帕卡 (PCAR) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to Paccar's fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions). Today's call is being recorded and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time.

早安，歡迎參加帕卡公司2025年第四季財報電話會議。（操作說明）今天的通話正在錄音，如有異議，請立即掛斷電話。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我謹向大家介紹 PACCAR 的投資者關係總監 Ken Hastings 先生。哈斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome, everyone. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Kevin Baney, President; and Brice Poplawski, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

各位早安，歡迎各位。我是肯‧黑斯廷斯，PACCAR公司的投資人關係總監。今天早上和我一起的還有執行長普雷斯頓·費特、總裁凱文·巴尼以及高級副總裁兼財務長布萊斯·波普拉夫斯基。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings in the Investor Relations page of paccar.com.

與以往的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有參與電話會議的媒體成員以只聽模式參與。今天公佈的某些資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及可能影響預期結果的風險和不確定性。如需了解更多信息，請訪問 paccar.com 的投資者關係頁面，查看我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

現在我來介紹普雷斯頓費特。

Good morning. Kevin Baney, Brice Poplawski, Ken Hastings, and I will update you on our very good fourth quarter and full year 2025 results as well as other business highlights. PACCAR's fourth quarter revenues were $6.8 billion and net income was $557 million.

早安.Kevin Baney、Brice Poplawski、Ken Hastings 和我將向大家匯報我們非常出色的第四季度和 2025 年全年業績以及其他業務亮點。PACCAR第四季營收為68億美元，淨利為5.57億美元。

In 2025, PACCAR achieved annual revenues of $28.4 billion and adjusted net income of $2.64 billion, which is the fourth highest profit year in company history and the 87th consecutive year of profits. Adjusted after-tax return on revenue was 9.3%. I'm proud of PACCAR's outstanding employees, who delivered these results by providing our customers with the highest quality trucks and transportation solutions in the industry.

2025 年，PACCAR 實現年收入 284 億美元，調整後淨收入 26.4 億美元，這是公司歷史上第四高的利潤年份，也是連續第 87 年獲利。經調整後的稅後所得報酬率為 9.3%。我為 PACCAR 的傑出員工感到自豪，他們透過向我們的客戶提供業內最高品質的卡車和運輸解決方案，取得了這些成果。

PACCAR Parts and PACCAR Financial Services each achieved quarterly and annual revenue records. PACCAR Parts and Financial Services represent an increasing percentage of the overall business and contribute to PACCAR's structurally stronger performance.

PACCAR Parts 和 PACCAR Financial Services 分別創下了季度和年度營收紀錄。PACCAR 零件和金融服務業務在整體業務中所佔比例越來越高，並為 PACCAR 結構性地增強績效做出了貢獻。

2025 was a dynamic year in the North American truck industry with soft freight markets, tariffs and emissions policy uncertainties. In this environment, Kenworth and Peterbilt made strong contribution to PACCAR's results.

2025 年是北美卡車產業充滿變數的一年，貨運市場疲軟，關稅和排放政策也存在不確定性。在這種環境下，肯沃斯和彼得比爾特為 PACCAR 的表現做出了巨大貢獻。

Importantly, we ended last year with tariff and emissions clarity. The Section 232 truck tariff policy that became effective on November 1, provides advantages to PACCAR, who produces trucks in the United States, Canada, and Mexico for each local market. I'm proud of PACCAR's excellent team, who have created this cost-effective, flexible and robust manufacturing strategy.

重要的是，去年年底我們明確了關稅和排放問題。11 月 1 日生效的第 232 條卡車關稅政策為 PACCAR 公司帶來了優勢，該公司在美國、加拿大和墨西哥生產卡車，並銷往各個當地市場。我為 PACCAR 的優秀團隊感到自豪，他們創造了這種經濟高效、靈活穩健的製造策略。

In late 2025, it was confirmed that the 35-milligram EPA27 NOx limit will go into effect in January of next year. This brings clarity to the market and helps customers make their buying decisions. PACCAR is wonderfully positioned for these changes with the newest line up of trucks and engines that are the most efficient and highest quality in the industry.

2025 年末，確認 35 毫克 EPA27 NOx 限值將於明年 1 月生效。這有助於釐清市場狀況，並幫助消費者做出購買決定。PACCAR憑藉其最新卡車和引擎產品線，在應對這些變化方面佔據了絕佳位置，這些產品是業內效率最高、品質最好的。

Last year, U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck retail sales were 233,000 units and Kenworth and Peterbilt delivered a market share of 30%. The U.S. economy is projected to expand this year, the less-than-truckload and vocational truck sector, where Peterbilt and Kenworth are the market leaders, are steady.

去年，美國和加拿大的 8 級卡車零售銷售量為 233,000 輛，肯沃斯和彼得比爾特的市佔率為 30%。今年美國經濟預計將擴張，而彼得比爾特和肯沃斯是市場領導者的零擔貨運和專用卡車行業則保持穩定。

The Truckload segment is beginning to accelerate with industry customer demand and spot rates picking up in December. The 2026 U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck market is forecast to be in a range of 230,000 to 270,000 vehicles as economic growth, regulatory and tariff clarity and improving freight conditions are poised to improve customer demand.

12 月份，隨著產業客戶需求和現貨價格的回升，整車運輸市場開始加速成長。預計到 2026 年，美國和加拿大 8 級卡車市場規模將達到 23 萬至 27 萬輛，經濟成長、監管和關稅明細以及貨運條件的改善將提振客戶需求。

In Europe, DAF trucks have a competitive advantage in the market, with their innovative aerodynamic design that features the largest and most luxurious cab interior, and the best powertrain choices. In recognition of this, the DAF team earned the prestigious International Truck of the Year Award for the DAF XF and XD electric trucks.

在歐洲，DAF 卡車憑藉其創新的空氣動力學設計，擁有最大、最豪華的駕駛室內部空間和最佳的動力系統選擇，在市場上具有競爭優勢。為此，DAF 團隊憑藉 DAF XF 和 XD 電動卡車榮獲了享有盛譽的國際年度卡車獎。

It's noteworthy that this is the third time in five years that DAF has won this award. In 2025, the European above 16-tonne truck market was 298,000 units. This year, the European economy is forecast to grow modestly, and we expect the above 16-tonne truck market to be in the range of 280,000 to 320,000 registrations.

值得注意的是，這是 DAF 在五年內第三次獲得該獎項。到 2025 年，歐洲 16 噸以上卡車市場規模將達到 298,000 輛。今年，歐洲經濟預計將溫和成長，我們預計16噸以上的卡車市場註冊量將在28萬至32萬輛之間。

In addition to the excellent businesses in Europe and Brazil, DAF is also expanding in the Andean region of South America. Last year, the South American above 16-tonne market was 115,000 vehicles, and is expected to be in the range of 100,000 to 110,000 trucks this year.

除了在歐洲和巴西擁有優秀的業務外，DAF 還在南美洲的安第斯地區擴張。去年，南美洲16噸以上卡車市場銷量為11.5萬輛，預計今年銷量將在10萬至11萬輛之間。

Other 2025 business highlights included PACCAR earning the elite A rating from Climate Disclosure Project for its environmental performance, DAF being honored as the Fleet Truck of the Year in the U.K., DAF, Kenworth and Peterbilt introducing the next generation of battery electric trucks, PACCAR completing a new engine remanufacturing facility in Mississippi, and Kenworth completing a new chassis paint facility in Ohio.

2025 年的其他業務亮點包括：PACCAR 因其環境績效獲得氣候揭露計畫 (Climate Disclosure Project) 的精英 A 評級；DAF 榮獲英國年度最佳車隊卡車獎；DAF、Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 推出下一代電池電動卡車；PACCAR 在密西西比州建成新的發動機再製造廠；以及 Kenworth 在俄亥俄州建成新的底盤噴漆廠。

The PACCAR delivered 32,900 trucks in the fourth quarter and deliveries are forecast to be at a comparable level in the first quarter of 2026. Fourth quarter Truck, Parts and Other gross margins were 12%, and we estimate that first quarter gross margins will increase to 12.5% to 13%. We look forward to 2026 being a year of accelerated growth for our customers, dealers and PACCAR.

PACCAR 在第四季度交付了 32,900 輛卡車，預計 2026 年第一季的交付量將達到類似的水平。第四季卡車、零件及其他業務的毛利率為 12%，我們預計第一季毛利率將成長至 12.5% 至 13%。我們期待 2026 年成為我們的客戶、經銷商和 PACCAR 加速成長的一年。

Kevin Baney will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, financial services as well as other business highlights. Kevin?

Kevin Baney 將介紹 PACCAR 零件、金融服務以及其他業務亮點的最新情況。凱文？

Thank you, Preston. In 2025, PACCAR declared dividends of $2.72 per share, including a year-end dividend of $1.40 per share. This resulted in a dividend yield of nearly 3%. PACCAR has paid a dividend for a significant 84 consecutive years.

謝謝你，普雷斯頓。2025 年，PACCAR 宣布每股股息 2.72 美元，其中包括每股 1.40 美元的年終股息。這使得股息殖利率接近3%。PACCAR已連續84年派發股息。

Last year, PACCAR Parts’ annual revenues increased by 3% to a record $6.9 billion and pretax profits were a strong $1.67 billion. Fourth quarter revenues increased 4% to a record $1.7 billion with pretax profits of $415 million. PACCAR Parts’ performance reflects the benefits of investments in connectivity and Agentic AI that increase vehicle uptime and enhance the success of our customers.

去年，PACCAR Parts 的年收入成長了 3%，達到創紀錄的 69 億美元，稅前利潤也達到了強勁的 16.7 億美元。第四季營收成長 4%，達到創紀錄的 17 億美元，稅前利潤為 4.15 億美元。PACCAR Parts 的表現反映了在互聯互通和智慧人工智慧方面的投資所帶來的益處，這些投資提高了車輛正常運行時間，並增強了我們客戶的成功。

PACCAR Parts is continuing to expand, and now has 21 distribution centers worldwide, including a new distribution center in Calgary. This new PDC enhances parts availability, and delivery times to Canadian dealers and customers.

PACCAR Parts 持續擴張，目前在全球擁有 21 個配送中心，其中包括位於卡加利的一個新的配送中心。新的PDC提高了零件的供應能力，並縮短了向加拿大經銷商和客戶的交貨時間。

Parts aftermarket Parts business provides strong profitability through all phases of the business cycle. We estimate parts sales to grow by 4% to 8% this year, with growth accelerating as the year progresses. Last year, PACCAR Financial Services achieved record annual revenues of $2.2 billion, and annual pretax income grew 11% to $485 million.

零件售後市場業務在整個商業週期中都能提供強勁的獲利能力。我們預計今年零件銷售額將成長 4% 至 8%，隨著時間的推移，成長速度將加快。去年，PACCAR金融服務公司實現了創紀錄的22億美元年度收入，年度稅前收入成長11%，達到4.85億美元。

Fourth quarter revenues were a record $569 million, and quarterly pretax income grew 10% to $115 million. PACCAR Financial provides the highest quality service in the market and makes it easy for customers to do business with PACCAR through the use of technology in the credit application and loan servicing process.

第四季營收創下 5.69 億美元的紀錄，季度稅前利潤成長 10% 至 1.15 億美元。PACCAR Financial 提供市場上最高品質的服務，並透過在信貸申請和貸款服務流程中使用技術，使客戶能夠輕鬆地與 PACCAR 開展業務。

PACCAR Financial increased market share to 27%, a growth of 2 percentage points when compared to 2024. Capital project investments last year were $728 million, while research and development investments were $446 million. This year, we are planning capital investments in the range of $725 million to $775 million and R&D expenses in the range of $450 million to $500 million.

PACCAR Financial 的市佔率成長至 27%，與 2024 年相比成長了 2 個百分點。去年資本項目投資為 7.28 億美元，而研發投資為 4.46 億美元。今年，我們計劃投入資本 7.25 億美元至 7.75 億美元，研發支出 4.5 億美元至 5 億美元。

This year's investments on key technology and innovation projects include the creation of next-generation clean diesel, hybrid and alternative powertrains, battery cells, integrated connected vehicle services, flexible manufacturing capabilities, PACCAR's autonomous vehicle platform, and advanced driver assist systems.

今年對關鍵技術和創新項目的投資包括：下一代清潔柴油、混合動力和替代動力系統、電池單元、整合式互聯汽車服務、靈活製造能力、PACCAR 的自動駕駛汽車平台以及高級駕駛輔助系統。

PACCAR's independent Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF dealers consistently invest in their businesses, enhancing our industry-leading distribution network, and they make a significant contribution to PACCAR's long-term success.

PACCAR 的獨立 Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 經銷商不斷投資於他們的業務，增強了我們領先業界的分銷網絡，並為 PACCAR 的長期成功做出了重大貢獻。

PACCAR is looking forward to a great year in 2026. Thank you. We'd be pleased to answer your questions.

PACCAR期待在2026年迎來輝煌的一年。謝謝。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

David Raso, Evercore Inc.

David Raso，Evercore 公司

Thank you for the time. I was just curious, can you walk us through the margin improvement you expect from 4Q to 1Q despite the flat deliveries?

感謝您抽出時間。我只是好奇，您能否詳細說明一下，儘管交付量持平，您預計從第四季度到第一季利潤率將如何提高？

4Q to 1Q, the thinking is, David, is a lot to unpack there, but one of thing you look at in fourth quarter is we had the 232 going into effect. Obviously, that went into effect November 1, say, the month, we had higher tariffs. So that happened in there.

從第四季到第一季度，David，有很多事情需要分析，但第四季你要關注的一件事是，232 條款開始生效。顯然，這項措施從11月1日左右生效，也就是我們實施較高關稅的那個月。事情就是這樣發生的。

The other thing that wasn't significant is our manufacturing teams in the fourth quarter did a really great job of being able to convert the factories over to build trucks local for local. So for example, Chillicothe and Denton are now building the medium-duty trucks. And in Canada, we're able to build all of the product lines, principally for Canada.

另一件不太重要的事是，我們的製造團隊在第四季做得非常出色，他們成功地將工廠改造為本地生產卡車。例如，奇利科西和丹頓現在正在生產中型卡車。在加拿大，我們能夠生產所有產品線，主要針對加拿大市場。

So that's a lot of adjustment in schedules during the fourth quarter, which had some impact on margins, and as we look forward, we get a full quarter in quarter 1 of margins that are benefiting from the 232 tariff. There's the clarity of NOx 27, which happens. So I think that's starting to have some improvement.

因此，第四季度的日程安排進行了許多調整，這對利潤率產生了一定的影響。展望未來，我們將在第一季獲得完整的利潤率，這得益於 232 號關稅。NOx 27 的清晰度是存在的。所以我覺得情況開始好轉。

Order intake has been very good, very strong in December and through January. So we're seeing some uptick in terms of customer demand, which is good for our business as well. And that's what's driving up the margin 12.5% to 13% in Q1 compared to the 12% in Q4.

訂單量一直非常可觀，12月和1月的訂單量尤其強勁。因此，我們看到客戶需求回升，這對我們的業務來說也是好事。這就是為什麼第一季利潤率從第四季的 12% 上升到 12.5% 至 13% 的原因。

And that last point about orders, I would have thought maybe the build sequentially could be up. What's the translation from those orders into when you expect to produce those trucks?

至於最後一點關於訂單的問題，我原本以為可以按順序建造。根據這些訂單，你們預計何時能夠生產這些卡車？

Yeah. I mean, I think you know the cadence of it is a lot of orders at the end of the year come in as fleets that are spread delivery throughout the year. So that's a little bit of what I think everybody saw in the fourth quarter.

是的。我的意思是，我想你知道其中的規律，很多訂單都是在年底以車隊的形式下達，然後全年分批交付。所以，我想這就是大家在第四節比賽中看到的一些情況。

And then what we're seeing now is a little bit more close in terms of order intake, but it's allowing us to build up our backlog a little bit, increased visibility a little bit. And then that's what's going to translate into higher build in the outer quarters.

而現在我們看到的情況是，訂單接收量更接近預期，但這也讓我們能夠稍微累積一些積壓訂單，提高一些可見度。這樣一來，外側車身就會顯得更高。

And lastly, to quantify a little bit 4Q to 1Q. Can you give us some sense of the price/cost dynamic in truck in the fourth quarter, and maybe how to frame it with the Section 232 benefits for 1Q?

最後，稍微量化一下第四季到第一季的情況。您能否為我們介紹一下第四季卡車的價格/成本動態，以及如何將其與第一季的第 232 條款優惠連結起來？

Yeah. I think you can see favorability coming in Q1 compared to Q4 in price cost, most significantly is cost reductions that we would expect to see. And again, doing that comparison of the work our factories did, that has some cost impact in the fourth quarter in terms of getting the right trucks in the right places.

是的。我認為與第四季度相比，第一季的價格成本將有所下降，最顯著的是我們預期會看到的成本降低。再次比較我們工廠的工作情況，這在第四季度對成本產生了一定影響，因為要確保合適的卡車能夠送到合適的地方。

And then again, we get the benefit of 232 in Q1. So it gets a lot more stable in that for a net positive price cost on truck. Brice, you had something.

然後，我們又獲得了第一季 232 的好處。因此，卡車的淨價格成本為正值，情況就穩定得多。布萊斯，你以前有東西。

Yeah, we also had a higher level of overtime in the fourth quarter because of the events that Preston spoke to. And getting all the trucks out at the end of the year, our employees did a fantastic job getting all the trucks out that our customers so desperately want to have. So we felt really good about that. That should not be recurring in the first quarter either.

是的，由於普雷斯頓提到的那些事件，我們在第四節的加時賽次數也比較多。在年底把所有卡車都運出來的時候，我們的員工做得非常出色，把客戶們迫切需要的所有卡車都運了出來。所以我們對這一點感到非常滿意。這種情況在第一季也不應該再次發生。

All right. Thank you for the time.

好的。感謝您抽出時間。

Yeah. Thanks, David. Have a good day.

是的。謝謝你，大衛。祝你有美好的一天。

Jerry Revich, Wells Fargo

傑瑞雷維奇，富國銀行

Hi. Good morning, and good afternoon, everyone. Kevin, congratulations. I'm wondering if you could just talk about what you're seeing in the performance of your aftermarket business in January by region. It feels like there's an uptick in Europe, in particular, that's playing out.

你好。各位早安，各位下午好。凱文，恭喜你。我想請您談談您一月份按地區劃分的售後市場業務表現。感覺歐洲尤其出現了這種上升趨勢。

But I'm wondering if you could just provide the context, you just provided on orders for aftermarket Europe and U.S., please?

但我很想知道您能否提供您剛才提到的關於歐洲和美國售後市場訂單的背景資訊？

Yeah. Sure, Jerry. So forecast for Q1 is 3% growth year-over-year. Team did a great job, let's say, in a soft parts market with record sales growth for last year and definitely for the fourth quarter. And what we are seeing is a soft part market customers, really are focused on required maintenance. And so we saw a mix shift towards that.

是的。當然可以，傑瑞。因此，預計第一季將年增3%。可以說，團隊在去年銷售額創紀錄成長的軟零件市場，尤其是在第四季度，做得非常好。我們看到的是，零件市場的客戶真正關注的是必要的維護。因此，我們看到產品組合朝這個方向轉變。

We've got great AI agentic tools to help identify that and not only get that mix shift in our distribution centers, but also out with the dealers. And so we've got a forecast of 4% to 8% growth for this year. And we'll see that definitely, as we see the truck side accelerate through the year, we'll see that on the parts side as well.

我們擁有強大的 AI 代理工具來幫助識別這一點，不僅可以在我們的配送中心實現這種組合轉變，還可以將其傳遞給經銷商。因此，我們預測今年的成長率為 4% 至 8%。我們肯定會看到，隨著卡車業務在今年加速成長，零件業務也會隨之加速成長。

Super. And then in Europe specifically split.

極好的。然後，在歐洲，情況就完全不同了。

Yeah. And then just the split in -- yes, that's what I was about to say. And then just the split in region is, I think, it will be consistent in North America as well as Europe.

是的。然後就出現了分裂——是的，我正要說這個。我認為，就區域劃分而言，北美和歐洲的情況將保持一致。

Very interesting. Thank you for the color. And then can we just double click on Europe a little bit. So production was really high in the quarter versus normal seasonality, and you took up your outlook for Europe. Can you just expand on what you're seeing in terms of -- is it a particular set of countries that are driving the demand acceleration for you folks in Europe? Or how broad is the activity improvement?

很有意思。謝謝你提供的色彩。然後我們再稍微雙擊一下歐洲。因此，本季產量遠高於正常季節性水平，您也對歐洲市場前景進行了展望。您能否詳細說明您觀察到的情況—是否是某些特定國家推動了歐洲的需求加速成長？或者說，活動改進的範圍有多廣？

Yeah. The market finished at -- I'll focus on heavy duty at 297,000 and so relatively strong market for Europe. No specific focus on any given region. Obviously, depending on where you are in Europe, some markets are stronger than others. We continue to focus on premium trucks.

是的。市場收盤價為——我將重點關注重型設備，成交價為 297,000，因此歐洲市場相對強勁。沒有特別關注任何特定地區。顯然，根據你在歐洲的位置，有些市場比其他市場更強。我們將繼續專注於高端卡車。

Preston said, we are recognized as Fleet Truck of the Year in the U.K., International Truck of the Year for the DOF XF and XD, and so we just -- we took the market up because we see similar strong market this year as well.

普雷斯頓說，我們獲得了英國年度最佳車隊卡車獎，DOF XF 和 XD 獲得了國際年度最佳卡車獎，所以我們——我們進軍了市場，因為我們看到今年的市場也同樣強勁。

And lastly, can I ask on Section 232 as that starts to impact your competitors, how are you thinking about market share versus unit profitability from a PACCAR standpoint, as we look back historically, you folks have targeted improving unit profitability cycle over cycle.

最後，關於第 232 條款，因為它開始影響你們的競爭對手，我想問一下，從 PACCAR 的角度來看，你們是如何看待市場份額與單位盈利能力的？回顧歷史，你們一直致力於提升單位獲利能力。

And so as we're thinking about the benefits from the rebate program as well as chatter out there for $9,000 type price increases. Can you just provide a PACCAR perspective on where you see unit profitability going and how you folks are thinking about market share versus profitability given Section 232 even is the playing field for you folks?

因此，當我們考慮退款計劃的好處以及外界關於價格上漲 9000 美元左右的傳言時。您能否從 PACCAR 的角度談談您對單位盈利能力的看法，以及在《232 條款》為您提供公平競爭環境的情況下，您如何看待市場份額與盈利能力之間的關係？

Yeah. I think the last statement you made is really instructive because throughout 2025, there was a bit of a disadvantage. And now I think we anticipate that to be an advantage. It doesn't come through quickly, right? It's a competitive world out there.

是的。我認為你最後那句話很有啟發性，因為在 2025 年，我們確實處於一些不利地位。現在我認為我們預計這將是一個優勢。它不會很快到賬，對吧？這是一個競爭激烈的世界。

So in the first quarter, many of our competitors haven't taken that to the market, those tariff cuts to the market yet, which keeps things in a bit of a very competitive state, maintains that dynamic nature we were talking about in our commentary, but through the year, we feel good about our opportunity to gain in terms of margin and market share as the year progresses and things stabilize out.

因此，在第一季度，我們的許多競爭對手還沒有將這些關稅削減措施推向市場，這使得市場競爭仍然非常激烈，並維持了我們在評論中提到的那種動態特性。但是，隨著時間的推移和市場的穩定，我們對今年在利潤率和市場份額方面獲得提升的機會感到樂觀。

Because it does seem stable now, and because our teams have done such a good job getting the local-for-local manufacturing, there really should be an opportunity for us in both categories. Thank you.

因為現在看來情況比較穩定，而且我們的團隊在在地化生產方面做得非常出色，所以我們在這兩個領域都應該有機會。謝謝。

Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research LLC

Rob Wertheimer，Melius Research LLC

I'm so sorry. Just following up on Jerry's, the cycle margins and where your kind of competitive and production position sits in North America now versus in the past? Is there any reason to think as things normalize over the next year or two or three that your truck margins should be anything different from average, whether higher or lower? And I have one follow-up. Thank you.

我很抱歉。我只是想跟進一下 Jerry 的問題，關於週期利潤率，以及你們公司目前在北美市場的競爭地位和生產狀況與過去相比如何？未來一兩年或三年內，隨著情況逐漸恢復正常，是否有任何理由認為卡車運輸的利潤率會與平均值有所不同，無論是更高還是更低？我還有一個後續問題。謝謝。

I would say, Rob, that predicting out one, two, three years in the operating environment we're in is a little bit challenging in terms of what things are going to look like. There's a USMCA negotiation that's going to take place probably later this year, so it will be instructive to look at that. So I think that could have an impact on how margins feel.

羅布，我想說，在我們目前的經營環境下，預測未來一兩年甚至三年的發展趨勢有點困難，很難預測事情會變成什麼樣子。今年稍後可能會舉行美墨加協定談判，所以關註一下會很有啟發意義。所以我認為這可能會對利潤率的感受產生影響。

What I think we're focused on is making sure that the trucks we're providing have the greatest value to our customers. And to that end, as you know, right, we have the newest line up of trucks out there, and one of the things that we're now focusing on is how we're going to be able to help our customers be more profitable through the use of the Agentic AI that Kevin mentioned, but also maybe more generally in connected truck data.

我認為我們關注的重點是確保我們提供的卡車能為我們的客戶帶來最大的價值。為此，正如您所知，我們推出了最新的卡車系列，而我們現在關注的重點之一是如何透過使用凱文提到的智慧人工智慧，以及更廣泛意義上的互聯卡車數據，來幫助我們的客戶提高獲利能力。

So our ability to have connected every truck be connected and gather like petabytes of data from our trucks and then use that data to provide customer value is significant in the coming years. So that's what we can control, and that's where our focus is, because high-quality trucks, lowest cost of ownership, highest reliability and new transportation solutions for our customers would help them be more successful.

因此，在未來幾年，我們能夠讓每輛卡車都連網，從卡車上收集PB級數據，然後利用這些數據為客戶創造價值，這將具有重要意義。所以這是我們能夠控制的，也是我們關注的重點，因為高品質的卡車、最低的擁有成本、最高的可靠性和為我們的客戶提供新的運輸解決方案，將有助於他們取得更大的成功。

Interesting. I look forward to hearing more about that. and then just a quick one. Did you mention your European market share for the year?

有趣的。我很期待聽到更多相關消息。然後就簡單問一個問題。您有提到貴公司今年的歐洲市佔率嗎？

Yeah, I hadn't yet, Rob, but it was 13.5% on the heavy duty side.

是的，羅布，我還沒有，但重型設備的故障率是 13.5%。

Perfect. I'll have a bunch of questions for you shortly and thank you very much.

完美的。我稍後會問您一些問題，非常感謝。

Thank you. Look forward to sharing more with.

謝謝。期待與你分享更多。

Steven Fisher, UBS.

史蒂文費雪，瑞銀集團。

Great. Thanks. Good morning. Just wanted to confirm some of the production dynamics in the quarter, the 15,000 in U.S. and Canada, I thought I heard you say that maybe that was affected by sort of shifting local for local. How much of -- I guess, was the 15,000 less than what you expected.

偉大的。謝謝。早安.我只是想確認本季的一些生產動態，關於美國和加拿大的 15,000 件產品，我好像聽您說過，這可能受到了本地化生產模式轉變的影響。我猜，15000比你預期的少了多少？

How did that compare? How much of that, if you could break it out, was tied to sort of shifting that production plans around or was there anything else going on in the quarter?

相比之下如何？如果可以的話，請問其中有多少是由於調整生產計劃造成的？還是說本季還有其他原因？

Yeah. I think it's not what we expected.

是的。我覺得這和我們預想的不一樣。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes, we can. Can you hear us?

是的，我們可以。你們聽得到我們說話嗎？

Okay. Yes. Sure.

好的。是的。當然。

Yeah. So that 15,000 is kind of right where we thought it would be right in the range of where we thought it would be. Europe probably delivered a few more, maybe North America, a little less.

是的。所以，15000 這個數字和我們預想的差不多，就在我們預想的範圍內。歐洲可能多產一些，北美可能較少產。

But what we really saw is a cadence change through the quarter and a cadence change continuing through the first quarter of stronger order intake, the ability for the truck plans, as we mentioned -- team mentioned, because I'm so proud of them, but for them to be able to keep the build going while they were doing this transition to build was really impressive.

但我們真正看到的是整個季度節奏的變化，以及訂單量強勁增長後第一季節奏的持續變化，這為卡車計劃提供了能力。正如我們所提到的——團隊也提到了這一點，因為我為他們感到非常自豪——他們能夠在進行這種生產過渡的同時保持生產，這真的令人印象深刻。

So if there was anything, a few hundred units might have been varied in there where they were working through bringing in trucks out of Mexico, bringing in trucks out of Canada and bringing that flexibility and then the team in Canada flexing into a wide variety of model mixes built in Sainte.

所以，如果真有什麼變化的話，那就是幾百個單元可能有所不同，他們當時正在努力從墨西哥進口卡車，從加拿大進口卡車，從而帶來這種靈活性，然後加拿大的團隊靈活地適應在聖埃斯皮里圖製造的各種車型組合。

There are some inefficiencies in that, but their ability to manage that was significant and really impressive. And so I don't think we're too surprised at all by it. What we feel good about is the stability we have going forward and how that's going to be helpful to the build cadence through the 2026 calendar year.

這其中存在著一些效率低下的地方，但他們處理這些問題的能力非常顯著，令人印象深刻。所以我覺得我們對此一點也不感到驚訝。我們感到欣慰的是，我們未來的發展將保持穩定，這將對 2026 年全年的建設節奏有所幫助。

Okay. That's helpful. And then, I guess translating that into then the first quarter flat, can you just give us sort of the regional color there directionally for U.S. and -- U.S., Canada versus Europe?

好的。那很有幫助。然後，我想把這個結果轉化成第一季持平，您能否大致介紹美國以及美國、加拿大與歐洲的區域趨勢？

Yeah. We see U.S., Canada up some and then Europe down a little bit as the higher deliveries in the fourth quarter at year-end in Europe.

是的。我們看到美國和加拿大的銷量有所成長，而歐洲的銷量則略有下降，因為歐洲在年底第四季的交付量較高。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley & Co Ltd

安赫爾‧卡斯蒂略，摩根士丹利有限公司

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to unpack a little bit more on the order uptick. You noted the continuation of maybe some of that into January. We saw a strong December order data. So could you just expand on maybe the shape of the strength in January? And just maybe any details on what percentage of your order book or order slots are now filled for kind of 1Q and 2Q.

您好，感謝您回答我的問題。想再詳細解釋一下訂單量激增的原因。您提到其中一些情況可能會延續到一月。12月份的訂單數據表現強勁。那麼，您能否詳細說明一月份的強勢走勢呢？或許還可以提供一些關於第一季和第二季訂單簿或訂單槽位已完成百分比的詳細資訊。

And then maybe just related to that, like if you could expand on just the areas where you're seeing the uptick in orders, is there any kind of particular pockets, whether it's vocational or is it more related to EPA prebuy? Like what are you hearing in terms of the strength in those orders?

然後，或許可以就此談談，例如您能否詳細說明一下訂單量上升的領域，是否存在某種特定的群體，無論是職業技能培訓還是與 EPA 預購相關的培訓？你覺得這些訂單的力道如何？

Yeah. I think as you articulated the numbers for December, you know those order intakes, I'd say January continued in that same level of cadence of significant overbuild rate order intake. Some spread delivery there as you talked about fleets that are kind of putting in their buying decisions, but also some things that are closer in, as you mentioned, vocational, and we're seeing some significant orders from bodybuilders coming into our mix now so they can replenish their inventory for 2026, and then a steadiness in the LTL market.

是的。我認為，正如你闡述 12 月的數據時所說，你知道那些訂單量，我認為 1 月也延續了同樣的節奏，訂單量大幅超過了之前的產能。正如你所說，一些車隊正在做出購買決定，但也有一些更貼近實際的訂單，正如你提到的，是職業運輸，我們現在看到一些來自健美運動員的大訂單，以便他們為 2026 年補充庫存，然後零擔運輸市場趨於穩定。

So it's kind of a mixture. You articulated that well, and that's what we see. So, strong order intake, kind of across the board, which is helping us grow those backlogs, which is going to be positive for the year. And then I would say, I may add is in Q1 were mostly full. And then as you know, we'll look at Q2 as we get to the next earnings call.

所以這是一種混合體。你表達得很好，而這正是我們所看到的。因此，訂單量全面強勁，這有助於我們增加積壓訂單，這對今年來說將是一個積極的信號。然後我想補充一點，第一季大部分時間都已滿員。然後，正如您所知，我們將在下次財報電話會議上討論第二季度的情況。

That's very helpful. And then maybe just along those lines, on the North America truck outlook for the year, I guess, U.S. and Canada, can you just expand a little bit. So you raised Europe and South America, but it sounds like the level of orders here is pretty robust, but you got the North America unit outlook unchanged. How should we read that?

那很有幫助。然後，或許可以順著這個思路，談談北美卡車市場今年的前景，特別是美國和加拿大，您能否再詳細闡述？所以你提高了歐洲和南美洲的訂單量，但聽起來這裡的訂單水準相當強勁，而北美地區的銷售預期保持不變。我們該如何解讀這句話？

Is there any nuances to what you're seeing, maybe whether it's market share shifts or that this positions you may be better for -- or the industry better for the top end of the range we have provided. How should we kind of take that into context, given the unchanged guides for the industry?

你觀察到的情況有什麼細微差別嗎？例如市場佔有率的變化，或者這些職位可能更適合你——或者說，這些職位更適合我們提供的職位範圍的高端市場。鑑於產業指南沒有改變，我們該如何看待這個問題？

Well, I think the truth is, our unchanged is higher than maybe like ACT was previously. So we feel -- we felt good about 2026. We still feel good about 2026. And so there's really no change from our positive sense of what's going to come through the year and the fact that it's going to be a year of acceleration for us, and acceleration sequentially is what we'd expect to see through the year.

我認為事實是，我們不變的成績可能比以前的ACT成績還要高。所以我們感覺——我們對2026年充滿信心。我們對2026年仍然充滿信心。因此，我們對今年的發展前景依然保持樂觀，並認為這將是我們加速發展的一年，我們預計今年的發展趨勢也將是循序漸進的。

Very helpful.

很有幫助。

Thank you. You bet.

謝謝。當然。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

Scott Group，Wolfe Research。

Hey. Thanks. So when truck rates start moving higher, we tend to see more truck orders. It feels like some of the reason why truck rates are going higher right now is that there's fewer drivers and the government is focused on nondomicile and things like that. If this is more of a supply-driven cycle with fewer drivers, how do you think about what that means for truck orders and this cycle going forward?

嘿。謝謝。所以當卡車運費開始上漲時，我們往往會看到更多的卡車訂單。感覺目前卡車運費上漲的部分原因是司機減少，而政府則專注於非居民司機等問題。如果這是一個由供應驅動、司機減少的周期，您認為這對卡車訂單和未來的周期意味著什麼？

I think it's a great point, Scott. And you -- obviously, you're dialed in on what's going on there, but if there are fewer drivers that maybe aren't meeting the legal requirements, those drivers probably are working on the lower side of the contract rates and the spot rate businesses. And then what you see is those more established carriers tend to have probably somewhat higher rates.

我覺得你說得很有道理，史考特。顯然，你很清楚那裡的情況，但如果司機數量較少，而且可能不符合法律要求，那麼這些司機可能只能在合約費率和現貨費率較低的行業中工作。然後你會發現，那些較成熟的業者往往收費也較高一些。

The fact that there's fewer that low side drivers enables them to probably command a better rate positioning. I think there's some of that going on right now. Obviously, as they get better rate positioning, their profitability will hopefully improve and then that will drive their ability to have better cash flow and purchase more trucks.

低端驅動器數量較少這一事實，可能使它們能夠佔據更好的利率位置。我認為現在確實存在這種情況。顯然，隨著他們獲得更好的運價定位，他們的獲利能力有望提高，然後這將增強他們的現金流能力，並使他們能夠購買更多的卡車。

And then a similar question. When you -- this order pick up, do you have a sense, is this more replacement? Or is there any growth? And if it is sort of more replacement, I don't know, just thoughts on how you see the used truck market evolving over the course of the year.

然後又有人問了一個類似的問題。當你——取走這份訂單時，你有沒有感覺，這更像是替代品？或者說，是否有任何成長？如果更多的是車輛替換，我不知道，只是您認為二手卡車市場在今年會如何發展的一些想法。

Yeah. I think in the used truck space, it's kind of an interesting kind of read through to me is, we think that as the year goes on, used trucks should become more valuable, simply because of things are shaping out in the marketplace, even into next year. So it should be positive right now.

是的。我認為在二手卡車領域，有一個很有趣的解讀：我們認為隨著時間的推移，二手卡車的價值會越來越高，這只是因為市場狀況正在發生變化，甚至會持續到明年。所以現在應該是正面的。

There's been a little bit of a downtick in used trucks because some of those buyers might be the people that are being affected by the CDL enforcement rules. And those might have been the buyers for the used truck. So there's a temporary moment there.

二手卡車的銷售量略有下降，因為部分買家可能是受到 CDL 執法規則影響的人。這些人很可能就是那輛二手卡車的買家。所以，這只是暫時的。

And also, I think we've still seen the finishing up of rationalization of fleets that we're going to be in the business and make it through this cycle versus those that are leaving the business. So all of that kind of put in, you would expect to see the number of delinquencies diminish as the year progresses as fleet profitability has come up and then use truck pricing follow that.

而且，我認為我們已經看到，那些能夠繼續經營並度過這個週期的公司，與那些退出這個行業的公司相比，正在逐步完成車隊合理化。因此，考慮到所有這些因素，隨著時間的推移，你會預期違約數量會減少，因為車隊盈利能力提高了，然後使用卡車定價也會隨之提高。

And just so I understand your point about use being more valuable. Is that a sort of comment around EPA27 and big increases in new truck prices coming next year?

我只是想確認一下，您說的使用價值更高。這是在暗示 EPA27 法規以及明年新卡車價格將大幅上漲嗎？

Exactly. Yes, that's part of the same part of it.

確切地。是的，那是同一部分的組成部分。

We saw a 4% increase in used truck values year-over-year, and we expect that to continue to increase for that reason.

我們看到二手卡車的價格年增了 4%，而且我們預計出於這個原因，價格還會繼續上漲。

Thank you guys appreciate it.

謝謝大家，感激不盡。

You bet take.

當然可以。

Chad Dillard, Sanford C Bernstein & Co LLC.

Chad Dillard，Sanford C Bernstein & Co LLC。

I want to spend some time on parts gross margins. So first of all, fourth quarter, what was it? And then how do you think about that scaling in '26 as that that business reaccelerates?

我想花點時間研究一下零件的毛利率。首先，第四季度，那是什麼情況？那麼，隨著業務在 2026 年重新加速發展，您如何看待這種規模化發展？

Yeah Chad. This is Kevin. So fourth quarter was 29.5%. And as I mentioned, in a soft parts market, I'd say that's -- it's pretty good results. And again, team is doing a great job providing excellent customer service, getting right parts at the right place, right time.

是的，查德。這是凱文。所以第四季是 29.5%。正如我之前提到的，在軟性零件市場，我認為這——這已經是非常不錯的成績了。再次強調，團隊在提供優質客戶服務方面做得非常出色，並且能夠在正確的時間將正確的零件送到正確的地點。

And so in a soft parts market, customers are really focused on required maintenance. And so we were able to address that shift, and what we're forecasting going forward is kind of a rebalancing of that mix as the market improves and a higher take on proprietary parts.

因此，在零件市場中，客戶真正關注的是必要的維護。因此，我們能夠應對這種轉變，我們預測，隨著市場好轉，這種組合將會發生某種程度的重新平衡，專有零件的需求也會增加。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just really quickly on inventories. Can you just give us an update on where PACCAR is versus the market? And then just in terms of truck pricing, how are you thinking about that evolving as you go through '26?

知道了。那很有幫助。然後快速盤點庫存。能否簡單介紹一下 PACCAR 目前在市場上的狀況？那麼就卡車定價而言，您認為到 2026 年卡車定價會如何變化？

Sure. If we look at the industry inventory, I think the industry inventory for Class 8 is 3.2 months and PACCAR is at 2.2 months. So we feel like we're in an optimal spot on our inventory positioning. And that at least for us, we would expect build registrations to be fairly aligned this year. So that gives us a good opportunity as well.

當然。如果我們看一下產業庫存，我認為 8 級卡車的產業庫存是 3.2 個月，而 PACCAR 的庫存是 2.2 個月。因此，我們感覺我們的庫存佈局處於最佳狀態。至少對我們來說，我們預計今年的建築註冊量將相當一致。所以這也給了我們一個很好的機會。

And we're starting to see that, like we're starting to see dealers come in with stock orders. And as we mentioned previously, body builders want to have their spots put in. So that's the way we see inventory and its relationship to our build.

我們開始看到這種情況，例如我們開始看到經銷商帶著庫存訂單來訂購。正如我們之前提到的，健美運動員希望在身上打上標記。這就是我們看待庫存及其與生產之間的關係的方式。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Jamie Cook, Truist Securities Inc

Jamie Cook，Truist Securities Inc.

Hi, good morning and nice quarter. I guess, my first question, understanding your retail sales forecast for North America, and now that we have more clarity on EPA 2027. Obviously, markets appear better versus where we were.

您好，早安，祝您愉快。我想，我的第一個問題是，了解您對北美零售銷售的預測，以及現在我們對 EPA 2027 有了更清晰的了解。顯然，目前的市場狀況比之前好得多。

But Preston, to what degree are you concerned the supply chain can't ramp if things really do improve? And where would those bottlenecks be? And how are you handling that?

但是普雷斯頓，如果情況真的好轉，你對供應鏈無法迅速恢復運作的擔憂程度有多大？那麼，這些瓶頸會在哪裡呢？你是如何應對的？

And then my second question, which is my guess is you won't answer, but I'm going to try, the revenues were better, deliveries were better, your gross margins were in line with your forecast, but you said it was hurt by your shift in manufacturing local for local. Is there any way you'll quantify what that impact was in the fourth quarter? Thank you.

我的第二個問題，我猜你不會回答，但我還是要試一試：收入更好了，交付也更好了，毛利率也符合你的預期，但你說由於你轉向本地生產，導致業績受到影響。你們有什麼辦法量化這種影響在第四季的具體情況嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. So your second question, you're right. You understand it. It was significant. I'm not going to give you a number because there's a lot of gray in that number. So I'd be taking a number that has multiple inputs to it. Say that it was a significant impact to us, and it is one that we don't expect to carry forward as we look into the future quarters. from a bottlenecks of supplier standpoint?

是的。所以你的第二個問題，你答對了。你明白的。這意義重大。我不會給你一個具體的數字，因為這個數字有很多灰色地帶。所以，我要取一個有多個輸入值的數字。假設這對我們來說影響重大，但我們預計這種影響不會延續到未來幾季。從供應商瓶頸的角度來看呢？

And does that have an impact on the year. I feel like that's something that our customers are going to need to think about. We have great relationships with our suppliers. We've given them our forecast, and we've given them that cadence of sequential growth and acceleration through the year and our expectations of our build.

那會對這一年產生影響嗎？我覺得這是我們客戶需要考慮的問題。我們與供應商保持良好的合作關係。我們已經向他們提供了我們的預測，也向他們提供了全年循序漸進的成長和加速的節奏，以及我們對建設的預期。

So they're aware of it. That helps them, right? So having a good plan helps them. But it does mean that if we get into a third, fourth quarter, where build is significantly higher than it puts stress on their systems as well. And we've been through the cycle, you just articulated it.

所以他們知道這件事。那對他們有幫助，對吧？所以製定一個好的計劃對他們很有幫助。但這意味著，如果進入第三、第四季度，建設量顯著增加，也會對他們的系統造成壓力。我們已經經歷過這個週期了，你剛才把它闡述得很清楚。

There comes a point where if the ramp is too significant, it becomes bounded. We don't see that yet, but we don't rule out that that could happen in the second half of the year as well. And if that's what happens, then that's typically when price accelerates.

當斜坡幅度過大時，就會出現邊界效應。我們目前還沒有看到這種情況，但我們也不排除今年下半年出現這種情況的可能性。如果這種情況發生，那麼價格通常就會加速上漲。

Okay. Great. Thank you look forward to seeing you in February.

好的。偉大的。謝謝，期待二月見到你。

Yeah. I look forward to seeing you too.

是的。我也很期待見到你。

Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.

Stephen Volkmann，傑富瑞集團。

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to stick with the 27 NOx thing. Have you guys communicated to your customers, and maybe even if you're willing to, to us, what the price increase associated with that will be?

你好。感謝您回答這個問題。我原本想堅持使用 27 NOx 這個方案。你們有沒有跟客戶溝通過，或願意的話，也跟我們溝通一下，相關的價格上漲幅度是多少？

We've talked in generalities. And the reason we speak to generalities, just because I think the EPA has done a very good job of trying to let people know there would be 35 milligrams, but they also have stated that they're looking at useful life and warranty and what those impacts would be on cost. So those could still be subject to change.

我們只是泛泛而談。我們之所以泛泛而談，是因為我認為美國環保署在讓人們知道每瓶含氯量為 35 毫克方面做得非常好，但他們也表示，他們正在考慮產品的使用壽命和保固期，以及這些因素會對成本產生什麼影響。所以這些內容仍有可能改變。

In general, I think the best number is to use like a plus or minus on $10,000. That's what we've been talking to customers about. It gives them a range to think about. so they can kind of plan in with a new technology and a $10,000 increase does it mean they want to shift their buying pattern around?

總的來說，我認為最好的數字是使用 10,000 美元的加號或減號。這就是我們一直在和客戶討論的內容。這給了他們一個思考的範圍。所以他們可以據此進行規劃。如果採用新技術，預算增加 1 萬美元，這是否意味著他們想要改變購買模式？

Great. That's helpful. And then this is -- almost coming back to Jamie's question. But -- so presumably, there'll be some sort of a prebuy as we get toward the end of the year. I think you guys have been in that camp for a while now.

偉大的。那很有幫助。然後，這幾乎又回到了傑米的問題上。但是——所以可以推測，隨著年底臨近，將會出現某種形式的預購活動。我認為你們一直都屬於這個陣營。

But if the demand were stronger, would you be willing to flex up to meet it? Or does the fact that 27 probably sort of comes back down fairly quickly post the change mean that it's sort of your appetite for building a lot in the second half is more limited?

但如果需求更強勁，你是否願意調整產能來滿足它？或者說，27 這個數字在變化後可能會很快回落，這是否意味著你在下半年大量建隊的意願比較有限？

We serve our customers. And so if our customers are asking us for trucks, we do everything in our power to get them trucks.

我們為顧客服務。因此，如果我們的客戶向我們索取卡車，我們會盡一切努力為他們提供卡車。

Okay. Great. Thank you.

好的。偉大的。謝謝。

Kyle Menges, Citi Infrastructure Investments LLC

Kyle Menges，花旗基礎設施投資有限責任公司

Thank you. I wanted to follow-up on the last question. I wanted to follow up on the last question. I guess, more -- not as much on the customer side, but just from the standpoint of the potential of dealers stocking up, you may be willing to carry a little bit more inventory in the 2027.

謝謝。我想就最後一個問題再補充一點。我想就上一個問題再補充一點。我想，更多——不是從客戶的角度來看，而是從經銷商可能囤貨的角度來看，你可能願意在 2027 年多儲備一些庫存。

You made a comment that you're seeing dealers ordering stock trucks right now. So it would be helpful to just hear about how you're thinking of the potential for dealer stocking, and I guess, risk of an inventory overhang exiting 2026?

你曾說過，你看到經銷商現在正在訂購庫存卡車。所以，如果您能聽聽您如何看待經銷商的庫存潛力，以及到 2026 年底可能出現的庫存過剩風險，那就太好了？

Well, I mean, I think the statement of an inventory overhang has a negative connotation to it to me. And I'm not sure that if they had inventory going into 2027, that would be necessarily too big of a problem. I think that it's a little early to predict what the fourth quarter is going to look like because as I said, we have to see what the rules end up being from the EPA.

嗯，我的意思是，我覺得「庫存過剩」這個說法對我來說帶有負面意義。我不確定如果他們到 2027 年仍有庫存，那是否會是個太大的問題。我認為現在預測第四季度的情況還為時過早，因為正如我所說，我們必須看看美國環保署最終會出台什麼規則。

I do think there will be an acceleration through the year. That seems obviously starting to happen to me. How big that is and how significant it is at the year-end, I think that's a lot of speculation that we can't really get to yet.

我認為今年增速會加快。這種情況似乎已經開始發生在我身上了。至於規模有多大，以及對年底的影響有多大，我認為這很多都只是猜測，我們現在還無法真正得出結論。

Got it. And then just on the Parts guidance, the 4% to 8% and starting the first quarter at plus 3%, just how much visibility do you have to that ramp going from three to one, I guess, plus 7% or 8% as we move throughout 2026? And just what are the key drivers of that acceleration in growth?

知道了。然後，就零件業務的預期而言，4%到8%，第一季成長3%，那麼，隨著我們推進到2026年，從3%到1%，再到7%或8%的成長，你們對這一成長有多大的可見性？那麼，推動成長加速的關鍵因素究竟是什麼？

Kyle, the key drivers are just the anticipated demand as we go through the year with the market. We've had, if you look at last year, it was a relatively soft market throughout the year. And so just with customers accelerating, putting trucks back into service. We just were anticipating kind of a steady growth as we go through the year.

Kyle，關鍵驅動因素就是我們全年對市場的預期需求。回顧去年，我們發現全年市場都相對疲軟。因此，隨著客戶加快步伐，卡車也重新投入使用。我們原本預期今年會維持穩定成長。

The other thing to maybe think of as tariffs should be a favorability in the parts side just like there on the truck side as you look at the year.

另一個需要考慮的因素是關稅，就像卡車方面一樣，應該在零件方面給予優惠，就像你從年份的角度來看待這個問題一樣。

That's right. Helpful. Thank you, guys.

這是正確的。很有幫助。謝謝大家。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan Chase & Co.

塔米·扎卡里亞，摩根大通公司

Hey. Good morning. thank you so much. First question is on the tariff-related surcharges or price increases you talked about last year. Are you rolling back some of those price increases or surcharges given that Section 232 eases some of the tariff cost burdens for you now?

嘿。早安.非常感謝。第一個問題是關於您去年提到的與關稅相關的附加費或價格上漲。鑑於第 232 條款目前減輕了您的一些關稅成本負擔，您是否正在取消一些價格上漲或附加費？

Yes, Tami, we are. We've got rid of tariff surcharges for 2026. So they sit in there in terms of what our actuals are because remember, IEPA is still sitting out there as a tariff cost for everyone that needs to be clarified still, but we are seeing some price slide in Q1 expectation, but more than offset by cost. So that gives us a positive in price cost.

是的，塔米，我們是。我們已經取消了2026年的關稅附加費。所以，它們會影響我們的實際情況，因為別忘了，IEPA 仍然是每個人需要支付的關稅成本，這還需要進一步澄清，但我們看到第一季的價格預期有所下降，但成本下降幅度超過了預期。這樣一來，價格成本就變成正數了。

Understood. That's super helpful. And as a follow-up, I wanted to understand the first quarter gross margin guide a little better. Did you see at any point in the fourth quarter the gross margin rate being in that 12.5% to 13% range, meaning, is it fair to assume that you exited 4Q at a 12.5% to 13% range, and that's what you're expecting for the full quarter in the first quarter, given deliveries would be similar?

明白了。這太有幫助了。此外，我還想進一步了解第一季的毛利率預期。您在第四季是否看到毛利率達到 12.5% 至 13% 的區間？也就是說，是否可以合理地假設您在第四季度末的毛利率為 12.5% 至 13%，並且考慮到第一季的交付量與第四季度類似，您預計第一季的毛利率也將達到這個區間？

Yeah. I think what you're insinuating is are we seeing sequential improvement in margin by month, and we don't break it out that way, but in general, yes, we're seeing improvement in margin as we go sequentially even within quarters.

是的。我認為你的意思是說，我們是否看到利潤率按月逐週提高，雖然我們沒有這樣細分，但總的來說，是的，我們看到利潤率逐週提高，甚至在季度內也是如此。

Understood. Thank you.

明白了。謝謝。

Jeff Kauffman, Vertical Research Partners LLC

Jeff Kauffman，Vertical Research Partners LLC

Thank you very much and congratulations. I just wanted to think a little bit about -- I just wanted to think a little bit about margin opportunity or market share opportunity in 2026. We've been speaking with some trucking companies that have said even now, they still can't really put in orders for freightliners or internationals because post the 232 tariffs, they're not really certain what those prices are.

非常感謝，也恭喜你。我只是想稍微思考一下——我只是想稍微思考一下2026年的利潤機會或市佔率機會。我們與一些貨運公司交談過，他們表示即使現在，他們仍然無法真正訂購貨運公司或國際公司的卡車，因為在 232 號關稅之後，他們不太確定這些卡車的價格是多少。

So you talked about the shift post 232 and how that's an advantage for you. What are your customers telling you about their ability to those that have, say, more than one nameplate, more than just Kenworth and Peterbilt on their fleet, because we've seen the uptick in truck purchasing.

所以你談到了第 232 號崗位的輪換，以及這對你來說是一個優勢。您的客戶告訴您，對於那些擁有不只一個品牌（例如，車隊中不只 Kenworth 和 Peterbilt）的客戶來說，他們的購買能力如何？因為我們已經看到卡車購買量增加。

And to your point, that could be a combination of, okay, we got EPA clarity, we got 232 clarity on our domestic produced trucks, but our understanding is, your customers are still having trouble putting in orders for their non-U.S.-built trucks post 232. So could there be a bigger opportunity for market share for you? And then when will you get some more certainty on that?

正如您所說，這可能是多種因素共同作用的結果，例如，我們獲得了 EPA 的明確規定，我們獲得了 232 條款對我們國產卡車的明確規定，但我們了解到，您的客戶在 232 條款生效後，仍然難以訂購非美國製造的卡車。那麼，您是否還有更大的市佔率提昇機會呢？那麼，你什麼時候才能對此有更確切的答案呢？

Yeah. I think you must be talking to the same people we're talking to, because I think they would like to have that clarity as well in terms of what pricing is going to be from some of our competitors, and that will certainly find its way into the market in the coming months.

是的。我認為你們肯定是在和同一批人交談，因為我認為他們也希望了解一些競爭對手的定價策略，而這些策略肯定會在未來幾個月內公佈在市場上。

We've been able to give them clarity from our standpoint, I think it's helpful. And so we feel like we should be able to meet their demand when they're ready to make those decisions, which should be good for us through the year, both, I think, from a market share standpoint and a margin standpoint.

我們已經能夠從我們的角度為他們闡明情況，我認為這很有幫助。因此，我們覺得當他們準備好做出這些決定時，我們應該能夠滿足他們的需求，我認為這對我們全年的發展都是有利的，無論從市場份額還是利潤率的角度來看都是如此。

So just to follow up on that. The increased confidence you're seeing with their customers, and I know ACT Research just put the pre-buy back into their numbers. How much of this do you feel is increased confidence in the environment versus maybe just increased clarity on what's going on with EPA?

所以，我來補充一下。客戶的信心日益增強，我知道 ACT Research 剛剛將預購數據重新納入他們的統計中。您認為這其中有多少是人們對環境信心的增強，又有多少只是對美國環保署（EPA）運作情況的更清晰了解？

Yeah. , I think it's both. I think that the clarity is helpful, but without the confidence in the freight markets without the rate increases and without increased profitability for the carriers, the 40% of the truckload carriers being in the market, they need those things in order to be more than just tariff and regulatory clarity.

是的，我認為兩者都是。我認為這種清晰度是有幫助的，但如果沒有貨運市場的信心，沒有費率上漲，承運商的盈利能力沒有提高，那麼市場上 40% 的整車運輸公司就需要這些，而不僅僅是關稅和監管方面的清晰度。

So I do think it's a both thing. And I think that's where we're at the point where we have tariff clarity. We have regulatory clarity happening, but I think we're just in the beginning parts of having the truckload carrier profitability return. So that has to continue to evolve, which will be positive for the year when that happens.

所以我認為兩者兼具。我認為，目前我們已經對關稅問題有了清楚的認知。監管政策正在明朗化，但我認為我們才剛開始看到整車運輸獲利能力的恢復。所以這種情況必須繼續發展，而當這種情況發生時，對今年來說將是件好事。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Yeah. You bet. Thank you. See you soon.

是的。當然。謝謝。再見。

Michael Feniger, Bofa.

Michael Feniger，Bofa。

Yes, hey guys, thanks for squeezing me in. I appreciate it.

是的，嘿，各位，謝謝你們擠出時間讓我來。謝謝。

Yeah. You bet. You guys called.

是的。當然。你們打來的電話。

We appreciate it. You guys touched on the price versus cost trending more favorably in Q1 versus Q4, it's mostly on the cost side, you commented on pricing is a little soft in Q1. You pointed out how competitors have not fully taken into tariff cost to market. We're hearing commentary out there on discounts. How do you see pricing in Q1 to beyond Q1 kind of playing out through the year as we start to get closer to that prebuy?

我們很感激。你們提到第一季的價格與成本走勢比第四季更有利，這主要是成本的問題，你們也提到第一季的定價有點疲軟。您指出競爭對手尚未將關稅成本充分計入市場。我們聽到了一些關於折扣的評論。您認為從第一季到之後，隨著預購期的臨近，全年的定價走勢會如何？

Well, I think that's what's going to be telling is once there's price clarity from everybody in the market and the tariffs are affected into things, it's going to be -- and there will be some costs that come along, and I think that's where price will start to become a favorable factor through the year.

我認為，一旦市場上的價格明朗化，關稅也受到影響，情況就會有所不同——當然，隨之而來的是一些成本，我認為價格將在今年成為一個有利因素。

All right. And when we think, is there a rule of thumb we should think about your cost of goods sold? How much is raw materials, what we should be watching, what the lag is there?

好的。那麼，當我們思考時，是否有經驗法則讓我們考慮銷售成本呢？原料成本是多少？我們該關注什麼？存在多大的滯後？

Yeah. This is Brice. Our -- the material in our product is the vast majority. It's 80%, 85%. So labor and overhead are the remainder. So it materials mean a lot in our pricing.

是的。這是布萊斯。我們的－我們產品中的材料佔絕大部分。是 80%，85%。因此，剩餘部分為人工成本和管理費用。所以材料對我們的定價影響很大。

Fair enough. And look, you guys have an Analyst Day in a few weeks. I remember at the 2022 Investor Day, there was just a lot of focus from investors if PACCAR can drive higher margin cycle over cycle, and you clearly delivered that in 2023 with strong profitability.

很公平。還有，你們幾週後就要舉行分析師日了。我記得在 2022 年的投資者日上，投資者們非常關注 PACCAR 能否實現逐年提高利潤率，而你們在 2023 年透過強勁的盈利能力顯然做到了這一點。

Now as we're coming off this Investor Day in a few weeks, early innings of this -- we're hoping the new truck cycle, do you think we can see higher cycle-over-cycle profitability that continue? What are some of the factors we should be thinking about as we're assessing the profitability as we're moving to this next recovering truck cycle? Thanks a lot.

現在，距離我們投資者日還有幾週時間，這只是新一輪卡車週期的早期階段——我們希望新一輪卡車週期能夠持續下去，您認為我們能否看到更高的周期性盈利能力？在評估下一個卡車運輸業復甦週期中的獲利能力時，我們應該考慮哪些因素？多謝。

Yeah. Thanks for the commentary first of all, and then the question because the commentary is great. I think it's absolutely objectively true, cycle-over-cycle performance that teams have delivered is really significant and outstanding. We'll share more of that in the Investor Day.

是的。首先感謝您的評論，其次感謝您的提問，因為評論真的很精彩。我認為這是絕對客觀的，團隊在每個週期中所取得的成績確實非常顯著且出色。我們將在投資者日上分享更多相關資訊。

And then as we look to the future, we feel great about the opportunities in front of us. It's not just trucks and it's not just parts, it's not just financial services, but we think there's other new opportunities coming towards us in terms of how we support our customers with advanced transportation solutions, data, connectivity and the interplay of all of those.

展望未來，我們對眼前的機會感到非常樂觀。不僅僅是卡車，不僅僅是零件，不僅僅是金融服務，我們認為，在如何透過先進的運輸解決方案、數據、連接以及所有這些的相互作用來支持我們的客戶方面，還有其他新的機會向我們走來。

So those are all positive for the business looking forward. So we feel great about not just this year but the future and look forward to seeing many of you in Denton.

所以這些對公司未來的發展都是好消息。因此，我們不僅對今年充滿信心，也對未來充滿信心，期待在丹頓見到你們中的許多人。

There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有其他補充說明嗎？

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call, and we look forward to the upcoming Analyst Day on February 10. Please keep an eye on the Paccar Investor relations page for a link to the webcast. Thanks again.

感謝各位參加本次電話會議，我們期待2月10日即將舉行的分析師日活動。請密切關注帕卡投資者關係頁面，以獲取網路直播連結。再次感謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes Paccar 's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，帕卡公司的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。