帕卡 (PCAR) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time.

早安，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2019 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的通話正在錄音，如有任何異議，請立即掛斷電話。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我謹向大家介紹 PACCAR 的投資者關係總監 Ken Hastings 先生。哈斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller.

早安.我們歡迎透過電話收聽的聽眾和透過網路直播收聽的聽眾。我是肯‧黑斯廷斯，PACCAR公司的投資人關係總監。今天早上和我一起參加節目的有：首席執行官普雷斯頓·費特；總裁兼首席財務官哈里·希珀斯；以及高級副總裁兼財務總監邁克爾·巴克利。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general, economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings in the Investor Relations page of paccar.com.

與以往的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有參與電話會議的媒體成員以只聽模式參與。今天公佈的某些資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的總體經濟和競爭狀況。如需了解更多信息，請訪問 paccar.com 的投資者關係頁面，查看我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

現在我來介紹普雷斯頓費特。

Good morning. Harrie Schippers and I will provide you an update on PACCAR's excellent third quarter results and business highlights. To begin, I'm proud of our employees around the world who provide our customers the highest quality trucks, powertrains and transportation solutions.

早安.哈里希珀斯和我將向大家介紹帕卡公司第三季優異的業績和業務亮點。首先，我為我們遍布全球的員工感到自豪，他們為我們的客戶提供最高品質的卡車、動力系統和運輸解決方案。

In the third quarter, PACCAR achieved sales and Financial Services revenues of $6.4 billion and net income of $608 million, resulting in a strong 9.5% after-tax return on revenues. PACCAR net income increased 11% compared to the third quarter of last year. PACCAR achieved robust Truck, Parts and Other gross margins of 14.9% in the third quarter and also for the year-to-date.

第三季度，PACCAR 的銷售和金融服務收入達到 64 億美元，淨收入為 6.08 億美元，稅後收入回報率高達 9.5%。PACCAR公司淨利較去年第三季成長11%。PACCAR 第三季卡車、零件及其他業務的毛利率強勁成長，達到 14.9%，今年迄今的毛利率也保持穩定。

Through the first 9 months of the year, our team achieved record revenue and earnings. PACCAR delivered 49,300 trucks during the third quarter compared to 52,200 in the second quarter. This reflects fewer build days in Europe due to DAF's regular summer shutdown, which was partially offset by higher deliveries in North America.

今年前9個月，我們的團隊實現了創紀錄的收入和利潤。PACCAR 第三季交付了 49,300 輛卡車，而第二季交付了 52,200 輛。這反映出由於 DAF 夏季定期停工，歐洲的生產天數減少，但北美交付量的增加部分抵消了這一影響。

In the fourth quarter, deliveries will be lower by 6% to 8% compared to the third quarter due to fewer production days in North America and lower daily build rates in North America and Europe. Fourth quarter Truck, Parts and Other gross margins are estimated to be in the range of 14% to 14.5%. PACCAR declared third quarter dividends of $0.32 per share and year-to-date dividends of $0.96 per share. Year-to-date dividends were 19% higher than dividends declared in the same period last year.

第四季度，由於北美生產天數減少以及北美和歐洲每日產量下降，交付量將比第三季減少 6% 至 8%。預計第四季卡車、零件及其他業務的毛利率在 14% 至 14.5% 之間。PACCAR宣布第三季每股派息0.32美元，年初至今每股派息0.96美元。今年迄今的股息比去年同期宣布的股息高出 19%。

We repurchased 833,000 shares of stock during the third quarter and there's $431 million remaining in the current $500 million Board of Directors' authorization.

我們在第三季回購了 833,000 股股票，目前董事會授權的 5 億美元中還剩下 4.31 億美元。

PACCAR continues to create a full lineup of innovative truck models and technologies. Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF have introduced a range of electric powertrain vehicles in the last 2 years that customers are field testing in a variety of applications. PACCAR is well-positioned to supply the industry with a complete set of powertrain technologies, including battery electric, fuel cell and diesel engines. This year, PACCAR has opened 2 global software research and development centers in the U.S. and Europe that are accelerating the development of embedded vehicle software and PACCAR connected vehicle solutions for our customers.

PACCAR 不斷打造一系列創新卡車車型和技術。在過去的兩年裡，肯沃斯、彼得比爾特和達夫推出了一系列電動動力總成車輛，客戶正在各種應用場景中進行實地測試。PACCAR 擁有得天獨厚的優勢，能夠為業界提供全套動力總成技術，包括電池電動、燃料電池和柴油引擎。今年，PACCAR 在美國和歐洲開設了 2 個全球軟體研發中心，正在加速為我們的客戶開發嵌入式車輛軟體和 PACCAR 連網車輛解決方案。

The PACCAR Innovation Center in the Silicon Valley, which we opened in 2017, complements PACCAR's extensive R&D efforts and is focused on the development of PACCAR level 2 and 4 autonomous trucks. PACCAR will showcase many of our innovative products and technologies at the North American Commercial Vehicle Show in Atlanta next week, and at the CES Technology Show in Las Vegas in January. We hope to see you there.

我們在 2017 年開設的位於矽谷的 PACCAR 創新中心，是 PACCAR 廣泛研發工作的補充，專注於 PACCAR 2 級和 4 級自動駕駛卡車的開發。PACCAR 將於下週在亞特蘭大舉行的北美商用車展上，以及明年一月在拉斯維加斯舉行的 CES 科技展上，展示我們的許多創新產品和技術。我們希望在那裡見到你。

We are pleased to share that Kenworth, Peterbilt and PACCAR Parts were each recognized as top employers for women at the Women and Trucking Annual Conference. We were honored for our excellent work environment and company culture that supports gender diversity.

我們很高興地宣布，肯沃斯、彼得比爾特和帕卡零件公司在女性與卡車運輸年度大會上均被評為女性最佳雇主。我們因擁有良好的工作環境和支持性別多元化的公司文化而感到榮幸。

Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on PACCAR's Truck segment, PACCAR Parts, Financial Services and investment priorities for next year.

哈里希珀斯將介紹 PACCAR 卡車業務、PACCAR 零件業務、金融服務業務以及明年的投資重點。

Thanks, Preston. Our 2019 forecast is for Europe's greater than 16-tonne truck market to be in a range of 310,000 to 320,000 units, reflecting continued modest economic growth and strong truck demand. Next year, the eurozone and U.K. economies are expected to grow about 1%. We expect 2020 to be another good year, with the European above 16-tonne truck market in a range of 260,000 to 290,000 vehicles.

謝謝你，普雷斯頓。我們預測，2019 年歐洲 16 噸以上卡車市場銷量將在 31 萬至 32 萬輛之間，這反映了經濟持續溫和成長和強勁的卡車需求。預計明年歐元區和英國經濟將成長約1%。我們預計 2020 年將是另一個好年頭，歐洲 16 噸以上卡車市場銷量將在 26 萬至 29 萬輛之間。

The U.S. economy is growing 2.3% this year, a 50-year low unemployment and strong consumer spending. Freight tonnage has grown 4.2% year-to-date. In the U.S. and Canada, Class 8 industry retail sales continued to grow in 2019 following the strong orders and production over the last 2 years. We estimate 2019 U.S. and Canadian Class 8 industry retail sales to be in the range of 310,000 to 320,000 trucks. We expect 2020 to be another good economy and estimate the U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck markets to be in the range of 230,000 to 260,000 trucks, in line with normal deflation demand.

美國經濟今年成長2.3%，失業率創50年來新低，消費支出強勁。今年迄今為止，貨運噸位增加了4.2%。在美國和加拿大，在過去兩年強勁的訂單和生產之後，8 級工業零售額在 2019 年繼續增長。我們估計 2019 年美國和加拿大 8 級卡車產業的零售銷售將在 31 萬輛至 32 萬輛之間。我們預計 2020 年經濟狀況依​​然良好，並估計美國和加拿大 8 級卡車市場規模將在 23 萬至 26 萬輛之間，符合正常的通貨緊縮需求。

The South American above 16-tonne truck market should be in a range of 95,000 to 105,000 trucks this year and slightly higher in 2020.

今年南美洲 16 噸以上卡車市場銷量應在 95,000 至 105,000 輛之間，2020 年銷量將略有增長。

In Brazil, the above 16-tonne truck segment is projected to be in the range of 65,000 to 75,000 vehicles this year and slightly higher next year. PACCAR Parts business generated strong quarterly revenues of $1 billion. Quarterly pretax income was $207 million, 10% higher than the third quarter last year. Consistent investments in parts distribution capacity, customer-focused programs such as fleet services and TRP stores, and a growing number of PACCAR trucks and engines in operations drove these results.

在巴西，預計今年16噸以上的卡車市場銷量將在65,000至75,000輛之間，明年將略有成長。PACCAR零件業務季度營收強勁，達到10億美元。季度稅前收入為 2.07 億美元，比去年第三季成長 10%。對零件分銷能力的持續投資、以客戶為中心的計劃（如車隊服務和 TRP 商店），以及 PACCAR 卡車和發動機投入運營數量的不斷增長，推動了這些成果的取得。

Since 2013, DAF, Kenworth and Peterbilt dealers have opened nearly 200 TRP retail stores on 6 continents. The stores provide high-quality TRP-branded aftermarket products and services to owners of all makes of trucks, trailers, buses and engines. PACCAR Parts is constructing 2 new distribution centers that will open next year. A 250,000 square-foot facility in Las Vegas, which will make efficient use of solar power; and a 160,000 square-foot facility in Ponta Grossa, Brazil. We expect Parts sales to grow by 4% to 6% next year.

自 2013 年以來，DAF、Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 的經銷商已在六大洲開設了近 200 家 TRP 零售店。這些商店為各種品牌卡車、拖車、巴士和引擎的車主提供高品質的 TRP 品牌售後產品和服務。PACCAR Parts 正在建造 2 個新的配送中心，將於明年投入使用。位於拉斯維加斯的一座佔地 25 萬平方英尺的設施將高效利用太陽能；以及位於巴西蓬塔格羅薩的一座佔地 16 萬平方英尺的設施。我們預計明年零件銷售額將成長 4% 至 6%。

PACCAR Financial Services earned third quarter pretax income of $67 million. The portfolio was a record $15.6 billion this quarter and performed well with low past dues.

PACCAR金融服務公司第三季稅前收入為6700萬美元。本季投資組合規模達到創紀錄的 156 億美元，表現良好，逾期未付款項較低。

In the third quarter, industry used truck inventory increased and used truck pricing declined. Kenworth and Peterbilt truck resale values commanded 10% to 15% premium in the market. We estimate 2019 capital spending to be in the range of $675 million to $725 million, and R&D expenses to be $325 million to $335 million.

第三季度，行業二手卡車庫存增加，二手卡車價格下降。肯沃斯和彼得比爾特卡車的轉售價格在市場上溢價 10% 至 15%。我們預計 2019 年資本支出將在 6.75 億美元至 7.25 億美元之間，研發支出將在 3.25 億美元至 3.35 億美元之間。

In 2020, we're planning for capital investments of $625 million to $675 million and R&D expenses of $320 million to $350 million. These investments will continue to enhance PACCAR's Truck, Powertrains and Transportation Solutions.

2020年，我們計劃投入6.25億美元至6.75億美元的資本，以及3.2億美元至3.5億美元的研發費用。這些投資將持續提升 PACCAR 的卡車、動力系統和運輸解決方案。

Thank you. We'll be pleased to answer your questions.

謝謝。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Joel Tiss with BMO.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 BMO 的 Joel Tiss。

I'm not used to being first. How's it going, guys? First time for everything, I guess. So I just wondered if you could give us any sense of production levels for 2020 after mentioning kind of -- we got a sense of where the industry's going to be and then mentioning that inventories for the industry are up a little bit. And I just wondered if you could give us any sense of where your production -- where you're thinking for 2020?

我不習慣當第一名。大家好嗎？凡事都有第一次，我想。所以我想知道，在提到行業發展方向以及行業庫存略有上升之後，您能否給我們一些關於 2020 年生產水平的估計。我只是想問您能否大致介紹一下您的製作情況——您對 2020 年的規劃是什麼？

Sure. As we've watched the industry normalize, if we look at inventory, we really think that right now is not in bad shape at all for us. We just have 2.4 months of inventory retail sales sitting out there. So that's a nice level, in good shape. We've already adjusted our backlog to be -- we have 36% of the backlog in the industry. So that's in good shape. And then as we look forward and think about build rates, we took adjustments into the third quarter there, for both North America and Europe to get them right for the markets, so that we feel like we've got a reasonable build going into 2020.

當然。隨著產業逐漸恢復正常，如果我們看一下庫存，我們認為目前我們的庫存狀況其實相當不錯。我們目前積壓了相當於 2.4 個月零售額的庫存。所以這個等級不錯，狀況良好。我們已經調整了積壓訂單量，目前我們擁有業內 36% 的積壓訂單量。所以情況良好。然後，當我們展望未來並考慮建設速度時，我們在第三季度對北美和歐洲的建設速度進行了調整，以使其符合市場需求，這樣我們才能確保在 2020 年實現合理的建設速度。

Okay. And can you give us any sense about the Parts' margins? I could see and we could all see in 2019 the margins are up a little bit, profits growing faster than revenues. You gave us a revenue number for next year, is there enough momentum in the business and the new Parts distribution centers to be able to do that again in 2020, you think?

好的。能大致介紹一下各部分的利潤率嗎？我可以看到，我們也都能看到，2019 年利潤率略有上升，利潤成長速度超過了營收成長速度。您給出了明年的收入數字，您認為公司業務和新的零件配送中心是否有足夠的成長勢頭，能夠在 2020 年再次實現這一目標？

I think the guidance we gave on the 4% to 6% growth, and I think margins would likely be comparable to what we saw this year.

我認為我們之前給出的 4% 到 6% 的成長預期是成立的，而且我認為利潤率可能與我們今年看到的相當。

The 27% to 28% range, that's what we typically see for Parts.

零件的佔比通常在 27% 到 28% 之間。

Our next question comes from Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的史蒂芬‧沃克曼。

I'm not used to Joel being first either, but maybe I'll pile onto his question a little bit. So Preston, just thank you for the comments around sort of production expectations. Is it your expectation at this point that the production declines that you've kind of baked in here in the second half of '19 will be enough, and that you'll be able to sort of keep stable through 2020? Is that the way the plan is laid out?

我也不太習慣喬爾第一個提問，不過也許我可以稍微補充他的問題。所以普雷斯頓，非常感謝你對製作預期的評論。你目前是否預期，2019 年下半年產量下降的幅度足以彌補損失，並能讓公司在 2020 年保持穩定？計劃是這樣安排的嗎？

I think we'll watch what happens in 2020. I don't think it's going to be an even year. Every month will be different, I mean, every quarter will be different. So we'll make sure that we adjust build rate appropriate to the orders we have. Right now, we have reasonable backlog in the first quarter, especially in North America. So we feel like we've got ourselves about right. We'll watch as the year comes along, what we need to do whether it goes up or down in build rate.

我想我們拭目以待2020年的發展。我認為今年不會是偶數年。每個月都會不一樣，我的意思是，每季都會不一樣。因此，我們將確保根據訂單情況調整生產速度。目前，我們第一季的訂單積壓情況良好，尤其是在北美地區。所以我覺得我們已經基本調整好了。我們將密切關注這一年的發展，看看無論建築速度上升或下降，我們都需要採取哪些措施。

Okay. Understood. And can we talk, maybe this is a Harrie question, just a little bit about the decremental margins since I guess it will be decremental next year. You've done a good job holding your incrementals kind of in the mid-teens with an occasional high teens kind of number. And I'm just curious, as you have sort of more vertically integrated a little bit with your engine growth in the U.S. and all these parts distribution centers, et cetera, do think your decremental margin will also be in that kind of mid-teens level? Or is there a reason to think it could be higher because of the additional investment?

好的。明白了。我們能談談嗎？也許這個問題應該由哈利來回答，我想稍微談談利潤率下降的問題，因為我猜明年利潤率會下降。你做得很好，增量基本上保持在十幾度，偶爾會達到十幾度。我很好奇，隨著你們在美國的引擎業務成長以及零件分銷中心等的建立，你們的垂直整​​合程度有所提高，你們認為你們的利潤率下降幅度也會在十幾個百分點左右嗎？或者，是否有理由認為由於額外的投資，價格可能會更高？

I think we've -- historically, we've seen incremental and decremental margins in the 15% to 20% range, and I would expect that to be similar for next year.

我認為，從歷史上看，我們已經看到利潤率在 15% 到 20% 之間波動，我預計明年的情況也會類似。

Our next question comes from Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自富國證券的安迪凱西。

A couple of questions. First, on the Financial Services, and this is kind of picking at it, but SG&A and provision for losses on receivables were up a little bit sequentially and year-over-year. What was driving that change? And was it due to any specific region?

幾個問題。首先，關於金融服務業，雖然這有點吹毛求疵，但銷售、一般及行政費用和應收帳款損失準備金環比和同比均略有上升。是什麼因素促成了這種改變？這是否與某個特定地區有關？

What we saw in Financial Services, we've had really low credit losses. We've had low past dues. The portfolio continues to perform really well, in fact, we're pretty pleased with that portfolio. The only headwind we've had in Financial Services was used trucks.

我們在金融服務領域看到的是，信用損失非常低。我們之前的欠款很少。該投資組合的表現一直非常出色，事實上，我們對投資組合相當滿意。我們在金融服務領域遇到的唯一不利因素是二手卡車。

Okay. And then I just want to make sure I have this right, if I compare the Truck segment performance to Q3 '18, you had a pretty beneficial gross spread between the 12% revenue increase and the 3% volume growth. And I recall Q3 last year had some timing issues related to buyback contracts and stuff like that. Was that the difference in the revenue growth and the volume growth really driven by comps and pricing? Or was there something else that occurred in the quarter?

好的。然後我想確認我的理解是否正確，如果我將卡車業務板塊的業績與 2018 年第三季度進行比較，那麼 12% 的收入增長和 3% 的銷量增長之間的毛利差相當可觀。我記得去年第三季在回購合約等方面出現了一些時間安排上的問題。營收成長與銷售成長之間的差異真的是由同店銷售和定價策略所驅動的嗎？或者，這個季度還發生了其他事情嗎？

Yes. If you just think about what this quarter was about, we did have reasonable pricing influence and -- that more than offset costs. So I think those are the things that drove our stronger margin performance for the quarter. I don't know if I've gone back and done some kind of a bridge to sort of the 3Q of '18 numbers and what was going on back in there.

是的。如果你仔細想想這個季度的情況，你會發現我們確實擁有合理的定價影響力，而且這足以抵銷成本。所以我認為這些因素推動了我們本季利潤率的提升。我不知道我是否已經回顧並整理了 2018 年第三季的數據以及當時的情況。

We did have fewer operating lease deferrals in Q3 of '19 versus Q3 of '18. And therefore, that helped our revenue a bit.

與 2018 年第三季相比，2019 年第三季的經營租賃延期付款數量有所減少。因此，這在一定程度上提升了我們的收入。

Okay. And then on the used truck market in North America, you mentioned inventories are growing, I think. Have you started to see the price trends kind of gradually decline? Or are we starting to see more double digit?

好的。然後，關於北美二手卡車市場，您提到庫存正在增長，我想是這樣的。你是否已經開始注意到價格趨勢逐漸下降的趨勢？還是我們開始看到更多兩位數的成長率了？

So if you think about used trucks, one of the things that has been nice for PACCAR is we've made investments over the past few years to grow our used truck capability, we created a new used truck center in Los Angeles. We're in the middle of creating one in Denton, Texas. It'll open in the fourth quarter. Obviously, PACCAR's used trucks provide premium value in the marketplace. So that's a nice thing for our customers and really have a 10% to 15% premium over our competitors, and actually sometimes more than that compared to some of the competitors.

所以，如果你想到二手卡車，對 PACCAR 來說，一件好事是我們在過去幾年裡投資發展了我們的二手卡車能力，我們在洛杉磯創建了一個新的二手卡車中心。我們正在德克薩斯州丹頓市建造一座。它將於第四季開業。顯然，PACCAR的二手卡車在市場上具有很高的價值。所以這對我們的客戶來說是件好事，我們的產品比競爭對手高出 10% 到 15% 的溢價，實際上有時比某些競爭對手的溢價還要高。

But we have seen the used truck market in general go into that double-digit level of decline, so that 10% to 15% decline. And that's already been kind of dealt with through this quarter.

但我們看到二手卡車市場整體出現了兩位數的下滑，也就是下滑了 10% 到 15%。這個問題在本季已經基本解決。

Our next question comes from Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的安·杜伊尼安。

Our data that we analyze and publish shows that while you do garner a premium in the used market, your used prices are down year-over-year just like everybody else's, so thank you for confirming that.

我們分析和發布的數據顯示，雖然您在二手市場確實能獲得溢價，但您的二手價格與其他人一樣，逐年下降，所以感謝您證實這一點。

My question's around the month of inventory at your dealers, I mean you note 2.4 months, but that's based on a trailing 12-month -- trailing sales whichever are at a peak. So isn't it inevitable that as we go into next year, those months of supply into dealers are going to expand and you're going to have to cut production. So could you just talk about that? And why you wouldn't have to underproduce retail sales going into next year, despite the fact that you've got higher backlog?

我的問題是關於你們經銷商的庫存月數，我的意思是，你們提到了 2.4 個月，但這是基於過去 12 個月的銷售數據，也就是以銷售高峰期為準。所以，隨著我們進入明年，經銷商的供貨量肯定會增加，而你們不得不削減產量，這不是不可避免的嗎？所以您能談談這個嗎？即使積壓訂單較多，為什麼明年不必降低零售產量？

Well, I think maybe that's a little bit less than I would think about it. And I think we feel like the inventory, what you admitted, what you acknowledge is a trailing run rate, we still do talk to our dealers all the time and our customers all the time and we see that there will be good demand for the products as we look forward. So I would say that the last quarter's order intake has been lower, but as we get into the fourth quarter and we're meeting with customers, talking about what next year's buying pattern is going to be, I expect people will be buying trucks. And I think that indeed the vocational market seems to continue to be very solid throughout the country, throughout Canada. So I would expect that our inventory is okay as far as adjustments go to production like we said earlier, I think we make those adjustments up and down as the market demands it.

嗯，我覺得可能比我想像的少一點。我認為，就庫存而言，正如您所承認的，我們一直與經銷商和客戶保持溝通，並展望未來，我們認為產品將有良好的需求。所以我認為上一季的訂單量有所下降，但隨著我們進入第四季度，與客戶會面，討論明年的購買模式，我預計人們會購買卡車。而且我認為，職業培訓市場在全國範圍內，甚至整個加拿大，似乎仍然非常穩健。因此，我認為我們的庫存應該沒問題，至於生產調整，就像我們之前說的，我認為我們會根據市場需求進行上下調整。

Yes. That's for sure. And then just based on your guys' history, I know that the truck cycles over the long-term, and a lot of them had been man-made, but if we're going into a decline in 2020, for whatever reason, have we ever seen a cycle that's only 1 year decline? Or should we be bracing for a couple of years and then back to normal again? Just your perspective on that from your years of experience will be beneficial.

是的。那當然。根據你們的歷史經驗，我知道卡車市場長期存在週期性波動，其中許多波動都是人為造成的，但如果由於某種原因，我們在 2020 年進入衰退期，我們是否曾經見過僅持續 1 年的衰退週期？或者我們應該做好準備，迎接幾年的衝擊，然後一切恢復正常？您憑藉多年的經驗，對此提出的見解將非常有益。

Yes. That's a tough thing to forecast out what kind of a decline rate there would be and if it might last longer than a year, I think we probably look at this and say there's still strong economic fundamentals in the U.S. and Canada right now. GDP is positive, tonne miles are high. I think we think there's normalizing of the market estimate of 230,000 to 260,000 is just kind of feels like where things are happening to as far as it being beyond next year. No idea if it's just a pause in the economy or it will reaccelerate or if it will slow down for more than a year.

是的。很難預測經濟下滑的速度，以及下滑是否會持續一年以上。我認為我們可能會這樣看待這個問題：目前美國和加拿大的經濟基本面依然強勁。國內生產毛額呈正成長，噸英哩數很高。我認為市場對23萬至26萬的預期正在趨於正常化，這感覺就像是明年之後事情發展的方向。不知道這只是經濟的暫時停滯，還是會重新加速成長，又或者會放緩一年以上。

Our next question comes from David Leiker with Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 David Leiker。

This is Erin Welcenbach on for David. So my question for you is just how firm does the backlog look from an industry perspective? And when would you expect quarter activity to pick up this year, if at all?

這裡是艾琳‧韋爾森巴赫替大衛報道。所以我的問題是，從產業角度來看，積壓訂單的情況究竟有多穩定？那麼，您預計今年的季度活動何時會回升？如果有回升的話？

Sure. Well, I think that we've already done a good job of looking into our backlog and working with our customers just to make sure that we had a real backlog, and that if there were cancellations, we took them. If there were different scheduling needs, we've addressed them. I can't speak for the total industry, but I feel like we feel like our backlog is in a reasonable shape right now.

當然。我認為我們已經很好地調查了積壓訂單，並與客戶合作，以確保我們有真實的積壓訂單，並且如果有取消訂單的情況，我們也接受了。如果有不同的日程安排需求，我們已經解決了。我不能代表整個產業發言，但我覺得我們目前的訂單積壓情況還算合理。

Okay. And then my second question is just maybe if you can provide some additional color on your thoughts for Europe and any regional variances you would expect there next year given your outlook for double-digit declines in sales?

好的。我的第二個問題是，鑑於您預計明年歐洲的銷售額將出現兩位數的下滑，您能否再詳細闡述一下您對歐洲市場的看法，以及您預期歐洲市場明年會出現哪些區域性差異？

One of the things we've seen in Europe has been that the U.K. has done quite nicely for us this year. So in spite of all the news around it, and maybe that will continue. We also are the leading brand of tractors throughout Europe and as we watch Europe really expand east, continue to expand east in development, our DAF premium products do a great job throughout all of Europe, and we have market leadership in countries like Poland and we're strong in Hungary and Romania and those kinds of countries.

我們在歐洲看到的一件事是，英國今年的表現相當不錯。儘管圍繞此事的新聞鋪天蓋地，而且這種情況或許還會持續下去。我們也是歐洲領先的拖拉機品牌，隨著歐洲向東擴張，我們的 DAF 高端產品在整個歐洲都表現出色，我們在波蘭等國家擁有市場領導地位，在匈牙利、羅馬尼亞等國家也實力雄厚。

So as the total market of Europe matures, DAF does very well, enables us to grow share there.

隨著歐洲整體市場的成熟，DAF 的表現非常出色，使我們能夠在那裡擴大市場份額。

Our next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

This is Ben Burud on for Jerry. Just wanted to spend a few more minutes on Europe. So the second quarter of production adjustments in a row it seems and it seems to be the main driver of deliveries only increasing 3% year-over-year in the quarter. I believe your guide 3 months ago was 5% to 7%. So can you just spend a little more time on what drove the softness there? If that's continuing? And if you guys like to flex production over there on a quarterly basis? Or if the second production adjustment what was more of a surprise? Any color there would be helpful.

我是本布魯德 (Ben Burud) 替傑瑞 (Jerry) 發言。只是想多花幾分鐘時間了解歐洲。這似乎是連續第二個季度進行生產調整，而且這似乎是導致本季交付量年增率僅 3% 的主要原因。我記得你們三個月前的指導價是 5% 到 7%。所以您能否再花點時間研究一下是什麼導致了那裡的柔軟度？如果這種情況持續下去呢？如果你們喜歡按季度在那邊展示產量呢？或者說，第二次生產調整更令人驚訝的是什麼？任何顏色都會有所幫助。

Sure. I think your comments are reasonably accurate as we dictate the adjustments to Europe to where a point where it matched the market demand. And we've seen that we've held on to our market share gains with our build rates, so we're sitting at like 16.4%, which is near historic highs for us at DAF in market share. So we think we have it balanced about right now. And Europe was probably a little sooner coming down than maybe we had thought it might be and that's where we made the necessary adjustments and it feels like we're sitting in the right levels.

當然。我認為你的評論相當準確，因為我們對歐洲市場進行了調整，使其與市場需求相符。我們看到，我們的生產速度保持了市場份額的成長，目前我們的市佔率約為 16.4%，這接近 DAF 的歷史最高市場份額。所以我們認為目前情況比較平衡。歐洲的經濟下滑速度可能比我們預想的要快一些，因此我們做出了必要的調整，現在感覺我們已經處於合適的水平。

Got it. And then can you give us an update on how you're thinking about dealer location growth next year for the TRP locations? Are you still thinking of adding 50 new locations per year? And any expected increase in Kenworth and Peterbilt dealers in 2020?

知道了。那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下您明年對TRP經銷商分行成長的規劃？你們仍然打算每年新增 50 個地點嗎？預計2020年肯沃斯和彼得比爾特經銷商數量會增加嗎？

Yes. We have -- I mean, I'll start by just saying we have the best dealer network in the industry. And I mean, spent a lot of time with them. They're fantastic business partners. We see significant investments from them in North America and in Europe. So it's one way to think about this is that they're constantly renewing their facilities and adding service-base and shop capability to make sure our customers maximize their uptime, and so we'll watch next year that they'll continue to make those investments into new facilities with lots of great plans around adding locations. And we'll see some location growth in North America. What I'd expect more in Europe is it will be the continuing development of replacement locations and improved service bay capability or more service bay capability. And to your point of TRP stores, we will be adding TRP stores in 2020 as well, probably much along the lines as we have in this year.

是的。我們擁有——我的意思是，首先我要說的是，我們擁有業內最好的經銷商網路。我的意思是，我和他們相處了很久。他們是非常棒的商業夥伴。我們看到他們在北美和歐洲進行了大量投資。所以，我們可以這樣理解：他們不斷更新設施，增加服務基地和門市能力，以確保我們的客戶最大限度地延長正常運作時間。因此，明年我們將關注他們是否會繼續投資建設新設施，並制定許多關於增加網點的宏偉計劃。我們也會看到北美地區的業務成長。我預計歐洲方面會繼續發展更換地點，並提高維修車間的能力，或增加維修車間的容量。至於您提到的 TRP 商店，我們將在 2020 年也增加 TRP 商店，可能和我們今年的做法差不多。

Our next question comes from Tim Thein with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的提姆·泰恩。

First question, just from a mix standpoint, just revenue per truck that call it 10% or almost 10% year-over-year growth. Was that just all the contribution from North America being a bigger part of the deliveries? Or is there a kind of an underlying content growth or mix story that's also contributing?

首先，從產品組合的角度來看，僅就每輛卡車的收入而言，年成長率約為 10% 或接近 10%。這是否僅僅是因為北美地區的貢獻在交付量中佔比更大？或者說，是否存在某種潛在的內容成長或組合策略也在發揮作用？

No. You got it about right. It's mostly contribution from North America.

不。你說的差不多對。大部分資金來自北美。

That's with pricing improvement, right?

那是指價格有所改善的情況，對吧？

Yes.

是的。

All right. All right. Okay. And then just back on the Financial Services and the pretax profits. In terms of the increase, I know that we have limited disclosure here in the release, but the increase in that interest and other line, how much of that is a change in terms of higher depreciation that will potentially be sustained going forward versus maybe impairments or losses unused that are presumably more onetime in nature? The spirit of the question is just, should we assume a kind of a similar run rate in terms of from a profitability perspective as the third quarter? Or where there's some kind of one-timers within that line?

好的。好的。好的。然後我們再回到金融服務和稅前利潤方面。關於成長方面，我知道我們在這份公告中披露的資訊有限，但是利息和其他方面的成長，其中有多少是由於未來可能持續的更高折舊而導致的，又有多少是由於未使用的減值或損失（這些損失可能是一次性的）導致的？問題的本質是，從獲利能力的角度來看，我們是否應該假設第二季的運行速度與第三季類似？或其中是否包含一些一次性參與者？

So as far as the continuing to profitability, we think the strong profits we have in the third quarter will continue going forward. And for the detail of your question, I'll let Michael want to address that one.

因此，就持續獲利而言，我們認為第三季強勁的獲利動能將會持續下去。至於你問題的細節，我會讓麥可來回答。

Yes. We did have some impairments that were taken and we also adjusted our depreciation to reflect expected future impairments. And so that run rate will continue going forward. And as Preston indicated, will be reflected at a similar pace in coming quarters.

是的。我們確實提列了一些減損準備，並且我們也調整了折舊以反映預期的未來減損。因此，這種運行速度將會持續下去。正如普雷斯頓所指出的那樣，這種情況將在接下來的幾個季度以類似的速度反映出來。

Our next question comes from the line of Ross Gilardi with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅斯·吉拉迪。

I'm just trying to understand gross margins in a more draconian scenario than what you're forecasting for next year. I mean, I think if you go back and gross margins ex R&D in more of a garden-variety downturn have been around 12% to 13%, but you've got to go back like 7 or 8 years to see it. I'm just wondering, how do you think gross margins look in the next downturn whenever it comes, in relation to that 12% to 13%, given the way the company has evolved over the last decade, particularly with the growth in the Parts business?

我只是想了解在比你預測的明年情況更嚴峻的情況下，毛利率會是多少。我的意思是，我認為如果你回顧一下，在比較普通的經濟衰退時期，扣除研發費用後的毛利率大約在 12% 到 13% 之間，但你必須追溯到 7 到 8 年前才能看到這一點。我只是想知道，考慮到公司過去十年的發展，特別是零件業務的成長，您認為下一次經濟衰退來臨時，毛利率相對於 12% 到 13% 的水平會如何變化？

I think one of the great strengths of PACCAR is that we are always looking at operational efficiency gains, not just in 1 year, but over the course of time. We're always thinking about cost control. So as we head into markets like the normalized market we're facing, we've already been aggressively thinking about cost control. I think that's what enabled us to deliver the solid gross margins we had this quarter and even the quarterly gross margins we predict for next quarter in 14% to 14.5%. So I think that we are always managing the business efficiently for the benefit of our customers and we think that 14% to 14.5% that we deliver next quarter will be pretty solid.

我認為 PACCAR 的一大優勢在於，我們始終著眼於營運效率的提升，不僅著眼於一年的效率提升，更著眼於長期的效率提升。我們始終都在考慮成本控制。因此，當我們進入像我們現在面臨的這種正常化市場時，我們已經在積極考慮成本控制。我認為正是這一點使我們能夠在本季度實現穩健的毛利率，甚至能夠實現我們預測的下個季度 14% 至 14.5% 的季度毛利率。所以我認為我們一直在有效率地管理業務，以造福我們的客戶，我們認為下個季度實現 14% 到 14.5% 的成長率將相當穩健。

No -- yes, I mean, I realize that. I wasn't asking about next quarter, and I'm not asking for you to forecast when the next trough is, I'm just saying when eventually it does come, what do you think your gross margins would look like with -- in comparison to what prior downturns look like? I mean, I imagine your -- it's been very difficult to stay in the 14% to 14.5% range if Class 8 build goes to sub-200,000 number.

不——是的，我的意思是，我明白這一點。我不是問下個季度的情況，也不是在問你預測下一個低谷何時到來，我只是想說，當低谷最終到來時，你認為你的毛利率會是什麼樣子——與之前的經濟衰退相比呢？我的意思是，我想你們——如果 8 級建築的數量低於 20 萬輛，那麼要保持在 14% 到 14.5% 的範圍內是非常困難的。

Well, that's kind of hypothetical to us just to think what it might go down to and how we might react in those circumstances, but you can imagine that we'll always be focused on cost control. And we have a long, long history of all different markets back through the recession of 2009 and we'd still continue with profitability. We'll continue to do a good job in those, even if those circumstances were to return, which we don't predict.

嗯，對我們來說，這只是假設，想想事情可能會發展到什麼程度，以及在這種情況下我們會如何應對，但你可以想像，我們將始終專注於成本控制。我們擁有悠久的歷史，涉足各種不同的市場，甚至包括 2009 年的經濟衰退，我們仍然能夠持續獲利。即使這種情況再次發生（我們預計不會發生），我們也會繼續在這些方面做好工作。

Okay. How quickly can you reduce SG&A as Class 8 production normalizes? And what would be the source of the savings? And just how should we think about SG&A into next year as we revert back to replacement level demand? And if we model it at 2.3% of sales or so for this year, does it stay at that ratio in 2020 as production normalizes? Or do we see it that the ratio move higher?

好的。隨著8類產品產量恢復正常，您能多快降低銷售、管理及行政費用？那麼，節省下來的錢來自哪裡呢？那麼，隨著需求恢復到替換水平，我們明年該如何看待銷售、管理及行政費用？如果我們假設今年的銷售額佔比約為 2.3%，那麼隨著生產恢復正常，2020 年這個比例還會維持不變嗎？還是我們看到這個比例上升了？

Yes. I think what we're always looking for in those -- in SG&A and in our spending is to make sure that we are developing the right products and services for our customers looking into the future. And so as we shared, we're thinking the level of spending for us on R&D and capital, our capital come down a little bit, R&D is roughly flat, and I think in SG&A, we will apply rigorous disciplines to make sure that the costs are appropriately controlled.

是的。我認為我們一直在尋找的是——在銷售、一般及行政費用和支出方面——確保我們為客戶開發出面向未來的正確產品和服務。正如我們之前所說，我們正在考慮研發和資本支出水平，我們的資本支出會略有下降，研發支出大致保持不變，我認為在銷售、一般及行政費用方面，我們將採取嚴格的措施，以確保成本得到適當的控制。

And is that just from flexing the workforce? Or what are the other -- is that the main source of savings when you get to that point?

這只是彈性調配勞動力的結果嗎？或者說，還有其他什麼——當你達到那個階段時，那是否是主要的儲蓄來源？

Workforce is one, contracts is another. Licensing agreements, work we do, those kinds of things, all get looked at. We really don't think of things in terms of a lot of fixed pricing.

勞動力是一個方面，合約是另一個方面。許可協議、我們所做的工作等等，所有這些都會被審查。我們真的不太會用固定價格來思考問題。

We go through our overhead budgeting process every year as a zero-based budgeting process and we leave you all necessary spending in detail, and make sure that we're keeping our organization as lean as possible.

我們每年都會按照零基預算流程進行間接費用預算，並詳細列出所有必要的支出，確保我們的組織盡可能保持精簡。

And then can you just remind us the percentage of your European deliveries that come from the U.K.? I seem to remember it's around 20%. Is that in the right ballpark? And can you remind us what portion of Leyland's capacity sold to the U.K. market versus the European Union? I mean, on that note, could you shift production out of the U.K. to DAF and the Netherlands to serve Europe if we did go through a hard Brexit?

那麼，您能否告知我們貴公司歐洲訂單中來自英國的百分比是多少？我記得大概是20%左右。這個範圍差不多嗎？請問利蘭汽車公司向英國市場和歐盟市場分別售出了多少產能？我的意思是，如果英國真的硬脫歐，你們能否將生產從英國轉移到 DAF 和荷蘭，以服務歐洲市場？

So as we think about the U.K., one of the beautiful things for us is we have great production capacity in the U.K. We also have it in Eindhoven and so we are able to flex depending on what Brexit might or might not be appropriately for the market, so we can build the trucks we need in the U.K. and we can build all the trucks, the CF excess we need for the continent we can build on the continent as well. So it gives us good flexibility. And Harrie, you were looking up the number or the percentage?

所以，當我們考慮英國市場時，對我們來說最有利的一點是，我們在英國擁有強大的生產能力。我們在埃因霍溫也有生產基地，因此我們可以根據英國脫歐可能對市場產生的影響進行靈活調整，這樣我們既可以在英國生產我們需要的卡車，也可以生產我們為歐洲大陸生產的所有卡車，包括我們為歐洲大陸生產的剩餘碳纖維卡車。所以它給了我們很大的彈性。哈里，你是在查數字還是百分比？

Yes. The U.K., typically, is between 15% and 20% of our...

是的。英國通常占我們總人口的15%到20%…

European.

歐洲的。

European production.

歐洲製造。

Okay. So most of the existing production, at least for a year like this, would just be -- would be for the U.K. market out of the U.K. factory?

好的。所以，至少在像今年這樣的年份裡，大部分現有產量都將──都將由英國工廠生產，供應英國市場？

Yes. That's -- we can use it for both and we have enough there to support the U.K. And we have enough capacity in Europe to support Europe.

是的。也就是說——我們可以將其用於這兩個方面，而且我們在英國的產能足夠，可以支持英國。同時，我們在歐洲的產能也足夠，可以支持歐洲。

And being the only truck manufacturer that has a factory in the U.K., that could give us a very nice advantage.

而且，作為唯一一家在英國設有工廠的卡車製造商，這可以為我們帶來非常好的優勢。

Our next question comes from Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的傑米庫克。

I guess one question. As you're thinking about the commentary that you made about decrementals of the 15% to 20% or so. Are there any variances or differences as we think about where the weakness is coming from? Are the decrementals dissimilar into U.S. and Europe? Or not so much anymore with being more vertically integrated in the U.S. now?

我想問一個問題。當你思考你之前對15%到20%左右的遞減幅度所做的評論。當我們思考弱點究竟來自哪裡時，是否有差異或不同之處？美國和歐洲的減量情況是否不同？或者說，隨著美國企業如今更加垂直整合，這種情況已經不那麼明顯了？

And then I guess my second question regards to -- relates to sort of price costs, obviously, pricing has been pretty strong for you guys this year. And the downturn that you guys are forecasting, do you think you could hold sort of price and that material cost could potentially be a tailwind for you?

那麼，我的第二個問題是關於價格成本的，顯然，你們今年的定價策略相當強勁。你們預測的經濟衰退，你們認為能否維持價格穩定，而原物料成本的下降可能會成為你們的利多因素？

Yes. I think it will be -- I think your second part of your question is quite possibly true, and we'll continue to manage price to the best of our ability in the market and we are always aggressively looking at our cost structure, and as you mentioned, that could be a bit of tailwind for us in terms of what happens next year as in 2019, suppliers are running at full capacity, some inefficiencies in their shifts, so maybe there's some upside in that.

是的。我認為——我認為你問題的第二部分很有可能是正確的，我們將繼續盡最大努力在市場上控制價格，並且我們一直在積極審視我們的成本結構，正如你提到的，這可能會對我們明年的發展起到一定的推動作用，因為2019年供應商的產能都已達到飽和，他們的輪班安排存在一些效率低下的問題，所以這或許會帶來一些好處。

And just the first part, difference U.S. versus Europe in terms of impact on margins?

僅就第一部分而言，美國和歐洲在利潤率影響上有何不同？

Yes. They're very similar.

是的。它們非常相似。

Very similar.

非常相似。

Our next question comes from Courtney Yakavonis with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Courtney Yakavonis。

I just wanted to go back to the clarification on the comments on your build rate being appropriate for the orders you have right now in the backlog for the first quarter. So is your assumption then that at the beginning of 2020 that we should return to that kind of replacement rate of 20,000 orders a month? Or is your current build rate kind of assuming that we remain at this sub-15,000 orders and the backlog can fill in the rest? And then also just wanted to make sure that the comment was -- that the September build rate is the right assumption, which is that going forward.

我只是想澄清一下關於你們的生產速度是否適合你們目前第一季積壓訂單的評論。那麼，你的假設是，到 2020 年初，我們應該恢復到每月 2 萬筆訂單的替換率嗎？或者說，你們目前的生產速度是基於訂單量保持在 15,000 以下，積壓訂單可以填補剩餘訂單的假設？然後我還想確認一下，這個評論是否正確——9 月的建設速度是一個正確的假設，也就是說，未來將保持這個速度。

Well, we've made adjustments in the first parts of October for our build rate, so this is coming at that. So we think we've got that set up right. When I think about backlog and build rates for next year, we still have quite a healthy backlog, and so there could be a little bit more time before there's a normalization to that quarter intake of 20,000 per month as you put the number out there.

嗯，我們在 10 月初對我們的生產速度進行了調整，所以這是在此背景下發生的。所以我們認為我們已經把一切都安排妥當了。當我考慮明年的積壓訂單和生產速度時，我們仍然有相當健康的積壓訂單，因此，在達到你所說的每月 20,000 個季度訂單的正常水平之前，可能還需要一些時間。

But orders are definitely starting to pick up. It's a very normal part of the cycle to have, late summer will be quiet, and then as people are putting their capital budgets into place, then to see the fourth quarter be a time of ordering, and we're seeing that right now.

但訂單量確實開始回升了。這是周期中非常正常的現象，夏末會比較平靜，然後隨著人們制定資本預算，第四季度就會成為訂購旺季，而我們現在就看到了這種情況。

So whether it's going to be exactly at the level this month or it will take a month or 2 to normalize out, it should normalize out.

所以，不管這個月是否會正好達到目前的水平，還是需要一兩個月的時間才能恢復正常，最終都應該會恢復正常。

Got you. But it sounds like before the beginning of the year, you do expect that return. And then just on CapEx and R&D, you gave us guidance for 2020 and I think there's a bit of a step down in CapEx versus '19, but still an elevated level relative to what's historically seen out of you guys. So is that kind of the right run rate that we should be thinking about the investments that your -- or that the business kind of needs at this point? Or are a lot of those onetime in nature?

抓到你了。但聽起來，在年初之前，你確實預期會有這筆回報。關於資本支出和研發，您給出了 2020 年的指導意見，我認為資本支出比 2019 年有所下降，但相對於你們以往的水平而言，仍然處於較高水平。那麼，這種發展速度是否合理，值得我們考慮貴公司或貴公司目前所需的投資呢？或者說，其中很多都是一次性的？

And then kind of same question on R&D, which is expecting to pick up and especially in light of concerns about decrementals next year. Are there any buckets in R&D that potentially can be factored as well?

然後，研發方面也存在類似的問題，預計研發將會回升，尤其是在考慮到明年可能會出現減產的情況下。研發中還有哪些環節可能需要納入考量？

Sure. For both of them as far as whether they're one time or continuous run rates, what we do is we always look at the portfolio of projects and opportunities that are going to bring value and we invest in those. We build the business for the long-haul, don't think about the quarterly cycle as much as we do, is making the right level of investments. And we have -- that's how we've arrived at the number. And the guidance number is $625 million to $675 million in CapEx, and the same approaches on R&D, which is a lot of really good projects out there right now that have great ROIs for our customers.

當然。對於這兩種情況，無論是一次性投資還是持續性投資，我們的做法是始終專注於能夠帶來價值的項目和機會組合，並對這些項目和機會進行投資。我們著眼於長遠發展，不太關注季度週期，而是注重適當的投資。我們就是這樣得出這個數字的。資本支出指導數字為 6.25 億美元至 6.75 億美元，研發方面也採取同樣的策略，目前有很多非常好的項目，可以為我們的客戶帶來巨大的投資回報率。

And so we're looking at those and always evaluating whether they should be done, and whether they're going to bring the right value in. And the portfolio we have is a fantastic portfolio, both for factory improvements. One of the ones we've mentioned is the Chillicothe new paint facility, which will improve efficiencies and quality, just as an example. And as we look at the R&D spending kinds of projects on powertrains, and we mentioned electric vehicles and autonomous vehicles and more aerodynamic truck models improvements, all of those are things that we look at and say, "Hey, if we can do this, and it's going to make our already best-in-class trucks even better, then we're going to do them."

因此，我們一直在關注這些事項，並評估它們是否應該實施，以及它們是否會帶來應有的價值。我們擁有的產品組合非常出色，無論是用於工廠改進還是其他方面。我們提到的其中一個例子是奇利科西的新噴漆廠，它將提高效率和品質。當我們審視研發支出項目，例如動力總成、電動車、自動駕駛汽車以及空氣動力學性能更佳的卡車車型改進等，所有這些都是我們關注並會說「嘿，如果我們能做到這一點，並且它能讓我們已經一流的卡車變得更好，那麼我們就會去做」的事情。

Got you. And then just lastly, I think last quarter you called out some customer mix headwinds. Obviously, we saw an improvement in margins. This quarter, part of that was just offerings from the headwinds from last quarter, but were there any customer mix changes this quarter that we should be thinking about kind of for the remainder of the year?

抓到你了。最後，我想上個季度您也提到了一些客戶結構方面的不利因素。很明顯，利潤率有所提高。本季度，部分原因是上季度的不利因素，但本季客戶結構是否有任何變化，值得我們在今年剩餘時間考慮？

Yes. We think we already kind of talked about North America being a positive for us in the quarter, and I think that's really the only minor thing that was -- I would say, was a contributor. But overall, it's good pricing, good cost control and a stronger North America mix.

是的。我們認為我們已經討論過北美在本季度對我們有利，我認為這真的是唯一一個——應該說，有所貢獻的——小因素。但整體而言，定價合理，成本控製到位，北美市場產品組合也更強勁。

Our next question comes from Adam Uhlman with Cleveland Research.

下一個問題來自克里夫蘭研究公司的亞當·烏爾曼。

I wanted to start with a clarification of the fourth quarter production being down 6% to 8% sequentially. Could you break that out between your plants for North America and Europe?

我想先澄清一下第四季產量較上季下降 6% 至 8% 的情況。您能否將北美和歐洲的工廠分開列出來？

So I think they're fairly comparable without running exact numbers. They're both roughly in the same ranges in the quarterly. Look at how they moved about high single digits in North America and it was a series of smaller steps through Europe that did the same thing.

所以我覺得，即使不進行精確的數值計算，它們也相當具有可比性。它們的季度數據大致處於同一範圍內。看看他們在北美是如何以接近兩位數的幅度增長的，而他們在歐洲也是一步一步地朝著同樣的方向發展。

Okay. Got you. And then I'm wondering what your view is on medium duty truck markets next year in North America. And then also your thoughts on Europe as well.

好的。抓到你了。那麼，我想知道您對明年北美中型卡車市場的看法是什麼。還有，也請談談您對歐洲的看法。

So for the medium duty market in North America, I think we're seeing it's right around 100,000 in North America and right around 50,000 in Europe for next year. So comparable numbers for this year.

因此，就北美中型卡車市場而言，我認為明年北美地區的銷量約為 10 萬輛，歐洲地區的銷量約為 5 萬輛。因此，今年的數據與此類似。

Okay. I got you. And then just back to Europe, I'm wondering if you would be willing to share with us the magnitude of the order declines that you did see in that region. And do you get the sense that order rates are bottoming out now if we start to see a leveling out of that pace of decline? Or is that maybe still too early?

好的。我接到你了。然後回到歐洲，我想知道您是否願意與我們分享您在該地區看到的訂單下降幅度。如果訂單量下降的速度開始趨於平穩，您是否感覺到訂單量已經觸底？或者現在說這些還太早？

What we're always trying to look at is what's going on with the cycle, and what's going on with the timing of the calendar year, and in fact, of recent we've seen improving order intake in Europe, actually, that's matching up to our build. So that's been a nice balancing point. And hopefully that will be what continues.

我們一直在觀察週期的變化情況，以及日曆年的時間安排，事實上，最近我們看到歐洲的訂單量有所增加，這與我們的生產情況相符。所以這算是一個不錯的平衡點。希望這種情況能夠持續下去。

Is there any particular region or part of the continent that's showing that improvement?

是否有某個特定地區或大陸上的某個部分呈現出這種改善趨勢？

Well, I got to believe that that's something to do with providing great trucks to our customers. And I think that really is a big part of it at the end of the day, because I think that we've been able to get to our record market shares in Europe and hold on to that share because people are experiencing our fantastic trucks and saying they want some more of those.

嗯，我相信這和我們為客戶提供優質卡車有關。我認為這才是最終成功的關鍵所在，因為我認為我們能夠在歐洲取得創紀錄的市場份額並保持這一份額，是因為人們體驗到了我們出色的卡車，並表示他們想要更多這樣的卡車。

Our next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

I was impressed with the Parts outlook for next year. Can you give us a little more comfort on your visibility to project that kind of Parts growth for next year? I know you have some help from the aging of the engines hitting a sweet spot, but can you help us get a little more comfort with that stronger growth?

我對明年零件產業的前景感到滿意。您能否進一步說明一下，您認為明年零件業務的成長前景如何？我知道引擎老化達到最佳狀態對你們有所幫助，但你們能否幫助我們更好地應對這種強勁的成長？

Yes. Sure. I think that strong growth is a result of, as you said, the engines, it's also this investment in TRP that we're doing. Our team there does a fantastic job in e-commerce and reaching out to our customers through new ways that are meeting their needs, so we're able to just kind of keep taking more and more of the market. These investments and our PDCs that we've mentioned both in Ponta Grossa in Brazil and in Las Vegas, allows us to get parts to the customers more quickly in those regions, which makes us a more desirable provider. And really, frankly, in partnership with our dealerships who are fully committed to growing their Parts business because it's good for them, good for customers and good for us. It's one of those real opportunities for win, win, win.

是的。當然。我認為強勁的成長正如你所說，是引擎帶來的結果，也是我們對TRP進行投資的結果。我們團隊在電子商務方面做得非常出色，他們透過新的方式與客戶溝通，滿足他們的需求，因此我們能夠不斷擴大市場份額。這些投資以及我們在巴西蓬塔格羅薩和拉斯維加斯的PDC（產品交付中心）使我們能夠更快地將零件交付給這些地區的客戶，這使我們成為更受歡迎的供應商。坦白說，我們與經銷商建立了合作夥伴關係，他們全力以赴發展零件業務，因為這對他們有好處，對客戶有好處，對我們也有好處。這是一個真正的三贏機會。

Are there any metrics of any kind though that you -- of a backlog of some kind or some parts -- percent of the Parts business that has some sort of annual contracts?

有沒有什麼指標可以衡量某種積壓訂單或零件訂單，或者零件業務中簽訂了某種年度合約的百分比？

Yes. Parts don't really work off that kind of a long backlog. It's much more of a...

是的。零件部門無法處理這麼長的積壓訂單。它更像是…

I know. I'm not worried about that. But just anything you're looking at, that might give us some more comfort on the number?

我知道。我並不擔心。但你所看到的任何東西，或許都能讓我們對這個數字更有把握？

Well, I think the comfort should come from the historically strong performance and then the reasons that we just talked about, which are just a lot of great products, a growing population of PACCAR products in Europe and North America over the past several years, and that has also contributed to that growth and will continue to contribute to that growth. And some strong markets that we have a large park of trucks out there.

我認為，這種信心應該來自於公司歷史上強勁的業績，以及我們剛才討論的原因，即眾多優秀的產品，以及過去幾年中 PACCAR 產品在歐洲和北美不斷增長的市場份額，這些都促進了公司的增長，並將繼續促進公司的增長。在一些強勁的市場，我們有大量的卡車在那裡運作。

And lastly, the European business, the leasing of trucks. Can you help us a little bit? You said there was less of it in this quarter. Sort of what are you seeing on that front for the mix going into next year?

最後，還有歐洲業務，即卡車租賃。你能幫我們一個小忙嗎？你說過這季度這種情況比較少。您認為明年這方面的市場格局會如何改變？

Missed the first part of that question on this side. Can you say it again, David?

這邊的問題第一部分我沒答對。大衛，你能再說一次嗎？

For the European business, the mix of businesses where there's some buyback guarantees and the leasing of a business, how do you represent to the revenues? It impacted the price per unit delivery this quarter. Can you just help us, take us through your thoughts on '20 on the mix for that into next year?

對於歐洲業務而言，在有回購擔保和租賃業務的情況下，如何體現業務組合的收入？這影響了本季的單位交付價格。您能否幫我們談談您對2020年以及明年發展趨勢的看法？

I think it's probably going to run a lot like this '19 has gone.

我認為今年的情況可能會和 2019 年差不多。

They're very similar.

它們非常相似。

Those adjustments were more '19 to '18 than they were looking forward. So we're at a pretty stable rate of optional and fixed rate GRVs.

這些調整更多的是針對 2019 年到 2018 年的過渡，而不是著眼於未來。因此，可選和固定利率 GRV 的比率相當穩定。

Our next question comes from Jeff Kauffman from Loop Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的 Jeff Kauffman。

A lot of my questions have been answered. I wanted to focus a little bit on tax rate if that's okay. It looks like the tax rate outlook had come down a little bit and maybe I'm not thinking about it right. I would've thought more North American exposure would have driven it higher. Am I wrong? Does it drive it lower? And is that kind of a lower level of taxes that we should be thinking about for the rest of this year?

我的很多疑問都得到了解答。如果可以的話，我想重點談談稅率。看來稅率預期有下降，也許是我理解錯了。我原以為北美市場的曝光度提高會讓股價更高。我錯了嗎？它會降低電壓嗎？那麼，今年剩餘時間裡，我們是否應該考慮採取這種較低的稅收水準？

The tax rate, normally, you should think about is a 23% level. We benefited in Q3 from higher R&D credits than originally anticipated. So those are our final returns.

通常情況下，你應該考慮的稅率是 23%。第三季度，我們獲得了比預期更高的研發補貼。以上就是我們最終的統計結果。

Okay. So should I carry that through to the end of the year? Or is it more of a third quarter thing?

好的。那我應該把這個計劃撐到年底嗎？或者說，這更像是第三季才會出現的情況？

Well, I think you should think in terms of 23% for Q4 and for 2020.

我認為你應該把第四季和 2020 年的成長目標設定為 23%。

Okay. And as I look to -- okay, you said for 2020.

好的。展望未來－好的，你說的是2020年。

Our next question comes from Joe O'Dea with Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Joe O'Dea。

In U.S. and Canada, it looked like Class 6, 7 growth was pretty healthy in the quarter and better than the market. And so curious whether that's just sort of time...

在美國和加拿大，6 年級、7 年級學生本季的成長看起來相當健康，並且優於市場平均水準。所以很好奇，這是否只是時間的問題…

(technical difficulty)

（技術難題）

Joe are you still there?

喬，你還在嗎？

Lindsey, are you there?

琳賽，你在嗎？

Yes. I am showing that Joe is still connected.

是的。我證明喬仍然在線。

Okay.

好的。

Well, I guess, we'll just -- we aren't hearing from you, we'll just try to extrapolate your question a little bit and see...

好吧，我想，我們只能——我們沒收到您的回复，那就試著稍微推斷一下您的問題，看看…

Or we could move on and maybe Joe can rejoin.

或者我們可以繼續前進，也許喬可以重新加入。

Our next question comes from Neil Frohnapple with Buckingham Research.

下一個問題來自白金漢研究公司的尼爾‧弗羅納普爾。

I believe PACCAR's market share historically tends to be countercyclical. I mean is there any reason to think that your market share wouldn't be higher in 2020 and your -- the production wouldn't outperform the industry? I guess I'm just asking the production question a little differently.

我認為，從歷史數據來看，PACCAR的市佔率往往具有反週期性。我的意思是，有什麼理由認為你們2020年的市佔率不會更高，產量不會超過產業平均？我想我只是換個角度問生產方面的問題。

Sure. I think the trucks are performing exceptionally well in the field. I think our customers are experiencing that we're delivering the best fuel economy and the lowest operating costs of any brands. So we do think that should drive our market share up, and looking forward to that happening, and working every day to make sure that does happen.

當然。我認為這些卡車在實際使用上表現非常出色。我認為我們的客戶已經體驗到，我們提供的燃油經濟性和營運成本在所有品牌中都是最低的。所以我們認為這應該會提升我們的市場份額，我們期待這種情況發生，並且每天都在努力確保這種情況發生。

Okay. Great. And then just going back to the parts sales growth outlook for next year, 4% to 6%, I'm presuming that the lower outlook, I guess, relative to the 8% Parts segment CAGR that you talked about at the Investor Day is more due to just fleets pulling back on spending and purchasing, obviously, a lot less trucks next year. So I guess at what point do you think that growth rate can start to reaccelerate in order for you guys to hit those long-term targets?

好的。偉大的。再回到明年零件銷售成長預期，4%到6%，我估計，相對於您在投資者日上提到的零件部門8%的複合年增長率，較低的預期更多是由於車隊減少了支出和採購，顯然，明年卡車數量會少得多。所以我想問的是，你們認為成長速度要到什麼時候才能重新加速，才能達成那些長期目標？

Yes. I think that the 4% to 6% number is a nice steady growth rate in the market that's declining as depending on what happens. And again, I think that there's a lot of things working right to it as far as when it'll come back up, we'll keep our eyes on that and watching for every opportunity to grow it.

是的。我認為，在市場下滑的情況下，4%到6%是一個不錯的穩定成長率，具體情況還要視市場發展而定。而且，我認為有很多因素都在朝著好的方向發展，至於它何時會恢復，我們會密切關注，並尋找每一個發展它的機會。

Our next question comes from Robert Salmon with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Robert Salmon。

A little clarification on the used truck outlook. It sounded like in the third quarter it was down 10% to 15%. Is that what you guys are contemplating looking out? Or are you contemplating kind of a similar absolute level of used truck sales, from a price perspective?

關於二手卡車市場前景，這裡做一些說明。聽起來第三季下降了 10% 到 15%。你們考慮的是要防範這種情況嗎？或者，您是否正在考慮從價格角度來看，二手卡車的銷售量也達到類似的絕對水準？

Yes. I think that down amount that we've seen maybe that will continue. It's obviously difficult to forecast entirely where it'll stay settled out too, but...

是的。我認為我們目前看到的下跌幅度可能會持續下去。顯然，很難完全預測最終的穩定局面，但是…

It could stay around for the next couple of quarters.

它可能會在接下來的幾個季度繼續保持這種狀態。

I think the thing we're looking at is just that there is still a really healthy demand out there for day cabs, specifically, and although values are down, we have the advantage of PACCAR of having a mix of trucks. We're not very uniform in our truck distribution, a lot of day cabs, a lot of pick-up and delivery, a lot of vocational trucks and some sleeper trucks as well. So I think our ability to move those trucks should at least perform to the market and probably outperform, and again, we'll keep getting the premium for those trucks.

我認為我們現在看到的是，目前市場上對日間駕駛室卡車的需求仍然非常旺盛，儘管價格有所下降，但我們PACCAR的優勢在於擁有各種類型的卡車。我們的卡車分佈較不統一，有許多日間駕駛室卡車、很多取貨和送貨卡車、很多專用卡車，還有一些臥舖卡車。所以我認為我們運輸這些卡車的能力至少應該達到市場水平，而且可能會超過市場水平，同樣，我們也會繼續獲得這些卡車的溢價。

That's helpful. And as I look at the gross margin outlook for the fourth quarter, can you give an update on what the price cost spread was in the third quarter? And then looking out to the fourth quarter, if there are any sort of different assumptions you have built in there, just to get a sense of what sort of decrementals you guys are kind of thinking about in production versus a different price cost mix?

那很有幫助。在展望第四季毛利率前景時，您能否提供一下第三季的價格成本差額情況？展望第四季度，你們是否做了一些不同的假設？我想了解一下，在不同的定價成本組合下，你們在生產方面考慮了哪些方面的遞減？

So in the third quarter, we saw price of roughly 3% and cost of 1.5. And I think in the fourth quarter, I think there will be more pricing pressure, but there could be some opportunity on cost that we're evaluating right now.

因此，在第三季度，我們看到價格上漲了約 3%，成本上漲了 1.5%。我認為第四季價格壓力會更大，但成本方面可能存在一些機會，我們目前正在評估這些機會。

And would you expect the cost opportunity to kind of continue? Should it step up in 2020 relative to your experience in the fourth quarter? Or were you kind of thinking about something similar?

你認為這種成本優勢會持續下去嗎？與第四季的經驗相比，2020 年的情況是否有所改善？還是你當時也在考慮類似的事情？

I think it might be hard to guess out to what it's going to be in 2020 right now.

我覺得現在很難預測2020年會是什麼樣子。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Shawn Kim with Gabelli Funds.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Gabelli Funds 的 Shawn Kim。

I just wanted to follow up on the Parts business. I think at your Investor Day, you mentioned you guys expect to have 450,000 MX engines in service by 2024, but I guess, just said another way, I mean, is that the right way to look about your total addressable market for the Parts business in the mid-2020s? So I think the active U.S. Class 8 population is about 2.2 million trucks. I guess out of that 2.2 million figure, what's the opportunity for you guys long-term regarding servicing those trucks on the road?

我只是想跟進一下零件業務的情況。我想在你們的投資者日上，你們提到預計到 2024 年將有 45 萬台 MX 發動機投入使用，但我想，換句話說，我的意思是，在 2020 年代中期，這種看待你們零部件業務潛在市場規模的方式是否正確？所以我認為美國現役的 8 級卡車數量約為 220 萬輛。我想，在這 220 萬這個數字中，你們在長期為這些在路上行駛的卡車提供服務方面有什麼機會呢？

So I think about it in a couple of different ways. One is the, you mentioned, is the growing MX parts that's out there and we did add capacity to our Columbus Engine plant. And it increased our build rates of MX engines. In fact, in second -- first half, anywhere 39% MX and in the third quarter, we were at 45%. So we saw some growth there and you see some continued upside for MX engines as people get to realize the benefits of that great engine.

所以我從幾個不同的角度來思考這個問題。一是如你所提到的，市場上 MX 零件的需求不斷增長，我們確實增加了哥倫布引擎工廠的產能。它提高了我們MX引擎的生產速度。事實上，在第二季（上半年），墨西哥的成長率為 39%，而第三季則達到了 45%。所以我們看到這方面有所成長，而且隨著人們逐漸意識到這款優秀引擎的優勢，MX 引擎還有很大的上漲空間。

And then I think it's not just about our park of vehicles for Kenworth, and Peterbilt, and DAF or the engine. I think our team did a great job of also capturing into the All Makes business with the TRP brands, where 50% of those customers are new to PACCAR, which creates a great opportunity for growth for us as well. And I think we're always looking at opportunities to grow not just the Parts business itself, but provide increased levels of service for our customers and that comes through higher degrees of connectivity of the trucks where we understand better what's going on. So all of those point to opportunities to keep growing the Parts business over time.

而且我認為這不僅僅是關於我們擁有的 Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 車輛，也不僅僅關乎引擎。我認為我們的團隊在拓展全品牌業務方面做得非常出色，TRP 品牌在其中佔據了重要地位，其中 50% 的客戶是 PACCAR 的新客戶，這也為我們創造了巨大的成長機會。我認為我們一直在尋找發展機會，不僅是發展零件業務本身，還要為客戶提供更高水準的服務，而這需要卡車之間更高程度的連接，這樣我們才能更好地了解卡車的運作狀況。因此，所有這些都表明，隨著時間的推移，零件業務有機會持續成長。

There are no other questions in queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

目前沒有其他問題在排隊。公司還有其他補充說明嗎？

Yes. We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call, and thank you, operator.

是的。感謝各位參與通話，也謝謝接線生。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，PACCAR的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。