帕卡 (PCAR) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to PACCAR's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the call over to Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）今天的通話正在錄音。 （操作員指示）我現在想將電話轉給 PACCAR 投資者關係總監 Ken Hastings 先生。黑斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Brice Poplawski, Vice President and Controller.

早安.我們歡迎那些透過電話和網路廣播收聽的人。我叫肯‧黑斯廷斯 (Ken Hastings)，是 PACCAR 投資者關係總監。今天早上和我一起的還有執行長 Preston Feight； Harrie Schippers，總裁兼財務長；以及副總裁兼財務長 Brice Poplawski。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the Investor Relations page of PACCAR.

與先前的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有線上媒體成員都參與僅聽模式。今天提供的某些資訊將具有前瞻性，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的總體經濟和競爭狀況。如需了解更多信息，請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件和 PACCAR 的投資者關係頁面。

I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

現在我想介紹一下普雷斯頓費特。

Good morning. Harrie, Brice, Ken and I will update you on a record third quarter financial results and other business highlights.

早安.哈利、布里斯、肯和我將向您介紹創紀錄的第三季財務業績和其他業務亮點。

PACCAR's outstanding employees delivered this excellent performance by providing our customers with the highest quality trucks and transportation solutions in the industry. PACCAR's third quarter net income increased 60% year-over-year to a record $1.23 billion and revenues increased 23% to $8.7 billion. Truck, Parts and Other gross margins expanded to 19.5% in the third quarter compared to 14.9% in the same period last year. PACCAR's global investments in innovative new DAF, Kenworth and Peterbilt trucks, as well as investments in technology and manufacturing were key elements in delivering this strong performance.

佩卡的優秀員工透過為我們的客戶提供業內最優質的卡車和運輸解決方案來實現這一卓越的業績。 PACCAR第三季淨利年增60%，達到創紀錄的12.3億美元，營收成長23%，達到87億美元。第三季卡車、零件和其他毛利率擴大至 19.5%，而去年同期為 14.9%。佩卡對創新型新型 DAF、Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 卡車的全球投資以及對技術和製造的投資是實現這一強勁業績的關鍵因素。

PACCAR Parts third quarter revenues increased to $1.58 billion. Parts pretax profits were $412 million or 10% higher than the same period last year. PACCAR Parts provides its customers with industry-leading technology that enhances their uptime.

PACCAR Parts 第三季營收增至 15.8 億美元。零件稅前利潤為 4.12 億美元，比去年同期高出 10%。 PACCAR Parts 為其客戶提供業界領先的技術，以延長他們的正常運作時間。

PACCAR Financial earned a strong pretax income of $134 million in the third quarter, reflecting its high-quality portfolio. We estimate this year's U.S. and Canadian Class 8 market to be in a range of 295,000 to 315,000 trucks and next year to be in a range of 260,000 to 300,000 vehicles. Customers are replacing their trucks with the new heavy and medium-duty Peterbilt and Kenworth models that enhance their operational efficiencies, achieve industry-leading fuel economy and attract and retain the best drivers.

PACCAR Financial 第三季實現了 1.34 億美元的強勁稅前收入，反映了其高品質的投資組合。我們預計，今年美國和加拿大 8 級卡車市場的銷量將在 295,000 至 315,000 輛之間，明年將在 260,000 至 300,000 輛之間。客戶正在用新型重型和中型 Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 車型更換卡車，這些車型可提高營運效率、實現領先業界的燃油經濟性並吸引和留住最優秀的駕駛員。

Demand is strong for Kenworth and Peterbilt trucks with the first quarter of 2024 filling in quickly. In Europe, this year's truck industry registrations in the above 16-tonne segment are estimated to be in a range of 310,000 to 330,000 vehicles. The 2024 market is expected to be in the range of 260,000 to 300,000 trucks. The new DAF trucks have redefined the premium truck segment in Europe and offer superior aerodynamics, award-winning fuel economy and enhanced features that make them the driver's choice.

隨著 2024 年第一季的快速填滿，Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 卡車的需求強勁。在歐洲，今年16噸級以上卡車產業的註冊量預計在31萬至33萬輛之間。預計 2024 年卡車市場規模將在 26 萬至 30 萬輛之間。新型 DAF 卡車重新定義了歐洲的高級卡車市場，並提供卓越的空氣動力學性能、屢獲殊榮的燃油經濟性和增強的功能，使其成為駕駛員的選擇。

The South American above 16-tonne market is projected to be in a range of 105,000 to 115,000 trucks this year and in a similar range next year. DAF Brazil recently celebrated its 10th anniversary and has increased its greater than 16-tonne share to a record 10%. The DAF lineup of trucks is performing exceptionally well for customers in all Brazilian operating environments.

南美 16 噸以上市場預計今年的卡車數量將在 105,000 至 115,000 輛之間，明年也將保持在類似的範圍內。 DAF Brazil 最近慶祝了成立 10 週年，並將其超過 16 噸的份額增加至創紀錄的 10%。 DAF 卡車系列在巴西所有營運環境中都為客戶提供了出色的性能。

PACCAR recently announced its participation in a new battery cell joint venture. The joint venture will be located in the United States and will manufacture battery cells for use in medium and heavy-duty trucks. PACCAR's proprietary battery cells will create value for our customers and help them achieve their future operational and environmental goals.

PACCAR 最近宣布參與一家新的電池合資企業。該合資企業將位於美國，生產用於中型和重型卡車的電池。佩卡的專有電池將為我們的客戶創造價值，並幫助他們實現未來的營運和環境目標。

PACCAR's employees and dealers are delivering excellent results for our customers and we're excited about the future. Thank you.

佩卡的員工和經銷商正在為我們的客戶提供卓越的成果，我們對未來感到興奮。謝謝。

Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial Services and other business highlights.

Harrie Schippers 現在將提供有關 PACCAR 零件、PACCAR 金融服務和其他業務亮點的最新資訊。

Thanks, Preston. PACCAR delivered 50,100 trucks during the third quarter. We estimate fourth quarter deliveries to be similar and in the range of 48,000 to 51,000 trucks. More production days in the fourth quarter in Europe will be offset by fewer production days due to holidays in North America. The supply base is improving but continues to limit production. Truck, Parts and Other gross margins increased to 19.5% in the third quarter. We anticipate fourth quarter gross margins to be around 19%, reflecting the strong performance of our new truck models and PACCAR Parts.

謝謝，普雷斯頓。 PACCAR 第三季交付了 50,100 輛卡車。我們預計第四季度的卡車交付量與此類似，在 48,000 至 51,000 輛之間。歐洲第四季生產天數增加將被北美假期減少的生產天數所抵銷。供應基礎正在改善，但產量仍持續受到限制。第三季卡車、零件和其他毛利率增加至19.5%。我們預計第四季毛利率約為 19%，這反映出我們新卡車車型和 PACCAR 零件的強勁表現。

PACCAR Parts delivered third quarter gross margins of 31.5%. PACCAR Parts' innovative programs such as Advanced Fleet Management Services and Predictive Dealer Inventory Management, helped customers increase vehicle uptime and their financial performance. For the fourth quarter, we expect part sales to be 7% to 9% higher than in the same period of last year.

PACCAR Parts 第三季毛利率為 31.5%。 PACCAR Parts 的創新計劃（例如高級車隊管理服務和預測性經銷商庫存管理）幫助客戶增加了車輛正常運行時間和財務績效。對於第四季度，我們預期零件銷售額將比去年同期成長7%至9%。

PACCAR Financial Services results in the third quarter benefited from excellent portfolio quality and positive used truck results. Pretax income was $134 million. PACCAR Financial is the market leader supporting the superior Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF products with innovative technologies and a strong global used truck network. In the last 2 years, DAF, Kenworth and Peterbilt have introduced more new truck models than at any comparable time in the company's history. The pace of these introductions continues with a new flagship Peterbilt's Model 589 that begins production in the first quarter of 2024.

佩卡金融服務公司第三季的業績得益於出色的投資組合品質和積極的二手卡車業績。稅前收入為 1.34 億美元。 PACCAR Financial 是市場領導者，透過創新技術和強大的全球二手卡車網路為 Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 的優質產品提供支援。在過去兩年中，DAF、Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 推出的新卡車型號比公司歷史上任何時期都多。 Peterbilt 的新旗艦車型 589 將於 2024 年第一季開始生產，這些推出的步伐仍在繼續。

PACCAR's capital investments in new and expanded facilities, innovative products and new technologies, have created the highest performing trucks and transportation solutions in the industry and will contribute to excellent financial returns for many years. PACCAR's return on invested capital further improved to an industry-leading 35% in the first 9 months of this year. This year's capital expenditures are projected to be between $650 million and $675 million and will increase to $675 million to $725 million next year.

佩卡對新建和擴建設施、創新產品和新技術的資本投資創造了業內性能最高的卡車和運輸解決方案，並將在多年內為卓越的財務回報做出貢獻。今年前9個月，PACCAR的投資資本報酬率進一步提高至業界領先的35%。今年的資本支出預計在6.5億至6.75億美元之間，明年將增加至6.75億至7.25億美元。

Research and development expenses will be $410 million to $420 million this year and increase to between $470 million and $520 million next year. In addition to the capital and R&D investments, the company will own a 30% share in the battery cell joint venture and expects to invest $600 million to $900 million over the coming 3 years.

今年的研發費用將為4.1億至4.2億美元，明年將增加至4.7億至5.2億美元。除了資本和研發投資外，該公司還將擁有電池合資企業30%的股份，並預計在未來3年投資6億至9億美元。

With the most advanced truck range in the industry, efficient investments, strong aftermarket parts and financial services businesses and exciting new strategic opportunities, PACCAR is positioned well for the future.

憑藉業內最先進的卡車系列、高效的投資、強大的售後零件和金融服務業務以及令人興奮的新策略機遇，PACCAR 為未來做好了充分準備。

Thank you. We would be pleased to answer your questions.

謝謝。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Tami Zakaria from JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tami Zakaria。

So my first question is about parts growth. I think in the press release, you said you're opening a PDC in Germany next year. So how should we be thinking about parts growth in 2024 in terms of how long does it take a PDC to sort of ramp and reach run rate capacity? How do we think about growth overall? If you could give some color on that, that would be very helpful.

所以我的第一個問題是關於零件成長。我記得您在新聞稿中說過明年將在德國開設 PDC。那麼，我們應該如何考慮 2024 年的零件成長，即 PDC 需要多長時間才能實現爬坡並達到運作率產能？我們如何看待整體成長？如果你能對此提供一些顏色，那將會非常有幫助。

Happy to start with that and Harrie can add anything he wants. I think what Harrie shared with you is that we think parts growth is going to be in the 7% to 9% in the fourth quarter. And to your point, on the effect of the PDC, it's almost immediately good for the business, right? What a PDC does is it allows us to have closer points of contact with our customers, get them parts in a more quick way and support their businesses for more same day or next day parts delivery. So it's really quickly beneficial to them, Tami.

很高興從這裡開始，哈利可以添加任何他想要的東西。我認為 Harrie 與您分享的是，我們認為第四季度零件增長將在 7% 到 9% 之間。就您而言，就 PDC 的效果而言，它幾乎立即對業務有利，對吧？ PDC 的作用是讓我們能夠與客戶建立更緊密的聯繫，以更快速的方式為他們提供零件，並支持他們的業務以實現更多當日或隔日零件交付。所以這很快就會對他們有利，塔米。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then how should we think about decremental margins next year, given you're expecting truck sales down both in Europe and U.S., Canada?

知道了。這非常有幫助。那麼，考慮到您預計歐洲、美國、加拿大的卡車銷售都會下降，我們應該如何考慮明年利潤率的下降？

I think what we've been able to do in the last few years, and we shared this, is, we've introduced more new products at any time in our history and we continue to do that with the new Peterbilt Model 589. Those products are doing exceptionally well for us in the marketplace. So we're pleased with how they're performing and that means performing for our customers. So they're getting value out of that. And I think we'll watch how the market develops for next year and we'll have a lot better insights into margin and what's going on as we get into the first quarter for 2024.

我認為我們在過去幾年中能夠做的，並且我們分享了這一點，是，我們在歷史上的任何時候都推出了更多新產品，並且我們將繼續通過新的彼得比爾特型號589 來做到這一點。我們的產品在市場上表現得非常好。因此，我們對他們的表現感到滿意，這意味著他們為我們的客戶提供服務。所以他們正在從中獲得價值。我認為我們將關註明年市場的發展情況，當我們進入 2024 年第一季時，我們將對利潤率和正在發生的事情有更好的了解。

Our next question today is from Steve Volkmann from Jefferies.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Steve Volkmann。

Preston, I think it was you who was talking about the launch of the new Peterbilt, I think, in January of '24, you said, sorry, if I got that wrong. I'm just curious how big of a launch is that? Okay. Great. How big of a launch is that? How much of your North American revenue could that be? And where I'm trying to go with this is, you guys always seem to engineer in sort of higher margins as you do these changeovers. So I'm trying to figure out how much of a tailwind that might be in 2024.

普雷斯頓，我想是你在談論新彼得比爾特的推出，我想，在 24 年 1 月，你說，抱歉，如果我弄錯了。我只是好奇這次發射的規模有多大？好的。偉大的。這是多大的發射？這佔您在北美的收入有多少？我想說的是，你們在進行這些轉變時似乎總是以更高的利潤來設計。所以我試著弄清楚 2024 年可能會帶來多大的推動力。

Steve, well, first of all, I mean, the thing about it, what we try to engineer in is higher value for our customers. And I think that that's what we've been able to do with these new products. The 589, well, the right word is, it's cool. When we did the introduction for it, it was just exciting to see it. It's going to be iconic in the industry. It looks fantastic and I think it will be a great flagship for the Peterbilt team. As far as percentages, maybe Harrie, you want to...

史蒂夫，首先，我的意思是，我們試圖為客戶創造更高的價值。我認為這就是我們透過這些新產品所能做到的。 589，嗯，正確的詞是，它很酷。當我們為它做介紹時，看到它真是令人興奮。它將成為該行業的標誌性產品。它看起來棒極了，我認為它將成為彼得比爾特團隊的偉大旗艦。至於百分比，也許哈里，你想…

The 589, Steve, will replace the 389. And a good way to think about it, the 389 is now about 20% of Peterbilt's production. So maybe 6%, 7% of PACCAR's total production. And the 589, like I said, will replace it and maybe grow even a little bit more.

史蒂夫，589 將取代 389。想想看，389 現在約佔彼得比爾特產量的 20%。所以可能佔 PACCAR 總產量的 6%、7%。正如我所說，589 將取代它，甚至可能會增長一點。

Great. Okay. And then my follow-up is on the Financial Services, Harrie. I'm curious, obviously, it was down a little bit year-over-year. How do the higher rates that we're seeing in the market kind of layer in? Because obviously, you get some income, I guess, on your cash balances, which is great but then there's probably some headwinds in the finance book. And I don't know, just any color you could give us on that would be great.

偉大的。好的。然後我的後續行動是金融服務，哈利。我很好奇，顯然，它比去年同期下降了一點。我們在市場上看到的較高利率是如何疊加的？因為顯然，我猜你會從現金餘額中獲得一些收入，這很好，但財務方面可能會遇到一些阻力。我不知道，只要你能給我們任何顏色就太好了。

We -- the portfolio quality, Steve, continues to be very strong. We have a portfolio of almost $20 billion now. with past dues less than 1%. So yes, higher interest rates do drive higher payments for our customers. But with all the new products that we launch that have better fuel efficiency, they do see savings on the fuel bill that more than offset the higher interest payments in today's environment.

史蒂夫，我們的投資組合品質仍然非常強勁。我們現在擁有近 200 億美元的投資組合。逾期未付款項低於 1%。所以，是的，更高的利率確實會導致我們的客戶支付更高的費用。但隨著我們推出的所有具有更高燃油效率的新產品，他們確實看到了燃油費用的節省，這足以抵消當今環境下較高的利息支付。

Our next question is from Chad Dillard from Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的查德·迪拉德。

So first question, more for you is, how much visibility do you have into engine rebuilds? And what does it tell you about your engine parts demand or what it could look like more broadly into 2024?

所以第一個問題，對您來說更重要的是，您對引擎重建有多少了解？它能告訴您有關引擎零件需求的哪些信息，或者到 2024 年更廣泛的情況會是什麼樣子？

Well, I think we have pretty good visibility to the life of the engine. So our Parts team does a fantastic job of tracking miles, a lot of our vehicles are connected, so we get to see what miles they are accumulating. We obviously manage what's going on from an engine parts utilization standpoint. And then as the population is still reaching a point of maturity, we expect to see the amount of rebuilds increasing over time. So that should be still accretive to the parts business.

嗯，我認為我們對引擎的壽命有很好的了解。因此，我們的零件團隊在追蹤里程方面做得非常出色，我們的許多車輛都是聯網的，因此我們可以看到它們累積了多少里程。顯然，我們從引擎零件利用率的角度來管理正在發生的事情。然後，由於人口仍達到成熟點，我​​們預計重建數量會隨著時間的推移而增加。因此，這應該仍然會增加零件業務。

Got it. That's helpful. And the second question, can you talk about your approach to managing the growth air pocket in '24, just given that you do have a prebuy ahead of the '27 emission standards that could probably start in 2025 and '26? Just want to get a sense for how you're thinking about labor, line rates, maintaining your suppliers, so you can catch the rebound.

知道了。這很有幫助。第二個問題，考慮到您確實在可能於 2025 年和 26 年開始實施的 27 排放標準之前進行了預購，您能否談談管理 24 年增長氣穴的方法？只是想了解您如何看待勞動力、生產線費率、維護供應商，這樣您就可以抓住反彈的機會。

Yes. I think that what we see is right and we've been talking about this for a little while with you guys is, our approach has been to spend money in research to make sure we have the right products sitting out there and we do. So we're really well positioned with the newest product lineup. That matters a lot. And then I think where we're sitting in time is markets that haven't been able to be fully met for a few years and now people are starting to think about what the future might be in terms of 2027 emissions, which could make this a stronger for longer kind of a good approach. Obviously, your word was air pocket. I got to tell you, I've never heard that word before but I'll use it with you. And if there's an air pocket next year, we'll see what that looks like as we get into 2024.

是的。我認為我們所看到的是正確的，我們已經和你們討論了一段時間了，我們的方法是花錢進行研究，以確保我們擁有合適的產品，而且我們確實做到了。因此，我們在最新的產品系列方面確實處於有利地位。這很重要。然後我認為我們現在所處的市場是幾年來都無法完全滿足的市場，現在人們開始思考 2027 年排放量的未來可能會是什麼樣子，這可能會使這個更強大、更持久的好方法。顯然，你的話是氣袋。我必須告訴你，我以前從未聽說過這個詞，但我會和你一起使用它。如果明年存在氣穴，進入 2024 年我們就會看到它是什麼樣子。

Our next question is from Rob Wertheimer from Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

Yes. One market question, then hopefully, more interesting strategic. So just on the outlook, is there any material mix shift kind of coming through in your customer conversations or order flow towards vocational? And (inaudible) does that outlook anticipate a decline in sentiment? Or does it sort of follow along with one you've already seen in the customer base?

是的。一個市場問題，然後希望是更有趣的策略問題。那麼就前景而言，您的客戶對話或訂單流中是否會出現任何材料組合向職業方向的轉變？ （聽不清楚）這種前景是否預示著情緒會下降？或者它與您在客戶群中已經看到的一致？

Rob, I think you're paying attention to what's going on. I mean we do see a really strong vocational market out there. We see a strong medium-duty market. The LTL market is very strong. And then as we were talking about in the last question from Chad, the idea that I think customers that are sophisticated or paying attention to the next few years and want to keep their fleet age at a low level, so there's a lot of contemplation for them to stay on a smart buying cycle for them. And frankly, as we've said and we keep saying, right, these new trucks are providing good value to them. So there's a reason for them to keep buying trucks. And I think that all factors into where we think the market is going to be looking forward.

羅布，我認為你正在關注正在發生的事情。我的意思是，我們確實看到了一個非常強大的職業市場。我們看到了強勁的中型市場。零擔市場非常強勁。然後，正如我們在乍得的最後一個問題中所討論的那樣，我認為成熟的客戶或關注未來幾年的客戶希望將他們的機隊年齡保持在較低水平，因此有很多考慮讓他們保持明智的購買週期。坦白說，正如我們已經說過並一直說的那樣，這些新卡車為他們提供了良好的價值。所以他們繼續購買卡車是有原因的。我認為所有因素都會影響我們對市場的展望。

Okay. Perfect. And then another one just on the battery investment. This has been the subject of some debate as your future trucks will presumably have higher content with batteries and autonomy and other things but just sticking with the batteries for the moment. And some question is to whether those batteries would be commodity provided by somebody else or more individually designed for your trucks by you. And this seems to lean in the latter direction. I wonder if you could comment on the proprietary nature of it, the chemistry and what you expect on this investment and the timing of when those trucks might actually start to roll in numbers to market. I'll stop there.

好的。完美的。另一項是關於電池投資的。這一直是一些爭論的話題，因為未來的卡車可能會有更多的電池、自主性和其他東西，但目前只是堅持使用電池。還有一個問題是，這些電池是由其他人提供的商品，還是由您為您的卡車單獨設計。而這似乎傾向於後一個方向。我想知道您是否可以評論它的專有性質、化學成分以及您對這項投資的期望，以及這些卡車何時真正開始大量推向市場。我就到此為止。

Yes. There were a lot of questions in there but let me kind of give you an overview and come back into it if you want to. So what we see is, as we move forward, there's going to be a host of technologies employed for how we use motive power. I think clean diesel is going to be part of it. We obviously think that batteries are going to be part of it as we did this joint venture into proprietary battery cells. And we think that hydrogen can play a role as well, whether that's internal combustion or it could be through fuel cells. But in the case of batteries, when you create a battery electric vehicle, the cost of the vehicle, that's highly impacted and influenced by the cost of the battery.

是的。那裡有很多問題，但讓我給你一個概述，如果你願意的話，可以再回來討論。所以我們看到的是，隨著我們的前進，將會有大量技術用於我們如何使用動力。我認為清潔柴油將成為其中的一部分。顯然，我們認為電池將成為其中的一部分，因為我們合資生產了專有電池。我們認為氫也可以發揮作用，無論是內燃還是透過燃料電池。但就電池而言，當您製造電池電動車時，汽車的成本很大程度上受到電池成本的影響。

So having it be more vertically integrated is an advantage, we think, for our customers and gives us an ability to control both the energy in the battery as well as the battery energy management system to the vehicle. So we felt like getting involved in that space was important and we think that will be a few years before it develops. Obviously, we don't have our regulatory approvals yet. And so we'll give a little bit of caution that we need those approvals for, forward-looking but that feels like it's going in a good direction.

因此，我們認為，對其進行更垂直的整合對於我們的客戶來說是一個優勢，並使我們能夠控制電池中的能量以及車輛的電池能量管理系統。所以我們覺得參與這個領域很重要，我們認為這需要幾年時間才能發展。顯然，我們還沒有獲得監管部門的批准。因此，我們會謹慎一點，我們需要這些批准，具有前瞻性，但感覺它正在朝著一個好的方向發展。

And then as I think about the kinds of chemistry you asked about, the technology we've chosen is LFP, lithium-iron-phosphate or some derivative of that, that we might use. And the benefit of that is, it's safer battery chemistry. It doesn't rely on rare earth minerals. It's more durable, it's faster to charge and it has a better life capability. So -- and a better cost structure. So all of those factors are the reason we chose that technology and just huge credit to our technology teams who have thought this through for the last several years as they made this decision and got us going on this great path.

然後，當我考慮您所詢問的化學類型時，我們選擇的技術是 LFP、磷酸鋰或我們可能使用的某些衍生物。這樣做的好處是，電池化學成分更安全。它不依賴稀土礦物。它更耐用，充電速度更快，並且具有更好的續航能力。所以——以及更好的成本結構。因此，所有這些因素都是我們選擇該技術的原因，並且對我們的技術團隊來說是巨大的榮譽，他們在過去幾年中深思熟慮，做出了這個決定，並讓我們走上了這條偉大的道路。

Our next question is from David Raso from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

The comments earlier about the first quarter of '24 are starting to fill up quickly. Can you give us some insight on how the pricing is for those first quarter deliveries? And then maybe a sense of the cadence year-over-year that you expect the U.S./Canada down 8% to play out for the industry?

早些時候關於 24 年第一季的評論開始很快就滿了。您能否向我們介紹第一季度交付的定價？然後，您是否預計美國/加拿大的同比下降 8% 會影響該行業？

Well, I think if you think about pricing, what we did is, we shared with you where our vision is best, David and that's at the fourth quarter. So that's where we gave you a gross margin expectation of around 19%. And as I said, it's filling in quickly. But I think that the key we've been focusing on is making sure that customers do realize the value of the products, they are. That factors into the pricing, obviously. And I'll say it's a competitive world out there. So I think it's a -- look forward to having the conversation with you on pricing and what's going on in the marketplace as we get into the earnings in the first quarter there. So that's kind of where that sits.

好吧，我認為如果你考慮定價，我們所做的是，我們與你分享了我們的最佳願景，大衛，那是在第四季度。因此，我們給您的毛利率預期為 19% 左右。正如我所說，它很快就會填滿。但我認為我們一直在關注的關鍵是確保客戶確實意識到產品的價值，而他們確實意識到了。顯然，這會影響定價。我想說這是一個競爭激烈的世界。因此，我認為，當我們了解第一季的收益時，期待與您就定價和市場動態進行對話。這就是它所在的位置。

From a secondary question of cadence, I think we're seeing, as I said, the first quarter looks pretty good. And I think that the overall sentiment is, while there may be some moderation in truckload, people are trying to figure out how to think about the next 3 years. And so I don't -- I'm not smart enough to know what Q2, Q3, Q4 are going to look like. And we just feel like we'll see some adjustments there from this year but that it should still stay at like a replacement demand level.

從節奏的第二個問題來看，我認為我們看到，正如我所說，第一季看起來相當不錯。我認為整體情緒是，雖然卡車裝載量可能有所放緩，但人們正在試圖弄清楚如何思考未來三年。所以我不知道——我不夠聰明，不知道第二季、第三季、第四季會是什麼樣子。我們只是覺得從今年開始我們會看到一些調整，但它應該仍保持在替換需求水準。

That's helpful. The order book right now, how far can the dealers order out to, say, U.S., Canada into '24?

這很有幫助。在現在的訂單簿上，經銷商可以在 24 世紀向美國、加拿大等地區訂購多遠的訂單？

Looking at the first half.

縱觀上半場。

Our next question is from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

I wonder if we could just talk about the new product portfolio, I mean, in Europe. I think your profitability per truck has doubled with the new product, similar on the medium-duty product lineup. Is it possible, Harrie, for us to have a discussion of what proportion of the portfolio fits this new product paradigm versus the type of rollouts that we have still in front of us over the next couple of years? How far away are we through rolling out this new higher-margin portfolio that seems to be a big step higher for you folks?

我想知道我們是否可以只討論歐洲的新產品組合。我認為新產品使每輛卡車的獲利能力增加了一倍，與中型產品系列類似。 Harrie，我們是否可以討論一下，與我們在未來幾年內仍然面臨的推出類型相比，該產品組合中的哪些比例適合這種新產品範式？我們距離推出這個新的更高利潤的投資組合還有多遠，這對你們來說似乎是一個很大的進步？

So the new DAF is currently a little over 80% of all the trucks that DAF is building. I remember DAF is also building trucks for export outside Europe. But I would say within Europe, almost all the trucks that we're selling are the new DAF with the improved aerodynamics and a better fuel economy because that's what customers want. And then going forward, yes, we're planning to bring that new DAF product also to other markets. And any market where we're currently selling DAF is an opportunity to sell the new DAF in the future.

因此，目前 DAF 生產的所有卡車中 80% 多一點是新型 DAF。我記得達夫也在製造出口歐洲以外的卡車。但我想說，在歐洲，我們銷售的幾乎所有卡車都是新型 DAF，具有改進的空氣動力學性能和更好的燃油經濟性，因為這就是客戶想要的。是的，我們也計劃將新的 DAF 產品推向其他市場。我們目前銷售 DAF 的任何市場都是未來銷售新 DAF 的機會。

And sorry, Harrie, can we expand that conversation in North America as well? So with the 589 rolling out, what's the remaining opportunity within the book for upgrades that you folks have planned?

抱歉，哈里，我們可以在北美也擴大這種對話嗎？那麼，隨著 589 的推出，你們計劃中的升級的剩餘機會是什麼？

Well, like I said, the 589 is -- the 389 is 20% of Peterbilt's production. So it's about 6%, 7% maybe of PACCAR's production. So with the 589 replacing the 389 next year, it will be a similar percentage, I would think as the 389 is today.

嗯，就像我說的，589 是——389 佔 Peterbilt 產量的 20%。所以大約佔 PACCAR 產量的 6%、7%。因此，隨著明年 589 取代 389，我認為這將是一個類似的百分比，就像今天的 389 一樣。

And there's a pipeline for new products from there, it sounds like?

那裡有一條新產品的管道，聽起來像嗎？

Of course, yes. I'll help a little bit here. Like you see what our R&D numbers are for next year. We think there's a ton of great projects that we have out there that provide good value to our customers and shareholders. And so we -- that pipeline is very full.

當然，是的。我會在這裡提供一點幫助。就像你看到我們明年的研發數字是多少。我們認為我們有很多偉大的項目為我們的客戶和股東提供了良好的價值。所以我們——管道已經滿了。

Okay. Super. And can I ask, on the battery electric investment, you folks have really good connectivity with your clients on the consultation side. Once you get the plant up and running, how quickly, based on your conversations, do you think demand will ramp up? How big are the concerns around the utilities' ability to keep up versus having a product that's going to be producible at scale that you folks are effectively going to be solving for the industry in 2027?

好的。極好的。我可以問一下，在電池電力投資方面，你們在諮詢方面與客戶的聯繫非常好。一旦工廠投入運行，根據您的談話，您認為需求會以多快的速度增加？與你們將在 2027 年為該行業有效解決的可大規模生產的產品相比，對於公用事業公司的跟上能力的擔憂有多大？

I think you just captured the issues that are [unknowable] at this point right now. Regulation is a factor. Energy is a factor. Infrastructure is a factor and the rate of adoption for EVs. Price is a factor as well. But our position is, as PACCAR is, we want to make sure that we offer our customers the right solutions, right? So we make the investments now. We're less concerned about whether the adoption curve is rapid in '27 or if it's '28 or whenever it is, we'll have great diesel engines, we'll have great electric vehicles, we'll have great hydrogen vehicles. And that puts us in a position of supporting their needs regardless of the circumstance.

我認為您剛剛抓住了目前[不可知]的問題。監管是一個因素。能源是一個因素。基礎設施是一個因素，也是電動車採用率的因素。價格也是一個因素。但我們的立場是，就像 PACCAR 一樣，我們希望確保為客戶提供正確的解決方案，對吧？所以我們現在就進行投資。我們不太關心27年的採用曲線是否很快，或者28年的採用曲線是否很快，或者無論什麼時候，我們都會有很棒的柴油發動機，我們會有很棒的電動汽車，我們會有很棒的氫動力汽車。這使我們能夠在任何情況下支持他們的需求。

Our next question today comes from Steven Fisher from UBS.

今天我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

Preston, you gave us some reasons for generally high margins in terms of the investments in technology and manufacturing but I guess what was so much better than you expected in margins in the quarter at the TPL level? I mean, still like 100 basis points above your midpoint. So just curious kind of was there any one of those factors or just conservatism that you're now baking into your numbers?

Preston，您給了我們一些在技術和製造投資方面利潤率普遍較高的原因，但我想是什麼讓本季度 TPL 水準的利潤率比您預期的好很多？我的意思是，仍然比中點高 100 個基點。所以只是好奇你現在在數據中考慮的是這些因素中的任何一個還是只是保守主義？

I think that we -- as we've shared with you and Steven, is that we're looking at -- the steadiness of supply has been improving but we certainly had some impacts from that. So that's a factor in there. I think that our rest of world markets are doing exceptionally well for us in addition and so that's a factor in there as well. And we just had a -- we had a smoother set of builds that probably happened for us. And those are probably the biggest things.

我認為，正如我們與您和史蒂文分享的那樣，我們正在關注供應的穩定性一直在改善，但我們確實受到了一些影響。所以這是其中的一個因素。我認為世界其他市場對我們來說也表現得非常好，所以這也是其中的一個因素。我們剛剛擁有了一組可能發生在我們身上的更流暢的構建。這些可能是最重要的事。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I'm just curious what indications do you have from your suppliers for costs on 2024. At this point, does it make sense to assume that the costs are generally going to be higher? And do you have an overall sort of cost strategy as you think about framing up 2024 at this point?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我只是好奇你們的供應商對 2024 年的成本有什麼指示。在這一點上，假設成本普遍會更高是否有意義？當您考慮制定 2024 年目標時，您是否有整體的成本策略？

Yes. I think that as you can see, we see various commodities moving in different directions, so moving in a down -- where positions are moving up. And obviously, there's some labor pressure. Those are probably the biggest influencers on cost right now. And I think that we'll look at 2024 when we get into January and see how that's looking then.

是的。我認為，正如你所看到的，我們看到各種商品朝著不同的方向移動，因此向下移動，而頭寸則向上移動。顯然，存在一些勞動力壓力。這些可能是目前對成本影響最大的因素。我認為，當我們進入 1 月時，我們會展望 2024 年，看看那時的情況如何。

Okay. I just need 1 quick clarification. The cost you mentioned on the R&D -- or sorry, on the new battery plant, how does that flow through the financials? Is that going to be a -- is that part of R&D costs? Or where does that flow through?

好的。我只需要 1 快速澄清。你提到的研發成本——或者抱歉，新電池工廠的成本，它是如何流向財務的？這會成為研發成本的一部分嗎？或者它流經哪裡？

That won't show up as R&D, it will show up as an investment, as part of our 30% investment in the joint venture.

這不會以研發的形式出現，而是以投資的形式出現，作為我們對合資企業 30% 投資的一部分。

Our next question is from Tim Thein from Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Tim Thein。

The question, I just wanted to come back, maybe Preston, a little bit higher level thoughts on parts in '24. If you look back, historically, there has been some relationship when PACCAR's truck volumes declined and industry profitability comes under -- or is under pressure, that has weighed on parts sales, obviously not nearly the same kind of magnitude. But just as you -- but we're coming through weird times from inventory stocking levels and -- and I can imagine that maybe there was some restocking that helped parts growth this year. But as you just kind of weigh this all together in an environment where global truck volumes are declining and from what we can observe, trucker profitability in developed markets under some pressure. How do you think that all comes together in terms of PACCAR's Parts sales in '24? Any just -- I know you're not going to give us -- or an estimate but just how you're thinking about that for '24?

這個問題，我只是想回來，也許是普雷斯頓，對 24 年的零件有一點更高層次的想法。如果你回顧一下歷史，當 PACCAR 的卡車銷量下降和行業盈利能力下降或面臨壓力時，存在某種關係，這對零件銷售造成了壓力，但顯然程度不一樣。但正如你一樣，我們正經歷庫存庫存水準的奇怪時期，我可以想像，也許今年有一些補充庫存有助於零件的成長。但在全球卡車銷量不斷下降的環境下綜合衡量這一切，從我們觀察到的情況來看，發達市場的卡車司機獲利能力面臨著一定的壓力。您認為 24 年 PACCAR 的零件銷售情況如何？任何 - 我知道你不會給我們 - 或估計，但你如何考慮 '24？

Absolutely, Tim. Fun to talk about it. I think the overarching view I take of it is, our parts team has done a great job of transitioning over the past several years, they're not really parts providers, they're transportation solutions providers, right? So they're thinking about what's valuable to the customer and what's valuable in the engagement with the dealer. And they've done a really good job of that. And I think that's foundationally lifted their performance over time, which goes along to the -- what was it, roughly 9% per year growth they've had over the past 20 years. So I think that they've done a really nice job of continuing to evolve the business through the application of technology and analytics and I expect that, that will over the medium term continue and long-term continue. So positive in that regard.

當然，提姆。談論它很有趣。我認為我對此的總體看法是，我們的零件團隊在過去幾年中在轉型方面做得很好，他們並不是真正的零件提供商，他們是運輸解決方案提供商，對嗎？因此，他們正在考慮什麼對客戶有價值以及什麼對與經銷商的互動有價值。他們在這方面做得非常好。我認為，隨著時間的推移，這從根本上提升了他們的業績，這也導致了過去 20 年來他們每年約 9% 的成長。因此，我認為他們在透過技術和分析的應用程式繼續發展業務方面做得非常好，我預計這將在中期和長期持續下去。在這方面非常積極。

I heard everything you said about the sensitivity to market, there's truth in that as well. And that way, we'll just look at what 2024 does. And...

我聽到了你所說的關於市場敏感性的一切，這也是事實。這樣，我們就可以看看 2024 年會發生什麼事。和...

Okay. All right. Fair enough. And then maybe one, just from a inventory level at your dealers, both new and used. Just where do we sit there? And I guess, kind of the related question is the appetite for dealers from a stocking perspective in '24. Just where does that sit? I'm sure it varies by geography but maybe just some thoughts on that.

好的。好的。很公平。然後也許是一個，只是從經銷商的庫存水準來看，包括新的和二手的。我們坐在哪裡？我想，一個相關的問題是從 24 年庫存的角度來看經銷商的興趣。它位於哪裡？我確信它因地理位置而異，但也許只是對此的一些想法。

Yes. Very good, Tim. You did ask that in the first time. Sorry, I missed it. We saw that there was some probably strong interest in having enough inventory when supply was limited. And I think that, that was then mitigated for a little bit. And I would say things are more back to normal in terms of overstock, destock and kind of sitting at a level where inventory feels like a rational and healthy level for our dealers now.

是的。非常好，提姆。你第一次就這麼問了。抱歉，我錯過了。我們發現，當供應有限時，有些人可能對擁有足夠的庫存有強烈的興趣。我認為，這種情況隨後有所緩解。我想說的是，在庫存過剩、去庫存以及庫存水準對我們的經銷商來說感覺像是一個合理和健康的水平方面，情況已經恢復正常。

Our next question today is from Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.

今天我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

Maybe just starting on Europe. So obviously, a lot of talk about U.S. and Canada on this call but what are you guys seeing from an order perspective within Europe that's kind of underpinning a weaker outlook for 2024 relative to the U.S.?

也許歐洲才剛開始。顯然，這次電話會議討論了很多關於美國和加拿大的話題，但你們從歐洲內部訂單的角度看到了什麼，這在某種程度上支撐了 2024 年相對於美國的疲軟前景？

Yes. I think that what we're seeing in Europe is like, we have good feel going into the first quarter. It feels like the general economies over there feel a bit more moderated than they are here. And so there's probably more contemplation going on within the customer base there.

是的。我認為我們在歐洲看到的情況是，我們進入第一季的感覺很好。感覺那裡的整體經濟比這裡的經濟要溫和一些。因此，那裡的客戶群可能正在進行更多的思考。

Okay. That makes sense.

好的。這就說得通了。

No, I think that's absolutely correct, Preston. The market is a little bit softer there. And that's why we're forecasting a market between 260,000 and 300,000 for next year. So that's somewhat of a decline compared to this year.

不，我認為這是絕對正確的，普雷斯頓。那裡的市場有點疲軟。這就是為什麼我們預測明年的市場規模將在 26 萬到 30 萬之間。所以與今年相比，這個數字有所下降。

Understood. And then in the U.S., can you just speak to a little bit of what you're hearing by customer side? So any major divergence in order activity from like small versus medium versus large fleets?

明白了。那麼在美國，您能簡單談談您從客戶那裡聽到的一些情況嗎？那麼，小型機隊、中型機隊和大型機隊的訂單活動是否有重大差異？

I think it's kind of interesting is that like, we said earlier in the macro scale of it, there's a lot of sectors that are doing exceptionally well right now. The vocational sector is probably just spinning up. It's a very strong sector for PACCAR in North America with Peterbilt and Kenworth having roughly 40% of that market. So that's good. We see some real strength in the LTL market as well. We see real strength in the medium-duty market as well. As I shared earlier, I think that the large truckload carriers are contemplating what they're going to do and thinking about the next 3 years and keeping their fleets at a young spot. And I think for all our customers, there's the advantage of the new truck, right?

我認為有趣的是，就像我們之前在宏觀層面所說的那樣，有很多產業現在表現得非常好。職業部門可能剛興起。對於 PACCAR 來說，這是北美一個非常強大的領域，Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 佔據了該市場約 40% 的份額。所以這樣很好。我們也看到了零擔市場的一些真正實力。我們也看到了中型市場的真正實力。正如我之前分享的，我認為大型卡車承運商正在考慮他們要做什麼，並考慮未來 3 年並將他們的車隊保持在年輕的位置。我認為對於我們所有的客戶來說，新卡車都有優勢，對吧？

If the truck is providing a 7% benefit in fuel economy, it's compelling reasons to buy that truck plus the drivers love it. So those things factor in and that kind of gives you a walk through across the sectors of the market.

如果卡車的燃油經濟性提高了 7%，那麼就有令人信服的理由購買該卡車，駕駛員也喜歡它。因此，這些因素都會被考慮在內，這可以讓您了解市場的各個領域。

Our next question is from Matt Elkott from Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Matt Elkott。

So your 2024 U.S. and Canada Class 8 forecast, it reflects what seems to be a smaller decline than some may have feared. My question is, given you guys have higher exposure to infrastructure than some of your peers, do you think backlog can do even better than this forecast, in the U.S. that is?

因此，您對 2024 年美國和加拿大 8 級汽車的預測表明，下降幅度似乎比一些人擔心的要小。我的問題是，考慮到你們比一些同行對基礎設施的接觸程度更高，你們認為在美國積壓的情況會比這個預測更好嗎？

Better than the forecast in terms of?

比預測好多少？

A smaller decline even than the 8% that you're expecting for the industry.

降幅甚至小於您對該行業預期的 8%。

Our strong presence in the vocational segment where we have 40% market share, that strength obviously should translate into PACCAR doing really well next year.

我們在職業領域擁有強大的影響力，擁有 40% 的市場份額，這種優勢顯然應該轉化為 PACCAR 明年的出色表現。

Okay. But -- so relative to the industry forecast, do you think you might be able to outperform or you're not ready to say that.

好的。但是，相對於產業預測，你認為你可能能夠跑贏大盤，還是你還沒準備好這麼說。

Well, I think what we did is, we gave the forecast with the range because that's what we think the range could be, right? That's why we came out 260,000 to 300,000 because that's how we see it.

好吧，我認為我們所做的是，我們給出了預測範圍，因為這就是我們認為的範圍，對嗎？這就是為什麼我們得出了 260,000 到 300,000 的數字，因為這就是我們的看法。

Okay. And then just one more follow-up. If you -- if we do have a higher mix of vocational in the next year or 2 years, can you just talk a bit more about what it could mean for margins and pricing and as well as the kind of fluidity of the manufacturing process?

好的。然後還有一個後續行動。如果你——如果我們在未來一年或兩年內確實有更高的職業組合，你能多談談這對利潤和定價以及製造過程的流動性意味著什麼嗎？

Well, our truck, parts and -- it's a good opportunity, thanks for bringing it up. I mean, the mixture and how that works is, our truck, parts have just done an absolutely amazing job around the world, managing the last few years and they are artisans at being able to build the trucks that they need to build. So I couldn't be more proud of them and pleased with the results that they've delivered. And I think that if we see mix shifts from on-highway into vocational market, that's very adaptable for us. We can build any truck in our factories that we need to and they're very good at putting those trucks out. So I think that, that will be just fine for us if we see that shift and it won't -- it will be -- and it will be good for PACCAR and good for our customers.

嗯，我們的卡車、零件以及——這是一個很好的機會，感謝您提出。我的意思是，混合物及其工作原理是，我們的卡車、零件在世界各地做得非常出色，管理過去幾年，他們是能夠製造他們需要製造的卡車的工匠。因此，我為他們感到無比自豪，並對他們所取得的成果感到非常滿意。我認為，如果我們看到混合從高速公路轉向職業市場，這對我們來說非常適應。我們可以在我們的工廠製造我們需要的任何卡車，而且他們非常擅長將這些卡車投入生產。所以我認為，如果我們看到這種轉變，那對我們來說就好了，它不會——它會——而且這對 PACCAR 和我們的客戶都有好處。

Our next question is from Jeff Kauffman from Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Kauffman。

Congratulations. I want to think a little bit about this joint venture. So you said I guess, 2 questions. #1 on CapEx. You said $600 million to $900 million. Let's assume that you can get all of the approvals that you need, does that imply when we're thinking about '25, '26 CapEx, we could be looking at $1 billion plus in terms of total firm CapEx? That's question one.

恭喜。我想思考一下這個合資企業。所以你說我猜有兩個問題。資本支出排名第一。你說6億到9億美元。假設您可以獲得所需的所有批准，這是否意味著當我們考慮 '25、'26 資本支出時，我們可能會考慮 10 億美元以上的公司總資本支出？這是問題一。

I'll just go for that question and then you can do for the second one, Harrie, you can probably take it.

我先回答這個問題，然後你就可以回答第二個問題，哈里，你也許可以接受。

So the $600 million to $900 million investment in the joint venture will be showing up as an investment. It will not show up as our capital investment plan. So the capital numbers we just mentioned for this year and next year are without the joint venture.

因此，對合資企業的 6 億至 9 億美元投資將顯示為投資。它不會顯示為我們的資本投資計劃。所以我們剛才提到的今年和明年的資本數字是不包括合資企業的。

Okay. And then question 2, I'm thinking back to the future here, 21 gigawatts at the factory. But if I want to bring it into something that I can convert into trucks, so if I think of 21 gigawatts and maybe your smaller trucks are 250 to 300-kilowatt hour batteries and your larger trucks are kind of 600, 750-kilowatt hour battery. So I'm just going to take an average of 500-kilowatt hour. Are we talking about kind of 40,000 to 50,000 vehicles a year that this plant could theoretically battery and then you would have a 30% interest in that, that shows up as other income investment in joint venture?

好的。然後問題2，我在這裡回想未來，工廠有21吉瓦。但如果我想把它變成可以改裝成卡車的東西，那麼如果我想到 21 吉瓦，也許你的小型卡車是 250 至 300 千瓦時的電池，而你的大型卡車是 600、750 千瓦時的電池。所以我只取平均 500 千瓦時的電量。我們是否在談論該工廠理論上每年可以生產 40,000 至 50,000 輛汽車，然後您將擁有 30% 的權益，這將顯示為合資企業的其他收入投資？

Yes, Jeff, that is perfect math. I think you can use that and you probably can go back to the future with that.

是的，傑夫，這是完美的數學。我認為你可以使用它，並且你可能可以用它回到未來。

Our last question registered is from Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

我們登記的最後一個問題來自沃爾夫研究公司的斯科特集團。

So I just wanted to just follow up on one of the earlier questions. What percentage of your mix is typically the large truckload? And then within the 2024 trucks, is there any change in mix of sales with the MX versus (inaudible)? Is that mix going higher or lower?

所以我只想跟進之前的問題之一。通常，大卡車裝載量佔您的組合的百分比是多少？那麼，在 2024 年卡車中，MX 與（聽不清楚）的銷售組合是否有任何變化？這種混合會更高還是更低？

On the mix of sales, I mean, I think that you can kind of see variance within the model, right? I think if you're asking, is like you could look at fleets and customers in the midsized over-the-road segments being a big part of it, vocational is kind of a part of it, then you need to put the LTL as a part of it in the greater than 16-tonne Class 8 markets. And I think that they split up, the biggest part of that is the truckload and then obviously the LTL combined and then you get into the vocational, is next behind that. So that's kind of how we think of it and we don't really worry through what the percentage of each will be because there's such overlap between them.

關於銷售組合，我的意思是，我認為您可以看到模型內的差異，對吧？我想如果你問的話，就像你可以看看中型公路細分市場的車隊和客戶是其中的重要組成部分，職業是其中的一部分，那麼你需要將 LTL 作為其中一部分在大於16 噸的8 級市場。我認為他們分開了，其中最大的一部分是卡車裝載量，然後顯然是零擔運輸，然後你進入職業，是接下來的。這就是我們的想法，我們並不真正擔心各自的百分比是多少，因為它們之間有重疊。

And then any changes again in the -- of what you're selling for '24 if MX penetration is higher, lower, unchanged?

然後，如果 MX 滲透率更高、更低、沒有變化，你的 24 年銷售價格是否會再次改變？

Yes. We think the MX engine is going to be doing really well next year, right? It was 43% of our build in the quarter -- this quarter. And we expect to see that growing. We've been working through supply constraints on it. And as we work through that, we think there's great upside for that next year.

是的。我們認為 MX 引擎明年將會表現出色，對嗎？這是我們本季建構的 43%。我們期望看到這種增長。我們一直在努力解決供應限制問題。當我們解決這個問題時，我們認為明年會有很大的上升空間。

Okay. Any color on how to think about the finco margins from here, loss provisions up a little bit. But how do we think about finco from here?

好的。關於如何從這裡考慮金融利潤率的任何顏色，損失準備金增加了一點。但從這裡我們如何看待金融呢？

Finco should continue to do strong in the fourth quarter and next year. Credit losses were $6 million in the quarter but that's really a very small number to the total almost $20 billion portfolio. So excellent credit quality. And like I said, we expect the finance company to continue to do well.

Finco 在第四季和明年應該會繼續表現強勁。本季的信貸損失為 600 萬美元，但這對於近 200 億美元的投資組合總額來說確實是一個很小的數字。如此優良的信用品質。正如我所說，我們預計這家金融公司將繼續表現良好。

Okay. And then if I could just ask 1 more, just big picture. I know there's been a lot of questions about gross margin. But you go back 30 years, it's never -- you've never had a year at over 16% and this year is going to be over 19%. So it's a lot of what you've been talking about. I guess what do you think is the right -- what's the new range that you would think about through this cycle for PACCAR gross margin going forward?

好的。然後我能否再問一個問題，只是大局。我知道有很多關於毛利率的問題。但回顧 30 年前，從來沒有哪一年的成長率超過 16%，而今年將超過 19%。所以這就是你一直在談論的很多內容。我想你認為什麼是正確的——你認為在這個週期中佩卡毛利率的新範圍是多少？

Well, I think that the reason we've seen that gross margin is because there is an incredible team of people at PACCAR that are working everyday to give our customers great value and they're succeeding in that. It's a huge part of it. We have a fantastic dealer network. They're doing a great job. And I think our customers are seeing the value in that as well. So that's the overarching things that are driving it up and we aim to continue to deliver on that. I think predicting the future gets a little risky. And we'll look at how it comes through. It depends on the cycles and everything else but I can't be more pleased with how PACCAR is positioned for the future and what it will be able to deliver.

嗯，我認為我們看到毛利率的原因是因為 PACCAR 有一支令人難以置信的團隊，他們每天都在努力為我們的客戶提供巨大的價值，並且他們在這方面取得了成功。這是其中很大一部分。我們擁有出色的經銷商網路。他們做得很好。我認為我們的客戶也看到了其中的價值。這就是推動它發展的首要因素，我們的目標是繼續實現這一目標。我認為預測未來有點冒險。我們將看看它是如何實現的。這取決於週期和其他一切，但我對 PACCAR 對未來的定位以及它將能夠提供的服務感到非常滿意。

Thank you. This is all the questions we have today. So I'd like to hand back to management for any closing remarks.

謝謝。這就是我們今天的所有問題。因此，我想將結束語交還給管理階層。

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call and thank you, operator.

我們要感謝大家加入通話，謝謝接線生。

Thank you, everyone, for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines and have a lovely day.

謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開線路並度過美好的一天。