帕卡 (PCAR) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has any objection, they should disconnect at this time.

早安，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）今天的通話正在錄音，如果有人有異議，請立即掛斷電話。

I'd now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我想介紹 PACCAR 投資者關係總監肯·黑斯廷斯先生。黑斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning. We'd like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations, and joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Brice Poplawsk, Vice President and Controller.

早安.我們歡迎透過電話和網路廣播收聽的觀眾。我叫肯‧黑斯廷斯 (Ken Hastings)，是 PACCAR 的投資人關係總監，今早與我一起出席的還有執行長普雷斯頓‧費特 (Preston Feight)； Harrie Schippers，總裁兼財務長；以及副總裁兼財務長 Brice Poplawsk。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the Investor Relations page of paccar.com.

與先前的電話會議一樣，我們要求電話線上的任何媒體成員都以只聽模式參與。今天提供的某些資訊將具有前瞻性，涉及可能影響預期結果的風險和不確定性。欲了解更多信息，請參閱我們的 SEC 文件和 paccar.com 的投資者關係頁面。

I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

現在我想介紹普雷斯頓費特。

Hey, good morning, everyone. Harrie, Brice, Ken, and I will update you on our fourth quarter full year 2024 results, as well as other business highlights. PACCAR's outstanding employees delivered strong results by providing our customers with the highest quality trucks and transportation solutions in the industry.

嘿，大家早安。Harrie、Brice、Ken 和我將向您介紹我們 2024 年第四季全年業績以及其他業務亮點。PACCAR 的優秀員工透過為我們的客戶提供業界最高品質的卡車和運輸解決方案取得了出色的業績。

In 2024, PACCAR achieved annual revenues of $33.7 billion, net income of $4.2 billion, and an after-tax return on revenues of 12.4%. This is the second-highest profit in the company's history and was a great year for PACCAR.

2024年，PACCAR實現年營收337億美元，淨收入42億美元，稅後營收報酬率12.4%。這是公司史上第二高的利潤，對 PACCAR 來說，這是豐收的一年。

PACCAR's strong financial performance reflects the higher profitability of the latest generation of Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF trucks, record results in our parts division, and another good year for PACCAR Financial Services. PACCAR shareholders and customers benefited from the $8.6 billion invested over the past 10 years in new products, world-class facilities, and state-of-the-art technologies. PACCAR has achieved 86 consecutive years of net income and has paid a dividend every year since 1941.

PACCAR 強勁的財務業績反映了最新一代 Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 卡車的更高盈利能力、我們零件部門的創紀錄業績以及 PACCAR 金融服務的又一個豐收年。過去 10 年，PACCAR 股東和客戶受益於其在新產品、世界一流設施和最先進技術上 86 億美元的投資。帕卡已連續86年實現淨收入，並且自1941年起每年都派發股息。

In 2024, PACCAR declared $4.17 per share in dividends, including a year-end dividend of $3 per share. This is a 53% payout of net income and a dividend yield of 4%. PACCAR's fourth-quarter revenues were $7.9 billion and net income was $872 million. PACCAR Parts achieved excellent fourth-quarter revenues of $1.6 billion and pre-tax profits of $428 million.

2024年，PACCAR宣布每股股利4.17美元，其中包括每股3美元的年終股利。這是淨收入的53%的支出和4%的股息收益率。PACCAR第四季營收為79億美元，淨收入為8.72億美元。PACCAR Parts 在第四季取得了優異的成績，營收達 16 億美元，稅前利潤達 4.28 億美元。

Last year's US and Canadian Class 8 truck retail sales were 268,000 units. Kenworth and Peterbilt's market share increased to a strong 30.7%, up from 29.5% in the prior year. In the medium-duty market, Kenworth and Peterbilt's excellent new medium-duty truck has created customer value and market share grew from 14.5% to 18% as they produced a record 21,500 medium-duty trucks.

去年美國和加拿大 8 級卡車零售量為 268,000 輛。肯沃斯和彼得比爾特的市佔率從上年的 29.5% 大幅上升至 30.7%。在中型卡車市場，肯沃斯和彼得比爾特出色的新型中型卡車創造了客戶價值，市場份額從14.5%增長到18%，生產了創紀錄的21,500輛中型卡車。

In 2025, the US economy is projected to expand by more than 2%. The vocational truck sector, where Peterbilt and Kenworth are the market leaders, is steady. The less-than truckload market is performing well, while the truckload segment is beginning to show signs of improvement.

2025年，美國經濟預計將成長2%以上。職業卡車領域保持穩定，Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 是市場領導者。零擔貨運市場表現良好，而整車貨運市場也開始出現改善跡象。

The US and Canadian Class 8 truck market is forecast to be in a range of 250,000 to 280,000 vehicles. We anticipate a strengthening market as we progress through the year. European above [16 ton] truck registrations were 316,000 last year.

預計美國和加拿大 8 級卡車市場規模將在 25 萬至 28 萬輛之間。我們預計，隨著今年的到來，市場將會變得更加強勁。去年歐洲16噸以上卡車註冊量為316,000輛。

Customers appreciate DAFs industry-leading fuel efficiency and driver comfort. DAF trucks have a competitive advantage in the European market due to an innovative, aerodynamic design and feature the largest and most luxurious cab interior.

客戶欣賞 DAF 業界領先的燃油效率和駕駛舒適度。DAF 卡車因其創新的空氣動力學設計以及最大、最豪華的駕駛室內部而在歐洲市場具有競爭優勢。

In 2025, the European economy is forecast to grow modestly. We expect the above 16 ton truck market to be in the range of 270,000 to 300,000 registrations. Last year, the South American above 16-ton market was 119,000 vehicles and is expected to be similar this year. DAFs market share in the important Brazilian market was right around 10% and reflects a 23% production increase to more than 10,000 trucks in 2024.

預計2025年歐洲經濟將溫和成長。我們預計16噸以上卡車的市場註冊量將在27萬至30萬輛之間。去年南美洲16噸以上市場銷售量為11.9萬輛，預計今年銷量也將維持類似水準。DAF 在重要的巴西市場的份額約為 10%，到 2024 年，卡車產量將增加 23%，達到 10,000 多輛。

In addition to its successful growing business in Brazil, DAF trucks are now sold in Mexico and in the Andean region of South America. PACCAR Truck parts and other gross margins were a solid 15.9% in the fourth quarter. These margins are considerably higher than in prior industry cycles, reflecting the increased value that the new Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF trucks provide to customers, as well as the continued growth of PACCAR's parts.

除了在巴西成功發展的業務外，DAF 卡車目前還在墨西哥和南美洲安第斯山脈地區銷售。PACCAR 卡車零件和其他產品的毛利率在第四季達到 15.9%。這些利潤率遠高於先前的產業週期，反映了新款 Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 卡車為客戶提供的價值的增加，以及 PACCAR 零件的持續成長。

In the fourth quarter, PACCAR delivered 43,900 trucks, and in the first quarter of 2025, deliveries are forecast to be around 40,000. We estimate PACCAR's worldwide first-quarter truck and parts gross margins to be similar to the fourth quarter and in a range of 15.5% to 16%.

第四季度，PACCAR交付了43,900輛卡車，預計2025年第一季交付量將達到40,000輛左右。我們預計 PACCAR 全球第一季卡車和零件毛利率與第四季相似，介於 15.5% 至 16% 之間。

In addition to the strong financial performance, other business highlights in 2024 included PACCAR's progress on amplified cell technologies, our joint venture to manufacture commercial vehicle batteries in the United States, DAF was honored as the Fleet Truck of the Year in the UK, PACCAR Parts celebrated the 30 anniversary of TRP, Peterbilt earned the Environment and Energy Leader Award for sustainability, and Kenworth celebrated the 50 anniversary of its world-class truck factory in Chillicothe, Ohio.

除了強勁的財務表現外，2024 年的其他業務亮點還包括 PACCAR 在放大電池技術方面取得的進展、我們在美國生產商用車電池的合資企業、DAF 榮獲英國年度車隊卡車稱號、PACCAR Parts 慶祝 TRP 成立 30 週年、Peterbilt 獲得可持續發展環境與能源領導者獎，以及 Kenworth 西所慶祝其世界一流的世界一流卡車工廠成立 50 週年卡車 50 週年。

We look forward to an excellent year in 2025, as we celebrate the 120 anniversary of PACCAR's founding in 1905. Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial Services, and other business highlights. Harrie?

我們期待 2025 年是一個輝煌的一年，因為我們將慶祝 PACCAR 於 1905 年成立 120 週年。Harrie Schippers 現在將提供有關 PACCAR 零件、PACCAR 金融服務和其他業務亮點的最新資訊。哈里？

Thank you, Preston. In 2024, PACCAR Parts set new records for revenues and profits. Annual revenues increased by 4% to a record $6.7 billion, and pre-tax profit increased to a record $1.71 billion. Parts gross margins averaged 30.9%. In the current freight environment, we estimate parts sales to grow by 2% to 4% this year.

謝謝你，普雷斯頓。2024年，PACCAR Parts的營收和利潤創下了新紀錄。年收入成長 4%，達到創紀錄的 67 億美元，稅前利潤成長至創紀錄的 17.1 億美元。零部件毛利率平均為30.9%。在目前的貨運環境下，我們預計今年零件銷售額將成長 2% 至 4%。

PACCAR Parts' excellent long-term growth reflects the benefits of investments that increase vehicle uptime and convenience for customers. PACCAR's aftermarket parts business provides strong profitability through all phases of the business cycle.

PACCAR Parts 出色的長期成長反映了增加車輛正常運行時間和客戶便利性的投資收益。PACCAR 的售後零件業務在整個商業週期的各個階段都提供了強勁的獲利能力。

PACCAR Parts has expanded to 20 parts distribution centers, or PDCs, worldwide, including a new PDC in Germany, which opened in November. This PDC enhances parts availability and delivery times to German dealers and customers, and is part of a strategy to increase DAF's truck market share in the largest truck market in Europe.

PACCAR Parts 已在全球擴展到 20 個零件配送中心（PDC），其中包括 11 月在德國開業的新 PDC。該PDC提高了德國經銷商和客戶的零件供應能力並縮短了交貨時間，也是DAF在歐洲最大卡車市場擴大市場份額策略的一部分。

PACCAR Financial Services achieved fourth quarter pre-tax income of $104 million. Annual pre-tax income was $436 million. PACCAR Financial is performing well with a portfolio that has excellent credit quality and low past use. PACCAR Financial provides the highest quality service in the market and makes it easy for customers to do business with them through the efficient use of technology in the credit application and loan servicing processes.

PACCAR金融服務公司第四季實現稅前收入1.04億美元。年稅前收入為 4.36 億美元。PACCAR Financial 表現良好，其投資組合具有優秀的信用品質和較低的過往使用率。PACCAR Financial 提供市場上最高品質的服務，並透過在信貸申請和貸款服務流程中有效使用技術，使客戶可以輕鬆地與其開展業務。

PACCAR Financial operates 13 used truck centers around the world to support the sale of premium Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF used trucks, and is adding a new used truck center in Warsaw, Poland, this year.

PACCAR Financial 在全球經營 13 家二手卡車中心，以支援高端 Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 二手卡車的銷售，今年將在波蘭華沙增設一個新的二手卡車中心。

Last year, PACCAR invested $796 million in capital projects and $453 million in research and development. PACCAR delivered an excellent return on invested capital of 25.5%. This year, we are planning capital investments in the range of $700 million to $800 million, and R&D expenses in the range of $460 million to $500 million, as we invest in key technology and innovation projects.

去年，PACCAR 在資本項目上投資了 7.96 億美元，在研發上投資了 4.53 億美元。PACCAR 的投資報酬率高達 25.5%，十分出色。今年，我們計劃資本投資在7億至8億美元之間，研發費用在4.6億至5億美元之間，用於投資關鍵技術和創新項目。

These include new clean diesel and alternative fuel engines, the next generation of battery electric powertrains, advanced driver assistance systems, and integrated connected vehicle services. PACCAR is expanding manufacturing capacity at our factories in Europe, North America, Brazil, and Australia. These investments will support PACCAR's future growth, as well as our customers' success.

這些包括新型清潔柴油和替代燃料引擎、新一代電池電動動力系統、先進的駕駛輔助系統和整合的連網汽車服務。PACCAR 正在擴大其位於歐洲、北美、巴西和澳洲的工廠的生產能力。這些投資將支持 PACCAR 的未來成長以及我們客戶的成功。

PACCAR's independent Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF dealers consistently invest in their businesses, enhancing our industry-leading distribution network and making a significant contribution to PACCAR's long-term success. PACCAR's looks forward to another excellent year in 2025. Thank you. We'd be pleased to answer your questions.

PACCAR 的獨立 Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 經銷商持續投資於他們的業務，增強了我們領先業界的分銷網絡，並為 PACCAR 的長期成功做出了重大貢獻。PACCAR 期待 2025 年再創輝煌。謝謝。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Tami Zakaria of JP Morgan.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞。

Hey, good morning. Thank you so much for taking my questions. So, my first question is on the delivery guide. Can you help us understand how to think about deliveries by geography in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter, trying to bridge the gap and where that difference is coming from which geography, if you could highlight?

嘿，早安。非常感謝您回答我的問題。所以，我的第一個問題是關於交付指南。您能否幫助我們理解第一季與第四季按地區劃分的交付情況，並試圖縮小差距，以及這種差異來自哪個地區，您能重點說明一下嗎？

Yeah. Happy, Tami. Good to talk to you. What I would share with you is in the US, we expect Class 8 to be flat or up even a little bit in Q1. But what we've seen is the medium-duty market, which has just been very robust is probably normalizing now. So we'll see us a bit smaller medium-duty market. I'd also remind people that there was a Euro 6 implementation in Mexico that was in the fourth quarter. So that kind of was there was a bit of a pre-buy in Mexico that won't be present in their first quarter.

是的。開心，塔米。很高興和你談話。我想告訴大家的是，在美國，我們預計 8 年級學生人數在第一季將持平或略有上漲。但我們看到，之前表現非常強勁的中型車市場現在可能正在恢復正常。因此，我們會看到中型市場規模稍微小一點。我還要提醒大家，墨西哥已於第四季開始實施歐 6 標準。所以，這有點像墨西哥的預購，但在第一季不會出現。

And also, if you're doing comparisons of Q4, Q1, we had good supplier performance in the fourth quarter that allowed our normal year-end inventory reduction that take place. So all those things kind of had an impact. And maybe the only last one I'd add is we have fewer production days outside the US, specifically in South America as an impact. So all that goes into that delivery guidance. But in essence, we're seeing flat Class 8, maybe slightly up Class 8 in the US markets.

此外，如果您對第四季度和第一季進行比較，您會發現，我們在第四季度的供應商表現良好，這使得我們能夠正常地減少年底的庫存。所以所有這些事情都會產生影響。也許我要補充的最後一點是，我們在美國以外的生產天數減少了，特別是對南美洲產生了影響。所有這些都納入了交付指南中。但從本質上講，我們看到美國市場的 8 級銷量持平，甚至可能略有上漲。

Got it. That is very helpful color. And my second question is on the investments for Amplify. The JV you have with Cummins and Daimler. Do you think you could revisit that -- the whole idea could be rethought at this point given the current administration shift away from BEVs.

知道了。那是非常有用的顏色。我的第二個問題是關於 Amplify 的投資。與康明斯和戴姆勒成立的合資企業。您認為您可以重新考慮這一點嗎——考慮到現任政府逐漸放棄支持電動車，整個想法可能需要重新考慮。

Well, I'll share this with you. I am so happy with how that's going. And I think if I could remake the decision now knowing what I know, I'd make the same decision. It's a long-term strategic objective for our company to be able to offer our customers a full portfolio of powertrain choices. We see that there will be places where battery electric vehicles make sense or could be hybrid vehicles. And our Amplify Cell Technologies joint venture will allow us to have the lowest cost, highest quality batteries so that we'll be the most competitive in the market, which will be in support of our customers.

好吧，我會與你分享這個。我對事情的進展非常滿意。我想，如果我現在能夠根據所了解的情況重新做出決定，我還是會做出同樣的決定。能夠為客戶提供全套動力系統選擇是我們公司的長期策略目標。我們發現在某些地方，電動車是可行的，或者可以使用混合動力汽車。我們的 Amplify Cell Technologies 合資企業將使我們能夠擁有成本最低、品質最高的電池，從而讓我們在市場上最具競爭力，這將為我們的客戶提供支援。

Okay. Great. Thank you.

好的。偉大的。謝謝。

Our next question comes from Kyle Menges of Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗的 Kyle Menges。

Thanks, guys. So you did reference the vocational strength, and it seems like that's been a big piece of why we've seen this order resilience in Class 8. But I guess just what gives you confidence that dealers aren't overordering here to stay in body builders pipelines? And just could you maybe give us a gauge of how many of those orders actually have a customer's name attached.

謝謝大家。所以你確實提到了職業實力，這似乎是我們在第 8 班看到這種秩序彈性的一個重要原因。但是我想，是什麼讓您有信心經銷商不會過度訂購以保留在車身製造商的通路中？您能否告訴我們，其中有多少訂單上確實標註了客戶的名字。

Yeah. We have -- all of our customers there feel really solid. In fact, if you -- one way to look at it is inventory. So the industry inventory is running, what, 3.1 months in heavy-duty and Kenworth and Peterbilt's inventory levels at 2.3 months. So our inventory is in good shape. There is a backlog at body builders, but those are really spoken for trucks.

是的。我們——我們那裡的所有客戶都感到非常可靠。事實上，如果你——觀察它的一種方式就是庫存。因此，產業庫存運作情況是，重型卡車的庫存水準為 3.1 個月，而 Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 的庫存水準為 2.3 個月。所以我們的庫存狀況良好。車身製造商積壓了大量庫存，但這些庫存實際上是用於卡車的。

Okay. And then if you could just provide maybe a little more color on how you're thinking about the medium-duty market in US and Canada as we progress through the year. You mentioned probably down a little bit in 1Q, but I guess just how are you thinking about the growth as we move throughout the year, first half versus second half would be helpful.

好的。然後，如果您可以提供更多關於您對今年美國和加拿大中型市場的看法的話。您提到第一季可能會略有下降，但我想您如何看待全年的成長情況，上半年與下半年相比會有所幫助。

Yeah. I think that what we saw kind of referencing back, Kyle, to last year, you'd say that we had a pretty steady set of builds in the year. There were strong builds. There was, if you recall, a mirror factory fire that amplified some deliveries in the third quarter. So when you're comparing 3Q to 4Q, you'd see lower deliveries at 4Q. And now we just think that the medium-duty market is going to go back to more normal, historically normal levels. And in those normal levels, we'll continue to see our new products perform well.

是的。凱爾，我想，回顧去年，你會說我們在這一年中擁有一系列相當穩定的建設。有強大的建築。如果你還記得的話，鏡子工廠曾發生過火災，導致第三季的部分交付量增加。因此，當您比較第 3 季和第 4 季時，您會發現第 4 季的交付量較低。現在我們認為中型市場將恢復到更正常、歷史正常的水平。在正常水平下，我們將繼續看到我們的新產品表現良好。

Customers seem quite happy with the new 2.1 meter wide Kenworth and Peterbilts. They work well, body builders, they're gaining our market share. In fact, we've grown from 14.5% to 18% share in the medium-duty market last year. So we feel good about our position. The cadence of half one to half two probably would expect it also to see strengthening in the second half.

客戶似乎對新款 2.1 公尺寬的 Kenworth 和 Peterbilts 非常滿意。它們效果很好，健美運動員，它們正在奪取我們的市場份額。事實上，去年我們在中型市場的市佔率已從 14.5% 成長到 18%。所以我們對我們的地位感到很滿意。第一半到第二半的節奏可能還會預期在下半場會加強。

Our next question comes from Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies..

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Stephen Volkmann。

I'm curious as we sort of do the dumb math and look at total truck revenues divided by the deliveries, it seems like the kind of revenue per truck was down 5%-ish, which is one of the bigger declines we've seen recently.

我很好奇，我們做了一些愚蠢的計算，將卡車總收入除以運送量，似乎每輛卡車的收入下降了 5% 左右，這是我們最近看到的較大下降之一。

And I know there's a lot in there between price and mix and things like that. But I'm curious, if you can provide any color, was that mostly mix? Is there kind of more [day cab] happening or more vocational? Or how do we think about kind of what's going on in price mix?

我知道價格、組合等因素之間存在著許多關係。但我很好奇，如果您可以提供任何顏色，那主要是混合色嗎？有沒有更多日間出租車或更多職業出租車？或者我們如何看待價格組合的情況？

Yes, Steve, there's a little bit of mix -- regional mix going on. So North America is more vacation or holidays in the fourth quarter. That's a little bit stronger mix in Europe in Q4. And then on top of that, we had unfavorable foreign exchange rates. So it's a very strong dollar. And that probably accounts for half of the reduction in average sales price.

是的，史蒂夫，有一點混合——區域混合正在進行中。因此北美第四季的假期較多。第四季歐洲的組合稍微強勁一些。除此之外，我們的外匯匯率也非常不利。因此美元非常強勢。這大概是平均銷售價格下降的一半原因。

Got it. Okay. Right. A lot in there. Okay. And then slightly differently, have you guys announced or started telling your customers kind of the order of magnitude of the expected price increase for the 2027 regulations that we're all looking forward to.

知道了。好的。正確的。裡面有很多。好的。然後稍微不同的是，你們是否已經宣布或開始告訴你們的客戶我們都期待的 2027 年法規預計價格上漲的幅度。

We're having general conversations with them about that, and we're still saying it can be the $10,000, $15,000 price range for adjustments to 2027. Obviously, the details of that aren't finalized, but that's kind of what it feels like right now.

我們正在與他們就此進行一般性對話，我們仍然表示，到 2027 年，調整後的價格範圍可以達到 10,000 美元至 15,000 美元。顯然，具體細節尚未最終確定，但現在的感覺就是這樣。

Okay. Thank you, guys.

好的。謝謝你們。

Our next question comes from Rob Wertheimer of Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

I had two, if I may. First is just I'd love to hear your thoughts on gross margin trend and truck pricing. It seems like used market to stabilize, inventory at least on sleep versus compound. I don't know if you see that and probably better data that you have. And just curious whether you see any hopefulness or the reverse on new truck pricing? That's my first one.

如果可以的話，我有兩個。首先，我很想聽聽您對毛利率趨勢和卡車定價的看法。看來二手市場要穩定下來，庫存至少在睡眠與複合方面。我不知道您是否看到了這一點，並且可能擁有比您更好的數據。我只是好奇，您是否看到新卡車定價出現任何希望或逆轉？這是我的第一個。

Yeah. Sure. Rob, what we'd say is that we're looking into Q1 and seeing like things should be pretty steady, as you can tell from our guide, where we said 15.5% to 16% gross margin. So we see that things are starting to look up but just beginning to, as we noticed the truckload carriers starting to come back into the market and then probably gaining strength through the course of the year.

是的。當然。羅布，我們要說的是，我們正在研究第一季度的情況，情況應該相當穩定，正如你從我們的指南中看到的那樣，我們所說的毛​​利率為 15.5％ 至 16％。因此，我們看到情況開始好轉，但這只是開始，因為我們注意到卡車運輸公司開始重返市場，然後可能在一年內增強實力。

And then on the used truck side, Rob, I would add that PACCAR Financials used truck inventory is at very healthy and low levels right now. And so that's also a good thing.

然後關於二手卡車方面，羅布，我想補充一點，PACCAR Financials 的二手卡車庫存目前處於非常健康和較低的水平。這也是一件好事。

That's a good leading indicator as well.

這也是一個很好的領先指標。

The bottom there. Okay. Perfect. And then Preston, just spark my curiosity, you mentioned hybrid trucks. And I think across the auto, maybe even the truck world, years ago, there was a bit of resistance to hybrids and the feeling that you'd go full electric. I'm curious what hearing from your customers. Is that something that there's actual demand for now? Or they really use cases that are nonregulatory? I'm just curious about your thoughts there. I'll stop there.

底部就在那裡。好的。完美的。然後普雷斯頓，你提到了混合動力卡車，這激發了我的好奇心。我認為，幾年前，在整個汽車行業，甚至卡車行業，人們對混合動力汽車有所抵觸，並認為應該採用全電動汽車。我很好奇你的客戶聽到了什麼。這是目前實際需求的東西嗎？或者他們確實使用非監管的案例？我只是好奇你的想法。我就到此為止。

Yeah. Great question, Rob. I think what we see is that through hybrid systems, we might be able to improve fuel efficiency and likewise, greenhouse gas by double-digit levels. And if we're able to do that, that's obviously desirable for our customers. There is an added cost to it. So the balance of what's the payback time sits into there.

是的。很好的問題，羅布。我認為我們看到的是，透過混合系統，我們可能能夠提高燃油效率，並且溫室氣體排放也能夠提高兩位數的水平。如果我們能夠做到這一點，這對我們的客戶來說顯然是令人滿意的。這會產生額外的成本。因此，回報時間的平衡就在於此。

So there is a striving for a business case, which is free of regulatory hurdles, but we know that there will be regulations coming and going over time. So that could also be an added incentive to hybrid business case. And that's true for both US and Europe, maybe especially true in Europe.

因此，我們正在努力尋找一個不受監管障礙的商業案例，但我們知道，隨著時間的推移，監管將會不斷推出和取消。所以這也可能成為混合商業案例的額外誘因。這對美國和歐洲來說都是如此，對歐洲來說尤其如此。

Our next question comes from Steven Fisher of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的史蒂文費雪。

Thanks. Good afternoon. I just wanted to touch upon the margins in the first quarter. As you said, Preston, they're going to be pretty stable, which is pretty impressive on 10% lower production. I guess I'm just curious what is enabling that steadiness of the margins in light of that lower level of production?

謝謝。午安.我只是想談談第一季的利潤。正如你所說，普雷斯頓，它們會非常穩定，這在產量下降 10% 的情況下非常令人印象深刻。我只是好奇，在生產水準較低的情況下，什麼能讓利潤率保持穩定？

Well, I think what we're seeing is the trucks are performing really, really well. So that's helpful to us, obviously, in terms of discussions with customers. Fuel economy is great. The reliability is great. Our warranty costs are slightly down. And it just feels like between all those factors and where the market is starting to head, we think that we'll see that kind of a margin appear in the first quarter.

嗯，我認為我們看到的是卡車的表現非常非常好。因此，就與客戶的討論而言，這顯然對我們有幫助。燃油經濟性很好。可靠性很高。我們的保固成本略有下降。感覺在所有這些因素和市場開始走向之間，我們認為我們將在第一季看到這種利潤率的出現。

Okay. And I guess, just curious about the broader pricing environment now. Do you think that it's now kind of more stable that we're in this part of the downturn? And how confident can we be that sort of we've hit the low point on margins and pricing discounts for the year?

好的。我想，我只是對現在更廣泛的定價環境感到好奇。您是否認為，我們目前所處的衰退階段已經比較穩定了？我們有多大信心認為我們已經達到了今年利潤率和價格折扣的最低點？

Sure. Great question again. And I think what we've shared and we continue to share is like we see 2025 with improvement coming throughout the year. We think for sure in the second half, maybe it's in the second quarter, we'll have to watch how the world develops, of course, but it feels like a positive trend.

當然。又一個好問題。我認為我們已經分享的和我們繼續分享的是，我們看到 2025 年全年都會有所改善。我們肯定會在下半年，也許是第二季度，當然，我們必須觀察世界如何發展，但感覺這是一個積極的趨勢。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Our next question comes from Angel Castillo of Morgan Stanley. Angel, we are receiving a lot of feedback from your line (Operator Instructions)

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Angel Castillo。Angel，我們收到了很多來自你的回饋（操作員指令）

Why don't we go to the next caller, yes, Charlie let's go to the next caller.

我們為什麼不接聽下一位來電？

Our next question comes from Jamie Cook of Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Jamie Cook。

Just to clarify, can you speak specifically what price cost was for truck and for parts in the fourth quarter specifically and what's implied by region for 2025? And then my second question, it sounds like you would say the first quarter is the trough for margins in total. Is that for total company?

只是為了澄清一下，您能否具體說一下第四季度卡車和零件的價格成本是多少，以及 2025 年各地區的具體價格成本是多少？然後我的第二個問題是，聽起來你會說第一季是總利潤率的低潮。是針對整個公司嗎？

Or is that also for truck margins? And I'm just wondering if you get to the back half of the year, do you expect to see sales growth and then get back to a position where we're actually seeing incremental margins versus decremental? Thank you.

或者這也適用於卡車利潤？我只是想知道，如果到今年下半年，您是否預期銷售額會成長，然後回到我們實際上看到利潤率增加而不是減少的狀態？謝謝。

Yeah. I mean that's another way of asking what we already talked about, I think, quite a bit. But the truck for Q4 price versus cost was negative 0.6% on price and cost was 2.7%. And what we're expecting to see is some trending improvement through the course of the year, Jamie.

是的。我的意思是，這是詢問我們已經討論過的問題的另一種方式，我想，已經談了很多了。但第四季卡車的價格與成本比為-0.6%，成本為2.7%。我們期望看到今年的趨勢有所改善，傑米。

And so we think that will be favorable to your point, and we see continued strong parts margins, so like 30.9% in 4Q, and we would expect to see continued good margins in the first quarter as well. So those are contributing to a general upward trend in our mind.

因此，我們認為這對您的觀點有利，我們看到零件利潤率繼續保持強勁，例如第四季度為 30.9%，我們預計第一季的利潤率也將繼續保持良好。所以這些都促使我們心中形成了一個整體上升的趨勢。

But was that by geography, I guess my question was.

但那是按地理位置劃分的嗎？

I don't think we provide it by geography, Jamie.

傑米，我不認為我們能按地理位置提供它。

Okay. And then I guess the follow-up question was by the second half of 2025, should we start to see incremental margins? Are you assuming sales volumes are up versus decrementals? I mean your margins are pretty impressive right now in the first quarter.

好的。然後我想後續的問題是到 2025 年下半年，我們是否應該開始看到增量利潤？您是否認為銷售量會上升而不是下降？我的意思是，目前第一季的利潤率相當可觀。

As the market improves in the second half of the year, we would expect margin development to improve accordingly.

隨著下半年市場的好轉，我們預期利潤率也會隨之改善。

Yes. I mean, I think, Jamie, nice comment on -- thanks also for the comment on the margins because it is -- these are cycle-over-cycle, good margin improvements, a few 100 basis points. And we do think that as we've said last time we remain consistent. This time, we think that 2025 will see improvement throughout the year. And as it improves, that will be good for our incrementals.

是的。我的意思是，我認為，傑米，很好的評論——也感謝你對利潤率的評論，因為這是——這些都是周期性的，良好的利潤率改善，幾百個基點。我們確實認為，正如我們上次所說的那樣，我們會保持一致。這次，我們認為 2025 年全年都會出現改善。隨著它的改進，這將有利於我們的增量。

Great. Thank you very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Tim the Raymond James.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 Tim the Raymond James。

Thank you. Good morning. Maybe just first question, just in terms of any comments you could, you could provide just is it as it pertains to order activity and, and how the backlog is filling in both North America and Europe. Just curious and just in terms of how far your lead times extend and how that presumably quoting into the second quarter, but maybe you just give some color on that.

謝謝。早安.也許只是第一個問題，就您可以提供的任何評論而言，它是否與訂單活動有關，以及北美和歐洲的積壓訂單是如何填補的。只是好奇，只是關於你的交貨時間延長了多久以及大概會延續到第二季​​度，但也許你只是對此給出一些解釋。

Sure, Tim. Good, good question. Good insight to gain for everybody is I think that we're roughly 75% or three quarter full in Q1 and probably more like half full in Q2. So that's kind of where things look like pretty reasonable levels.

當然，提姆。好問題。我認為，對於每個人來說，一個很好的見解是，我們在第一季大約完成了 75% 或四分之三的訂單，而在第二季度可能更像是完成了一半的訂單。所以事情看起來處於相當合理的水平。

Got it. Okay. And the -- presumably the composition of that backlog, much more weighted, I would assume, towards vocational. And should we think about any mix impact from that? Just if that supposition is correct, that would be a heavier weighting than normal? Is there much of an impact, again, from a product mix standpoint? Or is that kind of a neutral dynamic there?

知道了。好的。而且 — — 我想，積壓工作的組成可能更偏向職業方面。我們是否應該考慮由此產生的混合影響？如果這個假設正確的話，那麼權重會比正常情況下更大嗎？從產品組合的角度來看，這是否會產生很大的影響？或者那是一種中性動態嗎？

Tim, I think that the vocational -- the heavy influence of vocational was more of a last year thing. And as vocational steady now, I think the mix shift is kind of coming back to more traditional levels.

提姆，我認為職業——職業的巨大影響更多的是去年的事情。現在，隨著職業的穩定，我認為混合轉變正在回歸到更傳統的水平。

Okay. Okay. Got it. And then maybe for Harry, just if, a big f, but we had the dollar at today's levels through the quarter, some pretty big moves against some of your key currencies. Is there a way to think about, a, what FX had -- what impact that foreign exchange had on margins in the fourth quarter and what that may imply if the dollar were at today's levels for the first quarter?

好的。好的。知道了。然後也許對哈利來說，只是如果，一個大f，但本季度美元一直處於今天的水平，對一些主要貨幣產生了相當大的波動。有沒有辦法思考，外匯對第四季度的利潤率有何影響，以及如果美元在第一季處於今天的水平，這可能意味著什麼？

Yes. This is Brice. I'll just comment on that. We had a negative effect on our net income in the fourth quarter from the foreign currencies of about $20 million. And that's something we will -- obviously, we don't know what's going to happen to rates. But as you said, if they stay where there are, obviously, it would be a recurring effect.

是的。這是布萊斯。我只是對此作出評論。外幣匯率對我們第四季的淨收入產生了約 2000 萬美元的負面影響。這是我們將會做的事情——顯然，我們不知道利率會發生什麼變化。但正如你所說，如果他們留在原地，顯然會產生反覆的影響。

And it's all factored into our guidance of between 15.5% to 16%.

這些都已計入我們 15.5% 至 16% 之間的預期。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Our next question will go to Angel Castillo of Morgan Stanley,

我們的下一個問題是摩根士丹利的 Angel Castillo，

Yes, can you hear me at this Time?

是的，現在你聽得到我的聲音嗎？

Yes, you're not giving us quite the static you did on your first time..

是的，您沒有給我們像第一次那麼多的靜態資訊。

I apologize for that. it sounds like it is working right now. So I apologize if somebody asked it, but just I think you lowered the R&D expense for the full year. Can you just talk about maybe what's driving that? And maybe going back to one of the initial questions around the Amplify JV. Obviously, a lot of kind of good, I guess, strategic reasons to continue to invest in that, but I believe it was a multiphase project. Is it fair to assume that it will be -- you will be doing it in phases and deciding to move forward? Or is it -- we should assume that all three phases are moving forward?

我對此表示歉意。聽起來它現在正在發揮作用。所以如果有人問這個問題我很抱歉，但我認為你降低了全年的研發費用。您能否談一談造成這種情況的原因是什麼？也許可以回到最初有關 Amplify JV 的一個問題。顯然，我想有很多好的策略理由促使我們繼續進行投資，但我相信這是一個多階段的專案。是否可以公平地假設—您將分階段進行並決定向前邁進？或者是──我們應該假設所有三個階段都在向前推進？

Yes, sure. It's a great question, both of them. So R&D is going to be still year-over-year, we thinking slightly up. So probably in the range of 5% up from last year just because there's a lot of great projects for us to be working on. Of course, the Amplify One doesn't really fit into that space. But what we're doing with Amplify is we've cleared the ground now. We're putting in the buildings.

是的，當然。這兩個問題都問得很好。因此，我們認為研發支出仍將較去年同期略有上升。因此可能比去年增加 5%，因為我們有很多很棒的項目要開展。當然，Amplify One 實際上並不適合這個空間。但我們透過 Amplify 所做的工作現在已經清理完畢。我們正在建造建築物。

And then what we'll do is measure how much capacity we need to install. But we want to get started on that. So we have some capacity available for the markets that exist. And then we'll just scale capacity based upon market demands for the EVs or hybrids.

然後我們要測量需要安裝多少容量。但我們想開始這麼做。因此，我們對現有的市場有一定的產能。然後我們將根據電動車或混合動力車的市場需求來擴大產能。

That's helpful. And then I wanted to go back to some comments you've made this quarter and I guess last quarter as well in terms of maybe some green shoots on the TL are starting to see some improvements. I think you mentioned that you could you maybe see -- you could maybe see some improvement as soon as 2Q.

這很有幫助。然後我想回顧一下您在本季以及上個季度所發表的一些評論，也許 TL 上的一些綠芽開始出現一些改善。我想您提到過，您也許可以看到——也許在第二季度您會看到一些改善。

Can you just give us a little bit more color what exactly are you hearing from your customers in terms of potential green shoots on the TL market? And maybe what would kind of give you confidence in that 2Q number starting to show a rebound versus maybe more of a second half?

您能否向我們稍微詳細介紹一下，就 TL 市場的潛在復甦跡象而言，您從客戶那裡聽到了哪些具體資訊？那麼什麼可以讓您相信第二季的數據開始反彈，而不是下半年出現更多反彈？

A couple of things. One is, we've just started to see spot rates improvement. So that's something that's measuring into our thoughts. I'd say some of the capacity has come out of the market. So it's making it easier for the good carriers to become successful. And then I would also add, as we said earlier, that the used market inventories are quite low. And so that's kind of a tell of how the world is starting to turn a little bit. So all of those are soft indicators of what we think is to come.

有幾件事。一是，我們才剛開始看到現貨價格的改善。所以這就是我們正在思考的事情。我想說部分產能已經退出市場。這使得優秀的營運商更容易獲得成功。然後我還要補充一點，正如我們之前所說的，二手市場庫存相當低。這表明世界正在開始發生一些變化。所以，所有這些都是我們認為未來會發生什麼事情的軟指標。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from David Raso of Evercore ISI.

（操作員指示）我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

Your comment about strengthening market as the year progresses, how is that influencing how you're pricing the '26 model years that start shipping in April? And then wrapping with that maybe a bit, your reaction to some of the recent executive orders from the White House just to think about how that influences how you think about the prebuy, which I assume sort of dovetails a little bit into how you think about pricing?

您提到隨著時間的推移市場將不斷加強，這對您對 4 月開始出貨的 26 款車型的定價有何影響？然後可能再總結一下，您對白宮最近發布的一些行政命令的反應是如何影響您對預購的看法的，我認為這與您對定價的看法有點相吻合？

Well, we look at the executive orders, we pay attention to it, but we know what the rules are today, and we are ready for those rules. If they were to change then we'd be ready for that, too. I think one of the things we've been able to do is develop the suite of technologies we need. The California has already implemented low NOx engines and PACCAR has a NOx engine in California. So we can be available to that. And I think shift around, we'll be ready in that position as well.

好吧，我們看了行政命令，我們關注它，但我們知道今天的規則是什麼，我們已經為這些規則做好了準備。如果他們要改變那麼我們也會做好準備。我認為我們能夠做的事情之一就是開發我們所需的技術套件。加州已經實施了低氮氧化物發動機，PACCAR 在加州擁有一台氮氧化物發動機。因此我們可以做到這一點。而我認為，只要轉變一下，我們也會在這個位置上做好準備。

To the first question you asked about pricing in 2026 product shipments. I think as the market moves around and people are experiencing the great performance of the Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF trucks, we expect that we will see strengthening price position for ourselves as the course of the year progresses, right? We think that trend carries on even beyond '25 we anticipate.

對於您提出的第一個問題，是關於 2026 年產品出貨量的定價。我認為，隨著市場的變化以及人們體驗到 Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 卡車的出色表現，我們預計隨著時間的推移，我們會看到價格地位的加強，對嗎？我們認為這一趨勢還將持續到我們預計的 25 年以後。

And we hear the model year '26 start shipping in April. I know there'll be a little mix of '25S and '26s in 2Q. But is that accurate? We start getting some of the '26 models shipping in 2Q for this year?

我們聽說 26 年車型將於 4 月開始出貨。我知道第二季會有 25S 和 26 的混合。但這準確嗎？我們將於今年第二季開始出貨部分 26 款車型嗎？

Yeah. Your comment, David, there, I don't know what that is, but that doesn't resonate to me of a model year '26 shifting in April for us. So I'm not sure how to answer that.

是的。大衛，我不知道你的評論是什麼，但那並沒有引起我對於 26 年車型將在 4 月換代的共鳴。所以我不知道該如何回答這個問題。

Okay. We can talk offline. But basically, the higher pricing sequentially is what you're referencing as the year goes on however you want to name the model.

好的。我們可以線下聊聊。但基本上，隨著時間的推移，無論您想如何命名模型，您參考的都是連續更高的定價。

That's fair.

這很公平。

Our next question comes from Jerry Revich of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇（Jerry Revich）。

I wanted to ask on the per truck performance in terms of operating cost. Can you talk about the cadence that you expect over the next couple of quarters. It sounds like based on the gross margin guidance for the first quarter, maybe we're seeing a decline in per truck costs. I'm wondering based on your contract structures, et cetera. Can you just talk about the cadence over the next couple of quarters?

我想詢問每輛卡車的營運成本表現。您能談談您預計的未來幾季的節奏嗎？聽起來根據第一季的毛利率指引，也許我們會看到每輛卡車的成本下降。我對您的合約結構等等感到疑惑。您能談談接下來幾季的節奏嗎？

If you look at the cost per truck, Gary, in 2024, we saw some more content on trucks, especially in Europe, where we -- because of legal requirements, some are connected, ADAS and other features we added during the year. We expect those cost levels to be more or less stable as we enter the new year. But no specific special developments in 2025 as far as I can tell right now.

加里，如果你看看 2024 年每輛卡車的成本，我們會看到卡車上有更多的內容，特別是在歐洲，由於法律要求，有些卡車是聯網的，ADAS 和我們在年內添加的其他功能。我們預計，進入新的一年，這些成本水準將基本保持穩定。但據我目前所知，2025 年並沒有具體的特殊發展。

Okay. So -- and separately, on the topic of EPA 27, I appreciate the base case is it's going to move forward, but obviously, governments can make changes. In a scenario if there's an adverse legal ruling or something along those lines, can you talk about how the company would react in that scenario if we have different regulations for California and other states versus the rest of the US, how would you see that scenario playing out in your planning process?

好的。所以 — 另外，關於 EPA 27 的話題，我知道基本情況是它會向前推進，但顯然，政府可以做出改變。如果出現不利的法律裁決或類似情況，您能否談談如果加州和其他州與美國其他地區有不同的規定，公司將如何應對這種情況，您認為這種情況在您的規劃過程中會如何發揮作用？

One of the things that's great about PACCAR is the quality of the people in this company and our ability to be nimble and reactive is, I think, second to none. So I think if there are changes in regulations, there is nobody better at adjusting to those regulatory changes than the people at PACCAR. And so we'll make sure we have the right products in front of the customers that are going to give them the best operating condition for the regulatory environment.

帕卡 (PACCAR) 的一大優點在於公司員工的品質以及我們的靈活應變能力，我認為這些都是首屈一指的。因此我認為，如果法規發生變化，沒有人比 PACCAR 的員工更善於適應這些法規變化。因此，我們將確保向客戶提供合適的產品，為他們提供符合監管環境的最佳運作條件。

Appreciate it. Thank you.

非常感謝。謝謝。

Our next question comes from Jeff Kauffman of Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Kauffman。

Okay. two questions. Number one, I want to come back to -- the change in revenue per truck was down about 4.9. I think you mentioned 0.6 that was price. I'm assuming most of the rest of the difference is mix and currency. Could you give me an idea of how to think about that math.

好的。兩個問題。首先，我想回想一下——每輛卡車的收入變化下降了約 4.9。我認為您提到的是價格 0.6。我認為其餘大部分差異在於混合和貨幣。你能告訴我該如何思考這個數學問題嗎？

Like we said, I think more or less half of the impact is currency. And there is another element there that in the fourth quarter, the US and Canada have more holidays. So the mix was a little bit more heavily towards Europe and other markets outside the US but average sales prices -- trucks are smaller and average sales prices are lower.

正如我們所說的，我認為大約一半的影響是貨幣。還有一個因素是，第四季美國和加拿大的假期更多。因此，產品組合更側重於歐洲和美國以外的其他市場，但平均銷售價格——卡車較小，平均銷售價格較低。

Okay. And I just want to follow up on David Raso's question. Obviously, as the administration comes out with new rules is that you to comply where do you think -- ignoring '27 in the EPA, but are there other rulings that have been discussed, that would be risk worth thinking about in terms of its impact to PACCAR from the new administration?

好的。我只是想跟進大衛·拉索的問題。顯然，隨著政府出台新規，您認為要遵守哪些規定——忽略環保署第 27 條，但是否還有其他已討論過的裁決，新政府對 PACCAR 的影響是否值得考慮？

I don't think of them as risk as much as I think of them as opportunities. I think any time environments change, if you operate better than your competitors, then you'll find yourself in a winning position and that's where we intend to be.

我認為它們不是風險，而是機會。我認為，任何時候環境發生變化，如果你的營運比競爭對手更好，那麼你就會發現自己處於勝利的地位，這正是我們想要的。

So Preston, what would some of those opportunities be in your mind?

那麼普雷斯頓，您認為這些機會有哪些呢？

The fact that we produce local-for-local, have factories in the US where we produce the trucks for the US. Same in Mexico, Brazil, Europe makes us very well protected to things like tariffs, for example. So we feel we're in a really good spot there.

事實上，我們在當地進行生產，為當地客戶提供產品，我們在美國設有工廠，為美國生產卡車。墨西哥、巴西也是一樣，歐洲為我們提供了很好的關稅等方面的保護。因此，我們覺得我們目前處於一個非常好的位置。

Our next question comes from Michael Feniger of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的麥可費尼格。

Just PACCAR has clearly gained a lot of share. I realize it's because of your great trucks and your products, just I'm curious if we see other OEMs raising capacity, trying to go after your market share, pricing intensifies, I'm curious how you guys weigh the puts and takes there?

PACCAR 顯然已經獲得了很多份額。我知道這是因為你們擁有出色的卡車和產品，只是我很好奇，如果我們看到其他 OEM 提高產能，試圖搶佔你們的市場份額，定價加劇，我很好奇你們如何權衡利弊？

Is PACCAR more likely to continue to kind of price for your premium trucks and look to hold that margin? Or is it every year, your goal is to try to gain that level of market share? Is that not as linear? Is that more over a multi-cycle basis? Just kind of curious how you think about that because you guys have gained so much share and there is some other OEMs kind of raising capacity?

PACCAR 是否更有可能繼續為您的高檔卡車定價，並保持該利潤率？還是每年，您的目標都是努力獲得那個水準的市場佔有率？這不是線性的嗎？這是否更多是基於多周期基礎？只是有點好奇你們是怎麼想的，因為你們已經獲得瞭如此多的份額，而且還有其他一些 OEM 也在提高產能？

Yeah. The way we think about it is we try to, first off, make sure that we produce great trucks for our customers. And if we produce great trucks for our customers that are valuable to them, then they're willing to [pay us] for those trucks and share in that value equation. That's the most fundamental thing. The more we can do that for them, the better it works for us, and you gave a nod to the people that PACCAR producing great trucks.

是的。我們的想法是，首先，我們要確保為客戶生產優質的卡車。如果我們為客戶生產對他們有價值的優質卡車，那麼他們就會願意為這些卡車付錢給我們，並分享這個價值等式。這是最根本的事。我們為他們做的越多，對我們就越有利，您也對 PACCAR 生產出優質卡車的人表示認可。

I'd also share in that our dealers are really outstanding and do a good job of supporting our customers and going out there and showing them the benefits of our trucks. So it's really about great trucks that achieve benefits to our customer. That helps us maintain our premium position and allows us also to simultaneously gain market share.

我還想說的是，我們的經銷商非常出色，他們在支援客戶方面做得很好，並向他們展示了我們卡車的優勢。所以這其實是關乎為客戶帶來利益的優質卡車。這有助於我們保持領先地位，同時也使我們能夠獲得市場份額。

Great. And just on parts. The last three quarters, your revenue is up 4%. I think the pretax profit has been slightly down year-over-year. Is there anything on the last -- that you would want to flag on '24? I'm just curious as we kind of turn the page, does pretax profit -- does the parts profit kind of grow in line with sales as we kind of look at 2025? Just any moving pieces there would be helpful.

偉大的。並且僅限於部分。過去三個季度，你們的營收成長了 4%。我認為稅前利潤比去年同期略有下降。最後，您是否希望在‘24’上標記一些內容？我只是很好奇，當我們翻開新的一頁時，稅前利潤——當我們展望 2025 年時，零件利潤是否會與銷售額同步增長？任何移動的部件都會有幫助。

In 2024, we saw part sales increased by 4%. At the same time, we see that the market for auto sales for parts was down 2% or 3%. So growing our parts sales in a smaller market at excellent margins, that's a really impressive performance by the entire PACCAR Parts team. And as we go into 2025, we expect parts to grow by 2% to 4% for the year. So that will be another strong year for PACCAR parts.

2024年，我們看到零件銷售額成長了4%。同時，我們看到汽車零件銷售市場下降了2%或3%。因此，在較小的市場中以極好的利潤率提高我們的零件銷售額，對於整個 PACCAR 零件團隊來說這是一個非常令人印象深刻的表現。進入 2025 年，我們預計零件銷量將成長 2% 至 4%。因此，這對於 PACCAR 零件來說又將是強勁的一年。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Scott Group of Wolfe Research.

（操作員指示）我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

I just want to actually follow up on that last question. So if you think about last year, the markets down and parts sales are up 4%. And I guess this year, you think the market is flat to up, but the parts growth slows. So help me understand why we're not seeing a pickup in part sales if the market is improving.

我只是想進一步回答最後一個問題。如果你回想去年，市場下滑但零件銷售額卻上漲了 4%。我想，您認為今年市場將持平或上漲，但零件成長將放緩。那麼，如果市場正在好轉，請幫助我理解為什麼我們沒有看到零件銷售回升。

Well, one of the things is Harrie indicated, is like the cadence of the parts market last year and like the general market, it's going to be a tale of two halves, probably for the total market. So what we're talking about right now is Q1 and excellent parts performance in Q1, and we would expect to see then growth through the course of the year.

嗯，哈利指出的一件事是，就像去年零件市場的節奏和整個市場一樣，這將是兩個半場的故事，可能對於整個市場而言。所以我們現在談論的是第一季以及第一季的出色零件表現，我們預計全年都會出現成長。

It's strongly related to freight activity on the rest of the business. So it should also have that kind of cadence.

它與其他業務的貨運活動密切相關。所以它也應該有那種節奏。

Okay. That makes sense. And then I think you said 75% sold for the first quarter, half full for the second quarter. Just do you have any sort of context does that sort of about right, is that ahead of schedule, behind schedule? And then do you have any view of the order strength of late, has prebuy activity started yet? Or is that still all the come?

好的。這很有道理。然後我想您說過第一季售出了 75%，第二季售出了一半。您是否有任何背景信息，這是否正確，是提前完成了計劃，還是落後於計劃？那麼，您對最近的訂單強度有什麼看法，預購活動已經開始了嗎？或者這仍然是全部的結果？

Yes. We're in a fairly normal position for our backlogs, really kind of normal for this kind of part of the cycle. And I would say that the discussions around what people are going to do for the second half of '25 and then in '26 are happening. But I wouldn't say there's really been any significant order intake in that area.

是的。我們的積壓情況相當正常，對於這種週期部分來說確實很正常。我想說的是，人們正在討論 2025 年下半年以及 2026 年要做什麼。但我不會說該地區確實有任何大量的訂單量。

Our next question comes from Max Liss of Kepler Cheuvreux.

我們的下一個問題來自 Kepler Cheuvreux 的 Max Liss。

I just had a question about the European market. If you could give some flavor about different countries there and also how you see the market progress around '25. I mean you have the guidance, but if you could give some flavor there, please?

我只是想問一下歐洲市場。您能否介紹一下那裡的不同國家，以及您如何看待 25 年左右的市場發展。我的意思是您有指導，但是您能提供一些指導嗎？

Yes, sure. Let me start and then Harrie can add some thoughts to it. I mean the general sense for us is the European economy is maybe going to experience slight growth, I think really slight potentially in Germany. What we saw last year is that the Eastern -- Central and Eastern European markets were softer because of geopolitics, I would say. So that has some impact on the market overall. We'll see if that continues through this year. And that kind of leads to, I think, people in Europe feeling moderately okay about the market. Harrie, I don't know what you would add to that.

是的，當然。讓我先開始，然後哈利可以補充一些想法。我的意思是，我們總體上認為歐洲經濟可能會經歷輕微成長，我認為德國經濟的成長潛力真的很小。我想說，去年我們看到的是，由於地緣政治原因，東歐、中歐和東歐市場表現疲軟。所以這對整個市場有一定影響。我們將看看這種情況是否會持續到今年。我認為，這會導致歐洲人對市場感覺還算良好。哈里，我不知道你對此還有什麼補充。

Overall, markets in Europe last year was down 8%. And then we talk about Western Europe, maybe down 5%, but Central and Eastern Europe in the 20% range. So especially countries like Poland, Lithuania are more impacted. And DAF has a strong presence there. So it has a little bit bigger impact on DAF than it maybe has on some of our competitors. But looking into 2025, the market and the range that we guided, that's a good market in which PACCAR should do really well.

總體而言，去年歐洲市場下跌了 8%。然後我們談談西歐，可能下降了 5%，但中歐和東歐則在 20% 左右。因此，波蘭、立陶宛等國家受到的影響尤其大。DAF 在那裡具有強大的影響力。因此，它對 DAF 的影響可能比對我們的一些競爭對手的影響要大一些。但展望 2025 年，按照我們預期的市場和範圍，那將是一個 PACCAR 應該會表現良好的良好市場。

Okay. Great. And could you just add a comment there regarding your capacity utilization in Europe with DAF

好的。偉大的。您能否補充一下您與 DAF 在歐洲的產能利用率的評論？

Capacity utilization is good?

產能利用率好嗎？

We have capacity for when the market grows. We continue to make smart investments in the factories there. We have our factory in the UK factory in the Netherlands. And so we can produce the trucks we need to. We continue to make those factories more and more efficient.

當市場成長時，我們有能力。我們繼續對那裡的工廠進行明智的投資。我們在英國有工廠，在荷蘭也有工廠。這樣我們就可以生產我們需要的卡車。我們將繼續提高這些工廠的效率。

And the back -- or the coverage there for first and second quarter is about the same as the average that you mentioned for the whole group.

第一季和第二季的覆蓋率與您提到的整個集團的平均水平大致相同。

Yes, that's correct. Europe is more or less in line with what Preston just mentioned in the total group.

是的，正確。歐洲整體情況跟普雷斯頓剛才提到的差不多。

We have no further questions in the queue at this time. So I'll hand back over to the management team for any further or final remarks.

目前我們沒有其他問題。因此，我將把發言權交還給管理團隊，以便他們可以做出進一步或最後的評論。

I'd like to thank everyone for joining the call, and thank you, Charlie.

我想感謝大家參加電話會議，也謝謝你，查理。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路了。