帕卡 (PCAR) 2018 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time.

早安，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2018 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的通話正在錄音，如有任何異議，請立即掛斷電話。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我謹向大家介紹 PACCAR 的投資者關係總監 Ken Hastings 先生。哈斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Joining me this morning are Ron Armstrong, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller.

早安.我們歡迎透過電話收聽的聽眾和透過網路直播收聽的聽眾。我是肯‧黑斯廷斯，PACCAR公司的投資人關係總監。今天早上和我一起出席的有：執行長 Ron Armstrong；總裁兼財務長 Harrie Schippers；以及高級副總裁兼財務總監 Michael Barkley。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results.

與以往的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有參與電話會議的媒體成員以只聽模式參與。今天公佈的某些資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的總體經濟和競爭狀況。

I would now like to introduce Ron Armstrong.

現在我來介紹羅恩·阿姆斯特朗。

Good morning. I first want to thank the investors and analysts who participated in our investor conference in Eindhoven in May. The DAF employees and the PACCAR team were proud to share DAF's world-class facilities and innovative products and services.

早安.首先，我要感謝五月參加我們在埃因霍溫舉行的投資人會議的投資人和分析師們。DAF 的員工和 PACCAR 團隊很榮幸能與大家分享 DAF 世界一流的設施和創新產品及服務。

PACCAR's pleased to report outstanding financial results for the second quarter of 2018. PACCAR achieved record quarterly sales and Financial Services revenues of $5.81 billion and strong net income of $560 million, a 9.6% after-tax return on revenues. Revenues were 23% higher, and net income was 50% higher compared to the second quarter last year.

PACCAR欣然宣布2018年第二季財務表現優異。PACCAR 實現了創紀錄的季度銷售額和金融服務收入，達到 58.1 億美元，淨收入強勁增長 5.6 億美元，稅後收入回報率為 9.6%。與去年第二季相比，營收成長了 23%，淨利潤成長了 50%。

PACCAR Parts generated record revenues and record pretax profits of $195 million, its sixth consecutive record profit quarter. PACCAR achieved excellent Truck, Parts and Other gross margins of 15%, driven by industry-leading products and services, robust global truck and aftermarket parts demand, and strong operational performance. I am extremely proud of our 27,000 employees who have delivered industry-leading products and services to our customers worldwide.

PACCAR Parts 創造了創紀錄的收入和創紀錄的稅前利潤 1.95 億美元，連續第六個季度創下利潤新高。PACCAR 憑藉業界領先的產品和服務、強勁的全球卡車和售後市場零件需求以及良好的營運業績，實現了 15% 的優異卡車、零件及其他業務毛利率。我為我們27,000名員工感到無比自豪，他們為全球客戶提供了業界領先的產品和服務。

PACCAR delivered a record 46,400 trucks during the second quarter, 5% more than the first quarter this year. U.S. and Canada Class 8 industry truck orders in the finals -- in the first 6 months of 2018 were more than double the orders in the first half of last year. DAF achieved record market share of 16.5% year-to-date this year. DAF's above 16-tonne orders were 26% higher in the first half of 2018 compared to the same period last year.

PACCAR公司第二季交付了創紀錄的46,400輛卡車，比今年第一季成長了5%。美國和加拿大 8 級卡車產業最終訂單——2018 年上半年的訂單量是去年上半年的兩倍多。今年迄今為止，DAF 的市佔率創下歷史新高，達到 16.5%。2018 年上半年，DAF 16 噸以上的訂單量比去年同期增加了 26%。

PACCAR's forecast for the European above 16-tonne market is a range of 300,000 to 320,000 units, reflecting strong freight and truck demand and a good economic outlook. We expect to deliver slightly more trucks in the third quarter this year compared to the second quarter. Deliveries will be higher in North America, partially offset by fewer build days in Europe due to the normal summer shutdown. Second half gross margins for Truck, Parts and Other will be similar to the first half.

PACCAR 對歐洲 16 噸以上卡車市場的預測是 30 萬至 32 萬輛，反映出強勁的貨運和卡車需求以及良好的經濟前景。我們預計今年第三季交付的卡車數量將比第二季略多。北美地區的交付量將會更高，但由於夏季正常的停工期，歐洲地區的生產天數減少，部分抵消了北美地區的交付量成長。卡車、零件及其他業務下半年的毛利率將與上半年相近。

The U.S. economy's growth is driving record freight tonnage. Customers are operating at high utilization levels and are expanding their fleets. We estimate the U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck industry retail sales to be in a range of 265,000 to 285,000 vehicles this year.

美國經濟成長推動貨運噸位創下歷史新高。客戶目前營運利用率很高，並且正在擴大車隊規模。我們估計今年美國和加拿大 8 級卡車行業的零售銷售將在 265,000 至 285,000 輛之間。

PACCAR Parts' quarterly pretax income of $195 million was 29% higher than a year ago. Pretax return on revenue was an excellent 20.1%. PACCAR's parts business generated record quarterly revenues of $968 million, 18% higher than in the same quarter of last year. These results were driven by the growing number of PACCAR trucks and engines in operation, PACCAR's investments in distribution centers, and the many innovative products and services offered by PACCAR Parts and our dealers. For the year, we expect part sales to increase by 13% to 15%.

PACCAR Parts 的季度稅前收入為 1.95 億美元，比去年同期成長了 29%。稅前收入報酬率高達 20.1%。PACCAR 的零件業務創造了創紀錄的季度收入，達到 9.68 億美元，比去年同期成長了 18%。這些成果的取得得益於PACCAR卡車和引擎營運數量的不斷增長、PACCAR對配送中心的投資，以及PACCAR零件和經銷商提供的眾多創新產品和服務。我們預計今年零件銷售額將成長 13% 至 15%。

PACCAR Financial Services' second quarter pretax income was $72 million, 16% higher than second quarter last year. The PACCAR financial portfolio performed very well. Used truck industry demand in the U.S. has increased, boosting used truck prices by 5% to 10% compared to last year.

PACCAR金融服務公司第二季稅前收入為7,200萬美元，較去年第二季成長16%。PACCAR金融投資組合表現非常優異。美國二手卡車產業的需求增加，導致二手卡車價格比去年上漲了 5% 至 10%。

PACCAR's strong balance sheet and positive cash flow have enabled the company to invest $3 billion in new products and facilities in the last 5 years. This year, capital expenditures of $425 million to $475 million and research and development expenses of $300 million to $320 million are targeted for new truck models; integrated powertrains including electric, hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell technologies; and new product technologies for advanced driver-assisted systems and truck connectivity. At our investor event in May, we were pleased to have the DAF CF electric and hybrid trucks available for the attendees to drive.

PACCAR 強勁的資產負債表和正現金流使公司在過去 5 年裡能夠投資 30 億美元用於新產品和新設施。今年，該公司計劃投入 4.25 億美元至 4.75 億美元的資本支出和 3 億美元至 3.2 億美元的研發費用，用於開發新型卡車車型；整合式動力系統，包括電動、混合動力和氫燃料電池技術；以及用於先進駕駛輔助系統和卡車互聯的新產品技術。在五月的投資者活動中，我們很高興能夠為與會者提供 DAF CF 電動和混合動力卡車進行試駕。

In May, PACCAR's Board of Directors increased PACCAR's regular quarterly dividend by 12% to $0.28 per share, and earlier this month authorized an additional $300 million share repurchase program. PACCAR is realizing the benefits of strong truck markets worldwide and is delivering the highest-quality products and services in the industry.

5 月，PACCAR 董事會將 PACCAR 的季度常規股息提高了 12%，達到每股 0.28 美元，並在本月初批准了一項額外的 3 億美元股票回購計劃。PACCAR 正在享受全球強勁卡車市場的好處，並提供業界最高品質的產品和服務。

Thank you, and I'd be pleased to answer your questions.

謝謝，我很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

（操作說明）您的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 公司的 Steve Volkmann。

So I guess I'm trying to get a sense of -- Ron, you talked a little bit about how used truck pricing is up 5% to 10%. Can you give us a sense of what you're seeing in new truck pricing? And then, sort of related to that, how far out now are you sort of quoting deliveries? And I'm trying to get a sense of how stretched out the backlog is and how much impact that might be having on your ability to get some price.

所以我想了解一下——羅恩，你剛才提到二手卡車的價格上漲了 5% 到 10%。您能為我們介紹一下您目前觀察到的新卡車定價情況嗎？另外，與此相關的是，你們現在大概可以預估多久的交貨時間？我想了解一下積壓訂單的情況有多嚴重，以及這可能會對你獲得報價產生多大的影響。

New truck pricing is up a bit. And we have seen commodity costs move up a bit during the course of the year. And our pricing -- our sales prices have moved up to offset that and earn a little bit additional margin. And on the backlog, backlogs are strong. We're taking a fair number of orders for 2019 build at this point. So the backlogs are really solid, really in almost all of our markets.

新卡車價格略有上漲。我們看到，今年大宗商品價格略有上漲。為了彌補這一損失並獲得額外的利潤，我們的定價——我們的銷售價格已經上調。積壓的工作量很大。目前我們已經接到了相當數量的 2019 年款訂單。因此，我們的訂單積壓情況非常穩定，幾乎在我們所有市場都是如此。

Okay. And then, I guess, in Europe specifically, I think you said DAF order is up 26% in the first half, and...

好的。然後，我想，尤其是在歐洲，我記得您說過DAF的訂單在上半年增長了26%，而且…

That's correct.

沒錯。

Obviously, the market growth rate is nowhere near that high in terms of your forecast. So it looks like this may be a year when DAF really gains quite a bit of market share. Or do you think there's some reason that DAF's order rates may fade in the second half?

顯然，市場成長率遠沒有你預測的那麼高。看來今年 DAF 的市佔率可能會大幅提升。或者您認為DAF的訂單率在下半年可能會下降，這其中有什麼原因嗎？

So we're at 16.5% year-to-date. And Harrie, what was the number for last year, for DAF?

所以今年迄今的成長率為 16.5%。哈里，去年DAF的數字是多少？

15.3%.

15.3%。

Yes, 15.3%. So almost a share point gain based on first half results. So DAF had great product introductions in the second half of last year with the new CF, XF and LF -- CF, XF won International Truck of the Year. The feedback in the trade press and from customers has just been outstanding. And so that's well-recognized, and that is really what's driving DAF's excellent performance for the first 6 months this year.

是的，15.3%。因此，根據上半年業績，市佔率幾乎成長了一個百分點。因此，DAF 在去年下半年推出了很棒的新產品，包括新款 CF、XF 和 LF——其中 CF 和 XF 贏得了國際年度卡車獎。來自行業媒體和客戶的回饋都非常出色。因此，這一點得到了廣泛的認可，而這正是 DAF 今年前 6 個月取得優異業績的真正原因。

Okay. And then, just a quick follow-up, and I'll let it go, is that, obviously, the markets are concerned about things peaking and sometimes I guess good is bad, or something like that. But I'm just curious if you have any opinion as to sort of what the length of this cycle might look like, and whether you feel like current conditions are sort of peaky and kind of as good as it gets.

好的。然後，我再補充一點，就此打住吧。顯然，市場擔心事物會達到頂峰，有時好反而會變成壞，或是諸如此類的事情。但我很好奇你對這個週期大概會持續多久有什麼看法，以及你是否覺得目前的情況已經達到頂峰，或者已經是最佳狀態了。

So I think as we mentioned in our press release, we feel very good about 2019 based on the demand that's in there for our excellent products. Parts business is great. Financial Services has got great new business volume. So we see no signs of abatement in terms of second half and heading into 2019.

所以我認為，正如我們在新聞稿中提到的那樣，基於市場對我們優秀產品的需求，我們對 2019 年充滿信心。零件業務非常好。金融服務業新增業務量大。因此，我們看不到下半年以及進入 2019 年有任何減弱的跡象。

And Steve, I would like to add if you look at the current market dynamics, a lot of the demand is driven by strong freight, strong economy, excellent fuel economy. And some of the prior cycles in 2007, 2010 and 2013, the demand was driven by prebuys or emission legislation, and that's different today.

史蒂夫，我想補充一點，如果你觀察一下當前的市場動態，你會發現很多需求都是由強勁的貨運量、強勁的經濟和出色的燃油經濟性所驅動的。在 2007 年、2010 年和 2013 年的一些前幾個週期中，需求是由預購或排放法規驅動的，而今天的情況有所不同。

Your next question comes from Steven Fisher with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

Just on the deliveries in the quarter were up, you said about 5% versus, I think the original guidance is 7% to 9%. To what extent was that due to supplier constraints? Or was it something else? Then, maybe you just broadly talk about supplier picture at the moment.

僅就本季交付量而言，您提到增長了約 5%，而最初的預期是 7% 到 9%。這在多大程度上是由於供應商的限製造成的？還是另有隱情？那麼，或許你可以大致談談目前供應商的狀況。

Yes. As I think -- as I've mentioned previously, that as we go up in build rates, it requires really close coordination with all of our suppliers. And as we work through the details, that was what was able to be delivered. And so teams purchasing, supplier quality, materials, plant guys, did a great job of working with our suppliers. And as we mentioned, we'll continue to see some upward momentum and build in the -- particularly in North America in the third quarter, as we continue to work with our suppliers to support demand from our customers.

是的。正如我之前提到的，隨著生產速度的提高，我們需要與所有供應商進行非常密切的協調。經過反覆推敲，最後呈現出了這樣的成果。因此，採購團隊、供應商品質團隊、材料團隊、工廠團隊都與我們的供應商合作得非常出色。正如我們之前提到的，我們將繼續看到一些上升勢頭，尤其是在第三季北美地區，因為我們將繼續與供應商合作，以滿足客戶的需求。

Do you think the supply chain constraints are materially eased at this point? Or are they relatively balanced and able to meet the production requirements that the industry needs? Or is it still...

你認為目前供應鏈的限制是否已得到實質緩解？或者它們相對平衡，能夠滿足產業所需的生產要求？或者它仍然…

Yes, I'd say balanced. Yes.

是的，我認為很平衡。是的。

Okay. And then, maybe just shifting gears a little bit, if you can talk about what you're seeing in the oil markets today. How much of your revenues are oil-related overall, and maybe how much you're getting in help from actually transporting of oil versus trucks needed in the production process?

好的。然後，或許可以稍微轉換一下主題，您能否談談您目前在石油市場觀察到的情況？你們的總收入有多少是與石油有關？你們從實際運輸石油中獲得的幫助，又有多少是來自生產過程中所需的卡車運輸？

Gosh, the oil segment really accounts for a small percentage of our total business. Peterbilt and Kenworth and DAF all have great products to support the industry, and we're seeing some benefits in that arena. But it's really -- we're seeing benefits in all areas. So oil is just not a significant piece of the total pie.

天哪，石油業務在我們總業務中所佔比例真的非常小。Peterbilt、Kenworth 和 DAF 都擁有優秀的產品來支持產業發展，我們在這個領域也看到了一些好處。但實際上——我們在各個領域都看到了好處。所以石油在整個經濟總量中所佔的份額並不大。

Your next question comes from Ross Gilardi with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅斯·吉拉迪。

I just wanted to get back to production. I mean, as you said, your DAF orders are up 26% in your first -- in the first half. I mean, your European deliveries were up like 12%. Rest of the world, up 15%. So clearly, production is -- has lagged thus far. I mean, the message coming out of the Investor Day seemed to be that capacity's a nonissue for DAF. I mean, have you rethought that at all, or why the actual lag on production versus orders?

我只想盡快恢復生產。我的意思是，正如你所說，你的 DAF 訂單在上半年增長了 26%。我的意思是，你們在歐洲的出貨量增加了大約 12%。世界其他地區上漲 15%。很明顯，生產目前一直落後。我的意思是，投資者日傳遞出的信息似乎是，對於捐贈者建議基金 (DAF) 而言，容量不是問題。我的意思是，你有沒有重新考慮過這個問題，或者說，為什麼實際生產進度會落後於訂單進度？

Well, I mean, if you look at North America, orders are double, and retail sales and production are nowhere near their order intake rates. And so the customers' order intake usually is more lumpy than production and retail sales. So it's just balancing longer-term production rates with order intake rates over a period of time. So I wouldn't read anything to that. The factory has plenty of capacity and in Europe as well. We work closely with our suppliers to support our ability to deliver timely to our customers based on their delivery expectations.

我的意思是，如果你看看北美，訂單量是其他地區的兩倍，但零售額和產量卻遠低於訂單量。因此，客戶的訂單量通常比生產量和零售量波動更大。所以，這只是在一段時間內平衡長期生產力和訂單接收率的問題。所以我不會對此做任何解讀。這家工廠產能充足，在歐洲也有工廠。我們與供應商緊密合作，以確保能夠根據客戶的交貨預期及時交付產品。

Now if you looked at the ACT data over the course of the second quarter, there -- for the overall market, there seemed to be a production hiccup in May that sort of bounced back in June. Did you experience any of that production slowdown, or have any issues with production in the U.S. in -- throughout the second quarter?

如果你查看第二季的 ACT 數據，你會發現——就整體市場而言，5 月似乎出現了生產小問題，但 6 月有所反彈。在第二季度，您是否遇到過生產放緩的情況，或者在美國的生產方面遇到任何問題？

No it's pretty normal for this time in the cycle.

不，這在生理週期的這個階段是很正常的。

Okay. And then, just with respect to the Class 8 orders, I mean of course -- I mean, they remain off-the-charts good. I mean, do you think there's any double or tripling -- triple ordering going on and to enable fleets to get in front of the production queue? And do you have any policies in place on down payments or otherwise to prevent double ordering? Any reason to think that, that's going on?

好的。至於 8 級訂單，我的意思是，當然——我的意思是，它們仍然好得超乎想像。我的意思是，你認為是否存在雙重或三重訂購的情況，以使艦隊能夠優先於生產隊列？你們是否有關於首付或其他方面的政策來防止重複下單？有什麼理由認為這種情況正在發生嗎？

We have long-term relationships with a lot of our customers. And I have no idea what they're doing with other makes, but we feel good about the backlog. And we're set at this point with good-quality long-term customers.

我們與許多客戶都保持著長期合作關係。我不知道他們對其他品牌的訂單處理情況如何，但我們對目前的訂單積壓感到滿意。目前我們已經擁有了一批優質的長期客戶。

Your next question comes from Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的安·杜伊尼安。

When we were sitting here a quarter ago, you said a couple of things about gross margins going forward. One, you said that your mix of truck deliveries will be more levered to fleets, and therefore that would weigh on margins. And then, I think you had expected parts to slow down, and also, mix to weigh on margin [SIR]. Could you just update us on both of those and what you did see in the quarter? Should we just take away from the strong gross margin that volume is a wonderful thing?

三個月前我們坐在這裡的時候，您談到了未來毛利率的一些問題。第一，您曾說過，您的卡車運輸組合將更依賴車隊，因此這將對利潤率造成壓力。然後，我認為你預料到部分業務會放緩，而且混合業務也會對利潤造成影響[SIR]。能否請您簡單介紹一下這兩方面的情況，以及您在本季觀察到的情況？我們是否應該因為毛利率高就斷定銷量是件好事？

Clearly, we saw the benefits of operating volumes in the quarter. Parts margins were 27.9% in the first quarter, 27.5% in the second quarter. As we look to the second half of the year, we think that the margins for the second half will be comparable to the excellent first quarter -- first half margins. So that 14.5%, 15% range.

很明顯，我們看到了本季營運量帶來的好處。第一季零件利潤率為 27.9%，第二季為 27.5%。展望下半年，我們認為下半年的利潤率將與上半年的出色表現——第一季的利潤率——相當。所以範圍在 14.5% 到 15% 之間。

So 14.5% to 15% now? So no fleet mix issues, no nothing? And what about FX? Is FX likely to weigh on margins, either at the gross level or at the EBIT level in the second half?

所以現在是14.5%到15%？所以不存在車隊結構問題，什麼問題都沒有？FX怎麼樣？匯率波動是否會在下半年對毛利率或息稅前利潤率造成壓力？

So what we saw on exchange rate is the benefit of exchange rate added to the margin dollars, but it didn't affect the margin percentage.

因此，我們看到匯率帶來的好處是加到了保證金美元上，但並沒有影響保證金百分比。

So it would be less of a tailwind if currency stays where it's at today?

如果貨幣匯率維持在目前的水平，那麼這種利多因素就會減弱嗎？

It was not a factor in terms of margin percentage. No.

這並非影響利潤率的因素。不。

Okay. And then, just following up on -- one of the things we'd heard -- we have the truck show in Hannover this year, once every 3 years, I believe? My understanding is that almost every OEM will have an electric truck on display. Will DAF be exhibiting electric vehicles at that show? And what can you tell us about what you'd expect to see by your competitors at this IAA?

好的。另外，我們之前聽說，今年漢諾威將舉辦卡車展，我記得好像是每三年一次？據我了解，幾乎所有汽車製造商都會展出一款電動卡車。DAF 會在那次展會上展出電動車嗎？您能否告訴我們，您預期您的競爭對手在本屆IAA車展上會有哪些表現？

I can't comment on what the competitors -- you've obviously seen ours. You've ridden in ours. So you've had a chance to take it around the test track. So yes, we'll have -- we'll display those at the Hannover show.

我無法評論競爭對手的情況——你們顯然已經看過我們的產品了。你坐過我們的車。所以你已經有機會在測試賽道上試駕過了。是的，我們會—我們會在漢諾威展會上展出這些展品。

Yes. And remember, mine was a manual drive too.

是的。而且別忘了，我的車也是手排的。

And you did a great job.

你做得非常出色。

You didn't make it easy for me. And then, just a quick follow-up on the 26% order increase for DAF versus 41% in Q1. What does that mean Q2 orders were year-over-year? And then, given that registrations are only up about 4%, I'm going to assume that these are dealer orders in anticipation of sales picking up. Is that the right interpretation? And I'll leave it there.

你沒讓我輕鬆過關。最後，快速跟進 DAF 訂單增加 26% 與第一季 41% 的增幅。那第二季訂單量年比是多少？而且，鑑於註冊量僅增長了約 4%，我假設這些是經銷商為預期銷量回升而下的訂單。這種解讀正確嗎？我就說到這裡吧。

The orders are typically driven by customer orders. And so yes, that's -- we obviously sell some stock trucks, but the vast majority of our orders are driven by customer demand. And so no exception with DAF. And Harrie, do you have the second quarter?

訂單通常是由客戶訂單驅動的。所以，是的，我們當然也會銷售一些庫存卡車，但我們絕大多數的訂單都是由客戶需求驅動的。因此，DAF也不例外。哈里，你有第二季的資料嗎？

Second quarter was up 10% compared to the second quarter last year. Last year, we had a strong second quarter too.

第二季比去年同期成長了10%。去年第二季我們的業績也很強勁。

Yes.

是的。

Your next question comes from Alex Potter with Piper Jaffray.

下一個問題來自 Alex Potter 和 Piper Jaffray。

I guess one -- maybe 2 questions on Europe. First of all, I was interested if you could comment on any mix trends that you're seeing. Obviously, not all trucks are created equal. So if it's a medium-duty truck versus heavy-duty trucks or Eastern Europe versus Western Europe. Anything that we should know about in terms of what that volume might mean for the margin profile of what you're delivering?

我想關於歐洲的問題可能有一到兩個。首先，我想請您談談您觀察到的任何混音趨勢。顯然，並非所有卡車都一樣。所以，無論是中型卡車與重型卡車，還是東歐與西歐。關於這個銷售量可能對你們產品的利潤率產生的影響，我們有什麼需要了解的嗎？

So I always say the share enhancement that has occurred has really been driven by the tractor side DAF for the first half of this year was the -- had the #1 tractor in the market in Europe. So again, the CF, XF, the fuel efficiency gains, the 7% or so on average fuel efficiency gain is really well appreciated by the on-highway long-haul customer. And so we did see a bit of an increase in that particular area.

所以我一直說，市場份額的提升實際上是由拖拉機方面推動的，今年上半年，DAF 在歐洲市場上擁有排名第一的拖拉機。所以，CF、XF 的燃油效率提升，平均約 7% 的燃油效率提升，確實受到了公路長途運輸客戶的歡迎。因此，我們確實看到該領域的成長有所增加。

Okay. And that should be margin-accretive if I'm reading that correctly. Is that right? Or would...

好的。如果我理解正確的話，這應該會提高利潤率。是這樣嗎？或者會…

Yes. Yes. Margins are all pretty representative when you talk about the heavy side.

是的。是的。談到重量級產品時，利潤率都相當具代表性。

Okay. And then, I guess, also on Europe, just if you could maybe take a step back. I know that historically it's not been maybe as violently cyclical as the U.S. If you could just, maybe, update us on your longer-term, I mean 2-, 3-, 4-year outlook for the European cycle. Not a specific forecast or anything, just sort of the general feel.

好的。然後，我想，關於歐洲，或許您可以退後一步思考。我知道從歷史上看，歐洲經濟週期可能不像美國那樣劇烈波動。如果您能為我們更新您對歐洲經濟週期的長期展望，例如2年、3年、4年，那就太好了。不是具體的預測，只是大概的感覺。

Just general feel, the economy has done -- has been in growth mode for 3 or 4 or 5 years. And the central bank and others are managing inflation and growth quite prudently. And so I -- there's nothing that we see in our radar that's going to change the economic outlook for Europe for the near midterm.

總體感覺是，經濟已經——已經處於成長模式 3、4 或 5 年了。央行和其他機構對通膨和經濟成長的管理相當謹慎。因此，就我們目前所見，沒有任何因素會改變歐洲近期中期的經濟前景。

Okay. Great. And then, last one. Specifically, on gross margin, you had mentioned there some gross margin numbers for parts in particular. It sounds like parts segment has been doing quite well, or at least no major downside from a gross margin standpoint, which I was a little bit surprised about. It seems like...

好的。偉大的。然後，最後一個。具體來說，關於毛利率，您提到了一些特定零件的毛利率數據。聽起來零件業務部門表現相當不錯，或者至少從毛利率的角度來看沒有出現重大下滑，這讓我有點驚訝。看起來好像…

I would go with quite well.

我會選擇“相當不錯”。

Yes. That's what it looks like. But it seems -- maybe I'm reading it incorrectly, but it's from sort of listening to comments from others across the supply chain, it seems like a lot of the pressure, to the extent that pressure exists from supply chain bottlenecks or steel, aluminum, things like that, has been borne primarily by parts. And people prefer to prioritize ordering or delivering the OEM-oriented parts instead of aftermarket. But apparently, you didn't see any of that. So I -- just any comments on that topic would be insightful.

是的。看起來就是這樣。但似乎——也許是我理解錯了，但從我聽取供應鏈上其他人的評論來看，似乎很多壓力，如果說供應鏈瓶頸或鋼鐵、鋁之類的壓力確實存在的話，主要都由零部件承擔了。人們更傾向於優先訂購或交付原廠配套零件，而不是售後零件。但顯然，你什麼都沒看到。所以，我——任何關於這個主題的評論都會很有見地。

I think, as we look -- obviously, you've got to keep the factory running, and so that is job one. But the suppliers have done a great job supporting our total business, both the factories and the aftermarket parts business. So at this point, we're in good shape from a supply and support standpoint.

我認為，當我們審視這個問題時——顯然，你必須確保工廠正常運轉，所以這是首要任務。但供應商們在支持我們的整體業務方面做得非常出色，包括工廠和售後零件業務。所以目前來看，從供應和支援的角度來看，我們的狀況良好。

Your next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

I'm wondering if you could talk about your expectations of gross margin cadence 4Q versus 3Q? Over the past 3 years, we've seen 4Q have lighter gross margins than 3Q, either because of timing of parts deliveries or rebates. And I just wanted to see if we could get just more granular comments from you folks. You mentioned back half margins look like first half. But does that mean 3Q higher than that, and 4Q lower than that? Can you just give us some more context on margin seasonality this year?

我想請您談談您對第四季與第三季毛利率水準的預期？過去 3 年，我們發現第四季的毛利率低於第三季度，這可能是由於零件交付時間或回饋造成的。我只是想看看能否從各位那裡得到更具體的評論。你提到後半部的邊距看起來和前半部一樣。但這是否意味著第三季會高於這個數字，而第四季會低於這個數字？能否再詳細解釋一下今年的利潤率季節性變化？

They'll be in the range that we talked about.

它們會在我們之前討論的範圍內。

For both 3Q and 4Q?

第三季和第四季都是如此嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And then, as you folks assess the impact on the supply base of the tariffs that were put in place on July 6, can you just talk about what's your rough sense on whether any of your suppliers could be impacted by tariffs? Do you have an early read on how that looks for your supply base?

好的。那麼，各位在評估7月6日實施的關稅對供應鏈的影響時，能否談談你們的粗略感覺，你們的供應商是否會受到關稅的影響？您是否初步了解了這對您的供應商群體有何影響？

Yes. I think the early read is that there's not going to be a significant impact to our business and our expectations for operations based on what we know now. As you know, things can change quickly in that arena.

是的。我認為初步判斷是，根據我們目前掌握的信息，這不會對我們的業務和營運預期造成重大影響。如你所知，那個領域的情況瞬息萬變。

Okay. And lastly, can you just update us on the productivity that you folks are seeing as you've ramped up production significantly in the U.S? What kind of productivity are you seeing from the labor force and the next round of production increases? Can you just give us a flavor for how much of that will be overtime versus new shifts?

好的。最後，能否請您介紹一下，隨著你們在美國大幅提高產量，生產效率方面的情況如何？您認為勞動生產力會達到什麼水準？下一輪生產成長又會如何？能否大致說明一下，其中有多少是加班，又有多少是新的輪班？

Most of it is just adding to the first or second shift -- mostly the second shift operation, to support our demands in our factories.

大部分只是增加第一班或第二班的運能——主要是第二班的運力，以滿足我們工廠的需求。

And the productivity that you're seeing as you're adding to that shift? How does that compare?

隨著這種轉變的進行，你所看到的生產力提升體現在哪裡？兩者相比如何？

It's consistent with what we typically would see. I mean, you're leveraging that fixed cost structure and the supervisory structure and management structure of the facilities as you go up, for sure.

這與我們通常看到的情況一致。我的意思是，隨著職位的提升，你肯定會利用設施的固定成本結構、監督結構和管理結構。

Your next question comes from Joel Tiss with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Joel Tiss。

I wonder -- can you give us a little bit of an update on Brazil, and maybe just talk generally about any other geographic markets that you're looking at that might turn out to be interesting?

我想問一下——您能否為我們介紹一下巴西的最新情況，以及您正在關注的其他可能有趣的地區市場？

Yes. Brazil -- the team, as we've talking about before, has done a great job of having a great product for the market. It's very well-received by our customers. We're going to continue to increment production. For the year, we'll probably deliver about twice as many trucks this year as we did last year, which will yield some further share growth, I think, through mid-month, or roughly at about a 6% share of the above 40-tonne market in Brazil. So team is doing great. We're being able to leverage the fixed costs, and so we'll continue to develop that business. The dealers are doing well. And so the long-term prospects for Brazil continue to be excellent. As you look at other parts of the world, Mexico, we continue to generate the highest share in our company at 35% or so share of the heavy market in Mexico. Australia is -- the economy is good, truck demand is good, building trucks at a strong rate in Australia. And demand for products outside of our primary markets in places like Russia, Turkey, is good. So it's good. Things are good around the world as we sit here today.

是的。巴西隊——正如我們之前討論過的，他們為市場打造了一款非常棒的產品，做得非常出色。我們的顧客對這款產品評價很高。我們將繼續提高產量。今年，我們的卡車交付量可能會是去年的兩倍左右，我認為這將帶來進一步的市佔率成長，到本月中旬，我們的市佔率將達到巴西 40 噸以上卡車市場的 6% 左右。所以團隊表現很棒。我們能夠利用固定成本，因此我們將繼續發展這項業務。經銷商們生意不錯。因此，巴西的長期前景依然十分光明。放眼世界其他地區，在墨西哥，我們公司仍佔據墨西哥重型設備市場約 35% 的份額，是該公司市場份額最高的地區。澳洲經濟情勢良好，卡車需求旺盛，澳洲卡車產量也維持強勁成長。在俄羅斯、土耳其等主要市場以外的地區，我們對產品的需求良好。所以這很好。我們今天坐在這裡時，世界情勢一片大好。

All right. And just a couple of, like, nitpicky. Can you talk a little bit about the $300 million going forward of share repurchases that aimed at just soaking up options? Or do you aim to take the share count down a little bit? And your inventories and receivables are up about 36%, which is well above your revenues. And I just wondered is there a strategy there to have a little extra parts inventory? Or is there something else going on?

好的。還有幾個小問題，算是吹毛求疵吧。您能否談談未來將斥資 3 億美元回購股票，旨在吸收選擇權收益的計畫？還是你們的目標是稍微降低一下分享次數？您的庫存和應收帳款成長了約 36%，遠高於您的收入。我只是想知道，是否有辦法儲備一些額外的零件庫存？還是有其他原因？

So the share repurchase, I mean, as you know, from time to time, we'll buy back shares. At the current bargain price, it's quite a deal. So we should be active in the market. And thinking about the receivables and inventory as you're -- as you may or may not recall, we typically close some of the factories down over the Christmas holiday period. And so inventories and receivables at year-end are lower than they are relative to activity levels, than if you look at the other 3 quarters of the year. And so we're seeing some effect of that on both of those metrics.

所以，關於股票回購，我的意思是，如你所知，我們會不時地回購股票。以目前的優惠價格來看，這絕對是一筆划算的買賣。所以我們應該積極參與市場。考慮到應收帳款和庫存情況，您可能還記得，我們​​通常會在聖誕節假期期間關閉一些工廠。因此，與一年中的其他三個季度相比，年末的庫存和應收帳款相對於其業務活動水準而言較低。因此，我們看到這對這兩個指標都產生了一定的影響。

Your next question comes from Seth Weber with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的塞思‧韋伯。

Just wanted to ask -- go back to the supply chain discussion for a second. Our -- is PACCAR making any extra investments in its suppliers to sort of help them along here? Or is it just kind of business as usual?

我想問一下——我們先回到供應鏈的話題來討論一下。我們的—PACCAR是否對其供應商進行任何額外投資以幫助他們發展？還是一切照舊？

I would say it's pretty much business as usual. But we've had a long history of where suppliers can benefit us and them from -- if there's a win-win circumstance, we're more than happy to make those investments and support suppliers -- to support PACCAR.

我覺得一切基本上照常。但我們一直以來都明白，供應商可以從中受益，而供應商也可以從中受益——如果存在雙贏的情況，我們非常樂意進行這些投資並支持供應商——以支持 PACCAR。

Okay. But nothing kind of unusual for CapEx?

好的。但這對於資本支出來說並沒有什麼不尋常之處吧？

Nothing of significance at this point.

目前還沒有什麼重要的事情發生。

Okay. And then, just follow-up just on the strength in the parts business. You raised the outlook, the revenue outlook there. Can you just -- maybe just frame what areas, whether it's engines or kind of just regular business activity has been surprising to you, or the source of the upside relative to your prior expectations?

好的。然後，再跟進分析零部件業務的強勁表現。你提高了預期，也就是收入預期。您能否具體說明一下，哪些領域（無論是引擎還是常規業務活動）讓您感到意外，或相對於您先前的預期，哪些方面出現了成長？

Yes. I'd say nothing surprising. But engines -- engine parts growth is higher than average because we're growing the part of PACCAR MX engines every day. We're putting 100% of PACCAR engines in DAF vehicles, and they're building at record production rates in Europe. We're putting 40% to 45% MX engines in Kenworth and Peterbilt trucks, which are at high production rates. And the engine has now been in the field for 8 years, and so we're starting to see just the ongoing benefits of the engine parts sales. Our teams have just done -- they put together some programs of supporting fleets. The TRP stores, the e-commerce initiatives, all those things are yielding just great results and support for our customers, a big focus with their uptime initiatives to service our customers in the best way in the industry. And that's recognized and it keeps customers coming back to PACCAR Parts on an ongoing basis.

是的。我覺得沒什麼好驚訝的。但是引擎—引擎零件的成長高於平均水平，因為我們每天都在增加 PACCAR MX 引擎的零件產量。我們將 100% 的 PACCAR 引擎組裝到 DAF 車輛上，而 DAF 在歐洲的生產速度則創下紀錄。我們在肯沃斯和彼得比爾特卡車中組裝了 40% 到 45% 的 MX 發動機，這些卡車的產量很高。這款引擎已經投入使用 8 年了，因此我們開始看到引擎零件銷售帶來的持續效益。我們的團隊剛剛完成了一些工作——他們制定了一些支持艦隊的計劃。TRP 商店、電子商務舉措等等，都為我們的客戶帶來了巨大的成果和支持，我們非常重視正常運行時間舉措，以業內最佳方式為我們的客戶提供服務。這一點得到了認可，也正是這一點讓客戶不斷回到 PACCAR Parts 購買產品。

Your next question comes from Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自富國證券的安迪凱西。

On the outlook, just going back to Seth's question from a different perspective. Parts up to 13% to 15% from prior 8% to 10%. At the midpoint, it kind of implies a slight decline, I mean, slight, like 1%, in the second half for revenue from the first half. And that's coming after 10 consecutive quarters of sequential growth, and then, clearly, also moderation year-over-year to about 10% from 18% in the first half. Can you help us with the key factors when you're looking into the second half that might be causing you to expect a flattening out?

關於前景，我們不妨從另一個角度來回答塞思的問題。部分零件含量從先前的 8% 至 10% 提高到 13% 至 15%。從中點來看，這似乎意味著下半年的收入會略有下降，我的意思是，只是略微下降，大概下降 1% 左右，與上半年相比。先前連續 10 個季度實現環比增長，但隨後同比增長明顯放緩，從上半年的 18% 降至 10% 左右。您能否幫我們分析一下，在展望下半年時，有哪些關鍵因素可能導致您預期成長會趨於平緩？

Yes. I think that's the conservative guys at corporate not listening to the parts guys, what they're going to be able to do. So the parts team is obviously doing a great job, a lot of initiatives ongoing. And so we're just -- appreciate that they've done -- the trends have been, and we expect -- we're just being a little bit conservative in terms of our outlook at this point.

是的。我認為這是公司裡那些保守派人士不聽零件部門人員的意見，不考慮他們能做什麼。顯然，零件團隊做得非常出色，目前正在進行許多專案。所以，我們只是——欣賞他們所做的——趨勢已經發展到這個程度，而且我們預期——目前我們對前景的展望會稍微保守一些。

Okay. And then, I'm just wondering, with the currency shifts that have occurred, maybe it's a little bit too early to see this. But has that impacted any export demand in any region? And if so, where are you seeing any sequential hesitation?

好的。然後，我只是在想，考慮到已經發生的貨幣變化，現在就看到這一點可能還為時過早。但這是否對任何地區的出口需求產生了影響？如果是這樣，你在哪裡發現了任何順序上的猶豫？

Well, I'm just sort of searching my mind. I can't think of currency impacting demand. Yes, I think demand is there. And currencies impact price realization or cost from time to time, but again, nothing significant.

嗯，我正在努力回想。我想不出匯率會對需求產生什麼影響。是的，我認為市場需求是存在的。匯率偶爾會對價格實現或成本產生影響，但同樣，影響不大。

Your next question comes from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的傑米庫克。

I guess, first question, just back to visibility that you guys cited into 2019, can you just talk about how far your visibility extends relative to sitting here last year? And was that comment specific just to North America or Europe as well? And then, my second question, as we think about 2019 if you think about what some of the industry experts are forecasting, I mean, should we expect -- can incremental margins, given where we are in the cycle, improve from this level? Or should we expect them to temper, just because the growth rates probably won't be as robust?

我想，第一個問題，回到你們提到的 2019 年的能見度問題，你們能談談與去年相比，你們的能見度提升了多少嗎？那番評論僅針對北美地區，還是也包括歐洲？那麼，我的第二個問題是，當我們展望 2019 年時，如果我們考慮一些行業專家的預測，我的意思是，鑑於我們目前所處的周期階段，我們是否應該預期增量利潤率能夠從目前的水平有所提高？或者我們應該預期他們會放緩步伐，僅僅因為成長率可能不會那麼強勁？

Yes, I -- if you look at the orders -- again, order backlogs are strong around the globe, and there's a -- order intake is a combination of current year and future year. And a lot of fleets are reserving spots for next year's build to make sure they get their trucks that they need. And so we're in great shape from that perspective. And from a margin standpoint, we've sort of talked about what we expect for the second half, and we'll see what next year brings.

是的，如果你看一下訂單——再次強調，全球訂單積壓情況都很嚴重，而且——訂單量是當年和未來幾年訂單的綜合。許多車隊都在為明年的生產預留名額，以確保他們能夠獲得所需的卡車。所以從這個角度來看，我們處境非常有利。從利潤率的角度來看，我們已經討論過下半年的預期，明年會發生什麼，讓我們拭目以待。

But is your visibility greater as we sit here today versus last year? Or comparable?

但就目前而言，您的視野是否比去年更開闊？或類似的？

Oh, yes. Yes. No -- yes, I think -- yes, for sure. Yes.

哦是的。是的。不——是的，我想——是的，肯定的。是的。

Okay. And then, you've said before, normalized incremental margins are sort of 15% to 20%. Is that off the table going forward?

好的。然後，正如你之前所說，標準化增量利潤率大約在 15% 到 20% 之間。以後是否已經排除這種可能性了？

I don't think that's -- that's what it's been for years, up and down. So I think that's pretty good metric.

我不認為情況是這樣——多年來一直都是這樣，起起伏伏。所以我認為這是一個很好的衡量標準。

Your next question comes from Courtney Yakavonis with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Courtney Yakavonis。

Just going back to Steve's question on pricing. I think you guys have mentioned in the past that you've been able to get a little bit better pricing in some of your smaller truck orders. So I'd just be curious, in the backlog right now, has it been a lot of those big orders from large fleets? Or have the -- has a lot of the pricing been coming through still on those smaller orders to offset commodity costs? And then, also, are you getting any pricing on the parts business? Or is that all volume?

回到史蒂夫關於定價的問題。我想你們之前提到過，你們在一些小型卡車訂單中能夠獲得更優惠的價格。所以我很好奇，目前積壓的訂單中，是不是有很多來自大型艦隊的大訂單？或者說，很多小單的價格仍在下降，以抵銷大宗商品成本？另外，你們有沒有拿到零件業務的定價資訊？或者說，那隻是全部的音量？

I think the pricing has been pretty normal in terms of the mix of customers that are in the build as well as in the backlog. So I don't think there's any particular mix difference. And on the parts side, pricing is -- again, it's a competitive market in our -- we constantly monitor what's the competitive price that we need to achieve our goals and targets. And the team does a good job of managing that on an ongoing basis. I think you'll see in the 10-Q analysis that we're seeing some price realization in the parts business in the first half this year.

我認為，考慮到正在生產和正在等待訂單的客戶群，目前的定價相當正常。所以我覺得兩者在成分上並沒有特別的差別。而就零件方面而言，定價——同樣，在我們這裡是一個競爭激烈的市場——我們會不斷監控我們需要達到的競爭性價格，以實現我們的目標和指標。而且團隊在持續管理這方面做得很好。我認為你會從 10-Q 分析中看到，今年上半年零件業務的價格已經有所回落。

Okay. Great. And then, just when we think about the used market, I just -- you've obviously talked about how the pricing has been up. And just curious, is there anything about the mix of the used market right now? Is it younger than it's historically been? Are there more automated versus manual trucks in it? Or anything we should be thinking kind of what the used market looks like today?

好的。偉大的。然後，當我們想到二手市場時，我就——您顯然已經談到了價格上漲的情況。我很好奇，目前二手車市場的組成有什麼情況嗎？它比歷史上任何時期都年輕嗎？其中自動化卡車比人工駕駛卡車多嗎？或者我們應該思考一下，如今二手市場究竟是什麼樣子？

I would say, from our used truck perspective, what you'll see is the trucks that are coming back starting now going forward are more of the latest developed trucks, the Euro 6 trucks, the model 2.1 meter trucks in North America, which will have some benefit on our used truck pricing as we move forward.

從二手卡車的角度來看，我認為，從現在開始，重新進入市場的卡車將更多地是最新開發的卡車，例如歐6卡車、北美地區的2.1米車型卡車，這將對我們的二手卡車定價產生一定的影響。

Your next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

Just a straightforward question, I must have missed this. Price versus cost in the quarter just reported, did it improve from what we saw in the first quarter? And the rest of the year, does price versus cost, not just pricing, but price versus cost, improve from here?

我只是想問一個簡單的問題，我可能錯過了。最新公佈的季度價格與成本相比，是否有改善？而今年剩餘時間裡，價格與成本（不只是定價，而是價格與成本）是否會從目前的情況有所改善？

No, I think it was -- the second quarter was similar to what we saw in the first quarter. And I think -- without -- I think it will be similar in the second half of the year.

不，我認為是的——第二季度的情況與第一季類似。而且我認為──如果沒有──我認為下半年情況也會類似。

Okay. And again, I might have missed this. The extension of the orders, the visibility into '19, can you quantify it a little bit, or give us some sense of what percent of the builds for say, first half of '19 are spoken for, assuming all the orders stick?

好的。我可能又錯過了這一點。訂單的延期，以及對 2019 年的可見性，您能否稍微量化一下，或者讓我們大致了解一下，假設所有訂單都能兌現，2019 年上半年的生產計劃中有多少百分比已被預定？

No, we don't want to talk about that at this point.

不，我們現在不想談論這件事。

Your next question comes from Sameer Rathod with Macquarie.

下一個問題來自麥格理銀行的Sameer Rathod。

I think there's been some recent discussion about the current administration revoking clean air waivers in the state of California. Any potential thoughts or any thoughts on the potential impact that could have on the truck market?

我認為最近有一些關於現任政府撤銷加州清潔空氣豁免權的討論。大家對這可能對卡車市場的潛在影響有什麼想法嗎？

We just -- it's so hypothetical, we don't really think about that. We know what the current law is. We know what has been established for Greenhouse Gas Phase 2 for 2021, 2024 and 2027, and we're managing our business to deal with what we know, and so that's what we're focused on. If something were to change, we can deal with that at the time, but right now, we're focused on the laws that exist.

我們只是──這只是假設，我們根本不會去想這個問題。我們知道現行法律是什麼。我們知道 2021 年、2024 年和 2027 年溫室氣體第二階段的既定目標，我們正在根據我們已知的情況來管理我們的業務，所以這就是我們關注的重點。如果情況有變，我們可以到時再處理，但目前，我們專注於現有的法律。

Okay. I guess my next question is on labor. Are you having difficulty finding labor in any of your facilities?

好的。我想我的下一個問題是關於勞動的。你們旗下任何一家工廠在招工上遇到困難嗎？

No. The -- we have great facilities. We have a great place to work. We provide a great salary and benefits package for our employees. And so we're fortunate in that we're in communities that, that's well recognized. And when we typically recruit for people to support build rates, we don't have any problem increasing our headcount to support that.

不。我們擁有非常棒的設施。我們這裡有個很棒的工作場所。我們為員工提供優良的薪資和福利待遇。因此，我們很幸運，因為我們身處的社區對此有充分的認可。通常情況下，當我們招募人員來支持生產速度時，我們增加員工人數來支持生產速度不會有任何問題。

Your next question comes from Joe O'Dea with Vertical Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Joe O'Dea。

When you talk about customers now ordering for 2019, and I think what you talked about was these are some large fleets who are trying to make sure that they get build slots. Typically, we think about model year, at this point 2020, prices is not really being set. And I think there's some speculation that some of these orders could be an attempt to get in front of more price increases. I guess, how do you address that? And how do you make sure that you take advantage of the opportunity to price in the strong demand environment and not give some of that away by just early orders?

當您談到客戶現在正在訂購 2019 年的訂單時，我認為您所說的是，這些都是一些大型車隊，他們正在努力確保獲得生產名額。通常情況下，我們考慮的是車型年份，目前是 2020 年，價格還沒有真正確定。而且我認為有人猜測，這些訂單可能是為了搶在價格進一步上漲之前做好準備。我想，該如何解決這個問題呢？如何確保把握強勁需求環境下的定價機會，而不是因為提早下單而錯失良機？

Well, again for those transactions, there's typically multiple brands competing, and you have to be competitive in the marketplace. So it's what the market will bear.

嗯，同樣地，在這些交易中，通常會有多個品牌競爭，你必須在市場上具有競爭力。所以最終取決於市場能承受多少。

Well, I guess, just have you seen that competitive dynamic ease at all, as backlogs have done what they've done, and lead times have extended, and when you get those multi-brand competitions in the bids, have you seen a little bit less price competition on those?

我想問的是，隨著積壓訂單的增加和交貨時間的延長，以及多品牌競標的出現，您是否注意到競爭動態有所緩和？您是否注意到價格競爭減少？

No, I'd say it's very typical. It's very, very, very typical of normal circumstances.

不，我覺得很典型。這非常、非常、非常符合正常情況。

Okay. And then, when we think about Europe and where you're sizing the over 16-tonne market, midpoint about 310,000, at 16.5% share, that would be 51,000 units or so. I mean, it looks like you're on a delivery pace that would be slightly north of 60,000. Can you just talk about the medium-duty, how big that is? And are some of these deliveries going to dealers who are trying to stock on the new trucks, just given stronger demand levels there?

好的。然後，當我們考慮歐洲市場，以及你對16噸以上卡車市場的規模估計，中間值約為310,000輛，市場份額為16.5%，大約是51,000輛左右。我的意思是，看起來你的交付速度略高於 6 萬件。能簡單介紹一下中型卡車嗎？它到底有多大？這些交付的車輛中是否有些是給經銷商的，因為經銷商對新卡車的需求比較旺盛，所以他們才進貨？

We're selling -- we sell a lot of trucks outside of the European market, so Russia, Turkey, Africa, Middle East, South America, Australia. So those -- the truck production from Eindhoven and Leyland is not just for the European market, it's for the globe.

我們在海外市場銷售許多卡車，包括歐洲市場以外的國家，如俄羅斯、土耳其、非洲、中東、南美洲和澳洲。所以，埃因霍溫和利蘭生產的卡車不僅面向歐洲市場，也面向全球市場。

Okay. But I guess it's -- I mean, if U.K. is going down and you've got strong share there, where is it that you're seeing some of the share outperformance now?

好的。但我想說的是──我的意思是，如果英國股市下跌，而你又在英國擁有強大的市場份額，那麼你現在看到哪些股票表現優異呢？

So we're doing really well in Central Europe, Eastern Europe. Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary is where we've grown share significantly, but also markets like Germany, France and Spain.

我們在中歐和東歐的業務發展得非常好。我們在波蘭、捷克、匈牙利等市場取得了顯著的份額成長，德國、法國和西班牙等市場也是如此。

Your next question comes from Mike Shlisky with Seaport Global.

下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Mike Shlisky。

So I wanted to start with the R&D budget. The run rate so far this year in the first half is at the low end of your outlook for the full year. I was kind of wondering if you anticipate a ramp-up in spending in the back half of the year? And can you give us a sense of what you might be seeing as far as the R&D run rate in 2019 as well?

所以我首先想談談研發預算。今年上半年目前的勝率處於你對全年勝率預期的下限。我想問一下，您是否預計下半年消費支出會大幅增加？能否也談談您對 2019 年研發投入成長的看法？

I think I look at the second half, the quarter is probably $75 million to $80 million a quarter. And next year, I don't -- I think the pace of spending would be similar to this year.

我認為，如果著眼於下半年，每季的收入可能在 7,500 萬美元到 8,000 萬美元之間。明年，我認為支出速度會跟今年類似。

Great. And I also want to just get a quick detail on Brazil and how it's going there. Clearly, you've had very well-received models over there. My question is, there was a truckers' strike during the second quarter here where there was some freight that was jammed up on the highways or sort of didn't get on the road. Those disputes are kind of continuing. I was wondering if there was any impact to your business in the quarter, and could there be some pent-up demand postelection late in '18 into 2019, once it all gets sorted out?

偉大的。我還想快速了解巴西的情況以及那裡的發展狀況。顯然，你們的模型在那邊很受歡迎。我的問題是，第二季度這裡發生了卡車司機罷工，導致一些貨物堵塞在高速公路上，或者根本無法上路。這些爭端似乎還在繼續。我想知道本季您的業務是否受到了影響，以及在 2018 年底到 2019 年大選結束後，一旦所有問題都得到解決，是否會有一些被壓抑的需求釋放出來？

So the truckers' strike, it affected the entire country in terms of shipments, and so yes, parts getting into the factory. There was a week or so where that was a challenge. But those trucks are -- have been made up or are being made up as we speak. The Brazilian economy has lots of potential. And we're seeing growth this year absent the truckers' strike. And the demand from customers is excellent, and particularly for the DAF product. And so we're optimistic. As we mentioned, we're going to be increasing our build rates in the second half of the year and hope that, that continue to build -- to grow our business in the future.

所以卡車司機罷工影響了全國的貨物運輸，因此，是的，零件無法運進工廠。那段時間大約有一周左右的時間，這確實是個挑戰。但那些卡車要不是虛構的，就是正在被虛構出來。巴西經濟潛力大。即使沒有卡車司機罷工，我們今年也看到了成長。顧客的需求非常好，尤其是對 DAF 產品的需求。因此我們持樂觀態度。正如我們之前提到的，我們將在今年下半年提高產量，並希望產量能持續成長，從而在未來發展我們的業務。

Great. Just a quick follow-up on that as well. It's now year 4 or 5 that you're in Brazil in any kind of way. Is this the point where you start to see parts ramp up in that part of the world? Or is that more of a year 6, 7, 8, story there?

偉大的。我再補充一下這個問題。你以任何方式在巴西生活至今已有 4 或 5 年了。這是不是意味著世界那個地區的零件生產開始加速推進了？或者說，這更像是六年級、七年級、八年級的故事？

It's ramping up all the time. It's relatively low numbers relative to our other markets because of the extension truck parts. But it's basically increased -- incrementing every month as more and more trucks get in the field, more and more of our dealers get connected with the -- all the transport companies and get the service into the shops. So it's an ongoing growth business as we go forward.

情況一直在加劇。由於加長卡車零件的需求，這個數字相對於我們其他市場來說比較低。但基本上是增加了——隨著越來越多的卡車投入使用，越來越多的經銷商與所有運輸公司建立聯繫，並將服務引入商店，每個月都在增加。所以，隨著我們不斷前進，這將是一個持續成長的業務。

Your next question comes from Neil Frohnapple with Buckingham Research.

下一個問題來自白金漢研究公司的尼爾‧弗羅納普爾。

Ron, can you talk about the used truck pricing outlook in North America for the second half of the year and into 2019? I mean, it sounds like industry demand remains very strong for used trucks. But do you think that's the biggest risk for the Class 8 market in your view, given the increase in supply that could be hitting the market over the next few quarters?

羅恩，你能談談北美地區2019年下半年及全年二手卡車價格走勢嗎？我的意思是，聽起來業界對二手卡車的需求依然非常強勁。但考慮到未來幾季供應量可能會增加，您認為這是 8 級貨車市場面臨的最大風險嗎？

No, I don't feel that's a significant risk at all. In fact, it's -- there's good demand and...

不，我完全不覺得這是重大風險。事實上，需求很好…

And as lead times for new trucks go up, used trucks become more and more interesting alternatives.

隨著新卡車的交付週期延長，二手卡車變得越來越有吸引力。

Yes. So late model used is a very good market right now.

是的。所以，目前二手車市場行情非常好。

Okay. And you don't anticipate that changing or increases moderating at all from here?

好的。你預期這種情況不會有任何改變，或者說，從現在開始，這種緩和的趨勢不會有任何加劇嗎？

Yes. I think it feels like it's going to be a good second half and a good start to the first half for used trucks as we sit here today. But that's -- that will -- we'll see how it develops.

是的。就目前來看，我認為二手卡車市場下半年走勢良好，上半年開局也不錯。但那會怎麼樣——我們會看看它如何發展。

Okay. And as a follow-up to some earlier questions on the parts business. I mean, the sales growth for the parts business continues to exceed expectations. And I would certainly imagine it's outpacing the industry. And I understand you won't provide 2019 specific guidance, but is there any reason to think that the business can't continue to grow double digits in 2019 when -- considering the benefits, like MX engine penetration, the expansion of TRP?

好的。這是對之前一些關於零件業務問題的後續提問。我的意思是，零件業務的銷售成長持續超出預期。而且我完全可以想像，它的發展速度肯定超過了產業平均。我知道您不會提供 2019 年的具體指導，但是考慮到 MX 引擎滲透率、TRP 擴張等優勢，有什麼理由認為該業務在 2019 年不能繼續保持兩位數的成長呢？

Yes, we'll see how that develops. I don't have further comment at this point.

是的，我們拭目以待。我目前沒有其他評論。

Okay. And one last one, how much did TRP increase on a year-over-year basis in the quarter?

好的。最後一個問題，本季TRP年增了多少？

So if you look at TRP stores and the same-store sales, stores that had been in existence for more than 12 months, I think the comp is up like 20%.

所以，如果你看一下 TRP 門市和同店銷售額，也就是那些已經存在超過 12 個月的門市，我認為同店銷售額成長了約 20%。

Your next question comes from Rob Wertheimer with Melius.

下一個問題來自 Melius 公司的 Rob Wertheimer。

So maybe this is a tricky question to answer also, but it's also on parts. And you guys have had such tremendous execution and success in growing that business very steadily. Are you able to comment on the cyclicality of that business? I mean, should we expect, when the downturn comes, that -- I don't know whether you're getting 5 or 10 points of growth from cyclicality, or whether that's really all your own initiative. So I just don't know if you have any way to measure market share gains you've had, or upswing, downswing in that business that you expect, if there is an eventual downturn.

所以，這或許也是一個難以回答的問題，但它也與零件有關。你們在穩步發展這項業務方面取得了非常出色的執行力和成功。您能否就該行業的周期性發表一下看法？我的意思是，當經濟衰退來臨時，我們是否應該期待——我不知道你是從週期性因素中獲得 5 到 10 個百分點的增長，還是這完全是你自己的努力。所以我不知道您是否有任何方法來衡量您所獲得的市場佔有率成長，或您預期的業務波動情況，以及最終是否會出現下滑。

Yes, it's a difficult to measure market share. But I think, clearly, our business has grown at a faster rate than the overall industry. And again, I attribute that to all the initiatives that our teams have put together. If you look over time, obviously, the volatility of parts is much less than trucks. And it's the steady revenue and cash flow source that is there day in, day out.

是的，市場佔有率很難衡量。但我認為，很明顯，我們公司的成長速度比整個產業都要快。再次強調，這要歸功於我們團隊共同製定的所有措施。從長遠來看，很明顯，零件的波動性遠小於卡車。而且，它還能提供穩定、持續的收入和現金流。

No, it's been exceptional. And then, just a quick question just on the margin. I mean, there was a time a few years back when oil prices fell. And maybe you and some other parts businesses maybe picked up some margin, partly because of distribution costs falling. But at the end of the day, your margins just keep going up and up. So I assume that your competitiveness at these margin levels is as good as or better than ever. You don't have any fears on that point?

不，這簡直太棒了。然後，還有一個無關緊要的小問題。我的意思是，幾年前石油價格曾經下跌過一段時間。或許你和其他一些零件企業獲得了一些利潤，部分原因是分銷成本下降。但最終，你的利潤率只會不斷上升。因此，我認為你們在目前的利潤水平下的競爭力與以往一樣好，甚至更好。你在這方面沒有任何顧慮嗎？

No. Not at all.

不。一點也不。

Your next question comes from Mike Baudendistel with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Mike Baudendistel。

I saw the press release you're going to offer the PACCAR transmission with the MX-11 engine. Can you just talk a little bit about the share that PACCAR has within it that's vertically integrated on transmissions? Where you think that's going to go? And is that big enough to move the needle?

我看到了新聞稿，你們將為 MX-11 引擎提供 PACCAR 變速箱。您能否簡單談談 PACCAR 在變速箱垂直整合方面的份額？你覺得它會走向何方？這足以產生影響嗎？

Well, I apologize, Mike. I don't have a current sort of assessment of the penetration rate of that transmission with the engine, but it's excellent. I just don't know what that is. So let me -- we'll come back to you on that.

哦，對不起，麥克。我目前還沒有關於該變速箱與引擎匹配程度的評估數據，但它非常出色。我完全不知道那是什麼。那我就先說到這裡吧——我們稍後再討論這個問題。

Okay. No problem. And just wanted to ask you also, it seems like you have more sort of confidence on the electric market than you did maybe a couple of quarters ago when you said there really wasn't a lot of demand from customers. Can you just talk a little bit about sort of which -- where are you seeing that sort of extra demand versus a few quarters ago? What types of customers are demanding electric?

好的。沒問題。另外，我還想問一下，您現在似乎對電力市場更有信心了，而幾個季度前您曾說過，客戶的需求並不大。您能否稍微談談，與幾個季度前相比，您認為哪些方面出現了額外的需求？哪些類型的客戶需要電力？

Yes, I don't think there's much more demand. You just have to be prepared as the regulatory environment may dictate some level of zero-emission vehicles. So we've been quite active in developing our capabilities, and we'll continue to do so. The reality is the price of an electric vehicle is more than 2x the cost of a diesel engine. You've got some range issues, weight issues. So the economic viability of electric is not great. And so -- but you have to be prepared. So I don't think there's going to be a huge, huge demand for electric or hydrogen fuel cell that -- infrastructure and other things. It's just a lot has to happen for that to be any sizable portion of the markets in the next 5 or 10 years.

是的，我認為需求不會有太大成長。你必須做好準備，因為監管環境可能會規定一定比例的零排放車輛。因此，我們一直積極致力於提升自身能力，並將繼續這樣做。事實上，電動車的價格是柴油引擎汽車的兩倍以上。你遇到了一些續航里程和重量方面的問題。因此，電動車的經濟可行性並不高。所以——但你必須做好準備。所以我認為，對於電動車或氫燃料電池——基礎設施和其他方面——不會有巨大的需求。未來 5 到 10 年，要讓它佔據相當大的市場份額，還有很多事情需要發生。

Your next question comes from Adam Uhlman with Cleveland Research.

下一個問題來自克里夫蘭研究公司的亞當·烏爾曼。

First, let's start with the clarification on the deliveries that are expected in the third quarter. How much of an improvement are you looking for in North America? Should we look for above-normal seasonality as kind of make up some deliveries from the second quarter? And then, related to that, are we taking a normal summer shutdown in Europe, which is I think it's down like 10% from the second quarter. And if so, why not cut the summer schedule short to try to clear up some of the backlog in the customer deliveries?

首先，讓我們先來澄清一下第三季預計的交付情況。您希望北美地區的情況能有多大的改善？我們是否應該關注高於正常水平的季節性因素，以此來彌補第二季度的一些交付量？另外，與此相關的是，歐洲的夏季停工是否正常？我認為比第二季度下降了大約 10%。如果是這樣，為什麼不縮短夏季的生產計劃，以清理一些客戶交付的積壓訂單呢？

Yes. You just have to manage the vacation periods, et cetera, and this is the most efficient way to manage that vacation period. So it's proven over the years, it's the most efficient way. And so we'll be down in Europe a couple of thousand trucks, and that will be offset plus a little bit in North America.

是的。你只需要安排好假期等等，而這是管理假期最有效的方法。多年的實踐證明，這是最有效的方法。因此，我們將在歐洲部署數千輛卡車，而北美地區的卡車數量將略有增加。

Okay. And then, could you talk about the capacity that you have in North America today for the MX engine? If I were to order a truck with that engine versus a Cummins engine, is there any difference in lead times and availability?

好的。那麼，您能否談談目前貴公司在北美地區MX引擎的產能狀況？如果我訂購一輛配備該引擎的卡車而不是配備康明斯引擎的卡車，交貨時間和供貨情況會有區別嗎？

No. No. We've just completed about a $35 million investment in the Columbus engine factory to be able to increase machining capacity by about 40 engines a day. We also completed a similar-sized investment in Eindhoven to be able to machine MX-11 engines in Eindhoven. So we've -- we're in good shape from engine capacity standpoint for the foreseeable future.

不。不。我們剛剛完成了對哥倫布發動機工廠約 3500 萬美元的投資，使加工能力每天可增加約 40 台發動機。我們也在埃因霍溫完成了類似規模的投資，以便在埃因霍溫加工 MX-11 引擎。所以，從引擎容量的角度來看，在可預見的未來，我們的狀況良好。

Your next question comes from Rob Salmon with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rob Salmon。

As we look out to the third quarter with the delivery update, can you give us a sense if you've got a bunch of effectively red-tagged trucks that are just waiting on a couple of parts, in terms of seeing that sequential uptick on deliveries?

展望第三季的交付情況，您能否透露一下，是否有大量貼有紅色標籤的貨車正在等待幾個零件，以便我們了解交付量是否會逐季增長？

No. It's mostly just production rates that we are anticipating.

不。我們主要關注的是生產力。

Okay. That's helpful. And then, Ron, with your commentary about the used trucks, I think, being up about 5% to 10% compared to last year, can you give us a sense if that included the benefit from mix in terms of seeing a greater portion of the newer spec trucks that you guys are selling? Or is that just the broader market, and you think you're going to get more of a benefit in the second half as the specs start falling through your used?

好的。那很有幫助。羅恩，關於二手卡車，你提到銷量比去年增長了 5% 到 10%，你能告訴我們這是否包括了銷量組合帶來的好處嗎？例如，你們銷售的新款卡車在銷售中所佔比例較高？或者這只是更廣泛的市場情況，你認為隨著二手設備規格在下半年開始下降，你會從中獲得更多好處？

Yes, I'd say most of that is the broader market. And there will be some benefit from the model mix, yes.

是的，我認為大部分都屬於更廣泛的市場範疇。是的，這種模型組合會帶來一些好處。

Got it. And I realize it's a smaller piece of the business, the PACCAR truck leasing. Can you give us a sense of your plans for either fleet growth there and what you're seeing in that end market, from a utilization perspective?

知道了。我意識到，PACCAR 卡車租賃業務只是公司業務中較小的一部分。您能否介紹一下您在該地區的機隊成長計劃，以及從利用率的角度來看，您對終端市場的看法？

Yes. The utilization in the leasing market is excellent, with the transportation demand. When there's supplemental capacity needed, the lease and rental trucks, there's good demand in the leasing business. Ours as well as our dealers who operate PacLease franchises have had a really good year, and orders for leased trucks are up year-on-year. So yes, it's been a really good year for PacLease.

是的。租賃市場的利用率非常高，這與運輸需求相符。當需要補充運力時，租賃和出租卡車的需求量很大，租賃業務的需求也很好。我們公司以及經營 PacLease 特許經營權的經銷商今年的業績都非常好，租賃卡車的訂單量同比增長。所以，是的，對 PacLease 來說，今年確實是碩果累累的一年。

And can you remind us how big is the percentage of the Financial Services that the leasing business represents for you guys?

請問租賃業務在貴公司的金融服務業務中佔比有多大？

Yes. There's about -- we have a truck portfolio of around 190,000 trucks. And there's 38,000, 39,000 trucks in the PacLease operation. So whatever is that, 20%, 25%.

是的。我們擁有大約 19 萬輛卡車。PacLease 旗下有 38,000 到 39,000 輛卡車。所以不管那是多少，20%，25%。

Okay. So as a proportion of earnings, it's the same regardless of if it's being financed or leased, I guess, over the cycle?

好的。所以，就收益佔比而言，無論採用融資或租賃方式，在整個週期中都是相同的嗎？

That's correct. Yes.

沒錯。是的。

There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有其他補充說明嗎？

We'd like to thank everyone for their participation, and thank you, operator.

感謝大家的參與，也感謝操作員。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，PACCAR的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。