帕卡 (PCAR) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to PACCAR's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Today's call is being recorded and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time.

早安，歡迎參加帕卡公司2023年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）本次電話會議正在錄音，如有任何異議，請立即掛起。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我謹介紹帕卡公司投資者關係總監肯‧黑斯廷斯先生。黑斯廷斯先生，請開始。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Brice Poplawski, Vice President and Controller.

早安.歡迎各位透過電話和網路直播收聽節目的朋友們。我是PACCAR投資者關係總監肯‧黑斯廷斯。今天早上與我一同出席的還有執行長普雷斯頓·費特、總裁兼財務長哈里·希​​珀斯以及副總裁兼財務總監布萊斯·波普拉夫斯基。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the Investor Relations page of paccar.com.

與以往的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有參與電話會議的媒體成員以僅收聽模式參與。今天公佈的部分資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的總體經濟和競爭狀況。更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及paccar.com網站的投資者關係頁面。

I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

現在我來介紹普雷斯頓費特。

Good morning. Harrie, Brice, Ken and I will update you on a record fourth quarter and full year 2023 results as well as other business highlights.

早安.哈利、布萊斯、肯和我將向大家報告創紀錄的第四季和2023年全年業績，以及其他業務亮點。

PACCAR's outstanding employees delivered the excellent results by providing our customers with the highest quality trucks and transportation solutions in the industry.

PACCAR 的優秀員工透過向客戶提供業界最高品質的卡車和運輸解決方案，取得了優異的成績。

In 2023, PACCAR achieved annual revenues of $35.1 billion, net income of $4.6 billion and an after-tax return on revenue of 13.1%. All 3 were records. PACCAR's strong financial performance benefited from record deliveries of DAF, Kenworth and Peterbilt's innovative trucks, record results in our parts division and strong financial services performance.

2023年，PACCAR集團實現年收入351億美元，淨利46億美元，稅後收入回報率13.1%，三項數據均創歷史新高。 PACCAR強勁的財務表現得益於DAF、Kenworth和Peterbilt創新型卡車的交付量創歷史新高，零件部門業績也創歷史新高，以及金融服務業務的出色表現。

PACCAR shareholders and customers benefited from the $7.8 billion invested over the past 10 years in new products, world-class facilities and state-of-the-art technologies. PACCAR achieved 85 consecutive years of net income and has paid a dividend every year since 1941. In 2023, PACCAR declared a record $4.24 per share in dividends, including an extra cash dividend of $3.20 per share.

過去十年，PACCAR 投資 78 億美元用於新產品研發、世界一流設施建設和尖端技術開發，股東和客戶都從中受益。 PACCAR 已連續 85 年實現淨盈利，並自 1941 年以來每年派發股息。 2023 年，PACCAR 宣布派發創紀錄的每股 4.24 美元股息，其中包括每股 3.20 美元的額外現金股息。

PACCAR's fourth quarter revenues were $9 billion. Quarterly net income was a record $1.42 billion, which was 54% higher than the prior year. Fourth quarter net income included a $120 million tax provision release in Brazil.

帕卡集團第四季營收達90億美元。季度淨利創下14.2億美元的歷史新高，較上年同期成長54%。第四季淨利包含巴西方面1.2億美元的稅收撥備。

PACCAR Parts achieved fourth quarter revenues of $1.61 billion and pretax profits of $432 million. In the fourth quarter of 2023, PACCAR delivered 51,000 trucks and for the first quarter of 2024, deliveries are forecast to be around 48,000.

PACCAR Parts第四季營收達16.1億美元，稅前利潤為4.32億美元。 2023年第四季度，PACCAR交付了5.1萬輛卡車；預計2024年第一季交付量約為4.8萬輛。

Last year, U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck retail sales were 297,000 units. Kenworth and Peterbilt's full year deliveries increased from 96,000 to 109,000. In 2024, the U.S. economy is projected to expand within the truck sector, the vocational, less than truckload and medium-duty segments are experiencing strong demand and customers are benefiting from the superior performance of new Kenworth and Peterbilt truck models. The 2024 U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck market is forecast to be in a range of 260,000 to 300,000 vehicles.

去年，美國和加拿大8級卡車零售銷售量為29.7萬輛。肯沃斯和彼得比爾特的全年交付量從9.6萬輛增加到10.9萬輛。預計2024年，美國經濟將帶動卡車產業成長，其中專用卡車、零擔卡車和中型卡車市場需求強勁，客戶將受益於新款肯沃斯和彼得比爾特卡車卓越的性能。預計2024年美國和加拿大8級卡車市場規模將在26萬至30萬輛之間。

European above 16-tonne truck registrations were 343,000 last year. DAF's 2023 European deliveries increased to a record 63,000 trucks. DAF's customers appreciate the industry-leading fuel efficiency and driver comfort of DAF's premium trucks. These trucks have a unique competitive advantage in the European market due to an innovative aerodynamic design that features the largest and most luxurious cab interior. In 2024, the European economy is forecast to grow modestly. We expect the above 16-tonne truck registrations to be in the range of 260,000 to 300,000.

去年歐洲16噸以上卡車註冊量為34.3萬輛。 DAF 2023年歐洲交付量將創下6.3萬輛的紀錄。 DAF的客戶對DAF高端卡車業界領先的燃油效率和駕駛舒適性讚不絕口。這些卡車憑藉著創新的空氣動力學設計，以及最大、最豪華的駕駛室內部空間，在歐洲市場擁有獨特的競爭優勢。預計2024年歐洲經濟將溫和成長。我們預計16噸以上卡車的註冊量將在26萬至30萬輛之間。

Last year, the South American above 16-tonne truck market was 110,000 vehicles and is expected to be similar this year. In Brazil, DAF achieved a record 10.2% share, up from 6.9% last year. DAF Brazil makes a growing contribution to PACCAR's global success.

去年，南美洲16噸以上卡車市場銷量為11萬輛，預計今年將與此相近。在巴西，DAF的市佔率創下10.2%的歷史新高，高於去年的6.9%。 DAF巴西公司對PACCAR的全球成功貢獻日益增長。

PACCAR full year truck parts and other gross margins were 19.3% and were 19.4% in the fourth quarter reflecting strong truck deliveries and excellent parts business. We estimate PACCAR's worldwide first quarter truck and parts gross margins to remain strong and be in the range of 18.5% to 19%.

PACCAR全年卡車零件及其他業務毛利率為19.3%，第四季為19.4%，反映出強勁的卡車交付量和出色的零件業務表現。我們預計PACCAR全球第一季卡車及零件業務毛利率將保持強勁，介於18.5%至19%之間。

2023 was another great year for PACCAR with many highlights, including revenue and net income records. PACCAR announced a joint venture to manufacture commercial vehicle batteries. DAF opened a new electric truck assembly plant and earned the Green Truck award as the most fuel-efficient truck in Europe. PACCAR Parts celebrated its 50th anniversary and Kenworth celebrated its 100-year anniversary. We're looking forward to 2024 being another excellent year.

2023年對帕卡集團而言又是碩果累累的一年，亮點頻頻，包括營收和淨利潤均創歷史新高。帕卡集團宣布成立合資企業，生產商用車電池。達夫公司開設了一家新的電動卡車組裝廠，並榮獲“綠色卡車獎”，成為歐洲燃油效率最高的卡車。帕卡零件公司慶祝成立50週年，肯沃斯公司也慶祝了成立100週年。我們期待2024年再創佳績。

Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial Services and other business highlights. Harrie?

哈里希珀斯接下來將介紹帕卡零件公司、帕卡金融服務公司及其他業務亮點。哈里？

Thank you, Preston. In 2023, PACCAR Parts set new records for revenues and profits. Annual revenues increased by 11% to $6.4 billion and pretax profit increased by 18% to $1.7 billion. Parts gross margins climbed to 31.9%, up from 30.4% in the prior year. We estimate parts sales to grow by 3% to 5% in the first quarter of this year compared to the record first quarter last year.

謝謝你，普雷斯頓。 2023年，PACCAR零件業務的營收和利潤均創下新紀錄。年度營收成長11%至64億美元，稅前利潤成長18%至17億美元。零件毛利率攀升至31.9%，高於上年度的30.4%。我們預計今年第一季零件銷售額將比去年同期成長3%至5%，而去年第一季的銷售額已創下歷史新高。

PACCAR Parts' excellent long-term growth reflects the benefits of investments that increase vehicle uptime and convenience for customers. PACCAR's aftermarket parts and connected services businesses provide strong profitability through all phases of the business cycle. PACCAR Parts has 18 Parts Distribution Centers or PDCs worldwide and is expanding its global distribution network with the construction of a new PDC in Massbach, Germany, which will open later this year.

PACCAR Parts 的卓越長期成長反映了其投資帶來的效益，這些投資旨在提高車輛正常運行時間和客戶便利性。 PACCAR 的售後零件和互聯服務業務在整個商業週期中均保持著強勁的獲利能力。 PACCAR Parts 在全球擁有 18 個零件配送中心 (PDC)，並正在德國馬斯巴赫建造一座新的 PDC，該中心將於今年稍後投入運營，進一步擴展其全球分銷網絡。

PACCAR Financial Services achieved a fourth quarter pretax income of $113 million. Annual pretax income was $540 million and portfolio assets increased to $21 billion. The used truck market normalized in 2023. PACCAR continues to experience good sales volumes of its premium used trucks.

PACCAR金融服務公司第四季稅前利潤為1.13億美元。全年稅前利潤為5.4億美元，投資組合資產增加至210億美元。二手卡車市場預計將於2023年恢復正常。 PACCAR的高端二手卡車銷售持續保持良好勢頭。

PACCAR Financial continues to perform well with low past dues, the larger portfolio and excellent credit quality. Last year, PACCAR invested $698 million in capital projects and $411 million in research and development.

PACCAR Financial 表現持續良好，逾期欠款率低，投資組合規模擴大，信用品質優異。去年，PACCAR 在資本項目上投資了 6.98 億美元，在研發方面投資了 4.11 億美元。

PACCAR's return on invested capital increased to an industry-leading 38%. In 2024, we're planning capital investments in the range of $700 million to $750 million and R&D expenses in the range of $460 million to $500 million as we continue to invest in key technology and innovation projects. These include next-generation, clean combustion engines, battery and hydrogen, electric powertrains, advanced driver assistance systems and new connected vehicle services.

帕卡集團的投資報酬率已提升至業界領先的38%。 2024年，我們計劃投入7億至7.5億美元用於資本投資，並投入4.6億至5億美元用於研發，以持續投資關鍵技術和創新項目。這些項目包括下一代清潔內燃機、電池和氫能、電動動力系統、高級駕駛輔助系統以及新型互聯汽車服務。

PACCAR is also investing in additional manufacturing capacity, to support future growth, including truck factory expansions at PACCAR Mexico and Kenworth Chillicothe, Ohio. A new engine remanufacturing facility in Columbus, Mississippi and (inaudible) battery cell factory joint venture.

PACCAR 也投資增加生產能力，以支持未來的成長，包括擴建位於墨西哥 PACCAR 工廠和俄亥俄州奇利科西的 Kenworth 卡車工廠。此外，還在密西西比州哥倫布新建一家發動機再製造廠，以及（聽不清楚）電池單元合資工廠。

We're excited about the new Peterbilt Model 589, which began production this month. PACCAR's independent Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF dealers continue to invest in their businesses, enhancing our industry-leading distribution network and making a significant contribution to PACCAR's long-term success.

我們對本月開始生產的全新彼得比爾特589型卡車感到非常興奮。 PACCAR旗下獨立的肯沃斯、彼得比爾特和達夫經銷商持續投資於自身業務，不斷增強我們領先業界的經銷網絡，並為PACCAR的長期成功做出重大貢獻。

PACCAR had an outstanding year in 2023 and this year it's off to a very good start. Thank you. We'd be pleased to answer your questions.

PACCAR在2023年取得了卓越的成績，今年開局也非常好。謝謝。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is from Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的妮可·德布萊斯。

Maybe just starting with the outlook for 1Q deliveries. Could you just talk a little bit about the implied sequential step down? Is that kind of across all regions. And then I guess is your expectation that 1Q is the high point of the year for builds given that we started to see orders fall in December?

或許我們可以先談談第一季的交付展望。您能否簡要談談交付量環比下降的趨勢？這種情況是否普遍存在於所有地區？鑑於我們從12月份開始看到訂單下滑，您是否預期第一季將是全年產量的高峰？

Well, let me take that one for the time being and say that I think what we see is strong global markets, right, Australia is doing really well. Mexico is doing really well. South America is doing really well. North America is steady at very high levels and we've seen normalization in Europe, which is probably we said the market in 2024 is 260,000 to 300,000 which is 15% to 20% lower and that's kind of what we see in our deliveries in Europe. As far as the slowdown in orders, I'm not sure I can recognize that in our major North American markets. We see good order intake and good visibility.

好的，我先暫且說說這句話。我認為我們看到的是強勁的全球市場，對吧？澳洲表現非常出色，墨西哥也表現出色，南美洲市場也是如此。北美市場保持穩定，處於非常高的水平。歐洲市場也已趨於正常化，我們先前預測2024年歐洲市場規模將達到26萬至30萬輛，比目前下降15%至20%，這與我們在歐洲的交付量基本相符。至於訂單放緩的問題，我不確定能否在我們主要的北美市場觀察到。我們看到訂單量充足，市場前景良好。

Okay. Got it. And then just from a pricing perspective, can you guys just talk a little bit about what you're seeing with respect to industry pricing and any expectations for what you guys should realize in price for 2024?

好的，明白了。那麼從定價的角度來看，你們能否談談目前產業定價的狀況，以及對2024年價格的預期？

I mean I think what we have going on is -- and we've shared this many times but it's worth repeating is, we have refreshed our entire product lineup in the last few years. We have really high-performing products that are delivering excellent results for the customers. And I think that the latest recognition of that is the Green Truck award in Europe, for the new DAF products that were awarded as the most fuel-efficient product in Europe. As a result of that kind of performance of product, we're seeing good pricing realization for the trucks around the world for PACCAR.

我的意思是，我認為我們目前正在做的——雖然我們已經多次提到，但值得重申——是我們在過去幾年裡對整個產品線進行了更新。我們擁有真正高性能的產品，為客戶帶來了卓越的成果。我認為最近的認可是，DAF 的新產品榮獲歐洲綠色卡車獎，並被評為歐洲最節能的產品。由於產品性能如此出色，我們看到 PACCAR 的卡車在全球範圍內都獲得了良好的定價。

Our next question today is from Angel Castillo from Morgan Stanley.

我們今天的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的安吉爾·卡斯蒂略。

Congrats on the strong quarter. So maybe just to dig in a little bit more on kind of the pricing dynamic. I was wondering if you could kind of expand that into more of a price/cost and give a sense for how you're kind of thinking about decrementals and just underlying kind of margins for 2024 overall. I think you guided to 18.5% to 19% for the first quarter on gross margins. So maybe if you could again give a little bit more color on the full year and how we should see that progressing?

恭喜貴公司本季業績強勁。我想就定價策略再深入探討一下。能否請您詳細分析價格/成本關係，並談談您對2024年整體利潤率和潛在利潤率的考量？您之前曾預測第一季毛利率在18.5%到19%之間。能否請您再詳細闡述全年業績以及未來的發展趨勢？

Yes. Well, first of all, thanks for the comment on the year. I think our team deserves an incredible amount of credit all around the world for the wonderful performance. And we see that continuing right now. On the price, cost level standpoint, Angel, we think that we have good price against cost right now. We expect that to continue as we look forward. Obviously, there's a little bit of normalization in the market sizes. That's really the only thing we see going on, both Europe -- with Europe, as I mentioned already and North America in the single digits, 5% to 10% lower market size. But we expect see good markets and good price versus cost performance.

是的。首先，感謝您對過去一年的評價。我認為我們的團隊在全球範圍內都值得高度讚揚，因為他們取得瞭如此出色的成績。而我們看到這種勢頭目前正在延續。從價格和成本水準的角度來看，Angel，我們認為我們目前的性價比很高。我們預計這種情況會持續下去。顯然，市場規模正在趨於正常化。這實際上是我們目前看到的唯一變化，無論是歐洲（正如我之前提到的）還是北美（市場規模下降了個位數，大約5%到10%）。但我們預期市場前景良好，性價比也會維持良好。

And as you know, we don't share information on the full year. We'll get to the quarter-by-quarter analysis of things as we get further into the year.

如您所知，我們不會公佈全年的資訊。隨著時間的推移，我們會逐季進行分析。

Understood. And maybe just switching over to parts a little bit. The 3% to 5% that you guided to for 2024. Just curious if you could break that down a little bit more into pieces of what you're seeing in terms of price, volume kind of assumptions.

明白了。或許我們可以稍微換個角度談談。您之前預測2024年成長率會達到3%到5%。我很好奇您能否更詳細地解釋一下，您認為在價格、銷售等方面有哪些預期？

Yes, the increase was 3% to 5%. And so we see that mostly around the world. It compares to a record quarter -- first quarter last year. So at parts, we continue to see that strong performance also this year.

是的，增幅在3%到5%之間。而且這種情況在全球普遍存在。這與去年第一季創紀錄的增幅相比，今年部分地區的強勁表現仍在延續。

And for the full year, we're thinking parts would grow 4% to 8% compared to the record year last year. So -- and that also reflects favorable pricing and some cost increases.

我們預計全年零件價格將比去年創紀錄的年份增加4%至8%。這其中也反映了有利的定價策略和部分成本的上漲。

Our next question today is from Tami Zakaria from JPMorgan.

今天我們提出的下一個問題來自摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞。

So my first question is, I think your outlook for Europe is weaker than the U.S. and Canada this year. So can you remind us how is the margin profile for your business in those 2 regions? Is it weaker, Europe negative from a mix perspective, given the last couple of years of DAF model launches?

所以我的第一個問題是，我認為您今年對歐洲市場的展望比美國和加拿大弱。您能否簡單介紹一下貴公司在這兩個地區的利潤率？考慮到過去幾年DAF車型的推出，從產品組合的角度來看，歐洲市場的利潤率是否更低，甚至出現負成長？

Well, I don't think I would characterize it as weaker, Tami. I think I would say that in 2023, Europe was 343,000 units, which was a very, very high year, in fact, a record year for us, right, by a lot. And I think if we estimate the market at a midpoint to be 280,000, that's a nice year. I think that what we see is, obviously, the normalization of sales in that range but we still have these new products, which are providing great margins for us in the European theater.

嗯，我不認為應該用“疲軟”來形容它，塔米。我認為2023年歐洲銷量達到了34.3萬輛，這確實是一個非常非常高的年份，事實上，對我們來說是創紀錄的一年，而且遙遙領先。我認為，如果我們估計市場中位數約為28萬輛，那也是個不錯的年份。我認為，我們看到的是銷量在這個範圍內逐漸恢復正常，但我們仍然擁有這些新產品，它們在歐洲市場為我們帶來了豐厚的利潤。

Got it. So are the 2 regions similar in terms of margin profile? That's basically what I'm trying to understand.

明白了。那麼這兩個地區的利潤率情況相似嗎？這正是我想要了解的。

Yes, more or less similar. I think Europe is a little softer, so you'd expect some effect from that in Europe. But also in Europe, the new DAF continues its premium position. And as a result, we get excellent margins on those trucks.

是的，大體上類似。我認為歐洲市場環境略微疲軟一些，所以歐洲市場會受到一些影響。但即便如此，新款DAF卡車在歐洲仍保持高端定位。因此，這些卡車的利潤率非常可觀。

Our next question is from Chad Dillard from AllianceBernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自AllianceBernstein公司的Chad Dillard。

I was hoping you could unpack your gross margin guide of 18.5% to 19%. Maybe you can give some puts and takes of trucks versus parts. And then as you're thinking about like the full year, it sounds like parts are going to grow by mid-single digits. Should we expect gross margins in that business to continue that upward path?

我希望您能詳細解讀一下18.5%到19%的毛利率預期。或許您可以分析一下卡車和零件業務的優缺點。另外，您提到全年來看，零件業務的毛利率預計會以中等個位數成長。我們是否應該預期該業務的毛利率會繼續保持上升勢頭？

Well, I think what we would -- and unpack, I like your term, what I would share with you is the parts business continues to do really well. Last year was a record, as we mentioned or Harrie mentioned in his comments and we expect them to have a fantastic year this year as well. So even in truck market sizes that may moderate a little bit, we see the parts business doing a fantastic job. And that's because of the expansion in new PDCs. It's because of the connectivity that we're providing in the trucks. It's because of our great dealer network. And I think all of the benefits we provide to our customers.

嗯，我想說的是——我同意你的說法——我想和大家分享的是，零件業務持續表現非常出色。正如我們之前提到的，或者哈利在評論中提到的，去年創下了紀錄，我們預計今年也會取得非常好的成績。因此，即使卡車市場規模可能略有放緩，我們也看到零件業務表現出色。這得益於新型PDC（駐車配電箱）的推廣，得益於我們在卡車中提供的互聯功能，得益於我們強大的經銷商網絡，也得益於我們為客戶提供的所有優勢。

So I expect parts to continue to hum. And on the truck side, again, great new trucks are providing good margin performance and obviously, doing a fantastic job for our customers. That's what we see out there. And that's contributing to the strong truck margins.

所以我預計零件供應會繼續保持穩定。至於卡車方面，新款卡車表現出色，利潤率很高，顯然也為我們的客戶提供了卓越的服務。這就是我們目前所看到的。這也有助於卡車業務利潤率的強勁成長。

And just a second question, just on your fin co profitability. Just trying to think through the moving parts in '24, do you expect that profitability to grow. To what extent are you contemplating any buydowns or any additional reserves, given just what you're seeing in the truck market?

還有一個問題，關於貴公司財務獲利能力。我正在考慮2024年的各種因素，您預計獲利能力會成長嗎？鑑於目前卡車市場的狀況，您是否考慮過減持股份或增加儲備金？

We saw some more normalized used truck prices in the fourth quarter. And as a result, the good performance of PACCAR Financial at $113 million for the quarter. And if we now look at this year, we expect PACCAR Financial to continue that good performance also in the quarters of this year.

第四季二手卡車價格趨於正常化。因此，PACCAR Financial當季業績表現良好，營收達1.13億美元。展望今年，我們預計PACCAR Financial將在今年的幾季繼續保持良好的業績。

Our next question today is from David Raso from Evercore ISI.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

Kind of looking beyond '24, the notion of a prebuy. I'm just curious, conversations you're having today, now that we're in '24, on customers' thoughts of any pulling forward of, say, second half '26, '27 into next year. Anything at all about timing of orders to maybe reflect if we do see a prebuy in '25. Just trying to get a sense of how you're thinking about that concept moving forward.

展望2024年之後，關於預購的概念，我很好奇，既然現在已經是2024年了，你們現在和客戶討論的都是些什麼，比如客戶是否會把2026年下半年、2027年的訂單提前到明年？有沒有關於訂單時間安排的討論，以便我們能在2025年看到預購活動時有所參考？我只是想了解你們對這個概念未來發展的看法。

Sure, sure. I mean let me start by saying that it's not just a truckload carrier market out there. And in the LTL, the medium duty and the vocational markets, we're seeing strong performance of the products and strong interest from the customers with good order intake.

當然，當然。我的意思是，首先我要說的是，現在不僅僅是整車運輸市場。在零擔運輸、中型貨車和專用貨車市場，我們也看到產品表現強勁，顧客興趣濃厚，訂單量也很高。

I'd also say that from an overall PACCAR standpoint, as I mentioned, our global markets are doing quite well for us. But to dial in a little bit to your question, David, what I think is happening is the good operators, the ones that are thinking clearly about long term are continuing to buy trucks. And so they're looking to keep their fleet at a reasonable age and buying trucks and continuing that pattern.

我還想說，從帕卡集團整體的角度來看，正如我之前提到的，我們的全球市場表現相當不錯。但回到你的問題，大衛，我認為目前的情況是，那些優秀的運營商，那些著眼長遠、思路清晰的運營商，正在持續購買卡車。他們希望保持車隊車齡合理，因此會繼續購買卡車，並保持這種模式。

And then they're managing that against the fact that contract rates and spot rates are lower than they were and trying to maintain that balance of fleet age with capital spending. And we think that's going to continue. We think that there's an emissions change in 2027 and that the sophisticated buyers are conscious of that and take that into consideration as they make their purchase plans. And that will have an increasing effect as we move forward.

他們也要應付合約價格和現貨價格低於以往的現實，努力維持船隊年齡與資本支出之間的平衡。我們認為這種情況還會持續下去。我們認為2027年排放標準將會發生變化，而精明的買家已經意識到這一點，並在製定採購計劃時將其納入考慮。隨著時間的推移，這種影響將會越來越大。

But just to be clear on timing, do you think some of that desire to buy in front of that would show up in orders in '24 at all? Or is that a little premature?

但為了明確時間點，您認為這種提前購買的意願會在 2024 年的訂單中有所體現嗎？還是現在下結論還太早？

I think it's fleet dependent. I think it depends on where they're at and what they're hauling and I think how they're doing and how many trucks they need in their fleet. So I think generalizing that into '24 might be a little much but the premise of your conversation or our conversation about does that feature into the -- later this year or next year or the year after? I think there's some truth in that. I think we see positive benefit from that.

我認為這取決於車隊的具體情況。這取決於他們所在的地區、運輸的貨物種類、營運狀況以及車隊所需的卡車數量。所以，把這種情況概括到2024年可能有點誇張，但你或我們剛才討論的這個前提——即這種情況是否會在今年晚些時候、明年或後年出現——我認為是有一定道理的。我認為我們能從中看到積極的益處。

Our next question today is from Jeff Kauffman from Vertical Research Partners.

今天我們提出的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Kauffman。

Well, first of all, congratulations, fantastic year.

首先，恭喜你，這是精彩的一年。

Jeff, thank you for that. Our team appreciates it.

傑夫，謝謝你。我們團隊非常感謝。

You guys crushed it. I want to ask about 2 kind of oddities, if I can. I don't want to focus on the tail wagging the dog but I think they're relevant questions. The first has to do with what's going on with electric vehicles right now. And it seemed like there was this big push for EV and you're still seeing that in some of the lighter duty models but a little bit of a pullback on the heavy side. But we are moving forward with the EV plan for batteries and we're moving forward with investment.

你們做得太棒了！我想問兩個比較奇怪的問題，如果可以的話。我不想離題，但我覺得這兩個問題很重要。第一個問題是關於目前電動車的發展。之前似乎大力推廣電動車，現在在一些輕型車型上仍然可以看到這種趨勢，但在重型車型上則有所放緩。不過，我們在電池方面的電動車計畫仍在推進，我們也持續加大投資。

What is your feeling about the state of the EV market? And is this a surprise at all? Is this expected? How should we be thinking about framing EV demand for commercial vehicles? .

您對電動車市場的現況有何看法？這是否出乎您的意料？還是在意料之中？我們該如何看待商用車對電動車的需求？

Jeff, I think you nailed it. Actually, I think that there was maybe a lot of enthusiasm, maybe too much enthusiasm. I think it's something that is going to happen. It's going to happen gradually rather than rapidly. There's a lot of things that have to come along with it, energy and infrastructure from a PACCAR standpoint. It's been our approach all along. As we've shared with you over the years, it's right. We'd start in the 10s, move to the hundreds, go to the thousands, that's the progression we're in. We continue to make prudent investments that will be timed to what we think the adoption rates are going to be. We felt in 2023 was the right time to make sure that looking into the future, we could begin the journey of creating our own batteries. So that we had the most cost-efficient, high-performing batteries when the time was right.

傑夫，我覺得你說得太對了。實際上，我認為之前可能熱情過高，甚至有點過頭了。我認為這是必然趨勢，但會循序漸進，而非迅速發展。從帕卡集團的角度來看，這其中涉及許多方面，例如能源和基礎設施。這始終是我們採取的策略。正如我們多年來與你們分享的那樣，這種策略是正確的。我們會從十幾顆電池開始，逐步擴展到幾百塊，再到幾千塊，這就是我們目前的進展。我們會繼續進行審慎的投資，並根據我們對市場接受度的預期進行調整。我們認為2023年是適當的時機，展望未來，確保我們能夠開始自主研發電池。這樣，在時機成熟時，我們就能擁有最具成本效益、效能卓越的電池。

So I think as we talked about in the last call, building a battery cell factory in a joint venture manner will give us sufficient volume to supply our needs throughout the rest of the decade as we gradually adopt. And it puts PACCAR in a really good position to offer our customers the best products they can get when they're looking for EVs and keep up with the regulatory and also take a thoughtful approach to the adoption.

所以我認為，正如我們在上次電話會議中討論的那樣，以合資方式建造電池工廠將為我們提供足夠的產能，以滿足我們在未來十年逐步採用電動車過程中的需求。這將使帕卡公司處於非常有利的地位，能夠為尋求電動車的客戶提供他們所能獲得的最佳產品，同時滿足監管要求，並採取周全的推廣策略。

And then the second one, I'm expecting kind of a no comment on this one but I'm going to ask anyway. The last time we had a certain Republican President, there were some EPA mandates that ended up being canceled and rolled back and who knows what the future holds. But I think there's a industry think that there is a certainty about a massive 2026 prebuy. And I think everyone is kind of thinking about that. I know it was part of David Raso's question earlier.

第二個問題，我估計對方不會對此置評，但我還是想問一下。上次某位共和黨總統執政時，環保署的一些強制規定最終被取消或撤銷，未來會怎樣誰也說不準。但我認為業內人士普遍認為，2026年大規模的預購是必然的。而且我覺得大家都在想這個問題。我知道之前大衛·拉索也問過類似的問題。

Do your political people think there's any risk if there's a Republican victory and we get a certain presidential candidate back that any of these EPA mandates might be at risk or CARB mandates might be at risk?

你們的政治圈認為，如果共和黨獲勝，某個特定的總統候選人再次當選，那麼美國環保署（EPA）或加州空氣資源委員會（CARB）的任何強制性規定是否會面臨風險？

Jeff, I think you nailed it. We have no comment on that. All I can say is that -- we feel really good about PACCAR either way.

傑夫，我覺得你說得對。對此我們無可奉告。我只能說——無論如何，我們對帕卡集團都充滿信心。

Exactly. We're going to drive the road we see in front of us. I get it.

沒錯。我們要沿著眼前的路開。我明白了。

Our next question today is from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs.

我們今天的下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

I'm wondering if you could just talk about the record gross margin performance you folks had in '23, was despite really significant supply chain disruptions continuing. Can you talk about just directionally where your labor hours per unit today versus their targets? And is there a potential for things like factory overhead expense, et cetera, to turn to be a tailwind on a year-over-year basis as surety of deliveries ramp up and maybe productivity ramps up?

我想請您談談貴公司在2023年創紀錄的毛利率表現，尤其是在供應鏈持續受到嚴重干擾的情況下。能否簡單說明一下，目前貴公司每單位產品的人工工時與目標相比如何？隨著交貨保障的提高和生產效率的提升，工廠管理費用等因素是否有可能逐年轉化為利多因素？

Yes. It's a fun conversation to have with you. I think first of all, our hats off to the supply base. They've done a really good job of trying to work through the challenges. And I think as you note, things have become improved, maybe not perfect but improved, which is good. We're used to that.

是的，跟你聊這個很有意思。首先，我們要向供應鏈致敬。他們為了克服挑戰做得非常好。正如你所說，情況已經有所改善，或許還不夠完美，但確實有所進步，這是好事。我們已經習慣了。

And I think as we look at it, smoother factories are more efficient factories. And so as we look into '24, if we have a smoother supply provided to the factories, we will have benefits in that regard. So it could be a tailwind as you word it.

我認為，從長遠來看，工廠運作更順暢，效率就更高。因此，展望2024年，如果我們能為工廠提供更順暢的供應，我們將在這方面受益。正如你所說，這可能是個有利因素。

Very interesting. And another area where you folks have worked through even as you put up record margins is higher warranty costs because of higher per repair cost trends, can you talk about whether you expect to return to that 1.5% warranty accrual rate in '24? Or are there still things that you're working on in terms of per-unit repair costs or other moving pieces in the warranty provisions?

非常有趣。你們在取得創紀錄利潤率的同時，也一直在努力解決保固成本上升的問題，因為單次維修成本呈現上升趨勢。請問你們預計2024年保固計提率能否恢復到1.5%？或者說，你們在降低單次維修成本或其他保固條款方面是否還有其他需要改進的地方？

Well, I can say that we have a great group of analysts who understand our business well because I think that your question is salient and is true. Like we've seen increasing truck complexity over the decades as an industry, with more electronics on them, that contributes to more opportunities. But we do think that the trucks are performing well and we'll be in that kind of normal range again.

嗯，我可以肯定地說，我們擁有一支非常優秀的分析師團隊，他們對我們的業務非常了解。因為我認為您的問題切中要害，而且確實如此。就像我們過去幾十年看到的，卡車行業整體的複雜性不斷增加，電子設備越來越多，這帶來了更多機會。但我們認為卡車目前的表現良好，價格也將再次回到正常水平。

Okay. Super. And lastly, on parts, really strong performance in the fourth quarter and the outlook for the first quarter is certainly higher than what we had in our model and what we're seeing for other companies.

好的。太好了。最後，關於零件，第四季度表現非常強勁，第一季的預期肯定高於我們模型中的預測以及我們看到的其他公司的預期。

Can you just touch on how you folks have managed the parts delivery time frame in the first quarter of '23 because I think for most companies, the first quarter is going to be a really tough comp that saw inventory stocking in the first quarter of '23. It doesn't sound like you folks have faced that but can you just spend a minute just addressing how you folks were able to avoid stocking in the first quarter of last year?

您能否簡要談談貴公司在2023年第一季是如何管理零件交付時間的？因為我認為對大多數公司來說，第一季會是一個非常艱難的比較期，因為去年第一季通常都會出現庫存積壓的情況。聽起來貴公司並沒有遇到這種情況，您能否花一點時間談談貴公司是如何避免去年第一季出現庫存積壓的？

So you're spot on, Jerry. We've -- 3% to 5% growth this quarter compared to the record quarter last year, is a nice performance. It reflects, really reflects all the fantastic things our parts team is doing. They're focusing on technology that makes it easy to the buy from us, the e-commerce technology, the MDI, where we manage the dealer's inventory and make sure the parts are available when needed. Our continuous investments in parts distribution centers. The strong performance of the PACCAR engine that provide us more proprietary parts. So it just all adds up and we've been seeing some nice trends on parts over the years as a result of these and we expect those to continue into this year.

傑瑞，你說得完全正確。與去年同期創紀錄的成長相比，本季我們實現了3%到5%的成長，這是一個不錯的成績。這充分體現了我們零件團隊的出色工作。他們專注於讓客戶更容易向我們購買零件的技術，例如電子商務技術和MDI系統。 MDI系統用於管理經銷商的庫存，確保零件在需要時能夠及時供應。此外，我們也持續投資於零件配送中心。 PACCAR引擎的強勁表現也為我們提供了更多專有零件。所有這些因素共同作用，使得我們多年來在零件領域看到了良好的發展趨勢，我們預計這種趨勢將在今年繼續保持。

Our next question is from Steven Fisher from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

Just as we think about 2024, how much visibility do you have on the truck outlook? Like how well are you booked into Q1 and Q2. I imagine Q1 is pretty solidly booked and maybe even Q2 at this point but curious also about the second half. And what are your customers kind of telling you about later in the year?

展望2024年，您對卡車運輸市場的前景有多大了解？例如，您第一季和第二季的訂單安排如何？我估計第一季的訂單應該相當充足，第二季可能也已經排滿了，但我也很好奇下半年的情況。您的客戶對今年稍後的訂單有什麼看法？

Yes, as you know, Q1 is effectively full and Q2 is filling in very nicely. As we look out, there's obviously customers -- lots of customers buy full year with spread delivery. So we see some growing backlog in the second half as well and things feel pretty healthy.

是的，如您所知，第一季的訂單基本上已滿，第二季的訂單也正在穩步增長。展望未來，顯然有很多客戶——許多客戶選擇全年供貨並分期付款。因此，我們預計下半年的訂單積壓也會增加，整體情況相當健康。

Okay. Great. And then can you talk about the cost inflation that you're seeing, both on the direct and the indirect side. Is it safe to assume that, that maybe in line with the overall inflation in the economy, maybe you still have some puts and takes in various directions but it kind of nets out to the overall level of inflation in the economy.

好的，太好了。那麼，您能否談談您觀察到的成本通膨，包括直接成本和間接成本？我們可以這樣假設嗎？雖然可能存在一些波動，但總體而言，成本通膨水準與經濟整體通膨水準基本一致。

And then if that's the case, is the pricing strategy to sort of just cover those costs? Or do you have maybe some additional cost reduction programs aimed at sort of trying to preserve margins in 2024? I know you always have some efficiency things that you have going on but I'm curious if this is a year to sort of step up the cost reductions if you're only able to cover inflation with your pricing.

如果是這樣，那麼定價策略是否只是為了彌補這些成本？或者你們是否有其他旨在維持2024年利潤率的成本削減計劃？我知道你們一直在推行一些提高效率的措施，但我很好奇，如果你們只能透過定價來應對通貨膨脹，那麼今年是否會加大成本削減的力度？

I think inflationary, we're experiencing the same things as most people are with inflation, as it's moderated some and we do see inflationary costs. And obviously, we try to acknowledge that in our pricing and we do focus on reducing cost on the product, that's a continuous thing we do. And our teams are fully focused on it and I think going to do a good job on it this year.

我認為通膨確實存在，我們和大多數人一樣，都面臨著通膨帶來的影響，雖然通膨有所緩和，但我們也確實看到了通膨帶來的成本上漲。顯然，我們在定價時會考慮到這一點，並且一直致力於降低產品成本，這是我們持續努力的方向。我們的團隊正全力以赴地投入其中，我相信今年我們會在這方面取得不錯的成績。

Our next question is from Tim Thein from Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的提姆·泰恩。

Just one for me and it's just on the truck business and specifically on mix. And there was one asked earlier about geographic mix.

我只有一個問題，是關於卡車運輸業務，特別是貨物組合方面的。之前也有人問過關於地域組合的問題。

But I'm curious about from the standpoint of kind of product and customer from an environment where you're selling more straight trucks which is probably additive but also medium duty and sleepers. If that -- those become a bigger percentage of the deliveries relative to the sleepers, is there a -- is there much of a -- should we think about that as being accretive, headwind to margin neutral? Any comment on that?

但我很好奇，從產品和客戶的角度來看，在你們銷售更多廂式貨車（這可能是一種增益）以及中型貨車和臥舖貨車的情況下，如果這些貨車在交付總量中所佔比例相對於臥舖貨車而言更大，我們是否應該認為這會對利潤率產生增益，還是會產生中性影響？對此您有什麼看法？

And then I guess just, I guess, part B of that is from a customer standpoint, if you have a dynamic where your larger carriers are representing more of the order board in '24. How too does that -- should we think about that -- presumably more of a headwind but any way to kind of think about those 2 factors?

然後，我想，B 部分是從客戶的角度來看的，如果大型承運商在 2024 年的訂單中佔據更多份額，這又會如何呢？ ——我們應該考慮這一點嗎？ ——這大概會是更大的阻力，但有沒有辦法考慮這兩個因素呢？

Tim, what I think is going on is, we're seeing that over the last couple of years, we've probably been, as an industry not able to supply everyone the trucks they needed. And I think that there's a strong vocational market, a strong LTL market, a strong medium-duty market. So we're now kind of able to build those trucks and we're seeing that as a different percentage and increased percentage in our backlog.

提姆，我認為目前的情況是，在過去幾年裡，我們整個產業可能無法滿足所有人的卡車需求。我認為，目前專用卡車市場、零擔貨運市場和中型卡車市場都非常強勁。所以現在我們有能力生產這些卡車，我們也看到積壓訂單中相應比例增加。

I wouldn't differentiate them in margin. They can both be good margin products for us. On a percentage basis, yes. And then I think that as far as the larger carriers and the impact of it, I think that it's really not that different than many years, right? It's not substantially different. So we don't see anything dramatically affecting our model. We've had some of the biggest carriers ordering a lot of trucks and we've had some small carriers ordering trucks. But it's all kind of within the normal boundary.

我不會在利潤率上區分它們。它們對我們來說都是利潤率不錯的產品。從百分比來看，確實如此。至於大型運輸公司及其影響，我認為與往年相比並沒有太大變化，對吧？沒有實質的變化。所以我們預期不會有任何因素對我們的模式產生重大影響。一些大型運輸公司訂購了大量卡車，一些小型運輸公司也訂購了卡車。但這一切都在正常範圍內。

Our next question today is from Matt Elkott from TD Cowen.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 公司的 Matt Elkott。

If I can go back to the order question, the demand question, it seems you guys continue to see stronger demand and stronger orders in North America than the industry orders we see on a monthly basis. Is this still primarily a function of your higher vocational mix? Or are you gaining tractions in other areas that were not super aware of?

回到訂單問題，也就是需求問題，你們似乎在北美地區持續看到比我們每月看到的行業平均訂單量更強勁的需求和訂單量。這主要還是因為你們的職業教育比例較高嗎？還是說你們在其他我們不太了解的領域也取得了進展？

We are the vocational market leader. So there is some benefit in that. And as I mentioned too, I think our teams have done a great job over the last several years developing a new product lineup, which is the newest in the industry, which is helpful to us and I think has given us good backlog. If you think about it, at the fundamental level, we tied up in a lot of different things. But at the fundamental level, our goal is to build great trucks for our customers to provide them the lowest total cost of ownership. And when they do that, then they order the trucks. And we think we're doing that well. The products are performing well. They're the best in the industry and that's contributing to our order visibility.

我們是商用車市場的領導者，這為我們帶來了一定的優勢。正如我之前提到的，我認為我們的團隊在過去幾年裡開發了全新的產品線，這在業界是最新的，對我們大有裨益，也為我們帶來了良好的訂單儲備。仔細想想，從根本上講，我們涉足了許多不同的領域。但從根本上講，我們的目標是為客戶打造卓越的卡車，從而為他們提供最低的整體擁有成本。當客戶認可我們的產品時，他們就會下單訂購。我們認為我們在這方面做得很好。產品性能優異，是業界最佳產品，這也有助於提高我們的訂單可見度。

And just one follow-up question. As we look into a mild decline in production this year, do you think you'll do more vertical integration of engines to kind of cut costs? Or is that something that is independent of the cycle?

還有一個後續問題。考慮到今年產量可能會略有下降，您認為公司會加大引擎垂直整合的力度來降低成本嗎？還是說這跟經濟週期無關？

Yes. With the -- we've built a record number of trucks last year. MX engines that is for North America, Europe worldwide, I would say. Yes and the investments that we've been continuing to make in our engine manufacturing capacity. We -- that will help us to grow engine penetration in North America this year. That's very good position to grow that percentage this year.

是的。去年我們生產了創紀錄數量的卡車。 MX引擎主要銷往北美、歐洲和全球各地。是的，而且我們一直持續投資提升引擎產能。這將有助於我們今年提高引擎在北美的市場滲透率。我們今年可望大幅提升這一比例。

Our next question is from Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

So you talked about used prices normalizing in Q4. I'm just curious your outlook for used prices from here, if you think we're bottoming yet or if you think there's further risk on used.

您剛才提到二手車價格將在第四季恢復正常。我很好奇您對二手車價格未來走勢的看法，您認為價格是否已經觸底，還是說二手車市場仍有風險。

Harrie, do you have any thoughts on that?

哈里，你對此有什麼看法？

Used truck prices did come down in North America and Europe during the year. Right now, I think in the fourth quarter, North America came down low single digit. And we do see some stabilization happening at these levels. That's why we expect things to continue at a normal level that where used trucks are maybe at breakeven, that kind of level. That's a reasonable projection, I think.

今年北美和歐洲的二手卡車價格確實有所下降。目前來看，第四季北美地區的降幅已達到個位數。我們看到價格正在趨於穩定。因此，我們預期二手卡車價格將繼續維持在正常水平，可能達到損益平衡點附近。我認為這是一個合理的預測。

The only thing I'll add is that volumes continue to be good in that space as well. So we watch both price and volume and it seems like it's a big change from what it was but it's still not at a bad level.

我唯一要補充的是，該領域的成交量也依然良好。所以我們同時關注價格和成交量，雖然與之前相比有了較大變化，但總體水平還算不錯。

It's more normal now.

現在這種情況比較正常了。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And then just more theoretical on this sort of record gross margin, price/cost spread. I totally understand when you guys are saying with new products but it also just strikes me, this is a pretty consolidated market. And in an environment like we've seen in the last couple of years with heightened inflation, is it just that maybe you and others just got enlightened to the fact that you maybe had more pricing power than maybe you previously thought? Is that right? Is that what's happening? And ultimately, is that -- do you think that's sustainable? Is this ultimately just a new range of gross margin?

好的。接下來，我想更深入探討這種創紀錄的毛利率和價格成本差。我完全理解你們說的新產品帶來的挑戰，但同時我也覺得，這是一個高度集中的市場。在過去幾年通膨加劇的環境下，是不是你們和其他人突然意識到，你們的定價權可能比之前想像的還要大？是這樣嗎？情況就是這樣嗎？最終，你們認為這種情況能夠持續下去嗎？這最終會不會只是毛利率達到一個新的水平？

My view is that the team of PACCAR people around the world, whether in the factories or the engineers or the controllers, organizations over the last several years have done a fantastic job of building a really robust business. And it's lean, it's efficient and it produces great products for our customers. And I think that's the driving force between the margins that were generated as parts business, it's the truck business. That strength and focus of serving our customers and our shareholders are working really well.

我認為，在過去幾年裡，PACCAR全球各地的員工，無論是在工廠、工程師或財務部門，都出色地打造了一個真正穩健的業務。這個業務精簡高效，並為我們的客戶生產優質產品。我認為，正是這種業務優勢，使得我們從零件業務轉向了卡車業務。這種以服務客戶和股東為核心的優勢和專注精神，正在發揮非常積極的作用。

So in your mind, the high teens is the new sort of normal?

所以你認為十幾歲的高齡是新的常態？

Well, what we shared with you is, the first quarter we think is 18.5% to 19%. And that's pretty darn good.

我們之前告訴大家的是，我們認為第一季的成長率為18.5%到19%。這相當不錯。

Yes, for sure.

是的，當然。

Our next question is from Michael Feniger from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的麥可費尼格。

Obviously, the pricing in 2023 was very impressive. I know you talked a little bit about the used market. I'm curious when we look at the spread between your price increases for 2024 relative to what you're seeing in the used market with trade-ins, was that spread widening? Just any commentary that you're seeing in the used market that kind of informs 2024? Because obviously, the used market was very strong few years ago. It seems like there's some cooling. But I'm just curious how we think about that spread between the new pricing they use and how to kind of think about that for 2024.

顯然，2023年的定價非常令人印象深刻。我知道您之前談到了一些二手車市場的情況。我很好奇，當我們比較2024年新車價格上漲幅度與二手車市場（包括置換車輛）價格時，這個價差是否正在擴大？您在二手車市場觀察到的哪些情況會影響2024年的定價？因為很明顯，幾年前二手車市場非常強勁，但現在似乎有所降溫。我只是好奇，我們該如何看待新車定價與2024年二手車價格之間的價差。

Well, I think what's -- maybe one of the things you could throw into your factors of consideration is the fact that in those high point markets where contract rates were at all-time high, spot rates were at all-time high, some people got into the trucking business and some of those people are getting out and that's contributing to the spread between new and used pricing, as you have -- some of those people exiting the market is normalizing the used truck pricing. So I think there is a bit of a larger differential between new and used and I think that will reset itself over time.

嗯，我認為——或許你可以把這一點納入考慮因素——那就是在那些市場行情高漲、合約價格和現貨價格都達到歷史最高水平的時候，一些人進入了卡車運輸行業，而這些人中又有一些正在退出，這導致了新車和二手車價格之間的差距擴大，正如你所說——一些人退出市場正在使二手卡車的價格趨化。所以我認為新車和二手車之間的價格差異目前比較大，但我認為隨著時間的推移，這種差異會逐漸縮小。

And just to follow up. Another different customers in the transportation market who buy your trucks, you put up excellent truck deliveries in 2023 at a time where spot freight rates were actually falling. And now that we see spot freight rates potentially bottoming and maybe picking up through 2024, how do we kind of think about what happened in 2023 and how that might potentially play out in 2024 and how that kind of translates to demand for your trucks?

最後再補充一點。運輸市場中還有另一批客戶購買了你們的卡車，你們在2023年交付卡車的業績非常出色，而當時的現貨運費實際上正在下降。現在我們看到現貨運費可能已經觸底，並在2024年有所回升，那麼我們該如何看待2023年的情況，以及這些情況可能會如何影響2024年，最終又會如何影響對你們卡車的需求呢？

Well, one of the underlying contemplation should be that what's the economy doing? And as we noted in our commentary, we see economic growth in 2024, which we think, as the most fundamental principles should be good for the truck market, especially as we continue through the year. And you put that economic growth against that spot rate bottoming that you talked about and it should set us up for a good year in 2024.

首先，我們應該考慮的經濟情勢如何？正如我們在評論中提到的，我們預計2024年經濟將實現成長，我們認為，從最基本的層面來看，這對卡車市場來說是利好消息，尤其是在今年經濟持續成長的情況下。再加上您提到的現貨價格觸底反彈，這將為2024年帶來良好的市場前景。

Our next question is from Guillermo Herrera from Gabelli Funds.

下一個問題來自 Gabelli Funds 的 Guillermo Herrera。

So maybe more of a high-level one here than the ones we've been talking through so far. But -- you've been doing a great job generating cash and there's a sizable cash position on the balance sheet right now. I'm curious, aside from dividend payouts, how should we think about how you might deploy some of that cash?

所以，這可能比我們之前討論的那些問題更宏觀一些。你們在創造現金流方面做得非常出色，目前資產負債表上現金儲備相當可觀。我很好奇，除了支付股息之外，我們該如何考慮你們會如何運用這些現金？

And maybe just to get a little bit more specific here, could you provide us sort of any commentary on the M&A space and whether longer term, you might be considering inorganic growth as part of the growth story.

或許我們可以更具體地談談，您能否對併購領域發表一些評論，以及從長遠來看，您是否會將非內生成長作為成長策略的一部分？

Sure thing. We're really pleased with how the company has performed financially. We have a strong history of dividend payouts of around 50% of net income. We continue to do that. We noted in our comments, record dividend payouts in 2023. We think our shareholders are happy with that approach. We'll continue to do that. We do have uses for cash. Obviously, we are doing this joint venture, which will be something we fund out of cash. PACCAR has got a long history of making strategic acquisitions when they make sense and we continue to make those evaluations at all times. And having the cash gives us that flexibility to build an even more robust company as we move forward into the future.

當然可以。我們對公司的財務表現非常滿意。我們一直以來都保持著淨利潤約50%的股息支付率，並且我們將繼續這樣做。我們在先前的評論中提到，2023年的股息支付將創歷史新高。我們相信股東們對這種做法感到滿意。我們將繼續這樣做。我們確實有現金用途。顯然，我們正在進行一項合資項目，該項目將由現金提供資金。 PACCAR在進行策略性收購方面有著悠久的歷史，我們會在適當的時機進行收購，並且我們會持續進行此類評估。擁有充足的現金使我們能夠靈活地打造更強大的公司，並在未來不斷成長。

Our last question today is from Daniel Johansson from Pan Advisors. Daniel, please can you check if you unmuted lately.

今天最後一個問題來自 Pan Advisors 的 Daniel Johansson。 Daniel，請問你最近是否解除了靜音狀態？

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes, we can, Daniel.

是的，我們可以，丹尼爾。

Sorry, maybe this has already been discussed. And I guess the question is, has a lot of different levels to think about. But thinking about your cost per unit and how that has been going up a little bit here over the last few years? I mean, there's mix, there is more content per unit, et cetera, et cetera. But how to think about that going forward? And especially so given that you had pretty high capacity utilization last year.

抱歉，這個問題可能之前已經討論過了。我想說的是，這個問題牽涉到很多層面。例如，你們的單位成本，以及過去幾年它略有上升的情況。我的意思是，產品組合多樣化，單位產品的內容更多等等。但未來該如何看待這個問題呢？尤其考慮到你們去年的產能利用率相當高。

Well, I think about costs in terms of -- there's the normal inflationary side of it. I think the other side of it to contemplate is, we're building trucks that are more efficient than they ever have been for our customers. Sometimes that efficiency comes with higher purchase price but as a percentage of their total operating costs, the purchase price is not significant compared to the fuel utilization. So it's beneficial to PACCAR in that way and beneficial to our customers to have high-performing products that are very efficient even if that drives up purchase price.

嗯，我考慮成本的時候會想到兩點──首先是正常的通貨膨脹因素。我認為需要考慮的另一點是，我們正在為客戶打造比以往任何時候都更有效率的卡車。有時，這種效率的提升意味著更高的購置價格，但相對於燃油效率的提高，購置價格佔總營運成本的比例並不高。因此，即使高性能、高效率的產品會推高購買價格，這對帕卡公司和我們的客戶來說都是有利的。

And then another element to that is, of course, regulatory. As you anticipate future regulatory changes, those typically come with added componentry to meet emission standards, which is also a factor in increasing cost and price. So those are some of the things that go into that cost equation for us. And we've seen price more than keep up with that.

當然，監理也是一個重要因素。隨著未來監管政策的變化，通常需要增加組件以滿足排放標準，這也會導致成本和價格上漲。這些都是影響我們成本的因素。而且我們發現，價格上漲的速度遠遠超過成本上漲的速度。

And should we expect cost per unit to continue to go up, you think, even in a very good volume scenario?

您認為即使在銷售量非常好的情況下，我們是否也應該預期單位成本會繼續上漲？

I think they could. It depends on the inflationary state. It depends on the state of competition and whether there's more added content that has to be added to the trucks.

我認為他們可以。這取決於通貨膨脹狀況、市場競爭狀況，以及卡車是否需要增加更多附加組件。

Thank you. This is the end of the Q&A session. So I'd now like to hand back for any further or closing remarks.

謝謝。問答環節到此結束。現在我想把時間交還給各位，請問還有什麼要補充或總結發言嗎？

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call and thank you, operator.

感謝各位參與通話，也謝謝接線生。

Thank you, everyone, for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines and have a lovely day.

感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。現在您可以掛斷電話了，祝您有美好的一天。