帕卡 (PCAR) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加帕卡公司2022年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）

Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time. I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

今天的電話會議正在錄音，如有任何人對此有異議，請立即掛斷。現在我謹介紹帕卡公司投資者關係總監肯‧黑斯廷斯先生。黑斯廷斯先生，請開始發言。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice Present and Controller.

早安.歡迎各位透過電話和網路直播收聽節目的朋友們。我是PACCAR投資者關係總監肯‧黑斯廷斯。今天早上與我一同出席的還有執行長普雷斯頓·費特、總裁兼首席財務官哈里·希珀斯以及高級副總裁兼財務總監邁克爾·巴克利。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the Investor Relations page of paccar.com. I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

與以往的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有參與電話會議的媒體成員以僅收聽模式參與。今天公佈的部分資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期業績的總體經濟和競爭狀況。更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及paccar.com網站的投資者關係頁面。現在，我謹介紹普雷斯頓‧費特先生。

Good morning. Harrie Schippers, Michael Barkley and I will update you on our first quarter results and business highlights.

早安.我和哈里·希珀斯、邁克爾·巴克利將向大家報告我們第一季的業績和業務亮點。

PACCAR achieved excellent revenues and net income in the first quarter. PACCAR sales and financial services revenues increased 11% to $6.470 billion. Net income increased 28% to $601 million. PACCAR Parts first quarter revenues increased by 20% to a record $1.39 billion. Parts pretax profits were a record $340 million, 35% higher than the same period last year. Truck, Parts and Other gross margins expanded to 13.4% in the first quarter compared to 11.6% in the fourth quarter of last year.

帕卡集團第一季營收和淨利均表現優異。帕卡集團銷售及金融服務收入成長11%，達到64.7億美元。淨利成長28%，達到6.01億美元。帕卡集團零件業務第一季營收成長20%，創下13.9億美元的新高。零件業務稅前利潤也創下3.4億美元的新高，較去年同期成長35%。卡車、零件及其他業務的毛利率從去年第四季的11.6%上升至第一季的13.4%。

PACCAR Financial had a record quarter, increasing pretax income by 92% to $147 million due to healthy new business volume and strong used truck results. I appreciate PACCAR's outstanding employees who delivered the excellent financial results and the highest quality trucks and transportation solutions in the industry.

PACCAR Financial本季業績創歷史新高，稅前利潤成長92%至1.47億美元，這主要得益於新業務量的成長和二手卡車銷售的強勁表現。我衷心感謝PACCAR的優秀員工，正是他們的辛勤付出，才成就了卓越的財務業績，並為業界提供了最高品質的卡車和運輸解決方案。

Last year, PACCAR introduced a complete new product lineup of Peterbilt, Kenworth and DAF heavy and medium-duty trucks. This was a record number of new product introductions and these investments are generating excellent results for the company. Our customers are benefiting from the industry-leading fuel efficiency while drivers love the new digital instrumentation, luxurious interiors, stylish LED headlights and beautiful exterior styling.

去年，PACCAR推出了全新的Peterbilt、Kenworth和DAF重型及中型卡車產品線。這是公司推出新產品數量最多的一次，這些投資也為公司帶來了卓越的成效。我們的客戶受益於業界領先的燃油效率，而駕駛者則對全新​​的數位化儀錶板、豪華的內裝、時尚的LED大燈和優美的外觀設計讚不絕口。

The new trucks and growth in PACCAR's aftermarket business contributed to the increased gross margins this quarter. We expect gross margins to continue increasing this year as the new trucks become a higher percentage of the build. Looking at the economy, U.S. GDP is estimated to grow 3.2% and industrial production is projected to expand 4.4% this year, which continues to provide a favorable operating environment for PACCAR and its customers.

本季度，新卡車的推出以及PACCAR售後市場業務的成長推動了毛利率的提升。我們預計，隨著新卡車在總產量中所佔比例的提高，毛利率將在今年繼續成長。展望經濟情勢，預計今年美國GDP將成長3.2%，工業生產將成長4.4%，這將持續為PACCAR及其客戶創造有利的經營環境。

We estimate the U.S. and Canadian Class 8 market to be in the range of 260,000 to 290,000 trucks. The European and U.K. economies are also experiencing good economic growth. Economists project U.K. GDP to increase 4% and European GDP to increase by 3.2%. The 2022 European truck market is expected to be in a range of 270,000 to 300,000 trucks. We expect truck market to remain strong.

我們估計美國和加拿大的8級卡車市場規模在26萬至29萬輛之間。歐洲和英國的經濟也呈現良好的成長態勢。經濟學家預測英國GDP將成長4%，歐洲GDP將成長3.2%。預計2022年歐洲卡車市場規模將在27萬至30萬輛之間。我們預計卡車市場將保持強勁勢頭。

PACCAR's industry-leading new truck lineup, highly efficient factories, best-in-class parts and Financial Services business and the continued development of advanced technologies are creating an exciting future.

PACCAR 業界領先的新卡車產品線、高效的工廠、一流的零件和金融服務業務以及先進技術的不斷發展，正在創造一個令人興奮的未來。

Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial Services and other business highlights.

哈里希珀斯將介紹 PACCAR 零件、PACCAR 金融服務和其他業務亮點的最新情況。

Thanks, Preston.

謝謝你，普雷斯頓。

PACCAR delivered 43,000 trucks during the first quarter. We're focused on increasing production in our factories, and estimate second quarter deliveries to be in the range of 44,000 to 48,000 trucks. Truck, Parts and Other gross margins increased to 13.4% in the first quarter.

帕卡第一季交付了43,000輛卡車。我們正致力於提高工廠的產能，預計第二季交付量將在44,000至48,000輛之間。第一季卡車、零件及其他業務的毛利率成長至13.4%。

With higher production and a more favorable mix of new model trucks to be delivered, we anticipate second quarter gross margins to increase and be in the range of 13.5% to 14%. Many customers are operating their trucks longer than they normally would, which has increased the fleet age. Truck utilization is very high due to the strong economy and freight activity.

由於產量提高，且即將交付的新車型卡車組合更加理想，我們預計第二季毛利率將有所增長，達到13.5%至14%。許多客戶的卡車使用壽命比平常更長，導致車隊車齡增加。由於經濟情勢強勁且貨運活動活躍，卡車利用率非常高。

As Preston shared, PACCAR Parts had an outstanding first quarter with Parts gross margins growing to a record 30.1%. PACCAR Parts business model, which is based on convenience and technology, contributes to our customers' success. PACCAR is best-in-class at maximizing uptime for customers by having high-quality parts conveniently available when needed.

正如普雷斯頓所說，PACCAR零件業務第一季表現出色，毛利率成長至創紀錄的30.1%。 PACCAR零件業務模式以便捷性和技術為基礎，協助客戶成功。 PACCAR始終致力於為客戶提供便利的高品質零件，最大限度地延長客戶的設備正常運作時間，在業界處於領先地位。

The success of PACCAR Parts is driven by an expanding network of 18 parts distribution centers and 2,200 dealer locations, 250 independent TRP stores as well as technologies like managed dealer inventory and innovative e-commerce systems.

PACCAR Parts 的成功得益於其不斷擴大的網絡，包括 18 個零件配送中心和 2,200 個經銷商網點、250 家獨立的 TRP 商店，以及管理經銷商庫存和創新電子商務系統等技術。

PACCAR is continuing its investments by opening a new distribution center in Louisville, Kentucky, this quarter. PACCAR Financial Services benefited in the first quarter from strong new loan and lease business, high used truck prices and excellent portfolio quality.

PACCAR本季將在肯塔基州路易斯維爾開設一家新的配送中心，繼續加強投資。 PACCAR金融服務公司第一季受益於強勁的新貸款和租賃業務、高企的二手卡車價格以及優質的資產組合。

Revenues were $366 million in the first quarter. Pretax income was a record $147 million, 92% higher than last year. The silver lining to the industry-wide undersupply of semiconductors is continued strong demand for PACCAR preowned vehicles. Customers appreciate their superior reliability and durability and pay a premium. PACCAR Financial has been increasing its retail used trucks center capacity. And now it's 12 facilities worldwide. These facilities sell used trucks at retail prices, which contributes to higher profits.

第一季營收達3.66億美元。稅前利潤創下1.47億美元的新高，較去年同期成長92%。半導體產業整體供應短缺帶來的意外之喜是，PACCAR二手車的需求持續強勁。客戶青睞PACCAR二手車卓越的可靠性和耐用性，並願意支付溢價。 PACCAR金融公司一直在擴大其二手卡車零售中心的規模，目前在全球擁有12家門市。這些門市以零售價銷售二手卡車，從而提高了利潤。

PACCAR Financial is opening another used truck retail center in Madrid, Spain, this year. PACCAR has invested $7.3 billion in new and expanded facilities, innovative products and new technologies during the past decade. These investments have created the newest and most impressive lineup of trucks in the industry.

PACCAR Financial 今年將在西班牙馬德里開設另一家二手卡車零售中心。過去十年，PACCAR 已投資 73 億美元用於新建和擴建設施、創新產品和新技術。這些投資打造了業界最新、最令人印象深刻的卡車產品陣容。

Capital expenditures are projected to be $425 million to $475 million and research and development expenses are estimated to be $350 million to $400 million. PACCAR is continuing its investments in clean combustion, zero emissions, autonomy and connected vehicle programs.

預計資本支出為4.25億美元至4.75億美元，研發費用預估為3.5億美元至4億美元。 PACCAR將繼續投資於清潔燃燒、零排放、自動駕駛和連網汽車項目。

Thank you. We'd be pleased to answer your questions.

謝謝。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Your first question will come from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan.

你的第一個問題將來自摩根大通的塔米·扎卡利亞。

Congrats on the solid results. A couple of questions from me today. First, can you update us on any ragtag units in inventory end of the quarter? And what kind of cost absorption impact it had in 2Q? And if you expect any remnant impact in the second quarter as well?

恭喜你們取得如此優異的業績。今天我有幾個問題。首先，能否告知一下季度末庫存是否有零散庫存？這些零散庫存對第二季的成本吸收產生了怎樣的影響？你們預計第二季還會有任何後續影響嗎？

Sure thing. Good to talk to you. Well, I'd say on the ragtags, we are in roughly the same spot now as we were at the end of the year. So we have a managed number of off-line and our team is doing a really fantastic job of working through a global issue and getting trucks to our customers. As it relates to cost, our price cost was roughly even with each other in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis.

當然可以。很高興和你聊聊。嗯，就目前的情況而言，我們和年底差不多。所以，我們控制住了部分車輛的故障率，我們的團隊在解決全球性問題、確保卡車及時送達客戶方面做得非常出色。至於成本方面，第一季我們的價格與去年同期基本持平。

Got it. And a second one from me. Do you expect chip availability challenges to creep up this year as certain automotive production restarts? Or do you expect gradual improvement throughout the rest of the year?

明白了。我還有一個問題。您預計隨著部分汽車生產線的複工，晶片供應方面的挑戰今年會逐漸加劇嗎？還是預計今年剩餘時間情況會逐步改善？

I think that as Harrie announced, right, we expect our build to increase. So we do anticipate some improvement. Having said that, I would tell you that our chips have become less of the issue and more there's the general supply challenges in terms of getting all the materials we need into the plants at any given time.

我認為正如哈利所宣布的那樣，我們預計產能將會增加。所以我們確實預期會有一些改善。話雖如此，我想說的是，晶片供應問題已經有所緩解，現在更大的挑戰在於如何確保工廠在任何時候都能獲得所需的全部原材料。

And again, our suppliers, our teams, our purchasing teams, the ops teams are all doing a really good job of working through that.

再次強調，我們的供應商、團隊、採購團隊和營運團隊都在努力解決這個問題，他們做得非常好。

Your next question will come from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS.

你的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

I wonder if I'd just ask you to maybe quantify the numbers on those partly completed trucks. I think you said it's about the same spot as in Q1. Does that mean -- you had about 3,000 left, I think, coming into the quarter. Did those all get shipped and then you kind of came out with 3,000 new ones? How do we think about -- maybe a little more quantification there, if we could?

我想請您量化一下那些半成品卡車的數量。我記得您說過數量和第一季差不多。這是否意味著——我記得第一季初您還有大約3000輛未完成的卡車。這些卡車都出貨了嗎？然後您又完成了3000輛新車？我們能否就此進行更詳細的量化分析？

Sure. Fair question enough. He's enough to answer, is -- we did have, like you said, 3,000 at the end of the year. And that number is in the low 3,000s right now, and it is definitely different trucks. So we get the parts in, we work through them. The teams get them to our customers who really need trucks right now. And then some other issue might come up, and we work on getting that resolved.

當然。問得好。他足以回答這個問題——正如你所說，我們年底確實有3000輛。現在這個數字也差不多在3000輛左右，而且肯定是不同的卡車。所以我們會收到零件，然後再處理。我們的團隊會把卡車送到那些急需卡車的客戶手中。之後可能還會出現其他問題，我們會努力解決。

Okay. Fair enough. And then just relative to the Parts business, just curious what was better than expected in the quarter and the growth rate was about double what you were looking for? And how much was that pricing versus volume? And if you have any particular expectations for Q2 and the full year on growth rates?

好的，沒問題。那麼，就零件業務而言，我很好奇本季哪些方面超出了預期，成長率也幾乎是預期的兩倍？價格與銷售量的關係如何？您對第二季和全年的成長率有什麼具體預期嗎？

Well, I'll share a couple comments and maybe Harrie has some too. But I would say that one of the big things in the Parts business that's driving growth is an excellent team of people that are doing a really good job of getting our systems connected to our dealers and customers, which is bringing a high degree of stickiness to our business, and using great technology to ensure that they -- their first look and last look is at PACCAR for where they get their parts.

嗯，我先分享幾點看法，也許哈利也會有一些想法。但我認為，零件業務成長的關鍵因素之一是我們擁有一支優秀的團隊，他們出色地完成了系統與經銷商和客戶的對接工作，這極大地增強了客戶黏性，並利用先進的技術確保客戶在選擇零件供應商時，首先想到的就是帕卡。

Another factor is over the years, we've increased the proprietary content of our trucks and engines, which is helping to grow that business, and we think that has sustainable legs to it. And I think the other part is, obviously, there's a lot of freight business out there. So people are running trucks and trucks they are running consume parts, which is good for us.

另一個因素是，多年來，我們不斷提高卡車和引擎的專有零件含量，這有助於業務成長，我們認為這種成長勢頭能夠持續下去。此外，顯而易見，貨運業務量龐大。人們都在運作卡車，而卡車需要消耗零件，這對我們來說是件好事。

Harrie, anything you'd add?

哈里，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Those are the main items. The average age of trucks is going up. They consume more parts. It also means there's going to be a strong market for trucks for probably a longer period of time. The strong demand for parts we've seen especially in North America where we have the PACCAR engine successfully growing and contributing to that Parts' growth.

以上是主要因素。卡車的平均車齡正在上升，零件消耗量也隨之增加。這意味著卡車市場在較長一段時間內都將保持強勁的需求。尤其是在北美地區，我們看到對零件的強勁需求，PACCAR引擎的成功發展也促進了零件市場的成長。

And you could think -- we could continue to see kind of upwards of this 10% to 20% growth rate for the rest of the year in Parts?

你可以想像——在今年剩餘的時間裡，零件產業的成長率可能會繼續保持在 10% 到 20% 以上？

We expect the second quarter Parts sales and results to be very similar to the first quarter. So -- yes, we'll continue to perform very strongly in the Parts sector.

我們預計第二季零件銷售和業績將與第一季非常相似。所以——是的，我們在零件領域將繼續保持強勁的業績。

Your next question will come from the line of Tim Thein with Citigroup.

你的下一個問題將來自花旗集團的提姆泰恩。

Great. Just a follow-up. Preston, on the comments earlier on the gross margins for the -- your expectations for the second quarter. So just as it relates to price cost, so if that was roughly in line in the first quarter as you roll through more and you get more of the 2022 pricing, presumably more of those are starting to flow through the P&L, how should we be thinking about the interplay between price versus the variable costs here in the second quarter?

好的。還有一個後續問題。普雷斯頓，關於你之前提到的毛利率——你對第二季的預期。就價格成本而言，如果第一季毛利率大致符合預期，隨著2022年定價的逐步實施，這些成本應該會更多地反映在損益表中，那麼我們應該如何看待第二季度價格與變動成本之間的相互作用呢？

Great question, good conversation to have with you. I'd say that we should expect that we should see some improvement as we continue on, in part just because of what you mentioned. But I'll also make the mention of these fantastic new trucks in Europe and North America being a contributor to that. So as they grow in percentage of build, that's helpful.

問得好，很高興和你聊這個。我認為隨著時間的推移，我們應該會看到一些改善，部分原因正如你所說。但我也要提到，歐洲和北美那些出色的新型卡車也對此有所貢獻。隨著它們產量佔比的提高，這對我們很有幫助。

So those are the positives to it. And obviously, there's the supply base issue of making sure we build as many trucks as we can and sometimes that's less efficient than we'd like it to be, but we want to satisfy the customers' demand. So that's the balance to it.

所以，以上是正面的方面。當然，還有供應方面的問題，我們需要確保盡可能多地生產卡車，有時效率可能不如預期，但我們希望滿足客戶的需求。這就是需要權衡的地方。

Got it. Okay. And maybe, Preston, if we could -- obviously, a very healthy market as you hear commentary from your larger over-the-road customers, at least from the public guys in North America. Maybe they don't obviously represent the entire market so -- and there's been a number of new entrants in North America that have come into the market in the last year or 2, and you're facing some rather significant increase in operating costs and now the prospect of higher rates.

明白了。好的。普雷斯頓，或許我們可以——顯然，正如你從你的大型公路運輸客戶那裡聽到的評論，至少從北美的公共部門客戶那裡聽到的評論來看，這是一個非常健康的市場。當然，他們可能並不代表整個市場——而且在過去一兩年裡，北美市場湧現了許多新進業者，你們正面臨著營運成本大幅上漲以及費率上漲的前景。

Just maybe what are you hearing as you kind of talk to dealers, again, a bit more in the over-the-road side in North America and Europe? Again, we can all see the headlines and commentary from the large public TL players, but just across the customer base, just kind of what's the tone and sentiment?

您在與經銷商交談時，尤其是在北美和歐洲的公路運輸領域，聽到了什麼？我們都能看到大型上市運輸車廠商的頭條新聞和評論，但就整個客戶群而言，他們的基調和情緒究竟如何？

I would -- I understand where we're coming from, and I would say that the customers we have are extremely good at operating their businesses and doing a great job. They have a lot of freight to be hauled right now. And they have a lot of requests for our fantastic new trucks. So that's putting -- that's creating a market environment or an environment -- a business environment for us, which should make it strong for a long period of time. As you mentioned, there have been some new entrants, but I think they operate really on the fringe of it. Maybe they're contributors to some of the used truck pricing we see. But I don't think it's really material to the strength of the market.

我明白我們面臨的困境，而且我認為我們的客戶都非常擅長經營業務，做得非常好。他們目前有很多貨物需要運輸，而且對我們性能卓越的新型卡車需求量很大。這為我們創造了一個良好的市場環境，或者說一個有利於我們長期發展的營商環境。正如您所提到的，確實有一些新進入者，但我認為他們只是在市場邊緣徘徊。或許他們對二手卡車的價格造成了一定的影響，但我認為這對市場的整體實力影響不大。

Your next question will come from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.

你的下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的 Jamie Cook。

Nice quarter. I guess, first, can you just help us understand sort of what percent of build was your new product launches in the first quarter and how we expect that the new trucks as a percent of build to play out in the second, third and fourth quarter. So I guess that's my first question. And then can you help us understand sort of how far your backlog is out and what your market share is trending within backlog, given what I assume some of the success with some of these new trucks. I mean it looks like your Europe market share went up as well. So I'm just trying to get a sense for backlog and market share trends as we exit 2022.

不錯的季度業績。首先，能否請您幫忙了解一下，第一季新產品上市佔總產量的百分比是多少？我們預計第二、三、四季新卡車的產量佔比會是多少？這是我的第一個問題。其次，鑑於部分新卡車取得了成功，能否請您幫忙了解目前的訂單積壓情況以及訂單積壓中的市佔率趨勢？我猜想，您的歐洲市場佔有率似乎也有所成長。所以，我只是想了解一下2022年底的訂單積壓和市佔率趨勢。

Sure thing. As a percent -- first part of your question was as a percentage of the new build...

當然可以。以百分比表示——你問題的第一部分是關於新建築的百分比…

For the first quarter. Yes, and then how we think about the rest of the year.

第一季是這樣。是的，然後我們再考慮今年剩下的時間。

Right, right. So the first quarter it was roughly 1/3 of our build in Europe of the new product, and that will increase in the second quarter, maybe we'll get to the halfway point or 50% of our build as we get into the second quarter and then increase from there in the third and fourth.

對，對。所以第一季我們在歐洲的新產品產量大約佔總產量的三分之一，第二季這個數字會增加，也許到第二季我們就能達到產量的一半或50%，然後在第三季和第四季持續成長。

And in North America, the new Peterbilt Model 579, the Kenworth T680 are roughly, again, 1/3 of our build in North America, and those models have transitioned now. I mean, our new medium duty product, which we build is probably less than 50% yet transition to the new model and it will grow through the year. So that kind of covers that.

在北美，新款彼得比爾特579型和肯沃斯T680型卡車大約占我們在北美總產量的三分之一，而且這些車型現在已經完成了換代。我的意思是，我們新的中型卡車產品，目前產量可能不到總產量的50%，但正在逐步過渡到新車型，而且這一比例將在今年持續增長。以上就是全部情況。

As far as the backlog, look, our backlog is really solid. We're substantially full for the year in Europe and North America. As we adjust build rates, we can create some openings if we can get the parts for that. So there's some positive area there, but really a strong backlog. All the conversations with the customers are that they really need trucks and continue to do so. So the backlog feels solid.

至於積壓訂單，我們的積壓訂單非常充足。我們在歐洲和北美的年度訂單基本上已經排滿。如果我們能獲得所需的零件，調整生產速度後，我們可以騰出一些訂單。所以這方面存在一些正面的因素，但積壓訂單仍然非常充足。與客戶的溝通表明，他們非常需要卡車，而且需求持續成長。因此，積壓訂單看起來很穩定。

And then as far as our market share trends, as you know, like in Europe, in our first quarter, we're at 17% market share in Europe, which is a really strong market share. And for North America, we've grown from 24% to 28% quarter -- for the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022, so year-over-year growth. And we'd expect to be in that 30%, 31% range on the full year.

至於我們的市佔率趨勢，如您所知，在歐洲，我們第一季的市佔率達到了17%，這是一個非常強勁的市場佔有率。在北美，我們的市佔率從2021年第一季的24%成長到2022年第一季的28%，實現了年成長。我們預計全年市佔率將達到30%至31%。

Your next question will come from the line of Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies.

你的下一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Stephen Volkmann。

Maybe just a quick follow-on to Jamie's question. Preston, by 2023, should we assume that pretty much all of production is these new products? Or does it still -- do you still continue to offer the older stuff as well?

我只是想快速補充Jamie的問題。 Preston，到2023年，我們是否可以認為你們幾乎所有的產品都是這些新產品？還是說你們還是會繼續銷售舊產品？

So a fair question. And we'll continue to offer some of the other products as well into 2023, but there's a transition going on there.

問得好。我們會在2023年繼續提供其他一些產品，但目前正處於過渡期。

Okay. And then can you talk a little bit about Europe specifically? I mean it seems like there's a number of raw materials and energy costs and freight and so forth, have all kind of inflected quite a bit higher over the past few weeks in connection with what's going on in Eastern Europe. And I assume that's a bit of a headwind for you guys at some point. But how should we think about that? Does it take a while to flow into your cost structure? Do you think you can kind of cover it with pricing on real time? Just how does that dynamic work in Europe specifically?

好的。那麼您能否具體談談歐洲的情況？我的意思是，似乎過去幾週，由於東歐局勢的影響，許多原材料、能源成本、運費等等都大幅上漲。我猜這對你們來說在某種程度上是個不利因素。我們該如何看待這個問題？這些成本上漲需要一段時間才能反映到你們的成本結構中嗎？你們認為可以透過即時定價來應對嗎？這種動態變化在歐洲的具體影響是什麼？

And maybe Harrie can offer some comments on that?

哈里或許可以就此發表一些看法？

Steve, our cost situation in Europe has not been so much different from North America. So we've seen direct material cost increases and price increases, which have been similar.

史蒂夫，我們在歐洲的成本情況與北美並沒有太大差異。我們都看到了原物料成本和價格的上漲，情況也類似。

We're not exposed too much as far as we can tell right now to this situation in Ukraine and Russia. So our parts availability and the ability to produce trucks has been good. I think the economy and customer demand is very similar to what Preston just mentioned. Customers want to have their trucks. They want to have more trucks, they want to have them faster. So really strong market this year. That's also why we increased the range of our outlook for Europe a little bit this time. And we think it will be a strong month -- strong market going forward. So very, very similar to what we see in North America.

就我們目前所知，我們受烏克蘭和俄羅斯局勢的影響並不大。因此，我們的零件供應和卡車生產能力一直良好。我認為經濟情勢和客戶需求與普雷斯頓剛才提到的非常相似。客戶想要盡快拿到卡車，而且數量更多。所以今年的市場非常強勁。這也是我們這次略微上調歐洲市場預期範圍的原因。我們認為本月市場表現依然強勁，未來幾個月市場也將保持強勁動能。這與我們在北美看到的情況非常相似。

Your next question will come from the line of David Raso with Evercore ISI.

你的下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

When I think about 2023 and around the industry currently, the orders are being a bit suppressed. When you open your order book for '23 -- and maybe it's a statement for the industry as well, what you're hearing from your customers? Do you expect orders to reaccelerate given they're suppressed today? And then I'm curious your view about demand for '23 if you think they're going to accelerate once those books are open.

展望2023年以及目前的產業情勢，訂單量似乎有些低迷。當您開始接受2023年的訂單時——或許這也代表了整個行業的情況——您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼？鑑於目前的低迷狀態，您預期訂單量會重新加速成長嗎？另外，我很想知道您對2023年的需求有何看法，您認為一旦訂單開放，需求量是否會加速成長。

Sure, David. Thanks for the question.

當然可以，大衛。謝謝你的提問。

We do expect that 2023 should be a good year for several reasons really. We expect that our new trucks, as I said, will be a growing percentage of the build. Those trucks, the fuel economy they provide is compelling for people to want to get the new trucks into their fleet, which is going to be really good for their operating costs. So we expect that will drive demand. And so as 2023 gets closer to us and we start taking a substantial number of more orders, we'll see that to be a -- we predict that will be good order intake.

我們預計2023年將是業績不錯的一年，原因有很多。正如我之前所說，我們預計新款卡車的產量佔比將會持續成長。這些卡車卓越的燃油經濟性極具吸引力，能夠有效降低營運成本，吸引客戶將它們納入車隊。因此，我們預計這將推動市場需求。隨著2023年的臨近，我們將開始接到更多訂單，預計訂單量將持續成長。

So no dampening in your review of '23 with any of the macro developments since last quarter. Is that a fair general assumption to (inaudible)?

所以，自上個季度以來的任何宏觀經濟發展都沒有削弱您對2023年的評估。對於（聽不清楚）來說，這是一個合理的普遍假設嗎？

There is that view out there, I guess. But as we look at it also, the other view is that the economy is growing, and we expect the GDP growth is positive, that freight volumes stay at a high level, that truck age is up 10% to 15%, and then we have fantastic new trucks. All of those for PACCAR are good news in terms of what we expect the future to look like.

我想確實存在這種觀點。但我們也看到另一個觀點：經濟正在成長，我們預期GDP將實現正成長，貨運量將維持在高位，卡車車齡成長10%到15%，而且我們還有性能卓越的新型卡車。所有這些對PACCAR來說都是利好消息，預示著我們對未來發展的樂觀預期。

Then on the deliveries for 2Q versus 1Q, midpoint up about 7%. Can you take us through the geographies with a little bit of help on each one sequentially, U.S., Canada, Europe and other?

那麼，關於第二季與第一季的交付量，中間值成長了約7%。您能否依地區依序簡要介紹一下，例如美國、加拿大、歐洲和其他地區？

I think I'll offer a couple of comments. Harrie can add anything he wants to, anyone else -- but I would say that we do expect volumes to grow in each of the regions in the second quarter and contribution to that 44,000 to 48,000 units. And then specifically inside of that, it's harder to tell because the supply base issues can be unique month by month.

我想補充幾點。哈利可以補充任何他想補充的內容，其他人也可以——但我認為，我們預計第二季度各地區的銷量都會增長，總計將達到 44,000 至 48,000 輛。至於具體到這些地區，則很難預測，因為供應情況每個月都可能有所不同。

Europe typically has fewer working days in the second quarter, a little bit more national holidays in different countries at different moments in time. So that would be an offset maybe a little bit, but we've also seen that the material availability in Europe is good, increasing production there. So overall, I would think that all regions would make a contribution to the higher production in the second quarter.

歐洲第二季度的工作日通常較少，而且不同國家的法定假日也略多一些，時間也不盡相同。這可能會在一定程度上抵消產量下降的影響，但我們也看到歐洲的原材料供應充足，從而帶動了當地的生產成長。因此，我認為總體而言，所有地區都會對第二季產量的成長做出貢獻。

Your next question will come from the line of John Joyner with BMO.

你的下一個問題將來自約翰喬伊納與BMO的合作系列。

So I guess, first -- and you gave some color in your release, but is there anything else that you can offer on the performance of the Financial Services business? I mean, if I go back, say, 35 years, which is as far back as the model goes, the profitability has never been this impressive. So if you can add anything else to that? And do you anticipate this continuing for the rest of the year?

所以我想，首先——您在新聞稿中已經做了一些說明，但關於金融服務業務的業績，您還有什麼可以補充的嗎？我的意思是，如果回顧過去35年（這是我們模型可以追溯到的最早時期），盈利能力從未如此出色。還能補充什麼嗎？您預計這種勢頭會持續到今年年底嗎？

The finance company results were excellent in the first quarter. I think the team has done an amazing job creating a strong book of business, with strong A and B credits. Past dues are less than 0.5%, so customers are paying their bills on time.

這家金融公司第一季的業績非常出色。我認為團隊在打造穩健的業務組合方面做得非常出色，A級和B級信用評級都很高。逾期率低於0.5%，表示客戶都能準時付款。

Like we said in the press release, used truck business continues to be very strong. I think a big difference maybe compared to 20 or 30 years ago is the retail used truck centers that the finance company has established. We have 12 of those now that allows us to sell a bigger portion of our used trucks directly to end customers, and that helps profitability.

正如我們在新聞稿中所述，二手卡車業務依然非常強勁。我認為與二三十年前相比，最大的改變或許在於金融公司所設立的二手卡車零售中心。我們現在擁有12家這樣的中心，這使我們能夠將更大比例的二手卡車直接銷售給終端客戶，從而提升了盈利能力。

So we expect the finance company to do well for the remainder of this year, although the supply of used trucks could be a little less in the second and the third quarter because customers hold on to their trucks because they're waiting for new trucks. And it again underlines how strong the demand for the new trucks is going to be.

因此，我們預計這家金融公司今年剩餘時間業績良好，儘管第二季和第三季二手卡車的供應量可能會略有減少，因為客戶會因為等待新車而繼續持有舊車。這也再次凸顯了市場對新卡車的強勁需求。

Okay. Okay. That's great. And then maybe just following up on that, the -- when you mentioned the used truck centers, I mean, I guess how much is left to go there with building those out? And then I guess the same question on the parts business in terms of geographic -- how much geographic build-out remains for that business, both TRP stores as well as the distribution centers?

好的，好的，太好了。然後我想就此追問一下——您剛才提到了二手卡車中心，我的意思是，這些中心的建設還剩下多少工作要做？還有，關於零件業務，從地理分佈的角度來看，包括TRP門市和配送中心在內，還剩下多少地域擴張空間？

So on the used truck centers, we've added a couple of used truck centers and I think per year in the last couple of years, made some upgrades, adding another one this year. There's definitely opportunity to add a few more. I would say that it's still a minority of the trucks we sell through the used truck centers. So there's still room of opportunity to grow in that area. And on the parts, Preston?

所以，關於二手卡車中心，我們新增了幾家，而且我認為過去幾年每年都會進行一些升級，今年又新增了一家。肯定還有增加幾家的機會。我想說，透過二手卡車中心銷售的卡車仍然只占我們總銷量的一小部分。所以，這方面還有很大的成長空間。至於零件方面，普雷斯頓？

Yes, I think on the parts side of it, if you think about that, I'd say that the parts team is doing -- has the opportunity of continued growth. We've built out distribution centers. We'll continue to do that. That puts distribution centers closer to our dealers, closer to our customers, which gets an increased percentage of same-day delivery.

是的，我認為就零件方面而言，如果你仔細考慮一下，我認為零件團隊有持續成長的機會。我們已經建立了配送中心，並且會繼續這樣做。這使得配送中心更靠近我們的經銷商和客戶，從而提高了當日送達率。

But equally important, if not more so, is the kinds of systems we're implementing and the capability to connect with the customers directly and make sure that their trucks are operating the way they want them to and get them trucks and parts that they need every single day. So we use data analytics. We have connected systems with our dealers, and we think that has a great sustained future.

但同樣重要，甚至更為重要的是，我們正在實施的系統類型，以及我們與客戶直接溝通的能力，確保他們的卡車按照他們期望的方式運行，並每天為他們提供所需的卡車和零件。因此，我們運用數據分析。我們已將系統與經銷商連接起來，我們認為這具有良好的可持續發展前景。

Your next question will come from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的妮可·德布萊斯。

I guess a lot has been covered here, but can we talk a little bit about inventory? I think if you look at the ACT data, just truck inventory at the dealers has begun to tick up a bit. What is PACCAR seeing with respect to inventory in the channel?

我想這裡已經討論了很多，但我們能稍微談談庫存嗎？我認為，如果你看一下ACT的數據，你會發現經銷商的卡車庫存已經開始略有上升。 PACCAR對通路庫存有何看法？

Yes. I mean, inventory is still at pretty low levels. If you look at, it was like 2.3 months of retail sales in March compared to 1.9 a year ago. And for PACCAR, we're less than that slightly. So there's still not a lot of inventory sitting out there, and it's really just about the ability to get the trucks from production into the customers' hands as quickly as we can.

是的。我的意思是，庫存水準仍然很低。你看，3月的零售額相當於2.3個月的銷售量，而去年同期只有1.9個月。 PACCAR的銷售量甚至比這還要低。所以目前市面上的庫存仍然不多，關鍵在於我們能否盡快將卡車從生產線送到顧客手中。

Okay, understood. And just a follow-up on the discussion around supply chain. So I guess like -- I know you guys are embedding a little bit of an improvement as the year goes on. What did you see in the first quarter? I mean, there's a lot of noise with respect to geopolitical risk. Like, did supply chain get more challenging? Or is it kind of more of the same that you've been seeing for the past several quarters?

好的，明白了。關於供應鏈的討論，我想再補充一點。我知道你們正在努力改進，隨著時間的推移，情況有所改善。那麼，你們第一季的情況如何呢？我知道現在地緣政治風險方面有很多不確定因素。供應鏈的挑戰是否增加了？還是跟過去幾季的情況差不多？

I think that what we've seen is that maybe we've gotten through some of the earliest semiconductor issues, and those have not become the most dominant side of it. So other little issues come up now.

我認為我們看到的是，我們或許已經克服了一些早期半導體領域的問題，這些問題並沒有成為最主要的部分。所以現在出現了一些其他的小問題。

They could be labor related. They could be geopolitically related. They could be shipping related. And -- so some of them are temporary. And I think that what's going on now is we have really strong communication between us and our supply base. And so our ability to manage that is maybe improving. And we hope, overall, the situation is improving, which is leading us to see that we think we can deliver some more trucks in the second quarter and on out.

這些因素可能與勞工問題有關，可能與地緣政治有關，也可能與運輸有關。所以，其中一些問題是暫時的。我認為目前的情況是，我們與供應商之間保持著非常有效的溝通。因此，我們應對這些問題的能力可能正在提高。我們希望整體情況正在好轉，這讓我們相信，我們可以在第二季及以後交付更多卡車。

Your next question will come from the line of Robert Wertheimer with Melius Research.

你的下一個問題將來自 Melius Research 的 Robert Wertheimer。

Harrie, I'm sorry -- the results were great. I'm sorry to ask a couple of accounting questions in the midst of that. But I noted you switched from LIFO to FIFO for U.S. inventory accounting. When I read that I assumed that was just to be more comparable European/global peers. I wonder if you had any other thought process around that. And I wonder will it have any material sort of cash tax impact?

哈里，真不好意思——結果很棒。很抱歉在這個節骨眼問幾個會計問題。我注意到你把美國庫存會計方法從後進先出法（LIFO）改成了先進先出法（FIFO）。我看到的時候以為這只是為了和歐洲/全球同行更具可比性。我想知道你還有沒有其他考慮。另外，這會對現金稅產生什麼實質的影響嗎？

This is Michael, Rob. That's one of the reasons why we switched to become more comparable with the European peers who use IFRS and don't have LIFO. We also wanted to have better matching of our revenues and costs as inflation creeps up, you end up accelerating cost realization when you honor LIFO, which we don't think provides very good matching. For years, LIFO has been fairly benign and not much of an impact. And with the inflation creeping up the way that it is, it's become more of a thing and distorts the numbers unnecessarily. So better comparability, better revenue recognition, we thought it was the right thing to do at this time.

我是邁克爾，羅布。我們改用國際財務報告準則（IFRS）是為了與採用非後進先出法（LIFO）的歐洲同行更具可比性，這也是我們做出這項改變的原因之一。此外，隨著通貨膨脹的加劇，我們也希望能更好地匹配收入和成本。如果採用LIFO，成本確認速度會加快，而我們認為LIFO並不能很好地匹配收入和成本。多年來，LIFO的影響相對較小，並不顯著。但隨著通膨的加劇，LIFO的影響越來越大，並會不必要地扭曲財務數據。因此，為了提高可比較性，更準確地確認收入，我們認為現在改用LIFO是正確的選擇。

And is there any cash tax impact that we should care about? And then I have one more question from me.

那麼，現金稅收方面是否有任何值得我們關注的影響？我還有一個問題。

Yes, we're going to -- our LIFO reserve is about $200 million. We're going to end up paying about $50 million in taxes, which is -- we're happy to do.

是的，我們的後進先出儲備金約為2億美元。我們最終將繳納約5000萬美元的稅款，我們很樂意這樣做。

Okay. Perfect. And then on the final subs to your questions and answers earlier, I'm not quite sure if it works this way, but as trucks come off lease, I mean, do you make more of a profit just because you own them and you sell them into a strong market? Or was that a material impact this quarter or for the year? And I will stop there.

好的，沒問題。關於您之前提問和回答的最後幾個問題，我不太確定是不是這樣，但卡車租賃到期後，我的意思是，僅僅因為您擁有了這些卡車，並且在市場行情好的時候出售，就能獲得更高的利潤嗎？或者說，這是否對本季或全年的業績產生了實質的影響？我就說到這裡吧。

Yes. Of course, the trucks that come off lease that are our trucks, that's a good business for us right now. Those trucks come back in a very favorable market for used trucks, and that's definitely a good thing for the finance company.

是的。當然，我們公司那些租賃到期的卡車，現在對我們來說是一筆不錯的生意。當這些卡車回到二手車市場時，市場行情非常好，對金融公司來說絕對是件好事。

Your next question will come from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題將來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

I wonder if you could just talk about the supply base for you folks in Europe. A couple of your competitors had down days because of supply base issues from Eastern Europe in the quarter. And doesn't look like you folks had any issues. Is that a function of you folks using multiple suppliers or a different supply base? Can you just talk about how nimble you folks had to be in the quarter in flexing, if at all, given the geopolitical issues?

我想請你們談談你們在歐洲的供應鏈狀況。你們的一些競爭對手在本季因為東歐的供應鏈問題而出現了停工。而你們似乎沒有遇到任何問題。這是因為你們使用了多個供應商，還是因為你們的供應鏈與競爭對手不同？鑑於地緣政治局勢，你們在本季是否需要靈活調整供應鏈，以及調整幅度如何？

Well, we've noted the same thing with them. We just haven't been affected that way. We've had good supplier ability to provide us the parts we need in Europe and we've looked out into the future and tried to forecast where that might be, and we'll have to watch and see how it is. But right now, there's nothing that's showing us that we aren't going to get the parts. And we continue to work closely with all the suppliers that have facilities in Eastern Europe to make sure that we're on top of it.

嗯，我們也注意到了同樣的情況。只是我們自身沒有受到影響。我們在歐洲的供應商一直能夠很好地為我們提供所需的零件，我們也展望未來，嘗試預測未來可能出現的情況，但最終結果如何，我們還需要密切關注。目前，沒有任何跡象表明我們無法獲得所需的零件。我們將繼續與所有在東歐設有工廠的供應商保持密切合作，確保一切順利進行。

Yes. We're one of the few truck manufacturers that doesn't have a factory in Russia. And so our exposure to Russia and the Ukraine has been a lot less than what you may have seen somewhere else.

是的。我們是少數幾家在俄羅斯沒有工廠的卡車製造商之一。因此，我們與俄羅斯和烏克蘭的業務往來遠比其他地方少得多。

And Harrie, earlier, you mentioned the strength of the business in Europe. I'm wondering if you could just expand on that. Did bookings exceed shipments in the quarter? Can you comment on that?

哈里，你之前提到了歐洲業務的強勁表現。我想請你詳細說說。本季的預訂量是否超過了出貨量？能談談這方面的情況嗎？

Yes. Order bookings, I think it's, again, the same approach in North America, as we've seen in Europe. The amount is very, very strong, and we manage order bookings a little bit with lead times. And we see there are some inflation and cost increases, and we want to manage that just very carefully. So I think in today's environment, we could easily get more order bookings than we need but it's a function of, well, filling the backlog with strong business and not getting exposed out to 2023, where we don't know exactly what costs are going to be.

是的。訂單預訂方面，我認為北美和歐洲的做法是一樣的。訂單量非常強勁，我們會透過提前期來控制訂單預訂。我們也注意到通貨膨脹和成本上漲，所以我們會非常謹慎地應對。因此，我認為在目前的市場環境下，我們很容易獲得超出實際需求的訂單，但關鍵在於，我們要用強勁的業務來填補積壓訂單，同時避免將業務拓展到2023年，因為我們無法準確預測屆時的成本。

And I would add that it really -- it's hard to appreciate how phenomenal the new DAF truck is. I mean it's the only truck that meets all the new masses and dimensions regulations. It's providing a 10% better fuel efficiency, so several thousand dollars a year per truck in operating cost advantage. It's a truck that meets the upcoming new Direct Vision requirements in Europe. It's really a game changing product. and it's got a lot more proprietary content on it and the drivers love it. So there's a lot of reasons that we see strong demand for that, for our European market right now.

我還要補充一點，新款DAF卡車真的——很難用語言來形容它有多出色。我的意思是，它是唯一一款符合所有新的品質和尺寸規定的卡車。它的燃油效率提高了10%，這意味著每輛卡車每年可以節省數千美元的營運成本。這款卡車符合歐洲即將實施的全新直接視野要求。它真是一款顛覆性的產品。它擁有許多專有技術，而且深受駕駛員喜愛。因此，我們有許多理由相信，目前歐洲市場對這款卡車的需求非常強勁。

Okay. Super. And lastly, I'm wondering if you can just comment about the evolution of demand for your electric vehicles. How has that evolved over the past quarter or 2? And where are you folks expecting to ship them geographically? Is it still predominantly in Europe where you're seeing demand?

好的，太好了。最後，我想請您談談貴公司電動車的需求變化。過去一、兩個季度以來，需求變化如何？貴公司預計電動車的出口區域有哪些？目前需求是否仍主要集中在歐洲？

Sure. We are seeing increasing order intake for those vehicles. I think we talked even a year ago when we said we start in the 10s and grow to the 100s and then get to the 1,000s. And this year already, we expect that we'll deliver in the hundreds of vehicles and take lots more orders than that for the vehicles. We're having customers putting them into service and seeing how they work out for them 5 or 10 at a time, typically, and then enjoying the benefits of what PACCAR quality looks like in a zero emissions vehicle. So we kind of see that as a growing opportunity, and we continue to refine our technology on those vehicles, feel like we want to stay at the leading edge of technology. And it's nice to be actually delivering zero-emissions vehicles to our customers.

當然。我們看到這些車輛的訂單量正在不斷增加。我記得一年前我們就說過，訂單量會從幾十輛開始，然後成長到幾百輛，最後達到幾千輛。而今年，我們預計交貨量將達到數百輛，訂單量將遠超這個數字。我們的客戶通常會一次訂購5到10輛，進行試駕，體驗這些車輛的性能，並享有PACCAR零排放車輛帶來的卓越品質。因此，我們認為這是一個不斷增長的機遇，我們也將繼續改進這些車輛的技術，力求保持技術領先地位。能夠真正將零排放車輛交付給客戶，我們感到非常欣慰。

Your next question will come from the line of Chad Dillard with Bernstein.

你的下一個問題將來自查德·迪拉德和伯恩斯坦的對話。

How much room do you have to raise price on parts? And can you just talk a little bit more about just your philosophy on pricing? I mean, are you guys -- can you potentially raise price to cover, let's say, like airfreight, for example?

你們在零件價格方面還有多少漲價空間？能否再詳細談談你們的定價理念？我的意思是，你們是否有可能透過提價來彌補像是空運成本之類的費用？

And then maybe you can break down the outperformance of the other parts business. I mean how much is coming from just better growth on the agent side versus rest of truck. And then lastly, Harrie, if you could just clarify your comment about parts' demand being similar in 2Q versus 1Q? Are you talking about dollar-wise or percent growth year-on-year?

然後，或許您可以分析一下其他零件業務的優異表現。我的意思是，其中有多少成長僅僅是由於代理商方面的成長優於其他卡車業務？最後，哈里，您能否澄清一下您關於第二季度和第一季零件需求相似的說法？您指的是金額上的相似還是同比百分比上的相似？

Well, I mean, obviously, it's a competitive market out there. We've done -- our team has done a really good job of increasing the prices as costs have gone up, and we've had some good realization over the few quarters here. Largely it's driven by the need for these parts and the fact that we are connected with the customers more and more, right? Trucks are getting complicated. We have sophisticated customers and the interaction between PACCAR, our dealers and our customers is a real contributor to growth as well as more proprietary content like engines, like our PACCAR transmissions, PACCAR axles. All of this is just helping us flow through a connected position to our customers. So that will continue, and that's great for the future.

嗯，我的意思是，很顯然，市場競爭非常激烈。隨著成本上漲，我們的團隊在漲價方面做得非常出色，而且在過去的幾個季度裡，我們也取得了不錯的收益。這主要是由於市場對這些零件的需求，以及我們與客戶之間日益緊密的聯繫。卡車變得越來越複雜。我們的客戶也越來越專業，PACCAR、我們的經銷商和客戶之間的互動，以及更多專有產品（例如引擎、PACCAR變速箱和PACCAR車橋）的研發，都是推動成長的重要因素。所有這些都有助於我們與客戶建立更緊密的聯繫。這種趨勢將會持續下去，這對未來發展大有裨益。

And can you just clarify the Parts' guidance commentary you're talking about dollar-wise versus percent-wise growth? And then just a separate question, just on just how you guys are thinking about how much pent-up demand there is in the industry today?

您能否澄清一下您提到的零件業務指引評論中，是指以美元計的成長還是以百分比計的成長？另外還有一個問題，您如何看待目前產業內存在的潛在需求？

To go back to the Parts' comment, the Parts' comment was on revenues. We expect Parts' revenue in the second quarter to be similar to or revenue in the first quarter. Parts' pricing has been strong.

回到先前關於零件的評論，該評論主要針對營收。我們預計零件第二季的營收將與第一季持平。零件的定價一直很強勁。

Just go back to the first quarter, first quarter pricing was slightly over 10% up compared to the first quarter of 2021. So that just shows you that it's an environment where cost increases are translated into price increases as well. And the second question you had was?

回顧第一季度，第一季的價格比2021年第一季上漲了略高於10%。這說明，在當前環境下，成本上漲也會轉化為價格上漲。你的第二個問題是？

Just how to think about just how much pent-up demand there is either in the industry or if you can talk about PACCAR more specifically?

如何看待整個產業或更具體地談談 PACCAR 公司目前存在的巨大潛在需求？

Sure. I'll take that one and just kind of -- think of it this way that we've just come through a couple of years where we've not been able to build the number of trucks we need as an industry. We've had really strong freight volumes. People are running their trucks out there, putting miles on them. They have an operating model, which says they either want their fleet age to be 2 years or 3 years or whatever it is. And they've exceeded that by 10% or 15%. And they're probably not going to adjust that business model, which is successful for them. So they're going to want to draw down that age of fleet as they can, and that's going to take some time. As the supply base remains constrained, we expect to see these improvements in our deliveries, but they're not going to be just for a quarter. We expect to see this to be a good period of time for PACCAR in the industry.

當然。我會接受這個觀點，你可以這樣理解：過去幾年，我們整個產業都無法生產足夠的卡車。貨運量一直非常強勁。大家都在開著卡車到處跑，里程數也很高。他們的營運模式是，車隊車齡要控制在2年或3年左右。而他們目前的車齡已經超過這個目標了10%到15%。他們可能不會調整這種對他們來說行之有效的商業模式。所以，他們會盡可能降低車隊的車齡，但這需要一些時間。由於供應基礎仍然受限，我們預計交付量會有所改善，但這不會只持續一個季度。我們預計這將是PACCAR在業界表現良好的時期。

Your next question will come from the line of Ross Gilardi with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的羅斯·吉拉迪。

I'm not sure if you guys replied to this -- a similar question earlier. But what do you make of the erosion in spot rates? And clearly, PACCAR is very positive. But why isn't that an indication that excess capacity is creeping into the freight markets and the demand is ultimately softening? And why would orders reaccelerate in 2023 as spot rates are falling?

我不確定你們之前有沒有回覆過類似的問題。你們如何看待現貨運價的下跌？顯然，PACCAR 非常樂觀。但這難道不預示著貨運市場產能過剩，需求最終會放緩嗎？而且，隨著現貨運價的下跌，為什麼 2023 年的訂單量反而會再次加速成長？

Yes. Sure, Ross. I mean, I think that it's a fair question. If you think of spot rates, they're really the fringe of the business. They're not the foundation of the business. And so I think people may want to use them as a leading indicator, but they shouldn't think of them as systemically covering what freight is doing out there. And so since there is strong business out there, even if spot rates decline a little bit, they're still present and the fixed contracts are still really strong. So as long as that continues, it bodes well for the market.

是的，羅斯。我的意思是，我覺得這個問題問得好。如果你考慮即期運價，它們其實只是貨運業務的邊緣部分，並非業務的基石。所以我認為人們可能會把它們當作一個先行指標，但不應該認為它們能係統性地反映貨運市場的整體情況。由於貨運市場依然強勁，即使即期運價略有下降，貨運業務仍然存在，而且固定合約依然非常穩固。只要這種情況持續下去，對市場來說就是個好兆頭。

Okay. Got it. And then I haven't asked you a consolidation question in a while. And clearly, PACCAR has gone on it organically, very successfully for a very, very long time. But -- just was curious on your general view. I mean, do you see a heightened need for increased consolidation in the commercial vehicle space in light of all the inflationary pressures, just need for perhaps greater localization supply chain for just greater overall scale? And do you think regulators would allow a combination of any of the top 6 or 7 -- I mean some of the European names have really been bruised and battered in the aftermath of Russia and so forth, and you could -- could PACCAR potentially play a role as an industry consolidator in the next couple of years?

好的，明白了。我好久沒問你關於整合的問題了。顯然，PACCAR長期以來一直穩步推進整合，而且非常成功。不過，我只是好奇你對整合的整體看法。我的意思是，鑑於當前的通膨壓力，你是否認為商用車領域需要加強整合？是否需要更本地化的供應鏈來擴大規模？你認為監理機關會允許前六、七家公司合併嗎？我的意思是，一些歐洲公司在俄羅斯事件等之後確實遭受了重創，PACCAR是否有可能在未來幾年扮演產業整合者的角色？

Well, it's funny that you haven't asked that question a while. I would simply say the way we look at it is the business is doing fantastic. PACCAR continues to grow. We expect to keep growing, and we always are looking around the world for the best things for our shareholders. And I think that's as much as we can say right now.

嗯，你這麼久都沒問這個問題，真是有趣。我只想說，我們目前的看法是，公司業務發展非常出色。帕卡集團持續成長，我們預計未來還會繼續成長，而且我們始終在全球範圍內尋找對股東最有利的機會。我想，目前我們只能說這麼多了。

Your next question will come from the line of Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research.

你的下一個問題將來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Kauffman。

Congratulations. Just a quick question on timing and then another one on numbers. You reiterated the R&D range for the year, but R&D came in, I think, a lot lower than that trend this quarter. I am assuming that's just a timing issue, but could you talk a little bit about that?

恭喜！我有一個關於時間安排和數字的小問題。您重申了全年的研發支出範圍，但我認為本季的研發支出遠低於預期。我猜這只是時間安排上的問題，可以詳細解釋一下嗎？

Sure. I think you nailed it. It's a timing issue in the year. So we still hold that $350 million to $400 million in the full year with $78 million in the in the first quarter. So it's a run rate for new technologies, some pretty fun projects that we have that we're spinning up that will help us in the future.

當然。我覺得你說得對。這是年內的時間安排問題。所以我們仍然預計全年能達到3.5億到4億美元，其中第一季為7800萬美元。這是新技術研發的預期目標，我們正在啟動一些非常有趣的項目，這些項目將在未來對我們有所幫助。

Okay. So just for modeling, should we think of that more as a back half a year impact as we catch up?

好的。那麼就建模而言，我們是否應該將其更多地視為過去半年來我們追趕進度時的影響？

Pretty gradual increase during the year, I would model.

我認為，這一年的成長速度會相當緩慢。

Okay. And then a lot of detail on new unit sales. But I know you've had a couple of questions about this. What do used unit sales look like on a year-on-year basis?

好的。接下來會詳細介紹新車銷售狀況。但我知道你們已經有一些關於這方面的問題了。二手車銷售情況逐年變動如何？

I mean, as a general sense, you can say that they've declined, right? We had -- about a year ago, we were coming into the strong used truck market. So there was used inventory out there. And obviously, now with the strong freight demand, people are holding on to those units. So they're just not coming into the inventory of our dealers or our used truck centers. So it's at a lower level. And that's likely to continue for a while. So as far as a specific number to think of it in terms of months and still think of it as less than 2 months of inventory out there.

我的意思是，總的來說，可以說二手卡車的需求量下降了，對吧？大約一年前，我們剛進入強勁的二手卡車市場。當時市場上有很多二手卡車庫存。但顯然，現在貨運需求旺盛，人們都把這些車囤起來了。所以，這些車並沒有進入我們經銷商或二手卡車中心的庫存。因此，庫存水準下降了。這種情況可能會持續一段時間。所以，如果要用具體數字來衡量，以月為單位，目前的庫存量仍然不到兩個月。

All right. And that's consistent with the commentary you made about 2Q, 3Q. So any benefit that we're seeing on used vehicle impact to Financial Services is entirely used vehicle price at this point, correct?

好的。這和你之前對第二季、第三季的評論一致。所以，目前我們看到的二手車市場對金融服務業的任何利好都完全是二手車價格上漲帶來的，對嗎？

That's probably the biggest variable in that profit number, yes.

是的，這可能是影響利潤數字的最大變數。

Your next question will come from the line of Felix Boeschen with Raymond James.

你的下一個問題將來自 Felix Boeschen 與 Raymond James 的合作系列。

Preston, I just have one. You mentioned earlier in the call, average truck age is up 10% to 15%. Can you clarify that comment a little bit? Is that a North American number, a year-over-year number?

普雷斯頓，我還有一個問題。你之前在電話會議中提到，卡車的平均車齡增加了10%到15%。你能解釋一下這個說法嗎？這是北美地區的數據，還是年比數據？

And I'm really curious, just big picture versus different cycles, say, going back a couple of years, maybe industrial recession levels. How has the average age of the North American fleet changed over time versus where it is today?

我真的很好奇，從宏觀角度來看，與不同的週期相比，例如回到幾年前的工業衰退時期，北美船隊的平均船齡隨著時間的推移發生了怎樣的變化，與現在相比又如何？

Yes. I would think of it, if you're saying macroscopic, I would think of it in terms of each year is its own circumstance and that the model can be disrupted by any number of factors. But I don't think that the general expectation of the fleet is changing much. They want to maintain a fleet ages of certain level. And when they get beyond that, then they want to replace it. Obviously, there's slight nuances to cycle timing, but their freight volume is strong. And the easiest way for -- as we think about it, as their freight volume is strong and they look at the opportunity of owning the great new Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF trucks and the fact that those are going to yield thousands of dollars per unit in savings, we see no reason that won't continue. Nuances beyond that seem less significant.

是的。如果你指的是宏觀層面，我會認為每年的情況都不一樣，而且這個模式可能會受到各種因素的影響。但我認為車隊的整體預期並沒有太大變化。他們希望車隊的車齡保持在一定水準。一旦超過這個水平，他們就會考慮更換車輛。當然，更換週期的時間安排會有一些細微差別，但他們的貨運量很強勁。我們認為，鑑於他們的貨運量強勁，而且他們看到了擁有新款肯沃斯、彼得比爾特和達夫卡車的機會，以及這些卡車每輛車能節省數千美元的成本，我們認為這種趨勢沒有理由會停止。除此之外的其他細微差別似乎沒那麼重要。

And I would say that's more or less around the globe. We -- every market of us had COVID related shutdowns and underproduction in 2020. We -- every market had chip shortages in 2021. So we underproduced customer demand for almost 2 years or a big chunk of those 2 years. And yes, that means there's a lot of pent demand that we're trying to recover now, but it's probably going to -- it's going to take longer than just this year before we get there.

而且我認為這種情況在全球範圍內都差不多。 2020年，我們所有市場都經歷了與新冠疫情相關的停工和產能不足。 2021年，我們所有市場都出現了晶片短缺。因此，我們近兩年，或者說這兩年中的大部分時間，產能都無法滿足客戶需求。沒錯，這意味著我們現在正在努力恢復大量積壓的需求，但這可能需要比今年更長的時間才能實現。

Your next question will come from the line of Courtney Yakavonis with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Courtney Yakavonis。

So I guess I just wanted to first just get a check on the quarter. Obviously, you guys came in smack in the middle of your delivery guidance, but I think Europe was a little higher than we were expecting. U.S. was -- North America was a little bit lower.

所以我想先了解本季的業績。顯然，你們的交付量正好達到預期，但我認為歐洲的交付量略高於我們的預期。美國——北美地區的交付量則略低於預期。

So just wanted to get how it came in versus your expectation on a geographic level. I think you mentioned that you're expecting shipments to increase for all geographies heading into next quarter. And then just more broadly on the industry outlook, it sounds like supply chain issues are getting a little bit better. So very positive about end market demand. So you raised the low end of your guidance for the industry, but just curious why there was no adjustment to the top end.

所以我想了解一下，從地理層面來看，實際結果與您預期相比如何。我記得您提到過，預計下個季度所有地區的出貨量都會成長。而且，就整個產業的展望而言，供應鏈問題似乎正在改善。因此，您對終端市場需求非常樂觀。您提高了行業預期下限，但我很好奇為什麼沒有調整上限。

Sure. As we looked at the segment deliveries, geographic deliveries, I would say that North America, we just saw that we had in the medium-duty market, actually some impact to the supply base there, which kind of constrained North American medium-duty deliveries and that was probably what weighed in the first quarter. And hope we'll see some reconciliation there in the second quarter of that. And I'd say from an industry standpoint, our guidance is just we tightened it up a little bit and we tightened it up to move the midpoint up because the market still feels really strong to us. So in that view is where we saw ourselves sitting.

當然。當我們查看各細分市場和地區的交付量時，我發現北美地區的中型卡車市場確實受到了一些影響，這在一定程度上限制了北美地區的中型卡車交付量，這可能是第一季業績下滑的主要原因。我們希望第二季情況能夠有所改善。從產業角度來看，我們略微收緊了業績指引，並將中點數值上調，因為我們仍然認為市場非常強勁。以上就是我們對自身業績的預期。

Okay. Great. And then you made some comments earlier just about the positive mix improvement as new trucks become a higher percentage of the build. And I think you gave us some color on how that mix should improve through the year. But can you just help us understand what the margin differential is between that new product line in North America and Europe versus last year's? And how big of a gap is it mostly just in pricing? Or is the cost structure significantly better?

好的，太好了。您之前提到過，隨著新卡車在總產量中所佔比例的提高，產品組合將出現積極的改善。您也大致闡述了這種組合在今年將如何進一步提升。但是，您能否幫我們了解一下，北美和歐洲的新產品線與去年相比，利潤率差異有多大？這種差異主要體現在價格上嗎？還是成本結構也顯著改善了？

Yes, the margin opportunity for the new models is, of course, excellent. The 7% fuel economy improvement we saw for the Kenworth and Peterbilt trucks. That just puts them best-in-class in the industry in terms of fuel efficiency, with the new DAF with a 10% fuel economy improvement. That's class leading in Europe. And being able to create so much value for our customers, that's, of course, also going to be a good thing for PACCAR.

是的，新車型的利潤空間當然非常可觀。肯沃斯和彼得比爾特卡車的燃油經濟性提升了7%，這使它們在燃油效率方面成為業內領先者；而新款達夫卡車的燃油經濟性提升更是達到了10%，在歐洲市場也處於領先地位。能夠為我們的客戶創造如此巨大的價值，對帕卡集團來說當然也是一件好事。

And the only add to what I'd give is if these trucks are not just good for their pocketbook, but their drivers, which is such a key element of their business right now. There's no truck they'd rather be in than the new DAF, the new Peterbilt, the new Kenworth.

我唯一要補充的是，如果這些卡車不僅能為他們省錢，還能讓他們的司機受益（這可是他們目前業務的關鍵所在），那就更好了。他們最想開的卡車就是新款的DAF、Peterbilt和Kenworth。

I was at a truck stop a week ago and at the fuel isle I was talking to somebody who had a new PACCAR product and they were just beside themselves with the way this truck looks and drives down the road. So I think it's important to realize that the drivers have a big play here and PACCAR products are where people want to be.

一週前我在一個卡車休息站，在加油區跟一位剛買了一輛PACCAR新車的司機聊了起來。他對這輛卡車的外觀和駕駛性能讚不絕口。所以我覺得，我們必須意識到，司機們在這裡扮演著重要的角色，而PACCAR的產品正是他們夢寐以求的。

I guess my question was more in relation to your cost structure as opposed to the customers.

我想問的更多是關於你們的成本結構，而不是關於客戶的問題。

Sure. Understood. And when we make investments and big capital investments, we do it to be more efficient and we strive for that. So -- yes, there's some of that in there as well.

當然，明白了。我們進行投資，尤其是大型資本投資時，都是為了提高效率，我們也一直在努力實現這一點。所以——是的，這其中也包含一些因素。

Your next question will come from the line of Matt Elkott with Cowen.

你的下一個問題將來自考恩公司的馬特·埃爾科特。

Could you guys update us on your view on a possible 2023 pre-buy and how material it could be? And if you couple that with your view that orders could accelerate, again, are we looking at another solid delivery growth year in North America in 2023?

各位能否更新一下你們對2023年可能出現的預購潮的看法，以及它的影響程度？如果再加上你們認為訂單可能會加速成長的觀點，那麼我們是否可以預期2023年北美地區的交付量將再次穩健成長？

Well, I would say -- let me take the back half of your question. So -- yes, we think 2023 could be a good year. It's pretty far out, but we think it could be a really good year. As far as comments on pre-buy, we think that conversation is overdone. I think that there's a lot of great new products in the market out there. There's not a substantial change going into the general U.S. market in terms of technologies.

嗯，我想說——讓我來回答您問題的後半部分。是的，我們認為2023年可能會是個好年。雖然時間還很遙遠，但我們相信它會是非常棒的一年。至於關於預購的評論，我們認為這個主題已經討論過度了。我認為市場上有很多很棒的新產品。就技術而言，美國整體市場並沒有實質的變化。

There will be some improvements in CO2 reductions or fuel economy again, which can cause some people to want to buy earlier, some people don't want to wait for those improvements. So I think that it's really mostly California impact in terms of what might happen in terms of real tech change. So I wouldn't overweight that in my thoughts of 2023.

二氧化碳減排或燃油經濟性方面會有一些改進，這可能會讓一些人想提前購買，而其他人則不想等待這些改進。所以我認為，就實際的技術變革而言，加州的影響可能更大。因此，在我對2023年的展望中，我不會過度強調這一點。

Okay. That's helpful. And Preston, can you maybe provide some more insight on how manufacturing lead times for Class 8 trucks have changed over the last few quarters? And where they are for orders placed today? And could longer lead times be contributing to the moderation in orders?

好的，這很有幫助。普雷斯頓，您能否進一步分析過去幾季8級卡車的生產週期變化？以及目前訂單的生產週期狀況？生產週期延長是否會導致訂單量下降？

Well, what I would think of it as is we have a strong order backlog to substantially full. So if you place an order for a truck today, you might be able to get it in the fourth quarter. but it's starting to slide out and that's why the orders have been limited is because we're not ready to open up fully the 2023 order board because of the uncertainties of what the parts supply is going to be and the cost structure is going to be. And so that's how we look at it.

嗯，我的看法是，我們目前訂單積壓嚴重，幾乎已經飽和。所以，如果您今天訂購一輛卡車，可能要到第四季度才能拿到。但交貨時間已經開始推遲，這也是我們限制訂單的原因：由於零件供應和成本結構存在不確定性，我們還沒有準備好全面開放2023年的訂單。這就是我們的看法。

Got it. So the order moderation could be related to 2023 book not being opened yet and not necessarily a function of underlying demand for trucks.

明白了。所以訂單量放緩可能與2023年的訂單尚未開始預訂有關，而不一定反映出卡車的實際需求。

You're absolutely right that, in fact, is what's happening.

你說得完全正確，事實的確如此。

Your final question in queue is a follow-up from David Raso with Evercore ISI.

隊列中的最後一個問題是來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso 的後續問題。

Just wanted some clarification on the sequential build in Europe. I mean, even if they're just flat, that's up 37% year-over-year. And I'm just trying to understand, it's not necessarily a terribly easy comp that's driving it. Is this that much share gain from the new truck? Is it an understanding that dealers want a little pipeline fill if available? I'm just trying to understand the magnitude of the growth in Europe we just saw and the implied for 2Q?

我想了解一下歐洲的環比產量情況。我的意思是，即使產量持平，也比去年同期成長了37%。我只是想弄清楚，這並非簡單的同比數據就能解釋的。新卡車的推出是否帶來瞭如此大的市場份額成長？經銷商是否希望在庫存充足的情況下盡可能多地補充庫存？我只是想了解我們剛剛看到的歐洲市場成長幅度，以及它對第二季的預期。

Harrie?

哈里？

No, the demand for the new truck has been excellent. And I would say that also in Europe, DAF is doing an excellent job building as many trucks as we can. So build rates continue to go up. And even with the lower number of working days in the second quarter, we expect that second quarter production would be the same or slightly up.

不，這款新卡車的需求一直非常旺盛。而且我認為，在歐洲，DAF也在盡力生產卡車，做得非常好。因此，生產速度持續提升。即使第二季的工作日較少，我們預計第二季的產量仍將與上季持平或略有成長。

From 1Q? Okay.

從第一季開始？好的。

From Q1.

來自 Q1。

From Q1, exactly. And year-over-year, that's up 37-plus percent year-over-year. So -- just wanted to clarify that. And lastly, June 1, the upcoming meeting, anything you want to provide for us in this platform to mull over as we think about the main takeaways we should be getting out of that meeting?

沒錯，就是從第一季開始。而且較去年同期成長超過37%。所以——我只是想澄清一下。最後，關於6月1日即將召開的會議，您有什麼想在這個平台上分享的，讓我們思考會議的主要內容嗎？

Well, we look forward to seeing you in person. That's going to be fun. And I think it's going to be a little bit more information about how the business is doing, what the future looks like for us and the strength of PACCAR going forward and how that's going to just accelerate. So we look forward to seeing everybody there.

我們期待與您見面。那一定會很有趣。我想屆時我們會詳細介紹公司的營運狀況、未來的發展前景以及帕卡集團未來的實力和發展加速計畫。我們期待與大家見面。

There are no other questions in queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有其他補充說明嗎？

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call, and thank you, operator.

感謝各位參與通話，也謝謝接線生。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，PACCAR的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您可以斷開連線了。