帕卡 (PCAR) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. And if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time.

早安，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2018 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的通話正在錄音。如果有人有異議，請立即斷開連接。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我謹向大家介紹 PACCAR 的投資者關係總監 Ken Hastings 先生。哈斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning. We'd like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Ron Armstrong, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; Preston Feight, Executive Vice President; and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller.

早安.我們歡迎透過電話收聽的聽眾和透過網路直播收聽的聽眾。我是肯‧黑斯廷斯，PACCAR公司的投資人關係總監。今天早上和我一起的還有執行長羅恩·阿姆斯特朗；總裁兼首席財務官哈里·希珀斯；執行副總裁普雷斯頓·費特；以及高級副總裁兼財務總監邁克爾·巴克利。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results. A summary of risks and uncertainties is described in more detail in our periodic reports filed with the SEC. For additional information, please see our SEC filings in the Investor Relations page of paccar.com.

與以往的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有參與電話會議的媒體成員以只聽模式參與。今天公佈的某些資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的總體經濟和競爭狀況。風險和不確定性概述已在提交給美國證券交易委員會的定期報告中進行了更詳細的描述。如需了解更多信息，請訪問 paccar.com 的投資者關係頁面，查看我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

I would now like to introduce Ron Armstrong.

現在我來介紹羅恩·阿姆斯特朗。

Good morning. Harrie Schippers, Preston Feight and I will update you on our excellent third quarter results. PACCAR's third quarter sales and Financial Services revenues were $5.8 billion, and third quarter net income was $545 million, a strong 9.5% after-tax return on revenue. Revenues were 14% higher and net income was 35% higher than the third quarter last year.

早安.哈利希珀斯、普雷斯頓費特和我將向大家報告我們第三季優異的業績。PACCAR 第三季銷售額和金融服務收入為 58 億美元，第三季淨收入為 5.45 億美元，稅後收入報酬率高達 9.5%。營收比去年第三季成長了 14%，淨利潤比去年第三季成長了 35%。

PACCAR's Truck Division's produced a record number of trucks in the third quarter and PACCAR Parts achieved 14% revenue growth compared to the third quarter last year. I am extremely proud of our 28,000 employees that have delivered the world's highest quality trucks, parts and financial services to our customers worldwide.

PACCAR卡車部門第三季生產了創紀錄數量的卡車，PACCAR零件部門的收入比去年第三季增加了14%。我為我們28,000名員工感到無比自豪，他們為全球客戶提供了世界上最高品質的卡車、零件和金融服務。

PACCAR delivered 47,800 trucks during the third quarter, 3% higher than the second quarter. Increased build rates in North America were partially offset by fewer build days in Europe due to DAF's regular summer shutdown.

PACCAR 第三季交付了 47,800 輛卡車，比第二季增加了 3%。由於 DAF 夏季定期停工，歐洲的生產天數減少，部分抵消了北美生產速度的增加。

Truck and Parts' gross margins were 14.1% in the third quarter. Truck pricing was good with price realization comparable to the second quarter at about 3%. Costs were impacted by parts shortages from a small number of North American suppliers, including a few affected by Hurricane Florence. As a result of these part shortages, we incurred additional material and labor costs. Our Tier 1 suppliers are investing in additional capacity and working closely with Tier 2 suppliers to meet PACCAR factory delivery requirements. We expect the situation to normalize in the near term.

卡車及零件業務第三季的毛利率為 14.1%。卡車定價良好，實際價格與第二季持平，約 3%。成本受到北美少數供應商零件短缺的影響，其中一些供應商也受到了颶風弗洛倫斯的影響。由於零件短缺，我們產生了額外的材料和人工成本。我們的一級供應商正在投資增加產能，並與二級供應商密切合作，以滿足 PACCAR 工廠的交付要求。我們預計情況將在短期內恢復正常。

Our Peterbilt and Kenworth teams in the U.S., Canada and Mexico did a fantastic job of managing record third quarter production and achieving the highest operating margins in the industry.

我們在美國、加拿大和墨西哥的彼得比爾特和肯沃斯團隊出色地完成了第三季創紀錄的生產管理工作，並實現了業界最高的營運利潤率。

In the fourth quarter, we're expecting 4% to 8% higher deliveries compared to the third quarter, primarily due to an increase in the number of production days in Europe and higher daily build rates. Truck and Parts gross margins are estimated to be higher in the fourth quarter at around 14.5%.

預計第四季交付量將比第三季成長 4% 至 8%，主要原因是歐洲生產天數增加和每日生產速度提高。預計第四季卡車及零件業務的毛利率將有所上升，約為 14.5%。

Preston Feight will now provide an update on DAF, PACCAR Parts and PACCAR Financial Services.

Preston Feight 將帶來 DAF、PACCAR Parts 和 PACCAR Financial Services 的最新情況介紹。

Thanks, Ron. Our 2018 forecast is for Europe's greater than 16-tonne market to be in the range of 310,000 to 320,000 units, reflecting continued strong demand and growing European economies. We expect 2019 to be another excellent year, with the market in the range of 290,000 to 320,000 trucks.

謝謝你，羅恩。我們預測，2018 年歐洲 16 噸以上卡車市場銷量將在 31 萬至 32 萬輛之間，這反映了持續強勁的需求和歐洲經濟的成長。我們預計 2019 年將是另一個好年頭，市場規模將在 29 萬輛至 32 萬輛卡車之間。

The eurozone's GDP growth expectation for this year is 2%, with 2019 projected at a similar level. Freight transport activity on German highways is at record levels, up 3.5% this year. DAF has had an incredible year in 2018. DAF XF and CF trucks, which were honored as international truck of the year 2018, achieved European above 16-tonne market share of 16.6% year-to-date compared to 15.1% in the same period last year. DAF is making great progress towards its goal of 20% share.

歐元區今年的GDP成長預期為2%，預計2019年也將維持類似水準。德國高速公路的貨運活動達到創紀錄水平，今年成長了3.5%。DAF在2018年取得了令人矚目的成就。DAF XF 和 CF 卡車榮獲 2018 年國際年度卡車稱號，今年迄今在歐洲 16 噸以上卡車市場份額達到 16.6%，而去年同期為 15.1%。DAF正朝著20%的市佔率目標取得巨大進展。

PACCAR's Parts business generated strong quarterly revenues of $960 million, 14% higher than the same period last year. Parts' quarterly pretax income was $189 million, 24% higher than last year. The growing number of PACCAR trucks and engines in operation and consistent investments in parts distribution capacity and customer focus technologies drove these results. We are pleased to have opened our new 160,000 square-foot parts distribution center in Toronto this month. We expect part sales to grow an additional 5% to 8% next year.

PACCAR 的零件業務季度營收強勁，達到 9.6 億美元，比去年同期成長 14%。Parts公司季度稅前收入為1.89億美元，比去年增長24%。PACCAR 卡車和引擎投入營運的數量不斷增加，以及對零件分銷能力和以客戶為中心的技術的持續投資，推動了這些成果的取得。我們很高興本月在多倫多開設了新的 160,000 平方英尺的零件配送中心。我們預計明年零件銷售額將再成長 5% 至 8%。

PACCAR Financial Services' third quarter pretax income increased 12% to $79 million compared to $71 million a year ago. The portfolio, which was a record $14.1 billion this quarter, continued to perform well. Kenworth and Peterbilt Class 8 used truck values increased more than 10% compared to the third quarter of last year. Kenworth and Peterbilt truck resale values commanded 10% to 20% premium over competitors' vehicles.

PACCAR金融服務公司第三季稅前營收成長12%，達到7,900萬美元，去年同期為7,100萬美元。該投資組合本季規模達到創紀錄的 141 億美元，並持續表現良好。與去年第三季相比，肯沃斯和彼得比爾特8級二手卡車的價格上漲了10%以上。Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 卡車的轉售價格比競爭對手的車輛高出 10% 到 20%。

PACCAR Parts and PACCAR Financial Services profit contributions are much larger than they were 15 years ago. These businesses are inherently less cyclical than the sale of new trucks, and their consistent profitability enhances PACCAR's financial results throughout the business cycle.

PACCAR Parts 和 PACCAR Financial Services 的利潤貢獻比 15 年前大得多。這些業務的周期性波動性本質上低於新卡車的銷售，而且它們持續的盈利能力提升了 PACCAR 在整個商業週期中的財務表現。

Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on Kenworth, and Peterbilt, and PACCAR investments.

哈里·希珀斯接下來將介紹肯沃斯、彼得比爾特和帕卡集團的投資情況。

Thanks, Preston. We have raised our estimate of retail sales for this year's U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck market to a range of 280,000 to 290,000 units. In 2019, we expect the U.S. and Canada Class 8 truck market to expand further, to a range of 280,000 to 310,000 vehicles.

謝謝你，普雷斯頓。我們已將今年美國和加拿大 8 級卡車市場的零售銷售預期上調至 28 萬至 29 萬輛。2019年，我們預計美國和加拿大的8級卡車市場將進一步擴張，達到28萬至31萬輛。

U.S. economic and freight indicators are very strong, with 3% GDP growth, and nearly 4% industrial production growth expected this year. Freight tonnage growth has been a robust 7.5% year-to-date. We head into 2019 with great momentum, including the industry's best products and factory visibility that extends into the second half of next year.

美國經濟和貨運指標非常強勁，預計今年GDP成長3%，工業生產成長近4%。今年迄今為止，貨運噸位成長強勁，達到 7.5%。我們帶著強勁的發展勢頭進入 2019 年，擁有業內最好的產品，工廠的生產情況也將持續到明年下半年。

The record truck orders this year are driven by a strong economy. In the past, the surge in orders was often driven by a prebuy related to an emissions change. Customers across all segments are experiencing strong demand from growing freight volume, very high fleet utilization and strong pricing. Customers are also benefiting from the industry-leading operating efficiency provided by DAF, Peterbilt and Kenworth trucks as well as superior aftermarket support from PACCAR Parts and PACCAR Financial Services.

今年創紀錄的卡車訂單是由強勁的經濟推動的。過去，訂單激增往往是由與排放變化相關的預購行為所推動的。各個細分市場的客戶都感受到了貨運量成長、車隊利用率極高以及價格走強帶來的強勁需求。客戶還可以享受 DAF、Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 卡車提供的業界領先的營運效率，以及 PACCAR Parts 和 PACCAR Financial Services 提供的卓越售後支援。

PACCAR is creating innovative products and technologies for the future. DAF showcased several advanced powertrain vehicles at the IAA Truck Show last month. The DAF CF Electric, LF Electric and CF hybrid trucks are entering field testing with customers. We look forward to customer demands for electric and hybrid powertrains in certain applications such as refuse, urban delivery and forward operations. Longer term, electric vehicles will be competitive in more applications.

PACCAR 正在為未來創造創新產品和技術。DAF 上個月在 IAA 卡車展上展示了多款先進的動力總成車輛。DAF CF Electric、LF Electric 和 CF 混合動力卡車正在進入客戶現場測試階段。我們期待客戶在某些應用領域（例如垃圾處理、城市配送和前線作業）對電動和混合動力系統提出需求。從長遠來看，電動車將在更多應用領域具有競爭力。

While we are preparing for the long-term by making investments in alternative powertrain technologies, we do expect diesel to remain the most efficient powertrain technology in heavy truck applications for the foreseeable future.

雖然我們正在透過投資替代動力系統技術來為長期發展做準備，但我們預計在可預見的未來，柴油仍將是重型卡車應用中最有效的動力系統技術。

We estimate capital spending of $425 million to $475 million, and R&D expenses of $300 million to $310 million this year. In 2019, we are planning for increased capital investments of $525 million to $575 million, and increased R&D expenses of $300 million to $330 million. These investments will develop the next generation of Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF trucks, enhance PACCAR's diesel and alternative powertrain technologies, and add additional capacity and efficiency to the company's manufacturing and parts distribution facilities.

我們預計今年的資本支出為 4.25 億美元至 4.75 億美元，研發支出為 3 億美元至 3.1 億美元。2019年，我們計畫增加資本投資5.25億美元至5.75億美元，增加研發支出3億美元至3.3億美元。這些投資將用於開發下一代 Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 卡車，增強 PACCAR 的柴油和替代動力系統技術，並為公司的製造和零件分銷設施增加額外的產能和效率。

During the third quarter, we repurchased $59 million of PACCAR stock. With $241 million remaining of the $300 million authorization approved by the PACCAR board in July.

第三季度，我們回購了價值 5,900 萬美元的 PACCAR 股票。PACCAR 董事會 7 月批准的 3 億美元授權中，還剩下 2.41 億美元。

Thank you. We'd be pleased to answer your questions.

謝謝。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Joel Tiss with BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Joel Tiss。

So can you just explain, maybe philosophically, the gap between very strong truck shipments and the driver shortages? And is that kind of setting up cancellations in the future? Or how are all these fleets absorbing all these new trucks?

那麼，您能否從哲學角度解釋一下，為什麼卡車運輸量龐大卻面臨司機短缺的問題？那是不是在為未來的取消做準備呢？或者說，這些車隊是如何消化所有這些新卡車的？

I think they're -- the number of trucks is -- it's not at sort of the historical peak levels, but it's strong and they're getting the increased operating efficiency. And we've seen -- there's additional demand. We've seen more used trucks also being sold, and the utilization of the fleets now are at record levels, so they really show no issues of being able to absorb the trucks. And I think what we hear is that there would be even more trucks purchased if there were drivers to put in the seats.

我認為卡車的數量——雖然還沒有達到歷史最高水平，但仍然強勁，而且它們的運作效率也在不斷提高。我們已經看到——還有額外的需求。我們看到二手卡車的銷量也有所增加，而且車隊的利用率現在達到了創紀錄的水平，所以他們確實沒有消化這些卡車的問題。我覺得我們聽到的意思是，如果卡車有司機駕駛，那麼卡車的銷售量還會更高。

And then, can you just, like, help us maybe look forward a little bit? And there's some new emissions standards coming, and then, there's a particle emission standard coming in 2023. Is there enough sort of advancements and changes that are likely to come, say, over the next 5 years, to kind of keep the run rate of truck demand at a higher level? Or do you think the normal cyclicality that we see, especially in North America, is going to be more the way that the next 5 years look?

然後，您能不能幫我們稍微展望一下未來呢？而且，一些新的排放標準即將出台，此外，2023 年還將推出粒狀物排放標準。未來五年內，是否會出現足夠的進步和變化，使卡車需求保持在較高的運行速度？或者您認為我們目前看到的正常週期性波動，尤其是在北美地區，會是未來五年更常見的趨勢嗎？

I think the capability of engines for the last couple of iterations has been to improve fuel efficiency, which translates into lower total operating costs for our customers, and that won't change. As we look forward, we have greenhouse gas reductions in 2021, 2024, and 2027 in North America. Europe is close to proposing some limitations beginning in 2025 and 2030. So we're going to continue to innovate and improve the efficiency of the diesel engines for the foreseeable future. In addition, obviously, we're working on alternative powertrains and those will be attractive for certain applications, which I think, Harrie mentioned those in his comments, that applications like refuse, port, et cetera, there could be a reasonable business case for those particular applications.

我認為，最近幾代引擎的性能提升主要體現在提高燃油效率上，從而降低客戶的總營運成本，這一點不會改變。展望未來，北美地區在 2021 年、2024 年和 2027 年都將減少溫室氣體排放。歐洲即將提出一些限制措施，分別從 2025 年和 2030 年開始實施。因此，在可預見的未來，我們將繼續創新並提高柴油引擎的效率。此外，顯然，我們正在研究替代動力系統，這些動力系統對於某些應用來說將很有吸引力，我認為，哈里在他的評論中也提到了這些應用，例如垃圾處理、港口等，這些特定應用可能具有合理的商業價值。

And then, sorry, just last one. So do you think that those forces are strong enough to be able to change the shape of the historic cycle? Or it's not a fair question?

然後，抱歉，就最後一個了。那你認為這些力量是否強大到足以改變歷史週期的走向？或者說，這個問題本身就不公平？

I think, in the past, the cycles, we're very much focused on soot and NOx emissions with no benefits for our customers. So future cycles or future emission legislation is all about greenhouse gas reduction. So yes, there will be cost increases for a new technology to be added, but it brings a benefit for our customers to enjoy.

我認為，在過去的周期中，我們非常關注煙塵和氮氧化物排放，但這並沒有為我們的客戶帶來任何好處。因此，未來的能源週期或未來的排放法規都將圍繞著減少溫室氣體排放。所以，是的，引入新技術會增加成本，但它會為我們的客戶帶來好處。

Your next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

Can you folks talk about where the supply base stands today in terms of catching up with the really robust order cycle we've had? And at which point do you expect industry lead times to try to stabilize and maybe start to come down towards your historical target, 10- to 12-week lead times?

各位能否談談目前供應鏈的狀況，看看能否跟上我們最近強勁的訂單週期？您預期產業交貨週期何時會趨於穩定，並可能開始向您以往的目標（10 至 12 週的交貨週期）靠攏？

I think, from my perspective, the supply base is making progress. As I mentioned, they're making some investments, working with all levels of the supply base Tier 1, Tier 2. The Hurricane Florence, we have a couple of suppliers who are located in the Carolinas. And unfortunately, due to the time they had to take to shut down, and some of the impacts of floods, et cetera, that had an impact. And so we're working through each one of those, and we're -- as I said, we expect in the near term, we'll work through those. I had a discussion with one of our suppliers yesterday. A good discussion, good healthy discussion, and so everybody's got the same interest at heart. And so we'll work through it, probably, during this quarter.

我認為，從我的角度來看，供應鏈正在取得進展。正如我所提到的，他們正在進行一些投資，與一級、二級供應商等各個層級的供應鏈企業合作。颶風「弗洛倫斯」期間，我們有幾家供應商位於卡羅來納州。不幸的是，由於停業需要時間，以及洪水等因素的影響，造成了一定程度的損失。所以我們正在逐一解決這些問題，而且——正如我所說，我們預計在短期內，我們將解決這些問題。我昨天和我們的一位供應商進行了討論。一場好的討論，一場健康的討論，讓大家真正關心彼此的利益。所以，我們可能會在本季解決這個問題。

And so from a margin standpoint, you folks had margin in the high 14% range at the gross margin line in the first half of '18. Once you work through those supply-chain issues, can you get back towards that level of gross margin performance that we saw in the first half of this year, before the supply chain issues start to play out?

因此，從利潤率的角度來看，你們在 2018 年上半年的毛利率達到了 14% 以上。一旦解決了這些供應鏈問題，能否恢復到今年上半年供應鏈問題出現之前我們所看到的毛利率水準？

Yes. I think, with -- certainly, the possibility is there, Jerry.

是的。我認為，當然，這種可能性是存在的，傑瑞。

Okay. And then, your retail market share is up significantly in Europe. Can you just give us a sense for where your order market share is tracking? Is that retail momentum set to continue based on how the orders look heading into the fourth quarter?

好的。而且，您在歐洲的零售市佔率也大幅成長。能否簡單介紹一下貴公司的訂單市佔率狀況？根據第四季的訂單情況來看，零售業的這種成長動能是否會持續？

We don't get order market data. We only know what we have done. The DAF order percentage has been strong this year with year-over-year increases. And so we had ended next year with a good solid backlog and expect to be able to continue at our current pace for the -- at least for the near term.

我們無法取得訂單市場數據。我們只知道自己做了什麼。今年DAF的訂單佔比表現強勁，較去年同期成長。因此，到第二年年底，我們累積了相當可觀的訂單儲備，並預計能夠以目前的速度繼續保持下去——至少在短期內如此。

And lastly, can you talk about how -- a significant known input, the supply bases from China for your sourcing strategy. And whether we should expect a pickup in inflation in early '19 as the tariffs move to 25% from 10%?

最後，您能否談談—一個重要的已知因素，即來自中國的供應基地，是如何納入您的採購策略的？隨著關稅從 10% 提高到 25%，我們是否應該預期 2019 年初通貨膨脹會加劇？

Yes. Our team has done a good job of evaluating the impacts of tariffs and other trade arrangements. And I would tell you the effect is hundreds of dollars per truck, and so it's not a major item, but it's something, obviously, that just like other cost increases that -- where we manage that into our costing and pricing projections, and work with that with our customers on quotes for future deliveries.

是的。我們的團隊在評估關稅和其他貿易安排的影響方面做得很好。我可以告訴你，每輛卡車的成本會增加數百美元，所以這不是什麼大事，但顯然，就像其他成本增加一樣，我們會將其納入成本核算和定價預測中，並與客戶一起為未來的交付提供報價。

Your next question comes from Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的安·杜伊尼安。

I have to dig in, find a few questions remaining. Can you talk a little bit about -- we had heard during the quarter that a lot of dealers were ordering for inventory because lead times were extending, not necessarily PACCAR's dealers, although one of them was a PACCAR -- a Kenworth dealer. Can you talk a little bit about where your dealer inventories are versus, maybe, historical norm? And is there any risk that they are ordering to inventory, and that, that could cause a significant downturn when the market rolls over?

我得深入挖掘，找出一些遺留下來的問題。您能否談談——我們在本季度聽說，許多經銷商都在訂購庫存，因為交貨時間延長了，不一定是 PACCAR 的經銷商，儘管其中一家是 PACCAR 的經銷商——肯沃斯經銷商。能否談談貴公司經銷商的庫存情況，並與歷史平均值進行比較？他們是否有可能為了囤積庫存而下單，導致市場低迷時出現大幅下滑？

No. We're really in good shape dealer inventory-wise. We -- I think, we comment, historically, that if we're in the 60-day range in terms of inventory, plus or minus, and that's right where we're at in North America as well as in Europe. So the dealer inventories are in excellent shape as we sit here today.

不。就經銷商庫存而言，我們的狀況非常好。我們——我認為，根據歷史經驗，如果我們庫存處於 60 天左右的範圍內，正負誤差，而這正是我們在北美和歐洲的現狀。所以，就目前而言，經銷商的庫存狀況非常良好。

Okay. That's good to hear. I appreciate that. And then, specifically, on the margin -- gross margin for Q4. I know once you get all these supply chain issues resolved, that the probability is that as long as volumes are, gross margins will go back to the 14.5% to 15%. But specifically, for Q4, should we anticipate that supply chain issues will still weigh on gross margins?

好的。聽到這個消息真好。我很感激。然後，具體來說，是關於利潤率——第四季度的毛利率。我知道一旦所有這些供應鏈問題得到解決，只要銷量保持穩定，毛利率很可能會回到 14.5% 到 15% 的水平。但具體到第四季度，我們是否應該預期供應鏈問題仍將對毛利率造成壓力？

Yes. At this point, we think something around 14.5% is probably a reasonable expectation for the fourth quarter.

是的。目前，我們認為第四季14.5%左右的成長率可能是合理的預期。

Your next question comes from Alex Potter with Piper Jaffray.

下一個問題來自 Alex Potter 和 Piper Jaffray。

I was wondering if you could comment, there's been a couple of announcements recently. I'm sure you're aware of FDR catalyst and things of this nature degrading over time. Just wanted to see what your confidence is that there won't be any charges coming from PACCAR projecting similar issues.

我想問您是否可以發表一下看法，最近發布了一些公告。我相信您也知道FDR催化劑以及類似的東西會隨著時間而退化。我只是想了解一下，您對PACCAR不會提出類似指控的信心有多大。

Yes. We're not aware of a similar deterioration effect in our aftertreatment, but that's subject to ongoing testing, and there's no assurance, but at this point, we're -- we feel good about our approach and our -- the chemistry that we've used in our aftertreatment system.

是的。我們目前尚未發現後處理過程中存在類似的惡化效應，但這需要持續測試，目前還不能保證，但就目前而言，我們對我們的方法以及我們在後處理系統中使用的化學物質感到滿意。

Okay. It's good to hear. Tax rate was a bit low in the quarter. Just wondering if you could provide any guidance regarding what we should be modeling for the next quarter and year, I guess.

好的。聽到這個消息真好。本季稅率略低。我想問您能否就我們下一季和下一年度的建模方向提供一些指導。

I think Michael can address that, yes.

我認為邁克爾可以回答這個問題，是的。

Yes. We had a couple of positive onetime items in the quarter that we don't expect to repeat. So you should expect a range of 22% to 23% going forward.

是的。本季我們有一些一次性的利多因素，我們預計這些因素不會再次出現。因此，預計未來一段時間內，這一比例將在 22% 到 23% 之間。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then, last one, I guess, if you could just comment on -- you mentioned that the portfolio is still doing really well with the FinCo. Used vehicle pricing is doing okay, it looks like. If you could just provide, maybe, a crystal ball over the next year. We've got a changing interest rate environment. Any commentary you might give around the likely performance of that segment would be helpful.

好的。那很有幫助。最後，我想問最後一個問題——您提到該投資組合在 FinCo 方面仍然表現良好。二手車價格看起來還不錯。如果你能提供未來一年的水晶球就好了。利率環境正在改變。如果您能就該板塊的可能表現發表任何評論，將不勝感激。

Yes. As long as the freight demand is there, and we're at record levels of freight activity in both North America and Europe, that, obviously, provides a great opportunity for our customers to earn a profit. And we're seeing that. The past dues continue to be at about 50 basis points, really historical low levels. So there's nothing that we see in the near term that is going to impact the performance of the portfolio. We've -- our teams continue to exercise very prudent credit underwriting and taking advantage of data analytics tools to continue to enhance that capability on the way forward.

是的。只要貨運需求存在，而北美和歐洲的貨運活動都達到了創紀錄的水平，這顯然為我們的客戶提供了巨大的獲利機會。我們已經看到了這一點。過去的欠款額仍維持在 50 個基點左右，這確實是歷史低點。因此，我們預期近期內不會有任何事情會影響投資組合的表現。我們的團隊將繼續秉持非常謹慎的信貸承銷原則，並利用數據分析工具不斷提升這項能力。

Your next question comes from Seth Weber with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的塞思‧韋伯。

This is Brendan on for Seth. Just going back to your dealer inventories. Are you doing anything, extra vetting or anything like that, to discourage any double ordering there?

這裡是布倫丹替塞思報道。我只是回到你們經銷商的庫存清單。你們有沒有採取任何措施，例如額外的審核或其他類似措施，來防止重複訂購的情況？

No. We monitor the level of order intake for customer orders or stock orders. And so our divisions are very adept at sort of managing that and ensuring that what we have in the backlog is buildable to the best extent that we can.

不。我們會監控客戶訂單或庫存訂單的訂單接收量。因此，我們各個部門都非常擅長管理這些工作，並確保我們積壓的工作能夠盡可能實現。

And the other thing we're doing is we're making sure that the customers are putting deposits down on vehicles so that we understand the relationship to the customers well enough to know when it's a serious order or not a serious order. So we're carefully managing the firmness of the backlog.

我們還要做的另一件事是確保客戶支付車輛定金，以便我們充分了解與客戶的關係，從而知道這是一筆認真的訂單還是一筆不認真的訂單。所以我們正在謹慎地控制積壓訂單的穩定性。

Okay. And I apologize if I missed this, but could you give a color on your outlook for the Brazilian market? And what's happening with your market share there?

好的。如果我錯過了什麼，請您見諒，您能否談談您對巴西市場的看法？你們在那裡的市佔率情況如何？

Yes. The market share continues to tick up. We've progressively increased build rates throughout this year. We have one more increase coming in the month of December. And so we're going to deliver about 2,300 trucks this year, and that the build rate that we'll end this year, there's no reason at this point to say that, that won't progress. We'll probably deliver over 3,000 trucks next year. And so from a market perspective, Ken, you have some thoughts?

是的。市佔率持續小幅上升。今年以來，我們的生產速度一直在逐步提高。12月份我們還會再漲一次價。因此，我們今年將交付約 2300 輛卡車，而且我們今年的生產速度，目前沒有任何理由說它不會繼續推進。我們明年可能會交付超過3000輛卡車。那麼，肯，從市場角度來看，你有什麼想法嗎？

Yes, I do. So for 2018, the above 16-tonne truck market, we expect to be 45,000 to 55,000 vehicles. And next year, we're expecting 60,000 to 70,000 vehicles.

是的，我願意。因此，我們預計 2018 年 16 噸以上卡車市場銷量將達到 45,000 至 55,000 輛。明年，我們預計將有 6 萬至 7 萬輛汽車上市。

Your next question comes from Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自富國證券的安迪凱西。

Just wanted to take your temperature, the really strong order intake that we've seen, how far into 2019 are your lead times? We're hearing some of the products are quite extended. And if we assume supply chain normalization occurs, how quickly do you think some of those lead times can be reduced?

想了解你們的情況，鑑於我們目前非常強勁的訂單量，你們2019年的交貨週期安排是多久？我們聽說有些產品的使用壽命相當長。如果我們假設供應鏈恢復正常，您認為其中一些交貨週期可以多快縮短？

The backlog is extended. It's longer than it has been for some time. And as we always do, we work closely with our suppliers to manage their capabilities, our capabilities, so that we get the right support of our customers and we can meet their delivery needs. So it's the clarity of sort of how that progresses is a little bit fuzzy at this point, but I suspect supply base will continue to improve its capability to deliver in the coming months, for sure.

積壓工作量增加。比之前一段時間都要長。和以往一樣，我們與供應商密切合作，管理他們的能力和我們自身的能力，以便獲得客戶的正確支持，並滿足他們的交付需求。所以目前來看，事情的發展走向還不太明朗，但我相信，未來幾個月，供應鏈的交付能力肯定會繼續提高。

Okay. And I think it may have been Preston talking about deposits for orders to manage the firmness of the backlog. Is that something PACCAR has done in the past?

好的。我認為那可能是普雷斯頓在談論訂單定金，以控制積壓訂單的穩定性。PACCAR過去有做過類似的事嗎？

Yes. We do some of that. And then, we also -- there's a cancellation policy that we put into effect, that cancellation fee that is there to require that the orders are buildable and more firm.

是的。我們也會做一些這樣的事。此外，我們還實施了一項取消政策，收取取消費，目的是確保訂單具有可行性和確定性。

Okay. And then, just on pricing, first, on Truck then on Parts. Are the orders -- given that you've taken deposits and you have that cancellation fee, are the orders in backlog price protected? Or for some of these orders that are way out, can you actually increase prices?

好的。然後，就價格而言，首先是卡車，然後是零件。考慮到你們已經收取了訂金並且有取消費用，積壓訂單的價格是否受到保護？或者對於一些交貨期較長的訂單，你們真的可以提高價格嗎？

We typically -- we've got a commitment at a price. We've factored in our best estimate of what we think future costs are going to look like when we deliver those trucks. And so we have a pretty good feel about what we think the realization will be when we deliver those trucks.

我們通常會——我們會付出代價來做出承諾。我們已經將我們對交付這些卡車時未來成本的最佳估計考慮在內。因此，我們對交付這些卡車後可能取得的成果已經有了相當清晰的認識。

We have the pricing in place for the first half of next year, for North America. And like we said, the backlog is already extending into the second half of next year. So with debt pricing, cancellation fees, we feel pretty confident that dealers will only put in those orders that they really need.

我們已經制定了明年上半年北美地區的定價方案。正如我們所說，積壓的工作已經持續到明年下半年了。因此，考慮到債務定價和取消費用，我們相當有信心經銷商只會下他們真正需要的訂單。

Okay. And then, skipping over to Parts. I mean, the tariff impact, if it's going to impact anything, maybe it's there, but should we think about any increases that you may see within the Parts portfolio? Should we expect that just to be offset by pricing? And if so, how much of the -- I believe, I heard 5% to 8% growth in 2019 is unit volume?

好的。然後，直接跳到「部分」部分。我的意思是，關稅的影響，如果它會產生任何影響，也許確實存在，但我們是否應該考慮零部件組合中可能出現的任何增長？我們是否應該預期價格上漲會抵銷這種影響？如果屬實，那麼2019年5%到8%的成長中，有多少是銷量成長呢？

Yes. I'd say most of that is unit volume growth, and our teams -- I'd look very closely at the components that are affected by tariffs and manage that. And our expectation is, generally, that will be passed on to the market.

是的。我認為其中大部分是銷售成長，而我們的團隊——我會密切關注受關稅影響的組成部分並加以管理。我們預計，這種情況通常會反映在市場上。

Your next question comes from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的傑米庫克。

I guess, a couple of questions. One, obviously, the market is very concerned that Truck is peaking, the stocks are pricing that in, and then, you made the comment earlier, people probably underappreciate your Parts contribution, et cetera. So is there any way you can help us frame as you're thinking about sort of potentially the next downturn in earnings? What are the factors that would allow PACCAR to contribute -- I'm sorry, to earn up higher trough relative to where we were? And how you think about share repurchase in that context, just given where your stock is today versus your view on the market?

我想問幾個問題。顯然，第一，市場非常擔心卡車市場已經達到頂峰，股票價格已經反映了這一點；第二，正如你之前提到的，人們可能低估了你在零件領域的貢獻等等。那麼，在您思考下一次獲利下滑的可能性時，您能否幫我們分析一下？哪些因素能讓 PACCAR 做出貢獻——抱歉，我是說，讓 PACCAR 的收益比我們之前的水平更高？那麼，考慮到您目前的股票價格以及您對市場的看法，您如何看待股票回購？

Yes. I think our factories, we continue to make investments in our facilities to improve efficiency. You've been to our factories. You know the efficiency that we have in our factories and we continue to try and move the needle to manage -- our cost is the -- the lowest cost manufacturer during all phases of the cycle. So that doesn't change, and we'll continue to make those investments. Obviously, the lower tax rate has a significant incremental effect on earnings versus a 31% rate historically versus a 22% to 23% rate. Currently, that changes a little bit depending on where the earnings come from, but that's a significant enhancement from what we've seen historically. Parts and finance are making sizable contributions to the profitability of our operations. So we excel during the cycles, and we will continue to excel. We can manage our cost structure better than anybody in the industry.

是的。我認為，為了提高效率，我們會繼續投資我們的工廠設施。您去過我們的工廠。您知道我們工廠的效率，我們將繼續努力提高效率，以控製成本——在整個生產週期中，我們的成本是最低的製造商。所以這一點不會改變，我們會繼續進行這些投資。顯然，與歷史上 31% 的稅率相比，較低的稅率對收入有顯著的增量影響，而 22% 至 23% 的稅率則不然。目前，這種情況會根據收入來源略有變化，但這與我們過去所看到的相比，是一個顯著的進步。零件和財務部門對我們營運的獲利能力做出了巨大貢獻。因此，我們在周期性波動中表現出色，並將繼續表現出色。我們比業界任何人都更能有效地控製成本結構。

Okay. And then, just when you talk about -- I know you have fairly good visibility extending into beyond the second half of 2019 or whatever. I mean, is that fairly broad-based, small versus large fleets or occasional? Can you just talk about if it's broad-based or specific to sort of one type of customer?

好的。然後，就在你談到——我知道你對2019年下半年之後的情況有相當不錯的預期。我的意思是，這是相當廣泛的、小型艦隊與大型艦隊之間的對比，還是偶爾發生的對比？您能談談它是面向廣泛客戶群，還是僅針對某一類特定客戶嗎？

Yes. It is broad based. I mean, obviously, the fleets are probably better at getting their orders in earlier, and there's probably some smaller guys that will come. And so -- but our teams are closely managing backlog to make sure that we meet the needs of all of our customers from small to -- so the smallest to the biggest.

是的。它的基礎很廣泛。我的意思是，很顯然，大型艦隊可能更擅長提前下訂單，而且可能還會有一些規模較小的公司加入。因此——但我們的團隊正在密切管理積壓工作，以確保我們滿足所有客戶的需求，無論大小。

Your next question comes from Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的史蒂夫沃克曼。

Most of my questions have been answered, but I wonder if you have a sense of the supplier issues that you saw in the quarter. Any broad sense of what that might have impacted your gross margin?

我的大部分問題都已得到解答，但我不知道您是否了解本季遇到的供應商問題。您認為這可能會對您的毛利率產生哪些影響？

It's one of those deals that it's really tough to -- there are some things you can quantify specifically. Others are a little bit vague. But I would guess, probably, 50 basis points would be the effect of -- on overall margin for the third quarter. And so yes, it was significant. Our teams did a great job, sort of managing the schedule and managing the offline flow in our factories. And we're still managing through that, but I think we're seeing our way to the end of the tunnel.

這是那種很難量化的交易之一——有些事情是可以具體量化的。其他的則有些含糊不清。但我估計，對第三季整體利潤率的影響可能為 50 個基點。所以，是的，這意義重大。我們的團隊做得非常出色，並很好地管理了工廠的進度安排和離線流程。我們仍在努力克服困難，但我認為我們正在看到隧道盡頭的曙光。

Okay. Super. And then as we look out into 2019, and even though maybe people are starting to think about what a downturn would look like, it seems like the 2019 outlook is actually up a bit. And I'm curious how you think we should think about profitability. Can you grow gross margin with a little more volume? And maybe a little last supplier issues and so forth? Or should we think more in the sense of gross margins being kind of flat, and then, you'll lever on SG&A?

好的。極好的。展望 2019 年，儘管人們可能開始思考經濟衰退會是什麼樣子，但 2019 年的前景似乎實際上略有改善。我很想知道您認為我們應該如何看待獲利能力。銷量稍有成長就能提高毛利率嗎？或許還有一些供應商的問題等等？或者我們應該多考慮毛利率基本持平的情況，然後透過提高銷售、管理及行政費用來提高利潤率？

I think all those things are possible, and so as we think about next year, something probably in the 14% to 15% range for overall total gross margin is sort of where our heads are at currently.

我認為所有這些事情都有可能，所以當我們考慮明年時，我們目前的目標可能是整體毛利率在 14% 到 15% 之間。

Your next question comes from Steven Fisher with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

Just a couple of questions on Europe. Can you give us a little more color on the European region? Curious what your order trends are looking like if we segment the Europe into Eastern Europe, Continental, Western and then U.K.?

關於歐洲，我還有幾個問題。能再詳細介紹一下歐洲地區的情況嗎？想知道如果我們把歐洲細分為東歐、歐洲大陸、西歐和英國，你們的訂單趨勢會是什麼樣的呢？

Sure. Just talking about Europe for a second, the 16.6% share is, again, a record. Where we're seeing growth is pretty uniform. We're seeing growth throughout. We've -- a couple of points, we've become the leading import brand in Germany, which is roughly 20% of the European markets. So that's a nice accomplishment by the team in Europe. We're also seeing Eastern Europe grow as an even more important part of the sector and DAF is very strong there. We're a market leader in several countries in Eastern Europe, with growing share year-over-year, sometimes 2% to 3%, and 4%. So as the total of Europe evolves and matures, DAF is really well positioned for strong growth in the future.

當然。就歐洲而言，16.6% 的份額再次創下紀錄。我們看到成長的地區分佈相當均勻。我們看到各方面都在成長。有幾點需要說明，我們已經成為德國領先的進口品牌，而德國約佔歐洲市場的 20%。所以這是歐洲隊取得的一項不錯的成績。我們也看到東歐正在發展成為該行業越來越重要的組成部分，而 DAF 在那裡實力非常強勁。我們在東歐幾個國家是市場領導者，市佔率逐年成長，有時達到 2% 到 3%，有時甚至達到 4%。隨著歐洲整體經濟的發展和成熟，DAF 已做好充分準備，在未來實現強勁成長。

And U.K.? If you could comment on that.

英國呢？如果您能就此發表一下意見就太好了。

Well, the U.K. We're the market leader in the U.K. We'll continue to be the market leader. Obviously, there's some dynamics in U.K. with general economy, but we continue to be strong in the U.K. as well, which is down as a percentage of the total market.

嗯，在英國，我們是市場領導者，我們將繼續保持市場領導者的地位。顯然，英國整體經濟存在一些波動，但我們在英國市場仍然保持強勁勢頭，儘管其佔整個市場的百分比有所下降。

Okay. And then, related to Brexit, how much of your European production would you say is in the U.K., maybe on a year-to-date basis? And how much is exported to Continental Europe? And if we ended up with a hard break scenario, what would you do to manage that? I mean, would you consider relocating any production?

好的。那麼，關於英國脫歐，您認為貴公司在歐洲的生產有多少是在英國進行的？最好能按今年迄今的數據來算。出口到歐洲大陸的數量是多少？如果真的出現非常糟糕的狀況，你會如何應對？我的意思是，你們會考慮搬遷任何生產環節嗎？

We have great flexibility, is one of our real strengths, is that we're able to produce a full range of products that we make in our factory in the U.K. at Leyland, which is something that was a unique advantage for us. So we can make those medium duties as well as all the heavy duties in the U.K. So we're well positioned for any kind of scenarios that would happen, hard or soft. And then, we have great, obviously, manufacturing capacities in our main plants at Eindhoven. So we're watching what's happening there, but we feel very well positioned.

我們擁有極大的靈活性，這是我們真正的優勢之一，因為我們能夠生產全系列產品，這些產品都是我們在英國萊蘭的工廠生產的，這對我們來說是一個獨特的優勢。因此，我們既可以承擔英國的中等關稅，也可以承擔所有重關稅。所以，無論發生什麼情況，無論是嚴峻的還是溫和的，我們都能很好地應對。此外，我們位於埃因霍溫的主要工廠顯然擁有強大的生產能力。所以我們正在密切關注那裡的局勢，但我們感覺自己處於非常有利的位置。

Yes. We -- when I was over there several weeks ago, Preston and I met with the team, and really a good discussion about what the range of outcomes could be. And so we're prepared to manage that, whatever the outcome might be.

是的。幾週前我去那裡的時候，我和普雷斯頓與球隊會面，就可能出現的各種結果進行了很好的討論。因此，無論結果如何，我們都做好了應對的準備。

Okay. I'll follow up there. Then, just one last clarification on the emissions degradation. Are you guys using the same suppliers that your European peer is -- that announced their issues?

好的。我會跟進此事。最後，關於排放惡化問題，還有一點需要澄清。你們使用的供應商和你們那家宣佈出現問題的歐洲同行一樣嗎？

No. No.

不。不。

Your next question comes from Ross Gilardi with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅斯·吉拉迪。

Ron, just had kind of a philosophical question. I mean, most of my questions have been answered. But -- look, I mean, PACCAR has been an outstanding stock over the long term, but in the last 5 years, you've had earnings double. You continue to establish all sorts of internal records. You've got an extremely robust cycle right now, and the stock is essentially flat, even if we ignored today's move. So what is the market missing about PACCAR? And does the stock performance influence how you look at the business or your strategy? More importantly, how do you drive value on the stock from here?

羅恩，我有個哲學方面的問題想問你。我的意思是，我的大部分問題都得到了解答。但是——你看，我的意思是，PACCAR 從長遠來看一直是一支非常優秀的股票，但在過去 5 年裡，你們的收益翻了一番。你繼續建立各種內部記錄。目前市場週期非常強勁，即使忽略今天的波動，股價也基本持平。那麼，市場對 PACCAR 的哪些方面有所誤解呢？股票表現是否會影響你對企業或策略的看法？更重要的是，從現在開始，你要如何提升股票的價值？

Well, I think we just continue to -- we're record truck deliveries, record truck revenues, record Parts revenues, record Financial Services portfolio. Our focus is to continue to grow the company and grow the earnings over the long term. And that will pay off eventually. You probably know more about why today is what it is in the market. It doesn't make any sense to us, but we're going to continue to focus on what we do, how we do it, and execute better than anybody in the industry.

我認為我們將繼續保持——卡車交付量、卡車收入、零件收入和金融服務組合均創歷史新高。我們的目標是持續發展公司，並在長期內實現獲利成長。最終會有回報的。你可能比我更了解如今市場現況背後的原因。我們覺得這毫無道理，但我們將繼續專注於我們所做的事情、我們做事情的方式，並力求比業內任何人都做得更好。

Got it. Okay. And then, just curious, anything in your North American business? I mean, you've seen the oil service companies talk about at least a temporary slowdown in the Permian. Are you seeing any slowdown at your Gulf Coast dealers at all, due to what's going on down there? Any granularity in order trends in that region?

知道了。好的。另外，我很好奇，您在北美的業務方面有什麼進展嗎？我的意思是，你已經看到石油服務公司談到二疊紀盆地至少會出現暫時的放緩。由於墨西哥灣沿岸地區發生的事情，您是否注意到當地經銷商的業績有所下滑？該地區的訂單趨勢有更細緻的分析嗎？

Ross, we've not seen anything like that. I mean, again, oil affects a small percentage of our total truck production and overall business. So it's not something that we monitor that closely, but I think the Peterbilt and Kenworth trucks, we have great customers in the oilfield, and we're continuing to see steady -- pretty steady demand, I think, from those customers, so not much impact. Oil prices have rebounded nicely, and so I think that bodes well for the midterm for that segment. And it also has a nice benefit for our winch business.

羅斯，我們從未見過這種情況。我的意思是，石油問題只影響我們卡車總產量和整體業務的一小部分。所以這不是我們密切關注的事情，但我認為彼得比爾特和肯沃斯卡車，我們在油田有很多很棒的客戶，而且我們繼續看到來自這些客戶穩定的需求——我認為相當穩定，所以影響不大。油價已經明顯反彈，所以我認為這對中期該行業來說是個好兆頭。而且這對我們的絞車業務也有好處。

Your next question comes from Courtney Yakavonis with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Courtney Yakavonis。

Just curious, obviously, you're working through some of these part shortages currently. But if we think about your guidance for next year or the industry guidance for North America, truck retail sales kind of coming in at the high end. What are the other bottlenecks we need to be thinking about in terms of getting your build rates higher to meet that increased level in demand that we could potentially see next year?

只是好奇問，顯然你們目前正在努力解決一些零件短缺的問題。但如果我們考慮您對明年的預測或北美地區的產業預測，卡車零售額預計將達到較高水準。為了提高你們的建設速度以滿足明年可能出現的需求成長，我們還需要考慮哪些其他瓶頸？

I think, right now, the suppliers are the pacing item. And we're -- again, we're working closely on additional investments, and that is the item that will make the difference for us.

我認為，目前供應商是關鍵因素。而且，我們正在密切關注額外的投資，這才是真正能為我們帶來改變的事情。

Okay. And just to make sure that I fully understand, the view is that is a near-term issue that will be fixed...

好的。為了確保我完全理解，大家的看法是，這是一個近期就能解決的問題…

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

By the end of the fourth quarter?

到第四季末？

That's our goal, for sure. And our suppliers -- we have great suppliers. And again, some were dealt some pretty difficult hands, with the hurricane affecting their operations. And so that's -- again, that's all temporary and can be worked through.

那當然是我們的目標。我們的供應商－我們擁有優秀的供應商。再次，一些企業遭遇了相當艱難的處境，颶風影響了他們的營運。所以，這些都是暫時的，可以解決的。

Okay. Great. And then, also just thinking about the pricing environment heading into next year, I believe you said this quarter was pretty similar to last quarter. Can you just give us any sense of kind of how you guys are thinking about the pricing environment?

好的。偉大的。另外，考慮到明年的定價環境，我相信您說過本季與上季非常相似。能否簡單介紹一下你們對定價環境的看法？

I would say steady. A lot of orders taken and negotiated with many of our customers. And so I think we feel good about the direction of pricing. It's fair and reasonable for the current market circumstances, so...

我覺得應該要保持穩定。我們接到了很多訂單，並與許多客戶進行了協商。所以我覺得我們對價格走勢感到滿意。就目前的市場情況而言，這是公平合理的，所以…

Your next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

Just quick question, really more for my modeling. I'm trying to understand why the deliveries were up 19%, but the Truck revenues were only up 14.5%. It's been a little while since the truck revenues were below the deliveries. So first of all, I'd say, well maybe the mix geographically, but really, your best growth rates were in some of the higher price point trucks, right, North America, Europe. Is there something within the mix of the size of the trucks, type of trucks that went out that would have the deliveries up that much more than the revenue growth you booked?

問個小問題，主要是為了我的建模工作。我正在努力理解為什麼送貨量增加了 19%，但卡車收入只增加了 14.5%。卡車收入低於送貨量的情況已經持續了一段時間。首先，我想說，或許從地理上來看，成長率確實更高，但實際上，成長率最高的還是一些價格較高的卡車，像是北美和歐洲的卡車。卡車的尺寸、卡車的類型等因素是否會導致送貨量比您預期的收入成長幅度大得多？

Yes. Michael has some thoughts that he can share on that.

是的。麥可對此有一些想法想跟大家分享。

Well, you'll probably notice that in Europe, our deliveries were up 14%, 15%, and truck revenues were down, and that's mostly due to we had more truck sales that were deferred because they're associated with guaranteed residual value contracts, which resulted in us deferring the sales and revenues over the term of the residual value guarantee. And so that just worked out this quarter to be in effect that was noticeable.

您可能已經注意到，在歐洲，我們的交付量增加了 14%、15%，而卡車收入卻下降了，這主要是因為我們有更多的卡車銷售被推遲，因為它們與有保證的殘值合約有關，這導致我們在殘值保證期限內推遲了銷售和收入。因此，本季所取得的成效是顯而易見的。

And there was -- was there a reason why it was greater? And maybe if you could help frame it for us a little bit, how much greater than normal the percent of trucks that went out in Europe with the deferred?

那麼，為什麼它更大呢？這其中有什麼原因嗎？或許您能幫我們稍微解釋一下，在歐洲，延期交付的卡車比例比正常情況高出多少？

Yes. I think -- typically, David, that's just really a function of the particular customers that you're doing business with at any particular quarter. Preston, do you have anything?

是的。我認為——通常情況下，David，這實際上取決於你在任何特定季度所與之做生意的特定客戶。普雷斯頓，你有什麼嗎？

Yes. I would just say it's the timing. And we've grown in the large fleets. We talked earlier in the call about fleet growth, Eastern Europe and DAF is doing a good job of making penetrations, and some of those large fleets come with GRBs. But largely, it's timing.

是的。我認為關鍵在於時機。而且我們的大型船隊規模也擴大了。我們在之前的電話會議中談到了機隊成長，東歐和 DAF 在滲透方面做得很好，其中一些大型機隊配備了 GRB。但主要還是時機問題。

Okay. So yes, so even when we were in Germany, right, the idea of your market share are higher in some of the Eastern European countries, some of the bigger logistical truck companies are the ones gaining share out of that region. This is reflective of that, essentially?

好的。所以，是的，即使我們在德國的時候，對吧，你們的市場份額在一些東歐國家更高，一些較大的物流卡車公司正在該地區獲得市場份額。這本質上反映了這一點？

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

I think you're starting to see that the DAF trucks in Europe, they have the best fuel economy, the lowest operating cost, and that's having the biggest fleets take a really good look at us, and we're winning share there.

我認為大家開始意識到，DAF 卡車在歐洲擁有最佳的燃油經濟性和最低的營運成本，這使得最大的車隊都在認真考慮我們，我們也正在贏得市場份額。

And one other element, currency, and I apologize, I jumped on late. Have you given the exact currency impact for the quarter?

還有一個因素是貨幣，很抱歉，我來得太晚了。你們是否已提供本季具體的匯率影響數據？

Yes. The currency impact for the quarter, with respect to revenues, is about $50 million-or-so of a reduction of revenues, due to currency movements. The dollar was strong during the quarter compared to last year, and the impact on income this quarter was pretty minimal.

是的。由於匯率波動，本季營收受到的匯率影響約為 5,000 萬美元左右。本季美元走強，與去年同期相比，對本季營收的影響微乎其微。

And that was 5-0 or 1-5?

比數是5比0還是1比5？

5-0.

5-0。

Your next question comes from David Leiker with Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 David Leiker。

This is Joe Vruwink for David. Just one question for me. Everything on the call has sounded really positive, and the industry is doing well. So what, if anything, are you worried about as you look into 2019?

這是喬·弗魯溫克為大衛報的名。我只有一個問題。電話會議上的所有內容聽起來都非常積極，行業發展勢頭良好。展望2019年，你最擔心的是什麼？

The backlogs and the business conditions are very good. And so we feel really good about -- like I said, we're at record levels in all of our segments, and our focus is to continue to grow, take advantage of the current market opportunities. So I'd say, there's not any major concerns on our horizon.

積壓訂單和商業環境都非常好。因此，我們感到非常高興——就像我說的，我們所有業務板塊都達到了創紀錄的水平，我們的重點是繼續成長，抓住當前的市場機會。所以我覺得，目前我們沒有什麼重大擔憂。

Trucks are performing great, and all our customers are very happy with the trucks that they're buying. Pretty good position to be in.

卡車性能優異，所有客戶對他們購買的卡車都非常滿意。這是個相當不錯的處境。

When you -- maybe I'll throw one idea out there. When you look at pricing trends and the spot market, and how that ultimately flows into your customers' core rates, there's definitely been some moderation there. So when you think about orders that have been placed Q3, Q4 of this year, and you think about your customers pricing maybe moderating from the high levels it's been at, does that give you a cause for concern? Or if there's any headwind from that dynamic, maybe it's more of a late 2019 phenomenon, ultimately.

當你——或許我可以提出一個想法。當你觀察定價趨勢和現貨市場，以及這些最終如何影響客戶的核心費率時，你會發現價格確實趨於緩和。所以，當你考慮到今年第三季和第四季下的訂單，以及客戶定價可能從之前的較高水準有所回落時，這是否會讓你感到擔憂？或者說，如果這種動態帶來任何不利影響，那最終可能更像是 2019 年底才會出現的現象。

So the Financial Services portfolio has been at less than 1% past dues for about 6 consecutive years. And that was during periods of really strong freight markets down to maybe not so strong freight markets. So I don't see that the customer's ability to meet their obligations is going to be significantly affected by some moderate reduction in pricing in the freight market. It's just been extraordinarily good in the last 6 months. And so I don't see that being a factor in our customers' decisions to buy trucks or being able to meet their commitments.

因此，金融服務投資組合的逾期率已連續約 6 年低於 1%。而且這種情況發生在貨運市場非常強勁的時期，也發生在貨運市場可能不太強勁的時期。因此，我認為貨運市場價格的適度下降不會對客戶履行其義務的能力產生重大影響。過去六個月的情況真是好得令人難以置信。因此，我不認為這會成為客戶決定購買卡車或履行承諾的因素。

Your next question comes from Sameer Rathod with Macquarie.

下一個問題來自麥格理銀行的Sameer Rathod。

Just one quick question on wages and wage pressure. Are you guys seeing any lack of availability in terms of hiring people or seeing any increases in wages that you have to pay in the tight market?

關於薪資和薪資壓力，我還有一個問題想問一下。在當前勞動市場緊張的情況下，你們是否遇到招募人員短缺或薪資上漲的問題？

We just have -- we have great facilities. We have great reputations in the communities in which our factories and warehouses are located. We probably have some of the longest tenured employees in the industry that work in our operations. And so when we have a need for employees, we probably get 10 apps for every job that we post. So we're viewed as a premium employer in the markets that we're in. And so we're able to find the people we need to do our staffing. That being said, there are some pockets where that's part of -- the supplier's challenge is getting employees in some of the areas in which they're in. And so again, they're working through that to try and solve those challenges.

我們擁有—我們擁有非常棒的設施。我們在工廠和倉庫所在社區享有良好的聲譽。我們公司營運部門的員工中，可能有些是業界任職時間最長的。因此，當我們招募員工時，我們發布的每個職位大概都會收到 10 份申請。因此，在我們所處的市場中，我們被視為一家優質雇主。因此，我們能夠找到我們需要的人員來完成我們的人員配備工作。也就是說，在某些地區，供應商面臨的挑戰是找到他們所在地區的員工。所以，他們正在努力克服這些挑戰。

Your next question comes from Joe O'Dea with Vertical Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Joe O'Dea。

First, just talking about gross margins next year in the 14% to 15% range and kind of in line with where you are this year, and then, thinking about what looks like a set up for some tailwinds on price supply chain issues abating, mix that looks like, if anything, it's a bit of a benefit on stronger North America. And so what's some of the kind of offsets to that might be such that we don't see year-over-year margin expansion?

首先，我們來談談明年的毛利率，預計在 14% 到 15% 之間，與今年的水平基本一致。其次，考慮到價格供應鏈問題有所緩解，這似乎會帶來一些利多因素，而北美市場的強勁成長似乎也會帶來一些好處。那麼，有哪些因素可能會抵銷這種影響，導致我們看不到年比利潤率的成長呢？

If all those things you said occur, there's no offset. But it's a dynamic world and you got to manage the best you can with circumstances, so -- and that's what we do every day.

如果你說的那些事情都發生了，那就沒有抵銷作用了。但這是一個瞬息萬變的世界，你必須盡力適應各種情況，所以——而這正是我們每天都在做的事情。

Okay. Appreciate it. And then, just on the cash side of things, ending the quarter with $3.8 billion of cash and marketable securities, and trying to think about deployment options and just any context around how much cash you feel you need to have on the balance sheet for the credit rating and for other operational uses. And whether you think about stepping above the typical payout range target or whether you think about other deployment options just given we continue to see the cash balance move higher, and presumably, it's set to go even higher next year.

好的。謝謝。然後，就現金方面而言，本季末我們擁有 38 億美元的現金和有價證券，我們正在考慮部署方案，以及任何與您認為資產負債表上需要多少現金才能保證信用評級和其他營運用途相關的背景資訊。無論你是考慮突破典型的派息範圍目標，還是考慮其他部署方案，鑑於我們看到現金餘額持續上升，而且可以預見的是，明年還會更高。

Yes. We think about all those things. But if you look at, historically, about our cash balance, if you go back 10 years, it's in the mid- to high-teens as a percent of our total assets, and that's where it sits currently. But it's an ongoing discussion and review with the board about payouts and buybacks, et cetera, and that will continue.

是的。我們會考慮所有這些事情。但如果你回顧過去 10 年的數據，看看我們的現金餘額，它占我們總資產的比例在 15% 到 10% 之間，而目前也處於這個水平。但與董事會就分紅和股票回購等問題進行的討論和審查仍在繼續，而且還會繼續進行。

Your next question comes from Jeff Kauffman with Loop Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的 Jeff Kauffman。

I got to be honest -- my questions have really been answered, and David Raso, I think, asked a big question I had on mix. So let me just dive a little deeper into it. I understand what you're saying about the residual value contracts in Europe. I was a little surprised the impact was as big as it was. So if I look at your forecast, fourth quarter, 4% to 8% deliveries, I assume you're still getting 3% price and facing kind of a 1% currency headwind. Do these residual value guarantees, is it more related to you just traded a particular cohort of trucks in with low residuals during 3Q? Is it more that we're just trying to clear some inventory out of market? When I think about revenues relative to deliveries, because as David said, that was kind of the part that surprised me, was the difference here. Should I be thinking about kind of more 1:1 ratio as we head into 4Q? Or do these residual value deals continue to drag a little bit more heavily for the next quarter or 2?

說實話，我的問題確實得到了解答，我認為 David Raso 提出了我在混音方面的一個重要問題。那麼，讓我更深入地探討一下這個問題。我明白你所說的關於歐洲殘值合約的問題。這件事的影響之大讓我有些意外。所以，如果我看一下你的預測，第四季交付量為 4% 到 8%，我假設你仍然能獲得 3% 的價格成長，並且面臨大約 1% 的匯率不利影響。這些殘值保證是否與您在第三季置換的一批殘值較低的卡車有關？是我們只是想清理市場上的一些庫存？當我思考收入與交付量的關係時，正如大衛所說，這部分讓我感到驚訝，這就是其中的差異。進入第四季度，我是否應該考慮更接近 1:1 的比例？或者，這些殘值交易是否會在接下來的一個或兩個季度繼續拖延？

I don't think we have the visibility, necessarily, to what the specifics of -- but I think fourth quarter revenue -- I think, thinking about it on a 1:1 basis, is probably the way to think about it.

我認為我們可能無法清楚地了解具體情況——但我認為，就第四季度收入而言——我認為，以一對一的方式考慮，可能是最好的方法。

Your next question comes from Neil Frohnapple with Buckingham Research.

下一個問題來自白金漢研究公司的尼爾‧弗羅納普爾。

One more follow-up on the gross margin performance in 3Q. Ron, you indicated 3% new truck price realization in the quarter, but can you say if this more than offset higher average per truck material and labor cost? I know we typically have to wait for the 10-Q to get those specific numbers, but can you at least say whether the relationship was still positive in the third quarter?

關於第三季毛利率表現的後續跟進。Ron，你提到本季新卡車價格上漲了 3%，但你能說說這是否足以抵消每輛卡車平均材料和人力成本的上漲嗎？我知道我們通常需要等到 10-Q 報告才能獲得這些具體數字，但您至少可以說明一下，第三季度這種關係是否仍然呈正相關嗎？

It was roughly offset. I mean, when you see the 10-Q, as we've drafted it now, it looks like it's pretty much an offset for material and labor.

大致偏移了。我的意思是，當你看到我們現在擬定的 10-Q 表格時，它看起來基本上就是對材料和人工成本的抵消。

Okay. And then, Ron, just going back to the heavy-duty share gains in Europe, due in part to the new product introductions. I believe you said that heavy duty orders were up 26% in the first half of the year. Are you able to say what DAF's order rate -- order growth rate was in the third quarter?

好的。然後，羅恩，讓我們回到歐洲重型卡車市場份額的成長，這部分歸功於新產品的推出。我記得您說過，今年上半年重型設備的訂單量增加了 26%。您能否告知DAF第三季的訂單成長率是多少？

I don't have that detail handy here, but that's something we can grab.

我手邊沒有這個細節，但我們可以去查一下。

So if you compare the third quarter this year to the third quarter last year, total European orders are up 4% for the quarter in Europe, and 17% year-to-date.

因此，如果將今年第三季與去年第三季進行比較，歐洲本季總訂單量增加了 4%，年初至今成長了 17%。

Your next question comes from Faheem Sabeiha with Longbow Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Longbow Research 的 Faheem Sabeiha。

I was wondering if you guys can provide a little more color around the Parts outlook for next year. Just wondering how much of that growth is expected to come from freight activity versus higher engine sales and the higher TRP part sales?

我想請教各位，能否詳細介紹明年零件市場的前景？我想知道，這部分成長預計有多少來自貨運業務，又有多少來自引擎銷售成長和TRP零件銷售成長？

I think it comes from a lot of different avenues. We continue to increase the level of MX engines in the truck park on an ongoing basis. I think we're -- since we started production, I think we're at about 200,000. And so with engine production next year, that probably goes up another 15% or 20%. The engines are getting -- the engines that we produced 3 or 4, 5, 6, 7 years ago are getting more into their maintenance period, and so that's going to be a positive effect. So I think engine parts has been, and probably will continue to be, the highest percentage growth driver for PACCAR Parts. But then you look at the increased level of TRP stores, the fleet services initiatives that our team is championing, the e-commerce initiatives to really make it easier to interface with PACCAR Parts, the team has done a great job and really superb performance this year.

我認為它來自許多不同的途徑。我們將持續增加卡車車隊中MX引擎的配備水準。我認為，自從我們開始生產以來，我們的產量大約是 20 萬。因此，隨著明年引擎產量的增加，產量可能會再增加 15% 或 20%。這些引擎——我們3、4、5、6、7年前生產的引擎——越來越接近其維護週期，因此這將產生積極的影響。所以我認為引擎零件一直是，而且很可能會繼續是 PACCAR Parts 成長百分比最高的驅動因素。但是，看看 TRP 門市數量的增加、我們團隊大力推行的車隊服務計劃、以及真正讓與 PACCAR Parts 的對接更加便捷的電子商務計劃，團隊今年的工作非常出色，業績也十分優異。

Sounds good. And in regards to the gross margin outlook for next year, what does that assume as far as the parts margin? Are you guys expecting the parts margin to be relatively flat versus 2018? Or are you expecting continued growth there?

聽起來不錯。至於明年的毛利率前景，這其中對零部件利潤率有何假設？你們預計零件利潤率會與 2018 年相比基本持平嗎？或者您預期該地區會繼續成長？

No. I think that 27%, 27.5% range is probably a reasonable way to think about it.

不。我認為 27% 到 27.5% 的範圍可能是合理的思考方式。

Your next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Scott Group 和 Wolfe Research。

It's Rob on for Scott. Looking out to next year, with regard to kind of the gross margins. Are you expecting any sort of drag in the first half associated with the hundreds of dollars of impact that you called out on the tariffs? Or should we be thinking about kind of price like this quarter offsetting any sort of that cost inflation?

羅布代替斯科特上場。展望明年，關於毛利率方面的情況。您是否預計上半年會因您提到的關稅影響（數百美元）而出現任何拖累？或者我們應該考慮像本季這樣的價格走勢來抵消任何成本上漲的影響？

I think we should think about it offsetting.

我認為我們應該考慮相互抵消。

All right. That's helpful. And then, I think I had missed it if you provided some color in terms of the used truck pricing trends that you guys are seeing from your models. I know you're continuing to generate a premium to the overall market, but can you give a sense of what you guys saw from that used price realization?

好的。那很有幫助。然後，如果您能就您根據模型觀察到的二手卡車價格趨勢提供一些細節，我想我可能錯過了。我知道你們的產品持續為市場帶來溢價，但你們能否談談你們從二手市場價格實現中觀察到的趨勢？

Yes. I think if you compare the third quarter this year to a year ago, it's up about 10% overall. So it's been good. And we see that in the results in our Financial Services business in North America. In Europe, pricing is a little bit flat compared to where it was a year ago.

是的。我認為，如果將今年第三季與去年同期相比，整體成長了約 10%。所以一切都很好。我們在北美金融服務業務的表現中也看到了這一點。歐洲的物價與一年前相比略有持平。

Got it. Helpful. Final one, in terms of the mix, was the revenue per unit in the U.S. and Canada, how much was that down year-over-year? And I realized that the price realization is up 3%, but I'm assuming there was some mix within that segment as well. Am I thinking about that right for the third quarter?

知道了。很有幫助。就產品組合而言，最後一個問題是美國和加拿大的單位收入，與去年同期相比下降了多少？我發現價格實際上上漲了 3%，但我估計該細分市場內部也存在一些波動。我這樣考慮第三季合適嗎？

Yes. I don't think there's any dramatic puts and takes in terms of price per unit. I mean, it gets impacted by a little bit -- by the mix of medium versus heavy-duty. But again, I don't think there's anything there that's different than what we would normally expect.

是的。我認為就單位價格而言，不會有任何劇烈的波動。我的意思是，它會受到一些影響——受到中等強度和高強度混合使用的影響。但話說回來，我覺得那裡沒有什麼與我們通常預期的不同之處。

Your next question comes from Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的安·杜伊尼安。

I just had a follow-up since we just came back from IAA a couple of weeks ago, whenever it was. One of the things that I found most interesting was walking IVECO's exhibit, and all the signage they had around their booth for no diesel, no diesel, no diesel. Can you just talk about your outlook longer-term for the growth of electric vehicles in Europe in particular, just given the 2025 regulations that are going to come in place? And do you think that, in Europe specifically, there'll always be the need for diesel also?

我只是想跟進一下，因為我們幾週前剛從IAA回來，具體時間記不清了。我發現最有趣的事情之一是參觀依維柯的展位，以及他們在展位周圍設置的所有“禁止柴油，禁止柴油，禁止柴油”的標語。鑑於2025年即將生效的法規，您能否談談您對歐洲電動車長期發展的展望？你認為，尤其是在歐洲，柴油車是否永遠都有需求？

I think in the -- the economics of diesel just makes sense and they're going to continue to make sense for a long time, so it's going to be the dominant power source for long-haul trucking, certainly. There's obviously going to be opportunities that will develop in urban areas that may bring about hybrids or electric vehicles, and so we're prepared for those. You, obviously, saw at the IAA show and drove our CF Electric, we have a full suite of vehicles in terms of all electric, heavy, light-duty, and we do that both in North America and Europe. So we're well prepared for the places where it makes sense. We think there'll be local geographies more than there will generally widespread displacement of diesel for the foreseeable future.

我認為，從經濟角度來看，柴油是合理的，而且在很長一段時間內都會如此，因此它肯定會成為長途貨運的主要動力來源。顯然，城市地區將會出現一些機遇，可能會催生混合動力車或電動車，因此我們已經為此做好了準備。顯然，您在 IAA 車展上看到了我們的 CF Electric，並且試駕過。我們在全電動、重型、輕型車輛方面擁有全系列產品，我們在北美和歐洲都有銷售。所以，我們已經為那些適當的地方做好了充分的準備。我們認為，在可預見的未來，柴油被替代的現象將更局限於局部地區，而不是普遍廣泛地被取代。

Yes. I think there's a growing sentiment that maybe the diesel with a 0-emission hybrid capability may be the best economic solution for those inner-city applications where you need that 0 emission requirement as opposed to a full electric option, which is just -- the batteries and the weight are still present, and absent a break to that -- the economic case is a bit challenging.

是的。我認為越來越多的人認為，對於那些需要零排放的城市應用來說，具備零排放混合動力功能的柴油車可能是最佳的經濟解決方案，而不是純電動方案——因為純電動方案仍然存在電池和重量問題，如果沒有突破，經濟效益就難以保證。

Yes. Maybe I misinterpreted IVECO's intent, but maybe it was more their approach to meeting these new non-diesel catchments as opposed to there won't be any diesel trucks left. So I appreciate your color on that. That's helpful.

是的。也許我誤解了依維柯的意圖，但也許這更多的是他們為了滿足這些新的非柴油市場需求而採取的策略，而不是意味著柴油卡車將完全消失。我很欣賞你對此的看法。那很有幫助。

There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有其他補充說明嗎？

We'd like to thank everyone for their participation, and thank you, operator.

感謝大家的參與，也感謝操作員。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，PACCAR的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。