帕卡 (PCAR) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has any objection, they can disconnect at this time.

早安，歡迎參加帕卡公司2023年第二季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）本次電話會議正在錄音，如有任何異議，請立即斷開連線。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我謹介紹帕卡公司投資者關係總監肯‧黑斯廷斯先生。黑斯廷斯先生，請開始。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Brice Poplawski, Vice President and Controller.

早安.歡迎各位透過電話和網路直播收聽節目的朋友們。我是PACCAR投資者關係總監肯‧黑斯廷斯。今天早上與我一同出席的還有執行長普雷斯頓·費特、總裁兼財務長哈里·希​​珀斯以及副總裁兼財務總監布萊斯·波普拉夫斯基。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the Investor Relations page of paccar.com.

與以往的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有參與電話會議的媒體成員以僅收聽模式參與。今天公佈的部分資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的總體經濟和競爭狀況。更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及paccar.com網站的投資者關係頁面。

I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

現在我來介紹普雷斯頓費特。

Good morning. Harrie Schippers, Brice Poplawski, Ken Hastings, and I will update you on our second quarter financial results and business highlights. I'll start by saying thank you to PACCAR's great employees who continue to deliver excellent results and provide our customers with the best trucks and transportation solutions in the world. PACCAR achieved record revenues and net income in the second quarter due to its excellent portfolio of new trucks, robust aftermarket parts business, healthy financial services performance and continued strong market demand.

早安.我和Harrie Schippers、Brice Poplawski、Ken Hastings將向大家報告我們第二季的財務業績和業務亮點。首先，我要感謝PACCAR的優秀員工，他們持續創造卓越業績，為我們的客戶提供全球一流的卡車和運輸解決方案。 PACCAR第二季營收和淨利潤均創歷史新高，這得益於我們出色的新卡車產品組合、強勁的售後零件業務、穩健的金融服務表現以及持續強勁的市場需求。

PACCAR's revenues increased 24% to $8.9 billion. Net income increased 70% to $1.22 billion. PACCAR Parts second quarter revenues increased by more than 11% to $1.6 billion. Parts pretax profits were $419 million, 19% higher than the second quarter of last year. Truck, Parts and Other gross margins were excellent in the second quarter at 18.8%, up from 14.4% in the same period last year.

帕卡集團（PACCAR）營收成長24%至89億美元，淨利成長70%至12.2億美元。帕卡零件業務第二季營收成長超過11%至16億美元，稅前利潤為4.19億美元，較去年同期成長19%。卡車、零件及其他業務的毛利率在第二季度表現出色，達到18.8%，高於去年同期的14.4%。

PACCAR is delivering structurally higher margins as a result of our investments in the industry-leading new range of premium trucks our sophisticated and successful aftermarket parts business and as a result of our overall global growth. PACCAR's innovative research and development programs and partnerships provide our customers with the right products and technology to help them optimize their operations.

由於我們對業界領先的新型高端卡車系列、成熟且成功的售後零件業務以及整體全球成長的持續投入，PACCAR 的利潤率實現了結構性提升。 PACCAR 的創新研發專案和合作夥伴關係為客戶提供合適的產品和技術，幫助他們優化營運。

During the second quarter, we are pleased to announce the expansion of our strategic partnership with Toyota to develop and bring to market 0 emissions hydrogen fuel cell-powered Peterbilt and Kenworth trucks. PACCAR's powertrain portfolio of hydrogen fuel cell, hydrogen combustion, battery electric and clean diesel technologies position the company and our customers for an excellent future.

在第二季度，我們欣然宣布擴大與豐田的戰略合作夥伴關係，共同開發並向市場推出零排放的氫燃料電池動力彼得比爾特和肯沃斯卡車。帕卡集團在氫燃料電池、氫燃燒、電池電動和清潔柴油技術方面的動力總成產品組合，將為公司和我們的客戶帶來美好的未來。

PACCAR Financial also had an excellent quarter, achieving profits of $145 million due to its high-quality portfolio and positive used truck results.

PACCAR Financial 也取得了非常出色的季度業績，由於其高品質的投資組合和良好的二手卡車銷售業績，實現了 1.45 億美元的利潤。

Looking at the truck market. Industry build has been gradually increasing this year. And in the U.S. and Canada, we estimate the Class 8 market to be in the range of 290,000 to 320,000 trucks. The 2023 European truck market is expected to be in a range of 300,000 to 330,000 units. We project the South American above 16-tonne truck market to be in a range of 105,000 to 115,000 vehicles this year. South America is an important region for PACCAR's geographic growth. DAF Brasil has done an excellent job growing market share since we opened the business 10 years ago, achieving a record 9.2% share in the first 6 months of this year. As we look forward to the rest of this year and 2024, the truck markets are expected to remain healthy, and PACCAR will continue to deliver excellent performance.

縱觀卡車市場，今年產業產量持續成長。我們預計美國和加拿大的8級卡車市場規模將在29萬至32萬輛之間。 2023年歐洲卡車市場規模預計將在30萬至33萬輛之間。我們預計今年南美洲16噸以上卡車市場規模將在10.5萬至11.5萬輛之間。南美是PACCAR業務成長的重要區域。自10年前在巴西開展業務以來，DAF巴西公司在市佔率成長方面表現出色，今年上半年更是創下了9.2%的市佔率紀錄。展望今年剩餘時間和2024年，我們預期卡車市場將保持健康發展，PACCAR也將繼續取得優異的業績。

Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial Services and other business highlights.

哈里希珀斯將介紹 PACCAR 零件、PACCAR 金融服務和其他業務亮點的最新情況。

Thanks, Preston. PACCAR delivered 51,900 trucks during the second quarter. Supply chain is improving, though occasional supplier shortages still limit production. We estimate third quarter deliveries to be in the range of 48,000 to 52,000 trucks. The third quarter delivery estimate reflects the normal summer shutdown in Europe. PACCAR achieved strong Truck, Parts and Other gross margins of 18.8% in the second quarter. We estimate third quarter gross margins to be in the 18% to 19% range, reflecting continued high-level performance of PACCAR's Truck and Parts business.

謝謝普雷斯頓。帕卡公司第二季交付了51,900輛卡車。供應鏈正在改善，但偶爾出現的供應商缺貨仍然限制了產量。我們預計第三季交付量將在48,000至52,000輛之間。第三季交付量的預估反映了歐洲正常的夏季停工期。帕卡公司第二季卡車、零件及其他業務的毛利率高達18.8%。我們預計第三季毛利率將在18%至19%之間，這反映了帕卡公司卡車及零件業務持續的高水準表現。

PACCAR Parts achieved strong second quarter gross margins of 31.6%. The Parts business continued its track record of high sales and profit growth, with quarterly sales growing by 11% and profits by 19% compared to the same period last year. PACCAR Parts is focused on expanding its customer base, and providing a full range of technology-enabled transportation solutions is driving its excellent results.

PACCAR Parts第二季毛利率高達31.6%。該業務延續了以往強勁的銷售和利潤成長勢頭，季度銷售額較去年同期成長11%，利潤較去年同期成長19%。 PACCAR Parts致力於拓展客戶群，並提供全方位的科技賦能型運輸解決方案，這正是其優異績效的關鍵。

In the last 5 years, annual part sales have grown by 73%, and Parts profits have increased by 136%. The consistent performance of Parts as a high-growth, high-margin business is structurally beneficial to PACCAR. Third quarter Parts sales are expected to increase 6% to 8% compared to the same period last year. PACCAR Parts' growth is supported by a network of 18 distribution centers, more than 2,000 dealer locations and 250 independent TRP stores as well as technologies like managed dealer inventory and innovative e-commerce systems. PACCAR Parts continues to expand and will open a new distribution center in Massbach, Germany next year. Each new distribution center increases the number of dealers and customers benefiting from receiving parts on the same or next day.

過去五年，零件年銷售額成長了73%，利潤成長了136%。零件業務作為一項高成長、高利潤的業務，其持續穩定的業績對PACCAR集團的結構性發展大有裨益。預計第三季零件銷售額將比去年同期成長6%至8%。 PACCAR零件業務的成長得益於其遍布全國的18個配送中心、2000多個經銷商網點和250家獨立的TRP門店，以及經銷商庫存管理和創新型電子商務系統等先進技術。 PACCAR零件業務持續擴張，明年將在德國馬斯巴赫開設新的配送中心。每新增一家配送中心，就能讓更多經銷商和顧客享受到當日或隔天送達零件的便利性。

PACCAR Financial Services' second quarter pretax income was a solid $145 million. The Financial Services business benefited from excellent portfolio quality and good used truck results. Used truck prices have moderated but are historically strong. With its larger portfolio and superb credit quality, PACCAR Financial is having another very good year.

PACCAR金融服務公司第二季稅前利潤穩健，達1.45億美元。金融服務業務受益於優質的資產組合和良好的二手卡車銷售表現。二手卡車價格雖有所回落，但仍處於歷史高點。憑藉其規模更大的資產組合和卓越的信貸質量，PACCAR金融服務公司又迎來了一個非常成功的年份。

PACCAR has invested $7.5 billion in new and expanded facilities, innovative products and new technologies during the past decade. These investments have created the newest and most impressive lineup of trucks in the industry and will contribute to excellent performance for many years. PACCAR's after tax return on invested capital improved to an industry-leading 35% in the first half of the year, up from 22% in the same period last year. Capital expenditures are projected to be $625 million to $675 million this year, and research and development expenses are estimated to be $400 million to $430 million.

過去十年，PACCAR已投資75億美元用於新建和擴建工廠、創新產品和新技術研發。這些投資打造了業內最新、最令人印象深刻的卡車產品線，並將助力公司在未來多年保持卓越表現。今年上半年，PACCAR的稅後投資報酬率提升至業界領先的35%，高於去年同期的22%。預計今年資本支出為6.25億至6.75億美元，研發費用預計為4億至4.3億美元。

PACCAR's industry-leading truck lineup, highly efficient manufacturing operations, best-in-class Parts and Financial Services businesses and the continued development of advanced technologies position the company well for today and for the future.

PACCAR 擁有業界領先的卡車產品線、高效的製造營運、一流的零件和金融服務業務，以及先進技術的持續發展，這使得公司在當下和未來都處於有利地位。

Thank you. We'd be pleased to answer your questions.

謝謝。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is from Steve Volkmann from Jefferies.

（操作說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 公司的 Steve Volkmann。

Preston, since you brought it up, I'm curious if you might be willing to provide any additional thoughts on 2024 being a robust year. Do you guys have orders for '24? And how much visibility and how much confidence do you have that 2024 can be a robust year?

普雷斯頓，既然你提到了，我很好奇你是否願意就2024年是否會是業績強勁的一年發表一些看法。你們2024年的訂單狀況如何？你們對2024年業績強勁的前景有多大把握和信心？

Well, Steve, it's good to talk to you. Thanks for the question. I'd start by saying being full for 2023 right now is a great place to be operating from. The markets continue to be healthy for us around the world, and what we see is that we have great conversations going on with our customers, and so we're having great conversations around what the trucks are going to be and their order needs are going to be for next year. There are some sectors out there that are exceptionally good. That's LTL, vocational and otherwise, and demand is expected to be strong.

史蒂夫，很高興和你聊天。謝謝你的提問。首先我想說，目前2023年的訂單已經全部訂滿，這對我們來說是一個非常好的情況。全球市場依然對我們有利，而且我們和客戶之間的溝通非常順暢，大家都在積極探討明年的卡車需求和訂單狀況。有些領域的市場表現特別強勁，例如零擔貨運、專車運輸等等，預計這些領域的需求將會非常強勁。

Okay. Maybe I'll pivot again on '24. But if '24 were to be a down year in any amount, you talked about sort of structurally higher margins, I'm curious how you guys think the decremental margins would look if there was a decrement.

好的。也許我會在2024年再次調整策略。但如果2024年出現任何程度的下滑，你之前提到過結構性更高的利潤率，我很想知道如果出現下滑，你們認為利潤率會如何改變。

Well, Steve, you know we don't provide 2024 guidance on this call. I think you do hit up on a really good point, though, which is the structural improvements of PACCAR compared to a few years ago are significant, right? The product investments we've made; industry-leading trucks we have in Europe that are significantly outperforming; the growth we have in South America, which is significant; the new medium-duty products in North America; and the fact that PACCAR Parts is doing such a great job with being a high-margin, high-growth, technology-driven transportation solutions provider for our customers, all of those things contribute to a great future.

史蒂夫，你知道我們這次電話會議不提供2024年的績效指引。不過，你剛才說的確實很有道理，那就是跟幾年前相比，PACCAR的結構性改進非常顯著，對吧？我們對產品進行了投資；我們在歐洲擁有領先業界的卡車，這些卡車的性能遠超同類產品；我們在南美實現了顯著增長；我們在北美推出了新的中型卡車產品；而且PACCAR零部件業務部門作為一家高利潤、高增長、技術驅動的運輸解決方案提供商，為客戶提供服務，所有這些因素都為我們美好的未來奠定了基礎。

Our next question is from Tami Zakaria from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞。

So my first question is, since your order books are full for this year, like you said, you probably have visibility into fourth quarter deliveries as well. So should the fourth quarter deliveries be sequentially better than the third quarter or possibly the highest delivery quarter of the year? Or how should we think about 4Q versus 3Q?

所以我的第一個問題是，既然你們今年的訂單已經排滿了，正如你們所說，你們可能也已經掌握了第四季的交付情況。那麼，第四季的交付量會比第三季季增，還是會成為全年交付量最高的季度？或者我們應該如何看待第四季和第三季的情況？

Yes. What I would think about is the second half, Tami, and the second half being a strong second half with the full backlog. You have some differences in the markets in Q3 and Q4, and Q3 in Europe has summer shutdowns. So that affects things. In North America in Q4, there's more holidays as well. But in general, we will be trying to increase build. We still continue to look at the market as being somewhat constrained in terms of supply base. That periodically affects us and everyone else and so that may have a pacing item on the deliveries in Q4.

是的。塔米，我考慮的是下半年，而且下半年要強勁成長，積壓訂單全部到位。第三季和第四季的市場情況有所不同，歐洲第三季有夏季停工，所以這會產生影響。北美第四季也有更多假期。但總的來說，我們會努力提高產量。我們仍然認為市場供應基礎存在一定程度的緊張。這種情況會週期性地影響我們和其他所有企業，因此可能會對第四季度的交付速度產生一定影響。

Got it. And then can you comment on what was the price realization for trucks and parts in the second quarter? And do you expect price realization to sequentially decline in the back half?

明白了。那麼，您能否談談第二季度卡車及零件的實際售價情況？您預計下半年實際售價會季減嗎？

I'll let Harrie kind of talk about that one.

這件事就讓哈利來談談吧。

Pricing for trucks in the second quarter was up 15%. We saw significant cost increases still in the order of magnitude of 9% for trucks. And then for parts, cost increases were a little higher, but more than offset by price increases for parts of around 13%.

第二季卡車價格上漲了15%。我們看到卡車成本也出現了顯著成長，漲幅約為9%。零件成本漲幅略高，但被零件價格約13%的漲幅所抵銷。

Any comments on the back half pricing outlook?

對下半年的價格前景有何看法？

No, with all the new products and the structural improvements that Preston just explained, I think we're in a good position to maintain our pricing discipline.

不，正如普雷斯頓剛才解釋的那樣，有了所有的新產品和結構改進，我認為我們有能力保持價格紀律。

I think Harrie shared that we expect margins of 18% to 19% in Q3, and I think that's kind of a testament of how we see the price cost analysis going.

我認為哈利曾說過，我們預計第三季的利潤率將達到 18% 至 19%，我認為這在某種程度上證明了我們對價格成本分析的看法是正確的。

Our next question is from Chad Dillard from Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦公司的查德·迪拉德。

As you look -- as you think about price/cost over, say, the next 12 months and also contemplate the pullback we've seen in raw material costs, do you think the market is strong enough for you to actually increase that price/cost spread? Or do you think you'll need to give some back? Trying to understand how you're thinking about managing that balance.

展望未來12個月的價格/成本走勢，並考慮到原材料成本的回落，您認為市場是否足夠強勁，能夠讓您擴大價格/成本差距？或者您認為需要做出一些讓步？我想了解您是如何考慮如何平衡這兩者之間的。

I guess we don't spend as much time thinking about it in those terms. We continue to think about it in terms of the relationships we have with our customers, the strength of the product performance and the value that provides to the customer. Like as we've shared before, the new trucks are providing at least 7% improvement in fuel economy, which is bringing thousands and thousands of dollars of benefit to our customers, the trucks that these drivers want. And so I think our customers make a good decision around trying to buy the best product for their operations, which are PACCAR's products, and that gives us a good pricing position as a premium brand in the market.

我想我們並沒有花太多時間從這個角度思考問題。我們仍會從與客戶的關係、產品性能以及產品為客戶帶來的價值等方面來考慮。正如我們之前分享過的，新卡車的燃油經濟性至少提高了7%，這為我們的客戶帶來了數千美元的收益，而這些卡車正是這些司機所需要的。因此，我認為我們的客戶在選擇最適合他們經營的產品時做出了明智的決定，而PACCAR的產品正是他們所需要的，這使我們作為市場上的高端品牌擁有了良好的定價優勢。

Cost. Well, cost is something that you get to follow as much as us, and we look at the world around us and see some movement in costs in positive ways and still labor pressures on the other side of it. So it's a little bit ambiguous.

成本。嗯，成本問題也是你們和我們一樣關注的，我們觀察周圍的世界，看到成本方面有一些積極的進展，但另一方面，勞動市場仍然存在壓力。所以情況有點複雜。

Got it. Okay. And just second question. So there are some industry forecasts that are calling for something on the order of like a 15% cut of production in the coming year, and I'm certainly not holding you up to that. But how should we think about your ability to grow your Parts business in such an environment?

明白了。好的。第二個問題。一些產業預測認為，明年產量可能會下降15%左右，我當然不是說你們的產量一定會下降。但是，在這種環境下，我們該如何看待你們零件業務的成長能力呢？

I think the Parts business is growing for several reasons. One is it's because our ability to get parts to our customers in the same day or next day has changed a lot. So we are the desired place to go for parts for people. I think the application of technology by our team has been an enabler as well. Like we make sure that our dealers have the right parts that they need and support. And I think that understanding our customers' needs is how we think about it. So Parts is really a transportation solutions provider, which makes them the go-to source for customers. And we think we're the leader in that space, and that helps us grow the business through all parts of the coming years.

我認為零件業務成長的原因有很多。首先，我們能夠當天或隔天將零件送達客戶手中，這大大提升了我們的效率。因此，我們成為了客戶購買零件的首選供應商。其次，我認為我們團隊對科技的應用也起了推動作用。例如，我們確保經銷商擁有所需的零件並提供支援。我認為，了解客戶需求是我們思考問題的關鍵。因此，零件業務實際上是運輸解決方案提供商，這使我們成為客戶的首選供應商。我們相信我們在這個領域處於領先地位，這有助於我們在未來幾年持續發展業務。

Our next question comes from Rob Wertheimer from Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 公司的 Rob Wertheimer。

Just a mechanical question on how you typically open orders for the year forward. Are you still holding back at all just on containment and other uncertainty? And then a real market-based question on vocational trucks, whether you expect or have already seen some of the strength that may come with the infrastructure bill or general construction appearing there and whether there are any constraints on that market growth from body building or other capacity issues.

關於貴公司通常如何開放未來一年的訂單，我有一個技術方面的問題。目前，由於疫情控制和其他不確定因素，貴公司是否仍保留？另外，還有一個關於專用卡車的市場相關問題：您是否預期或已經看到基礎設施建設法案或一般建築項目帶來的市場成長，以及車身製造或其他產能問題是否會限制該市場的成長。

Yes. So the first question on how we think about the order book, we have close relationships with our customers, and those relationships carry on all the time. So some customers want to place orders already and want multiyear orders, and we deal with those customers on a case-by-case basis. We try not to get ahead of ourselves in general pricing release before we understand what the world is going to look like a little bit in 2024. So the next quarter or so, that will start to free up.

是的。首先，關於我們如何看待訂單，我們與客戶保持著密切的聯繫，而且這種聯繫一直持續著。有些客戶現在就想下單，而且是多年期的訂單，我們會根據具體情況逐一處理。在對2024年的世界情勢有一定了解之前，我們盡量避免過早發布整體價格。所以，大約在接下來的一個季度，情況會開始好轉。

In terms of the vocational market, when you think about that, it is exceptionally strong right now. There is a limitation on -- from the body builder standpoint. They're trying to build as many bodies as they can. We're building as many vocational trucks as we can, and we think we're at the beginning of that. So we think that, that will continue for quite some time as investments into America are continuing.

就專用車輛市場而言，目前市場異常強勁。從車身製造商的角度來看，產能有限。他們正竭盡全力生產車身。我們也在盡可能地生產專用卡車，我們認為這只是個開始。因此，我們認為，隨著對美國投資的持續成長，這種趨勢將持續相當長一段時間。

Our next question today comes from David Raso from Evercore ISI.

今天我們提出的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

The Parts business, the third quarter, the up 7% midpoint, I'm just trying to get a sense of the volume baked in. The first quarter, right, pricing was up 15% in Parts. You had a little bit of currency drag, so volumes were up a little. The second quarter, given that price comment, I'm not sure volume was up at all in Parts. The third quarter, I'm just giving you a sense of the volume. Are the volumes assumed down in the third quarter year-over-year and then you have the price to get back to 7% total?

零件業務，第三季度，中間值7%的成長，我只是想了解銷量成長的具體情況。第一季度，零件價格上漲了15%，沒錯。由於匯率波動，銷量略有成長。第二季度，考慮到價格因素，我不確定零件銷售是否有成長。第三季度，我只是想讓您了解一下銷售情況。第三季銷售是否年減，然後價格上漲又使整體成長達到7%？

So the 6% to 8% growth in the third quarter, what you have to take into account, David, is that last year, we saw very strong growth in Parts, especially in the third quarter. And with this 6% to 8% growth, we expect the year to be 10% to 13% higher than last year, which is excellent and above our long-term average.

所以，大衛，關於第三季6%到8%的成長，你需要考慮到的是，去年零件業務成長非常強勁，尤其是在第三季。加上這6%到8%的成長，我們預計全年成長率將比去年高出10%到13%，這非常出色，高於我們的長期平均值。

Okay. So that implies the fourth quarter is up only similar to the third. But again, I know it's tough comp, just so I kind of understand the volume/price issue. Is the slowdown mostly volume going a bit negative? Or is there something about the pricing? I'm just trying to understand that cadence between volume and price, so I can better understand how to model the margins.

好的。所以這意味著第四季的成長與第三季基本持平。但我知道今年的基數比較高，所以我想了解銷售/價格之間的關係。銷量下滑主要是因為銷量略降嗎？還是價格方面出了問題？我只是想弄清楚銷售和價格之間的這種關係，這樣才能更好地理解如何建立利潤率模型。

I wouldn't call it a slowdown, David. I think the Parts business is growing 6% to 8% in the quarter, 10% to 13% for the year. That's an excellent performance by the entire PACCAR Parts team.

我不認為這是放緩，大衛。我認為零件業務本季成長了6%到8%，全年成長了10%到13%。這是整個帕卡零件團隊的出色表現。

Yes, I'm not refuting that. I'm just trying to get a sense of the volume versus price that you're thinking about the rest of the year. That's all. In the up 7%, is that all price? Or is it volume down and price up to more than negate the volume decline? I'm just trying to get that split.

是的，我並沒有反駁你的觀點。我只是想了解一下你對今年剩餘時間成交量與價格走勢的看法。僅此而已。這7%的漲幅完全是價格上漲造成的嗎？還是成交量下降但價格上漲足以抵銷成交量下降的影響？我只是想弄清楚這兩者之間的差異。

Sure. Of course, it's a combination of volume and price.

當然。這當然是銷售量和價格共同作用的結果。

Yes. If you're trying to get it in the macro, David, maybe you could look at it and say like there was a lot of pent-up pressure for parts and getting inventories right into people's businesses, dealerships, customers. I think some of that has been met on the parts side of the business, not on the truck side really. And now that's kind of the flow that we're looking at going forward.

是的。大衛，如果你想從宏觀角度來看待這個問題，或許你可以這樣理解：零件供應方面存在著很大的壓力，需要盡快將庫存送到企業、經銷商和客戶手中。我認為零件業務方面已經緩解了部分壓力，但卡車業務方面還沒有真正滿足。而這正是我們未來關注的發展方向。

That's fair. Okay. So you're just sort of normalizing the parts after heavy last year kind of stocking. And then by the end of the year, you're hopefully balanced again on the parts? Is that sort of the idea?

這很合理。好的。所以你們只是想在去年大量囤貨之後，讓零件供應恢復正常。然後到年底，希望零件供應能再次達到平衡？是這樣嗎？

I guess we say it differently. And as Harrie said, I think aptly that you see the growth being steady growth over the full year with just a 6% to 8% third quarter in it and then growth again next year. So the business is doing tremendously well.

我想我們表達方式不太一樣。正如哈利所說，我認為全年保持穩定成長的說法很貼切，第三季成長僅6%到8%，明年預計還會繼續成長。所以公司業績非常出色。

Okay. And one follow-up. On the order books for '24, are we looking to do that a quarter or 6 months at a time like we've done recently? Or more return to a more traditional open up for the full year?

好的。還有一個後續問題。關於2024年的訂單，我們是打算像最近那樣按季度或半年來安排呢？還是會恢復到更傳統的全年開放預訂方式？

I think what we'll do is we'll look at the first part of the year and decide what the first part of the year looks like and release like that as we get into the general pricing.

我認為我們會先看看今年上半年的情況，決定上半年的發展方向，然後根據這個方向制定整體定價策略。

Our next question is from Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的傑米庫克。

I guess just 2 questions. One, I know you're full on production for 2023, and that's limited to some degree by supply chain constraints still. Can you talk to sort of where delivery is looking for the year or in the back half, if supply chain was back to more normalized levels, I'm wondering potentially, is that a tailwind to 2024, I mean, if markets -- if supply chain gets back to normal [this year] because we've underserved the market?

我想問兩個問題。第一，我知道你們2023年的生產計畫已經全面啟動，但供應鏈仍然在某種程度上限制了產能。您能否談談今年或下半年的交貨情況？如果供應鏈恢復到正常水平，這是否會對2024年的發展起到積極作用？我的意思是，如果市場——如果供應鏈（今年）恢復正常，因為我們之前供不應求，那麼情況會如何？

And then my second question, can you just give -- I know you had some nice market share gains in South America. Could you just give a broad view on what your market share is relative to the order book, if it's improved and sort of what markets potentially next year? And down -- assuming the downturn happened, where would be the biggest opportunity for PACCAR to gain market share?

我的第二個問題是──我知道你們在南美洲市場佔有率有所成長。能否請您大致介紹一下，你們的市佔率相對於訂單量的情況如何？是否有所改善？以及明年哪些市場可能成為重點？另外，假設經濟衰退真的發生，PACCAR在哪些市場最有機會獲得市場佔有率？

So the first part of your question, Jamie, good talking with you, is really around -- I do think that the supply constraints continue at some modest level, and that modest level does provide a tailwind to the market in 2024. I agree with you.

傑米，很高興和你聊天，你問題的第一部分其實是——我認為供應限制仍會維持在一定程度，而這種程度的限制確實會在2024年為市場帶來順風。我同意你的看法。

I think on the second side of your question, I don't know. Maybe Harrie has thoughts on it or something like that. But...

關於你問題的第二點，我不知道。也許哈里對此有自己的看法之類的。但是…

Well, I think market share, we've been building as many trucks in the first half of this year as we can around the world, and so market share is a result of that. And yes, we've seen strong market share growth in South America. We expect further growth opportunities there. Market shares in North America and Europe have had a slow start of the year. But as we progress during the year, we expect growth opportunities across the world.

嗯，我認為市場份額方面，我們今年上半年在全球範圍內盡可能多地生產卡車，所以市場份額的增長是這項努力的結果。是的，我們在南美的市佔率成長強勁，我們預計那裡還有進一步的成長機會。北美和歐洲的市場份額年初增長緩慢，但隨著時間的推移，我們預計全球範圍內都會出現成長機會。

Yes. To add into it, I would say like our build percentage is increasing. And as our build percentage increases, which has been supply constrained, then our market share grows. And we see nothing but strong demand for the products. So it's really just about being to satiate that demand, and that's just going to take us some time to get the build out.

是的。補充一點，我們的產能利用率正在提高。隨著產能利用率的提高（先前產能一直受到供應限制），我們的市佔率也在成長。我們看到市場對產品的需求非常強勁。所以，現在的問題是如何滿足這種需求，而這需要一些時間才能完成產能利用。

Our next question today is from Steven Fisher from UBS.

我們今天的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

So within your 18% to 19% Q3 gross margin forecast, can you just help us with some of the underlying factors there? I assume the European shutdown will be a headwind. So does that mean kind of mix of parts versus trucks is a tailwind that offsets that? Or the mix from new models is still a tailwind? What -- or are there other factors to consider? Maybe you could just help us with a little bit of buildup of how that kind of stays in that range.

在您預測的第三季毛利率為 18% 至 19% 的範圍內，能否請您解釋其中的一些潛在因素？我估計歐洲的停工停產會是個不利因素。那麼，零件和卡車銷售的組合是否能起到一定的推動作用，抵消這一不利影響？或者說，新車型的銷售組合是否仍是推動因素？還有其他需要考慮的因素嗎？您能否詳細解釋一下，為什麼毛利率能夠維持在這個範圍內？

I think it's pretty steady performance between parts and trucks in Q3 from Q2, which I think kind of lays into what we're seeing in the market, which is a strong market with strong performance. And that's happening on the truck and parts side, and we see that continuing.

我認為第三季零件和卡車業務的表現與第二季相比相當穩定，這與我們目前看到的市場情況相符，即市場強勁，業績表現良好。卡車和零件業務都呈現出這種強勁勢頭，我們預計這種趨勢還會持續下去。

I would echo that. If I look at the third quarter, it's probably just a continuation of what we've seen in the second quarter.

我同意這個觀點。如果看一下第三季度，很可能只是第二季度情況的延續。

Okay. That's helpful. And then you had in the release about the expansion of Chillicothe. I guess in terms of capacity needs, how are you planning for 2025 and 2026? There's some talk about this being sort of a record North American up cycle. How are you thinking about that? And how do you think the rest of the supply chain is preparing for this? Are there going to be kind of capacity strength if this demand cycle plays out with that prebuy as people are thinking?

好的，這很有幫助。您之前在新聞稿中提到了奇利科西工廠的擴建。我想了解產能需求方面，您是如何規劃2025年和2026年的？有人說這將是北美市場創紀錄的上漲週期。您對此有何看法？您認為供應鏈的其他環節是如何為此做準備的？如果像人們預期的那樣出現預購潮，那麼產能是否會保持充足？

Yes. I would say that what we're doing in Chillicothe is what we do all the time, which is making investments into our facilities to increase capacity and efficiencies. It's just a good example of it in Chillicothe, and that 105,000 square foot building expansion we did there just helps us get more product out and even increases the level of high quality to a next level-up.

是的。我想說，我們在奇利科西所做的，正是我們一直以來所做的，那就是投資我們的設施，以提高產能和效率。奇利科西就是一個很好的例子，我們在那裡擴建的10.5萬平方英尺的廠房，不僅幫助我們生產更多產品，而且還將產品品質提升到了一個新的水平。

From a build-out standpoint, that's just what we do. Like I said, we're doing it there. We're making investments in Columbus. We're making investments in Mexico, really all around the world, in South America. So we see the growth of PACCAR in the long term, and so we want to make sure that we're prepared for that with the factories.

從建設的角度來看，這正是我們所做的事。就像我說的，我們正在那裡進行投資。我們在哥倫布市進行投資，在墨西哥進行投資，事實上，我們在世界各地，尤其是在南美洲，都在進行投資。因此，我們看到了帕卡集團的長期發展，所以我們希望確保工廠能夠為此做好準備。

From a supply base standpoint, we have great suppliers. We work closely with them to make sure that they have the capacity. Obviously, they've had unusual circumstances in the past couple of years. I'd expect some normalization there, and we'll continue to work closely with them to make sure that they can provide the product we need.

從供應基礎來看，我們擁有優秀的供應商。我們與他們緊密合作，確保他們有足夠的產能。顯然，過去幾年他們遇到了一些特殊情況。我預計情況會逐漸恢復正常，我們將繼續與他們密切合作，確保他們能夠提供我們所需的產品。

Our next question today comes from Tim Thein from Citigroup.

今天我們提出的下一個問題來自花旗集團的提姆泰恩。

Preston, it's just, I guess, yet another one on the Parts business, and I think this will be a North American focus. But I'm just curious, if you listen to some of the public truckload companies that have reported, I mean they've seen some pretty -- a lot of pressure just in terms of utilization and pressure on profitability. I'm just curious, a lot of the discussion was just on positive messaging that you're kind of conveying. But any warning signs that you're seeing or hearing from either your large fleet customers or your dealers in terms of sometimes when you get pressure on profitability, you may get some maintenance intervals that get pushed out or rebuild? Did that get extended or what have you? I'm just curious if there's been any signs of that. Or is it just they're chugging right through that and it's -- the business is not feeling that? I'm just curious just kind of real time what you're hearing from the team specific to your truckload customers.

普雷斯頓，我想，這又是另一個關於零件業務的話題，而且我認為這次的重點會放在北美。但我很好奇，如果你聽聽一些上市的整車運輸公司的報告，我的意思是，他們在利用率和盈利能力方面都面臨著相當大的壓力。我很好奇，很多討論都集中在你傳遞的正面訊息上。但是，你從你的大型車隊客戶或經銷商那裡有沒有看到或聽到任何預警信號，例如，當盈利能力面臨壓力時，一些維護週期可能會被推遲或需要大修？這些情況是否有延長？我只是好奇是否有任何跡象表明會發生這種情況。或者他們只是在勉強維持運營，業務並沒有受到影響？我只是想知道你從你的整車運輸客戶團隊那裡即時了解到的情況。

Sure. Great question. Good to think about it in that broad term. I think from a truckload carrier standpoint, you heard their comments in their earnings calls, as have we, and in our relationships with them, and they've come through. I think a tough few months for them in terms of utilization and rates, but they also kind of will say that they maybe have seen the bottom of it, and things are starting to show signs of improvement in that truckload carrier.

當然。問得好。從這個宏觀角度考慮這個問題很有幫助。我認為從整車運輸公司的角度來看，您在他們的財報電話會議上聽到了他們的評論，我們也聽到了，而且在我們與他們的溝通中也了解到，他們最終還是挺過來了。我認為過去幾個月對他們來說，在車輛利用率和運價方面都比較艱難，但他們也表示，情況可能已經觸底反彈，整車運輸業務開始出現好轉跡象。

But that's not the whole market. We also see the LTL market continuing to be strong, and we see the vocational market continuing to be strong as well as medium duty. So from a total business standpoint, we see this steady, strong position that we're in, and we expect that to continue. And then that may even be aided as the truckload carriers see improvement in their businesses in the coming quarters.

但這並非整個市場的情況。我們也看到零擔運輸市場、專用運輸市場以及中型貨車市場仍然強勁。因此，從整體業務角度來看，我們目前處於穩定且強勁的地位，並預計這種勢頭將持續下去。此外，隨著整車運輸公司在未來幾季業務的改善，這種勢頭可能還會進一步加強。

Got it. Okay. That makes sense. And then just within your truck order board within the backlog, is there -- historically, PACCAR -- again, more North American-oriented question -- but pretty well balanced, certainly at least against some of your OEM peers across small-, mid-, large-sized fleets. Is the order board and kind of the how the deliveries have played out, are you seeing more -- has that shifted more towards your big, large fleets or, I guess, your large fleet this year? And what do you think about the investment appetite for your small to mid-sized carriers as you think about '24?

明白了。好的。這說得通。那麼，就你們的卡車訂單積壓情況而言，——從歷史數據來看，PACCAR——這又是一個更偏向北美市場的問題——但總體來說，你們在小型、中型和大型車隊方面都相當均衡，至少與你們的一些OEM同行相比是這樣。從訂單情況和交貨情況來看，你們是否發現今年的訂單更多地流向了大型車隊？你們如何看待2024年中小型運輸公司的投資意願？

I think of it -- I think it's more representative of the first way you kind of came at the market through the vocational and truckload and over-the-road carriers versus vocational rather than the small, mid, large. I think that there's variance within that small, mid, large sector.

我認為，這更能代表你最初進入市場的方式，即透過專業運輸公司、整車運輸公司和公路運輸公司，而不是小型、中型、大型運輸公司。我認為小型、中型、大型運輸公司內部也有差異。

Our next question comes from Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的妮可·德布萊斯。

Maybe just starting with your 3Q delivery outlook, down at the midpoint a little bit Q-on-Q. Is that 100% driven by European holidays, so you're effectively projecting U.S. production flat to up in the third quarter?

或許可以先從你們對第三季交付量的預測說起，環比來看，中位數略有下調。這是否完全受歐洲假期影響，所以你們實際上預計美國第三季的產量將持平或成長？

That is correct, Nicole. And Europe now has a 3-week summer shutdown every year. It takes 3 weeks of production out. And some of that is offset by higher production in all the parts of the world.

沒錯，妮可。歐洲現在每年夏天都會停工三週，這會造成三週的生產中斷。不過，世界各地其他地區的高產量可以彌補部分損失。

Okay. Okay. Understood. And then in the spirit of the expanded relationship with Toyota on the hydrogen fuel cell side, can you just talk a little bit about the level of customer demand that you're actually hearing for hydrogen fuel cell trucks at this point?

好的，好的，明白了。那麼，鑑於我們與豐田在氫燃料電池領域不斷擴大的合作關係，您能否談談目前您實際聽到的氫燃料電池卡車的客戶需求水平？

Yes. That's -- it's a great question. It's one that the customers are trying to understand the choices out in front of them, right? With the regulations coming, they'd like to know whether they're going to be using clean diesel, whether hydrogen infrastructure is going to develop, whether they can use hydrogen combustion, hydrogen fuel cells or battery electric. It seems like it will be some combination of both for a while or some -- all of the above for a while. And so I think there is quite a bit of an interest on behalf of Peterbilt and Kenworth and the Toyota fuel cell project, and we've got strong inquiries and orders for that already.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。客戶們正試圖了解擺在他們面前的各種選擇，對吧？隨著相關法規的出台，他們想知道未來將使用清潔柴油，氫能基礎設施是否會發展，以及他們是否會使用氫燃料燃燒、氫燃料電池或純電動。看來在一段時間內，各種技術可能會以某種組合形式出現，或者以上所有技術都會同時應用。因此，我認為彼得比爾特、肯沃斯以及豐田的燃料電池項目都表現出了相當大的興趣，我們已經收到了大量的諮詢和訂單。

And I would expect people will explore that. Obviously, they're trying to balance this total cost of ownership for all the different technologies, and it's early days, and I think that they're trying to learn right now more than they're trying to convert.

我預計人們會對此進行探索。顯然，他們正在努力平衡所有不同技術的整體擁有成本，而且現在還處於早期階段，我認為他們目前更多的是在學習，而不是急於轉換。

Our next question is from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

Preston, I wonder if I could ask, your profit per truck now stands at $18,000. In prior cycles, it hasn't gotten above $10,000. Can you just talk about what's driven that acceleration? Because you've always had the premium brand in the market, it feels like you're getting a higher return on the incremental fuel efficiency improvements in automation. I'm wondering if you could just maybe help us understand how much of that improvement is those areas versus improved competitive discipline and how are you thinking about opportunities from here on the next set of product development platforms that you folks have set up on the road map.

普雷斯頓，我想請教一下，你們現在每輛卡車的利潤是 18,000 美元。在之前的周期裡，這個數字從未超過 1 萬美元。您能否談談是什麼推動了利潤的快速成長？因為你們一直擁有市場上的高端品牌，所以感覺你們在自動化帶來的燃油效率提升方面獲得了更高的回報。我想請您幫我們分析一下，這些提升中有多少是來自自動化領域的改進，又有多少是來自競爭優勢的增強？此外，對於你們路線圖上規劃的下一階段產品開發平台，你們是如何看待未來的機會的？

Sure. Thanks for the question. I do think that, what, the investments we've made over the past several years are paying off, and they're paying off in a bunch of different markets. They're paying off in the fact that, within DAF in Europe, we have the only truck that complies with mass and dimensions. It's fully compliant with that. It provides great aerodynamic benefit, great driver benefit. We're able to sell it at a higher price and provide better profitability for ourselves because the customers get a benefit in that fuel economy.

當然。謝謝你的提問。我的確認為，過去幾年我們所做的投資正在取得成效，而且在許多不同的市場都取得了成效。在歐洲，DAF旗下只有我們擁有符合品質和尺寸規定的卡車，這就是投資回報的體現。它完全符合規定，不僅空氣動力學性能優異，對駕駛員也大有裨益。由於客戶能夠享受燃油經濟性帶來的好處，我們能夠以更高的價格出售這款卡車，從而獲得更高的利潤。

Similarly, at Kenworth and Peterbilt, the new T680 and 579 are doing a great job of providing the industry's leading fuel economy for our customers. And then the new medium-duty products that we launched give us a different level of profitability in the medium-duty space and customer benefits as well. So all of those things kind of are taking our profitability to a structurally improved level. And South America, I should add, is also a business growth area for us where that's contributing. So we see that these are sustainable, long-term advantages.

同樣，在肯沃斯和彼得比爾特，新款T680和T579卡車在燃油經濟性方面表現出色，為我們的客戶提供了業內領先的燃油經濟性。此外，我們推出的新款中型卡車產品也為我們在中型卡車領域的獲利能力和客戶利益帶來了新的提升。所有這些因素共同推動我們的獲利能力實現了結構性提升。我還想補充一點，南美也是我們的業務成長區域，這些優勢也為此做出了貢獻。因此，我們認為這些都是可持續的長期優勢。

And then to the second part of your question about future, well, we couldn't be more excited than we are about the investments we have going forward. There's a whole suite of things that we're working on right now that I think will just continue to set the standard in terms of premium trucks and transportation solutions.

至於您關於未來的第二個問題，我們無比興奮地展望未來的投資計畫。我們目前正在推進一系列項目，我相信這些項目將繼續引領高端卡車和運輸解決方案的行業標準。

Super. And then from an SG&A standpoint, any one-off pieces in the quarter? Really interesting to see SG&A down as much as it was sequentially and flat year-over-year given the top line growth. How should we be thinking about the SG&A leverage off of this 2Q base?

太好了。那麼從銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）的角度來看，本季是否有任何一次性項目？考慮到營收成長，SG&A環比下降幅度如此之大，與去年同期持平，這確實令人感到意外。我們該如何看待基於第二季基數的SG&A槓桿效應？

We continue to control our SG&A expenses very tightly. That's how we run the business. So we've seen some increases here and there, but it's offset by being more efficient elsewhere, and a very controlled SG&A spending level going forward is what you're going to expect from us.

我們一直嚴格控制銷售、管理及行政費用。這是我們的經營之道。因此，我們看到某些方面的費用有所增加，但其他方面的效率提升抵消了這些增加，而且未來我們將繼續保持嚴格的銷售、管理及行政支出水平，這也是你們對我們未來的預期。

And then just last one. In the prepared remarks, you spoke about the new facilities improving, dealer on-time deliveries and ability to stock. Where do dealer inventories of your A runners stand today versus a year ago? Is it fair to assume service levels are up versus a year ago and inventories are up at your dealers' level for the high-volume runners.

最後一個問題。在準備好的演講稿中，您提到新設施的改進、經銷商的準時交付以及庫存能力。與一年前相比，您A級車型的經銷商庫存如何？是否可以合理地假設，與一年前相比，服務水準有所提高，高銷量車型的經銷商庫存也有所增加？

Yes, I think that that's -- it's a fair observation that a year ago, things were pretty tight and constrained in terms of parts inventory, and that's been maybe ameliorated to some percentage. So that's helping people get their service done in a more quick way, which is good for our customers, which is what we're always out for.

是的，我認為這確實是一個合理的觀察。一年前，零件庫存非常緊張，現在情況可能有所改善。這有助於人們更快地完成維修服務，這對我們的客戶來說是件好事，而這正是我們一直在努力的目標。

And parts inventories have gone up, of course, as we sell more. Net-net, inventory turns were at record levels in the second quarter. So continue to have the inventory that we need to satisfy our customers.

當然，隨著銷售成長，零件庫存也隨之增加。總而言之，第二季的庫存週轉率達到了歷史新高。因此，我們將繼續保持充足的庫存，以滿足客戶的需求。

And it's helped us as we grow our overall share of the Parts business.

這也有助於我們提高零件業務的整體份額。

Our next question is from Matt Elkott from Cowen and Co.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Co. 的 Matt Elkott。

Just a quick follow-up on Europe. You guys obviously have a technology advantage over the last few quarters there. But is the outlook in Europe primarily driven by technology? Because the European economy does face some challenges broadly, and that's being reflected in freight at times, at least on the intermodal side -- on the [revenue] intermodal side.

關於歐洲，我再補充一點。你們在過去幾季顯然擁有技術優勢。但歐洲的經濟前景主要受技術驅動嗎？因為歐洲經濟整體上確實面臨一些挑戰，而這些挑戰有時會反映在貨運方面，至少在多式聯運方面——也就是多式聯運的收入方面。

I think what you're saying is that you can imagine the European economy has maybe -- has felt like the [mount] kilometers are down a little bit year-over-year, and we recognize that. But we do think that the new truck is performing so well that that's to our advantage in Europe.

我想你的意思是，歐洲經濟可能感覺——比如，人們感覺車輛行駛里程同比略有下降，我們也意識到了這一點。但我們認為，新卡車的出色表現對我們在歐洲市場來說是有利的。

Okay. And then follow -- another follow-up on the hydrogen side with Toyota fuel cell. You guys have been somewhat of the opinion that hydrogen, ICE engines could be one of the most viable bridges to whatever technology we coalesce around long term. Do you still think that? Or is the Toyota fuel cell partnership, does it market that change?

好的。接下來，我們再來聊聊氫能源方面，特別是豐田燃料電池。你們之前一直認為，氫燃料電池和內燃機可能是我們最終共同發展的任何技術之間最可行的過渡方案之一。你們現在仍然這麼認為嗎？還是說，與豐田燃料電池的合作，或者說，它的市場推廣，改變了你們的看法？

No, I think that we do still think it can be a solution. I think that it depends upon regulatory allowance. Like in Europe, hydrogen ICE is allowed as a 0 emissions product. That's not determined yet in the North American space. It has to be still discussed with the agencies. Again, we think that there is efficiencies of fuel cells and different efficiencies with hydrogen ICE and different ones for battery electric. So I think it's important that we explore and work through all of those and figure out what the best total cost of ownership is for our customers because that's really what we're driving for. And that's the level of the conversation right now. And we think it's a bit early to make a call on which one is going to be right. We do think that diesel engines will be a significant part of that for the years to come.

不，我認為我們仍然認為它可以成為一種解決方案。我認為這取決於監管政策。例如在歐洲，氫燃料電池汽車被允許作為零排放產品。但在北美，這方面尚未確定，還需要與相關機構進行討論。此外，我們認為燃料電池、氫燃料電池汽車和純電動車的效率各不相同。因此，我認為重要的是我們要探索並研究所有這些方案，找出對我們的客戶而言最佳的總擁有成本，因為這才是我們真正追求的目標。這就是我們目前討論的重點。我們認為現在就斷定哪種方案最終會成功還為時過早。我們確實認為，在未來幾年裡，柴油引擎仍將扮演重要的角色。

Got it. And then just one final clarification. I know supply chain disruptions have eased materially in recent quarters. But is there a way to gauge how far we still are from pre-COVID levels and if you guys see a line of sight into getting back to those levels next year?

明白了。最後還有一個問題需要澄清。我知道近幾季供應鏈中斷的情況已經顯著緩解。但是，有沒有辦法衡量我們距離疫情前的水平還有多遠？你們認為明年是否有可能恢復到疫情前的水準？

I don't know if there's a way to gauge that. I would say the suppliers are doing a pretty good job of trying to work through it as quickly as they can and trying to increase their capacity and meet the -- satisfy the market. Nobody wants to do it more than them or us. And so together, we're working through that. And I keep seeing this improvement. It's far better than it was a couple of quarters ago, and we expect it will be better in the quarters to come.

我不知道有什麼方法可以衡量這一點。我認為供應商們做得相當不錯，他們正盡力盡快解決問題，努力提高產能，以滿足市場需求。沒有人比他們和我們更想解決這個問題。所以我們正在共同努力。我持續看到這種改善。情況比幾個季度前好得多，我們預計未來幾個季度會更好。

Our next question is from Jeff Kauffman from Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Kauffman。

Just wanted to get clarity on one item, and then I want to go back to the 0 emission vehicles and a follow-up there. For PACCAR Financial, it looks like the fleet was up about 2%, but assets were up about 6% versus first quarter. Could you help me understand that differential?

我只想弄清楚一件事，然後我想再跟進一下零排放車輛的問題。就 PACCAR Financial 而言，車隊規模似乎成長了約 2%，但資產規模卻比第一季成長了約 6%。您能幫我解釋一下這其中的差異嗎？

The average sales prices of trucks have gone up quite a bit over the last couple of years. We said earlier during the call, in the second quarter, pricing was at 15%. So even with 2% growth in the total fleet for PACCAR Financial, the total assets grow with the higher prices per truck as well of course.

過去幾年，卡車的平均售價上漲了不少。我們在先前的電話會議中提到，第二季價格上漲了15%。因此，即使PACCAR Financial的總車隊規模僅成長了2%，但由於每輛卡車的價格上漲，總資產自然也會隨之成長。

All right. And secondly, talking about the no emission vehicles, I had a chance to see the new truck at ACT Expo. And I was asking, "Well, are people putting in orders? And when would you deliver the market?" And I was told, "Oh, yes, you can put in an order today, but we're probably looking at a 2025-ish time frame." And I just want to kind of follow up on that.

好的。其次，說到零排放車輛，我有機會在ACT Expo上看到了新卡車。我問：「現在有人下單了嗎？什麼時候能上市？」他們告訴我：「哦，是的，現在就可以下單，但大概要到2025年左右才能交付。」我想就此再補充一點。

The electric vehicle push was aggressive. It feels like some folks are pulling back over challenge of the charging infrastructure and what have you. You answered the earlier question, what are you seeing on fuel cell. But can you give us an idea of when that truck is likely to be available and maybe kind of update what's going on with customers on the battery electric side?

電動車的推廣力度很大。但現在感覺有些人因為充電基礎設施等方面的挑戰而退縮。您之前已經回答了燃料電池方面的問題。您能否透露一下這款卡車大概什麼時候能上市，以及電池電動車客戶的最新狀況？

Well, sure, happy to do that. So 2024 is when we think we'll be putting fuel cell trucks out there with the Toyota project. So that's -- we've already done 11 of them in the market. That was our first fleets that we did last year, and now we're kind of just finishing up what will be a higher volume run. We expect that to be in the hundreds still. It's kind of what I would expect on the fuel cell level.

當然，我們很樂意效勞。我們計劃在2024年透過與豐田的合作項目推出燃料電池卡車。目前我們已經向市場投放了11輛。那是我們去年完成的首批車隊，現在我們正在完成更大批量的生產。我們預計產量將達到數百輛。這符合我對燃料電池卡車產量的期望。

Your comments on people pulling back or not, we see still strong interest on EV, battery electric EV, but there is an infrastructure thing that needs to be worked through as a society. What our position is, is PACCAR will have the best products whether they're battery electric, diesel, hydrogen fuel cell, hydrogen combustion. We'll have that entire suite available, and then we'll be ready for the market. So we work closely with the regulatory agencies to support them and work with our customers to support them and puts us in a great position for the future. We could not be more excited about the kinds of technologies and what that does for PACCAR's future and how we'll perform.

關於人們是否會減少對電動車的投入，我們看到大家對電動車，尤其是純電動車，仍然抱持著濃厚的興趣。但社會各界確實需要共同努力，解決基礎建設方面的問題。我們的立場是，無論產品是純電動車、柴油車、氫燃料電池車或氫燃料汽車，PACCAR 都將提供最優質的產品。我們將推出全系列產品，做好進入市場的準備。因此，我們與監管機構緊密合作，為相關技術提供支持，並與客戶攜手合作，這讓我們在未來佔據了有利地位。我們對這些技術及其對 PACCAR 未來發展和績效提升的影響感到無比興奮。

Our next question is from Michael Feniger from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的麥可費尼格。

Preston, are you seeing anything in the truck market in terms of the way freight moves or your customers' purchasing patterns that maybe suggest a normal traditional replacement cycle? It's higher than what we've observed historically. Are fleet operators trying to keep a younger fleet? Or any other trends that maybe what we normally think is replacement demand, if the market returns there, is actually higher given some changes in the freight and the transportation market?

普雷斯頓，就貨運方式或客戶的購買模式而言，您在卡車市場方面是否觀察到任何跡象，表明正常的傳統更換週期正在到來？目前的更換週期高於我們以往觀察到的水平。車隊營運商是否正在努力維持車隊的更新換代？或者，是否存在其他趨勢，使得我們通常認為的更換需求（如果市場回歸正常週期）實際上更高，這反映了貨運和運輸市場的某些變化？

You're right. I do think it will be higher than maybe people used to think of it. But more importantly to me is the fact that the trucks that are being produced, specifically by PACCAR, are providing operating cost advantages, which helps people want to renew their fleet at a sooner level. If you get a 7% benefit in fuel economy from a new Peterbilt or Kenworth or a DAF in Europe, the value is so high that you just want to replace the truck. Plus, the driver satisfaction is higher, and it's just a good business decision. So I think we see those turns happening more frequently.

你說得對。我的確認為實際價格會比人們之前預想的要高。但對我來說更重要的是，目前生產的卡車，特別是帕卡（PACCAR）生產的卡車，在營運成本方面具有優勢，這促使人們更頻繁地更新車隊。如果一輛新的彼得比爾特（Peterbilt）、肯沃斯（Kenworth）或歐洲的達夫（DAF）卡車能帶來7%的燃油經濟性提升，那麼其價值就非常高，你會毫不猶豫地選擇更換卡車。此外，駕駛員的滿意度也會更高，這無疑是一項明智的商業決策。所以我認為，我們會看到這種趨勢越來越頻繁地發生。

Helpful. And you mentioned earlier in the call how used truck values have moderated, yet still high on a historical basis. Do you find the spread between new truck pricing and your used truck pricing wider than normal? Or is the moderation in used truck values more of just a normalization of production? Curious how you're kind of seeing that used values playing out in the second half of this year.

很有幫助。您之前在電話會議中提到，二手卡車的價格有所回落，但從歷史角度來看仍然很高。您覺得新卡車價格和二手卡車價格之間的差距是否比正常情況更大？或者說，二手卡車價格的回落更多是產量正常化的結果？我很想知道您如何看待今年下半年二手卡車價格的走勢。

Talk about normalization of used truck prices. If we compare back to a year ago, used truck prices were extremely high and probably not even healthy for the market. I think in the meantime, used truck prices have come down to very normal levels. In our company, it's the finance company that sells the used trucks. And we've built out a network of 13 used truck centers that help us to sell more used trucks to retail customers at a premium price. So even at a slightly moderated used truck pricing levels, the finance company continues to do well and is able to sell the used trucks that we get back at profit levels.

談談二手卡車價格正常化的問題。如果回顧一年前，二手卡車價格極高，甚至可能對市場不利。我認為現在二手卡車價格已經回落到非常正常的水平。在我們公司，二手卡車是由金融公司負責銷售的。我們建立了一個由13家二手卡車中心組成的網絡，幫助我們以溢價向零售客戶銷售更多二手卡車。因此，即使二手卡車價格略有回落，金融公司仍然運作良好，能夠以盈利的價格出售我們收回的二手卡車。

(Operator Instructions) We have no further questions. I would like to hand back for any closing remarks.

（操作說明）我們沒有其他問題了。現在交還給各位，請作總結發言。

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call, and thank you, operator.

感謝各位參與通話，也謝謝接線生。

Thank you, everyone, for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a lovely day.

感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。現在您可以掛斷電話了，祝您有美好的一天。