帕卡 (PCAR) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time.

早安，歡迎參加帕卡公司2019年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）本次電話會議正在錄音，如有任何異議，請立即掛起。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我謹介紹帕卡公司投資者關係總監肯‧黑斯廷斯先生。黑斯廷斯先生，請開始。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller.

早安.歡迎各位透過電話和網路直播收聽節目的朋友們。我是PACCAR投資者關係總監肯‧黑斯廷斯。今天早上與我一同出席的還有執行長普雷斯頓·費特、總裁兼首席財務官哈里·希珀斯以及高級副總裁兼財務總監邁克爾·巴克利。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode.

與以往的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有參與電話會議的媒體成員以只聽模式參與。

Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the Investor Relations page of paccar.com.

今天發布的某些資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的總體經濟和競爭狀況。更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及paccar.com網站的投資者關係頁面。

I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

現在我來介紹普雷斯頓費特。

Good morning. Harrie Schippers and I will update you on our excellent fourth quarter and record full year 2019 results and business highlights.

早安.我和哈里·希珀斯將向大家匯報我們2019年第四季優異的業績以及創紀錄的全年業績和業務亮點。

Thanks to PACCAR's outstanding employees around the world, 2019 was the best year in the company's 114-year history. PACCAR achieved record revenues of $25.6 billion and record net income of $2.39 billion, a 9.3% after-tax return on revenues. PACCAR's strong financial performance in 2019 benefited from PACCAR Parts' record pretax profits of $831 million and PACCAR Financial Services' pretax profits of $299 million.

得益於PACCAR全球員工的卓越貢獻，2019年成為本公司114年歷史上業績最佳的一年。 PACCAR實現了創紀錄的256億美元營收和23.9億美元淨利潤，稅後營收回報率高達9.3%。 PACCAR在2019年的強勁財務表現主要得益於PACCAR零件業務創紀錄的8.31億美元稅前利潤和PACCAR金融服務業務創紀錄的2.99億美元稅前利潤。

PACCAR has achieved 81 consecutive years of net income and a total shareholder return in 2019 of 45%. The company has paid a dividend every year since 1941. In 2019, PACCAR declared dividends of $3.58 per share, a 16% increase over 2018. Total dividends declared were a record $1.24 billion. PACCAR's fourth quarter revenues were $6.1 billion and fourth quarter net income was $531 million.

帕卡集團已連續81年實現淨盈利，2019年股東總回報率達45%。該公司自1941年以來每年都會派發股息。 2019年，帕卡集團宣布每股股利3.58美元，較2018年成長16%。派息總額創歷史新高，達12.4億美元。帕卡集團第四季營收為61億美元，淨利為5.31億美元。

PACCAR delivered 45,700 trucks during the fourth quarter compared to 49,300 in the third quarter. There were fewer build days and lower build rates in North America compared to the third quarter. Build rate in Europe remains steady.

PACCAR第四季交付了45,700輛卡車，低於第三季的49,300輛。與第三季相比，北美地區的生產天數和生產速度均有所下降。歐洲地區的生產速度則保持穩定。

The U.S. economy performed well in 2019, which contributed to a strong truck market. In 2019, U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck retail sales were 309,000 units, the second highest truck sales in history. During 2019, Kenworth and Peterbilt combined market share increased to 30% compared to 29.4% in the prior year. In 2020, the U.S. economy is expected to grow by about 2%. The new USMCA and China Phase 1 trade agreements could provide upside in the economy and are good for PACCAR. We estimate the 2020 U.S. and Canada Class 8 truck market to be in a range of 230,000 to 260,000 vehicles.

2019年美國經濟表現良好，帶動了卡車市場的強勁成長。 2019年，美國和加拿大8級卡車零售銷售量達30.9萬輛，創史上第二高紀錄。 2019年，肯沃斯（Kenworth）和彼得比爾特（Peterbilt）兩大品牌的市佔率合計成長至30%，高於上年的29.4%。預計2020年美國經濟成長率約為2%。新的美墨加協定（USMCA）和中美第一階段貿易協定可望提振經濟，這對帕卡集團（PACCAR）而言無疑是利好消息。我們預計2020年美國和加拿大8級卡車市場規模將在23萬至26萬輛之間。

European above 16-tonne truck registrations were 320,000 vehicles in 2019, reflecting continued robust customer demand after several years of steady economic growth. DAF delivered a strong 16.2% market share. In 2020, the European economies are projected to continue growing, and we expect another excellent truck market with above 16-tonne registrations in a range of 260,000 to 290,000 vehicles.

2019年，歐洲16噸以上卡車註冊量為32萬輛，反映出在經歷了數年穩定的經濟成長後，客戶需求依然強勁。 DAF卡車佔據了16.2%的市場。預計2020年歐洲經濟將持續成長，我們預計16噸以上卡車市場將保持良好勢頭，註冊量將在26萬至29萬輛之間。

I would like to recognize PACCAR's high-performing Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF dealers, who are the best in the industry and important contributors to our success.

我要表揚 PACCAR 旗下業績卓越的 Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 經銷商，他們是業界最優秀的經銷商，也是我們成功的重要貢獻者。

Truck and parts gross margins were 14.4% in the fourth quarter. Truck pricing increased during the quarter, more than offsetting costs. In the first quarter, we expect deliveries to be 5% to 7% lower than the fourth quarter due to normalized markets and build rates in North America. First quarter truck and parts gross margins are estimated to be around 14%. PACCAR continues to take a rigorous approach to controlling costs throughout the business cycle and delivers industry-leading operating margins.

第四季卡車及零件毛利率為14.4%。本季卡車價格上漲，漲幅超過成本。由於北美市場和生產力恢復正常，我們預計第一季交付量將比第四季下降5%至7%。第一季卡車及零件毛利率預計約為14%。 PACCAR始終堅持嚴格的成本控制策略，貫穿整個業務週期，並維持著領先業界的營運利潤率。

Other 2019 accomplishments included: PACCAR delivering a record 199,000 trucks worldwide; Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF expanding their range of battery-electric, hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell trucks in field testing with customers; and South American deliveries increasing by 60%.

2019 年的其他成就包括：PACCAR 向全球交付了創紀錄的 199,000 輛卡車；Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 擴大了其電池電動、混合動力和氫燃料電池卡車的範圍，並與客戶進行實地測試；南美洲的交付量增加了 60%。

The company's focus on sustainable business practices were recognized by the environmental reporting firm, CDP. For the second consecutive year, PACCAR achieved an A rating, which puts us in the top 2% of more than 8,000 companies which report to CDP. PACCAR is one of only 35 companies in the United States to earn the A rating. In addition, we're proud that Peterbilt, Kenworth and PACCAR Parts were recognized as top workplaces for women by the organization Women In Trucking.

公司對永續商業實踐的重視獲得了環境報告機構CDP的認可。 PACCAR連續第二年獲得A級評級，躋身CDP報告的8,000多家公司中的前2%。 PACCAR是美國僅有的35家獲得A級評級的公司之一。此外，我們很自豪地宣布，Peterbilt、Kenworth和PACCAR Parts被「卡車運輸女性協會」（Women In Trucking）評為女性最佳工作場所。

Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial Services and PACCAR's investments in future growth.

哈里希珀斯將介紹 PACCAR 零件、PACCAR 金融服務以及 PACCAR 對未來成長的投資的最新情況。

Thanks, Preston.

謝謝你，普雷斯頓。

In 2019, PACCAR Parts generated record annual revenues of more than $4 billion and record annual pretax profit of $831 million. Annual parts revenue grew 5% and profit grew 8% compared to 2018. Parts' fourth quarter revenues were $994 million and quarterly pretax profit was a strong $205 million.

2019年，PACCAR零件業務創下年度營收超過40億美元的歷史新高，年度稅前利潤也達到創紀錄的8.31億美元。與2018年相比，零件業務的年度營收成長5%，利潤成長8%。零件業務第四季營收為9.94億美元，季度稅前利潤高達2.05億美元。

PACCAR has steadily increased its truck and engine market share over the years, resulting in a greater number of PACCAR trucks and engines in operation. At the same time, PACCAR has consistently expanded its network of parts distribution centers such as the ones opening this year in Las Vegas, Nevada and Ponta Grossa, Brazil.

多年來，PACCAR的卡車和引擎市場份額穩步增長，PACCAR卡車和發動機的在用數量也隨之增加。同時，PACCAR持續拓展其零件分銷中心網絡，例如今年在內華達州拉斯維加斯和巴西蓬塔格羅薩開設的新分銷中心。

Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF dealers have made large investments to increase their service capacity. The growing part of PACCAR trucks and powertrains and the enhanced parts distribution and service network drive future long-term growth. In 2020, we estimate parts sales to grow by 4% to 6%.

肯沃斯、彼得比爾特和達夫的經銷商已投入大量資金提升服務能力。帕卡卡車和動力總成業務的成長，以及零件分銷和服務網路的完善，將推動未來的長期成長。我們預計2020年零件銷售額將成長4%至6%。

PACCAR Financial Services achieved 2019 records in annual revenues of $1.48 billion, new business volume of $5.6 billion and portfolio assets of $16.1 billion. The portfolio continues to perform well with low past dues and low credit losses. Fourth quarter pretax income was $68 million, the same as in the third quarter. PACCAR Parts and PACCAR Financial Services' profit contributions enhance PACCAR's financial results through all phases of the business cycle.

PACCAR金融服務公司2019年創下多項紀錄，年收入達14.8億美元，新業務額達56億美元，投資組合資產達161億美元。此投資組合表現持續良好，逾期率和信貸損失率均較低。第四季稅前利潤為6800萬美元，與第三季持平。 PACCAR零件業務和PACCAR金融服務公司的利潤貢獻在商業週期的各個階段均提升了PACCAR的財務表現。

I'm pleased to share that in 2019 PACCAR was recognized for its product and manufacturing innovations. DAF earned Truck of the Year awards in the U.K., Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia, and the Green Truck Logistics Solution award in Germany. Kenworth Chillicothe and Peterbilt Denton each earned a prestigious 2019 Manufacturing Leadership Award from the National Association of Manufacturers.

我很高興地宣布，2019年PACCAR憑藉其產品和製造創新獲得了認可。 DAF榮獲英國、波蘭、捷克和斯洛伐克的「年度卡車」獎，以及德國的「綠色卡車物流解決方案」獎。 Kenworth Chillicothe和Peterbilt Denton分別榮獲美國國家製造商協會頒發的2019年度「製造領導獎」。

At the CES technology show in Las Vegas earlier this month, PACCAR showcased a Level 4 autonomous vehicle and 2 battery-electric trucks. We had a terrific turnout of people interested in PACCAR technology and the opportunity to see the trucks firsthand. Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF have each announced that they will begin producing alternative powertrain trucks in the next 12 to 18 months. PACCAR is a leader in all powertrain technologies that drive our industry, including diesel, battery, hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell.

本月初在拉斯維加斯舉行的CES消費電子展上，PACCAR展示了一款L4級自動駕駛汽車和兩款純電動卡車。許多對PACCAR技術感興趣並有機會親眼目睹這些卡車的觀眾到場熱烈。肯沃斯、彼得比爾特和達夫都已宣布將在未來12至18個月內開始生產替代動力卡車。 PACCAR是驅動我們行業的所有動力系統技術的領導者，包括柴油、電池、混合動力和氫燃料電池。

PACCAR invested a record $744 million in capital and $327 million in R&D expenses last year. In 2020, we're planning capital investments in the range of $625 million to $675 million and R&D expenses of $310 million to $340 million. These capital and R&D projects will develop the next generation of fuel-efficient vehicles and enhance the company's manufacturing and parts distribution facilities.

去年，帕卡集團（PACCAR）的資本投入創紀錄地達到7.44億美元，研發支出為3.27億美元。 2020年，我們計畫的資本投資在6.25億美元至6.75億美元之間，研發支出在3.1億美元至3.4億美元之間。這些資本和研發項目將用於開發下一代節能型汽車，並提升公司的製造和零件分銷能力。

Thank you. We'd be pleased to answer your questions.

謝謝。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Tim Thein with Citigroup.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自花旗集團的提姆泰恩。

Preston, maybe the first one just on the guidance here for the first quarter. I'm looking at build rates at an industry level, at least projected build plans for North America calling for a modest, a small sequential step-up from 4Q to 1Q. And I'm curious how PACCAR fits into that in terms of -- within the context of that, these are down 5% to 7% deliveries, where North America fits in relative to Europe and some of the other markets.

普雷斯頓，或許首先要關注的是第一季的業績指引。我正在從產業層面觀察產能，至少北美地區的預期產能計畫顯示，從第四季到第一季將出現小幅較上季成長。我很好奇帕卡公司在這一背景下表現如何——考慮到其交付量下降了5%到7%，北美相對於歐洲和其他一些市場的情況又如何呢？

Sure. As we just said, we do expect deliveries to be overall 5% to 7% lower, and that's kind of matching to where the market really is. North America is more of that than Europe is. Europe's been fairly stable for us through the fourth quarter and into the first quarter. And really, it's just matching to where the normalized market has become, where we're seeing the normalized market. So it's nice for us as we have a pretty good percentage of the backlog. I think it's roughly 34% of the backlog. And compared to the inventory where we are a smaller percentage of the inventory. In fact, we only have about 2 months' worth of inventory, 2.5 months of inventory sitting in there. So we are in pretty good shape that way. And it's just normalizing to the market.

當然。正如我們剛才所說，我們預計整體交付量將下降 5% 到 7%，這與市場實際情況基本吻合。北美的情況比歐洲更為明顯。歐洲市場在第四季和第一季一直保持相對穩定。實際上，這只是與市場恢復正常後的水平相符。這對我們來說是個好消息，因為我們的積壓訂單比例相當高。我認為大約佔積壓訂單的 34%。相比之下，我們的庫存佔比很小。事實上，我們只有大約 2 個月到 2.5 個月的庫存。所以在這方面，我們的狀況相當不錯。一切都在向市場正常化過渡。

Okay. All right. And then on the margins in the first quarter, there's obviously -- you'll get a little bit more help from a seasonal perspective in the second quarter. But how are you considering that roughly 14% margin today in the first quarter relative to the full year?

好的。好的。至於第一季的利潤率，顯然，第二季會受到季節性因素的影響。但是，您如何看待目前第一季約14%的利潤率與全年相比的情況呢？

So when you look at the first quarter, and it's kind of where we stop our guidance to it as we look at the 14%, I think that's really continuing to deliver as PACCAR does, excellent industry-leading margins. And that's kind of consistently good for us. We're pleased to be able to deliver that. That's really because of the performance of our teams on the truck side, the financial services side and the parts team and composite that works really well.

所以，當我們回顧第一季時，就會發現我們目前對第一季的業績預期止步於此，因為我們預測的利潤率為14%。我認為這確實延續了PACCAR一貫的卓越表現，並維持了業界領先的利潤率。這對我們來說一直都是好消息。我們很高興能夠實現這一目標。這主要歸功於我們卡車業務、金融服務業務以及零件業務團隊的出色表現，以及他們之間的高效協作。

Our next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的安·杜伊尼安。

This is Tom Simonitsch on behalf of Ann. A quick question on SG&A, which came in a bit higher than we had modeled for the fourth quarter. Can you just talk about what drove the year-on-year increase? And is Q4 a fair run rate for 2020?

我是湯姆·西蒙尼奇，代表安妮。我有一個關於銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）的問題，第四季的實際費用比我們之前的預測略高。您能否談談造成年比上漲的原因？第四季的支出水準是否符合2020年全年的預期？

When we look at SG&A, one of the nice things for PACCAR is we have the lowest SG&A in the industry by a substantial amount. We do a great job of managing that. As a percentage of sales, it was actually down in 2019 at the end of the year. And we always take a look. We have a rigorous approach to cost control in all elements of the business, both in up cycles and down cycles. And we continue to manage that cost to the great levels we maintain. That's how we think about it. Consider very little things, very little is fixed costs and just try to do a great job.

當我們審視銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）時，PACCAR 的一大優勢在於，我們的 SG&A 水準遠低於業界平均水準。我們在成本控制方面做得非常出色。 2019 年底，SG&A 佔銷售額的比例實際上有所下降。我們始終關注這項指標。無論經濟週期好壞，我們都對業務的各個環節採取嚴格的成本控制方法。我們持續將成本控制在目前的高水準。這就是我們的理念：關注極少的細節，固定成本極少，力求做到最好。

Okay. And can you discuss new orders in North America and Europe for PACCAR relative to the industry? I think last quarter you noted your backlog represented 36% of the industry backlog. Where does it stand at the end of Q4?

好的。您能否談談PACCAR在北美和歐洲的新訂單情況，以及它們與產業整體的比較？我記得上個季度您提到過，你們的積壓訂單佔行業積壓訂單的36%。那麼第四季末的情況如何呢？

Sure. Our backlog is really sitting around 34% is what we have now. As we look at orders, orders are a complicated thing because it depends on everybody's inputs for what's an order and what's been canceled. So what we think about more is, we make sure that what we're building has a firm order, a customer name on it. That's what we do. And so we've been able to adjust our build rate, align with our orders, and that carries us forward as we look into next year.

當然。我們目前的積壓訂單量大約在34%左右。訂單情況比較複雜，因為訂單的判定取決於每個人的輸入信息，哪些訂單有效，哪些訂單已取消。所以我們更注重的是，確保我們生產的產品都有確切的訂單，上面有客戶的名字。這就是我們的做法。因此，我們能夠調整生產速度，使其與訂單量保持一致，這讓我們在展望明年時繼續前進。

Our next question comes from Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的史蒂芬‧沃克曼。

I'm curious, Preston, based on what you know today, obviously, things could change. But are the run rates for each of your factories kind of what you'd expect to be sort of stable through the year or do you think at some point there will be another production cut needed?

普雷斯頓，我很好奇，根據你目前掌握的信息，情況當然可能會改變。但你認為你旗下各工廠的產能是否能夠全年保持相對穩定，還是說在某個時候需要再次減產？

I think we think about it in a little bit more close-in view than that. We think about whether the orders we have right now present the backlog we need to keep the factories running smoothly. And that's where we're at right now. We continue to adjust. As I said, we think first quarter is, the deliveries will be down 5% to 7%. And build kind of matches that. Eventually, it has to tie together. So that's what we're thinking about in the first quarter. We are operating in what we think is a good economy. GDP growth is going to be up almost 2% in the U.S. We think European GDP is growing. So there's some positive reasons to think about the economy and the operating environment. So we'll see what happens through the course of the year as far as build.

我認為我們考慮得更具體一點。我們會考慮目前的訂單量是否足以維持工廠的正常運作。這就是我們目前的狀況。我們會持續調整。正如我所說，我們預計第一季的交付量將下降5%到7%。而生產量也大致如此。最終，兩者必須協調一致。這就是我們第一季的考量。我們認為目前的經濟狀況良好。美國GDP成長率將接近2%。我們認為歐洲GDP也在成長。因此，經濟和經營環境都存在一些正面因素。至於生產方面，我們將觀察今年的情況。

Okay. And can you just comment on what you're seeing in terms of used pricing? And I'll pass it on.

好的。能說說您看到的二手車價格狀況嗎？我會轉達的。

Sure. Used pricing, as we said in the last quarterly, is continuing to be a headwind. I think in the last time, we talked about it being somewhere in the double digit declines. And so one of the nice things about being part of PACCAR is we have an amazing team in our PACCAR Financial Services group that does a great job of managing the used trucks. We sell the best trucks in the industry and the second owners love buying PACCAR products. It's really one of our inherent advantages. And the other part of it is, I think we continue to invest in our used truck organization so that we add new used truck centers throughout Europe and North America to make sure that we are meeting the market needs. As we grow our market share means there's ultimately more used trucks, and we want to take care of our customers with those used truck centers.

當然。正如我們在上個季度報告中所說，二手車價格持續低迷。我記得上次我們提到過，二手車價格的跌幅可能達到兩位數。加入 PACCAR 的好處之一是，我們 PACCAR 金融服務集團擁有一支優秀的團隊，他們在二手卡車管理方面做得非常出色。我們銷售業內最好的卡車，二手車主也樂於購買 PACCAR 的產品。這確實是我們的一項固有優勢。另一方面，我認為我們會持續投資於二手卡車業務，在歐洲和北美各地增設新的二手卡車中心，以確保滿足市場需求。隨著市場份額的成長，二手卡車的數量也會增加，我們希望透過這些二手卡車中心更好地服務我們的客戶。

Our next question comes from Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自富國證券的安迪凱西。

I want to kind of flip over to financial services. The revenue was quite strong. Can you comment on what drove the strength in revenue? And then also within the financial services, the provision for losses on receivables dropped on an absolute basis sequentially against what continues to be a pretty challenging used truck price environment that you just described. I'm just wondering what the drivers were for that as well.

我想稍微談談金融服務方面。該業務的收入表現非常強勁。您能否談談推動營收成長的因素？另外，同樣在金融服務領域，儘管您剛才提到二手卡車價格環境依然相當嚴峻，但應收帳款損失準備金的絕對值卻環比下降。我想知道這背後的驅動因素是什麼。

Sure. Harrie, you want to?

當然。哈莉，你想嗎？

Sure. So the PACCAR Financial had a good quarter. We have a record portfolio, record revenue so that drives a lot of the profit improvement. But like Preston said, used trucks continue to be a headwind for the finance company. We expect that, that will continue in the first quarter. Customers continue to pay their bills. Past dues are low, below 1%. And credit losses are favorable, too. So we expect, with all of that, the first quarter results of the finance company to be very similar to the fourth quarter.

當然。 PACCAR Financial 上季表現不錯。我們的投資組合和收入都創下歷史新高，這很大程度上推動了利潤成長。但正如普雷斯頓所說，二手卡車市場仍是這家金融公司面臨的一大阻力。我們預計這種情況將持續到第一季。客戶仍在按時支付帳單。逾期付款率很低，低於1%。信貸損失也很理想。因此，綜合所有因素，我們預計這家金融公司第一季的業績將與第四季非常相似。

Okay. And just, Harrie, back on the revenue. It went up pretty significantly year-over-year but also sequentially. Was there any...

好的。哈里，我們再回到營收方面。營收年比和季比都大幅成長。有沒有什麼…

Sure. Some of that reflects the increased volume of used truck sales that flow through the finance company.

當然。部分原因反映了透過金融公司流通的二手卡車銷售增加。

Our next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

I'm wondering if you could please talk about what you're seeing out of your competitors in the U.S. and Canada. Typically, when we are heading into a production downturn, you folks are the first to cut production and your market share in the initial stages of a downturn is typically lower as a result. And this time, your production share actually went up in the first quarter of a reduction here. Can you just talk about what you're seeing out of your competitors and what's driving the different cadence in terms of your production share in this fourth quarter compared to the past couple of production downturns?

我想請您談談您在美國和加拿大的競爭對手的情況。通常情況下，當生產即將下滑時，貴公司總是率先減產，因此在下滑初期，貴公司的市佔率通常也會下降。但這一次，貴公司在減產的第一個季度，市佔率反而上升了。您能否談談您觀察到的競爭對手的情況，以及是什麼因素導致了貴公司在第四季度與過去幾次生產下滑時期相比，市場份額變化的趨勢？

Well, what we experience right now is we have just fantastic products out there. We have great dealer network, great products out there, and I think there's just a strong demand for our products. This really is simply as it can be put. People want to drive the best trucks and have the best services and the best powertrains, and that's what we offer. So we build again, come back to it, we build to what an order -- to the orders we have, and that's driving our increase in share. And that's as simple as we think about it. It's really kind of a nice picture for us because they're great products.

我們現在的情況是，我們的產品非常出色。我們擁有強大的經銷商網絡，產品品質一流，而且我認為市場對我們的產品需求強勁。道理其實很簡單。人們想要駕駛最好的卡車，享受最好的服務和最強勁的動力系統，而這正是我們所提供的。所以我們不斷生產，根據訂單量進行生產，這推動了我們市場份額的成長。我們就是這麼認為的。這對我們來說確實是一個非常好的局面，因為我們的產品確實很棒。

And when you look at the overall inventory picture for the industry, so we're exiting '19 with about 73,000 trucks in inventory, which, if you apply prior cycles, looks like the industry needs to take out about 20,000, maybe 30,000 trucks out of dealer inventories. What does that picture look like for PACCAR just as the natural transition for some custom end applications that are completed at the dealer site, how much do you anticipate your dealer inventories coming down in '20?

從整個產業的庫存情況來看，2019年底我們大約有73,000輛卡車庫存。如果參考以往的周期，該行業似乎需要從經銷商庫存中減少約20,000到30,000輛卡車。對於PACCAR而言，考慮到一些在經銷商現場完成的客製​​化終端應用的自然過渡，您預計2020年經銷商庫存會下降多少？

It's a good question. Our inventories are in really good shape. You said 73,000. So that's kind of a round number. If I use a round number for us, it's, call it, 18,000 of Kenworth and Peterbilt combined. It obviously depends on when you started. But as we have 30% of the market share, we really only have 25% of the inventory. So that says, again, that we're in pretty good condition. And some of that inventory, quite a bit of that inventory is with body builders right now. So we are the leader in the vocational market. And so some of those trucks are getting bodies put on to them right now.

問得好。我們的庫存狀況非常好。您說73,000輛，這算是整數。如果用一個整數來代表我們，肯沃斯和彼得比爾特加起來大概有18,000輛。當然，這取決於您從什麼時候開始統計。但由於我們擁有30%的市場份額，我們的實際庫存只佔25%。這再次說明，我們的狀況相當不錯。而且，我們相當一部分庫存目前都在車身改裝廠。我們是專用卡車市場的領導者。所以，現在有些卡車正在加裝車身。

Okay. And then on the parts business, you folks have continued to have pretty steady performance, even though there's been some puts and takes for freight markets. Can you just talk about in your outlook for 4% to 6% growth how much is the contribution from your engines hitting the sweet spot, the new truck lineup hitting the sweet spot for parts consumption versus underlying freight traffic? Can you just give us a bit of context directionally how you're thinking about the pieces relative to the outlook?

好的。關於零件業務，儘管貨運市場出現了一些波動，但你們的業績一直相當穩定。在你們4%到6%的成長預期中，能否談談引擎和新款卡車產品線在零件需求和貨運量方面分別發揮了多大的作用？能否簡單介紹一下你們如何看待這些因素對整體成長前景的影響？

Yes. I think that there's a couple of things going on and that the parts team continues to do an outstanding job. They have great technologies they're employing. It's something that we maybe don't give enough sharing of. Their e-commerce program is outstanding, and that's doing a great job of making sure we have the right products at the right places. As we mentioned in our earlier comments, we're investing in distribution centers as well, the new distribution center coming online this year in Las Vegas, Nevada, another one in Ponta Grossa in Brazil. Those contribute to parts performance. We continue to grow our proprietary powertrains, you mentioned. So I wouldn't say that's stable. That's a growing opportunity for us. Last year, we finished at 43% our engine sales being with our MX engines. That's great. It was 47% actually in the fourth quarter. That's another opportunity for us. You mentioned the great trucks and the growing share that contribute to the parts team's growth. There's just a lot of great things happening on the parts team. And so we have a great future to look forward to there.

是的。我認為目前有幾個方面正在發生變化，零件團隊的工作一直非常出色。他們運用了許多先進的技術，而我們可能在這方面做得還不夠。他們的電商專案非常出色，確保我們能在適當的地點提供合適的產品。正如我們之前提到的，我們也在投資配送中心，位於內華達州拉斯維加斯的新配送中心將於今年投入運營，另一個位於巴西蓬塔格羅薩的配送中心也將投入運營。這些都有助於提升零件業務的績效。正如您所提到的，我們自主研發的動力總成也持續成長。所以，我不會說動力總成業務已經穩定，它對我們來說是一個不斷成長的機會。去年，我們的MX引擎銷量佔總銷量的43%，這非常棒。實際上，第四季這一比例達到了47%。這對我們來說是另一個機會。您提到了性能卓越的卡車以及其不斷增長的市場份額，這些都對零件團隊的成長做出了貢獻。零件團隊目前有許多令人振奮的進展。因此，我們對那裡的未來充滿期待。

So you don't need really strong pickup in freight volumes to hit the 4% to 6% growth target?

所以，你並不需要貨運量出現非常強勁的成長就能達到 4% 到 6% 的成長目標？

No. I think what we see is the freight volume does drive demand, but it's really about the size of the parc, bigger influence is the size of the parc, the size of your proprietary content. And that takes a few years to mature where parts consumption is really growing. Again, looking forward, I think that we have a great amount of freight being hauled, right? Freight tonnage was up last year over 3%, and so that's going to contribute to utilization. We agree with you on that.

不。我認為我們看到的是貨運量確實會驅動需求，但真正起作用的是園區規模，園區規模，也就是您自有內容的規模，影響更大。而這需要幾年時間才能成熟，零件消耗量才能真正成長。展望未來，我認為我們有很多貨物正在運輸，對吧？去年貨運噸位成長了3%以上，這將有助於提高利用率。我們同意您的觀點。

Our next question comes from Ross Gilardi with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅斯·吉拉迪。

I just had a question on decremental margin. I mean if you go back to 2016, you seem to have sort of a similar revenue composition of down truck production but very steady parts. And that translated into kind of a 15%-ish type decremental gross margin pre-R&D. Is there any reason why you shouldn't be able to sustain a similar level of performance or anything to think about this time around versus then?

我有一個關於毛利率下降的問題。我的意思是，如果回顧2016年，你們的收入組成似乎與現在類似，卡車產量下降，但零件業務非常穩定。這導致研發前毛利率下降了約15%。這次你們能否維持類似的業績水準？或者說，與上次相比，有什麼需要考慮的地方嗎？

Well, I think you characterized it well when we think about incrementals and decrementals in that 15% to 20% range. And so as you said, we saw in the 2016 time frame. And I think that's a nice way to look at it going forward.

嗯，我覺得你對15%到20%這個範圍內的增減變化描述得很到位。正如你所說，我們在2016年期間就看到了這一點。我認為這是一個很好的展望未來的方式。

Okay. Great. And then the parts business has remained very resilient but certainly did decelerate a bit as the year kind of grinded on. Are you seeing any type of maintenance deferrals amid softer market conditions? And when you say that you expect the business to be up 4% to 6% in 2020, is that somewhat second half weighted or do you think we'll see this acceleration back to that growth trajectory out of the gate in the first half of the year?

好的，太好了。零件業務一直保持著很強的韌性，但隨著年底臨近，成長確實有所放緩。在市場疲軟的情況下，您是否觀察到任何維護保養方面的延期？您預計2020年業務成長將達到4%至6%，而這個成長主要集中在下半年，還是您認為上半年就會恢復到先前的成長動能？

Yes. I think that the 4% to 6%, obviously, is what we said for how we look at it going forward. And I don't think I would try to stratify that by quarter. I think it's going to be good performance throughout. Obviously, there can always be moments of cyclicality that are impossible to kind of guess where people are going to be by weeks or a month. But in general, with great freight volumes, a great parts team, the right product lineups and the right investments, it's going to continue to deliver.

是的。我認為，4%到6%的成長目標顯然是我們先前對未來績效的預期。而且我認為沒必要按季度細分。我認為整體業績會不錯。當然，市場總是會有一些週期性波動，很難準確預測未來幾週或一個月的情況。但總的來說，憑藉強勁的貨運量、優秀的零件團隊、合理的產品線和正確的投資，公司將繼續保持良好的表現。

And then just on the SG&A, the question you got before. Are you trying to say that SG&A as a percentage of sales overall should be roughly similar to where it was in 2019?

關於銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A），也就是你之前被問到的問題。你是想說銷售、管理及行政費用佔總銷售額的比例應該與2019年的水準大致相同嗎？

Well, that's -- if you go back and look, that's where SG&A has kind of run for us. Again, comparing it to the industry, it's significantly the leanness of PACCAR shows through. We continue to do a great job of managing that SG&A, and I think we'll continue to do that going forward.

嗯，如果你回顧一下，你會發現我們的銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）一直都控制在這個水準。再次強調，與業界平均值相比，PACCAR 的精簡營運優勢顯而易見。我們一直以來都很好地控制著 SG&A，而且我認為未來我們也會繼續保持這種優勢。

Well, I think the context of the prior question was just that it did jump a little bit in the fourth quarter relative to the third quarter. So just holistically, if we're looking at it for the full year, just trying to get a sense if as a percentage of sales if it's going to...

嗯，我覺得前一個問題的背景是，第四季相對於第三季確實略有成長。所以，從整體來看，如果我們看全年情況，只是想了解它佔銷售額的百分比是否會…

I would take a longer view of it and look where PACCAR has historically performed and know that we'll perform in that same level. And as I think I would guess that share is, we will continue to rigorously manage our costs and control them and make the right decisions that build the future of the company in a great way.

我會從更長遠的角度來看待這個問題，回顧PACCAR的歷史業績，相信我們能夠維持同樣的水準。而且，正如我所預想的那樣，我們將繼續嚴格控製成本，做出正確的決策，從而為公司的未來發展奠定堅實的基礎。

Okay. And then just lastly, on the R&D side, I mean, you're guiding to sort of stable R&D, but with -- in the context of getting to production models for your alternative powertrain models over the next -- over the next 1.5 years, how should we think about that? I guess I'm a little bit surprised that, that number is not ramping up a little bit as you're moving in that direction.

好的。最後，關於研發方面，我的意思是，你們正朝著穩定的研發方向發展，但是——考慮到未來一年半內你們的替代動力總成車型能否實現量產——我們該如何看待這個問題？我有點驚訝，隨著你們朝著這個方向前進，這個數字並沒有相應增長。

I think we have an amazing team of engineering people around the world, and they're doing a fantastic job of looking at how we should go to production. We're working closely with all the customers whose interest is in alternative powertrains, and we'll have the right technologies for those customers when it comes time. We continue to do that in PACCAR's way, which is with good decision-making, prudent investments and leveraging our supply base and the other companies that are out there.

我認為我們擁有一支遍布全球的傑出工程團隊，他們在研究如何實現量產方面做得非常出色。我們與所有對替代動力系統感興趣的客戶緊密合作，時機成熟時，我們將為他們提供合適的技術。我們將繼續秉承帕卡一貫的作風，即透過明智的決策、審慎的投資以及充分利用我們的供應鏈和其他合作夥伴。

Our next question comes from Jamie Cook with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Jamie Cook。

I guess 2 follow-up questions. One, within the U.S., when you're talking about your orders and your backlog, can you distinguish between what you're seeing on the vocational side versus linehaul side, if there's any variation there? And then just second, a nuance, when you're talking about Europe relative to the retail sales guide and relative to what other customers have come out and said, it sounds like you're seeing Europe sort of more stable. I'm just wondering if Europe is trending a little better than what you would have thought so far? And if so, what geographies are driving that?

我想問兩個後續問題。第一，在美國，當您談到訂單和積壓訂單時，您能否區分專業運輸和乾線運輸方面的訂單情況，看看是否存在差異？第二，還有一個細節問題。當您談到歐洲市場時，結合零售銷售指南和其他客戶的回饋，您似乎認為歐洲市場更加穩定。我想知道歐洲市場目前的趨勢是否比您預期的要好一些？如果是這樣，哪些地區是主要驅動因素？

Let's take the first part of the question. I think we are the leaders in the vocational market, Peterbilt and Kenworth are. And they do a great job of that. The vocational market is doing really well throughout U.S. and Canada with housing starts up, construction being strong. PACCAR does a great job there. And so that's a good percentage of our orders. We're obviously pleased with how that's working and feel like that will continue through the course of the year as the economy develops. I think from the European side of the question, I think Europe is working the way we thought it might work into the first quarter where our build rates have been stable there for 2 quarters now, more than 2 quarters. And we're delivering good market share in. People are loving the DAF trucks. Freight continues to be moved from Central and Eastern Europe into Western Europe. That's kind of the continuing trend line, macro trend. And we benefit from that because DAF is the market leader in those areas, and it really contributes to our success.

我們先來看問題的第一部分。我認為我們在專用卡車市場處於領先地位，彼得比爾特和肯沃斯也是如此。他們在這方面做得非常好。隨著房屋開工量增加，建築業蓬勃發展，美國和加拿大的專用卡車市場整體表現非常強勁。帕卡集團在這方面做得非常出色。因此，這部分訂單佔了我們訂單的很大比例。我們對目前的進展非常滿意，並相信隨著經濟的發展，這種勢頭將在今年持續下去。至於歐洲市場，我認為它的發展正如我們預期的那樣，第一季我們的產量已經連續兩個季度保持穩定，而且市場份額相當可觀。人們非常喜歡達夫卡車。貨物運輸持續從中歐和東歐流向西歐。這是一種持續的宏觀趨勢。而我們正從中受益，因為達夫是這些地區的市場領導者，這確實為我們的成功做出了貢獻。

Our next question comes from Steven Fisher with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

Wondering how you feel about the second half visibility and your confidence in the outlook. Obviously, in the first half, you have more backlog, but curious how you formed your full year market view and your assumptions in the first half versus the second half?

想了解您對下半年市場前景的看法以及信心。顯然，上半年積壓訂單較多，但我很好奇您是如何形成全年市場預期，以及您對上半年和下半年的假設有何不同？

Yes. I think what we did is we said that we have a growing economy. So that's contributory. We're very close with all our customers. We spend a lot of time talking to them about how their business are working because that's really the underlying principle for how our build will develop. In the last even few weeks, last week or 2, I've talked to several of my friends that are refrigerated carriers and flatbed haulers and truckload carriers throughout the country just to see how their businesses are running. They're running well. And yet, we still feel like there will be some -- there was probably an overbuy in 2018, '19. And so that's going to normalize itself into the 230,000 to 260,000 kind of a market for U.S. and Canada.

是的。我認為我們所做的就是強調經濟成長。這確實是促成因素。我們與所有客戶都保持著非常密切的聯繫。我們花很多時間與他們溝通，了解他們的業務運作情況，因為這正是我們產品開發的基礎原則。在過去的幾週，確切地說是過去一兩週，我與幾位在全國各地從事冷藏運輸、平板運輸和整車運輸的朋友進行了交流，了解他們的業務運營情況。他們的業務運作良好。然而，我們仍然認為市場會出現一些問題——2018年和2019年可能出現了超買。因此，市場最終將恢復正常，美國和加拿大的市場規模將穩定在23萬到26萬輛左右。

Are those customers telling you that they're going to start stepping up their orders at some particular point in the year to be able to hit that, make that 230,000, 260,000 market number work?

這些客戶是否告訴您，他們將在一年中的某個特定時間開始增加訂單，以達到 23 萬、26 萬的市場目標？

It's not that specific. I think people buy trucks when they need them. And there's a huge population of people buying trucks that it would be not accurate to model it that way, not that specifically.

沒那麼具體。我覺得人們買卡車是因為他們真的需要。而且買卡車的人潮非常龐大，所以用那種不夠具體的模型來描述並不準確。

Okay. And then just one quick one on the finco. As you think about 2020, should we sort of carry forward this Q4 profitability level for the whole year of 2020 or do you think there'll be some fluctuations on that relative to just demand and used values?

好的。那麼，關於財務方面，我再快速問一個問題。展望2020年，我們是否應該將第四季度的獲利水準延續到2020年全年，還是您認為獲​​利水準會因需求和二手房價值的變化而有所波動？

I think the team has done a really nice job in the finco of delivering good performance, and we expect that performance to deliver through the first quarter. And then we'll watch as the year develops through that.

我認為財務團隊做得非常出色，業績表現良好，我們預計第一季業績將保持穩定。之後，我們將密切關注全年的發展。

Our next question comes from Seth Weber with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的塞思‧韋伯。

Just wanted to circle back on the Europe question. I think if my numbers are right, the DAF share actually ticked down a little bit 2019 versus '18. Is there anything you'd call out there from a regional or country perspective? And do you think that, that reverses here in 2020?

我想再補充一下關於歐洲的問題。如果我的數據沒錯的話，2019 年 DAF 的份額實際上比 2018 年略有下降。從區域或國家層級來看，您有什麼看法？您認為這種情況在 2020 年會逆轉嗎？

Yes. So 2 thoughts to that is, we had 16.2% in 2019, which was the second best year ever, which is coming off of our 16.6%. You're right. That was up 1 point and -- 1.3%. So we had a huge gain and we held on to that gain and we still have good momentum right now, I think. The other part of it is on the medium-duty side. We grew our share from 9% to 9.7% during the course of 2019. So we actually grew there. And then I think it's -- I wouldn't try to isolate down from that. The U.K. did really well, but we're performing well in a lot of the markets in Europe. And I think the DAF trucks are really performing and helping our customers be successful.

是的。關於這一點，我想說兩點：2019年我們的市佔率是16.2%，這是有史以​​來第二好的年份，比前一年的16.6%略高。你說得對，成長了1個百分點，也就是-1.3%。所以我們取得了巨大的成長，並且保持了這一成長勢頭，我認為我們目前仍然保持著良好的發展勢頭。另一方面，在中型卡車領域，我們的市佔率在2019年從9%成長到了9.7%。所以我們實際上也實現了成長。然後，我認為——我不會試圖將其他因素單獨拿出來討論。英國市場表現非常出色，我們在歐洲許多市場也都表現出色。我認為DAF卡車確實表現出色，並且正在幫助我們的客戶取得成功。

Okay. And then just a follow-up on -- I think you mentioned price/cost was positive in the fourth quarter. Anything you'd call out for your thoughts for 2020? Do you expect that to continue?

好的。還有一個後續問題——我記得您提到第四季度價格/成本比為正。您對2020年有什麼看法？您認為這種情況會持續嗎？

I think what we saw was prices were a little bit realized over, a little bit over 2% and costs were a little less than 2%. And we'll watch what happens in 2020 and see how that model develops for us. But there's obviously going to be fluctuations as we go forward.

我認為我們看到的是，實際價格略高於預期，漲幅略高於2%，而成本漲幅略低於2%。我們將密切關注2020年的發展情況，看看這種模式對我們有何影響。但顯然，隨著時間的推移，價格波動在所難免。

Our next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

I wanted to pick up on that point about price/cost. With the first quarter, the implied deliveries are down about 17% year-over-year. And in that context, I think the 14% gross margin would be viewed as fairly impressive. Price/cost, you said it was positive in the fourth quarter. Can you give us some sense the cadence or what do you expect for the first quarter? I think people are just trying to figure out if there's a risk to the top line, what's the decremental on it? In the first quarter, the setup on the guide, again, relatively impressive at 14% gross margin with that kind of delivery decline. So can you help us a bit on maybe mix in the backlog, price/cost in the first quarter. We're just trying to get a sense of the resiliency of that, again, relatively impressive decremental in the first quarter.

我想就價格/成本這一點再談一下。第一季度，隱含交付量較去年同期下降約17%。在這種情況下，我認為14%的毛利率相當不錯。您提到第四季價格/成本為正。您能否大致說明一下第一季的預期，或是說您對第一季的預期如何？我想大家都在試著弄清楚營收是否有風險，以及會受到多大影響。第一季度，在交付量下降的情況下，14%的毛利率仍然相當可觀。所以，您能否就第一季積壓訂單的組成以及價格/成本方面做一些分析？我們只是想了解第一季毛利率的韌性，以及它目前相對不錯的表現。

Yes. I think if I -- thanks for the question, David. I think when we think about it, it's really about making sure we have the right -- that we are building the right quantity of trucks, which is, obviously, based on having the right orders. And so we have those matched well together. We're not seeing tremendous fluctuations in costs. We're not seeing tremendous fluctuations in price. So the fact that we had a good price realization in the fourth quarter was advantageous to us, and we'll see what happens as we get into 2020 and watch what that model looks like. It's kind of that.

是的。我想，如果我──謝謝你的提問，大衛。我認為，仔細想想，關鍵在於確保我們生產了適量的卡車，這顯然取決於我們是否獲得了合適的訂單。目前，我們很好地實現了這兩者之間的匹配。我們沒有看到成本出現劇烈波動，也沒有看到價格出現劇烈波動。因此，第四季良好的價格實現對我們有利，我們將觀察2020年的發展情況，看看這種模式會如何變化。大概就是這樣。

So the price/cost spread in the first -- in the fourth quarter, you don't expect it to be terribly different in the first or second. I think we were just trying to figure out, is that really a mix, price/cost benefit to get you to stay at 14% gross margins or is it just structurally with parts and so forth that we can be somewhat comfortable? And if we do want to model a more conservative top line, the gross margin resiliency is there? I mean that's the kind of the spirit of the question.

所以，第一季到第四季的價格/成本差，預計不會比第一季和第二季有太大變化。我們只是想弄清楚，這真的是價格/成本優勢的組合，才能讓毛利率維持在14%嗎？還是說，只是零件等結構性因素讓我們覺得可以接受？如果我們想要設定一個更保守的營收模型，毛利率的韌性是否足夠？我的意思是，這才是問題的核心。

Yes. I think if I try to get to the spirit of it, really, if you think about price, it's because the team does a great job of supporting customers and people are willing to pay for our trucks. That's the overarching thing on price to me is that people want to have PACCAR products because they're the best. And then they are willing to buy those products. I think that part of the truck, part and other gross margin performance has to do with the strong performance of our parts organization. So that is, as truck sales is down, parts mix is up. That's a contributor as well. And really, it's both of those things that keep us performing at the industry-leading levels.

是的。我覺得如果要深入探討價格的本質，你會發現，價格之所以能取得成功，是因為我們的團隊在客戶支援方面做得非常出色，而且人們也願意為我們的卡車買單。對我來說，價格的關鍵在於，人們想要購買 PACCAR 的產品，因為它們是最好的。而且他們也願意購買這些產品。我認為卡車、零件和其他產品的毛利率表現，部分原因在於我們零件部門的強勁表現。也就是說，儘管卡車銷量下滑，但零件的銷量卻在上升。這也是一個重要因素。實際上，正是這兩方面因素讓我們始終保持著業界領先的水準。

But it's not necessarily because price/cost gets notably better in the first quarter as there's some thought your costs are down from steel with all the...

但這並不一定是因為第一季的價格/成本比顯著改善，因為有人認為，由於鋼材等因素，你的成本有所下降…

No. There's nothing that's substantial there.

不，那裡沒有什麼實質的東西。

Our next question comes from Courtney Yakavonis with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Courtney Yakavonis。

Just back on the finco again. I just wanted to understand because it seemed like your pretax profit was down, and I think Steven asked earlier just about carrying forward the margin. But was there anything onetime that was impacting margins this quarter or is it just the weaker used values? Are there any impairments or increased depreciation expenses that are really causing that big step-up in the interest and other borrowing expenses?

我又來問財務方面的問題了。我想了解一下，因為你們的稅前利潤似乎下降了，而且我記得史蒂文之前問過關於利潤率結轉的問題。這個季度利潤率下降是因為有什麼一次性因素影響，還是只是二手資產價值下降導致的？是否有資產減損或折舊費用增加，導致利息和其他借貸費用大幅上升？

Yes. Your final statement is characterizing exactly. What we would say is, we had record new business volume in 2019 with the $5.6 billion. That was a contributor to revenue growth. And then more volume on the used side was the other contributor to revenues, and that was the headwind on the profit side.

是的，您最後那句話說得非常準確。我們想說的是，2019年我們的新業務量創下歷史新高，達到56億美元。這推動了營收成長。而二手車業務量的成長也促進了營收成長，但同時也對利潤造成了一定的負面影響。

And I think you mentioned that you're still seeing the double digit declines in used. Have you seen any stabilization in used values or is it still wait and see kind of how that market shakes out?

我想您剛才提到二手車價格仍出現兩位數的跌幅。您認為二手車價格是否有任何穩定跡象，還是仍需要觀望市場最終走向？

Well, it's a dynamic market. I think that the nice thing is that, as I said, and it can't be overstressed the fact that especially maybe the second owners or equally the second owners really like our products. So that's helpful to us from the price position compared to the rest of the industry. So that works to keep us at a premium, not just for the first, but the second owner. And then I would share your comment that things have stabilized a little bit. One way to look at that is that the amount of inventory coming in is equal to the inventory going out, so that's helpful as well. We're not building used inventory. And so kind of the state of where it is right now.

嗯，這是一個瞬息萬變的市場。我認為有利的一點是，正如我所說，而且這一點怎麼強調都不為過，尤其是二手車主，或者說二手車主，都非常喜歡我們的產品。這對我們很有幫助，讓我們在價格方面比業內其他公司更有優勢。這樣一來，我們的產品就能維持一定的溢價，不僅對第一位車主如此，對第二任車主也是如此。我也同意你的觀點，市場已經趨於穩定。從某種意義上說，目前進出庫存量基本上持平，這也有助於市場穩定。我們沒有增加二手庫存。這就是目前的市場狀況。

And then just on the CapEx side, I think your CapEx for the year came in about $100 million below what your guidance had been. And you obviously didn't change the CapEx guidance for next year. So just wanted to understand kind of what that discrepancy was and if anything is proceeding ahead of schedule or any projects got cut?

再說資本支出方面，我認為你們今年的資本支出比之前的預期少了約1億美元。顯然，你們沒有調整明年的資本支出預期。所以我想了解造成這種差異的原因，以及是否有任何項目提前完成，或者是否有任何項目被取消了？

No. In fact, that's not exactly how we saw it. We saw CapEx was kind of slightly higher than where we had started. And we have a good cash flow or CapEx plan for 2020 as well, which is going to deliver the great products we need. I wonder if you're looking at the cash flow statements more than you are CapEx commitments.

不，實際上，我們並非如此看待這個問題。我們發現資本支出略高於最初的預期。而且，我們2020年的現金流量和資本支出計畫也相當不錯，足以滿足我們生產所需優質產品的需求。我懷疑你們是不是更關注現金流量表，而不是資本支出承諾。

Okay. Yes, I was looking at the $575 million versus the guidance for $625 million to $675 million, but maybe that's the issue...

好的。是的，我當時在比較5.75億美元和之前6.25億美元到6.75億美元的預期，但也許問題就出在這裡…

Be careful where you're looking at. Yes, I think $744 million is the number that we were talking about for 2019.

注意你看的地方。是的，我想7.44億美元就是我們之前討論的2019年的數字。

Okay. Perfect. And then just lastly, I think the comments that your build has remained steady. I just want to make sure that, that means that you really don't anticipate any further production cuts from the build rates that you're at currently?

好的，沒問題。最後，我想確認一下，您提到生產一直保持穩定，這是否意味著您真的不打算進一步降低目前的生產速度？

I think what we said is, we would expect in the first quarter that deliveries would be down 5% to 7%, and that's obviously matching the order intake.

我認為我們之前說過，預計第一季的交付量將下降 5% 至 7%，這顯然與訂單量相符。

Our next question comes from Joel Tiss with BMO.

下一個問題來自BMO的Joel Tiss。

So I wonder if you could spend a minute just talking about Latin America, about how the setup is, kind of what your market share is looking like and how you think you can gain a little bit more share in 2020 and just kind of the setup of the market there?

所以我想請您花一分鐘時間談談拉丁美洲市場，談談那裡的市場格局，您的市場份額情況，以及您認為在 2020 年如何才能獲得更多市場份額，還有那裡的市場格局？

Sure. It's been a fantastic journey for us there. We have a great set of dealers, really neat products down there. We've got a lot of success with the dealers and the customers. I think the brand reputation for DAF in Brazil has grown tremendously in just a very short period of time. We're looking at our market share growth opportunities as being substantial. We think that the market is relatively stable down there. So Brazil comes in at 75,000. The South American market overall is 100,000 to 110,000. As we noted, we increased our deliveries by 60% last year in South America, so substantial growth that way. And we'll just look forward to continuing growing the truck sales. The parts business is doing really well. We introduced the financial services business for customer financing in Brazil last year. So a lot of good activity happening for us in South America.

當然。我們在巴西的發展歷程非常精彩。我們在那裡擁有一批優秀的經銷商，產品也非常出色。我們與經銷商和客戶都取得了巨大的成功。我認為DAF在巴西的品牌聲譽在很短的時間內就得到了極大的提升。我們認為市場佔有率的成長機會非常可觀。我們認為巴西市場相對穩定。巴西的銷量為7.5萬輛，整個南美市場的銷量為10萬至11萬輛。正如我們之前提到的，去年我們在南美的交付量增加了60%，這是一個顯著的成長。我們期待卡車銷量能夠繼續成長。零件業務也發展良好。去年，我們在巴西推出了客戶融資金融服務。總之，我們在南美洲的業務發展勢頭良好。

Our next question comes from Felix Boeschen with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Felix Boeschen。

I appreciate some of the color on the parts outlook. But as we're sort of dissecting some of the different buckets within the business, I'm curious if you have an update on the TRP stores? How many do you plan to add next year? And maybe any color on some sort of same-store sales growth number in that existing base of the stores?

我很欣賞您對零件業務前景的分析。但鑑於我們正在深入探討公司內部的不同業務板塊，我想了解TRP門市的最新情況。您計劃明年新增多少家店？能否透露一下現有門市的同店銷售成長情況？

TRP has been a great addition for us in reaching a new customer base. They've done a fantastic job of that. There's 210 stores now that are in operation. So that's growth year-over-year. We'll keep growing the number of stores where they make sense with our dealers all around the world, whether that's in Europe, it could be in Russia, it could be in South America, North America, all of the above, really. So we'll continue to see the brand grow and perform well and bring new customers to PACCAR.

TRP 的加入大大幫助我們拓展了新的客戶群。他們在這方面做得非常好。目前已有 210 家門市投入經營，實現了年成長。我們將繼續與全球各地的經銷商合作，在合適的地區增加門市數量，無論是在歐洲、俄羅斯、南美、北美，或是其他任何地區。因此，我們期待該品牌能夠持續發展壯大，並為 PACCAR 帶來更多新客戶。

Okay. And then just curious to see if you have an update on the margin profile into next year for the parts business. On one hand, you obviously have the aging MX engine population and then the other one, the TRP revenue increase. So any color would be appreciated on that.

好的。另外，我想了解您對明年零件業務利潤率的預測。一方面，MX引擎的老舊問題顯而易見；另一方面，TRP收入的成長也是一個重要因素。如果您能提供一些相關信息，我將不勝感激。

I think the margin profile will stay relatively in the same range.

我認為利潤率將保持在相對相同的範圍內。

Okay. Like 27%, 28%?

好的。大概27%、28%？

In that kind of range.

就在這個範圍內。

Our next question comes from Adam Uhlman with Cleveland Research.

下一個問題來自克里夫蘭研究公司的亞當·烏爾曼。

Going back to the MX engine, looks like you had a pretty strong fourth quarter. I don't know how much of that increase was mix of customers that you're shipping the engine out to. But how are you thinking about your penetration rate for this year?

回到MX引擎的話題，看來你們第四季的業績相當不錯。我不知道這其中有多少成長來自於你們引擎出貨客戶群的多元化。但你們又如何看待今年的市場滲透率？

So we have a great powertrain offering, obviously, with the MX engine. That's a core of it. We have great relationship with Cummins as well. It does a great job of supporting our customers with their powertrain. We did grow our MX engine share to 47% in the fourth quarter for a full year average of 43%. Part of what enabled that is we invested in manufacturing capacity in the course of the year last year. So we have adequate capacity to build as many MXs as we want for the customers. And we look forward to seeing that continue to grow as we move through the cycle.

顯然，我們擁有強大的動力總成產品線，其中MX引擎特別突出。這是我們產品的核心。我們與康明斯也保持著良好的合作關係。康明斯在動力系統方面為我們的客戶提供了卓越的支援。第四季度，MX引擎的市佔率成長至47%，全年平均市佔率為43%。這部分得益於我們去年對產能的投資。因此，我們擁有充足的產能，能夠滿足客戶對MX引擎的需求。我們期待隨著經濟週期的推進，這一比例能夠持續成長。

Okay. Got you. And then just a clarification, again, on the Financial Services revenue. Can you tell us how much your used truck sales were up in the quarter?

好的，明白了。關於金融服務收入，我再確認一下。您能告訴我們本季二手卡車的銷售成長了多少嗎？

I don't have that detail sitting around in front of me, but they did increase. I just don't know the number in front of us.

我手頭上沒有具體數據，但數量確實增加了。我只是不知道我們面前的數字是多少。

Our next question comes from Matt Elkott with Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 公司的 Matt Elkott。

I think your heavy duty percentage tends to be around 85% historically. So first, are you still comfortable with that breakout longer term? And the second part of my question, what was it in the fourth quarter?

我認為你們重型設備佔比歷來都在 85% 左右。所以首先，你仍然對這種長期突破感到滿意嗎？我的第二個問題是，第四季的情況如何？

So I think that, that general percent is okay, but we have great growth opportunities in the heavy side and the medium side as we look forward to it. So we'll continue to see share develop for PACCAR positively, take steady approach to it. And we've been very successful growing share, and we'll continue to find that same success. I don't think there'll be much of a shift, though. And I don't have the exact number, but you can -- your numbers of ratios are about right.

所以我認為，這個整體百分比還可以接受，但我們在重型和中型燃料領域擁有巨大的成長機會。因此，我們預計PACCAR的市場份額將繼續穩定成長，我們將採取穩健的策略。我們在提升市場佔有率方面一直非常成功，並將繼續取得同樣的成功。不過，我認為不會有太大的變化。我沒有確切的數字，但你提供的比例數據大致正確。

Okay. And do you think that you may have picked up some share due to the GM strike in the Class 6 to 7 categories in the fourth quarter?

好的。您認為由於通用汽車在第四季度6級和7級卡車司機罷工，您是否在市場份額上有所增長？

I think we picked up share because we just have great trucks, great people, great dealers.

我認為我們之所以能獲得市場份額，是因為我們擁有優秀的卡車、優秀的員工和優秀的經銷商。

Got it. And then just one other question. If we take a longer-term view, could you update us on your strategic priorities, anything that's likely to become more of a focus, more of a growth driver, whether it's a specific region or more vertical integration of PACCAR engines or alternative technologies or anything else?

明白了。還有一個問題。從長遠來看，您能否介紹一下貴公司的策略重點，有哪些方面可能會成為重點，成為成長動力，無論是特定地區、PACCAR引擎的垂直整合、替代技術還是其他方面？

Well, you hit some of them, right? We're going to keep growing organically. We're going to grow geographically where it makes sense and provides profit for the corporation. And we're going to keep making the prudent investments in technologies that deliver great trucks and powertrains to our customers when they need them. And so all of those will be areas that we grow in.

嗯，你們確實做到了其中一些，對吧？我們將繼續保持有機成長。我們會在合理且能為公司帶來利潤的地區進行地域擴張。我們也會繼續對相關技術進行審慎的投資，以便在客戶需要時為他們提供優質的卡車和動力系統。因此，所有這些領域都將是我們未來發展的方向。

Our next question comes from Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

My question is, you gave helpful comments on European market share. Are you willing to sort of talk about your theme of improving straight truck market share, whether that's progressing and whether you need that to work to sort of get above a certain threshold? And any update you can give us there?

我的問題是，您對歐洲市場份額提出了很有幫助的意見。您是否願意談談您提出的提高廂型車市場份額的目標，例如進展如何，以及是否需要繼續努力才能達到某個門檻？您能否提供一些最新進展？

It continues to be a focus. We're continuing to do well with it. We did grow as a percentage there in the straight truck market. That's going to continue to be an area of -- we just talked on the prior question is organic growth for us.

這仍然是我們的重點。我們在這方面也持續取得良好進展。我們在廂型車市場的佔比確實有所成長。這將繼續是我們——正如我們剛才在上一個問題中提到的——實現有機成長的領域。

Are you growing both -- well, you have room to grow both tractor and straight truck share in Europe or is there any kind of limit on the tractor side?

你們是否在同時發展拖拉機和廂型車業務——你們在歐洲市場是否還有發展拖拉機和廂式貨車市場份額的空間，還是說拖拉機業務方面存在某種限制？

No. There's no limit. I mean we're the market leader in tractors and we'll continue to be enjoying that and looking for extension of that and growing on the straight truck side as well.

不，沒有限制。我的意思是，我們是拖拉機市場的領導者，我們將繼續保持這一優勢，並尋求擴大這一優勢，同時也將在廂型車領域發展壯大。

Yes. We have the product in the straight truck side. So if you look at markets where DAF has been for a long time, the U.K., Netherlands, Belgium, our straight truck market share is about the same as the tractor market share. So we do have the products. It's just a matter of growing that business also in markets like Germany, France, Italy and Spain.

是的，我們在廂型車領域擁有成熟的產品線。如果你看看DAF長期耕耘的市場，例如英國、荷蘭和比利時，你會發現我們的廂型車市場份額與牽引車市場份額基本持平。所以，我們的產品確實具備競爭力。現在的問題是如何在德國、法國、義大利和西班牙等市場拓展這項業務。

Okay. And if I can -- I don't know if this is an answerable question, but I'll ask it anyway. Just what's your -- in a normal up and down cycle, what's your preferred pacing of production changes? Given supply chain, given ramping, et cetera, would you be looking to make adjustments 1 and 2 quarters out or 2 quarters and 3 quarters out? I know you don't try to hold a lot of inventory. You're not trying to stuff the dealers. Just a little bit about the rhythm of how you think about production changes.

好的。如果可以的話——我不知道這個問題是否可以回答，但我還是想問一下。在正常的周期性波動中，您傾向於以怎樣的節奏調整生產？考慮到供應鏈、產能爬坡等因素，您會考慮提早1到2季進行調整，還是提前2到3季調整？我知道您不會囤積大量庫存，也不會試圖讓經銷商供貨過剩。我只是想了解一下您是如何考慮生產調整節奏的。

I think we build trucks to order is the essence of it, which is different than the automotive industry. What we do is when we talk to our customers and they need a truck, then we schedule that in and we try to maintain some kind of a visibility, whether that's 4, 8, 12 weeks. And that's how we define our production schedules.

我認為我們按訂單生產卡車是其本質，這與汽車行業截然不同。我們的做法是，當客戶提出卡車需求後，我們會安排生產計劃，並盡量保持生產進度的透明度，無論是4週、8週還是12週。這就是我們制定生產計劃的方式。

Our next question comes from Joe O'Dea with Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Joe O'Dea。

My impression so far on commentary around pricing expectations is that it's more of a wait-and-see into 2020. What we saw the last time demand did soften in 2016 is that there was a little bit of pricing pressure. And I'm just curious whether you anticipate that we should be looking at something similar just given a little bit softer demand or if you're seeing anything different out there across competitor behavior that would suggest that pricing can hold up?

目前我對價格預期的評論的印像是，大家大多持觀望態度，直到2020年才會做出決定。上次需求疲軟是在2016年，當時價格出現了一些壓力。我很好奇，鑑於需求略有疲軟，您是否預計會出現類似的情況？或者您觀察到競爭對手的行為有任何不同，表明價格可以保持穩定？

I think if you think of it in terms of truck, part and other, we -- in the truck side, there will be, obviously, market dynamics drive differences, but we have a continued strong performance and increasing percentage of our performance coming from parts, and they're doing a great job. So that's a little bit of a balancing factor to it looking back to prior cycles. But no, I don't think you should think that PACCAR's going to do anything except deliver the best margins in the industry.

我認為，如果從卡車、零件和其他業務的角度來看，在卡車業務方面，市場動態顯然會帶來差異，但我們持續保持強勁的業績，而且零件業務在我們業績中所佔的比例越來越高，他們做得非常出色。回顧以往的周期，這在一定程度上起到了平衡作用。但是，我認為你不應該認為帕卡會做任何事，除了追求業內最高的利潤率。

And then I guess related, but a little bit more of a mix type question. Similarly, going back from -- if we just track 2015 to 2016, the average truck price was down, and it was more than just a pure pricing effect. Is there anything to just be aware of with general mix in a softer demand environment and what that means for average unit pricing just given the mix effect?

然後，我想再補充一點，這個問題可能與此相關，但更偏向產品組合方面。同樣地，如果我們回顧2015年至2016年的數據，會發現卡車平均價格下降，但這不僅僅是單純的價格因素造成的。在需求疲軟的環境下，產品組合方面是否存在一些需要注意的地方？考慮到產品組合的影響，這對平均單價又意味著什麼？

No, I don't really think so. I don't think there's anything in there.

不，我並不這麼認為。我覺得裡面什麼都沒有。

Our next question comes from Jeff Kauffman with Loop Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的 Jeff Kauffman。

Hey, a lot of the real smart questions have been asked here. I just want to follow up with one I think I know the answer to and just a detail. When you're giving the 5% to 7% down figure, that's sequentially versus 4Q. That's not a year-on-year number, correct?

嗨，這裡已經問了很多很有見地的問題了。我只想補充一個我認為我知道答案的問題，以及一個細節。你說的下降5%到7%是指環比下降，而不是同比下降，對嗎？

Yes. Correct.

是的，沒錯。

Okay. And then secondly, with the U.S. pulling back a little bit more than Europe, at least in the outlook, how should I think about tax rate or are there any other changes that I would think about to some of the other line items that would occur as a result of that?

好的。其次，鑑於美國的經濟收縮幅度比歐洲更大（至少從前景來看是這樣），我該如何考慮稅率？或者說，由於這種情況，我是否需要考慮對其他一些項目進行哪些調整？

Yes. I don't think you can -- there's not going to be much change in tax rate overall.

是的。我認為不行－整體稅率不會有太大變動。

Okay. So consistent with where we are this year?

好的。所以這和我們今年的情況一致嗎？

Yes.

是的。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自富國證券的安迪凱西。

Hello, again. Two questions, one short term. I know it's a smaller volume market for you, but you have pretty good share over there. I'm wondering if you could comment on whether you expect the Australian natural disasters to have any tangible impact on 2020 demand.

您好，我又來了。有兩個問題，其中一個是短期的。我知道對你們來說，這算是一個規模較小的市場，但你們在那裡的市佔率相當不錯。我想請問一下，你們預期澳洲的天災會對2020年的需求產生任何實際影響嗎？

Well, first of all, our hearts and prayers go out to the people there in the country that have been affected by that, adversely affected to it. But no, I don't think in the longest term that it's going to have any impact to us. We'll continue to be the market leader.

首先，我們向受災的當地民眾致以最深切的慰問和祈禱。但從長遠來看，我認為這不會對我們造成任何影響。我們將繼續保持市場領先地位。

Okay. And then separately, longer term, you talked about it at CES and then again in the release today. The battery-electric trucks expected to hit the market 1 year to 1.5 years from now. Are you, based on your work with the customers, seeing any potential for acceleration in adoption rates versus what you originally expected or is it pretty much on track?

好的。另外，從長遠來看，您在CES上以及今天的發表會上都提到過，電池電動卡車預計將在未來1到1.5年內上市。根據您與客戶的合作，您是否看到其普及率有任何可能比您最初預期的更快，還是基本上符合預期？

I think it's pretty much on track. It has to make commercial sense so will be regulated in. And we have really good partnerships that we're working with to bring the right trucks to the customers. And we will supply them the best trucks, the best alternative powertrain trucks as they need them.

我認為一切進展順利。它必須符合商業邏輯，所以會受到監管。我們與一些合作夥伴建立了良好的合作關係，致力於為客戶提供合適的卡車。我們將根據他們的需求，提供最好的卡車和最佳的替代動力系統卡車。

And then a little bit more detail on that, Preston. Kind of diverging, I think, diverging potential regulations going on between the EPA and CARB. Maybe that's been closed. But is there a potential for a significantly different adoption rate in, let's say, California and associated states versus the rest of the country?

普雷斯頓，關於這一點，我想再補充一些細節。我認為，環保署（EPA）和加州空氣資源委員會（CARB）之間可能存在一些監管分歧。也許這個問題已經解決了。但是，比如說，加州及其周邊州與美國其他地區相比，其法規採納率是否有可能有顯著差異？

There could be. I mean, that can happen. It can happen in Europe that way as well. I think from our standpoint, that's not going to materially affect how we develop the products. What we're going to do is develop the best technologies with the highest performance. And then we will just supply those to the markets that need based upon where the customers are operating.

有可能。我的意思是，這種情況確實會發生。歐洲也可能發生這種情況。但我認為，從我們的角度來看，這不會對我們產品研發產生實質影響。我們將致力於研發最佳表現的尖端技術，然後根據客戶所在市場的具體情況，將這些技術供應給有需求的市場。

There are no other questions in queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有其他補充說明嗎？

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call. And thank you, operator.

感謝各位參與通話。也謝謝接線生。

This concludes today's PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的PACCAR財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以斷開連線了。