的話，我們可以為客戶提供 200 毫克的引擎。我們也知道政府表示將採用 35 毫克的引擎。我們也有出色的引擎可以提供給他們。

Steven Fisher, UBS.

瑞銀的史蒂文·費雪。

Well, thanks very much. And I'll, of course, add my thank you to Harrie, congratulations. It's been a real pleasure. Just from a backlog perspective, and ordering, what kind of visibility do you guys have to Q2 to Q4 at this point? We've heard some anecdotes about it's really challenging for buyers to kind of step up and place orders at the moment. So I'm curious what kind of visibility and what's the fill out look like at this point? And how does that vary between North America and Europe?

嗯，非常感謝。當然，我還要向哈利表示感謝，祝賀你。我真的很榮幸。僅從積壓訂單和訂購的角度來看，你們目前對第二季到第四季有什麼樣的了解？我們聽到一些傳聞稱，目前買家很難下訂單。所以我很好奇此時的可見度和填充效果是什麼樣的呢？北美和歐洲之間有何不同？

Yeah, sure. I think we're in the kind of a normal pattern for ourselves of where we are in the market cycle, and we have substantially full in the second quarter, taking orders through the third and fourth quarter right now. Could say that this actually comparable between the US and Europe in terms of backlog, kind of that substantially full in the second quarter and starting to think through the third quarter right now.

是的，當然。我認為我們正處於市場週期的正常模式中，第二季我們的訂單已基本滿，目前正在接受第三季和第四季的訂單。可以說，就積壓訂單而言，美國和歐洲實際上具有可比性，第二季積壓訂單基本上已滿，現在開始考慮第三季。

And I agree with your comments that the customers are trying to discern what their buying pattern should be and what the tariff policies will be. And so they're kind of contemplative of that, and it's affecting some people's buying patterns. But listen, the trucks we're building today are the most efficient trucks we've ever built, and they're good for operating costs and the customers love them. So there is that pull towards those trucks as well.

我同意您的評論，客戶正在試圖辨別他們的購買模式應該是什麼以及關稅政策是什麼。所以他們對此進行了思考，這影響了一些人的購買模式。但是聽著，我們今天製造的卡車是我們有史以來製造的最高效的卡車，它們有利於降低營運成本，並且深受客戶喜愛。因此這些卡車也具有吸引力。

That makes sense. And then just on the parts growth. I'm just curious what do you think is going to drive the acceleration in that in the -- in Q2 and for the rest of the year? What kind of sort of freight conditions you're assuming for that? And then I know you've mentioned a couple of times about general improvement for the second half of the year. Just curious, I guess, beyond parts, what are you assuming is going to change to drive that improvement? Thank you.

這很有道理。然後只是關於零件的增長。我只是好奇，您認為是什麼推動了第二季以及今年剩餘時間的成長？您認為貨運條件是怎樣的？我知道您已經多次提到下半年的整體改善。我只是好奇，除了部分之外，您認為還會有哪些變化來推動這種改進？謝謝。

I just think the general comment, the last one first. It feels to me like our customers, truckload customers have been kind of a long period of low rates -- and yet there's still a lot of ton miles being driven. So trucks are being used and kind of back to what I just stated before is like the trucks we're building today are the most efficient, highest performing trucks we've ever built.

我只是認為總體評論是先說最後一個。我覺得我們的客戶，整車運輸客戶，已經經歷了很長一段時間的低費率，但仍然需要行駛大量的里程。因此，卡車正在被使用，回到我剛才所說的，就像我們今天製造的卡車是我們有史以來最高效、性能最高的卡車。

And so there is a desire for those trucks, especially as their older trucks continue to accumulate miles. I'd also add that we're seeing -- the used truck market start to show some good signs of pricing in the US. And so that's an upside for people to think about turning their fleets also. So if there's a good residual value on their truck and there always is for the PACCAR premium trucks, then that's helpful to them to think about how they want to do their second half buys.

因此人們對這些卡車有需求，特別是當他們的舊卡車行駛里程不斷增加時。我還要補充一點，我們看到——美國二手卡車市場開始顯示出一些良好的定價跡象。因此，對於考慮轉變艦隊的人來說，這也是一個好處。因此，如果他們的卡車具有良好的殘值，而且 PACCAR 高級卡車也總是具有良好的殘值，那麼這有助於他們思考如何進行下半年的購買。

David Raso, Evercore.

大衛·拉索（David Raso），Evercore。

Hi, thank you for the time. And obviously, thank you, Harry, for all the meetings and time in Europe together and obviously, congrats to you and Kevin. First question, production versus retail 2Q, how are you thinking about your deliveries, your production versus retail? And sort of how do you think about production versus retail for the rest of the year? And then I have a quick follow-up about the sequential pattern of cost versus price.

你好，謝謝你抽出時間。顯然，哈利，謝謝你在歐洲的所有會議和共度的時光，顯然，恭喜你和凱文。第一個問題，第二季的生產與零售狀況，您如何看待您的交貨、生產與零售？您如何看待今年剩餘時間的生產和零售？然後我快速跟進一下成本與價格的順序模式。

Production versus retail, I think they're pretty much in good position with each other. We already talked about inventory levels for us being in a reasonable position. So I think production versus retail, there's not a lot of step change between the two of them. And then your sequential question is what specifically, David.

相對於生產和零售，我認為它們彼此之間處於相當有利的地位。我們已經討論過我們的庫存水準處於合理狀態。所以我認為生產與零售之間並沒有太大的變化。那麼你的後續問題具體是什麼，大衛。

And that's the full year comment on production versus retail, just to clarify the first part. That's a comment basically for the rest of the year, not just two you're pretty comfortable production.

這是對生產與零售的全年評論，只是為了澄清第一部分。這基本上是針對今年剩餘時間的評論，而不僅僅是兩年內你相當舒適的生產。

Well, I would say more specifically to I'd say it more specifically to 2Q, but I think it does generally apply to the full year.

嗯，我想更具體地說是第二季度，但我認為它通常適用於全年。

Okay. Then a follow-up. The math you're implying sequentially is, say, revenue is down $250 million, $270 million sequentially, but gross profit is down $190 million, right? So a pretty challenging decremental sequentially. But when I think about that, is the second quarter getting full tariff impact from what we know now, not speculating about future tariffs.

好的。然後進行後續行動。您所暗示的環比數字是，營收季減 2.5 億美元、2.7 億美元，但毛利下降 1.9 億美元，對嗎？因此，這是一個相當具有挑戰性的遞減順序。但當我考慮到這一點時，第二季是否會受到我們目前所知的全部關稅影響，而不是對未來關稅的猜測。

Is it a full quarter of tariff hit but not a full benefit from the pricing actions you're expected to take? So would the idea be by third quarter, that negative sequential gross margin, all else equal, should get better? Or is it now we're getting what we can on price in 2Q and that quarter hit on tariffs, it doesn't really necessarily get any better in 3Q. Just trying to get a sense of that negative sequential how painful is that? Or is that just sort of the way to think about the rest of the year?

這是否意味著整個季度的關稅都會受到影響，但您預期採取的定價措施並不能帶來全部好處？那麼，到第三季度，在其他條件相同的情況下，連續毛利率為負的情況是否會有所改善？還是說，現在我們在第二季的價格上已經盡力了，而當季的關稅又帶來了衝擊，第三季的情況並不一定會好轉。只是想了解那種負面連續性有多痛苦？或者這只是思考今年剩餘時間的一種方式？

David, I can always count on you to come up with some good analysis for us. And once again, didn't disappoint. I would say that your assessment is about correct, is like the sequential change is really because of the full quarter impact of the tariffs without the ability to fully pass that into price. And then as we see stability in tariff policy going forward, you would expect to see the pass on of price and cost to be more aligned.

大衛，我總是可以指望你為我們提供一些好的分析。再一次，沒有讓人失望。我想說你的評估大致正確，就像連續的變化實際上是因為關稅對整個季度的影響，而無法將其完全轉嫁到價格中。隨著我們看到未來關稅政策的穩定，您會看到價格和成本的轉移更加一致。

Okay, thank you very much. I appreciate it.

好的，非常感謝。我很感激。

Yeah, great question, thanks.

是的，很好的問題，謝謝。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略 (Angel Castillo)。

Hi, thanks for taking my question in the area. Harrie, I just want to echo everybody else, congratulations and wish you all the best. Maybe just to continue to unpack that a little bit more to the 2Q. Could you just maybe parse out how much of that is maybe volume related, the contraction in gross profit margins sequentially, how much of that is volume versus the tariff flow through you're talking about? And if you could talk about also the deliveries you're guiding to for 2Q by region, that would be helpful.

您好，感謝您回答我在該領域的問題。哈里，我只是想和大家一起祝賀你，並祝你一切順利。也許只是為了在第二季繼續進一步闡述這一點。您能否分析一下，其中有多少與銷量有關，毛利率環比下降，其中有多少與您所說的關稅流量有關？如果您能談談您預計第二季各地區交付情況的話，那將會很有幫助。

I would say that, of course, when you have -- if there's a few less trucks in the quarter, that could have some impact. But I would say it's mostly more to do with the discussion around tariffs is driving it. So that feels more likely to be the talking point.

當然，我想說的是，如果本季卡車數量減少幾輛，可能會產生一些影響。但我想說，這主要是因為圍繞關稅的討論正在推動這一進程。因此這更有可能成為談論的重點。

And then in a by-region standpoint, I think the North America or US, Canada feels relatively flat in deliveries, similar to Europe. What we've seen is the Mexico market is really kind of given a pause right now, and that pause is probably because their economy can be impacted by the trade discussions that are ongoing. So customers are hesitant there. And that's really the biggest number change between deliveries in Q1 and Q2.

然後從地區角度來看，我認為北美或美國、加拿大的交付量相對平穩，與歐洲類似。我們看到墨西哥市場現在確實處於停頓狀態，這種停頓可能是因為他們的經濟可能受到正在進行的貿易談判的影響。因此顧客們很猶豫。這確實是第一季和第二季交付量之間最大的數字變化。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then could you maybe -- on the tariff side, there's been a lot of discussion around the pricing ability. But maybe could you touch on just your -- the levers or the ability to maybe mitigate some of these potential headwinds kind of near term as you think about either cost management or other kind of initiatives you can implement?

知道了。這非常有幫助。那麼，也許在關稅方面，圍繞定價能力已經有很多討論。但是，當您考慮成本管理或您可以實施的其他類型的舉措時，也許您能談談您的槓桿或能力，也許可以減輕短期內的一些潛在不利因素？

And just more broadly, strategy-wise, how should we think about just all of this uncertainty impacting your desire to either invest or the location or maybe the areas that you choose to invest in going forward, I saw the R&D reduction. So just a broader discussion there would be helpful.

更廣泛地說，從策略角度來看，我們應該如何看待所有這些不確定性對您投資意願、地點或未來選擇投資的領域的影響，我看到了研發的減少。因此，進行更廣泛的討論將會很有幫助。

Well, I would frame the investment appetite we have is to continue making great investments on the products that we have for the future with no real deviation in that approach. We love what our business plans and product plans look like for the next five years.

好吧，我認為我們的投資意願是繼續對我們未來的產品進行大量投資，而這種方法不會有任何實際偏差。我們喜歡未來五年的商業計劃和產品計劃。

And so we'll continue making those investments because we have great returns for our customers and our company and our shareholders. So no change there at all, high confidence in those product developments that's what I would share on that one. And can you remind me again your first question?

因此，我們將繼續進行這些投資，因為我們為客戶、公司和股東帶來了豐厚的回報。所以根本沒有變化，對這些產品開發很有信心，這就是我想分享的。您能再提醒我您的第一個問題嗎？

Yeah, just on the tariffs, just anything that you can do in terms of levers that you can pull for cost management or other ways to kind of mitigate some of the margin pressure.

是的，就關稅而言，你可以採取任何措施來管理成本或採取其他方式來減輕利潤壓力。

Yeah, I mean, we work closely with our suppliers. Obviously, as one of the key elements we can do here. So where are components coming from? And are they USMCA qualified? So does that mean they have an each code applied to them. It's kept acronym.

是的，我的意思是，我們與供應商密切合作。顯然，這是我們可以在這裡做的關鍵要素之一。那麼組件來自哪裡？他們符合 USMCA 資格嗎？那麼這是否意味著他們各自應用了一個程式碼？保留其首字母縮寫。

Do they have a code applied to them and an understanding that they are USMCA compliant. And if they do, then that reduces the tariff impact, that's really dynamic because you're talking about not just first tier, but second and third-tier suppliers.

他們是否有適用的準則並了解他們是否符合 USMCA。如果他們這樣做，那麼關稅的影響就會減少，這真的很有活力，因為你談論的不僅僅是一級供應商，還有二級和三級供應商。

So I think we have a great team of people working on this cost management programs in partnership with our wonderful suppliers. Together, they're controlling costs in the best way possible. And we think there is some potential to mitigate some of those costs, no matter what the scenario.

所以我認為我們擁有一支優秀的團隊，與我們優秀的供應商合作進行這項成本管理計畫。他們共同以最佳方式控製成本。我們認為，無論情況如何，都有可能降低部分成本。

Very helpful, thank you.

非常有幫助，謝謝。

Kyle Menges, Citi.

花旗銀行的凱爾孟格斯 (Kyle Menges)。

Thank you, and I'll echo everyone else, congrats on the retirement, Harrie and Best wishes. I was hoping if you guys could, again, just elaborate on the gross margin in the quarter and just what's embedded in the guide for 2Q.

謝謝，我會和大家一起祝賀哈里退休，並致以最良好的祝愿。我希望你們能再次詳細說明本季的毛利率以及第二季指南中的內容。

And I think just more specifically, I'm trying to get a handle on the cost inflation you're seeing and what could actually be, I guess, stickier notwithstanding tariff impacts? Just kind of thinking about what could maybe be a little bit stickier on the cost inflation side, just in kind of the big buckets of raw materials, components, labor and I guess, anything else to call out?

我認為更具體地說，我正在嘗試掌握您所看到的成本通膨，以及我認為，儘管受到關稅影響，但實際上什麼可能更具黏性？只是在思考成本通膨方面什麼可能會變得更加棘手，例如原材料、零件、勞動力等大宗商品，我想，還有其他需要注意的嗎？

Yeah, I feel like we've done a pretty good job of explaining everything we can around gross margins for Q1 to Q2. And I think that most of the impacts are really related to the cost impact and most of the Q2 cost impact is assigned to tariffs. And I think we've kind of shared quite a bit on that. I'm not sure what else I could add on that. I don't think if (inaudible)

是的，我覺得我們已經很好地解釋了第一季至第二季的毛利率。我認為大部分影響實際上與成本影響有關，而第二季的大部分成本影響都歸因於關稅。我認為我們在這方面已經分享了很多。我不確定我還能補充什麼。我不認為（聽不清楚）

On the other cost elements, we've seen costs being flat, good productivity flow through our cost reduction efforts. We have caused production CMP programs going along with a lot of our suppliers and productivity in the factories is going well, too. off-line inventories at low levels. Production is pretty smooth in most factories. So yeah, from that perspective, things are moving well along.

在其他成本要素方面，我們看到成本持平，透過我們的成本削減努力，生產力得到了良好的提升。我們已經與許多供應商合作實施了 CMP 生產計劃，工廠的生產力也進展順利。線下庫存處於低點。大多數工廠的生產都比較順利。是的，從這個角度來看，事情進展順利。

Okay, got it. And then I just wanted to dig into the parts growth a little bit more for the second quarter, expecting anything up 2% to 4%. Just A little surprised by that, I guess, with deliveries implied down 20 and then freight activity could be fairly muted. So just help to understand what gives you confidence in parts growth of that 2% to 4%. I guess, is a lot of it pricing?

好的，明白了。然後，我只是想進一步深入了解第二季的零件成長情況，預計成長率將達到 2% 至 4%。我想，這只是有點令人驚訝，因為交付量暗示下降了 20，然後貨運活動可能會相當低迷。因此，這有助於理解是什麼讓您對 2% 到 4% 的零件成長充滿信心。我猜，其中很多都是定價嗎？

No, it is pricing. So if you look at the -- the first quarter, sequentially, pricing was up like 2.5%. Cost was up similar, but the price increase of between 2% and 3%, of course, that helps with revenue growth as well.

不，這是定價。因此，如果你看一下——第一季度，價格環比上漲了 2.5%。成本上漲幅度相似，但價格上漲了 2% 到 3%，當然，這也有助於收入成長。

Tim Thein, Raymond James.

提姆泰恩、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Great. Maybe just to start an update just from the standpoint of your -- sorry, your footprint in North America -- and just thinking, again, obviously, hard to know where the tariff wins are going to blow. But as we sit here today, I'm just curious if the company is thinking of any changes to the footprint with respect to the Canadian and Mexican output?

偉大的。也許只是從你的角度開始更新 — — 抱歉，是你在北美的足跡 — — 只是想，顯然，很難知道關稅勝利將會在哪裡爆發。但今天我們坐在這裡，我只是好奇公司是否正在考慮對加拿大和墨西哥的產量足跡做出任何改變？

And then I guess related to that, there's been some capacity increases that have been put forth. And I'm just thinking -- I'm curious if you're rethinking those or how you're approaching those with the potential that maybe the market sizes are as large as maybe what we would have thought a year or so ago. So kind of a two-part question just on the North American capacity and footprint.

我想與此相關的是，已經提出了一些容量增加的建議。我只是在想——我很好奇您是否正在重新考慮這些問題，或者您如何處理這些問題，因為市場規模可能與我們一年前左右想像的一樣大。因此，關於北美產能和足跡的問題分為兩部分。

Thanks, Tim. Thanks for the question. Footprint in North America is really well positioned. I think we have a great Peterbilt factory, a principal Peterbilt refractory in Denton, Texas, fantastic people, fantastic investments we've made there, brought up the efficiency Chillicothe, Ohio, also does a great job for us for our Kenworth factory for Class 8. We have our plant in rent in Washington, which has capacity for us.

謝謝，蒂姆。謝謝你的提問。北美的足跡確實定位良好。我認為我們擁有一家很棒的 Peterbilt 工廠，在德克薩斯州丹頓擁有一家主要的 Peterbilt 耐火材料廠，那裡有出色的員工，我們在那裡進行了出色的投資，提高了俄亥俄州奇利科西的效率，也為我們在肯沃斯的 8 級工廠做出了巨大的貢獻。我們在華盛頓租用了工廠，該工廠有足夠的產能。

Those are the principal 3 Class 8 truck plants that we use for North America for US production. And then we have our plant in Mexico, which basically produces a lot for the Mexican market. That's its biggest space that we've done, and we've made great investments in that because the market down there is good, and we're the market leader in Mexico. And then we have our St. Torres factory. We've made investments there.

這些是我們用於北美生產的 3 家主要的 8 級卡車工廠。我們在墨西哥有自己的工廠，主要為墨西哥市場生產大量產品。這是我們做過的最大的一個領域，我們在那裡進行了大量投資，因為那裡的市場很好，而且我們是墨西哥市場的領導者。然後我們有聖托雷斯工廠。我們已經在那裡進行了投資。

And that's a great factory with good people in it, too. So we feel like the footprint -- we probably have the best footprint of anybody, I think, and we feel very proud of our people and the great work they do in those factories. We can't give them enough of a shout out for how good they are, especially in dynamic times.

那是一家很棒的工廠，裡面也有優秀的員工。因此，我們感覺就像足跡——我認為，我們可能擁有比任何人更好的足跡，我們為我們的員工以及他們在這些工廠所做的出色工作感到非常自豪。我們對他們的優秀表現給予了極高的讚揚，尤其是在這個充滿活力的時代。

And then I would say the capital investments we've made around capacity will be well served for us, right? We don't think about quarters of our investments, we think about years and providing great values to our customers and being able to build the trucks they want from us, better, cleaner, more efficient trucks, and that's what those investments have been centered around. And so they're going to be good for our shareholders, good for our customers, good for our dealers and good for PACCAR.

然後我想說，我們在產能所做的資本投資將會為我們帶來良好的回報，對嗎？我們不會考慮投資的幾個季度，我們考慮的是多年的投資，為我們的客戶提供巨大的價值，並能夠製造他們想要的卡車，更好、更清潔、更有效率的卡車，這就是我們投資的中心。因此，這將有利於我們的股東、有利於我們的客戶、有利於我們的經銷商、有利於 PACCAR。

Okay, thank you, Preston and just on the medium-duty market, obviously, it's becoming a bigger one and a more important one for PACCAR in recent years. The outlook for 90,000 to 100,000 units in '25, was that altered in in terms of how you're thinking about the market size this year?

好的，謝謝普雷斯頓，就中型卡車市場而言，顯然，近年來，中型卡車市場對 PACCAR 來說變得越來越大，也越來越重要。您對 25 年市場規模的預期是 90,000 到 100,000 輛，這對您今年的市場規模有何影響？

No, we still think that's the market size for the medium-duty market.

不，我們仍然認為這是中型市場的市場規模。

Okay, alright, thank you.

好的，好的，謝謝。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

Yes, hi, good morning, everyone, and congratulations, Harrie, Brice and Kevin. Can I ask in terms of the impact of tariffs that we spoke to over the course of this call, so over the past two quarters, your profit per truck as a result of the tariffs is down about $5,000 for 2Q versus 4Q roughly.

是的，大家早安，祝賀哈利、布萊斯和凱文。我可以問一下我們在這次電話會議中談到的關稅的影響嗎？在過去兩個季度中，由於關稅的影響，第二季度每輛卡車的利潤比第四季度下降了約 5,000 美元。

Based on where you're putting trucks in March and April, is it fair to say you're going to make up a big chunk of that headwind based on the mid-single-digit number for pricing that you quoted Preston, that sounds like you should be able to make really good progress in 3Q relative to that number. But I'm wondering if you could put a finer point on that.

根據您在 3 月和 4 月投放卡車的情況，是否可以說您將根據您向普雷斯頓報出的中等個位數定價來彌補很大一部分逆風，這聽起來您應該能夠在第三季度相對於該數字取得非常好的進展。但我想知道您是否可以對此做出更詳細的說明。

Yeah, Jerry, I think I understand the math you're doing, I think it's really hard to see what Q3 is going to look like right now simply because we -- I think we really should wait and see what the tariff policy is and what the changes might be to it. And it will be a lot easier to talk about that once we have that clarity for ourselves. So I think that -- let's just hang on that question for a little bit and see what the policies become.

是的，傑瑞，我想我明白你做的計算，我認為現在很難看出第三季的情況會是什麼樣子，因為我們——我認為我們真的應該拭目以待，看看關稅政策是什麼，以及可能會發生哪些變化。一旦我們清楚了這一點，談論這個問題就會容易得多。所以我認為——讓我們先討論一下這個問題，看看政策會變成什麼樣子。

Okay, fair enough. And then in terms of your production flexibility, you could make any truck in any plant if you want to, depending on how tariffs go, to what extent could it make sense to make medium duty trucks in the US plant? In other words, what kind of impact on productivity would it make if you just increase the variability SKU if you choose to move in that direction.

好吧，夠公平。然後就生產靈活性而言，如果您願意，您可以在任何工廠生產任何卡車，這取決於關稅的走向，在美國工廠生產中型卡車在多大程度上是合理的？換句話說，如果您選擇朝這個方向發展，那麼增加可變性 SKU 會對生產力產生什麼樣的影響。

Yeah, I mean, you said we have the flexibilities in our plans, which is great, but we like the way we have our build laid out right now and don't have any plans to change that.

是的，我的意思是，您說我們的計劃具有靈活性，這很好，但我們喜歡目前的構建佈局方式，並且沒有任何計劃改變它。

Jeff Kauffman, Vertical Research Partners.

傑夫·考夫曼（Jeff Kauffman），Vertical Research Partners 的合夥人。

Thank you very much and like everybody else, Harrie, Best of luck in retirement. Congratulations to Kevin and Brice. I feel like the tariff and EPA questions have been beaten pretty hard here. So I want to go back to your comment, which I thought was great, which is, look, freight still moving and ton miles are still up, and this is really kind of a tariff cost impact and at the end of the day, we still got to move freight.

非常感謝，和大家一樣，哈里，祝你退休後一切順利。祝賀凱文和布萊斯。我覺得關稅和環保署的問題在這裡已經很難解決了。所以我想回到你的評論，我認為這很棒，那就是，你看，貨運仍在運輸，噸英里數仍在上升，這實際上是一種關稅成本影響，最終，我們仍然需要運輸貨物。

So I guess my takeaway is despite the uncertainty and despite people delaying decisions, I think would your view be over a three- to five-year period that the unlikely to be any destruction in truck demand over the long term?

所以我想我的看法是，儘管存在不確定性，儘管人們推遲做出決定，但我認為您是否認為在三到五年的時間內，卡車需求不太可能在長期內受到任何破壞？

Jeff, I think that's the right observation to make, right? America, over 70% of the product in America is moved by trucks, is still going to be moved by trucks in the next three to five years and trucks are wear out items. And the trucks we build become more and more efficient, which increases people's desire to have them.

傑夫，我認為這是正確的觀察，對嗎？美國，美國超過 70% 的產品是透過卡車運輸的，在未來三到五年內仍將透過卡車運輸，而卡車是易損件。我們製造的卡車越來越高效，這增加了人們擁有它們的願望。

So the number of trucks over that period of time is going to be constant. We expect our percentage to grow over time because we build the very best trucks, and that becomes increasingly important. We are the best dealers. And so we expect that that's going to increase over time. So that bodes well for the future.

因此，在那段時間內卡車的數量將保持不變。我們預計我們的份額會隨著時間的推移而增長，因為我們製造最好的卡車，而這一點變得越來越重要。我們是最好的經銷商。因此我們預計這一數字將會隨著時間的推移而增加。這對未來來說是個好兆頭。

That's my one. Thanks.

這是我的一個。謝謝。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團、沃爾夫研究公司。

Hey, thanks. On the guidance for deliveries, do you have any just directional color by region you can get.

嘿，謝謝。關於送貨指導，您是否有任何可按地區劃分的定向顏色？

Yeah. I think we even shared that a little bit earlier, but maybe you didn't catch it is we think that the US market is relatively flat. We think Europe is relatively flat. We think most of the impact and change sequentially is through Mexico.

是的。我想我們之前甚至分享過這一點，但也許你沒有意識到我們認為美國市場相對穩定。我們認為歐洲相對平穩。我們認為，大部分的影響和變化都是透過墨西哥產生。

Okay helpful. And then I think you guys said cost in Q1 was up 1% sequentially and price was flat. Do you have just -- how should we think about that embedded within the guide for Q2 in terms of costs, sequential and price sequential?

好的，很有幫助。然後我想你們說過第一季的成本較上季上漲了 1%，而價格持平。您是否只是—我們應該如何從成本、順序和價格順序的角度來考慮第二季指南中嵌入的內容？

Yeah, we would expect in Q2, we would see some price increase. And then depending on how the tariff structures there could be cost higher than that.

是的，我們預計第二季價格會有所上漲。然後，根據關稅結構，成本可能會更高。

So I guess, ultimately, my big picture question is like, is this Q2 a timing issue was suggested earlier of full cost impact of tariffs, but timing and ability to price it? Or is there some in a soft market, is there some lack of ability to actually get the full pricing benefit? Is it -- is it a timing issue? Or is it a pricing power issue, I guess, is ultimately my question.

所以我想，最終，我的大問題是，第二季是否是一個時間問題，之前曾提到關稅對全部成本的影響，但時間和定價能力呢？或者在疲軟的市場中是否存在一些缺乏真正獲得全部定價優勢的能力？這是時間問題嗎？或者這是一個定價權問題，我想，這最終是我的問題。

I thought I would look at it like you did with the timing issue being the principal effect there for the quarter? And I think that's the right way to think about it is mostly a timing effect. I mean there's -- obviously, it depends on the state of the market. But I think that the biggest impact right now is this timing impact of pricing versus the cost timing.

我以為我會像您一樣看待這個問題，並認為時間問題是本季的主要影響因素？我認為正確的思考方式主要是時間效應。我的意思是——顯然，這取決於市場狀況。但我認為目前最大的影響是定價時機與成本時機的影響。

Okay, thank you. Appreciate it.

好的，謝謝。非常感謝。

You bet.

當然。

Thank you. There are no further questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

謝謝。目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有什麼補充說明嗎？

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call, and thank you, operator.

我們感謝大家參加電話會議，也感謝您，接線生。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的 PACCAR 收益電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。