帕卡 (PCAR) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time. I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

早安，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2018 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的通話正在錄音，如有任何異議，請立即掛斷電話。現在我謹向大家介紹 PACCAR 的投資者關係總監 Ken Hastings 先生。哈斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Ron Armstrong, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; Preston Feight, Executive Vice President; and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller.

早安.我們歡迎透過電話收聽的聽眾和透過網路直播收聽的聽眾。我是肯‧黑斯廷斯，PACCAR公司的投資人關係總監。今天早上和我一起的還有執行長羅恩·阿姆斯特朗；總裁兼首席財務官哈里·希珀斯；執行副總裁普雷斯頓·費特；以及高級副總裁兼財務總監邁克爾·巴克利。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general, economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results. A summary of risks and uncertainties is described in more detail in our periodic reports filed with the SEC. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the Investor Relations page of paccar.com. I would now like to introduce Ron Armstrong.

與以往的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有參與電話會議的媒體成員以只聽模式參與。今天公佈的某些資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的總體經濟和競爭狀況。風險和不確定性概述已在提交給美國證券交易委員會的定期報告中進行了更詳細的描述。如需了解更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及 paccar.com 的投資者關係頁面。現在我來介紹羅恩·阿姆斯特朗。

Good morning. Harrie Schippers, Preston Feight and I will update you on our excellent fourth quarter and full year results for 2018, important business highlights and PACCAR's focus on innovation. Thanks to PACCAR's 28,000 outstanding employees around the world, 2018 was a record-setting year for the company.

早安.哈里·希珀斯、普雷斯頓·費特和我將向大家匯報我們 2018 年第四季度和全年的出色業績、重要的業務亮點以及 PACCAR 對創新的關注。感謝 PACCAR 在全球的 28,000 名傑出員工，2018 年是公司創紀錄的一年。

PACCAR achieved record revenues of $23.5 billion and record net income of $2.2 billion, a 9.3% after-tax return on revenues. PACCAR Parts set annual revenue and profit records, and PACCAR Financial achieved record new business volume and a 17% improvement in pretax income. PACCAR's celebrating 80 consecutive years of net income. We celebrated many other 2018 accomplishments. PACCAR delivered a record 189,000 trucks worldwide. DAF earned the prestigious International Truck of the Year 2018 award. Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF introduced a broad range of battery-electric, hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell truck models, which are currently in field testing with customers. DAF Brasil earned the Truck Brand of the Year honor for the third consecutive year, and increased its market share in just 5 years of operation to 6.7%. PACCAR's focus on sustainable business practices were recognized by the environmental reporting firm, CDP.

PACCAR 實現了創紀錄的 235 億美元收入和創紀錄的 22 億美元淨利潤，稅後收入回報率為 9.3%。PACCAR Parts 創下年度收入和利潤紀錄，PACCAR Financial 實現了創紀錄的新業務量，稅前收入提高了 17%。PACCAR 慶祝連續 80 年實現淨利潤。我們也慶祝了2018年取得的其他許多成就。PACCAR在全球範圍內交付了創紀錄的189,000輛卡車。DAF榮獲2018年度國際卡車大獎。Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 推出了一系列純電動、混合動力和氫燃料電池卡車車型，目前正在客戶現場進行測試。DAF Brasil 連續第三年榮獲年度卡車品牌稱號，並在短短 5 年的營運中將其市場份額提高到 6.7%。PACCAR 對永續商業實踐的重視得到了環境報告公司 CDP 的認可。

PACCAR achieved an A rating, which puts us in the top 2% of the over 6,000 companies, which report to CDP. And we're especially proud that Peterbilt and Kenworth were recognized as top workplaces for women by the organization Women In Trucking. PACCAR has a strong record of shareholder returns. PACCAR's paid a dividend every year since 1941, and has delivered annual dividends of approximately 50% of net income for many years. In 2018, PACCAR declared dividends of $3.09 per share, which was a 41% increase over 2017. Total dividends declared exceeded $1 billion for the first time. PACCAR's increased its regular quarterly dividend an average of 11% per year during the last 20 years and raised the quarterly dividend another 14%, beginning in 2019.

PACCAR 獲得了 A 評級，這使我們在向 CDP 報告的 6000 多家公司中躋身前 2%。我們尤其感到自豪的是，彼得比爾特和肯沃斯被「卡車運輸女性協會」評為女性最佳工作場所。PACCAR公司擁有良好的股東回報記錄。PACCAR 自 1941 年以來每年都會派發股息，多年來每年派發的股息約佔淨收入的 50%。2018 年，PACCAR 宣布每股股利 3.09 美元，比 2017 年成長 41%。宣布的股息總額首次超過10億美元。在過去的 20 年裡，PACCAR 的季度股息平均每年增長 11%，並從 2019 年開始將季度股息再提高 14%。

PACCAR's total dividends declared for 2018 result in a robust yield of 5.4% at year-end. PACCAR repurchased 5.8 million shares for $354 million in 2018, which was the most since 2007. The Board of Directors authorized additional share repurchases last year with $540 million remaining at year-end.

PACCAR 2018 年宣布的股息總額在年底實現了 5.4% 的強勁收益率。2018 年，PACCAR 以 3.54 億美元回購了 580 萬股股票，這是自 2007 年以來最多的一次。董事會去年批准了額外的股票回購計劃，截至年底還剩下 5.4 億美元。

PACCAR's fourth quarter revenues were a record $6.3 billion, and fourth quarter net income was $578 million. Revenues were 15% higher than the fourth quarter last year, and net income was 39% greater compared to the adjusted net income of $416 million earned in the fourth quarter last year.

PACCAR 第四季營收創下 63 億美元的紀錄，第四季淨利為 5.78 億美元。營收比去年第四季成長了 15%，淨利潤比去年第四季調整後的淨利潤 4.16 億美元成長了 39%。

PACCAR delivered a record 50,400 trucks during the fourth quarter, 6% more than the third quarter. The increase in production resulted from more build days in Europe compared to the third quarter and better supplier performance.

PACCAR第四季交付了創紀錄的50,400輛卡車，比第三季增加了6%。產量增加是由於歐洲的生產日數比第三季增加以及供應商表現改善所致。

Truck and parts gross margins were 14.2% in the fourth quarter. Truck pricing was good with price realization comparable to the second and third quarter at about 2%.

第四季卡車及零件毛利率為 14.2%。卡車定價良好，實際價格與第二季和第三季持平，約 2%。

During the quarter, we incurred some additional material labor cost due to supplier constraints, but conditions improved compared to the third quarter. By the end of the fourth quarter, supplier deliveries to the factories were in good shape. Our Peterbilt, Kenworth and DAF factories and purchasing and supplier management teams, again, did a fantastic job of managing production, delivering a record number of trucks and achieving the highest operating margins in the industry.

本季度，由於供應商的限制，我們產生了一些額外的材料和人工成本，但與第三季度相比情況有所改善。到第四季末，供應商向工廠的供貨情況良好。我們的 Peterbilt、Kenworth 和 DAF 工廠以及採購和供應商管理團隊再次出色地完成了生產管理工作，交付了創紀錄數量的卡車，並實現了業內最高的營運利潤率。

In the first quarter, we're expecting slightly higher deliveries compared to the fourth quarter. Deliveries are projected to be up over 15% when compared to last year's first quarter. Truck and parts gross margins are estimated to increase in the first quarter to around 14.5%. Now Preston Feight will provide an update on DAF, PACCAR Parts and PACCAR Financial Services.

我們預計第一季的交付量將略高於第四季。預計交付量將比去年第一季成長超過 15%。預計第一季卡車及零件毛利率將成長至 14.5% 左右。現在，普雷斯頓費特將帶來 DAF、PACCAR Parts 和 PACCAR Financial Services 的最新情況介紹。

Thanks, Ron. DAF had an outstanding 2018. DAF achieved record European above 16-tonne market share of 16.6% compared to 15.3% in 2017. DAF was the market leader in European tractor registrations, and is making great progress towards its goal of 20% market share. Europe's greater than 16-tonne truck market was a robust 319,000 registrations, reflecting continued strong demand and growing European economies. European economies and freight transport activity are projected to grow again in 2019.

謝謝你，羅恩。DAF在2018年取得了卓越的成績。DAF 在歐洲 16 噸以上卡車市佔率創下歷史新高，達到 16.6%，而 2017 年為 15.3%。DAF 是歐洲拖拉機註冊市場的領導者，並且正在朝著 20% 的市場份額目標取得巨大進展。歐洲16噸以上卡車市場表現強勁，註冊量達31.9萬輛，反映出持續強勁的需求和歐洲經濟的成長。預計2019年歐洲經濟和貨運活動將再次成長。

We expect 2019 to be another excellent year with the market in the range of 290,000 to 320,000 trucks. In 2018, PACCAR's Parts business generated record annual revenues of $3.8 billion, and record annual pretax profit of $769 million.

我們預計 2019 年將是另一個好年頭，市場卡車銷量將在 29 萬輛至 32 萬輛之間。2018 年，PACCAR 的零件業務創造了創紀錄的年度收入 38 億美元，以及創紀錄的年度稅前利潤 7.69 億美元。

Annual revenue grew 15% and annual profit grew 26% compared to 2017. Parts fourth quarter revenue were a record $971 million, and quarterly pretax profit was a strong $194 million. PACCAR has steadily increased its truck and engine market share over the years, resulting in greater number of PACCAR trucks and engines in operation. This, combined with consistent investments in parts distribution capacity and customer-focused technologies, has created a very strong growth environment for PACCAR Parts. We expect parts sales to grow by 5% to 8% this year. PACCAR Financial Services annual pretax income increased 17% in 2018 to $306 million. 2018 revenues were $1.36 billion.

與 2017 年相比，年收入成長了 15%，年利潤成長了 26%。零件業務第四季營收創下 9.71 億美元的紀錄，季度稅前利潤強勁成長至 1.94 億美元。多年來，PACCAR 的卡車和引擎市場份額穩步增長，導致 PACCAR 的卡車和發動機投入運營的數量不斷增加。這一點，再加上對零件分銷能力和以客戶為中心的技術的持續投資，為 PACCAR Parts 創造了非常強勁的成長環境。我們預計今年零件銷售額將成長 5% 至 8%。PACCAR Financial Services 2018 年稅前年度營收成長 17%，達到 3.06 億美元。2018 年營收為 13.6 億美元。

Fourth quarter pretax income increased 21% to $87 million. The portfolio increased to record size and continues to perform well. Kenworth and Peterbilt Class 8 used truck values increased over 10% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year. Kenworth and Peterbilt truck resale values commanded 10% to 20% premium over competitor's vehicles. We expect 2019 to be another good year for used trucks volumes and prices.

第四季稅前利潤成長21%，達到8700萬美元。投資組合規模已增至歷史新高，並且持續表現良好。與去年同期相比，肯沃斯和彼得比爾特8級二手卡車的價格在第四季上漲了10%以上。Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 卡車的轉售價格比競爭對手的車輛高出 10% 到 20%。我們預計2019年二手卡車的銷售和價格將又是一個好年。

PACCAR Parts and PACCAR Financial Services profit contributions are much larger than they were 20 years ago. These businesses are inherently less cyclical than the sale of new trucks, and their consistent profitability enhances PACCAR's financial results throughout all phases of the business cycle.

PACCAR Parts 和 PACCAR Financial Services 的利潤貢獻比 20 年前大得多。這些業務的周期性波動性本質上低於新卡車的銷售，而且其持續的盈利能力提升了 PACCAR 在整個商業週期中的財務表現。

Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on Kenworth and Peterbilt and PACCAR innovation.

哈里希珀斯接下來將介紹肯沃斯、彼得比爾特和帕卡集團的創新進展。

Thanks, Preston. In 2018, U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck retail sales were 285,000 units. Kenworth and Peterbilt had record production and achieved a strong 29.4% market share. In 2019, we expect the U.S. and Canada Class 8 truck market to expand further to a range of 285,000 to 315,000 vehicles. Kenworth and Peterbilt have a records backlog with production visibility into late 2019.

謝謝你，普雷斯頓。2018 年，美國和加拿大 8 級卡車零售銷售量為 285,000 輛。Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 的產量創下紀錄，並取得了 29.4% 的強勁市場份額。2019年，我們預計美國和加拿大8級卡車市場將進一步擴大，達到285,000至315,000輛。Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 的訂單積壓量創歷史新高，預計生產將持續到 2019 年底。

U.S. economic and freight indicators were strong in 2018, with nearly 3% GDP growth, 3.8% industrial production growth and 6.6% freight tonnage growth. Fleet utilization levels are very high at 97% in the fourth quarter of 2018.

2018 年美國經濟和貨運指標表現強勁，GDP 成長近 3%，工業生產成長 3.8%，貨運噸位成長 6.6%。2018 年第四季，車隊利用率非常高，達 97%。

In 2019, U.S. GDP and industrial production are expected to grow another 2% to 3%, which bodes well for freight volumes and demand for trucks. In the past, a surge in orders was often driven by a prebuy related to an emissions change. That is not the case in this cycle, which has been driven by economic and freight growth. Kenworth and Peterbilt customers are benefiting from the industry-leading operating efficiency provided by our trucks as well as superior aftermarket support from PACCAR Parts and PACCAR Financial Services.

預計2019年美國GDP和工業生產將再成長2%至3%，對貨運量和卡車需求來說是個好兆頭。過去，訂單激增通常是由與排放變化相關的預購行為所推動的。但本輪週期並非如此，本輪週期是由經濟和貨運成長所驅動的。Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 的客戶正在受益於我們卡車提供的業界領先的營運效率，以及 PACCAR Parts 和 PACCAR Financial Services 的卓越售後支援。

PACCAR showcased many innovative products and technologies last year. DAF introduced the CF electric, LF electric, XF hybrid and CF hybrid trucks. Peterbilt introduced Model 579, Model 520 and Model 220 electric trucks. Kenworth introduced a T680 hybrid truck and 2 T680 hydrogen fuel cell models. Earlier this month, several of these trucks were on display at the CES technology show in Las Vegas. We had a terrific turnout of people interested in PACCAR technology and the opportunity to see the trucks and technology firsthand. We were the only OEM displaying trucks at the show.

去年，PACCAR 展示了許多創新產品和技術。DAF推出了CF電動卡車、LF電動卡車、XF混合動力卡車和CF混合動力卡車。Peterbilt推出了Model 579、Model 520和Model 220電動卡車。Kenworth推出了一款T680混合動力卡車和兩款T680氫燃料電池卡車。本月初，其中幾輛卡車在拉斯維加斯舉行的 CES 消費性電子展上展出。很多人對 PACCAR 的技術都很感興趣，並有機會親眼看到卡車和技術，我們這次活動非常成功。我們是展會上唯一展出卡車的汽車製造商。

Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF's alternative powertrain products are in field trials with customers, focusing on regional distribution, refuse, urban delivery and port applications. These applications will be the most economically feasible for customers in the medium term. Longer term, alternative powertrain vehicles will likely be competitive in more applications. While we are preparing for the long-term by making investments in alternative powertrain technologies, we do expect diesel to remain the most efficient and cost-effective powertrain technology in heavy-truck applications for the foreseeable future.

Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 的替代動力系統產品正在與客戶進行實地試驗，重點是區域配送、垃圾處理、城市配送和港口應用。從中長期來看，這些應用對客戶而言是最經濟可行的。從長遠來看，替代動力總成汽車可能會在更多應用領域具有競爭力。雖然我們正在透過投資替代動力系統技術來為長期發展做準備，但我們預計在可預見的未來，柴油仍將是重型卡車應用中最有效、最具成本效益的動力系統技術。

The PACCAR Innovation Center in Silicon Valley completed its first full year of operations in 2018. The Innovation Center team complements PACCAR's extensive R&D efforts and is focused on developing a production-ready level 4 autonomous PACCAR truck. The team has developed an excellent reputation with the entrepreneurial community of start-up companies, venture capital firms and academia. PACCAR was recognized in 2018 for its innovations in software and manufacturing. DAF has won it with a computable award 2018 in the Netherlands for its 3D truck configurator web application. Peterbilt in Denton, Texas, the PACCAR engines factory in Columbus, Mississippi and a PACCAR truck factory in Sainte-Thérèse, Canada, each earned a prestigious manufacturing leadership award from Frost & Sullivan. These manufacturing innovations and arms factory capacity, efficiency and safety exemplify PACCAR's operational excellence.

PACCAR位於矽谷的創新中心於2018年完成了其第一個完整的營運年度。創新中心團隊是 PACCAR 廣泛研發工作的補充，專注於開發可量產的 L4 級自動駕駛 PACCAR 卡車。該團隊在新創公司、創投公司和學術界等創業群體中建立了良好的聲譽。2018年，PACCAR因其在軟體和製造​​領域的創新而受到認可。DAF憑藉其3D卡車配置器網路應用程序，在2018年荷蘭獲得了Computable獎。位於德克薩斯州丹頓的彼得比爾特汽車廠、位於密西西比州哥倫布的帕卡發動機廠以及位於加拿大聖特雷茲的帕卡卡車廠，均獲得了弗若斯特沙利文頒發的享有盛譽的製造業領導獎。這些製造創新以及軍工廠的產能、效率和安全性體現了 PACCAR 的卓越運作。

We invested $437 million in capital and $306 million in R&D expenses in 2018. In 2019, we're planning to increase capital investments to $525 million to $575 million, and increase R&D expenses to $320 million to $350 million. These investments will develop the next generation of Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF trucks, enhance PACCAR's diesel and alternative powertrain technologies and add additional capacity and efficiency to the company's manufacturing and parts distribution facilities. Thank you. We'd be pleased to answer your questions.

2018 年，我們投入了 4.37 億美元的資本和 3.06 億美元的研發費用。2019年，我們計劃將資本投資增加到5.25億美元至5.75億美元，並將研發支出增加到3.2億美元至3.5億美元。這些投資將用於開發下一代 Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 卡車，增強 PACCAR 的柴油和替代動力系統技術，並為公司的製造和零件分銷設施增加額外的產能和效率。謝謝。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Ross Gilardi with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行美林證券的羅斯吉拉迪。

Just got a couple of questions. First of all, maybe you could talk a little bit more about the parts business. Where do you think we are in the cycle? You'll be factoring in some deceleration this year. But I remember an interesting chart you had at your Investor Day showing that we're in somewhat of a sweet spot for parts, given the age class of the active fleet. So why would that actually even slow down this year?

我收到幾個問題。首先，您能否再多談談零件業務？你認為我們目前處於週期的哪個階段？今年經濟增速會放緩，這一點需要考慮。但我記得你在投資者日上展示過一張很有意思的圖表，圖表顯示，考慮到現役車隊的年齡，我們在零件方面處於一個相對有利的位置。那麼，為什麼今年這種情況反而會放緩呢？

Well, I'd just say last year was an extraordinary year for PACCAR Parts, they put a lot of things in place, which -- we reaped the benefits of those last year, we continue to invest in additional capacity this year, so we've got 2 pretty major projects: 1 in Las Vegas and 1 in Brazil for next year. So the programs that have been put in place will continue to generate positive returns, and so we think -- or at this point, somewhere in the 5% to 8% range. But we'll see how the year progresses and we'll have better insight in that as we have this discussion 3 months from now.

嗯，我只想說去年對 PACCAR Parts 來說是非凡的一年，他們做了很多事情，我們去年也從中受益，今年我們將繼續投資增加產能，所以我們有兩個非常重要的項目：一個在拉斯維加斯，一個在巴西，明年都會啟動。因此，已經實施的計劃將繼續產生積極的回報，所以我們認為——或者說，目前來看，回報幅度在 5% 到 8% 之間。但我們會看看今年情況如何發展，三個月後我們再進行討論時，就會對此有更深入的了解。

Yes, got it. Ron, and then maybe you could just talk about Class 8 order trends a bit, I mean, obviously, they were at supernormal levels throughout the year, and they've started to slow, just back towards more normal levels. What have you seen there? Is it the big fleets, the smaller fleets? Is it really just everybody there? I mean, you sound like you're still quite positive this year. But any color on order trends would be great.

是的，明白了。羅恩，然後也許你可以談談八年級的訂單趨勢，我的意思是，很明顯，他們全年的訂單量都處於超常水平，現在已經開始放緩，逐漸恢復到正常水平。你在那裡看到了什麼？是大型艦隊，還是小型艦隊？真的只有那裡所有人嗎？我的意思是，聽起來你今年依然相當樂觀。但任何關於訂單趨勢的彩色數據都會很有幫助。

Yes. Over 450,000 orders last year was -- I would sort of call it supernormal, I would call it abnormal, which was, yes, great for the backlog. I was just at the ATD meeting last week, meeting with several of our dealers, the dealers are very confident about the ability to deliver the trucks that are in the backlog and very confident about orders that will continue to fill in the openings that are there. And we've already taken some orders for 2020. I'd say industry conditions are very positive from our perspective.

是的。去年超過 45 萬份訂單——我姑且稱之為超常，或者說不正常，但這對於解決積壓訂單來說，確實是件好事。我上週剛參加了 ATD 會議，與我們的幾位經銷商會面，經銷商們對交付積壓的卡車非常有信心，並且對繼續填補空缺的訂單也非常有信心。我們已經接到了一些2020年的訂單。從我們的角度來看，我認為行業情況非常樂觀。

Our next question comes from Joel Tiss with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自BMO的Joel Tiss。

Two things. Can you give us a sense, maybe, this is more of a Harrie question? Why the inventories are running up kind of 27.5% at the end of the year? Usually you normalize them toward the end of the year and I just wondered if there's something unusual in there or you just gearing up for a strong 2019?

兩件事。能否給我們一些提示？或許，這更像是哈利的問題？為什麼年底庫存會成長約 27.5%？通常情況下，你會在年底前對這些數據進行調整，我只是想知道這裡面是否有任何異常情況，或者你只是在為2019年的強勁增長做準備？

Are you talking about by looking at the balance sheet, the carrying value from year to year?

您是指透過查看資產負債表，來比較每年的帳面價值嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I'd say, it's -- I mean, Harrie can have this one. But I think it's mostly just reflecting higher production levels.

我覺得，這——我的意思是，哈利可以拿下這個。但我認為這主要反映的是更高的生產水準。

Exactly right, Ron. It's reflecting the higher build rate.

完全正確，羅恩。這反映了更高的建設速度。

Yes.

是的。

And then can you give us a little background on -- can you tell us what your penetration rate is on your parts? Out of your total installed base, what do you guess your market share is on the parts penetration? Is it 15% or 40%, or just an idea so we can also gauge how much growth potential there is longer term?

那麼，您能否簡單介紹一下貴公司的情況—您能否告訴我們貴公司零件的滲透率是多少？在您的總裝置量中，您估計您的零件滲透率市場佔有率是多少？是 15% 還是 40%，或只是一個大概的想法，以便我們也能評估長期的成長潛力？

Yes, that's a very -- unfortunately, there's not a real strong gauge of the parts market like there is on trucks. But I would say, based on seeing our parts revenue growth relative to the competition, what we can glean from that is that our share position improved really in all of our markets last year. And again, kudos to the parts team for the great things and investments they've made in warehousing, in programs. And I think we'll continue to grow our share without -- again, without knowing precise numbers.

是的，很遺憾，不像卡車那樣，汽車零件市場並沒有真正強而有力的衡量指標。但從我們零件收入相對於競爭對手的成長情況來看，我們可以得出結論：去年我們在所有市場的份額地位都得到了實際改善。再次向零件團隊致敬，感謝他們在倉儲和專案方面所做的出色工作和投資。我認為，即使不知道確切的數字，我們也會繼續擴大市場份額。

Our next question comes from Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的史蒂夫沃克曼。

Ron, I was going to see if I could push you a little bit for a little bit more color on your pricing commentary. I think you said the prices were up about 2% in the second, third and it sounds like also the fourth quarter. And I'm curious about 2 things. One, is how does that sort of compare with the increases that you saw in things like parts' costs and labor inflation and so forth? In other words, price cost, neutral, negative or positive, I'd just be curious on how that trended? And then, as we look into 2019, are there some opportunities to maybe get a little bit more price with the backlog being as long as it is? And how does the price cost kind of balance look to you guys going forward?

羅恩，我想問你能不能再詳細說說你​​的定價觀點。我想你說過第二季、第三季以及聽起來第四季的價格都上漲了約 2%。我有兩件事很好奇。首先，這與零件成本上漲、勞動成本上漲等情況相比如何？換句話說，價格成本，無論是中性、負面或正面，我只是好奇它的趨勢如何？展望 2019 年，鑑於目前的積壓訂單量，是否有可能獲得更高的價格？那麼，你們覺得未來價格成本的平衡如何？

We'll let Michael talk a little bit about the details of the cost side, and then I'll talk about 2019. Michael?

我們先讓麥可談談成本方面的細節，然後我再談談 2019 年的情況。麥可？

The cost side for the fourth quarter, they were up about 1.6% or -- which was less than our revenue side, which is up by over 2%. So we had some positive price realization during the quarter.

第四季成本方面成長了約 1.6%，低於收入方面的成長（收入成長超過 2%）。因此，本季我們獲得了一些積極的價格實現。

So as you look next year, Stephen, I think, the orders are pretty well in the house for North America, and so we know what that pricing is. And we commented on what we think the first quarter margins, a little bit enhancement up to around 14.5% in the first quarter. And we'd say, if you look at the full year, probably in the 14% to 15% range for the year.

所以，史蒂芬，展望明年，我認為北美地區的訂單已經基本確定，所以我們知道定價是多少。我們對第一季利潤率的預期進行了評論，認為第一季利潤率將略有提升，達到 14.5% 左右。如果從全年來看，我們認為全年佔比可能在 14% 到 15% 之間。

Our next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

I wonder if you can talk about the new products that you were stepping through at the beginning of the call, the battery-power products are in various stages of customer testing. Can you talk about what are the most successful variants so far? And when do you think we'll see them in commercial production and in your facilities? I appreciate that it's early, but maybe you could share with us the early results?

我想請您談談您在通話開始時介紹的新產品，這些電池供電產品目前正處於客戶測試的不同階段。能談談目前為止最成功的變體有哪些嗎？您認為我們什麼時候才能在商業生產中看到它們出現在您的工廠？我知道現在還為時過早，但或許您可以和我們分享初步結果？

Yes. I think we sort of think about it in 3 different layers. I think where we're at today in sort of the demonstration phase where we're learning about new technologies and how they work, next step, would probably be some level of low-volume production, which would probably be starting next year. And then at some point, once the commercial viability of these technologies are good and the customers -- the customer demand is there, I mean, ultimately for us, it's all about the customer demand. And I think the economic feasibility will dictate a lot of that as time goes on. And so we're doing everything we can to be prepared and be ready and be as smart as we can be about those technologies. And we'll be ready to start production when the customer's demand is there for those products.

是的。我認為我們可以從三個不同的層面來考慮這個問題。我認為我們目前所處的階段有點像是示範階段，我們正在了解新技術及其工作原理，下一步可能是進行一定程度的小批量生產，這可能要從明年開始。然後，在某個時候，一旦這些技術的商業可行性良好，並且客戶——客戶需求存在，我的意思是，最終對我們來說，一切都取決於客戶需求。我認為隨著時間的推移，經濟可行性將在很大程度上決定這一切。因此，我們正在盡一切努力做好準備，並盡可能地了解這些技術。當客戶對這些產品有需求時，我們將做好投產準備。

Okay. And then the low-volume production that's expected next year, can you talk about what the powertrain looks like in terms of is it a PACCAR-supplied powertrain? Is it third party? I guess, what we've seen from you folks in the past from that diesel side is lower volume products you've tended to use third-party powertrains and where you have more scale you've done in-house, and I'm wondering is that the framework we should be thinking about at least in the early stages of EV?

好的。對於預計明年小批量生產的車型，您能否談談動力系統的情況，例如它是否由 PACCAR 提供動力系統？它是第三方嗎？我想，我們從你們過去在柴油車方面的情況來看，你們在小批量產品方面傾向於使用第三方動力系統，而在規模較大的產品方面則傾向於自主研發。我想知道，這是否是我們至少在電動車發展的早期階段應該考慮的框架？

Yes, I think in the early stages we're working with a variety of partners to identify what technologies work best. But also getting smarter about what role we want to play and what position we want to have in these alternative powertrain components. So that's still being studied and evaluated for the long term.

是的，我認為在早期階段，我們正在與各種合作夥伴合作，以確定哪些技術效果最佳。但我們也越來越清楚我們想在這些替代動力系統零件中扮演什麼角色，想佔據什麼位置。所以，這方面仍在進行長期研究和評估。

And in PACCAR Financial, you folks had really strong margins this quarter, sounds like used truck values were a contributor to that? Can you just flesh that out, was that a mark-to-market or is that sustained benefit now that values have moved higher? Can you just give us a bit more context behind the strong parts or -- excuse me, FinCo margin improvement?

PACCAR Financial 本季的利潤率非常強勁，聽起來二手卡車價格上漲是促成這一結果的原因之一？能詳細說明一下嗎？這是以市值計價的收益，還是隨著價值上漲而持續獲得的收益？您能否為我們詳細介紹這些優勢部分，或者—抱歉，FinCo利潤率的提高？

Yes, there is no mark-to-market. We adjust, we look at valuations of our used truck inventories every quarter and once we adjust, typically, if there is a write-down needed, we take the write-down and then that becomes the basis going forward. So no mark-to-market enhancements. It's all about just the market pricing is better, and we're getting a better result from our used truck activities, particularly in North America.

是的，沒有進行市值計價。我們會進行調整，每個季度都會對二手卡車庫存進行估值，一旦進行調整，通常情況下，如果需要減記，我們會進行減記，然後這將成為未來的基礎。因此，沒有按市值計價的增值。關鍵在於市場定價更合理，我們的二手卡車業務也取得了更好的業績，尤其是在北美地區。

Our next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

Regarding the first quarter delivery comment, if I heard correctly, up 15% year-over-year. Can you help us geographically, how we're thinking about deliveries sequentially?

關於第一季交貨量的評論，如果我沒聽錯的話，年增 15%。您能否從地理位置方面幫助我們，以及我們如何依序考慮交付事宜？

I think the lion's share of that will probably be in North America with some improvement in Europe as well compared to last year's first quarter. And we'll see -- yes, we're seeing -- we'll see some improvement in South America as well. So I think most of the regions will be up and Mexico, I think, will be up as well.

我認為其中大部分成長可能來自北美，歐洲的情況與去年第一季相比也會有所改善。我們會看到——是的，我們正在看到——南美洲的情況也會有所改善。所以我認為大部分地區都會恢復正常，墨西哥應該也會恢復正常。

Yes, I'm just trying to look at normal sequentials, usually Europe and the rest of world are down 4Q to 1Q. So most of the sequential growth is North America. And I guess what was driving it, you haven't found this constructive on the supply chain for a little while, sounds like that's improving?

是的，我只是想看看正常的周期性變化，通常歐洲和世界其他地區在第四季到第一季都會下降。因此，大部分連續成長都來自北美。我猜想，促使你做出這個決定的原因，是因為你覺得供應鏈方面已經有一段時間沒有取得建設性進展了，聽起來情況正在好轉？

It is...

這是...

So I appreciate the price cost, I have to believe the inefficiencies in the supply chain have been rather notable the last couple of quarters. So with that starting to pass, I guess, maybe I'm just pushing a little bit on the gross margin, to have the gross margin in the first quarter still down year-over-year? I'm just trying to get a sense of do we see, at some point, that gross margins can grow on that strong a delivery growth, especially if North America's sort of driving the growth? I would have thought the supply chain improvements might be able to bump up the gross margin pots?

所以，我理解價格成本，但我認為過去幾季供應鏈的效率低下問題相當明顯。所以隨著這種情況開始過去，我想，也許我只是在努力提高毛利率，以期第一季的毛利率仍然比去年同期下降？我只是想了解一下，在如此強勁的交付成長下，毛利率是否有可能成長，尤其是在北美成為成長主要驅動力的情況下？我原以為供應鏈的改善能夠提高毛利率？

Yes, I -- so if you look at truck margins, truck margins in the fourth quarter, I think, were about 11.9% -- 11.8%, 11.9%. And so because the revenue growth in the first quarter will be more related to trucks than parts, you get a bit of a mix effect that has a margin impact. So that's sort of what we're seeing. And if -- we're seeing good, really good performance by our suppliers in the month of January and should that continue, that -- there could be some upside. But right now, we're making our best call based on how we see it currently.

是的，我——所以如果你看一下卡車利潤率，我認為第四季度的卡車利潤率約為 11.9%——11.8%，11.9%。因此，由於第一季的營收成長更與卡車而非零件相關，所以會產生一些混合效應，進而對利潤率產生影響。這就是我們目前看到的情況。如果——我們看到供應商在一月份的表現非常好，而且如果這種情況能夠持續下去，那麼——可能會有一些上漲空間。但就目前而言，我們只能根據我們目前的判斷做出最佳決定。

No, I appreciate that. Yes, we have -- on a pretax level, margin truck was still down year-over-year in the fourth quarter. But are you saying that at least there's a chance, say, the pretax truck margins should have a chance to start growing year-over-year with the deliveries? That answer or we're looking for that extra little pop to earnings power can we start to assume some improving year-over-year margin?

不，我很感激。是的，第四季稅前利潤率比去年同期仍然下降。但你的意思是說，至少有希望，比如說，隨著貨物交付量的增長，卡車運輸的稅前利潤率應該有機會逐年增長嗎？如果答案是肯定的，或者我們正在尋找提升獲利能力的額外動力，我們可以開始假設利潤率會逐年提高？

It could. And so we'll -- again, I think we'll see how things progress here as we work through the first quarter.

有可能。所以，我們——我想，我們會看看在第一季裡事情會如何發展。

Okay. And quick follow-up on Europe. I appreciate the -- derisking the guide down a little bit, but can you help us with how the orders were in the fourth quarter year-over-year?

好的。以及對歐洲的快速後續報道。我很感激您降低了指南的風險，但您能否幫我們了解一下第四季度訂單與去年同期相比的情況？

Let me just see if we can -- well, the orders were strong while we look for the numbers. We had a really strong December in Europe. And...

讓我看看我們能不能——嗯，在我們查找數據的時候，訂單量很強勁。我們在歐洲度過了非常強烈的12月。和...

Yes, fourth quarter orders were up 8%, and for the full year, orders were up 17% in Europe.

是的，第四季訂單成長了 8%，全年歐洲訂單成長了 17%。

Okay. Well, so it's up 8% going into the year. And lastly, the repo. The repo was a nice step-up in the fourth quarter. Maybe if you can just help us how you think about the cycle and how it maybe influences at your thoughts on the share repo.

好的。嗯，所以今年年初至今上漲了8%。最後，是程式碼庫。第四季回購交易是一個不錯的進步。或許您可以幫我們分析一下您對這個週期的看法，以及它可能如何影響您對股票倉庫的想法。

Yes, I mean, we -- when the evaluation is attractive as it is currently, we step up our efforts on the repurchase activity. And so that's been the approach we've taken for years, and we'll continue to apply that. We still have $540 million of authorization that we'll continue to manage through 2019.

是的，我的意思是，當估值像目前這樣有吸引力時，我們會加強回購力道。所以，多年來我們一直採取這種方法，並將繼續採用這種方法。我們仍有 5.4 億美元的授權資金，我們將繼續管理這些資金直至 2019 年。

Our next question comes from the line of Seth Weber with RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Seth Weber。

Just kind of going back to David's question on the gross margin, is there any way to quantify how much the supply chain disruption or some hiccups cost you in margin in the fourth quarter? I think you said it was maybe 50 basis points in the third quarter. Did it get less onerous in the fourth quarter?

回到 David 關於毛利率的問題，有沒有辦法量化供應鏈中斷或一些小問題在第四季對利潤造成的損失？我想你說過第三季可能是50個基點。第四季情況有好轉嗎？

Yes, that's a tough one. There's just -- there's so many inputs that go with that. So I don't recall that being that specific. So it is an impact in -- it's tens of millions, but it's hard to quantify.

是的，這確實是個難題。這其中涉及的因素太多了。所以我不記得有這麼具體的說法。所以這確實會產生影響——影響金額高達數千萬美元，但很難量化。

Okay, fair enough. And then I wanted to ask about the higher CapEx that you're looking for in 2019. You did mention some incremental spend on manufacturing facilities. I'm wondering, is that -- are you adding brick-and-mortar or is it just sort of adding incremental machine tools, or what? Can you just give us any color on that specific part of the higher CapEx on the manufacturing side? And also, are you ramping up spending on any suppliers?

好吧，這說得有道理。然後我想問一下，您預計在 2019 年將增加資本支出。您確實提到在製造設施方面會增加一些支出。我想知道，你們是在增加實體建築，還是只是逐步增加工具機之類的東西？您能否就製造方面較高的資本支出這一具體部分給予一些具體說明？另外，你們是否增加了某些供應商的支出？

So I'd say it's a combination of all those things. There will be some additional bricks and mortar added to some of our facilities to really increase the efficiency. One of the things that we're going to be doing, we're going to be investing in a new paint shop in Chillicothe, Ohio. So that'll be a pretty sizable addition, and we'll redirect the current paint shop to be more involved with assembly capacity. We're also looking at machining investments to support the success of the PACCAR MX engine and just to continue to increase the efficiency of all of our factories around the world. And we'll be preparing for new product launches and the facility requirements to go with that.

所以我覺得是所有這些因素共同作用的結果。我們將為部分設施增加一些磚瓦，以真正提高效率。我們將要做的事情之一，就是在俄亥俄州奇利科西投資興建新的噴漆車間。所以這將是一個相當大的新增產能，我們將把現有的噴漆車間更多地投入到裝配產能中。我們也在考慮對機械加工進行投資，以支援 PACCAR MX 引擎的成功，並繼續提高我們在全球所有工廠的效率。我們將為新產品發布以及與之配套的設施需求做好準備。

Okay. And are you investing in suppliers to help -- kind of help them along a little bit these days? Or the...

好的。你們是否在投資供應商，以幫助──或者說，在如今這個時期，給予他們一些幫助？或者…

We definitely are. Where there's -- supplier is -- you can't get it done fast enough to support what we want to do, then yes, definitely, we're providing suppliers with a capital investment and it's going to benefit PACCAR.

當然是。如果供應商無法及時完成工作以支持我們想要做的事情，那麼是的，我們肯定會向供應商提供資本投資，這將使 PACCAR 受益。

Our next question comes from the line of Andy Casey with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的安迪凱西。

In your European outlook, I mean, some of the questions have already been asked, but you're expecting the industry sales down around 4% at the midpoint. You had 8% organic growth -- or sorry, order growth in the fourth quarter. Should we read that to mean that you expect industry trends, not necessarily PACCAR but industry trends, to kind of deteriorate for the year?

就您對歐洲市場的展望而言，我的意思是，有些問題已經被問過了，但您預計行業銷售額中位數將下降約 4%。你們第四季實現了 8% 的自然成長——或者抱歉，是訂單成長。我們是否可以理解為，您預計今年的行業趨勢（不一定是 PACCAR 的趨勢，而是整個行業的趨勢）會惡化？

Yes, the European market has been above 300,000 for 3 straight years. We -- based on how we see things, we think 2019 could be the fourth. And so we're starting the year in a real positive vein with where we're at. But it's 4 years, and it's -- we'll see how long it runs, but we do have some conservatism baked into our thinking as we progress through the year. But hopefully, that doesn't turn out to be the case.

是的，歐洲市場已經連續三年銷售超過30萬輛。根據我們的觀察，我們認為 2019 年可能是第四個。因此，就我們目前的狀況而言，我們以非常積極的勢頭開啟了新的一年。但這是四年時間，而且——我們拭目以待——但隨著時間的推移，我們的思考中確實融入了一些保守主義。但願情況並非如此。

Yes, okay. And then just a little bit further on that topic, have you started to see any weakness in any of those select countries that create the Europe region?

好的。那麼，關於這個主題，您是否開始發現構成歐洲地區的某些國家有任何弱點？

You could say that Germany is the place where, if there's anything, there's a little bit of noise and, obviously, the U.K. But in general, as Ron just said, we see strong performance in order intake and how the trucks are certainly being received with the customers. So with order intake up and market share growth that we've achieved, it feels pretty good for 2019.

可以說，德國和英國這兩個地方，如果有什麼改變的話，那就是稍微有點吵。但總的來說，正如羅恩剛才所說，我們看到訂單量表現強勁，而且卡車也受到了客戶的歡迎。因此，隨著訂單量增加和市場份額增長，我們對 2019 年的前景感到非常滿意。

Yes, we're pretty fortunate in the U.K. We have -- we're the only OEM in Europe that has a plant manufacturing products in the U.K., and that provides us a bit of a competitive advantage, depending on how things play out with Brexit. And I think everybody believes that there won't be a hard Brexit. But in the event there is, it actually -- from a competitive situation, it actually plays into our favor. So we'll see how it all develops, but we're hopeful that's there's a nice, smooth approach to the transition there.

是的，我們在英國相當幸運。我們是歐洲唯一一家在英國設有工廠生產產品的原始設備製造商，這為我們提供了一定的競爭優勢，但這取決於英國脫歐的最終結果。而且我認為大家都相信不會有硬脫歐。但如果真的發生了這種情況，從競爭的角度來看，這實際上對我們有利。所以我們會看看事情會如何發展，但我們希望過渡過程能順利進行。

Okay. And then if we can flip over to parts, if I look at it on an annual basis, you had around 150 basis points of operating margin improvement year-over-year. Clearly, a very strong performance. When you look back on the entire year, could you kind of review of what the main factors driving that improvement were? And then kind of reflect on whether you expect further upside to the margin during 2019?

好的。然後，如果我們換個角度來看，從年度數據來看，營業利潤率比去年同期提高了約 150 個基點。顯然，這是一場非常精彩的演出。回顧這一年，能否總結一下推動績效提升的主要因素是什麼？然後思考一下，你是否預期2019年利潤率會有進一步上升的空間？

So the big thing is just the operating leverage on the warehouse and sales and marketing spend, and so you get the benefit of that. You get to -- we continue to see growth in our engine park and engine parts sales, which typically have a little bit higher-than-average margin, and I don't think that's going to change. I think we'll continue to see engines -- engine parts growth probably still be a leading product line that will help us develop the parts business into 2019. So offsetting that, we -- last year, we constructed the Toronto PDC, which is now up and running and doing great. And so you have some project costs that we continue to incur just to support the growth of the business going forward. So that tends to offset a little bit, but that'll be pretty -- all pretty normal. And so we'd see some -- probably some leverage from that 5% to 8% revenue growth.

所以關鍵在於倉庫、銷售和行銷支出的營運槓桿作用，這樣你就能從中受益。您可以看到——我們的引擎產品和引擎零件銷售額持續成長，這些產品的利潤率通常略高於平均水平，我認為這種情況不會改變。我認為我們將繼續看到引擎——引擎零件的成長可能仍然是一條領先的產品線，這將有助於我們在 2019 年發展零件業務。為了彌補這一點，我們——去年，我們建造了多倫多 PDC，現在它已經投入運營，而且運作良好。因此，為了支持業務未來的發展，我們也需要持續承擔一些專案成本。所以這會稍微抵消一些影響，但整體來說會很正常。因此，我們可能會從這 5% 到 8% 的收入成長中獲得一些槓桿效應。

Our next question comes from Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的安·杜伊尼安。

Sorry, I had you on mute. I guess, a lot of my questions have been answered, but if we could take a step back and look at your backlog again, strictly in North America, can you talk a little bit about the mix in there of sleeper versus Class 8? And also maybe large fleet versus smaller owner-operator? Or any other color you can give us on the mix of that backlog, it would be great.

抱歉，我剛才把你靜音了。我想，我的許多問題都得到了解答，但如果我們能退一步，再看一下你們的積壓訂單，嚴格來說僅限於北美地區，你們能談談其中臥舖列車與8級列車的比例嗎？或許還有大型車隊與小型自營商之間的對比？或者，如果您能提供其他任何關於待辦事項組合的信息，那就太好了。

Ann, if I look at the backlog for 2019, it's pretty normal. We got a very normal mix of fleet business, bigger fleets and smaller fleets retail business by our dealers. And we try to manage that backlog also that in a year where our lead times extend, that we're able to supply all our loyal customers with the trucks that they need.

安，如果我看一下 2019 年的積壓工作量，那還算正常。我們的經銷商獲得了非常正常的車隊業務組合，包括大型車隊和小型車隊的零售業務。我們也努力管理積壓訂單，以便在交貨週期延長的年份，能夠為所有忠實客戶提供所需的卡車。

So nothing unusual sleeper versus Class 8 straight? I'm thinking more oil and gas kind of related infrastructure?

所以臥舖車廂和8級直達車廂之間沒什麼特別的？我指的是更多與石油和天然氣相關的基礎設施？

No, very normal.

不，很正常。

Okay, that's good to hear. And then in that context also, perhaps we could talk about used values and also the cancellations that escalated for the industry over the last couple of months? Can you talk about what you've seen in cancellation rates? Or were your dealers not ordering for stock to begin with, so there have not been the same level of cancellations? If you could talk a little bit about that, that'll be good.

好的，聽到這個消息很高興。那麼，在這個背景下，我們或許還可以談談二手車的價值，以及過去幾個月來業界不斷攀升的訂單取消情況？您能談談您觀察到的取消率情況嗎？或者說，你們的經銷商一開始就沒有訂購庫存，所以才沒有出現同樣多的取消訂單？如果你能稍微談談這方面的話，那就太好了。

Used truck prices have improved nicely as we mentioned. And if we look at cancellations, we don't see a lot of real cancellations. If we see cancellations, it's cancellations for reorders. So a dealer changes the type or a customer for a truck, but not any significant cancellations so far.

正如我們之前提到的，二手卡車的價格已經有了不錯的改善。如果我們看一下取消的訂單，就會發現真正的取消訂單並不多。如果出現取消訂單的情況，那都是因為需要重新下單而取消的。所以經銷商更改了卡車的類型或客戶，但到目前為止還沒有任何重大取消訂單的情況。

And is that your assessment of the industry cancellation rates? That it is more canceling and resetting of delivery train trucks that...

這就是您對行業取消率的評估嗎？更多的是取消和重新安排送貨列車的班次…

We don't know what the other -- we know what our situation is, but we don't really have any read into what the competitor numbers look like.

我們不知道對方的情況——我們知道自己的處境，但我們對競爭對手的數據一無所知。

Okay. And one quick follow-up on your European outlook. What exactly do you have baked in the outlook for Brexit? You're assuming it's a normal or that it doesn't happen? Or what's the downside risk if we do not get order past the expiration date?

好的。最後還有一個關於您歐洲前景的後續問題。您對英國脫歐前景的具體預期是什麼？你是認為這是正常現象，還是認為這種事根本不會發生？如果訂單在到期日後仍未完成，那麼下行風險是什麼？

I think there's -- there are bound to be some -- if there is a hard Brexit, it's -- there's bound to be some temporary disruption. But that's, again, that's temporary. And again, because we are the sole producer in the U.K., from a competitive standpoint, it's actually a bit of an advantage for us.

我認為，如果出現硬脫歐，肯定會有一些暫時的混亂。但那也只是暫時的。而且，因為我們是英國唯一的生產商，從競爭的角度來看，這對我們來說實際上是一個優勢。

No, but in the long-term, pulls to any disruption, obviously?

不，但從長遠來看，顯然會阻礙任何形式的干擾？

Yes, I think in the long term, it's all sorts itself out, yes. But short-term, there could be challenges.

是的，我認為從長遠來看，一切都會好起來的。但短期內可能會面臨挑戰。

Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Jamie Cook。

I guess, first question, I was sort of surprised when you talked about customers already starting to talk about 2020. And obviously, when we look at your stock price and the multiple the world assumes in 2020, the truck market, obviously, rolls over. So can you just talk, understanding it's far out, but sort of what your customers are talking about in terms of how they're thinking about 2020 and sort of how far out you are?

我想問的第一個問題是，您提到客戶已經開始談論 2020 年，這讓我有點驚訝。顯然，當我們審視你的股價以及2020年全球普遍接受的估值倍數時，卡車市場顯然已經崩潰。所以，你能談談嗎？我知道這有點超前，但你的客戶都在談論他們對 2020 年的看法，以及你對 2020 年的展望？

And then my second question, I'm sorry, I just wanted to push again on the margins for 2019. I know you said -- I think you said 14% to 15%. But like, how is not the midpoint to the high end 14.5% to [5] more realistic, just given price? I mean, material costs are going down. The supplier constraints and inefficiencies should be going away. I just -- I don't understand how we'd get to the low end?

我的第二個問題是，不好意思，我只是想再探討 2019 年的邊際效益。我知道你說過－我想你說過14%到15%。但是，考慮到價格，為什麼中點到高端 14.5% 到 [5] 不是更現實？我的意思是，材料成本正在下降。供應商方面的限制和效率低下問題應該會得到解決。我只是——我不明白我們怎麼會達到低端？

So the backlog -- the customers are engaging in discussions about 2020. They've got their build slots outlined for 2019, and so some of those discussions are occurring and...

所以積壓的工作——客戶們正在討論 2020 年的事情。他們已經規劃好了2019年的生產計劃，因此相關討論正在進行中…

But it's still very limited for 2020. The big fleets plan their requirements into 2020. In general, we haven't issued our pricing for 2020 yet, so that's still to come. So once we launch or issue our pricing for 2020, we'll see more orders for 2020.

但就 2020 年而言，它仍然非常有限。大型車隊正在規劃 2020 年的需求。總的來說，我們還沒有公佈 2020 年的定價，所以這方面的內容仍有待公佈。所以一旦我們發布或公佈 2020 年的定價，我們就會看到 2020 年的訂單量增加。

Yes, and as far as margins...

是的，至於利潤率…

I'm just wondering if you have a strong view on whatever the industry forecasts are out there for 2020 down 25% based on what you're hearing. If you think the market is too pessimistic or you don't forecast you'll run the business no matter what's…

我只是想知道，根據你聽到的消息，你對目前產業預測的 2020 年下降 25% 有什麼看法。如果你認為市場太悲觀，或者你無法預測未來走勢，那麼無論如何你都會繼續經營這家公司…

Yes, I mean, what will actually be 2020, that's to be determined. But as we see it right now, there's -- people still need and want trucks, and we're trying to figure out how to build more trucks. Not -- that's -- and that's what you see a little bit in our first quarter delivery plan.

是的，我的意思是，2020年究竟會是什麼樣子，這還有待確定。但就目前來看，人們仍然需要、想要卡車，我們正在努力想辦法製造更多的卡車。不——那就是——而這正是你在我們的第一季交付計劃中看到的一點內容。

As far as margins, we're just starting the year, given a pretty broad range. And we'll have better feel for how suppliers are going to perform over the year and how cost movements will be, what's the impact of commodities and tariffs, et cetera. So that's still -- we think we have all that pretty well dialed in, but we'll see how it progresses as we go through the first quarter.

就利潤率而言，由於今年才剛開始，利潤範圍相當廣泛。這樣我們就能更了解供應商一年的表現、成本變動、大宗商品和關稅的影響等等。所以目前——我們認為我們已經把所有這些都安排得相當完善了，但我們會看看在第一季進展如何。

Our next question comes from Steven Fisher with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

I wanted to follow up on the supply chain topic. And I think, Ron, you said that the suppliers reached a good shape by the end of the fourth quarter. But I guess I'm curious, you're confident that they'll be able to seamlessly ramp up further to meet a still higher rate of production in 2019.

我想就供應鏈這個主題進行一些後續探討。羅恩，我想你之前說過，供應商在第四季末狀況良好。但我很好奇，您確信他們能夠順利地進一步提高產能，以滿足 2019 年更高的生產力。

Yes, our teams are -- our materials teams, our purchasing teams, our quality teams, they're working closely with our suppliers. And they had some -- our suppliers had some difficult hands they got dealt with a few hurricanes and a few things like that in the second half of last year, which -- that's sort of behind us. And so they've gotten their legs under them, and so we're working closely with them to be able to support the progression of build that we want to achieve during the 2019.

是的，我們的團隊——材料團隊、採購團隊、品質團隊——都在與我們的供應商密切合作。我們的供應商去年下半年遇到了一些困難，例如颶風和其他一些事情，不過——這些都已經過去了。因此，他們已經站穩了腳跟，所以我們正在與他們密切合作，以支持我們在 2019 年想要實現的建設進程。

So is it smooth so far in, say, the month of January?

那麼，比如說，一月份的情況目前為止是否順利？

Yes, January has been the best we've seen in -- through a couple of quarters.

是的，一月份是近幾季以來表現最好的一月份。

Okay, terrific. And then just on Financial Services, just curious how much visibility you have at this point for 2019. I mean, the current quarter of profit was a nice run rate at $87-or-so million. Is that something you expect to build on in 2019? Or might it kind of sustain here and then moderate after a couple of quarters?

好的，太棒了。然後，就金融服務領域而言，我很好奇您目前對 2019 年的前景有多大的了解。我的意思是，本季的利潤成長率相當不錯，達到了 8700 萬美元左右。這是你希望在2019年繼續發展的方向嗎？或者這種情況可能會持續一段時間，然後在幾個季度後有所緩和？

Well, we've grown the portfolio with the additional truck deliveries, record truck deliveries and the ability that we've -- we financed about 24% of those globally last year, and we expect that will continue next year. So I think we'll continue to see some modest portfolio growth, and right now, the portfolio is performing excellently. Our past dues are really at historically low levels. And so we enter 2019 in good shape, and so we feel good about where we're at for 2019 with our Financial Services business, for sure.

嗯，我們透過增加卡車交付量、創紀錄的卡車交付量以及我們擁有的能力擴大了投資組合——去年我們為全球約 24% 的卡車交付量提供了融資，我們預計明年將繼續保持這一水平。所以我認為我們將繼續看到投資組合的溫和成長，而且目前該投資組合的表現非常出色。我們之前的會費確實處於歷史低點。因此，我們以良好的狀態進入了 2019 年，我們對 2019 年金融服務業務的發展前景感到非常滿意。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe O'Dea with Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Joe O'Dea。

First, just wanted to understand gross margin potential. And when you talk about another strong year in 2019 and a 14% to 15% range. And you go back to the middle part of last decade in a strong market conditions when you're doing a 15% to 16% range, a host of things on the emissions front, obviously, price cost considerations, but just wanted to understand the major kind of structural swings that appear to mark a step down in the structural sort of gross margin potential.

首先，我只是想了解毛利率潛力。而當你談到 2019 年又是一個強勁的年份，成長率在 14% 到 15% 之間。回到上個十年中期，在強勁的市場環境下，當時的毛利率在 15% 到 16% 之間，排放方面有很多因素，當然還有價格成本方面的考慮，但我只是想了解一下，哪些主要的結構性波動似乎標誌著毛利率潛力的結構性下降。

14% to 15% margins are excellent. There could have been some unusual circumstances 10 years ago, 15 years ago, but I think we're in great shape. The cost and the revenue side of trucks these days are much higher, given all the emissions add-ons that have occurred over time, so that probably could have some impact on the percentage realization over time. But whether it's 14% or 15%, 15% to 16%, it's pretty strong.

14%到15%的利潤率非常可觀。10年前、15年前可能會有一些特殊情況，但我認為我們現在的情況非常好。如今卡車的成本和收入都高得多，因為隨著時間的推移，排放標準不斷提高，這可能會對卡車的實現百分比產生一定影響。但無論是 14% 還是 15%，15% 到 16%，都相當強勁。

Okay. And then on the share repo front, stepping it up in 2018, but vis-à-vis, the cash that's on the balance sheet, the potential to do something much larger than, and I guess, maybe just why not step it up and be a little bit more active on the share repo front?

好的。然後在股票回購方面，2018 年加大了力度，但相對於資產負債表上的現金而言，有潛力做更大的事情，我想，為什麼不加大力度，在股票回購方面更積極一些呢？

Yes. We just -- we feel really good. If you look at our cash over time, it's plus or minus 15% of our balance sheet, and we're basically sitting about that point. And so we're quite comfortable with where we're at and continuing to opportunistically buy shares has worked for us, and we will continue to apply that approach in 2019.

是的。我們感覺非常好。如果觀察我們歷年的現金流，它占我們資產負債表的正負 15%，而我們目前基本上就處於這個水平附近。因此，我們對目前的狀況相當滿意，繼續伺機買入股票的做法對我們很有效，我們將在 2019 年繼續採用這種方法。

And then just one on DAF and the share gains in 2018. I think some nice progress toward the 20% target. When you think about the momentum you have there, the good orders that you have in 4Q, I mean, do you have any kind of sense on sort of hitting that 20% target? Does that time line look more in view today than it has over the past couple of years, I imagine? And just trying to think about the -- what you see out there as a reasonable time line to get there?

然後，就 DAF 和 2018 年的股價上漲情況而言，只有一篇。我認為在實現 20% 的目標方面取得了一些不錯的進展。考慮到你們目前的勢頭，以及第四季良好的訂單情況，你們覺得能否達到 20% 的目標？我想，與過去幾年相比，如今這個時間表似乎更有可能實現了吧？我只是想思考一下——你認為實現目標的合理時間表是什麼？

Yes, so if you look at 20 years' history, we were at 10% 20 years ago, and now we've progressed to 16.6%. So is 20 in our sights? Absolutely. And a key reason for the success this year was the -- that model year '17 truck that was an excellent investment, both from a performance standpoint, a apparent standpoint, a fit-and-finish standpoint. So it's -- the truck has just gotten better and better, and we're continuing to make investments for the future. And I think as -- just as we've seen in North America, we've grown -- in that 20-year period, we've grown basically 9 share points in North America from 21 to 30. And so yes, 20% is definitely in our sights.

是的，回顧過去 20 年的歷史，20 年前我們的佔比是 10%，現在我們已經發展到 16.6%。所以，我們的目標是20嗎？絕對地。今年成功的關鍵原因在於——2017 年款的卡車，無論從性能、外觀還是組裝工藝來看，都是一項極好的投資。所以——這輛卡車變得越來越好，我們也持續為未來投資。而且我認為，正如我們在北美所看到的，在過去的 20 年裡，我們在北美的市佔率基本上成長了 9 個百分點，從 21% 成長到 30%。所以，是的，20%絕對是我們的目標。

Our next question comes from the line of Neil Frohnapple with The Buckingham Research.

我們的下一個問題來自白金漢研究公司的尼爾·弗羅納普爾。

At the Investor Day, Ron, you guys talked about the potential down the road of expanding further into China. Can you provide any commentary here? Has the vision changed at all with all the cross-currents?

羅恩，在投資者日上，你們談到了未來進一步拓展中國市場的潛力。您對此有何評論？在各種複雜因素的影響下，願景是否有所改變？

It hasn't changed. We continue to look for a window of opportunity that can provide a return, and that's the challenge in China is finding the right combination where you can get a reasonable return. Harrie, Preston and I, we've all traveled there in the last several months. And so we continue to be there, evaluate it. And the window will open, but it's just -- it's an area of future opportunity, and we'll continue to evaluate just there as we do other parts of Asia.

情況沒有改變。我們一直在尋找能夠帶來回報的機會窗口，而中國面臨的挑戰在於找到合適的組合，以獲得合理的回報。哈利、普雷斯頓和我，在過去的幾個月裡都去過那裡。因此，我們會繼續在那裡，進行評估。機會之窗終會開啟，但這只是——這是一個充滿未來機會的領域，我們將繼續評估那裡的情況，就像我們評估亞洲其他地區的情況一樣。

All right. And then can you provide an outlook for the North American medium-duty market. It seemed to show more signs of life and exhibit faster growth in 2018. So yes, just curious on what your thoughts are for that market in 2019.

好的。那麼，您能否展望一下北美中型卡車市場前景？2018年，它似乎展現出更多的生命跡象，生長速度也更快。所以，我很好奇您對2019年該市場的看法。

Yes, the Class 6 and 7 market, which is where we play, is roughly up 100,000 trucks in 2018, and Peterbilt and Kenworth achieved record deliveries, record market share, 17.5%. So the products that we have are doing great. And just like everything else, we'll continue to make investments into product enhancements as we go forward. And as time goes on, more and more and more of our dealers get more engaged in that business. And so as we look at 2019, we think 100,000 trucks is probably a pretty reasonable approximation of that market for this year.

是的，我們所處的 6 級和 7 級卡車市場在 2018 年增長了約 10 萬輛，彼得比爾特和肯沃斯的交付量和市場份額均創下紀錄，達到 17.5%。所以我們現有的產品銷售情況非常好。就像其他事情一樣，我們將繼續加大對產品改進的投資。隨著時間的推移，越來越多的經銷商開始參與這項業務。因此，展望 2019 年，我們認為 10 萬輛卡車可能是對今年市場的相當合理的估計。

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Uhlman with Cleveland Research.

我們的下一個問題來自克利夫蘭研究公司的亞當·烏爾曼。

I was wondering if you could chat about the MX engine. I think I heard earlier, Ron, you mentioned adding some more machining capacity. I assume you're kind of maxed out on production today, but correct me if I'm wrong. And what type of growth should we expect in that business, either in terms of penetration or production rates in 2019 as that investment comes online?

我想問您是否可以聊聊MX引擎。羅恩，我之前好像聽到你提到要增加一些加工能力。我猜你今天的生產任務已經接近尾聲了，如果我錯了請糾正我。隨著這項投資在 2019 年投入運營，我們應該預期該業務在市場滲透率或生產力方面會有怎樣的成長？

Yes, so the -- we'll start making those investments in 2019. The coming online is probably 2020 and will -- that'll be able to support the increased penetration. As we said before, the MX engine, basically, will support 80% of customer applications, and it just takes time to increase that penetration. We could put more in today if we had the capacity. And so that's why we're making the additional investments, and we'll continue to see that penetration grow to 50%, 60% over the coming near-term period, I think.

是的，所以我們將從 2019 年開始進行這些投資。上線時間可能是 2020 年，而且——這將能夠支援更高的滲透率。正如我們之前所說，MX引擎基本上可以支援80%的客戶應用程序，只是需要時間來提高其滲透率。如果我們有足夠的產能，今天就可以投入更多。所以這就是我們追加投資的原因，我認為在接下來的短期內，滲透率將繼續成長到 50% 到 60%。

And where did we end in 2018?

2018 年我們最終取得了怎樣的成就？

Yes, just over 40% in North America. And of course, it's 100% for all the DAF products that get sold in Brazil and Europe. And so I think, overall for PACCAR, it's about 60% penetration for all of PACCAR.

是的，北美地區略高於 40%。當然，所有在巴西和歐洲銷售的 DAF 產品都 100% 享受此優惠。因此我認為，總體而言，PACCAR 的滲透率約為 60%。

Got you. And then can we switch back to Europe? And could you talk about what you're seeing in the used truck pricing there? And then is there any difference between Western Europe or Eastern Europe? Any kind of changes will be helpful.

抓到你了。然後我們能切換回歐洲嗎？您能否談談您觀察到的當地二手卡車價格？那麼西歐和東歐之間有什麼差別嗎？任何改變都會有所幫助。

Yes, it's -- pricing is pretty steady. Not seeing any appreciation, but just pretty steady. And demand, more of the used trucks tend to go towards Central and Eastern Europe. There's -- that's also a big growth area for DAF for new trucks. DAF is the leader in the Central European markets. And so that's steady as she goes is how I would think about it. That's what we saw in 2018 is how we're thinking about 2019 at this point.

是的，價格相當穩定。沒看到任何升值跡象，但價格一直很穩定。而且，由於需求增加，越來越多的二手卡車流向中歐和東歐。對 DAF 而言，這也是新卡車的一個重要成長領域。DAF是中歐市場的領導者。所以，我會這樣看待她：她穩定地前進。我們在 2018 年看到的，正是我們目前對 2019 年的展望。

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Scott Group 與 Wolfe Research 的合作者。

It's Rob Salmon on for Scott. In the guidance that you provided, at the midpoint, it's implying roughly a little under 10% growth in the R&D budget. Could you talk about how we should be thinking about the R&D as we look out a few years in light of some of the emission standards changes as well as the investments that you guys are making into some kind of new trucking products? And what the flexibility you guys have on that line item if we do kind of encounter an industry downturn in 2020?

羅布·薩爾蒙代替斯科特上場。在您提供的指導意見中，中間值意味著研發預算成長幅度大約略低於 10%。鑑於排放標準的變化以及貴公司對一些新型卡車產品的投資，您能否談談在未來幾年我們該如何看待研發問題？如果2020年我們真的遇到產業低迷的情況，你們在這個預算項目上有什麼彈性？

Well, the flexibility of managing cost structure is a real strength of PACCAR, and we can manage that quite well. But also, we're making some great investments, as we always do, in the products for the future. I would say, incrementally, we're going to -- we're seeing more investments in R&D on the alternative powertrain and software development side. That's where the intellectual property is being created, and we're making those investments there. And we continue to make good, strong investments in diesel powertrains. We've got emissions requirements being enhanced in really all of our markets. And so we continue to invest in those arenas and in the new products of the features that are going to get us to those market share goals that we talked about earlier.

成本結構管理的靈活性是 PACCAR 的一大優勢，我們在這方面做得很好。但同時，我們也像往常一樣，對未來的產品進行了一些重大投資。我認為，我們將逐步看到——我們看到在替代動力系統和軟體開發方面的研發投入不斷增加。那裡是知識產權的誕生地，我們也在那裡進行投資。我們將繼續在柴油動力系統領域進行穩健而有力的投資。我們幾乎所有市場的排放要求都在不斷提高。因此，我們將繼續投資於這些領域以及能夠幫助我們實現先前所談到的市場份額目標的新產品和新功能。

Okay, that makes sense. With the record backlog, has that given you any ability to kind of make the pricing as well as the orders be much more firm throughout kind of 2019, just given that we're looking at roughly a 12-month delay in terms of when a truck is ordered to when it gets produced today?

嗯，有道理。由於訂單積壓量創歷史新高，這是否讓你們有能力在 2019 年全年使定價和訂單更加穩定？畢竟，從訂購卡車到生產，目前大約需要 12 個月的時間。

The pricing has been negotiated, agreed, and it's representative of our market price and the great value that our products bring to our customers. So it's pretty well set.

價格已經過協商和商定，它代表了我們的市場價格以及我們的產品為客戶帶來的巨大價值。所以一切基本上都安排妥當了。

Our next question comes from the line of Joel Tiss with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Joel Tiss。

I just wondered if you could talk a little bit about your approach on autonomous. Are you guys going to outsource that whole process? Or are you thinking that there's parts of that, that you'd like to take control of? Or just give me a little sense in that regard of how you guys are thinking about that?

我想請您談談您對自動駕駛的看法。你們打算把整個流程外包出去嗎？還是你認為其中有些部分是你想要掌控的？或者，你們能不能簡單跟我說說你們在這方面是怎麼考慮的？

Yes, we're still working through that, Joel. We've worked with quite a few companies who are developing autonomous technology, so partnering with them. But we're also developing our own capabilities. We have our Silicon Valley Innovation Center, and we've hired software engineers specifically focusing on developing our own Level 4 capability. And so we're very focused on, again, sort of like alternative powertrains, trying to figure out where we want to have the intellectual property and where we want to partner with others on developing that capability.

是的，我們還在努力解決這個問題，喬爾。我們已經與不少開發自動駕駛技術的公司合作，與他們建立了夥伴關係。但我們也正在發展自身的能力。我們在矽谷設有創新中心，並聘請了專門的軟體工程師，致力於開發我們自己的 4 級能力。因此，我們非常關注替代動力系統，試圖弄清楚我們希望在哪些方面擁有智慧財產權，以及我們希望與哪些方面與其他公司合作開發這種能力。

There are no other questions in queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

目前沒有其他問題在排隊。公司還有其他補充說明嗎？

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call, and thank you, operator.

感謝各位參與通話，也謝謝接線生。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，PACCAR的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。