帕卡 (PCAR) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's Fourth Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time. I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2017 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的通話正在錄音，如有任何異議，請立即掛斷電話。現在我謹向大家介紹 PACCAR 的投資者關係總監 Ken Hastings 先生。哈斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are: Ron Armstrong, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller. (Operator Instructions)

早安.我們歡迎透過電話收聽的聽眾和透過網路直播收聽的聽眾。我是肯‧黑斯廷斯，PACCAR公司的投資人關係總監。今天早上和我一起出席的有：執行長 Ron Armstrong；總裁兼財務長 Harrie Schippers；以及高級副總裁兼財務總監 Michael Barkley。（操作說明）

Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results. I would now like to introduce Ron Armstrong.

今天公佈的某些資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的總體經濟和競爭狀況。現在我來介紹羅恩·阿姆斯特朗。

Good morning. Thanks to the accomplishment of PACCAR's 25,000 outstanding employees around the world, 2017 was an excellent year for the company. PACCAR achieved record revenues of $19.5 billion and net income of $1.68 billion. Net income includes a $173 million onetime benefit from the new U.S. tax law. Excluding the onetime tax benefit, PACCAR reported annual adjusted net income of $1.5 billion, the second highest in the company's history.

早安.由於 PACCAR 全球 25,000 名傑出員工的辛勤付出，2017 年對公司來說是碩果累累的一年。PACCAR 實現了創紀錄的 195 億美元營收和 16.8 億美元的淨利潤。淨收入包括美國新稅法帶來的 1.73 億美元的一次性收益。不計入一次性稅收優惠，PACCAR公佈的年度調整後淨收入為15億美元，是該公司史上第二高的淨收入。

2017 was PACCAR's 79th consecutive year of generating positive earnings. Last year's results reflect record heavy-duty truck market share in the U.S. and Canada, record worldwide aftermarket parts results and a strong European truck market.

2017 年是 PACCAR 連續第 79 年獲利。去年的業績反映了美國和加拿大重型卡車市場份額創歷史新高、全球售後市場零件業績創歷史新高以及歐洲卡車市場強勁增長。

PACCAR celebrated many important achievements in 2017. DAF XF and CF trucks earned the prestigious International Truck of the Year award. Kenworth and Peterbilt achieved record U.S. and Canada Class 8 retail market share of 30.7%. Kenworth and Peterbilt also launched the new PACCAR front and rear axles and the PACCAR automated transmission in North America. The PACCAR engine factory in Mississippi earned the 2017 Plant of the Year honor from Quality Magazine. The PACCAR Innovation Center opened in Silicon Valley. PACCAR Parts opened new distribution centers in Brisbane, Australia and Panama City, Panama and is constructing a new PDC in Toronto. DAF was honored as Truck Brand of the Year in Brazil for the second year in a row.

2017年，PACCAR取得了許多重要成就。DAF XF 和 CF 卡車榮獲享有盛譽的國際年度卡車獎。Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 在美國和加拿大 8 級卡車零售市佔率創下 30.7% 的紀錄。Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 也在北美推出了 PACCAR 的新型前後軸和 PACCAR 自動變速箱。PACCAR位於密西西比州的發動機工廠榮獲《質量》雜誌頒發的2017年度最佳工廠稱號。PACCAR創新中心在矽谷落成。PACCAR Parts 在澳洲布里斯班和巴拿馬巴拿馬城開設了新的配送中心，並且正在多倫多建造一個新的PDC。DAF連續第二年榮獲巴西年度卡車品牌稱號。

PACCAR's fourth quarter sales and Financial Services revenues were a quarterly record $5.45 billion. And quarterly net income was $589 million, including the $173 million onetime tax benefit. Quarterly adjusted net income, excluding the onetime tax benefit, was $416 million. PACCAR delivered a record 44,300 trucks during the fourth quarter, 10% higher than third quarter deliveries.

PACCAR第四季銷售額和金融服務收入創下季度新高，達到54.5億美元。季度淨收入為 5.89 億美元，其中包括 1.73 億美元的一次性稅收優惠。不計一次性稅收優惠，季度調整後淨收入為 4.16 億美元。PACCAR第四季交付了創紀錄的44,300輛卡車，比第三季交付量增加了10%。

PACCAR increased its regular quarterly dividend in April last year and declared total annual cash dividends of $2.19 per share, including a $1.20 per share special dividend declared in December. PACCAR has paid a dividend every year since 1941, and its total dividend yield was an excellent 3.1% at year-end.

PACCAR 於去年 4 月提高了其常規季度股息，並宣布年度現金股息總額為每股 2.19 美元，其中包括 12 月宣布的每股 1.20 美元的特別股息。PACCAR 自 1941 年以來每年都會派發股息，其年末總股息收益率高達 3.1%。

We estimate that PACCAR's 2018 effective tax rate will be 23% to 25% compared to an effective tax rate of approximately 31% prior to the new law. The new U.S. corporate tax rate and accelerated depreciation of machinery and equipment will generate positive cash flow for PACCAR and its customers.

我們估計，PACCAR 2018 年的實際稅率將為 23% 至 25%，而新法實施前的實際稅率約為 31%。美國新的企業稅率和機械設備加速折舊政策將為 PACCAR 及其客戶帶來正現金流。

We expect first quarter margins to be about 50 basis points higher on similar truck and parts volumes when compared to the fourth quarter last year. And based on our current market assumptions, we expect 2018 full year margins to be comparable to first quarter levels.

我們預計，在卡車和零件銷售相近的情況下，第一季的利潤率將比去年第四季高出約 50 個基點。根據我們目前的市場假設，我們預計 2018 年全年利潤率將與第一季的水準相當。

U.S. and Canada Class 8 truck industry retail sales totaled 218,000 units last year. In 2018, we estimate that the market will be in a range of 235,000 to 265,000 units. The 2018 U.S. and Canada truck market will benefit from U.S. GDP and industrial production growth as well as greater capital investment resulting from the new U.S. tax law. The European heavy truck market was a robust 306,000 units in 2017. And looking at this year, we anticipate that the above 16-tonne truck market will be another strong year and be in a range of 290,000 to 320,000 vehicles.

去年美國和加拿大8級卡車產業的零售銷售總計218,000輛。我們估計，2018 年市場銷售量將在 235,000 至 265,000 台之間。2018 年美國和加拿大卡車市場將受益於美國 GDP 和工業生產的成長，以及美國新稅法帶來更大的資本投資。2017年歐洲重型卡車市場表現強勁，銷售量達30.6萬輛。展望今年，我們預計16噸以上的卡車市場將再次保持強勁成長，銷售量將在29萬至32萬輛之間。

PACCAR Parts generated record pretax profit of $614 million and revenues of $3.3 billion in 2017. These outstanding results were driven by a growing population of PACCAR trucks and engines and investments in technology and distribution centers. For the fourth quarter, PACCAR Parts achieved record quarterly revenues of $877 million and record pretax income of $157 million. We expect parts revenues to grow 5% to 8% this year.

2017 年，PACCAR Parts 創造了 6.14 億美元的稅前利潤和 33 億美元的收入，創歷史新高。這些卓越的成果得益於 PACCAR 卡車和引擎數量的成長以及對技術和配送中心的投資。第四季度，PACCAR Parts 實現了創紀錄的季度收入 8.77 億美元和創紀錄的稅前收入 1.57 億美元。我們預計今年零件收入將成長 5% 至 8%。

PACCAR Financial Services revenues were $332 million in the fourth quarter and pretax income was $73 million. The good results benefited from continuing strong portfolio performance. U.S. Class 8 industry used truck sales volumes increased during the quarter. And Kenworth and Peterbilt resale values continue to command a 10% to 20% premium over competitors' vehicles. For the full year, PACCAR Financial Services earned pretax income of $264 million.

PACCAR金融服務公司第四季營收為3.32億美元，稅前利潤為7,300萬美元。良好的業績得益於投資組合持續強勁的表現。本季美國8級二手卡車銷量成長。肯沃斯和彼得比爾特卡車的轉售價格仍然比競爭對手的車輛高出 10% 到 20%。全年來看，PACCAR金融服務公司稅前收入為2.64億美元。

For 2018, PACCAR plans to increase research and development spending to a range of $280 million to $310 million and capital expenditures to a range of $425 million to $475 million. PACCAR is investing in new aerodynamic truck models, integrated powertrains, including zero emission electric and hydrogen fuel cell technologies, advanced driver assistance and truck connectivity technologies and expanded manufacturing and parts distribution facilities.

2018 年，PACCAR 計劃將研發支出增加到 2.8 億美元至 3.1 億美元，資本支出增加到 4.25 億美元至 4.75 億美元。PACCAR 正在投資研發新型空氣動力學卡車車型、整合動力系統（包括零排放電動和氫燃料電池技術）、先進的駕駛輔助和卡車互聯技術，並擴大製造和零件分銷設施。

As the company begins its 113th year, we are in an excellent position to lead the industry with the highest quality products and services. Thank you. I'd be pleased to answer your questions.

在公司成立113週年之際，我們擁有得天獨厚的優勢，能夠以最高品質的產品和服務引領業界。謝謝。我很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

（操作說明）您的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 公司的 Steve Volkmann。

And your next question comes from Steven Fisher with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

I know this will be in the K, but can you give us maybe what the year-over-year contribution was for volume and currency in the quarter on revenue and gross margin? And maybe how you're thinking about the components of what gets you to the 50 basis point margin improvement over the course of 2018?

我知道這會在K表中體現，但您能否提供本季銷售和匯率對營收和毛利率的年比貢獻是多少？或許您認為，在 2018 年實現 50 個基點利潤率提升的關鍵因素有哪些？

So let's talk about the -- I'll let Michael talk about the revenues and the currency effects, but I'll just address the margins as we look at the first quarter. The fourth quarter, because of the holiday period in North America, Peterbilt and Kenworth have fewer production days, so that -- you'll have more production days, and we have a bit higher margins in North America compared to Europe. And so that mix is a bit of an unfavorable effect in the fourth quarter and it'll be favorable in the first quarter. And just some other expenses and sort of the customer and product mix in the first quarter is more favorable than what we saw in the fourth quarter.

那我們來談談——關於收入和匯率影響，我會讓邁克爾來談談，但我只談談利潤率，因為我們還要看一下第一季的情況。第四季度，由於北美正值假期，Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 的生產天數減少，因此——你們的生產天數會增加，我們在北美的利潤率比歐洲略高。因此，這種組合在第四季度會產生一些不利影響，但在第一季會產生有利影響。此外，第一季的其他一些費用以及客戶和產品組合也比第四季的情況更有利。

Yes, the overall -- this is Michael. The overall currency effects for the fourth quarter were $142 million additive to revenue and about $8 million to pretax income.

是的，總而言之——這是麥可。第四季整體匯率影響為營收增加 1.42 億美元，稅前利潤增加約 800 萬美元。

Okay, sorry, that was foreign currency, you said?

好的，不好意思，您說那是外幣？

Yes.

是的。

Okay, terrific. And then I want you to just talk about the supply chain here. How is it managing the increased demand for trucks? And where are the tightest points that you're seeing at this point? Is it able to meet the ramp-up here?

好的，太棒了。然後我想請你談談這裡的供應鏈問題。公司如何應對不斷增長的卡車需求？目前來看，你認為最緊張的環節在哪裡？它能滿足這裡的產能提升需求嗎？

As we do in all ramp-ups, we always work very closely with our suppliers, give them a lot of forewarning about our plans. And so at this point, we don't see any particular challenges in working with suppliers to achieve the market demands that we currently see.

與以往所有產能提升計劃一樣，我們始終與供應商密切合作，並提前充分告知他們我們的計劃。因此，目前我們認為在與供應商合作以滿足當前市場需求方面不存在任何特殊挑戰。

Your next question comes from Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的史蒂夫沃克曼。

Hi guys, shall we try again?

嗨，各位，我們再試一次好嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Sorry about that. I just want to make sure I understood, Ron. When you're talking about the margins in the first quarter and for the full year, are you talking EBIT or gross margin?

抱歉。我只是想確認一下我是否理解了，羅恩。當您談到第一季和全年的利潤率時，您指的是息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 還是毛利率？

I'm talking about gross margin for truck parts.

我指的是卡車零件的毛利率。

Okay, that's what I thought. And then, let's discuss just a little on SG&A. Shall we think about that being sort of flat in dollar terms? Or will you spend a little bit more there as well? So just your thinking there.

好吧，我就知道會是這樣。然後，我們來簡單討論一下銷售、一般及行政費用。我們是否可以認為，以美元計價，這個數字基本上持平？還是你也會在那裡多花一點錢？你只是在想這件事而已。

So if you look at the fourth quarter, that's probably fairly indicative of what our run rate will be for 2018, probably with a little bit of upward pressure because of exchange rates. These rates will be higher for 2018 than they were in 2017.

所以，如果你看一下第四季度，這可能相當準確地反映了我們 2018 年的運行速度，可能會因為匯率而略有上升壓力。2018 年的這些利率將高於 2017 年的利率。

Okay, and then you talked about sort of spending a little bit more on some drivetrain integration and electric and all that. How should we think about this kind of longer-term over the next kind of 3 to 5 years? Are you going to have to sort of spend increasingly larger amounts of R&D and CapEx to kind of get ready for whatever the future looks like in heavy truck? Or is this sort of a sustainable kind of rate?

好的，然後你提到要在動力傳動系統整合、電動化等方面多花一些錢。我們該如何看待未來3到5年這類長期發展問題？你是否需要投入越來越多的研發和資本支出，為重型卡車產業的未來發展做好準備？或者說，這是一種可持續的利率嗎？

I'd say it's more sustainable. This is with 2021 greenhouse gas emissions on the horizon, we're investing now for that, so I think we have a pretty clear view of -- that this level is probably kind of the sustainable level for the next foreseeable few years.

我認為它更具可持續性。鑑於 2021 年溫室氣體排放量即將到來，我們現在正在為此進行投資，所以我認為我們很清楚地看到——這個水平可能是未來幾年可持續的水平。

And do you have a target year for when you think you'll have an electric vehicle of any sort ready for the market? And then I'll pass it on.

你們有沒有計劃在哪一年推出任何類型的電動車？然後我會把它轉交給別人。

We'll have it ready when the customer demand is there to support that. We're obviously investing, like a lot of companies are, in zero emission technologies. And as the world evolves and as those vehicles become economical to the customers, that's the point at which we'll definitely have a product in the market.

當客戶需求足以支撐時，我們會準備好。顯然，和許多公司一樣，我們也在投資零排放技術。隨著世界的發展，以及這些車輛對消費者來說變得更加經濟實惠，那時我們肯定會有產品進入市場。

Your next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

I'm wondering if you could update us on factory overhead performance in the quarter or over the year. You folks have had costs rising to support the production ramp, and I'm just wondering how did that evolve into the fourth quarter?

我想請您報告本季或全年的工廠營運成本表現。為了支持產能提升，你們的成本一直在上漲，我想知道這種情況在第四季是如何發展的？

Yes, it was very normal. I mean, reflected our build rates. We got good operating leverage on our factory operations. So I would say, it was very normal.

是的，這很正常。我的意思是，這反映了我們的建造速度。我們在工廠營運方面獲得了良好的經營槓桿。所以我覺得，這很正常。

And in terms of the drag from that factory overhead ramp, how does that evolve as we think about '18? Is it any easier to ramp from here? Or are we thinking about similar drag in terms of factory overhead cost growth in '18 as we saw in '17?

那麼，就工廠高架斜坡帶來的阻力而言，當我們展望 2018 年時，情況又會如何改變呢？從這裡開始爬坡會比較容易嗎？或者，我們認為 2018 年工廠營運成本成長會像 2017 年那樣受到拖累？

I think we'll see again, very normal progression. Factory overhead will go up as we increment build rates or come down as we decrement build rates. And so all very normal and -- so I don't have anything else to add there.

我認為我們會看到，一切進展都很正常。隨著生產速度的提高，工廠管理費用將會增加；隨著生產速度的降低，工廠管理費用將會減少。一切都很正常，我沒有什麼好補充的了。

Okay. And can you talk about the parts business? The price cost dynamic was a headwind on a year-over-year basis for the past 2 quarters. Did you folks turned the corner in the fourth quarter? And can you just talk about the strategy there in terms of why pricing has lagged inflation for parts for you?

好的。能談談零件業務嗎？過去兩個季度，價格成本動態對年比業績構成不利影響。你們在第四節扭轉了局面嗎？您能否談談貴公司在零件定價方面為何一直落後於通膨的策略？

Yes, I don't think it's pricing. There are -- we have incentives, and because of the great volume, the great programs that our PACCAR Parts team provides, the dealers earn some higher incentive levels that they haven't earned before. And so that's reflective, but that also is reflected in the fact that we achieved record sales and record profits.

是的，我不認為是價格問題。確實有——我們有激勵措施，而且由於銷售量龐大，加上 PACCAR 零件團隊提供的出色計劃，經銷商可以獲得以前從未獲得過的更高激勵水平。所以這既是一種反映，也體現在我們取得了創紀錄的銷售額和創紀錄的利潤。

Okay. And lastly in terms of the new tax structure, does that impact your thinking in terms of how much excess cash you need on the balance sheets, since now you don't have unremitted foreign earnings, the way you did under the prior tax jurisdiction? Any change to how you're thinking about target levels of cash?

好的。最後，關於新的稅收結構，由於現在您不再像以前的稅收管轄區那樣有未匯回的海外收益，這是否會影響您對資產負債表上需要多少超額現金的看法？您對目標現金水準的看法有任何改變嗎？

Yes, we'll progress -- as we progress through this year, we'll become much more -- smarter each quarter about how this progresses. But we do see a, definitely a favorable benefit. And so we'll be thinking about our capital allocation strategies as we go forward.

是的，我們會取得進步——隨著今年的推進，我們每季都會對事情的進展有更深入的了解。但我們確實看到了一個非常有利的好處。因此，我們將在未來思考我們的資本配置策略。

Your next question comes from Joel Tiss with BMO.

下一個問題來自BMO的Joel Tiss。

So I'm just wondering if you can give us some of the factors, like what held back the incremental margins in 2017? Just some of the things is it -- have you pretty much optimized all your production? Or is there something else in there?

所以我想知道您能否告訴我們一些影響因素，例如是什麼阻礙了 2017 年利潤率的成長？只是其中一部分──你的生產流程是否已經基本優化完畢？還是裡面還有其他東西？

No, the single biggest item, Joel, was just material cost movement. In 2016, we had very nice, favorable material cost movements. 2017 was just the opposite. So they went in different directions year-over-year. And so that was probably the single biggest item. And then we launched some new products that had a lot of renewable elements to it. And so as we launch those products, we put our initial accrual rates for warranty and some of the other costs at slightly higher rates, just to be conservative. Products are performing excellently in the market. So we'll see some benefit of that as we go forward.

不，喬爾，最大的變化只是材料成本變動。2016年，我們的材料成本出現了非常有利的波動。2017年的情況則恰恰相反。所以他們每年都朝著不同的方向發展。所以，這大概是其中最重要的一項了。然後我們推出了一些含有大量可再生元素的新產品。因此，在推出這些產品時，為了保守起見，我們將保固和其他一些成本的初始提列率設定得略高一些。產品在市場上表現出色。所以隨著時間的推移，我們將會看到一些好處。

Okay. And I didn't see in the press release your market share in Europe. Can you give us a sense of what it was?

好的。而且我在新聞稿中沒有看到貴公司在歐洲的市佔率。你能為我們描述一下那是什麼嗎？

Yes, 15.3% for the full year and 15.7% in the fourth quarter.

是的，全年為 15.3%，第四季為 15.7%。

Great. And then just last, on that AMT product, is that a PACCAR product? Or do you buy it from someone else and rebrand it?

偉大的。最後，關於AMT產品，它是PACCAR的產品嗎？還是你從別人那裡購買，然後重新貼牌銷售？

It's rebranded. But it's -- but I would say, Joel, it is a -- it is customized to mesh with our axles and our MX engines. So it's a unique configuration for our vehicles.

它已更名。但是——但是我想說，喬爾，它是——它是定制的，可以與我們的車軸和MX發動機配合使用。所以這是我們車輛的獨特配置。

Your next question comes from Ross Gilardi with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅斯·吉拉迪。

Ron, I was just curious what you're seeing in -- with used truck pricing. And is -- are you seeing any recovery there? And if so, is it translating at all into better new truck pricing?

羅恩，我只是好奇你對二手卡車的價格有什麼看法。那麼——你看到那裡有任何復甦的跡象嗎？如果真是如此，這是否轉化為更優惠的新卡車價格？

I would say it's stable. The used truck prices have been fairly stable during the second half of the year and as we start into 2018. And I would say that -- say the same thing for new truck pricing that is relatively stable.

我認為它很穩定。今年下半年以及進入 2018 年以來，二手卡車的價格一直相當穩定。我還要說，對於相對穩定的新卡車價格來說，情況也是如此。

Okay, got it. And any thoughts on the finco, how that would shake out? I mean, you got off to a -- in 2018, you got off to a weaker start in early 2017, and that was partly due to the weakness in used truck pricing. Should -- do you think you'd get a little bit of a bump there? And should we kind of consider this Q4 run rate for earnings kind of what we -- should we use that for 2018?

好的，明白了。對於金融公司，您有什麼看法？它最終會如何發展？我的意思是，你們在 2018 年開局不利，2017 年初的開局則比較疲軟，部分原因是二手卡車價格疲軟。應該——你覺得在那裡會稍微有點提升嗎？我們是否應該將第四季的獲利運行率視為 2018 年的獲利預測指標？

Yes, I think probably if you took an average of the full year, divided that by -- full year last year, and divided that by 4, that's probably a fairly indicative run rate, plus or minus, for developments during the course of the year.

是的，我認為，如果你取全年的平均值，除以去年的全年，再除以 4，這大概就是一年中發展情況的一個相當明顯的運行率（正負值）。

Got it, okay. And then just thoughts on the, like the state of the U.K. Market, I mean, the U.K. registrations have been soft. And so it's hard to know if that's really indicative of what you guys are experiencing. So did you see a tailing off of momentum or absolute declines in your U.K. business as the year closed out? And expectations, the U.K. for 2018?

明白了，好的。然後，我還想談談英國市場的狀況，例如英國的註冊情況一直比較疲軟。所以很難判斷這是否真的能反映你們的情況。那麼，隨著年底臨近，您是否發現英國業務的成長勢頭有所減弱或出現絕對下滑？那麼，人們對2018年英國有何期待呢？

Our team there did a great job. They finished, when you look at the combined above 16-tonne and the 6 to 16-tonne market, they, for the second year in a row, were over 30% share of that market. So our teams do a great job there, and we're working closely with our customers for negotiating orders for 2018. And so we expect, as the year progresses that the U.K. market, by the time we get through the year, will be similar to 2017 levels.

我們團隊在那裡做得非常出色。最後，當你把16噸以上和6至16噸的市場合併來看，他們連續第二年佔據了該市場30%以上的份額。所以我們的團隊在那裡做得非常出色，我們正在與客戶密切合作，協商 2018 年的訂單。因此我們預計，隨著時間的推移，到今年年底，英國市場將與 2017 年的水平相似。

Your next question comes from Jamie Cook with Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的傑米庫克。

Two questions, one on the margin commentary for 2018. You're tweaking your margins down, or maybe splitting hairs, essentially flat versus what you said last quarter for '18. But your industry retail sales forecasts are up. So I'm just wondering, sort of what's changed. Is it just material cost? Is it market share? If you could just talk through why wouldn't the operating leverage be better on higher sales, and maybe if you hit the high end of your forecast, how to think about margins? And then my second question, some people are increasingly concerned that as the U.S. truck market continues to be stronger, and we continue to raise 2018 industry forecasts that, that takes away from '19. Are you getting more concerned that sort of '18 is the peak of the cycle, just given the strength that we're seeing?

兩個問題，一個是關於 2018 年的邊註。你們正在微調利潤率，或者說是吹毛求疵，基本上與你們上個季度對 2018 年的預測持平。但你們產業的零售銷售預測卻上調了。所以我想知道，究竟發生了什麼變化。僅僅是材料成本嗎？是市佔率嗎？如果您能詳細解釋為什麼銷售額越高，經營槓桿反而不會更好，以及如果達到預測的上限，利潤率又該如何考慮，那就太好了。我的第二個問題是，有些人越來越擔心，隨著美國卡車市場持續走強，我們不斷提高 2018 年的產業預測，這會削弱 2019 年的表現。鑑於我們目前看到的強勁勢頭，你是否越來越擔心 2018 年是本輪週期的頂峰？

No, we're, we were not concerned about the peak. We're obviously working closely with our customers to meet their needs today, tomorrow, and whatever those needs are, we'll be -- work closely with them, to make sure that we meet those. And we'll flex to -- adjust to whatever the market demands are, and that's a real strength of our company. As we think about margins, there's a lot of factors that can impact 2018 margins, material costs, other factors as we progress through the year. So it's early days. We feel pretty good about the first quarter, and we'll see how things develop for the full year.

不，我們並不擔心峰值。我們顯然正在與客戶密切合作，以滿足他們現在、未來以及任何方面的需求，我們將與他們密切合作，確保滿足這些需求。我們會靈活調整以適應市場需求，這是我們公司的真正優勢。當我們考慮利潤率時，有許多因素會影響 2018 年的利潤率，例如材料成本，以及其他一些因素，這些因素會隨著時間的推移而變化。現在還為時過早。我們對第一季的業績感覺相當不錯，接下來我們將觀察全年的發展。

Your next question comes from Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的安·杜伊尼安。

This is Abdul Tambal on behalf of Ann. Can you just talk about what kind of impact do you expect changes in the U.S. tax law to have on your capital allocation strategy? And would you expect any -- you guys to make any changes on your dividend payouts which is currently around 50% of net income?

我是阿卜杜勒·坦巴爾，代表安。您能否談談您預期美國稅法的變化會對您的資本配置策略產生什麼樣的影響？你們預計會改變目前的股利支付比例嗎？目前股息支付約佔淨收入的 50%。

No, I don't foresee any particular change. Obviously, that will be a matter for discussion with the Board as we discuss things during 2018. But I don't see us making radical changes, significant changes in our capital allocation approach and our dividend practices.

不，我預計不會有任何特別的變化。顯然，這將是我們在 2018 年與董事會討論的問題之一。但我認為我們不會對我們的資本配置方式和股利分配方式進行根本性的、重大的改變。

Your next question comes from Tim Thein with Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的提姆·泰恩。

Ron, I just wanted to circle back with your comments earlier on, on pricing. Maybe you could just talk a little bit more about the outlook in terms of what you're assuming here in '18 in, both in the U.S. and in Europe. And I guess somewhat related to that, I'm just thinking, from an industry standpoint here, we're approaching what, 2.5-, kind of 3-plus year highs in terms of quarterly projected build rates. I'm just curious what do you think? I know there's some changes in terms of potential ownership, similar to what we saw in Europe I guess a couple of years back. But maybe just, what do you think that dynamic is holding back, or dynamics, that are holding back the pricing opportunity in North America, and I guess lesser -- less so in Europe. So maybe just some comments there.

羅恩，我只是想就你之前關於定價的評論再補充一點。或許您可以再多談談您對 2018 年美國和歐洲經濟前景的看法。我想，從行業角度來看，我們目前的季度預計建設速度已經接近 2.5 到 3 年多來的最高水平，這與上述情況有些關聯。我只是好奇你的想法？我知道在潛在所有權方面有一些變化，這和我們幾年前在歐洲看到的情況類似。但或許，您認為是什麼因素阻礙了北美（以及歐洲，程度較輕）的定價機會？所以，或許可以在這裡補充一些意見。

So maybe, Tim, can you clarify for me what you -- you talked about changes in potential ownership. What...

所以，提姆，你能幫我澄清一下你剛才談到的潛在所有權變更嗎？什麼...

Yes, just some potential consolidation. You had some ownership change a couple of years ago in Europe by another entity. And I'm just wondering if there's a similar kind of overlay here, in potentially North America, without naming obvious companies.

是的，可能存在一些整合。幾年前，你們在歐洲的股權被另一個實體收購了。我只是想知道，在北美地區，是否有類似的疊加效應，我就不點名具體公司了。

Yes, sure. I mean, I -- there's consolidation that goes on sort of continuously in the transportation industry. And we work very closely with the predecessor and the successor companies to try and maintain the strong relationships. And as you know, this is an industry that's built a lot on personal relationships, and that's important for us and our teams. As we think about pricing, it's -- it's just a competitive market, and we price to meet our customers' needs. We have great trucks that have -- earn a premium in the marketplace. And we work closely to earn our share of the market. And we're all about profitable market share, and that's our focus, and we'll continue to do that. And so the competitive environment will dictate what the pricing opportunities will be or not be.

當然可以。我的意思是，運輸業一直在進行整合。我們與前身公司和後繼公司密切合作，努力維持牢固的關係。如你所知，這是一個非常依賴人際關係的行業，這對我們和我們的團隊都非常重要。當我們考慮定價時，這其實是一個競爭激烈的市場，我們定價是為了滿足客戶的需求。我們擁有性能卓越的卡車，在市場上享有溢價。我們緊密合作，努力贏得市場份額。我們追求的是獲利的市場份額，這是我們的重點，我們將繼續這樣做。因此，競爭環境將決定定價機會的有無。

Your next question comes from Seth Weber with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的塞思‧韋伯。

I wanted to ask about the strength in the parts sales again. I mean, is there anything that you could call out there with respect to whether it's the MX engine starting to kick in? And just, is a mid- to high single-digit growth rate the right way to think about this business now going forward, is my first question.

我想再次詢問零部件銷售的強度。我的意思是，有沒有什麼跡象顯示這是MX引擎開始啟動了？我的第一個問題是，對於這家企業未來的發展，以個位數中高成長率來衡量是否正確。

Yes, so on parts, I think it's a combination of higher truck populations and certainly the increased engine population with MX engines in North America now. The programs that the teams have put together with fleet services, billings, the e-commerce capabilities that we have, we're now up to over 130 TRP stores around the globe, the TRP brand. So all those things are elements that contribute to, I would say, above industry growth levels in the parts business. And sure, we'd hope to be able to continue to build on those. But we're focused on continuing to build that business during the course of this year.

是的，就零件而言，我認為這是卡車數量增加以及北美地區MX引擎數量增加共同作用的結果。團隊將車隊服務、計費、電子商務能力等功能整合在一起，目前我們在全球擁有超過 130 家 TRP 門市，TRP 品牌也已成長。因此，我認為所有這些因素都促成了零件行業的成長水準高於行業平均。當然，我們希望能夠繼續在此基礎上發展。但我們今年的重點是繼續發展這項業務。

Okay. And then, just on the -- I think I heard deliveries flat sequentially 4Q to 1Q. Is there any regional color that you could give us there to help?

好的。然後，就在那一點上——我想我聽到的是，交付量與第四季度相比環比持平。您能否提供一些當地特色顏色來幫助我們？

Yes, I think just because of the workday adjustments, there'll be slightly higher North American deliveries in the first quarter and slightly lower European deliveries in the first quarter.

是的，我認為僅僅是因為工作日的調整，第一季北美地區的交付量會略有增加，而歐洲地區的交付量會略有下降。

Your next question comes from David Leiker with Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 David Leiker。

This is Joe Vruwink for David. I enjoyed your booth. It's -- so it's good to see a truck company at a tax show.

這是喬·弗魯溫克為大衛報的名。我很喜歡你們的攤位。所以，在稅務展上看到卡車公司真是件好事。

Yes. So Harrie was there. Harrie went -- Harrie, what are your comments about that?

是的。所以哈里當時也在場。哈里問道——哈里，你對此有何評論？

Well, we had the nice hydrogen truck there, then our autonomous trucks. And we got a lot of traction, a lot of positive feedback from everybody who was at the show.

當時我們有很棒的氫燃料卡車，還有我們的自動駕駛卡車。我們獲得了極大的迴響，所有到場的人都給了我們很多正面的回饋。

So I actually wanted to ask about the zero emission truck because it's obviously not new for PACCAR. You've had vehicles, imports I think for several years now. What are some of the, I guess, challenges in getting the existing electric platforms into higher volume applications at existing fleets?

所以我其實想問關於零排放卡車的問題，因為這顯然不是 PACCAR 的新產品。我想你擁有車輛，而且應該是進口車，已經好幾年了。我想，將現有電動平台推廣到現有車隊的大規模應用中，會面臨哪些挑戰？

I think the major thing we need is a breakthrough in battery technology for electric trucks to really scale and really be significant for heavy commercial trucks.

我認為我們最需要的是電動卡車電池技術的突破，這樣才能真正實現規模化生產，並對重型商用卡車產生重大影響。

And then when you think about fuel-cell trucks, there's a lot of infrastructure that has to -- hydrogen fuel cell has to be, that has to be developed, to support fuel cell technology. But all things that we're working with our truck divisions and with some of our suppliers on developing the capabilities to be ready when the demand is right.

然後，當你想到燃料電池卡車時，你會發現有很多基礎設施——氫燃料電池——需要開發，才能支持燃料電池技術。但是，我們正在與卡車部門和一些供應商合作，開發相關能力，以便在需求合適的時候做好準備。

And when we think about breakthroughs in battery technology, is that energy density? Is that packaging? Is that thermal in the heavy-duty application? There's obviously very aggressive forecasts for automotive lithium ion battery technology. What are some of the limitations in taking that into a heavy-duty application?

當我們思考電池技術的突破時，能量密度算不算突破？這是包裝嗎？在重載應用中，這種熱效應是否成立？顯然，汽車鋰離子電池技術的發展前景非常樂觀。將該技術應用於重型應用領域有哪些限制？

For the heavy-duty applications, it's -- weight is very important because a truck carries a lot more than a person, like a passenger car does, and the cost and the range that the truck can operate. Those are 3 things that are much more important for a heavy truck than they are for a car.

對於重型應用而言，重量非常重要，因為卡車承載的重量比乘用車承載的重量要大得多，而且卡車的成本和續航里程也很重要。對於重型卡車來說，這三點比對轎車來說重要得多。

Yes, and the packaging on the chassis and on the truck. So I -- boy, there's a lot of things that will matter as that technology gets closer to the market.

是的，還有底盤和卡車上的包裝。所以——哎，隨著這項技術越來越接近市場，有很多事情將會變得至關重要。

It will see applications in the small trucks first, and it will make its way in the coming years.

它首先會在小型卡車上應用，並在未來幾年內逐步普及。

And if you have your crystal ball in the room, 5 years from now, what sort of volume might this be commanding of PACCAR, overall?

如果你能預知未來，5年後，PACCAR的整體業務量會達到什麼程度？

That crystal ball is a little bit dim right now.

現在那顆水晶球有點暗了。

Your next question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的妮可·德布萊斯。

I guess on the truck segment, last quarter, you guys did 1% positive pricing. Did that continue into 4Q?

我猜在卡車領域，上個季度你們的定價策略是1%的正成長。這種情況延續到第四季了嗎？

I assume you're getting that from the 10-K or 10-Q?

我猜你是從10-K或10-Q檔中獲得的資訊？

That was from the Q, yes, Ron.

是的，那是來自 Q 的，羅恩。

I just -- there's a lot of dynamics in those individual line items that impact whether it's heavy-duty mix, medium-duty mix, customer mix. So you've got to look at that total table in -- as one. So it's a little bit difficult to parse into any individual line item.

我只是——這些單獨的項目有很多動態因素，會影響到重型車輛組合、中型車輛組合以及客戶組合。所以你必須把整個表格看成一個整體。因此，很難將其分解成任何單獨的條目。

Okay, so we should just wait for the K for that, I guess?

好吧，那我們是不是應該等K出來再說？

Yes.

是的。

And then, I guess on the -- what you guys have seen internally with respect to order activity in the fourth quarter, so it's been really strong for the whole industry. Just curious about mix, so any interesting that you're seeing with respect to like day cabs versus sleepers versus vocational vehicles, et cetera?

然後，我想你們內部也看到了第四季的訂單活動情況，整個產業的情況都非常強勁。我只是對車輛配置比例比較好奇，像是日間駕駛室、臥舖駕駛室、專用車輛等等，你有沒有發現什麼有趣的現象？

No, I think -- the demand is up in really all segments. I would say that, probably in terms of percentage growth, maybe a little bit higher demand on the day cab side. And we're seeing some of that on -- in the used truck market where the used day cabs have a bit of a benefit compared to what they had been say, 6 months, 9 months ago.

不，我認為——所有領域的需求都在上升。我認為，就成長百分比而言，日間駕駛室的需求可能會略高一些。我們看到，在二手卡車市場上，二手日間駕駛室卡車與 6 個月、9 個月前相比，確實有一些優勢。

Your next question comes from Andy Casey with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的安迪凱西。

Ron, I'm wondering -- or somebody, could you please discuss how Q4 gross margin performed versus whatever the embedded expectation was. In the Q3 call when you gave volume growth, it ended up being a little bit higher. I'm wondering if the margin was a little bit lower. And if so, was that -- well, was it lower?

羅恩，我想知道——或者其他人，能否請你談談第四季毛利率與預期相比表現如何？在第三季財報電話會議上，您給出的銷售成長數據最終略高於預期。我懷疑利潤率是不是稍微低了一些。如果是這樣，那是不是——嗯，是不是更低了？

I don't remember exactly what we said. But as you look at third quarter versus fourth quarter, part of what we saw was the fact that fourth quarter had higher deliveries in Europe versus North America which, again, a bit of a dampening effect on overall margins. And there were some impacts of customer and model mix in terms of the products that got sold, the customers that we sold to. And we talked a little bit about the fact that fourth quarter was a record sales period for the parts business. And the good news is we had to pay slightly higher incentives, but that -- the incentives really spurred on the additional -- help spur on the additional volume and profitability, so...

我不記得我們具體說了什麼。但對比第三季和第四季度，我們發現第四季度歐洲的交付量高於北美，這在一定程度上抑制了整體利潤率。銷售的產品和我們銷售的客戶群，都受到了客戶和車型組合的一些影響。我們也稍微談到了第四季是零件業務創紀錄的銷售時期。好消息是，我們必須支付略高的激勵措施，但這些激勵措施確實刺激了額外的銷售和盈利能力，所以…

Okay. And then, I guess if we step back from the shorter term, I'm wondering if the company has changed how it balances, kind of short-term truck margin versus longer-term total margin growth or profit growth potential that could be driven by increased engine population in the field that could support higher aftermarket sales in the future.

好的。然後，我想如果我們從短期角度來看，我想知道該公司是否改變了其平衡方式，即短期卡車利潤與長期總利潤增長或利潤增長潛力之間的平衡，而這種增長或潛力可能由現場發動機數量的增加所驅動，從而在未來支持更高的售後市場銷售額。

I don't think there's anything fundamentally that's changed about how we think about operating leverage and margin enhancement. Some years, quarters, things go your way like material costs. Sometimes, they don't, so. But I think long term, we still have a similar perspective on how we thought about margins and operating leverage over time.

我認為，我們對經營槓桿和利潤率提升的看法並沒有根本性的改變。有些年份、有些季度，事情會朝著對你有利的方向發展，例如材料成本。有時，他們不會這樣做。但我認為從長遠來看，我們對利潤率和經營槓桿的看法仍然相似。

Okay. And then, I know you suggested new and used pricing right now is pretty stable in North America. I'm just wondering if you're seeing any of the typical forward signals that could suggest pricing could start to improve during 2018.

好的。而且，我知道你之前提到過，目前北美地區的新車和二手車價格都相當穩定。我只是想知道你是否看到了任何典型的前瞻性訊號，這些訊號可能表明價格在 2018 年開始好轉。

As we sit here today, I would say pricing is fairly stable.

就目前而言，我認為價格相當穩定。

Your next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

The margins, I'm just trying to get a feel for the fourth quarter, the price cost that was incurred and what's your price cost assumption for 2018. I mean, I -- and when you pull up the currency, the gross margin was 14.2% a year ago. You pull up gross margins -- I'm sorry, pull out currency, the gross margins were 14.7%. So it's just -- to see the gross margins down, even ex currency, and North America is 51% of deliveries this quarter, a year ago fourth quarter, they were only 42%. So I thought that would be a positive mix. So I'm just trying to digest, a, how painful was the price cost in the fourth quarter; and what are you expecting for next year to kind of come up from this level and then maintain?

關於利潤率，我只是想了解第四季度的情況，包括已發生的成本和您 2018 年的成本假設。我的意思是，我——當你查看匯率時，一年前的毛利率是 14.2%。你調出毛利率——抱歉，是調出貨幣，毛利率是 14.7%。所以，即使不考慮匯率因素，毛利率也下降了，這令人擔憂。本季北美地區的交付量佔總交付量的 51%，而去年第四季這一比例僅為 42%。所以我認為這會是一個積極的組合。所以，我只是想弄清楚，a，第四季度的價格成本有多高；以及您預計明年價格會從目前的水平回升並保持穩定嗎？

So as I mentioned before, the key differences are the mix between Europe and North America in terms of volume.

正如我之前提到的，主要區別在於歐洲和北美在銷售上的組成。

And I apologize, I'm talking year-over-year. Year-over-year North American deliveries were 51% of the total. They were only 42% a year ago. So the mix is positive year-over-year, but the margins ex currency are down 50 bps. That's all. I'm just -- it's a price cost issue, I'm just trying to reconcile.

抱歉，我指的是同比數據。北美地區的年交付量佔總交付量的 51%。一年前，這一比例僅 42%。因此，產品組合年比有所改善，但剔除匯率因素後的利潤率下降了 50 個基點。就這樣。我只是——這是一個價格成本問題，我只是想找到解決方案。

I don't know what currency numbers you're using, and how you're getting those. All I can just tell you is that, when you look at fourth quarter last -- this year -- or fourth quarter '17 versus fourth quarter '16, you had the effects of material cost movements was the single biggest factor, beneficial in '16, challenging in '17. The parts incentives had a bit of an impact. And those are -- sort of the two biggest factors. And as you look forward into next year, those sort of tend to reverse. And you got the European and North American mix favorable as we get into the first quarter.

我不知道你使用的是什麼貨幣單位，也不知道你是如何取得這些單位的。我只能告訴你，當你比較去年第四季、今年第四季或 2017 年第四季與 2016 年第四季時，你會發現材料成本變動的影響是最大的單一因素，2016 年是有利的，2017 年是具有挑戰性的。零部件補貼起了一定的作用。而這可以說是兩個最重要的因素。展望明年，這些情況往往會逆轉。進入第一季度，歐洲和北美市場的組合情勢對我們有利。

And just to be clear, maybe I misheard you. I thought earlier, you did give us the currency impact for the quarter. It was $142 million for revs and $8 million for profit, so...

還有，為了避免誤解，也許是我聽錯了。我之前以為您已經給出了本季匯率影響的情況。營收為1.42億美元，利潤為800萬美元，所以…

And that's for the total company. Total revenues, total profitability, truck parts, finance, et cetera, et cetera.

這是整個公司的情況。總收入、總利潤、卡車零件、財務等等。

Okay. So I was giving it all to the truck part, I think is the large majority. But again, just so I'm clear, price cost next year, what's the base? Is it a neutral after this year, a negative -- or sorry, '17 a negative? Just making sure we understand the puts and takes.

好的。所以我認為我把所有的精力都投入了卡車部分，這部分佔了絕大部分。但為了確保我理解正確，我再說一遍，明年的價格成本是多少？基準價格是多少？今年之後是中性、負面——或者抱歉，2017 年是負面的？只是想確保我們理解買賣雙方的規則。

Yes, I'd say at this point, we're probably thinking about it neutrally.

是的，我認為目前我們可能對此持中立態度。

Your next question comes from Mike Shlisky with Seaport Global.

下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Mike Shlisky。

Wanted to touch on the used truck market again. It's certainly great of course that your brands have good value retention over time and get solid pricing. But if we have a fairly strong 2018 for new truck sales, is there a risk that the supply of trade-ins on the used side rises as we go through 2018, and that pricing could come down a bit? And can you give us color as to what PACCAR has done to kind of work with their dealers, since the last time we had high inventories on the used side, to kind of keep the impact small, going forward?

想再談談二手卡車市場。當然，品牌能夠長期保持良好的價值留存率並獲得穩定的定價，這當然是件好事。但是，如果 2018 年新卡車銷量相當強勁，那麼隨著 2018 年的推進，二手車市場的置換供應量是否有可能增加，從而導致價格略有下降？能否詳細介紹一下，自上次二手車庫存高企以來，PACCAR 與經銷商合作採取了哪些措施來盡量減少未來的影響？

Yes. So as we think about used trucks, I mean, we're seeing good demand for used trucks as we sit here today, and no reason to indicate that that's not going to continue for the near term. We've done a lot of things to support our ability to handle greater volumes of used trucks. We built a new used truck center in the Chicago area. It's been open now just about a year. We're just opening another used truck facility in the Los Angeles area, in Fontana. And so we continue to enhance our internal abilities. And obviously, we've always worked very closely with our dealers on the distribution of used trucks through the market. So we've done a lot of things to enhance our capabilities over the last several years.

是的。所以，當我們考慮二手卡車時，我的意思是，就目前而言，我們看到二手卡車的需求很好，而且沒有理由表明這種情況在短期內不會持續下去。我們採取了很多措施來提高我們處理更多二手卡車的能力。我們在芝加哥地區新建了一家二手卡車中心。這家店開業至今差不多一年了。我們即將在洛杉磯地區的豐塔納開設另一家二手卡車交易中心。因此，我們不斷提升自身內部能力。顯然，我們一直與經銷商密切合作，共同將二手卡車分銷到市場上。因此，在過去的幾年裡，我們做了很多事情來增強我們的能力。

Okay, got it. And then secondly, just on parts, can you tell us how many TRP parts stores opened in the quarter, and kind of how far along are you to a full build-out to what you're hoping to do globally?

好的，明白了。其次，關於零件方面，您能否告訴我們本季度開設了多少家 TRP 零件商店，以及您在全球範圍內全面建設的計劃進展到什麼程度？

Well, I don't know how many during the quarter. I know we finished over 128 year-end, and we're over 130 as we sit here today. I don't think we have a view of what full population is. And just as we continue to add dealer locations for Peterbilt, Kenworth, DAF, we'll add locations for TRP to meet market demand as they develop. So there's no end number or endgame in sight. It's just, continue to take advantage of distributing parts to all the areas that -- where we can support our customers.

嗯，我不知道這個季度有多少。我知道我們年底的時候超過了 128，現在我們已經超過了 130。我認為我們對完整的人口數量還沒有清晰的認識。正如我們不斷增加 Peterbilt、Kenworth、DAF 的經銷商網點一樣，隨著市場需求的成長，我們也會增加 TRP 的網點以滿足市場需求。所以目前還沒有最終的數字或結局。就是要繼續利用向所有我們能夠為客戶提供支援的地區分發零件的優勢。

Can I ask then, I mean, is that a big piece of the 5% to 8% growth you've got planned for parts in 2018? Are there additional locations planned with -- for stock ups coming here? Or is it the -- is the vast majority of your growth for '18 organic parts growth?

那麼我可以問一下，這是否是您計劃在 2018 年實現的 5% 到 8% 的零件成長目標中的重要組成部分？這裡是否有計劃增設其他補貨地點？或者說，2018 年的大部分成長都是有機成長嗎？

I'd say it's a combination of both. I think it's the programs, it's the population of vehicles and it's TRP expansion.

我認為是兩者兼而有之。我認為是節目、車輛數量和TRP擴張造成的。

Your next question comes from Mike Baudendistel with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Mike Baudendistel。

I just wanted to ask you if you had any preliminary expectations for Class 8 market share in 2018. I mean, does it decline from the -- what it was in 2017, if there's a big shift to -- from vocational trucks to -- sales to large fleets?

我只是想問您對 2018 年 8 級市場份額是否有任何初步預期。我的意思是，如果銷售重心從專用卡車轉向大型車隊，那麼銷售量是否會從 2017 年的水準下降？

No, I -- our teams will -- they've worked very hard over the years to develop the market share. When I started with the company 24 years ago, Peterbilt and Kenworth had a combined share of 21%. And over the 24 years, they've been able to increment that to 25%, to 28% and to now 30%. And so our view is to continue to develop the best trucks in the market, provide the best value for our customers and organically grow our share profitably in our primary markets. So that will be our focus for 2018 as well.

不，我——我們的團隊會——他們多年來一直在努力拓展市場份額。24 年前我剛加入公司時，彼得比爾特和肯沃斯兩家公司合計佔有 21% 的市佔率。在過去的 24 年裡，他們已經能夠將這一比例提高到 25%，28%，現在又提高到 30%。因此，我們的目標是繼續研發市場上最好的卡車，為客戶提供最大的價值，並在我們的主要市場中實現有機成長，從而獲得盈利。所以，這也會是我們2018年的工作重點。

Got it. And I also just wanted to ask you, is there anything we should be thinking about in terms of the mix impact of TRP? I mean, if TRP consists of a larger portion of your total parts business, does that because a drag on margins and parts at all?

知道了。另外，我還想問一下，關於TRP的混合影響，我們有什麼需要考慮的嗎？我的意思是，如果 TRP 在您的零件業務總量中所佔比例較大，這是否會對利潤率和零件供應造成拖累？

No, I -- it's -- in terms of the percentage, it's in the 10% to 15% of total sales range. And so I don't see it being a major factor in parts margins.

不，就百分比而言，它佔總銷售額的 10% 到 15%。因此，我認為它不會成為零件利潤率的主要因素。

Your next question comes from Joe O'Dea with Vertical Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Joe O'Dea。

First question is just on build rates. And are you currently building to the kind of volumes that you expect in 2018? Or do you think that there's still some upward move in where your build is, to hit kind of in the midpoint of your expectations?

第一個問題只是關於建造速度。你們目前的產量是否達到了2018年的預期產量？或者你認為你的身材還有提升的空間，可以達到你預期目標的中等程度嗎？

Well, as we have progressed into 2018, we have taken some additional build rate increases, both in North America and Europe to support demand. And so we'll maintain that as long as the demand is there.

隨著我們進入 2018 年，為了滿足需求，我們在北美和歐洲都進一步提高了生產速度。所以，只要有需求，我們就會維持現狀。

Okay. And then a quarter ago, you talked about the sort of 14% to 15% gross margin range. It looks like initial expectations for '18 are that you'd kind of be in the middle of that range. There are industry forecasts out there with volumes, particularly in North America, well above where you are currently. If we think about the market maybe trending closer to those expectations versus yours, how do you think about the operating leverage on that? Would that mean gross margin closer to the higher end of the range? Are there reasons why we shouldn't anticipate some leverage on that?

好的。而就在一個季度前，您曾談到毛利率在 14% 到 15% 之間。看來 2018 年的初步預期是，你會處於這個範圍的中間位置。業界已有預測，尤其是北美地區的銷售量將遠高於你目前的水平。如果我們認為市場走勢可能更接近這些預期而不是你的預期，你認為這會帶來什麼樣的經營槓桿效應？那是否意味著毛利率更接近該範圍的高端？我們有什麼理由不應該預期能在這方面獲得一些優勢嗎？

We'll -- there's just no -- I guess, I mentioned earlier, there's a lot of factors that impact that overall margin outcome. And we feel really good about what we're seeing and expecting for the first quarter. The rest of year, there could be opportunities. We'll just have to see how the year develops.

嗯——就是沒有——我想，我之前提到過，有很多因素會影響最終的利潤率結果。我們對第一季的現況和預期都感到非常樂觀。今年剩下的時間裡，或許還有機會。我們只能拭目以待，看看今年情況會如何發展。

Your next question comes from Neil Frohnapple with Buckingham Research.

下一個問題來自白金漢研究公司的尼爾‧弗羅納普爾。

Ron, can you give us more granularity on the outlook for the European above 16-tonne market for this year? What are the drivers to get you kind of to the higher end of the range and then conversely, the lower end? And as a follow-up, can you share anything regarding the trends in your order book for DAF in Europe, like you've done in prior quarters?

Ron，你能否更詳細地介紹今年歐洲16噸以上卡車市場的前景？哪些因素會促使你達到產品系列的高端水平，反之亦然，達到低端水平？作為後續問題，您能否像前幾季一樣，分享一下您在歐洲的 DAF 訂單趨勢？

Yes, orders for DAF have been very strong. When we look at quarter -- fourth quarter, compared to the, say the fourth quarter in the prior year, I think they're up about 20%?

是的，DAF的訂單非常強勁。如果我們看一下季度數據——例如第四季度與去年同期相比，我認為成長了大約 20%？

27% up.

上漲27%。

27% up. So as I mentioned, we've taken some additional plans to increase our build rate this quarter. And so it's going to be dependent on the market. You look at the tonne freight activity in Germany in the month of December, I think the activity was up 6% in the month of December, and for the full year, up about 4%. So we enter the beginning of this year with strong freight activity. DAF obviously has a great product, just won Truck of the Year in the fourth quarter, and that -- those products provide up to 7% improved fuel efficiency. So it's a great value proposition for the customers, if the customers haven't bought trucks for 4 or 5 years. Today's trucks, it's double-digit improvement in terms of operating efficiency. So there's a lot of reason for customers to purchase new vehicles, take advantage of the lower operating cost.

上漲27%。正如我之前提到的，我們已經採取了一些額外的計劃來提高本季的生產速度。所以最終取決於市場狀況。如果你看一下德國 12 月的噸位貨運量，我認為 12 月的貨運量增加了 6%，全年增加了約 4%。因此，今年年初貨運活動十分活躍。DAF 的產品顯然很棒，剛剛在第四季度贏得了年度卡車獎，而且——這些產品可提高高達 7% 的燃油效率。因此，對於 4 到 5 年沒有購買過卡車的客戶來說，這是一個非常划算的交易。如今的卡車，在營運效率方面實現了兩位數的提升。因此，消費者有許多理由購買新車，以享受更低的營運成本。

Okay, great. And then Ron, given the outlook for North America heavy-duty industry production to continue to increase this year, and it sounds like you guys have already increased your daily build rate. As we begin to close in on the recent peak 2015 levels, does PACCAR have enough capacity in its factories to support this level of demand, or if the market continues to inflect higher, considering where your market share is today versus just a few years ago?

好的，太好了。羅恩，鑑於北美重型工業生產今年的前景將繼續增長，而且聽起來你們已經提高了每日生產速度。隨著我們逐漸接近 2015 年的近期峰值水平，PACCAR 的工廠產能是否足以滿足這一需求水準？如果市場繼續走高，考慮到您目前的市場份額與幾年前相比如何？

Yes, we definitely do. And we continue to monitor that and make the investments. As you know, we completed the Westerlo paint facility in Europe last year, which basically increased the capacity of our paint operations in Europe by about 50%. And we continue to monitor those capacity factors and make the investments. And so in our capital plans this year and next year, we'll continue to look at that, not just for our factories but obviously we're looking at that for our parts distribution activity as well. We're building the new PDC in Toronto and we're looking at some additional investment on the parts side to continue to support our customers with their truck up time.

是的，我們當然有。我們會持續關注並進行投資。如您所知，我們去年在歐洲完成了韋斯特洛塗裝廠的建設，這使我們在歐洲的塗裝業務產能提高了約 50%。我們將繼續監測這些產能因素並進行投資。因此，在今年和明年的資本計畫中，我們將繼續關注這一點，不僅是我們的工廠，顯然我們也在關注我們的零件分銷活動。我們正在多倫多建造新的PDC，並且正在考慮在零件方面進行一些額外的投資，以繼續支持我們的客戶，確保他們的卡車正常運行時間。

There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有其他補充說明嗎？

Yes, we'd like to thank everyone for their participation and thank you, operator.

是的，我們要感謝大家的參與，也謝謝操作員。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，PACCAR的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。