帕卡 (PCAR) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time. I would like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎來到 PACCAR 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）。今天的通話正在錄音中，如果有人有異議，請此時掛斷。我想介紹佩卡公司投資者關係總監Ken Hastings先生。黑斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller.

早上好。我們歡迎那些通過電話和網絡廣播收聽的人。我叫 Ken Hastings，是 PACCAR 的投資者關係總監。今天早上加入我的是首席執行官 Preston Feight； Harrie Schippers，總裁兼首席財務官；高級副總裁兼財務總監邁克爾·巴克利 (Michael Barkley)。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the Investor Relations page of paccar.com. I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

與之前的電話會議一樣，我們要求在線的任何媒體成員都以只聽模式參與。今天提供的某些信息將是前瞻性的，並涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的一般經濟和競爭條件。有關更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和 paccar.com 的投資者關係頁面。我現在想介紹一下 Preston Feight。

Good morning. Harrie Schippers, Michael Barkley, Ken Hastings and I will update you on our first quarter results and our business highlights. PACCAR achieved record revenues and excellent net income in the first quarter due to continued strong global demand for trucks, aftermarket parts and financial services. PACCAR's revenues increased 31% to $8.47 billion and net income was $734 million, including an after-tax nonrecurring charge of $446 million.

早上好。 Harrie Schippers、Michael Barkley、Ken Hastings 和我將向您介紹我們第一季度的業績和業務亮點。由於全球對卡車、售後零件和金融服務的持續強勁需求，佩卡在第一季度實現了創紀錄的收入和出色的淨收入。 PACCAR 的收入增長了 31%，達到 84.7 億美元，淨收入為 7.34 億美元，其中包括 4.46 億美元的稅後非經常性費用。

The charge release to civil claims in Europe was previously reported in an 8-K last week and is the total estimated cost. Excluding the nonrecurring charge, first quarter adjusted net income was $1.180 million, up from $600 million in the first quarter of last year.

上週在 8-K 中報告了歐洲民事索賠的費用釋放，並且是總估計成本。扣除非經常性費用，第一季度調整後淨收入為 118 萬美元，高於去年第一季度的 6 億美元。

In the first quarter, Truck, Parts and Other gross margins expanded to a record 19.3% compared to 15.9% in the fourth quarter of last year. PACCAR is benefiting from investments in new truck models, global growth and PACCAR Parts continued expansion. PACCAR Parts first quarter revenues increased by 17%, to a record $1.62 billion. Parts pretax profits were a record $439 million or 29% higher than the same period last year. PACCAR Financial had an excellent quarter, achieving pretax income of $149 million, which is similar to the same quarter of last year.

第一季度，卡車、零部件和其他業務的毛利率從去年第四季度的 15.9% 擴大到創紀錄的 19.3%。 PACCAR 受益於對新卡車模型的投資、全球增長和 PACCAR Parts 的持續擴張。 PACCAR Parts 第一季度的收入增長了 17%，達到創紀錄的 16.2 億美元。零部件稅前利潤達到創紀錄的 4.39 億美元，比去年同期增長 29%。 PACCAR Financial 本季度表現出色，稅前收入為 1.49 億美元，與去年同期持平。

I appreciate PACCAR's outstanding employees who delivered these excellent financial results and the highest quality trucks and transportation solutions in the industry. Their commitment to the company and to our customers is foundational to our success.

我感謝 PACCAR 的優秀員工，他們提供了這些出色的財務業績以及業內最高質量的卡車和運輸解決方案。他們對公司和我們客戶的承諾是我們成功的基礎。

Looking at the U.S. economy, GDP is estimated to grow modestly. Freight tonnage continues to be good, and customers are updating their vehicles with new, high-performing Peterbilt and Kenworth trucks. This continues to be a favorable operating environment, and we're increasing our forecast for the U.S. and Canadian Class 8 market to 280,000 to 320,000 trucks. European economies are also experiencing modest growth. DAF's excellent new trucks are providing customers with the latest technology and best operating efficiencies.

縱觀美國經濟，預計 GDP 將溫和增長。貨運噸位繼續保持良好狀態，客戶正在用新型高性能 Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 卡車更新他們的車輛。這仍然是一個有利的運營環境，我們將對美國和加拿大 8 級卡車市場的預測上調至 280,000 至 320,000 輛。歐洲經濟體也在經歷溫和增長。 DAF 卓越的新型卡車正在為客戶提供最新的技術和最佳的運營效率。

We have raised our 2023 European above 16-tonne market projection to a range of 280,000 to 320,000 trucks. The South American above 16-tonne truck market is expected to be in the range of 115,000 to 125,000 vehicles this year. In Brazil, DAF achieved a record 8.6% share in the first quarter. DAF Brazil is celebrating its 10th year of operations. DAF trucks are highly desired by customers in South America, and the region is an important part of PACCAR's growth and success.

我們已將 2023 年歐洲 16 噸以上卡車的市場預測上調至 280,000 至 320,000 輛卡車。預計今年南美16噸以上卡車市場保有量在11.5萬至12.5萬輛之間。在巴西，DAF 在第一季度取得了創紀錄的 8.6% 份額。 DAF Brazil 正在慶祝其運營 10 週年。 DAF 卡車深受南美客戶的青睞，該地區是 PACCAR 發展和成功的重要組成部分。

PACCAR's industry-leading truck lineup, highly efficient operations, best-in-class parts and financial services companies and the continued development of advanced technologies, position the company well for an excellent year. Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial Services and other business highlights. Harrie?

PACCAR 行業領先的卡車陣容、高效的運營、一流的零部件和金融服務公司以及先進技術的持續發展，使公司在這一年取得了良好的成績。 Harrie Schippers 現在將提供有關 PACCAR 零件、PACCAR 金融服務和其他業務亮點的最新信息。哈利？

Thanks, Preston. PACCAR delivered 51,000 trucks during the first quarter. The supply chain is improving, but there are some periodic supplier shortages affecting production. In the second quarter of 2023, deliveries are forecast to increase to a range of 51,000 to 54,000 trucks. Truck parts and other gross margins increased to 19.3% in the first quarter. We anticipate second quarter gross margins to be strong and in the range of 18% to 19%. PACCAR Parts had an outstanding first quarter, with Parts gross margins expanding to a record 32.2%. PACCAR Parts business model is based on the application of technology to provide our customers excellent access to high-quality parts. PACCAR Parts is expanding the use of technologies such as e-commerce and leveraging data from PACCAR's connected trucks. PACCAR Parts expanding network of 18 parts distribution centers serves more than 2,000 dealer locations and 250 independent ERP stores, which provides best-in-class uptime for our customers. PACCAR Parts is a high-growth and high-margin recurring revenue business.

謝謝，普雷斯頓。佩卡在第一季度交付了 51,000 輛卡車。供應鏈正在改善，但存在一些影響生產的周期性供應商短缺。到 2023 年第二季度，預計交付量將增加到 51,000 至 54,000 輛卡車。第一季度卡車零部件和其他毛利率增至 19.3%。我們預計第二季度的毛利率將保持強勁，在 18% 至 19% 的範圍內。 PACCAR Parts 第一季度表現出色，零件毛利率擴大至創紀錄的 32.2%。 PACCAR Parts 的商業模式基於應用技術，為我們的客戶提供優質零件的絕佳途徑。 PACCAR Parts 正在擴大電子商務等技術的使用，並利用來自 PACCAR 互聯卡車的數據。 PACCAR Parts 由 18 個零件配送中心組成的擴展網絡服務於 2,000 多個經銷商地點和 250 個獨立的 ERP 商店，為我們的客戶提供一流的正常運行時間。 PACCAR Parts 是一項高增長和高利潤的經常性收入業務。

We estimate part sales to grow by 10% to 12% in the second quarter of this year compared to the same quarter last year. PACCAR Financial Services benefited in the first quarter from a larger portfolio, excellent portfolio quality and good used truck business. Pretax income improved to $149 million. PACCAR Financials' 13 used truck facilities worldwide contribute to higher price realization compared to wholesale channels. Used truck prices have moderated, but remain historically strong. With its larger portfolio and superb credit quality, PACCAR Financial is having another very good year. PACCAR has invested over $4 billion in new and expanded facilities, innovative products and new technologies during the past 5 years.

我們估計，與去年同期相比，今年第二季度的零件銷售額將增長 10% 至 12%。 PACCAR Financial Services 在第一季度受益於更大的投資組合、卓越的投資組合質量和良好的二手卡車業務。稅前收入提高到 1.49 億美元。與批發渠道相比，PACCAR Financials 的 13 個二手卡車設施有助於實現更高的價格。二手卡車價格有所緩和，但仍保持歷史強勢。憑藉其更大的投資組合和卓越的信貸質量，PACCAR Financial 又迎來了一個非常好的一年。在過去的 5 年裡，PACCAR 在新建和擴建設施、創新產品和新技術方面投資了超過 40 億美元。

These investments have created the newest and most impressive lineup of trucks in the industry as well as highly efficient factories and distribution centers. PACCAR is continuing its investments in clean diesel, zero emissions, autonomy and connected vehicle programs. Capital expenditures are projected to be $600 million to $650 million and research and development expenses are estimated to be $380 million to $420 million this year. Customer demand is strong for PACCAR's industry-leading trucks and transportation solutions in all markets.

這些投資創造了業內最新、最令人印象深刻的卡車系列以及高效的工廠和配送中心。 PACCAR 正在繼續投資清潔柴油、零排放、自動駕駛和互聯汽車項目。今年的資本支出預計為 6 億至 6.5 億美元，研發費用預計為 3.8 億至 4.2 億美元。客戶對 PACCAR 行業領先的卡車和運輸解決方案在所有市場的需求都很旺盛。

We expect 2023 to be an excellent year. Thank you.

我們預計 2023 年將是出色的一年。謝謝。

So as we complete our comments, I'd like to thank our Senior Vice President and Controller, Michael Barkley, who'll be retiring at the beginning of June after a wonderful 32-year career. Michael has participated in 66 earnings calls over the past 16 years. He's a great Controller. He's an excellent business partner, and he's a true friend. Michael, you are appreciated and you'll be missed. Joining us today and for future calls is (inaudible), our new Vice President and Controller. (inaudible) has been with PACCAR for 25 years. Welcome, (inaudible). So now we're pleased to answer your questions.

因此，當我們完成我們的評論時，我要感謝我們的高級副總裁兼財務總監邁克爾巴克利，他將在 32 年的精彩職業生涯後於 6 月初退休。在過去的 16 年裡，Michael 參加了 66 次財報電話會議。他是一個偉大的控制者。他是一個出色的商業夥伴，也是一個真正的朋友。邁克爾，我們很感激你，我們會想念你的。今天和我們一起參加未來電話會議的是（聽不清）我們的新副總裁兼財務總監。 （聽不清）已在 PACCAR 工作 25 年。歡迎，（聽不清）。所以現在我們很高興回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tami Zakaria。

Congrats on the great results. That gross margin number was nothing less than spectacular. So in hindsight, what was the biggest source of the upside versus your original guidance of 16 to 17, and is the 18 to 19 that you're expecting for 2Q sort of a good run rate for the rest of the year?

恭喜取得好成績。這個毛利率數字非常驚人。因此，事後看來，與您最初的 16 到 17 的指導相比，最大的上行來源是什麼？您期望第二季度的 18 到 19 在今年剩餘時間裡表現良好？

Well, thanks for the question. What we saw in the first quarter was we saw very good operating efficiencies and cost increases were less than expected. Those are the 2 contributors to the margin improvement over what we had guided. And then as Harrie shared, 18% to 19% is what we expect in the second quarter. And we think we have a really good year.

好吧，謝謝你的提問。我們在第一季度看到的是我們看到非常好的運營效率和成本增長低於預期。這些是我們指導的利潤率改善的兩個貢獻者。然後正如 Harrie 分享的那樣，我們對第二季度的預期是 18% 到 19%。我們認為我們度過了非常美好的一年。

Perfect. If I can ask one more question. Sure. Sure, Harrie.

完美的。如果我可以再問一個問題。當然。當然，哈里。

I think the Parts growth of 17% exceeded our projections a quarter ago. And Parts margins were better, too, and that contributes to the 19.3% as well, of course.

我認為 17% 的零部件增長超出了我們一個季度前的預測。零件利潤率也更高，這當然也有助於 19.3%。

Got it. And if I can ask one more. I think some industry data showed some order slowdown, but my understanding is that PACCAR numbers are not really in that data. And so can you, from your perspective, can you share with us what you're seeing in terms of order activity? How deep into the third or fourth quarter, your order books have opened? Any comments on order trends you're seeing?

知道了。如果我可以再問一個。我認為一些行業數據顯示訂單有所放緩，但我的理解是 PACCAR 數字並不真正在該數據中。那麼，從您的角度來看，您能否與我們分享您在訂單活動方面看到的情況？進入第三或第四季度有多深，您的訂單打開了多少？對您看到的訂單趨勢有何評論？

Sure, Tami, glad to. What we've seen is good order intake, continued good order intake and we're substantially full for the year. So third quarter is full. Few slots left in the fourth quarter but substantially full.

當然，塔米，很高興。我們看到的是良好的訂單攝入量，持續良好的訂單攝入量，我們今年基本上已經滿員了。所以第三季度已經滿了。第四季度剩下的名額很少，但基本上已經滿了。

Our next question comes from the line of Dillon Cumming with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自 Dillon Cumming 與摩根士丹利的對話。

Just wanted to ask first from a financing perspective. A lot of concern in the market with regards to customers not being able to get financing from smaller to midsized banks. But in terms of what you see on the ground, first of all, has that impacted your kind of order intake or kind of customer sentiment? And second of all, has that created an incremental opportunity for PFS to maybe get some more financing business as a result of smaller banks maybe not being able to finance the same number of customers that they're used to?

只是想先從融資的角度問一下。市場對客戶無法從中小型銀行獲得融資存在很多擔憂。但就您在實地看到的情況而言，首先，這是否影響了您的訂單接收或客戶情緒？其次，由於較小的銀行可能無法為他們習慣的相同數量的客戶提供資金，這是否為 PFS 創造了一個增量機會，以獲得更多的融資業務？

Yes, I'm not aware of any customers that are not going to get the financing that they need. It's good to have PACCAR Financial, who was able to finance our customers in good times and bad times. PACCAR Financial had a great quarter. We're financing about 25% of the trucks that we sell in some years, that has even grown to 30%. So we're there for any customers that need us.

是的，我不知道有任何客戶無法獲得他們需要的融資。擁有 PACCAR Financial 是件好事，它能夠在順境和逆境時為我們的客戶提供資金。 PACCAR Financial 有一個很好的季度。在某些年裡，我們為我們銷售的大約 25% 的卡車提供融資，甚至增長到 30%。因此，我們會為任何需要我們的客戶提供幫助。

Got it. And I'll just ask kind of a longer-term question around pricing sustainability. We're obviously coming off in a couple of years here, a really strong pricing. I'm kind of assuming given the margin performance in the quarter that pricing was also pretty strong as well. Kind of as we think about how the back half of the year develops going into next year, pairing that off with a potential kind of prebuy dynamics from '25, '26. Can you just give us any flavor or slight color on how you are thinking about pricing kind of developing for the rest of the year into next year? If there's kind of scope for it to remain or resilient in the event that '24 builds are actually down year-over-year?

知道了。我只想問一個關於定價可持續性的長期問題。我們顯然會在幾年後離開這裡，這是一個非常強大的定價。鑑於本季度的利潤率表現，我有點假設定價也相當強勁。有點像我們考慮今年下半年如何發展到明年，將其與 '25、'26 的潛在預購動態相結合。您能否就今年餘下時間到明年的定價開發方式給我們任何風味或輕微的色彩？如果 '24 構建實際同比下降，它是否有保留或彈性的餘地？

Well, I think that we feel good about 2023, as we said. We think we have an excellent year that we're working on right now. We see continued strong demand for the products. I mean I think we've reintroduced or introduced new products in North America and Europe and in South America in the last couple of years, and those products are providing great value to the customers. That value to the customers is why they would like to have them. So we're helping their operations, which is good. And as Harrie mentioned, the Parts business continues to perform well. We're utilizing technology in new ways to help improve the value to our customers through the Parts business. They're doing a great job in those things. They contribute to good performance for the company.

好吧，正如我們所說，我認為我們對 2023 年感覺良好。我們認為我們現在正在努力度過一個美好的一年。我們看到對產品的持續強勁需求。我的意思是，我認為過去幾年我們在北美、歐洲和南美重新推出或推出了新產品，這些產品為客戶提供了巨大的價值。這種對客戶的價值就是他們想要擁有它們的原因。所以我們正在幫助他們的運營，這很好。正如哈里所說，零件業務繼續表現良好。我們正在以新的方式利用技術，通過零件業務幫助我們的客戶提高價值。他們在這些方面做得很好。他們為公司的良好業績做出了貢獻。

Our next question comes from the line of Chad Dillard with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Chad Dillard 和 Bernstein 的對話。

So my first question is compared to the last cycle. Can you just talk about how much structural uplift in Parts margins do you think you've seen?

所以我的第一個問題是與上一個週期進行比較。你能談談你認為你已經看到了多少零件利潤率的結構性提升嗎？

Sure. I think that I would point towards, again, the way I just talked about the scenario and the last question is -- the Parts team has done an excellent job of creating value for the customers. So it's not just providing parts. It's about having the right parts in the right locations, our 18 PDCs located throughout the world, make it easier to have parts available to our customers next day and even same day in many cases.

當然。我想我會再次指出我剛才談到場景的方式，最後一個問題是——零件團隊在為客戶創造價值方面做得非常出色。所以它不僅僅是提供零件。這是關於在正確的位置提供正確的零件，我們在世界各地設有 18 個 PDC，這使得我們的客戶可以更輕鬆地在第二天甚至在許多情況下當天獲得零件。

They're also using tools like MDI, managed dealer inventory, so that we work closely with the dealers to make sure that they -- that we know what parts they need, and that's really supportive to the business. And I think that the connected vehicle status is also helping us as well. So those things all help the Parts business. We see the powertrain business, the engine business being a good contributor to the Parts growth. And as we look forward into the future and think about the electric vehicle world, that will also be likely accretive to our business and parts. So we feel like there's a great future for us.

他們還使用 MDI（管理經銷商庫存）等工具，以便我們與經銷商密切合作，以確保他們 - 我們知道他們需要什麼零件，這對業務確實有支持。而且我認為聯網車輛狀態也在幫助我們。所以這些東西都有助於零件業務。我們看到動力總成業務、發動機業務對零部件增長做出了很好的貢獻。當我們展望未來並思考電動汽車世界時，這也可能會增加我們的業務和零部件。所以我們覺得我們有一個美好的未來。

That's helpful. And then second question, how should we think about PFS profitability for the balance of the year? And do you think the environment is strong enough for you to maintain the current run rate of loss provisions?

這很有幫助。然後是第二個問題，我們應該如何考慮今年餘下時間的 PFS 盈利能力？您認為環境是否足以讓您維持目前的虧損準備金率？

Yes. Like we said PACCAR Financial is having an excellent year. Used truck gains are a little less than what they were a quarter ago or a year ago. But the portfolio is larger with the growing number of trucks in the portfolio and the higher value per truck in the portfolio. In addition, we see a strong portfolio performance with continued low credit losses, low past dues. So we expect the finance company to continue seeing good quarters as we progress during the year.

是的。正如我們所說，PACCAR Financial 今年表現出色。二手卡車的收益略低於一個季度前或一年前的水平。但隨著投資組合中卡車數量的增加以及投資組合中每輛卡車價值的增加，投資組合也變得更大了。此外，我們看到了強勁的投資組合表現，信用損失持續低，逾期未付。因此，我們預計隨著我們在這一年的進步，這家金融公司將繼續看到良好的季度業績。

Our next question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

My question is on supply chain as you kind of exit on Q. Industry volumes seem to have improved markedly. You guys obviously (inaudible). And so I'm curious, is supplying disruption, direct costs from shipping, et cetera. back to normal? Is there still more improvement to be had there? And how would that, if at all, impact your decision on pricing?

我的問題是關於供應鏈的，因為你在 Q 上有點退出。行業數量似乎有了顯著改善。你們顯然（聽不清）。所以我很好奇，供應中斷、運輸的直接成本等等。恢復正常？那裡還有更多的改進嗎？如果有的話，這將如何影響您的定價決定？

Sure. We've worked really closely with the supplier partners we have over the past couple of years, and I give them a lot of credit for what they've been able to accomplish in a dynamic world environment. But it's not finished yet. We still do see some constraints in supplier deliveries, and we keep working through those, and they kind of act some ways is the throttle on our build right now, but generally improving circumstances, and we look forward to that even improving further throughout the year.

當然。在過去的幾年裡，我們與我們的供應商合作夥伴密切合作，我對他們在動態世界環境中所取得的成就給予了很大的讚揚。但它還沒有完成。我們仍然確實看到供應商交付方面存在一些限制，我們一直在努力解決這些問題，他們在某種程度上以某種方式阻礙了我們目前的建設，但總體上情況有所改善，我們期待這一年甚至進一步改善.

Okay, perfect. If I ask one other one. When you look at your raised outlook and I guess competitors have done the same. So you guys are seeing definitely strong demand -- and yet there's fears of recession and slowdown out there. Are you seeing any material mix shift within your orders, say, to construction with project activity versus sleeper cab or would you say it's kind of strong throughout? And I'll stop there.

好的，完美。如果我再問一個。當您審視自己的遠景展望時，我猜競爭對手也做了同樣的事情。所以你們確實看到了強勁的需求——但人們仍擔心經濟衰退和經濟放緩。您是否看到您的訂單中有任何材料組合發生變化，例如，通過項目活動進行施工而不是臥舖駕駛室，或者您會說它在整個過程中都很強嗎？我就到此為止。

I think you're right on it. I think that what we've seen is strong demand through all parts of the market. But if there's a trimming in the truckload area, then I would say that's fully offset by the robust vocational markets that we see.

我認為你是對的。我認為我們所看到的是市場各個部分的強勁需求。但是，如果卡車裝載區域有所減少，那麼我會說這完全被我們看到的強勁的職業市場所抵消。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Steve Volkmann。

I'm wondering if we can go back to the gross margin, and I just want to try to understand some of the drivers because if you have a slightly higher production in the second quarter versus the first but your gross margin is down, call it, 100 basis points or maybe a little less. I'm just curious what would drive that gross margin down lower sequentially?

我想知道我們是否可以回到毛利率，我只是想嘗試了解一些驅動因素，因為如果您第二季度的產量略高於第一季度，但您的毛利率下降了，稱之為, 100 個基點或更少。我只是好奇什麼會導致毛利率連續下降？

Well, in the first quarter, I just mentioned the supply base has not fully improved. So there still are costs and things that we experienced in terms of deliveries. In fact, in the first quarter, there were some trucks that we didn't finish delivering. So we had better absorption in the first quarter than we might see in the second quarter, which contributes a little bit. And I don't know if there's anything you'd add, Harrie to that, but...

那麼在第一季度，我剛才提到供應基礎還沒有完全改善。因此，我們在交付方面仍然存在成本和經歷。事實上，在第一季度，我們有一些卡車沒有完成交付。所以我們在第一季度的吸收比我們在第二季度看到的要好，這有一點貢獻。我不知道你是否還有什麼要補充的，Harrie，但是……

And I would say the trucks production and deliveries increasing to 51,000 to 54,000 trucks will grow a little faster than Parts. So we would see a little bit of an unfavorable truck versus parts mix which is why we get to that 18% to 19% excellent margin for the second quarter.

我會說卡車的產量和交付量增加到 51,000 到 54,000 輛，其增長速度將比零部件增長快一點。因此，我們會看到卡車與零件組合有點不利，這就是為什麼我們在第二季度獲得 18% 至 19% 的出色利潤率。

Yes, still very high, but just wanted to understand the moving parts. And then maybe, Preston, you mentioned this, but supply chain, I guess, we assume that will continue to improve as the year progresses. So if that's the case, would you imagine given the demand environment, would you imagine that you would be able to continue to increase kind of quarterly production rates in the second half as well?

是的，仍然很高，但只是想了解活動部件。然後也許，普雷斯頓，你提到了這一點，但我想，我們認為供應鏈將隨著時間的推移繼續改善。因此，如果是這樣的話，您是否可以想像在需求環境下，您是否可以想像下半年您也能夠繼續提高某種季度生產率？

Well, continue to improve might not be huge changes in production output. So we'll have to see what that looks like, Steve. We're always looking to build those trucks, especially with the backlog we have.

好吧，繼續改進可能不會產生巨大的產量變化。所以我們必須看看它是什麼樣子，史蒂夫。我們一直在尋求製造這些卡車，尤其是在我們積壓的情況下。

Our next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

So essentially, the sequential margins, right, we've got truck revenues up sequentially, parts revenue down sequentially, so a little weaker mix, and a little less overhead absorption from -- you can kind of see it in the company inventory, right, what didn't ship, but you built. But on price/cost, I'm curious, the rest of the year, how do you see price cost versus what you experienced in the first quarter? I'm also curious, too, if you can help me a little bit with the FIFO, LIFO change a year ago, I know it's only about 40% of the inventory got changed for it. Just curious at all if you could help us, how has that accounting change helped a bit with the margins. And last, I'll throw one in there, if you can answer it. When do you expect to open the order books for '24? So again, price cost, LIFO, FIFO.

所以從本質上講，連續利潤率，正確的，我們有卡車收入連續增加，零件收入連續減少，所以組合更弱，間接費用吸收更少——你可以在公司庫存中看到它，對吧，什麼沒有發貨，但你建造了。但在價格/成本方面，我很好奇，今年餘下時間，你如何看待價格成本與第一季度的經歷？我也很好奇，如果你能幫我解決 FIFO，一年前 LIFO 的變化，我知道只有大約 40% 的庫存因此發生了變化。只是很好奇您是否可以幫助我們，會計變更對利潤率有何幫助。最後，如果你能回答的話，我會在裡面放一個。您預計什麼時候打開 24 年的訂單簿？再一次，價格成本，後進先出，先進先出。

Why don't we take it in reverse order. I would say that we're already having good conversations with some of the customers about their needs in 2024 and there's a strong interest in the truck, that continues to be good. It's early days. We'll see what happens there. Michael, you've got 66 calls under your belt, why don't you do the LIFO, FIFO call?

為什麼我們不以相反的順序來考慮它。我想說的是，我們已經與一些客戶就他們在 2024 年的需求進行了良好的對話，人們對卡車產生了濃厚的興趣，這一直很好。現在還早。我們將看看那裡會發生什麼。邁克爾，你有 66 個電話，你為什麼不做 LIFO，FIFO 電話？

Well, last year, the FIFO difference was about $50 million in cost. This year will probably be something similar to that. So it's really -- it helps a little bit, but it's maybe 0.1% or 0.2% (inaudible).

那麼，去年，FIFO 的成本差異約為 5000 萬美元。今年可能會是類似的情況。所以它真的 - 它有一點幫助，但它可能是 0.1% 或 0.2%（聽不清）。

And then your first question, you asked about price cost. I think we have shared that we had good price to cost realization in the first quarter. We expect that in the second quarter, and we have a good order book for the third and fourth quarter. So it should be pretty good.

然後你的第一個問題，你問的是價格成本。我認為我們已經分享了我們在第一季度實現成本的良好價格。我們預計在第二季度，我們在第三和第四季度有良好的訂單。所以應該還不錯。

So the price cost wouldn't be part of why gross margin is down sequentially. It's really more the sequential revenue mix and the reduced overhead absorption. Is that fair?

因此，價格成本不會成為毛利率環比下降的部分原因。這實際上更多的是順序收入組合和減少的間接費用吸收。這公平嗎？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Jamie Cook。

I guess just my first question, back to the margin. Again, your pretax truck margins were, I think, 13.9%, which is a record high. So can you help us understand sort of what's structural or related to some of the new product introductions that are more profitable versus sort of just deflation sort of helping the margin? So I guess that's my first question. And then my second question, when you talk about the order book for 2023 being substantially full, is that across sort of all geographies? And what are you telling customers about pricing specifically for 2024 as you're engaging in conversations?

我想這只是我的第一個問題，回到邊緣。同樣，我認為你們的稅前卡車利潤率為 13.9%，創歷史新高。那麼，您能否幫助我們了解一些結構性的或與一些更有利可圖的新產品介紹相關的東西，而不是通貨緊縮有助於提高利潤率？所以我想這是我的第一個問題。然後是我的第二個問題，當你談到 2023 年的訂單基本上已經滿了時，這是否跨越了所有地區？當您參與對話時，關於 2024 年的具體定價，您要告訴客戶什麼？

Sure. First of all, I think on the new products and thanks for bringing them up because we've shared that we've invested billions of dollars in these new products. We brought them out in the last couple of years here, but they're fully introduced. And they're providing 7% to 10% better fuel economy. That's just one thing. So that's $15,000 to $20,000 of value for the customer over a few year cycle. It really makes it important for them to replace the trucks they bought even 4 years ago with these excellent new DAF, Peterbilt and Kenworth trucks. It's important for them to do that because they get an operating advantage. Never mind the fact that these are the drivers' favorite trucks to drive, and there's a lot of demand to have them. You see them on the road, they're beautiful. It's what people want to be operating in all the markets. So that's really important as well.

當然。首先，我想到新產品並感謝您提出它們，因為我們已經分享了我們已經在這些新產品上投資了數十億美元。我們在過去的幾年裡把它們帶出來了，但它們已經被完全介紹過了。它們的燃油經濟性提高了 7% 到 10%。那隻是一回事。因此，在幾年的周期內，這將為客戶帶來 15,000 到 20,000 美元的價值。用這些出色的新型 DAF、Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 卡車替換 4 年前購買的卡車對他們來說真的很重要。這樣做對他們來說很重要，因為他們可以獲得運營優勢。沒關係，這些是司機最喜歡駕駛的卡車，而且擁有它們的需求量很大。你在路上看到它們，它們很漂亮。這是人們希望在所有市場上經營的東西。所以這也很重要。

I think that the other part of it is they're efficient to build for us. So that's also helpful. So I think that new products are good for us. It's not just limited to the traditional markets of Europe and North America. South America is doing excellent as well. The DAF brand is a leading brand there. We're gaining market share quickly. The dealers are doing really well, and South America is a growing part of our performance, which is contributing to our overall margin growth.

我認為它的另一部分是它們為我們構建的效率。所以這也很有幫助。所以我認為新產品對我們有好處。它不僅限於歐洲和北美的傳統市場。南美洲也表現出色。 DAF品牌是那裡的領先品牌。我們正在迅速獲得市場份額。經銷商的表現非常好，南美是我們業績增長的一部分，這有助於我們整體利潤率的增長。

As far as what we see, it is substantially full in all markets. So that includes South America, Europe, North America, Australia, Mexico, pretty much everywhere. So the demand for PACCAR is great right now. And as far as 2024, well, 2024, it's the early conversations with people as they're kind of figuring out what their capital plans will be and how many trucks they'll buy next year. So it's the early conversations.

就我們所見，所有市場都基本滿載。所以這包括南美、歐洲、北美、澳大利亞、墨西哥，幾乎無處不在。所以現在對 PACCAR 的需求很大。至於 2024 年，好吧，2024 年，這是與人們的早期對話，因為他們正在弄清楚他們的資本計劃是什麼以及明年將購買多少輛卡車。所以這是早期的對話。

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Steven Fisher。

I want to come back to the Parts business. I'm curious what actually drove the faster-than-expected revenue growth in your parts business? The guidance, again, is somewhat similar to what you rolled out for Q1, so curious what was the surprising part to you?

我想回到零件業務。我很好奇究竟是什麼推動了你們零部件業務的收入增長快於預期？該指南再次與您為第一季度推出的指南有些相似，所以很好奇讓您感到驚訝的部分是什麼？

I mean it doesn't seem like it was an accelerating freight market since we don't really have that. So I'm curious about that. And maybe just generally how cyclical or really not cyclical you think the Parts revenues might be over the next few years?

我的意思是它看起來不像是一個加速的貨運市場，因為我們並沒有真正擁有它。所以我對此很好奇。也許一般來說，您認為未來幾年零件收入的周期性或真正不周期性如何？

Harrie, do you want to share some thoughts on that?

Harrie，你想分享一些想法嗎？

Sure. I think I want to echo what Preston said that we've invested a lot of new systems to make it easier for our dealers and customers to have the right parts on the shelf when trucks come into workshop. It is the proprietary components, the PACCAR engines, the PACCAR transmission, PACCAR axles, all the new proprietary parts on the new trucks, where customers only can get service at a Kenworth, Peterbilt or DAF dealership. So the trucks come into our workshops. And once it's in the workshop, our teams do a great job to make sure the parts are there that those trucks need and that sells the parts. We've invested in more distribution centers, added a new one in Louisville, Kentucky. So we continue to build out that footprint. I think the first quarter was especially strong in Europe, where we saw Parts growing really strong.

當然。我想我想重複 Preston 所說的，我們已經投資了很多新系統，以便我們的經銷商和客戶在卡車進入車間時更容易將正確的零件放在貨架上。它是專有部件、PACCAR 發動機、PACCAR 變速箱、PACCAR 車軸，以及新卡車上的所有新專有部件，客戶只能在 Kenworth、Peterbilt 或 DAF 經銷商處獲得服務。所以卡車進入我們的車間。一旦它進入車間，我們的團隊就會做得很好，以確保那些卡車需要的零件在那裡並銷售這些零件。我們投資了更多配送中心，並在肯塔基州路易斯維爾增設了一個新配送中心。因此，我們繼續擴大這一足跡。我認為第一季度在歐洲尤其強勁，我們看到 Parts 的增長非常強勁。

It's just a combination of all those efforts that come together and having the parts available, strong performance by the team worldwide.

它只是所有這些努力的結合，並且擁有可用的零件，以及全球團隊的強大表現。

And I would add into that, everything -- I'll echo everything Harrie said, but I'll say our dealer has done a really good job of making investments into their workshops, making it more convenient for trucks to come back to them. So that's good for our customers and good for the Parts business. And I also wouldn't lose the idea that truck age is still pretty high. And there's been an undersupply for 3 years and those older trucks are consuming parts still. So even as freight tonnage may have trimmed a little bit, I'd still say there's a lot of consumption of parts on the trucks out there.

我還要補充一點——我會附和哈里所說的一切，但我會說我們的經銷商在對他們的車間進行投資方面做得非常好，讓卡車更方便地回到他們身邊。所以這對我們的客戶和零件業務都有好處。而且我也不會忘記卡車年齡仍然很高的想法。供應不足已持續 3 年，而那些舊卡車仍在消耗零件。因此，即使貨運噸位可能有所減少，我仍然會說卡車上的零件消耗量很大。

Okay. And then just lastly, can you just remind us where you are in that penetration of the new products and how much runway there is still to go?

好的。最後，您能否提醒我們您在新產品滲透方面的進展以及還有多少跑道要走？

For DAF, the new DAF is currently about 75%, 80% of the production mix, and you could compare that to around 25% where we were a year ago. So that ramp-up has been really successful, well executed by the operations team in Europe.

對於 DAF，新的 DAF 目前約占生產組合的 75%、80%，您可以將其與我們一年前的約 25% 進行比較。因此，這次升級非常成功，由歐洲的運營團隊執行得很好。

And in the U.S., it's been complete. The transition is complete fully.

在美國，它已經完成了。過渡完全完成。

For heavy trucks, but also for the new medium-duty truck that went into production, what is it, 1.5 years ago and that's completely changed over now. That new medium-duty truck is made for those customers, Class 6, 7, 8 or low Class 8 provides like the heavy trucks, more value for customers and build in a very efficient way.

對於重型卡車，以及投入生產的新型中型卡車，它是什麼，1.5 年前，現在已經完全改變了。新的中型卡車是為這些客戶製造的，6 級、7 級、8 級或低級 8 級卡車像重型卡車一樣為客戶提供更多價值，並以非常高效的方式建造。

Our next question comes from the line of Tim Thein with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Tim Thein。

Maybe just continuing on the Parts discussion. The full year revenue growth projection at the 8% to 11%, I apologize if I missed that. Are you sticking with that? Or is that -- are you taking that -- do you now see that higher just given what you see in the first half of the year?

也許只是繼續零件討論。全年收入增長預測為 8% 至 11%，如果我錯過了，我深表歉意。你堅持嗎？或者是 - 你接受那個 - 你現在看到的只是根據你在今年上半年看到的情況嗎？

We didn't say anything on the full year. We said it would be 10% to 12% for the second quarter after 17% in the first quarter. And at that run rate, you would get somewhere between 10% and 13% for the year maybe.

關於全年，我們什麼也沒說。我們說在第一季度為 17% 之後，第二季度將是 10% 到 12%。按照這個運行率，你可能會在今年獲得 10% 到 13% 之間的收益。

Got it. Okay. All right. And then just on the -- you mentioned the supply chain issues that continue -- and as we think about the interplay there with production for the full year, do you foresee any change in -- to the extent maybe the assumption that the supply chain is getting better maybe in the second half than the first. Do you foresee much by way of a mix change there in terms of potentially maybe some units that weren't able to get completed, and I'm thinking of a heavy versus medium duty mix. Do you foresee that changing much in an environment where the supply chain is better? Or is that just kind of around the edges? And I'm just wondering if there's been somewhat of an emphasis to maybe get certain units out the door faster. And if that normalizes, could that potentially have some impact on mix in the back half of the year?

知道了。好的。好的。然後就在 - 你提到了持續存在的供應鏈問題 - 當我們考慮那裡與全年生產的相互作用時，你是否預見到任何變化 - 在某種程度上可能假設供應鏈下半場可能比上半場好。你是否預見到很多混合變化可能會導致一些無法完成的單元，我正在考慮重型與中型混合。您是否預見到在供應鏈更好的環境中會發生很大變化？或者這只是一種邊緣？而且我只是想知道是否有一些強調可能讓某些單位更快地出門。如果這種情況正常化，這是否會對今年下半年的組合產生一些影響？

No, I kind of think your words are really good there, Tim. I think it's around the edges right now that, that would be dealt with. I think it's fairly just generally improving and we feel pretty good about the way it's working through. There's just moments. And our teams and suppliers are doing a really good job of solving those moments. And so it feels like we'll just continue to see that trend upward.

不，我覺得你的話真的很好，蒂姆。我認為它現在處於邊緣，將被處理。我認為它只是總體上有所改善，我們對它的工作方式感到非常滿意。只有片刻。我們的團隊和供應商在解決這些問題方面做得非常好。所以感覺我們會繼續看到這種上升趨勢。

Our next question comes from the line of John Joyner with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 John Joyner。

Okay. I feel that things are always great at PACCAR. So sorry for another supply chain issue, but maybe I can ask it, I guess, another way. And with all the work to, I guess, help improve available supplies. Are there any areas that are actually maybe better today than prior to COVID? And can you possibly bucket kind of the percentage of areas that are relatively more normal today versus ones that are still constrained?

好的。我覺得 PACCAR 的一切都很棒。對於另一個供應鏈問題，我深表歉意，但我想也許我可以用另一種方式來問。我想，所有這些工作都有助於改善可用供應。今天是否有任何領域實際上可能比 COVID 之前更好？你能不能把今天相對正常的區域與仍然受到限制的區域的百分比相比較？

(inaudible) question compared to pre-COVID, did you say?

（聽不清）與 COVID 之前相比的問題，你說了嗎？

Yes. I'm trying to understand, I mean, I guess that things are improving, but is there -- just given a lot of the work that's been going on to help the supply base to help the kind of velocity within the supply chain? Are there any areas that are actually structurally better. I mean maybe this is a dumb question, but I feel like it could be the case.

是的。我試圖理解，我的意思是，我想事情正在改善，但是否存在 - 只是給出了很多正在進行的工作來幫助供應基地以幫助供應鏈中的速度？是否有任何區域實際上在結構上更好。我的意思是也許這是一個愚蠢的問題，但我覺得可能是這樣。

Well, I think that I would give a lot of credit. We built 51,000 trucks in a quarter. That's a lot of output. So the supply base is doing a good job. That's a high number if you wanted to go back to pre-COVID. And our 51,000 to 54,000 in the second quarter is also a high number. So I would say that great suppliers, good partnerships there and they are doing generally a good job. And there's just always opportunities to keep improving. And we do that together with them.

好吧，我想我會給予很多信任。我們在一個季度內製造了 51,000 輛卡車。這是很多輸出。所以供應基地做得很好。如果您想回到 COVID 之前，這是一個很高的數字。而我們第二季度的 51,000 到 54,000 也是一個很高的數字。所以我會說，優秀的供應商、良好的合作夥伴關係，他們總體上做得很好。而且總是有機會不斷改進。我們和他們一起做。

Okay. All right. And then -- with regard to the CapEx bump that up a little bit this year. What incremental investments are causing the step-up? And do you expect the total to keep progressing higher or maybe in that $600 million to $700 million range for the next few years?

好的。好的。然後 - 關於今年的資本支出有所增加。哪些增量投資導致了升級？您是否預計未來幾年總額會繼續上升，或者可能在 6 億至 7 億美元的範圍內？

We think the $600 million to $650 million is the right number. We've got some really fun and exciting projects that we're working on, that are coming along nicely right now, it's the third phase of our battery electric vehicles, it's engine platforms that we're developing is new truck platforms that we're working on. Just a lot of really interesting things, and as long as we can make good progress on them, we'll spend the money and commit to that.

我們認為 6 億至 6.5 億美元是正確的數字。我們正在開展一些非常有趣和令人興奮的項目，這些項目現在進展順利，這是我們電池電動汽車的第三階段，我們正在開發的發動機平台是我們的新卡車平台正在努力。只是很多真正有趣的事情，只要我們能在這些事情上取得良好進展，我們就會花錢並致力於此。

Our next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

Can we just start with South America. I think you tweaked your industry forecast a bit lower there. So would love to hear what you're hearing on the ground in that region.

我們可以從南美開始嗎？我認為您將行業預測調低了一點。所以很想听聽您在該地區的實地聽到的內容。

Sure. I mean we've had great success so far in South America in the first quarter. What we see is there's pretty high interest rates down there. And I think there's questions about -- from the customers about what might happen with those interest rates. So there's maybe for some parts of the market, a pause in that space. But really, we still have a great backlog there and expect things to keep going. Our build rates have increased there, and we expect them to stay high. And those are the kind of primary things that are happening. So our tweak down is really about that interest rate pause that we've seen in the market a little bit.

當然。我的意思是，到目前為止，第一季度我們在南美取得了巨大成功。我們看到那裡的利率相當高。我認為客戶對這些利率可能會發生什麼有疑問。因此，對於市場的某些部分來說，該領域可能會暫停。但實際上，我們在那裡仍有大量積壓工作，並希望事情繼續下去。我們在那裡的建造率有所提高，我們希望它們保持高位。這些是正在發生的主要事情。因此，我們的下調實際上是關於我們在市場上看到的利率暫停。

Yes, at the same time, Brazil is transitioning from Euro 5 to Euro 6. And we know DAF has an excellent Euro 6 product in the market out there. So a great opportunity for us to grow our market share a little bit further.

是的，與此同時，巴西正在從歐 5 過渡到歐 6。我們知道 DAF 在市場上有出色的歐 6 產品。因此，這是我們進一步擴大市場份額的絕佳機會。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then second question on the 2Q build guidance. Any thoughts from a regional perspective, like -- is everything kind of flattish sequentially versus the 51,000 in 1Q, everything up slightly? Like just any thoughts by region would be helpful.

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後是關於 2Q 構建指南的第二個問題。從區域角度來看，任何想法，比如 - 與 1Q 的 51,000 相比，一切是否都持平，一切都略有上升？就像按地區劃分的任何想法都會有所幫助。

I wouldn't try to differentiate too much between the regions. I think we're going to see good performance in all of the regions for PACCAR.

我不會試圖在地區之間做出太多區分。我認為我們將看到 PACCAR 在所有地區的良好表現。

Our next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jerry Revich 與 Goldman Sachs 的對話。

I'm wondering if you could just talk about the cost performance. So really interesting to see operating cost per truck down about $1,000 sequentially first quarter versus fourth quarter. As we think about potential for continued improved supply chain performance, how should we be thinking about the pricing part of that equation as costs normalize for you folks? Should we think about pricing following suit? Or are we thinking about delinking the 2 based on the value proposition at this point?

我想知道你是否可以談談性價比。與第四季度相比，第一季度每輛卡車的運營成本連續下降了約 1,000 美元，這真的很有趣。當我們考慮持續改善供應鏈績效的潛力時，我們應該如何考慮該方程式的定價部分，因為成本對你們來說是正常的？我們是否應該考慮效仿定價？或者我們是否正在考慮根據此時的價值主張將 2 脫鉤？

Our focus is on making sure our customers have the best trucks in the world and we're doing that, and that has a value to them. And so that's kind of where we see ourselves positioned in the market, and that's what we would expect to continue as we look forward.

我們的重點是確保我們的客戶擁有世界上最好的卡車，我們正在這樣做，這對他們來說很有價值。所以這就是我們在市場上看到自己的定位，這就是我們期待在未來繼續下去的地方。

That's clear. And then looking at your pretax profit per truck this quarter, so 17,500 in 2019, pre-COVID, you folks had a high of 10,000. So really outstanding performance. I'm wondering, can we just step through what proportion of that would you attribute to the higher value add of the new products versus a difference in the marketplace and competitive discipline?

這很清楚。然後看看本季度每輛卡車的稅前利潤，2019 年為 17,500，在 COVID 之前，你們有 10,000 的高點。如此出色的表現。我想知道，我們能否逐步說明您認為新產品的更高附加值與市場和競爭紀律的差異有多大比例？

How would you counsel us to think about the relative sizes of those pieces and any others you would add?

您如何建議我們考慮這些部分和您要添加的任何其他部分的相對大小？

I would say that 2018, 2019 were very good years as well. So you put them in kind of comparable markets. And then I would say a lot of that value is really because of the investments we made in the products and the trucks. But as we've said earlier in the discussion, it also adds to the outstanding performance of the Parts team and what they're doing. And so it's trucks, the value they create, it's parts, the way they support the customer, and I would add (inaudible) really becoming technology and how we're employing technology, which is helping us a lot to provide reasons for people who want to buy the PACCAR premium products.

我會說 2018 年、2019 年也是非常好的年份。所以你把它們放在類似的市場中。然後我會說很多價值真的是因為我們對產品和卡車的投資。但正如我們在前面的討論中所說，它也增加了零件團隊的出色表現以及他們正在做的事情。所以它是卡車，它們創造的價值，它是零件，它們支持客戶的方式，我想補充一點（聽不清）真正成為技術以及我們如何使用技術，這對我們有很大幫助，為人們提供理由想購買 PACCAR 優質產品。

And I'm wondering, can you just expand on that point and in technology? Are we talking about the functionality of the telematics? Or what specific technology? Can you just expand on that last point, if you don't mind?

我想知道，您能否就這一點和技術進行擴展？我們是在談論遠程信息處理的功能嗎？或者俱體是什麼技術？如果你不介意的話，你能不能就最後一點展開？

Yes, sure. It's the use of telematics, which is also a great opportunity for us, and we announced that we have a partnership, an enhanced partnership with Platform Science, which is a great partner for us in terms of how we can connect the vehicle, bring useful apps to the customers, and that's accretive to their business growth. So we like to be participating in that. I think the other part of it is with the dealer systems. And we mentioned managed dealer inventory a lot over the years, but now it's like in a complete seamless operation with the dealers of them getting the parts based upon the needs as defined by PACCAR Parts. So that's a great way to see the business growth, and we continue to see that expanding over the years.

是的，當然。這是遠程信息處理的使用，這對我們來說也是一個很好的機會，我們宣布我們建立了合作夥伴關係，加強了與 Platform Science 的合作夥伴關係，就我們如何連接車輛而言，它對我們來說是一個很好的合作夥伴，帶來有用的為客戶提供應用程序，這會促進他們的業務增長。所以我們喜歡參與其中。我認為它的另一部分與經銷商系統有關。多年來我們經常提到管理經銷商庫存，但現在它就像是在一個完全無縫的操作中，他們的經銷商根據 PACCAR Parts 定義的需求獲取零件。因此，這是查看業務增長的好方法，而且多年來我們繼續看到這種增長。

Great. And if I can just sneak one last one in, Harrie. The parts performance, really strong as well in the quarter. Is this the new run rate for parts percent margins? Or as volumes are going to be down seasonally should we think about margins being good, but maybe not as good as 1Q?

偉大的。如果我能偷偷最後一個進去，Harrie。零件性能在本季度也非常強勁。這是零件利潤百分比的新運行率嗎？或者隨著銷量季節性下降，我們是否應該考慮利潤率不錯，但可能不如第一季度？

We don't guide for parts margins typically in our calls, but 32%, like you said, was really strong in the first quarter. We continue to grow the Parts business. As the Parts business grows, we leverage the cost structure. So there's a good basis for PACCAR Parts to continue that strong margin performance.

我們通常不會在電話中指導零件利潤率，但正如您所說，第一季度的 32% 確實很強勁。我們繼續發展零件業務。隨著零件業務的增長，我們利用成本結構。因此，PACCAR Parts 有一個良好的基礎來繼續保持強勁的利潤率表現。

Our next question comes from the line of Matt Elkott with Cowen & Co.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen & Co. 的 Matt Elkott。

Just one more follow-up on the parts, what you've said on parts already. If you look historically, parts revenue went from 15% of total revenue 10 years ago to 20% in '22. And I think the growth has been around 8% CAGR versus the remainder of the business at 5%, and it's been more linear, less cyclical growth. My question is, do you see this level of outsized growth continuing for Parts revenue at a similar level in -- for the next 5 years or so? And is there a sweet spot for parts as a percent of the total that you'd like to see longer term?

只是關於零件的另一個跟進，你已經在零件上說過的話。如果你回顧歷史，零部件收入從 10 年前佔總收入的 15% 上升到 22 年的 20%。我認為複合年增長率約為 8%，而其餘業務的複合年增長率為 5%，而且它更線性，週期性增長更少。我的問題是，在未來 5 年左右的時間裡，您是否認為零件收入的這種超額增長水平會持續保持在類似水平？您希望長期看到的零件佔總零件的百分比是否有一個最佳點？

I tell you, we don't think of that. We think of value creation for the customer. And I think that the Parts business is doing that. That's why it's picking up share and it's picking up overall share of the Parts business. And I think that the trend is that the world is becoming a little bit more vertical for us with our powertrains but also with technology and those things, both will contribute to further parts growth over the coming years. So I think that the value opportunity for the Parts team continues to be there for us.

我告訴你，我們不考慮那個。我們考慮為客戶創造價值。我認為零件業務正在這樣做。這就是為什麼它正在獲得份額並且正在獲得零件業務的整體份額。而且我認為趨勢是，我們的動力總成以及技術和其他東西對我們來說世界變得更加垂直，這兩者都將有助於未來幾年零件的進一步增長。所以我認為零件團隊的價值機會仍然存在。

Okay. Makes sense. And then just any update that you guys might give us on the infrastructure bill and if there's any kind of demand that can be attributable to that?

好的。說得通。然後你們可能會就基礎設施法案向我們提供任何更新，是否有任何類型的需求可歸因於此？

Yes. I think that the amount of spending being done into the economy, whether it's reshoring or infrastructure is really great for PACCAR. We're the vocational market leaders. And so as money is spent in the economy, that will be good for us in the long term as well.

是的。我認為投入經濟的支出數量，無論是回流還是基礎設施，對 PACCAR 來說都是非常好的。我們是職業市場的領導者。因此，隨著錢花在經濟上，從長遠來看，這對我們也有好處。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jeff Kauffman 與 Vertical Research Partners 的對話。

Just 2 questions. You mentioned interest rates and the effect on your South American outlook. Can you talk at all as to your dealers with their floor plans and how interest rates might be affecting your dealer base?

只有2個問題。您提到了利率及其對南美前景的影響。您能否與您的經銷商談談他們的平面圖以及利率如何影響您的經銷商基礎？

Let me add for one thing and then see if Harrie has any other thoughts. I'd say that structurally -- in North America, interest rates are still at a reasonable level. So from a historical standpoint, they're very much in the middle of the world right -- or middle of the road of what history has had -- so we're not very worried about interest rates here. And I don't know if Harrie, you'd add anything else.

讓我補充一件事，然後看看哈里是否還有其他想法。我想說的是結構性的——在北美，利率仍處於合理水平。因此，從歷史的角度來看，它們在很大程度上處於世界的正中央——或者說正處於歷史道路的正中央——所以我們並不是很擔心這裡的利率。我不知道 Harrie 是否會添加任何其他內容。

Brazil is a little different story because rates in Brazil are running at what is 14 kind of percent rate, but that's completely different than what we see in North America or Europe. And -- so it gets a little bit more customer and deal retention in Brazil. But like we said, the new trucks come with a lot better fuel economy. So if you're buying a new truck, the fuel savings for many customers offset the higher interest rate expense.

巴西的情況有點不同，因為巴西的利率為 14%，但這與我們在北美或歐洲看到的完全不同。而且 - 所以它在巴西獲得了更多的客戶和交易保留。但正如我們所說，新卡車的燃油經濟性要好得多。因此，如果您要購買一輛新卡車，許多客戶節省的燃料可以抵消較高的利率費用。

All right. And then I just want to pivot to a more forward-looking question. You were talking about the new telematics packages, and I know we don't have autonomous trucks on the road yet, but everywhere I go, there's an Aurora Peterbilt truck on display some place.

好的。然後我只想轉向一個更具前瞻性的問題。你在談論新的遠程信息處理包，我知道我們還沒有自動駕駛卡車上路，但無論我走到哪裡，都有一輛 Aurora Peterbilt 卡車在某個地方展出。

When do you think we start to see revenue potentially from things like connectivity, things that you're preparing for the customer? And then as we start to see that, does that reported as part of the truck business? Is that a stand-alone business as you think about it? I just kind of want to think forward on maybe some new streams you may generate from these technology additions?

您認為我們什麼時候開始從連接性、您為客戶準備的東西中看到潛在的收入？然後，當我們開始看到這一點時，是否將其報告為卡車業務的一部分？你認為這是一個獨立的業務嗎？我只是想考慮一下您可能會從這些技術添加中產生一些新的流？

Sure. I think from a connected vehicle standpoint, we do see revenue, I'd call it indirect revenue and profits that we get. We've been talking a lot about the Parts business. We can talk about the vehicles being connected and what it does for the customers, but it's an indirect play in. So it shows up in parts and it shows up in truck. It even shows up in financial services in terms of how we're able to help customers manage their business. From the autonomy standpoint, Jeff, I'd say that Aurora is a really good partner and we're pleased with the progress they're making with their autonomous driver, and we're pleased with the progress we're making on having an autonomous vehicle platform that operates with that. And together, we're just trying to make sure that we focus on safety being the primary tenet of this. And we'll be on the road with those with drivers now. And I think that we'll just have to wait and see when it will be time for us to go into a revenue-producing autonomy model that doesn't have a driver and that could be a while.

當然。我認為從互聯汽車的角度來看，我們確實看到了收入，我稱之為間接收入和我們獲得的利潤。我們一直在談論零件業務。我們可以談論被連接的車輛以及它為客戶做了什麼，但這是一種間接的參與。所以它出現在零件上，出現在卡車上。就我們如何幫助客戶管理他們的業務而言，它甚至出現在金融服務領域。從自主的角度來看，Jeff，我想說 Aurora 是一個非常好的合作夥伴，我們對他們在自動駕駛方面取得的進展感到滿意，我們對我們在擁有與它一起運行的自動駕駛汽車平台。我們一起努力確保我們將安全作為首要原則。我們現在將與那些有司機的人一起上路。而且我認為我們只需要拭目以待，看看什麼時候我們可以進入沒有司機的創收自主模式，這可能需要一段時間。

Thank you. There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

謝謝。此時隊列中沒有其他問題。公司有沒有補充說明？

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call, and thank you, operator.

我們要感謝大家加入電話會議，並感謝接線員。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，PACCAR 的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。