帕卡 (PCAR) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加帕卡公司2020年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）本次電話會議正在錄音。 （操作說明）

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我謹介紹帕卡公司投資者關係總監肯‧黑斯廷斯先生。黑斯廷斯先生，請開始。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller.

早安.歡迎各位透過電話和網路直播收聽節目的朋友們。我是PACCAR投資者關係總監肯‧黑斯廷斯。今天早上與我一同出席的還有執行長普雷斯頓·費特、總裁兼首席財務官哈里·希珀斯以及高級副總裁兼財務總監邁克爾·巴克利。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode.

與以往的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有參與電話會議的媒體成員以只聽模式參與。

Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the Investor Relations page of paccar.com.

今天發布的某些資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的總體經濟和競爭狀況。更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及paccar.com網站的投資者關係頁面。

I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

現在我來介紹普雷斯頓費特。

Good morning. Harrie Schippers, Michael Barkley and I will update you on our excellent third quarter results and business highlights.

早安.我和哈里·希珀斯、邁克爾·巴克利將向大家報告我們第三季出色的業績和業務亮點。

First and foremost, I appreciate our outstanding PACCAR employees. They have continued to focus on staying safe and healthy while delivering the highest quality trucks, advanced powertrains and transportation solutions to our customers. PACCAR achieved strong revenues and net income in the third quarter. PACCAR's quarterly truck deliveries doubled to 36,000 vehicles compared to the second quarter of this year.

首先，我要感謝我們傑出的帕卡員工。他們始終專注於保障自身安全和健康，同時為客戶提供最優質的卡車、先進的動力系統和運輸解決方案。帕卡第三季實現了強勁的營收和淨利潤。與今年第二季相比，帕卡第三季的卡車交付量翻了一番，達到36,000輛。

PACCAR's quarterly sales and financial services revenues were $4.9 billion and third quarter net income was $386 million. PACCAR Parts achieved quarterly revenues of over $1 billion and pretax profits of $210 million, exceeding the strong third quarter of last year. Truck, Parts and Other gross margins increased to 12.8%.

帕卡集團第三季​​銷售及金融服務收入達49億美元，淨利為3.86億美元。帕卡零件業務季度收入超過10億美元，稅前利潤達2.1億美元，超過了去年同期強勁的業績。卡車、零件及其他業務的毛利率增加至12.8%。

PACCAR Financial achieved robust new financing business and pretax income of $56 million. U.S. and Canada Class 8 truck industry orders through September were 18% higher than the same period last year. PACCAR expects fourth quarter deliveries to be 10% higher than the third quarter as build rates increase in all markets.

PACCAR Financial 實現了強勁的新融資業務成長，稅前利潤達 5,600 萬美元。截至 9 月份，美國和加拿大 8 級卡車產業的訂單量比去年同期成長了 18%。 PACCAR 預計，隨著所有市場產量的提高，第四季交付量將比第三季成長 10%。

The fourth quarter will have fewer build days in North America and more build days in Europe. Fourth quarter Truck, Parts and Other gross margins are estimated to be in the range of 12% to 13%.

第四季北美地區的生產天數將減少，而歐洲地區的生產天數將增加。預計第四季卡車、零件及其他業務的毛利率將在12%至13%之間。

We have raised our 2020 market size estimates in North America, Europe and South America. We estimate Class 8 industry retail sales in the U.S. and Canada to be in a range of 190,000 to 210,000 trucks this year. Peterbilt and Kenworth have achieved 29.7% market share through September compared to 29.2% for the same period last year.

我們上調了2020年北美、歐洲和南美的市場規模預估值。我們預計今年美國和加拿大8級卡車零售銷售將在19萬至21萬輛之間。截至9月份，彼得比爾特和肯沃斯的市佔率已達29.7%，去年同期為29.2%。

For 2021, U.S. economy is expected to grow about 4%, and we estimate the U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck market to be in the range of 210,000 to 250,000 vehicles. In Europe, truck industry registrations in the above 16-tonne market are estimated to be in a range of 210,000 to 230,000 vehicles this year. DAF has achieved market share of 16.1% through September this year and European economies are projected to grow about 5% next year and we expect truck registrations to increase to a range of 230,000 to 270,000 units.

預計2021年美國經濟成長率約為4%，我們估計美國和加拿大8級卡車市場規模將在21萬至25萬輛之間。在歐洲，預計今年16噸以上卡車市場的註冊量將在21萬至23萬輛之間。截至今年9月，DAF的市佔率已達16.1%。預計明年歐洲經濟成長率將達到5%左右，我們預計卡車註冊量將增加至23萬至27萬輛。

The South American above 16-tonne market is projected to be in a range of 95,000 to 105,000 units next year. DAF Brazil introduced a new XF truck in the third quarter, which has been well received by our customers. In the Brazilian above 40-tonne segment where DAF competes, DAF market share through September increased to a record 9.3%.

預計明年南美洲16噸以上卡車市場銷量將在9.5萬至10.5萬輛之間。 DAF巴西公司在第三季推出了新款XF卡車，受到了客戶的好評。在DAF參與競爭的巴西40噸以上卡車細分市場，截至9月份，DAF的市佔率成長至創紀錄的9.3%。

PACCAR's zero emissions vehicle programs continue to move forward. We have begun accepting orders for our industry-leading battery-electric trucks that will serve the medium duty, regional haul and refuse markets in Europe and North America. Production of these trucks will begin next year. Vehicle charging stations will be available through PACCAR Parts.

PACCAR的零排放車輛計畫持續推進。我們已開始接受業界領先的純電動卡車訂單，這些卡車將服務於歐洲和北美的中型貨車、區域運輸和垃圾清運市場。這些卡車將於明年開始生產。車輛充電站將透過PACCAR Parts提供。

We're pleased to share that PACCAR, Kenworth, Peterbilt, PACCAR Parts and Dynacraft were each recognized as a top company for women to work for in transportation by the Women in Trucking Association. We were honored for excellent working environment and company culture that supports gender diversity. PACCAR is committed to hiring and promoting the most talented people in the world and we know that the best people represent the diversity present in the global community.

我們很高興地宣布，PACCAR、Kenworth、Peterbilt、PACCAR Parts 和 Dynacraft 都被美國卡車運輸女性協會評為運輸業女性最佳雇主。我們因卓越的工作環境和支持性別多元化的企業文化而獲此殊榮。 PACCAR 致力於招募和提拔全球最優秀的人才，我們深知，最優秀的人才正是全球社會多元化的體現。

Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial Services and other business highlights. Thank you. Harrie?

接下來，哈利希珀斯將介紹帕卡零件、帕卡金融服務及其他業務亮點。謝謝。哈里？

Thanks, Preston. PACCAR continues to provide excellent operating cash flow for reinvestment in future growth and distributions to stockholders. Last month, the PACCAR Board of Directors announced a regular quarterly dividend of $0.32 per share. PACCAR Parts achieved quarterly revenues of $1.020 billion and pretax profits of $210 million. PACCAR Parts benefited from the economic recovery, high truck utilization, a growing global distribution network and investments in our state of the art e-commerce platform. E-commerce is PACCAR Part's fastest growing business.

謝謝普雷斯頓。 PACCAR持續提供強勁的營運現金流，用於未來成長的再投資和股東分紅。上個月，PACCAR董事會宣布派發每股0.32美元的季度常規股利。 PACCAR零件業務季度營收達10.2億美元，稅前利潤為2.1億美元。 PACCAR零件業務受益於經濟復甦、卡車高利用率、不斷擴展的全球分銷網絡以及對先進電子商務平台的投資。電子商務是PACCAR零件業務成長最快的業務。

PACCAR Financial Services third quarter revenues were $398 million and pretax income was $56 million. These results reflect strong portfolio performance, low past dues and record used truck sales. Robust used truck sales led to a reduction in used truck inventory. PACCAR financial is increasing its used truck center capacity worldwide, which enhances margins. PACCAR Financial recently opened used truck centers in Lyon, France; Denton, Texas; and in Prague, Czech Republic and plans to open another facility in Madrid, Spain next year.

PACCAR金融服務公司第三季營收為3.98億美元，稅前利潤為5,600萬美元。這些業績反映了強勁的投資組合表現、較低的逾期款項以及創紀錄的二手卡車銷售。二手卡車銷售的強勁成長帶動了二手卡車庫存的減少。 PACCAR金融服務公司正在全球擴大其二手卡車中心的產能，從而提升利潤率。 PACCAR金融服務公司近期在法國里昂、美國德克薩斯州丹頓和捷克共和國布拉格開設了新的二手卡車中心，並計劃明年在西班牙馬德里開設另一個中心。

PACCAR's truck resale values come on a premium over the competition.

PACCAR卡車的轉售價值比競爭對手更高。

Research and development expenses are expected to be in the range of $270 million to $280 million this year. And capital investments are projected to be in the range of $570 million to $600 million. In 2021, we're planning for R&D expenses of $330 million to $360 million and capital investments of $575 million to $625 million. PACCAR is investing for long-term growth in new truck models, low-emission diesel and zero emissions powertrain technologies, advanced driver assistance systems and connected services.

今年研發支出預計在2.7億美元至2.8億美元之間，資本投資預計在5.7億美元至6億美元之間。 2021年，我們計畫研發支出為3.3億美元至3.6億美元，資本投資為5.75億美元至6.25億美元。 PACCAR正致力於投資新型卡車車型、低排放柴油和零排放動力系統技術、高級駕駛輔助系統以及連網服務，以實現長期成長。

And finally, our independent Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF dealers continue to provide outstanding support to our customers. Our dealers are well capitalized and have invested $2.6 billion in their businesses in the last 10 years, making a significant contribution to PACCAR's success.

最後，我們獨立的 Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 經銷商繼續為客戶提供卓越的支援。我們的經銷商資金雄厚，在過去十年中已投資 26 億美元用於業務發展，為 PACCAR 的成功做出了重大貢獻。

Thank you. We'd be pleased to answer your questions.

謝謝。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的妮可·德布萊斯。

I guess, maybe starting with the outlook for 4Q. I know you guys said that you expect build rates to increase across all markets. Is there any way that you could kind of characterize the level of growth that you're seeing in North America versus Europe, given the element of build days?

我想，或許可以先從第四季的展望開始。我知道你們說過預期所有市場的建設速度都會提高。考慮到建設天數這一因素，你們能否大致描述一下北美和歐洲的成長水準有何不同？

Yes, great comments, Nicole. You already captured part of the answer in talking about build days, but we have seen increases in build rates throughout the third quarter and more than doubling from the second quarter. The fourth quarter will also see increases in build rates, daily build rates in all markets. And then from a total delivery standpoint, we'd expect to see a higher number of deliveries in Europe because of the build mix there, where we have more build days in Europe compared to the third quarter where there's the holiday shutdown.

是的，妮可，你的評論很棒。你提到建造天數時已經觸及了部分答案，但我們看到第三季建造速度有所提升，比第二季翻了一番還多。預計第四季所有市場的建造速度和日均建造速度都會持續提升。從總交付量來看，我們預計歐洲的交付量會更高，因為歐洲的建造組合更豐富，而且與第三季度因假日停工的情況相比，歐洲的建造天數更多。

But all markets are seeing increases in build rates as the -- with the strong order intake we've been seeing.

但隨著訂單量的強勁成長，所有市場的產量都在增加。

Got it. Okay. That makes sense. And then just one more on Europe. I mean, obviously, we're all seeing the headlines with respect to COVID cases ramping up. Just curious what you guys have seen most recently with respect to order activity from customers, whether that's been impacted by COVID.

明白了。好的。這說得通。那麼，關於歐洲，我還有一個問題。我的意思是，很明顯，我們都看到了關於新冠病例激增的新聞報導。我只是好奇你們最近觀察到的客戶訂單活動情況如何，是否受到了新冠疫情的影響。

Sure. Well, obviously, we had the same news you do, and we watch the increases in COVID cases, but our customers have really been providing strong order intake for the excellent DAF trucks that we make. We haven't seen any hesitation in orders in recent times has come up. And our factories are doing a great job of making sure that health and safety is the most important thing that we focus on each and every day. So we're able to build trucks in the environment, in a safe and effective way and order intake remains strong.

當然。很顯然，我們和你們一樣也看到了疫情的消息，一直在關注新冠病例的增長，但我們的客戶對我們生產的DAF卡車訂單量一直非常強勁。最近我們沒有看到任何訂單減少的情況。我們的工廠也做得非常出色，始終把健康和安全放在首位。因此，我們能夠在安全且有效率的情況下生產卡車，訂單量也保持強勁。

Our next question comes from the line of Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自富國證券的安迪凱西。

A question on the battery-electric trucks you're introducing next year. I'm wondering if you're accepting orders for those already. The reason I'm asking is the narrative on those type of trucks is that they probably are going to have lower future part sales opportunity than clean diesel equipped trucks. First, is that -- does that jive with your expectations? And then second, can you help us understand how you would approach pricing, given that potential lower future parts revenue stream should you expect to capture kind of a higher-margin upfront? Or anything you could do to help us would be appreciated.

關於您明年即將推出的純電動卡車，我有個問題。我想知道您是否已經開始接受訂單了。我這麼問是因為有傳言說，這類卡車未來的零件銷售機會可能不如清潔柴油卡車。首先，這是否符合您的預期？其次，考慮到未來零件收入可能較低，但您希望在初期獲得更高的利潤，您能否解釋一下您的定價策略？或者，如果您能提供任何幫助，我們將不勝感激。

Sure thing. Well, your first comment about whether we're accepting orders, we are accepting orders, both Peterbilt, Kenworth and DAF are taking orders for the trucks. We expect to begin production next year of the trucks. We are actually providing them to customers already and doing test work with our customers. We're working on battery technology as well as hydrogen fuel cell technology. And in fact, just from a fun thing to share last week, Kenworth and Peterbilt took a hydrogen fuel cell truck and a battery-electric truck. Kenworth was the hydrogen fuel cell, Peterbilt was the battery-electric and they drove them up Pikes Peak all the way to the summit.

當然可以。首先，關於您提到的我們是否接受訂單的問題，答案是肯定的，我們確實在接受訂單，Peterbilt、Kenworth 和 DAF 都已開始接受卡車訂單。我們預計明年開始生產這些卡車。實際上，我們已經開始向客戶提供卡車，並與客戶一起進行測試工作。我們正在研發電池技術和氫燃料電池技術。事實上，上週還有一件趣事想和大家分享：Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 分別駕駛一輛氫燃料電池卡車和一輛純電動卡車，一路開到派克峰頂。 Kenworth 駕駛的是氫燃料電池卡車，Peterbilt 駕駛的是純電動卡車。

So the programs are progressing along nicely. The team is having a lot of fun developing excellent products and we're looking forward to that market developing. It is early days. And so from a standpoint of how many orders, it could be in the hundreds. When we look at your question of parts sales and what we think looking forward, I think there's going to be plenty of parts that go along with electric vehicles for a while. And one way to think about it is the cost of a battery pack is pretty significant, it's a contributing factor to a cost of an electric vehicle. And somewhere in a lifetime, a battery pack could be replaced. They also have the same suspension components, the same steering components, and they will have wear items, just like every other truck does.

所以專案進展順利。團隊在開發優秀產品的過程中樂在其中，我們期待市場的發展。現在還處於早期階段。因此，從訂單數量來看，可能只有幾百份。至於您提到的零件銷售以及我們對未來的展望，我認為在一段時間內，電動車的零件供應將會非常足夠。電池組的成本相當高，它是電動車成本的重要組成部分。而且，電池組在車輛的使用壽命中是需要更換的。電動車也和其他卡車一樣，擁有相同的懸吊部件、轉向部件以及易損件。

So I think that the pricing of how we'll do that will be based on cost and good margins. And Harrie?

所以我認為，我們的定價策略將基於成本和合理的利潤率。哈里呢？

Well, in addition to the trucks, that we will also be selling chargers and also the chargers will need replacement parts.

除了卡車之外，我們還會銷售充電器，而充電器也需要更換零件。

So the total of all of that, I think, is that I don't think it's going to be disruptive to our model. I think it could even be helpful to our model for the coming period of time.

綜上所述，我認為它不會對我們的模式造成乾擾。我認為在接下來的這段時間裡，它甚至可能對我們的模式有所幫助。

Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Stephen Volkmann。

Maybe just sort of sticking with that, but broadening it out a little bit. Sometimes I get questions around just how do you view kind of R&D spending for the next few years? And some people seem to think maybe others are spending more. I know your business model is a little bit more outsourced, a little bit more partner-driven. But maybe you can just talk about how we should view your level of R&D spending over the next few years as we kind of make this transition.

或許可以繼續沿用之前的思路，但稍微拓展一下。我有時會被問到，您如何看待未來幾年的研發投入？有些人似乎認為其他公司可能會投入更多。我知道您的商業模式更偏向外包和合作夥伴驅動。但或許您可以談談，在我們進行這種轉型之際，我們該如何看待您未來幾年的研發投入水準。

Well, we always make sure that we invest appropriately for the opportunities that we have. And I think our history has demonstrated a great set of investments that have been good for our customers and we always think about it from a customer standpoint. And I can tell you what, I've never been more excited than I am right now about the kind of products we're bringing out over the coming year or 2. And going forward, for the next 5-year strategy we've laid out, we have a great set of products coming out. So the spending may increase a little bit, as Harrie showed or commented on, we could see $330 million to $360 million in R&D spending next year. But a real focus on making sure that our customers get the very best trucks, transportation solutions and parts and it's never been better than right now.

我們始終確保根據自身機會進行適當的投資。我認為，過往的投資經驗已經證明，這些投資對我們的客戶大有裨益，我們始終從客戶的角度出發思考問題。我可以坦白說，我對未來一兩年即將推出的產品感到無比興奮。展望未來，根據我們制定的五年策略，我們將推出一系列優秀的產品。正如哈里所指出的，研發支出可能會略有增加，明年研發投入可能達到3.3億至3.6億美元。但我們真正關注的是確保客戶獲得最優質的卡車、運輸解決方案和零件，而現在正是最佳時機。

Okay. All right. And then just a quick follow-up. I appreciate your initial views on '21. I'm just curious relative to kind of inventories, I know you guys aren't big on inventories, but would you expect to produce more next year than whatever the retail sales turns out to be? Or would you sort of produce in line with that, do you think?

好的。好的。還有一個後續問題。我很欣賞您對2021年的初步看法。我只是好奇關於庫存方面的問題，我知道你們不太重視庫存，但你們預計明年的產量會超過零售額嗎？還是會與零售額基本持平？

If you start with where we're at now, there's 2.5 months of industry inventory out there and PACCAR, can repeat, will have about 2.2 months. And so when I look at that and I think about what the order intake looks like, build rates intake, I think it will be roughly in line, could be a little bit more production, but not too much.

如果從目前的情況來看，產業庫存大約夠供應2.5個月，而PACCAR的庫存大約夠供應2.2個月。因此，當我考慮到訂單量和生產進度時，我認為大致會保持穩定，產量可能會略有增加，但不會太多。

Our next question comes from the line of Ross Gilardi with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅斯·吉拉迪。

Maybe we'll stay on the EV topic. If you look out 5 years, do you have an expectation that you can share of EVs as a percentage of either Class 8 or Class 6, 7 production?

或許我們可以繼續討論電動車的話題。展望未來五年，您預期電動車在8級或6、7級卡車產量中所佔的比例是多少？

Sure. We think is the way this market is going to develop, Ross, is it's going to be hundreds kind of next year. And then we'll get to a point in 2024 and 2025, where there's some regulatory requirements for production. And by that time, we should see ourselves in the thousands, low thousands. And it will obviously depend on what kind of regulatory environment develops throughout Europe or California.

當然。羅斯，我們認為這個市場的發展趨勢是，明年大概會幾百台。然後到了2024年和2025年，隨著一些生產監管要求的出台，我們的產量應該會達到數千台。當然，這最終取決於歐洲或加州的監管環境會如何發展。

And what we want to make sure we have is the products that are ready to go and the most reliable and capable products. And so that's the path we're on. So we'll be ready if there's -- ready for thousands or stays at hundreds. And if it wants to go to tens of thousands, we'll be prepared for that.

我們希望確保提供的產品隨時可用，並且是最可靠、性能最強的產品。這就是我們努力的方向。所以，無論需求量是幾千台還是幾百台，我們都能做好準備。如果需求量達到數萬台，我們也做好了充分的準備。

So low thousands by 2024, '25 on a 250,000 replacement market, you're talking like 1% of the market by then?

所以到 2024 年、2025 年，在 25 萬台的替換市場中，數量只有幾千台，你指的是到那時只佔市場份額的 1% 左右嗎？

Yes, that's it. Yes.

對，就是這樣。是的。

Okay. And how about Class 8 versus 6, 7 because certainly in a battery up until now has been a bigger technical challenge? But of course, you're working on hydrogen fuel cell as well. So what are your thoughts there?

好的。那麼，8級電池和6級、7級電池相比如何呢？因為到目前為止，電池技術無疑面臨更大的挑戰。當然，你們也在研究氫燃料電池。那麼，你們對氫燃料電池有什麼看法呢？

So thinking is there, as you mentioned well, Ross, it will be medium-duty and urban environments where trucks return back to a fixed location, fixed operation is an easy place for adoption to begin. But if there are places like in Europe where cities might not allow a diesel truck in, then that will mean regional haul trucks could end up being battery-electric. And then as fuel cells become viable and commercially relevant, then they could play a role also. So I think right now, what we're doing is making sure that we look at a range of full capabilities and technology choices out there and integrating them in an effective way for our customers.

正如你所提到的，羅斯，我們確實在考慮這個問題。中型卡車和城市環境，尤其是那些返回固定地點的卡車，更容易推廣應用。但如果像歐洲一樣，某些城市禁止柴油卡車進入，那麼區域運輸卡車最終可能會採用純電動。隨著燃料電池技術變得可行且具有商業價值，它們也能發揮作用。所以我認為，我們現在正在做的是，確保我們全面了解各種功能和技術選擇，並以有效的方式將它們整合起來，為我們的客戶服務。

Got it. And then can you talk a little bit about just how you see the shape of the cycle evolving next couple of years with the explosion of e-commerce? Not that e-commerce is a new thing, but clearly, we're all seeing the numbers for e-commerce. And kind of the way I'm thinking of it, if North America Class 8 replacement is normally 225,000 to 250,000, are we at a higher number now because of the environment we're in? And then also on top of that, is there any motivation for the company to move down market into the light-duty space to capitalize on more of the growth in things like delivery vans and last mile?

明白了。那麼，您能否談談隨著電子商務的蓬勃發展，您如何看待未來幾年市場週期的演變？電子商務並非新鮮事物，但顯然，我們都看到了電子商務帶來的數據成長。我的理解是，如果北美8級卡車的替換需求通常在225,000到25萬輛之間，那麼由於目前的市場環境，我們現在的需求量是否更高了？此外，公司是否有動機向輕型卡車市場拓展，以更好地掌握送貨車和最後一公里配送等領域的成長機會？

Well, I think that as e-commerce comes along, it's not going to affect the fact that people consume on an individual basis, the same amount of goods. It's maybe it's how those goods are delivered, but there'll still be manufacturing and distribution. And I don't think that will fundamentally or structurally change any way from a Class 6 through 8 market. I would share that we have some amazing products in that Class 6 market space right now with our cabover products here in North America. It's also the market leader in the U.K. for that cabover LF. And we have some early need products we're developing to fill in and continue to develop the medium-duty space for ourselves in the coming years.

我認為，隨著電子商務的發展，人們的個人消費量不會改變。或許會改變商品的配送方式，但生產和分銷仍不可或缺。我不認為6級到8級卡車市場會從根本或結構上發生任何變化。我想分享的是，目前我們在北美市場擁有一些非常出色的6級卡車產品，尤其是我們的平頭卡車產品。在英國，我們的平頭輕型卡車產品也處於市場領先地位。此外，我們正在開發一些滿足市場早期需求的產品，以填補市場空白，並在未來幾年繼續拓展中型卡車市場。

Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Jamie Cook。

I guess, 2 questions. My first question, as we think about 2021, can you talk about your confidence level in terms of market outgrowth, whether it be on the parts side, market share on truck or the 11- and 13-liter engine? Just how we should think about that as markets recover? And then my second question, can you comment, was there any sort of mix or pricing dynamics in the third quarter? What you saw on that front?

我想問兩個問題。第一個問題是，展望2021年，您能否談談您對市場成長的信心程度，包括零件市場、卡車市場份額以及11公升和13公升引擎市場？隨著市場復甦，我們該如何看待這些問題？第二個問題是，您能否談談第三季的產品組合或價格動態？您在這方面觀察到了什麼？

So just to start with, if you think about share, we've got 29.7% of the market share in the U.S. and Canada right now year-to-date compared to 29.2%. So we're seeing good share growth for ourselves. Our MX engines are doing a great job out there with the 11-liter and the 13-liter. Of course, it's 100% of our engine volume in Europe and is 41% in North America. So that's working really well for us in addition. And then from a...

首先，從市佔率來看，我們目前在美國和加拿大的市佔率為29.7%，高於去年同期的29.2%。因此，我們的市場佔有率成長勢頭良好。我們的MX系列發動機，尤其是11升和13升的型號，表現非常出色。當然，在歐洲，MX系列引擎的銷量占我們引擎總銷量的100%，在北美則佔41%。因此，MX系列引擎的銷量對我們來說也相當可觀。另外…

From a pricing point of view, the pricing in the third quarter was more or less slightly down like 0.5% or so, but pretty good performance in terms of pricing, given the current market dynamics.

從定價角度來看，第三季的定價略微下降了約 0.5%，但考慮到目前的市場動態，定價表現相當不錯。

And that's compared to a very strong 2019.

而且這還是與表現非常強勁的 2019 年相比。

Absolutely. Absolutely.

當然。當然。

Our next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的安·杜伊尼安。

Just a few follow-up questions. In Financial Services, on the interest expense line, that was higher than we had expected. Can you just talk about that line item and what was in there? Were there any anomalies? Or is that kind of the runway rate that we should look at going forward?

還有一些後續問題。在金融服務方面，利息支出高於我們的預期。能否詳細介紹一下這一項以及具體內容？是否存在任何異常情況？或者這是否是我們未來應該關注的正常水平？

In the third quarter, Jamie, we sold a record number of used trucks and the cost of those used trucks appear in that line item. And used truck results were unfavorable compared to last year, but they were very similar to the second quarter. Overall, the finance company is doing really well. You saw low credit losses. We have low past dues of only 0.6% at the end of the third quarter. Good portfolio, A and B credits, customers continue to pay their bills, finance company is doing really well.

傑米，第三季我們二手卡車的銷量創下歷史新高，這些二手卡車的成本都計入了該項。二手卡車的業績與去年同期相比並不理想，但與第二季基本持平。整體而言，金融公司營運狀況良好。信貸損失率很低。截至第三季末，我們的逾期帳款率僅為0.6%。投資組合良好，A級和B級信用評級都很高，客戶也持續按時還款，金融公司營運狀況非常出色。

But are you saying that if that was a higher expense than the last couple of quarters that you're recording a loss on each sale of a used truck? And so more used truck sales means a higher loss? Or a higher expense?

但您的意思是，如果這筆費用比前幾季高，那麼每賣出一輛二手卡車，您都要記為虧損嗎？所以二手卡車銷售越高，虧損就越多？還是費用越多？

Yes, Ann. Like in the second quarter, results on used trucks were unfavorable. It was nice to see that the used truck inventory came down during the third quarter. So that's going to be good going forward.

是的，安。和第二季一樣，二手卡車的業績也不盡人意。令人欣慰的是，第三季二手卡車庫存有所下降。這對未來的發展是個好兆頭。

And we're starting to see that in some of these trucks areas where people are looking for great products, they're starting to see pricing increases. And Peterbilt, Kenworth, DAF, they continue to provide a premium resell value in our used truck business compared to the competition.

我們開始看到，在一些卡車市場，人們追求的是優質產品，而這些地區的卡車價格也開始上漲。與競爭對手相比，Peterbilt、Kenworth 和 DAF 等品牌的卡車在我們的二手車市場中仍然保持著較高的轉售價值。

Yes. But if everybody's used prices are down, it's kind of relative to (inaudible).

是的。但如果所有二手商品的價格都下降了，那就有點相對於（聽不清楚）而言了。

Yes, we get a premium on the used trucks, but yes, we're not the only one in the used truck market.

是的，我們出售二手卡車可以獲得溢價，但是，我們並不是二手卡車市場上唯一的公司。

Exactly. And then can you just explain a little bit more or talk a little bit more about the e-commerce business in parts? Give us a little bit more color on what's going on there. You highlighted it in your opening comments. I'd like to hear it more.

沒錯。您能否再詳細解釋電子商務業務的各個面向？給我們詳細介紹一下這方面的情況。您在開場白中提到了這一點，我很想了解更多。

Sure thing, Ann. I mean, we've had e-commerce for a long time, but our PACCAR Parts team did a fantastic job of creating a real user-friendly, easy to use for customers and dealers e-commerce system that just makes ordering easier, but it also makes related parts easier so that it's quite simple to go in and find if you buy a filter for something, it might also point you towards another component. So the team has done a great job of making a very easy user interface. And we've seen significant growth in the amount of e-commerce we're doing. It's one of the fast -- it is the fastest-growing part of our Parts business as people transition there. So that's really nice.

當然可以，安。我的意思是，我們開展電子商務已經很久了，但我們的 PACCAR 零件團隊做得非常出色，他們創造了一個真正用戶友好、易於使用的電子商務系統，方便客戶和經銷商使用。這個系統不僅簡化了訂購流程，也讓尋找相關零件變得更容易。例如，如果您購買了一個濾清器，系統可能還會推薦其他元件，這樣找起來就非常方便。所以，團隊在打造一個非常易用的使用者介面方面做得非常棒。而且，我們的電子商務業務量也顯著成長。隨著越來越多的人轉向電子商務，它已成為我們零件業務中成長最快的部分之一。這真是太好了。

I'd also just give a shout out to the Parts team for the way they're engaging with the dealers on auto except for dealer inventory stocking. So they're doing a fantastic job on that front, too. And I think both those things, plus the support of how the team is supporting our customers is leading to their growth.

我還要特別表揚一下零件團隊，他們在汽車零件方面與經銷商的合作非常出色，尤其是在經銷商庫存管理方面。他們在這一領域也做得非常棒。我認為，這兩點，再加上團隊對客戶的支持，共同促成了他們的發展。

And so the way for us to think about that business going forward is there's opportunity for a -- more customers to use e-commerce and then be a higher spend per customer? Is it -- are there 2 opportunities there? Is that the right way for us to think about it? And then I'll give it back.

所以，我們展望未來發展這項業務的方式是：有機會吸引更多顧客使用電子商務，從而提高每位顧客的消費額？這算是機會嗎？我們這樣思考是否正確？然後我會把問題回饋給你。

Great wording, Ann. I agree with you, yes.

安，你措辭真好。是的，我同意你的看法。

Our next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

What really jumped out this quarter was your SG&A performance, like you mentioned, production nearly doubled, your SG&A was up just 7% sequentially. How should we think about the SG&A run rate from here? Any cost that we should think about as coming back in better times? Or is this a situation where we're actually going to be able to run rate this level of SG&A going forward?

本季最引人注目的是你們的銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）表現。正如您所說，產量幾乎翻了一番，而SG&A環比僅增長了7%。我們該如何看待未來的SG&A運作率？有哪些成本預計在經濟好轉時會回落？或者說，我們是否能夠長期維持目前的SG&A水準？

Well, I think the team has done a fantastic job of cost control, as always, right? We look at everything we do and spend where it's necessary. So I think there will be some modest increases as we get into the fourth quarter. Just a for example, if you think about travel, right, getting anywhere internationally has been relatively limited. So when that opens up or as travel reopens, that will become a possibility for SG&A increases.

我認為團隊在成本控制方面做得非常出色，一如既往，對吧？我們會仔細檢視每一筆支出，只在必要的地方花錢。所以我認為進入第四季度後，費用可能會略有上漲。舉個例子，就差差而言，目前國際旅行相對受限。因此，一旦國際旅遊恢復，銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）就有可能上漲。

Okay. And then in terms of your electric vehicle lineup, really impressive range of products that you folks have available for order. You're obviously, skewing on the local range. One of your new competitors is laying out a 500-mile product at 180,000. Can you just talk about your decision not to lay out a product within that mileage range and how feasible do you think that cost point is if we're talking about 5 years out for the industry as a whole? Can you weigh in?

好的。接下來談談你們的電動車產品線，你們提供的可訂購產品種類確實非常豐富。顯然，你們的產品主要針對本地市場。你們的一位新競爭對手推出了一款續航里程達 500 英里、售價 18 萬美元的產品。你們能否談談為什麼沒有推出續航里程如此之高的產品？如果從整個產業五年後的發展來看，你們認為這個價格點是否可行？能否分享一下你們的看法？

Sure, happily. I do think, as I said earlier, that the urban areas will be the easiest places to make a cost-effective decision around battery-electric vehicles. And I think in the battery-electric space, for the regional home markets and the refuse market, that's also an opportunity, again, where you're coming back to a charging station.

當然，我很樂意。正如我之前所說，我認為城市地區最容易在電池電動車方面做出經濟有效的決策。而且我認為，在電池電動車領域，對於區域家用市場和垃圾處理市場來說，這也是一個機遇，因為最終還是要回到充電站。

When you get into the longer lengths of haul, especially a number like 500 miles, you're talking about needing a significant charging infrastructure. And you also have to realize that the weight of the batteries become significant to the total operating efficiency of the haul. So we think that it will evolve in a rational manner and we'll participate in that. And that's why we look at both the battery electric and the hydrogen fuel cells because battery-electric will be rational for some of the routes we just described. And potentially, fuel cell will take off on some of the longer haul, but it also needs an infrastructure.

當運輸距離較長時，尤其是像500英里這樣的長途運輸，就需要大量的充電基礎設施。此外，電池的重量也會顯著影響運輸的整體運作效率。因此，我們認為這項技術會朝著合理的方向發展，而我們也會參與其中。這就是為什麼我們同時關注純電動和氫燃料電池的原因，因為純電動對於我們剛才提到的一些路線來說是合理的選擇。而氫燃料電池在某些長途運輸中可能會發展，但它同樣需要相應的基礎設施。

So we just want to make sure that we're there with the right products for our customers. And as they want them, we'll have them.

所以，我們只想確保為客戶提供合適的產品。只要他們需要，我們就會提供。

Okay. And lastly, the CARB regulations for 2024 look for pretty meaningful increases in warranties and big reductions in NOx. Can you talk about your plan for those standards? And how much does the cost structure have to move higher? Some industry participants are talking about the warranty cost being over $10,000 essentially adding to the cost of a truck. Can you just talk about how you see it playing out and your plans for the standards?

好的。最後，加州空氣資源委員會 (CARB) 2024 年的法規預計將大幅提高保固費用並大幅降低氮氧化物排放。您能否談談您針對這些標準的計劃？成本結構需要上漲多少？一些業內人士提到，保固費用可能超過 1 萬美元，這實際上會增加卡車的成本。您能否談談您對這種情況的看法以及您針對這些標準的計劃？

Well, we've been through a lot of emission cycles as we've gone through the decades now. And as an industry and certainly as PACCAR, we're always able to meet them. We intend to be able to meet them as well. We do expect that the warranty requirements change, and that just does -- that's an accrual rate. So we'll make the right accrual rates for that. But we believe in our technical capabilities for both us and our partners in Cummins to develop great engines and powertrains that will meet the diesel emissions requirements for the coming decade. And as we've talked a lot about already today, we'll have a complementary set of products in the electric vehicle space and hybrid space.

幾十年來，我們經歷了許多排放週期。作為整個產業，當然也包括帕卡集團，我們始終能夠滿足排放標準。我們也計劃繼續保持這一目標。我們預計保固要求會發生變化，而這確實會影響到累積率。因此，我們會制定相應的累積率。我們相信，憑藉我們和康明斯合作夥伴的技術能力，我們能夠開發出卓越的引擎和動力系統，滿足未來十年柴油車的排放標準。正如我們今天已經多次提到的，我們將在電動車和混合動力汽車領域推出一系列互補產品。

And is that $10,000-plus number increase in the cost of a vehicle, is that reasonable? Can you just weigh in on that aspect? How material is the cost increase to that customer?

車輛價格上漲超過1萬美元，合理嗎？您能否就此發表一下看法？對客戶而言，成本上漲的影響有多大？

And Jerry, I don't think that it would be appropriate at this point. It's pretty early days, and we have a lot of great people working on those things, and we'll figure out ways to manage that cost to the lowest level possible.

傑瑞，我覺得現在說這些還不合適。現在還處於早期階段，我們有很多優秀的人才在做這些事情，我們會想辦法把成本控制在最低。

Our next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

So my question relates to just trying to think through the gross margin profile for 2021. In the third quarter and first quarter this year, you delivered 36,000 and 38,000 trucks, respectively. And you're anticipating 39,000 to 40,000 deliveries next quarter, the fourth quarter. And during the middle of last decade, when you were delivering similar volumes each quarter, gross margins were pretty comfortably between 14% and 15%. And this year, in those quarters, including what you're forecasting for the fourth quarter, they're only between 12% and 13%. I would assume addressing cost and manufacturing volatility due to the pandemic could account for maybe all that 200 basis points for lower gross margins, even though Parts is a bigger piece of the revenue today than 5 years ago?

所以我的問題是關於2021年毛利率的分析。今年第三季和第一季度，你們分別交付了36,000輛和38,000輛卡車。你們預計第四季（下個季度）的交付量將達到39,000至40,000輛。而十年前中期，當你們每季的交付量與此類似時，毛利率穩定在14%至15%之間。但今年，包括你們預測的第四季在內，毛利率僅為12%至13%。我猜想，由於疫情導致的成本和生產波動，毛利率下降了這200個基點，即使零件收入在總收入中所佔的比例比五年前更高，這是否也是原因之一？

So that all said, I'm just trying to think about for 2021, just trying to think through likely quarterly delivery volumes. Should we expect a return to the relationship of usual where volumes are and gross margins? Or is there something about incremental cost or sales mix for '21 that we really should consider moving off that traditional relationship of volume and gross margin?

綜上所述，我只是想展望一下2021年，思考一下可能的季度交付量。我們是否應該預期銷售量和毛利率會恢復到以往的水準？或者，2021年的增量成本或銷售組合是否會帶來一些變化，導致我們偏離傳統的銷售量與毛利率之間的關係？

Well, two-part answer to your question, David, thanks for the question, good discussion, is when you think about our market sizes right now that we're talking about, we're coming off of the second quarter, as you know well, was pretty quiet. We're returning to some more increased rates. So if this year is 190 to 210, we think next year in the U.S., Canada could be in that 210 to 250 range. It's still below replacement value. So it's still not a giant market, it's a healthy market.

好的，David，你的問題可以分成兩部分來回答。謝謝你的提問，討論很精彩。就我們目前討論的市場規模而言，正如你所知，第二季市場相對平靜。現在價格又開始漲了。如果今年的價格在190到210之間，我們認為明年美國和加拿大的價格可能會在210到250之間。目前的價格仍然低於重置成本。所以市場規模雖然不算巨大，但整體來說是個健康的市場。

And I think there's a lot of uncertainty around what next year will bring in terms of the general economy and COVID and protocols we have in place from a labor control standpoint and making sure our employees are safe and cared for. So I think it's a little bit early to be kind of weighing in on what next year's full margins might likely be.

我認為明年整體經濟情勢、新冠疫情以及我們從勞動力控制角度製定的各項規程（確保員工安全和福祉）都存在諸多不確定性。因此，現在就預測明年的利潤率可能達到多少還為時過早。

Should I take that, though, because if volumes are similar to a prior period, I mean, the volumes are the same. Is it a function of it's simply about price cost? And obviously, the more robust the market is, the better you can do on price. And it was also efficient for any mix. I'm just trying to understand, 200 basis points this year was not a normal year. So I'm not saying the margin should be as high as 5 years ago with these volumes. I'm just trying to think if we can move through this, just kind of framework something to think about for '21. And it sounds like you're saying all volumes aren't created equal. And it's not necessarily due to mix, but it's more the robustness of the market where maybe you can get a little better price or not. Is that a fair generalization?

不過，我該接受這個結論嗎？因為如果銷量與前期相似，我的意思是，銷量確實相同。這是否僅取決於價格成本？顯然，市場越強勁，價格優勢就越明顯。而且，無論產品組合如何，這種模式都是有效的。我只是想弄清楚，今年200個基點的利潤率並不正常。所以我並不是說，在這樣的銷售下，利潤率應該要跟五年前一樣高。我只是想思考，我們能否渡過難關，為2021年制定一個思考框架。聽起來您似乎在說，並非所有銷售量都具有相同的價值。這不一定取決於產品組合，更多的是取決於市場的強勁程度，市場強勁程度決定了價格是否更優。這種概括是否合理？

Yes. I think that's a fair generalization. And I think the other way to think of it is, as we look historically and even right now, PACCAR always delivers the best industry's highest operating margins, and we'll continue to focus on delivering that.

是的，我認為這是一個合理的概括。而且我認為換個角度來看，無論從歷史角度或現在來看，PACCAR始終保持著業界最高的營業利潤率，我們將繼續致力於實現這一目標。

I appreciate it. One last quick question. Delivery lead times. Obviously, orders are ramping up a bit. But can you give us a sense of where delivery lead times today, say, particularly at a Denton and Chillicothe versus this time last year? Just a rough idea in, say, a number of weeks?

非常感謝。最後一個問題，關於交貨週期。顯然，訂單量正在增加。您能否大致說明一下，例如，在丹頓和奇利科西這兩個地方，目前的交貨週期與去年同期相比如何？大概需要幾週？

Sure. Happy to do that. We're looking at -- on filling in just the final slots in the fourth quarter. We're substantially full in both the U.S. and Europe. There are a few slots in that late November-December time frame. They're moving quickly, and we're really kind of getting our attention focused into the first part of next year.

當然可以，我很樂意。我們正在著手填補第四季的最後幾個空缺。目前我們在美國和歐洲的職位基本上都已招滿。 11月底到12月期間還有一些空缺，這些空缺正在迅速被填補，我們現在主要把精力集中在明年上半年。

And how would you compare that versus this time last year?

那麼，您覺得今年的情況與去年同期相比如何？

Well, I think they're totally different markets. Last year, at this point, we're coming off of a very strong market and coming into a more normalized market, I think. And now we're looking at the beginning of an acceleration in the market.

嗯，我認為這是完全不同的市場。去年這個時候，我們剛結束一個非常強勁的市場，現在正進入一個更正常的市場。而現在，我們正看到市場開始加速成長。

Our next question comes from the line of Joel Tiss with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Joel Tiss。

Most of them have been answered. I wondered if you think you're going to be, just in your model and the way things are sort of laid out, you think you're going to be close to breakeven by that 2025 in electric? Or you think it's going to take a little longer than that?

大部分問題都已解答。我想問的是，根據你們的模型和目前的規劃，你們認為到2025年電動車業務能否接近損益平衡點？還是說需要更長時間？

We like to make money in everything we do, Joel. And so I think that our angle is to do that. It's early days, but our focus is always to build great products, provide great services to our customers and make money doing it. And that's our model for EV just as well as it is for anything else we do.

喬爾，我們做任何事都想賺錢。所以我覺得我們的目標就是要做到這一點。現在還處於早期階段，但我們的重點始終是打造優秀的產品，為客戶提供優質的服務，並從中獲利。這不僅適用於我們所做的任何事，也適用於電動車領域。

And are you seeing any sort of outsized market share opportunities with one of your bigger competitors being a little distracted? Or it's just sort of business as usual?

您是否看到某個大型競爭對手暫時分心，從而為您帶來任何巨大的市場份額機會？還是一切照舊？

We think that we can just share with the customers how great our trucks are and especially things we're developing that are coming out in the coming years that, that will take care of market share for us. We just want to make sure we get them to understand how fantastic the performance is of these products we're creating.

我們認為，只要向客戶展示我們卡車的卓越性能，特別是我們正在研發並將在未來幾年推出的新產品，就能幫助我們贏得市場份額。我們只想確保他們了解我們這些產品的性能有多出色。

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

Just to -- just want to follow-up on David Raso's question, but more in the near-term rather than 2021, the margins in Q4, it sounds like on the 10% increase in deliveries, but the flat margin. Can you just talk about what some of the puts and takes in the near-term are within that, keeping the margin flat on higher volume?

我想就David Raso的問題做個後續，但更關注近期而非2021年。關於第四季的利潤率，聽起來像是交付量成長了10%，但利潤率卻保持不變。您能否談談在銷售成長的情況下，短期內保持利潤率不變的幾個可能因素？

Yes, we think that, that 12% to 13% is good margin performance for where we're sitting in the market sizes that we're dealing with, but just a couple of the puts and takes as in the fourth quarter, there are more build days in Europe compared to North America. And there's a mix shift in -- as trucks increase compared to parts. And so those are 2 factors that weigh into that fourth quarter margin. But we still believe that our focus is on providing the industry's best operating margins, and we expect to do so.

是的，我們認為，就我們目前的市場規模而言，12%到13%的利潤率表現良好。但第四季也存在一些不確定因素，例如歐洲的生產日數高於北美，以及卡車產量相對於零件產量的增加。這些因素都會對第四季的利潤率產生影響。不過，我們仍然致力於提供業界最佳的營運利潤率，並且我們有信心實現這一目標。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just curious how much is timing within the order book shifting around right now and in what direction? I'm wondering to what extent you're seeing orders either getting accelerated or getting pushed out. I imagine there might be some different dynamics within some of the different end markets that you're serving, be it on-highway or vocational construction, et cetera. I'm curious where it all nets out if you're seeing people actually wanting trucks earlier or if you're trying to push them out a little -- people are pushing them out a little further?

好的，這很有幫助。我還想問一下，目前訂單的交貨時間安排發生了多大的變化，變化方向是什麼？我想知道訂單的交付速度是加快了還是推遲了。我想，你們服務的不同終端市場，例如公路運輸或專業建築等，可能會有一些不同的情況。我想知道最終結果如何：客戶是否真的希望提前拿到卡車，還是你們正在努力將交付時間推遲一些——客戶是否希望將交付時間推遲一些？

What we see is nothing really related to push-outs right now. And what we see is that the trucking economy is doing pretty well in most of its sectors. So the refrigerated carriers are doing well, the housing people in support of vocational markets are doing well. The consumer goods markets are doing well, and this is true for both Europe and North America. And people have been running their trucks at a below replacement value or replacement market size for a year. And so the opportunities that -- they're ready for the excellent performing high fuel efficiency, high reliability trucks that we're building now. And so there's no real push-outs happening, it's people that are ordering to support their businesses, which are doing really well.

我們目前看到的並非任何形式的強制淘汰。卡車運輸業在大多數領域都表現良好。冷藏運輸業務蓬勃發展，為職業培訓市場提供支援的住房運輸業務也表現良好。消費品市場同樣表現良好，歐洲和北美的情況都是如此。過去一年，卡車的營運成本一直低於市場重置成本或重置市場規模。因此，他們已經準備好迎接我們現在生產的高性能、高燃油效率和高可靠性的卡車。所以，並沒有出現真正的強制淘汰，而是客戶為了支持自身業務而下單，而他們的業務目前發展勢頭良好。

And any accelerations?

是否存在加速度？

Yes. There's been growth in orders as obvious over the last quarter or so, and it continues to be appropriate to the market sizes that we're sitting in.

是的。過去一個季度左右，訂單量明顯成長，而且這一成長與我們目前所處的市場規模相符。

Our next question comes from the line of Chad Dillard with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自查德·迪拉德和伯恩斯坦的對話。

So can you talk a little bit more about your strategy of providing charging infrastructure for the battery electric vehicles? If you could touch on the scope, just how big of an investment do you need to get to that, I guess, at that low thousands that you're talking about in 2024? And I know that PACCAR is providing, but is the cost included in the actual price to the consumer? Or is this more of an investment at PACCAR in what still needs to be made to get that market to scale?

那麼，您能否再詳細談談貴公司為純電動車提供充電基礎設施的策略？能否談談規模，例如，要達到您所說的2024年每千美元的規模，需要多大的投資？我知道PACCAR公司正在提供充電基礎設施，但這些成本是否已包含在消費者的最終售價中？或者，這更多是PACCAR公司為擴大市場規模所需進行的投資？

I think the way to think about charging is that you need a charger for your vehicle or for every 2 vehicles, depending on how you operate. And so that's something that we'll develop as the vehicle park increases. It will probably be through our dealerships who are doing a great job of kind of preparing themselves for the industry. But it will also be through our customers who are operating, as I said, in locally domiciled routes. And then I think there will be a more general development of the charging infrastructure that goes along.

我認為充電問題的解決方案在於，根據您的運作方式，您需要為每輛車配備一個充電樁，或每兩輛車配備一個。隨著車輛保有量的增加，我們將逐步完善充電設施。這可能主要透過我們的經銷商來實現，他們正在為行業發展做好充分準備。但正如我所說，我們的客戶，尤其是那些在本地運作的客戶，也會積極參與其中。我認為，隨著車輛保有量的增加，充電基礎設施也將得到更廣泛的發展。

And again, one way to think about charging stations is they're kind of going to be $150,000 or a couple of hundred thousand dollars to put in a charging infrastructure station for yourself. So that is going to be something where people are having to spend money on. And PACCAR Parts is selling them now, and our financial companies are offering support of that. So kind of have created an entire model for the customers as we move into that new opportunity.

再說一遍，充電站的安裝成本可能高達15萬到幾十萬美元，所以人們必須為此投入資金。 PACCAR Parts現在正在銷售充電站，我們的金融公司也提供相關支援。因此，我們已經為客戶打造了一整套模式，以迎接這項新的機會。

Got it. That's helpful. And then can you just provide color on the engine parts mix versus other parts of the business in the quarter? And how close are we to seeing that inflection point where your engines sold several years ago actually could start consuming more parts? And how do you think about that from like a gross margin mix perspective as we look towards the next year?

明白了，這很有幫助。接下來，您能否詳細說明本季引擎零件與其他業務板塊的構成對比？我們距離幾年前售出的引擎開始消耗更多零件的拐點還有多遠？展望明年，您如何看待毛利率組成的問題？

I think there continues to be -- we started the engine in the North American market in 2010. So people have gone through, obviously, a build cycle of it. We've got repeat customers that are seeing over that span growth in the engine business, and it provides great parts return.

我認為這種趨勢仍在持續存在——我們於2010年在北美市場啟動了這項引擎業務。顯然，人們已經經歷了一個生產週期。我們擁有回頭客，他們在這段時間看到了引擎業務的成長，零件的回收率也很高。

And it's fair to say that the engine parts business has grown faster than our average parts business. So we do get benefits from that going forward, too.

可以肯定地說，引擎零件業務的成長速度超過了我們零件業務的平均水準。因此，我們未來也將從中受益。

Our next question comes from the line of Seth Weber with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的塞思·韋伯。

Nice to see the Parts revenue turn positive here in the quarter. I was wondering if you could just give any color on the cadence there. I think you had previously said June was running, I think, down mid-single digits. Should we -- is the right way to think about it that September was up kind of mid- to high singles? Is that a fair way to think about the ramp?

很高興看到零件業務收入在本季轉正。我想請您具體說明成長趨勢。我記得您之前說過六月的下滑幅度在個位數中段。那麼，我們是否可以這樣理解：九月的成長幅度在個位數中段到高段？這樣理解成長曲線是否合理？

Yes, that's correct. September was, on a per day basis, was up 4% compared to last year. So we've seen continued positive momentum through the quarter.

是的，沒錯。 9月份的日均銷量比去年同期成長了4%。因此，我們看到本季持續保持著積極的成長勢頭。

Okay. And then just going back to the Financial -- FinCo business. It sounds like you kind of cleared the decks here a little bit with some inventory. So should we start to -- should we expect to start to see margin be up going forward? And do you think that, that can get back into that sort of 20% margin business next year?

好的。那我們再回到金融——也就是金融公司業務的話題。聽起來你們已經清理了一些庫存。那麼我們是否可以預期利潤率會開始上升？您認為明年利潤率能重回20%左右嗎？

It was really good to see the used truck inventory come down and selling a lot of used trucks. A lot of the used truck performance will depend on what the used truck market does in general. And in fact, our trucks get a nice premium, but we're also dependent on what our competitors are doing in that same marketplace.

看到二手卡車庫存下降，銷售量也大幅成長，真是令人欣喜。二手卡車的整體表現很大程度上取決於整個二手卡車市場的走勢。事實上，我們的卡車確實能獲得不錯的溢價，但我們也同樣依賴競爭對手在該市場上的表現。

Okay. If I could maybe just tuck in one last one. On the higher CapEx going forward, does any of that to include investments in your -- any of your suppliers? Or can you just talk about the health of the supply chain?

好的。我可以再問最後一個問題嗎？關於未來更高的資本支出，其中是否包括對貴公司供應商的投資？或者您能否談談供應鏈的健康狀況？

Sure. I'll be happy to take that one on and say that our supply chain has done a really good job as we've managed through the last couple of quarters, very dynamic. They've done a good job of pulling, as we're watching the build rates go up, across the world. They're supporting that very well. They're focused on health and safety for their employees, too. And the supply base is in good shape. And so that continues to be one of our great partnerships, is working with them and making sure they're ready as we go.

當然。我很樂意回答這個問題，而且我要說的是，在過去幾個季度裡，我們的供應鍊錶現非常出色，應對得非常靈活。隨著全球生產速度的提升，他們也很好地完成了任務，提供了強而有力的支持。他們也非常重視員工的健康和安全。而且，他們的供應基礎也十分穩固。因此，與他們保持密切合作，確保他們隨時做好準備，一直是我們最重要的合作夥伴關係之一。

As far as investments, we don't have anything specifically earmarked or called out in terms of investments and suppliers.

至於投資方面，我們目前還沒有任何特定的投資或供應商計畫。

Our next question comes from the line of Matt Elkott with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自考恩的馬特·埃爾科特。

If I may ask a question on the -- go back to that Class 8 build cycle, I think after the initial COVID shutdowns, we saw a number of dynamics emerge, lower fuel prices, lower interest rates and maybe truck insurance premiums, not as bad as they had been feared given the lower claims for insurance companies. Are we effectively basically pulling forward the cyclical expansion in Class 8 orders in North America and we could see somewhat of a moderation once we regain some sort of a post-COVID normalcy?

如果我可以問一個關於8級卡車建造週期的問題——回到之前的8級卡車建造週期，我認為在新冠疫情初期停工之後，我們看到了一些新的動態，例如燃油價格下降、利率下降，以及卡車保險費可能也沒有之前擔心的那麼糟糕，因為保險公司的索賠額減少了。我們是否實際上已經提前了北美8級卡車訂單的周期性擴張，並且一旦我們恢復到某種程度的後疫情時代常態，我們可能會看到訂單量有所放緩？

I think we just came off of the third quarter, which was a good quarter, but we think that there's a lot of room for the markets to continue to just gradually strengthen, depending on what happens in the general economy.

我認為我們剛剛結束了第三季度，這是一個不錯的季度，但我們認為市場還有很大的上漲空間，可以繼續逐步走強，這取決於整體經濟的發展。

Related to insurance and stuff, what I would share from our standpoint and play in that is we make sure that our trucks are able to be equipped with the latest in safety technologies to support low rates to make sure that our customers have vision systems and lane departure and those kinds of features that help our customers keep their drivers in the general public safe. That's where our focus is there. But I think it's a little early after just a month or 2 of goodness to start thinking about it being towards the top.

關於保險等方面，我想從我們的角度分享的是，我們確保我們的卡車配備最新的安全技術，以支持低費率，並確保我們的客戶擁有視覺系統、車道偏離預警等功能，從而幫助客戶保障其駕駛員和公眾的安全。這是我們關注的重點。但我認為，僅僅一兩個月的良好勢頭就談論它躋身行業頂尖行列還為時過早。

No, that's a fair point. And just one last quick question. Do you guys have any manufacturing facilities anywhere around the world that are currently at a higher risk of operational disruptions related to the ebbs and flows of shutdowns and re-shutdowns and COVID transmission?

沒錯，你說得有道理。最後一個問題。你們在全球各地是否有任何製造工廠目前面臨因停工停產和新冠病毒傳播而導致的營運中斷風險較高？

Matt, that's a good question. We spend a lot of time as a company making sure that health and safety is the #1, #2 and #3 priority for us. And all of our factories compare best practices and all of them are operating in a safe, healthy way. And so I don't see any greater risk in one place or the other because of the great job the operations teams have done around the world.

馬特，你問得好。我們公司投入大量時間，確保健康和安全始終是我們的第一、第二和第三優先事項。我們所有的工廠都會比較最佳實踐，而且所有工廠都在以安全、健康的方式運作。因此，我認為無論哪個地方，風險都是一樣的，這都歸功於全球營運團隊的出色工作。

Our next question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

So my question is just on the vocational segment. We've seen, obviously, COVID has done uncertain things to municipal budgets around the country. And then construction equipment has been a little bit weak. I don't know if you have an opinion on whether municipalities or related customers are more cautious in their purchasing or whether that recovery is proceeding along with everything else in trucks? And maybe a similar question for dump and other similar related markets to construction.

所以我的問題僅針對專業用途車輛領域。顯然，新冠疫情為全國各地的市政預算帶來了不確定性。建築設備市場也略顯疲軟。我想知道您是否認為市政當局或相關客戶在採購時更加謹慎，還是說這種復甦正在與其他卡車行業同步進行？或許也可以就傾卸車和其他與建築相關的市場提出類似的問題。

Sure thing. What we've seen is we're the leader in those segments with our great Peterbilt and Kenworth products and DAF products, do a great job of our customers. And I would say that the vocational market seems to be doing quite well. It's one of the places where people are spending money on their homes. They're putting index, doing whatever they're doing. And so there's a lot of shipment of goods for home improvement. There's a lot of construction still continuing. Housing starts are strong and so I think the sector is really doing pretty well. There's -- oil and gas is down. But in general, the total sector is doing really well.

當然。我們看到，憑藉我們出色的彼得比爾特、肯沃斯和達夫產品，我們在這些細分市場中處於領先地位，並為客戶提供了優質的服務。我認為，商用車市場似乎表現相當不錯。這是人們在家居方面投入資金的領域之一。他們進行各種投資，包括房屋裝修。因此，家居裝修用品的出貨量很大。建築工程仍在繼續。房屋開工量強勁，所以我認為這個行業整體表現非常出色。石油和天然氣產業有所下滑，但總體而言，整個產業表現良好。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe O'Dea with Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Joe O'Dea。

First question, it's good to hear that pricing has been pretty stable through the disruption this year. I'm interested in how you're thinking about the pricing opportunity next year as those build slots start to open up in the order book. Whether or not at a below replacement demand type of outlook, you see an opportunity to get price? Or if you think it's going to be more of a flattish kind of environment?

首先，很高興聽到今年價格在市場動盪中保持穩定。我想了解一下，隨著訂單量開始減少，您如何看待明年的價格波動？您是否認為在需求低於市場更新換代水準的情況下，存在價格談判的機會？還是您認為市場環境會比較平穩？

I think people's pricing expectations are always that we would like to see our trucks continue to provide great service. And as our trucks provide great service and low operating costs, they create a pricing premium for the PACCAR products, and that's kind of the way we think about it relative to this quarter. We'll see how the market develops as we look forward.

我認為人們對價格的預期始終是，我們希望我們的卡車能夠繼續提供卓越的服務。而我們的卡車之所以能夠提供卓越的服務和低營運成本，自然會為 PACCAR 產品帶來溢價，這也是我們本季對價格的考量。未來，我們將密切關注市場的發展。

And then on the fuel cell side of things with Toyota selecting Hino for a Class 8 hydrogen fuel cell truck in North America. Does that have any impact on what you've been doing on the hydrogen fuel cell work in collaboration with them?

另外，豐田選擇日野在北美生產8級氫燃料電池卡車，這是否會對您與他們合作的氫燃料電池工作產生任何影響？

No, it doesn't at all, right? I mean, Toyota is a great partner for us in developing these hydrogen fuel cell products, and it's not an exclusive thing. And it will need -- the hydrogen fuel cell market will need a lot of players and a lot of volume to make it commercially viable. So it's accretive to our business model with them.

不，完全不是這樣，對吧？我的意思是，豐田是我們開發氫燃料電池產品的重要合作夥伴，而且這並非獨家合作。氫燃料電池市場需要眾多參與者和龐大的市場規模才能商業化。因此，與他們合作對我們的商業模式是有益的。

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Uhlman with Cleveland Research.

我們的下一個問題來自克利夫蘭研究公司的亞當·烏爾曼。

I wanted to go back to -- I think at the beginning of the prepared remarks, you had talked about the order rates that you were seeing in North America. Could you tell us what the order intake in Europe was for the third quarter relative to last year?

我想回到您剛才的發言——我記得在您準備好的演講稿開頭，您談到了北美地區的訂單量。您能否告訴我們，與去年同期相比，歐洲第三季的訂單量是多少？

Quarter orders in Europe were up 6% compared to the third quarter of last year.

歐洲第三季訂單量比去年同期成長了6%。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then I guess, more broadly on -- we talked earlier about some of the key R&D spend going up into next year. I was wondering if you could spend some time talking about some key programs that would be new and different that are of meaningful size that are getting folded into the budget. And I assume some of the spend next year is also catch-up from this year. If you could maybe dimension that a little more because it is a relatively big increase relative to this year. I'm just trying to get at what that normalized rate would be over the medium term.

好的，太好了，這很有幫助。然後，我想更廣泛地談談——我們之前討論過一些關鍵研發支出將在明年增加。我想請您花點時間談談一些重要的、全新的、規模可觀的、已被納入預算的項目。我猜想明年的一些支出也是為了彌補今年的缺口。您能否更詳細地解釋一下，因為相對於今年來說，這是一個相當大的增幅。我只是想了解一下，從中長期來看，這個成長速度會是多少。

Well, we have some really exciting -- happy to do so. We have some really exciting truck programs that are ongoing right now that we'll develop further next year and will be looking forward to sharing those with you when we -- when its time is right. We have engine development programs going on with our high-performing diesel engine programs around the world. And then you add to that, the autonomy, connectivity and electrification efforts that our teams are working on and those are kind of the bulk of the work that we have outlined for next year and the coming years.

嗯，我們有一些非常令人興奮的項目——很高興能和大家分享。我們目前正在進行一些非常令人興奮的卡車項目，明年我們將進一步推進這些項目，並期待在合適的時機與大家分享。我們在全球範圍內開展高性能柴油引擎的研發項目。此外，我們的團隊也致力於自動駕駛、連網和電氣化方面的工作，這些都是我們為明年及未來幾年制定的主要工作計畫。

Our next question comes from the line of Rob Salmon with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rob Salmon。

A few kind of follow-up questions related to the fourth quarter gross margin outlook. Are you guys baking in kind of a similar aftermarket sales growth rate as you were seeing in September for the fourth quarter? Or is something different kind of baked in related to your outlook?

關於第四季毛利率展望，我有幾個後續問題。你們是否預期第四季售後市場銷售成長率將與9月份的預期大致相同？還是說你們的預期包含了其他因素？

The 12% to 13% gross margin, and like Preston said, it's that we're achieving the best margins in the industry. And we're -- we expect to be in that range despite a mix of more truck and -- or at least more Truck growth and Parts growth. I think you should think of Parts as being the same or a little bit up compared to last year in the fourth quarter.

毛利率在12%到13%之間，正如普雷斯頓所說，我們實現了業界最高的毛利率。儘管卡車業務成長，或至少卡車和零件業務的成長，我們預計毛利率仍將維持在這個範圍內。我認為，零件業務在第四季度應該與去年同期持平或略有成長。

That's helpful. And then the comments that you guys had mentioned about sequential growth in deliveries, was that -- it sounded to me like it was more of a comment related to deliveries per day. Would the comment about sequential growth on an absolute level relative to third quarter deliveries in U.S., Canada apply? Or is it too early to tell on that front?

這很有幫助。你們之前提到的交付量較上月成長，聽起來更像是指日交付量。那麼，相對於美國和加拿大第三季的交付量，環比成長的絕對值是否也適用呢？還是現在下結論還為時過早？

The comment on 10% higher truck deliveries was on the total number, not on a per day number.

關於卡車運輸量增加 10% 的評論是指總數，而不是每天的數量。

It was the comment you had made that you would see growth across all segments is what I was alluding to in the prepared remarks. Perhaps I misheard that comment, but I was just curious if -- go ahead.

我準備的發言稿裡提到的就是您之前說過的所有領域都會成長。也許我聽錯了，但我只是好奇——請繼續。

We're taking build rates up in all our markets. So the increased build rates applies to all our factories. But we do have fewer working days in North America in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter and more in Europe, which is the case every year.

我們在所有市場都提高了產能。因此，產能提升適用於我們所有的工廠。但與第三季相比，北美地區第四季的工作日有所減少，而歐洲地區的工作日則有所增加，這種情況每年都會發生。

Okay. And then the final question I had is related to the charging infrastructure. When you think about historical returns in your Financial Services segment, how should we think about kind of charging infrastructure returns on the investment that you would expect to achieve relative to the broader financial services service?

好的。最後一個問題與充電基礎設施有關。考慮到貴公司金融服務板塊的歷史回報，我們應該如何看待充電基礎設施投資相對於整體金融服務而言的預期回報？

I would say you could expect at this point to think of them in a similar fashion.

我認為，從現在開始，你應該會以類似的方式看待它們。

Our next question comes from the line of Courtney Yakavonis with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Courtney Yakavonis。

Maybe just following up on that question. Could you just share with us how to think about the sequential increase in deliveries between U.S. and Canada versus Europe for the fourth quarter?

或許我想就這個問題做個後續探討。您能否和我們分享一下，如何看待第四季度美國和加拿大之間的貨物交付量與歐洲之間的交付量環比增長？

Well, one way to think of it is that, Harrie outlined it really well, is think about the build days. What I would rather say is there's build rates. Daily build rates are going up in all markets in fairly good manners, and we think that, that could continue. And so that's the easiest way to think about it without getting conflicted about the number of build days in the quarter. So build rates are up, markets are improving. Trucks are doing really well. And we think we've got a good look at the future coming towards us.

嗯，哈里已經很好地闡述過，我們可以這樣理解：先考慮生產天數。但我更傾向於說，要關註生產力。所有市場的日均生產力都在穩定上升，我們認為這種趨勢會持續下去。所以，這是最簡單的理解方式，可以避免糾結於季度生產天數。總之，生產力上升了，市場正在好轉，卡車市場表現非常好。我們認為，我們對未來的發展前景有著清楚的認知。

Okay. Got you. And then maybe just on the Parts growth. I think you had commented thinking that it will probably be slightly up in the fourth quarter. I think you had previously talked about a lot of deferred maintenance that was happening at this point. Do you feel like that's most -- that's largely caught up and there's not much more deferred maintenance? And then if you can also just give us a sense of the e-commerce platform. I think you had said it was up 20% in the first half of the year. Are you still seeing those levels in the third quarter and into the fourth?

好的，明白了。接下來我想談談零件業務的成長。我記得您之前說過，第四季零件業務可能會略有成長。您之前也提到過，目前有許多積壓的維護工作正在進行中。您覺得這些積壓的維護工作現在基本上都完成了嗎？應該沒有太多其他的積壓維護工作了吧？另外，您能否也簡單介紹一下電商平台的狀況？我記得您說過，上半年電商平台成長了20%。您認為第三季和第四季還能維持這個成長水準嗎？

I think the way to think about the Parts business right now is that there is strong truckload business around the country, truckload, vocational. All those markets are doing well. When trucks are running, they consume parts. So that's what's happening mostly. So that's why -- that's one of the reasons the Parts business is doing good. And the other is, as we mentioned, we've got great distribution capabilities, which means we're getting an increasing share of the market, the Parts business. The team's done a fantastic job not just with proprietary parts, but with all make parts as well, our TRP brands around the world. So that's contributing to the growth.

我認為目前看待零件業務的關鍵在於，全國各地的整車運輸業務，包括整車運輸和專用車輛運輸，都非常強勁。所有這些市場都發展良好。卡車行駛時，就需要消耗零件。這就是目前的情況。這也是零件業務表現良好的原因之一。另一個原因是，正如我們之前提到的，我們擁有強大的分銷能力，這意味著我們在零件市場中的份額正在不斷增長。團隊不僅在自有零件方面做得非常出色，而且在所有零件方面也表現出色，包括我們遍布全球的TRP品牌。這些都是推動業務成長的重要因素。

And then the e-commerce programs that we have put in place or they put in place are just fantastic also, right? They just -- they help make it easier to buy parts through PACCAR. And that's what the team is always focused on is making our customers' lives easier and doing a great job in providing that transportation solution for them. They're really nailing it.

而且我們推出的或是他們推出的電商專案也棒極了，對吧？它們讓透過 PACCAR 購買零件變得更加方便。團隊始終致力於讓客戶的生活更輕鬆，並為他們提供出色的運輸解決方案。他們做得非常出色。

Got you. That's helpful. And then just lastly, just a follow-up to the comments about the Toyota-Hino partnership. Can you just help us kind of understand when we're thinking about hydrogen fuel cell trucks how much of it is the design of the truck versus the fuel cell provider that really is going to dictate the difference in performance just based on the different prototypes that you have out there? And are you guys also considering other fuel cell providers in addition to Toyota?

明白了，這很有幫助。最後，我想就豐田和日野的合作問題再補充一點。能否請您幫我們理解一下，在考慮氫燃料電池卡車時，卡車的設計以及燃料電池供應商，究竟在多大程度上決定了性能差異？就目前你們所展示的不同原型車而言，性能差異究竟是由卡車的設計決定的？除了豐田之外，你們是否也在考慮其他燃料電池供應商？

Sure. I would think about it as the fuel cell is a critical part of the business. The truck is a critical part of the business. The integration of the 2 is a critical part of the business. Supporting them in the field is a critical part of the business, the distribution. All that matters. And so we're paying attention to all elements of that. And I guess, to your other question is, yes, we are always looking for the great partners to work with. Toyota is a great partner. We're working with partners on battery-electric and we're always looking for the right people to be partnered with to make sure our customers get the premium trucks we provide.

當然。我會這樣看待這個問題：燃料電池是業務的關鍵組成部分，卡車也是業務的關鍵組成部分，兩者的整合同樣至關重要。現場支援和分銷也是業務的關鍵組成部分。所有這些都非常重要。因此，我們關注著所有這些環節。至於你的另一個問題，是的，我們一直在尋找優秀的合作夥伴。豐田就是一個很好的合作夥伴。我們正在與合作夥伴共同研發純電動車，並且一直在尋找合適的合作夥伴，以確保我們的客戶能夠獲得我們提供的優質卡車。

There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有其他補充說明嗎？

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call, and thank you, operator.

感謝各位參與通話，也謝謝接線生。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，PACCAR的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您可以斷開連線了。