帕卡 (PCAR) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

(technical difficulty) Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. And if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time.

（技術故障）財報電話會議。 （接線員指示）本次電話會議正在錄音。如有任何異議，請立即掛斷電話。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我謹介紹帕卡公司投資者關係總監肯‧黑斯廷斯先生。黑斯廷斯先生，請開始。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller. As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the Investor Relations page of paccar.com.

早安.歡迎各位透過電話和網路直播收聽本次會議。我是PACCAR投資者關係總監Ken Hastings。今天早上與我一同出席的還有執行長Preston Feight、總裁兼財務長Harrie Schippers以及高級副總裁兼財務總監Michael Barkley。與以往的電話會議一樣，我們懇請所有媒體朋友以僅收聽模式參與。今天公佈的部分資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期業績的總體經濟和競爭狀況。更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及paccar.com網站的投資者關係頁面。

I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

現在我來介紹普雷斯頓費特。

Good morning. Harrie Schippers, Michael Barkley and I will update you on a record fourth quarter and full year 2022 results as well as other business highlights. First, I appreciate our outstanding PACCAR employees.

早安.我和哈里·希珀斯、麥可·巴克利將向大家報告創紀錄的2022年第四季和全年業績，以及其他業務亮點。首先，我要感謝我們傑出的帕卡員工。

They consistently deliver the highest quality trucks and transportation solutions to our customers and excellent financial results for our shareholders. They are truly an impressive team.

他們始終如一地為我們的客戶提供最優質的卡車和運輸解決方案，並為我們的股東帶來卓越的財務回報。他們真是一支令人印象深刻的團隊。

In 2022, PACCAR achieved record annual revenues of $28.8 billion and record net income of $3.01 billion. PACCAR's financial performance benefited from strong business growth across all of PACCAR's major truck markets and record results in our Parts and Financial Services divisions. PACCAR has achieved 84 consecutive years of net income and has paid a dividend every year since 1941. In 2022, PACCAR declared dividends of $4.19 per share and announced a 50% stock dividend. PACCAR's fourth quarter revenues were a record $8.1 billion, and quarterly net income increased from the prior year by 78% to a record $921 million.

2022年，PACCAR集團實現了創紀錄的288億美元年度營收和30.1億美元淨利。 PACCAR的財務表現得益於其所有主要卡車市場的強勁業務成長，以及零件和金融服務部門的創紀錄業績。 PACCAR已連續84年實現淨盈利，並自1941年以來每年派發股息。 2022年，PACCAR宣布派發每股4.19美元的股息，並宣布發放50%的股票股息。 PACCAR第四季營收達到創紀錄的81億美元，季淨利較上年同期成長78%，達到創紀錄的9.21億美元。

PACCAR Parts achieved fourth quarter revenues of $1.47 billion and record pretax profits of $380 million, which was 23% increase compared to the same period last year. PACCAR delivered 51,600 trucks during the fourth quarter. This was 7,300 more than the third quarter and was a result of higher truck production and the completion of nearly all the vehicles that were awaiting components. The supply chain is improving, though there may be some supplier constraints throughout the year. In the first quarter of 2023, deliveries are forecast to be strong and in the range of 49,000 to 53,000.

PACCAR Parts第四季營收達14.7億美元，稅前利潤創下3.8億美元的歷史新高，較去年同期成長23%。 PACCAR第四季交付卡車51,600輛，較第三季增加7,300輛，主要得益於卡車產量提升以及幾乎所有待裝配零件的車輛均已完成交付。供應鏈正在逐步改善，但仍可能全年面臨一些供應商供應限制。預計2023年第一季交付量將保持強勁勢頭，介於49,000至53,000輛之間。

In 2022, U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck retail sales were 283,500 units. PACCAR's market share increased to 29.8%. The U.S. economy is projected to expand modestly in 2023. In this truck sector, there is pent-up demand from the prior 3 years of industry under production and customers need to replace aging fleets to benefit from the superior performance of the newer Kenworth and Peterbilt models.

2022年，美國和加拿大8級卡車零售銷售量為283,500輛。 PACCAR的市佔率成長至29.8%。預計2023年美國經濟將溫和成長。由於過去三年行業產能不足，卡車市場有積壓需求，客戶需要更換老舊車隊，以享受新款肯沃斯和彼得比爾特車型帶來的卓越性能。

The 2023 U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck market deliveries are forecast to be in a range of 270,000 to 310,000 vehicles. European above 16-tonne truck registrations were $298,000 last year. And DAF's market share increased to a record 17.3%, reflecting the success of the new generation of DAF trucks.

預計2023年美國和加拿大8級卡車市場交付量將在27萬至31萬輛之間。去年歐洲16噸以上卡車註冊量為29.8萬美元。 DAF的市佔率成長至創紀錄的17.3%，這反映了新一代DAF卡車的成功。

In 2023, confidence in the European economy is growing, and with pent-up demand for new trucks, we expect the above 16-tonne truck registrations to be in the range of 270,000 to 310,000. In 2022, the South American above 16-tonne truck market was 138,300. And this year, the South American market is expected to be in the range of 125,000 to 135,000 units. In Brazil, DAF achieved a record 6.9% share in the above 16-tonne market, up from 5.7% last year. DAF Brazil has grown steadily since we opened the factory 10 years ago. And makes a healthy contribution to PACCAR's global success. Truck, Parts and Other gross margins expanded to 15.9% in the fourth quarter, reflecting strong global performance, higher truck deliveries, excellent parts business and supply chain improvements. We estimate PACCAR's worldwide first quarter Truck and Parts gross margins (inaudible).

2023年，歐洲經濟信心增強，加上新卡車需求積壓，我們預計16噸以上卡車的註冊量將在27萬至31萬輛之間。 2022年，南美洲16噸以上卡車市場規模為13.83萬輛。今年，預計南美市場規模將在12.5萬至13.5萬輛之間。在巴西，DAF在16噸以上卡車市場的市佔率達到創紀錄的6.9%，高於去年的5.7%。自10年前在巴西建廠以來，DAF巴西業務穩步成長，為PACCAR的全球成功做出了重要貢獻。第四季度，卡車、零件及其他業務的毛利率增長至15.9%，這反映了強勁的全球業績、更高的卡車交付量、出色的零件業務以及供應鏈的改進。我們估計 PACCAR 全球第一季卡車和零件毛利率（聽不清楚）。

PACCAR and its customers realize the financial benefits of the new range of heavy and medium-duty Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF trucks. These new trucks are successful in the market due to their premium quality, excellent fuel efficiency and low operating costs. Last year, PACCAR earned recognition in several areas. The new DAF XD distribution and vocational truck was named the 2023 International Truck of the Year. Kenworth and Peterbilt earned 6 manufacturing leadership awards from the National Association of Manufacturers.

PACCAR及其客戶充分認識到全新肯沃斯（Kenworth）、彼得比爾特（Peterbilt）和達夫（DAF）重型及中型卡車系列帶來的經濟效益。這些新型卡車憑藉其卓越的品質、出色的燃油效率和低營運成本，在市場上取得了成功。去年，PACCAR在多個領域榮獲殊榮。全新達夫XD配送及專用卡車榮膺2023年度國際卡車大獎。肯沃斯和彼得比爾特則榮獲美國國家製造商協會頒發的六項製造領導獎。

The reporting firm, CDP, again recognized PACCAR as an environmental leader with a elite A rating. This rating places PACCAR in the top 1.5% of over 18,000 reporting companies. And PACCAR was recognized as a top place for women to work by the Women in Trucking organization for the fifth consecutive year.

報告機構CDP再次授予PACCAR「環保領導者」稱號，並授予其精英級A級評級。這項評級使PACCAR躋身超過18,000家報告公司的前1.5%。此外，PACCAR連續第五年被「卡車運輸女性協會」（Women in Trucking）評為女性最佳工作場所之一。

Demand is strong in all markets for PACCAR's industry-leading new trucks and transportation solutions, and we look forward to 2023, being another excellent year. Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial Services and other business highlights. Harrie?

PACCAR 領先業界的新型卡車和運輸解決方案在所有市場都需求強勁，我們期待 2023 年再創佳績。接下來，Harrie Schippers 將介紹 PACCAR 零件、PACCAR 金融服務及其他業務亮點。 Harrie，您好！

Thank you, Preston. In 2022, PACCAR Parts set new records for annual revenues and profits. Annual revenues increased by 17% to $5.8 billion, and annual pretax profit increased by 30% to $1.45 billion. Annual gross margins expanded to 30.4% from 28.6% in the prior year. PACCAR Parts is a high margin and high growth business. PACCAR Parts expanded its global distribution network in 2022 by opening a new parts distribution center in Louisville, Kentucky and has 18 PDCs worldwide.

謝謝你，普雷斯頓。 2022年，PACCAR Parts的年度營收和利潤均創下新紀錄。年度營收成長17%，達58億美元；年度稅前利潤成長30%，達14.5億美元。年度毛利率從前一年的28.6%提升至30.4%。 PACCAR Parts是一家高利潤率、高成長的企業。 2022年，PACCAR Parts在肯塔基州路易斯維爾開設了一家新的零件配送中心，進一步拓展了其全球分銷網絡，目前在全球擁有18家零件配送中心。

We estimate Parts sales to grow by 10% to 13% in the first quarter of this year compared to the same quarter last year as high truck utilization contributes to strong global demand for Parts. PACCAR Financial Services' fourth quarter pretax income increased to a record $151 million, which is a 12% increase from last year. Annual pretax income increased 35% to a record $589 million. Portfolio assets increased to $17.2 billion. The portfolio continues to perform well with very low past dues and low credit losses. PACCAR Financial benefited from strong used truck prices in 2022.

我們預計，由於卡車利用率高，全球對零件的需求強勁，今年第一季零件銷售額將比去年同期成長10%至13%。 PACCAR金融服務公司第四季稅前利潤增加至創紀錄的1.51億美元，較去年同期成長12%。全年稅前利潤成長35%，達到創紀錄的5.89億美元。投資組合資產增至172億美元。此投資組合表現良好，逾期付款和信貸損失均極低。 PACCAR金融公司受惠於2022年二手卡車價格的強勁成長。

Last year, PACCAR Financial opened a new retail used truck center in Madrid, Spain, bringing the total to 13 used-truck facilities worldwide. These retail used truck centers contribute to higher price realization compared to wholesale channels. In 2023, we expect used truck prices to moderate but remain historically strong. With its larger portfolio and superb credit quality, PACCAR Financial should have another very good year.

去年，PACCAR Financial在西班牙馬德里開設了一家新的二手卡車零售中心，使其全球二手卡車銷售中心總數達到13家。與批發通路相比，這些零售中心有助於實現更高的售價。我們預計2023年二手卡車價格將有所回落，但仍將維持歷史高點。憑藉其龐大的資產組合和卓越的信貸質量，PACCAR Financial有望再創佳績。

In 2022, PACCAR invested $505 million in capital projects and $341 million in research and development. PACCAR's return on invested capital improved to an industry-leading 35.2%. In 2023, we are planning capital investments in the range of $525 million to $575 million, and R&D expenses will be in the range of $360 million to $410 million as we invest in key technology and innovation projects.

2022年，PACCAR在資本項目上投資5.05億美元，在研發方面投資3.41億美元。 PACCAR的投資報酬率提升至業界領先的35.2%。 2023年，我們計劃在資本項目上投資5.25億美元至5.75億美元，研發支出預計在3.6億美元至4.1億美元之間，用於投資關鍵技術和創新項目。

These include next-generation clean diesel and hydrogen combustion engines, battery and hydrogen electric powertrains, autonomous driving systems, connected vehicle services, advanced manufacturing and enhanced distribution capabilities. PACCAR's independent Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF dealers continue to invest in their businesses to provide our customers the highest level of service in the industry. (inaudible) Significant contribution to PACCAR's long-term success and supporting the growth of PACCAR Parts and PACCAR Financial Services. PACCAR had an outstanding year in 2022, and we are very positive about 2023. Thank you. We'll be pleased to answer your questions.

這些技術包括新一代清潔柴油和氫燃料內燃機、電池和氫燃料電池電動動力系統、自動駕駛系統、連網汽車服務、先進製造流程以及更強大的分銷能力。 PACCAR旗下獨立的Kenworth、Peterbilt和DAF經銷商持續投資於自身業務，力求為客戶提供業界最高水準的服務。 （聽不清楚）這對PACCAR的長期成功以及PACCAR零件和PACCAR金融服務的成長做出了重大貢獻。 PACCAR在2022年取得了卓越的成績，我們對2023年充滿信心。謝謝。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from David Raso from Evercore ISI.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

My question relates to the gross margin for the first quarter? And how do we think about the cadence from there. So for the first quarter, you have deliveries very similar to the fourth quarter. The mix between truck revenues and parts revenues, seems like it's pretty similar. So for the stronger gross margin in the first quarter and the fourth quarter, is that essentially that you're shipping less red tag trucks, so a little more overhead absorption and price cost gets better? And then I'm just trying to think about price cost moving forward after the first quarter.

我的問題是關於第一季的毛利率，以及我們接下來該如何看待這個季度的發展節奏。第一季的交付量與第四季非常相似，卡車收入和零件收入的比例也基本相同。那麼，第一季和第四季毛利率較高，是否主要是因為你們交付的「紅色標籤」卡車數量減少了，從而更好地吸收了營運成本，降低了價格？接下來，我想探討第一季之後的價格成本走勢。

Yes. Sure, David. Good to talk to you. The way we're looking at it is the offline units that have been limited by supplier constraints have been largely resolved. So it's fairly behind us right now. But there were some of those that we're taking care of in the fourth quarter. So when we think about deliveries in the first quarter, that's basically production. It's good run rates. We would say that our margins are doing well on both the parts side and the truck side, and that's really a factor of all of the new trucks being in the market and pretty much fully released now in Europe and North America. So the customers are getting the benefits of those trucks, as are we.

是的，當然，大衛。很高興和你聊聊。我們目前的情況是，受供應商限製而導致的離線訂單問題已經基本解決，所以現在基本上已經過去了。不過，第四季我們還會處理一些剩餘訂單。所以，第一季的交付量基本上都是來自於生產，生產效率很高。零件和卡車業務的利潤率都表現良好，這主要得益於新卡車已經上市，並且在歐洲和北美市場基本上全面發布。因此，客戶和我們都能從中受益。

And I would add 1 more thing, which is the strong global performance of the team, whether it's in Australia or in South America, it's going well, and that's contributing.

我還要補充一點，那就是球隊在全球範圍內的出色表現，無論是在澳洲還是在南美洲，都進展順利，這也起到了一定的作用。

So taking that from the first quarter then, if your pricing your backlog, I assume isn't going to dissipate the next few quarters, I would like to think some costs maybe come down as the year progresses. If that's what you're able to do in the first quarter and price cost maybe gets a little better over the next couple of quarters, not worse. How should we think about the gross margins moving forward after the first quarter?

所以，以第一季的情況來看，如果你的訂單積壓定價策略是正確的，我假設未來幾季訂單積壓不會減少，那麼我希望隨著時間的推移，一些成本可能會下降。如果第一季你能做到這一點，而且定價成本在接下來的幾季可能會略有改善，而不是惡化，那麼我們該如何看待第一季之後的毛利率走勢呢？

Well, you know well that we guide, we share information what we think the first quarter will be. In general, we think 2023 will be a good year.

您也知道，我們會提供指導，分享我們對第一季業績的預測資訊。總的來說，我們認為2023年會是不錯的一年。

Our next question comes from Steven Fisher from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

Nice quarter with the better than expected deliveries. To what extent are you backfilling that backlog? Or are you perhaps sort of just burning that backlog a bit faster than expected? And I guess I'm curious how much visibility do you have later in the year? And how much -- how full your backlog is for, say, Q3 and Q4?

本季業績不錯，交付量超乎預期。你們在多大程度上正在填補積壓訂單？還是你們的積壓訂單處理速度比預期快一些？另外，我很好奇你們對今年下半年的業績有多大把握？比如說，你們第三季和第四季的積壓訂單量是多少？

Yes. I mean I think the macro way to think about it is since 2020, the industry has really been not able to supply all the trucks that have been needed. So there is a strong pent-up demand for the trucks. And in addition to that, obviously, we've launched more new products than any time in our history. So that's contributing. We have excellent visibility looking into the year, full through the first half, filling the third quarter nicely. Demand continues to be strong, in line with build. And so it's looking like a really good year.

是的。我的意思是，從宏觀角度來看，自2020年以來，整個產業一直無法滿足所有卡車的需求。因此，卡車市場存在著強勁的積壓需求。除此之外，顯然，我們推出的新產品數量也創下了歷史新高。這也起到了推動作用。我們對今年的前景非常樂觀，上半年訂單充足，第三季訂單也基本完成。需求持續強勁，與產能保持同步。因此，今年看起來會是非常好的一年。

Okay. And just in terms of the cost and inflation side of things, I'm curious what you're seeing from your suppliers in terms of prices. Is there sort of a range that you're seeing where some of them are still raising prices? Some are holding or falling? What are you seeing in terms of the net inflation and actions from your suppliers here?

好的。就成本和通貨膨脹方面而言，我很想知道您供應商的價格狀況。他們的價格是否有波動，有些還在漲價，有些則維持不變或下降？您觀察到的淨通膨情況以及供應商的應對措施是什麼？

Yes. I think you did a great job of characterizing it. You see some raising some holding, somewhere there's commodity costs where there have been improvements. But it's a mixed bag. Obviously, labor is still a factor as far as our supplier -- for our suppliers, and all of those wash into the mix.

是的。我覺得你描述得很好。有些地方價格上漲，有些地方價格持平，部分地區的商品成本下降。但整體來說，情況比較複雜。顯然，勞動成本仍然是我們供應商需要考慮的一個因素——所有這些因素都會影響最終結果。

Our next question comes from Dillon Cumming from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的狄龍·卡明。

Just wanted to ask a first 1 on the Parts growth. 10% to 13% in the first quarter is pretty admirable just considering some of the rumblings you've heard in the channel with regards to truck utilization maybe being a bit more challenged. But you've obviously been getting the benefit of M X engine penetration. Can you just maybe pare off those 2 kind of headwinds and tailwinds going into the first quarter? How much of that growth is coming from MX engine penetration versus any headwind from truck utilization maybe moderating a bit?

我想先問一下關於零件業務成長的問題。考慮到通路裡有人提到卡車利用率可能會受到一些挑戰，第一季10%到13%的成長率確實相當不錯。但顯然，MX引擎的普及也帶來了一定的好處。能否分析一下第一季成長中這兩方面的利弊？其中有多少成長來自MX引擎的普及，又有多少成長來自卡車利用率可能下降帶來的不利影響？

Yes, the 10% to 13% growth rate that we expect for the first quarter really reflects all of those things. So we continue to see the PACCAR engine performing really well. That, of course, drives incremental Parts sales. But the Parts team is doing an amazing job launching new programs, whether it's fleet sales, e-commerce, or MDI system continues to improve.

是的，我們預期第一季10%到13%的成長率確實反映了所有這些因素。因此，我們看到PACCAR的業務引擎持續表現強勁。這自然會帶動零件銷售額的成長。零件團隊在推出新專案方面做得非常出色，無論是車隊銷售、電子商務，還是MDI系統，都在不斷改進。

So it also means that we continue to grow our share in the Parts business. We're announcing our TRP business, adding stores, selling more parts with TRP. So it's a mixture of all of those things that allow us to do really well in the first quarter.

這也意味著我們在零件業務領域的份額持續成長。我們宣布推出TRP業務，增加門市數量，並透過TRP銷售更多零件。正是這些因素的綜合作用，使我們在第一季取得了優異的業績。

Got you. And I can just ask a second 1 on the FinCo. The margin performance in the quarter, really strong considering the deceleration we've seen in used truck pricing more recently. Is that just reflective of PACCAR trucks commanding a premium in market on used basis or what would you kind of attribute that more recent strength to considering the decline you've seen in used truck prices more recently?

明白了。我還可以再問一個關於FinCo的問題。考慮到近期二手卡車價格的放緩，本季利潤率表現確實非常強勁。這只是反映了PACCAR卡車在二手車市場上的溢價嗎？還是說，考慮到近期二手卡車價格的下跌，您認為這種強勁的利潤率表現還有哪些原因？

Yes, we continue to see a 10% or 15% premium for Kenworth, Peterbilt used trucks in the marketplace. That's been around for a long time that continues. But we also see more and more benefits of the used truck centers that we have been developing and opening over the recent years. We now have 13 new truck centers worldwide. It allows us to sell more used trucks at retail prices instead of wholesale. So all those things have contributed to the finance company. Like we said, the portfolio is in really good shape. Past dues are low, less than 1.5%. So yes, customers continue to pay their bills and the finance company continues to benefit from that.

是的，我們看到市場上肯沃斯和彼得比爾特二手卡車的價格仍然比新車高出10%到15%。這種情況由來已久，而且一直持續至今。但我們也看到，近年來我們開發和開設的二手卡車中心帶來的益處越來越多。目前，我們在全球擁有13家新的卡車中心。這使我們能夠以零售價而非批發價銷售更多二手卡車。所有這些因素都對金融公司有利。正如我們所說，我們的資產組合狀況良好。逾期率很低，低於1.5%。因此，客戶能夠按時還款，金融公司也因此持續受益。

Our next question comes from Tami Zakaria from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞。

So my first question is, how should we think about seasonality of build and delivery in 2023? Is the first quarter delivery number a good run rate for the rest of the year?

所以我的第一個問題是，我們應該如何看待 2023 年的生產和交付的季節性變化？第一季的交付量是否能代表全年剩餘時間的良好水準？

Well, Tami, it's good to talk to you. I think that what we see is we have had increasingly steady production, and that's why you're seeing this first quarter number be pretty high without any of the offline issues of last year that are behind us. So it feels pretty steady there. And I think there's opportunity for us in 2023 as we look forward.

塔米，很高興和你聊天。我認為我們看到的是，我們的生產越來越穩定，這就是為什麼今年第一季的業績相當不錯，而且去年那些離線問題也已經過去了。所以感覺一切都很穩定。展望未來，我認為2023年我們有很多機會。

Got it. That's super helpful. And then my second question is, how should we think about your market share gain expectation this year? Should share capture continue at a clip similar to 2022? Or do you see any reason or chances of that accelerating this year?

明白了，這很有幫助。我的第二個問題是，我們應該如何看待您今年的市佔率成長預期？市佔率的成長速度是否應該與2022年類似？或者您認為今年市佔率成長速度是否有可能加快？

Well, I think that our teams have done a fantastic job around the world of introducing new products over the last 1.5 years on the truck side and as Harrie mentioned on the Parts side and the Financial Services side. So the totality of what benefit PACCAR is providing to our customers is very high. And I think that, that high benefit to them helps us grow our share. And so when our customers are successful and our dealers are successful then we're successful and that's how we think of it.

我認為，過去一年半以來，我們的團隊在全球範圍內，尤其是在卡車領域，以及正如哈利所提到的零件和金融服務領域，都出色地完成了新產品的推出工作。因此，帕卡為客戶帶來的整體利益非常高。我認為，正是這種高利益幫助我們擴大了市場佔有率。所以，當我們的客戶和經銷商取得成功時，我們才能成功，我們就是這樣看待這個問題的。

Our next question comes from Chad Dillard from Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦公司的查德·迪拉德。

So I was hoping you could talk about the -- your industry view on the first half versus second half like production cadence, just given there are a number of crosscurrents with the [car] prebuy as well as like the pent-up demand. So just like how should we think about that production level?

所以我希望您能談談——您行業對上半年和下半年生產節奏的看法，因為目前存在許多與汽車預購以及被壓抑的需求相關的因素。那麼，我們該如何看待這個生產水準呢？

Well, I think that, again, I'll come back to the -- for our sector. We, as an industry, have not built enough trucks over the past few years. And that, combined with excellent new trucks that provide really good operating cost advantage to our customers is incentive for them to continue to buy trucks. I think that the prebuy for 2024 is a nonissue.

嗯，我想，我還是回到我們這個行業的問題。過去幾年，我們整個產業的卡車產量不足。而現在，性能卓越的新卡車能為我們的客戶帶來顯著的營運成本優勢，足以激勵他們繼續購買卡車。我認為2024年的預購計畫不會造成任何問題。

It's too limited and really only California. Customers end up benefiting in most cases when we bring in new products because we bring them features and content and advantages that help them run their operations better. So I think that when we think about the year, it feels steady and strong throughout.

範圍太窄，而且實際上只覆蓋加州。大多數情況下，我們推出新產品最終都會讓客戶受益，因為我們為他們帶來了各種功能、內容和優勢，幫助他們更好地運作。所以我覺得，回顧這一年，整體感覺穩定強勁。

That's helpful. And then just over to your EV offering. Can you just talk about what the composition of production is for this year? And then how has the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act just changed like the conversations that you're having with customers and ultimately, how are you seeing that translate into your demand curve shift in production?

這很有幫助。接下來我們來談談你們的電動車產品。能否簡單介紹一下今年的生產組成？ 《通膨抑制法案》的通過對你們與客戶的溝通產生了哪些影響？最終，你們認為這會如何轉化為生產需求曲線的改變？

Yes. I'll take a couple of comments [within] then Harrie or someone can add in. What we see is, I think what we've shared before and is coming true is that we think that the EV market, the zero-missions vehicle market will just gradually grow. Customers are experimenting with it now, trying to understand it. They're buying chargers, putting in infrastructure around it. PACCAR has 9 electric vehicle models in production, 9. So our teams have done a fantastic job of putting the products out there for customers to get used to and applications that fit all their needs. And we think it will grow. As we've shared previously, we think it will be in the hundreds, and it will stay in the hundreds for a little while and then as regulations come in and experiences become more familiar, it will grow and turn into the thousands and extend from there. So I think that at the moment, it's in the hundreds, and we're well positioned for that growth. And we have some fantastic vehicles out there that are providing great experiences. Anything to add, Harrie?

是的。我先聽聽大家的意見，然後哈利或其他同事可以補充。我們之前也說過，現在看來，電動車市場，也就是零排放車輛市場，將會逐步成長。客戶們正在嘗試，努力了解電動車。他們購買充電樁，並圍繞電動車建造基礎設施。 PACCAR目前有9款電動車在產，沒錯，是9款。我們的團隊在產品上市方面做得非常出色，讓客戶熟悉這些產品，並找到滿足他們各種需求的應用方案。我們認為電動車市場將會成長。正如我們之前所說，我們認為電動車的銷量會達到數百輛，並且會在一段時間內保持在這個水平。隨著相關法規的出台和用戶體驗的不斷完善，銷量將會成長到數千輛，並在此基礎上繼續擴大。所以我認為，目前電動車的銷量在數百輛左右，我們已經為未來的成長做好了充分的準備。我們有一些非常棒的車型，能夠提供卓越的駕駛體驗。哈里，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think that's spot on.

不，我覺得說得完全正確。

Our next question comes from Rob Wertheimer from Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 公司的 Rob Wertheimer。

Preston, you mentioned a couple of times how the industry has been tight, obviously, with COVID over the past couple of years and customers haven't been able to get all the trucks they want. Are you able to split that in North America at all into sort of the straight truck category versus more fleet trucks?

普雷斯頓，你之前幾次提到，過去幾年受新冠疫情影響，整個行業情況非常緊張，客戶無法獲得他們想要的所有卡車。你能否將北美地區的卡車需求細分為廂型車和車隊用車兩類？

Presumably the Infrastructure Act will drive demand for cement and dump and things like that. I don't know if that's happening already, if you're receiving any early orders, if that's more of a '24 effect. And I don't know how the fleet age and tightness on that side of the market compares with the more freight market.

基礎建設法案想必會帶動水泥、垃圾掩埋場等物資的需求。我不知道這種情況是否已經出現，你們是否已經收到早期訂單，也不知道這是否更多是2024年法案生效後的影響。我也不清楚這部分市場的車隊老舊程度和供應緊張程度與貨運市場相比如何。

Rob, it's an interesting way to think about it. I think what we've seen is generally strength in both sides, truck and tractor. Obviously, there's local market impacts there, but the total general statement would be strong demand for trucks and strong demand for tractors.

羅布，這真是一個有趣的思考方式。我認為我們看到的是，卡車和拖拉機市場總體上都很強勁。當然，各地市場會受到一些影響，但總的來說，卡車和拖拉機的需求都很旺盛。

And I would add if anything -- in the straight truck segment, PACCAR has a market share of more than 40%. So any growth -- accelerated growth in that area, Kenworth and Peterbilt will definitely benefit from that.

我還要補充一點——在廂型車領域，PACCAR 的市佔率超過 40%。因此，該領域的任何成長——尤其是加速成長——都必將使 Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 受益。

Okay. Great. And then you touched on supplier component inflation or whatever [through] to you earlier, there's a lot of debate or speculation as to whether the logistics all -- logistics costs are falling or will fall materially. Do you have any sense of the current trend for PACCAR and how that looks into early '23? And I'll stop there.

好的，太好了。您之前提到了供應商零件價格上漲之類的問題，關於物流成本是否正在下降或將大幅下降，目前有許多爭論和猜測。您對PACCAR目前的趨勢以及2023年初的前景有何看法？我就說到這裡吧。

I think the logistics costs have been varied. Obviously, over last year, they increased. And now I think what we're talking about is there's high input costs there. But it's moderating now, and I don't think we're especially concerned about it for 2023.

我認為物流成本波動較大。顯然，與去年相比，物流成本上漲。現在我認為我們討論的是高昂的投入成本。但目前成本正在趨於緩和，我認為我們不必特別擔心2023年的情況。

Our next question comes from Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的傑米庫克。

I guess just 2 questions. One, I was impressed with the incremental margins you guys put up this quarter. I think -- 35.5%, I don't think I've ever seen you put up incremental margins that high. So can you talk about how we should think about normalized incremental margins going forward just with some of the new product introductions that are more favorable to mix versus some things that might be more onetime in nature?

我想問兩個問題。第一，你們本季的增量利潤率給我留下了深刻的印象。 35.5%，我以前從未見過你們達到這麼高的增量利潤率。那麼，能否談談我們應該如何看待未來產品組合中那些更有利於產品組合的新產品推出，以及那些可能更偏向一次性的產品推出所帶來的標準化增量利潤率？

And then my second question is just a follow-up on I know you said the order book is, for your backlog through the second quarter, building through -- starting to build for the third quarter. Is that across the board in North America or Europe, if you could just distinguish between the 2?

我的第二個問題是，我知道您說過，截至第二季末的訂單積壓情況正在好轉，並且已經開始為第三季累積訂單。這種情況是北美還是歐洲普遍如此？能否請您具體說明一下？

Sure. I would -- when we think about it, the entire part of -- team at PACCAR is doing a good job. So our margin performance is based upon providing great trucks that are providing value to our customers. They're realizing those benefits. They've had time with those trucks now. And so that is effective for them and then consequently effective for PACCAR on the truck side.

當然。仔細想想，PACCAR 的整個團隊都做得很好。我們的利潤率表現取決於我們能否提供優質的卡車，為客戶創造價值。客戶已經體驗到了這些卡車帶來的好處，並且已經使用了一段時間。這對客戶來說是有效的，對 PACCAR 的卡車業務也是如此。

And as Harrie did a really nice job of outlining. The Parts business growth has been strong and continues to be strong and we predict it will continue to be strong. So that's helpful to our margins.

正如哈里出色地概述的那樣，零件業務增長強勁，並且持續保持強勁勢頭，我們預計未來也將繼續保持強勁勢頭。這對我們的利潤率大有裨益。

And I also say that -- to kind of tie in your second question is we see strength globally for PACCAR. Europe is doing very well for us. The new trucks there, the XD, XF, XG product lines are the only trucks in the industry in Europe that are taking advantage of the massive dimensions regulations, which allow a different shape. So that gives us a distinct advantage in Europe. So the European market for PACCAR is strong, as is understood by our 17.3% record market share we enjoy there. And I would say that Brazil, Australia, North America, all are doing well. So there's not a single market or a single sector right now. We've just got a great team of people that have done a good job of giving our customers what they want, and those products are working really well.

我還要補充一點——這其實也呼應了您的第二個問題——我們看到PACCAR在全球表現強勁。歐洲市場對我們來說尤其出色。我們在歐洲推出的新型卡車，例如XD、XF和XG系列產品，是歐洲業界唯一利用大型卡車尺寸法規（允許採用不同外型）的卡車。這使我們在歐洲市場擁有顯著優勢。 PACCAR在歐洲市場表現強勁，我們在歐洲的市佔率高達17.3%，創歷史新高。此外，我認為巴西、澳洲和北美市場也都發展得很好。所以，目前並非只有單一市場或單一領域表現優異。我們擁有一支優秀的團隊，他們出色地滿足了客戶的需求，而這些產品也確實獲得了巨大的成功。

Our next question comes from Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的妮可·德布萊斯。

Maybe just starting with a question on Parts. Margins there continue to surprise, [be] upside, look really strong. I guess, how do you think about the ability for that business to continue expanding margins into 2023 and beyond?

或許可以先問一個關於零件業務的問題。該業務的利潤率持續超出預期，成長潛力巨大，看起來非常強勁。我想問的是，您如何看待該業務在2023年及以後繼續擴大利潤率的能力？

Well, Harrie offered some commentary on Q1 growth and said it's very positive. One of the things that we should highlight in addition to some of the ongoing initiatives is our continued integration of PACCAR Parts with our customers and our dealers. I think it's a really important growing part of our business as it adds to recurring revenue strength for the future. So for us, the future looks very bright for the Parts team as they bring data and capabilities into the truck, into the dealerships and into the customers. So there's a higher degree of connectivity there, and that will all be helpful to us.

哈里對第一季的成長發表了評論，並表示情況非常樂觀。除了正在進行的一些舉措之外，我們應該重點強調的一點是，我們持續推進PACCAR零件業務與客戶和經銷商的整合。我認為這是我們業務中一個非常重要的成長部分，因為它有助於增強未來的經常性收入。因此，對我們而言，零件團隊的未來一片光明，因為他們將數據和功能引入卡車、經銷商和客戶。這樣一來，互聯互通程度更高了，這對我們大有裨益。

Got it. And then maybe just a shorter-term question. In the outlook for 1Q delivery of 49,000 to 53,000. Any distinguishing features among the regions, like what you're expecting sequentially for Europe versus North America versus rest of world?

明白了。那還有一個短期問題。關於第一季交付量預計在 49,000 到 53,000 輛之間，各個地區之間有什麼區別嗎？例如，您預計歐洲、北美和世界其他地區的交付量會有哪些環比變化？

If you look at the range for the first quarter, we expect build rates to improve basically in all the geographies we're in. So Australia, Brazil, Europe, North America, we're going to be building more trucks in all of those areas. So it's going to be across the board.

如果看一下第一季的預測，我們預計所有地區的產量都會增加。所以，無論是在澳洲、巴西、歐洲或北美，我們都會在這些地區增加卡車產量。因此，產量提升將是全方位的。

Our next question comes from Matt Elkott from Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 公司的 Matt Elkott。

Last year, we saw some big monthly spikes in Class 8 orders as you guys and other OEMs opened more of the order books like in September, would you say order logs are open for much of 2023 and that should be in a less erratic order numbers month-to-month going forward?

去年，隨著你們和其他 OEM 廠商在 9 月開放更多訂單，我們看到 8 級卡車訂單出現了一些月度大幅增長。您認為 2023 年大部分時間的訂單都已開放，未來每月的訂單數量應該會更加穩定嗎？

I think the following orders on a month-to-month basis is a risky thing to do and to try to get any guidance out of that because sometimes it's fleet buying season, sometimes there's -- different OEMs will handle it differently. For us, we're taking orders in the second half. They're coming in nicely, and it seems like it will fill in 2023 well.

我認為按月預測訂單量風險很大，也很難從中獲得任何指導，因為有時是車隊購買旺季，有時則不然——不同的汽車製造商會採取不同的策略。就我們而言，我們目前在下半年接單。訂單情況良好，看起來2023年的訂單應該可以順利完成。

Got it. And just one more question, Preston. On the -- any update on the natural gas engine you announced back in August with Cummins anything to report on that?

明白了。普雷斯頓，還有一個問題。關於你八月份宣布的與康明斯合作的天然氣發動機，有什麼最新進展嗎？有什麼可以透露的嗎？

No, I think nothing else other than to say that we continue to be the leader in the natural gas offerings in North America, and our partnership with Cummins is fantastic. They're doing a really good job. And I think that the development of -- the ongoing development of natural gas engines is something that will serve a portion of the market. You can get lower emissions in that. And so that's a part of the total portfolio of PACCAR to give our customers what they need.

不，我想說的是，我們仍然是北美天然氣產品的領導者，我們與康明斯的合作非常出色。他們做得非常好。我認為，天然氣引擎的持續研發將服務於一部分市場。天然氣引擎可以降低排放。因此，這是帕卡集團整體產品組合的一部分，旨在滿足客戶的需求。

Our next question comes from Jeff Kauffman from Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Kauffman。

And I'll echo Jamie's comments, a terrific quarter. Two questions. First one, focusing on PACCAR Financial. I was just kind of curious, just a big jump in assets, almost 8% sequentially after assets had kind of been flattish for the previous 4 to 6 quarters. I was just wondering kind of what PACCAR Financial's percentage of PACCAR aggregate unit sales are, if there was a jump in that, that accounted for that differential? Or what would have driven the assets in PFS up so much sequentially?

我同意Jamie的觀點，這季度業績非常出色。我有兩個問題。第一個問題是關於PACCAR Financial的。我很好奇，資產突然大幅成長，季增近8%，而此前4到6個季度資產成長基本持平。我想知道PACCAR Financial佔PACCAR總銷售量的比例是多少？如果這個比例也大幅成長，是否能解釋資產成長的差異？或者說，是什麼因素推動了PFS資產環比成長如此之大？

The assets of PACCAR Financial Services business of course, benefits from a nice [50s] deal of flooring towards the end of the year. Our share is around [26%] -- 26% of the trucks that Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF have sold were financed by PACCAR Financial Services. That's about the same as it was a year ago.

當然，PACCAR金融服務業務的資產受益於年底的一筆不錯的交易（50%左右）。我們的市佔率約為26%——肯沃斯、彼得比爾特和達夫售出的卡車中，有26%是由PACCAR金融服務公司提供融資的。這與一年前的情況大致相同。

I think the big increase that we see in the asset growth impact our financial is the higher prices for trucks. The trucks are sold at a higher price and that creates more assets for the finance company. And that's also one of the reasons that we expect the finance company to continue to perform well as we go into 2023.

我認為資產成長對我們財務狀況影響最大的因素是卡車價格上漲。卡車售價更高，這為金融公司創造了更多資產。這也是我們預期金融公司在2023年將持續保持良好業績的原因之一。

Okay, Harrie. And just real quick. I was at CES, and I saw something I didn't expect was a fuel cell truck, [I know] that you are starting to market. I know that's not going to be big numbers anytime soon, but can you talk a little bit about that?

好的，哈利。就簡單問一個問題。我去參加了CES展，看到了一款我意想不到的燃料電池卡車，我知道你們正在開始推向市場。我知道短期內銷量不會很大，但你能簡單談談這款卡車嗎？

Sure. When we think about the technologies that will bring us to the future, we think diesel will be the dominant path forward for the next several years. But we're all trying to understand whether it will be driven by battery electric, hydrogen combustion or hydrogen fuel cell as the capabilities for 0 emissions products and PACCAR has made prudent investments into each of those technologies. So we understand them. So that if 1 brings a distinct advantage to our customers, we're ready to offer it to them.

當然。展望未來，我們認為柴油動力在未來幾年仍將是主流。但我們都在努力探索，究竟是電池電動、氫燃料燃燒或氫燃料電池能夠實現零排放產品，而帕卡公司已對每項技術都進行了審慎的投資。因此，我們對它們都有所了解。如果某項技術能為客戶帶來顯著優勢，我們隨時準備提供給他們。

And as you noted, we had both trucks. We had a battery electric and a hydrogen fuel cell at CES because we're working on both of them. And we'll put in the market what makes sense financially.

正如您所說，我們在CES上同時展示了兩款卡車：一款是純電動卡車，另一款是氫燃料電池卡車，因為我們正在研發這兩種車型。我們會根據經濟效益，選擇最適合的車型推向市場。

And the fuel cell truck, I'm assuming that's a Toyota engine with the partnership, but is that a commercial-grade engine? Or is that more passenger cells that you're using?

至於那輛燃料電池卡車，我猜它使用的是豐田的發動機，但那是商用等級的發動機嗎？還是說你們使用的是乘用車等級的燃料電池？

I think what we're doing is developing a product specific for the truck market, and we're doing that in close collaboration with them.

我認為我們正在做的是開發專門針對卡車市場的產品，我們正在與他們密切合作。

Our next question comes from Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

So if you guys hold this 16%, 17% gross margin for the year, it will be your best gross margin ever. I guess, how should we think about the new range of gross margins through a cycle? Meaning if in the last decade, it's been 12% to 15%, give or take, is the right range. What do you think the new range is for gross margin through a cycle?

所以，如果你們今年能維持16%到17%的毛利率，這將是你們有史以來最高的毛利率。我想，我們該如何看待一個週期內毛利率的新區間呢？也就是說，如果過去十年毛利率在12%到15%左右是比較合理的範圍，那麼你們認為一個週期內毛利率的新區間應該是多少呢？

I think of it as PACCAR has an incredibly capable team of people around the world, and they're doing a fantastic job of giving our customers the trucks and transportation solutions they need. This is a really strong company. It's a growing company in all elements of the business. So we look forward to the future pretty well. And the margins will be good, we think, but there'll obviously be what the market is?

我認為，PACCAR在全球擁有一支能力超群的團隊，他們出色地為客戶提供所需的卡車和運輸解決方案。這是一家實力雄厚的公司，業務各方面都在蓬勃發展。因此，我們對未來充滿信心。我們認為利潤率會很不錯，但當然，最終還是要看市場狀況。

Okay. And then is there -- I know there's some mix changes with wholesale versus retail on used. Is there any kind of sensitivity you can give us on used prices and the FinCo margins, earnings? Any help you can help us with?

好的。還有一點——我知道二手車批發和零售的比例有所變化。您能否提供一些關於二手車價格與金融公司利潤率和收益的敏感度分析？您還能幫我們做些什麼？

Used truck prices have come down a little bit from the historical highs earlier last year. But I would say that even at today's valuations, used trucks are a very, very attractive business for the finance company. Selling used trucks and making profits while we do so. .

二手卡車價格已從去年年初的歷史高點略有回落。但即便以目前的估值來看，二手卡車對金融公司而言仍是一項極具吸引力的業務。我們既能銷售二手卡車，又能從中獲利。

Do you think FinCo is a business that can grow earnings this year?

你認為FinCo今年能獲利成長嗎？

We don't guide that specifically on the FinCo earnings for the year. But I would say that 2023 will be another excellent year for the finance company.

我們不會對金融公司當年的獲利做出具體預測。但我認為，2023年對這家金融公司來說又將是輝煌的一年。

Our next question comes from Miguel Borrega from BNP Paribas Exane.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行Exane的Miguel Borrega。

A couple of questions from me. The first one, just on your market guidance for Europe and North America. Just wanted to understand why would you not expect more growth from both markets, assuming supply chains keep easing. So what could be kind of the headwind on production for 2022?

我有幾個問題。第一個問題是關於您對歐洲和北美市場的預測。我想了解一下，假設供應鏈持續寬鬆，為什麼您不預期這兩個市場會有更大的成長？那麼，2022年生產方面可能有哪些不利因素呢？

And also, why are you less positive on European markets versus North America, given that your exit rates are much stronger in Europe versus the U.S.

另外，鑑於您在歐洲的退出率遠高於美國，為什麼您對歐洲市場的信心不如對北美市場的信心強？

Well, I think we're positive on the European market like we're positive on the North American market. And I think that we feel good about the year. I think that our production rates are increasing. Obviously, we see that in the fourth quarter, first quarter production plans. And though there could still be uncertainties in the [supply] base and that could have an impact. But right now, it looks pretty good.

我認為我們對歐洲市場和北美市場一樣持樂觀態度。而且，我對今年的前景也感到樂觀。我認為我們的生產力正在提高。顯然，我們在第四季和第一季的生產計劃中都看到了這一點。儘管供應基礎方面可能仍存在一些不確定性，這可能會產生影響。但就目前而言，情況看起來相當不錯。

I would like to emphasize, too, that the supply base has been improving, but we still see uncertainties in the supply base. And that's why we have the ranges that we have for the first quarter and for the markets for North America and Europe for the entire year.

我還想強調一點，雖然供應基礎有所改善，但我們仍然看到供應基礎存在不確定性。正因如此，我們才對第一季以及北美和歐洲市場全年的供應情況設定了相應的區間預期。

Great. And then my second question, just on shareholder returns. This is obviously a record net cash position. Can you give us a sense on how much cash you need to run the business? And how are you thinking about capital allocation going forward?

好的。我的第二個問題是關於股東回報的。目前貴公司淨現金部位顯然創歷史新高。您能否大致說明一下貴公司營運需要多少現金？以及您未來是如何規劃資本配置的？

Well, we have a very good history of how we allocate capital, and we returned excellent returns to our shareholders. As we noted, a 17% return last year. We pay dividends every year. That goes well for our shareholders. And we use money in a smart way, make future investments in a way that's also good for our shareholders so. Anything you would add, Harrie?

嗯，我們在資本配置方面一直做得很好，也為股東帶來了豐厚的回報。正如我們之前提到的，去年的回報率達到了17%。我們每年都會派發股息。這對我們的股東來說是好事。而且我們善用資金，進行未來的投資，這對我們的股東也是有利的。哈里，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

It's nice to see that the cash balance increase to more than $6 billion at the end of December. So that's really a nice milestone that we achieved. And bear in mind, we paid a nice year-end dividend, almost $1 billion that we paid it in January. So we use the cash to make the investments that Preston mentioned, but also to make a nice return for our shareholders.

很高興看到截至12月底，現金餘額超過60億美元。這確實是一個值得慶祝的里程碑。別忘了，我們在1月支付了近10億美元的年終股利。我們利用這些現金進行普雷斯頓所提到的投資，同時也為股東創造了豐厚的回報。

Next question comes from Michael Feniger from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的麥可費尼格。

Just two questions, one on the longer term and the shorter term. Just first off, is there anything you think the industry, the OEM learned in 2022 that is more sticky and structural in terms of managing orders, production pricing strategies, even as production bottlenecks eased and normalize? Is there anything that sticks out to you that could be kind of a more structural thing going forward, maybe pricing discipline with some of these more public players. Love to get any comment on that.

我有兩個問題，一個是關於長期的，一個是關於短期的。首先，您認為在2022年，OEM廠商在訂單管理、生產定價策略等方面，有哪些經驗教訓是更具持久性和結構性的，即使生產瓶頸已經緩解並趨於正常化？您認為有哪些方面可能會成為未來更具結構性的影響，例如一些上市公司的定價紀律？非常期待您的任何看法。

I think in answer to that, I think our teams do a fantastic job of working closely with our customers to understand what their needs are and making sure we meet their needs as quickly as possible. I think the team, especially in 2022 did a great job. Our production teams, our purchasing teams, our materials teams and our suppliers together of producing as many trucks as we could for the customers with that strong demand. And I think that PACCAR has a long history of trying to work well in all market conditions, and I think we'll continue with that.

我認為，對於這個問題，我們的團隊做得非常出色，他們與客戶緊密合作，了解他們的需求，並確保我們盡快滿足這些需求。我認為團隊，尤其是在2022年，表現非常出色。我們的生產團隊、採購團隊、物料團隊和供應商齊心協力，盡可能多地生產卡車，以滿足客戶的強勁需求。我認為，PACCAR一直致力於在各種市場環境下保持良好的運營，我相信我們將繼續保持這一優勢。

Understood. And just for a more shorter-term question, some market participants point to a rollover in freight spot rates and this gap between spot rates and contract rates. I'd love to know how you view that. Is that just a smaller portion of the customer base? Doesn't really accurately reflect maybe the strength of the freight [market] or pent-up demand. Just curious how you -- in your seat, how you view that distinction.

明白了。另外，還有一個更短期的問題，一些市場參與者指出貨運現貨價格有滾動波動，以及現貨價格和合約價格之間的差距。我很想知道您對此有何看法。這是否只是客戶群中較小的一部分？或許並不能準確反映貨運市場的強勁程度或被壓抑的需求。我只是好奇，從您的角度來看，您如何看待這種差異。

I think we try to take a broad look at it and think that freight tonnage is up over 3%, 3.7% for the year in 2022. So that's a good indicator of what's really going on out there. And as I've shared and we've talked a lot about, I think older trucks are more expensive to operate. And with our introduction of new trucks, coupled with strong tonne miles being driven, that's good for PACCAR and bodes well for a strong year.

我認為我們應該從整體來看這個問題，並認為2022年貨運噸位成長超過3%，達到3.7%。這很好地反映了當前的市場狀況。正如我之前提到的，我們也多次討論過，老舊卡車的營運成本更高。隨著我們引進新卡車，加上強勁的貨運里程，這對PACCAR來說是個好消息，也預示著2022年將取得良好的業績。

Our next question comes from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

I just want to go back to the really strong margin performance and the outlook. So when we look back when you were posting anywhere close to this level of margins, your Parts margins is up significantly from that time frame. OEM margins are a touch lower than where they were in 2006. And I'm wondering, Preston, just earlier in the conversation, you mentioned the improved fuel economy and other features. Are we at a point where we can expect new truck margins to also be up versus the last cycle as well as we think about what that looks like over the next couple of quarters?

我想再談談目前強勁的利潤率表現和前景。回顧過去，你們的利潤率上次達到如此高的水平時，零件利潤率已經顯著提升。 OEM利潤率略低於2006年的水準。普雷斯頓，我想問一下，剛才你提到了燃油經濟性的提升和其他一些特性。考慮到未來幾季的情況，我們是否可以預期新卡車的利潤率也會比上個週期有所成長？

What I think I'd point you towards is the good performance of the trucks. Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF have brought out trucks that are really performing well. I mean they're winning awards, they're the most fuel-efficient trucks in the industry, they're most desired trucks in the industry, and that bodes well for our truck margins.

我想重點指出的是卡車的出色性能。肯沃斯、彼得比爾特和達夫都推出了性能卓越的卡車。我的意思是，它們屢獲殊榮，是業內最省油的卡車，也是最受歡迎的卡車，這對我們的卡車利潤率來說是個好兆頭。

Okay. And then you spoke about a new approach to the telematics part of the business. Can you just talk about the revenue opportunity for PACCAR. If you can charge $20 per month per truck on your field population, that would suggest a pretty healthy subscription opportunity. I'm wondering what could the economics look like to you folks based on the partnership structure? And how do you think about the cadence of the product rollout?

好的。您剛才提到了遠端資訊處理業務的新方法。能否談談PACCAR的收入機會？如果能以每輛卡車每月20美元的價格收費，那麼訂閱收入應該相當可觀。我想知道，基於這種合作模式，你們覺得經濟效益如何？產品推廣的節奏如何？

We think that there's a growing business in connected vehicles, and it's growing because we have our vehicles connected. There's a lot of interesting and useful data to our customers on the vehicles that we have. We've offered our PACCAR Connect system. And that PACCAR Connect system is now going to be intertwined with the Platform Science's operating system and application stores. So with the combination of those, it gives us an opportunity for further growth. That's one thing.

我們認為連網汽車市場正在蓬勃發展，而它之所以能夠發展壯大，是因為我們自己的車輛也實現了連網。我們能夠為客戶提供大量關於車輛的有趣且有用的數據。我們已經推出了 PACCAR Connect 系統。現在，PACCAR Connect 系統將與 Platform Science 的作業系統和應用程式商店深度整合。因此，這兩者的結合為我們提供了進一步成長的機會。這是一方面。

I'd also say that our Parts team is working closely with the data that comes from the truck. Our Financial Services team works closely with the data that comes from the truck. All to the benefit of our customers and our dealers, and we think that will be a growing opportunity in recurring revenue.

我還想說，我們的零件團隊和金融服務團隊都在密切利用卡車提供的數據。所有這些都將惠及我們的客戶和經銷商，我們認為這將帶來不斷增長的經常性收入。

And can you just talk about your expected economics? What do you expect to charge for the enhanced features for some comparable systems that are available aftermarket, they do go as high as $20 per month. Is that feasible for your offering?

您能談談您的預期經濟效益嗎？您打算如何為一些類似系統的增強功能定價？市面上一些同類系統的升級功能價格高達每月 20 美元。這個價格對您的產品是否可行？

I think it's going to vary depending on the customer and the suite of technologies that they take.

我認為這將取決於客戶以及他們採用的技術套件。

(Operator Instructions) Our last question will come from David Raso from Evercore ISI.

（操作說明）我們的最後一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

I might try to squeeze in 2 quickly, a little longer term and one short term, sorry. Longer term, the idea of a prebuy mid-decade, I am curious if you think about your builds for the industry yourselves in '24 being influenced by an assumed recovery in '25 and '26, the prebuy before the '27 models are out in sort of spring in '26. Just theoretically, should that provide a higher floor to '24 builds because of we've seen in the past, obviously, some of these prebuys get well ahead of supply. Is it being too [acute] thinking about '24 builds, whatever macro review someone may have that they can be influenced by somewhat assurance -- some sense of a pre-buy in '25 and '26. And then I'll be quick on the near-term question, but if you can answer that...

我可能會盡快擠出時間問兩個問題，一個是比較長期的，一個是短期的，抱歉。關於長期問題，也就是十年中期的預購計劃，我很好奇你們在2024年為行業量產車型時，是否會受到2025年和2026年市場復甦預期的影響，也就是在2026年春季2027款車型上市前進行預購。理論上來說，鑑於我們過去的經驗，一些預購訂單顯然會遠遠超過供應量，那麼這是否會為2024年的量產車型提供更高的底線？考慮2024年的量產車型是否過於激進？無論人們基於何種宏觀考量，他們是否會受到2025年和2026年預購計畫的影響？接下來，我會快速回答一個短期問題，如果您能解答的話…

David, I'm going to let you work that. That's not how we are looking at it. We just think about the products we're offering, the benefit to the customers and making sure that we're the leader in the market with those products. So how (inaudible).

大衛，這個問題就交給你來琢磨吧。我們不是這樣看待這個問題的。我們只考慮我們提供的產品，以及這些產品能為客戶帶來的好處，並確保我們憑藉這些產品在市場上保持領先地位。所以，如何（聽不清楚）？

Are there conversations with customers (inaudible) about...

是否有與客戶進行的對話（聽不清楚）…

Yes. Of course we do. But the market will be in '24 and '25, I think, is beyond this call.

是的，我們當然有。但我認為，2024年和2025年的市場走勢，現在預測還為時過早。

Okay. And then real quick on the near term. The gap between used and new price on tractor, sleepers is getting obviously a lot wider than it was 6 months ago. How does that usually manifest itself? Is that more about maybe residual values getting marked down a little bit on leases? Like how does that usually begin to flow into your business model when you see the gap between your used tractors and the new prices widening the way it's been the last few months?

好的。那麼，我們快速談談近期的情況。二手拖拉機和新拖拉機的價格差距顯然比六個月前大了許多。這種情況通常會如何表現？是不是因為租賃的殘值有下降？當二手拖拉機和新拖拉機的價格差距像過去幾個月這樣擴大時，這通常會如何影響你們的商業模式？

David, I would say that both on tractors and sleepers. PACCAR Financial does really well selling those trucks at premium pricing and it's part of the success of the company that we build trucks that get a premium, whether it's in a new truck market or in the used truck market and benefits the finance company and it benefits the truck divisions as well.

戴維，我認為無論是牽引車還是臥舖卡車都是如此。 PACCAR Financial 公司以高價銷售這些卡車做得非常出色，而我們製造的卡車能夠獲得溢價，無論是在新車市場還是二手車市場，這都是公司成功的一部分，不僅有利於金融公司，也有利於卡車部門。

There are no other questions in queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有其他補充說明嗎？

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call, and thank you, operator.

感謝各位參與通話，也謝謝接線生。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，PACCAR的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您可以斷開連線了。