帕卡 (PCAR) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time.

早安，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）今天的通話正在錄音，如果有人有異議，請立即掛斷電話。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我想介紹 PACCAR 投資者關係總監 Ken Hastings 先生。黑斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Kevin Baney, Executive Vice President; and Brice Poplawski, Senior Vice President and CFO.

早安.我們歡迎透過電話和網路廣播收聽的聽眾。我叫肯‧黑斯廷斯 (Ken Hastings)，是 PACCAR 的投資人關係總監。今天早上與我一起出席的還有執行長 Preston Feight、執行副總裁 Kevin Baney 和資深副總裁兼財務長 Brice Poplawski。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings at the Investor Relations page at paccar.com.

與先前的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有線上的媒體成員都以只聽模式參與。今天提供的某些資訊具有前瞻性，涉及可能影響預期結果的風險和不確定性。欲了解更多信息，請參閱 paccar.com 投資者關係頁面上的 SEC 文件。

I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

現在我想介紹普雷斯頓費特。

Okay. Thank you, Ken, and good morning, everyone. Kevin, Brice, Ken and I will update you on our good third-quarter financial results and business highlights. I'd like to start by thanking our wonderful employees who deliver PACCAR's high-quality trucks and transportation solutions to our customers all around the world. And I'm especially appreciative of their efforts in these dynamic market conditions.

好的。謝謝你，肯，大家早安。凱文、布萊斯、肯和我將向您通報我們第三季良好的財務業績和業務亮點。首先，我要感謝我們優秀的員工，他們為世界各地的客戶提供 PACCAR 的高品質卡車和運輸解決方案。我特別感謝他們在這種動態的市場條件下所做的努力。

PACCAR delivered good revenues and net income in the third quarter of 2025. Peterbilt, Kenworth and DAF trucks contributed to the good results. PACCAR Parts and PACCAR Financial Services continued to deliver excellent performance and strong profits. PACCAR achieved revenues of $6.7 billion and net income of $590 million. PACCAR Parts achieved record quarterly revenues of $1.72 billion and excellent quarterly pretax income of $410 million.

PACCAR 在 2025 年第三季實現了良好的收入和淨收入。Peterbilt、Kenworth 和 DAF 卡車為良好的業績做出了貢獻。PACCAR Parts 和 PACCAR Financial Services 持續保持優異的業績和強勁的利潤。PACCAR 實現營收 67 億美元，淨收入 5.9 億美元。PACCAR Parts 實現了創紀錄的 17.2 億美元季度營收和 4.1 億美元的優異季度稅前收入。

Parts revenue grew 4% in the quarter compared to the same period last year. PACCAR Financial also had a very good quarter, achieving pretax income of $126 million. We estimate this year's US and Canadian Class 8 market to be in a range of 230,000 to 245,000 trucks and next year to be in a range of 230,000 to 270,000. Customer demand in the less than truckload and vocational segments is good. The truckload market continues to have uncertainty. Next year's US and Canadian truck market could be higher than this year as we realize clarity around tariffs, emissions policy and potential improvements in the freight market.

本季零件收入與去年同期相比成長了 4%。PACCAR Financial 本季表現也非常好，實現稅前收入 1.26 億美元。我們預計今年美國和加拿大 8 級卡車市場銷量將在 23 萬至 24.5 萬輛之間，明年將達到 23 萬至 27 萬輛。零擔運輸和職業運輸領域的客戶需求良好。整車運輸市場仍存在不確定性。隨著我們意識到關稅、排放政策和貨運市場的潛在改善將更加明確，明年美國和加拿大的卡車市場可能會比今年表現更好。

In Europe, the DAF XF truck was honored as the Fleet Truck of the Year in the UK due to its best-in-class fuel efficiency and driver comfort. We project this year's European above 16-tonne market to be in a range of 275,000 to 295,000 vehicles. The 2026 market is expected to be in the range of 270,000 to 300,000. We estimate this year's South American above 16-tonne truck market to be in the range of 95,000 to 105,000 vehicles and in a similar range next year.

在歐洲，DAF XF 卡車憑藉其一流的燃油效率和駕駛舒適度被評為英國年度車隊卡車。我們預計今年歐洲 16 噸以上汽車市場銷量將在 275,000 至 295,000 輛之間。預計2026年的市場規模將在27萬至30萬之間。我們估計今年南美16噸以上卡車市場銷量將在95,000至105,000輛之間，明年的銷量也將保持類似的水平。

PACCAR's premium trucks are performing well for customers in South America, especially in the important Brazilian market. PACCAR delivered 31,900 trucks during the third quarter and anticipate delivering around 32,000 in the fourth quarter. More production days in Europe will be offset by fewer production days due to normal holidays in North America.

佩卡的高端卡車在南美客戶中表現良好，尤其是在重要的巴西市場。PACCAR 在第三季交付了 31,900 輛卡車，預計第四季交付約 32,000 輛。由於北美正常假期，歐洲的生產天數增加，生產天數減少。

PACCAR's Truck, Parts and other gross margins were 12.5% in the third quarter. Margins were affected by the August steel and aluminum tariff increases and the tariff costs on trucks that were built in the United States. Looking ahead, fourth-quarter margins could be around 12% as tariffs peak in October. However, the new Section 232 on medium and heavy trucks that will become effective November 1 will be good for PACCAR's customers as it will reduce tariff costs and bring clarity to the market.

佩卡第三季卡車、零件和其他產品的毛利率為 12.5%。利潤率受到 8 月鋼鐵和鋁關稅上調以及美國製造卡車關稅成本的影響。展望未來，隨著10月份關稅達到峰值，第四季的利潤率可能達到12%左右。然而，將於 11 月 1 日生效的有關中型和重型卡車的新第 232 條將對 PACCAR 的客戶有利，因為它將降低關稅成本並使市場更加清晰。

PACCAR is proud to produce over 90% of its US sold trucks in Texas, Ohio, and Washington. We look forward to improving market conditions, tariff costs will begin to reduce as we head towards the end of the year, and PACCAR's continued strong performance.

PACCAR 很自豪地表示，其在美國銷售的卡車中有 90% 以上都是在德克薩斯州、俄亥俄州和華盛頓州生產的。我們期待市場狀況改善，隨著年底臨近，關稅成本將開始降低，並且 PACCAR 將繼續保持強勁表現。

Kevin Baney will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial Services, and other business highlights. Kevin?

凱文·巴尼 (Kevin Baney) 現在將提供有關 PACCAR 零件、PACCAR 金融服務和其他業務亮點的最新資訊。凱文？

Thank you, Preston. PACCAR Parts achieved gross margins of 29.5% and record third-quarter revenue of $1.72 billion. Third-quarter Parts sales grew by a healthy 4% compared to the same period last year, with similar growth expected in the fourth quarter. PACCAR Parts continues to grow by investing in capacity and services. PACCAR Parts is focused on delivering the right part to the right place at the right time to provide industry-leading support for our customers.

謝謝你，普雷斯頓。PACCAR Parts 的毛利率達到 29.5%，第三季營收達到創紀錄的 17.2 億美元。第三季與去年同期相比，零件銷售額成長了 4%，預計第四季也將實現類似的成長。PACCAR Parts 透過投資產能和服務繼續發展。PACCAR Parts 致力於在正確的時間將正確的零件運送到正確的地點，為我們的客戶提供領先業界的支援。

PACCAR Parts will open a new 180,000 square foot parts distribution center in Calgary next year to bring faster delivery times to dealers and customers in the region. PACCAR will be opening a new engine remanufacturing center in Columbus, Mississippi next year to provide our customers with high-quality rebuilt engines. PACCAR Financial Services pretax income was a robust $126 million, 18% growth over the $107 million reported a year earlier. This reflects the high-quality portfolio and improving used truck results.

PACCAR Parts 將於明年在卡加利開設一個佔地 180,000 平方英尺的新零件配送中心，為該地區的經銷商和客戶提供更快的交貨時間。PACCAR 將於明年在密西西比州哥倫布市開設一個新的引擎再製造中心，為我們的客戶提供高品質的重建引擎。PACCAR 金融服務稅前收入達到 1.26 億美元，比去年同期的 1.07 億美元成長了 18%。這反映了高品質的產品組合和二手卡車業績的不斷提高。

PACCAR Financial operates 13 used truck centers around the world to support the sale of premium Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF used trucks. PACCAR is building another used truck center in Warsaw, Poland, which will open this year. PACCAR used trucks sell at a premium.

PACCAR Financial 在全球經營 13 個二手卡車中心，以支援優質 Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 二手卡車的銷售。PACCAR 正在波蘭華沙建造另一個二手卡車中心，將於今年開幕。PACCAR 二手卡車以高價出售。

Similar to PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial provides steady foundational profitability during all phases of the business cycle. This year's capital expenditures are projected to be between $750 million and $775 million, and research and development expenses will be $450 million to $465 million.

與 PACCAR Parts 類似，PACCAR Financial 在商業週期的所有階段提供穩定的基礎獲利能力。今年的資本支出預計在7.5億美元至7.75億美元之間，研發支出為4.5億美元至4.65億美元。

Next year, we estimate the company will invest $725 million to $775 million in capital projects and $450 million to $500 million in research and development expenses. Key technology and innovation investments include next-generation clean diesel and alternative powertrains, advanced driver assistance systems, and integrated connected vehicle services. PACCAR is also investing in its truck and engine factories to support long-term growth as well as our customers and dealers success.

我們預計該公司明年將在資本項目上投資 7.25 億至 7.75 億美元，在研發費用上投資 4.5 億至 5 億美元。關鍵技術和創新投資包括下一代清潔柴油和替代動力系統、先進的駕駛輔助系統和整合連網汽車服務。PACCAR 也投資其卡車和引擎工廠，以支持長期成長以及我們的客戶和經銷商的成功。

PACCAR's industry-leading trucks, expanding parts business, best-in-class financial services and advanced technology strategy position the company for an excellent future. We are pleased to answer your questions.

PACCAR 業界領先的卡車、不斷擴大的零件業務、一流的金融服務和先進的技術策略為該公司帶來了美好的未來。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

（操作員指示）Rob Wertheimer，Melius Research。

I had a couple of questions around 232. I guess that's no surprise. But I wonder if you're able to give any thoughts on whether it improves your competitive position or not, given production of some of your competitors, but then given perhaps they have exemptions? And then how and when does the rebate flow through financials?

我對 232 有幾個疑問。我想這並不奇怪。但我想知道，考慮到您的一些競爭對手的生產情況，以及他們是否有豁免，您是否能夠考慮這是否會提高您的競爭地位？那麼返利如何以及何時流入財務部門？

Rob, I kind of thought we might hear some questions around 232. And as you're aware, it came out Friday afternoon, late afternoon here, and we've been spending a lot of time with it. We said in the commentary that 232 will be good for our customers, PACCAR's customers. It would be good for the fact that we manufacture our trucks in Texas, Ohio, and Washington. And it should improve our competitive position as we look forward into next year.

羅布，我以為我們可能會聽到一些有關 232 的問題。如你所知，它是在星期五下午，也就是傍晚時分發布的，我們花了很多時間在它上面。我們在評論中說過，232 對我們的客戶，即 PACCAR 的客戶來說是件好事。我們在德克薩斯州、俄亥俄州和華盛頓州生產卡車，這很好。展望明年，這應該會提高我們的競爭地位。

It will take a little bit of time for it to fully implement. So as we shared, like tariffs are really peaking for us in the fourth quarter -- in October of the fourth quarter. And then as 232 implements November 1, there's kind of a qualifying period for the components that are involved in it. So it will become gradually more and more effective throughout the quarter. And probably by the time we get to the first part of the year, we should have great stability around it. So all feels very good and should help our competitive position.

它的完全實施還需要一點時間。正如我們所分享的，關稅在第四季度（即第四季的十月份）達到頂峰。然後，隨著 232 於 11 月 1 日實施，其中涉及的組件將有資格審查期。因此它將在整個季度內逐漸變得越來越有效。或許到今年上半年，我們就能夠獲得很大的穩定性。所以一切都感覺很好，應該有助於我們保持競爭地位。

That's helpful. And then how do you think about pricing? There's been a lot of uncertainty. I don't think you immediately hit your customers with some of the tariff and price increases. Now that there's clarity, do price increases start to offset that in the new year? Or any commentary around that, and I'll stop.

這很有幫助。那麼您如何考慮定價呢？存在很多不確定性。我認為您不會立即向客戶徵收關稅和提高價格。現在情況已經明朗，那麼新年裡價格上漲是否會開始抵銷這項影響呢？或任何有關此的評論，我都會停止。

So as we think about it, it's a competitive world out there, and we don't operate alone in it. But we feel very good about the trucks that we're producing right now. The best trucks we've ever produced in our history, best fuel economy, best reliability, great engine performance. So we're happy with how that's going. And I think that our customers appreciate the stability in the market right now with how [missions] haven't changed in a while. So the trucks they're getting are moneymakers for them.

所以當我們思考這個問題時，就會發現這是一個競爭激烈的世界，我們並不是孤軍奮戰。但我們對我們目前生產的卡車感到非常滿意。這是我們歷史上生產的最好的卡車，具有最佳的燃油經濟性、最佳的可靠性和出色的引擎性能。我們對目前的情況感到滿意。我認為我們的客戶很欣賞目前市場的穩定性，因為[使命]在一段時間內沒有改變。因此，他們購買的卡車就是他們的賺錢工具。

And as we kind of think about pricing through the year or next year, I think that there will be some opportunities for us as the year progresses. We said that the LTL market, less-than-truckload market, remains good, vocational market remains good. And then I think the truckload sector has been in a tough spot for, gosh, 30 months plus. And I think that they are using the equipment. So that bodes well for the fact that they'll get back under replacement cycles. And as we get back under replacement cycles, it's going to create demand in the market, which is obviously good for pricing.

當我們考慮今年或明年的定價時，我認為隨著時間的推移，我們將有一些機會。我們說零擔市場、零擔貨運市場依然良好，職業貨運市場依然良好。然後我認為卡車運輸業已經處於困境長達 30 個多月了。我認為他們正在使用該設備。所以這預示著它們將重新回到更換週期。隨著我們回到更換週期，它將在市場上創造需求，這顯然對定價有利。

David Raso, Evercore ISI.

David Raso，Evercore ISI。

I was curious, underpinning the North American growth outlook, I was just curious, you mentioned last quarter about some bonus depreciation order potential. Just curious, what are you hearing from the customer base to underpin that growth? I know you mentioned replacement demand and so forth. But just curious, the conversations that you're having when it comes to any sense of timing on when you think your orders will start to reflect the ability to grow in '26.

我很好奇，支撐北美成長前景，我只是好奇，你上個季度提到了一些獎金折舊訂單潛力。只是好奇，您從客戶群聽到了什麼來支撐這種成長？我知道您提到了替代需求等等。但只是好奇，當談到您認為您的訂單何時會開始反映 26 年的成長能力時，您所進行的對話是什麼。

Brice, why don't you offer some comments just on how that looks and then I'll come at that from a customer standpoint.

布萊斯，為什麼不就其外觀提出一些評論，然後我會從客戶的角度來談談這個問題。

Sure. So our price, we expect to continue to grow. We'll benefit from the effects of the tariff, of course, and our pricing competitiveness. And we believe that the Big Beautiful Bill, as we said in the third quarter, is going to provide incentives, and we have programs around encouraging our customers to take advantage of that 100% bonus depreciation. We think that will help spur some demand here in the fourth quarter.

當然。因此，我們預計價格將繼續上漲。當然，我們將受益於關稅的影響和我們的價格競爭力。正如我們在第三季度所說的那樣，我們相信「大美麗法案」將提供激勵措施，並且我們制定了計劃來鼓勵我們的客戶利用 100% 的獎金折舊。我們認為這將有助於刺激第四季的一些需求。

David, what we're getting from customers is, it's very mixed from a customer standpoint, right? If your operating conditions are positive, like in the vocational market or the LTL market, I think you're looking to take advantage of that, and those are customers that are ordering for the fourth quarter. I think there's obviously in the truckload sector, some people are still finding challenges there. And so they're less likely to take advantage of it now.

大衛，從客戶的角度來看，我們從客戶那裡得到的資訊非常複雜，對嗎？如果您的經營狀況良好，例如在職業市場或零擔市場，我認為您會希望利用這一點，而這些客戶正在為第四季度下訂單。我認為，在卡車運輸領域，有些人顯然仍然面臨挑戰。因此他們現在不太可能利用這一點。

But I think there's this growing sense of -- the momentum has to pick up in terms of truck orders because 2026, we'll have, as the law is written right now, a 35-milligram NOx standard. And so I think as trucks age, a 35-milligram Nox standards is in front of them, and now they have clarity of tariffs, there's a lot of reasons for people to start to think about allocating their capital to truck purchases.

但我認為，人們越來越意識到——卡車訂單的勢頭必須加快，因為到 2026 年，按照目前的法律規定，我們將實行 35 毫克的氮氧化物標準。因此我認為，隨著卡車的老化，35 毫克氮氧化物標準擺在他們面前，而且現在他們有了明確的關稅，人們有很多理由開始考慮將資金分配給卡車購買。

I wanted to follow up on the NOx issue. We know where the current situation is, but obviously, there's thought that it might be changed. Is there a deadline of some kind that you feel like the EPI has to communicate what exactly is happening for '27 when it comes to your supply chain and so forth? Just so we have a sense of timing. Because obviously the general assumption out there is they're not going to keep the current regulation going to 0.35.

我想跟進氮氧化物問題。我們知道目前的情況，但顯然有人認為情況可能會改變。您是否認為 EPI 必須設定一個截止日期來告知 27 年在供應鏈等方面的具體情況？這樣我們就能掌握時間了。因為顯然普遍的假設是他們不會將目前的規定維持在 0.35。

Yes. I don't know how that assumption's been formed by people. From our standpoint, we approached this in saying we are prepared for the 35-milligram NOx standard. We've got our teams working great on it. We have some new products that have come out in support of it. We're ready to go with it. That is the law, right? So our best approach is the law is the law until the law changes. As time passes, it makes it harder and harder to change the standard back to 200-milligram. Could happen, though, right?

是的。我不知道人們是如何形成這種假設的。從我們的角度來看，我們已經為 35 毫克 NOx 標準做好了準備。我們的團隊已為此做出了巨大努力。我們推出了一些新產品來支持它。我們已經準備好了。這就是法律，對吧？因此，我們最好的做法是，法律就是法律，直到法律改變為止。隨著時間的推移，將標準改回200毫克變得越來越困難。但有可能發生，對吧？

I think that we are very comfortable supporting a 200-milligram standard as well because we have products that are available today that can support the 200-milligram standard. We are all sensitive to the fact that, as more time passes, it puts additional burden on the supply base. But I think PACCAR is a great relationship with our suppliers, and we could handle that change. And if that's what's best for the industry, then we will align clearly with that.

我認為我們也非常樂意支援 200 毫克標準，因為我們目前有可以支援 200 毫克標準的產品。我們都意識到，隨著時間的推移，它會給供應基地帶來額外的負擔。但我認為 PACCAR 與我們的供應商關係很好，我們可以應付這種變化。如果這對行業最有利，那麼我們就會明確地遵循這一點。

And lastly, the cadence -- the clarification on the deliveries for the fourth quarter being roughly flat. Any color you can provide geographically sequentially would be great.

最後，節奏——第四季的交付量大致持平。只要您能按地理順序提供任何顏色就很好了。

Yes, I think we said in the commentary that fourth quarter in North America has more holidays in it. So you can kind of think of North American holidays being -- taking away some of the volume. Europe is less holidays. So you kind of see a shift there into European volume for fourth quarter. Somebody will ask this, but we're roughly 60%, 70% full in our order book for the fourth quarter. And so that kind of lets us kind of indicate how the quarter is filling in, and that's how we got to our similar quantities of deliveries for the fourth quarter.

是的，我認為我們在評論中說過北美第四季度有更多的假期。因此，你可以認為北美假期會減少部分客流量。歐洲假期較少。因此，您會看到第四季度銷售向歐洲轉移。有人會問這個問題，但我們第四季的訂單大約完成了 60% 到 70%。這樣，我們就可以知道本季的進展情況，這就是我們如何獲得第四季度類似的交付量。

Jeff Kauffman, Vertical Research Partners.

傑夫‧考夫曼，Vertical Research Partners。

I just want to focus on follow-up, I guess, on Rob's question on Section 232. I know everybody is still figuring this out. But in terms of the rebate amount, how is that going to compare when you're at full speed versus what you're costing out on the tariffs on parts and steel and aluminum. And you mentioned that that's going to ramp up through the fourth quarter. I guess, is that more a rebate to the customer that lowers the price to the customer? Is that a rebate to the company? How do those economics flow?

我想，我只是想關注 Rob 關於第 232 條問題的後續問題。我知道大家還在思考這個問題。但就退稅金額而言，全速前進時的退稅金額與零件、鋼鐵和鋁的關稅成本相比如何？您提到這一數字將在第四季上升。我猜，這是否更像是給客戶的回扣，從而降低客戶的價格？這是給公司的回扣嗎？這些經濟如何流動？

The way we can keep it in simple terms, so we don't turn this into a primer on the 232 because it's really complicated. But I would say that the 232 fact sheets out there, it's really good. I applaud Commerce and the White House who are putting out a clear document that's helpful in articulating what the game plan is and why the game plan is useful. To keep it at the highest level, I would say that as parts qualify into 232, that's when we expect we can apply the rebate to them, so parts coming out of Mexico, and it's deemed to be acceptable to be part of 232.

我們可以用簡單的術語來解釋它，所以我們不會把它變成 232 的入門書，因為它真的很複雜。但我想說的是，這 232 份事實說明書確實非常好。我讚揚商務部和白宮發布了一份清晰的文件，該文件有助於闡明遊戲計劃是什麼以及遊戲計劃為何有用。為了保持最高水平，我想說，只要零件符合 232 條件，我們就可以對它們應用折扣，因此來自墨西哥的零件被認為是 232 的一部分。

You let them know that. It become acceptable or not acceptable, and that's why you start to realize a reduced tariff cost as you head through the quarter. Obviously, the effective date is November 1, but it will take time for those parts to be qualified. And so that's why we indicated that it could take through until the first of the year to see the full benefit and impact of that.

你讓他們知道這一點。它變得可以接受或不可接受，這就是為什麼你在本季開始意識到關稅成本降低的原因。顯然，生效日期是 11 月 1 日，但這些部件的合格需要時間。因此，我們表示，可能要到明年年初才能看到其全部好處和影響。

And the first part of that question, when this is fully ramped up, how will that approximately net against the incremental tariff costs you're facing?

問題的第一部分是，當這一比例全面提升時，這將如何抵消您所面臨的增量關稅成本？

Yes, it's going to bring it down. We haven't netted out a specific number. And obviously, it's going to be something that we started the tariff discussion saying, hey, we're in this together with our customers, and our suppliers and our dealers, and that will be the same situation we face as we move forward. It will be hopefully some benefit to everybody in terms of our dealers, our customers, PACCAR, our suppliers or we should have kind of some positive momentum out of this. And the quantification of it remains to be seen.

是的，它會把它打下來。我們還沒有得出具體的數字。顯然，我們在開始關稅討論時就說過，嘿，我們與客戶、供應商和經銷商一起面對這個問題，而這將是我們未來面臨的相同情況。希望這將為我們的經銷商、客戶、PACCAR、供應商等所有人帶來一些好處，或者我們應該從中獲得一些積極的動力。而其量化仍有待觀察。

Congratulations, and thank you.

恭喜你，謝謝你。

Michael Feniger, Bank of America.

美國銀行的麥可費尼格。

Preston, I know this has been getting a lot of attention on Section 232. Just to be clear so we have some understanding. Do you believe, with the adjustments in the Section 232 implementation we saw, do you believe PACCAR now has a clear cost advantage as a US manufacturer? Or is this just even the playing field on the cost side with your peers when we saw there was a disadvantage obviously, early the year. So this just even it out? Or do you feel like it gives you a clear cost advantage as a major US manufacturer for the US market?

普雷斯頓，我知道第 232 條已經引起了很多關注。只是為了清楚起見，以便我們能夠有所了解。您是否認為，隨著我們看到的第 232 條實施的調整，PACCAR 作為美國製造商現在具有明顯的成本優勢？或者這只是在成本方面與同行公平競爭，而我們在年初就明顯看到了劣勢。所以這只是平衡了嗎？或者您覺得，作為美國市場的主要製造商，這會為您帶來明顯的成本優勢？

Michael, that's a great question. I appreciate you highlighting the fact that our team did a really good job for the past several months dealing with the cost disadvantage and unintended cost disadvantage. So the fact that our market share is 30.3% for Peterbilt and Kenworth right now is just a credit to the teams at those divisions and to the manufacturing teams and pretty much everybody in PACCAR that operated from that tough position.

邁克爾，這個問題問得非常好。感謝您強調我們的團隊在過去幾個月中在處理成本劣勢和意外成本劣勢方面做得非常出色。因此，目前我們在 Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 的市佔率為 30.3%，這要歸功於這些部門的團隊、製造團隊以及幾乎所有在這種艱難處境下努力工作的 PACCAR 員工。

As we look forward, we, of course, don't know what our competitors' cost structure is. So it's really hard to estimate that and probably should avoid doing so. What I would rather do is say that I think it helps PACCAR significantly, and that should be good for our customers and PACCAR. And I think it gives us a competitive leg up from where we've been.

展望未來，我們當然不知道競爭對手的成本結構是什麼樣的。因此，這確實很難估計，而且可能應該避免這樣做。我更願意說，我認為這對 PACCAR 有很大幫助，這對我們的客戶和 PACCAR 都有好處。我認為這讓我們比以前更具競爭力。

And just my second question to squeeze it in. Just there's been commentary on Parts, that Parts, there's been some deferrals there. I know you hit your -- when you guys were forecasting at 4%. Just what are you seeing underlying on the Parts side? And can Parts margins, do you think, start to expand in 2026 on a year-over-year basis? What do we need to see in the market for us to kind of see that start to expand on a year over year and to get Parts moving? Because I know the underlying market has been a bit challenging there.

這是我擠出時間問的第二個問題。只是對部分內容有一些評論，部分內容有一些延期。我知道你們已經達到了預期的 4% 的水平。您在零件方面看到了什麼？您認為零件利潤率在 2026 年是否會開始年增？我們需要在市場上看到什麼才能看到它逐年擴大並推動零件的運作？因為我知道那裡的基礎市場有點挑戰性。

Yes, Mike, this is Kevin. I'll take that one. So similar to Truck, the Parts business was definitely impacted by tariffs as well as the overall soft truck market. Price did cover cost. So when we look at the margin impact, it was really a mix shift. We saw that a shift in proprietary versus all-makes and also a little bit of region impact by fewer days in Europe.

是的，麥克，這是凱文。我要那個。因此，與卡車類似，零件業務肯定受到關稅以及整體疲軟卡車市場的影響。價格確實覆蓋了成本。因此，當我們觀察利潤率影響時，這實際上是一種混合轉變。我們看到專有品牌與全品牌之間的轉變，歐洲地區受到的影響也減少了一些。

And I'll just reinforce, there's still tremendous opportunity for growth. Parts team did a great job providing parts and programs to provide excellent customer service during a soft market. So a really nice job with the revenue growth. And we continue to invest in distribution. Our dealers are continuing to invest in locations and service capacity. And so yes, we see there's definitely opportunity for future growth.

我只想強調的是，仍有巨大的成長機會。零件團隊在提供零件和程序方面做得非常出色，在市場疲軟的情況下提供了優質的客戶服務。因此，收入成長確實是一項很好的工作。我們將繼續投資分銷。我們的經銷商正在繼續投資於地點和服務能力。所以是的，我們看到未來肯定存在成長機會。

And everything Kevin said is just 100% right, and then you have the opportunity that 232 is also advantageous to components. And so that will help us in a price cost looking forward.

Kevin 所說的一切都是 100% 正確的，那麼 232 對組件來說也是有利的。這將有助於我們展望價格成本。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的安吉爾·卡斯蒂略。

I was hoping we could just go back to the tariff discussion a little bit more. You had mentioned, I think, [3Q] is obviously a $75 million headwind. With tariff headwinds kind of peaking out here in October and the ramp-up in the rebates, can you just quantify for us exactly how much of a tariff headwind you anticipate to be baked into the fourth quarter? And as you look at the gross profit margin moving from 12.5% to 12%, is that entirely due to tariff ramp-up? Or are there any other factors there that we should consider?

我希望我們能夠稍微回到關稅討論上來。我認為您曾經提到過，[3Q] 顯然是一個 7500 萬美元的逆風。隨著關稅逆風在十月達到頂峰以及退稅的增加，您能否為我們量化一下預計第四季度將承受多大的關稅逆風？而當您看到毛利率從 12.5% 上升到 12% 時，這是否完全是由於關稅上調造成的？或者有其他因素值得我們考慮嗎？

We think mostly about tariff ramp-up. As we said and you just articulated, right, October doesn't have any reduction, so it's kind of a peak tariff for us in that first part of fourth quarter. And then we're still understanding what the cadence is going to be for how the tariffs feather off for us through the course of November, December. But that's the single biggest impact right now.

我們主要考慮的是關稅上調。正如我們所說，您剛才也表達了，十月份沒有任何減價，所以對我們來說，這是第四季度前半段的峰值關稅。然後，我們仍在了解 11 月和 12 月期間關稅將如何逐漸減少。但這是目前最大的影響。

And I think as we look at it, so you go from a $75 million third quarter, we saw that on slate to increase in the fourth quarter. But with the 232, we see that coming down. And by the time we get to the December time frame, January time frame, we'll start to see improvement, market improvement, we anticipate.

我認為，從第三季的 7,500 萬美元來看，我們看到第四季的銷售額將會增加。但隨著 232 的出現，我們看到這一數字正在下降。我們預計，到 12 月和 1 月時，我們將開始看到改善，市場將有所改善。

That's very helpful. And then as we think about next year, I understand that EPA '27, there's still a lot of uncertainty around that. I guess in terms of your outlook for North America for US and Canada, are you assuming any kind of prebuy still related to EPA '27 in that?

這非常有幫助。當我們考慮明年時，我了解到 EPA '27 仍然存在許多不確定性。我想，就您對美國和加拿大的北美前景而言，您是否認為任何類型的預購仍與 EPA '27 相關？

So we gave a 230,000 to 270,000 market. And the reason we gave that significant range is because I think there's some uncertainty in how quick the truckload sector recovers, is it sometime in the first quarter to take a little bit. I think we also are anticipating that the 35-milligram law is what's going to be there. And if it changes, that would obviously take away some prebuy and that would put us more towards the 230,000, 240,000, 250,000 side of that category versus if the 35-milligram standard stays in place, it's more like the 250,000, 260,000, 270,000, and maybe even higher.

所以我們給了 23 萬到 27 萬的市場。我們給出這麼大範圍的原因是，我認為卡車運輸業的復甦速度存在一些不確定性，是否需要在第一季的某個時候稍微恢復一下。我認為我們也期待 35 毫克的法律能夠得以實施。如果它發生變化，顯然會減少一些預購，這將使我們更傾向於該類別的 230,000、240,000、250,000 一側，而如果 35 毫克的標準保持不變，它更像是 250,000、260,000、270,000，甚至更高。

So we kind of see that as being a significant factor in how the market shapes up next year, and we look forward to clarity when it happens. But in the meantime, the clarity is 35 milligrams.

因此，我們認為這是決定明年市場走向的重要因素，我們期待屆時能明朗化。但同時，清晰度為35毫克。

Tim Thein, Raymond James.

提姆泰恩、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Just following up on the comment earlier with respect to the Parts business pricing covered variable costs. I perhaps missed it. But did you give a comment just with respect to pricing that you realized in the Truck business in the third quarter and maybe your expectations for the fourth.

只是想跟進一下之前關於零件業務定價涵蓋變動成本的評論。我可能錯過了。但是，您是否就第三季卡車業務的定價以及對第四季度的預期發表了評論？

Sure. For the third quarter compared to last year's third quarter, our pricing was down 1.3% and the costs were up 4.6% for a negative 5.9% there. And obviously, tariffs played a big role in that number.

當然。與去年第三季相比，第三季我們的定價下降了 1.3%，成本上漲了 4.6%，降幅為 5.9%。顯然，關稅在這一數字中發揮了重要作用。

Well, and sequentially, it was 1.6%, and I think what we think is favorability should start to be achieved as we move forward.

嗯，連續成長了 1.6%，我認為隨著我們不斷前進，我們所認為的支持率應該會開始實現。

Got it. Okay. And then Preston, maybe just as I think about potential early indicators of maybe a bottoming, I think historically, we would look at what the behavior and what the lease and rental customers are doing and seeing in their business. Do you have a good lens into that just given the PacLease? So I'm just curious what you're seeing in that business with respect to utilization? And I would agree that that could be an important thing to watch as a potential turning point.

知道了。好的。然後普雷斯頓，也許正如我所想到的可能是觸底的潛在早期指標一樣，我認為從歷史上看，我們會觀察租賃和租賃客戶的行為以及他們在業務中所做的事情和所看到的事情。鑑於 PacLease 的存在，您對此有什麼好的見解嗎？所以我只是好奇您在該業務中看到了怎樣的利用率？我同意這可能是值得關注的重要事情，因為它是一個潛在的轉捩點。

Yes, it's a good question. I think that utilization is a key factor. And for PacLease, it's healthy right now. So I think that they're starting to see these places of opportunity and we'll watch that closely along with all the other indicators, right? Certainly, as you well understand, there's many, many things that go into the make of a truck market. That's one of them, and utilization is healthy.

是的，這是個好問題。我認為利用率是關鍵因素。對於 PacLease 來說，目前情況良好。所以我認為他們開始看到這些機會的地方，我們會密切關注這一點以及所有其他指標，對嗎？當然，正如您所知，卡車市場的製造涉及許多因素。這是其中之一，而且利用率很高。

Jamie Cook, Truist.

傑米庫克 (Jamie Cook)，Truist。

Sorry, two questions. One, Preston, can you just speak to -- since Section 232 has been announced, obviously, I'm sure you've had a lot of conversations with your customers. What do they think in terms of like potential incremental market share? And I'm just wondering, as you think about your plans in Denton and Chillicothe, like just capacity you have or where market share could go until you'd have to think about investment. I'm assuming you have a lot of runway for market share, but just sort of some thoughts there.

抱歉，有兩個問題。首先，普雷斯頓，您能否談談——自從第 232 條公佈以來，顯然，我相信您已經與您的客戶進行了多次交談。他們對潛在的增量市佔率有何看法？我只是想知道，當您考慮在丹頓和奇利科西的計劃時，您的產能如何，或者在您必須考慮投資之前您的市場份額可以達到什麼程度。我假設您在市場份額方面擁有很大的發展空間，但這只是一些想法。

And then I guess my second question, I mean, it sounds like you think the 12% gross margin in the fourth quarter, like that should be the trough for margins for PACCAR even assuming a flat market next year just with the benefit from Section 232 and tariffs mitigating and potentially the market being flat to up next year. So it sounds like, I don't want to put words in your mouth, but you can probably grow earnings next year, but I'll let you chew on that and see if I can get any reaction out of you.

然後我想我的第二個問題是，聽起來您認為第四季度 12% 的毛利率應該是 PACCAR 利潤率的底線，即使假設明年市場持平，僅從第 232 條和關稅緩解的好處以及明年市場可能持平或上漲來看。所以聽起來，我不想把話塞到你嘴裡，但你明年的收入可能會增加，但我會讓你仔細考慮一下，看看我是否能從你那裡得到任何反應。

Jamie, you're fun. Well, let's do the first question, which is you said, do we think we can gain share and how do we think about capacity in our factories. And one of the things I'm really pleased with our manufacturing team over the last couple of years as we've made these big investments into the factory so that we have capacity to handle. What ends up happening is quarterly swings in build, we talk about full years, but things really happen over a couple of quarters of [max] build rates.

傑米，你很有趣。好吧，讓我們來回答第一個問題，也就是您所說的，我們是否認為我們可以獲得份額，以及我們如何看待我們工廠的產能。過去幾年來，我對我們的製造團隊感到非常滿意，因為我們對工廠進行了大量投資，因此我們有能力處理。最終發生的是建設量的季度波動，我們談論的是全年，但事情實際上發生在幾個季度的[最大]建設率上。

So we're aware of that. We've made the investments in paint facilities, automatic vehicles to move parts around inside the truck plants, great work with our suppliers and their investments in the capacity that they have. So we feel like we can gain share, and we feel like we have the capacity to support gaining share in the coming time frame.

我們知道這一點。我們對噴漆設施、卡車廠內移動零件的自動化車輛進行了投資，並與供應商進行了良好的合作，並對其現有產能進行了投資。因此，我們覺得我們可以獲得份額，並且我們覺得我們有能力在未來的時間範圍內支持獲得份額。

I mentioned it earlier in the call, right, we invested in products. So we have the newest and best performing products in the industry. We've invested in our operations team. So we have the best manufacturing capacities, highest quality products with plenty of capacity to handle share growth.

我之前在電話裡提到過，對，我們投資了產品。因此，我們擁有業界最新、性能最好的產品。我們對我們的營運團隊進行了投資。因此，我們擁有最好的製造能力、最高品質的產品以及足夠的產能來應對份額成長。

So I feel really well positioned as we head to next year. And that does lead to your second question, I guess, of saying if 12% is the plus or minus now, what are you thinking next year is going to be or even the fourth quarter phasing? And I would say, as we said, with tariffs peaking in October, we do think that the cadence through the quarter on a month-by-month basis will be positive trending, and then we anticipate that being true through next year, right? So if the market was at a midpoint 250, we feel like that bodes well for our earnings growth and our margin growth.

因此，當我們邁向明年時，我感覺自己已經做好了充分的準備。我想，這確實引出了你的第二個問題，如果現在的正負值為 12%，那麼你認為明年或第四季的分階段成長率會是多少？我想說，正如我們所說的，隨著關稅在十月份達到峰值，我們確實認為整個季度逐月的節奏將呈現積極趨勢，然後我們預計明年仍將如此，對嗎？因此，如果市場處於中間點 250，我們認為這對我們的獲利成長和利潤成長來說是個好兆頭。

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞。

Apologies, but one more question on Section 232. It seems like your 3.75% value of the truck to [after] tariffs extends through 2030 would give some time to plan ahead. How are you thinking about your parts and component sourcing with that timeline in mind? Do you plan to expand footprint, bring stuff here in the US? Any thoughts on how you're thinking about the 2030 timeline?

抱歉，關於第 232 節還有一個問題。看來，卡車價值的 3.75% 到關稅延長至 2030 年會給您一些時間提前規劃。考慮到這個時間表，您如何考慮零件和組件的採購？您是否計劃擴大業務範圍，將產品帶到美國？您對 2030 年時間表有何看法？

Well, I think that we feel very good about the supply base and how they're positioned right now. And we do think that there will probably be some reflection in the coming weeks for people to think about where their production setups are and where they're going to position themselves.

嗯，我認為我們對供應基地及其目前的定位感到非常滿意。我們確實認為，未來幾週人們可能會進行一些反思，思考他們的生產設置在哪裡以及他們將把自己定位在哪裡。

And I think it's a little bit too early to be commenting on what they're going to actually do in terms of where they might adjust capacity into the different markets since it's just a few days old. But we are starting those conversations and look forward to working with our suppliers as we figure out where they're going to position component growth.

我認為現在評論他們將如何調整不同市場的運力還為時過早，因為這才剛剛過去幾天。但我們已經開始這些對話，並期待與我們的供應商合作，以確定他們將如何定位組件成長。

Got it. If I could ask one more. I think you have this huge advantage of building over 90% of trucks here versus some of your peers, they make elsewhere. So this seems like a huge advantage. And so when you think about this offset and the pricing you have taken, is there any plan to give back any of this pricing as some of these headwinds are offset in order to gain share for the long term? Is that sort of a strategy you might consider?

知道了。如果我可以再問一個。我認為你們擁有巨大的優勢，因為 90% 以上的卡車都是在這裡製造的，而你們的一些同行則在其他地方生產。所以這似乎是一個巨大的優勢。因此，當您考慮這種抵消和您採取的定價時，是否有任何計劃返還這些定價，因為其中一些不利因素被抵消，以便長期獲得份額？您會考慮這種策略嗎？

Well, Tami, you're really smart and you ask great questions, and you can understand how we think about margin price, market share, and it's not an either/or thing, right? We're always, as a company, trying to provide great trucks, great transportation solutions for your customer and then be paid fairly for them, and nothing is different in the environment we're in today than that, right? We want to keep providing these great trucks and transportation solutions.

好吧，塔米，你真的很聰明，你問的問題很棒，你能理解我們如何看待利潤價格、市場份額，這不是非此即彼的事情，對吧？作為一家公司，我們始終致力於為客戶提供優質的卡車、出色的運輸解決方案，然後獲得公平的報酬，而我們今天所處的環境中也沒有什麼不同，對嗎？我們希望繼續提供這些優秀的卡車和運輸解決方案。

And as we do that, we think our customers are happy to pay us fairly for them. As cost goes down, that should bring some benefit to them, and that should bring some market share opportunity to us, we hope.

當我們這樣做時，我們認為我們的客戶會樂意為我們支付合理的費用。我們希望，隨著成本下降，這應該會為他們帶來一些好處，也應該為我們帶來一些市佔率機會。

Chad Dillard, Bernstein.

查德·迪拉德，伯恩斯坦。

So on an industry level, how are you thinking about the supply-demand balance of trucks actually getting into the fleet? How much excess capacity is out there? How long does it take to clear? And is this embedded in your '26 industry outlook?

那麼從產業層面來看，您如何看待卡車實際進入車隊的供需平衡？產能過剩程度有多大？清除需要多長時間？這是否體現在您的 26 年產業展望中？

This is a really interesting question. It's really hard to give you anything specific, Chad. We think about it right now, there's sufficient capacity that's sitting out there in the industry right now. At the current build rates, you can understand that clearly. The question really remains how quickly does the market adjust? And where does it adjust from? When do people start to think that 35 milligrams is what's going to happen in the NOx standard? When do our customers, in the truckload sector, which represent 40% of the market, start to feel some confidence that they're able to get rates? And I think it's really hard to handicap what that's going to be, the timing for that.

這是一個非常有趣的問題。查德，真的很難給你任何具體資訊。我們現在考慮一下，目前該行業有足夠的產能。按照目前的建設速度，您可以清楚地理解這一點。真正的問題仍然是市場調整的速度有多快？那麼它從哪裡進行調整呢？人們什麼時候開始認為 35 毫克就是 NOx 標準中要達到的水平？在佔據 40% 市場份額的整車運輸領域，我們的客戶何時才能開始對自己能夠獲得優惠價格充滿信心？我認為，很難預測這將會發生什麼，以及發生的時間。

But again, it's been a long, tough period for the truckload carriers. And at some point, those equipment has to be replaced. And I think they're starting to feel that need. So I think there'll be some lift there. It will probably start gradually and then it will accelerate as the year goes on and people define their needs. So capacity exists for us in our factory with our suppliers. We're working closely with them to make sure we can build the trucks our customers want. We think it could be a pretty good looking 2026.

但對卡車運輸商來說，這又是一段漫長而艱辛的時期。到了一定時候，這些設備就必須更換。我認為他們開始感受到這種需求。所以我認為那裡會有一些提升。它可能會逐漸開始，然後隨著時間的推移和人們明確其需求，它會加速。因此，我們的工廠和供應商都具備一定的產能。我們正在與他們密切合作，以確保我們能夠製造出客戶想要的卡車。我們認為 2026 年將會是相當不錯的一年。

Got it. And then on that same line you're talking about how customers are keeping the trucks a little longer. Any early thoughts on the Parts business as we think about 2026? How should we think about the growth profile for that business?

知道了。然後在同一主題上，您談到了客戶如何將卡車保留更長時間。當我們考慮 2026 年時，您對零件業務有什麼初步想法嗎？我們該如何看待該業務的成長前景？

Chad, this is Kevin. We think about it the same way we have. The truck park has been at elevated levels over the years, and so that creates tremendous growth opportunity for us. Already mentioned the continued investments we're making. The Parts team is doing a great job providing tailored programs. We're leveraging AI to get smarter about providing our right part to the right place at the right time. And so we see next year is just a continuation of the great work the team has done.

查德，這是凱文。我們以同樣的方式思考這個問題。多年來，卡車停車場的規模一直處於高位，這為我們創造了巨大的成長機會。已經提到了我們正在進行的持續投資。零件團隊在提供客製化計畫方面做得非常出色。我們正在利用人工智慧來更聰明地在正確的時間將正確的零件提供給正確的地點。因此，我們認為明年只是團隊所做偉大工作的延續。

Yes. And if I could just add on top of that, the fact that the retail market in the US is still negative, as an overhang at some point, that will turn. So we're growing in a market that is negative is a really good tribute to our group and to PACCAR Parts, and we think that provides a lot of opportunity for us in the next year.

是的。除此之外，我還可以補充一點，美國零售市場仍然處於負面狀態，在某個時候，這種情況將會轉變。因此，我們在一個不景氣的市場中實現成長，這對我們集團和 PACCAR Parts 來說是一個很好的讚揚，我們認為這為我們明年提供了大量的機會。

Kyle Menges, Citigroup.

花旗集團的凱爾孟格斯 (Kyle Menges)。

I was hoping if you could just talk a little bit about demand you're seeing maybe just into the first half of next year and contextualizing that with your order book so far for the fourth quarter, 60% to 70% full? I guess how would that compare to a quote-unquote normal fill rate at this point in the year for the fourth quarter and how that's informing your views of demand into the first half next year?

我希望您能簡單談談您看到的明年上半年的需求情況，並將其與您第四季度迄今為止的訂單情況進行對比，看看訂單量是否達到 60% 到 70%？我想，這與今年第四季的正常填充率相比如何，以及這對您對明年上半年需求的看法有何影響？

And then it'd be helpful to hear your comments on inventory and any need for destocking. And I think in particular, in the vocational market, at least the industry data suggests inventories are really high. So it would be helpful to hear your thoughts there on any need for destocking in that market.

然後聽聽您對庫存和任何去庫存需求的評論將會很有幫助。我認為，特別是在職業市場，至少行業數據顯示庫存確實很高。因此，聽聽您對該市場是否需要去庫存的看法將會很有幫助。

Yes. I think we feel like from an inventory standpoint, the industry is in a position where it's like four months of industry inventory. That's down from 4.2 months the last time we spoke in July. So it's improving from an industry standpoint and from a Kenworth, Peterbilt standpoint. We are at 2.8 months, which is a very healthy level for us. So we feel quite good about that. It doesn't feel like -- we obviously have a high vocational share market leaders in the vocational segment, so that says we have more inventory getting bodies on it. And so 2.8 months for us, it feels really healthy, which kind of leads back to your first question about order intake and what's the market doing.

是的。我認為從庫存的角度來看，該行業目前處於相當於四個月的行業庫存的狀態。這比我們上次 7 月談話時的 4.2 個月有所下降。因此，從產業角度以及從肯沃斯、彼得比爾特的角度來看，情況都在改善。我們現在處於 2.8 個月，這對我們來說是一個非常健康的水平。所以我們對此感覺很好。感覺不像——我們顯然在職業領域擁有較高的職業份額市場領導者，所以這意味著我們有更多的庫存獲取機構。因此，對於我們來說，2.8 個月的時間感覺非常健康，這又回到了您關於訂單量和市場表現的第一個問題。

We don't have an excess amount of inventory. So we're 60% to 70% full. We'll head into what a typical -- typically in late October and November, we get into capital allocation for the major truckload carriers and we'll get a good look at what their buying plans are for the year. Those discussions are always ongoing, but they really kind of begin to cement up in the fourth quarter, and we look forward to having those conversations with them.

我們沒有過多的庫存。所以我們的客流量是 60% 到 70%。我們將討論典型的情況——通常在十月下旬和十一月，我們會討論主要卡車運輸公司的資本配置，並仔細了解他們今年的採購計劃。這些討論一直在進行，但它們在第四季度才真正開始鞏固，我們期待與他們進行這些對話。

And I think that we'll see the first half start to fill in reasonably well now that we have clarity around tariffs as people get their hands around with the laws of 35 milligrams and appreciate that it really is a good time to buy trucks for them and probably the right time for them to buy trucks so they can keep their fleet age where they want it.

我認為，隨著人們對 35 毫克的法律有了清晰的了解，我們將看到上半年開始得到相當好的填補，並意識到現在確實是購買卡車的好時機，而且可能是他們購買卡車的正確時機，這樣他們就可以將車隊的年齡保持在他們想要的水平。

Got it. And then just a follow-up on an earlier question. It does sound like with Section 232 and the rebates that you'll see, it sounds like you might be passing some of those savings on to the customer. Curious how that might look? Is that simplistically just taking off the existing tariff surcharges, which I think were around $3,500 to $4,000 per truck in Class 8? Is it just kind of simplistically taking those surcharges off? Like how should we be thinking about that?

知道了。然後只是對之前的問題進行跟進。聽起來，根據第 232 條和您將看到的回扣，您可能會將部分節省的費用轉嫁給客戶。好奇看起來會是什麼樣子嗎？這是否只是簡單地取消現有的關稅附加費（我認為第 8 類卡車的關稅附加費約為每輛 3,500 至 4,000 美元）？這是否只是簡單地取消這些附加費？我們該如何思考這個問題？

Well, I mean, what we've said before is the tariffs are still peaked in October and then they're going to come down from there in a process through the fourth quarter. So we are looking at that. I think that our intention is to get away from a tariff discussion with customers now that we have stability, and we can just integrate into pricing and discuss the price of these great trucks for the customer and get away from the tariff statement now that we have stability. So that will be helpful to everybody inside of our customers' base.

嗯，我的意思是，我們之前說過，關稅在十月仍將達到峰值，然後在第四季逐漸下降。所以我們正在研究這個問題。我認為，我們的目的是，既然我們已經穩定了，就不再與客戶進行關稅討論，我們可以整合定價，為客戶討論這些優質卡車的價格，既然我們已經穩定了，就不再與客戶進行關稅聲明。這對我們客戶群中的每個人都有幫助。

Just don't have to think about what we had to, if it's $3,500 to $4,000 of tariff surcharges. We can move away from that kind of discussion is getting to truck pricing again since there's clarity and stability.

只是不必考慮我們必須考慮的事情，如果是 3,500 美元到 4,000 美元的關稅附加費。我們可以不再討論卡車定價問題，因為這個問題更清晰、穩定。

(Operator Instructions) [Aviara Loritz], UBS.

（操作員指示）[Aviara Loritz]，瑞銀。

I think you said the order book's for Q4 about 60% to 70% full. Is that pretty uniform by region? Or are there any that are notably off of that point?

我認為您說過第四季度的訂單量約為 60% 到 70%。各地區的情況是否一致？或者有哪些內容明顯偏離了這一點？

Yes, that's a great question. It is actually pretty uniform by region right now. So we've seen the European market have strong order intake, and we're seeing that 67% full there as well as in North America.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。目前，各地區的情況其實相當統一。因此，我們看到歐洲市場的訂單量強勁，我們看到歐洲市場和北美市場的訂單量都達到了 67%。

Okay. And if I can follow that up, assuming that we don't hear anything new [DA] on the NOx rules, when are customers telling you that they might start prebuying? Could that be in the first half? Or is anybody saying that they would expect to do that in the first half? Or would that really be more a second half story?

好的。如果我可以跟進的話，假設我們沒有聽到有關 NOx 規則的任何新消息 [DA]，那麼客戶什麼時候會告訴您他們可能會開始預購？那可能是在上半場嗎？或者有人說他們希望在上半年做到這一點？或者這實際上更像是故事的後半部分？

I think their buying decisions, these are really smart people, our customers, and so they're thinking about all the inputs, not just the one. I think it has a heavy influence on them to contemplate the 35 milligrams and whether or not they need to think about pulling ahead. But they're also looking at their fundamentals of freight and rates. They're looking at, is there a stable operating environment, which the Commerce Department and The White House did a great job of providing for them now.

我認為他們的購買決策，都是非常聰明的人，我們的客戶，所以他們考慮所有的投入，而不僅僅是一個。我認為，考慮 35 毫克以及他們是否需要考慮領先會對他們產生很大的影響。但他們也在關注運費和費率的基本面。他們正在關注是否有穩定的經營環境，而商務部和白宮目前已經為他們提供了良好的經營環境。

And so I think all of those are the factors. And I would kind of -- I kind of think that they will start to really have a lot of interest here in the fourth quarter of what their 2026 buying plan is. And probably by the time we're in the first quarter, they're going to be needing to react to it if it stays at 35 milligram.

所以我認為所有這些都是因素。我有點——我有點認為他們會在第四季度開始真正對他們的 2026 年購買計劃產生濃厚興趣。可能到第一季度，如果濃度保持在 35 毫克，他們就需要做出反應。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團、沃爾夫研究公司。

This is Cole on for Scott. Just back to Section 232 a little bit. I heard earlier in the call, you mentioned that pricing increased 1.6% sequentially in the quarter and that momentum should kind of continue. But then in the same breath, you're kind of talking to the fact that you want to help out your customer. Maybe help like situate us there. Are the tariff surcharges effectively going to go away, but core pricing should continue to move higher? Just any way to help us wrap our head around of that.

這是科爾代替斯科特上場。稍微回到第 232 節。我之前在電話會議中聽到您提到本季價格環比上漲 1.6%，而且這種勢頭應該會持續下去。但同時，你也在表達你想要幫助你的客戶。也許能幫助我們找到那裡。關稅附加費是否會有效取消，但核心價格是否會繼續走高？任何方法都可以幫助我們理解這一點。

Yes, I think that -- yes, it's a great question, actually. It's an interesting dynamic right now. Surcharges really only exists at moments of inflection where there's some unique factors sitting into there, and hence, the reason for the surcharges that we had. That point of inflection is now passed, and we have stability. So it allows us to probably get rid of the tariff surcharge and go back to normal pricing discussions with our customers, and obviously, providing premium trucks and transportation solutions allows us to kind of make sure that we have fair pricing to them, good for them, good for us.

是的，我認為——是的，實際上這是一個很好的問題。現在這是一個有趣的動態。附加費實際上只存在於轉折點，此時存在一些獨特的因素，因此，我們才會收取附加費。那個轉折點現在已經過去，我們已處於穩定狀態。因此，它使我們能夠擺脫關稅附加費，並恢復與客戶的正常定價討論，顯然，提供優質的卡車和運輸解決方案使我們能夠確保向他們提供公平的定價，這對他們有利，對我們也有利。

And obviously, as we see costs change, should be somewhat favorable. We both would benefit from it. So we see that as a great opportunity for PACCAR and our customers to have a strong finish to the year and an even stronger 2026.

顯然，我們看到成本的變化應該是有利的。我們雙方都會從中受益。因此，我們認為這對 PACCAR 和我們的客戶來說是一個絕佳的機會，可以在今年取得圓滿成功，並在 2026 年取得更輝煌的成績。

Yes. And last quarter, you mentioned that 3Q gross margins would be -- I think the math was roughly 14%, excluding tariff cost. Is that a good way to think about 1Q as we hit run rate as rebates kind of offset some of the tariff costs? Or is there any other way to think about how margins should build through 4Q into 1Q when we hit run rate?

是的。上個季度，您提到第三季度的毛利率將是——我認為計算結果大約是 14%，不包括關稅成本。當我們達到運行率時，這是思考第一季的好方法嗎？因為回扣抵銷了部分關稅成本？或者，當我們達到運行率時，還有其他方法可以思考利潤率應如何從第四季度到第一季建立？

Yes. I think we actually said around 13%. And then what we've said is tariffs peaking in the fourth quarter, declining throughout the fourth quarter will allow us to see growth as we get into, say, the December time frame and then continued improvement into the first quarter of 2026.

是的。我認為我們實際上說的是 13% 左右。然後我們所說的是，關稅在第四季度達到峰值，然後在整個第四季度下降，這將使我們能夠看到在進入 12 月的時間範圍內出現增長，然後在 2026 年第一季繼續改善。

There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有什麼補充說明嗎？

I'd like to thank everyone for joining the call and thank you operator.

我要感謝大家參加電話會議，也感謝接線生。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，PACCAR 的收益電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。