帕卡 (PCAR) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Today's call is being recorded. And if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time.

早安，歡迎參加帕卡公司2022年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）本次電話會議正在錄音。如有任何異議，請立即掛斷電話。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我謹介紹帕卡公司投資者關係總監肯‧黑斯廷斯先生。黑斯廷斯先生，請開始。

Good morning. We'd like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller.

早安.歡迎各位透過電話和網路直播收聽節目的朋友們。我是PACCAR投資者關係總監肯‧黑斯廷斯。今天早上與我一同出席的還有執行長普雷斯頓·費特、總裁兼首席財務官哈里·希珀斯以及高級副總裁兼財務總監邁克爾·巴克利。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the Investor Relations page of paccar.com.

與以往的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有參與電話會議的媒體成員以僅收聽模式參與。今天公佈的部分資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的總體經濟和競爭狀況。更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及paccar.com網站的投資者關係頁面。

I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

現在我來介紹普雷斯頓費特。

Good morning. Harrie Schippers, Michael Barkley and I will update you on our third quarter financial results and other business highlights. I truly appreciate all of PACCAR's outstanding employees, we delivered record third quarter results in the highest quality trucks and transportation solutions to our customers around the world.

早安.我和哈里·希珀斯、邁克爾·巴克利將向大家報告我們第三季的財務業績和其他業務亮點。我衷心感謝帕卡所有傑出的員工，我們第三季度取得了創紀錄的業績，為全球客戶提供了最高品質的卡車和運輸解決方案。

PACCAR's third quarter net income more than doubled to $769 million, and revenues increased 37% to $7.06 billion. PACCAR Parts pretax profits were a record $374 million, 32% higher than the same period last year. Parts third quarter revenues increased to a record $1.47 billion. Truck, Parts and Other gross margins expanded to 14.9% in the third quarter compared to 14.4% in the second quarter. Strong business operating conditions and PACCAR's increased mix of premium new truck models and excellent aftermarket parts business contributed to the higher gross margins.

帕卡集團第三季​​淨利翻了一番多，達到7.69億美元，營收成長37%，達到70.6億美元。帕卡零件業務稅前利潤創下3.74億美元的歷史新高，比去年同期成長32%。零件業務第三季營收也創下14.7億美元的新高。卡車、零件及其他業務的毛利率從第二季的14.4%上升至第三季的14.9%。強勁的業務營運環境、帕卡集團高端新卡車車型組合的增加以及卓越的售後零件業務是毛利率成長的主要驅動因素。

PACCAR Financial had a year-over-year pretax income increase of 22% to $146 million, reflecting a high-quality portfolio and robust used truck results. We estimate this year's U.S. and Canadian Class 8 market to be in a range of 265,000 to 285,000 trucks and next year to be in the range of 260,000 to 300,000. Overall, the strong truck market is expected to continue as a result of the solid freight volumes, high customer truck utilization and the increased fleet age.

PACCAR Financial的稅前利潤年增22%，達到1.46億美元，這反映了其高品質的資產組合和強勁的二手卡車銷售表現。我們預計今年美國和加拿大的8級卡車市場規模將在26.5萬至28.5萬輛之間，明年則在26萬至30萬輛之間。總體而言，由於貨運量穩定、客戶卡車利用率高以及車隊車齡成長，預計強勁的卡車市場將持續下去。

Customers are replacing their trucks with the new Peterbilt and Kenworth models that enhance their operational efficiencies, achieve industry-leading fuel economy and attract and retain the best drivers. Kenworth and Peterbilt now have a backlog that extends into the second quarter of 2023.

客戶正用新款彼得比爾特和肯沃斯卡車替換舊卡車，這些新車型不僅提升了營運效率，實現了業界領先的燃油經濟性，還能吸引並留住最優秀的駕駛者。肯沃斯和彼得比爾特目前的訂單積壓已排至2023年第二季。

In Europe, this year's truck industry registrations in the above 16-tonne segment are estimated to be in the range of 275,000 to 295,000 vehicles. Like in the U.S., freight demand and customer utilization remains high. The 2023 market is expected to be in the range of 260,000 to 300,000 trucks.

在歐洲，今年16噸以上卡車的註冊量預計在27.5萬至29.5萬輛之間。與美國一樣，貨運需求和客戶利用率依然很高。預計2023年市場規模將達26萬至30萬輛。

DAF's year-to-date market share has increased to 17.4% compared to 15.8% a year ago. This growth reflects the exceptional performance of DAF's industry-leading and award-winning new XF and XG trucks that began production at the end of last year. DAF recently introduced a new XD distribution in vocational truck product line. The new DAF XD models earned the 2023 International Truck of the Year award at this year's truck show in Germany, and the new XD lineup begins production this quarter.

DAF今年迄今的市佔率已從去年同期的15.8%成長至17.4%。這一增長反映了DAF行業領先且屢獲殊榮的全新XF和XG卡車的卓越表現，這兩款卡車於去年底開始投產。 DAF近期推出了全新的XD系列專用卡車產品線。新款DAF XD車型在今年的德國卡車展上榮獲2023年度國際卡車大獎，並將於本季開始投產。

The complete new range of DAF trucks offers customers in Europe, the only trucks that utilize the new masses and dimensions regulations and are differentiated from the competition due to their more aerodynamic design, superior safety features and spaciousness for the driver. These trucks provide our customers the most fuel-efficient, driver-friendly premium trucks in the European market.

DAF全新系列卡車為歐洲客戶提供符合最新品質和尺寸法規的卡車，憑藉其更符合​​空氣動力學的設計、卓越的安全性能和寬敞的駕駛空間，在競爭中脫穎而出。這些卡車為我們的客戶提供歐洲市場上最節能、最人性化的優質卡車。

The South American above 16-tonne market is projected to be in a range of 125,000 to 135,000 trucks this year and in a similar range next year. In Brazil, DAF's above 16-tonne market share through September was a record 6.9% compared to 5.6% last year.

預計今年南美16噸以上卡車市場銷量將在12.5萬至13.5萬輛之間，明年也將維持在類似水準。在巴西，截至9月份，DAF在16噸以上卡車市場的市佔率創下6.9%的歷史新高，高於去年同期的5.6%。

The outstanding PACCAR team and dealers around the world are performing well and delivering excellence to our customers. Thank you.

PACCAR 優秀的團隊和遍布全球的經銷商表現出色，為我們的客戶提供了卓越的服務。謝謝！

Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial Services and other business highlights. Harrie?

哈里希珀斯接下來將介紹帕卡零件公司、帕卡金融服務公司及其他業務亮點。哈里？

Thanks, Preston. PACCAR delivered 44,400 trucks during the third quarter. We estimate fourth quarter deliveries to increase to a range of 46,000 to 50,000 trucks. This reflects higher [build rates], more production days in the fourth quarter and a gradually improving supply base performance.

謝謝，普雷斯頓。 PACCAR第三季交付了44,400輛卡車。我們預計第四季交付量將增加至46,000至50,000輛。這反映了更高的生產效率、第四季更多的生產天數以及供應鏈績效的逐步改善。

Truck, Parts and Other gross margins increased to 14.9% in the third quarter. We anticipate fourth quarter gross margins to be in the 15% to 15.5% range, reflecting higher truck deliveries and continued strong performance of PACCAR Parts.

第三季卡車、零件及其他業務的毛利率增加至14.9%。我們預計第四季毛利率將在15%至15.5%之間，這主要得益於卡車交付量增加以及PACCAR零件業務持續強勁的表現。

PACCAR Parts had an outstanding third quarter, with Parts gross margins of 30.4%. Customers high truck utilization and increased average fleet age contributed to PACCAR Parts record results. PACCAR Parts opened a new 260,000 square foot Parts Distribution Center in Louisville, Kentucky in the third quarter to further enhance parts availability for customers and dealers. PACCAR Parts outstanding performance is driven by its network of 18 distribution centers, 2,300 dealer locations, 250 independent TRP stores as well as technologies like Managed Dealer Inventory and innovative e-commerce systems. We currently expect fourth quarter Parts sales to be 8% to 10% higher than the same period last year.

PACCAR Parts 第三季業績表現卓越，毛利率高達 30.4%。客戶的高卡車利用率和車隊平均車齡的成長是 PACCAR Parts 業績創歷史新高的主要原因。第三季度，PACCAR Parts 在肯塔基州路易斯維爾開設了一座佔地 26 萬平方英尺的全新零件配送中心，旨在進一步提升客戶和經銷商的零件供應能力。 PACCAR Parts 的出色表現得益於遍布全國的 18 個配送中心、2300 個經銷商網點、250 家獨立的 TRP 門市，以及經銷商庫存管理系統和創新型電子商務系統等先進技術。我們目前預計第四季度零件銷售額將比去年同期成長 8% 至 10%。

PACCAR Financial Services benefited in the third quarter from higher used truck prices and excellent portfolio quality. Pretax income was $146 million, 22% higher than last year. Demand continues to be strong for PACCAR-preowned vehicles as customers appreciate and pay a premium for the superior reliability and durability. PACCAR Financial has been increasing its network of retail used truck centers and opened a new location in Madrid, Spain in the third quarter. We now have 13 centers to sell used trucks at retail prices, which enhances profits.

PACCAR金融服務公司第三季受益於二手卡車價格上漲和優質的資產組合。稅前利潤達1.46億美元，年增22%。由於客戶認可並願意為PACCAR二手車卓越的可靠性和耐用性支付溢價，市場對其需求仍然強勁。 PACCAR金融服務公司一直在擴大其二手卡車零售中心網絡，並在第三季於西班牙馬德里開設了一家新店。目前，我們擁有13家零售中心，以零售價格銷售二手卡車，提升了利潤。

PACCAR has invested $7.3 billion in new and expanded facilities, innovative products and new technologies during the past decade. These investments have created the newest and most impressive lineup of trucks in the industry and will contribute to excellent financial returns for many years. PACCAR's return on invested capital further improved to an industry-leading 23% in the first 9 months of this year. Capital expenditures are projected to be $475 million to $500 million in 2022 and $525 million to $575 million next year. Research and development expenses are estimated to be $330 million to $340 million this year and $350 million to $400 million next year. PACCAR's exciting new lineup of trucks and transportation solutions, efficient R&D and capital investments, strong aftermarket parts and financial services business and flexible operating structure position the company for the bright future.

過去十年，PACCAR已投資73億美元用於新建和擴建工廠、創新產品和新技術研發。這些投資打造了業界最新、最令人矚目的卡車產品線，並將持續為該公司帶來豐厚的財務回報。今年前9個月，PACCAR的投資報酬率進一步提升至業界領先的23%。預計2022年資本支出為4.75億至5億美元，明年為5.25億至5.75億美元。研發支出預計今年為3.3億至3.4億美元，明年為3.5億至4億美元。 PACCAR令人振奮的全新卡車和運輸解決方案產品線、高效的研發和資本投資、強大的售後零件和金融服務業務以及靈活的營運結構，都為公司未來的輝煌發展奠定了堅實的基礎。

Thank you. We'd be pleased to answer your questions.

謝謝。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question today comes from the line of Chad Dillard with Bernstein.

（操作員說明）今天您的第一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的查德·迪拉德。

So first question is about (inaudible) price in the third quarter. Can you just give us a sense for what it looks like on the truck side? And then like how to think about that going into the fourth quarter? Any thoughts on just pricing into '23? And it seems like the [exit rate] margins are pretty strong. I mean how much more upside do you think you could generate going into '23?

第一個問題是關於第三季的（聽不清楚）價格。能否大致介紹一下卡車業務的價格走勢？以及您如何看待第四季的價格？您對2023年的定價有什麼看法？而且，（退出率）利潤率似乎相當可觀。我的意思是，您認為2023年還能有多少上漲空間？

Yes, sure. I think that what you saw in the third quarter was really strong performance from all the divisions of PACCAR. There was price realization for us, and costs were up also. But we had a net positive on that, and we would expect that to continue in the fourth quarter. And as we shared with you, we're thinking that Truck, Parts and Other gross margins will increase from -- to the 15% to 15.5% range and a really high level of performance, and we look out into 2023 and think we'll have a really good year in 2023.

是的，當然。我認為您在第三季看到的業績確實反映了帕卡集團所有部門的強勁表現。雖然價格上漲，成本也有所增加，但我們最終實現了淨收益，預計這一趨勢將在第四季度延續。正如我們之前與您分享的，我們預計卡車、零件及其他業務的毛利率將從…提升至15%至15.5%，達到非常高的水平。展望2023年，我們相信2023年也將是業績非常出色的一年。

Great. And just one more question for you. I was hoping you could give a little more color on your Europe guide. Just what are you baking in from a macro perspective, from a freight demand perspective, just like what's being [discounted] there?

太好了。我還有一個問題。我希望您能更詳細地介紹一下您的歐洲指南。從宏觀角度，從貨運需求角度來看，您具體考慮了哪些因素？例如，哪些方面在打折？

Yes. Harrie, do you want to go and then I'll follow up with anything?

是的。哈莉，你想先走嗎？之後我再跟進。

Yes. We see demand for trucks and transportation to continue to be strong in Europe. One of the statistics that we like to follow is the amount, the toll paid in Germany, which is at similar levels as it was last year. So freight and transportation continues at strong levels. We see it that customers love the new trucks, strong order intake. And first quarter is basically full with orders, and we're now starting to fill up the second quarter in Europe. So the outlook for Europe is really good.

是的。我們看到歐洲對卡車和運輸的需求仍然強勁。我們關注的一項重要數據是德國的通行費，目前與去年同期水準相近。因此，貨運和運輸業務持續保持強勁勢頭。顧客對新卡車非常滿意，訂單量也十分可觀。第一季的訂單基本上已滿，我們現在也開始著手安排歐洲第二季的訂單。所以，歐洲市場的前景非常樂觀。

Your next question comes from the line of Felix Boeschen with Raymond James.

你的下一個問題來自 Felix Boeschen 與 Raymond James 的合作系列。

I was hoping we could talk about the parts business. It's obviously been super strong, but I was just curious if you could provide some high-level thoughts on how you think the parts business might hold up if we do see a more pronounced slowing of the freight market or the macro in the U.S. and Europe next year. What I'm really trying to understand is we can use the industrial recession as a proxy to see how Parts kind of did in that scenario. Would fleet seem overaged? Do you have more proprietary content on the trucks? So I'm just kind of curious if you could directionally talk about any puts and takes to Parts into next year.

我希望我們能聊聊零件業務。顯然，它一直表現非常強勁，但我很好奇，如果明年美國和歐洲的貨運市場或宏觀經濟出現更明顯的放緩，您能否就零部件業務的應對情況提供一些高屋建瓴的看法？我真正想了解的是，我們能否以工業衰退為例，來觀察零件業務在類似情況下會如何表現。車隊是否會顯得老舊？你們是否擁有更多關於卡車的專有資訊？所以我想請您就明年零件業務的發展方向談談一些看法。

One of the things that's wonderful about the team here is that they've done a great job of developing a very robust Parts system that serves the customers well, and I think that's one of the key elements that's driving the performance of the business, is having the right systems and capabilities to provide customers trucks. We've expanded our footprint and distribution centers around the world. That enables us to be even a better partner with our dealers and our customers, so that helps the performance and insulates us a little bit from cyclicality, gives us a strong recurring revenue business.

我們團隊最棒的地方之一在於，他們打造了一套非常強大的零件系統，能夠很好地服務客戶。我認為，擁有合適的系統和能力為客戶提供卡車，是推動公司業績成長的關鍵因素之一。我們已在全球擴展了業務範圍和配送中心。這使我們能夠更好地與經銷商和客戶合作，從而提升業績，並在一定程度上抵禦週期性波動，為我們帶來穩定的經常性收入。

We've seen the growth of our engine business around the world over the several past years, which also gives us a strong future look into the parts business. And I think that with the elevated fleet age, we're going to continue to see strong Truck performance and Parts performance for the next while.

過去幾年，我們的引擎業務在全球範圍內持續成長，這也讓我們對零件業務的未來充滿信心。我認為，隨著車隊車齡的不斷提高，未來一段時間內，卡車和零件業務的業績將繼續保持強勁成長勢頭。

Okay. Super helpful. And if I could just have one quick follow-up. You mentioned the new model mix in Europe. Do you have a percentage of what that was out of European builds in the quarter and where you kind of expect it to go into 4Q?

好的，非常有幫助。我還有一個小問題想問。您提到了歐洲的新車型組合。您能提供本季新車型在歐洲產量中所佔的比例，以及您預計第四季這個比例會是多少嗎？

I think we're getting towards 70% now of the new model mix in Europe, and I expect that for the fourth quarter -- in the fourth quarter, and then you'll see that increase next year as well. I can just tell you we're over at the IAA show in September in Hannover in Germany. And the trucks are simply amazing, and the customers are really realizing the benefits of their fuel efficiency and driver performance. And that's driving a very strong demand for those new products.

我認為目前歐洲新車型組合中，我們的比例已經接近70%，我預計第四季會達到這個比例，而且明年還會繼續成長。我可以告訴大家，我們九月會去德國漢諾威參加IAA展。這些卡車簡直太棒了，客戶也真正感受到了它們在燃油效率和駕駛性能方面的優勢。這推動了對這些新產品的強勁需求。

Your next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的塔米‧札卡利亞。

So my first question is, so you're expecting some growth in North America truck sales next year. Could you help us understand what kind of macro growth assumptions or GDP growth assumptions are embedded in that guide for truck sales?

所以我的第一個問題是，您預計明年北美卡車銷量會有所成長。您能否幫我們了解一下，這份卡車銷售預測指南中隱含了哪些宏觀成長假設或GDP成長假設？

Yes. We don't think of it that way, Tami, we think about the truck industry and what's going on within the truck industry that's driving the volumes. And as you look at it, right, freight demand is at very high levels. Truck utilization is at a high level. And the age of the trucks out in the park has increased for the past 3 years, and there continues to be supply-based constraints that limit build. When you put all of that together and combine it with the excellent new products that are delivering like 7% to 10% better fuel economy for our customers, which is thousands of dollars per trucks per year in savings, it points to a really good market for PACCAR next year.

是的。我們不那樣看待這個問題，塔米，我們關注的是卡車產業以及推動貨運量成長的產業動態。正如你所看到的，貨運需求非常旺盛，卡車利用率也很高。過去三年，卡車的平均車齡不斷增長，而且持續存在的供應限制也限制新車的生產。所有這些因素加在一起，再加上我們卓越的新產品能夠為客戶節省7%到10%的燃油成本（每輛卡車每年可節省數千美元），這預示著帕卡明年將迎來非常廣闊的市場前景。

Got it. So it seems like you're saying, even if let's say there's a broader macro recession, the factors you mentioned specific to the truck industry makes you comfortable in guiding to a growth number for next year?

明白了。所以你的意思是，即使假設出現更廣泛的宏觀經濟衰退，你提到的那些針對卡車產業的具體因素也讓你有信心預測明年的成長目標？

Well, as we said, we think that it will be a strong truck market next year as we showed with our industry expectations of 260,000 to 300,000 in both Europe and North America. So it's pretty strong markets.

正如我們所說，我們認為明年卡車市場將十分強勁，正如我們先前對歐洲和北美市場26萬至30萬輛的產業預期所示。所以，市場情勢相當樂觀。

Got it. That's super helpful. And then from a gross margin perspective, with commodity prices coming down and you have a pretty decent visibility to truck volumes next year, do you expect gross margin rate improvement to continue next year as well?

明白了，這很有幫助。那麼從毛利率的角度來看，隨著大宗商品價格下跌，而且您對明年的卡車運輸量也有相當清晰的預期，您預計明年的毛利率還會繼續提高嗎？

Well, we talked about the fourth quarter in this call, and we expect the fourth quarter to increase in the 15% to 15.5% range.

我們在這次電話會議中討論了第四季度，我們預計第四季度將成長 15% 至 15.5%。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

You gave us the growth in deliveries in Q4 and the steady retail for 2023. And I think you mentioned Peterbilt and Kenworth backlog are extending through the second quarter of next year. I'm just curious how much of a question mark would you say is the second half of 2023 in your mind at this point? Or are you anticipating still a pretty solid trajectory of orders really for the next few months that would still set up your second half for an extended period of steady production?

您提到了第四季度交付量的成長以及2023年零售業務的穩定成長。我記得您也提到過Peterbilt和Kenworth的訂單積壓將持續到明年第二季。我很好奇，您目前對2023年下半年的前景有多大的不確定性？或者您預計未來幾個月訂單量仍將保持相當穩定的成長勢頭，從而為下半年的長期穩定生產奠定基礎？

Well, thanks for the question. The way we look at it is that the first quarter is substantially full, as Harrie shared. We're taking strong order intake into the second quarter and into the second half as well. So we see nothing that's slowing us down in the year. Obviously, the further it gets out, the less clarity there is. But there's a great backlog of orders, and it's growing.

謝謝你的提問。正如哈利所說，我們認為第一季的訂單已經基本排滿。我們預計第二季和下半年的訂單量也會非常強勁。因此，我們預計今年不會有任何因素阻礙我們的發展。當然，時間越久遠，情況就越不明朗。但目前積壓的訂單很多，而且還在增加。

Yes. Right now I would say that it's basically the supply base and the availability of components to build trucks that determines the pace of growth in the fourth quarter, and that's probably going to continue as we enter into next year as well, and then we'll see how long that takes.

是的。目前來看，決定第四季成長速度的主要是供應鏈和卡車零件的供應情況，這種情況可能會持續到明年，至於需要多長時間，我們拭目以待。

Okay. And then maybe if you could just give us some color on maybe the order activity by customer type. How much of the strength in trucks are you seeing is large fleets that are trying to take their fleet age down versus more broad strength? And are you seeing smaller and midsized fleets strong in the ordering as well as the large ones? And how do you expect that to evolve in kind of Q4 and in 2023? I'm guessing that the smaller fleets are maybe a bit more sensitive to freight market conditions, but I'm curious what you're seeing sort of in the underlying buildup of your book.

好的。接下來，您能否就按客戶類型劃分的訂單活動情況做些分析？您認為卡車訂單的強勁成長有多少是來自試圖降低車隊車齡的大型車隊，又有多少是來自更廣泛的客戶群？您認為中小型車隊的訂單量是否也像大型車隊一樣強勁？您預計第四季和2023年的情況會如何變化？我猜小型車隊可能對貨運市場狀況更為敏感，但我很好奇您觀察到的現有訂單量增長。

Yes. I think that the -- it's pretty well spread that there's a strong demand out there for trucks. I mean the vocational markets remain very good, 30% of the build. The larger companies are also ordering trucks for the year, and I think it comes back to those fundamentals of great trucks, and an undersupplied market for the past few years bodes well for a strong future.

是的。我認為，市場對卡車的需求強勁這一點已經廣為人知。我的意思是，專用卡車市場依然非常活躍，佔總產量的30%。大型企業也在訂購今年的卡車，我認為這歸根結底還是因為卡車本身素質高，而且過去幾年市場供應不足，這預示著未來市場將保持強勁勢頭。

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Thein with Citigroup.

你的下一個問題來自花旗集團的提姆泰恩。

So the first question is just continuing on what you just mentioned as to the component availability restricting build rates and just overall production. To the extent that -- and I would presume, and maybe I'm wrong in this, but I would presume that that's led to some -- potentially some kind of prioritization as to what you want to produce. Does that -- to the extent that eases next year, is there -- has there been a kind of a mix benefit that potentially goes the other way, and again, to the extent you're producing more vehicles, but presumably some that may or may not carry as attractive economics? So effectively, has this year led to, again, stronger mix benefit that potentially becomes less of a tailwind next year if we do start to see some easing of the supply base?

所以第一個問題就是延續您剛才提到的零件供應限制生產速度和整體產量的問題。我猜想（也許我錯了），這可能會導致你們在生產方面做出一些優先順序。如果明年這種情況有所緩解，是否會出現某種產品組合優勢，從而產生相反的效果？也就是說，你們雖然生產了更多車輛，但其中一些車輛的經濟效益可能並不理想。所以，今年的產品組合優勢是否更顯著，但如果明年供應情況開始緩解，這種優勢是否會減弱？

Maybe, Harrie, you want to swing at that?

哈里，或許你想試試？

I don't see that we've prioritized certain customers (inaudible) to -- I think we want to take care of all our customers by supplying them the trucks they need. Like Preston said, we've been capacity constrained for the last 3 years or so. So most customers that I talk to or hear from, they want to have more trucks and they want to have them quicker. And so we try to satisfy everybody more or less proportionately.

我不認為我們優先考慮了某些客戶（聽不清楚）——我認為我們希望透過提供他們所需的卡車來照顧所有客戶。就像普雷斯頓說的那樣，過去三年左右，我們的產能一直處於緊張狀態。因此，我接觸或聽到的絕大多數客戶都希望有更多的卡車，並且希望盡快拿到車。所以我們努力做到大致上是按比例滿足所有客戶的需求。

Yes, I think that would be too detailed. I would agree with Harrie. I think it's a little bit too detailed to try to think about it in terms of sectors and tailwinds and headwinds of what we're building. We're building all the trucks we can for our customers, and we're going to keep doing that.

是的，我覺得那樣太詳細了。我同意哈里的看法。我覺得如果試圖從產業、順風和逆風的角度來考慮我們正在生產的產品，那就太細緻了。我們正在盡我們所能為客戶生產卡車，而且我們會繼續這樣做。

Got it. Okay. And then Harrie, maybe back to your old shoes running DAF. Curious what you're seeing there from the standpoint of one of your peers had noted some fairly sizable increase in the energy-related costs and some relief to suppliers. How big, if at all, of an impact has that been to DAF in its operations in Europe?

明白了。好的。哈里，或許你可以重操舊業，繼續管理DAF了。我很好奇你從同行的角度來看這個問題，他們注意到能源相關成本大幅上漲，而供應商則得到了一些緩解。這對DAF在歐洲的運作產生了多大的影響？如果有影響，影響有多大？

We do see in Europe that energy costs have come up. And like I think somebody mentioned on the call before, steel and aluminum prices have come down a little bit. So there's a balance there that with higher energy costs and higher labor costs overall, cost levels remain elevated. That's also why truck prices have gone up and continue to go up. But I would say that in this environment with the new trucks that we just launched that customers love, it gives us a really good starting point to sell more trucks and grow market share as we've done. So DAF team is doing really well in the market we're currently in and taking full benefit of the new truck models that we launched.

我們確實看到歐洲的能源成本上漲了。正如之前電話會議上有人提到的，鋼鐵和鋁的價格略有下降。因此，能源成本和勞動成本整體上漲，導致成本水準居高不下，形成了一種平衡。這也是卡車價格上漲並持續上漲的原因。但我認為，在當前環境下，我們剛推出的新卡車深受客戶喜愛，這為我們提供了非常好的起點，可以像我們之前所做的那樣，銷售更多卡車並擴大市場份額。因此，DAF團隊在我們目前的市場中表現出色，並充分利用了我們推出的新卡車的優勢。

Okay. And just -- and I guess we'll see it when the Q comes out. But just on that relationship between price and variable costs, was -- did the benefit increase from where it was in the second quarter, overall, not just Europe, but overall for the company?

好的。還有——我想我們會在季度財報出來後看到結果。但就價格和變動成本之間的關係而言，整體而言，不僅僅是歐洲，而是整個公司，收益是否比第二季度增加？

I would say that prices continued and increased in the third quarter compared to the second quarter and so did cost, but the price versus cost differential continue to be favorable for the company. That's why gross margins went up.

我認為，與第二季相比，第三季的價格和成本都繼續上漲，但價格成本差仍然對公司有利。這就是毛利率上升的原因。

Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Jamie Cook。

Nice quarter. I guess 2 questions. First, the deliveries. The deliveries were on the lower end of what you guys had forecast for the third quarter, and you obviously had that improving in the third -- in the fourth quarter to the 46,000, 50,000 range. So what's giving you confidence to bring up your delivery forecast? And why was the third quarter at the low end? And then where do you see sort of red tags as we exit the year?

不錯的季度業績。我想問兩個問題。首先是交付量。第三季的交貨量低於你們先前的預期，但顯然你們在第三季有所改善，第四季達到了4.6萬到5萬輛的水準。是什麼讓你們有信心提升交付量預測？為什麼第三季的交貨量低於預期？另外，在年底之際，你們認為哪些方面有隱憂？

And then my second question, I guess the one thing that struck me this quarter was the incremental margins were very strong, I think, in the low 20s, which is above the average. It's a better incremental margin than PACCAR typically puts up. Your view sort of on the sustainability of that, just given the strength that you're seeing in Parts and then potentially the help from the new product launches.

我的第二個問題是，本季最讓我印象深刻的是增量利潤率非常強勁，我認為在20%左右，高於平均水準。這比PACCAR通常的增量利潤率更高。鑑於零件業務的強勁表現，以及新產品上市可能帶來的提振，您認為這種成長動能能否持續？

Well, let me start with the deliveries one as we guided 4,400 to 4,800, we had 4,400. We think about the third quarter, deliveries are -- obviously, there's fewer trucks built in Europe. And there's about 4,000, 4,500 trucks less built in Europe. And then we continue, as we say, is to have limitations underbuilt based on the supply-based constraints that are happening. So we see that gradually improving, hence, our guidance to the fourth quarter plus the no summer shutdown, some more build days. And our red tags are kind of at a similar level as you call them red tags for the second and third quarter, and we kind of expect that it will improve slightly in the fourth quarter.

好的，我先來說說交付量。我們之前預計交付量為4400到4800輛，實際交付量為4400輛。考慮到第三季的交付量，顯然，歐洲生產的卡車數量減少了。大約減少了4000到4500輛。正如我們所說，由於供應方面的限制，產能不足的問題仍然存在。因此，我們預計這種情況會逐步改善，這也是我們對第四季度交付量的預期，加上夏季停產以及更多生產日。我們第二季和第三季的「紅色標籤」（即所謂的「紅色標籤」）水平大致相同，我們預計第四季會略有改善。

So from a margin standpoint, your second question, you kind of almost answered it right. We have a great Parts performing team. And we guided in the fourth quarter that gross margins are going to improve to 15% and 15.5% range. We think that that's going to continue to be strong performance based upon the excellent new products, as you mentioned. That's what's going to keep the performance at the very high levels that we're seeing.

所以從利潤率的角度來看，你的第二個問題，你基本上都回答對了。我們擁有一支非常優秀的零件團隊。我們在第四季預測毛利率將提升至15%至15.5%的區間。正如你所提到的，基於出色的新產品，我們認為這一強勁的業績將繼續保持下去。正是這些新產品將使我們的業績保持在目前的高點。

Okay. So low 20s incrementals, is it a bad way to think about your business assuming volumes are there?

好的。那麼，如果增量只有20美元左右，並且假設銷售量充足，這種考慮業務發展方向是否不好？

I'll let you think about it that way. We think about it in terms of how the business is running and what we're providing.

我就不贅述了。我們是從公司營運狀況和我們提供的產品或服務的角度來考慮這個問題的。

I just want to know if my thinking is right, but -- okay -- I appreciate it.

我只是想知道我的想法是否正確，不過——好吧——我很感激。

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自 Stephen Volkmann 與 Jefferies 的合作。

Most of my questions have been answered. But I guess, maybe a longer-term bigger-picture question. You've done a great job growing the parts business, including the gross margins kind of through the issues we've had over the last 2 or 3 years. But your Truck gross margins are still circa 300 basis points, I think, below pre-COVID levels. And I'm just curious how you're thinking about that going forward. Is there anything that would preclude us from getting back to those kind of 2018, '19 levels of gross margin? And if not, what would be sort of the key levers that need to be pulled to get back there?

我的大部分問題都已得到解答。不過，我想問一個更長期、更宏觀的問題。你們在發展零件業務方面做得非常出色，包括在過去兩三年中克服了各種挑戰，並提高了毛利率。但你們的卡車業務毛利率還是比疫情前的水準低了約300個基點。我很好奇你們是如何看待這個問題的。是否存在什麼因素會阻礙我們恢復到2018、2019年的毛利率水準？如果沒有，那麼我們需要採取哪些關鍵措施才能實現這個目標？

Well, Harrie, you want to add?

哈里，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Well, Steve, as you know, our margins continue to improve. And the new products that we launched in North America and Europe have provided good tailwinds, I would say, to margin growth. And as you see it now, our margins are the best in the industry. And that's our goal to stay the best in the industry, and Parts plays the key role there and the new trucks and strong margins. All those new trucks will be a key element of that as well.

史蒂夫，正如你所知，我們的利潤率持續提升。我們在北美和歐洲推出的新產品，可以說為利潤率成長提供了強勁的推動力。正如你所看到的，我們目前的利潤率在業界首屈一指。而我們的目標是維持業界領先地位，零件業務在其中扮演關鍵角色，新卡車和強勁的利潤率也功不可沒。所有這些新卡車都將是實現這一目標的關鍵因素。

And I would agree with everything Harrie said, and I would add to that, that our operations teams have done an incredible job around the world of making sure we get as many trucks out as we can, and sometimes that's done less efficiently. So if that smooths out, then that will be an upside as well.

我完全同意哈利所說的一切，而且我還要補充一點，我們全球各地的營運團隊都做得非常出色，確保我們盡可能多地派出卡車，但有時效率並不高。所以，如果這種情況能夠改善，那也將是一件好事。

Okay. Yes. Harrie, we always want more. So that was the spirit of the question. And then maybe I can just attach one more here. I was interested -- I mean your Financial Services results were quite good despite kind of lower revenue there. Was that mostly kind of the goodness of used truck sales? And I'm curious if that -- you're starting to see those prices kind of normalize again or maybe not yet.

好的。是的。哈里，我們總是想要更多。這就是我提問的本意。也許我還可以再補充一個問題。我很好奇——我的意思是，儘管你們金融服務部門的收入有所下降，但業績卻相當不錯。這主要是因為二手卡車的銷售情況良好嗎？我很想知道，你們是否開始看到二手卡車的價格逐漸恢復正常，或者還沒有。

It's nice to see how the finance company continues to perform really, really strong, $146 million in the third quarter, second best quarter ever. So very proud of the team achieving and delivering those results. Business continues to go well. Portfolio quality is excellent. Past dues are like 0.3% (inaudible) really, really low. The revenues reflect the fact that our used truck inventories are at low levels, so there's less flow, less sales of used trucks. But the used trucks that we sell to that have 13 used truck centers, a growing portion of it that provides a nice tailwind for the finance company. And I would expect the finance company to continue to do well as we enter the fourth quarter and going into next year.

很高興看到金融公司業績持續強勁，第三季營收達1.46億美元，創史上第二佳績。我為團隊取得這些成績感到無比自豪。業務發展動能良好，投資組合品質卓越，逾期率僅0.3%（聽不清楚），真的非常低。營收成長反映了我們二手卡車庫存水準較低，因此二手卡車的流通量和銷售量有所下降。但我們透過13家二手卡車中心銷售的二手卡車，其市佔率不斷成長，為金融公司帶來了強勁的成長動力。我預計，進入第四季甚至明年，金融公司將繼續保持良好的業績。

Your next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore.

你的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Raso。

For 2023, the order books, can you let us know how far they're open? And is that open for national fleets? Is it open for all size customers? Just trying to get a sense of how far out the books are open in North America and in Europe.

2023年的訂單狀況如何？可否告知我們訂單開放程度？是否開放全國車隊？是否開放給所有規模的客戶？只是想了解一下北美和歐洲的訂單開放程度。

Yes. The order books are open, Dave. It's, as we said, substantially full in Q1, filing in well in the second quarter and even through this into the second half as customers look at their full year delivery plans and allocate their capital for next year. So yes, going well by all segments and really kind of as we would expect it for a strong year.

是的，訂單已經開放，戴夫。正如我們所說，第一季訂單基本上已滿，第二季訂單也持續成長，甚至在下半年也是如此，因為客戶會審視他們的全年交付計畫並為明年分配資金。所以，是的，所有業務板塊都進展順利，這確實符合我們對強勁業績的預期。

And the pricing that's in the backlog, is that notably higher than what was shipping in the third quarter? Just trying to get a sense of sequential pricing from what's already in the book.

積壓訂單中的定價是否明顯高於第三季已出貨的價格？我只是想了解一下目前已列入計劃的訂單的定價情況。

Well, we talked about the margin improvement into the fourth quarter, 14.9% grows to 15% to 15.5%. So that kind of implies that we have confidence in our price versus cost model, and we think we'll have that next year, too.

我們之前討論過第四季利潤率的提升，從14.9%成長到15%至15.5%。這表明我們對我們的價格成本模型充滿信心，而且我們認為明年也會如此。

I know you don't divulge truck margins by geography. But when you see what's in the book, you know what the new trucks are doing on your economics. When we think of any margin improvement next year, and at the moment, you're not assuming radically different growth rates in even EU versus U.S., Canada. How should we think about the margin improvement geographically? I'm trying to get a sense a bit, obviously, just cyclically thinking about next year. But structurally, is there something about some geographies? It might even be with another geographies. Just how to think about the margin improvement geographically knowing what the new trucks are doing?

我知道你們不會公佈不同地區的卡車利潤率。但從你們的報告中，你們應該可以看出新款卡車對你們經濟效益的影響。當我們展望明年的利潤率提升時，目前你們並沒有假設歐盟、美國和加拿大之間的成長率有顯著差異。那麼，我們該如何從地域角度來看待利潤率的提升呢？我只是想了解一下，當然，我只是從週期性的角度來考慮明年的情況。但從結構性角度來看，某些地區是否存在一些特殊之處？甚至可能與其他地區有某種關聯。考慮到新款卡車的市場表現，我們該如何從地理角度來看利潤率的提升呢？

What I think is that the new trucks around the world for PACCAR are doing so well in terms of their operating cost performance to our customers that, that is helpful to us in terms of margin. The percent of the product that we changed in Europe is a higher percent than we changed in North America, and so that's really helpful to us in Europe, and I think that our team in South America is doing a great job. In Australia, they're doing a great job. In Mexico, they're doing a great job. So I kind of look at it and think that it's happening everywhere for us.

我認為，PACCAR在全球推出的新卡車在營運成本方面表現出色，這對我們的客戶來說非常有利，也提升了我們的利潤率。我們在歐洲的產品更新換代比例高於北美，這對我們在歐洲的業務發展非常有利。我認為我們在南美洲、澳洲和墨西哥的團隊也做得非常出色。總的來說，我認為這種良好的勢頭正在全球範圍內持續下去。

Terrific. One last quick one, if you don't mind. The used gain on sale, the used trucks in the FinCo. For the third quarter, I was curious, I mean, obviously, shipments have gotten a little better. But overall, the unit delivery wasn't great. And obviously, we can kind of equate when you're selling more new, it creates more used opportunities regardless of the used truck price. Was the gain on sale in the third quarter similar to the first 2 quarters? Is that roughly $35 million run rate?

太好了。如果您不介意的話，最後一個問題。關於二手車銷售的收益，也就是金融公司（FinCo）的二手卡車銷售。我對第三季的情況比較好奇，我的意思是，顯然，出貨量有所改善。但總體而言，車輛交付量並不理想。而且很明顯，我們可以大致理解為，新車銷售增加會創造更多二手車銷售機會，無論二手卡車的價格如何。第三季的銷售收益與前兩季類似嗎？大約是3500萬美元的年化收益嗎？

I would say it was more or less similar, David.

我覺得情況大致上差不多，大衛。

Your next question comes from the line of John Joyner with BMO Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John Joyner。

I just have one question. So following up on Steve's and Raso's question. With regard to used prices and such, I mean -- so I guess what happens on the other side of this when used prices do moderate to maybe a more normal level? I mean do you tend to put the trucks back through wholesale, or I guess how are you thinking about that?

我只有一個問題。這是對Steve和Raso問題的補充。關於二手車價格之類的，我的意思是——當二手車價格回落到更正常的水平時，會發生什麼事？你們會把卡車重新批發出來嗎？或者你們是怎麼考慮這個問題的？

Well, I think what we think is that if there is going to be a market that is constrained like it has been and truck age is up and freight volumes are up, then that could be some time before we experience that. We know the markets are cyclical. We have a great team in our financial services business. They do a really good job of adjusting to where the market is and maximizing the return on the DAF, Kenworth and Peterbilt products that really get a premium in the marketplace. So regardless of the part of the cycle we operate in, we tend to get that premium. We continue to expand our capability in that area. We've opened up a new used truck center in Madrid. We continue to take advantage of the opportunities of selling more retail, and that's helpful to the business in the long term. Is there anything you'd add, Harrie?

嗯，我認為，如果市場像之前那樣受到限制，卡車車齡增長，貨運量也隨之增加，那麼我們可能還需要一段時間才能感受到這種變化。我們知道市場是有周期性的。我們的金融服務團隊非常出色。他們能夠很好地根據市場情況進行調整，並最大限度地提高DAF、Kenworth和Peterbilt等在市場上溢價較高的產品的收益。因此，無論我們處於市場週期的哪個階段，我們通常都能獲得溢價。我們將繼續擴大這方面的能力。我們在馬德里開設了一家新的二手卡車中心。我們將繼續把握機會，增加零售業務，這對公司的長期發展大有裨益。 Harrie，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think that summarizes it well.

不，我覺得這樣概括得很好。

Your next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的妮可·德布萊斯。

So maybe just starting with a little bit more on supply chain. So I totally understand that there's still a lot of constraints here. But have you guys observed any major signs of improvement if we just think about like how supply chain is going relative to last quarter and where we were at this time last year?

所以，或許我們可以先從供應鏈方面多談一些。我完全理解這裡仍然存在著許多限制。但是，如果我們只考慮供應鏈相對於上個季度以及去年同期的情況，你們是否觀察到任何明顯的改善跡象？

I think that compared to year-over-year, it's definitely better. I think that sequentially in the quarters, we see different issues that are kind of adjusting. We have really good relationships with our suppliers, and we continue to work with them to kind of solve out the issues. I'd say that it has shifted a little bit from being purely semiconductors to maybe being other labor kinds of issues and other material kinds of issues, but they're doing a really good job of helping us get the parts we need. Hence, we see that the production should grow in the fourth quarter.

我認為與去年同期相比，情況肯定有所改善。我認為，從季度環比來看，我們看到一些不同的問題正在逐步解決。我們與供應商的關係非常融洽，並且一直在與他們合作解決各種問題。我認為，問題已經從純粹的半導體問題略微轉移到其他勞動力和原材料方面，但他們在幫助我們獲得所需零件方面做得非常出色。因此，我們預計第四季度的產量將會成長。

Okay. That's really helpful. And you guys have increased your CapEx and R&D in 2023 relative to '22 as per the new guidance today. I guess what are the big drivers there? I think R&D, most people understand where the investment lies. But with respect to CapEx, what is causing that year-on-year step-up?

好的，這很有幫助。根據今天發布的新指引，你們2023年的資本支出和研發投入都比2022年增加。我想請問主要驅動因素是什麼？研發投入方面，多數人都明白投資方向。但資本支出方面，是什麼導致了年增幅呢？

Well, we have a lot of really new projects that we're working on. We have some great clean diesel projects. We have some great zero emissions projects. We continue to make investments into our autonomous vehicle platform, our Connected Services platforms around the world and enhancing our production capacity so we can build more trucks and engines. And all of that is kind of what's driving those numbers, so it's fun to see those numbers moving just because they portend a great future for us.

我們正在推進很多全新的項目。我們有一些很棒的清潔柴油項目，也有一些很棒的零排放項目。我們持續投資於我們的自動駕駛汽車平台、全球互聯服務平台，並提升產能，以便生產更多卡車和引擎。所有這些因素共同推動了這些數字的成長，看到這些數字的成長令人振奮，因為它們預示著我們擁有美好的未來。

Your next question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

So I guess my first question, I have 2. One is on Europe and not so much on the demand side, but just on supply, where there's a lot of (inaudible) around energy and shortages and whether that will cause disruptions in the supply chain. And so I guess from your internal point of view, is that something you worry about? Do you see the next 3 to 6 months as being risky, and you don't know if a supplier is going to have an issue and shut down? Or is that something you see as more stable than perhaps I do?

所以我想我的第一個問題，其實是兩個問題。一個是關於歐洲的，與其說是需求方面，不如說是供應方面，那裡有很多關於能源短缺和供應中斷的（聽不清楚）問題，以及這是否會導致供應鏈中斷。所以我想從您公司內部的角度來看，您是否擔心這個問題？您是否認為未來3到6個月風險很大，您無法確定供應商是否會遇到問題而停產？或者您認為情況比我預想的要穩定一些？

Well, I think that everybody can read the same headlines, but I would tell you that from inside of our business, we work really closely with our suppliers so that we can understand anything they're dealing with. And so far, it's been pretty good. We look into next year and everybody is paying attention to it. We'll continue to work as partners to try to make sure we get the parts we need. I think we find ourselves in a pretty good position as we sit today.

我想大家都能看到同樣的新聞標題，但我要說的是，就我們公司內部而言，我們與供應商保持著非常緊密的合作，以便了解他們面臨的一切情況。到目前為止，一切都很順利。我們展望明年，大家都在關注。我們將繼續攜手合作，努力確保獲得所需的零件。我認為就目前而言，我們處於一個相當有利的位置。

Okay. And the other one, and I apologize if you answered this in reference to Steve. But when you look at your aftermarket margin, obviously, there's been a lot of effort over a lot of years, and revenues and margin are both increasing. At this point, are you seeing disproportional contribution from proprietary parts as you kind of get that mix-up? Or is there still runway across the aftermarket business on revenue and margin?

好的。還有另一個問題，如果您之前回答這個問題時提到了史蒂夫，我先道個歉。但是，當您查看售後市場的利潤率時，顯然，多年來您投入了大量精力，收入和利潤率都在增長。目前，您是否發現專有零件的貢獻過大，導致利潤率出現波動？或者說，售後市場業務在收入和利潤率方面仍有成長空間？

Sure. I don't think it's disproportional. I think a lot of what's going on is the Parts team and our dealers are doing a fantastic job of this business growth and creating recurring revenue by serving the customers well and by helping them become more efficient. And I think that's a lot of systems, a lot of e-commerce, a lot of relationship building, and I expect that will continue.

當然。我不認為這不成比例。我認為，這主要歸功於零件團隊和我們的經銷商在業務成長方面做得非常出色，他們透過優質服務客戶並幫助他們提高效率，創造了持續的收入。我認為這涉及大量的系統建設、電子商務以及客戶關係維護，而且我預計這種趨勢將會持續下去。

Your next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

Preston, wondering if you could talk about as you're having conversations with your customers that are interested in making longer-term plans for electrifying their fleets. How is their approach to procurement different at all in terms of the number of truck OEMs that are looking to use? Or any other differences in the process and the impact that you might have on your opportunity to get potentially better share in medium-duty market in an EV environment versus diesel?

普雷斯頓，我想請您談談您在與那些有意制定車隊長期電氣化計劃的客戶溝通時，他們採購的方式有何不同？例如，他們希望合作的卡車OEM廠商數量？或者，在採購流程方面是否有其他差異？這些差異可能會對您在電動車市場（相對於柴油車市場）中獲得更大份額的機會產生哪些影響？

Yes. I think that they use the same kind of analytics they do to make any kind of a buying decision as they're looking for an operating cost advantage, a total cost of ownership equation to work for them. It adds elements now with EVs because they think about charging and infrastructure and return and mileage and route and utilization. So we partner with them at Peterbilt, Kenworth, DAF [in Parts], all partner with them to try to make sure they think about all the input costs that are going into it. And then as well, the incentives that are available to it and use all that together to come up with kind of like when is it time to start into the market, try 5 or 10 or 20. And then when is the time going to be to move even more quickly. And I think that that's kind of a very active dialogue that depends upon their use case.

是的。我認為他們運用的分析方法與做出任何購買決策時相同，因為他們都在尋求營運成本優勢，也就是找到一個對他們有利的總擁有成本公式。現在電動車的分析還增加了其他因素，因為他們需要考慮充電、基礎設施、回收、里程、路線和利用率。所以我們與彼得比爾特、肯沃斯、達夫（零件）等公司合作，確保他們考慮到所有投入成本。此外，他們還會考慮可用的激勵措施，並將所有這些因素綜合起來，從而確定何時進入市場，是先試生產5輛、10輛還是20輛。以及何時應該加快步伐。我認為這是一個非常積極的對話過程，取決於他們的特定使用場景。

Okay. And is that conversation any different in terms of number of participants versus diesel purchases? Or are they concentrating those conversations with fewer suppliers than they were in a diesel environment given the complexity?

好的。那麼，就參與人數和柴油採購而言，這次的洽談有什麼不同嗎？或者，考慮到情況的複雜性，他們是否將洽談對象集中在比柴油採購時更少的供應商身上？

No, I think that they have a high trust in PACCAR and our high quality and excellent performance overall. We have that, that is kind of a promise we make to them that we want to deliver on, and we'll do that through EVs as well. So I think that makes -- that we have a seat at the table to work with them and provide a successful solution for them.

不，我認為他們對帕卡公司以及我們整體的高品質和卓越表現抱有很高的信任。這是我們對他們的承諾，我們希望兌現這項承諾，我們也將透過電動車來實現這一目標。所以我認為，這讓我們有能力與他們合作，並為他們提供成功的解決方案。

Okay. Super. And just to shift gears. Harrie, I apologize if I missed this. You talk about in Europe the backlog coverage that you have, how far out the lead times track today. And can you talk about -- so we're in the mid-17s from a market share standpoint in Europe as regulations are implemented. Can you talk about the time frame and opportunity for market share to continue -- to potentially move higher once the new regulations that you alluded to in the prepared remarks are implemented?

好的，太好了。我們換個話題。哈里，如果我錯過了什麼，請見諒。您談到了你們在歐洲的積壓訂單覆蓋率，以及目前的交貨週期。您能否談談—目前我們在歐洲的市佔率處於17%左右，因為相關法規正在逐步實施。您能否談談，一旦您在準備好的發言稿中提到的新法規實施，市場份額在未來一段時間內是否有可能繼續增長，以及增長的潛力？

Yes, the new masses and dimension regulations that we talked about allows for more aerodynamic and more fuel-efficient trucks to be designed if you meet certain criteria. DAF is taking full benefit of that new legislation. So as far as we can tell, DAF was the only truck manufacturer in Europe that has those trucks on the market today that puts us in a really strong position to grow margins and market share. Like you said, 17.4% share year-to-date, that's a record for DAF. With the new trucks, we're (inaudible) excellent position to grow that market share even further in the coming years.

是的，我們之前討論過的新品質和尺寸法規允許設計出空氣動力學性能更好、燃油效率更高的卡車，前提是必須滿足特定標準。 DAF 正在充分利用這項新法規。據我們所知，DAF 是目前歐洲唯一擁有此類卡車的製造商，這使我們在提高利潤率和市場份額方面處於非常有利的地位。正如您所說，今年迄今為止，我們的市佔率達到了 17.4%，創下了 DAF 的新紀錄。憑藉這些新卡車，我們（聽不清楚）在未來幾年內將擁有進一步擴大市場份額的絕佳機會。

And sorry, Harrie, the lead time part of that question, how far out are you taking orders in Europe?

還有，哈里，不好意思，關於交貨時間的問題，你們在歐洲接受訂單的提前期是多久？

We -- the first quarter is more or less full today at the current capacity that suppliers are providing us, and then we're filling in the second quarter nicely at this moment in time. So that's a really good balance. It's a nice backlog for us as we enter 2023.

目前，我們第一季的訂單基本上已經排滿，供應商的產能也基本上滿足了我們的需求。第二季的訂單目前也正在順利排滿。所以，目前的訂單量非常充足，這為我們進入2023年奠定了良好的基礎。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Feniger with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的麥可費尼格。

I know this got asked a little earlier. But just how should investors think about the gap you're seeing between spot freight rates and contract rates right now? How does that dynamic impact your customers' investing decisions going forward? Is that data point, that spread you're seeing between the contract and spot rates, is that relevant in terms of how they think about their investment profile and purchasing decisions profile over the next few months?

我知道這個問題之前有人問過。但是，投資者應該如何看待目前現貨運費和合約運費之間的差距？這種動態會如何影響顧客未來的投資決策？這個數據點，也就是您看到的合約運費和現貨運費之間的差額，是否與他們未來幾個月的投資計畫和採購決策相關？

Well, I think that when you think the spot rates are a minority of the market, it's 15%, 20% portion of the market, when there's strong contract rates, which there are and when tonnage is at such high levels like it is, then I think there's still plenty of good business for them to have. And I think that they're still oversubscribed in terms of people wanting loads carried as a general statement, which is good for their businesses. And I would expect that, that's there being good for their business will be good for our business.

我認為，考慮到現貨運價只佔市場的一小部分（大約15%到20%），而合約運價強勁（目前確實如此），且貨運量也處於如此高位，我認為他們仍然有很多不錯的生意可做。而且我認為，就整體而言，貨運需求仍然旺盛，這對他們的業務有利。我預計，這對他們的業務有利，對我們的業務也同樣有利。

Makes sense. And if I look back like 9 out of the last 12 years, your gross margins are up Q1 over Q4. So with the 15% to 15.5% guide in Q4, maybe help us understand why wouldn't gross margins increased from that level in the first quarter of next year. Anything we should think about there?

有道理。回顧過去12年，有9年你們的毛利率在第一季都高於第四季。所以，鑑於第四季15%到15.5%的預期，或許可以解釋為什麼明年第一季的毛利率沒有從這個水準繼續成長。這方面有什麼需要考慮的嗎？

I don't think we said that they shouldn't. I think we said that we had good gross margins this quarter. We expect them to be very good next quarter and fourth quarter, and that we think 2023 will be a really good year.

我認為我們並沒有說他們不應該這樣做。我們只是說我們本季的毛利率表現良好。我們預計下個季度和第四季的毛利率也會非常出色，我們認為2023年將會是非常好的一年。

That's helpful. And just if I could squeeze one more in just on the R&D. I mean you're finishing this year, I think, on an annual basis, up 2% to 5%. Your truck sales are up nearly 30%. You guys did guide for next year. It seems like there's a little bit of a catch-up and R&D spending is going to be up double digits. But how should we think about like going forward into 2024? Is -- should we be looking at R&D as a percent of sales as a metric? Any way to kind of think about some of the investments that you guys are making and how to think about that over the next few years, given your backlog and how you guys are thinking about the truck cycle going forward?

這很有幫助。如果可以的話，我想再補充一點研發方面的內容。我的意思是，你們今年的銷售額預計將年增2%到5%。你們的卡車銷量成長了近30%。你們也發布了明年的業績指引。看起來你們正在努力追趕，研發支出也將達到兩位數的成長。但是，我們該如何看待2024年的發展呢？我們是否應該將研發支出佔銷售額的百分比作為衡量指標？鑑於你們目前的訂單積壓情況以及你們對未來卡車市場週期的預期，你們在未來幾年該如何看待這些投資？

Sure. I can share with you how we think about it. We think of spending on R&D is that we have good projects that bring value to our customers. We're such a strong financially-positioned company that we spend the money we want to on the products that are going to bring value to our customers, and that's how we define our R&D spending.

當然可以。我可以跟您分享一下我們的想法。我們認為研發投入的意義在於，我們擁有能為客戶帶來價值的優質專案。我們公司財務狀況非常穩健，所以我們可以把錢花在真正能為客戶創造價值的產品上，這就是我們對研發投入的定義。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research Partners.

你的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Kauffman。

Congratulations, everybody. A lot of my questions have been answered, but I wanted to kind of follow up. I mean, things are changing globally, and currency has been one of those things that has changed pretty dramatically. But you'd never know it looking at your results. And I was just kind of curious if you could talk a little bit about how currency is impacting, whether it's the revenues or the profits being reported back. And kind of give us an idea of what kind of impact to think about when we're talking about the truck business, whether we're talking about the parts business, financial services business, as we think about moving toward 2023.

恭喜各位。我的許多問題都得到了解答，但我還想再追問一些。我的意思是，全球情勢瞬息萬變，匯率就是其中變化最劇烈的因素之一。但從你們的業績來看，卻絲毫看不出來。我很好奇你們能否談談匯率波動對你們的營收和利潤的影響，以及它對你們卡車業務、零件業務、金融服務業務以及2023年發展的影響。

Yes, this is Michael. Revenues for Q3 were reduced by $325 million due to currency effects, mostly the euro, some offset with the Brazilian real was stronger. And for the year, it was $740 million. So there's been that effect, and the impact on profit was about -- net profit was about $20 million for Q3 and $50 million for year-to-date.

是的，我是麥可。由於匯率波動，第三季營收減少了3.25億美元，主要原因是歐元匯率走強，部分被巴西雷亞爾的走強所抵銷。全年營收為7.4億美元。因此，匯率波動確實產生了影響，對利潤的影響約為──第三季淨利約2,000萬美元，年初至今淨利約5,000萬美元。

Okay. And then just one follow-up. You talked about some of new investment platforms. And I was just wondering because every time I see one of your trucks out there, there seems to be an Aurora system attached to it these days in terms of just showing what's on the horizon. Can you talk a little bit about your progress there? And you had discussed maybe building some platforms where PACCAR could be a beneficiary of some of the information and data flows on some of these new vehicles for customers that were looking to electrify or go autonomous in a couple of years. Just kind of an update on some of these new platforms.

好的。還有一個後續問題。您剛才提到了一些新的投資平台。我之所以這麼問，是因為最近每次看到你們的卡車，似乎都能看到Aurora系統，用來展示未來的發展方向。能談談這方面的進展嗎？您之前提到過，可能會建立一些平台，讓PACCAR能夠從這些新車的資訊和資料流中受益，幫助那些計劃在幾年內實現電動化或自動駕駛的客戶。能否簡單介紹一下這些新平台的最新進展？

Sure. We're really pleased with the progress we're making with our partnerships with Aurora and others, and it's going really well. They're making excellent progress. Together, we are. We are developing, as you mentioned, Jeff, we're making this autonomous vehicle platform, which creates a system of redundancy, which makes operating the vehicle feasible. It integrates it into the truck through software as well. And our expertise and their expertise combined is creating, I think, a really neat product for the future.

當然。我們對與Aurora及其他合作夥伴的合作進展感到非常滿意，一切都很順利。他們取得了卓越的進展。我們雙方也一樣。正如你所提到的，傑夫，我們正在開發這個自動駕駛車輛平台，它創建了一個冗餘系統，使車輛操作成為可能。它還透過軟體將其整合到卡車中。我認為，我們雙方的專業知識結合，正在打造一款面向未來的優秀產品。

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Elkott with Cowen and Company.

你的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Matt Elkott。

Maybe I'll ask you guys on the cadence of new truck deliveries going forward, given how anomalous this environment has been and how it's pushed off the production cycle. As supply chain disruptions continue to ease and you're able to further optimize your manufacturing processes, could we see a more linear quarterly cadence [than] historically with deliveries or maybe even like steady, modest quarter-over-quarter increases in deliveries in the next few quarters?

鑑於當前環境的特殊性以及生產週期受到的影響，我或許可以問問各位關於未來新卡車交付節奏的問題。隨著供應鏈中斷情況的持續緩解，以及你們能夠進一步優化生產流程，我們是否會看到交付節奏比以往更加線性，甚至在未來幾個季度看到交付量穩步、適度地環比增長？

Well, I think that as the supply base improves, it does make it smoother, as you're right to say that. I think we got to see it get totally smooth before we can take full advantage of that. I think that prediction of when that will be, we don't know how to make that. We just keep building all the trucks we can. And I would expect that, as we said, we expect deliveries increasing in the fourth quarter. And beyond that, we'll watch how the opportunities are. As we think that the demand is strong, we do think that next year still feels like at least the beginning to be supply constrained.

嗯，我認為隨著供應基礎的改善，供應確實會更加順暢，正如您所說。我認為我們需要看到供應完全順暢後才能充分利用這一點。至於何時才能實現這一點，我們目前還無法預測。我們只能繼續盡可能地生產卡車。正如我們之前所說，我們預計第四季的交付量將會增加。之後，我們會密切關注市場機會。雖然我們認為需求強勁，但明年至少只是供應受限的開始。

Got it. And then just one last question. If you ask the off-highway equipment manufacturers that are expecting infrastructure-related projects to start hitting their backlog late this year. If we look back historically, can you -- is it easy for you guys to kind of trace some of your business to either residential or nonresidential construction activity in the U.S.? Residential is obviously moderating, but there's an expectation that infrastructure projects will start coming in next year.

明白了。最後一個問題。如果問那些預計基礎設施相關項目將在今年稍後開始緩解積壓訂單的非公路設備製造商，回顧歷史數據，你們能否輕鬆地將部分業務追溯到美國的住宅或非住宅建設活動？住宅建設顯然正在放緩，但預計基礎設施項目將於明年開始陸續啟動。

And the U.S. markets, Kenworth and Peterbilt are the leaders in the vocational markets for trucks that support those kinds of projects and expect that will continue next year, and we do see strength in those markets. So we would expect that to be good news and a tailwind for 2023.

在美國市場，肯沃斯和彼得比爾特是專用卡車市場的領導者，這些卡車能夠支持此類項目，我們預計這種情況明年將繼續保持，我們確實看到了這些市場的強勁勢頭。因此，我們預期這將是利好消息，並為2023年的發展帶來正​​面影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Scott Group 與 Wolfe Research 的合作系列。

We saw the really strong industry order numbers for September. Any color on October? Are you seeing anything directionally similar with September?

我們看到9月的產業訂單數據非常強勁。 10月的情況如何？您認為趨勢會和9月類似嗎？

Yes, we're seeing continued strengthening even. So we're seeing that September was strong, and we see October being strong as well.

是的，我們看到市場持續走強。 9月份表現強勁，10月也同樣強勁。

Okay. On the currency question that Jeff asked, is fourth quarter similar with Q3 in terms of that net $20 million headwind? Or could it be a lot bigger than that?

好的。關於傑夫提出的匯率問題，第四季是否和第三季一樣，面臨2000萬美元的淨不利影響？還是說實際影響會更大？

Michael?

麥可？

It will be similar to that. The euro had already started to drop last -- in the fourth quarter of last year. So -- but I would expect it to be about a similar number.

情況應該和之前類似。歐元去年第四季就已經開始下跌了。所以，我預計跌幅會跟之前差不多。

Of course, it depends on what the exchange rates are going to be...

當然，這取決於匯率走勢…

Two months still.

還有兩個月。

And then just last thing with Nikola acquiring Romeo, does that have any impact on battery suppliers for you? How do you think about that?

最後，關於尼古拉收購羅密歐一事，這會對你們的電池供應商產生什麼影響嗎？您怎麼看？

Yes, we have a really good supply base structure with the battery producers in the world and have long-term contracts in place that give us adequate supply.

是的，我們與世界各地的電池生產商建立了非常好的供應鏈結構，並簽訂了長期合同，確保了充足的供應。

So Nikola as a competitor acquiring a supplier [of yours] doesn't change anything?

所以，競爭對手尼古拉收購你的供應商並不會改變任何事情？

No, in fact (inaudible) our ability to produce EV vehicles.

不，實際上（聽不清楚）是我們生產電動車的能力。

There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有其他補充說明嗎？

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call. And thank you, operator.

感謝各位參與通話。也謝謝接線生。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您可以斷開連線了。