帕卡 (PCAR) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）今天的通話正在錄音。

(Operator Instructions) I'd now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

（操作員須知） 現在我想介紹一下PACCAR 投資者關係總監Ken Hastings 先生。黑斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Brice Poplawski, Vice President and Controller.

早安.我們歡迎那些透過電話和網路廣播收聽的人。我叫肯‧黑斯廷斯 (Ken Hastings)，是 PACCAR 投資者關係總監。今天早上和我一起的還有執行長 Preston Feight； Harrie Schippers，總裁兼財務長；以及副總裁兼財務長 Brice Poplawski。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive considerations that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the Investor Relations page of paccar.com.

與先前的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有線上媒體成員都參與僅聽模式。今天提供的某些資訊將具有前瞻性，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的一般經濟和競爭因素。如需了解更多信息，請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件和 paccar.com 的投資者關係頁面。

I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

現在我想介紹一下普雷斯頓費特。

Good morning. Harrie, Brice, Ken and I will update you on our excellent first quarter results and business highlights. I'd like to begin by thanking PACCAR's outstanding employees who do a great job providing our customers with the highest quality trucks and transportation solutions in the industry. PACCAR achieved excellent revenues and net income in the first quarter due to the strong performance of its truck aftermarket parts and financial services businesses.

早安. Harrie、Brice、Ken 和我將向您介紹我們出色的第一季業績和業務亮點。首先，我要感謝 PACCAR 的優秀員工，他們出色地為我們的客戶提供了業內最優質的卡車和運輸解決方案。由於卡車售後零件和金融服務業務的強勁表現，佩卡第一季實現了出色的營收和淨利潤。

PACCAR achieved revenues of $8.74 billion and net income of $1.2 billion. This is comparable to adjusted net income of $1.18 billion in the first quarter of last year. Truck Parts and other gross margins were 19% in the first quarter. PACCAR's margin is benefiting from investments in new truck models, good global performance and PACCAR Parts continued growth. PACCAR Parts achieved record quarterly pretax income of $456 million, 6% higher than the $439 million earned in the first quarter of 2023. 2024 quarterly parts revenues increased to $1.68 billion, and we are pleased with the continued growth at PACCAR Parts after a record-setting 2023.

PACCAR 實現營收 87.4 億美元，淨利 12 億美元。這與去年第一季 11.8 億美元的調整後淨利相當。第一季卡車零件和其他毛利率為 19%。佩卡的利潤得益於對新卡車車型的投資、良好的全球業績以及佩卡零件的持續成長。 PACCAR Parts 實現創紀錄的季度稅前收入4.56 億美元，比2023 年第一季的4.39 億美元高出6%。的持續成長感到高興設定2023。

PACCAR Financial had a good quarter, achieving pretax income of $114 million. These results are comparable to the fourth quarter of 2023. Looking at the U.S. economy, GDP is estimated to grow 2.4% this year with a resilient labor market and healthy consumer spending. The vocational sector where Peterbilt and Kenworth are the market leaders remain strong with continued infrastructure investments. The less-than-truckload market is also performing well, while being offset by a softer Truckload segment. Kenworth and Peterbilt share in the first quarter was 30.3%, up from 27% in the same period last year.

PACCAR Financial 季度表現不錯，實現稅前收入 1.14 億美元。這些結果與 2023 年第四季相當。彼得比爾特和肯沃斯作為市場領導者的職業行業由於持續的基礎設施投資而保持強勁。零擔市場也表現良好，但被卡車裝載市場疲軟所抵消。 Kenworth和Peterbilt第一季的市佔率為30.3%，高於去年同期的27%。

Overall, we estimate this year's U.S. and Canadian Class 8 market to be in a range of 250,000 to 290,000 trucks. In the medium-duty markets, the new best-in-class Kenworth and Peterbilt models increased their combined first quarter share to 17%. We expect this year's medium-duty market to be around 100,000 units. In Europe, economies and the truck market are softer this year. DAF's premium new trucks provide customers with the latest technology and best operating efficiency. We project the 2024 European above 16-tonne market to be in a range of 260,000 to 300,000 trucks. The South American above 16-tonne truck market is expected to be in the range of 105,000 to 115,000 vehicles this year.

總體而言，我們估計今年美國和加拿大 8 級卡車市場的數量將在 25 萬至 29 萬輛之間。在中型市場，同類最佳的新型 Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 型號第一季的綜合份額增加至 17%。我們預計今年中型車市場銷售將在10萬輛左右。在歐洲，今年的經濟和卡車市場都較為疲軟。 DAF 的優質新型卡車為客戶提供最新的技術和最佳的營運效率。我們預計 2024 年歐洲 16 噸以上市場的卡車數量將在 26 萬至 30 萬輛之間。南美洲16噸以上卡車市場預計今年將在105,000至115,000輛之間。

In Brazil, DAF achieved a record 10.7% share in the first quarter compared to 8.6% in the same period last year. DAF trucks are highly desired by customers in South America and the region is an important part of PACCAR's growth and success. In the third quarter of last year, PACCAR announced a commercial vehicle battery joint venture. And construction of the 21-gigawatt hour factory located in Mississippi is expected to begin this quarter.

在巴西，DAF 第一季的市佔率達到創紀錄的 10.7%，而去年同期為 8.6%。 DAF 卡車深受南美洲客戶的青睞，該地區是 PACCAR 發展和成功的重要組成部分。去年第三季度，PACCAR宣布成立商用車電池合資公司。位於密西西比州的 21 吉瓦時工廠預計將於本季開始建設。

PACCAR anticipates investing $600 million to $900 million over the next several years in this factory to create cost-efficient commercial vehicle batteries. PACCAR's industry-leading trucks, expanding Parts business, best-in-class financial services and advanced technology strategy position the company well for an excellent future. Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on truck deliveries, PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial Services and other business highlights. Harrie?

PACCAR 預計未來幾年將在該工廠投資 6 億至 9 億美元，以生產具有成本效益的商用車電池。佩卡業界領先的卡車、不斷擴大的零件業務、一流的金融服務和先進的技術策略為公司奠定了良好的未來基礎。 Harrie Schippers 現在將提供有關卡車交付、PACCAR 零件、PACCAR 金融服務和其他業務亮點的最新資訊。哈里？

Thanks, Preston. PACCAR delivered 48,100 trucks during the first quarter and anticipate second quarter deliveries to be around 48,000. PACCAR achieved excellent truck parts and other gross margins of 19% in the first quarter. We anticipate second quarter margins to be strong and in the range of 18% to 18.5%. And PACCAR Parts had an outstanding first quarter with price gross margins of 32.5%. We estimate Parts sales to grow by 4% to 6% in the second quarter following last year's record performance.

謝謝，普雷斯頓。 PACCAR 第一季交付了 48,100 輛卡車，預計第二季交付量約為 48,000 輛。 PACCAR第一季卡車零件和其他毛利率達到19%，表現出色。我們預計第二季利潤率將強勁，介於 18% 至 18.5% 之間。 PACCAR Parts 第一季的價格毛利率表現出色，達到 32.5%。我們預計，繼去年創紀錄的業績之後，第二季零件銷售額將成長 4% 至 6%。

PACCAR Parts' excellent long-term growth reflects the benefits of investments in transportation solutions that increase vehicle uptime and convenience for customers. PACCAR aftermarket Parts business provides strong profitability through all phases of the business cycle. PACCAR Parts has 19 parts distribution centers or PDCs worldwide, and is expanding its global distribution network with the construction of a new PDC in Germany, which will open this year. PACCAR Financial Services benefited in the first quarter from excellent portfolio quality.

PACCAR Parts 出色的長期成長反映了對運輸解決方案的投資所帶來的好處，這些解決方案可以增加車輛的正常運行時間並為客戶提供便利。佩卡售後零件業務在整個商業週期的各個階段都提供強勁的獲利能力。 PACCAR Parts 在全球擁有 19 個零件分銷中心或 PDC，並正在擴大其全球分銷網絡，在德國建造了一個新的 PDC，該中心將於今年開業。佩卡金融服務公司第一季受益於出色的投資組合品質。

Pretax income was $114 million. Used truck prices have normalized. With its largest portfolio, and superb credit quality, PACCAR Financial is having another good year. PACCAR achieved an industry-leading return on invested capital of 28% in the first quarter.

稅前收入為 1.14 億美元。二手卡車價格已正常化。憑藉其最大的投資組合和卓越的信用質量，PACCAR Financial 又迎來了美好的一年。 PACCAR 第一季的投資資本回報率達到了行業領先的 28%。

In 2024, we're planning capital investments in the range of $700 million to $750 million and R&D expenses in the range of $460 million to $500 million as we continue to invest in key technology and innovation projects. These include clean diesel combustion engines, battery and hydrogen electric powertrains, advanced driver assistance systems and new connected vehicle services. PACCAR is also investing in manufacturing capacity to support future growth, including expansions at Kenworth, Peterbilt, PACCAR Mexico, and DAF in Brazil and Europe. We're also investing in a new PACCAR engine remanufacturing facility in Columbus, Mississippi and in the new battery joint venture. We expect 2024 to be an excellent year. Thank you. We're pleased to answer your questions.

2024年，我們計畫資本投資在7億至7.5億美元之間，研發費用在4.6億至5億美元之間，持續投資關鍵技術與創新項目。其中包括清潔柴油引擎、電池和氫氣電動動力系統、先進的駕駛員輔助系統和新型連網車輛服務。佩卡還投資於製造能力，以支持未來的成長，包括肯沃斯、彼得比爾特、佩卡墨西哥以及巴西和歐洲的 DAF 的擴張。我們也投資了位於密西西比州哥倫布市的新佩卡引擎再製造工廠以及新的電池合資企業。我們預計 2024 年將是極好的一年。謝謝。我們很高興回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question for today comes from Tami Zakaria from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tami Zakaria。

So my first question is on the deliveries for the second quarter, 48,000 around. Can you provide some color on how to think about deliveries that geography in the second quarter?

所以我的第一個問題是關於第二季的交付量，大約 48,000 輛。您能否提供一些關於如何考慮第二季交付情況的資訊？

Harrie, do you want to offer any comments?

哈里，你有什麼意見嗎？

Sure. I think, Tami. The spread over the geographies will be very similar to the first quarter. I don't think we expect too many big changes. I think Europe, North America, the rest of the world should be at similar levels, more or less, some variation, of course, but pretty close.

當然。我想，塔米。各地區的分佈將與第一季非常相似。我認為我們預計不會有太多重大變化。我認為歐洲、北美和世界其他地區應該處於相似的水平，或多或少，當然會有一些差異，但非常接近。

Got it. So my follow-up is how the dealer inventory looking like in North America, the reason I asked seems like your deliveries in North America was up almost 14% year-over-year in the first quarter, but some industry data vendors suggest that retail sales were down in the quarter. So do you -- can you comment on the health of the inventory in the channel?

知道了。所以我的後續是北美的經銷商庫存情況如何，我問的原因似乎是第一季你們在北美的交付量同比增長了近14%，但一些行業數據供應商表明零售該季度的銷售額有所下降。那麼您能評論一下通路中庫存的健康狀況嗎？

Sure. Happy to do that. First off, if you look at our inventory, it's really less than 3 months of inventory in the Class 8 side of it, when the industry is a little bit higher than us. One of the things to think about when you consider PACCAR's inventories are strong vocational market share. If you think about the fact that a vocational truck takes maybe 6 months longer to put into service, it means there's additional time. So the stronger vocational market has a natural cadence to increasing inventory. But overall, our inventory is in very good shape, and our market share is increasing. So we saw market share growth from 4Q to 1Q. We expect that we have the right mix of build and a healthy inventory. All feels pretty good.

當然。很高興這樣做。首先，如果你看看我們的庫存，8 級方面的庫存確實不到 3 個月，而產業比我們高一點。當您考慮 PACCAR 的庫存時，要考慮的事情之一是強大的職業市場份額。如果您考慮到職業卡車可能需要 6 個月的時間才能投入使用，這意味著還有額外的時間。因此，強勁的職業市場自然會增加庫存。但總體而言，我們的庫存狀況非常好，而且我們的市場份額正在增加。因此，我們看到市場份額從第四季度到第一季有所增長。我們希望擁有正確的建造組合和健康的庫存。一切感覺都還不錯。

Our next question comes from Angel Castillo of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的安吉爾·卡斯蒂略。

Congrats on a strong quarter. Just wanted to go back to your comment, I guess, to the prior question. Just in terms of the second quarter level of delivery is being similar to the first quarter, very strong deliveries in North America if we kind of assume similar deliveries in the second quarter were run rating at quite positive rates. So I just wanted to kind of then bridge that to the lowered guide for shipments for the full industry for North America. So can you help us understand what is otherwise a very strong first half, inventories that seem to be kind of at a good level versus an industry view that seems to be little bit more modest? Is it market share? Is it something specific to the second half? Just again, help us bridge that and understand the change.

恭喜季度表現強勁。我想只是想回到你的評論，回到之前的問題。就第二季的交付水準而言，與第一季相似，如果我們假設第二季類似的交付量以相當積極的比率運行，那麼北美的交付量非常強勁。所以我只是想將其與降低的北美整個行業的出貨量指南聯繫起來。那麼，您能否幫助我們了解上半年非常強勁的情況，即庫存似乎處於較高水平，而行業觀點似乎更為溫和？是市佔率嗎？這是下半場特有的事嗎？再次，幫助我們彌合這一點並理解變化。

Yes, sure, happy to delve in that. First of all, the adjustment is a small adjustment and a midpoint of 270,000, we think, is a great market in North America. But also I think what you're seeing, we're reflecting as PACCAR is that we're continuing to demonstrate that our business is structurally stronger, that the margins are higher, that our market share is increasing in the U.S. and Canada, both in heavy duty and medium duty.

是的，當然，很高興深入研究這一點。首先，這次調整是一個小調整，中間點27萬，我們認為，北美是一個很大的市場。但我認為你所看到的，我們作為 PACCAR 所反映的是，我們正在繼續證明我們的業務在結構上更加強大，利潤率更高，我們在美國和加拿大的市場份額正在增加重型和中型。

And so we feel good about the way the market is going for PACCAR, which is obviously a place we know the most about, and we feel very good about it.

因此，我們對 PACCAR 的市場走向感到滿意，這顯然是我們最了解的地方，我們對此感覺非常好。

But maybe just from a broader industry perspective, was there anything in particular that kind of triggered the modest change?

但也許從更廣泛的行業角度來看，是否有什麼特別的事情引發了這種適度的變化？

Yes, I think so. If we look at it and you said, we already mentioned the strong vocational market and the strong LTL market in our comments. And we do see the Truckload segment having continued softness, and you heard that in some of the public companies calls -- think that's balanced against the fact that at some point, they want to stay on their cadence of buying and that cadence is going to need to continue. So that's why we think the market is good for 2024. And then we would expect '25 and '26 to start to look even more positive as we head into the 2027 emission cycle.

是的，我想是這樣。如果我們看看它，你說，我們已經在評論中提到了強勁的職業市場和強勁的零擔市場。我們確實看到卡車裝載市場持續疲軟，並且您聽到一些上市公司的電話 - 認為這與以下事實相平衡：在某些時候，他們希望保持購買節奏，而這種節奏將需要繼續。這就是為什麼我們認為 2024 年市場良好。

That's helpful. And then just lastly, just on the order books, could you just help us or just remind us where you're at in terms of kind of 2Q order book fill rate, 3Q and 4Q, at least industry data, it seemed like 2Q and 3Q are pretty full. Just help us understand the cadence of what kind of those rates are at now.

這很有幫助。最後，就訂單簿而言，您能否幫助我們或提醒我們，在第二季度訂單簿填充率、第三季度和第四季度，至少是行業數據方面，您所處的位置，似乎是第二季和3Q已經很滿了。只是幫助我們了解目前這些利率的節奏。

Yes. We have good fill in the second quarter, substantially full through all markets and filling nicely into the third quarter now.

是的。我們在第二季的填充情況良好，幾乎所有市場都已填充，現在第三季的填充情況也很好。

Our next question comes from Robert Wertheimer of Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Robert Wertheimer。

I had a question just on the interest rate sensitivity where, I guess, historically, trucks have been perceived to be a market that you can stimulate or not with rising lower rates from the Fed. And are you seeing that as rates have risen, has that been a major factor in either new or used purchases? And to your earlier comments, Preston, it seems like vocational is a great setup right now. Is that less sensitive to vagaries of interest rates just because of megaproject demand infrastructure or older fleets. So just maybe any comments you have on that risk.

我有一個關於利率敏感性的問題，我想，從歷史上看，卡車一直被認為是一個可以透過聯準會降低利率來刺激或不刺激的市場。您是否發現，隨著利率上升，這是否成為購買新產品或二手產品的主要因素？根據你之前的評論，普雷斯頓，職業目前似乎是一個很好的設定。是否僅僅因為大型專案需求基礎設施或舊船隊而對利率變化不那麼敏感？所以也許您對這種風險有任何評論。

Robert, starting on the interest rate. So higher interest rates, of course, make trucks more expensive to lease for many of our customers. So it does have some impact there. But please also bear in mind that customers are buying a new truck today, they replace a 3 or 4 year old truck and that new truck comes with significant better fuel efficiency somewhere in the 7% to 12% range. So that offsets some of those higher interest rate payments. But of course, you're right, our customers would like lower interest rates, they always do.

羅伯特，從利率開始。當然，較高的利率會使我們許多客戶的卡車租賃成本更高。所以它確實在那裡產生了一些影響。但也請記住，客戶今天購買一輛新卡車，他們更換了 3 或 4 年的舊卡車，新卡車的燃油效率顯著提高，在 7% 至 12% 範圍內。因此，這抵消了部分較高的利率支付。但當然，你是對的，我們的客戶希望降低利率，他們總是這樣做。

But as a percentage of their total just out in what Harrie's saying, it's a percentage of the total business for them, it's not that significant. And I think we also look at it and say, like interest rates are in pretty normal levels from a long-term history standpoint. So with the economy moving along nicely with economic growth expected, we think it should be a good year.

但正如哈利所說，佔他們總業務的百分比，這只是他們總業務的百分比，並不是那麼重要。我認為我們也會審視這一點並說，從長期歷史的角度來看，利率處於相當正常的水平。因此，隨著經濟的良好發展和預期的經濟成長，我們認為今年應該是美好的一年。

Perfect. And then is vocational a different market. And I wonder if you could just comment on -- you mentioned it stronger. It seems obviously stronger. Just any comment on the bifurcation between that and the long-haul segment, how big that is or how wide that is, if it is more resilient given the infrastructure stuff.

完美的。然後職業是一個不同的市場。我想知道你是否可以評論一下——你提到的更強烈。看起來明顯更強了。只是對長途運輸和長途運輸之間的分歧發表任何評論，它有多大或多寬，考慮到基礎設施是否更具彈性。

Sure. Great topic for us. And you think about it, we have over 40% share in the vocational market between Kenworth and Peterbilt. It's -- I mean, this is not a perfect number, but it's roughly 25% of the total market. Obviously, it varies plus or minus, and is exceptionally strong right now. Backlog is effectively full for that market through much of the year. We're kind of stacked up at body builders. So that bodes well for Kenworth and Peterbilt for the balance of the year and going forward. And we think just as you look at the infrastructure spending in the country, and that's continuing to happen, and it's going to continue to be strong for us.

當然。對我們來說很棒的話題。你想一想，我們在 Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 之間的職業市場佔有超過 40% 的份額。我的意思是，這不是一個完美的數字，但它大約佔整個市場的 25%。顯然，它有正有負，而且現在異常強勁。在一年中的大部分時間裡，該市場的積壓訂單實際上已滿。我們有點像健美運動員。因此，這對肯沃斯和彼得比爾特來說是今年剩餘時間和未來的好兆頭。我們認為，就像你看看該國的基礎設施支出一樣，這種情況正在持續發生，對我們來說將繼續強勁。

Our next question comes from Steve Volkmann of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的史蒂夫福克曼 (Steve Volkmann)。

I guess we'll get more detail in the queue, but can you just comment on how pricing is looking these days?

我想我們會在隊列中獲得更多詳細信息，但是您能否評論一下這些天的定價情況？

Brice, do you want to share anything price?

Brice，想分享價格嗎？

Yes. Our pricing is approximately 3% higher, and that's very much in line with costs, Stephen.

是的。我們的定價大約高出 3%，這與成本非常相符，Stephen。

Got it. And then I'm curious, Preston, I think you said that you thought '25 and '26 would be improved or I think more positive, I wrote down here. Are you thinking that we will start to see some prebuy as early as '25? I know there's a very big price increase coming here. Just your thoughts about how that plays out.

知道了。然後我很好奇，普雷斯頓，我想你說過你認為'25和'26會得到改進，或者我認為更積極，我在這裡寫下了。您是否認為我們最早會在 25 年開始看到一些預購？我知道這裡的價格會大幅上漲。只是您對結果如何的想法。

Yes, I do. I think, obviously, the future is unknowable caveat that for you. But I would say that when you look at the buying cycle and trucks are being run and the fact that people are sensitive to those emissions changes, that it should help '25 and '26 be very strong years for the industry. And I think the question that everybody is kind of trying to figure out is when will that start and how significant will that initiation point begin. So for right now, what we look at is the trucks we're producing are the best trucks we've ever built. They have great efficiency, and they're not only great new trucks, but they're also great used trucks in a few years. So between that spot, the '25 and '26 strengthening market, I think, all feels really good.

是的，我願意。我認為，顯然，未來對你來說是不可知的。但我想說，當你觀察購買週期和卡車的運行情況以及人們對這些排放變化敏感的事實時，這應該有助於 25 和 26 年對該行業來說是非常強勁的年份。我認為每個人都想弄清楚的問題是何時開始以及該起始點開始的意義有多大。因此，目前我們所關注的是我們正在生產的卡車是我們製造過的最好的卡車。它們具有很高的效率，不僅是很棒的新卡車，而且幾年後它們也是很棒的二手卡車。因此，我認為，在 25 年和 26 年加強市場之間，一切都感覺非常好。

Our next question is from Jamie Cook of Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Jamie Cook。

Just on the answer to Steve's question, the 3% price that you said in line with costs. Was that -- can you, I guess, extinguish between truck OE and aftermarket? And then I guess, any commentary on pricing in the remaining 3 quarters. I'm just curious like your truck deliveries in the second quarter are similar to first, but margins are expected to be lower in the second quarter versus the first quarter. So any color on that?

剛才回答史蒂夫的問題，你說的3%的價格是符合成本的。我想，你能在卡車原廠設備和售後市場之間熄滅嗎？然後我想，剩餘三個季度的定價評論。我只是好奇你們第二季的卡車交付量與第一季相似，但預計第二季的利潤率將低於第一季。那麼有什麼顏色嗎？

And then I guess, follow-up, Preston. Obviously, margins have been very strong. As we're going through the cycle and demand is starting to, I guess, moderate. Any view on structurally how much you think your margins have improved versus potentially having to give a step back on price, just related to the market share and the new truck introduction. Just wondering how you're structurally thinking about margin improvement this cycle.

然後我想，後續行動，普雷斯頓。顯然，利潤率非常高。我想，當我們經歷這個週期時，需求開始放緩。從結構上看，你認為你的利潤提高了多少，而不是可能不得不在價格上退一步，這與市場份額和新卡車的推出有關。只是想知道您如何從結構上考慮本週期的利潤率改善。

You bet, Jamie. There's a lot of questions in there, but it's good to hear you. So I'd say to start with on the truck side, the price versus cost is 3 and 3. And on the Parts side, price is 3 and cost is 2. So that kind of helps you there kind of expect something maybe in a similar range going forward through the course of the year. That all, of course, leads into your questions on margin and I look at the margins.

你敢打賭，傑米。裡面有很多問題，但很高興聽到你的聲音。所以我想說，從卡車方面開始，價格與成本是 3 和 3。當然，這一切都會引出你關於利潤的問題，我會專注在利潤上。

One of the things we're really proud of our people at PACCAR are creating these great trucks, these great parts business systems because it is delivering these structurally stronger margins for everyone. Really happy with how that's going. The fact that we delivered a 19% margin in a time when there's a truckload carriers are a bit softer, feels really positive. And the fact that we shared with you the second quarter looks like 18% and 18.5%, really strong margins for the company, which is showing that we can demonstrate excellent performance through all parts of the business cycle. Really pleased with the team for what they're doing.

我們真正為 PACCAR 員工感到自豪的一件事是創造這些偉大的卡車、這些偉大的零件業務系統，因為它為每個人帶來了結構上更強勁的利潤。對事情的進展感到非常滿意。事實上，在整車承運商表現稍微疲軟的情況下，我們實現了 19% 的利潤率，這讓人感覺非常積極。我們與您分享的事實是，第二季公司的利潤率看起來非常強勁，分別為 18% 和 18.5%，這表明我們可以在整個商業週期的各個部分展示出色的業績。對團隊所做的事情非常滿意。

Our next question comes from Chad Dillard from Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的查德·迪拉德。

So I was hoping to get to your thoughts on the shape of the cycle. I think Preston, you mentioned that '25 to '26 would be a better year versus '24. Just want to get a sense for whether you're seeing a bottom in orders, like what gives you that confidence? And then do you think capacity needs to leave the market before you see an order rebound?

所以我希望了解您對週期形狀的想法。我想普雷斯頓，你提到 25 到 26 年會比 24 年更好。只是想了解您是否看到訂單觸底，例如什麼給了您信心？那麼您認為在看到訂單反彈之前，產能是否需要離開市場？

Well, I think that right now, if I get with you, Chad, it's that what we're seeing is truckload sector, people want to keep buying trucks. They're concerned about getting aged inventory. They want to stay on buying cycle. I think that there is capacity out there, obviously. It's a very normal cycle is what it feels like right now, a healthy normal cycle. And their question is, when does this thing turn and when do they need to make sure that they're continuing to get their orders placed. So the conversations are their interest in the future and what's that going to look like? Is it 3 months from now, 6 months from now, a year from now, that they need to make sure they have acquired the capital and the trucks that they need.

好吧，我認為現在，如果我同意你的觀點，查德，我們看到的是卡車裝載行業，人們想要繼續購買卡車。他們擔心獲得陳舊的庫存。他們希望保持購買週期。我認為顯然那裡有能力。這是一個非常正常的週期，就像現在的感覺一樣，一個健康的正常週期。他們的問題是，事情什麼時候會轉變，他們什麼時候需要確保他們繼續下訂單。所以對話是他們對未來的興趣，那會是什麼樣子呢？是從現在起 3 個月後、6 個月後還是一年後，他們需要確保他們已經獲得了所需的資金和卡車。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just -- I'd like to get a little bit of color on your product strategy as you're pushing the prebuy. I know you guys did a pretty good job in Europe when there's a regulation change and introduced some new products that are real time with that. Just any color on how you're thinking about like the next couple of years on that.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，我想在你們推動預購的過程中了解你們的產品策略。我知道你們在歐洲當法規改變時做得很好，並推出了一些即時的新產品。只是關於你如何思考未來幾年的任何顏色。

On our product strategy? Let's share it. First of all, again, a shout out to the team, what they've accomplished. There are a couple of things I'd like to mention on that. One is from a product strategy standpoint, we just introduced the new model 589 at Peterbilt in January, which is a fantastic new truck, an iconic truck.

關於我們的產品策略？讓我們分享一下。首先，再次向團隊致敬，他們所取得的成就。對此我想提幾點。一是從產品策略的角度來看，我們一月剛在彼得比爾特推出了新車型 589，這是一款非常棒的新卡車，一款標誌性卡車。

It's doing really well in the market. So it's just part of our continued rollout of new products. The new medium-duty products in North America are doing exceptionally well. We see the market share continuing to grow. End of last year, we're at 14.5%, gone to 17% and medium duty with really strong margin performance. And then if I think more broadly about strategies of product introductions, we're continuing to develop new trucks, new engines, new alternative energy capability so that we have a very capable powertrain portfolio to handle the emissions changes that are coming forward and the uncertainty, frankly, that the industry will experience with regulations. So it feels like PACCAR is very well positioned to handle anything that comes forward at us.

它在市場上的表現確實很好。因此，這只是我們持續推出新產品的一部分。新的中型產品在北美的表現非常出色。我們看到市場佔有率持續成長。去年年底，我們的稅率為 14.5%，現已升至 17%，中等稅率，利潤率表現非常強勁。然後，如果我更廣泛地考慮產品推出策略，我們將繼續開發新卡車、新引擎、新替代能源能力，以便我們擁有非常強大的動力系統產品組合來應對即將到來的排放變化和不確定性坦白說，該行業將經歷監管。所以感覺佩卡非常有能力處理我們遇到的任何問題。

And if I may add there, Preston, that the 2027 emissions that we will see nationwide, what CARB is doing this year is already very similar in 2024. And we will launch a PACCAR engine in California that meets their requirements this year. So we'll get -- we'll know exactly which technology to apply there.

Preston，如果我可以補充一點，我們將在全國範圍內看到 2027 年的排放量，CARB 今年所做的事情已經與 2024 年非常相似。所以我們會確切地知道在那裡應用哪種技術。

Our next question comes from David Raso from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

I'm curious about Europe. The deliveries for the first half of the year, it looks like you're planning to be down around 31% and the market guide, your midpoint is down 18%. You didn't change the guide for the industry. Just wanted to get your thoughts on, is that level of delivery clearing out inventory? Or just trying to understand your considerations of lowering the European industry guide when you're going through these numbers. Just trying to get a sense of how you view that market the rest of the year.

我對歐洲很好奇。今年上半年的交貨量，看起來你們計劃下降 31% 左右，而根據市場指南，你們的中點下降 18%。您沒有改變行業指南。只是想了解您的想法，這種交付水準是否可以清理庫存？或者只是想了解您在查看這些數字時降低歐洲行業指南的考慮。只是想了解您如何看待今年剩餘時間的市場。

Yes, I think I'll start and Harrie can add whatever he'd like to. I would say that the European truck market has seen softening, and that's especially true in Central and Eastern Europe, which are strong markets for DAF. So we've seen those delivery numbers adjust appropriately around that. And we have the build dialed into the delivery schedule. So we think that the new DAF truck continues to deliver for PACCAR great margin performance, which is a pretty important thing for us with this new product, it's delivering great fuel economy for our customers. And so I think that you're just seeing the cadence of the market down and we would expect to see that probably continue throughout the year. Maybe you'd add, Harrie?

是的，我想我會開始，哈利可以添加他想要添加的任何內容。我想說，歐洲卡車市場已經疲軟，尤其是中歐和東歐，這是達夫的強勁市場。因此，我們看到這些交付數量圍繞著這一點進行了適當調整。我們已將建置納入交付計劃中。因此，我們認為新型 DAF 卡車將繼續為 PACCAR 帶來巨大的利潤表現，這對我們這款新產品來說非常重要，它為我們的客戶提供了出色的燃油經濟性。因此，我認為您只是看到市場節奏下降，我們預計這種情況可能會持續一整年。也許你會補充一下，哈利？

Coming off -- we're also coming off a record quarter in last year. First quarter of 2023 was record quarter for DAF in Europe, and so a lot of that what Preston's talking about the fuel economy benefits and the great performance of the new truck. So the comps are getting a little bit more difficult, too, there.

去年我們也創下了創紀錄的季度業績。 2023 年第一季是 DAF 在歐洲創紀錄的季度，因此 Preston 所說的許多內容都是燃油經濟性優勢和新卡車的出色性能。所以比賽也變得更困難了。

Yes. I mean the comp does ease in the fourth quarter, too. I'm just trying to get a sense of should we expect deliveries to be that far below your industry outlook for most of the year in Europe. Again, I know the fourth quarter gets easier. And then...

是的。我的意思是第四季的競爭也有所緩解。我只是想了解一下，我們是否應該預期歐洲一年中大部分時間的交付量會遠低於你們的產業前景。再說一次，我知道第四季會變得更容易。進而...

I wouldn't read in that way, David.

我不會那樣讀書，大衛。

(inaudible).

（聽不清楚）。

I wouldn't try to read it for the full year that way. And then I think the U.S. Canada, the delivery schedule seems really solid and stable for us right now. We've again, the thing I would want to remind is a 270,000 truck market at the midpoint, it's a very nice market. And with PACCAR share increasing, that feels positive to us.

我不會嘗試以這種方式讀一整年。然後我認為美國和加拿大的交貨時間表目前對我們來說似乎非常可靠和穩定。我想再次提醒的是，中間有一個 27 萬輛卡車市場，這是一個非常好的市場。隨著 PACCAR 份額的增加，這對我們來說是積極的。

Yes. I think we're just trying to figure out if like U.S. Canada first half of the year, deliveries are up 8%, but we're looking for Class 8 as an industry to be down 9% medium is some offset, but we're just trying to get a sense of like the second half of the year, how much does the U.S.-Canada build schedule come down? And that's sort of what we're trying to...

是的。我認為我們只是想弄清楚今年上半年的交付量是否像美國和加拿大一樣增長了 8%，但我們正在尋找 8 級作為一個行業下降 9% 的中值，這會有所抵消，但我們'我們只是想了解今年下半年的情況，美國-加拿大的建設計畫下降了多少？這就是我們正在嘗試的......

Well, I think what we shared is we're filling the third quarter right now. And so obviously, you and everyone else is watching the second half of the year to see what happens. And I think it's a little bit too much of a prognostication to guess what Q4 is going to be, but the math says it should be a good year. Our order intake looks like should be a good year. The truck performance is good. The margin performance is good. So we feel like it all adds up to as far as the story can go, really positive outlook.

嗯，我想我們分享的是我們現在正在填補第三季的空白。顯然，你和其他人都在關注下半年會發生什麼事。我認為猜測第四季度的情況有點過於預測，但數學表明這應該是一個好年。我們的訂單量看起來應該會是個不錯的一年。卡車性能良好。利潤率表現良好。所以我們覺得這一切加起來就故事的發展而言，前景非常樂觀。

Yes. At least the mix is favoring you with the vocational strength given your position in that market.

是的。鑑於您在該市場的地位，至少這種組合對您的職業實力有利。

Yes, David, that's another really good point you brought up. Thanks for bringing that up.

是的，大衛，這是你提出的另一個非常好的觀點。感謝您提出這個問題。

Our next question comes from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

This is Clay on for Jerry. Our question here is what has been the early feedback from customers on how they're thinking about the higher cost profile, the next-generation trucks? And to what extent do they value the embedded extended warranty?

這是傑瑞的克萊。我們的問題是，客戶對更高成本的下一代卡車的早期回饋是什麼？他們在多大程度上重視嵌入式延長保固？

Well, I think they're obviously paying attention to what it's going to be. Nobody knows what those new prices are going to be yet. There's lots of speculation out there. It's a bit early for the speculation, I think, other than to know the emission standards are going to be requiring additional aftertreatment changes to the engines and different capabilities on the, and just to manage the aftertreatment.

嗯，我認為他們顯然正在關注將會發生的事情。沒有人知道這些新價格會是多少。外界有很多猜測。我認為，現在的猜測還為時過早，除了要知道排放標準將要求對引擎進行額外的後處理改變以及不同的功能外，並且只是為了管理後處理。

So with those, there's going to be costs and I think at any time, throughout the years the customers pay attention closely to that. So I think as we already shared, they kind of feel like they'd like to get their orders in a steady way and also kind of avoid any kind of point of disruption around the introduction of the new emission cycle. So that's what's going to pull forward the '25 and '26 purchases, I think.

因此，這些都會產生成本，我認為多年來客戶在任何時候都會密切關注這一點。因此，我認為正如我們已經分享的那樣，他們感覺希望以穩定的方式獲得訂單，並避免在引入新排放週期時出現任何干擾。我認為這就是推動 25 和 26 採購的原因。

And along the same lines as the installed base of those trucks, the '27 emission trucks grows, will your parts market share benefit from the expanded warranty provisions?

與這些卡車的安裝基礎一樣，'27 排放卡車也在成長，您的零件市場份額是否會受益於擴大的保固條款？

Yes, it will. Frankly, simply, yes, it will.

是的，它會。坦白說，簡單地說，是的，會的。

Our next question comes from Jeff Kauffman of Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Kauffman。

Congratulations on a solid quarter. A lot of my questions have been asked. So I want to drill down on truck ASP. You mentioned that new truck pricing is up about 3%. But I'm calculating ASP to be closer to up 8%. So I'm assuming the difference between the 3% and the 8% is mostly mix related. Can you help me bridge that gap and help me understand maybe how much of this could be more vocational in the U.S. versus over the road or versus, say, North American sales versus European sales, which is, David Raso, noted are down substantially. Just trying to understand the difference between the 2 numbers.

恭喜本季業績穩定。我的很多問題都被問到了。所以我想深入研究卡車 ASP。您提到新卡車的價格上漲了約 3%。但我計算平均售價接近 8%。所以我假設 3% 和 8% 之間的差異主要與混合有關。你能否幫助我彌補這一差距，並幫助我了解，與其他地區相比，在美國，或者與北美銷售與歐洲銷售相比，其中有多少可能更加職業化，大衛·拉索指出，北美銷售與歐洲銷售大幅下降。只是想了解這兩個數字之間的差異。

Sure, Jeff. Thanks for the opening comment also. You nailed it. I already think as you typically do is like if you look at the vocational markets, the truck prices are high there. And I would also say that the mix between North America to Europe is a contributing factor.

當然，傑夫。也感謝您的開場評論。你成功了。我已經認為，正如您通常所做的那樣，如果您看看職業市場，那裡的卡車價格很高。我還想說，北美和歐洲之間的混合是一個促成因素。

Okay. So as I think forward for the year, I would probably expect your average reported ASP to be up a little more than your price increases as a result of mix kind of carrying through 2024. Am I thinking about it wrong?

好的。因此，就我對今年的展望而言，我可能預計，由於 2024 年的混合經營，您報告的平均 ASP 漲幅將略高於價格漲幅。

It could be that's a logical assumption base based on all those things. Yes.

這可能是基於所有這些事情的邏輯假設基礎。是的。

Okay. Again, congratulations.

好的。再次恭喜。

Thank you. There are no other questions at this time. So I'll hand back to the management team for any further remarks.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題。因此，我將向管理團隊回饋任何進一步的意見。

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call, and thank you, operator.

我們要感謝大家加入通話，並感謝您，接線生。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們先生們，佩卡的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。