帕卡 (PCAR) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to PACCAR's third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. All lines will be in a listen-only mode until the question and answer session. Today's call is being recorded and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time.

早安，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。在問答環節之前，所有線路都將處於只聽模式。今天的通話正在錄音，如果有人有異議，此時應該掛斷。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我想介紹一下PACCAR投資者關係總監Ken Hastings先生。黑斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning, we would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations and joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Brice Poplawski, Vice President and Controller.

早安，我們歡迎那些透過電話和網路廣播收聽的人。我是 PACCAR 投資者關係總監肯·黑斯廷斯 (Ken Hastings)，今天早上和我一起的還有首席執行官普雷斯頓·費特 (Preston Feight)； Harrie Schippers，總裁兼財務長；以及副總裁兼財務長 Brice Poplawski。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties that may affect expected results. For additional information please see our SEC filings at the investor relations page of paccar.com.

與先前的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有線上媒體成員都參與僅聽模式。今天提供的某些資訊將具有前瞻性，並涉及可能影響預期結果的風險和不確定性。如需了解更多信息，請參閱 paccar.com 投資者關係頁面上的 SEC 備案文件。

I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

現在我想介紹一下普雷斯頓費特。

Thanks, Ken. Good morning everyone. Harrie, Brice, Ken and I will update you on our excellent third quarter financial results and other business highlights. I'd like to start by thanking PACCAR's wonderful employees who deliver PACCAR's high quality trucks and transportation solutions to our customers all around the world.

謝謝，肯。大家早安。Harrie、Brice、Ken 和我將向您介紹我們出色的第三季財務業績和其他業務亮點的最新情況。首先，我要感謝 PACCAR 優秀的員工，他們為我們世界各地的客戶提供了 PACCAR 的高品質卡車和運輸解決方案。

PACCAR earned a strong $972 million on revenues of $8.2 billion for an industry leading after tax return on revenue of 11.8%. PACCAR Parts third quarter revenues increased 5% to $1.66 billion and pretax profits were $407 million. PACCAR financial earned pretax income of $107 million in the third quarter. We estimate this year's US and Canadian Class 8 market to be around 260,000 trucks and next year to be in the range of 250,000 to 280,000 vehicles.

PACCAR 實現了 9.72 億美元的強勁收入，收入達 82 億美元，稅後收入回報率為 11.8%，處於行業領先地位。PACCAR Parts 第三季營收成長 5%，達到 16.6 億美元，稅前利潤為 4.07 億美元。PACCAR金融第三季稅前收入為1.07億美元。我們估計今年美國和加拿大 8 級卡車市場約為 26 萬輛，明年將在 25 萬至 28 萬輛之間。

The vocational segment where Peterbilt and Kenworth are the market leaders is strong and is expected to remain strong with continued infrastructure investments. The less than truckload market is performing well. While the truckload segment seems to have stabilized. Peterbilt and Kenworth combined Class 8 share has increased from 29.5% to 31.1%. Kenworth and Peterbilt's dealer inventory is a healthy 2.9 months.

Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 是市場領導者的職業領域表現強勁，預計隨著基礎設施投資的持續強勁，該領域將保持強勁。零擔市場表現良好。而卡車裝載部分似乎已經穩定。Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 合計 8 類市佔率已從 29.5% 增加到 31.1%。Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 的經銷商庫存維持在 2.9 個月的健康水準。

Kenworth and Peterbilt increased their medium duty market share in the first nine months of this year to 17.2% compared to 14.5% last year. In Europe, this year's truck industry registrations in the above 16 ton segment are estimated to be around 300,000 vehicles. The 2025 market is expected to be in the range of 270,000 to 300,000 trucks. Last month at the IAA truck show in Germany DAF introduced its new 2025 lineup of trucks which improved fuel economy by 3% and used advanced driver assistance systems to enhance safety.

今年前 9 個月，肯沃斯和彼得比爾特的中型車市佔率從去年的 14.5% 增至 17.2%。在歐洲，今年16噸級以上卡車產業的註冊量預計約為30萬輛。預計 2025 年卡車市場規模將在 27 萬至 30 萬輛之間。上個月在德國舉行的 IAA 卡車展上，DAF 推出了全新的 2025 年卡車系列，該系列將燃油經濟性提高了 3%，並使用先進的駕駛員輔助系統來增強安全性。

In addition, the 2025 vehicles feature PACCAR's connected truck solutions which bring great value to the customer. The South American above 16 ton market is projected to be in a range of 110,000 to 120,000 trucks this year and in a similar range next year. PACCAR's premium lineup of trucks are performing well for customers in South America, especially in the important Brazilian market. PACCAR and its dealers are delivering excellent trucks and transportation solutions to our customers and we are excited about the future.

此外，2025年車輛還配備了PACCAR的連網卡車解決方案，為客戶帶來了巨大的價值。南美 16 噸以上市場預計今年的卡車數量將在 11 萬至 12 萬輛之間，明年也將保持在類似的範圍內。佩卡的優質卡車系列在南美洲的客戶中表現良好，尤其是在重要的巴西市場。佩卡及其經銷商正在為我們的客戶提供卓越的卡車和運輸解決方案，我們對未來感到興奮。

Thank you, Harrie will now provide an update on Paccar Parts, Paccar Financial Services and other business highlights. Harrie?

謝謝，Harrie 現在將提供有關 Paccar Parts、Paccar Financial Services 和其他業務亮點的最新資訊。哈里？

Thanks, Preston. I delivered 44,900 trucks during the third quarter. We expect fourth quarter deliveries to be around 42,000 vehicles. More production days in Europe will be offset by fewer production days due to normal holidays in North America and some supplier related limitations. PACCAR Parts delivered third quarter gross margins of 30.1%.

謝謝，普雷斯頓。第三季我交付了 44,900 輛卡車。我們預計第四季的交付量約為 42,000 輛。由於北美的正常假期和一些供應商相關的限制，歐洲更多的生產天數將被更少的生產天數所抵消。PACCAR Parts 第三季毛利率為 30.1%。

PACCAR's quarterly sales grew by 5% compared to the same period last year and are expected to grow around 4% in the fourth quarter. PACCAR Parts focus on expanding its customer base and providing a full range of transportation solutions is delivering sales growth in the smaller after sales market. PACCAR Parts just opened a new distribution center in Massbach, Germany.

PACCAR季度銷售額較去年同期成長5%，預計第四季成長4%左右。PACCAR Parts 專注於擴大客戶群並提供全方位的運輸解決方案，從而在較小的售後市場實現銷售成長。PACCAR Parts 剛在德國馬斯巴赫開設了一個新的配送中心。

This new distribution center increases the number of dealers and customers benefiting from receiving parts on the same or next day in the important German market. Truck parts and other gross margins were 16.6% in the third quarter. We anticipate fourth quarter gross margins to be in the range of 15.5% to 16%. PACCAR financial services results in the third quarter benefited from excellent portfolio quality. Pretax income was $107 million.

這個新的配送中心增加了經銷商和客戶的數量，他們可以在重要的德國市場當天或第二天收到零件，從而受益。第三季卡車零件和其他毛利率為16.6%。我們預計第四季毛利率將在 15.5% 至 16% 之間。PACCAR金融服務第三季的業績得益於出色的投資組合品質。稅前收入為 1.07 億美元。

The used truck market has normalized North America while remaining soft in Europe. PACCAR Financial is a market leader in supporting customers with innovative technologies that provide seamless credit application and loan servicing processes. PACCAR net income of $3.3 billion in the first nine months of this year generated a strong $3.2 billion operating cash flow.

北美二手卡車市場已經正常化，而歐洲市場仍然疲軟。PACCAR Financial 是透過提供無縫信貸申請和貸款服務流程的創新技術為客戶提供支援的市場領導者。PACCAR 今年前 9 個月的淨利潤為 33 億美元，產生了 32 億美元的強勁營運現金流。

PACCAR's return on invested capital was an excellent 25% in the first nine months of this year. This year's capital expenditures are projected to be between $760 million and $800 million. And research and development expenses will be $450 million to $470 million. Next year we estimate the company will invest $700 million to $800 million in capital projects at $480 million to $530 million in research and development projects.

今年前 9 個月，PACCAR 的投資資本報酬率高達 25%。今年的資本支出預計在 7.6 億美元至 8 億美元之間。研發費用將為4.5億至4.7億美元。明年，我們預計該公司將投資 7 億至 8 億美元用於資本項目，4.8 億至 5.3 億美元用於研發項目。

PACCAR continues to expand manufacturing capacity at our factories in Europe, United States, Mexico, Brazil and Australia. These investments are supporting PACCAR's growth as well as our customers success. PACCAR investments in its premium truck lineup, efficient manufacturing capacity, best in class parts and financial services businesses, and the continued development of advanced technologies position the company for industry leading performance through all phases of the business cycle.

佩卡繼續擴大我們在歐洲、美國、墨西哥、巴西和澳洲工廠的製造能力。這些投資支持佩卡的發展以及我們客戶的成功。佩卡對其優質卡車系列、高效製造能力、一流零件和金融服務業務的投資，以及先進技術的持續開發，使該公司在整個商業週期的各個階段都保持行業領先的業績。

Thank you would be pleased to answer your questions.

謝謝，很高興回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Steve Volkmann, Jefferies.

史蒂夫沃克曼，傑弗里斯。

Thank you so much. Good morning and good afternoon. I'm curious if we can talk a little bit about what you're seeing on the pricing side. I know we need to normally wait for the queue to get a sense of that. But if you can give us a quick preview of what we're seeing in pricing and kind of how you're expecting that to flow through in the fourth quarter as well.

太感謝了。早安，下午好。我很好奇我們是否可以談談您在定價方面所看到的情況。我知道我們通常需要等待隊列才能了解這一點。但您能否讓我們快速預覽我們在定價方面看到的情況以及您對第四季度定價的預期。

Sure, if you think about price, cost, it's kind of price was flat in Q3 and costs around 3%. So when I think about that on the truck side, if you think about how we look forward at that, we think that the vocational market's going to remain strong. We think the lesson, truckload market is doing really well is in addition, and then the truckload sector still seems to be feeling its pressure, but it does seem to have stabilized. And so we're kind of starting to see signs that maybe that tension will release over the coming months and next year, which could be good for us in terms of price versus cost as we look into next year.

當然，如果你考慮價格和成本，第三季的價格持平，成本約為 3%。因此，當我考慮卡車方面時，如果你考慮我們對此的展望，我們認為職業市場將保持強勁。我們認為，教訓是，整車市場表現確實很好，然後整車產業似乎仍然感受到壓力，但似乎已經穩定下來。因此，我們開始看到跡象表明，這種緊張局勢可能會在未來幾個月和明年得到緩解，這對我們明年的價格與成本是有利的。

Okay, good. Maybe that starts to answer my follow up, which is that I I'm curious, you know, overall you're sort of flattish globally with your market forecast for next year. Maybe you'll gain a little bit of market share like you usually do. But that fourth quarter run rate of 15.5% to 16% gross margin. Is that a good sort of base to think about for 2025 or is there something that could move that one way or the other? Thanks.

好的，很好。也許這開始回答我的後續問題，我很好奇，你知道，總體而言，你對明年的市場預測在全球範圍內持平。也許您會像平常一樣獲得一點市場份額。但第四季毛利率運作率為15.5%至16%。這是為 2025 年考慮的一個很好的基礎嗎？謝謝。

I think if you go and look at what's been going on this year, right. The year started exceptionally strong in all sectors. And I think maybe the truckload cares have had a tougher road to hoe for a little while here. Maybe what you'd expect to see in 2025 is a mere image of that where the year starts a little bit like it's finishing and then accelerates, I think from their timing. Exactly, I don't know that, but it does feel like that's, we're starting to see the stabilization for the truckload sector just significant. And so we would expect to see some growth over the coming year.

我想如果你去看看今年發生了什麼，對吧。今年伊始，所有產業都異常強勁。我想，也許一卡車的關心者在這裡的鋤地之路一段時間比較艱難。也許你期望在 2025 年看到的只是這樣的景象：從他們的時間安排來看，這一年的開始有點像結束，然後加速。確切地說，我不知道這一點，但確實感覺是，我們開始看到卡車運輸業的穩定非常重要。因此，我們預計來年會出現一些增長。

Super. Thank you. I'll pass it on.

極好的。謝謝。我會把它傳遞下去。

Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

羅布‧韋特海默，Melius 研究中心。

Hi, thanks. And good morning guys. So I guess just to follow up on that question, you look at gross margins still at very healthy levels really historically, but down sequentially, price was kind of flat. You said year over year and cost creep up a little bit. Is there anything that really should otherwise be called out in the sequential move in gross margin? Thank you.

你好，謝謝。早安，夥計們。所以我想，為了跟進這個問題，你會看到歷史上毛利率仍然處於非常健康的水平，但連續下降，價格持平。你說年復一年，成本略有上升。在毛利率的連續變動中，是否真的應該指出什麼？謝謝。

I don't think there's anything different than I would call out for that. I think the thing that that's been really good for us is the PACCAR introductions we've done over the past few years have. I mean, it's just stunning how great the trucks are right now. The fuel economy is outstanding, the reliability is outstanding and the customer desire for the trucks is very high as well. So I think that what we'll see is people's desire to have those trucks as the market opens up.

我認為這與我所呼籲的沒有什麼不同。我認為對我們來說真正有好處的是我們過去幾年所做的 PACCAR 介紹。我的意思是，現在的卡車有多棒，真是令人驚嘆。燃油經濟性出色，可靠性出色，客戶對卡車的需求也非常高。因此，我認為隨著市場的開放，我們將看到人們渴望擁有這些卡車。

All right, perfect. And then I, I've asked you this before. I'm not sure you'll give me a different answer now, but your differentiation is pretty good and vocational. I mean, it's a product that has a lot more, has variability to it, let's say, and you guys are real leaders there, is that at all a margin tailing for you into next year.

好吧，完美。然後我，我以前問過你這個問題。我不確定你現在會給我不同的答案，但你的差異化非常好而且很專業。我的意思是，這是一個有更多功能、可變性的產品，可以說，你們是那裡真正的領導者，這對你們來說是一個持續到明年的利潤率。

Yeah, it's a very good point, Rob. And yes, it is. I would say that's a positive statement to make. I think one of the things that we look at right now is our inventory is in very good shape, as we mentioned. And over half of our inventory is vocational trucks that are at bodybuilders right now. So we feel well positioned overall with inventory and then we know that our vocational inventory is strong and we feel like that is good for our business.

是的，這是一個很好的觀點，羅布。是的，確實如此。我想說這是一個正面的聲明。我認為我們現在關注的一件事是，正如我們所提到的，我們的庫存狀況非常好。我們一半以上的庫存是目前在車身製造商使用的職業卡車。因此，我們感覺庫存整體定位良好，然後我們知道我們的職業庫存很強大，我們覺得這對我們的業務有利。

And then vocational can be up next year and I'll stop there. I apologize. Thank you.

然後明年職業教育就會增加，我就到此為止。我道歉。謝謝。

I think vocational will continue to run strong next year.

我認為職業明年將繼續強勁。

Steven Fisher, UBS.

史蒂文費雪，瑞銀。

Thanks. Good morning. You mentioned that your inventory is what you characterize as healthy at 2.9 months I guess, can you talk about where that 2.9 months is relative to your ideal targets for this point in the cycle? Do you think there's sort of inventory reductions that you have to make? And just curious, kind of what you're seeing from competitors in that perspective. And are they needing to take inventory out and is that putting some price pressure into the market?

謝謝。早安.您提到您的庫存在 2.9 個月時是健康的，您能談談這 2.9 個月相對於週期中這一點的理想目標嗎？您認為必須減少庫存嗎？只是好奇，你從競爭對手的角度看到了什麼。他們是否需要去庫存，這是否會對市場造成一些價格壓力？

Well, I'll let them talk about their inventory positions, but for our inventory position, we feel very good at 2.9 months. That's a very healthy level for us, especially as I mentioned, to Rob the fact that our vocational inventory takes up a chunk of that. So we feel quite comfortable with our inventory levels and our build rates being well positioned.

好吧，我會讓他們談談他們的庫存頭寸，但對於我們的庫存頭寸來說，我們感覺 2.9 個月非常好。這對我們來說是一個非常健康的水平，特別是正如我所提到的，羅布的事實是我們的職業庫存佔據了其中很大一部分。因此，我們對庫存水準和建造速度處於有利位置感到非常滿意。

And it's even come down a little bit during the quarter. But at the end of June, we were at 3.3 months and currently we're at 2.9 months.

本季甚至略有下降。但截至 6 月底，我們的週期為 3.3 個月，目前為 2.9 個月。

Okay. And then just you mentioned about some potential re-acceleration in the second half of the year. How are you thinking about the concept of a pre-buy at this point? Is that kind of at all in the thinking or is it more just sort of the freight market recovering? And if it's a pre-buy in your thinking, what do you think it will take to kick start? That is it just timing and getting closer to another 26, 27 time frame or does it actually also require some degree of improvement in the freight market?

好的。然後你剛才提到了下半年可能出現的一些重新加速。現在您如何看待預購的概念？是這樣的想法還是只是貨運市場的復甦？如果這是您預先購買的想法，您認為需要什麼才能啟動？這只是時間安排，越來越接近另一個 26、27 的時間框架，還是實際上還需要貨運市場進行某種程度的改善？

I think we're going to see some improvement in the freight market. Some of the carriers have started to leave the market, which is something that's been anticipated. I would say, I also think that as you think about it, there will be people's trucks have gotten older and there will be people interested in making sure they're buying enough trucks for the next several years. So that's going to take an effect. I think as we go through 2025 and add to 2025 growth.

我認為貨運市場將會有所改善。一些營運商已經開始退出市場，這是預料之中的事情。我想說，我也認為，正如你所想，會有人的卡車變得更舊，會有人有興趣確保他們在未來幾年購買足夠的卡車。這樣就會產生效果。我認為，隨著 2025 年的到來，我們將繼續實現 2025 年的成長。

Tami Zakaria, J.P. Morgan.

塔米·扎卡里亞，摩根大通。

Hi. Thank you so much. So my first question is on Europe. So your outlook for next year, I think it's down 5% at the midpoint for retail sales. And this year your deliveries are down more than the retail sales expectation. So as we think about next year, do you plan on delivering to demand or do you expect to underproduce even next year? So how should we think about production in Europe next year?

你好。太感謝了。我的第一個問題是關於歐洲的。所以你對明年的展望，我認為零售額中位數會下降 5%。今年你們的交貨量下降幅度超過了零售額預期。因此，當我們考慮明年時，您是否計劃滿足需求，還是預計明年產量不足？那我們該如何考慮明年歐洲的生產呢？

Yeah, Tami. European volumes have been down a little bit more than the market this year, that is really strong in central and eastern Europe where the market has been more affected by the war in Ukraine and the economy is a lot slower there than in some other parts of Europe. We expect things to continue at that pace, more or less into as we enter next year and then, and then we will see how it progresses during the year.

是的，塔米。今年歐洲銷量的下降幅度比市場大一些，中歐和東歐的銷量確實強勁，那裡的市場受烏克蘭戰爭的影響更大，而且那裡的經濟比其他一些地區慢得多。我們預計事情會以這樣的速度繼續下去，或多或少會持續到明年，然後我們將看到這一年的進展。

Exactly what Harry said. And I think the other thing is the team in Europe has done a great job on price discipline with the great new trucks. And so I think those two things combined is we feel pretty well positioned in Europe too that we will build to demand next year.

正是哈利所說的。我認為另一件事是歐洲團隊在新卡車的價格紀律方面做得很好。因此，我認為這兩件事結合，我們在歐洲也感覺處於有利地位，明年我們將根據需求進行建造。

Got it. That is very helpful. And my second question going back to pricing, I think you said flattish this quarter. Just trying to get a sense of, did you open order books for next year? If so what any reads on what pricing you're seeing for next year?

知道了。這非常有幫助。我的第二個問題回到定價，我認為你說本季持平。只是想了解一下，您是否打開了明年的訂單？如果是的話，您對明年的定價有何了解？

Sure, Tami. I mean, obviously it's not so binary as opening and closing the order books, but we did have a significant engagement with a bunch of customers at the recent ATA show. So if you wanted to call that the normal cadence of fleet fleets thinking about their purchases, we had great conversations with them. A lot of enthusiasm for the trucks and kind of an expectation of purchases next year. I think they're obviously because of the condition they're all in. It puts some price, cost tension into the world right now. But I also feel like that's going to relieve, find some relief as we go in 2025.

當然，塔米。我的意思是，顯然這並不像打開和關閉訂單簿那麼二元，但我們確實在最近的 ATA 展會上與一群客戶進行了重要的接觸。因此，如果你想稱之為艦隊考慮採購的正常節奏，我們與他們進行了很好的對話。人們對卡車充滿熱情，並期待明年購買。我認為他們顯然是因為他們所處的狀況。它為現在的世界帶來了一些價格和成本的緊張。但我也覺得這會讓人鬆一口氣，在我們進入 2025 年時找到一些解脫。

Got it. Thank.

知道了。感謝。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略，摩根士丹利。

Hi, good morning and thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to go back to the margin conversation in particular, just understanding the price, cost dynamic. So you came in ahead of your expectations on total units for the third quarter and price seems to be it may be relatively stable. All things considered, but the 16.6% margin implies decremental on a pre-tax basis of over 50%.

你好，早安，感謝您提出我的問題。只是想特別回到利潤率對話，只是了解價格、成本動態。因此，您對第三季總單位的預期超出了預期，而且價格似乎可能相對穩定。考慮到所有因素，但 16.6% 的利潤率意味著稅前利潤率下降了 50% 以上。

Just kind of above the levels that I think of it as kind of normal. So was there anything that surprised to the upside or that's leading to kind of higher detrimental than you would have typically expected? And then similar kind of line of question for 4Q in terms of help us kind of bridge the GAAP like it's not a price degradation. What's kind of causing the margin contraction?

略高於我認為正常的水平。那麼，是否有任何令人驚訝的上行趨勢或導致比您通常預期的更高的損害？然後，第四季度的類似問題可以幫助我們彌合公認會計原則，就像這不是價格下降一樣。是什麼導致利潤率收縮？

You want to take a swing?

你想盪鞦韆嗎？

Think mostly any difference with what we thought a quarter ago would be at the cost side where we had some cost elements, there were some supplier issues at that point in time. And some other operating cost or maybe the cost side was the difference if you want to point to something

與我們一個季度前的想法相比，主要是在成本方面，我們有一些成本因素，當時存在一些供應商問題。如果你想指出某些事情，那麼其他一些營運成本或成本方面可能是差異

Also lower volumes.

成交量也較低。

But I think you know what we're looking at that, we're looking at the totality of this thing and it feels like these are pretty healthy levels for us given this point in the cycle and where we see ourselves sitting, so it feels pretty good.

但我想你知道我們在看什麼，我們正在看這件事的整體，考慮到週期中的這一點以及我們看到自己所處的位置，感覺這些對我們來說是相當健康的水平，所以感覺不錯。

Got it. And then maybe a similar dynamic of just a conversation around the parts profitability, just what do you see there in terms of that business that you think about? As we go into 2025 just in terms of the profitability, it seems like it's stepped up nicely in the kind of remain relatively stable, I guess from 2Q to 3Q, but that was an area that was seeing a little bit of softness, but we were talking about it last quarter. So just what's kind of the ongoing trends there.

知道了。然後，也許會出現類似的動態，只是圍繞零件盈利能力進行對話，您對您所考慮的業務有何看法？當我們進入2025 年時，就盈利能力而言，我想從第二季度到第三季度，它似乎在保持相對穩定的情況下得到了很好的提高，但這是一個有點疲軟的領域，但我們上個季度我們討論過這個問題。那麼那裡的持續趨勢是什麼？

I think the macro thing to think about in the parts market right now is that there's a smaller overall after sales market this year. And our team's just done a tremendous job of holding excellent margins in that smaller market and seeing growth in fact, right, as we talked about 5% growth this quarter. So I'm couldn't be more happy with the work they're doing the systems, they're bringing in the new PPCs they're opening and how closely they're working with all the customers to grow that business. So, a great story there for the PACCAR's team.

我認為目前在零件市場上需要考慮的宏觀問題是，今年整體售後服務市場規模較小。我們的團隊剛剛完成了巨大的工作，在這個較小的市場中保持了優異的利潤率，並且實際上看到了成長，正如我們談到的本季成長 5% 一樣。因此，我對他們在系統方面所做的工作、他們引入新開設的 PPC，以及他們與所有客戶合作發展業務的密切程度感到非常滿意。對於 PACCAR 團隊來說，這是一個很棒的故事。

Jaime Cook, Truist Securities.

海梅·庫克 (Jaime Cook)，Truist 證券公司。

Hi, good morning. Sorry, just to follow up on the Parts aftermarket. Can you comment specifically what price, cost was like you did for truck? That would be helpful and then I guess my other question would be, as you think about truck, you said price flat cost up 3%. Was there any major variances sort of by region? And there's been this thesis that everyone would act more rational to cycle as some of your peers are now, spun off public companies. Just any comment on what, how you're seeing behavior sort of this cycle versus previous cycles? Thank you.

嗨，早安。抱歉，只是為了跟進零件售後市場。您能具體評論一下您對卡車的價格和成本嗎？這會很有幫助，然後我想我的另一個問題是，當你想到卡車時，你說價格固定成本上漲了 3%。不同地區之間是否有重大差異？有這樣一種觀點認為，每個人都會更理性地騎車，就像你的一些同行現在剝離上市公司一樣。您對本週期與先前週期的行為有何評論？謝謝。

So starting with Parts, Jamie for Parts price was up 3% and cost was up 4% in the quarter. You have a question about --

因此，從零件開始，Jamie 的零件價格在本季上漲了 3%，成本上漲了 4%。您有一個關於--

I think if you think about the disciplines of the, all the other ways being public, listen, it's a competitive world, but PACCAR's has this advantage of having premium products that people really do desire. And so the team has close relationships with the customers and feel like it puts us in a good position. As we noted in the beginning of our commentary, we have best in class performance because of the performance of our product for our customers. And we expect that will continue.

我認為，如果你考慮所有其他公開方式的紀律，聽著，這是一個競爭激烈的世界，但 PACCAR 的優勢在於擁有人們真正渴望的優質產品。因此，團隊與客戶有著密切的關係，並且感覺到這使我們處於有利的地位。正如我們在評論開頭指出的那樣，由於我們的產品為客戶提供了出色的性能，因此我們擁有一流的性能。我們預計這種情況將會持續下去。

I guess just a follow up question, Preston I understanding your outlook for 2025 and it sounds like things should get better in the back half of the year. As we progress through the cycle and we get a pre-buy ahead of 2027. Is there any reason believe PACCAR cannot deliver above average incremental margins like you did prior to this most recent sort of mini downturn given just the new product introductions, et cetera.

我想這只是一個後續問題，普雷斯頓，我了解您對 2025 年的展望，聽起來情況應該會在今年下半年有所好轉。隨著週期的進展，我們會在 2027 年之前獲得預購。是否有任何理由相信 PACCAR 無法像您在最近的這種小型衰退之前那樣提供高於平均水平的增量利潤，僅考慮到新產品的推出等。

Yeah. No, Jaime that's a great question. A great way to frame it. I like the way you frame it, I think we can deliver excellent performance in the coming years. So I agree with you.

是的。不，海梅，這是一個很好的問題。一個很好的框架方式。我喜歡你的框架方式，我認為我們可以在未來幾年提供出色的表現。所以我同意你的觀點。

David Raso, Evercore ISI.

大衛·拉索，Evercore ISI。

Yes, thank you for the time. I have one short term, one, maybe a little bit longer term. On the bills of the sorry, the deliveries for the fourth quarter the 42,000, the geographic composition of that. I mean, obviously, historically, Europe will step up. Are we saying even with the extra days in Europe, we won't get a step up in Europe. So that's sort of flattish and maybe other is flattish and sequential US, Canada is the down 11 to get us the 42. I'm just trying to be thoughtful about the geographic mix when I think about the margins.

是的，謝謝您的時間。我有一個短期的，一個，也許更長一點的。抱歉，第四季的交付量為 42,000 輛，其地理組成如下。我的意思是，顯然，從歷史上看，歐洲將會挺身而出。我們是不是說，即使在歐洲有額外的時間，我們也不會在歐洲取得進步。所以這有點平淡，也許其他國家也平淡無奇，美國、加拿大排在第 11 位，而我們排在第 42 位。當我考慮利潤時，我只是想考慮地理組合。

Yeah, I think you're not off on that. I think that it's relatively flattish 3Q to 4Q for Europe. And, again, we've got our inventory in a very good position there and then I would expect that we're maybe it's up slightly even. And then we're going to see in the, what we're going to see for the US is a normal holiday cadence. And obviously, there was a couple of hurricanes that came through, it did affect some suppliers. And so we're working through that right now with them and the supply base is doing a great job of sorting that out and it's just something we going to kind of sort out as a team.

是的，我想你對此並不滿意。我認為歐洲第三季到第四季相對平穩。而且，我們的庫存再次處於非常好的位置，然後我預計我們的庫存可能會略有上升。然後我們將看到美國的正常假期節奏。顯然，發生了幾場颶風，確實影響了一些供應商。因此，我們現在正在與他們一起解決這個問題，供應基地在解決這個問題方面做得很好，這只是我們作為一個團隊要解決的問題。

On a per day basis. Europe is flattish going into the fourth quarter. But the more production days, I think it provides a couple of 1,000 more trucks in Europe compared to the third quarter in the fourth quarter.

按天計算。歐洲進入第四季表現平淡。但隨著生產天數的增加，我認為與第三季相比，第四季在歐洲多提供了 1,000 輛卡車。

Well, that's the whole thing. If it's a couple of 1,000 more to keep the whole company down to 42, I'm just trying to figure out is North America -- US down 20 sequentially. I'm just trying to get a sense of the magnitude because that could explain the marginal pressure.

嗯，這就是全部事情。如果再增加 1,000 人才能將整個公司的數量減少到 42 人，我只是想弄清楚北美地區——美國比上一季減少了 20 人。我只是想了解其大小，因為這可以解釋邊際壓力。

No, 20. But there's, there's what is it, seven or eight fewer working days in the fourth quarter to North America.

不，20。但是，就是這樣，第四季飛往北美的工作日減少了七到八個。

Okay. That's helpful. And then on the issue of the pre-buy, I'm sorry, go ahead, Preston.

好的。這很有幫助。然後關於預購的問題，很抱歉，請繼續，普雷斯頓。

No, go ahead.

不，繼續吧。

Well, I was just moving on to the, the second question I had about the pre-buy. A major engine supplier we hear could be pulling their engine for '27 earlier, which could actually inspire maybe some buying of their engine in '25. So I just wanted to see if you'd enlighten us on that at all. If that is maybe what's playing out, which could help '25.

好吧，我只是繼續討論關於預購的第二個問題。我們聽說一家主要的發動機供應商可能會提前停止 27 年的發動機，這實際上可能會激發一些人在 25 年購買他們的發動機。所以我只是想看看你是否能在這方面給我們啟發。如果這就是正在發生的事情，這可能會對 25 歲有所幫助。

And then second on the inventory for the vocational, you mentioned the bodybuilder who continue to be a bottleneck. So the inventory sitting out there in vocational does lead or you have a customer, they're just the bottleneck of the bodybuilder to finish off the job. Is there something going on with the body builders? I can sort of break that through a little bit. And if not, is the level of vocational trucks sitting there waiting for a bodybuilder, an impediment to you being able to grow your vocational business more than '25.

然後在職業清單上，你提到了健美運動員，他們仍然是一個瓶頸。因此，職業中的庫存確實領先，或者您有客戶，他們只是健美運動員完成工作的瓶頸。健美運動員們是不是出了什麼事？我可以稍微打破這個局面。如果不是，那麼等待健美運動員的職業卡車的水平是否會阻礙您將職業業務發展到 25 年以上。

Yeah, I think that what you've seen is there was this impulse throughout 2024 in the vocational market and I think that's maybe stabilized at a high level. So I think people are doing a job, a good job of catching up and what the bodybuilder capacity is has been and is so they're getting that sorted out is what it feels like, David. Obviously, there's some components on vocational trucks that are unique and some of those are in tight supply right now, which sent some throttle on it.

是的，我認為你所看到的是，整個 2024 年職業市場都有這種衝動，而且我認為這可能會穩定在較高水平。所以我認為人們正在做一項工作，很好地迎頭趕上，健美運動員的能力過去和現在都是如此，所以他們正在解決這就是感覺，大衛。顯然，職業卡車上有一些獨特的部件，其中一些部件目前供應緊張，這給它帶來了一些限制。

All of that together means that I think 2025 will continue strong in the vocational sector. There's still infrastructure spending, the country is doing well. And so I would expect vocational to remain a strong point for us. And as you well know, right, we have over 40% market share in that sector. So that will be good for PACCAR in '25.

所有這些加在一起意味著我認為 2025 年職業領域將繼續強勁。基礎設施支出仍然存在，該國表現良好。因此，我預計職業仍將是我們的優勢。如您所知，我們在該領域擁有超過 40% 的市場份額。所以這對 25 年的 PACCAR 來說是件好事。

And coming back around to your first question. We have a great relationship with Cummins, we build our own engines. We are well positioned for today's emission standards as well as the upcoming emission standards and feel like we'll be able to offer our customers the right products for the upcoming markets and don't have any concerns about how that's going to play out.

回到你的第一個問題。我們與康明斯有著良好的關係，我們製造自己的引擎。我們已經為當今的排放標準以及即將到來的排放標準做好了充分的準備，並且感覺我們將能夠為客戶提供適合即將到來的市場的正確產品，並且不用擔心這將如何發揮作用。

Okay. I'll leave it there. Thank you so much.

好的。我會把它留在那裡。太感謝了。

Great.

偉大的。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

傑瑞·雷維奇，高盛。

Hi, good morning, good afternoon, everyone. I'm wondering if you could just talk about on. I'm wondering if you could just talk about on the cost side your teams have been sprinting really hard to get trucks out the door when supply was tight. And I'm wondering based on the cost of materials that are now flowing through the factories, when do you think we could see per truck costs actually coming down? And you know, if the current steel price, cost curve holds in particular, do you think we could be looking at per truck cost potentially tailwind at some point in an early '25 on a year over year basis?

大家好，早安，下午好。我想知道你是否可以繼續談談。我想知道您是否可以談論成本方面，在供應緊張的情況下，您的團隊一直在努力將卡車運出去。我想知道，根據現在流經工廠的材料成本，您認為我們什麼時候可以看到每輛卡車的成本真正下降？你知道，如果目前的鋼材價格、成本曲線保持不變，你認為我們是否會在 25 年初的某個時間點考慮每輛卡車的成本同比可能出現的順風車？

Jerry, that it's a possibility. I think there's a little bit of labor that, that factors into here too, that you look at on a year over year basis, which is something that's been incurred by the industry as a whole, including our supply base, much written about. So I think we'll just have to watch how those two things interplay with each other in the coming six months.

傑瑞，這是有可能的。我認為，這裡也有一點勞動力因素，你可以逐年觀察，這是整個產業（包括我們的供應基地）所產生的，對此有很多論述。所以我認為我們只需要觀察這兩件事在未來六個月內如何相互作用。

So and then in terms of the mix of what you folks have in backlog. Can you talk about that? You mentioned earlier in the conversation, the margin step down has been driven large by a mix of product. How does the mix of what you folks have left and backlog look compared to what we shipped this quarter?

然後就你們積壓的工作的組合而言。你能談談嗎？您之前在談話中提到，產品組合導致利潤率大幅下降。與我們本季出貨的產品相比，你們的剩餘產品和積壓訂單的組合如何？

Yeah, we still see the same ratios of really strong truck versus tractor production, truck production is still running around 50%. So that's above a historical number but very good numbers for us.

是的，我們仍然看到真正強勁的卡車與拖拉機產量的比率相同，卡車產量仍然在 50% 左右。所以這高於歷史數字，但對我們來說非常好。

And you folks have improved your truck profitability significantly cycle over cycle. In the past, we've seen margins of peak to truck grow margins range from 400 to 1,000 basis points peak to trough. How do you think the higher margin profile that you folks have now will translate into truck cyclicality going forward? What's the impact on fixed versus variable cost versus history? Any comments that you care to make on that question?

你們已經顯著提高了卡車的獲利能力。過去，我們看到高峰與卡車成長的利潤率從高峰到低谷的範圍為 400 到 1,000 個基點。您認為現在較高的利潤率將如何轉化為未來卡車的周期性？固定成本與變動成本與歷史有何影響？您對這個問題有什麼評論嗎？

Sure, Jerry, I think it's a great observation on your part. I think that what we see is the company performing at a structurally stronger level. I think that's because of the great investments and the efforts of the team to provide excellent products for our customers. I mean, they really are helping our customers make money and they are desired by the drivers.

當然，傑瑞，我認為你的觀察非常好。我認為我們看到的是公司在結構上表現更強勁。我認為這是因為團隊的巨大投資和努力為我們的客戶提供優質的產品。我的意思是，他們確實在幫助我們的客戶賺錢，而且司機也需要他們。

So that's a nice position to be in. I think PACCAR's lean culture and operating disciplines are healthy and good for the company and good for our operating performance, good for our customers in terms of us being a lien operating company and good for our shareholders. So you're right in making the observation and we think that observation will hold true.

所以這是一個很好的位置。我認為佩卡的精實文化和營運紀律是健康的，對公司有利，對我們的經營績效有利，對我們作為留置權經營公司的客戶有利，對我們的股東有利。所以你的觀察是正確的，我們認為這個觀察是正確的。

Okay. So and lastly some of your competitors are talking about, some pretty small incremental cost increases on EPA 2027 versus what most of us expect. I'm wondering if you just weigh in on your expectations, especially since you're already up and running in California. Can you talk about what you folks are seeing and expecting?

好的。最後，您的一些競爭對手正在談論，與我們大多數人的預期相比，EPA 2027 的成本增量略有增加。我想知道您是否只是權衡您的期望，特別是因為您已經在加利福尼亞州啟動並運行。您能談談您所看到的和期待的嗎？

Yeah. Sure. First of all, I see you even observe the fact that we have a certified engine in California as we're the first manufacturer to do that. So we're well positioned for any of the regulatory conditions that we encounter. Our thoughts is it could be in the 10,000 to 15,000 range right now. Subject to change depends on what the regulatory agencies do, but that feels like the right framing point for the cost as we look at 2027.

是的。當然。首先，我看到您甚至注意到我們在加利福尼亞州擁有經過認證的發動機，因為我們是第一家這樣做的製造商。因此，我們已經做好了應對所遇到的任何監管條件的準備。我們的想法是目前可能在 10,000 到 15,000 之間。是否會發生變化取決於監管機構的行為，但在我們展望 2027 年時，這感覺像是正確的成本框架點。

And Jerry bear in mind, it's not only about material cost, it's also the extended warranties that will kick in with EPA '27 that will have an effect, an impact on the cost level as well.

Jerry 請記住，這不僅與材料成本有關，而且隨著 EPA '27 的延長保固期也會產生影響，對成本水準也會產生影響。

Absolutely. Yeah. Thank you, everyone.

絕對地。是的。謝謝大家。

Great questions.

很好的問題。

Tim Thein, Raymond James.

提姆泰恩，雷蒙詹姆斯。

Great. Thank you. First one Preston for you. Maybe I'm just curious in terms of the conversations that you and the team are having with your truckload customers as you think about kind of the order progression as we go in coming months. It seems and I don't know if you would agree with this and obviously, you've lived through lots of, of these of truck cycles over time.

偉大的。謝謝。第一個給你的普雷斯頓。也許我只是對您和團隊與您的整車客戶進行的對話感到好奇，因為您正在思考我們未來幾個月的訂單進度。看來，我不知道你是否同意這一點，顯然，隨著時間的推移，你已經經歷過很多這樣的卡車循環。

But just with respect to kind of this election, uncertainty and the range of political and kind of regulatory outcomes that may come about. I'm just curious, do you think there's more, I mean, there's always this notion of, there's a kind of a wait and see around the election, but it does seem like from our standpoint anyway, maybe this year is a little bit greater.

但就這次選舉的類型而言，不確定性以及可能出現的政治和監管結果的範圍。我只是很好奇，你認為還有更多嗎，我的意思是，總是有這樣的想法，圍繞選舉有一種觀望的感覺，但無論如何，從我們的角度來看，也許今年有一點更大。

So I'm curious if you share that thought and if so would, would you think it's fair that maybe there's a potential for more of a delayed order cadence as we look into '25.

因此，我很好奇您是否也有同樣的想法，如果您願意，您是否認為在我們研究 25 年時，訂單節奏可能會出現更多延遲是否公平？

I think that we have some really smart customers and our observations in those conversations is they think very clearly about their economic conditions that they're operating in. And I think they know that there needs to be a steadiness to their buying cycle of trucks because it's good for their operating models. And so they've been probably reluctant on the truckload side to be able to make the capital truck purchases they wanted for the last little while just based upon rates.

我認為我們有一些非常聰明的客戶，我們在這些對話中觀察到他們非常清楚他們所處的經濟狀況。我認為他們知道卡車的購買週期需要保持穩定，因為這有利於他們的營運模式。因此，在卡車裝載方面，他們可能不願意僅根據費率來購買他們想要的資本卡車。

And I think they're kind of hopeful that's going to change. And I think far more important than anything like an election is when those rates change, then they will probably increase the cadence of their bias. And I think that's what they're thinking about.

我認為他們對這種情況有所改變抱持希望。我認為比選舉之類的事情更重要的是，當這些利率改變時，他們可能會增加偏見的節奏。我認為這就是他們正在考慮的事情。

And then, and then this is with respect to the deliveries in North America, it seems from some of the third party data that maybe the third quarter, he had, a little bit heavier on, or heavier on medium duty relative to heavy duty. Is there any normalization that may occur in fourth quarter? Or is that, is it not enough to call out in terms of from a mixed perspective, as you think 3Q to 4Q.

然後，這是關於北美的交付量，從一些第三方數據來看，他可能在第三季的重量有所增加，或者相對於重型而言，中型的重量更大。第四季是否可能正常化？或者說，從混合的角度來看，這還不夠，就像你認為的 3Q 到 4Q 一樣。

Harrie, I know you were talking -- you never talk about that, weren't you?

哈里，我知道你在談論——你從來沒有談論過這個，不是嗎？

Yeah. So medium duty volumes were a little bit higher in the third quarter with some ketchup mirror related to some extent. So in the fourth quarter, we expect a more normal medium bird heavy mix and like we used to see.

是的。因此，第三季中型產量略高，部分番茄醬鏡像在某種程度上與之相關。因此，在第四季度，我們預計會出現更正常的中型鳥類重度混合，就像我們以前看到的那樣。

Got it. Okay. And I assume Harrie that there's not the implications from a profit perspective aren't what they would have been several years ago, just given the improvement, even medium duty side, is that fair?

知道了。好的。我認為哈里從利潤角度來看並沒有像幾年前那樣的影響，只是考慮到改進，即使是中等負荷方面，這公平嗎？

The margins on our medium beauty products are well in line with these days.

我們中等美容產品的利潤與目前的情況非常吻合。

Nice observation, Tim.

很好的觀察，提姆。

As a percentage, they are smaller Turks but the percentage is very similar.

從比例來看，他們是較小的土耳其人，但比例非常相似。

No. All right. Thank you.

不。好的。謝謝。

Kyle Menges, Citi.

凱爾門格斯，花旗銀行。

Thank you. I was just curious, on the R&D guide for next year, just how do we interpret the step up in R&D guidance for next year? Especially given market, we could be in kind of a flat to slightly up market global market for you guys next year.

謝謝。我只是好奇，對於明年的研發指南，我們該如何解讀明年研發指南的升級？特別是考慮到市場，明年我們的全球市場可能會持平到略有上升。

Well, if you think about where we're at this year and if you took a midpoint at 460 then you said if you took the midpoint on something like five or a little over 500 it's not that big of a change in the way we think about R&D is when we have important good projects to work on, be they power train or new truck systems or connectivity or electronics or all the things that will make our trucks more profitable for the customers, then we make those investments and this is the right level of R&D investment for that.

好吧，如果你想想我們今年的處境，如果你把中點定為460，那麼你會說，如果你把中點定為5 或略多於500，那麼我們的思維方式並沒有那麼大的變化。都會進行這些投資，這是正確的研發投入水準。

Got it. And then I know you've talked about a strong vocational market into next year, more related to Class 8. But just any thoughts on how we should be thinking about the medium duty market next year in North America?

知道了。然後我知道您談到了明年的職業市場強勁，更多與 8 級相關。但我們該如何考慮明年北美的中型市場呢？

I think we should see a healthy medium duty market again next year in North America as well. I think it's been good this year and there is, as you just kind of indicated, there's some portion of that, which hits into the vocational market. But overall it should be a good market remain a good market. It's probably the right way to say it, Kyle.

我認為明年我們也應該在北美看到一個健康的中型市場。我認為今年的情況很好，正如您剛才所指出的，其中一部分進入了職業市場。但總體而言，這應該是一個好的市場，仍然是一個很好的市場。這可能是正確的說法，凱爾。

Chad Dillard, Bernstein.

查德·迪拉德，伯恩斯坦。

Hi, good morning guys. So I just got a question for you on, hey, how are you? So just a question for you on what you're embedding for your '25 North America truck guide. I just trying to think through the split between vocational versus tractor. I think you mentioned your truck was about 50% in '24. Is that the same or a little bit higher pre-buy embedded. And then I think you mentioned that the progression of price, cost will go into reverse in '25. So is it fair to say that the fourth quarter is probably the trial for TP and Odor margins?

嗨，大家早安。所以我想問你一個問題，嘿，你好嗎？因此，我想問您一個問題，即您在 '25 北美卡車指南中嵌入了哪些內容。我只是想思考職業與拖拉機之間的差異。我想你提到過你的卡車在 24 年的利用率約為 50%。是一樣的還是高一點預買嵌入式的。然後我想你提到價格和成本的進展將在 25 年逆轉。那麼可以公平地說，第四季度可能是 TP 和 Odor 利潤率的考驗嗎？

I think what we'll expect to see is that the vocational market remains strong, but there's probably a pick up in the truckload sector. So the ratio of tractor to truck might move around a little bit towards heavier tractor as we go through the year next year. See how that starts and when that takes effect as you mentioned. But I think that what we're seeing now, as we said, as we started this year in a really strong position, we're finishing at a point where the truckload carriers are still feeling tension and then as we get into next year into 2025 they're going to want to continue to buy trucks, keep their fleets at the right ages. And so we'll see some increase in the truckload purchases throughout the year. Timing for that we'll see.

我認為我們期望看到的是職業市場仍然強勁，但卡車運輸業可能會有所回升。因此，隨著明年的到來，拖拉機與卡車的比例可能會稍微向重型拖拉機傾斜。正如您所提到的，看看它是如何開始以及何時生效的。但我認為，正如我們所說，我們現在所看到的情況是，當我們今年開始時處於非常有利的地位時，我們將在卡車承運商仍然感到緊張的時候結束，然後當我們進入明年時到2025 年，他們將繼續購買卡車，使車隊保持在適當的年齡。因此，我們將看到全年卡車採購量增加。我們拭目以待。

Got it. Okay. And then a second question for you on the [Finco] business. How should we think about that going into the end of the year and then '25 and more specifically just looking at like the interest and other borrowing expenses seem like there's a pretty big step up and just trying to think through how that evolves.

知道了。好的。然後是關於[Finco]業務的第二個問題。我們應該如何考慮進入年底，然後是 25 年，更具體地說，只是看看利息和其他借款費用似乎有一個相當大的進步，並試圖思考它是如何演變的。

The finance company continues to show strong performance. We have a very healthy portfolio of mainly A&B customers past dues remain low, seen a little credit losses, but that's normal at this point in the cycle. As we get into next year, we will continue to see strong performance of the finance company. Interest rates we are time hedged there. So we issue medium term notes in line with the leases that and the financing contracts that we offer. So we don't have a lot of exposure there.

財務公司持續表現強勁。我們擁有一個非常健康的投資組合，主要由 A 和 B 客戶組成，逾期款項仍然很低，出現了一些信用損失，但在周期的此時點上這是正常的。進入明年，我們將繼續看到財務公司的強勁表現。我們在那裡對利率進行時間對沖。因此，我們根據我們提供的租賃和融資合約發行中期票據。所以我們在那裡沒有太多的曝光。

And in the portfolio, this is Brice, I'd just like to add that our portfolio is growing very nicely. Because we have a market right now where the banks are getting out at times and we're seeing a little bit less competition. Our market share is up actually nicely here in the quarter and we expect a strong continued performance in our business here.

在投資組合中，我是 Brice，我想補充一點，我們的投資組合成長得非常好。因為我們現在的市場有時銀行會退出，我們看到競爭減少。本季我們的市佔率實際上大幅上升，我們預計我們的業務將持續強勁表現。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Jeff Kauffman, Vertical Research Partners.

傑夫考夫曼，垂直研究夥伴。

Thank you very much. Hey, everybody. I want to talk a little bit about. Thank you and congratulations. I want to talk a little bit about the South American growth is going to be exceeding that in the near term for North American Europe. Does it all change the specs on the trucks in terms of what you're seeing and how that might affect ASP.

非常感謝。嘿，大家。我想談談。謝謝你並恭喜你。我想談談南美的成長在短期內將超過北美歐洲。就您所看到的情況以及這可能如何影響 ASP 而言，這一切是否都會改變卡車的規格。

If you think about the truck specific to Brazil, which is the largest market in South America we're participating in is that it really is the DAF truck that we're using there. So that truck is kind of effectively the same truck as we get in Europe. And we have had to put together certain specs for them where they're operating in different operating conditions. More six by fours more sugarcane kind of applications, lumber hauling applications. So it's a bit of heavier duty. So maybe the selling price is a slight bit higher there. But in general, I tend to think about them like a European truck.

如果您考慮一下巴西特有的卡車，巴西是我們參與的南美洲最大的市場，那麼我們在那裡使用的確實是 DAF 卡車。所以那輛卡車實際上和我們在歐洲買到的卡車是一樣的。我們必須為它們在不同的操作條件下運作制定某些規格。更多六乘四的甘蔗種類應用、木材運送應用。所以這個任務有點重。所以那裡的售價可能會稍微高一點。但總的來說，我傾向於將它們視為歐洲卡車。

Okay? And then as we transition in 2025 at some point to a market where maybe truckload LTL is growing a little faster than vocational and international. How might that be affecting ASP as we work our way through '25?

好的？然後，當我們在 2025 年的某個時候過渡到一個市場時，卡車零擔的成長速度可能比職業和國際貨運快一些。當我們努力工作到 25 世紀時，這會對 ASP 產生什麼影響？

I wouldn't put too much energy into trying to figure out the nuance to that. If it was me, I think that you could obviously think that a high content vocational truck is more expensive than a maybe a standard six by four tractor. But I wouldn't probably try to partner that together.

我不會投入太多精力去試圖找出其中的細微差別。如果是我，我想你顯然會認為一輛高含量的職業卡車比一輛標準的六乘四拖拉機更貴。但我可能不會嘗試將其結合在一起。

So there's probably a higher variety and a bigger range in prices for a vocational truck than you would see for online one.

因此，與線上卡車相比，職業卡車的品種可能更多，價格範圍更大。

Yeah. And then if you keep the vocational segment, you start thinking about the medium duty participation in that. I think you'd have a hard thing to kind of set out there.

是的。然後，如果你保留職業部分，你會開始考慮其中的中等職責參與。我認為你在那裡出發會有點困難。

Well, fair enough. I was just looking for some context and that's fine. So that's my one question.

好吧，很公平。我只是在尋找一些背景，這很好。這就是我的一個問題。

Thanks Jeff. Good to talk to you.

謝謝傑夫。很高興和你說話。

Michael Feniger, Bank of America.

麥可費尼格，美國銀行。

Great. Yeah, thank you, gentlemen for taking my questions. Just you guys have really been investing in the business in your trucks, in your facilities. I'm just curious how much more capacity can you bring on to serve the US market? Is it 10% to 15% is it 20% more than what you guys could do previously? And is this higher capacity? Is this available in 2025 in the second half if we see that ramp or is this more of a 2026 that you guys can raise capacity in some of these facilities?

偉大的。是的，謝謝先生們回答我的問題。你們確實一直在投資你們的卡車和設施的業務。我只是好奇你們能為美國市場提供多少產能？是比你們以前能做的多10%到15%還是20%？這是更高的容量嗎？如果我們看到這種成長，這是否可以在 2025 年下半年實現，還是在 2026 年，你們可以提高其中一些設施的產能？

Hey, Mike, thanks for the comments. They're nice to hear, the thing we're doing with our capital expenditures, as we noted is we are making investments in the factories and that's not a new thing, right. We've been doing that over the past few years in anticipation of where the markets will be in our growth. So some of those capacity investments are in and complete others are underway. So we have all the capacity we need for the markets in the coming years. We will not be capacity constrained and we do anticipate growth. So that feels really positive.

嘿，麥克，謝謝你的評論。他們很高興聽到我們正在利用資本支出做的事情，正如我們指出的那樣，我們正在對工廠進行投資，這不是什麼新鮮事，對吧。過去幾年我們一直在這樣做，以預測市場對我們成長的影響。因此，其中一些產能投資已經完成，其他產能投資正在進行中。因此，我們擁有未來幾年市場所需的所有能力。我們不會受到產能限制，我們確實預計會成長。所以感覺非常積極。

Okay. Helpful. And then just, I guess the last question, you guys talked a little bit about a normalization of the used market in North America a little weaker in Europe. So you can kind of flesh that out. And I'm curious if the spread between the new price for a truck, let's say in 2025 versus what you're seeing for a used truck right now, is that spread kind of normal? Is it wider than usual? Just curious if you guys are seeing anything there in the market. Thank you.

好的。有幫助。然後，我想最後一個問題，你們談到了北美二手市場的正常化，歐洲的二手市場稍微弱一些。所以你可以充實它。我很好奇，假設 2025 年卡車的新價格與您現在看到的二手卡車價格之間的價差是否正常？比平常寬嗎？只是好奇你們是否在市場上看到任何東西。謝謝。

As the used truck market normalizes also that spread becomes more normal.

隨著二手卡車市場的正常化，這種傳播也變得更加正常。

If I was to think about it, I would think that what we've seen is, as we said is used truck prices have found their space right now and I think the trucks in the used market will look pretty good to us in 2025. And like we said, we also expect the new trucks to improve in 2025 in terms of market outlook. So it feels like they're staying together, right? There's not a big separation between new and used.

如果我仔細考慮一下，我會認為我們所看到的是，正如我們所說，二手卡車價格現在已經找到了自己的空間，我認為2025 年二手市場上的卡車對我們來說會看起來相當不錯。正如我們所說，我們也預計 2025 年新款卡車的市場前景將有所改善。所以感覺就像他們在一起一樣，對吧？新的和二手的差別並不大。

And just looking at our inventory position in North America that new struck inventory is at very healthy levels for us. So that gives us confidence that we'll be able to operate at good levels there.

只要看看我們在北美的庫存狀況，新庫存對我們來說就處於非常健康的水平。因此，這讓我們有信心在那裡以良好的水平運作。

That was helpful. Thank thanks, gentlemen. Just the last one to squeeze in just. On Parts, I'm curious if there's anything you guys would call out that's weighed on the margin for parts that might normalize or go away next year. Like if next year Parts are up 5% do you think the profit can for Parts can grow more than 5%? Just kind of curious on the puts and takes of what you guys have been seeing the last, this year and how we're thinking about that for '25. Thank you.

這很有幫助。謝謝謝謝，先生們。剛好是最後一個擠進去的。在零件方面，我很好奇你們是否會提出任何對明年可能正常化或消失的零件的邊際影響的因素。例如如果明年零件成長5%，你認為零件的利潤能成長超過5%嗎？只是對你們去年和今年所看到的情況以及我們如何考慮 25 年的情況感到好奇。謝謝。

Yeah, it's a good question. Fun to think about. I think as we noted in our comments, right. There is a smaller overall after sales market in 2024. So purely the number of parts overall has gone down that are being sold, but the Parts team has grown the business even in that environment. So I think as the overall after sales market picks up with increased freight activity that will be good for the business and should be a tailwind for us.

是的，這是一個好問題。想想就很有趣。我認為正如我們在評論中指出的那樣，是的。2024 年售後市場整體規模較小。因此，純粹是銷售的零件數量有所下降，但即使在這種環境下，零件團隊也實現了業務成長。因此，我認為隨著整體售後市場的回升以及貨運活動的增加，這將有利於業務，並且應該成為我們的順風車。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團，沃爾夫研究。

Hey, thanks guys. I just want to follow up on the some of the gross margin commentary. So you had a comment that first half would be pressured and then improve in the second half next year. I'm wondering was that a year over year or a sequential comment. Meaning do we see further sequential gross margin pressure in the first half from where we are now. Or was that just purely a year over year coming?

嘿，謝謝大家。我只想跟進一些毛利率評論。所以你有評論說上半年會受到壓力，然後明年下半年會有所改善。我想知道這是一年又一年的評論還是連續的評論。這意味著我們會看到上半年毛利率比現在的情況進一步受到壓力。或者這只是一年又一年的到來？

Yes, Scott, you might have heard more than we said even there. I think what we actually said was we feel like we will see improvement through the course of 2025. I can't be so specific as to know how that's going to play off, but it does feel like it will be a mirror image of this year. So the strength we saw in the first half in '24 will be, and then the normalization in the third, fourth quarter here likely will be inverted as we get into 2025. But the specifics of that, they're hard to detail out.

是的，斯科特，即使在那裡你聽到的也可能比我們說的還要多。我認為我們實際上所說的是我們覺得到 2025 年我們會看到進步。我無法具體知道這將如何發揮作用，但確實感覺這將是今年的鏡像。因此，我們在 24 年上半年看到的強勢將會是，然後當我們進入 2025 年時，第三、第四季的正常化可能會逆轉。但具體細節，他們很難詳細說明。

Yeah, I mean, ultimately I'm trying to figure out if you think that this Q4 is the bottom for gross margin.

是的，我的意思是，最終我想弄清楚你是否認為第四季是毛利率的底部。

Yeah, I think I understand that. And I think your intuitions aren't far off.

是的，我想我明白這一點。我認為你的直覺並不遙遠。

Okay. And then just lastly, any thoughts on, how you're sort of thinking about approaching the market next year is in terms of market share growth or a little bit more focused on price. How are you balancing that for next year?

好的。最後，關於明年如何進入市場的任何想法都是在市場份額增長方面或更關注價格方面。明年你如何平衡這一點？

Well, we like to see market share growth and we like to see ourselves perform well as a company for our shareholders. We'll be pursuing both of those next year.

嗯，我們希望看到市場份額的成長，我們希望看到我們作為一家公司為股東提供良好的表現。明年我們將追求這兩個目標。

Okay. Thank you guys.

好的。謝謝你們。

Thank you. There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company.

謝謝。目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有什麼補充意見嗎？

Like to thank everyone for joining the call. And thank you, Emily.

感謝大家加入通話。謝謝你，艾米麗。

Thank you everyone for joining us today. This concludes our call and you may now disconnect.

感謝大家今天加入我們。我們的通話到此結束，您現在可以斷開連線了。