帕卡 (PCAR) 2019 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's First Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2019 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作說明）

Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time.

今天的通話正在錄音，如有異議，請立即掛斷電話。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我謹向大家介紹 PACCAR 的投資者關係總監 Ken Hastings 先生。哈斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast.

早安.我們歡迎透過電話收聽的聽眾和透過網路直播收聽的聽眾。

My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Ron Armstrong, Chief Executive Officer; Preston Feight, Executive Vice President; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller.

我是肯‧黑斯廷斯，PACCAR公司的投資人關係總監。今天早上和我一起出席的有：執行長 Ron Armstrong；執行副總裁 Preston Feight；總裁兼財務長 Harrie Schippers；以及高級副總裁兼財務總監 Michael Barkley。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results. A summary of risks and uncertainties is described in more detail in our periodic reports filed with the SEC. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the Investor Relations page of paccar.com.

與以往的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有參與電話會議的媒體成員以只聽模式參與。今天公佈的某些資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的總體經濟和競爭狀況。風險和不確定性概述已在提交給美國證券交易委員會的定期報告中進行了更詳細的描述。如需了解更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及 paccar.com 的投資者關係頁面。

I would now like to introduce Ron Armstrong.

現在我來介紹羅恩·阿姆斯特朗。

Good morning. Preston Feight, Harrie Schippers and I will update you on PACCAR's excellent first quarter results and business highlights.

早安.Preston Feight、Harrie Schippers 和我將向大家介紹 PACCAR 出色的第一季業績和業務亮點。

PACCAR reported record revenues and net income for the first quarter of 2019. PACCAR's first quarter sales and Financial Services revenues were $6.5 billion, and first quarter net income was $629 million, an excellent 9.7% after-tax return on revenues. Revenues were 15% higher and net income was 23% higher compared to the first quarter last year. PACCAR delivered a record 51,500 trucks during the first quarter. PACCAR Parts achieved record quarterly revenues of $1 billion, an increase of 7% compared to the first quarter last year. Parts pretax profits were also a record at $208 million. I'm very proud of our 28,000 employees who are passionate about delivering the industry's best products and services to our customers and achieving strong results for our shareholders.

PACCAR公佈2019年第一季營收及淨利均創歷史新高。PACCAR 第一季銷售額和金融服務收入為 65 億美元，第一季淨收入為 6.29 億美元，稅後收入回報率高達 9.7%。與去年第一季相比，營收成長了 15%，淨利潤成長了 23%。PACCAR在第一季交付了創紀錄的51500輛卡車。PACCAR Parts 實現了創紀錄的季度收入 10 億美元，比去年第一季成長了 7%。零件業務稅前利潤也創下歷史新高，達到 2.08 億美元。我為我們28,000名員工感到非常自豪，他們充滿熱情地為客戶提供業界最好的產品和服務，並為我們的股東取得豐碩的成果。

PACCAR continues to outperform its peers and provide strong operating cash flow for reinvestment in future growth and distributions to stockholders. One key measure where PACCAR excels is return on invested capital. In the first quarter, PACCAR achieved a return on invested capital of 25%, and over the last 5 years, achieved an annual average return of 22%. PACCAR has delivered annual dividends of approximately 50% of net income for many years and has paid a dividend every year since 1941. PACCAR has increased its quarterly dividend at an average of 11% per year during the last 20 years and raised it another 14% in the first quarter to $0.32 per share. PACCAR repurchased 491,000 of its outstanding shares during the first quarter. The increase in truck production in the first quarter was primarily due to more build days in North America compared to the fourth quarter and good supplier performance.

PACCAR 持續超越同行，並提供強勁的經營現金流，用於未來成長的再投資和向股東分紅。PACCAR 的一項關鍵優勢在於投資資本報酬率。第一季度，PACCAR 的投資資本報酬率為 25%，過去 5 年的年平均報酬率為 22%。PACCAR 多年來每年派發淨收入約 50% 的股息，並且自 1941 年以來每年都派發股息。在過去的 20 年裡，PACCAR 的季度股息平均每年增長 11%，並在第一季又增長了 14%，達到每股 0.32 美元。PACCAR在第一季回購了491,000股流通股。第一季卡車產量增加主要是因為北美地區的生產天數比第四季增加，以及供應商表現良好。

Truck and Parts gross margins were 15% in the first quarter. Truck pricing was good with price realization of 3%. Our Peterbilt, Kenworth and DAF factories and purchasing and supplier management teams did a fantastic job of managing production, delivering a record number of trucks and achieving the highest operating margins in the industry. In the second quarter, we're expecting deliveries to be 2% to 4% higher than the first quarter due to increased production in North America. Truck, Parts and Other gross margins in the second quarter are estimated to be in a range of 14.5% to 15%.

第一季卡車及零件業務的毛利率為 15%。卡車定價良好，價格實現率為 3%。我們的 Peterbilt、Kenworth 和 DAF 工廠以及採購和供應商管理團隊在生產管理方面做得非常出色，交付了創紀錄數量的卡車，並實現了業內最高的營運利潤率。由於北美地區產量增加，我們預計第二季的交付量將比第一季成長 2% 至 4%。第二季卡車、零件及其他業務的毛利率預計在 14.5% 至 15% 之間。

Preston Feight will now provide an update on DAF and PACCAR Parts.

Preston Feight 將帶來 DAF 和 PACCAR Parts 的最新情況介紹。

Thanks, Ron. DAF achieved record market share of 17.1% in the first quarter. European economies and freight transport activity are projected to grow at a moderate pace in 2019. This year should be another good year in the European heavy truck market with registrations in a range of 290,000 to 320,000 trucks.

謝謝你，羅恩。DAF在第一季取得了17.1%的創紀錄市場份額。預計2019年歐洲經濟和貨運活動將以適度速度成長。今年歐洲重型卡車市場應該又會迎來好年景，註冊量預計在 29 萬至 32 萬輛之間。

Turning to PACCAR Parts global results. Parts first quarter revenues were a record and for the first time, reached the $1 billion level. As Ron mentioned, Parts quarterly pretax profit was a record $208 million.

接下來來看看 PACCAR Parts 的全球業績。零件業務第一季營收創歷史新高，首度突破 10 億美元大關。正如 Ron 所提到的，Parts 的季度稅前利潤創下 2.08 億美元的紀錄。

PACCAR has steadily increased its truck and engine market share over the years, resulting in a greater number of PACCAR trucks and engines in operation. This, combined with consistent investments in parts distribution capacity and customer-focused technologies, has created a very strong foundation for growth in PACCAR Parts.

多年來，PACCAR 的卡車和引擎市場份額穩步增長，導致越來越多的 PACCAR 卡車和引擎投入使用。這一點，再加上對零件分銷能力和以客戶為中心的技術的持續投資，為 PACCAR Parts 的發展奠定了非常堅實的基礎。

To support this growth, PACCAR Parts has begun construction of 2 new parts distribution centers: one in Ponta Grossa, Brazil, and the other one is in Las Vegas, Nevada. We expect Parts sales to grow 5% to 8% for the full year 2019.

為了支持這一成長，PACCAR Parts 已開始建造 2 個新的零件配送中心：一個位於巴西蓬塔格羅薩，另一個位於內華達州拉斯維加斯。我們預計 2019 年全年零件銷售額將成長 5% 至 8%。

Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on Kenworth, Peterbilt and PACCAR Financial Services.

哈里希珀斯接下來將介紹肯沃斯、彼得比爾特和帕卡金融服務公司的最新情況。

Thanks, Preston. The U.S. economy and freight tonnage continue to grow this year. A consensus of economists predicts [2.4%] GDP and 2.6% industrial production growth for the full year 2019.

謝謝你，普雷斯頓。今年美國經濟和貨運噸位持續成長。經濟學家普遍預測，2019 年全年 GDP 將成長 2.4%，工業生產將成長 2.6%。

First quarter GDP growth was a strong 3.2%. Freight tonnage increased 3.8% in the first quarter compared to a year earlier. This provides a healthy backdrop for the 2019 truck market. First quarter 2019 U.S. and Canada Class 8 truck industry retail sales increased 23% compared to the same period last year. We have increased the midpoint of the U.S. and Canada Class 8 truck market projection to over 300,000 units due to the strong industry backlog.

第一季GDP成長強勁，達3.2%。第一季貨運噸位比上年同期成長3.8%。這為2019年卡車市場提供了良好的發展環境。2019 年第一季美國和加拿大 8 級卡車產業零售額比去年同期成長了 23%。由於產業積壓訂單充足，我們將美國和加拿大 8 級卡車市場預測的中點值提高到 30 萬輛以上。

PACCAR Financial Services pretax income was $84 million in the first quarter, an increase of 24% compared to a year earlier. First quarter revenues were $350 million. PACCAR Financial Services assets increased to a record $14.9 billion, with the portfolio performing well.

PACCAR金融服務公司第一季稅前收入為8,400萬美元，較上年同期成長24%。第一季營收為3.5億美元。PACCAR金融服務公司的資產增加至創紀錄的149億美元，其投資組合表現良好。

Kenworth and Peterbilt Class 8 used truck values increased again in the first quarter compared to the same period last year. Kenworth and Peterbilt truck resale values command a 10% to 20% premium over competitors' vehicles. In 2019, we're increasing capital investments to $625 million to $675 million and R&D expenses to $320 million to $340 million.

今年第一季度，肯沃斯和彼得比爾特8級二手卡車的價格與去年同期相比再次上漲。Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 卡車的轉售價格比競爭對手的車輛高出 10% 到 20%。2019年，我們將資本投資增加到6.25億美元至6.75億美元，研發支出增加到3.2億美元至3.4億美元。

We're investing in new products and expanded facilities while increasing our funding for alternative powertrain development. As we mentioned in the press release, DAF has recently introduced electric and hybrid vehicles that are undergoing field testing throughout Europe. Peterbilt and Kenworth are also working on hydrogen fuel cell, hybrid and electric powertrains as well as autonomous vehicle technology in collaboration with our Silicon Valley Innovation Center.

我們正在投資新產品和擴建設施，同時增加對替代動力系統開發的資金投入。正如我們在新聞稿中提到的，DAF 最近推出了電動和混合動力汽車，這些汽車正在歐洲各地進行實地測試。Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 也正與我們的矽谷創新中心合作，致力於氫燃料電池、混合動力和電動動力系統以及自動駕駛汽車技術的研究。

Thank you. We'd be pleased to answer your questions.

謝謝。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

I'm wondering if you could talk about what booking trends you are seeing in your European business. How long are the lead times? Nice to hear about the share gain opportunity set. Maybe just flesh that out in terms of where book-to-bill is -- has tracked year-to-date? And any more color there would be helpful.

我想請您談談您在歐洲業務中觀察到的預訂趨勢。交貨週期有多長？很高興聽到有關股票增持機會的消息。或許可以具體說明一下訂單出貨比——今年迄今的追蹤情況如何？如果能多一些顏色就更好了。

Yes, the backlog is, I'd say, normal in terms of visibility that we have for our factory operations. And as we saw in the first quarter, registrations in the European market were up over last year, and you'll continue to see a good market for this year for the full year, as our forecast indicates.

是的，就我們工廠運作的可見度而言，我認為目前的積壓情況是正常的。正如我們在第一季看到的那樣，歐洲市場的註冊量比去年有所增長，正如我們的預測所示，今年全年市場將繼續保持良好勢頭。

And so your orders then are up year-over-year to support the comment about share gains of the market is at healthy levels, and you folks are picking up share. That's in the order book, Ron?

因此，你們的訂單量同比上升，這印證了市場份額增長處於健康水平的說法，你們正在擴大市場份額。羅恩，訂單簿上寫著呢？

Yes, the actual order intake is down a bit over the -- last year was a very strong first quarter. So order intake is down, similar to levels we've seen with our other European competitors.

是的，實際訂單量比去年同期略有下降——去年第一季業績非常強勁。因此，訂單量有所下降，與我們其他歐洲競爭對手的情況類似。

Okay. And then in the U.S. business, can you talk about whether you've seen any shifts in the production requests from your customers? Or are you seeing any folks looking to get earlier in the queue or later in the queue relative to the production plan? I guess, how fluid is the backlog situation in North America? And how firm is the production plan for the third quarter, as you see it?

好的。那麼，在美國市場，您能否談談您是否注意到客戶在生產需求上有任何變化？或者，您是否看到有人希望相對於生產計劃提前或延遲排隊？我想了解一下，北美地區的積壓案件處理情況如何？您認為第三季的生產計劃有多穩固？

I think it's all very firm. So I think all the movement of trucks in and out is just very normal and the backlog is very firm.

我覺得一切都很穩固。所以我認為卡車進出貨物的流動非常正常，積壓貨物的情況也很穩定。

Okay. And then from an SG&A standpoint, you folks were able to keep SG&A flat on really strong sales growth. I'm wondering if there's any comp dynamic going on in the year ago period. Or if you folks, as you continue raise production year-over-year, can maintain a flat SG&A? Any moving pieces for us to think about?

好的。從銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）的角度來看，你們在銷售成長強勁的情況下，仍能維持銷售、一般及行政費用不變。我想知道去年同期是否存在薪酬方面的變動。或者，如果你們在逐年提高產量的同時，能夠維持銷售、管理及行政費用不變呢？還有哪些需要考慮的變數？

Well, as you know, Jerry, rigorous cost management is something that we're very focused on and managing that over the cycle. There was some benefit in the quarter from some currency movement, but for the most part, it's just our ongoing focus on managing our cost for the entire cycle.

如你所知，傑瑞，嚴格的成本管理是我們非常重視的一點，我們會在整個週期中進行管理。本季匯率波動帶來了一些好處，但總的來說，我們仍然專注於在整個週期中控製成本。

Our next question comes from the line of Joel Tiss with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Joel Tiss。

So I keep hearing you guys are gaining market share in parts, and some of your dealers are gaining market share in parts. And I just wonder if you can kind of illuminate for us a little bit, who's losing share? Or is there just such a big opportunity out there for everybody that there is a lot more room to keep going?

我一直聽說你們的零件市場佔有率正在成長，你們的一些經銷商的零件市場佔有率也在成長。我想請您稍微解釋一下，哪些公司正在失去市場佔有率？或者說，對每個人來說，機會實在太大了，所以還有很大的發展空間？

I think a lot of that share gain comes from our engines, where we've been in the engine business in North America. This is our ninth year and so the -- as a percent of the total population of engines, the PACCAR MX engine is just becoming a bigger portion. And so that engine business is a nice add-on. Plus the -- we now have 175-or-so TRP stores around the globe, and so that enables the Parts group to get more penetration with all makes of customers' trailers, buses, et cetera. So I think those are probably the 2 key drivers of share growth in the Parts arena.

我認為我們市場份額的成長很大程度上來自於我們的引擎業務，我們在北美一直從事引擎業務。今年是我們的第九年，因此，PACCAR MX 引擎在引擎總數中所佔的比例越來越大。所以，引擎業務算是不錯的附加業務。此外，我們現在在全球擁有約 175 家 TRP 門市，這使得零件部門能夠更深入地滲透到客戶的各種品牌的拖車、巴士等產品中。所以我認為這可能是零部件領域市場佔有率成長的兩個關鍵驅動因素。

So the more the pirates, I guess, who are losing out?

所以，我想，損失最大的應該是海盜吧？

Excuse me?

打擾一下？

The pirates, like the third party, like non-OEM guys are the ones who are losing out?

那些盜版商，例如第三方廠商，例如非原廠廠商，才是最終的受害者？

On the TRP side, that would -- it could be the WDs, it could be other OEs. I don't know.

從 TRP 的角度來看，那可能是 WD，也可能是其他 OE。我不知道。

Okay. And also can you talk a little bit about what you guys have been working on for the last couple of years to handle -- we've been hearing about a potential slowdown in fourth quarter production levels, and can you just give us a little sense of how you guys can work your decremental margins and your cost structure to balance that out?

好的。另外，您能否談談過去幾年你們一直在努力應對的問題？我們聽說第四季產量可能會下降，您能否簡單介紹一下您們如何透過調整利潤率和成本結構來平衡這種情況？

Yes, I mean, we're full ahead on our production. We're going to continue to produce trucks. We -- as I said, the backlog is firm. The demand, we're quoting business into 2020. So full ahead for us and we're -- we've -- because we -- as we mentioned earlier, we manage that cost structure prudently during all times, all phases of the cycle. We've proven historically that we can manage our cost structure quite efficiently, and this will be no exception. We'll be able to manage that quite effectively with our factories and with our other operations.

是的，我的意思是，我們的生產正在全力推進。我們將繼續生產卡車。正如我所說，積壓的工作已經確定了。根據需求，我們預計業務將持續到 2020 年。所以，我們全力以赴，因為我們——正如我們之前提到的，我們在整個週期的所有階段都謹慎地管理成本結構。歷史已經證明，我們能夠非常有效地管理成本結構，這次也不例外。我們能夠透過我們的工廠和其他營運部門有效地管理這個問題。

And just one last one. Sorry to hog up all the time. Can you talk a little bit about Brazil? I see you highlighted it. And where your market share is, and what the market looks like for the next year or 2 there? And then I'm done.

最後一個問題。不好意思，我總是佔用大家的時間。能簡單談談巴西嗎？我看到你把它標記出來了。你的市佔率在哪裡？未來一兩年那裡的市場前景如何？然後我就完成了。

Yes, so we're at 6.7% share, last year. Similar in the first quarter. We are continuing to increase our production. We produced over 1,000 trucks in the first quarter. In 2018, we basically doubled production from the prior year, and we'll be in a similar kind of scale this year for 2019. So we -- the product has just been very well received by all of our customers and the industry as a whole, and we've been recognized as the brand of the year for the last 3 years. So we have great dealership representatives. We've got a good network to support the trucks, and so we're continuing to improve our positioning there, and we're also expanding our parts and service presence, and we're going to add a 160,000 square-foot PDC that we'll be opening probably in early first half of 2020. We've been using part of our truck factory as a parts warehouse, so we need to grow that and support that. So the future is very bright for our Brazilian operations.

是的，去年我們的市佔率是 6.7%。第一季情況類似。我們正在持續提高產量。第一季我們生產了1000多輛卡車。2018 年，我們的產量基本上比前一年翻了一番，2019 年的產量規模也將與此類似。因此，我們的產品受到了所有客戶和整個行業的熱烈歡迎，並且在過去 3 年裡，我們一直被評為年度品牌。所以我們有非常優秀的經銷商代表。我們擁有良好的卡車支援網絡，因此我們正在不斷改進我們在該領域的定位，同時也在擴大我們的零件和服務業務，我們將增設一個 16 萬平方英尺的 PDC，預計將於 2020 年上半年初開業。我們一直將卡車工廠的一部分用作零件倉庫，因此我們需要擴大和支援這個倉庫。因此，我們在巴西的業務前景非常光明。

Our next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

Quick question. The second quarter, you have deliveries up 4% but you're implying gross margins flat to down. Can you help explain that?

問個問題。第二季度，你們的交車量成長了 4%，但你們卻暗示毛利率持平或下降。你能幫忙解釋一下嗎？

Yes, so the truck margins are in the 12%, 12.5% range. First quarter, the truck margins were 12.5%. So a lot of the incremental revenue will come from the truck side, and so that weighting effect of trucks versus parts will sort of keep us in a similar range as to the first quarter.

是的，所以卡車運輸的利潤率在 12% 到 12.5% 之間。第一季度，卡車利潤率為 12.5%。因此，新增收入的大部分將來自卡車業務，卡車與零件的權重效應將使我們的收入與第一季保持相似的水平。

Okay. And then also, I noticed the CapEx increase, but you'll hold the R&D or actually even tweaked it a little lower. And I am just trying to say -- this might be a question more for the meeting coming up in May, but just trying to understand with all the new drivetrain technology and so forth, and for a long time, people have always wondered how the R&D as a percent of sales is so low for PACCAR. Can you help explain, is there some capitalization of some of these dollars that maybe some people might think would be expenses, R&D? Can you just help us a little bit with the divergence between the CapEx increase and the R&D?

好的。另外，我還注意到資本支出增加了，但你們會控制研發投入，甚至可能會稍微降低一些。我只是想說——這個問題或許更適合在五月的會議上討論，但我只是想了解，考慮到所有的新動力傳動系統技術等等，長期以來，人們一直想知道為什麼 PACCAR 的研發支出佔銷售額的比例如此之低。您能否幫忙解釋一下，這些資金中是否有一些被資本化了，而有些人可能會認為這些資金是支出或研發費用？您能否幫我們解釋一下資本支出成長和研發投入之間的差異？

Yes, the CapEx increase is purely just as we've gotten into the year, the ability of our teams to move things forward has gone quicker than what we anticipated. Our plans are still pretty much the same. But we're actually going to be able to get things done quicker than what we'd originally anticipated. So that's the capital increase. The R&D is just part of how we prudently manage our product development efforts and have for years. We're probably going to spend a record amount of R&D for our company this year, but it's well thought out, well positioned, and we feel good about we're doing everything we need to do to support the future needs for greenhouse gas changes, future products and also the advanced powertrain arena. So I think we feel really good about what we're doing and the things that we're investing in, both on the capital and R&D side.

是的，資本支出增加只是因為今年以來，我們團隊推動各項工作的能力比我們預期的要快。我們的計劃基本上保持不變。但實際上，我們完成事情的速度會比我們最初預期的還要快。這就是增資情況。研發只是我們多年來謹慎管理產品開發工作的一部分。今年我們公司在研發方面的投入可能會創下歷史新高，但這筆投入是經過深思熟慮的，定位也很準確。我們感覺我們正在盡一切努力來滿足未來溫室氣體變化、未來產品以及先進動力系統領域的需求。所以我覺得我們對我們正在做的事情以及我們在資本和研發方面的投資都感到非常滿意。

Well, I think this is an important issue because people are trying to figure out the cost pressures on the company with potentially some volume declines coming in the next year or 2. So the divergence of -- we were able to pull things forward and thus the CapEx goes up but not the R&D.

我認為這是一個重要的問題，因為人們正在努力弄清楚公司面臨的成本壓力，未來一兩年銷售量可能會下降。因此，我們能夠提前完成一些項目，因此資本支出增加了，但研發投入卻沒有增加。

The R&D has gone up.

研發投入增加了。

Can you help us understand a little better the -- No, but the change, the change from the start of the year that caused the CapEx to go up hasn't had a commensurate increase in the R&D.

您能幫我們更理解一下嗎？ ——不，但是年初以來導致資本支出增加的變化，並沒有為研發帶來相應的成長。

Yes, because the plans and projects that we're working on hasn't changed. It's just the pace at which those capital projects are being executed and the ability to get those done quicker than what we had originally anticipated. So there was no change in the projects. It's just recognition of the timing of incurring those capital-related costs.

是的，因為我們正在進行的計劃和項目並沒有改變。問題在於這些大型專案的執行速度，以及我們能夠比原先預期更快完成這些專案。所以項目沒有任何變化。這只是對產生這些資本相關成本的時機的把握。

Can we -- I guess we can dive into this more in the May meeting, but I think the idea is, sure, if there's CapEx-related costs for the new introductions, the R&D has stayed at a relatively low level. And I think the ability to continue to do that the next couple of years or lack thereof is a big discussion around the earnings resiliency. So I'll look forward to going into a little more detail in May.

我們能否－我想我們可以在五月的會議上更深入地探討這個問題，但我認為，當然，如果新產品的推出有資本支出相關的成本，那麼研發投入一直保持在相對較低的水平。我認為，未來幾年能否繼續做到這一點，或者說能否繼續做到這一點，是圍繞盈利韌性展開的一場重要討論。所以我很期待在五月能更詳細地談談這件事。

Sure. Okay.

當然。好的。

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

So Harrie mentioned that used truck values are up year-over-year. I am curious on used truck inventories. How do the levels in Q1 compare to Q4 2018, both on your own lots and on dealer lots, and what you're expecting for the used truck market later this year as trade-ins likely keep coming in?

哈里提到，二手卡車的價格較去年同期上漲。我對二手卡車庫存狀況很感興趣。與 2018 年第四季相比，您自有場地和經銷商場地的庫存水準如何？隨著置換車輛的不斷湧入，您對今年稍後二手卡車市場有何預期？

Used truck inventories are I think almost the same level as they were at the end of last year. The amount for used trucks in -- especially in North America has been really good. We see good pricing, good demand for premium trucks. So...

我認為二手卡車庫存量與去年年底的水準幾乎相同。二手卡車的市場需求——尤其是在北美地區——一直非常旺盛。我們看到高端卡車定價合理，需求旺盛。所以...

And we're continuing to fill out our used truck locations. We're going to be adding a new location on the property where our Denton factory is located to further supplement our ability to sell used trucks, and we're the biggest used truck seller for Peterbilt and Kenworth vehicles, and we continue to support those excellent residual values.

我們正在不斷擴充二手卡車庫存。我們將在丹頓工廠所在的土地上增設一個新地點，以進一步增強我們銷售二手卡車的能力。我們是彼得比爾特和肯沃斯車輛最大的二手卡車銷售商，我們將繼續支援這些車輛優異的殘值。

Okay. And then I know you guys generally frame oil and gas as being really only a very modest contributor to earnings. But curious just on order trends in oil and gas for trucks, and how the capacity expansion of pipelines later this year might affect some of the market assumptions you might have.

好的。我知道你們通常認為石油和天然氣對收益的貢獻非常有限。但我很好奇卡車石油和天然氣的訂單趨勢，以及今年稍後管道產能的擴張可能會如何影響您可能的一些市場假設。

Yes, if there is pipeline capacity expansion and more importantly, if there's an infrastructure program that gets approved, that will be -- we're the vocational truck leader in North America and both of those things would be big pluses for our business. But as we said, the backlog for this year is very firm.

是的，如果管道輸送能力得到提升，更重要的是，如果基礎設施項目獲得批准，那將是——我們是北美專業卡車行業的領導者，這兩件事對我們的業務來說都是巨大的利好。但正如我們所說，今年的積壓訂單非常充足。

Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Jamie Cook。

I know you talked about price -- price realization in the quarter of 3%, I think you said, which was pretty good. Can you just -- was that better than your expectations? And sort of what are your assumptions for the remainder of the year? And then my second question, understanding a very good visibility into 2019, just based on conversations you're having with your customers, what are they saying about 2020? Is it in line with industry forecasts? And then I guess last, congratulations, Ron and Preston. But Preston, any initial views on -- as you take over, any top priorities?

我知道你談到了價格——你提到季度價格實現率為 3%，我想你說這相當不錯。請問——這比你預期的還要好嗎？那麼，您對今年剩餘時間有什麼預期呢？那麼我的第二個問題是，基於您與客戶的對話，您對 2019 年有了非常清楚的了解，他們對 2020 年有什麼看法？這與產業預測相符嗎？最後，我要祝賀羅恩和普雷斯頓。普雷斯頓，你接手後有什麼初步想法？有哪些首要任務？

I'll let Preston go first or I can start with the [back then].

我先讓普雷斯頓開始，或者我可以先從[當時]開始。

No. I think that PACCAR has been performing exceptionally well. We're a long history. We've a great team in place, bringing great results, good strategy and we plan to continue with that.

不。我認為PACCAR的表現非常出色。我們擁有悠久的歷史。我們擁有一支優秀的團隊，他們取得了豐碩的成果，制定了良好的策略，我們計劃繼續保持這種勢頭。

So back on the truck pricing. I think on a year-over-year basis, I think we'll see similar comparison when you look back to the same quarter of the prior year, similar performance. That offsets some increases in cost, but I think we'll see similar performance of what we saw in the first quarter.

所以我們再回到卡車定價的問題上。我認為，如果按年計算，回顧上年同期，我們會看到類似的對比結果，業績也類似。這可以抵消部分成本成長，但我認為我們會看到與第一季類似的業績表現。

And then just color on what your customers are saying about 2020 relative to what industry forecasts are saying?

然後，根據客戶對 2020 年的看法以及產業預測，進行相應的概括和描述？

Well, I mean we're having negotiations with customers on an ongoing basis about 2020 deliveries. So and I think there's still recognition that the economy is good, the demand for freight is good, discussions with customers, people that need to haul freight, it's -- there's still a pretty tight market to be able to get things delivered on a timely basis. So we're preparing for a continuation of the good market conditions into 2020.

嗯，我的意思是，我們一直在與客戶就 2020 年的交付事宜進行談判。所以，我認為人們仍然意識到經濟狀況良好，貨運需求良好，與客戶、需要運輸貨物的人進行討論後發現，市場仍然非常緊張，難以保證貨物及時送達。因此，我們正在為2020年良好的市場狀況繼續保持做好準備。

And with all the improvements in greenhouse gas emissions, our customers keep seeing that the trucks we're building today deliver up to 15% better fuel economy than the trucks they bought 4 years ago, and that really helps them when they have to decide in replacing their equipment.

隨著溫室氣體排放的不斷改善，我們的客戶不斷發現，我們今天生產的卡車比他們 4 年前購買的卡車燃油效率提高了 15%，這在他們決定更換設備時確實對他們有所幫助。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe O'Dea with Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Joe O'Dea。

You continued to post share gains in Europe this quarter. Can you just give a little bit of detail within the region, where you're seeing some of that progress, and then if there's any mix effect within that as well? Are you seeing a little bit better traction with some of the larger fleets in Europe?

本季你們在歐洲的市佔率持續成長。您能否詳細介紹一下您所在區域的具體情況，例如您看到的進展情況，以及其中是否存在任何混合效應？您是否注意到，在歐洲一些規模較大的車隊中，這種趨勢有所改善？

Yes, I'll take that one. Really having excellent broad performance across Europe, but it's exceptionally strong in Poland, and the U.K. has produced nice results this year. I think that we, as DAF, have the best trucks, operating the best life cycle cost for our customers, and that's being borne out with the performance of them in the market, and we're seeing the fleets recognize that now. So we're gaining share with some of the larger fleets in Europe and growing broadly throughout Europe. That's what's leading to this strong performance.

是的，我要那個。在歐洲整體表現非常出色，但在波蘭表現特別強勁，英國今年也取得了不錯的成績。我認為，作為 DAF，我們擁有最好的卡車，為我們的客戶提供最佳的生命週期成本，這一點已通過它們在市場上的表現得到證實，我們現在也看到車隊認識到了這一點。因此，我們正在贏得歐洲一些大型船隊的青睞，並在整個歐洲廣泛發展。這就是他們表現如此出色的原因。

And then on the CapEx front and the investment in the engine plants, is that tied at all to things you see on the horizon as an opportunity to really catalyze the next stage of engine penetration for you? I don't know whether that's related to Phase 2 or anything else. But as we saw the initial progress on share gains since the launch in 2010, that plateaued a bit, kind of wondering what you see on the horizon, both contributing toward making the investments now and kind of triggering some potential share gains.

那麼，在資本支出和引擎工廠投資方面，這是否與您認為未來能夠真正推動引擎滲透進入下一階段的機會有關？我不知道這是否與第二階段有關，還是與其他任何事情有關。但正如我們看到自 2010 年推出以來，市佔率成長的初步進展有所停滯，這讓我們不禁想知道未來會怎樣，這不僅有助於我們進行當前的投資，也有助於引發一些潛在的市佔率成長。

Yes, I mean basically, we're selling every engine that we can produce, and so we need the additional capacity in our factories, and we need the additional capacity with our suppliers. So that's where the investment is focused, so we can go to those next plateaus and deliver great engines to our customers.

是的，我的意思是，基本上我們生產的引擎都賣光了，所以我們的工廠需要額外的產能，我們的供應商也需要額外的產能。所以，這就是投資的重點，這樣我們才能達到下一個階段性目標，並為我們的客戶提供優秀的引擎。

Our next question comes from Neil Frohnapple with Buckingham Research.

下一個問題來自白金漢研究公司的尼爾‧弗羅納普爾。

Just a couple of follow-ups from earlier questions. So if I recall, PACCAR was the first in the industry to cut production in the fourth quarter of 2015, ahead of the 2016 decline in Class 8 production. You guys obviously still sound pretty positive on the fundamentals, but the industry is chewing through the backlog at a quick pace, so curious on what you're looking at on whether you'll start to take down the daily build rate later this year. Do you need Class 8 orders to rise in the summer or early fall time frame? Just any more thoughts there would be helpful.

針對之前的問題，我還有一些後續問題。如果我沒記錯的話，PACCAR 是業內第一個在 2015 年第四季削減產量的公司，這比 2016 年 8 級卡車產量下降的情況提前了一步。你們顯然對基本面仍然相當樂觀，但行業正在快速消化積壓訂單，所以我很好奇你們正在考慮今年晚些時候是否會開始降低每日構建速度。您是否希望8級訂單在夏季或初秋期間增加？如果還有其他想法，那就太好了。

The back -- as I said the backlog's firm, we're moving full ahead. So...

積壓的工作已經完成，我們正在全力進行中。所以...

Okay. And then you guys are continuing to build momentum in Brazil. What are the plans on launching more products in the region for some of the lower weight classes of vehicles?

好的。然後你們在巴西繼續保持發展勢頭。未來是否有計劃在該地區推出更多針對輕型車輛的產品？

Yes, that's certainly on the drawing board and part of our process. We've obviously been balancing our entry into the market, and as we continue to grow and expand our business, we'll be introducing new products, just like we do in all markets around the world, to continue to enhance our position in that market as well. So yes, that's definitely on our road map.

是的，這當然在我們的計畫之中，也是我們流程的一部分。我們顯然一直在平衡進入市場的策略，隨著我們業務的不斷發展壯大，我們將像在全球所有市場一樣，推出新產品，以繼續鞏固我們在該市場的地位。是的，這絕對在我們的計劃之中。

Okay. And then one last one, Ron. So it sounds like the supplier constraints are largely improved. I mean are they completely behind at this point, or is that still an opportunity to benefit the margins as we move through the year?

好的。最後還有一個問題，羅恩。聽起來供應商的限制條件已基本改善。我的意思是，他們現在是否完全落後了，還是說隨著年數的推移，這仍然是一個拉開差距的機會？

We're going to continue to work very closely with our suppliers to continue to move up our build rates in the second quarter and third quarters in North America, and so it's always an orchestrated effort with our suppliers. We feel good about -- obviously, the performance in the first quarter was much better than what we saw in the second half of the year, and we expect that to continue for the rest of this year.

我們將繼續與供應商密切合作，以提高北美地區第二季和第三季的生產速度，因此，這始終是與供應商共同努力的結果。顯然，我們對第一季的表現感到滿意——比下半年的表現要好得多，我們預計這種情況將在今年餘下的時間裡繼續下去。

Our next question comes from the line of Ross Gilardi with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅斯·吉拉迪。

I was just wondering if I can get some of your thoughts and how they're evolving in alternative powertrain. What are you in-sourcing versus outsourcing? And as things develop, are you leaning more towards doing more in-house versus outsourcing and why?

我只是想了解您對替代動力系統的看法以及它們的發展現狀。你們是採用內部生產還是外包模式？隨著事態發展，您是否更傾向於更多地進行內部開發而不是外包？為什麼？

Yes, I think it's a real exploratory time with respect to a lot of the new technologies, and we're taking multiple paths in terms of developing our own internal capabilities, working closely with a variety of suppliers who are developing their capabilities. As we progress over the next 12 to 24 months, we'll be sort of figuring out what the best path is for us for the long term. And there's still quite a bit of challenge with respect to the economic viability of some of these powertrain choices and can they survive without a high degree of subsidization? So in our mind, it's still early days. I know we have a lot of customers who want to have some initial trucks to have in their fleet so they can understand the capability, and we're supporting those, and so we'll continue to explore our avenues. And as I say, the next 12 to 24 months will be critical for us to sort of define our way forward.

是的，我認為對於許多新技術來說，現在正是一個真正的探索時期，我們在發展自身內部能力方面採取了多種途徑，並與各種正在發展自身能力的供應商密切合作。在接下來的 12 到 24 個月裡，我們將逐步摸索對我們來說長期發展的最佳道路。就某些動力系統選擇的經濟可行性而言，仍然存在相當大的挑戰，它們能否在沒有大量補貼的情況下生存？所以我們認為，現在還為時過早。我知道我們有很多客戶希望在他們的車隊中配備一些初始卡車，以便了解其性能，我們正在支持這些客戶，因此我們將繼續探索各種途徑。正如我所說，接下來的 12 到 24 個月對我們確定未來的發展方向至關重要。

What about, Ron, your Silicon Valley office? What are you learning out there, particularly on the autonomous development?

羅恩，你的矽谷辦公室怎麼樣了？你從中學到了什麼，尤其是在自主開發方面？

A lot. When we first made the decision to open up that office, that was -- it was clear there was a lot of research that was being done on that area, and so our team in Silicon Valley, that's where we're really developing our internal capabilities for autonomy. We have a great team there, and they're really working closely with some third-party suppliers to develop our own packages, and then as I said, we're working with others who have their packages and want to incorporate those into our vehicles, and so we have multiple paths that we're working on there. But the Silicon Valley office and Silicon Valley team has been very helpful as well as our technical teams in our tech center up here in Mount Vernon in Washington and in Eindhoven. They're all working together quite well to help further our efforts and be smarter about what's possible and all the things you have to think about to accomplish successful implementation.

很多。當我們最初決定開設那個辦事處時，很明顯，該領域有很多研究正在進行，因此我們在矽谷的團隊，正是在那裡，我們真正發展我們內部的自主能力。我們在那裡有一個很棒的團隊，他們正在與一些第三方供應商密切合作，開發我們自己的軟體包。正如我所說，我們也在與其他擁有自己軟體包並希望將其整合到我們車輛中的公司合作，因此我們正在探索多種途徑。但是，矽谷辦事處和矽谷團隊以及我們在華盛頓州弗農山和埃因霍溫技術中心的技術團隊都給了我們很大的幫助。他們都很好地合作，幫助我們推進工作，更明智地看待各種可能性以及成功實施所需考慮的所有事項。

And then just lastly, geographically, I mean now that you've had the real success with Brazil and gotten that off the ground. And I think when you originally launched that investment, the idea was you get to a 10% market share in first 5 years or so, and you seem like you're well on the path to doing that. Might we hear something relatively soon about other geographies, be it China and India, which you've talked about on and off for years? Are you getting any closer to making an investment in one of those regions?

最後，從地理位置上來說，我的意思是，既然你們在巴西取得了真正的成功，並且已經把巴西市場發展起來了。我認為，當初你們啟動這項投資時，目標是在前五年左右達到 10% 的市場份額，而現在看來，你們似乎正在朝著這個目標穩步前進。我們很快就能聽到一些關於其他地區（例如中國和印度）的消息？您多年來一直斷斷續續地談到這些地區。你離在這些地區投資的目標更近一步了嗎？

Well, the way I think of it, every day that goes by, we're a day closer. But there's nothing on the horizon. We continue to -- we have offices in Beijing, we have offices in Shanghai, we have an office in Pune, India with hundreds of employees working in those areas, and they're providing valuable support for sourcing from suppliers, for engineering technology, embedded software. So we get a lot of support from those teams, and we make a lot of trips and have a lot of discussions with potential partners, both on the OEM side, the component side to evaluate what -- where's that opportunity that's going to provide us a good return for our shareholders. And so we'll continue to evaluate because it is -- they are large markets, and there's opportunity there. It just has to be a situation that's going to make sense for us as a company and provide us a reasonable return.

我覺得，每過一天，我們就離目標更近一步。但目前還沒有任何跡象顯示會有什麼進展。我們繼續——我們在北京、上海、印度浦那都設有辦事處，有數百名員工在這些地區工作，他們為供應商採購、工程技術和嵌入式軟體提供了寶貴的支援。因此，我們從這些團隊得到了很多支持，我們進行了很多旅行，與潛在的合作夥伴（包括 OEM 廠商和零件供應商）進行了很多討論，以評估——哪裡有能為我們的股東帶來良好回報的機會。因此，我們將繼續評估，因為這些都是很大的市場，那裡蘊藏著機會。這必須是對我們公司來說有意義，並且能為我們帶來合理回報的情況。

Our next question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

Just a quick follow-up, you discussed the Parts business where you've a long run of success in both improving revenues and margins. Has the mix of those more proprietary engine parts been a material contributor to your margin gains? Or has that been more operational? Is the mix on the come still? I don't know if you're willing to segment that margin gain, but that's the question.

我再補充一點，您剛才談到了零件業務，您在提高收入和利潤率方面取得了長期的成功。這些專有引擎零件的組合是否對你們的利潤成長做出了實質貢獻？或者說，這在操作層面上更適用？混音還在進行中嗎？我不知道你是否願意將這部分利潤分成幾個部分，但這就是問題所在。

Yes, I think there has been a positive impact on the margin performance of our operations in North America. Europe, we've always had our own engine, and so we've enjoyed those margins for quite some time, and we've seen margin enhancement in North America as a result of selling -- the engine parts sales have sort of outsized the total growth in North America and so that's a contributor.

是的，我認為這對我們在北美的業務利潤率產生了積極影響。在歐洲，我們一直擁有自己的發動機，因此我們已經享受了相當長的一段時間的利潤率。而在北美，由於引擎零件的銷售，利潤率有所提高——引擎零件的銷售額在北美整體成長方面有所成長，這也是一個貢獻因素。

And then have we seen that gain flow through from the market share gain you've had on your engine in North America? Or -- I don't know the full lag of when parts sales come versus the engine. I don't know if there's still some maturity to come in that margin mix.

那麼，我們是否已經看到，您在北美市場引擎市佔率的成長所帶來的效益也惠及了您自身呢？或者——我不知道零件銷售與引擎銷售之間存在怎樣的延遲時間。我不知道這種利潤率組合是否還有進一步成熟的空間。

Yes, so I mean as the engines mature, and you get to -- we're getting to the point now where you're starting to get into more replacement and overhaul kinds of activities for our engines, and so we're just starting to see the benefits of that phase of the aftermarket opportunity.

是的，我的意思是隨著引擎技術的成熟，我們現在正處於這樣一個階段：引擎的更換和大修活動越來越多，因此我們開始看到售後市場這一階段帶來的好處。

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Uhlman with Cleveland Research.

我們的下一個問題來自克利夫蘭研究公司的亞當·烏爾曼。

Congrats on all the records. And congrats on the retirement, Ron and Preston.

恭喜你們打破所有紀錄。恭喜羅恩和普雷斯頓退休。

Yes.

是的。

Hey, first to start with the step-up in CapEx for the year. I might have missed it earlier on the call, but what exact projects were pulled forward? Is this the paint facility or some of the distribution centers you're landing in this year? Or could you expand on that a bit, please?

嘿，首先要說的是今年資本支出的大幅增加。我可能在之前的電話會議中錯過了，但具體有哪些項目被提拔了？這是你們今年要考察的油漆工廠還是某些配送中心？或者能否再詳細解釋一下？

Yes, there's really nothing -- I guess I would say no projects pulled forward. It's just the execution of the projects that we have been planning all along. We have new PDCs, we have factory expansions, we had a nice grand -- groundbreaking for the Chillicothe paint shop, and those things are just that -- we're going to be able to get those projects done faster and moving quicker than what we had originally anticipated. So our spending, it's just -- is purely just a matter of the timing of the spend. Those have always been part of our plan.

是的，確實什麼都沒有——我想說，沒有任何專案被推進。這只是我們一直以來計劃的專案的執行過程。我們有了新的PDC，工廠也進行了擴建，奇利科西噴漆車間舉行了盛大的奠基儀式，這些事情就是這樣——我們將能夠比最初預期的更快地完成這些項目。所以，我們的支出，純粹只是支出時機的問題。這些一直都在我們的計劃之中。

Got you. And then with the build rates expected to be up 2% to 4% sequentially in the second quarter, could you help us understand how that plays out between North America and Europe? And then I guess I think you'd mentioned a minute ago that builds would be increasing again in the third quarter for North America. Did I hear that right? And by how much?

抓到你了。其次，預計第二季建築率將較上季成長 2% 至 4%，您能否幫助我們了解北美和歐洲之間的成長？然後，我想你剛才好像提到過，北美地區的建築量將在第三季再次增加。我沒聽錯吧？具體差多少？

Yes, I think what we'll see is -- the production, that 2% to 4% is pretty much all North America driven, and I think in the third quarter, we'd probably see a similar level of production. We have the 2-week summer shutdown at DAF in the third quarter. So that -- we'll see a reduction in production in Europe, but it should be, for the most part, offset by production levels in North America.

是的，我認為我們會看到——這 2% 到 4% 的產量增長幾乎全部來自北美，我認為在第三季度，我們可能會看到類似的產量水平。DAF公司第三季有為期兩週的夏季停工期。因此，歐洲的產量將會下降，但這在很大程度上應該會被北美的產量水準所抵消。

Okay. Got you. And then just a clarification. I think you mentioned that the orders were down in Europe. Could you tell us by about how much? And what the orders in North America have been looking like year-over-year?

好的。抓到你了。最後再補充一點。我想你之前提到過歐洲的訂單量下降了。大概差多少？那麼，北美地區的訂單量與往年相比如何呢？

Yes, the orders in North America are -- because of the strength of the backlog, I think they're reflective of just the customers that are really filling in the few open slots that exist for 2019, but mostly it's for 2020 build. And again, in Europe, we saw a reduction in orders from -- last year's first quarter was when the backlog really got built up for DAF, and so we saw a reduction in the first quarter to I guess I'd say more normal levels of order intake.

是的，北美地區的訂單——由於積壓訂單量很大，我認為這些訂單反映的只是那些真正填補了 2019 年少數空缺的客戶，但大部分的訂單都是針對 2020 年生產。同樣，在歐洲，我們看到訂單量有所下降——去年第一季是 DAF 積壓訂單真正開始堆積的時候，所以我們看到第一季度的訂單量下降到，我想應該說是恢復到更正常的水平。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

（操作說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Scott Group 與 Wolfe Research 的合作計畫。

It's Rob on for Scott. With a quick follow-up on -- in terms of the North America production outlook that you guys are expecting to ramp up. You guys generated some very good incremental margins that I'm backing into on the truck in the first quarter. Should we be thinking about similar incremental margins as we look out into the second quarter based on the roughly 3% pricing you guys were talking to as the production ramps as well?

羅布代替斯科特上場。關於你們預計北美地區產量將大幅提升的問題，我想快速跟進一下。你們創造了一些非常好的增量利潤，我預計第一季就能從卡車運輸業務中獲利。鑑於你們先前提到的價格上漲幅度約為 3%，隨著產量的提升，我們是否也應該考慮在第二季獲得類似的利潤成長？

Yes, I'd say similar. I mean it depends a little bit on the customer mix, the model mix, the geography mix, so there's lot of factors that weigh into that. So something in a similar range would be...

是的，我覺得差不多。我的意思是，這在一定程度上取決於客戶組成、車型組成、地理位置組成，所以有很多因素都會影響到這一點。所以類似範圍的產品應該是…

And the past couple quarters on the finance side, you guys have had very low provisions for losses on receivables. Is this a good run rate looking forward based on your outlook of the market at around 0.6% of revenue? Or should we be expecting that to kind of move as we look forward?

過去幾個季度，你們在財務方面應收帳款損失準備金提列得非常低。根據您對市場前景的預期，這個成長率（約佔營收的 0.6%）是否合理？或者我們應該預期這種情況會隨著時間推移而改變？

Well, I mean, because of the strength of the freight markets, our customers have enjoyed excellent performance. Our credit teams and our finance teams have done a lot of work to really apply lot of intelligent data analytics to our credit underwriting. We feel really good about the capabilities there. And so as long as the economy is good, the freight markets are good, the portfolio will continue to perform very well. We've seen improvement in used trucks, and the portfolio is growing. The team has some great technology that they've made available to our customers, and so I think all of that is playing to our finance company's capabilities and performance.

嗯，我的意思是，由於貨運市場的強勁表現，我們的客戶獲得了優異的業績。我們的信貸團隊和財務團隊做了大量工作，真正將許多智慧數據分析應用於我們的信貸承銷。我們對那裡的能力感到非常滿意。因此，只要經濟狀況良好，貨運市場良好，該投資組合就會繼續表現良好。我們看到二手卡車市場有所改善，產品組合也不斷擴大。團隊擁有一些非常棒的技術，並已將其提供給我們的客戶，所以我認為所有這些都有助於提升我們金融公司的能力和績效。

That makes sense. And can you remind me what your used truck pricing was up in the quarter and the type of volumes that you guys saw?

這很有道理。您能提醒我一下你們本季二手卡車的價格上漲了多少，銷售量又是多少嗎？

Yes, it was up 2% to 3% compared to the first quarter of last year. I don't have the used truck volumes last year. For 2018, we sold about 15,000 Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF used trucks, and so that's 3,000 to 4,000 a quarter, so I would guess that we're probably somewhere in the 3,000, 3,500 range for used trucks sales in the first quarter.

是的，與去年第一季相比成長了2%至3%。我沒有去年二手卡車的銷售數據。2018 年，我們售出了約 15,000 輛 Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 二手卡車，也就是每季 3,000 到 4,000 輛，所以我估計我們第一季二手卡車的銷量可能在 3,000 到 3,500 輛之間。

Our next question comes from the line of Seth Weber with RBC Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital 的 Seth Weber。

Just a quick -- couple of quick follow-ups. I guess just thinking about the Parts business again, I mean would you -- do you think it's fair to think about that business being -- that, that business could be up next year even if new truck demand is lower, is my first question?

簡單問幾個後續問題。我想，再想想零件業務，我的意思是，你認為即使明年新卡車需求下降，這個業務也有可能成長，這種想法公平嗎？這是我的第一個問題。

That surely would be our aim. Again, we're continuing to add additional TRP stores, we're continuing to add additional Peterbilt and Kenworth dealer locations, adding locations in markets like Brazil and other areas. And so our goal is to continue to have the new programs in place, the additional technology to continue to build that business throughout all cycles.

那肯定是我們的目標。我們將繼續增加 TRP 門市，繼續增加 Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 經銷商門市，並在巴西等市場和其他地區增加門市。因此，我們的目標是繼續推行新項目，並引入更多技術，以便在所有周期中持續發展這項業務。

Okay, so you think like a low to mid-single digit kind of number for next year is reasonable?

好的，所以你認為明年數字定在個位數左右比較合理？

Yes, it's probably a little bit early to commit to something.

是的，現在就做出承諾可能有點早。

Okay. Fair enough. And then just going back to the pricing and the incremental margin questions. I mean, are you assuming that input costs kind of stay where they are for the rest of the year? I mean I guess some companies are talking about input costs coming down for the balance of the year, so just trying to kind of frame operating leverage going forward.

好的。很公平。然後，我們再回到定價和增量利潤的問題上。我的意思是，你是否假設投入成本在今年剩餘的時間裡保持不變？我的意思是，我猜有些公司正在討論今年剩餘時間的投入成本將會下降，所以只是想為未來的營運槓桿問題做個大致的規劃。

I think that our assumption is probably a pretty steady input cost. We have -- most of our components are purchased under long-term agreements, and so it takes a little while to blend cost movements into the cost of the vehicles, et cetera. So I think that's pretty much our assumption, is a pretty stable cost environment.

我認為我們的假設可能是投入成本相當穩定。我們的大部分零件都是根據長期協議採購的，因此需要一些時間才能將成本變動融入車輛成本等。所以我認為這基本上就是我們的假設，就是成本環境相當穩定。

Our next question comes from the line of Faheem Sabeiha with Longbow Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Longbow Research 的 Faheem Sabeiha。

Congrats on a great quarter. Just a question on the MX production. Is there maybe some plans or an ability to accelerate that production capacity coming online sooner? It just seems like with your share remaining in the -- where it's at now exiting the cycle, it could maybe stall engine parts growth opportunity that you laid out in your Investor Day last year.

恭喜你本季表現出色。關於MX的生產，我有個問題。是否有計畫或能力加快產能上線速度？看起來，由於您的股份目前仍處於週期末期，可能會阻礙您去年在投資者日上提出的引擎零件成長機會。

Yes, as a company, we produced last year 97,500 engines, which is the highest that we've ever produced, and obviously, of that -- every one of those -- DAF had record production, and so every DAF truck has a PACCAR engine. And so as time goes on, we'll have -- see more penetration of those engines into Kenworth and Peterbilt trucks, and we are -- we've committed the money to get the capacity in place as quickly as we can. I think most of that will be being implemented in the 2019, '20 time frame for having full availability at the 2021-ish time frame.

是的，作為一家公司，我們去年生產了 97,500 台發動機，這是我們有史以來生產的最高數量，而且顯然，其中每一台發動機——DAF 都創下了生產紀錄，因此每一輛 DAF 卡車都配備了 PACCAR 發動機。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們將看到這些引擎更多地應用於肯沃斯和彼得比爾特卡車，而且我們已經投入資金，盡快實現產能目標。我認為大部分內容將在 2019 年、2020 年期間實施，以便在 2021 年左右全面可用。

Okay. And kind of adding to Seth's question, I guess with the looming decline in Class 8 production, do you think, say, a more favorable price cost environment, lower premium freight costs and lower overtime, to the extent you're at that level today, will maybe offset the decline in volumes when you look at your gross margin next year?

好的。補充 Seth 的問題，我想，鑑於 8 級卡車產量即將下降，您認為，例如，更有利的價格成本環境、更低的優質貨運成本和更低的加班費（如果您目前處於這些水平），是否能夠抵消銷量下降的影響，從而提高您明年的毛利率？

Yes, I -- the demand for trucks is there, and we're all ahead, and as I had mentioned before, when things do adjust down, we've proven over many, many cycles that we're very adept at managing through those. So we'll continue to execute that very well, at whatever point that may happen.

是的，我——對卡車的需求一直都在，我們都處於領先地位，而且正如我之前提到的，當情況有所下調時，我們已經在很多很多周期中證明，我們非常擅長應對這些情況。所以無論何時發生，我們都會繼續出色地執行這項任務。

There are no other questions in queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

目前沒有其他問題在排隊。公司還有其他補充說明嗎？

Yes, we'd like to thank everyone for joining the call and thank you, operator.

是的，感謝大家參與通話，也謝謝接線生。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，PACCAR的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。